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000
FXUS63 KUNR 232340
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
440 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PHASING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGHS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STOUT SFC
PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE MIDWEST...AND RAPID CYCLOGENESIS THERE.
BACKSIDE LL CAA AND ISOBARIC ADJUSTMENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA...WHICH WILL BE THE CASE
INTO THE EVENING. ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
POCKET COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING HAS SUPPORTED A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH UPSLOPE FORCING SUPPORTING MORE
PERSISTENT ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. ACTIVE NW FLOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER COMPACT SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION...WHICH
WILL RIDE NEAR THE LL BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTLING JUST SW OF THE FA.
THIS WILL CREATE A WESTERN SHIFT IN THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE
TRACK...SUPPORTING PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
MONDAY. COLDER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THE FA WILL MAINLY
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE LL FRONTAL ZONE.

TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE DECENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH SOME
LL DRYING THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A WANE IN ANY SNOW SHRA
ACTIVITY...ESP THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
MOST OF THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW ADV CRITERIA THIS EVENING.
STRONGEST WINDS AND BEST DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT HAS OCCURRED
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...HENCE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE HWW AND
REPLACE WITH AN ADV. THE NEXT IMPULSE IN ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL
ARRIVE TOWARD DAWN...SUPPORTING A WEAK FGEN RESPONSE. HAVE
CONTINUED AN UPTICK IN POPS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCES
FOR SNOW INCREASING ACROSS NE WY.

MONDAY...COMPACT SW TROUGH WILL ADVECT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
FA...SUPPORTING RENEWED FGEN WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW WESTERN HALF.
OVERALL...CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LOW OUTSIDE OF THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND PORTIONS OF NE WY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS
GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WELL SW OF THE
FA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
UPSLOPE FORCING WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND 20-30 KNOTS OF FLOW
IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND FROUDE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DECENT
SETUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ACCUMS IN THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS...WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM THE BEAR
LODGE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND CHEYENNE CROSSING. ANY SNOW ACCUMS OUTSIDE
OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...STRONGEST OVER NE WY GIVEN
PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET WITH THE PASSING IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MIDWEEK. SEVERAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE THROUGH...BRINGING A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS
AREA...WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VERY
DIFFICULT TIME SETTLING ON A CONSISTENT SOLUTION FROM THANKSGIVING
DAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES
PERSIST...WITH THE LATEST 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH
WARMER FOR LATE THIS WEEK...WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL STILL ON THE
COLDER SIDE. WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE OF A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR
NOW AND KEEP IT COLDER THAN LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE. IT STILL LOOKS
MAINLY DRY FROM THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS DO LOOK POSSIBLE THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT IF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAPPENS TO BE IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHSN/MVFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWEST
SD...THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHSN OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS STARTING VERY LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST WY INTO
WESTERN SD WHERE -SN DEVELOPS LASTING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-
     002-012>014-025>027-031-032-041-043-044-046-047-049-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...HELGESON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 232142
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
242 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PHASING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGHS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT STOUT SFC PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE MIDWEST...AND
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS THERE. BACKSIDE LL CAA AND ISOBARIC ADJUSTMENT
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA...WHICH
WILL BE THE CASE INTO THE EVENING. ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING HAS SUPPORTED A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH UPSLOPE FORCING SUPPORTING
MORE PERSISTENT ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. ACTIVE NW FLOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER COMPACT SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL
RIDE NEAR THE LL BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTLING JUST SW OF THE FA. THIS
WILL CREATE A WESTERN SHIFT IN THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE
TRACK...SUPPORTING PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
MONDAY. COLDER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THE FA WILL MAINLY REMAIN
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE LL FRONTAL ZONE.

TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE DECENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH SOME
LL DRYING THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A WANE IN ANY SNOW SHRA
ACTIVITY...ESP THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
MOST OF THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW ADV CRITERIA THIS EVENING.
STRONGEST WINDS AND BEST DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT HAS OCCURRED
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...HENCE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE HWW AND
REPLACE WITH AN ADV. THE NEXT IMPULSE IN ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL
ARRIVE TOWARD DAWN...SUPPORTING A WEAK FGEN RESPONSE. HAVE
CONTINUED AN UPTICK IN POPS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCES
FOR SNOW INCREASING ACROSS NE WY.

MONDAY...COMPACT SW TROUGH WILL ADVECT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
FA...SUPPORTING RENEWED FGEN WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW WESTERN HALF.
OVERALL...CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LOW OUTSIDE OF THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND PORTIONS OF NE WY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS
GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WELL SW OF THE
FA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
UPSLOPE FORCING WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND 20-30 KNOTS OF FLOW
IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND FROUDE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DECENT
SETUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ACCUMS IN THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS...WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM THE BEAR
LODGE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND CHEYENNE CROSSING. ANY SNOW ACCUMS OUTSIDE
OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...STRONGEST OVER NE WY GIVEN
PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET WITH THE PASSING IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MIDWEEK.
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE
THROUGH...BRINGING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT TIMES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA...WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VERY
DIFFICULT TIME SETTLING ON A CONSISTENT SOLUTION FROM THANKSGIVING
DAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES
PERSIST...WITH THE LATEST 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH
WARMER FOR LATE THIS WEEK...WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL STILL ON THE
COLDER SIDE. WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE OF A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR
NOW AND KEEP IT COLDER THAN LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE. IT STILL LOOKS
MAINLY DRY FROM THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS DO LOOK POSSIBLE THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT IF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAPPENS TO BE IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON...STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD
PLAINS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER 00Z. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHSN/MVFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWEST SD...THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCED
SHSN OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-
     002-012>014-025>027-031-032-041-043-044-046-047-049-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 232128
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
228 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PHASING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGHS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT STOUT SFC PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE MIDWEST...AND
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS THERE. BACKSIDE LL CAA AND ISOBARIC ADJUSTMENT
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA...WHICH
WILL BE THE CASE INTO THE EVENING. ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING HAS SUPPORTED A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH UPSLOPE FORCING SUPPORTING
MORE PERSISTENT ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. ACTIVE NW FLOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER COMPACT SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL
RIDE NEAR THE LL BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTLING JUST SW OF THE FA. THIS
WILL CREATE A WESTERN SHIFT IN THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE
TRACK...SUPPORTING PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
MONDAY. COLDER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THE FA WILL MAINLY REMAIN
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE LL FRONTAL ZONE.

TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE DECENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH SOME
LL DRYING THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A WANE IN ANY SNOW SHRA
ACTIVITY...ESP THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
MOST OF THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW ADV CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WILL
LET CURRENT HEADLINES RIDE. THE NEXT IMPULSE IN ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL
ARRIVE TOWARD DAWN...SUPPORTING A WEAK FGEN RESPONSE. HAVE CONTINUED
AN UPTICK IN POPS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW
INCREASING ACROSS NE WY.

MONDAY...COMPACT SW TROUGH WILL ADVECT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
FA...SUPPORTING RENEWED FGEN WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW WESTERN HALF.
OVERALL...CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LOW OUTSIDE OF THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND PORTIONS OF NE WY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS
GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WELL SW OF THE
FA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
UPSLOPE FORCING WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND 20-30 KNOTS OF FLOW
IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND FROUDE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DECENT
SETUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ACCUMS IN THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS...WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM THE BEAR
LODGE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND CHEYENNE CROSSING. ANY SNOW ACCUMS OUTSIDE
OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...STRONGEST OVER NE WY GIVEN
PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET WITH THE PASSING IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MIDWEEK.
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE
THROUGH...BRINGING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT TIMES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA...WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VERY
DIFFICULT TIME SETTLING ON A CONSISTENT SOLUTION FROM THANKSGIVING
DAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES
PERSIST...WITH THE LATEST 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH
WARMER FOR LATE THIS WEEK...WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL STILL ON THE
COLDER SIDE. WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE OF A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR
NOW AND KEEP IT COLDER THAN LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE. IT STILL LOOKS
MAINLY DRY FROM THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS DO LOOK POSSIBLE THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT IF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAPPENS TO BE IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON...STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD
PLAINS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER 00Z. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHSN/MVFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWEST SD...THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCED
SHSN OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ014-
     025-027-032-041-043-044-046-047-049.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS63 KUNR 232128
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
228 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PHASING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGHS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT STOUT SFC PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE MIDWEST...AND
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS THERE. BACKSIDE LL CAA AND ISOBARIC ADJUSTMENT
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA...WHICH
WILL BE THE CASE INTO THE EVENING. ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING HAS SUPPORTED A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH UPSLOPE FORCING SUPPORTING
MORE PERSISTENT ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. ACTIVE NW FLOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER COMPACT SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL
RIDE NEAR THE LL BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTLING JUST SW OF THE FA. THIS
WILL CREATE A WESTERN SHIFT IN THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE
TRACK...SUPPORTING PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
MONDAY. COLDER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THE FA WILL MAINLY REMAIN
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE LL FRONTAL ZONE.

TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE DECENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH SOME
LL DRYING THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A WANE IN ANY SNOW SHRA
ACTIVITY...ESP THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
MOST OF THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW ADV CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WILL
LET CURRENT HEADLINES RIDE. THE NEXT IMPULSE IN ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL
ARRIVE TOWARD DAWN...SUPPORTING A WEAK FGEN RESPONSE. HAVE CONTINUED
AN UPTICK IN POPS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW
INCREASING ACROSS NE WY.

MONDAY...COMPACT SW TROUGH WILL ADVECT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
FA...SUPPORTING RENEWED FGEN WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW WESTERN HALF.
OVERALL...CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LOW OUTSIDE OF THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND PORTIONS OF NE WY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS
GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WELL SW OF THE
FA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
UPSLOPE FORCING WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND 20-30 KNOTS OF FLOW
IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND FROUDE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DECENT
SETUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ACCUMS IN THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS...WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM THE BEAR
LODGE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND CHEYENNE CROSSING. ANY SNOW ACCUMS OUTSIDE
OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...STRONGEST OVER NE WY GIVEN
PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET WITH THE PASSING IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MIDWEEK.
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE
THROUGH...BRINGING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT TIMES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA...WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VERY
DIFFICULT TIME SETTLING ON A CONSISTENT SOLUTION FROM THANKSGIVING
DAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES
PERSIST...WITH THE LATEST 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH
WARMER FOR LATE THIS WEEK...WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL STILL ON THE
COLDER SIDE. WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE OF A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR
NOW AND KEEP IT COLDER THAN LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE. IT STILL LOOKS
MAINLY DRY FROM THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS DO LOOK POSSIBLE THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT IF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAPPENS TO BE IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON...STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD
PLAINS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER 00Z. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHSN/MVFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWEST SD...THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCED
SHSN OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ014-
     025-027-032-041-043-044-046-047-049.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 232128
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
228 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PHASING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGHS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT STOUT SFC PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE MIDWEST...AND
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS THERE. BACKSIDE LL CAA AND ISOBARIC ADJUSTMENT
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA...WHICH
WILL BE THE CASE INTO THE EVENING. ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING HAS SUPPORTED A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH UPSLOPE FORCING SUPPORTING
MORE PERSISTENT ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. ACTIVE NW FLOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER COMPACT SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL
RIDE NEAR THE LL BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTLING JUST SW OF THE FA. THIS
WILL CREATE A WESTERN SHIFT IN THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE
TRACK...SUPPORTING PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
MONDAY. COLDER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THE FA WILL MAINLY REMAIN
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE LL FRONTAL ZONE.

TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE DECENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH SOME
LL DRYING THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A WANE IN ANY SNOW SHRA
ACTIVITY...ESP THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
MOST OF THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW ADV CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WILL
LET CURRENT HEADLINES RIDE. THE NEXT IMPULSE IN ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL
ARRIVE TOWARD DAWN...SUPPORTING A WEAK FGEN RESPONSE. HAVE CONTINUED
AN UPTICK IN POPS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW
INCREASING ACROSS NE WY.

MONDAY...COMPACT SW TROUGH WILL ADVECT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
FA...SUPPORTING RENEWED FGEN WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW WESTERN HALF.
OVERALL...CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LOW OUTSIDE OF THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND PORTIONS OF NE WY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS
GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WELL SW OF THE
FA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
UPSLOPE FORCING WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND 20-30 KNOTS OF FLOW
IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND FROUDE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DECENT
SETUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ACCUMS IN THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS...WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM THE BEAR
LODGE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND CHEYENNE CROSSING. ANY SNOW ACCUMS OUTSIDE
OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...STRONGEST OVER NE WY GIVEN
PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET WITH THE PASSING IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MIDWEEK.
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE
THROUGH...BRINGING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT TIMES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA...WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VERY
DIFFICULT TIME SETTLING ON A CONSISTENT SOLUTION FROM THANKSGIVING
DAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES
PERSIST...WITH THE LATEST 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH
WARMER FOR LATE THIS WEEK...WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL STILL ON THE
COLDER SIDE. WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE OF A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR
NOW AND KEEP IT COLDER THAN LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE. IT STILL LOOKS
MAINLY DRY FROM THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS DO LOOK POSSIBLE THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT IF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAPPENS TO BE IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON...STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD
PLAINS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER 00Z. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHSN/MVFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWEST SD...THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCED
SHSN OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ014-
     025-027-032-041-043-044-046-047-049.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS63 KUNR 232128
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
228 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PHASING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGHS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT STOUT SFC PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE MIDWEST...AND
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS THERE. BACKSIDE LL CAA AND ISOBARIC ADJUSTMENT
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA...WHICH
WILL BE THE CASE INTO THE EVENING. ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING HAS SUPPORTED A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH UPSLOPE FORCING SUPPORTING
MORE PERSISTENT ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. ACTIVE NW FLOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER COMPACT SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL
RIDE NEAR THE LL BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTLING JUST SW OF THE FA. THIS
WILL CREATE A WESTERN SHIFT IN THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE
TRACK...SUPPORTING PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
MONDAY. COLDER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THE FA WILL MAINLY REMAIN
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE LL FRONTAL ZONE.

TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE DECENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH SOME
LL DRYING THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A WANE IN ANY SNOW SHRA
ACTIVITY...ESP THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
MOST OF THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW ADV CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WILL
LET CURRENT HEADLINES RIDE. THE NEXT IMPULSE IN ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL
ARRIVE TOWARD DAWN...SUPPORTING A WEAK FGEN RESPONSE. HAVE CONTINUED
AN UPTICK IN POPS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW
INCREASING ACROSS NE WY.

MONDAY...COMPACT SW TROUGH WILL ADVECT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
FA...SUPPORTING RENEWED FGEN WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW WESTERN HALF.
OVERALL...CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LOW OUTSIDE OF THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND PORTIONS OF NE WY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS
GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WELL SW OF THE
FA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
UPSLOPE FORCING WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND 20-30 KNOTS OF FLOW
IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND FROUDE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DECENT
SETUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ACCUMS IN THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS...WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM THE BEAR
LODGE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND CHEYENNE CROSSING. ANY SNOW ACCUMS OUTSIDE
OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...STRONGEST OVER NE WY GIVEN
PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET WITH THE PASSING IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MIDWEEK.
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE
THROUGH...BRINGING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT TIMES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA...WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VERY
DIFFICULT TIME SETTLING ON A CONSISTENT SOLUTION FROM THANKSGIVING
DAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES
PERSIST...WITH THE LATEST 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH
WARMER FOR LATE THIS WEEK...WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL STILL ON THE
COLDER SIDE. WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE OF A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR
NOW AND KEEP IT COLDER THAN LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE. IT STILL LOOKS
MAINLY DRY FROM THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS DO LOOK POSSIBLE THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT IF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAPPENS TO BE IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON...STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD
PLAINS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER 00Z. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHSN/MVFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWEST SD...THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCED
SHSN OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ014-
     025-027-032-041-043-044-046-047-049.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 231722
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1022 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AT 08Z THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAD ALMOST COMPLETELY
MOVED OUT OF THE EASTERN EXTREMITIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE
NE-SW BAND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE
MAIN UPPER VORTICITY LOBE.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT THIS
BEING MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP AT THIS TIME.  IR SATLT IMAGERY SEEMS TO
INDICATE THERE IS PROBABLY SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING WHICH ISN`T SHOWING UP
ON RADAR IMAGERY BECAUSE THE TOPS ARE TOO LOW.

TODAY...THIS INSTABILITY PRECIP RESULTING FROM COLD ADVECTION ALOFT
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND FILL IN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PRECIP BY MID MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLKHLS. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE
THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT AND WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED BEWEEN 18Z AND 21Z OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND NORTH
AND NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN A FAIRLY CONSTANT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK MID OR UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES CROSSING THE REGION. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND.  MONDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHNG
THE LOW TO MID 30S MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE
THROUGH...BRINGING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT
TIME SETTLING ON THE FORECAST FROM THANKSGIVING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS HAS GONE BACK TO A WARMER SOLUTION WHILE THE
ECM IS MUCH COLDER. THE ECM IS ALSO SHOWING SNOW LINGERING THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WRN 2/3 OF
THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT WILL NOT ADD ANYMORE POPS PAST 00Z
FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...STRONGEST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SOME GUSTS
TO NEAR 50 KTS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER
00Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHSN/MVFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHWEST SD...THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WY THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHSN OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ014-
     025-027-032-041-043-044-046-047-049.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CARPENTER
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS63 KUNR 231722
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1022 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AT 08Z THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAD ALMOST COMPLETELY
MOVED OUT OF THE EASTERN EXTREMITIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE
NE-SW BAND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE
MAIN UPPER VORTICITY LOBE.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT THIS
BEING MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP AT THIS TIME.  IR SATLT IMAGERY SEEMS TO
INDICATE THERE IS PROBABLY SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING WHICH ISN`T SHOWING UP
ON RADAR IMAGERY BECAUSE THE TOPS ARE TOO LOW.

TODAY...THIS INSTABILITY PRECIP RESULTING FROM COLD ADVECTION ALOFT
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND FILL IN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PRECIP BY MID MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLKHLS. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE
THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT AND WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED BEWEEN 18Z AND 21Z OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND NORTH
AND NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN A FAIRLY CONSTANT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK MID OR UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES CROSSING THE REGION. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND.  MONDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHNG
THE LOW TO MID 30S MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE
THROUGH...BRINGING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT
TIME SETTLING ON THE FORECAST FROM THANKSGIVING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS HAS GONE BACK TO A WARMER SOLUTION WHILE THE
ECM IS MUCH COLDER. THE ECM IS ALSO SHOWING SNOW LINGERING THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WRN 2/3 OF
THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT WILL NOT ADD ANYMORE POPS PAST 00Z
FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...STRONGEST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SOME GUSTS
TO NEAR 50 KTS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER
00Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHSN/MVFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHWEST SD...THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WY THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHSN OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ014-
     025-027-032-041-043-044-046-047-049.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CARPENTER
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS63 KUNR 230927
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
227 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AT 08Z THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAD ALMOST COMPLETELY
MOVED OUT OF THE EASTERN EXTREMITIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE
NE-SW BAND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE
MAIN UPPER VORTICITY LOBE.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT THIS
BEING MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP AT THIS TIME.  IR SATLT IMAGERY SEEMS TO
INDICATE THERE IS PROBABLY SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING WHICH ISN`T SHOWING UP
ON RADAR IMAGERY BECAUSE THE TOPS ARE TOO LOW.

TODAY...THIS INSTABILITY PRECIP RESULTING FROM COLD ADVECTION ALOFT
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND FILL IN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PRECIP BY MID MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLKHLS. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE
THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT AND WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED BEWEEN 18Z AND 21Z OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND NORTH
AND NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN A FAIRLY CONSTANT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK MID OR UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES CROSSING THE REGION. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND.  MONDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHNG
THE LOW TO MID 30S MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE
THROUGH...BRINGING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT
TIME SETTLING ON THE FORECAST FROM THANKSGIVING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS HAS GONE BACK TO A WARMER SOLUTION WHILE THE
ECM IS MUCH COLDER. THE ECM IS ALSO SHOWING SNOW LINGERING THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WRN 2/3 OF
THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT WILL NOT ADD ANYMORE POPS PAST 00Z
FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NW/WCNTRL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. SHSN/MVFR CIGS ARE MOST
LIKELY ACROSS NW SD...THE BLKHLS...AND PORTIONS OF NE WY. LOCALIZED
IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHSN OVER THE NRN BLKHLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST
     /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ014-025-027-032-041-043-044-
     046-047-049.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CARPENTER
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KUNR 230927
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
227 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AT 08Z THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAD ALMOST COMPLETELY
MOVED OUT OF THE EASTERN EXTREMITIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE
NE-SW BAND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE
MAIN UPPER VORTICITY LOBE.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT THIS
BEING MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP AT THIS TIME.  IR SATLT IMAGERY SEEMS TO
INDICATE THERE IS PROBABLY SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING WHICH ISN`T SHOWING UP
ON RADAR IMAGERY BECAUSE THE TOPS ARE TOO LOW.

TODAY...THIS INSTABILITY PRECIP RESULTING FROM COLD ADVECTION ALOFT
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND FILL IN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PRECIP BY MID MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLKHLS. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE
THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT AND WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED BEWEEN 18Z AND 21Z OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND NORTH
AND NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN A FAIRLY CONSTANT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK MID OR UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES CROSSING THE REGION. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND.  MONDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHNG
THE LOW TO MID 30S MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE
THROUGH...BRINGING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT
TIME SETTLING ON THE FORECAST FROM THANKSGIVING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS HAS GONE BACK TO A WARMER SOLUTION WHILE THE
ECM IS MUCH COLDER. THE ECM IS ALSO SHOWING SNOW LINGERING THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WRN 2/3 OF
THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT WILL NOT ADD ANYMORE POPS PAST 00Z
FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NW/WCNTRL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. SHSN/MVFR CIGS ARE MOST
LIKELY ACROSS NW SD...THE BLKHLS...AND PORTIONS OF NE WY. LOCALIZED
IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHSN OVER THE NRN BLKHLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST
     /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ014-025-027-032-041-043-044-
     046-047-049.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CARPENTER
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13








000
FXUS63 KUNR 230526
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1026 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW NEAR CYQR WITH COLD FRONT TO KRAP TO
SOUTH CENTRAL WY. COUPLE OF HOURS OF GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT AS WELL AS SOME -SHRASN. 00Z KUNR SOUNDING SHOWS LIFT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST MT BEING WASTED ON SATURATION
EARLIER THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR/OBSERVATIONS DO SUGGEST LOWER
TROPOSPHERE MOISTENING ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE
GROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST SD SO HAVE RAISED POPS THERE.

00Z GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS VERY WINDY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER INDICATES HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA WINDS FROM K2WX TO KRAP DURING PEAK MIXING LATER SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IN CONTRAST TO LESSER MOS
GUIDANCE WINDS. 40-50KT 850MB WINDS NOTED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES HIGHER UP. STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED BEHIND TONIGHT/S
SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING.
WILL CONVERT WATCH TO WARNING AND EXPAND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS A BIT
WITH UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

DEEPENING NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA...WITH
CHANCES FOR SNOW AND INCREASING WINDS. THERMAL RIDGE HAS SUPPORTED
A MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA...ESP WHERE ENHANCED LOCAL MIXING HAS
OCCURRED. HOWEVER...INCREASING LSA WITH A LL COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT A WEAK FGEN BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL THEN SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FORCING OVER THE
NORTHERN HILLS. ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL SUSTAIN THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE WESTERN FA
LATE SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SPLITTING NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A WEAK HIGH
CENTERED FGEN RESPONSE OVER THE REGION WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING UVM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...ESP NE WY WHERE BETTER FORCING
FOR ACCENT WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN THIS EVENING...QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT GIVEN
COOLING THERMAL FIELDS. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
ONE INCH. LL FLOW WILL VEER NW TONIGHT AND INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
INITIAL CAA PUSH AND PRESSURE RISES MAY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF NEAR ADV
WINDS AROUND KRAP AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN TAME UNTIL LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...SECONDARY CAA PUSH AND INCREASING LL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. MEAN BL FLOW PROGS SUPPORT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS ESP ACROSS FAR NW SD. BUFR PROGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS OF 50 KNOTS TO MIX DOWN...ESP WITH THE SECONDARY
PRESSURE RISE SURGE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NW. IN
ADDITION...COLD POCKET ALOFT COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH LOCAL ENHANCED
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY SHOWER.
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADV FOR MUCH OF THE SD
PLAINS...RETAINING A HIGH WIND WATCH ACROSS THE FAR NW WHERE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT OF 50 KNOT FLOW WILL
RESIDE. MEAN MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUPPORTED SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WOULD LIKE TO HAVE ANOTHER FORECAST RUN OR TWO
TO SEE IF THIS TREND SUSTAINS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS ALONG THE PLAINS OF THE EASTERN BLACK
HILLS...INCLUDING RAPID CITY...WITH NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LOW POTENTIAL/SHORT DURATION/AND LOCALIZED
NATURE...FEEL A WIND ADV IS MORE PRUDENT. THE OTHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
BE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...MAINLY FROM THE BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS TO
CHEYENNE CROSSING. INCREASING FROUDE/MOISTURE/AND FLOW WITH COOLING
THERMAL FIELDS IN STEEP LL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A DECENT PERIOD
OF UPSLOPE FORCING...EXTENDING INTO THE DGZ. 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. SNOW WILL WIND
DOWN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE BL DRIES. HOWEVER...AS SECONDARY IMPULSE
WILL LEAD TO RENEWED CHANCES FOR SNOW...MAINLY NE WY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL
WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE THROUGH...BRINGING
A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
CANADIAN HAVE ALL FLIPPED BACK TO A COLDER REGIME FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL TREND COLDER AGAIN FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY AND THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...BUT UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO TEMPS. IT DOES CONTINUE TO LOOK MAINLY
DRY DURING THE PERIOD THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BEHIND IT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST SD PLAINS. LOCAL MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...WITH SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL LOCAL MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR SUNDAY WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ014-025-027-032-041-043-044-046-047-049.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012-013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 230526
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1026 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW NEAR CYQR WITH COLD FRONT TO KRAP TO
SOUTH CENTRAL WY. COUPLE OF HOURS OF GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT AS WELL AS SOME -SHRASN. 00Z KUNR SOUNDING SHOWS LIFT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST MT BEING WASTED ON SATURATION
EARLIER THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR/OBSERVATIONS DO SUGGEST LOWER
TROPOSPHERE MOISTENING ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE
GROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST SD SO HAVE RAISED POPS THERE.

00Z GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS VERY WINDY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER INDICATES HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA WINDS FROM K2WX TO KRAP DURING PEAK MIXING LATER SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IN CONTRAST TO LESSER MOS
GUIDANCE WINDS. 40-50KT 850MB WINDS NOTED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES HIGHER UP. STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED BEHIND TONIGHT/S
SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING.
WILL CONVERT WATCH TO WARNING AND EXPAND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS A BIT
WITH UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

DEEPENING NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA...WITH
CHANCES FOR SNOW AND INCREASING WINDS. THERMAL RIDGE HAS SUPPORTED
A MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA...ESP WHERE ENHANCED LOCAL MIXING HAS
OCCURRED. HOWEVER...INCREASING LSA WITH A LL COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT A WEAK FGEN BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL THEN SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FORCING OVER THE
NORTHERN HILLS. ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL SUSTAIN THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE WESTERN FA
LATE SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SPLITTING NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A WEAK HIGH
CENTERED FGEN RESPONSE OVER THE REGION WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING UVM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...ESP NE WY WHERE BETTER FORCING
FOR ACCENT WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN THIS EVENING...QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT GIVEN
COOLING THERMAL FIELDS. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
ONE INCH. LL FLOW WILL VEER NW TONIGHT AND INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
INITIAL CAA PUSH AND PRESSURE RISES MAY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF NEAR ADV
WINDS AROUND KRAP AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN TAME UNTIL LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...SECONDARY CAA PUSH AND INCREASING LL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. MEAN BL FLOW PROGS SUPPORT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS ESP ACROSS FAR NW SD. BUFR PROGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS OF 50 KNOTS TO MIX DOWN...ESP WITH THE SECONDARY
PRESSURE RISE SURGE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NW. IN
ADDITION...COLD POCKET ALOFT COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH LOCAL ENHANCED
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY SHOWER.
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADV FOR MUCH OF THE SD
PLAINS...RETAINING A HIGH WIND WATCH ACROSS THE FAR NW WHERE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT OF 50 KNOT FLOW WILL
RESIDE. MEAN MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUPPORTED SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WOULD LIKE TO HAVE ANOTHER FORECAST RUN OR TWO
TO SEE IF THIS TREND SUSTAINS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS ALONG THE PLAINS OF THE EASTERN BLACK
HILLS...INCLUDING RAPID CITY...WITH NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LOW POTENTIAL/SHORT DURATION/AND LOCALIZED
NATURE...FEEL A WIND ADV IS MORE PRUDENT. THE OTHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
BE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...MAINLY FROM THE BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS TO
CHEYENNE CROSSING. INCREASING FROUDE/MOISTURE/AND FLOW WITH COOLING
THERMAL FIELDS IN STEEP LL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A DECENT PERIOD
OF UPSLOPE FORCING...EXTENDING INTO THE DGZ. 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. SNOW WILL WIND
DOWN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE BL DRIES. HOWEVER...AS SECONDARY IMPULSE
WILL LEAD TO RENEWED CHANCES FOR SNOW...MAINLY NE WY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL
WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE THROUGH...BRINGING
A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
CANADIAN HAVE ALL FLIPPED BACK TO A COLDER REGIME FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL TREND COLDER AGAIN FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY AND THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...BUT UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO TEMPS. IT DOES CONTINUE TO LOOK MAINLY
DRY DURING THE PERIOD THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BEHIND IT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST SD PLAINS. LOCAL MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...WITH SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL LOCAL MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR SUNDAY WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ014-025-027-032-041-043-044-046-047-049.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012-013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...HELGESON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 230407
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
907 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW NEAR CYQR WITH COLD FRONT TO KRAP TO
SOUTH CENTRAL WY. COUPLE OF HOURS OF GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT AS WELL AS SOME -SHRASN. 00Z KUNR SOUNDING SHOWS LIFT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST MT BEING WASTED ON SATURATION
EARLIER THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR/OBSERVATIONS DO SUGGEST LOWER
TROPOSPHERE MOISTENING ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE
GROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST SD SO HAVE RAISED POPS THERE.

00Z GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS VERY WINDY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER INDICATES HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA WINDS FROM K2WX TO KRAP DURING PEAK MIXING LATER SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IN CONTRAST TO LESSER MOS
GUIDANCE WINDS. 40-50KT 850MB WINDS NOTED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES HIGHER UP. STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED BEHIND TONIGHT/S
SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING.
WILL CONVERT WATCH TO WARNING AND EXPAND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS A BIT
WITH UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

DEEPENING NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA...WITH
CHANCES FOR SNOW AND INCREASING WINDS. THERMAL RIDGE HAS SUPPORTED
A MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA...ESP WHERE ENHANCED LOCAL MIXING HAS
OCCURRED. HOWEVER...INCREASING LSA WITH A LL COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT A WEAK FGEN BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL THEN SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FORCING OVER THE
NORTHERN HILLS. ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL SUSTAIN THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE WESTERN FA
LATE SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SPLITTING NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A WEAK HIGH
CENTERED FGEN RESPONSE OVER THE REGION WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING UVM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...ESP NE WY WHERE BETTER FORCING
FOR ACCENT WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN THIS EVENING...QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT GIVEN
COOLING THERMAL FIELDS. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
ONE INCH. LL FLOW WILL VEER NW TONIGHT AND INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
INITIAL CAA PUSH AND PRESSURE RISES MAY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF NEAR ADV
WINDS AROUND KRAP AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN TAME UNTIL LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...SECONDARY CAA PUSH AND INCREASING LL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. MEAN BL FLOW PROGS SUPPORT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS ESP ACROSS FAR NW SD. BUFR PROGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS OF 50 KNOTS TO MIX DOWN...ESP WITH THE SECONDARY
PRESSURE RISE SURGE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NW. IN
ADDITION...COLD POCKET ALOFT COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH LOCAL ENHANCED
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY SHOWER.
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADV FOR MUCH OF THE SD
PLAINS...RETAINING A HIGH WIND WATCH ACROSS THE FAR NW WHERE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT OF 50 KNOT FLOW WILL
RESIDE. MEAN MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUPPORTED SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WOULD LIKE TO HAVE ANOTHER FORECAST RUN OR TWO
TO SEE IF THIS TREND SUSTAINS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS ALONG THE PLAINS OF THE EASTERN BLACK
HILLS...INCLUDING RAPID CITY...WITH NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LOW POTENTIAL/SHORT DURATION/AND LOCALIZED
NATURE...FEEL A WIND ADV IS MORE PRUDENT. THE OTHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
BE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...MAINLY FROM THE BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS TO
CHEYENNE CROSSING. INCREASING FROUDE/MOISTURE/AND FLOW WITH COOLING
THERMAL FIELDS IN STEEP LL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A DECENT PERIOD
OF UPSLOPE FORCING...EXTENDING INTO THE DGZ. 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. SNOW WILL WIND
DOWN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE BL DRIES. HOWEVER...AS SECONDARY IMPULSE
WILL LEAD TO RENEWED CHANCES FOR SNOW...MAINLY NE WY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL
WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE THROUGH...BRINGING
A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
CANADIAN HAVE ALL FLIPPED BACK TO A COLDER REGIME FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL TREND COLDER AGAIN FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY AND THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...BUT UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO TEMPS. IT DOES CONTINUE TO LOOK MAINLY
DRY DURING THE PERIOD THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN
SD...CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ014-025-027-032-041-043-044-046-047-049.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012-013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS63 KUNR 230407
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
907 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW NEAR CYQR WITH COLD FRONT TO KRAP TO
SOUTH CENTRAL WY. COUPLE OF HOURS OF GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT AS WELL AS SOME -SHRASN. 00Z KUNR SOUNDING SHOWS LIFT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST MT BEING WASTED ON SATURATION
EARLIER THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR/OBSERVATIONS DO SUGGEST LOWER
TROPOSPHERE MOISTENING ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE
GROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST SD SO HAVE RAISED POPS THERE.

00Z GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS VERY WINDY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER INDICATES HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA WINDS FROM K2WX TO KRAP DURING PEAK MIXING LATER SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IN CONTRAST TO LESSER MOS
GUIDANCE WINDS. 40-50KT 850MB WINDS NOTED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES HIGHER UP. STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED BEHIND TONIGHT/S
SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING.
WILL CONVERT WATCH TO WARNING AND EXPAND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS A BIT
WITH UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

DEEPENING NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA...WITH
CHANCES FOR SNOW AND INCREASING WINDS. THERMAL RIDGE HAS SUPPORTED
A MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA...ESP WHERE ENHANCED LOCAL MIXING HAS
OCCURRED. HOWEVER...INCREASING LSA WITH A LL COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT A WEAK FGEN BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL THEN SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FORCING OVER THE
NORTHERN HILLS. ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL SUSTAIN THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE WESTERN FA
LATE SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SPLITTING NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A WEAK HIGH
CENTERED FGEN RESPONSE OVER THE REGION WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING UVM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...ESP NE WY WHERE BETTER FORCING
FOR ACCENT WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN THIS EVENING...QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT GIVEN
COOLING THERMAL FIELDS. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
ONE INCH. LL FLOW WILL VEER NW TONIGHT AND INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
INITIAL CAA PUSH AND PRESSURE RISES MAY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF NEAR ADV
WINDS AROUND KRAP AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN TAME UNTIL LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...SECONDARY CAA PUSH AND INCREASING LL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. MEAN BL FLOW PROGS SUPPORT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS ESP ACROSS FAR NW SD. BUFR PROGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS OF 50 KNOTS TO MIX DOWN...ESP WITH THE SECONDARY
PRESSURE RISE SURGE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NW. IN
ADDITION...COLD POCKET ALOFT COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH LOCAL ENHANCED
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY SHOWER.
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADV FOR MUCH OF THE SD
PLAINS...RETAINING A HIGH WIND WATCH ACROSS THE FAR NW WHERE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT OF 50 KNOT FLOW WILL
RESIDE. MEAN MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUPPORTED SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WOULD LIKE TO HAVE ANOTHER FORECAST RUN OR TWO
TO SEE IF THIS TREND SUSTAINS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS ALONG THE PLAINS OF THE EASTERN BLACK
HILLS...INCLUDING RAPID CITY...WITH NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LOW POTENTIAL/SHORT DURATION/AND LOCALIZED
NATURE...FEEL A WIND ADV IS MORE PRUDENT. THE OTHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
BE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...MAINLY FROM THE BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS TO
CHEYENNE CROSSING. INCREASING FROUDE/MOISTURE/AND FLOW WITH COOLING
THERMAL FIELDS IN STEEP LL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A DECENT PERIOD
OF UPSLOPE FORCING...EXTENDING INTO THE DGZ. 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. SNOW WILL WIND
DOWN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE BL DRIES. HOWEVER...AS SECONDARY IMPULSE
WILL LEAD TO RENEWED CHANCES FOR SNOW...MAINLY NE WY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL
WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE THROUGH...BRINGING
A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
CANADIAN HAVE ALL FLIPPED BACK TO A COLDER REGIME FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL TREND COLDER AGAIN FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY AND THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...BUT UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO TEMPS. IT DOES CONTINUE TO LOOK MAINLY
DRY DURING THE PERIOD THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN
SD...CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ014-025-027-032-041-043-044-046-047-049.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012-013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26






000
FXUS63 KUNR 230407
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
907 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW NEAR CYQR WITH COLD FRONT TO KRAP TO
SOUTH CENTRAL WY. COUPLE OF HOURS OF GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT AS WELL AS SOME -SHRASN. 00Z KUNR SOUNDING SHOWS LIFT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST MT BEING WASTED ON SATURATION
EARLIER THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR/OBSERVATIONS DO SUGGEST LOWER
TROPOSPHERE MOISTENING ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE
GROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST SD SO HAVE RAISED POPS THERE.

00Z GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS VERY WINDY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER INDICATES HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA WINDS FROM K2WX TO KRAP DURING PEAK MIXING LATER SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IN CONTRAST TO LESSER MOS
GUIDANCE WINDS. 40-50KT 850MB WINDS NOTED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES HIGHER UP. STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED BEHIND TONIGHT/S
SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING.
WILL CONVERT WATCH TO WARNING AND EXPAND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS A BIT
WITH UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

DEEPENING NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA...WITH
CHANCES FOR SNOW AND INCREASING WINDS. THERMAL RIDGE HAS SUPPORTED
A MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA...ESP WHERE ENHANCED LOCAL MIXING HAS
OCCURRED. HOWEVER...INCREASING LSA WITH A LL COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT A WEAK FGEN BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL THEN SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FORCING OVER THE
NORTHERN HILLS. ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL SUSTAIN THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE WESTERN FA
LATE SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SPLITTING NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A WEAK HIGH
CENTERED FGEN RESPONSE OVER THE REGION WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING UVM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...ESP NE WY WHERE BETTER FORCING
FOR ACCENT WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN THIS EVENING...QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT GIVEN
COOLING THERMAL FIELDS. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
ONE INCH. LL FLOW WILL VEER NW TONIGHT AND INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
INITIAL CAA PUSH AND PRESSURE RISES MAY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF NEAR ADV
WINDS AROUND KRAP AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN TAME UNTIL LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...SECONDARY CAA PUSH AND INCREASING LL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. MEAN BL FLOW PROGS SUPPORT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS ESP ACROSS FAR NW SD. BUFR PROGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS OF 50 KNOTS TO MIX DOWN...ESP WITH THE SECONDARY
PRESSURE RISE SURGE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NW. IN
ADDITION...COLD POCKET ALOFT COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH LOCAL ENHANCED
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY SHOWER.
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADV FOR MUCH OF THE SD
PLAINS...RETAINING A HIGH WIND WATCH ACROSS THE FAR NW WHERE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT OF 50 KNOT FLOW WILL
RESIDE. MEAN MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUPPORTED SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WOULD LIKE TO HAVE ANOTHER FORECAST RUN OR TWO
TO SEE IF THIS TREND SUSTAINS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS ALONG THE PLAINS OF THE EASTERN BLACK
HILLS...INCLUDING RAPID CITY...WITH NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LOW POTENTIAL/SHORT DURATION/AND LOCALIZED
NATURE...FEEL A WIND ADV IS MORE PRUDENT. THE OTHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
BE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...MAINLY FROM THE BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS TO
CHEYENNE CROSSING. INCREASING FROUDE/MOISTURE/AND FLOW WITH COOLING
THERMAL FIELDS IN STEEP LL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A DECENT PERIOD
OF UPSLOPE FORCING...EXTENDING INTO THE DGZ. 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. SNOW WILL WIND
DOWN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE BL DRIES. HOWEVER...AS SECONDARY IMPULSE
WILL LEAD TO RENEWED CHANCES FOR SNOW...MAINLY NE WY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL
WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE THROUGH...BRINGING
A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
CANADIAN HAVE ALL FLIPPED BACK TO A COLDER REGIME FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL TREND COLDER AGAIN FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY AND THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...BUT UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO TEMPS. IT DOES CONTINUE TO LOOK MAINLY
DRY DURING THE PERIOD THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN
SD...CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ014-025-027-032-041-043-044-046-047-049.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012-013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS63 KUNR 230407
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
907 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW NEAR CYQR WITH COLD FRONT TO KRAP TO
SOUTH CENTRAL WY. COUPLE OF HOURS OF GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT AS WELL AS SOME -SHRASN. 00Z KUNR SOUNDING SHOWS LIFT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST MT BEING WASTED ON SATURATION
EARLIER THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR/OBSERVATIONS DO SUGGEST LOWER
TROPOSPHERE MOISTENING ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE
GROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST SD SO HAVE RAISED POPS THERE.

00Z GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS VERY WINDY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER INDICATES HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA WINDS FROM K2WX TO KRAP DURING PEAK MIXING LATER SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IN CONTRAST TO LESSER MOS
GUIDANCE WINDS. 40-50KT 850MB WINDS NOTED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES HIGHER UP. STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED BEHIND TONIGHT/S
SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING.
WILL CONVERT WATCH TO WARNING AND EXPAND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS A BIT
WITH UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

DEEPENING NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA...WITH
CHANCES FOR SNOW AND INCREASING WINDS. THERMAL RIDGE HAS SUPPORTED
A MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA...ESP WHERE ENHANCED LOCAL MIXING HAS
OCCURRED. HOWEVER...INCREASING LSA WITH A LL COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT A WEAK FGEN BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL THEN SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FORCING OVER THE
NORTHERN HILLS. ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL SUSTAIN THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE WESTERN FA
LATE SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SPLITTING NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A WEAK HIGH
CENTERED FGEN RESPONSE OVER THE REGION WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING UVM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...ESP NE WY WHERE BETTER FORCING
FOR ACCENT WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN THIS EVENING...QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT GIVEN
COOLING THERMAL FIELDS. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
ONE INCH. LL FLOW WILL VEER NW TONIGHT AND INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
INITIAL CAA PUSH AND PRESSURE RISES MAY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF NEAR ADV
WINDS AROUND KRAP AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN TAME UNTIL LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...SECONDARY CAA PUSH AND INCREASING LL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. MEAN BL FLOW PROGS SUPPORT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS ESP ACROSS FAR NW SD. BUFR PROGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS OF 50 KNOTS TO MIX DOWN...ESP WITH THE SECONDARY
PRESSURE RISE SURGE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NW. IN
ADDITION...COLD POCKET ALOFT COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH LOCAL ENHANCED
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY SHOWER.
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADV FOR MUCH OF THE SD
PLAINS...RETAINING A HIGH WIND WATCH ACROSS THE FAR NW WHERE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT OF 50 KNOT FLOW WILL
RESIDE. MEAN MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUPPORTED SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WOULD LIKE TO HAVE ANOTHER FORECAST RUN OR TWO
TO SEE IF THIS TREND SUSTAINS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS ALONG THE PLAINS OF THE EASTERN BLACK
HILLS...INCLUDING RAPID CITY...WITH NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LOW POTENTIAL/SHORT DURATION/AND LOCALIZED
NATURE...FEEL A WIND ADV IS MORE PRUDENT. THE OTHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
BE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...MAINLY FROM THE BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS TO
CHEYENNE CROSSING. INCREASING FROUDE/MOISTURE/AND FLOW WITH COOLING
THERMAL FIELDS IN STEEP LL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A DECENT PERIOD
OF UPSLOPE FORCING...EXTENDING INTO THE DGZ. 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. SNOW WILL WIND
DOWN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE BL DRIES. HOWEVER...AS SECONDARY IMPULSE
WILL LEAD TO RENEWED CHANCES FOR SNOW...MAINLY NE WY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL
WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE THROUGH...BRINGING
A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
CANADIAN HAVE ALL FLIPPED BACK TO A COLDER REGIME FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL TREND COLDER AGAIN FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY AND THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...BUT UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO TEMPS. IT DOES CONTINUE TO LOOK MAINLY
DRY DURING THE PERIOD THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN
SD...CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ014-025-027-032-041-043-044-046-047-049.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012-013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26






000
FXUS63 KUNR 222329
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
429 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

DEEPENING NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA...WITH
CHANCES FOR SNOW AND INCREASING WINDS. THERMAL RIDGE HAS SUPPORTED
A MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA...ESP WHERE ENHANCED LOCAL MIXING HAS
OCCURRED. HOWEVER...INCREASING LSA WITH A LL COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT A WEAK FGEN BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL THEN SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FORCING OVER THE
NORTHERN HILLS. ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL SUSTAIN THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE WESTERN FA
LATE SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SPLITTING NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A WEAK HIGH
CENTERED FGEN RESPONSE OVER THE REGION WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING UVM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...ESP NE WY WHERE BETTER FORCING
FOR ACCENT WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN THIS EVENING...QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT GIVEN
COOLING THERMAL FIELDS. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
ONE INCH. LL FLOW WILL VEER NW TONIGHT AND INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
INITIAL CAA PUSH AND PRESSURE RISES MAY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF NEAR ADV
WINDS AROUND KRAP AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN TAME UNTIL LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...SECONDARY CAA PUSH AND INCREASING LL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. MEAN BL FLOW PROGS SUPPORT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS ESP ACROSS FAR NW SD. BUFR PROGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS OF 50 KNOTS TO MIX DOWN...ESP WITH THE SECONDARY
PRESSURE RISE SURGE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NW. IN
ADDITION...COLD POCKET ALOFT COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH LOCAL ENHANCED
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY SHOWER.
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADV FOR MUCH OF THE SD
PLAINS...RETAINING A HIGH WIND WATCH ACROSS THE FAR NW WHERE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT OF 50 KNOT FLOW WILL
RESIDE. MEAN MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUPPORTED SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WOULD LIKE TO HAVE ANOTHER FORECAST RUN OR TWO
TO SEE IF THIS TREND SUSTAINS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS ALONG THE PLAINS OF THE EASTERN BLACK
HILLS...INCLUDING RAPID CITY...WITH NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LOW POTENTIAL/SHORT DURATION/AND LOCALIZED
NATURE...FEEL A WIND ADV IS MORE PRUDENT. THE OTHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
BE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...MAINLY FROM THE BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS TO
CHEYENNE CROSSING. INCREASING FROUDE/MOISTURE/AND FLOW WITH COOLING
THERMAL FIELDS IN STEEP LL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A DECENT PERIOD
OF UPSLOPE FORCING...EXTENDING INTO THE DGZ. 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. SNOW WILL WIND
DOWN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE BL DRIES. HOWEVER...AS SECONDARY IMPULSE
WILL LEAD TO RENEWED CHANCES FOR SNOW...MAINLY NE WY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL
WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE THROUGH...BRINGING
A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
CANADIAN HAVE ALL FLIPPED BACK TO A COLDER REGIME FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL TREND COLDER AGAIN FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY AND THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...BUT UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO TEMPS. IT DOES CONTINUE TO LOOK MAINLY
DRY DURING THE PERIOD THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN
SD...CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ014-025>027-031-032-041-043-044-046-047-049-
     072.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012-013-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26






000
FXUS63 KUNR 222329
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
429 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

DEEPENING NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA...WITH
CHANCES FOR SNOW AND INCREASING WINDS. THERMAL RIDGE HAS SUPPORTED
A MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA...ESP WHERE ENHANCED LOCAL MIXING HAS
OCCURRED. HOWEVER...INCREASING LSA WITH A LL COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT A WEAK FGEN BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL THEN SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FORCING OVER THE
NORTHERN HILLS. ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL SUSTAIN THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE WESTERN FA
LATE SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SPLITTING NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A WEAK HIGH
CENTERED FGEN RESPONSE OVER THE REGION WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING UVM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...ESP NE WY WHERE BETTER FORCING
FOR ACCENT WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN THIS EVENING...QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT GIVEN
COOLING THERMAL FIELDS. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
ONE INCH. LL FLOW WILL VEER NW TONIGHT AND INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
INITIAL CAA PUSH AND PRESSURE RISES MAY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF NEAR ADV
WINDS AROUND KRAP AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN TAME UNTIL LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...SECONDARY CAA PUSH AND INCREASING LL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. MEAN BL FLOW PROGS SUPPORT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS ESP ACROSS FAR NW SD. BUFR PROGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS OF 50 KNOTS TO MIX DOWN...ESP WITH THE SECONDARY
PRESSURE RISE SURGE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NW. IN
ADDITION...COLD POCKET ALOFT COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH LOCAL ENHANCED
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY SHOWER.
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADV FOR MUCH OF THE SD
PLAINS...RETAINING A HIGH WIND WATCH ACROSS THE FAR NW WHERE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT OF 50 KNOT FLOW WILL
RESIDE. MEAN MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUPPORTED SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WOULD LIKE TO HAVE ANOTHER FORECAST RUN OR TWO
TO SEE IF THIS TREND SUSTAINS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS ALONG THE PLAINS OF THE EASTERN BLACK
HILLS...INCLUDING RAPID CITY...WITH NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LOW POTENTIAL/SHORT DURATION/AND LOCALIZED
NATURE...FEEL A WIND ADV IS MORE PRUDENT. THE OTHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
BE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...MAINLY FROM THE BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS TO
CHEYENNE CROSSING. INCREASING FROUDE/MOISTURE/AND FLOW WITH COOLING
THERMAL FIELDS IN STEEP LL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A DECENT PERIOD
OF UPSLOPE FORCING...EXTENDING INTO THE DGZ. 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. SNOW WILL WIND
DOWN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE BL DRIES. HOWEVER...AS SECONDARY IMPULSE
WILL LEAD TO RENEWED CHANCES FOR SNOW...MAINLY NE WY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL
WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE THROUGH...BRINGING
A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
CANADIAN HAVE ALL FLIPPED BACK TO A COLDER REGIME FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL TREND COLDER AGAIN FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY AND THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...BUT UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO TEMPS. IT DOES CONTINUE TO LOOK MAINLY
DRY DURING THE PERIOD THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN
SD...CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ014-025>027-031-032-041-043-044-046-047-049-
     072.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012-013-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS63 KUNR 221744
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1044 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

POTENT NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVECT EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TIMING OF UVM LOOKS OT BE A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. GIVEN UPSTREAM OB TRENDS...WENT AHEAD
AND INCREASED POPS THIS AFTERNOON FAR NW. OTHERWISE...WENT AHEAD
AND ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NW SD SUNDAY GIVEN
MOMENTUM/MIXING PROGS. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 LOOK LIKELY ACROSS
FAR NW SD...AND POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS RAPID CITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE LARGE
SCALE FOR THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS MORNING.  WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW ARE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS PRODUCING SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CONTDVD...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ARE IN THE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OR
NORTHERN ROCKIES. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ARE SEASONABLY MILD BUT WARM CONSIDERABLY TO THE WEST IN THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. A VIGOROUS FAST MOVING PACIFIC SHORT
WAVE WAS MOVING ONSHORE AT 09Z. A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN HAS PRETTY MUCH CUT OFF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO WHICH IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD.

TODAY...ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY.  THE APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM MID MORNING
ONWARD...BUT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST
A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.  A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLKHLS REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE DCVA FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AS THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN INITIALLY THEN BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW
AFTER 06Z AND BE ALL SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  DEPENDING ON
WHEN THE SWITCHOVER ACTUALLY OCCURS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLKHLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING COULD SEE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...THE PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SPLITTING AND
SLOWING DOWN AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS
EVOLUTION WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE
WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER STORY ON
SUNDAY AS DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY FADE.
WIND SPEEDS MEETING HIGH WIND CRITERIA ARE A POSSIBILITY EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEHIND THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED
IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE ALL NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS MOST AREAS. SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE WY AND PORTIONS OF FAR WRN
SD.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT TYPE
OF AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING WARMER
AIR ADVECTING IN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING EAST OF THE
CWA...BUT THE 00Z GFS HAS TRENDED BACK TO A COLDER SOLUTION WHILE
THE 00Z ECM HAS TRENDED WARMER. WILL STICK WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE
OF ALL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 1043 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT.
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...CHANGING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012-013-025-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JC
SHORT TERM...CARPENTER
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 221538
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
838 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

POTENT NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVECT EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TIMING OF UVM LOOKS OT BE A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. GIVEN UPSTREAM OB TRENDS...WENT AHEAD
AND INCREASED POPS THIS AFTERNOON FAR NW. OTHERWISE...WENT AHEAD
AND ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NW SD SUNDAY GIVEN
MOMENTUM/MIXING PROGS. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 LOOK LIKELY ACROSS
FAR NW SD...AND POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS RAPID CITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE LARGE
SCALE FOR THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS MORNING.  WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW ARE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS PRODUCING SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CONTDVD...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ARE IN THE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OR
NORTHERN ROCKIES. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ARE SEASONABLY MILD BUT WARM CONSIDERABLY TO THE WEST IN THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. A VIGOROUS FAST MOVING PACIFIC SHORT
WAVE WAS MOVING ONSHORE AT 09Z. A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN HAS PRETTY MUCH CUT OFF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO WHICH IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD.

TODAY...ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY.  THE APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM MID MORNING
ONWARD...BUT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST
A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.  A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLKHLS REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE DCVA FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AS THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN INITIALLY THEN BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW
AFTER 06Z AND BE ALL SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  DEPENDING ON
WHEN THE SWITCHOVER ACTUALLY OCCURS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLKHLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING COULD SEE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...THE PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SPLITTING AND
SLOWING DOWN AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS
EVOLUTION WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE
WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER STORY ON
SUNDAY AS DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY FADE.
WIND SPEEDS MEETING HIGH WIND CRITERIA ARE A POSSIBILITY EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEHIND THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED
IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE ALL NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS MOST AREAS. SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE WY AND PORTIONS OF FAR WRN
SD.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT TYPE
OF AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING WARMER
AIR ADVECTING IN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING EAST OF THE
CWA...BUT THE 00Z GFS HAS TRENDED BACK TO A COLDER SOLUTION WHILE
THE 00Z ECM HAS TRENDED WARMER. WILL STICK WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE
OF ALL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. CHANCES FOR SHRA ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SHSN OVERNIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012-013-025-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JC
SHORT TERM...CARPENTER
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KUNR 221538
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
838 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

POTENT NW CONUS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVECT EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TIMING OF UVM LOOKS OT BE A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. GIVEN UPSTREAM OB TRENDS...WENT AHEAD
AND INCREASED POPS THIS AFTERNOON FAR NW. OTHERWISE...WENT AHEAD
AND ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NW SD SUNDAY GIVEN
MOMENTUM/MIXING PROGS. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 LOOK LIKELY ACROSS
FAR NW SD...AND POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS RAPID CITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE LARGE
SCALE FOR THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS MORNING.  WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW ARE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS PRODUCING SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CONTDVD...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ARE IN THE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OR
NORTHERN ROCKIES. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ARE SEASONABLY MILD BUT WARM CONSIDERABLY TO THE WEST IN THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. A VIGOROUS FAST MOVING PACIFIC SHORT
WAVE WAS MOVING ONSHORE AT 09Z. A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN HAS PRETTY MUCH CUT OFF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO WHICH IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD.

TODAY...ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY.  THE APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM MID MORNING
ONWARD...BUT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST
A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.  A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLKHLS REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE DCVA FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AS THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN INITIALLY THEN BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW
AFTER 06Z AND BE ALL SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  DEPENDING ON
WHEN THE SWITCHOVER ACTUALLY OCCURS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLKHLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING COULD SEE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...THE PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SPLITTING AND
SLOWING DOWN AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS
EVOLUTION WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE
WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER STORY ON
SUNDAY AS DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY FADE.
WIND SPEEDS MEETING HIGH WIND CRITERIA ARE A POSSIBILITY EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEHIND THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED
IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE ALL NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS MOST AREAS. SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE WY AND PORTIONS OF FAR WRN
SD.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT TYPE
OF AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING WARMER
AIR ADVECTING IN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING EAST OF THE
CWA...BUT THE 00Z GFS HAS TRENDED BACK TO A COLDER SOLUTION WHILE
THE 00Z ECM HAS TRENDED WARMER. WILL STICK WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE
OF ALL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. CHANCES FOR SHRA ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SHSN OVERNIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012-013-025-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JC
SHORT TERM...CARPENTER
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13








000
FXUS63 KUNR 221002
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
302 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE LARGE
SCALE FOR THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS MORNING.  WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW ARE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS PRODUCING SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CONTDVD...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ARE IN THE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OR
NORTHERN ROCKIES. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ARE SEASONABLY MILD BUT WARM CONSIDERABLY TO THE WEST IN THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. A VIGOROUS FAST MOVING PACIFIC SHORT
WAVE WAS MOVING ONSHORE AT 09Z. A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN HAS PRETTY MUCH CUT OFF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO WHICH IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD.

TODAY...ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY.  THE APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM MID MORNING
ONWARD...BUT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST
A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.  A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLKHLS REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE DCVA FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AS THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN INITIALLY THEN BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW
AFTER 06Z AND BE ALL SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  DEPENDING ON
WHEN THE SWITCHOVER ACTUALLY OCCURS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLKHLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING COULD SEE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...THE PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SPLITTING AND
SLOWING DOWN AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS
EVOLUTION WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE
WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER STORY ON
SUNDAY AS DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY FADE.
WIND SPEEDS MEETING HIGH WIND CRITERIA ARE A POSSIBILITY EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEHIND THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED
IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE ALL NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS MOST AREAS. SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE WY AND PORTIONS OF FAR WRN
SD.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT TYPE
OF AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING WARMER
AIR ADVECTING IN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING EAST OF THE
CWA...BUT THE 00Z GFS HAS TRENDED BACK TO A COLDER SOLUTION WHILE
THE 00Z ECM HAS TRENDED WARMER. WILL STICK WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE
OF ALL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. CHANCES FOR SHRA ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SHSN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CARPENTER
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KUNR 221002
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
302 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE LARGE
SCALE FOR THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS MORNING.  WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW ARE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS PRODUCING SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CONTDVD...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ARE IN THE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OR
NORTHERN ROCKIES. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ARE SEASONABLY MILD BUT WARM CONSIDERABLY TO THE WEST IN THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. A VIGOROUS FAST MOVING PACIFIC SHORT
WAVE WAS MOVING ONSHORE AT 09Z. A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN HAS PRETTY MUCH CUT OFF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO WHICH IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD.

TODAY...ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY.  THE APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM MID MORNING
ONWARD...BUT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST
A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.  A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLKHLS REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE DCVA FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AS THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN INITIALLY THEN BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW
AFTER 06Z AND BE ALL SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  DEPENDING ON
WHEN THE SWITCHOVER ACTUALLY OCCURS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLKHLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING COULD SEE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...THE PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SPLITTING AND
SLOWING DOWN AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS
EVOLUTION WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE
WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER STORY ON
SUNDAY AS DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY FADE.
WIND SPEEDS MEETING HIGH WIND CRITERIA ARE A POSSIBILITY EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEHIND THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED
IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE ALL NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS MOST AREAS. SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE WY AND PORTIONS OF FAR WRN
SD.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT TYPE
OF AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING WARMER
AIR ADVECTING IN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING EAST OF THE
CWA...BUT THE 00Z GFS HAS TRENDED BACK TO A COLDER SOLUTION WHILE
THE 00Z ECM HAS TRENDED WARMER. WILL STICK WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE
OF ALL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. CHANCES FOR SHRA ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SHSN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CARPENTER
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13








000
FXUS63 KUNR 221002
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
302 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE LARGE
SCALE FOR THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS MORNING.  WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW ARE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS PRODUCING SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CONTDVD...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ARE IN THE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OR
NORTHERN ROCKIES. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ARE SEASONABLY MILD BUT WARM CONSIDERABLY TO THE WEST IN THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. A VIGOROUS FAST MOVING PACIFIC SHORT
WAVE WAS MOVING ONSHORE AT 09Z. A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN HAS PRETTY MUCH CUT OFF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO WHICH IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD.

TODAY...ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY.  THE APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM MID MORNING
ONWARD...BUT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST
A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.  A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLKHLS REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE DCVA FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AS THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN INITIALLY THEN BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW
AFTER 06Z AND BE ALL SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  DEPENDING ON
WHEN THE SWITCHOVER ACTUALLY OCCURS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLKHLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING COULD SEE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...THE PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SPLITTING AND
SLOWING DOWN AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS
EVOLUTION WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE
WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER STORY ON
SUNDAY AS DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY FADE.
WIND SPEEDS MEETING HIGH WIND CRITERIA ARE A POSSIBILITY EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEHIND THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED
IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE ALL NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS MOST AREAS. SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE WY AND PORTIONS OF FAR WRN
SD.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT TYPE
OF AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING WARMER
AIR ADVECTING IN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING EAST OF THE
CWA...BUT THE 00Z GFS HAS TRENDED BACK TO A COLDER SOLUTION WHILE
THE 00Z ECM HAS TRENDED WARMER. WILL STICK WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE
OF ALL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. CHANCES FOR SHRA ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SHSN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CARPENTER
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13








000
FXUS63 KUNR 221002
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
302 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE LARGE
SCALE FOR THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS MORNING.  WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW ARE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS PRODUCING SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CONTDVD...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ARE IN THE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OR
NORTHERN ROCKIES. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ARE SEASONABLY MILD BUT WARM CONSIDERABLY TO THE WEST IN THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. A VIGOROUS FAST MOVING PACIFIC SHORT
WAVE WAS MOVING ONSHORE AT 09Z. A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN HAS PRETTY MUCH CUT OFF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO WHICH IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD.

TODAY...ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY.  THE APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM MID MORNING
ONWARD...BUT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST
A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.  A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLKHLS REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE DCVA FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AS THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN INITIALLY THEN BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW
AFTER 06Z AND BE ALL SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  DEPENDING ON
WHEN THE SWITCHOVER ACTUALLY OCCURS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLKHLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING COULD SEE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...THE PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SPLITTING AND
SLOWING DOWN AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS
EVOLUTION WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE
WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER STORY ON
SUNDAY AS DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY FADE.
WIND SPEEDS MEETING HIGH WIND CRITERIA ARE A POSSIBILITY EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEHIND THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED
IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE ALL NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS MOST AREAS. SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE WY AND PORTIONS OF FAR WRN
SD.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT TYPE
OF AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING WARMER
AIR ADVECTING IN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING EAST OF THE
CWA...BUT THE 00Z GFS HAS TRENDED BACK TO A COLDER SOLUTION WHILE
THE 00Z ECM HAS TRENDED WARMER. WILL STICK WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE
OF ALL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. CHANCES FOR SHRA ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SHSN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CARPENTER
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KUNR 220510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1010 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRY
WESTERLY PAC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...SUPPORTING A SFC TROUGH INTO
THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT LITTLE TO NO CAA...KEEPING
THERMAL FIELDS BASICALLY UNALTERED ON IT/S BACKSIDE. ATTENTION TURNS
TOWARD A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE PAC NW. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND AMPLIFY PER A STAUNCH
150+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET...ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT STRONG LL PRESSURE
FALLS...AND A DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE OVER THE REGION BY SAT
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION SAT
NIGHT...SUPPORTING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND RESULTING RAIN AND
SNOW...ESP OVER NE WY AND THE NORTHERN HILLS. ANY SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY START AS RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW/MIX...WITH PRECIP TYPE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW SAT NIGHT. OVERALL...PRECIP CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE SCT-ISOLD RANGE...GIVEN LACK OF SIG FOCUS UVM. ANY
SNOW ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...OUTSIDE OF THE
NORTHERN HILLS WHERE A COUPLE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FOR TEMPS...PAC NW SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT RE-NEWED DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING WITH AN ASSOCIATED THERMAL RIDGE...WHICH WILL ADVECT OVER
THE REGION SAT. GIVEN CYCLOGENESIS AND INCREASED SFC PRESSURE
FALLS...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION
SAT...SUPPORTING GOOD MIXING. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER WARM DAY
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 40S AND 50S COMMON ESP...WARMEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN BLACK HILLS AND SCENTRAL SD. WINDS WILL INCREASE SAT EVE
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE
BLACK HILLS...WITH WINDS INCREASING EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SAT NIGHT...POST FRONTAL. STRONG NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS
STAUNCH CAA COMBINES WITH SFC PRESSURE RISES AND INCREASING BL FLOW.
HAVE INCREASED WINDS SOME SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BRING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO
MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WARNING CRITERIA WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL SD. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AND SEE IF A WATCH
IS NEEDED. UPSLOPE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
LIKELY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT RIGHT NOW FOR THE
THANKSGIVING PERIOD...WITH A MILDER AND DRIER STRETCH OF WEATHER
LOOKING MORE LIKELY. WILL GO WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. IF LATEST
TRENDS PERSIST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE BLACK HILLS OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING A FEW -SHRASN AND LOCAL MVFR CIGS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 220510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1010 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRY
WESTERLY PAC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...SUPPORTING A SFC TROUGH INTO
THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT LITTLE TO NO CAA...KEEPING
THERMAL FIELDS BASICALLY UNALTERED ON IT/S BACKSIDE. ATTENTION TURNS
TOWARD A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE PAC NW. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND AMPLIFY PER A STAUNCH
150+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET...ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT STRONG LL PRESSURE
FALLS...AND A DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE OVER THE REGION BY SAT
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION SAT
NIGHT...SUPPORTING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND RESULTING RAIN AND
SNOW...ESP OVER NE WY AND THE NORTHERN HILLS. ANY SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY START AS RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW/MIX...WITH PRECIP TYPE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW SAT NIGHT. OVERALL...PRECIP CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE SCT-ISOLD RANGE...GIVEN LACK OF SIG FOCUS UVM. ANY
SNOW ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...OUTSIDE OF THE
NORTHERN HILLS WHERE A COUPLE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FOR TEMPS...PAC NW SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT RE-NEWED DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING WITH AN ASSOCIATED THERMAL RIDGE...WHICH WILL ADVECT OVER
THE REGION SAT. GIVEN CYCLOGENESIS AND INCREASED SFC PRESSURE
FALLS...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION
SAT...SUPPORTING GOOD MIXING. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER WARM DAY
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 40S AND 50S COMMON ESP...WARMEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN BLACK HILLS AND SCENTRAL SD. WINDS WILL INCREASE SAT EVE
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE
BLACK HILLS...WITH WINDS INCREASING EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SAT NIGHT...POST FRONTAL. STRONG NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS
STAUNCH CAA COMBINES WITH SFC PRESSURE RISES AND INCREASING BL FLOW.
HAVE INCREASED WINDS SOME SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BRING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO
MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WARNING CRITERIA WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL SD. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AND SEE IF A WATCH
IS NEEDED. UPSLOPE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
LIKELY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT RIGHT NOW FOR THE
THANKSGIVING PERIOD...WITH A MILDER AND DRIER STRETCH OF WEATHER
LOOKING MORE LIKELY. WILL GO WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. IF LATEST
TRENDS PERSIST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE BLACK HILLS OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING A FEW -SHRASN AND LOCAL MVFR CIGS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...HELGESON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 212152
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
252 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRY
WESTERLY PAC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...SUPPORTING A SFC TROUGH INTO
THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT LITTLE TO NO CAA...KEEPING
THERMAL FIELDS BASICALLY UNALTERED ON IT/S BACKSIDE. ATTENTION TURNS
TOWARD A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE PAC NW. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND AMPLIFY PER A STAUNCH
150+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET...ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT STRONG LL PRESSURE
FALLS...AND A DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE OVER THE REGION BY SAT
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION SAT
NIGHT...SUPPORTING FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND RESULTING RAIN AND
SNOW...ESP OVER NE WY AND THE NORTHERN HILLS. ANY SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY START AS RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW/MIX...WITH PRECIP TYPE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW SAT NIGHT. OVERALL...PRECIP CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE SCT-ISOLD RANGE...GIVEN LACK OF SIG FOCUS UVM. ANY
SNOW ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...OUTSIDE OF THE
NORTHERN HILLS WHERE A COUPLE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FOR TEMPS...PAC NW SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT RE-NEWED DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING WITH AN ASSOCIATED THERMAL RIDGE...WHICH WILL ADVECT OVER
THE REGION SAT. GIVEN CYCLOGENESIS AND INCREASED SFC PRESSURE
FALLS...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION
SAT...SUPPORTING GOOD MIXING. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER WARM DAY
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 40S AND 50S COMMON ESP...WARMEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN BLACK HILLS AND SCENTRAL SD. WINDS WILL INCREASE SAT EVE
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE
BLACK HILLS...WITH WINDS INCREASING EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SAT NIGHT...POST FRONTAL. STRONG NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS
STAUNCH CAA COMBINES WITH SFC PRESSURE RISES AND INCREASING BL FLOW.
HAVE INCREASED WINDS SOME SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BRING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO
MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WARNING CRITERIA WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL SD. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AND SEE IF A WATCH
IS NEEDED. UPSLOPE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
LIKELY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT RIGHT NOW FOR THE
THANKSGIVING PERIOD...WITH A MILDER AND DRIER STRETCH OF WEATHER
LOOKING MORE LIKELY. WILL GO WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. IF LATEST
TRENDS PERSIST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 251 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS63 KUNR 212152
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
252 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRY
WESTERLY PAC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...SUPPORTING A SFC TROUGH INTO
THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT LITTLE TO NO CAA...KEEPING
THERMAL FIELDS BASICALLY UNALTERED ON IT/S BACKSIDE. ATTENTION TURNS
TOWARD A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE PAC NW. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND AMPLIFY PER A STAUNCH
150+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET...ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT STRONG LL PRESSURE
FALLS...AND A DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE OVER THE REGION BY SAT
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION SAT
NIGHT...SUPPORTING FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND RESULTING RAIN AND
SNOW...ESP OVER NE WY AND THE NORTHERN HILLS. ANY SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY START AS RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW/MIX...WITH PRECIP TYPE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW SAT NIGHT. OVERALL...PRECIP CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE SCT-ISOLD RANGE...GIVEN LACK OF SIG FOCUS UVM. ANY
SNOW ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...OUTSIDE OF THE
NORTHERN HILLS WHERE A COUPLE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FOR TEMPS...PAC NW SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT RE-NEWED DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING WITH AN ASSOCIATED THERMAL RIDGE...WHICH WILL ADVECT OVER
THE REGION SAT. GIVEN CYCLOGENESIS AND INCREASED SFC PRESSURE
FALLS...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION
SAT...SUPPORTING GOOD MIXING. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER WARM DAY
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 40S AND 50S COMMON ESP...WARMEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN BLACK HILLS AND SCENTRAL SD. WINDS WILL INCREASE SAT EVE
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE
BLACK HILLS...WITH WINDS INCREASING EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SAT NIGHT...POST FRONTAL. STRONG NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS
STAUNCH CAA COMBINES WITH SFC PRESSURE RISES AND INCREASING BL FLOW.
HAVE INCREASED WINDS SOME SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BRING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO
MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WARNING CRITERIA WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL SD. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AND SEE IF A WATCH
IS NEEDED. UPSLOPE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
LIKELY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT RIGHT NOW FOR THE
THANKSGIVING PERIOD...WITH A MILDER AND DRIER STRETCH OF WEATHER
LOOKING MORE LIKELY. WILL GO WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. IF LATEST
TRENDS PERSIST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 251 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 212152
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
252 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRY
WESTERLY PAC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...SUPPORTING A SFC TROUGH INTO
THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT LITTLE TO NO CAA...KEEPING
THERMAL FIELDS BASICALLY UNALTERED ON IT/S BACKSIDE. ATTENTION TURNS
TOWARD A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE PAC NW. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND AMPLIFY PER A STAUNCH
150+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET...ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT STRONG LL PRESSURE
FALLS...AND A DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE OVER THE REGION BY SAT
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION SAT
NIGHT...SUPPORTING FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND RESULTING RAIN AND
SNOW...ESP OVER NE WY AND THE NORTHERN HILLS. ANY SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY START AS RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW/MIX...WITH PRECIP TYPE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW SAT NIGHT. OVERALL...PRECIP CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE SCT-ISOLD RANGE...GIVEN LACK OF SIG FOCUS UVM. ANY
SNOW ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...OUTSIDE OF THE
NORTHERN HILLS WHERE A COUPLE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FOR TEMPS...PAC NW SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT RE-NEWED DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING WITH AN ASSOCIATED THERMAL RIDGE...WHICH WILL ADVECT OVER
THE REGION SAT. GIVEN CYCLOGENESIS AND INCREASED SFC PRESSURE
FALLS...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION
SAT...SUPPORTING GOOD MIXING. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER WARM DAY
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 40S AND 50S COMMON ESP...WARMEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN BLACK HILLS AND SCENTRAL SD. WINDS WILL INCREASE SAT EVE
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE
BLACK HILLS...WITH WINDS INCREASING EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SAT NIGHT...POST FRONTAL. STRONG NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS
STAUNCH CAA COMBINES WITH SFC PRESSURE RISES AND INCREASING BL FLOW.
HAVE INCREASED WINDS SOME SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BRING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO
MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WARNING CRITERIA WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL SD. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AND SEE IF A WATCH
IS NEEDED. UPSLOPE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
LIKELY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT RIGHT NOW FOR THE
THANKSGIVING PERIOD...WITH A MILDER AND DRIER STRETCH OF WEATHER
LOOKING MORE LIKELY. WILL GO WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. IF LATEST
TRENDS PERSIST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 251 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS63 KUNR 211804
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1104 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP TROF SHIFTING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. NEXT UPSTREAM TROF
IS NOTED OFFSHORE THE PAC NW. AT THE SFC...LEE TROF HAS ADVANCED
INTO ERN MT/ERN WY.

TODAY...THERMAL RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD ALONG WITH SFC TROF PUSHING
THROUGH WILL SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING ARCTIC AIR AND ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS. WARMEST TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE BLKHLS WITH A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT AIDING IN THE WARMING.

SATURDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT RETURNS AS NEXT TROF ADVANCES QUICKLY
THROUGH THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW EVEN
WARMER AIR TO SPILL INTO OUR REGION WITH SOME PLACES EAST/SOUTH OF
THE BLKHLS REACHING INTO THE 50S. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROF WORKS INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BEST LIFT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWFA...BUT THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE
OF POST FRONTAL RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACRS NERN WY...THE
BLKHLS...AND NWRN SD.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL BRING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE WRN SD
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHSN WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE
NRN BLKHLS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY ON MONDAY AS STRONG
PRESSURE RISES MOVE THROUGH. ON WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
WILL BEGIN SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...BRINGING
IN ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SNOW.
MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE ENDING OF SNOW WED NIGHT/THANKSGIVING WITH
THE ECMWF BEING THE FASTEST. WILL END SNOW BY THANKSGIVING MORNING
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. BREEZY WEST
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST SD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST WY TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS63 KUNR 211804
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1104 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP TROF SHIFTING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. NEXT UPSTREAM TROF
IS NOTED OFFSHORE THE PAC NW. AT THE SFC...LEE TROF HAS ADVANCED
INTO ERN MT/ERN WY.

TODAY...THERMAL RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD ALONG WITH SFC TROF PUSHING
THROUGH WILL SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING ARCTIC AIR AND ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS. WARMEST TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE BLKHLS WITH A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT AIDING IN THE WARMING.

SATURDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT RETURNS AS NEXT TROF ADVANCES QUICKLY
THROUGH THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW EVEN
WARMER AIR TO SPILL INTO OUR REGION WITH SOME PLACES EAST/SOUTH OF
THE BLKHLS REACHING INTO THE 50S. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROF WORKS INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BEST LIFT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWFA...BUT THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE
OF POST FRONTAL RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACRS NERN WY...THE
BLKHLS...AND NWRN SD.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL BRING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE WRN SD
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHSN WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE
NRN BLKHLS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY ON MONDAY AS STRONG
PRESSURE RISES MOVE THROUGH. ON WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
WILL BEGIN SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...BRINGING
IN ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SNOW.
MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE ENDING OF SNOW WED NIGHT/THANKSGIVING WITH
THE ECMWF BEING THE FASTEST. WILL END SNOW BY THANKSGIVING MORNING
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. BREEZY WEST
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST SD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST WY TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 211003
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
303 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP TROF SHIFTING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. NEXT UPSTREAM TROF
IS NOTED OFFSHORE THE PAC NW. AT THE SFC...LEE TROF HAS ADVANCED
INTO ERN MT/ERN WY.

TODAY...THERMAL RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD ALONG WITH SFC TROF PUSHING
THROUGH WILL SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING ARCTIC AIR AND ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS. WARMEST TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE BLKHLS WITH A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT AIDING IN THE WARMING.

SATURDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT RETURNS AS NEXT TROF ADVANCES QUICKLY
THROUGH THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW EVEN
WARMER AIR TO SPILL INTO OUR REGION WITH SOME PLACES EAST/SOUTH OF
THE BLKHLS REACHING INTO THE 50S. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROF WORKS INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BEST LIFT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWFA...BUT THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE
OF POST FRONTAL RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACRS NERN WY...THE
BLKHLS...AND NWRN SD.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL BRING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE WRN SD
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHSN WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE
NRN BLKHLS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY ON MONDAY AS STRONG
PRESSURE RISES MOVE THROUGH. ON WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
WILL BEGIN SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...BRINGING
IN ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SNOW.
MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE ENDING OF SNOW WED NIGHT/THANKSGIVING WITH
THE ECMWF BEING THE FASTEST. WILL END SNOW BY THANKSGIVING MORNING
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KUNR 211003
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
303 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP TROF SHIFTING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. NEXT UPSTREAM TROF
IS NOTED OFFSHORE THE PAC NW. AT THE SFC...LEE TROF HAS ADVANCED
INTO ERN MT/ERN WY.

TODAY...THERMAL RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD ALONG WITH SFC TROF PUSHING
THROUGH WILL SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING ARCTIC AIR AND ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS. WARMEST TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE BLKHLS WITH A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT AIDING IN THE WARMING.

SATURDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT RETURNS AS NEXT TROF ADVANCES QUICKLY
THROUGH THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW EVEN
WARMER AIR TO SPILL INTO OUR REGION WITH SOME PLACES EAST/SOUTH OF
THE BLKHLS REACHING INTO THE 50S. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROF WORKS INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BEST LIFT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWFA...BUT THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE
OF POST FRONTAL RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACRS NERN WY...THE
BLKHLS...AND NWRN SD.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL BRING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE WRN SD
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHSN WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE
NRN BLKHLS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY ON MONDAY AS STRONG
PRESSURE RISES MOVE THROUGH. ON WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
WILL BEGIN SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...BRINGING
IN ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SNOW.
MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE ENDING OF SNOW WED NIGHT/THANKSGIVING WITH
THE ECMWF BEING THE FASTEST. WILL END SNOW BY THANKSGIVING MORNING
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13








000
FXUS63 KUNR 210517
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1017 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF A
COMPACT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL
FORCE A WEAK SFC TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY WITH WEAK CAA
ENSUING IN IT/S WAKE. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL IN THE PERIOD WITH
NEARLY ALL LSA REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE FA. MILD CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED...WITH DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW.

AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW AND INSOLATION WORKING IN TANDEM. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER...INCREASING
CIRRUS AND MID CLOUD CAN BE EXPECTED...WHICH WILL LIMIT T FALLS TO AN
EXTENT. PRESSURE FALLS WITH WAA FLOW WILL SUPPORT MILD CONDITIONS ON
THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE BLACK HILLS.

MID CLOUD AND CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY WITH LL
WESTERLY FLOW AND WARM LL THERMAL FIELDS SUPPORTING A FAIRLY MILD DAY
MOST PLACES WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. SFC TROUGH WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY...SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY COOLER LL THERMAL FIELDS.
SUSTAINED WESTERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD HELP LIMIT TEMPS FALLS
AWAY FROM VALLEYS...ESP IN THE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE BLACK
HILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE A
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPS COLD AND MOIST AIR SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW BEGIN LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. RAIN WILL
QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW SATURDAY EVENING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK
HILLS AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS
EAST...WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE STRONG ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY ON MONDAY AS STRONG PRESSURE RISES MOVE
THROUGH. ON WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN SWINGING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...BRINGING IN ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBY DUE TO ST/FZFG POSSIBLE IN CREEKS/RIVER
VALLEYS TONIGHT ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...HELGESON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 210517
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1017 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF A
COMPACT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL
FORCE A WEAK SFC TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY WITH WEAK CAA
ENSUING IN IT/S WAKE. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL IN THE PERIOD WITH
NEARLY ALL LSA REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE FA. MILD CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED...WITH DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW.

AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW AND INSOLATION WORKING IN TANDEM. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER...INCREASING
CIRRUS AND MID CLOUD CAN BE EXPECTED...WHICH WILL LIMIT T FALLS TO AN
EXTENT. PRESSURE FALLS WITH WAA FLOW WILL SUPPORT MILD CONDITIONS ON
THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE BLACK HILLS.

MID CLOUD AND CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY WITH LL
WESTERLY FLOW AND WARM LL THERMAL FIELDS SUPPORTING A FAIRLY MILD DAY
MOST PLACES WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. SFC TROUGH WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY...SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY COOLER LL THERMAL FIELDS.
SUSTAINED WESTERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD HELP LIMIT TEMPS FALLS
AWAY FROM VALLEYS...ESP IN THE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE BLACK
HILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE A
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPS COLD AND MOIST AIR SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW BEGIN LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. RAIN WILL
QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW SATURDAY EVENING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK
HILLS AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS
EAST...WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE STRONG ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY ON MONDAY AS STRONG PRESSURE RISES MOVE
THROUGH. ON WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN SWINGING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...BRINGING IN ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBY DUE TO ST/FZFG POSSIBLE IN CREEKS/RIVER
VALLEYS TONIGHT ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...HELGESON





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