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000
FXUS63 KUNR 212330
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
530 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER RIDGING HAS PUSHED EWD WITH THE MAIN AXIS NOW CENTERED ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES IS
SLIDING EAST WITH STRONG SWRLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. SURFACE LOW HAS
DEVELOPED OVER ERN MT WITH BREEZY SRLY WINDS OVER THE CNTRL SD
PLAINS...AND SWRLY WINDS OVER NE WY TO FAR WRN SD.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. ISLD SHRA WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT LACK OF
MOISTURE WILL WARRANT KEEPING POPS LOW.

LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EWD INTO CNTRL SD WED
MORNING...CLEARING THE CWA BY EARLY AFTN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE DEPARTING WAVE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SUNNY SKIES TO THE
AREA...AND CLEAR SKIES WED NIGHT. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
COOLER...MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH BREEZY NW WINDS OVER NW TO CNTRL SD.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WED NIGHT...HAVE DROPPED MIN TEMPS
SLIGHTLY...INTO THE LOWER 30S IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MT INTO
EASTERN CO. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN WITH
READINGS 10 TO 20F ABOVE AVERAGE. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE CWA. RESULT
WILL BE A COOL DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 518 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHRA/TS. NO FLT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 25KTS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC








000
FXUS63 KUNR 212033
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
233 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER RIDGING HAS PUSHED EWD WITH THE MAIN AXIS NOW CENTERED ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES IS
SLIDING EAST WITH STRONG SWRLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. SURFACE LOW HAS
DEVELOPED OVER ERN MT WITH BREEZY SRLY WINDS OVER THE CNTRL SD
PLAINS...AND SWRLY WINDS OVER NE WY TO FAR WRN SD.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. ISLD SHRA WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT LACK OF
MOISTURE WILL WARRANT KEEPING POPS LOW.

LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EWD INTO CNTRL SD WED
MORNING...CLEARING THE CWA BY EARLY AFTN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE DEPARTING WAVE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SUNNY SKIES TO THE
AREA...AND CLEAR SKIES WED NIGHT. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
COOLER...MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH BREEZY NW WINDS OVER NW TO CNTRL SD.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WED NIGHT...HAVE DROPPED MIN TEMPS
SLIGHTLY...INTO THE LOWER 30S IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MT INTO
EASTERN CO. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN WITH
READINGS 10 TO 20F ABOVE AVERAGE. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE CWA. RESULT
WILL BE A COOL DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TO AROUND 25KTS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. A FEW HIGH BASED -SHRA ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS NOT EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON








000
FXUS63 KUNR 211707
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1107 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY COVERS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST. SURFACE HIGH IS TO THE EAST
AND SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST WEST OF THE AREA. BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHWEST DOWN-SLOPING FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE INCOMING
TROUGH AND EXITING SURFACE HIGH WILL CREATE SOME GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE WINDS COULD
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. MOIST AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO
WESTERN SD...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

TONIGHT THE UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH EASTWARD...AND A COOL FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE CWA. COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SD...WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
PUTTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
IN THE 60S...WITH 50S IN THE HILLS.



&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MT INTO
EASTERN CO. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN WITH
READINGS 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE CWA. RESULT WILL
BE COOL-DOWN ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...MIGHT BE SOME
-SHSN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TO AROUND 25KTS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. A FEW HIGH BASED -SHRA ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS NOT EXPECTED. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...JOHNSON








000
FXUS63 KUNR 210914
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
314 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY COVERS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST. SURFACE HIGH IS TO THE EAST
AND SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST WEST OF THE AREA. BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHWEST DOWN-SLOPING FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE INCOMING
TROUGH AND EXITING SURFACE HIGH WILL CREATE SOME GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE WINDS COULD
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. MOIST AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO
WESTERN SD...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

TONIGHT THE UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH EASTWARD...AND A COOL FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE CWA. COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SD...WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
PUTTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
IN THE 60S...WITH 50S IN THE HILLS.


&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MT INTO
EASTERN CO. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN WITH
READINGS 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE CWA. RESULT WILL
BE COOL-DOWN ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...MIGHT BE SOME
-SHSN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SD TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 210914
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
314 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY COVERS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST. SURFACE HIGH IS TO THE EAST
AND SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST WEST OF THE AREA. BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHWEST DOWN-SLOPING FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE INCOMING
TROUGH AND EXITING SURFACE HIGH WILL CREATE SOME GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE WINDS COULD
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. MOIST AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO
WESTERN SD...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

TONIGHT THE UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH EASTWARD...AND A COOL FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE CWA. COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SD...WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
PUTTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
IN THE 60S...WITH 50S IN THE HILLS.


&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MT INTO
EASTERN CO. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN WITH
READINGS 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE CWA. RESULT WILL
BE COOL-DOWN ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...MIGHT BE SOME
-SHSN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SD TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON








000
FXUS63 KUNR 210521
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1121 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WAS DOMINATING OUR WEATHER TODAY PER WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGES...WHILE A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WAS MOVING TOWARD
THE WRN CONUS. SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE CWA WITH TEMPS 10-15F
ABOVE AVERAGE. SFC PRESSURE FALLS AND A TIGHTENING MSLP GRADIENT
WAS SUPPORTING SLY WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS.

FOR TNGT THE MILD AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS AND A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE CWA. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 850MB WINDS OF 15-40 KT WILL HELP
KEEP THE BLYR MIXED...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS AT THE SFC.

ON TUESDAY THE STRONGEST 850-MB WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SD PLAINS
EAST OF THE BLKHLS...WITH SPEEDS OF 25-40 KT. MAY HIT BORDERLINE
WIND ADVY CONDITIONS ACROSS SCNTRL SD FROM 15-24Z. ACROSS NERN WY
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST BEHIND A SFC TROUGH. ALSO ON TUESDAY
AFTN THE SFC DEWPTS SHOULD INCREASE TO 45-50F ACROSS MUCH OF THE SD
PLAINS (AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH) AS LAPSE RATES REACH 7.5 C/KM. THIS
WILL PRODUCE MLCAPE OF 100-250 J/KG WITH MLCIN ALMOST AS HIGH. EVEN
THOUGH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE LACKING. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT ANY DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION DURING THE DAY.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MT WITH A SFC
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WRN SD. AGAIN...LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING...THUS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME SMALL POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS PARTS OF
SRN SD WHERE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT AND MUCAPE OF
250-500 J/KG MAY HELP INITIATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

WEAK UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND USHER
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION OVER SCNTRL
SD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE CNTRL CONUS AND
BRING DRY WX AND MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT
TROF APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SUPPORT STRONG LL
FLOW...WITH A LLJ OVER THE SD PLAINS TONIGHT. AREAS OF LL WIND
SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS WITHIN 1 KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE
THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY WHERE SFC WINDS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC








000
FXUS63 KUNR 210521
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1121 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WAS DOMINATING OUR WEATHER TODAY PER WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGES...WHILE A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WAS MOVING TOWARD
THE WRN CONUS. SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE CWA WITH TEMPS 10-15F
ABOVE AVERAGE. SFC PRESSURE FALLS AND A TIGHTENING MSLP GRADIENT
WAS SUPPORTING SLY WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS.

FOR TNGT THE MILD AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS AND A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE CWA. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 850MB WINDS OF 15-40 KT WILL HELP
KEEP THE BLYR MIXED...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS AT THE SFC.

ON TUESDAY THE STRONGEST 850-MB WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SD PLAINS
EAST OF THE BLKHLS...WITH SPEEDS OF 25-40 KT. MAY HIT BORDERLINE
WIND ADVY CONDITIONS ACROSS SCNTRL SD FROM 15-24Z. ACROSS NERN WY
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST BEHIND A SFC TROUGH. ALSO ON TUESDAY
AFTN THE SFC DEWPTS SHOULD INCREASE TO 45-50F ACROSS MUCH OF THE SD
PLAINS (AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH) AS LAPSE RATES REACH 7.5 C/KM. THIS
WILL PRODUCE MLCAPE OF 100-250 J/KG WITH MLCIN ALMOST AS HIGH. EVEN
THOUGH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE LACKING. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT ANY DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION DURING THE DAY.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MT WITH A SFC
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WRN SD. AGAIN...LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING...THUS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME SMALL POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS PARTS OF
SRN SD WHERE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT AND MUCAPE OF
250-500 J/KG MAY HELP INITIATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

WEAK UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND USHER
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION OVER SCNTRL
SD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE CNTRL CONUS AND
BRING DRY WX AND MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT
TROF APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SUPPORT STRONG LL
FLOW...WITH A LLJ OVER THE SD PLAINS TONIGHT. AREAS OF LL WIND
SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS WITHIN 1 KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE
THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY WHERE SFC WINDS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 202318
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
518 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WAS DOMINATING OUR WEATHER TODAY PER WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGES...WHILE A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WAS MOVING TOWARD
THE WRN CONUS. SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE CWA WITH TEMPS 10-15F
ABOVE AVERAGE. SFC PRESSURE FALLS AND A TIGHTENING MSLP GRADIENT
WAS SUPPORTING SLY WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS.

FOR TNGT THE MILD AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS AND A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE CWA. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 850MB WINDS OF 15-40 KT WILL HELP
KEEP THE BLYR MIXED...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS AT THE SFC.

ON TUESDAY THE STRONGEST 850-MB WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SD PLAINS
EAST OF THE BLKHLS...WITH SPEEDS OF 25-40 KT. MAY HIT BORDERLINE
WIND ADVY CONDITIONS ACROSS SCNTRL SD FROM 15-24Z. ACROSS NERN WY
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST BEHIND A SFC TROUGH. ALSO ON TUESDAY
AFTN THE SFC DEWPTS SHOULD INCREASE TO 45-50F ACROSS MUCH OF THE SD
PLAINS (AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH) AS LAPSE RATES REACH 7.5 C/KM. THIS
WILL PRODUCE MLCAPE OF 100-250 J/KG WITH MLCIN ALMOST AS HIGH. EVEN
THOUGH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE LACKING. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT ANY DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION DURING THE DAY.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MT WITH A SFC
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WRN SD. AGAIN...LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING...THUS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME SMALL POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS PARTS OF
SRN SD WHERE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT AND MUCAPE OF
250-500 J/KG MAY HELP INITIATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA.


&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

WEAK UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND USHER
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION OVER SCNTRL
SD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE CNTRL CONUS AND
BRING DRY WX AND MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT
TROF APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SUPPORT STRONG LL
FLOW...WITH A LLJ EXPECTED OVER THE SD PLAINS TONIGHT. AREAS OF LL
WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE THROUGH
TONIGHT...MAINLY WHERE SFC WINDS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC








000
FXUS63 KUNR 202318
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
518 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WAS DOMINATING OUR WEATHER TODAY PER WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGES...WHILE A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WAS MOVING TOWARD
THE WRN CONUS. SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE CWA WITH TEMPS 10-15F
ABOVE AVERAGE. SFC PRESSURE FALLS AND A TIGHTENING MSLP GRADIENT
WAS SUPPORTING SLY WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS.

FOR TNGT THE MILD AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS AND A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE CWA. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 850MB WINDS OF 15-40 KT WILL HELP
KEEP THE BLYR MIXED...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS AT THE SFC.

ON TUESDAY THE STRONGEST 850-MB WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SD PLAINS
EAST OF THE BLKHLS...WITH SPEEDS OF 25-40 KT. MAY HIT BORDERLINE
WIND ADVY CONDITIONS ACROSS SCNTRL SD FROM 15-24Z. ACROSS NERN WY
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST BEHIND A SFC TROUGH. ALSO ON TUESDAY
AFTN THE SFC DEWPTS SHOULD INCREASE TO 45-50F ACROSS MUCH OF THE SD
PLAINS (AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH) AS LAPSE RATES REACH 7.5 C/KM. THIS
WILL PRODUCE MLCAPE OF 100-250 J/KG WITH MLCIN ALMOST AS HIGH. EVEN
THOUGH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE LACKING. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT ANY DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION DURING THE DAY.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MT WITH A SFC
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WRN SD. AGAIN...LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING...THUS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME SMALL POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS PARTS OF
SRN SD WHERE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT AND MUCAPE OF
250-500 J/KG MAY HELP INITIATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA.


&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

WEAK UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND USHER
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION OVER SCNTRL
SD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE CNTRL CONUS AND
BRING DRY WX AND MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT
TROF APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SUPPORT STRONG LL
FLOW...WITH A LLJ EXPECTED OVER THE SD PLAINS TONIGHT. AREAS OF LL
WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE THROUGH
TONIGHT...MAINLY WHERE SFC WINDS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 201922
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
122 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WAS DOMINATING OUR WEATHER TODAY PER WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGES...WHILE A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WAS MOVING TOWARD
THE WRN CONUS. SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE CWA WITH TEMPS 10-15F
ABOVE AVERAGE. SFC PRESSURE FALLS AND A TIGHTENING MSLP GRADIENT
WAS SUPPORTING SLY WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS.

FOR TNGT THE MILD AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS AND A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE CWA. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 850MB WINDS OF 15-40 KT WILL HELP
KEEP THE BLYR MIXED...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS AT THE SFC.

ON TUESDAY THE STRONGEST 850-MB WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SD PLAINS
EAST OF THE BLKHLS...WITH SPEEDS OF 25-40 KT. MAY HIT BORDERLINE
WIND ADVY CONDITIONS ACROSS SCNTRL SD FROM 15-24Z. ACROSS NERN WY
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST BEHIND A SFC TROUGH. ALSO ON TUESDAY
AFTN THE SFC DEWPTS SHOULD INCREASE TO 45-50F ACROSS MUCH OF THE SD
PLAINS (AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH) AS LAPSE RATES REACH 7.5 C/KM. THIS
WILL PRODUCE MLCAPE OF 100-250 J/KG WITH MLCIN ALMOST AS HIGH. EVEN
THOUGH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE LACKING. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT ANY DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION DURING THE DAY.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MT WITH A SFC
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WRN SD. AGAIN...LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING...THUS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME SMALL POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS PARTS OF
SRN SD WHERE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT AND MUCAPE OF
250-500 J/KG MAY HELP INITIATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

WEAK UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND USHER
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION OVER SCNTRL
SD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE CNTRL CONUS AND
BRING DRY WX AND MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT
TROF APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 201922
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
122 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WAS DOMINATING OUR WEATHER TODAY PER WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGES...WHILE A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WAS MOVING TOWARD
THE WRN CONUS. SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE CWA WITH TEMPS 10-15F
ABOVE AVERAGE. SFC PRESSURE FALLS AND A TIGHTENING MSLP GRADIENT
WAS SUPPORTING SLY WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS.

FOR TNGT THE MILD AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS AND A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE CWA. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 850MB WINDS OF 15-40 KT WILL HELP
KEEP THE BLYR MIXED...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS AT THE SFC.

ON TUESDAY THE STRONGEST 850-MB WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SD PLAINS
EAST OF THE BLKHLS...WITH SPEEDS OF 25-40 KT. MAY HIT BORDERLINE
WIND ADVY CONDITIONS ACROSS SCNTRL SD FROM 15-24Z. ACROSS NERN WY
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST BEHIND A SFC TROUGH. ALSO ON TUESDAY
AFTN THE SFC DEWPTS SHOULD INCREASE TO 45-50F ACROSS MUCH OF THE SD
PLAINS (AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH) AS LAPSE RATES REACH 7.5 C/KM. THIS
WILL PRODUCE MLCAPE OF 100-250 J/KG WITH MLCIN ALMOST AS HIGH. EVEN
THOUGH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE LACKING. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT ANY DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION DURING THE DAY.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MT WITH A SFC
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WRN SD. AGAIN...LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING...THUS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME SMALL POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS PARTS OF
SRN SD WHERE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT AND MUCAPE OF
250-500 J/KG MAY HELP INITIATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

WEAK UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND USHER
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION OVER SCNTRL
SD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE CNTRL CONUS AND
BRING DRY WX AND MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT
TROF APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 201701
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1101 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS A WAVE DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE CLEAR. TEMPS ARE IN
AND AROUND THE 40S.

UPPER RIDGE WILL MAKE FOR A DRY AND MILD BEGINNING TO THE WEEK WITH
SUNNY SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP ACROSS WESTERN SD TODAY. SLIGHTLY
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT IN WARM AIR...RESULTING IN ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON TUESDAY...CAUSING BREEZIER WINDS AND
MORE WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION. TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. BREEZY OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S.


&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPPER TROF CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST LIFT/MOISTURE
SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID DAY. UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON








000
FXUS63 KUNR 201701
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1101 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS A WAVE DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE CLEAR. TEMPS ARE IN
AND AROUND THE 40S.

UPPER RIDGE WILL MAKE FOR A DRY AND MILD BEGINNING TO THE WEEK WITH
SUNNY SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP ACROSS WESTERN SD TODAY. SLIGHTLY
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT IN WARM AIR...RESULTING IN ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON TUESDAY...CAUSING BREEZIER WINDS AND
MORE WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION. TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. BREEZY OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S.


&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPPER TROF CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST LIFT/MOISTURE
SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID DAY. UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 200802
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
202 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS A WAVE DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE CLEAR. TEMPS ARE IN
AND AROUND THE 40S.

UPPER RIDGE WILL MAKE FOR A DRY AND MILD BEGINNING TO THE WEEK WITH
SUNNY SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP ACROSS WESTERN SD TODAY. SLIGHTLY
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT IN WARM AIR...RESULTING IN ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON TUESDAY...CAUSING BREEZIER WINDS AND
MORE WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION. TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. BREEZY OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPPER TROF CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST LIFT/MOISTURE
SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID DAY. UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7








000
FXUS63 KUNR 200802
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
202 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS A WAVE DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE CLEAR. TEMPS ARE IN
AND AROUND THE 40S.

UPPER RIDGE WILL MAKE FOR A DRY AND MILD BEGINNING TO THE WEEK WITH
SUNNY SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP ACROSS WESTERN SD TODAY. SLIGHTLY
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT IN WARM AIR...RESULTING IN ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON TUESDAY...CAUSING BREEZIER WINDS AND
MORE WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION. TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. BREEZY OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPPER TROF CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST LIFT/MOISTURE
SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID DAY. UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS63 KUNR 200802
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
202 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS A WAVE DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE CLEAR. TEMPS ARE IN
AND AROUND THE 40S.

UPPER RIDGE WILL MAKE FOR A DRY AND MILD BEGINNING TO THE WEEK WITH
SUNNY SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP ACROSS WESTERN SD TODAY. SLIGHTLY
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT IN WARM AIR...RESULTING IN ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON TUESDAY...CAUSING BREEZIER WINDS AND
MORE WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION. TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. BREEZY OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPPER TROF CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST LIFT/MOISTURE
SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID DAY. UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7








000
FXUS63 KUNR 200802
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
202 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS A WAVE DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE CLEAR. TEMPS ARE IN
AND AROUND THE 40S.

UPPER RIDGE WILL MAKE FOR A DRY AND MILD BEGINNING TO THE WEEK WITH
SUNNY SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP ACROSS WESTERN SD TODAY. SLIGHTLY
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT IN WARM AIR...RESULTING IN ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON TUESDAY...CAUSING BREEZIER WINDS AND
MORE WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION. TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. BREEZY OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPPER TROF CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST LIFT/MOISTURE
SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID DAY. UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS63 KUNR 200455
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1055 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A DOMINATE INFLUENCE OF THE
WEATHER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL SIT OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS...KEEPING DRY WEATHER AND HARDLY EVEN A CLOUD
IN THE SKY. RETURN FLOW CONTINUES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
MONDAY. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S. S/SELY WINDS AT 10-15KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN SD
PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT RETURNING. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD...VERY WARM TEMPS
EXPECTED NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. UPPER TROF THEN SLIDES
THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC








000
FXUS63 KUNR 200455
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1055 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A DOMINATE INFLUENCE OF THE
WEATHER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL SIT OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS...KEEPING DRY WEATHER AND HARDLY EVEN A CLOUD
IN THE SKY. RETURN FLOW CONTINUES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
MONDAY. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S. S/SELY WINDS AT 10-15KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN SD
PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT RETURNING. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD...VERY WARM TEMPS
EXPECTED NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. UPPER TROF THEN SLIDES
THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 192333
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
533 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A DOMINATE INFLUENCE OF THE
WEATHER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL SIT OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS...KEEPING DRY WEATHER AND HARDLY EVEN A CLOUD
IN THE SKY. RETURN FLOW CONTINUES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
MONDAY. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S. S/SELY WINDS AT 10-15KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN SD
PLAINS.


&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT RETURNING. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD...VERY WARM TEMPS
EXPECTED NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. UPPER TROF THEN SLIDES
THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 192333
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
533 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A DOMINATE INFLUENCE OF THE
WEATHER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL SIT OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS...KEEPING DRY WEATHER AND HARDLY EVEN A CLOUD
IN THE SKY. RETURN FLOW CONTINUES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
MONDAY. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S. S/SELY WINDS AT 10-15KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN SD
PLAINS.


&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT RETURNING. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD...VERY WARM TEMPS
EXPECTED NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. UPPER TROF THEN SLIDES
THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC








000
FXUS63 KUNR 192333
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
533 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A DOMINATE INFLUENCE OF THE
WEATHER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL SIT OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS...KEEPING DRY WEATHER AND HARDLY EVEN A CLOUD
IN THE SKY. RETURN FLOW CONTINUES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
MONDAY. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S. S/SELY WINDS AT 10-15KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN SD
PLAINS.


&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT RETURNING. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD...VERY WARM TEMPS
EXPECTED NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. UPPER TROF THEN SLIDES
THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC








000
FXUS63 KUNR 192333
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
533 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A DOMINATE INFLUENCE OF THE
WEATHER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL SIT OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS...KEEPING DRY WEATHER AND HARDLY EVEN A CLOUD
IN THE SKY. RETURN FLOW CONTINUES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
MONDAY. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S. S/SELY WINDS AT 10-15KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN SD
PLAINS.


&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT RETURNING. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD...VERY WARM TEMPS
EXPECTED NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. UPPER TROF THEN SLIDES
THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 192015
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
215 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A DOMINATE INFLUENCE OF THE
WEATHER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL SIT OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS...KEEPING DRY WEATHER AND HARDLY EVEN A CLOUD
IN THE SKY. RETURN FLOW CONTINUES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
MONDAY. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S. S/SELY WINDS AT 10-15KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN SD
PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT RETURNING. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD...VERY WARM TEMPS
EXPECTED NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. UPPER TROF THEN SLIDES
THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON








000
FXUS63 KUNR 192015
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
215 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A DOMINATE INFLUENCE OF THE
WEATHER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL SIT OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS...KEEPING DRY WEATHER AND HARDLY EVEN A CLOUD
IN THE SKY. RETURN FLOW CONTINUES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
MONDAY. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S. S/SELY WINDS AT 10-15KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN SD
PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT RETURNING. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD...VERY WARM TEMPS
EXPECTED NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. UPPER TROF THEN SLIDES
THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 191700
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1100 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 201 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE...PUSHING SOME CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. AXIS OF
SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY THROUGH WESTERN SD. WINDS ARE EITHER
CALM OR LIGHT AND SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES TODAY...SHIFTING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES INTO
THE REGION TODAY...AND SKIES WILL BE SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW
70S...60S IN THE BLACK HILLS. RETURN FLOW SETS UP AGAIN MONDAY AS
HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE CWA...CREATING SOMEWHAT BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND ADVECTING IN MORE WARM AIR. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S UNDER CLEAR SKIES. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.


&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 201 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. BL-850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 80...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. UPPER TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WEDNESDAY WILL BE
THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON








000
FXUS63 KUNR 190804
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
204 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 201 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE...PUSHING SOME CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. AXIS OF
SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY THROUGH WESTERN SD. WINDS ARE EITHER
CALM OR LIGHT AND SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES TODAY...SHIFTING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES INTO
THE REGION TODAY...AND SKIES WILL BE SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW
70S...60S IN THE BLACK HILLS. RETURN FLOW SETS UP AGAIN MONDAY AS
HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE CWA...CREATING SOMEWHAT BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND ADVECTING IN MORE WARM AIR. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S UNDER CLEAR SKIES. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 201 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. BL-850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 80...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. UPPER TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WEDNESDAY WILL BE
THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 201 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7








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