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000
FXUS63 KUNR 291052
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
452 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE A COOL FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF
SHOWERS WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NERN WY AND WRN SD. THE
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AND SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY...ALLOWING ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE AREA. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY...BUT WEAK ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE RIDGE MAY PRODUCE
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GREATER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS A WESTERN TROUGH REDEVELOPS AND UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. HIGHS NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA
TODAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION...WITH SOME LOCAL IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE





000
FXUS63 KUNR 291052
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
452 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE A COOL FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF
SHOWERS WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NERN WY AND WRN SD. THE
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AND SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY...ALLOWING ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE AREA. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY...BUT WEAK ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE RIDGE MAY PRODUCE
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GREATER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS A WESTERN TROUGH REDEVELOPS AND UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. HIGHS NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA
TODAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION...WITH SOME LOCAL IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 290847
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
247 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE A COOL FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF
SHOWERS WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NERN WY AND WRN SD. THE
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AND SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY...ALLOWING ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE AREA. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY...BUT WEAK ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE RIDGE MAY PRODUCE
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GREATER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS A WESTERN TROUGH REDEVELOPS AND UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. HIGHS NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA
TODAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION...WITH SOME LOCAL IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 290847
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
247 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE A COOL FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF
SHOWERS WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NERN WY AND WRN SD. THE
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AND SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY...ALLOWING ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE AREA. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY...BUT WEAK ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE RIDGE MAY PRODUCE
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GREATER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS A WESTERN TROUGH REDEVELOPS AND UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. HIGHS NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA
TODAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION...WITH SOME LOCAL IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE





000
FXUS63 KUNR 290443
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1043 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ND WITH TROUGH INTO
NORTHEAST CO. COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO CENTRAL MT/ND...AND
STARTING TO PICK UP SOME SPEED AS IT MOVES SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD SOUTH OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION ALONG TROUGH WANING WITH LOSS OF SOLAR
INSOLATION...BUT ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT STARTING TO
ENTER CWA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES INTO CWA FROM
MT/WY...SPINNING AROUND UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL WY. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS...SO MAIN IDEA WITH UPDATE WAS TO HONE
TIMING AND TWEAK TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PLACES CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST WYOMING. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA. UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY ALONG WY/CO BORDER
OVERNIGHT...AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY. WITH DECENT QG
FORCING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
RETURN FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GREATER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WESTERN TROF
REDEVELOPS AND UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHRA/TSRA WILL TREND TOWARD SHRA WITH ISOLATED TS LATER TONIGHT
AND JUST SHRA FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE COMMON WITH THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...BUT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITH LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 290443
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1043 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ND WITH TROUGH INTO
NORTHEAST CO. COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO CENTRAL MT/ND...AND
STARTING TO PICK UP SOME SPEED AS IT MOVES SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD SOUTH OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION ALONG TROUGH WANING WITH LOSS OF SOLAR
INSOLATION...BUT ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT STARTING TO
ENTER CWA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES INTO CWA FROM
MT/WY...SPINNING AROUND UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL WY. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS...SO MAIN IDEA WITH UPDATE WAS TO HONE
TIMING AND TWEAK TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PLACES CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST WYOMING. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA. UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY ALONG WY/CO BORDER
OVERNIGHT...AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY. WITH DECENT QG
FORCING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
RETURN FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GREATER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WESTERN TROF
REDEVELOPS AND UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHRA/TSRA WILL TREND TOWARD SHRA WITH ISOLATED TS LATER TONIGHT
AND JUST SHRA FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE COMMON WITH THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...BUT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITH LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 290443
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1043 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ND WITH TROUGH INTO
NORTHEAST CO. COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO CENTRAL MT/ND...AND
STARTING TO PICK UP SOME SPEED AS IT MOVES SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD SOUTH OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION ALONG TROUGH WANING WITH LOSS OF SOLAR
INSOLATION...BUT ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT STARTING TO
ENTER CWA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES INTO CWA FROM
MT/WY...SPINNING AROUND UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL WY. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS...SO MAIN IDEA WITH UPDATE WAS TO HONE
TIMING AND TWEAK TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PLACES CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST WYOMING. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA. UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY ALONG WY/CO BORDER
OVERNIGHT...AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY. WITH DECENT QG
FORCING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
RETURN FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GREATER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WESTERN TROF
REDEVELOPS AND UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHRA/TSRA WILL TREND TOWARD SHRA WITH ISOLATED TS LATER TONIGHT
AND JUST SHRA FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE COMMON WITH THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...BUT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITH LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 290443
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1043 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ND WITH TROUGH INTO
NORTHEAST CO. COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO CENTRAL MT/ND...AND
STARTING TO PICK UP SOME SPEED AS IT MOVES SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD SOUTH OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION ALONG TROUGH WANING WITH LOSS OF SOLAR
INSOLATION...BUT ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT STARTING TO
ENTER CWA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES INTO CWA FROM
MT/WY...SPINNING AROUND UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL WY. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS...SO MAIN IDEA WITH UPDATE WAS TO HONE
TIMING AND TWEAK TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PLACES CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST WYOMING. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA. UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY ALONG WY/CO BORDER
OVERNIGHT...AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY. WITH DECENT QG
FORCING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
RETURN FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GREATER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WESTERN TROF
REDEVELOPS AND UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHRA/TSRA WILL TREND TOWARD SHRA WITH ISOLATED TS LATER TONIGHT
AND JUST SHRA FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE COMMON WITH THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...BUT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITH LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 290258
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
858 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ND WITH TROUGH INTO
NORTHEAST CO. COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO CENTRAL MT/ND...AND
STARTING TO PICK UP SOME SPEED AS IT MOVES SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD SOUTH OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION ALONG TROUGH WANING WITH LOSS OF SOLAR
INSOLATION...BUT ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT STARTING TO
ENTER CWA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES INTO CWA FROM
MT/WY...SPINNING AROUND UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL WY. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS...SO MAIN IDEA WITH UPDATE WAS TO HONE
TIMING AND TWEAK TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PLACES CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST WYOMING. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA. UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY ALONG WY/CO BORDER
OVERNIGHT...AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY. WITH DECENT QG
FORCING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
RETURN FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GREATER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WESTERN TROF
REDEVELOPS AND UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHRA/TSRA WILL TREND TOWARD SHRA WITH ISOLATED TS LATER TONIGHT
AND JUST SHRA FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE COMMON WITH THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...BUT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITH LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 290258
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
858 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ND WITH TROUGH INTO
NORTHEAST CO. COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO CENTRAL MT/ND...AND
STARTING TO PICK UP SOME SPEED AS IT MOVES SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD SOUTH OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION ALONG TROUGH WANING WITH LOSS OF SOLAR
INSOLATION...BUT ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT STARTING TO
ENTER CWA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES INTO CWA FROM
MT/WY...SPINNING AROUND UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL WY. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS...SO MAIN IDEA WITH UPDATE WAS TO HONE
TIMING AND TWEAK TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PLACES CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST WYOMING. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA. UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY ALONG WY/CO BORDER
OVERNIGHT...AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY. WITH DECENT QG
FORCING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
RETURN FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GREATER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WESTERN TROF
REDEVELOPS AND UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHRA/TSRA WILL TREND TOWARD SHRA WITH ISOLATED TS LATER TONIGHT
AND JUST SHRA FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE COMMON WITH THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...BUT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITH LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 282324
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
524 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PLACES CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST WYOMING. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA. UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY ALONG WY/CO BORDER
OVERNIGHT...AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY. WITH DECENT QG
FORCING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
RETURN FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GREATER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WESTERN TROF
REDEVELOPS AND UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHRA/TSRA WILL TREND TOWARD SHRA WITH ISOLATED TS LATER TONIGHT
AND JUST SHRA FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE COMMON WITH THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...BUT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITH LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 282324
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
524 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PLACES CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST WYOMING. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA. UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY ALONG WY/CO BORDER
OVERNIGHT...AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY. WITH DECENT QG
FORCING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
RETURN FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GREATER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WESTERN TROF
REDEVELOPS AND UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHRA/TSRA WILL TREND TOWARD SHRA WITH ISOLATED TS LATER TONIGHT
AND JUST SHRA FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE COMMON WITH THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...BUT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITH LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 282056
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
256 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PLACES CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST WYOMING. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA. UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY ALONG WY/CO BORDER
OVERNIGHT...AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY. WITH DECENT QG
FORCING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
RETURN FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GREATER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WESTERN TROF
REDEVELOPS AND UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY
WINDS NEAR ANY STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 282056
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
256 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PLACES CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST WYOMING. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA. UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY ALONG WY/CO BORDER
OVERNIGHT...AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY. WITH DECENT QG
FORCING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
RETURN FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GREATER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WESTERN TROF
REDEVELOPS AND UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY
WINDS NEAR ANY STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13





000
FXUS63 KUNR 281713
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1113 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN MONTANA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY
INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A SLOW
MOVING N-S ORIENTED TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT LL MOISTURE AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH WHERE LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO ML CAPE
AROUND 1700J/KG THIS AFTN. LCLY HVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLKHLS THIS AFTN WHICH COULD INCREASE
FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE CREEKS AND STREAMS WHICH ARE ALREADY
RUNNING HIGH DUE TO THE RECENT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT SUPPORTING AN
ENHANCED AREA OF CONVERGENCE WITH SHRA CHANCES CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND...AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...BUT THERMAL
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A
WARM-UP...WITH SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN
TROF REDEVELOPS AND UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF PRECIPITATION...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY
STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...13





000
FXUS63 KUNR 281713
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1113 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN MONTANA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY
INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A SLOW
MOVING N-S ORIENTED TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT LL MOISTURE AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH WHERE LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO ML CAPE
AROUND 1700J/KG THIS AFTN. LCLY HVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLKHLS THIS AFTN WHICH COULD INCREASE
FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE CREEKS AND STREAMS WHICH ARE ALREADY
RUNNING HIGH DUE TO THE RECENT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT SUPPORTING AN
ENHANCED AREA OF CONVERGENCE WITH SHRA CHANCES CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND...AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...BUT THERMAL
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A
WARM-UP...WITH SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN
TROF REDEVELOPS AND UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF PRECIPITATION...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY
STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 280947
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
347 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN MONTANA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY
INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A SLOW
MOVING N-S ORIENTED TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT LL MOISTURE AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH WHERE LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO ML CAPE
AROUND 1700J/KG THIS AFTN. LCLY HVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLKHLS THIS AFTN WHICH COULD INCREASE
FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE CREEKS AND STREAMS WHICH ARE ALREADY
RUNNING HIGH DUE TO THE RECENT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT SUPPORTING AN
ENHANCED AREA OF CONVERGENCE WITH SHRA CHANCES CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND...AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...BUT THERMAL
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A
WARM-UP...WITH SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN
TROF REDEVELOPS AND UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE SHIFT NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR
ANY STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15




000
FXUS63 KUNR 280947
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
347 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN MONTANA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY
INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A SLOW
MOVING N-S ORIENTED TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT LL MOISTURE AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH WHERE LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO ML CAPE
AROUND 1700J/KG THIS AFTN. LCLY HVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLKHLS THIS AFTN WHICH COULD INCREASE
FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE CREEKS AND STREAMS WHICH ARE ALREADY
RUNNING HIGH DUE TO THE RECENT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT SUPPORTING AN
ENHANCED AREA OF CONVERGENCE WITH SHRA CHANCES CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND...AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...BUT THERMAL
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A
WARM-UP...WITH SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN
TROF REDEVELOPS AND UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE SHIFT NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR
ANY STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15





000
FXUS63 KUNR 280947
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
347 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN MONTANA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY
INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A SLOW
MOVING N-S ORIENTED TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT LL MOISTURE AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH WHERE LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO ML CAPE
AROUND 1700J/KG THIS AFTN. LCLY HVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLKHLS THIS AFTN WHICH COULD INCREASE
FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE CREEKS AND STREAMS WHICH ARE ALREADY
RUNNING HIGH DUE TO THE RECENT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT SUPPORTING AN
ENHANCED AREA OF CONVERGENCE WITH SHRA CHANCES CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND...AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...BUT THERMAL
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A
WARM-UP...WITH SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN
TROF REDEVELOPS AND UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE SHIFT NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR
ANY STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15




000
FXUS63 KUNR 280537
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1137 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOUR/RADAR LOOPS SHOWED PRIMARY WAVE -TSRA HEADING
EAST/NORTHEAST AND WILL EXIT THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING. AFTERNOON
RAP PICKS UP ON NEXT SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST WY...WHICH WILL PUSH
INTO WESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE UPPED POPS IN
THE WEST LATE TO ACCOUNT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST IN THE PERIOD. A EASTERN PERIPHERY WEAK IMPULSE/JET STREAK IS
IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING NE OUT OF WY...SUPPORTING SCT-NUMEROUS
SHRA AND TS ACROSS THE FA. JET STREAK WILL LIFT NE THIS
EVENING...WITH FORCING AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIFTING NE. HIRES
ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE AOA 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE MAINLY IN A
NORTH/SOUTH AXIS ON THE SD PLAINS. AS CONVECTION LIFTS NE INTO
THIS AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED. BEST CHANCES/COVERAGE OF SHRA/TS WILL BE ACROSS NW SD
WHERE THE BEST LL CONVERGENCE AND LSA WILL OVERLAP. LL SFC TROUGH
WILL SHIFT SE INTO THE FA THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY STALLING OVER
SCENTRAL SD. MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
EAST OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN LSA AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING LINGERING
SHRA INTO THE FAR WESTERN FA BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. DRIED MOST
PLACES OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE FAR WEST TOWARD DAWN. DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER
THE AREA AND SUPPORT INCREASING LSA OVER MOST OF THE REGION
THURSDAY. MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE IN PLACE/DIURNAL
HEATING/AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED SFC TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONNECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE FA...ESP IN THE BH
WHERE CIN WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER SCENTRAL SD AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH WHERE ONGOING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE WARMER SECTOR WILL SUPPORT ML CAPES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHEAR REMAINS QUITE
LIMITED WITH 20-25 KNOTS PROGGED WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE WILL BE.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE BH. STEEP LL
LAPSE RATES/HIGH PW/S OVER AN INCH/ENHANCED CONVERGENCE PER EDDY
EFFECTS/AND SLOW STORM MOTION VECTORS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE BH
FOR MUCH OF THUR AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE A
WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE BLACK HILLS WHICH
COULD AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING CONCERNS. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL
SHIFT SOUTH THUR NIGHT AND SUPPORT AN ENHANCED AREA OF CONVERGENCE
WITH SHRA CHANCES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. KEPT POPS FAIRLY HIGH
THROUGH THUR NIGHT...WITH A SOUTHWARD SHIFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH ALONG WITH LSA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON SATURDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES
THROUGH. THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A WARMUP...WITH SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

-SHRA/-TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/FAR
WESTERN SD WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 272348
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
548 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOUR/RADAR LOOPS SHOWED PRIMARY WAVE -TSRA HEADING
EAST/NORTHEAST AND WILL EXIT THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING. AFTERNOON
RAP PICKS UP ON NEXT SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST WY...WHICH WILL PUSH
INTO WESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE UPPED POPS IN
THE WEST LATE TO ACCOUNT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST IN THE PERIOD. A EASTERN PERIPHERY WEAK IMPULSE/JET STREAK IS
IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING NE OUT OF WY...SUPPORTING SCT-NUMEROUS
SHRA AND TS ACROSS THE FA. JET STREAK WILL LIFT NE THIS
EVENING...WITH FORCING AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIFTING NE. HIRES
ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE AOA 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE MAINLY IN A
NORTH/SOUTH AXIS ON THE SD PLAINS. AS CONVECTION LIFTS NE INTO
THIS AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED. BEST CHANCES/COVERAGE OF SHRA/TS WILL BE ACROSS NW SD
WHERE THE BEST LL CONVERGENCE AND LSA WILL OVERLAP. LL SFC TROUGH
WILL SHIFT SE INTO THE FA THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY STALLING OVER
SCENTRAL SD. MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
EAST OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN LSA AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING LINGERING
SHRA INTO THE FAR WESTERN FA BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. DRIED MOST
PLACES OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE FAR WEST TOWARD DAWN. DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER
THE AREA AND SUPPORT INCREASING LSA OVER MOST OF THE REGION
THURSDAY. MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE IN PLACE/DIURNAL
HEATING/AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED SFC TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONNECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE FA...ESP IN THE BH
WHERE CIN WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER SCENTRAL SD AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH WHERE ONGOING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE WARMER SECTOR WILL SUPPORT ML CAPES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHEAR REMAINS QUITE
LIMITED WITH 20-25 KNOTS PROGGED WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE WILL BE.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE BH. STEEP LL
LAPSE RATES/HIGH PW/S OVER AN INCH/ENHANCED CONVERGENCE PER EDDY
EFFECTS/AND SLOW STORM MOTION VECTORS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE BH
FOR MUCH OF THUR AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE A
WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE BLACK HILLS WHICH
COULD AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING CONCERNS. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL
SHIFT SOUTH THUR NIGHT AND SUPPORT AN ENHANCED AREA OF CONVERGENCE
WITH SHRA CHANCES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. KEPT POPS FAIRLY HIGH
THROUGH THUR NIGHT...WITH A SOUTHWARD SHIFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH ALONG WITH LSA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON SATURDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES
THROUGH. THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A WARMUP...WITH SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

-SHRA/-TSRA WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL -SHRA WILL DEVELOP
OVER NORTHEAST WY LATER TONIGHT AND THEN EXPAND OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY...INCLUDING INCREASING POCKETS OF TSRA. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 272348
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
548 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOUR/RADAR LOOPS SHOWED PRIMARY WAVE -TSRA HEADING
EAST/NORTHEAST AND WILL EXIT THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING. AFTERNOON
RAP PICKS UP ON NEXT SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST WY...WHICH WILL PUSH
INTO WESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE UPPED POPS IN
THE WEST LATE TO ACCOUNT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST IN THE PERIOD. A EASTERN PERIPHERY WEAK IMPULSE/JET STREAK IS
IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING NE OUT OF WY...SUPPORTING SCT-NUMEROUS
SHRA AND TS ACROSS THE FA. JET STREAK WILL LIFT NE THIS
EVENING...WITH FORCING AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIFTING NE. HIRES
ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE AOA 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE MAINLY IN A
NORTH/SOUTH AXIS ON THE SD PLAINS. AS CONVECTION LIFTS NE INTO
THIS AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED. BEST CHANCES/COVERAGE OF SHRA/TS WILL BE ACROSS NW SD
WHERE THE BEST LL CONVERGENCE AND LSA WILL OVERLAP. LL SFC TROUGH
WILL SHIFT SE INTO THE FA THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY STALLING OVER
SCENTRAL SD. MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
EAST OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN LSA AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING LINGERING
SHRA INTO THE FAR WESTERN FA BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. DRIED MOST
PLACES OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE FAR WEST TOWARD DAWN. DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER
THE AREA AND SUPPORT INCREASING LSA OVER MOST OF THE REGION
THURSDAY. MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE IN PLACE/DIURNAL
HEATING/AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED SFC TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONNECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE FA...ESP IN THE BH
WHERE CIN WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER SCENTRAL SD AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH WHERE ONGOING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE WARMER SECTOR WILL SUPPORT ML CAPES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHEAR REMAINS QUITE
LIMITED WITH 20-25 KNOTS PROGGED WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE WILL BE.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE BH. STEEP LL
LAPSE RATES/HIGH PW/S OVER AN INCH/ENHANCED CONVERGENCE PER EDDY
EFFECTS/AND SLOW STORM MOTION VECTORS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE BH
FOR MUCH OF THUR AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE A
WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE BLACK HILLS WHICH
COULD AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING CONCERNS. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL
SHIFT SOUTH THUR NIGHT AND SUPPORT AN ENHANCED AREA OF CONVERGENCE
WITH SHRA CHANCES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. KEPT POPS FAIRLY HIGH
THROUGH THUR NIGHT...WITH A SOUTHWARD SHIFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH ALONG WITH LSA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON SATURDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES
THROUGH. THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A WARMUP...WITH SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

-SHRA/-TSRA WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL -SHRA WILL DEVELOP
OVER NORTHEAST WY LATER TONIGHT AND THEN EXPAND OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY...INCLUDING INCREASING POCKETS OF TSRA. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 272348
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
548 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOUR/RADAR LOOPS SHOWED PRIMARY WAVE -TSRA HEADING
EAST/NORTHEAST AND WILL EXIT THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING. AFTERNOON
RAP PICKS UP ON NEXT SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST WY...WHICH WILL PUSH
INTO WESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE UPPED POPS IN
THE WEST LATE TO ACCOUNT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST IN THE PERIOD. A EASTERN PERIPHERY WEAK IMPULSE/JET STREAK IS
IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING NE OUT OF WY...SUPPORTING SCT-NUMEROUS
SHRA AND TS ACROSS THE FA. JET STREAK WILL LIFT NE THIS
EVENING...WITH FORCING AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIFTING NE. HIRES
ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE AOA 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE MAINLY IN A
NORTH/SOUTH AXIS ON THE SD PLAINS. AS CONVECTION LIFTS NE INTO
THIS AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED. BEST CHANCES/COVERAGE OF SHRA/TS WILL BE ACROSS NW SD
WHERE THE BEST LL CONVERGENCE AND LSA WILL OVERLAP. LL SFC TROUGH
WILL SHIFT SE INTO THE FA THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY STALLING OVER
SCENTRAL SD. MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
EAST OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN LSA AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING LINGERING
SHRA INTO THE FAR WESTERN FA BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. DRIED MOST
PLACES OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE FAR WEST TOWARD DAWN. DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER
THE AREA AND SUPPORT INCREASING LSA OVER MOST OF THE REGION
THURSDAY. MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE IN PLACE/DIURNAL
HEATING/AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED SFC TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONNECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE FA...ESP IN THE BH
WHERE CIN WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER SCENTRAL SD AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH WHERE ONGOING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE WARMER SECTOR WILL SUPPORT ML CAPES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHEAR REMAINS QUITE
LIMITED WITH 20-25 KNOTS PROGGED WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE WILL BE.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE BH. STEEP LL
LAPSE RATES/HIGH PW/S OVER AN INCH/ENHANCED CONVERGENCE PER EDDY
EFFECTS/AND SLOW STORM MOTION VECTORS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE BH
FOR MUCH OF THUR AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE A
WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE BLACK HILLS WHICH
COULD AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING CONCERNS. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL
SHIFT SOUTH THUR NIGHT AND SUPPORT AN ENHANCED AREA OF CONVERGENCE
WITH SHRA CHANCES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. KEPT POPS FAIRLY HIGH
THROUGH THUR NIGHT...WITH A SOUTHWARD SHIFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH ALONG WITH LSA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON SATURDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES
THROUGH. THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A WARMUP...WITH SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

-SHRA/-TSRA WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL -SHRA WILL DEVELOP
OVER NORTHEAST WY LATER TONIGHT AND THEN EXPAND OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY...INCLUDING INCREASING POCKETS OF TSRA. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 272348
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
548 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOUR/RADAR LOOPS SHOWED PRIMARY WAVE -TSRA HEADING
EAST/NORTHEAST AND WILL EXIT THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING. AFTERNOON
RAP PICKS UP ON NEXT SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST WY...WHICH WILL PUSH
INTO WESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE UPPED POPS IN
THE WEST LATE TO ACCOUNT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST IN THE PERIOD. A EASTERN PERIPHERY WEAK IMPULSE/JET STREAK IS
IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING NE OUT OF WY...SUPPORTING SCT-NUMEROUS
SHRA AND TS ACROSS THE FA. JET STREAK WILL LIFT NE THIS
EVENING...WITH FORCING AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIFTING NE. HIRES
ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE AOA 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE MAINLY IN A
NORTH/SOUTH AXIS ON THE SD PLAINS. AS CONVECTION LIFTS NE INTO
THIS AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED. BEST CHANCES/COVERAGE OF SHRA/TS WILL BE ACROSS NW SD
WHERE THE BEST LL CONVERGENCE AND LSA WILL OVERLAP. LL SFC TROUGH
WILL SHIFT SE INTO THE FA THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY STALLING OVER
SCENTRAL SD. MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
EAST OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN LSA AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING LINGERING
SHRA INTO THE FAR WESTERN FA BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. DRIED MOST
PLACES OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE FAR WEST TOWARD DAWN. DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER
THE AREA AND SUPPORT INCREASING LSA OVER MOST OF THE REGION
THURSDAY. MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE IN PLACE/DIURNAL
HEATING/AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED SFC TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONNECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE FA...ESP IN THE BH
WHERE CIN WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER SCENTRAL SD AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH WHERE ONGOING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE WARMER SECTOR WILL SUPPORT ML CAPES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHEAR REMAINS QUITE
LIMITED WITH 20-25 KNOTS PROGGED WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE WILL BE.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE BH. STEEP LL
LAPSE RATES/HIGH PW/S OVER AN INCH/ENHANCED CONVERGENCE PER EDDY
EFFECTS/AND SLOW STORM MOTION VECTORS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE BH
FOR MUCH OF THUR AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE A
WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE BLACK HILLS WHICH
COULD AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING CONCERNS. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL
SHIFT SOUTH THUR NIGHT AND SUPPORT AN ENHANCED AREA OF CONVERGENCE
WITH SHRA CHANCES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. KEPT POPS FAIRLY HIGH
THROUGH THUR NIGHT...WITH A SOUTHWARD SHIFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH ALONG WITH LSA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON SATURDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES
THROUGH. THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A WARMUP...WITH SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

-SHRA/-TSRA WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL -SHRA WILL DEVELOP
OVER NORTHEAST WY LATER TONIGHT AND THEN EXPAND OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY...INCLUDING INCREASING POCKETS OF TSRA. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 272337
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
537 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST IN THE PERIOD. A EASTERN PERIPHERY WEAK IMPULSE/JET STREAK IS
IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING NE OUT OF WY...SUPPORTING SCT-NUMEROUS
SHRA AND TS ACROSS THE FA. JET STREAK WILL LIFT NE THIS
EVENING...WITH FORCING AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIFTING NE. HIRES
ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE AOA 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE MAINLY IN A
NORTH/SOUTH AXIS ON THE SD PLAINS. AS CONVECTION LIFTS NE INTO
THIS AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED. BEST CHANCES/COVERAGE OF SHRA/TS WILL BE ACROSS NW SD
WHERE THE BEST LL CONVERGENCE AND LSA WILL OVERLAP. LL SFC TROUGH
WILL SHIFT SE INTO THE FA THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY STALLING OVER
SCENTRAL SD. MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
EAST OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN LSA AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING LINGERING
SHRA INTO THE FAR WESTERN FA BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. DRIED MOST
PLACES OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE FAR WEST TOWARD DAWN. DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER
THE AREA AND SUPPORT INCREASING LSA OVER MOST OF THE REGION
THURSDAY. MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE IN PLACE/DIURNAL
HEATING/AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED SFC TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONNECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE FA...ESP IN THE BH
WHERE CIN WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER SCENTRAL SD AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH WHERE ONGOING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE WARMER SECTOR WILL SUPPORT ML CAPES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHEAR REMAINS QUITE
LIMITED WITH 20-25 KNOTS PROGGED WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE WILL BE.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE BH. STEEP LL
LAPSE RATES/HIGH PW/S OVER AN INCH/ENHANCED CONVERGENCE PER EDDY
EFFECTS/AND SLOW STORM MOTION VECTORS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE BH
FOR MUCH OF THUR AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE A
WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE BLACK HILLS WHICH
COULD AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING CONCERNS. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL
SHIFT SOUTH THUR NIGHT AND SUPPORT AN ENHANCED AREA OF CONVERGENCE
WITH SHRA CHANCES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. KEPT POPS FAIRLY HIGH
THROUGH THUR NIGHT...WITH A SOUTHWARD SHIFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH ALONG WITH LSA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON SATURDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES
THROUGH. THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A WARMUP...WITH SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

-SHRA/-TSRA WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL -SHRA WILL DEVELOP
OVER NORTHEAST WY LATER TONIGHT AND THEN EXPAND OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY...INCLUDING INCREASING POCKETS OF TSRA. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 272337
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
537 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST IN THE PERIOD. A EASTERN PERIPHERY WEAK IMPULSE/JET STREAK IS
IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING NE OUT OF WY...SUPPORTING SCT-NUMEROUS
SHRA AND TS ACROSS THE FA. JET STREAK WILL LIFT NE THIS
EVENING...WITH FORCING AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIFTING NE. HIRES
ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE AOA 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE MAINLY IN A
NORTH/SOUTH AXIS ON THE SD PLAINS. AS CONVECTION LIFTS NE INTO
THIS AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED. BEST CHANCES/COVERAGE OF SHRA/TS WILL BE ACROSS NW SD
WHERE THE BEST LL CONVERGENCE AND LSA WILL OVERLAP. LL SFC TROUGH
WILL SHIFT SE INTO THE FA THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY STALLING OVER
SCENTRAL SD. MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
EAST OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN LSA AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING LINGERING
SHRA INTO THE FAR WESTERN FA BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. DRIED MOST
PLACES OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE FAR WEST TOWARD DAWN. DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER
THE AREA AND SUPPORT INCREASING LSA OVER MOST OF THE REGION
THURSDAY. MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE IN PLACE/DIURNAL
HEATING/AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED SFC TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONNECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE FA...ESP IN THE BH
WHERE CIN WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER SCENTRAL SD AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH WHERE ONGOING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE WARMER SECTOR WILL SUPPORT ML CAPES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHEAR REMAINS QUITE
LIMITED WITH 20-25 KNOTS PROGGED WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE WILL BE.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE BH. STEEP LL
LAPSE RATES/HIGH PW/S OVER AN INCH/ENHANCED CONVERGENCE PER EDDY
EFFECTS/AND SLOW STORM MOTION VECTORS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE BH
FOR MUCH OF THUR AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE A
WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE BLACK HILLS WHICH
COULD AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING CONCERNS. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL
SHIFT SOUTH THUR NIGHT AND SUPPORT AN ENHANCED AREA OF CONVERGENCE
WITH SHRA CHANCES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. KEPT POPS FAIRLY HIGH
THROUGH THUR NIGHT...WITH A SOUTHWARD SHIFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH ALONG WITH LSA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON SATURDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES
THROUGH. THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A WARMUP...WITH SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

-SHRA/-TSRA WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL -SHRA WILL DEVELOP
OVER NORTHEAST WY LATER TONIGHT AND THEN EXPAND OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY...INCLUDING INCREASING POCKETS OF TSRA. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 272337
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
537 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST IN THE PERIOD. A EASTERN PERIPHERY WEAK IMPULSE/JET STREAK IS
IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING NE OUT OF WY...SUPPORTING SCT-NUMEROUS
SHRA AND TS ACROSS THE FA. JET STREAK WILL LIFT NE THIS
EVENING...WITH FORCING AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIFTING NE. HIRES
ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE AOA 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE MAINLY IN A
NORTH/SOUTH AXIS ON THE SD PLAINS. AS CONVECTION LIFTS NE INTO
THIS AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED. BEST CHANCES/COVERAGE OF SHRA/TS WILL BE ACROSS NW SD
WHERE THE BEST LL CONVERGENCE AND LSA WILL OVERLAP. LL SFC TROUGH
WILL SHIFT SE INTO THE FA THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY STALLING OVER
SCENTRAL SD. MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
EAST OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN LSA AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING LINGERING
SHRA INTO THE FAR WESTERN FA BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. DRIED MOST
PLACES OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE FAR WEST TOWARD DAWN. DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER
THE AREA AND SUPPORT INCREASING LSA OVER MOST OF THE REGION
THURSDAY. MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE IN PLACE/DIURNAL
HEATING/AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED SFC TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONNECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE FA...ESP IN THE BH
WHERE CIN WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER SCENTRAL SD AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH WHERE ONGOING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE WARMER SECTOR WILL SUPPORT ML CAPES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHEAR REMAINS QUITE
LIMITED WITH 20-25 KNOTS PROGGED WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE WILL BE.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE BH. STEEP LL
LAPSE RATES/HIGH PW/S OVER AN INCH/ENHANCED CONVERGENCE PER EDDY
EFFECTS/AND SLOW STORM MOTION VECTORS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE BH
FOR MUCH OF THUR AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE A
WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE BLACK HILLS WHICH
COULD AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING CONCERNS. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL
SHIFT SOUTH THUR NIGHT AND SUPPORT AN ENHANCED AREA OF CONVERGENCE
WITH SHRA CHANCES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. KEPT POPS FAIRLY HIGH
THROUGH THUR NIGHT...WITH A SOUTHWARD SHIFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH ALONG WITH LSA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON SATURDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES
THROUGH. THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A WARMUP...WITH SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

-SHRA/-TSRA WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL -SHRA WILL DEVELOP
OVER NORTHEAST WY LATER TONIGHT AND THEN EXPAND OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY...INCLUDING INCREASING POCKETS OF TSRA. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 272025
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
225 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST IN THE PERIOD. A EASTERN PERIPHERY WEAK IMPULSE/JET STREAK IS
IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING NE OUT OF WY...SUPPORTING SCT-NUMEROUS
SHRA AND TS ACROSS THE FA. JET STREAK WILL LIFT NE THIS
EVENING...WITH FORCING AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIFTING NE. HIRES
ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE AOA 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE MAINLY IN A
NORTH/SOUTH AXIS ON THE SD PLAINS. AS CONVECTION LIFTS NE INTO
THIS AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED. BEST CHANCES/COVERAGE OF SHRA/TS WILL BE ACROSS NW SD
WHERE THE BEST LL CONVERGENCE AND LSA WILL OVERLAP. LL SFC TROUGH
WILL SHIFT SE INTO THE FA THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY STALLING OVER
SCENTRAL SD. MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
EAST OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN LSA AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING LINGERING
SHRA INTO THE FAR WESTERN FA BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. DRIED MOST
PLACES OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE FAR WEST TOWARD DAWN. DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER
THE AREA AND SUPPORT INCREASING LSA OVER MOST OF THE REGION
THURSDAY. MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE IN PLACE/DIURNAL
HEATING/AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED SFC TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONNECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE FA...ESP IN THE BH
WHERE CIN WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER SCENTRAL SD AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH WHERE ONGOING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE WARMER SECTOR WILL SUPPORT ML CAPES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHEAR REMAINS QUITE
LIMITED WITH 20-25 KNOTS PROGGED WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE WILL BE.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE BH. STEEP LL
LAPSE RATES/HIGH PW/S OVER AN INCH/ENHANCED CONVERGENCE PER EDDY
EFFECTS/AND SLOW STORM MOTION VECTORS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE BH
FOR MUCH OF THUR AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE A
WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE BLACK HILLS WHICH
COULD AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING CONCERNS. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL
SHIFT SOUTH THUR NIGHT AND SUPPORT AN ENHANCED AREA OF CONVERGENCE
WITH SHRA CHANCES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. KEPT POPS FAIRLY HIGH
THROUGH THUR NIGHT...WITH A SOUTHWARD SHIFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH ALONG WITH LSA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON SATURDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES
THROUGH. THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A WARMUP...WITH SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND
GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 272025
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
225 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST IN THE PERIOD. A EASTERN PERIPHERY WEAK IMPULSE/JET STREAK IS
IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING NE OUT OF WY...SUPPORTING SCT-NUMEROUS
SHRA AND TS ACROSS THE FA. JET STREAK WILL LIFT NE THIS
EVENING...WITH FORCING AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIFTING NE. HIRES
ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE AOA 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE MAINLY IN A
NORTH/SOUTH AXIS ON THE SD PLAINS. AS CONVECTION LIFTS NE INTO
THIS AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED. BEST CHANCES/COVERAGE OF SHRA/TS WILL BE ACROSS NW SD
WHERE THE BEST LL CONVERGENCE AND LSA WILL OVERLAP. LL SFC TROUGH
WILL SHIFT SE INTO THE FA THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY STALLING OVER
SCENTRAL SD. MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
EAST OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN LSA AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING LINGERING
SHRA INTO THE FAR WESTERN FA BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. DRIED MOST
PLACES OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE FAR WEST TOWARD DAWN. DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER
THE AREA AND SUPPORT INCREASING LSA OVER MOST OF THE REGION
THURSDAY. MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE IN PLACE/DIURNAL
HEATING/AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED SFC TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONNECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE FA...ESP IN THE BH
WHERE CIN WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER SCENTRAL SD AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH WHERE ONGOING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE WARMER SECTOR WILL SUPPORT ML CAPES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHEAR REMAINS QUITE
LIMITED WITH 20-25 KNOTS PROGGED WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE WILL BE.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE BH. STEEP LL
LAPSE RATES/HIGH PW/S OVER AN INCH/ENHANCED CONVERGENCE PER EDDY
EFFECTS/AND SLOW STORM MOTION VECTORS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE BH
FOR MUCH OF THUR AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE A
WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE BLACK HILLS WHICH
COULD AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING CONCERNS. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL
SHIFT SOUTH THUR NIGHT AND SUPPORT AN ENHANCED AREA OF CONVERGENCE
WITH SHRA CHANCES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. KEPT POPS FAIRLY HIGH
THROUGH THUR NIGHT...WITH A SOUTHWARD SHIFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH ALONG WITH LSA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON SATURDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES
THROUGH. THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A WARMUP...WITH SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND
GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE





000
FXUS63 KUNR 272025
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
225 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST IN THE PERIOD. A EASTERN PERIPHERY WEAK IMPULSE/JET STREAK IS
IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING NE OUT OF WY...SUPPORTING SCT-NUMEROUS
SHRA AND TS ACROSS THE FA. JET STREAK WILL LIFT NE THIS
EVENING...WITH FORCING AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIFTING NE. HIRES
ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE AOA 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE MAINLY IN A
NORTH/SOUTH AXIS ON THE SD PLAINS. AS CONVECTION LIFTS NE INTO
THIS AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED. BEST CHANCES/COVERAGE OF SHRA/TS WILL BE ACROSS NW SD
WHERE THE BEST LL CONVERGENCE AND LSA WILL OVERLAP. LL SFC TROUGH
WILL SHIFT SE INTO THE FA THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY STALLING OVER
SCENTRAL SD. MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
EAST OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN LSA AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING LINGERING
SHRA INTO THE FAR WESTERN FA BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. DRIED MOST
PLACES OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE FAR WEST TOWARD DAWN. DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER
THE AREA AND SUPPORT INCREASING LSA OVER MOST OF THE REGION
THURSDAY. MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE IN PLACE/DIURNAL
HEATING/AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED SFC TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONNECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE FA...ESP IN THE BH
WHERE CIN WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER SCENTRAL SD AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH WHERE ONGOING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE WARMER SECTOR WILL SUPPORT ML CAPES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHEAR REMAINS QUITE
LIMITED WITH 20-25 KNOTS PROGGED WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE WILL BE.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE BH. STEEP LL
LAPSE RATES/HIGH PW/S OVER AN INCH/ENHANCED CONVERGENCE PER EDDY
EFFECTS/AND SLOW STORM MOTION VECTORS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE BH
FOR MUCH OF THUR AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE A
WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE BLACK HILLS WHICH
COULD AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING CONCERNS. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL
SHIFT SOUTH THUR NIGHT AND SUPPORT AN ENHANCED AREA OF CONVERGENCE
WITH SHRA CHANCES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. KEPT POPS FAIRLY HIGH
THROUGH THUR NIGHT...WITH A SOUTHWARD SHIFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH ALONG WITH LSA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON SATURDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES
THROUGH. THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A WARMUP...WITH SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND
GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 271659
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1059 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER WA WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE
ROTATING ROTATING THROUGH MT/WY. AT THE SFC...HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH TROF TAKING SHAPE OVER ERN MT/ERN WY.
SCT SHRA/TSTMS EXTEND FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO FAR SWRN SD IN
REGION OF LOW/MID LVL THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF UPPER WAVE.

TODAY...UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS NEWD PROGRESSION WITH SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE BLKHLS BY MIDDAY. MLCAPE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO NEAR 1000J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA WITH CIN ERODING QUICKLY BY
LATE MRNG OVER NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. CONVECTION WILL INTIATE
EARLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLKHLS AS WELL AS NERN
WY...THEN INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE WRN SD PLAINS. AN
AREA OF ENHANCED MLCAPE OF NEAR 1500J/KG ALONG WITH BETTER SHEAR
WILL DEVELOP ALONG A DEVELOPING WMFNT EXTENDING FROM THE BLKHLS
LOW INTO CNTRL SD AND MAY RESULT IN A FEW SVR STORMS...AND CANT
RULE OUT AN ISOLD TORNADO GIVEN INTENSIFYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST
OF THE BLKHLS. HEAVY RAIN ALSO A THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN
SD NORTH OF THE WMFNT. ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NORTH/EAST OF
THE CWFA THIS EVENING.

THURSDAY...UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH SFC FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH OUR ERN ZONES. FAIRLY WDSPRD DIURNAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED...WITH A FEW SVR STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SFC FRONT OVER
SCNTRL SD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF SHIFTS EAST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EARLY ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST EARLY
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. BY THE WEEKEND...COOL HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A WARM UP IS EXPECTED THE FOLLOWING WEEK ALONG
WITH A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 1059 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

ISOLATED/SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS NEAR ANY STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...POJORLIE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 270932
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
332 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER WA WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE
ROTATING ROTATING THROUGH MT/WY. AT THE SFC...HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH TROF TAKING SHAPE OVER ERN MT/ERN WY.
SCT SHRA/TSTMS EXTEND FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO FAR SWRN SD IN
REGION OF LOW/MID LVL THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF UPPER WAVE.

TODAY...UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS NEWD PROGRESSION WITH SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE BLKHLS BY MIDDAY. MLCAPE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO NEAR 1000J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA WITH CIN ERODING QUICKLY BY
LATE MRNG OVER NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. CONVECTION WILL INTIATE
EARLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLKHLS AS WELL AS NERN
WY...THEN INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE WRN SD PLAINS. AN
AREA OF ENHANCED MLCAPE OF NEAR 1500J/KG ALONG WITH BETTER SHEAR
WILL DEVELOP ALONG A DEVELOPING WMFNT EXTENDING FROM THE BLKHLS
LOW INTO CNTRL SD AND MAY RESULT IN A FEW SVR STORMS...AND CANT
RULE OUT AN ISOLD TORNADO GIVEN INTENSIFYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST
OF THE BLKHLS. HEAVY RAIN ALSO A THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN
SD NORTH OF THE WMFNT. ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NORTH/EAST OF
THE CWFA THIS EVENING.

THURSDAY...UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH SFC FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH OUR ERN ZONES. FAIRLY WDSPRD DIURNAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED...WITH A FEW SVR STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SFC FRONT OVER
SCNTRL SD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF SHIFTS EAST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EARLY ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST EARLY
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. BY THE WEEKEND...COOL HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A WARM UP IS EXPECTED THE FOLLOWING WEEK ALONG
WITH A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

ISOLATED/SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA OVER SOUTHWEST SD WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
NEAR ANY STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15





000
FXUS63 KUNR 270932
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
332 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER WA WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE
ROTATING ROTATING THROUGH MT/WY. AT THE SFC...HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH TROF TAKING SHAPE OVER ERN MT/ERN WY.
SCT SHRA/TSTMS EXTEND FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO FAR SWRN SD IN
REGION OF LOW/MID LVL THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF UPPER WAVE.

TODAY...UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS NEWD PROGRESSION WITH SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE BLKHLS BY MIDDAY. MLCAPE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO NEAR 1000J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA WITH CIN ERODING QUICKLY BY
LATE MRNG OVER NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. CONVECTION WILL INTIATE
EARLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLKHLS AS WELL AS NERN
WY...THEN INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE WRN SD PLAINS. AN
AREA OF ENHANCED MLCAPE OF NEAR 1500J/KG ALONG WITH BETTER SHEAR
WILL DEVELOP ALONG A DEVELOPING WMFNT EXTENDING FROM THE BLKHLS
LOW INTO CNTRL SD AND MAY RESULT IN A FEW SVR STORMS...AND CANT
RULE OUT AN ISOLD TORNADO GIVEN INTENSIFYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST
OF THE BLKHLS. HEAVY RAIN ALSO A THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN
SD NORTH OF THE WMFNT. ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NORTH/EAST OF
THE CWFA THIS EVENING.

THURSDAY...UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH SFC FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH OUR ERN ZONES. FAIRLY WDSPRD DIURNAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED...WITH A FEW SVR STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SFC FRONT OVER
SCNTRL SD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF SHIFTS EAST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EARLY ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST EARLY
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. BY THE WEEKEND...COOL HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A WARM UP IS EXPECTED THE FOLLOWING WEEK ALONG
WITH A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

ISOLATED/SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA OVER SOUTHWEST SD WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
NEAR ANY STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15




000
FXUS63 KUNR 270932
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
332 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER WA WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE
ROTATING ROTATING THROUGH MT/WY. AT THE SFC...HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH TROF TAKING SHAPE OVER ERN MT/ERN WY.
SCT SHRA/TSTMS EXTEND FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO FAR SWRN SD IN
REGION OF LOW/MID LVL THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF UPPER WAVE.

TODAY...UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS NEWD PROGRESSION WITH SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE BLKHLS BY MIDDAY. MLCAPE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO NEAR 1000J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA WITH CIN ERODING QUICKLY BY
LATE MRNG OVER NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. CONVECTION WILL INTIATE
EARLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLKHLS AS WELL AS NERN
WY...THEN INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE WRN SD PLAINS. AN
AREA OF ENHANCED MLCAPE OF NEAR 1500J/KG ALONG WITH BETTER SHEAR
WILL DEVELOP ALONG A DEVELOPING WMFNT EXTENDING FROM THE BLKHLS
LOW INTO CNTRL SD AND MAY RESULT IN A FEW SVR STORMS...AND CANT
RULE OUT AN ISOLD TORNADO GIVEN INTENSIFYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST
OF THE BLKHLS. HEAVY RAIN ALSO A THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN
SD NORTH OF THE WMFNT. ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NORTH/EAST OF
THE CWFA THIS EVENING.

THURSDAY...UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH SFC FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH OUR ERN ZONES. FAIRLY WDSPRD DIURNAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED...WITH A FEW SVR STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SFC FRONT OVER
SCNTRL SD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF SHIFTS EAST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EARLY ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST EARLY
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. BY THE WEEKEND...COOL HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A WARM UP IS EXPECTED THE FOLLOWING WEEK ALONG
WITH A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

ISOLATED/SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA OVER SOUTHWEST SD WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
NEAR ANY STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15




000
FXUS63 KUNR 270932
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
332 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER WA WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE
ROTATING ROTATING THROUGH MT/WY. AT THE SFC...HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH TROF TAKING SHAPE OVER ERN MT/ERN WY.
SCT SHRA/TSTMS EXTEND FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO FAR SWRN SD IN
REGION OF LOW/MID LVL THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF UPPER WAVE.

TODAY...UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS NEWD PROGRESSION WITH SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE BLKHLS BY MIDDAY. MLCAPE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO NEAR 1000J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA WITH CIN ERODING QUICKLY BY
LATE MRNG OVER NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. CONVECTION WILL INTIATE
EARLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLKHLS AS WELL AS NERN
WY...THEN INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE WRN SD PLAINS. AN
AREA OF ENHANCED MLCAPE OF NEAR 1500J/KG ALONG WITH BETTER SHEAR
WILL DEVELOP ALONG A DEVELOPING WMFNT EXTENDING FROM THE BLKHLS
LOW INTO CNTRL SD AND MAY RESULT IN A FEW SVR STORMS...AND CANT
RULE OUT AN ISOLD TORNADO GIVEN INTENSIFYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST
OF THE BLKHLS. HEAVY RAIN ALSO A THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN
SD NORTH OF THE WMFNT. ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NORTH/EAST OF
THE CWFA THIS EVENING.

THURSDAY...UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH SFC FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH OUR ERN ZONES. FAIRLY WDSPRD DIURNAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED...WITH A FEW SVR STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SFC FRONT OVER
SCNTRL SD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF SHIFTS EAST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EARLY ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST EARLY
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. BY THE WEEKEND...COOL HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A WARM UP IS EXPECTED THE FOLLOWING WEEK ALONG
WITH A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

ISOLATED/SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA OVER SOUTHWEST SD WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
NEAR ANY STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15





000
FXUS63 KUNR 270437
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1037 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ONGOING OVER THE BLACK HILLS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER NE WY. CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE IN THESE LOCATIONS INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...WEAK
SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE SD PLAINS HAS ALLOWED FOR PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THERE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE PERIOD WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
SIDE JET STREAK EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A FRONT SIDE LLJ WITH POS
THETA-E ADV ENSUING TONIGHT INTO WED. CONCENTRATED FORCING ALONG
THE WAA/POS THETA-E ADV ZONE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHRA/TS ACTIVITY OVER NE WY INTO NW SD INTO WED MORNING. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...ESP THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE EDDY CONVERGE WILL
BE IN PLACE. EDDY CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH AN ADVANCING SFC TROUGH
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS FOR SHRA/TS ACTIVITY WED
AFTERNOON. MEAN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DEVELOPING AXIS OF
HIGHER CAPE FROM THE BH SE INTO SCENTRAL SD WITH 1000-1500 J/KG
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. BULK DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE
MARGINAL WITH 25 TO 30 KNOTS FORECAST. OVERALL NOT THE BEST SETUP
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONGER
STORM OR TWO ESP IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND THEN ACROSS
SCENTRAL SD ESP AFTER CIN BREAKS DOWN. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVY CELLS GIVEN HIGH PW/S OVER AN
INCH AT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN SD. ADDED A HEAVY RAIN
MENTION TO MAINLY NW SD. UPPER IMPULSE AND MAIN LOBE OF ASCENT
WILL PUSH EAST WED EVENING WITH SHRA/TS CHANCES DIMINISHING. A
SECONDARY IMPULSE MAY BRING A FEW SHRA TO NE WY LATER WED NIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM STRENGTH AND RESULTING PRECIP
REMAINS LOW. DRIED MOST PLACES OUT WED NIGHT SAVE SOME LOW POPS
OVER NE WY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN AND
SLOWLY CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
BY THE WEEKEND...BROAD RIDGING DEVELOPS WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARM UP IS EXPECTED THE FOLLOWING
WEEK ALONG WITH A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ISOLATED/SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA OVER NORTHEAST WY/BLACK HILLS WILL
PERSIST TONIGHT AND THEN EXPAND OVER WESTERN SD WEDNESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS NEAR ANY STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 270437
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1037 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ONGOING OVER THE BLACK HILLS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER NE WY. CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE IN THESE LOCATIONS INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...WEAK
SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE SD PLAINS HAS ALLOWED FOR PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THERE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE PERIOD WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
SIDE JET STREAK EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A FRONT SIDE LLJ WITH POS
THETA-E ADV ENSUING TONIGHT INTO WED. CONCENTRATED FORCING ALONG
THE WAA/POS THETA-E ADV ZONE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHRA/TS ACTIVITY OVER NE WY INTO NW SD INTO WED MORNING. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...ESP THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE EDDY CONVERGE WILL
BE IN PLACE. EDDY CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH AN ADVANCING SFC TROUGH
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS FOR SHRA/TS ACTIVITY WED
AFTERNOON. MEAN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DEVELOPING AXIS OF
HIGHER CAPE FROM THE BH SE INTO SCENTRAL SD WITH 1000-1500 J/KG
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. BULK DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE
MARGINAL WITH 25 TO 30 KNOTS FORECAST. OVERALL NOT THE BEST SETUP
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONGER
STORM OR TWO ESP IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND THEN ACROSS
SCENTRAL SD ESP AFTER CIN BREAKS DOWN. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVY CELLS GIVEN HIGH PW/S OVER AN
INCH AT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN SD. ADDED A HEAVY RAIN
MENTION TO MAINLY NW SD. UPPER IMPULSE AND MAIN LOBE OF ASCENT
WILL PUSH EAST WED EVENING WITH SHRA/TS CHANCES DIMINISHING. A
SECONDARY IMPULSE MAY BRING A FEW SHRA TO NE WY LATER WED NIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM STRENGTH AND RESULTING PRECIP
REMAINS LOW. DRIED MOST PLACES OUT WED NIGHT SAVE SOME LOW POPS
OVER NE WY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN AND
SLOWLY CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
BY THE WEEKEND...BROAD RIDGING DEVELOPS WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARM UP IS EXPECTED THE FOLLOWING
WEEK ALONG WITH A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ISOLATED/SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA OVER NORTHEAST WY/BLACK HILLS WILL
PERSIST TONIGHT AND THEN EXPAND OVER WESTERN SD WEDNESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS NEAR ANY STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 270437
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1037 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ONGOING OVER THE BLACK HILLS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER NE WY. CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE IN THESE LOCATIONS INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...WEAK
SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE SD PLAINS HAS ALLOWED FOR PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THERE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE PERIOD WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
SIDE JET STREAK EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A FRONT SIDE LLJ WITH POS
THETA-E ADV ENSUING TONIGHT INTO WED. CONCENTRATED FORCING ALONG
THE WAA/POS THETA-E ADV ZONE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHRA/TS ACTIVITY OVER NE WY INTO NW SD INTO WED MORNING. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...ESP THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE EDDY CONVERGE WILL
BE IN PLACE. EDDY CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH AN ADVANCING SFC TROUGH
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS FOR SHRA/TS ACTIVITY WED
AFTERNOON. MEAN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DEVELOPING AXIS OF
HIGHER CAPE FROM THE BH SE INTO SCENTRAL SD WITH 1000-1500 J/KG
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. BULK DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE
MARGINAL WITH 25 TO 30 KNOTS FORECAST. OVERALL NOT THE BEST SETUP
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONGER
STORM OR TWO ESP IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND THEN ACROSS
SCENTRAL SD ESP AFTER CIN BREAKS DOWN. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVY CELLS GIVEN HIGH PW/S OVER AN
INCH AT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN SD. ADDED A HEAVY RAIN
MENTION TO MAINLY NW SD. UPPER IMPULSE AND MAIN LOBE OF ASCENT
WILL PUSH EAST WED EVENING WITH SHRA/TS CHANCES DIMINISHING. A
SECONDARY IMPULSE MAY BRING A FEW SHRA TO NE WY LATER WED NIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM STRENGTH AND RESULTING PRECIP
REMAINS LOW. DRIED MOST PLACES OUT WED NIGHT SAVE SOME LOW POPS
OVER NE WY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN AND
SLOWLY CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
BY THE WEEKEND...BROAD RIDGING DEVELOPS WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARM UP IS EXPECTED THE FOLLOWING
WEEK ALONG WITH A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ISOLATED/SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA OVER NORTHEAST WY/BLACK HILLS WILL
PERSIST TONIGHT AND THEN EXPAND OVER WESTERN SD WEDNESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS NEAR ANY STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 270437
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1037 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ONGOING OVER THE BLACK HILLS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER NE WY. CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE IN THESE LOCATIONS INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...WEAK
SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE SD PLAINS HAS ALLOWED FOR PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THERE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE PERIOD WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
SIDE JET STREAK EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A FRONT SIDE LLJ WITH POS
THETA-E ADV ENSUING TONIGHT INTO WED. CONCENTRATED FORCING ALONG
THE WAA/POS THETA-E ADV ZONE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHRA/TS ACTIVITY OVER NE WY INTO NW SD INTO WED MORNING. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...ESP THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE EDDY CONVERGE WILL
BE IN PLACE. EDDY CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH AN ADVANCING SFC TROUGH
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS FOR SHRA/TS ACTIVITY WED
AFTERNOON. MEAN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DEVELOPING AXIS OF
HIGHER CAPE FROM THE BH SE INTO SCENTRAL SD WITH 1000-1500 J/KG
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. BULK DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE
MARGINAL WITH 25 TO 30 KNOTS FORECAST. OVERALL NOT THE BEST SETUP
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONGER
STORM OR TWO ESP IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND THEN ACROSS
SCENTRAL SD ESP AFTER CIN BREAKS DOWN. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVY CELLS GIVEN HIGH PW/S OVER AN
INCH AT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN SD. ADDED A HEAVY RAIN
MENTION TO MAINLY NW SD. UPPER IMPULSE AND MAIN LOBE OF ASCENT
WILL PUSH EAST WED EVENING WITH SHRA/TS CHANCES DIMINISHING. A
SECONDARY IMPULSE MAY BRING A FEW SHRA TO NE WY LATER WED NIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM STRENGTH AND RESULTING PRECIP
REMAINS LOW. DRIED MOST PLACES OUT WED NIGHT SAVE SOME LOW POPS
OVER NE WY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN AND
SLOWLY CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
BY THE WEEKEND...BROAD RIDGING DEVELOPS WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARM UP IS EXPECTED THE FOLLOWING
WEEK ALONG WITH A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ISOLATED/SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA OVER NORTHEAST WY/BLACK HILLS WILL
PERSIST TONIGHT AND THEN EXPAND OVER WESTERN SD WEDNESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS NEAR ANY STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 262324
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
524 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ONGOING OVER THE BLACK HILLS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER NE WY. CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE IN THESE LOCATIONS INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...WEAK
SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE SD PLAINS HAS ALLOWED FOR PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THERE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE PERIOD WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
SIDE JET STREAK EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A FRONT SIDE LLJ WITH POS
THETA-E ADV ENSUING TONIGHT INTO WED. CONCENTRATED FORCING ALONG
THE WAA/POS THETA-E ADV ZONE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHRA/TS ACTIVITY OVER NE WY INTO NW SD INTO WED MORNING. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...ESP THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE EDDY CONVERGE WILL
BE IN PLACE. EDDY CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH AN ADVANCING SFC TROUGH
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS FOR SHRA/TS ACTIVITY WED
AFTERNOON. MEAN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DEVELOPING AXIS OF
HIGHER CAPE FROM THE BH SE INTO SCENTRAL SD WITH 1000-1500 J/KG
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. BULK DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE
MARGINAL WITH 25 TO 30 KNOTS FORECAST. OVERALL NOT THE BEST SETUP
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONGER
STORM OR TWO ESP IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND THEN ACROSS
SCENTRAL SD ESP AFTER CIN BREAKS DOWN. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVY CELLS GIVEN HIGH PW/S OVER AN
INCH AT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN SD. ADDED A HEAVY RAIN
MENTION TO MAINLY NW SD. UPPER IMPULSE AND MAIN LOBE OF ASCENT
WILL PUSH EAST WED EVENING WITH SHRA/TS CHANCES DIMINISHING. A
SECONDARY IMPULSE MAY BRING A FEW SHRA TO NE WY LATER WED NIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM STRENGTH AND RESULTING PRECIP
REMAINS LOW. DRIED MOST PLACES OUT WED NIGHT SAVE SOME LOW POPS
OVER NE WY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN AND
SLOWLY CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
BY THE WEEKEND...BROAD RIDGING DEVELOPS WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARM UP IS EXPECTED THE FOLLOWING
WEEK ALONG WITH A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 523 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ISOLATED/SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA OVER NORTHEAST WY/BLACK HILLS WILL
PERSIST TONIGHT AND THEN EXPAND OVER WESTERN SD WEDNESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS NEAR ANY STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 262324
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
524 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ONGOING OVER THE BLACK HILLS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER NE WY. CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE IN THESE LOCATIONS INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...WEAK
SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE SD PLAINS HAS ALLOWED FOR PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THERE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE PERIOD WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
SIDE JET STREAK EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A FRONT SIDE LLJ WITH POS
THETA-E ADV ENSUING TONIGHT INTO WED. CONCENTRATED FORCING ALONG
THE WAA/POS THETA-E ADV ZONE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHRA/TS ACTIVITY OVER NE WY INTO NW SD INTO WED MORNING. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...ESP THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE EDDY CONVERGE WILL
BE IN PLACE. EDDY CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH AN ADVANCING SFC TROUGH
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS FOR SHRA/TS ACTIVITY WED
AFTERNOON. MEAN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DEVELOPING AXIS OF
HIGHER CAPE FROM THE BH SE INTO SCENTRAL SD WITH 1000-1500 J/KG
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. BULK DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE
MARGINAL WITH 25 TO 30 KNOTS FORECAST. OVERALL NOT THE BEST SETUP
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONGER
STORM OR TWO ESP IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND THEN ACROSS
SCENTRAL SD ESP AFTER CIN BREAKS DOWN. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVY CELLS GIVEN HIGH PW/S OVER AN
INCH AT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN SD. ADDED A HEAVY RAIN
MENTION TO MAINLY NW SD. UPPER IMPULSE AND MAIN LOBE OF ASCENT
WILL PUSH EAST WED EVENING WITH SHRA/TS CHANCES DIMINISHING. A
SECONDARY IMPULSE MAY BRING A FEW SHRA TO NE WY LATER WED NIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM STRENGTH AND RESULTING PRECIP
REMAINS LOW. DRIED MOST PLACES OUT WED NIGHT SAVE SOME LOW POPS
OVER NE WY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN AND
SLOWLY CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
BY THE WEEKEND...BROAD RIDGING DEVELOPS WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARM UP IS EXPECTED THE FOLLOWING
WEEK ALONG WITH A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 523 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ISOLATED/SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA OVER NORTHEAST WY/BLACK HILLS WILL
PERSIST TONIGHT AND THEN EXPAND OVER WESTERN SD WEDNESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS NEAR ANY STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 262033
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ONGOING OVER THE BLACK HILLS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER NE WY. CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE IN THESE LOCATIONS INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...WEAK
SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE SD PLAINS HAS ALLOWED FOR PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THERE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE PERIOD WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
SIDE JET STREAK EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A FRONT SIDE LLJ WITH POS
THETA-E ADV ENSUING TONIGHT INTO WED. CONCENTRATED FORCING ALONG
THE WAA/POS THETA-E ADV ZONE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHRA/TS ACTIVITY OVER NE WY INTO NW SD INTO WED MORNING. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...ESP THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE EDDY CONVERGE WILL
BE IN PLACE. EDDY CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH AN ADVANCING SFC TROUGH
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS FOR SHRA/TS ACTIVITY WED
AFTERNOON. MEAN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DEVELOPING AXIS OF
HIGHER CAPE FROM THE BH SE INTO SCENTRAL SD WITH 1000-1500 J/KG
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. BULK DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE
MARGINAL WITH 25 TO 30 KNOTS FORECAST. OVERALL NOT THE BEST SETUP
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONGER
STORM OR TWO ESP IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND THEN ACROSS
SCENTRAL SD ESP AFTER CIN BREAKS DOWN. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVY CELLS GIVEN HIGH PW/S OVER AN
INCH AT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN SD. ADDED A HEAVY RAIN
MENTION TO MAINLY NW SD. UPPER IMPULSE AND MAIN LOBE OF ASCENT
WILL PUSH EAST WED EVENING WITH SHRA/TS CHANCES DIMINISHING. A
SECONDARY IMPULSE MAY BRING A FEW SHRA TO NE WY LATER WED NIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM STRENGTH AND RESULTING PRECIP
REMAINS LOW. DRIED MOST PLACES OUT WED NIGHT SAVE SOME LOW POPS
OVER NE WY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN AND
SLOWLY CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
BY THE WEEKEND...BROAD RIDGING DEVELOPS WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARM UP IS EXPECTED THE FOLLOWING
WEEK ALONG WITH A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13





000
FXUS63 KUNR 262033
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ONGOING OVER THE BLACK HILLS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER NE WY. CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE IN THESE LOCATIONS INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...WEAK
SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE SD PLAINS HAS ALLOWED FOR PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THERE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE PERIOD WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
SIDE JET STREAK EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A FRONT SIDE LLJ WITH POS
THETA-E ADV ENSUING TONIGHT INTO WED. CONCENTRATED FORCING ALONG
THE WAA/POS THETA-E ADV ZONE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHRA/TS ACTIVITY OVER NE WY INTO NW SD INTO WED MORNING. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...ESP THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE EDDY CONVERGE WILL
BE IN PLACE. EDDY CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH AN ADVANCING SFC TROUGH
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS FOR SHRA/TS ACTIVITY WED
AFTERNOON. MEAN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DEVELOPING AXIS OF
HIGHER CAPE FROM THE BH SE INTO SCENTRAL SD WITH 1000-1500 J/KG
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. BULK DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE
MARGINAL WITH 25 TO 30 KNOTS FORECAST. OVERALL NOT THE BEST SETUP
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONGER
STORM OR TWO ESP IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND THEN ACROSS
SCENTRAL SD ESP AFTER CIN BREAKS DOWN. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVY CELLS GIVEN HIGH PW/S OVER AN
INCH AT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN SD. ADDED A HEAVY RAIN
MENTION TO MAINLY NW SD. UPPER IMPULSE AND MAIN LOBE OF ASCENT
WILL PUSH EAST WED EVENING WITH SHRA/TS CHANCES DIMINISHING. A
SECONDARY IMPULSE MAY BRING A FEW SHRA TO NE WY LATER WED NIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM STRENGTH AND RESULTING PRECIP
REMAINS LOW. DRIED MOST PLACES OUT WED NIGHT SAVE SOME LOW POPS
OVER NE WY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN AND
SLOWLY CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
BY THE WEEKEND...BROAD RIDGING DEVELOPS WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARM UP IS EXPECTED THE FOLLOWING
WEEK ALONG WITH A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 261732
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1132 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LOW NEAR THE ERN SD/ERN NEB BORDER...WITH
NEXT UPPER LOW OVER ERN WA. AT THE SFC...HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
WRN DAKOTAS.

TODAY...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF THIS MRNG WITH RESIDUAL
LOW CLOUDS OVER FAR ERN WY AND WRN SD ATTEMPTING TO ERODE. SHORT
WAVE RIDGE IN BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOWS WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SD PLAINS TODAY.
HOWEVER...STABILITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE ACRS NERN WY INTO THE
BLKHLS BY LATE MRNG AND EARLY AFTN WITH RETURN FLOW/CONVERGENCE
RESULTING IN SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA...AND HAVE BOOSTED
POPS EVEN FURTHER. SVR PARAMETERS ARE WEAK BUT COULD SEE SOME
HEAVIER RAIN WITH STRONGER STORMS. SHRA/TSRA MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE NIGHT IN THE WRN ZONES AS LLJ DEVELOPS AND SHORT WAVE EJECTS
THRU MT/WY.

WEDNESDAY...SHORT WAVE EJECTING FROM THE PAC NW LOW WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND RESULT IN MORE SHRA/TSRA EXPANDING EWD
ACROSS THE CWFA. MLCAPE VALUES TO NEARLY 1000J/KG COMBINED WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHEAR COULD RESULT IN SOME STRONGER OR POSSIBLY
EVEN SVR STORMS FROM THE BLKHLS EWD. CONVECTION WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SHORT WAVE LIFTS TO OUR NE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN
AND SLOWLY CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. BY THE
WEEKEND...BROAD RIDGING DEVELOPS...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
FROM CANADA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
A WARM UP FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 261732
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1132 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LOW NEAR THE ERN SD/ERN NEB BORDER...WITH
NEXT UPPER LOW OVER ERN WA. AT THE SFC...HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
WRN DAKOTAS.

TODAY...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF THIS MRNG WITH RESIDUAL
LOW CLOUDS OVER FAR ERN WY AND WRN SD ATTEMPTING TO ERODE. SHORT
WAVE RIDGE IN BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOWS WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SD PLAINS TODAY.
HOWEVER...STABILITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE ACRS NERN WY INTO THE
BLKHLS BY LATE MRNG AND EARLY AFTN WITH RETURN FLOW/CONVERGENCE
RESULTING IN SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA...AND HAVE BOOSTED
POPS EVEN FURTHER. SVR PARAMETERS ARE WEAK BUT COULD SEE SOME
HEAVIER RAIN WITH STRONGER STORMS. SHRA/TSRA MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE NIGHT IN THE WRN ZONES AS LLJ DEVELOPS AND SHORT WAVE EJECTS
THRU MT/WY.

WEDNESDAY...SHORT WAVE EJECTING FROM THE PAC NW LOW WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND RESULT IN MORE SHRA/TSRA EXPANDING EWD
ACROSS THE CWFA. MLCAPE VALUES TO NEARLY 1000J/KG COMBINED WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHEAR COULD RESULT IN SOME STRONGER OR POSSIBLY
EVEN SVR STORMS FROM THE BLKHLS EWD. CONVECTION WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SHORT WAVE LIFTS TO OUR NE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN
AND SLOWLY CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. BY THE
WEEKEND...BROAD RIDGING DEVELOPS...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
FROM CANADA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
A WARM UP FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...13





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