Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KUNR 062316
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
516 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN
WITH ZONAL FLOW CHANGING TO SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES IS KEEPING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY EXIST JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE BLACK HILLS FOR AN ISOLATED -TSRA TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AREAS OF SMOKE MAY DECREASE
VISIBILITY IN SOME AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER ERN WY. A WEAK THETA-E RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE POPS. A LOW LEVEL JET AND 850/700MB THETA-E ADVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER LOW CROSSES CENTRAL CANADA AND SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY UNDER DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND ANOTHER COUPLE
PASSING WAVES. ECM/GFS BOTH SHOWING A LOW CLOSING OFF OVER MT AND
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH THE ECM A BIT STRONGER. THIS
WOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA
SATURDAY...BUT THEN BOTH MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING
STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE RESULT IS A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR
AVERAGE WED/THU...WITH TEMPS RISING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AROUND THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. WITH AREA OF SMOKE ACROSS
THE REGION...LCL MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE FROM THE SMOKE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...7




000
FXUS63 KUNR 062316
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
516 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN
WITH ZONAL FLOW CHANGING TO SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES IS KEEPING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY EXIST JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE BLACK HILLS FOR AN ISOLATED -TSRA TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AREAS OF SMOKE MAY DECREASE
VISIBILITY IN SOME AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER ERN WY. A WEAK THETA-E RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE POPS. A LOW LEVEL JET AND 850/700MB THETA-E ADVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER LOW CROSSES CENTRAL CANADA AND SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY UNDER DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND ANOTHER COUPLE
PASSING WAVES. ECM/GFS BOTH SHOWING A LOW CLOSING OFF OVER MT AND
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH THE ECM A BIT STRONGER. THIS
WOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA
SATURDAY...BUT THEN BOTH MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING
STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE RESULT IS A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR
AVERAGE WED/THU...WITH TEMPS RISING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AROUND THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. WITH AREA OF SMOKE ACROSS
THE REGION...LCL MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE FROM THE SMOKE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...7





000
FXUS63 KUNR 062056
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
256 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN
WITH ZONAL FLOW CHANGING TO SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES IS KEEPING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY EXIST JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE BLACK HILLS FOR AN ISOLATED -TSRA TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AREAS OF SMOKE MAY DECREASE
VISIBILILTY IN SOME AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER ERN WY. A WEAK THETA-E RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE POPS. A LOW LEVEL JET AND 850/700MB THETA-E ADVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER LOW CROSSES CENTRAL CANADA AND SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY UNDER DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND ANOTHER COUPLE
PASSING WAVES. ECM/GFS BOTH SHOWING A LOW CLOSING OFF OVER MT AND
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH THE ECM A BIT STRONGER. THIS
WOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA
SATURDAY...BUT THEN BOTH MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING
STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE RESULT IS A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR
AVERAGE WED/THU...WITH TEMPS RISING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. SOME MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE FROM SMOKE. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION
LATER TODAY...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE





000
FXUS63 KUNR 062056
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
256 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN
WITH ZONAL FLOW CHANGING TO SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES IS KEEPING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY EXIST JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE BLACK HILLS FOR AN ISOLATED -TSRA TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AREAS OF SMOKE MAY DECREASE
VISIBILILTY IN SOME AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER ERN WY. A WEAK THETA-E RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE POPS. A LOW LEVEL JET AND 850/700MB THETA-E ADVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER LOW CROSSES CENTRAL CANADA AND SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY UNDER DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND ANOTHER COUPLE
PASSING WAVES. ECM/GFS BOTH SHOWING A LOW CLOSING OFF OVER MT AND
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH THE ECM A BIT STRONGER. THIS
WOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA
SATURDAY...BUT THEN BOTH MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING
STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE RESULT IS A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR
AVERAGE WED/THU...WITH TEMPS RISING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. SOME MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE FROM SMOKE. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION
LATER TODAY...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 061652
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1052 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MT PUSHING COLD FRONT
DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/WY PUSHING EASTWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 100KT JET STREAK SUPPORTING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. MAIN MCS NOW INTO THE
MIDWEST. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT CONTINUING...SO NOW HAVE POPS FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES IN AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER FEATURES AFFECT THE
CWA. LEFTOVER 500J/KG SBCAPE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK
HILLS MAY SUPPORT -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. SC/SMOKE WILL AFFECT MUCH
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH TOO WARM IF
SC/SMOKE IS THICK ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...QUIET NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME FU.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH RETURN FLOW OVER NORTHEAST
WY. THETA-E RIDGE/MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WHICH WARRANTS POPS
DURING DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET/850-700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES CNTRL CANADA...ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW ACROSS CNTRL
PAC COAST. AS UPPER WAVES CROSS THE PLAINS...STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WED/THU. ECM/GFS NOW IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW PHASING BACK IN VIA THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH BRINGS STRONGER UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS. THE RESULT IS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL STILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
STORMS...BUT WILL BE PRIMARILY LIMITED TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR AVERAGE WED/THU...THEN AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN...TEMPS WILL RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHEAST WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS AREA. SOME MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
FROM SMOKE. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION LATER
TODAY...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...POJORLIE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 061652
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1052 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MT PUSHING COLD FRONT
DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/WY PUSHING EASTWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 100KT JET STREAK SUPPORTING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. MAIN MCS NOW INTO THE
MIDWEST. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT CONTINUING...SO NOW HAVE POPS FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES IN AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER FEATURES AFFECT THE
CWA. LEFTOVER 500J/KG SBCAPE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK
HILLS MAY SUPPORT -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. SC/SMOKE WILL AFFECT MUCH
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH TOO WARM IF
SC/SMOKE IS THICK ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...QUIET NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME FU.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH RETURN FLOW OVER NORTHEAST
WY. THETA-E RIDGE/MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WHICH WARRANTS POPS
DURING DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET/850-700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES CNTRL CANADA...ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW ACROSS CNTRL
PAC COAST. AS UPPER WAVES CROSS THE PLAINS...STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WED/THU. ECM/GFS NOW IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW PHASING BACK IN VIA THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH BRINGS STRONGER UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS. THE RESULT IS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL STILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
STORMS...BUT WILL BE PRIMARILY LIMITED TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR AVERAGE WED/THU...THEN AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN...TEMPS WILL RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHEAST WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS AREA. SOME MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
FROM SMOKE. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION LATER
TODAY...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...POJORLIE





000
FXUS63 KUNR 061123
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
523 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MT PUSHING COLD FRONT
DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/WY PUSHING EASTWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 100KT JET STREAK SUPPORTING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. MAIN MCS NOW INTO THE
MIDWEST. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT CONTINUING...SO NOW HAVE POPS FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES IN AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER FEATURES AFFECT THE
CWA. LEFTOVER 500J/KG SBCAPE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK
HILLS MAY SUPPORT -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. SC/SMOKE WILL AFFECT MUCH
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH TOO WARM IF
SC/SMOKE IS THICK ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...QUIET NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME FU.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH RETURN FLOW OVER NORTHEAST
WY. THETA-E RIDGE/MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WHICH WARRANTS POPS
DURING DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET/850-700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES CNTRL CANADA...ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW ACROSS CNTRL
PAC COAST. AS UPPER WAVES CROSS THE PLAINS...STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WED/THU. ECM/GFS NOW IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW PHASING BACK IN VIA THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH BRINGS STRONGER UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS. THE RESULT IS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL STILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
STORMS...BUT WILL BE PRIMARILY LIMITED TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR AVERAGE WED/THU...THEN AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN...TEMPS WILL RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE
WY AND WESTERN SD THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING AS LINGERING -SHRA
CROSS THE CWA. SOME MVFR VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO SMOKE. DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTN...WITH CONDS TRENDING VFR ALL PLACES NORTH TO
SOUTH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13





000
FXUS63 KUNR 061123
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
523 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MT PUSHING COLD FRONT
DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/WY PUSHING EASTWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 100KT JET STREAK SUPPORTING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. MAIN MCS NOW INTO THE
MIDWEST. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT CONTINUING...SO NOW HAVE POPS FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES IN AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER FEATURES AFFECT THE
CWA. LEFTOVER 500J/KG SBCAPE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK
HILLS MAY SUPPORT -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. SC/SMOKE WILL AFFECT MUCH
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH TOO WARM IF
SC/SMOKE IS THICK ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...QUIET NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME FU.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH RETURN FLOW OVER NORTHEAST
WY. THETA-E RIDGE/MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WHICH WARRANTS POPS
DURING DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET/850-700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES CNTRL CANADA...ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW ACROSS CNTRL
PAC COAST. AS UPPER WAVES CROSS THE PLAINS...STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WED/THU. ECM/GFS NOW IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW PHASING BACK IN VIA THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH BRINGS STRONGER UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS. THE RESULT IS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL STILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
STORMS...BUT WILL BE PRIMARILY LIMITED TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR AVERAGE WED/THU...THEN AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN...TEMPS WILL RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE
WY AND WESTERN SD THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING AS LINGERING -SHRA
CROSS THE CWA. SOME MVFR VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO SMOKE. DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTN...WITH CONDS TRENDING VFR ALL PLACES NORTH TO
SOUTH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 061123
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
523 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MT PUSHING COLD FRONT
DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/WY PUSHING EASTWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 100KT JET STREAK SUPPORTING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. MAIN MCS NOW INTO THE
MIDWEST. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT CONTINUING...SO NOW HAVE POPS FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES IN AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER FEATURES AFFECT THE
CWA. LEFTOVER 500J/KG SBCAPE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK
HILLS MAY SUPPORT -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. SC/SMOKE WILL AFFECT MUCH
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH TOO WARM IF
SC/SMOKE IS THICK ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...QUIET NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME FU.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH RETURN FLOW OVER NORTHEAST
WY. THETA-E RIDGE/MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WHICH WARRANTS POPS
DURING DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET/850-700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES CNTRL CANADA...ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW ACROSS CNTRL
PAC COAST. AS UPPER WAVES CROSS THE PLAINS...STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WED/THU. ECM/GFS NOW IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW PHASING BACK IN VIA THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH BRINGS STRONGER UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS. THE RESULT IS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL STILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
STORMS...BUT WILL BE PRIMARILY LIMITED TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR AVERAGE WED/THU...THEN AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN...TEMPS WILL RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE
WY AND WESTERN SD THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING AS LINGERING -SHRA
CROSS THE CWA. SOME MVFR VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO SMOKE. DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTN...WITH CONDS TRENDING VFR ALL PLACES NORTH TO
SOUTH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 060843
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
243 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MT PUSHING COLD FRONT
DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/WY PUSHING EASTWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 100KT JET STREAK SUPPORTING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. MAIN MCS NOW INTO THE
MIDWEST. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT CONTINUING...SO NOW HAVE POPS FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES IN AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER FEATURES AFFECT THE
CWA. LEFTOVER 500J/KG SBCAPE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK
HILLS MAY SUPPORT -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. SC/SMOKE WILL AFFECT MUCH
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH TOO WARM IF
SC/SMOKE IS THICK ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...QUIET NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME FU.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH RETURN FLOW OVER NORTHEAST
WY. THETA-E RIDGE/MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WHICH WARRANTS POPS
DURING DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET/850-700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES CNTRL CANADA...ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW ACROSS CNTRL
PAC COAST. AS UPPER WAVES CROSS THE PLAINS...STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WED/THU. ECM/GFS NOW IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW PHASING BACK IN VIA THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH BRINGS STRONGER UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS. THE RESULT IS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL STILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
STORMS...BUT WILL BE PRIMARILY LIMITED TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR AVERAGE WED/THU...THEN AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN...TEMPS WILL RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE WY AND
WESTERN SD THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING AS LINGERING -SHRA CROSS
THE CWA. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN...WITH CONDS TRENDING VFR ALL PLACES
NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13





000
FXUS63 KUNR 060843
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
243 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MT PUSHING COLD FRONT
DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/WY PUSHING EASTWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 100KT JET STREAK SUPPORTING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. MAIN MCS NOW INTO THE
MIDWEST. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT CONTINUING...SO NOW HAVE POPS FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES IN AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER FEATURES AFFECT THE
CWA. LEFTOVER 500J/KG SBCAPE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK
HILLS MAY SUPPORT -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. SC/SMOKE WILL AFFECT MUCH
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH TOO WARM IF
SC/SMOKE IS THICK ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...QUIET NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME FU.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH RETURN FLOW OVER NORTHEAST
WY. THETA-E RIDGE/MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WHICH WARRANTS POPS
DURING DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET/850-700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES CNTRL CANADA...ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW ACROSS CNTRL
PAC COAST. AS UPPER WAVES CROSS THE PLAINS...STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WED/THU. ECM/GFS NOW IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW PHASING BACK IN VIA THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH BRINGS STRONGER UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS. THE RESULT IS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL STILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
STORMS...BUT WILL BE PRIMARILY LIMITED TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR AVERAGE WED/THU...THEN AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN...TEMPS WILL RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE WY AND
WESTERN SD THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING AS LINGERING -SHRA CROSS
THE CWA. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN...WITH CONDS TRENDING VFR ALL PLACES
NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 060520
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1120 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS MOVED JUST SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE CWA NOW. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BOW ECHO OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD EARLIER THIS
EVENING HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM FAR SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SD...BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS DIMINISHED OVER
THE WATCH AREA.

WILL UPDATE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND TO
CANCEL THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST SD...AND INTO CENTRAL WY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT IS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL SD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD NOW. KUDX RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER EASTERN WY INTO FAR
WESTERN SD...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FURTHER EAST TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL SD. SKIES RANGE FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD. A FAIRLY
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW...RANGING FROM 60S
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY TO THE LOWER 90S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
WINDS ARE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AND
SOMEWHAT FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN SD TODAY
HAS KEPT ATMOSPHERE MORE STABLE AND CAPPED OVER THIS AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT ON HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WX WILL BE ACROSS THE CWA...BUT AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
FRONT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST
RISK INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH STRONG SHEAR NEAR AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A LINE OF STORMS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING...LIKELY TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY TURNING INTO MORE OF A WIND THREAT LATER
IN THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE
FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE TODAY. HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD BE AN ISSUE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SD...AS ROTATING STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER MOVERS NEAR THE
FRONT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES THERE.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...INSTABILITY LOWERS...ESPECIALLY INTO
NORTHEAST WY...WHERE CLOUDS AND COOLER AIRMASS HAVE KEPT TEMPS DOWN.
THE SEVERE RISK OVER THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND MUCH OF FAR WESTERN SD
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS...WITH THE FRONT HAVING PASSED BY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND ON THE COOLER SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER OVER THE BLACK HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON..
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD WILL BRING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TUE AFTN/NIGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WED AND THU WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGING GREATLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW AN UPPER LOW
OVER CALIFORNIA WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW. THE WETTER
SOLUTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS MOST OF THE ENERGY PUSHING WITHIN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF KEEPS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH
KEEPS THE REMNANT LOW PUSHING NORTHEAST THRU THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY DRY UNDER THE RIDGE. AT
THIS TIME...KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST GOING WITH A CHANCE FOR
STORMS THRU THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NE WY AND
WESTERN SD THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING WITH SCT SHRA. DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION LATER MONDAY...WITH CONDS
TRENDING VFR ALL PLACES NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...JC





000
FXUS63 KUNR 060520
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1120 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS MOVED JUST SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE CWA NOW. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BOW ECHO OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD EARLIER THIS
EVENING HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM FAR SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SD...BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS DIMINISHED OVER
THE WATCH AREA.

WILL UPDATE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND TO
CANCEL THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST SD...AND INTO CENTRAL WY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT IS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL SD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD NOW. KUDX RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER EASTERN WY INTO FAR
WESTERN SD...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FURTHER EAST TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL SD. SKIES RANGE FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD. A FAIRLY
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW...RANGING FROM 60S
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY TO THE LOWER 90S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
WINDS ARE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AND
SOMEWHAT FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN SD TODAY
HAS KEPT ATMOSPHERE MORE STABLE AND CAPPED OVER THIS AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT ON HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WX WILL BE ACROSS THE CWA...BUT AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
FRONT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST
RISK INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH STRONG SHEAR NEAR AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A LINE OF STORMS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING...LIKELY TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY TURNING INTO MORE OF A WIND THREAT LATER
IN THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE
FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE TODAY. HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD BE AN ISSUE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SD...AS ROTATING STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER MOVERS NEAR THE
FRONT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES THERE.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...INSTABILITY LOWERS...ESPECIALLY INTO
NORTHEAST WY...WHERE CLOUDS AND COOLER AIRMASS HAVE KEPT TEMPS DOWN.
THE SEVERE RISK OVER THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND MUCH OF FAR WESTERN SD
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS...WITH THE FRONT HAVING PASSED BY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND ON THE COOLER SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER OVER THE BLACK HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON..
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD WILL BRING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TUE AFTN/NIGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WED AND THU WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGING GREATLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW AN UPPER LOW
OVER CALIFORNIA WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW. THE WETTER
SOLUTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS MOST OF THE ENERGY PUSHING WITHIN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF KEEPS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH
KEEPS THE REMNANT LOW PUSHING NORTHEAST THRU THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY DRY UNDER THE RIDGE. AT
THIS TIME...KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST GOING WITH A CHANCE FOR
STORMS THRU THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NE WY AND
WESTERN SD THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING WITH SCT SHRA. DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION LATER MONDAY...WITH CONDS
TRENDING VFR ALL PLACES NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 060330
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
930 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS MOVED JUST SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE CWA NOW. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BOW ECHO OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD EARLIER THIS
EVENING HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM FAR SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SD...BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS DIMINISHED OVER
THE WATCH AREA.

WILL UPDATE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND TO
CANCEL THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST SD...AND INTO CENTRAL WY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT IS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL SD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD NOW. KUDX RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER EASTERN WY INTO FAR
WESTERN SD...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FURTHER EAST TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL SD. SKIES RANGE FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD. A FAIRLY
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW...RANGING FROM 60S
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY TO THE LOWER 90S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
WINDS ARE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AND
SOMEWHAT FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN SD TODAY
HAS KEPT ATMOSPHERE MORE STABLE AND CAPPED OVER THIS AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT ON HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WX WILL BE ACROSS THE CWA...BUT AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
FRONT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST
RISK INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH STRONG SHEAR NEAR AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A LINE OF STORMS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING...LIKELY TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY TURNING INTO MORE OF A WIND TRHEAT LATER IN
THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT
OVER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE AN ISSUE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AS
ROTATING STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER MOVERS NEAR THE FRONT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES THERE.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...INSTABILITY LOWERS...ESPECIALLY INTO
NORTHEAST WY...WHERE CLOUDS AND COOLER AIRMASS HAVE KEPT TEMPS DOWN.
THE SEVERE RISK OVER THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND MUCH OF FAR WESTERN SD
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS...WITH THE FRONT HAVING PASSED BY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND ON THE COOLER SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER OVER THE BLACK HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON..
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD WILL BRING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TUE AFTN/NIGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WED AND THU WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGING GREATLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW AN UPPER LOW
OVER CALIFORNIA WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW. THE WETTER
SOLUTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS MOST OF THE ENERGY PUSHING WITHIN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF KEEPS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH
KEEPS THE REMNANT LOW PUSHING NORTHEAST THRU THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY DRY UNDER THE RIDGE. AT
THIS TIME...KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST GOING WITH A CHANCE FOR
STORMS THRU THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
WY AND WESTERN SD THIS EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD
THIS EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG IT. A FEW OF
THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS OF
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL. MVFR/IFR
CIGS WILL BUILD INTO MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD OVERNIGHT AND LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 052331
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
531 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST SD...AND INTO CENTRAL WY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT IS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL SD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD NOW. KUDX RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER EASTERN WY INTO FAR
WESTERN SD...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FURTHER EAST TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL SD. SKIES RANGE FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD. A FAIRLY
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW...RANGING FROM 60S
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY TO THE LOWER 90S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
WINDS ARE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AND
SOMEWHAT FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN SD TODAY
HAS KEPT ATMOSPHERE MORE STABLE AND CAPPED OVER THIS AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT ON HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WX WILL BE ACROSS THE CWA...BUT AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
FRONT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST
RISK INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH STRONG SHEAR NEAR AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A LINE OF STORMS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING...LIKELY TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY TURNING INTO MORE OF A WIND TRHEAT LATER IN
THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT
OVER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE AN ISSUE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AS
ROTATING STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER MOVERS NEAR THE FRONT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES THERE.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...INSTABILITY LOWERS...ESPECIALLY INTO
NORTHEAST WY...WHERE CLOUDS AND COOLER AIRMASS HAVE KEPT TEMPS DOWN.
THE SEVERE RISK OVER THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND MUCH OF FAR WESTERN SD
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS...WITH THE FRONT HAVING PASSED BY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND ON THE COOLER SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER OVER THE BLACK HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON..
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD WILL BRING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TUE AFTN/NIGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WED AND THU WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGING GREATLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW AN UPPER LOW
OVER CALIFORNIA WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW. THE WETTER
SOLUTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS MOST OF THE ENERGY PUSHING WITHIN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF KEEPS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH
KEEPS THE REMNANT LOW PUSHING NORTHEAST THRU THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY DRY UNDER THE RIDGE. AT
THIS TIME...KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST GOING WITH A CHANCE FOR
STORMS THRU THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
WY AND WESTERN SD THIS EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD
THIS EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG IT. A FEW OF
THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS OF
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL. MVFR/IFR
CIGS WILL BUILD INTO MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD OVERNIGHT AND LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS63 KUNR 052331
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
531 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST SD...AND INTO CENTRAL WY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT IS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL SD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD NOW. KUDX RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER EASTERN WY INTO FAR
WESTERN SD...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FURTHER EAST TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL SD. SKIES RANGE FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD. A FAIRLY
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW...RANGING FROM 60S
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY TO THE LOWER 90S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
WINDS ARE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AND
SOMEWHAT FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN SD TODAY
HAS KEPT ATMOSPHERE MORE STABLE AND CAPPED OVER THIS AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT ON HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WX WILL BE ACROSS THE CWA...BUT AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
FRONT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST
RISK INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH STRONG SHEAR NEAR AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A LINE OF STORMS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING...LIKELY TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY TURNING INTO MORE OF A WIND TRHEAT LATER IN
THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT
OVER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE AN ISSUE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AS
ROTATING STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER MOVERS NEAR THE FRONT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES THERE.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...INSTABILITY LOWERS...ESPECIALLY INTO
NORTHEAST WY...WHERE CLOUDS AND COOLER AIRMASS HAVE KEPT TEMPS DOWN.
THE SEVERE RISK OVER THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND MUCH OF FAR WESTERN SD
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS...WITH THE FRONT HAVING PASSED BY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND ON THE COOLER SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER OVER THE BLACK HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON..
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD WILL BRING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TUE AFTN/NIGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WED AND THU WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGING GREATLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW AN UPPER LOW
OVER CALIFORNIA WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW. THE WETTER
SOLUTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS MOST OF THE ENERGY PUSHING WITHIN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF KEEPS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH
KEEPS THE REMNANT LOW PUSHING NORTHEAST THRU THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY DRY UNDER THE RIDGE. AT
THIS TIME...KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST GOING WITH A CHANCE FOR
STORMS THRU THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
WY AND WESTERN SD THIS EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD
THIS EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG IT. A FEW OF
THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS OF
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL. MVFR/IFR
CIGS WILL BUILD INTO MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD OVERNIGHT AND LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 052331
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
531 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST SD...AND INTO CENTRAL WY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT IS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL SD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD NOW. KUDX RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER EASTERN WY INTO FAR
WESTERN SD...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FURTHER EAST TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL SD. SKIES RANGE FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD. A FAIRLY
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW...RANGING FROM 60S
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY TO THE LOWER 90S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
WINDS ARE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AND
SOMEWHAT FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN SD TODAY
HAS KEPT ATMOSPHERE MORE STABLE AND CAPPED OVER THIS AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT ON HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WX WILL BE ACROSS THE CWA...BUT AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
FRONT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST
RISK INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH STRONG SHEAR NEAR AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A LINE OF STORMS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING...LIKELY TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY TURNING INTO MORE OF A WIND TRHEAT LATER IN
THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT
OVER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE AN ISSUE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AS
ROTATING STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER MOVERS NEAR THE FRONT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES THERE.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...INSTABILITY LOWERS...ESPECIALLY INTO
NORTHEAST WY...WHERE CLOUDS AND COOLER AIRMASS HAVE KEPT TEMPS DOWN.
THE SEVERE RISK OVER THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND MUCH OF FAR WESTERN SD
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS...WITH THE FRONT HAVING PASSED BY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND ON THE COOLER SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER OVER THE BLACK HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON..
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD WILL BRING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TUE AFTN/NIGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WED AND THU WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGING GREATLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW AN UPPER LOW
OVER CALIFORNIA WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW. THE WETTER
SOLUTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS MOST OF THE ENERGY PUSHING WITHIN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF KEEPS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH
KEEPS THE REMNANT LOW PUSHING NORTHEAST THRU THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY DRY UNDER THE RIDGE. AT
THIS TIME...KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST GOING WITH A CHANCE FOR
STORMS THRU THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
WY AND WESTERN SD THIS EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD
THIS EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG IT. A FEW OF
THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS OF
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL. MVFR/IFR
CIGS WILL BUILD INTO MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD OVERNIGHT AND LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 052331
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
531 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST SD...AND INTO CENTRAL WY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT IS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL SD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD NOW. KUDX RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER EASTERN WY INTO FAR
WESTERN SD...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FURTHER EAST TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL SD. SKIES RANGE FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD. A FAIRLY
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW...RANGING FROM 60S
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY TO THE LOWER 90S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
WINDS ARE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AND
SOMEWHAT FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN SD TODAY
HAS KEPT ATMOSPHERE MORE STABLE AND CAPPED OVER THIS AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT ON HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WX WILL BE ACROSS THE CWA...BUT AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
FRONT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST
RISK INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH STRONG SHEAR NEAR AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A LINE OF STORMS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING...LIKELY TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY TURNING INTO MORE OF A WIND TRHEAT LATER IN
THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT
OVER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE AN ISSUE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AS
ROTATING STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER MOVERS NEAR THE FRONT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES THERE.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...INSTABILITY LOWERS...ESPECIALLY INTO
NORTHEAST WY...WHERE CLOUDS AND COOLER AIRMASS HAVE KEPT TEMPS DOWN.
THE SEVERE RISK OVER THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND MUCH OF FAR WESTERN SD
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS...WITH THE FRONT HAVING PASSED BY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND ON THE COOLER SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER OVER THE BLACK HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON..
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD WILL BRING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TUE AFTN/NIGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WED AND THU WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGING GREATLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW AN UPPER LOW
OVER CALIFORNIA WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW. THE WETTER
SOLUTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS MOST OF THE ENERGY PUSHING WITHIN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF KEEPS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH
KEEPS THE REMNANT LOW PUSHING NORTHEAST THRU THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY DRY UNDER THE RIDGE. AT
THIS TIME...KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST GOING WITH A CHANCE FOR
STORMS THRU THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
WY AND WESTERN SD THIS EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD
THIS EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG IT. A FEW OF
THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS OF
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL. MVFR/IFR
CIGS WILL BUILD INTO MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD OVERNIGHT AND LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS63 KUNR 052107
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
307 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST SD...AND INTO CENTRAL WY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT IS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL SD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD NOW. KUDX RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER EASTERN WY INTO FAR
WESTERN SD...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FURTHER EAST TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL SD. SKIES RANGE FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD. A FAIRLY
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW...RANGING FROM 60S
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY TO THE LOWER 90S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
WINDS ARE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AND
SOMEWHAT FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN SD TODAY
HAS KEPT ATMOSPHERE MORE STABLE AND CAPPED OVER THIS AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT ON HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WX WILL BE ACROSS THE CWA...BUT AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
FRONT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST
RISK INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH STRONG SHEAR NEAR AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A LINE OF STORMS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING...LIKELY TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY TURNING INTO MORE OF A WIND TRHEAT LATER IN
THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT
OVER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE AN ISSUE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AS
ROTATING STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER MOVERS NEAR THE FRONT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES THERE.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...INSTABILITY LOWERS...ESPECIALLY INTO
NORTHEAST WY...WHERE CLOUDS AND COOLER AIRMASS HAVE KEPT TEMPS DOWN.
THE SEVERE RISK OVER THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND MUCH OF FAR WESTERN SD
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS...WITH THE FRONT HAVING PASSED BY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND ON THE COOLER SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER OVER THE BLACK HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON..
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD WILL BRING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TUE AFTN/NIGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WED AND THU WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGING GREATLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW AN UPPER LOW
OVER CALIFORNIA WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW. THE WETTER
SOLUTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS MOST OF THE ENERGY PUSHING WITHIN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF KEEPS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH
KEEPS THE REMNANT LOW PUSHING NORTHEAST THRU THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY DRY UNDER THE RIDGE. AT
THIS TIME...KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST GOING WITH A CHANCE FOR
STORMS THRU THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH
THIS FRONT...NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AND SOME STORMS WILL
BE SEVERE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONG STORMS
AS WELL AS STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL END
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NW...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...MLS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 052107
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
307 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST SD...AND INTO CENTRAL WY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT IS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL SD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD NOW. KUDX RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER EASTERN WY INTO FAR
WESTERN SD...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FURTHER EAST TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL SD. SKIES RANGE FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD. A FAIRLY
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW...RANGING FROM 60S
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY TO THE LOWER 90S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
WINDS ARE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AND
SOMEWHAT FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN SD TODAY
HAS KEPT ATMOSPHERE MORE STABLE AND CAPPED OVER THIS AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT ON HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WX WILL BE ACROSS THE CWA...BUT AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
FRONT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST
RISK INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH STRONG SHEAR NEAR AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A LINE OF STORMS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING...LIKELY TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY TURNING INTO MORE OF A WIND TRHEAT LATER IN
THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT
OVER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE AN ISSUE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AS
ROTATING STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER MOVERS NEAR THE FRONT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES THERE.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...INSTABILITY LOWERS...ESPECIALLY INTO
NORTHEAST WY...WHERE CLOUDS AND COOLER AIRMASS HAVE KEPT TEMPS DOWN.
THE SEVERE RISK OVER THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND MUCH OF FAR WESTERN SD
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS...WITH THE FRONT HAVING PASSED BY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND ON THE COOLER SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER OVER THE BLACK HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON..
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD WILL BRING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TUE AFTN/NIGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WED AND THU WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGING GREATLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW AN UPPER LOW
OVER CALIFORNIA WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW. THE WETTER
SOLUTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS MOST OF THE ENERGY PUSHING WITHIN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF KEEPS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH
KEEPS THE REMNANT LOW PUSHING NORTHEAST THRU THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY DRY UNDER THE RIDGE. AT
THIS TIME...KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST GOING WITH A CHANCE FOR
STORMS THRU THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH
THIS FRONT...NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AND SOME STORMS WILL
BE SEVERE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONG STORMS
AS WELL AS STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL END
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NW...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...MLS





000
FXUS63 KUNR 051718
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1118 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SD...WITH
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL ND...THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS
AREA...AND INTO NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS ND AND
NORTHERN SD THIS MORNING...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE OVER WY WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST SD...WITH SOME
ACTIVITY STARTING TO DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST NEAR THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WY. SKIES RANGE FROM
MAINLY SUNNY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER FAR
NORTHEAST WY AND NORTHWEST SD. WITH THE FRONT AND VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS RIGHT NOW RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S ACROSS NORTHWEST SD TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SD.
WINDS ARE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

MINOR UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...
WIND,,,AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE 70S OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST WY
AND NORTHWEST SD TO THE LOWER 90S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE GREATEST NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...GENERALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS SOUTH AND EASTWARD...THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND INTO
SOUTHWEST MT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT
NEAR THE FRONT AND TROUGH FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL NE. NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING EAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAIN THETA-E
ADVECTION OVER EASTERN SD/CENTRAL NE ALLOWING TSRA TO END OVER THE
CWA. STILL MIGHT BE AN ELEVATED STORM THROUGH 12Z OVER CENTRAL SD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO COLD FRONT/LOW. LATEST WATER
VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND THEN ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDERS OF MT/ND. LIFT UNDER RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 120KT JET SUPPORTING ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHEAST MT AT 0830Z...WHICH WILL HEAD INTO WESTERN ND THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PUT OUT AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PUSH COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST REACHES
OF CWA THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET WILL ENHANCE SURFACE LOW ALONG COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
SLIP TO I-90 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW NEAR KRAP. VERY
WARM/MOIST AIR AHEAD OF LOW WILL POOL ALONG BOUNDARY WITH 2-4KJ/KG
MLCAPE AND 25-50J/KG MLCIN. EFFECTIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20M/S
EXPECTED ALONG BOUNDARY. AS CAP BREAKS ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...EXPECT
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRENGTH OF
INSTABILITY...VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. TORNADO THREAT IS THERE
GIVEN NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT...ELONGATING
HODOGRAPHS IF SUPERCELLS ARE POST FRONTAL...WHICH IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY GIVEN SETUP...BUT MLLCL/S FAIRLY HIGH EXCEPT FOR
FAVORED AREA JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW. ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY GROW UPSCALE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AND
MORPH INTO A POTENTIALLY STRONG FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OVER
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN SD WITH ENHANCED WIND THREAT. GIVEN
PARAMETERS...ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS ON TARGET EAST
OF RAPID CITY. COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF CWA TONIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND IT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
FRONTAL POSITION.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ON
TAP.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW ACROSS NE
WY AND FAR WRN SD WILL BRING BACK SOME CHANCES OF STORMS TUE
AFTN/NGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION WED AND THU WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS ARE DIVERGING GREATLY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH HOW AN UPPER LOW OVER CA WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE
MAIN FLOW. THE WETTER SOLUTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS MOST OF THE
ENERGY PUSHING WITHIN THE SW FLOW INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF
KEEP STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHICH
KEEPS THE REMNANT LOW PUSHING NE THRU THE NRN ROCKIES...ALONG WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH
THIS FRONT...NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP WITH SOME SEVERE
STORMS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONG STORMS AS
WELL AS STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL END
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NW...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...MLS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 051718
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1118 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SD...WITH
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL ND...THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS
AREA...AND INTO NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS ND AND
NORTHERN SD THIS MORNING...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE OVER WY WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST SD...WITH SOME
ACTIVITY STARTING TO DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST NEAR THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WY. SKIES RANGE FROM
MAINLY SUNNY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER FAR
NORTHEAST WY AND NORTHWEST SD. WITH THE FRONT AND VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS RIGHT NOW RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S ACROSS NORTHWEST SD TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SD.
WINDS ARE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

MINOR UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...
WIND,,,AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE 70S OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST WY
AND NORTHWEST SD TO THE LOWER 90S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE GREATEST NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...GENERALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS SOUTH AND EASTWARD...THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND INTO
SOUTHWEST MT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT
NEAR THE FRONT AND TROUGH FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL NE. NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING EAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAIN THETA-E
ADVECTION OVER EASTERN SD/CENTRAL NE ALLOWING TSRA TO END OVER THE
CWA. STILL MIGHT BE AN ELEVATED STORM THROUGH 12Z OVER CENTRAL SD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO COLD FRONT/LOW. LATEST WATER
VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND THEN ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDERS OF MT/ND. LIFT UNDER RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 120KT JET SUPPORTING ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHEAST MT AT 0830Z...WHICH WILL HEAD INTO WESTERN ND THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PUT OUT AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PUSH COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST REACHES
OF CWA THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET WILL ENHANCE SURFACE LOW ALONG COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
SLIP TO I-90 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW NEAR KRAP. VERY
WARM/MOIST AIR AHEAD OF LOW WILL POOL ALONG BOUNDARY WITH 2-4KJ/KG
MLCAPE AND 25-50J/KG MLCIN. EFFECTIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20M/S
EXPECTED ALONG BOUNDARY. AS CAP BREAKS ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...EXPECT
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRENGTH OF
INSTABILITY...VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. TORNADO THREAT IS THERE
GIVEN NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT...ELONGATING
HODOGRAPHS IF SUPERCELLS ARE POST FRONTAL...WHICH IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY GIVEN SETUP...BUT MLLCL/S FAIRLY HIGH EXCEPT FOR
FAVORED AREA JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW. ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY GROW UPSCALE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AND
MORPH INTO A POTENTIALLY STRONG FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OVER
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN SD WITH ENHANCED WIND THREAT. GIVEN
PARAMETERS...ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS ON TARGET EAST
OF RAPID CITY. COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF CWA TONIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND IT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
FRONTAL POSITION.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ON
TAP.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW ACROSS NE
WY AND FAR WRN SD WILL BRING BACK SOME CHANCES OF STORMS TUE
AFTN/NGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION WED AND THU WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS ARE DIVERGING GREATLY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH HOW AN UPPER LOW OVER CA WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE
MAIN FLOW. THE WETTER SOLUTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS MOST OF THE
ENERGY PUSHING WITHIN THE SW FLOW INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF
KEEP STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHICH
KEEPS THE REMNANT LOW PUSHING NE THRU THE NRN ROCKIES...ALONG WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH
THIS FRONT...NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP WITH SOME SEVERE
STORMS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONG STORMS AS
WELL AS STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL END
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NW...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...MLS





000
FXUS63 KUNR 051537
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
937 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SD...WITH
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL ND...THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS
AREA...AND INTO NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS ND AND
NORTHERN SD THIS MORNING...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE OVER WY WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST SD...WITH SOME
ACTIVITY STARTING TO DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST NEAR THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WY. SKIES RANGE FROM
MAINLY SUNNY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER FAR
NORTHEAST WY AND NORTHWEST SD. WITH THE FRONT AND VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS RIGHT NOW RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S ACROSS NORTHWEST SD TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SD.
WINDS ARE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

MINOR UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...
WIND,,,AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE 70S OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST WY
AND NORTHWEST SD TO THE LOWER 90S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE GREATEST NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...GENERALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS SOUTH AND EASTWARD...THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND INTO
SOUTHWEST MT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT
NEAR THE FRONT AND TROUGH FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL NE. NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING EAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAIN THETA-E
ADVECTION OVER EASTERN SD/CENTRAL NE ALLOWING TSRA TO END OVER THE
CWA. STILL MIGHT BE AN ELEVATED STORM THROUGH 12Z OVER CENTRAL SD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO COLD FRONT/LOW. LATEST WATER
VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND THEN ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDERS OF MT/ND. LIFT UNDER RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 120KT JET SUPPORTING ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHEAST MT AT 0830Z...WHICH WILL HEAD INTO WESTERN ND THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PUT OUT AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PUSH COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST REACHES
OF CWA THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET WILL ENHANCE SURFACE LOW ALONG COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
SLIP TO I-90 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW NEAR KRAP. VERY
WARM/MOIST AIR AHEAD OF LOW WILL POOL ALONG BOUNDARY WITH 2-4KJ/KG
MLCAPE AND 25-50J/KG MLCIN. EFFECTIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20M/S
EXPECTED ALONG BOUNDARY. AS CAP BREAKS ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...EXPECT
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRENGTH OF
INSTABILITY...VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. TORNADO THREAT IS THERE
GIVEN NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT...ELONGATING
HODOGRAPHS IF SUPERCELLS ARE POST FRONTAL...WHICH IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY GIVEN SETUP...BUT MLLCL/S FAIRLY HIGH EXCEPT FOR
FAVORED AREA JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW. ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY GROW UPSCALE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AND
MORPH INTO A POTENTIALLY STRONG FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OVER
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN SD WITH ENHANCED WIND THREAT. GIVEN
PARAMETERS...ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS ON TARGET EAST
OF RAPID CITY. COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF CWA TONIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND IT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
FRONTAL POSITION.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ON
TAP.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW ACROSS NE
WY AND FAR WRN SD WILL BRING BACK SOME CHANCES OF STORMS TUE
AFTN/NGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION WED AND THU WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS ARE DIVERGING GREATLY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH HOW AN UPPER LOW OVER CA WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE
MAIN FLOW. THE WETTER SOLUTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS MOST OF THE
ENERGY PUSHING WITHIN THE SW FLOW INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF
KEEP STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHICH
KEEPS THE REMNANT LOW PUSHING NE THRU THE NRN ROCKIES...ALONG WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH THIS
FRONT...NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONG STORMS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL END THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW...LEADING TO
VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 051537
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
937 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SD...WITH
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL ND...THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS
AREA...AND INTO NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS ND AND
NORTHERN SD THIS MORNING...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE OVER WY WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST SD...WITH SOME
ACTIVITY STARTING TO DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST NEAR THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WY. SKIES RANGE FROM
MAINLY SUNNY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER FAR
NORTHEAST WY AND NORTHWEST SD. WITH THE FRONT AND VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS RIGHT NOW RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S ACROSS NORTHWEST SD TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SD.
WINDS ARE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

MINOR UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...
WIND,,,AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE 70S OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST WY
AND NORTHWEST SD TO THE LOWER 90S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE GREATEST NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...GENERALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS SOUTH AND EASTWARD...THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND INTO
SOUTHWEST MT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT
NEAR THE FRONT AND TROUGH FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL NE. NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING EAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAIN THETA-E
ADVECTION OVER EASTERN SD/CENTRAL NE ALLOWING TSRA TO END OVER THE
CWA. STILL MIGHT BE AN ELEVATED STORM THROUGH 12Z OVER CENTRAL SD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO COLD FRONT/LOW. LATEST WATER
VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND THEN ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDERS OF MT/ND. LIFT UNDER RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 120KT JET SUPPORTING ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHEAST MT AT 0830Z...WHICH WILL HEAD INTO WESTERN ND THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PUT OUT AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PUSH COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST REACHES
OF CWA THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET WILL ENHANCE SURFACE LOW ALONG COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
SLIP TO I-90 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW NEAR KRAP. VERY
WARM/MOIST AIR AHEAD OF LOW WILL POOL ALONG BOUNDARY WITH 2-4KJ/KG
MLCAPE AND 25-50J/KG MLCIN. EFFECTIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20M/S
EXPECTED ALONG BOUNDARY. AS CAP BREAKS ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...EXPECT
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRENGTH OF
INSTABILITY...VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. TORNADO THREAT IS THERE
GIVEN NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT...ELONGATING
HODOGRAPHS IF SUPERCELLS ARE POST FRONTAL...WHICH IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY GIVEN SETUP...BUT MLLCL/S FAIRLY HIGH EXCEPT FOR
FAVORED AREA JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW. ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY GROW UPSCALE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AND
MORPH INTO A POTENTIALLY STRONG FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OVER
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN SD WITH ENHANCED WIND THREAT. GIVEN
PARAMETERS...ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS ON TARGET EAST
OF RAPID CITY. COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF CWA TONIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND IT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
FRONTAL POSITION.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ON
TAP.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW ACROSS NE
WY AND FAR WRN SD WILL BRING BACK SOME CHANCES OF STORMS TUE
AFTN/NGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION WED AND THU WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS ARE DIVERGING GREATLY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH HOW AN UPPER LOW OVER CA WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE
MAIN FLOW. THE WETTER SOLUTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS MOST OF THE
ENERGY PUSHING WITHIN THE SW FLOW INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF
KEEP STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHICH
KEEPS THE REMNANT LOW PUSHING NE THRU THE NRN ROCKIES...ALONG WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH THIS
FRONT...NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONG STORMS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL END THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW...LEADING TO
VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13





000
FXUS63 KUNR 051122
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
522 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND INTO
SOUTHWEST MT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT
NEAR THE FRONT AND TROUGH FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL NE. NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING EAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAIN THETA-E
ADVECTION OVER EASTERN SD/CENTRAL NE ALLOWING TSRA TO END OVER THE
CWA. STILL MIGHT BE AN ELEVATED STORM THROUGH 12Z OVER CENTRAL SD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO COLD FRONT/LOW. LATEST WATER
VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND THEN ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDERS OF MT/ND. LIFT UNDER RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 120KT JET SUPPORTING ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHEAST MT AT 0830Z...WHICH WILL HEAD INTO WESTERN ND THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PUT OUT AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PUSH COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST REACHES
OF CWA THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET WILL ENHANCE SURFACE LOW ALONG COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
SLIP TO I-90 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW NEAR KRAP. VERY
WARM/MOIST AIR AHEAD OF LOW WILL POOL ALONG BOUNDARY WITH 2-4KJ/KG
MLCAPE AND 25-50J/KG MLCIN. EFFECTIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20M/S
EXPECTED ALONG BOUNDARY. AS CAP BREAKS ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...EXPECT
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRENGTH OF
INSTABILITY...VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. TORNADO THREAT IS THERE
GIVEN NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT...ELONGATING
HODOGRAPHS IF SUPERCELLS ARE POST FRONTAL...WHICH IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY GIVEN SETUP...BUT MLLCL/S FAIRLY HIGH EXCEPT FOR
FAVORED AREA JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW. ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY GROW UPSCALE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AND
MORPH INTO A POTENTIALLY STRONG FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OVER
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN SD WITH ENHANCED WIND THREAT. GIVEN
PARAMETERS...ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS ON TARGET EAST
OF RAPID CITY. COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF CWA TONIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND IT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
FRONTAL POSITION.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ON
TAP.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW ACROSS NE
WY AND FAR WRN SD WILL BRING BACK SOME CHANCES OF STORMS TUE
AFTN/NGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION WED AND THU WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS ARE DIVERGING GREATLY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH HOW AN UPPER LOW OVER CA WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE
MAIN FLOW. THE WETTER SOLUTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS MOST OF THE
ENERGY PUSHING WITHIN THE SW FLOW INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF
KEEP STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHICH
KEEPS THE REMNANT LOW PUSHING NE THRU THE NRN ROCKIES...ALONG WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH THIS
FRONT...NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONG STORMS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL END THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW...LEADING TO
VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 050847
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
247 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND INTO
SOUTHWEST MT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT
NEAR THE FRONT AND TROUGH FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL NE. NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING EAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAIN THETA-E
ADVECTION OVER EASTERN SD/CENTRAL NE ALLOWING TSRA TO END OVER THE
CWA. STILL MIGHT BE AN ELEVATED STORM THROUGH 12Z OVER CENTRAL SD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO COLD FRONT/LOW. LATEST WATER
VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND THEN ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDERS OF MT/ND. LIFT UNDER RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 120KT JET SUPPORTING ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHEAST MT AT 0830Z...WHICH WILL HEAD INTO WESTERN ND THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PUT OUT AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PUSH COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST REACHES
OF CWA THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET WILL ENHANCE SURFACE LOW ALONG COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
SLIP TO I-90 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW NEAR KRAP. VERY
WARM/MOIST AIR AHEAD OF LOW WILL POOL ALONG BOUNDARY WITH 2-4KJ/KG
MLCAPE AND 25-50J/KG MLCIN. EFFECTIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20M/S
EXPECTED ALONG BOUNDARY. AS CAP BREAKS ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...EXPECT
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRENGTH OF
INSTABILITY...VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. TORNADO THREAT IS THERE
GIVEN NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT...ELONGATING
HODOGRAPHS IF SUPERCELLS ARE POST FRONTAL...WHICH IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY GIVEN SETUP...BUT MLLCL/S FAIRLY HIGH EXCEPT FOR
FAVORED AREA JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW. ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY GROW UPSCALE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AND
MORPH INTO A POTENTIALLY STRONG FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OVER
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN SD WITH ENHANCED WIND THREAT. GIVEN
PARAMETERS...ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS ON TARGET EAST
OF RAPID CITY. COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF CWA TONIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND IT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
FRONTAL POSITION.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ON
TAP.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW ACROSS NE
WY AND FAR WRN SD WILL BRING BACK SOME CHANCES OF STORMS TUE
AFTN/NGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION WED AND THU WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS ARE DIVERGING GREATLY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH HOW AN UPPER LOW OVER CA WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE
MAIN FLOW. THE WETTER SOLUTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS MOST OF THE
ENERGY PUSHING WITHIN THE SW FLOW INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF
KEEP STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHICH
KEEPS THE REMNANT LOW PUSHING NE THRU THE NRN ROCKIES...ALONG WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH THIS
FRONT...NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONG STORMS. STORM ACTIVITY
WILL END THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NW...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 050847
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
247 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND INTO
SOUTHWEST MT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT
NEAR THE FRONT AND TROUGH FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL NE. NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING EAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAIN THETA-E
ADVECTION OVER EASTERN SD/CENTRAL NE ALLOWING TSRA TO END OVER THE
CWA. STILL MIGHT BE AN ELEVATED STORM THROUGH 12Z OVER CENTRAL SD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO COLD FRONT/LOW. LATEST WATER
VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND THEN ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDERS OF MT/ND. LIFT UNDER RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 120KT JET SUPPORTING ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHEAST MT AT 0830Z...WHICH WILL HEAD INTO WESTERN ND THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PUT OUT AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PUSH COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST REACHES
OF CWA THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET WILL ENHANCE SURFACE LOW ALONG COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
SLIP TO I-90 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW NEAR KRAP. VERY
WARM/MOIST AIR AHEAD OF LOW WILL POOL ALONG BOUNDARY WITH 2-4KJ/KG
MLCAPE AND 25-50J/KG MLCIN. EFFECTIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20M/S
EXPECTED ALONG BOUNDARY. AS CAP BREAKS ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...EXPECT
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRENGTH OF
INSTABILITY...VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. TORNADO THREAT IS THERE
GIVEN NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT...ELONGATING
HODOGRAPHS IF SUPERCELLS ARE POST FRONTAL...WHICH IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY GIVEN SETUP...BUT MLLCL/S FAIRLY HIGH EXCEPT FOR
FAVORED AREA JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW. ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY GROW UPSCALE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AND
MORPH INTO A POTENTIALLY STRONG FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OVER
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN SD WITH ENHANCED WIND THREAT. GIVEN
PARAMETERS...ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS ON TARGET EAST
OF RAPID CITY. COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF CWA TONIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND IT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
FRONTAL POSITION.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ON
TAP.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW ACROSS NE
WY AND FAR WRN SD WILL BRING BACK SOME CHANCES OF STORMS TUE
AFTN/NGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION WED AND THU WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS ARE DIVERGING GREATLY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH HOW AN UPPER LOW OVER CA WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE
MAIN FLOW. THE WETTER SOLUTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS MOST OF THE
ENERGY PUSHING WITHIN THE SW FLOW INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF
KEEP STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHICH
KEEPS THE REMNANT LOW PUSHING NE THRU THE NRN ROCKIES...ALONG WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH THIS
FRONT...NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONG STORMS. STORM ACTIVITY
WILL END THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NW...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13





000
FXUS63 KUNR 050510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH SUN
MORNING...EXPECTED FOR POCKETS OF SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT
SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER WESTERN SD. SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER NE
WY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC





000
FXUS63 KUNR 050510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH SUN
MORNING...EXPECTED FOR POCKETS OF SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT
SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER WESTERN SD. SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER NE
WY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC





000
FXUS63 KUNR 050510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH SUN
MORNING...EXPECTED FOR POCKETS OF SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT
SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER WESTERN SD. SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER NE
WY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 050510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH SUN
MORNING...EXPECTED FOR POCKETS OF SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT
SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER WESTERN SD. SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER NE
WY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 042310
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
510 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 501 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING...MAINLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED
MOST LOCATIONS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SHRA
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE OVER NE WY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON...ESP OVER NE WY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 042310
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
510 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 501 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING...MAINLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED
MOST LOCATIONS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SHRA
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE OVER NE WY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON...ESP OVER NE WY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC





000
FXUS63 KUNR 042310
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
510 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 501 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING...MAINLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED
MOST LOCATIONS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SHRA
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE OVER NE WY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON...ESP OVER NE WY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 042310
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
510 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 501 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING...MAINLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED
MOST LOCATIONS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY...WITH SCT SHRA AND TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SHRA
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE OVER NE WY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDS LIKELY THERE. STRONG NW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON...ESP OVER NE WY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC





000
FXUS63 KUNR 042017
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
217 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE... ESPECIALLY
TOWARD CENTRAL SD...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS63 KUNR 042017
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
217 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE UNR
CWA...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND NO CIN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CIN OVER THE REGION...SATELLITE REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH ONLY AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO FIRE OFF SO FAR.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OFF
THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE
OFF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD DIE
DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN SETS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FIREWORKS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS THAT FIRE OFF IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND KEEP
STORMS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IN MONTANA SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE COLD FRONT A BIT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE STORMIER
SOLUTION FOR THE CWA AS THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MON
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...A TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING AT LEAST
LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE... ESPECIALLY
TOWARD CENTRAL SD...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 041736
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT COULD
DRIFT INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
BIGHORNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING. SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FIRING STORMS IN THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ERODE NEARLY ALL OF
THE CIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...WILL STILL KEEP
ISOLATED CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER 21Z TODAY. GIVEN CAPE AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...
ESPECIALLY TOWARD CENTRAL SD...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 041736
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT COULD
DRIFT INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
BIGHORNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING. SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FIRING STORMS IN THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ERODE NEARLY ALL OF
THE CIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...WILL STILL KEEP
ISOLATED CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER 21Z TODAY. GIVEN CAPE AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...
ESPECIALLY TOWARD CENTRAL SD...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS63 KUNR 041736
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT COULD
DRIFT INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
BIGHORNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING. SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FIRING STORMS IN THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ERODE NEARLY ALL OF
THE CIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...WILL STILL KEEP
ISOLATED CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER 21Z TODAY. GIVEN CAPE AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...
ESPECIALLY TOWARD CENTRAL SD...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS63 KUNR 041736
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT COULD
DRIFT INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
BIGHORNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING. SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FIRING STORMS IN THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ERODE NEARLY ALL OF
THE CIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...WILL STILL KEEP
ISOLATED CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER 21Z TODAY. GIVEN CAPE AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...
ESPECIALLY TOWARD CENTRAL SD...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 041707
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1107 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT COULD
DRIFT INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
BIGHORNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING. SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FIRING STORMS IN THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ERODE NEARLY ALL OF
THE CIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...WILL STILL KEEP
ISOLATED CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER 21Z TODAY. GIVEN CAPE AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 041707
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1107 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT COULD
DRIFT INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
BIGHORNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING. SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FIRING STORMS IN THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ERODE NEARLY ALL OF
THE CIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...WILL STILL KEEP
ISOLATED CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER 21Z TODAY. GIVEN CAPE AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13





000
FXUS63 KUNR 041206
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
606 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 041206
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
606 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13





000
FXUS63 KUNR 041206
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
606 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13





000
FXUS63 KUNR 041206
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
606 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 040826
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
226 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13





000
FXUS63 KUNR 040826
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
226 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 040826
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
226 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT...LOW ALONG FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
MT...AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE PER
KUDX VWP AND MODEL DEPICTIONS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING
ISOLATED -SHRA/TS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOUR
OVER MT DROPS SOUTHEAST. FEATURE WILL SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN SD TODAY. AROUND
2KJ/KG MLCAPE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH 15-20M/S 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. IT ISN/T CLEAR WHERE UPPER SUPPORT/NON-
SUPPORT WILL COME FROM...PERHAPS MT SHORTWAVE...OR PERHAPS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE. IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR
ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY AND NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA
TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-
E ADVECTION EAST OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TAIL DROPS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/ND/SD. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2-
4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A BLOB OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING HOURS AND SCOOT EAST. HIGH POPS WARRANTED
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
CLOUDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE NRN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA BY MON MRNG...WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13





000
FXUS63 KUNR 040508
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1016MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS OFF OF THE BLACK HILLS. IN ADDITION TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE BIGHORNS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. NONE OF THE CONVECTION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT...THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER PART OF THE CWA AND MODELS INDICATE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND 6Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
IS RATHER WEAK...BUT HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST OF CWA WILL BE IN A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
VERY WEAK...IF ANY...FORCING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
ACROSS THE CWA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD HELP INITIATE A
STORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE CAP SLOWLY ERODES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG...AND
0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
COULD BE SEVERE. CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA COULD
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ STRENGTHENING
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE POST FRONTAL SHORTWAVE. ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE NAM...WITH THE GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. IN
GENERAL...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS IN A BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT
HERE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA SAT AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC





000
FXUS63 KUNR 040508
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1016MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS OFF OF THE BLACK HILLS. IN ADDITION TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE BIGHORNS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. NONE OF THE CONVECTION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT...THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER PART OF THE CWA AND MODELS INDICATE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND 6Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
IS RATHER WEAK...BUT HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST OF CWA WILL BE IN A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
VERY WEAK...IF ANY...FORCING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
ACROSS THE CWA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD HELP INITIATE A
STORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE CAP SLOWLY ERODES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG...AND
0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
COULD BE SEVERE. CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA COULD
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ STRENGTHENING
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE POST FRONTAL SHORTWAVE. ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE NAM...WITH THE GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. IN
GENERAL...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS IN A BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT
HERE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA SAT AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 040508
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1016MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS OFF OF THE BLACK HILLS. IN ADDITION TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE BIGHORNS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. NONE OF THE CONVECTION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT...THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER PART OF THE CWA AND MODELS INDICATE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND 6Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
IS RATHER WEAK...BUT HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST OF CWA WILL BE IN A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
VERY WEAK...IF ANY...FORCING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
ACROSS THE CWA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD HELP INITIATE A
STORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE CAP SLOWLY ERODES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG...AND
0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
COULD BE SEVERE. CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA COULD
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ STRENGTHENING
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE POST FRONTAL SHORTWAVE. ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE NAM...WITH THE GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. IN
GENERAL...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS IN A BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT
HERE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA SAT AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC





000
FXUS63 KUNR 040508
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1016MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS OFF OF THE BLACK HILLS. IN ADDITION TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE BIGHORNS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. NONE OF THE CONVECTION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT...THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER PART OF THE CWA AND MODELS INDICATE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND 6Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
IS RATHER WEAK...BUT HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST OF CWA WILL BE IN A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
VERY WEAK...IF ANY...FORCING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
ACROSS THE CWA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD HELP INITIATE A
STORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE CAP SLOWLY ERODES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH CAPE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG...AND
0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
COULD BE SEVERE. CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA COULD
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ STRENGTHENING
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE POST FRONTAL SHORTWAVE. ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE NAM...WITH THE GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. IN
GENERAL...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON TIMING...BUT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS IN A BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT...A TROF IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT
HERE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA SAT AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities