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000
FXUS63 KUNR 302054
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
254 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTHWARD. BANDS OF RAIN
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS PRODUCED GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL...SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SO WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
THOSE AREAS UNTIL 600 PM MDT. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AS THE SFC PRESS GRADIENT SLACKENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF -SHRA OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TROF AXIS CROSSES FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...WITH DRIER
AIR BEHIND IT. A SMALL WAVE ON THE CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW MAY
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT WAVE IS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE REST OF THE FORECAST. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN US...WITH MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL ALSO SEE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
GUSTY WINDS...THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA AND
AGAIN SATURDAY BEHIND A TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN PEAK SATURDAY BEFORE COOLING AGAIN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STORM SYSTEM OVR NCNTRL SD CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD...W/
SHWRS REMAINING OVER NWRN SD THIS AFTN AND EVEN...THEN DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH THE PRECIP...WHILE CIGS ARE LIFTING
OVER SWRN SD WHERE DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE INCREASED. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WL DIMINISH THIS EVEN AND BCM WESTERLY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE OFF TOWARD THE NORTH AND THE BANDS
OF SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AN INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. A FLOOD
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FALL RIVER COUNTY AND PARTS OF
CUSTER...WESTERN PENNINGTON AND FAR WESTERN SHANNON COUNTIES UNTIL
700 PM MDT THIS EVENING. THOSE ARE THE AREAS WHICH RECEIVED THE
MOST RAIN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS
ARE RUNNING VERY HIGH IN THOSE AREAS. DEBRIS IN THOSE STREAMS CAN
QUICKLY BLOCK CULVERTS WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ026-
     027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...55
HYDROLOGY...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 302054
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
254 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTHWARD. BANDS OF RAIN
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS PRODUCED GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL...SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SO WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
THOSE AREAS UNTIL 600 PM MDT. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AS THE SFC PRESS GRADIENT SLACKENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF -SHRA OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TROF AXIS CROSSES FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...WITH DRIER
AIR BEHIND IT. A SMALL WAVE ON THE CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW MAY
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT WAVE IS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE REST OF THE FORECAST. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN US...WITH MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL ALSO SEE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
GUSTY WINDS...THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA AND
AGAIN SATURDAY BEHIND A TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN PEAK SATURDAY BEFORE COOLING AGAIN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STORM SYSTEM OVR NCNTRL SD CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD...W/
SHWRS REMAINING OVER NWRN SD THIS AFTN AND EVEN...THEN DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH THE PRECIP...WHILE CIGS ARE LIFTING
OVER SWRN SD WHERE DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE INCREASED. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WL DIMINISH THIS EVEN AND BCM WESTERLY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE OFF TOWARD THE NORTH AND THE BANDS
OF SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AN INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. A FLOOD
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FALL RIVER COUNTY AND PARTS OF
CUSTER...WESTERN PENNINGTON AND FAR WESTERN SHANNON COUNTIES UNTIL
700 PM MDT THIS EVENING. THOSE ARE THE AREAS WHICH RECEIVED THE
MOST RAIN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS
ARE RUNNING VERY HIGH IN THOSE AREAS. DEBRIS IN THOSE STREAMS CAN
QUICKLY BLOCK CULVERTS WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ026-
     027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...55
HYDROLOGY...10








000
FXUS63 KUNR 301732
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1132 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FLOOD HEADLINES. SEE THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW BETWEEN KAIA/KCDR/KIEN. UPPER LOW
NOW STACKED ON TOP OF SURFACE LOW PER WATER VAPOR. FORCING AHEAD
OF SYSTEM PRONOUNCED WITH CONVECTION FIRING ALONG WARM FRONT FROM
LOW INTO CENTRAL SD. CONVECTION FEEDING STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE
FROM SOUTHWEST ND THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE NE PANHANDLE.
00Z NAM A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION
THIS MORNING AND THE 00Z GFS FARTHEST WEST. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
AND YOU END UP WITH THE BEST RAINS OCCURRING IN THE CURRENT FLOOD
WATCH AREA. HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD FALL THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FEEDS INTO STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT/DEFORMATION ZONE. AS LOW
PASSES...RAPID SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AND WELL-
DEFINED ISALLOBARIC FORCING. COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT THAT
STRONG...BUT SUBSIDENCE/PRESSURE RISES BEHIND LOW SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A PERIOD OF ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS FROM WEST
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ALL OVER THE PLACE...BUT LIKELY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE OVER
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...STACKED SYSTEM RACES INTO SOUTHERN SK/MB AS IT WEAKENS.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME -SHRA OVER THE CWA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY...SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH SLICES THROUGH THE REGION WITH
BEST FORCING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND THUS HAVE
PAINTED BETTER POPS TOWARD THE SD/NE BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. A STRONG
UPPER WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
AREA. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE FROPA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN WITH UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER THAN AVERAGE THU/FRI...THEN WARM BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STORM SYSTEM NR KPHP MOVG NEWD...W/ WIDESPREAD SHWRS...ISOLD
TSTMS...AND MVFR CIGS/VSBY...ESP OVR WRN SD THIS AFTN. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WL INCRS OVER NERN WY/SWRN INTO S CNTRL SD THIS
AFTN. CIGS WL IMPROVE THIS EVNG...WHILE WNDS DIMINISH AND BCM
WESTERLY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER HAAKON COUNTY WILL
CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AS WELL. THE
FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WAS SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON. ALTHOUGH RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOUND OVER THE AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS ENDING...SO HAVE CANCELLED
THAT FLOOD WATCH. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FALL
RIVER COUNTY AND PARTS OF CUSTER...WESTERN PENNINGTON AND FAR
WESTERN SHANNON COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM MDT THIS EVENING. THOSE ARE
THE AREAS WHICH RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING VERY HIGH IN THOSE
AREAS. DEBRIS IN THOSE STREAMS CAN QUICKLY BLOCK CULVERTS WHICH
COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ026-
     027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
HYDROLOGY...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 301732
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1132 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FLOOD HEADLINES. SEE THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW BETWEEN KAIA/KCDR/KIEN. UPPER LOW
NOW STACKED ON TOP OF SURFACE LOW PER WATER VAPOR. FORCING AHEAD
OF SYSTEM PRONOUNCED WITH CONVECTION FIRING ALONG WARM FRONT FROM
LOW INTO CENTRAL SD. CONVECTION FEEDING STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE
FROM SOUTHWEST ND THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE NE PANHANDLE.
00Z NAM A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION
THIS MORNING AND THE 00Z GFS FARTHEST WEST. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
AND YOU END UP WITH THE BEST RAINS OCCURRING IN THE CURRENT FLOOD
WATCH AREA. HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD FALL THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FEEDS INTO STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT/DEFORMATION ZONE. AS LOW
PASSES...RAPID SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AND WELL-
DEFINED ISALLOBARIC FORCING. COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT THAT
STRONG...BUT SUBSIDENCE/PRESSURE RISES BEHIND LOW SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A PERIOD OF ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS FROM WEST
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ALL OVER THE PLACE...BUT LIKELY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE OVER
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...STACKED SYSTEM RACES INTO SOUTHERN SK/MB AS IT WEAKENS.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME -SHRA OVER THE CWA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY...SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH SLICES THROUGH THE REGION WITH
BEST FORCING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND THUS HAVE
PAINTED BETTER POPS TOWARD THE SD/NE BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. A STRONG
UPPER WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
AREA. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE FROPA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN WITH UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER THAN AVERAGE THU/FRI...THEN WARM BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STORM SYSTEM NR KPHP MOVG NEWD...W/ WIDESPREAD SHWRS...ISOLD
TSTMS...AND MVFR CIGS/VSBY...ESP OVR WRN SD THIS AFTN. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WL INCRS OVER NERN WY/SWRN INTO S CNTRL SD THIS
AFTN. CIGS WL IMPROVE THIS EVNG...WHILE WNDS DIMINISH AND BCM
WESTERLY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER HAAKON COUNTY WILL
CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AS WELL. THE
FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WAS SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON. ALTHOUGH RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOUND OVER THE AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS ENDING...SO HAVE CANCELLED
THAT FLOOD WATCH. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FALL
RIVER COUNTY AND PARTS OF CUSTER...WESTERN PENNINGTON AND FAR
WESTERN SHANNON COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM MDT THIS EVENING. THOSE ARE
THE AREAS WHICH RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING VERY HIGH IN THOSE
AREAS. DEBRIS IN THOSE STREAMS CAN QUICKLY BLOCK CULVERTS WHICH
COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ026-
     027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
HYDROLOGY...10








000
FXUS63 KUNR 300842
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
242 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW BETWEEN KAIA/KCDR/KIEN. UPPER LOW
NOW STACKED ON TOP OF SURFACE LOW PER WATER VAPOUR. FORCING AHEAD
OF SYSTEM PRONOUNCED WITH CONVECTION FIRING ALONG WARM FRONT FROM
LOW INTO CENTRAL SD. CONVECTION FEEDING STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE
FROM SOUTHWEST ND THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE NE PANHANDLE.
00Z NAM A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION
THIS MORNING AND THE 00Z GFS FARTHEST WEST. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
AND YOU END UP WITH THE BEST RAINS OCCURRING IN THE CURRENT FLOOD
WATCH AREA. HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD FALL THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FEEDS INTO STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT/DEFORMATION ZONE. AS LOW
PASSES...RAPID SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AND WELL-
DEFINED ISALLOBARIC FORCING. COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT THAT
STRONG...BUT SUBSIDENCE/PRESSURE RISES BEHIND LOW SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A PERIOD OF ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS FROM WEST
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ALL OVER THE PLACE...BUT LIKELY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE OVER
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...STACKED SYSTEM RACES INTO SOUTHERN SK/MB AS IT WEAKENS.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME -SHRA OVER THE CWA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY...SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH SLICES THROUGH THE REGION WITH
BEST FORCING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND THUS HAVE
PAINTED BETTER POPS TOWARD THE SD/NE BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. A STRONG
UPPER WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
AREA. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE FROPA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN WITH UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER THAN AVERAGE THU/FRI...THEN WARM BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY...AND LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WITH IFR CIGS/VSBY. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING/FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY...WHILE GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE NE
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG
DEFORMATION ZONE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM K2WX TO KCUT TO FAR SOUTHWEST SD THIS
MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL THIS MORNING
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE RESULT MAY BE MINOR FLOODING OF
CREEKS AND STREAMS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-024>031-
     041-042-072>074.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ027-041>044.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
     MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ032-046-047-049.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ026-030-031-
     072>074.

WY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ056-057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
HYDROLOGY...HELGESON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 300842
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
242 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW BETWEEN KAIA/KCDR/KIEN. UPPER LOW
NOW STACKED ON TOP OF SURFACE LOW PER WATER VAPOUR. FORCING AHEAD
OF SYSTEM PRONOUNCED WITH CONVECTION FIRING ALONG WARM FRONT FROM
LOW INTO CENTRAL SD. CONVECTION FEEDING STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE
FROM SOUTHWEST ND THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE NE PANHANDLE.
00Z NAM A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION
THIS MORNING AND THE 00Z GFS FARTHEST WEST. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
AND YOU END UP WITH THE BEST RAINS OCCURRING IN THE CURRENT FLOOD
WATCH AREA. HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD FALL THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FEEDS INTO STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT/DEFORMATION ZONE. AS LOW
PASSES...RAPID SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AND WELL-
DEFINED ISALLOBARIC FORCING. COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT THAT
STRONG...BUT SUBSIDENCE/PRESSURE RISES BEHIND LOW SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A PERIOD OF ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS FROM WEST
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ALL OVER THE PLACE...BUT LIKELY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE OVER
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...STACKED SYSTEM RACES INTO SOUTHERN SK/MB AS IT WEAKENS.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME -SHRA OVER THE CWA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY...SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH SLICES THROUGH THE REGION WITH
BEST FORCING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND THUS HAVE
PAINTED BETTER POPS TOWARD THE SD/NE BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. A STRONG
UPPER WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
AREA. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE FROPA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN WITH UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER THAN AVERAGE THU/FRI...THEN WARM BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY...AND LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WITH IFR CIGS/VSBY. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING/FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY...WHILE GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE NE
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG
DEFORMATION ZONE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM K2WX TO KCUT TO FAR SOUTHWEST SD THIS
MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL THIS MORNING
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE RESULT MAY BE MINOR FLOODING OF
CREEKS AND STREAMS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-024>031-
     041-042-072>074.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ027-041>044.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
     MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ032-046-047-049.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ026-030-031-
     072>074.

WY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ056-057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
HYDROLOGY...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 300506
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1106 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES DEEPENING LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO. WATER VAPOR SHOW INTENSE WAVE EJECTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
COLORADO. LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. SHORT TERM MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING
OFF ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM
NEAR KEIN-KPHP TUESDAY MORNING. STILL ON TRACK FOR HEAVY RAIN
OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALL-
RISE COUPLET ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW...HAVE TRENDED WINDS UP
FOR TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE RAPID CITY AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENING AS AN UPPER
LOW...CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO/WRN WYOMING MOVES EASTWARD. EASTERLY
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SFC WINDS IS KEEPING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF FOG OVER MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INITIAL BAND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SPIN EASTWARD...BECOMING TIGHTLY WRAPPED OVER THE CWA BY 12Z
TUESDAY...THEN MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY EVE. FORCING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE RELATIVELY STRONG WITH A SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OF MOISTURE
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY STRONG AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO
DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTH TONIGHT. SUSTAINED 850-700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE WAVES
OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO FALL TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER LIFT IF
AT A MAXIMUM. 1 TO 2.5 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL...ESP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. DUE TO THE SOAKING RAIN THAT FELL OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MORNING...ESP OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE BLACK HILLS
AREA...COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY BUT IT WILL LEAVE
CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE IN IT/S WAKE. LEFTOVER -SHRA EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE BROAD TROUGH. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT IN AS THE BACKSIDE
OF THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW AND THE INCOMING HIGH...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS A
120-KT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE ECM IS HINTING AT A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS DRY. UPPER RIDGING WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA EARLY TUESDAY...AND LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH IFR CIGS/VSBY. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN OVER SOME AREAS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOME AREAS OF THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. ANOTHER 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY
CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     024>031-041-042-072>074.

WY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WYZ056-057-071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...7
HYDROLOGY...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 300506
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1106 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES DEEPENING LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO. WATER VAPOR SHOW INTENSE WAVE EJECTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
COLORADO. LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. SHORT TERM MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING
OFF ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM
NEAR KEIN-KPHP TUESDAY MORNING. STILL ON TRACK FOR HEAVY RAIN
OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALL-
RISE COUPLET ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW...HAVE TRENDED WINDS UP
FOR TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE RAPID CITY AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENING AS AN UPPER
LOW...CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO/WRN WYOMING MOVES EASTWARD. EASTERLY
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SFC WINDS IS KEEPING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF FOG OVER MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INITIAL BAND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SPIN EASTWARD...BECOMING TIGHTLY WRAPPED OVER THE CWA BY 12Z
TUESDAY...THEN MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY EVE. FORCING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE RELATIVELY STRONG WITH A SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OF MOISTURE
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY STRONG AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO
DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTH TONIGHT. SUSTAINED 850-700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE WAVES
OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO FALL TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER LIFT IF
AT A MAXIMUM. 1 TO 2.5 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL...ESP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. DUE TO THE SOAKING RAIN THAT FELL OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MORNING...ESP OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE BLACK HILLS
AREA...COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY BUT IT WILL LEAVE
CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE IN IT/S WAKE. LEFTOVER -SHRA EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE BROAD TROUGH. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT IN AS THE BACKSIDE
OF THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW AND THE INCOMING HIGH...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS A
120-KT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE ECM IS HINTING AT A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS DRY. UPPER RIDGING WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA EARLY TUESDAY...AND LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH IFR CIGS/VSBY. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN OVER SOME AREAS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOME AREAS OF THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. ANOTHER 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY
CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     024>031-041-042-072>074.

WY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WYZ056-057-071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...7
HYDROLOGY...10








000
FXUS63 KUNR 300008
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
608 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES DEEPENING LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO. WATER VAPOR SHOW INTENSE WAVE EJECTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
COLORADO. LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. SHORT TERM MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING
OFF ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM
NEAR KEIN-KPHP TUESDAY MORNING. STILL ON TRACK FOR HEAVY RAIN
OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALL-
RISE COUPLET ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW...HAVE TRENDED WINDS UP
FOR TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE RAPID CITY AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENING AS AN UPPER
LOW...CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO/WRN WYOMING MOVES EASTWARD. EASTERLY
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SFC WINDS IS KEEPING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF FOG OVER MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INITIAL BAND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SPIN EASTWARD...BECOMING TIGHTLY WRAPPED OVER THE CWA BY 12Z
TUESDAY...THEN MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY EVE. FORCING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE RELATIVELY STRONG WITH A SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OF MOISTURE
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY STRONG AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO
DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTH TONIGHT. SUSTAINED 850-700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE WAVES
OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO FALL TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER LIFT IF
AT A MAXIMUM. 1 TO 2.5 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL...ESP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. DUE TO THE SOAKING RAIN THAT FELL OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MORNING...ESP OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE BLACK HILLS
AREA...COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY BUT IT WILL LEAVE
CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE IN IT/S WAKE. LEFTOVER -SHRA EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE BROAD TROUGH. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT IN AS THE BACKSIDE
OF THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW AND THE INCOMING HIGH...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS A
120-KT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE ECM IS HINTING AT A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS DRY. UPPER RIDGING WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA EARLY TUESDAY...AND LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH IFR CIGS/VSBY. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN OVER SOME AREAS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOME AREAS OF THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. ANOTHER 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY
CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     024>031-041-042-072>074.

WY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WYZ056-057-071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...7
HYDROLOGY...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 300008
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
608 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES DEEPENING LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO. WATER VAPOR SHOW INTENSE WAVE EJECTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
COLORADO. LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. SHORT TERM MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING
OFF ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM
NEAR KEIN-KPHP TUESDAY MORNING. STILL ON TRACK FOR HEAVY RAIN
OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALL-
RISE COUPLET ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW...HAVE TRENDED WINDS UP
FOR TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE RAPID CITY AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENING AS AN UPPER
LOW...CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO/WRN WYOMING MOVES EASTWARD. EASTERLY
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SFC WINDS IS KEEPING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF FOG OVER MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INITIAL BAND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SPIN EASTWARD...BECOMING TIGHTLY WRAPPED OVER THE CWA BY 12Z
TUESDAY...THEN MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY EVE. FORCING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE RELATIVELY STRONG WITH A SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OF MOISTURE
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY STRONG AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO
DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTH TONIGHT. SUSTAINED 850-700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE WAVES
OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO FALL TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER LIFT IF
AT A MAXIMUM. 1 TO 2.5 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL...ESP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. DUE TO THE SOAKING RAIN THAT FELL OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MORNING...ESP OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE BLACK HILLS
AREA...COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY BUT IT WILL LEAVE
CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE IN IT/S WAKE. LEFTOVER -SHRA EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE BROAD TROUGH. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT IN AS THE BACKSIDE
OF THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW AND THE INCOMING HIGH...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS A
120-KT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE ECM IS HINTING AT A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS DRY. UPPER RIDGING WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA EARLY TUESDAY...AND LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH IFR CIGS/VSBY. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN OVER SOME AREAS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOME AREAS OF THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. ANOTHER 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY
CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     024>031-041-042-072>074.

WY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WYZ056-057-071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...7
HYDROLOGY...10








000
FXUS63 KUNR 292111
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
311 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENING AS AN UPPER
LOW...CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO/WRN WYOMING MOVES EASTWARD. EASTERLY
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SFC WINDS IS KEEPING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF FOG OVER MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INITIAL BAND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SPIN EASTWARD...BECOMING TIGHTLY WRAPPED OVER THE CWA BY 12Z
TUESDAY...THEN MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY EVE. FORCING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE RELATIVELY STRONG WITH A SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OF MOISTURE
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY STRONG AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO
DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTH TONIGHT. SUSTAINED 850-700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE WAVES
OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO FALL TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER LIFT IF
AT A MAXIMUM. 1 TO 2.5 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL...ESP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. DUE TO THE SOAKING RAIN THAT FELL OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MORNING...ESP OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE BLACK HILLS
AREA...COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY BUT IT WILL LEAVE
CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE IN IT/S WAKE. LEFTOVER -SHRA EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE BROAD TROUGH. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT IN AS THE BACKSIDE
OF THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW AND THE INCOMING HIGH...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS A
120-KT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE ECM IS HINTING AT A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS DRY. UPPER RIDGING WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE
REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO THE AREA. IFR VSBY IS EXPECTED WITH THE
HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN OVER SOME AREAS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOME AREAS OF THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. ANOTHER 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY
CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     024>031-041-042-072>074.

WY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WYZ056-057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
HYDROLOGY...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 292111
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
311 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENING AS AN UPPER
LOW...CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO/WRN WYOMING MOVES EASTWARD. EASTERLY
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SFC WINDS IS KEEPING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF FOG OVER MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INITIAL BAND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SPIN EASTWARD...BECOMING TIGHTLY WRAPPED OVER THE CWA BY 12Z
TUESDAY...THEN MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY EVE. FORCING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE RELATIVELY STRONG WITH A SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OF MOISTURE
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY STRONG AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO
DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTH TONIGHT. SUSTAINED 850-700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE WAVES
OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO FALL TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER LIFT IF
AT A MAXIMUM. 1 TO 2.5 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL...ESP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. DUE TO THE SOAKING RAIN THAT FELL OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MORNING...ESP OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE BLACK HILLS
AREA...COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY BUT IT WILL LEAVE
CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE IN IT/S WAKE. LEFTOVER -SHRA EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE BROAD TROUGH. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT IN AS THE BACKSIDE
OF THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW AND THE INCOMING HIGH...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS A
120-KT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE ECM IS HINTING AT A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS DRY. UPPER RIDGING WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE
REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO THE AREA. IFR VSBY IS EXPECTED WITH THE
HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN OVER SOME AREAS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOME AREAS OF THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. ANOTHER 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY
CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     024>031-041-042-072>074.

WY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WYZ056-057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
HYDROLOGY...10








000
FXUS63 KUNR 291742
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1142 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDTM ON SEP 29 2014

HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY...IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN THE FLOODING OF
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CO AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AS A RESULT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST NV/NORTHWEST UT WITH A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES WRAPPING AROUND IT...ONE OVER SOUTHWEST SD AND ANOTHER
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WY. INITIAL WAVE CAUSING CLUSTER OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVER CWA AT THE MOMENT WITH NEXT CLUSTER OVER SOUTHEAST
WY...ALL HEADING TO THE NORTH/NORTH-NORTHWEST. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW WILL SPIN NORTHEAST
WRAPPING UP QUITE TIGHTLY OVER THE CWA 12Z TUESDAY AND THEN RACING
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN ND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING AHEAD OF IT
WILL BE QUITE PRONOUNCED WITH SUSTAINED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON
NOSE OF 110KT JET STREAK. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY STRONG
AS SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTH
TONIGHT...STACKING UNDER LOW OVER CWA TUESDAY. SUSTAINED 850-700MB
THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE
WAVES OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOULD FALL TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER UPSIDENCE
MAXIMIZED. 0.5-1.5 INCHES RAIN LIKELY TO FALL OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR EAST WHEN DRY SLOW MAY DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT/TUESDAY. LOCAL 1.5-2.5 INCH AMOUNTS LIKELY OVER FAR
NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY WEATHER...TIME OF
YEAR...AND EXPECTED SOAKING NATURE OF RAINS...WILL FORGO ANY HYDRO
HEADLINES. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND LOW...POSSIBLY
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALL-LIKE
WITH THE SUSTAINED PRECIPITATION...BUT NEAR NORMAL OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. FINALLY...CAPE/SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF
STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SNEAKING INTO THE FAR SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY BUT IT WILL LEAVE CYCLONIC
FLOW/MOISTURE IN IT/S WAKE. LEFTOVER -SHRA EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
BROAD TROUGH. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP
DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WILL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE
REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO THE AREA. IFR VSBY IS EXPECTED WITH THE
HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN OVER SOME AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOME AREAS OF THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING
OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     024>031-041-042-072>074.

WY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WYZ056-057-071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...POJORLIE
HYDROLOGY...10








000
FXUS63 KUNR 291742
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1142 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDTM ON SEP 29 2014

HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY...IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN THE FLOODING OF
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CO AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AS A RESULT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST NV/NORTHWEST UT WITH A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES WRAPPING AROUND IT...ONE OVER SOUTHWEST SD AND ANOTHER
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WY. INITIAL WAVE CAUSING CLUSTER OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVER CWA AT THE MOMENT WITH NEXT CLUSTER OVER SOUTHEAST
WY...ALL HEADING TO THE NORTH/NORTH-NORTHWEST. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW WILL SPIN NORTHEAST
WRAPPING UP QUITE TIGHTLY OVER THE CWA 12Z TUESDAY AND THEN RACING
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN ND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING AHEAD OF IT
WILL BE QUITE PRONOUNCED WITH SUSTAINED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON
NOSE OF 110KT JET STREAK. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY STRONG
AS SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTH
TONIGHT...STACKING UNDER LOW OVER CWA TUESDAY. SUSTAINED 850-700MB
THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE
WAVES OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOULD FALL TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER UPSIDENCE
MAXIMIZED. 0.5-1.5 INCHES RAIN LIKELY TO FALL OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR EAST WHEN DRY SLOW MAY DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT/TUESDAY. LOCAL 1.5-2.5 INCH AMOUNTS LIKELY OVER FAR
NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY WEATHER...TIME OF
YEAR...AND EXPECTED SOAKING NATURE OF RAINS...WILL FORGO ANY HYDRO
HEADLINES. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND LOW...POSSIBLY
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALL-LIKE
WITH THE SUSTAINED PRECIPITATION...BUT NEAR NORMAL OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. FINALLY...CAPE/SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF
STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SNEAKING INTO THE FAR SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY BUT IT WILL LEAVE CYCLONIC
FLOW/MOISTURE IN IT/S WAKE. LEFTOVER -SHRA EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
BROAD TROUGH. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP
DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WILL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE
REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO THE AREA. IFR VSBY IS EXPECTED WITH THE
HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN OVER SOME AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOME AREAS OF THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING
OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     024>031-041-042-072>074.

WY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WYZ056-057-071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...POJORLIE
HYDROLOGY...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 291706
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1106 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

N-S BAND OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD THIS
MORNING AND MAY SHIFT A BIT FARTHER EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS
DEPICTED IN SOME OF THE 12Z MODELS. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO BETTER
DEPICT THIS SCENARIO. HAVE ALSO LOWERED THE FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CO AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AS A RESULT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST NV/NORTHWEST UT WITH A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES WRAPPING AROUND IT...ONE OVER SOUTHWEST SD AND ANOTHER
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WY. INITIAL WAVE CAUSING CLUSTER OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVER CWA AT THE MOMENT WITH NEXT CLUSTER OVER SOUTHEAST
WY...ALL HEADING TO THE NORTH/NORTH-NORTHWEST. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW WILL SPIN NORTHEAST
WRAPPING UP QUITE TIGHTLY OVER THE CWA 12Z TUESDAY AND THEN RACING
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN ND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING AHEAD OF IT
WILL BE QUITE PRONOUNCED WITH SUSTAINED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON
NOSE OF 110KT JET STREAK. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY STRONG
AS SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTH
TONIGHT...STACKING UNDER LOW OVER CWA TUESDAY. SUSTAINED 850-700MB
THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE
WAVES OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOULD FALL TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER UPSIDENCE
MAXIMIZED. 0.5-1.5 INCHES RAIN LIKELY TO FALL OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR EAST WHEN DRY SLOW MAY DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT/TUESDAY. LOCAL 1.5-2.5 INCH AMOUNTS LIKELY OVER FAR
NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY WEATHER...TIME OF
YEAR...AND EXPECTED SOAKING NATURE OF RAINS...WILL FORGO ANY HYDRO
HEADLINES. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND LOW...POSSIBLY
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALL-LIKE
WITH THE SUSTAINED PRECIPITATION...BUT NEAR NORMAL OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. FINALLY...CAPE/SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF
STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SNEAKING INTO THE FAR SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY BUT IT WILL LEAVE CYCLONIC
FLOW/MOISTURE IN IT/S WAKE. LEFTOVER -SHRA EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
BROAD TROUGH. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP
DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WILL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE
REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO THE AREA. IFR VSBY IS EXPECTED WITH THE
HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...POJORLIE








000
FXUS63 KUNR 291706
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1106 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

N-S BAND OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD THIS
MORNING AND MAY SHIFT A BIT FARTHER EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS
DEPICTED IN SOME OF THE 12Z MODELS. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO BETTER
DEPICT THIS SCENARIO. HAVE ALSO LOWERED THE FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CO AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AS A RESULT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST NV/NORTHWEST UT WITH A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES WRAPPING AROUND IT...ONE OVER SOUTHWEST SD AND ANOTHER
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WY. INITIAL WAVE CAUSING CLUSTER OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVER CWA AT THE MOMENT WITH NEXT CLUSTER OVER SOUTHEAST
WY...ALL HEADING TO THE NORTH/NORTH-NORTHWEST. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW WILL SPIN NORTHEAST
WRAPPING UP QUITE TIGHTLY OVER THE CWA 12Z TUESDAY AND THEN RACING
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN ND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING AHEAD OF IT
WILL BE QUITE PRONOUNCED WITH SUSTAINED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON
NOSE OF 110KT JET STREAK. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY STRONG
AS SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTH
TONIGHT...STACKING UNDER LOW OVER CWA TUESDAY. SUSTAINED 850-700MB
THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE
WAVES OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOULD FALL TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER UPSIDENCE
MAXIMIZED. 0.5-1.5 INCHES RAIN LIKELY TO FALL OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR EAST WHEN DRY SLOW MAY DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT/TUESDAY. LOCAL 1.5-2.5 INCH AMOUNTS LIKELY OVER FAR
NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY WEATHER...TIME OF
YEAR...AND EXPECTED SOAKING NATURE OF RAINS...WILL FORGO ANY HYDRO
HEADLINES. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND LOW...POSSIBLY
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALL-LIKE
WITH THE SUSTAINED PRECIPITATION...BUT NEAR NORMAL OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. FINALLY...CAPE/SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF
STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SNEAKING INTO THE FAR SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY BUT IT WILL LEAVE CYCLONIC
FLOW/MOISTURE IN IT/S WAKE. LEFTOVER -SHRA EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
BROAD TROUGH. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP
DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WILL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE
REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO THE AREA. IFR VSBY IS EXPECTED WITH THE
HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...POJORLIE









000
FXUS63 KUNR 291533
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
933 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

N-S BAND OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD THIS
MORNING AND MAY SHIFT A BIT FARTHER EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS
DEPICTED IN SOME OF THE 12Z MODELS. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO BETTER
DEPICT THIS SCENERIO. HAVE ALSO LOWERED THE FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CO AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AS A RESULT. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST NV/NORTHWEST UT WITH A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES WRAPPING AROUND IT...ONE OVER SOUTHWEST SD AND ANOTHER
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WY. INITIAL WAVE CAUSING CLUSTER OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVER CWA AT THE MOMENT WITH NEXT CLUSTER OVER SOUTHEAST
WY...ALL HEADING TO THE NORTH/NORTH-NORTHWEST. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW WILL SPIN NORTHEAST
WRAPPING UP QUITE TIGHTLY OVER THE CWA 12Z TUESDAY AND THEN RACING
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN ND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING AHEAD OF IT
WILL BE QUITE PRONOUNCED WITH SUSTAINED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON
NOSE OF 110KT JET STREAK. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY STRONG
AS SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTH
TONIGHT...STACKING UNDER LOW OVER CWA TUESDAY. SUSTAINED 850-700MB
THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE
WAVES OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOULD FALL TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER UPSIDENCE
MAXIMIZED. 0.5-1.5 INCHES RAIN LIKELY TO FALL OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR EAST WHEN DRY SLOW MAY DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT/TUESDAY. LOCAL 1.5-2.5 INCH AMOUNTS LIKELY OVER FAR
NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY WEATHER...TIME OF
YEAR...AND EXPECTED SOAKING NATURE OF RAINS...WILL FORGO ANY HYDRO
HEADLINES. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND LOW...POSSIBLY
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALL-LIKE
WITH THE SUSTAINED PRECIPITATION...BUT NEAR NORMAL OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. FINALLY...CAPE/SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF
STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SNEAKING INTO THE FAR SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY BUT IT WILL LEAVE CYCLONIC
FLOW/MOISTURE IN IT/S WAKE. LEFTOVER -SHRA EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
BROAD TROUGH. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP
DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WILL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO THE AREA. MVFR VSBY
IS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIP.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KUNR 291533
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
933 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

N-S BAND OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD THIS
MORNING AND MAY SHIFT A BIT FARTHER EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS
DEPICTED IN SOME OF THE 12Z MODELS. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO BETTER
DEPICT THIS SCENERIO. HAVE ALSO LOWERED THE FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CO AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AS A RESULT. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST NV/NORTHWEST UT WITH A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES WRAPPING AROUND IT...ONE OVER SOUTHWEST SD AND ANOTHER
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WY. INITIAL WAVE CAUSING CLUSTER OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVER CWA AT THE MOMENT WITH NEXT CLUSTER OVER SOUTHEAST
WY...ALL HEADING TO THE NORTH/NORTH-NORTHWEST. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW WILL SPIN NORTHEAST
WRAPPING UP QUITE TIGHTLY OVER THE CWA 12Z TUESDAY AND THEN RACING
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN ND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING AHEAD OF IT
WILL BE QUITE PRONOUNCED WITH SUSTAINED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON
NOSE OF 110KT JET STREAK. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY STRONG
AS SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTH
TONIGHT...STACKING UNDER LOW OVER CWA TUESDAY. SUSTAINED 850-700MB
THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE
WAVES OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOULD FALL TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER UPSIDENCE
MAXIMIZED. 0.5-1.5 INCHES RAIN LIKELY TO FALL OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR EAST WHEN DRY SLOW MAY DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT/TUESDAY. LOCAL 1.5-2.5 INCH AMOUNTS LIKELY OVER FAR
NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY WEATHER...TIME OF
YEAR...AND EXPECTED SOAKING NATURE OF RAINS...WILL FORGO ANY HYDRO
HEADLINES. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND LOW...POSSIBLY
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALL-LIKE
WITH THE SUSTAINED PRECIPITATION...BUT NEAR NORMAL OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. FINALLY...CAPE/SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF
STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SNEAKING INTO THE FAR SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY BUT IT WILL LEAVE CYCLONIC
FLOW/MOISTURE IN IT/S WAKE. LEFTOVER -SHRA EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
BROAD TROUGH. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP
DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WILL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO THE AREA. MVFR VSBY
IS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIP.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13








000
FXUS63 KUNR 291032
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
432 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CO AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AS A RESULT. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST NV/NORTHWEST UT WITH A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES WRAPPING AROUND IT...ONE OVER SOUTHWEST SD AND ANOTHER
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WY. INITIAL WAVE CAUSING CLUSTER OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVER CWA AT THE MOMENT WITH NEXT CLUSTER OVER SOUTHEAST
WY...ALL HEADING TO THE NORTH/NORTH-NORTHWEST. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW WILL SPIN NORTHEAST
WRAPPING UP QUITE TIGHTLY OVER THE CWA 12Z TUESDAY AND THEN RACING
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN ND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING AHEAD OF IT
WILL BE QUITE PRONOUNCED WITH SUSTAINED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON
NOSE OF 110KT JET STREAK. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY STRONG
AS SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTH
TONIGHT...STACKING UNDER LOW OVER CWA TUESDAY. SUSTAINED 850-700MB
THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE
WAVES OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOULD FALL TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER UPSIDENCE
MAXIMIZED. 0.5-1.5 INCHES RAIN LIKELY TO FALL OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR EAST WHEN DRY SLOW MAY DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT/TUESDAY. LOCAL 1.5-2.5 INCH AMOUNTS LIKELY OVER FAR
NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY WEATHER...TIME OF
YEAR...AND EXPECTED SOAKING NATURE OF RAINS...WILL FORGO ANY HYDRO
HEADLINES. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND LOW...POSSIBLY
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALL-LIKE
WITH THE SUSTAINED PRECIPITATION...BUT NEAR NORMAL OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. FINALLY...CAPE/SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF
STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SNEAKING INTO THE FAR SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY BUT IT WILL LEAVE CYCLONIC
FLOW/MOISTURE IN IT/S WAKE. LEFTOVER -SHRA EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
BROAD TROUGH. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP
DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WILL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO THE AREA. MVFR VSBY
IS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13








000
FXUS63 KUNR 291032
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
432 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CO AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AS A RESULT. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST NV/NORTHWEST UT WITH A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES WRAPPING AROUND IT...ONE OVER SOUTHWEST SD AND ANOTHER
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WY. INITIAL WAVE CAUSING CLUSTER OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVER CWA AT THE MOMENT WITH NEXT CLUSTER OVER SOUTHEAST
WY...ALL HEADING TO THE NORTH/NORTH-NORTHWEST. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW WILL SPIN NORTHEAST
WRAPPING UP QUITE TIGHTLY OVER THE CWA 12Z TUESDAY AND THEN RACING
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN ND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING AHEAD OF IT
WILL BE QUITE PRONOUNCED WITH SUSTAINED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON
NOSE OF 110KT JET STREAK. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY STRONG
AS SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTH
TONIGHT...STACKING UNDER LOW OVER CWA TUESDAY. SUSTAINED 850-700MB
THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE
WAVES OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOULD FALL TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER UPSIDENCE
MAXIMIZED. 0.5-1.5 INCHES RAIN LIKELY TO FALL OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR EAST WHEN DRY SLOW MAY DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT/TUESDAY. LOCAL 1.5-2.5 INCH AMOUNTS LIKELY OVER FAR
NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY WEATHER...TIME OF
YEAR...AND EXPECTED SOAKING NATURE OF RAINS...WILL FORGO ANY HYDRO
HEADLINES. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND LOW...POSSIBLY
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALL-LIKE
WITH THE SUSTAINED PRECIPITATION...BUT NEAR NORMAL OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. FINALLY...CAPE/SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF
STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SNEAKING INTO THE FAR SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY BUT IT WILL LEAVE CYCLONIC
FLOW/MOISTURE IN IT/S WAKE. LEFTOVER -SHRA EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
BROAD TROUGH. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP
DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WILL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO THE AREA. MVFR VSBY
IS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KUNR 290833
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
233 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CO AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AS A RESULT. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST NV/NORTHWEST UT WITH A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES WRAPPING AROUND IT...ONE OVER SOUTHWEST SD AND ANOTHER
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WY. INITIAL WAVE CAUSING CLUSTER OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVER CWA AT THE MOMENT WITH NEXT CLUSTER OVER SOUTHEAST
WY...ALL HEADING TO THE NORTH/NORTH-NORTHWEST. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW WILL SPIN NORTHEAST
WRAPPING UP QUITE TIGHTLY OVER THE CWA 12Z TUESDAY AND THEN RACING
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN ND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING AHEAD OF IT
WILL BE QUITE PRONOUNCED WITH SUSTAINED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON
NOSE OF 110KT JET STREAK. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY STRONG
AS SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTH
TONIGHT...STACKING UNDER LOW OVER CWA TUESDAY. SUSTAINED 850-700MB
THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE
WAVES OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOULD FALL TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER UPSIDENCE
MAXIMIZED. 0.5-1.5 INCHES RAIN LIKELY TO FALL OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR EAST WHEN DRY SLOW MAY DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT/TUESDAY. LOCAL 1.5-2.5 INCH AMOUNTS LIKELY OVER FAR
NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY WEATHER...TIME OF
YEAR...AND EXPECTED SOAKING NATURE OF RAINS...WILL FORGO ANY HYDRO
HEADLINES. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND LOW...POSSIBLY
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALL-LIKE
WITH THE SUSTAINED PRECIPITATION...BUT NEAR NORMAL OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. FINALLY...CAPE/SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF
STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SNEAKING INTO THE FAR SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY BUT IT WILL LEAVE CYCLONIC
FLOW/MOISTURE IN IT/S WAKE. LEFTOVER -SHRA EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
BROAD TROUGH. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP
DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WILL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO THE AREA. MVFR VSBY
IS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS63 KUNR 290833
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
233 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CO AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AS A RESULT. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST NV/NORTHWEST UT WITH A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES WRAPPING AROUND IT...ONE OVER SOUTHWEST SD AND ANOTHER
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WY. INITIAL WAVE CAUSING CLUSTER OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVER CWA AT THE MOMENT WITH NEXT CLUSTER OVER SOUTHEAST
WY...ALL HEADING TO THE NORTH/NORTH-NORTHWEST. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW WILL SPIN NORTHEAST
WRAPPING UP QUITE TIGHTLY OVER THE CWA 12Z TUESDAY AND THEN RACING
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN ND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING AHEAD OF IT
WILL BE QUITE PRONOUNCED WITH SUSTAINED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON
NOSE OF 110KT JET STREAK. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY STRONG
AS SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTH
TONIGHT...STACKING UNDER LOW OVER CWA TUESDAY. SUSTAINED 850-700MB
THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE
WAVES OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOULD FALL TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN DEEP LAYER UPSIDENCE
MAXIMIZED. 0.5-1.5 INCHES RAIN LIKELY TO FALL OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR EAST WHEN DRY SLOW MAY DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT/TUESDAY. LOCAL 1.5-2.5 INCH AMOUNTS LIKELY OVER FAR
NORTHEAST WY/FAR WESTERN SD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY WEATHER...TIME OF
YEAR...AND EXPECTED SOAKING NATURE OF RAINS...WILL FORGO ANY HYDRO
HEADLINES. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND LOW...POSSIBLY
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALL-LIKE
WITH THE SUSTAINED PRECIPITATION...BUT NEAR NORMAL OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. FINALLY...CAPE/SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF
STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SNEAKING INTO THE FAR SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY BUT IT WILL LEAVE CYCLONIC
FLOW/MOISTURE IN IT/S WAKE. LEFTOVER -SHRA EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
BROAD TROUGH. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP
DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WILL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO THE AREA. MVFR VSBY
IS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13





000
FXUS63 KUNR 290501
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1101 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS COMPLEX UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW. AT THE
SURFACE...DEEPENING LOW IS OVER ERN CO WITH TROF EXTENDING NEWD
THROUGH SCNTRL SD. WDSPRD LOW STRATUS COVERS MUCH OF THE CWFA
EARLY THIS AFTN WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN NERN WY
TO THE LOWER 80S IN SCNTRL SD.

TONIGHT...LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND SPREAD
WDSPRD SHRA/ISOLD TSRA TO NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD...WITH BEST
CHANCES ARRIVING AFT MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY NEWD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES BY
LATE AFTN. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE PCPN AT TIMES DURING AS
THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TRACKS TO OUR NE...BUT WDSPRD PCPN THEN
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE CWFA MONDAY NIGHT
AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS INTO FAR SWRN SD BY TUE MRNG. CANNOT RULE OUT
A STRONG TO SVR TSTM ACROSS FAR SRN SD MON AFTN ALONG AND HEAD OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY WHERE SOME MODEST CAPE/SHEAR WILL EXIST.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY WITH WRAP-AROUND
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW. HOWEVER... A
DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL SD. THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER THE SD/WY BORDER. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY
EXIT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS
INTO FAR SRN CANADA BY 12Z WED. IT APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS COULD SEE
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN BY TUESDAY EVNG...WITH SOME AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 3 INCHES IN AND AROUND THE BLKHLS. CYCLONIC/NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PERSIST WED THRU FRI...WITH SEVERAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS
QUICKLY TRAVERSING THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THU. COOLER TEMPS PUSHING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH SHSN POSSIBLE IN THE BLKHLS FRI MRNG. MODELS KEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND...AND HAVE BACKED OFF
FROM THE SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TONIGHT...WITH IFR
CIGS BECOMING WIDESPREAD. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO MONDAY MORNING...ESP AT KRAP WHERE MOIST
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE SOME MONDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL
WAVE...ESP OVER NE WY WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED. IFR/LIFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY AT
KRAP AND THE EASTERN BLACK HILLS GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW. ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN DAKOTA. THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN
WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
ON MONDAY...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM SYSTEM...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES IN AND AROUND THE
BLACK HILLS. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR
THREAT...CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...BUNKERS
AVIATION...JC
HYDROLOGY...JOHNSON








000
FXUS63 KUNR 290501
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1101 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS COMPLEX UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW. AT THE
SURFACE...DEEPENING LOW IS OVER ERN CO WITH TROF EXTENDING NEWD
THROUGH SCNTRL SD. WDSPRD LOW STRATUS COVERS MUCH OF THE CWFA
EARLY THIS AFTN WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN NERN WY
TO THE LOWER 80S IN SCNTRL SD.

TONIGHT...LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND SPREAD
WDSPRD SHRA/ISOLD TSRA TO NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD...WITH BEST
CHANCES ARRIVING AFT MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY NEWD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES BY
LATE AFTN. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE PCPN AT TIMES DURING AS
THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TRACKS TO OUR NE...BUT WDSPRD PCPN THEN
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE CWFA MONDAY NIGHT
AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS INTO FAR SWRN SD BY TUE MRNG. CANNOT RULE OUT
A STRONG TO SVR TSTM ACROSS FAR SRN SD MON AFTN ALONG AND HEAD OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY WHERE SOME MODEST CAPE/SHEAR WILL EXIST.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY WITH WRAP-AROUND
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW. HOWEVER... A
DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL SD. THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER THE SD/WY BORDER. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY
EXIT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS
INTO FAR SRN CANADA BY 12Z WED. IT APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS COULD SEE
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN BY TUESDAY EVNG...WITH SOME AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 3 INCHES IN AND AROUND THE BLKHLS. CYCLONIC/NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PERSIST WED THRU FRI...WITH SEVERAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS
QUICKLY TRAVERSING THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THU. COOLER TEMPS PUSHING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH SHSN POSSIBLE IN THE BLKHLS FRI MRNG. MODELS KEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND...AND HAVE BACKED OFF
FROM THE SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TONIGHT...WITH IFR
CIGS BECOMING WIDESPREAD. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO MONDAY MORNING...ESP AT KRAP WHERE MOIST
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE SOME MONDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL
WAVE...ESP OVER NE WY WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED. IFR/LIFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY AT
KRAP AND THE EASTERN BLACK HILLS GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW. ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN DAKOTA. THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN
WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
ON MONDAY...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM SYSTEM...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES IN AND AROUND THE
BLACK HILLS. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR
THREAT...CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...BUNKERS
AVIATION...JC
HYDROLOGY...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 282324
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
524 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS COMPLEX UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW. AT THE
SURFACE...DEEPENING LOW IS OVER ERN CO WITH TROF EXTENDING NEWD
THROUGH SCNTRL SD. WDSPRD LOW STRATUS COVERS MUCH OF THE CWFA
EARLY THIS AFTN WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN NERN WY
TO THE LOWER 80S IN SCNTRL SD.

TONIGHT...LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND SPREAD
WDSPRD SHRA/ISOLD TSRA TO NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD...WITH BEST
CHANCES ARRIVING AFT MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY NEWD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES BY
LATE AFTN. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE PCPN AT TIMES DURING AS
THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TRACKS TO OUR NE...BUT WDSPRD PCPN THEN
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE CWFA MONDAY NIGHT
AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS INTO FAR SWRN SD BY TUE MRNG. CANNOT RULE OUT
A STRONG TO SVR TSTM ACROSS FAR SRN SD MON AFTN ALONG AND HEAD OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY WHERE SOME MODEST CAPE/SHEAR WILL EXIST.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY WITH WRAP-AROUND
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW. HOWEVER... A
DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL SD. THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER THE SD/WY BORDER. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY
EXIT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS
INTO FAR SRN CANADA BY 12Z WED. IT APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS COULD SEE
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN BY TUESDAY EVNG...WITH SOME AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 3 INCHES IN AND AROUND THE BLKHLS. CYCLONIC/NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PERSIST WED THRU FRI...WITH SEVERAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS
QUICKLY TRAVERSING THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THU. COOLER TEMPS PUSHING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH SHSN POSSIBLE IN THE BLKHLS FRI MRNG. MODELS KEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND...AND HAVE BACKED OFF
FROM THE SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TONIGHT...WITH IFR
CIGS BECOMING WIDESPREAD. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER
NERN WY THRU FAR WRN SD...AND SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.
LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO
MONDAY MORNING...ESP AT KRAP WHERE MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME MONDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE...ESP OVER NE WY WHERE
SW FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED. IFR/LIFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF MONDAY AT KRAP AND THE EASTERN BLACK HILLS GIVEN
CONTINUED MOIST EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN DAKOTA. THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN
WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
ON MONDAY...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM SYSTEM...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES IN AND AROUND THE
BLACK HILLS. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR
THREAT...CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...BUNKERS
AVIATION...JC
HYDROLOGY...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 282324
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
524 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS COMPLEX UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW. AT THE
SURFACE...DEEPENING LOW IS OVER ERN CO WITH TROF EXTENDING NEWD
THROUGH SCNTRL SD. WDSPRD LOW STRATUS COVERS MUCH OF THE CWFA
EARLY THIS AFTN WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN NERN WY
TO THE LOWER 80S IN SCNTRL SD.

TONIGHT...LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND SPREAD
WDSPRD SHRA/ISOLD TSRA TO NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD...WITH BEST
CHANCES ARRIVING AFT MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY NEWD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES BY
LATE AFTN. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE PCPN AT TIMES DURING AS
THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TRACKS TO OUR NE...BUT WDSPRD PCPN THEN
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE CWFA MONDAY NIGHT
AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS INTO FAR SWRN SD BY TUE MRNG. CANNOT RULE OUT
A STRONG TO SVR TSTM ACROSS FAR SRN SD MON AFTN ALONG AND HEAD OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY WHERE SOME MODEST CAPE/SHEAR WILL EXIST.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY WITH WRAP-AROUND
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW. HOWEVER... A
DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL SD. THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER THE SD/WY BORDER. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY
EXIT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS
INTO FAR SRN CANADA BY 12Z WED. IT APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS COULD SEE
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN BY TUESDAY EVNG...WITH SOME AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 3 INCHES IN AND AROUND THE BLKHLS. CYCLONIC/NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PERSIST WED THRU FRI...WITH SEVERAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS
QUICKLY TRAVERSING THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THU. COOLER TEMPS PUSHING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH SHSN POSSIBLE IN THE BLKHLS FRI MRNG. MODELS KEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND...AND HAVE BACKED OFF
FROM THE SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TONIGHT...WITH IFR
CIGS BECOMING WIDESPREAD. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER
NERN WY THRU FAR WRN SD...AND SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.
LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO
MONDAY MORNING...ESP AT KRAP WHERE MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME MONDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE...ESP OVER NE WY WHERE
SW FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED. IFR/LIFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF MONDAY AT KRAP AND THE EASTERN BLACK HILLS GIVEN
CONTINUED MOIST EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN DAKOTA. THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN
WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
ON MONDAY...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM SYSTEM...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES IN AND AROUND THE
BLACK HILLS. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR
THREAT...CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...BUNKERS
AVIATION...JC
HYDROLOGY...JOHNSON








000
FXUS63 KUNR 282023
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
223 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS COMPLEX UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW. AT THE
SURFACE...DEEPENING LOW IS OVER ERN CO WITH TROF EXTENDING NEWD
THROUGH SCNTRL SD. WDSPRD LOW STRATUS COVERS MUCH OF THE CWFA
EARLY THIS AFTN WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN NERN WY
TO THE LOWER 80S IN SCNTRL SD.

TONIGHT...LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND SPREAD
WDSPRD SHRA/ISOLD TSRA TO NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD...WITH BEST
CHANCES ARRIVING AFT MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY NEWD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES BY
LATE AFTN. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE PCPN AT TIMES DURING AS
THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TRACKS TO OUR NE...BUT WDSPRD PCPN THEN
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE CWFA MONDAY NIGHT
AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS INTO FAR SWRN SD BY TUE MRNG. CANNOT RULE OUT
A STRONG TO SVR TSTM ACROSS FAR SRN SD MON AFTN ALONG AND HEAD OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY WHERE SOME MODEST CAPE/SHEAR WILL EXIST.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY WITH WRAP-AROUND
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW. HOWEVER... A
DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL SD. THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER THE SD/WY BORDER. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY
EXIT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS
INTO FAR SRN CANADA BY 12Z WED. IT APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS COULD SEE
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN BY TUESDAY EVNG...WITH SOME AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 3 INCHES IN AND AROUND THE BLKHLS. CYCLONIC/NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PERSIST WED THRU FRI...WITH SEVERAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS
QUICKLY TRAVERSING THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THU. COOLER TEMPS PUSHING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH SHSN POSSIBLE IN THE BLKHLS FRI MRNG. MODELS KEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND...AND HAVE BACKED OFF
FROM THE SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH STRATUS AND SOME FOG/DRIZZLE COVER
MUCH OF NERN AND WRN SD. THESE CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTN AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE TONIGHT...WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING WIDESPREAD.
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP LATE TODAY OVER NERN WY THRU FAR WRN SD...AND
SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN DAKOTA. THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN
WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
ON MONDAY...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM SYSTEM...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES IN AND AROUND THE
BLACK HILLS. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR
THREAT...CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...BUNKERS
AVIATION...BUNKERS
HYDROLOGY...JOHNSON








000
FXUS63 KUNR 282023
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
223 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS COMPLEX UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW. AT THE
SURFACE...DEEPENING LOW IS OVER ERN CO WITH TROF EXTENDING NEWD
THROUGH SCNTRL SD. WDSPRD LOW STRATUS COVERS MUCH OF THE CWFA
EARLY THIS AFTN WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN NERN WY
TO THE LOWER 80S IN SCNTRL SD.

TONIGHT...LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND SPREAD
WDSPRD SHRA/ISOLD TSRA TO NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD...WITH BEST
CHANCES ARRIVING AFT MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY NEWD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES BY
LATE AFTN. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE PCPN AT TIMES DURING AS
THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TRACKS TO OUR NE...BUT WDSPRD PCPN THEN
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE CWFA MONDAY NIGHT
AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS INTO FAR SWRN SD BY TUE MRNG. CANNOT RULE OUT
A STRONG TO SVR TSTM ACROSS FAR SRN SD MON AFTN ALONG AND HEAD OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY WHERE SOME MODEST CAPE/SHEAR WILL EXIST.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY WITH WRAP-AROUND
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW. HOWEVER... A
DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL SD. THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER THE SD/WY BORDER. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY
EXIT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS
INTO FAR SRN CANADA BY 12Z WED. IT APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS COULD SEE
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN BY TUESDAY EVNG...WITH SOME AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 3 INCHES IN AND AROUND THE BLKHLS. CYCLONIC/NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PERSIST WED THRU FRI...WITH SEVERAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS
QUICKLY TRAVERSING THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THU. COOLER TEMPS PUSHING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH SHSN POSSIBLE IN THE BLKHLS FRI MRNG. MODELS KEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND...AND HAVE BACKED OFF
FROM THE SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH STRATUS AND SOME FOG/DRIZZLE COVER
MUCH OF NERN AND WRN SD. THESE CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTN AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE TONIGHT...WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING WIDESPREAD.
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP LATE TODAY OVER NERN WY THRU FAR WRN SD...AND
SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN DAKOTA. THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN
WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
ON MONDAY...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM SYSTEM...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES IN AND AROUND THE
BLACK HILLS. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR
THREAT...CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...BUNKERS
AVIATION...BUNKERS
HYDROLOGY...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 281727
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1127 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LOW STRATUS HAS INVADED MUCH OF THE CWFA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SCNTRL SD AND THE SRN BLKHLS/NEWCASTLE AREA. GIVEN THE RATHER
STRONG LOW LVL NLY FLOW...VEERING NELY TODAY...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
STRATUS DISSIPATION SO HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS QUITE A BIT FOR ALL
BUT SCNTRL SD AND THE SRN BLKHLS/NEWCASTLE AREA. HAVE ALSO ADDED
DRIZZLE TO THE FCST FOR THIS MRNG FOR MUCH OF NERN WY AND NWRN SD
GIVEN CURRENT OBS.

THE OTHER BIG CHANGE WAS TO REDUCE POPS FOR THIS AFTN WITH MOST OF
THE PCPN EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHWEST MN TO KIEN TO CENTRAL CO. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND
BOUNDARY BRINGING MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE CWA ALONG WITH
SOME ST GIVEN SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY/UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO
INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. ST WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SURGE
SOUTHWARD WRAPPING AROUND THE BLACK HILLS TO THE NE BORDER. HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD 5-10F FOR THESE AREAS BEHIND COOL
FRONT. UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NV PER WATER VAPOR WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY SOME WITH FORCING AHEAD OF SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING
INTO EASTERN WY/FAR WESTERN SD. RESULT WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT/MONDAY...UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SPINNING
OVER WESTERN SD BY 12Z TUESDAY AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED.
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF LOW EVIDENCED BY
WELL-DEFINED 850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION. MODERATE/STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF LOW WITH NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED
BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS CENTERED OVER THE CWA. SCENARIO PORTENDS
SOAKING RAINS OVER THE CWA...CENTERED ON/NEAR THE BLACK HILLS.
POPS/QPF REFLECT WET THINKING. AS SURFACE LOW RIDES UP COOL FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...A NARROW BAND OF 500-1000J/KG SBCAPE
DEVELOPS WITH SUFFICIENT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPERATURES WILL
SHOW A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY WITH WRAP-AROUND PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW. THIS PRECIP WILL
SLOWLY EXIT THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO ND.
IT APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS COULD SEE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN BY
TUESDAY EVNG. COOLER TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. CYCLONIC FLOW
REMAINING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SHSN POSSIBLE IN THE BLKHLS BOTH THU
AND FRI MORNINGS. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE WRN CONUS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SUGGESTING DRIER WEATHER
AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH STRATUS AND SOME FOG/DRIZZLE COVER MUCH OF
NERN AND WRN SD. THESE CIGS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND EXPAND IN
COVERAGE TONIGHT...WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING WIDESPREAD. PRECIP WILL
DEVELOP LATE TODAY OVER NERN WY THRU FAR WRN SD...AND SPREAD EWD
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...BUNKERS






000
FXUS63 KUNR 281542
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
942 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LOW STRATUS HAS INVADED MUCH OF THE CWFA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SCNTRL SD AND THE SRN BLKHLS/NEWCASTLE AREA. GIVEN THE RATHER
STRONG LOW LVL NLY FLOW...VEERING NELY TODAY...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
STRATUS DISSIPATION SO HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS QUITE A BIT FOR ALL
BUT SCNTRL SD AND THE SRN BLKHLS/NEWCASTLE AREA. HAVE ALSO ADDED
DRIZZLE TO THE FCST FOR THIS MRNG FOR MUCH OF NERN WY AND NWRN SD
GIVEN CURRENT OBS.

THE OTHER BIG CHANGE WAS TO REDUCE POPS FOR THIS AFTN WITH MOST OF
THE PCPN EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHWEST MN TO KIEN TO CENTRAL CO. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND
BOUNDARY BRINGING MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE CWA ALONG WITH
SOME ST GIVEN SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY/UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO
INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. ST WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SURGE
SOUTHWARD WRAPPING AROUND THE BLACK HILLS TO THE NE BORDER. HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD 5-10F FOR THESE AREAS BEHIND COOL
FRONT. UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NV PER WATER VAPOR WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY SOME WITH FORCING AHEAD OF SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING
INTO EASTERN WY/FAR WESTERN SD. RESULT WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT/MONDAY...UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SPINNING
OVER WESTERN SD BY 12Z TUESDAY AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED.
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF LOW EVIDENCED BY
WELL-DEFINED 850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION. MODERATE/STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF LOW WITH NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED
BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS CENTERED OVER THE CWA. SCENARIO PORTENDS
SOAKING RAINS OVER THE CWA...CENTERED ON/NEAR THE BLACK HILLS.
POPS/QPF REFLECT WET THINKING. AS SURFACE LOW RIDES UP COOL FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...A NARROW BAND OF 500-1000J/KG SBCAPE
DEVELOPS WITH SUFFICIENT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPERATURES WILL
SHOW A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY WITH WRAP-AROUND PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW. THIS PRECIP WILL
SLOWLY EXIT THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO ND.
IT APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS COULD SEE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN BY
TUESDAY EVNG. COOLER TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. CYCLONIC FLOW
REMAINING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SHSN POSSIBLE IN THE BLKHLS BOTH THU
AND FRI MORNINGS. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE WRN CONUS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SUGGESTING DRIER WEATHER
AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MVFR/IFR CIGS COVER MUCH OF NERN AND WRN SD. THESE CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP LATE TODAY OVER
NE WY THRU FAR WRN SD...AND SPREAD EWD THRU TONIGHT. WDSPRD IFR
CIGS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KUNR 281542
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
942 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LOW STRATUS HAS INVADED MUCH OF THE CWFA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SCNTRL SD AND THE SRN BLKHLS/NEWCASTLE AREA. GIVEN THE RATHER
STRONG LOW LVL NLY FLOW...VEERING NELY TODAY...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
STRATUS DISSIPATION SO HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS QUITE A BIT FOR ALL
BUT SCNTRL SD AND THE SRN BLKHLS/NEWCASTLE AREA. HAVE ALSO ADDED
DRIZZLE TO THE FCST FOR THIS MRNG FOR MUCH OF NERN WY AND NWRN SD
GIVEN CURRENT OBS.

THE OTHER BIG CHANGE WAS TO REDUCE POPS FOR THIS AFTN WITH MOST OF
THE PCPN EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHWEST MN TO KIEN TO CENTRAL CO. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND
BOUNDARY BRINGING MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE CWA ALONG WITH
SOME ST GIVEN SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY/UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO
INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. ST WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SURGE
SOUTHWARD WRAPPING AROUND THE BLACK HILLS TO THE NE BORDER. HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD 5-10F FOR THESE AREAS BEHIND COOL
FRONT. UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NV PER WATER VAPOR WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY SOME WITH FORCING AHEAD OF SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING
INTO EASTERN WY/FAR WESTERN SD. RESULT WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT/MONDAY...UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SPINNING
OVER WESTERN SD BY 12Z TUESDAY AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED.
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF LOW EVIDENCED BY
WELL-DEFINED 850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION. MODERATE/STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF LOW WITH NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED
BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS CENTERED OVER THE CWA. SCENARIO PORTENDS
SOAKING RAINS OVER THE CWA...CENTERED ON/NEAR THE BLACK HILLS.
POPS/QPF REFLECT WET THINKING. AS SURFACE LOW RIDES UP COOL FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...A NARROW BAND OF 500-1000J/KG SBCAPE
DEVELOPS WITH SUFFICIENT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPERATURES WILL
SHOW A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY WITH WRAP-AROUND PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW. THIS PRECIP WILL
SLOWLY EXIT THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO ND.
IT APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS COULD SEE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN BY
TUESDAY EVNG. COOLER TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. CYCLONIC FLOW
REMAINING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SHSN POSSIBLE IN THE BLKHLS BOTH THU
AND FRI MORNINGS. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE WRN CONUS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SUGGESTING DRIER WEATHER
AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MVFR/IFR CIGS COVER MUCH OF NERN AND WRN SD. THESE CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP LATE TODAY OVER
NE WY THRU FAR WRN SD...AND SPREAD EWD THRU TONIGHT. WDSPRD IFR
CIGS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13








000
FXUS63 KUNR 281049
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
449 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHWEST MN TO KIEN TO CENTRAL CO. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND
BOUNDARY BRINGING MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE CWA ALONG WITH
SOME ST GIVEN SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY/UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO
INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. ST WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SURGE
SOUTHWARD WRAPPING AROUND THE BLACK HILLS TO THE NE BORDER. HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD 5-10F FOR THESE AREAS BEHIND COOL
FRONT. UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NV PER WATER VAPOUR WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY SOME WITH FORCING AHEAD OF SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING
INTO EASTERN WY/FAR WESTERN SD. RESULT WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT/MONDAY...UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SPINNING
OVER WESTERN SD BY 12Z TUESDAY AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED.
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF LOW EVIDENCED BY
WELL-DEFINED 850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION. MODERATE/STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF LOW WITH NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED
BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS CENTERED OVER THE CWA. SCENARIO PORTENDS
SOAKING RAINS OVER THE CWA...CENTERED ON/NEAR THE BLACK HILLS.
POPS/QPF REFLECT WET THINKING. AS SURFACE LOW RIDES UP COOL FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...A NARROW BAND OF 500-1000J/KG SBCAPE
DEVELOPS WITH SUFFICIENT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPERATURES WILL
SHOW A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY WITH WRAP-AROUND PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW. THIS PRECIP WILL
SLOWLY EXIT THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO ND.
IT APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS COULD SEE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN BY
TUESDAY EVNG. COOLER TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. CYCLONIC FLOW
REMAINING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SHSN POSSIBLE IN THE BLKHLS BOTH THU
AND FRI MORNINGS. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE WRN CONUS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SUGGESTING DRIER WEATHER
AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 449 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MVFR CIGS HAVE MADE IT INTO PORTIONS OF NE WY TO NW
SD/NRN BLKHLS. THESE CIGS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY OVER NE WY THRU FAR WRN SD...AND SPREAD
EWD THRU TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13








000
FXUS63 KUNR 281049
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
449 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHWEST MN TO KIEN TO CENTRAL CO. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND
BOUNDARY BRINGING MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE CWA ALONG WITH
SOME ST GIVEN SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY/UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO
INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. ST WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SURGE
SOUTHWARD WRAPPING AROUND THE BLACK HILLS TO THE NE BORDER. HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD 5-10F FOR THESE AREAS BEHIND COOL
FRONT. UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NV PER WATER VAPOUR WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY SOME WITH FORCING AHEAD OF SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING
INTO EASTERN WY/FAR WESTERN SD. RESULT WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT/MONDAY...UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SPINNING
OVER WESTERN SD BY 12Z TUESDAY AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED.
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF LOW EVIDENCED BY
WELL-DEFINED 850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION. MODERATE/STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF LOW WITH NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED
BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS CENTERED OVER THE CWA. SCENARIO PORTENDS
SOAKING RAINS OVER THE CWA...CENTERED ON/NEAR THE BLACK HILLS.
POPS/QPF REFLECT WET THINKING. AS SURFACE LOW RIDES UP COOL FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...A NARROW BAND OF 500-1000J/KG SBCAPE
DEVELOPS WITH SUFFICIENT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPERATURES WILL
SHOW A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY WITH WRAP-AROUND PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW. THIS PRECIP WILL
SLOWLY EXIT THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO ND.
IT APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS COULD SEE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN BY
TUESDAY EVNG. COOLER TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. CYCLONIC FLOW
REMAINING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SHSN POSSIBLE IN THE BLKHLS BOTH THU
AND FRI MORNINGS. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE WRN CONUS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SUGGESTING DRIER WEATHER
AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 449 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MVFR CIGS HAVE MADE IT INTO PORTIONS OF NE WY TO NW
SD/NRN BLKHLS. THESE CIGS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY OVER NE WY THRU FAR WRN SD...AND SPREAD
EWD THRU TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13









000
FXUS63 KUNR 280857
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
257 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHWEST MN TO KIEN TO CENTRAL CO. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND
BOUNDARY BRINGING MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE CWA ALONG WITH
SOME ST GIVEN SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY/UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO
INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. ST WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SURGE
SOUTHWARD WRAPPING AROUND THE BLACK HILLS TO THE NE BORDER. HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD 5-10F FOR THESE AREAS BEHIND COOL
FRONT. UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NV PER WATER VAPOUR WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY SOME WITH FORCING AHEAD OF SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING
INTO EASTERN WY/FAR WESTERN SD. RESULT WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT/MONDAY...UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SPINNING
OVER WESTERN SD BY 12Z TUESDAY AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED.
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF LOW EVIDENCED BY
WELL-DEFINED 850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION. MODERATE/STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF LOW WITH NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED
BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS CENTERED OVER THE CWA. SCENARIO PORTENDS
SOAKING RAINS OVER THE CWA...CENTERED ON/NEAR THE BLACK HILLS.
POPS/QPF REFLECT WET THINKING. AS SURFACE LOW RIDES UP COOL FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...A NARROW BAND OF 500-1000J/KG SBCAPE
DEVELOPS WITH SUFFICIENT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPERATURES WILL
SHOW A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY WITH WRAP-AROUND PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW. THIS PRECIP WILL
SLOWLY EXIT THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO ND.
IT APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS COULD SEE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN BY
TUESDAY EVNG. COOLER TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. CYCLONIC FLOW
REMAINING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SHSN POSSIBLE IN THE BLKHLS BOTH THU
AND FRI MORNINGS. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE WRN CONUS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SUGGESTING DRIER WEATHER
AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MVFR CIGS HAVE MADE IT INTO PORTIONS OF NE WY TO NW SD/NRN
BLKHLS. THESE CIGS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. PRECIP WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY OVER NE WY THRU FAR WRN SD...AND SPREAD
EWD THRU TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS63 KUNR 280857
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
257 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHWEST MN TO KIEN TO CENTRAL CO. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND
BOUNDARY BRINGING MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE CWA ALONG WITH
SOME ST GIVEN SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY/UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO
INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. ST WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SURGE
SOUTHWARD WRAPPING AROUND THE BLACK HILLS TO THE NE BORDER. HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD 5-10F FOR THESE AREAS BEHIND COOL
FRONT. UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NV PER WATER VAPOUR WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY SOME WITH FORCING AHEAD OF SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING
INTO EASTERN WY/FAR WESTERN SD. RESULT WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT/MONDAY...UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SPINNING
OVER WESTERN SD BY 12Z TUESDAY AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED.
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF LOW EVIDENCED BY
WELL-DEFINED 850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION. MODERATE/STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF LOW WITH NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED
BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS CENTERED OVER THE CWA. SCENARIO PORTENDS
SOAKING RAINS OVER THE CWA...CENTERED ON/NEAR THE BLACK HILLS.
POPS/QPF REFLECT WET THINKING. AS SURFACE LOW RIDES UP COOL FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...A NARROW BAND OF 500-1000J/KG SBCAPE
DEVELOPS WITH SUFFICIENT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPERATURES WILL
SHOW A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY WITH WRAP-AROUND PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW. THIS PRECIP WILL
SLOWLY EXIT THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO ND.
IT APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS COULD SEE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN BY
TUESDAY EVNG. COOLER TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. CYCLONIC FLOW
REMAINING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SHSN POSSIBLE IN THE BLKHLS BOTH THU
AND FRI MORNINGS. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE WRN CONUS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SUGGESTING DRIER WEATHER
AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MVFR CIGS HAVE MADE IT INTO PORTIONS OF NE WY TO NW SD/NRN
BLKHLS. THESE CIGS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. PRECIP WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY OVER NE WY THRU FAR WRN SD...AND SPREAD
EWD THRU TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13





000
FXUS63 KUNR 280516
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1116 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE HANGING ON OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...ALTHOUGH IT IS WEAKENING WITH LARGE TROF OVER THE WRN
CONUS MOVING SLOWLY EWD. AT THE SFC...FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS
FROM NERN ND THROUGH SWRN SD/NEB PANHANDLE. WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS
EARLY THIS AFTN...WITH NEAR 70 IN NERN WY TO THE UPPER 80S IN
SCNTRL SD AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY.

TONIGHT...SFC BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SEWD WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE AS UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SRN CA WORKS
INTO NV. SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER WRN/CNTRL WY MAY CLIP OUR FAR
WRN ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK AND WILL HOLD ON TO 20 POPS THAT AREA.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL WORK SLOWLY THROUGH NV AND WHILE SFC LOW
DEEPENS OVER ERN CO. AMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN ACRS THE CWFA AS
PLUME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM JUST
WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS NWD THOUGH THE NRN ROCKIES...SHIFTS EWD.
E/NE BL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWFA WILL MOISTEN THE LOWER
LEVELS. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACRS NERN WY AND NWRN
SD...AND WILL MAKE HIGH TEMPS TRICKY DEPENDING ON FAR S/E THEY
SPREAD. BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LEAD SHORT WAVE EJECT THROUGH ERN WY/FAR WRN SD
OVERNIGHT WITH WITH SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS SPREADING NWD INTO NERN WY
AND THE BLKHLS...WITH TAPERING POPS AS YOU HEAD EAST OF THE
BLKHLS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE GIVEN PRECIPITABLE
WATERS INCREASING TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE MAIN
FLOW MONDAY AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
EXTENSIVE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FEED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WHEN STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ARE PROGGED. STILL IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SEVERE
STORMS OVER SCNTRL SD WHERE 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 35-45 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ON MON. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU
TUESDAY WITH WRAP-AROUND PRECIP SLOWLY EXITING THE AREA INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS COULD SEE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN BY
TUESDAY EVNG. COOLER TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. CYCLONIC FLOW
REMAINING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SHSN POSSIBLE IN THE BLKHLS BOTH THU AND
FRI MRNGS. AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RIDGE BUILDING FOR
SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD BRING BACK DRIER WEATHER AND NEAR-AVERAGE
TEMPS. HOWEVER...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO AT THIS TIME
GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD AND TENDENCY TOWARD RETROGRESSION OF THE
RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY SE HALF.
HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NWRN AREAS
EARLY SUN MORNING AS MOIST LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW FAVORS THE
FORMATION OF A LOW STRATUS DECK. KRAP WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
STRATUS AND HAVE RETAINED A HINT OF THIS WITH SCT 2.5 KFT. MVFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY NW HALF...WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS SPREADING SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SHRA WILL ALSO MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS
SUNDAY EVENING...WITH VIS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CELLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...BUNKERS
AVIATION...JC








000
FXUS63 KUNR 280516
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1116 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE HANGING ON OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...ALTHOUGH IT IS WEAKENING WITH LARGE TROF OVER THE WRN
CONUS MOVING SLOWLY EWD. AT THE SFC...FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS
FROM NERN ND THROUGH SWRN SD/NEB PANHANDLE. WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS
EARLY THIS AFTN...WITH NEAR 70 IN NERN WY TO THE UPPER 80S IN
SCNTRL SD AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY.

TONIGHT...SFC BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SEWD WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE AS UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SRN CA WORKS
INTO NV. SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER WRN/CNTRL WY MAY CLIP OUR FAR
WRN ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK AND WILL HOLD ON TO 20 POPS THAT AREA.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL WORK SLOWLY THROUGH NV AND WHILE SFC LOW
DEEPENS OVER ERN CO. AMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN ACRS THE CWFA AS
PLUME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM JUST
WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS NWD THOUGH THE NRN ROCKIES...SHIFTS EWD.
E/NE BL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWFA WILL MOISTEN THE LOWER
LEVELS. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACRS NERN WY AND NWRN
SD...AND WILL MAKE HIGH TEMPS TRICKY DEPENDING ON FAR S/E THEY
SPREAD. BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LEAD SHORT WAVE EJECT THROUGH ERN WY/FAR WRN SD
OVERNIGHT WITH WITH SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS SPREADING NWD INTO NERN WY
AND THE BLKHLS...WITH TAPERING POPS AS YOU HEAD EAST OF THE
BLKHLS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE GIVEN PRECIPITABLE
WATERS INCREASING TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE MAIN
FLOW MONDAY AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
EXTENSIVE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FEED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WHEN STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ARE PROGGED. STILL IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SEVERE
STORMS OVER SCNTRL SD WHERE 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 35-45 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ON MON. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU
TUESDAY WITH WRAP-AROUND PRECIP SLOWLY EXITING THE AREA INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS COULD SEE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN BY
TUESDAY EVNG. COOLER TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. CYCLONIC FLOW
REMAINING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SHSN POSSIBLE IN THE BLKHLS BOTH THU AND
FRI MRNGS. AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RIDGE BUILDING FOR
SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD BRING BACK DRIER WEATHER AND NEAR-AVERAGE
TEMPS. HOWEVER...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO AT THIS TIME
GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD AND TENDENCY TOWARD RETROGRESSION OF THE
RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY SE HALF.
HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NWRN AREAS
EARLY SUN MORNING AS MOIST LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW FAVORS THE
FORMATION OF A LOW STRATUS DECK. KRAP WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
STRATUS AND HAVE RETAINED A HINT OF THIS WITH SCT 2.5 KFT. MVFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY NW HALF...WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS SPREADING SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SHRA WILL ALSO MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS
SUNDAY EVENING...WITH VIS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CELLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...BUNKERS
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 272315
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
515 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE HANGING ON OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...ALTHOUGH IT IS WEAKENING WITH LARGE TROF OVER THE WRN
CONUS MOVING SLOWLY EWD. AT THE SFC...FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS
FROM NERN ND THROUGH SWRN SD/NEB PANHANDLE. WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS
EARLY THIS AFTN...WITH NEAR 70 IN NERN WY TO THE UPPER 80S IN
SCNTRL SD AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY.

TONIGHT...SFC BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SEWD WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE AS UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SRN CA WORKS
INTO NV. SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER WRN/CNTRL WY MAY CLIP OUR FAR
WRN ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK AND WILL HOLD ON TO 20 POPS THAT AREA.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL WORK SLOWLY THROUGH NV AND WHILE SFC LOW
DEEPENS OVER ERN CO. AMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN ACRS THE CWFA AS
PLUME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM JUST
WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS NWD THOUGH THE NRN ROCKIES...SHIFTS EWD.
E/NE BL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWFA WILL MOISTEN THE LOWER
LEVELS. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACRS NERN WY AND NWRN
SD...AND WILL MAKE HIGH TEMPS TRICKY DEPENDING ON FAR S/E THEY
SPREAD. BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LEAD SHORT WAVE EJECT THROUGH ERN WY/FAR WRN SD
OVERNIGHT WITH WITH SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS SPREADING NWD INTO NERN WY
AND THE BLKHLS...WITH TAPERING POPS AS YOU HEAD EAST OF THE
BLKHLS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE GIVEN PRECIPITABLE
WATERS INCREASING TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE MAIN
FLOW MONDAY AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
EXTENSIVE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FEED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WHEN STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ARE PROGGED. STILL IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SEVERE
STORMS OVER SCNTRL SD WHERE 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 35-45 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ON MON. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU
TUESDAY WITH WRAP-AROUND PRECIP SLOWLY EXITING THE AREA INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS COULD SEE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN BY
TUESDAY EVNG. COOLER TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. CYCLONIC FLOW
REMAINING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SHSN POSSIBLE IN THE BLKHLS BOTH THU AND
FRI MRNGS. AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RIDGE BUILDING FOR
SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD BRING BACK DRIER WEATHER AND NEAR-AVERAGE
TEMPS. HOWEVER...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO AT THIS TIME
GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD AND TENDENCY TOWARD RETROGRESSION OF THE
RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 503 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVNG...BUT THEN
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER FAR NWRN AREAS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS MOIST LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW FAVORS THE FORMATION OF
A LOW STRATUS DECK. BY 12Z SUNDAY SOME IFR CIGS SHOULD BE PRESENT
OVER FAR NWRN AREAS...WITH MVFR CIGS COVERING MOST OF NWRN
SD...THE NRN BLKHLS...AND MOST OF NERN WY AS A LARGE UPPER LOW
MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. KRAP WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF STRATUS AND
WILL RETAIN A HINT AT THIS WITH SCT 2.5 KFT. MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY NW HALF...WITH CIGS SPREADING
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...BUNKERS
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 272315
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
515 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE HANGING ON OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...ALTHOUGH IT IS WEAKENING WITH LARGE TROF OVER THE WRN
CONUS MOVING SLOWLY EWD. AT THE SFC...FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS
FROM NERN ND THROUGH SWRN SD/NEB PANHANDLE. WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS
EARLY THIS AFTN...WITH NEAR 70 IN NERN WY TO THE UPPER 80S IN
SCNTRL SD AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY.

TONIGHT...SFC BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SEWD WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE AS UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SRN CA WORKS
INTO NV. SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER WRN/CNTRL WY MAY CLIP OUR FAR
WRN ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK AND WILL HOLD ON TO 20 POPS THAT AREA.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL WORK SLOWLY THROUGH NV AND WHILE SFC LOW
DEEPENS OVER ERN CO. AMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN ACRS THE CWFA AS
PLUME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM JUST
WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS NWD THOUGH THE NRN ROCKIES...SHIFTS EWD.
E/NE BL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWFA WILL MOISTEN THE LOWER
LEVELS. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACRS NERN WY AND NWRN
SD...AND WILL MAKE HIGH TEMPS TRICKY DEPENDING ON FAR S/E THEY
SPREAD. BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LEAD SHORT WAVE EJECT THROUGH ERN WY/FAR WRN SD
OVERNIGHT WITH WITH SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS SPREADING NWD INTO NERN WY
AND THE BLKHLS...WITH TAPERING POPS AS YOU HEAD EAST OF THE
BLKHLS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE GIVEN PRECIPITABLE
WATERS INCREASING TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE MAIN
FLOW MONDAY AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
EXTENSIVE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FEED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WHEN STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ARE PROGGED. STILL IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SEVERE
STORMS OVER SCNTRL SD WHERE 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 35-45 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ON MON. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU
TUESDAY WITH WRAP-AROUND PRECIP SLOWLY EXITING THE AREA INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS COULD SEE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN BY
TUESDAY EVNG. COOLER TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. CYCLONIC FLOW
REMAINING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SHSN POSSIBLE IN THE BLKHLS BOTH THU AND
FRI MRNGS. AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RIDGE BUILDING FOR
SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD BRING BACK DRIER WEATHER AND NEAR-AVERAGE
TEMPS. HOWEVER...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO AT THIS TIME
GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD AND TENDENCY TOWARD RETROGRESSION OF THE
RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 503 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVNG...BUT THEN
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER FAR NWRN AREAS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS MOIST LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW FAVORS THE FORMATION OF
A LOW STRATUS DECK. BY 12Z SUNDAY SOME IFR CIGS SHOULD BE PRESENT
OVER FAR NWRN AREAS...WITH MVFR CIGS COVERING MOST OF NWRN
SD...THE NRN BLKHLS...AND MOST OF NERN WY AS A LARGE UPPER LOW
MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. KRAP WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF STRATUS AND
WILL RETAIN A HINT AT THIS WITH SCT 2.5 KFT. MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY NW HALF...WITH CIGS SPREADING
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...BUNKERS
AVIATION...JC








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