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000
FXUS63 KUNR 060909
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
209 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. INCREASE IN BL-850MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT HIGHS 5-10F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE CROSS NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY. MAIN RESULT WILL BE
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE
CLIPS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL THREAT
FOR -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
40S AND 50S ON SUNDAY...WITH 50S AND 60S LIKELY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE








000
FXUS63 KUNR 060909
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
209 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. INCREASE IN BL-850MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT HIGHS 5-10F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE CROSS NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY. MAIN RESULT WILL BE
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE
CLIPS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL THREAT
FOR -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
40S AND 50S ON SUNDAY...WITH 50S AND 60S LIKELY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE







000
FXUS63 KUNR 060514
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1014 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015


.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE RIDGE OVER THE FAR WRN CONUS...WITH DRY SHORT
WAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW CROSSING SD. AT THE SFC...TROF CONTINUES
TO CROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS WITH TEMPS WARMING WELL THROUGH THE 30S
INTO THE 40S ACRS THE CWFA.

UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE FAR WRN CONUS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY NW FLOW OVER OUR CWFA. TEMPS WILL WARM
EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS ABOUT 5C DEGREES OR SO
WARMER THAN TODAY. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS...ESPECIALLY FAR NWRN SD.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH 50S AND
60S LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST SD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS ND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1012 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10








000
FXUS63 KUNR 060514
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1014 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015


.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE RIDGE OVER THE FAR WRN CONUS...WITH DRY SHORT
WAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW CROSSING SD. AT THE SFC...TROF CONTINUES
TO CROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS WITH TEMPS WARMING WELL THROUGH THE 30S
INTO THE 40S ACRS THE CWFA.

UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE FAR WRN CONUS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY NW FLOW OVER OUR CWFA. TEMPS WILL WARM
EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS ABOUT 5C DEGREES OR SO
WARMER THAN TODAY. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS...ESPECIALLY FAR NWRN SD.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH 50S AND
60S LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST SD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS ND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1012 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 060514
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1014 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015


.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE RIDGE OVER THE FAR WRN CONUS...WITH DRY SHORT
WAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW CROSSING SD. AT THE SFC...TROF CONTINUES
TO CROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS WITH TEMPS WARMING WELL THROUGH THE 30S
INTO THE 40S ACRS THE CWFA.

UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE FAR WRN CONUS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY NW FLOW OVER OUR CWFA. TEMPS WILL WARM
EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS ABOUT 5C DEGREES OR SO
WARMER THAN TODAY. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS...ESPECIALLY FAR NWRN SD.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH 50S AND
60S LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST SD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS ND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1012 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10








000
FXUS63 KUNR 060514
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1014 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015


.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE RIDGE OVER THE FAR WRN CONUS...WITH DRY SHORT
WAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW CROSSING SD. AT THE SFC...TROF CONTINUES
TO CROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS WITH TEMPS WARMING WELL THROUGH THE 30S
INTO THE 40S ACRS THE CWFA.

UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE FAR WRN CONUS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY NW FLOW OVER OUR CWFA. TEMPS WILL WARM
EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS ABOUT 5C DEGREES OR SO
WARMER THAN TODAY. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS...ESPECIALLY FAR NWRN SD.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH 50S AND
60S LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST SD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS ND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1012 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 060256
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
756 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 755 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE RIDGE OVER THE FAR WRN CONUS...WITH DRY SHORT
WAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW CROSSING SD. AT THE SFC...TROF CONTINUES
TO CROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS WITH TEMPS WARMING WELL THROUGH THE 30S
INTO THE 40S ACRS THE CWFA.

UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE FAR WRN CONUS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY NW FLOW OVER OUR CWFA. TEMPS WILL WARM
EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS ABOUT 5C DEGREES OR SO
WARMER THAN TODAY. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS...ESPECIALLY FAR NWRN SD.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH 50S AND
60S LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST SD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS ND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10








000
FXUS63 KUNR 060256
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
756 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 755 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE RIDGE OVER THE FAR WRN CONUS...WITH DRY SHORT
WAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW CROSSING SD. AT THE SFC...TROF CONTINUES
TO CROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS WITH TEMPS WARMING WELL THROUGH THE 30S
INTO THE 40S ACRS THE CWFA.

UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE FAR WRN CONUS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY NW FLOW OVER OUR CWFA. TEMPS WILL WARM
EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS ABOUT 5C DEGREES OR SO
WARMER THAN TODAY. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS...ESPECIALLY FAR NWRN SD.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH 50S AND
60S LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST SD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS ND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10








000
FXUS63 KUNR 060256
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
756 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 755 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE RIDGE OVER THE FAR WRN CONUS...WITH DRY SHORT
WAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW CROSSING SD. AT THE SFC...TROF CONTINUES
TO CROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS WITH TEMPS WARMING WELL THROUGH THE 30S
INTO THE 40S ACRS THE CWFA.

UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE FAR WRN CONUS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY NW FLOW OVER OUR CWFA. TEMPS WILL WARM
EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS ABOUT 5C DEGREES OR SO
WARMER THAN TODAY. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS...ESPECIALLY FAR NWRN SD.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH 50S AND
60S LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST SD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS ND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 052131
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
231 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE RIDGE OVER THE FAR WRN CONUS...WITH DRY SHORT
WAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW CROSSING SD. AT THE SFC...TROF CONTINUES
TO CROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS WITH TEMPS WARMING WELL THROUGH THE 30S
INTO THE 40S ACRS THE CWFA.

UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE FAR WRN CONUS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY NW FLOW OVER OUR CWFA. TEMPS WILL WARM
EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS ABOUT 5C DEGREES OR SO
WARMER THAN TODAY. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS...ESPECIALLY FAR NWRN SD.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH 50S AND
60S LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST SD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS ND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS63 KUNR 052131
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
231 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE RIDGE OVER THE FAR WRN CONUS...WITH DRY SHORT
WAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW CROSSING SD. AT THE SFC...TROF CONTINUES
TO CROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS WITH TEMPS WARMING WELL THROUGH THE 30S
INTO THE 40S ACRS THE CWFA.

UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE FAR WRN CONUS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY NW FLOW OVER OUR CWFA. TEMPS WILL WARM
EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS ABOUT 5C DEGREES OR SO
WARMER THAN TODAY. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS...ESPECIALLY FAR NWRN SD.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH 50S AND
60S LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST SD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS ND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 051725
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1025 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES 1035MB HIGH ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA/IOWA...WITH LEE TROF/WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
MONTANA/WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...DROPPING INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THIS SHORTWAVE CROSSES
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. WITH WEAK LIFT/DRY LOW LEVELS...ONLY
EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION TODAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING ABOUT 10C.
LINGERING SNOW COVER ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOME...WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY AND WARMER FOR FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S LOOK POSSIBLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...13








000
FXUS63 KUNR 050928
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
228 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES 1035MB HIGH ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA/IOWA...WITH LEE TROF/WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
MONTANA/WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...DROPPING INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THIS SHORTWAVE CROSSES
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. WITH WEAK LIFT/DRY LOW LEVELS...ONLY
EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION TODAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING ABOUT 10C.
LINGERING SNOW COVER ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOME...WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY AND WARMER FOR FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S LOOK POSSIBLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15








000
FXUS63 KUNR 050928
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
228 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES 1035MB HIGH ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA/IOWA...WITH LEE TROF/WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
MONTANA/WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...DROPPING INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THIS SHORTWAVE CROSSES
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. WITH WEAK LIFT/DRY LOW LEVELS...ONLY
EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION TODAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING ABOUT 10C.
LINGERING SNOW COVER ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOME...WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY AND WARMER FOR FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S LOOK POSSIBLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15







000
FXUS63 KUNR 050513
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1013 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG 180KT JET AT 300MB OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
PLACES THE CWA IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION...PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NE WYOMING. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAVE HELPED TO INSTIGATE
SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS OVER WESTERN SD...AND WHILE THERE ARE WEAK
RADAR ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUMULUS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND DUE TO A WIDE T/TD SPREAD.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH
REMAINDER OF TODAY. STRONG HEIGHT RISES AND WAA WILL TAKE PLACE AS A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPERATURES MAY
STEADILY RISE OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD
DUE TO THE WSW FLOW AND STRONG WAA. IN FACT...700MB AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER TOMORROW THAN
TODAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS AND 20S FOR
THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE
DOES PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10








000
FXUS63 KUNR 050513
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1013 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG 180KT JET AT 300MB OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
PLACES THE CWA IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION...PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NE WYOMING. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAVE HELPED TO INSTIGATE
SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS OVER WESTERN SD...AND WHILE THERE ARE WEAK
RADAR ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUMULUS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND DUE TO A WIDE T/TD SPREAD.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH
REMAINDER OF TODAY. STRONG HEIGHT RISES AND WAA WILL TAKE PLACE AS A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPERATURES MAY
STEADILY RISE OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD
DUE TO THE WSW FLOW AND STRONG WAA. IN FACT...700MB AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER TOMORROW THAN
TODAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS AND 20S FOR
THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE
DOES PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 042335
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
435 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG 180KT JET AT 300MB OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
PLACES THE CWA IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION...PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NE WYOMING. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAVE HELPED TO INSTIGATE
SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS OVER WESTERN SD...AND WHILE THERE ARE WEAK
RADAR ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUMULUS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND DUE TO A WIDE T/TD SPREAD.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH
REMAINDER OF TODAY. STRONG HEIGHT RISES AND WAA WILL TAKE PLACE AS A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPERATURES MAY
STEADILY RISE OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD
DUE TO THE WSW FLOW AND STRONG WAA. IN FACT...700MB AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER TOMORROW THAN
TODAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS AND 20S FOR
THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE
DOES PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 433 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 042335
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
435 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG 180KT JET AT 300MB OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
PLACES THE CWA IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION...PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NE WYOMING. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAVE HELPED TO INSTIGATE
SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS OVER WESTERN SD...AND WHILE THERE ARE WEAK
RADAR ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUMULUS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND DUE TO A WIDE T/TD SPREAD.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH
REMAINDER OF TODAY. STRONG HEIGHT RISES AND WAA WILL TAKE PLACE AS A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPERATURES MAY
STEADILY RISE OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD
DUE TO THE WSW FLOW AND STRONG WAA. IN FACT...700MB AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER TOMORROW THAN
TODAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS AND 20S FOR
THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE
DOES PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 433 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10








000
FXUS63 KUNR 042335
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
435 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG 180KT JET AT 300MB OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
PLACES THE CWA IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION...PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NE WYOMING. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAVE HELPED TO INSTIGATE
SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS OVER WESTERN SD...AND WHILE THERE ARE WEAK
RADAR ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUMULUS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND DUE TO A WIDE T/TD SPREAD.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH
REMAINDER OF TODAY. STRONG HEIGHT RISES AND WAA WILL TAKE PLACE AS A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPERATURES MAY
STEADILY RISE OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD
DUE TO THE WSW FLOW AND STRONG WAA. IN FACT...700MB AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER TOMORROW THAN
TODAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS AND 20S FOR
THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE
DOES PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 433 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10








000
FXUS63 KUNR 042335
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
435 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG 180KT JET AT 300MB OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
PLACES THE CWA IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION...PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NE WYOMING. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAVE HELPED TO INSTIGATE
SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS OVER WESTERN SD...AND WHILE THERE ARE WEAK
RADAR ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUMULUS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND DUE TO A WIDE T/TD SPREAD.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH
REMAINDER OF TODAY. STRONG HEIGHT RISES AND WAA WILL TAKE PLACE AS A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPERATURES MAY
STEADILY RISE OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD
DUE TO THE WSW FLOW AND STRONG WAA. IN FACT...700MB AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER TOMORROW THAN
TODAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS AND 20S FOR
THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE
DOES PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 433 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 042102
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
202 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG 180KT JET AT 300MB OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
PLACES THE CWA IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION...PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NE WYOMING. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAVE HELPED TO INSTIGATE
SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS OVER WESTERN SD...AND WHILE THERE ARE WEAK
RADAR ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUMULUS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND DUE TO A WIDE T/TD SPREAD.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH
REMAINDER OF TODAY. STRONG HEIGHT RISES AND WAA WILL TAKE PLACE AS A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPERATURES MAY
STEADILY RISE OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD
DUE TO THE WSW FLOW AND STRONG WAA. IN FACT...700MB AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER TOMORROW THAN
TODAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS AND 20S FOR
THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015


MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE
DOES PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
AROUND 00Z.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS63 KUNR 042102
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
202 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG 180KT JET AT 300MB OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
PLACES THE CWA IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION...PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NE WYOMING. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAVE HELPED TO INSTIGATE
SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS OVER WESTERN SD...AND WHILE THERE ARE WEAK
RADAR ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUMULUS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND DUE TO A WIDE T/TD SPREAD.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH
REMAINDER OF TODAY. STRONG HEIGHT RISES AND WAA WILL TAKE PLACE AS A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPERATURES MAY
STEADILY RISE OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD
DUE TO THE WSW FLOW AND STRONG WAA. IN FACT...700MB AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER TOMORROW THAN
TODAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS AND 20S FOR
THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015


MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE
DOES PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
AROUND 00Z.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 041759
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1059 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

RADAR/SAT SHOWING LIGHT SHSN DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW TO
WCNTRL SD PLAINS...AND PERHAPS INTO THE NRN BEAR LODGE FOOTHILLS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE SHOWERS WILL END THROUGH THE
AFTN...SO HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO ADD MENTION OF
SCATTERED FLURRIES. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT
SE OVER THE REGION TODAY. COLD CONDS THIS MORNING AS ARCTIC AIR
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. DID TRIM BACK THE WIND CHILL ADV TO JUST NW SD
AS STRONGER WINDS HAVE NOT MATERIALIZE. A FEW FLURRIES MAY BE FOUND
IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND ACROSS FAR NW SD THIS MORNING PER
THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW HIGHER BASED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES PER STRONG INSOLATION. HOWEVER...VERY DRY BL
CONDS WILL LIMIT ANY PRECIP TO MAINLY VIRGA OR A FEW FLURRIES AT
BEST. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDS AND WARM NW UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE SHIFTS
BACK EAST. PROGRESSIVE NW FLOW WILL SUPPORT A SHORTWAVE ACROSS SK/MB
WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE SUPPORTING WAA OVER THE FA
TONIGHT THROUGH THUR. REFLECTED WSW FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMING TEMPS
LATE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR WEST...MAINLY IN FAVORED
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS. DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE AREA TO SEE
WARM CONDS THUR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S EXPECTED NEARLY ALL PLACES
OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FROM
FRIDAY...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BROAD
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE UPPER RIDGE DOES PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH
TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK
HILLS...AND NORTHWEST SD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS63 KUNR 041759
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1059 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

RADAR/SAT SHOWING LIGHT SHSN DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW TO
WCNTRL SD PLAINS...AND PERHAPS INTO THE NRN BEAR LODGE FOOTHILLS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE SHOWERS WILL END THROUGH THE
AFTN...SO HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO ADD MENTION OF
SCATTERED FLURRIES. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT
SE OVER THE REGION TODAY. COLD CONDS THIS MORNING AS ARCTIC AIR
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. DID TRIM BACK THE WIND CHILL ADV TO JUST NW SD
AS STRONGER WINDS HAVE NOT MATERIALIZE. A FEW FLURRIES MAY BE FOUND
IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND ACROSS FAR NW SD THIS MORNING PER
THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW HIGHER BASED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES PER STRONG INSOLATION. HOWEVER...VERY DRY BL
CONDS WILL LIMIT ANY PRECIP TO MAINLY VIRGA OR A FEW FLURRIES AT
BEST. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDS AND WARM NW UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE SHIFTS
BACK EAST. PROGRESSIVE NW FLOW WILL SUPPORT A SHORTWAVE ACROSS SK/MB
WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE SUPPORTING WAA OVER THE FA
TONIGHT THROUGH THUR. REFLECTED WSW FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMING TEMPS
LATE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR WEST...MAINLY IN FAVORED
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS. DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE AREA TO SEE
WARM CONDS THUR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S EXPECTED NEARLY ALL PLACES
OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FROM
FRIDAY...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BROAD
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE UPPER RIDGE DOES PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH
TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK
HILLS...AND NORTHWEST SD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS63 KUNR 041703
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1003 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

RADAR/SAT SHOWING LIGHT SHSN DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW TO
WCNTRL SD PLAINS...AND PERHAPS INTO THE NRN BEAR LODGE FOOTHILLS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE SHOWERS WILL END THROUGH THE
AFTN...SO HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO ADD MENTION OF
SCATTERED FLURRIES. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT
SE OVER THE REGION TODAY. COLD CONDS THIS MORNING AS ARCTIC AIR
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. DID TRIM BACK THE WIND CHILL ADV TO JUST NW SD
AS STRONGER WINDS HAVE NOT MATERIALIZE. A FEW FLURRIES MAY BE FOUND
IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND ACROSS FAR NW SD THIS MORNING PER
THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW HIGHER BASED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES PER STRONG INSOLATION. HOWEVER...VERY DRY BL
CONDS WILL LIMIT ANY PRECIP TO MAINLY VIRGA OR A FEW FLURRIES AT
BEST. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDS AND WARM NW UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE SHIFTS
BACK EAST. PROGRESSIVE NW FLOW WILL SUPPORT A SHORTWAVE ACROSS SK/MB
WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE SUPPORTING WAA OVER THE FA
TONIGHT THROUGH THUR. REFLECTED WSW FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMING TEMPS
LATE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR WEST...MAINLY IN FAVORED
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS. DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE AREA TO SEE
WARM CONDS THUR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S EXPECTED NEARLY ALL PLACES
OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FROM
FRIDAY...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BROAD
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE UPPER RIDGE DOES PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH
TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15







000
FXUS63 KUNR 041703
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1003 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

RADAR/SAT SHOWING LIGHT SHSN DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW TO
WCNTRL SD PLAINS...AND PERHAPS INTO THE NRN BEAR LODGE FOOTHILLS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE SHOWERS WILL END THROUGH THE
AFTN...SO HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO ADD MENTION OF
SCATTERED FLURRIES. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT
SE OVER THE REGION TODAY. COLD CONDS THIS MORNING AS ARCTIC AIR
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. DID TRIM BACK THE WIND CHILL ADV TO JUST NW SD
AS STRONGER WINDS HAVE NOT MATERIALIZE. A FEW FLURRIES MAY BE FOUND
IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND ACROSS FAR NW SD THIS MORNING PER
THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW HIGHER BASED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES PER STRONG INSOLATION. HOWEVER...VERY DRY BL
CONDS WILL LIMIT ANY PRECIP TO MAINLY VIRGA OR A FEW FLURRIES AT
BEST. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDS AND WARM NW UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE SHIFTS
BACK EAST. PROGRESSIVE NW FLOW WILL SUPPORT A SHORTWAVE ACROSS SK/MB
WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE SUPPORTING WAA OVER THE FA
TONIGHT THROUGH THUR. REFLECTED WSW FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMING TEMPS
LATE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR WEST...MAINLY IN FAVORED
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS. DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE AREA TO SEE
WARM CONDS THUR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S EXPECTED NEARLY ALL PLACES
OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FROM
FRIDAY...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BROAD
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE UPPER RIDGE DOES PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH
TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15








000
FXUS63 KUNR 041703
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1003 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

RADAR/SAT SHOWING LIGHT SHSN DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW TO
WCNTRL SD PLAINS...AND PERHAPS INTO THE NRN BEAR LODGE FOOTHILLS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE SHOWERS WILL END THROUGH THE
AFTN...SO HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO ADD MENTION OF
SCATTERED FLURRIES. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT
SE OVER THE REGION TODAY. COLD CONDS THIS MORNING AS ARCTIC AIR
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. DID TRIM BACK THE WIND CHILL ADV TO JUST NW SD
AS STRONGER WINDS HAVE NOT MATERIALIZE. A FEW FLURRIES MAY BE FOUND
IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND ACROSS FAR NW SD THIS MORNING PER
THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW HIGHER BASED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES PER STRONG INSOLATION. HOWEVER...VERY DRY BL
CONDS WILL LIMIT ANY PRECIP TO MAINLY VIRGA OR A FEW FLURRIES AT
BEST. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDS AND WARM NW UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE SHIFTS
BACK EAST. PROGRESSIVE NW FLOW WILL SUPPORT A SHORTWAVE ACROSS SK/MB
WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE SUPPORTING WAA OVER THE FA
TONIGHT THROUGH THUR. REFLECTED WSW FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMING TEMPS
LATE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR WEST...MAINLY IN FAVORED
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS. DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE AREA TO SEE
WARM CONDS THUR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S EXPECTED NEARLY ALL PLACES
OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FROM
FRIDAY...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BROAD
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE UPPER RIDGE DOES PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH
TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15







000
FXUS63 KUNR 041703
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1003 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

RADAR/SAT SHOWING LIGHT SHSN DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW TO
WCNTRL SD PLAINS...AND PERHAPS INTO THE NRN BEAR LODGE FOOTHILLS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE SHOWERS WILL END THROUGH THE
AFTN...SO HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO ADD MENTION OF
SCATTERED FLURRIES. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT
SE OVER THE REGION TODAY. COLD CONDS THIS MORNING AS ARCTIC AIR
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. DID TRIM BACK THE WIND CHILL ADV TO JUST NW SD
AS STRONGER WINDS HAVE NOT MATERIALIZE. A FEW FLURRIES MAY BE FOUND
IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND ACROSS FAR NW SD THIS MORNING PER
THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW HIGHER BASED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES PER STRONG INSOLATION. HOWEVER...VERY DRY BL
CONDS WILL LIMIT ANY PRECIP TO MAINLY VIRGA OR A FEW FLURRIES AT
BEST. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDS AND WARM NW UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE SHIFTS
BACK EAST. PROGRESSIVE NW FLOW WILL SUPPORT A SHORTWAVE ACROSS SK/MB
WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE SUPPORTING WAA OVER THE FA
TONIGHT THROUGH THUR. REFLECTED WSW FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMING TEMPS
LATE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR WEST...MAINLY IN FAVORED
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS. DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE AREA TO SEE
WARM CONDS THUR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S EXPECTED NEARLY ALL PLACES
OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FROM
FRIDAY...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BROAD
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE UPPER RIDGE DOES PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH
TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15








000
FXUS63 KUNR 040941
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
241 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT
SE OVER THE REGION TODAY. COLD CONDS THIS MORNING AS ARCTIC AIR
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. DID TRIM BACK THE WIND CHILL ADV TO JUST NW SD
AS STRONGER WINDS HAVE NOT MATERIALIZE. A FEW FLURRIES MAY BE FOUND
IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND ACROSS FAR NW SD THIS MORNING PER
THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW HIGHER BASED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES PER STRONG INSOLATION. HOWEVER...VERY DRY BL
CONDS WILL LIMIT ANY PRECIP TO MAINLY VIRGA OR A FEW FLURRIES AT
BEST. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDS AND WARM NW UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE SHIFTS
BACK EAST. PROGRESSIVE NW FLOW WILL SUPPORT A SHORTWAVE ACROSS SK/MB
WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE SUPPORTING WAA OVER THE FA
TONIGHT THROUGH THUR. REFLECTED WSW FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMING TEMPS
LATE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR WEST...MAINLY IN FAVORED
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS. DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE AREA TO SEE
WARM CONDS THUR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S EXPECTED NEARLY ALL PLACES
OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FROM
FRIDAY...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BROAD
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE UPPER RIDGE DOES PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH
TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15








000
FXUS63 KUNR 040941
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
241 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT
SE OVER THE REGION TODAY. COLD CONDS THIS MORNING AS ARCTIC AIR
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. DID TRIM BACK THE WIND CHILL ADV TO JUST NW SD
AS STRONGER WINDS HAVE NOT MATERIALIZE. A FEW FLURRIES MAY BE FOUND
IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND ACROSS FAR NW SD THIS MORNING PER
THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW HIGHER BASED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES PER STRONG INSOLATION. HOWEVER...VERY DRY BL
CONDS WILL LIMIT ANY PRECIP TO MAINLY VIRGA OR A FEW FLURRIES AT
BEST. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDS AND WARM NW UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE SHIFTS
BACK EAST. PROGRESSIVE NW FLOW WILL SUPPORT A SHORTWAVE ACROSS SK/MB
WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE SUPPORTING WAA OVER THE FA
TONIGHT THROUGH THUR. REFLECTED WSW FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMING TEMPS
LATE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR WEST...MAINLY IN FAVORED
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS. DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE AREA TO SEE
WARM CONDS THUR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S EXPECTED NEARLY ALL PLACES
OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FROM
FRIDAY...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BROAD
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE UPPER RIDGE DOES PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH
TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15







000
FXUS63 KUNR 040510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1010 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD 1028MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER MT NOSING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOUR HAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MT INTO WY...WHICH IS ASSISTING LAST VESTIGES OF STORM
SYSTEM TO PRODUCE SOME -SN OVER/NEAR SOUTHWEST SD IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SOME LEE SIDE TERRAIN CONVERGENCE AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS.
THIS -SN WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN -SN ENDING AND BLOWING
SNOW WANING...WILL CANCEL REMAINDER OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH MOVES OVER CWA WITH WEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING/COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN A FEW BREEZY SPOTS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
WILL BRING -25F TO -30F WIND CHILLS TO NORTHEAST WY/NORTHWEST/WEST
CENTRAL SD LATER TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON
BACK SIDE OF HIGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

WARMER AIR WILL BUILD QUICKLY INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH MOVES WELL EAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO
NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE DOES PROGRESS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-024-025-028-029-072-073.

WY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ054>058-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10








000
FXUS63 KUNR 040510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1010 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD 1028MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER MT NOSING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOUR HAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MT INTO WY...WHICH IS ASSISTING LAST VESTIGES OF STORM
SYSTEM TO PRODUCE SOME -SN OVER/NEAR SOUTHWEST SD IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SOME LEE SIDE TERRAIN CONVERGENCE AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS.
THIS -SN WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN -SN ENDING AND BLOWING
SNOW WANING...WILL CANCEL REMAINDER OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH MOVES OVER CWA WITH WEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING/COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN A FEW BREEZY SPOTS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
WILL BRING -25F TO -30F WIND CHILLS TO NORTHEAST WY/NORTHWEST/WEST
CENTRAL SD LATER TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON
BACK SIDE OF HIGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

WARMER AIR WILL BUILD QUICKLY INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH MOVES WELL EAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO
NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE DOES PROGRESS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-024-025-028-029-072-073.

WY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ054>058-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 040510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1010 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD 1028MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER MT NOSING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOUR HAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MT INTO WY...WHICH IS ASSISTING LAST VESTIGES OF STORM
SYSTEM TO PRODUCE SOME -SN OVER/NEAR SOUTHWEST SD IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SOME LEE SIDE TERRAIN CONVERGENCE AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS.
THIS -SN WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN -SN ENDING AND BLOWING
SNOW WANING...WILL CANCEL REMAINDER OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH MOVES OVER CWA WITH WEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING/COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN A FEW BREEZY SPOTS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
WILL BRING -25F TO -30F WIND CHILLS TO NORTHEAST WY/NORTHWEST/WEST
CENTRAL SD LATER TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON
BACK SIDE OF HIGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

WARMER AIR WILL BUILD QUICKLY INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH MOVES WELL EAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO
NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE DOES PROGRESS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-024-025-028-029-072-073.

WY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ054>058-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10








000
FXUS63 KUNR 040510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1010 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD 1028MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER MT NOSING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOUR HAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MT INTO WY...WHICH IS ASSISTING LAST VESTIGES OF STORM
SYSTEM TO PRODUCE SOME -SN OVER/NEAR SOUTHWEST SD IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SOME LEE SIDE TERRAIN CONVERGENCE AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS.
THIS -SN WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN -SN ENDING AND BLOWING
SNOW WANING...WILL CANCEL REMAINDER OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH MOVES OVER CWA WITH WEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING/COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN A FEW BREEZY SPOTS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
WILL BRING -25F TO -30F WIND CHILLS TO NORTHEAST WY/NORTHWEST/WEST
CENTRAL SD LATER TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON
BACK SIDE OF HIGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

WARMER AIR WILL BUILD QUICKLY INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH MOVES WELL EAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO
NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE DOES PROGRESS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-024-025-028-029-072-073.

WY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ054>058-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 032314
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
414 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD 1028MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER MT NOSING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOUR HAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MT INTO WY...WHICH IS ASSISTING LAST VESTIGES OF STORM
SYSTEM TO PRODUCE SOME -SN OVER/NEAR SOUTHWEST SD IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SOME LEE SIDE TERRAIN CONVERGENCE AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS.
THIS -SN WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN -SN ENDING AND BLOWING
SNOW WANING...WILL CANCEL REMAINDER OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH MOVES OVER CWA WITH WEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING/COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN A FEW BREEZY SPOTS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
WILL BRING -25F TO -30F WIND CHILLS TO NORTHEAST WY/NORTHWEST/WEST
CENTRAL SD LATER TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON
BACK SIDE OF HIGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

WARMER AIR WILL BUILD QUICKLY INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH MOVES WELL EAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO
NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE DOES PROGRESS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 414 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHERN
SD INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST SD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-024-025-028-029-072-073.

WY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ054>058-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10









000
FXUS63 KUNR 032314
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
414 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD 1028MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER MT NOSING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOUR HAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MT INTO WY...WHICH IS ASSISTING LAST VESTIGES OF STORM
SYSTEM TO PRODUCE SOME -SN OVER/NEAR SOUTHWEST SD IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SOME LEE SIDE TERRAIN CONVERGENCE AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS.
THIS -SN WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN -SN ENDING AND BLOWING
SNOW WANING...WILL CANCEL REMAINDER OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH MOVES OVER CWA WITH WEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING/COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN A FEW BREEZY SPOTS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
WILL BRING -25F TO -30F WIND CHILLS TO NORTHEAST WY/NORTHWEST/WEST
CENTRAL SD LATER TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON
BACK SIDE OF HIGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

WARMER AIR WILL BUILD QUICKLY INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH MOVES WELL EAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO
NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE DOES PROGRESS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 414 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHERN
SD INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST SD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-024-025-028-029-072-073.

WY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ054>058-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10









000
FXUS63 KUNR 032314
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
414 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD 1028MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER MT NOSING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOUR HAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MT INTO WY...WHICH IS ASSISTING LAST VESTIGES OF STORM
SYSTEM TO PRODUCE SOME -SN OVER/NEAR SOUTHWEST SD IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SOME LEE SIDE TERRAIN CONVERGENCE AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS.
THIS -SN WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN -SN ENDING AND BLOWING
SNOW WANING...WILL CANCEL REMAINDER OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH MOVES OVER CWA WITH WEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING/COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN A FEW BREEZY SPOTS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
WILL BRING -25F TO -30F WIND CHILLS TO NORTHEAST WY/NORTHWEST/WEST
CENTRAL SD LATER TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON
BACK SIDE OF HIGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

WARMER AIR WILL BUILD QUICKLY INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH MOVES WELL EAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO
NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE DOES PROGRESS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 414 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHERN
SD INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST SD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-024-025-028-029-072-073.

WY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ054>058-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10








000
FXUS63 KUNR 032314
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
414 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD 1028MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER MT NOSING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOUR HAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MT INTO WY...WHICH IS ASSISTING LAST VESTIGES OF STORM
SYSTEM TO PRODUCE SOME -SN OVER/NEAR SOUTHWEST SD IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SOME LEE SIDE TERRAIN CONVERGENCE AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS.
THIS -SN WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN -SN ENDING AND BLOWING
SNOW WANING...WILL CANCEL REMAINDER OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH MOVES OVER CWA WITH WEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING/COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN A FEW BREEZY SPOTS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
WILL BRING -25F TO -30F WIND CHILLS TO NORTHEAST WY/NORTHWEST/WEST
CENTRAL SD LATER TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON
BACK SIDE OF HIGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

WARMER AIR WILL BUILD QUICKLY INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH MOVES WELL EAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO
NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE DOES PROGRESS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 414 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHERN
SD INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST SD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-024-025-028-029-072-073.

WY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ054>058-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10








000
FXUS63 KUNR 032122
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
222 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD 1028MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER MT NOSING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOUR HAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MT INTO WY...WHICH IS ASSISTING LAST VESTIGES OF STORM
SYSTEM TO PRODUCE SOME -SN OVER/NEAR SOUTHWEST SD IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SOME LEE SIDE TERRAIN CONVERGENCE AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS.
THIS -SN WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN -SN ENDING AND BLOWING
SNOW WANING...WILL CANCEL REMAINDER OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH MOVES OVER CWA WITH WEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING/COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN A FEW BREEZY SPOTS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
WILL BRING -25F TO -30F WIND CHILLS TO NORTHEAST WY/NORTHWEST/WEST
CENTRAL SD LATER TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON
BACK SIDE OF HIGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

WARMER AIR WILL BUILD QUICKLY INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH MOVES WELL EAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO
NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE DOES PROGRESS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

AREAS OF SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS AND FAR
SOUTHWEST SD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHERN SD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS OVER FAR SOUTHWEST SD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-024-025-028-029-072-073.

WY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ054>058-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS63 KUNR 032122
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
222 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD 1028MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER MT NOSING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOUR HAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MT INTO WY...WHICH IS ASSISTING LAST VESTIGES OF STORM
SYSTEM TO PRODUCE SOME -SN OVER/NEAR SOUTHWEST SD IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SOME LEE SIDE TERRAIN CONVERGENCE AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS.
THIS -SN WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN -SN ENDING AND BLOWING
SNOW WANING...WILL CANCEL REMAINDER OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH MOVES OVER CWA WITH WEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING/COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN A FEW BREEZY SPOTS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
WILL BRING -25F TO -30F WIND CHILLS TO NORTHEAST WY/NORTHWEST/WEST
CENTRAL SD LATER TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON
BACK SIDE OF HIGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

WARMER AIR WILL BUILD QUICKLY INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH MOVES WELL EAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO
NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE DOES PROGRESS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

AREAS OF SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS AND FAR
SOUTHWEST SD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHERN SD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS OVER FAR SOUTHWEST SD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-024-025-028-029-072-073.

WY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ054>058-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS63 KUNR 032122
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
222 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD 1028MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER MT NOSING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOUR HAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MT INTO WY...WHICH IS ASSISTING LAST VESTIGES OF STORM
SYSTEM TO PRODUCE SOME -SN OVER/NEAR SOUTHWEST SD IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SOME LEE SIDE TERRAIN CONVERGENCE AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS.
THIS -SN WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN -SN ENDING AND BLOWING
SNOW WANING...WILL CANCEL REMAINDER OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH MOVES OVER CWA WITH WEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING/COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN A FEW BREEZY SPOTS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
WILL BRING -25F TO -30F WIND CHILLS TO NORTHEAST WY/NORTHWEST/WEST
CENTRAL SD LATER TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON
BACK SIDE OF HIGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

WARMER AIR WILL BUILD QUICKLY INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH MOVES WELL EAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO
NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE DOES PROGRESS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

AREAS OF SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS AND FAR
SOUTHWEST SD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHERN SD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS OVER FAR SOUTHWEST SD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-024-025-028-029-072-073.

WY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ054>058-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26






000
FXUS63 KUNR 031734
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1034 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ON MOST OF THE SD PLAINS...FAR
NORTHEAST WY...NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SHOW SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING TO OUR WEST WHICH WILL SUPPORT
-SN OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNSTREAM
CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE NOTED ON RADAR AND MODEL GUIDANCE FOR FAR
SOUTHWEST SD. HEADLINES ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 753 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

LOOKING AT LATEST WEB CAMS...RADAR LOOPS...AND 12Z RAP...WILL SHAVE
SOME OF THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. GOOD
DRYING COMING IN AND LESS SNOW THAN EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST
SD...SO EVEN WITH GUSTY WINDS...BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

MERGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED REFLECTED
FGEN RESPONSE CONTINUING TO TRAVERSE THE REGION THIS MORNING. A
DECENT BAND OF MODERATE SNOW IS IN PLACE AS OF 09Z ACROSS WESTERN
SD...WHERE FGEN/UVM/LSA ARE CURRENTLY COUPLED AND MAXIMIZED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THIS BAND WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERAL LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING IN IS WAKE THROUGH
MOST OF THE MORNING. SIG BL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SAVE FOR A WEAK
UPSLOPE RESPONSE TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN HILLS...DRY WX EXPECT TO
PREVAIL MOST PLACES TONIGHT THROUGH WED.

TODAY...PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOBE OF ASCENT WILL SHIFT
QUICKLY NE OF THE FA. THIS WILL SUPPORT A QUICK WANE TO SNOW...WITH
GENERALLY 1-3 ADDITIONAL INCHES EXPECTED WHERE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS
ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NW WINDS ON THE
SD PLAINS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS A
QUICKER WANE TO WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
MODEL SUITES SUGGESTED. IN ADDITION...UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL QUICKLY
WANE AS BL DRYING HIGHLY IMPACTS SNOW PRODUCTION THERE BY LATE
MORNING. HENCE...MANY OF THE HEADLINES COULD LIKELY BE DROPPED
LATE THIS MORNING...ON TRACK WITH MOST HEADLINE EXPIRATIONS. WILL
DROP THE FAR NW SD ZONES FROM THE WINTER WX ADV. SNOW HAS NOT
REALLY MATERIALIZED THERE AND AT MOST ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS
EXPECTED IN AREAS THAT DO SEE SNOW. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT LOOKS
TO SEE SNOW ACCUMS INTO THE AFTERNOON IS THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS
WHERE EDDY CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH ONLY A COUPLE
ADDITIONAL INCHES AT MOST WOULD BE EXPECTED THERE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...COLD CONDS ON TRACK WITH TEMPS FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT...DRY CONDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS. MAIN NORTHERN STEAM
TROUGH AXIS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION TONIGHT...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A
WEAK UPSLOPE RESPONSE IN THE NORTHERN HILLS. BL MOISTURE IS PRETTY
LIMITED...HENCE SNOW PROBS REMAIN VERY LOW. ISALLOBARIC WIND WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...SUPPORTING SUSTAINED NW WINDS.
THIS WILL SUPPORT NEAR WINDCHILL ADV CONDS ACROSS THE NW SD ZONES.

WED...SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH DRY WX AND CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED. COLD CONDS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOST LOCATIONS
STRUGGLING OUT OF THE TEENS. WAA WILL ENSUE WED NIGHT...WITH TYPICAL
DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS SEEING RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES WELL EAST...AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND AS MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF AND ENDED IN MOST AREAS THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST SD AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WY. SNOW WILL END ACROSS NORTHEAST WY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING AT KGCC...WHILE AREAS OF SNOW WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY INTO SOUTHERN SD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS OVER FAR SOUTHWEST SD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 35 KTS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SD PLAINS...THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ027-
     029-041-074.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ054-
     055-058.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 031734
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1034 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ON MOST OF THE SD PLAINS...FAR
NORTHEAST WY...NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SHOW SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING TO OUR WEST WHICH WILL SUPPORT
-SN OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNSTREAM
CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE NOTED ON RADAR AND MODEL GUIDANCE FOR FAR
SOUTHWEST SD. HEADLINES ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 753 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

LOOKING AT LATEST WEB CAMS...RADAR LOOPS...AND 12Z RAP...WILL SHAVE
SOME OF THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. GOOD
DRYING COMING IN AND LESS SNOW THAN EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST
SD...SO EVEN WITH GUSTY WINDS...BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

MERGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED REFLECTED
FGEN RESPONSE CONTINUING TO TRAVERSE THE REGION THIS MORNING. A
DECENT BAND OF MODERATE SNOW IS IN PLACE AS OF 09Z ACROSS WESTERN
SD...WHERE FGEN/UVM/LSA ARE CURRENTLY COUPLED AND MAXIMIZED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THIS BAND WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERAL LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING IN IS WAKE THROUGH
MOST OF THE MORNING. SIG BL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SAVE FOR A WEAK
UPSLOPE RESPONSE TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN HILLS...DRY WX EXPECT TO
PREVAIL MOST PLACES TONIGHT THROUGH WED.

TODAY...PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOBE OF ASCENT WILL SHIFT
QUICKLY NE OF THE FA. THIS WILL SUPPORT A QUICK WANE TO SNOW...WITH
GENERALLY 1-3 ADDITIONAL INCHES EXPECTED WHERE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS
ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NW WINDS ON THE
SD PLAINS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS A
QUICKER WANE TO WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
MODEL SUITES SUGGESTED. IN ADDITION...UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL QUICKLY
WANE AS BL DRYING HIGHLY IMPACTS SNOW PRODUCTION THERE BY LATE
MORNING. HENCE...MANY OF THE HEADLINES COULD LIKELY BE DROPPED
LATE THIS MORNING...ON TRACK WITH MOST HEADLINE EXPIRATIONS. WILL
DROP THE FAR NW SD ZONES FROM THE WINTER WX ADV. SNOW HAS NOT
REALLY MATERIALIZED THERE AND AT MOST ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS
EXPECTED IN AREAS THAT DO SEE SNOW. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT LOOKS
TO SEE SNOW ACCUMS INTO THE AFTERNOON IS THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS
WHERE EDDY CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH ONLY A COUPLE
ADDITIONAL INCHES AT MOST WOULD BE EXPECTED THERE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...COLD CONDS ON TRACK WITH TEMPS FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT...DRY CONDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS. MAIN NORTHERN STEAM
TROUGH AXIS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION TONIGHT...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A
WEAK UPSLOPE RESPONSE IN THE NORTHERN HILLS. BL MOISTURE IS PRETTY
LIMITED...HENCE SNOW PROBS REMAIN VERY LOW. ISALLOBARIC WIND WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...SUPPORTING SUSTAINED NW WINDS.
THIS WILL SUPPORT NEAR WINDCHILL ADV CONDS ACROSS THE NW SD ZONES.

WED...SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH DRY WX AND CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED. COLD CONDS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOST LOCATIONS
STRUGGLING OUT OF THE TEENS. WAA WILL ENSUE WED NIGHT...WITH TYPICAL
DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS SEEING RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES WELL EAST...AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND AS MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF AND ENDED IN MOST AREAS THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST SD AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WY. SNOW WILL END ACROSS NORTHEAST WY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING AT KGCC...WHILE AREAS OF SNOW WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY INTO SOUTHERN SD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS OVER FAR SOUTHWEST SD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 35 KTS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SD PLAINS...THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ027-
     029-041-074.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ054-
     055-058.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 031456
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
756 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 753 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

LOOKING AT LATEST WEB CAMS...RADAR LOOPS...AND 12Z RAP...WILL SHAVE
SOME OF THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. GOOD
DRYING COMING IN AND LESS SNOW THAN EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST
SD...SO EVEN WITH GUSTY WINDS...BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

MERGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED REFLECTED
FGEN RESPONSE CONTINUING TO TRAVERSE THE REGION THIS MORNING. A
DECENT BAND OF MODERATE SNOW IS IN PLACE AS OF 09Z ACROSS WESTERN
SD...WHERE FGEN/UVM/LSA ARE CURRENTLY COUPLED AND MAXIMIZED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THIS BAND WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERAL LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING IN IS WAKE THROUGH
MOST OF THE MORNING. SIG BL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SAVE FOR A WEAK
UPSLOPE RESPONSE TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN HILLS...DRY WX EXPECT TO
PREVAIL MOST PLACES TONIGHT THROUGH WED.

TODAY...PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOBE OF ASCENT WILL SHIFT
QUICKLY NE OF THE FA. THIS WILL SUPPORT A QUICK WANE TO SNOW...WITH
GENERALLY 1-3 ADDITIONAL INCHES EXPECTED WHERE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS
ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NW WINDS ON THE
SD PLAINS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS A
QUICKER WANE TO WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
MODEL SUITES SUGGESTED. IN ADDITION...UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL QUICKLY
WANE AS BL DRYING HIGHLY IMPACTS SNOW PRODUCTION THERE BY LATE
MORNING. HENCE...MANY OF THE HEADLINES COULD LIKELY BE DROPPED
LATE THIS MORNING...ON TRACK WITH MOST HEADLINE EXPIRATIONS. WILL
DROP THE FAR NW SD ZONES FROM THE WINTER WX ADV. SNOW HAS NOT
REALLY MATERIALIZED THERE AND AT MOST ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS
EXPECTED IN AREAS THAT DO SEE SNOW. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT LOOKS
TO SEE SNOW ACCUMS INTO THE AFTERNOON IS THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS
WHERE EDDY CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH ONLY A COUPLE
ADDITIONAL INCHES AT MOST WOULD BE EXPECTED THERE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...COLD CONDS ON TRACK WITH TEMPS FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT...DRY CONDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS. MAIN NORTHERN STEAM
TROUGH AXIS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION TONIGHT...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A
WEAK UPSLOPE RESPONSE IN THE NORTHERN HILLS. BL MOISTURE IS PRETTY
LIMITED...HENCE SNOW PROBS REMAIN VERY LOW. ISALLOBARIC WIND WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...SUPPORTING SUSTAINED NW WINDS.
THIS WILL SUPPORT NEAR WINDCHILL ADV CONDS ACROSS THE NW SD ZONES.

WED...SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH DRY WX AND CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED. COLD CONDS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOST LOCATIONS
STRUGGLING OUT OF THE TEENS. WAA WILL ENSUE WED NIGHT...WITH TYPICAL
DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS SEEING RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES WELL EAST...AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND AS MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH LIGHT SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW PERSISTING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THAT CLEARING SLOWLY PROGRESSING SOUTH INTO THE
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT KRAP AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
PERSIST ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WEST OF KRAP ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ024-
     025-028.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST /1 PM CST/ TODAY FOR
     SDZ030>032-042>044-046-047-049.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ027-
     029-041-074.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WYZ054>058-071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15





000
FXUS63 KUNR 031456
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
756 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 753 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

LOOKING AT LATEST WEB CAMS...RADAR LOOPS...AND 12Z RAP...WILL SHAVE
SOME OF THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. GOOD
DRYING COMING IN AND LESS SNOW THAN EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST
SD...SO EVEN WITH GUSTY WINDS...BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

MERGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED REFLECTED
FGEN RESPONSE CONTINUING TO TRAVERSE THE REGION THIS MORNING. A
DECENT BAND OF MODERATE SNOW IS IN PLACE AS OF 09Z ACROSS WESTERN
SD...WHERE FGEN/UVM/LSA ARE CURRENTLY COUPLED AND MAXIMIZED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THIS BAND WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERAL LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING IN IS WAKE THROUGH
MOST OF THE MORNING. SIG BL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SAVE FOR A WEAK
UPSLOPE RESPONSE TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN HILLS...DRY WX EXPECT TO
PREVAIL MOST PLACES TONIGHT THROUGH WED.

TODAY...PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOBE OF ASCENT WILL SHIFT
QUICKLY NE OF THE FA. THIS WILL SUPPORT A QUICK WANE TO SNOW...WITH
GENERALLY 1-3 ADDITIONAL INCHES EXPECTED WHERE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS
ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NW WINDS ON THE
SD PLAINS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS A
QUICKER WANE TO WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
MODEL SUITES SUGGESTED. IN ADDITION...UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL QUICKLY
WANE AS BL DRYING HIGHLY IMPACTS SNOW PRODUCTION THERE BY LATE
MORNING. HENCE...MANY OF THE HEADLINES COULD LIKELY BE DROPPED
LATE THIS MORNING...ON TRACK WITH MOST HEADLINE EXPIRATIONS. WILL
DROP THE FAR NW SD ZONES FROM THE WINTER WX ADV. SNOW HAS NOT
REALLY MATERIALIZED THERE AND AT MOST ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS
EXPECTED IN AREAS THAT DO SEE SNOW. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT LOOKS
TO SEE SNOW ACCUMS INTO THE AFTERNOON IS THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS
WHERE EDDY CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH ONLY A COUPLE
ADDITIONAL INCHES AT MOST WOULD BE EXPECTED THERE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...COLD CONDS ON TRACK WITH TEMPS FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT...DRY CONDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS. MAIN NORTHERN STEAM
TROUGH AXIS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION TONIGHT...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A
WEAK UPSLOPE RESPONSE IN THE NORTHERN HILLS. BL MOISTURE IS PRETTY
LIMITED...HENCE SNOW PROBS REMAIN VERY LOW. ISALLOBARIC WIND WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...SUPPORTING SUSTAINED NW WINDS.
THIS WILL SUPPORT NEAR WINDCHILL ADV CONDS ACROSS THE NW SD ZONES.

WED...SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH DRY WX AND CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED. COLD CONDS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOST LOCATIONS
STRUGGLING OUT OF THE TEENS. WAA WILL ENSUE WED NIGHT...WITH TYPICAL
DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS SEEING RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES WELL EAST...AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND AS MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH LIGHT SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW PERSISTING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THAT CLEARING SLOWLY PROGRESSING SOUTH INTO THE
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT KRAP AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
PERSIST ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WEST OF KRAP ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ024-
     025-028.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST /1 PM CST/ TODAY FOR
     SDZ030>032-042>044-046-047-049.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ027-
     029-041-074.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WYZ054>058-071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15






000
FXUS63 KUNR 031456
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
756 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 753 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

LOOKING AT LATEST WEB CAMS...RADAR LOOPS...AND 12Z RAP...WILL SHAVE
SOME OF THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. GOOD
DRYING COMING IN AND LESS SNOW THAN EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST
SD...SO EVEN WITH GUSTY WINDS...BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

MERGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED REFLECTED
FGEN RESPONSE CONTINUING TO TRAVERSE THE REGION THIS MORNING. A
DECENT BAND OF MODERATE SNOW IS IN PLACE AS OF 09Z ACROSS WESTERN
SD...WHERE FGEN/UVM/LSA ARE CURRENTLY COUPLED AND MAXIMIZED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THIS BAND WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERAL LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING IN IS WAKE THROUGH
MOST OF THE MORNING. SIG BL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SAVE FOR A WEAK
UPSLOPE RESPONSE TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN HILLS...DRY WX EXPECT TO
PREVAIL MOST PLACES TONIGHT THROUGH WED.

TODAY...PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOBE OF ASCENT WILL SHIFT
QUICKLY NE OF THE FA. THIS WILL SUPPORT A QUICK WANE TO SNOW...WITH
GENERALLY 1-3 ADDITIONAL INCHES EXPECTED WHERE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS
ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NW WINDS ON THE
SD PLAINS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS A
QUICKER WANE TO WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
MODEL SUITES SUGGESTED. IN ADDITION...UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL QUICKLY
WANE AS BL DRYING HIGHLY IMPACTS SNOW PRODUCTION THERE BY LATE
MORNING. HENCE...MANY OF THE HEADLINES COULD LIKELY BE DROPPED
LATE THIS MORNING...ON TRACK WITH MOST HEADLINE EXPIRATIONS. WILL
DROP THE FAR NW SD ZONES FROM THE WINTER WX ADV. SNOW HAS NOT
REALLY MATERIALIZED THERE AND AT MOST ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS
EXPECTED IN AREAS THAT DO SEE SNOW. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT LOOKS
TO SEE SNOW ACCUMS INTO THE AFTERNOON IS THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS
WHERE EDDY CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH ONLY A COUPLE
ADDITIONAL INCHES AT MOST WOULD BE EXPECTED THERE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...COLD CONDS ON TRACK WITH TEMPS FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT...DRY CONDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS. MAIN NORTHERN STEAM
TROUGH AXIS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION TONIGHT...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A
WEAK UPSLOPE RESPONSE IN THE NORTHERN HILLS. BL MOISTURE IS PRETTY
LIMITED...HENCE SNOW PROBS REMAIN VERY LOW. ISALLOBARIC WIND WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...SUPPORTING SUSTAINED NW WINDS.
THIS WILL SUPPORT NEAR WINDCHILL ADV CONDS ACROSS THE NW SD ZONES.

WED...SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH DRY WX AND CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED. COLD CONDS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOST LOCATIONS
STRUGGLING OUT OF THE TEENS. WAA WILL ENSUE WED NIGHT...WITH TYPICAL
DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS SEEING RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES WELL EAST...AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND AS MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH LIGHT SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW PERSISTING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THAT CLEARING SLOWLY PROGRESSING SOUTH INTO THE
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT KRAP AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
PERSIST ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WEST OF KRAP ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ024-
     025-028.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST /1 PM CST/ TODAY FOR
     SDZ030>032-042>044-046-047-049.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ027-
     029-041-074.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WYZ054>058-071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15






000
FXUS63 KUNR 030937
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
237 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

MERGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED REFLECTED
FGEN RESPONSE CONTINUING TO TRAVERSE THE REGION THIS MORNING. A
DECENT BAND OF MODERATE SNOW IS IN PLACE AS OF 09Z ACROSS WESTERN
SD...WHERE FGEN/UVM/LSA ARE CURRENTLY COUPLED AND MAXIMIZED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THIS BAND WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERAL LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING IN IS WAKE THROUGH
MOST OF THE MORNING. SIG BL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SAVE FOR A WEAK
UPSLOPE RESPONSE TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN HILLS...DRY WX EXPECT TO
PREVAIL MOST PLACES TONIGHT THROUGH WED.

TODAY...PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOBE OF ASCENT WILL SHIFT
QUICKLY NE OF THE FA. THIS WILL SUPPORT A QUICK WANE TO SNOW...WITH
GENERALLY 1-3 ADDITIONAL INCHES EXPECTED WHERE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS
ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NW WINDS ON THE
SD PLAINS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS A
QUICKER WANE TO WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
MODEL SUITES SUGGESTED. IN ADDITION...UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL QUICKLY
WANE AS BL DRYING HIGHLY IMPACTS SNOW PRODUCTION THERE BY LATE
MORNING. HENCE...MANY OF THE HEADLINES COULD LIKELY BE DROPPED
LATE THIS MORNING...ON TRACK WITH MOST HEADLINE EXPIRATIONS. WILL
DROP THE FAR NW SD ZONES FROM THE WINTER WX ADV. SNOW HAS NOT
REALLY MATERIALIZED THERE AND AT MOST ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS
EXPECTED IN AREAS THAT DO SEE SNOW. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT LOOKS
TO SEE SNOW ACCUMS INTO THE AFTERNOON IS THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS
WHERE EDDY CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH ONLY A COUPLE
ADDITIONAL INCHES AT MOST WOULD BE EXPECTED THERE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...COLD CONDS ON TRACK WITH TEMPS FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT...DRY CONDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS. MAIN NORTHERN STEAM
TROUGH AXIS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION TONIGHT...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A
WEAK UPSLOPE RESPONSE IN THE NORTHERN HILLS. BL MOISTURE IS PRETTY
LIMITED...HENCE SNOW PROBS REMAIN VERY LOW. ISALLOBARIC WIND WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...SUPPORTING SUSTAINED NW WINDS.
THIS WILL SUPPORT NEAR WINDCHILL ADV CONDS ACROSS THE NW SD ZONES.

WED...SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH DRY WX AND CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED. COLD CONDS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOST LOCATIONS
STRUGGLING OUT OF THE TEENS. WAA WILL ENSUE WED NIGHT...WITH TYPICAL
DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS SEEING RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES WELL EAST...AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND AS MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH LIGHT SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW PERSISTING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THAT CLEARING SLOWLY PROGRESSING SOUTH INTO THE
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT KRAP AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
PERSIST ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WEST OF KRAP ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ024-
     025-028-072.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST /1 PM CST/ TODAY FOR
     SDZ030>032-042>044-046-047-049.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ027-
     029-041-074.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR SDZ012>014-026-
     073.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WYZ054>058-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15







000
FXUS63 KUNR 030937
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
237 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

MERGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED REFLECTED
FGEN RESPONSE CONTINUING TO TRAVERSE THE REGION THIS MORNING. A
DECENT BAND OF MODERATE SNOW IS IN PLACE AS OF 09Z ACROSS WESTERN
SD...WHERE FGEN/UVM/LSA ARE CURRENTLY COUPLED AND MAXIMIZED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THIS BAND WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERAL LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING IN IS WAKE THROUGH
MOST OF THE MORNING. SIG BL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SAVE FOR A WEAK
UPSLOPE RESPONSE TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN HILLS...DRY WX EXPECT TO
PREVAIL MOST PLACES TONIGHT THROUGH WED.

TODAY...PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOBE OF ASCENT WILL SHIFT
QUICKLY NE OF THE FA. THIS WILL SUPPORT A QUICK WANE TO SNOW...WITH
GENERALLY 1-3 ADDITIONAL INCHES EXPECTED WHERE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS
ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NW WINDS ON THE
SD PLAINS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS A
QUICKER WANE TO WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
MODEL SUITES SUGGESTED. IN ADDITION...UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL QUICKLY
WANE AS BL DRYING HIGHLY IMPACTS SNOW PRODUCTION THERE BY LATE
MORNING. HENCE...MANY OF THE HEADLINES COULD LIKELY BE DROPPED
LATE THIS MORNING...ON TRACK WITH MOST HEADLINE EXPIRATIONS. WILL
DROP THE FAR NW SD ZONES FROM THE WINTER WX ADV. SNOW HAS NOT
REALLY MATERIALIZED THERE AND AT MOST ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS
EXPECTED IN AREAS THAT DO SEE SNOW. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT LOOKS
TO SEE SNOW ACCUMS INTO THE AFTERNOON IS THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS
WHERE EDDY CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH ONLY A COUPLE
ADDITIONAL INCHES AT MOST WOULD BE EXPECTED THERE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...COLD CONDS ON TRACK WITH TEMPS FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT...DRY CONDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS. MAIN NORTHERN STEAM
TROUGH AXIS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION TONIGHT...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A
WEAK UPSLOPE RESPONSE IN THE NORTHERN HILLS. BL MOISTURE IS PRETTY
LIMITED...HENCE SNOW PROBS REMAIN VERY LOW. ISALLOBARIC WIND WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...SUPPORTING SUSTAINED NW WINDS.
THIS WILL SUPPORT NEAR WINDCHILL ADV CONDS ACROSS THE NW SD ZONES.

WED...SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH DRY WX AND CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED. COLD CONDS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOST LOCATIONS
STRUGGLING OUT OF THE TEENS. WAA WILL ENSUE WED NIGHT...WITH TYPICAL
DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS SEEING RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES WELL EAST...AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND AS MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH LIGHT SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW PERSISTING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THAT CLEARING SLOWLY PROGRESSING SOUTH INTO THE
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT KRAP AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
PERSIST ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WEST OF KRAP ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ024-
     025-028-072.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST /1 PM CST/ TODAY FOR
     SDZ030>032-042>044-046-047-049.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ027-
     029-041-074.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR SDZ012>014-026-
     073.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WYZ054>058-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15








000
FXUS63 KUNR 030937
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
237 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

MERGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED REFLECTED
FGEN RESPONSE CONTINUING TO TRAVERSE THE REGION THIS MORNING. A
DECENT BAND OF MODERATE SNOW IS IN PLACE AS OF 09Z ACROSS WESTERN
SD...WHERE FGEN/UVM/LSA ARE CURRENTLY COUPLED AND MAXIMIZED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THIS BAND WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERAL LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING IN IS WAKE THROUGH
MOST OF THE MORNING. SIG BL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SAVE FOR A WEAK
UPSLOPE RESPONSE TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN HILLS...DRY WX EXPECT TO
PREVAIL MOST PLACES TONIGHT THROUGH WED.

TODAY...PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOBE OF ASCENT WILL SHIFT
QUICKLY NE OF THE FA. THIS WILL SUPPORT A QUICK WANE TO SNOW...WITH
GENERALLY 1-3 ADDITIONAL INCHES EXPECTED WHERE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS
ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NW WINDS ON THE
SD PLAINS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS A
QUICKER WANE TO WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
MODEL SUITES SUGGESTED. IN ADDITION...UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL QUICKLY
WANE AS BL DRYING HIGHLY IMPACTS SNOW PRODUCTION THERE BY LATE
MORNING. HENCE...MANY OF THE HEADLINES COULD LIKELY BE DROPPED
LATE THIS MORNING...ON TRACK WITH MOST HEADLINE EXPIRATIONS. WILL
DROP THE FAR NW SD ZONES FROM THE WINTER WX ADV. SNOW HAS NOT
REALLY MATERIALIZED THERE AND AT MOST ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS
EXPECTED IN AREAS THAT DO SEE SNOW. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT LOOKS
TO SEE SNOW ACCUMS INTO THE AFTERNOON IS THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS
WHERE EDDY CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH ONLY A COUPLE
ADDITIONAL INCHES AT MOST WOULD BE EXPECTED THERE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...COLD CONDS ON TRACK WITH TEMPS FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT...DRY CONDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS. MAIN NORTHERN STEAM
TROUGH AXIS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION TONIGHT...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A
WEAK UPSLOPE RESPONSE IN THE NORTHERN HILLS. BL MOISTURE IS PRETTY
LIMITED...HENCE SNOW PROBS REMAIN VERY LOW. ISALLOBARIC WIND WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...SUPPORTING SUSTAINED NW WINDS.
THIS WILL SUPPORT NEAR WINDCHILL ADV CONDS ACROSS THE NW SD ZONES.

WED...SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH DRY WX AND CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED. COLD CONDS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOST LOCATIONS
STRUGGLING OUT OF THE TEENS. WAA WILL ENSUE WED NIGHT...WITH TYPICAL
DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS SEEING RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES WELL EAST...AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND AS MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH LIGHT SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW PERSISTING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THAT CLEARING SLOWLY PROGRESSING SOUTH INTO THE
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT KRAP AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
PERSIST ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WEST OF KRAP ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ024-
     025-028-072.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST /1 PM CST/ TODAY FOR
     SDZ030>032-042>044-046-047-049.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ027-
     029-041-074.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR SDZ012>014-026-
     073.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WYZ054>058-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15







000
FXUS63 KUNR 030937
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
237 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

MERGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED REFLECTED
FGEN RESPONSE CONTINUING TO TRAVERSE THE REGION THIS MORNING. A
DECENT BAND OF MODERATE SNOW IS IN PLACE AS OF 09Z ACROSS WESTERN
SD...WHERE FGEN/UVM/LSA ARE CURRENTLY COUPLED AND MAXIMIZED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THIS BAND WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERAL LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING IN IS WAKE THROUGH
MOST OF THE MORNING. SIG BL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SAVE FOR A WEAK
UPSLOPE RESPONSE TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN HILLS...DRY WX EXPECT TO
PREVAIL MOST PLACES TONIGHT THROUGH WED.

TODAY...PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOBE OF ASCENT WILL SHIFT
QUICKLY NE OF THE FA. THIS WILL SUPPORT A QUICK WANE TO SNOW...WITH
GENERALLY 1-3 ADDITIONAL INCHES EXPECTED WHERE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS
ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NW WINDS ON THE
SD PLAINS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS A
QUICKER WANE TO WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
MODEL SUITES SUGGESTED. IN ADDITION...UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL QUICKLY
WANE AS BL DRYING HIGHLY IMPACTS SNOW PRODUCTION THERE BY LATE
MORNING. HENCE...MANY OF THE HEADLINES COULD LIKELY BE DROPPED
LATE THIS MORNING...ON TRACK WITH MOST HEADLINE EXPIRATIONS. WILL
DROP THE FAR NW SD ZONES FROM THE WINTER WX ADV. SNOW HAS NOT
REALLY MATERIALIZED THERE AND AT MOST ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS
EXPECTED IN AREAS THAT DO SEE SNOW. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT LOOKS
TO SEE SNOW ACCUMS INTO THE AFTERNOON IS THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS
WHERE EDDY CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH ONLY A COUPLE
ADDITIONAL INCHES AT MOST WOULD BE EXPECTED THERE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...COLD CONDS ON TRACK WITH TEMPS FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT...DRY CONDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS. MAIN NORTHERN STEAM
TROUGH AXIS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION TONIGHT...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A
WEAK UPSLOPE RESPONSE IN THE NORTHERN HILLS. BL MOISTURE IS PRETTY
LIMITED...HENCE SNOW PROBS REMAIN VERY LOW. ISALLOBARIC WIND WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...SUPPORTING SUSTAINED NW WINDS.
THIS WILL SUPPORT NEAR WINDCHILL ADV CONDS ACROSS THE NW SD ZONES.

WED...SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH DRY WX AND CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED. COLD CONDS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOST LOCATIONS
STRUGGLING OUT OF THE TEENS. WAA WILL ENSUE WED NIGHT...WITH TYPICAL
DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS SEEING RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES WELL EAST...AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND AS MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH LIGHT SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW PERSISTING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THAT CLEARING SLOWLY PROGRESSING SOUTH INTO THE
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT KRAP AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
PERSIST ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WEST OF KRAP ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ024-
     025-028-072.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST /1 PM CST/ TODAY FOR
     SDZ030>032-042>044-046-047-049.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ027-
     029-041-074.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR SDZ012>014-026-
     073.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WYZ054>058-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15








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