Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KUNR 261134
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
534 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS DEEP TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA
WITH DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SKIES ARE
CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRODUCING
WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SURFACE...ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...AND THE OTHER IS IN COLORADO...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROF IN BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA IS NOSING INTO NORTHEAST
WYOMING. TEMPERATURES AT 3AM ARE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

TODAY...DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WITHIN THE GREAT BASIN TROF WILL
CONTINUE TO EJECT SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS WEAK RIDGING HOLDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
MAJORITY OF MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SD LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THIS AREA...AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO 80+. ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE FAR WESTERN BLACK HILLS. WITH
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...COMBINED WITH WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW...SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IS RATHER LOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE WY DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL
SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS
POSSIBLE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER
BLACK HILLS INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING. THERE STILL REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY AND THE BLACK HILLS.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT NORTHERN
STREAM TROF CROSSES THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER
WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT AREA SHOULD DRY OUT OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. A DECENT
SHORTWAVE AND CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR/LIFR ST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER CENTRAL SD
TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 261134
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
534 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS DEEP TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA
WITH DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SKIES ARE
CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRODUCING
WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SURFACE...ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...AND THE OTHER IS IN COLORADO...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROF IN BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA IS NOSING INTO NORTHEAST
WYOMING. TEMPERATURES AT 3AM ARE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

TODAY...DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WITHIN THE GREAT BASIN TROF WILL
CONTINUE TO EJECT SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS WEAK RIDGING HOLDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
MAJORITY OF MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SD LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THIS AREA...AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO 80+. ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE FAR WESTERN BLACK HILLS. WITH
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...COMBINED WITH WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW...SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IS RATHER LOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE WY DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL
SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS
POSSIBLE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER
BLACK HILLS INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING. THERE STILL REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY AND THE BLACK HILLS.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT NORTHERN
STREAM TROF CROSSES THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER
WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT AREA SHOULD DRY OUT OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. A DECENT
SHORTWAVE AND CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR/LIFR ST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER CENTRAL SD
TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 261134
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
534 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS DEEP TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA
WITH DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SKIES ARE
CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRODUCING
WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SURFACE...ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...AND THE OTHER IS IN COLORADO...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROF IN BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA IS NOSING INTO NORTHEAST
WYOMING. TEMPERATURES AT 3AM ARE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

TODAY...DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WITHIN THE GREAT BASIN TROF WILL
CONTINUE TO EJECT SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS WEAK RIDGING HOLDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
MAJORITY OF MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SD LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THIS AREA...AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO 80+. ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE FAR WESTERN BLACK HILLS. WITH
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...COMBINED WITH WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW...SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IS RATHER LOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE WY DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL
SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS
POSSIBLE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER
BLACK HILLS INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING. THERE STILL REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY AND THE BLACK HILLS.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT NORTHERN
STREAM TROF CROSSES THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER
WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT AREA SHOULD DRY OUT OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. A DECENT
SHORTWAVE AND CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR/LIFR ST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER CENTRAL SD
TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 261134
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
534 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS DEEP TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA
WITH DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SKIES ARE
CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRODUCING
WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SURFACE...ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...AND THE OTHER IS IN COLORADO...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROF IN BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA IS NOSING INTO NORTHEAST
WYOMING. TEMPERATURES AT 3AM ARE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

TODAY...DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WITHIN THE GREAT BASIN TROF WILL
CONTINUE TO EJECT SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS WEAK RIDGING HOLDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
MAJORITY OF MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SD LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THIS AREA...AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO 80+. ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE FAR WESTERN BLACK HILLS. WITH
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...COMBINED WITH WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW...SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IS RATHER LOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE WY DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL
SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS
POSSIBLE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER
BLACK HILLS INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING. THERE STILL REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY AND THE BLACK HILLS.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT NORTHERN
STREAM TROF CROSSES THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER
WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT AREA SHOULD DRY OUT OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. A DECENT
SHORTWAVE AND CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR/LIFR ST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER CENTRAL SD
TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 260938
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
338 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS DEEP TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA
WITH DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SKIES ARE
CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRODUCING
WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SURFACE...ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...AND THE OTHER IS IN COLORADO...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROF IN BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA IS NOSING INTO NORTHEAST
WYOMING. TEMPERATURES AT 3AM ARE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

TODAY...DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WITHIN THE GREAT BASIN TROF WILL
CONTINUE TO EJECT SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS WEAK RIDGING HOLDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
MAJORITY OF MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SD LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THIS AREA...AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO 80+. ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE FAR WESTERN BLACK HILLS. WITH
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...COMBINED WITH WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW...SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IS RATHER LOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE WY DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL
SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS
POSSIBLE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER
BLACK HILLS INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING. THERE STILL REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY AND THE BLACK HILLS.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT NORTHERN
STREAM TROF CROSSES THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER
WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT AREA SHOULD DRY OUT OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. A DECENT
SHORTWAVE AND CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR/LIFR ST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER CENTRAL SD
TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 260938
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
338 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS DEEP TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA
WITH DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SKIES ARE
CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRODUCING
WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SURFACE...ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...AND THE OTHER IS IN COLORADO...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROF IN BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA IS NOSING INTO NORTHEAST
WYOMING. TEMPERATURES AT 3AM ARE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

TODAY...DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WITHIN THE GREAT BASIN TROF WILL
CONTINUE TO EJECT SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS WEAK RIDGING HOLDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
MAJORITY OF MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SD LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THIS AREA...AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO 80+. ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE FAR WESTERN BLACK HILLS. WITH
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...COMBINED WITH WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW...SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IS RATHER LOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE WY DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL
SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS
POSSIBLE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER
BLACK HILLS INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING. THERE STILL REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY AND THE BLACK HILLS.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT NORTHERN
STREAM TROF CROSSES THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER
WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT AREA SHOULD DRY OUT OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. A DECENT
SHORTWAVE AND CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR/LIFR ST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER CENTRAL SD
TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 260511
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1111 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
WY...WITH COLD FRONT BACK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WY...AND WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD
AND WESTERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IL...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
SOUTHWEST SD. A COUPLE OF CELLS LOOK LIKE THEY COULD BE PRODUCING
SOME SMALL HAIL. OTHER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEAST
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS AS WELL. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SD TO AROUND 60 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SD
AND NORTHEAST WY.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK OF
MAIN PCPN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF WEST COAST
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
ONE DISTURBANCE IS ACROSS EASTERN WY NOW...WITH ANOTHER ONE ACROSS
SOUTHERN UT. THE BEST CHANCES AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CALLS FOR
GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF CLOSE TO A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP THROUGH
THE EVENING.

FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND MUCH OF WESTERN SD. THE HEAVIER PCPN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY LIGHTER SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS...80+ PERCENT...OVER THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
EVEN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS REMAINING AS RAIN
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...SO WILL NOT HAVE ANY MIX IN THE
FORECAST. WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.

AS DEVELOPING LOW WITHIN THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL STILL ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AS NARROWING RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. RAISED POPS TO 80+ FOR THESE AREAS.
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS RATHER LOW ON SUNDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS
INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER MONDAY AS NRN STREAM TROF AXIS
CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS EARLY TO MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LEAD TO
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS.
TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH WELL THROUGH THE 70S...AND
INTO THE 80S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR SCT IFR/LIFR STRATUS OVER MOST AREAS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SCT SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY MORNING...WITH PCPN BECOMING MORE WDSPRD
LATE TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED IN HEAVIER PCPN. CONDS WILL
IMPROVE SOME OVER THE EASTERN HALF SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
WESTERN HALF LIKELY REMAINING IFR/MVFR.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC





000
FXUS63 KUNR 260511
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1111 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
WY...WITH COLD FRONT BACK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WY...AND WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD
AND WESTERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IL...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
SOUTHWEST SD. A COUPLE OF CELLS LOOK LIKE THEY COULD BE PRODUCING
SOME SMALL HAIL. OTHER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEAST
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS AS WELL. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SD TO AROUND 60 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SD
AND NORTHEAST WY.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK OF
MAIN PCPN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF WEST COAST
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
ONE DISTURBANCE IS ACROSS EASTERN WY NOW...WITH ANOTHER ONE ACROSS
SOUTHERN UT. THE BEST CHANCES AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CALLS FOR
GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF CLOSE TO A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP THROUGH
THE EVENING.

FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND MUCH OF WESTERN SD. THE HEAVIER PCPN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY LIGHTER SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS...80+ PERCENT...OVER THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
EVEN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS REMAINING AS RAIN
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...SO WILL NOT HAVE ANY MIX IN THE
FORECAST. WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.

AS DEVELOPING LOW WITHIN THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL STILL ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AS NARROWING RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. RAISED POPS TO 80+ FOR THESE AREAS.
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS RATHER LOW ON SUNDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS
INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER MONDAY AS NRN STREAM TROF AXIS
CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS EARLY TO MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LEAD TO
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS.
TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH WELL THROUGH THE 70S...AND
INTO THE 80S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR SCT IFR/LIFR STRATUS OVER MOST AREAS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SCT SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY MORNING...WITH PCPN BECOMING MORE WDSPRD
LATE TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED IN HEAVIER PCPN. CONDS WILL
IMPROVE SOME OVER THE EASTERN HALF SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
WESTERN HALF LIKELY REMAINING IFR/MVFR.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 260511
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1111 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
WY...WITH COLD FRONT BACK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WY...AND WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD
AND WESTERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IL...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
SOUTHWEST SD. A COUPLE OF CELLS LOOK LIKE THEY COULD BE PRODUCING
SOME SMALL HAIL. OTHER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEAST
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS AS WELL. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SD TO AROUND 60 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SD
AND NORTHEAST WY.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK OF
MAIN PCPN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF WEST COAST
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
ONE DISTURBANCE IS ACROSS EASTERN WY NOW...WITH ANOTHER ONE ACROSS
SOUTHERN UT. THE BEST CHANCES AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CALLS FOR
GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF CLOSE TO A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP THROUGH
THE EVENING.

FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND MUCH OF WESTERN SD. THE HEAVIER PCPN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY LIGHTER SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS...80+ PERCENT...OVER THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
EVEN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS REMAINING AS RAIN
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...SO WILL NOT HAVE ANY MIX IN THE
FORECAST. WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.

AS DEVELOPING LOW WITHIN THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL STILL ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AS NARROWING RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. RAISED POPS TO 80+ FOR THESE AREAS.
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS RATHER LOW ON SUNDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS
INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER MONDAY AS NRN STREAM TROF AXIS
CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS EARLY TO MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LEAD TO
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS.
TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH WELL THROUGH THE 70S...AND
INTO THE 80S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR SCT IFR/LIFR STRATUS OVER MOST AREAS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SCT SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY MORNING...WITH PCPN BECOMING MORE WDSPRD
LATE TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED IN HEAVIER PCPN. CONDS WILL
IMPROVE SOME OVER THE EASTERN HALF SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
WESTERN HALF LIKELY REMAINING IFR/MVFR.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 252303
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
503 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
WY...WITH COLD FRONT BACK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WY...AND WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD
AND WESTERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IL...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
SOUTHWEST SD. A COUPLE OF CELLS LOOK LIKE THEY COULD BE PRODUCING
SOME SMALL HAIL. OTHER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEAST
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS AS WELL. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SD TO AROUND 60 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SD
AND NORTHEAST WY.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK OF
MAIN PCPN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF WEST COAST
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
ONE DISTURBANCE IS ACROSS EASTERN WY NOW...WITH ANOTHER ONE ACROSS
SOUTHERN UT. THE BEST CHANCES AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CALLS FOR
GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF CLOSE TO A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP THROUGH
THE EVENING.

FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND MUCH OF WESTERN SD. THE HEAVIER PCPN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY LIGHTER SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS...80+ PERCENT...OVER THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
EVEN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS REMAINING AS RAIN
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...SO WILL NOT HAVE ANY MIX IN THE
FORECAST. WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.

AS DEVELOPING LOW WITHIN THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL STILL ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AS NARROWING RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. RAISED POPS TO 80+ FOR THESE AREAS.
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS RATHER LOW ON SUNDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS
INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER MONDAY AS NRN STREAM TROF AXIS
CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS EARLY TO MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LEAD TO
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS.
TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH WELL THROUGH THE 70S...AND
INTO THE 80S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 502 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR/LIFR STRATUS OVER MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH PCPN BECOMING MORE WDSPRD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED NEAR HEAVIER PCPN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC





000
FXUS63 KUNR 252303
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
503 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
WY...WITH COLD FRONT BACK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WY...AND WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD
AND WESTERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IL...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
SOUTHWEST SD. A COUPLE OF CELLS LOOK LIKE THEY COULD BE PRODUCING
SOME SMALL HAIL. OTHER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEAST
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS AS WELL. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SD TO AROUND 60 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SD
AND NORTHEAST WY.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK OF
MAIN PCPN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF WEST COAST
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
ONE DISTURBANCE IS ACROSS EASTERN WY NOW...WITH ANOTHER ONE ACROSS
SOUTHERN UT. THE BEST CHANCES AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CALLS FOR
GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF CLOSE TO A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP THROUGH
THE EVENING.

FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND MUCH OF WESTERN SD. THE HEAVIER PCPN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY LIGHTER SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS...80+ PERCENT...OVER THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
EVEN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS REMAINING AS RAIN
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...SO WILL NOT HAVE ANY MIX IN THE
FORECAST. WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.

AS DEVELOPING LOW WITHIN THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL STILL ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AS NARROWING RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. RAISED POPS TO 80+ FOR THESE AREAS.
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS RATHER LOW ON SUNDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS
INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER MONDAY AS NRN STREAM TROF AXIS
CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS EARLY TO MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LEAD TO
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS.
TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH WELL THROUGH THE 70S...AND
INTO THE 80S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 502 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR/LIFR STRATUS OVER MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH PCPN BECOMING MORE WDSPRD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED NEAR HEAVIER PCPN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 252303
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
503 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
WY...WITH COLD FRONT BACK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WY...AND WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD
AND WESTERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IL...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
SOUTHWEST SD. A COUPLE OF CELLS LOOK LIKE THEY COULD BE PRODUCING
SOME SMALL HAIL. OTHER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEAST
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS AS WELL. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SD TO AROUND 60 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SD
AND NORTHEAST WY.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK OF
MAIN PCPN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF WEST COAST
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
ONE DISTURBANCE IS ACROSS EASTERN WY NOW...WITH ANOTHER ONE ACROSS
SOUTHERN UT. THE BEST CHANCES AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CALLS FOR
GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF CLOSE TO A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP THROUGH
THE EVENING.

FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND MUCH OF WESTERN SD. THE HEAVIER PCPN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY LIGHTER SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS...80+ PERCENT...OVER THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
EVEN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS REMAINING AS RAIN
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...SO WILL NOT HAVE ANY MIX IN THE
FORECAST. WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.

AS DEVELOPING LOW WITHIN THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL STILL ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AS NARROWING RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. RAISED POPS TO 80+ FOR THESE AREAS.
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS RATHER LOW ON SUNDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS
INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER MONDAY AS NRN STREAM TROF AXIS
CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS EARLY TO MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LEAD TO
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS.
TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH WELL THROUGH THE 70S...AND
INTO THE 80S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 502 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR/LIFR STRATUS OVER MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH PCPN BECOMING MORE WDSPRD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED NEAR HEAVIER PCPN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 252303
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
503 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
WY...WITH COLD FRONT BACK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WY...AND WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD
AND WESTERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IL...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
SOUTHWEST SD. A COUPLE OF CELLS LOOK LIKE THEY COULD BE PRODUCING
SOME SMALL HAIL. OTHER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEAST
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS AS WELL. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SD TO AROUND 60 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SD
AND NORTHEAST WY.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK OF
MAIN PCPN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF WEST COAST
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
ONE DISTURBANCE IS ACROSS EASTERN WY NOW...WITH ANOTHER ONE ACROSS
SOUTHERN UT. THE BEST CHANCES AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CALLS FOR
GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF CLOSE TO A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP THROUGH
THE EVENING.

FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND MUCH OF WESTERN SD. THE HEAVIER PCPN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY LIGHTER SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS...80+ PERCENT...OVER THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
EVEN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS REMAINING AS RAIN
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...SO WILL NOT HAVE ANY MIX IN THE
FORECAST. WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.

AS DEVELOPING LOW WITHIN THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL STILL ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AS NARROWING RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. RAISED POPS TO 80+ FOR THESE AREAS.
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS RATHER LOW ON SUNDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS
INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER MONDAY AS NRN STREAM TROF AXIS
CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS EARLY TO MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LEAD TO
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS.
TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH WELL THROUGH THE 70S...AND
INTO THE 80S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 502 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR/LIFR STRATUS OVER MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH PCPN BECOMING MORE WDSPRD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED NEAR HEAVIER PCPN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC





000
FXUS63 KUNR 252107
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
307 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
WY...WITH COLD FRONT BACK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WY...AND WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD
AND WESTERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IL...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
SOUTHWEST SD. A COUPLE OF CELLS LOOK LIKE THEY COULD BE PRODUCING
SOME SMALL HAIL. OTHER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEAST
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS AS WELL. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SD TO AROUND 60 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SD
AND NORTHEAST WY.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK OF
MAIN PCPN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF WEST COAST
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
ONE DISTURBANCE IS ACROSS EASTERN WY NOW...WITH ANOTHER ONE ACROSS
SOUTHERN UT. THE BEST CHANCES AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CALLS FOR
GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF CLOSE TO A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP THROUGH
THE EVENING.

FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND MUCH OF WESTERN SD. THE HEAVIER PCPN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY LIGHTER SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS...80+ PERCENT...OVER THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
EVEN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS REMAINING AS RAIN
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...SO WILL NOT HAVE ANY MIX IN THE
FORECAST. WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.

AS DEVELOPING LOW WITHIN THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL STILL ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AS NARROWING RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. RAISED POPS TO 80+ FOR THESE AREAS.
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS RATHER LOW ON SUNDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS
INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER MONDAY AS NRN STREAM TROF AXIS
CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS EARLY TO MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LEAD TO
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS.
TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH WELL THROUGH THE 70S...AND
INTO THE 80S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR STRATUS OVER MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH PCPN BECOMING MORE WDSPRD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED NEAR HEAVIER PCPN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 252107
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
307 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
WY...WITH COLD FRONT BACK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WY...AND WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD
AND WESTERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IL...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
SOUTHWEST SD. A COUPLE OF CELLS LOOK LIKE THEY COULD BE PRODUCING
SOME SMALL HAIL. OTHER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEAST
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS AS WELL. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SD TO AROUND 60 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SD
AND NORTHEAST WY.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK OF
MAIN PCPN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF WEST COAST
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
ONE DISTURBANCE IS ACROSS EASTERN WY NOW...WITH ANOTHER ONE ACROSS
SOUTHERN UT. THE BEST CHANCES AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CALLS FOR
GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF CLOSE TO A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP THROUGH
THE EVENING.

FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND MUCH OF WESTERN SD. THE HEAVIER PCPN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY LIGHTER SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS...80+ PERCENT...OVER THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
EVEN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS REMAINING AS RAIN
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...SO WILL NOT HAVE ANY MIX IN THE
FORECAST. WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.

AS DEVELOPING LOW WITHIN THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL STILL ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AS NARROWING RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. RAISED POPS TO 80+ FOR THESE AREAS.
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS RATHER LOW ON SUNDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS
INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER MONDAY AS NRN STREAM TROF AXIS
CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS EARLY TO MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LEAD TO
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS.
TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH WELL THROUGH THE 70S...AND
INTO THE 80S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR STRATUS OVER MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH PCPN BECOMING MORE WDSPRD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED NEAR HEAVIER PCPN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 251706
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1106 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
WY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD AND WESTERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MO...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOUTHWEST
FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...BUT A NARROW AREA OF CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IS IN
PLACE OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD FOR THE TIME BEING.
EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS HAS BACKED WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS...WITH AREAS OF FOG STILL LINGERING...
THOUGH VISIBILITIES ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY RIGHT NOW IS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WY...EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO MT...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPS AT 15Z RANGED FROM THE
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES OVER THE SD PLAINS...TO 50S OVER A GOOD
CHUNK OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS.

CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND OR FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE
ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE THE EARLIEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WY...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...
THAT WILL HELP TO FUEL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES
STILL LOOK TO BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATED
TO GET A STRONGER STORM OR TWO WITH SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST SD.

HAVE UPDATED TO LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
SD PLAINS...WHERE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS...MOSTLY TO LOWER THEM A BIT AND PUSH
OFF THE TIMING TO LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. OTHER TWEAKS WERE MADE TO SKY
COVER..DEW POINTS...AND RH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH CLOSED LOW UNDER THE RIDGE IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ADDITIONAL
CLOSED LOW IS SPINNING OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND WITH TROF EXTENDING
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. SKIES ARE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO NEBRASKA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS
NORTH FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM ARE MAINLY
IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
WINDS ARE LIGHT.

FOR TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE IN
WYOMING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND ELONGATE INTO AN INVERTED TROF
ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING/DAKOTAS STATE LINES BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES LIFT OUT OF THE WESTERN TROF AND CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
BLACK HILLS. BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES
TO CROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES...BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA LOOK TO BE IN THE QUARTER INCH TO HALF AN INCH RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY...WESTERN UPPER TROF SHIFTS EAST AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF THE TROF AND CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
INVERTED SURFACE TROF ALSO REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTH DAKOTA. AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH TO HALF AN INCH LOOKS
LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS
WHERE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LESS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO 60. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S. NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE BLACK HILLS...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER CLOSED-LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA BY
MONDAY...BUT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BRINGING ONCE LAST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES FROM TIME TO TIME. LEE TROUGH
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE TROUGH
INTERSECTS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR/LIFR VSBYS ACROSS FAR WRN SD WILL IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR EARLY
THIS AFTN...WHILE IFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WRN SD.
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH IFR
CIGS/VSBYS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...JOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 251706
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1106 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
WY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD AND WESTERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MO...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOUTHWEST
FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...BUT A NARROW AREA OF CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IS IN
PLACE OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD FOR THE TIME BEING.
EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS HAS BACKED WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS...WITH AREAS OF FOG STILL LINGERING...
THOUGH VISIBILITIES ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY RIGHT NOW IS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WY...EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO MT...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPS AT 15Z RANGED FROM THE
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES OVER THE SD PLAINS...TO 50S OVER A GOOD
CHUNK OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS.

CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND OR FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE
ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE THE EARLIEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WY...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...
THAT WILL HELP TO FUEL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES
STILL LOOK TO BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATED
TO GET A STRONGER STORM OR TWO WITH SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST SD.

HAVE UPDATED TO LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
SD PLAINS...WHERE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS...MOSTLY TO LOWER THEM A BIT AND PUSH
OFF THE TIMING TO LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. OTHER TWEAKS WERE MADE TO SKY
COVER..DEW POINTS...AND RH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH CLOSED LOW UNDER THE RIDGE IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ADDITIONAL
CLOSED LOW IS SPINNING OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND WITH TROF EXTENDING
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. SKIES ARE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO NEBRASKA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS
NORTH FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM ARE MAINLY
IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
WINDS ARE LIGHT.

FOR TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE IN
WYOMING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND ELONGATE INTO AN INVERTED TROF
ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING/DAKOTAS STATE LINES BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES LIFT OUT OF THE WESTERN TROF AND CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
BLACK HILLS. BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES
TO CROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES...BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA LOOK TO BE IN THE QUARTER INCH TO HALF AN INCH RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY...WESTERN UPPER TROF SHIFTS EAST AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF THE TROF AND CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
INVERTED SURFACE TROF ALSO REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTH DAKOTA. AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH TO HALF AN INCH LOOKS
LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS
WHERE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LESS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO 60. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S. NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE BLACK HILLS...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER CLOSED-LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA BY
MONDAY...BUT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BRINGING ONCE LAST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES FROM TIME TO TIME. LEE TROUGH
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE TROUGH
INTERSECTS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR/LIFR VSBYS ACROSS FAR WRN SD WILL IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR EARLY
THIS AFTN...WHILE IFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WRN SD.
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH IFR
CIGS/VSBYS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 251603
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1003 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
WY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD AND WESTERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MO...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOUTHWEST
FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...BUT A NARROW AREA OF CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IS IN
PLACE OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD FOR THE TIME BEING.
EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS HAS BACKED WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS...WITH AREAS OF FOG STILL LINGERING...
THOUGH VISIBILITIES ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY RIGHT NOW IS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WY...EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO MT...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPS AT 15Z RANGED FROM THE
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES OVER THE SD PLAINS...TO 50S OVER A GOOD
CHUNK OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS.

CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND OR FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE
ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE THE EARLIEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WY...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...
THAT WILL HELP TO FUEL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES
STILL LOOK TO BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATED
TO GET A STRONGER STORM OR TWO WITH SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST SD.

HAVE UPDATED TO LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
SD PLAINS...WHERE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS...MOSTLY TO LOWER THEM A BIT AND PUSH
OFF THE TIMING TO LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. OTHER TWEAKS WERE MADE TO SKY
COVER..DEW POINTS...AND RH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH CLOSED LOW UNDER THE RIDGE IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ADDITIONAL
CLOSED LOW IS SPINNING OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND WITH TROF EXTENDING
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. SKIES ARE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO NEBRASKA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS
NORTH FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM ARE MAINLY
IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
WINDS ARE LIGHT.

FOR TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE IN
WYOMING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND ELONGATE INTO AN INVERTED TROF
ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING/DAKOTAS STATE LINES BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES LIFT OUT OF THE WESTERN TROF AND CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
BLACK HILLS. BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES
TO CROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES...BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA LOOK TO BE IN THE QUARTER INCH TO HALF AN INCH RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY...WESTERN UPPER TROF SHIFTS EAST AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF THE TROF AND CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
INVERTED SURFACE TROF ALSO REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTH DAKOTA. AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH TO HALF AN INCH LOOKS
LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS
WHERE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LESS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO 60. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S. NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE BLACK HILLS...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER CLOSED-LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA BY
MONDAY...BUT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BRINGING ONCE LAST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES FROM TIME TO TIME. LEE TROUGH
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE TROUGH
INTERSECTS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM THIS MORNING WILL PROMOTE
MVFR/IFR ST DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS DUE TO BR OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
DIURNAL EFFECTS. SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS IFR CIGS/VSBYS
EXPECTED WITH THE RATHER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 251603
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1003 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
WY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD AND WESTERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MO...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOUTHWEST
FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...BUT A NARROW AREA OF CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IS IN
PLACE OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD FOR THE TIME BEING.
EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS HAS BACKED WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS...WITH AREAS OF FOG STILL LINGERING...
THOUGH VISIBILITIES ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY RIGHT NOW IS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WY...EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO MT...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPS AT 15Z RANGED FROM THE
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES OVER THE SD PLAINS...TO 50S OVER A GOOD
CHUNK OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS.

CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND OR FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE
ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE THE EARLIEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WY...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...
THAT WILL HELP TO FUEL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES
STILL LOOK TO BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATED
TO GET A STRONGER STORM OR TWO WITH SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST SD.

HAVE UPDATED TO LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
SD PLAINS...WHERE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS...MOSTLY TO LOWER THEM A BIT AND PUSH
OFF THE TIMING TO LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. OTHER TWEAKS WERE MADE TO SKY
COVER..DEW POINTS...AND RH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH CLOSED LOW UNDER THE RIDGE IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ADDITIONAL
CLOSED LOW IS SPINNING OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND WITH TROF EXTENDING
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. SKIES ARE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO NEBRASKA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS
NORTH FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM ARE MAINLY
IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
WINDS ARE LIGHT.

FOR TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE IN
WYOMING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND ELONGATE INTO AN INVERTED TROF
ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING/DAKOTAS STATE LINES BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES LIFT OUT OF THE WESTERN TROF AND CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
BLACK HILLS. BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES
TO CROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES...BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA LOOK TO BE IN THE QUARTER INCH TO HALF AN INCH RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY...WESTERN UPPER TROF SHIFTS EAST AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF THE TROF AND CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
INVERTED SURFACE TROF ALSO REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTH DAKOTA. AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH TO HALF AN INCH LOOKS
LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS
WHERE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LESS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO 60. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S. NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE BLACK HILLS...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER CLOSED-LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA BY
MONDAY...BUT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BRINGING ONCE LAST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES FROM TIME TO TIME. LEE TROUGH
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE TROUGH
INTERSECTS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM THIS MORNING WILL PROMOTE
MVFR/IFR ST DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS DUE TO BR OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
DIURNAL EFFECTS. SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS IFR CIGS/VSBYS
EXPECTED WITH THE RATHER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 250927
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
327 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH CLOSED LOW UNDER THE RIDGE IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ADDITIONAL
CLOSED LOW IS SPINNING OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND WITH TROF EXTENDING
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. SKIES ARE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO NEBRASKA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS
NORTH FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM ARE MAINLY
IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
WINDS ARE LIGHT.

FOR TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE IN
WYOMING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND ELONGATE INTO AN INVERTED TROF
ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING/DAKOTAS STATE LINES BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES LIFT OUT OF THE WESTERN TROF AND CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
BLACK HILLS. BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES
TO CROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES...BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA LOOK TO BE IN THE QUARTER INCH TO HALF AN INCH RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY...WESTERN UPPER TROF SHIFTS EAST AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF THE TROF AND CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
INVERTED SURFACE TROF ALSO REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTH DAKOTA. AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH TO HALF AN INCH LOOKS
LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS
WHERE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LESS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO 60. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S. NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE BLACK HILLS...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER CLOSED-LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA BY
MONDAY...BUT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BRINGING ONCE LAST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES FROM TIME TO TIME. LEE TROUGH
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE TROUGH
INTERSECTS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM THIS MORNING WILL PROMOTE
MVFR/IFR ST DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS DUE TO BR OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
DIURNAL EFFECTS. SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS IFR CIGS/VSBYS
EXPECTED WITH THE RATHER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 250927
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
327 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH CLOSED LOW UNDER THE RIDGE IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ADDITIONAL
CLOSED LOW IS SPINNING OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND WITH TROF EXTENDING
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. SKIES ARE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO NEBRASKA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS
NORTH FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM ARE MAINLY
IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
WINDS ARE LIGHT.

FOR TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE IN
WYOMING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND ELONGATE INTO AN INVERTED TROF
ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING/DAKOTAS STATE LINES BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES LIFT OUT OF THE WESTERN TROF AND CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
BLACK HILLS. BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES
TO CROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES...BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA LOOK TO BE IN THE QUARTER INCH TO HALF AN INCH RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY...WESTERN UPPER TROF SHIFTS EAST AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF THE TROF AND CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
INVERTED SURFACE TROF ALSO REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTH DAKOTA. AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH TO HALF AN INCH LOOKS
LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS
WHERE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LESS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO 60. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S. NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE BLACK HILLS...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER CLOSED-LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA BY
MONDAY...BUT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BRINGING ONCE LAST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES FROM TIME TO TIME. LEE TROUGH
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE TROUGH
INTERSECTS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM THIS MORNING WILL PROMOTE
MVFR/IFR ST DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS DUE TO BR OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
DIURNAL EFFECTS. SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS IFR CIGS/VSBYS
EXPECTED WITH THE RATHER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 250510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND THAN NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM IN THE MID 70S. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

FOR TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PUSHES THOUGH BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. STORMS OVER THE HILLS AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING SHOULD
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...IN THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A
STRONGER STORM/MARGINALLY SEVERE IN THIS AREA AS WELL THIS EVENING.
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT EXPECT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO POSSIBLY LINGER THROUGH 14Z SATURDAY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...BEST CHANCES GENERALLY OVER THE BLACK
HILLS INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS
WELL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A STRONG
STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS ON SUNDAY AND
DRIFT INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON MONDAY. AS THE FLOW SPLITS...WEAKER
NRN STREAM TROF SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY. VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

WDSPRD STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SD PLAINS
EARLY SAT MORNING AS MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. PATCHY FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON THE SD PLAINS SAT MORNING. VFR CONDS EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST OF NE WY THROUGH LATE SAT MORNING...WITH SOME MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE LATE SAT MORNING BEHIND A SFC TROUGH. CIGS SHOULD
TREND HIGHER WITH DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING ALL PLACES SAT AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...EXPECTED SHRA MAY PRODUCE SCT MVFR CONDS THROUGH MUCH OF
SAT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 250510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND THAN NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM IN THE MID 70S. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

FOR TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PUSHES THOUGH BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. STORMS OVER THE HILLS AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING SHOULD
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...IN THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A
STRONGER STORM/MARGINALLY SEVERE IN THIS AREA AS WELL THIS EVENING.
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT EXPECT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO POSSIBLY LINGER THROUGH 14Z SATURDAY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...BEST CHANCES GENERALLY OVER THE BLACK
HILLS INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS
WELL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A STRONG
STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS ON SUNDAY AND
DRIFT INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON MONDAY. AS THE FLOW SPLITS...WEAKER
NRN STREAM TROF SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY. VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

WDSPRD STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SD PLAINS
EARLY SAT MORNING AS MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. PATCHY FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON THE SD PLAINS SAT MORNING. VFR CONDS EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST OF NE WY THROUGH LATE SAT MORNING...WITH SOME MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE LATE SAT MORNING BEHIND A SFC TROUGH. CIGS SHOULD
TREND HIGHER WITH DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING ALL PLACES SAT AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...EXPECTED SHRA MAY PRODUCE SCT MVFR CONDS THROUGH MUCH OF
SAT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC





000
FXUS63 KUNR 250510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND THAN NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM IN THE MID 70S. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

FOR TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PUSHES THOUGH BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. STORMS OVER THE HILLS AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING SHOULD
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...IN THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A
STRONGER STORM/MARGINALLY SEVERE IN THIS AREA AS WELL THIS EVENING.
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT EXPECT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO POSSIBLY LINGER THROUGH 14Z SATURDAY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...BEST CHANCES GENERALLY OVER THE BLACK
HILLS INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS
WELL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A STRONG
STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS ON SUNDAY AND
DRIFT INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON MONDAY. AS THE FLOW SPLITS...WEAKER
NRN STREAM TROF SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY. VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

WDSPRD STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SD PLAINS
EARLY SAT MORNING AS MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. PATCHY FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON THE SD PLAINS SAT MORNING. VFR CONDS EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST OF NE WY THROUGH LATE SAT MORNING...WITH SOME MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE LATE SAT MORNING BEHIND A SFC TROUGH. CIGS SHOULD
TREND HIGHER WITH DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING ALL PLACES SAT AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...EXPECTED SHRA MAY PRODUCE SCT MVFR CONDS THROUGH MUCH OF
SAT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 250510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND THAN NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM IN THE MID 70S. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

FOR TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PUSHES THOUGH BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. STORMS OVER THE HILLS AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING SHOULD
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...IN THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A
STRONGER STORM/MARGINALLY SEVERE IN THIS AREA AS WELL THIS EVENING.
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT EXPECT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO POSSIBLY LINGER THROUGH 14Z SATURDAY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...BEST CHANCES GENERALLY OVER THE BLACK
HILLS INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS
WELL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A STRONG
STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS ON SUNDAY AND
DRIFT INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON MONDAY. AS THE FLOW SPLITS...WEAKER
NRN STREAM TROF SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY. VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

WDSPRD STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SD PLAINS
EARLY SAT MORNING AS MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. PATCHY FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON THE SD PLAINS SAT MORNING. VFR CONDS EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST OF NE WY THROUGH LATE SAT MORNING...WITH SOME MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE LATE SAT MORNING BEHIND A SFC TROUGH. CIGS SHOULD
TREND HIGHER WITH DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING ALL PLACES SAT AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...EXPECTED SHRA MAY PRODUCE SCT MVFR CONDS THROUGH MUCH OF
SAT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC





000
FXUS63 KUNR 242324
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
524 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND THAN NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM IN THE MID 70S. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

FOR TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PUSHES THOUGH BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. STORMS OVER THE HILLS AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING SHOULD
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...IN THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A
STRONGER STORM/MARGINALLY SEVERE IN THIS AREA AS WELL THIS EVENING.
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT EXPECT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO POSSIBLY LINGER THROUGH 14Z SATURDAY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...BEST CHANCES GENERALLY OVER THE BLACK
HILLS INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS
WELL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A STRONG
STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS ON SUNDAY AND
DRIFT INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON MONDAY. AS THE FLOW SPLITS...WEAKER
NRN STREAM TROF SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY. VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 519 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SCT SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD.
MVFR CONDS WITH THE PCPN. RATHER WDSPRD STRATUS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SD PLAINS AFT MIDNIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. VFR CONDS EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST OF NE WY THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE SAT MORNING BEHIND A SFC TROUGH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC





000
FXUS63 KUNR 242324
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
524 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND THAN NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM IN THE MID 70S. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

FOR TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PUSHES THOUGH BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. STORMS OVER THE HILLS AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING SHOULD
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...IN THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A
STRONGER STORM/MARGINALLY SEVERE IN THIS AREA AS WELL THIS EVENING.
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT EXPECT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO POSSIBLY LINGER THROUGH 14Z SATURDAY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...BEST CHANCES GENERALLY OVER THE BLACK
HILLS INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS
WELL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A STRONG
STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS ON SUNDAY AND
DRIFT INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON MONDAY. AS THE FLOW SPLITS...WEAKER
NRN STREAM TROF SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY. VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 519 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SCT SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL SD.
MVFR CONDS WITH THE PCPN. RATHER WDSPRD STRATUS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SD PLAINS AFT MIDNIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. VFR CONDS EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST OF NE WY THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE SAT MORNING BEHIND A SFC TROUGH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 241958
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
158 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND THAN NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM IN THE MID 70S. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

FOR TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PUSHES THOUGH BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. STORMS OVER THE HILLS AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING SHOULD
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...IN THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A
STRONGER STORM/MARGINALLY SEVERE IN THIS AREA AS WELL THIS EVENING.
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT EXPECT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO POSSIBLY LINGER THROUGH 14Z SATURDAY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...BEST CHANCES GENERALLY OVER THE BLACK
HILLS INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS
WELL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A STRONG
STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS ON SUNDAY AND
DRIFT INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON MONDAY. AS THE FLOW SPLITS...WEAKER
NRN STREAM TROF SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY. VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SCT SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE BLKHLS EWD INTO CNTRL SD. MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH THE PCPN...WITH
LCL IFR CONDITIONS IN THE BLKHLS INVOF HEAVIER STORMS. RATHER
WDSPRD STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AFT
MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 241958
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
158 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND THAN NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM IN THE MID 70S. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

FOR TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PUSHES THOUGH BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. STORMS OVER THE HILLS AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING SHOULD
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...IN THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A
STRONGER STORM/MARGINALLY SEVERE IN THIS AREA AS WELL THIS EVENING.
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT EXPECT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO POSSIBLY LINGER THROUGH 14Z SATURDAY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...BEST CHANCES GENERALLY OVER THE BLACK
HILLS INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS
WELL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A STRONG
STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS ON SUNDAY AND
DRIFT INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON MONDAY. AS THE FLOW SPLITS...WEAKER
NRN STREAM TROF SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY. VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SCT SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE BLKHLS EWD INTO CNTRL SD. MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH THE PCPN...WITH
LCL IFR CONDITIONS IN THE BLKHLS INVOF HEAVIER STORMS. RATHER
WDSPRD STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AFT
MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 241958
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
158 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND THAN NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM IN THE MID 70S. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

FOR TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PUSHES THOUGH BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. STORMS OVER THE HILLS AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING SHOULD
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...IN THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A
STRONGER STORM/MARGINALLY SEVERE IN THIS AREA AS WELL THIS EVENING.
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT EXPECT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO POSSIBLY LINGER THROUGH 14Z SATURDAY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...BEST CHANCES GENERALLY OVER THE BLACK
HILLS INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS
WELL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A STRONG
STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS ON SUNDAY AND
DRIFT INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON MONDAY. AS THE FLOW SPLITS...WEAKER
NRN STREAM TROF SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY. VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SCT SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE BLKHLS EWD INTO CNTRL SD. MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH THE PCPN...WITH
LCL IFR CONDITIONS IN THE BLKHLS INVOF HEAVIER STORMS. RATHER
WDSPRD STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AFT
MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 241958
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
158 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND THAN NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM IN THE MID 70S. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

FOR TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PUSHES THOUGH BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. STORMS OVER THE HILLS AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING SHOULD
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...IN THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A
STRONGER STORM/MARGINALLY SEVERE IN THIS AREA AS WELL THIS EVENING.
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT EXPECT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO POSSIBLY LINGER THROUGH 14Z SATURDAY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...BEST CHANCES GENERALLY OVER THE BLACK
HILLS INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS
WELL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A STRONG
STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS ON SUNDAY AND
DRIFT INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON MONDAY. AS THE FLOW SPLITS...WEAKER
NRN STREAM TROF SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY. VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SCT SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE BLKHLS EWD INTO CNTRL SD. MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH THE PCPN...WITH
LCL IFR CONDITIONS IN THE BLKHLS INVOF HEAVIER STORMS. RATHER
WDSPRD STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AFT
MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 241709
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1109 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND THAN NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY WARMED ABOVE FORECAST
HIGHS...THUS HAVE UPDATED TEMPS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO
REFLECT THIS TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH DEEP TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. CLOSED
LOW IS ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THE MOMENT WITH ANOTHER
NEARLY CLOSED LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS WEST SOUTHWEST WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CROSSING THE AREA. RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT
WITH JUST A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK REMAINING. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE RESIDES OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
40S AND 50S AT 3AM...WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FOR TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AS WESTERN
TROF SLIDES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MAJORITY OF MODELS ARE
SHOWING A VERY WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY MID DAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES...BEST CHANCES GENERALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND
SOUTHWESTERN SD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
SD. A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROF THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL IN THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS.

TONIGHT...WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY WILL
PHASE WITH THE LARGER TROF SWINGING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND
PUSH WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT QUICKLY EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY KEEP A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS GOING OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S.

ON SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CROSSES THE CASCADES AS NEXT
TROF DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH BEST
CHANCES FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH THE EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS. CLOUDY SKIES AND PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE IN SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

GFS/GEM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. AS FLOW SPLITS...WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM
TROF SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY. DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY WITH WEAK
FORCING AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SCT SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE BLKHLS EWD INTO CNTRL SD. LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH THE PCPN.
RATHER WDSPRD STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
AFT MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLS
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 241709
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1109 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND THAN NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY WARMED ABOVE FORECAST
HIGHS...THUS HAVE UPDATED TEMPS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO
REFLECT THIS TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH DEEP TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. CLOSED
LOW IS ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THE MOMENT WITH ANOTHER
NEARLY CLOSED LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS WEST SOUTHWEST WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CROSSING THE AREA. RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT
WITH JUST A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK REMAINING. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE RESIDES OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
40S AND 50S AT 3AM...WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FOR TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AS WESTERN
TROF SLIDES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MAJORITY OF MODELS ARE
SHOWING A VERY WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY MID DAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES...BEST CHANCES GENERALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND
SOUTHWESTERN SD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
SD. A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROF THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL IN THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS.

TONIGHT...WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY WILL
PHASE WITH THE LARGER TROF SWINGING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND
PUSH WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT QUICKLY EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY KEEP A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS GOING OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S.

ON SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CROSSES THE CASCADES AS NEXT
TROF DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH BEST
CHANCES FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH THE EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS. CLOUDY SKIES AND PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE IN SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

GFS/GEM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. AS FLOW SPLITS...WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM
TROF SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY. DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY WITH WEAK
FORCING AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SCT SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE BLKHLS EWD INTO CNTRL SD. LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH THE PCPN.
RATHER WDSPRD STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
AFT MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLS
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 241709
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1109 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND THAN NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY WARMED ABOVE FORECAST
HIGHS...THUS HAVE UPDATED TEMPS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO
REFLECT THIS TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH DEEP TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. CLOSED
LOW IS ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THE MOMENT WITH ANOTHER
NEARLY CLOSED LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS WEST SOUTHWEST WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CROSSING THE AREA. RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT
WITH JUST A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK REMAINING. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE RESIDES OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
40S AND 50S AT 3AM...WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FOR TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AS WESTERN
TROF SLIDES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MAJORITY OF MODELS ARE
SHOWING A VERY WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY MID DAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES...BEST CHANCES GENERALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND
SOUTHWESTERN SD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
SD. A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROF THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL IN THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS.

TONIGHT...WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY WILL
PHASE WITH THE LARGER TROF SWINGING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND
PUSH WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT QUICKLY EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY KEEP A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS GOING OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S.

ON SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CROSSES THE CASCADES AS NEXT
TROF DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH BEST
CHANCES FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH THE EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS. CLOUDY SKIES AND PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE IN SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

GFS/GEM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. AS FLOW SPLITS...WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM
TROF SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY. DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY WITH WEAK
FORCING AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SCT SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE BLKHLS EWD INTO CNTRL SD. LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH THE PCPN.
RATHER WDSPRD STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
AFT MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLS
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 241709
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1109 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND THAN NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY WARMED ABOVE FORECAST
HIGHS...THUS HAVE UPDATED TEMPS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO
REFLECT THIS TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH DEEP TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. CLOSED
LOW IS ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THE MOMENT WITH ANOTHER
NEARLY CLOSED LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS WEST SOUTHWEST WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CROSSING THE AREA. RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT
WITH JUST A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK REMAINING. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE RESIDES OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
40S AND 50S AT 3AM...WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FOR TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AS WESTERN
TROF SLIDES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MAJORITY OF MODELS ARE
SHOWING A VERY WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY MID DAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES...BEST CHANCES GENERALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND
SOUTHWESTERN SD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
SD. A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROF THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL IN THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS.

TONIGHT...WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY WILL
PHASE WITH THE LARGER TROF SWINGING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND
PUSH WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT QUICKLY EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY KEEP A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS GOING OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S.

ON SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CROSSES THE CASCADES AS NEXT
TROF DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH BEST
CHANCES FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH THE EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS. CLOUDY SKIES AND PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE IN SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

GFS/GEM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. AS FLOW SPLITS...WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM
TROF SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY. DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY WITH WEAK
FORCING AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SCT SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE BLKHLS EWD INTO CNTRL SD. LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH THE PCPN.
RATHER WDSPRD STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
AFT MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLS
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 241006
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
406 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH DEEP TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. CLOSED
LOW IS ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THE MOMENT WITH ANOTHER
NEARLY CLOSED LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS WEST SOUTHWEST WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CROSSING THE AREA. RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT
WITH JUST A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK REMAINING. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE RESIDES OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
40S AND 50S AT 3AM...WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FOR TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AS WESTERN
TROF SLIDES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MAJORITY OF MODELS ARE
SHOWING A VERY WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY MID DAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES...BEST CHANCES GENERALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND
SOUTHWESTERN SD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
SD. A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROF THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL IN THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS.

TONIGHT...WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY WILL
PHASE WITH THE LARGER TROF SWINGING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND
PUSH WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT QUICKLY EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY KEEP A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS GOING OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S.

ON SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CROSSES THE CASCADES AS NEXT
TROF DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH BEST
CHANCES FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH THE EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS. CLOUDY SKIES AND PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE IN SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

GFS/GEM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. AS FLOW SPLITS...WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM
TROF SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY. DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY WITH WEAK
FORCING AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7




000
FXUS63 KUNR 241006
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
406 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH DEEP TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. CLOSED
LOW IS ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THE MOMENT WITH ANOTHER
NEARLY CLOSED LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS WEST SOUTHWEST WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CROSSING THE AREA. RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT
WITH JUST A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK REMAINING. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE RESIDES OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
40S AND 50S AT 3AM...WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FOR TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AS WESTERN
TROF SLIDES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MAJORITY OF MODELS ARE
SHOWING A VERY WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY MID DAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES...BEST CHANCES GENERALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND
SOUTHWESTERN SD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
SD. A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROF THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL IN THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS.

TONIGHT...WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY WILL
PHASE WITH THE LARGER TROF SWINGING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND
PUSH WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT QUICKLY EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY KEEP A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS GOING OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S.

ON SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CROSSES THE CASCADES AS NEXT
TROF DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH BEST
CHANCES FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH THE EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS. CLOUDY SKIES AND PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE IN SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

GFS/GEM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. AS FLOW SPLITS...WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM
TROF SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY. DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY WITH WEAK
FORCING AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7





000
FXUS63 KUNR 240521
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1121 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE KEYING ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS REGION AND WEST CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY. SO FAR TODAY ONE LONE
PERSISTENT CELL HAS DRIFTED SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN HILLS AND
MAINTAINED IT/S INTENSITY FOR A FEW HOURS.  THIS WAS UNDER LESS THAN
IDEA CONDITIONS OF TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S WITH TD/S JUST IN
THE UPPER 30S.  AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA /WHERE A DEEPENING SECONDARY SURFACE
LOW IS SHOW IN ADVANCE OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE/.  THE CLEARING SKIES
HAVE PROMOTED SOME DESTABILIZATION OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  CURRENT LAPS DATA SUGGESTS UPWARDS TO 500 J/KG OF
ML CAPE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE STATE AND WITHIN THE
HILLS.  STORMS THAT FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY PUSH THE STRONG
ENVELOPE...WITH GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT...HOWEVER THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AHEAD OF THE FEATURE...MIDLEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL PROMOTE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA.  THE SHORT TERM MODELS PROG WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT...SO WILL
CONTINUE A THUNDER MENTION INTO MIDNIGHT...THEREAFTER...WILL CARRY A
SHOWER MENTION EAST AS THE LLJ VEERS TOWARD THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE.  WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS GOING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST.  THE BETTER FORCING SEEMS TO FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN HALF/S/ OF THE CWA...POP CHANCES ARE HIGHEST IN THESE
LOCATIONS.  PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH SOLAR DRIVEN
DESTABILIZATION /AND WEAK COOLING ALOFT/ FOR A THUNDER MENTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.  SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER IS
ONCE AGAIN NOT ANTICIPATED.

TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ARE A PRODUCT OF THE CONSALL
BLEND...WHICH INDICATE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.  ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
FRIDAY WILL PROMOTE SIMILAR HIGHS...RANGING IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
OVER THE SOUTH...MID 60S FOR THE NORTH...AND 50S OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

VERY ACTIVE NEAR TERM PERIOD WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
CENTRAL PLAINS AND AFFECTING NORTHERN PLAINS WEATHER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND THEN NEXT SYSTEM...A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS CLOSING OFF AND MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL COMMENCE
WITH RIDGE BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRY.

SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THEN WITH HEATING OF THE DAY
AND COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ISOLATED
THUNDER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY EVENING. STRONGER WAVE MOVES OUT
OF BOTTOM OF TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
TROUGH CLOSING OFF...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. SHOWERS CONTINUED
OVER NIGHT.

SUNDAY SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EAST INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH AND COOLER MORE
STABLE AIR KEEPING RAINSHOWERS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.

RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH WARMER DRIER AIR.
HIGHS IN THE 60S. WEDNESDAY WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. LCL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WFO UNR/JACOBS
LONG TERM...WFO UNR/POWER
AVIATION...7





000
FXUS63 KUNR 240521
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1121 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE KEYING ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS REGION AND WEST CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY. SO FAR TODAY ONE LONE
PERSISTENT CELL HAS DRIFTED SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN HILLS AND
MAINTAINED IT/S INTENSITY FOR A FEW HOURS.  THIS WAS UNDER LESS THAN
IDEA CONDITIONS OF TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S WITH TD/S JUST IN
THE UPPER 30S.  AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA /WHERE A DEEPENING SECONDARY SURFACE
LOW IS SHOW IN ADVANCE OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE/.  THE CLEARING SKIES
HAVE PROMOTED SOME DESTABILIZATION OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  CURRENT LAPS DATA SUGGESTS UPWARDS TO 500 J/KG OF
ML CAPE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE STATE AND WITHIN THE
HILLS.  STORMS THAT FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY PUSH THE STRONG
ENVELOPE...WITH GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT...HOWEVER THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AHEAD OF THE FEATURE...MIDLEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL PROMOTE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA.  THE SHORT TERM MODELS PROG WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT...SO WILL
CONTINUE A THUNDER MENTION INTO MIDNIGHT...THEREAFTER...WILL CARRY A
SHOWER MENTION EAST AS THE LLJ VEERS TOWARD THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE.  WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS GOING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST.  THE BETTER FORCING SEEMS TO FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN HALF/S/ OF THE CWA...POP CHANCES ARE HIGHEST IN THESE
LOCATIONS.  PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH SOLAR DRIVEN
DESTABILIZATION /AND WEAK COOLING ALOFT/ FOR A THUNDER MENTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.  SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER IS
ONCE AGAIN NOT ANTICIPATED.

TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ARE A PRODUCT OF THE CONSALL
BLEND...WHICH INDICATE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.  ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
FRIDAY WILL PROMOTE SIMILAR HIGHS...RANGING IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
OVER THE SOUTH...MID 60S FOR THE NORTH...AND 50S OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

VERY ACTIVE NEAR TERM PERIOD WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
CENTRAL PLAINS AND AFFECTING NORTHERN PLAINS WEATHER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND THEN NEXT SYSTEM...A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS CLOSING OFF AND MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL COMMENCE
WITH RIDGE BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRY.

SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THEN WITH HEATING OF THE DAY
AND COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ISOLATED
THUNDER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY EVENING. STRONGER WAVE MOVES OUT
OF BOTTOM OF TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
TROUGH CLOSING OFF...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. SHOWERS CONTINUED
OVER NIGHT.

SUNDAY SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EAST INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH AND COOLER MORE
STABLE AIR KEEPING RAINSHOWERS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.

RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH WARMER DRIER AIR.
HIGHS IN THE 60S. WEDNESDAY WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. LCL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WFO UNR/JACOBS
LONG TERM...WFO UNR/POWER
AVIATION...7




000
FXUS63 KUNR 240002
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
602 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE KEYING ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS REGION AND WEST CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY. SO FAR TODAY ONE LONE
PERSISTENT CELL HAS DRIFTED SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN HILLS AND
MAINTAINED IT/S INTENSITY FOR A FEW HOURS.  THIS WAS UNDER LESS THAN
IDEA CONDITIONS OF TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S WITH TD/S JUST IN
THE UPPER 30S.  AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA /WHERE A DEEPENING SECONDARY SURFACE
LOW IS SHOW IN ADVANCE OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE/.  THE CLEARING SKIES
HAVE PROMOTED SOME DESTABILIZATION OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  CURRENT LAPS DATA SUGGESTS UPWARDS TO 500 J/KG OF
ML CAPE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE STATE AND WITHIN THE
HILLS.  STORMS THAT FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY PUSH THE STRONG
ENVELOPE...WITH GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT...HOWEVER THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AHEAD OF THE FEATURE...MIDLEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL PROMOTE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA.  THE SHORT TERM MODELS PROG WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT...SO WILL
CONTINUE A THUNDER MENTION INTO MIDNIGHT...THEREAFTER...WILL CARRY A
SHOWER MENTION EAST AS THE LLJ VEERS TOWARD THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE.  WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS GOING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST.  THE BETTER FORCING SEEMS TO FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN HALF/S/ OF THE CWA...POP CHANCES ARE HIGHEST IN THESE
LOCATIONS.  PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH SOLAR DRIVEN
DESTABILIZATION /AND WEAK COOLING ALOFT/ FOR A THUNDER MENTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.  SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER IS
ONCE AGAIN NOT ANTICIPATED.

TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ARE A PRODUCT OF THE CONSALL
BLEND...WHICH INDICATE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.  ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
FRIDAY WILL PROMOTE SIMILAR HIGHS...RANGING IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
OVER THE SOUTH...MID 60S FOR THE NORTH...AND 50S OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

VERY ACTIVE NEAR TERM PERIOD WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
CENTRAL PLAINS AND AFFECTING NORTHERN PLAINS WEATHER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND THEN NEXT SYSTEM...A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS CLOSING OFF AND MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL COMMENCE
WITH RIDGE BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRY.

SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THEN WITH HEATING OF THE DAY
AND COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ISOLATED
THUNDER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY EVENING. STRONGER WAVE MOVES OUT
OF BOTTOM OF TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
TROUGH CLOSING OFF...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. SHOWERS CONTINUED
OVER NIGHT.

SUNDAY SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EAST INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH AND COOLER MORE
STABLE AIR KEEPING RAINSHOWERS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.

RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH WARMER DRIER AIR.
HIGHS IN THE 60S. WEDNESDAY WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 557 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST. STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. OVERALL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR
CIGS IN STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WFO UNR/JACOBS
LONG TERM...WFO UNR/POWER
AVIATION...MLS





000
FXUS63 KUNR 240002
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
602 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE KEYING ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS REGION AND WEST CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY. SO FAR TODAY ONE LONE
PERSISTENT CELL HAS DRIFTED SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN HILLS AND
MAINTAINED IT/S INTENSITY FOR A FEW HOURS.  THIS WAS UNDER LESS THAN
IDEA CONDITIONS OF TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S WITH TD/S JUST IN
THE UPPER 30S.  AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA /WHERE A DEEPENING SECONDARY SURFACE
LOW IS SHOW IN ADVANCE OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE/.  THE CLEARING SKIES
HAVE PROMOTED SOME DESTABILIZATION OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  CURRENT LAPS DATA SUGGESTS UPWARDS TO 500 J/KG OF
ML CAPE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE STATE AND WITHIN THE
HILLS.  STORMS THAT FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY PUSH THE STRONG
ENVELOPE...WITH GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT...HOWEVER THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AHEAD OF THE FEATURE...MIDLEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL PROMOTE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA.  THE SHORT TERM MODELS PROG WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT...SO WILL
CONTINUE A THUNDER MENTION INTO MIDNIGHT...THEREAFTER...WILL CARRY A
SHOWER MENTION EAST AS THE LLJ VEERS TOWARD THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE.  WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS GOING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST.  THE BETTER FORCING SEEMS TO FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN HALF/S/ OF THE CWA...POP CHANCES ARE HIGHEST IN THESE
LOCATIONS.  PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH SOLAR DRIVEN
DESTABILIZATION /AND WEAK COOLING ALOFT/ FOR A THUNDER MENTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.  SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER IS
ONCE AGAIN NOT ANTICIPATED.

TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ARE A PRODUCT OF THE CONSALL
BLEND...WHICH INDICATE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.  ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
FRIDAY WILL PROMOTE SIMILAR HIGHS...RANGING IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
OVER THE SOUTH...MID 60S FOR THE NORTH...AND 50S OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

VERY ACTIVE NEAR TERM PERIOD WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
CENTRAL PLAINS AND AFFECTING NORTHERN PLAINS WEATHER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND THEN NEXT SYSTEM...A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS CLOSING OFF AND MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL COMMENCE
WITH RIDGE BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRY.

SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THEN WITH HEATING OF THE DAY
AND COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ISOLATED
THUNDER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY EVENING. STRONGER WAVE MOVES OUT
OF BOTTOM OF TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
TROUGH CLOSING OFF...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. SHOWERS CONTINUED
OVER NIGHT.

SUNDAY SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EAST INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH AND COOLER MORE
STABLE AIR KEEPING RAINSHOWERS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.

RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH WARMER DRIER AIR.
HIGHS IN THE 60S. WEDNESDAY WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 557 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST. STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. OVERALL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR
CIGS IN STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WFO UNR/JACOBS
LONG TERM...WFO UNR/POWER
AVIATION...MLS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 240002
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
602 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE KEYING ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS REGION AND WEST CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY. SO FAR TODAY ONE LONE
PERSISTENT CELL HAS DRIFTED SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN HILLS AND
MAINTAINED IT/S INTENSITY FOR A FEW HOURS.  THIS WAS UNDER LESS THAN
IDEA CONDITIONS OF TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S WITH TD/S JUST IN
THE UPPER 30S.  AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA /WHERE A DEEPENING SECONDARY SURFACE
LOW IS SHOW IN ADVANCE OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE/.  THE CLEARING SKIES
HAVE PROMOTED SOME DESTABILIZATION OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  CURRENT LAPS DATA SUGGESTS UPWARDS TO 500 J/KG OF
ML CAPE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE STATE AND WITHIN THE
HILLS.  STORMS THAT FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY PUSH THE STRONG
ENVELOPE...WITH GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT...HOWEVER THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AHEAD OF THE FEATURE...MIDLEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL PROMOTE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA.  THE SHORT TERM MODELS PROG WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT...SO WILL
CONTINUE A THUNDER MENTION INTO MIDNIGHT...THEREAFTER...WILL CARRY A
SHOWER MENTION EAST AS THE LLJ VEERS TOWARD THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE.  WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS GOING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST.  THE BETTER FORCING SEEMS TO FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN HALF/S/ OF THE CWA...POP CHANCES ARE HIGHEST IN THESE
LOCATIONS.  PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH SOLAR DRIVEN
DESTABILIZATION /AND WEAK COOLING ALOFT/ FOR A THUNDER MENTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.  SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER IS
ONCE AGAIN NOT ANTICIPATED.

TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ARE A PRODUCT OF THE CONSALL
BLEND...WHICH INDICATE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.  ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
FRIDAY WILL PROMOTE SIMILAR HIGHS...RANGING IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
OVER THE SOUTH...MID 60S FOR THE NORTH...AND 50S OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

VERY ACTIVE NEAR TERM PERIOD WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
CENTRAL PLAINS AND AFFECTING NORTHERN PLAINS WEATHER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND THEN NEXT SYSTEM...A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS CLOSING OFF AND MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL COMMENCE
WITH RIDGE BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRY.

SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THEN WITH HEATING OF THE DAY
AND COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ISOLATED
THUNDER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY EVENING. STRONGER WAVE MOVES OUT
OF BOTTOM OF TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
TROUGH CLOSING OFF...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. SHOWERS CONTINUED
OVER NIGHT.

SUNDAY SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EAST INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH AND COOLER MORE
STABLE AIR KEEPING RAINSHOWERS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.

RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH WARMER DRIER AIR.
HIGHS IN THE 60S. WEDNESDAY WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 557 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST. STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. OVERALL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR
CIGS IN STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WFO UNR/JACOBS
LONG TERM...WFO UNR/POWER
AVIATION...MLS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 232039
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
239 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE KEYING ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS REGION AND WEST CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY. SO FAR TODAY ONE LONE
PERSISTENT CELL HAS DRIFTED SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN HILLS AND
MAINTAINED IT/S INTENSITY FOR A FEW HOURS.  THIS WAS UNDER LESS THAN
IDEA CONDITIONS OF TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S WITH TD/S JUST IN
THE UPPER 30S.  AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA /WHERE A DEEPENING SECONDARY SURFACE
LOW IS SHOW IN ADVANCE OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE/.  THE CLEARING SKIES
HAVE PROMOTED SOME DESTABILIZATION OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  CURRENT LAPS DATA SUGGESTS UPWARDS TO 500 J/KG OF
ML CAPE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE STATE AND WITHIN THE
HILLS.  STORMS THAT FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY PUSH THE STRONG
ENVELOPE...WITH GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT...HOWEVER THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AHEAD OF THE FEATURE...MIDLEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL PROMOTE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA.  THE SHORT TERM MODELS PROG WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT...SO WILL
CONTINUE A THUNDER MENTION INTO MIDNIGHT...THEREAFTER...WILL CARRY A
SHOWER MENTION EAST AS THE LLJ VEERS TOWARD THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE.  WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS GOING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST.  THE BETTER FORCING SEEMS TO FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN HALF/S/ OF THE CWA...POP CHANCES ARE HIGHEST IN THESE
LOCATIONS.  PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH SOLAR DRIVEN
DESTABILIZATION /AND WEAK COOLING ALOFT/ FOR A THUNDER MENTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.  SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER IS
ONCE AGAIN NOT ANTICIPATED.

TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ARE A PRODUCT OF THE CONSALL
BLEND...WHICH INDICATE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.  ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
FRIDAY WILL PROMOTE SIMILAR HIGHS...RANGING IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
OVER THE SOUTH...MID 60S FOR THE NORTH...AND 50S OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

VERY ACTIVE NEAR TERM PERIOD WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
CENTRAL PLAINS AND AFFECTING NORTHERN PLAINS WEATHER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND THEN NEXT SYSTEM...A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS CLOSING OFF AND MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL COMMENCE
WITH RIDGE BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRY.

SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THEN WITH HEATING OF THE DAY
AND COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ISOLATED
THUNDER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY EVENING. STRONGER WAVE MOVES OUT
OF BOTTOM OF TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
TROUGH CLOSING OFF...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. SHOWERS CONTINUED
OVER NIGHT.

SUNDAY SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EAST INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH AND COOLER MORE
STABLE AIR KEEPING RAINSHOWERS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.

RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH WARMER DRIER AIR.
HIGHS IN THE 60S. WEDNESDAY WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE FOCUSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWN TO DEVELOP
OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND POSSIBLY NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED AND
FAIRLY WEAK...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF GUSTY
ERRATIC WIND AND HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT THE KRAP TERMINAL
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY. THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT WILL BE KEY FOR THE KRAP TERMINAL AS A LATER ARRIVAL
WOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND POSSIBLY MVFR
STRATUS. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE LEANING AGAINST STRATUS AT KRAP.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WFO UNR/JACOBS
LONG TERM...WFO UNR/POWER
AVIATION...WFO UNR/JACOBS







000
FXUS63 KUNR 232039
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
239 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE KEYING ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS REGION AND WEST CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY. SO FAR TODAY ONE LONE
PERSISTENT CELL HAS DRIFTED SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN HILLS AND
MAINTAINED IT/S INTENSITY FOR A FEW HOURS.  THIS WAS UNDER LESS THAN
IDEA CONDITIONS OF TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S WITH TD/S JUST IN
THE UPPER 30S.  AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA /WHERE A DEEPENING SECONDARY SURFACE
LOW IS SHOW IN ADVANCE OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE/.  THE CLEARING SKIES
HAVE PROMOTED SOME DESTABILIZATION OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  CURRENT LAPS DATA SUGGESTS UPWARDS TO 500 J/KG OF
ML CAPE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE STATE AND WITHIN THE
HILLS.  STORMS THAT FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY PUSH THE STRONG
ENVELOPE...WITH GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT...HOWEVER THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AHEAD OF THE FEATURE...MIDLEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL PROMOTE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA.  THE SHORT TERM MODELS PROG WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT...SO WILL
CONTINUE A THUNDER MENTION INTO MIDNIGHT...THEREAFTER...WILL CARRY A
SHOWER MENTION EAST AS THE LLJ VEERS TOWARD THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE.  WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS GOING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST.  THE BETTER FORCING SEEMS TO FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN HALF/S/ OF THE CWA...POP CHANCES ARE HIGHEST IN THESE
LOCATIONS.  PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH SOLAR DRIVEN
DESTABILIZATION /AND WEAK COOLING ALOFT/ FOR A THUNDER MENTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.  SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER IS
ONCE AGAIN NOT ANTICIPATED.

TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ARE A PRODUCT OF THE CONSALL
BLEND...WHICH INDICATE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.  ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
FRIDAY WILL PROMOTE SIMILAR HIGHS...RANGING IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
OVER THE SOUTH...MID 60S FOR THE NORTH...AND 50S OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

VERY ACTIVE NEAR TERM PERIOD WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
CENTRAL PLAINS AND AFFECTING NORTHERN PLAINS WEATHER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND THEN NEXT SYSTEM...A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS CLOSING OFF AND MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL COMMENCE
WITH RIDGE BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRY.

SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THEN WITH HEATING OF THE DAY
AND COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ISOLATED
THUNDER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY EVENING. STRONGER WAVE MOVES OUT
OF BOTTOM OF TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
TROUGH CLOSING OFF...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. SHOWERS CONTINUED
OVER NIGHT.

SUNDAY SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EAST INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH AND COOLER MORE
STABLE AIR KEEPING RAINSHOWERS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.

RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH WARMER DRIER AIR.
HIGHS IN THE 60S. WEDNESDAY WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE FOCUSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWN TO DEVELOP
OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND POSSIBLY NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED AND
FAIRLY WEAK...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF GUSTY
ERRATIC WIND AND HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT THE KRAP TERMINAL
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY. THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT WILL BE KEY FOR THE KRAP TERMINAL AS A LATER ARRIVAL
WOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND POSSIBLY MVFR
STRATUS. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE LEANING AGAINST STRATUS AT KRAP.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WFO UNR/JACOBS
LONG TERM...WFO UNR/POWER
AVIATION...WFO UNR/JACOBS








000
FXUS63 KUNR 231728
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1127 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A BRIEF UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF A
ISOLATED SPRINKLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HARDING COUNTY EAST THROUGH
PERKINS COUNTY. BOWMAN RADAR SHOWING 20-25 DBZ...WITH THE CURRENT
HRRR FOLLOWING SUIT. TD DEPRESSIONS ARE FAIRLY LARGE AT THE
SURFACE...AND BASED OFF THE 12Z UNR SOUNDING...FEEL THAT A GOOD
AMOUNT OF EVAPORATION WOULD OCCUR UNDER THESE SHOWERS...THUS ONLY
SPRINKLES FOR NOW. OTHERWISE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS GOOD
AND REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 332 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
AB...WITH FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ID. WARM
FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MT INTO EASTERN WY.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE TROF REMAINING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...WITH WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MT AND ID. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR NOW...BUT
CLOUDS TO THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOW SHOWERS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST MT...MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. TEMPS ARE MOSTLY
IN THE 30S...EXCEPT FOR 40S IN THE GILLETTE AREA WHERE WINDS HAVE
STAYED BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH MOST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS ELSEWHERE
ARE MOSTLY FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH
OCCASIONALLY STRONGER WINDS OVER NORTHWEST SD.

AS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TO THE WEST...THIS WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHORT RANGE MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN...WITH MOSTLY SMALL DIFFERENCES
ON TIMING AND TRACK OF SHORTWAVES AND AREAS OF PCPN. THE BEST
CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
DURING PEAK HEATING...BUT AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THE MORNING HOURS IN SOME
AREAS...AS UPPER ENERGY PASSES ACROSS.

FOR TODAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE
WEST...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WARM
FRONT WILL MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY...WHILE COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST WY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THE BLACK
HILLS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST WY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
60S AND LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON...WARMEST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE THE MOST SUN IS EXPECTED. INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
WESTERN SD BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
COULD GET GOING EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE
BLACK HILLS. THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
AN AREA OF 500 TO AROUND 1000 J/KG CAPE OVER SOUTHWESTERN SD THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DECENT SHEAR OVER
SOUTHWEST SD AS WELL. A COUPLE OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING IN THAT
AREA. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
LATE IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL KEEP LOW POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS.

LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MORE CLOUD COVER...BUT
STILL IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES...BEST CHANCES GENERALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS INTO
SOUTHWESTERN SD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A STRONG STORM OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 332 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

GFS/GEM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER TROF DIGGING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. UPPER
FLOW SPLITS...WITH LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM TROF SLIDING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. MODELS
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A GOOD PCPN POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN HIGHER ELEVATION OF THE BLACK HILLS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE FOCUSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWN TO DEVELOP
OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND POSSIBLY NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED AND
FAIRLY WEAK...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF GUSTY
ERRATIC WIND AND HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT THE KRAP TERMINAL
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY. THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT WILL BE KEY FOR THE KRAP TERMINAL AS A LATER ARRIVAL
WOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND POSSIBLY MVFR
STRATUS. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE LEANING AGAINST STRATUS AT KRAP.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WFO UNR/JACOBS
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...WFO UNR/JACOBS









000
FXUS63 KUNR 231728
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1127 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A BRIEF UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF A
ISOLATED SPRINKLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HARDING COUNTY EAST THROUGH
PERKINS COUNTY. BOWMAN RADAR SHOWING 20-25 DBZ...WITH THE CURRENT
HRRR FOLLOWING SUIT. TD DEPRESSIONS ARE FAIRLY LARGE AT THE
SURFACE...AND BASED OFF THE 12Z UNR SOUNDING...FEEL THAT A GOOD
AMOUNT OF EVAPORATION WOULD OCCUR UNDER THESE SHOWERS...THUS ONLY
SPRINKLES FOR NOW. OTHERWISE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS GOOD
AND REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 332 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
AB...WITH FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ID. WARM
FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MT INTO EASTERN WY.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE TROF REMAINING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...WITH WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MT AND ID. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR NOW...BUT
CLOUDS TO THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOW SHOWERS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST MT...MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. TEMPS ARE MOSTLY
IN THE 30S...EXCEPT FOR 40S IN THE GILLETTE AREA WHERE WINDS HAVE
STAYED BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH MOST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS ELSEWHERE
ARE MOSTLY FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH
OCCASIONALLY STRONGER WINDS OVER NORTHWEST SD.

AS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TO THE WEST...THIS WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHORT RANGE MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN...WITH MOSTLY SMALL DIFFERENCES
ON TIMING AND TRACK OF SHORTWAVES AND AREAS OF PCPN. THE BEST
CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
DURING PEAK HEATING...BUT AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THE MORNING HOURS IN SOME
AREAS...AS UPPER ENERGY PASSES ACROSS.

FOR TODAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE
WEST...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WARM
FRONT WILL MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY...WHILE COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST WY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THE BLACK
HILLS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST WY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
60S AND LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON...WARMEST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE THE MOST SUN IS EXPECTED. INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
WESTERN SD BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
COULD GET GOING EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE
BLACK HILLS. THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
AN AREA OF 500 TO AROUND 1000 J/KG CAPE OVER SOUTHWESTERN SD THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DECENT SHEAR OVER
SOUTHWEST SD AS WELL. A COUPLE OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING IN THAT
AREA. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
LATE IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL KEEP LOW POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS.

LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MORE CLOUD COVER...BUT
STILL IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES...BEST CHANCES GENERALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS INTO
SOUTHWESTERN SD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A STRONG STORM OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 332 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

GFS/GEM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER TROF DIGGING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. UPPER
FLOW SPLITS...WITH LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM TROF SLIDING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. MODELS
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A GOOD PCPN POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN HIGHER ELEVATION OF THE BLACK HILLS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE FOCUSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWN TO DEVELOP
OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND POSSIBLY NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED AND
FAIRLY WEAK...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF GUSTY
ERRATIC WIND AND HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT THE KRAP TERMINAL
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY. THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT WILL BE KEY FOR THE KRAP TERMINAL AS A LATER ARRIVAL
WOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND POSSIBLY MVFR
STRATUS. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE LEANING AGAINST STRATUS AT KRAP.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WFO UNR/JACOBS
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...WFO UNR/JACOBS










    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities