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000
FXUS63 KUNR 301118
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
518 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 313 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS CROSSING THE WRN CONUS...WITH UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE NRN PLAINS ATTM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
OVER CNTRL CANADA TO THE NRN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EWD
TODAY WITH STRONG RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
BREEZY SE WINDS WILL SET UP ACROSS THE WRN SD PLAINS THROUGH THE
DAY. UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SWRLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WITH A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING OVER
CNTRL/ERN MT. A STRONG UPPER WAVE OVER ID INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL
MOVE E/NE THROUGH THE DAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR STORMS LATER THIS
AFTN INTO THE EVNG. THE DAY WILL START OFF QUIET WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...THEN PRECIP DEVELOPING WEST OF THE CWA WILL BEING MOVING
INTO NE WY AND FAR WRN SD THIS AFTN. STRONG CAP WILL LIMIT STORM
DEVELOPMENT TO MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN. SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE BLKHLS BUT THINK THE NRN BLKHLS WILL HAVE THE
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP GIVEN THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT. SURFACE LOW
WILL CROSS THE NRN CWA INTO THE EVENING AS THE STRONG WAVE CROSSES
THE REGION...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH
INCREASING SHEAR THIS EVENING OVER NE WY/NW SD...SOME SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER NW SD WHERE MLCAPE IS
1000-1500 J/KG. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS. STORMS WILL END/PUSH EAST OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST.

A QUICK BREAK IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES. PRECIP WILL CROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
AS AN UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HAVE INCREASED
POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS OVER NE WY AS
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE W/NW. TEMPS OVER NE WY
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE 60S...WHILE WRN SD REACHES THE 70S.
PRECIP WILL END LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 313 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SHORTWAVE IN CYCLONIC FLOW PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY. WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED. UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUE/WED...WITH FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 313 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL RESULT IN LCL LIFR VSBY THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. IFR VSBY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7A







000
FXUS63 KUNR 300916
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
316 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 313 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS CROSSING THE WRN CONUS...WITH UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE NRN PLAINS ATTM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
OVER CNTRL CANADA TO THE NRN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EWD
TODAY WITH STRONG RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
BREEZY SE WINDS WILL SET UP ACROSS THE WRN SD PLAINS THROUGH THE
DAY. UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SWRLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WITH A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING OVER
CNTRL/ERN MT. A STRONG UPPER WAVE OVER ID INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL
MOVE E/NE THROUGH THE DAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR STORMS LATER THIS
AFTN INTO THE EVNG. THE DAY WILL START OFF QUIET WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...THEN PRECIP DEVELOPING WEST OF THE CWA WILL BEING MOVING
INTO NE WY AND FAR WRN SD THIS AFTN. STRONG CAP WILL LIMIT STORM
DEVELOPMENT TO MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN. SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE BLKHLS BUT THINK THE NRN BLKHLS WILL HAVE THE
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP GIVEN THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT. SURFACE LOW
WILL CROSS THE NRN CWA INTO THE EVENING AS THE STRONG WAVE CROSSES
THE REGION...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH
INCREASING SHEAR THIS EVENING OVER NE WY/NW SD...SOME SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER NW SD WHERE MLCAPE IS
1000-1500 J/KG. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS. STORMS WILL END/PUSH EAST OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST.

A QUICK BREAK IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES. PRECIP WILL CROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
AS AN UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HAVE INCREASED
POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS OVER NE WY AS
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE W/NW. TEMPS OVER NE WY
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE 60S...WHILE WRN SD REACHES THE 70S.
PRECIP WILL END LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 313 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SHORTWAVE IN CYCLONIC FLOW PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY. WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED. UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUE/WED...WITH FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 313 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LCL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z. SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. IFR
VSBY WITH THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7








000
FXUS63 KUNR 300916
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
316 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 313 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS CROSSING THE WRN CONUS...WITH UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE NRN PLAINS ATTM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
OVER CNTRL CANADA TO THE NRN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EWD
TODAY WITH STRONG RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
BREEZY SE WINDS WILL SET UP ACROSS THE WRN SD PLAINS THROUGH THE
DAY. UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SWRLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WITH A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING OVER
CNTRL/ERN MT. A STRONG UPPER WAVE OVER ID INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL
MOVE E/NE THROUGH THE DAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR STORMS LATER THIS
AFTN INTO THE EVNG. THE DAY WILL START OFF QUIET WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...THEN PRECIP DEVELOPING WEST OF THE CWA WILL BEING MOVING
INTO NE WY AND FAR WRN SD THIS AFTN. STRONG CAP WILL LIMIT STORM
DEVELOPMENT TO MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN. SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE BLKHLS BUT THINK THE NRN BLKHLS WILL HAVE THE
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP GIVEN THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT. SURFACE LOW
WILL CROSS THE NRN CWA INTO THE EVENING AS THE STRONG WAVE CROSSES
THE REGION...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH
INCREASING SHEAR THIS EVENING OVER NE WY/NW SD...SOME SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER NW SD WHERE MLCAPE IS
1000-1500 J/KG. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS. STORMS WILL END/PUSH EAST OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST.

A QUICK BREAK IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES. PRECIP WILL CROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
AS AN UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HAVE INCREASED
POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS OVER NE WY AS
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE W/NW. TEMPS OVER NE WY
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE 60S...WHILE WRN SD REACHES THE 70S.
PRECIP WILL END LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 313 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SHORTWAVE IN CYCLONIC FLOW PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY. WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED. UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUE/WED...WITH FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 313 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LCL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z. SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. IFR
VSBY WITH THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7









000
FXUS63 KUNR 300506
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1106 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MN...
WITH COOL FRONT NOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS SLOW MOVING LOW OVER SOUTHWEST IA...WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY BEHIND IT MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN INTO CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
KUDX RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM NORTH CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST SD...WITH THE STRONGEST CELL OVER THE SOUTHEAST
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED
WITH THE CELL OVER FALL RIVER COUNTY. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN
BREEZY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SD PLAINS...BUT ARE GRADUALLY
DECREASING. TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.

A UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW BRINGING
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES
IN THE NEAR TERM LOOK TO BE LATE SATURDAY AND DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE SATURDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL END
EARLY IN THE EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG ALSO LIKELY LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
50S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
THE BEST FORCING WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS EASTERN
MT AND ND LATE IN THE DAY AND EVENING. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...BRINGING WARMER AND MOISTER
AIR INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SD PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHWESTERN SD...WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO OVER 1500 J/KG BY
00Z. TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE IMPORTANT WITH REGARD TO
COVERAGE AND SCOPE OF POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AS IT STANDS
NOW...THE BEST THREAT FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SD...WHERE SHEAR WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE. THE THREAT
WILL DIMINISH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WHERE THE FORCING IS WEAKER AND
CIN COULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO KEEP STORM CHANCES TO A MINIMUM.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR
POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE ELSEWHERE DURING THE EVENING. ACTIVITY WITH THIS WAVE
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE OVERNIGHT. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST WY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA SUNDAY/MONDAY. FORCING WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AS WELL AS
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
-SHRA/-TSRA...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FAIRLY CHILLY SUNDAY GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO POKE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO WESTERN
CANADA/NORTHWEST US. AMOUNT OF AMPLIFICATION BECOMING UNCERTAIN WITH
POSSIBLE FLAT RIDGE AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS COULD BRING A FEW WIND SHIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA...BUT IN GENERAL...A WARMER/DRIER TREND IS EXPECTED AS THERMAL
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 300506
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1106 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MN...
WITH COOL FRONT NOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS SLOW MOVING LOW OVER SOUTHWEST IA...WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY BEHIND IT MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN INTO CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
KUDX RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM NORTH CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST SD...WITH THE STRONGEST CELL OVER THE SOUTHEAST
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED
WITH THE CELL OVER FALL RIVER COUNTY. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN
BREEZY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SD PLAINS...BUT ARE GRADUALLY
DECREASING. TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.

A UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW BRINGING
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES
IN THE NEAR TERM LOOK TO BE LATE SATURDAY AND DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE SATURDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL END
EARLY IN THE EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG ALSO LIKELY LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
50S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
THE BEST FORCING WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS EASTERN
MT AND ND LATE IN THE DAY AND EVENING. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...BRINGING WARMER AND MOISTER
AIR INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SD PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHWESTERN SD...WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO OVER 1500 J/KG BY
00Z. TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE IMPORTANT WITH REGARD TO
COVERAGE AND SCOPE OF POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AS IT STANDS
NOW...THE BEST THREAT FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SD...WHERE SHEAR WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE. THE THREAT
WILL DIMINISH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WHERE THE FORCING IS WEAKER AND
CIN COULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO KEEP STORM CHANCES TO A MINIMUM.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR
POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE ELSEWHERE DURING THE EVENING. ACTIVITY WITH THIS WAVE
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE OVERNIGHT. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST WY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA SUNDAY/MONDAY. FORCING WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AS WELL AS
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
-SHRA/-TSRA...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FAIRLY CHILLY SUNDAY GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO POKE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO WESTERN
CANADA/NORTHWEST US. AMOUNT OF AMPLIFICATION BECOMING UNCERTAIN WITH
POSSIBLE FLAT RIDGE AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS COULD BRING A FEW WIND SHIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA...BUT IN GENERAL...A WARMER/DRIER TREND IS EXPECTED AS THERMAL
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10








000
FXUS63 KUNR 292320
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
520 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MN...
WITH COOL FRONT NOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS SLOW MOVING LOW OVER SOUTHWEST IA...WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY BEHIND IT MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN INTO CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
KUDX RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM NORTH CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST SD...WITH THE STRONGEST CELL OVER THE SOUTHEAST
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED
WITH THE CELL OVER FALL RIVER COUNTY. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN
BREEZY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SD PLAINS...BUT ARE GRADUALLY
DECREASING. TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.

A UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW BRINGING
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES
IN THE NEAR TERM LOOK TO BE LATE SATURDAY AND DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE SATURDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL END
EARLY IN THE EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG ALSO LIKELY LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
50S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
THE BEST FORCING WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS EASTERN
MT AND ND LATE IN THE DAY AND EVENING. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...BRINGING WARMER AND MOISTER
AIR INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SD PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHWESTERN SD...WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO OVER 1500 J/KG BY
00Z. TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE IMPORTANT WITH REGARD TO
COVERAGE AND SCOPE OF POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AS IT STANDS
NOW...THE BEST THREAT FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SD...WHERE SHEAR WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE. THE THREAT
WILL DIMINISH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WHERE THE FORCING IS WEAKER AND
CIN COULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO KEEP STORM CHANCES TO A MINIMUM.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR
POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE ELSEWHERE DURING THE EVENING. ACTIVITY WITH THIS WAVE
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE OVERNIGHT. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST WY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA SUNDAY/MONDAY. FORCING WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AS WELL AS
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
-SHRA/-TSRA...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FAIRLY CHILLY SUNDAY GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO POKE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO WESTERN
CANADA/NORTHWEST US. AMOUNT OF AMPLIFICATION BECOMING UNCERTAIN WITH
POSSIBLE FLAT RIDGE AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS COULD BRING A FEW WIND SHIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA...BUT IN GENERAL...A WARMER/DRIER TREND IS EXPECTED AS THERMAL
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z SATURDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10








000
FXUS63 KUNR 292320
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
520 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MN...
WITH COOL FRONT NOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS SLOW MOVING LOW OVER SOUTHWEST IA...WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY BEHIND IT MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN INTO CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
KUDX RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM NORTH CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST SD...WITH THE STRONGEST CELL OVER THE SOUTHEAST
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED
WITH THE CELL OVER FALL RIVER COUNTY. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN
BREEZY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SD PLAINS...BUT ARE GRADUALLY
DECREASING. TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.

A UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW BRINGING
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES
IN THE NEAR TERM LOOK TO BE LATE SATURDAY AND DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE SATURDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL END
EARLY IN THE EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG ALSO LIKELY LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
50S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
THE BEST FORCING WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS EASTERN
MT AND ND LATE IN THE DAY AND EVENING. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...BRINGING WARMER AND MOISTER
AIR INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SD PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHWESTERN SD...WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO OVER 1500 J/KG BY
00Z. TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE IMPORTANT WITH REGARD TO
COVERAGE AND SCOPE OF POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AS IT STANDS
NOW...THE BEST THREAT FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SD...WHERE SHEAR WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE. THE THREAT
WILL DIMINISH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WHERE THE FORCING IS WEAKER AND
CIN COULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO KEEP STORM CHANCES TO A MINIMUM.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR
POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE ELSEWHERE DURING THE EVENING. ACTIVITY WITH THIS WAVE
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE OVERNIGHT. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST WY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA SUNDAY/MONDAY. FORCING WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AS WELL AS
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
-SHRA/-TSRA...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FAIRLY CHILLY SUNDAY GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO POKE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO WESTERN
CANADA/NORTHWEST US. AMOUNT OF AMPLIFICATION BECOMING UNCERTAIN WITH
POSSIBLE FLAT RIDGE AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS COULD BRING A FEW WIND SHIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA...BUT IN GENERAL...A WARMER/DRIER TREND IS EXPECTED AS THERMAL
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z SATURDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 292100
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
300 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MN...
WITH COOL FRONT NOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS SLOW MOVING LOW OVER SOUTHWEST IA...WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY BEHIND IT MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN INTO CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
KUDX RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM NORTH CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST SD...WITH THE STRONGEST CELL OVER THE SOUTHEAST
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED
WITH THE CELL OVER FALL RIVER COUNTY. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN
BREEZY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SD PLAINS...BUT ARE GRADUALLY
DECREASING. TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.

A UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW BRINGING
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES
IN THE NEAR TERM LOOK TO BE LATE SATURDAY AND DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE SATURDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL END
EARLY IN THE EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG ALSO LIKELY LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
50S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
THE BEST FORCING WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS EASTERN
MT AND ND LATE IN THE DAY AND EVENING. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...BRINGING WARMER AND MOISTER
AIR INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SD PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHWESTERN SD...WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO OVER 1500 J/KG BY
00Z. TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE IMPORTANT WITH REGARD TO
COVERAGE AND SCOPE OF POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AS IT STANDS
NOW...THE BEST THREAT FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SD...WHERE SHEAR WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE. THE THREAT
WILL DIMINISH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WHERE THE FORCING IS WEAKER AND
CIN COULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO KEEP STORM CHANCES TO A MINIMUM.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR
POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE ELSEWHERE DURING THE EVENING. ACTIVITY WITH THIS WAVE
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE OVERNIGHT. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST WY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA SUNDAY/MONDAY. FORCING WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AS WELL AS
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
-SHRA/-TSRA...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FAIRLY CHILLY SUNDAY GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO POKE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO WESTERN
CANADA/NORTHWEST US. AMOUNT OF AMPLIFICATION BECOMING UNCERTAIN WITH
POSSIBLE FLAT RIDGE AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS COULD BRING A FEW WIND SHIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA...BUT IN GENERAL...A WARMER/DRIER TREND IS EXPECTED AS THERMAL
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ISOLATED/SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING VIA NE/CENTRAL SD. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH
ANY -TSRA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON








000
FXUS63 KUNR 292100
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
300 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MN...
WITH COOL FRONT NOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS SLOW MOVING LOW OVER SOUTHWEST IA...WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY BEHIND IT MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN INTO CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
KUDX RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM NORTH CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST SD...WITH THE STRONGEST CELL OVER THE SOUTHEAST
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED
WITH THE CELL OVER FALL RIVER COUNTY. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN
BREEZY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SD PLAINS...BUT ARE GRADUALLY
DECREASING. TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.

A UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW BRINGING
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES
IN THE NEAR TERM LOOK TO BE LATE SATURDAY AND DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE SATURDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL END
EARLY IN THE EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG ALSO LIKELY LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
50S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
THE BEST FORCING WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS EASTERN
MT AND ND LATE IN THE DAY AND EVENING. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...BRINGING WARMER AND MOISTER
AIR INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SD PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHWESTERN SD...WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO OVER 1500 J/KG BY
00Z. TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE IMPORTANT WITH REGARD TO
COVERAGE AND SCOPE OF POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AS IT STANDS
NOW...THE BEST THREAT FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SD...WHERE SHEAR WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE. THE THREAT
WILL DIMINISH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WHERE THE FORCING IS WEAKER AND
CIN COULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO KEEP STORM CHANCES TO A MINIMUM.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR
POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE ELSEWHERE DURING THE EVENING. ACTIVITY WITH THIS WAVE
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE OVERNIGHT. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST WY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA SUNDAY/MONDAY. FORCING WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AS WELL AS
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
-SHRA/-TSRA...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FAIRLY CHILLY SUNDAY GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO POKE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO WESTERN
CANADA/NORTHWEST US. AMOUNT OF AMPLIFICATION BECOMING UNCERTAIN WITH
POSSIBLE FLAT RIDGE AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS COULD BRING A FEW WIND SHIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA...BUT IN GENERAL...A WARMER/DRIER TREND IS EXPECTED AS THERMAL
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ISOLATED/SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING VIA NE/CENTRAL SD. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH
ANY -TSRA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 291716
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1116 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
SD...WITH COOL FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SD INTO
CENTRAL WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS SLOW MOVING LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST NEB...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEHIND IT MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. KUDX RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM FAR NORTHWEST SD THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS AND ACROSS
FAR EASTERN WY. A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH
THE ACTIVITY SO FAR. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SD
PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE RAPID CITY AREA. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S.

WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE QUICKER MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY PUSH MOST...IF NOT ALL...PCPN OUT OF THE AREA BY THE
EVENING. HAVE MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO RAISE WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS
FOR LATE THIS MORNING. ALSO TWEAKED CLOUDS AND POPS CHANCES FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE ERN
DAKOTAS TO UPPER MIDWEST. ZONAL FLOW SITS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WITH
A MUCH WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSS CNTRL/ERN MT. SURROUNDING RADAR SITES
SHOWING -SHRA/TSRA CROSSING ERN MT TO NRN WY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE/PRECIP IS SLIDING SE AND IS VISIBLE ON
THE BIS/BYZ RADARS.

COLD FRONT/UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY
BRINGING CHANCES FOR -SHRA/TSRA. LATEST TIMING APPEARS TO HAVE THE
AREA OF PRECIP OVER THE BLKHLS AREA BY LATE MORNING...THE CONTINUING
EWD INTO THE WRN SD PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WRN/CNTRL SD PLAINS COULD RESULT
IN SOME STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHEAR WILL BE QUITE WEAK
SO STORM BEHAVIOR IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE PULSE LIKE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WITH COOLER TEMPS OVER NW SD/NE
WY WHERE THE FROPA OCCURS EARLIER THIS MORNING. WINDS IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME BREEZY...WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT...BUT WILL BE LIMITED TO AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE TONIGHT CLEARING OUT
PRECIP LATE TNGT TO SATURDAY MRNG. THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE PACIFIC NW TO NRN ROCKIES SATURDAY...WITH ACTIVE SW FLOW
DEVELOPING. CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL AGAIN RETURN SAT AFTN/EVNG.
GOOD INSTABILITY AND STRONG LL SHEAR OVER NW SD WILL RESULT IN
STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA SAT AFTN/EVNG. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ACTIVE/PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TRACK TO ADVECT THROUGH
THE REGION SUN...WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE LIKELY MONDAY.
TROUGH RELOADING OVER THE NE PAC TUE-WED FAVORED IN ECMWF/GFS/GEM
SOLUTIONS TUE...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TUE-WED. NO SIG
CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN VERY GOOD DETERMINISTIC
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH GEFS/NAEFS MEANS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL
SUPPORT STEEP LL LAPSE RATES OVER THE FA WITH RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE
IN PLACE. DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH BH/NE WY TERRAIN INFLUENCES
SHOULD SUPPORT SCT TO ISOLD SHRA/TS ESP SOUTH HALF OF THE FA.
REMAINED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS POP NUMBERS WITH MID RANGE CHANCE
COVERING PRECIP CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...A WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW IMPULSE
STILL INDICATED IN FORECAST MODELS MONDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A
FEW SHRA/TS...ALTHOUGH DRY PROFILES WILL LIMIT QPF AND
COVERAGE...ESP AWAY FROM THE BH. DRY CONDS EXPECTED TUE-WED WITH
MEAN DEEP LAYER RIDGING. THE NEXT NE PAC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
EJECT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WED NIGHT INTO
THUR...INTERACTING WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH. INCREASING LSA WED NIGHT
THROUGH THUR WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS...FAR NW
SAT NIGHT WITH POPS TRENDING SOUTH THROUGH THUR AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST WITH THE REFLECTED SFC WAVE. DID BUMP POPS UP TO LOW
CHANCE NW 2/3 THUR NIGHT.

COOL/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...ESP NW AREAS. WARMING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUE-THUR
MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...NW AREAS MAY SEE THE START OF A COOLING TREND
THUR AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHIFTS SE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ISOLATED -SHRA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM KD07 TO KIEN. LOCAL MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH ANY -TSRA. LOCAL MVFR CIGS MAY SNEAK INTO
NORTHEAST WY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD LIFT INTO VFR CIGS AS
HEATING CONTINUES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 291716
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1116 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
SD...WITH COOL FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SD INTO
CENTRAL WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS SLOW MOVING LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST NEB...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEHIND IT MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. KUDX RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM FAR NORTHWEST SD THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS AND ACROSS
FAR EASTERN WY. A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH
THE ACTIVITY SO FAR. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SD
PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE RAPID CITY AREA. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S.

WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE QUICKER MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY PUSH MOST...IF NOT ALL...PCPN OUT OF THE AREA BY THE
EVENING. HAVE MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO RAISE WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS
FOR LATE THIS MORNING. ALSO TWEAKED CLOUDS AND POPS CHANCES FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE ERN
DAKOTAS TO UPPER MIDWEST. ZONAL FLOW SITS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WITH
A MUCH WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSS CNTRL/ERN MT. SURROUNDING RADAR SITES
SHOWING -SHRA/TSRA CROSSING ERN MT TO NRN WY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE/PRECIP IS SLIDING SE AND IS VISIBLE ON
THE BIS/BYZ RADARS.

COLD FRONT/UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY
BRINGING CHANCES FOR -SHRA/TSRA. LATEST TIMING APPEARS TO HAVE THE
AREA OF PRECIP OVER THE BLKHLS AREA BY LATE MORNING...THE CONTINUING
EWD INTO THE WRN SD PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WRN/CNTRL SD PLAINS COULD RESULT
IN SOME STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHEAR WILL BE QUITE WEAK
SO STORM BEHAVIOR IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE PULSE LIKE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WITH COOLER TEMPS OVER NW SD/NE
WY WHERE THE FROPA OCCURS EARLIER THIS MORNING. WINDS IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME BREEZY...WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT...BUT WILL BE LIMITED TO AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE TONIGHT CLEARING OUT
PRECIP LATE TNGT TO SATURDAY MRNG. THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE PACIFIC NW TO NRN ROCKIES SATURDAY...WITH ACTIVE SW FLOW
DEVELOPING. CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL AGAIN RETURN SAT AFTN/EVNG.
GOOD INSTABILITY AND STRONG LL SHEAR OVER NW SD WILL RESULT IN
STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA SAT AFTN/EVNG. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ACTIVE/PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TRACK TO ADVECT THROUGH
THE REGION SUN...WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE LIKELY MONDAY.
TROUGH RELOADING OVER THE NE PAC TUE-WED FAVORED IN ECMWF/GFS/GEM
SOLUTIONS TUE...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TUE-WED. NO SIG
CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN VERY GOOD DETERMINISTIC
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH GEFS/NAEFS MEANS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL
SUPPORT STEEP LL LAPSE RATES OVER THE FA WITH RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE
IN PLACE. DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH BH/NE WY TERRAIN INFLUENCES
SHOULD SUPPORT SCT TO ISOLD SHRA/TS ESP SOUTH HALF OF THE FA.
REMAINED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS POP NUMBERS WITH MID RANGE CHANCE
COVERING PRECIP CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...A WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW IMPULSE
STILL INDICATED IN FORECAST MODELS MONDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A
FEW SHRA/TS...ALTHOUGH DRY PROFILES WILL LIMIT QPF AND
COVERAGE...ESP AWAY FROM THE BH. DRY CONDS EXPECTED TUE-WED WITH
MEAN DEEP LAYER RIDGING. THE NEXT NE PAC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
EJECT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WED NIGHT INTO
THUR...INTERACTING WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH. INCREASING LSA WED NIGHT
THROUGH THUR WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS...FAR NW
SAT NIGHT WITH POPS TRENDING SOUTH THROUGH THUR AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST WITH THE REFLECTED SFC WAVE. DID BUMP POPS UP TO LOW
CHANCE NW 2/3 THUR NIGHT.

COOL/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...ESP NW AREAS. WARMING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUE-THUR
MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...NW AREAS MAY SEE THE START OF A COOLING TREND
THUR AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHIFTS SE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ISOLATED -SHRA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM KD07 TO KIEN. LOCAL MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH ANY -TSRA. LOCAL MVFR CIGS MAY SNEAK INTO
NORTHEAST WY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD LIFT INTO VFR CIGS AS
HEATING CONTINUES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 291553
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
953 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
SD...WITH COOL FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SD INTO
CENTRAL WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS SLOW MOVING LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST NEB...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEHIND IT MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. KUDX RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM FAR NORTHWEST SD THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS AND ACROSS
FAR EASTERN WY. A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH
THE ACTIVITY SO FAR. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SD
PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE RAPID CITY AREA. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S.

WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE QUICKER MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY PUSH MOST...IF NOT ALL...PCPN OUT OF THE AREA BY THE
EVENING. HAVE MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO RAISE WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS
FOR LATE THIS MORNING. ALSO TWEAKED CLOUDS AND POPS CHANCES FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE ERN
DAKOTAS TO UPPER MIDWEST. ZONAL FLOW SITS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WITH
A MUCH WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSS CNTRL/ERN MT. SURROUNDING RADAR SITES
SHOWING -SHRA/TSRA CROSSING ERN MT TO NRN WY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE/PRECIP IS SLIDING SE AND IS VISIBLE ON
THE BIS/BYZ RADARS.

COLD FRONT/UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY
BRINGING CHANCES FOR -SHRA/TSRA. LATEST TIMING APPEARS TO HAVE THE
AREA OF PRECIP OVER THE BLKHLS AREA BY LATE MORNING...THE CONTINUING
EWD INTO THE WRN SD PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WRN/CNTRL SD PLAINS COULD RESULT
IN SOME STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHEAR WILL BE QUITE WEAK
SO STORM BEHAVIOR IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE PULSE LIKE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WITH COOLER TEMPS OVER NW SD/NE
WY WHERE THE FROPA OCCURS EARLIER THIS MORNING. WINDS IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME BREEZY...WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT...BUT WILL BE LIMITED TO AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE TONIGHT CLEARING OUT
PRECIP LATE TNGT TO SATURDAY MRNG. THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE PACIFIC NW TO NRN ROCKIES SATURDAY...WITH ACTIVE SW FLOW
DEVELOPING. CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL AGAIN RETURN SAT AFTN/EVNG.
GOOD INSTABILITY AND STRONG LL SHEAR OVER NW SD WILL RESULT IN
STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA SAT AFTN/EVNG. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ACTIVE/PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TRACK TO ADVECT THROUGH
THE REGION SUN...WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE LIKELY MONDAY.
TROUGH RELOADING OVER THE NE PAC TUE-WED FAVORED IN ECMWF/GFS/GEM
SOLUTIONS TUE...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TUE-WED. NO SIG
CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN VERY GOOD DETERMINISTIC
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH GEFS/NAEFS MEANS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL
SUPPORT STEEP LL LAPSE RATES OVER THE FA WITH RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE
IN PLACE. DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH BH/NE WY TERRAIN INFLUENCES
SHOULD SUPPORT SCT TO ISOLD SHRA/TS ESP SOUTH HALF OF THE FA.
REMAINED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS POP NUMBERS WITH MID RANGE CHANCE
COVERING PRECIP CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...A WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW IMPULSE
STILL INDICATED IN FORECAST MODELS MONDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A
FEW SHRA/TS...ALTHOUGH DRY PROFILES WILL LIMIT QPF AND
COVERAGE...ESP AWAY FROM THE BH. DRY CONDS EXPECTED TUE-WED WITH
MEAN DEEP LAYER RIDGING. THE NEXT NE PAC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
EJECT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WED NIGHT INTO
THUR...INTERACTING WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH. INCREASING LSA WED NIGHT
THROUGH THUR WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS...FAR NW
SAT NIGHT WITH POPS TRENDING SOUTH THROUGH THUR AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST WITH THE REFLECTED SFC WAVE. DID BUMP POPS UP TO LOW
CHANCE NW 2/3 THUR NIGHT.

COOL/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...ESP NW AREAS. WARMING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUE-THUR
MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...NW AREAS MAY SEE THE START OF A COOLING TREND
THUR AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHIFTS SE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 506 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS WILL WANE OVER WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. A BAND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND INTO WESTERN SD
THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHES EAST INTO THE
REGION. AN ISOLD MORNING TS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN NE WY. THIS SAME
IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DIURNAL HEATING...MAINLY WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD. LOCAL MVFR
CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHRA/TS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 291553
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
953 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
SD...WITH COOL FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SD INTO
CENTRAL WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS SLOW MOVING LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST NEB...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEHIND IT MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. KUDX RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM FAR NORTHWEST SD THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS AND ACROSS
FAR EASTERN WY. A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH
THE ACTIVITY SO FAR. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SD
PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE RAPID CITY AREA. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S.

WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE QUICKER MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY PUSH MOST...IF NOT ALL...PCPN OUT OF THE AREA BY THE
EVENING. HAVE MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO RAISE WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS
FOR LATE THIS MORNING. ALSO TWEAKED CLOUDS AND POPS CHANCES FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE ERN
DAKOTAS TO UPPER MIDWEST. ZONAL FLOW SITS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WITH
A MUCH WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSS CNTRL/ERN MT. SURROUNDING RADAR SITES
SHOWING -SHRA/TSRA CROSSING ERN MT TO NRN WY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE/PRECIP IS SLIDING SE AND IS VISIBLE ON
THE BIS/BYZ RADARS.

COLD FRONT/UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY
BRINGING CHANCES FOR -SHRA/TSRA. LATEST TIMING APPEARS TO HAVE THE
AREA OF PRECIP OVER THE BLKHLS AREA BY LATE MORNING...THE CONTINUING
EWD INTO THE WRN SD PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WRN/CNTRL SD PLAINS COULD RESULT
IN SOME STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHEAR WILL BE QUITE WEAK
SO STORM BEHAVIOR IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE PULSE LIKE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WITH COOLER TEMPS OVER NW SD/NE
WY WHERE THE FROPA OCCURS EARLIER THIS MORNING. WINDS IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME BREEZY...WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT...BUT WILL BE LIMITED TO AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE TONIGHT CLEARING OUT
PRECIP LATE TNGT TO SATURDAY MRNG. THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE PACIFIC NW TO NRN ROCKIES SATURDAY...WITH ACTIVE SW FLOW
DEVELOPING. CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL AGAIN RETURN SAT AFTN/EVNG.
GOOD INSTABILITY AND STRONG LL SHEAR OVER NW SD WILL RESULT IN
STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA SAT AFTN/EVNG. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ACTIVE/PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TRACK TO ADVECT THROUGH
THE REGION SUN...WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE LIKELY MONDAY.
TROUGH RELOADING OVER THE NE PAC TUE-WED FAVORED IN ECMWF/GFS/GEM
SOLUTIONS TUE...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TUE-WED. NO SIG
CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN VERY GOOD DETERMINISTIC
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH GEFS/NAEFS MEANS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL
SUPPORT STEEP LL LAPSE RATES OVER THE FA WITH RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE
IN PLACE. DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH BH/NE WY TERRAIN INFLUENCES
SHOULD SUPPORT SCT TO ISOLD SHRA/TS ESP SOUTH HALF OF THE FA.
REMAINED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS POP NUMBERS WITH MID RANGE CHANCE
COVERING PRECIP CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...A WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW IMPULSE
STILL INDICATED IN FORECAST MODELS MONDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A
FEW SHRA/TS...ALTHOUGH DRY PROFILES WILL LIMIT QPF AND
COVERAGE...ESP AWAY FROM THE BH. DRY CONDS EXPECTED TUE-WED WITH
MEAN DEEP LAYER RIDGING. THE NEXT NE PAC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
EJECT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WED NIGHT INTO
THUR...INTERACTING WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH. INCREASING LSA WED NIGHT
THROUGH THUR WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS...FAR NW
SAT NIGHT WITH POPS TRENDING SOUTH THROUGH THUR AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST WITH THE REFLECTED SFC WAVE. DID BUMP POPS UP TO LOW
CHANCE NW 2/3 THUR NIGHT.

COOL/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...ESP NW AREAS. WARMING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUE-THUR
MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...NW AREAS MAY SEE THE START OF A COOLING TREND
THUR AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHIFTS SE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 506 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS WILL WANE OVER WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. A BAND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND INTO WESTERN SD
THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHES EAST INTO THE
REGION. AN ISOLD MORNING TS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN NE WY. THIS SAME
IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DIURNAL HEATING...MAINLY WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD. LOCAL MVFR
CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHRA/TS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC








000
FXUS63 KUNR 291123
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
523 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE ERN
DAKOTAS TO UPPER MIDWEST. ZONAL FLOW SITS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WITH
A MUCH WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSS CNTRL/ERN MT. SURROUNDING RADAR SITES
SHOWING -SHRA/TSRA CROSSING ERN MT TO NRN WY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE/PRECIP IS SLIDING SE AND IS VISIBLE ON
THE BIS/BYZ RADARS.

COLD FRONT/UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY
BRINGING CHANCES FOR -SHRA/TSRA. LATEST TIMING APPEARS TO HAVE THE
AREA OF PRECIP OVER THE BLKHLS AREA BY LATE MORNING...THE CONTINUING
EWD INTO THE WRN SD PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WRN/CNTRL SD PLAINS COULD RESULT
IN SOME STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHEAR WILL BE QUITE WEAK
SO STORM BEHAVIOR IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE PULSE LIKE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WITH COOLER TEMPS OVER NW SD/NE
WY WHERE THE FROPA OCCURS EARLIER THIS MORNING. WINDS IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME BREEZY...WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT...BUT WILL BE LIMITED TO AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE TONIGHT CLEARING OUT
PRECIP LATE TNGT TO SATURDAY MRNG. THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE PACIFIC NW TO NRN ROCKIES SATURDAY...WITH ACTIVE SW FLOW
DEVELOPING. CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL AGAIN RETURN SAT AFTN/EVNG.
GOOD INSTABILITY AND STRONG LL SHEAR OVER NW SD WILL RESULT IN
STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA SAT AFTN/EVNG. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ACTIVE/PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TRACK TO ADVECT THROUGH
THE REGION SUN...WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE LIKELY MONDAY.
TROUGH RELOADING OVER THE NE PAC TUE-WED FAVORED IN ECMWF/GFS/GEM
SOLUTIONS TUE...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TUE-WED. NO SIG
CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN VERY GOOD DETERMINISTIC
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH GEFS/NAEFS MEANS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL
SUPPORT STEEP LL LAPSE RATES OVER THE FA WITH RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE
IN PLACE. DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH BH/NE WY TERRAIN INFLUENCES
SHOULD SUPPORT SCT TO ISOLD SHRA/TS ESP SOUTH HALF OF THE FA.
REMAINED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS POP NUMBERS WITH MID RANGE CHANCE
COVERING PRECIP CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...A WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW IMPULSE
STILL INDICATED IN FORECAST MODELS MONDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A
FEW SHRA/TS...ALTHOUGH DRY PROFILES WILL LIMIT QPF AND
COVERAGE...ESP AWAY FROM THE BH. DRY CONDS EXPECTED TUE-WED WITH
MEAN DEEP LAYER RIDGING. THE NEXT NE PAC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
EJECT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WED NIGHT INTO
THUR...INTERACTING WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH. INCREASING LSA WED NIGHT
THROUGH THUR WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS...FAR NW
SAT NIGHT WITH POPS TRENDING SOUTH THROUGH THUR AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST WITH THE REFLECTED SFC WAVE. DID BUMP POPS UP TO LOW
CHANCE NW 2/3 THUR NIGHT.

COOL/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...ESP NW AREAS. WARMING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUE-THUR
MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...NW AREAS MAY SEE THE START OF A COOLING TREND
THUR AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHIFTS SE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 506 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS WILL WANE OVER WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. A BAND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND INTO WESTERN SD
THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHES EAST INTO THE
REGION. AN ISOLD MORNING TS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN NE WY. THIS SAME
IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DIURNAL HEATING...MAINLY WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD. LOCAL MVFR
CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHRA/TS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 291123
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
523 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE ERN
DAKOTAS TO UPPER MIDWEST. ZONAL FLOW SITS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WITH
A MUCH WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSS CNTRL/ERN MT. SURROUNDING RADAR SITES
SHOWING -SHRA/TSRA CROSSING ERN MT TO NRN WY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE/PRECIP IS SLIDING SE AND IS VISIBLE ON
THE BIS/BYZ RADARS.

COLD FRONT/UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY
BRINGING CHANCES FOR -SHRA/TSRA. LATEST TIMING APPEARS TO HAVE THE
AREA OF PRECIP OVER THE BLKHLS AREA BY LATE MORNING...THE CONTINUING
EWD INTO THE WRN SD PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WRN/CNTRL SD PLAINS COULD RESULT
IN SOME STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHEAR WILL BE QUITE WEAK
SO STORM BEHAVIOR IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE PULSE LIKE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WITH COOLER TEMPS OVER NW SD/NE
WY WHERE THE FROPA OCCURS EARLIER THIS MORNING. WINDS IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME BREEZY...WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT...BUT WILL BE LIMITED TO AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE TONIGHT CLEARING OUT
PRECIP LATE TNGT TO SATURDAY MRNG. THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE PACIFIC NW TO NRN ROCKIES SATURDAY...WITH ACTIVE SW FLOW
DEVELOPING. CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL AGAIN RETURN SAT AFTN/EVNG.
GOOD INSTABILITY AND STRONG LL SHEAR OVER NW SD WILL RESULT IN
STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA SAT AFTN/EVNG. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ACTIVE/PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TRACK TO ADVECT THROUGH
THE REGION SUN...WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE LIKELY MONDAY.
TROUGH RELOADING OVER THE NE PAC TUE-WED FAVORED IN ECMWF/GFS/GEM
SOLUTIONS TUE...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TUE-WED. NO SIG
CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN VERY GOOD DETERMINISTIC
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH GEFS/NAEFS MEANS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL
SUPPORT STEEP LL LAPSE RATES OVER THE FA WITH RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE
IN PLACE. DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH BH/NE WY TERRAIN INFLUENCES
SHOULD SUPPORT SCT TO ISOLD SHRA/TS ESP SOUTH HALF OF THE FA.
REMAINED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS POP NUMBERS WITH MID RANGE CHANCE
COVERING PRECIP CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...A WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW IMPULSE
STILL INDICATED IN FORECAST MODELS MONDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A
FEW SHRA/TS...ALTHOUGH DRY PROFILES WILL LIMIT QPF AND
COVERAGE...ESP AWAY FROM THE BH. DRY CONDS EXPECTED TUE-WED WITH
MEAN DEEP LAYER RIDGING. THE NEXT NE PAC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
EJECT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WED NIGHT INTO
THUR...INTERACTING WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH. INCREASING LSA WED NIGHT
THROUGH THUR WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS...FAR NW
SAT NIGHT WITH POPS TRENDING SOUTH THROUGH THUR AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST WITH THE REFLECTED SFC WAVE. DID BUMP POPS UP TO LOW
CHANCE NW 2/3 THUR NIGHT.

COOL/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...ESP NW AREAS. WARMING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUE-THUR
MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...NW AREAS MAY SEE THE START OF A COOLING TREND
THUR AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHIFTS SE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 506 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS WILL WANE OVER WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. A BAND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND INTO WESTERN SD
THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHES EAST INTO THE
REGION. AN ISOLD MORNING TS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN NE WY. THIS SAME
IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DIURNAL HEATING...MAINLY WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD. LOCAL MVFR
CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHRA/TS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC








000
FXUS63 KUNR 290852
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
252 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE ERN
DAKOTAS TO UPPER MIDWEST. ZONAL FLOW SITS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WITH
A MUCH WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSS CNTRL/ERN MT. SURROUNDING RADAR SITES
SHOWING -SHRA/TSRA CROSSING ERN MT TO NRN WY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE/PRECIP IS SLIDING SE AND IS VISIBLE ON
THE BIS/BYZ RADARS.

COLD FRONT/UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY
BRINGING CHANCES FOR -SHRA/TSRA. LATEST TIMING APPEARS TO HAVE THE
AREA OF PRECIP OVER THE BLKHLS AREA BY LATE MORNING...THE CONTINUING
EWD INTO THE WRN SD PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WRN/CNTRL SD PLAINS COULD RESULT
IN SOME STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHEAR WILL BE QUITE WEAK
SO STORM BEHAVIOR IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE PULSE LIKE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WITH COOLER TEMPS OVER NW SD/NE
WY WHERE THE FROPA OCCURS EARLIER THIS MORNING. WINDS IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME BREEZY...WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT...BUT WILL BE LIMITED TO AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE TONIGHT CLEARING OUT
PRECIP LATE TNGT TO SATURDAY MRNG. THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE PACIFIC NW TO NRN ROCKIES SATURDAY...WITH ACTIVE SW FLOW
DEVELOPING. CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL AGAIN RETURN SAT AFTN/EVNG.
GOOD INSTABILITY AND STRONG LL SHEAR OVER NW SD WILL RESULT IN
STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA SAT AFTN/EVNG. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ACTIVE/PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TRACK TO ADVECT THROUGH
THE REGION SUN...WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE LIKELY MONDAY.
TROUGH RELOADING OVER THE NE PAC TUE-WED FAVORED IN ECMWF/GFS/GEM
SOLUTIONS TUE...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TUE-WED. NO SIG
CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN VERY GOOD DETERMINISTIC
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH GEFS/NAEFS MEANS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL
SUPPORT STEEP LL LAPSE RATES OVER THE FA WITH RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE
IN PLACE. DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH BH/NE WY TERRAIN INFLUENCES
SHOULD SUPPORT SCT TO ISOLD SHRA/TS ESP SOUTH HALF OF THE FA.
REMAINED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS POP NUMBERS WITH MID RANGE CHANCE
COVERING PRECIP CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...A WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW IMPULSE
STILL INDICATED IN FORECAST MODELS MONDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A
FEW SHRA/TS...ALTHOUGH DRY PROFILES WILL LIMIT QPF AND
COVERAGE...ESP AWAY FROM THE BH. DRY CONDS EXPECTED TUE-WED WITH
MEAN DEEP LAYER RIDGING. THE NEXT NE PAC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
EJECT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WED NIGHT INTO
THUR...INTERACTING WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH. INCREASING LSA WED NIGHT
THROUGH THUR WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS...FAR NW
SAT NIGHT WITH POPS TRENDING SOUTH THROUGH THUR AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST WITH THE REFLECTED SFC WAVE. DID BUMP POPS UP TO LOW
CHANCE NW 2/3 THUR NIGHT.

COOL/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...ESP NW AREAS. WARMING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUE-THUR
MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...NW AREAS MAY SEE THE START OF A COOLING TREND
THUR AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHIFTS SE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A BAND OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING LATE TONIGHT AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA ON FRIDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC








000
FXUS63 KUNR 290852
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
252 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE ERN
DAKOTAS TO UPPER MIDWEST. ZONAL FLOW SITS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WITH
A MUCH WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSS CNTRL/ERN MT. SURROUNDING RADAR SITES
SHOWING -SHRA/TSRA CROSSING ERN MT TO NRN WY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE/PRECIP IS SLIDING SE AND IS VISIBLE ON
THE BIS/BYZ RADARS.

COLD FRONT/UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY
BRINGING CHANCES FOR -SHRA/TSRA. LATEST TIMING APPEARS TO HAVE THE
AREA OF PRECIP OVER THE BLKHLS AREA BY LATE MORNING...THE CONTINUING
EWD INTO THE WRN SD PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WRN/CNTRL SD PLAINS COULD RESULT
IN SOME STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHEAR WILL BE QUITE WEAK
SO STORM BEHAVIOR IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE PULSE LIKE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WITH COOLER TEMPS OVER NW SD/NE
WY WHERE THE FROPA OCCURS EARLIER THIS MORNING. WINDS IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME BREEZY...WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT...BUT WILL BE LIMITED TO AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE TONIGHT CLEARING OUT
PRECIP LATE TNGT TO SATURDAY MRNG. THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE PACIFIC NW TO NRN ROCKIES SATURDAY...WITH ACTIVE SW FLOW
DEVELOPING. CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL AGAIN RETURN SAT AFTN/EVNG.
GOOD INSTABILITY AND STRONG LL SHEAR OVER NW SD WILL RESULT IN
STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA SAT AFTN/EVNG. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ACTIVE/PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TRACK TO ADVECT THROUGH
THE REGION SUN...WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE LIKELY MONDAY.
TROUGH RELOADING OVER THE NE PAC TUE-WED FAVORED IN ECMWF/GFS/GEM
SOLUTIONS TUE...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TUE-WED. NO SIG
CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN VERY GOOD DETERMINISTIC
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH GEFS/NAEFS MEANS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL
SUPPORT STEEP LL LAPSE RATES OVER THE FA WITH RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE
IN PLACE. DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH BH/NE WY TERRAIN INFLUENCES
SHOULD SUPPORT SCT TO ISOLD SHRA/TS ESP SOUTH HALF OF THE FA.
REMAINED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS POP NUMBERS WITH MID RANGE CHANCE
COVERING PRECIP CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...A WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW IMPULSE
STILL INDICATED IN FORECAST MODELS MONDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A
FEW SHRA/TS...ALTHOUGH DRY PROFILES WILL LIMIT QPF AND
COVERAGE...ESP AWAY FROM THE BH. DRY CONDS EXPECTED TUE-WED WITH
MEAN DEEP LAYER RIDGING. THE NEXT NE PAC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
EJECT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WED NIGHT INTO
THUR...INTERACTING WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH. INCREASING LSA WED NIGHT
THROUGH THUR WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS...FAR NW
SAT NIGHT WITH POPS TRENDING SOUTH THROUGH THUR AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST WITH THE REFLECTED SFC WAVE. DID BUMP POPS UP TO LOW
CHANCE NW 2/3 THUR NIGHT.

COOL/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...ESP NW AREAS. WARMING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUE-THUR
MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...NW AREAS MAY SEE THE START OF A COOLING TREND
THUR AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHIFTS SE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A BAND OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING LATE TONIGHT AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA ON FRIDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC









000
FXUS63 KUNR 290511
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1111 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NEB...WITH INVERTED TROF STRETCHING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SD.
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST CO...SLOWLY MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST. KUDX RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
CENTRAL SD TO FAR SOUTHWEST SD. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN SD. SKIES RANGE
FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING
FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. HAVE ADDED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS
SYSTEM IS SLOWER TO MOVE OUT THAN WAS EXPECTED. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HAVE KEPT
PATCHY FOG IN FOR MOST OF THE SD PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE...MUCH WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT ONE...WILL
MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW...BUT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS IN THE
AFTERNOON TO POSSIBLY GET A STRONG STORM OR TWO GOING. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S...WITH SOME 70S ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN SD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES OVER
THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY IN
THE EVENING AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CWA WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE
MIDWEST DURING THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ZIPS THROUGH MT INTO
ND/WY BY SATURDAY EVENING. SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
MT AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A NARROW BAND OF
1-2KJ/KG MLCAPE FROM SOUTHEAST MT INTO CENTRAL SD. 15-20M/S 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR SPREADS ACROSS NORTHWEST SD DURING PEAK HEATING. MLCIN
SHOULD BE BROKEN BY SURFACE FORCING AND LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
RESULTING IN STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A SMALL
MCS GIVEN DEVELOPING 50KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH VERY WARM READINGS
AHEAD OF THE LOW AND COOLER READINGS BEHIND THE FRONT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
SAUNTERS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BRINGING SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOWER THAN RECENT MEMORY GIVEN
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER SUNDAY
AND THEN WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHWEST US. DRIER AND
WARMER PATTERN MAY EVOLVE GIVEN THERMAL RIDGE AMPLIFICATION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A BAND OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING LATE TONIGHT AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA ON FRIDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10








000
FXUS63 KUNR 290511
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1111 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NEB...WITH INVERTED TROF STRETCHING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SD.
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST CO...SLOWLY MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST. KUDX RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
CENTRAL SD TO FAR SOUTHWEST SD. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN SD. SKIES RANGE
FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING
FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. HAVE ADDED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS
SYSTEM IS SLOWER TO MOVE OUT THAN WAS EXPECTED. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HAVE KEPT
PATCHY FOG IN FOR MOST OF THE SD PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE...MUCH WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT ONE...WILL
MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW...BUT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS IN THE
AFTERNOON TO POSSIBLY GET A STRONG STORM OR TWO GOING. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S...WITH SOME 70S ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN SD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES OVER
THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY IN
THE EVENING AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CWA WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE
MIDWEST DURING THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ZIPS THROUGH MT INTO
ND/WY BY SATURDAY EVENING. SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
MT AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A NARROW BAND OF
1-2KJ/KG MLCAPE FROM SOUTHEAST MT INTO CENTRAL SD. 15-20M/S 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR SPREADS ACROSS NORTHWEST SD DURING PEAK HEATING. MLCIN
SHOULD BE BROKEN BY SURFACE FORCING AND LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
RESULTING IN STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A SMALL
MCS GIVEN DEVELOPING 50KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH VERY WARM READINGS
AHEAD OF THE LOW AND COOLER READINGS BEHIND THE FRONT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
SAUNTERS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BRINGING SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOWER THAN RECENT MEMORY GIVEN
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER SUNDAY
AND THEN WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHWEST US. DRIER AND
WARMER PATTERN MAY EVOLVE GIVEN THERMAL RIDGE AMPLIFICATION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A BAND OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING LATE TONIGHT AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA ON FRIDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 282323
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
523 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NEB...WITH INVERTED TROF STRETCHING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SD.
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST CO...SLOWLY MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST. KUDX RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
CENTRAL SD TO FAR SOUTHWEST SD. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN SD. SKIES RANGE
FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING
FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. HAVE ADDED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS
SYSTEM IS SLOWER TO MOVE OUT THAN WAS EXPECTED. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HAVE KEPT
PATCHY FOG IN FOR MOST OF THE SD PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE...MUCH WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT ONE...WILL
MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW...BUT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS IN THE
AFTERNOON TO POSSIBLY GET A STRONG STORM OR TWO GOING. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S...WITH SOME 70S ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN SD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES OVER
THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY IN
THE EVENING AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CWA WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE
MIDWEST DURING THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ZIPS THROUGH MT INTO
ND/WY BY SATURDAY EVENING. SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
MT AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A NARROW BAND OF
1-2KJ/KG MLCAPE FROM SOUTHEAST MT INTO CENTRAL SD. 15-20M/S 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR SPREADS ACROSS NORTHWEST SD DURING PEAK HEATING. MLCIN
SHOULD BE BROKEN BY SURFACE FORCING AND LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
RESULTING IN STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A SMALL
MCS GIVEN DEVELOPING 50KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH VERY WARM READINGS
AHEAD OF THE LOW AND COOLER READINGS BEHIND THE FRONT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
SAUNTERS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BRINGING SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOWER THAN RECENT MEMORY GIVEN
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER SUNDAY
AND THEN WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHWEST US. DRIER AND
WARMER PATTERN MAY EVOLVE GIVEN THERMAL RIDGE AMPLIFICATION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

SCATTERED -SHRA ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM KMGB TO KCDR WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THIS EVENING...EXITING THE AREA COMPLETELY
LATER THIS EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST ALSO. BEHIND THESE FEATURES...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ON THE SD PLAINS LATER TONIGHT WHERE LOCAL MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
FOG MAY OCCUR.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10








000
FXUS63 KUNR 282323
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
523 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NEB...WITH INVERTED TROF STRETCHING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SD.
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST CO...SLOWLY MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST. KUDX RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
CENTRAL SD TO FAR SOUTHWEST SD. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN SD. SKIES RANGE
FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING
FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. HAVE ADDED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS
SYSTEM IS SLOWER TO MOVE OUT THAN WAS EXPECTED. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HAVE KEPT
PATCHY FOG IN FOR MOST OF THE SD PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE...MUCH WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT ONE...WILL
MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW...BUT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS IN THE
AFTERNOON TO POSSIBLY GET A STRONG STORM OR TWO GOING. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S...WITH SOME 70S ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN SD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES OVER
THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY IN
THE EVENING AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CWA WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE
MIDWEST DURING THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ZIPS THROUGH MT INTO
ND/WY BY SATURDAY EVENING. SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
MT AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A NARROW BAND OF
1-2KJ/KG MLCAPE FROM SOUTHEAST MT INTO CENTRAL SD. 15-20M/S 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR SPREADS ACROSS NORTHWEST SD DURING PEAK HEATING. MLCIN
SHOULD BE BROKEN BY SURFACE FORCING AND LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
RESULTING IN STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A SMALL
MCS GIVEN DEVELOPING 50KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH VERY WARM READINGS
AHEAD OF THE LOW AND COOLER READINGS BEHIND THE FRONT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
SAUNTERS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BRINGING SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOWER THAN RECENT MEMORY GIVEN
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER SUNDAY
AND THEN WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHWEST US. DRIER AND
WARMER PATTERN MAY EVOLVE GIVEN THERMAL RIDGE AMPLIFICATION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

SCATTERED -SHRA ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM KMGB TO KCDR WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THIS EVENING...EXITING THE AREA COMPLETELY
LATER THIS EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST ALSO. BEHIND THESE FEATURES...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ON THE SD PLAINS LATER TONIGHT WHERE LOCAL MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
FOG MAY OCCUR.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 282132
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
332 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NEB...WITH INVERTED TROF STRETCHING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SD.
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST CO...SLOWLY MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST. KUDX RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
CENTRAL SD TO FAR SOUTHWEST SD. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN SD. SKIES RANGE
FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING
FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. HAVE ADDED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS
SYSTEM IS SLOWER TO MOVE OUT THAN WAS EXPECTED. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HAVE KEPT
PATCHY FOG IN FOR MOST OF THE SD PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE...MUCH WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT ONE...WILL
MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW...BUT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS IN THE
AFTERNOON TO POSSIBLY GET A STRONG STORM OR TWO GOING. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S...WITH SOME 70S ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN SD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES OVER
THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY IN
THE EVENING AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CWA WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE
MIDWEST DURING THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ZIPS THROUGH MT INTO
ND/WY BY SATURDAY EVENING. SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
MT AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A NARROW BAND OF
1-2KJ/KG MLCAPE FROM SOUTHEAST MT INTO CENTRAL SD. 15-20M/S 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR SPREADS ACROSS NORTHWEST SD DURING PEAK HEATING. MLCIN
SHOULD BE BROKEN BY SURFACE FORCING AND LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
RESULTING IN STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A SMALL
MCS GIVEN DEVELOPING 50KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH VERY WARM READINGS
AHEAD OF THE LOW AND COOLER READINGS BEHIND THE FRONT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
SAUNTERS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BRINGING SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOWER THAN RECENT MEMORY GIVEN
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER SUNDAY
AND THEN WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHWEST US. DRIER AND
WARMER PATTERN MAY EVOLVE GIVEN THERMAL RIDGE AMPLIFICATION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM KMGB TO
KCDR WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...EXITING THE AREA
COMPLETELY THIS EVENING. AREAS IFR CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PRECIPITATION AND ST/BR WILL SHIFT EAST ALSO. BEHIND THESE
FEATURES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ON THE SD PLAINS LATER TONIGHT WHERE LOCAL MVFR
VSBYS DUE TO BR MAY OCCUR.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON








000
FXUS63 KUNR 282132
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
332 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NEB...WITH INVERTED TROF STRETCHING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SD.
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST CO...SLOWLY MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST. KUDX RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
CENTRAL SD TO FAR SOUTHWEST SD. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN SD. SKIES RANGE
FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING
FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. HAVE ADDED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS
SYSTEM IS SLOWER TO MOVE OUT THAN WAS EXPECTED. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HAVE KEPT
PATCHY FOG IN FOR MOST OF THE SD PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE...MUCH WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT ONE...WILL
MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW...BUT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS IN THE
AFTERNOON TO POSSIBLY GET A STRONG STORM OR TWO GOING. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S...WITH SOME 70S ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN SD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES OVER
THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY IN
THE EVENING AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CWA WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE
MIDWEST DURING THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ZIPS THROUGH MT INTO
ND/WY BY SATURDAY EVENING. SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
MT AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A NARROW BAND OF
1-2KJ/KG MLCAPE FROM SOUTHEAST MT INTO CENTRAL SD. 15-20M/S 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR SPREADS ACROSS NORTHWEST SD DURING PEAK HEATING. MLCIN
SHOULD BE BROKEN BY SURFACE FORCING AND LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
RESULTING IN STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A SMALL
MCS GIVEN DEVELOPING 50KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH VERY WARM READINGS
AHEAD OF THE LOW AND COOLER READINGS BEHIND THE FRONT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
SAUNTERS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BRINGING SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOWER THAN RECENT MEMORY GIVEN
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER SUNDAY
AND THEN WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHWEST US. DRIER AND
WARMER PATTERN MAY EVOLVE GIVEN THERMAL RIDGE AMPLIFICATION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM KMGB TO
KCDR WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...EXITING THE AREA
COMPLETELY THIS EVENING. AREAS IFR CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PRECIPITATION AND ST/BR WILL SHIFT EAST ALSO. BEHIND THESE
FEATURES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ON THE SD PLAINS LATER TONIGHT WHERE LOCAL MVFR
VSBYS DUE TO BR MAY OCCUR.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 281703
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1103 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NEB...
WITH INVERTED TROF STRETCHING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SD. HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NOW OVER WESTERN NEB...SLOWLY MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST. KUDX RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
CENTRAL SD TO FAR SOUTHWEST SD. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. SKIES
RANGE FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER NORTHEAST WY TO MAINLY CLOUDY EAST OF
THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPS ARE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH A GRADUAL
EASTWARD SHIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO ADD SOME POPS
FOR THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD IF THE EASTWARD
TREND SLOWS DOWN A BIT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH TEMPS MIGHT
BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN SOME AREAS...BUT WILL SEE HOW QUICKLY THEY
RISE OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 HOURS BEFORE MAKING ANYMORE ADJUSTMENTS.
UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT TO MAKE SHORT TERM CHANGES TO
POPS...CLOUD COVER...AND WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN...WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND CENTRAL
WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NRN
COLORADO/SRN WYOMING WITH A TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS CONTINUING TO ROTATE AND
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. A LITTLE EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...EXPECT
AREAS OF FOG TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE
WRN SD PLAINS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...DIURNAL HEATING AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE A TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER/STORM OVER THE
BLACK HILLS. THUS LEFT ISOLD POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE WARMER WITH DECREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...DECIDED TO ADD SOME FOG FOR THE SD PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS MT/ND PUSHING A WEAK
COOL FRONT INTO WESTERN SD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 250-500J/KG
MLCAPE...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CAPE/SHEAR FOR STORMS.
MOST OF THE 500-700MB MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER
COULD SEE SCATTERED STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE NW...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TRACK TO ADVECT THROUGH THE
REGION SAT-SUN...WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE POSSIBLE MONDAY.
TROUGH RELOADING OVER THE NE PAC TUE-WED FAVORED IN ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MEAN RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. MAIN FORECAST TREND IS A
QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE EXPECTED LONG WAVE TROUGH SAT...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING SAT AFTERNOON WESTERN THIRD. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK ATTM.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH OUT OF THE NE PAC AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SUPPORTING INCREASING LSA SAT THROUGH SUNDAY. LEE SIDE SFC
TROUGH WILL WILL INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE SUPPORTING
A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TS ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN FA BY SAT AFTERNOON.
LL SE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOIST UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING PW OVER THE REGION...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
BEING AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODEL INDICATION FOR
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE OVER THE FAR NW ZONES...ESP NW
SD BY SAT EVENING...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT THERE.
SOMETHING TO WATCH. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT
EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IMPULSE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT NE ACROSS THE NW FA. TRAILING SFC TROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT LSA
SHOULD SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/TS NW THIRD...WITH MORE
SCT/ISOLD ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL WILL SUPPORT STEEP LL LAPSE RATES OVER THE FA SUNDAY WITH
RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH BH/NE WY
TERRAIN INFLUENCES SHOULD SUPPORT SCT TO ISOLD SHRA/TS SW HALF OF
THE FA. BUMPED POPS UP OVER THE BH. OTHERWISE...ONE MORE WEAKER
WESTERLY FLOW IMPULSE STILL INDICATED IN FORECAST MODELS
MONDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA/TS...ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LOOKS MARGINAL ATTM...ESP WITH DRY PROFILES. DRY CONDS
EXPECTED TUE-WED WITH MEAN DEEP LAYER RIDGING.

SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESP NW AREAS.
THE WARMEST DAY IN PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SAT...ESP ON THE SD PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION FOR WARM CONDITIONS NEXT WED GIVEN
SW WAA FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL EJECTING NE PAC UPPER
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

-SHRA/ISOLATED -TSRA EAST OF A LINE FROM KMGB TO KCUT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...EXITING THE AREA
COMPLETELY EARLY THIS EVENING. AREAS IFR CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND ST/BR WILL SHIFT EAST ALSO. BEHIND
THESE FEATURES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON THE SD PLAINS LATER TONIGHT
WHERE LOCAL MVFR VSBYS DUE TO BR MAY OCCUR.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 281703
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1103 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NEB...
WITH INVERTED TROF STRETCHING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SD. HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NOW OVER WESTERN NEB...SLOWLY MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST. KUDX RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
CENTRAL SD TO FAR SOUTHWEST SD. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. SKIES
RANGE FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER NORTHEAST WY TO MAINLY CLOUDY EAST OF
THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPS ARE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH A GRADUAL
EASTWARD SHIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO ADD SOME POPS
FOR THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD IF THE EASTWARD
TREND SLOWS DOWN A BIT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH TEMPS MIGHT
BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN SOME AREAS...BUT WILL SEE HOW QUICKLY THEY
RISE OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 HOURS BEFORE MAKING ANYMORE ADJUSTMENTS.
UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT TO MAKE SHORT TERM CHANGES TO
POPS...CLOUD COVER...AND WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN...WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND CENTRAL
WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NRN
COLORADO/SRN WYOMING WITH A TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS CONTINUING TO ROTATE AND
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. A LITTLE EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...EXPECT
AREAS OF FOG TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE
WRN SD PLAINS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...DIURNAL HEATING AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE A TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER/STORM OVER THE
BLACK HILLS. THUS LEFT ISOLD POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE WARMER WITH DECREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...DECIDED TO ADD SOME FOG FOR THE SD PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS MT/ND PUSHING A WEAK
COOL FRONT INTO WESTERN SD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 250-500J/KG
MLCAPE...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CAPE/SHEAR FOR STORMS.
MOST OF THE 500-700MB MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER
COULD SEE SCATTERED STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE NW...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TRACK TO ADVECT THROUGH THE
REGION SAT-SUN...WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE POSSIBLE MONDAY.
TROUGH RELOADING OVER THE NE PAC TUE-WED FAVORED IN ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MEAN RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. MAIN FORECAST TREND IS A
QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE EXPECTED LONG WAVE TROUGH SAT...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING SAT AFTERNOON WESTERN THIRD. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK ATTM.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH OUT OF THE NE PAC AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SUPPORTING INCREASING LSA SAT THROUGH SUNDAY. LEE SIDE SFC
TROUGH WILL WILL INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE SUPPORTING
A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TS ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN FA BY SAT AFTERNOON.
LL SE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOIST UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING PW OVER THE REGION...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
BEING AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODEL INDICATION FOR
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE OVER THE FAR NW ZONES...ESP NW
SD BY SAT EVENING...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT THERE.
SOMETHING TO WATCH. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT
EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IMPULSE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT NE ACROSS THE NW FA. TRAILING SFC TROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT LSA
SHOULD SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/TS NW THIRD...WITH MORE
SCT/ISOLD ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL WILL SUPPORT STEEP LL LAPSE RATES OVER THE FA SUNDAY WITH
RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH BH/NE WY
TERRAIN INFLUENCES SHOULD SUPPORT SCT TO ISOLD SHRA/TS SW HALF OF
THE FA. BUMPED POPS UP OVER THE BH. OTHERWISE...ONE MORE WEAKER
WESTERLY FLOW IMPULSE STILL INDICATED IN FORECAST MODELS
MONDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA/TS...ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LOOKS MARGINAL ATTM...ESP WITH DRY PROFILES. DRY CONDS
EXPECTED TUE-WED WITH MEAN DEEP LAYER RIDGING.

SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESP NW AREAS.
THE WARMEST DAY IN PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SAT...ESP ON THE SD PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION FOR WARM CONDITIONS NEXT WED GIVEN
SW WAA FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL EJECTING NE PAC UPPER
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

-SHRA/ISOLATED -TSRA EAST OF A LINE FROM KMGB TO KCUT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...EXITING THE AREA
COMPLETELY EARLY THIS EVENING. AREAS IFR CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND ST/BR WILL SHIFT EAST ALSO. BEHIND
THESE FEATURES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON THE SD PLAINS LATER TONIGHT
WHERE LOCAL MVFR VSBYS DUE TO BR MAY OCCUR.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 281551
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
951 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NEB...
WITH INVERTED TROF STRETCHING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SD. HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NOW OVER WESTERN NEB...SLOWLY MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST. KUDX RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
CENTRAL SD TO FAR SOUTHWEST SD. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. SKIES
RANGE FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER NORTHEAST WY TO MAINLY CLOUDY EAST OF
THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPS ARE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH A GRADUAL
EASTWARD SHIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO ADD SOME POPS
FOR THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD IF THE EASTWARD
TREND SLOWS DOWN A BIT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH TEMPS MIGHT
BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN SOME AREAS...BUT WILL SEE HOW QUICKLY THEY
RISE OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 HOURS BEFORE MAKING ANYMORE ADJUSTMENTS.
UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT TO MAKE SHORT TERM CHANGES TO
POPS...CLOUD COVER...AND WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN...WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND CENTRAL
WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NRN
COLORADO/SRN WYOMING WITH A TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS CONTINUING TO ROTATE AND
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. A LITTLE EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...EXPECT
AREAS OF FOG TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE
WRN SD PLAINS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...DIURNAL HEATING AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE A TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER/STORM OVER THE
BLACK HILLS. THUS LEFT ISOLD POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE WARMER WITH DECREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...DECIDED TO ADD SOME FOG FOR THE SD PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS MT/ND PUSHING A WEAK
COOL FRONT INTO WESTERN SD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 250-500J/KG
MLCAPE...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CAPE/SHEAR FOR STORMS.
MOST OF THE 500-700MB MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER
COULD SEE SCATTERED STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE NW...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TRACK TO ADVECT THROUGH THE
REGION SAT-SUN...WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE POSSIBLE MONDAY.
TROUGH RELOADING OVER THE NE PAC TUE-WED FAVORED IN ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MEAN RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. MAIN FORECAST TREND IS A
QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE EXPECTED LONG WAVE TROUGH SAT...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING SAT AFTERNOON WESTERN THIRD. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK ATTM.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH OUT OF THE NE PAC AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SUPPORTING INCREASING LSA SAT THROUGH SUNDAY. LEE SIDE SFC
TROUGH WILL WILL INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE SUPPORTING
A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TS ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN FA BY SAT AFTERNOON.
LL SE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOIST UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING PW OVER THE REGION...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
BEING AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODEL INDICATION FOR
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE OVER THE FAR NW ZONES...ESP NW
SD BY SAT EVENING...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT THERE.
SOMETHING TO WATCH. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT
EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IMPULSE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT NE ACROSS THE NW FA. TRAILING SFC TROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT LSA
SHOULD SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/TS NW THIRD...WITH MORE
SCT/ISOLD ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL WILL SUPPORT STEEP LL LAPSE RATES OVER THE FA SUNDAY WITH
RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH BH/NE WY
TERRAIN INFLUENCES SHOULD SUPPORT SCT TO ISOLD SHRA/TS SW HALF OF
THE FA. BUMPED POPS UP OVER THE BH. OTHERWISE...ONE MORE WEAKER
WESTERLY FLOW IMPULSE STILL INDICATED IN FORECAST MODELS
MONDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA/TS...ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LOOKS MARGINAL ATTM...ESP WITH DRY PROFILES. DRY CONDS
EXPECTED TUE-WED WITH MEAN DEEP LAYER RIDGING.

SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESP NW AREAS.
THE WARMEST DAY IN PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SAT...ESP ON THE SD PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION FOR WARM CONDITIONS NEXT WED GIVEN
SW WAA FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL EJECTING NE PAC UPPER
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL WANE AND SHIFT EAST
THROUGH AFTERNOON...AFFECTING MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN FA...ESP
SCENTRAL SD. MVFR/IFR/LOCAL LIFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED THERE. ANY
IFR/LIFR CONDS WILL LIKELY TREND TO MVFR THROUGH AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ON
THE SD PLAINS OVERNIGHT /ESP CENTRAL SD/...WITH LCL LIFR/VLIFR CONDS
POSSIBLE IN FOG. NOT EXPECTING RESTRICTIONS AT KRAP OR KGCC
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC








000
FXUS63 KUNR 281551
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
951 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NEB...
WITH INVERTED TROF STRETCHING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SD. HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NOW OVER WESTERN NEB...SLOWLY MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST. KUDX RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
CENTRAL SD TO FAR SOUTHWEST SD. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. SKIES
RANGE FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER NORTHEAST WY TO MAINLY CLOUDY EAST OF
THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPS ARE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH A GRADUAL
EASTWARD SHIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO ADD SOME POPS
FOR THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD IF THE EASTWARD
TREND SLOWS DOWN A BIT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH TEMPS MIGHT
BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN SOME AREAS...BUT WILL SEE HOW QUICKLY THEY
RISE OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 HOURS BEFORE MAKING ANYMORE ADJUSTMENTS.
UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT TO MAKE SHORT TERM CHANGES TO
POPS...CLOUD COVER...AND WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN...WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND CENTRAL
WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NRN
COLORADO/SRN WYOMING WITH A TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS CONTINUING TO ROTATE AND
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. A LITTLE EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...EXPECT
AREAS OF FOG TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE
WRN SD PLAINS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...DIURNAL HEATING AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE A TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER/STORM OVER THE
BLACK HILLS. THUS LEFT ISOLD POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE WARMER WITH DECREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...DECIDED TO ADD SOME FOG FOR THE SD PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS MT/ND PUSHING A WEAK
COOL FRONT INTO WESTERN SD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 250-500J/KG
MLCAPE...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CAPE/SHEAR FOR STORMS.
MOST OF THE 500-700MB MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER
COULD SEE SCATTERED STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE NW...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TRACK TO ADVECT THROUGH THE
REGION SAT-SUN...WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE POSSIBLE MONDAY.
TROUGH RELOADING OVER THE NE PAC TUE-WED FAVORED IN ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MEAN RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. MAIN FORECAST TREND IS A
QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE EXPECTED LONG WAVE TROUGH SAT...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING SAT AFTERNOON WESTERN THIRD. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK ATTM.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH OUT OF THE NE PAC AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SUPPORTING INCREASING LSA SAT THROUGH SUNDAY. LEE SIDE SFC
TROUGH WILL WILL INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE SUPPORTING
A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TS ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN FA BY SAT AFTERNOON.
LL SE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOIST UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING PW OVER THE REGION...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
BEING AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODEL INDICATION FOR
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE OVER THE FAR NW ZONES...ESP NW
SD BY SAT EVENING...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT THERE.
SOMETHING TO WATCH. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT
EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IMPULSE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT NE ACROSS THE NW FA. TRAILING SFC TROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT LSA
SHOULD SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/TS NW THIRD...WITH MORE
SCT/ISOLD ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL WILL SUPPORT STEEP LL LAPSE RATES OVER THE FA SUNDAY WITH
RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH BH/NE WY
TERRAIN INFLUENCES SHOULD SUPPORT SCT TO ISOLD SHRA/TS SW HALF OF
THE FA. BUMPED POPS UP OVER THE BH. OTHERWISE...ONE MORE WEAKER
WESTERLY FLOW IMPULSE STILL INDICATED IN FORECAST MODELS
MONDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA/TS...ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LOOKS MARGINAL ATTM...ESP WITH DRY PROFILES. DRY CONDS
EXPECTED TUE-WED WITH MEAN DEEP LAYER RIDGING.

SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESP NW AREAS.
THE WARMEST DAY IN PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SAT...ESP ON THE SD PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION FOR WARM CONDITIONS NEXT WED GIVEN
SW WAA FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL EJECTING NE PAC UPPER
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL WANE AND SHIFT EAST
THROUGH AFTERNOON...AFFECTING MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN FA...ESP
SCENTRAL SD. MVFR/IFR/LOCAL LIFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED THERE. ANY
IFR/LIFR CONDS WILL LIKELY TREND TO MVFR THROUGH AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ON
THE SD PLAINS OVERNIGHT /ESP CENTRAL SD/...WITH LCL LIFR/VLIFR CONDS
POSSIBLE IN FOG. NOT EXPECTING RESTRICTIONS AT KRAP OR KGCC
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 281131
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
531 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN...WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND CENTRAL
WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NRN
COLORADO/SRN WYOMING WITH A TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS CONTINUING TO ROTATE AND
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. A LITTLE EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...EXPECT
AREAS OF FOG TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE
WRN SD PLAINS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...DIURNAL HEATING AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE A TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER/STORM OVER THE
BLACK HILLS. THUS LEFT ISOLD POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE WARMER WITH DECREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...DECIDED TO ADD SOME FOG FOR THE SD PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS MT/ND PUSHING A WEAK
COOL FRONT INTO WESTERN SD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 250-500J/KG
MLCAPE...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CAPE/SHEAR FOR STORMS.
MOST OF THE 500-700MB MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER
COULD SEE SCATTERED STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE NW...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TRACK TO ADVECT THROUGH THE
REGION SAT-SUN...WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE POSSIBLE MONDAY.
TROUGH RELOADING OVER THE NE PAC TUE-WED FAVORED IN ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MEAN RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. MAIN FORECAST TREND IS A
QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE EXPECTED LONG WAVE TROUGH SAT...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING SAT AFTERNOON WESTERN THIRD. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK ATTM.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH OUT OF THE NE PAC AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SUPPORTING INCREASING LSA SAT THROUGH SUNDAY. LEE SIDE SFC
TROUGH WILL WILL INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE SUPPORTING
A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TS ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN FA BY SAT AFTERNOON.
LL SE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOIST UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING PW OVER THE REGION...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
BEING AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODEL INDICATION FOR
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE OVER THE FAR NW ZONES...ESP NW
SD BY SAT EVENING...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT THERE.
SOMETHING TO WATCH. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT
EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IMPULSE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT NE ACROSS THE NW FA. TRAILING SFC TROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT LSA
SHOULD SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/TS NW THIRD...WITH MORE
SCT/ISOLD ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL WILL SUPPORT STEEP LL LAPSE RATES OVER THE FA SUNDAY WITH
RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH BH/NE WY
TERRAIN INFLUENCES SHOULD SUPPORT SCT TO ISOLD SHRA/TS SW HALF OF
THE FA. BUMPED POPS UP OVER THE BH. OTHERWISE...ONE MORE WEAKER
WESTERLY FLOW IMPULSE STILL INDICATED IN FORECAST MODELS
MONDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA/TS...ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LOOKS MARGINAL ATTM...ESP WITH DRY PROFILES. DRY CONDS
EXPECTED TUE-WED WITH MEAN DEEP LAYER RIDGING.

SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESP NW AREAS.
THE WARMEST DAY IN PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SAT...ESP ON THE SD PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION FOR WARM CONDITIONS NEXT WED GIVEN
SW WAA FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL EJECTING NE PAC UPPER
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL WANE AND SHIFT EAST
THROUGH AFTERNOON...AFFECTING MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN FA...ESP
SCENTRAL SD. MVFR/IFR/LOCAL LIFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED THERE. ANY
IFR/LIFR CONDS WILL LIKELY TREND TO MVFR THROUGH AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ON
THE SD PLAINS OVERNIGHT /ESP CENTRAL SD/...WITH LCL LIFR/VLIFR CONDS
POSSIBLE IN FOG. NOT EXPECTING RESTRICTIONS AT KRAP OR KGCC
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 281131
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
531 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN...WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND CENTRAL
WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NRN
COLORADO/SRN WYOMING WITH A TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS CONTINUING TO ROTATE AND
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. A LITTLE EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...EXPECT
AREAS OF FOG TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE
WRN SD PLAINS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...DIURNAL HEATING AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE A TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER/STORM OVER THE
BLACK HILLS. THUS LEFT ISOLD POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE WARMER WITH DECREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...DECIDED TO ADD SOME FOG FOR THE SD PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS MT/ND PUSHING A WEAK
COOL FRONT INTO WESTERN SD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 250-500J/KG
MLCAPE...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CAPE/SHEAR FOR STORMS.
MOST OF THE 500-700MB MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER
COULD SEE SCATTERED STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE NW...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TRACK TO ADVECT THROUGH THE
REGION SAT-SUN...WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE POSSIBLE MONDAY.
TROUGH RELOADING OVER THE NE PAC TUE-WED FAVORED IN ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MEAN RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. MAIN FORECAST TREND IS A
QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE EXPECTED LONG WAVE TROUGH SAT...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING SAT AFTERNOON WESTERN THIRD. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK ATTM.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH OUT OF THE NE PAC AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SUPPORTING INCREASING LSA SAT THROUGH SUNDAY. LEE SIDE SFC
TROUGH WILL WILL INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE SUPPORTING
A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TS ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN FA BY SAT AFTERNOON.
LL SE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOIST UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING PW OVER THE REGION...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
BEING AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODEL INDICATION FOR
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE OVER THE FAR NW ZONES...ESP NW
SD BY SAT EVENING...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT THERE.
SOMETHING TO WATCH. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT
EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IMPULSE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT NE ACROSS THE NW FA. TRAILING SFC TROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT LSA
SHOULD SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/TS NW THIRD...WITH MORE
SCT/ISOLD ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL WILL SUPPORT STEEP LL LAPSE RATES OVER THE FA SUNDAY WITH
RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH BH/NE WY
TERRAIN INFLUENCES SHOULD SUPPORT SCT TO ISOLD SHRA/TS SW HALF OF
THE FA. BUMPED POPS UP OVER THE BH. OTHERWISE...ONE MORE WEAKER
WESTERLY FLOW IMPULSE STILL INDICATED IN FORECAST MODELS
MONDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA/TS...ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LOOKS MARGINAL ATTM...ESP WITH DRY PROFILES. DRY CONDS
EXPECTED TUE-WED WITH MEAN DEEP LAYER RIDGING.

SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESP NW AREAS.
THE WARMEST DAY IN PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SAT...ESP ON THE SD PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION FOR WARM CONDITIONS NEXT WED GIVEN
SW WAA FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL EJECTING NE PAC UPPER
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL WANE AND SHIFT EAST
THROUGH AFTERNOON...AFFECTING MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN FA...ESP
SCENTRAL SD. MVFR/IFR/LOCAL LIFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED THERE. ANY
IFR/LIFR CONDS WILL LIKELY TREND TO MVFR THROUGH AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ON
THE SD PLAINS OVERNIGHT /ESP CENTRAL SD/...WITH LCL LIFR/VLIFR CONDS
POSSIBLE IN FOG. NOT EXPECTING RESTRICTIONS AT KRAP OR KGCC
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC








000
FXUS63 KUNR 280904
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
304 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN...WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND CENTRAL
WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NRN
COLORADO/SRN WYOMING WITH A TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS CONTINUING TO ROTATE AND
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. A LITTLE EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...EXPECT
AREAS OF FOG TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE
WRN SD PLAINS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...DIURNAL HEATING AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE A TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER/STORM OVER THE
BLACK HILLS. THUS LEFT ISOLD POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE WARMER WITH DECREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...DECIDED TO ADD SOME FOG FOR THE SD PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS MT/ND PUSHING A WEAK
COOL FRONT INTO WESTERN SD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 250-500J/KG
MLCAPE...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CAPE/SHEAR FOR STORMS.
MOST OF THE 500-700MB MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER
COULD SEE SCATTERED STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE NW...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TRACK TO ADVECT THROUGH THE
REGION SAT-SUN...WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE POSSIBLE MONDAY.
TROUGH RELOADING OVER THE NE PAC TUE-WED FAVORED IN ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MEAN RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. MAIN FORECAST TREND IS A
QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE EXPECTED LONG WAVE TROUGH SAT...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING SAT AFTERNOON WESTERN THIRD. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK ATTM.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH OUT OF THE NE PAC AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SUPPORTING INCREASING LSA SAT THROUGH SUNDAY. LEE SIDE SFC
TROUGH WILL WILL INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE SUPPORTING
A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TS ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN FA BY SAT AFTERNOON.
LL SE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOIST UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING PW OVER THE REGION...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
BEING AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODEL INDICATION FOR
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE OVER THE FAR NW ZONES...ESP NW
SD BY SAT EVENING...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT THERE.
SOMETHING TO WATCH. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT
EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IMPULSE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT NE ACROSS THE NW FA. TRAILING SFC TROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT LSA
SHOULD SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/TS NW THIRD...WITH MORE
SCT/ISOLD ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL WILL SUPPORT STEEP LL LAPSE RATES OVER THE FA SUNDAY WITH
RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH BH/NE WY
TERRAIN INFLUENCES SHOULD SUPPORT SCT TO ISOLD SHRA/TS SW HALF OF
THE FA. BUMPED POPS UP OVER THE BH. OTHERWISE...ONE MORE WEAKER
WESTERLY FLOW IMPULSE STILL INDICATED IN FORECAST MODELS
MONDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA/TS...ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LOOKS MARGINAL ATTM...ESP WITH DRY PROFILES. DRY CONDS
EXPECTED TUE-WED WITH MEAN DEEP LAYER RIDGING.

SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESP NW AREAS.
THE WARMEST DAY IN PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SAT...ESP ON THE SD PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION FOR WARM CONDITIONS NEXT WED GIVEN
SW WAA FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL EJECTING NE PAC UPPER
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

WDSPRD SHRA WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...MAINLY CNTRL SD. LOCAL
IFR VSBY IN FOG POSSIBLE THERE...ESP INTO NW SD. THE PCPN WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP ON THE PLAINS OF WRN SD OVERNIGHT...WITH LCL IFR CONDS
IN FOG. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC








000
FXUS63 KUNR 280904
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
304 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN...WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND CENTRAL
WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NRN
COLORADO/SRN WYOMING WITH A TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS CONTINUING TO ROTATE AND
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. A LITTLE EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...EXPECT
AREAS OF FOG TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE
WRN SD PLAINS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...DIURNAL HEATING AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE A TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER/STORM OVER THE
BLACK HILLS. THUS LEFT ISOLD POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE WARMER WITH DECREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...DECIDED TO ADD SOME FOG FOR THE SD PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS MT/ND PUSHING A WEAK
COOL FRONT INTO WESTERN SD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 250-500J/KG
MLCAPE...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CAPE/SHEAR FOR STORMS.
MOST OF THE 500-700MB MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER
COULD SEE SCATTERED STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE NW...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TRACK TO ADVECT THROUGH THE
REGION SAT-SUN...WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE POSSIBLE MONDAY.
TROUGH RELOADING OVER THE NE PAC TUE-WED FAVORED IN ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MEAN RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. MAIN FORECAST TREND IS A
QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE EXPECTED LONG WAVE TROUGH SAT...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING SAT AFTERNOON WESTERN THIRD. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK ATTM.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH OUT OF THE NE PAC AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SUPPORTING INCREASING LSA SAT THROUGH SUNDAY. LEE SIDE SFC
TROUGH WILL WILL INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE SUPPORTING
A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TS ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN FA BY SAT AFTERNOON.
LL SE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOIST UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING PW OVER THE REGION...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
BEING AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODEL INDICATION FOR
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE OVER THE FAR NW ZONES...ESP NW
SD BY SAT EVENING...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT THERE.
SOMETHING TO WATCH. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT
EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IMPULSE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT NE ACROSS THE NW FA. TRAILING SFC TROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT LSA
SHOULD SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/TS NW THIRD...WITH MORE
SCT/ISOLD ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL WILL SUPPORT STEEP LL LAPSE RATES OVER THE FA SUNDAY WITH
RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH BH/NE WY
TERRAIN INFLUENCES SHOULD SUPPORT SCT TO ISOLD SHRA/TS SW HALF OF
THE FA. BUMPED POPS UP OVER THE BH. OTHERWISE...ONE MORE WEAKER
WESTERLY FLOW IMPULSE STILL INDICATED IN FORECAST MODELS
MONDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA/TS...ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LOOKS MARGINAL ATTM...ESP WITH DRY PROFILES. DRY CONDS
EXPECTED TUE-WED WITH MEAN DEEP LAYER RIDGING.

SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESP NW AREAS.
THE WARMEST DAY IN PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SAT...ESP ON THE SD PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION FOR WARM CONDITIONS NEXT WED GIVEN
SW WAA FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL EJECTING NE PAC UPPER
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

WDSPRD SHRA WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...MAINLY CNTRL SD. LOCAL
IFR VSBY IN FOG POSSIBLE THERE...ESP INTO NW SD. THE PCPN WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP ON THE PLAINS OF WRN SD OVERNIGHT...WITH LCL IFR CONDS
IN FOG. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 280428
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1028 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

WDSPRD SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS NERN THROUGH SWRN
SD...SO HAVE RAISED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS EVENING THAT AREA...WHILE
ALSO EXPANDING POPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. SOME OF THIS RAINFALL IS
VERY HEAVY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST
CO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN WY TO
CENTRAL KS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
CO...WITH TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN SD. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ROTATING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND UPPER LOW ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN WY...THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AS WELL AS OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
SLOW MOVING STORMS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS HAVE
PRODUCED SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS.

THE GENERAL TREND FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS BY EARLY THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUT-OFF TO
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW WITH MAIN
AREA OF INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WEAK
SHEAR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THERE IS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND A COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
THE AREA AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...WILL ADD AREAS OF FOG TO MUCH
OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY
BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SD AREA. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS FOR
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AROUND POSSIBLY
PRODUCING A TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER OR STORM. SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY
CLOUDY...WITH THE MOST SUN ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. WARMER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THESE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG COULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SD PLAINS
LATE...BUT WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THAT TOMORROW. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...A NARROW BAND OF SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR PRESENT FOR
POST FRONTAL ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF
OF CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH WEAK
COOL AIR ADVECTION.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MT/NORTHERN
WY AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DEVELOP A LOW ALONG IT IN
SOUTHEAST MT AND DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...BUT MLCIN MAY BE NOTABLE GIVEN DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

HAVE ADDED/EXPANDED POPS BOTH FRIDAY/SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
THINKING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A SLOW TRANSITION TO
RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
COOLISH TEMPERATURES TO START SUNDAY BEHIND SATURDAY/S COOL
FRONT...BUT THEN WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

WDSPRD SHRA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLKHLS
INTO CNTRL SD. LOCAL IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER -SHRA. THE PCPN WILL THEN
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP ON THE PLAINS OF WRN SD OVERNIGHT...WITH LCL IFR
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 280428
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1028 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

WDSPRD SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS NERN THROUGH SWRN
SD...SO HAVE RAISED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS EVENING THAT AREA...WHILE
ALSO EXPANDING POPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. SOME OF THIS RAINFALL IS
VERY HEAVY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST
CO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN WY TO
CENTRAL KS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
CO...WITH TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN SD. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ROTATING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND UPPER LOW ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN WY...THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AS WELL AS OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
SLOW MOVING STORMS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS HAVE
PRODUCED SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS.

THE GENERAL TREND FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS BY EARLY THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUT-OFF TO
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW WITH MAIN
AREA OF INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WEAK
SHEAR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THERE IS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND A COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
THE AREA AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...WILL ADD AREAS OF FOG TO MUCH
OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY
BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SD AREA. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS FOR
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AROUND POSSIBLY
PRODUCING A TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER OR STORM. SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY
CLOUDY...WITH THE MOST SUN ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. WARMER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THESE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG COULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SD PLAINS
LATE...BUT WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THAT TOMORROW. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...A NARROW BAND OF SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR PRESENT FOR
POST FRONTAL ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF
OF CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH WEAK
COOL AIR ADVECTION.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MT/NORTHERN
WY AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DEVELOP A LOW ALONG IT IN
SOUTHEAST MT AND DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...BUT MLCIN MAY BE NOTABLE GIVEN DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

HAVE ADDED/EXPANDED POPS BOTH FRIDAY/SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
THINKING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A SLOW TRANSITION TO
RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
COOLISH TEMPERATURES TO START SUNDAY BEHIND SATURDAY/S COOL
FRONT...BUT THEN WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

WDSPRD SHRA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLKHLS
INTO CNTRL SD. LOCAL IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER -SHRA. THE PCPN WILL THEN
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP ON THE PLAINS OF WRN SD OVERNIGHT...WITH LCL IFR
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...JOHNSON








000
FXUS63 KUNR 280005
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
605 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

WDSPRD SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS NERN THROUGH SWRN
SD...SO HAVE RAISED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS EVENING THAT AREA...WHILE
ALSO EXPANDING POPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. SOME OF THIS RAINFALL IS
VERY HEAVY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST
CO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN WY TO
CENTRAL KS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
CO...WITH TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN SD. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ROTATING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND UPPER LOW ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN WY...THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AS WELL AS OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
SLOW MOVING STORMS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS HAVE
PRODUCED SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS.

THE GENERAL TREND FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS BY EARLY THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUT-OFF TO
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW WITH MAIN
AREA OF INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WEAK
SHEAR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THERE IS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND A COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
THE AREA AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...WILL ADD AREAS OF FOG TO MUCH
OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY
BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SD AREA. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS FOR
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AROUND POSSIBLY
PRODUCING A TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER OR STORM. SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY
CLOUDY...WITH THE MOST SUN ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. WARMER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THESE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG COULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SD PLAINS
LATE...BUT WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THAT TOMORROW. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...A NARROW BAND OF SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR PRESENT FOR
POST FRONTAL ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF
OF CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH WEAK
COOL AIR ADVECTION.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MT/NORTHERN
WY AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DEVELOP A LOW ALONG IT IN
SOUTHEAST MT AND DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...BUT MLCIN MAY BE NOTABLE GIVEN DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

HAVE ADDED/EXPANDED POPS BOTH FRIDAY/SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
THINKING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A SLOW TRANSITION TO
RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
COOLISH TEMPERATURES TO START SUNDAY BEHIND SATURDAY/S COOL
FRONT...BUT THEN WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

WDSPRD SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. AREAS ST/BR ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALONG/SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KPHP TO KCUT...ALTHOUGH FINAL NORTHERN
EDGE OF ST/BR WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AREAS MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHRA/BR ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ON THE SD PLAINS AS SURFACE T/TD SPREADS
CONVERGE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 280005
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
605 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

WDSPRD SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS NERN THROUGH SWRN
SD...SO HAVE RAISED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS EVENING THAT AREA...WHILE
ALSO EXPANDING POPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. SOME OF THIS RAINFALL IS
VERY HEAVY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST
CO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN WY TO
CENTRAL KS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
CO...WITH TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN SD. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ROTATING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND UPPER LOW ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN WY...THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AS WELL AS OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
SLOW MOVING STORMS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS HAVE
PRODUCED SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS.

THE GENERAL TREND FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS BY EARLY THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUT-OFF TO
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW WITH MAIN
AREA OF INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WEAK
SHEAR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THERE IS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND A COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
THE AREA AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...WILL ADD AREAS OF FOG TO MUCH
OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY
BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SD AREA. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS FOR
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AROUND POSSIBLY
PRODUCING A TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER OR STORM. SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY
CLOUDY...WITH THE MOST SUN ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. WARMER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THESE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG COULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SD PLAINS
LATE...BUT WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THAT TOMORROW. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...A NARROW BAND OF SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR PRESENT FOR
POST FRONTAL ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF
OF CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH WEAK
COOL AIR ADVECTION.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MT/NORTHERN
WY AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DEVELOP A LOW ALONG IT IN
SOUTHEAST MT AND DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...BUT MLCIN MAY BE NOTABLE GIVEN DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

HAVE ADDED/EXPANDED POPS BOTH FRIDAY/SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
THINKING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A SLOW TRANSITION TO
RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
COOLISH TEMPERATURES TO START SUNDAY BEHIND SATURDAY/S COOL
FRONT...BUT THEN WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

WDSPRD SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. AREAS ST/BR ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALONG/SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KPHP TO KCUT...ALTHOUGH FINAL NORTHERN
EDGE OF ST/BR WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AREAS MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHRA/BR ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ON THE SD PLAINS AS SURFACE T/TD SPREADS
CONVERGE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...JOHNSON








000
FXUS63 KUNR 272105
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST
CO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN WY TO
CENTRAL KS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
CO...WITH TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN SD. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ROTATING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND UPPER LOW ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN WY...THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AS WELL AS OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
SLOW MOVING STORMS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS HAVE
PRODUCED SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS.

THE GENERAL TREND FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS BY EARLY THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUT-OFF TO
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW WITH MAIN
AREA OF INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WEAK
SHEAR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THERE IS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND A COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
THE AREA AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...WILL ADD AREAS OF FOG TO MUCH
OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY
BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SD AREA. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS FOR
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AROUND POSSIBLY
PRODUCING A TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER OR STORM. SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY
CLOUDY...WITH THE MOST SUN ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. WARMER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THESE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG COULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SD PLAINS
LATE...BUT WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THAT TOMORROW. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...A NARROW BAND OF SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR PRESENT FOR
POST FRONTAL ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF
OF CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH WEAK
COOL AIR ADVECTION.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MT/NORTHERN
WY AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DEVELOP A LOW ALONG IT IN
SOUTHEAST MT AND DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...BUT MLCIN MAY BE NOTABLE GIVEN DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

HAVE ADDED/EXPANDED POPS BOTH FRIDAY/SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
THINKING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A SLOW TRANSITION TO
RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
COOLISH TEMPERATURES TO START SUNDAY BEHIND SATURDAY/S COOL
FRONT...BUT THEN WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. AREAS ST/BR ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALONG/SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KPHP TO KCUT...ALTHOUGH FINAL NORTHERN
EDGE OF ST/BR WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AREAS MVFR VSBYS DUE TO BR ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ON THE SD PLAINS AS SURFACE T/TD SPREADS
CONVERGE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 272105
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST
CO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN WY TO
CENTRAL KS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
CO...WITH TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN SD. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ROTATING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND UPPER LOW ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN WY...THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AS WELL AS OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
SLOW MOVING STORMS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS HAVE
PRODUCED SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS.

THE GENERAL TREND FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS BY EARLY THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUT-OFF TO
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW WITH MAIN
AREA OF INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WEAK
SHEAR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THERE IS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND A COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
THE AREA AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...WILL ADD AREAS OF FOG TO MUCH
OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY
BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SD AREA. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS FOR
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AROUND POSSIBLY
PRODUCING A TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWER OR STORM. SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY
CLOUDY...WITH THE MOST SUN ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. WARMER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THESE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG COULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SD PLAINS
LATE...BUT WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THAT TOMORROW. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...A NARROW BAND OF SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR PRESENT FOR
POST FRONTAL ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF
OF CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH WEAK
COOL AIR ADVECTION.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MT/NORTHERN
WY AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DEVELOP A LOW ALONG IT IN
SOUTHEAST MT AND DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...BUT MLCIN MAY BE NOTABLE GIVEN DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

HAVE ADDED/EXPANDED POPS BOTH FRIDAY/SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
THINKING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A SLOW TRANSITION TO
RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
COOLISH TEMPERATURES TO START SUNDAY BEHIND SATURDAY/S COOL
FRONT...BUT THEN WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. AREAS ST/BR ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALONG/SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KPHP TO KCUT...ALTHOUGH FINAL NORTHERN
EDGE OF ST/BR WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AREAS MVFR VSBYS DUE TO BR ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ON THE SD PLAINS AS SURFACE T/TD SPREADS
CONVERGE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON








000
FXUS63 KUNR 271646
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1046 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST
CO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN WY TO
NORTHEAST KS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
UT...WITH TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AREAS OF FOG
LIFTING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW
MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN TWO AREAS. THE
MAIN AREA IS OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WY...MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE UPPER LOW. ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHTER
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEB INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
SD...MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST. OUR AREA IS DRY AT THE MOMENT...BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND ALSO DEVELOP
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WY/NORTHERN CO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY SHARP
CUT-OFF TO THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS... LIKELY SOMEWHERE NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
REMAINS LOW WITH MAIN AREA OF INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

HAVE MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND RAISE THEM OVER THE BLACK HILLS
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD AT THE MOMENT...
BUT MAY HAVE TO TWEAK THEM A BIT LATER ON...DEPENDING ON CLOUD
AND SHOWER COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
NEVADA/UTAH WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD AS THE CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY PROPAGATES INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR TODAY THE BEST FORCING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCES
OF PRECIP THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A SERIES OF WAVES CROSS THE COLORADO/NEBRASKA
AREA. MODELS ARE VARYING WITH TIMING OF WAVES AND HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIP WILL EXTEND WITHIN THE CWA. EITHER WAY QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIMITED...EXCEPT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER STORMS
CROSSING AREAS NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO CLOUD COVER. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES THROUGH NEBRASKA/KANSAS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TWO MAIN SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE
PERIOD...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FRIDAY...AND A MORE ROBUST
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT PER WAVE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK. HOWEVER...SOME
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY PERIOD BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...MAINLY THE HANDLING OF
THE NW CONUS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY EJECTING IMPULSE. THE ECMWF HAS A
SOUTHERN BIAS TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF LSA PASSING THROUGH
THE FA AS OPPOSED TO A MORE NORTHERN TRACK IN THE GFS...WHICH IS
ALSO FASTER. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN IN THE FA HOWEVER MOISTURE LIMITATIONS MAY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIP TOTALS THEN.

RETAINED PREV POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK AND
EXPANSION OF SLIGHT MENTION. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
SFC TROUGH STALLING ACROSS THE SW HALF FRIDAY...WITH A PASSING UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE. SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE ND RESULTING CAPE WOULD BE
CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...ESP OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. OTHERWISE...A MORE IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH
OUT OF THE NE PAC AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SUPPORTING
INCREASING LSA SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER SFC CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE REGION...SUPPORTING
MORE ELEVATED/CONVECTIVE CHANCES BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD DEFORMATION RAINS. HENCE...KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE CAT FOR NOW...ESP AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT QUICKLY
EAST OUT OF THE REGION. KEPT MOST OF THE REGION DRY MONDAY THROUGH
TUES...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COMMENCING AND DRY PROFILES.

SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED MONDAY AND PERHAPS TUES BEHIND
SUNDAY/S COLD FRONT...ESP NW AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. AREAS ST/BR ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALONG/SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KPHP TO KCUT...ALTHOUGH FINAL NORTHERN
EDGE OF ST/BR WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA SHOULD REMAIN LARGE
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 271646
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1046 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST
CO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN WY TO
NORTHEAST KS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
UT...WITH TROF COVERING THE ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AREAS OF FOG
LIFTING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW
MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN TWO AREAS. THE
MAIN AREA IS OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WY...MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE UPPER LOW. ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHTER
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEB INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
SD...MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST. OUR AREA IS DRY AT THE MOMENT...BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND ALSO DEVELOP
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WY/NORTHERN CO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY SHARP
CUT-OFF TO THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS... LIKELY SOMEWHERE NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
REMAINS LOW WITH MAIN AREA OF INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

HAVE MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND RAISE THEM OVER THE BLACK HILLS
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD AT THE MOMENT...
BUT MAY HAVE TO TWEAK THEM A BIT LATER ON...DEPENDING ON CLOUD
AND SHOWER COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
NEVADA/UTAH WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD AS THE CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY PROPAGATES INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR TODAY THE BEST FORCING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCES
OF PRECIP THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A SERIES OF WAVES CROSS THE COLORADO/NEBRASKA
AREA. MODELS ARE VARYING WITH TIMING OF WAVES AND HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIP WILL EXTEND WITHIN THE CWA. EITHER WAY QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIMITED...EXCEPT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER STORMS
CROSSING AREAS NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO CLOUD COVER. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES THROUGH NEBRASKA/KANSAS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TWO MAIN SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE
PERIOD...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FRIDAY...AND A MORE ROBUST
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT PER WAVE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK. HOWEVER...SOME
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY PERIOD BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...MAINLY THE HANDLING OF
THE NW CONUS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY EJECTING IMPULSE. THE ECMWF HAS A
SOUTHERN BIAS TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF LSA PASSING THROUGH
THE FA AS OPPOSED TO A MORE NORTHERN TRACK IN THE GFS...WHICH IS
ALSO FASTER. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN IN THE FA HOWEVER MOISTURE LIMITATIONS MAY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIP TOTALS THEN.

RETAINED PREV POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK AND
EXPANSION OF SLIGHT MENTION. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
SFC TROUGH STALLING ACROSS THE SW HALF FRIDAY...WITH A PASSING UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE. SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE ND RESULTING CAPE WOULD BE
CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...ESP OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. OTHERWISE...A MORE IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH
OUT OF THE NE PAC AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SUPPORTING
INCREASING LSA SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER SFC CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE REGION...SUPPORTING
MORE ELEVATED/CONVECTIVE CHANCES BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD DEFORMATION RAINS. HENCE...KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE CAT FOR NOW...ESP AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT QUICKLY
EAST OUT OF THE REGION. KEPT MOST OF THE REGION DRY MONDAY THROUGH
TUES...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COMMENCING AND DRY PROFILES.

SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS /5-10 DEGREES/ EXPECTED MONDAY AND PERHAPS TUES BEHIND
SUNDAY/S COLD FRONT...ESP NW AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. AREAS ST/BR ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALONG/SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KPHP TO KCUT...ALTHOUGH FINAL NORTHERN
EDGE OF ST/BR WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA SHOULD REMAIN LARGE
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON





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