000
FXUS63 KUNR 242030
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
230 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW CIRCULATING OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS
AND THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE CWA. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS SETTING UP
OVER THE REGION. SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW MOVING INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT HAVE DECREASED SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING.
WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW...AND TEMPS ARE
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AS MUCAPE INCREASES TO 1500-2000 J/KG. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MID-40S TO MID-50S.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...WITH A WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE CWA. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH...BRINGING IN MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS 50-60
DEGREES. A SWATH OF SBCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG SETS UP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA BY 21Z...WITH BEST FORCING ALONG THE SD/WY BORDER FOR THE
AFTERNOON...MOVING EASTWARD WITH THE TROUGH IN THE EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START SATURDAY MORNING AS THE EAST
WINDS PUSH MOISTURE UP AGAINST THE HILLS...AND THEN BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE IN THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING AND INSTABILITY
INCREASE AND ALIGN. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5
INCHES...WHICH IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE MAY...SO HEAVY
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. ALTHOUGH BEST 0-1 KM SRH
DOES NOT LINE UP WITH BEST LFC/LCL HEIGHTS...WOULD NOT RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID-70S TO MID-80S...WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S
TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
PERSISTENT TROF ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL KEEP
THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAILY CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE AS LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING MOIST AIR
INTO THE REGION...AND WEAK ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE WESTERN TROF
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS STILL SUGGESTING
A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS
MID/LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD PROVIDE WDSPRD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOME COOLING EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
LCL MVFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU NERN WY
INTO WRN SD THIS AFT. GUSTY SRLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BECOMING NWRLY IN ITS WAKE. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY MORN...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE OVER PTNS OF NERN WY AND WRN SD.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...77
000
FXUS63 KUNR 241745
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1145 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
25-30 KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 25-30 KTS UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON AND THEN GRADUALLY
DECREASE...SO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 553 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
12Z KUNR SOUNDING SHOWS 55KT WINDS IN THE 800-750MB LAYER...BELOW
STRONG INVERSION. APPEARS THAT INVERSION HEIGHT MAY BE A LITTLE
TOO HIGH FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS.
THEREFORE HAVE DROPPED THE HIGH WIND WARNING AN HOUR EARLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
WYOMING INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. WINDS HAVE BEEN DECREASING ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING OVERNIGHT AND WILL LET HIGH WIND WARNING EXPIRE.
KUNR VWP HAS 70KT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE INVERSION LEVEL LOWERING OVER THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...THUS INCREASING THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS IN NORTHERN
BLACK HILLS/FOOTHILLS.
SURFACE TROF MOVES EAST TODAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW
FOR GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS TODAY...WITH
A PERIOD OF WINDS NEAR LOW END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. BIGGEST
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MIXING CAN OCCUR BEFORE LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENS. WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE TROF
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LACK OF UPPER FORCING
AND DECENT CAP...MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT IN
BROAD AREA OF 850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND 250-500J/KG MUCAPE.
WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING ON
SATURDAY...WITH TROF/WARM FRONT ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER.
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON SBCAPE
REACHES 2000-2500J/KG. MODERATE SHEAR WILL ALLOW A FEW
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
PERSISTENT TROF ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL KEEP THE
NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAILY CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE AS
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION...AND WEAK ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROF INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
LCL MVFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU NERN WY
INTO WRN SD THIS AFT. GUSTY SRLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BECOMING NWRLY IN ITS WAKE. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY MORN...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE OVER PTNS OF NERN WY AND WRN SD.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ046-047-049.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...77
000
FXUS63 KUNR 241549
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
949 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
25-30 KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 25-30 KTS UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON AND THEN GRADUALLY
DECREASE...SO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 553 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
12Z KUNR SOUNDING SHOWS 55KT WINDS IN THE 800-750MB LAYER...BELOW
STRONG INVERSION. APPEARS THAT INVERSION HEIGHT MAY BE A LITTLE
TOO HIGH FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS.
THEREFORE HAVE DROPPED THE HIGH WIND WARNING AN HOUR EARLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
WYOMING INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. WINDS HAVE BEEN DECREASING ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING OVERNIGHT AND WILL LET HIGH WIND WARNING EXPIRE.
KUNR VWP HAS 70KT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE INVERSION LEVEL LOWERING OVER THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...THUS INCREASING THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS IN NORTHERN
BLACK HILLS/FOOTHILLS.
SURFACE TROF MOVES EAST TODAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW
FOR GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS TODAY...WITH
A PERIOD OF WINDS NEAR LOW END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. BIGGEST
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MIXING CAN OCCUR BEFORE LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENS. WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE TROF
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LACK OF UPPER FORCING
AND DECENT CAP...MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT IN
BROAD AREA OF 850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND 250-500J/KG MUCAPE.
WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING ON
SATURDAY...WITH TROF/WARM FRONT ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER.
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON SBCAPE
REACHES 2000-2500J/KG. MODERATE SHEAR WILL ALLOW A FEW
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
PERSISTENT TROF ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL KEEP THE
NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAILY CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE AS
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION...AND WEAK ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROF INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA...FROM KRAP SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH 18Z THIS MORNING. STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 35KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN SD PLAINS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH...AND TURN MORE WESTERLY...FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS A
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ046-047-049.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15
000
FXUS63 KUNR 241159
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
559 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 553 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
12Z KUNR SOUNDING SHOWS 55KT WINDS IN THE 800-750MB LAYER...BELOW
STRONG INVERSION. APPEARS THAT INVERSION HEIGHT MAY BE A LITTLE
TOO HIGH FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS.
THEREFORE HAVE DROPPED THE HIGH WIND WARNING AN HOUR EARLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
WYOMING INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. WINDS HAVE BEEN DECREASING ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING OVERNIGHT AND WILL LET HIGH WIND WARNING EXPIRE.
KUNR VWP HAS 70KT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE INVERSION LEVEL LOWERING OVER THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...THUS INCREASING THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS IN NORTHERN
BLACK HILLS/FOOTHILLS.
SURFACE TROF MOVES EAST TODAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW
FOR GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS TODAY...WITH
A PERIOD OF WINDS NEAR LOW END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. BIGGEST
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MIXING CAN OCCUR BEFORE LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENS. WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE TROF
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LACK OF UPPER FORCING
AND DECENT CAP...MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT IN
BROAD AREA OF 850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND 250-500J/KG MUCAPE.
WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING ON
SATURDAY...WITH TROF/WARM FRONT ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER.
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON SBCAPE
REACHES 2000-2500J/KG. MODERATE SHEAR WILL ALLOW A FEW
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
PERSISTENT TROF ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL KEEP THE
NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAILY CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE AS
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION...AND WEAK ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROF INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA...FROM KRAP SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH 18Z THIS MORNING. STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 35KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN SD PLAINS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH...AND TURN MORE WESTERLY...FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS A
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15
000
FXUS63 KUNR 240902
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
302 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
WYOMING INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. WINDS HAVE BEEN DECREASING ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING OVERNIGHT AND WILL LET HIGH WIND WARNING EXPIRE.
KUNR VWP HAS 70KT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE INVERSION LEVEL LOWERING OVER THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...THUS INCREASING THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS IN NORTHERN
BLACK HILLS/FOOTHILLS.
SURFACE TROF MOVES EAST TODAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW
FOR GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS TODAY...WITH
A PERIOD OF WINDS NEAR LOW END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. BIGGEST
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MIXING CAN OCCUR BEFORE LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENS. WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE TROF
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LACK OF UPPER FORCING
AND DECENT CAP...MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT IN
BROAD AREA OF 850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND 250-500J/KG MUCAPE.
WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING ON
SATURDAY...WITH TROF/WARM FRONT ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER.
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON SBCAPE
REACHES 2000-2500J/KG. MODERATE SHEAR WILL ALLOW A FEW
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
PERSISTENT TROF ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL KEEP THE
NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAILY CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE AS
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION...AND WEAK ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROF INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA...FROM KRAP SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH 18Z THIS MORNING. STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 35KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN SD PLAINS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH...AND TURN MORE WESTERLY...FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS A
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR SDZ024-025-072.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WYZ057.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15
000
FXUS63 KUNR 240457
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1057 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
FRI MORNING WITH STRONG S-SE WINDS. GUSTS TO 50KT WL CON OVR NERN
WY UNTIL EARLY FRI MRNG...AND HIGH WINDS WL DVLP OVR NORTHERN
BLACK HILLS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. LOW LVL WIND SHEAR AT KRAP AS
SFC WINDS DECOUPLE AND DOPPLER WIND PROFILE SHWG 60KTS JUST ABV
SFC. WINDS WL DCRS AND SWITCH TO THE NW-N LATE MRNG-EARLY AFTN AS
SFC TROF CROSSES THE AREA. MVFR CIGS WL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS
SWRN SD AS MSTR IS TRANSPORTED NWD ALG LOW LVL JET...ALG WITH A
SLGT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR SDZ024-025-072.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ057.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ054>056-058.
&&
$$
AVIATION...55
000
FXUS63 KUNR 240327
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
927 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CRESTING OVER FORECAST AREA...WITH AREA OF
THICKER CLOUDS MOVING EAST AND SW FLOW INCREASING ALOFT. A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER NORTHEASTERN WY WITH GUSTS STILL
>60 MPH OVER CAMPBELL CO. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE
NORTHERN HILLS TONIGHT...WITH S-SW WINDS OVER 60 MPH INCREASING
BELOW THE INVERSION. A 73 MPH GUST ALREADY REPORTED S OF SUNDANCE.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER NORTHWESTERN SD...SO WILL CANCEL THE
WIND ADVISORY.
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN-SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...LOW LEVEL JET...CAPE
AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE SFC TROF WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
FRI MORNING WITH STRONG S-SE WINDS. GUSTS TO 50KT POSSIBLE OVR
NERN WY OVERNIGHT...AND HIGH WINDS WL DVLP OVR NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING. LOW LVL WIND SHEAR
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TONIGHT AT KRAP AS SFC WINDS DECOUPLE AND
WINDS ABV THE GROUND CONT AROUND 45KTS. WINDS WL DCRS AND SWITCH
TO THE NW-N FRI AFTN AS SFC TROF CROSSES THE AREA. MVFR CIGS WL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS WRN SD PLAINS AS MSTR IS TRANSPORTED NWD
ALG LOW LVL JET.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR SDZ024-025-072.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-026-
031-073.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ025-072.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ057.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ054>056-058.
&&
$$
UPDATE...55
AVIATION...55
000
FXUS63 KUNR 232331
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
531 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LOW
OVER THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND AN APPROACHING LOW FROM THE WEST CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN 25-35 KTS GUSTING OVER 50
KTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING. SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...AND CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING. TEMPS ARE
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STAY TIGHT OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...KEEPING WINDS STRONG ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 40-50 KTS ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING WILL ALLOW THE HIGH WINDS TO CONTINUE UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED TO BE MET THROUGH
EARLY MORNING FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. A VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN HILLS LATE THIS
EVENING. THE INVERSION WILL LOWER BELOW 800 MB OVERNIGHT...WITH
WINDS BELOW THE INVERSION OF 50 TO 60 KTS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR A DOWNSLOPING HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HILLS AND THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN FOOTHILLS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS OF 40 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 KTS ARE
EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS.
FARTHER EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...CAPE AND THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID-40S TO MID-50S.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. BEST
FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN SD. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID-40S TO MID-50S.
&&
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
MEAN TROF WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE WRN CONUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM NERN WY THROUGH THE NEB PANHANDLE WITH MOIST E/SE BL
FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWFA...ESPECIALLY WRN/CNTRL SD. BEST FOCUS
FOR DAILY CONVECTION WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE BOUNDARY WITH HIGHEST
POPS CONCENTRATED FROM NWRN SD THROUGH SCNTRL SD. AFTER THIS
WEEKEND...DAILY CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PERSISTENT
SW FLOW ALOFT. THERE ARE INDICATIONS AMONGST THE MODELS OF A
SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS MID/LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD PROVIDE WDSPRD SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
FRI MORNING WITH STRONG S-SE WINDS. GUSTS TO 50KT POSSIBLE OVR
NERN WY OVERNIGHT...AND HIGH WINDS WL DVLP OVR NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING. LOW LVL WIND SHEAR
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TONIGHT AT KRAP AS SFC WINDS DECOUPLE AND
WINDS ABV THE GROUND CONT AROUND 45KTS. WINDS WL DCRS AND SWITCH
TO THE NW-N FRI AFTN AS SFC TROF CROSSES THE AREA. MVFR CIGS WL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS WRN SD PLAINS AS MSTR IS TRANSPORTED NWD
ALG LOW LVL JET.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
SDZ024-025-072.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-026-
031-073.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ025-072.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
WYZ057.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ054>056-058.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...55
000
FXUS63 KUNR 232021
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
221 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LOW
OVER THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND AN APPROACHING LOW FROM THE WEST CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN 25-35 KTS GUSTING OVER 50
KTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING. SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...AND CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING. TEMPS ARE
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STAY TIGHT OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...KEEPING WINDS STRONG ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 40-50 KTS ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING WILL ALLOW THE HIGH WINDS TO CONTINUE UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED TO BE MET THROUGH
EARLY MORNING FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. A VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN HILLS LATE THIS
EVENING. THE INVERSION WILL LOWER BELOW 800 MB OVERNIGHT...WITH
WINDS BELOW THE INVERSION OF 50 TO 60 KTS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR A DOWNSLOPING HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HILLS AND THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN FOOTHILLS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS OF 40 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 KTS ARE
EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS.
FARTHER EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...CAPE AND THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID-40S TO MID-50S.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. BEST
FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN SD. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID-40S TO MID-50S.
&&
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
MEAN TROF WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE WRN CONUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM NERN WY THROUGH THE NEB PANHANDLE WITH MOIST E/SE BL
FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWFA...ESPECIALLY WRN/CNTRL SD. BEST FOCUS
FOR DAILY CONVECTION WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE BOUNDARY WITH HIGHEST
POPS CONCENTRATED FROM NWRN SD THROUGH SCNTRL SD. AFTER THIS
WEEKEND...DAILY CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PERSISTENT
SW FLOW ALOFT. THERE ARE INDICATIONS AMONGST THE MODELS OF A
SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS MID/LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD PROVIDE WDSPRD SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
A SMALL AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY THIS AFT ACROSS
NERN WY BEFORE DISSIPATING. VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE SOME ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. STRONG SE WINDS GUSTING
TO AROUND 45KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NERN WY THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 40KTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN SD
PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS OVER 50KTS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NRN BLKHLS/FOOTHILLS AREA. LO LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AT THE KRAP TERMINAL AS SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLE AND WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE CONTINUE AT AROUND 45KTS.
STRONG WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY AS A
SURFACE TROF MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
SDZ024-025-072.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-026-
031-073.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ025-072.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
WYZ057.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ054>056-058.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
000
FXUS63 KUNR 231804
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1204 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
SURFACE MAP HAS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING IN FROM WYOMING. PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN IS BECOMING
TIGHTER...AND SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING ARE 25 TO 35
KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 50 KTS.
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...LOOSENING A LITTLE EARLIER
OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. EXTENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND
ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY. A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER
THE NORTHERN HILLS LATE THIS EVENING...AND WITH 50-60 KT WINDS
BELOW THE 800 MB INVERSION...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND THE
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN FOOTHILLS. ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR THIS AREA FROM LATE THIS EVENING TO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WHEN WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 535 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPDATED FORECAST TO ISSUE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
WYOMING. A FEW LOCATIONS ALREADY GUSTING TO 50 MPH. 06Z NAM/10Z
RAP SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING TO 45-50 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. 900MB GEOSTROPHIC WIND AS HIGH AS 65 KTS. HIGH WIND
WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE 06Z NAM SHOW POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 208 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WITH LEE SIDE TROF ACROSS MONTANA/WYOMING. LARGE UPPER
LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH
3-4MB/3HR PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS MONTANA WILL RESULT IN WINDY
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA. WIND GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH LIKELY. WITH UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG INVERSION...WILL BE DRY TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT...40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET IS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WHILE STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH WESTERN WYOMING
INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. 2-3C/HR 850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION
DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH MUCAPE AROUND
250J/KG...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT. AS UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO EASTERN MONTANA
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MODERATE Q-G FORCING PASSES THROUGH
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY
SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST EARLY IN THE DAY. HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON
POPS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.
&&
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 208 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THIS FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BRINGING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LEE TROF/DRY LINE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS FAR EASTERN MT AND NORTHEASTERN WY DURING THE PERIOD...WITH
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING INSTABILITY TO THE EAST OF
THE TROF ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES STILL LOOKING TO BE ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE RISK WILL DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES...WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS GENERAL PATTERN CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
A SMALL AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY THIS AFT ACROSS
NERN WY BEFORE DISSIPATING. VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE SOME ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. STRONG SE WINDS GUSTING
TO AROUND 45KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NERN WY THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 40KTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN SD
PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS OVER 50KTS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NRN BLKHLS/FOOTHILLS AREA. LO LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AT THE KRAP TERMINAL AS SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLE AND WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE CONTINUE AT AROUND 45KTS.
STRONG WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY AS A
SURFACE TROF MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
SDZ024-025-072.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-026-
031-073.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ025-072.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
WYZ057.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ054>056-058.
&&
$$
UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JOHNSON
000
FXUS63 KUNR 231705
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1105 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 535 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPDATED FORECAST TO ISSUE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
WYOMING. A FEW LOCATIONS ALREADY GUSTING TO 50 MPH. 06Z NAM/10Z
RAP SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING TO 45-50 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. 900MB GEOSTROPHIC WIND AS HIGH AS 65 KTS. HIGH WIND
WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE 06Z NAM SHOW POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 208 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WITH LEE SIDE TROF ACROSS MONTANA/WYOMING. LARGE UPPER
LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH
3-4MB/3HR PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS MONTANA WILL RESULT IN WINDY
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA. WIND GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH LIKELY. WITH UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG INVERSION...WILL BE DRY TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT...40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET IS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WHILE STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH WESTERN WYOMING
INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. 2-3C/HR 850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION
DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH MUCAPE AROUND
250J/KG...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT. AS UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO EASTERN MONTANA
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MODERATE Q-G FORCING PASSES THROUGH
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY
SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST EARLY IN THE DAY. HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON
POPS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.
&&
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 208 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THIS FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BRINGING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LEE TROF/DRY LINE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS FAR EASTERN MT AND NORTHEASTERN WY DURING THE PERIOD...WITH
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING INSTABILITY TO THE EAST OF
THE TROF ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES STILL LOOKING TO BE ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE RISK WILL DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES...WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS GENERAL PATTERN CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
A SMALL AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY THIS AFT ACROSS
NERN WY BEFORE DISSIPATING. VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE SOME ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. STRONG SE WINDS GUSTING
TO AROUND 45KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NERN WY THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 40KTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN SD
PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS OVER 50KTS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NRN BLKHLS/FOOTHILLS AREA. LO LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AT THE KRAP TERMINAL AS SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLE AND WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE CONTINUE AT AROUND 45KTS.
STRONG WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY AS A
SURFACE TROF MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-
025-026-031-072-073.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ054>056-058.
&&
$$
UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JOHNSON
000
FXUS63 KUNR 231227
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
627 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 535 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPDATED FORECAST TO ISSUE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
WYOMING. A FEW LOCATIONS ALREADY GUSTING TO 50 MPH. 06Z NAM/10Z
RAP SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING TO 45-50 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. 900MB GEOSTROPHIC WIND AS HIGH AS 65 KTS. HIGH WIND
WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE 06Z NAM SHOW POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 208 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WITH LEE SIDE TROF ACROSS MONTANA/WYOMING. LARGE UPPER
LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH
3-4MB/3HR PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS MONTANA WILL RESULT IN WINDY
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA. WIND GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH LIKELY. WITH UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG INVERSION...WILL BE DRY TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT...40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET IS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WHILE STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH WESTERN WYOMING
INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. 2-3C/HR 850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION
DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH MUCAPE AROUND
250J/KG...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT. AS UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO EASTERN MONTANA
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MODERATE Q-G FORCING PASSES THROUGH
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY
SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST EARLY IN THE DAY. HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON
POPS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.
&&
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 208 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THIS FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BRINGING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LEE TROF/DRY LINE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS FAR EASTERN MT AND NORTHEASTERN WY DURING THE PERIOD...WITH
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING INSTABILITY TO THE EAST OF
THE TROF ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES STILL LOOKING TO BE ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE RISK WILL DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES...WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS GENERAL PATTERN CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 626 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN WY AND
FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO LINGER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY TODAY AND SPREAD ACROSS
MUCH OF FAR WESTERN SD BY 18Z. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN WY...WHERE GUSTS TO 45-50 HTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN
SD THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-
025-026-031-072-073.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ054>056-058.
&&
$$
UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26
000
FXUS63 KUNR 231147
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
547 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 535 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPDATED FORECAST TO ISSUE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
WYOMING. A FEW LOCATIONS ALREADY GUSTING TO 50 MPH. 06Z NAM/10Z
RAP SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING TO 45-50 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. 900MB GEOSTROPHIC WIND AS HIGH AS 65 KTS. HIGH WIND
WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE 06Z NAM SHOW POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 208 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WITH LEE SIDE TROF ACROSS MONTANA/WYOMING. LARGE UPPER
LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH
3-4MB/3HR PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS MONTANA WILL RESULT IN WINDY
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA. WIND GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH LIKELY. WITH UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG INVERSION...WILL BE DRY TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT...40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET IS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WHILE STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH WESTERN WYOMING
INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. 2-3C/HR 850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION
DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH MUCAPE AROUND
250J/KG...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT. AS UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO EASTERN MONTANA
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MODERATE Q-G FORCING PASSES THROUGH
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY
SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST EARLY IN THE DAY. HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON
POPS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.
&&
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 208 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THIS FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BRINGING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LEE TROF/DRY LINE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS FAR EASTERN MT AND NORTHEASTERN WY DURING THE PERIOD...WITH
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING INSTABILITY TO THE EAST OF
THE TROF ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES STILL LOOKING TO BE ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE RISK WILL DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES...WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS GENERAL PATTERN CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 208 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN WY AND
SOUTHWESTERN SD THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY AND WESTERN SD THIS MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY AND FAR NORTHWESTERN SD...WHERE GUSTS
TO NEAR 45 HTS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-025-026-031-072-073.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ054>056-058.
&&
$$
UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26
000
FXUS63 KUNR 230859
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
259 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 208 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WITH LEE SIDE TROF ACROSS MONTANA/WYOMING. LARGE UPPER
LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH
3-4MB/3HR PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS MONTANA WILL RESULT IN WINDY
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA. WIND GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH LIKELY. WITH UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG INVERSION...WILL BE DRY TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT...40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET IS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WHILE STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH WESTERN WYOMING
INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. 2-3C/HR 850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION
DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH MUCAPE AROUND
250J/KG...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT. AS UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO EASTERN MONTANA
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MODERATE Q-G FORCING PASSES THROUGH
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY
SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST EARLY IN THE DAY. HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON
POPS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 208 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THIS FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BRINGING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LEE TROF/DRY LINE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS FAR EASTERN MT AND NORTHEASTERN WY DURING THE PERIOD...WITH
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING INSTABILITY TO THE EAST OF
THE TROF ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES STILL LOOKING TO BE ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE RISK WILL DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES...WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS GENERAL PATTERN CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 208 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN WY AND
SOUTHWESTERN SD THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY AND WESTERN SD THIS MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY AND FAR NORTHWESTERN SD...WHERE GUSTS
TO NEAR 45 HTS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-025-026-031-072-073.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26
000
FXUS63 KUNR 230517
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1117 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORUTH IS CURRENTLY CLEAR OUT
THE CLOUDS OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD TONIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD
COVER AGAIN OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO THE
LOCATION OF THE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
20Z UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER IOWA AND THE
NORTHWEST CONUS...WITH A RIDGE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW
CLOUDS ARE DRAPED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT HAVE BEEN ERODING SINCE
LATE MORNING. AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE ACCOMPANIED THE FOG/LOW
CLOUDS...WITH RADAR PICKING UP ON VERY LIGHT RETURNS. THE SURFACE
HIGH IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 40S TO 50S.
WINDS WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EASTWARD. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS THE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS PUSH MOISTURE AGAINST THE
HILLS. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING IN
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING...BUT THE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION THERE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
ON THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-35 KTS GUSTING TO NEAR 50 KTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THIS POINT
IT LOOKS LIKE A HIGH-END WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS...SO
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST
PRESSURE FALLS WILL BE ACROSS WYOMING...AND SO LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO DETERMINE IF A HIGH WIND WARNING IS NECESSARY FOR NORTHEAST
WYOMING. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH 50S IN THE
BLACK HILLS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THURSDAY EVENING...BUT SOME LOCATIONS
MAY REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE
REGION...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...ALONG WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET AND
750-1000 J/KG MUCAPE DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z
FRIDAY...SO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THERE. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STARTS TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST
SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS WORKS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROF
WITH UPPER LOW DEEPENS AND STARTS SLIDING EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
LOW CIGS WILL RE-DEVELOP TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
012>014-025-026-031-072-073.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...10
000
FXUS63 KUNR 230212
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
812 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORUTH IS CURRENTLY CLEAR OUT
THE CLOUDS OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD TONIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD
COVER AGAIN OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO THE
LOCATION OF THE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
20Z UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER IOWA AND THE
NORTHWEST CONUS...WITH A RIDGE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW
CLOUDS ARE DRAPED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT HAVE BEEN ERODING SINCE
LATE MORNING. AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE ACCOMPANIED THE FOG/LOW
CLOUDS...WITH RADAR PICKING UP ON VERY LIGHT RETURNS. THE SURFACE
HIGH IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 40S TO 50S.
WINDS WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EASTWARD. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS THE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS PUSH MOISTURE AGAINST THE
HILLS. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING IN
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING...BUT THE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION THERE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
ON THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-35 KTS GUSTING TO NEAR 50 KTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THIS POINT
IT LOOKS LIKE A HIGH-END WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS...SO
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST
PRESSURE FALLS WILL BE ACROSS WYOMING...AND SO LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO DETERMINE IF A HIGH WIND WARNING IS NECESSARY FOR NORTHEAST
WYOMING. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH 50S IN THE
BLACK HILLS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THURSDAY EVENING...BUT SOME LOCATIONS
MAY REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE
REGION...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...ALONG WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET AND
750-1000 J/KG MUCAPE DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z
FRIDAY...SO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THERE. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STARTS TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST
SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS WORKS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROF
WITH UPPER LOW DEEPENS AND STARTS SLIDING EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
LOW CIGS WILL RE-DEVELOP TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
012>014-025-026-031-072-073.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...10
000
FXUS63 KUNR 222329
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
529 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
20Z UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER IOWA AND THE
NORTHWEST CONUS...WITH A RIDGE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW
CLOUDS ARE DRAPED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT HAVE BEEN ERODING SINCE
LATE MORNING. AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE ACCOMPANIED THE FOG/LOW
CLOUDS...WITH RADAR PICKING UP ON VERY LIGHT RETURNS. THE SURFACE
HIGH IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 40S TO 50S.
WINDS WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EASTWARD. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS THE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS PUSH MOISTURE AGAINST THE
HILLS. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING IN
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING...BUT THE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION THERE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
ON THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-35 KTS GUSTING TO NEAR 50 KTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THIS POINT
IT LOOKS LIKE A HIGH-END WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS...SO
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST
PRESSURE FALLS WILL BE ACROSS WYOMING...AND SO LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO DETERMINE IF A HIGH WIND WARNING IS NECESSARY FOR NORTHEAST
WYOMING. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH 50S IN THE
BLACK HILLS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THURSDAY EVENING...BUT SOME LOCATIONS
MAY REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE
REGION...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...ALONG WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET AND
750-1000 J/KG MUCAPE DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z
FRIDAY...SO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THERE. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STARTS TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST
SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS WORKS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROF
WITH UPPER LOW DEEPENS AND STARTS SLIDING EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
LOW CIGS WILL RE-DEVELOP TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
012>014-025-026-031-072-073.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...10
000
FXUS63 KUNR 222044
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
244 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
20Z UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER IOWA AND THE
NORTHWEST CONUS...WITH A RIDGE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW
CLOUDS ARE DRAPED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT HAVE BEEN ERODING SINCE
LATE MORNING. AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE ACCOMPANIED THE FOG/LOW
CLOUDS...WITH RADAR PICKING UP ON VERY LIGHT RETURNS. THE SURFACE
HIGH IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 40S TO 50S.
WINDS WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EASTWARD. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS THE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS PUSH MOISTURE AGAINST THE
HILLS. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING IN
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING...BUT THE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION THERE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
ON THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-35 KTS GUSTING TO NEAR 50 KTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THIS POINT
IT LOOKS LIKE A HIGH-END WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS...SO
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST
PRESSURE FALLS WILL BE ACROSS WYOMING...AND SO LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO DETERMINE IF A HIGH WIND WARNING IS NECESSARY FOR NORTHEAST
WYOMING. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH 50S IN THE
BLACK HILLS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THURSDAY EVENING...BUT SOME LOCATIONS
MAY REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE
REGION...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...ALONG WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET AND
750-1000 J/KG MUCAPE DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z
FRIDAY...SO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THERE. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STARTS TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST
SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS WORKS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROF
WITH UPPER LOW DEEPENS AND STARTS SLIDING EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
WIDESPREAD MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS OVER NORTHEAST WY INTO THE SD PLAINS
MAY IMPROVE BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CIGS WILL THEN RE-DEVELOP
THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SD PLAINS INTO
PTNS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
012>014-025-026-031-072-073.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...77
000
FXUS63 KUNR 221748
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1148 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE PUSHING MOISTURE AGAINST THE
HILLS...CREATING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND AREAS TO
THE EAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS LIFTING AROUND
MIDDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THESE LOW CLOUDS STICK
AROUND...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET AS WARM...SO WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THAT AS THE DAY GOES ON. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
THE PAST FEW DAYS IS SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS
ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL STRATUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY AS WINDS BECOME NE-E THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE
THE AREA THURSDAY WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
MONTANA/WYOMING WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL RESULT
IN WINDY CONDITIONS. SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WITH LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND STRONG CAP WIN
PLACE WILL NOT ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND UPPER LOW SPINS IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC NW.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AND BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LEE
TROUGH/DRY LINE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN MT AND
EASTERN WY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL PERSIST TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AREA
AND THE PLAINS TO THE EAST. THIS IS WHERE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE AVERAGE
LEVELS ON FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
WIDESPREAD MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS OVER NORTHEAST WY INTO THE SD PLAINS
MAY IMPROVE BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CIGS WILL THEN RE-DEVELOP
THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SD PLAINS INTO
PTNS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...77
000
FXUS63 KUNR 221520
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
920 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE PUSHING MOISTURE AGAINST THE
HILLS...CREATING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND AREAS TO
THE EAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS LIFTING AROUND
MIDDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THESE LOW CLOUDS STICK
AROUND...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET AS WARM...SO WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THAT AS THE DAY GOES ON. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
THE PAST FEW DAYS IS SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS
ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL STRATUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY AS WINDS BECOME NE-E THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE
THE AREA THURSDAY WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
MONTANA/WYOMING WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL RESULT
IN WINDY CONDITIONS. SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WITH LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND STRONG CAP WIN
PLACE WILL NOT ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND UPPER LOW SPINS IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC NW.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AND BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LEE
TROUGH/DRY LINE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN MT AND
EASTERN WY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL PERSIST TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AREA
AND THE PLAINS TO THE EAST. THIS IS WHERE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE AVERAGE
LEVELS ON FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST ACROSS AREAS
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS THIS MORNING. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BY MIDDAY...AND OVER MUCH
OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AT LEAST
SOME AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
PLAINS TONIGHT.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26
000
FXUS63 KUNR 221128
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
528 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
THE PAST FEW DAYS IS SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS
ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL STRATUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY AS WINDS BECOME NE-E THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE
THE AREA THURSDAY WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
MONTANA/WYOMING WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL RESULT
IN WINDY CONDITIONS. SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WITH LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND STRONG CAP WIN
PLACE WILL NOT ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND UPPER LOW SPINS IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC NW.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AND BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LEE
TROUGH/DRY LINE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN MT AND
EASTERN WY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL PERSIST TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AREA
AND THE PLAINS TO THE EAST. THIS IS WHERE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE AVERAGE
LEVELS ON FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST ACROSS AREAS
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS THIS MORNING. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BY MIDDAY...AND OVER MUCH
OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AT LEAST
SOME AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
PLAINS TONIGHT.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26
000
FXUS63 KUNR 220850
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
250 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
THE PAST FEW DAYS IS SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS
ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL STRATUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY AS WINDS BECOME NE-E THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE
THE AREA THURSDAY WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
MONTANA/WYOMING WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL RESULT
IN WINDY CONDITIONS. SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WITH LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND STRONG CAP WIN
PLACE WILL NOT ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND UPPER LOW SPINS IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC NW.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AND BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LEE
TROUGH/DRY LINE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN MT AND
EASTERN WY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL PERSIST TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AREA
AND THE PLAINS TO THE EAST. THIS IS WHERE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE AVERAGE
LEVELS ON FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS THIS MORNING. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BY
MIDDAY...AND OVER MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AT LEAST SOME AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26
000
FXUS63 KUNR 220507
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1107 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 755 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
WIND SPEED AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BOTH DECREASING THIS EVENING.
UPDATED FORECAST TO BETTER DEPICT THOSE TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
19Z UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES...AND ANOTHER LOW MOVING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC. CLOUDS BLANKET THE DAKOTAS...AND SHOWERS ARE
ROTATING COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THE LOW. SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED
QUITE A BIT DURING THE MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AS THE LOW PUSHES EASTWARD. WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH DECREASING
CHANCES TOWARDS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE...AND TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S AND MID
60S. THE HILLS MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AS LIFTED INDICES
THERE BECOME NEGATIVE. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
40S...WITH 30S IN THE BLACK HILLS.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PEAKS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY BRINGING
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE CWA. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN WY AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST US
SPINS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT BREEZY/WINDY AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST
WY/WESTERN SD. HAVE REMOVED POPS GIVEN DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
UNDER RISING HEIGHT REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
GUIDANCE GIVEN RECENT WET WEATHER.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA WITH A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. QUASI-STATIONARY LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
FROM MT INTO SOUTHEAST WY/WESTERN NE. PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASINGLY MOIST TD/S INTO
THE CWA WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DAILY CHANCE FOR TSRA...ALONG A
POTENTIAL ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
ISOLD -SHRA MAY BE FOUND OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OR REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AND
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10
000
FXUS63 KUNR 220200
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
800 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 755 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
WIND SPEED AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BOTH DECREASING THIS EVENING.
UPDATED FORECAST TO BETTER DEPICT THOSE TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
19Z UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES...AND ANOTHER LOW MOVING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC. CLOUDS BLANKET THE DAKOTAS...AND SHOWERS ARE
ROTATING COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THE LOW. SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED
QUITE A BIT DURING THE MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AS THE LOW PUSHES EASTWARD. WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH DECREASING
CHANCES TOWARDS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE...AND TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S AND MID
60S. THE HILLS MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AS LIFTED INDICES
THERE BECOME NEGATIVE. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
40S...WITH 30S IN THE BLACK HILLS.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PEAKS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY BRINGING
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE CWA. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN WY AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST US
SPINS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT BREEZY/WINDY AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST
WY/WESTERN SD. HAVE REMOVED POPS GIVEN DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
UNDER RISING HEIGHT REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
GUIDANCE GIVEN RECENT WET WEATHER.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA WITH A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. QUASI-STATIONARY LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
FROM MT INTO SOUTHEAST WY/WESTERN NE. PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASINGLY MOIST TD/S INTO
THE CWA WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DAILY CHANCE FOR TSRA...ALONG A
POTENTIAL ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 511 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
ISOLD/SCT -SHRA WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OR
REDEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10
000
FXUS63 KUNR 212313
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
513 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
19Z UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES...AND ANOTHER LOW MOVING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC. CLOUDS BLANKET THE DAKOTAS...AND SHOWERS ARE
ROTATING COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THE LOW. SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED
QUITE A BIT DURING THE MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AS THE LOW PUSHES EASTWARD. WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH DECREASING
CHANCES TOWARDS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE...AND TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S AND MID
60S. THE HILLS MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AS LIFTED INDICES
THERE BECOME NEGATIVE. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
40S...WITH 30S IN THE BLACK HILLS.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PEAKS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY BRINGING
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE CWA. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN WY AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST US
SPINS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT BREEZY/WINDY AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST
WY/WESTERN SD. HAVE REMOVED POPS GIVEN DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
UNDER RISING HEIGHT REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
GUIDANCE GIVEN RECENT WET WEATHER.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA WITH A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. QUASI-STATIONARY LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
FROM MT INTO SOUTHEAST WY/WESTERN NE. PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASINGLY MOIST TD/S INTO
THE CWA WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DAILY CHANCE FOR TSRA...ALONG A
POTENTIAL ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 511 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
ISOLD/SCT -SHRA WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OR
REDEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10
| 
