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000
FXUS63 KUNR 310910
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
310 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN ND.
COLDER AIR HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SCALE TROF OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS...A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES REGION...AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. MOIST...UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW
LEVELS IS BRINGING A LARGE BAND OF STRATUS INTO THE AREA...WITH
SOME FOG DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY. TEMPS ARE
MOSTLY IN THE 30S OVER CLOUD COVERED AREAS...WITH SOME 20S WHERE
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR.

THE GENERALLY PLEASANT WEATHER OF LATE WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NOVEMBER AS RIDGING PATTERN MOSTLY STAYS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.
AFTER A GLOOMY START THIS MORNING IN MANY AREAS...WITH SOME AREAS OF
FOG...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS
AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...FAR EASTERN MT...AND
NORTHEASTERN WY WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MOST OF THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WITH SOME GUSTS
OF 45 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TOWARD
SUNSET...BUT REMAIN BREEZY INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN MANY AREAS. FOR
HALLOWEEN ACTIVITIES THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE MOSTLY
IN THE 40S...WITH 30S OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD.
SOME WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
30S.

UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MOST AREAS FOR
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TOWARD CENTRAL SD
TO THE LOWER 70S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND MUCH OF THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
SD PLAINS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED...WITH SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD...WITH GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST WY SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. THE
MAIN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AND WILL
HEAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO SASKATCHEWAN AS A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT
SWINGS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE THE SECONDARY LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. DUE
TO THE SPLIT FLOW...THE MAIN FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT WITH THE EXPECTED
PATH OF THE NORTHERN UPPER LOW...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL BE LOCATED
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA....SO HAVE REMOVED THE LOW POPS
THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY IN THE FORECAST OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IN THE FRONTAL ZONE TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER PARTS OF SWRN AND SCNTRL SD ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DRY
AND COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-026-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10









000
FXUS63 KUNR 310423
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1023 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST MB WITH
NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE CWA. 00Z BIS SOUNDING OVERLAID ON
00Z KUNR SOUNDING SUPPORTS ST/FG DEVELOPMENT. LATEST FOG PRODUCT
SHOWED ST STARTING TO ADVANCE SOUTHWEST AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
AND UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES. 00Z RAP/HRRR SHOW ST ACCELERATING
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND ENVELOPING THE BLACK HILLS OVERNIGHT.
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP ON NORTH/EAST SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS.

FORECAST BEING UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR SLOWER ST/BR INTRUSION BASED
ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH SURFACE HIGH
OVER SASKATCHEWAN. LOW STRATUS COVERS MUCH OF ND AND
NORTHERN/EASTERN SD. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ABOUT 10-15 KTS...AND
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S FARTHER
SOUTH.

SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT AND EASTERLY. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AS
WELL...DEVELOPING INTO FOG AS THEY APPROACH HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOG
IS EXPECTED FORM AROUND THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS EVENING AND
EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SD OVERNIGHT...WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN HILLS INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS CENTRAL SD TO THE LOWER
30S IN PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY.

FOG WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE
EAST ON FRIDAY...AND RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE
STRONGEST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF SD...REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND NOON. AREAS
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT DECIDED TO ADD THEM
TO THE WIND ADVISORY. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL SD...TO THE UPPER 50S IN PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN WY.

ANYONE PARTAKING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FRIDAY EVENING WILL HAVE DRY
AND BREEZY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL SD...TO THE MID 50S IN NORTHEASTERN WY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AS STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE. MAIN UPPER LOW SWINGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY...WITH WEAK
COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SECONDARY LOW
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO FOUR CORNERS AREA. WITH SPLITTING UPPER
FLOW...MAIN FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL SLIDE SOUTHWEST AND LOWER OVERNIGHT CREATING IFR VSBYS DUE
TO FOG OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST
WYOMING...WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND THE BLACK HILLS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-026-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...HELGESON








000
FXUS63 KUNR 310150
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
750 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST MB WITH
NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE CWA. 00Z BIS SOUNDING OVERLAID ON
00Z KUNR SOUNDING SUPPORTS ST/FG DEVELOPMENT. LATEST FOG PRODUCT
SHOWED ST STARTING TO ADVANCE SOUTHWEST AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
AND UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES. 00Z RAP/HRRR SHOW ST ACCELERATING
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND ENVELOPING THE BLACK HILLS OVERNIGHT.
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP ON NORTH/EAST SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS.

FORECAST BEING UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR SLOWER ST/BR INTRUSION BASED
ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH SURFACE HIGH
OVER SASKATCHEWAN. LOW STRATUS COVERS MUCH OF ND AND
NORTHERN/EASTERN SD. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ABOUT 10-15 KTS...AND
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S FARTHER
SOUTH.

SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT AND EASTERLY. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AS
WELL...DEVELOPING INTO FOG AS THEY APPROACH HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOG
IS EXPECTED FORM AROUND THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS EVENING AND
EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SD OVERNIGHT...WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN HILLS INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS CENTRAL SD TO THE LOWER
30S IN PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY.

FOG WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE
EAST ON FRIDAY...AND RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE
STRONGEST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF SD...REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND NOON. AREAS
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT DECIDED TO ADD THEM
TO THE WIND ADVISORY. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL SD...TO THE UPPER 50S IN PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN WY.

ANYONE PARTAKING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FRIDAY EVENING WILL HAVE DRY
AND BREEZY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL SD...TO THE MID 50S IN NORTHEASTERN WY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AS STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE. MAIN UPPER LOW SWINGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY...WITH WEAK
COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SECONDARY LOW
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO FOUR CORNERS AREA. WITH SPLITTING UPPER
FLOW...MAIN FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWEST AND DEVELOP THIS EVENING...REACHING THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS CREATING IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG.
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING...WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND
THE BLACK HILLS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-026-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...HELGESON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 310150
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
750 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST MB WITH
NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE CWA. 00Z BIS SOUNDING OVERLAID ON
00Z KUNR SOUNDING SUPPORTS ST/FG DEVELOPMENT. LATEST FOG PRODUCT
SHOWED ST STARTING TO ADVANCE SOUTHWEST AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
AND UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES. 00Z RAP/HRRR SHOW ST ACCELERATING
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND ENVELOPING THE BLACK HILLS OVERNIGHT.
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP ON NORTH/EAST SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS.

FORECAST BEING UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR SLOWER ST/BR INTRUSION BASED
ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH SURFACE HIGH
OVER SASKATCHEWAN. LOW STRATUS COVERS MUCH OF ND AND
NORTHERN/EASTERN SD. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ABOUT 10-15 KTS...AND
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S FARTHER
SOUTH.

SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT AND EASTERLY. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AS
WELL...DEVELOPING INTO FOG AS THEY APPROACH HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOG
IS EXPECTED FORM AROUND THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS EVENING AND
EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SD OVERNIGHT...WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN HILLS INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS CENTRAL SD TO THE LOWER
30S IN PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY.

FOG WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE
EAST ON FRIDAY...AND RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE
STRONGEST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF SD...REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND NOON. AREAS
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT DECIDED TO ADD THEM
TO THE WIND ADVISORY. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL SD...TO THE UPPER 50S IN PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN WY.

ANYONE PARTAKING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FRIDAY EVENING WILL HAVE DRY
AND BREEZY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL SD...TO THE MID 50S IN NORTHEASTERN WY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AS STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE. MAIN UPPER LOW SWINGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY...WITH WEAK
COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SECONDARY LOW
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO FOUR CORNERS AREA. WITH SPLITTING UPPER
FLOW...MAIN FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWEST AND DEVELOP THIS EVENING...REACHING THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS CREATING IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG.
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING...WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND
THE BLACK HILLS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-026-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...HELGESON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 302314
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
514 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH SURFACE HIGH
OVER SASKATCHEWAN. LOW STRATUS COVERS MUCH OF ND AND
NORTHERN/EASTERN SD. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ABOUT 10-15 KTS...AND
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S FARTHER
SOUTH.

SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT AND EASTERLY. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AS
WELL...DEVELOPING INTO FOG AS THEY APPROACH HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOG
IS EXPECTED FORM AROUND THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS EVENING AND
EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SD OVERNIGHT...WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN HILLS INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS CENTRAL SD TO THE LOWER
30S IN PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY.

FOG WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE
EAST ON FRIDAY...AND RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE
STRONGEST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF SD...REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND NOON. AREAS
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT DECIDED TO ADD THEM
TO THE WIND ADVISORY. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL SD...TO THE UPPER 50S IN PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN WY.

ANYONE PARTAKING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FRIDAY EVENING WILL HAVE DRY
AND BREEZY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL SD...TO THE MID 50S IN NORTHEASTERN WY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AS STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE. MAIN UPPER LOW SWINGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY...WITH WEAK
COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SECONDARY LOW
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO FOUR CORNERS AREA. WITH SPLITTING UPPER
FLOW...MAIN FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWEST AND DEVELOP THIS EVENING...REACHING THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS CREATING IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG.
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING...WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND
THE BLACK HILLS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-026-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...HELGESON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 302023
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
223 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH SURFACE HIGH
OVER SASKATCHEWAN. LOW STRATUS COVERS MUCH OF ND AND
NORTHERN/EASTERN SD. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ABOUT 10-15 KTS...AND
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S FARTHER
SOUTH.

SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT AND EASTERLY. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AS
WELL...DEVELOPING INTO FOG AS THEY APPROACH HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOG
IS EXPECTED FORM AROUND THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS EVENING AND
EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SD OVERNIGHT...WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN HILLS INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS CENTRAL SD TO THE LOWER
30S IN PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY.

FOG WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE
EAST ON FRIDAY...AND RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE
STRONGEST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF SD...REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND NOON. AREAS
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT DECIDED TO ADD THEM
TO THE WIND ADVISORY. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL SD...TO THE UPPER 50S IN PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN WY.

ANYONE PARTAKING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FRIDAY EVENING WILL HAVE DRY
AND BREEZY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL SD...TO THE MID 50S IN NORTHEASTERN WY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AS STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE. MAIN UPPER LOW SWINGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY...WITH WEAK
COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SECONDARY LOW
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO FOUR CORNERS AREA. WITH SPLITTING UPPER
FLOW...MAIN FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING...WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBY AROUND THE
BLACK HILLS. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-026-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7








000
FXUS63 KUNR 301648
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1048 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER RIDGING IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS CROSSING WCNTRL CANADA AND QUICKLY PUSHING
INTO THE NRN PLAINS BEHIND A STRONG CANADIAN WAVE HEADING TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
DAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE N/NE. STRATUS
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOLER AIR NOW OVER ERN MT/WRN ND WILL
MOVE INTO THE NW SD PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/STRATUS COULD MAKE TODAYS ACTUAL TEMPS A BIT TRICKY...BUT
FOR NOW AM GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER NW SD...AND
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN WINDS
BECOME MORE NERLY...AND NAM/SREF SHOWING CONSISTENCY WITH BRINGING
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA...EXCEPT THE BLKHLS. AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST...VERY STRONG
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP FRIDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN UNUSUALLY BREEZY WINDS FROM THE S/SE. WINDS MAY EVEN REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA. LOW STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 40S OVER CNTRL SD TO 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER
NE WY. WINDS WILL BEGIN DECREASING IN TIME FOR TRICK OR
TREATING...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY FRI EVNG.


&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF TO EAST AND AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE BEST ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA...SO
ONLY EXPECTING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. COOLER AND DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD
IFR CIGS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING...WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBY AROUND THE BLACK HILLS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...77








000
FXUS63 KUNR 301648
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1048 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER RIDGING IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS CROSSING WCNTRL CANADA AND QUICKLY PUSHING
INTO THE NRN PLAINS BEHIND A STRONG CANADIAN WAVE HEADING TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
DAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE N/NE. STRATUS
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOLER AIR NOW OVER ERN MT/WRN ND WILL
MOVE INTO THE NW SD PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/STRATUS COULD MAKE TODAYS ACTUAL TEMPS A BIT TRICKY...BUT
FOR NOW AM GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER NW SD...AND
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN WINDS
BECOME MORE NERLY...AND NAM/SREF SHOWING CONSISTENCY WITH BRINGING
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA...EXCEPT THE BLKHLS. AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST...VERY STRONG
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP FRIDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN UNUSUALLY BREEZY WINDS FROM THE S/SE. WINDS MAY EVEN REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA. LOW STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 40S OVER CNTRL SD TO 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER
NE WY. WINDS WILL BEGIN DECREASING IN TIME FOR TRICK OR
TREATING...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY FRI EVNG.


&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF TO EAST AND AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE BEST ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA...SO
ONLY EXPECTING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. COOLER AND DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD
IFR CIGS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING...WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBY AROUND THE BLACK HILLS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...77








000
FXUS63 KUNR 300938
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
338 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER RIDGING IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS CROSSING WCNTRL CANADA AND QUICKLY PUSHING
INTO THE NRN PLAINS BEHIND A STRONG CANADIAN WAVE HEADING TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
DAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE N/NE. STRATUS
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOLER AIR NOW OVER ERN MT/WRN ND WILL
MOVE INTO THE NW SD PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/STRATUS COULD MAKE TODAYS ACTUAL TEMPS A BIT TRICKY...BUT
FOR NOW AM GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER NW SD...AND
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN WINDS
BECOME MORE NERLY...AND NAM/SREF SHOWING CONSISTENCY WITH BRINGING
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA...EXCEPT THE BLKHLS. AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST...VERY STRONG
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP FRIDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN UNUSUALLY BREEZY WINDS FROM THE S/SE. WINDS MAY EVEN REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA. LOW STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 40S OVER CNTRL SD TO 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER
NE WY. WINDS WILL BEGIN DECREASING IN TIME FOR TRICK OR
TREATING...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY FRI EVNG.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF TO EAST AND AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE BEST ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA...SO
ONLY EXPECTING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. COOLER AND DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND
18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10








000
FXUS63 KUNR 300524
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1124 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

AN UPPER WAVE IS PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN MT/WY...CREATING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY AND
WESTERN SD. AXIS OF SURFACE TROUGH SITS OVER WESTERN SD. A MINI
BOUNDARY MOVED THROUGH THE RAPID CITY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
CREATED SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...WHICH HAVE SINCE
DECREASED. TEMPS ARE WARMING INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

WAVE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL END EARLY. BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN SLIDING THROUGH THE CWA...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S.

FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS THE
SD PLAINS ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...AS GUIDANCE HAS
A 10-15 DEGREE SPREAD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE THE FRONT WILL
BE MOST EFFECTIVE. MODELS HAVE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY...SO TRENDED COOLER WITH THE HIGHS ACROSS
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL SD. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN
THIS AREA TO THE MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD. ALSO COOLED LOWS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY...RESULTING
IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IN BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND LEE TROF ADVANCING FROM EAST OF THE ROCKIES...CREATING STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF PUSHING INTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE BEST ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD PASS NORTH OF OUR CWA...SO ONLY EXPECTING
SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. COOLER AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ONCE THE TROF PASSES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE ONTO THE SD PLAINS LATER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. AN AREA OF IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST SD
AND PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE ST MAY APPROACH THE
KRAP TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...HELGESON








000
FXUS63 KUNR 292352
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
552 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

AN UPPER WAVE IS PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN MT/WY...CREATING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY AND
WESTERN SD. AXIS OF SURFACE TROUGH SITS OVER WESTERN SD. A MINI
BOUNDARY MOVED THROUGH THE RAPID CITY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
CREATED SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...WHICH HAVE SINCE
DECREASED. TEMPS ARE WARMING INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

WAVE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL END EARLY. BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN SLIDING THROUGH THE CWA...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S.

FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS THE
SD PLAINS ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...AS GUIDANCE HAS
A 10-15 DEGREE SPREAD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE THE FRONT WILL
BE MOST EFFECTIVE. MODELS HAVE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY...SO TRENDED COOLER WITH THE HIGHS ACROSS
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL SD. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN
THIS AREA TO THE MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD. ALSO COOLED LOWS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY...RESULTING
IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IN BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND LEE TROF ADVANCING FROM EAST OF THE ROCKIES...CREATING STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF PUSHING INTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE BEST ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD PASS NORTH OF OUR CWA...SO ONLY EXPECTING
SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. COOLER AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ONCE THE TROF PASSES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 551 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE ONTO THE SD PLAINS LATER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
ACROSS NORTHWEST SD. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITINOS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...HELGESON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 292039
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
239 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

AN UPPER WAVE IS PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN MT/WY...CREATING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY AND
WESTERN SD. AXIS OF SURFACE TROUGH SITS OVER WESTERN SD. A MINI
BOUNDARY MOVED THROUGH THE RAPID CITY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
CREATED SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...WHICH HAVE SINCE
DECREASED. TEMPS ARE WARMING INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

WAVE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL END EARLY. BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN SLIDING THROUGH THE CWA...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S.

FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS THE
SD PLAINS ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...AS GUIDANCE HAS
A 10-15 DEGREE SPREAD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE THE FRONT WILL
BE MOST EFFECTIVE. MODELS HAVE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY...SO TRENDED COOLER WITH THE HIGHS ACROSS
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL SD. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN
THIS AREA TO THE MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD. ALSO COOLED LOWS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY...RESULTING
IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IN BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND LEE TROF ADVANCING FROM EAST OF THE ROCKIES...CREATING STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF PUSHING INTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE BEST ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD PASS NORTH OF OUR CWA...SO ONLY EXPECTING
SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. COOLER AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ONCE THE TROF PASSES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15








000
FXUS63 KUNR 291723
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1123 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS CROSSING THE NRN PLAIN ATTM AHEAD OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DAKOTAS WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MS VALLEY WITH RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE SHORTWAVE
WILL CROSS MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS TODAY BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS
TO THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP TO
NW SD...HOWEVER WITH LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...LITTLE PRECIP IS
EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE NORTH OF THE CWA. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
A SECONDARY AND MUCH STRONGER BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE
NE THU MORNING BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION. HAVE
DROPPED MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE REGION IN BETWEEN SFC HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
LEE TROF ADVANCING FROM EAST OF THE ROCKIES...CREATING STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWFA. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF PUSHING INTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE BEST ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN
STREAM SHOULD PASS NORTH OF OUR CWFA SO ONLY EXPECTING SMALL
CHANCES FOR PCPN AT THIS TIME. COOLER AND DRY WX EXPECTED ONCE THE
TROF PASSES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...15








000
FXUS63 KUNR 290916
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
316 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS CROSSING THE NRN PLAIN ATTM AHEAD OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DAKOTAS WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MS VALLEY WITH RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE SHORTWAVE
WILL CROSS MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS TODAY BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS
TO THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP TO
NW SD...HOWEVER WITH LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...LITTLE PRECIP IS
EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE NORTH OF THE CWA. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
A SECONDARY AND MUCH STRONGER BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE
NE THU MORNING BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION. HAVE
DROPPED MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE REGION IN BETWEEN SFC HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
LEE TROF ADVANCING FROM EAST OF THE ROCKIES...CREATING STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWFA. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF PUSHING INTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE BEST ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN
STREAM SHOULD PASS NORTH OF OUR CWFA SO ONLY EXPECTING SMALL
CHANCES FOR PCPN AT THIS TIME. COOLER AND DRY WX EXPECTED ONCE THE
TROF PASSES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON








000
FXUS63 KUNR 290502
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1102 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE IS PRODUCING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SD PLAINS. TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S RIGHT NOW. LOW CLOUDS LINGERING OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND SHIFTING
EASTWARD.

SEASONABLE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE WESTERN RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY... BRINGING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WARMER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AS WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY TO THE WEST BY THE
EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. SKIES WILL CLEAR
OUT WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MILDER LOWS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
TENDENCIES FOR THE NE PAC UPPER TROUGH REMAIN WITH OPEN FLOW
DOWNSTREAM. FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
KEEP THE VERY COLD AIR WELL NORTH WITH GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUING. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL RE-
ENFORCE COOLER THERMAL FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...AS THE
ASSOCIATED MAIN UPPER TROUGH DIVES SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SHARP
WESTERN CONUS RIDGING AHEAD OF THE ADVECTING EASTERN PAC UPPER
TROUGH WILL SUPPER WAA ACROSS THE AREA FRI INTO SAT...PEAKING SAT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE ROCKIES. FORECAST MODELS ARE
SUPPORTING A TWO PHASE IMPULSE EJECTION ...WITH THE LEAD COMPACT
IMPULSE ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT. GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED
NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SSW UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE BULK
OF LSA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE LEAD IMPULSE WILL PASS NW OF
THE FA...SHUNTING MOST OF THE PRECIP CHANCES NW OF THE FA WHILE
FORCING THE COLD FRONT SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST SUNDAY...MAINLY REMAINING ACROSS THE NW HALF
CLOSER TO WHERE THE BULK OF LSA AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC FORCING
WILL REMAIN. MOST OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE BLACK HILLS AND NE WY. QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN LACK OF SYSTEM ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH
MILD FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 282330
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
530 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE IS PRODUCING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SD PLAINS. TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S RIGHT NOW. LOW CLOUDS LINGERING OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND SHIFTING
EASTWARD.

SEASONABLE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE WESTERN RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY... BRINGING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WARMER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AS WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY TO THE WEST BY THE
EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. SKIES WILL CLEAR
OUT WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MILDER LOWS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
TENDENCIES FOR THE NE PAC UPPER TROUGH REMAIN WITH OPEN FLOW
DOWNSTREAM. FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
KEEP THE VERY COLD AIR WELL NORTH WITH GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUING. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL RE-
ENFORCE COOLER THERMAL FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...AS THE
ASSOCIATED MAIN UPPER TROUGH DIVES SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SHARP
WESTERN CONUS RIDGING AHEAD OF THE ADVECTING EASTERN PAC UPPER
TROUGH WILL SUPPER WAA ACROSS THE AREA FRI INTO SAT...PEAKING SAT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE ROCKIES. FORECAST MODELS ARE
SUPPORTING A TWO PHASE IMPULSE EJECTION ...WITH THE LEAD COMPACT
IMPULSE ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT. GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED
NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SSW UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE BULK
OF LSA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE LEAD IMPULSE WILL PASS NW OF
THE FA...SHUNTING MOST OF THE PRECIP CHANCES NW OF THE FA WHILE
FORCING THE COLD FRONT SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST SUNDAY...MAINLY REMAINING ACROSS THE NW HALF
CLOSER TO WHERE THE BULK OF LSA AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC FORCING
WILL REMAIN. MOST OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE BLACK HILLS AND NE WY. QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN LACK OF SYSTEM ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH
MILD FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 529 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 282117
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
317 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE IS PRODUCING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SD PLAINS. TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S RIGHT NOW. LOW CLOUDS LINGERING OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND SHIFTING
EASTWARD.

SEASONABLE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE WESTERN RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY... BRINGING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WARMER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AS WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY TO THE WEST BY THE
EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. SKIES WILL CLEAR
OUT WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MILDER LOWS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
TENDENCIES FOR THE NE PAC UPPER TROUGH REMAIN WITH OPEN FLOW
DOWNSTREAM. FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
KEEP THE VERY COLD AIR WELL NORTH WITH GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUING. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL RE-
ENFORCE COOLER THERMAL FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...AS THE
ASSOCIATED MAIN UPPER TROUGH DIVES SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SHARP
WESTERN CONUS RIDGING AHEAD OF THE ADVECTING EASTERN PAC UPPER
TROUGH WILL SUPPER WAA ACROSS THE AREA FRI INTO SAT...PEAKING SAT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE ROCKIES. FORECAST MODELS ARE
SUPPORTING A TWO PHASE IMPULSE EJECTION ...WITH THE LEAD COMPACT
IMPULSE ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT. GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED
NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SSW UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE BULK
OF LSA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE LEAD IMPULSE WILL PASS NW OF
THE FA...SHUNTING MOST OF THE PRECIP CHANCES NW OF THE FA WHILE
FORCING THE COLD FRONT SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST SUNDAY...MAINLY REMAINING ACROSS THE NW HALF
CLOSER TO WHERE THE BULK OF LSA AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC FORCING
WILL REMAIN. MOST OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE BLACK HILLS AND NE WY. QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN LACK OF SYSTEM ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH
MILD FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A BAND OF MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST GENERALLY NORTH OF A K2WX-KPHP
LINE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC








000
FXUS63 KUNR 281712
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1112 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

UPPER LOW CENTERENED NEAR THE ND/MN BORDER WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD TRACK TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS OVER NW SD WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AS DRIER AIR
BUILDS IN. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 40S ARE EXPECTED. BREEZY NW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER THE WRN SD PLAINS.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL
BREAK DOWN AS A STRONG FAST MOVING WAVE CROSSES MT INTO THE DAKOTAS.
THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCE
WITH THE TIMING BRINGS UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT LOCATIONS WILL GET
SHOWERS AND WHEN. BUT EITHER WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT. WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS REACHING THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.


&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING DRY WX AND MILD TEMPS. A LARGE UPPER TROF WILL THEN PUSH
INTO THE PLAINS IN THE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS TROF
IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT...WITH THE BULK OF NRN STREAM ENERGY PASSING
TO OUR NORTH SO WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY LOW POPS AT THIS TIME.
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A BAND OF MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST GENERALLY NORTH OF A K2WX-KPHP
LINE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC








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