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000
FXUS63 KUNR 042335
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
535 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...MOVING
SLOWLY EAST ONTO THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS. SKIES ARE MAINLY
SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S. SOME BUILDING CUMULUS
HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE BLACK HILLS...BUT NO RADAR RETURNS AS OF
NOW. WINDS ARE MOSTLY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST IN MOST AREAS.

OTHER THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE BLACK HILLS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA...BECOME BREEZY AT
TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATER IN
THE DAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL CONUS ON FRIDAY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
AS A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
ANOTHER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SRN CANADA. MODELS AGREE ON A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER NERN WY AND SWRN SD FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA. MUCAPE OF ONLY
500-1000J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS LESS THAN 25KT SUGGEST
ONLY PULSE SEVERE STORMS AT BEST. SLOW STORM MOTIONS MAY RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER NERN WY AND FAR SWRN SD.

THE SWRN CONUS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS AREA BY
SUNDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. MODELS DISAGREE CONSIDERABLY AFTER 12Z MONDAY AS THE
ECMWF PARTIALLY ABSORBS THIS UPPER LOW INTO ANOTHER UPPER LOW COMING
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHEREAS THE GFS EJECTS THE UPPER LOW EAST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW. THE RESULT IS A BROAD-BRUSH OF POPS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE PATTERN IS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY
BUT THEN THEY WILL FALL BACK TO AROUND AVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...BUNKERS
AVIATION...JC





000
FXUS63 KUNR 042335
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
535 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...MOVING
SLOWLY EAST ONTO THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS. SKIES ARE MAINLY
SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S. SOME BUILDING CUMULUS
HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE BLACK HILLS...BUT NO RADAR RETURNS AS OF
NOW. WINDS ARE MOSTLY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST IN MOST AREAS.

OTHER THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE BLACK HILLS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA...BECOME BREEZY AT
TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATER IN
THE DAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL CONUS ON FRIDAY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
AS A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
ANOTHER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SRN CANADA. MODELS AGREE ON A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER NERN WY AND SWRN SD FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA. MUCAPE OF ONLY
500-1000J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS LESS THAN 25KT SUGGEST
ONLY PULSE SEVERE STORMS AT BEST. SLOW STORM MOTIONS MAY RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER NERN WY AND FAR SWRN SD.

THE SWRN CONUS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS AREA BY
SUNDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. MODELS DISAGREE CONSIDERABLY AFTER 12Z MONDAY AS THE
ECMWF PARTIALLY ABSORBS THIS UPPER LOW INTO ANOTHER UPPER LOW COMING
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHEREAS THE GFS EJECTS THE UPPER LOW EAST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW. THE RESULT IS A BROAD-BRUSH OF POPS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE PATTERN IS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY
BUT THEN THEY WILL FALL BACK TO AROUND AVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...BUNKERS
AVIATION...JC





000
FXUS63 KUNR 042043
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
243 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...MOVING
SLOWLY EAST ONTO THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS. SKIES ARE MAINLY
SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S. SOME BUILDING CUMULUS
HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE BLACK HILLS...BUT NO RADAR RETURNS AS OF
NOW. WINDS ARE MOSTLY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST IN MOST AREAS.

OTHER THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE BLACK HILLS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA...BECOME BREEZY AT
TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATER IN
THE DAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL CONUS ON FRIDAY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
AS A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
ANOTHER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SRN CANADA. MODELS AGREE ON A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER NERN WY AND SWRN SD FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA. MUCAPE OF ONLY
500-1000J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS LESS THAN 25KT SUGGEST
ONLY PULSE SEVERE STORMS AT BEST. SLOW STORM MOTIONS MAY RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER NERN WY AND FAR SWRN SD.

THE SWRN CONUS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS AREA BY
SUNDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. MODELS DISAGREE CONSIDERABLY AFTER 12Z MONDAY AS THE
ECMWF PARTIALLY ABSORBS THIS UPPER LOW INTO ANOTHER UPPER LOW COMING
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHEREAS THE GFS EJECTS THE UPPER LOW EAST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW. THE RESULT IS A BROAD-BRUSH OF POPS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE PATTERN IS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY
BUT THEN THEY WILL FALL BACK TO AROUND AVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...BUNKERS
AVIATION...BUNKERS





000
FXUS63 KUNR 041713
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1113 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWA. WATER VAPOR SHOWED UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATING WEATHER OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH RETURN FLOW OVER THE CWA.
CONVERGENCE OVER THE BLACK HILLS MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED -TSRA
GIVEN 250-500J/KG SBCAPE AND VERY WEAK SBCIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HINT AT THIS SCENARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOUT 5F WARMER THAN TUESDAY GIVEN WARM AIR ADVECTION/THICKNESS
INCREASES.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH NICE WEATHER ON
TAP. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10F HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD 80S. CIN/SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION EVEN WITH MODEST INSTABILITY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LOW
MOVES ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY SUNDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AFTER THIS LOW EXITS...ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY...BEFORE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
OVERALL THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS AND COOLER...BUT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

AVERAGE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS
TO UPPER 20S TODAY AND MID TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND AVERAGE 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA REACHING
10 TO 20 MPH THURSDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...BUNKERS
FIRE WEATHER...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 041132
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
532 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWA. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATING WEATHER OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH RETURN FLOW OVER THE CWA.
CONVERGENCE OVER THE BLACK HILLS MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED -TSRA
GIVEN 250-500J/KG SBCAPE AND VERY WEAK SBCIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HINT AT THIS SCENARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOUT 5F WARMER THAN TUESDAY GIVEN WARM AIR ADVECTION/THICKNESS
INCREASES.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH NICE WEATHER ON
TAP. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10F HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD 80S. CIN/SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION EVEN WITH MODEST INSTABILITY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LOW
MOVES ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY SUNDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AFTER THIS LOW EXITS...ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY...BEFORE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
OVERALL THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS AND COOLER...BUT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

AVERAGE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS
TO UPPER 20S TODAY AND MID TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND AVERAGE 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA REACHING
10 TO 20 MPH THURSDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...MLS
FIRE WEATHER...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 040837
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
237 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWA. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATING WEATHER OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH RETURN FLOW OVER THE CWA.
CONVERGENCE OVER THE BLACK HILLS MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED -TSRA
GIVEN 250-500J/KG SBCAPE AND VERY WEAK SBCIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HINT AT THIS SCENARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOUT 5F WARMER THAN TUESDAY GIVEN WARM AIR ADVECTION/THICKNESS
INCREASES.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH NICE WEATHER ON
TAP. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10F HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD 80S. CIN/SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION EVEN WITH MODEST INSTABILITY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LOW
MOVES ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY SUNDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AFTER THIS LOW EXITS...ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY...BEFORE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
OVERALL THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS AND COOLER...BUT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

AVERAGE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS
TO UPPER 20S TODAY AND MID TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND AVERAGE 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA REACHING
10 TO 20 MPH THURSDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...MLS
FIRE WEATHER...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 040503
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1103 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

1930Z WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS REVEALS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WEST OF
THE CWA...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WAS MAINLY NORTHERLY...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IS REVEALING
A CU FIELD WHERE LEE-SIDE CONVERGENCE HAS TAKEN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LIGHT ECHOES
ON RADAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HILLS...BUT WITH
VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL BE
DIFFICULT FOR ANY RAIN TO REACH THE SURFACE.

WESTERN CONUS RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES TOWARD THE CWA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS BEING ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER ON
WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. SOME MODELS HINT AT VERY
MEAGER...SHALLOW INSTABILITY PROFILES OF 250J/KG-500J/KG OVER THE
BLACK HILLS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS DUE TO LEE-SIDE CONVERGENCE FROM SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER WARM AND MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A
BROAD UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS LATE
THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SETTING UP A REX BLOCK. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. THE LOW WILL
PHASE BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...PUSHING NEWD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO MOVE IN ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JC





000
FXUS63 KUNR 032320
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
520 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

1930Z WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS REVEALS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WEST OF
THE CWA...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WAS MAINLY NORTHERLY...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IS REVEALING
A CU FIELD WHERE LEE-SIDE CONVERGENCE HAS TAKEN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LIGHT ECHOES
ON RADAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HILLS...BUT WITH
VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL BE
DIFFICULT FOR ANY RAIN TO REACH THE SURFACE.

WESTERN CONUS RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES TOWARD THE CWA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS BEING ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER ON
WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. SOME MODELS HINT AT VERY
MEAGER...SHALLOW INSTABILITY PROFILES OF 250J/KG-500J/KG OVER THE
BLACK HILLS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS DUE TO LEE-SIDE CONVERGENCE FROM SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER WARM AND MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A
BROAD UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS LATE
THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SETTING UP A REX BLOCK. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. THE LOW WILL
PHASE BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...PUSHING NEWD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO MOVE IN ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 519 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JC





000
FXUS63 KUNR 032320
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
520 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

1930Z WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS REVEALS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WEST OF
THE CWA...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WAS MAINLY NORTHERLY...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IS REVEALING
A CU FIELD WHERE LEE-SIDE CONVERGENCE HAS TAKEN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LIGHT ECHOES
ON RADAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HILLS...BUT WITH
VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL BE
DIFFICULT FOR ANY RAIN TO REACH THE SURFACE.

WESTERN CONUS RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES TOWARD THE CWA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS BEING ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER ON
WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. SOME MODELS HINT AT VERY
MEAGER...SHALLOW INSTABILITY PROFILES OF 250J/KG-500J/KG OVER THE
BLACK HILLS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS DUE TO LEE-SIDE CONVERGENCE FROM SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER WARM AND MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A
BROAD UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS LATE
THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SETTING UP A REX BLOCK. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. THE LOW WILL
PHASE BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...PUSHING NEWD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO MOVE IN ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 519 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JC





000
FXUS63 KUNR 031955
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
155 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

1930Z WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS REVEALS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WEST OF
THE CWA...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WAS MAINLY NORTHERLY...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IS REVEALING
A CU FIELD WHERE LEE-SIDE CONVERGENCE HAS TAKEN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LIGHT ECHOES
ON RADAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HILLS...BUT WITH
VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL BE
DIFFICULT FOR ANY RAIN TO REACH THE SURFACE.

WESTERN CONUS RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES TOWARD THE CWA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS BEING ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER ON
WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. SOME MODELS HINT AT VERY
MEAGER...SHALLOW INSTABILITY PROFILES OF 250J/KG-500J/KG OVER THE
BLACK HILLS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS DUE TO LEE-SIDE CONVERGENCE FROM SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER WARM AND MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A
BROAD UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS LATE
THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SETTING UP A REX BLOCK. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. THE LOW WILL
PHASE BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...PUSHING NEWD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO MOVE IN ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13





000
FXUS63 KUNR 031733
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1133 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE CWA.
WATER VAPOUR HAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO SOUTHWEST
CANADA...AND YESTERDAY/S SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
CWA. LOOKS LIKE 00Z NAM OVERDOING TD/S...AND THUS...AFTERNOON 250-
500J/KG SBCAPE OVER THE BLACK HILLS PROBABLY OVERDONE WITH BETTER
SBCIN THAN FORECAST. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HINT IF ANYTHING
WOULD OCCUR...IT WOULD BE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS UNDER
DOWNSTREAM CONVERGENCE NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10F
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER WARM AND MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
ENERGY FROM LARGE DESERT SW LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW GRADUALLY MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD...WITH PROGRESSION TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLOWED BY THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN.
HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING COOL HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA...BRINGING SUBSIDENCE/DRYING
TO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...13





000
FXUS63 KUNR 031733
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1133 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE CWA.
WATER VAPOUR HAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO SOUTHWEST
CANADA...AND YESTERDAY/S SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
CWA. LOOKS LIKE 00Z NAM OVERDOING TD/S...AND THUS...AFTERNOON 250-
500J/KG SBCAPE OVER THE BLACK HILLS PROBABLY OVERDONE WITH BETTER
SBCIN THAN FORECAST. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HINT IF ANYTHING
WOULD OCCUR...IT WOULD BE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS UNDER
DOWNSTREAM CONVERGENCE NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10F
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER WARM AND MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
ENERGY FROM LARGE DESERT SW LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW GRADUALLY MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD...WITH PROGRESSION TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLOWED BY THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN.
HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING COOL HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA...BRINGING SUBSIDENCE/DRYING
TO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...13





000
FXUS63 KUNR 031059
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
459 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE CWA.
WATER VAPOUR HAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO SOUTHWEST
CANADA...AND YESTERDAY/S SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
CWA. LOOKS LIKE 00Z NAM OVERDOING TD/S...AND THUS...AFTERNOON 250-
500J/KG SBCAPE OVER THE BLACK HILLS PROBABLY OVERDONE WITH BETTER
SBCIN THAN FORECAST. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HINT IF ANYTHING
WOULD OCCUR...IT WOULD BE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS UNDER
DOWNSTREAM CONVERGENCE NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10F
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER WARM AND MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
ENERGY FROM LARGE DESERT SW LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW GRADUALLY MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD...WITH PROGRESSION TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLOWED BY THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN.
HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING COOL HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA...BRINGING SUBSIDENCE/DRYING
TO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

OTHER THAN SOME MVFR CONDS IN PATCHY MORNING FOG OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE





000
FXUS63 KUNR 031059
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
459 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE CWA.
WATER VAPOUR HAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO SOUTHWEST
CANADA...AND YESTERDAY/S SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
CWA. LOOKS LIKE 00Z NAM OVERDOING TD/S...AND THUS...AFTERNOON 250-
500J/KG SBCAPE OVER THE BLACK HILLS PROBABLY OVERDONE WITH BETTER
SBCIN THAN FORECAST. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HINT IF ANYTHING
WOULD OCCUR...IT WOULD BE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS UNDER
DOWNSTREAM CONVERGENCE NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10F
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER WARM AND MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
ENERGY FROM LARGE DESERT SW LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW GRADUALLY MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD...WITH PROGRESSION TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLOWED BY THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN.
HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING COOL HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA...BRINGING SUBSIDENCE/DRYING
TO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

OTHER THAN SOME MVFR CONDS IN PATCHY MORNING FOG OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE





000
FXUS63 KUNR 030828
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
228 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE CWA.
WATER VAPOUR HAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO SOUTHWEST
CANADA...AND YESTERDAY/S SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
CWA. LOOKS LIKE 00Z NAM OVERDOING TD/S...AND THUS...AFTERNOON 250-
500J/KG SBCAPE OVER THE BLACK HILLS PROBABLY OVERDONE WITH BETTER
SBCIN THAN FORECAST. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HINT IF ANYTHING
WOULD OCCUR...IT WOULD BE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS UNDER
DOWNSTREAM CONVERGENCE NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10F
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER WARM AND MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
ENERGY FROM LARGE DESERT SW LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW GRADUALLY MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD...WITH PROGRESSION TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLOWED BY THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN.
HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING COOL HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA...BRINGING SUBSIDENCE/DRYING
TO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

OTHER THAN SOME MVFR CONDS IN PATCHY MORNING FOG OVER PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN SD PLAINS...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE





000
FXUS63 KUNR 030516
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1116 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS LARGE RIDGE
OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
FLOW OVER OUR CWA. PVA AND STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE HAVE LED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY EVENING AND SHOULD SEE CLEARING
SKIES BEHIND IT.

WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT OVER OUR CWA AND
KEEP THINGS DRY AND WARM FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE A
LITTLE BIT WARMER ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO MONDAY...SO SHOULD SEE
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS ENERGY FROM LARGE
DESERT SW LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. AS THIS LOW SLOWLY MIGRATES
NORTHEASTWARD...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JC





000
FXUS63 KUNR 022334
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
534 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS LARGE RIDGE
OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
FLOW OVER OUR CWA. PVA AND STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE HAVE LED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY EVENING AND SHOULD SEE CLEARING
SKIES BEHIND IT.

WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT OVER OUR CWA AND
KEEP THINGS DRY AND WARM FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE A
LITTLE BIT WARMER ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO MONDAY...SO SHOULD SEE
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS ENERGY FROM LARGE
DESERT SW LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. AS THIS LOW SLOWLY MIGRATES
NORTHEASTWARD...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDS EXPECTED. A SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN SD THIS
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR SHRA. CLEARING EXPECTED
N-S THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JC





000
FXUS63 KUNR 022028
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
228 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS LARGE RIDGE
OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
FLOW OVER OUR CWA. PVA AND STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE HAVE LED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY EVENING AND SHOULD SEE CLEARING
SKIES BEHIND IT.

WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT OVER OUR CWA AND
KEEP THINGS DRY AND WARM FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE A
LITTLE BIT WARMER ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO MONDAY...SO SHOULD SEE
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS ENERGY FROM LARGE
DESERT SW LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. AS THIS LOW SLOWLY MIGRATES
NORTHEASTWARD...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL MVFR
CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDS EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15





000
FXUS63 KUNR 021721
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1121 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS COMPACT SHORTWAVE NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG DROPPING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS. CLOUDS INCREASING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A FEW SHOWERS SHOWING UP ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS SHORTWAVE CROSSES SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULT IN MUCAPE OF
250-500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. RADAR SIMULATIONS FROM SHORT RANGE CAMS SHOW
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL BECOME BREEZY ON THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AND WARMER FOR TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER WARM AND MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY AS ENERGY FROM
LARGE DESERT SW LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. AS THIS LOW SLOWLY
MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL
MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDS EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...15





000
FXUS63 KUNR 021721
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1121 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS COMPACT SHORTWAVE NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG DROPPING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS. CLOUDS INCREASING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A FEW SHOWERS SHOWING UP ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS SHORTWAVE CROSSES SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULT IN MUCAPE OF
250-500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. RADAR SIMULATIONS FROM SHORT RANGE CAMS SHOW
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL BECOME BREEZY ON THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AND WARMER FOR TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER WARM AND MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY AS ENERGY FROM
LARGE DESERT SW LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. AS THIS LOW SLOWLY
MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL
MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDS EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...15





000
FXUS63 KUNR 020826
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
226 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS COMPACT SHORTWAVE NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG DROPPING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS. CLOUDS INCREASING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A FEW SHOWERS SHOWING UP ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS SHORTWAVE CROSSES SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULT IN MUCAPE OF
250-500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. RADAR SIMULATIONS FROM SHORT RANGE CAMS SHOW
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL BECOME BREEZY ON THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AND WARMER FOR TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER WARM AND MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY AS ENERGY FROM
LARGE DESERT SW LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. AS THIS LOW SLOWLY
MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN SD LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LOCAL MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDS
EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE





000
FXUS63 KUNR 020436
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1036 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPPER RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO THE CNDN ROCKIES...WITH
AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SW SETTING UP A REX BLOCKING PATTERN.
1028MB SURFACE HIGH SITS ACROSS THE NRN TO CNTRL PLAINS...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE 50S TO
LOW 60S. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 30S. COMPACT UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
DROP SOUTH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE MONDAY...THROUGH THE SRN
CNDN PLAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CWA BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTN/EVNG. PRECIP SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT. WITH THIS WAVE...LOOKS LIKE N/NW WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
DURING THE DAY. DID ALSO DROP HIGHS SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHER CLOUD
COVER...HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS AND DOMINATE OUR WX FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE RESULT WILL
BE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
A LARGE DESERT SW LOW FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE LOW
SLOWLY MIGRATING NEWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST PLACES. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SCT-
ISOLD SHRA/TS OVER THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL
MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC





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