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000
FXUS63 KUNR 231721
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1121 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES TROF ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. UPPER
LOW SPINNING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH BAND OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED NEAR CENTER OF UPPER LOW...OVER
WEST SIDE OF BLACK HILLS.

UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH 200-400J/KG MLCAPE FROM BLACK HILLS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.

UPPER RIDGE SHOOTS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TEMPS
WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...COOLING A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHES
THE REGION. MODELS ARE SLOWING THIS NEXT SYSTEM DOWN A
LITTLE...WITH PRECIP NOT MOVING IN UNTIL SUNDAY NOW. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT NOW BOTH THE
GFS AND ECM ARE HINTING AT A DRY SLOT OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.
GFS HAS PWATS 250% OF NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO COULD BE A SOGGY START
TO THE WEEK...WITH NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MAINLY THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 231721
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1121 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES TROF ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. UPPER
LOW SPINNING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH BAND OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED NEAR CENTER OF UPPER LOW...OVER
WEST SIDE OF BLACK HILLS.

UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH 200-400J/KG MLCAPE FROM BLACK HILLS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.

UPPER RIDGE SHOOTS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TEMPS
WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...COOLING A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHES
THE REGION. MODELS ARE SLOWING THIS NEXT SYSTEM DOWN A
LITTLE...WITH PRECIP NOT MOVING IN UNTIL SUNDAY NOW. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT NOW BOTH THE
GFS AND ECM ARE HINTING AT A DRY SLOT OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.
GFS HAS PWATS 250% OF NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO COULD BE A SOGGY START
TO THE WEEK...WITH NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MAINLY THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS63 KUNR 230906
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
306 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES TROF ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. UPPER
LOW SPINNING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH BAND OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED NEAR CENTER OF UPPER LOW...OVER
WEST SIDE OF BLACK HILLS.

UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH 200-400J/KG MLCAPE FROM BLACK HILLS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.

UPPER RIDGE SHOOTS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TEMPS
WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...COOLING A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHES
THE REGION. MODELS ARE SLOWING THIS NEXT SYSTEM DOWN A
LITTLE...WITH PRECIP NOT MOVING IN UNTIL SUNDAY NOW. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT NOW BOTH THE
GFS AND ECM ARE HINTING AT A DRY SLOT OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.
GFS HAS PWATS 250% OF NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO COULD BE A SOGGY START
TO THE WEEK...WITH NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

BANDS OF -SHRA/-TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE







000
FXUS63 KUNR 230906
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
306 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES TROF ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. UPPER
LOW SPINNING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH BAND OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED NEAR CENTER OF UPPER LOW...OVER
WEST SIDE OF BLACK HILLS.

UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH 200-400J/KG MLCAPE FROM BLACK HILLS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.

UPPER RIDGE SHOOTS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TEMPS
WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...COOLING A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHES
THE REGION. MODELS ARE SLOWING THIS NEXT SYSTEM DOWN A
LITTLE...WITH PRECIP NOT MOVING IN UNTIL SUNDAY NOW. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT NOW BOTH THE
GFS AND ECM ARE HINTING AT A DRY SLOT OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.
GFS HAS PWATS 250% OF NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO COULD BE A SOGGY START
TO THE WEEK...WITH NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

BANDS OF -SHRA/-TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE








000
FXUS63 KUNR 230516
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1116 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 735 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SWING BANDS OF ISOLD-SCT -SHRA...
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MT WITH TROUGH FROM
CENTRAL MT THROUGH LOW INTO NORTHEAST CO. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED
UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN WY WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEAST WY...HEADING EAST-NORTHEAST. ABOUT 100-500J/KG MUCAPE
HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...AND AS IT
INTERACTS WITH SURFACE FEATURES...A FEW SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
OVER/ADVECT INTO CWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL NE/SD TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION SHIFTING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE BEST 850-700MB
THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT NEAR GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY...UPPER LOW SPINS INTO NORTHEAST SD AND OPENS UP INTO A
TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/SOUTHERN MB. EARLY
MORNING PRECIPITATION SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL WANE...BUT ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SD
AS 500-750J/KG MUCAPE DEVELOPS DURING PEAK HEATING. AFTERNOON
PRECIPITATION FOCUS SHOULD BE ON LEFTOVER SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT
LINE DRAPED ACROSS SD PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM EXITS CWA WITH CLEARING SKIES AND PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS AND SURFACE
TROF PUSHES EAST OF FORECAST AREA. LOW HUMIDITY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. DEEP
TROF WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A
CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AND BECOME WIDESPREAD LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH MOST PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE
SURFACE TROF. GFS IS SHOWING A DRY SLOT OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
SD WITH A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL-EASTERN SD...BUT
MODEL BLEND HAS BROADBRUSHED POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY STABLE...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SURFACE TROF AND COOL AIR WITH THE UPPER LOW CREATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

BANDS OF ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA/-TSTMS WILL OCCUR OVER NERN WY AND PARTS
OF WRN AND CENT SD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WNDS WL SWITCH TO THE
NW OVR NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD TUES MRNG AS SFC TROF MOVS INTO WRN
SD.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...10








000
FXUS63 KUNR 230516
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1116 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 735 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SWING BANDS OF ISOLD-SCT -SHRA...
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MT WITH TROUGH FROM
CENTRAL MT THROUGH LOW INTO NORTHEAST CO. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED
UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN WY WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEAST WY...HEADING EAST-NORTHEAST. ABOUT 100-500J/KG MUCAPE
HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...AND AS IT
INTERACTS WITH SURFACE FEATURES...A FEW SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
OVER/ADVECT INTO CWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL NE/SD TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION SHIFTING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE BEST 850-700MB
THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT NEAR GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY...UPPER LOW SPINS INTO NORTHEAST SD AND OPENS UP INTO A
TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/SOUTHERN MB. EARLY
MORNING PRECIPITATION SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL WANE...BUT ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SD
AS 500-750J/KG MUCAPE DEVELOPS DURING PEAK HEATING. AFTERNOON
PRECIPITATION FOCUS SHOULD BE ON LEFTOVER SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT
LINE DRAPED ACROSS SD PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM EXITS CWA WITH CLEARING SKIES AND PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS AND SURFACE
TROF PUSHES EAST OF FORECAST AREA. LOW HUMIDITY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. DEEP
TROF WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A
CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AND BECOME WIDESPREAD LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH MOST PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE
SURFACE TROF. GFS IS SHOWING A DRY SLOT OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
SD WITH A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL-EASTERN SD...BUT
MODEL BLEND HAS BROADBRUSHED POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY STABLE...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SURFACE TROF AND COOL AIR WITH THE UPPER LOW CREATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

BANDS OF ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA/-TSTMS WILL OCCUR OVER NERN WY AND PARTS
OF WRN AND CENT SD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WNDS WL SWITCH TO THE
NW OVR NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD TUES MRNG AS SFC TROF MOVS INTO WRN
SD.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 230140
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
740 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 735 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SWING BANDS OF ISOLD-SCT -SHRA...
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MT WITH TROUGH FROM
CENTRAL MT THROUGH LOW INTO NORTHEAST CO. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED
UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN WY WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEAST WY...HEADING EAST-NORTHEAST. ABOUT 100-500J/KG MUCAPE
HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...AND AS IT
INTERACTS WITH SURFACE FEATURES...A FEW SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
OVER/ADVECT INTO CWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL NE/SD TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION SHIFTING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE BEST 850-700MB
THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT NEAR GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY...UPPER LOW SPINS INTO NORTHEAST SD AND OPENS UP INTO A
TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/SOUTHERN MB. EARLY
MORNING PRECIPITATION SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL WANE...BUT ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SD
AS 500-750J/KG MUCAPE DEVELOPS DURING PEAK HEATING. AFTERNOON
PRECIPITATION FOCUS SHOULD BE ON LEFTOVER SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT
LINE DRAPED ACROSS SD PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM EXITS CWA WITH CLEARING SKIES AND PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS AND SURFACE
TROF PUSHES EAST OF FORECAST AREA. LOW HUMIDITY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. DEEP
TROF WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A
CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AND BECOME WIDESPREAD LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH MOST PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE
SURFACE TROF. GFS IS SHOWING A DRY SLOT OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
SD WITH A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL-EASTERN SD...BUT
MODEL BLEND HAS BROADBRUSHED POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY STABLE...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SURFACE TROF AND COOL AIR WITH THE UPPER LOW CREATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 444 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

BANDS OF ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS WILL CROSS NERN WY AND PARTS OF
WRN AND SC SD THIS EVE. LCL MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WNDS
POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY TSTRMS. GUSTY S WNDS ON THE SD PLAINS W WL
DCRS THIS EVEN...AND WNDS WL SWITCH TO THE NW OVR NERN WY AND FAR
WRN SD TUES MRNG AS SFC TROF MOVS INTO WRN SD.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...10








000
FXUS63 KUNR 230140
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
740 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 735 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SWING BANDS OF ISOLD-SCT -SHRA...
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MT WITH TROUGH FROM
CENTRAL MT THROUGH LOW INTO NORTHEAST CO. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED
UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN WY WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEAST WY...HEADING EAST-NORTHEAST. ABOUT 100-500J/KG MUCAPE
HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...AND AS IT
INTERACTS WITH SURFACE FEATURES...A FEW SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
OVER/ADVECT INTO CWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL NE/SD TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION SHIFTING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE BEST 850-700MB
THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT NEAR GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY...UPPER LOW SPINS INTO NORTHEAST SD AND OPENS UP INTO A
TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/SOUTHERN MB. EARLY
MORNING PRECIPITATION SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL WANE...BUT ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SD
AS 500-750J/KG MUCAPE DEVELOPS DURING PEAK HEATING. AFTERNOON
PRECIPITATION FOCUS SHOULD BE ON LEFTOVER SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT
LINE DRAPED ACROSS SD PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM EXITS CWA WITH CLEARING SKIES AND PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS AND SURFACE
TROF PUSHES EAST OF FORECAST AREA. LOW HUMIDITY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. DEEP
TROF WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A
CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AND BECOME WIDESPREAD LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH MOST PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE
SURFACE TROF. GFS IS SHOWING A DRY SLOT OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
SD WITH A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL-EASTERN SD...BUT
MODEL BLEND HAS BROADBRUSHED POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY STABLE...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SURFACE TROF AND COOL AIR WITH THE UPPER LOW CREATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 444 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

BANDS OF ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS WILL CROSS NERN WY AND PARTS OF
WRN AND SC SD THIS EVE. LCL MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WNDS
POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY TSTRMS. GUSTY S WNDS ON THE SD PLAINS W WL
DCRS THIS EVEN...AND WNDS WL SWITCH TO THE NW OVR NERN WY AND FAR
WRN SD TUES MRNG AS SFC TROF MOVS INTO WRN SD.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 222246
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
446 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MT WITH TROUGH FROM
CENTRAL MT THROUGH LOW INTO NORTHEAST CO. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED
UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN WY WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEAST WY...HEADING EAST-NORTHEAST. ABOUT 100-500J/KG MUCAPE
HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...AND AS IT
INTERACTS WITH SURFACE FEATURES...A FEW SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
OVER/ADVECT INTO CWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL NE/SD TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION SHIFTING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE BEST 850-700MB
THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT NEAR GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY...UPPER LOW SPINS INTO NORTHEAST SD AND OPENS UP INTO A
TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/SOUTHERN MB. EARLY
MORNING PRECIPITATION SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL WANE...BUT ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SD
AS 500-750J/KG MUCAPE DEVELOPS DURING PEAK HEATING. AFTERNOON
PRECIPITATION FOCUS SHOULD BE ON LEFTOVER SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT
LINE DRAPED ACROSS SD PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM EXITS CWA WITH CLEARING SKIES AND PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS AND SURFACE
TROF PUSHES EAST OF FORECAST AREA. LOW HUMIDITY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. DEEP
TROF WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A
CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AND BECOME WIDESPREAD LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH MOST PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE
SURFACE TROF. GFS IS SHOWING A DRY SLOT OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
SD WITH A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL-EASTERN SD...BUT
MODEL BLEND HAS BROADBRUSHED POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY STABLE...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SURFACE TROF AND COOL AIR WITH THE UPPER LOW CREATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 444 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

BANDS OF ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS WILL CROSS NERN WY AND PARTS OF
WRN AND SC SD THIS EVE. LCL MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WNDS
POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY TSTRMS. GUSTY S WNDS ON THE SD PLAINS W WL
DCRS THIS EVEN...AND WNDS WL SWITCH TO THE NW OVR NERN WY AND FAR
WRN SD TUES MRNG AS SFC TROF MOVS INTO WRN SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...10








000
FXUS63 KUNR 222246
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
446 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MT WITH TROUGH FROM
CENTRAL MT THROUGH LOW INTO NORTHEAST CO. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED
UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN WY WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEAST WY...HEADING EAST-NORTHEAST. ABOUT 100-500J/KG MUCAPE
HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...AND AS IT
INTERACTS WITH SURFACE FEATURES...A FEW SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
OVER/ADVECT INTO CWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL NE/SD TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION SHIFTING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE BEST 850-700MB
THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT NEAR GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY...UPPER LOW SPINS INTO NORTHEAST SD AND OPENS UP INTO A
TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/SOUTHERN MB. EARLY
MORNING PRECIPITATION SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL WANE...BUT ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SD
AS 500-750J/KG MUCAPE DEVELOPS DURING PEAK HEATING. AFTERNOON
PRECIPITATION FOCUS SHOULD BE ON LEFTOVER SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT
LINE DRAPED ACROSS SD PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM EXITS CWA WITH CLEARING SKIES AND PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS AND SURFACE
TROF PUSHES EAST OF FORECAST AREA. LOW HUMIDITY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. DEEP
TROF WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A
CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AND BECOME WIDESPREAD LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH MOST PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE
SURFACE TROF. GFS IS SHOWING A DRY SLOT OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
SD WITH A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL-EASTERN SD...BUT
MODEL BLEND HAS BROADBRUSHED POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY STABLE...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SURFACE TROF AND COOL AIR WITH THE UPPER LOW CREATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 444 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

BANDS OF ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS WILL CROSS NERN WY AND PARTS OF
WRN AND SC SD THIS EVE. LCL MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WNDS
POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY TSTRMS. GUSTY S WNDS ON THE SD PLAINS W WL
DCRS THIS EVEN...AND WNDS WL SWITCH TO THE NW OVR NERN WY AND FAR
WRN SD TUES MRNG AS SFC TROF MOVS INTO WRN SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...10









000
FXUS63 KUNR 222059
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
259 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MT WITH TROUGH FROM
CENTRAL MT THROUGH LOW INTO NORTHEAST CO. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED
UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN WY WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEAST WY...HEADING EAST-NORTHEAST. ABOUT 100-500J/KG MUCAPE
HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...AND AS IT
INTERACTS WITH SURFACE FEATURES...A FEW SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
OVER/ADVECT INTO CWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL NE/SD TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION SHIFTING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE BEST 850-700MB
THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT NEAR GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY...UPPER LOW SPINS INTO NORTHEAST SD AND OPENS UP INTO A
TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/SOUTHERN MB. EARLY
MORNING PRECIPITATION SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL WANE...BUT ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SD
AS 500-750J/KG MUCAPE DEVELOPS DURING PEAK HEATING. AFTERNOON
PRECIPITATION FOCUS SHOULD BE ON LEFTOVER SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT
LINE DRAPED ACROSS SD PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM EXITS CWA WITH CLEARING SKIES AND PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS AND SURFACE
TROF PUSHES EAST OF FORECAST AREA. LOW HUMIDITY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. DEEP
TROF WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A
CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AND BECOME WIDESPREAD LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH MOST PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE
SURFACE TROF. GFS IS SHOWING A DRY SLOT OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
SD WITH A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL-EASTERN SD...BUT
MODEL BLEND HAS BROADBRUSHED POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY STABLE...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SURFACE TROF AND COOL AIR WITH THE UPPER LOW CREATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

MID LVL CLDS ADVANCING TWD AREA AHD OF STRM SYSTEM OVR WRN WY. ISOLD
TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS WL DVLP ACRS PORTIONS OF NERN WY AND SWERN SD
THIS AFTN...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WNDS POSSIBLE IN THE
VCNTY STRMS. GUSTY S WNDS ON THE SD PLAINS THIS AFTN WL DCRS THIS
EVEN...AND WNDS WL SWITCH TO THE NW OVR NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD TUES
MRNG AS SFC TROF MOVS INTO WRN SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...55






000
FXUS63 KUNR 221733
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1133 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD TROUGH FROM AB INTO NORTH CENTRAL WY.
WATER VAPOUR HAD UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER CENTRAL ID WITH LEAD
SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHWEST CO. THIS WAVE WILL SPIN NORTHEAST TODAY
AS UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST. INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED...BUT PRECIPITATION NOT LIKELY TO START UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS PER 12Z KUNR SOUNDING
AND MLCIN. SHRA/TSRA WILL ADVECT/DEVELOP INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN SHIFT EAST TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE EVEN LESS CONDUCIVE TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING PEAK HEATING AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE BLACK HILLS TONIGHT WHERE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. GIVEN
INCREASING GRADIENT AHEAD OF SURFACE FEATURES...HAVE BUMPED WINDS
UP ON THE SD PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE TO ADDRESS PRECIPITATION TIMING AND WINDS COMING SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE
REGION IN THE PERIOD...SUPPORTING SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA...ALBEIT A SMALL CHANCE MOST AREAS. DEPARTING SFC
RIDGE HAS LEFT A SIG DRY WEDGE ACROSS THE REGION...HIGHLY LIMITING
PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL POS THETA-E ADV PROCESSES CAN SIG INCREASE BL
MOISTURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON PER STAUNCH LL SOUTHERLY FLOW.
QUICKER EXIT AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES TO MAINLY SCENTRAL SD
WHERE THE BEST OVERLAP OF THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE. MAIN CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO
ADJUST POPS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA...ESP IN THE TUES PERIOD WHEN
LARGE SCALE SINK WILL SPREAD NW-SE OVER THE REGION.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUD CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE
PROPAGATING CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST...SUPPORTING A
BAND OF ELEVATED POS THETA-E ADV. DRY LL PROFILES AND HIGH CENTERED
LIFT WILL LIMIT PRECIP TO SPRINKLES THROUGH MORNING WESTERN
AREAS...AND SO HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS THERE. DIURNAL HEATING WILL
LEAD TO A SMALL UPTICK IN POPS ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON /ESP
THE BH/ ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING...EVIDENT WELL IN BUFR
PROFILES. HENCE HAVE FAVORED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST PLACES...SAVE
THE BH /GIVEN TERRAIN INFLUENCES/ AND SCENTRAL SD WHERE POS THETA-E
ADV AND THE STRONGEST LSA WILL OVERLAP THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THIS EVENING SCENTRAL AREAS...WHERE 40S AND
50S WERE RETAINED. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE IS FAVORED OVER NW AREAS
IN NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT...FAVORING REMOVAL OF PRECIP CHANCES
THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN LACK OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY...PRECIP
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TS
POSSIBLE. SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH 70S
AND FEW 80S. ONGOING LL PRESSURE FALLS WILL SUPPORT A BREEZY DAY ON
THE SD PLAINS...WITH 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS EXPECTED THERE.

TUES...UPPER LOW/IMPULSE WILL SHIFT EAST WITH BACKSIDE SUBSIDENCE
SPREADING OVER THE REGION WEST-EAST. LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO FORCE A FEW SHRA FROM THE BH SE INTO SCENTRAL
SD...ALTHOUGH SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION IS NOT THE GREATEST GIVEN LACK
OF APPRECIABLE LL MOISTURE AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HAVE CUT POPS
ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LOW 80S MOST
PLACES...SAVE THE BH AND FAR SCENTRAL SD. UPPER IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL DEPART THE REGION TUE NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING...SAVE PERHAPS A LINGERING SHOWER OVER TRIPP
COUNTY IN THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS...AND HIGHS
WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THE ECM
AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND
RETROGRADING BACK OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER...SO WILL LEAVE OUT POPS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
WRN CONUS IS PROGGED TO REACH THE HIGH PLAINS BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA. GFS IS
STILL QUICKER THAN THE ECM WITH THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIP IN
BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

MID LVL CLDS ADVANCING TWD AREA AHD OF STRM SYSTEM OVR WRN WY. ISOLD
TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS WL DVLP ACRS PORTIONS OF NERN WY AND SWERN SD
THIS AFTN...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WNDS POSSIBLE IN THE
VCNTY STRMS. SOUTH WNDS 15-25KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON THE SD PLAINS
THIS AFTN WL DCRS THIS EVEN. WNDS WL SWITCH TO THE NW OVR NERN WY
AND FAR WRN SD TUES MRNG AS SFC TROF MOVS INTO WRN SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...55








000
FXUS63 KUNR 221733
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1133 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD TROUGH FROM AB INTO NORTH CENTRAL WY.
WATER VAPOUR HAD UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER CENTRAL ID WITH LEAD
SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHWEST CO. THIS WAVE WILL SPIN NORTHEAST TODAY
AS UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST. INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED...BUT PRECIPITATION NOT LIKELY TO START UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS PER 12Z KUNR SOUNDING
AND MLCIN. SHRA/TSRA WILL ADVECT/DEVELOP INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN SHIFT EAST TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE EVEN LESS CONDUCIVE TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING PEAK HEATING AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE BLACK HILLS TONIGHT WHERE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. GIVEN
INCREASING GRADIENT AHEAD OF SURFACE FEATURES...HAVE BUMPED WINDS
UP ON THE SD PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE TO ADDRESS PRECIPITATION TIMING AND WINDS COMING SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE
REGION IN THE PERIOD...SUPPORTING SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA...ALBEIT A SMALL CHANCE MOST AREAS. DEPARTING SFC
RIDGE HAS LEFT A SIG DRY WEDGE ACROSS THE REGION...HIGHLY LIMITING
PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL POS THETA-E ADV PROCESSES CAN SIG INCREASE BL
MOISTURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON PER STAUNCH LL SOUTHERLY FLOW.
QUICKER EXIT AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES TO MAINLY SCENTRAL SD
WHERE THE BEST OVERLAP OF THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE. MAIN CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO
ADJUST POPS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA...ESP IN THE TUES PERIOD WHEN
LARGE SCALE SINK WILL SPREAD NW-SE OVER THE REGION.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUD CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE
PROPAGATING CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST...SUPPORTING A
BAND OF ELEVATED POS THETA-E ADV. DRY LL PROFILES AND HIGH CENTERED
LIFT WILL LIMIT PRECIP TO SPRINKLES THROUGH MORNING WESTERN
AREAS...AND SO HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS THERE. DIURNAL HEATING WILL
LEAD TO A SMALL UPTICK IN POPS ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON /ESP
THE BH/ ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING...EVIDENT WELL IN BUFR
PROFILES. HENCE HAVE FAVORED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST PLACES...SAVE
THE BH /GIVEN TERRAIN INFLUENCES/ AND SCENTRAL SD WHERE POS THETA-E
ADV AND THE STRONGEST LSA WILL OVERLAP THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THIS EVENING SCENTRAL AREAS...WHERE 40S AND
50S WERE RETAINED. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE IS FAVORED OVER NW AREAS
IN NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT...FAVORING REMOVAL OF PRECIP CHANCES
THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN LACK OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY...PRECIP
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TS
POSSIBLE. SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH 70S
AND FEW 80S. ONGOING LL PRESSURE FALLS WILL SUPPORT A BREEZY DAY ON
THE SD PLAINS...WITH 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS EXPECTED THERE.

TUES...UPPER LOW/IMPULSE WILL SHIFT EAST WITH BACKSIDE SUBSIDENCE
SPREADING OVER THE REGION WEST-EAST. LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO FORCE A FEW SHRA FROM THE BH SE INTO SCENTRAL
SD...ALTHOUGH SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION IS NOT THE GREATEST GIVEN LACK
OF APPRECIABLE LL MOISTURE AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HAVE CUT POPS
ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LOW 80S MOST
PLACES...SAVE THE BH AND FAR SCENTRAL SD. UPPER IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL DEPART THE REGION TUE NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING...SAVE PERHAPS A LINGERING SHOWER OVER TRIPP
COUNTY IN THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS...AND HIGHS
WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THE ECM
AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND
RETROGRADING BACK OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER...SO WILL LEAVE OUT POPS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
WRN CONUS IS PROGGED TO REACH THE HIGH PLAINS BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA. GFS IS
STILL QUICKER THAN THE ECM WITH THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIP IN
BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

MID LVL CLDS ADVANCING TWD AREA AHD OF STRM SYSTEM OVR WRN WY. ISOLD
TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS WL DVLP ACRS PORTIONS OF NERN WY AND SWERN SD
THIS AFTN...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WNDS POSSIBLE IN THE
VCNTY STRMS. SOUTH WNDS 15-25KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON THE SD PLAINS
THIS AFTN WL DCRS THIS EVEN. WNDS WL SWITCH TO THE NW OVR NERN WY
AND FAR WRN SD TUES MRNG AS SFC TROF MOVS INTO WRN SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...55







000
FXUS63 KUNR 221538
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
938 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD TROUGH FROM AB INTO NORTH CENTRAL WY.
WATER VAPOUR HAD UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER CENTRAL ID WITH LEAD
SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHWEST CO. THIS WAVE WILL SPIN NORTHEAST TODAY
AS UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST. INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED...BUT PRECIPITATION NOT LIKELY TO START UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS PER 12Z KUNR SOUNDING
AND MLCIN. SHRA/TSRA WILL ADVECT/DEVELOP INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN SHIFT EAST TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE EVEN LESS CONDUCIVE TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING PEAK HEATING AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE BLACK HILLS TONIGHT WHERE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. GIVEN
INCREASING GRADIENT AHEAD OF SURFACE FEATURES...HAVE BUMPED WINDS
UP ON THE SD PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE TO ADDRESS PRECIPITATION TIMING AND WINDS COMING SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE
REGION IN THE PERIOD...SUPPORTING SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA...ALBEIT A SMALL CHANCE MOST AREAS. DEPARTING SFC
RIDGE HAS LEFT A SIG DRY WEDGE ACROSS THE REGION...HIGHLY LIMITING
PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL POS THETA-E ADV PROCESSES CAN SIG INCREASE BL
MOISTURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON PER STAUNCH LL SOUTHERLY FLOW.
QUICKER EXIT AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES TO MAINLY SCENTRAL SD
WHERE THE BEST OVERLAP OF THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE. MAIN CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO
ADJUST POPS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA...ESP IN THE TUES PERIOD WHEN
LARGE SCALE SINK WILL SPREAD NW-SE OVER THE REGION.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUD CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE
PROPAGATING CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST...SUPPORTING A
BAND OF ELEVATED POS THETA-E ADV. DRY LL PROFILES AND HIGH CENTERED
LIFT WILL LIMIT PRECIP TO SPRINKLES THROUGH MORNING WESTERN
AREAS...AND SO HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS THERE. DIURNAL HEATING WILL
LEAD TO A SMALL UPTICK IN POPS ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON /ESP
THE BH/ ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING...EVIDENT WELL IN BUFR
PROFILES. HENCE HAVE FAVORED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST PLACES...SAVE
THE BH /GIVEN TERRAIN INFLUENCES/ AND SCENTRAL SD WHERE POS THETA-E
ADV AND THE STRONGEST LSA WILL OVERLAP THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THIS EVENING SCENTRAL AREAS...WHERE 40S AND
50S WERE RETAINED. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE IS FAVORED OVER NW AREAS
IN NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT...FAVORING REMOVAL OF PRECIP CHANCES
THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN LACK OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY...PRECIP
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TS
POSSIBLE. SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH 70S
AND FEW 80S. ONGOING LL PRESSURE FALLS WILL SUPPORT A BREEZY DAY ON
THE SD PLAINS...WITH 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS EXPECTED THERE.

TUES...UPPER LOW/IMPULSE WILL SHIFT EAST WITH BACKSIDE SUBSIDENCE
SPREADING OVER THE REGION WEST-EAST. LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO FORCE A FEW SHRA FROM THE BH SE INTO SCENTRAL
SD...ALTHOUGH SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION IS NOT THE GREATEST GIVEN LACK
OF APPRECIABLE LL MOISTURE AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HAVE CUT POPS
ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LOW 80S MOST
PLACES...SAVE THE BH AND FAR SCENTRAL SD. UPPER IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL DEPART THE REGION TUE NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING...SAVE PERHAPS A LINGERING SHOWER OVER TRIPP
COUNTY IN THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS...AND HIGHS
WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THE ECM
AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND
RETROGRADING BACK OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER...SO WILL LEAVE OUT POPS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
WRN CONUS IS PROGGED TO REACH THE HIGH PLAINS BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA. GFS IS
STILL QUICKER THAN THE ECM WITH THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIP IN
BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ISOLD TO SCT
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE WY TO SW
SD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON THE SD PLAINS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE





000
FXUS63 KUNR 221538
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
938 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD TROUGH FROM AB INTO NORTH CENTRAL WY.
WATER VAPOUR HAD UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER CENTRAL ID WITH LEAD
SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHWEST CO. THIS WAVE WILL SPIN NORTHEAST TODAY
AS UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST. INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED...BUT PRECIPITATION NOT LIKELY TO START UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS PER 12Z KUNR SOUNDING
AND MLCIN. SHRA/TSRA WILL ADVECT/DEVELOP INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN SHIFT EAST TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE EVEN LESS CONDUCIVE TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING PEAK HEATING AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE BLACK HILLS TONIGHT WHERE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. GIVEN
INCREASING GRADIENT AHEAD OF SURFACE FEATURES...HAVE BUMPED WINDS
UP ON THE SD PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE TO ADDRESS PRECIPITATION TIMING AND WINDS COMING SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE
REGION IN THE PERIOD...SUPPORTING SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA...ALBEIT A SMALL CHANCE MOST AREAS. DEPARTING SFC
RIDGE HAS LEFT A SIG DRY WEDGE ACROSS THE REGION...HIGHLY LIMITING
PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL POS THETA-E ADV PROCESSES CAN SIG INCREASE BL
MOISTURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON PER STAUNCH LL SOUTHERLY FLOW.
QUICKER EXIT AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES TO MAINLY SCENTRAL SD
WHERE THE BEST OVERLAP OF THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE. MAIN CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO
ADJUST POPS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA...ESP IN THE TUES PERIOD WHEN
LARGE SCALE SINK WILL SPREAD NW-SE OVER THE REGION.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUD CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE
PROPAGATING CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST...SUPPORTING A
BAND OF ELEVATED POS THETA-E ADV. DRY LL PROFILES AND HIGH CENTERED
LIFT WILL LIMIT PRECIP TO SPRINKLES THROUGH MORNING WESTERN
AREAS...AND SO HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS THERE. DIURNAL HEATING WILL
LEAD TO A SMALL UPTICK IN POPS ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON /ESP
THE BH/ ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING...EVIDENT WELL IN BUFR
PROFILES. HENCE HAVE FAVORED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST PLACES...SAVE
THE BH /GIVEN TERRAIN INFLUENCES/ AND SCENTRAL SD WHERE POS THETA-E
ADV AND THE STRONGEST LSA WILL OVERLAP THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THIS EVENING SCENTRAL AREAS...WHERE 40S AND
50S WERE RETAINED. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE IS FAVORED OVER NW AREAS
IN NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT...FAVORING REMOVAL OF PRECIP CHANCES
THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN LACK OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY...PRECIP
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TS
POSSIBLE. SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH 70S
AND FEW 80S. ONGOING LL PRESSURE FALLS WILL SUPPORT A BREEZY DAY ON
THE SD PLAINS...WITH 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS EXPECTED THERE.

TUES...UPPER LOW/IMPULSE WILL SHIFT EAST WITH BACKSIDE SUBSIDENCE
SPREADING OVER THE REGION WEST-EAST. LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO FORCE A FEW SHRA FROM THE BH SE INTO SCENTRAL
SD...ALTHOUGH SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION IS NOT THE GREATEST GIVEN LACK
OF APPRECIABLE LL MOISTURE AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HAVE CUT POPS
ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LOW 80S MOST
PLACES...SAVE THE BH AND FAR SCENTRAL SD. UPPER IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL DEPART THE REGION TUE NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING...SAVE PERHAPS A LINGERING SHOWER OVER TRIPP
COUNTY IN THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS...AND HIGHS
WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THE ECM
AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND
RETROGRADING BACK OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER...SO WILL LEAVE OUT POPS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
WRN CONUS IS PROGGED TO REACH THE HIGH PLAINS BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA. GFS IS
STILL QUICKER THAN THE ECM WITH THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIP IN
BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ISOLD TO SCT
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE WY TO SW
SD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON THE SD PLAINS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE






000
FXUS63 KUNR 220819
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
219 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL ADVECT
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE PERIOD...SUPPORTING SOME CHANCES FOR
RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...ALBEIT A SMALL CHANCE MOST AREAS.
DEPARTING SFC RIDGE HAS LEFT A SIG DRY WEDGE ACROSS THE
REGION...HIGHLY LIMITING PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL POS THETA-E ADV
PROCESSES CAN SIG INCREASE BL MOISTURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON PER
STAUNCH LL SOUTHERLY FLOW. QUICKER EXIT AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIMIT PRECIP
CHANCES TO MAINLY SCENTRAL SD WHERE THE BEST OVERLAP OF THESE
FEATURES ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE. MAIN CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADJUST POPS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA...ESP IN
THE TUES PERIOD WHEN LARGE SCALE SINK WILL SPREAD NW-SE OVER THE
REGION.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUD CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE
PROPAGATING CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST...SUPPORTING A
BAND OF ELEVATED POS THETA-E ADV. DRY LL PROFILES AND HIGH CENTERED
LIFT WILL LIMIT PRECIP TO SPRINKLES THROUGH MORNING WESTERN
AREAS...AND SO HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS THERE. DIURNAL HEATING WILL
LEAD TO A SMALL UPTICK IN POPS ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON /ESP
THE BH/ ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING...EVIDENT WELL IN BUFR
PROFILES. HENCE HAVE FAVORED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST PLACES...SAVE
THE BH /GIVEN TERRAIN INFLUENCES/ AND SCENTRAL SD WHERE POS THETA-E
ADV AND THE STRONGEST LSA WILL OVERLAP THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THIS EVENING SCENTRAL AREAS...WHERE 40S AND
50S WERE RETAINED. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE IS FAVORED OVER NW AREAS
IN NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT...FAVORING REMOVAL OF PRECIP CHANCES
THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN LACK OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY...PRECIP
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TS
POSSIBLE. SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH 70S
AND FEW 80S. ONGOING LL PRESSURE FALLS WILL SUPPORT A BREEZY DAY ON
THE SD PLAINS...WITH 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS EXPECTED THERE.

TUES...UPPER LOW/IMPULSE WILL SHIFT EAST WITH BACKSIDE SUBSIDENCE
SPREADING OVER THE REGION WEST-EAST. LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO FORCE A FEW SHRA FROM THE BH SE INTO SCENTRAL
SD...ALTHOUGH SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION IS NOT THE GREATEST GIVEN LACK
OF APPRECIABLE LL MOISTURE AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HAVE CUT POPS
ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LOW 80S MOST
PLACES...SAVE THE BH AND FAR SCENTRAL SD. UPPER IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL DEPART THE REGION TUE NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING...SAVE PERHAPS A LINGERING SHOWER OVER TRIPP
COUNTY IN THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS...AND HIGHS
WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THE ECM
AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND
RETROGRADING BACK OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER...SO WILL LEAVE OUT POPS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
WRN CONUS IS PROGGED TO REACH THE HIGH PLAINS BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA. GFS IS
STILL QUICKER THAN THE ECM WITH THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIP IN
BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ISOLD TO SCT
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE WY TO SW
SD MONDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE








000
FXUS63 KUNR 220819
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
219 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL ADVECT
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE PERIOD...SUPPORTING SOME CHANCES FOR
RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...ALBEIT A SMALL CHANCE MOST AREAS.
DEPARTING SFC RIDGE HAS LEFT A SIG DRY WEDGE ACROSS THE
REGION...HIGHLY LIMITING PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL POS THETA-E ADV
PROCESSES CAN SIG INCREASE BL MOISTURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON PER
STAUNCH LL SOUTHERLY FLOW. QUICKER EXIT AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIMIT PRECIP
CHANCES TO MAINLY SCENTRAL SD WHERE THE BEST OVERLAP OF THESE
FEATURES ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE. MAIN CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADJUST POPS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA...ESP IN
THE TUES PERIOD WHEN LARGE SCALE SINK WILL SPREAD NW-SE OVER THE
REGION.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUD CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE
PROPAGATING CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST...SUPPORTING A
BAND OF ELEVATED POS THETA-E ADV. DRY LL PROFILES AND HIGH CENTERED
LIFT WILL LIMIT PRECIP TO SPRINKLES THROUGH MORNING WESTERN
AREAS...AND SO HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS THERE. DIURNAL HEATING WILL
LEAD TO A SMALL UPTICK IN POPS ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON /ESP
THE BH/ ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING...EVIDENT WELL IN BUFR
PROFILES. HENCE HAVE FAVORED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST PLACES...SAVE
THE BH /GIVEN TERRAIN INFLUENCES/ AND SCENTRAL SD WHERE POS THETA-E
ADV AND THE STRONGEST LSA WILL OVERLAP THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THIS EVENING SCENTRAL AREAS...WHERE 40S AND
50S WERE RETAINED. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE IS FAVORED OVER NW AREAS
IN NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT...FAVORING REMOVAL OF PRECIP CHANCES
THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN LACK OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY...PRECIP
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TS
POSSIBLE. SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH 70S
AND FEW 80S. ONGOING LL PRESSURE FALLS WILL SUPPORT A BREEZY DAY ON
THE SD PLAINS...WITH 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS EXPECTED THERE.

TUES...UPPER LOW/IMPULSE WILL SHIFT EAST WITH BACKSIDE SUBSIDENCE
SPREADING OVER THE REGION WEST-EAST. LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO FORCE A FEW SHRA FROM THE BH SE INTO SCENTRAL
SD...ALTHOUGH SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION IS NOT THE GREATEST GIVEN LACK
OF APPRECIABLE LL MOISTURE AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HAVE CUT POPS
ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LOW 80S MOST
PLACES...SAVE THE BH AND FAR SCENTRAL SD. UPPER IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL DEPART THE REGION TUE NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING...SAVE PERHAPS A LINGERING SHOWER OVER TRIPP
COUNTY IN THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS...AND HIGHS
WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THE ECM
AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND
RETROGRADING BACK OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER...SO WILL LEAVE OUT POPS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
WRN CONUS IS PROGGED TO REACH THE HIGH PLAINS BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA. GFS IS
STILL QUICKER THAN THE ECM WITH THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIP IN
BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ISOLD TO SCT
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE WY TO SW
SD MONDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE







000
FXUS63 KUNR 220441
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1041 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SLOWLY MOVING EAST. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHIFT EAST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NV
MOVING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. COULD BE A FEW BREEZY SPOTS OVER THE
FAVORED NORTHEAST WY/HILLS LOCATIONS GIVEN PRESSURE FALLS/WARM AIR
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WY WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
IT FROM MT INTO WESTERN NE. LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
EVENTUALLY CREATE SOME CAPE OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST TO THE EAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
SPOTS AHEAD OF TROUGH LIKELY GIVEN TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DOWNPLAY THE PRECIPITATION/MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY
GIVEN NOTICEABLY WARMER 850-700MB THERMAL PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...AND THEN
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS...AND HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THE ECM AND GFS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND RETROGRADING
BACK OVER THE GREAT PLAINS...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK OVER NEB/KS. WILL LEAVE OUT POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS IS PROGGED TO REACH
THE HIGH PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1039 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLD TO SCT
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN WY AND SWRN SD
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY AFTN/EVE. LCL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE HEAVIER PRECIP. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...10








000
FXUS63 KUNR 212314
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
514 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SLOWLY MOVING EAST. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHIFT EAST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NV
MOVING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. COULD BE A FEW BREEZY SPOTS OVER THE
FAVORED NORTHEAST WY/HILLS LOCATIONS GIVEN PRESSURE FALLS/WARM AIR
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WY WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
IT FROM MT INTO WESTERN NE. LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
EVENTUALLY CREATE SOME CAPE OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST TO THE EAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
SPOTS AHEAD OF TROUGH LIKELY GIVEN TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DOWNPLAY THE PRECIPITATION/MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY
GIVEN NOTICEABLY WARMER 850-700MB THERMAL PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...AND THEN
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS...AND HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THE ECM AND GFS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND RETROGRADING
BACK OVER THE GREAT PLAINS...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK OVER NEB/KS. WILL LEAVE OUT POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS IS PROGGED TO REACH
THE HIGH PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLD TO SCT
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN WY AND SWRN SD
MONDAY MORNING...SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY AFTN/EVE. LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...10








000
FXUS63 KUNR 212314
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
514 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SLOWLY MOVING EAST. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHIFT EAST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NV
MOVING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. COULD BE A FEW BREEZY SPOTS OVER THE
FAVORED NORTHEAST WY/HILLS LOCATIONS GIVEN PRESSURE FALLS/WARM AIR
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WY WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
IT FROM MT INTO WESTERN NE. LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
EVENTUALLY CREATE SOME CAPE OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST TO THE EAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
SPOTS AHEAD OF TROUGH LIKELY GIVEN TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DOWNPLAY THE PRECIPITATION/MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY
GIVEN NOTICEABLY WARMER 850-700MB THERMAL PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...AND THEN
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS...AND HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THE ECM AND GFS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND RETROGRADING
BACK OVER THE GREAT PLAINS...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK OVER NEB/KS. WILL LEAVE OUT POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS IS PROGGED TO REACH
THE HIGH PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLD TO SCT
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN WY AND SWRN SD
MONDAY MORNING...SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY AFTN/EVE. LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 212013
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
213 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SLOWLY MOVING EAST. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHIFT EAST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NV
MOVING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. COULD BE A FEW BREEZY SPOTS OVER THE
FAVORED NORTHEAST WY/HILLS LOCATIONS GIVEN PRESSURE FALLS/WARM AIR
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WY WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
IT FROM MT INTO WESTERN NE. LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
EVENTUALLY CREATE SOME CAPE OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST TO THE EAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
SPOTS AHEAD OF TROUGH LIKELY GIVEN TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DOWNPLAY THE PRECIPITATION/MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY
GIVEN NOTICEABLY WARMER 850-700MB THERMAL PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...AND THEN
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS...AND HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THE ECM AND GFS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND RETROGRADING
BACK OVER THE GREAT PLAINS...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK OVER NEB/KS. WILL LEAVE OUT POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS IS PROGGED TO REACH
THE HIGH PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. ISLD TO SCT
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE WY TO SW SD MONDAY
MORNING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...55






000
FXUS63 KUNR 212013
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
213 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SLOWLY MOVING EAST. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHIFT EAST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NV
MOVING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. COULD BE A FEW BREEZY SPOTS OVER THE
FAVORED NORTHEAST WY/HILLS LOCATIONS GIVEN PRESSURE FALLS/WARM AIR
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WY WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
IT FROM MT INTO WESTERN NE. LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
EVENTUALLY CREATE SOME CAPE OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST TO THE EAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
SPOTS AHEAD OF TROUGH LIKELY GIVEN TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DOWNPLAY THE PRECIPITATION/MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY
GIVEN NOTICEABLY WARMER 850-700MB THERMAL PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...AND THEN
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS...AND HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THE ECM AND GFS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND RETROGRADING
BACK OVER THE GREAT PLAINS...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK OVER NEB/KS. WILL LEAVE OUT POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS IS PROGGED TO REACH
THE HIGH PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. ISLD TO SCT
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE WY TO SW SD MONDAY
MORNING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...55





000
FXUS63 KUNR 211725
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1125 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE OF THE REGION TODAY AS THE SW
CONUS UPPER LOW EJECTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LL WAA WILL
SUPPORT AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AS SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW REVS UP. DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EJECTING LOW WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...WITH POS
THETA-E ADV PREVAILING THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LSA
WILL SUPPORT ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...ESP THE SE FA AS THE SW CONUS UPPER LOW EJECTS NE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED THETA-E RIDGE.

TODAY...DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER ON TAP AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SEASONAL TEMPS ALL PLACES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S UNDER GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. LL PRESSURE FALLS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER POS THETA-E ADV PER THE
ADVANCING SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME. GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS NE WY AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN BH FOOTHILLS
OVERNIGHT GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF PRESSURE FALLS. LACK OF APPRECIABLE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH RELATIVELY STABLE PROFILES PER ELEVATED
CONVECTION PRECLUDES ANY POP MENTION TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED DRY ALL
PLACES.

MONDAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT NE OVER THE FA WITH
DIURNAL HEATING SUPPORTING DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...EXPECTED MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY HAMPER THIS PROCESS...LEAVING SOME DOUBT TO
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY OUTSIDE NE WY. INCREASING LSA PER THE
ADVANCING IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS MOST
PLACES. HOWEVER...LACK OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY WITH THE BULK OF
FORCING SHIFTING TOWARD SCENTRAL SD SUPPORTS MOSTLY LOW CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THROUGH MON NIGHT...SAVE
FOR SCENTRAL SD WHERE OVERLAP OF STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING/DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND. ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE FA IS
EXPECTED TO MAINLY DIURNALLY FORCED AND MORE OF A WIDELY SCT TO
ISOLD NATURE. DID RAISE POPS OVER SCENTRAL SD TO HIGH CHANCE AND
LIKELIES...ESP TOWARD TRIPP COUNTY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WITH FORECAST MODELS SUPPORTING
WELL OVER AN INCH OF PW. HENCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE...ESP OVER SCENTRAL SD. OTHERWISE...MAINLY SEASONAL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY...AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST.
DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS...AND HIGHS WILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THE ECM AND
GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND
RETROGRADING BACK OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE GFS KEEPS THIS LOW
FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE THE ECM HAS IT LINGERING OVER WESTERN SD
BEFORE IT GETS PUSHED BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW. ALSO THE GFS IS
QUICKER THAN THE ECM WITH BRINGING EASTWARD THE BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ISLD TO SCT
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE WY TO SW SD MONDAY
MORNING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...13








000
FXUS63 KUNR 211725
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1125 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE OF THE REGION TODAY AS THE SW
CONUS UPPER LOW EJECTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LL WAA WILL
SUPPORT AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AS SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW REVS UP. DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EJECTING LOW WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...WITH POS
THETA-E ADV PREVAILING THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LSA
WILL SUPPORT ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...ESP THE SE FA AS THE SW CONUS UPPER LOW EJECTS NE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED THETA-E RIDGE.

TODAY...DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER ON TAP AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SEASONAL TEMPS ALL PLACES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S UNDER GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. LL PRESSURE FALLS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER POS THETA-E ADV PER THE
ADVANCING SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME. GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS NE WY AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN BH FOOTHILLS
OVERNIGHT GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF PRESSURE FALLS. LACK OF APPRECIABLE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH RELATIVELY STABLE PROFILES PER ELEVATED
CONVECTION PRECLUDES ANY POP MENTION TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED DRY ALL
PLACES.

MONDAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT NE OVER THE FA WITH
DIURNAL HEATING SUPPORTING DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...EXPECTED MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY HAMPER THIS PROCESS...LEAVING SOME DOUBT TO
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY OUTSIDE NE WY. INCREASING LSA PER THE
ADVANCING IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS MOST
PLACES. HOWEVER...LACK OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY WITH THE BULK OF
FORCING SHIFTING TOWARD SCENTRAL SD SUPPORTS MOSTLY LOW CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THROUGH MON NIGHT...SAVE
FOR SCENTRAL SD WHERE OVERLAP OF STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING/DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND. ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE FA IS
EXPECTED TO MAINLY DIURNALLY FORCED AND MORE OF A WIDELY SCT TO
ISOLD NATURE. DID RAISE POPS OVER SCENTRAL SD TO HIGH CHANCE AND
LIKELIES...ESP TOWARD TRIPP COUNTY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WITH FORECAST MODELS SUPPORTING
WELL OVER AN INCH OF PW. HENCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE...ESP OVER SCENTRAL SD. OTHERWISE...MAINLY SEASONAL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY...AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST.
DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS...AND HIGHS WILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THE ECM AND
GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND
RETROGRADING BACK OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE GFS KEEPS THIS LOW
FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE THE ECM HAS IT LINGERING OVER WESTERN SD
BEFORE IT GETS PUSHED BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW. ALSO THE GFS IS
QUICKER THAN THE ECM WITH BRINGING EASTWARD THE BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ISLD TO SCT
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE WY TO SW SD MONDAY
MORNING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KUNR 210806
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
206 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE OF THE REGION TODAY AS THE SW
CONUS UPPER LOW EJECTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LL WAA WILL
SUPPORT AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AS SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW REVS UP. DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EJECTING LOW WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...WITH POS
THETA-E ADV PREVAILING THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LSA
WILL SUPPORT ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...ESP THE SE FA AS THE SW CONUS UPPER LOW EJECTS NE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED THETA-E RIDGE.

TODAY...DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER ON TAP AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SEASONAL TEMPS ALL PLACES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S UNDER GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. LL PRESSURE FALLS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER POS THETA-E ADV PER THE
ADVANCING SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME. GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS NE WY AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN BH FOOTHILLS
OVERNIGHT GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF PRESSURE FALLS. LACK OF APPRECIABLE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH RELATIVELY STABLE PROFILES PER ELEVATED
CONVECTION PRECLUDES ANY POP MENTION TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED DRY ALL
PLACES.

MONDAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT NE OVER THE FA WITH
DIURNAL HEATING SUPPORTING DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...EXPECTED MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY HAMPER THIS PROCESS...LEAVING SOME DOUBT TO
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY OUTSIDE NE WY. INCREASING LSA PER THE
ADVANCING IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS MOST
PLACES. HOWEVER...LACK OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY WITH THE BULK OF
FORCING SHIFTING TOWARD SCENTRAL SD SUPPORTS MOSTLY LOW CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THROUGH MON NIGHT...SAVE
FOR SCENTRAL SD WHERE OVERLAP OF STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING/DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND. ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE FA IS
EXPECTED TO MAINLY DIURNALLY FORCED AND MORE OF A WIDELY SCT TO
ISOLD NATURE. DID RAISE POPS OVER SCENTRAL SD TO HIGH CHANCE AND
LIKELIES...ESP TOWARD TRIPP COUNTY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WITH FORECAST MODELS SUPPORTING
WELL OVER AN INCH OF PW. HENCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE...ESP OVER SCENTRAL SD. OTHERWISE...MAINLY SEASONAL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY...AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST.
DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS...AND HIGHS WILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THE ECM AND
GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND
RETROGRADING BACK OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE GFS KEEPS THIS LOW
FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE THE ECM HAS IT LINGERING OVER WESTERN SD
BEFORE IT GETS PUSHED BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW. ALSO THE GFS IS
QUICKER THAN THE ECM WITH BRINGING EASTWARD THE BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

BESIDES SOME BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE








000
FXUS63 KUNR 210806
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
206 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE OF THE REGION TODAY AS THE SW
CONUS UPPER LOW EJECTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LL WAA WILL
SUPPORT AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AS SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW REVS UP. DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EJECTING LOW WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...WITH POS
THETA-E ADV PREVAILING THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LSA
WILL SUPPORT ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...ESP THE SE FA AS THE SW CONUS UPPER LOW EJECTS NE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED THETA-E RIDGE.

TODAY...DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER ON TAP AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SEASONAL TEMPS ALL PLACES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S UNDER GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. LL PRESSURE FALLS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER POS THETA-E ADV PER THE
ADVANCING SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME. GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS NE WY AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN BH FOOTHILLS
OVERNIGHT GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF PRESSURE FALLS. LACK OF APPRECIABLE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH RELATIVELY STABLE PROFILES PER ELEVATED
CONVECTION PRECLUDES ANY POP MENTION TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED DRY ALL
PLACES.

MONDAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT NE OVER THE FA WITH
DIURNAL HEATING SUPPORTING DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...EXPECTED MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY HAMPER THIS PROCESS...LEAVING SOME DOUBT TO
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY OUTSIDE NE WY. INCREASING LSA PER THE
ADVANCING IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS MOST
PLACES. HOWEVER...LACK OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY WITH THE BULK OF
FORCING SHIFTING TOWARD SCENTRAL SD SUPPORTS MOSTLY LOW CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THROUGH MON NIGHT...SAVE
FOR SCENTRAL SD WHERE OVERLAP OF STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING/DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND. ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE FA IS
EXPECTED TO MAINLY DIURNALLY FORCED AND MORE OF A WIDELY SCT TO
ISOLD NATURE. DID RAISE POPS OVER SCENTRAL SD TO HIGH CHANCE AND
LIKELIES...ESP TOWARD TRIPP COUNTY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WITH FORECAST MODELS SUPPORTING
WELL OVER AN INCH OF PW. HENCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE...ESP OVER SCENTRAL SD. OTHERWISE...MAINLY SEASONAL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY...AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST.
DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS...AND HIGHS WILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THE ECM AND
GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND
RETROGRADING BACK OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE GFS KEEPS THIS LOW
FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE THE ECM HAS IT LINGERING OVER WESTERN SD
BEFORE IT GETS PUSHED BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW. ALSO THE GFS IS
QUICKER THAN THE ECM WITH BRINGING EASTWARD THE BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

BESIDES SOME BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE







000
FXUS63 KUNR 210510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE SD PLAINS
WITH WINDS PEAKING SO WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING UNTIL EXPIRATION AT
23Z.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL OFF NICELY WITH READINGS
NEAR GUIDANCE BY MORNING.

SUNDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE MOVES FROM THE CWA TO THE
MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OVER THE WEST
WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW MOVES INTO ID/WY/UT...PINCHING OFF UPPER
RIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLOWER RETURN OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON POPS UNTIL VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT ABOUT A CUT-OFF LOW CROSSING THE
REGION THROUGH FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING IN THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AS A RIDGE BUILDS...HOWEVER NOW BOTH THE ECM AND GFS SHOW A
SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND RETROGRADING BACK OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. MODELS SHOWED A SIMILAR SOLUTION TWO OR THREE DAYS AGO
BEFORE QUICKLY ABANDONING IT...BUT NOW ITS BACK AGAIN. EITHER
WAY...SEE NO REASON TO ADD POPS. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 210510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE SD PLAINS
WITH WINDS PEAKING SO WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING UNTIL EXPIRATION AT
23Z.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL OFF NICELY WITH READINGS
NEAR GUIDANCE BY MORNING.

SUNDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE MOVES FROM THE CWA TO THE
MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OVER THE WEST
WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW MOVES INTO ID/WY/UT...PINCHING OFF UPPER
RIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLOWER RETURN OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON POPS UNTIL VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT ABOUT A CUT-OFF LOW CROSSING THE
REGION THROUGH FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING IN THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AS A RIDGE BUILDS...HOWEVER NOW BOTH THE ECM AND GFS SHOW A
SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND RETROGRADING BACK OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. MODELS SHOWED A SIMILAR SOLUTION TWO OR THREE DAYS AGO
BEFORE QUICKLY ABANDONING IT...BUT NOW ITS BACK AGAIN. EITHER
WAY...SEE NO REASON TO ADD POPS. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...10








000
FXUS63 KUNR 202303
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
503 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 459 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXPIRE
THE WIND ADVISORY THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE SD PLAINS
WITH WINDS PEAKING SO WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING UNTIL EXPIRATION AT
23Z.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL OFF NICELY WITH READINGS
NEAR GUIDANCE BY MORNING.

SUNDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE MOVES FROM THE CWA TO THE
MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OVER THE WEST
WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW MOVES INTO ID/WY/UT...PINCHING OFF UPPER
RIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLOWER RETURN OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON POPS UNTIL VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT ABOUT A CUT-OFF LOW CROSSING THE
REGION THROUGH FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING IN THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AS A RIDGE BUILDS...HOWEVER NOW BOTH THE ECM AND GFS SHOW A
SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND RETROGRADING BACK OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. MODELS SHOWED A SIMILAR SOLUTION TWO OR THREE DAYS AGO
BEFORE QUICKLY ABANDONING IT...BUT NOW ITS BACK AGAIN. EITHER
WAY...SEE NO REASON TO ADD POPS. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING.
ISSUED AT 501 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS63 KUNR 202303
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
503 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 459 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXPIRE
THE WIND ADVISORY THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE SD PLAINS
WITH WINDS PEAKING SO WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING UNTIL EXPIRATION AT
23Z.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL OFF NICELY WITH READINGS
NEAR GUIDANCE BY MORNING.

SUNDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE MOVES FROM THE CWA TO THE
MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OVER THE WEST
WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW MOVES INTO ID/WY/UT...PINCHING OFF UPPER
RIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLOWER RETURN OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON POPS UNTIL VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT ABOUT A CUT-OFF LOW CROSSING THE
REGION THROUGH FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING IN THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AS A RIDGE BUILDS...HOWEVER NOW BOTH THE ECM AND GFS SHOW A
SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND RETROGRADING BACK OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. MODELS SHOWED A SIMILAR SOLUTION TWO OR THREE DAYS AGO
BEFORE QUICKLY ABANDONING IT...BUT NOW ITS BACK AGAIN. EITHER
WAY...SEE NO REASON TO ADD POPS. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING.
ISSUED AT 501 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13







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