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000
FXUS63 KUNR 292059
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
259 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SK...WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MT AND NORTHERN ID. A
SURFACE TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST
WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME WESTERLY OVER THE AREA AND
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S IN THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST...BREEZY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY. HAZY
SUNSHINE CONTINUES THROUGH THE SMOKE...THOUGH CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOT
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT
INTO MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE
USUAL AREAS FROM NORTHEAST WY THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO DRY TO GET ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE
JET.

SUNDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ON THE PLAINS AS THE THERMAL RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD DURING THE DAY. EXACT TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT IT SHOULD MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST WY LATE IN THE DAY AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL SD
OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
THE FRONT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IS MINIMAL WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...THOUGH WINDS
COULD GET GUSTY WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY WARM CONDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW PERSISTS. THE WESTERN NOAM
UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS A STRONGER NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE MERGES WITH IT...LEADING TOWARD BREAKDOWN OF THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE. IN THE MEANTIME...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS. WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...
SUPPORTING COOLER BUT STILL SEASONAL TEMPS IN A CAA REGIME MONDAY.
CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE WILL RE-SURGE TUE-THUR...WITH VERY WARM CONDS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW SPREADS OVER THE REGION.
WEAK SW FLOW IMPULSES COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TS IN THE
TUE-WED PERIOD...ESP WITH ANY CONCENTRATED POS THETA-E ADV.
HOWEVER...LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE SIGNALS PRECLUDE ANY POP
MENTION. NW PAC UPPER TROUGH WILL BIAS EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH COOLER WEATHER LOOKING MORE LIKELY WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH ISOLD MVFR VIS POSSIBLE IN SMOKE FROM
WESTERN WILDFIRES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP TO 15
PERCENT OR BELOW THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STRONGEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SW WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED SUN.
PARTIALLY MIXED CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT GIVEN PRESSURE
FALLS...WITH SW WINDS CONTINUING UNDER POOR RH RECOVERY. WENT
AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THIS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 292059
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
259 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SK...WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MT AND NORTHERN ID. A
SURFACE TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST
WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME WESTERLY OVER THE AREA AND
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S IN THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST...BREEZY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY. HAZY
SUNSHINE CONTINUES THROUGH THE SMOKE...THOUGH CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOT
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT
INTO MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE
USUAL AREAS FROM NORTHEAST WY THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO DRY TO GET ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE
JET.

SUNDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ON THE PLAINS AS THE THERMAL RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD DURING THE DAY. EXACT TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT IT SHOULD MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST WY LATE IN THE DAY AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL SD
OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
THE FRONT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IS MINIMAL WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...THOUGH WINDS
COULD GET GUSTY WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY WARM CONDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW PERSISTS. THE WESTERN NOAM
UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS A STRONGER NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE MERGES WITH IT...LEADING TOWARD BREAKDOWN OF THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE. IN THE MEANTIME...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS. WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...
SUPPORTING COOLER BUT STILL SEASONAL TEMPS IN A CAA REGIME MONDAY.
CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE WILL RE-SURGE TUE-THUR...WITH VERY WARM CONDS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW SPREADS OVER THE REGION.
WEAK SW FLOW IMPULSES COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TS IN THE
TUE-WED PERIOD...ESP WITH ANY CONCENTRATED POS THETA-E ADV.
HOWEVER...LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE SIGNALS PRECLUDE ANY POP
MENTION. NW PAC UPPER TROUGH WILL BIAS EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH COOLER WEATHER LOOKING MORE LIKELY WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH ISOLD MVFR VIS POSSIBLE IN SMOKE FROM
WESTERN WILDFIRES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP TO 15
PERCENT OR BELOW THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STRONGEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SW WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED SUN.
PARTIALLY MIXED CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT GIVEN PRESSURE
FALLS...WITH SW WINDS CONTINUING UNDER POOR RH RECOVERY. WENT
AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THIS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...JC





000
FXUS63 KUNR 291720
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1120 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SK...WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MT AND NORTHERN ID. A
SURFACE TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST
WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME WESTERLY OVER THE AREA AND
EVENTUALLY WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN MOST AREAS.

AS MIXING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
TROF THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...THE CONDITIONS WITH REGARD TO SMOKE SHOULD AT LEAST
GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
FOR NOW...WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND AREAS OF SMOKE INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEAST WY AND MOST OF WESTERN SD. WILL LOOK AT
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND SEE IF SOME AREAS NEED TO HAVE IT
EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER UPDATES MADE TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS TODAY. SWRLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER AIR TODAY. SMOKE
ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR UP THIS MORNING AS THE FLOW
SWITCHES TO THE SW LEAVING SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE
UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S. BREEZY S/SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS REACHING 15-20 MPH OVER NE WY. BREEZY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE PAC NW
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SUNDAY. VERY WARM AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S TO JUST ABOVE 100. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS MT SUN AND PUSH INTO THE NRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
A SL CHC FOR STORMS LATE SUN THROUGH THE NIGHT. RELATIVELY DRY AIR
AND FAST MOVING BOUNDARY WILL KEEP QPF RELATIVELY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS
DEVELOPING THEN SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. EXTENDED MODELS ARE
IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT SHOWING PHASING OF THE NW PAC UPPER TROUGH
WITH A STRONG NORTHERN CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH LIKELY LEADING TOWARD
THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY NEXT WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS. NW PAC
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH COOLER
WEATHER LOOKING MORE LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH ISOLD MVFR VIS POSSIBLE IN SMOKE FROM
WESTERN WILDFIRES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TODAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS DROPPING TO BELOW 15%.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 OR
HIGHER. WILL ISSUE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVNG. GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW RH ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
FIRE WEATHER WATCH. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WYZ259-297-298.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 291720
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1120 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SK...WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MT AND NORTHERN ID. A
SURFACE TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST
WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME WESTERLY OVER THE AREA AND
EVENTUALLY WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN MOST AREAS.

AS MIXING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
TROF THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...THE CONDITIONS WITH REGARD TO SMOKE SHOULD AT LEAST
GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
FOR NOW...WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND AREAS OF SMOKE INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEAST WY AND MOST OF WESTERN SD. WILL LOOK AT
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND SEE IF SOME AREAS NEED TO HAVE IT
EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER UPDATES MADE TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS TODAY. SWRLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER AIR TODAY. SMOKE
ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR UP THIS MORNING AS THE FLOW
SWITCHES TO THE SW LEAVING SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE
UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S. BREEZY S/SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS REACHING 15-20 MPH OVER NE WY. BREEZY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE PAC NW
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SUNDAY. VERY WARM AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S TO JUST ABOVE 100. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS MT SUN AND PUSH INTO THE NRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
A SL CHC FOR STORMS LATE SUN THROUGH THE NIGHT. RELATIVELY DRY AIR
AND FAST MOVING BOUNDARY WILL KEEP QPF RELATIVELY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS
DEVELOPING THEN SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. EXTENDED MODELS ARE
IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT SHOWING PHASING OF THE NW PAC UPPER TROUGH
WITH A STRONG NORTHERN CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH LIKELY LEADING TOWARD
THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY NEXT WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS. NW PAC
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH COOLER
WEATHER LOOKING MORE LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH ISOLD MVFR VIS POSSIBLE IN SMOKE FROM
WESTERN WILDFIRES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TODAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS DROPPING TO BELOW 15%.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 OR
HIGHER. WILL ISSUE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVNG. GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW RH ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
FIRE WEATHER WATCH. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WYZ259-297-298.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...13





000
FXUS63 KUNR 291652
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1052 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SK...WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MT AND NORTHERN ID. A
SURFACE TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST
WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME WESTERLY OVER THE AREA AND
EVENTUALLY WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN MOST AREAS.

AS MIXING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
TROF THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...THE CONDITIONS WITH REGARD TO SMOKE SHOULD AT LEAST
GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
FOR NOW...WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND AREAS OF SMOKE INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEAST WY AND MOST OF WESTERN SD. WILL LOOK AT
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND SEE IF SOME AREAS NEED TO HAVE IT
EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER UPDATES MADE TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS TODAY. SWRLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER AIR TODAY. SMOKE
ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR UP THIS MORNING AS THE FLOW
SWITCHES TO THE SW LEAVING SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE
UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S. BREEZY S/SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS REACHING 15-20 MPH OVER NE WY. BREEZY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE PAC NW
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SUNDAY. VERY WARM AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S TO JUST ABOVE 100. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS MT SUN AND PUSH INTO THE NRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
A SL CHC FOR STORMS LATE SUN THROUGH THE NIGHT. RELATIVELY DRY AIR
AND FAST MOVING BOUNDARY WILL KEEP QPF RELATIVELY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS
DEVELOPING THEN SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. EXTENDED MODELS ARE
IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT SHOWING PHASING OF THE NW PAC UPPER TROUGH
WITH A STRONG NORTHERN CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH LIKELY LEADING TOWARD
THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY NEXT WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS. NW PAC
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH COOLER
WEATHER LOOKING MORE LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH AREAS OF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE IN SMOKE FROM
WESTERN WILDFIRES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TODAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS DROPPING TO BELOW 15%.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 OR
HIGHER. WILL ISSUE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVNG. GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW RH ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
FIRE WEATHER WATCH. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WYZ259-297-298.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10
FIRE WEATHER...13





000
FXUS63 KUNR 291652
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1052 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SK...WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MT AND NORTHERN ID. A
SURFACE TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST
WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME WESTERLY OVER THE AREA AND
EVENTUALLY WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN MOST AREAS.

AS MIXING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
TROF THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...THE CONDITIONS WITH REGARD TO SMOKE SHOULD AT LEAST
GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
FOR NOW...WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND AREAS OF SMOKE INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEAST WY AND MOST OF WESTERN SD. WILL LOOK AT
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND SEE IF SOME AREAS NEED TO HAVE IT
EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER UPDATES MADE TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS TODAY. SWRLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER AIR TODAY. SMOKE
ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR UP THIS MORNING AS THE FLOW
SWITCHES TO THE SW LEAVING SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE
UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S. BREEZY S/SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS REACHING 15-20 MPH OVER NE WY. BREEZY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE PAC NW
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SUNDAY. VERY WARM AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S TO JUST ABOVE 100. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS MT SUN AND PUSH INTO THE NRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
A SL CHC FOR STORMS LATE SUN THROUGH THE NIGHT. RELATIVELY DRY AIR
AND FAST MOVING BOUNDARY WILL KEEP QPF RELATIVELY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS
DEVELOPING THEN SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. EXTENDED MODELS ARE
IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT SHOWING PHASING OF THE NW PAC UPPER TROUGH
WITH A STRONG NORTHERN CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH LIKELY LEADING TOWARD
THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY NEXT WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS. NW PAC
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH COOLER
WEATHER LOOKING MORE LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH AREAS OF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE IN SMOKE FROM
WESTERN WILDFIRES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TODAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS DROPPING TO BELOW 15%.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 OR
HIGHER. WILL ISSUE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVNG. GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW RH ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
FIRE WEATHER WATCH. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WYZ259-297-298.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10
FIRE WEATHER...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 291652
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1052 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SK...WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MT AND NORTHERN ID. A
SURFACE TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST
WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME WESTERLY OVER THE AREA AND
EVENTUALLY WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN MOST AREAS.

AS MIXING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
TROF THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...THE CONDITIONS WITH REGARD TO SMOKE SHOULD AT LEAST
GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
FOR NOW...WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND AREAS OF SMOKE INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEAST WY AND MOST OF WESTERN SD. WILL LOOK AT
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND SEE IF SOME AREAS NEED TO HAVE IT
EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER UPDATES MADE TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS TODAY. SWRLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER AIR TODAY. SMOKE
ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR UP THIS MORNING AS THE FLOW
SWITCHES TO THE SW LEAVING SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE
UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S. BREEZY S/SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS REACHING 15-20 MPH OVER NE WY. BREEZY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE PAC NW
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SUNDAY. VERY WARM AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S TO JUST ABOVE 100. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS MT SUN AND PUSH INTO THE NRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
A SL CHC FOR STORMS LATE SUN THROUGH THE NIGHT. RELATIVELY DRY AIR
AND FAST MOVING BOUNDARY WILL KEEP QPF RELATIVELY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS
DEVELOPING THEN SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. EXTENDED MODELS ARE
IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT SHOWING PHASING OF THE NW PAC UPPER TROUGH
WITH A STRONG NORTHERN CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH LIKELY LEADING TOWARD
THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY NEXT WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS. NW PAC
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH COOLER
WEATHER LOOKING MORE LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH AREAS OF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE IN SMOKE FROM
WESTERN WILDFIRES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TODAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS DROPPING TO BELOW 15%.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 OR
HIGHER. WILL ISSUE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVNG. GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW RH ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
FIRE WEATHER WATCH. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WYZ259-297-298.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10
FIRE WEATHER...13





000
FXUS63 KUNR 290918
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
318 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS TODAY. SWRLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER AIR TODAY. SMOKE
ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR UP THIS MORNING AS THE FLOW
SWITCHES TO THE SW LEAVING SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE
UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S. BREEZY S/SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS REACHING 15-20 MPH OVER NE WY. BREEZY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE PAC NW
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SUNDAY. VERY WARM AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S TO JUST ABOVE 100. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS MT SUN AND PUSH INTO THE NRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
A SL CHC FOR STORMS LATE SUN THROUGH THE NIGHT. RELATIVELY DRY AIR
AND FAST MOVING BOUNDARY WILL KEEP QPF RELATIVELY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS
DEVELOPING THEN SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. EXTENDED MODELS ARE
IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT SHOWING PHASING OF THE NW PAC UPPER TROUGH
WITH A STRONG NORTHERN CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH LIKELY LEADING TOWARD
THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY NEXT WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS. NW PAC
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH COOLER
WEATHER LOOKING MORE LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH AREAS OF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE IN SMOKE FROM
WESTERN WILDFIRES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TODAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS DROPPING TO BELOW 15%.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 OR
HIGHER. WILL ISSUE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVNG. GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW RH ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
FIRE WEATHER WATCH. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WYZ259-297-298.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10
FIRE WEATHER...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 290918
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
318 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS TODAY. SWRLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER AIR TODAY. SMOKE
ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR UP THIS MORNING AS THE FLOW
SWITCHES TO THE SW LEAVING SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE
UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S. BREEZY S/SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS REACHING 15-20 MPH OVER NE WY. BREEZY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE PAC NW
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SUNDAY. VERY WARM AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S TO JUST ABOVE 100. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS MT SUN AND PUSH INTO THE NRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
A SL CHC FOR STORMS LATE SUN THROUGH THE NIGHT. RELATIVELY DRY AIR
AND FAST MOVING BOUNDARY WILL KEEP QPF RELATIVELY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS
DEVELOPING THEN SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. EXTENDED MODELS ARE
IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT SHOWING PHASING OF THE NW PAC UPPER TROUGH
WITH A STRONG NORTHERN CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH LIKELY LEADING TOWARD
THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY NEXT WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS. NW PAC
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH COOLER
WEATHER LOOKING MORE LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH AREAS OF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE IN SMOKE FROM
WESTERN WILDFIRES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TODAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS DROPPING TO BELOW 15%.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 OR
HIGHER. WILL ISSUE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVNG. GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW RH ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
FIRE WEATHER WATCH. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WYZ259-297-298.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10
FIRE WEATHER...13





000
FXUS63 KUNR 290526
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1126 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
NEB...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS BRINGING SMOKE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE PACIFIC NW WILDFIRES. HAZY SUNSHINE IS NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S...SOME 70S OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
WINDS ARE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN
SD...WITH VARIABLE WINDS OVER CENTRAL SD.

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
BLACK HILLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL
DRIFT EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING VERY
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY. SMOKE WILL
STILL PUSH OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. LOWS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S IN
THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY WARM CONDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...GROWING INDICATIONS FOR PHASING OF THE
NW PAC UPPER TROUGH WITH A STRONG NORTHER CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH
WILL LIKELY LEAD TOWARD THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
IN THE MEANTIME...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS. WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD
REMAINS SUNDAY WHEN A THERMAL RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHRA/TS OVER NE WY AND FAR
WESTERN SD SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN NIGHT...MAINLY HIGH BASED
ACTIVITY. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING COOLER...BUT STILL SEASONAL TEMPS MONDAY.
CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE WILL RE-SURGE TUE-WED /POSSIBLY INTO
THU/...WITH VERY WARM CONDS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THEN. NW PAC UPPER
TROUGH WILL BIAS EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH COOLER WEATHER
LOOKING MORE LIKELY WITH POTENTIAL INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. AREAS MVFR VSBYS
EXPECTED DUE TO FU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS DROPPING TO 10% OR
BELOW. SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK MARGINAL FOR SATURDAY
ALTHOUGH STILL IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...POOR RH
RECOVERY IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL GUSTY SW WINDS.
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH LOOK MORE LIKELY SUNDAY...WITH RED FLAG
CONDS ALSO POSSIBLE THEN. HENCE...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...JC





000
FXUS63 KUNR 290526
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1126 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
NEB...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS BRINGING SMOKE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE PACIFIC NW WILDFIRES. HAZY SUNSHINE IS NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S...SOME 70S OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
WINDS ARE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN
SD...WITH VARIABLE WINDS OVER CENTRAL SD.

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
BLACK HILLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL
DRIFT EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING VERY
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY. SMOKE WILL
STILL PUSH OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. LOWS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S IN
THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY WARM CONDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...GROWING INDICATIONS FOR PHASING OF THE
NW PAC UPPER TROUGH WITH A STRONG NORTHER CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH
WILL LIKELY LEAD TOWARD THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
IN THE MEANTIME...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS. WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD
REMAINS SUNDAY WHEN A THERMAL RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHRA/TS OVER NE WY AND FAR
WESTERN SD SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN NIGHT...MAINLY HIGH BASED
ACTIVITY. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING COOLER...BUT STILL SEASONAL TEMPS MONDAY.
CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE WILL RE-SURGE TUE-WED /POSSIBLY INTO
THU/...WITH VERY WARM CONDS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THEN. NW PAC UPPER
TROUGH WILL BIAS EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH COOLER WEATHER
LOOKING MORE LIKELY WITH POTENTIAL INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. AREAS MVFR VSBYS
EXPECTED DUE TO FU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS DROPPING TO 10% OR
BELOW. SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK MARGINAL FOR SATURDAY
ALTHOUGH STILL IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...POOR RH
RECOVERY IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL GUSTY SW WINDS.
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH LOOK MORE LIKELY SUNDAY...WITH RED FLAG
CONDS ALSO POSSIBLE THEN. HENCE...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 282120
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
320 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
NEB...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS BRINGING SMOKE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE PACIFIC NW WILDFIRES. HAZY SUNSHINE IS NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S...SOME 70S OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
WINDS ARE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN
SD...WITH VARIABLE WINDS OVER CENTRAL SD.

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
BLACK HILLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL
DRIFT EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING VERY
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY. SMOKE WILL
STILL PUSH OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. LOWS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S IN
THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY WARM CONDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...GROWING INDICATIONS FOR PHASING OF THE
NW PAC UPPER TROUGH WITH A STRONG NORTHER CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH
WILL LIKELY LEAD TOWARD THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
IN THE MEANTIME...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS. WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD
REMAINS SUNDAY WHEN A THERMAL RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHRA/TS OVER NE WY AND FAR
WESTERN SD SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN NIGHT...MAINLY HIGH BASED
ACTIVITY. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING COOLER...BUT STILL SEASONAL TEMPS MONDAY.
CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE WILL RE-SURGE TUE-WED /POSSIBLY INTO
THU/...WITH VERY WARM CONDS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THEN. NW PAC UPPER
TROUGH WILL BIAS EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH COOLER WEATHER
LOOKING MORE LIKELY WITH POTENTIAL INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH ISOLD AREAS OF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE
IN SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS DROPPING TO 10% OR
BELOW. SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK MARGINAL FOR SATURDAY
ALTHOUGH STILL IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...POOR RH
RECOVERY IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL GUSTY SW WINDS.
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH LOOK MORE LIKELY SUNDAY...WITH RED FLAG
CONDS ALSO POSSIBLE THEN. HENCE...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...JC





000
FXUS63 KUNR 282120
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
320 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
NEB...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS BRINGING SMOKE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE PACIFIC NW WILDFIRES. HAZY SUNSHINE IS NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S...SOME 70S OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
WINDS ARE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN
SD...WITH VARIABLE WINDS OVER CENTRAL SD.

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
BLACK HILLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL
DRIFT EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING VERY
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY. SMOKE WILL
STILL PUSH OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. LOWS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S IN
THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY WARM CONDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...GROWING INDICATIONS FOR PHASING OF THE
NW PAC UPPER TROUGH WITH A STRONG NORTHER CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH
WILL LIKELY LEAD TOWARD THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
IN THE MEANTIME...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS. WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD
REMAINS SUNDAY WHEN A THERMAL RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHRA/TS OVER NE WY AND FAR
WESTERN SD SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN NIGHT...MAINLY HIGH BASED
ACTIVITY. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING COOLER...BUT STILL SEASONAL TEMPS MONDAY.
CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE WILL RE-SURGE TUE-WED /POSSIBLY INTO
THU/...WITH VERY WARM CONDS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THEN. NW PAC UPPER
TROUGH WILL BIAS EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH COOLER WEATHER
LOOKING MORE LIKELY WITH POTENTIAL INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH ISOLD AREAS OF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE
IN SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS DROPPING TO 10% OR
BELOW. SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK MARGINAL FOR SATURDAY
ALTHOUGH STILL IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...POOR RH
RECOVERY IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL GUSTY SW WINDS.
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH LOOK MORE LIKELY SUNDAY...WITH RED FLAG
CONDS ALSO POSSIBLE THEN. HENCE...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 281727
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1127 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
NEB...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS BRINGING SMOKE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE PACIFIC NW WILDFIRES. TOWARD CENTRAL SD...LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG ARE FINALLY DISSIPATING...WITH CLEARING SKIES BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WINDS ARE WESTERLY OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD...WITH
VARIABLE WINDS OVER CENTRAL SD.

HAVE UPDATED TO ADD SMOKE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED AT TIMES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE BLACK HILLS...ESPECIALLY THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS...AS AREA MAY BECOME UNSTABLE
ENOUGH DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...THE SMOKE MAY END UP KEEPING
TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL TODAY...KEEPING THE
HILLS CAPPED AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CWA YESTERDAY IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. LINGERING WRAP AROUND PRECIP IS AFFECTING FAR SCNTRL SD
ATTM...HOWEVER PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE CWA WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ONLY EXCEPTION IS
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE BLKHLS TODAY. HRRR
AND 4KM NAM SUGGEST ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL MAINLY BE
ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN BLKHLS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S EXPECTED
TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION SAT WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING SWRLY. WARMER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NE
WY/WRN SD SAT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS
THE PLAINS...AND 80S OVER THE BLKHLS. SW WINDS GENERALLY AT 10-15
MPH ARE EXPECTED...BUT AN INCREASE IN SRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT
NIGHT AS THE LLJ DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LONG WAVE TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THRU THE PERIOD...WITH PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING THROUGH
THE NRN PLAINS. A LEAD SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT NEWD SUN AFTN/EVE AND
MAY PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A FEW TSTMS IN OUR WRN ZONES.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR
REGION NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN OCCASIONAL CHANCE FOR A
FEW TSTMS AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID
WEEK...BUT BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST SOME COOLER AIR WILL BACK
INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AREAS OF FOG IN IFR CONDS WILL TREND TO VFR THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL SD. ISOLATED -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH
ISOLD AREAS OF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE IN SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP TO 15% OR BELOW.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TO 10 TO 15 MPH.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF HIGHER WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 281727
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1127 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
NEB...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS BRINGING SMOKE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE PACIFIC NW WILDFIRES. TOWARD CENTRAL SD...LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG ARE FINALLY DISSIPATING...WITH CLEARING SKIES BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WINDS ARE WESTERLY OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD...WITH
VARIABLE WINDS OVER CENTRAL SD.

HAVE UPDATED TO ADD SMOKE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED AT TIMES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE BLACK HILLS...ESPECIALLY THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS...AS AREA MAY BECOME UNSTABLE
ENOUGH DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...THE SMOKE MAY END UP KEEPING
TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL TODAY...KEEPING THE
HILLS CAPPED AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CWA YESTERDAY IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. LINGERING WRAP AROUND PRECIP IS AFFECTING FAR SCNTRL SD
ATTM...HOWEVER PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE CWA WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ONLY EXCEPTION IS
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE BLKHLS TODAY. HRRR
AND 4KM NAM SUGGEST ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL MAINLY BE
ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN BLKHLS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S EXPECTED
TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION SAT WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING SWRLY. WARMER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NE
WY/WRN SD SAT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS
THE PLAINS...AND 80S OVER THE BLKHLS. SW WINDS GENERALLY AT 10-15
MPH ARE EXPECTED...BUT AN INCREASE IN SRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT
NIGHT AS THE LLJ DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LONG WAVE TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THRU THE PERIOD...WITH PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING THROUGH
THE NRN PLAINS. A LEAD SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT NEWD SUN AFTN/EVE AND
MAY PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A FEW TSTMS IN OUR WRN ZONES.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR
REGION NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN OCCASIONAL CHANCE FOR A
FEW TSTMS AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID
WEEK...BUT BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST SOME COOLER AIR WILL BACK
INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AREAS OF FOG IN IFR CONDS WILL TREND TO VFR THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL SD. ISOLATED -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH
ISOLD AREAS OF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE IN SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP TO 15% OR BELOW.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TO 10 TO 15 MPH.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF HIGHER WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...13





000
FXUS63 KUNR 281727
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1127 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
NEB...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS BRINGING SMOKE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE PACIFIC NW WILDFIRES. TOWARD CENTRAL SD...LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG ARE FINALLY DISSIPATING...WITH CLEARING SKIES BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WINDS ARE WESTERLY OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD...WITH
VARIABLE WINDS OVER CENTRAL SD.

HAVE UPDATED TO ADD SMOKE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED AT TIMES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE BLACK HILLS...ESPECIALLY THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS...AS AREA MAY BECOME UNSTABLE
ENOUGH DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...THE SMOKE MAY END UP KEEPING
TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL TODAY...KEEPING THE
HILLS CAPPED AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CWA YESTERDAY IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. LINGERING WRAP AROUND PRECIP IS AFFECTING FAR SCNTRL SD
ATTM...HOWEVER PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE CWA WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ONLY EXCEPTION IS
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE BLKHLS TODAY. HRRR
AND 4KM NAM SUGGEST ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL MAINLY BE
ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN BLKHLS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S EXPECTED
TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION SAT WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING SWRLY. WARMER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NE
WY/WRN SD SAT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS
THE PLAINS...AND 80S OVER THE BLKHLS. SW WINDS GENERALLY AT 10-15
MPH ARE EXPECTED...BUT AN INCREASE IN SRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT
NIGHT AS THE LLJ DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LONG WAVE TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THRU THE PERIOD...WITH PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING THROUGH
THE NRN PLAINS. A LEAD SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT NEWD SUN AFTN/EVE AND
MAY PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A FEW TSTMS IN OUR WRN ZONES.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR
REGION NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN OCCASIONAL CHANCE FOR A
FEW TSTMS AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID
WEEK...BUT BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST SOME COOLER AIR WILL BACK
INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AREAS OF FOG IN IFR CONDS WILL TREND TO VFR THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL SD. ISOLATED -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH
ISOLD AREAS OF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE IN SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP TO 15% OR BELOW.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TO 10 TO 15 MPH.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF HIGHER WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...13





000
FXUS63 KUNR 281727
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1127 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
NEB...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS BRINGING SMOKE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE PACIFIC NW WILDFIRES. TOWARD CENTRAL SD...LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG ARE FINALLY DISSIPATING...WITH CLEARING SKIES BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WINDS ARE WESTERLY OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD...WITH
VARIABLE WINDS OVER CENTRAL SD.

HAVE UPDATED TO ADD SMOKE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED AT TIMES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE BLACK HILLS...ESPECIALLY THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS...AS AREA MAY BECOME UNSTABLE
ENOUGH DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...THE SMOKE MAY END UP KEEPING
TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL TODAY...KEEPING THE
HILLS CAPPED AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CWA YESTERDAY IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. LINGERING WRAP AROUND PRECIP IS AFFECTING FAR SCNTRL SD
ATTM...HOWEVER PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE CWA WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ONLY EXCEPTION IS
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE BLKHLS TODAY. HRRR
AND 4KM NAM SUGGEST ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL MAINLY BE
ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN BLKHLS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S EXPECTED
TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION SAT WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING SWRLY. WARMER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NE
WY/WRN SD SAT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS
THE PLAINS...AND 80S OVER THE BLKHLS. SW WINDS GENERALLY AT 10-15
MPH ARE EXPECTED...BUT AN INCREASE IN SRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT
NIGHT AS THE LLJ DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LONG WAVE TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THRU THE PERIOD...WITH PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING THROUGH
THE NRN PLAINS. A LEAD SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT NEWD SUN AFTN/EVE AND
MAY PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A FEW TSTMS IN OUR WRN ZONES.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR
REGION NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN OCCASIONAL CHANCE FOR A
FEW TSTMS AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID
WEEK...BUT BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST SOME COOLER AIR WILL BACK
INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AREAS OF FOG IN IFR CONDS WILL TREND TO VFR THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL SD. ISOLATED -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH
ISOLD AREAS OF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE IN SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP TO 15% OR BELOW.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TO 10 TO 15 MPH.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF HIGHER WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 281658
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1058 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
NEB...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS BRINGING SMOKE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE PACIFIC NW WILDFIRES. TOWARD CENTRAL SD...LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG ARE FINALLY DISSIPATING...WITH CLEARING SKIES BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WINDS ARE WESTERLY OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD...WITH
VARIABLE WINDS OVER CENTRAL SD.

HAVE UPDATED TO ADD SMOKE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED AT TIMES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE BLACK HILLS...ESPECIALLY THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS...AS AREA MAY BECOME UNSTABLE
ENOUGH DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...THE SMOKE MAY END UP KEEPING
TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL TODAY...KEEPING THE
HILLS CAPPED AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CWA YESTERDAY IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. LINGERING WRAP AROUND PRECIP IS AFFECTING FAR SCNTRL SD
ATTM...HOWEVER PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE CWA WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ONLY EXCEPTION IS
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE BLKHLS TODAY. HRRR
AND 4KM NAM SUGGEST ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL MAINLY BE
ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN BLKHLS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S EXPECTED
TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION SAT WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING SWRLY. WARMER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NE
WY/WRN SD SAT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS
THE PLAINS...AND 80S OVER THE BLKHLS. SW WINDS GENERALLY AT 10-15
MPH ARE EXPECTED...BUT AN INCREASE IN SRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT
NIGHT AS THE LLJ DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LONG WAVE TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THRU THE PERIOD...WITH PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING THROUGH
THE NRN PLAINS. A LEAD SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT NEWD SUN AFTN/EVE AND
MAY PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A FEW TSTMS IN OUR WRN ZONES.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR
REGION NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN OCCASIONAL CHANCE FOR A
FEW TSTMS AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID
WEEK...BUT BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST SOME COOLER AIR WILL BACK
INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CNTRL SD THROUGH EARLY
MRNG...WITH IFR VSBYS. ISOLATED -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP TO 15% OR BELOW.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TO 10 TO 15 MPH.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF HIGHER WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 281658
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1058 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
NEB...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS BRINGING SMOKE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE PACIFIC NW WILDFIRES. TOWARD CENTRAL SD...LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG ARE FINALLY DISSIPATING...WITH CLEARING SKIES BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WINDS ARE WESTERLY OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD...WITH
VARIABLE WINDS OVER CENTRAL SD.

HAVE UPDATED TO ADD SMOKE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED AT TIMES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE BLACK HILLS...ESPECIALLY THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS...AS AREA MAY BECOME UNSTABLE
ENOUGH DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...THE SMOKE MAY END UP KEEPING
TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL TODAY...KEEPING THE
HILLS CAPPED AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CWA YESTERDAY IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. LINGERING WRAP AROUND PRECIP IS AFFECTING FAR SCNTRL SD
ATTM...HOWEVER PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE CWA WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ONLY EXCEPTION IS
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE BLKHLS TODAY. HRRR
AND 4KM NAM SUGGEST ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL MAINLY BE
ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN BLKHLS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S EXPECTED
TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION SAT WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING SWRLY. WARMER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NE
WY/WRN SD SAT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS
THE PLAINS...AND 80S OVER THE BLKHLS. SW WINDS GENERALLY AT 10-15
MPH ARE EXPECTED...BUT AN INCREASE IN SRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT
NIGHT AS THE LLJ DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LONG WAVE TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THRU THE PERIOD...WITH PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING THROUGH
THE NRN PLAINS. A LEAD SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT NEWD SUN AFTN/EVE AND
MAY PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A FEW TSTMS IN OUR WRN ZONES.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR
REGION NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN OCCASIONAL CHANCE FOR A
FEW TSTMS AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID
WEEK...BUT BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST SOME COOLER AIR WILL BACK
INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CNTRL SD THROUGH EARLY
MRNG...WITH IFR VSBYS. ISOLATED -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP TO 15% OR BELOW.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TO 10 TO 15 MPH.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF HIGHER WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...13





000
FXUS63 KUNR 280949
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
349 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CWA YESTERDAY IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. LINGERING WRAP AROUND PRECIP IS AFFECTING FAR SCNTRL SD
ATTM...HOWEVER PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE CWA WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ONLY EXCEPTION IS
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE BLKHLS TODAY. HRRR
AND 4KM NAM SUGGEST ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL MAINLY BE
ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN BLKHLS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S EXPECTED
TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION SAT WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING SWRLY. WARMER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NE
WY/WRN SD SAT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS
THE PLAINS...AND 80S OVER THE BLKHLS. SW WINDS GENERALLY AT 10-15
MPH ARE EXPECTED...BUT AN INCREASE IN SRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT
NIGHT AS THE LLJ DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LONG WAVE TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THRU THE PERIOD...WITH PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING THROUGH
THE NRN PLAINS. A LEAD SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT NEWD SUN AFTN/EVE AND
MAY PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A FEW TSTMS IN OUR WRN ZONES.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR
REGION NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN OCCASIONAL CHANCE FOR A
FEW TSTMS AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID
WEEK...BUT BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST SOME COOLER AIR WILL BACK
INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CNTRL SD THROUGH EARLY
MRNG...WITH IFR VSBYS. ISOLATED -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP TO 15% OR BELOW.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TO 10 TO 15 MPH.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF HIGHER WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 280949
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
349 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CWA YESTERDAY IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. LINGERING WRAP AROUND PRECIP IS AFFECTING FAR SCNTRL SD
ATTM...HOWEVER PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE CWA WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ONLY EXCEPTION IS
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE BLKHLS TODAY. HRRR
AND 4KM NAM SUGGEST ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL MAINLY BE
ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN BLKHLS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S EXPECTED
TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION SAT WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING SWRLY. WARMER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NE
WY/WRN SD SAT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS
THE PLAINS...AND 80S OVER THE BLKHLS. SW WINDS GENERALLY AT 10-15
MPH ARE EXPECTED...BUT AN INCREASE IN SRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT
NIGHT AS THE LLJ DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LONG WAVE TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THRU THE PERIOD...WITH PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING THROUGH
THE NRN PLAINS. A LEAD SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT NEWD SUN AFTN/EVE AND
MAY PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A FEW TSTMS IN OUR WRN ZONES.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR
REGION NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN OCCASIONAL CHANCE FOR A
FEW TSTMS AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID
WEEK...BUT BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST SOME COOLER AIR WILL BACK
INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CNTRL SD THROUGH EARLY
MRNG...WITH IFR VSBYS. ISOLATED -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP TO 15% OR BELOW.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TO 10 TO 15 MPH.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF HIGHER WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...13





000
FXUS63 KUNR 280949
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
349 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CWA YESTERDAY IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. LINGERING WRAP AROUND PRECIP IS AFFECTING FAR SCNTRL SD
ATTM...HOWEVER PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE CWA WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ONLY EXCEPTION IS
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE BLKHLS TODAY. HRRR
AND 4KM NAM SUGGEST ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL MAINLY BE
ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN BLKHLS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S EXPECTED
TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION SAT WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING SWRLY. WARMER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NE
WY/WRN SD SAT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS
THE PLAINS...AND 80S OVER THE BLKHLS. SW WINDS GENERALLY AT 10-15
MPH ARE EXPECTED...BUT AN INCREASE IN SRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT
NIGHT AS THE LLJ DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LONG WAVE TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THRU THE PERIOD...WITH PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING THROUGH
THE NRN PLAINS. A LEAD SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT NEWD SUN AFTN/EVE AND
MAY PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A FEW TSTMS IN OUR WRN ZONES.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR
REGION NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN OCCASIONAL CHANCE FOR A
FEW TSTMS AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID
WEEK...BUT BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST SOME COOLER AIR WILL BACK
INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CNTRL SD THROUGH EARLY
MRNG...WITH IFR VSBYS. ISOLATED -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP TO 15% OR BELOW.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TO 10 TO 15 MPH.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF HIGHER WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...13





000
FXUS63 KUNR 280949
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
349 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CWA YESTERDAY IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. LINGERING WRAP AROUND PRECIP IS AFFECTING FAR SCNTRL SD
ATTM...HOWEVER PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE CWA WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ONLY EXCEPTION IS
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE BLKHLS TODAY. HRRR
AND 4KM NAM SUGGEST ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL MAINLY BE
ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN BLKHLS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S EXPECTED
TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION SAT WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING SWRLY. WARMER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NE
WY/WRN SD SAT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS
THE PLAINS...AND 80S OVER THE BLKHLS. SW WINDS GENERALLY AT 10-15
MPH ARE EXPECTED...BUT AN INCREASE IN SRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT
NIGHT AS THE LLJ DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LONG WAVE TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THRU THE PERIOD...WITH PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING THROUGH
THE NRN PLAINS. A LEAD SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT NEWD SUN AFTN/EVE AND
MAY PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A FEW TSTMS IN OUR WRN ZONES.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR
REGION NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN OCCASIONAL CHANCE FOR A
FEW TSTMS AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID
WEEK...BUT BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST SOME COOLER AIR WILL BACK
INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CNTRL SD THROUGH EARLY
MRNG...WITH IFR VSBYS. ISOLATED -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP TO 15% OR BELOW.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TO 10 TO 15 MPH.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF HIGHER WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 280538
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1138 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA.
AREA OF WEAK PRECIPITATION IS SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL SD WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WITH INVERTED TROF
THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM ARE GENERALLY IN
THE 70S...WITH SOME 80S WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD...LINGERING LONGEST
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S TO
MID 60S.

FRIDAY...THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LINGERING
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD HELP SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...WITH A SURFACE TROF PUSHING INTO EASTERN WY. A VERY
WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE MINIMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES AS EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE SW FLOW TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 435 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL END OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD SHORTLY. LOCAL
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AREAS
FOG/SMOKE WITH LOCAL MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL THEN BECOME VFR OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING. ISOLATED -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BLACK HILLS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE MAY BE AN INCREASED FIRE RISK ON
SATURDAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...MLS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 280538
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1138 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA.
AREA OF WEAK PRECIPITATION IS SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL SD WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WITH INVERTED TROF
THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM ARE GENERALLY IN
THE 70S...WITH SOME 80S WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD...LINGERING LONGEST
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S TO
MID 60S.

FRIDAY...THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LINGERING
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD HELP SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...WITH A SURFACE TROF PUSHING INTO EASTERN WY. A VERY
WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE MINIMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES AS EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE SW FLOW TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 435 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL END OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD SHORTLY. LOCAL
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AREAS
FOG/SMOKE WITH LOCAL MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL THEN BECOME VFR OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING. ISOLATED -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BLACK HILLS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE MAY BE AN INCREASED FIRE RISK ON
SATURDAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...MLS





000
FXUS63 KUNR 280058
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
658 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

EARLY EVENING 1KM VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF SMOKE HEADING
OUR WAY...SO HAVE PUT INTO FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 435 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT INTO
NORTHWEST SD/NORTHEAST WY...AND ANOTHER EXTENDING FROM LOW IN
NORTH CENTRAL KS INTO EASTERN SD. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST SD...WHICH IS ASSISTING NEW CONVECTION UNDER
IT. LATEST RAP/HRRR SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL BUBBLE AND SINK
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST UNDER 850-300MB MEAN WINDS OF 10-15KTS. NEED TO
UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS...COMING SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA.
AREA OF WEAK PRECIPITATION IS SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL SD WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WITH INVERTED TROF
THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM ARE GENERALLY IN
THE 70S...WITH SOME 80S WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD...LINGERING LONGEST
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S TO
MID 60S.

FRIDAY...THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LINGERING
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD HELP SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...WITH A SURFACE TROF PUSHING INTO EASTERN WY. A VERY
WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE MINIMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES AS EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE SW FLOW TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 435 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL SLOWLY WANE THIS EVENING AND EXIT THE
CWA OVERNIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. GIVEN NARROW T/TD
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND RAIN OVER PAST 24 HOURS...PATCHY FOG AND
LOCAL MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE MAY BE AN INCREASED FIRE RISK ON
SATURDAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...MLS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 280058
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
658 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

EARLY EVENING 1KM VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF SMOKE HEADING
OUR WAY...SO HAVE PUT INTO FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 435 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT INTO
NORTHWEST SD/NORTHEAST WY...AND ANOTHER EXTENDING FROM LOW IN
NORTH CENTRAL KS INTO EASTERN SD. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST SD...WHICH IS ASSISTING NEW CONVECTION UNDER
IT. LATEST RAP/HRRR SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL BUBBLE AND SINK
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST UNDER 850-300MB MEAN WINDS OF 10-15KTS. NEED TO
UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS...COMING SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA.
AREA OF WEAK PRECIPITATION IS SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL SD WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WITH INVERTED TROF
THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM ARE GENERALLY IN
THE 70S...WITH SOME 80S WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD...LINGERING LONGEST
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S TO
MID 60S.

FRIDAY...THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LINGERING
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD HELP SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...WITH A SURFACE TROF PUSHING INTO EASTERN WY. A VERY
WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE MINIMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES AS EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE SW FLOW TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 435 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL SLOWLY WANE THIS EVENING AND EXIT THE
CWA OVERNIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. GIVEN NARROW T/TD
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND RAIN OVER PAST 24 HOURS...PATCHY FOG AND
LOCAL MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE MAY BE AN INCREASED FIRE RISK ON
SATURDAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...MLS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 280058
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
658 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

EARLY EVENING 1KM VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF SMOKE HEADING
OUR WAY...SO HAVE PUT INTO FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 435 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT INTO
NORTHWEST SD/NORTHEAST WY...AND ANOTHER EXTENDING FROM LOW IN
NORTH CENTRAL KS INTO EASTERN SD. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST SD...WHICH IS ASSISTING NEW CONVECTION UNDER
IT. LATEST RAP/HRRR SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL BUBBLE AND SINK
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST UNDER 850-300MB MEAN WINDS OF 10-15KTS. NEED TO
UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS...COMING SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA.
AREA OF WEAK PRECIPITATION IS SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL SD WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WITH INVERTED TROF
THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM ARE GENERALLY IN
THE 70S...WITH SOME 80S WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD...LINGERING LONGEST
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S TO
MID 60S.

FRIDAY...THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LINGERING
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD HELP SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...WITH A SURFACE TROF PUSHING INTO EASTERN WY. A VERY
WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE MINIMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES AS EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE SW FLOW TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 435 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL SLOWLY WANE THIS EVENING AND EXIT THE
CWA OVERNIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. GIVEN NARROW T/TD
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND RAIN OVER PAST 24 HOURS...PATCHY FOG AND
LOCAL MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE MAY BE AN INCREASED FIRE RISK ON
SATURDAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...MLS





000
FXUS63 KUNR 280058
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
658 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

EARLY EVENING 1KM VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF SMOKE HEADING
OUR WAY...SO HAVE PUT INTO FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 435 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT INTO
NORTHWEST SD/NORTHEAST WY...AND ANOTHER EXTENDING FROM LOW IN
NORTH CENTRAL KS INTO EASTERN SD. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST SD...WHICH IS ASSISTING NEW CONVECTION UNDER
IT. LATEST RAP/HRRR SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL BUBBLE AND SINK
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST UNDER 850-300MB MEAN WINDS OF 10-15KTS. NEED TO
UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS...COMING SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA.
AREA OF WEAK PRECIPITATION IS SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL SD WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WITH INVERTED TROF
THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM ARE GENERALLY IN
THE 70S...WITH SOME 80S WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD...LINGERING LONGEST
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S TO
MID 60S.

FRIDAY...THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LINGERING
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD HELP SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...WITH A SURFACE TROF PUSHING INTO EASTERN WY. A VERY
WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE MINIMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES AS EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE SW FLOW TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 435 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL SLOWLY WANE THIS EVENING AND EXIT THE
CWA OVERNIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. GIVEN NARROW T/TD
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND RAIN OVER PAST 24 HOURS...PATCHY FOG AND
LOCAL MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE MAY BE AN INCREASED FIRE RISK ON
SATURDAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...MLS





000
FXUS63 KUNR 272240
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
440 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 435 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT INTO
NORTHWEST SD/NORTHEAST WY...AND ANOTHER EXTENDING FROM LOW IN
NORTH CENTRAL KS INTO EASTERN SD. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST SD...WHICH IS ASSISTING NEW CONVECTION UNDER
IT. LATEST RAP/HRRR SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL BUBBLE AND SINK
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST UNDER 850-300MB MEAN WINDS OF 10-15KTS. NEED TO
UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS...COMING SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA.
AREA OF WEAK PRECIPITATION IS SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL SD WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WITH INVERTED TROF
THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM ARE GENERALLY IN
THE 70S...WITH SOME 80S WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD...LINGERING LONGEST
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S TO
MID 60S.

FRIDAY...THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LINGERING
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD HELP SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...WITH A SURFACE TROF PUSHING INTO EASTERN WY. A VERY
WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE MINIMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES AS EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE SW FLOW TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 435 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL SLOWLY WANE THIS EVENING AND EXIT THE
CWA OVERNIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. GIVEN NARROW T/TD
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND RAIN OVER PAST 24 HOURS...PATCHY FOG AND
LOCAL MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE MAY BE AN INCREASED FIRE RISK ON
SATURDAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...MLS





000
FXUS63 KUNR 272240
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
440 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 435 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT INTO
NORTHWEST SD/NORTHEAST WY...AND ANOTHER EXTENDING FROM LOW IN
NORTH CENTRAL KS INTO EASTERN SD. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST SD...WHICH IS ASSISTING NEW CONVECTION UNDER
IT. LATEST RAP/HRRR SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL BUBBLE AND SINK
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST UNDER 850-300MB MEAN WINDS OF 10-15KTS. NEED TO
UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS...COMING SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA.
AREA OF WEAK PRECIPITATION IS SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL SD WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WITH INVERTED TROF
THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM ARE GENERALLY IN
THE 70S...WITH SOME 80S WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD...LINGERING LONGEST
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S TO
MID 60S.

FRIDAY...THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LINGERING
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD HELP SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...WITH A SURFACE TROF PUSHING INTO EASTERN WY. A VERY
WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE MINIMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES AS EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE SW FLOW TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 435 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL SLOWLY WANE THIS EVENING AND EXIT THE
CWA OVERNIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. GIVEN NARROW T/TD
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND RAIN OVER PAST 24 HOURS...PATCHY FOG AND
LOCAL MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE MAY BE AN INCREASED FIRE RISK ON
SATURDAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...MLS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 272240
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
440 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 435 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT INTO
NORTHWEST SD/NORTHEAST WY...AND ANOTHER EXTENDING FROM LOW IN
NORTH CENTRAL KS INTO EASTERN SD. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST SD...WHICH IS ASSISTING NEW CONVECTION UNDER
IT. LATEST RAP/HRRR SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL BUBBLE AND SINK
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST UNDER 850-300MB MEAN WINDS OF 10-15KTS. NEED TO
UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS...COMING SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA.
AREA OF WEAK PRECIPITATION IS SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL SD WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WITH INVERTED TROF
THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM ARE GENERALLY IN
THE 70S...WITH SOME 80S WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD...LINGERING LONGEST
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S TO
MID 60S.

FRIDAY...THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LINGERING
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD HELP SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...WITH A SURFACE TROF PUSHING INTO EASTERN WY. A VERY
WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE MINIMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES AS EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE SW FLOW TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 435 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL SLOWLY WANE THIS EVENING AND EXIT THE
CWA OVERNIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. GIVEN NARROW T/TD
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND RAIN OVER PAST 24 HOURS...PATCHY FOG AND
LOCAL MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE MAY BE AN INCREASED FIRE RISK ON
SATURDAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...MLS





000
FXUS63 KUNR 272240
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
440 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 435 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT INTO
NORTHWEST SD/NORTHEAST WY...AND ANOTHER EXTENDING FROM LOW IN
NORTH CENTRAL KS INTO EASTERN SD. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST SD...WHICH IS ASSISTING NEW CONVECTION UNDER
IT. LATEST RAP/HRRR SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL BUBBLE AND SINK
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST UNDER 850-300MB MEAN WINDS OF 10-15KTS. NEED TO
UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS...COMING SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA.
AREA OF WEAK PRECIPITATION IS SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL SD WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WITH INVERTED TROF
THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM ARE GENERALLY IN
THE 70S...WITH SOME 80S WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD...LINGERING LONGEST
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S TO
MID 60S.

FRIDAY...THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LINGERING
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD HELP SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...WITH A SURFACE TROF PUSHING INTO EASTERN WY. A VERY
WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE MINIMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES AS EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE SW FLOW TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 435 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL SLOWLY WANE THIS EVENING AND EXIT THE
CWA OVERNIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. GIVEN NARROW T/TD
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND RAIN OVER PAST 24 HOURS...PATCHY FOG AND
LOCAL MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE MAY BE AN INCREASED FIRE RISK ON
SATURDAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...MLS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 272032
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
232 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA.
AREA OF WEAK PRECIPITATION IS SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL SD WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WITH INVERTED TROF
THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM ARE GENERALLY IN
THE 70S...WITH SOME 80S WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD...LINGERING LONGEST
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S TO
MID 60S.

FRIDAY...THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LINGERING
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD HELP SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...WITH A SURFACE TROF PUSHING INTO EASTERN WY. A VERY
WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE MINIMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES AS EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE SW FLOW TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO END AND SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA FROM 06Z THROUGH 15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE MAY BE AN INCREASED FIRE RISK ON
SATURDAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...MLS
FIRE WEATHER...MLS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 272032
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
232 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA.
AREA OF WEAK PRECIPITATION IS SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL SD WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WITH INVERTED TROF
THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM ARE GENERALLY IN
THE 70S...WITH SOME 80S WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD...LINGERING LONGEST
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S TO
MID 60S.

FRIDAY...THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LINGERING
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD HELP SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...WITH A SURFACE TROF PUSHING INTO EASTERN WY. A VERY
WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE MINIMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES AS EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE SW FLOW TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO END AND SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA FROM 06Z THROUGH 15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE MAY BE AN INCREASED FIRE RISK ON
SATURDAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...MLS
FIRE WEATHER...MLS





000
FXUS63 KUNR 272032
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
232 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA.
AREA OF WEAK PRECIPITATION IS SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL SD WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WITH INVERTED TROF
THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM ARE GENERALLY IN
THE 70S...WITH SOME 80S WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD...LINGERING LONGEST
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S TO
MID 60S.

FRIDAY...THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LINGERING
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD HELP SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...WITH A SURFACE TROF PUSHING INTO EASTERN WY. A VERY
WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE MINIMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES AS EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE SW FLOW TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO END AND SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA FROM 06Z THROUGH 15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE MAY BE AN INCREASED FIRE RISK ON
SATURDAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...MLS
FIRE WEATHER...MLS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 272032
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
232 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA.
AREA OF WEAK PRECIPITATION IS SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL SD WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WITH INVERTED TROF
THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM ARE GENERALLY IN
THE 70S...WITH SOME 80S WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD...LINGERING LONGEST
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S TO
MID 60S.

FRIDAY...THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LINGERING
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD HELP SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...WITH A SURFACE TROF PUSHING INTO EASTERN WY. A VERY
WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE MINIMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES AS EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE SW FLOW TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO END AND SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA FROM 06Z THROUGH 15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE MAY BE AN INCREASED FIRE RISK ON
SATURDAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...MLS
FIRE WEATHER...MLS





000
FXUS63 KUNR 271835
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1235 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ITS SLOW EASTERLY TREK ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY STRETCHES
FROM NEAR FAITH AND PHILIP...BACK WEST TO THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS AREA AND WEST TO SUNDANCE AND MOORCROFT. ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS STRETCHES FROM THE BADLANDS AREA SOUTHWEST INTO FALL RIVER
COUNTY. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...AND
WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING BY THIS
AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S IN AREAS WHERE THE SUN IS MORE
PREVALENT. UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH PRECIP
WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER
WY...WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX GRADUALLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SD. GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST
SD/NORTHERN NE. WARM AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW
ARE KEEPING SOUTH CENTRAL SD IN THE 70S EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
COOLER AIR STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WESTERN CWA.

INITIAL CONVECTION WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING. UPPER WAVE WITH
STRONG FORCING WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION...AND 700 MB LOW WILL CLOSE
OFF OVER WESTERN SD...WITH MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE
CWA. SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AS THE LOW
TRANSITIONS EASTWARD...BECOMING MORE CONSOLIDATED AS LOW DEEPENS.
WITH SOME MINIMAL CAPE AROUND...COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS WELL.
LOWERED HIGHS TODAY...BUT WITH INCOMING COOLER AIR AND CLOUDY/RAINY
CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPS THAN THE PREDICTED MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE
POSSIBLE.

UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVES
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH EASTWARD...LINGERING LONGEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERMAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER THE REGION FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD
HELP SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE HILLS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NRN PLAINS
ON SATURDAY...WITH SFC TROF PUSHING INTO ERN WY. VERY WARM DAY IN
STORE WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S MOST PLAINS LOCATIONS AND
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PCPN. UPPER RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION
ON SUNDAY WITH PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COULD
BE A FEW TSTMS FROM TIME TO TIME AS UPPER IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE
SW FLOW TRAVERSE THE NRN PLAINS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

WDSPRD STRATIFORM RAIN EXPECTED TO EXIT WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT LOWER TERRAIN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...MLS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 271835
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1235 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ITS SLOW EASTERLY TREK ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY STRETCHES
FROM NEAR FAITH AND PHILIP...BACK WEST TO THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS AREA AND WEST TO SUNDANCE AND MOORCROFT. ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS STRETCHES FROM THE BADLANDS AREA SOUTHWEST INTO FALL RIVER
COUNTY. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...AND
WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING BY THIS
AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S IN AREAS WHERE THE SUN IS MORE
PREVALENT. UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH PRECIP
WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER
WY...WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX GRADUALLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SD. GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST
SD/NORTHERN NE. WARM AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW
ARE KEEPING SOUTH CENTRAL SD IN THE 70S EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
COOLER AIR STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WESTERN CWA.

INITIAL CONVECTION WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING. UPPER WAVE WITH
STRONG FORCING WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION...AND 700 MB LOW WILL CLOSE
OFF OVER WESTERN SD...WITH MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE
CWA. SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AS THE LOW
TRANSITIONS EASTWARD...BECOMING MORE CONSOLIDATED AS LOW DEEPENS.
WITH SOME MINIMAL CAPE AROUND...COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS WELL.
LOWERED HIGHS TODAY...BUT WITH INCOMING COOLER AIR AND CLOUDY/RAINY
CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPS THAN THE PREDICTED MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE
POSSIBLE.

UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVES
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH EASTWARD...LINGERING LONGEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERMAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER THE REGION FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD
HELP SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE HILLS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NRN PLAINS
ON SATURDAY...WITH SFC TROF PUSHING INTO ERN WY. VERY WARM DAY IN
STORE WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S MOST PLAINS LOCATIONS AND
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PCPN. UPPER RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION
ON SUNDAY WITH PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COULD
BE A FEW TSTMS FROM TIME TO TIME AS UPPER IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE
SW FLOW TRAVERSE THE NRN PLAINS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

WDSPRD STRATIFORM RAIN EXPECTED TO EXIT WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT LOWER TERRAIN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...MLS





000
FXUS63 KUNR 271835
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1235 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ITS SLOW EASTERLY TREK ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY STRETCHES
FROM NEAR FAITH AND PHILIP...BACK WEST TO THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS AREA AND WEST TO SUNDANCE AND MOORCROFT. ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS STRETCHES FROM THE BADLANDS AREA SOUTHWEST INTO FALL RIVER
COUNTY. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...AND
WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING BY THIS
AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S IN AREAS WHERE THE SUN IS MORE
PREVALENT. UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH PRECIP
WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER
WY...WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX GRADUALLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SD. GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST
SD/NORTHERN NE. WARM AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW
ARE KEEPING SOUTH CENTRAL SD IN THE 70S EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
COOLER AIR STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WESTERN CWA.

INITIAL CONVECTION WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING. UPPER WAVE WITH
STRONG FORCING WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION...AND 700 MB LOW WILL CLOSE
OFF OVER WESTERN SD...WITH MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE
CWA. SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AS THE LOW
TRANSITIONS EASTWARD...BECOMING MORE CONSOLIDATED AS LOW DEEPENS.
WITH SOME MINIMAL CAPE AROUND...COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS WELL.
LOWERED HIGHS TODAY...BUT WITH INCOMING COOLER AIR AND CLOUDY/RAINY
CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPS THAN THE PREDICTED MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE
POSSIBLE.

UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVES
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH EASTWARD...LINGERING LONGEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERMAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER THE REGION FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD
HELP SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE HILLS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NRN PLAINS
ON SATURDAY...WITH SFC TROF PUSHING INTO ERN WY. VERY WARM DAY IN
STORE WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S MOST PLAINS LOCATIONS AND
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PCPN. UPPER RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION
ON SUNDAY WITH PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COULD
BE A FEW TSTMS FROM TIME TO TIME AS UPPER IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE
SW FLOW TRAVERSE THE NRN PLAINS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

WDSPRD STRATIFORM RAIN EXPECTED TO EXIT WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT LOWER TERRAIN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...MLS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 271835
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1235 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ITS SLOW EASTERLY TREK ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY STRETCHES
FROM NEAR FAITH AND PHILIP...BACK WEST TO THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS AREA AND WEST TO SUNDANCE AND MOORCROFT. ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS STRETCHES FROM THE BADLANDS AREA SOUTHWEST INTO FALL RIVER
COUNTY. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...AND
WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING BY THIS
AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S IN AREAS WHERE THE SUN IS MORE
PREVALENT. UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH PRECIP
WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER
WY...WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX GRADUALLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SD. GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST
SD/NORTHERN NE. WARM AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW
ARE KEEPING SOUTH CENTRAL SD IN THE 70S EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
COOLER AIR STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WESTERN CWA.

INITIAL CONVECTION WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING. UPPER WAVE WITH
STRONG FORCING WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION...AND 700 MB LOW WILL CLOSE
OFF OVER WESTERN SD...WITH MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE
CWA. SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AS THE LOW
TRANSITIONS EASTWARD...BECOMING MORE CONSOLIDATED AS LOW DEEPENS.
WITH SOME MINIMAL CAPE AROUND...COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS WELL.
LOWERED HIGHS TODAY...BUT WITH INCOMING COOLER AIR AND CLOUDY/RAINY
CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPS THAN THE PREDICTED MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE
POSSIBLE.

UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVES
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH EASTWARD...LINGERING LONGEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERMAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER THE REGION FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD
HELP SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE HILLS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NRN PLAINS
ON SATURDAY...WITH SFC TROF PUSHING INTO ERN WY. VERY WARM DAY IN
STORE WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S MOST PLAINS LOCATIONS AND
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PCPN. UPPER RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION
ON SUNDAY WITH PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COULD
BE A FEW TSTMS FROM TIME TO TIME AS UPPER IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE
SW FLOW TRAVERSE THE NRN PLAINS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

WDSPRD STRATIFORM RAIN EXPECTED TO EXIT WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT LOWER TERRAIN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...MLS





000
FXUS63 KUNR 271618
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1018 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ITS SLOW EASTERLY TREK ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY STRETCHES
FROM NEAR FAITH AND PHILIP...BACK WEST TO THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS AREA AND WEST TO SUNDANCE AND MOORCROFT. ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS STRETCHES FROM THE BADLANDS AREA SOUTHWEST INTO FALL RIVER
COUNTY. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...AND
WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING BY THIS
AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S IN AREAS WHERE THE SUN IS MORE
PREVALENT. UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH PRECIP
WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER
WY...WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX GRADUALLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SD. GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST
SD/NORTHERN NE. WARM AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW
ARE KEEPING SOUTH CENTRAL SD IN THE 70S EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
COOLER AIR STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WESTERN CWA.

INITIAL CONVECTION WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING. UPPER WAVE WITH
STRONG FORCING WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION...AND 700 MB LOW WILL CLOSE
OFF OVER WESTERN SD...WITH MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE
CWA. SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AS THE LOW
TRANSITIONS EASTWARD...BECOMING MORE CONSOLIDATED AS LOW DEEPENS.
WITH SOME MINIMAL CAPE AROUND...COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS WELL.
LOWERED HIGHS TODAY...BUT WITH INCOMING COOLER AIR AND CLOUDY/RAINY
CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPS THAN THE PREDICTED MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE
POSSIBLE.

UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVES
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH EASTWARD...LINGERING LONGEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERMAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER THE REGION FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD
HELP SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE HILLS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NRN PLAINS
ON SATURDAY...WITH SFC TROF PUSHING INTO ERN WY. VERY WARM DAY IN
STORE WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S MOST PLAINS LOCATIONS AND
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PCPN. UPPER RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION
ON SUNDAY WITH PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COULD
BE A FEW TSTMS FROM TIME TO TIME AS UPPER IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE
SW FLOW TRAVERSE THE NRN PLAINS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

NUMEROUS CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL SD WILL SHIFT EAST OF
THE REGION EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH  IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PCPN.
WDSPRD STRATIFORM RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MRNG ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT LOWER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTN.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 271618
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1018 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ITS SLOW EASTERLY TREK ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY STRETCHES
FROM NEAR FAITH AND PHILIP...BACK WEST TO THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS AREA AND WEST TO SUNDANCE AND MOORCROFT. ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS STRETCHES FROM THE BADLANDS AREA SOUTHWEST INTO FALL RIVER
COUNTY. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...AND
WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING BY THIS
AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S IN AREAS WHERE THE SUN IS MORE
PREVALENT. UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH PRECIP
WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER
WY...WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX GRADUALLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SD. GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST
SD/NORTHERN NE. WARM AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW
ARE KEEPING SOUTH CENTRAL SD IN THE 70S EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
COOLER AIR STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WESTERN CWA.

INITIAL CONVECTION WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING. UPPER WAVE WITH
STRONG FORCING WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION...AND 700 MB LOW WILL CLOSE
OFF OVER WESTERN SD...WITH MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE
CWA. SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AS THE LOW
TRANSITIONS EASTWARD...BECOMING MORE CONSOLIDATED AS LOW DEEPENS.
WITH SOME MINIMAL CAPE AROUND...COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS WELL.
LOWERED HIGHS TODAY...BUT WITH INCOMING COOLER AIR AND CLOUDY/RAINY
CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPS THAN THE PREDICTED MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE
POSSIBLE.

UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVES
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH EASTWARD...LINGERING LONGEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERMAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER THE REGION FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD
HELP SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE HILLS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NRN PLAINS
ON SATURDAY...WITH SFC TROF PUSHING INTO ERN WY. VERY WARM DAY IN
STORE WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S MOST PLAINS LOCATIONS AND
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PCPN. UPPER RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION
ON SUNDAY WITH PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COULD
BE A FEW TSTMS FROM TIME TO TIME AS UPPER IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE
SW FLOW TRAVERSE THE NRN PLAINS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

NUMEROUS CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL SD WILL SHIFT EAST OF
THE REGION EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH  IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PCPN.
WDSPRD STRATIFORM RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MRNG ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT LOWER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTN.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 271618
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1018 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ITS SLOW EASTERLY TREK ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY STRETCHES
FROM NEAR FAITH AND PHILIP...BACK WEST TO THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS AREA AND WEST TO SUNDANCE AND MOORCROFT. ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS STRETCHES FROM THE BADLANDS AREA SOUTHWEST INTO FALL RIVER
COUNTY. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...AND
WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING BY THIS
AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S IN AREAS WHERE THE SUN IS MORE
PREVALENT. UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH PRECIP
WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER
WY...WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX GRADUALLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SD. GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST
SD/NORTHERN NE. WARM AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW
ARE KEEPING SOUTH CENTRAL SD IN THE 70S EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
COOLER AIR STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WESTERN CWA.

INITIAL CONVECTION WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING. UPPER WAVE WITH
STRONG FORCING WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION...AND 700 MB LOW WILL CLOSE
OFF OVER WESTERN SD...WITH MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE
CWA. SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AS THE LOW
TRANSITIONS EASTWARD...BECOMING MORE CONSOLIDATED AS LOW DEEPENS.
WITH SOME MINIMAL CAPE AROUND...COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS WELL.
LOWERED HIGHS TODAY...BUT WITH INCOMING COOLER AIR AND CLOUDY/RAINY
CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPS THAN THE PREDICTED MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE
POSSIBLE.

UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVES
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH EASTWARD...LINGERING LONGEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERMAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER THE REGION FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD
HELP SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE HILLS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NRN PLAINS
ON SATURDAY...WITH SFC TROF PUSHING INTO ERN WY. VERY WARM DAY IN
STORE WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S MOST PLAINS LOCATIONS AND
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PCPN. UPPER RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION
ON SUNDAY WITH PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COULD
BE A FEW TSTMS FROM TIME TO TIME AS UPPER IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE
SW FLOW TRAVERSE THE NRN PLAINS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

NUMEROUS CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL SD WILL SHIFT EAST OF
THE REGION EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH  IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PCPN.
WDSPRD STRATIFORM RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MRNG ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT LOWER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTN.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 271618
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1018 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ITS SLOW EASTERLY TREK ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY STRETCHES
FROM NEAR FAITH AND PHILIP...BACK WEST TO THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS AREA AND WEST TO SUNDANCE AND MOORCROFT. ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS STRETCHES FROM THE BADLANDS AREA SOUTHWEST INTO FALL RIVER
COUNTY. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...AND
WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING BY THIS
AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S IN AREAS WHERE THE SUN IS MORE
PREVALENT. UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH PRECIP
WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER
WY...WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX GRADUALLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SD. GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST
SD/NORTHERN NE. WARM AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW
ARE KEEPING SOUTH CENTRAL SD IN THE 70S EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
COOLER AIR STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WESTERN CWA.

INITIAL CONVECTION WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING. UPPER WAVE WITH
STRONG FORCING WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION...AND 700 MB LOW WILL CLOSE
OFF OVER WESTERN SD...WITH MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE
CWA. SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AS THE LOW
TRANSITIONS EASTWARD...BECOMING MORE CONSOLIDATED AS LOW DEEPENS.
WITH SOME MINIMAL CAPE AROUND...COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS WELL.
LOWERED HIGHS TODAY...BUT WITH INCOMING COOLER AIR AND CLOUDY/RAINY
CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPS THAN THE PREDICTED MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE
POSSIBLE.

UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVES
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH EASTWARD...LINGERING LONGEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERMAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER THE REGION FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD
HELP SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE HILLS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NRN PLAINS
ON SATURDAY...WITH SFC TROF PUSHING INTO ERN WY. VERY WARM DAY IN
STORE WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S MOST PLAINS LOCATIONS AND
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PCPN. UPPER RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION
ON SUNDAY WITH PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COULD
BE A FEW TSTMS FROM TIME TO TIME AS UPPER IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE
SW FLOW TRAVERSE THE NRN PLAINS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

NUMEROUS CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL SD WILL SHIFT EAST OF
THE REGION EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH  IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PCPN.
WDSPRD STRATIFORM RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MRNG ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT LOWER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTN.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 270802
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
202 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER
WY...WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX GRADUALLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SD. GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST
SD/NORTHERN NE. WARM AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW
ARE KEEPING SOUTH CENTRAL SD IN THE 70S EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
COOLER AIR STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WESTERN CWA.

INITIAL CONVECTION WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING. UPPER WAVE WITH
STRONG FORCING WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION...AND 700 MB LOW WILL CLOSE
OFF OVER WESTERN SD...WITH MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE
CWA. SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AS THE LOW
TRANSITIONS EASTWARD...BECOMING MORE CONSOLIDATED AS LOW DEEPENS.
WITH SOME MINIMAL CAPE AROUND...COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS WELL.
LOWERED HIGHS TODAY...BUT WITH INCOMING COOLER AIR AND CLOUDY/RAINY
CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPS THAN THE PREDICTED MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE
POSSIBLE.

UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVES
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH EASTWARD...LINGERING LONGEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERMAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER THE REGION FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD
HELP SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE HILLS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NRN PLAINS
ON SATURDAY...WITH SFC TROF PUSHING INTO ERN WY. VERY WARM DAY IN
STORE WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S MOST PLAINS LOCATIONS AND
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PCPN. UPPER RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION
ON SUNDAY WITH PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COULD
BE A FEW TSTMS FROM TIME TO TIME AS UPPER IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE
SW FLOW TRAVERSE THE NRN PLAINS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

NUMEROUS CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL SD WILL SHIFT EAST OF
THE REGION EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH  IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PCPN.
WDSPRD STRATIFORM RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MRNG ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT LOWER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 270802
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
202 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER
WY...WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX GRADUALLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SD. GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST
SD/NORTHERN NE. WARM AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW
ARE KEEPING SOUTH CENTRAL SD IN THE 70S EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
COOLER AIR STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WESTERN CWA.

INITIAL CONVECTION WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING. UPPER WAVE WITH
STRONG FORCING WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION...AND 700 MB LOW WILL CLOSE
OFF OVER WESTERN SD...WITH MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE
CWA. SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AS THE LOW
TRANSITIONS EASTWARD...BECOMING MORE CONSOLIDATED AS LOW DEEPENS.
WITH SOME MINIMAL CAPE AROUND...COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS WELL.
LOWERED HIGHS TODAY...BUT WITH INCOMING COOLER AIR AND CLOUDY/RAINY
CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPS THAN THE PREDICTED MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE
POSSIBLE.

UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVES
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH EASTWARD...LINGERING LONGEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERMAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER THE REGION FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD
HELP SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE HILLS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NRN PLAINS
ON SATURDAY...WITH SFC TROF PUSHING INTO ERN WY. VERY WARM DAY IN
STORE WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S MOST PLAINS LOCATIONS AND
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PCPN. UPPER RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION
ON SUNDAY WITH PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COULD
BE A FEW TSTMS FROM TIME TO TIME AS UPPER IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE
SW FLOW TRAVERSE THE NRN PLAINS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

NUMEROUS CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL SD WILL SHIFT EAST OF
THE REGION EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH  IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PCPN.
WDSPRD STRATIFORM RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MRNG ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT LOWER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 270802
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
202 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER
WY...WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX GRADUALLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SD. GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST
SD/NORTHERN NE. WARM AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW
ARE KEEPING SOUTH CENTRAL SD IN THE 70S EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
COOLER AIR STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WESTERN CWA.

INITIAL CONVECTION WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING. UPPER WAVE WITH
STRONG FORCING WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION...AND 700 MB LOW WILL CLOSE
OFF OVER WESTERN SD...WITH MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE
CWA. SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AS THE LOW
TRANSITIONS EASTWARD...BECOMING MORE CONSOLIDATED AS LOW DEEPENS.
WITH SOME MINIMAL CAPE AROUND...COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS WELL.
LOWERED HIGHS TODAY...BUT WITH INCOMING COOLER AIR AND CLOUDY/RAINY
CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPS THAN THE PREDICTED MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE
POSSIBLE.

UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVES
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH EASTWARD...LINGERING LONGEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERMAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER THE REGION FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD
HELP SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE HILLS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NRN PLAINS
ON SATURDAY...WITH SFC TROF PUSHING INTO ERN WY. VERY WARM DAY IN
STORE WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S MOST PLAINS LOCATIONS AND
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PCPN. UPPER RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION
ON SUNDAY WITH PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COULD
BE A FEW TSTMS FROM TIME TO TIME AS UPPER IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE
SW FLOW TRAVERSE THE NRN PLAINS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

NUMEROUS CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL SD WILL SHIFT EAST OF
THE REGION EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH  IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PCPN.
WDSPRD STRATIFORM RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MRNG ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT LOWER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 270802
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
202 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER
WY...WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX GRADUALLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SD. GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST
SD/NORTHERN NE. WARM AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW
ARE KEEPING SOUTH CENTRAL SD IN THE 70S EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
COOLER AIR STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WESTERN CWA.

INITIAL CONVECTION WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING. UPPER WAVE WITH
STRONG FORCING WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION...AND 700 MB LOW WILL CLOSE
OFF OVER WESTERN SD...WITH MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE
CWA. SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AS THE LOW
TRANSITIONS EASTWARD...BECOMING MORE CONSOLIDATED AS LOW DEEPENS.
WITH SOME MINIMAL CAPE AROUND...COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS WELL.
LOWERED HIGHS TODAY...BUT WITH INCOMING COOLER AIR AND CLOUDY/RAINY
CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPS THAN THE PREDICTED MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE
POSSIBLE.

UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVES
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH EASTWARD...LINGERING LONGEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERMAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER THE REGION FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD
HELP SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE HILLS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NRN PLAINS
ON SATURDAY...WITH SFC TROF PUSHING INTO ERN WY. VERY WARM DAY IN
STORE WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S MOST PLAINS LOCATIONS AND
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PCPN. UPPER RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION
ON SUNDAY WITH PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COULD
BE A FEW TSTMS FROM TIME TO TIME AS UPPER IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE
SW FLOW TRAVERSE THE NRN PLAINS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

NUMEROUS CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL SD WILL SHIFT EAST OF
THE REGION EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH  IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PCPN.
WDSPRD STRATIFORM RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MRNG ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT LOWER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 270500
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1100 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WITH NEXT UPPER WAVE LIFTING THROUGH UTAH. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE TOPPING THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TROF/BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM SOUTHEAST
MONTANA...THROUGH FAR SW SOUTH DAKOTA...INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
WEST OF THE TROF...WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10
TO 15 MPH. TO THE EAST OF THE TROF...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL.
TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM RANGE FROM AROUND 80 IN FAITH...TO THE UPPER
90S IN PINE RIDGE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH
WYOMING THIS EVENING AND MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AS
SURFACE LOW IN WYOMING SHIFTS EAST INTO SW SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH
INCREASING FORCING AND CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT...EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR...MARGINALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD...IN THE 60S.

THURSDAY...700MB LOW CLOSES OFF EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER
WESTERN SD WITH COOLER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. SHOWERS AND
STORMS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY...IN THE MID 70S TO MID
80S. LOW DEEPENS THURSDAY EVENING AS IT TRANSITIONS
EASTWARD...RESULTING IN A SHARP CUTOFF OF PRECIP WITH MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CWA DRYING OUT AND PRECIP CONTINUING THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL PERSIST OVER THE PAC NW WITH AN
ANCHORED CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT WARM
CONDS WITH PERIODIC SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE
REGION. LACK OF SUFFICIENT DEEP MOISTURE AND LACK OF DEFINITIVE
WAVE TIMING AT THIS TIME FRAME SUPPORTS MAINLY DRY CONDS ACROSS
THE FA. DID RETAIN POPS OVER NE WY AND THE BH SUN-MON GIVEN A
CONTINUED SIGNAL FOR LOW POPS. OTHERWISE...SW FLOW OFF THE ROCKIES
WILL SUPPORT LEE SIDE TOUGHING WITH VERY WARM TEMPS. H85 TEMPS
PROGGED AT NEAR 30C WILL SUPPORT 90S AT MANY LOCATIONS...ESP WHEN
ANY MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION AND SHIFT THE LEE
TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION ALLOWING LL SW FLOW. OTHERWISE...NO SIG
SYSTEMS EXPECTED IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

NUMEROUS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN
SD...GENERALLY JUST NORTH OF I-90...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVIER PCPN. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT WITH
ISOLD-SCT HIGH BASED CONVECTION. WDSPRD STRATIFORM RAIN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MRNG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT LOWER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY FROM
WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 270500
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1100 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WITH NEXT UPPER WAVE LIFTING THROUGH UTAH. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE TOPPING THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TROF/BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM SOUTHEAST
MONTANA...THROUGH FAR SW SOUTH DAKOTA...INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
WEST OF THE TROF...WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10
TO 15 MPH. TO THE EAST OF THE TROF...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL.
TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM RANGE FROM AROUND 80 IN FAITH...TO THE UPPER
90S IN PINE RIDGE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH
WYOMING THIS EVENING AND MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AS
SURFACE LOW IN WYOMING SHIFTS EAST INTO SW SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH
INCREASING FORCING AND CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT...EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR...MARGINALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD...IN THE 60S.

THURSDAY...700MB LOW CLOSES OFF EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER
WESTERN SD WITH COOLER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. SHOWERS AND
STORMS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY...IN THE MID 70S TO MID
80S. LOW DEEPENS THURSDAY EVENING AS IT TRANSITIONS
EASTWARD...RESULTING IN A SHARP CUTOFF OF PRECIP WITH MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CWA DRYING OUT AND PRECIP CONTINUING THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL PERSIST OVER THE PAC NW WITH AN
ANCHORED CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT WARM
CONDS WITH PERIODIC SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE
REGION. LACK OF SUFFICIENT DEEP MOISTURE AND LACK OF DEFINITIVE
WAVE TIMING AT THIS TIME FRAME SUPPORTS MAINLY DRY CONDS ACROSS
THE FA. DID RETAIN POPS OVER NE WY AND THE BH SUN-MON GIVEN A
CONTINUED SIGNAL FOR LOW POPS. OTHERWISE...SW FLOW OFF THE ROCKIES
WILL SUPPORT LEE SIDE TOUGHING WITH VERY WARM TEMPS. H85 TEMPS
PROGGED AT NEAR 30C WILL SUPPORT 90S AT MANY LOCATIONS...ESP WHEN
ANY MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION AND SHIFT THE LEE
TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION ALLOWING LL SW FLOW. OTHERWISE...NO SIG
SYSTEMS EXPECTED IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

NUMEROUS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN
SD...GENERALLY JUST NORTH OF I-90...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVIER PCPN. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT WITH
ISOLD-SCT HIGH BASED CONVECTION. WDSPRD STRATIFORM RAIN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MRNG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT LOWER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY FROM
WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 270500
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1100 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WITH NEXT UPPER WAVE LIFTING THROUGH UTAH. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE TOPPING THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TROF/BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM SOUTHEAST
MONTANA...THROUGH FAR SW SOUTH DAKOTA...INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
WEST OF THE TROF...WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10
TO 15 MPH. TO THE EAST OF THE TROF...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL.
TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM RANGE FROM AROUND 80 IN FAITH...TO THE UPPER
90S IN PINE RIDGE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH
WYOMING THIS EVENING AND MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AS
SURFACE LOW IN WYOMING SHIFTS EAST INTO SW SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH
INCREASING FORCING AND CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT...EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR...MARGINALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD...IN THE 60S.

THURSDAY...700MB LOW CLOSES OFF EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER
WESTERN SD WITH COOLER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. SHOWERS AND
STORMS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY...IN THE MID 70S TO MID
80S. LOW DEEPENS THURSDAY EVENING AS IT TRANSITIONS
EASTWARD...RESULTING IN A SHARP CUTOFF OF PRECIP WITH MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CWA DRYING OUT AND PRECIP CONTINUING THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL PERSIST OVER THE PAC NW WITH AN
ANCHORED CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT WARM
CONDS WITH PERIODIC SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE
REGION. LACK OF SUFFICIENT DEEP MOISTURE AND LACK OF DEFINITIVE
WAVE TIMING AT THIS TIME FRAME SUPPORTS MAINLY DRY CONDS ACROSS
THE FA. DID RETAIN POPS OVER NE WY AND THE BH SUN-MON GIVEN A
CONTINUED SIGNAL FOR LOW POPS. OTHERWISE...SW FLOW OFF THE ROCKIES
WILL SUPPORT LEE SIDE TOUGHING WITH VERY WARM TEMPS. H85 TEMPS
PROGGED AT NEAR 30C WILL SUPPORT 90S AT MANY LOCATIONS...ESP WHEN
ANY MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION AND SHIFT THE LEE
TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION ALLOWING LL SW FLOW. OTHERWISE...NO SIG
SYSTEMS EXPECTED IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

NUMEROUS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN
SD...GENERALLY JUST NORTH OF I-90...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVIER PCPN. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT WITH
ISOLD-SCT HIGH BASED CONVECTION. WDSPRD STRATIFORM RAIN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MRNG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT LOWER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY FROM
WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 270500
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1100 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WITH NEXT UPPER WAVE LIFTING THROUGH UTAH. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE TOPPING THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TROF/BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM SOUTHEAST
MONTANA...THROUGH FAR SW SOUTH DAKOTA...INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
WEST OF THE TROF...WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10
TO 15 MPH. TO THE EAST OF THE TROF...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL.
TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM RANGE FROM AROUND 80 IN FAITH...TO THE UPPER
90S IN PINE RIDGE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH
WYOMING THIS EVENING AND MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AS
SURFACE LOW IN WYOMING SHIFTS EAST INTO SW SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH
INCREASING FORCING AND CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT...EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR...MARGINALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD...IN THE 60S.

THURSDAY...700MB LOW CLOSES OFF EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER
WESTERN SD WITH COOLER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. SHOWERS AND
STORMS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY...IN THE MID 70S TO MID
80S. LOW DEEPENS THURSDAY EVENING AS IT TRANSITIONS
EASTWARD...RESULTING IN A SHARP CUTOFF OF PRECIP WITH MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CWA DRYING OUT AND PRECIP CONTINUING THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL PERSIST OVER THE PAC NW WITH AN
ANCHORED CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT WARM
CONDS WITH PERIODIC SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE
REGION. LACK OF SUFFICIENT DEEP MOISTURE AND LACK OF DEFINITIVE
WAVE TIMING AT THIS TIME FRAME SUPPORTS MAINLY DRY CONDS ACROSS
THE FA. DID RETAIN POPS OVER NE WY AND THE BH SUN-MON GIVEN A
CONTINUED SIGNAL FOR LOW POPS. OTHERWISE...SW FLOW OFF THE ROCKIES
WILL SUPPORT LEE SIDE TOUGHING WITH VERY WARM TEMPS. H85 TEMPS
PROGGED AT NEAR 30C WILL SUPPORT 90S AT MANY LOCATIONS...ESP WHEN
ANY MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION AND SHIFT THE LEE
TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION ALLOWING LL SW FLOW. OTHERWISE...NO SIG
SYSTEMS EXPECTED IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

NUMEROUS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN
SD...GENERALLY JUST NORTH OF I-90...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVIER PCPN. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT WITH
ISOLD-SCT HIGH BASED CONVECTION. WDSPRD STRATIFORM RAIN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MRNG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT LOWER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY FROM
WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 262252
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
452 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WITH NEXT UPPER WAVE LIFTING THROUGH UTAH. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE TOPPING THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TROF/BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM SOUTHEAST
MONTANA...THROUGH FAR SW SOUTH DAKOTA...INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
WEST OF THE TROF...WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10
TO 15 MPH. TO THE EAST OF THE TROF...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL.
TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM RANGE FROM AROUND 80 IN FAITH...TO THE UPPER
90S IN PINE RIDGE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH
WYOMING THIS EVENING AND MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AS
SURFACE LOW IN WYOMING SHIFTS EAST INTO SW SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH
INCREASING FORCING AND CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT...EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR...MARGINALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD...IN THE 60S.

THURSDAY...700MB LOW CLOSES OFF EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER
WESTERN SD WITH COOLER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. SHOWERS AND
STORMS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY...IN THE MID 70S TO MID
80S. LOW DEEPENS THURSDAY EVENING AS IT TRANSITIONS
EASTWARD...RESULTING IN A SHARP CUTOFF OF PRECIP WITH MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CWA DRYING OUT AND PRECIP CONTINUING THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL PERSIST OVER THE PAC NW WITH AN
ANCHORED CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT WARM
CONDS WITH PERIODIC SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE
REGION. LACK OF SUFFICIENT DEEP MOISTURE AND LACK OF DEFINITIVE
WAVE TIMING AT THIS TIME FRAME SUPPORTS MAINLY DRY CONDS ACROSS
THE FA. DID RETAIN POPS OVER NE WY AND THE BH SUN-MON GIVEN A
CONTINUED SIGNAL FOR LOW POPS. OTHERWISE...SW FLOW OFF THE ROCKIES
WILL SUPPORT LEE SIDE TOUGHING WITH VERY WARM TEMPS. H85 TEMPS
PROGGED AT NEAR 30C WILL SUPPORT 90S AT MANY LOCATIONS...ESP WHEN
ANY MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION AND SHIFT THE LEE
TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION ALLOWING LL SW FLOW. OTHERWISE...NO SIG
SYSTEMS EXPECTED IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 450 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TNGT FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BECOMING SCT
FROM 06Z-18Z THURS. SPOTTY MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...SOME LOCAL MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE ERN BLKHLS AND SWRN SD ON THURS MRNG.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BUNKERS





000
FXUS63 KUNR 262252
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
452 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WITH NEXT UPPER WAVE LIFTING THROUGH UTAH. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE TOPPING THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TROF/BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM SOUTHEAST
MONTANA...THROUGH FAR SW SOUTH DAKOTA...INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
WEST OF THE TROF...WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10
TO 15 MPH. TO THE EAST OF THE TROF...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL.
TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM RANGE FROM AROUND 80 IN FAITH...TO THE UPPER
90S IN PINE RIDGE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH
WYOMING THIS EVENING AND MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AS
SURFACE LOW IN WYOMING SHIFTS EAST INTO SW SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH
INCREASING FORCING AND CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT...EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR...MARGINALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD...IN THE 60S.

THURSDAY...700MB LOW CLOSES OFF EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER
WESTERN SD WITH COOLER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. SHOWERS AND
STORMS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY...IN THE MID 70S TO MID
80S. LOW DEEPENS THURSDAY EVENING AS IT TRANSITIONS
EASTWARD...RESULTING IN A SHARP CUTOFF OF PRECIP WITH MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CWA DRYING OUT AND PRECIP CONTINUING THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL PERSIST OVER THE PAC NW WITH AN
ANCHORED CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT WARM
CONDS WITH PERIODIC SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE
REGION. LACK OF SUFFICIENT DEEP MOISTURE AND LACK OF DEFINITIVE
WAVE TIMING AT THIS TIME FRAME SUPPORTS MAINLY DRY CONDS ACROSS
THE FA. DID RETAIN POPS OVER NE WY AND THE BH SUN-MON GIVEN A
CONTINUED SIGNAL FOR LOW POPS. OTHERWISE...SW FLOW OFF THE ROCKIES
WILL SUPPORT LEE SIDE TOUGHING WITH VERY WARM TEMPS. H85 TEMPS
PROGGED AT NEAR 30C WILL SUPPORT 90S AT MANY LOCATIONS...ESP WHEN
ANY MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION AND SHIFT THE LEE
TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION ALLOWING LL SW FLOW. OTHERWISE...NO SIG
SYSTEMS EXPECTED IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 450 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TNGT FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BECOMING SCT
FROM 06Z-18Z THURS. SPOTTY MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...SOME LOCAL MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE ERN BLKHLS AND SWRN SD ON THURS MRNG.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BUNKERS




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