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000
FXUS63 KUNR 071715
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1015 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

ADDED PARTS OF FALL RIVER COUNTY TO HIGH WIND WARNING AS LATEST
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REACH THAT CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE DAY. HAVE ALREADY HAD MULTIPLE HURRICANE
FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...THE HIGHEST SO
FAR BEING WASTA AT 78MPH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
GUSTS OVER 80MPH BEFORE THE DAY ENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHERN PLAINS REGION IS UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
INITIAL UPPER WAVE NOW PUSHING INTO MN...AND NEXT WAVE OVER MT/ND.
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MN IS CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SOME BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KTS.
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY...AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S.

NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING THE
NEXT AND MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF VERY STRONG WINDS. COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...WITH BEST PRESSURE RISES AND
ISALLOBARIC WINDS AROUND MIDDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS OF 40-50 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 65-75 MPH. CONSIDERED THE POSSIBILITY OF EXPANDING
WARNINGS TO THE REST OF NORTHEASTERN WY...AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL OF 50KT+ WINDS MIXING DOWN. HOWEVER NAM/GFS/ECM IN
AGREEMENT THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AS THEY ARE OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST 25-30KT WINDS FOR THAT AREA. WILL
LEAVE HEADLINES AS THEY ARE...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG
GUSTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING...STILL REMAINING
BREEZY OVERNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE CROSSES THE AREA. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY...WITH
CONTINUED FAST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. SOMEWHAT TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY ON MONDAY. UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE WRN CONUS. BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO
OUR ERN HALF OF ZONES TUESDAY AS UPPER WAVE DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. COULD BE SOME -SN WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS. WARMER AIR WILL
THEN PUSH BACK INTO THE ENTIRE CWFA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER BACKDOOR CDFNT TO
SLIDE INTO OUR ERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER SMALL
OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT PCPN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WX TYPE SNOW BUT
THERMAL PROFILES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING PCPN SO WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS. WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS PRIMARILY IN THE NRN BLKHLS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THIS MRNG. THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE STRONG NW
WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH 50-60KT GUSTS
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN SD. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-024>026-028>032-041-043-044-046-047-049-
     072>074.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ027-042.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ057-071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MCKEMY
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 070908
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
208 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHERN PLAINS REGION IS UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
INITIAL UPPER WAVE NOW PUSHING INTO MN...AND NEXT WAVE OVER MT/ND.
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MN IS CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SOME BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KTS.
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY...AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S.

NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING THE
NEXT AND MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF VERY STRONG WINDS. COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...WITH BEST PRESSURE RISES AND
ISALLOBARIC WINDS AROUND MIDDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS OF 40-50 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 65-75 MPH. CONSIDERED THE POSSIBILITY OF EXPANDING
WARNINGS TO THE REST OF NORTHEASTERN WY...AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL OF 50KT+ WINDS MIXING DOWN. HOWEVER NAM/GFS/ECM IN
AGREEMENT THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AS THEY ARE OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST 25-30KT WINDS FOR THAT AREA. WILL
LEAVE HEADLINES AS THEY ARE...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG
GUSTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING...STILL REMAINING
BREEZY OVERNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE CROSSES THE AREA. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY...WITH
CONTINUED FAST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. SOMEWHAT TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY ON MONDAY. UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE WRN CONUS. BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO
OUR ERN HALF OF ZONES TUESDAY AS UPPER WAVE DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. COULD BE SOME -SN WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS. WARMER AIR WILL
THEN PUSH BACK INTO THE ENTIRE CWFA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER BACKDOOR CDFNT TO
SLIDE INTO OUR ERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER SMALL
OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT PCPN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WX TYPE SNOW BUT
THERMAL PROFILES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING PCPN SO WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS. WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS PRIMARILY IN THE NRN BLKHLS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THIS MRNG. THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE STRONG NW
WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH 50-60KT GUSTS
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN SD. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-024>026-028>032-043-044-046-047-049-
     072>074.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ027-041-042.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 070908
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
208 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHERN PLAINS REGION IS UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
INITIAL UPPER WAVE NOW PUSHING INTO MN...AND NEXT WAVE OVER MT/ND.
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MN IS CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SOME BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KTS.
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY...AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S.

NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING THE
NEXT AND MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF VERY STRONG WINDS. COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...WITH BEST PRESSURE RISES AND
ISALLOBARIC WINDS AROUND MIDDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS OF 40-50 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 65-75 MPH. CONSIDERED THE POSSIBILITY OF EXPANDING
WARNINGS TO THE REST OF NORTHEASTERN WY...AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL OF 50KT+ WINDS MIXING DOWN. HOWEVER NAM/GFS/ECM IN
AGREEMENT THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AS THEY ARE OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST 25-30KT WINDS FOR THAT AREA. WILL
LEAVE HEADLINES AS THEY ARE...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG
GUSTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING...STILL REMAINING
BREEZY OVERNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE CROSSES THE AREA. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY...WITH
CONTINUED FAST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. SOMEWHAT TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY ON MONDAY. UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE WRN CONUS. BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO
OUR ERN HALF OF ZONES TUESDAY AS UPPER WAVE DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. COULD BE SOME -SN WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS. WARMER AIR WILL
THEN PUSH BACK INTO THE ENTIRE CWFA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER BACKDOOR CDFNT TO
SLIDE INTO OUR ERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER SMALL
OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT PCPN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WX TYPE SNOW BUT
THERMAL PROFILES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING PCPN SO WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS. WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS PRIMARILY IN THE NRN BLKHLS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THIS MRNG. THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE STRONG NW
WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH 50-60KT GUSTS
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN SD. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-024>026-028>032-043-044-046-047-049-
     072>074.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ027-041-042.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 070908
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
208 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHERN PLAINS REGION IS UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
INITIAL UPPER WAVE NOW PUSHING INTO MN...AND NEXT WAVE OVER MT/ND.
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MN IS CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SOME BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KTS.
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY...AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S.

NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING THE
NEXT AND MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF VERY STRONG WINDS. COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...WITH BEST PRESSURE RISES AND
ISALLOBARIC WINDS AROUND MIDDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS OF 40-50 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 65-75 MPH. CONSIDERED THE POSSIBILITY OF EXPANDING
WARNINGS TO THE REST OF NORTHEASTERN WY...AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL OF 50KT+ WINDS MIXING DOWN. HOWEVER NAM/GFS/ECM IN
AGREEMENT THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AS THEY ARE OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST 25-30KT WINDS FOR THAT AREA. WILL
LEAVE HEADLINES AS THEY ARE...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG
GUSTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING...STILL REMAINING
BREEZY OVERNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE CROSSES THE AREA. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY...WITH
CONTINUED FAST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. SOMEWHAT TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY ON MONDAY. UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE WRN CONUS. BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO
OUR ERN HALF OF ZONES TUESDAY AS UPPER WAVE DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. COULD BE SOME -SN WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS. WARMER AIR WILL
THEN PUSH BACK INTO THE ENTIRE CWFA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER BACKDOOR CDFNT TO
SLIDE INTO OUR ERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER SMALL
OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT PCPN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WX TYPE SNOW BUT
THERMAL PROFILES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING PCPN SO WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS. WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS PRIMARILY IN THE NRN BLKHLS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THIS MRNG. THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE STRONG NW
WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH 50-60KT GUSTS
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN SD. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-024>026-028>032-043-044-046-047-049-
     072>074.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ027-041-042.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 070510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1010 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 722 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

00Z KUNR SOUNDING MIXED TO ABOUT 500MB SAVE FOR A MODEST FRONTAL
INVERSION AROUND 750MB. INITIAL ISALLOBARIC FORCING BEHIND COLD
FRONT QUITE VIGOROUS WITH MANY REPORTS OF HIGH WINDS. WATER VAPOUR
LOOP SHOWED WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE ZIPPING ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS WITH EXCELLENT SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BEHIND IT. SURFACE LOW
WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MB AT 02Z...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN TIGHT
GRADIENT OVER THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT PARTIAL DECOUPLING WILL
OCCUR REST OF THE NIGHT UNTIL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
AB/SK STIRS THINGS UP AGAIN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH WINDS LIKELY OVER
MOST OF WESTERN SD.

CURRENT HEADLINES IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT WILL TWEAK FORECAST FOR
LATEST WIND/CLOUD COVER TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VERY POTENT BUT COMPACT SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SFC COLD FRONT QUICKLY ADVECTING SE TOWARD
THE FA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME /TONIGHT INTO SUN EVENING/. INITIAL
ROUND OF PRESSURE RISES AND CAA WILL ENSUE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS. DIURNAL
BL COOLING WILL SUBDUE WINDS MOST PLACES OUTSIDE OF TERRAIN
ENHANCED AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SECONDARY BACKSIDE IMPULSE WILL
DIRECT RE-NEWED PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE REGION SUN
MORNING,...WITH DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING MIXING OF STRONGER
MOMENTUM TO THE SFC. BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST VERY STRONG WINDS WITH
MIXING POTENTIALS SUPPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH
GUSTS IN THE 70S/S MPH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE WINDS GUSTS
OVER 80 MPH IN FAR NW SD AND IN THE LEE OF THE BH GIVEN FLOW
ENHANCEMENT AROUND THE HILLS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
LATE SUNDAY MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. LEFT ALL HEADLINES AS
IS.

AS FOR PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...VERY DRY PROFILES PER RAOB
ANALYSIS CONFIRMS DISMAL QPF OUTPUT FROM MODELS. RETAIN A LOW
CHANCE MENTION IN THE HILLS WHERE UPSLOPE FORCING MAY SQUEEZE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN THE
SYSTEM COLD POOL MAY CLIP FAR EASTERN SCENTRAL SD SUN AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE STRONG WINDS FROM SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO DIE DOWN DURING THE
DAY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND RIDGE SET UP IN THE EAST AND
WEST CONUS...RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM UP CONSIDERABLY BY MID WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS NWP GUIDANCE FORECASTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO CLIP NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AROUND THIS SAME TIME...AN ARCTIC FRONT
WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AS THE LOWEST SEVERAL
THOUSAND FEET REMAIN SATURATED AND BELOW FREEZING...BUT THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE IS DRY. ECMWF SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT MORE
SATURATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND WOULD SUGGEST SNOW AS THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...BUT WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW/ICE IN THE COMING
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS FROM
20-35KTS. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS FROM
40-65KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR CIGS FROM K2WX TO KICR SUNDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ024-
     028-029-043-044-046-047-049.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR SDZ027-041-042.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-
     025-026-030>032-072>074.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ057.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MCKEMY
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 070228
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
728 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 722 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

00Z KUNR SOUNDING MIXED TO ABOUT 500MB SAVE FOR A MODEST FRONTAL
INVERSION AROUND 750MB. INITIAL ISALLOBARIC FORCING BEHIND COLD
FRONT QUITE VIGOROUS WITH MANY REPORTS OF HIGH WINDS. WATER VAPOUR
LOOP SHOWED WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE ZIPPING ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS WITH EXCELLENT SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BEHIND IT. SURFACE LOW
WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MB AT 02Z...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN TIGHT
GRADIENT OVER THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT PARTIAL DECOUPLING WILL
OCCUR REST OF THE NIGHT UNTIL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
AB/SK STIRS THINGS UP AGAIN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH WINDS LIKELY OVER
MOST OF WESTERN SD.

CURRENT HEADLINES IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT WILL TWEAK FORECAST FOR
LATEST WIND/CLOUD COVER TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VERY POTENT BUT COMPACT SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SFC COLD FRONT QUICKLY ADVECTING SE TOWARD
THE FA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME /TONIGHT INTO SUN EVENING/. INITIAL
ROUND OF PRESSURE RISES AND CAA WILL ENSUE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS. DIURNAL
BL COOLING WILL SUBDUE WINDS MOST PLACES OUTSIDE OF TERRAIN
ENHANCED AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SECONDARY BACKSIDE IMPULSE WILL
DIRECT RE-NEWED PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE REGION SUN
MORNING,...WITH DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING MIXING OF STRONGER
MOMENTUM TO THE SFC. BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST VERY STRONG WINDS WITH
MIXING POTENTIALS SUPPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH
GUSTS IN THE 70S/S MPH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE WINDS GUSTS
OVER 80 MPH IN FAR NW SD AND IN THE LEE OF THE BH GIVEN FLOW
ENHANCEMENT AROUND THE HILLS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
LATE SUNDAY MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. LEFT ALL HEADLINES AS
IS.

AS FOR PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...VERY DRY PROFILES PER RAOB
ANALYSIS CONFIRMS DISMAL QPF OUTPUT FROM MODELS. RETAIN A LOW
CHANCE MENTION IN THE HILLS WHERE UPSLOPE FORCING MAY SQUEEZE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN THE
SYSTEM COLD POOL MAY CLIP FAR EASTERN SCENTRAL SD SUN AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE STRONG WINDS FROM SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO DIE DOWN
DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY DRY AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND RIDGE SET UP IN THE EAST
AND WEST CONUS...RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM UP CONSIDERABLY BY MID WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS NWP GUIDANCE FORECASTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO CLIP NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AROUND THIS SAME TIME...AN ARCTIC FRONT
WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AS THE LOWEST SEVERAL
THOUSAND FEET REMAIN SATURATED AND BELOW FREEZING...BUT THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE IS DRY. ECMWF SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT MORE
SATURATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND WOULD SUGGEST SNOW AS THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...BUT WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW/ICE IN THE COMING
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 425 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SD EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS FROM 35-50KTS WITH ISALLOBARIC
SURGE/MIXING. WINDS WILL SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH 25-40G65KTS AT TIMES GIVEN GRADIENT/COLD AIR
ADVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING TO
     8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ024-028-029-043-044-046-
     047-049.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ027-041-042.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-
     025-026-030>032-072>074.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     WYZ057.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MCKEMY
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 070228
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
728 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 722 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

00Z KUNR SOUNDING MIXED TO ABOUT 500MB SAVE FOR A MODEST FRONTAL
INVERSION AROUND 750MB. INITIAL ISALLOBARIC FORCING BEHIND COLD
FRONT QUITE VIGOROUS WITH MANY REPORTS OF HIGH WINDS. WATER VAPOUR
LOOP SHOWED WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE ZIPPING ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS WITH EXCELLENT SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BEHIND IT. SURFACE LOW
WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MB AT 02Z...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN TIGHT
GRADIENT OVER THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT PARTIAL DECOUPLING WILL
OCCUR REST OF THE NIGHT UNTIL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
AB/SK STIRS THINGS UP AGAIN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH WINDS LIKELY OVER
MOST OF WESTERN SD.

CURRENT HEADLINES IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT WILL TWEAK FORECAST FOR
LATEST WIND/CLOUD COVER TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VERY POTENT BUT COMPACT SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SFC COLD FRONT QUICKLY ADVECTING SE TOWARD
THE FA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME /TONIGHT INTO SUN EVENING/. INITIAL
ROUND OF PRESSURE RISES AND CAA WILL ENSUE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS. DIURNAL
BL COOLING WILL SUBDUE WINDS MOST PLACES OUTSIDE OF TERRAIN
ENHANCED AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SECONDARY BACKSIDE IMPULSE WILL
DIRECT RE-NEWED PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE REGION SUN
MORNING,...WITH DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING MIXING OF STRONGER
MOMENTUM TO THE SFC. BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST VERY STRONG WINDS WITH
MIXING POTENTIALS SUPPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH
GUSTS IN THE 70S/S MPH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE WINDS GUSTS
OVER 80 MPH IN FAR NW SD AND IN THE LEE OF THE BH GIVEN FLOW
ENHANCEMENT AROUND THE HILLS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
LATE SUNDAY MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. LEFT ALL HEADLINES AS
IS.

AS FOR PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...VERY DRY PROFILES PER RAOB
ANALYSIS CONFIRMS DISMAL QPF OUTPUT FROM MODELS. RETAIN A LOW
CHANCE MENTION IN THE HILLS WHERE UPSLOPE FORCING MAY SQUEEZE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN THE
SYSTEM COLD POOL MAY CLIP FAR EASTERN SCENTRAL SD SUN AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE STRONG WINDS FROM SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO DIE DOWN
DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY DRY AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND RIDGE SET UP IN THE EAST
AND WEST CONUS...RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM UP CONSIDERABLY BY MID WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS NWP GUIDANCE FORECASTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO CLIP NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AROUND THIS SAME TIME...AN ARCTIC FRONT
WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AS THE LOWEST SEVERAL
THOUSAND FEET REMAIN SATURATED AND BELOW FREEZING...BUT THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE IS DRY. ECMWF SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT MORE
SATURATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND WOULD SUGGEST SNOW AS THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...BUT WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW/ICE IN THE COMING
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 425 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SD EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS FROM 35-50KTS WITH ISALLOBARIC
SURGE/MIXING. WINDS WILL SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH 25-40G65KTS AT TIMES GIVEN GRADIENT/COLD AIR
ADVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING TO
     8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ024-028-029-043-044-046-
     047-049.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ027-041-042.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-
     025-026-030>032-072>074.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     WYZ057.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MCKEMY
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 062328
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
428 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VERY POTENT BUT COMPACT SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SFC COLD FRONT QUICKLY ADVECTING SE TOWARD
THE FA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME /TONIGHT INTO SUN EVENING/. INITIAL
ROUND OF PRESSURE RISES AND CAA WILL ENSUE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS. DIURNAL
BL COOLING WILL SUBDUE WINDS MOST PLACES OUTSIDE OF TERRAIN
ENHANCED AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SECONDARY BACKSIDE IMPULSE WILL
DIRECT RE-NEWED PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE REGION SUN
MORNING,...WITH DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING MIXING OF STRONGER
MOMENTUM TO THE SFC. BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST VERY STRONG WINDS WITH
MIXING POTENTIALS SUPPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH
GUSTS IN THE 70S/S MPH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE WINDS GUSTS
OVER 80 MPH IN FAR NW SD AND IN THE LEE OF THE BH GIVEN FLOW
ENHANCEMENT AROUND THE HILLS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
LATE SUNDAY MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. LEFT ALL HEADLINES AS
IS.

AS FOR PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...VERY DRY PROFILES PER RAOB
ANALYSIS CONFIRMS DISMAL QPF OUTPUT FROM MODELS. RETAIN A LOW
CHANCE MENTION IN THE HILLS WHERE UPSLOPE FORCING MAY SQUEEZE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN THE
SYSTEM COLD POOL MAY CLIP FAR EASTERN SCENTRAL SD SUN AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE STRONG WINDS FROM SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO DIE DOWN
DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY DRY AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND RIDGE SET UP IN THE EAST
AND WEST CONUS...RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM UP CONSIDERABLY BY MID WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS NWP GUIDANCE FORECASTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO CLIP NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AROUND THIS SAME TIME...AN ARCTIC FRONT
WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AS THE LOWEST SEVERAL
THOUSAND FEET REMAIN SATURATED AND BELOW FREEZING...BUT THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE IS DRY. ECMWF SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT MORE
SATURATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND WOULD SUGGEST SNOW AS THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...BUT WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW/ICE IN THE COMING
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 425 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SD EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS FROM 35-50KTS WITH ISALLOBARIC
SURGE/MIXING. WINDS WILL SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH 25-40G65KTS AT TIMES GIVEN GRADIENT/COLD AIR
ADVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING TO
     8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ024-028-029-043-044-046-
     047-049.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ027-041-042.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-013.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR SDZ014-025-026-
     030>032-072>074.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     WYZ057.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MCKEMY
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 062328
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
428 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VERY POTENT BUT COMPACT SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SFC COLD FRONT QUICKLY ADVECTING SE TOWARD
THE FA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME /TONIGHT INTO SUN EVENING/. INITIAL
ROUND OF PRESSURE RISES AND CAA WILL ENSUE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS. DIURNAL
BL COOLING WILL SUBDUE WINDS MOST PLACES OUTSIDE OF TERRAIN
ENHANCED AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SECONDARY BACKSIDE IMPULSE WILL
DIRECT RE-NEWED PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE REGION SUN
MORNING,...WITH DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING MIXING OF STRONGER
MOMENTUM TO THE SFC. BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST VERY STRONG WINDS WITH
MIXING POTENTIALS SUPPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH
GUSTS IN THE 70S/S MPH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE WINDS GUSTS
OVER 80 MPH IN FAR NW SD AND IN THE LEE OF THE BH GIVEN FLOW
ENHANCEMENT AROUND THE HILLS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
LATE SUNDAY MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. LEFT ALL HEADLINES AS
IS.

AS FOR PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...VERY DRY PROFILES PER RAOB
ANALYSIS CONFIRMS DISMAL QPF OUTPUT FROM MODELS. RETAIN A LOW
CHANCE MENTION IN THE HILLS WHERE UPSLOPE FORCING MAY SQUEEZE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN THE
SYSTEM COLD POOL MAY CLIP FAR EASTERN SCENTRAL SD SUN AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE STRONG WINDS FROM SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO DIE DOWN
DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY DRY AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND RIDGE SET UP IN THE EAST
AND WEST CONUS...RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM UP CONSIDERABLY BY MID WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS NWP GUIDANCE FORECASTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO CLIP NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AROUND THIS SAME TIME...AN ARCTIC FRONT
WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AS THE LOWEST SEVERAL
THOUSAND FEET REMAIN SATURATED AND BELOW FREEZING...BUT THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE IS DRY. ECMWF SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT MORE
SATURATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND WOULD SUGGEST SNOW AS THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...BUT WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW/ICE IN THE COMING
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 425 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SD EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS FROM 35-50KTS WITH ISALLOBARIC
SURGE/MIXING. WINDS WILL SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH 25-40G65KTS AT TIMES GIVEN GRADIENT/COLD AIR
ADVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING TO
     8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ024-028-029-043-044-046-
     047-049.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ027-041-042.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-013.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR SDZ014-025-026-
     030>032-072>074.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     WYZ057.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MCKEMY
AVIATION...HELGESON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 062328
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
428 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VERY POTENT BUT COMPACT SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SFC COLD FRONT QUICKLY ADVECTING SE TOWARD
THE FA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME /TONIGHT INTO SUN EVENING/. INITIAL
ROUND OF PRESSURE RISES AND CAA WILL ENSUE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS. DIURNAL
BL COOLING WILL SUBDUE WINDS MOST PLACES OUTSIDE OF TERRAIN
ENHANCED AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SECONDARY BACKSIDE IMPULSE WILL
DIRECT RE-NEWED PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE REGION SUN
MORNING,...WITH DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING MIXING OF STRONGER
MOMENTUM TO THE SFC. BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST VERY STRONG WINDS WITH
MIXING POTENTIALS SUPPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH
GUSTS IN THE 70S/S MPH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE WINDS GUSTS
OVER 80 MPH IN FAR NW SD AND IN THE LEE OF THE BH GIVEN FLOW
ENHANCEMENT AROUND THE HILLS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
LATE SUNDAY MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. LEFT ALL HEADLINES AS
IS.

AS FOR PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...VERY DRY PROFILES PER RAOB
ANALYSIS CONFIRMS DISMAL QPF OUTPUT FROM MODELS. RETAIN A LOW
CHANCE MENTION IN THE HILLS WHERE UPSLOPE FORCING MAY SQUEEZE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN THE
SYSTEM COLD POOL MAY CLIP FAR EASTERN SCENTRAL SD SUN AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE STRONG WINDS FROM SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO DIE DOWN
DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY DRY AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND RIDGE SET UP IN THE EAST
AND WEST CONUS...RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM UP CONSIDERABLY BY MID WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS NWP GUIDANCE FORECASTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO CLIP NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AROUND THIS SAME TIME...AN ARCTIC FRONT
WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AS THE LOWEST SEVERAL
THOUSAND FEET REMAIN SATURATED AND BELOW FREEZING...BUT THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE IS DRY. ECMWF SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT MORE
SATURATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND WOULD SUGGEST SNOW AS THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...BUT WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW/ICE IN THE COMING
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 425 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SD EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS FROM 35-50KTS WITH ISALLOBARIC
SURGE/MIXING. WINDS WILL SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH 25-40G65KTS AT TIMES GIVEN GRADIENT/COLD AIR
ADVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING TO
     8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ024-028-029-043-044-046-
     047-049.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ027-041-042.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-013.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR SDZ014-025-026-
     030>032-072>074.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     WYZ057.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MCKEMY
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 062032
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
132 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VERY POTENT BUT COMPACT SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SFC COLD FRONT QUICKLY ADVECTING SE TOWARD
THE FA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME /TONIGHT INTO SUN EVENING/. INITIAL
ROUND OF PRESSURE RISES AND CAA WILL ENSUE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS. DIURNAL
BL COOLING WILL SUBDUE WINDS MOST PLACES OUTSIDE OF TERRAIN
ENHANCED AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SECONDARY BACKSIDE IMPULSE WILL
DIRECT RE-NEWED PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE REGION SUN
MORNING,...WITH DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING MIXING OF STRONGER
MOMENTUM TO THE SFC. BUFFR PROFILES SUGGEST VERY STRONG WINDS WITH
MIXING POTENTIALS SUPPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH
GUSTS IN THE 70S/S MPH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE WINDS GUSTS
OVER 80 MPH IN FAR NW SD AND IN THE LEE OF THE BH GIVEN FLOW
ENHANCEMENT AROUND THE HILLS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
LATE SUNDAY MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. LEFT ALL HEADLINES AS
IS.

AS FOR PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...VERY DRY PROFILES PER RAOB
ANALYSIS CONFIRMS DISMAL QPF OUTPUT FROM MODELS. RETAIN A LOW
CHANCE MENTION IN THE HILLS WHERE UPSLOPE FORCING MAY SQUEEZE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN THE
SYSTEM COLD POOL MAY CLIP FAR EASTERN SCENTRAL SD SUN AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE STRONG WINDS FROM SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO DIE DOWN
DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY DRY AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND RIDGE SET UP IN THE EAST
AND WEST CONUS...RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM UP CONSIDERABLY BY MID WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS NWP GUIDANCE FORECASTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO CLIP NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AROUND THIS SAME TIME...AN ARCTIC FRONT
WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AS THE LOWEST SEVERAL
THOUSAND FEET REMAIN SATURATED AND BELOW FREEZING...BUT THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE IS DRY. ECMWF SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT MORE
SATURATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND WOULD SUGGEST SNOW AS THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...BUT WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW/ICE IN THE COMING
DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS WITH SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF
40MPH...AND GUSTS EXCEEDING 60MPH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING TO
     8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ024-028-029-043-044-046-
     047-049.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ027-041-042.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-013.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR SDZ014-025-026-030>032-072>074.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     WYZ057.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MCKEMY
AVIATION...MCKEMY





000
FXUS63 KUNR 061724
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1024 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 216 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

DEEP UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A WEAK RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES AND A WAVE PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY WESTERLY...AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S.

WARM AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS AS
RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. FAST-MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY PUSH
INTO THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND VERY
STRONG WINDS TO NORTHWESTERN SD. NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOWING 50-70KT
WINDS 850-700MB...WITH THE ECMWF STILL SLIGHTLY WEAKER. AS INITIAL
COLD SURGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...MAY BE SOME STRONG
GUSTS IN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE HILLS...AND SO UPGRADED WATCH
TO WARNING AT 00Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. EXPECT SOMEWHAT OF A LULL
OVERNIGHT BUT STILL VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUING CAA
ACROSS THE AREA...AND COLLABORATION WITH OTHER OFFICES LED TO
UPGRADING MUCH OF THE SD PLAINS TO A HIGH WIND WARNING BY 06Z...WITH
ADVISORIES OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD. BLACK HILLS ARE ALSO IN A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR POSSIBLE TREE DAMAGE IMPACTS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW SLIDES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND ISALLOBARIC WINDS WILL AID IN THE STRENGTHENING OF
WINDS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS ON SUNDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35-45 KTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 60 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD...BUT STILL REMAIN
BREEZY...NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA...THROUGH THE NIGHT.

A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN WY AND THE BLACK HILLS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL AS PROFILES ARE FAIRLY DRY. COOLER BUT
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 216 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

A LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND BREAKING DOWN BY
MIDWEEK. THE SD PLAINS WILL STILL BE WINDY ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT
NEARLY AS STRONG AS SUNDAY. A WEAK WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE FLOW
THURSDAY AND THEN THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...WITH A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 1021 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS WITH SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF
40MPH...AND GUSTS EXCEEDING 60MPH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING TO
     8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ024-028-029-043-044-046-
     047-049.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ027-041-042.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR SDZ001-002-012-013.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR SDZ014-025-026-030>032-072>074.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     WYZ057.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...MCKEMY





000
FXUS63 KUNR 061724
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1024 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 216 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

DEEP UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A WEAK RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES AND A WAVE PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY WESTERLY...AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S.

WARM AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS AS
RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. FAST-MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY PUSH
INTO THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND VERY
STRONG WINDS TO NORTHWESTERN SD. NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOWING 50-70KT
WINDS 850-700MB...WITH THE ECMWF STILL SLIGHTLY WEAKER. AS INITIAL
COLD SURGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...MAY BE SOME STRONG
GUSTS IN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE HILLS...AND SO UPGRADED WATCH
TO WARNING AT 00Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. EXPECT SOMEWHAT OF A LULL
OVERNIGHT BUT STILL VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUING CAA
ACROSS THE AREA...AND COLLABORATION WITH OTHER OFFICES LED TO
UPGRADING MUCH OF THE SD PLAINS TO A HIGH WIND WARNING BY 06Z...WITH
ADVISORIES OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD. BLACK HILLS ARE ALSO IN A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR POSSIBLE TREE DAMAGE IMPACTS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW SLIDES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND ISALLOBARIC WINDS WILL AID IN THE STRENGTHENING OF
WINDS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS ON SUNDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35-45 KTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 60 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD...BUT STILL REMAIN
BREEZY...NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA...THROUGH THE NIGHT.

A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN WY AND THE BLACK HILLS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL AS PROFILES ARE FAIRLY DRY. COOLER BUT
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 216 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

A LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND BREAKING DOWN BY
MIDWEEK. THE SD PLAINS WILL STILL BE WINDY ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT
NEARLY AS STRONG AS SUNDAY. A WEAK WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE FLOW
THURSDAY AND THEN THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...WITH A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 1021 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS WITH SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF
40MPH...AND GUSTS EXCEEDING 60MPH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING TO
     8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ024-028-029-043-044-046-
     047-049.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ027-041-042.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR SDZ001-002-012-013.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR SDZ014-025-026-030>032-072>074.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     WYZ057.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...MCKEMY





000
FXUS63 KUNR 060922
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
222 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 216 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

DEEP UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A WEAK RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES AND A WAVE PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY WESTERLY...AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S.

WARM AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS AS
RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. FAST-MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY PUSH
INTO THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND VERY
STRONG WINDS TO NORTHWESTERN SD. NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOWING 50-70KT
WINDS 850-700MB...WITH THE ECMWF STILL SLIGHTLY WEAKER. AS INITIAL
COLD SURGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...MAY BE SOME STRONG
GUSTS IN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE HILLS...AND SO UPGRADED WATCH
TO WARNING AT 00Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. EXPECT SOMEWHAT OF A LULL
OVERNIGHT BUT STILL VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUING CAA
ACROSS THE AREA...AND COLLABORATION WITH OTHER OFFICES LED TO
UPGRADING MUCH OF THE SD PLAINS TO A HIGH WIND WARNING BY 06Z...WITH
ADVISORIES OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD. BLACK HILLS ARE ALSO IN A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR POSSIBLE TREE DAMAGE IMPACTS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW SLIDES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND ISALLOBARIC WINDS WILL AID IN THE STRENGTHENING OF
WINDS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS ON SUNDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35-45 KTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 60 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD...BUT STILL REMAIN
BREEZY...NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA...THROUGH THE NIGHT.

A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN WY AND THE BLACK HILLS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL AS PROFILES ARE FAIRLY DRY. COOLER BUT
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 216 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

A LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND BREAKING DOWN BY
MIDWEEK. THE SD PLAINS WILL STILL BE WINDY ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT
NEARLY AS STRONG AS SUNDAY. A WEAK WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE FLOW
THURSDAY AND THEN THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...WITH A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 216 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING TO
     8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ024-028-029-043-044-046-
     047-049.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ027-041-042.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR SDZ001-002-012-013.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR SDZ014-025-026-030>032-072>074.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     WYZ057.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KUNR 060922
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
222 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 216 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

DEEP UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A WEAK RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES AND A WAVE PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY WESTERLY...AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S.

WARM AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS AS
RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. FAST-MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY PUSH
INTO THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND VERY
STRONG WINDS TO NORTHWESTERN SD. NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOWING 50-70KT
WINDS 850-700MB...WITH THE ECMWF STILL SLIGHTLY WEAKER. AS INITIAL
COLD SURGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...MAY BE SOME STRONG
GUSTS IN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE HILLS...AND SO UPGRADED WATCH
TO WARNING AT 00Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. EXPECT SOMEWHAT OF A LULL
OVERNIGHT BUT STILL VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUING CAA
ACROSS THE AREA...AND COLLABORATION WITH OTHER OFFICES LED TO
UPGRADING MUCH OF THE SD PLAINS TO A HIGH WIND WARNING BY 06Z...WITH
ADVISORIES OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD. BLACK HILLS ARE ALSO IN A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR POSSIBLE TREE DAMAGE IMPACTS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW SLIDES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND ISALLOBARIC WINDS WILL AID IN THE STRENGTHENING OF
WINDS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS ON SUNDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35-45 KTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 60 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD...BUT STILL REMAIN
BREEZY...NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA...THROUGH THE NIGHT.

A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN WY AND THE BLACK HILLS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL AS PROFILES ARE FAIRLY DRY. COOLER BUT
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 216 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

A LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND BREAKING DOWN BY
MIDWEEK. THE SD PLAINS WILL STILL BE WINDY ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT
NEARLY AS STRONG AS SUNDAY. A WEAK WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE FLOW
THURSDAY AND THEN THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...WITH A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 216 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING TO
     8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ024-028-029-043-044-046-
     047-049.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ027-041-042.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR SDZ001-002-012-013.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR SDZ014-025-026-030>032-072>074.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     WYZ057.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 060922
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
222 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 216 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

DEEP UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A WEAK RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES AND A WAVE PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY WESTERLY...AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S.

WARM AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS AS
RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. FAST-MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY PUSH
INTO THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND VERY
STRONG WINDS TO NORTHWESTERN SD. NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOWING 50-70KT
WINDS 850-700MB...WITH THE ECMWF STILL SLIGHTLY WEAKER. AS INITIAL
COLD SURGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...MAY BE SOME STRONG
GUSTS IN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE HILLS...AND SO UPGRADED WATCH
TO WARNING AT 00Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. EXPECT SOMEWHAT OF A LULL
OVERNIGHT BUT STILL VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUING CAA
ACROSS THE AREA...AND COLLABORATION WITH OTHER OFFICES LED TO
UPGRADING MUCH OF THE SD PLAINS TO A HIGH WIND WARNING BY 06Z...WITH
ADVISORIES OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD. BLACK HILLS ARE ALSO IN A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR POSSIBLE TREE DAMAGE IMPACTS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW SLIDES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND ISALLOBARIC WINDS WILL AID IN THE STRENGTHENING OF
WINDS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS ON SUNDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35-45 KTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 60 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD...BUT STILL REMAIN
BREEZY...NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA...THROUGH THE NIGHT.

A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN WY AND THE BLACK HILLS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL AS PROFILES ARE FAIRLY DRY. COOLER BUT
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 216 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

A LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND BREAKING DOWN BY
MIDWEEK. THE SD PLAINS WILL STILL BE WINDY ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT
NEARLY AS STRONG AS SUNDAY. A WEAK WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE FLOW
THURSDAY AND THEN THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...WITH A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 216 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING TO
     8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ024-028-029-043-044-046-
     047-049.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ027-041-042.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR SDZ001-002-012-013.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR SDZ014-025-026-030>032-072>074.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     WYZ057.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 060512
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1012 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

POTENT MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE PAC NW WILL QUICKLY ADVECT EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...SUPPORTING MILD CONDS
SAT...AND COOLER BUT VERY WINDY CONDS SUNDAY. BIGGEST CONCERN WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS...WITH A VERY GOOD SETUP FOR
WIDESPREAD 50-70 MPH WINDS ACROSS NW SD SUN.

TONIGHT...WAA WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION WITH STRONG SFC
PRESSURE FALLS ENSUING. THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SW WINDS OVER
NE WY AND IN THE FAVORED NORTHERN BH DOWNSLOPE AREAS...WITH WINDS
OF 20-30 AND GUSTS IN THE 40S EXPECTED THERE LATER TONIGHT. WAA
/POS-THETA-E WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPORT A BAND OF MID CLOUD/VIRGA
OVER THE AREA TOWARD DAWN OVER WESTERN AREAS.

SAT/SUN...POS THETA-E BAND WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH AT MOST A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES POSSIBLE...CERTAINLY
NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...SFC COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...WITH SFC PRESSURE RISES AND CAA
ADV ENSUING ACROSS THE NW. LINKED WIND PROFILES/MODERATE
MIXING/AND ISALLOBARIC ALIGNMENT WITH THE LL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
GOOD TRANSLATION OF STRONGER FLOW TO THE SFC. IN
ADDITION...GEOSTROPHIC WINDS AT H925 INDICATE 70+ KNOTS ACROSS NW
SD...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SFC GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS.
HENCE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING ACROSS FAR NW SD
STARTING SAT AFTERNOON. STRONGER FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL LET THE
WATCH RIDE AS THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COME IN ABOUT 6 HOURS
EARLIER...LEADING TO A SHIFT IN MAX WINDS ALOFT MORE TOWARD SUN
MORNING AS APPOSED TO SUN AFTERNOON. BUFFER PROFILES INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR 60-70 MPH GUST AT ALL PLACE IN THE WATCH/WARNING
OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...WHICH SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN
MIXING POTENTIALS. ALSO EXTENDED THE WATCH TO THE BLACK HILLS AS
CONCERNS OVER TREE FALLS PER PINE BEETLE KILLS. WINDS OF 40-60 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE HILLS...ESP ON RIDGES.

RETAINED A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BH AND NORTHWEST SD SAT EVENING...ALTHOUGH DRIER PROFILES
CERTAINLY DON/T WARRANT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ATTM. A WEAK
UPSLOPE SIGNAL IS PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...HOWEVER
LACK OF APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WILL HIGHLY LIMIT ANY ACTIVITY.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT VERY MILD CONDS SAT WITH SOME 50S EXPECTED
ON THE SD PLAINS...POSSIBLY EVEN A 60 OR TWO DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER. COOLER CONDS ARE EXPECTED SUN...WITH MOSTLY 30S AND A FEW
40S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

A LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND BREAKING DOWN BY
MIDWEEK. A WEAK WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE FLOW THURSDAY AND THEN THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL ON MONDAY BUT WILL WARM QUITE A BIT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON THURSDAY...BEFORE
REBOUNDING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ014-024>026-028>032-043-044-046-047-049-072>074.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ001-002-012-013.

WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...7





000
FXUS63 KUNR 060512
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1012 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

POTENT MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE PAC NW WILL QUICKLY ADVECT EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...SUPPORTING MILD CONDS
SAT...AND COOLER BUT VERY WINDY CONDS SUNDAY. BIGGEST CONCERN WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS...WITH A VERY GOOD SETUP FOR
WIDESPREAD 50-70 MPH WINDS ACROSS NW SD SUN.

TONIGHT...WAA WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION WITH STRONG SFC
PRESSURE FALLS ENSUING. THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SW WINDS OVER
NE WY AND IN THE FAVORED NORTHERN BH DOWNSLOPE AREAS...WITH WINDS
OF 20-30 AND GUSTS IN THE 40S EXPECTED THERE LATER TONIGHT. WAA
/POS-THETA-E WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPORT A BAND OF MID CLOUD/VIRGA
OVER THE AREA TOWARD DAWN OVER WESTERN AREAS.

SAT/SUN...POS THETA-E BAND WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH AT MOST A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES POSSIBLE...CERTAINLY
NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...SFC COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...WITH SFC PRESSURE RISES AND CAA
ADV ENSUING ACROSS THE NW. LINKED WIND PROFILES/MODERATE
MIXING/AND ISALLOBARIC ALIGNMENT WITH THE LL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
GOOD TRANSLATION OF STRONGER FLOW TO THE SFC. IN
ADDITION...GEOSTROPHIC WINDS AT H925 INDICATE 70+ KNOTS ACROSS NW
SD...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SFC GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS.
HENCE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING ACROSS FAR NW SD
STARTING SAT AFTERNOON. STRONGER FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL LET THE
WATCH RIDE AS THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COME IN ABOUT 6 HOURS
EARLIER...LEADING TO A SHIFT IN MAX WINDS ALOFT MORE TOWARD SUN
MORNING AS APPOSED TO SUN AFTERNOON. BUFFER PROFILES INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR 60-70 MPH GUST AT ALL PLACE IN THE WATCH/WARNING
OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...WHICH SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN
MIXING POTENTIALS. ALSO EXTENDED THE WATCH TO THE BLACK HILLS AS
CONCERNS OVER TREE FALLS PER PINE BEETLE KILLS. WINDS OF 40-60 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE HILLS...ESP ON RIDGES.

RETAINED A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BH AND NORTHWEST SD SAT EVENING...ALTHOUGH DRIER PROFILES
CERTAINLY DON/T WARRANT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ATTM. A WEAK
UPSLOPE SIGNAL IS PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...HOWEVER
LACK OF APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WILL HIGHLY LIMIT ANY ACTIVITY.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT VERY MILD CONDS SAT WITH SOME 50S EXPECTED
ON THE SD PLAINS...POSSIBLY EVEN A 60 OR TWO DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER. COOLER CONDS ARE EXPECTED SUN...WITH MOSTLY 30S AND A FEW
40S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

A LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND BREAKING DOWN BY
MIDWEEK. A WEAK WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE FLOW THURSDAY AND THEN THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL ON MONDAY BUT WILL WARM QUITE A BIT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON THURSDAY...BEFORE
REBOUNDING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ014-024>026-028>032-043-044-046-047-049-072>074.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ001-002-012-013.

WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...7




000
FXUS63 KUNR 060512
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1012 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

POTENT MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE PAC NW WILL QUICKLY ADVECT EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...SUPPORTING MILD CONDS
SAT...AND COOLER BUT VERY WINDY CONDS SUNDAY. BIGGEST CONCERN WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS...WITH A VERY GOOD SETUP FOR
WIDESPREAD 50-70 MPH WINDS ACROSS NW SD SUN.

TONIGHT...WAA WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION WITH STRONG SFC
PRESSURE FALLS ENSUING. THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SW WINDS OVER
NE WY AND IN THE FAVORED NORTHERN BH DOWNSLOPE AREAS...WITH WINDS
OF 20-30 AND GUSTS IN THE 40S EXPECTED THERE LATER TONIGHT. WAA
/POS-THETA-E WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPORT A BAND OF MID CLOUD/VIRGA
OVER THE AREA TOWARD DAWN OVER WESTERN AREAS.

SAT/SUN...POS THETA-E BAND WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH AT MOST A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES POSSIBLE...CERTAINLY
NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...SFC COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...WITH SFC PRESSURE RISES AND CAA
ADV ENSUING ACROSS THE NW. LINKED WIND PROFILES/MODERATE
MIXING/AND ISALLOBARIC ALIGNMENT WITH THE LL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
GOOD TRANSLATION OF STRONGER FLOW TO THE SFC. IN
ADDITION...GEOSTROPHIC WINDS AT H925 INDICATE 70+ KNOTS ACROSS NW
SD...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SFC GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS.
HENCE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING ACROSS FAR NW SD
STARTING SAT AFTERNOON. STRONGER FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL LET THE
WATCH RIDE AS THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COME IN ABOUT 6 HOURS
EARLIER...LEADING TO A SHIFT IN MAX WINDS ALOFT MORE TOWARD SUN
MORNING AS APPOSED TO SUN AFTERNOON. BUFFER PROFILES INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR 60-70 MPH GUST AT ALL PLACE IN THE WATCH/WARNING
OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...WHICH SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN
MIXING POTENTIALS. ALSO EXTENDED THE WATCH TO THE BLACK HILLS AS
CONCERNS OVER TREE FALLS PER PINE BEETLE KILLS. WINDS OF 40-60 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE HILLS...ESP ON RIDGES.

RETAINED A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BH AND NORTHWEST SD SAT EVENING...ALTHOUGH DRIER PROFILES
CERTAINLY DON/T WARRANT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ATTM. A WEAK
UPSLOPE SIGNAL IS PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...HOWEVER
LACK OF APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WILL HIGHLY LIMIT ANY ACTIVITY.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT VERY MILD CONDS SAT WITH SOME 50S EXPECTED
ON THE SD PLAINS...POSSIBLY EVEN A 60 OR TWO DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER. COOLER CONDS ARE EXPECTED SUN...WITH MOSTLY 30S AND A FEW
40S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

A LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND BREAKING DOWN BY
MIDWEEK. A WEAK WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE FLOW THURSDAY AND THEN THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL ON MONDAY BUT WILL WARM QUITE A BIT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON THURSDAY...BEFORE
REBOUNDING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ014-024>026-028>032-043-044-046-047-049-072>074.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ001-002-012-013.

WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...7





000
FXUS63 KUNR 052107
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
206 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

POTENT MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE PAC NW WILL QUICKLY ADVECT EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...SUPPORTING MILD CONDS
SAT...AND COOLER BUT VERY WINDY CONDS SUNDAY. BIGGEST CONCERN WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS...WITH A VERY GOOD SETUP FOR
WIDESPREAD 50-70 MPH WINDS ACROSS NW SD SUN.

TONIGHT...WAA WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION WITH STRONG SFC
PRESSURE FALLS ENSUING. THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SW WINDS OVER
NE WY AND IN THE FAVORED NORTHERN BH DOWNSLOPE AREAS...WITH WINDS
OF 20-30 AND GUSTS IN THE 40S EXPECTED THERE LATER TONIGHT. WAA
/POS-THETA-E WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPORT A BAND OF MID CLOUD/VIRGA
OVER THE AREA TOWARD DAWN OVER WESTERN AREAS.

SAT/SUN...POS THETA-E BAND WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH AT MOST A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES POSSIBLE...CERTAINLY
NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...SFC COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...WITH SFC PRESSURE RISES AND CAA
ADV ENSUING ACROSS THE NW. LINKED WIND PROFILES/MODERATE
MIXING/AND ISALLOBARIC ALIGNMENT WITH THE LL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
GOOD TRANSLATION OF STRONGER FLOW TO THE SFC. IN
ADDITION...GEOSTROPHIC WINDS AT H925 INDICATE 70+ KNOTS ACROSS NW
SD...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SFC GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS.
HENCE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING ACROSS FAR NW SD
STARTING SAT AFTERNOON. STRONGER FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL LET THE
WATCH RIDE AS THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COME IN ABOUT 6 HOURS
EARLIER...LEADING TO A SHIFT IN MAX WINDS ALOFT MORE TOWARD SUN
MORNING AS APPOSED TO SUN AFTERNOON. BUFFER PROFILES INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR 60-70 MPH GUST AT ALL PLACE IN THE WATCH/WARNING
OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...WHICH SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN
MIXING POTENTIALS. ALSO EXTENDED THE WATCH TO THE BLACK HILLS AS
CONCERNS OVER TREE FALLS PER PINE BEETLE KILLS. WINDS OF 40-60 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE HILLS...ESP ON RIDGES.

RETAINED A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BH AND NORTHWEST SD SAT EVENING...ALTHOUGH DRIER PROFILES
CERTAINLY DON/T WARRANT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ATTM. A WEAK
UPSLOPE SIGNAL IS PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...HOWEVER
LACK OF APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WILL HIGHLY LIMIT ANY ACTIVITY.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT VERY MILD CONDS SAT WITH SOME 50S EXPECTED
ON THE SD PLAINS...POSSIBLY EVEN A 60 OR TWO DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER. COOLER CONDS ARE EXPECTED SUN...WITH MOSTLY 30S AND A FEW
40S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

A LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND BREAKING DOWN BY
MIDWEEK. A WEAK WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE FLOW THURSDAY AND THEN THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL ON MONDAY BUT WILL WARM QUITE A BIT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON THURSDAY...BEFORE
REBOUNDING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH VERY STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ014-024>026-028>032-043-044-046-047-049-072>074.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ001-002-012-013.

WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...MLS





000
FXUS63 KUNR 052107
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
206 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

POTENT MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE PAC NW WILL QUICKLY ADVECT EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...SUPPORTING MILD CONDS
SAT...AND COOLER BUT VERY WINDY CONDS SUNDAY. BIGGEST CONCERN WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS...WITH A VERY GOOD SETUP FOR
WIDESPREAD 50-70 MPH WINDS ACROSS NW SD SUN.

TONIGHT...WAA WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION WITH STRONG SFC
PRESSURE FALLS ENSUING. THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SW WINDS OVER
NE WY AND IN THE FAVORED NORTHERN BH DOWNSLOPE AREAS...WITH WINDS
OF 20-30 AND GUSTS IN THE 40S EXPECTED THERE LATER TONIGHT. WAA
/POS-THETA-E WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPORT A BAND OF MID CLOUD/VIRGA
OVER THE AREA TOWARD DAWN OVER WESTERN AREAS.

SAT/SUN...POS THETA-E BAND WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH AT MOST A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES POSSIBLE...CERTAINLY
NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...SFC COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...WITH SFC PRESSURE RISES AND CAA
ADV ENSUING ACROSS THE NW. LINKED WIND PROFILES/MODERATE
MIXING/AND ISALLOBARIC ALIGNMENT WITH THE LL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
GOOD TRANSLATION OF STRONGER FLOW TO THE SFC. IN
ADDITION...GEOSTROPHIC WINDS AT H925 INDICATE 70+ KNOTS ACROSS NW
SD...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SFC GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS.
HENCE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING ACROSS FAR NW SD
STARTING SAT AFTERNOON. STRONGER FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL LET THE
WATCH RIDE AS THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COME IN ABOUT 6 HOURS
EARLIER...LEADING TO A SHIFT IN MAX WINDS ALOFT MORE TOWARD SUN
MORNING AS APPOSED TO SUN AFTERNOON. BUFFER PROFILES INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR 60-70 MPH GUST AT ALL PLACE IN THE WATCH/WARNING
OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...WHICH SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN
MIXING POTENTIALS. ALSO EXTENDED THE WATCH TO THE BLACK HILLS AS
CONCERNS OVER TREE FALLS PER PINE BEETLE KILLS. WINDS OF 40-60 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE HILLS...ESP ON RIDGES.

RETAINED A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BH AND NORTHWEST SD SAT EVENING...ALTHOUGH DRIER PROFILES
CERTAINLY DON/T WARRANT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ATTM. A WEAK
UPSLOPE SIGNAL IS PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...HOWEVER
LACK OF APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WILL HIGHLY LIMIT ANY ACTIVITY.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT VERY MILD CONDS SAT WITH SOME 50S EXPECTED
ON THE SD PLAINS...POSSIBLY EVEN A 60 OR TWO DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER. COOLER CONDS ARE EXPECTED SUN...WITH MOSTLY 30S AND A FEW
40S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

A LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND BREAKING DOWN BY
MIDWEEK. A WEAK WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE FLOW THURSDAY AND THEN THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL ON MONDAY BUT WILL WARM QUITE A BIT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON THURSDAY...BEFORE
REBOUNDING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH VERY STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ014-024>026-028>032-043-044-046-047-049-072>074.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ001-002-012-013.

WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...MLS





000
FXUS63 KUNR 052107
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
206 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

POTENT MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE PAC NW WILL QUICKLY ADVECT EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...SUPPORTING MILD CONDS
SAT...AND COOLER BUT VERY WINDY CONDS SUNDAY. BIGGEST CONCERN WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS...WITH A VERY GOOD SETUP FOR
WIDESPREAD 50-70 MPH WINDS ACROSS NW SD SUN.

TONIGHT...WAA WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION WITH STRONG SFC
PRESSURE FALLS ENSUING. THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SW WINDS OVER
NE WY AND IN THE FAVORED NORTHERN BH DOWNSLOPE AREAS...WITH WINDS
OF 20-30 AND GUSTS IN THE 40S EXPECTED THERE LATER TONIGHT. WAA
/POS-THETA-E WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPORT A BAND OF MID CLOUD/VIRGA
OVER THE AREA TOWARD DAWN OVER WESTERN AREAS.

SAT/SUN...POS THETA-E BAND WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH AT MOST A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES POSSIBLE...CERTAINLY
NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...SFC COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...WITH SFC PRESSURE RISES AND CAA
ADV ENSUING ACROSS THE NW. LINKED WIND PROFILES/MODERATE
MIXING/AND ISALLOBARIC ALIGNMENT WITH THE LL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
GOOD TRANSLATION OF STRONGER FLOW TO THE SFC. IN
ADDITION...GEOSTROPHIC WINDS AT H925 INDICATE 70+ KNOTS ACROSS NW
SD...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SFC GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS.
HENCE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING ACROSS FAR NW SD
STARTING SAT AFTERNOON. STRONGER FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL LET THE
WATCH RIDE AS THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COME IN ABOUT 6 HOURS
EARLIER...LEADING TO A SHIFT IN MAX WINDS ALOFT MORE TOWARD SUN
MORNING AS APPOSED TO SUN AFTERNOON. BUFFER PROFILES INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR 60-70 MPH GUST AT ALL PLACE IN THE WATCH/WARNING
OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...WHICH SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN
MIXING POTENTIALS. ALSO EXTENDED THE WATCH TO THE BLACK HILLS AS
CONCERNS OVER TREE FALLS PER PINE BEETLE KILLS. WINDS OF 40-60 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE HILLS...ESP ON RIDGES.

RETAINED A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BH AND NORTHWEST SD SAT EVENING...ALTHOUGH DRIER PROFILES
CERTAINLY DON/T WARRANT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ATTM. A WEAK
UPSLOPE SIGNAL IS PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...HOWEVER
LACK OF APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WILL HIGHLY LIMIT ANY ACTIVITY.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT VERY MILD CONDS SAT WITH SOME 50S EXPECTED
ON THE SD PLAINS...POSSIBLY EVEN A 60 OR TWO DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER. COOLER CONDS ARE EXPECTED SUN...WITH MOSTLY 30S AND A FEW
40S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

A LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND BREAKING DOWN BY
MIDWEEK. A WEAK WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE FLOW THURSDAY AND THEN THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL ON MONDAY BUT WILL WARM QUITE A BIT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON THURSDAY...BEFORE
REBOUNDING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH VERY STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ014-024>026-028>032-043-044-046-047-049-072>074.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ001-002-012-013.

WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...MLS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 052106
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
206 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

POTENT MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE PAC NW WILL QUICKLY ADVECT EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...SUPPORTING MILD CONDS
SAT...AND COOLER BUT VERY WINDY CONDS SUNDAY. BIGGEST CONCERN WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS...WITH A VERY GOOD SETUP FOR
WIDESPREAD 50-70 MPH WINDS ACROSS NW SD SUN.

TONIGHT...WAA WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION WITH STRONG SFC
PRESSURE FALLS ENSUING. THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SW WINDS OVER
NE WY AND IN THE FAVORED NORTHERN BH DOWNSLOPE AREAS...WITH WINDS
OF 20-30 AND GUSTS IN THE 40S EXPECTED THERE LATER TONIGHT. WAA
/POS-THETA-E WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPORT A BAND OF MID CLOUD/VIRGA
OVER THE AREA TOWARD DAWN OVER WESTERN AREAS.

SAT/SUN...POS THETA-E BAND WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH AT MOST A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES POSSIBLE...CERTAINLY
NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...SFC COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...WITH SFC PRESSURE RISES AND CAA
ADV ENSUING ACROSS THE NW. LINKED WIND PROFILES/MODERATE
MIXING/AND ISALLOBARIC ALIGNMENT WITH THE LL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
GOOD TRANSLATION OF STRONGER FLOW TO THE SFC. IN
ADDITION...GEOSTROPHIC WINDS AT H925 INDICATE 70+ KNOTS ACROSS NW
SD...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SFC GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS.
HENCE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING ACROSS FAR NW SD
STARTING SAT AFTERNOON. STRONGER FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL LET THE
WATCH RIDE AS THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COME IN ABOUT 6 HOURS
EARLIER...LEADING TO A SHIFT IN MAX WINDS ALOFT MORE TOWARD SUN
MORNING AS APPOSED TO SUN AFTERNOON. BUFFER PROFILES INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR 60-70 MPH GUST AT ALL PLACE IN THE WATCH/WARNING
OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS...WHICH SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN
MIXING POTENTIALS. ALSO EXTENDED THE WATCH TO THE BLACK HILLS AS
CONCERNS OVER TREE FALLS PER PINE BEETLE KILLS. WINDS OF 40-60 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE HILLS...ESP ON RIDGES.

RETAINED A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BH AND NORTHWEST SD SAT EVENING...ALTHOUGH DRIER PROFILES
CERTAINLY DON/T WARRANT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ATTM. A WEAK
UPSLOPE SIGNAL IS PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...HOWEVER
LACK OF APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WILL HIGHLY LIMIT ANY ACTIVITY.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT VERY MILD CONDS SAT WITH SOME 50S EXPECTED
ON THE SD PLAINS...POSSIBLY EVEN A 60 OR TWO DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER. COOLER CONDS ARE EXPECTED SUN...WITH MOSTLY 30S AND A FEW
40S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

A LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND BREAKING DOWN BY
MIDWEEK. A WEAK WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE FLOW THURSDAY AND THEN THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL ON MONDAY BUT WILL WARM QUITE A BIT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON THURSDAY...BEFORE
REBOUNDING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH VERY STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ014-024>026-028>032-043-044-046-047-049-072>074.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ001-002-012-013.

WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...MLS





000
FXUS63 KUNR 051803
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1103 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPPER WAVE IS PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PRODUCING
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY/SOUTHEASTERN MT AND
THE BLACK HILLS AS INDICATED BY RADAR AND OBS. SURFACE TROUGH
STRETCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...WINDS
ARE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT WESTERLY...AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

AS WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING
WILL END BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION. SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A FAST-MOVING WAVE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING COOLER AIR...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...AND VERY
STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ABOUT ROBUST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND NAM ARE STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF.
GFS/NAM SHOW 50-60 KT 850 MB WINDS ACROSS NW SD BY 18Z
SAT...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AND EXPANDING SOUTH AND EASTWARD.
INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA SAT AFTERNOON...WITH CAA
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST SD BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WILL ISSUE HIGH WIND WATCH BEGINNING IN NORTHWEST SD 18Z
SAT AND EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD FOR SUNDAY. WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND STRONG MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS STACKED LOW
TRACKS SEWD ACROSS MN. 700MB WINDS OF 60-70KTS COMBINED WITH
CAA/DEEP MIXING WILL SUPPORT THESE WINDS MIXING TOWARDS THE SFC
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE USUAL WINDY AREAS OF NWRN SD. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING. COULD BE SOME UPSLOPE -SHSN IN THE
NRN BLKHLS ON SUNDAY BUT THOSE WILL ALSO DIMINISH BY SUNDAY EVE.
DRY WX ALONG WITH REBOUNDING TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE EARLY TO MID
WEEK TIME FRAME AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE WRN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BY
SUNSET. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR SDZ012>014-025-026-031-032-043-046-047-049-
     072-073.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR SDZ001-002.

WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...MLS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 051803
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1103 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPPER WAVE IS PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PRODUCING
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY/SOUTHEASTERN MT AND
THE BLACK HILLS AS INDICATED BY RADAR AND OBS. SURFACE TROUGH
STRETCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...WINDS
ARE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT WESTERLY...AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

AS WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING
WILL END BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION. SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A FAST-MOVING WAVE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING COOLER AIR...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...AND VERY
STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ABOUT ROBUST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND NAM ARE STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF.
GFS/NAM SHOW 50-60 KT 850 MB WINDS ACROSS NW SD BY 18Z
SAT...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AND EXPANDING SOUTH AND EASTWARD.
INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA SAT AFTERNOON...WITH CAA
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST SD BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WILL ISSUE HIGH WIND WATCH BEGINNING IN NORTHWEST SD 18Z
SAT AND EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD FOR SUNDAY. WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND STRONG MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS STACKED LOW
TRACKS SEWD ACROSS MN. 700MB WINDS OF 60-70KTS COMBINED WITH
CAA/DEEP MIXING WILL SUPPORT THESE WINDS MIXING TOWARDS THE SFC
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE USUAL WINDY AREAS OF NWRN SD. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING. COULD BE SOME UPSLOPE -SHSN IN THE
NRN BLKHLS ON SUNDAY BUT THOSE WILL ALSO DIMINISH BY SUNDAY EVE.
DRY WX ALONG WITH REBOUNDING TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE EARLY TO MID
WEEK TIME FRAME AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE WRN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BY
SUNSET. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR SDZ012>014-025-026-031-032-043-046-047-049-
     072-073.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR SDZ001-002.

WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...MLS





000
FXUS63 KUNR 051803
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1103 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPPER WAVE IS PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PRODUCING
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY/SOUTHEASTERN MT AND
THE BLACK HILLS AS INDICATED BY RADAR AND OBS. SURFACE TROUGH
STRETCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...WINDS
ARE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT WESTERLY...AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

AS WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING
WILL END BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION. SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A FAST-MOVING WAVE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING COOLER AIR...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...AND VERY
STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ABOUT ROBUST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND NAM ARE STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF.
GFS/NAM SHOW 50-60 KT 850 MB WINDS ACROSS NW SD BY 18Z
SAT...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AND EXPANDING SOUTH AND EASTWARD.
INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA SAT AFTERNOON...WITH CAA
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST SD BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WILL ISSUE HIGH WIND WATCH BEGINNING IN NORTHWEST SD 18Z
SAT AND EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD FOR SUNDAY. WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND STRONG MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS STACKED LOW
TRACKS SEWD ACROSS MN. 700MB WINDS OF 60-70KTS COMBINED WITH
CAA/DEEP MIXING WILL SUPPORT THESE WINDS MIXING TOWARDS THE SFC
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE USUAL WINDY AREAS OF NWRN SD. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING. COULD BE SOME UPSLOPE -SHSN IN THE
NRN BLKHLS ON SUNDAY BUT THOSE WILL ALSO DIMINISH BY SUNDAY EVE.
DRY WX ALONG WITH REBOUNDING TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE EARLY TO MID
WEEK TIME FRAME AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE WRN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BY
SUNSET. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR SDZ012>014-025-026-031-032-043-046-047-049-
     072-073.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR SDZ001-002.

WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...MLS





000
FXUS63 KUNR 050955
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
255 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPPER WAVE IS PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PRODUCING
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY/SOUTHEASTERN MT AND
THE BLACK HILLS AS INDICATED BY RADAR AND OBS. SURFACE TROUGH
STRETCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...WINDS
ARE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT WESTERLY...AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

AS WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING
WILL END BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION. SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A FAST-MOVING WAVE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING COOLER AIR...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...AND VERY
STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ABOUT ROBUST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND NAM ARE STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF.
GFS/NAM SHOW 50-60 KT 850 MB WINDS ACROSS NW SD BY 18Z
SAT...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AND EXPANDING SOUTH AND EASTWARD.
INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA SAT AFTERNOON...WITH CAA
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST SD BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WILL ISSUE HIGH WIND WATCH BEGINNING IN NORTHWEST SD 18Z
SAT AND EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD FOR SUNDAY. WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND STRONG MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS STACKED LOW
TRACKS SEWD ACROSS MN. 700MB WINDS OF 60-70KTS COMBINED WITH
CAA/DEEP MIXING WILL SUPPORT THESE WINDS MIXING TOWARDS THE SFC
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE USUAL WINDY AREAS OF NWRN SD. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING. COULD BE SOME UPSLOPE -SHSN IN THE
NRN BLKHLS ON SUNDAY BUT THOSE WILL ALSO DIMINISH BY SUNDAY EVE.
DRY WX ALONG WITH REBOUNDING TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE EARLY TO MID
WEEK TIME FRAME AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE WRN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MRNG -SHSN TO NERN WY INTO
THE BLKHLS AND FAR WRN SD WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVIER -SHSN. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE BY AFTN WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST AREAS. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 30KTS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR SDZ012>014-025-026-031-032-043-046-047-049- 072-073.

 HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
 FOR SDZ001-002.

WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 050327
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
827 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 818 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...WITH TROF
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN WYOMING. COMPACT SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. SHORTWAVE CROSSES WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT...AND
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH SHORT WINDOW OF FAVORABLE FORCING SHOULD BRING SNOW
SHOWERS INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING/FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
0-2KM RH/WIND AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES GIVE UPSLOPE AREAS OF
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS/BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS 4-6 HOUR PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENT TO POPS/QPF/SNOW FOR BETTER CHANCE OF UPSLOPE SNOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST
SK...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND A
TROF STRETCHING SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS LARGE SCALE TROF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION...WITH A RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MT AND WESTERN WY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SOME
LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MT...EASTERN WY...AND NOW
THE BLACK HILLS...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PCPN IS REACHING THE
GROUND AT THIS POINT. CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND WESTERN SD LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH LIGHT WEST OR SOUTHWEST WINDS IN MOST
AREAS...THOUGH A BIT BREEZY OVER PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS.

SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...
BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE BEAR LODGE MTS AND NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE AN
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES AS WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCED
SNOWFALL DEVELOPS. ELSEWHERE...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PCPN SHOULD
REMAIN LOW...WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AS
THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHEAST MT AND ND TONIGHT AND DRAG
THE TROF THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST SD. THE TROF
WILL HELP TO MIX SOME MILDER AIR ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE ON
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN BACK TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE
MILDER SIDE OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY
AND INTO FAVORED AREAS OF THE BLACK HILLS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

FAST ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...SUPPORTING PERIODIC IMPULSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. FORECAST MODELS DO SUGGEST MASSIVE RIDGING OVER WESTERN NOAM
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN PAC.
HOWEVER...ACTIVE RIDGE TOPPING FLOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST GIVEN THE SE
BIAS TO THE ARCTIC COLD BUBBLE OVER INTERIOR CANADA...SUPPORTING
CLIPPERS INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE THE REGION ON THE
EDGE OF FAST FLOW ALOFT...WITH SOME INFLUENCE FROM EACH PASSING
IMPULSE. SEMI-DRY NW FLOW WILL SUPPORT LOW PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...WHERE TERRAIN FORCING
WILL BE IN PLACE. PERHAPS THE BIGGEST INFLUENCE FROM THIS PATTERN
WILL BE WINDY CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ESP SUN. EXCELLENT
SETUP FOR HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY AS STAUNCH PRESSURE RISES
IN A CAA REGIME WITH LINKED FAST LL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. NAM BUFR
PROGS ARE SUPPORTING 65-70 KNOTS AROUND H7. EVEN IF ONLY MODEST
MIXING ENSUES SUN...WINDS OF 30-40 MPH WITH GUSTS ABOVE 60 LOOK
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE NE PART OF THE FA.
STRONG FLOW ALSO LOOKS TO MIX DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN BH WHICH
WOULD BE THE CASE GIVEN STEEP LL LAPSE RATES. HAVE BUMPED WINDS UP
FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...AFTER MILD CONDS FRI AND SOMEWHAT
SAT...COOLER CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED SUN-MON...BEFORE MILD CONDS
RETURN AGAIN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 818 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST WYOMING/FAR
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS FRIDAY MORNING. IFR CIGS/LIFR VSBY WITH THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...7





000
FXUS63 KUNR 050327
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
827 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 818 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...WITH TROF
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN WYOMING. COMPACT SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. SHORTWAVE CROSSES WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT...AND
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH SHORT WINDOW OF FAVORABLE FORCING SHOULD BRING SNOW
SHOWERS INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING/FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
0-2KM RH/WIND AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES GIVE UPSLOPE AREAS OF
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS/BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS 4-6 HOUR PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENT TO POPS/QPF/SNOW FOR BETTER CHANCE OF UPSLOPE SNOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST
SK...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND A
TROF STRETCHING SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS LARGE SCALE TROF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION...WITH A RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MT AND WESTERN WY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SOME
LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MT...EASTERN WY...AND NOW
THE BLACK HILLS...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PCPN IS REACHING THE
GROUND AT THIS POINT. CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND WESTERN SD LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH LIGHT WEST OR SOUTHWEST WINDS IN MOST
AREAS...THOUGH A BIT BREEZY OVER PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS.

SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...
BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE BEAR LODGE MTS AND NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE AN
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES AS WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCED
SNOWFALL DEVELOPS. ELSEWHERE...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PCPN SHOULD
REMAIN LOW...WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AS
THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHEAST MT AND ND TONIGHT AND DRAG
THE TROF THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST SD. THE TROF
WILL HELP TO MIX SOME MILDER AIR ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE ON
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN BACK TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE
MILDER SIDE OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY
AND INTO FAVORED AREAS OF THE BLACK HILLS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

FAST ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...SUPPORTING PERIODIC IMPULSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. FORECAST MODELS DO SUGGEST MASSIVE RIDGING OVER WESTERN NOAM
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN PAC.
HOWEVER...ACTIVE RIDGE TOPPING FLOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST GIVEN THE SE
BIAS TO THE ARCTIC COLD BUBBLE OVER INTERIOR CANADA...SUPPORTING
CLIPPERS INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE THE REGION ON THE
EDGE OF FAST FLOW ALOFT...WITH SOME INFLUENCE FROM EACH PASSING
IMPULSE. SEMI-DRY NW FLOW WILL SUPPORT LOW PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...WHERE TERRAIN FORCING
WILL BE IN PLACE. PERHAPS THE BIGGEST INFLUENCE FROM THIS PATTERN
WILL BE WINDY CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ESP SUN. EXCELLENT
SETUP FOR HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY AS STAUNCH PRESSURE RISES
IN A CAA REGIME WITH LINKED FAST LL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. NAM BUFR
PROGS ARE SUPPORTING 65-70 KNOTS AROUND H7. EVEN IF ONLY MODEST
MIXING ENSUES SUN...WINDS OF 30-40 MPH WITH GUSTS ABOVE 60 LOOK
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE NE PART OF THE FA.
STRONG FLOW ALSO LOOKS TO MIX DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN BH WHICH
WOULD BE THE CASE GIVEN STEEP LL LAPSE RATES. HAVE BUMPED WINDS UP
FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...AFTER MILD CONDS FRI AND SOMEWHAT
SAT...COOLER CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED SUN-MON...BEFORE MILD CONDS
RETURN AGAIN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 818 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST WYOMING/FAR
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS FRIDAY MORNING. IFR CIGS/LIFR VSBY WITH THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...7




000
FXUS63 KUNR 042200
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
300 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST
SK...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND A
TROF STRETCHING SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS LARGE SCALE TROF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION...WITH A RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MT AND WESTERN WY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SOME
LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MT...EASTERN WY...AND NOW
THE BLACK HILLS...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PCPN IS REACHING THE
GROUND AT THIS POINT. CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND WESTERN SD LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH LIGHT WEST OR SOUTHWEST WINDS IN MOST
AREAS...THOUGH A BIT BREEZY OVER PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS.

SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...
BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE BEAR LODGE MTS AND NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE AN
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES AS WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCED
SNOWFALL DEVELOPS. ELSEWHERE...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PCPN SHOULD
REMAIN LOW...WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AS
THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHEAST MT AND ND TONIGHT AND DRAG
THE TROF THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST SD. THE TROF
WILL HELP TO MIX SOME MILDER AIR ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE ON
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN BACK TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE
MILDER SIDE OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY
AND INTO FAVORED AREAS OF THE BLACK HILLS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

FAST ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...SUPPORTING PERIODIC IMPULSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. FORECAST MODELS DO SUGGEST MASSIVE RIDGING OVER WESTERN NOAM
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN PAC.
HOWEVER...ACTIVE RIDGE TOPPING FLOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST GIVEN THE SE
BIAS TO THE ARCTIC COLD BUBBLE OVER INTERIOR CANADA...SUPPORTING
CLIPPERS INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE THE REGION ON THE
EDGE OF FAST FLOW ALOFT...WITH SOME INFLUENCE FROM EACH PASSING
IMPULSE. SEMI-DRY NW FLOW WILL SUPPORT LOW PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...WHERE TERRAIN FORCING
WILL BE IN PLACE. PERHAPS THE BIGGEST INFLUENCE FROM THIS PATTERN
WILL BE WINDY CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ESP SUN. EXCELLENT
SETUP FOR HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY AS STAUNCH PRESSURE RISES
IN A CAA REGIME WITH LINKED FAST LL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. NAM BUFR
PROGS ARE SUPPORTING 65-70 KNOTS AROUND H7. EVEN IF ONLY MODEST
MIXING ENSUES SUN...WINDS OF 30-40 MPH WITH GUSTS ABOVE 60 LOOK
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE NE PART OF THE FA.
STRONG FLOW ALSO LOOKS TO MIX DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN BH WHICH
WOULD BE THE CASE GIVEN STEEP LL LAPSE RATES. HAVE BUMPED WINDS UP
FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...AFTER MILD CONDS FRI AND SOMEWHAT
SAT...COOLER CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED SUN-MON...BEFORE MILD CONDS
RETURN AGAIN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK WAVE
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WITH ISOLD MVFR CONDS. HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY FRI MORNING BEHIND
A SFC TROUGH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC





000
FXUS63 KUNR 041821
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1121 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS A TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AREA...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. STRONG NORTH TO
SOUTH JET IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING AT
THE MOMENT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS WITH A WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA. TEMPERATURES
AT 2AM ARE IN THE TEENS...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PUSH INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY INCREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TOPS
THE RIDGE AND APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
DECENT MIXING OF WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 30S...WITH THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK
HILLS NEAR 40 DEGREES DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

TONIGHT...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS STILL
LOOKING TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY WHERE THE
SNOW SHOWERS PASS...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE
FAVORED AREAS OF THE NORTHERN HILLS. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF PASSES THROUGH.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BRINGING
WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

A FAST MOVING UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE NRN ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY...WITH THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE TROF BRINGING MILD TEMPS
TO THE REGION. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TROF WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH
THE NRN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR -SN. SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN WINDY AND COOLER...WITH MOST AREAS DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW -SHSN
IN THE BLKHLS. THE STRONG NW WINDS ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ANOTHER WINDY DAY ON MONDAY ALONG WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR -SN MAINLY
AROUND THE BLKHLS. WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID
WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK WAVE
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WITH ISOLD MVFR CONDS. HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY FRI MORNING BEHIND
A SFC TROUGH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 041821
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1121 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS A TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AREA...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. STRONG NORTH TO
SOUTH JET IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING AT
THE MOMENT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS WITH A WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA. TEMPERATURES
AT 2AM ARE IN THE TEENS...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PUSH INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY INCREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TOPS
THE RIDGE AND APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
DECENT MIXING OF WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 30S...WITH THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK
HILLS NEAR 40 DEGREES DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

TONIGHT...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS STILL
LOOKING TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY WHERE THE
SNOW SHOWERS PASS...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE
FAVORED AREAS OF THE NORTHERN HILLS. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF PASSES THROUGH.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BRINGING
WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

A FAST MOVING UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE NRN ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY...WITH THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE TROF BRINGING MILD TEMPS
TO THE REGION. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TROF WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH
THE NRN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR -SN. SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN WINDY AND COOLER...WITH MOST AREAS DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW -SHSN
IN THE BLKHLS. THE STRONG NW WINDS ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ANOTHER WINDY DAY ON MONDAY ALONG WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR -SN MAINLY
AROUND THE BLKHLS. WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID
WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK WAVE
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WITH ISOLD MVFR CONDS. HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY FRI MORNING BEHIND
A SFC TROUGH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC





000
FXUS63 KUNR 041821
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1121 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS A TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AREA...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. STRONG NORTH TO
SOUTH JET IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING AT
THE MOMENT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS WITH A WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA. TEMPERATURES
AT 2AM ARE IN THE TEENS...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PUSH INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY INCREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TOPS
THE RIDGE AND APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
DECENT MIXING OF WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 30S...WITH THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK
HILLS NEAR 40 DEGREES DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

TONIGHT...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS STILL
LOOKING TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY WHERE THE
SNOW SHOWERS PASS...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE
FAVORED AREAS OF THE NORTHERN HILLS. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF PASSES THROUGH.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BRINGING
WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

A FAST MOVING UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE NRN ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY...WITH THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE TROF BRINGING MILD TEMPS
TO THE REGION. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TROF WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH
THE NRN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR -SN. SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN WINDY AND COOLER...WITH MOST AREAS DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW -SHSN
IN THE BLKHLS. THE STRONG NW WINDS ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ANOTHER WINDY DAY ON MONDAY ALONG WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR -SN MAINLY
AROUND THE BLKHLS. WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID
WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK WAVE
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WITH ISOLD MVFR CONDS. HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY FRI MORNING BEHIND
A SFC TROUGH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC





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