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000
FXUS63 KUNR 272312
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
512 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS
THE DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT. WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY FIXED AS THE CURRENT NW PAC MID LEVEL
IMPULSE ROUNDS THE RIDGE AND HEADS TOWARD THE REGION MONDAY. QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE
TOPPING IMPULSE WILL REFLECT LL POS THETA-E ADV AT THE BASE OF AN
ADVECTING EML AND POSSIBLY SUPPORT ISOLD SHRA/TS MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SW HALF.

TONIGHT...LINGERING BL CLOUDS OVER THE NE THROUGH EAST WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING...WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING 4-5 KFT CLOUDS ACROSS
SCENTRAL SD THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SLACKENING WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT COOL CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOW IN THE 50S AND UPPER 40S EXPECTED...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS.

MONDAY...SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE OF THE REGION WITH WINDS VEERING
EASTERLY. RIDGE TOPPING IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX WILL ADVECT
INTO NORTHERN WY MON AFTERNOON SUPPORTING TS DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE
FA. THIS IMPULSE WILL SHIFT ESE INTO THE FA MONDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING ISOLD CONVECTION SW HALF AS A LL POS THETA-E ADV REGIME
DEVELOPS. POSSIBLE TS CLUSTERS /MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN/ MAY PUSH
INTO THE WESTERN FA EARLY EVENING...WITH OTHER ELEVATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT SW HALF. IN ADDITION...THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES UPPER
TROUGH MAY SUPPORT SOME ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN
COLLOCATION OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION WITH LL POS THETA-E ADV.
HENCE...CARRIED LOW POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT NE WY THROUGH
SCENTRAL SD...MAINLY ON THE NORTHERN GRADIENT OF H7 THETA-E.
OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM ACROSS THE WRN
CONUS...WITH WEAK NW FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. A SERIES OF
UPPER WAVE WILL DRIFT ACROSS ID/WY/ERN CO TUE TO WED. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES OF STORMS TO NE WY INTO SW SD TUE/TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE BLKHLS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 511 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 271956
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
156 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT. WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY FIXED AS THE CURRENT
NW PAC MID LEVEL IMPULSE ROUNDS THE RIDGE AND HEADS TOWARD THE
REGION MONDAY. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE TOPPING IMPULSE WILL REFLECT LL POS THETA-E ADV
AT THE BASE OF AN ADVECTING EML AND POSSIBLY SUPPORT ISOLD SHRA/TS
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SW HALF.

TONIGHT...LINGERING BL CLOUDS OVER THE NE THROUGH EAST WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING...WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING 4-5 KFT CLOUDS ACROSS
SCENTRAL SD THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SLACKENING WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT COOL CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOW IN THE 50S AND UPPER 40S EXPECTED...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS.

MONDAY...SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE OF THE REGION WITH WINDS VEERING
EASTERLY. RIDGE TOPPING IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX WILL ADVECT
INTO NORTHERN WY MON AFTERNOON SUPPORTING TS DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE
FA. THIS IMPULSE WILL SHIFT ESE INTO THE FA MONDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING ISOLD CONVECTION SW HALF AS A LL POS THETA-E ADV REGIME
DEVELOPS. POSSIBLE TS CLUSTERS /MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN/ MAY PUSH
INTO THE WESTERN FA EARLY EVENING...WITH OTHER ELEVATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT SW HALF. IN ADDITION...THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES UPPER
TROUGH MAY SUPPORT SOME ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN
COLLOCATION OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION WITH LL POS THETA-E ADV.
HENCE...CARRIED LOW POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT NE WY THROUGH
SCENTRAL SD...MAINLY ON THE NORTHERN GRADIENT OF H7 THETA-E.
OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM ACROSS THE WRN
CONUS...WITH WEAK NW FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. A SERIES OF
UPPER WAVE WILL DRIFT ACROSS ID/WY/ERN CO TUE TO WED. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES OF STORMS TO NE WY INTO SW SD TUE/TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE BLKHLS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KUNR 271956
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
156 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT. WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY FIXED AS THE CURRENT
NW PAC MID LEVEL IMPULSE ROUNDS THE RIDGE AND HEADS TOWARD THE
REGION MONDAY. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE TOPPING IMPULSE WILL REFLECT LL POS THETA-E ADV
AT THE BASE OF AN ADVECTING EML AND POSSIBLY SUPPORT ISOLD SHRA/TS
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SW HALF.

TONIGHT...LINGERING BL CLOUDS OVER THE NE THROUGH EAST WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING...WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING 4-5 KFT CLOUDS ACROSS
SCENTRAL SD THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SLACKENING WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT COOL CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOW IN THE 50S AND UPPER 40S EXPECTED...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS.

MONDAY...SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE OF THE REGION WITH WINDS VEERING
EASTERLY. RIDGE TOPPING IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX WILL ADVECT
INTO NORTHERN WY MON AFTERNOON SUPPORTING TS DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE
FA. THIS IMPULSE WILL SHIFT ESE INTO THE FA MONDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING ISOLD CONVECTION SW HALF AS A LL POS THETA-E ADV REGIME
DEVELOPS. POSSIBLE TS CLUSTERS /MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN/ MAY PUSH
INTO THE WESTERN FA EARLY EVENING...WITH OTHER ELEVATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT SW HALF. IN ADDITION...THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES UPPER
TROUGH MAY SUPPORT SOME ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN
COLLOCATION OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION WITH LL POS THETA-E ADV.
HENCE...CARRIED LOW POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT NE WY THROUGH
SCENTRAL SD...MAINLY ON THE NORTHERN GRADIENT OF H7 THETA-E.
OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM ACROSS THE WRN
CONUS...WITH WEAK NW FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. A SERIES OF
UPPER WAVE WILL DRIFT ACROSS ID/WY/ERN CO TUE TO WED. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES OF STORMS TO NE WY INTO SW SD TUE/TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE BLKHLS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13








000
FXUS63 KUNR 271742
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1142 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH JET STREAK FROM TOP OF
RIDGE OVER SD INTO BASE OF UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MN. SURFACE
RIDGE OVER MT...WITH A WEAK TROF DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN ND...SOME STRATUS BEHIND IT MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWESTERN SD
THIS MORNING. RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING AREA DRY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE RIDGE FROM UT-WY AND INTO NE. CAPE
INCREASES OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD CORNER MON
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WILL REMAIN WELL UNDER 500 J/KG
WITH CIN LT 100 J/KG...WHILE THETA-E RIDGE PUSHES NORTHWARD...SO
INCREASED POPS FOR THOSE ZONES. FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER CAA AS
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WINDS SWITCH TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN
TODAY...AND TONIGHT AS WEAK RETURN FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN FOR
THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR
110 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO
BREAK THROUGH AND PRODUCE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY
AFFECTING SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THE BLKHLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...13








000
FXUS63 KUNR 271742
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1142 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH JET STREAK FROM TOP OF
RIDGE OVER SD INTO BASE OF UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MN. SURFACE
RIDGE OVER MT...WITH A WEAK TROF DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN ND...SOME STRATUS BEHIND IT MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWESTERN SD
THIS MORNING. RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING AREA DRY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE RIDGE FROM UT-WY AND INTO NE. CAPE
INCREASES OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD CORNER MON
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WILL REMAIN WELL UNDER 500 J/KG
WITH CIN LT 100 J/KG...WHILE THETA-E RIDGE PUSHES NORTHWARD...SO
INCREASED POPS FOR THOSE ZONES. FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER CAA AS
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WINDS SWITCH TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN
TODAY...AND TONIGHT AS WEAK RETURN FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN FOR
THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR
110 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO
BREAK THROUGH AND PRODUCE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY
AFFECTING SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THE BLKHLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KUNR 271133
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
533 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH JET STREAK FROM TOP OF
RIDGE OVER SD INTO BASE OF UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MN. SURFACE
RIDGE OVER MT...WITH A WEAK TROF DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN ND...SOME STRATUS BEHIND IT MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWESTERN SD
THIS MORNING. RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING AREA DRY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE RIDGE FROM UT-WY AND INTO NE. CAPE
INCREASES OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD CORNER MON
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WILL REMAIN WELL UNDER 500 J/KG
WITH CIN LT 100 J/KG...WHILE THETA-E RIDGE PUSHES NORTHWARD...SO
INCREASED POPS FOR THOSE ZONES. FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER CAA AS
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WINDS SWITCH TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN
TODAY...AND TONIGHT AS WEAK RETURN FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN FOR
THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR
110 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO
BREAK THROUGH AND PRODUCE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY
AFFECTING SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THE BLKHLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER








000
FXUS63 KUNR 271133
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
533 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH JET STREAK FROM TOP OF
RIDGE OVER SD INTO BASE OF UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MN. SURFACE
RIDGE OVER MT...WITH A WEAK TROF DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN ND...SOME STRATUS BEHIND IT MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWESTERN SD
THIS MORNING. RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING AREA DRY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE RIDGE FROM UT-WY AND INTO NE. CAPE
INCREASES OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD CORNER MON
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WILL REMAIN WELL UNDER 500 J/KG
WITH CIN LT 100 J/KG...WHILE THETA-E RIDGE PUSHES NORTHWARD...SO
INCREASED POPS FOR THOSE ZONES. FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER CAA AS
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WINDS SWITCH TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN
TODAY...AND TONIGHT AS WEAK RETURN FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN FOR
THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR
110 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO
BREAK THROUGH AND PRODUCE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY
AFFECTING SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THE BLKHLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER







000
FXUS63 KUNR 270851
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
251 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH JET STREAK FROM TOP OF
RIDGE OVER SD INTO BASE OF UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MN. SURFACE
RIDGE OVER MT...WITH A WEAK TROF DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN ND...SOME STRATUS BEHIND IT MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWESTERN SD
THIS MORNING. RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING AREA DRY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE RIDGE FROM UT-WY AND INTO NE. CAPE
INCREASES OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD CORNER MON
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WILL REMAIN WELL UNDER 500 J/KG
WITH CIN LT 100 J/KG...WHILE THETA-E RIDGE PUSHES NORTHWARD...SO
INCREASED POPS FOR THOSE ZONES. FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER CAA AS
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WINDS SWITCH TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN
TODAY...AND TONIGHT AS WEAK RETURN FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN FOR
THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR
110 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO
BREAK THROUGH AND PRODUCE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY
AFFECTING SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THE BLKHLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER








000
FXUS63 KUNR 270851
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
251 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH JET STREAK FROM TOP OF
RIDGE OVER SD INTO BASE OF UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MN. SURFACE
RIDGE OVER MT...WITH A WEAK TROF DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN ND...SOME STRATUS BEHIND IT MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWESTERN SD
THIS MORNING. RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING AREA DRY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE RIDGE FROM UT-WY AND INTO NE. CAPE
INCREASES OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD CORNER MON
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WILL REMAIN WELL UNDER 500 J/KG
WITH CIN LT 100 J/KG...WHILE THETA-E RIDGE PUSHES NORTHWARD...SO
INCREASED POPS FOR THOSE ZONES. FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER CAA AS
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WINDS SWITCH TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN
TODAY...AND TONIGHT AS WEAK RETURN FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN FOR
THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR
110 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO
BREAK THROUGH AND PRODUCE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY
AFFECTING SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THE BLKHLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER







000
FXUS63 KUNR 270523
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1123 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING ONGOING AS A STRONG COMPACT UPPER LEVEL
LOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT SE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE PERIOD WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REMAINING IN THE NEUTRAL SINK ZONE. THIS WILL SUPPORT SFC RIDGING
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY WX. STACKED FAST MOMENTUM FIELDS ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ADVECTING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE SUPPORT
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE SD PLAINS SUNDAY...LESS SO THAN
TODAY. HAVE TWEAK WINDS UP SOME FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESP
SCENTRAL SD WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. WEAK CAA WILL CEASE TONIGHT WITH NEUTRAL TEMP
ADV THROUGH SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY...JUST BELOW CLIMO NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD SETUP FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH VALLEY AREAS ESP SEEING COOL MINS. LOWS
THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL...AVERAGING
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...ESP OVER NE WY.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MAIN AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CONTDVD. NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES
CROSSING THROUGH...MAINLY TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE AN OVERALL
DRY EXTENDED IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE
BLKHLS LATER NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 270523
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1123 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING ONGOING AS A STRONG COMPACT UPPER LEVEL
LOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT SE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE PERIOD WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REMAINING IN THE NEUTRAL SINK ZONE. THIS WILL SUPPORT SFC RIDGING
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY WX. STACKED FAST MOMENTUM FIELDS ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ADVECTING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE SUPPORT
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE SD PLAINS SUNDAY...LESS SO THAN
TODAY. HAVE TWEAK WINDS UP SOME FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESP
SCENTRAL SD WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. WEAK CAA WILL CEASE TONIGHT WITH NEUTRAL TEMP
ADV THROUGH SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY...JUST BELOW CLIMO NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD SETUP FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH VALLEY AREAS ESP SEEING COOL MINS. LOWS
THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL...AVERAGING
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...ESP OVER NE WY.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MAIN AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CONTDVD. NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES
CROSSING THROUGH...MAINLY TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE AN OVERALL
DRY EXTENDED IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE
BLKHLS LATER NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 262319
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
519 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING ONGOING AS A STRONG COMPACT UPPER LEVEL
LOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT SE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE PERIOD WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REMAINING IN THE NEUTRAL SINK ZONE. THIS WILL SUPPORT SFC RIDGING
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY WX. STACKED FAST MOMENTUM FIELDS ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ADVECTING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE SUPPORT
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE SD PLAINS SUNDAY...LESS SO THAN
TODAY. HAVE TWEAK WINDS UP SOME FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESP
SCENTRAL SD WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. WEAK CAA WILL CEASE TONIGHT WITH NEUTRAL TEMP
ADV THROUGH SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY...JUST BELOW CLIMO NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD SETUP FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH VALLEY AREAS ESP SEEING COOL MINS. LOWS
THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL...AVERAGING
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...ESP OVER NE WY.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MAIN AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CONTDVD. NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES
CROSSING THROUGH...MAINLY TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE AN OVERALL
DRY EXTENDED IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE
BLKHLS LATER NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 519 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012>014.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 261953
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
153 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING ONGOING AS A STRONG COMPACT
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT SE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE PERIOD WITH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REMAINING IN THE NEUTRAL SINK ZONE. THIS WILL
SUPPORT SFC RIDGING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY WX. STACKED FAST
MOMENTUM FIELDS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ADVECTING UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE SUPPORT BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE SD PLAINS
SUNDAY...LESS SO THAN TODAY. HAVE TWEAK WINDS UP SOME FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ESP SCENTRAL SD WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. WEAK CAA WILL CEASE TONIGHT WITH
NEUTRAL TEMP ADV THROUGH SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY...JUST BELOW CLIMO NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S. CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD SETUP FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH VALLEY AREAS ESP SEEING COOL MINS. LOWS
THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL...AVERAGING
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...ESP OVER NE WY.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MAIN AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CONTDVD. NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES
CROSSING THROUGH...MAINLY TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE AN OVERALL
DRY EXTENDED IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE
BLKHLS LATER NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012>014.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13








000
FXUS63 KUNR 261953
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
153 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING ONGOING AS A STRONG COMPACT
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT SE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE PERIOD WITH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REMAINING IN THE NEUTRAL SINK ZONE. THIS WILL
SUPPORT SFC RIDGING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY WX. STACKED FAST
MOMENTUM FIELDS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ADVECTING UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE SUPPORT BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE SD PLAINS
SUNDAY...LESS SO THAN TODAY. HAVE TWEAK WINDS UP SOME FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ESP SCENTRAL SD WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. WEAK CAA WILL CEASE TONIGHT WITH
NEUTRAL TEMP ADV THROUGH SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY...JUST BELOW CLIMO NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S. CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD SETUP FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH VALLEY AREAS ESP SEEING COOL MINS. LOWS
THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL...AVERAGING
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...ESP OVER NE WY.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MAIN AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CONTDVD. NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES
CROSSING THROUGH...MAINLY TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE AN OVERALL
DRY EXTENDED IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE
BLKHLS LATER NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012>014.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KUNR 261746
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1146 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 744 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

STRONG COMPACT UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN FRINGE AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG LL MOMENTUM FIELDS WILL GRAZE THE NW SD PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...TIMING WITH PEAK DIURNAL MIXING. HAVE UPDATED WINDS
THERE AND ISSUED A WIND ADV FOR MUCH OF THE NW SD PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS ZIPPING ALONG ZONAL FLOW...AND WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN SD THIS MORNING. SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD
W/ TROF NORTHWARD ALONG MISSOURI RIVER. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF TROF EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE MOVED INTO EAST
RIVER. ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP A THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WILL LOWER POPS OVER THAT AREA FOR THE
MORNING. STRATUS AND FOG ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROF...BUT WOULD
BE BRIEF AS DEWPOINTS ARE MUCH LOWER BEHIND IT. AS DEEP UPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN SASK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...
AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER
FORECAST AREA TRANSITIONS FROM CYCLONIC TO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...
SHIFTING WEAK VORTICITY EASTWARD AND BRINGING DRIER AIR. SURFACE
RIDGE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS OVER NORTHWESTERN SD TODAY. WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA WITH CAA...GOOD MIXING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE MOMENTUM TRANSFER NEAR 40KT. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE COOLER THRU SUNDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER
PLAINS...AND WINDS SWITCH FROM NW TO NE.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE 3 TO 7
DAY PERIOD. THE MAIN AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAINING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CONTDVD. NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES
CROSSING THROUGH...MAINLY TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS PERIODICALLY...MAINLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL A DRY EXTENDED PERIOD IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MVFR CIGS OVER SCNTRL SD WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012>014.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JC
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KUNR 261746
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1146 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 744 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

STRONG COMPACT UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN FRINGE AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG LL MOMENTUM FIELDS WILL GRAZE THE NW SD PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...TIMING WITH PEAK DIURNAL MIXING. HAVE UPDATED WINDS
THERE AND ISSUED A WIND ADV FOR MUCH OF THE NW SD PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS ZIPPING ALONG ZONAL FLOW...AND WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN SD THIS MORNING. SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD
W/ TROF NORTHWARD ALONG MISSOURI RIVER. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF TROF EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE MOVED INTO EAST
RIVER. ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP A THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WILL LOWER POPS OVER THAT AREA FOR THE
MORNING. STRATUS AND FOG ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROF...BUT WOULD
BE BRIEF AS DEWPOINTS ARE MUCH LOWER BEHIND IT. AS DEEP UPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN SASK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...
AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER
FORECAST AREA TRANSITIONS FROM CYCLONIC TO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...
SHIFTING WEAK VORTICITY EASTWARD AND BRINGING DRIER AIR. SURFACE
RIDGE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS OVER NORTHWESTERN SD TODAY. WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA WITH CAA...GOOD MIXING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE MOMENTUM TRANSFER NEAR 40KT. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE COOLER THRU SUNDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER
PLAINS...AND WINDS SWITCH FROM NW TO NE.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE 3 TO 7
DAY PERIOD. THE MAIN AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAINING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CONTDVD. NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES
CROSSING THROUGH...MAINLY TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS PERIODICALLY...MAINLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL A DRY EXTENDED PERIOD IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MVFR CIGS OVER SCNTRL SD WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012>014.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JC
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...13








000
FXUS63 KUNR 261347
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
747 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 744 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

STRONG COMPACT UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN FRINGE AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG LL MOMENTUM FIELDS WILL GRAZE THE NW SD PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...TIMING WITH PEAK DIURNAL MIXING. HAVE UPDATED WINDS
THERE AND ISSUED A WIND ADV FOR MUCH OF THE NW SD PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS ZIPPING ALONG ZONAL FLOW...AND WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN SD THIS MORNING. SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD
W/ TROF NORTHWARD ALONG MISSOURI RIVER. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF TROF EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE MOVED INTO EAST
RIVER. ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP A THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WILL LOWER POPS OVER THAT AREA FOR THE
MORNING. STRATUS AND FOG ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROF...BUT WOULD
BE BRIEF AS DEWPOINTS ARE MUCH LOWER BEHIND IT. AS DEEP UPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN SASK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...
AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER
FORECAST AREA TRANSITIONS FROM CYCLONIC TO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...
SHIFTING WEAK VORTICITY EASTWARD AND BRINGING DRIER AIR. SURFACE
RIDGE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS OVER NORTHWESTERN SD TODAY. WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA WITH CAA...GOOD MIXING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE MOMENTUM TRANSFER NEAR 40KT. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE COOLER THRU SUNDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER
PLAINS...AND WINDS SWITCH FROM NW TO NE.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE 3 TO 7
DAY PERIOD. THE MAIN AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAINING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CONTDVD. NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES
CROSSING THROUGH...MAINLY TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS PERIODICALLY...MAINLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL A DRY EXTENDED PERIOD IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AN AREA OF LOW ST/BR HAS PUSHED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH... FM VTN TO NORTH
OF PHP. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING
UNDER FULL SUN. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ001-002-012>014.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JC
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER







000
FXUS63 KUNR 261139
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
539 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS ZIPPING ALONG ZONAL FLOW...AND WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN SD THIS MORNING. SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD
W/ TROF NORTHWARD ALONG MISSOURI RIVER. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF TROF EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE MOVED INTO EAST
RIVER. ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP A THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WILL LOWER POPS OVER THAT AREA FOR THE
MORNING. STRATUS AND FOG ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROF...BUT WOULD
BE BRIEF AS DEWPOINTS ARE MUCH LOWER BEHIND IT. AS DEEP UPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN SASK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...
AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER
FORECAST AREA TRANISTIONS FROM CYCLONIC TO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...
SHIFTING WEAK VORTICITY EASTWARD AND BRINGING DRIER AIR. SURFACE
RIDGE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS OVER NORTHWESTERN SD TODAY. WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA WITH CAA...GOOD MIXING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE MOMENTUM TRANSFER NEAR 40KT. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE COOLER THRU SUNDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER
PLAINS...AND WINDS SWITCH FROM NW TO NE.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE 3 TO 7
DAY PERIOD. THE MAIN AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAINING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CONTDVD. NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES
CROSSING THROUGH...MAINLY TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS PERIODICALLY...MAINLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL A DRY EXTENDED PERIOD IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AN AREA OF LOW ST/BR HAS PUSHED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH... FM VTN TO NORTH OF PHP. THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BURN OFF EARLYT HIS MORNING UNDER FULL
SUN. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER








000
FXUS63 KUNR 261139
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
539 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS ZIPPING ALONG ZONAL FLOW...AND WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN SD THIS MORNING. SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD
W/ TROF NORTHWARD ALONG MISSOURI RIVER. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF TROF EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE MOVED INTO EAST
RIVER. ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP A THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WILL LOWER POPS OVER THAT AREA FOR THE
MORNING. STRATUS AND FOG ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROF...BUT WOULD
BE BRIEF AS DEWPOINTS ARE MUCH LOWER BEHIND IT. AS DEEP UPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN SASK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...
AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER
FORECAST AREA TRANISTIONS FROM CYCLONIC TO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...
SHIFTING WEAK VORTICITY EASTWARD AND BRINGING DRIER AIR. SURFACE
RIDGE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS OVER NORTHWESTERN SD TODAY. WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA WITH CAA...GOOD MIXING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE MOMENTUM TRANSFER NEAR 40KT. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE COOLER THRU SUNDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER
PLAINS...AND WINDS SWITCH FROM NW TO NE.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE 3 TO 7
DAY PERIOD. THE MAIN AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAINING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CONTDVD. NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES
CROSSING THROUGH...MAINLY TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS PERIODICALLY...MAINLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL A DRY EXTENDED PERIOD IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AN AREA OF LOW ST/BR HAS PUSHED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH... FM VTN TO NORTH OF PHP. THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BURN OFF EARLYT HIS MORNING UNDER FULL
SUN. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER







000
FXUS63 KUNR 260905
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
305 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS ZIPPING ALONG ZONAL FLOW...AND WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN SD THIS MORNING. SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD
W/ TROF NORTHWARD ALONG MISSOURI RIVER. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF TROF EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE MOVED INTO EAST
RIVER. ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP A THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WILL LOWER POPS OVER THAT AREA FOR THE
MORNING. STRATUS AND FOG ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROF...BUT WOULD
BE BRIEF AS DEWPOINTS ARE MUCH LOWER BEHIND IT. AS DEEP UPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN SASK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...
AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER
FORECAST AREA TRANISTIONS FROM CYCLONIC TO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...
SHIFTING WEAK VORTICITY EASTWARD AND BRINGING DRIER AIR. SURFACE
RIDGE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS OVER NORTHWESTERN SD TODAY. WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA WITH CAA...GOOD MIXING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE MOMENTUM TRANSFER NEAR 40KT. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE COOLER THRU SUNDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER
PLAINS...AND WINDS SWITCH FROM NW TO NE.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE 3 TO 7
DAY PERIOD. THE MAIN AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAINING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CONTDVD. NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES
CROSSING THROUGH...MAINLY TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS PERIODICALLY...MAINLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL A DRY EXTENDED PERIOD IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER








000
FXUS63 KUNR 260905
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
305 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS ZIPPING ALONG ZONAL FLOW...AND WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN SD THIS MORNING. SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD
W/ TROF NORTHWARD ALONG MISSOURI RIVER. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF TROF EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE MOVED INTO EAST
RIVER. ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP A THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WILL LOWER POPS OVER THAT AREA FOR THE
MORNING. STRATUS AND FOG ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROF...BUT WOULD
BE BRIEF AS DEWPOINTS ARE MUCH LOWER BEHIND IT. AS DEEP UPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN SASK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...
AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER
FORECAST AREA TRANISTIONS FROM CYCLONIC TO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...
SHIFTING WEAK VORTICITY EASTWARD AND BRINGING DRIER AIR. SURFACE
RIDGE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS OVER NORTHWESTERN SD TODAY. WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA WITH CAA...GOOD MIXING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE MOMENTUM TRANSFER NEAR 40KT. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE COOLER THRU SUNDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER
PLAINS...AND WINDS SWITCH FROM NW TO NE.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE 3 TO 7
DAY PERIOD. THE MAIN AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAINING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CONTDVD. NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES
CROSSING THROUGH...MAINLY TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS PERIODICALLY...MAINLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL A DRY EXTENDED PERIOD IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER







000
FXUS63 KUNR 260455
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1055 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

WEAK SFC RIDGE OVER THE REGION IS SUPPORTING CLEAR
SKIES AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. POTENT NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVECT/PROPAGATE SE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY VEERING NW. NORTHERN STREAM
CLOSED UPPER VORTEX WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SE TONIGHT AND PARTIALLY PHASE
WITH A WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SW
CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SUPPORTING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS MAINLY OVER
SCENTRAL SD. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE FA SAT
MORNING AS A  REFLECTED SFC LOW PUSHES INT THE GREAT LAKES.
CAA/PRESSURE RISES/AND STRONG LL FLOW WITH DEEP MIXING WILL SUPPORT
A BREEZY DAY SAT...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...ESP ACROSS THE
NW HALF AS ANOTHER SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

TONIGHT...REFLECTED LL POS THETA-E ADV PER VEERING LL FLOW WILL
SUPPORT CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SE HALF...ESP LATE
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH LIFT FROM PASSING IMPULSE WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...JET DYNAMIC FORCING FROM A PASSING JET STREAK SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO COMPENSATE FOR THIS...ESP IN THE FAR SE. RETAINED A POP
MENTION...HIGHEST OVER TRIPP COUNTY. MUCAPE VALUES AOA 1500 J/KG IN
THE FAR SE COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A ROTATING STORM OR
TWO...ESP CLOSER TO DAWN WHEN THE BEST OVERLAP OF FORCING WILL BE IN
PLACE...THE TIMING OF WHICH HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK IN LATEST GUIDANCE
OUTPUT. HENCE...HAVE TRENDED HIGHER POPS AFTER 12Z IN THE FAR
SE...WITH A DOWNTREND LATE MORNING.

SAT...LINGERING ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY LATE MORNING IN THE SE.
HOWEVER...LATEST NAM/NMM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A FEW STORMS COULD
LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON EXTREME SE. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE
AFTERNOON DRY THERE. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
WITH WEAK CAA ENSUING...ESP THE NW. DEEP MIXING PER CLEAR SKIES AND
DECENT PGF ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THE
SD PLAINS...ESP THE NW PORTION. A WIND ADV MAY BE NEEDED THERE IF
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SAT...MAINLY NW AREAS. COOL CONDITIONS FORECAST SAT NIGHT WITH DRIER
AIR/CLEAR SKIES/AND SLACKENING WINDS SUPPORTING DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESP NW HALF. HAVE LOWERED MINS SOME.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE WRN CONUS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. WITH THE MAIN AXIS REMAINING WEST OF THE REGION...OVERALL
NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES CROSSING THROUGH.
THIS COULD BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS PERIODICALLY...BUT OVERALL
A DRY EXTENDED PERIOD IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LCL MVFR VSBY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...7








000
FXUS63 KUNR 260455
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1055 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

WEAK SFC RIDGE OVER THE REGION IS SUPPORTING CLEAR
SKIES AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. POTENT NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVECT/PROPAGATE SE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY VEERING NW. NORTHERN STREAM
CLOSED UPPER VORTEX WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SE TONIGHT AND PARTIALLY PHASE
WITH A WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SW
CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SUPPORTING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS MAINLY OVER
SCENTRAL SD. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE FA SAT
MORNING AS A  REFLECTED SFC LOW PUSHES INT THE GREAT LAKES.
CAA/PRESSURE RISES/AND STRONG LL FLOW WITH DEEP MIXING WILL SUPPORT
A BREEZY DAY SAT...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...ESP ACROSS THE
NW HALF AS ANOTHER SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

TONIGHT...REFLECTED LL POS THETA-E ADV PER VEERING LL FLOW WILL
SUPPORT CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SE HALF...ESP LATE
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH LIFT FROM PASSING IMPULSE WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...JET DYNAMIC FORCING FROM A PASSING JET STREAK SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO COMPENSATE FOR THIS...ESP IN THE FAR SE. RETAINED A POP
MENTION...HIGHEST OVER TRIPP COUNTY. MUCAPE VALUES AOA 1500 J/KG IN
THE FAR SE COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A ROTATING STORM OR
TWO...ESP CLOSER TO DAWN WHEN THE BEST OVERLAP OF FORCING WILL BE IN
PLACE...THE TIMING OF WHICH HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK IN LATEST GUIDANCE
OUTPUT. HENCE...HAVE TRENDED HIGHER POPS AFTER 12Z IN THE FAR
SE...WITH A DOWNTREND LATE MORNING.

SAT...LINGERING ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY LATE MORNING IN THE SE.
HOWEVER...LATEST NAM/NMM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A FEW STORMS COULD
LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON EXTREME SE. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE
AFTERNOON DRY THERE. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
WITH WEAK CAA ENSUING...ESP THE NW. DEEP MIXING PER CLEAR SKIES AND
DECENT PGF ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THE
SD PLAINS...ESP THE NW PORTION. A WIND ADV MAY BE NEEDED THERE IF
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SAT...MAINLY NW AREAS. COOL CONDITIONS FORECAST SAT NIGHT WITH DRIER
AIR/CLEAR SKIES/AND SLACKENING WINDS SUPPORTING DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESP NW HALF. HAVE LOWERED MINS SOME.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE WRN CONUS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. WITH THE MAIN AXIS REMAINING WEST OF THE REGION...OVERALL
NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES CROSSING THROUGH.
THIS COULD BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS PERIODICALLY...BUT OVERALL
A DRY EXTENDED PERIOD IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LCL MVFR VSBY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...7









000
FXUS63 KUNR 252026
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
226 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

WEAK SFC RIDGE OVER THE REGION IS SUPPORTING CLEAR
SKIES AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. POTENT NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVECT/PROPAGATE SE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY VEERING NW. NORTHERN STREAM
CLOSED UPPER VORTEX WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SE TONIGHT AND PARTIALLY PHASE
WITH A WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SW
CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SUPPORTING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS MAINLY OVER
SCENTRAL SD. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE FA SAT
MORNING AS A  REFLECTED SFC LOW PUSHES INT THE GREAT LAKES.
CAA/PRESSURE RISES/AND STRONG LL FLOW WITH DEEP MIXING WILL SUPPORT
A BREEZY DAY SAT...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...ESP ACROSS THE
NW HALF AS ANOTHER SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

TONIGHT...REFLECTED LL POS THETA-E ADV PER VEERING LL FLOW WILL
SUPPORT CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SE HALF...ESP LATE
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH LIFT FROM PASSING IMPULSE WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...JET DYNAMIC FORCING FROM A PASSING JET STREAK SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO COMPENSATE FOR THIS...ESP IN THE FAR SE. RETAINED A POP
MENTION...HIGHEST OVER TRIPP COUNTY. MUCAPE VALUES AOA 1500 J/KG IN
THE FAR SE COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A ROTATING STORM OR
TWO...ESP CLOSER TO DAWN WHEN THE BEST OVERLAP OF FORCING WILL BE IN
PLACE...THE TIMING OF WHICH HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK IN LATEST GUIDANCE
OUTPUT. HENCE...HAVE TRENDED HIGHER POPS AFTER 12Z IN THE FAR
SE...WITH A DOWNTREND LATE MORNING.

SAT...LINGERING ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY LATE MORNING IN THE SE.
HOWEVER...LATEST NAM/NMM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A FEW STORMS COULD
LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON EXTREME SE. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE
AFTERNOON DRY THERE. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
WITH WEAK CAA ENSUING...ESP THE NW. DEEP MIXING PER CLEAR SKIES AND
DECENT PGF ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THE
SD PLAINS...ESP THE NW PORTION. A WIND ADV MAY BE NEEDED THERE IF
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SAT...MAINLY NW AREAS. COOL CONDITIONS FORECAST SAT NIGHT WITH DRIER
AIR/CLEAR SKIES/AND SLACKENING WINDS SUPPORTING DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESP NW HALF. HAVE LOWERED MINS SOME.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE WRN CONUS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. WITH THE MAIN AXIS REMAINING WEST OF THE REGION...OVERALL
NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES CROSSING THROUGH.
THIS COULD BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS PERIODICALLY...BUT OVERALL
A DRY EXTENDED PERIOD IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13








000
FXUS63 KUNR 252026
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
226 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

WEAK SFC RIDGE OVER THE REGION IS SUPPORTING CLEAR
SKIES AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. POTENT NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVECT/PROPAGATE SE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY VEERING NW. NORTHERN STREAM
CLOSED UPPER VORTEX WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SE TONIGHT AND PARTIALLY PHASE
WITH A WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SW
CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SUPPORTING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS MAINLY OVER
SCENTRAL SD. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE FA SAT
MORNING AS A  REFLECTED SFC LOW PUSHES INT THE GREAT LAKES.
CAA/PRESSURE RISES/AND STRONG LL FLOW WITH DEEP MIXING WILL SUPPORT
A BREEZY DAY SAT...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...ESP ACROSS THE
NW HALF AS ANOTHER SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

TONIGHT...REFLECTED LL POS THETA-E ADV PER VEERING LL FLOW WILL
SUPPORT CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SE HALF...ESP LATE
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH LIFT FROM PASSING IMPULSE WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...JET DYNAMIC FORCING FROM A PASSING JET STREAK SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO COMPENSATE FOR THIS...ESP IN THE FAR SE. RETAINED A POP
MENTION...HIGHEST OVER TRIPP COUNTY. MUCAPE VALUES AOA 1500 J/KG IN
THE FAR SE COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A ROTATING STORM OR
TWO...ESP CLOSER TO DAWN WHEN THE BEST OVERLAP OF FORCING WILL BE IN
PLACE...THE TIMING OF WHICH HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK IN LATEST GUIDANCE
OUTPUT. HENCE...HAVE TRENDED HIGHER POPS AFTER 12Z IN THE FAR
SE...WITH A DOWNTREND LATE MORNING.

SAT...LINGERING ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY LATE MORNING IN THE SE.
HOWEVER...LATEST NAM/NMM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A FEW STORMS COULD
LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON EXTREME SE. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE
AFTERNOON DRY THERE. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
WITH WEAK CAA ENSUING...ESP THE NW. DEEP MIXING PER CLEAR SKIES AND
DECENT PGF ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THE
SD PLAINS...ESP THE NW PORTION. A WIND ADV MAY BE NEEDED THERE IF
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SAT...MAINLY NW AREAS. COOL CONDITIONS FORECAST SAT NIGHT WITH DRIER
AIR/CLEAR SKIES/AND SLACKENING WINDS SUPPORTING DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESP NW HALF. HAVE LOWERED MINS SOME.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE WRN CONUS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. WITH THE MAIN AXIS REMAINING WEST OF THE REGION...OVERALL
NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES CROSSING THROUGH.
THIS COULD BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS PERIODICALLY...BUT OVERALL
A DRY EXTENDED PERIOD IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KUNR 251718
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1118 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SHORTWAVE IS MOVING INTO EASTERN SD THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS. SKIES ARE CLEARING OVER FORECAST AREA...
WITH JUST A FEW LEFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AND SOME PATCHY LOWER
CLOUDS BETWEEN LEM AND D07. SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ND-
LOW OVER CENTRAL SD-SOUTHWESTWARD. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN
GUSTING TO 30-40 KT BRIEFLY BEHIND FRONT...AND WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MDT. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN
SD THIS MORNING...SO THE WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY...AND BRING
COOLER AIR TO THE AREA. FAST ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...BUT AS DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES...
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
WEEKEND. BROAD THETA-E RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG AN INVERTED TROF
NORTHWARD FROM LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN WY-NE PANHANDLE...BRUSHING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR WY FORECAST AREA AND CROSSING FAR
SOUTHERN SD TONIGHT. CURRENT MODELS HAVE DECREASED CAPE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS NORTH OF I-90. STILL SOME WEAK
CAA SATURDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A HIGH LATTITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN WITH FULL LATTITUDE RIDGING
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE MAPS FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THE RIDGE
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY BREAKING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT APPEARS TO BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. HOWEVER STABLE MID LEVELS AND
RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS MAY KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY SUBDUED.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ALL WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KUNR 251718
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1118 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SHORTWAVE IS MOVING INTO EASTERN SD THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS. SKIES ARE CLEARING OVER FORECAST AREA...
WITH JUST A FEW LEFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AND SOME PATCHY LOWER
CLOUDS BETWEEN LEM AND D07. SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ND-
LOW OVER CENTRAL SD-SOUTHWESTWARD. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN
GUSTING TO 30-40 KT BRIEFLY BEHIND FRONT...AND WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MDT. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN
SD THIS MORNING...SO THE WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY...AND BRING
COOLER AIR TO THE AREA. FAST ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...BUT AS DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES...
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
WEEKEND. BROAD THETA-E RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG AN INVERTED TROF
NORTHWARD FROM LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN WY-NE PANHANDLE...BRUSHING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR WY FORECAST AREA AND CROSSING FAR
SOUTHERN SD TONIGHT. CURRENT MODELS HAVE DECREASED CAPE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS NORTH OF I-90. STILL SOME WEAK
CAA SATURDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A HIGH LATTITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN WITH FULL LATTITUDE RIDGING
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE MAPS FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THE RIDGE
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY BREAKING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT APPEARS TO BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. HOWEVER STABLE MID LEVELS AND
RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS MAY KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY SUBDUED.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ALL WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...13








000
FXUS63 KUNR 251139
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
539 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SHORTWAVE IS MOVING INTO EASTERN SD THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS. SKIES ARE CLEARING OVER FORECAST AREA...
WITH JUST A FEW LEFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AND SOME PATCHY LOWER
CLOUDS BETWEEN LEM AND D07. SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ND-
LOW OVER CENTRAL SD-SOUTHWESTWARD. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN
GUSTING TO 30-40 KT BRIEFLY BEHIND FRONT...AND WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MDT. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN
SD THIS MORNING...SO THE WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY...AND BRING
COOLER AIR TO THE AREA. FAST ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...BUT AS DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES...
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
WEEKEND. BROAD THETA-E RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG AN INVERTED TROF
NORTHWARD FROM LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN WY-NE PANHANDLE...BRUSHING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR WY FORECAST AREA AND CROSSING FAR
SOUTHERN SD TONIGHT. CURRENT MODELS HAVE DECREASED CAPE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS NORTH OF I-90. STILL SOME WEAK
CAA SATURDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A HIGH LATTITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN WITH FULL LATTITUDE RIDGING
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE MAPS FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THE RIDGE
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY BREAKING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT APPEARS TO BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. HOWEVER STABLE MID LEVELS AND
RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS MAY KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY SUBDUED.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ALL WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT WILL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER







000
FXUS63 KUNR 251139
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
539 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SHORTWAVE IS MOVING INTO EASTERN SD THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS. SKIES ARE CLEARING OVER FORECAST AREA...
WITH JUST A FEW LEFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AND SOME PATCHY LOWER
CLOUDS BETWEEN LEM AND D07. SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ND-
LOW OVER CENTRAL SD-SOUTHWESTWARD. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN
GUSTING TO 30-40 KT BRIEFLY BEHIND FRONT...AND WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MDT. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN
SD THIS MORNING...SO THE WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY...AND BRING
COOLER AIR TO THE AREA. FAST ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...BUT AS DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES...
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
WEEKEND. BROAD THETA-E RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG AN INVERTED TROF
NORTHWARD FROM LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN WY-NE PANHANDLE...BRUSHING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR WY FORECAST AREA AND CROSSING FAR
SOUTHERN SD TONIGHT. CURRENT MODELS HAVE DECREASED CAPE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS NORTH OF I-90. STILL SOME WEAK
CAA SATURDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A HIGH LATTITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN WITH FULL LATTITUDE RIDGING
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE MAPS FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THE RIDGE
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY BREAKING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT APPEARS TO BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. HOWEVER STABLE MID LEVELS AND
RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS MAY KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY SUBDUED.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ALL WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT WILL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER








000
FXUS63 KUNR 250857
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
257 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SHORTWAVE IS MOVING INTO EASTERN SD THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS. SKIES ARE CLEARING OVER FORECAST AREA...
WITH JUST A FEW LEFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AND SOME PATCHY LOWER
CLOUDS BETWEEN LEM AND D07. SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ND-
LOW OVER CENTRAL SD-SOUTHWESTWARD. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN
GUSTING TO 30-40 KT BRIEFLY BEHIND FRONT...AND WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MDT. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN
SD THIS MORNING...SO THE WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY...AND BRING
COOLER AIR TO THE AREA. FAST ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...BUT AS DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES...
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
WEEKEND. BROAD THETA-E RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG AN INVERTED TROF
NORTHWARD FROM LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN WY-NE PANHANDLE...BRUSHING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR WY FORECAST AREA AND CROSSING FAR
SOUTHERN SD TONIGHT. CURRENT MODELS HAVE DECREASED CAPE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS NORTH OF I-90. STILL SOME WEAK
CAA SATURDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A HIGH LATTITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN WITH FULL LATTITUDE RIDGING
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE MAPS FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THE RIDGE
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY BREAKING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT APPEARS TO BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. HOWEVER STABLE MID LEVELS AND
RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS MAY KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY SUBDUED.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ALL WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SDZ001-002-
     012-013-025-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER







000
FXUS63 KUNR 250857
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
257 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SHORTWAVE IS MOVING INTO EASTERN SD THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS. SKIES ARE CLEARING OVER FORECAST AREA...
WITH JUST A FEW LEFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AND SOME PATCHY LOWER
CLOUDS BETWEEN LEM AND D07. SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ND-
LOW OVER CENTRAL SD-SOUTHWESTWARD. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN
GUSTING TO 30-40 KT BRIEFLY BEHIND FRONT...AND WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MDT. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN
SD THIS MORNING...SO THE WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY...AND BRING
COOLER AIR TO THE AREA. FAST ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...BUT AS DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES...
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
WEEKEND. BROAD THETA-E RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG AN INVERTED TROF
NORTHWARD FROM LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN WY-NE PANHANDLE...BRUSHING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR WY FORECAST AREA AND CROSSING FAR
SOUTHERN SD TONIGHT. CURRENT MODELS HAVE DECREASED CAPE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS NORTH OF I-90. STILL SOME WEAK
CAA SATURDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A HIGH LATTITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN WITH FULL LATTITUDE RIDGING
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE MAPS FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THE RIDGE
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY BREAKING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT APPEARS TO BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. HOWEVER STABLE MID LEVELS AND
RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS MAY KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY SUBDUED.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ALL WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SDZ001-002-
     012-013-025-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER








000
FXUS63 KUNR 250510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 744 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. SMALL COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA IS PRODUCING SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

OBSERVATIONS ACROSS MONTANA SHOW WIND GUSTS 40-50KT ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD FRONT. 00Z NAM/RUC BRING AREA OF 6+MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA 06Z-09Z...WITH 40KT BL WINDS. HAVE
INCREASED FORECAST WINDS BEHIND FRONT...AND ISSUED WIND ADVISORY
FOR 45-55MPH GUSTS. POSSIBLE THAT RAPID CITY AREA EXCEEDS 60
MPH...THOUGH TIMING OF DAY NOT AS FAVORABLE. MAY NEED TO UPGRADE
TO HIGH WIND WARNING DEPENDING ON UPSTREAM TRENDS. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS IT PUSHES EAST OF FORECAST
AREA

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ISSUED AT 216
PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

POTENT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ISOLD TS CHANCES TONIGHT
INTO THE FA. FAST WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SK/MB UPPER VORTEX WILL SUPPORT RENEWED SHRA/TS CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ADVANCES SE ACROSS CENTRAL SD.

A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON...LIMITING ISOLD TS CHANCES SAVE FOR PERHAPS OVER NE WY
WHERE HIGH TERRAIN MIX OUT OF THE CAP IS EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
STAUNCH CAPPING INVERSION BREAKS DOWN WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING
SE PER THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. FLOW EMBEDDED WEAK IMPULSES
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT NE OUT OF
WY AND SUPPORT ISOLD TS OVER MUCH OF THE FA...ESP THE SE HALF.
ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS A LL THETA-E RIDGE
SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTH...INDICATED WELL AT H7. GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES/AMPLE LL MOISTURE/AND BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT...HAVE CARRIED TS CHANCES THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT PERIOD.
ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS GIVEN
STEEP LL LAPSE RATES. SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CELLS.
DECENT PRESSURE RISES EXPECTED /4 MB PER HR/ WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT...LIKELY SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS
THE SD PLAINS IN CAA...ESP IN THE LEE OF THE BLACK HILLS. HAVE BUMPED
WINDS UP FOR THIS.

FRIDAY...DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY VIA BREEZY NW
WINDS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY MOST
PLACES...BUT STILL WARM WITH UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S EXPECTED. SK/MB
UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST...AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
POSITIONS OVER CENTRAL SD FRIDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IMPULSE
WILL SUPPORT A POS THETA-E ADV REGIME CENTERED AROUND H7 THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT SE HALF. LSA/UVM FROM THIS IMPULSE COUPLED WITH
LIFT AT AROUND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE EXPECTED JET STREAK
SHOULD SUPPORT A DECENT CHANCE FOR SCT TS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...ESP
OVER SCENTRAL SD. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN MU
CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS.
DID RAISE POPS TO 30 WITH SOME 40S FAR SE. OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY
COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH LOW 60S AND 50S COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL BEGIN TO
ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AGAIN
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. LCL MVFR VSBY WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. LIGHT
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-025-
     026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...7







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