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000
FXUS63 KUNR 250456
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1056 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH MEAN HEIGHT RISES PUSHING EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO WEAK IMPULSES WILL EJECT OUT OF
THE MEAN UPPER UPPER LOW...AND INTO THE REGION...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA...ESP FRI NIGHT. WAA
ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH. SFC PRESSURE FALLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH WINDS SHIFTING SE AND INCREASING PER LEE SIDE
TROUGHING...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW.

TONIGHT...WEAK ELEVATED THETA-E ADV /EVIDENCED WELL AT H7/ WILL
SUPPORT AN AREA OF WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE NW ZONES THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SPRINKLES WHEN COUPLED WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. DRY LL PROFILES AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE PRECLUDES A SHRA MENTION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S /40S
IN THE LEE OF THE BH/.

FRIDAY...SW FLOW WITH INCREASING ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL
EXPECTING ENOUGH INSOLATION TO SUPPORT FAIRLY DEEP MIXING...PUSHING
TEMPS INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES. DEEP MIXING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NE WY AND THE WESTERN BH WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH AN ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW ISOLD HIGH BASED SHRA THERE LATE FRI AFTERNOON. NAM LI/S
CERTAINLY HINT AT THIS AND A FEW HIRES MODELS DO GENERATE
CONVECTION. HAVE ADDED A LOW POP FOR THIS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHRA ARRIVE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY THE NW HALF...ALBEIT
ONLY ISOLD TO SCT. HAVE RETAINED A SHRA MENTION FRIDAY
NIGHT...SHIFTING THE HIGHER CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASING SFC
PRESSURE FALLS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A PARTIALLY MIXED BL THROUGH THE
NIGHT MOST PLACES...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED MOST PLACES. HAVE
BUMPED LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO WILL CREATE BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SD...BRINGING IN WARM AND MOIST
AIR. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INFLUX WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
GFS BRINGING IT INTO SD SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE ECMWF KEEPING IT
FARTHER SOUTH IN NEBRASKA. BOTH WRAP COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE CWA
BEHIND THE LOW...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR THE EVENT TO
BE MAINLY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ON THE SD PLAINS. SNOW IS MORE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS WHERE LOWS DIP BELOW
FREEZING SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. ALSO HAVE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL SD WHERE INSTABILITY IS
BETTER.

MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT WHEN THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD...ENERGY NORTHEAST OF IT WILL BE TAKEN IN AND CIRCULATED
BACK AROUND THE LOW...SLOWING IT DOWN AND ACTUALLY CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO RETROGRADE. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION AND COOL WEATHER MAY
STICK AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. OVERALL THE SYSTEM
LOOKS VERY MOIST...WITH PWATS 180-200% OF NORMAL. MANY AREAS MAY
RECEIVE MORE THAN AN INCH OF QPF...WITH THE BLACK HILLS POSSIBLY
RECEIVING MORE THAN TWO INCHES. ADDED MODERATE PRECIPITATION WORDING
IN THE WEATHER GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LCL MVFR VSBY
POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS63 KUNR 250456
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1056 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH MEAN HEIGHT RISES PUSHING EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO WEAK IMPULSES WILL EJECT OUT OF
THE MEAN UPPER UPPER LOW...AND INTO THE REGION...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA...ESP FRI NIGHT. WAA
ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH. SFC PRESSURE FALLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH WINDS SHIFTING SE AND INCREASING PER LEE SIDE
TROUGHING...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW.

TONIGHT...WEAK ELEVATED THETA-E ADV /EVIDENCED WELL AT H7/ WILL
SUPPORT AN AREA OF WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE NW ZONES THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SPRINKLES WHEN COUPLED WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. DRY LL PROFILES AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE PRECLUDES A SHRA MENTION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S /40S
IN THE LEE OF THE BH/.

FRIDAY...SW FLOW WITH INCREASING ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL
EXPECTING ENOUGH INSOLATION TO SUPPORT FAIRLY DEEP MIXING...PUSHING
TEMPS INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES. DEEP MIXING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NE WY AND THE WESTERN BH WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH AN ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW ISOLD HIGH BASED SHRA THERE LATE FRI AFTERNOON. NAM LI/S
CERTAINLY HINT AT THIS AND A FEW HIRES MODELS DO GENERATE
CONVECTION. HAVE ADDED A LOW POP FOR THIS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHRA ARRIVE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY THE NW HALF...ALBEIT
ONLY ISOLD TO SCT. HAVE RETAINED A SHRA MENTION FRIDAY
NIGHT...SHIFTING THE HIGHER CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASING SFC
PRESSURE FALLS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A PARTIALLY MIXED BL THROUGH THE
NIGHT MOST PLACES...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED MOST PLACES. HAVE
BUMPED LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO WILL CREATE BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SD...BRINGING IN WARM AND MOIST
AIR. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INFLUX WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
GFS BRINGING IT INTO SD SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE ECMWF KEEPING IT
FARTHER SOUTH IN NEBRASKA. BOTH WRAP COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE CWA
BEHIND THE LOW...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR THE EVENT TO
BE MAINLY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ON THE SD PLAINS. SNOW IS MORE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS WHERE LOWS DIP BELOW
FREEZING SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. ALSO HAVE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL SD WHERE INSTABILITY IS
BETTER.

MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT WHEN THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD...ENERGY NORTHEAST OF IT WILL BE TAKEN IN AND CIRCULATED
BACK AROUND THE LOW...SLOWING IT DOWN AND ACTUALLY CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO RETROGRADE. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION AND COOL WEATHER MAY
STICK AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. OVERALL THE SYSTEM
LOOKS VERY MOIST...WITH PWATS 180-200% OF NORMAL. MANY AREAS MAY
RECEIVE MORE THAN AN INCH OF QPF...WITH THE BLACK HILLS POSSIBLY
RECEIVING MORE THAN TWO INCHES. ADDED MODERATE PRECIPITATION WORDING
IN THE WEATHER GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LCL MVFR VSBY
POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...7








000
FXUS63 KUNR 242243
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
443 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH MEAN HEIGHT RISES PUSHING EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO WEAK IMPULSES WILL EJECT OUT OF
THE MEAN UPPER UPPER LOW...AND INTO THE REGION...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA...ESP FRI NIGHT. WAA
ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH. SFC PRESSURE FALLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH WINDS SHIFTING SE AND INCREASING PER LEE SIDE
TROUGHING...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW.

TONIGHT...WEAK ELEVATED THETA-E ADV /EVIDENCED WELL AT H7/ WILL
SUPPORT AN AREA OF WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE NW ZONES THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SPRINKLES WHEN COUPLED WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. DRY LL PROFILES AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE PRECLUDES A SHRA MENTION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S /40S
IN THE LEE OF THE BH/.

FRIDAY...SW FLOW WITH INCREASING ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL
EXPECTING ENOUGH INSOLATION TO SUPPORT FAIRLY DEEP MIXING...PUSHING
TEMPS INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES. DEEP MIXING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NE WY AND THE WESTERN BH WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH AN ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW ISOLD HIGH BASED SHRA THERE LATE FRI AFTERNOON. NAM LI/S
CERTAINLY HINT AT THIS AND A FEW HIRES MODELS DO GENERATE
CONVECTION. HAVE ADDED A LOW POP FOR THIS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHRA ARRIVE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY THE NW HALF...ALBEIT
ONLY ISOLD TO SCT. HAVE RETAINED A SHRA MENTION FRIDAY
NIGHT...SHIFTING THE HIGHER CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASING SFC
PRESSURE FALLS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A PARTIALLY MIXED BL THROUGH THE
NIGHT MOST PLACES...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED MOST PLACES. HAVE
BUMPED LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO WILL CREATE BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SD...BRINGING IN WARM AND MOIST
AIR. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INFLUX WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
GFS BRINGING IT INTO SD SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE ECMWF KEEPING IT
FARTHER SOUTH IN NEBRASKA. BOTH WRAP COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE CWA
BEHIND THE LOW...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR THE EVENT TO
BE MAINLY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ON THE SD PLAINS. SNOW IS MORE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS WHERE LOWS DIP BELOW
FREEZING SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. ALSO HAVE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL SD WHERE INSTABILITY IS
BETTER.

MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT WHEN THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD...ENERGY NORTHEAST OF IT WILL BE TAKEN IN AND CIRCULATED
BACK AROUND THE LOW...SLOWING IT DOWN AND ACTUALLY CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO RETROGRADE. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION AND COOL WEATHER MAY
STICK AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. OVERALL THE SYSTEM
LOOKS VERY MOIST...WITH PWATS 180-200% OF NORMAL. MANY AREAS MAY
RECEIVE MORE THAN AN INCH OF QPF...WITH THE BLACK HILLS POSSIBLY
RECEIVING MORE THAN TWO INCHES. ADDED MODERATE PRECIPITATION WORDING
IN THE WEATHER GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 441 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ265.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE







000
FXUS63 KUNR 242243
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
443 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH MEAN HEIGHT RISES PUSHING EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO WEAK IMPULSES WILL EJECT OUT OF
THE MEAN UPPER UPPER LOW...AND INTO THE REGION...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA...ESP FRI NIGHT. WAA
ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH. SFC PRESSURE FALLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH WINDS SHIFTING SE AND INCREASING PER LEE SIDE
TROUGHING...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW.

TONIGHT...WEAK ELEVATED THETA-E ADV /EVIDENCED WELL AT H7/ WILL
SUPPORT AN AREA OF WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE NW ZONES THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SPRINKLES WHEN COUPLED WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. DRY LL PROFILES AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE PRECLUDES A SHRA MENTION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S /40S
IN THE LEE OF THE BH/.

FRIDAY...SW FLOW WITH INCREASING ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL
EXPECTING ENOUGH INSOLATION TO SUPPORT FAIRLY DEEP MIXING...PUSHING
TEMPS INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES. DEEP MIXING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NE WY AND THE WESTERN BH WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH AN ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW ISOLD HIGH BASED SHRA THERE LATE FRI AFTERNOON. NAM LI/S
CERTAINLY HINT AT THIS AND A FEW HIRES MODELS DO GENERATE
CONVECTION. HAVE ADDED A LOW POP FOR THIS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHRA ARRIVE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY THE NW HALF...ALBEIT
ONLY ISOLD TO SCT. HAVE RETAINED A SHRA MENTION FRIDAY
NIGHT...SHIFTING THE HIGHER CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASING SFC
PRESSURE FALLS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A PARTIALLY MIXED BL THROUGH THE
NIGHT MOST PLACES...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED MOST PLACES. HAVE
BUMPED LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO WILL CREATE BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SD...BRINGING IN WARM AND MOIST
AIR. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INFLUX WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
GFS BRINGING IT INTO SD SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE ECMWF KEEPING IT
FARTHER SOUTH IN NEBRASKA. BOTH WRAP COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE CWA
BEHIND THE LOW...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR THE EVENT TO
BE MAINLY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ON THE SD PLAINS. SNOW IS MORE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS WHERE LOWS DIP BELOW
FREEZING SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. ALSO HAVE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL SD WHERE INSTABILITY IS
BETTER.

MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT WHEN THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD...ENERGY NORTHEAST OF IT WILL BE TAKEN IN AND CIRCULATED
BACK AROUND THE LOW...SLOWING IT DOWN AND ACTUALLY CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO RETROGRADE. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION AND COOL WEATHER MAY
STICK AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. OVERALL THE SYSTEM
LOOKS VERY MOIST...WITH PWATS 180-200% OF NORMAL. MANY AREAS MAY
RECEIVE MORE THAN AN INCH OF QPF...WITH THE BLACK HILLS POSSIBLY
RECEIVING MORE THAN TWO INCHES. ADDED MODERATE PRECIPITATION WORDING
IN THE WEATHER GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 441 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ265.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE








000
FXUS63 KUNR 242033
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
233 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH MEAN HEIGHT RISES PUSHING EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO WEAK IMPULSES WILL EJECT OUT OF
THE MEAN UPPER UPPER LOW...AND INTO THE REGION...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA...ESP FRI NIGHT. WAA
ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH. SFC PRESSURE FALLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH WINDS SHIFTING SE AND INCREASING PER LEE SIDE
TROUGHING...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW.

TONIGHT...WEAK ELEVATED THETA-E ADV /EVIDENCED WELL AT H7/ WILL
SUPPORT AN AREA OF WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE NW ZONES THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SPRINKLES WHEN COUPLED WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. DRY LL PROFILES AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE PRECLUDES A SHRA MENTION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S /40S
IN THE LEE OF THE BH/.

FRIDAY...SW FLOW WITH INCREASING ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL
EXPECTING ENOUGH INSOLATION TO SUPPORT FAIRLY DEEP MIXING...PUSHING
TEMPS INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES. DEEP MIXING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NE WY AND THE WESTERN BH WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH AN ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW ISOLD HIGH BASED SHRA THERE LATE FRI AFTERNOON. NAM LI/S
CERTAINLY HINT AT THIS AND A FEW HIRES MODELS DO GENERATE
CONVECTION. HAVE ADDED A LOW POP FOR THIS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHRA ARRIVE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY THE NW HALF...ALBEIT
ONLY ISOLD TO SCT. HAVE RETAINED A SHRA MENTION FRIDAY
NIGHT...SHIFTING THE HIGHER CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASING SFC
PRESSURE FALLS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A PARTIALLY MIXED BL THROUGH THE
NIGHT MOST PLACES...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED MOST PLACES. HAVE
BUMPED LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO WILL CREATE BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SD...BRINGING IN WARM AND MOIST
AIR. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INFLUX WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
GFS BRINGING IT INTO SD SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE ECMWF KEEPING IT
FARTHER SOUTH IN NEBRASKA. BOTH WRAP COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE CWA
BEHIND THE LOW...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR THE EVENT TO
BE MAINLY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ON THE SD PLAINS. SNOW IS MORE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS WHERE LOWS DIP BELOW
FREEZING SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. ALSO HAVE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL SD WHERE INSTABILITY IS
BETTER.

MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT WHEN THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD...ENERGY NORTHEAST OF IT WILL BE TAKEN IN AND CIRCULATED
BACK AROUND THE LOW...SLOWING IT DOWN AND ACTUALLY CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO RETROGRADE. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION AND COOL WEATHER MAY
STICK AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. OVERALL THE SYSTEM
LOOKS VERY MOIST...WITH PWATS 180-200% OF NORMAL. MANY AREAS MAY
RECEIVE MORE THAN AN INCH OF QPF...WITH THE BLACK HILLS POSSIBLY
RECEIVING MORE THAN TWO INCHES. ADDED MODERATE PRECIPITATION WORDING
IN THE WEATHER GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ265.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE








000
FXUS63 KUNR 242033
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
233 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH MEAN HEIGHT RISES PUSHING EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO WEAK IMPULSES WILL EJECT OUT OF
THE MEAN UPPER UPPER LOW...AND INTO THE REGION...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA...ESP FRI NIGHT. WAA
ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH. SFC PRESSURE FALLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH WINDS SHIFTING SE AND INCREASING PER LEE SIDE
TROUGHING...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW.

TONIGHT...WEAK ELEVATED THETA-E ADV /EVIDENCED WELL AT H7/ WILL
SUPPORT AN AREA OF WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE NW ZONES THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SPRINKLES WHEN COUPLED WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. DRY LL PROFILES AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE PRECLUDES A SHRA MENTION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S /40S
IN THE LEE OF THE BH/.

FRIDAY...SW FLOW WITH INCREASING ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL
EXPECTING ENOUGH INSOLATION TO SUPPORT FAIRLY DEEP MIXING...PUSHING
TEMPS INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES. DEEP MIXING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NE WY AND THE WESTERN BH WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH AN ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW ISOLD HIGH BASED SHRA THERE LATE FRI AFTERNOON. NAM LI/S
CERTAINLY HINT AT THIS AND A FEW HIRES MODELS DO GENERATE
CONVECTION. HAVE ADDED A LOW POP FOR THIS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHRA ARRIVE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY THE NW HALF...ALBEIT
ONLY ISOLD TO SCT. HAVE RETAINED A SHRA MENTION FRIDAY
NIGHT...SHIFTING THE HIGHER CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASING SFC
PRESSURE FALLS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A PARTIALLY MIXED BL THROUGH THE
NIGHT MOST PLACES...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED MOST PLACES. HAVE
BUMPED LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO WILL CREATE BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SD...BRINGING IN WARM AND MOIST
AIR. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INFLUX WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
GFS BRINGING IT INTO SD SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE ECMWF KEEPING IT
FARTHER SOUTH IN NEBRASKA. BOTH WRAP COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE CWA
BEHIND THE LOW...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR THE EVENT TO
BE MAINLY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ON THE SD PLAINS. SNOW IS MORE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS WHERE LOWS DIP BELOW
FREEZING SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. ALSO HAVE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL SD WHERE INSTABILITY IS
BETTER.

MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT WHEN THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD...ENERGY NORTHEAST OF IT WILL BE TAKEN IN AND CIRCULATED
BACK AROUND THE LOW...SLOWING IT DOWN AND ACTUALLY CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO RETROGRADE. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION AND COOL WEATHER MAY
STICK AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. OVERALL THE SYSTEM
LOOKS VERY MOIST...WITH PWATS 180-200% OF NORMAL. MANY AREAS MAY
RECEIVE MORE THAN AN INCH OF QPF...WITH THE BLACK HILLS POSSIBLY
RECEIVING MORE THAN TWO INCHES. ADDED MODERATE PRECIPITATION WORDING
IN THE WEATHER GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ265.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE









000
FXUS63 KUNR 241714
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1114 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
KS AND TO THE NORTH NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN
SK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF STRETCHING SOUTHWARD FROM SK
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. RIDGE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS INTO CENTRAL SD. TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH 40S TOWARD CENTRAL SD. WINDS ARE
MOSTLY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

EVEN WITH SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK. AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR A
COUPLE MORE DAYS BEFORE A WET AND COOLER STRETCH OF WEATHER DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVER WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN SK WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT FAIRLY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY TO WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MAX OUT IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS.
TEMPS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL APPROACH 70 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES WILL BE RATHER LOW THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES FORECAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
SOME FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED...SEE THE DISCUSSION
BELOW. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS
AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT IN...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY...AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BEHIND EXITING RIDGE. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL CLIP NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM NORTHEAST
WY INTO NORTHWESTERN SD. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE TOWARD FAR
NORTHWESTERN SD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS STRONG UPPER TROF WORKS INTO THE
ROCKIES...WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER ERN CO. STRONG ELY BL
TRANSPORT WILL RESULT IN MOISTENING LOW LEVELS AND A CHANCE FOR
TSTMS DURING THE AFTN ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY ROTATES NEWD AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH THERMAL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE. PCPN CHANCES THEN
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LOW FORMS
OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND DEEPENS AT IT MOVES EWD INTO THE
PLAINS. LATEST 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED THE UPPER LOW BACK A
BIT FURTHER NORTH...WHILE ALSO CONTINUING THE TREND OF SLOWING THE
SYSTEM DOWN. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW...WDSPRD PCPN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR CWFA BEGINNING
SATURDAY NITE AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY...WITH MANY AREAS
RECEIVING AN INCH OR MORE QPF. AND IF THE LOW DOES STALL A BIT AS
SOME GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING...PCPN COULD CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK.
THERMAL PROFILES DO SUGGEST A MAINLY RAIN EVENT AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NERN WY
AND THE BLKHLS. IF SNOW LEVELS DO LOWER ON THE PLAINS...IT WOULD
LIKELY NOT BE UNTIL MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR FINALLY WRAPS
INTO THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING
LIGHT THIS EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ265.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...POJORLIE









000
FXUS63 KUNR 240926
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
326 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
KS AND TO THE NORTH NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN
SK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF STRETCHING SOUTHWARD FROM SK
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. RIDGE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS INTO CENTRAL SD. TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH 40S TOWARD CENTRAL SD. WINDS ARE
MOSTLY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

EVEN WITH SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK. AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR A
COUPLE MORE DAYS BEFORE A WET AND COOLER STRETCH OF WEATHER DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVER WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN SK WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT FAIRLY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY TO WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MAX OUT IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS.
TEMPS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL APPROACH 70 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES WILL BE RATHER LOW THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES FORECAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
SOME FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED...SEE THE DISCUSSION
BELOW. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS
AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT IN...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY...AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BEHIND EXITING RIDGE. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL CLIP NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM NORTHEAST
WY INTO NORTHWESTERN SD. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE TOWARD FAR
NORTHWESTERN SD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS STRONG UPPER TROF WORKS INTO THE
ROCKIES...WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER ERN CO. STRONG ELY BL
TRANSPORT WILL RESULT IN MOISTENING LOW LEVELS AND A CHANCE FOR
TSTMS DURING THE AFTN ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY ROTATES NEWD AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH THERMAL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE. PCPN CHANCES THEN
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LOW FORMS
OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND DEEPENS AT IT MOVES EWD INTO THE
PLAINS. LATEST 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED THE UPPER LOW BACK A
BIT FURTHER NORTH...WHILE ALSO CONTINUING THE TREND OF SLOWING THE
SYSTEM DOWN. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW...WDSPRD PCPN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR CWFA BEGINNING
SATURDAY NITE AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY...WITH MANY AREAS
RECEIVING AN INCH OR MORE QPF. AND IF THE LOW DOES STALL A BIT AS
SOME GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING...PCPN COULD CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK.
THERMAL PROFILES DO SUGGEST A MAINLY RAIN EVENT AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NERN WY
AND THE BLKHLS. IF SNOW LEVELS DO LOWER ON THE PLAINS...IT WOULD
LIKELY NOT BE UNTIL MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR FINALLY WRAPS
INTO THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS AND DRY AIR TO THE AREA TODAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CAN BE EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE DRY AIR AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH MINIMUM VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT
ELSEWHERE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR SD FIRE ZONE 265 FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL BE IN THE EXTREME CATEGORY ACROSS MOST OF
THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ265.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 240926
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
326 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
KS AND TO THE NORTH NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN
SK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF STRETCHING SOUTHWARD FROM SK
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. RIDGE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING TO THE EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS INTO CENTRAL SD. TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH 40S TOWARD CENTRAL SD. WINDS ARE
MOSTLY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

EVEN WITH SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK. AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR A
COUPLE MORE DAYS BEFORE A WET AND COOLER STRETCH OF WEATHER DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVER WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN SK WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT FAIRLY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY TO WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MAX OUT IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS.
TEMPS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL APPROACH 70 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES WILL BE RATHER LOW THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES FORECAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
SOME FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED...SEE THE DISCUSSION
BELOW. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS
AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT IN...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY...AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BEHIND EXITING RIDGE. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL CLIP NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM NORTHEAST
WY INTO NORTHWESTERN SD. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE TOWARD FAR
NORTHWESTERN SD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS STRONG UPPER TROF WORKS INTO THE
ROCKIES...WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER ERN CO. STRONG ELY BL
TRANSPORT WILL RESULT IN MOISTENING LOW LEVELS AND A CHANCE FOR
TSTMS DURING THE AFTN ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY ROTATES NEWD AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH THERMAL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE. PCPN CHANCES THEN
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LOW FORMS
OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND DEEPENS AT IT MOVES EWD INTO THE
PLAINS. LATEST 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED THE UPPER LOW BACK A
BIT FURTHER NORTH...WHILE ALSO CONTINUING THE TREND OF SLOWING THE
SYSTEM DOWN. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW...WDSPRD PCPN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR CWFA BEGINNING
SATURDAY NITE AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY...WITH MANY AREAS
RECEIVING AN INCH OR MORE QPF. AND IF THE LOW DOES STALL A BIT AS
SOME GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING...PCPN COULD CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK.
THERMAL PROFILES DO SUGGEST A MAINLY RAIN EVENT AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NERN WY
AND THE BLKHLS. IF SNOW LEVELS DO LOWER ON THE PLAINS...IT WOULD
LIKELY NOT BE UNTIL MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR FINALLY WRAPS
INTO THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS AND DRY AIR TO THE AREA TODAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CAN BE EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE DRY AIR AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH MINIMUM VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT
ELSEWHERE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR SD FIRE ZONE 265 FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL BE IN THE EXTREME CATEGORY ACROSS MOST OF
THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ265.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...26








000
FXUS63 KUNR 240435
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1035 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL LET
WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL US...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ARE GRADUALLY
CLEARING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES CLOUDS EASTWARD. SURFACE TROUGH SITS
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS
WAY THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE TAKEN A LITTLE LONGER
THAN EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY...BUT HAVE FINALLY PICKED UP THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
SD.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW AND MOST OF THE ENERGY
NORTH OF OUR CWA. MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST
OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT ACROSS WESTERN
SD BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER WY/CO AND THE EXITING TROUGH.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TONED SPEEDS
DOWN. MAV IS SHOWING BARELY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...WITH THE MET UNDER CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK
A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY...BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN REANALYZE.
DECREASED WINDS IN THE GRIDS...ALTHOUGH THEY STILL MIGHT BE A LITTLE
TOO STRONG.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER
AIR AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 60S...50S IN THE HILLS. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH COOLER AIR NOW FILTERING IN SUNDAY. WDSPRD PCPN IS
STILL PROGGED TO BEGIN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS
SHOW UPPER LOW CROSSING THE COLORADO AREA SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY CROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SO NOT MUCH ACCESS TO A COLDER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY KEEP
PRECIP AS RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW...EXCEPT MAYBE DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SNOW. ECMWF/GFS AGREE
WITH LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ263>266.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...7








000
FXUS63 KUNR 240435
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1035 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL LET
WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL US...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ARE GRADUALLY
CLEARING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES CLOUDS EASTWARD. SURFACE TROUGH SITS
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS
WAY THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE TAKEN A LITTLE LONGER
THAN EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY...BUT HAVE FINALLY PICKED UP THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
SD.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW AND MOST OF THE ENERGY
NORTH OF OUR CWA. MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST
OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT ACROSS WESTERN
SD BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER WY/CO AND THE EXITING TROUGH.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TONED SPEEDS
DOWN. MAV IS SHOWING BARELY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...WITH THE MET UNDER CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK
A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY...BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN REANALYZE.
DECREASED WINDS IN THE GRIDS...ALTHOUGH THEY STILL MIGHT BE A LITTLE
TOO STRONG.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER
AIR AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 60S...50S IN THE HILLS. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH COOLER AIR NOW FILTERING IN SUNDAY. WDSPRD PCPN IS
STILL PROGGED TO BEGIN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS
SHOW UPPER LOW CROSSING THE COLORADO AREA SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY CROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SO NOT MUCH ACCESS TO A COLDER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY KEEP
PRECIP AS RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW...EXCEPT MAYBE DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SNOW. ECMWF/GFS AGREE
WITH LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ263>266.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS63 KUNR 232356
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
556 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL LET
WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL US...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ARE GRADUALLY
CLEARING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES CLOUDS EASTWARD. SURFACE TROUGH SITS
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS
WAY THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE TAKEN A LITTLE LONGER
THAN EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY...BUT HAVE FINALLY PICKED UP THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
SD.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW AND MOST OF THE ENERGY
NORTH OF OUR CWA. MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST
OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT ACROSS WESTERN
SD BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER WY/CO AND THE EXITING TROUGH.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TONED SPEEDS
DOWN. MAV IS SHOWING BARELY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...WITH THE MET UNDER CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK
A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY...BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN REANALYZE.
DECREASED WINDS IN THE GRIDS...ALTHOUGH THEY STILL MIGHT BE A LITTLE
TOO STRONG.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER
AIR AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 60S...50S IN THE HILLS. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH COOLER AIR NOW FILTERING IN SUNDAY. WDSPRD PCPN IS
STILL PROGGED TO BEGIN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS
SHOW UPPER LOW CROSSING THE COLORADO AREA SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY CROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SO NOT MUCH ACCESS TO A COLDER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY KEEP
PRECIP AS RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW...EXCEPT MAYBE DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SNOW. ECMWF/GFS AGREE
WITH LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING...AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ263>266.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS63 KUNR 232356
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
556 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL LET
WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL US...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ARE GRADUALLY
CLEARING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES CLOUDS EASTWARD. SURFACE TROUGH SITS
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS
WAY THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE TAKEN A LITTLE LONGER
THAN EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY...BUT HAVE FINALLY PICKED UP THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
SD.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW AND MOST OF THE ENERGY
NORTH OF OUR CWA. MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST
OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT ACROSS WESTERN
SD BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER WY/CO AND THE EXITING TROUGH.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TONED SPEEDS
DOWN. MAV IS SHOWING BARELY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...WITH THE MET UNDER CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK
A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY...BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN REANALYZE.
DECREASED WINDS IN THE GRIDS...ALTHOUGH THEY STILL MIGHT BE A LITTLE
TOO STRONG.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER
AIR AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 60S...50S IN THE HILLS. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH COOLER AIR NOW FILTERING IN SUNDAY. WDSPRD PCPN IS
STILL PROGGED TO BEGIN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS
SHOW UPPER LOW CROSSING THE COLORADO AREA SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY CROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SO NOT MUCH ACCESS TO A COLDER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY KEEP
PRECIP AS RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW...EXCEPT MAYBE DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SNOW. ECMWF/GFS AGREE
WITH LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING...AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ263>266.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...7








000
FXUS63 KUNR 232045
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
245 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL US...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ARE GRADUALLY
CLEARING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES CLOUDS EASTWARD. SURFACE TROUGH SITS
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS
WAY THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE TAKEN A LITTLE LONGER
THAN EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY...BUT HAVE FINALLY PICKED UP THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
SD.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW AND MOST OF THE ENERGY
NORTH OF OUR CWA. MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST
OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT ACROSS WESTERN
SD BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER WY/CO AND THE EXITING TROUGH.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TONED SPEEDS
DOWN. MAV IS SHOWING BARELY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...WITH THE MET UNDER CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK
A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY...BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN REANALYZE.
DECREASED WINDS IN THE GRIDS...ALTHOUGH THEY STILL MIGHT BE A LITTLE
TOO STRONG.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER
AIR AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 60S...50S IN THE HILLS. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH COOLER AIR NOW FILTERING IN SUNDAY. WDSPRD PCPN IS
STILL PROGGED TO BEGIN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS
SHOW UPPER LOW CROSSING THE COLORADO AREA SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY CROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SO NOT MUCH ACCESS TO A COLDER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY KEEP
PRECIP AS RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW...EXCEPT MAYBE DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SNOW. ECMWF/GFS AGREE
WITH LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BECOME VFR TOWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING...BUT THEN BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO THE AREA THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...A DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP TO
15 TO 20 PERCENT...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 263-266 COVERING THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ263>266.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...13









000
FXUS63 KUNR 232045
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
245 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL US...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ARE GRADUALLY
CLEARING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES CLOUDS EASTWARD. SURFACE TROUGH SITS
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS
WAY THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE TAKEN A LITTLE LONGER
THAN EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY...BUT HAVE FINALLY PICKED UP THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
SD.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW AND MOST OF THE ENERGY
NORTH OF OUR CWA. MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST
OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT ACROSS WESTERN
SD BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER WY/CO AND THE EXITING TROUGH.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TONED SPEEDS
DOWN. MAV IS SHOWING BARELY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...WITH THE MET UNDER CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK
A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY...BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN REANALYZE.
DECREASED WINDS IN THE GRIDS...ALTHOUGH THEY STILL MIGHT BE A LITTLE
TOO STRONG.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER
AIR AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 60S...50S IN THE HILLS. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH COOLER AIR NOW FILTERING IN SUNDAY. WDSPRD PCPN IS
STILL PROGGED TO BEGIN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS
SHOW UPPER LOW CROSSING THE COLORADO AREA SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY CROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SO NOT MUCH ACCESS TO A COLDER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY KEEP
PRECIP AS RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW...EXCEPT MAYBE DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SNOW. ECMWF/GFS AGREE
WITH LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BECOME VFR TOWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING...BUT THEN BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO THE AREA THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...A DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP TO
15 TO 20 PERCENT...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 263-266 COVERING THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ263>266.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...13








000
FXUS63 KUNR 231759
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1159 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS ARE
STARTING TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST
WYOMING...AND STILL EXPECT THEM TO BECOME WINDY THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH
SOME CLEARING SKIES WORKING INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING. RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH WEST AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
TWEAKED POPS AND SKY GRIDS...BUT REST OF FORECAST LOOKS FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST
MT...WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR NORTHEAST WY ZONES. WARM
FRONT STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS TROF MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST BC. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION
IS BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS...WITH REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
EARLIER OVER CENTRAL SD NOW. TEMPS ARE VERY MILD THIS
MORNING...WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND
NEB...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
PERKINS TO SHANNON COUNTIES.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER LOW REMAINING WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA...AS IT MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP US ON THE DRIER AND WINDY SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST PUSHES THROUGH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS EACH DAY. A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA TODAY AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR THE SAME AREAS TOMORROW AS WELL. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND
WESTERN SD THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SD EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDER WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA LATE TODAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
THOSE AREAS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S OVER NORTHEAST WY
AND THE BLACK HILLS...TO THE 70S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY THIS EVENING AND FAR NORTHWEST SD EARLY THURSDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM CLIPS THESE
AREAS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THURSDAY WILL BE A WINDY DAY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF SECONDARY LOW THAT
PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY. MILD
AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...50S OVER
THE BLACK HILLS. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL BE PLACE ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE NRN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH WDSPRD PCPN WORKING INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. LATEST 00Z RUNS
OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE NOW SHIFTING THE MAIN UPPER LOW FURTHER
SOUTH...WITH THE CONSENSUS TAKING THE LOW ACROSS KANSAS. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...TEMP PROFILES WOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COLD FOR OUR AREA AND
WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A RAIN EVENT VERSUS SNOW. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THE MODELS TREND BACK FURTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW THEN SNOW
CHANCES WOULD INCREASE. STAY TUNED AS MODEL SHIFTS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTN. A FEW HIGH
BASED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BRINGING LCL MVFR
VSBYS...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...13








000
FXUS63 KUNR 231759
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1159 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS ARE
STARTING TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST
WYOMING...AND STILL EXPECT THEM TO BECOME WINDY THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH
SOME CLEARING SKIES WORKING INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING. RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH WEST AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
TWEAKED POPS AND SKY GRIDS...BUT REST OF FORECAST LOOKS FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST
MT...WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR NORTHEAST WY ZONES. WARM
FRONT STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS TROF MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST BC. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION
IS BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS...WITH REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
EARLIER OVER CENTRAL SD NOW. TEMPS ARE VERY MILD THIS
MORNING...WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND
NEB...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
PERKINS TO SHANNON COUNTIES.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER LOW REMAINING WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA...AS IT MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP US ON THE DRIER AND WINDY SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST PUSHES THROUGH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS EACH DAY. A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA TODAY AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR THE SAME AREAS TOMORROW AS WELL. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND
WESTERN SD THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SD EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDER WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA LATE TODAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
THOSE AREAS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S OVER NORTHEAST WY
AND THE BLACK HILLS...TO THE 70S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY THIS EVENING AND FAR NORTHWEST SD EARLY THURSDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM CLIPS THESE
AREAS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THURSDAY WILL BE A WINDY DAY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF SECONDARY LOW THAT
PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY. MILD
AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...50S OVER
THE BLACK HILLS. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL BE PLACE ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE NRN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH WDSPRD PCPN WORKING INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. LATEST 00Z RUNS
OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE NOW SHIFTING THE MAIN UPPER LOW FURTHER
SOUTH...WITH THE CONSENSUS TAKING THE LOW ACROSS KANSAS. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...TEMP PROFILES WOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COLD FOR OUR AREA AND
WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A RAIN EVENT VERSUS SNOW. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THE MODELS TREND BACK FURTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW THEN SNOW
CHANCES WOULD INCREASE. STAY TUNED AS MODEL SHIFTS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTN. A FEW HIGH
BASED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BRINGING LCL MVFR
VSBYS...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KUNR 231606
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1006 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS ARE
STARTING TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST
WYOMING...AND STILL EXPECT THEM TO BECOME WINDY THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH
SOME CLEARING SKIES WORKING INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING. RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH WEST AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
TWEAKED POPS AND SKY GRIDS...BUT REST OF FORECAST LOOKS FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST
MT...WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR NORTHEAST WY ZONES. WARM
FRONT STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS TROF MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST BC. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION
IS BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS...WITH REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
EARLIER OVER CENTRAL SD NOW. TEMPS ARE VERY MILD THIS
MORNING...WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND
NEB...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
PERKINS TO SHANNON COUNTIES.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER LOW REMAINING WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA...AS IT MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP US ON THE DRIER AND WINDY SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST PUSHES THROUGH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS EACH DAY. A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA TODAY AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR THE SAME AREAS TOMORROW AS WELL. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND
WESTERN SD THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SD EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDER WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA LATE TODAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
THOSE AREAS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S OVER NORTHEAST WY
AND THE BLACK HILLS...TO THE 70S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY THIS EVENING AND FAR NORTHWEST SD EARLY THURSDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM CLIPS THESE
AREAS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THURSDAY WILL BE A WINDY DAY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF SECONDARY LOW THAT
PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY. MILD
AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...50S OVER
THE BLACK HILLS. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL BE PLACE ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE NRN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH WDSPRD PCPN WORKING INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. LATEST 00Z RUNS
OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE NOW SHIFTING THE MAIN UPPER LOW FURTHER
SOUTH...WITH THE CONSENSUS TAKING THE LOW ACROSS KANSAS. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...TEMP PROFILES WOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COLD FOR OUR AREA AND
WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A RAIN EVENT VERSUS SNOW. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THE MODELS TREND BACK FURTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW THEN SNOW
CHANCES WOULD INCREASE. STAY TUNED AS MODEL SHIFTS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTN. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR OVER NWRN AND WCNTRL SD WHERE GUSTS TO 40KTS ARE
EXPECTED. A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
BRINGING LCL MVFR VSBYS...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 231606
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1006 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS ARE
STARTING TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST
WYOMING...AND STILL EXPECT THEM TO BECOME WINDY THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH
SOME CLEARING SKIES WORKING INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING. RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH WEST AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
TWEAKED POPS AND SKY GRIDS...BUT REST OF FORECAST LOOKS FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST
MT...WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR NORTHEAST WY ZONES. WARM
FRONT STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS TROF MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST BC. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION
IS BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS...WITH REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
EARLIER OVER CENTRAL SD NOW. TEMPS ARE VERY MILD THIS
MORNING...WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND
NEB...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
PERKINS TO SHANNON COUNTIES.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER LOW REMAINING WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA...AS IT MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP US ON THE DRIER AND WINDY SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST PUSHES THROUGH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS EACH DAY. A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA TODAY AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR THE SAME AREAS TOMORROW AS WELL. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND
WESTERN SD THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SD EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDER WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA LATE TODAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
THOSE AREAS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S OVER NORTHEAST WY
AND THE BLACK HILLS...TO THE 70S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY THIS EVENING AND FAR NORTHWEST SD EARLY THURSDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM CLIPS THESE
AREAS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THURSDAY WILL BE A WINDY DAY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF SECONDARY LOW THAT
PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY. MILD
AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...50S OVER
THE BLACK HILLS. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL BE PLACE ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE NRN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH WDSPRD PCPN WORKING INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. LATEST 00Z RUNS
OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE NOW SHIFTING THE MAIN UPPER LOW FURTHER
SOUTH...WITH THE CONSENSUS TAKING THE LOW ACROSS KANSAS. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...TEMP PROFILES WOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COLD FOR OUR AREA AND
WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A RAIN EVENT VERSUS SNOW. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THE MODELS TREND BACK FURTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW THEN SNOW
CHANCES WOULD INCREASE. STAY TUNED AS MODEL SHIFTS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTN. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR OVER NWRN AND WCNTRL SD WHERE GUSTS TO 40KTS ARE
EXPECTED. A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
BRINGING LCL MVFR VSBYS...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
     026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON








000
FXUS63 KUNR 230925
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST
MT...WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR NORTHEAST WY ZONES. WARM
FRONT STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS TROF MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST BC. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION
IS BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS...WITH REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
EARLIER OVER CENTRAL SD NOW. TEMPS ARE VERY MILD THIS
MORNING...WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND
NEB...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
PERKINS TO SHANNON COUNTIES.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER LOW REMAINING WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA...AS IT MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP US ON THE DRIER AND WINDY SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST PUSHES THROUGH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS EACH DAY. A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA TODAY AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR THE SAME AREAS TOMORROW AS WELL. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND
WESTERN SD THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SD EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDER WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA LATE TODAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
THOSE AREAS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S OVER NORTHEAST WY
AND THE BLACK HILLS...TO THE 70S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY THIS EVENING AND FAR NORTHWEST SD EARLY THURSDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM CLIPS THESE
AREAS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THURSDAY WILL BE A WINDY DAY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF SECONDARY LOW THAT
PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY. MILD
AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...50S OVER
THE BLACK HILLS. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL BE PLACE ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE NRN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH WDSPRD PCPN WORKING INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. LATEST 00Z RUNS
OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE NOW SHIFTING THE MAIN UPPER LOW FURTHER
SOUTH...WITH THE CONSENSUS TAKING THE LOW ACROSS KANSAS. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...TEMP PROFILES WOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COLD FOR OUR AREA AND
WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A RAIN EVENT VERSUS SNOW. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THE MODELS TREND BACK FURTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW THEN SNOW
CHANCES WOULD INCREASE. STAY TUNED AS MODEL SHIFTS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTN. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR OVER NWRN AND WCNTRL SD WHERE GUSTS TO 40KTS ARE
EXPECTED. A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
BRINGING LCL MVFR VSBYS...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON








000
FXUS63 KUNR 222308
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
508 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL US...AND A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST. SURFACE
TROUGH/WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...CREATING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WY...MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST SD. TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 70S...WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S.

UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH THE
SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN SD BY 12Z. ML CAPE OF 200-500 J/KG
COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...BUT
LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY AND CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
ANYTHING SEVERE. LOCATION OF THE LOW INDICATES A POTENTIAL DRY SLOT
SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH
MOST PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN CROSSING THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRESSURE RISES OF 4-5 MB/3HR AND SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION
SUGGEST GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS INTO RAPID
CITY. MODELS INDICATE 25-30 KT WIND SPEEDS LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS...SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE USUAL WINDY SPOTS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TOMORROW DEPENDING ON
THE COLD FRONT...BUT HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 50S ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND NORTHWEST SD...TO THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. MAY BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIP WRAPS AROUND THE
LOW...BUT AGAIN NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
IN THE EVENING AND PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON THU AND FRI
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND TRANSITORY
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THERE COULD BE A FEW
-SHRA ACRS FAR NWRN SD THU MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN. VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGN THU DUE TO A TIGHT SFC PRESS GRAD.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM ALL AGREE IN SHOWING A VIGOROUS
UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES SAT/EARLY SUN AND INTO
THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS SUN/MON. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH LATEST THERMAL PROFILES BOOSTING
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPS SHOULD BECOME QUITE COLD...20 DEGREES OR MORE
BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS. THIS COULD LEAD TO ACCUMULATING
SNOW...MOST LIKELY OVER THE BLACK HILLS...BUT POSSIBLY ON THE PLAINS
AS WELL. AT THIS TIME IT REMAINS MUCH TO EARLY TO KNOW HOW MUCH SNOW
MIGHT ACCUMULATE AS THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK...STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 507 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE A FEW HIGH BASED
SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING CONTAINING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...7








000
FXUS63 KUNR 222308
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
508 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL US...AND A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST. SURFACE
TROUGH/WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...CREATING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WY...MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST SD. TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 70S...WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S.

UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH THE
SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN SD BY 12Z. ML CAPE OF 200-500 J/KG
COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...BUT
LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY AND CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
ANYTHING SEVERE. LOCATION OF THE LOW INDICATES A POTENTIAL DRY SLOT
SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH
MOST PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN CROSSING THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRESSURE RISES OF 4-5 MB/3HR AND SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION
SUGGEST GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS INTO RAPID
CITY. MODELS INDICATE 25-30 KT WIND SPEEDS LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS...SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE USUAL WINDY SPOTS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TOMORROW DEPENDING ON
THE COLD FRONT...BUT HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 50S ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND NORTHWEST SD...TO THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. MAY BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIP WRAPS AROUND THE
LOW...BUT AGAIN NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
IN THE EVENING AND PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON THU AND FRI
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND TRANSITORY
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THERE COULD BE A FEW
-SHRA ACRS FAR NWRN SD THU MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN. VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGN THU DUE TO A TIGHT SFC PRESS GRAD.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM ALL AGREE IN SHOWING A VIGOROUS
UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES SAT/EARLY SUN AND INTO
THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS SUN/MON. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH LATEST THERMAL PROFILES BOOSTING
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPS SHOULD BECOME QUITE COLD...20 DEGREES OR MORE
BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS. THIS COULD LEAD TO ACCUMULATING
SNOW...MOST LIKELY OVER THE BLACK HILLS...BUT POSSIBLY ON THE PLAINS
AS WELL. AT THIS TIME IT REMAINS MUCH TO EARLY TO KNOW HOW MUCH SNOW
MIGHT ACCUMULATE AS THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK...STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 507 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE A FEW HIGH BASED
SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING CONTAINING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS63 KUNR 222036
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
236 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL US...AND A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST. SURFACE
TROUGH/WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...CREATING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WY...MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST SD. TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 70S...WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S.

UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH THE
SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN SD BY 12Z. ML CAPE OF 200-500 J/KG
COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...BUT
LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY AND CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
ANYTHING SEVERE. LOCATION OF THE LOW INDICATES A POTENTIAL DRY SLOT
SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH
MOST PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN CROSSING THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRESSURE RISES OF 4-5 MB/3HR AND SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION
SUGGEST GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS INTO RAPID
CITY. MODELS INDICATE 25-30 KT WIND SPEEDS LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS...SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE USUAL WINDY SPOTS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TOMORROW DEPENDING ON
THE COLD FRONT...BUT HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 50S ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND NORTHWEST SD...TO THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. MAY BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIP WRAPS AROUND THE
LOW...BUT AGAIN NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
IN THE EVENING AND PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON THU AND FRI
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND TRANSITORY
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THERE COULD BE A FEW
-SHRA ACRS FAR NWRN SD THU MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN. VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGN THU DUE TO A TIGHT SFC PRESS GRAD.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM ALL AGREE IN SHOWING A VIGOROUS
UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES SAT/EARLY SUN AND INTO
THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS SUN/MON. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH LATEST THERMAL PROFILES BOOSTING
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPS SHOULD BECOME QUITE COLD...20 DEGREES OR MORE
BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS. THIS COULD LEAD TO ACCUMULATING
SNOW...MOST LIKELY OVER THE BLACK HILLS...BUT POSSIBLY ON THE PLAINS
AS WELL. AT THIS TIME IT REMAINS MUCH TO EARLY TO KNOW HOW MUCH SNOW
MIGHT ACCUMULATE AS THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK...STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE A FEW HIGH BASED
SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING CONTAINING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 222036
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
236 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL US...AND A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST. SURFACE
TROUGH/WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...CREATING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WY...MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST SD. TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 70S...WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S.

UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH THE
SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN SD BY 12Z. ML CAPE OF 200-500 J/KG
COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...BUT
LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY AND CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
ANYTHING SEVERE. LOCATION OF THE LOW INDICATES A POTENTIAL DRY SLOT
SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH
MOST PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN CROSSING THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRESSURE RISES OF 4-5 MB/3HR AND SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION
SUGGEST GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS INTO RAPID
CITY. MODELS INDICATE 25-30 KT WIND SPEEDS LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS...SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE USUAL WINDY SPOTS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TOMORROW DEPENDING ON
THE COLD FRONT...BUT HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 50S ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND NORTHWEST SD...TO THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. MAY BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIP WRAPS AROUND THE
LOW...BUT AGAIN NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
IN THE EVENING AND PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON THU AND FRI
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND TRANSITORY
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THERE COULD BE A FEW
-SHRA ACRS FAR NWRN SD THU MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN. VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGN THU DUE TO A TIGHT SFC PRESS GRAD.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM ALL AGREE IN SHOWING A VIGOROUS
UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES SAT/EARLY SUN AND INTO
THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS SUN/MON. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH LATEST THERMAL PROFILES BOOSTING
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPS SHOULD BECOME QUITE COLD...20 DEGREES OR MORE
BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS. THIS COULD LEAD TO ACCUMULATING
SNOW...MOST LIKELY OVER THE BLACK HILLS...BUT POSSIBLY ON THE PLAINS
AS WELL. AT THIS TIME IT REMAINS MUCH TO EARLY TO KNOW HOW MUCH SNOW
MIGHT ACCUMULATE AS THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK...STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE A FEW HIGH BASED
SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING CONTAINING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10








000
FXUS63 KUNR 221722
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1119 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DRIFT INTO THE CWA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND INCOMING LOW PRESSURE IS KEEPING
SOUTHERLY WINDS BREEZY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS HAVE
STARTED DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA...AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING SHOWERS ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z. EXPANDED POPS A LITTLE...BUT
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN ID. A WARM
FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE LOW ACROSS MT INTO WESTERN SD. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...WITH TROF AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE PACIFIC NW
COAST. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS NOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 40S...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
MOST LOCATIONS...BREEZY AT TIMES OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR
SOUTHWEST SD.

ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP BEFORE A COOLDOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPS TAKES PLACE AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE MINIMIZED IN MOST AREAS AS THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION WILL TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK AND KEEP US ON THE DRIER
AND WINDY SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY IN GENERAL...WITH THE MOST
SUN IN THE MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EAST DURING THE DAY...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT
THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MT AND STRENGTHEN
SOME...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER
THE DAKOTAS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM NORTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL SD BY THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED FROM BUFFALO...SOUTHEAST TO THE WINNER AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO NORTHERN SD
DURING THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA....WARMEST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD MOSTLY BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...STARTING OFF ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY AND SOUTHWEST SD AND MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER LOW...WITH
CAPE VALUES PROGGED NEAR OR BELOW 500 J/KG...BUT A STRONG STORM OR
TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN WY AND WESTERN SD LATE TODAY/EARLY EVENING. SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT AND
COULD HELP TO KEEP ACTIVITY GOING OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NORTHWEST
MT...WITH TROF COVERING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST
ALONG THE CANADIAN/MT BORDER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
REACHING SOUTHEAST SK/NORTHWEST ND AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST WY EARLY
WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN SD PLAINS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME
AREAS OF WESTERN SD...BUT STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THAT AT
THIS POINT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER NORTHEAST WY TO
THE UPPER 70S OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST WY EARLY IN THE DAY AND TOWARD
CENTRAL SD LATER IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT ARRIVES. LOOKS LIKE THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE MAIN THREAT
FOR STRONGER STORMS STAYING SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON THU AND FRI AS UPPER
LOW SHIFTS EWD ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE
CROSSES THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. COULD BE SOME -SHRA
ACRS THE WRN CWFA THU BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN. WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THU AS UPPER LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST EARLY IN
THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM ALL SHOW AN UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH
THE CNTRL ROCKIES SAT/EARLY SUN AND INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS
SUN/MON. WDSPRD PCPN LOOKING QUITE LIKELY BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...WITH LATEST THERMAL PROFILES BOOSTING CONFIDENCE THAT
TEMPS SHOULD BECOME QUITE COLD...20 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW AVERAGE
FOR HIGH TEMPS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT IT
REMAINS MUCH TOO EARLY TO KNOW HOW MUCH AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS/TSTMS
CONTAINING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...10










000
FXUS63 KUNR 221722
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1119 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DRIFT INTO THE CWA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND INCOMING LOW PRESSURE IS KEEPING
SOUTHERLY WINDS BREEZY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS HAVE
STARTED DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA...AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING SHOWERS ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z. EXPANDED POPS A LITTLE...BUT
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN ID. A WARM
FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE LOW ACROSS MT INTO WESTERN SD. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...WITH TROF AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE PACIFIC NW
COAST. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS NOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 40S...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
MOST LOCATIONS...BREEZY AT TIMES OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR
SOUTHWEST SD.

ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP BEFORE A COOLDOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPS TAKES PLACE AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE MINIMIZED IN MOST AREAS AS THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION WILL TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK AND KEEP US ON THE DRIER
AND WINDY SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY IN GENERAL...WITH THE MOST
SUN IN THE MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EAST DURING THE DAY...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT
THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MT AND STRENGTHEN
SOME...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER
THE DAKOTAS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM NORTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL SD BY THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED FROM BUFFALO...SOUTHEAST TO THE WINNER AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO NORTHERN SD
DURING THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA....WARMEST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD MOSTLY BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...STARTING OFF ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY AND SOUTHWEST SD AND MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER LOW...WITH
CAPE VALUES PROGGED NEAR OR BELOW 500 J/KG...BUT A STRONG STORM OR
TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN WY AND WESTERN SD LATE TODAY/EARLY EVENING. SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT AND
COULD HELP TO KEEP ACTIVITY GOING OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NORTHWEST
MT...WITH TROF COVERING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST
ALONG THE CANADIAN/MT BORDER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
REACHING SOUTHEAST SK/NORTHWEST ND AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST WY EARLY
WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN SD PLAINS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME
AREAS OF WESTERN SD...BUT STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THAT AT
THIS POINT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER NORTHEAST WY TO
THE UPPER 70S OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST WY EARLY IN THE DAY AND TOWARD
CENTRAL SD LATER IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT ARRIVES. LOOKS LIKE THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE MAIN THREAT
FOR STRONGER STORMS STAYING SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON THU AND FRI AS UPPER
LOW SHIFTS EWD ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE
CROSSES THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. COULD BE SOME -SHRA
ACRS THE WRN CWFA THU BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN. WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THU AS UPPER LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST EARLY IN
THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM ALL SHOW AN UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH
THE CNTRL ROCKIES SAT/EARLY SUN AND INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS
SUN/MON. WDSPRD PCPN LOOKING QUITE LIKELY BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...WITH LATEST THERMAL PROFILES BOOSTING CONFIDENCE THAT
TEMPS SHOULD BECOME QUITE COLD...20 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW AVERAGE
FOR HIGH TEMPS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT IT
REMAINS MUCH TOO EARLY TO KNOW HOW MUCH AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS/TSTMS
CONTAINING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...10











000
FXUS63 KUNR 221657
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1057 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DRIFT INTO THE CWA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND INCOMING LOW PRESSURE IS KEEPING
SOUTHERLY WINDS BREEZY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS HAVE
STARTED DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA...AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING SHOWERS ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z. EXPANDED POPS A LITTLE...BUT
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN ID. A WARM
FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE LOW ACROSS MT INTO WESTERN SD. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...WITH TROF AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE PACIFIC NW
COAST. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS NOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 40S...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
MOST LOCATIONS...BREEZY AT TIMES OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR
SOUTHWEST SD.

ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP BEFORE A COOLDOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPS TAKES PLACE AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE MINIMIZED IN MOST AREAS AS THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION WILL TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK AND KEEP US ON THE DRIER
AND WINDY SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY IN GENERAL...WITH THE MOST
SUN IN THE MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EAST DURING THE DAY...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT
THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MT AND STRENGTHEN
SOME...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER
THE DAKOTAS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM NORTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL SD BY THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED FROM BUFFALO...SOUTHEAST TO THE WINNER AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO NORTHERN SD
DURING THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA....WARMEST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD MOSTLY BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...STARTING OFF ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY AND SOUTHWEST SD AND MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER LOW...WITH
CAPE VALUES PROGGED NEAR OR BELOW 500 J/KG...BUT A STRONG STORM OR
TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN WY AND WESTERN SD LATE TODAY/EARLY EVENING. SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT AND
COULD HELP TO KEEP ACTIVITY GOING OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NORTHWEST
MT...WITH TROF COVERING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST
ALONG THE CANADIAN/MT BORDER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
REACHING SOUTHEAST SK/NORTHWEST ND AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST WY EARLY WEDNESDAY...
THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN SD PLAINS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
SOME AREAS OF WESTERN SD...BUT STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THAT AT THIS POINT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER
NORTHEAST WY TO THE UPPER 70S OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST WY EARLY IN
THE DAY AND TOWARD CENTRAL SD LATER IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES. LOOKS LIKE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE DRY
SLOT...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS
STAYING SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED.


&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON THU AND FRI AS UPPER
LOW SHIFTS EWD ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE
CROSSES THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. COULD BE SOME -SHRA
ACRS THE WRN CWFA THU BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN. WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THU AS UPPER LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST EARLY IN
THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM ALL SHOW AN UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH
THE CNTRL ROCKIES SAT/EARLY SUN AND INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS
SUN/MON. WDSPRD PCPN LOOKING QUITE LIKELY BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...WITH LATEST THERMAL PROFILES BOOSTING CONFIDENCE THAT
TEMPS SHOULD BECOME QUITE COLD...20 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW AVERAGE
FOR HIGH TEMPS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT IT
REMAINS MUCH TOO EARLY TO KNOW HOW MUCH AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SOME HIGH BASED
SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTAINING BRIEF MVFR VSBYS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 220915
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
315 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PREESURE OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN ID. A WARM
FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE LOW ACROSS MT INTO WESTERN SD. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...WITH TROF AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE PACIFIC NW
COAST. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS NOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 40S...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
MOST LOCATIONS...BREEZY AT TIMES OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR
SOUTHWEST SD.

ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP BEFORE A COOLDOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPS TAKES PLACE AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE MINIMIZED IN MOST AREAS AS THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION WILL TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK AND KEEP US ON THE DRIER
AND WINDY SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY IN GENERAL...WITH THE MOST
SUN IN THE MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EAST DURING THE DAY...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT
THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MT AND STRENGTHEN
SOME...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER
THE DAKOTAS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM NORTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL SD BY THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED FROM BUFFALO...SOUTHEAST TO THE WINNER AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO NORTHERN SD
DURING THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA....WARMEST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD MOSTLY BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...STARTING OFF ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY AND SOUTHWEST SD AND MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER LOW...WITH
CAPE VALUES PROGGED NEAR OR BELOW 500 J/KG...BUT A STRONG STORM OR
TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN WY AND WESTERN SD LATE TODAY/EARLY EVENING. SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT AND
COULD HELP TO KEEP ACTIVITY GOING OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NORTHWEST
MT...WITH TROF COVERING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST
ALONG THE CANADIAN/MT BORDER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
REACHING SOUTHEAST SK/NORTHWEST ND AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST WY EARLY WEDNESDAY...
THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN SD PLAINS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
SOME AREAS OF WESTERN SD...BUT STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THAT AT THIS POINT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER
NORTHEAST WY TO THE UPPER 70S OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST WY EARLY IN
THE DAY AND TOWARD CENTRAL SD LATER IN THE DAY AS THR FRONT
ARRIVES. LOOKS LIKE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE DRY
SLOT...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS
STAYING SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON THU AND FRI AS UPPER
LOW SHIFTS EWD ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE
CROSSES THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. COULD BE SOME -SHRA
ACRS THE WRN CWFA THU BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN. WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THU AS UPPER LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST EARLY IN
THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM ALL SHOW AN UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH
THE CNTRL ROCKIES SAT/EARLY SUN AND INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS
SUN/MON. WDSPRD PCPN LOOKING QUITE LIKELY BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...WITH LATEST THERMAL PROFILES BOOSTING CONFIDENCE THAT
TEMPS SHOULD BECOME QUITE COLD...20 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW AVERAGE
FOR HIGH TEMPS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT IT
REMAINS MUCH TOO EARLY TO KNOW HOW MUCH AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SOME HIGH BASED
SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTAINING BRIEF MVFR VSBYS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 220915
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
315 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PREESURE OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN ID. A WARM
FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE LOW ACROSS MT INTO WESTERN SD. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...WITH TROF AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE PACIFIC NW
COAST. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS NOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 40S...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
MOST LOCATIONS...BREEZY AT TIMES OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR
SOUTHWEST SD.

ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP BEFORE A COOLDOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPS TAKES PLACE AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE MINIMIZED IN MOST AREAS AS THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION WILL TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK AND KEEP US ON THE DRIER
AND WINDY SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY IN GENERAL...WITH THE MOST
SUN IN THE MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EAST DURING THE DAY...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT
THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MT AND STRENGTHEN
SOME...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER
THE DAKOTAS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM NORTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL SD BY THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED FROM BUFFALO...SOUTHEAST TO THE WINNER AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO NORTHERN SD
DURING THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA....WARMEST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD MOSTLY BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...STARTING OFF ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY AND SOUTHWEST SD AND MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER LOW...WITH
CAPE VALUES PROGGED NEAR OR BELOW 500 J/KG...BUT A STRONG STORM OR
TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN WY AND WESTERN SD LATE TODAY/EARLY EVENING. SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT AND
COULD HELP TO KEEP ACTIVITY GOING OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NORTHWEST
MT...WITH TROF COVERING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST
ALONG THE CANADIAN/MT BORDER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
REACHING SOUTHEAST SK/NORTHWEST ND AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST WY EARLY WEDNESDAY...
THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN SD PLAINS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
SOME AREAS OF WESTERN SD...BUT STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THAT AT THIS POINT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER
NORTHEAST WY TO THE UPPER 70S OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST WY EARLY IN
THE DAY AND TOWARD CENTRAL SD LATER IN THE DAY AS THR FRONT
ARRIVES. LOOKS LIKE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE DRY
SLOT...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS
STAYING SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON THU AND FRI AS UPPER
LOW SHIFTS EWD ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE
CROSSES THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. COULD BE SOME -SHRA
ACRS THE WRN CWFA THU BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN. WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THU AS UPPER LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST EARLY IN
THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM ALL SHOW AN UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH
THE CNTRL ROCKIES SAT/EARLY SUN AND INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS
SUN/MON. WDSPRD PCPN LOOKING QUITE LIKELY BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...WITH LATEST THERMAL PROFILES BOOSTING CONFIDENCE THAT
TEMPS SHOULD BECOME QUITE COLD...20 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW AVERAGE
FOR HIGH TEMPS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT IT
REMAINS MUCH TOO EARLY TO KNOW HOW MUCH AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SOME HIGH BASED
SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTAINING BRIEF MVFR VSBYS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON








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