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000
FXUS63 KUNR 282105
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
205 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVECT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A TRAILING SECONDARY WAVE OVER EASTERN MT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT. WEAK ASCENT COUPLED WITH A LL
MOISTURE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA OVER THE SW HALF OF THE
FA...WITH A WANING TREND IN COVERAGE EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING.
MAIN STORY IS THE WINDS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. STRONG LL
FLOW/PRESSURE RISE COUPLET/AND CAA WILL COMBINE TO SUPPORT NEAR OR
AT WIND ADV WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. DID EXTEND THE WIND
ADV TO COVER SCENTRAL SD...AND IN TIME THROUGH THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY BENIGN WEATHER IN THE PERIOD AS THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE WARM SIDE OF FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. WEAK SFC RIDGE WILL
ADVECT THROUGH THE AREA THUR...WITH A ANOTHER WEAK FAST MOVING
SYSTEM EXPECTED BY FRIDAY. MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.

GUSTY NW WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THE SD PLAINS INTO THE EVENING.
SECONDARY PRESSURE RISE/CAA PUSH WILL WITH STEEP LL LAPS RATES WILL
SUPPORT GOOD MIXING OF FAST FLOW DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS OF 25
TO 35 MPH WITH GUST TO 50 TO CONTINUE ON MUCH OF THE SD PLAINS
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WANE LATE THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY THUR MORNING. A POCKET OF CAA LOW CLOUDS WILL
PUSH INTO WESTERN SD THIS EVENING AND COVER MOST OF THE EASTERN FA
THUR MORNING. THE NAM IS CERTAINLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE PER LOW
CLOUDS...KEEPING THEM IN PLACE OVER THE SD PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF
THUR. HOWEVER...FEEL THIS IS A LITTLE OVERDONE GIVEN LACK OF
APPRECIABLE SNOW COVER...WHICH WILL SUPPORT BETTER MIXING AND
SUBSEQUENT MIX OUT OF CLOUDS THUR AFTERNOON. THUS...SIDED WITH THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR THUR PER HIGHS. WAA WILL DEVELOP THUR
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT THUR IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPING AREAS AS
PRESSURE FALLS REV UP AND SW FLOW INCREASES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

ONE MORE ABOVE AVERAGE DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. A COOL DOWN IS STILL IN STORE
FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH GFS ENSEMBLE STILL
SHOWS A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD OF POSSIBLE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A CANADIAN COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE ON
SATURDAY...THEN GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WAVERS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SNOW SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...NOW LOOKING A LITTLE LATER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCES FOR POPS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...MOSTLY FAR NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND FAR
NORTHWEST SD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KTS AND GUSTS TO 40 KTS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD DURING THE DAY.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING FOR BOTH KGCC AND
KRAP. ADDED MVFR CIGS TO KGCC TAF...BUT DO NOT AGREE WITH THE LOW
CIGS AT KRAP SO LEFT THEM OUT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-025-026-031-032-043-044-046-047-049-072-
     073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE







000
FXUS63 KUNR 282105
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
205 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVECT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A TRAILING SECONDARY WAVE OVER EASTERN MT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT. WEAK ASCENT COUPLED WITH A LL
MOISTURE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA OVER THE SW HALF OF THE
FA...WITH A WANING TREND IN COVERAGE EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING.
MAIN STORY IS THE WINDS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. STRONG LL
FLOW/PRESSURE RISE COUPLET/AND CAA WILL COMBINE TO SUPPORT NEAR OR
AT WIND ADV WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. DID EXTEND THE WIND
ADV TO COVER SCENTRAL SD...AND IN TIME THROUGH THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY BENIGN WEATHER IN THE PERIOD AS THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE WARM SIDE OF FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. WEAK SFC RIDGE WILL
ADVECT THROUGH THE AREA THUR...WITH A ANOTHER WEAK FAST MOVING
SYSTEM EXPECTED BY FRIDAY. MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.

GUSTY NW WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THE SD PLAINS INTO THE EVENING.
SECONDARY PRESSURE RISE/CAA PUSH WILL WITH STEEP LL LAPS RATES WILL
SUPPORT GOOD MIXING OF FAST FLOW DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS OF 25
TO 35 MPH WITH GUST TO 50 TO CONTINUE ON MUCH OF THE SD PLAINS
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WANE LATE THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY THUR MORNING. A POCKET OF CAA LOW CLOUDS WILL
PUSH INTO WESTERN SD THIS EVENING AND COVER MOST OF THE EASTERN FA
THUR MORNING. THE NAM IS CERTAINLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE PER LOW
CLOUDS...KEEPING THEM IN PLACE OVER THE SD PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF
THUR. HOWEVER...FEEL THIS IS A LITTLE OVERDONE GIVEN LACK OF
APPRECIABLE SNOW COVER...WHICH WILL SUPPORT BETTER MIXING AND
SUBSEQUENT MIX OUT OF CLOUDS THUR AFTERNOON. THUS...SIDED WITH THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR THUR PER HIGHS. WAA WILL DEVELOP THUR
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT THUR IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPING AREAS AS
PRESSURE FALLS REV UP AND SW FLOW INCREASES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

ONE MORE ABOVE AVERAGE DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. A COOL DOWN IS STILL IN STORE
FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH GFS ENSEMBLE STILL
SHOWS A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD OF POSSIBLE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A CANADIAN COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE ON
SATURDAY...THEN GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WAVERS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SNOW SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...NOW LOOKING A LITTLE LATER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCES FOR POPS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...MOSTLY FAR NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND FAR
NORTHWEST SD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KTS AND GUSTS TO 40 KTS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD DURING THE DAY.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING FOR BOTH KGCC AND
KRAP. ADDED MVFR CIGS TO KGCC TAF...BUT DO NOT AGREE WITH THE LOW
CIGS AT KRAP SO LEFT THEM OUT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-025-026-031-032-043-044-046-047-049-072-
     073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE








000
FXUS63 KUNR 281711
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1011 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 216 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NRN PLAINS...WITH A
STRONG WAVE FLATTENING THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. ANOTHER
WAVE IS NOTED OVER SWRN WY. AT THE SFC...LEE TROF HAS ADVANCED
THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS...WITH CDFNT PUSHING INTO NRN MT.

TODAY...CDFNT OVER NRN MT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SEWD AND CROSS THE
CWFA DURING THE AFTN HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MRNG AS
850MB WINDS OF 40-45KTS ATTEMPT TO MIX TOWARDS THE SFC...WITH
WINDS INCREASING FURTHER THIS AFTN BEHIND THE CDFNT AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD. COULD BE A FEW -SHRA
FROM NERN WY THROUGH THE BLKHLS INTO SWRN SD AS WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER SWRN WY MOVES EWD...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE MILD AGAIN TODAY...BUT STILL ABOUT 10-15F DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAYS RECORD BREAKING WARMTH.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVE WITH SFC HIGH
SETTLING INTO THE WRN ZONES BY MRNG.

THURSDAY...PLENTY OF INSOLATION EXPECTED WITH SFC HIGH COVERING
THE NRN PLAINS. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH TEMPS IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 216 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

ONE MORE ABOVE AVERAGE DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON A STRONGER COOLDOWN FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH GFS ENSEMBLE STILL SHOWS A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD OF
POSSIBLE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER AND AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCES FOR POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...MOSTLY FAR NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND FAR NORTHWEST
SD. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE ON SATURDAY...THEN GENERALLY
BELOW AVERAGE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KTS AND GUSTS TO 40 KTS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD DURING THE DAY.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING FOR BOTH KGCC AND
KRAP. ADDED MVFR CIGS TO KGCC TAF...BUT DO NOT AGREE WITH THE LOW
CIGS AT KRAP SO LEFT THEM OUT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ043-044-046-047-049.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-025-026-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...POJORLIE








000
FXUS63 KUNR 281711
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1011 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 216 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NRN PLAINS...WITH A
STRONG WAVE FLATTENING THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. ANOTHER
WAVE IS NOTED OVER SWRN WY. AT THE SFC...LEE TROF HAS ADVANCED
THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS...WITH CDFNT PUSHING INTO NRN MT.

TODAY...CDFNT OVER NRN MT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SEWD AND CROSS THE
CWFA DURING THE AFTN HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MRNG AS
850MB WINDS OF 40-45KTS ATTEMPT TO MIX TOWARDS THE SFC...WITH
WINDS INCREASING FURTHER THIS AFTN BEHIND THE CDFNT AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD. COULD BE A FEW -SHRA
FROM NERN WY THROUGH THE BLKHLS INTO SWRN SD AS WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER SWRN WY MOVES EWD...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE MILD AGAIN TODAY...BUT STILL ABOUT 10-15F DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAYS RECORD BREAKING WARMTH.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVE WITH SFC HIGH
SETTLING INTO THE WRN ZONES BY MRNG.

THURSDAY...PLENTY OF INSOLATION EXPECTED WITH SFC HIGH COVERING
THE NRN PLAINS. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH TEMPS IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 216 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

ONE MORE ABOVE AVERAGE DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON A STRONGER COOLDOWN FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH GFS ENSEMBLE STILL SHOWS A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD OF
POSSIBLE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER AND AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCES FOR POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...MOSTLY FAR NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND FAR NORTHWEST
SD. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE ON SATURDAY...THEN GENERALLY
BELOW AVERAGE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KTS AND GUSTS TO 40 KTS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD DURING THE DAY.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING FOR BOTH KGCC AND
KRAP. ADDED MVFR CIGS TO KGCC TAF...BUT DO NOT AGREE WITH THE LOW
CIGS AT KRAP SO LEFT THEM OUT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ043-044-046-047-049.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-025-026-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...POJORLIE







000
FXUS63 KUNR 281142
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
442 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 216 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NRN PLAINS...WITH A
STRONG WAVE FLATTENING THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. ANOTHER
WAVE IS NOTED OVER SWRN WY. AT THE SFC...LEE TROF HAS ADVANCED
THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS...WITH CDFNT PUSHING INTO NRN MT.

TODAY...CDFNT OVER NRN MT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SEWD AND CROSS THE
CWFA DURING THE AFTN HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MRNG AS
850MB WINDS OF 40-45KTS ATTEMPT TO MIX TOWARDS THE SFC...WITH
WINDS INCREASING FURTHER THIS AFTN BEHIND THE CDFNT AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD. COULD BE A FEW -SHRA
FROM NERN WY THROUGH THE BLKHLS INTO SWRN SD AS WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER SWRN WY MOVES EWD...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE MILD AGAIN TODAY...BUT STILL ABOUT 10-15F DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAYS RECORD BREAKING WARMTH.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVE WITH SFC HIGH
SETTLING INTO THE WRN ZONES BY MRNG.

THURSDAY...PLENTY OF INSOLATION EXPECTED WITH SFC HIGH COVERING
THE NRN PLAINS. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH TEMPS IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 216 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

ONE MORE ABOVE AVERAGE DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON A STRONGER COOLDOWN FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH GFS ENSEMBLE STILL SHOWS A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD OF
POSSIBLE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER AND AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCES FOR POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...MOSTLY FAR NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND FAR NORTHWEST
SD. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE ON SATURDAY...THEN GENERALLY
BELOW AVERAGE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 442 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CAN BE EXPECTED AT KRAP EARLY THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KTS AND GUSTS TO 40 KTS
WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD DURING THE DAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-025-026-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS63 KUNR 281142
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
442 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 216 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NRN PLAINS...WITH A
STRONG WAVE FLATTENING THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. ANOTHER
WAVE IS NOTED OVER SWRN WY. AT THE SFC...LEE TROF HAS ADVANCED
THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS...WITH CDFNT PUSHING INTO NRN MT.

TODAY...CDFNT OVER NRN MT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SEWD AND CROSS THE
CWFA DURING THE AFTN HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MRNG AS
850MB WINDS OF 40-45KTS ATTEMPT TO MIX TOWARDS THE SFC...WITH
WINDS INCREASING FURTHER THIS AFTN BEHIND THE CDFNT AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD. COULD BE A FEW -SHRA
FROM NERN WY THROUGH THE BLKHLS INTO SWRN SD AS WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER SWRN WY MOVES EWD...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE MILD AGAIN TODAY...BUT STILL ABOUT 10-15F DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAYS RECORD BREAKING WARMTH.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVE WITH SFC HIGH
SETTLING INTO THE WRN ZONES BY MRNG.

THURSDAY...PLENTY OF INSOLATION EXPECTED WITH SFC HIGH COVERING
THE NRN PLAINS. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH TEMPS IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 216 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

ONE MORE ABOVE AVERAGE DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON A STRONGER COOLDOWN FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH GFS ENSEMBLE STILL SHOWS A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD OF
POSSIBLE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER AND AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCES FOR POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...MOSTLY FAR NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND FAR NORTHWEST
SD. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE ON SATURDAY...THEN GENERALLY
BELOW AVERAGE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 442 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CAN BE EXPECTED AT KRAP EARLY THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KTS AND GUSTS TO 40 KTS
WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD DURING THE DAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-025-026-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 280927
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
227 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 216 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NRN PLAINS...WITH A
STRONG WAVE FLATTENING THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. ANOTHER
WAVE IS NOTED OVER SWRN WY. AT THE SFC...LEE TROF HAS ADVANCED
THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS...WITH CDFNT PUSHING INTO NRN MT.

TODAY...CDFNT OVER NRN MT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SEWD AND CROSS THE
CWFA DURING THE AFTN HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MRNG AS
850MB WINDS OF 40-45KTS ATTEMPT TO MIX TOWARDS THE SFC...WITH
WINDS INCREASING FURTHER THIS AFTN BEHIND THE CDFNT AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD. COULD BE A FEW -SHRA
FROM NERN WY THROUGH THE BLKHLS INTO SWRN SD AS WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER SWRN WY MOVES EWD...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE MILD AGAIN TODAY...BUT STILL ABOUT 10-15F DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAYS RECORD BREAKING WARMTH.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVE WITH SFC HIGH
SETTLING INTO THE WRN ZONES BY MRNG.

THURSDAY...PLENTY OF INSOLATION EXPECTED WITH SFC HIGH COVERING
THE NRN PLAINS. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH TEMPS IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 216 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

ONE MORE ABOVE AVERAGE DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON A STRONGER COOLDOWN FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH GFS ENSEMBLE STILL SHOWS A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD OF
POSSIBLE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER AND AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCES FOR POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...MOSTLY FAR NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND FAR NORTHWEST
SD. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE ON SATURDAY...THEN GENERALLY
BELOW AVERAGE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 216 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15
TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD
DURING THE DAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-025-026-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS63 KUNR 280927
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
227 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 216 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NRN PLAINS...WITH A
STRONG WAVE FLATTENING THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. ANOTHER
WAVE IS NOTED OVER SWRN WY. AT THE SFC...LEE TROF HAS ADVANCED
THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS...WITH CDFNT PUSHING INTO NRN MT.

TODAY...CDFNT OVER NRN MT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SEWD AND CROSS THE
CWFA DURING THE AFTN HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MRNG AS
850MB WINDS OF 40-45KTS ATTEMPT TO MIX TOWARDS THE SFC...WITH
WINDS INCREASING FURTHER THIS AFTN BEHIND THE CDFNT AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD. COULD BE A FEW -SHRA
FROM NERN WY THROUGH THE BLKHLS INTO SWRN SD AS WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER SWRN WY MOVES EWD...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE MILD AGAIN TODAY...BUT STILL ABOUT 10-15F DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAYS RECORD BREAKING WARMTH.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVE WITH SFC HIGH
SETTLING INTO THE WRN ZONES BY MRNG.

THURSDAY...PLENTY OF INSOLATION EXPECTED WITH SFC HIGH COVERING
THE NRN PLAINS. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH TEMPS IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 216 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

ONE MORE ABOVE AVERAGE DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON A STRONGER COOLDOWN FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH GFS ENSEMBLE STILL SHOWS A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD OF
POSSIBLE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER AND AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCES FOR POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...MOSTLY FAR NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND FAR NORTHWEST
SD. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE ON SATURDAY...THEN GENERALLY
BELOW AVERAGE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 216 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15
TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD
DURING THE DAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-025-026-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 280532
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1032 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

AT 21Z THE WATER VAPOR SAT IMAGE SHOWED A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SFC A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER ERN MT/WY/CO AND WRN ND/SD/NEB.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...SUBSIDENCE AND WARM AIR HAVE PRODUCED RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES AT MANY LOCATIONS AGAIN TODAY.

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY
PRODUCING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING...THE BLACK HILLS AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A SURFACE
LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY
TIGHENING THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND ON THE PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS DUE TO THE TIGHT
SFC PRESS GRAD AND LL INSTABILITY DUE TO THE LOW-MID COLD ADVECTION.
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS...STARTING LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE
LOW MOVES AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACKEN
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO NEAR OR BELOW
AVERAGE LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION. MODELS NOW SHOWING AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED
AS A STRONGER WAVE CROSSES THE REGION...MAINLY OVER NW SD AND NE WY.
SOME MILDER AIR COULD SLIDE BACK EASTWARD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-025-026-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS63 KUNR 280532
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1032 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

AT 21Z THE WATER VAPOR SAT IMAGE SHOWED A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SFC A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER ERN MT/WY/CO AND WRN ND/SD/NEB.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...SUBSIDENCE AND WARM AIR HAVE PRODUCED RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES AT MANY LOCATIONS AGAIN TODAY.

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY
PRODUCING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING...THE BLACK HILLS AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A SURFACE
LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY
TIGHENING THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND ON THE PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS DUE TO THE TIGHT
SFC PRESS GRAD AND LL INSTABILITY DUE TO THE LOW-MID COLD ADVECTION.
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS...STARTING LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE
LOW MOVES AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACKEN
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO NEAR OR BELOW
AVERAGE LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION. MODELS NOW SHOWING AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED
AS A STRONGER WAVE CROSSES THE REGION...MAINLY OVER NW SD AND NE WY.
SOME MILDER AIR COULD SLIDE BACK EASTWARD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-025-026-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...7








000
FXUS63 KUNR 272200
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
300 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

AT 21Z THE WATER VAPOR SAT IMAGE SHOWED A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SFC A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER ERN MT/WY/CO AND WRN ND/SD/NEB.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...SUBSIDENCE AND WARM AIR HAVE PRODUCED RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES AT MANY LOCATIONS AGAIN TODAY.

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY
PRODUCING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING...THE BLACK HILLS AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A SURFACE
LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY
TIGHENING THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND ON THE PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS DUE TO THE TIGHT
SFC PRESS GRAD AND LL INSTABILITY DUE TO THE LOW-MID COLD ADVECTION.
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS...STARTING LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE
LOW MOVES AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACKEN
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO NEAR OR BELOW
AVERAGE LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION. MODELS NOW SHOWING AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED
AS A STRONGER WAVE CROSSES THE REGION...MAINLY OVER NW SD AND NE WY.
SOME MILDER AIR COULD SLIDE BACK EASTWARD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20-30KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE WRN SD PLAINS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-025-026-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KUNR 272200
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
300 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

AT 21Z THE WATER VAPOR SAT IMAGE SHOWED A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SFC A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER ERN MT/WY/CO AND WRN ND/SD/NEB.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...SUBSIDENCE AND WARM AIR HAVE PRODUCED RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES AT MANY LOCATIONS AGAIN TODAY.

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY
PRODUCING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING...THE BLACK HILLS AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A SURFACE
LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY
TIGHENING THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND ON THE PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS DUE TO THE TIGHT
SFC PRESS GRAD AND LL INSTABILITY DUE TO THE LOW-MID COLD ADVECTION.
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS...STARTING LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE
LOW MOVES AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACKEN
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO NEAR OR BELOW
AVERAGE LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION. MODELS NOW SHOWING AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED
AS A STRONGER WAVE CROSSES THE REGION...MAINLY OVER NW SD AND NE WY.
SOME MILDER AIR COULD SLIDE BACK EASTWARD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20-30KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE WRN SD PLAINS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-025-026-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13








000
FXUS63 KUNR 271726
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1026 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
DEEPENING LEE TROF ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.

TODAY...LEE TROF WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY AFTN.
THICKNESS RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH PLENTY OF RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST TEMPS SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS WARM AS
MONDAY IF NOT A FEW DEGREES WARMER...BUT THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OVER THE NRN PLAINS AS A
STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
ENOUGH ENERGY FOR A FEW -SHRA ACROSS NERN WY...THE BLKHLS...AND
SWRN SD...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED. GUSTY NW WINDS
EXPECTED GIVEN COLD ADVECTION AND STEEP LO LVL LAPSE RATES...WITH
SOME AREAS ON THE SD PLAINS POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WINDS WILL DECREASE WED EVENING WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS
BY THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS...BUT
STILL SOME ISSUES WITH REGARD TO HOW COLD IT COULD BE AND HOW LONG
THE COLDER AIR REMAINS OVER THE REGION...WITH ECMWF STILL A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS AND GEM. WILL KEEP TRENDING COLDER
FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGS IN THE COLDEST AIR.
ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. SOME MILDER AIR COULD SLIDE
BACK EASTWARD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THAT IS VERY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT
ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25
TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...13








000
FXUS63 KUNR 271131
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
431 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
DEEPENING LEE TROF ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.

TODAY...LEE TROF WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY AFTN.
THICKNESS RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH PLENTY OF RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST TEMPS SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS WARM AS
MONDAY IF NOT A FEW DEGREES WARMER...BUT THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OVER THE NRN PLAINS AS A
STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
ENOUGH ENERGY FOR A FEW -SHRA ACROSS NERN WY...THE BLKHLS...AND
SWRN SD...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED. GUSTY NW WINDS
EXPECTED GIVEN COLD ADVECTION AND STEEP LO LVL LAPSE RATES...WITH
SOME AREAS ON THE SD PLAINS POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WINDS WILL DECREASE WED EVENING WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS
BY THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS...BUT
STILL SOME ISSUES WITH REGARD TO HOW COLD IT COULD BE AND HOW LONG
THE COLDER AIR REMAINS OVER THE REGION...WITH ECMWF STILL A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS AND GEM. WILL KEEP TRENDING COLDER
FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGS IN THE COLDEST AIR.
ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. SOME MILDER AIR COULD SLIDE
BACK EASTWARD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THAT IS VERY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 271131
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
431 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
DEEPENING LEE TROF ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.

TODAY...LEE TROF WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY AFTN.
THICKNESS RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH PLENTY OF RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST TEMPS SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS WARM AS
MONDAY IF NOT A FEW DEGREES WARMER...BUT THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OVER THE NRN PLAINS AS A
STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
ENOUGH ENERGY FOR A FEW -SHRA ACROSS NERN WY...THE BLKHLS...AND
SWRN SD...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED. GUSTY NW WINDS
EXPECTED GIVEN COLD ADVECTION AND STEEP LO LVL LAPSE RATES...WITH
SOME AREAS ON THE SD PLAINS POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WINDS WILL DECREASE WED EVENING WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS
BY THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS...BUT
STILL SOME ISSUES WITH REGARD TO HOW COLD IT COULD BE AND HOW LONG
THE COLDER AIR REMAINS OVER THE REGION...WITH ECMWF STILL A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS AND GEM. WILL KEEP TRENDING COLDER
FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGS IN THE COLDEST AIR.
ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. SOME MILDER AIR COULD SLIDE
BACK EASTWARD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THAT IS VERY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS63 KUNR 270938
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
238 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST WITH DEEPENING LEE TROF ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT.

TODAY...LEE TROF WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY AFTN.
THICKNESS RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH PLENTY OF RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST TEMPS SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS WARM AS
MONDAY IF NOT A FEW DEGREES WARMER...BUT THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OVER THE NRN PLAINS AS A
STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
ENOUGH ENERGY FOR A FEW -SHRA ACROSS NERN WY...THE BLKHLS...AND
SWRN SD...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED. GUSTY NW WINDS
EXPECTED GIVEN COLD ADVECTION AND STEEP LO LVL LAPSE RATES...WITH
SOME AREAS ON THE SD PLAINS POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WINDS WILL DECREASE WED EVENING WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO NEAR OR BELOW
AVERAGE LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THIS...BUT STILL SOME ISSUES WITH REGARD TO HOW COLD IT COULD BE AND
HOW LONG THE COLDER AIR REMAINS OVER THE REGION...WITH ECMWF STILL A
BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS AND GEM. WILL KEEP TRENDING COLDER
FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGS IN THE COLDEST AIR. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. SOME MILDER AIR COULD SLIDE
BACK EASTWARD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THAT IS VERY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 224 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 270938
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
238 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST WITH DEEPENING LEE TROF ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT.

TODAY...LEE TROF WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY AFTN.
THICKNESS RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH PLENTY OF RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST TEMPS SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS WARM AS
MONDAY IF NOT A FEW DEGREES WARMER...BUT THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OVER THE NRN PLAINS AS A
STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
ENOUGH ENERGY FOR A FEW -SHRA ACROSS NERN WY...THE BLKHLS...AND
SWRN SD...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED. GUSTY NW WINDS
EXPECTED GIVEN COLD ADVECTION AND STEEP LO LVL LAPSE RATES...WITH
SOME AREAS ON THE SD PLAINS POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WINDS WILL DECREASE WED EVENING WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 224 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO NEAR OR BELOW
AVERAGE LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THIS...BUT STILL SOME ISSUES WITH REGARD TO HOW COLD IT COULD BE AND
HOW LONG THE COLDER AIR REMAINS OVER THE REGION...WITH ECMWF STILL A
BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS AND GEM. WILL KEEP TRENDING COLDER
FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGS IN THE COLDEST AIR. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. SOME MILDER AIR COULD SLIDE
BACK EASTWARD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THAT IS VERY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 224 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS63 KUNR 270506
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1006 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 232 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST RESULTING IN MILD NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS HAVE BEEN BROKEN
AT A FEW LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT...PEAKING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 850-700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS WARMER THAN THE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON TUESDAY...850MB TEMPS OVER WESTERN
SD ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 5C WARMER THAN ON MONDAY...AND NEAR
THE SAME AS MONDAY OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. THEREFORE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS TO MONDAY OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORCAST
AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WARMER TEMPS OVER THE EAST. EVEN
THIN CIRRUS CAN HAVE A LIMITING AFFECT ON THE HIGH TEMPS THIS TIME
OF YEAR AS SEEN AT KGCC THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE TEMP FELL 4
DEGREES F AS A BAND OF THIN CLOUDS CROSSED THE STATION THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS AT THIS TIME ARE SHOWING VERY DRY RH PROFILES
ON TUESDAY SO EXPECT GOOD HEATING DUE TO INSOLATION WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE POTENTIAL MAXES.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND
WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL COOLDOWN FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK....BUT TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND BRISK
WINDS AT TIMES...BUT CHANCES FOR PCPN STILL LOOK RATHER LOW AT THIS
POINT. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH MORE
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO TEMPS AND ANY PCPN
CHANCES. POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS/ECM CONTINUE WITH
THE GFS THE WARMER SOLUTION KEEPING ARCTIC AIR EAST OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS63 KUNR 270506
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1006 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 232 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST RESULTING IN MILD NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS HAVE BEEN BROKEN
AT A FEW LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT...PEAKING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 850-700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS WARMER THAN THE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON TUESDAY...850MB TEMPS OVER WESTERN
SD ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 5C WARMER THAN ON MONDAY...AND NEAR
THE SAME AS MONDAY OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. THEREFORE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS TO MONDAY OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORCAST
AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WARMER TEMPS OVER THE EAST. EVEN
THIN CIRRUS CAN HAVE A LIMITING AFFECT ON THE HIGH TEMPS THIS TIME
OF YEAR AS SEEN AT KGCC THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE TEMP FELL 4
DEGREES F AS A BAND OF THIN CLOUDS CROSSED THE STATION THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS AT THIS TIME ARE SHOWING VERY DRY RH PROFILES
ON TUESDAY SO EXPECT GOOD HEATING DUE TO INSOLATION WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE POTENTIAL MAXES.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND
WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL COOLDOWN FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK....BUT TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND BRISK
WINDS AT TIMES...BUT CHANCES FOR PCPN STILL LOOK RATHER LOW AT THIS
POINT. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH MORE
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO TEMPS AND ANY PCPN
CHANCES. POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS/ECM CONTINUE WITH
THE GFS THE WARMER SOLUTION KEEPING ARCTIC AIR EAST OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...7








000
FXUS63 KUNR 262148
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
248 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 232 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST RESULTING IN MILD NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS HAVE BEEN BROKEN
AT A FEW LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT...PEAKING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 850-700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS WARMER THAN THE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON TUESDAY...850MB TEMPS OVER WESTERN
SD ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 5C WARMER THAN ON MONDAY...AND NEAR
THE SAME AS MONDAY OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. THEREFORE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS TO MONDAY OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORCAST
AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WARMER TEMPS OVER THE EAST. EVEN
THIN CIRRUS CAN HAVE A LIMITING AFFECT ON THE HIGH TEMPS THIS TIME
OF YEAR AS SEEN AT KGCC THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE TEMP FELL 4
DEGREES F AS A BAND OF THIN CLOUDS CROSSED THE STATION THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS AT THIS TIME ARE SHOWING VERY DRY RH PROFILES
ON TUESDAY SO EXPECT GOOD HEATING DUE TO INSOLATION WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE POTENTIAL MAXES.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND
WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL COOLDOWN FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK....BUT TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND BRISK
WINDS AT TIMES...BUT CHANCES FOR PCPN STILL LOOK RATHER LOW AT THIS
POINT. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH MORE
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO TEMPS AND ANY PCPN
CHANCES. POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS/ECM CONTINUE WITH
THE GFS THE WARMER SOLUTION KEEPING ARCTIC AIR EAST OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 232 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS63 KUNR 261725
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1025 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE RISING QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND WESTERLY WINDS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MB WITH WARM FRONT
INTO CENTRAL NE. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
US AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST.

TODAY/TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL/THERMAL RIDGE WILL PEAK OVER THE CWA.
850-700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. AVERAGE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE DOWNSLOPING. RESULT
WILL BE STUNNINGLY MILD WEATHER FOR LATE JANUARY WITH MANY RECORD
HIGHS IN JEOPARDY FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY. ONE WILD CARD FOR ACTUAL
HIGHS WILL BE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERTOPPING RIDGE...BUT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF SOLAR INSOLATION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WEAKEN ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL COOLDOWN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK....BUT TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND BRISK
WINDS AT TIMES...BUT CHANCES FOR PCPN STILL LOOK RATHER LOW AT
THIS POINT. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO SHOW MUCH MORE
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO TEMPS AND ANY PCPN
CHANCES...WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. LATEST ECMWF IS NOW COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE GFS.
FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1023 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MCKEMY







000
FXUS63 KUNR 261725
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1025 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE RISING QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND WESTERLY WINDS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MB WITH WARM FRONT
INTO CENTRAL NE. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
US AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST.

TODAY/TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL/THERMAL RIDGE WILL PEAK OVER THE CWA.
850-700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. AVERAGE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE DOWNSLOPING. RESULT
WILL BE STUNNINGLY MILD WEATHER FOR LATE JANUARY WITH MANY RECORD
HIGHS IN JEOPARDY FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY. ONE WILD CARD FOR ACTUAL
HIGHS WILL BE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERTOPPING RIDGE...BUT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF SOLAR INSOLATION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WEAKEN ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL COOLDOWN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK....BUT TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND BRISK
WINDS AT TIMES...BUT CHANCES FOR PCPN STILL LOOK RATHER LOW AT
THIS POINT. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO SHOW MUCH MORE
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO TEMPS AND ANY PCPN
CHANCES...WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. LATEST ECMWF IS NOW COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE GFS.
FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1023 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MCKEMY








000
FXUS63 KUNR 261636
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
936 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE RISING QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND WESTERLY WINDS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MB WITH WARM FRONT
INTO CENTRAL NE. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
US AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST.

TODAY/TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL/THERMAL RIDGE WILL PEAK OVER THE CWA.
850-700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. AVERAGE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE DOWNSLOPING. RESULT
WILL BE STUNNINGLY MILD WEATHER FOR LATE JANUARY WITH MANY RECORD
HIGHS IN JEOPARDY FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY. ONE WILD CARD FOR ACTUAL
HIGHS WILL BE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERTOPPING RIDGE...BUT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF SOLAR INSOLATION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WEAKEN ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL COOLDOWN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK....BUT TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND BRISK
WINDS AT TIMES...BUT CHANCES FOR PCPN STILL LOOK RATHER LOW AT
THIS POINT. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO SHOW MUCH MORE
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO TEMPS AND ANY PCPN
CHANCES...WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. LATEST ECMWF IS NOW COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE GFS.
FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 423 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS63 KUNR 261636
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
936 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE RISING QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND WESTERLY WINDS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MB WITH WARM FRONT
INTO CENTRAL NE. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
US AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST.

TODAY/TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL/THERMAL RIDGE WILL PEAK OVER THE CWA.
850-700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. AVERAGE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE DOWNSLOPING. RESULT
WILL BE STUNNINGLY MILD WEATHER FOR LATE JANUARY WITH MANY RECORD
HIGHS IN JEOPARDY FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY. ONE WILD CARD FOR ACTUAL
HIGHS WILL BE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERTOPPING RIDGE...BUT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF SOLAR INSOLATION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WEAKEN ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL COOLDOWN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK....BUT TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND BRISK
WINDS AT TIMES...BUT CHANCES FOR PCPN STILL LOOK RATHER LOW AT
THIS POINT. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO SHOW MUCH MORE
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO TEMPS AND ANY PCPN
CHANCES...WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. LATEST ECMWF IS NOW COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE GFS.
FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 423 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 261123
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
423 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MB WITH WARM FRONT
INTO CENTRAL NE. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
US AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST.

TODAY/TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL/THERMAL RIDGE WILL PEAK OVER THE CWA.
850-700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. AVERAGE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE DOWNSLOPING. RESULT
WILL BE STUNNINGLY MILD WEATHER FOR LATE JANUARY WITH MANY RECORD
HIGHS IN JEOPARDY FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY. ONE WILD CARD FOR ACTUAL
HIGHS WILL BE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERTOPPING RIDGE...BUT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF SOLAR INSOLATION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WEAKEN ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL COOLDOWN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK....BUT TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND BRISK
WINDS AT TIMES...BUT CHANCES FOR PCPN STILL LOOK RATHER LOW AT
THIS POINT. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO SHOW MUCH MORE
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO TEMPS AND ANY PCPN
CHANCES...WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. LATEST ECMWF IS NOW COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE GFS.
FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 423 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 261123
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
423 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MB WITH WARM FRONT
INTO CENTRAL NE. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
US AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST.

TODAY/TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL/THERMAL RIDGE WILL PEAK OVER THE CWA.
850-700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. AVERAGE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE DOWNSLOPING. RESULT
WILL BE STUNNINGLY MILD WEATHER FOR LATE JANUARY WITH MANY RECORD
HIGHS IN JEOPARDY FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY. ONE WILD CARD FOR ACTUAL
HIGHS WILL BE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERTOPPING RIDGE...BUT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF SOLAR INSOLATION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WEAKEN ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL COOLDOWN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK....BUT TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND BRISK
WINDS AT TIMES...BUT CHANCES FOR PCPN STILL LOOK RATHER LOW AT
THIS POINT. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO SHOW MUCH MORE
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO TEMPS AND ANY PCPN
CHANCES...WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. LATEST ECMWF IS NOW COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE GFS.
FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 423 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26








000
FXUS63 KUNR 260932
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
232 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MB WITH WARM FRONT
INTO CENTRAL NE. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
US AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST.

TODAY/TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL/THERMAL RIDGE WILL PEAK OVER THE CWA.
850-700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. AVERAGE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE DOWNSLOPING. RESULT
WILL BE STUNNINGLY MILD WEATHER FOR LATE JANUARY WITH MANY RECORD
HIGHS IN JEOPARDY FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY. ONE WILD CARD FOR ACTUAL
HIGHS WILL BE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERTOPPING RIDGE...BUT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF SOLAR INSOLATION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WEAKEN ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL COOLDOWN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK....BUT TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND BRISK
WINDS AT TIMES...BUT CHANCES FOR PCPN STILL LOOK RATHER LOW AT
THIS POINT. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO SHOW MUCH MORE
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO TEMPS AND ANY PCPN
CHANCES...WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. LATEST ECMWF IS NOW COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE GFS.
FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS63 KUNR 260932
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
232 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MB WITH WARM FRONT
INTO CENTRAL NE. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
US AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST.

TODAY/TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL/THERMAL RIDGE WILL PEAK OVER THE CWA.
850-700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. AVERAGE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE DOWNSLOPING. RESULT
WILL BE STUNNINGLY MILD WEATHER FOR LATE JANUARY WITH MANY RECORD
HIGHS IN JEOPARDY FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY. ONE WILD CARD FOR ACTUAL
HIGHS WILL BE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERTOPPING RIDGE...BUT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF SOLAR INSOLATION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WEAKEN ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL COOLDOWN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK....BUT TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND BRISK
WINDS AT TIMES...BUT CHANCES FOR PCPN STILL LOOK RATHER LOW AT
THIS POINT. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO SHOW MUCH MORE
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO TEMPS AND ANY PCPN
CHANCES...WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. LATEST ECMWF IS NOW COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE GFS.
FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26






000
FXUS63 KUNR 260511
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1011 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. BANDS OF THICK CIRRUS HAVE
SLOWED THE WARM UP TODAY ESP EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH BUT WITH LOW
TO MID LEVEL WAA INCREASING IN STRENGTH DURING THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...STILL EXPECT TO REACH THE FORECAST HIGHS.

THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A THERMAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND
INTENSIFY AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY WEATHER WARM TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS AT SOME LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPS AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL COOL DOWN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE SOME TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THE GFS KEEPS THE
WESTERN RIDGE A LITTLE BROADER...WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT POKING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE EC HAS STRONGER TROFING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BUT
BOTH HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS63 KUNR 260511
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1011 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. BANDS OF THICK CIRRUS HAVE
SLOWED THE WARM UP TODAY ESP EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH BUT WITH LOW
TO MID LEVEL WAA INCREASING IN STRENGTH DURING THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...STILL EXPECT TO REACH THE FORECAST HIGHS.

THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A THERMAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND
INTENSIFY AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY WEATHER WARM TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS AT SOME LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPS AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL COOL DOWN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE SOME TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THE GFS KEEPS THE
WESTERN RIDGE A LITTLE BROADER...WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT POKING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE EC HAS STRONGER TROFING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BUT
BOTH HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...7








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