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000
FXUS63 KUNR 300408
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1008 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW AND CROSSING THE DAKOTA AND MONTANA ARE ACTING TO TIGHTEN THE
SFC PRESS GRAD AND PRODUCE AREAS OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...ESP OVER NWRN AND CNTL SD. UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS AND
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF TOT THE EAST.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD
OVER THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CO/NE...WHICH MAY BE FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN -TSRA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE THE CAP
WILL HOLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MAINLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...80S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT ON WHEN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
OCCUR...BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL AROUND
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 300408
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1008 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW AND CROSSING THE DAKOTA AND MONTANA ARE ACTING TO TIGHTEN THE
SFC PRESS GRAD AND PRODUCE AREAS OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...ESP OVER NWRN AND CNTL SD. UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS AND
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF TOT THE EAST.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD
OVER THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CO/NE...WHICH MAY BE FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN -TSRA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE THE CAP
WILL HOLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MAINLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...80S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT ON WHEN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
OCCUR...BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL AROUND
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC





000
FXUS63 KUNR 300408
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1008 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW AND CROSSING THE DAKOTA AND MONTANA ARE ACTING TO TIGHTEN THE
SFC PRESS GRAD AND PRODUCE AREAS OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...ESP OVER NWRN AND CNTL SD. UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS AND
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF TOT THE EAST.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD
OVER THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CO/NE...WHICH MAY BE FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN -TSRA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE THE CAP
WILL HOLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MAINLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...80S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT ON WHEN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
OCCUR...BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL AROUND
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 300229
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
829 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN
ONTARIO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND
CROSSING THE DAKOTA AND MONTANA ARE ACTING TO TIGHTEN THE SFC
PRESS GRAD AND PRODUCE AREAS OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ESP
OVER NWRN AND CNTL SD. UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS AND UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SHIFT OFF TOT THE EAST.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH A THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD OVER THE
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS CO/NE...WHICH MAY BE FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
-TSRA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE THE CAP WILL
HOLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MAINLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...80S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT ON WHEN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
OCCUR...BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL AROUND
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 829 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 300229
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
829 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN
ONTARIO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND
CROSSING THE DAKOTA AND MONTANA ARE ACTING TO TIGHTEN THE SFC
PRESS GRAD AND PRODUCE AREAS OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ESP
OVER NWRN AND CNTL SD. UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS AND UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SHIFT OFF TOT THE EAST.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH A THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD OVER THE
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS CO/NE...WHICH MAY BE FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
-TSRA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE THE CAP WILL
HOLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MAINLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...80S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT ON WHEN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
OCCUR...BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL AROUND
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 829 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC





000
FXUS63 KUNR 300229
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
829 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN
ONTARIO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND
CROSSING THE DAKOTA AND MONTANA ARE ACTING TO TIGHTEN THE SFC
PRESS GRAD AND PRODUCE AREAS OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ESP
OVER NWRN AND CNTL SD. UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS AND UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SHIFT OFF TOT THE EAST.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH A THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD OVER THE
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS CO/NE...WHICH MAY BE FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
-TSRA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE THE CAP WILL
HOLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MAINLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...80S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT ON WHEN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
OCCUR...BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL AROUND
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 829 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 300229
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
829 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN
ONTARIO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND
CROSSING THE DAKOTA AND MONTANA ARE ACTING TO TIGHTEN THE SFC
PRESS GRAD AND PRODUCE AREAS OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ESP
OVER NWRN AND CNTL SD. UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS AND UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SHIFT OFF TOT THE EAST.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH A THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD OVER THE
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS CO/NE...WHICH MAY BE FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
-TSRA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE THE CAP WILL
HOLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MAINLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...80S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT ON WHEN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
OCCUR...BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL AROUND
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 829 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC





000
FXUS63 KUNR 292037
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
237 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN
ONTARIO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND
CROSSING THE DAKOTA AND MONTANA ARE ACTING TO TIGHTEN THE SFC
PRESS GRAD AND PRODUCE AREAS OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ESP
OVER NWRN AND CNTL SD. UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS AND UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SHIFT OFF TOT THE EAST.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH A THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD OVER THE
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS CO/NE...WHICH MAY BE FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
-TSRA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE THE CAP WILL
HOLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MAINLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...80S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT ON WHEN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
OCCUR...BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL AROUND
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 292037
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
237 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN
ONTARIO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND
CROSSING THE DAKOTA AND MONTANA ARE ACTING TO TIGHTEN THE SFC
PRESS GRAD AND PRODUCE AREAS OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ESP
OVER NWRN AND CNTL SD. UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS AND UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SHIFT OFF TOT THE EAST.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH A THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD OVER THE
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS CO/NE...WHICH MAY BE FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
-TSRA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE THE CAP WILL
HOLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MAINLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...80S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT ON WHEN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
OCCUR...BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL AROUND
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS63 KUNR 291708
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES PLANNED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOUR
HAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER WEST CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHWEST US.

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST US THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. AS SURFACE HIGH RETREATS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ACROSS CO/NE...WHICH MAY BE FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN -TSRA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE MLCIN FOR HOLD
OVER THE CWA SO REMOVED POPS. SUMMERY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THE RULE
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE TODAY/WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WARMER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ON THE PLAINS...80S
IN THE HILLS. WEAK WAVES WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THERE IS BETTER INSTABILITY. THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD
BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 291708
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES PLANNED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOUR
HAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER WEST CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHWEST US.

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST US THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. AS SURFACE HIGH RETREATS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ACROSS CO/NE...WHICH MAY BE FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN -TSRA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE MLCIN FOR HOLD
OVER THE CWA SO REMOVED POPS. SUMMERY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THE RULE
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE TODAY/WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WARMER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ON THE PLAINS...80S
IN THE HILLS. WEAK WAVES WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THERE IS BETTER INSTABILITY. THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD
BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS63 KUNR 291708
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES PLANNED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOUR
HAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER WEST CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHWEST US.

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST US THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. AS SURFACE HIGH RETREATS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ACROSS CO/NE...WHICH MAY BE FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN -TSRA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE MLCIN FOR HOLD
OVER THE CWA SO REMOVED POPS. SUMMERY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THE RULE
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE TODAY/WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WARMER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ON THE PLAINS...80S
IN THE HILLS. WEAK WAVES WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THERE IS BETTER INSTABILITY. THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD
BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS63 KUNR 291708
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES PLANNED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOUR
HAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER WEST CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHWEST US.

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST US THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. AS SURFACE HIGH RETREATS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ACROSS CO/NE...WHICH MAY BE FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN -TSRA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE MLCIN FOR HOLD
OVER THE CWA SO REMOVED POPS. SUMMERY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THE RULE
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE TODAY/WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WARMER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ON THE PLAINS...80S
IN THE HILLS. WEAK WAVES WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THERE IS BETTER INSTABILITY. THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD
BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 291621
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1021 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES PLANNED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOUR
HAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER WEST CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHWEST US.

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST US THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. AS SURFACE HIGH RETREATS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ACROSS CO/NE...WHICH MAY BE FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN -TSRA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE MLCIN FOR HOLD
OVER THE CWA SO REMOVED POPS. SUMMERY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THE RULE
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE TODAY/WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WARMER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ON THE PLAINS...80S
IN THE HILLS. WEAK WAVES WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THERE IS BETTER INSTABILITY. THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD
BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 504 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 291621
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1021 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES PLANNED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOUR
HAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER WEST CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHWEST US.

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST US THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. AS SURFACE HIGH RETREATS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ACROSS CO/NE...WHICH MAY BE FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN -TSRA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE MLCIN FOR HOLD
OVER THE CWA SO REMOVED POPS. SUMMERY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THE RULE
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE TODAY/WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WARMER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ON THE PLAINS...80S
IN THE HILLS. WEAK WAVES WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THERE IS BETTER INSTABILITY. THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD
BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 504 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE





000
FXUS63 KUNR 291621
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1021 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES PLANNED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOUR
HAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER WEST CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHWEST US.

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST US THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. AS SURFACE HIGH RETREATS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ACROSS CO/NE...WHICH MAY BE FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN -TSRA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE MLCIN FOR HOLD
OVER THE CWA SO REMOVED POPS. SUMMERY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THE RULE
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE TODAY/WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WARMER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ON THE PLAINS...80S
IN THE HILLS. WEAK WAVES WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THERE IS BETTER INSTABILITY. THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD
BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 504 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE





000
FXUS63 KUNR 291621
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1021 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES PLANNED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOUR
HAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER WEST CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHWEST US.

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST US THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. AS SURFACE HIGH RETREATS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ACROSS CO/NE...WHICH MAY BE FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN -TSRA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE MLCIN FOR HOLD
OVER THE CWA SO REMOVED POPS. SUMMERY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THE RULE
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE TODAY/WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WARMER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ON THE PLAINS...80S
IN THE HILLS. WEAK WAVES WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THERE IS BETTER INSTABILITY. THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD
BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 504 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 291104
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
504 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOUR
HAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER WEST CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHWEST US.

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST US THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. AS SURFACE HIGH RETREATS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ACROSS CO/NE...WHICH MAY BE FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN -TSRA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE MLCIN FOR HOLD
OVER THE CWA SO REMOVED POPS. SUMMERY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THE RULE
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE TODAY/WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WARMER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ON THE PLAINS...80S
IN THE HILLS. WEAK WAVES WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THERE IS BETTER INSTABILITY. THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD
BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 504 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE





000
FXUS63 KUNR 291104
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
504 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOUR
HAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER WEST CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHWEST US.

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST US THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. AS SURFACE HIGH RETREATS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ACROSS CO/NE...WHICH MAY BE FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN -TSRA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE MLCIN FOR HOLD
OVER THE CWA SO REMOVED POPS. SUMMERY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THE RULE
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE TODAY/WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WARMER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ON THE PLAINS...80S
IN THE HILLS. WEAK WAVES WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THERE IS BETTER INSTABILITY. THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD
BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 504 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 290744
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
144 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOUR
HAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER WEST CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHWEST US.

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST US THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. AS SURFACE HIGH RETREATS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ACROSS CO/NE...WHICH MAY BE FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN -TSRA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE MLCIN FOR HOLD
OVER THE CWA SO REMOVED POPS. SUMMERY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THE RULE
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE TODAY/WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WARMER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ON THE PLAINS...80S
IN THE HILLS. WEAK WAVES WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THERE IS BETTER INSTABILITY. THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD
BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 290744
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
144 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOUR
HAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER WEST CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHWEST US.

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST US THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. AS SURFACE HIGH RETREATS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ACROSS CO/NE...WHICH MAY BE FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN -TSRA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE MLCIN FOR HOLD
OVER THE CWA SO REMOVED POPS. SUMMERY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THE RULE
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE TODAY/WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WARMER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ON THE PLAINS...80S
IN THE HILLS. WEAK WAVES WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THERE IS BETTER INSTABILITY. THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD
BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE





000
FXUS63 KUNR 290744
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
144 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOUR
HAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER WEST CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHWEST US.

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST US THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. AS SURFACE HIGH RETREATS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ACROSS CO/NE...WHICH MAY BE FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN -TSRA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE MLCIN FOR HOLD
OVER THE CWA SO REMOVED POPS. SUMMERY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THE RULE
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE TODAY/WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WARMER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ON THE PLAINS...80S
IN THE HILLS. WEAK WAVES WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THERE IS BETTER INSTABILITY. THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD
BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE





000
FXUS63 KUNR 290502
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1102 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

STACKED LOW OVER FAR SRN ALTA IS BRINGING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THIS AFTN. ANOMALOUSLY COOL
TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE CWFA WITH MID AFTN READINGS IN THE MID 60S
TO UPPER 70S...EVEN SOME 50S IN THE BLKHLS.

DRY NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED WITH LOW DRIFTING NEWD
TOWARDS THE HUDSON BAY. CHILLY TEMPS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A FEW
AREAS IN THE BLKHLS DIPPING INTO THE 30S. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED ON WED WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE 80S ON THE
PLAINS...70S IN THE HILLS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WARMER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD BECOME AT
LEAST A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC





000
FXUS63 KUNR 290502
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1102 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

STACKED LOW OVER FAR SRN ALTA IS BRINGING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THIS AFTN. ANOMALOUSLY COOL
TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE CWFA WITH MID AFTN READINGS IN THE MID 60S
TO UPPER 70S...EVEN SOME 50S IN THE BLKHLS.

DRY NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED WITH LOW DRIFTING NEWD
TOWARDS THE HUDSON BAY. CHILLY TEMPS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A FEW
AREAS IN THE BLKHLS DIPPING INTO THE 30S. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED ON WED WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE 80S ON THE
PLAINS...70S IN THE HILLS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WARMER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD BECOME AT
LEAST A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC





000
FXUS63 KUNR 290502
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1102 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

STACKED LOW OVER FAR SRN ALTA IS BRINGING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THIS AFTN. ANOMALOUSLY COOL
TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE CWFA WITH MID AFTN READINGS IN THE MID 60S
TO UPPER 70S...EVEN SOME 50S IN THE BLKHLS.

DRY NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED WITH LOW DRIFTING NEWD
TOWARDS THE HUDSON BAY. CHILLY TEMPS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A FEW
AREAS IN THE BLKHLS DIPPING INTO THE 30S. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED ON WED WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE 80S ON THE
PLAINS...70S IN THE HILLS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WARMER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD BECOME AT
LEAST A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 290502
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1102 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

STACKED LOW OVER FAR SRN ALTA IS BRINGING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THIS AFTN. ANOMALOUSLY COOL
TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE CWFA WITH MID AFTN READINGS IN THE MID 60S
TO UPPER 70S...EVEN SOME 50S IN THE BLKHLS.

DRY NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED WITH LOW DRIFTING NEWD
TOWARDS THE HUDSON BAY. CHILLY TEMPS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A FEW
AREAS IN THE BLKHLS DIPPING INTO THE 30S. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED ON WED WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE 80S ON THE
PLAINS...70S IN THE HILLS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WARMER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD BECOME AT
LEAST A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 282335
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
535 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

STACKED LOW OVER FAR SRN ALTA IS BRINGING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THIS AFTN. ANOMALOUSLY COOL
TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE CWFA WITH MID AFTN READINGS IN THE MID 60S
TO UPPER 70S...EVEN SOME 50S IN THE BLKHLS.

DRY NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED WITH LOW DRIFTING NEWD
TOWARDS THE HUDSON BAY. CHILLY TEMPS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A FEW
AREAS IN THE BLKHLS DIPPING INTO THE 30S. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED ON WED WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE 80S ON THE
PLAINS...70S IN THE HILLS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WARMER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD BECOME AT
LEAST A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 533 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ025-032-072-073.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS63 KUNR 282025
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
225 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

STACKED LOW OVER FAR SRN ALTA IS BRINGING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THIS AFTN. ANOMALOUSLY COOL
TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE CWFA WITH MID AFTN READINGS IN THE MID 60S
TO UPPER 70S...EVEN SOME 50S IN THE BLKHLS.

DRY NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED WITH LOW DRIFTING NEWD
TOWARDS THE HUDSON BAY. CHILLY TEMPS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A FEW
AREAS IN THE BLKHLS DIPPING INTO THE 30S. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED ON WED WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE 80S ON THE
PLAINS...70S IN THE HILLS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WARMER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD BECOME AT
LEAST A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY
AND NORTHERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
FAR NORTHWESTERN SD...WHERE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KT CAN BE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ025-032-072-073.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS63 KUNR 282025
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
225 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

STACKED LOW OVER FAR SRN ALTA IS BRINGING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THIS AFTN. ANOMALOUSLY COOL
TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE CWFA WITH MID AFTN READINGS IN THE MID 60S
TO UPPER 70S...EVEN SOME 50S IN THE BLKHLS.

DRY NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED WITH LOW DRIFTING NEWD
TOWARDS THE HUDSON BAY. CHILLY TEMPS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A FEW
AREAS IN THE BLKHLS DIPPING INTO THE 30S. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED ON WED WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE 80S ON THE
PLAINS...70S IN THE HILLS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WARMER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD BECOME AT
LEAST A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY
AND NORTHERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
FAR NORTHWESTERN SD...WHERE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KT CAN BE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ025-032-072-073.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 281727
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1127 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST SK WITH COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL NE. MCS IS PUSHING EAST OF CWA AS UPPER LOW SPINS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT AND 70KT JET STREAK PUSHES DRY SLOT INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

TODAY...UPPER LOW CATCHES UP WITH SURFACE LOW AND STACKS UP.
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH SPINNING AROUND SURFACE LOW WILL CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST SD...TAPPING INTO 35-45KTS 850MB WINDS. AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT THIS MORNING WOULD EXPECT GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WINDS OVER NORTHWEST
SD...MAINLY FROM K2WX TO KD07. SHARP CUTOFF TO HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED
GIVEN STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW. SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROMOTE DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PROMOTE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY RESULT IN
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND THE ECMWF KEEPING FLOW
MORE ZONAL AS A CANADIAN TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE. WHILE BOTH
SOLUTIONS HAVE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE ECMWF IS HINTING AT A SLIGHTLY MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN THAN THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY
AND NORTHERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
FAR NORTHWESTERN SD...WHERE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KT CAN BE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ025-032-072-073.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 281727
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1127 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST SK WITH COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL NE. MCS IS PUSHING EAST OF CWA AS UPPER LOW SPINS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT AND 70KT JET STREAK PUSHES DRY SLOT INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

TODAY...UPPER LOW CATCHES UP WITH SURFACE LOW AND STACKS UP.
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH SPINNING AROUND SURFACE LOW WILL CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST SD...TAPPING INTO 35-45KTS 850MB WINDS. AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT THIS MORNING WOULD EXPECT GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WINDS OVER NORTHWEST
SD...MAINLY FROM K2WX TO KD07. SHARP CUTOFF TO HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED
GIVEN STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW. SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROMOTE DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PROMOTE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY RESULT IN
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND THE ECMWF KEEPING FLOW
MORE ZONAL AS A CANADIAN TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE. WHILE BOTH
SOLUTIONS HAVE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE ECMWF IS HINTING AT A SLIGHTLY MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN THAN THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY
AND NORTHERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
FAR NORTHWESTERN SD...WHERE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KT CAN BE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ025-032-072-073.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS63 KUNR 281727
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1127 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST SK WITH COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL NE. MCS IS PUSHING EAST OF CWA AS UPPER LOW SPINS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT AND 70KT JET STREAK PUSHES DRY SLOT INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

TODAY...UPPER LOW CATCHES UP WITH SURFACE LOW AND STACKS UP.
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH SPINNING AROUND SURFACE LOW WILL CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST SD...TAPPING INTO 35-45KTS 850MB WINDS. AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT THIS MORNING WOULD EXPECT GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WINDS OVER NORTHWEST
SD...MAINLY FROM K2WX TO KD07. SHARP CUTOFF TO HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED
GIVEN STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW. SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROMOTE DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PROMOTE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY RESULT IN
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND THE ECMWF KEEPING FLOW
MORE ZONAL AS A CANADIAN TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE. WHILE BOTH
SOLUTIONS HAVE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE ECMWF IS HINTING AT A SLIGHTLY MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN THAN THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY
AND NORTHERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
FAR NORTHWESTERN SD...WHERE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KT CAN BE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ025-032-072-073.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS63 KUNR 281102
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
502 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST SK WITH COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL NE. MCS IS PUSHING EAST OF CWA AS UPPER LOW SPINS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT AND 70KT JET STREAK PUSHES DRY SLOT INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

TODAY...UPPER LOW CATCHES UP WITH SURFACE LOW AND STACKS UP.
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH SPINNING AROUND SURFACE LOW WILL CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST SD...TAPPING INTO 35-45KTS 850MB WINDS. AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT THIS MORNING WOULD EXPECT GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WINDS OVER NORTHWEST
SD...MAINLY FROM K2WX TO KD07. SHARP CUTOFF TO HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED
GIVEN STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW. SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROMOTE DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PROMOTE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY RESULT IN
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND THE ECMWF KEEPING FLOW
MORE ZONAL AS A CANADIAN TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE. WHILE BOTH
SOLUTIONS HAVE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE ECMWF IS HINTING AT A SLIGHTLY MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN THAN THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 502 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOLLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT...GUSTY WNW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ACROSS NW SD THIS AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED NEAR 40 KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 50 KTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ025-032-072-073.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ013-014.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE





000
FXUS63 KUNR 281102
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
502 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST SK WITH COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL NE. MCS IS PUSHING EAST OF CWA AS UPPER LOW SPINS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT AND 70KT JET STREAK PUSHES DRY SLOT INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

TODAY...UPPER LOW CATCHES UP WITH SURFACE LOW AND STACKS UP.
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH SPINNING AROUND SURFACE LOW WILL CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST SD...TAPPING INTO 35-45KTS 850MB WINDS. AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT THIS MORNING WOULD EXPECT GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WINDS OVER NORTHWEST
SD...MAINLY FROM K2WX TO KD07. SHARP CUTOFF TO HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED
GIVEN STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW. SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROMOTE DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PROMOTE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY RESULT IN
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND THE ECMWF KEEPING FLOW
MORE ZONAL AS A CANADIAN TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE. WHILE BOTH
SOLUTIONS HAVE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE ECMWF IS HINTING AT A SLIGHTLY MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN THAN THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 502 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOLLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT...GUSTY WNW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ACROSS NW SD THIS AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED NEAR 40 KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 50 KTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ025-032-072-073.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ013-014.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 281102
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
502 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST SK WITH COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL NE. MCS IS PUSHING EAST OF CWA AS UPPER LOW SPINS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT AND 70KT JET STREAK PUSHES DRY SLOT INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

TODAY...UPPER LOW CATCHES UP WITH SURFACE LOW AND STACKS UP.
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH SPINNING AROUND SURFACE LOW WILL CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST SD...TAPPING INTO 35-45KTS 850MB WINDS. AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT THIS MORNING WOULD EXPECT GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WINDS OVER NORTHWEST
SD...MAINLY FROM K2WX TO KD07. SHARP CUTOFF TO HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED
GIVEN STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW. SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROMOTE DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PROMOTE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY RESULT IN
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND THE ECMWF KEEPING FLOW
MORE ZONAL AS A CANADIAN TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE. WHILE BOTH
SOLUTIONS HAVE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE ECMWF IS HINTING AT A SLIGHTLY MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN THAN THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 502 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOLLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT...GUSTY WNW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ACROSS NW SD THIS AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED NEAR 40 KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 50 KTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ025-032-072-073.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ013-014.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE





000
FXUS63 KUNR 280836
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
236 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST SK WITH COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL NE. MCS IS PUSHING EAST OF CWA AS UPPER LOW SPINS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT AND 70KT JET STREAK PUSHES DRY SLOT INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

TODAY...UPPER LOW CATCHES UP WITH SURFACE LOW AND STACKS UP.
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH SPINNING AROUND SURFACE LOW WILL CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST SD...TAPPING INTO 35-45KTS 850MB WINDS. AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT THIS MORNING WOULD EXPECT GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WINDS OVER NORTHWEST
SD...MAINLY FROM K2WX TO KD07. SHARP CUTOFF TO HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED
GIVEN STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW. SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROMOTE DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PROMOTE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY RESULT IN
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND THE ECMWF KEEPING FLOW
MORE ZONAL AS A CANADIAN TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE. WHILE BOTH
SOLUTIONS HAVE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE ECMWF IS HINTING AT A SLIGHTLY MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN THAN THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOLLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT...GUSTY WNW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
NW SD THIS AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED NEAR 40 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 50
KTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ073.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ013-014.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE




000
FXUS63 KUNR 280836
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
236 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST SK WITH COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL NE. MCS IS PUSHING EAST OF CWA AS UPPER LOW SPINS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT AND 70KT JET STREAK PUSHES DRY SLOT INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

TODAY...UPPER LOW CATCHES UP WITH SURFACE LOW AND STACKS UP.
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH SPINNING AROUND SURFACE LOW WILL CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST SD...TAPPING INTO 35-45KTS 850MB WINDS. AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT THIS MORNING WOULD EXPECT GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WINDS OVER NORTHWEST
SD...MAINLY FROM K2WX TO KD07. SHARP CUTOFF TO HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED
GIVEN STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW. SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROMOTE DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PROMOTE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY RESULT IN
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND THE ECMWF KEEPING FLOW
MORE ZONAL AS A CANADIAN TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE. WHILE BOTH
SOLUTIONS HAVE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE ECMWF IS HINTING AT A SLIGHTLY MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN THAN THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOLLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT...GUSTY WNW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
NW SD THIS AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED NEAR 40 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 50
KTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ073.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ013-014.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE





000
FXUS63 KUNR 280426
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1026 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTION PUSHING THROUGH SCNTRL SD EXPECTED TO EXIT OUR CWFA
WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS INTENSE UPPER LOW OVER NRN ID WITH STRONG SHORT
WAVE EJECTING NEWD THRU WY. AT THE SFC...LOW CENTER IS OVER SERN
MT WITH TROF EXTENDING SWD THROUGH ERN WY...AND CDFNT LAGGING
BEHIND ABOUT 100NM. ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING ACRS ERN
WY AND IS BEGINNING TO ROOT IN THE BL EARLY THIS AFTN.

THIS AFTN/TONIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FIRING ALONG SFC
TROF AS IT ADVANCES FROM ERN WY INTO WRN SD. CAP IS STILL IN PLACE
ACRS THE WRN SD PLAINS...BUT WILL ERODE AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES WHERE
MLCAPE IN THE 1000-2000J/KG IS EXPECTED AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
RANGES FROM 30-50KTS. WHILE A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN NERN WY...THE BEST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS RESIDE OVER
WRN SD AND ESPECIALLY INTO NWRN SD. ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWFA THIS EVENING AND END IN MOST PLACES BY
MIDNIGHT. AS THE CDFNT SURGES INTO THE CWFA LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS GIVEN 4-8MB/3HR PRES
RISES. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY RISE INTO THE ADVISORY CATEGORY WHEN THE
CDFNT FIRST PUSHES THROUGH...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY
LONG SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY...DRY AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL WORK ACRS THE CWFA WITH
STACKED UPPER LOW TRACKING EWD ALONG THE CNDN/ND BORDER. 850MB
WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 40-50KT RANGE ACRS NWRN SD...WITH
GOOD MIXING RESULTING IN ADVISORY/WARNING TYPE WINDS AND WILL KEEP
THE HIGH WIND WATCH IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S...GENERALLY 60S IN THE BLKHLS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RESULTING IN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A COUPLE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT SCNTRL SD WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK. VFR
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS DEVELOPING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 7 AM MDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-073.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...13





000
FXUS63 KUNR 280426
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1026 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTION PUSHING THROUGH SCNTRL SD EXPECTED TO EXIT OUR CWFA
WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS INTENSE UPPER LOW OVER NRN ID WITH STRONG SHORT
WAVE EJECTING NEWD THRU WY. AT THE SFC...LOW CENTER IS OVER SERN
MT WITH TROF EXTENDING SWD THROUGH ERN WY...AND CDFNT LAGGING
BEHIND ABOUT 100NM. ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING ACRS ERN
WY AND IS BEGINNING TO ROOT IN THE BL EARLY THIS AFTN.

THIS AFTN/TONIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FIRING ALONG SFC
TROF AS IT ADVANCES FROM ERN WY INTO WRN SD. CAP IS STILL IN PLACE
ACRS THE WRN SD PLAINS...BUT WILL ERODE AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES WHERE
MLCAPE IN THE 1000-2000J/KG IS EXPECTED AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
RANGES FROM 30-50KTS. WHILE A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN NERN WY...THE BEST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS RESIDE OVER
WRN SD AND ESPECIALLY INTO NWRN SD. ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWFA THIS EVENING AND END IN MOST PLACES BY
MIDNIGHT. AS THE CDFNT SURGES INTO THE CWFA LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS GIVEN 4-8MB/3HR PRES
RISES. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY RISE INTO THE ADVISORY CATEGORY WHEN THE
CDFNT FIRST PUSHES THROUGH...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY
LONG SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY...DRY AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL WORK ACRS THE CWFA WITH
STACKED UPPER LOW TRACKING EWD ALONG THE CNDN/ND BORDER. 850MB
WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 40-50KT RANGE ACRS NWRN SD...WITH
GOOD MIXING RESULTING IN ADVISORY/WARNING TYPE WINDS AND WILL KEEP
THE HIGH WIND WATCH IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S...GENERALLY 60S IN THE BLKHLS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RESULTING IN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A COUPLE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT SCNTRL SD WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK. VFR
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS DEVELOPING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 7 AM MDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-073.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 272006
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
206 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS INTENSE UPPER LOW OVER NRN ID WITH STRONG SHORT
WAVE EJECTING NEWD THRU WY. AT THE SFC...LOW CENTER IS OVER SERN
MT WITH TROF EXTENDING SWD THROUGH ERN WY...AND CDFNT LAGGING
BEHIND ABOUT 100NM. ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING ACRS ERN
WY AND IS BEGINNING TO ROOT IN THE BL EARLY THIS AFTN.

THIS AFTN/TONIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FIRING ALONG SFC
TROF AS IT ADVANCES FROM ERN WY INTO WRN SD. CAP IS STILL IN PLACE
ACRS THE WRN SD PLAINS...BUT WILL ERODE AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES WHERE
MLCAPE IN THE 1000-2000J/KG IS EXPECTED AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
RANGES FROM 30-50KTS. WHILE A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN NERN WY...THE BEST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS RESIDE OVER
WRN SD AND ESPECIALLY INTO NWRN SD. ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWFA THIS EVENING AND END IN MOST PLACES BY
MIDNIGHT. AS THE CDFNT SURGES INTO THE CWFA LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS GIVEN 4-8MB/3HR PRES
RISES. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY RISE INTO THE ADVISORY CATEGORY WHEN THE
CDFNT FIRST PUSHES THROUGH...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY
LONG SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY...DRY AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL WORK ACRS THE CWFA WITH
STACKED UPPER LOW TRACKING EWD ALONG THE CNDN/ND BORDER. 850MB
WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 40-50KT RANGE ACRS NWRN SD...WITH
GOOD MIXING RESULTING IN ADVISORY/WARNING TYPE WINDS AND WILL KEEP
THE HIGH WIND WATCH IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S...GENERALLY 60S IN THE BLKHLS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RESULTING IN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A COUPLE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TS AS
WELL AS LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND TNGT AND TUES. AHEAD OF
THE LOW...VERY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER
AIR INTO NERN WY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE RED FLAG CONDITIONS INTO THE EVNG. ISOLD-
SCT TSRA ALSO WILL CROSS THE AERA...AND COULD RESULT IN DRY
LIGHTNING BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO WRN SD. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-073.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
     WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...13





000
FXUS63 KUNR 272006
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
206 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS INTENSE UPPER LOW OVER NRN ID WITH STRONG SHORT
WAVE EJECTING NEWD THRU WY. AT THE SFC...LOW CENTER IS OVER SERN
MT WITH TROF EXTENDING SWD THROUGH ERN WY...AND CDFNT LAGGING
BEHIND ABOUT 100NM. ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING ACRS ERN
WY AND IS BEGINNING TO ROOT IN THE BL EARLY THIS AFTN.

THIS AFTN/TONIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FIRING ALONG SFC
TROF AS IT ADVANCES FROM ERN WY INTO WRN SD. CAP IS STILL IN PLACE
ACRS THE WRN SD PLAINS...BUT WILL ERODE AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES WHERE
MLCAPE IN THE 1000-2000J/KG IS EXPECTED AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
RANGES FROM 30-50KTS. WHILE A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN NERN WY...THE BEST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS RESIDE OVER
WRN SD AND ESPECIALLY INTO NWRN SD. ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWFA THIS EVENING AND END IN MOST PLACES BY
MIDNIGHT. AS THE CDFNT SURGES INTO THE CWFA LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS GIVEN 4-8MB/3HR PRES
RISES. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY RISE INTO THE ADVISORY CATEGORY WHEN THE
CDFNT FIRST PUSHES THROUGH...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY
LONG SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY...DRY AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL WORK ACRS THE CWFA WITH
STACKED UPPER LOW TRACKING EWD ALONG THE CNDN/ND BORDER. 850MB
WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 40-50KT RANGE ACRS NWRN SD...WITH
GOOD MIXING RESULTING IN ADVISORY/WARNING TYPE WINDS AND WILL KEEP
THE HIGH WIND WATCH IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S...GENERALLY 60S IN THE BLKHLS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RESULTING IN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A COUPLE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TS AS
WELL AS LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND TNGT AND TUES. AHEAD OF
THE LOW...VERY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER
AIR INTO NERN WY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE RED FLAG CONDITIONS INTO THE EVNG. ISOLD-
SCT TSRA ALSO WILL CROSS THE AERA...AND COULD RESULT IN DRY
LIGHTNING BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO WRN SD. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-073.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
     WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...13




000
FXUS63 KUNR 271743
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1143 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH NERN WY ATTM PRODUCING AREAS OF BKN MID
LVL CLOUDS AND A FEW -TSRA...AND PREVIOUSLY ADDED THIS TO FCST.
MORE ROBUST WAVE STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TODAY AHEAD OF A
STRONG CDFNT. BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND CAMS HAVE CUT BACK ON
POPS A BIT IN THE EAST/SOUTH INTO THIS EVENING...WITH BEST
CONCENTRATION OF LIFT EXPECTED OVER NWRN SD. SVR PARAMETERS IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA...ESPECIALLY NWRN SD. WILL LAUNCH A
SPECIAL 20Z SOUNDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. AN MCS WAS JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND WAS
BEING AIDED BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW. AT
THE SURFACE A LOW WAS OVER CNTRL WY WITH AN EXTENSION TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS ERN MT. THE MCS TO OUR NORTHEAST HAS TRIGGERED
GRAVITY WAVES PER THE KUDX WSR-88D AND THESE WERE PROPAGATING TO
THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE BLKHLS...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A MOIST
EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

FOR TODAY AND TNGT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO ERN MT WITH A POTENT
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH (-3SD H5 ANOMALIES) EJECTING ACROSS THE CWA.
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINED WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND BUOYANCY
WILL LEAD TO SCT SEVERE TSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A LEE TROUGH/
DRYLINE EARLY THIS AFTN OVER NERN WY AND THEN PROGRESSING ACROSS
WRN SD LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE (+3SD
850MB T ANOMALIES) ALSO WILL RESULT IN HOT WEATHER AGAIN TODAY...
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE
AREA TNGT. THIS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS NERN WY...SEE FIRE WX DISC BELOW. TSTORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE CWA BY 09Z.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN ND TUESDAY AND THEN NORTH OF MN
BY WEDS MRNG. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWA UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
COLD ADVECTION FOR TUES...LEADING TO RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NRN 2/3 OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF 5
TO 7 FOR WESTERLY 850-MB WINDS ACROSS NWRN SD...WILL ISSUE A HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR TUES FOR THE PLAINS OF NWRN SD. WINDS WILL STILL BE
GUSTY TUES NGT BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...SOME
WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO NWRN SD TUES...BUT EXPECT
THEM TO STAY NORTH GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
CWA THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE SLIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TS AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND TNGT AND TUES. AHEAD OF
THE LOW...VERY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO NERN
WY. THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTN/EVNG. ISOLD-SCT TSRA
ALSO WILL DEVELOP FROM 18-21Z...AND COULD RESULT IN DRY LIGHTNING
BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO WRN SD. FROM 21-03Z...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS NERN WY AND BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. BECAUSE OF
THE RECENT DRYING OF FUELS...THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER NERN WY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-073.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...BUNKERS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 271743
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1143 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH NERN WY ATTM PRODUCING AREAS OF BKN MID
LVL CLOUDS AND A FEW -TSRA...AND PREVIOUSLY ADDED THIS TO FCST.
MORE ROBUST WAVE STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TODAY AHEAD OF A
STRONG CDFNT. BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND CAMS HAVE CUT BACK ON
POPS A BIT IN THE EAST/SOUTH INTO THIS EVENING...WITH BEST
CONCENTRATION OF LIFT EXPECTED OVER NWRN SD. SVR PARAMETERS IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA...ESPECIALLY NWRN SD. WILL LAUNCH A
SPECIAL 20Z SOUNDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. AN MCS WAS JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND WAS
BEING AIDED BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW. AT
THE SURFACE A LOW WAS OVER CNTRL WY WITH AN EXTENSION TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS ERN MT. THE MCS TO OUR NORTHEAST HAS TRIGGERED
GRAVITY WAVES PER THE KUDX WSR-88D AND THESE WERE PROPAGATING TO
THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE BLKHLS...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A MOIST
EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

FOR TODAY AND TNGT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO ERN MT WITH A POTENT
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH (-3SD H5 ANOMALIES) EJECTING ACROSS THE CWA.
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINED WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND BUOYANCY
WILL LEAD TO SCT SEVERE TSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A LEE TROUGH/
DRYLINE EARLY THIS AFTN OVER NERN WY AND THEN PROGRESSING ACROSS
WRN SD LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE (+3SD
850MB T ANOMALIES) ALSO WILL RESULT IN HOT WEATHER AGAIN TODAY...
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE
AREA TNGT. THIS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS NERN WY...SEE FIRE WX DISC BELOW. TSTORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE CWA BY 09Z.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN ND TUESDAY AND THEN NORTH OF MN
BY WEDS MRNG. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWA UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
COLD ADVECTION FOR TUES...LEADING TO RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NRN 2/3 OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF 5
TO 7 FOR WESTERLY 850-MB WINDS ACROSS NWRN SD...WILL ISSUE A HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR TUES FOR THE PLAINS OF NWRN SD. WINDS WILL STILL BE
GUSTY TUES NGT BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...SOME
WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO NWRN SD TUES...BUT EXPECT
THEM TO STAY NORTH GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
CWA THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE SLIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TS AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND TNGT AND TUES. AHEAD OF
THE LOW...VERY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO NERN
WY. THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTN/EVNG. ISOLD-SCT TSRA
ALSO WILL DEVELOP FROM 18-21Z...AND COULD RESULT IN DRY LIGHTNING
BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO WRN SD. FROM 21-03Z...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS NERN WY AND BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. BECAUSE OF
THE RECENT DRYING OF FUELS...THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER NERN WY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-073.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...BUNKERS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 271633
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1033 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH NERN WY ATTM PRODUCING AREAS OF BKN MID
LVL CLOUDS AND A FEW -TSRA...AND PREVIOUSLY ADDED THIS TO FCST.
MORE ROBUST WAVE STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TODAY AHEAD OF A
STRONG CDFNT. BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND CAMS HAVE CUT BACK ON
POPS A BIT IN THE EAST/SOUTH INTO THIS EVENING...WITH BEST
CONCENTRATION OF LIFT EXPECTED OVER NWRN SD. SVR PARAMETERS IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA...ESPECIALLY NWRN SD. WILL LAUNCH A
SPECIAL 20Z SOUNDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. AN MCS WAS JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND WAS
BEING AIDED BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW. AT
THE SURFACE A LOW WAS OVER CNTRL WY WITH AN EXTENSION TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS ERN MT. THE MCS TO OUR NORTHEAST HAS TRIGGERED
GRAVITY WAVES PER THE KUDX WSR-88D AND THESE WERE PROPAGATING TO
THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE BLKHLS...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A MOIST
EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

FOR TODAY AND TNGT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO ERN MT WITH A POTENT
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH (-3SD H5 ANOMALIES) EJECTING ACROSS THE CWA.
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINED WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND BUOYANCY
WILL LEAD TO SCT SEVERE TSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A LEE TROUGH/
DRYLINE EARLY THIS AFTN OVER NERN WY AND THEN PROGRESSING ACROSS
WRN SD LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE (+3SD
850MB T ANOMALIES) ALSO WILL RESULT IN HOT WEATHER AGAIN TODAY...
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE
AREA TNGT. THIS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS NERN WY...SEE FIRE WX DISC BELOW. TSTORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE CWA BY 09Z.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN ND TUESDAY AND THEN NORTH OF MN
BY WEDS MRNG. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWA UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
COLD ADVECTION FOR TUES...LEADING TO RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NRN 2/3 OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF 5
TO 7 FOR WESTERLY 850-MB WINDS ACROSS NWRN SD...WILL ISSUE A HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR TUES FOR THE PLAINS OF NWRN SD. WINDS WILL STILL BE
GUSTY TUES NGT BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...SOME
WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO NWRN SD TUES...BUT EXPECT
THEM TO STAY NORTH GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
CWA THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE SLIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TS AS
WELL AS LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND TNGT AND TUES. AHEAD OF
THE LOW...VERY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO NERN
WY. THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTN/EVNG. ISOLD-SCT TSRA
ALSO WILL DEVELOP FROM 18-21Z...AND COULD RESULT IN DRY LIGHTNING
BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO WRN SD. FROM 21-03Z...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS NERN WY AND BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. BECAUSE OF
THE RECENT DRYING OF FUELS...THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER NERN WY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-073.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
     WYZ259-297-298.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...BUNKERS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 271633
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1033 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH NERN WY ATTM PRODUCING AREAS OF BKN MID
LVL CLOUDS AND A FEW -TSRA...AND PREVIOUSLY ADDED THIS TO FCST.
MORE ROBUST WAVE STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TODAY AHEAD OF A
STRONG CDFNT. BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND CAMS HAVE CUT BACK ON
POPS A BIT IN THE EAST/SOUTH INTO THIS EVENING...WITH BEST
CONCENTRATION OF LIFT EXPECTED OVER NWRN SD. SVR PARAMETERS IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA...ESPECIALLY NWRN SD. WILL LAUNCH A
SPECIAL 20Z SOUNDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. AN MCS WAS JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND WAS
BEING AIDED BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW. AT
THE SURFACE A LOW WAS OVER CNTRL WY WITH AN EXTENSION TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS ERN MT. THE MCS TO OUR NORTHEAST HAS TRIGGERED
GRAVITY WAVES PER THE KUDX WSR-88D AND THESE WERE PROPAGATING TO
THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE BLKHLS...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A MOIST
EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

FOR TODAY AND TNGT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO ERN MT WITH A POTENT
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH (-3SD H5 ANOMALIES) EJECTING ACROSS THE CWA.
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINED WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND BUOYANCY
WILL LEAD TO SCT SEVERE TSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A LEE TROUGH/
DRYLINE EARLY THIS AFTN OVER NERN WY AND THEN PROGRESSING ACROSS
WRN SD LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE (+3SD
850MB T ANOMALIES) ALSO WILL RESULT IN HOT WEATHER AGAIN TODAY...
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE
AREA TNGT. THIS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS NERN WY...SEE FIRE WX DISC BELOW. TSTORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE CWA BY 09Z.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN ND TUESDAY AND THEN NORTH OF MN
BY WEDS MRNG. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWA UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
COLD ADVECTION FOR TUES...LEADING TO RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NRN 2/3 OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF 5
TO 7 FOR WESTERLY 850-MB WINDS ACROSS NWRN SD...WILL ISSUE A HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR TUES FOR THE PLAINS OF NWRN SD. WINDS WILL STILL BE
GUSTY TUES NGT BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...SOME
WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO NWRN SD TUES...BUT EXPECT
THEM TO STAY NORTH GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
CWA THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE SLIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TS AS
WELL AS LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND TNGT AND TUES. AHEAD OF
THE LOW...VERY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO NERN
WY. THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTN/EVNG. ISOLD-SCT TSRA
ALSO WILL DEVELOP FROM 18-21Z...AND COULD RESULT IN DRY LIGHTNING
BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO WRN SD. FROM 21-03Z...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS NERN WY AND BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. BECAUSE OF
THE RECENT DRYING OF FUELS...THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER NERN WY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-073.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
     WYZ259-297-298.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...BUNKERS





000
FXUS63 KUNR 271059
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
459 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. AN MCS WAS JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND WAS
BEING AIDED BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW. AT
THE SURFACE A LOW WAS OVER CNTRL WY WITH AN EXTENSION TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS ERN MT. THE MCS TO OUR NORTHEAST HAS TRIGGERED
GRAVITY WAVES PER THE KUDX WSR-88D AND THESE WERE PROPAGATING TO
THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE BLKHLS...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A MOIST
EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

FOR TODAY AND TNGT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO ERN MT WITH A POTENT
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH (-3SD H5 ANOMALIES) EJECTING ACROSS THE CWA.
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINED WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND BUOYANCY
WILL LEAD TO SCT SEVERE TSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A LEE TROUGH/
DRYLINE EARLY THIS AFTN OVER NERN WY AND THEN PROGRESSING ACROSS
WRN SD LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE (+3SD
850MB T ANOMALIES) ALSO WILL RESULT IN HOT WEATHER AGAIN TODAY...
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE
AREA TNGT. THIS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS NERN WY...SEE FIRE WX DISC BELOW. TSTORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE CWA BY 09Z.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN ND TUESDAY AND THEN NORTH OF MN
BY WEDS MRNG. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWA UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
COLD ADVECTION FOR TUES...LEADING TO RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NRN 2/3 OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF 5
TO 7 FOR WESTERLY 850-MB WINDS ACROSS NWRN SD...WILL ISSUE A HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR TUES FOR THE PLAINS OF NWRN SD. WINDS WILL STILL BE
GUSTY TUES NGT BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...SOME
WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO NWRN SD TUES...BUT EXPECT
THEM TO STAY NORTH GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
CWA THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE SLIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TS AS
WELL AS LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND TNGT AND TUES. AHEAD OF
THE LOW...VERY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO NERN
WY. THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTN/EVNG. ISOLD-SCT TSRA
ALSO WILL DEVELOP FROM 18-21Z...AND COULD RESULT IN DRY LIGHTNING
BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO WRN SD. FROM 21-03Z...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS NERN WY AND BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. BECAUSE OF
THE RECENT DRYING OF FUELS...THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER NERN WY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-073.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
     WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...BUNKERS





000
FXUS63 KUNR 271059
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
459 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. AN MCS WAS JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND WAS
BEING AIDED BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW. AT
THE SURFACE A LOW WAS OVER CNTRL WY WITH AN EXTENSION TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS ERN MT. THE MCS TO OUR NORTHEAST HAS TRIGGERED
GRAVITY WAVES PER THE KUDX WSR-88D AND THESE WERE PROPAGATING TO
THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE BLKHLS...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A MOIST
EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

FOR TODAY AND TNGT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO ERN MT WITH A POTENT
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH (-3SD H5 ANOMALIES) EJECTING ACROSS THE CWA.
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINED WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND BUOYANCY
WILL LEAD TO SCT SEVERE TSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A LEE TROUGH/
DRYLINE EARLY THIS AFTN OVER NERN WY AND THEN PROGRESSING ACROSS
WRN SD LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE (+3SD
850MB T ANOMALIES) ALSO WILL RESULT IN HOT WEATHER AGAIN TODAY...
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE
AREA TNGT. THIS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS NERN WY...SEE FIRE WX DISC BELOW. TSTORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE CWA BY 09Z.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN ND TUESDAY AND THEN NORTH OF MN
BY WEDS MRNG. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWA UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
COLD ADVECTION FOR TUES...LEADING TO RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NRN 2/3 OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF 5
TO 7 FOR WESTERLY 850-MB WINDS ACROSS NWRN SD...WILL ISSUE A HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR TUES FOR THE PLAINS OF NWRN SD. WINDS WILL STILL BE
GUSTY TUES NGT BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...SOME
WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO NWRN SD TUES...BUT EXPECT
THEM TO STAY NORTH GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
CWA THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE SLIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TS AS
WELL AS LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND TNGT AND TUES. AHEAD OF
THE LOW...VERY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO NERN
WY. THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTN/EVNG. ISOLD-SCT TSRA
ALSO WILL DEVELOP FROM 18-21Z...AND COULD RESULT IN DRY LIGHTNING
BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO WRN SD. FROM 21-03Z...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS NERN WY AND BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. BECAUSE OF
THE RECENT DRYING OF FUELS...THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER NERN WY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-073.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
     WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...BUNKERS




000
FXUS63 KUNR 271059
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
459 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. AN MCS WAS JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND WAS
BEING AIDED BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW. AT
THE SURFACE A LOW WAS OVER CNTRL WY WITH AN EXTENSION TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS ERN MT. THE MCS TO OUR NORTHEAST HAS TRIGGERED
GRAVITY WAVES PER THE KUDX WSR-88D AND THESE WERE PROPAGATING TO
THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE BLKHLS...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A MOIST
EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

FOR TODAY AND TNGT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO ERN MT WITH A POTENT
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH (-3SD H5 ANOMALIES) EJECTING ACROSS THE CWA.
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINED WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND BUOYANCY
WILL LEAD TO SCT SEVERE TSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A LEE TROUGH/
DRYLINE EARLY THIS AFTN OVER NERN WY AND THEN PROGRESSING ACROSS
WRN SD LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE (+3SD
850MB T ANOMALIES) ALSO WILL RESULT IN HOT WEATHER AGAIN TODAY...
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE
AREA TNGT. THIS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS NERN WY...SEE FIRE WX DISC BELOW. TSTORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE CWA BY 09Z.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN ND TUESDAY AND THEN NORTH OF MN
BY WEDS MRNG. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWA UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
COLD ADVECTION FOR TUES...LEADING TO RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NRN 2/3 OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF 5
TO 7 FOR WESTERLY 850-MB WINDS ACROSS NWRN SD...WILL ISSUE A HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR TUES FOR THE PLAINS OF NWRN SD. WINDS WILL STILL BE
GUSTY TUES NGT BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...SOME
WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO NWRN SD TUES...BUT EXPECT
THEM TO STAY NORTH GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
CWA THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE SLIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TS AS
WELL AS LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/ND TNGT AND TUES. AHEAD OF
THE LOW...VERY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO NERN
WY. THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTN/EVNG. ISOLD-SCT TSRA
ALSO WILL DEVELOP FROM 18-21Z...AND COULD RESULT IN DRY LIGHTNING
BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO WRN SD. FROM 21-03Z...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS NERN WY AND BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. BECAUSE OF
THE RECENT DRYING OF FUELS...THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER NERN WY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-073.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
     WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...BUNKERS





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