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000
FXUS63 KUNR 152320
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
520 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 108 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS...TOWARD WY. A JET STREAK WAS ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH...AND THUS THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY.
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND IT WILL
REMAIN MILD AS A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL REACH ERN WY BY 00Z.
THIS EVENING THE FAST-MOVING...COMPACT...BUT STRONG TROUGH WILL
SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES AND SREF/NAM/GFS/RAP MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY 06Z
SNOW WILL BE OVER THE HIGHEST BLKHLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN WY.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM...YET...PRECIP RATES WILL BE ENHANCED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES
(NEAR MOIST-NEUTRAL) AND STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW OVER THE NWRN BLKHLS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TONIGHT.

RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE WRN SD PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...BUT
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 30S WILL PRECLUDE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AT MOST 1-2 INCHES
OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NERN WY PLAINS.
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THE WAVE AND Q-G FORCING WILL MOVE EAST EARLY
AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS (850-MB WINDS OF 20-40
KT). STEEP LAPSE RATES...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
...WITH SNOW CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE BLKHLS...NERN WY...AND NWRN SD.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...BUT A WEAK SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA.


&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 108 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF
WORKS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN
SCT PCPN FOR THE REGION. TEMP FCST REMAINS TRICKY WITH WARM
ADVECTION SETTING IN FOR THE WRN 2/3RDS OF CWFA...AND HAVE
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A BIT GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PCPN. MUCH
WARMER TEMPS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRI AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE
NRN PLAINS. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PCPN EVENT...ALTHOUGH TEMPS LOOK TO
BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY LIQUID. FLAT UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. A CDFNT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. WDSPRD MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE CDFNT ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING...CHANGING TO SNOW OVER NERN WY AND THE BLKHLS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT ON THE
SD PLAINS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED OVER NERN WY AND
THE NRN BLKHLS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MRNG. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WED IN CAA. CYCLONIC
FLOW WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SCT MVFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY ISOLD IFR IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 152320
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
520 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 108 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS...TOWARD WY. A JET STREAK WAS ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH...AND THUS THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY.
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND IT WILL
REMAIN MILD AS A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL REACH ERN WY BY 00Z.
THIS EVENING THE FAST-MOVING...COMPACT...BUT STRONG TROUGH WILL
SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES AND SREF/NAM/GFS/RAP MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY 06Z
SNOW WILL BE OVER THE HIGHEST BLKHLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN WY.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM...YET...PRECIP RATES WILL BE ENHANCED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES
(NEAR MOIST-NEUTRAL) AND STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW OVER THE NWRN BLKHLS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TONIGHT.

RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE WRN SD PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...BUT
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 30S WILL PRECLUDE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AT MOST 1-2 INCHES
OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NERN WY PLAINS.
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THE WAVE AND Q-G FORCING WILL MOVE EAST EARLY
AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS (850-MB WINDS OF 20-40
KT). STEEP LAPSE RATES...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
...WITH SNOW CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE BLKHLS...NERN WY...AND NWRN SD.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...BUT A WEAK SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA.


&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 108 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF
WORKS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN
SCT PCPN FOR THE REGION. TEMP FCST REMAINS TRICKY WITH WARM
ADVECTION SETTING IN FOR THE WRN 2/3RDS OF CWFA...AND HAVE
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A BIT GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PCPN. MUCH
WARMER TEMPS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRI AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE
NRN PLAINS. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PCPN EVENT...ALTHOUGH TEMPS LOOK TO
BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY LIQUID. FLAT UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. A CDFNT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. WDSPRD MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE CDFNT ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING...CHANGING TO SNOW OVER NERN WY AND THE BLKHLS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT ON THE
SD PLAINS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED OVER NERN WY AND
THE NRN BLKHLS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MRNG. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WED IN CAA. CYCLONIC
FLOW WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SCT MVFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY ISOLD IFR IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC








000
FXUS63 KUNR 151911
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
111 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 108 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS...TOWARD WY. A JET STREAK WAS ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH...AND THUS THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY.
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND IT WILL
REMAIN MILD AS A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL REACH ERN WY BY 00Z.
THIS EVENING THE FAST-MOVING...COMPACT...BUT STRONG TROUGH WILL
SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES AND SREF/NAM/GFS/RAP MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY 06Z
SNOW WILL BE OVER THE HIGHEST BLKHLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN WY.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM...YET...PRECIP RATES WILL BE ENHANCED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES
(NEAR MOIST-NEUTRAL) AND STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW OVER THE NWRN BLKHLS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TONIGHT.

RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE WRN SD PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...BUT
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 30S WILL PRECLUDE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AT MOST 1-2 INCHES
OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NERN WY PLAINS.
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THE WAVE AND Q-G FORCING WILL MOVE EAST EARLY
AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS (850-MB WINDS OF 20-40
KT). STEEP LAPSE RATES...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
...WITH SNOW CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE BLKHLS...NERN WY...AND NWRN SD.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...BUT A WEAK SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 108 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF
WORKS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN
SCT PCPN FOR THE REGION. TEMP FCST REMAINS TRICKY WITH WARM
ADVECTION SETTING IN FOR THE WRN 2/3RDS OF CWFA...AND HAVE
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A BIT GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PCPN. MUCH
WARMER TEMPS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRI AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE
NRN PLAINS. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PCPN EVENT...ALTHOUGH TEMPS LOOK TO
BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY LIQUID. FLAT UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 108 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTN. A CDFNT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. WDSPRD MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE CDFNT ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW OVER NERN WY AND THE BLKHLS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT ON THE
SD PLAINS. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED OVER NERN WY AND THE
NRN BLKHLS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MRNG.

&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON








000
FXUS63 KUNR 151656
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1056 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH CROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH STRONG RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG SERIES OF WAVES ARE PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST...WHICH WILL BE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WARM FRONT IS
STRADDLING THE CWA...WITH TEMPS IN NE WY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...WHILE THE CNTRL SD PLAINS ARE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING EASTWARD...AND RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE CWA...THE
WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN. TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS ERN MT
AND CROSS INTO SD THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS ARE
STILL HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING DETAILS WITH THE PRECIP TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LATEST RUNS ARE NOW SHOWING THE PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...AFFECTING MOSTLY THE SD PLAINS SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE INTO SCNTRL SD. WENT WITH THE SREF FOR PRECIP TYPE...WITH
PRECIP STAYING AS RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT THEN
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS NE WY AND MUCH OF THE SD
PLAINS EXCEPT SCNTRL SD. PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLKHLS SOONER THIS EVENING. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 1-3 INCH
ACCUMULATION WORDING FOR THE BLKHLS. THE PLAINS COULD SEE AN INCH OR
SO OF ACCUMULATION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS ERN/CNTRL
WY WITH AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUING. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW OVER THE AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER NE WY...THE BLKHLS AND SW SD. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT MAYBE AN INCH OVER THE HILLS. LESSER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AS UPPER WAVES CONTINUE TO
PUSH THROUGH.


&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON
THURSDAY...WITH DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. 03Z SREF IS NOW SHOWING 40-60% POPS ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY. HAVE TRENDED POPS UPWARD FOR THURSDAY.
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...WENT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW. FLAT
UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTN. A CDFNT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. WDSPRD MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE CDFNT ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW OVER NERN WY AND THE BLKHLS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT ON THE
SD PLAINS. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED OVER NERN WY AND THE
NRN BLKHLS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MRNG.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 150925
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
325 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH CROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH STRONG RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG SERIES OF WAVES ARE PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST...WHICH WILL BE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WARM FRONT IS
STRADDLING THE CWA...WITH TEMPS IN NE WY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...WHILE THE CNTRL SD PLAINS ARE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING EASTWARD...AND RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE CWA...THE
WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN. TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS ERN MT
AND CROSS INTO SD THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS ARE
STILL HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING DETAILS WITH THE PRECIP TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LATEST RUNS ARE NOW SHOWING THE PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...AFFECTING MOSTLY THE SD PLAINS SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE INTO SCNTRL SD. WENT WITH THE SREF FOR PRECIP TYPE...WITH
PRECIP STAYING AS RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT THEN
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS NE WY AND MUCH OF THE SD
PLAINS EXCEPT SCNTRL SD. PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLKHLS SOONER THIS EVENING. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 1-3 INCH
ACCUMULATION WORDING FOR THE BLKHLS. THE PLAINS COULD SEE AN INCH OR
SO OF ACCUMULATION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS ERN/CNTRL
WY WITH AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUING. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW OVER THE AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER NE WY...THE BLKHLS AND SW SD. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT MAYBE AN INCH OVER THE HILLS. LESSER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AS UPPER WAVES CONTINUE TO
PUSH THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON
THURSDAY...WITH DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. 03Z SREF IS NOW SHOWING 40-60% POPS ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY. HAVE TRENDED POPS UPWARD FOR THURSDAY.
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...WENT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW. FLAT
UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN THIS EVENING AND CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR VSBY EXPECTED WITH THE
SNOW.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7








000
FXUS63 KUNR 150925
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
325 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH CROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH STRONG RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG SERIES OF WAVES ARE PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST...WHICH WILL BE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WARM FRONT IS
STRADDLING THE CWA...WITH TEMPS IN NE WY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...WHILE THE CNTRL SD PLAINS ARE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING EASTWARD...AND RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE CWA...THE
WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN. TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS ERN MT
AND CROSS INTO SD THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS ARE
STILL HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING DETAILS WITH THE PRECIP TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LATEST RUNS ARE NOW SHOWING THE PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...AFFECTING MOSTLY THE SD PLAINS SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE INTO SCNTRL SD. WENT WITH THE SREF FOR PRECIP TYPE...WITH
PRECIP STAYING AS RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT THEN
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS NE WY AND MUCH OF THE SD
PLAINS EXCEPT SCNTRL SD. PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLKHLS SOONER THIS EVENING. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 1-3 INCH
ACCUMULATION WORDING FOR THE BLKHLS. THE PLAINS COULD SEE AN INCH OR
SO OF ACCUMULATION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS ERN/CNTRL
WY WITH AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUING. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW OVER THE AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER NE WY...THE BLKHLS AND SW SD. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT MAYBE AN INCH OVER THE HILLS. LESSER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AS UPPER WAVES CONTINUE TO
PUSH THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON
THURSDAY...WITH DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. 03Z SREF IS NOW SHOWING 40-60% POPS ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY. HAVE TRENDED POPS UPWARD FOR THURSDAY.
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...WENT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW. FLAT
UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN THIS EVENING AND CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR VSBY EXPECTED WITH THE
SNOW.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS63 KUNR 150501
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1101 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE SRN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES INTO ERN MT/WRN ND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER
SRN HUDSON BAY WITH TROF DROPPING TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WRN CONUS BRINGING FAST
N/NWRLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING CLOUDS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AS STRONG SHORT WAVE PUSHES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND STARTS ITS APPROACH.

ON TUESDAY...POTENT SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN RIDGE WHILE
SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER ERN MT. WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S OVER THE SERN CWA.
SFC LOW PUSHES INTO THE NWRN CWA BY EARLY EVENING AND S CTRL/SERN
SD OVERNIGHT WITH COLD FRONT WRAPPING IN. POTENT SHORT WAVE PUSHES
INTO THE CWA WITH AREAS OF PRECIP DEVELOPING. PRECIP SHOULD START
OUT AS RAIN OVER MOST AREAS...WITH A TRANSITION TOWARDS SNOW AS
COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND FRONT. GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES/EXPECTED
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER THE NRN BLKHLS WHERE FROUDE ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS ON WED BRINGING RAIN/SNOW TO THE REGION ALONG WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS AND COLDER TEMPS...WITH RELATIVELY STRONG UPSLOPE SIGNATURE
CONTINUING IN THE NRN BLKHLS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. PCPN CHANCES
WILL BE LOWER WED NIGHT AS STRONG SHORT WAVE PULLS EAST OF THE
REGION...BUT WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FCST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
MAIN UPPER TROF FINALLY WORKS EAST. NEXT SHORT WAVE QUICKLY MOVES IN
BY FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NEXT POSSIBLE ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW...MAINLY FOR
OUR NRN ZONES. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD SE INTO THE FA TUE EVENING OVER FAR NW PORTIONS OF
THE FA BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD NW TO SE WITH VIS
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED NE WY AND ESP OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC








000
FXUS63 KUNR 150501
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1101 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE SRN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES INTO ERN MT/WRN ND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER
SRN HUDSON BAY WITH TROF DROPPING TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WRN CONUS BRINGING FAST
N/NWRLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING CLOUDS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AS STRONG SHORT WAVE PUSHES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND STARTS ITS APPROACH.

ON TUESDAY...POTENT SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN RIDGE WHILE
SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER ERN MT. WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S OVER THE SERN CWA.
SFC LOW PUSHES INTO THE NWRN CWA BY EARLY EVENING AND S CTRL/SERN
SD OVERNIGHT WITH COLD FRONT WRAPPING IN. POTENT SHORT WAVE PUSHES
INTO THE CWA WITH AREAS OF PRECIP DEVELOPING. PRECIP SHOULD START
OUT AS RAIN OVER MOST AREAS...WITH A TRANSITION TOWARDS SNOW AS
COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND FRONT. GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES/EXPECTED
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER THE NRN BLKHLS WHERE FROUDE ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS ON WED BRINGING RAIN/SNOW TO THE REGION ALONG WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS AND COLDER TEMPS...WITH RELATIVELY STRONG UPSLOPE SIGNATURE
CONTINUING IN THE NRN BLKHLS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. PCPN CHANCES
WILL BE LOWER WED NIGHT AS STRONG SHORT WAVE PULLS EAST OF THE
REGION...BUT WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FCST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
MAIN UPPER TROF FINALLY WORKS EAST. NEXT SHORT WAVE QUICKLY MOVES IN
BY FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NEXT POSSIBLE ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW...MAINLY FOR
OUR NRN ZONES. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD SE INTO THE FA TUE EVENING OVER FAR NW PORTIONS OF
THE FA BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD NW TO SE WITH VIS
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED NE WY AND ESP OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 142343
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
543 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE SRN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES INTO ERN MT/WRN ND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER
SRN HUDSON BAY WITH TROF DROPPING TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WRN CONUS BRINGING FAST
N/NWRLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING CLOUDS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AS STRONG SHORT WAVE PUSHES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND STARTS ITS APPROACH.

ON TUESDAY...POTENT SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN RIDGE WHILE
SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER ERN MT. WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S OVER THE SERN CWA.
SFC LOW PUSHES INTO THE NWRN CWA BY EARLY EVENING AND S CTRL/SERN
SD OVERNIGHT WITH COLD FRONT WRAPPING IN. POTENT SHORT WAVE PUSHES
INTO THE CWA WITH AREAS OF PRECIP DEVELOPING. PRECIP SHOULD START
OUT AS RAIN OVER MOST AREAS...WITH A TRANSITION TOWARDS SNOW AS
COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND FRONT. GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES/EXPECTED
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER THE NRN BLKHLS WHERE FROUDE ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS ON WED BRINGING RAIN/SNOW TO THE REGION ALONG WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS AND COLDER TEMPS...WITH RELATIVELY STRONG UPSLOPE SIGNATURE
CONTINUING IN THE NRN BLKHLS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. PCPN CHANCES
WILL BE LOWER WED NIGHT AS STRONG SHORT WAVE PULLS EAST OF THE
REGION...BUT WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FCST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
MAIN UPPER TROF FINALLY WORKS EAST. NEXT SHORT WAVE QUICKLY MOVES IN
BY FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NEXT POSSIBLE ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW...MAINLY FOR
OUR NRN ZONES. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITONS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE FA...MAINLY
NE WY BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT AND LIKELY JUST OUTSIDE THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC







000
FXUS63 KUNR 142343
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
543 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE SRN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES INTO ERN MT/WRN ND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER
SRN HUDSON BAY WITH TROF DROPPING TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WRN CONUS BRINGING FAST
N/NWRLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING CLOUDS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AS STRONG SHORT WAVE PUSHES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND STARTS ITS APPROACH.

ON TUESDAY...POTENT SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN RIDGE WHILE
SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER ERN MT. WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S OVER THE SERN CWA.
SFC LOW PUSHES INTO THE NWRN CWA BY EARLY EVENING AND S CTRL/SERN
SD OVERNIGHT WITH COLD FRONT WRAPPING IN. POTENT SHORT WAVE PUSHES
INTO THE CWA WITH AREAS OF PRECIP DEVELOPING. PRECIP SHOULD START
OUT AS RAIN OVER MOST AREAS...WITH A TRANSITION TOWARDS SNOW AS
COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND FRONT. GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES/EXPECTED
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER THE NRN BLKHLS WHERE FROUDE ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS ON WED BRINGING RAIN/SNOW TO THE REGION ALONG WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS AND COLDER TEMPS...WITH RELATIVELY STRONG UPSLOPE SIGNATURE
CONTINUING IN THE NRN BLKHLS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. PCPN CHANCES
WILL BE LOWER WED NIGHT AS STRONG SHORT WAVE PULLS EAST OF THE
REGION...BUT WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FCST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
MAIN UPPER TROF FINALLY WORKS EAST. NEXT SHORT WAVE QUICKLY MOVES IN
BY FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NEXT POSSIBLE ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW...MAINLY FOR
OUR NRN ZONES. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITONS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE FA...MAINLY
NE WY BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT AND LIKELY JUST OUTSIDE THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC








000
FXUS63 KUNR 142057
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
257 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE SRN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES INTO ERN MT/WRN ND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER
SRN HUDSON BAY WITH TROF DROPPING TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WRN CONUS BRINGING FAST
N/NWRLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING CLOUDS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AS STRONG SHORT WAVE PUSHES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND STARTS ITS APPROACH.

ON TUESDAY...POTENT SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN RIDGE WHILE
SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER ERN MT. WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S OVER THE SERN CWA.
SFC LOW PUSHES INTO THE NWRN CWA BY EARLY EVENING AND S CTRL/SERN
SD OVERNIGHT WITH COLD FRONT WRAPPING IN. POTENT SHORT WAVE PUSHES
INTO THE CWA WITH AREAS OF PRECIP DEVELOPING. PRECIP SHOULD START
OUT AS RAIN OVER MOST AREAS...WITH A TRANSITION TOWARDS SNOW AS
COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND FRONT. GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES/EXPECTED
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER THE NRN BLKHLS WHERE FROUDE ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS ON WED BRINGING RAIN/SNOW TO THE REGION ALONG WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS AND COLDER TEMPS...WITH RELATIVELY STRONG UPSLOPE SIGNATURE
CONTINUING IN THE NRN BLKHLS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. PCPN CHANCES
WILL BE LOWER WED NIGHT AS STRONG SHORT WAVE PULLS EAST OF THE
REGION...BUT WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FCST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
MAIN UPPER TROF FINALLY WORKS EAST. NEXT SHORT WAVE QUICKLY MOVES IN
BY FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NEXT POSSIBLE ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW...MAINLY FOR
OUR NRN ZONES. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON









000
FXUS63 KUNR 141708
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

MODEST WAVE MOVING THROUGH NWRLY UPPER FLOW IS PRODUCING A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER WRN/S CTRL SD. HAVE PUT SOME LOW POPS IN
TO ADDRESS THIS AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH THE MAIN AXIS CROSSING WRN SD
AT THIS TIME. STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS
BUILDING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
OVER SW ND...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT OVER ERN MT INTO
CNTRL WY. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT OVER THE CWA...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SNOW ARE CROSSING THE WESTERN ND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
PASSING WAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TO THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT A FEW OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY CLIP PARTS OF NW/CNTRL SD THIS MORNING. HAVE THROWN
IN MENTION OF OCCASIONAL FLURRIES JUST TILL 15Z. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY...BUT BREAK
DOWN AS A STRONG WAVE CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS INTO ERN MONTANA WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF
IT. TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS INTO SD WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA. PRECIP WILL
START AS RAIN...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL AS THERE ARE LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN GETTING
MEASURABLE PRECIP TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY. THE COLDER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BUT UNSURE HOW MUCH AT THIS TIME.


&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

MODELS IN DECENT WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE CARVING OUT A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
NAM/GFS/ECMWF WITH BEST FORCING THOUGH THE DAY...WITH GFS TRENDING
MUCH DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY FOLLOWED SREF POPS/QPF.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIX THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER
TROF REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

AREA OF MVFR CIGS WITH FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ON THE SD PLAINS
THROUGH THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...77
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 141708
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

MODEST WAVE MOVING THROUGH NWRLY UPPER FLOW IS PRODUCING A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER WRN/S CTRL SD. HAVE PUT SOME LOW POPS IN
TO ADDRESS THIS AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH THE MAIN AXIS CROSSING WRN SD
AT THIS TIME. STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS
BUILDING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
OVER SW ND...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT OVER ERN MT INTO
CNTRL WY. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT OVER THE CWA...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SNOW ARE CROSSING THE WESTERN ND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
PASSING WAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TO THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT A FEW OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY CLIP PARTS OF NW/CNTRL SD THIS MORNING. HAVE THROWN
IN MENTION OF OCCASIONAL FLURRIES JUST TILL 15Z. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY...BUT BREAK
DOWN AS A STRONG WAVE CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS INTO ERN MONTANA WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF
IT. TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS INTO SD WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA. PRECIP WILL
START AS RAIN...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL AS THERE ARE LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN GETTING
MEASURABLE PRECIP TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY. THE COLDER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BUT UNSURE HOW MUCH AT THIS TIME.


&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

MODELS IN DECENT WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE CARVING OUT A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
NAM/GFS/ECMWF WITH BEST FORCING THOUGH THE DAY...WITH GFS TRENDING
MUCH DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY FOLLOWED SREF POPS/QPF.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIX THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER
TROF REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

AREA OF MVFR CIGS WITH FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ON THE SD PLAINS
THROUGH THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...77
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON








000
FXUS63 KUNR 141618
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1018 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

MODEST WAVE MOVING THROUGH NWRLY UPPER FLOW IS PRODUCING A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER WRN/S CTRL SD. HAVE PUT SOME LOW POPS IN
TO ADDRESS THIS AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH THE MAIN AXIS CROSSING WRN SD
AT THIS TIME. STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS
BUILDING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
OVER SW ND...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT OVER ERN MT INTO
CNTRL WY. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT OVER THE CWA...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SNOW ARE CROSSING THE WESTERN ND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
PASSING WAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TO THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT A FEW OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY CLIP PARTS OF NW/CNTRL SD THIS MORNING. HAVE THROWN
IN MENTION OF OCCASIONAL FLURRIES JUST TILL 15Z. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY...BUT BREAK
DOWN AS A STRONG WAVE CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS INTO ERN MONTANA WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF
IT. TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS INTO SD WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA. PRECIP WILL
START AS RAIN...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL AS THERE ARE LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN GETTING
MEASURABLE PRECIP TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY. THE COLDER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BUT UNSURE HOW MUCH AT THIS TIME.


&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

MODELS IN DECENT WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE CARVING OUT A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
NAM/GFS/ECMWF WITH BEST FORCING THOUGH THE DAY...WITH GFS TRENDING
MUCH DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY FOLLOWED SREF POPS/QPF.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIX THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER
TROF REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

AREA OF MVFR CIGS WITH FLURRIES WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...77
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7








000
FXUS63 KUNR 141618
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1018 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

MODEST WAVE MOVING THROUGH NWRLY UPPER FLOW IS PRODUCING A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER WRN/S CTRL SD. HAVE PUT SOME LOW POPS IN
TO ADDRESS THIS AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH THE MAIN AXIS CROSSING WRN SD
AT THIS TIME. STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS
BUILDING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
OVER SW ND...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT OVER ERN MT INTO
CNTRL WY. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT OVER THE CWA...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SNOW ARE CROSSING THE WESTERN ND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
PASSING WAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TO THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT A FEW OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY CLIP PARTS OF NW/CNTRL SD THIS MORNING. HAVE THROWN
IN MENTION OF OCCASIONAL FLURRIES JUST TILL 15Z. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY...BUT BREAK
DOWN AS A STRONG WAVE CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS INTO ERN MONTANA WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF
IT. TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS INTO SD WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA. PRECIP WILL
START AS RAIN...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL AS THERE ARE LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN GETTING
MEASURABLE PRECIP TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY. THE COLDER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BUT UNSURE HOW MUCH AT THIS TIME.


&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

MODELS IN DECENT WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE CARVING OUT A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
NAM/GFS/ECMWF WITH BEST FORCING THOUGH THE DAY...WITH GFS TRENDING
MUCH DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY FOLLOWED SREF POPS/QPF.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIX THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER
TROF REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

AREA OF MVFR CIGS WITH FLURRIES WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...77
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS63 KUNR 140901
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
301 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH THE MAIN AXIS CROSSING WRN SD
AT THIS TIME. STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS
BUILDING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
OVER SW ND...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT OVER ERN MT INTO
CNTRL WY. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT OVER THE CWA...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SNOW ARE CROSSING THE WESTERN ND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
PASSING WAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TO THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT A FEW OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY CLIP PARTS OF NW/CNTRL SD THIS MORNING. HAVE THROWN
IN MENTION OF OCCASIONAL FLURRIES JUST TILL 15Z. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY...BUT BREAK
DOWN AS A STRONG WAVE CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS INTO ERN MONTANA WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF
IT. TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS INTO SD WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA. PRECIP WILL
START AS RAIN...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL AS THERE ARE LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN GETTING
MEASURABLE PRECIP TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY. THE COLDER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BUT UNSURE HOW MUCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

MODELS IN DECENT WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE CARVING OUT A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
NAM/GFS/ECMWF WITH BEST FORCING THOUGH THE DAY...WITH GFS TRENDING
MUCH DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY FOLLOWED SREF POPS/QPF.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIX THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER
TROF REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

AREA OF MVFR CIGS WITH FLURRIES WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7








000
FXUS63 KUNR 140901
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
301 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH THE MAIN AXIS CROSSING WRN SD
AT THIS TIME. STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS
BUILDING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
OVER SW ND...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT OVER ERN MT INTO
CNTRL WY. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT OVER THE CWA...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SNOW ARE CROSSING THE WESTERN ND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
PASSING WAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TO THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT A FEW OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY CLIP PARTS OF NW/CNTRL SD THIS MORNING. HAVE THROWN
IN MENTION OF OCCASIONAL FLURRIES JUST TILL 15Z. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY...BUT BREAK
DOWN AS A STRONG WAVE CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS INTO ERN MONTANA WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF
IT. TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS INTO SD WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA. PRECIP WILL
START AS RAIN...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL AS THERE ARE LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN GETTING
MEASURABLE PRECIP TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY. THE COLDER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BUT UNSURE HOW MUCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

MODELS IN DECENT WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE CARVING OUT A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
NAM/GFS/ECMWF WITH BEST FORCING THOUGH THE DAY...WITH GFS TRENDING
MUCH DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY FOLLOWED SREF POPS/QPF.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIX THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER
TROF REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

AREA OF MVFR CIGS WITH FLURRIES WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7









000
FXUS63 KUNR 140443
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1043 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
KS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN MT. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE EAST OF THE TROF
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. REGIONAL RADARS NOW SHOW MAIN BANDS OF
PCPN ARE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...WITH SOME LINGERING
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD. SKIES HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BULK OF
CLOUDS AT THIS TIME OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE BLACK HILLS...WHERE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN
PLACE. COLD AIR HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION...WITH CURRENT TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING AS SYSTEM EXITS THE
REGION AND DRIER AIR BUILDS IN. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. A CHILLY NIGHT IS ON TAP...
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S...EVEN COLDER OVER
THE BLACK HILLS AND SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH
TUESDAY AS WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST MOVES EASTWARD. SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON MONDAY...WITH BRISK WINDS DEVELOPING AGAIN
ACROSS THE SD PLAINS...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS.


&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER TUESDAY WILL CARVE OUT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TUESDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT. MODELS ARE AGAIN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH DISPOSITION OF
UPPER TROUGH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AND OUT
OF PHASE WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/UPPER LOWS. UNCERTAINTY AGAIN
AS A RESULT...SO MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO ONGOING FORECAST/GUIDANCE
BLENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10








000
FXUS63 KUNR 140443
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1043 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
KS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN MT. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE EAST OF THE TROF
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. REGIONAL RADARS NOW SHOW MAIN BANDS OF
PCPN ARE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...WITH SOME LINGERING
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD. SKIES HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BULK OF
CLOUDS AT THIS TIME OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE BLACK HILLS...WHERE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN
PLACE. COLD AIR HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION...WITH CURRENT TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING AS SYSTEM EXITS THE
REGION AND DRIER AIR BUILDS IN. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. A CHILLY NIGHT IS ON TAP...
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S...EVEN COLDER OVER
THE BLACK HILLS AND SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH
TUESDAY AS WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST MOVES EASTWARD. SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON MONDAY...WITH BRISK WINDS DEVELOPING AGAIN
ACROSS THE SD PLAINS...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS.


&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER TUESDAY WILL CARVE OUT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TUESDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT. MODELS ARE AGAIN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH DISPOSITION OF
UPPER TROUGH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AND OUT
OF PHASE WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/UPPER LOWS. UNCERTAINTY AGAIN
AS A RESULT...SO MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO ONGOING FORECAST/GUIDANCE
BLENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS63 KUNR 132324
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
523 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
KS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN MT. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE EAST OF THE TROF
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. REGIONAL RADARS NOW SHOW MAIN BANDS OF
PCPN ARE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...WITH SOME LINGERING
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD. SKIES HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BULK OF
CLOUDS AT THIS TIME OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE BLACK HILLS...WHERE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN
PLACE. COLD AIR HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION...WITH CURRENT TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING AS SYSTEM EXITS THE
REGION AND DRIER AIR BUILDS IN. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. A CHILLY NIGHT IS ON TAP...
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S...EVEN COLDER OVER
THE BLACK HILLS AND SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH
TUESDAY AS WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST MOVES EASTWARD. SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON MONDAY...WITH BRISK WINDS DEVELOPING AGAIN
ACROSS THE SD PLAINS...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER TUESDAY WILL CARVE OUT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TUESDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT. MODELS ARE AGAIN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH DISPOSITION OF
UPPER TROUGH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AND OUT
OF PHASE WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/UPPER LOWS. UNCERTAINTY AGAIN
AS A RESULT...SO MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO ONGOING FORECAST/GUIDANCE
BLENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

THE BACK EDGE OF AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR
CIGS TO THE NORTH WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10










000
FXUS63 KUNR 132324
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
523 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
KS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN MT. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE EAST OF THE TROF
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. REGIONAL RADARS NOW SHOW MAIN BANDS OF
PCPN ARE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...WITH SOME LINGERING
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD. SKIES HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BULK OF
CLOUDS AT THIS TIME OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE BLACK HILLS...WHERE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN
PLACE. COLD AIR HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION...WITH CURRENT TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING AS SYSTEM EXITS THE
REGION AND DRIER AIR BUILDS IN. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. A CHILLY NIGHT IS ON TAP...
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S...EVEN COLDER OVER
THE BLACK HILLS AND SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH
TUESDAY AS WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST MOVES EASTWARD. SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON MONDAY...WITH BRISK WINDS DEVELOPING AGAIN
ACROSS THE SD PLAINS...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER TUESDAY WILL CARVE OUT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TUESDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT. MODELS ARE AGAIN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH DISPOSITION OF
UPPER TROUGH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AND OUT
OF PHASE WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/UPPER LOWS. UNCERTAINTY AGAIN
AS A RESULT...SO MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO ONGOING FORECAST/GUIDANCE
BLENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

THE BACK EDGE OF AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR
CIGS TO THE NORTH WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10











000
FXUS63 KUNR 132106
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
306 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
KS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN MT. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE EAST OF THE TROF
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. REGIONAL RADARS NOW SHOW MAIN BANDS OF
PCPN ARE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...WITH SOME LINGERING
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD. SKIES HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BULK OF
CLOUDS AT THIS TIME OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE BLACK HILLS...WHERE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN
PLACE. COLD AIR HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION...WITH CURRENT TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING AS SYSTEM EXITS THE
REGION AND DRIER AIR BUILDS IN. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. A CHILLY NIGHT IS ON TAP...
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S...EVEN COLDER OVER
THE BLACK HILLS AND SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH
TUESDAY AS WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST MOVES EASTWARD. SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON MONDAY...WITH BRISK WINDS DEVELOPING AGAIN
ACROSS THE SD PLAINS...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER TUESDAY WILL CARVE OUT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TUESDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT. MODELS ARE AGAIN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH DISPOSITION OF
UPPER TROUGH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AND OUT
OF PHASE WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/UPPER LOWS. UNCERTAINTY AGAIN
AS A RESULT...SO MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO ONGOING FORECAST/GUIDANCE
BLENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

THE BACK EDGE OF AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR
CIGS TO THE NORTH WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON







000
FXUS63 KUNR 132106
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
306 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
KS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN MT. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE EAST OF THE TROF
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. REGIONAL RADARS NOW SHOW MAIN BANDS OF
PCPN ARE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...WITH SOME LINGERING
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD. SKIES HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BULK OF
CLOUDS AT THIS TIME OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE BLACK HILLS...WHERE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN
PLACE. COLD AIR HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION...WITH CURRENT TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING AS SYSTEM EXITS THE
REGION AND DRIER AIR BUILDS IN. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. A CHILLY NIGHT IS ON TAP...
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S...EVEN COLDER OVER
THE BLACK HILLS AND SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH
TUESDAY AS WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST MOVES EASTWARD. SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON MONDAY...WITH BRISK WINDS DEVELOPING AGAIN
ACROSS THE SD PLAINS...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER TUESDAY WILL CARVE OUT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TUESDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT. MODELS ARE AGAIN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH DISPOSITION OF
UPPER TROUGH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AND OUT
OF PHASE WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/UPPER LOWS. UNCERTAINTY AGAIN
AS A RESULT...SO MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO ONGOING FORECAST/GUIDANCE
BLENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

THE BACK EDGE OF AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR
CIGS TO THE NORTH WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON








000
FXUS63 KUNR 131711
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1111 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KS...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF
DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE EAST OF THE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
REGIONAL RADARS NOW SHOW MOST OF THE SNOWFALL IS TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CWA...WITH LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR
SOUTHERN SD. THE REST OF THE WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...WITH LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER THE
ADVISORY AREA...WITH SOME FAVORED AREAS OF THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS
LIKELY RECEIVING A BIT MORE. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS...WHERE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE. COLD AIR
HAS SETTLED IN OVER THE REGION...WITH CURRENT TEMPS IN THE 20S
AND LOWER 30S.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY. IN ADDITION...HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PCPN
CHANCES...CLOUD COVER...AND WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM WEST
CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY
DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WSW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CROSSING WRN KS...WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING
THROUGH SCNTRL SD INTO NEB. OBS/RADAR SHOWS SNOW ACROSS NE WY INTO
MUCH OF WRN SD...EXCEPT RAIN OVER SW TO SCNTRL SD.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THIS MORNING AS COLDER AIR
ADVECTS IN. LIGHT SNOW OVER NW SD ENDED QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING.
WEBCAMS SHOWING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NE WY AND THROUGH THE BLACK
HILLS AREA AT THIS TIME...THOUGH LIKELY NOT MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO
AT THIS POINT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WILL END
NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BULK
OF PRECIP ENDING BY 12-15Z AS BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFT SOUTH OF THE CWA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT HEADLINES FOR NOW...AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK
AT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO 12Z. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 50S. BREEZY N/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY.
PLAINS EAST OF THE BLKHLS COULD REACH MINIMAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
HEADLINES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY WITH WARMER
AIR ADVECTING BACK IN FROM THE SW. A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE CROSS THE REGION...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE
CHILLY...DROPPING INTO THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
CARVE OUT A LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA
INTO THE DAKOTAS LATE TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK. COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES IN THE LARGE SCALE TROF WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF BEST LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

IFR VSBYS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY/FAR SOUTHERN SD ASSOCIATED
WITH -SN WILL EXIT THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS OVER THE CWA
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...HELGESON






000
FXUS63 KUNR 131711
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1111 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KS...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF
DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE EAST OF THE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
REGIONAL RADARS NOW SHOW MOST OF THE SNOWFALL IS TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CWA...WITH LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR
SOUTHERN SD. THE REST OF THE WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...WITH LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER THE
ADVISORY AREA...WITH SOME FAVORED AREAS OF THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS
LIKELY RECEIVING A BIT MORE. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS...WHERE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE. COLD AIR
HAS SETTLED IN OVER THE REGION...WITH CURRENT TEMPS IN THE 20S
AND LOWER 30S.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY. IN ADDITION...HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PCPN
CHANCES...CLOUD COVER...AND WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM WEST
CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY
DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WSW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CROSSING WRN KS...WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING
THROUGH SCNTRL SD INTO NEB. OBS/RADAR SHOWS SNOW ACROSS NE WY INTO
MUCH OF WRN SD...EXCEPT RAIN OVER SW TO SCNTRL SD.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THIS MORNING AS COLDER AIR
ADVECTS IN. LIGHT SNOW OVER NW SD ENDED QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING.
WEBCAMS SHOWING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NE WY AND THROUGH THE BLACK
HILLS AREA AT THIS TIME...THOUGH LIKELY NOT MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO
AT THIS POINT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WILL END
NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BULK
OF PRECIP ENDING BY 12-15Z AS BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFT SOUTH OF THE CWA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT HEADLINES FOR NOW...AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK
AT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO 12Z. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 50S. BREEZY N/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY.
PLAINS EAST OF THE BLKHLS COULD REACH MINIMAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
HEADLINES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY WITH WARMER
AIR ADVECTING BACK IN FROM THE SW. A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE CROSS THE REGION...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE
CHILLY...DROPPING INTO THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
CARVE OUT A LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA
INTO THE DAKOTAS LATE TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK. COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES IN THE LARGE SCALE TROF WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF BEST LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

IFR VSBYS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY/FAR SOUTHERN SD ASSOCIATED
WITH -SN WILL EXIT THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS OVER THE CWA
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...HELGESON





000
FXUS63 KUNR 131641
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1041 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KS...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF
DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE EAST OF THE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
REGIONAL RADARS NOW SHOW MOST OF THE SNOWFALL IS TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CWA...WITH LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR
SOUTHERN SD. THE REST OF THE WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...WITH LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER THE
ADVISORY AREA...WITH SOME FAVORED AREAS OF THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS
LIKELY RECEIVING A BIT MORE. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS...WHERE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE. COLD AIR
HAS SETTLED IN OVER THE REGION...WITH CURRENT TEMPS IN THE 20S
AND LOWER 30S.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY. IN ADDITION...HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PCPN
CHANCES...CLOUD COVER...AND WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM WEST
CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY
DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WSW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CROSSING WRN KS...WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING
THROUGH SCNTRL SD INTO NEB. OBS/RADAR SHOWS SNOW ACROSS NE WY INTO
MUCH OF WRN SD...EXCEPT RAIN OVER SW TO SCNTRL SD.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THIS MORNING AS COLDER AIR
ADVECTS IN. LIGHT SNOW OVER NW SD ENDED QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING.
WEBCAMS SHOWING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NE WY AND THROUGH THE BLACK
HILLS AREA AT THIS TIME...THOUGH LIKELY NOT MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO
AT THIS POINT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WILL END
NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BULK
OF PRECIP ENDING BY 12-15Z AS BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFT SOUTH OF THE CWA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT HEADLINES FOR NOW...AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK
AT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO 12Z. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 50S. BREEZY N/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY.
PLAINS EAST OF THE BLKHLS COULD REACH MINIMAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
HEADLINES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY WITH WARMER
AIR ADVECTING BACK IN FROM THE SW. A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE CROSS THE REGION...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE
CHILLY...DROPPING INTO THE 20S.


&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
CARVE OUT A LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA
INTO THE DAKOTAS LATE TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK. COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES IN THE LARGE SCALE TROF WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF BEST LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

IFR VSBY WITH SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH SNOW GRADUALLY ENDING THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE SNOW ENDS...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSISTS INTO THIS
EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...WITH IMPROVEMENT THIS
EVENING.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7







000
FXUS63 KUNR 131641
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1041 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KS...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF
DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE EAST OF THE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
REGIONAL RADARS NOW SHOW MOST OF THE SNOWFALL IS TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CWA...WITH LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR
SOUTHERN SD. THE REST OF THE WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...WITH LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER THE
ADVISORY AREA...WITH SOME FAVORED AREAS OF THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS
LIKELY RECEIVING A BIT MORE. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS...WHERE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE. COLD AIR
HAS SETTLED IN OVER THE REGION...WITH CURRENT TEMPS IN THE 20S
AND LOWER 30S.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY. IN ADDITION...HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PCPN
CHANCES...CLOUD COVER...AND WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM WEST
CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY
DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WSW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CROSSING WRN KS...WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING
THROUGH SCNTRL SD INTO NEB. OBS/RADAR SHOWS SNOW ACROSS NE WY INTO
MUCH OF WRN SD...EXCEPT RAIN OVER SW TO SCNTRL SD.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THIS MORNING AS COLDER AIR
ADVECTS IN. LIGHT SNOW OVER NW SD ENDED QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING.
WEBCAMS SHOWING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NE WY AND THROUGH THE BLACK
HILLS AREA AT THIS TIME...THOUGH LIKELY NOT MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO
AT THIS POINT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WILL END
NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BULK
OF PRECIP ENDING BY 12-15Z AS BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFT SOUTH OF THE CWA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT HEADLINES FOR NOW...AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK
AT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO 12Z. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 50S. BREEZY N/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY.
PLAINS EAST OF THE BLKHLS COULD REACH MINIMAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
HEADLINES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY WITH WARMER
AIR ADVECTING BACK IN FROM THE SW. A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE CROSS THE REGION...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE
CHILLY...DROPPING INTO THE 20S.


&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
CARVE OUT A LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA
INTO THE DAKOTAS LATE TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK. COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES IN THE LARGE SCALE TROF WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF BEST LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

IFR VSBY WITH SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH SNOW GRADUALLY ENDING THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE SNOW ENDS...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSISTS INTO THIS
EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...WITH IMPROVEMENT THIS
EVENING.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7








000
FXUS63 KUNR 130903
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
303 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WSW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CROSSING WRN KS...WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING
THROUGH SCNTRL SD INTO NEB. OBS/RADAR SHOWS SNOW ACROSS NE WY INTO
MUCH OF WRN SD...EXCEPT RAIN OVER SW TO SCNTRL SD.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THIS MORNING AS COLDER AIR
ADVECTS IN. LIGHT SNOW OVER NW SD ENDED QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING.
WEBCAMS SHOWING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NE WY AND THROUGH THE BLACK
HILLS AREA AT THIS TIME...THOUGH LIKELY NOT MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO
AT THIS POINT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WILL END
NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BULK
OF PRECIP ENDING BY 12-15Z AS BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFT SOUTH OF THE CWA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT HEADLINES FOR NOW...AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK
AT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO 12Z. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 50S. BREEZY N/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY.
PLAINS EAST OF THE BLKHLS COULD REACH MINIMAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
HEADLINES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY WITH WARMER
AIR ADVECTING BACK IN FROM THE SW. A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE CROSS THE REGION...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE
CHILLY...DROPPING INTO THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
CARVE OUT A LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA
INTO THE DAKOTAS LATE TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK. COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES IN THE LARGE SCALE TROF WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF BEST LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

IFR VSBY WITH SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH SNOW GRADUALLY ENDING THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE SNOW ENDS...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSISTS INTO THIS
EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...WITH IMPROVEMENT THIS
EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR SDZ024-028-041.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ054-055-057-
     058.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7









000
FXUS63 KUNR 130903
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
303 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WSW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CROSSING WRN KS...WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING
THROUGH SCNTRL SD INTO NEB. OBS/RADAR SHOWS SNOW ACROSS NE WY INTO
MUCH OF WRN SD...EXCEPT RAIN OVER SW TO SCNTRL SD.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THIS MORNING AS COLDER AIR
ADVECTS IN. LIGHT SNOW OVER NW SD ENDED QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING.
WEBCAMS SHOWING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NE WY AND THROUGH THE BLACK
HILLS AREA AT THIS TIME...THOUGH LIKELY NOT MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO
AT THIS POINT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WILL END
NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BULK
OF PRECIP ENDING BY 12-15Z AS BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFT SOUTH OF THE CWA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT HEADLINES FOR NOW...AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK
AT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO 12Z. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 50S. BREEZY N/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY.
PLAINS EAST OF THE BLKHLS COULD REACH MINIMAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
HEADLINES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY WITH WARMER
AIR ADVECTING BACK IN FROM THE SW. A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE CROSS THE REGION...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE
CHILLY...DROPPING INTO THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
CARVE OUT A LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA
INTO THE DAKOTAS LATE TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK. COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES IN THE LARGE SCALE TROF WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF BEST LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

IFR VSBY WITH SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH SNOW GRADUALLY ENDING THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE SNOW ENDS...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSISTS INTO THIS
EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...WITH IMPROVEMENT THIS
EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR SDZ024-028-041.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ054-055-057-
     058.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7








000
FXUS63 KUNR 130440
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1040 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN
KS...WITH CANADIAN COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA
NOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH TROF SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY NOW FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO THE
BLACK HILLS AREA AND NORTHWESTERN SD. TEMPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE 50S OVER NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND FAR NORTHWEST
SD...TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. BRISK NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS. KUDX RADAR IS
SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS AND PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SD...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST
ACROSS WY AND SOUTHERN MT.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE TROF TO
THE WEST MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AT LEAST SOME PCPN TO
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WY
INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD. MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON GENERAL TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...WITH NAM
REMAINING AN OUTLIER. THE TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO DIG THE TROF A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT...WHICH WILL FOCUS
THE HEAVIER PCPN FURTHER OUT OF OUR CWA...WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
WY AND SOUTHWESTERN SD SEEING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT PCPN AMOUNTS. THE BIGGEST ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE
TIMING OF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...WHICH WILL AFFECT SNOWFALL TOTALS
ACROSS THE AREA. AS WITH MOST SYSTEMS THIS TIME OF YEAR...ELEVATION
WILL PLAY THE BIGGEST ROLE IN TIMING AND EVENTUAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS.

PCPN WILL START OFF AS RAIN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT. THE TIMING OF THIS WILL BE
TRICKY...BUT THE CHANGEOVER WILL BE QUICKEST OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SPECIFICALLY THE BLACK HILLS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHEASTERN WY. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE DURING THE EVENING...WITH
SNOW LEVELS LIKELY DROPPING TO NEAR 4000 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE
CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH TIMING LOOKS TO BE A BIT SLOWER THAN WAS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. WITH MOST
OF THE PCPN FALLING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY AND SOUTHERN SD LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK
HILLS...AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHWEST SD. SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCED SNOWFALL
IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS OVERNIGHT AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHEAST WY...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BLACK
HILLS...AS WELL AS THE FALL RIVER COUNTY PLAINS. GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCH
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...BUT COULD OBVIOUSLY BE MORE OR LESS DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING OF CHANGEOVER AND WHERE ANY HEAVIER BANDS COULD
DEVELOP.

PCPN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAPER OFF PRETTY QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING...WITH ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW DONE WITH BY MIDDAY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S...WARMEST OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS IN
THE MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS IF WINDS ARE PROJECTED TO BE
ANY STRONGER.

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. CHILLY TEMPS CAN BE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S...SOME TEENS
OVER THE BLACK HILLS AS WELL AS SHELTERED AND SNOW COVERED
AREAS.


&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH TUESDAY WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF IT. THIS FEATURE WILL CARVE OUT A
LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO CONVERGE ON SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS...BUT SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES CONTINUE.
THEY ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WILL
KEEP PREVIOUS FORECAST LARGELY INTACT WITH CHANCES FOR NOTICEABLE
SNOW MAINLY AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
AND IFR/LIFR VSBYS WITH PRECIPITATION WILL THEN OCCUR THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ024-028.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ041.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ054-055-057.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ058.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10








000
FXUS63 KUNR 130440
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1040 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN
KS...WITH CANADIAN COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA
NOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH TROF SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY NOW FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO THE
BLACK HILLS AREA AND NORTHWESTERN SD. TEMPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE 50S OVER NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND FAR NORTHWEST
SD...TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. BRISK NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS. KUDX RADAR IS
SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS AND PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SD...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST
ACROSS WY AND SOUTHERN MT.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE TROF TO
THE WEST MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AT LEAST SOME PCPN TO
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WY
INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD. MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON GENERAL TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...WITH NAM
REMAINING AN OUTLIER. THE TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO DIG THE TROF A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT...WHICH WILL FOCUS
THE HEAVIER PCPN FURTHER OUT OF OUR CWA...WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
WY AND SOUTHWESTERN SD SEEING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT PCPN AMOUNTS. THE BIGGEST ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE
TIMING OF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...WHICH WILL AFFECT SNOWFALL TOTALS
ACROSS THE AREA. AS WITH MOST SYSTEMS THIS TIME OF YEAR...ELEVATION
WILL PLAY THE BIGGEST ROLE IN TIMING AND EVENTUAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS.

PCPN WILL START OFF AS RAIN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT. THE TIMING OF THIS WILL BE
TRICKY...BUT THE CHANGEOVER WILL BE QUICKEST OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SPECIFICALLY THE BLACK HILLS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHEASTERN WY. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE DURING THE EVENING...WITH
SNOW LEVELS LIKELY DROPPING TO NEAR 4000 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE
CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH TIMING LOOKS TO BE A BIT SLOWER THAN WAS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. WITH MOST
OF THE PCPN FALLING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY AND SOUTHERN SD LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK
HILLS...AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHWEST SD. SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCED SNOWFALL
IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS OVERNIGHT AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHEAST WY...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BLACK
HILLS...AS WELL AS THE FALL RIVER COUNTY PLAINS. GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCH
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...BUT COULD OBVIOUSLY BE MORE OR LESS DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING OF CHANGEOVER AND WHERE ANY HEAVIER BANDS COULD
DEVELOP.

PCPN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAPER OFF PRETTY QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING...WITH ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW DONE WITH BY MIDDAY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S...WARMEST OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS IN
THE MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS IF WINDS ARE PROJECTED TO BE
ANY STRONGER.

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. CHILLY TEMPS CAN BE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S...SOME TEENS
OVER THE BLACK HILLS AS WELL AS SHELTERED AND SNOW COVERED
AREAS.


&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH TUESDAY WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF IT. THIS FEATURE WILL CARVE OUT A
LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO CONVERGE ON SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS...BUT SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES CONTINUE.
THEY ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WILL
KEEP PREVIOUS FORECAST LARGELY INTACT WITH CHANCES FOR NOTICEABLE
SNOW MAINLY AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
AND IFR/LIFR VSBYS WITH PRECIPITATION WILL THEN OCCUR THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ024-028.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ041.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ054-055-057.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ058.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10







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