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000
FXUS63 KUNR 010505
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1105 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTN WITH
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
UPPER TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE PAC NW. AT THE SFC...PRES FALLS
EXTEND THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROF.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROF WILL WORK INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH ASSOCD
CDFNT PUSHING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AFT MIDNIGHT. 5-8MB/3HR PRES
RISES AND 850MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KTS WILL LEAD TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. WIND
ADVISORY POSTED FOR NWRN SD AND PARTS OF SCNTRL SD. A FEW -SHRA
POSSIBLE IN NERN WY BUT VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

WEDNESDAY...CDFNT WILL EXIT SCNTRL SD EARLY IN THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACRS THE CWFA. TEMPS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACRS NERN WY AND NWRN SD. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BY LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROF
WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH WIND
ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED AGAIN FOR THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING SLIDES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. FLOW THEN
BECOMES NEAR ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES BRINGING CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN ACROSS THE CWA LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...ESP OVER SCENTRAL SD. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD LATE TONIGHT
AND ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN SD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 KT AND GUSTS TO 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015
DRY AND VERY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
ARE IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS.
HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. RED
FLAG OR NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS RIGHT NOW AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RESULT WILL BE POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20-35MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH OR MORE ACROSS THE PLAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPS TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING GOING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALL FIRE ZONES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MDT /6 AM CDT/ TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ014-032-043-046.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-025-026-030-031-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 010505
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1105 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTN WITH
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
UPPER TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE PAC NW. AT THE SFC...PRES FALLS
EXTEND THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROF.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROF WILL WORK INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH ASSOCD
CDFNT PUSHING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AFT MIDNIGHT. 5-8MB/3HR PRES
RISES AND 850MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KTS WILL LEAD TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. WIND
ADVISORY POSTED FOR NWRN SD AND PARTS OF SCNTRL SD. A FEW -SHRA
POSSIBLE IN NERN WY BUT VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

WEDNESDAY...CDFNT WILL EXIT SCNTRL SD EARLY IN THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACRS THE CWFA. TEMPS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACRS NERN WY AND NWRN SD. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BY LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROF
WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH WIND
ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED AGAIN FOR THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING SLIDES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. FLOW THEN
BECOMES NEAR ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES BRINGING CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN ACROSS THE CWA LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...ESP OVER SCENTRAL SD. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD LATE TONIGHT
AND ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN SD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 KT AND GUSTS TO 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015
DRY AND VERY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
ARE IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS.
HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. RED
FLAG OR NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS RIGHT NOW AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RESULT WILL BE POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20-35MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH OR MORE ACROSS THE PLAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPS TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING GOING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALL FIRE ZONES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MDT /6 AM CDT/ TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ014-032-043-046.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-025-026-030-031-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...26








000
FXUS63 KUNR 010505
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1105 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTN WITH
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
UPPER TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE PAC NW. AT THE SFC...PRES FALLS
EXTEND THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROF.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROF WILL WORK INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH ASSOCD
CDFNT PUSHING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AFT MIDNIGHT. 5-8MB/3HR PRES
RISES AND 850MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KTS WILL LEAD TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. WIND
ADVISORY POSTED FOR NWRN SD AND PARTS OF SCNTRL SD. A FEW -SHRA
POSSIBLE IN NERN WY BUT VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

WEDNESDAY...CDFNT WILL EXIT SCNTRL SD EARLY IN THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACRS THE CWFA. TEMPS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACRS NERN WY AND NWRN SD. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BY LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROF
WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH WIND
ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED AGAIN FOR THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING SLIDES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. FLOW THEN
BECOMES NEAR ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES BRINGING CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN ACROSS THE CWA LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...ESP OVER SCENTRAL SD. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD LATE TONIGHT
AND ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN SD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 KT AND GUSTS TO 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015
DRY AND VERY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
ARE IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS.
HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. RED
FLAG OR NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS RIGHT NOW AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RESULT WILL BE POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20-35MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH OR MORE ACROSS THE PLAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPS TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING GOING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALL FIRE ZONES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MDT /6 AM CDT/ TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ014-032-043-046.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-025-026-030-031-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 010505
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1105 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTN WITH
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
UPPER TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE PAC NW. AT THE SFC...PRES FALLS
EXTEND THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROF.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROF WILL WORK INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH ASSOCD
CDFNT PUSHING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AFT MIDNIGHT. 5-8MB/3HR PRES
RISES AND 850MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KTS WILL LEAD TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. WIND
ADVISORY POSTED FOR NWRN SD AND PARTS OF SCNTRL SD. A FEW -SHRA
POSSIBLE IN NERN WY BUT VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

WEDNESDAY...CDFNT WILL EXIT SCNTRL SD EARLY IN THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACRS THE CWFA. TEMPS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACRS NERN WY AND NWRN SD. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BY LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROF
WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH WIND
ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED AGAIN FOR THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING SLIDES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. FLOW THEN
BECOMES NEAR ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES BRINGING CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN ACROSS THE CWA LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...ESP OVER SCENTRAL SD. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD LATE TONIGHT
AND ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN SD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 KT AND GUSTS TO 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015
DRY AND VERY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
ARE IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS.
HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. RED
FLAG OR NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS RIGHT NOW AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RESULT WILL BE POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20-35MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH OR MORE ACROSS THE PLAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPS TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING GOING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALL FIRE ZONES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MDT /6 AM CDT/ TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ014-032-043-046.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-025-026-030-031-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...26








000
FXUS63 KUNR 312332
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
532 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTN WITH
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
UPPER TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE PAC NW. AT THE SFC...PRES FALLS
EXTEND THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROF.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROF WILL WORK INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH ASSOCD
CDFNT PUSHING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AFT MIDNIGHT. 5-8MB/3HR PRES
RISES AND 850MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KTS WILL LEAD TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. WIND
ADVISORY POSTED FOR NWRN SD AND PARTS OF SCNTRL SD. A FEW -SHRA
POSSIBLE IN NERN WY BUT VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

WEDNESDAY...CDFNT WILL EXIT SCNTRL SD EARLY IN THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACRS THE CWFA. TEMPS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACRS NERN WY AND NWRN SD. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BY LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROF
WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH WIND
ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED AGAIN FOR THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING SLIDES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. FLOW THEN
BECOMES NEAR ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES BRINGING CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN ACROSS THE CWA LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REST
OF WESTERN SD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT AND GUSTS
TO 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015
DRY AND VERY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
ARE IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS.
HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. RED
FLAG OR NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS RIGHT NOW AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RESULT WILL BE POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20-35MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH OR MORE ACROSS THE PLAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPS TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING GOING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALL FIRE ZONES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MDT /6 AM CDT/ TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ014-032-043-046.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-025-026-030-031-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 312332
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
532 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTN WITH
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
UPPER TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE PAC NW. AT THE SFC...PRES FALLS
EXTEND THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROF.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROF WILL WORK INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH ASSOCD
CDFNT PUSHING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AFT MIDNIGHT. 5-8MB/3HR PRES
RISES AND 850MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KTS WILL LEAD TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. WIND
ADVISORY POSTED FOR NWRN SD AND PARTS OF SCNTRL SD. A FEW -SHRA
POSSIBLE IN NERN WY BUT VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

WEDNESDAY...CDFNT WILL EXIT SCNTRL SD EARLY IN THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACRS THE CWFA. TEMPS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACRS NERN WY AND NWRN SD. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BY LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROF
WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH WIND
ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED AGAIN FOR THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING SLIDES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. FLOW THEN
BECOMES NEAR ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES BRINGING CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN ACROSS THE CWA LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REST
OF WESTERN SD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT AND GUSTS
TO 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015
DRY AND VERY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
ARE IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS.
HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. RED
FLAG OR NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS RIGHT NOW AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RESULT WILL BE POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20-35MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH OR MORE ACROSS THE PLAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPS TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING GOING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALL FIRE ZONES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MDT /6 AM CDT/ TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ014-032-043-046.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-025-026-030-031-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...26








000
FXUS63 KUNR 312332
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
532 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTN WITH
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
UPPER TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE PAC NW. AT THE SFC...PRES FALLS
EXTEND THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROF.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROF WILL WORK INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH ASSOCD
CDFNT PUSHING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AFT MIDNIGHT. 5-8MB/3HR PRES
RISES AND 850MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KTS WILL LEAD TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. WIND
ADVISORY POSTED FOR NWRN SD AND PARTS OF SCNTRL SD. A FEW -SHRA
POSSIBLE IN NERN WY BUT VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

WEDNESDAY...CDFNT WILL EXIT SCNTRL SD EARLY IN THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACRS THE CWFA. TEMPS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACRS NERN WY AND NWRN SD. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BY LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROF
WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH WIND
ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED AGAIN FOR THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING SLIDES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. FLOW THEN
BECOMES NEAR ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES BRINGING CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN ACROSS THE CWA LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REST
OF WESTERN SD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT AND GUSTS
TO 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015
DRY AND VERY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
ARE IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS.
HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. RED
FLAG OR NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS RIGHT NOW AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RESULT WILL BE POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20-35MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH OR MORE ACROSS THE PLAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPS TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING GOING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALL FIRE ZONES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MDT /6 AM CDT/ TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ014-032-043-046.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-025-026-030-031-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...26








000
FXUS63 KUNR 312332
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
532 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTN WITH
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
UPPER TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE PAC NW. AT THE SFC...PRES FALLS
EXTEND THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROF.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROF WILL WORK INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH ASSOCD
CDFNT PUSHING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AFT MIDNIGHT. 5-8MB/3HR PRES
RISES AND 850MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KTS WILL LEAD TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. WIND
ADVISORY POSTED FOR NWRN SD AND PARTS OF SCNTRL SD. A FEW -SHRA
POSSIBLE IN NERN WY BUT VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

WEDNESDAY...CDFNT WILL EXIT SCNTRL SD EARLY IN THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACRS THE CWFA. TEMPS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACRS NERN WY AND NWRN SD. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BY LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROF
WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH WIND
ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED AGAIN FOR THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING SLIDES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. FLOW THEN
BECOMES NEAR ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES BRINGING CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN ACROSS THE CWA LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REST
OF WESTERN SD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT AND GUSTS
TO 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015
DRY AND VERY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
ARE IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS.
HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. RED
FLAG OR NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS RIGHT NOW AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RESULT WILL BE POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20-35MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH OR MORE ACROSS THE PLAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPS TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING GOING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALL FIRE ZONES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MDT /6 AM CDT/ TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ014-032-043-046.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-025-026-030-031-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 312008
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
208 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTN WITH
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
UPPER TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE PAC NW. AT THE SFC...PRES FALLS
EXTEND THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROF.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROF WILL WORK INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH ASSOCD
CDFNT PUSHING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AFT MIDNIGHT. 5-8MB/3HR PRES
RISES AND 850MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KTS WILL LEAD TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. WIND
ADVISORY POSTED FOR NWRN SD AND PARTS OF SCNTRL SD. A FEW -SHRA
POSSIBLE IN NERN WY BUT VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

WEDNESDAY...CDFNT WILL EXIT SCNTRL SD EARLY IN THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACRS THE CWFA. TEMPS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACRS NERN WY AND NWRN SD. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BY LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROF
WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH WIND
ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED AGAIN FOR THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING SLIDES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. FLOW THEN
BECOMES NEAR ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES BRINGING CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN ACROSS THE CWA LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REST
OF WESTERN SD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT AND GUSTS
TO 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015
DRY AND VERY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
ARE IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS.
HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. RED
FLAG OR NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS RIGHT NOW AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RESULT WILL BE POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20-35MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH OR MORE ACROSS THE PLAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPS TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING GOING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALL FIRE ZONES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MDT /6 AM CDT/ TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ014-032-043-046.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-025-026-030-031-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26
FIRE WEATHER...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 312008
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
208 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTN WITH
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
UPPER TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE PAC NW. AT THE SFC...PRES FALLS
EXTEND THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROF.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROF WILL WORK INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH ASSOCD
CDFNT PUSHING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AFT MIDNIGHT. 5-8MB/3HR PRES
RISES AND 850MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KTS WILL LEAD TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. WIND
ADVISORY POSTED FOR NWRN SD AND PARTS OF SCNTRL SD. A FEW -SHRA
POSSIBLE IN NERN WY BUT VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

WEDNESDAY...CDFNT WILL EXIT SCNTRL SD EARLY IN THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACRS THE CWFA. TEMPS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACRS NERN WY AND NWRN SD. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BY LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROF
WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH WIND
ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED AGAIN FOR THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING SLIDES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. FLOW THEN
BECOMES NEAR ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES BRINGING CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN ACROSS THE CWA LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REST
OF WESTERN SD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT AND GUSTS
TO 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015
DRY AND VERY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
ARE IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS.
HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. RED
FLAG OR NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS RIGHT NOW AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RESULT WILL BE POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20-35MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH OR MORE ACROSS THE PLAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPS TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING GOING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALL FIRE ZONES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MDT /6 AM CDT/ TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ014-032-043-046.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-025-026-030-031-072>074.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26
FIRE WEATHER...26








000
FXUS63 KUNR 311720
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1120 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...WITH TROF ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA/WESTERN WYOMING. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR TODAY...UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
SURFACE TROF DEEPENING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/EASTERN WYOMING.
WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MIXING...900-850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. THIS WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR
MANY LOCATIONS.

RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NORTHEAST
WYOMING/NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT...AND THROUGH REST OF
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. 6-9MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES...ALONG
WITH 40-50KT 850MB WINDS WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND
THE FRONT. LOCATION OF UPPER LOW AND LACK OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM BEING A HIGH WIND EVENT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REST
OF WESTERN SD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT AND GUSTS
TO 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WARM AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE AS LOW AS
10 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. BIGGEST ISSUE WAS
WHAT TO DO WITH FIRE WEATHER WATCH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
WINDS LOOK TO STAY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DRY
FUELS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR 10 PERCENT...WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE
TO RED FLAG WARNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RESULT WILL BE POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20-35MPH...WITH GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE PLAINS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS TO
AROUND 15 PERCENT. MORE CONFIDENT IN REACHING RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY VERSUS TODAY. FOR
SIMPLICITY...WILL RUN RED FLAG WARNING FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ260>266.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...26
FIRE WEATHER...7








000
FXUS63 KUNR 311720
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1120 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...WITH TROF ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA/WESTERN WYOMING. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR TODAY...UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
SURFACE TROF DEEPENING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/EASTERN WYOMING.
WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MIXING...900-850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. THIS WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR
MANY LOCATIONS.

RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NORTHEAST
WYOMING/NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT...AND THROUGH REST OF
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. 6-9MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES...ALONG
WITH 40-50KT 850MB WINDS WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND
THE FRONT. LOCATION OF UPPER LOW AND LACK OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM BEING A HIGH WIND EVENT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REST
OF WESTERN SD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT AND GUSTS
TO 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WARM AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE AS LOW AS
10 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. BIGGEST ISSUE WAS
WHAT TO DO WITH FIRE WEATHER WATCH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
WINDS LOOK TO STAY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DRY
FUELS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR 10 PERCENT...WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE
TO RED FLAG WARNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RESULT WILL BE POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20-35MPH...WITH GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE PLAINS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS TO
AROUND 15 PERCENT. MORE CONFIDENT IN REACHING RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY VERSUS TODAY. FOR
SIMPLICITY...WILL RUN RED FLAG WARNING FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ260>266.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...26
FIRE WEATHER...7








000
FXUS63 KUNR 311720
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1120 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...WITH TROF ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA/WESTERN WYOMING. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR TODAY...UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
SURFACE TROF DEEPENING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/EASTERN WYOMING.
WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MIXING...900-850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. THIS WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR
MANY LOCATIONS.

RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NORTHEAST
WYOMING/NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT...AND THROUGH REST OF
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. 6-9MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES...ALONG
WITH 40-50KT 850MB WINDS WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND
THE FRONT. LOCATION OF UPPER LOW AND LACK OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM BEING A HIGH WIND EVENT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST SD LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REST
OF WESTERN SD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT AND GUSTS
TO 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WARM AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE AS LOW AS
10 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. BIGGEST ISSUE WAS
WHAT TO DO WITH FIRE WEATHER WATCH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
WINDS LOOK TO STAY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DRY
FUELS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR 10 PERCENT...WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE
TO RED FLAG WARNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RESULT WILL BE POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20-35MPH...WITH GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE PLAINS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS TO
AROUND 15 PERCENT. MORE CONFIDENT IN REACHING RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY VERSUS TODAY. FOR
SIMPLICITY...WILL RUN RED FLAG WARNING FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ260>266.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...26
FIRE WEATHER...7







000
FXUS63 KUNR 311122
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
522 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...WITH TROF ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA/WESTERN WYOMING. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR TODAY...UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
SURFACE TROF DEEPENING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/EASTERN WYOMING.
WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MIXING...900-850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. THIS WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR
MANY LOCATIONS.

RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NORTHEAST
WYOMING/NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT...AND THROUGH REST OF
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. 6-9MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES...ALONG
WITH 40-50KT 850MB WINDS WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND
THE FRONT. LOCATION OF UPPER LOW AND LACK OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM BEING A HIGH WIND EVENT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 521 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY SW
WINDS ON THE WY PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WARM AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE AS LOW AS
10 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. BIGGEST ISSUE WAS
WHAT TO DO WITH FIRE WEATHER WATCH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
WINDS LOOK TO STAY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DRY
FUELS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR 10 PERCENT...WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE
TO RED FLAG WARNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RESULT WILL BE POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20-35MPH...WITH GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE PLAINS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY WINDS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPS TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. MORE CONFIDENT IN REACHING RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY VERSUS TODAY. FOR
SIMPLICITY...WILL RUN RED FLAG WARNING FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     SDZ260>266.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15
FIRE WEATHER...7








000
FXUS63 KUNR 311122
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
522 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...WITH TROF ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA/WESTERN WYOMING. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR TODAY...UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
SURFACE TROF DEEPENING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/EASTERN WYOMING.
WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MIXING...900-850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. THIS WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR
MANY LOCATIONS.

RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NORTHEAST
WYOMING/NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT...AND THROUGH REST OF
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. 6-9MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES...ALONG
WITH 40-50KT 850MB WINDS WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND
THE FRONT. LOCATION OF UPPER LOW AND LACK OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM BEING A HIGH WIND EVENT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 521 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY SW
WINDS ON THE WY PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WARM AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE AS LOW AS
10 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. BIGGEST ISSUE WAS
WHAT TO DO WITH FIRE WEATHER WATCH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
WINDS LOOK TO STAY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DRY
FUELS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR 10 PERCENT...WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE
TO RED FLAG WARNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RESULT WILL BE POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20-35MPH...WITH GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE PLAINS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY WINDS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPS TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. MORE CONFIDENT IN REACHING RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY VERSUS TODAY. FOR
SIMPLICITY...WILL RUN RED FLAG WARNING FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     SDZ260>266.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15
FIRE WEATHER...7







000
FXUS63 KUNR 310852
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
252 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...WITH TROF ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA/WESTERN WYOMING. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR TODAY...UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
SURFACE TROF DEEPENING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/EASTERN WYOMING.
WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MIXING...900-850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. THIS WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR
MANY LOCATIONS.

RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NORTHEAST
WYOMING/NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT...AND THROUGH REST OF
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. 6-9MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES...ALONG
WITH 40-50KT 850MB WINDS WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND
THE FRONT. LOCATION OF UPPER LOW AND LACK OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM BEING A HIGH WIND EVENT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY SW WINDS ON THE WY PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WARM AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE AS LOW AS
10 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. BIGGEST ISSUE WAS
WHAT TO DO WITH FIRE WEATHER WATCH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
WINDS LOOK TO STAY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DRY
FUELS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR 10 PERCENT...WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE
TO RED FLAG WARNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RESULT WILL BE POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20-35MPH...WITH GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE PLAINS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY WINDS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPS TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. MORE CONFIDENT IN REACHING RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY VERSUS TODAY. FOR
SIMPLICITY...WILL RUN RED FLAG WARNING FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     SDZ260>266.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15
FIRE WEATHER...7








000
FXUS63 KUNR 310852
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
252 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...WITH TROF ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA/WESTERN WYOMING. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR TODAY...UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
SURFACE TROF DEEPENING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/EASTERN WYOMING.
WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MIXING...900-850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. THIS WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR
MANY LOCATIONS.

RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NORTHEAST
WYOMING/NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT...AND THROUGH REST OF
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. 6-9MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES...ALONG
WITH 40-50KT 850MB WINDS WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND
THE FRONT. LOCATION OF UPPER LOW AND LACK OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM BEING A HIGH WIND EVENT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY SW WINDS ON THE WY PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WARM AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE AS LOW AS
10 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. BIGGEST ISSUE WAS
WHAT TO DO WITH FIRE WEATHER WATCH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
WINDS LOOK TO STAY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DRY
FUELS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR 10 PERCENT...WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE
TO RED FLAG WARNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RESULT WILL BE POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20-35MPH...WITH GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE PLAINS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY WINDS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPS TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. MORE CONFIDENT IN REACHING RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY VERSUS TODAY. FOR
SIMPLICITY...WILL RUN RED FLAG WARNING FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     SDZ260>266.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15
FIRE WEATHER...7







000
FXUS63 KUNR 310509
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1109 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES WITH DRY
NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG TROF NOTED JUST OFFSHORE THE
PAC NW. AT THE SFC...TROF IS LOCATED OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WITH GUSTY
NW WINDS ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY WHILE UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE PAC NW. SFC
TROF/THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO ERN MT/ERN WY BY THE END OF
THE DAY WITH TEMPS WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S OVER THE CWFA...AND
80S ON THE SD PLAINS. DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO CREATE VERY DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUE TO LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS. SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SHARP COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR WRN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH IMPRESSIVE PRES RISES UP TO 8MB/3HR CREATING SOME
VERY GUSTY NW WINDS BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED...WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH IT...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
CWA. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS A GOOD POSSIBILITY ACROSS
AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CLIP WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS IT SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WILL KEEP
LOW POP CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS. ANOTHER WARMUP CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND LOWER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH GUSTY
SW WINDS ON THE WY PLAINS TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH DAKOTA FIRE ZONES
261-264-265-266 UNTIL 700 PM MDT/800 PM CDT. EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS.

WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF
10 TO 15 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHEAST WYOMING BY LATE MORNING...WITH LESS WIND
POTENTIAL EASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. HOWEVER...SOME
GUSTS OF 25 MPH OR MORE CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER WESTERN SD AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE.

WILL GO WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS WY FIRE ZONES 259-297-298-299. WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE WIND FURTHER EAST...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR THE REST OF OUR FIRE ZONES...SD ZONES 260-266. GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL BE IN THE EXTREME CATEGORY FOR WESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ259-
     297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 310509
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1109 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES WITH DRY
NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG TROF NOTED JUST OFFSHORE THE
PAC NW. AT THE SFC...TROF IS LOCATED OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WITH GUSTY
NW WINDS ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY WHILE UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE PAC NW. SFC
TROF/THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO ERN MT/ERN WY BY THE END OF
THE DAY WITH TEMPS WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S OVER THE CWFA...AND
80S ON THE SD PLAINS. DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO CREATE VERY DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUE TO LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS. SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SHARP COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR WRN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH IMPRESSIVE PRES RISES UP TO 8MB/3HR CREATING SOME
VERY GUSTY NW WINDS BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED...WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH IT...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
CWA. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS A GOOD POSSIBILITY ACROSS
AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CLIP WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS IT SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WILL KEEP
LOW POP CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS. ANOTHER WARMUP CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND LOWER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH GUSTY
SW WINDS ON THE WY PLAINS TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH DAKOTA FIRE ZONES
261-264-265-266 UNTIL 700 PM MDT/800 PM CDT. EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS.

WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF
10 TO 15 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHEAST WYOMING BY LATE MORNING...WITH LESS WIND
POTENTIAL EASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. HOWEVER...SOME
GUSTS OF 25 MPH OR MORE CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER WESTERN SD AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE.

WILL GO WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS WY FIRE ZONES 259-297-298-299. WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE WIND FURTHER EAST...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR THE REST OF OUR FIRE ZONES...SD ZONES 260-266. GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL BE IN THE EXTREME CATEGORY FOR WESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ259-
     297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...26








000
FXUS63 KUNR 310509
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1109 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES WITH DRY
NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG TROF NOTED JUST OFFSHORE THE
PAC NW. AT THE SFC...TROF IS LOCATED OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WITH GUSTY
NW WINDS ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY WHILE UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE PAC NW. SFC
TROF/THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO ERN MT/ERN WY BY THE END OF
THE DAY WITH TEMPS WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S OVER THE CWFA...AND
80S ON THE SD PLAINS. DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO CREATE VERY DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUE TO LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS. SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SHARP COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR WRN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH IMPRESSIVE PRES RISES UP TO 8MB/3HR CREATING SOME
VERY GUSTY NW WINDS BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED...WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH IT...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
CWA. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS A GOOD POSSIBILITY ACROSS
AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CLIP WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS IT SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WILL KEEP
LOW POP CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS. ANOTHER WARMUP CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND LOWER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH GUSTY
SW WINDS ON THE WY PLAINS TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH DAKOTA FIRE ZONES
261-264-265-266 UNTIL 700 PM MDT/800 PM CDT. EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS.

WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF
10 TO 15 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHEAST WYOMING BY LATE MORNING...WITH LESS WIND
POTENTIAL EASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. HOWEVER...SOME
GUSTS OF 25 MPH OR MORE CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER WESTERN SD AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE.

WILL GO WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS WY FIRE ZONES 259-297-298-299. WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE WIND FURTHER EAST...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR THE REST OF OUR FIRE ZONES...SD ZONES 260-266. GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL BE IN THE EXTREME CATEGORY FOR WESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ259-
     297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 310509
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1109 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES WITH DRY
NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG TROF NOTED JUST OFFSHORE THE
PAC NW. AT THE SFC...TROF IS LOCATED OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WITH GUSTY
NW WINDS ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY WHILE UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE PAC NW. SFC
TROF/THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO ERN MT/ERN WY BY THE END OF
THE DAY WITH TEMPS WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S OVER THE CWFA...AND
80S ON THE SD PLAINS. DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO CREATE VERY DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUE TO LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS. SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SHARP COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR WRN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH IMPRESSIVE PRES RISES UP TO 8MB/3HR CREATING SOME
VERY GUSTY NW WINDS BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED...WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH IT...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
CWA. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS A GOOD POSSIBILITY ACROSS
AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CLIP WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS IT SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WILL KEEP
LOW POP CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS. ANOTHER WARMUP CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND LOWER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH GUSTY
SW WINDS ON THE WY PLAINS TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH DAKOTA FIRE ZONES
261-264-265-266 UNTIL 700 PM MDT/800 PM CDT. EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS.

WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF
10 TO 15 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHEAST WYOMING BY LATE MORNING...WITH LESS WIND
POTENTIAL EASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. HOWEVER...SOME
GUSTS OF 25 MPH OR MORE CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER WESTERN SD AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE.

WILL GO WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS WY FIRE ZONES 259-297-298-299. WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE WIND FURTHER EAST...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR THE REST OF OUR FIRE ZONES...SD ZONES 260-266. GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL BE IN THE EXTREME CATEGORY FOR WESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ259-
     297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...26








000
FXUS63 KUNR 302321
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
521 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES WITH DRY
NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG TROF NOTED JUST OFFSHORE THE
PAC NW. AT THE SFC...TROF IS LOCATED OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WITH GUSTY
NW WINDS ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY WHILE UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE PAC NW. SFC
TROF/THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO ERN MT/ERN WY BY THE END OF
THE DAY WITH TEMPS WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S OVER THE CWFA...AND
80S ON THE SD PLAINS. DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO CREATE VERY DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUE TO LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS. SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SHARP COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR WRN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH IMPRESSIVE PRES RISES UP TO 8MB/3HR CREATING SOME
VERY GUSTY NW WINDS BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED...WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH IT...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
CWA. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS A GOOD POSSIBILITY ACROSS
AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CLIP WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS IT SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WILL KEEP
LOW POP CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS. ANOTHER WARMUP CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND LOWER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GUSTY WINDS ON THE SD PLAINS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH DAKOTA FIRE ZONES
261-264-265-266 UNTIL 700 PM MDT/800 PM CDT. EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS.

WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF
10 TO 15 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHEAST WYOMING BY LATE MORNING...WITH LESS WIND
POTENTIAL EASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. HOWEVER...SOME
GUSTS OF 25 MPH OR MORE CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER WESTERN SD AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE.

WILL GO WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS WY FIRE ZONES 259-297-298-299. WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE WIND FURTHER EAST...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR THE REST OF OUR FIRE ZONES...SD ZONES 260-266. GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL BE IN THE EXTREME CATEGORY FOR WESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ261-264>266.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ259-
     297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...26








000
FXUS63 KUNR 302321
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
521 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES WITH DRY
NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG TROF NOTED JUST OFFSHORE THE
PAC NW. AT THE SFC...TROF IS LOCATED OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WITH GUSTY
NW WINDS ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY WHILE UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE PAC NW. SFC
TROF/THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO ERN MT/ERN WY BY THE END OF
THE DAY WITH TEMPS WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S OVER THE CWFA...AND
80S ON THE SD PLAINS. DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO CREATE VERY DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUE TO LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS. SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SHARP COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR WRN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH IMPRESSIVE PRES RISES UP TO 8MB/3HR CREATING SOME
VERY GUSTY NW WINDS BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED...WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH IT...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
CWA. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS A GOOD POSSIBILITY ACROSS
AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CLIP WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS IT SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WILL KEEP
LOW POP CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS. ANOTHER WARMUP CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND LOWER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GUSTY WINDS ON THE SD PLAINS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH DAKOTA FIRE ZONES
261-264-265-266 UNTIL 700 PM MDT/800 PM CDT. EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS.

WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF
10 TO 15 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHEAST WYOMING BY LATE MORNING...WITH LESS WIND
POTENTIAL EASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. HOWEVER...SOME
GUSTS OF 25 MPH OR MORE CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER WESTERN SD AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE.

WILL GO WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS WY FIRE ZONES 259-297-298-299. WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE WIND FURTHER EAST...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR THE REST OF OUR FIRE ZONES...SD ZONES 260-266. GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL BE IN THE EXTREME CATEGORY FOR WESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ261-264>266.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ259-
     297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...26








000
FXUS63 KUNR 302321
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
521 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES WITH DRY
NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG TROF NOTED JUST OFFSHORE THE
PAC NW. AT THE SFC...TROF IS LOCATED OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WITH GUSTY
NW WINDS ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY WHILE UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE PAC NW. SFC
TROF/THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO ERN MT/ERN WY BY THE END OF
THE DAY WITH TEMPS WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S OVER THE CWFA...AND
80S ON THE SD PLAINS. DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO CREATE VERY DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUE TO LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS. SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SHARP COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR WRN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH IMPRESSIVE PRES RISES UP TO 8MB/3HR CREATING SOME
VERY GUSTY NW WINDS BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED...WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH IT...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
CWA. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS A GOOD POSSIBILITY ACROSS
AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CLIP WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS IT SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WILL KEEP
LOW POP CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS. ANOTHER WARMUP CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND LOWER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GUSTY WINDS ON THE SD PLAINS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH DAKOTA FIRE ZONES
261-264-265-266 UNTIL 700 PM MDT/800 PM CDT. EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS.

WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF
10 TO 15 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHEAST WYOMING BY LATE MORNING...WITH LESS WIND
POTENTIAL EASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. HOWEVER...SOME
GUSTS OF 25 MPH OR MORE CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER WESTERN SD AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE.

WILL GO WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS WY FIRE ZONES 259-297-298-299. WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE WIND FURTHER EAST...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR THE REST OF OUR FIRE ZONES...SD ZONES 260-266. GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL BE IN THE EXTREME CATEGORY FOR WESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ261-264>266.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ259-
     297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 302033
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
233 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES WITH DRY
NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG TROF NOTED JUST OFFSHORE THE
PAC NW. AT THE SFC...TROF IS LOCATED OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WITH GUSTY
NW WINDS ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY WHILE UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE PAC NW. SFC
TROF/THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO ERN MT/ERN WY BY THE END OF
THE DAY WITH TEMPS WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S OVER THE CWFA...AND
80S ON THE SD PLAINS. DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO CREATE VERY DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUE TO LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS. SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SHARP COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR WRN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH IMPRESSIVE PRES RISES UP TO 8MB/3HR CREATING SOME
VERY GUSTY NW WINDS BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED...WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH IT...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
CWA. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS A GOOD POSSIBILITY ACROSS
AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CLIP WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS IT SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WILL KEEP
LOW POP CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS. ANOTHER WARMUP CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND LOWER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
NORTHWEST WIND OF 15 TO 25 KT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL SD...INCLUDING
KRAP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH DAKOTA FIRE ZONES
261-264-265-266 UNTIL 700 PM MDT/800 PM CDT. EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS.

WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF
10 TO 15 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHEAST WYOMING BY LATE MORNING...WITH LESS WIND
POTENTIAL EASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. HOWEVER...SOME
GUSTS OF 25 MPH OR MORE CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER WESTERN SD AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE.

WILL GO WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS WY FIRE ZONES 259-297-298-299. WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE WIND FURTHER EAST...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR THE REST OF OUR FIRE ZONES...SD ZONES 260-266. GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL BE IN THE EXTREME CATEGORY FOR WESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ261-264>266.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ259-
     297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26
FIRE WEATHER...26








000
FXUS63 KUNR 302033
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
233 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES WITH DRY
NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG TROF NOTED JUST OFFSHORE THE
PAC NW. AT THE SFC...TROF IS LOCATED OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WITH GUSTY
NW WINDS ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY WHILE UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE PAC NW. SFC
TROF/THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO ERN MT/ERN WY BY THE END OF
THE DAY WITH TEMPS WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S OVER THE CWFA...AND
80S ON THE SD PLAINS. DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO CREATE VERY DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUE TO LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS. SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SHARP COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR WRN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH IMPRESSIVE PRES RISES UP TO 8MB/3HR CREATING SOME
VERY GUSTY NW WINDS BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED...WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH IT...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
CWA. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS A GOOD POSSIBILITY ACROSS
AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CLIP WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS IT SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WILL KEEP
LOW POP CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS. ANOTHER WARMUP CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND LOWER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
NORTHWEST WIND OF 15 TO 25 KT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL SD...INCLUDING
KRAP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH DAKOTA FIRE ZONES
261-264-265-266 UNTIL 700 PM MDT/800 PM CDT. EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS.

WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF
10 TO 15 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHEAST WYOMING BY LATE MORNING...WITH LESS WIND
POTENTIAL EASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. HOWEVER...SOME
GUSTS OF 25 MPH OR MORE CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER WESTERN SD AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE.

WILL GO WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS WY FIRE ZONES 259-297-298-299. WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE WIND FURTHER EAST...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR THE REST OF OUR FIRE ZONES...SD ZONES 260-266. GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL BE IN THE EXTREME CATEGORY FOR WESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ261-264>266.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ259-
     297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26
FIRE WEATHER...26







000
FXUS63 KUNR 301727
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1127 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
WARM AND DRY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH FIRE WEATHER THE MAIN
CONCERN.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES NEAR HIGH END OF
GUIDANCE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS
TODAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING FOR
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...AND LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
UPPER DISTURBANCE...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW
SHOWING THE BEST BAND OF RAIN/SNOW SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING...NORTHERN COLORADO...AND NEBRASKA.
HIGHS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST
WIND OF 15 TO 25 KT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL SD...INCLUDING KRAP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP ON THE
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15-20 PERCENT AND 20-30 MPH
WINDS...GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX IS IN THE EXTREME CATEGORY.
WILL ISSUE RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTH DAKOTA FIRE ZONES
261-264-265-266.

WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING. WITH COMBINATION OF VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY
WINDS...WILL ISSUE RED FLAG WATCH TUESDAY FOR WYOMING FIRE ZONES
259-297-298. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL BE IN THE EXTREME
CATEGORY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ261-264>266.

WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...26
FIRE WEATHER...7








000
FXUS63 KUNR 301727
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1127 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
WARM AND DRY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH FIRE WEATHER THE MAIN
CONCERN.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES NEAR HIGH END OF
GUIDANCE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS
TODAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING FOR
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...AND LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
UPPER DISTURBANCE...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW
SHOWING THE BEST BAND OF RAIN/SNOW SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING...NORTHERN COLORADO...AND NEBRASKA.
HIGHS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST
WIND OF 15 TO 25 KT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL SD...INCLUDING KRAP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP ON THE
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15-20 PERCENT AND 20-30 MPH
WINDS...GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX IS IN THE EXTREME CATEGORY.
WILL ISSUE RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTH DAKOTA FIRE ZONES
261-264-265-266.

WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING. WITH COMBINATION OF VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY
WINDS...WILL ISSUE RED FLAG WATCH TUESDAY FOR WYOMING FIRE ZONES
259-297-298. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL BE IN THE EXTREME
CATEGORY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ261-264>266.

WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...26
FIRE WEATHER...7







000
FXUS63 KUNR 301727
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1127 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
WARM AND DRY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH FIRE WEATHER THE MAIN
CONCERN.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES NEAR HIGH END OF
GUIDANCE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS
TODAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING FOR
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...AND LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
UPPER DISTURBANCE...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW
SHOWING THE BEST BAND OF RAIN/SNOW SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING...NORTHERN COLORADO...AND NEBRASKA.
HIGHS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST
WIND OF 15 TO 25 KT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL SD...INCLUDING KRAP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP ON THE
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15-20 PERCENT AND 20-30 MPH
WINDS...GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX IS IN THE EXTREME CATEGORY.
WILL ISSUE RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTH DAKOTA FIRE ZONES
261-264-265-266.

WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING. WITH COMBINATION OF VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY
WINDS...WILL ISSUE RED FLAG WATCH TUESDAY FOR WYOMING FIRE ZONES
259-297-298. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL BE IN THE EXTREME
CATEGORY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ261-264>266.

WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...26
FIRE WEATHER...7







000
FXUS63 KUNR 300839
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
239 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
WARM AND DRY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH FIRE WEATHER THE MAIN
CONCERN.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES NEAR HIGH END OF
GUIDANCE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS
TODAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING FOR
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...AND LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
UPPER DISTURBANCE...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW
SHOWING THE BEST BAND OF RAIN/SNOW SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING...NORTHERN COLORADO...AND NEBRASKA.
HIGHS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP ON THE
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15-20 PERCENT AND 20-30 MPH
WINDS...GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX IS IN THE EXTREME CATEGORY.
WILL ISSUE RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTH DAKOTA FIRE ZONES
261-264-265-266.

WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING. WITH COMBINATION OF VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY
WINDS...WILL ISSUE RED FLAG WATCH TUESDAY FOR WYOMING FIRE ZONES
259-297-298. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL BE IN THE EXTREME
CATEGORY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ261-264>266.

WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15
FIRE WEATHER...7









000
FXUS63 KUNR 300445
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1045 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE CWA WITH WEAK
RIDGE OVER CO. SOME CU POPPING UP IN WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE...BUT HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECLINING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS. DEEP
MIXING WILL PROMOTE BREEZY/WINDY SPOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE MILD AND NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER...AND SO SOME RECORD HIGHS MAY BE
BROKEN ON TUESDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK
HILLS...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN SD. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
UPPER DISTURBANCE...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL STATES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. GFS AND GEM STILL SHOWING A BAND OF
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH BOTH HAVE
BROUGHT IT FARTHER SOUTH. 12Z ECM SOLUTION IS DISORGANIZED. TRENDED
SOUTHWARD WITH POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND BROAD-BRUSHED POPS FOR
FRIDAY. HIGHS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE 50S...WARMER
AND DRIER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1043 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WARM...DRY...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE SD PLAINS...STRONGEST IN NORTHWEST
SD WHERE THE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER. TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM
AND DRY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND MIN RH VALUES 12
TO 22 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO 15 MPH. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST WY TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WITH MIN RH VALUES 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...10
FIRE WEATHER...POJORLIE







000
FXUS63 KUNR 300445
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1045 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE CWA WITH WEAK
RIDGE OVER CO. SOME CU POPPING UP IN WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE...BUT HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECLINING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS. DEEP
MIXING WILL PROMOTE BREEZY/WINDY SPOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE MILD AND NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER...AND SO SOME RECORD HIGHS MAY BE
BROKEN ON TUESDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK
HILLS...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN SD. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
UPPER DISTURBANCE...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL STATES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. GFS AND GEM STILL SHOWING A BAND OF
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH BOTH HAVE
BROUGHT IT FARTHER SOUTH. 12Z ECM SOLUTION IS DISORGANIZED. TRENDED
SOUTHWARD WITH POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND BROAD-BRUSHED POPS FOR
FRIDAY. HIGHS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE 50S...WARMER
AND DRIER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1043 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WARM...DRY...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE SD PLAINS...STRONGEST IN NORTHWEST
SD WHERE THE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER. TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM
AND DRY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND MIN RH VALUES 12
TO 22 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO 15 MPH. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST WY TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WITH MIN RH VALUES 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...10
FIRE WEATHER...POJORLIE








000
FXUS63 KUNR 292315
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
515 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE CWA WITH WEAK
RIDGE OVER CO. SOME CU POPPING UP IN WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE...BUT HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECLINING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS. DEEP
MIXING WILL PROMOTE BREEZY/WINDY SPOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE MILD AND NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER...AND SO SOME RECORD HIGHS MAY BE
BROKEN ON TUESDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK
HILLS...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN SD. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
UPPER DISTURBANCE...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL STATES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. GFS AND GEM STILL SHOWING A BAND OF
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH BOTH HAVE
BROUGHT IT FARTHER SOUTH. 12Z ECM SOLUTION IS DISORGANIZED. TRENDED
SOUTHWARD WITH POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND BROAD-BRUSHED POPS FOR
FRIDAY. HIGHS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE 50S...WARMER
AND DRIER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WARM...DRY...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE SD PLAINS...STRONGEST IN NORTHWEST
SD WHERE THE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER. TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM
AND DRY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND MIN RH VALUES 12
TO 22 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO 15 MPH. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST WY TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WITH MIN RH VALUES 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...POJORLIE








000
FXUS63 KUNR 292315
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
515 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE CWA WITH WEAK
RIDGE OVER CO. SOME CU POPPING UP IN WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE...BUT HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECLINING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS. DEEP
MIXING WILL PROMOTE BREEZY/WINDY SPOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE MILD AND NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER...AND SO SOME RECORD HIGHS MAY BE
BROKEN ON TUESDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK
HILLS...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN SD. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
UPPER DISTURBANCE...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL STATES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. GFS AND GEM STILL SHOWING A BAND OF
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH BOTH HAVE
BROUGHT IT FARTHER SOUTH. 12Z ECM SOLUTION IS DISORGANIZED. TRENDED
SOUTHWARD WITH POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND BROAD-BRUSHED POPS FOR
FRIDAY. HIGHS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE 50S...WARMER
AND DRIER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WARM...DRY...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE SD PLAINS...STRONGEST IN NORTHWEST
SD WHERE THE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER. TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM
AND DRY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND MIN RH VALUES 12
TO 22 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO 15 MPH. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST WY TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WITH MIN RH VALUES 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...POJORLIE









000
FXUS63 KUNR 292315
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
515 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE CWA WITH WEAK
RIDGE OVER CO. SOME CU POPPING UP IN WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE...BUT HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECLINING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS. DEEP
MIXING WILL PROMOTE BREEZY/WINDY SPOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE MILD AND NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER...AND SO SOME RECORD HIGHS MAY BE
BROKEN ON TUESDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK
HILLS...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN SD. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
UPPER DISTURBANCE...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL STATES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. GFS AND GEM STILL SHOWING A BAND OF
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH BOTH HAVE
BROUGHT IT FARTHER SOUTH. 12Z ECM SOLUTION IS DISORGANIZED. TRENDED
SOUTHWARD WITH POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND BROAD-BRUSHED POPS FOR
FRIDAY. HIGHS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE 50S...WARMER
AND DRIER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WARM...DRY...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE SD PLAINS...STRONGEST IN NORTHWEST
SD WHERE THE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER. TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM
AND DRY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND MIN RH VALUES 12
TO 22 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO 15 MPH. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST WY TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WITH MIN RH VALUES 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...POJORLIE









000
FXUS63 KUNR 292315
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
515 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE CWA WITH WEAK
RIDGE OVER CO. SOME CU POPPING UP IN WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE...BUT HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECLINING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS. DEEP
MIXING WILL PROMOTE BREEZY/WINDY SPOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE MILD AND NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER...AND SO SOME RECORD HIGHS MAY BE
BROKEN ON TUESDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK
HILLS...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN SD. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
UPPER DISTURBANCE...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL STATES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. GFS AND GEM STILL SHOWING A BAND OF
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH BOTH HAVE
BROUGHT IT FARTHER SOUTH. 12Z ECM SOLUTION IS DISORGANIZED. TRENDED
SOUTHWARD WITH POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND BROAD-BRUSHED POPS FOR
FRIDAY. HIGHS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE 50S...WARMER
AND DRIER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WARM...DRY...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE SD PLAINS...STRONGEST IN NORTHWEST
SD WHERE THE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER. TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM
AND DRY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND MIN RH VALUES 12
TO 22 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO 15 MPH. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST WY TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WITH MIN RH VALUES 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...POJORLIE








000
FXUS63 KUNR 292027
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
227 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE CWA WITH WEAK
RIDGE OVER CO. SOME CU POPPING UP IN WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE...BUT HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECLINING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS. DEEP
MIXING WILL PROMOTE BREEZY/WINDY SPOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE MILD AND NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER...AND SO SOME RECORD HIGHS MAY BE
BROKEN ON TUESDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK
HILLS...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN SD. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
UPPER DISTURBANCE...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL STATES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. GFS AND GEM STILL SHOWING A BAND OF
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH BOTH HAVE
BROUGHT IT FARTHER SOUTH. 12Z ECM SOLUTION IS DISORGANIZED. TRENDED
SOUTHWARD WITH POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND BROAD-BRUSHED POPS FOR FRIDAY.
HIGHS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE 50S...WARMER AND DRIER
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WARM...DRY...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE SD PLAINS...STRONGEST IN NORTHWEST
SD WHERE THE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER. TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM
AND DRY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND MIN RH VALUES 12
TO 22 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO 15 MPH. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST WY TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WITH MIN RH VALUES 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...POJORLIE






000
FXUS63 KUNR 292027
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
227 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE CWA WITH WEAK
RIDGE OVER CO. SOME CU POPPING UP IN WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE...BUT HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECLINING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS. DEEP
MIXING WILL PROMOTE BREEZY/WINDY SPOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE MILD AND NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER...AND SO SOME RECORD HIGHS MAY BE
BROKEN ON TUESDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK
HILLS...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN SD. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
UPPER DISTURBANCE...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL STATES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. GFS AND GEM STILL SHOWING A BAND OF
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH BOTH HAVE
BROUGHT IT FARTHER SOUTH. 12Z ECM SOLUTION IS DISORGANIZED. TRENDED
SOUTHWARD WITH POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND BROAD-BRUSHED POPS FOR FRIDAY.
HIGHS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE 50S...WARMER AND DRIER
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WARM...DRY...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE SD PLAINS...STRONGEST IN NORTHWEST
SD WHERE THE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER. TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM
AND DRY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND MIN RH VALUES 12
TO 22 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO 15 MPH. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST WY TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WITH MIN RH VALUES 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...POJORLIE





000
FXUS63 KUNR 291721
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1121 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD 8MB/3HR PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE SHIFTING
EAST OF THE CWA WITH RAPIDLY DECREASING WINDS BEHIND IT. WILL
ALLOW HIGH WIND WARNING TO EXPIRE ON TIME WITH LEFTOVER WIND
ADVISORY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD LASTING A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WITH SECONDARY TROF ROTATING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. WITH 5-6MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH SECONDARY TROF...SEEING SECOND ROUND OF WIND GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH. BEST PRESSURE RISES SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...WITH DECREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL LEAVE
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITY...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE
IN THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME CATEGORY.

WARM AND DRY FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WITH DEEP MIXING...WILL BECOME BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE IN EXTREME CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR OUR CWA. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE...BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT...KEEPING THE BEST ENERGY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. ECM/GFS/GEM ARE ALL HINTING AT A BAND OF PRECIP SETTING UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS DRYING OUT LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME OF THE
PRECIP MAY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING IN MOST PLACES. TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
LOOK TO BE NEAR AVERAGE...IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...POJORLIE








000
FXUS63 KUNR 291721
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1121 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD 8MB/3HR PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE SHIFTING
EAST OF THE CWA WITH RAPIDLY DECREASING WINDS BEHIND IT. WILL
ALLOW HIGH WIND WARNING TO EXPIRE ON TIME WITH LEFTOVER WIND
ADVISORY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD LASTING A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WITH SECONDARY TROF ROTATING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. WITH 5-6MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH SECONDARY TROF...SEEING SECOND ROUND OF WIND GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH. BEST PRESSURE RISES SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...WITH DECREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL LEAVE
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITY...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE
IN THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME CATEGORY.

WARM AND DRY FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WITH DEEP MIXING...WILL BECOME BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE IN EXTREME CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR OUR CWA. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE...BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT...KEEPING THE BEST ENERGY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. ECM/GFS/GEM ARE ALL HINTING AT A BAND OF PRECIP SETTING UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS DRYING OUT LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME OF THE
PRECIP MAY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING IN MOST PLACES. TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
LOOK TO BE NEAR AVERAGE...IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...POJORLIE








000
FXUS63 KUNR 291721
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1121 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD 8MB/3HR PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE SHIFTING
EAST OF THE CWA WITH RAPIDLY DECREASING WINDS BEHIND IT. WILL
ALLOW HIGH WIND WARNING TO EXPIRE ON TIME WITH LEFTOVER WIND
ADVISORY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD LASTING A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WITH SECONDARY TROF ROTATING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. WITH 5-6MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH SECONDARY TROF...SEEING SECOND ROUND OF WIND GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH. BEST PRESSURE RISES SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...WITH DECREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL LEAVE
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITY...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE
IN THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME CATEGORY.

WARM AND DRY FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WITH DEEP MIXING...WILL BECOME BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE IN EXTREME CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR OUR CWA. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE...BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT...KEEPING THE BEST ENERGY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. ECM/GFS/GEM ARE ALL HINTING AT A BAND OF PRECIP SETTING UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS DRYING OUT LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME OF THE
PRECIP MAY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING IN MOST PLACES. TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
LOOK TO BE NEAR AVERAGE...IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...POJORLIE







000
FXUS63 KUNR 291721
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1121 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD 8MB/3HR PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE SHIFTING
EAST OF THE CWA WITH RAPIDLY DECREASING WINDS BEHIND IT. WILL
ALLOW HIGH WIND WARNING TO EXPIRE ON TIME WITH LEFTOVER WIND
ADVISORY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD LASTING A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WITH SECONDARY TROF ROTATING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. WITH 5-6MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH SECONDARY TROF...SEEING SECOND ROUND OF WIND GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH. BEST PRESSURE RISES SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...WITH DECREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL LEAVE
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITY...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE
IN THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME CATEGORY.

WARM AND DRY FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WITH DEEP MIXING...WILL BECOME BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE IN EXTREME CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR OUR CWA. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE...BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT...KEEPING THE BEST ENERGY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. ECM/GFS/GEM ARE ALL HINTING AT A BAND OF PRECIP SETTING UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS DRYING OUT LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME OF THE
PRECIP MAY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING IN MOST PLACES. TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
LOOK TO BE NEAR AVERAGE...IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...POJORLIE







000
FXUS63 KUNR 291503
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
903 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD 8MB/3HR PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE SHIFTING
EAST OF THE CWA WITH RAPIDLY DECREASING WINDS BEHIND IT. WILL
ALLOW HIGH WIND WARNING TO EXPIRE ON TIME WITH LEFTOVER WIND
ADVISORY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD LASTING A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WITH SECONDARY TROF ROTATING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. WITH 5-6MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH SECONDARY TROF...SEEING SECOND ROUND OF WIND GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH. BEST PRESSURE RISES SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...WITH DECREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL LEAVE
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITY...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE
IN THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME CATEGORY.

WARM AND DRY FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WITH DEEP MIXING...WILL BECOME BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE IN EXTREME CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR OUR CWA. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE...BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT...KEEPING THE BEST ENERGY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. ECM/GFS/GEM ARE ALL HINTING AT A BAND OF PRECIP SETTING UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS DRYING OUT LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME OF THE
PRECIP MAY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING IN MOST PLACES. TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
LOOK TO BE NEAR AVERAGE...IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS WITH A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK
HILLS AND OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA VERY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY
15Z. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR SDZ046-047-049.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15





000
FXUS63 KUNR 291503
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
903 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD 8MB/3HR PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE SHIFTING
EAST OF THE CWA WITH RAPIDLY DECREASING WINDS BEHIND IT. WILL
ALLOW HIGH WIND WARNING TO EXPIRE ON TIME WITH LEFTOVER WIND
ADVISORY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD LASTING A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WITH SECONDARY TROF ROTATING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. WITH 5-6MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH SECONDARY TROF...SEEING SECOND ROUND OF WIND GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH. BEST PRESSURE RISES SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...WITH DECREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL LEAVE
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITY...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE
IN THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME CATEGORY.

WARM AND DRY FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WITH DEEP MIXING...WILL BECOME BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE IN EXTREME CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR OUR CWA. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE...BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT...KEEPING THE BEST ENERGY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. ECM/GFS/GEM ARE ALL HINTING AT A BAND OF PRECIP SETTING UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS DRYING OUT LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME OF THE
PRECIP MAY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING IN MOST PLACES. TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
LOOK TO BE NEAR AVERAGE...IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS WITH A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK
HILLS AND OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA VERY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY
15Z. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR SDZ046-047-049.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15






000
FXUS63 KUNR 291503
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
903 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD 8MB/3HR PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE SHIFTING
EAST OF THE CWA WITH RAPIDLY DECREASING WINDS BEHIND IT. WILL
ALLOW HIGH WIND WARNING TO EXPIRE ON TIME WITH LEFTOVER WIND
ADVISORY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD LASTING A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WITH SECONDARY TROF ROTATING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. WITH 5-6MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH SECONDARY TROF...SEEING SECOND ROUND OF WIND GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH. BEST PRESSURE RISES SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...WITH DECREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL LEAVE
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITY...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE
IN THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME CATEGORY.

WARM AND DRY FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WITH DEEP MIXING...WILL BECOME BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE IN EXTREME CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR OUR CWA. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE...BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT...KEEPING THE BEST ENERGY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. ECM/GFS/GEM ARE ALL HINTING AT A BAND OF PRECIP SETTING UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS DRYING OUT LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME OF THE
PRECIP MAY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING IN MOST PLACES. TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
LOOK TO BE NEAR AVERAGE...IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS WITH A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK
HILLS AND OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA VERY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY
15Z. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR SDZ046-047-049.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15





000
FXUS63 KUNR 290846
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
246 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WITH SECONDARY TROF ROTATING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. WITH 5-6MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH SECONDARY TROF...SEEING SECOND ROUND OF WIND GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH. BEST PRESSURE RISES SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...WITH DECREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL LEAVE
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITY...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE
IN THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME CATEGORY.

WARM AND DRY FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WITH DEEP MIXING...WILL BECOME BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE IN EXTREME CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR OUR CWA. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE...BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT...KEEPING THE BEST ENERGY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. ECM/GFS/GEM ARE ALL HINTING AT A BAND OF PRECIP SETTING UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS DRYING OUT LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME OF THE
PRECIP MAY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING IN MOST PLACES. TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
LOOK TO BE NEAR AVERAGE...IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS WITH A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK
HILLS AND OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA VERY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY
15Z. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR SDZ013-014-026-
     030>032-042>044-072>074.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR SDZ046-047-049.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SDZ027-041.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SDZ001-
     002-012-025.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15







000
FXUS63 KUNR 290846
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
246 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WITH SECONDARY TROF ROTATING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. WITH 5-6MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH SECONDARY TROF...SEEING SECOND ROUND OF WIND GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH. BEST PRESSURE RISES SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...WITH DECREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL LEAVE
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITY...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE
IN THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME CATEGORY.

WARM AND DRY FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WITH DEEP MIXING...WILL BECOME BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE IN EXTREME CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR OUR CWA. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE...BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT...KEEPING THE BEST ENERGY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. ECM/GFS/GEM ARE ALL HINTING AT A BAND OF PRECIP SETTING UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS DRYING OUT LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME OF THE
PRECIP MAY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING IN MOST PLACES. TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
LOOK TO BE NEAR AVERAGE...IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS WITH A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK
HILLS AND OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA VERY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY
15Z. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR SDZ013-014-026-
     030>032-042>044-072>074.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR SDZ046-047-049.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SDZ027-041.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SDZ001-
     002-012-025.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15








000
FXUS63 KUNR 290846
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
246 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WITH SECONDARY TROF ROTATING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. WITH 5-6MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH SECONDARY TROF...SEEING SECOND ROUND OF WIND GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH. BEST PRESSURE RISES SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...WITH DECREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL LEAVE
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITY...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE
IN THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME CATEGORY.

WARM AND DRY FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WITH DEEP MIXING...WILL BECOME BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE IN EXTREME CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR OUR CWA. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE...BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT...KEEPING THE BEST ENERGY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. ECM/GFS/GEM ARE ALL HINTING AT A BAND OF PRECIP SETTING UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS DRYING OUT LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME OF THE
PRECIP MAY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING IN MOST PLACES. TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
LOOK TO BE NEAR AVERAGE...IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS WITH A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK
HILLS AND OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA VERY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY
15Z. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR SDZ013-014-026-
     030>032-042>044-072>074.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR SDZ046-047-049.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SDZ027-041.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SDZ001-
     002-012-025.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15








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