000
FXUS65 KVEF 231030
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
330 AM PDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT.
WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TODAY AND WILL DROP OFF A BIT MORE
ON FRIDAY BUT LOCALLY BREEZY AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A FAIRLY STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOJAVE DESERT AND ANOTHER VORT LOBE SWINGING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA SHOULD LEAD TO GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ACROSS
NORTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER
WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FROM NOON UNTIL 9 PM PDT. THE LATEST MODELS
ALL INDICATE THE CENTER OF THE PACIFIC LOW WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHWEST
CANADA AND WEAKEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW WIND SPEEDS
TO DECREASE CONSIDERABLY AND TEMPERATURES TO TREND SLIGHTLY UPWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
SIGNIFICANT MODEL CHANGES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS STARTING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FAIRLY STRONG
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND
EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ONLY
REAL DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS ACTUAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS/GEM MODELS TAKE THIS SYSTEM FURTHER
INLAND WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS THIS FEATURE OFF THE COAST BEFORE
TURNING INLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT THE
REAL QUESTION IS PRECIPITATION. SINCE THE ECMWF TRACKS THIS FEATURE
FURTHER OFF SHORE IT HAS TIME TO GATHER PACIFIC MOISTURE BEFORE
TURNING INLAND. THE 00Z RUN SHOWS A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS/GEM MODELS ARE NOT A WET SINCE THE TRACK IS
FURTHER INLAND. HOWEVER...THEY ARE BOTH GENERATING SOME
PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. DID GO AHEAD AND UP
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR NOW. AS THIS
SYSTEM EXITS EAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ANOTHER LOW WILL PUSH
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH IN TURN WILL HELP REDEVELOP A
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO OCCASIONAL
BREEZY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT DROP TO POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO WEAKEN DURING THE
MORNING...BUT INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 15-25 KTS. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 25-35 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WITH A SLIGHT
LULL DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA WHERE GUSTS
UP TO 45 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF MOHAVE COUNTY SO A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ZONE 102 FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST
THIS EVENING. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY BUT AFTERNOON GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR AZZ102.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
CAZ523.
&&
$$
ADAIR/GORELOW
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
000
FXUS65 KVEF 230659
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1159 PM PDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS STRONG ON THURSDAY AND WILL DROP OFF A BIT MORE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT MIDNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME WEAKENING OF THE WINDS DURING THE
NIGHT...BUT OVERALL THE WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20 KTS. GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AND THE DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR CONFIG #1.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 25-35 KTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT LULL
OVERNIGHT...THEN PICK UP AGAIN LATE THURSDAY MORNING ...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
258 PM PDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST AS A LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT A TOUCH NORTHWARD EACH DAY
RESULTING IN SOME DECREASE IN WINDS EACH DAY. HOWEVER...LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON. THE WIND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND MUCH OF MOHAVE COUNTY
ARE WORKING OUT PRETTY WELL AND REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND
7 PM RESPECTIVELY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THURSDAY BUT COULD GET CLOSE IN MOHAVE COUNTY.
.LONG TERM...MINIMAL CHANGE WAS NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES AND RESULTS IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE VARIABLE AND MINIMAL. THE
ONLY NOTABLE FEATURE IS A SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT OTHER THAN BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGHER ELEVATION
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A
SLIGHT UPTICK TO WINDS ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT.
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...STRONGER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WIND
SPEEDS WILL LULL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL NOT DROP TO BELOW
10KTS. THURSDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 30KTS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL FAVOR CONFIG#1 OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 25-35 KTS WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...LULL
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...THEN PICK UP AGAIN LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING OVER FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 102 AND 465 WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OVER 35 MPH AND HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING. LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWS HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH AGAIN THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF MOHAVE COUNTY SO A
RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR ZONE 102. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ102.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
MORGAN/GORELOW/HARRISON/KENNEDY
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
000
FXUS65 KVEF 230303
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
803 PM PDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS STRONG ON THURSDAY AND WILL DROP OFF A BIT MORE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNINGS TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AS
WINDS HAD SUBSIDED AT MOST STATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KTS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10-20 KTS.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 30KTS. WIND DIRECTION
WILL FAVOR CONFIG#1 OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 25-35 KTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT LULL
OVERNIGHT...THEN PICK UP AGAIN LATE THURSDAY MORNING ...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
258 PM PDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST AS A LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT A TOUCH NORTHWARD EACH DAY
RESULTING IN SOME DECREASE IN WINDS EACH DAY. HOWEVER...LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON. THE WIND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND MUCH OF MOHAVE COUNTY
ARE WORKING OUT PRETTY WELL AND REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND
7 PM RESPECTIVELY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THURSDAY BUT COULD GET CLOSE IN MOHAVE COUNTY.
.LONG TERM...MINIMAL CHANGE WAS NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES AND RESULTS IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE VARIABLE AND MINIMAL. THE
ONLY NOTABLE FEATURE IS A SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT OTHER THAN BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGHER ELEVATION
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A
SLIGHT UPTICK TO WINDS ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT.
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...STRONGER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WIND
SPEEDS WILL LULL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL NOT DROP TO BELOW
10KTS. THURSDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 30KTS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL FAVOR CONFIG#1 OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 25-35 KTS WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...LULL
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...THEN PICK UP AGAIN LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING OVER FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 102 AND 465 WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OVER 35 MPH AND HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING. LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWS HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH AGAIN THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF MOHAVE COUNTY SO A
RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR ZONE 102. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ102.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR CAZ523.
&&
$$
MORGAN/GORELOW/HARRISON/KENNEDY
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
000
FXUS65 KVEF 230214
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
714 PM PDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS STRONG ON THURSDAY AND WILL DROP OFF A BIT MORE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR MOHAVE COUNTY TO EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE AS WINDS HAD SUBSIDED AT ALL BUT ONE STATION. CONTEMPLATED
CANCELLING THE ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AS
WELL...BUT BARSTOW AND FORT IRWIN WERE STILL GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH
WHICH COULD AFFECT TRAFFIC ON I-15. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KTS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10-20 KTS.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 30KTS. WIND DIRECTION
WILL FAVOR CONFIG#1 OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 25-35 KTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT LULL
OVERNIGHT...THEN PICK UP AGAIN LATE THURSDAY MORNING ...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
258 PM PDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST AS A LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT A TOUCH NORTHWARD EACH DAY
RESULTING IN SOME DECREASE IN WINDS EACH DAY. HOWEVER...LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON. THE WIND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND MUCH OF MOHAVE COUNTY
ARE WORKING OUT PRETTY WELL AND REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND
7 PM RESPECTIVELY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THURSDAY BUT COULD GET CLOSE IN MOHAVE COUNTY.
.LONG TERM...MINIMAL CHANGE WAS NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES AND RESULTS IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE VARIABLE AND MINIMAL. THE
ONLY NOTABLE FEATURE IS A SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT OTHER THAN BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGHER ELEVATION
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A
SLIGHT UPTICK TO WINDS ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT.
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...STRONGER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WIND
SPEEDS WILL LULL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL NOT DROP TO BELOW
10KTS. THURSDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 30KTS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL FAVOR CONFIG#1 OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 25-35 KTS WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...LULL
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...THEN PICK UP AGAIN LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING OVER FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 102 AND 465 WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OVER 35 MPH AND HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING. LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWS HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH AGAIN THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF MOHAVE COUNTY SO A
RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR ZONE 102. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NVZ465.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ102.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ102.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR CAZ523.
&&
$$
MORGAN/GORELOW/HARRISON/KENNEDY
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
000
FXUS65 KVEF 222202
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
258 PM PDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS STRONG ON THURSDAY AND WILL DROP OFF A BIT MORE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST AS A LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT A TOUCH NORTHWARD EACH DAY
RESULTING IN SOME DECREASE IN WINDS EACH DAY. HOWEVER...LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON. THE WIND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND MUCH OF MOHAVE COUNTY
ARE WORKING OUT PRETTY WELL AND REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND
7 PM RESPECTIVELY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THURSDAY BUT COULD GET CLOSE IN MOHAVE COUNTY.
.LONG TERM...MINIMAL CHANGE WAS NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES AND RESULTS IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE VARIABLE AND MINIMAL. THE
ONLY NOTABLE FEATURE IS A SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT OTHER THAN BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGHER ELEVATION
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A
SLIGHT UPTICK TO WINDS ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...STRONGER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WIND
SPEEDS WILL LULL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL NOT DROP TO BELOW
10KTS. THURSDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 30KTS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL FAVOR CONFIG#1 OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 25-35 KTS WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...LULL
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...THEN PICK UP AGAIN LATE THURSDAY MORNING
...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. &&
.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING OVER FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 102 AND 465 WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OVER 35 MPH AND HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING. LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWS HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH AGAIN THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF MOHAVE COUNTY SO A
RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR ZONE 102. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NVZ465.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ102.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ102.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ001-003.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR CAZ523.
&&
$$
HARRISON/KENNEDY
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
000
FXUS65 KVEF 221923
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1222 PM PDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. TODAY WILL BE THE WINDIEST DAY
WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF MOHAVE AND NORTHERN
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES.
&&
.UPDATE...WINDS HAVE KICKED IN PRETTY WELL ACROSS CLARK COUNTY A BIT
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. I UPDATED TO INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER ZONE 465
IN THE RED FLAG WARNING VALID UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
342 AM PDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW
COULD BE SEEN DIGGING SLIGHTLY ON RECENT SATELLITE LOOPS AS ENERGY
DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
WINDS TODAY...STRONGEST OVER NORTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES AS INDICATED IN THE GOING WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TIMING THE DECREASING TREND FOR WINDS
THIS EVENING BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND
CONSISTENCY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT WHILE MOHAVE COUNTY
WAS TRIMMED BACK TO END AT 7 PM MST. WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL
DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT FOR WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 40 MPH IN
RED ROCK CANYON THIS EVENING BUT THE LATEST MODELS INDICATE A
MARGINAL EVENT.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE
LATEST MODEL WIND FIELDS LOOK STRONGER THAN THEY DID 24 HOURS AGO
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A VORT LOBE IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND SHOULD ENHANCE SPEEDS. THOUGH LESS
WIDESPREAD...MAY SEE SOME GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IN SIMILAR AREAS TO
TODAY AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER RUNS FOR A POTENTIAL EXTENSION
OF ADVISORIES INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WEAKER FRIDAY
AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP 3-5 DEGREES THURSDAY BUT VARIATIONS WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY NOTICEABLE DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY PUSHING INTO NORTHERN NEVADA
WHICH IS DEEPER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS...DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA STARTING MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH REMAINS FIRMLY
IN PLACE. FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. &&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 13-17 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS THROUGH 18Z BEFORE GUSTS TO NEAR 30KTS ARE SEEN
BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO BETWEEN 25-30 KTS THROUGH MID MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO OVER 40 MPH ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM INITIALLY DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TODAY...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND IN MOHAVE COUNTY OUTSIDE OF THE
RIVER VALLEY. GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS. THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED TO
MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 102 AND A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA
IN SOME OTHER AREAS BUT THE EITHER THE DURATION OR GEOGRAPHICAL
EXTENT WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING...OR
FUELS ARE NOT REPORTED AS CRITICAL. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THEN
NOTICEABLY LIGHTER FRIDAY.
&&
NV....RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
NVZ465.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
AZZ102.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
AZZ001-003.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR CAZ523.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HARRISON
PREV DISCUSSION...ADAIR/GORELOW
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
000
FXUS65 KVEF 221616
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
916 AM PDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. TODAY WILL BE THE WINDIEST DAY
WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF MOHAVE AND NORTHERN
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES.
&&
.UPDATE...SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES NEEDED
THIS MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
342 AM PDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW
COULD BE SEEN DIGGING SLIGHTLY ON RECENT SATELLITE LOOPS AS ENERGY
DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
WINDS TODAY...STRONGEST OVER NORTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES AS INDICATED IN THE GOING WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TIMING THE DECREASING TREND FOR WINDS
THIS EVENING BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND
CONSISTENCY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT WHILE MOHAVE COUNTY
WAS TRIMMED BACK TO END AT 7 PM MST. WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL
DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT FOR WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 40 MPH IN
RED ROCK CANYON THIS EVENING BUT THE LATEST MODELS INDICATE A
MARGINAL EVENT.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE
LATEST MODEL WIND FIELDS LOOK STRONGER THAN THEY DID 24 HOURS AGO
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A VORT LOBE IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND SHOULD ENHANCE SPEEDS. THOUGH LESS
WIDESPREAD...MAY SEE SOME GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IN SIMILAR AREAS TO
TODAY AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER RUNS FOR A POTENTIAL EXTENSION
OF ADVISORIES INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WEAKER FRIDAY
AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP 3-5 DEGREES THURSDAY BUT VARIATIONS WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY NOTICEABLE DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY PUSHING INTO NORTHERN NEVADA
WHICH IS DEEPER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS...DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA STARTING MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH REMAINS FIRMLY
IN PLACE. FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. &&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 13-17 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS THROUGH 18Z BEFORE GUSTS TO NEAR 30KTS ARE SEEN
BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO BETWEEN 25-30 KTS THROUGH MID MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO OVER 40 MPH ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM INITIALLY DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TODAY...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND IN MOHAVE COUNTY OUTSIDE OF THE
RIVER VALLEY. GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS. THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED TO
MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 102 AND A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA
IN SOME OTHER AREAS BUT THE EITHER THE DURATION OR GEOGRAPHICAL
EXTENT WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING...OR
FUELS ARE NOT REPORTED AS CRITICAL. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THEN
NOTICEABLY LIGHTER FRIDAY.
&&
NV...NONE.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
AZZ102.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
AZZ001-003.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR CAZ523.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HARRISON
PREV DISCUSSION...ADAIR/GORELOW
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
000
FXUS65 KVEF 221042
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
342 AM PDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. TODAY WILL BE THE WINDIEST DAY
WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF MOHAVE AND NORTHERN
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW
COULD BE SEEN DIGGING SLIGHTLY ON RECENT SATELLITE LOOPS AS ENERGY
DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
WINDS TODAY...STRONGEST OVER NORTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES AS INDICATED IN THE GOING WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TIMING THE DECREASING TREND FOR WINDS
THIS EVENING BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND
CONSISTENCY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT WHILE MOHAVE COUNTY
WAS TRIMMED BACK TO END AT 7 PM MST. WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL
DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT FOR WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 40 MPH IN
RED ROCK CANYON THIS EVENING BUT THE LATEST MODELS INDICATE A
MARGINAL EVENT.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE
LATEST MODEL WIND FIELDS LOOK STRONGER THAN THEY DID 24 HOURS AGO
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A VORT LOBE IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND SHOULD ENHANCE SPEEDS. THOUGH LESS
WIDESPREAD...MAY SEE SOME GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IN SIMILAR AREAS TO
TODAY AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER RUNS FOR A POTENTIAL EXTENSION
OF ADVISORIES INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WEAKER FRIDAY
AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP 3-5 DEGREES THURSDAY BUT VARIATIONS WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY NOTICEABLE DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY PUSHING INTO NORTHERN NEVADA
WHICH IS DEEPER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS...DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA STARTING MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH REMAINS FIRMLY
IN PLACE. FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. &&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 13-17 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS THROUGH 18Z BEFORE GUSTS TO NEAR 30KTS ARE SEEN
BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO BETWEEN 25-30 KTS THROUGH MID MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO OVER 40 MPH ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM INITIALLY DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TODAY...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND IN MOHAVE COUNTY OUTSIDE OF THE
RIVER VALLEY. GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS. THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED TO
MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 102 AND A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA
IN SOME OTHER AREAS BUT THE EITHER THE DURATION OR GEOGRAPHICAL
EXTENT WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING...OR
FUELS ARE NOT REPORTED AS CRITICAL. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THEN
NOTICEABLY LIGHTER FRIDAY.
&&
NV...NONE.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
AZZ102.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
AZZ001-003.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR CAZ523.
&&
$$
ADAIR/GORELOW
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
000
FXUS65 KVEF 220420 AAA
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
920 PM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
WINDIEST DAY WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF SAN
BERNARDINO AND MOHAVE COUNTIES.
&&
.UPDATE...EXTENDED PERIOD OF BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS UNDERWAY. WINDS WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE PLACEMENT OF A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SEVERAL WIND PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. LATEST HI-RES MODEL SHOWS STRONGEST WINDS
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AS WELL
AS AROUND THE SPRING MTNS. CROSS SECTION ACROSS THE SRN SIERRA
NEVADA AND SPRING MTN DOES SHOW SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS PENETRATING
DOWN THE LEESIDE SLOPES...BUT NOT AT A MAGNITUDE THAT WOULD
NECESSITATE ANY ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS.
ALL OF THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED EAST SO DID UPDATE THE SKY GRIDS
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 12-16 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE GUSTS TO NEAR 30KTS
ARE SEEN BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO BETWEEN 25-30 KTS...DECREASING SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT THEN
INCREASING AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO OVER 40 MPH
ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
230 PM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER
LOW WILL REMAIN BASICALLY STATIONARY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BE SEEN AT TIMES BUT OVERALL LOOKING AT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS THE
TROUGH INITIALLY DEEPENS WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MODELS INDICATING STRONG POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH IN WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO AND MUCH OF MOHAVE
COUNTIES. I DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS
BEGINNING AT NOON WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE LIGHTER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL STILL BE AT LEAST LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS BOTH AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL
BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEK IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS
THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MONDAY...HOWEVER
THERE DOES BECOME SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES AS YOU MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/ MONDAY TIME FRAME WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARDS A
WEAKER/FLATTER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...THAN THE GFS/GEMS.
HOWEVER BY TUESDAY THE MODELS ONCE AGAIN COME INTO PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT. EITHER WAY...THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO KEEP THE MAIN
ENERGY FROM ANY SHORT WAVES NORTH OF THE REGION...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY...WITH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING PROBABLY BEING THE
WINDIEST PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM. UNDER THE GENERAL
TROUGHINESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD ALSO.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM INITIALLY DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND IN MOHAVE COUNTY OUTSIDE OF
THE RIVER VALLEY. GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS. THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED TO
MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 102 AND THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO RED
FLAG CRITERIA IN SOME OTHER AREAS BUT THE EITHER THE DURATION OR
GEOGRAPHICAL EXTENT WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A RED FLAG
WARNING...OR FUELS ARE NOT REPORTED AS CRITICAL. AFTER
WEDNESDAY...LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST EACH AFTERNOON BUT
OVERALL THE WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHTER.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR AZZ001-003.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR AZZ102.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ523.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PIERCE
PREV DISCUSSION...HARRISON/JENSEN
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
000
FXUS65 KVEF 212131
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
230 PM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
WINDIEST DAY WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF SAN
BERNARDINO AND MOHAVE COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER
LOW WILL REMAIN BASICALLY STATIONARY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BE SEEN AT TIMES BUT OVERALL LOOKING AT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS THE
TROUGH INITIALLY DEEPENS WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MODELS INDICATING STRONG POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH IN WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO AND MUCH OF MOHAVE
COUNTIES. I DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS
BEGINNING AT NOON WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE LIGHTER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL STILL BE AT LEAST LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS BOTH AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL
BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEK IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS
THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MONDAY...HOWEVER
THERE DOES BECOME SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES AS YOU MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/ MONDAY TIME FRAME WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARDS A
WEAKER/FLATTER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...THAN THE GFS/GEMS.
HOWEVER BY TUESDAY THE MODELS ONCE AGAIN COME INTO PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT. EITHER WAY...THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO KEEP THE MAIN
ENERGY FROM ANY SHORT WAVES NORTH OF THE REGION...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY...WITH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING PROBABLY BEING THE
WINDIEST PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM. UNDER THE GENERAL
TROUGHINESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD ALSO. &&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 12-16 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS TIL AROUND 04Z...THEN BECOMING 10-15KTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE GUSTS TO NEAR 30KTS ARE SEEN BY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO BETWEEN 25-30 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...DECREASING SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASING AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO
OVER 40 MPH ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA. VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM INITIALLY DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND IN MOHAVE COUNTY OUTSIDE OF
THE RIVER VALLEY. GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS. THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED TO
MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 102 AND THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO RED
FLAG CRITERIA IN SOME OTHER AREAS BUT THE EITHER THE DURATION OR
GEOGRAPHICAL EXTENT WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A RED FLAG
WARNING...OR FUELS ARE NOT REPORTED AS CRITICAL. AFTER
WEDNESDAY...LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST EACH AFTERNOON BUT
OVERALL THE WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHTER.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR AZZ001-003.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR AZZ102.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ523.
&&
$$
HARRISON/JENSEN
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
000
FXUS65 KVEF 211628
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
928 AM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PARK OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY AND BRING PERSISTENT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
FROM MID WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK
TODAY...DIP SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY THEN REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.UPDATE...BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA A BIT
THICKER AND MORE EXTENSIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SO I UPDATED SKY
COVER GRIDS FOR TODAY ACCORDINGLY. -HARRISON-
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
325 AM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RECENT SATELLITE LOOPS
SHOWED THE ANTICIPATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A PROLONGED
INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER PATTERN AS IT PARKS OVER WASHINGTON AND
OREGON THROUGH THURSDAY WITH VORT LOBES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE CLOSED LOW AND BRUSHING THE GREAT BASIN. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS WITH THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE PERIOD THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
IN TIMING OF VORT LOBES CIRCULATING AROUND IT. SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH 20-30 MPH WINDS OVER NORTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEDNESDAY AS THE WINDIEST
DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM DIGS SOUTHWARD AND SETS UP A
SIGNIFICANT THERMAL GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MOJAVE DESERT AND NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. A FAIRLY STRONG BELT OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IS FORECAST
ACROSS NORTHERN SAN BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN INYO COUNTIES UP ACROSS
CLARK...LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OVER 40 MPH LOOK LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY AND POSSIBLY THE SPRING MOUNTAINS/RED ROCK CANYON.
SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE THERMAL
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO RELAX A LITTLE THURSDAY THOUGH A VORT LOBE
MAY BRUSH THE GREAT BASIN. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN
RESULT. HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK TODAY THEN LOWER A FEW DEGREES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN
PARKED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTH OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT A GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST
COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OVER MOST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AS
A WEAK IMPULSE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE NON EXISTENT AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WIND AT 8 KTS OR LESS WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 12-16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TODAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH MID MORNING WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS 10-20 KTS AND GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-30 KTS. VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A FAVORABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA. INCREASED WINDS WILL FIRST BEGIN IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT
TODAY AND THEN SPREAD AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS OF 35 TO 40
MPH ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH VERY
DRY FUELS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING TIME PERIOD.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ102.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
ADAIR/GORELOW
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
000
FXUS65 KVEF 211025
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
325 AM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PARK OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY AND BRING PERSISTENT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
FROM MID WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK
TODAY...DIP SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY THEN REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RECENT SATELLITE LOOPS
SHOWED THE ANTICIPATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A PROLONGED
INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER PATTERN AS IT PARKS OVER WASHINGTON AND
OREGON THROUGH THURSDAY WITH VORT LOBES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE CLOSED LOW AND BRUSHING THE GREAT BASIN. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS WITH THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE PERIOD THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
IN TIMING OF VORT LOBES CIRCULATING AROUND IT. SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH 20-30 MPH WINDS OVER NORTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEDNESDAY AS THE WINDIEST
DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM DIGS SOUTHWARD AND SETS UP A
SIGNIFICANT THERMAL GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MOJAVE DESERT AND NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. A FAIRLY STRONG BELT OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IS FORECAST
ACROSS NORTHERN SAN BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN INYO COUNTIES UP ACROSS
CLARK...LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OVER 40 MPH LOOK LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY AND POSSIBLY THE SPRING MOUNTAINS/RED ROCK CANYON.
SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE THERMAL
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO RELAX A LITTLE THURSDAY THOUGH A VORT LOBE
MAY BRUSH THE GREAT BASIN. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN
RESULT. HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK TODAY THEN LOWER A FEW DEGREES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN
PARKED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTH OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT A GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST
COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OVER MOST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AS
A WEAK IMPULSE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE NON EXISTENT AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WIND AT 8 KTS OR LESS WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 12-16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TODAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH MID MORNING WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS 10-20 KTS AND GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-30 KTS. VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A FAVORABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA. INCREASED WINDS WILL FIRST BEGIN IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT
TODAY AND THEN SPREAD AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS OF 35 TO 40
MPH ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH VERY
DRY FUELS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING TIME PERIOD.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ102.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
ADAIR/GORELOW
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
000
FXUS65 KVEF 210401 AAA
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
901 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER
WINDS TONIGHT BUT A STORM DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
TUESDAY WILL BRING PERSISTENT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FROM
MID WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN COOLING TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WITH LEADING EDGE OF HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA THIS EVENING. GFS TIME HEIGHT SHOWS MOST CONCENTRATED
AREA OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. A
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
FOR THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF MOHAVE COUNTY WEDNESDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF A WIND ADVISORY BEING NEEDED FOR THE WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AS WELL WEDNESDAY. NO UPDATE
NECESSARY THIS EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHERLY WIND AT 8 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 12-16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
HIGH CLOUDS BECOMING BKN-OVC AROUND 25 KFT LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY WINDS TONIGHT.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO 10-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
CLOUDS BECOMING BKN-OVC AROUND 25 KFT LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
254 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT DROPS
SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN COASTLINE AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND ITS BASE AND INLAND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY BREEZY MID TO LATE WEEK BUT COULD BECOME ENHANCED AT TIMES
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. TIMING OF SHORTWAVES
WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING WHEN THE STRONGEST WIND PERIODS WILL
BE...WHICH CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON IN ANTICIPATION OF
STRONGER WINDS OVER MOHAVE COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME BUT A DEEPER/SHARPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD RESULT IN MORE MOISTURE GETTING FURTHER SOUTH
AND PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...FALLING TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND HAVE NOT REALLY CHANGED MUCH
FROM WHAT PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT. BASICALLY LOOKING AT
AN UPPER LOW PERSISTING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KICK UP WINDS AT
TIMES BUT OVERALL BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A FAVORABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA. INCREASED WINDS WILL FIRST BEGIN IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT
ON TUESDAY AND THEN SPREAD AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME PERIOD.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ102.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PIERCE
PREV DISCUSSION...SALMEN/HARRISON
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
000
FXUS65 KVEF 202153
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
254 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER
WINDS TONIGHT BUT A STORM DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
TUESDAY WILL BRING PERSISTENT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FROM
MID WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN COOLING TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT DROPS
SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN COASTLINE AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND ITS BASE AND INLAND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY BREEZY MID TO LATE WEEK BUT COULD BECOME ENHANCED AT TIMES
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. TIMING OF SHORTWAVES
WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING WHEN THE STRONGEST WIND PERIODS WILL
BE...WHICH CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON IN ANTICIPATION OF
STRONGER WINDS OVER MOHAVE COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME BUT A DEEPER/SHARPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD RESULT IN MORE MOISTURE GETTING FURTHER SOUTH
AND PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...FALLING TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND HAVE NOT REALLY CHANGED MUCH
FROM WHAT PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT. BASICALLY LOOKING AT
AN UPPER LOW PERSISTING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KICK UP WINDS AT
TIMES BUT OVERALL BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS WILL TEND TO FAVOR AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION LESS THAN 8 KTS UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TUESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS 12-16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGH CLOUDS BECOMING
BKN-OVC AROUND 25 KFT LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA TODAY WITH SPEEDS 10-20 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING THEN
FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO 10-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
CLOUDS BECOMING BKN-OVC AROUND 25 KFT LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A FAVORABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA. INCREASED WINDS WILL FIRST BEGIN IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT
ON TUESDAY AND THEN SPREAD AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME PERIOD.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ102.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
SALMEN/HARRISON
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
000
FXUS65 KVEF 201629 AAA
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
929 AM PDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THEN LIGHT WINDS WILL RETURN
THIS EVENING UNDER A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A STORM DROPPING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY WILL BRING PERSISTENT BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FROM MID WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.UPDATE...MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THIS MORNING IS REGARDING FIRE
WEATHER ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. UPDATED DISCUSSION BELOW.
OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND IS ON ITS WAY EAST THIS MORNING. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DECREASE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE 3-5 DEGREES COOLER TODAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THE GRIDDED FORECAST
COVERS THESE TRENDS WELL SO NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
-SALMEN-
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LOCALIZED SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE RIGHT AROUND
WIND CRITERIA BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WERE STILL ABOVE 15% AS OF 9
AM. THE BIG QUESTION FOR TODAY IS WHETHER WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO
SUSTAIN CRITERIA LEVELS FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD (3 HRS) AFTER RH
LEVELS REACH 15%. CURRENTLY THINKING IS THEY WILL NOT AND PLAN ON
JUST MONITORING FOR NOW.
THE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA BEGINNING IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT ON TUESDAY AND THEN SPREADING DISTRICT WIDE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45
MPH MAY BE SEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME LEADING TO
POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. -SALMEN-
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED 10-18 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT TIME THROUGH THIS MORNING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS 6-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY
WITH HIGH CLOUDS BECOMING BKN-OVC AROUND 25 KFT TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA TODAY WITH SPEEDS 10-20 KTS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS WILL OCCUR
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FEW-SCT CU OVER EASTERN LINCOLN AND
NORTHEASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR.
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING TONIGHT. -HARRISON-
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...320 AM PDT...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOW WILL SLIDE DOWN THROUGH
SOUTHEAST NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS MORNING THEN TRACK ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
REINFORCING SHOT TO NORTH WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE THIS MORNING. GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH ARE LIKELY FROM LAUGHLIN-BULLHEAD CITY TO NEEDLES THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A RELAXING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE EASTERN NEVADA BORDER AND LIGHTER FLOW ALOFT AS A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE QUICKLY MIGRATES OVER NEVADA. THIS RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST
TUESDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP CLOSED LOW DROPPING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND PARKING OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BASE OF THE SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. THESE PERSISTENT WINDS AND DRY WARM CONDITIONS WILL
ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...OVERALL THE EXTENDED PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AS A
DEEP UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED OVER WA/OR ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. THE MODELS SHOW THE LOW TO FINALLY LIFT NORTHEAST FRIDAY...BUT
LEAVING A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS FROM
TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL HAVE
ENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
ADAIR/GORELOW
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
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