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000
FXUS65 KVEF 050453
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
952 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PROVIDE
SOUTHWEST FLOW...GRADUALLY DRIER CONDITIONS AND SOME COOLING OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THROUGH TUESDAY...ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF INYO COUNTY...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
&&

.UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO KEEP GOING IN AND AROUND DEATH VALLEY
NATIONAL PARK THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY
WEAK LOOKING ON RADAR, IT IS HARD TO STILL DISCOUNT A THUNDERSTORM
OUT THERE IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER, GIVEN TRENDS POPS WERE INCREASED
AND THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WAS EXPANDED IN THIS AREA FOR THIS
EVENING AS WELL AS INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NYE COUNTY WHERE
ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT LATER ON BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST/WEST STEERING
FLOW. THE HRRR SUGGESTS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HERE SHOULD WANE BY 08Z
SUNDAY OR SO. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO SHIFT FROM THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT THERE WILL BE A SHIFT BUT IT MAY
NOT BE UNTIL CLOSER TO 06Z-07Z SUNDAY AS SPEEDS REMAIN WEAK AND
SUPPORT ALOFT IS WEAK AT THIS TIME OF NIGHT TO ALLOW ANY HIGHER
WINDS TO MIX DOWN. WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS
AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING EXPECTED. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 10K-12K FEET. LOCAL AREAS
OF FU ALOFT FROM FIREWORK SMOKE IS POSSIBLE.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SHRA SHOULD END BY 08Z OR SO SUNDAY ACROSS INYO AND
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES. ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WE SHOULD SEE
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP AFTER 18Z MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
INYO, ESMERALDA, LINCOLN, CENTRAL NYE, AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTIES AND IN THE SPRING MTS AND SHEEP RANGE. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS AND VSBY/CIGS REDUCED TO MVFR OR LOWER ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR WINDS TO FAVOR
TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND DIRECTIONS GUSTING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KTS FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&

.PREVIOUS UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 756 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOST EAGER TO GO IN INYO COUNTY THIS
EVENING, WHICH GIVEN THE DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFFSHORE MAKES SENSE AS THIS IS HELPING TO LIFT THE AIR PARCELS IN
THE NORTHWEST CWFA. THE ONLY CHANGE THIS EVENING WAS TO INCREASE
POPS OVER NORTHERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WHERE CONVECTION HAS ALSO
MANAGED TO FIRE. THE ENVIRONMENT HERE IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AND GIVEN
THE LACK OF ANY LARGER SCALE FEATURES THIS AREA SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY
END QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS TIME.

LAS VEGAS ONLY HIT 102 TODAY WHICH SNAPPED THE STRETCH OF
CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES. AN UPDATED RER AND
GRAPHICS HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH MORE INFORMATION.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 228 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
WITH MOISTURE REMAINING UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EASTERN SIERRA AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...AS WELL AS MOHAVE COUNTY.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A MODEST PUSH OF MOISTURE
INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY...WHICH MAY
ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THERE. ON MONDAY...THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE WHICH
MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
INYO...ESMERALDA... CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES.

THE UPPER LOW OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
THE COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DRYING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LINGERING AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH DRY AND STABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERTAKING THE FORECAST AREA. BY WEDNESDAY THE
DRIER AIR SHOULD ELIMINATE THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND LATE IN
THE WEEK. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE WHICH WILL CAUSE SURFACE
TEMPS TO TREND COOLER FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...CZYZYK/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 050453
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
952 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PROVIDE
SOUTHWEST FLOW...GRADUALLY DRIER CONDITIONS AND SOME COOLING OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THROUGH TUESDAY...ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF INYO COUNTY...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
&&

.UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO KEEP GOING IN AND AROUND DEATH VALLEY
NATIONAL PARK THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY
WEAK LOOKING ON RADAR, IT IS HARD TO STILL DISCOUNT A THUNDERSTORM
OUT THERE IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER, GIVEN TRENDS POPS WERE INCREASED
AND THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WAS EXPANDED IN THIS AREA FOR THIS
EVENING AS WELL AS INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NYE COUNTY WHERE
ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT LATER ON BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST/WEST STEERING
FLOW. THE HRRR SUGGESTS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HERE SHOULD WANE BY 08Z
SUNDAY OR SO. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO SHIFT FROM THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT THERE WILL BE A SHIFT BUT IT MAY
NOT BE UNTIL CLOSER TO 06Z-07Z SUNDAY AS SPEEDS REMAIN WEAK AND
SUPPORT ALOFT IS WEAK AT THIS TIME OF NIGHT TO ALLOW ANY HIGHER
WINDS TO MIX DOWN. WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS
AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING EXPECTED. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 10K-12K FEET. LOCAL AREAS
OF FU ALOFT FROM FIREWORK SMOKE IS POSSIBLE.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SHRA SHOULD END BY 08Z OR SO SUNDAY ACROSS INYO AND
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES. ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WE SHOULD SEE
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP AFTER 18Z MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
INYO, ESMERALDA, LINCOLN, CENTRAL NYE, AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTIES AND IN THE SPRING MTS AND SHEEP RANGE. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS AND VSBY/CIGS REDUCED TO MVFR OR LOWER ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR WINDS TO FAVOR
TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND DIRECTIONS GUSTING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KTS FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&

.PREVIOUS UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 756 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOST EAGER TO GO IN INYO COUNTY THIS
EVENING, WHICH GIVEN THE DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFFSHORE MAKES SENSE AS THIS IS HELPING TO LIFT THE AIR PARCELS IN
THE NORTHWEST CWFA. THE ONLY CHANGE THIS EVENING WAS TO INCREASE
POPS OVER NORTHERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WHERE CONVECTION HAS ALSO
MANAGED TO FIRE. THE ENVIRONMENT HERE IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AND GIVEN
THE LACK OF ANY LARGER SCALE FEATURES THIS AREA SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY
END QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS TIME.

LAS VEGAS ONLY HIT 102 TODAY WHICH SNAPPED THE STRETCH OF
CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES. AN UPDATED RER AND
GRAPHICS HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH MORE INFORMATION.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 228 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
WITH MOISTURE REMAINING UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EASTERN SIERRA AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...AS WELL AS MOHAVE COUNTY.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A MODEST PUSH OF MOISTURE
INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY...WHICH MAY
ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THERE. ON MONDAY...THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE WHICH
MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
INYO...ESMERALDA... CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES.

THE UPPER LOW OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
THE COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DRYING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LINGERING AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH DRY AND STABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERTAKING THE FORECAST AREA. BY WEDNESDAY THE
DRIER AIR SHOULD ELIMINATE THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND LATE IN
THE WEEK. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE WHICH WILL CAUSE SURFACE
TEMPS TO TREND COOLER FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...CZYZYK/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 050453
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
952 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PROVIDE
SOUTHWEST FLOW...GRADUALLY DRIER CONDITIONS AND SOME COOLING OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THROUGH TUESDAY...ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF INYO COUNTY...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
&&

.UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO KEEP GOING IN AND AROUND DEATH VALLEY
NATIONAL PARK THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY
WEAK LOOKING ON RADAR, IT IS HARD TO STILL DISCOUNT A THUNDERSTORM
OUT THERE IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER, GIVEN TRENDS POPS WERE INCREASED
AND THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WAS EXPANDED IN THIS AREA FOR THIS
EVENING AS WELL AS INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NYE COUNTY WHERE
ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT LATER ON BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST/WEST STEERING
FLOW. THE HRRR SUGGESTS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HERE SHOULD WANE BY 08Z
SUNDAY OR SO. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO SHIFT FROM THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT THERE WILL BE A SHIFT BUT IT MAY
NOT BE UNTIL CLOSER TO 06Z-07Z SUNDAY AS SPEEDS REMAIN WEAK AND
SUPPORT ALOFT IS WEAK AT THIS TIME OF NIGHT TO ALLOW ANY HIGHER
WINDS TO MIX DOWN. WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS
AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING EXPECTED. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 10K-12K FEET. LOCAL AREAS
OF FU ALOFT FROM FIREWORK SMOKE IS POSSIBLE.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SHRA SHOULD END BY 08Z OR SO SUNDAY ACROSS INYO AND
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES. ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WE SHOULD SEE
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP AFTER 18Z MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
INYO, ESMERALDA, LINCOLN, CENTRAL NYE, AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTIES AND IN THE SPRING MTS AND SHEEP RANGE. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS AND VSBY/CIGS REDUCED TO MVFR OR LOWER ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR WINDS TO FAVOR
TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND DIRECTIONS GUSTING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KTS FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&

.PREVIOUS UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 756 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOST EAGER TO GO IN INYO COUNTY THIS
EVENING, WHICH GIVEN THE DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFFSHORE MAKES SENSE AS THIS IS HELPING TO LIFT THE AIR PARCELS IN
THE NORTHWEST CWFA. THE ONLY CHANGE THIS EVENING WAS TO INCREASE
POPS OVER NORTHERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WHERE CONVECTION HAS ALSO
MANAGED TO FIRE. THE ENVIRONMENT HERE IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AND GIVEN
THE LACK OF ANY LARGER SCALE FEATURES THIS AREA SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY
END QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS TIME.

LAS VEGAS ONLY HIT 102 TODAY WHICH SNAPPED THE STRETCH OF
CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES. AN UPDATED RER AND
GRAPHICS HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH MORE INFORMATION.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 228 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
WITH MOISTURE REMAINING UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EASTERN SIERRA AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...AS WELL AS MOHAVE COUNTY.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A MODEST PUSH OF MOISTURE
INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY...WHICH MAY
ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THERE. ON MONDAY...THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE WHICH
MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
INYO...ESMERALDA... CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES.

THE UPPER LOW OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
THE COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DRYING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LINGERING AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH DRY AND STABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERTAKING THE FORECAST AREA. BY WEDNESDAY THE
DRIER AIR SHOULD ELIMINATE THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND LATE IN
THE WEEK. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE WHICH WILL CAUSE SURFACE
TEMPS TO TREND COOLER FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...CZYZYK/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 050256
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
756 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PROVIDE
SOUTHWEST FLOW...GRADUALLY DRIER CONDITIONS AND SOME COOLING OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THROUGH TUESDAY...ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF INYO COUNTY...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
&&

.UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOST EAGER TO GO IN INYO COUNTY THIS
EVENING, WHICH GIVEN THE DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFFSHORE MAKES SENSE AS THIS IS HELPING TO LIFT THE AIR PARCELS IN
THE NORTHWEST CWFA. THE ONLY CHANGE THIS EVENING WAS TO INCREASE
POPS OVER NORTHERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WHERE CONVECTION HAS ALSO
MANAGED TO FIRE. THE ENVIRONMENT HERE IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AND GIVEN
THE LACK OF ANY LARGER SCALE FEATURES THIS AREA SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY
END QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS TIME.

LAS VEGAS ONLY HIT 102 TODAY WHICH SNAPPED THE STRETCH OF
CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES. AN UPDATED RER AND
GRAPHICS HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH MORE INFORMATION.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 228 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
WITH MOISTURE REMAINING UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EASTERN SIERRA AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...AS WELL AS MOHAVE COUNTY.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A MODEST PUSH OF MOISTURE
INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY...WHICH MAY
ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THERE. ON MONDAY...THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE WHICH
MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
INYO...ESMERALDA... CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES.

THE UPPER LOW OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
THE COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DRYING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LINGERING AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH DRY AND STABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERTAKING THE FORECAST AREA. BY WEDNESDAY THE
DRIER AIR SHOULD ELIMINATE THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND LATE IN
THE WEEK. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE WHICH WILL CAUSE SURFACE
TEMPS TO TREND COOLER FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES.
ISOLATED SHOWERS...SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FEW CLOUDS AROUND 10K FEET WITH SKIES REMAINING
BKN AT 12-20K. STEADIER SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 20KTS POSSIBLE.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES ALONG WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INYO COUNTY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 10KTS...BUT WEST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT WILL BE 15-20 KTS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...CZYZYK/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 050256
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
756 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PROVIDE
SOUTHWEST FLOW...GRADUALLY DRIER CONDITIONS AND SOME COOLING OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THROUGH TUESDAY...ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF INYO COUNTY...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
&&

.UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOST EAGER TO GO IN INYO COUNTY THIS
EVENING, WHICH GIVEN THE DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFFSHORE MAKES SENSE AS THIS IS HELPING TO LIFT THE AIR PARCELS IN
THE NORTHWEST CWFA. THE ONLY CHANGE THIS EVENING WAS TO INCREASE
POPS OVER NORTHERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WHERE CONVECTION HAS ALSO
MANAGED TO FIRE. THE ENVIRONMENT HERE IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AND GIVEN
THE LACK OF ANY LARGER SCALE FEATURES THIS AREA SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY
END QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS TIME.

LAS VEGAS ONLY HIT 102 TODAY WHICH SNAPPED THE STRETCH OF
CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES. AN UPDATED RER AND
GRAPHICS HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH MORE INFORMATION.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 228 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
WITH MOISTURE REMAINING UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EASTERN SIERRA AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...AS WELL AS MOHAVE COUNTY.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A MODEST PUSH OF MOISTURE
INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY...WHICH MAY
ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THERE. ON MONDAY...THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE WHICH
MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
INYO...ESMERALDA... CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES.

THE UPPER LOW OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
THE COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DRYING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LINGERING AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH DRY AND STABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERTAKING THE FORECAST AREA. BY WEDNESDAY THE
DRIER AIR SHOULD ELIMINATE THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND LATE IN
THE WEEK. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE WHICH WILL CAUSE SURFACE
TEMPS TO TREND COOLER FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES.
ISOLATED SHOWERS...SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FEW CLOUDS AROUND 10K FEET WITH SKIES REMAINING
BKN AT 12-20K. STEADIER SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 20KTS POSSIBLE.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES ALONG WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INYO COUNTY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 10KTS...BUT WEST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT WILL BE 15-20 KTS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...CZYZYK/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 042128
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
228 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PROVIDE
SOUTHWEST FLOW...GRADUALLY DRIER CONDITIONS AND SOME COOLING OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THROUGH TUESDAY...ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF INYO COUNTY...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE NORTH AND INTO NORTHERN
NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL OF THE CLOUDS AND
MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HAS STABILIZED THE
AIR MASS...LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING IN MOST PLACES AND REDUCED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF MOHAVE
COUNTY HAVE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER...THE STREAK OF 105 DEGREES IN LAS VEGAS IS LIKELY OVER AS THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE HAS ONLY REACH 100 AS OF 2 PM. WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND WITH MOISTURE
REMAINING UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EASTERN SIERRA AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...AS WELL AS MOHAVE COUNTY. ADDITIONALLY...THE
MODELS ARE INDICATING A MODEST PUSH OF MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY...WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THERE. ON MONDAY...THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE WHICH MAY AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN INYO...ESMERALDA...
CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES.

THE UPPER LOW OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
THE COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DRYING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LINGERING AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH DRY AND STABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERTAKING THE FORECAST AREA. BY WEDNESDAY THE
DRIER AIR SHOULD ELIMINATE THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND LATE IN
THE WEEK. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE WHICH WILL CAUSE SURFACE
TEMPS TO TREND COOLER FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES.
ISOLATED SHOWERS...SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FEW CLOUDS AROUND 10K FEET WITH SKIES REMAINING
BKN AT 12-20K. STEADIER SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 20KTS POSSIBLE.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES ALONG WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INYO COUNTY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 10KTS...BUT WEST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT WILL BE 15-20 KTS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

CZYZYK/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 041657
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
957 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INYO
COUNTY...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND. A
DRYING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.UPDATE...A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS MORNING...PROVIDING A SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
SHIELD AND LIGHT PRECIP. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED A TRACE OF
PRECIP...BUT A COUPLE LOCATIONS IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS HAVE
RECEIVED A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN. I HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS AND
POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY. AFTER THIS
INITIAL BATCH OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH...THE FOCUS WILL
SHIFT TO MOHAVE COUNTY...WHERE THE BEST CLEARING...INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE IS LOCATED. I LEFT TEMPERATURES ALONE AS MANY LOCATIONS
WILL SEE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
1255 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT REALLY PRODUCING MUCH RAINFALL
AND AS THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH CLARK AND SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTIES THEY ARE RUNNING INTO DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
AND WEAKENING. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE TO GENERATE MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MOHAVE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES ALONG WITH
THE SIERRA. WE DO HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING WHICH COULD HAMPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE MODELS DO INDICATE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.
THESE CLOUDS COULD ALSO HAVE AN AFFECT ON AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WITH LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INLAND DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS CONFINED TO
MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. LAS VEGAS NEEDS ONE MORE DAY OF
105+ TEMPERATURES TO BREAK THE ALL TIME CONSECUTIVE DAYS RECORD OF
21. THIS WILL BE CLOSE. CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY IS 105 AND IF WE
SEE SOME SUN THIS AFTERNOON WE SHOULD BREAK THAT RECORD. HOWEVER IF
THE CLOUDS ARE TOO THICK WE MAY FALL JUST SHORT. BEYOND TODAY THE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL A FEW DEGREES AND BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST, WITH DRY AND STABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERTAKING THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG EXTREME NORTHERN AND EASTERN
TERRAIN OF OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY, THE
DRIER AIR SHOULD ELIMINATE THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND LATE IN
THE WEEK. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND,
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE, WHICH WILL CAUSE SURFACE
TEMPS TO TREND COOLER FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH 18Z WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FEW CLOUDS AROUND 10K FEET WITH SKIES REMAINING
BKN AT 15-25K.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES ALONG WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
10KTS...BUT WEST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MOJAVE
DESERT WILL BE 15-20 KTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

CZYZYK/GORELOW/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 040756
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1255 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INYO
COUNTY...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND. A
DRYING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT REALLY PRODUCING MUCH RAINFALL
AND AS THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH CLARK AND SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTIES THEY ARE RUNNING INTO DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
AND WEAKENING. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE TO GENERATE MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MOHAVE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES ALONG WITH
THE SIERRA. WE DO HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING WHICH COULD HAMPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE MODELS DO INDICATE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.
THESE CLOUDS COULD ALSO HAVE AN AFFECT ON AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WITH LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INLAND DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS CONFINED TO
MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. LAS VEGAS NEEDS ONE MORE DAY OF
105+ TEMPERATURES TO BREAK THE ALL TIME CONSECUTIVE DAYS RECORD OF
21. THIS WILL BE CLOSE. CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY IS 105 AND IF WE
SEE SOME SUN THIS AFTERNOON WE SHOULD BREAK THAT RECORD. HOWEVER IF
THE CLOUDS ARE TOO THICK WE MAY FALL JUST SHORT. BEYOND TODAY THE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL A FEW DEGREES AND BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST, WITH DRY AND STABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERTAKING THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG EXTREME NORTHERN AND EASTERN
TERRAIN OF OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY, THE
DRIER AIR SHOULD ELIMINATE THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND LATE IN
THE WEEK. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND,
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE, WHICH WILL CAUSE SURFACE
TEMPS TO TREND COOLER FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH 16Z WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FEW CLOUDS AROUND 15K FEET WITH SKIES REMAINING
BKN AROUND 25K.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES ALONG WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
10KTS...BUT WEST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MOJAVE
DESERT WILL BE 15-20 KTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

GORELOW/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 040756
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1255 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INYO
COUNTY...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND. A
DRYING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT REALLY PRODUCING MUCH RAINFALL
AND AS THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH CLARK AND SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTIES THEY ARE RUNNING INTO DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
AND WEAKENING. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE TO GENERATE MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MOHAVE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES ALONG WITH
THE SIERRA. WE DO HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING WHICH COULD HAMPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE MODELS DO INDICATE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.
THESE CLOUDS COULD ALSO HAVE AN AFFECT ON AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WITH LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INLAND DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS CONFINED TO
MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. LAS VEGAS NEEDS ONE MORE DAY OF
105+ TEMPERATURES TO BREAK THE ALL TIME CONSECUTIVE DAYS RECORD OF
21. THIS WILL BE CLOSE. CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY IS 105 AND IF WE
SEE SOME SUN THIS AFTERNOON WE SHOULD BREAK THAT RECORD. HOWEVER IF
THE CLOUDS ARE TOO THICK WE MAY FALL JUST SHORT. BEYOND TODAY THE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL A FEW DEGREES AND BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST, WITH DRY AND STABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERTAKING THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG EXTREME NORTHERN AND EASTERN
TERRAIN OF OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY, THE
DRIER AIR SHOULD ELIMINATE THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND LATE IN
THE WEEK. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND,
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE, WHICH WILL CAUSE SURFACE
TEMPS TO TREND COOLER FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH 16Z WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FEW CLOUDS AROUND 15K FEET WITH SKIES REMAINING
BKN AROUND 25K.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES ALONG WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
10KTS...BUT WEST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MOJAVE
DESERT WILL BE 15-20 KTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

GORELOW/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 040351 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
850 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INYO
COUNTY...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF THEIR SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN TREND LOWER DURING NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE... LARGE AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO FAR
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN MINIMAL AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LOW. LAPS
DATA SHOWS FAIRLY STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY INTO INYO COUNTY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT TO
DEVELOP. MOST OF THIS HAS BEEN IN AREAS WHERE WE HAD LITTLE TO MO
POPS IN THE GRIDS SO MADE A FEW UPDATES TO POPS. WITH THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT
COULD REMAIN MUCH OF THE NIGHT WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER FAIRLY WARM
OVERNIGHT LOW. WENT AHEAD AND RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES. UPDATES OUT
SHORTLY.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
252 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY LIMITED
WITH A EASTERN HALF OF LINCOLN COUNTY...NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND
THE MOUNTAINS OF CLARK COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR HAS MADE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS TO THE EAST OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP FROM ARIZONA ON SATURDAY AND
TEMPORARILY REVERSE THE FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...PROVIDING A SHORT WINDOW ENHANCED MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LINCOLN...MOHAVE AND
THE MOUNTAINS OF CLARK COUNTY. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO NORTHERN
NEVADA AND UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN...PROVIDING DRIER AIR INTO MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL REDUCE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES A BIT MORE EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WITH AN UPPER LOW
OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG EXTREME NORTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BY WEDNESDAY...THE DRIER AIR SHOULD ELIMINATE
THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AS
THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY INLAND LATER IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MIDWEEK AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED
THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN 22 AND 23Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER MOHAVE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES ALONG
WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 10KTS...BUT WEST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MOJAVE DESERT WILL BE 15-20 KTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

CZYZYK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 040351 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
850 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INYO
COUNTY...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF THEIR SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN TREND LOWER DURING NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE... LARGE AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO FAR
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN MINIMAL AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LOW. LAPS
DATA SHOWS FAIRLY STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY INTO INYO COUNTY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT TO
DEVELOP. MOST OF THIS HAS BEEN IN AREAS WHERE WE HAD LITTLE TO MO
POPS IN THE GRIDS SO MADE A FEW UPDATES TO POPS. WITH THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT
COULD REMAIN MUCH OF THE NIGHT WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER FAIRLY WARM
OVERNIGHT LOW. WENT AHEAD AND RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES. UPDATES OUT
SHORTLY.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
252 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY LIMITED
WITH A EASTERN HALF OF LINCOLN COUNTY...NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND
THE MOUNTAINS OF CLARK COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR HAS MADE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS TO THE EAST OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP FROM ARIZONA ON SATURDAY AND
TEMPORARILY REVERSE THE FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...PROVIDING A SHORT WINDOW ENHANCED MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LINCOLN...MOHAVE AND
THE MOUNTAINS OF CLARK COUNTY. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO NORTHERN
NEVADA AND UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN...PROVIDING DRIER AIR INTO MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL REDUCE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES A BIT MORE EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WITH AN UPPER LOW
OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG EXTREME NORTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BY WEDNESDAY...THE DRIER AIR SHOULD ELIMINATE
THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AS
THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY INLAND LATER IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MIDWEEK AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED
THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN 22 AND 23Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER MOHAVE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES ALONG
WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 10KTS...BUT WEST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MOJAVE DESERT WILL BE 15-20 KTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

CZYZYK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 040351 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
850 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INYO
COUNTY...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF THEIR SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN TREND LOWER DURING NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE... LARGE AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO FAR
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN MINIMAL AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LOW. LAPS
DATA SHOWS FAIRLY STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY INTO INYO COUNTY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT TO
DEVELOP. MOST OF THIS HAS BEEN IN AREAS WHERE WE HAD LITTLE TO MO
POPS IN THE GRIDS SO MADE A FEW UPDATES TO POPS. WITH THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT
COULD REMAIN MUCH OF THE NIGHT WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER FAIRLY WARM
OVERNIGHT LOW. WENT AHEAD AND RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES. UPDATES OUT
SHORTLY.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
252 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY LIMITED
WITH A EASTERN HALF OF LINCOLN COUNTY...NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND
THE MOUNTAINS OF CLARK COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR HAS MADE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS TO THE EAST OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP FROM ARIZONA ON SATURDAY AND
TEMPORARILY REVERSE THE FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...PROVIDING A SHORT WINDOW ENHANCED MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LINCOLN...MOHAVE AND
THE MOUNTAINS OF CLARK COUNTY. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO NORTHERN
NEVADA AND UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN...PROVIDING DRIER AIR INTO MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL REDUCE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES A BIT MORE EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WITH AN UPPER LOW
OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG EXTREME NORTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BY WEDNESDAY...THE DRIER AIR SHOULD ELIMINATE
THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AS
THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY INLAND LATER IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MIDWEEK AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED
THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN 22 AND 23Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER MOHAVE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES ALONG
WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 10KTS...BUT WEST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MOJAVE DESERT WILL BE 15-20 KTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

CZYZYK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 040351 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
850 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INYO
COUNTY...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF THEIR SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN TREND LOWER DURING NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE... LARGE AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO FAR
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN MINIMAL AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LOW. LAPS
DATA SHOWS FAIRLY STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY INTO INYO COUNTY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT TO
DEVELOP. MOST OF THIS HAS BEEN IN AREAS WHERE WE HAD LITTLE TO MO
POPS IN THE GRIDS SO MADE A FEW UPDATES TO POPS. WITH THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT
COULD REMAIN MUCH OF THE NIGHT WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER FAIRLY WARM
OVERNIGHT LOW. WENT AHEAD AND RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES. UPDATES OUT
SHORTLY.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
252 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY LIMITED
WITH A EASTERN HALF OF LINCOLN COUNTY...NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND
THE MOUNTAINS OF CLARK COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR HAS MADE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS TO THE EAST OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP FROM ARIZONA ON SATURDAY AND
TEMPORARILY REVERSE THE FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...PROVIDING A SHORT WINDOW ENHANCED MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LINCOLN...MOHAVE AND
THE MOUNTAINS OF CLARK COUNTY. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO NORTHERN
NEVADA AND UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN...PROVIDING DRIER AIR INTO MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL REDUCE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES A BIT MORE EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WITH AN UPPER LOW
OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG EXTREME NORTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BY WEDNESDAY...THE DRIER AIR SHOULD ELIMINATE
THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AS
THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY INLAND LATER IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MIDWEEK AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED
THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN 22 AND 23Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER MOHAVE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES ALONG
WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 10KTS...BUT WEST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MOJAVE DESERT WILL BE 15-20 KTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

CZYZYK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 032152
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
252 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INYO
COUNTY...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF THEIR SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN TREND LOWER DURING NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY LIMITED
WITH A EASTERN HALF OF LINCOLN COUNTY...NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND
THE MOUNTAINS OF CLARK COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR HAS MADE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS TO THE EAST OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP FROM ARIZONA ON SATURDAY AND
TEMPORARILY REVERSE THE FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...PROVIDING A SHORT WINDOW ENHANCED MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LINCOLN...MOHAVE AND
THE MOUNTAINS OF CLARK COUNTY. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO NORTHERN
NEVADA AND UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN...PROVIDING DRIER AIR INTO MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL REDUCE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES A BIT MORE EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WITH AN UPPER LOW
OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG EXTREME NORTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BY WEDNESDAY...THE DRIER AIR SHOULD ELIMINATE
THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AS
THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY INLAND LATER IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MIDWEEK AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED
THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN 22 AND 23Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER MOHAVE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES ALONG
WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 10KTS...BUT WEST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MOJAVE DESERT WILL BE 15-20 KTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

CZYZYK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 032152
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
252 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INYO
COUNTY...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF THEIR SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN TREND LOWER DURING NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY LIMITED
WITH A EASTERN HALF OF LINCOLN COUNTY...NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND
THE MOUNTAINS OF CLARK COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR HAS MADE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS TO THE EAST OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP FROM ARIZONA ON SATURDAY AND
TEMPORARILY REVERSE THE FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...PROVIDING A SHORT WINDOW ENHANCED MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LINCOLN...MOHAVE AND
THE MOUNTAINS OF CLARK COUNTY. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO NORTHERN
NEVADA AND UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN...PROVIDING DRIER AIR INTO MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL REDUCE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES A BIT MORE EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WITH AN UPPER LOW
OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG EXTREME NORTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BY WEDNESDAY...THE DRIER AIR SHOULD ELIMINATE
THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AS
THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY INLAND LATER IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MIDWEEK AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED
THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN 22 AND 23Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER MOHAVE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES ALONG
WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 10KTS...BUT WEST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MOJAVE DESERT WILL BE 15-20 KTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

CZYZYK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 032152
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
252 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INYO
COUNTY...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF THEIR SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN TREND LOWER DURING NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY LIMITED
WITH A EASTERN HALF OF LINCOLN COUNTY...NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND
THE MOUNTAINS OF CLARK COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR HAS MADE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS TO THE EAST OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP FROM ARIZONA ON SATURDAY AND
TEMPORARILY REVERSE THE FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...PROVIDING A SHORT WINDOW ENHANCED MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LINCOLN...MOHAVE AND
THE MOUNTAINS OF CLARK COUNTY. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO NORTHERN
NEVADA AND UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN...PROVIDING DRIER AIR INTO MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL REDUCE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES A BIT MORE EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WITH AN UPPER LOW
OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG EXTREME NORTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BY WEDNESDAY...THE DRIER AIR SHOULD ELIMINATE
THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AS
THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY INLAND LATER IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MIDWEEK AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED
THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN 22 AND 23Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER MOHAVE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES ALONG
WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 10KTS...BUT WEST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MOJAVE DESERT WILL BE 15-20 KTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

CZYZYK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 032152
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
252 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INYO
COUNTY...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF THEIR SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN TREND LOWER DURING NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY LIMITED
WITH A EASTERN HALF OF LINCOLN COUNTY...NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND
THE MOUNTAINS OF CLARK COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR HAS MADE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS TO THE EAST OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP FROM ARIZONA ON SATURDAY AND
TEMPORARILY REVERSE THE FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...PROVIDING A SHORT WINDOW ENHANCED MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LINCOLN...MOHAVE AND
THE MOUNTAINS OF CLARK COUNTY. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO NORTHERN
NEVADA AND UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN...PROVIDING DRIER AIR INTO MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL REDUCE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES A BIT MORE EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WITH AN UPPER LOW
OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG EXTREME NORTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BY WEDNESDAY...THE DRIER AIR SHOULD ELIMINATE
THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AS
THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY INLAND LATER IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MIDWEEK AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED
THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN 22 AND 23Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER MOHAVE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES ALONG
WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 10KTS...BUT WEST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MOJAVE DESERT WILL BE 15-20 KTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

CZYZYK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 031522
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
822 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCED DECREASING EACH DAY. GREATEST THREAT
TODAY WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND CENTRAL NEVADA...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT DRYING BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY...MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHWEST.
EXPECT THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TO SEE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-40 AND IN LAKE
HAVASU CITY. I INCREASED POPS AND CLOUDS FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA SOUTH
FOR THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
300 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

FAIRLY ACTIVE NIGHT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH
DEBRIS CLOUDS SPREADING NORTHWEST TOWARD OUR AREA THIS MORNING. WE
ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOP OVER MARICOPA
COUNTY AND ITS POSSIBLE THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. IT
LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN LAS VEGAS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT
ABOVE 105 DEGREES TYING THE RECORD FOR THE LONGEST CONSECUTIVE
STREAK OF 105+ TEMPERATURES AT 21 DAYS. THE ONLY THING THAT COULD
HINDER TEMPERATURES WOULD BE THICKER DEBRIS CLOUDS...BUT AT THIS
TIME IT SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO GENERATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
GOING OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOPING OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS WILL BE TOO DRY AND
STABLE OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY TO GENERATE ANY STORMS. LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL START TO TURN THE FLOW MORE TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST. WE WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE THE START OF A DRYING TREND THAT
WILL LAST INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO AND
A LARGE UPPER LOW WELL OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL PUT
OUR AREA IN AN INCREASINGLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, ESSENTIALLY
BRINGING A HALT TO THE MONSOON PATTERN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER IT
WILL STILL TAKE A FEW DAYS FOR THIS DRY AIR TO SCOUR OUT THE
LINGERING MOISTURE. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA,
CENTRAL NEVADA, AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEK, EDGING INLAND BY LATE WEEK. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, BECOMING BREEZY. STILL
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM,
GENERALLY 103-110 DEGREES ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND LOWER
COLORADO RIVER REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MUCH OF
FRIDAY FAVORING AN EAST/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP AFTER 22-23Z UP TO 10 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER
MOHAVE COUNTY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY MOHAVE AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES ALONG WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CZYZYK
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM...PADDOCK




000
FXUS65 KVEF 031522
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
822 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCED DECREASING EACH DAY. GREATEST THREAT
TODAY WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND CENTRAL NEVADA...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT DRYING BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY...MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHWEST.
EXPECT THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TO SEE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-40 AND IN LAKE
HAVASU CITY. I INCREASED POPS AND CLOUDS FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA SOUTH
FOR THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
300 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

FAIRLY ACTIVE NIGHT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH
DEBRIS CLOUDS SPREADING NORTHWEST TOWARD OUR AREA THIS MORNING. WE
ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOP OVER MARICOPA
COUNTY AND ITS POSSIBLE THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. IT
LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN LAS VEGAS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT
ABOVE 105 DEGREES TYING THE RECORD FOR THE LONGEST CONSECUTIVE
STREAK OF 105+ TEMPERATURES AT 21 DAYS. THE ONLY THING THAT COULD
HINDER TEMPERATURES WOULD BE THICKER DEBRIS CLOUDS...BUT AT THIS
TIME IT SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO GENERATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
GOING OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOPING OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS WILL BE TOO DRY AND
STABLE OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY TO GENERATE ANY STORMS. LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL START TO TURN THE FLOW MORE TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST. WE WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE THE START OF A DRYING TREND THAT
WILL LAST INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO AND
A LARGE UPPER LOW WELL OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL PUT
OUR AREA IN AN INCREASINGLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, ESSENTIALLY
BRINGING A HALT TO THE MONSOON PATTERN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER IT
WILL STILL TAKE A FEW DAYS FOR THIS DRY AIR TO SCOUR OUT THE
LINGERING MOISTURE. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA,
CENTRAL NEVADA, AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEK, EDGING INLAND BY LATE WEEK. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, BECOMING BREEZY. STILL
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM,
GENERALLY 103-110 DEGREES ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND LOWER
COLORADO RIVER REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MUCH OF
FRIDAY FAVORING AN EAST/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP AFTER 22-23Z UP TO 10 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER
MOHAVE COUNTY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY MOHAVE AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES ALONG WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CZYZYK
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM...PADDOCK





000
FXUS65 KVEF 031001
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
300 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCED DECREASING EACH DAY. GREATEST THREAT
TODAY WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND CENTRAL NEVADA...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT DRYING BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

FAIRLY ACTIVE NIGHT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH
DEBRIS CLOUDS SPREADING NORTHWEST TOWARD OUR AREA THIS MORNING. WE
ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOP OVER MARICOPA
COUNTY AND ITS POSSIBLE THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. IT
LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN LAS VEGAS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT
ABOVE 105 DEGREES TYING THE RECORD FOR THE LONGEST CONSECUTIVE
STREAK OF 105+ TEMPERATURES AT 21 DAYS. THE ONLY THING THAT COULD
HINDER TEMPERATURES WOULD BE THICKER DEBRIS CLOUDS...BUT AT THIS
TIME IT SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO GENERATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
GOING OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOPING OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS WILL BE TOO DRY AND
STABLE OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY TO GENERATE ANY STORMS. LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL START TO TURN THE FLOW MORE TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST. WE WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE THE START OF A DRYING TREND THAT
WILL LAST INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO AND
A LARGE UPPER LOW WELL OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL PUT
OUR AREA IN AN INCREASINGLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, ESSENTIALLY
BRINGING A HALT TO THE MONSOON PATTERN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER IT
WILL STILL TAKE A FEW DAYS FOR THIS DRY AIR TO SCOUR OUT THE
LINGERING MOISTURE. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA,
CENTRAL NEVADA, AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEK, EDGING INLAND BY LATE WEEK. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, BECOMING BREEZY. STILL
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM,
GENERALLY 103-110 DEGREES ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND LOWER
COLORADO RIVER REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MUCH OF
FRIDAY FAVORING AN EAST/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP AFTER 22-23Z UP TO 10 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER
MOHAVE COUNTY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MAINLY MOHAVE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES ALONG WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN NEVADA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM...PADDOCK





000
FXUS65 KVEF 031001
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
300 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCED DECREASING EACH DAY. GREATEST THREAT
TODAY WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND CENTRAL NEVADA...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT DRYING BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

FAIRLY ACTIVE NIGHT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH
DEBRIS CLOUDS SPREADING NORTHWEST TOWARD OUR AREA THIS MORNING. WE
ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOP OVER MARICOPA
COUNTY AND ITS POSSIBLE THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. IT
LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN LAS VEGAS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT
ABOVE 105 DEGREES TYING THE RECORD FOR THE LONGEST CONSECUTIVE
STREAK OF 105+ TEMPERATURES AT 21 DAYS. THE ONLY THING THAT COULD
HINDER TEMPERATURES WOULD BE THICKER DEBRIS CLOUDS...BUT AT THIS
TIME IT SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO GENERATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
GOING OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOPING OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS WILL BE TOO DRY AND
STABLE OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY TO GENERATE ANY STORMS. LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL START TO TURN THE FLOW MORE TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST. WE WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE THE START OF A DRYING TREND THAT
WILL LAST INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO AND
A LARGE UPPER LOW WELL OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL PUT
OUR AREA IN AN INCREASINGLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, ESSENTIALLY
BRINGING A HALT TO THE MONSOON PATTERN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER IT
WILL STILL TAKE A FEW DAYS FOR THIS DRY AIR TO SCOUR OUT THE
LINGERING MOISTURE. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA,
CENTRAL NEVADA, AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEK, EDGING INLAND BY LATE WEEK. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, BECOMING BREEZY. STILL
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM,
GENERALLY 103-110 DEGREES ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND LOWER
COLORADO RIVER REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MUCH OF
FRIDAY FAVORING AN EAST/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP AFTER 22-23Z UP TO 10 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER
MOHAVE COUNTY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MAINLY MOHAVE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES ALONG WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN NEVADA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM...PADDOCK




000
FXUS65 KVEF 030501 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1000 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. A VERY
GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY
WEEKEND LIMITING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO MAINLY MOHAVE COUNTY AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF LAS VEGAS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DRYING BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...MUCH QUIETER EVENING THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH JUST A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS REMAINING IN LINCOLN COUNTY. WENT AHEAD AND REDUCE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. REMAINDER OF THE GRIDS
LOOK GOOD AND NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES NECESSARY.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MUCH OF
FRIDAY FAVORING AN EAST/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP AFTER 22-23Z UP TO 10 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY
LINCOLN COUNTY WITH ONLY A FEW-SCT CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MAINLY NORTH OF LAS VEGAS. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
319 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED BUT IN THE RIGHT LOCATIONS. A DRY PUNCH
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER WAVE
WAS WORKING THROUGH NORTHWEST ARIZONA INTO CLARK COUNTY AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD AID CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE STORMS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY ISOLATED THIS EVENING. MODELS INDICATE THAT WAVE SHIFTING
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CONVECTION DYING BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED GENERALLY OVER UTAH FRIDAY WITH A
NEARLY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. OVERALL MODELS INDICATE A DRIER
AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR MASS WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY...THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS AND SIERRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE IS INDICATED MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FEATURE BUT IT SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING. THE
UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT A BIT FARTHER EAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING. MODELS TREND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
STABLE SATURDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LIMITED TO MAINLY THE
SIERRA AND SPRING MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY
SUNDAY WITH THE FLOW OVER THE CWA BECOMING ALMOST SOUTHWESTERLY. IN
THEORY THIS WOULD LEAD TO FURTHER DRYING BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
DEVELOPING SOME SORT OF WEAK WAVE AND PUSHING UP SOME MORE MOISTURE
INTO MOHAVE COUNTY SO I INCREASED THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE THERE.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...MAYBE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

IT APPEARS THE FIRST BREAK IN THE MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN INCREASINGLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADS INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
THIS DRY AND STABLE FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST THEN PARKS OFFSHORE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. I WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...CENTRAL NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA ZONES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT THAT IS STILL QUITE HOT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 105-110 DEGREES ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO
RIVER REGION.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GORELOW
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...ADAIR




000
FXUS65 KVEF 030501 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1000 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. A VERY
GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY
WEEKEND LIMITING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO MAINLY MOHAVE COUNTY AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF LAS VEGAS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DRYING BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...MUCH QUIETER EVENING THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH JUST A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS REMAINING IN LINCOLN COUNTY. WENT AHEAD AND REDUCE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. REMAINDER OF THE GRIDS
LOOK GOOD AND NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES NECESSARY.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MUCH OF
FRIDAY FAVORING AN EAST/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP AFTER 22-23Z UP TO 10 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY
LINCOLN COUNTY WITH ONLY A FEW-SCT CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MAINLY NORTH OF LAS VEGAS. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
319 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED BUT IN THE RIGHT LOCATIONS. A DRY PUNCH
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER WAVE
WAS WORKING THROUGH NORTHWEST ARIZONA INTO CLARK COUNTY AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD AID CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE STORMS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY ISOLATED THIS EVENING. MODELS INDICATE THAT WAVE SHIFTING
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CONVECTION DYING BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED GENERALLY OVER UTAH FRIDAY WITH A
NEARLY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. OVERALL MODELS INDICATE A DRIER
AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR MASS WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY...THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS AND SIERRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE IS INDICATED MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FEATURE BUT IT SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING. THE
UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT A BIT FARTHER EAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING. MODELS TREND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
STABLE SATURDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LIMITED TO MAINLY THE
SIERRA AND SPRING MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY
SUNDAY WITH THE FLOW OVER THE CWA BECOMING ALMOST SOUTHWESTERLY. IN
THEORY THIS WOULD LEAD TO FURTHER DRYING BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
DEVELOPING SOME SORT OF WEAK WAVE AND PUSHING UP SOME MORE MOISTURE
INTO MOHAVE COUNTY SO I INCREASED THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE THERE.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...MAYBE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

IT APPEARS THE FIRST BREAK IN THE MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN INCREASINGLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADS INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
THIS DRY AND STABLE FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST THEN PARKS OFFSHORE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. I WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...CENTRAL NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA ZONES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT THAT IS STILL QUITE HOT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 105-110 DEGREES ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO
RIVER REGION.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GORELOW
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...ADAIR





000
FXUS65 KVEF 030501 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1000 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. A VERY
GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY
WEEKEND LIMITING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO MAINLY MOHAVE COUNTY AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF LAS VEGAS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DRYING BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...MUCH QUIETER EVENING THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH JUST A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS REMAINING IN LINCOLN COUNTY. WENT AHEAD AND REDUCE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. REMAINDER OF THE GRIDS
LOOK GOOD AND NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES NECESSARY.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MUCH OF
FRIDAY FAVORING AN EAST/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP AFTER 22-23Z UP TO 10 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY
LINCOLN COUNTY WITH ONLY A FEW-SCT CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MAINLY NORTH OF LAS VEGAS. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
319 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED BUT IN THE RIGHT LOCATIONS. A DRY PUNCH
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER WAVE
WAS WORKING THROUGH NORTHWEST ARIZONA INTO CLARK COUNTY AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD AID CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE STORMS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY ISOLATED THIS EVENING. MODELS INDICATE THAT WAVE SHIFTING
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CONVECTION DYING BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED GENERALLY OVER UTAH FRIDAY WITH A
NEARLY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. OVERALL MODELS INDICATE A DRIER
AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR MASS WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY...THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS AND SIERRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE IS INDICATED MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FEATURE BUT IT SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING. THE
UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT A BIT FARTHER EAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING. MODELS TREND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
STABLE SATURDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LIMITED TO MAINLY THE
SIERRA AND SPRING MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY
SUNDAY WITH THE FLOW OVER THE CWA BECOMING ALMOST SOUTHWESTERLY. IN
THEORY THIS WOULD LEAD TO FURTHER DRYING BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
DEVELOPING SOME SORT OF WEAK WAVE AND PUSHING UP SOME MORE MOISTURE
INTO MOHAVE COUNTY SO I INCREASED THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE THERE.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...MAYBE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

IT APPEARS THE FIRST BREAK IN THE MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN INCREASINGLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADS INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
THIS DRY AND STABLE FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST THEN PARKS OFFSHORE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. I WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...CENTRAL NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA ZONES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT THAT IS STILL QUITE HOT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 105-110 DEGREES ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO
RIVER REGION.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GORELOW
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...ADAIR




000
FXUS65 KVEF 030501 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1000 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. A VERY
GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY
WEEKEND LIMITING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO MAINLY MOHAVE COUNTY AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF LAS VEGAS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DRYING BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...MUCH QUIETER EVENING THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH JUST A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS REMAINING IN LINCOLN COUNTY. WENT AHEAD AND REDUCE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. REMAINDER OF THE GRIDS
LOOK GOOD AND NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES NECESSARY.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MUCH OF
FRIDAY FAVORING AN EAST/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP AFTER 22-23Z UP TO 10 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY
LINCOLN COUNTY WITH ONLY A FEW-SCT CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MAINLY NORTH OF LAS VEGAS. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
319 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED BUT IN THE RIGHT LOCATIONS. A DRY PUNCH
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER WAVE
WAS WORKING THROUGH NORTHWEST ARIZONA INTO CLARK COUNTY AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD AID CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE STORMS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY ISOLATED THIS EVENING. MODELS INDICATE THAT WAVE SHIFTING
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CONVECTION DYING BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED GENERALLY OVER UTAH FRIDAY WITH A
NEARLY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. OVERALL MODELS INDICATE A DRIER
AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR MASS WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY...THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS AND SIERRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE IS INDICATED MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FEATURE BUT IT SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING. THE
UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT A BIT FARTHER EAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING. MODELS TREND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
STABLE SATURDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LIMITED TO MAINLY THE
SIERRA AND SPRING MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY
SUNDAY WITH THE FLOW OVER THE CWA BECOMING ALMOST SOUTHWESTERLY. IN
THEORY THIS WOULD LEAD TO FURTHER DRYING BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
DEVELOPING SOME SORT OF WEAK WAVE AND PUSHING UP SOME MORE MOISTURE
INTO MOHAVE COUNTY SO I INCREASED THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE THERE.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...MAYBE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

IT APPEARS THE FIRST BREAK IN THE MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN INCREASINGLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADS INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
THIS DRY AND STABLE FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST THEN PARKS OFFSHORE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. I WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...CENTRAL NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA ZONES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT THAT IS STILL QUITE HOT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 105-110 DEGREES ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO
RIVER REGION.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GORELOW
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...ADAIR





000
FXUS65 KVEF 022219
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
319 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. A VERY
GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY
WEEKEND LIMITING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO MAINLY MOHAVE COUNTY AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF LAS VEGAS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DRYING BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED BUT IN THE RIGHT LOCATIONS. A DRY PUNCH
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER WAVE
WAS WORKING THROUGH NORTHWEST ARIZONA INTO CLARK COUNTY AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD AID CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE STORMS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY ISOLATED THIS EVENING. MODELS INDICATE THAT WAVE SHIFTING
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CONVECTION DYING BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED GENERALLY OVER UTAH FRIDAY WITH A
NEARLY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. OVERALL MODELS INDICATE A DRIER
AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR MASS WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY...THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS AND SIERRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE IS INDICATED MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FEATURE BUT IT SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING. THE
UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT A BIT FARTHER EAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING. MODELS TREND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
STABLE SATURDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LIMITED TO MAINLY THE
SIERRA AND SPRING MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY
SUNDAY WITH THE FLOW OVER THE CWA BECOMING ALMOST SOUTHWESTERLY. IN
THEORY THIS WOULD LEAD TO FURTHER DRYING BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
DEVELOPING SOME SORT OF WEAK WAVE AND PUSHING UP SOME MORE MOISTURE
INTO MOHAVE COUNTY SO I INCREASED THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE THERE.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...MAYBE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

IT APPEARS THE FIRST BREAK IN THE MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN INCREASINGLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADS INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
THIS DRY AND STABLE FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST THEN PARKS OFFSHORE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. I WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...CENTRAL NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA ZONES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT THAT IS STILL QUITE HOT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 105-110 DEGREES ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO
RIVER REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS WILL TRANSITION FROM LIGHT
EAST/SOUTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS
BETWEEN ABOUT 00Z AND 01Z THIS EVENING...CONTINUING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MUCH OF
FRIDAY FAVORING AN EAST/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP AFTER 22-23Z UP TO 10 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING
GENERALLY NORTH OF LAS VEGAS WITH VERY ISOLATED STORMS SOUTH. BASES
AS LOW AS 5-7 KFT IN STORMS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MAINLY NORTH OF LAS VEGAS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW...WINDS
SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES. &&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...ADAIR





000
FXUS65 KVEF 022219
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
319 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. A VERY
GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY
WEEKEND LIMITING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO MAINLY MOHAVE COUNTY AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF LAS VEGAS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DRYING BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED BUT IN THE RIGHT LOCATIONS. A DRY PUNCH
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER WAVE
WAS WORKING THROUGH NORTHWEST ARIZONA INTO CLARK COUNTY AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD AID CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE STORMS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY ISOLATED THIS EVENING. MODELS INDICATE THAT WAVE SHIFTING
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CONVECTION DYING BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED GENERALLY OVER UTAH FRIDAY WITH A
NEARLY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. OVERALL MODELS INDICATE A DRIER
AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR MASS WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY...THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS AND SIERRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE IS INDICATED MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FEATURE BUT IT SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING. THE
UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT A BIT FARTHER EAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING. MODELS TREND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
STABLE SATURDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LIMITED TO MAINLY THE
SIERRA AND SPRING MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY
SUNDAY WITH THE FLOW OVER THE CWA BECOMING ALMOST SOUTHWESTERLY. IN
THEORY THIS WOULD LEAD TO FURTHER DRYING BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
DEVELOPING SOME SORT OF WEAK WAVE AND PUSHING UP SOME MORE MOISTURE
INTO MOHAVE COUNTY SO I INCREASED THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE THERE.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...MAYBE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

IT APPEARS THE FIRST BREAK IN THE MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN INCREASINGLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADS INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
THIS DRY AND STABLE FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST THEN PARKS OFFSHORE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. I WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...CENTRAL NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA ZONES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT THAT IS STILL QUITE HOT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 105-110 DEGREES ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO
RIVER REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS WILL TRANSITION FROM LIGHT
EAST/SOUTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS
BETWEEN ABOUT 00Z AND 01Z THIS EVENING...CONTINUING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MUCH OF
FRIDAY FAVORING AN EAST/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP AFTER 22-23Z UP TO 10 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING
GENERALLY NORTH OF LAS VEGAS WITH VERY ISOLATED STORMS SOUTH. BASES
AS LOW AS 5-7 KFT IN STORMS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MAINLY NORTH OF LAS VEGAS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW...WINDS
SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES. &&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...ADAIR




000
FXUS65 KVEF 021656
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
956 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT ANYTIME ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND PRIMARILY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER EACH NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT DROP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE MAY ALSO BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THEN.
&&

.UPDATE...ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE WHICH WAS MOVING NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE CWA DECREASED EARLY THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE SOMEWHAT
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE WAVE SO CONVECTION IS
NOT EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ELSEWHERE IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AND OVER THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS ACCORDING TO MUCH OF THE 12Z MODEL DATA THAT HAS COME IN.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST AND NO UPDATES ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. -HARRISON-

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SHRA/TSRA WILL END AFTER 15Z THIS
MORNING. THINGS SHOULD STAY DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AROUND THE
VALLEY. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
SCT CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET. WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR DIURNAL
DIRECTIONAL TRENDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS EXPECTED IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS
6K-10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. &&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
306 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS CONTINUES TO REMAIN A TOUGH MONSOON PATTERN TO NAIL DOWN MORE
THAN A FEW HOURS OUT. THAT SAID, WE ARE LIKELY GOING TO START THINGS
OFF ON THE INTERESTING SIDE TODAY BASED ON HOW THE RADAR HAS FILLED
BACK IN OVER THE LAST HOUR. A BROAD DISTURBANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHWEST ACROSS SOCAL INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WHICH COMBINED WITH A SOUTHEAST TO WEST
ORIENTED JET STREAM RUNNING AROUND 60 KTS+ AT 250 MB OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WAS HELPING TO SERVE AS A LIFTING MECHANISM ON A
LARGER SCALE FOR CONVECTION THIS MORNING. WE REALLY NEVER SAW
EVERYTHING SHUT DOWN YESTERDAY EVENING AND THUS THE ACTIVITY
PRESENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WAS FED OFF WHAT WAS GENERATED ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARIZONA LATER YESTERDAY EVENING. THE HRRR DID A GOOD JOB
LAST EVENING LATCHING ONTO THIS AND THUS NOW THAT WE ARE SEEING IT
BECOME REALITY, I WENT AHEAD AND SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED POPS FOR
THE REST OF THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CLARK COUNTY, INCLUDING THE
LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING (WHICH HAS BEEN
QUITE IMPRESSIVE TO VIEW OUT THE WINDOW WITH THE SIZE OF THE CG
STRIKES), DOWNPOURS POTENTIALLY CAUSING MINOR FLOODING AND WIND
GUSTS. ONCE WE MOVE THROUGH THE MORNING, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WORK
WEST TOWARD SOUTHERN NYE AND SOUTHERN INYO COUNTIES. AS A RESULT,
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWFA SHOULD STAY RATHER CLOUDY TODAY AND
HIGHS WERE LOWERED OVER THAT AREA A FEW DEGREES. ACROSS LAS VEGAS,
ONCE WE SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END BY LATER THIS MORNING OR
AT THE LATEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL PROBABLY BE WORKED OVER
ENOUGH THAT THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WE MAY
BE A BIT TOO MOIST AND CLEAR SLOWLY ENOUGH THAT WE STILL MAY BE TOO
WARM ON THE HIGH TEMP FOR TODAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT TODAY REMAINS SOUTHEAST AND AS A RESULT, POPS WERE
KEPT DOWN ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY, WHICH MAY SEE SOME ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE PLATEAU REGION. FURTHER
SOUTHWEST IN MOHAVE COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY IT LOOKS TOO STABLE TODAY TO SEE MUCH AND POPS
WERE TRIMMED BACK. WITH THE FLOW STAYING SOUTHEAST ALOFT, THERE IS
LESS OF A RISK THIS EVENING FOR MUCH ACTIVITY TO WORK INTO THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY OR COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BELOW HOOVER DAM. THE MOST
ACTIVE AREAS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
LAS VEGAS.

OVERALL WE REMAIN WITH A ROAD RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA THAT SITS
AROUND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WE LOOK TO SEE AN AREA OF NVA
ENTER MUCH OF THE CWFA ON FRIDAY WHICH WOULD FAVOR A LACK OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FOR NOW, POPS WERE LEFT ALONE BUT MAY NEED TO
BE LOWERED. THE BEST ODDS LOOK TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
WHERE INSTABILITY AND CAPE IS STILL NOTED AND ACTIVITY POPS UP OVER
THE TERRAIN DRIVEN BY HEATING.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OFF THE BAJA IS
SLATED TO MOVE NORTH TO OFF SOCAL ON FRIDAY AND THEN OFF THE COAST
OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIKELY HELP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND THUS
WE SHOW AN INCREASE IN POPS HERE. ELSEWHERE IT LOOKS STABLE ENOUGH
THAT VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY MAY GET GOING WITH WHATEVER THAT CAN BE
DRIVEN BY HEATING AND OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. THUS FOR MOST FOLKS
ON THE 4TH IT SHOULD BE DRY BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR TEMPS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE HUMIDITY (SURFACE DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 40
AND 50 DEGREES).

BY SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO GO MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WHICH
WILL RESULT IN THINGS STARTING TO DRY OUT MORE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CWFA. POPS WERE KEPT MAINLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL AS THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MOHAVE
COUNTY.

I DID LOWER LOW TEMPS A TOUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS AS WE DRY
OUT AND SEE HEIGHTS LOWER A LITTLE AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

IT APPEARS THE FIRST BREAK IN THE MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN INCREASINGLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADS INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
THIS DRY AND STABLE FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST THEN PARKS OFFSHORE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. I WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...CENTRAL NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA ZONES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT THAT IS STILL QUITE HOT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 105-110 DEGREES ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO
RIVER REGION.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES. &&

$$

UPDATE...ADAIR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...ADAIR




000
FXUS65 KVEF 021656
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
956 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT ANYTIME ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND PRIMARILY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER EACH NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT DROP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE MAY ALSO BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THEN.
&&

.UPDATE...ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE WHICH WAS MOVING NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE CWA DECREASED EARLY THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE SOMEWHAT
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE WAVE SO CONVECTION IS
NOT EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ELSEWHERE IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AND OVER THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS ACCORDING TO MUCH OF THE 12Z MODEL DATA THAT HAS COME IN.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST AND NO UPDATES ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. -HARRISON-

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SHRA/TSRA WILL END AFTER 15Z THIS
MORNING. THINGS SHOULD STAY DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AROUND THE
VALLEY. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
SCT CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET. WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR DIURNAL
DIRECTIONAL TRENDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS EXPECTED IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS
6K-10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. &&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
306 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS CONTINUES TO REMAIN A TOUGH MONSOON PATTERN TO NAIL DOWN MORE
THAN A FEW HOURS OUT. THAT SAID, WE ARE LIKELY GOING TO START THINGS
OFF ON THE INTERESTING SIDE TODAY BASED ON HOW THE RADAR HAS FILLED
BACK IN OVER THE LAST HOUR. A BROAD DISTURBANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHWEST ACROSS SOCAL INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WHICH COMBINED WITH A SOUTHEAST TO WEST
ORIENTED JET STREAM RUNNING AROUND 60 KTS+ AT 250 MB OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WAS HELPING TO SERVE AS A LIFTING MECHANISM ON A
LARGER SCALE FOR CONVECTION THIS MORNING. WE REALLY NEVER SAW
EVERYTHING SHUT DOWN YESTERDAY EVENING AND THUS THE ACTIVITY
PRESENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WAS FED OFF WHAT WAS GENERATED ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARIZONA LATER YESTERDAY EVENING. THE HRRR DID A GOOD JOB
LAST EVENING LATCHING ONTO THIS AND THUS NOW THAT WE ARE SEEING IT
BECOME REALITY, I WENT AHEAD AND SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED POPS FOR
THE REST OF THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CLARK COUNTY, INCLUDING THE
LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING (WHICH HAS BEEN
QUITE IMPRESSIVE TO VIEW OUT THE WINDOW WITH THE SIZE OF THE CG
STRIKES), DOWNPOURS POTENTIALLY CAUSING MINOR FLOODING AND WIND
GUSTS. ONCE WE MOVE THROUGH THE MORNING, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WORK
WEST TOWARD SOUTHERN NYE AND SOUTHERN INYO COUNTIES. AS A RESULT,
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWFA SHOULD STAY RATHER CLOUDY TODAY AND
HIGHS WERE LOWERED OVER THAT AREA A FEW DEGREES. ACROSS LAS VEGAS,
ONCE WE SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END BY LATER THIS MORNING OR
AT THE LATEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL PROBABLY BE WORKED OVER
ENOUGH THAT THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WE MAY
BE A BIT TOO MOIST AND CLEAR SLOWLY ENOUGH THAT WE STILL MAY BE TOO
WARM ON THE HIGH TEMP FOR TODAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT TODAY REMAINS SOUTHEAST AND AS A RESULT, POPS WERE
KEPT DOWN ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY, WHICH MAY SEE SOME ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE PLATEAU REGION. FURTHER
SOUTHWEST IN MOHAVE COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY IT LOOKS TOO STABLE TODAY TO SEE MUCH AND POPS
WERE TRIMMED BACK. WITH THE FLOW STAYING SOUTHEAST ALOFT, THERE IS
LESS OF A RISK THIS EVENING FOR MUCH ACTIVITY TO WORK INTO THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY OR COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BELOW HOOVER DAM. THE MOST
ACTIVE AREAS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
LAS VEGAS.

OVERALL WE REMAIN WITH A ROAD RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA THAT SITS
AROUND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WE LOOK TO SEE AN AREA OF NVA
ENTER MUCH OF THE CWFA ON FRIDAY WHICH WOULD FAVOR A LACK OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FOR NOW, POPS WERE LEFT ALONE BUT MAY NEED TO
BE LOWERED. THE BEST ODDS LOOK TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
WHERE INSTABILITY AND CAPE IS STILL NOTED AND ACTIVITY POPS UP OVER
THE TERRAIN DRIVEN BY HEATING.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OFF THE BAJA IS
SLATED TO MOVE NORTH TO OFF SOCAL ON FRIDAY AND THEN OFF THE COAST
OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIKELY HELP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND THUS
WE SHOW AN INCREASE IN POPS HERE. ELSEWHERE IT LOOKS STABLE ENOUGH
THAT VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY MAY GET GOING WITH WHATEVER THAT CAN BE
DRIVEN BY HEATING AND OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. THUS FOR MOST FOLKS
ON THE 4TH IT SHOULD BE DRY BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR TEMPS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE HUMIDITY (SURFACE DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 40
AND 50 DEGREES).

BY SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO GO MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WHICH
WILL RESULT IN THINGS STARTING TO DRY OUT MORE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CWFA. POPS WERE KEPT MAINLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL AS THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MOHAVE
COUNTY.

I DID LOWER LOW TEMPS A TOUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS AS WE DRY
OUT AND SEE HEIGHTS LOWER A LITTLE AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

IT APPEARS THE FIRST BREAK IN THE MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN INCREASINGLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADS INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
THIS DRY AND STABLE FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST THEN PARKS OFFSHORE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. I WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...CENTRAL NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA ZONES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT THAT IS STILL QUITE HOT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 105-110 DEGREES ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO
RIVER REGION.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES. &&

$$

UPDATE...ADAIR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...ADAIR





000
FXUS65 KVEF 021656
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
956 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT ANYTIME ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND PRIMARILY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER EACH NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT DROP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE MAY ALSO BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THEN.
&&

.UPDATE...ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE WHICH WAS MOVING NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE CWA DECREASED EARLY THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE SOMEWHAT
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE WAVE SO CONVECTION IS
NOT EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ELSEWHERE IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AND OVER THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS ACCORDING TO MUCH OF THE 12Z MODEL DATA THAT HAS COME IN.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST AND NO UPDATES ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. -HARRISON-

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SHRA/TSRA WILL END AFTER 15Z THIS
MORNING. THINGS SHOULD STAY DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AROUND THE
VALLEY. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
SCT CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET. WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR DIURNAL
DIRECTIONAL TRENDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS EXPECTED IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS
6K-10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. &&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
306 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS CONTINUES TO REMAIN A TOUGH MONSOON PATTERN TO NAIL DOWN MORE
THAN A FEW HOURS OUT. THAT SAID, WE ARE LIKELY GOING TO START THINGS
OFF ON THE INTERESTING SIDE TODAY BASED ON HOW THE RADAR HAS FILLED
BACK IN OVER THE LAST HOUR. A BROAD DISTURBANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHWEST ACROSS SOCAL INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WHICH COMBINED WITH A SOUTHEAST TO WEST
ORIENTED JET STREAM RUNNING AROUND 60 KTS+ AT 250 MB OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WAS HELPING TO SERVE AS A LIFTING MECHANISM ON A
LARGER SCALE FOR CONVECTION THIS MORNING. WE REALLY NEVER SAW
EVERYTHING SHUT DOWN YESTERDAY EVENING AND THUS THE ACTIVITY
PRESENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WAS FED OFF WHAT WAS GENERATED ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARIZONA LATER YESTERDAY EVENING. THE HRRR DID A GOOD JOB
LAST EVENING LATCHING ONTO THIS AND THUS NOW THAT WE ARE SEEING IT
BECOME REALITY, I WENT AHEAD AND SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED POPS FOR
THE REST OF THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CLARK COUNTY, INCLUDING THE
LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING (WHICH HAS BEEN
QUITE IMPRESSIVE TO VIEW OUT THE WINDOW WITH THE SIZE OF THE CG
STRIKES), DOWNPOURS POTENTIALLY CAUSING MINOR FLOODING AND WIND
GUSTS. ONCE WE MOVE THROUGH THE MORNING, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WORK
WEST TOWARD SOUTHERN NYE AND SOUTHERN INYO COUNTIES. AS A RESULT,
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWFA SHOULD STAY RATHER CLOUDY TODAY AND
HIGHS WERE LOWERED OVER THAT AREA A FEW DEGREES. ACROSS LAS VEGAS,
ONCE WE SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END BY LATER THIS MORNING OR
AT THE LATEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL PROBABLY BE WORKED OVER
ENOUGH THAT THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WE MAY
BE A BIT TOO MOIST AND CLEAR SLOWLY ENOUGH THAT WE STILL MAY BE TOO
WARM ON THE HIGH TEMP FOR TODAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT TODAY REMAINS SOUTHEAST AND AS A RESULT, POPS WERE
KEPT DOWN ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY, WHICH MAY SEE SOME ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE PLATEAU REGION. FURTHER
SOUTHWEST IN MOHAVE COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY IT LOOKS TOO STABLE TODAY TO SEE MUCH AND POPS
WERE TRIMMED BACK. WITH THE FLOW STAYING SOUTHEAST ALOFT, THERE IS
LESS OF A RISK THIS EVENING FOR MUCH ACTIVITY TO WORK INTO THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY OR COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BELOW HOOVER DAM. THE MOST
ACTIVE AREAS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
LAS VEGAS.

OVERALL WE REMAIN WITH A ROAD RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA THAT SITS
AROUND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WE LOOK TO SEE AN AREA OF NVA
ENTER MUCH OF THE CWFA ON FRIDAY WHICH WOULD FAVOR A LACK OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FOR NOW, POPS WERE LEFT ALONE BUT MAY NEED TO
BE LOWERED. THE BEST ODDS LOOK TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
WHERE INSTABILITY AND CAPE IS STILL NOTED AND ACTIVITY POPS UP OVER
THE TERRAIN DRIVEN BY HEATING.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OFF THE BAJA IS
SLATED TO MOVE NORTH TO OFF SOCAL ON FRIDAY AND THEN OFF THE COAST
OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIKELY HELP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND THUS
WE SHOW AN INCREASE IN POPS HERE. ELSEWHERE IT LOOKS STABLE ENOUGH
THAT VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY MAY GET GOING WITH WHATEVER THAT CAN BE
DRIVEN BY HEATING AND OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. THUS FOR MOST FOLKS
ON THE 4TH IT SHOULD BE DRY BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR TEMPS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE HUMIDITY (SURFACE DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 40
AND 50 DEGREES).

BY SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO GO MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WHICH
WILL RESULT IN THINGS STARTING TO DRY OUT MORE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CWFA. POPS WERE KEPT MAINLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL AS THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MOHAVE
COUNTY.

I DID LOWER LOW TEMPS A TOUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS AS WE DRY
OUT AND SEE HEIGHTS LOWER A LITTLE AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

IT APPEARS THE FIRST BREAK IN THE MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN INCREASINGLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADS INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
THIS DRY AND STABLE FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST THEN PARKS OFFSHORE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. I WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...CENTRAL NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA ZONES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT THAT IS STILL QUITE HOT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 105-110 DEGREES ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO
RIVER REGION.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES. &&

$$

UPDATE...ADAIR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...ADAIR





000
FXUS65 KVEF 021347
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
645 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT ANYTIME ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND PRIMARILY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER EACH NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT DROP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE MAY ALSO BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THEN.
&&

.UPDATE...THE POP/WX GRIDS THROUGH 18Z WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO
BRING IN LINE WITH THE LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS...REDUCING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY AND
EXPANDING A LITTLE MORE FROM NORTHWEST CLARK COUNTY TO ESMERALDA AND
CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SHRA/TSRA WILL END AFTER 15Z THIS
MORNING. THINGS SHOULD STAY DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AROUND THE
VALLEY. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
SCT CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET. WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR DIURNAL
DIRECTIONAL TRENDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS EXPECTED IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS
6K-10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. &&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
306 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS CONTINUES TO REMAIN A TOUGH MONSOON PATTERN TO NAIL DOWN MORE
THAN A FEW HOURS OUT. THAT SAID, WE ARE LIKELY GOING TO START THINGS
OFF ON THE INTERESTING SIDE TODAY BASED ON HOW THE RADAR HAS FILLED
BACK IN OVER THE LAST HOUR. A BROAD DISTURBANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHWEST ACROSS SOCAL INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WHICH COMBINED WITH A SOUTHEAST TO WEST
ORIENTED JET STREAM RUNNING AROUND 60 KTS+ AT 250 MB OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WAS HELPING TO SERVE AS A LIFTING MECHANISM ON A
LARGER SCALE FOR CONVECTION THIS MORNING. WE REALLY NEVER SAW
EVERYTHING SHUT DOWN YESTERDAY EVENING AND THUS THE ACTIVITY
PRESENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WAS FED OFF WHAT WAS GENERATED ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARIZONA LATER YESTERDAY EVENING. THE HRRR DID A GOOD JOB
LAST EVENING LATCHING ONTO THIS AND THUS NOW THAT WE ARE SEEING IT
BECOME REALITY, I WENT AHEAD AND SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED POPS FOR
THE REST OF THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CLARK COUNTY, INCLUDING THE
LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING (WHICH HAS BEEN
QUITE IMPRESSIVE TO VIEW OUT THE WINDOW WITH THE SIZE OF THE CG
STRIKES), DOWNPOURS POTENTIALLY CAUSING MINOR FLOODING AND WIND
GUSTS. ONCE WE MOVE THROUGH THE MORNING, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WORK
WEST TOWARD SOUTHERN NYE AND SOUTHERN INYO COUNTIES. AS A RESULT,
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWFA SHOULD STAY RATHER CLOUDY TODAY AND
HIGHS WERE LOWERED OVER THAT AREA A FEW DEGREES. ACROSS LAS VEGAS,
ONCE WE SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END BY LATER THIS MORNING OR
AT THE LATEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL PROBABLY BE WORKED OVER
ENOUGH THAT THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WE MAY
BE A BIT TOO MOIST AND CLEAR SLOWLY ENOUGH THAT WE STILL MAY BE TOO
WARM ON THE HIGH TEMP FOR TODAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT TODAY REMAINS SOUTHEAST AND AS A RESULT, POPS WERE
KEPT DOWN ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY, WHICH MAY SEE SOME ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE PLATEAU REGION. FURTHER
SOUTHWEST IN MOHAVE COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY IT LOOKS TOO STABLE TODAY TO SEE MUCH AND POPS
WERE TRIMMED BACK. WITH THE FLOW STAYING SOUTHEAST ALOFT, THERE IS
LESS OF A RISK THIS EVENING FOR MUCH ACTIVITY TO WORK INTO THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY OR COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BELOW HOOVER DAM. THE MOST
ACTIVE AREAS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
LAS VEGAS.

OVERALL WE REMAIN WITH A ROAD RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA THAT SITS
AROUND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WE LOOK TO SEE AN AREA OF NVA
ENTER MUCH OF THE CWFA ON FRIDAY WHICH WOULD FAVOR A LACK OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FOR NOW, POPS WERE LEFT ALONE BUT MAY NEED TO
BE LOWERED. THE BEST ODDS LOOK TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
WHERE INSTABILITY AND CAPE IS STILL NOTED AND ACTIVITY POPS UP OVER
THE TERRAIN DRIVEN BY HEATING.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OFF THE BAJA IS
SLATED TO MOVE NORTH TO OFF SOCAL ON FRIDAY AND THEN OFF THE COAST
OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIKELY HELP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND THUS
WE SHOW AN INCREASE IN POPS HERE. ELSEWHERE IT LOOKS STABLE ENOUGH
THAT VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY MAY GET GOING WITH WHATEVER THAT CAN BE
DRIVEN BY HEATING AND OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. THUS FOR MOST FOLKS
ON THE 4TH IT SHOULD BE DRY BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR TEMPS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE HUMIDITY (SURFACE DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 40
AND 50 DEGREES).

BY SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO GO MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WHICH
WILL RESULT IN THINGS STARTING TO DRY OUT MORE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CWFA. POPS WERE KEPT MAINLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL AS THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MOHAVE
COUNTY.

I DID LOWER LOW TEMPS A TOUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS AS WE DRY
OUT AND SEE HEIGHTS LOWER A LITTLE AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

IT APPEARS THE FIRST BREAK IN THE MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN INCREASINGLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADS INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
THIS DRY AND STABLE FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST THEN PARKS OFFSHORE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. I WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...CENTRAL NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA ZONES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT THAT IS STILL QUITE HOT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 105-110 DEGREES ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO
RIVER REGION.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES. &&

$$

UPDATE...ADAIR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...ADAIR





000
FXUS65 KVEF 021347
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
645 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT ANYTIME ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND PRIMARILY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER EACH NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT DROP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE MAY ALSO BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THEN.
&&

.UPDATE...THE POP/WX GRIDS THROUGH 18Z WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO
BRING IN LINE WITH THE LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS...REDUCING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY AND
EXPANDING A LITTLE MORE FROM NORTHWEST CLARK COUNTY TO ESMERALDA AND
CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SHRA/TSRA WILL END AFTER 15Z THIS
MORNING. THINGS SHOULD STAY DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AROUND THE
VALLEY. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
SCT CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET. WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR DIURNAL
DIRECTIONAL TRENDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS EXPECTED IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS
6K-10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. &&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
306 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS CONTINUES TO REMAIN A TOUGH MONSOON PATTERN TO NAIL DOWN MORE
THAN A FEW HOURS OUT. THAT SAID, WE ARE LIKELY GOING TO START THINGS
OFF ON THE INTERESTING SIDE TODAY BASED ON HOW THE RADAR HAS FILLED
BACK IN OVER THE LAST HOUR. A BROAD DISTURBANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHWEST ACROSS SOCAL INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WHICH COMBINED WITH A SOUTHEAST TO WEST
ORIENTED JET STREAM RUNNING AROUND 60 KTS+ AT 250 MB OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WAS HELPING TO SERVE AS A LIFTING MECHANISM ON A
LARGER SCALE FOR CONVECTION THIS MORNING. WE REALLY NEVER SAW
EVERYTHING SHUT DOWN YESTERDAY EVENING AND THUS THE ACTIVITY
PRESENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WAS FED OFF WHAT WAS GENERATED ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARIZONA LATER YESTERDAY EVENING. THE HRRR DID A GOOD JOB
LAST EVENING LATCHING ONTO THIS AND THUS NOW THAT WE ARE SEEING IT
BECOME REALITY, I WENT AHEAD AND SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED POPS FOR
THE REST OF THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CLARK COUNTY, INCLUDING THE
LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING (WHICH HAS BEEN
QUITE IMPRESSIVE TO VIEW OUT THE WINDOW WITH THE SIZE OF THE CG
STRIKES), DOWNPOURS POTENTIALLY CAUSING MINOR FLOODING AND WIND
GUSTS. ONCE WE MOVE THROUGH THE MORNING, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WORK
WEST TOWARD SOUTHERN NYE AND SOUTHERN INYO COUNTIES. AS A RESULT,
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWFA SHOULD STAY RATHER CLOUDY TODAY AND
HIGHS WERE LOWERED OVER THAT AREA A FEW DEGREES. ACROSS LAS VEGAS,
ONCE WE SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END BY LATER THIS MORNING OR
AT THE LATEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL PROBABLY BE WORKED OVER
ENOUGH THAT THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WE MAY
BE A BIT TOO MOIST AND CLEAR SLOWLY ENOUGH THAT WE STILL MAY BE TOO
WARM ON THE HIGH TEMP FOR TODAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT TODAY REMAINS SOUTHEAST AND AS A RESULT, POPS WERE
KEPT DOWN ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY, WHICH MAY SEE SOME ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE PLATEAU REGION. FURTHER
SOUTHWEST IN MOHAVE COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY IT LOOKS TOO STABLE TODAY TO SEE MUCH AND POPS
WERE TRIMMED BACK. WITH THE FLOW STAYING SOUTHEAST ALOFT, THERE IS
LESS OF A RISK THIS EVENING FOR MUCH ACTIVITY TO WORK INTO THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY OR COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BELOW HOOVER DAM. THE MOST
ACTIVE AREAS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
LAS VEGAS.

OVERALL WE REMAIN WITH A ROAD RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA THAT SITS
AROUND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WE LOOK TO SEE AN AREA OF NVA
ENTER MUCH OF THE CWFA ON FRIDAY WHICH WOULD FAVOR A LACK OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FOR NOW, POPS WERE LEFT ALONE BUT MAY NEED TO
BE LOWERED. THE BEST ODDS LOOK TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
WHERE INSTABILITY AND CAPE IS STILL NOTED AND ACTIVITY POPS UP OVER
THE TERRAIN DRIVEN BY HEATING.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OFF THE BAJA IS
SLATED TO MOVE NORTH TO OFF SOCAL ON FRIDAY AND THEN OFF THE COAST
OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIKELY HELP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND THUS
WE SHOW AN INCREASE IN POPS HERE. ELSEWHERE IT LOOKS STABLE ENOUGH
THAT VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY MAY GET GOING WITH WHATEVER THAT CAN BE
DRIVEN BY HEATING AND OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. THUS FOR MOST FOLKS
ON THE 4TH IT SHOULD BE DRY BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR TEMPS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE HUMIDITY (SURFACE DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 40
AND 50 DEGREES).

BY SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO GO MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WHICH
WILL RESULT IN THINGS STARTING TO DRY OUT MORE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CWFA. POPS WERE KEPT MAINLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL AS THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MOHAVE
COUNTY.

I DID LOWER LOW TEMPS A TOUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS AS WE DRY
OUT AND SEE HEIGHTS LOWER A LITTLE AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

IT APPEARS THE FIRST BREAK IN THE MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN INCREASINGLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADS INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
THIS DRY AND STABLE FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST THEN PARKS OFFSHORE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. I WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...CENTRAL NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA ZONES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT THAT IS STILL QUITE HOT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 105-110 DEGREES ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO
RIVER REGION.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES. &&

$$

UPDATE...ADAIR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...ADAIR




000
FXUS65 KVEF 021007
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
306 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT ANYTIME ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND PRIMARILY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER EACH NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT DROP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE MAY ALSO BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THEN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS CONTINUES TO REMAIN A TOUGH MONSOON PATTERN TO NAIL DOWN MORE
THAN A FEW HOURS OUT. THAT SAID, WE ARE LIKELY GOING TO START THINGS
OFF ON THE INTERESTING SIDE TODAY BASED ON HOW THE RADAR HAS FILLED
BACK IN OVER THE LAST HOUR. A BROAD DISTURBANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHWEST ACROSS SOCAL INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WHICH COMBINED WITH A SOUTHEAST TO WEST
ORIENTED JET STREAM RUNNING AROUND 60 KTS+ AT 250 MB OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WAS HELPING TO SERVE AS A LIFTING MECHANISM ON A
LARGER SCALE FOR CONVECTION THIS MORNING. WE REALLY NEVER SAW
EVERYTHING SHUT DOWN YESTERDAY EVENING AND THUS THE ACTIVITY
PRESENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WAS FED OFF WHAT WAS GENERATED ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARIZONA LATER YESTERDAY EVENING. THE HRRR DID A GOOD JOB
LAST EVENING LATCHING ONTO THIS AND THUS NOW THAT WE ARE SEEING IT
BECOME REALITY, I WENT AHEAD AND SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED POPS FOR
THE REST OF THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CLARK COUNTY, INCLUDING THE
LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING (WHICH HAS BEEN
QUITE IMPRESSIVE TO VIEW OUT THE WINDOW WITH THE SIZE OF THE CG
STRIKES), DOWNPOURS POTENTIALLY CAUSING MINOR FLOODING AND WIND
GUSTS. ONCE WE MOVE THROUGH THE MORNING, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WORK
WEST TOWARD SOUTHERN NYE AND SOUTHERN INYO COUNTIES. AS A RESULT,
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWFA SHOULD STAY RATHER CLOUDY TODAY AND
HIGHS WERE LOWERED OVER THAT AREA A FEW DEGREES. ACROSS LAS VEGAS,
ONCE WE SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END BY LATER THIS MORNING OR
AT THE LATEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL PROBABLY BE WORKED OVER
ENOUGH THAT THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WE MAY
BE A BIT TOO MOIST AND CLEAR SLOWLY ENOUGH THAT WE STILL MAY BE TOO
WARM ON THE HIGH TEMP FOR TODAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT TODAY REMAINS SOUTHEAST AND AS A RESULT, POPS WERE
KEPT DOWN ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY, WHICH MAY SEE SOME ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE PLATEAU REGION. FURTHER
SOUTHWEST IN MOHAVE COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY IT LOOKS TOO STABLE TODAY TO SEE MUCH AND POPS
WERE TRIMMED BACK. WITH THE FLOW STAYING SOUTHEAST ALOFT, THERE IS
LESS OF A RISK THIS EVENING FOR MUCH ACTIVITY TO WORK INTO THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY OR COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BELOW HOOVER DAM. THE MOST
ACTIVE AREAS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
LAS VEGAS.

OVERALL WE REMAIN WITH A ROAD RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA THAT SITS
AROUND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WE LOOK TO SEE AN AREA OF NVA
ENTER MUCH OF THE CWFA ON FRIDAY WHICH WOULD FAVOR A LACK OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FOR NOW, POPS WERE LEFT ALONE BUT MAY NEED TO
BE LOWERED. THE BEST ODDS LOOK TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
WHERE INSTABILITY AND CAPE IS STILL NOTED AND ACTIVITY POPS UP OVER
THE TERRAIN DRIVEN BY HEATING.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OFF THE BAJA IS
SLATED TO MOVE NORTH TO OFF SOCAL ON FRIDAY AND THEN OFF THE COAST
OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIKELY HELP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND THUS
WE SHOW AN INCREASE IN POPS HERE. ELSEWHERE IT LOOKS STABLE ENOUGH
THAT VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY MAY GET GOING WITH WHATEVER THAT CAN BE
DRIVEN BY HEATING AND OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. THUS FOR MOST FOLKS
ON THE 4TH IT SHOULD BE DRY BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR TEMPS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE HUMIDITY (SURFACE DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 40
AND 50 DEGREES).

BY SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO GO MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WHICH
WILL RESULT IN THINGS STARTING TO DRY OUT MORE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CWFA. POPS WERE KEPT MAINLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL AS THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MOHAVE
COUNTY.

I DID LOWER LOW TEMPS A TOUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS AS WE DRY
OUT AND SEE HEIGHTS LOWER A LITTLE AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

IT APPEARS THE FIRST BREAK IN THE MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN INCREASINGLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADS INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
THIS DRY AND STABLE FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST THEN PARKS OFFSHORE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. I WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...CENTRAL NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA ZONES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT THAT IS STILL QUITE HOT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 105-110 DEGREES ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO
RIVER REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING ENDING BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z TODAY. REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY AS
WELL AS GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN AND NEAR SHRA/TSRA. THINGS SHOULD
STAY DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AROUND THE VALLEY. LOOK FOR
IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS AOA
15K FEET. WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS
6K-10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...ADAIR




000
FXUS65 KVEF 021007
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
306 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT ANYTIME ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND PRIMARILY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER EACH NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT DROP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE MAY ALSO BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THEN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS CONTINUES TO REMAIN A TOUGH MONSOON PATTERN TO NAIL DOWN MORE
THAN A FEW HOURS OUT. THAT SAID, WE ARE LIKELY GOING TO START THINGS
OFF ON THE INTERESTING SIDE TODAY BASED ON HOW THE RADAR HAS FILLED
BACK IN OVER THE LAST HOUR. A BROAD DISTURBANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHWEST ACROSS SOCAL INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WHICH COMBINED WITH A SOUTHEAST TO WEST
ORIENTED JET STREAM RUNNING AROUND 60 KTS+ AT 250 MB OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WAS HELPING TO SERVE AS A LIFTING MECHANISM ON A
LARGER SCALE FOR CONVECTION THIS MORNING. WE REALLY NEVER SAW
EVERYTHING SHUT DOWN YESTERDAY EVENING AND THUS THE ACTIVITY
PRESENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WAS FED OFF WHAT WAS GENERATED ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARIZONA LATER YESTERDAY EVENING. THE HRRR DID A GOOD JOB
LAST EVENING LATCHING ONTO THIS AND THUS NOW THAT WE ARE SEEING IT
BECOME REALITY, I WENT AHEAD AND SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED POPS FOR
THE REST OF THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CLARK COUNTY, INCLUDING THE
LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING (WHICH HAS BEEN
QUITE IMPRESSIVE TO VIEW OUT THE WINDOW WITH THE SIZE OF THE CG
STRIKES), DOWNPOURS POTENTIALLY CAUSING MINOR FLOODING AND WIND
GUSTS. ONCE WE MOVE THROUGH THE MORNING, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WORK
WEST TOWARD SOUTHERN NYE AND SOUTHERN INYO COUNTIES. AS A RESULT,
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWFA SHOULD STAY RATHER CLOUDY TODAY AND
HIGHS WERE LOWERED OVER THAT AREA A FEW DEGREES. ACROSS LAS VEGAS,
ONCE WE SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END BY LATER THIS MORNING OR
AT THE LATEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL PROBABLY BE WORKED OVER
ENOUGH THAT THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WE MAY
BE A BIT TOO MOIST AND CLEAR SLOWLY ENOUGH THAT WE STILL MAY BE TOO
WARM ON THE HIGH TEMP FOR TODAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT TODAY REMAINS SOUTHEAST AND AS A RESULT, POPS WERE
KEPT DOWN ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY, WHICH MAY SEE SOME ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE PLATEAU REGION. FURTHER
SOUTHWEST IN MOHAVE COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY IT LOOKS TOO STABLE TODAY TO SEE MUCH AND POPS
WERE TRIMMED BACK. WITH THE FLOW STAYING SOUTHEAST ALOFT, THERE IS
LESS OF A RISK THIS EVENING FOR MUCH ACTIVITY TO WORK INTO THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY OR COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BELOW HOOVER DAM. THE MOST
ACTIVE AREAS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
LAS VEGAS.

OVERALL WE REMAIN WITH A ROAD RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA THAT SITS
AROUND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WE LOOK TO SEE AN AREA OF NVA
ENTER MUCH OF THE CWFA ON FRIDAY WHICH WOULD FAVOR A LACK OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FOR NOW, POPS WERE LEFT ALONE BUT MAY NEED TO
BE LOWERED. THE BEST ODDS LOOK TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
WHERE INSTABILITY AND CAPE IS STILL NOTED AND ACTIVITY POPS UP OVER
THE TERRAIN DRIVEN BY HEATING.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OFF THE BAJA IS
SLATED TO MOVE NORTH TO OFF SOCAL ON FRIDAY AND THEN OFF THE COAST
OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIKELY HELP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND THUS
WE SHOW AN INCREASE IN POPS HERE. ELSEWHERE IT LOOKS STABLE ENOUGH
THAT VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY MAY GET GOING WITH WHATEVER THAT CAN BE
DRIVEN BY HEATING AND OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. THUS FOR MOST FOLKS
ON THE 4TH IT SHOULD BE DRY BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR TEMPS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE HUMIDITY (SURFACE DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 40
AND 50 DEGREES).

BY SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO GO MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WHICH
WILL RESULT IN THINGS STARTING TO DRY OUT MORE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CWFA. POPS WERE KEPT MAINLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL AS THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MOHAVE
COUNTY.

I DID LOWER LOW TEMPS A TOUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS AS WE DRY
OUT AND SEE HEIGHTS LOWER A LITTLE AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

IT APPEARS THE FIRST BREAK IN THE MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN INCREASINGLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADS INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
THIS DRY AND STABLE FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST THEN PARKS OFFSHORE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. I WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...CENTRAL NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA ZONES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT THAT IS STILL QUITE HOT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 105-110 DEGREES ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO
RIVER REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING ENDING BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z TODAY. REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY AS
WELL AS GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN AND NEAR SHRA/TSRA. THINGS SHOULD
STAY DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AROUND THE VALLEY. LOOK FOR
IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS AOA
15K FEET. WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS
6K-10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...ADAIR





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