Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS65 KVEF 230855
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
155 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. A TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND
COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

A COUPLE MORE QUIET WEATHER DAYS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN. OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING, THE SKY WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT OVERALL THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL WARM TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

CHANGES BEGIN SATURDAY AS MODELS BRING TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA TODAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AND SWING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. THE LATEST NAM ACTUALLY GENERATES LIGHT QPF OVER THE
MOJAVE DESERT AND UP INTO LINCOLN COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. THIS SOLUTION IS THE OUTLIER AT THE
MOMENT AS THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS
BRUSHING NORTHWEST ARIZONA. THE TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY
NIGHT RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. A HIRES MODEL SHOWS A
POSSIBLE DOWNSLOPE EVENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES
SATURDAY BUT KEEPS IT ANCHORED TO THE MID AND UPPER SLOPES WITH NO
HINT OF STRONGER WINDS MAKING IT ONTO THE LOWER SLOPES OR INTO THE
OWENS VALLEY. WILL MONITOR THE TROUGHS DEVELOPMENT AND APPROACH
TRACK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO SEE IF IT WILL BRING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE AREA REMAINING
UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUNDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...WITH RIDGING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES. THE WESTERN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA.
LOWER HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT AND SOME INCREASING CLOUDS WILL COOL US
DOWN ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES FROM WHAT WE EXPERIENCE SATURDAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...LATE SUNDAY
ACROSS OUR NORTH AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES MONDAY AS THE FRONT
WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKES
HOLD. SOME BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...PARTICULARLY
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING...WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS FOR
WEDNESDAY. WILL USE A BALANCED BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
COMBINE WITH THE NAEFS MEAN. THIS WILL KEEP US UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND PROVIDE SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS AS TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 8 KTS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THEN BECOME LIGHT BY 16Z. AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BESIDES SCT CIRRUS AOA 25K FT ACROSS THE NORTH...CLEAR
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 10KTS NEAR THE AIRFIELDS THROUGH THIS EVENING EXCEPT KBIH
COULD SEE OCCASIONAL STRONGER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SALMEN/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 230318 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
818 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.
INCREASING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY ONWARD ALONG THE SIERRA
SLOPES AS A TROUGH NUDGES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO
LEAD TO COOLER WEATHER AREA WIDE SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A PATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
-SALMEN-

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...245 PM PDT...

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FAIR WEATHER PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA/NEW
MEXICO WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS RESULTING IN A
FEW DEGREES OF WARMING EACH DAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BUMP
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS THE DESERTS (6 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER) AS 588 DM HEIGHTS NUDGE INTO THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PACIFIC TROUGHING NUDGING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN STATES WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES...THEY LOOK TO STAY BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ONE MORE WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL DRAG
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR THIS POINT IN THE SEASON. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER DRY...VERY LOW POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST THIS
WEEKEND FOR PARTS OF THE SIERRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO COULD BE GENERATED.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL LINGER NEXT WEEK AS ZONAL JET FLOW SITS
ACROSS THE U.S. AND OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. AFTER A LONG STRING OF 80 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IN
OCTOBER FOR LAS VEGAS (THE ENTIRE FIRST TWO-THIRDS OF THE MONTH FOR
THAT MATTER)...70S DOMINATE THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
THIS EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND SOME TENDENCY FOR EASTERLY COMPONENTS AFTER 18Z.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BESIDES OCCASIONAL SCT CIRRUS AOA 25K FT CLEAR FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.  SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
10KTS NEAR THE AIRFIELDS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

















000
FXUS65 KVEF 222142
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
245 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.
INCREASING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY ONWARD ALONG THE SIERRA
SLOPES AS A TROUGH NUDGES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO
LEAD TO COOLER WEATHER AREA WIDE SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FAIR WEATHER PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA/NEW
MEXICO WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS RESULTING IN A
FEW DEGREES OF WARMING EACH DAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BUMP
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS THE DESERTS (6 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER) AS 588 DM HEIGHTS NUDGE INTO THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PACIFIC TROUGHING NUDGING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN STATES WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES...THEY LOOK TO STAY BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ONE MORE WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL DRAG
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR THIS POINT IN THE SEASON. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER DRY...VERY LOW POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST THIS
WEEKEND FOR PARTS OF THE SIERRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO COULD BE GENERATED.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL LINGER NEXT WEEK AS ZONAL JET FLOW SITS
ACROSS THE U.S. AND OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. AFTER A LONG STRING OF 80 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IN
OCTOBER FOR LAS VEGAS (THE ENTIRE FIRST TWO-THIRDS OF THE MONTH FOR
THAT MATTER)...70S DOMINATE THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
THIS EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND SOME TENDENCY FOR EASTERLY COMPONENTS AFTER 18Z.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BESIDES OCCASIONAL SCT CIRRUS AOA 25K FT CLEAR FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.  SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
10KTS NEAR THE AIRFIELDS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER














000
FXUS65 KVEF 221613
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
915 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING
SATURDAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA WHILE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ELSEWHERE.
&&

.UPDATE...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME HIGH AND THIN CIRRUS
STREAMING OVERHEAD. ANOTHER RATHER WARM OCTOBER DAY IS IN STORE WITH
THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING INDICATING A HIGH IN LAS VEGAS OF 86F...WHICH
IS ABOUT 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.


&&
.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING AN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN PUSHING INLAND SATURDAY.
AT THE START OF THE DAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. STILL LOOKS LIKE SUB-ADVISORY
WINDS AT THIS TIME. THEN SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA MIDDAY SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SOME LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE LEE OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS.

THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST SUNDAY WITH TWO WAVES OF ENERGY SLATED
TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE OVER OUR AREA. THE FIRST
WILL BE EARLY SUNDAY AND MAY JUST CROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES...WHILE THE SECOND WILL SWING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING. IT APPEARS NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD SEE MORE OF A NORTHERLY
WIND EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT. SOUTHERN AREAS
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE
SHOULD STILL COOL DOWN NICELY SUNDAY WITH LOWER HEIGHTS/TEMPS
ALOFT...SOME HIGH CLOUDS...AND THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH. WE
SHOULD THEN DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES MONDAY AS THE FRONT WILL BE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. WOULD
ALSO EXPECT SOME BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS OUR NORTH TO UPPER 70S/LOW
80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT FEEL LIKE FALL. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER TUESDAY WITH A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ANTICIPATED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 7KTS WILL BECOME
VARIABLE BETWEEN 14-18Z. AFTER 18Z WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA
20KFT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10KTS OVER MOST
AREAS TODAY WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20KFT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$
UPDATE...OUTLER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GORELOW/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER











000
FXUS65 KVEF 220929
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
230 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING
SATURDAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA WHILE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ELSEWHERE.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING AN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN PUSHING INLAND SATURDAY.
AT THE START OF THE DAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. STILL LOOKS LIKE SUB-ADVISORY
WINDS AT THIS TIME. THEN SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA MIDDAY SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SOME LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE LEE OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS.

THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST SUNDAY WITH TWO WAVES OF ENERGY SLATED
TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE OVER OUR AREA. THE FIRST
WILL BE EARLY SUNDAY AND MAY JUST CROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES...WHILE THE SECOND WILL SWING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING. IT APPEARS NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD SEE MORE OF A NORTHERLY
WIND EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT. SOUTHERN AREAS
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE
SHOULD STILL COOL DOWN NICELY SUNDAY WITH LOWER HEIGHTS/TEMPS
ALOFT...SOME HIGH CLOUDS...AND THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH. WE
SHOULD THEN DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES MONDAY AS THE FRONT WILL BE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. WOULD
ALSO EXPECT SOME BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS OUR NORTH TO UPPER 70S/LOW
80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT FEEL LIKE FALL. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER TUESDAY WITH A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ANTICIPATED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 7KTS WILL BECOME
VARIABLE BETWEEN 14-18Z. AFTER 18Z WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA
20KFT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10KTS OVER MOST
AREAS TODAY WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20KFT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

GORELOW/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KVEF 220447 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
947 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING SATURDAY WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WHILE GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ELSEWHERE.
&&

.UPDATE...WINDS HAVE DECREASED THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
AND JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES PLANNED.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
234 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS CLARK...LINCOLN AND
MOHAVE COUNTIES ASSOCIATED WITH EXITING SHORTWAVE WILL LINGER INTO
THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR UNDER PASSING WAVES OF HIGH CLOUDS.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OUR STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS SET TO CONTINUE AS A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EASTWARD TO TEXAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL START TO INCREASE IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST (INYO/ESMERALDA COUNTIES) DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH.

FROM SATURDAY ONWARD, THE ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.
HOWEVER...DID NOT MAKE MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES JUST IN CASE EITHER
MODEL FLIPS BACK TO A DEEPER TROUGH PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST
AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY. LOCALIZED
DOWNSLOPING POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND SPRING
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS LOOK TO STAY
SUB-ADVISORY THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SATURDAY MAY
BE THE WARMEST DAY FOLLOWED BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF COOLING SUNDAY.
THAT 10 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL BRING READINGS BACK DOWN TO
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20KFT TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ONCE GUSTS
DIMINISH A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. DURING PEAK HEATING
WEDNESDAY WINDS SHOULD FAVOR AN EASTERLY DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS LESS
THAN 10 KTS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20KFT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10KTS OR LESS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
CLARK...LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND BE LESS THAN 10 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

GORELOW/PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER










000
FXUS65 KVEF 220447 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
947 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING SATURDAY WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WHILE GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ELSEWHERE.
&&

.UPDATE...WINDS HAVE DECREASED THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
AND JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES PLANNED.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
234 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS CLARK...LINCOLN AND
MOHAVE COUNTIES ASSOCIATED WITH EXITING SHORTWAVE WILL LINGER INTO
THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR UNDER PASSING WAVES OF HIGH CLOUDS.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OUR STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS SET TO CONTINUE AS A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EASTWARD TO TEXAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL START TO INCREASE IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST (INYO/ESMERALDA COUNTIES) DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH.

FROM SATURDAY ONWARD, THE ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.
HOWEVER...DID NOT MAKE MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES JUST IN CASE EITHER
MODEL FLIPS BACK TO A DEEPER TROUGH PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST
AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY. LOCALIZED
DOWNSLOPING POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND SPRING
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS LOOK TO STAY
SUB-ADVISORY THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SATURDAY MAY
BE THE WARMEST DAY FOLLOWED BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF COOLING SUNDAY.
THAT 10 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL BRING READINGS BACK DOWN TO
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20KFT TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ONCE GUSTS
DIMINISH A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. DURING PEAK HEATING
WEDNESDAY WINDS SHOULD FAVOR AN EASTERLY DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS LESS
THAN 10 KTS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20KFT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10KTS OR LESS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
CLARK...LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND BE LESS THAN 10 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

GORELOW/PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER










000
FXUS65 KVEF 212134
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
234 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING SATURDAY WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WHILE GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ELSEWHERE.
&&

.DISCUSSION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS CLARK...LINCOLN AND
MOHAVE COUNTIES ASSOCIATED WITH EXITING SHORTWAVE WILL LINGER INTO
THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR UNDER PASSING WAVES OF HIGH CLOUDS.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OUR STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS SET TO CONTINUE AS A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EASTWARD TO TEXAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL START TO INCREASE IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST (INYO/ESMERALDA COUNTIES) DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH.

FROM SATURDAY ONWARD, THE ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.
HOWEVER...DID NOT MAKE MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES JUST IN CASE EITHER
MODEL FLIPS BACK TO A DEEPER TROUGH PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST
AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY. LOCALIZED
DOWNSLOPING POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND SPRING
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS LOOK TO STAY
SUB-ADVISORY THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SATURDAY MAY
BE THE WARMEST DAY FOLLOWED BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF COOLING SUNDAY.
THAT 10 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL BRING READINGS BACK DOWN TO
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20KFT TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ONCE GUSTS
DIMINISH A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. DURING PEAK HEATING
WEDNESDAY WINDS SHOULD FAVOR AN EASTERLY DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS LESS
THAN 10 KTS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20KFT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10KTS OR LESS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
CLARK...LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND BE LESS THAN 10 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 212134
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
234 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING SATURDAY WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WHILE GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ELSEWHERE.
&&

.DISCUSSION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS CLARK...LINCOLN AND
MOHAVE COUNTIES ASSOCIATED WITH EXITING SHORTWAVE WILL LINGER INTO
THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR UNDER PASSING WAVES OF HIGH CLOUDS.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OUR STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS SET TO CONTINUE AS A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EASTWARD TO TEXAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL START TO INCREASE IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST (INYO/ESMERALDA COUNTIES) DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH.

FROM SATURDAY ONWARD, THE ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.
HOWEVER...DID NOT MAKE MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES JUST IN CASE EITHER
MODEL FLIPS BACK TO A DEEPER TROUGH PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST
AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY. LOCALIZED
DOWNSLOPING POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND SPRING
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS LOOK TO STAY
SUB-ADVISORY THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SATURDAY MAY
BE THE WARMEST DAY FOLLOWED BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF COOLING SUNDAY.
THAT 10 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL BRING READINGS BACK DOWN TO
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20KFT TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ONCE GUSTS
DIMINISH A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. DURING PEAK HEATING
WEDNESDAY WINDS SHOULD FAVOR AN EASTERLY DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS LESS
THAN 10 KTS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20KFT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10KTS OR LESS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
CLARK...LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND BE LESS THAN 10 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 211657 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
958 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
PRODUCING LOCALLY BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SOME CLOUD
COVER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.UPDATE...LOCALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT MAINLY
LINCOLN...CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN IDAHO LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION. TWEAKED THE WIND/WIND GUSTS FOR THE REST OF
TODAY...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
230 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

SHORTWAVE CURRENT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ELKO`S FORECAST AREA.
OUTSIDE OF A BAND OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING THROUGH MOHAVE
COUNTY THIS MORNING SKIES ACROSS OUR CWA ARE GENERALLY CLEAR. WE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
WEST...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING...BUT THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS FRONT BASICALLY WASHES
OUT BEFORE REACHING SOUTHERN NEVADA. SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER MAINLY MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OTHER
AREAS WILL MAINLY SEE WINDS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE. WE WILL SEE SOME
COOLING TODAY WITH READINGS DOWN ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY
AND ANOTHER 1-3 DEGREES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
STARTING TO WARM AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE IN CONTROL
FRIDAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EAST SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR WEST AND NORTH FRIDAY...THEN AREA-WIDE
SATURDAY. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE
INDICATING SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE SIERRA SATURDAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS BEGINS SHIFTING EAST. THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH. OUR FORECAST
FOLLOWS AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH GENERALLY SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE.
SO...A DRY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. FOR THOSE EAGERLY
AWAITING COOLER TEMPERATURES...MOTHER NATURE HAS GRANTED YOUR WISH.
ON AVERAGE...THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DROP IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY...TAKING US CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE WILL ALSO SEE NORTH-NORTHWEST
BREEZES SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SOME BREEZES DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY...BUT ELSEWHERE SHOULD SEE
LIGHTER WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20KFT THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS FOR MUCH OF TODAY THEN DECREASING
THIS EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE DAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10-18KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20KFT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM...PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 211657 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
958 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
PRODUCING LOCALLY BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SOME CLOUD
COVER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.UPDATE...LOCALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT MAINLY
LINCOLN...CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN IDAHO LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION. TWEAKED THE WIND/WIND GUSTS FOR THE REST OF
TODAY...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
230 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

SHORTWAVE CURRENT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ELKO`S FORECAST AREA.
OUTSIDE OF A BAND OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING THROUGH MOHAVE
COUNTY THIS MORNING SKIES ACROSS OUR CWA ARE GENERALLY CLEAR. WE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
WEST...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING...BUT THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS FRONT BASICALLY WASHES
OUT BEFORE REACHING SOUTHERN NEVADA. SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER MAINLY MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OTHER
AREAS WILL MAINLY SEE WINDS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE. WE WILL SEE SOME
COOLING TODAY WITH READINGS DOWN ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY
AND ANOTHER 1-3 DEGREES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
STARTING TO WARM AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE IN CONTROL
FRIDAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EAST SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR WEST AND NORTH FRIDAY...THEN AREA-WIDE
SATURDAY. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE
INDICATING SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE SIERRA SATURDAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS BEGINS SHIFTING EAST. THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH. OUR FORECAST
FOLLOWS AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH GENERALLY SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE.
SO...A DRY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. FOR THOSE EAGERLY
AWAITING COOLER TEMPERATURES...MOTHER NATURE HAS GRANTED YOUR WISH.
ON AVERAGE...THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DROP IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY...TAKING US CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE WILL ALSO SEE NORTH-NORTHWEST
BREEZES SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SOME BREEZES DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY...BUT ELSEWHERE SHOULD SEE
LIGHTER WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20KFT THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS FOR MUCH OF TODAY THEN DECREASING
THIS EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE DAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10-18KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20KFT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM...PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 210944
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
230 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
PRODUCING LOCALLY BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SOME CLOUD
COVER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

SHORTWAVE CURRENT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ELKO`S FORECAST AREA.
OUTSIDE OF A BAND OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING THROUGH MOHAVE
COUNTY THIS MORNING SKIES ACROSS OUR CWA ARE GENERALLY CLEAR. WE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
WEST...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING...BUT THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS FRONT BASICALLY WASHES
OUT BEFORE REACHING SOUTHERN NEVADA. SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER MAINLY MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OTHER
AREAS WILL MAINLY SEE WINDS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE. WE WILL SEE SOME
COOLING TODAY WITH READINGS DOWN ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY
AND ANOTHER 1-3 DEGREES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
STARTING TO WARM AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE IN CONTROL
FRIDAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EAST SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR WEST AND NORTH FRIDAY...THEN AREA-WIDE
SATURDAY. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE
INDICATING SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE SIERRA SATURDAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS BEGINS SHIFTING EAST. THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH. OUR FORECAST
FOLLOWS AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH GENERALLY SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE.
SO...A DRY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. FOR THOSE EAGERLY
AWAITING COOLER TEMPERATURES...MOTHER NATURE HAS GRANTED YOUR WISH.
ON AVERAGE...THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DROP IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY...TAKING US CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE WILL ALSO SEE NORTH-NORTHWEST
BREEZES SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SOME BREEZES DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY...BUT ELSEWHERE SHOULD SEE
LIGHTER WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20KFT THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 7-9 KTS FOR MUCH OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE DAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10-18KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20KFT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM...PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KVEF 210944
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
230 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
PRODUCING LOCALLY BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SOME CLOUD
COVER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

SHORTWAVE CURRENT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ELKO`S FORECAST AREA.
OUTSIDE OF A BAND OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING THROUGH MOHAVE
COUNTY THIS MORNING SKIES ACROSS OUR CWA ARE GENERALLY CLEAR. WE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
WEST...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING...BUT THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS FRONT BASICALLY WASHES
OUT BEFORE REACHING SOUTHERN NEVADA. SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER MAINLY MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OTHER
AREAS WILL MAINLY SEE WINDS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE. WE WILL SEE SOME
COOLING TODAY WITH READINGS DOWN ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY
AND ANOTHER 1-3 DEGREES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
STARTING TO WARM AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE IN CONTROL
FRIDAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EAST SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR WEST AND NORTH FRIDAY...THEN AREA-WIDE
SATURDAY. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE
INDICATING SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE SIERRA SATURDAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS BEGINS SHIFTING EAST. THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH. OUR FORECAST
FOLLOWS AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH GENERALLY SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE.
SO...A DRY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. FOR THOSE EAGERLY
AWAITING COOLER TEMPERATURES...MOTHER NATURE HAS GRANTED YOUR WISH.
ON AVERAGE...THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DROP IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY...TAKING US CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE WILL ALSO SEE NORTH-NORTHWEST
BREEZES SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SOME BREEZES DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY...BUT ELSEWHERE SHOULD SEE
LIGHTER WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20KFT THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 7-9 KTS FOR MUCH OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE DAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10-18KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20KFT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM...PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER










000
FXUS65 KVEF 210331 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
830 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY PRODUCING LOCALLY BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
SOME CLOUD COVER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.UPDATE...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS STILL INDICATE SOME DOWNSLOPE POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. NO
UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
305 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY WAS RESULTING IN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOHAVE
COUNTY BUT NO SHOWERS YET. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP THERE THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST WAS GENERATING
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
SOME CLOUD COVER. THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SIERRA TONIGHT BRINGING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES.
THE 12Z HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH WIND SPEEDS BOTH IN
THE BISHOP AND INDEPENDENCE AREAS. SO AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS A WIND
ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED. I KEPT THE FORECAST DRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS GENERATING
SOME QPF IN LINCOLN COUNTY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS IS NOT REALLY
SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS. RIDGING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
COOLEST OF THE THREE DAYS ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH IN MOST
AREAS. A BIT OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE IS EXPECTED IN EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BUT GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY AS WE
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH PRESSURE AREA. MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF
SLOWER AND THE GFS REMAINING THE SAME. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE
INLINE WITH THE LATEST GFS AND TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THAT
DIRECTION.

WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD THE TROUGH AND SHOULD
BE STRONGEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. A FEW LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DOWNSLOPE
SIGNATURES ALONG THE SIERRA ON SATURDAY AND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY DROPPING TEMPERATURES 8 TO 12 DEGREES ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 14KFT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25KFT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
EAST WINDS 8 KTS OF LESS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST UP TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS MOST OF TUESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER INYO...ESMERALDA...AND
CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES 10-20 MPH WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BECOMING NORTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING IN INYO AND NYE
COUNTIES. MAINLY SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY ELSEWHERE.
STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA
SLOPES TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GORELOW
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...STUMPF

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER















000
FXUS65 KVEF 210331 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
830 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY PRODUCING LOCALLY BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
SOME CLOUD COVER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.UPDATE...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS STILL INDICATE SOME DOWNSLOPE POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. NO
UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
305 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY WAS RESULTING IN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOHAVE
COUNTY BUT NO SHOWERS YET. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP THERE THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST WAS GENERATING
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
SOME CLOUD COVER. THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SIERRA TONIGHT BRINGING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES.
THE 12Z HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH WIND SPEEDS BOTH IN
THE BISHOP AND INDEPENDENCE AREAS. SO AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS A WIND
ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED. I KEPT THE FORECAST DRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS GENERATING
SOME QPF IN LINCOLN COUNTY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS IS NOT REALLY
SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS. RIDGING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
COOLEST OF THE THREE DAYS ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH IN MOST
AREAS. A BIT OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE IS EXPECTED IN EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BUT GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY AS WE
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH PRESSURE AREA. MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF
SLOWER AND THE GFS REMAINING THE SAME. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE
INLINE WITH THE LATEST GFS AND TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THAT
DIRECTION.

WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD THE TROUGH AND SHOULD
BE STRONGEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. A FEW LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DOWNSLOPE
SIGNATURES ALONG THE SIERRA ON SATURDAY AND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY DROPPING TEMPERATURES 8 TO 12 DEGREES ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 14KFT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25KFT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
EAST WINDS 8 KTS OF LESS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST UP TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS MOST OF TUESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER INYO...ESMERALDA...AND
CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES 10-20 MPH WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BECOMING NORTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING IN INYO AND NYE
COUNTIES. MAINLY SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY ELSEWHERE.
STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA
SLOPES TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GORELOW
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...STUMPF

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER














000
FXUS65 KVEF 202206
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
305 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY PRODUCING LOCALLY BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
SOME CLOUD COVER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY WAS RESULTING IN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOHAVE
COUNTY BUT NO SHOWERS YET. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP THERE THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST WAS GENERATING
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
SOME CLOUD COVER. THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SIERRA TONIGHT BRINGING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES.
THE 12Z HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH WIND SPEEDS BOTH IN
THE BISHOP AND INDEPENDENCE AREAS. SO AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS A WIND
ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED. I KEPT THE FORECAST DRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS GENERATING
SOME QPF IN LINCOLN COUNTY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS IS NOT REALLY
SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS. RIDGING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
COOLEST OF THE THREE DAYS ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH IN MOST
AREAS. A BIT OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE IS EXPECTED IN EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BUT GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY AS WE
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH PRESSURE AREA. MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF
SLOWER AND THE GFS REMAINING THE SAME. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE
INLINE WITH THE LATEST GFS AND TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THAT
DIRECTION.

WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD THE TROUGH AND SHOULD
BE STRONGEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. A FEW LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DOWNSLOPE
SIGNATURES ALONG THE SIERRA ON SATURDAY AND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY DROPPING TEMPERATURES 8 TO 12 DEGREES ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 14KFT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25KFT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
EAST WINDS 8 KTS OF LESS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST UP TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS MOST OF TUESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY WITH SCT-BKN 10-12KFT AND
FEW-SCT 12-14KFT ELSEWHERE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER
INYO...ESMERALDA...AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES 15-25 MPH WITH
POTENTIALLY HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING NORTHWEST
TUESDAY MORNING IN INYO AND NYE COUNTIES. MAINLY SOUTH WINDS 10-15
KTS THROUGH TUESDAY ELSEWHERE. STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY
ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...STUMPF

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER











000
FXUS65 KVEF 202206
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
305 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY PRODUCING LOCALLY BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
SOME CLOUD COVER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY WAS RESULTING IN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOHAVE
COUNTY BUT NO SHOWERS YET. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP THERE THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST WAS GENERATING
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
SOME CLOUD COVER. THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SIERRA TONIGHT BRINGING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES.
THE 12Z HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH WIND SPEEDS BOTH IN
THE BISHOP AND INDEPENDENCE AREAS. SO AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS A WIND
ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED. I KEPT THE FORECAST DRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS GENERATING
SOME QPF IN LINCOLN COUNTY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS IS NOT REALLY
SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS. RIDGING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
COOLEST OF THE THREE DAYS ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH IN MOST
AREAS. A BIT OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE IS EXPECTED IN EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BUT GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY AS WE
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH PRESSURE AREA. MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF
SLOWER AND THE GFS REMAINING THE SAME. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE
INLINE WITH THE LATEST GFS AND TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THAT
DIRECTION.

WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD THE TROUGH AND SHOULD
BE STRONGEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. A FEW LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DOWNSLOPE
SIGNATURES ALONG THE SIERRA ON SATURDAY AND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY DROPPING TEMPERATURES 8 TO 12 DEGREES ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 14KFT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25KFT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
EAST WINDS 8 KTS OF LESS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST UP TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS MOST OF TUESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY WITH SCT-BKN 10-12KFT AND
FEW-SCT 12-14KFT ELSEWHERE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER
INYO...ESMERALDA...AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES 15-25 MPH WITH
POTENTIALLY HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING NORTHWEST
TUESDAY MORNING IN INYO AND NYE COUNTIES. MAINLY SOUTH WINDS 10-15
KTS THROUGH TUESDAY ELSEWHERE. STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY
ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...STUMPF

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER












000
FXUS65 KVEF 202206
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
305 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY PRODUCING LOCALLY BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
SOME CLOUD COVER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY WAS RESULTING IN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOHAVE
COUNTY BUT NO SHOWERS YET. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP THERE THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST WAS GENERATING
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
SOME CLOUD COVER. THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SIERRA TONIGHT BRINGING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES.
THE 12Z HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH WIND SPEEDS BOTH IN
THE BISHOP AND INDEPENDENCE AREAS. SO AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS A WIND
ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED. I KEPT THE FORECAST DRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS GENERATING
SOME QPF IN LINCOLN COUNTY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS IS NOT REALLY
SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS. RIDGING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
COOLEST OF THE THREE DAYS ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH IN MOST
AREAS. A BIT OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE IS EXPECTED IN EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BUT GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY AS WE
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH PRESSURE AREA. MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF
SLOWER AND THE GFS REMAINING THE SAME. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE
INLINE WITH THE LATEST GFS AND TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THAT
DIRECTION.

WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD THE TROUGH AND SHOULD
BE STRONGEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. A FEW LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DOWNSLOPE
SIGNATURES ALONG THE SIERRA ON SATURDAY AND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY DROPPING TEMPERATURES 8 TO 12 DEGREES ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 14KFT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25KFT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
EAST WINDS 8 KTS OF LESS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST UP TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS MOST OF TUESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY WITH SCT-BKN 10-12KFT AND
FEW-SCT 12-14KFT ELSEWHERE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER
INYO...ESMERALDA...AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES 15-25 MPH WITH
POTENTIALLY HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING NORTHWEST
TUESDAY MORNING IN INYO AND NYE COUNTIES. MAINLY SOUTH WINDS 10-15
KTS THROUGH TUESDAY ELSEWHERE. STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY
ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...STUMPF

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER












000
FXUS65 KVEF 202206
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
305 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY PRODUCING LOCALLY BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
SOME CLOUD COVER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY WAS RESULTING IN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOHAVE
COUNTY BUT NO SHOWERS YET. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP THERE THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST WAS GENERATING
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
SOME CLOUD COVER. THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SIERRA TONIGHT BRINGING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES.
THE 12Z HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH WIND SPEEDS BOTH IN
THE BISHOP AND INDEPENDENCE AREAS. SO AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS A WIND
ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED. I KEPT THE FORECAST DRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS GENERATING
SOME QPF IN LINCOLN COUNTY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS IS NOT REALLY
SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS. RIDGING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
COOLEST OF THE THREE DAYS ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH IN MOST
AREAS. A BIT OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE IS EXPECTED IN EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BUT GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY AS WE
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH PRESSURE AREA. MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF
SLOWER AND THE GFS REMAINING THE SAME. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE
INLINE WITH THE LATEST GFS AND TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THAT
DIRECTION.

WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD THE TROUGH AND SHOULD
BE STRONGEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. A FEW LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DOWNSLOPE
SIGNATURES ALONG THE SIERRA ON SATURDAY AND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY DROPPING TEMPERATURES 8 TO 12 DEGREES ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 14KFT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25KFT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
EAST WINDS 8 KTS OF LESS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST UP TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS MOST OF TUESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY WITH SCT-BKN 10-12KFT AND
FEW-SCT 12-14KFT ELSEWHERE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER
INYO...ESMERALDA...AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES 15-25 MPH WITH
POTENTIALLY HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING NORTHWEST
TUESDAY MORNING IN INYO AND NYE COUNTIES. MAINLY SOUTH WINDS 10-15
KTS THROUGH TUESDAY ELSEWHERE. STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY
ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...STUMPF

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER











000
FXUS65 KVEF 201611
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
910 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND BRING ONE MORE DAY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOHAVE COUNTY BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. A
DEEPENING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA TODAY AND THROUGH NEVADA
ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY INDICATED BY
SOME MODELS OVER PORTIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
LEAVE A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTY. THE LATEST NMM RUN NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH DOWNSLOPE
WIND POTENTIAL TONIGHT FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES SO NOT INCLINED
AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY. NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS
MORNING. -HARRISON-
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
225 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO BRING
ONE MORE DAY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOHAVE COUNTY
BEFORE THIS LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST BY TUESDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AND WE HAVE KEPT
BASICALLY VERY SLIGHT CHANCES OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THE MAIN AREAS OF SEEING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
BE ACROSS INYO...ESMERALDA...AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES. ITS POSSIBLE
A FEW OF THE MORE WIND PRONE SITES COULD SEE WINDS REACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND NO ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO NEVADA
TONIGHT THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF SEEING SOME STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE EASTERN SIERRA BETWEEN 06Z-12Z TUESDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN AT THE MID AND UPPER SLOPES WITH WINDS APPROACHING 50KTS OR
SO. WINDS AT THE VALLEY FLOORS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER...BUT ITS
POSSIBLE SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY SURFACE AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA TUESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL
WASH OUT BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
WARMEST TODAY AND THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY WITH READINGS
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO REBUILD OVER
THE AREA. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO SEE A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION OF THE
HIGH...PLACING IT A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST /MORE OVER ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO/ THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. EVEN BEING MORE TO OUR
EAST...WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S AROUND THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND UPPER 90S PUSHING 100 DEGREES
FOR DEATH VALLEY...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE ALSO COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND SYSTEM EVOLUTION FOR THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE...BECOMING
BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SATURDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY COOLING A COUPLE
DEGREES FROM WHAT WE EXPERIENCE FRIDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY...BRINGING BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOISTURE
STARVED FOR OUR AREA...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIP AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 14KFT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN OVER MOHAVE
COUNTY. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 8 KTS THROUGH 17Z. WE COULD SEE SOME
EAST WINDS BETWEEN 17Z-23Z UP TO 7 KTS BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTH.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY WITH SCT-BKN 10-12KFT AND FEW-SCT
12-14KFT ELSEWHERE. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OVER
INYO...ESMERALDA...AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES TO SOUTHWEST 15-25 MPH
WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS
ELSEWHERE. STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY ALONG THE EASTERN
SIERRA SLOPES MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM...PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

















000
FXUS65 KVEF 201611
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
910 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND BRING ONE MORE DAY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOHAVE COUNTY BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. A
DEEPENING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA TODAY AND THROUGH NEVADA
ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY INDICATED BY
SOME MODELS OVER PORTIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
LEAVE A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTY. THE LATEST NMM RUN NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH DOWNSLOPE
WIND POTENTIAL TONIGHT FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES SO NOT INCLINED
AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY. NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS
MORNING. -HARRISON-
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
225 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO BRING
ONE MORE DAY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOHAVE COUNTY
BEFORE THIS LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST BY TUESDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AND WE HAVE KEPT
BASICALLY VERY SLIGHT CHANCES OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THE MAIN AREAS OF SEEING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
BE ACROSS INYO...ESMERALDA...AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES. ITS POSSIBLE
A FEW OF THE MORE WIND PRONE SITES COULD SEE WINDS REACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND NO ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO NEVADA
TONIGHT THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF SEEING SOME STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE EASTERN SIERRA BETWEEN 06Z-12Z TUESDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN AT THE MID AND UPPER SLOPES WITH WINDS APPROACHING 50KTS OR
SO. WINDS AT THE VALLEY FLOORS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER...BUT ITS
POSSIBLE SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY SURFACE AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA TUESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL
WASH OUT BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
WARMEST TODAY AND THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY WITH READINGS
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO REBUILD OVER
THE AREA. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO SEE A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION OF THE
HIGH...PLACING IT A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST /MORE OVER ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO/ THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. EVEN BEING MORE TO OUR
EAST...WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S AROUND THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND UPPER 90S PUSHING 100 DEGREES
FOR DEATH VALLEY...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE ALSO COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND SYSTEM EVOLUTION FOR THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE...BECOMING
BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SATURDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY COOLING A COUPLE
DEGREES FROM WHAT WE EXPERIENCE FRIDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY...BRINGING BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOISTURE
STARVED FOR OUR AREA...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIP AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 14KFT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN OVER MOHAVE
COUNTY. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 8 KTS THROUGH 17Z. WE COULD SEE SOME
EAST WINDS BETWEEN 17Z-23Z UP TO 7 KTS BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTH.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY WITH SCT-BKN 10-12KFT AND FEW-SCT
12-14KFT ELSEWHERE. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OVER
INYO...ESMERALDA...AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES TO SOUTHWEST 15-25 MPH
WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS
ELSEWHERE. STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY ALONG THE EASTERN
SIERRA SLOPES MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM...PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
















000
FXUS65 KVEF 200924
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
225 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND BRING ONE MORE DAY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOHAVE COUNTY BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. A
DEEPENING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA TODAY AND THROUGH NEVADA
ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO BRING
ONE MORE DAY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOHAVE COUNTY
BEFORE THIS LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST BY TUESDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AND WE HAVE KEPT
BASICALLY VERY SLIGHT CHANCES OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THE MAIN AREAS OF SEEING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
BE ACROSS INYO...ESMERALDA...AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES. ITS POSSIBLE
A FEW OF THE MORE WIND PRONE SITES COULD SEE WINDS REACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND NO ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO NEVADA
TONIGHT THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF SEEING SOME STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE EASTERN SIERRA BETWEEN 06Z-12Z TUESDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN AT THE MID AND UPPER SLOPES WITH WINDS APPROACHING 50KTS OR
SO. WINDS AT THE VALLEY FLOORS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER...BUT ITS
POSSIBLE SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY SURFACE AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA TUESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL
WASH OUT BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
WARMEST TODAY AND THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY WITH READINGS
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO REBUILD OVER
THE AREA. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO SEE A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION OF THE
HIGH...PLACING IT A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST /MORE OVER ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO/ THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. EVEN BEING MORE TO OUR
EAST...WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S AROUND THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND UPPER 90S PUSHING 100 DEGREES
FOR DEATH VALLEY...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE ALSO COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND SYSTEM EVOLUTION FOR THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE...BECOMING
BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SATURDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY COOLING A COUPLE
DEGREES FROM WHAT WE EXPERIENCE FRIDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY...BRINGING BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOISTURE
STARVED FOR OUR AREA...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIP AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 14KFT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN OVER MOHAVE
COUNTY. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 8 KTS THROUGH 17Z. WE COULD SEE SOME
EAST WINDS BETWEEN 17Z-23Z UP TO 7 KTS BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTH.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY WITH SCT-BKN 10-12KFT AND FEW-SCT
12-14KFT ELSEWHERE. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OVER
INYO...ESMERALDA...AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES TO SOUTHWEST 15-25 MPH
WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS
ELSEWHERE. STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY ALONG THE EASTERN
SIERRA SLOPES MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM...PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER













    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities