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000
FXUS65 KVEF 260410 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
910 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ENDING OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES COMING DOWN ABOUT TEN DEGREES BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE BEGINNING TO SETTLE DOWN BUT ARE
STILL GUSTING 20-30 MPH OVER A RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD AREA WITH
LOCALIZED GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH IN PORTIONS OF INYO...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NYE COUNTIES. THE ONLY ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT IS FOR
THE SIERRA, OWENS VALLEY AND SPRING MOUNTAIN ZONES THROUGH 5 AM
SUNDAY. A HIRES MODEL CROSS SECTION OVER THE SIERRA INDICATES MAYBE
AN HOUR OR TWO OF DOWNSLOPE WIND POTENTIAL LEFT WHILE ONE OVER THE
SPRING MOUNTAINS WOULD INDICATE A PEAK DOWNSLOPE WIND PERIOD FROM
ABOUT 11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 3 AM SUNDAY. THE FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY COULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN WIND
OVERNIGHT AS THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP ON THE EAST/NE SIDE OF THE
SPRING MTNS AND SPREAD INTO THE VALLEY. OTHER THAN WIND, A FEW MID
CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER PARTS OF THE AREA BUT PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE
WITHIN THE CWA IS UNLIKELY. PLAN TO LET THE CURRENT FORECAST RIDE
FOR NOW BUT WILL MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE LATER
UPDATES. -SALMEN-
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS AT THE AIRPORT HAVE GENERALLY
SETTLED INTO A TYPICAL DIURNAL SURFACE FLOW THIS EVENING WITH SPEEDS
UP TO 10 KTS AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE OVERNIGHT.
HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PERIOD OF NORTH WINDS MOVING
THROUGH THE TERMINAL SUNDAY MORNING AROUND 15-16Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH NOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BE EVALUATED FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WERE NOTED ON SATELLITE OVER NORTHWEST CLARK COUNTY BUT WILL REMAIN
OPERATIONALLY INSIGNIFICANT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY SUNDAY
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN MOJAVE DESERT...BUT
REMAIN SOUTHWEST TO WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOJAVE DESERT. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHERLY AREAWIDE ON MONDAY WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS AROUND
30 KNOTS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. NO OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...240 PM PDT...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE
GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH IN MUCH OF THE ADVISORY AREA THIS AFTERNOON SO
LEFT IT IN PLACE. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHERN ZONES
EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A LATE NIGHT PEAK POSSIBLE ON THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE EVENT ENDS AROUND SUNRISE.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH RENO BETWEEN NOON
AND 1 PM...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM 66 TO 51 IN TWO HOURS AND
WINDS GUSTING OVER 50 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL WORK
INTO THE NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT BUT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT COMES...SO
WINDS BEHIND IT SHOULD NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG IN OUR CWA AS IN THE
RENO AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BRING A WEAK WIND SHIFT INTO LAS
VEGAS AS EARLY AS NOON SUNDAY...SPREADING DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BE IN THE
FAVORED AREAS OF THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY...BUT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS LOOK UNLIKELY AS THE FORECAST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS UNIMPRESSIVE /11 MB ELY-EED/ AND UPPER SUPPORT IS WEAK TO
NONEXISTENT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
INTERCEPTED BY THE SIERRA...LEAVING OUR AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
COME DOWN ABOUT TEN DEGREES AREAWIDE FROM TODAY TO MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY. OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME SKIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
TROUGH STARTS TO DIG OFF THE WEST COAST. CHANGES WILL START BEING
SEEN BY FRIDAY AS WE INCREASE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND COOL
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE TROUGH MOVING INTO
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
AREA. MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE...BUT HOW MUCH MAKES IT
OVER THE SIERRA IS STILL IN QUESTION. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE SOME
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SIERRA...WHITE MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF ESMERALDA COUNTY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER REPORTS OF WIND WILL BE
NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

$$

MORGAN/GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER











000
FXUS65 KVEF 252140
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
240 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ENDING OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES COMING DOWN ABOUT TEN DEGREES BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE
GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH IN MUCH OF THE ADVISORY AREA THIS AFTERNOON SO
LEFT IT IN PLACE. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHERN ZONES
EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A LATE NIGHT PEAK POSSIBLE ON THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE EVENT ENDS AROUND SUNRISE.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH RENO BETWEEN NOON
AND 1 PM...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM 66 TO 51 IN TWO HOURS AND
WINDS GUSTING OVER 50 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL WORK
INTO THE NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT BUT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT COMES...SO
WINDS BEHIND IT SHOULD NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG IN OUR CWA AS IN THE
RENO AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BRING A WEAK WIND SHIFT INTO LAS
VEGAS AS EARLY AS NOON SUNDAY...SPREADING DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BE IN THE
FAVORED AREAS OF THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY...BUT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS LOOK UNLIKELY AS THE FORECAST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS UNIMPRESSIVE /11 MB ELY-EED/ AND UPPER SUPPORT IS WEAK TO
NONEXISTENT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
INTERCEPTED BY THE SIERRA...LEAVING OUR AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
COME DOWN ABOUT TEN DEGREES AREAWIDE FROM TODAY TO MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY. OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME SKIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
TROUGH STARTS TO DIG OFF THE WEST COAST. CHANGES WILL START BEING
SEEN BY FRIDAY AS WE INCREASE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND COOL
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE TROUGH MOVING INTO
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
AREA. MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE...BUT HOW MUCH MAKES IT
OVER THE SIERRA IS STILL IN QUESTION. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE SOME
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SIERRA...WHITE MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF ESMERALDA COUNTY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 10 KNOTS...BUT POSSIBLY STRONG
ENOUGH TO CAUSE RUNWAY CONFIGURATION ISSUES. NO OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY SUNDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN
MOJAVE DESERT...BUT REMAIN SOUTHWEST TO WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MOJAVE DESERT. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AREAWIDE ON MONDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. NO
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER REPORTS OF WIND WILL BE
NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

$$

MORGAN/GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KVEF 251617
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
917 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TODAY WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH WINDS INCREASING AS A TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES THEN REBOUNDING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...WINDS AND CLOUDS ARE BEHAVING ABOUT AS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING. NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
239 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS
AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION ABOUT 300 MILES OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS, IT IS FORECAST TO
OPEN UP, WEAKEN AND LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM STRETCHES FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA DOWN THROUGH
WASHINGTON, OREGON, THE NORTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA AND WELL OUT
INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. BUT SADLY, WE
ARE NOT EXPECTED ANYTHING OTHER THAN SOME ENHANCE CLOUD COVER. ALSO
THERE IS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST THIS
MORNING MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AND IT HAS BEEN GENERATING
SOME THIN CLOUD COVER THAT COULD BRING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TO
PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY. WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING GUSTY BY THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST TODAY, SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
WIND ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ZONES LATER
THIS MORNING AND BASED ON 00Z HIRES MODEL DATA, THERE IS NO NEED TO
EXPAND THE ADVISORY TO OTHER AREAS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA WITH DOWNSLOPE
WINDS PUSHING DOWN THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
OWENS VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA.

THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY, COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND IT
AND DROP SATURDAYS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DOWN SEVERAL
DEGREES SUNDAY AND THEN TO NORMAL OR BELOW ON MONDAY. THERE COULD BE
SOME ENHANCED FLOW IN NORTH WIND PRONE AREAS LIKE THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY BEHIND THE FRONT BUT MODELS SHOW NOTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS
TIME.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGING IS EXPECTED OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. STILL SEEING MODEL
DIFFERENCES BEGINNING THURSDAY WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A
PACIFIC TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA LONGER.
HOWEVER...NOT REALLY MUCH DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER EITHER
WAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IF THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS VERIFIES WINDS ON
FRIDAY COULD BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES A TOUCH
COOLER THAN FORECAST.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 8 KTS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...STIFF WINDS UP TO 15 KTS CONTINUE IN THE OWENS VALLEY
THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TOWARDS DAYBREAK BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING.
SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF LAS
VEGAS TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY BETWEEN 25-30 KTS ELSEWHERE.
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE MAY DEVELOP NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE SIERRA
CREST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT STRONG WIND AND DAMAGE REPORTS WILL BE NEEDED FROM SPOTTERS
TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&

$$

MORGAN/SALMEN/HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KVEF 250939
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
239 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TODAY WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH WINDS INCREASING AS A TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES THEN REBOUNDING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS
AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION ABOUT 300 MILES OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS, IT IS FORECAST TO
OPEN UP, WEAKEN AND LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM STRETCHES FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA DOWN THROUGH
WASHINGTON, OREGON, THE NORTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA AND WELL OUT
INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. BUT SADLY, WE
ARE NOT EXPECTED ANYTHING OTHER THAN SOME ENHANCE CLOUD COVER. ALSO
THERE IS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST THIS
MORNING MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AND IT HAS BEEN GENERATING
SOME THIN CLOUD COVER THAT COULD BRING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TO
PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY. WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING GUSTY BY THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST TODAY, SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
WIND ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ZONES LATER
THIS MORNING AND BASED ON 00Z HIRES MODEL DATA, THERE IS NO NEED TO
EXPAND THE ADVISORY TO OTHER AREAS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA WITH DOWNSLOPE
WINDS PUSHING DOWN THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
OWENS VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA.

THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY, COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND IT
AND DROP SATURDAYS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DOWN SEVERAL
DEGREES SUNDAY AND THEN TO NORMAL OR BELOW ON MONDAY. THERE COULD BE
SOME ENHANCED FLOW IN NORTH WIND PRONE AREAS LIKE THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY BEHIND THE FRONT BUT MODELS SHOW NOTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS
TIME.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGING IS EXPECTED OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. STILL SEEING MODEL
DIFFERENCES BEGINNING THURSDAY WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A
PACIFIC TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA LONGER.
HOWEVER...NOT REALLY MUCH DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER EITHER
WAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IF THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS VERIFIES WINDS ON
FRIDAY COULD BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES A TOUCH
COOLER THAN FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 8 KTS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...STIFF WINDS UP TO 15 KTS CONTINUE IN THE OWENS VALLEY
THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TOWARDS DAYBREAK BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING.
SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF LAS
VEGAS TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY BETWEEN 25-30 KTS ELSEWHERE.
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE MAY DEVELOP NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE SIERRA
CREST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT STRONG WIND AND DAMAGE REPORTS WILL BE NEEDED FROM SPOTTERS
TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&

$$

SALMEN/HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER















000
FXUS65 KVEF 250318 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
818 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. A
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...WARM CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT IN MOST AREAS BUT CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND
30 MPH IN THE OWENS VALLEY WHERE ENHANCED UPVALLEY FLOW CONTINUES.
SATELLITE SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE BAND OF CLOUDS OFF THE WEST COAST BUT
CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEE NO
IMMEDIATE CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.
-SALMEN-
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...334 PM PDT...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...CALM...CLEAR AND WARM
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN THE STORY TODAY AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED RAPID DEEPENING OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED PUSH A TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN
STATES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WE WILL
SEE A MARKED INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. MODELS CAME
IN A BIT STRONGER TODAY AND I ELECTED TO EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF LAS VEGAS. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARNING LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA...BUT WILL LEAVE THAT TO THE OVERNIGHT
SHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE ACROSS MOST
AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE SIERRA CREST AND PERHAPS THE
SPRING MOUNTAINS WHERE THE ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR SUNDAY EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE FANFARE EXCEPT A WIND SHIFT AND
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH. A NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER. ADDITIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED
MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF
MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS AND GEM AND CONSEQUENTLY WARMER. I KEPT
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN THE ECMWF DUE TO THE
FLATTER RIDGE THE OTHER MODELS ARE FORECASTING BUT STILL WARMING TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS MOVE THE RIDGE AXIS EAST
THURSDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. HOWEVER THERE IS NOT GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HOW FAR EAST THIS TROUGH PROGRESSES. I BASICALLY WENT
WITH THE GFS WHICH IS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD...KEEPING THE TROUGH
OFFSHORE WITH SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA. THE
RESULT IS MINIMAL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AND
SOME SOUTHERLY BREEZES STARTING TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. &&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT EAST WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 8 KTS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS RETURN TO A TYPICAL
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHEAST
WINDS UP TO 10 KTS BETWEEN 00Z-03Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE TERMINAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER
20`S POSSIBLE.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...OUTSIDE OF THE OWENS VALLEY WHERE WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO
AROUND 30 KTS WINDS HAVE REMAINED UNDER ABOUT 15 KTS TODAY.
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF LAS VEGAS WHERE WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MECHANICAL TURBULENCE MAY DEVELOP
NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH TODAY BUT REPORTS OF STRONG WIND SPEEDS AND/OR DAMAGE WILL
BE NEEDED FROM SPOTTERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER












000
FXUS65 KVEF 242234
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
334 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. A
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...CALM...CLEAR AND WARM
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN THE STORY TODAY AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED RAPID DEEPENING OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED PUSH A TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN
STATES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WE WILL
SEE A MARKED INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. MODELS CAME
IN A BIT STRONGER TODAY AND I ELECTED TO EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF LAS VEGAS. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARNING LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA...BUT WILL LEAVE THAT TO THE OVERNIGHT
SHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE ACROSS MOST
AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE SIERRA CREST AND PERHAPS THE
SPRING MOUNTAINS WHERE THE ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR SUNDAY EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE FANFARE EXCEPT A WIND SHIFT AND
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH. A NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER. ADDITIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED
MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF
MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS AND GEM AND CONSEQUENTLY WARMER. I KEPT
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN THE ECMWF DUE TO THE
FLATTER RIDGE THE OTHER MODELS ARE FORECASTING BUT STILL WARMING TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS MOVE THE RIDGE AXIS EAST
THURSDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. HOWEVER THERE IS NOT GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HOW FAR EAST THIS TROUGH PROGRESSES. I BASICALLY WENT
WITH THE GFS WHICH IS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD...KEEPING THE TROUGH
OFFSHORE WITH SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA. THE
RESULT IS MINIMAL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AND
SOME SOUTHERLY BREEZES STARTING TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. &&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT EAST WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 8 KTS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS RETURN TO A TYPICAL
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHEAST
WINDS UP TO 10 KTS BETWEEN 00Z-03Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE TERMINAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER
20`S POSSIBLE.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...OUTSIDE OF THE OWENS VALLEY WHERE WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO
AROUND 30 KTS WINDS HAVE REMAINED UNDER ABOUT 15 KTS TODAY.
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF LAS VEGAS WHERE WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MECHANICAL TURBULENCE MAY DEVELOP NEAR
AND JUST EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
ALONG WITH SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH TODAY BUT REPORTS OF STRONG WIND SPEEDS AND/OR DAMAGE WILL
BE NEEDED FROM SPOTTERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KVEF 241819
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1119 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE TODAY AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
ACROSS THE REGION. A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING AND NO UPDATES PLANNED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT EAST WINDS UNDER 10 KTS INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE WINDS RETURN TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN
00Z-03Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. STRONGER
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 25K FT ACROSS THE NORTH WILL SHIFT
EAST LEAVING BEHIND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT/FRIDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10KTS NEAR THE AIRFIELDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE KBIH WHERE STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 234 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY
AROUND 10 MPH IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND 10
TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT IN THE
OWENS VALLEY WHERE GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST TONIGHT AND EFFECTS WILL
BEGIN TO BE FELT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA RIDGETOPS AND ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES WHERE GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS FORECAST
THE LOW OPENING UP AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN IT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS AN OPEN WAVE. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH DOWNSLOPE
WINDS PUSHING ONTO THE LOWER EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE OWENS VALLEY. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THESE AREAS. BASED ON LOCAL HIRES MODEL DATA, THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS NYE COUNTY AND THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AS WELL BUT THERE REMAINS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
THAT A DECISION ON WHETHER TO ISSUE ANYTHING FOR THOSE AREAS WILL BE
PASSED ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE SATURDAY
EVENING IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT GUSTY CONDITIONS COULD LINGER THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SPRING MOUNTAINS.

ONCE THE THROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA, COOLER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS...WHICH HAPPENS TO BE 76 DEGREES IN LAS VEGAS.
THERE COULD BE A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY BUT FOR THE MOST PART, MODELS AGREE THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH. A NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER. ADDITIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED
MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF
MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS AND GEM AND CONSEQUENTLY WARMER. I KEPT
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN THE ECMWF DUE TO THE
FLATTER RIDGE THE OTHER MODELS ARE FORECASTING BUT STILL WARMING TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS MOVE THE RIDGE AXIS EAST
THURSDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. HOWEVER THERE IS NOT GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HOW FAR EAST THIS TROUGH PROGRESSES. I BASICALLY WENT
WITH THE GFS WHICH IS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD...KEEPING THE TROUGH
OFFSHORE WITH SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA. THE
RESULT IS MINIMAL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AND
SOME SOUTHERLY BREEZES STARTING TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH TODAY BUT REPORTS OF STRONG WIND SPEEDS AND/OR DAMAGE WILL
BE NEEDED FROM INYO COUNTY SPOTTERS ON SATURDAY.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
PREV DICUSSION...SALMEN/HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KVEF 240934
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
234 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE TODAY AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
ACROSS THE REGION. A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY
AROUND 10 MPH IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND 10
TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT IN THE
OWENS VALLEY WHERE GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST TONIGHT AND EFFECTS WILL
BEGIN TO BE FELT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA RIDGETOPS AND ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES WHERE GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS FORECAST
THE LOW OPENING UP AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN IT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS AN OPEN WAVE. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH DOWNSLOPE
WINDS PUSHING ONTO THE LOWER EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE OWENS VALLEY. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THESE AREAS. BASED ON LOCAL HIRES MODEL DATA, THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS NYE COUNTY AND THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AS WELL BUT THERE REMAINS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
THAT A DECISION ON WHETHER TO ISSUE ANYTHING FOR THOSE AREAS WILL BE
PASSED ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE SATURDAY
EVENING IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT GUSTY CONDITIONS COULD LINGER THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SPRING MOUNTAINS.

ONCE THE THROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA, COOLER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS...WHICH HAPPENS TO BE 76 DEGREES IN LAS VEGAS.
THERE COULD BE A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY BUT FOR THE MOST PART, MODELS AGREE THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH. A NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER. ADDITIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED
MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF
MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS AND GEM AND CONSEQUENTLY WARMER. I KEPT
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN THE ECMWF DUE TO THE
FLATTER RIDGE THE OTHER MODELS ARE FORECASTING BUT STILL WARMING TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS MOVE THE RIDGE AXIS EAST
THURSDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. HOWEVER THERE IS NOT GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HOW FAR EAST THIS TROUGH PROGRESSES. I BASICALLY WENT
WITH THE GFS WHICH IS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD...KEEPING THE TROUGH
OFFSHORE WITH SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA. THE
RESULT IS MINIMAL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AND
SOME SOUTHERLY BREEZES STARTING TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z
THEN BECOMING LIGHT. WINDS WILL AGAIN FAVOR A LIGHT EASTERLY
COMPONENT IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEASTERLY LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 6-11 KTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10
KTS RETURN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10KTS NEAR THE
AIRFIELDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THEN 10-15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE AT KBIH WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH TODAY BUT REPORTS OF STRONG WIND SPEEDS AND/OR DAMAGE WILL
BE NEEDED FROM INYO COUNTY SPOTTERS ON SATURDAY.
&&

$$

SALMEN/HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER













000
FXUS65 KVEF 240326 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
826 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. A TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND
COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN OUT.
ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS. NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. -SALMEN-
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...240 PM PDT...

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE
THIS EXTENDED STRETCH OF WARM/DRY WEATHER THROUGH TOMORROW.
STANDING WAVE CLOUD OVER INYO/ESMERALDA COUNTIES IN THE PROCESS OF
DISSIPATING AS WINDS ALOFT BACK TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH
SHOULD MAKE FOR A CLEAR NIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL, HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AREAWIDE. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES
AND OWENS VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPE WIND POTENTIAL EXISTS. WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 5 AM SUNDAY
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR/BELOW CANYON OPENINGS BUT
STRONG CROSSWINDS MAY IMPACT HIGHWAY 395 BETWEEN OLANCHA AND THE
MONO COUNTY LINE. STILL LOOKING AT A WEAKER DOWNSLOPE EVENT IN THE
LEE OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. TROUGH PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY
BUT DID KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
CREST SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING 10-15 DEGREES AROUND BISHOP AND GOLDFIELD. ELSEWHERE,
READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER OR BE NEAR NORMAL. A
SOUTHWEST-WEST BREEZE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA WHILE NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT
IN CENTRAL NEVADA. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN PUSH OF NORTH WINDS DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING IN LAS VEGAS, WITH NORTH WINDS
INCREASING DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

AS PACIFIC TROUGH DEPARTS TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WILL RESIDE IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
AVERAGING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. EASTERN
PACIFIC RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK
WITH HEIGHTS RISING CONSIDERABLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK.

DESPITE THE RIDGING...OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK AS DISTURBANCES BRUSH TO OUR NORTH AND SEND SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...EAST WIND AT OR LESS THAN 7 KTS INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE WINDS RETURN TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. ON FRIDAY, THE WIND WILL FAVOR A LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEASTERLY WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 6-11 KTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 25K FT ACROSS THE NORTH WILL SHIFT
EAST LEAVING BEHIND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT/FRIDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10KTS NEAR THE AIRFIELDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE KBIH WHERE STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. SPOTTER REPORTS OF WIND SPEEDS OR DAMAGE WILL BE
NEEDED FROM INYO COUNTY SATURDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE
LONG TERM...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER










000
FXUS65 KVEF 240326 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
826 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. A TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND
COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN OUT.
ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS. NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. -SALMEN-
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...240 PM PDT...

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE
THIS EXTENDED STRETCH OF WARM/DRY WEATHER THROUGH TOMORROW.
STANDING WAVE CLOUD OVER INYO/ESMERALDA COUNTIES IN THE PROCESS OF
DISSIPATING AS WINDS ALOFT BACK TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH
SHOULD MAKE FOR A CLEAR NIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL, HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AREAWIDE. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES
AND OWENS VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPE WIND POTENTIAL EXISTS. WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 5 AM SUNDAY
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR/BELOW CANYON OPENINGS BUT
STRONG CROSSWINDS MAY IMPACT HIGHWAY 395 BETWEEN OLANCHA AND THE
MONO COUNTY LINE. STILL LOOKING AT A WEAKER DOWNSLOPE EVENT IN THE
LEE OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. TROUGH PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY
BUT DID KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
CREST SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING 10-15 DEGREES AROUND BISHOP AND GOLDFIELD. ELSEWHERE,
READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER OR BE NEAR NORMAL. A
SOUTHWEST-WEST BREEZE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA WHILE NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT
IN CENTRAL NEVADA. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN PUSH OF NORTH WINDS DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING IN LAS VEGAS, WITH NORTH WINDS
INCREASING DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

AS PACIFIC TROUGH DEPARTS TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WILL RESIDE IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
AVERAGING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. EASTERN
PACIFIC RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK
WITH HEIGHTS RISING CONSIDERABLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK.

DESPITE THE RIDGING...OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK AS DISTURBANCES BRUSH TO OUR NORTH AND SEND SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...EAST WIND AT OR LESS THAN 7 KTS INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE WINDS RETURN TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. ON FRIDAY, THE WIND WILL FAVOR A LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEASTERLY WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 6-11 KTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 25K FT ACROSS THE NORTH WILL SHIFT
EAST LEAVING BEHIND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT/FRIDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10KTS NEAR THE AIRFIELDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE KBIH WHERE STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. SPOTTER REPORTS OF WIND SPEEDS OR DAMAGE WILL BE
NEEDED FROM INYO COUNTY SATURDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE
LONG TERM...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER










000
FXUS65 KVEF 232141
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
240 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. A TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND
COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE
THIS EXTENDED STRETCH OF WARM/DRY WEATHER THROUGH TOMORROW.
STANDING WAVE CLOUD OVER INYO/ESMERALDA COUNTIES IN THE PROCESS OF
DISSIPATING AS WINDS ALOFT BACK TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH
SHOULD MAKE FOR A CLEAR NIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL, HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AREAWIDE. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES
AND OWENS VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPE WIND POTENTIAL EXISTS. WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 5 AM SUNDAY
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR/BELOW CANYON OPENINGS BUT
STRONG CROSSWINDS MAY IMPACT HIGHWAY 395 BETWEEN OLANCHA AND THE
MONO COUNTY LINE. STILL LOOKING AT A WEAKER DOWNSLOPE EVENT IN THE
LEE OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. TROUGH PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY
BUT DID KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
CREST SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING 10-15 DEGREES AROUND BISHOP AND GOLDFIELD. ELSEWHERE,
READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER OR BE NEAR NORMAL. A
SOUTHWEST-WEST BREEZE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA WHILE NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT
IN CENTRAL NEVADA. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN PUSH OF NORTH WINDS DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING IN LAS VEGAS, WITH NORTH WINDS
INCREASING DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

AS PACIFIC TROUGH DEPARTS TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WILL RESIDE IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
AVERAGING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. EASTERN
PACIFIC RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK
WITH HEIGHTS RISING CONSIDERABLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK.

DESPITE THE RIDGING...OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK AS DISTURBANCES BRUSH TO OUR NORTH AND SEND SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...EAST WIND AT OR LESS THAN 7 KTS INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE WINDS RETURN TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. ON FRIDAY, THE WIND WILL FAVOR A LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEASTERLY WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 6-11 KTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 25K FT ACROSS THE NORTH WILL SHIFT
EAST LEAVING BEHIND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT/FRIDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10KTS NEAR THE AIRFIELDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE KBIH WHERE STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. SPOTTER REPORTS OF WIND SPEEDS OR DAMAGE WILL BE
NEEDED FROM INYO COUNTY SATURDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE
LONG TERM...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 232141
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
240 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. A TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND
COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE
THIS EXTENDED STRETCH OF WARM/DRY WEATHER THROUGH TOMORROW.
STANDING WAVE CLOUD OVER INYO/ESMERALDA COUNTIES IN THE PROCESS OF
DISSIPATING AS WINDS ALOFT BACK TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH
SHOULD MAKE FOR A CLEAR NIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL, HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AREAWIDE. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES
AND OWENS VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPE WIND POTENTIAL EXISTS. WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 5 AM SUNDAY
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR/BELOW CANYON OPENINGS BUT
STRONG CROSSWINDS MAY IMPACT HIGHWAY 395 BETWEEN OLANCHA AND THE
MONO COUNTY LINE. STILL LOOKING AT A WEAKER DOWNSLOPE EVENT IN THE
LEE OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. TROUGH PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY
BUT DID KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
CREST SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING 10-15 DEGREES AROUND BISHOP AND GOLDFIELD. ELSEWHERE,
READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER OR BE NEAR NORMAL. A
SOUTHWEST-WEST BREEZE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA WHILE NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT
IN CENTRAL NEVADA. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN PUSH OF NORTH WINDS DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING IN LAS VEGAS, WITH NORTH WINDS
INCREASING DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

AS PACIFIC TROUGH DEPARTS TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WILL RESIDE IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
AVERAGING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. EASTERN
PACIFIC RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK
WITH HEIGHTS RISING CONSIDERABLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK.

DESPITE THE RIDGING...OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK AS DISTURBANCES BRUSH TO OUR NORTH AND SEND SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...EAST WIND AT OR LESS THAN 7 KTS INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE WINDS RETURN TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. ON FRIDAY, THE WIND WILL FAVOR A LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEASTERLY WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 6-11 KTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 25K FT ACROSS THE NORTH WILL SHIFT
EAST LEAVING BEHIND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT/FRIDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10KTS NEAR THE AIRFIELDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE KBIH WHERE STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. SPOTTER REPORTS OF WIND SPEEDS OR DAMAGE WILL BE
NEEDED FROM INYO COUNTY SATURDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE
LONG TERM...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 231630 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
928 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. A TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND
COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH THIS UPDATE. SATELLITE
SHOWS STANDING WAVE CLOUD DOWNWIND OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
OVER INYO/ESMERALDA COUNTIES THEN SPREADING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NYE
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD
TODAY/TONIGHT UPPER WINDS WILL TRANSITION SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE STANDING WAVE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE. NO OTHER CHANGES
NECESSARY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
155 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

A COUPLE MORE QUIET WEATHER DAYS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN. OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING, THE SKY WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT OVERALL THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL WARM TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

CHANGES BEGIN SATURDAY AS MODELS BRING TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA TODAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AND SWING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. THE LATEST NAM ACTUALLY GENERATES LIGHT QPF OVER THE
MOJAVE DESERT AND UP INTO LINCOLN COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. THIS SOLUTION IS THE OUTLIER AT THE
MOMENT AS THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS
BRUSHING NORTHWEST ARIZONA. THE TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY
NIGHT RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. A HIRES MODEL SHOWS A
POSSIBLE DOWNSLOPE EVENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES
SATURDAY BUT KEEPS IT ANCHORED TO THE MID AND UPPER SLOPES WITH NO
HINT OF STRONGER WINDS MAKING IT ONTO THE LOWER SLOPES OR INTO THE
OWENS VALLEY. WILL MONITOR THE TROUGHS DEVELOPMENT AND APPROACH
TRACK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO SEE IF IT WILL BRING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE AREA REMAINING
UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUNDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...WITH RIDGING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES. THE WESTERN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA.
LOWER HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT AND SOME INCREASING CLOUDS WILL COOL US
DOWN ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES FROM WHAT WE EXPERIENCE SATURDAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...LATE SUNDAY
ACROSS OUR NORTH AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES MONDAY AS THE FRONT
WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKES
HOLD. SOME BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...PARTICULARLY
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING...WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS FOR
WEDNESDAY. WILL USE A BALANCED BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
COMBINE WITH THE NAEFS MEAN. THIS WILL KEEP US UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND PROVIDE SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS AS TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AGAIN TODAY BUT
MAY FAVOR A LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FROM THE EAST TO FORCE A CONFIGURATION CHANGE.
WINDS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THIS EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BESIDES BKN CIRRUS AOA 25K FT ACROSS THE NORTH...CLEAR
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 10KTS NEAR THE AIRFIELDS THROUGH THIS EVENING EXCEPT KBIH
COULD SEE OCCASIONAL STRONGER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PIERCE
SALMEN/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER










000
FXUS65 KVEF 230855
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
155 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. A TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND
COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

A COUPLE MORE QUIET WEATHER DAYS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN. OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING, THE SKY WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT OVERALL THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL WARM TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

CHANGES BEGIN SATURDAY AS MODELS BRING TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA TODAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AND SWING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. THE LATEST NAM ACTUALLY GENERATES LIGHT QPF OVER THE
MOJAVE DESERT AND UP INTO LINCOLN COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. THIS SOLUTION IS THE OUTLIER AT THE
MOMENT AS THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS
BRUSHING NORTHWEST ARIZONA. THE TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY
NIGHT RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. A HIRES MODEL SHOWS A
POSSIBLE DOWNSLOPE EVENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES
SATURDAY BUT KEEPS IT ANCHORED TO THE MID AND UPPER SLOPES WITH NO
HINT OF STRONGER WINDS MAKING IT ONTO THE LOWER SLOPES OR INTO THE
OWENS VALLEY. WILL MONITOR THE TROUGHS DEVELOPMENT AND APPROACH
TRACK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO SEE IF IT WILL BRING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE AREA REMAINING
UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUNDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...WITH RIDGING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES. THE WESTERN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA.
LOWER HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT AND SOME INCREASING CLOUDS WILL COOL US
DOWN ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES FROM WHAT WE EXPERIENCE SATURDAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...LATE SUNDAY
ACROSS OUR NORTH AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES MONDAY AS THE FRONT
WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKES
HOLD. SOME BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...PARTICULARLY
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING...WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS FOR
WEDNESDAY. WILL USE A BALANCED BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
COMBINE WITH THE NAEFS MEAN. THIS WILL KEEP US UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND PROVIDE SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS AS TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 8 KTS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THEN BECOME LIGHT BY 16Z. AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BESIDES SCT CIRRUS AOA 25K FT ACROSS THE NORTH...CLEAR
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 10KTS NEAR THE AIRFIELDS THROUGH THIS EVENING EXCEPT KBIH
COULD SEE OCCASIONAL STRONGER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SALMEN/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







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