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000
FXUS65 KVEF 211545
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
845 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY CAUSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA BY THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE
COMING WEEK FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...
AN AIRCRAFT SOUNDING AT 1445Z INTO MCCARRAN IS AN EXTREMELY CLOSE
MATCH WITH THE NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDING FOR 15Z. LOOKING AT THE NAM12
TRENDS AS WELL AS THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE RAP AND HRRR...THE
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY TODAY TO BE ACROSS LINCOLN AND NORTHERN
MOHAVE. WE CAN STILL SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN
CLARK...NYE...ESMERALDA...AND THE SIERRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DRYING OUT. THE LATEST RAP...HRRR...AND 4KM NAM SHOW OUR
FORECAST AREA DRYING OUT QUITE RAPIDLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SO WE MIGHT NOT HAVE MUCH ACTIVITY...EVEN IN LINCOLN
COUNTY...BY ABOUT 5 PM OR SO.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
408 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RECENT SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AT 10Z AND THE
SYSTEM WAS PROGRESSIVELY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. CONVECTION ALONG
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP
ACROSS LINCOLN...NORTHEAST CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS
MORNING WHILE DRIER SOUTHWEST SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF CLARK
COUNTY AND AREAS TO THE WEST SOUTH SHOULD SHUT DOWN THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL AND THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS REMOVED.
WE SHOULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INYO...ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES AS THESE ZONES WILL BE
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW. DRY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF A DEEP EASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL COME INTO PLAY DURING THIS PERIOD THOUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS PROGRESSION AND DEPTH SO
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW. HOWEVER...IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE
WEEK AS THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS WILL
STIR UP BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA.
THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE ECMWF
CLOSES OFF AND SLOWS UP THE LOW SATURDAY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. IT
ALSO DEPICTS MORE QPF OVER EASTERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THAN
THE GFS. POPS WERE RAISED FOR LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES SLIGHTLY
SATURDAY TO ADD SOME OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION INFLUENCE. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION IS SOMEWHAT LOW...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT THIS WILL USHER IN THE FEEL OF FALL WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT REGION
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY WILL BRING DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO
THE TERMINAL AREA WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND
10-12 KFT. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 8-10 KTS BEFORE BECOME SOUTHWEST THIS EARLY THIS
EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN AN ARC FROM THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL DECREASE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PADDOCK
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 211545
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
845 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY CAUSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA BY THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE
COMING WEEK FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...
AN AIRCRAFT SOUNDING AT 1445Z INTO MCCARRAN IS AN EXTREMELY CLOSE
MATCH WITH THE NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDING FOR 15Z. LOOKING AT THE NAM12
TRENDS AS WELL AS THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE RAP AND HRRR...THE
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY TODAY TO BE ACROSS LINCOLN AND NORTHERN
MOHAVE. WE CAN STILL SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN
CLARK...NYE...ESMERALDA...AND THE SIERRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DRYING OUT. THE LATEST RAP...HRRR...AND 4KM NAM SHOW OUR
FORECAST AREA DRYING OUT QUITE RAPIDLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SO WE MIGHT NOT HAVE MUCH ACTIVITY...EVEN IN LINCOLN
COUNTY...BY ABOUT 5 PM OR SO.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
408 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RECENT SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AT 10Z AND THE
SYSTEM WAS PROGRESSIVELY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. CONVECTION ALONG
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP
ACROSS LINCOLN...NORTHEAST CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS
MORNING WHILE DRIER SOUTHWEST SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF CLARK
COUNTY AND AREAS TO THE WEST SOUTH SHOULD SHUT DOWN THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL AND THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS REMOVED.
WE SHOULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INYO...ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES AS THESE ZONES WILL BE
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW. DRY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF A DEEP EASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL COME INTO PLAY DURING THIS PERIOD THOUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS PROGRESSION AND DEPTH SO
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW. HOWEVER...IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE
WEEK AS THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS WILL
STIR UP BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA.
THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE ECMWF
CLOSES OFF AND SLOWS UP THE LOW SATURDAY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. IT
ALSO DEPICTS MORE QPF OVER EASTERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THAN
THE GFS. POPS WERE RAISED FOR LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES SLIGHTLY
SATURDAY TO ADD SOME OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION INFLUENCE. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION IS SOMEWHAT LOW...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT THIS WILL USHER IN THE FEEL OF FALL WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT REGION
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY WILL BRING DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO
THE TERMINAL AREA WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND
10-12 KFT. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 8-10 KTS BEFORE BECOME SOUTHWEST THIS EARLY THIS
EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN AN ARC FROM THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL DECREASE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PADDOCK
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KVEF 211108
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
408 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY CAUSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA BY THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE
COMING WEEK FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RECENT SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AT 10Z AND THE
SYSTEM WAS PROGRESSIVELY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. CONVECTION ALONG
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP
ACROSS LINCOLN...NORTHEAST CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS
MORNING WHILE DRIER SOUTHWEST SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF CLARK
COUNTY AND AREAS TO THE WEST SOUTH SHOULD SHUT DOWN THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL AND THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS REMOVED.
WE SHOULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INYO...ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES AS THESE ZONES WILL BE
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW. DRY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF A DEEP EASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL COME INTO PLAY DURING THIS PERIOD THOUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS PROGRESSION AND DEPTH SO
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW. HOWEVER...IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE
WEEK AS THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS WILL
STIR UP BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA.
THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE ECMWF
CLOSES OFF AND SLOWS UP THE LOW SATURDAY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. IT
ALSO DEPICTS MORE QPF OVER EASTERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THAN
THE GFS. POPS WERE RAISED FOR LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES SLIGHTLY
SATURDAY TO ADD SOME OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION INFLUENCE. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION IS SOMEWHAT LOW...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT THIS WILL USHER IN THE FEEL OF FALL WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT REGION
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY WILL BRING DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO
THE TERMINAL AREA WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND
10-12 KFT. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 8-10 KTS BEFORE BECOME SOUTHWEST THIS EARLY THIS
EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN AN ARC FROM THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL DECREASE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KVEF 211108
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
408 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY CAUSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA BY THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE
COMING WEEK FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RECENT SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AT 10Z AND THE
SYSTEM WAS PROGRESSIVELY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. CONVECTION ALONG
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP
ACROSS LINCOLN...NORTHEAST CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS
MORNING WHILE DRIER SOUTHWEST SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF CLARK
COUNTY AND AREAS TO THE WEST SOUTH SHOULD SHUT DOWN THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL AND THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS REMOVED.
WE SHOULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INYO...ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES AS THESE ZONES WILL BE
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW. DRY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF A DEEP EASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL COME INTO PLAY DURING THIS PERIOD THOUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS PROGRESSION AND DEPTH SO
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW. HOWEVER...IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE
WEEK AS THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS WILL
STIR UP BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA.
THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE ECMWF
CLOSES OFF AND SLOWS UP THE LOW SATURDAY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. IT
ALSO DEPICTS MORE QPF OVER EASTERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THAN
THE GFS. POPS WERE RAISED FOR LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES SLIGHTLY
SATURDAY TO ADD SOME OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION INFLUENCE. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION IS SOMEWHAT LOW...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT THIS WILL USHER IN THE FEEL OF FALL WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT REGION
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY WILL BRING DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO
THE TERMINAL AREA WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND
10-12 KFT. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 8-10 KTS BEFORE BECOME SOUTHWEST THIS EARLY THIS
EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN AN ARC FROM THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL DECREASE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 210405 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
905 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CIRCULATING NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PULL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING PLACING
MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER REGION OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THERE HAVE BEEN
THREE DISTINCT LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE AREA SINCE
AFTERNOON. MOST INTENSE LINE AT THIS HOUR CONTINUES TO BE LINE
RUNNING NEAR/ALONG HIGHWAY 93 FROM IN LINCOLN COUNTY SOUTH INTO
NORTHEAST LAS VEGAS VALLEY. OTHER LINE OVER SOUTHWEST INYO COUNTY
AND THE ONE FROM NEAR TONOPAH SOUTH TO DEATH VALLEY NATL PARK HAVE
SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING. WILL BE MONITORING SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AROUND LAS VEGAS FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. LINCOLN COUNTY WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE GUN THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR PRESENTLY OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY GRADUALLY
SPREADS NORTH. FORECAST LOOKS FINE THE REST OF TONIGHT/SUNDAY. NO
UPDATE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL AFFECT THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY THROUGH 05Z-06Z THIS EVENING WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
...GUSTING AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES. BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO THE TYPICAL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10
KTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT VALLEY TERMINALS
INTO LATE EVENING. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MOST EXTENSIVE IN
BEATTY...PEACH SPRINGS...AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS. BKN-OVC CLOUDS
WILL GENERALLY HAVE BASES 8-10 KFT BUT WILL LIKELY LOWER TO AROUND 6
KFT NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CLEARING TREND WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWERING CLOUDS BASES WILL
LEAD TO MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT LIKELY. A CLEARING TREND
WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY.
&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...
245 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE LAST FEW DAYS OVER THE
WESTERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS STARTING TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WILL
CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE MONDAY.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA...WRAPPING
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AREA PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1 INCH
IN OUR NORTHWEST TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR NEEDLES
ARE FORECAST BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE HEAVY RAIN. AREA
AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER
1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE AVERAGE STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 20
MPH OR SO...WITH STORMS MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. THIS
MOTION WOULD GENERALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TIME ANY ONE CELL IS OVER
ONE PARTICULAR AREA. HOWEVER...THERE CAN BE SOME ISOLATED AREAS
WHERE REDEVELOPMENT OR TRAINING CONVECTION FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME MAY WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING HERE AND
THERE. WITH WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH PRODUCTS BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 45 MPH AS WELL AS SOME HAIL. SO PLEASE KEEP ALERT OF
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PARTICULARLY
IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE A NORTHEAST TRACK ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT NORTH...WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING INTO OUR CALIFORNIA AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SO...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AIR
PUSHING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING PACIFIC TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST.
OVERALL, DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED TRENDING THE FORECAST WITH
THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT THE ECMWF GIVEN ITS AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS REGARDING A
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE GFS BRINGS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE AROUND THE BASE OF A PACIFIC TROUGH AND INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OCCURRING ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES. THE GFS SOLUTION LIFTS
THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
THEN PUSHING INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA FRIDAY. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT, THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA FRIDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AGAIN OVER THE DESERTS BUT
COOLING CONDITIONS OVER INYO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
COOLER WEATHER WOULD THEN BE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS ON SATURDAY DUE TO
THE LOCATION OF THE LOW SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES THIS INTO
ACCOUNT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED REGIONS OF
THE LOW WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA, THE NORTHERN CWA AND
MOHAVE COUNTY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 210405 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
905 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CIRCULATING NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PULL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING PLACING
MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER REGION OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THERE HAVE BEEN
THREE DISTINCT LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE AREA SINCE
AFTERNOON. MOST INTENSE LINE AT THIS HOUR CONTINUES TO BE LINE
RUNNING NEAR/ALONG HIGHWAY 93 FROM IN LINCOLN COUNTY SOUTH INTO
NORTHEAST LAS VEGAS VALLEY. OTHER LINE OVER SOUTHWEST INYO COUNTY
AND THE ONE FROM NEAR TONOPAH SOUTH TO DEATH VALLEY NATL PARK HAVE
SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING. WILL BE MONITORING SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AROUND LAS VEGAS FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. LINCOLN COUNTY WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE GUN THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR PRESENTLY OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY GRADUALLY
SPREADS NORTH. FORECAST LOOKS FINE THE REST OF TONIGHT/SUNDAY. NO
UPDATE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL AFFECT THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY THROUGH 05Z-06Z THIS EVENING WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
...GUSTING AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES. BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO THE TYPICAL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10
KTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT VALLEY TERMINALS
INTO LATE EVENING. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MOST EXTENSIVE IN
BEATTY...PEACH SPRINGS...AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS. BKN-OVC CLOUDS
WILL GENERALLY HAVE BASES 8-10 KFT BUT WILL LIKELY LOWER TO AROUND 6
KFT NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CLEARING TREND WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWERING CLOUDS BASES WILL
LEAD TO MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT LIKELY. A CLEARING TREND
WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY.
&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...
245 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE LAST FEW DAYS OVER THE
WESTERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS STARTING TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WILL
CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE MONDAY.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA...WRAPPING
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AREA PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1 INCH
IN OUR NORTHWEST TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR NEEDLES
ARE FORECAST BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE HEAVY RAIN. AREA
AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER
1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE AVERAGE STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 20
MPH OR SO...WITH STORMS MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. THIS
MOTION WOULD GENERALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TIME ANY ONE CELL IS OVER
ONE PARTICULAR AREA. HOWEVER...THERE CAN BE SOME ISOLATED AREAS
WHERE REDEVELOPMENT OR TRAINING CONVECTION FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME MAY WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING HERE AND
THERE. WITH WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH PRODUCTS BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 45 MPH AS WELL AS SOME HAIL. SO PLEASE KEEP ALERT OF
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PARTICULARLY
IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE A NORTHEAST TRACK ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT NORTH...WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING INTO OUR CALIFORNIA AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SO...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AIR
PUSHING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING PACIFIC TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST.
OVERALL, DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED TRENDING THE FORECAST WITH
THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT THE ECMWF GIVEN ITS AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS REGARDING A
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE GFS BRINGS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE AROUND THE BASE OF A PACIFIC TROUGH AND INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OCCURRING ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES. THE GFS SOLUTION LIFTS
THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
THEN PUSHING INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA FRIDAY. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT, THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA FRIDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AGAIN OVER THE DESERTS BUT
COOLING CONDITIONS OVER INYO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
COOLER WEATHER WOULD THEN BE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS ON SATURDAY DUE TO
THE LOCATION OF THE LOW SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES THIS INTO
ACCOUNT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED REGIONS OF
THE LOW WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA, THE NORTHERN CWA AND
MOHAVE COUNTY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 210405 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
905 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CIRCULATING NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PULL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING PLACING
MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER REGION OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THERE HAVE BEEN
THREE DISTINCT LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE AREA SINCE
AFTERNOON. MOST INTENSE LINE AT THIS HOUR CONTINUES TO BE LINE
RUNNING NEAR/ALONG HIGHWAY 93 FROM IN LINCOLN COUNTY SOUTH INTO
NORTHEAST LAS VEGAS VALLEY. OTHER LINE OVER SOUTHWEST INYO COUNTY
AND THE ONE FROM NEAR TONOPAH SOUTH TO DEATH VALLEY NATL PARK HAVE
SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING. WILL BE MONITORING SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AROUND LAS VEGAS FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. LINCOLN COUNTY WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE GUN THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR PRESENTLY OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY GRADUALLY
SPREADS NORTH. FORECAST LOOKS FINE THE REST OF TONIGHT/SUNDAY. NO
UPDATE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL AFFECT THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY THROUGH 05Z-06Z THIS EVENING WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
...GUSTING AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES. BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO THE TYPICAL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10
KTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT VALLEY TERMINALS
INTO LATE EVENING. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MOST EXTENSIVE IN
BEATTY...PEACH SPRINGS...AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS. BKN-OVC CLOUDS
WILL GENERALLY HAVE BASES 8-10 KFT BUT WILL LIKELY LOWER TO AROUND 6
KFT NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CLEARING TREND WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWERING CLOUDS BASES WILL
LEAD TO MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT LIKELY. A CLEARING TREND
WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY.
&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...
245 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE LAST FEW DAYS OVER THE
WESTERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS STARTING TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WILL
CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE MONDAY.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA...WRAPPING
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AREA PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1 INCH
IN OUR NORTHWEST TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR NEEDLES
ARE FORECAST BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE HEAVY RAIN. AREA
AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER
1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE AVERAGE STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 20
MPH OR SO...WITH STORMS MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. THIS
MOTION WOULD GENERALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TIME ANY ONE CELL IS OVER
ONE PARTICULAR AREA. HOWEVER...THERE CAN BE SOME ISOLATED AREAS
WHERE REDEVELOPMENT OR TRAINING CONVECTION FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME MAY WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING HERE AND
THERE. WITH WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH PRODUCTS BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 45 MPH AS WELL AS SOME HAIL. SO PLEASE KEEP ALERT OF
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PARTICULARLY
IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE A NORTHEAST TRACK ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT NORTH...WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING INTO OUR CALIFORNIA AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SO...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AIR
PUSHING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING PACIFIC TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST.
OVERALL, DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED TRENDING THE FORECAST WITH
THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT THE ECMWF GIVEN ITS AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS REGARDING A
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE GFS BRINGS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE AROUND THE BASE OF A PACIFIC TROUGH AND INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OCCURRING ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES. THE GFS SOLUTION LIFTS
THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
THEN PUSHING INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA FRIDAY. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT, THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA FRIDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AGAIN OVER THE DESERTS BUT
COOLING CONDITIONS OVER INYO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
COOLER WEATHER WOULD THEN BE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS ON SATURDAY DUE TO
THE LOCATION OF THE LOW SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES THIS INTO
ACCOUNT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED REGIONS OF
THE LOW WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA, THE NORTHERN CWA AND
MOHAVE COUNTY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 202145
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
245 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CIRCULATING NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PULL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE LAST FEW DAYS OVER THE
WESTERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS STARTING TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WILL
CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE MONDAY.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA...WRAPPING
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AREA PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1 INCH
IN OUR NORTHWEST TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR NEEDLES
ARE FORECAST BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE HEAVY RAIN. AREA
AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER
1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE AVERAGE STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 20
MPH OR SO...WITH STORMS MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. THIS
MOTION WOULD GENERALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TIME ANY ONE CELL IS OVER
ONE PARTICULAR AREA. HOWEVER...THERE CAN BE SOME ISOLATED AREAS
WHERE REDEVELOPMENT OR TRAINING CONVECTION FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME MAY WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING HERE AND
THERE. WITH WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH PRODUCTS BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 45 MPH AS WELL AS SOME HAIL. SO PLEASE KEEP ALERT OF
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PARTICULARLY
IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE A NORTHEAST TRACK ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT NORTH...WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING INTO OUR CALIFORNIA AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SO...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AIR
PUSHING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING PACIFIC TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST.
OVERALL, DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED TRENDING THE FORECAST WITH
THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT THE ECMWF GIVEN ITS AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS REGARDING A
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE GFS BRINGS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE AROUND THE BASE OF A PACIFIC TROUGH AND INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OCCURRING ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES. THE GFS SOLUTION LIFTS
THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
THEN PUSHING INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA FRIDAY. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT, THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA FRIDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AGAIN OVER THE DESERTS BUT
COOLING CONDITIONS OVER INYO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
COOLER WEATHER WOULD THEN BE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS ON SATURDAY DUE TO
THE LOCATION OF THE LOW SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES THIS INTO
ACCOUNT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED REGIONS OF
THE LOW WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA, THE NORTHERN CWA AND
MOHAVE COUNTY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE LEADING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TERMINAL AREA. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MOST
EXTENSIVE IN BEATTY...PEACH SPRINGS...AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS.
BKN-OVC CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HAVE BASES 8-10 KFT BUT WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO AROUND 6 KFT NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CLEARING
TREND WILL OCCUR SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWERING CLOUDS BASES WILL
LEAD TO MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT LIKELY. A CLEARING TREND
WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 202145
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
245 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CIRCULATING NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PULL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE LAST FEW DAYS OVER THE
WESTERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS STARTING TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WILL
CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE MONDAY.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA...WRAPPING
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AREA PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1 INCH
IN OUR NORTHWEST TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR NEEDLES
ARE FORECAST BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE HEAVY RAIN. AREA
AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER
1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE AVERAGE STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 20
MPH OR SO...WITH STORMS MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. THIS
MOTION WOULD GENERALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TIME ANY ONE CELL IS OVER
ONE PARTICULAR AREA. HOWEVER...THERE CAN BE SOME ISOLATED AREAS
WHERE REDEVELOPMENT OR TRAINING CONVECTION FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME MAY WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING HERE AND
THERE. WITH WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH PRODUCTS BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 45 MPH AS WELL AS SOME HAIL. SO PLEASE KEEP ALERT OF
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PARTICULARLY
IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE A NORTHEAST TRACK ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT NORTH...WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING INTO OUR CALIFORNIA AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SO...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA
SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AIR
PUSHING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING PACIFIC TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST.
OVERALL, DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED TRENDING THE FORECAST WITH
THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT THE ECMWF GIVEN ITS AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS REGARDING A
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE GFS BRINGS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE AROUND THE BASE OF A PACIFIC TROUGH AND INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OCCURRING ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES. THE GFS SOLUTION LIFTS
THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
THEN PUSHING INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA FRIDAY. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT, THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA FRIDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AGAIN OVER THE DESERTS BUT
COOLING CONDITIONS OVER INYO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
COOLER WEATHER WOULD THEN BE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS ON SATURDAY DUE TO
THE LOCATION OF THE LOW SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES THIS INTO
ACCOUNT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED REGIONS OF
THE LOW WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA, THE NORTHERN CWA AND
MOHAVE COUNTY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE LEADING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TERMINAL AREA. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MOST
EXTENSIVE IN BEATTY...PEACH SPRINGS...AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS.
BKN-OVC CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HAVE BASES 8-10 KFT BUT WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO AROUND 6 KFT NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CLEARING
TREND WILL OCCUR SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWERING CLOUDS BASES WILL
LEAD TO MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT LIKELY. A CLEARING TREND
WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 201616
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
916 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CIRCULATING NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PULL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA...WRAPPING
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AROUND THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. LINCOLN AND NYE
COUNTIES SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE LATER TODAY...SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS A BIT ACROSS THOSE AREAS. AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AVERAGE STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 20 MPH OR
SO...WITH STORMS MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. NOT
ANTICIPATING A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH THESE STORM
SPEEDS. STILL NOT PLANNING ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
HOWEVER...THERE CAN BE SOME ISOLATED AREAS WHERE TRAINING CONVECTION
FOR A PERIOD OF TIME MAY WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING HERE AND THERE. STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 45 MPH AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. SO PLEASE KEEP ALERT
OF CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR
PLANS.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
340 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA
AND SOUTHEAST NEVADA. THIS WAS DUE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
CLOSED CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINNING TO PULL
MOISTURE OVER ARIZONA TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE CONTENT IS
QUITE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH PWAT VALUES GENERALLY
1.25-1.75 INCHES. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND INTERACT
WITH THE BROAD UPWARD FORCING OF THE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL SLOWLY
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. ALL OPERATIONAL AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN
QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT AT DEPICTING WIDESPREAD QPF ACROSS ACROSS
CENTRAL NYE...LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE DEPICTED ACROSS CLARK...EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES AND
ZONES FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES
SHOULD SEE AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL STORM MOVEMENT
SHOULD BE OVER 15-20 MPH OR HIGHER WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH WIDESPREAD
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH PLANNED.

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL GET STARTED THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST TONIGHT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORED COUNTIES. AS THE
CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEVADA
SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS AND HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES BEGINNING MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AVERAGING BETWEEN 4 AND 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE ON
THURSDAY AS A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH BEGINS TO NUDGE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THE FLOW AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CONUS.  THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE
FAVORED TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA AND OWENS VALLEY WHERE GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 40 MPH AT TIMES.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...DETAILS RAPIDLY DIVERGE DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST MODEL
YOU CHOOSE. THE LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THE PAC NW TROUGHING
INTO A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED WEST COAST TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY CLOSES
OFF OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND MEANDERS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN TO SAY THE LEAST.
THE GFS GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH AND
PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE MANY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEVELOP THE
TROUGH IN SOME MANNER IN BETWEEN, WITH MANY KEEPING A CLOSED LOW
SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...DIDN`T
MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT CONTINUED TO
TREND TEMPERATURES COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY LEADING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AROUND
5-8 KTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TERMINAL AREA. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MOST
EXTENSIVE IN PEACH SPRINGS AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS. BKN-OVC CLOUDS
WILL GENERALLY HAVE BASES 8-10 KFT BUT WILL LIKELY LOWER TO AROUND 6
KFT NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CLEARING TREND WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWERING CLOUDS
BASES WILL LEAD TO MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA
AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT LIKELY. A CLEARING
TREND WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PADDOCK
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 201041
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
340 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CIRCULATING NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PULL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA
AND SOUTHEAST NEVADA. THIS WAS DUE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
CLOSED CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINNING TO PULL
MOISTURE OVER ARIZONA TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE CONTENT IS
QUITE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH PWAT VALUES GENERALLY
1.25-1.75 INCHES. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND INTERACT
WITH THE BROAD UPWARD FORCING OF THE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL SLOWLY
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. ALL OPERATIONAL AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN
QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT AT DEPICTING WIDESPREAD QPF ACROSS ACROSS
CENTRAL NYE...LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE DEPICTED ACROSS CLARK...EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES AND
ZONES FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES
SHOULD SEE AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL STORM MOVEMENT
SHOULD BE OVER 15-20 MPH OR HIGHER WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH WIDESPREAD
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH PLANNED.

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL GET STARTED THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST TONIGHT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORED COUNTIES. AS THE
CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEVADA
SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS AND HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES BEGINNING MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AVERAGING BETWEEN 4 AND 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE ON
THURSDAY AS A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH BEGINS TO NUDGE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THE FLOW AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CONUS.  THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE
FAVORED TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA AND OWENS VALLEY WHERE GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 40 MPH AT TIMES.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...DETAILS RAPIDLY DIVERGE DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST MODEL
YOU CHOOSE. THE LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THE PAC NW TROUGHING
INTO A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED WEST COAST TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY CLOSES
OFF OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND MEANDERS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN TO SAY THE LEAST.
THE GFS GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH AND
PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE MANY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEVELOP THE
TROUGH IN SOME MANNER IN BETWEEN, WITH MANY KEEPING A CLOSED LOW
SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...DIDN`T
MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT CONTINUED TO
TREND TEMPERATURES COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY LEADING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AROUND
5-8 KTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TERMINAL AREA. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MOST
EXTENSIVE IN PEACH SPRINGS AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS. BKN-OVC CLOUDS
WILL GENERALLY HAVE BASES 8-10 KFT BUT WILL LIKELY LOWER TO AROUND 6
KFT NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CLEARING TREND WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWERING CLOUDS
BASES WILL LEAD TO MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA
AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURMENT LIKELY. A CLEARING
TREND WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 201041
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
340 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CIRCULATING NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PULL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA
AND SOUTHEAST NEVADA. THIS WAS DUE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
CLOSED CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINNING TO PULL
MOISTURE OVER ARIZONA TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE CONTENT IS
QUITE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH PWAT VALUES GENERALLY
1.25-1.75 INCHES. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND INTERACT
WITH THE BROAD UPWARD FORCING OF THE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL SLOWLY
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. ALL OPERATIONAL AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN
QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT AT DEPICTING WIDESPREAD QPF ACROSS ACROSS
CENTRAL NYE...LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE DEPICTED ACROSS CLARK...EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES AND
ZONES FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES
SHOULD SEE AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL STORM MOVEMENT
SHOULD BE OVER 15-20 MPH OR HIGHER WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH WIDESPREAD
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH PLANNED.

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL GET STARTED THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST TONIGHT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORED COUNTIES. AS THE
CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEVADA
SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS AND HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES BEGINNING MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AVERAGING BETWEEN 4 AND 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE ON
THURSDAY AS A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH BEGINS TO NUDGE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THE FLOW AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CONUS.  THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE
FAVORED TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA AND OWENS VALLEY WHERE GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 40 MPH AT TIMES.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...DETAILS RAPIDLY DIVERGE DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST MODEL
YOU CHOOSE. THE LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THE PAC NW TROUGHING
INTO A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED WEST COAST TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY CLOSES
OFF OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND MEANDERS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN TO SAY THE LEAST.
THE GFS GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH AND
PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE MANY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEVELOP THE
TROUGH IN SOME MANNER IN BETWEEN, WITH MANY KEEPING A CLOSED LOW
SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...DIDN`T
MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT CONTINUED TO
TREND TEMPERATURES COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY LEADING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AROUND
5-8 KTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TERMINAL AREA. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MOST
EXTENSIVE IN PEACH SPRINGS AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS. BKN-OVC CLOUDS
WILL GENERALLY HAVE BASES 8-10 KFT BUT WILL LIKELY LOWER TO AROUND 6
KFT NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CLEARING TREND WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWERING CLOUDS
BASES WILL LEAD TO MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA
AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURMENT LIKELY. A CLEARING
TREND WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KVEF 200310
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
810 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN PULL
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...A COUPLE LINGERING MINUTE THUNDERSTORMS IN EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS EVENING. I UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING IN
NORTHEASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY. CLOUDS WERE INCREASED THERE AS
WELL...BUT REDUCED EVERYWHERE ELSE. I ALSO REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE FORECAST IN THE SIERRA THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO
MOHAVE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
145 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW SITTING OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTROL
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. CURRENTLY IT IS PROVIDING
A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NORTHERN MOHAVE AND
PERHAPS EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE SAME IS
TRUE FOR THE SIERRA...BEING CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW DYNAMICS. ONCE
HEATING WANES SO TOO WILL ANY SHOWER/STORM.

EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT...THE ONLY THING WE WILL BE WATCHING IS
POTENTIALLY THE RETURN OF SOME SMOKE TO THE OWENS VALLEY AREA DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. SMOKE WEST AND
NORTH OF THE REGION MAY ADVECT INTO THE AREA ONCE THE TYPICAL
NORTHWEST DIURNAL WINDS KICK IN OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED PATCHY SMOKE
TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW WILL START TO LIFT NORTHEAST SATURDAY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE /ALTHOUGH
NOT PARTICULARLY DEEP/ WILL BE PULLED NORTH AND WEST AHEAD OF THE
LOW. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
LIFTED INDICES PROJECTED TO BE AROUND -2 TO -4 FROM MOHAVE TO
LINCOLN. SOME PORTIONS OF CLARK...NYE...AND THE SIERRA WILL
DESTABILIZE AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. WITH THE PRESENCE OF
SOME DRY AIR...PARTICULARLY ACROSS LINCOLN...NYE...AND NORTHERN
MOHAVE COUNTIES...SOME OF THE INITIAL CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
COULD PRODUCE STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE A NORTHEAST TRACK ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AS DRIER
AIR WILL START WORKING INTO OUR CALIFORNIA AREAS...ESPECIALLY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY AIR PUSHING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BRINGING AN END TO
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.

BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW...TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND COOLER AND BE CLOSE TO NORMAL TOMORROW AND AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL READING ARE LIKELY FOR AREAS THAT
RECEIVE PRECIP AND/OR ARE UNDER THICKER CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN TRENDED CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN REAL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
LIFTING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY MID WEEK IN RESPONSE
TO A PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK...SENDING TEMPERATURES 5-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD PUT HIGH TEMPS IN
VEGAS EITHER SIDE OF 100 DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT
MON-TUE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF BRING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY MORNING BUT THEN THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE LATEST GFS REMAINED CONSISTENT IF NOT A BIT
SLOWER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS IN SENDING THE SHORTWAVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND DIGGING A BROAD TROUGH DOWN ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MOHAVE COUNTY FRIDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAD
A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION THAT WOULD RESULT IN LESS WIND AND LITTLE TO
NO COOLING FOR CWA. OPTED TO DISCOUNT THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW
PRIMARILY TO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST BUT ALSO
BECAUSE IT IS OFFERING A NEW LOOK TO THE END OF THE WEEK PATTERN
EVOLUTION THAT FEATURES AN ANOMALOUS PACIFIC NW LOW...WHICH IS, IN
PART, RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE PATTERN. LOOKING AT
A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS AND
SEVERAL MORE DEGREES OF COOLING FRIDAY AS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS
SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AFTER 04Z THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND THE AREA SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
SIERRA AND EASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. SMOKE AND REDUCED VISIBILITY MAY
RETURN TO THE BISHOP AREA OVERNIGHT...ONCE NORTHWEST WINDS COMMENCE.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOSTLY SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT DIURNAL OVERNIGHT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

.UPDATE...CZYZYK
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER










000
FXUS65 KVEF 200310
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
810 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN PULL
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...A COUPLE LINGERING MINUTE THUNDERSTORMS IN EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS EVENING. I UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING IN
NORTHEASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY. CLOUDS WERE INCREASED THERE AS
WELL...BUT REDUCED EVERYWHERE ELSE. I ALSO REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE FORECAST IN THE SIERRA THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO
MOHAVE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
145 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW SITTING OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTROL
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. CURRENTLY IT IS PROVIDING
A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NORTHERN MOHAVE AND
PERHAPS EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE SAME IS
TRUE FOR THE SIERRA...BEING CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW DYNAMICS. ONCE
HEATING WANES SO TOO WILL ANY SHOWER/STORM.

EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT...THE ONLY THING WE WILL BE WATCHING IS
POTENTIALLY THE RETURN OF SOME SMOKE TO THE OWENS VALLEY AREA DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. SMOKE WEST AND
NORTH OF THE REGION MAY ADVECT INTO THE AREA ONCE THE TYPICAL
NORTHWEST DIURNAL WINDS KICK IN OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED PATCHY SMOKE
TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW WILL START TO LIFT NORTHEAST SATURDAY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE /ALTHOUGH
NOT PARTICULARLY DEEP/ WILL BE PULLED NORTH AND WEST AHEAD OF THE
LOW. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
LIFTED INDICES PROJECTED TO BE AROUND -2 TO -4 FROM MOHAVE TO
LINCOLN. SOME PORTIONS OF CLARK...NYE...AND THE SIERRA WILL
DESTABILIZE AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. WITH THE PRESENCE OF
SOME DRY AIR...PARTICULARLY ACROSS LINCOLN...NYE...AND NORTHERN
MOHAVE COUNTIES...SOME OF THE INITIAL CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
COULD PRODUCE STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE A NORTHEAST TRACK ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AS DRIER
AIR WILL START WORKING INTO OUR CALIFORNIA AREAS...ESPECIALLY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY AIR PUSHING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BRINGING AN END TO
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.

BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW...TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND COOLER AND BE CLOSE TO NORMAL TOMORROW AND AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL READING ARE LIKELY FOR AREAS THAT
RECEIVE PRECIP AND/OR ARE UNDER THICKER CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN TRENDED CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN REAL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
LIFTING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY MID WEEK IN RESPONSE
TO A PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK...SENDING TEMPERATURES 5-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD PUT HIGH TEMPS IN
VEGAS EITHER SIDE OF 100 DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT
MON-TUE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF BRING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY MORNING BUT THEN THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE LATEST GFS REMAINED CONSISTENT IF NOT A BIT
SLOWER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS IN SENDING THE SHORTWAVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND DIGGING A BROAD TROUGH DOWN ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MOHAVE COUNTY FRIDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAD
A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION THAT WOULD RESULT IN LESS WIND AND LITTLE TO
NO COOLING FOR CWA. OPTED TO DISCOUNT THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW
PRIMARILY TO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST BUT ALSO
BECAUSE IT IS OFFERING A NEW LOOK TO THE END OF THE WEEK PATTERN
EVOLUTION THAT FEATURES AN ANOMALOUS PACIFIC NW LOW...WHICH IS, IN
PART, RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE PATTERN. LOOKING AT
A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS AND
SEVERAL MORE DEGREES OF COOLING FRIDAY AS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS
SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AFTER 04Z THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND THE AREA SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
SIERRA AND EASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. SMOKE AND REDUCED VISIBILITY MAY
RETURN TO THE BISHOP AREA OVERNIGHT...ONCE NORTHWEST WINDS COMMENCE.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOSTLY SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT DIURNAL OVERNIGHT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

.UPDATE...CZYZYK
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER











000
FXUS65 KVEF 192045
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
145 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN PULL
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW SITTING OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTROL
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. CURRENTLY IT IS PROVIDING
A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NORTHERN MOHAVE AND
PERHAPS EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE SAME IS
TRUE FOR THE SIERRA...BEING CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW DYNAMICS. ONCE
HEATING WANES SO TOO WILL ANY SHOWER/STORM.

EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT...THE ONLY THING WE WILL BE WATCHING IS
POTENTIALLY THE RETURN OF SOME SMOKE TO THE OWENS VALLEY AREA DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. SMOKE WEST AND
NORTH OF THE REGION MAY ADVECT INTO THE AREA ONCE THE TYPICAL
NORTHWEST DIURNAL WINDS KICK IN OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED PATCHY SMOKE
TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW WILL START TO LIFT NORTHEAST SATURDAY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE /ALTHOUGH
NOT PARTICULARLY DEEP/ WILL BE PULLED NORTH AND WEST AHEAD OF THE
LOW. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
LIFTED INDICES PROJECTED TO BE AROUND -2 TO -4 FROM MOHAVE TO
LINCOLN. SOME PORTIONS OF CLARK...NYE...AND THE SIERRA WILL
DESTABILIZE AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. WITH THE PRESENCE OF
SOME DRY AIR...PARTICULARLY ACROSS LINCOLN...NYE...AND NORTHERN
MOHAVE COUNTIES...SOME OF THE INITIAL CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
COULD PRODUCE STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE A NORTHEAST TRACK ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AS DRIER
AIR WILL START WORKING INTO OUR CALIFORNIA AREAS...ESPECIALLY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY AIR PUSHING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BRINGING AN END TO
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.

BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW...TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND COOLER AND BE CLOSE TO NORMAL TOMORROW AND AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL READING ARE LIKELY FOR AREAS THAT
RECEIVE PRECIP AND/OR ARE UNDER THICKER CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN TRENDED CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN REAL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
LIFTING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY MID WEEK IN RESPONSE
TO A PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK...SENDING TEMPERATURES 5-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD PUT HIGH TEMPS IN
VEGAS EITHER SIDE OF 100 DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT
MON-TUE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF BRING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY MORNING BUT THEN THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE LATEST GFS REMAINED CONSISTENT IF NOT A BIT
SLOWER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS IN SENDING THE SHORTWAVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND DIGGING A BROAD TROUGH DOWN ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MOHAVE COUNTY FRIDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAD
A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION THAT WOULD RESULT IN LESS WIND AND LITTLE TO
NO COOLING FOR CWA. OPTED TO DISCOUNT THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW
PRIMARILY TO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST BUT ALSO
BECAUSE IT IS OFFERING A NEW LOOK TO THE END OF THE WEEK PATTERN
EVOLUTION THAT FEATURES AN ANOMALOUS PACIFIC NW LOW...WHICH IS, IN
PART, RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE PATTERN. LOOKING AT
A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS AND
SEVERAL MORE DEGREES OF COOLING FRIDAY AS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS
SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AFTER 04Z THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND THE AREA SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
SIERRA AND EASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. SMOKE AND REDUCED VISIBILITY MAY
RETURN TO THE BISHOP AREA OVERNIGHT...ONCE NORTHWEST WINDS COMMENCE.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOSTLY SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT DIURNAL OVERNIGHT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 192045
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
145 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN PULL
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW SITTING OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTROL
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. CURRENTLY IT IS PROVIDING
A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NORTHERN MOHAVE AND
PERHAPS EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE SAME IS
TRUE FOR THE SIERRA...BEING CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW DYNAMICS. ONCE
HEATING WANES SO TOO WILL ANY SHOWER/STORM.

EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT...THE ONLY THING WE WILL BE WATCHING IS
POTENTIALLY THE RETURN OF SOME SMOKE TO THE OWENS VALLEY AREA DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. SMOKE WEST AND
NORTH OF THE REGION MAY ADVECT INTO THE AREA ONCE THE TYPICAL
NORTHWEST DIURNAL WINDS KICK IN OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED PATCHY SMOKE
TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW WILL START TO LIFT NORTHEAST SATURDAY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE /ALTHOUGH
NOT PARTICULARLY DEEP/ WILL BE PULLED NORTH AND WEST AHEAD OF THE
LOW. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
LIFTED INDICES PROJECTED TO BE AROUND -2 TO -4 FROM MOHAVE TO
LINCOLN. SOME PORTIONS OF CLARK...NYE...AND THE SIERRA WILL
DESTABILIZE AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. WITH THE PRESENCE OF
SOME DRY AIR...PARTICULARLY ACROSS LINCOLN...NYE...AND NORTHERN
MOHAVE COUNTIES...SOME OF THE INITIAL CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
COULD PRODUCE STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE A NORTHEAST TRACK ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AS DRIER
AIR WILL START WORKING INTO OUR CALIFORNIA AREAS...ESPECIALLY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY AIR PUSHING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BRINGING AN END TO
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.

BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW...TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND COOLER AND BE CLOSE TO NORMAL TOMORROW AND AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL READING ARE LIKELY FOR AREAS THAT
RECEIVE PRECIP AND/OR ARE UNDER THICKER CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN TRENDED CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN REAL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
LIFTING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY MID WEEK IN RESPONSE
TO A PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK...SENDING TEMPERATURES 5-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD PUT HIGH TEMPS IN
VEGAS EITHER SIDE OF 100 DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT
MON-TUE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF BRING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY MORNING BUT THEN THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE LATEST GFS REMAINED CONSISTENT IF NOT A BIT
SLOWER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS IN SENDING THE SHORTWAVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND DIGGING A BROAD TROUGH DOWN ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MOHAVE COUNTY FRIDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAD
A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION THAT WOULD RESULT IN LESS WIND AND LITTLE TO
NO COOLING FOR CWA. OPTED TO DISCOUNT THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW
PRIMARILY TO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST BUT ALSO
BECAUSE IT IS OFFERING A NEW LOOK TO THE END OF THE WEEK PATTERN
EVOLUTION THAT FEATURES AN ANOMALOUS PACIFIC NW LOW...WHICH IS, IN
PART, RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE PATTERN. LOOKING AT
A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS AND
SEVERAL MORE DEGREES OF COOLING FRIDAY AS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS
SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AFTER 04Z THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND THE AREA SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
SIERRA AND EASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. SMOKE AND REDUCED VISIBILITY MAY
RETURN TO THE BISHOP AREA OVERNIGHT...ONCE NORTHWEST WINDS COMMENCE.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOSTLY SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT DIURNAL OVERNIGHT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KVEF 191437
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
737 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN
PULL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD HAZE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE OWENS VALLEY
AREA AND INTO ESMERALDA COUNTY. NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT BROUGHT IN
SOME HAZE/SMOKE INTO THE AREA. AREA WEBCAMS AND LOCAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE VISIBILITY CAN BE REDUCED TO ABOUT 3-4 MILES AT TIMES. THIS
WILL LIKELY LINGER UNTIL WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN MIXING LATE THIS
MORNING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THE
MOMENT...NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
322 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER
MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO INDICATE LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTIES SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS LEFT IN THE
FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. DUE TO INFLUENCE OF THE LOW...THE SIERRA
COULD ALSO SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW WILL START TO LIFT NORTHEAST SATURDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA...PULLING MOISTURE UP AHEAD
OF THE LOW. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY KEEPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE LOW WITH DRY AIR PUSHING ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MODELS INDICATE WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH WILL GENERALLY BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
START INCREASING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. WE REALLY WONT SEE MUCH OF AN IMPACT
WEDNESDAY...BUT BY THURSDAY WE WILL START TO SEE AT LEAST BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER MOST AREAS ALONG WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THIS TIME THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
ABOUT 14Z THIS MORNING THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10
KTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z THEN LIGHT SOUTH AFTER 04Z
THIS EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
SIERRA AND EASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING THEN MOSTLY SOUTH 10-15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PADDOCK
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER











000
FXUS65 KVEF 191437
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
737 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN
PULL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD HAZE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE OWENS VALLEY
AREA AND INTO ESMERALDA COUNTY. NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT BROUGHT IN
SOME HAZE/SMOKE INTO THE AREA. AREA WEBCAMS AND LOCAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE VISIBILITY CAN BE REDUCED TO ABOUT 3-4 MILES AT TIMES. THIS
WILL LIKELY LINGER UNTIL WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN MIXING LATE THIS
MORNING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THE
MOMENT...NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
322 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER
MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO INDICATE LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTIES SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS LEFT IN THE
FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. DUE TO INFLUENCE OF THE LOW...THE SIERRA
COULD ALSO SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW WILL START TO LIFT NORTHEAST SATURDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA...PULLING MOISTURE UP AHEAD
OF THE LOW. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY KEEPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE LOW WITH DRY AIR PUSHING ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MODELS INDICATE WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH WILL GENERALLY BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
START INCREASING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. WE REALLY WONT SEE MUCH OF AN IMPACT
WEDNESDAY...BUT BY THURSDAY WE WILL START TO SEE AT LEAST BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER MOST AREAS ALONG WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THIS TIME THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
ABOUT 14Z THIS MORNING THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10
KTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z THEN LIGHT SOUTH AFTER 04Z
THIS EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
SIERRA AND EASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING THEN MOSTLY SOUTH 10-15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PADDOCK
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER










000
FXUS65 KVEF 191022
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
322 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN
PULL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER
MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO INDICATE LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTIES SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS LEFT IN THE
FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. DUE TO INFLUENCE OF THE LOW...THE SIERRA
COULD ALSO SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW WILL START TO LIFT NORTHEAST SATURDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA...PULLING MOISTURE UP AHEAD
OF THE LOW. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY KEEPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE LOW WITH DRY AIR PUSHING ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MODELS INDICATE WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH WILL GENERALLY BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
START INCREASING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. WE REALLY WONT SEE MUCH OF AN IMPACT
WEDNESDAY...BUT BY THURSDAY WE WILL START TO SEE AT LEAST BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER MOST AREAS ALONG WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THIS TIME THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
ABOUT 14Z THIS MORNING THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10
KTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z THEN LIGHT SOUTH AFTER 04Z
THIS EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
SIERRA AND EASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING THEN MOSTLY SOUTH 10-15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
   &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 191022
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
322 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN
PULL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER
MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO INDICATE LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTIES SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS LEFT IN THE
FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. DUE TO INFLUENCE OF THE LOW...THE SIERRA
COULD ALSO SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW WILL START TO LIFT NORTHEAST SATURDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA...PULLING MOISTURE UP AHEAD
OF THE LOW. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY KEEPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE LOW WITH DRY AIR PUSHING ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MODELS INDICATE WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH WILL GENERALLY BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
START INCREASING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. WE REALLY WONT SEE MUCH OF AN IMPACT
WEDNESDAY...BUT BY THURSDAY WE WILL START TO SEE AT LEAST BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER MOST AREAS ALONG WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THIS TIME THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
ABOUT 14Z THIS MORNING THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10
KTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z THEN LIGHT SOUTH AFTER 04Z
THIS EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
SIERRA AND EASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING THEN MOSTLY SOUTH 10-15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
   &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KVEF 190304
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
804 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH MOST OF THE AREA
BEING DRY FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN PULL MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...A FEW MINOR GUSTS STILL PERSISTING IN PARTS OF THE MOJAVE
DESERT...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIE DOWN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. I
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE ANY SHOWERS FROM THE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND REDUCED CLOUDS...EXCEPT IN ESMERALDA COUNTY WHERE SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS ARE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTY. MUCH DRIER...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN NEVADA WHERE DEW
POINTS ARE 20 TO 25 DEGREES LOWER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

.PREV DISCUSSION...
805 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS IS LESS COMPLICATED
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS
MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING
DRY AIR ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE REMAINS
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS PORTIONS OF LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES...WHICH IS NOTICEABLE
IN THE CUMULUS FIELD THAT DEVELOPED. STILL...THESE ARE STRUGGLING
AND ONCE DIURNAL HEATING WANES SO TOO WILL ANY CHANCE OF CONVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO BECOME A CLOSED LOW JUST OFF
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
THE AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...SUPPLYING ADDITIONAL DRYING TO OUR
FORECAST AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES
BUT CHANCES APPEAR QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME. WE COULD ALSO SEE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA AS THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW DYNAMICS.

FOR SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AS THIS OCCURS...IT WILL BEGIN PULLING MOISTURE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINING WITH THE LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICS TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...PARTICULARLY FOR OUR TERRAIN ACROSS THE EAST AS WELL AS
THE SIERRA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. CHANCES THEN SHIFT NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THICKNESSES ALOFT DECREASE WITH THE APPROACHING LOW...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER AND BE CLOSE TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
BELOW NORMAL READING ARE LIKELY SATURDAY FOR AREAS UNDER THICKER
CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NEVADA WITH THE NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN ASSOCIATED JET. THIS COULD HELP
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT. THERE WAS NO MODEL
GENERATED QPF OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY SO
REMOVED MENTION OF WEATHER THERE. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

DRY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH ALL MODELS FORECASTING A PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST. THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHETHER THE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN NEAR THE END OF THIS PERIOD OR WHETHER IT REMAINS
CONSOLIDATED AS IT MOVES INTO THE WEST. THIS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE
IN FORECASTING WIND SPEEDS, TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MOUNTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
BREEZY CONDITIONS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO
TELL IF THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN VEGAS PUSHING CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY. HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD THEN BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDOR TODAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 22 KTS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING...YET WINDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONFIG 1. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT /LESS THAN 10 KTS/ FRIDAY MORNING AND FAVOR AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN LINCOLN AND
MOHAVE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND IN NYE COUNTY...WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CZYZYK
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER










000
FXUS65 KVEF 190304
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
804 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH MOST OF THE AREA
BEING DRY FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN PULL MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...A FEW MINOR GUSTS STILL PERSISTING IN PARTS OF THE MOJAVE
DESERT...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIE DOWN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. I
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE ANY SHOWERS FROM THE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND REDUCED CLOUDS...EXCEPT IN ESMERALDA COUNTY WHERE SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS ARE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTY. MUCH DRIER...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN NEVADA WHERE DEW
POINTS ARE 20 TO 25 DEGREES LOWER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

.PREV DISCUSSION...
805 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS IS LESS COMPLICATED
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS
MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING
DRY AIR ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE REMAINS
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS PORTIONS OF LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES...WHICH IS NOTICEABLE
IN THE CUMULUS FIELD THAT DEVELOPED. STILL...THESE ARE STRUGGLING
AND ONCE DIURNAL HEATING WANES SO TOO WILL ANY CHANCE OF CONVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO BECOME A CLOSED LOW JUST OFF
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
THE AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...SUPPLYING ADDITIONAL DRYING TO OUR
FORECAST AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES
BUT CHANCES APPEAR QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME. WE COULD ALSO SEE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA AS THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW DYNAMICS.

FOR SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AS THIS OCCURS...IT WILL BEGIN PULLING MOISTURE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINING WITH THE LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICS TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...PARTICULARLY FOR OUR TERRAIN ACROSS THE EAST AS WELL AS
THE SIERRA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. CHANCES THEN SHIFT NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THICKNESSES ALOFT DECREASE WITH THE APPROACHING LOW...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER AND BE CLOSE TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
BELOW NORMAL READING ARE LIKELY SATURDAY FOR AREAS UNDER THICKER
CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NEVADA WITH THE NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN ASSOCIATED JET. THIS COULD HELP
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT. THERE WAS NO MODEL
GENERATED QPF OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY SO
REMOVED MENTION OF WEATHER THERE. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

DRY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH ALL MODELS FORECASTING A PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST. THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHETHER THE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN NEAR THE END OF THIS PERIOD OR WHETHER IT REMAINS
CONSOLIDATED AS IT MOVES INTO THE WEST. THIS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE
IN FORECASTING WIND SPEEDS, TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MOUNTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
BREEZY CONDITIONS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO
TELL IF THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN VEGAS PUSHING CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY. HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD THEN BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDOR TODAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 22 KTS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING...YET WINDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONFIG 1. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT /LESS THAN 10 KTS/ FRIDAY MORNING AND FAVOR AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN LINCOLN AND
MOHAVE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND IN NYE COUNTY...WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CZYZYK
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER











000
FXUS65 KVEF 182142
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
242 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH MOST OF THE AREA
BEING DRY FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN PULL MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS IS LESS COMPLICATED
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS
MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING
DRY AIR ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE REMAINS
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS PORTIONS OF LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES...WHICH IS NOTICEABLE
IN THE CUMULUS FIELD THAT DEVELOPED. STILL...THESE ARE STRUGGLING
AND ONCE DIURNAL HEATING WANES SO TOO WILL ANY CHANCE OF CONVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO BECOME A CLOSED LOW JUST OFF
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
THE AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...SUPPLYING ADDITIONAL DRYING TO OUR
FORECAST AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES
BUT CHANCES APPEAR QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME. WE COULD ALSO SEE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA AS THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW DYNAMICS.

FOR SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AS THIS OCCURS...IT WILL BEGIN PULLING MOISTURE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINING WITH THE LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICS TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...PARTICULARLY FOR OUR TERRAIN ACROSS THE EAST AS WELL AS
THE SIERRA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. CHANCES THEN SHIFT NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THICKNESSES ALOFT DECREASE WITH THE APPROACHING LOW...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER AND BE CLOSE TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
BELOW NORMAL READING ARE LIKELY SATURDAY FOR AREAS UNDER THICKER
CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NEVADA WITH THE NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN ASSOCIATED JET. THIS COULD HELP
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT. THERE WAS NO MODEL
GENERATED QPF OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY SO
REMOVED MENTION OF WEATHER THERE. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

DRY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH ALL MODELS FORECASTING A PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST. THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHETHER THE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN NEAR THE END OF THIS PERIOD OR WHETHER IT REMAINS
CONSOLIDATED AS IT MOVES INTO THE WEST. THIS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE
IN FORECASTING WIND SPEEDS, TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MOUNTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
BREEZY CONDITIONS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO
TELL IF THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN VEGAS PUSHING CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY. HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD THEN BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDOR TODAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 22 KTS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING...YET WINDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONFIG 1. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT /LESS THAN 10 KTS/ FRIDAY MORNING AND FAVOR AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN LINCOLN AND
MOHAVE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND IN NYE COUNTY...WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KVEF 182142
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
242 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH MOST OF THE AREA
BEING DRY FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN PULL MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS IS LESS COMPLICATED
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS
MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING
DRY AIR ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE REMAINS
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS PORTIONS OF LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES...WHICH IS NOTICEABLE
IN THE CUMULUS FIELD THAT DEVELOPED. STILL...THESE ARE STRUGGLING
AND ONCE DIURNAL HEATING WANES SO TOO WILL ANY CHANCE OF CONVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO BECOME A CLOSED LOW JUST OFF
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
THE AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...SUPPLYING ADDITIONAL DRYING TO OUR
FORECAST AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES
BUT CHANCES APPEAR QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME. WE COULD ALSO SEE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA AS THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW DYNAMICS.

FOR SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AS THIS OCCURS...IT WILL BEGIN PULLING MOISTURE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINING WITH THE LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICS TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...PARTICULARLY FOR OUR TERRAIN ACROSS THE EAST AS WELL AS
THE SIERRA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. CHANCES THEN SHIFT NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THICKNESSES ALOFT DECREASE WITH THE APPROACHING LOW...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER AND BE CLOSE TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
BELOW NORMAL READING ARE LIKELY SATURDAY FOR AREAS UNDER THICKER
CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NEVADA WITH THE NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN ASSOCIATED JET. THIS COULD HELP
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT. THERE WAS NO MODEL
GENERATED QPF OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY SO
REMOVED MENTION OF WEATHER THERE. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

DRY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH ALL MODELS FORECASTING A PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST. THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHETHER THE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN NEAR THE END OF THIS PERIOD OR WHETHER IT REMAINS
CONSOLIDATED AS IT MOVES INTO THE WEST. THIS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE
IN FORECASTING WIND SPEEDS, TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MOUNTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
BREEZY CONDITIONS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO
TELL IF THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN VEGAS PUSHING CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY. HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD THEN BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDOR TODAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 22 KTS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING...YET WINDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONFIG 1. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT /LESS THAN 10 KTS/ FRIDAY MORNING AND FAVOR AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN LINCOLN AND
MOHAVE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND IN NYE COUNTY...WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







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