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000
FXUS65 KVEF 251023
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
225 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING ON MONDAY. ONE MORE
DAY OF MILD TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS
AND RAIN CHANCES SPREAD INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT MONDAY. A SWATH OF
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

ONE MORE DAY OF DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS IN STORE TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 10 AND 12
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WITH THE EXPECTED FULL SUNSHINE AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY...I NUDGED
TEMPERATURES UPWARDS A DEGREE OF TWO FROM THE BETTER PERFORMING
GUIDANCE. THIS PUTS LAS VEGAS AT 72 FOR A HIGH...JUST A FEW DEGREES
SHY OF THE RECORD. I ALSO NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL DEGREES FOR
DEATH VALLEY AFTER THEY REPORTED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 83F ON
SATURDAY.  GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY BUT WILL REMAIN WEAKER THAN OBSERVED SATURDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING
THIS EVENING.

AFTER TODAY...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TOWARDS A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WHICH WILL BE SLUNG NORTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THANKS TO A CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA COAST. INCREASING
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT ESPECIALLY MONDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL ALONG THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR INCLUDING LAS VEGAS WILL
BE FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT SO FAR WITH THIS TIMING SO I CONTINUED TO
BUMP POPS UPWARDS ON TONIGHTS SHIFT.  LESS CONSISTENT HAS BEEN MODEL
QPF WHICH VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL BUT LOOKS LIKE BETWEEN A TENTH
AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS A GOOD BET FOR MOST OF THE
DESERTS (INCLUDING LAS VEGAS)...WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN
NEVADA.  HOWEVER...DUE TO THE VERY WARM NATURE OF THE
AIRMASS....HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAKE IT HARD TO DISCOUNT
THE POSSIBILITY THAT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER.

DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL NATURE OF THIS AIRMASS...SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN QUITE HIGH...ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT.
SO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...SNOWFALL WONT BE
AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM. ABOVE THE SNOW LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE
TO FOUR INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.  PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH TUESDAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES DWINDLING OVER THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS...WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AFTER THE
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
AND CLEARING SKIES.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODELS AGREE THAT OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER RELATIVELY
WARM...FOR JANUARY...UPPER TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO IMPACT MUCH OF
THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND DEEPENS SOMEWHAT. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW I
KEPT SHOWERS LIMITED TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF INYO COUNTY THURSDAY
WITH BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT A RIDGE WILL START NOSING INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY...PUSHING THE LOW
SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT WE SHOULD START TO SEE DRYING ACROSS
ESMERALDA COUNTY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INYO...LINCOLN AND NYE
COUNTIES. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER BAJA BY SATURDAY WILL GIVE MOHAVE COUNTY THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM LOOK TO BE A
TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WIND PATTERNS EXPECTED TODAY. STILL ANTICIPATING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LOWERING CIGS MONDAY EVENING WITH RAIN EXPECTED AT THE
AIRFIELD MONDAY NIGHT. CIGS LIKELY TO FALL BELOW 5K FEET BY 6Z
TUESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BREEZY NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 25KTS REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE COLORADO
RIVER...PARTICULARLY NEAR KIFP AND KEED. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.  INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING CIGS
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AND BY MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER













000
FXUS65 KVEF 250355
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
800 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE WEAKENING ON MONDAY. THE REGION WILL
ENJOY ONE MORE DAY OF MILD TEMPERATURES BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES SPREAD INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT MONDAY. A SWATH OF RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF IN THE MOJAVE DESERT TUESDAY AS THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO UTAH.
&&

.UPDATE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. SOME
GUSTY WINDS PERSIST DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BUT HAVE WEAKENED
BELOW OUR LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND HAVE ALLOWED THAT TO
EXPIRE. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE ITS IN GOOD
SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS HAVE
KICKED IN THIS EVENING AND WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT OR BELOW 9KTS.
BY LATE MORNING SUNDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON A NORTHEAST-EAST
DIRECTION WILL BE FAVORED WITH SPEEDS AGAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS. SKIES
CLEAR THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  LWR CIGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
BAND OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT. WE COULD SEE CIGS AS LOW AS 2-3K FT
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 10 AM TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

WINDY IN SPOTS WITHIN THE COLORADO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL
ALLOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PROVIDE US AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY OF
VERY MILD WEATHER, ALTHOUGH FOR THOSE LIVING THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY SUNDAY.

AS STRONG RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY IT WILL OPEN THE
DOOR FOR UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MODELS STILL FORECASTING PW VALUES OF AT LEAST THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH, POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS NINE TENTHS OF AN INCH AS FAR NORTH OF
CLARK COUNTY WITH MAIN SWATH OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL
TIMING IN DECENT AGREEMENT SUGGESTING LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MAIN BAND THEN LIFTS NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN MONDAY
NIGHT. ON TUESDAY, CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE
MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END LASTLY IN LINCOLN COUNTY TUESDAY
NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS STILL LOOK TO STAY ABOVE 7000 FEET SO NOT LOOKING
AT ANY SNOW IMPACTS FOR AREAS PASSES. EARLY ESTIMATE HAS BETWEEN 1
AND 4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SPRING MTNS
AND EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES OF INYO COUNTY. WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT
WITH STORM TOTAL QPF OF BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WET
ROADS LEADING GREATER NUMBER OF TRAFFIC INCIDENTS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM
THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO AFFECT THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF NORTHERN BAJA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH EVENTUALLY
STARTS TO PUSH EAST NORTHEAST. THE MODELS ARE BOTH SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE STARTING TO SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND KEEPING AT LEAST SOME QPF ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND ARIZONA INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS
THEN DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE FRIDAY AS THE GFS WANTS TO DROP A
BACKDOOR LOW INTO NEVADA AND EVENTUALLY CLOSE IT OFF OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA SATURDAY MORNING AND ALONG WITH GENERATING QUITE A BIT OF
QPF. THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW ANY FEATURE DROPPING SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHES THE SOUTHERN LOW EAST. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/LOCATION IS LOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONG TERM WILL GENERALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&


FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTH WIND 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS PSBL
WITHIN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN KIFP AND KEED TIL 03Z THIS
EVENING. STILL BREEZY SUNDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS GENERALLY 15-25
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. ELSEWHERE, NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR
CIGS. LOW CIGS ACCOMPANIED WITH RAIN WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. MAIN SWATH OF RAIN/LWR
CIGS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN MONDAY NIGHT AND
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE
LONG TERM...GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KVEF 242248
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
248 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE WEAKENING ON MONDAY. THE REGION WILL
ENJOY ONE MORE DAY OF MILD TEMPERATURES BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES SPREAD INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT MONDAY. A SWATH OF RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF IN THE MOJAVE DESERT TUESDAY AS THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO UTAH.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

WINDY IN SPOTS WITHIN THE COLORADO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL
ALLOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PROVIDE US AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY OF
VERY MILD WEATHER, ALTHOUGH FOR THOSE LIVING THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY SUNDAY.

AS STRONG RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY IT WILL OPEN THE
DOOR FOR UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MODELS STILL FORECASTING PW VALUES OF AT LEAST THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH, POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS NINE TENTHS OF AN INCH AS FAR NORTH OF
CLARK COUNTY WITH MAIN SWATH OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL
TIMING IN DECENT AGREEMENT SUGGESTING LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MAIN BAND THEN LIFTS NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN MONDAY
NIGHT. ON TUESDAY, CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE
MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END LASTLY IN LINCOLN COUNTY TUESDAY
NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS STILL LOOK TO STAY ABOVE 7000 FEET SO NOT LOOKING
AT ANY SNOW IMPACTS FOR AREAS PASSES. EARLY ESTIMATE HAS BETWEEN 1
AND 4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SPRING MTNS
AND EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES OF INYO COUNTY. WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT
WITH STORM TOTAL QPF OF BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WET
ROADS LEADING GREATER NUMBER OF TRAFFIC INCIDENTS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM
THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO AFFECT THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF NORTHERN BAJA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH EVENTUALLY
STARTS TO PUSH EAST NORTHEAST. THE MODELS ARE BOTH SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE STARTING TO SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND KEEPING AT LEAST SOME QPF ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND ARIZONA INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS
THEN DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE FRIDAY AS THE GFS WANTS TO DROP A
BACKDOOR LOW INTO NEVADA AND EVENTUALLY CLOSE IT OFF OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA SATURDAY MORNING AND ALONG WITH GENERATING QUITE A BIT OF
QPF. THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW ANY FEATURE DROPPING SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHES THE SOUTHERN LOW EAST. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/LOCATION IS LOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONG TERM WILL GENERALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND COMPONENT INTO
EARLY EVENING WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS. WINDS WILL GO MORE
DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT, POSSIBLY NORTHWESTERLY AT TIMES WITH SPEED LESS
THAN 8 KTS. LATE MORNING SUNDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON A
NORTHEAST-EAST DIRECTION WILL BE FAVORED WITH SPEEDS AGAIN LESS THAN
10 KTS. SKIES CLEAR THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LWR CIGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT. WE
COULD SEE CIGS AS LOW AS 2-3K FT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 10 AM TUESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTH WIND 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS PSBL
WITHIN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN KIFP AND KEED TIL 03Z THIS
EVENING. STILL BREEZY SUNDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS GENERALLY 15-25
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. ELSEWHERE, NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR
CIGS. LOW CIGS ACCOMPANIED WITH RAIN WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. MAIN SWATH OF RAIN/LWR
CIGS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN MONDAY NIGHT AND
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE
LONG TERM...GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 242248
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
248 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE WEAKENING ON MONDAY. THE REGION WILL
ENJOY ONE MORE DAY OF MILD TEMPERATURES BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES SPREAD INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT MONDAY. A SWATH OF RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF IN THE MOJAVE DESERT TUESDAY AS THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO UTAH.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

WINDY IN SPOTS WITHIN THE COLORADO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL
ALLOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PROVIDE US AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY OF
VERY MILD WEATHER, ALTHOUGH FOR THOSE LIVING THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY SUNDAY.

AS STRONG RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY IT WILL OPEN THE
DOOR FOR UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MODELS STILL FORECASTING PW VALUES OF AT LEAST THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH, POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS NINE TENTHS OF AN INCH AS FAR NORTH OF
CLARK COUNTY WITH MAIN SWATH OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL
TIMING IN DECENT AGREEMENT SUGGESTING LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MAIN BAND THEN LIFTS NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN MONDAY
NIGHT. ON TUESDAY, CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE
MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END LASTLY IN LINCOLN COUNTY TUESDAY
NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS STILL LOOK TO STAY ABOVE 7000 FEET SO NOT LOOKING
AT ANY SNOW IMPACTS FOR AREAS PASSES. EARLY ESTIMATE HAS BETWEEN 1
AND 4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SPRING MTNS
AND EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES OF INYO COUNTY. WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT
WITH STORM TOTAL QPF OF BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WET
ROADS LEADING GREATER NUMBER OF TRAFFIC INCIDENTS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM
THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO AFFECT THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF NORTHERN BAJA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH EVENTUALLY
STARTS TO PUSH EAST NORTHEAST. THE MODELS ARE BOTH SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE STARTING TO SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND KEEPING AT LEAST SOME QPF ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND ARIZONA INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS
THEN DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE FRIDAY AS THE GFS WANTS TO DROP A
BACKDOOR LOW INTO NEVADA AND EVENTUALLY CLOSE IT OFF OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA SATURDAY MORNING AND ALONG WITH GENERATING QUITE A BIT OF
QPF. THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW ANY FEATURE DROPPING SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHES THE SOUTHERN LOW EAST. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/LOCATION IS LOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONG TERM WILL GENERALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND COMPONENT INTO
EARLY EVENING WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS. WINDS WILL GO MORE
DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT, POSSIBLY NORTHWESTERLY AT TIMES WITH SPEED LESS
THAN 8 KTS. LATE MORNING SUNDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON A
NORTHEAST-EAST DIRECTION WILL BE FAVORED WITH SPEEDS AGAIN LESS THAN
10 KTS. SKIES CLEAR THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LWR CIGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT. WE
COULD SEE CIGS AS LOW AS 2-3K FT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 10 AM TUESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTH WIND 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS PSBL
WITHIN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN KIFP AND KEED TIL 03Z THIS
EVENING. STILL BREEZY SUNDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS GENERALLY 15-25
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. ELSEWHERE, NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR
CIGS. LOW CIGS ACCOMPANIED WITH RAIN WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. MAIN SWATH OF RAIN/LWR
CIGS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN MONDAY NIGHT AND
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE
LONG TERM...GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 241722 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
922 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE TODAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA WITH
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW MAINLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...STRONGEST NORTH WINDS PRESENTLY AFFECTING THE OVERTON ARM
OF LAKE MEAD AND ALSO THE COLORADO RIVER FROM LAKE MOHAVE SOUTH INTO
THE MOHAVE VALLEY. SO FAR, THE LAKE HAVASU AREA IS BEING SHELTERED
SOMEWHAT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS
EVENING.

ELSEWHERE SUNNY, LOCALLY BREEZY AND WARMER TODAY. CURRENT PACKAGE IS
GOOD WITH NO UPDATE NEEDED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...STILL ANTICIPATING A MORE SUSTAINED NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WIND TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY BY 19Z.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KTS. NOT OUR OF
THE QUESTION TO HAVE A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20KTS. WINDS WILL
EASE AND RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT. RAIN AND REDUCED
CIGS REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTH WIND 10-20 KTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
AND IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
AFFECTING THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTS PUSHING 35 KTS
BETWEEN KIFP AND KHII. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT PROSPECT FOR RAIN AND LOW CIGS ON MONDAY NIGHT
OR TUESDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...230 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

WEAK CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL BE A KEY INSTIGATOR IN UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK IS NOW SPINNING OFF THE BAJA
COAST WHERE IT WILL MEANDER FOR A COUPLE DAYS. MEANWHILE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE HAS NUDGED INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH 588 DM+
HEIGHTS SITTING JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.  AS THE
CLOSED LOW SINKS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL NOSE
FURTHER INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SET UP A CLASSIC REX BLOCK PATTERN
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA WITH A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OFF THE BAJA COAST.  THE END
RESULT WILL BE MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEEKEND.  FORECAST
HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

BESIDES THE WARM TEMPERATURES...THE ONLY NOTABLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE THE WINDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF RIDGES AND
TERRAIN FEATURES. I ANTICIPATE THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND BE STRONGEST DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAUGHLIN/BULLHEAD CITY AND NEEDLES. A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY FOR THESE WINDS.
OTHERWISE...ENJOY A VERY MILD WEEKEND!

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THIS LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD WITH TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS
IMPACTING THE AREA. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A CLOSED LOW OFF BAJA MONDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS BUT
GENERALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY
TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO NORTHERN NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND
ONE INCH SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT PRECIP AMOUNTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. AS MENTIONED BEFORE THIS IS A FAIRLY WARM SYSTEM WITH
HIGH SNOW LEVELS...MAINLY ABOVE 7500 FEET. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL SPREAD TO ROUGHLY JUST SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS BY LATE MONDAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO AND
MOHAVE COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MOST OF THE AREA WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY BUT IT WILL PROBABLY BE ENDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NOW OPEN
WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT BY WEDNESDAY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN. THIS RIDGING MAY BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER UPPER LOW POTENTIALLY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE MONDAY-TUESDAY SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/LOCATION IS LOW. TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG
TERM WILL GENERALLY STILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BUT MUCH COOLER
THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND OR DAMAGE
SATURDAY.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 241722 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
922 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE TODAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA WITH
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW MAINLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...STRONGEST NORTH WINDS PRESENTLY AFFECTING THE OVERTON ARM
OF LAKE MEAD AND ALSO THE COLORADO RIVER FROM LAKE MOHAVE SOUTH INTO
THE MOHAVE VALLEY. SO FAR, THE LAKE HAVASU AREA IS BEING SHELTERED
SOMEWHAT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS
EVENING.

ELSEWHERE SUNNY, LOCALLY BREEZY AND WARMER TODAY. CURRENT PACKAGE IS
GOOD WITH NO UPDATE NEEDED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...STILL ANTICIPATING A MORE SUSTAINED NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WIND TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY BY 19Z.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KTS. NOT OUR OF
THE QUESTION TO HAVE A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20KTS. WINDS WILL
EASE AND RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT. RAIN AND REDUCED
CIGS REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTH WIND 10-20 KTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
AND IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
AFFECTING THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTS PUSHING 35 KTS
BETWEEN KIFP AND KHII. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT PROSPECT FOR RAIN AND LOW CIGS ON MONDAY NIGHT
OR TUESDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...230 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

WEAK CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL BE A KEY INSTIGATOR IN UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK IS NOW SPINNING OFF THE BAJA
COAST WHERE IT WILL MEANDER FOR A COUPLE DAYS. MEANWHILE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE HAS NUDGED INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH 588 DM+
HEIGHTS SITTING JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.  AS THE
CLOSED LOW SINKS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL NOSE
FURTHER INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SET UP A CLASSIC REX BLOCK PATTERN
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA WITH A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OFF THE BAJA COAST.  THE END
RESULT WILL BE MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEEKEND.  FORECAST
HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

BESIDES THE WARM TEMPERATURES...THE ONLY NOTABLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE THE WINDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF RIDGES AND
TERRAIN FEATURES. I ANTICIPATE THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND BE STRONGEST DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAUGHLIN/BULLHEAD CITY AND NEEDLES. A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY FOR THESE WINDS.
OTHERWISE...ENJOY A VERY MILD WEEKEND!

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THIS LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD WITH TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS
IMPACTING THE AREA. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A CLOSED LOW OFF BAJA MONDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS BUT
GENERALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY
TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO NORTHERN NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND
ONE INCH SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT PRECIP AMOUNTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. AS MENTIONED BEFORE THIS IS A FAIRLY WARM SYSTEM WITH
HIGH SNOW LEVELS...MAINLY ABOVE 7500 FEET. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL SPREAD TO ROUGHLY JUST SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS BY LATE MONDAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO AND
MOHAVE COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MOST OF THE AREA WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY BUT IT WILL PROBABLY BE ENDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NOW OPEN
WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT BY WEDNESDAY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN. THIS RIDGING MAY BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER UPPER LOW POTENTIALLY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE MONDAY-TUESDAY SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/LOCATION IS LOW. TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG
TERM WILL GENERALLY STILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BUT MUCH COOLER
THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND OR DAMAGE
SATURDAY.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 241027
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
230 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE TODAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA WITH
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW MAINLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

WEAK CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL BE A KEY INSTIGATOR IN UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK IS NOW SPINNING OFF THE BAJA
COAST WHERE IT WILL MEANDER FOR A COUPLE DAYS. MEANWHILE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE HAS NUDGED INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH 588 DM+
HEIGHTS SITTING JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.  AS THE
CLOSED LOW SINKS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL NOSE
FURTHER INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SET UP A CLASSIC REX BLOCK PATTERN
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA WITH A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OFF THE BAJA COAST.  THE END
RESULT WILL BE MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEEKEND.  FORECAST
HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

BESIDES THE WARM TEMPERATURES...THE ONLY NOTABLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE THE WINDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF RIDGES AND
TERRAIN FEATURES. I ANTICIPATE THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND BE STRONGEST DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAUGHLIN/BULLHEAD CITY AND NEEDLES. A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY FOR THESE WINDS.
OTHERWISE...ENJOY A VERY MILD WEEKEND!

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THIS LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD WITH TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS
IMPACTING THE AREA. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A CLOSED LOW OFF BAJA MONDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS BUT
GENERALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY
TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO NORTHERN NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND
ONE INCH SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT PRECIP AMOUNTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. AS MENTIONED BEFORE THIS IS A FAIRLY WARM SYSTEM WITH
HIGH SNOW LEVELS...MAINLY ABOVE 7500 FEET. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL SPREAD TO ROUGHLY JUST SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS BY LATE MONDAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO AND
MOHAVE COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MOST OF THE AREA WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY BUT IT WILL PROBABLY BE ENDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NOW OPEN
WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT BY WEDNESDAY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN. THIS RIDGING MAY BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER UPPER LOW POTENTIALLY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE MONDAY-TUESDAY SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/LOCATION IS LOW. TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG
TERM WILL GENERALLY STILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BUT MUCH COOLER
THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH 17Z AS
WIND DIRECTION BATTLES BETWEEN SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE AND MORE
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WIND. BY 17Z...WIND SHOULD FAVOR A MORE
NORTHEAST DIRECTION AND MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES....POSSIBLY BETWEEN 15
AND 20KTS. WINDS WILL EASE AND RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE
OVERNIGHT. RAIN AND REDUCED CIGS REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTH WIND 10-20 KTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
AND IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
AFFECTING THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTS PUSHING 35 KTS
BETWEEN KIFP AND KHII. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT PROSPECT FOR RAIN AND LOW CIGS ON MONDAY NIGHT
OR TUESDAY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND OR DAMAGE
SATURDAY.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER















000
FXUS65 KVEF 241027
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
230 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE TODAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA WITH
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW MAINLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

WEAK CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL BE A KEY INSTIGATOR IN UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK IS NOW SPINNING OFF THE BAJA
COAST WHERE IT WILL MEANDER FOR A COUPLE DAYS. MEANWHILE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE HAS NUDGED INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH 588 DM+
HEIGHTS SITTING JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.  AS THE
CLOSED LOW SINKS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL NOSE
FURTHER INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SET UP A CLASSIC REX BLOCK PATTERN
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA WITH A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OFF THE BAJA COAST.  THE END
RESULT WILL BE MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEEKEND.  FORECAST
HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

BESIDES THE WARM TEMPERATURES...THE ONLY NOTABLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE THE WINDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF RIDGES AND
TERRAIN FEATURES. I ANTICIPATE THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND BE STRONGEST DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAUGHLIN/BULLHEAD CITY AND NEEDLES. A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY FOR THESE WINDS.
OTHERWISE...ENJOY A VERY MILD WEEKEND!

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THIS LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD WITH TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS
IMPACTING THE AREA. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A CLOSED LOW OFF BAJA MONDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS BUT
GENERALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY
TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO NORTHERN NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND
ONE INCH SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT PRECIP AMOUNTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. AS MENTIONED BEFORE THIS IS A FAIRLY WARM SYSTEM WITH
HIGH SNOW LEVELS...MAINLY ABOVE 7500 FEET. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL SPREAD TO ROUGHLY JUST SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS BY LATE MONDAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO AND
MOHAVE COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MOST OF THE AREA WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY BUT IT WILL PROBABLY BE ENDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NOW OPEN
WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT BY WEDNESDAY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN. THIS RIDGING MAY BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER UPPER LOW POTENTIALLY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE MONDAY-TUESDAY SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/LOCATION IS LOW. TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG
TERM WILL GENERALLY STILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BUT MUCH COOLER
THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH 17Z AS
WIND DIRECTION BATTLES BETWEEN SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE AND MORE
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WIND. BY 17Z...WIND SHOULD FAVOR A MORE
NORTHEAST DIRECTION AND MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES....POSSIBLY BETWEEN 15
AND 20KTS. WINDS WILL EASE AND RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE
OVERNIGHT. RAIN AND REDUCED CIGS REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTH WIND 10-20 KTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
AND IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
AFFECTING THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTS PUSHING 35 KTS
BETWEEN KIFP AND KHII. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT PROSPECT FOR RAIN AND LOW CIGS ON MONDAY NIGHT
OR TUESDAY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND OR DAMAGE
SATURDAY.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
















000
FXUS65 KVEF 240401
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
800 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE SATURDAY.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND. A STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA WITH RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING
NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING. THESE NORTH WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG
THE COLORADO RIVER WHERE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN STRENGTH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FORECAST FOR TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN EXCELLENT
SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES OVER NORTHERN BAJA MEXICO AN ANOTHER
OVER UTAH THIS AFTERNOON WILL COME TOGETHER AND FORM INTO A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE,
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC NOSES ITS WAY IN ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN/PAC NW DEVELOPING A REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
SUNDAY.

CONCERN FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL THE DEVELOPMENT OF NORTH
WINDS TONIGHT, PEAKING DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY.
DECIDED ON A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LAKE MEAD NRA AND COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 9 AM AND 7 PM PST SATURDAY. STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED FROM DAVIS DAM SOUTH THROUGH THE MOHAVE VALLEY WITH GUSTS
PEAKING AROUND 40 MPH. STILL LOOKS WINDY IN THE LAUGHLIN/BULLHEAD
CITY AREA SUNDAY. AWAY FROM THE LAKE MEAD NRA AND CO RIVER VALLEY
MOST LOCALES CAN EXPECT NORTH BREEZES GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH SATURDAY
WITH LESS WIND SUNDAY.

WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER DEVELOPING REX
BLOCK.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

REX BLOCK BREAKS DOWN MONDAY WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OPENING
UP AND LIFTING CLOSED LOW NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. QPF GUIDANCE SHOWS RAIN DEVELOPING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A DECENT SWATH OF RAIN
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. GFS FORECAST
PW VALUES FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY UPWARDS OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
BASED ON LATE JANUARY CLIMATOLOGY THREE QUARTERS PLACES US NEAR THE
99TH PERCENTILE OR A +3 STANDARDIZED ANOMALY.

FROM RECENT HISTORY OUR RAIN EVENT ON JANUARY 11 THE OBSERVED PW
VALUE AT LAS VEGAS THAT MORNING WAS THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

STILL LOOKS LIKE SNOW LEVELS WILL STAY AT AND ABOVE 7000 OR 7500
FEET DUE TO SUBTROPICAL INFLUENCES.

DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTIES/LOW CONFIDENCE DID NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE GOING
DOWNSLOPE AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECTING A WIND DIRECTION
SHIFT TO THE NORTH LATE EVENING, POSSIBLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS ARE NOT TOO CONCERNING AND ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 10 KTS TONIGHT. AFTER 17Z SATURDAY, WIND DIRECTION
SHOULD FAVOR A MORE NORTHEAST DIRECTION WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20
KTS. SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT PROSPECT FOR RAIN
AND LOW CIGS IS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTH WIND 10-20 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
AND IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT/SATURDAY. STRONGEST WINDS
SATURDAY WILL AFFECT THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTS PUSHING 35
KTS BETWEEN KIFP AND KHII. SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE NEXT PROSPECT FOR RAIN AND LOW CIGS IS MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND OR DAMAGE
SATURDAY.
&&

$$

PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER













000
FXUS65 KVEF 240401
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
800 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE SATURDAY.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND. A STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA WITH RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING
NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING. THESE NORTH WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG
THE COLORADO RIVER WHERE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN STRENGTH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FORECAST FOR TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN EXCELLENT
SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES OVER NORTHERN BAJA MEXICO AN ANOTHER
OVER UTAH THIS AFTERNOON WILL COME TOGETHER AND FORM INTO A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE,
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC NOSES ITS WAY IN ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN/PAC NW DEVELOPING A REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
SUNDAY.

CONCERN FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL THE DEVELOPMENT OF NORTH
WINDS TONIGHT, PEAKING DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY.
DECIDED ON A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LAKE MEAD NRA AND COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 9 AM AND 7 PM PST SATURDAY. STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED FROM DAVIS DAM SOUTH THROUGH THE MOHAVE VALLEY WITH GUSTS
PEAKING AROUND 40 MPH. STILL LOOKS WINDY IN THE LAUGHLIN/BULLHEAD
CITY AREA SUNDAY. AWAY FROM THE LAKE MEAD NRA AND CO RIVER VALLEY
MOST LOCALES CAN EXPECT NORTH BREEZES GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH SATURDAY
WITH LESS WIND SUNDAY.

WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER DEVELOPING REX
BLOCK.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

REX BLOCK BREAKS DOWN MONDAY WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OPENING
UP AND LIFTING CLOSED LOW NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. QPF GUIDANCE SHOWS RAIN DEVELOPING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A DECENT SWATH OF RAIN
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. GFS FORECAST
PW VALUES FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY UPWARDS OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
BASED ON LATE JANUARY CLIMATOLOGY THREE QUARTERS PLACES US NEAR THE
99TH PERCENTILE OR A +3 STANDARDIZED ANOMALY.

FROM RECENT HISTORY OUR RAIN EVENT ON JANUARY 11 THE OBSERVED PW
VALUE AT LAS VEGAS THAT MORNING WAS THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

STILL LOOKS LIKE SNOW LEVELS WILL STAY AT AND ABOVE 7000 OR 7500
FEET DUE TO SUBTROPICAL INFLUENCES.

DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTIES/LOW CONFIDENCE DID NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE GOING
DOWNSLOPE AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECTING A WIND DIRECTION
SHIFT TO THE NORTH LATE EVENING, POSSIBLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS ARE NOT TOO CONCERNING AND ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 10 KTS TONIGHT. AFTER 17Z SATURDAY, WIND DIRECTION
SHOULD FAVOR A MORE NORTHEAST DIRECTION WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20
KTS. SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT PROSPECT FOR RAIN
AND LOW CIGS IS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTH WIND 10-20 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
AND IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT/SATURDAY. STRONGEST WINDS
SATURDAY WILL AFFECT THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTS PUSHING 35
KTS BETWEEN KIFP AND KHII. SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE NEXT PROSPECT FOR RAIN AND LOW CIGS IS MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND OR DAMAGE
SATURDAY.
&&

$$

PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER












000
FXUS65 KVEF 232259
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
259 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE SATURDAY.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND. A STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA WITH RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES OVER NORTHERN BAJA MEXICO AN ANOTHER
OVER UTAH THIS AFTERNOON WILL COME TOGETHER AND FORM INTO A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE,
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC NOSES ITS WAY IN ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN/PAC NW DEVELOPING A REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
SUNDAY.

CONCERN FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL THE DEVELOPMENT OF NORTH
WINDS TONIGHT, PEAKING DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY.
DECIDED ON A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LAKE MEAD NRA AND COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 9 AM AND 7 PM PST SATURDAY. STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED FROM DAVIS DAM SOUTH THROUGH THE MOHAVE VALLEY WITH GUSTS
PEAKING AROUND 40 MPH. STILL LOOKS WINDY IN THE LAUGHLIN/BULLHEAD
CITY AREA SUNDAY. AWAY FROM THE LAKE MEAD NRA AND CO RIVER VALLEY
MOST LOCALES CAN EXPECT NORTH BREEZES GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH SATURDAY
WITH LESS WIND SUNDAY.

WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER DEVELOPING REX
BLOCK.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

REX BLOCK BREAKS DOWN MONDAY WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OPENING
UP AND LIFTING CLOSED LOW NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. QPF GUIDANCE SHOWS RAIN DEVELOPING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A DECENT SWATH OF RAIN
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. GFS FORECAST
PW VALUES FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY UPWARDS OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
BASED ON LATE JANUARY CLIMATOLOGY THREE QUARTERS PLACES US NEAR THE
99TH PERCENTILE OR A +3 STANDARDIZED ANOMALY.

FROM RECENT HISTORY OUR RAIN EVENT ON JANUARY 11 THE OBSERVED PW
VALUE AT LAS VEGAS THAT MORNING WAS THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

STILL LOOKS LIKE SNOW LEVELS WILL STAY AT AND ABOVE 7000 OR 7500
FEET DUE TO SUBTROPICAL INFLUENCES.

DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTIES/LOW CONFIDENCE DID NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE GOING
DOWNSLOPE AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECTING A WIND DIRECTION
SHIFT TO THE NORTH LATE EVENING, POSSIBLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS ARE NOT TOO CONCERNING AND ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 10 KTS TONIGHT. AFTER 17Z SATURDAY, WIND DIRECTION
SHOULD FAVOR A MORE NORTHEAST DIRECTION WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20
KTS. SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT PROSPECT FOR RAIN
AND LOW CIGS IS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTH WIND 10-20 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
AND IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT/SATURDAY. STRONGEST WINDS
SATURDAY WILL AFFECT THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTS PUSHING 35
KTS BETWEEN KIFP AND KHII. SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE NEXT PROSPECT FOR RAIN AND LOW CIGS IS MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND OR DAMAGE
SATURDAY.
&&

$$

PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER










000
FXUS65 KVEF 231752 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
952 AM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AND REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE SATURDAY WITH STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL
TODAY...THEN WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A STORM
COULD BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
AFFECT MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER THE REST OF THE
DAY. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE, INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

ELSEWHERE, SKIES WILL BE SUNNY WITH A TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

MAIN ISSUE SATURDAY WILL BE NORTH WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY. WILL MAKE FINAL CALL ON ANY PRODUCT THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY
NEXT WEEK MODELS SIMILAR LIFTING TROUGH NORTHWARD FROM THE BAJA
REGION WITH RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT MONDAY
AFTERNOON THEN SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. WILL MAKE ANY CHANGES ON THAT PART
OF THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.
&&

.AVIATION...TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE EARLY
EVENING THEN A WIND DIRECTION CHANGE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED IN THE
LATE EVENING, POSSIBLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT TOO
CONCERNING AND ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH LEAVING BEHIND CLEAR SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE NEXT PROSPECT FOR RAIN AND LOW CIGS IS
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTH WINDS 10-15 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
AND IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE DESERTS. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED AREA
WIDE SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR WEST TO EAST TODAY AND REMAIN CLEAR
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT PROSPECT FOR RAIN AND LOW CIGS IS
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...226 AM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AND
HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO CLEAR OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING QUICKLY AND ARE
ON TRACK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. FOR
LAS VEGAS, THICKER CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND MAY HANG
AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SOME INSULATION AND KEEP TEMPS FROM
DROPPING TO FAR.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS SKIES CLEAR
BY THE AFTERNOON AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE RETURNS. WINDS WILL BE NORTH
10-15 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TODAY AND IN THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN MOST THE DESERT
LOCATIONS.

MODELS SHOW THE BEGINNING SIGNS OF A REX BLOCK PATTERN FORMING ON
SATURDAY WITH PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE REACHING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA/NEVADA WHILE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER BAJA AND THEN MOVES
OUT INTO THE PACIFIC. SATURDAY ITSELF LOOKS LIKE A BREEZY DAY AREA
WIDE WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE
AND GUSTY. A PORTION OF THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY COULD SEE ANOTHER
STRONG WIND EVENT...BELOW HOOVER DAM DOWN TO LAKE HAVASU. CHANCES
ARE...A LAKE WIND OR REGULAR WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED IN THIS
AREA. WILL GIVE THE NEXT SHIFT A CHANCE TO LOOK AT MORNING MODEL
DATA BEFORE DECIDING ON WHICH PRODUCT, IF ANY, IS APPROPRIATE.

BY SUNDAY MORNING, A CLASSIC REX BLOCK IS IN PLACE WITH DRY MILD
CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONFINED TO
AREAS NEAR THE LOW...WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE WEST OF BAJA. THE
BLOCKING PATTERN IS SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AND ALREADY BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND 10
OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A CLOSED LOW OFF BAJA IS FORECAST TO TAP INTO SOME DECENT
MOISTURE...SPREADING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH INTO MAINLY SAN
BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND TRACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO NEVADA TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BOTH PERIODS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY ORIGIN OF THIS
AIR MASS...SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS UNSETTLED
PERIOD...MAINLY ABOVE 8000 FEET. MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY
WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PUSHES IN. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE AREA DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE RIDGE WHILE THE GFS STARTS TO BRING ANOTHER TROUGH IN FROM THE
WEST WITH SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW I KEPT THE FORECAST DRY
WITH SOME HIGH GHOST POPS IN THE GRIDS. AFTER THE RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER MOVING IN.
SOME WARMING IS THEN EXPECTED UNDER THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
SALMEN/HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 231752 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
952 AM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AND REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE SATURDAY WITH STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL
TODAY...THEN WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A STORM
COULD BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
AFFECT MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER THE REST OF THE
DAY. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE, INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

ELSEWHERE, SKIES WILL BE SUNNY WITH A TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

MAIN ISSUE SATURDAY WILL BE NORTH WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY. WILL MAKE FINAL CALL ON ANY PRODUCT THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY
NEXT WEEK MODELS SIMILAR LIFTING TROUGH NORTHWARD FROM THE BAJA
REGION WITH RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT MONDAY
AFTERNOON THEN SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. WILL MAKE ANY CHANGES ON THAT PART
OF THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.
&&

.AVIATION...TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE EARLY
EVENING THEN A WIND DIRECTION CHANGE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED IN THE
LATE EVENING, POSSIBLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT TOO
CONCERNING AND ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH LEAVING BEHIND CLEAR SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE NEXT PROSPECT FOR RAIN AND LOW CIGS IS
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTH WINDS 10-15 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
AND IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE DESERTS. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED AREA
WIDE SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR WEST TO EAST TODAY AND REMAIN CLEAR
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT PROSPECT FOR RAIN AND LOW CIGS IS
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...226 AM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AND
HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO CLEAR OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING QUICKLY AND ARE
ON TRACK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. FOR
LAS VEGAS, THICKER CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND MAY HANG
AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SOME INSULATION AND KEEP TEMPS FROM
DROPPING TO FAR.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS SKIES CLEAR
BY THE AFTERNOON AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE RETURNS. WINDS WILL BE NORTH
10-15 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TODAY AND IN THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN MOST THE DESERT
LOCATIONS.

MODELS SHOW THE BEGINNING SIGNS OF A REX BLOCK PATTERN FORMING ON
SATURDAY WITH PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE REACHING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA/NEVADA WHILE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER BAJA AND THEN MOVES
OUT INTO THE PACIFIC. SATURDAY ITSELF LOOKS LIKE A BREEZY DAY AREA
WIDE WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE
AND GUSTY. A PORTION OF THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY COULD SEE ANOTHER
STRONG WIND EVENT...BELOW HOOVER DAM DOWN TO LAKE HAVASU. CHANCES
ARE...A LAKE WIND OR REGULAR WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED IN THIS
AREA. WILL GIVE THE NEXT SHIFT A CHANCE TO LOOK AT MORNING MODEL
DATA BEFORE DECIDING ON WHICH PRODUCT, IF ANY, IS APPROPRIATE.

BY SUNDAY MORNING, A CLASSIC REX BLOCK IS IN PLACE WITH DRY MILD
CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONFINED TO
AREAS NEAR THE LOW...WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE WEST OF BAJA. THE
BLOCKING PATTERN IS SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AND ALREADY BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND 10
OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A CLOSED LOW OFF BAJA IS FORECAST TO TAP INTO SOME DECENT
MOISTURE...SPREADING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH INTO MAINLY SAN
BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND TRACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO NEVADA TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BOTH PERIODS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY ORIGIN OF THIS
AIR MASS...SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS UNSETTLED
PERIOD...MAINLY ABOVE 8000 FEET. MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY
WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PUSHES IN. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE AREA DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE RIDGE WHILE THE GFS STARTS TO BRING ANOTHER TROUGH IN FROM THE
WEST WITH SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW I KEPT THE FORECAST DRY
WITH SOME HIGH GHOST POPS IN THE GRIDS. AFTER THE RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER MOVING IN.
SOME WARMING IS THEN EXPECTED UNDER THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
SALMEN/HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 231026
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
226 AM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AND REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE SATURDAY WITH STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL
TODAY...THEN WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A STORM
COULD BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AND
HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO CLEAR OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING QUICKLY AND ARE
ON TRACK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. FOR
LAS VEGAS, THICKER CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND MAY HANG
AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SOME INSULATION AND KEEP TEMPS FROM
DROPPING TO FAR.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS SKIES CLEAR
BY THE AFTERNOON AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE RETURNS. WINDS WILL BE NORTH
10-15 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TODAY AND IN THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN MOST THE DESERT
LOCATIONS.

MODELS SHOW THE BEGINNING SIGNS OF A REX BLOCK PATTERN FORMING ON
SATURDAY WITH PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE REACHING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA/NEVADA WHILE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER BAJA AND THEN MOVES
OUT INTO THE PACIFIC. SATURDAY ITSELF LOOKS LIKE A BREEZY DAY AREA
WIDE WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE
AND GUSTY. A PORTION OF THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY COULD SEE ANOTHER
STRONG WIND EVENT...BELOW HOOVER DAM DOWN TO LAKE HAVASU. CHANCES
ARE...A LAKE WIND OR REGULAR WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED IN THIS
AREA. WILL GIVE THE NEXT SHIFT A CHANCE TO LOOK AT MORNING MODEL
DATA BEFORE DECIDING ON WHICH PRODUCT, IF ANY, IS APPROPRIATE.

BY SUNDAY MORNING, A CLASSIC REX BLOCK IS IN PLACE WITH DRY MILD
CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONFINED TO
AREAS NEAR THE LOW...WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE WEST OF BAJA. THE
BLOCKING PATTERN IS SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AND ALREADY BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND 10
OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A CLOSED LOW OFF BAJA IS FORECAST TO TAP INTO SOME DECENT
MOISTURE...SPREADING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH INTO MAINLY SAN
BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND TRACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO NEVADA TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BOTH PERIODS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY ORIGIN OF THIS
AIR MASS...SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS UNSETTLED
PERIOD...MAINLY ABOVE 8000 FEET. MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY
WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PUSHES IN. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE AREA DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE RIDGE WHILE THE GFS STARTS TO BRING ANOTHER TROUGH IN FROM THE
WEST WITH SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW I KEPT THE FORECAST DRY
WITH SOME HIGH GHOST POPS IN THE GRIDS. AFTER THE RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER MOVING IN.
SOME WARMING IS THEN EXPECTED UNDER THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE EARLY
EVENING THEN A WIND DIRECTION CHANGE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 7 AND 10 PM TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT TOO CONCERNING AND
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS. HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
CLEAR LATER THIS MORNING AND SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE NEXT PROSPECT FOR RAIN AND LOW CIGS IS MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTH WINDS 10-15 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
AND IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE DESERTS. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED AREA
WIDE SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR WEST TO EAST TODAY AND REMAIN CLEAR
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT PROSPECT FOR RAIN AND LOW CIGS IS
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SALMEN/HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 230454 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
854 PM PST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. A CHANGE
TO WETTER CONDITIONS MAY BE ON TAP DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...NO WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A WEAK PACIFIC
UPPER DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO
UPDATES ARE NEEDED OR PLANNED.
&&

.AVIATION...TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY FAVORING
SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT AND NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY THEN CLEARING.
THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY. OUTSIDE
OF WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING FROM WEST
TO EAST. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS TO
THE REGION SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...221 PM PST...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THIN HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TOMORROW AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK
BEFORE ISSUING ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO EVOLVE. THE PERIOD
REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
OFF OF THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA. SUNDAY REMAINS THE WARM DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPS WILL BE 10 TO AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MONDAY IS THE TRANSITION DAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW BEGINNING
TO MOVE TO THE NORTH...PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. THE SIMILARITIES IN THE MODELS
ARE WITH THE CLOSED LOW OPENING UP AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH. THE 00Z
ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW FURTHER OFFSHORE AND IS A DRIER SOLUTION. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AS IT TAPS A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. BUT THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES ARE NOT INDICATING NOTABLE PRECIP...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AND SO DO POPS. IN ANY EVENT...THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUITE WARM AND
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 8000 FEET. BY WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP A MOIST...CLOUDY PATTERN IN THE FORECAST.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED. &&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...SALMEN
PREV SHORT TERM DISC...WOLCOTT
PREV LONG TERM DISC...CZYZYK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER














000
FXUS65 KVEF 230454 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
854 PM PST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. A CHANGE
TO WETTER CONDITIONS MAY BE ON TAP DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...NO WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A WEAK PACIFIC
UPPER DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO
UPDATES ARE NEEDED OR PLANNED.
&&

.AVIATION...TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY FAVORING
SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT AND NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY THEN CLEARING.
THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY. OUTSIDE
OF WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING FROM WEST
TO EAST. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS TO
THE REGION SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...221 PM PST...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THIN HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TOMORROW AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK
BEFORE ISSUING ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO EVOLVE. THE PERIOD
REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
OFF OF THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA. SUNDAY REMAINS THE WARM DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPS WILL BE 10 TO AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MONDAY IS THE TRANSITION DAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW BEGINNING
TO MOVE TO THE NORTH...PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. THE SIMILARITIES IN THE MODELS
ARE WITH THE CLOSED LOW OPENING UP AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH. THE 00Z
ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW FURTHER OFFSHORE AND IS A DRIER SOLUTION. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AS IT TAPS A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. BUT THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES ARE NOT INDICATING NOTABLE PRECIP...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AND SO DO POPS. IN ANY EVENT...THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUITE WARM AND
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 8000 FEET. BY WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP A MOIST...CLOUDY PATTERN IN THE FORECAST.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED. &&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...SALMEN
PREV SHORT TERM DISC...WOLCOTT
PREV LONG TERM DISC...CZYZYK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER















000
FXUS65 KVEF 222221
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
221 PM PST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. A CHANGE
TO WETTER CONDITIONS MAY BE ON TAP DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THIN HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TOMORROW AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK
BEFORE ISSUING ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO EVOLVE. THE PERIOD
REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
OFF OF THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA. SUNDAY REMAINS THE WARM DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPS WILL BE 10 TO AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MONDAY IS THE TRANSITION DAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW BEGINNING
TO MOVE TO THE NORTH...PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. THE SIMILARITIES IN THE MODELS
ARE WITH THE CLOSED LOW OPENING UP AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH. THE 00Z
ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW FURTHER OFFSHORE AND IS A DRIER SOLUTION. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AS IT TAPS A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. BUT THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES ARE NOT INDICATING NOTABLE PRECIP...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AND SO DO POPS. IN ANY EVENT...THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUITE WARM AND
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 8000 FEET. BY WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP A MOIST...CLOUDY PATTERN IN THE FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...DECREASING NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THEN TYPICAL
DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY FAVORING SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT
AND NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF WINDS...NO
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...DECREASING NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAKER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. ANOTHER
WEAK SYSTEM WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE
REGION SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............CZYZYK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER












000
FXUS65 KVEF 222221
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
221 PM PST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. A CHANGE
TO WETTER CONDITIONS MAY BE ON TAP DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THIN HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TOMORROW AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK
BEFORE ISSUING ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO EVOLVE. THE PERIOD
REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
OFF OF THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA. SUNDAY REMAINS THE WARM DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPS WILL BE 10 TO AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MONDAY IS THE TRANSITION DAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW BEGINNING
TO MOVE TO THE NORTH...PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. THE SIMILARITIES IN THE MODELS
ARE WITH THE CLOSED LOW OPENING UP AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH. THE 00Z
ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW FURTHER OFFSHORE AND IS A DRIER SOLUTION. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AS IT TAPS A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. BUT THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES ARE NOT INDICATING NOTABLE PRECIP...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AND SO DO POPS. IN ANY EVENT...THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUITE WARM AND
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 8000 FEET. BY WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP A MOIST...CLOUDY PATTERN IN THE FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...DECREASING NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THEN TYPICAL
DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY FAVORING SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT
AND NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF WINDS...NO
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...DECREASING NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAKER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. ANOTHER
WEAK SYSTEM WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE
REGION SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............CZYZYK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER











000
FXUS65 KVEF 222211
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
211 PM PST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
TO THE AREA TODAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. A CHANGE TO WETTER CONDITIONS
MAY BE ON TAP DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THIN HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TOMORROW AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK
BEFORE ISSUING ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO EVOLVE. THE PERIOD
REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
OFF OF THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA. SUNDAY REMAINS THE WARM DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPS WILL BE 10 TO AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MONDAY IS THE TRANSITION DAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW BEGINNING
TO MOVE TO THE NORTH...PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. THE SIMILARITIES IN THE MODELS
ARE WITH THE CLOSED LOW OPENING UP AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH. THE 00Z
ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW FURTHER OFFSHORE AND IS A DRIER SOLUTION. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AS IT TAPS A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. BUT THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES ARE NOT INDICATING NOTABLE PRECIP...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AND SO DO POPS. IN ANY EVENT...THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUITE WARM AND
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 8000 FEET. BY WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP A MOIST...CLOUDY PATTERN IN THE FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...DECREASING NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THEN TYPICAL
DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY FAVORING SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT
AND NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF WINDS...NO
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...DECREASING NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAKER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. ANOTHER
WEAK SYSTEM WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE
REGION SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............CZYZYK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KVEF 222211
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
211 PM PST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
TO THE AREA TODAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. A CHANGE TO WETTER CONDITIONS
MAY BE ON TAP DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THIN HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TOMORROW AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK
BEFORE ISSUING ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO EVOLVE. THE PERIOD
REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
OFF OF THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA. SUNDAY REMAINS THE WARM DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPS WILL BE 10 TO AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MONDAY IS THE TRANSITION DAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW BEGINNING
TO MOVE TO THE NORTH...PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. THE SIMILARITIES IN THE MODELS
ARE WITH THE CLOSED LOW OPENING UP AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH. THE 00Z
ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW FURTHER OFFSHORE AND IS A DRIER SOLUTION. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AS IT TAPS A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. BUT THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES ARE NOT INDICATING NOTABLE PRECIP...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AND SO DO POPS. IN ANY EVENT...THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUITE WARM AND
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 8000 FEET. BY WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP A MOIST...CLOUDY PATTERN IN THE FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...DECREASING NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THEN TYPICAL
DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY FAVORING SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT
AND NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF WINDS...NO
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...DECREASING NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAKER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. ANOTHER
WEAK SYSTEM WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE
REGION SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............CZYZYK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KVEF 221612
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
812 AM PST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL LINGER IN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY TODAY WITH LESS WIND EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. A WEAK PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA TODAY WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A
WAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE SKY
GRIDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS
ON TRACK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY FAVORING SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT AND NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRIEFLY RISE
TO 8-14 KTS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN FAVORED AREAS
INCLUDING THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OVERALL...SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER
TODAY, MAINLY IN THE 12-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND KIFP. OUTSIDE OF FAVORED AREAS,
EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS AT 6-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. LESS WIND
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY BUT COULD BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
246 AM PST THU JAN 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A BATCH OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH. THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN DRY AND NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST OR EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER TODAY AND TOP OUT NEAR NORMAL. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BUT THERE
SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL ON MORE DAY ON
FRIDAY BUT ABUNDANT AFTERNOON SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP THEM WARM A FEW
DEGREES OVER THURSDAY`S HIGHS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REALLY BEGIN TO
TAKE HOLD SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER CLEAR SKIES. BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO EVOLVE. THE PERIOD
REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
OFF OF THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA. SUNDAY REMAINS THE WARM DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPS WILL BE 10 TO AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MONDAY IS THE TRANSITION DAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW BEGINNING
TO MOVE TO THE NORTH...PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. THE SIMILARITIES IN THE MODELS
ARE WITH THE CLOSED LOW OPENING UP AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH. THE 00Z
ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW FURTHER OFFSHORE AND IS A DRIER SOLUTION. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AS IT TAPS A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. BUT THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES ARE NOT INDICATING NOTABLE PRECIP...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AND SO DO POPS. IN ANY EVENT...THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUITE WARM AND
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 8000 FEET. BY WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP A MOIST...CLOUDY PATTERN IN THE FORECAST.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
PREV DISCUSSION...SALMEN/CZYZYK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER










000
FXUS65 KVEF 221612
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
812 AM PST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL LINGER IN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY TODAY WITH LESS WIND EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. A WEAK PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA TODAY WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A
WAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE SKY
GRIDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS
ON TRACK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY FAVORING SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT AND NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRIEFLY RISE
TO 8-14 KTS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN FAVORED AREAS
INCLUDING THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OVERALL...SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER
TODAY, MAINLY IN THE 12-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND KIFP. OUTSIDE OF FAVORED AREAS,
EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS AT 6-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. LESS WIND
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY BUT COULD BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
246 AM PST THU JAN 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A BATCH OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH. THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN DRY AND NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST OR EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER TODAY AND TOP OUT NEAR NORMAL. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BUT THERE
SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL ON MORE DAY ON
FRIDAY BUT ABUNDANT AFTERNOON SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP THEM WARM A FEW
DEGREES OVER THURSDAY`S HIGHS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REALLY BEGIN TO
TAKE HOLD SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER CLEAR SKIES. BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO EVOLVE. THE PERIOD
REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
OFF OF THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA. SUNDAY REMAINS THE WARM DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPS WILL BE 10 TO AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MONDAY IS THE TRANSITION DAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW BEGINNING
TO MOVE TO THE NORTH...PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. THE SIMILARITIES IN THE MODELS
ARE WITH THE CLOSED LOW OPENING UP AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH. THE 00Z
ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW FURTHER OFFSHORE AND IS A DRIER SOLUTION. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AS IT TAPS A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. BUT THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES ARE NOT INDICATING NOTABLE PRECIP...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AND SO DO POPS. IN ANY EVENT...THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUITE WARM AND
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 8000 FEET. BY WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP A MOIST...CLOUDY PATTERN IN THE FORECAST.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
PREV DISCUSSION...SALMEN/CZYZYK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER











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