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000
FXUS65 KVEF 242143
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
243 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PUSH OF MOISTURE UP THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL
BRING MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE MOJAVE DESERT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PUSH OF
MOISTURE WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
ON SUNDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE LOOP AND AREA
RADARS SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER YAVAPAI AND LA PAZ
COUNTIES AND BEGINNING TO INVADE MOHAVE COUNTY AT 230 PM. SURFACE
OBS SHOWED SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND HOT TEMPERATURES. CONCERN FOR THIS
PACKAGE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A PUSH OF MOISTURE COMING FROM THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWED A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NEAR THE TIP OF THE BAJA
EARLIER...AND THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE GULF AND EXTENDING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA. MODELS SHOW STRONG SOUTH WINDS PUSHING UP THE COLORADO
RIVER OVERNIGHT...WITH A RAPID INCREASE IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND
DESTABILIZATION. THE AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PUSH
LIKE THIS IS TOUGH TO DETERMINE MUCH AHEAD OF TIME...BUT RAISED POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN DESERTS AND ALSO DEWPOINTS AS WELL. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO EXPAND NORTHWEST OF I-15 ON SATURDAY BUT
STILL STAY OUT OF ESMERALDA AND INYO COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE AREA AND ALONG
WITH IT AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE IN
PLACE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OVER MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE STORMS ARE
MOST LIKELY. WHILE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS CLARK
AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...INSTABILITY SEEMS MARGINAL
WITH TERRAIN OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LIKELY REQUIRED TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING AFTER THAT AS DRIER CONDITIONS BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A PUSH OF MOISTURE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TERMINAL
AREA...WITH A BETTER CHANCE IN THE PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDOR.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE NEAR AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL ON
SATURDAY...THEN SPREAD TO ALL CORRIDORS ON SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TERMINAL THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME CHANCE OF A PERIOD OF EAST
WINDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 15 BY FRIDAY MORNING...TO AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM YUCCA VALLEY TO RACHEL ON
SATURDAY...AND THEN AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

MORGAN/BERC

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 241539
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
839 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREADING
FROM NORTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY AND FRIDAY UP INTO MOST OF THE MOJAVE
DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN BY SUNDAY. AFTER ANOTHER HOT DAY
TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOME AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
&&

.UPDATE...FORECAST TRENDS LOOK REASONABLE THIS MORNING. NO UPDATE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
242 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM.
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CLARK AND
EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SPREADING MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH INTO LINCOLN
COUNTY SATURDAY SO I INCREASED POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THERE.
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND STABLE
EVEN SATURDAY. ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WHAT WAS SEEN WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE
SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS AND 700 MB TEMPS SO WE MAY BE A DEGREE
COOLER. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL SEVERAL DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE EXPECTED. WHILE
THIS WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE, ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ORIGINATING IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY DRIFTING INTO THE LOWER TERRAIN LATER IN THE
DAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED FOR LATE JULY WHICH
WILL KEEP INSTABILITY PARAMETERS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND, BUT
BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR LAS VEGAS DO SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
SUPPORTING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET AN OUTFLOW COLLISION OR TWO.
THEREFORE I EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO INCLUDE THE
VALLEYS OF CLARK...EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO AND MOHAVE COUNTIES FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY TUESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
LOCATED CLOSER TO ARIZONA RESULTING IN ANOTHER DOWNTURN IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS SUNDAY ONWARD...WHILE SLOWLY RISING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK AS THINGS DRY OUT AGAIN.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND MAY BRIEFLY FAVOR
RUNWAY CONFIG 4 DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
PEACH SPRINGS AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS AND ALSO OVER THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
MOHAVE COUNTY TODAY BUT MAY SPREAD INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF CLARK AND
EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MORGAN
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KVEF 241539
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
839 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREADING
FROM NORTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY AND FRIDAY UP INTO MOST OF THE MOJAVE
DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN BY SUNDAY. AFTER ANOTHER HOT DAY
TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOME AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
&&

.UPDATE...FORECAST TRENDS LOOK REASONABLE THIS MORNING. NO UPDATE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
242 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM.
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CLARK AND
EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SPREADING MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH INTO LINCOLN
COUNTY SATURDAY SO I INCREASED POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THERE.
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND STABLE
EVEN SATURDAY. ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WHAT WAS SEEN WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE
SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS AND 700 MB TEMPS SO WE MAY BE A DEGREE
COOLER. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL SEVERAL DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE EXPECTED. WHILE
THIS WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE, ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ORIGINATING IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY DRIFTING INTO THE LOWER TERRAIN LATER IN THE
DAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED FOR LATE JULY WHICH
WILL KEEP INSTABILITY PARAMETERS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND, BUT
BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR LAS VEGAS DO SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
SUPPORTING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET AN OUTFLOW COLLISION OR TWO.
THEREFORE I EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO INCLUDE THE
VALLEYS OF CLARK...EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO AND MOHAVE COUNTIES FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY TUESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
LOCATED CLOSER TO ARIZONA RESULTING IN ANOTHER DOWNTURN IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS SUNDAY ONWARD...WHILE SLOWLY RISING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK AS THINGS DRY OUT AGAIN.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND MAY BRIEFLY FAVOR
RUNWAY CONFIG 4 DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
PEACH SPRINGS AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS AND ALSO OVER THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
MOHAVE COUNTY TODAY BUT MAY SPREAD INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF CLARK AND
EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MORGAN
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 240943
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
242 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREADING
FROM NORTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY AND FRIDAY UP INTO MOST OF THE MOJAVE
DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN BY SUNDAY. AFTER ANOTHER HOT DAY
TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOME AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM.
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CLARK AND
EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SPREADING MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH INTO LINCOLN
COUNTY SATURDAY SO I INCREASED POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THERE.
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND STABLE
EVEN SATURDAY. ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WHAT WAS SEEN WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE
SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS AND 700 MB TEMPS SO WE MAY BE A DEGREE
COOLER. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL SEVERAL DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE EXPECTED. WHILE
THIS WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE, ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ORIGINATING IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY DRIFTING INTO THE LOWER TERRAIN LATER IN THE
DAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED FOR LATE JULY WHICH
WILL KEEP INSTABILITY PARAMETERS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND, BUT
BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR LAS VEGAS DO SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
SUPPORTING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET AN OUTFLOW COLLISION OR TWO.
THEREFORE I EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO INCLUDE THE
VALLEYS OF CLARK...EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO AND MOHAVE COUNTIES FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY TUESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED
CLOSER TO ARIZONA RESULTING IN ANOTHER DOWNTURN IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.

THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS SUNDAY ONWARD...WHILE SLOWLY RISING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK AS THINGS DRY OUT AGAIN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND MAY BRIEFLY FAVOR
RUNWAY CONFIG 4 DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
PEACH SPRINGS AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS AND ALSO OVER THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
MOHAVE COUNTY TODAY BUT MAY SPREAD INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF CLARK AND
EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER











000
FXUS65 KVEF 240943
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
242 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREADING
FROM NORTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY AND FRIDAY UP INTO MOST OF THE MOJAVE
DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN BY SUNDAY. AFTER ANOTHER HOT DAY
TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOME AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM.
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CLARK AND
EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SPREADING MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH INTO LINCOLN
COUNTY SATURDAY SO I INCREASED POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THERE.
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND STABLE
EVEN SATURDAY. ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WHAT WAS SEEN WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE
SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS AND 700 MB TEMPS SO WE MAY BE A DEGREE
COOLER. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL SEVERAL DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE EXPECTED. WHILE
THIS WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE, ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ORIGINATING IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY DRIFTING INTO THE LOWER TERRAIN LATER IN THE
DAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED FOR LATE JULY WHICH
WILL KEEP INSTABILITY PARAMETERS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND, BUT
BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR LAS VEGAS DO SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
SUPPORTING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET AN OUTFLOW COLLISION OR TWO.
THEREFORE I EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO INCLUDE THE
VALLEYS OF CLARK...EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO AND MOHAVE COUNTIES FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY TUESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED
CLOSER TO ARIZONA RESULTING IN ANOTHER DOWNTURN IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.

THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS SUNDAY ONWARD...WHILE SLOWLY RISING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK AS THINGS DRY OUT AGAIN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND MAY BRIEFLY FAVOR
RUNWAY CONFIG 4 DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
PEACH SPRINGS AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS AND ALSO OVER THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
MOHAVE COUNTY TODAY BUT MAY SPREAD INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF CLARK AND
EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER










000
FXUS65 KVEF 240415
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
915 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IT
WILL BE DRY ELSEWHERE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND FIVE
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD NORTHWEST INTO
THE MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND FOR AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.UPDATE...THE MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR THURSDAY WAS UPDATED. WE SHOULD
SEE HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THOSE OBSERVED
TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST NAM MOS GUIDANCE AND BUFR SOUNDINGS. THE
00Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL PUSH OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE COMING UP FROM SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO BY
FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD LOWER TEMPS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST TRENDS
LOOK FINE FOR NOW.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
247 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED CLOUD
COVER GENERALLY CONFINED TO MOHAVE COUNTY AT 230 PM WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RADAR RETURNS NOTED. SURFACE OBS SHOWED HOT TEMPERATURES
AND LOCAL SOUTHERLY BREEZES. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE MAKING VERY LITTLE
NORTHWESTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
PRIMARILY IN MOHAVE COUNTY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST EACH DAY...WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND
-2...SO NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUE SATURDAY AS DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOVE ONE INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND MOHAVE COUNTY
WITH THE GREATEST MOISTURE ON SUNDAY. THIS DOES NOT REPRESENT A
SIGNIFICANT MONSOON SURGE BUT BRINGS ENOUGH MOISTURE THAT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEING THE PRIMARY FOCUS. BEYOND
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES SETTLE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL AND
LINGERING MOISTURE BRINGS A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STORMS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND MAY BRIEFLY FAVOR
RUNWAY CONFIG 4 DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
PEACH SPRINGS AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
MOHAVE COUNTY THROUGH FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KNOTS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...ADAIR
PREV DISCUSSION...MORGAN/BERC

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER











000
FXUS65 KVEF 240415
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
915 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IT
WILL BE DRY ELSEWHERE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND FIVE
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD NORTHWEST INTO
THE MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND FOR AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.UPDATE...THE MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR THURSDAY WAS UPDATED. WE SHOULD
SEE HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THOSE OBSERVED
TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST NAM MOS GUIDANCE AND BUFR SOUNDINGS. THE
00Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL PUSH OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE COMING UP FROM SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO BY
FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD LOWER TEMPS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST TRENDS
LOOK FINE FOR NOW.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
247 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED CLOUD
COVER GENERALLY CONFINED TO MOHAVE COUNTY AT 230 PM WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RADAR RETURNS NOTED. SURFACE OBS SHOWED HOT TEMPERATURES
AND LOCAL SOUTHERLY BREEZES. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE MAKING VERY LITTLE
NORTHWESTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
PRIMARILY IN MOHAVE COUNTY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST EACH DAY...WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND
-2...SO NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUE SATURDAY AS DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOVE ONE INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND MOHAVE COUNTY
WITH THE GREATEST MOISTURE ON SUNDAY. THIS DOES NOT REPRESENT A
SIGNIFICANT MONSOON SURGE BUT BRINGS ENOUGH MOISTURE THAT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEING THE PRIMARY FOCUS. BEYOND
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES SETTLE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL AND
LINGERING MOISTURE BRINGS A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STORMS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND MAY BRIEFLY FAVOR
RUNWAY CONFIG 4 DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
PEACH SPRINGS AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
MOHAVE COUNTY THROUGH FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KNOTS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...ADAIR
PREV DISCUSSION...MORGAN/BERC

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER










000
FXUS65 KVEF 232147
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
247 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IT
WILL BE DRY ELSEWHERE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND FIVE
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD NORTHWEST INTO
THE MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND FOR AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED CLOUD
COVER GENERALLY CONFINED TO MOHAVE COUNTY AT 230 PM WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RADAR RETURNS NOTED. SURFACE OBS SHOWED HOT TEMPERATURES
AND LOCAL SOUTHERLY BREEZES. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE MAKING VERY LITTLE
NORTHWESTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
PRIMARILY IN MOHAVE COUNTY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST EACH DAY...WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND
-2...SO NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUE SATURDAY AS DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOVE ONE INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND MOHAVE COUNTY
WITH THE GREATEST MOISTURE ON SUNDAY. THIS DOES NOT REPRESENT A
SIGNIFICANT MONSOON SURGE BUT BRINGS ENOUGH MOISTURE THAT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEING THE PRIMARY FOCUS. BEYOND
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES SETTLE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL AND
LINGERING MOISTURE BRINGS A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STORMS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE PEACH
SPRINGS AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
MOHAVE COUNTY THROUGH FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE...OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

MORGAN/BERC

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 232147
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
247 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IT
WILL BE DRY ELSEWHERE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND FIVE
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD NORTHWEST INTO
THE MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND FOR AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED CLOUD
COVER GENERALLY CONFINED TO MOHAVE COUNTY AT 230 PM WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RADAR RETURNS NOTED. SURFACE OBS SHOWED HOT TEMPERATURES
AND LOCAL SOUTHERLY BREEZES. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE MAKING VERY LITTLE
NORTHWESTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
PRIMARILY IN MOHAVE COUNTY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST EACH DAY...WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND
-2...SO NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUE SATURDAY AS DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOVE ONE INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND MOHAVE COUNTY
WITH THE GREATEST MOISTURE ON SUNDAY. THIS DOES NOT REPRESENT A
SIGNIFICANT MONSOON SURGE BUT BRINGS ENOUGH MOISTURE THAT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEING THE PRIMARY FOCUS. BEYOND
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES SETTLE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL AND
LINGERING MOISTURE BRINGS A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STORMS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE PEACH
SPRINGS AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
MOHAVE COUNTY THROUGH FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE...OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

MORGAN/BERC

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KVEF 231536
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
836 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL LEAD
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA. IT WILL
BE DRY ELSEWHERE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD NORTHWEST INTO THE
MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND FOR AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.UPDATE...QUIET WEATHER THIS MORNING. NO UPDATE PLANNED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
240 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING WILL DEVELOP
STARTING TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BIT OF A MOISTURE INCREASE INTO
THE AREA WITH MOISTURE CREEPING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS
TIME WE ARE KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LIMITED TO MOHAVE COUNTY
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOMETHING SNEAKING INTO NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA DUE TO OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND UNFORESEEN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BECOME BETTER POSITIONED TO
ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN MONSOON MOISTURE DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING ONE INCH BEGIN TO CREEP
INTO OUR NORTHWEST ARIZONA ZONES BY LATE SATURDAY AND EXPAND TO
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY THANKS TO A
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH.  CONTINUE TO HAVE POPS LIMITED
TO MOHAVE COUNTY SATURDAY THEN EXPANDING WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR
NOW I MAINTAINED POPS GREATER THAN 15 PRESENT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN
REGIONS. A GRADUAL DRYING MAY TAKE PLACE TUESDAY ONWARD AS THE HIGH
TAKES ON A LESS FAVORABLE ORIENTATION CENTERED OVER ARIZONA,
BLOCKING THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM REACHING THE MOJAVE
DESERT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE AT
ODDS WITH THE MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS AND BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE,
INSISTING ON TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 110 IN LAS VEGAS SATURDAY ONWARD
(DESPITE A MARKED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE). I
DISCOUNTED THE ECMWF GUIDANCE IN FAVOR OF THE COOLER AND BETTER
PERFORMING MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY HOT FOR LATE JULY IN THIS PART OF
THE WORLD.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...AN EASTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER 21Z. SPEEDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL RANGE BETWEEN 6-11 KTS. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER THROUGH
TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AFFECTING TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY AND
CONTINUE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST INTO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE PLATEAUS OF NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GENERALLY LOOKING AT SOUTH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS IN THE OWENS VALLEY AND IN
ESMERALDA/CENTRAL NYE/LINCOLN COUNTIES INTO THIS EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MORGAN
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 231536
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
836 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL LEAD
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA. IT WILL
BE DRY ELSEWHERE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD NORTHWEST INTO THE
MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND FOR AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.UPDATE...QUIET WEATHER THIS MORNING. NO UPDATE PLANNED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
240 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING WILL DEVELOP
STARTING TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BIT OF A MOISTURE INCREASE INTO
THE AREA WITH MOISTURE CREEPING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS
TIME WE ARE KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LIMITED TO MOHAVE COUNTY
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOMETHING SNEAKING INTO NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA DUE TO OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND UNFORESEEN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BECOME BETTER POSITIONED TO
ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN MONSOON MOISTURE DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING ONE INCH BEGIN TO CREEP
INTO OUR NORTHWEST ARIZONA ZONES BY LATE SATURDAY AND EXPAND TO
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY THANKS TO A
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH.  CONTINUE TO HAVE POPS LIMITED
TO MOHAVE COUNTY SATURDAY THEN EXPANDING WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR
NOW I MAINTAINED POPS GREATER THAN 15 PRESENT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN
REGIONS. A GRADUAL DRYING MAY TAKE PLACE TUESDAY ONWARD AS THE HIGH
TAKES ON A LESS FAVORABLE ORIENTATION CENTERED OVER ARIZONA,
BLOCKING THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM REACHING THE MOJAVE
DESERT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE AT
ODDS WITH THE MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS AND BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE,
INSISTING ON TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 110 IN LAS VEGAS SATURDAY ONWARD
(DESPITE A MARKED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE). I
DISCOUNTED THE ECMWF GUIDANCE IN FAVOR OF THE COOLER AND BETTER
PERFORMING MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY HOT FOR LATE JULY IN THIS PART OF
THE WORLD.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...AN EASTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER 21Z. SPEEDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL RANGE BETWEEN 6-11 KTS. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER THROUGH
TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AFFECTING TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY AND
CONTINUE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST INTO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE PLATEAUS OF NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GENERALLY LOOKING AT SOUTH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS IN THE OWENS VALLEY AND IN
ESMERALDA/CENTRAL NYE/LINCOLN COUNTIES INTO THIS EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MORGAN
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KVEF 230940
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
240 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL LEAD
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA. IT WILL
BE DRY ELSEWHERE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD NORTHWEST INTO THE
MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND FOR AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING WILL DEVELOP
STARTING TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BIT OF A MOISTURE INCREASE INTO
THE AREA WITH MOISTURE CREEPING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS
TIME WE ARE KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LIMITED TO MOHAVE COUNTY
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOMETHING SNEAKING INTO NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA DUE TO OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND UNFORESEEN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BECOME BETTER POSITIONED TO
ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN MONSOON MOISTURE DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING ONE INCH BEGIN TO CREEP
INTO OUR NORTHWEST ARIZONA ZONES BY LATE SATURDAY AND EXPAND TO
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY THANKS TO A
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH.  CONTINUE TO HAVE POPS LIMITED
TO MOHAVE COUNTY SATURDAY THEN EXPANDING WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR
NOW I MAINTAINED POPS GREATER THAN 15 PRESENT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN
REGIONS. A GRADUAL DRYING MAY TAKE PLACE TUESDAY ONWARD AS THE HIGH
TAKES ON A LESS FAVORABLE ORIENTATION CENTERED OVER ARIZONA,
BLOCKING THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM REACHING THE MOJAVE
DESERT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE AT
ODDS WITH THE MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS AND BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE,
INSISTING ON TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 110 IN LAS VEGAS SATURDAY ONWARD
(DESPITE A MARKED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE). I
DISCOUNTED THE ECMWF GUIDANCE IN FAVOR OF THE COOLER AND BETTER
PERFORMING MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY HOT FOR LATE JULY IN THIS PART OF
THE WORLD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...AN EASTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER 21Z. SPEEDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL RANGE BETWEEN 6-11 KTS. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER THROUGH
TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AFFECTING TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY AND
CONTINUE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST INTO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE PLATEAUS OF NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GENERALLY LOOKING AT SOUTH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS IN THE OWENS VALLEY AND IN
ESMERALDA/CENTRAL NYE/LINCOLN COUNTIES INTO THIS EVENING.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KVEF 230940
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
240 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL LEAD
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA. IT WILL
BE DRY ELSEWHERE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD NORTHWEST INTO THE
MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND FOR AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING WILL DEVELOP
STARTING TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BIT OF A MOISTURE INCREASE INTO
THE AREA WITH MOISTURE CREEPING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS
TIME WE ARE KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LIMITED TO MOHAVE COUNTY
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOMETHING SNEAKING INTO NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA DUE TO OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND UNFORESEEN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BECOME BETTER POSITIONED TO
ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN MONSOON MOISTURE DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING ONE INCH BEGIN TO CREEP
INTO OUR NORTHWEST ARIZONA ZONES BY LATE SATURDAY AND EXPAND TO
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY THANKS TO A
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH.  CONTINUE TO HAVE POPS LIMITED
TO MOHAVE COUNTY SATURDAY THEN EXPANDING WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR
NOW I MAINTAINED POPS GREATER THAN 15 PRESENT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN
REGIONS. A GRADUAL DRYING MAY TAKE PLACE TUESDAY ONWARD AS THE HIGH
TAKES ON A LESS FAVORABLE ORIENTATION CENTERED OVER ARIZONA,
BLOCKING THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM REACHING THE MOJAVE
DESERT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE AT
ODDS WITH THE MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS AND BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE,
INSISTING ON TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 110 IN LAS VEGAS SATURDAY ONWARD
(DESPITE A MARKED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE). I
DISCOUNTED THE ECMWF GUIDANCE IN FAVOR OF THE COOLER AND BETTER
PERFORMING MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY HOT FOR LATE JULY IN THIS PART OF
THE WORLD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...AN EASTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER 21Z. SPEEDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL RANGE BETWEEN 6-11 KTS. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER THROUGH
TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AFFECTING TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY AND
CONTINUE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST INTO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE PLATEAUS OF NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GENERALLY LOOKING AT SOUTH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS IN THE OWENS VALLEY AND IN
ESMERALDA/CENTRAL NYE/LINCOLN COUNTIES INTO THIS EVENING.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KVEF 230340
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
840 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL LEAD
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA. IT WILL
BE DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ELSEWHERE. MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD WEST INTO THE MOJAVE
DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND FOR AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST AREA WAS CLEAR EXCEPT FOR MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
BRUSH FAR NORTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY. SATELLITE LOOPS AND THE 00Z
NAM/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THIS MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
WESTWARD. THE FORECAST TRENDS DETAILED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND NO IMMEDIATE CHANGES
ARE NEEDED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
230 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
SATELLITE SHOWS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STEADILY MARCH WESTWARD ACROSS
ARIZONA WITH LEADING EDGE AT THE EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY LINE. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE PLENTIFUL.
MODELS SPREAD THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD AS FAR AS THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS MUCH DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER EAST
CENTRAL ARIZONA IS DELAYED BY A DAY IN NOT REACHING MOHAVE COUNTY
UNTIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CAPE/LIFTED INDEX PARAMETERS VERY
MARGINAL FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
MOHAVE COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PARAMETERS LOOK BETTER TO SUPPORT DEEPER
CONVECTION. FROM THE COLORADO RIVER WEST INTO EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
AND CLARK COUNTY WE LIKELY WILL JUST SEE MORE CUMULUS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

AS FOR THE HOTTER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BEST
PREFORMING GUIDANCE SUPPORTS GOING TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 110
DEGREES FOR THE VEGAS VALLEY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SINCE
FORECAST HIGHS CONTINUE TO FALL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW OUR EXCESSIVE
HEAT CRITERIA NO HEADLINE WILL BE ISSUED. FOLKS JUST NEED TO
REMEMBER THOSE HEAT SAFETY TIPS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
CONUS...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND TROUGHING
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE
PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY. TROUGHING AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE RIDGING AND
WARMER CONDITIONS WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY BEFORE SLIDING A LITTLE MORE WEST AROUND TUESDAY. THERE
ARE A COUPLE PV ANOMALIES /SHORTWAVES/ THAT WILL ROUND THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND SUPPLY US WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE. THE MODELS
DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH...BUT THIS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS FAR OUT.

WE SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WAVE. THE WAVE WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY AND INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR NOW. THIS COULD BE A CASE WHERE WE SEE GOOD
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE CONTINUES MONDAY AS THE WAVE
IS STILL AROUND THE REGION. COULD SEE A DRYING TREND THROUGH THE DAY
AND NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THOUGH...AS THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
SOUTHWEST AND SUBSIDENT FLOW MAY WORK IN FROM THE SOUTH. SOME
GUIDANCE LINGERS THE MOISTURE HOWEVER...SO WILL CONTINUE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE ALL DAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD TREND DOWN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER SUNDAY I MAY BE TOO WARM ON TEMPS...BUT DID NUDGE DOWN
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR MONDAY. IF THE MOISTURE
AND CLOUDS LINGER...FORECAST TEMPS COULD BE TOO WARM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 8-10 KTS
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. AN EASTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER 21Z WEDNESDAY.
SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RANGE BETWEEN 6-11 KTS. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AFFECTING TERMINALS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER OVER ARIZONA WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST
ARIZONA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST INTO THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE PLATEAUS OF NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. GUSTY SOUTH SURFACE
WINDS UP TO 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE UP THE OWENS VALLEY AND IN
ESMERALDA/CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES INTO THIS EVENING. SIMILAR SOUTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAIR
PREV DISCUSSION...PIERCE/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER










000
FXUS65 KVEF 230340
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
840 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL LEAD
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA. IT WILL
BE DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ELSEWHERE. MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD WEST INTO THE MOJAVE
DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND FOR AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST AREA WAS CLEAR EXCEPT FOR MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
BRUSH FAR NORTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY. SATELLITE LOOPS AND THE 00Z
NAM/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THIS MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
WESTWARD. THE FORECAST TRENDS DETAILED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND NO IMMEDIATE CHANGES
ARE NEEDED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
230 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
SATELLITE SHOWS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STEADILY MARCH WESTWARD ACROSS
ARIZONA WITH LEADING EDGE AT THE EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY LINE. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE PLENTIFUL.
MODELS SPREAD THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD AS FAR AS THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS MUCH DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER EAST
CENTRAL ARIZONA IS DELAYED BY A DAY IN NOT REACHING MOHAVE COUNTY
UNTIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CAPE/LIFTED INDEX PARAMETERS VERY
MARGINAL FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
MOHAVE COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PARAMETERS LOOK BETTER TO SUPPORT DEEPER
CONVECTION. FROM THE COLORADO RIVER WEST INTO EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
AND CLARK COUNTY WE LIKELY WILL JUST SEE MORE CUMULUS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

AS FOR THE HOTTER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BEST
PREFORMING GUIDANCE SUPPORTS GOING TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 110
DEGREES FOR THE VEGAS VALLEY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SINCE
FORECAST HIGHS CONTINUE TO FALL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW OUR EXCESSIVE
HEAT CRITERIA NO HEADLINE WILL BE ISSUED. FOLKS JUST NEED TO
REMEMBER THOSE HEAT SAFETY TIPS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
CONUS...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND TROUGHING
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE
PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY. TROUGHING AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE RIDGING AND
WARMER CONDITIONS WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY BEFORE SLIDING A LITTLE MORE WEST AROUND TUESDAY. THERE
ARE A COUPLE PV ANOMALIES /SHORTWAVES/ THAT WILL ROUND THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND SUPPLY US WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE. THE MODELS
DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH...BUT THIS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS FAR OUT.

WE SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WAVE. THE WAVE WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY AND INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR NOW. THIS COULD BE A CASE WHERE WE SEE GOOD
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE CONTINUES MONDAY AS THE WAVE
IS STILL AROUND THE REGION. COULD SEE A DRYING TREND THROUGH THE DAY
AND NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THOUGH...AS THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
SOUTHWEST AND SUBSIDENT FLOW MAY WORK IN FROM THE SOUTH. SOME
GUIDANCE LINGERS THE MOISTURE HOWEVER...SO WILL CONTINUE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE ALL DAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD TREND DOWN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER SUNDAY I MAY BE TOO WARM ON TEMPS...BUT DID NUDGE DOWN
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR MONDAY. IF THE MOISTURE
AND CLOUDS LINGER...FORECAST TEMPS COULD BE TOO WARM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 8-10 KTS
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. AN EASTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER 21Z WEDNESDAY.
SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RANGE BETWEEN 6-11 KTS. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AFFECTING TERMINALS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER OVER ARIZONA WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST
ARIZONA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST INTO THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE PLATEAUS OF NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. GUSTY SOUTH SURFACE
WINDS UP TO 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE UP THE OWENS VALLEY AND IN
ESMERALDA/CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES INTO THIS EVENING. SIMILAR SOUTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAIR
PREV DISCUSSION...PIERCE/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









000
FXUS65 KVEF 230340
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
840 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL LEAD
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA. IT WILL
BE DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ELSEWHERE. MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD WEST INTO THE MOJAVE
DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND FOR AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST AREA WAS CLEAR EXCEPT FOR MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
BRUSH FAR NORTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY. SATELLITE LOOPS AND THE 00Z
NAM/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THIS MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
WESTWARD. THE FORECAST TRENDS DETAILED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND NO IMMEDIATE CHANGES
ARE NEEDED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
230 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
SATELLITE SHOWS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STEADILY MARCH WESTWARD ACROSS
ARIZONA WITH LEADING EDGE AT THE EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY LINE. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE PLENTIFUL.
MODELS SPREAD THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD AS FAR AS THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS MUCH DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER EAST
CENTRAL ARIZONA IS DELAYED BY A DAY IN NOT REACHING MOHAVE COUNTY
UNTIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CAPE/LIFTED INDEX PARAMETERS VERY
MARGINAL FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
MOHAVE COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PARAMETERS LOOK BETTER TO SUPPORT DEEPER
CONVECTION. FROM THE COLORADO RIVER WEST INTO EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
AND CLARK COUNTY WE LIKELY WILL JUST SEE MORE CUMULUS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

AS FOR THE HOTTER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BEST
PREFORMING GUIDANCE SUPPORTS GOING TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 110
DEGREES FOR THE VEGAS VALLEY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SINCE
FORECAST HIGHS CONTINUE TO FALL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW OUR EXCESSIVE
HEAT CRITERIA NO HEADLINE WILL BE ISSUED. FOLKS JUST NEED TO
REMEMBER THOSE HEAT SAFETY TIPS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
CONUS...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND TROUGHING
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE
PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY. TROUGHING AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE RIDGING AND
WARMER CONDITIONS WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY BEFORE SLIDING A LITTLE MORE WEST AROUND TUESDAY. THERE
ARE A COUPLE PV ANOMALIES /SHORTWAVES/ THAT WILL ROUND THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND SUPPLY US WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE. THE MODELS
DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH...BUT THIS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS FAR OUT.

WE SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WAVE. THE WAVE WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY AND INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR NOW. THIS COULD BE A CASE WHERE WE SEE GOOD
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE CONTINUES MONDAY AS THE WAVE
IS STILL AROUND THE REGION. COULD SEE A DRYING TREND THROUGH THE DAY
AND NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THOUGH...AS THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
SOUTHWEST AND SUBSIDENT FLOW MAY WORK IN FROM THE SOUTH. SOME
GUIDANCE LINGERS THE MOISTURE HOWEVER...SO WILL CONTINUE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE ALL DAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD TREND DOWN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER SUNDAY I MAY BE TOO WARM ON TEMPS...BUT DID NUDGE DOWN
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR MONDAY. IF THE MOISTURE
AND CLOUDS LINGER...FORECAST TEMPS COULD BE TOO WARM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 8-10 KTS
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. AN EASTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER 21Z WEDNESDAY.
SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RANGE BETWEEN 6-11 KTS. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AFFECTING TERMINALS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER OVER ARIZONA WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST
ARIZONA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST INTO THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE PLATEAUS OF NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. GUSTY SOUTH SURFACE
WINDS UP TO 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE UP THE OWENS VALLEY AND IN
ESMERALDA/CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES INTO THIS EVENING. SIMILAR SOUTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAIR
PREV DISCUSSION...PIERCE/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER










000
FXUS65 KVEF 222130
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
230 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL LEAD
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA. IT WILL
BE DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ELSEWHERE. MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD WEST INTO THE MOJAVE
DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND FOR AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
SATELLITE SHOWS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STEADILY MARCH WESTWARD ACROSS
ARIZONA WITH LEADING EDGE AT THE EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY LINE. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE PLENTIFUL.
MODELS SPREAD THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD AS FAR AS THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS MUCH DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER EAST
CENTRAL ARIZONA IS DELAYED BY A DAY IN NOT REACHING MOHAVE COUNTY
UNTIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CAPE/LIFTED INDEX PARAMETERS VERY
MARGINAL FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
MOHAVE COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PARAMETERS LOOK BETTER TO SUPPORT DEEPER
CONVECTION. FROM THE COLORADO RIVER WEST INTO EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
AND CLARK COUNTY WE LIKELY WILL JUST SEE MORE CUMULUS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

AS FOR THE HOTTER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BEST
PREFORMING GUIDANCE SUPPORTS GOING TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 110 DEGREES
FOR THE VEGAS VALLEY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SINCE FORECAST HIGHS
CONTINUE TO FALL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW OUR EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA
NO HEADLINE WILL BE ISSUED. FOLKS JUST NEED TO REMEMBER THOSE HEAT
SAFETY TIPS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
CONUS...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND TROUGHING
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE
PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY. TROUGHING AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE RIDGING AND
WARMER CONDITIONS WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY BEFORE SLIDING A LITTLE MORE WEST AROUND TUESDAY. THERE
ARE A COUPLE PV ANOMALIES /SHORTWAVES/ THAT WILL ROUND THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND SUPPLY US WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE. THE MODELS
DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH...BUT THIS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS FAR OUT.

WE SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WAVE. THE WAVE WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY AND INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR NOW. THIS COULD BE A CASE WHERE WE SEE GOOD
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE CONTINUES MONDAY AS THE WAVE
IS STILL AROUND THE REGION. COULD SEE A DRYING TREND THROUGH THE DAY
AND NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THOUGH...AS THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
SOUTHWEST AND SUBSIDENT FLOW MAY WORK IN FROM THE SOUTH. SOME
GUIDANCE LINGERS THE MOISTURE HOWEVER...SO WILL CONTINUE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE ALL DAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD TREND DOWN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER SUNDAY I MAY BE TOO WARM ON TEMPS...BUT DID NUDGE DOWN
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR MONDAY. IF THE MOISTURE
AND CLOUDS LINGER...FORECAST TEMPS COULD BE TOO WARM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...THE WIND SHOULD TRANSITION TO A MORE
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE GOING
MORE SOUTHERLY AFTER 02Z. AN EASTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER 21Z WEDNESDAY.
SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RANGE BETWEEN 6-11 KTS. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AFFECTING TERMINALS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER OVER ARIZONA WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST
ARIZONA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST INTO THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE PLATEAUS OF NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. GUSTY SOUTH SURFACE
WINDS UP TO 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE UP THE OWENS VALLEY AND IN
ESMERALDA/CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES INTO THIS EVENING. SIMILAR SOUTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

PIERCE/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 222130
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
230 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL LEAD
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA. IT WILL
BE DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ELSEWHERE. MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD WEST INTO THE MOJAVE
DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND FOR AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
SATELLITE SHOWS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STEADILY MARCH WESTWARD ACROSS
ARIZONA WITH LEADING EDGE AT THE EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY LINE. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE PLENTIFUL.
MODELS SPREAD THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD AS FAR AS THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS MUCH DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER EAST
CENTRAL ARIZONA IS DELAYED BY A DAY IN NOT REACHING MOHAVE COUNTY
UNTIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CAPE/LIFTED INDEX PARAMETERS VERY
MARGINAL FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
MOHAVE COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PARAMETERS LOOK BETTER TO SUPPORT DEEPER
CONVECTION. FROM THE COLORADO RIVER WEST INTO EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
AND CLARK COUNTY WE LIKELY WILL JUST SEE MORE CUMULUS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

AS FOR THE HOTTER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BEST
PREFORMING GUIDANCE SUPPORTS GOING TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 110 DEGREES
FOR THE VEGAS VALLEY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SINCE FORECAST HIGHS
CONTINUE TO FALL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW OUR EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA
NO HEADLINE WILL BE ISSUED. FOLKS JUST NEED TO REMEMBER THOSE HEAT
SAFETY TIPS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
CONUS...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND TROUGHING
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE
PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY. TROUGHING AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE RIDGING AND
WARMER CONDITIONS WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY BEFORE SLIDING A LITTLE MORE WEST AROUND TUESDAY. THERE
ARE A COUPLE PV ANOMALIES /SHORTWAVES/ THAT WILL ROUND THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND SUPPLY US WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE. THE MODELS
DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH...BUT THIS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS FAR OUT.

WE SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WAVE. THE WAVE WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY AND INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR NOW. THIS COULD BE A CASE WHERE WE SEE GOOD
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE CONTINUES MONDAY AS THE WAVE
IS STILL AROUND THE REGION. COULD SEE A DRYING TREND THROUGH THE DAY
AND NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THOUGH...AS THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
SOUTHWEST AND SUBSIDENT FLOW MAY WORK IN FROM THE SOUTH. SOME
GUIDANCE LINGERS THE MOISTURE HOWEVER...SO WILL CONTINUE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE ALL DAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD TREND DOWN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER SUNDAY I MAY BE TOO WARM ON TEMPS...BUT DID NUDGE DOWN
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR MONDAY. IF THE MOISTURE
AND CLOUDS LINGER...FORECAST TEMPS COULD BE TOO WARM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...THE WIND SHOULD TRANSITION TO A MORE
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE GOING
MORE SOUTHERLY AFTER 02Z. AN EASTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER 21Z WEDNESDAY.
SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RANGE BETWEEN 6-11 KTS. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AFFECTING TERMINALS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER OVER ARIZONA WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST
ARIZONA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST INTO THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE PLATEAUS OF NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. GUSTY SOUTH SURFACE
WINDS UP TO 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE UP THE OWENS VALLEY AND IN
ESMERALDA/CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES INTO THIS EVENING. SIMILAR SOUTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

PIERCE/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






000
FXUS65 KVEF 221543 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
843 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THERE. HOT
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.
&&

.UPDATE...HIGH CENTER NEAR EL PASO THIS MORNING WITH MORNING
ANALYSIS SHOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH BETWEEN EL PASO AND TUCSON
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO. EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA HAS BROUGHT PRECIP. WATER VALUES BACK ABOVE 1 INCH AT
PHOENIX AND TUCSON. MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME OF THIS MOISTURE
SPREADING WESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST
AS EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND CLARK COUNTIES BEFORE
ENCOUNTERING A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. NO UPDATED NEEDED THIS
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK AT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR NORTHWEST ARIZONA IN THE COMING DAYS AS
WELL AS HIGH TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPANDING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED WARMING
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO
EACH DAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY
ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN PRETTY STABLE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BEGINNING
TO CREEP UP OVER SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY LATE IN THE DAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH INTO WESTERN ARIZONA TONIGHT
WHICH WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE INTO MOHAVE
COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF MOHAVE COUNTY AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. I
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NAM12
KEEPS SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ALL THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT OUTSIDE OF EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY...THE CWA WILL
REMAIN DRY AND STABLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TWO PRIMARY ITEMS OF INTEREST
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ARE THE HEAT AND THE RETURN OF SOME MONSOON
MOISTURE. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRETCH
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ALL THE WAY EAST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL KEEP THE
HEAT FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD TEMPS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHTS RUN WHILE GFS MAINTAINS WARM
(BUT COOLER THAN THE ECMWF) TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE I KEPT FRIDAY AS
THE HOTTEST DAY AND COOLED TEMPERATURES DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY ON
SATURDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDED HIGH CLOUD COVER
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE HIGH.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS APPEAR TO BE KEYING IN ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH WORKING AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH AND PUSHING WEST
TOWARDS THE MOJAVE DESERT ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MARKED
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST AND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THUNDER CHANCES EXPANDING WESTWARD. TRENDED TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY FROM SUNDAY ONWARD WITH POPS STILL PRIMARILY LIMITED TO
MOUNTAIN ZONES.  HOWEVER, IF MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE
WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL GO EASTERLY BY LATE THIS
MORNING WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-9 KTS. THE WIND SHOULD SHIFT MORE
SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AFFECTING TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL OCCUR IN THE OWENS
VALLEY WHERE SOUTH WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
















000
FXUS65 KVEF 221543 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
843 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THERE. HOT
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.
&&

.UPDATE...HIGH CENTER NEAR EL PASO THIS MORNING WITH MORNING
ANALYSIS SHOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH BETWEEN EL PASO AND TUCSON
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO. EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA HAS BROUGHT PRECIP. WATER VALUES BACK ABOVE 1 INCH AT
PHOENIX AND TUCSON. MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME OF THIS MOISTURE
SPREADING WESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST
AS EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND CLARK COUNTIES BEFORE
ENCOUNTERING A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. NO UPDATED NEEDED THIS
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK AT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR NORTHWEST ARIZONA IN THE COMING DAYS AS
WELL AS HIGH TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPANDING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED WARMING
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO
EACH DAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY
ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN PRETTY STABLE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BEGINNING
TO CREEP UP OVER SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY LATE IN THE DAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH INTO WESTERN ARIZONA TONIGHT
WHICH WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE INTO MOHAVE
COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF MOHAVE COUNTY AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. I
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NAM12
KEEPS SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ALL THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT OUTSIDE OF EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY...THE CWA WILL
REMAIN DRY AND STABLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TWO PRIMARY ITEMS OF INTEREST
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ARE THE HEAT AND THE RETURN OF SOME MONSOON
MOISTURE. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRETCH
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ALL THE WAY EAST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL KEEP THE
HEAT FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD TEMPS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHTS RUN WHILE GFS MAINTAINS WARM
(BUT COOLER THAN THE ECMWF) TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE I KEPT FRIDAY AS
THE HOTTEST DAY AND COOLED TEMPERATURES DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY ON
SATURDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDED HIGH CLOUD COVER
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE HIGH.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS APPEAR TO BE KEYING IN ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH WORKING AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH AND PUSHING WEST
TOWARDS THE MOJAVE DESERT ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MARKED
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST AND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THUNDER CHANCES EXPANDING WESTWARD. TRENDED TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY FROM SUNDAY ONWARD WITH POPS STILL PRIMARILY LIMITED TO
MOUNTAIN ZONES.  HOWEVER, IF MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE
WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL GO EASTERLY BY LATE THIS
MORNING WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-9 KTS. THE WIND SHOULD SHIFT MORE
SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AFFECTING TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL OCCUR IN THE OWENS
VALLEY WHERE SOUTH WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER















000
FXUS65 KVEF 220922
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
220 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THERE. HOT
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPANDING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED WARMING
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO
EACH DAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY
ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN PRETTY STABLE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BEGINNING
TO CREEP UP OVER SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY LATE IN THE DAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH INTO WESTERN ARIZONA TONIGHT
WHICH WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE INTO MOHAVE
COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF MOHAVE COUNTY AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. I
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NAM12
KEEPS SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ALL THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT OUTSIDE OF EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY...THE CWA WILL
REMAIN DRY AND STABLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TWO PRIMARY ITEMS OF INTEREST
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ARE THE HEAT AND THE RETURN OF SOME MONSOON
MOISTURE. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRETCH
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ALL THE WAY EAST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL KEEP THE
HEAT FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD TEMPS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHTS RUN WHILE GFS MAINTAINS WARM
(BUT COOLER THAN THE ECMWF) TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE I KEPT FRIDAY AS
THE HOTTEST DAY AND COOLED TEMPERATURES DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY ON
SATURDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDED HIGH CLOUD COVER
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE HIGH.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS APPEAR TO BE KEYING IN ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH WORKING AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH AND PUSHING WEST
TOWARDS THE MOJAVE DESERT ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MARKED
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST AND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THUNDER CHANCES EXPANDING WESTWARD. TRENDED TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY FROM SUNDAY ONWARD WITH POPS STILL PRIMARILY LIMITED TO
MOUNTAIN ZONES.  HOWEVER, IF MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE
WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL GO EASTERLY BY LATE THIS
MORNING WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-9 KTS. THE WIND SHOULD SHIFT MORE
SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AFFECTING TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL OCCUR IN THE OWENS
VALLEY WHERE SOUTH WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER













000
FXUS65 KVEF 220922
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
220 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THERE. HOT
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPANDING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED WARMING
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO
EACH DAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY
ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN PRETTY STABLE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BEGINNING
TO CREEP UP OVER SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY LATE IN THE DAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH INTO WESTERN ARIZONA TONIGHT
WHICH WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE INTO MOHAVE
COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF MOHAVE COUNTY AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. I
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NAM12
KEEPS SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ALL THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT OUTSIDE OF EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY...THE CWA WILL
REMAIN DRY AND STABLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TWO PRIMARY ITEMS OF INTEREST
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ARE THE HEAT AND THE RETURN OF SOME MONSOON
MOISTURE. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRETCH
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ALL THE WAY EAST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL KEEP THE
HEAT FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD TEMPS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHTS RUN WHILE GFS MAINTAINS WARM
(BUT COOLER THAN THE ECMWF) TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE I KEPT FRIDAY AS
THE HOTTEST DAY AND COOLED TEMPERATURES DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY ON
SATURDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDED HIGH CLOUD COVER
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE HIGH.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS APPEAR TO BE KEYING IN ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH WORKING AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH AND PUSHING WEST
TOWARDS THE MOJAVE DESERT ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MARKED
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST AND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THUNDER CHANCES EXPANDING WESTWARD. TRENDED TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY FROM SUNDAY ONWARD WITH POPS STILL PRIMARILY LIMITED TO
MOUNTAIN ZONES.  HOWEVER, IF MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE
WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL GO EASTERLY BY LATE THIS
MORNING WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-9 KTS. THE WIND SHOULD SHIFT MORE
SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AFFECTING TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL OCCUR IN THE OWENS
VALLEY WHERE SOUTH WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 220401
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
900 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED TUESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...WHAT FEW CLOUDS THREE WERE HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MAINLY BRUSH THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
OVERNIGHT LEAVING THE REST OF THE AREA CLEAR. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO SKY COVER GRIDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST TRENDS DETAILED IN
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ARE ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
234 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS PROGGED TO EXPAND
WESTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE IS AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING A SMALLER IMPULSE BREAKING
AWAY AND SHIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT SHOWING AN INCREASE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AS FAR WEST AS
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN CLARK COUNTY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE LAGGING
BEHIND FORECAST INSTABILITY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER FAR EASTERN
MOHAVE COUNTY IN MINIMAL. CAN NOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
HI-BASED STORMS OVER THE TERRAIN SO DID INCREASE POPS. ELSEWHERE,
REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO THE
OVERALL FORECAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE WARMEST GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN THE ECMWF
SHOWING TEMPS OF 112/114 FOR LAS VEGAS ON FRIDAY AND HAS COME DOWN
TO 110/112. THE GFS REMAINS THE COOLER OF THE TWO MODELS WITH TEMPS
107/109. HOWEVER...USING THE MEAN 850 MB TEMPERATURE THURSDAY TO
SATURDAY AND LOCAL GUIDANCE ON THE EQUIVALENT SURFACE TEMP FOR A
GIVEN 850 MB TEMP THE MAX TEMPERATURES ARE PEAKING OUT AT 111
DEGREES. DECIDED TO LEAVE THE 110 FOR THURSDAY AND 111 IN FOR FRIDAY
FOR LAS VEGAS. THE LINGERING CONSISTENCY ISSUES BETWEEN THE MODELS
AND THE WARMEST GUIDANCE NOW LOWER THAN EARLIER DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING ANY HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS AS CURRENT NUMBERS ARE JUST
BELOW CRITERIA AND WILL WAIT UNTIL THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE HIGH WILL START TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE CWA. INCREASED POPS FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY AND SOUTHEASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY ON SATURDAY. SPREAD POPS NORTH AND WEST ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES LOWER A DEGREE OR
TWO SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES BOTH
DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GO EASTERLY BY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-9 KTS. THE WIND SHOULD SHIFT MORE
SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AFFECTING TERMINALS TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE OWENS
VALLEY WHERE SOUTH WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAIR
PREV DISCUSSION...PIERCE/STUMPF

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

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