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000
FXUS65 KVEF 171625 AAB
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
925 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BREEZY
CONDITIONS...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...UPPER LOW APPROXIMATELY 500 MILES WSW OF SAN DIEGO THIS
MORNING. LEADING EDGE OF HIGH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES RUNNING UP TO 4 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS PARTS OF LAS
VEGAS SO LOW 90S WELL WITHIN REACH ESPECIALLY ONCE SOUTHERLY WINDS
MIX OUT. FORECAST IS FINE.

.PREV UPDATE...
551 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO THE MORNING GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION...
325 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MORNING SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
CLOUDS APPROACHING THE COAST JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
IMPACT THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS CLEARLY SPLIT WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH MOVING INTO THE WA/OR REGION AND THE SOUTHERN BRANCH MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TODAY WITH MOST AREAS SEEING BREEZY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH BETTER MIXING EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO JUMP A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
THAN WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD PUT THEM SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE.
EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW AND THEN MOVE DIRECTLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT
A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM INYO COUNTY THROUGH ESMERALDA
INTO LINCOLN COUNTIES. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
HIGH BASED AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS COULD BE AN ISSUE NEAR STORMS AND
ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL AGAIN
OCCUR OVER MUCH OF REGION ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING AROUND 5-8
DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING WITH READINGS CLOSE
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THIS LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH RIDGING BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...QUIET, PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR EASTER SUNDAY
AS THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY SYSTEM BECOMES A MEMORY AND IS REPLACED BY
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN WARMER ON
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH WITH MODELS GENERALLY FORECASTING WIND
SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH BECOMING PRETTY COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED TREMENDOUSLY FROM A MERE 24 HOURS AGO
REGARDING AN INCOMING PACIFIC SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS NOW BACKED OFF ON
DEVELOPING A STRONG COLD LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NOW
AGREES WITH THE ECMWF/GEM IN BRINGING A VIGOROUS LEADING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN MOVING IT ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT LEADS TO
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AREA WIDE
TUESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS GUSTS. WIND HAZARD
PRODUCTS MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THAT DAY ONCE WE
GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND PROVIDED MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. THIS SHORTWAVE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND IT. THIS COULD BRING MORE
STRONG WINDS TO THE MOJAVE DESERT WEDNESDAY. ALSO QUITE NOTABLE WILL
BE THE AMOUNT OF COOLING EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. A OVERALL DROP
IN TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 10-15 DEGREES SEEMS LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY
WHICH WOULD DROP US BACK BELOW NORMAL. REGARDING SHOWER ACTIVITY,
MODELS ALL FORECAST LIMITED MOISTURE REACHING THIS FAR SOUTH AND
ONLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY OVER AREAS NORTH OF
LAS VEGAS. THE MAIN BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS FORECAST OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND THE PROSPECT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS GREATER THERE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 8 KTS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING AFTER 22Z AND TURNING
SOUTH WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-20 KTS. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 03Z BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND
8-10 KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN TURNING
SOUTH AROUND 10-20 KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER MOST AREAS. THESE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND
10 KTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

GORELOW/SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER







000
FXUS65 KVEF 171251 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
551 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BREEZY
CONDITIONS...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO THE MORNING GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION...
325 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MORNING SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
CLOUDS APPROACHING THE COAST JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
IMPACT THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS CLEARLY SPLIT WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH MOVING INTO THE WA/OR REGION AND THE SOUTHERN BRANCH MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TODAY WITH MOST AREAS SEEING BREEZY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH BETTER MIXING EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO JUMP A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
THAN WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD PUT THEM SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE.
EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW AND THEN MOVE DIRECTLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT
A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM INYO COUNTY THROUGH ESMERALDA
INTO LINCOLN COUNTIES. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
HIGH BASED AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS COULD BE AN ISSUE NEAR STORMS AND
ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL AGAIN
OCCUR OVER MUCH OF REGION ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING AROUND 5-8
DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING WITH READINGS CLOSE
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THIS LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH RIDGING BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...QUIET, PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR EASTER SUNDAY
AS THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY SYSTEM BECOMES A MEMORY AND IS REPLACED BY
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN WARMER ON
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH WITH MODELS GENERALLY FORECASTING WIND
SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH BECOMING PRETTY COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED TREMENDOUSLY FROM A MERE 24 HOURS AGO
REGARDING AN INCOMING PACIFIC SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS NOW BACKED OFF ON
DEVELOPING A STRONG COLD LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NOW
AGREES WITH THE ECMWF/GEM IN BRINGING A VIGOROUS LEADING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN MOVING IT ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT LEADS TO
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AREA WIDE
TUESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS GUSTS. WIND HAZARD
PRODUCTS MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THAT DAY ONCE WE
GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND PROVIDED MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. THIS SHORTWAVE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND IT. THIS COULD BRING MORE
STRONG WINDS TO THE MOJAVE DESERT WEDNESDAY. ALSO QUITE NOTABLE WILL
BE THE AMOUNT OF COOLING EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. A OVERALL DROP
IN TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 10-15 DEGREES SEEMS LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY
WHICH WOULD DROP US BACK BELOW NORMAL. REGARDING SHOWER ACTIVITY,
MODELS ALL FORECAST LIMITED MOISTURE REACHING THIS FAR SOUTH AND
ONLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY OVER AREAS NORTH OF
LAS VEGAS. THE MAIN BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS FORECAST OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND THE PROSPECT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS GREATER THERE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 8 KTS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING AFTER 21Z  AND TURNING
SOUTH WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-20 KTS. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 03Z BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND
8-10 KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN TURNING
SOUTH AROUND 10-20 KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER MOST AREAS. THESE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND
10 KTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

GORELOW/SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER











000
FXUS65 KVEF 171026
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
325 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BREEZY
CONDITIONS...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MORNING SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
CLOUDS APPROACHING THE COAST JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
IMPACT THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS CLEARLY SPLIT WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH MOVING INTO THE WA/OR REGION AND THE SOUTHERN BRANCH MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TODAY WITH MOST AREAS SEEING BREEZY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH BETTER MIXING EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO JUMP A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
THAN WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD PUT THEM SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE.
EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW AND THEN MOVE DIRECTLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT
A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM INYO COUNTY THROUGH ESMERALDA
INTO LINCOLN COUNTIES. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
HIGH BASED AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS COULD BE AN ISSUE NEAR STORMS AND
ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL AGAIN
OCCUR OVER MUCH OF REGION ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING AROUND 5-8
DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING WITH READINGS CLOSE
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THIS LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH RIDGING BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...QUIET, PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR EASTER SUNDAY
AS THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY SYSTEM BECOMES A MEMORY AND IS REPLACED BY
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN WARMER ON
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH WITH MODELS GENERALLY FORECASTING WIND
SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH BECOMING PRETTY COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED TREMENDOUSLY FROM A MERE 24 HOURS AGO
REGARDING AN INCOMING PACIFIC SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS NOW BACKED OFF ON
DEVELOPING A STRONG COLD LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NOW
AGREES WITH THE ECMWF/GEM IN BRINGING A VIGOROUS LEADING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN MOVING IT ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT LEADS TO
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AREA WIDE
TUESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS GUSTS. WIND HAZARD
PRODUCTS MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THAT DAY ONCE WE
GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND PROVIDED MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. THIS SHORTWAVE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND IT. THIS COULD BRING MORE
STRONG WINDS TO THE MOJAVE DESERT WEDNESDAY. ALSO QUITE NOTABLE WILL
BE THE AMOUNT OF COOLING EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. A OVERALL DROP
IN TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 10-15 DEGREES SEEMS LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY
WHICH WOULD DROP US BACK BELOW NORMAL. REGARDING SHOWER ACTIVITY,
MODELS ALL FORECAST LIMITED MOISTURE REACHING THIS FAR SOUTH AND
ONLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY OVER AREAS NORTH OF
LAS VEGAS. THE MAIN BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS FORECAST OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND THE PROSPECT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS GREATER THERE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 8 KTS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING AFTER 21Z  AND TURNING
SOUTH WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-20 KTS. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 03Z BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND
8-10 KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN TURNING
SOUTH AROUND 10-20 KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER MOST AREAS. THESE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND
10 KTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

GORELOW/SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KVEF 170332
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
832 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY THEN A WARMING TREND BEGINS SATURDAY AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
TO ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE CIRRUS SPILLING DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
RIDGE. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
312 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...BRIEF RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN
15-25 MPH EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MIXING AND TEMPERATURES TO JUMP AROUND 3-5
DEGREES OVER TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING.

COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
LOWERING TO SEASONAL NORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AS DYNAMICS ARE WEAK AND MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY BUT
SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA THAT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM A FEW DEGREES ON
SATURDAY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY
DRY WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE TROUGH.

NEXT WEEK IS BEGINNING TO LOOK INTERESTING...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES HAVE OCCURRED WITH THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE. GFS/GEM
VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN INDICATING A DEEP COLD TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
12Z ECMWF CAME IN NOT AS SHARP/DEEP WITH THE TROUGH TUESDAY AND IS
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE TAKING THE TROUGH AXIS EAST INTO THE ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE CAN SAY STRONG WINDS WILL
AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY. MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION DETAILS DUE TO
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. BOTTOM LINE...DID NOT MAKE MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE EXTENDED.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 KTS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY MORNING WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 8 KTS. AFTER 15Z WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH A DIRECTION INITIALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
EXPECTED WITH SPEEDS 8-12 KTS. THEN AROUND 22Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 10-15 KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THROUGH THIS EVENING AREAS NORTH OF LAS VEGAS WILL SEE
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KTS AND UNDER 10 KTS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. SPEEDS DECREASE AND REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY WILL TURN WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING THEN SCT-BKN AOA 15K FEET ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND AOA 20K FEET ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEVADA.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

MORGAN/STUMPF/PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KVEF 162212
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
312 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY THEN A WARMING TREND BEGINS SATURDAY AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...BRIEF RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN
15-25 MPH EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MIXING AND TEMPERATURES TO JUMP AROUND 3-5
DEGREES OVER TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING.

COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
LOWERING TO SEASONAL NORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AS DYNAMICS ARE WEAK AND MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY BUT
SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA THAT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM A FEW DEGREES ON
SATURDAY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY
DRY WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE TROUGH.

NEXT WEEK IS BEGINNING TO LOOK INTERESTING...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES HAVE OCCURRED WITH THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE. GFS/GEM
VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN INDICATING A DEEP COLD TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
12Z ECMWF CAME IN NOT AS SHARP/DEEP WITH THE TROUGH TUESDAY AND IS
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE TAKING THE TROUGH AXIS EAST INTO THE ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE CAN SAY STRONG WINDS WILL
AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY. MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION DETAILS DUE TO
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. BOTTOM LINE...DID NOT MAKE MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE EXTENDED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 KTS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY MORNING WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 8 KTS. AFTER 15Z WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH A DIRECTION INITIALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
EXPECTED WITH SPEEDS 8-12 KTS. THEN AROUND 22Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 10-15 KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THROUGH THIS EVENING AREAS NORTH OF LAS VEGAS WILL SEE
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KTS AND UNDER 10 KTS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. SPEEDS DECREASE AND REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY WILL TURN WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING THEN SCT-BKN AOA 15K FEET ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND AOA 20K FEET ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEVADA.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

STUMPF/PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

















000
FXUS65 KVEF 161550 CCA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
850 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING INTO NORTHERN UTAH TODAY
WILL KEEP CLOUDS STREAMING THROUGH NORTHERN LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES TODAY. OTHERWISE...VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWING
CLOUDS DISSIPATING QUICKLY AND SHOULD LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 4 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME AND AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. NO UPDATE IS NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
311 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE TO BRUSH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TODAY...BUT OUTSIDE OF A MINOR WIND SHIFT AND SOME INCREASING CLOUDS
LITTLE ELSE WILL BE NOTICED FROM THIS SYSTEM. WEAK RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING BREEZY CONDITIONS /15-25 MPH/. WITH THE INCREASE
IN SOUTHERLY WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES OVER
TODAYS HIGHS WHICH WILL PUT READINGS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SOME MOISTURE WILL START TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT SOME LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY REACH THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY. EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGHING APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK FOR
A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE DUE TO THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND
WEAK DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THE SYSTEM WEAKENS SATURDAY
BUT REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. SATURDAY TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE TROUGH.

NEXT WEEK IS BEGINNING TO LOOK INTERESTING. A PACIFIC TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BRING IMPACTS TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS MONDAY OR
TUESDAY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. THE GFS IS DEVELOPING A VERY STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY MORNING AND
MOVES IT ACROSS NEVADA LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOW IS COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 6000 FEET OR SO AND
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE GEM IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND WEAKER, BRINGING AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING IT EAST. THE GEM MOISTURE PROFILE IS EVEN LESS
GENEROUS FOR OUR AREA, KEEPING THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH.
THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO THE GEM BUT SLOWER WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE, THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE LOW/TROUGH AND THE COOLER AIRMASS.

MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
GRIDS FOR NEXT WEEK EVEN THOUGH WEDNESDAY IS "OFFICIALLY" BEYOND THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE CHANGES INCLUDE AN INCREASE IN POPS AND SKY
COVER AND A LOWERING OF FORECAST TEMPERATURES. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
HIGH IN A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LATE MONDAY TO LATE
TUESDAY TIME PERIOD BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM
WILL BE AND WHAT IMPACTS IT WILL BRING IS LOW.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 8 KTS
THROUGH TODAY...BUT MAY SWITCH TO A NORTHEAST DIRECTION BETWEEN
16Z-22Z THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 8-10KTS AFTER 02Z. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET EXPECTED
THROUGH TODAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AREAS NORTH OF LAS VEGAS WILL SEE NORTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KTS FOR MUCH OF TODAY WITH WINDS UNDER 10
KTS ACROSS THE SOUTH. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET THROUGH TODAY.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STUMPF
PREV DISCUSSION...GORELOW/SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER














000
FXUS65 KVEF 161012 CCA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
311 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION SECTIONS

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE TO BRUSH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TODAY...BUT OUTSIDE OF A MINOR WIND SHIFT AND SOME INCREASING CLOUDS
LITTLE ELSE WILL BE NOTICED FROM THIS SYSTEM. WEAK RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING BREEZY CONDITIONS /15-25 MPH/. WITH THE INCREASE
IN SOUTHERLY WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES OVER
TODAYS HIGHS WHICH WILL PUT READINGS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SOME MOISTURE WILL START TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT SOME LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY REACH THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY. EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGHING APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK FOR
A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE DUE TO THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND
WEAK DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THE SYSTEM WEAKENS SATURDAY
BUT REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. SATURDAY TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE TROUGH.

NEXT WEEK IS BEGINNING TO LOOK INTERESTING. A PACIFIC TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BRING IMPACTS TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS MONDAY OR
TUESDAY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. THE GFS IS DEVELOPING A VERY STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY MORNING AND
MOVES IT ACROSS NEVADA LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOW IS COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 6000 FEET OR SO AND
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE GEM IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND WEAKER, BRINGING AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING IT EAST. THE GEM MOISTURE PROFILE IS EVEN LESS
GENEROUS FOR OUR AREA, KEEPING THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH.
THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO THE GEM BUT SLOWER WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE, THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE LOW/TROUGH AND THE COOLER AIRMASS.

MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
GRIDS FOR NEXT WEEK EVEN THOUGH WEDNESDAY IS "OFFICIALLY" BEYOND THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE CHANGES INCLUDE AN INCREASE IN POPS AND SKY
COVER AND A LOWERING OF FORECAST TEMPERATURES. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
HIGH IN A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LATE MONDAY TO LATE
TUESDAY TIME PERIOD BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM
WILL BE AND WHAT IMPACTS IT WILL BRING IS LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 8 KTS
THROUGH TODAY...BUT MAY SWITCH TO A NORTHEAST DIRECTION BETWEEN
16Z-22Z THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 8-10KTS AFTER 02Z. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET EXPECTED
THROUGH TODAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AREAS NORTH OF LAS VEGAS WILL SEE NORTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KTS FOR MUCH OF TODAY WITH WINDS UNDER 10
KTS ACROSS THE SOUTH. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET THROUGH TODAY.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

GORELOW/SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER











000
FXUS65 KVEF 161004
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
304 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY WILL BRING ENHANCED WINDS AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE TO BRUSH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TODAY...BUT OUTSIDE OF A MINOR WIND SHIFT AND SOME INCREASING CLOUDS
LITTLE ELSE WILL BE NOTICED FROM THIS SYSTEM. WEAK RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING BREEZY CONDITIONS /15-25 MPH/. WITH THE INCREASE
IN SOUTHERLY WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES OVER
TODAYS HIGHS WHICH WILL PUT READINGS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SOME MOISTURE WILL START TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT SOME LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY REACH THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY. EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGHING APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK FOR
A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE DUE TO THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND
WEAK DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THE SYSTEM WEAKENS SATURDAY
BUT REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. SATURDAY TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE TROUGH.

NEXT WEEK IS BEGINNING TO LOOK INTERESTING. A PACIFIC TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BRING IMPACTS TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS MONDAY OR
TUESDAY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. THE GFS IS DEVELOPING A VERY STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY MORNING AND
MOVES IT ACROSS NEVADA LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOW IS COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 6000 FEET OR SO AND
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE GEM IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND WEAKER, BRINGING AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING IT EAST. THE GEM MOISTURE PROFILE IS EVEN LESS
GENEROUS FOR OUR AREA, KEEPING THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH.
THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO THE GEM BUT SLOWER WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE, THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE LOW/TROUGH AND THE COOLER AIRMASS.

MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
GRIDS FOR NEXT WEEK EVEN THOUGH WEDNESDAY IS "OFFICIALLY" BEYOND THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE CHANGES INCLUDE AN INCREASE IN POPS AND SKY
COVER AND A LOWERING OF FORECAST TEMPERATURES. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
HIGH IN A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LATE MONDAY TO LATE
TUESDAY TIME PERIOD BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM
WILL BE AND WHAT IMPACTS IT WILL BRING IS LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12 KTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND WILL FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION BUT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10KTS. FEW CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 8-18 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT GUSTING 25-30
KTS. WINDS DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL
TRENDS. ON WEDNESDAY AREAS NORTH OF LAS VEGAS WILL SEE NORTHWESTERLY
TO NORTHERLY WINDS AT 5-15KTS AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

GORELOW/SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KVEF 160244
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
744 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY WILL BRING ENHANCED WINDS AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD THIS EVENING. NO UPDATE PLANNED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
305 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUD DECK ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT BUT HIGH CLOUD DECK TIED TO
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CAN BE SEEN ENTERING CENTRAL NEVADA. LITTLE
IF ANY NOTICEABLE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE
EXCEPT FOR INCREASED CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF LINCOLN COUNTY
WEDNESDAY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE LATEST MODEL FORECASTS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY SHOWED 24
HRS AGO. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
COAST THURSDAY DRIFTS INLAND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY. RIDGING DEVELOPS
BEHIND THIS EXITING SYSTEM BUT IS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE COULD BE SOME INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL  INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE CLOUD
COVER AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
IN GENERAL WILL BE LIGHT AND IMPACTS WILL MINIMAL. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE SOUTH 10-20 MPH FRIDAY BUT SHOULD THEN BECOME LIGHT ON
SATURDAY. LOWER HEIGHTS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SUNDAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE YEAR IN LAS VEGAS WHEN THE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHES 80 DEGREES. FORECASTED HIGHS ARE ABOUT 8-10
DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT WHICH THEN WILL CARRY INTO MONDAY. LIGHT
WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

MODEL FORECASTS FOR DAY 7 (MONDAY) AND BEYOND ARE QUITE DIFFERENT.
ALL ANALYZED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A STRONG LOW
THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC TOWARDS THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
DIFFERENCES SURFACE REGARDING TIMING, STRENGTH AND TRACK. IF THE
CURRENT GFS SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY, A SIGNIFICANT LOW COULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BEYOND THE OFFICIAL 7-DAY FORECAST HINTING AT A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12 KTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND WILL FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION BUT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10KTS. FEW CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 8-18 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT GUSTING 25-30
KTS. WINDS DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL
TRENDS. ON WEDNESDAY AREAS NORTH OF LAS VEGAS WILL SEE NORTHWESTERLY
TO NORTHERLY WINDS AT 5-15KTS AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

MORGAN/STUMPF/SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KVEF 152205
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
305 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY WILL BRING ENHANCED WINDS AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUD DECK ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT BUT HIGH CLOUD DECK TIED TO
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CAN BE SEEN ENTERING CENTRAL NEVADA. LITTLE
IF ANY NOTICEABLE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE
EXCEPT FOR INCREASED CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF LINCOLN COUNTY
WEDNESDAY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE LATEST MODEL FORECASTS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY SHOWED 24
HRS AGO. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
COAST THURSDAY DRIFTS INLAND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY. RIDGING DEVELOPS
BEHIND THIS EXITING SYSTEM BUT IS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE COULD BE SOME INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL  INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE CLOUD
COVER AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
IN GENERAL WILL BE LIGHT AND IMPACTS WILL MINIMAL. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE SOUTH 10-20 MPH FRIDAY BUT SHOULD THEN BECOME LIGHT ON
SATURDAY. LOWER HEIGHTS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SUNDAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE YEAR IN LAS VEGAS WHEN THE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHES 80 DEGREES. FORECASTED HIGHS ARE ABOUT 8-10
DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT WHICH THEN WILL CARRY INTO MONDAY. LIGHT
WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

MODEL FORECASTS FOR DAY 7 (MONDAY) AND BEYOND ARE QUITE DIFFERENT.
ALL ANALYZED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A STRONG LOW
THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC TOWARDS THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
DIFFERENCES SURFACE REGARDING TIMING, STRENGTH AND TRACK. IF THE
CURRENT GFS SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY, A SIGNIFICANT LOW COULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BEYOND THE OFFICIAL 7-DAY FORECAST HINTING AT A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12 KTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND WILL FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION BUT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10KTS. FEW CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 8-18 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT GUSTING 25-30
KTS. WINDS DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL
TRENDS. ON WEDNESDAY AREAS NORTH OF LAS VEGAS WILL SEE NORTHWESTERLY
TO NORTHERLY WINDS AT 5-15KTS AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

STUMPF/SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER














000
FXUS65 KVEF 151610
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
910 AM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH CLOUDS
DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
SLIDE BY THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING ENHANCED WINDS AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH REMOTE CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AS DISTURBANCES
ROLL BY.
&&

.UPDATE...VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWING A FAIRLY
THICK PATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. CLOUDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE TONIGHT. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT WILL KEEP
CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. BUMPED TEMPERATURES
DOWN SLIGHTLY IN A FEW LOCATIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER UPDATES ARE
NECESSARY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
330 AM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
OVERNIGHT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE
CWA AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK AND OUTSIDE OF A MINOR WIND
SHIFT OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES IT REALLY WILL NOT BE NOTICEABLE.
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THE
PAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING THIS FEATURE FURTHER
NORTH. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY...BUT ANY DEEPER MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA
AND HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THE LATEST MODEL FORECASTS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY SHOWED 24
HRS AGO. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
COAST THURSDAY DRIFTS INLAND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY. RIDGING DEVELOPS
BEHIND THIS EXITING SYSTEM BUT IS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE COULD BE SOME INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL  INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE CLOUD
COVER AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
IN GENERAL WILL BE LIGHT AND IMPACTS WILL MINIMAL. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE SOUTH 10-20 MPH FRIDAY BUT SHOULD THEN BECOME LIGHT ON
SATURDAY. LOWER HEIGHTS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SUNDAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE YEAR IN LAS VEGAS WHEN THE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHES 80 DEGREES. FORECASTED HIGHS ARE ABOUT 8-10
DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT WHICH THEN WILL CARRY INTO MONDAY. LIGHT
WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

MODEL FORECASTS FOR DAY 7 (MONDAY) AND BEYOND ARE QUITE DIFFERENT.
ALL ANALYZED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A STRONG LOW
THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC TOWARDS THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
DIFFERENCES SURFACE REGARDING TIMING, STRENGTH AND TRACK. IF THE
CURRENT GFS SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY, A SIGNIFICANT LOW COULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BEYOND THE OFFICIAL 7-DAY FORECAST HINTING AT A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL
TRENDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO A
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AT 8-12 KTS BY MID AFTERNOON. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA
25K FEET EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...LIGHT WINDS FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID-DAY TODAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON WINDS FAVORING A
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AT 8-18 KTS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A FEW AREAS SEEING GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT. SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 20K FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STUMPF
PREV DISCUSSION...GORELOW/SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER











000
FXUS65 KVEF 151035
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
330 AM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH CLOUDS
DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
SLIDE BY THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING ENHANCED WINDS AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH REMOTE CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AS DISTURBANCES
ROLL BY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

OVERNIGHT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE
CWA AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK AND OUTSIDE OF A MINOR WIND
SHIFT OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES IT REALLY WILL NOT BE NOTICEABLE.
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THE
PAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING THIS FEATURE FURTHER
NORTH. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY...BUT ANY DEEPER MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA
AND HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THE LATEST MODEL FORECASTS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY SHOWED 24
HRS AGO. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
COAST THURSDAY DRIFTS INLAND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY. RIDGING DEVELOPS
BEHIND THIS EXITING SYSTEM BUT IS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE COULD BE SOME INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL  INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE CLOUD
COVER AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
IN GENERAL WILL BE LIGHT AND IMPACTS WILL MINIMAL. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE SOUTH 10-20 MPH FRIDAY BUT SHOULD THEN BECOME LIGHT ON
SATURDAY. LOWER HEIGHTS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SUNDAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE YEAR IN LAS VEGAS WHEN THE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHES 80 DEGREES. FORECASTED HIGHS ARE ABOUT 8-10
DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT WHICH THEN WILL CARRY INTO MONDAY. LIGHT
WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

MODEL FORECASTS FOR DAY 7 (MONDAY) AND BEYOND ARE QUITE DIFFERENT.
ALL ANALYZED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A STRONG LOW
THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC TOWARDS THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
DIFFERENCES SURFACE REGARDING TIMING, STRENGTH AND TRACK. IF THE
CURRENT GFS SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY, A SIGNIFICANT LOW COULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BEYOND THE OFFICIAL 7-DAY FORECAST HINTING AT A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL
TRENDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO A
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AT 8-12 KTS BY MID AFTERNOON. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA
25K FEET EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...LIGHT WINDS FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID-DAY TODAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON WINDS FAVORING A
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AT 8-18 KTS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A FEW AREAS SEEING GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT. SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 20K FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

GORELOW/SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KVEF 150313
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
813 PM PDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS HIGH CLOUDS
DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
SLIDE BY THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING ENHANCED WINDS AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH REMOTE CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AS DISTURBANCES
ROLL BY.
&&

.UPDATE...EVENING GRIDS LOOK VERY GOOD WHEN COMPARED TO
OBSERVATIONS. NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
212 PM PDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS
DRIFTING OVER INYO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE REALLY BEGUN TO
CALM AREA-WIDE WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS MAINLY IN THE 20-25 MPH
RANGE DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER
OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. SPENT SOME MORE TIME LOOKING AT THE SKY COVER FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE TONIGHT. AN AREA OF
PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION AND THE 12Z
GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
EVOLUTION. LOOKING TO OVERNIGHT THESE CLOUDS WILL ADVECT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST ARE BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING...COVERING MUCH
OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. ESMERALDA...INYO AND WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES ARE LIKELY TO HAVE THESE PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD BY THE
TIME OF THE ECLIPSE...WHILE AREAS TO THE EAST WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF AN UNIMPEDED VIEW.

THE WEAK WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CLOUDS WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. OTHERWISE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH WINDS OF 10-20 MPH
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A
NORTHERN JET STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST COAST AND A
SOUTHERN STREAM AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. OTHER THAN MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES, THE NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER WHILE THE
SOUTHERN STREAM BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A WARM DAY WITH RIDGING OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND FORECASTED TEMPERATURES 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE
WEAK LOW INFLUENCES THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT BUT TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN AROUND
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER AND
POSSIBLY A FEW MAINLY DAYTIME MOUNTAIN INSTABILITY SHOWERS BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE AND VERY WEAK DYNAMICS SHOULD
KEEP PRECIP LIGHT WHERE SHOWERS DEVELOP. BY SUNDAY, THE LOW WEAKENS
TO THE POINT OF DISSIPATION, AND TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO 8-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS FAVORING TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SWITCHING BACK TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AT 8-12 KTS BY MID
AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHEAST WINDS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AREA WIDE. LIGHT WINDS FAVORING TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS WILL RETURN AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-DAY
TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WINDS FAVORING A SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION AT 8-18 KTS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW
AREAS SEEING GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE................MORGAN
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KVEF 142112
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
212 PM PDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS HIGH CLOUDS
DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
SLIDE BY THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING ENHANCED WINDS AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH REMOTE CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AS DISTURBANCES
ROLL BY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS
DRIFTING OVER INYO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE REALLY BEGUN TO
CALM AREA-WIDE WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS MAINLY IN THE 20-25 MPH
RANGE DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER
OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. SPENT SOME MORE TIME LOOKING AT THE SKY COVER FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE TONIGHT. AN AREA OF
PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION AND THE 12Z
GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
EVOLUTION. LOOKING TO OVERNIGHT THESE CLOUDS WILL ADVECT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST ARE BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING...COVERING MUCH
OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. ESMERALDA...INYO AND WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES ARE LIKELY TO HAVE THESE PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD BY THE
TIME OF THE ECLIPSE...WHILE AREAS TO THE EAST WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF AN UNIMPEDED VIEW.

THE WEAK WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CLOUDS WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. OTHERWISE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH WINDS OF 10-20 MPH
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A
NORTHERN JET STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST COAST AND A
SOUTHERN STREAM AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. OTHER THAN MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES, THE NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER WHILE THE
SOUTHERN STREAM BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A WARM DAY WITH RIDGING OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND FORECASTED TEMPERATURES 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE
WEAK LOW INFLUENCES THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT BUT TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN AROUND
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER AND
POSSIBLY A FEW MAINLY DAYTIME MOUNTAIN INSTABILITY SHOWERS BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE AND VERY WEAK DYNAMICS SHOULD
KEEP PRECIP LIGHT WHERE SHOWERS DEVELOP. BY SUNDAY, THE LOW WEAKENS
TO THE POINT OF DISSIPATION, AND TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO 8-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS FAVORING TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SWITCHING BACK TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AT 8-12 KTS BY MID
AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHEAST WINDS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AREA WIDE. LIGHT WINDS FAVORING TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS WILL RETURN AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-DAY
TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WINDS FAVORING A SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION AT 8-18 KTS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW
AREAS SEEING GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER









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