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000
FXUS65 KVEF 291531
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
830 AM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM SET TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL UNTIL
A WARMING TREND COMMENCES NEXT WEEK AS THINGS DRY OUT. ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING A COOLING
TREND AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE.

&&

.UPDATE...THE INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE
AND THE OVERALL THINKING REMAINS UNCHANGED. HOWEVER...SATELLITE AND
LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY THAN WHAT
THE INHERITED GRIDS INDICATED. SO I BUMPED UP THE SKY COVER FOR
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. -HARRISON-
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
240 AM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

UNUSUALLY ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH YET ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA.
EXPECT MORE WET ROADS...HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

IN THE MEANTIME...IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL BE SOME TERRAIN DRIVEN CUMULUS BUILD
UPS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY BREAK OUT IN THE MOUNTAINS OF MOHAVE AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES...PERHAPS THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AS WELL. BUT THE COVERAGE
WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.  TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL WARM SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE THURSDAYS HIGHS...BUT STILL AVERAGE 2 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW LATE APRIL NORMALS.

ATTENTION WILL THEN SHIFT UPSTREAM AS AN ENERGETIC SHORT WAVE DIVES
SOUTHWARD AND CLOSES OFF NORTH OF RENO. AS THIS SYSTEM DIVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN LATE TONIGHT INCREASING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BREAK OUT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 15 SUPPORTED BY
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A CONCENTRATED BAND OF PRECIPITATION FORMING JUST NORTH OF
THE I-15 CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS
THE SPRING MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM BENEATH THE CLOSED LOW BY MID MORNING
THANKS TO CHILLY 500 MB TEMPS OF -20C OR COLDER.  THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG DYNAMICS AND MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BENEATH A VERY
COLD CORE ALOFT FOR LATE APRIL MAKE THIS SYSTEM LIKELY TO PRODUCE AT
LEAST A FEW STRONG STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  GUSTY WINDS...SMALL
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF DIMES...AND EVEN A COLD AIR FUNNEL CLOUD WILL BE
POSSIBLE THE STRONGER ACTIVITY WHICH DEVELOPS.  THESE STORMS WILL BE
MOST FAVORED ACROSS OUR DESERTS AND MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE INSTABILITY
WILL BE THE GREATEST.  INSTABILITY MAY BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY
CLOUDS AND RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR SOME MORE STORMY
WEATHER.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ABOVE 6500 FEET. LIGHT AND SLUSHY
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR MOUNT CHARLESTON
LODGE BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SEVERAL INCHES LIKELY ABOVE THE
8500 FOOT LEVEL. LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA BUT A COUPLE
OF INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL ABOVE 7000 FEET.  GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND POCKETS OF BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS
INYO COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.  RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL MEAN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDEST SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS AROUND...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING SLIGHTLY BUT REMAINING COOL ON SUNDAY.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THEN A LARGE EASTERN PACIFIC CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AND CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

AS THE WEEKEND SYSTEM EXITS...MONDAY WILL SEE SUFFICIENT LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. THE RIDGE AXIS THEN MOVES OVER
THE REGION TUESDAY AND SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THE LARGE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY SPINS UP INTO A
BROAD CLOSED CIRCULATION OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE RIDGE IS
ACTUALLY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES ALL
THE WAY UP THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEFORE HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM AND
MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN INYO COUNTY
THURSDAY THEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO ZONES WEST AND
NORTH OF LAS VEGAS BY FRIDAY WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDDAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CLOUDS NEAR 10K FT. STRONGER WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PUSH INTO THE AIRFIELD BETWEEN 22-00Z IN THE 9-12KT
RANGE. INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 10K THROUGH 12Z. CIGS MAY FALL TO 6K OR LOWER AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE VALLEY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS WITH SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDS FAVORED NEAR REGIONAL TERRAIN FEATURES. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN. OTHERWISE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST AREAS. STRONGER WEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT
WITH KDAG LIKELY SEEING GUSTS TO 30KTS AFTER 00Z. INCREASING CLOUDS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF
THE I-15 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE NIGHT.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND.  SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 291531
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
830 AM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM SET TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL UNTIL
A WARMING TREND COMMENCES NEXT WEEK AS THINGS DRY OUT. ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING A COOLING
TREND AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE.

&&

.UPDATE...THE INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE
AND THE OVERALL THINKING REMAINS UNCHANGED. HOWEVER...SATELLITE AND
LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY THAN WHAT
THE INHERITED GRIDS INDICATED. SO I BUMPED UP THE SKY COVER FOR
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. -HARRISON-
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
240 AM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

UNUSUALLY ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH YET ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA.
EXPECT MORE WET ROADS...HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

IN THE MEANTIME...IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL BE SOME TERRAIN DRIVEN CUMULUS BUILD
UPS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY BREAK OUT IN THE MOUNTAINS OF MOHAVE AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES...PERHAPS THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AS WELL. BUT THE COVERAGE
WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.  TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL WARM SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE THURSDAYS HIGHS...BUT STILL AVERAGE 2 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW LATE APRIL NORMALS.

ATTENTION WILL THEN SHIFT UPSTREAM AS AN ENERGETIC SHORT WAVE DIVES
SOUTHWARD AND CLOSES OFF NORTH OF RENO. AS THIS SYSTEM DIVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN LATE TONIGHT INCREASING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BREAK OUT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 15 SUPPORTED BY
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A CONCENTRATED BAND OF PRECIPITATION FORMING JUST NORTH OF
THE I-15 CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS
THE SPRING MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM BENEATH THE CLOSED LOW BY MID MORNING
THANKS TO CHILLY 500 MB TEMPS OF -20C OR COLDER.  THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG DYNAMICS AND MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BENEATH A VERY
COLD CORE ALOFT FOR LATE APRIL MAKE THIS SYSTEM LIKELY TO PRODUCE AT
LEAST A FEW STRONG STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  GUSTY WINDS...SMALL
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF DIMES...AND EVEN A COLD AIR FUNNEL CLOUD WILL BE
POSSIBLE THE STRONGER ACTIVITY WHICH DEVELOPS.  THESE STORMS WILL BE
MOST FAVORED ACROSS OUR DESERTS AND MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE INSTABILITY
WILL BE THE GREATEST.  INSTABILITY MAY BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY
CLOUDS AND RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR SOME MORE STORMY
WEATHER.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ABOVE 6500 FEET. LIGHT AND SLUSHY
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR MOUNT CHARLESTON
LODGE BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SEVERAL INCHES LIKELY ABOVE THE
8500 FOOT LEVEL. LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA BUT A COUPLE
OF INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL ABOVE 7000 FEET.  GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND POCKETS OF BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS
INYO COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.  RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL MEAN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDEST SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS AROUND...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING SLIGHTLY BUT REMAINING COOL ON SUNDAY.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THEN A LARGE EASTERN PACIFIC CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AND CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

AS THE WEEKEND SYSTEM EXITS...MONDAY WILL SEE SUFFICIENT LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. THE RIDGE AXIS THEN MOVES OVER
THE REGION TUESDAY AND SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THE LARGE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY SPINS UP INTO A
BROAD CLOSED CIRCULATION OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE RIDGE IS
ACTUALLY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES ALL
THE WAY UP THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEFORE HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM AND
MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN INYO COUNTY
THURSDAY THEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO ZONES WEST AND
NORTH OF LAS VEGAS BY FRIDAY WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDDAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CLOUDS NEAR 10K FT. STRONGER WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PUSH INTO THE AIRFIELD BETWEEN 22-00Z IN THE 9-12KT
RANGE. INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 10K THROUGH 12Z. CIGS MAY FALL TO 6K OR LOWER AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE VALLEY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS WITH SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDS FAVORED NEAR REGIONAL TERRAIN FEATURES. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN. OTHERWISE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST AREAS. STRONGER WEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT
WITH KDAG LIKELY SEEING GUSTS TO 30KTS AFTER 00Z. INCREASING CLOUDS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF
THE I-15 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE NIGHT.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND.  SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 290942
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
240 AM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM SET TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL UNTIL
A WARMING TREND COMMENCES NEXT WEEK AS THINGS DRY OUT. ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING A COOLING
TREND AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

UNUSUALLY ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH YET ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA.
EXPECT MORE WET ROADS...HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

IN THE MEANTIME...IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL BE SOME TERRAIN DRIVEN CUMULUS BUILD
UPS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY BREAK OUT IN THE MOUNTAINS OF MOHAVE AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES...PERHAPS THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AS WELL. BUT THE COVERAGE
WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.  TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL WARM SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE THURSDAYS HIGHS...BUT STILL AVERAGE 2 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW LATE APRIL NORMALS.

ATTENTION WILL THEN SHIFT UPSTREAM AS AN ENERGETIC SHORT WAVE DIVES
SOUTHWARD AND CLOSES OFF NORTH OF RENO. AS THIS SYSTEM DIVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN LATE TONIGHT INCREASING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BREAK OUT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 15 SUPPORTED BY
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A CONCENTRATED BAND OF PRECIPITATION FORMING JUST NORTH OF
THE I-15 CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS
THE SPRING MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM BENEATH THE CLOSED LOW BY MID MORNING
THANKS TO CHILLY 500 MB TEMPS OF -20C OR COLDER.  THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG DYNAMICS AND MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BENEATH A VERY
COLD CORE ALOFT FOR LATE APRIL MAKE THIS SYSTEM LIKELY TO PRODUCE AT
LEAST A FEW STRONG STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  GUSTY WINDS...SMALL
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF DIMES...AND EVEN A COLD AIR FUNNEL CLOUD WILL BE
POSSIBLE THE STRONGER ACTIVITY WHICH DEVELOPS.  THESE STORMS WILL BE
MOST FAVORED ACROSS OUR DESERTS AND MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE INSTABILITY
WILL BE THE GREATEST.  INSTABILITY MAY BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY
CLOUDS AND RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR SOME MORE STORMY
WEATHER.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ABOVE 6500 FEET. LIGHT AND SLUSHY
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR MOUNT CHARLESTON
LODGE BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SEVERAL INCHES LIKELY ABOVE THE
8500 FOOT LEVEL. LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA BUT A COUPLE
OF INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL ABOVE 7000 FEET.  GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND POCKETS OF BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS
INYO COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.  RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL MEAN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDEST SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS AROUND...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING SLIGHTLY BUT REMAINING COOL ON SUNDAY.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THEN A LARGE EASTERN PACIFIC CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AND CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

AS THE WEEKEND SYSTEM EXITS...MONDAY WILL SEE SUFFICIENT LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. THE RIDGE AXIS THEN MOVES OVER
THE REGION TUESDAY AND SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THE LARGE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY SPINS UP INTO A
BROAD CLOSED CIRCULATION OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE RIDGE IS
ACTUALLY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES ALL
THE WAY UP THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEFORE HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM AND
MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN INYO COUNTY
THURSDAY THEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO ZONES WEST AND
NORTH OF LAS VEGAS BY FRIDAY WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDDAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CLOUDS NEAR 10K FT. STRONGER WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PUSH INTO THE AIRFIELD BETWEEN 22-00Z IN THE 9-12KT
RANGE. INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 10K THROUGH 12Z. CIGS MAY FALL TO 6K OR LOWER AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE VALLEY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS WITH SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDS FAVORED NEAR REGIONAL TERRAIN FEATURES. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN. OTHERWISE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST AREAS. STRONGER WEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT
WITH KDAG LIKELY SEEING GUSTS TO 30KTS AFTER 00Z. INCREASING CLOUDS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF
THE I-15 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE NIGHT.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND.  SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 290357
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
900 PM PDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK
FRIDAY...ANOTHER STORM WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
INTO MONDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...ONE LAST HURRAH WITH ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AT THIS HOUR. NO LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
DETECTED WITH THIS BATCH BUT A FEW ADDITIONAL HUNDREDTHS OF RAINFALL
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 930 PM.  FURTHER SOUTH....REMAINS OF
CONVECTION WHICH EARLIER PROGRESSED THROUGH THE VEGAS METRO IS NOW
APPROACHING KINGMAN WITH SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
EMBEDDED LIGHTNING. THE INTENSITY OF THIS BATCH IS CONSIDERABLY
WEAKER THAN OBSERVED A FEW HOURS AGO.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS LIKELY BEEN THE CULPRIT OF A CIRCULATION
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA COMING DOWN THE BACKSIDE
OF OUR DEPARTING CLOSED LOW AND INTERACTING WITH A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE.  WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT I WILL BOOST POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOHAVE COUNTY TO ACCOMMODATE ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND THE
LIKLEYHOOD OF IT PERSISTING A LITTLE BEYOND 11 PM.

-OUTLER-

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA WAS GENERATING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT SHOULD MAINLY COME
TO AN END OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA. SOME OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE
AREA WILL BE UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE EXITING LOW
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE ALREADY MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES. THIS NEXT UPPER LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SOUTH TO
SOUTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
OVER LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS OF CLARK
COUNTY. AFTER A BRIEF WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...THIS LOW WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. THE
LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY BUT WILL WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING IN MOST AREAS. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES BUMPING UP TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO PUSH THE RIDGE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE LOW MAY PUSH JUST FAR
ENOUGH EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WORKING
INTO THE SIERRA BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SHOWERS MAY LEAD TO ERRATIC
AND SOMEWHAT GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION MAINLY UNDER 10 KTS BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW. CIGS WITH SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO ABOUT 6K FT. CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WELL AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. REDUCED CIGS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR SHOWERS AS LOW AS 3-5K FT AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE AND NORTHERN INYO COUNTIES WILL ALSO SEE
PERSISTENT WINDS NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS
EXCEEDING 35KTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS
POSSIBLE NEAR KDAG.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 290357
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
900 PM PDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK
FRIDAY...ANOTHER STORM WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
INTO MONDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...ONE LAST HURRAH WITH ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AT THIS HOUR. NO LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
DETECTED WITH THIS BATCH BUT A FEW ADDITIONAL HUNDREDTHS OF RAINFALL
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 930 PM.  FURTHER SOUTH....REMAINS OF
CONVECTION WHICH EARLIER PROGRESSED THROUGH THE VEGAS METRO IS NOW
APPROACHING KINGMAN WITH SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
EMBEDDED LIGHTNING. THE INTENSITY OF THIS BATCH IS CONSIDERABLY
WEAKER THAN OBSERVED A FEW HOURS AGO.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS LIKELY BEEN THE CULPRIT OF A CIRCULATION
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA COMING DOWN THE BACKSIDE
OF OUR DEPARTING CLOSED LOW AND INTERACTING WITH A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE.  WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT I WILL BOOST POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOHAVE COUNTY TO ACCOMMODATE ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND THE
LIKLEYHOOD OF IT PERSISTING A LITTLE BEYOND 11 PM.

-OUTLER-

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA WAS GENERATING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT SHOULD MAINLY COME
TO AN END OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA. SOME OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE
AREA WILL BE UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE EXITING LOW
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE ALREADY MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES. THIS NEXT UPPER LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SOUTH TO
SOUTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
OVER LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS OF CLARK
COUNTY. AFTER A BRIEF WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...THIS LOW WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. THE
LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY BUT WILL WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING IN MOST AREAS. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES BUMPING UP TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO PUSH THE RIDGE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE LOW MAY PUSH JUST FAR
ENOUGH EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WORKING
INTO THE SIERRA BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SHOWERS MAY LEAD TO ERRATIC
AND SOMEWHAT GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION MAINLY UNDER 10 KTS BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW. CIGS WITH SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO ABOUT 6K FT. CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WELL AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. REDUCED CIGS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR SHOWERS AS LOW AS 3-5K FT AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE AND NORTHERN INYO COUNTIES WILL ALSO SEE
PERSISTENT WINDS NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS
EXCEEDING 35KTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS
POSSIBLE NEAR KDAG.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 290154
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
650 PM PDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK
FRIDAY...ANOTHER STORM WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
INTO MONDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF CONVECTION IN THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY...IN APRIL NO LESS! STRONG STORMS HAVE SINCE CLEARED THE
VALLEY BUT AN ORGANIZED BAND CONTINUES TO SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR
BOULDER CITY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SEARCHLIGHT. INTERESTING RADAR
PRESENTATION AT THIS TIME WITH A SMALL BOOKEND VORTICY NOTED ALONG
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS LINE SOUTH OF BOULDER CITY.

GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE WERE THE PRIMARY IMPACTS
OF THIS STORM COMPLEX SO FAR...WITH SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AS
WELL. A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE FLARED UP BETWEEN COTTONWOOD COVE
AND DOLAN SPRINGS...AND NEAR LAKE MEAD. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH A
RESERVOIR OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE TO WORK WITH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN RIVER BASIN AND CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTY.

FURTHER NORTH...A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BUT
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  AN
UPDATE WAS SENT OUT ABOUT A HALF HOUR AGO AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

-OUTLER-

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA WAS GENERATING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT SHOULD MAINLY COME
TO AN END OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA. SOME OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE
AREA WILL BE UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE EXITING LOW
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE ALREADY MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES. THIS NEXT UPPER LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SOUTH TO
SOUTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
OVER LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS OF CLARK
COUNTY. AFTER A BRIEF WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...THIS LOW WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. THE
LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY BUT WILL WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING IN MOST AREAS. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES BUMPING UP TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO PUSH THE RIDGE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE LOW MAY PUSH JUST FAR
ENOUGH EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WORKING
INTO THE SIERRA BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SHOWERS MAY LEAD TO ERRATIC
AND SOMEWHAT GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION MAINLY UNDER 10 KTS BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW. CIGS WITH SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO ABOUT 6K FT. CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WELL AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. REDUCED CIGS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR SHOWERS AS LOW AS 3-5K FT AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE AND NORTHERN INYO COUNTIES WILL ALSO SEE
PERSISTENT WINDS NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS
EXCEEDING 35KTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS
POSSIBLE NEAR KDAG.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 282155
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
255 PM PDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK
FRIDAY...ANOTHER STORM WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
INTO MONDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA WAS GENERATING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT SHOULD MAINLY COME
TO AN END OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA. SOME OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE
AREA WILL BE UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE EXITING LOW
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE ALREADY MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES. THIS NEXT UPPER LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SOUTH TO
SOUTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
OVER LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS OF CLARK
COUNTY. AFTER A BRIEF WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...THIS LOW WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. THE
LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY BUT WILL WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING IN MOST AREAS. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES BUMPING UP TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO PUSH THE RIDGE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE LOW MAY PUSH JUST FAR
ENOUGH EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WORKING
INTO THE SIERRA BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SHOWERS MAY LEAD TO ERRATIC
AND SOMEWHAT GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION MAINLY UNDER 10 KTS BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW. CIGS WITH SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO ABOUT 6K FT. CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WELL AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. REDUCED CIGS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR SHOWERS AS LOW AS 3-5K FT AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE AND NORTHERN INYO COUNTIES WILL ALSO SEE
PERSISTENT WINDS NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS
EXCEEDING 35KTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS
POSSIBLE NEAR KDAG.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 281630
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
930 AM PDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK
FRIDAY...ANOTHER STORM WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
INTO MONDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION THAT ROLLED THROUGH LAS VEGAS
EARLY THIS MORNING WAS WEAKENING AND HEADING FOR THE KINGMAN AREA
WITH SOME CLEARING BEHIND IT. THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WAS OVER NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST TODAY. MORE MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND BEHIND THE LOW INTO THE
AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES LEADING TO DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
SO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. OVERALL THE FORECAST
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR TODAY AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED THIS
MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...AN AREA OF RAIN HAS EXITED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF LAS VEGAS BUT THERE IS A DECENT POSSIBILITY OF
MORESHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN BY
MIDAFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS DRIFTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO THE
VALLEY. CIGS WITH SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO ABOUT 6K FT. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST BUT ANTICIPATE NORTHWEST WINDS BEING
THE FAVORED DIRECTION BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
COMPLICATE THINGS AND MAKE FOR PERIODS OF VARIABILITY AND GUSTINESS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AS WELL AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. REDUCED CIGS CAN BEEXPECTED
NEAR SHOWERS AS LOW AS 3-5K FT AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS ANDMOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES WILL ALSO SEE PERSISTENT WINDS
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 35KTS AT TIMES. GUSTY
WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30KTS POSSIBLE NEAR KDAG.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
320 AM PDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MUCH CALMER WEATHER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO A FEW HOURS AGO WHEN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF
OUR DESERTS. MESO-VORTEX FEATURE STILL EVIDENT ON LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY NOW LOCATED NEAR DOLAN SPRINGS WITH A BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN PINWHEELING AROUND IT FROM NEAR PEACH SPRINGS TOWARDS
LAKE MEAD.  ADDITIONAL LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE ALSO DRIFTING ACROSS
SOUTHERN INYO COUNTY SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. ANTICIPATE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS THIS TREND CONTINUING WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
BREAKING OUT ACROSS NORTHERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND CLARK
COUNTIES ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE CLOSED LOW.

THE PRIMARY CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST INTO ARIZONA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE SLIDING
DOWN BEHIND IT WHICH WILL WORK TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE
GREAT BASIN SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
GIVEN THE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE AGAIN POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD BE LESS ORGANIZED THAN OBSERVED
WEDNESDAY. THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LARGELY TERRAIN
DRIVEN...WHICH IS WHERE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL
EXIST. AFTER SUNSET...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE
AIRMASS STABILIZES.  IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...WE CAN ALSO
ANTICIPATE SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL
NYE COUNTIES...WHERE A FEW GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH ARE LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THANKS TO
THE COOLING BROUGHT BY THIS STORM SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS IN THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW LIFTING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A
FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST
AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAINLY OVER LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. THE INCOMING LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO DIVE DOWN THE CALIFORNIA NEVADA BORDER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND THE LATEST MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL COME IN A LITTLE FASTER THAN WAS INDICATED 24
HOURS AGO. THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW IS NOW FORECAST TO BE JUST
WEST OF LAS VEGAS BY MID SATURDAY MORNING AND NEAR LAKE HAVASU BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
WHAT OCCURRED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THAT SYSTEM
DROPPED IN. POP VALUES WERE INCREASED TO BETWEEN 40 AND 70 PERCENT
ACROSS MOST ZONES. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO LOWERED BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS LOWERING 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM FRIDAYS
READINGS...LIKELY NOT MAKING IT ABOVE 70 DEGREES IN LAS VEGAS. THE
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND TO PRODUCE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY.

A DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES
MONDAY WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
AN INCREASING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY FOR WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING BACK ABOVE 90 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT REGION.
THIS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC LOW WHICH IS
STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK SO THE
WARMUP WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...HARRISON
SHORT TERM...OUTLER
LONG TERM...ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
!--NOT SENT--!





000
FXUS65 KVEF 281031 CCA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
320 AM PDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK
FRIDAY...ANOTHER STORM WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MUCH CALMER WEATHER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO A FEW HOURS AGO WHEN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF
OUR DESERTS. MESO-VORTEX FEATURE STILL EVIDENT ON LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY NOW LOCATED NEAR DOLAN SPRINGS WITH A BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN PINWHEELING AROUND IT FROM NEAR PEACH SPRINGS TOWARDS
LAKE MEAD.  ADDITIONAL LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE ALSO DRIFTING ACROSS
SOUTHERN INYO COUNTY SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. ANTICIPATE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS THIS TREND CONTINUING WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
BREAKING OUT ACROSS NORTHERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND CLARK
COUNTIES ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE CLOSED LOW.

THE PRIMARY CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST INTO ARIZONA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE SLIDING
DOWN BEHIND IT WHICH WILL WORK TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE
GREAT BASIN SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
GIVEN THE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE AGAIN POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD BE LESS ORGANIZED THAN OBSERVED
WEDNESDAY. THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LARGELY TERRAIN
DRIVEN...WHICH IS WHERE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL
EXIST. AFTER SUNSET...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE
AIRMASS STABILIZES.  IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...WE CAN ALSO
ANTICIPATE SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL
NYE COUNTIES...WHERE A FEW GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH ARE LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THANKS TO
THE COOLING BROUGHT BY THIS STORM SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS IN THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW LIFTING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A
FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST
AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAINLY OVER LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. THE INCOMING LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO DIVE DOWN THE CALIFORNIA NEVADA BORDER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND THE LATEST MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL COME IN A LITTLE FASTER THAN WAS INDICATED 24
HOURS AGO. THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW IS NOW FORECAST TO BE JUST
WEST OF LAS VEGAS BY MID SATURDAY MORNING AND NEAR LAKE HAVASU BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
WHAT OCCURRED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THAT SYSTEM
DROPPED IN. POP VALUES WERE INCREASED TO BETWEEN 40 AND 70 PERCENT
ACROSS MOST ZONES. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO LOWERED BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS LOWERING 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM FRIDAYS
READINGS...LIKELY NOT MAKING IT ABOVE 70 DEGREES IN LAS VEGAS. THE
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND TO PRODUCE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY.

A DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES
MONDAY WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
AN INCREASING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY FOR WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING BACK ABOVE 90 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT REGION.
THIS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC LOW WHICH IS
STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK SO THE
WARMUP WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING TO BREAK OUT
AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE VALLEY. EXPECT SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY THROUGH SUNRISE WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN LIKELY AT THE
AIRFIELD. CIGS MAY FALL TO AS LOW AS 5K BY SUNRISE. A BREAK IN THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS LIFTING TO
BETWEEN 6-8K. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL AS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN BY MID AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS
DRIFTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO THE VALLEY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
WIND FORECAST BUT ANTICIPATE NORTHWEST WINDS BEING THE FAVORED
DIRECTION BETWEEN 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL COMPLICATE THINGS AND MAKE FOR PERIODS OF VARIABILITY AND
GUSTINESS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AS WELL AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. REDUCED CIGS CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR SHOWERS AS LOW AS 3-5K AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES WILL ALSO SEE PERSISTENT WINDS
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 35KTS AT TIMES. GUSTY
WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30KTS POSSIBLE NEAR KDAG.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
!--NOT SENT--!





000
FXUS65 KVEF 281021
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
320 AM PDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK
FRIDAY...ANOTHER STORM WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MUCH CALMER WEATHER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO A FEW HOURS AGO WHEN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF
OUR DESERTS. MESO-VORTEX FEATURE STILL EVIDENT ON LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY NOW LOCATED NEAR DOLAN SPRINGS WITH A BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN PINWHEELING AROUND IT FROM NEAR PEACH SPRINGS TOWARDS
LAKE MEAD.  ADDITIONAL LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE ALSO DRIFTING ACROSS
SOUTHERN INYO COUNTY SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. ANTICIPATE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS THIS TREND CONTINUING WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
BREAKING OUT ACROSS NORTHERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND CLARK
COUNTIES ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE CLOSED LOW.

THE PRIMARY CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST INTO ARIZONA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE SLIDING
DOWN BEHIND IT WHICH WILL WORK TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE
GREAT BASIN SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
GIVEN THE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE AGAIN POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD BE LESS ORGANIZED THAN OBSERVED
WEDNESDAY. THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LARGELY TERRAIN
DRIVEN...WHICH IS WHERE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL
EXIST. AFTER SUNSET...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE
AIRMASS STABILIZES.  IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...WE CAN ALSO
ANTICIPATE SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL
NYE COUNTIES...WHERE A FEW GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH ARE LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THANKS TO
THE COOLING BROUGHT BY THIS STORM SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS IN THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW LIFTING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A
FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST
AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAINLY OVER LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. THE INCOMING LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO DIVE DOWN THE CALIFORNIA NEVADA BORDER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND THE LATEST MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL COME IN A LITTLE FASTER THAN WAS INDICATED 24
HOURS AGO. THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW IS NOW FORECAST TO BE JUST
WEST OF LAS VEGAS BY MID SATURDAY MORNING AND NEAR LAKE HAVASU BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
WHAT OCCURRED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THAT SYSTEM
DROPPED IN. POP VALUES WERE INCREASED TO BETWEEN 40 AND 70 PERCENT
ACROSS MOST ZONES. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO LOWERED BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS LOWERING 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM FRIDAYS
READINGS...LIKELY NOT MAKE IT ABOVE 70 DEGREES IN LAS VEGAS. THE
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND TO PRODUCE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY.

A DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES
MONDAY WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
AN INCREASING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY FOR WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING BACK ABOVE 90 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT REGION.
THIS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC LOW WHICH IS
STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK SO THE
WARMUP WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING TO BREAK OUT
AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE VALLEY. EXPECT SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY THROUGH SUNRISE WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN LIKELY AT THE
AIRFIELD. CIGS MAY FALL TO AS LOW AS 5K BY SUNRISE. A BREAK IN THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS LIFTING TO
BETWEEN 6-8K. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL AS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN BY MID AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS
DRIFTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO THE VALLEY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
WIND FORECAST BUT ANTICIPATE NORTHWEST WINDS BEING THE FAVORED
DIRECTION BETWEEN 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL COMPLICATE THINGS AND MAKE FOR PERIODS OF VARIABILITY AND
GUSTINESS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AS WELL AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. REDUCED CIGS CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR SHOWERS AS LOW AS 3-5K AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES WILL ALSO SEE PERSISTENT WINDS
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 35KTS AT TIMES. GUSTY
WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30KTS POSSIBLE NEAR KDAG.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
!--NOT SENT--!





000
FXUS65 KVEF 280605
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1105 PM PDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK FRIDAY...ANOTHER STORM WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...THINGS ARE BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING BUT
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY CONTINUES NEAR LAKE HAVASU CITY AND MORE
SPORADICALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTY.  BEST CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL STORMS AT THIS POINT ARE ACROSS SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
WITH VORT MAX PUSHING THROUGH WILL ENHANCE FORCING. ELSEWHERE...SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
NOT QUITE LIKE THE SHOW WE SAW EARLIER THIS EVENING.

QUICK RUNDOWN OF PRECIPITATION TOTALS SHOWS OUR BIG WINNER BEING
NEEDLES WHERE 0.17" HAS FALLEN AS OF 11PM. MCCARRAN AIRPORT PICKED
UP 0.04 INCHES AND HENDERSON PICKED UP 0.05 INCHES...WHICH ARE THE
KIND OF NUMBERS THAT ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF MOST OF THE VALLEY.  SOME
STRONG WINDS OCCURRED AS WELL...WITH A SPOTTER IN PAHRUMP REPORTING A
PEAK GUST TO 52 MPH...LAKE HAVASU AND TWENTYNINE PALMS BOTH GUSTING
TO 47 MPH...AND BULLHEAD CITY GUSTING TO 45 MPH.

WITH THINGS TRENDING DOWNWARD...THIS WILL BE THE LAST MESOSCALE
UPDATE TONIGHT.

-OUTLER-

&&

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA WITH SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF
LAS VEGAS SO FAR. SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED JUST NORTH OF
INYO COUNTY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA. GUSTY WEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. AREAS OF GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH MOS GUIDANCE
AND HI-RES MODELS INDICATING GUSTS OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS
ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES. I ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY THERE
FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY WITH THE LOW OVER THE AREA AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL SEE A BREAK FRIDAY BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER MOHAVE COUNTY DUE TO THE EXITING LOW WHILE THE NEXT
SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER LINCOLN
COUNTY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME WARMING FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. I INCREASED
POPS FROM WHAT I INHERITED IN THOSE AREAS. WE MAY ALSO SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT OVERHEAD. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER
LOW WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY...THE MODELS AGREE IN
GENERATING SOME SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TUESDAY. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST
ALREADY BY WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY AND WARM PATTERN WITH MOISTURE
STAYING OFF TO THE WEST.&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 5
TO 15 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT TIMES.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TONIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME AREAS WILL SEE CIGS AS
LOW AS 3-5K FT. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AS
WELL WHERE GUSTS MAY EXCEED 35KTS AT TIMES. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT...CONTINUING THURSDAY WITH GUSTS
OVER 35 KTS ACROSS ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 280359
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
900 PM PDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK FRIDAY...ANOTHER STORM WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES AS OF 9PM THIS EVENING.
TWO CONCENTRATED AREAS OF ACTIVITY ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS...ONE
NEARING THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND ONE IN THE EASTERN MOJAVE DESERT
APPROACHING THE COLORADO RIVER.  ACTIVITY NEARING LAS VEGAS SEEMS TO
BE SLOWLY LOSING STEAM AS IT CREEPS IN BASED ON LIGHTNING AND RADAR
TRENDS BUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES AS WELL AS A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES REMAIN LIKELY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
INSTABILITY IS BEGINNING TO DWINDLE FOR THIS BATCH HOWEVER.  CURRENT
DATA FROM TLAS DOES INDICATE A BROAD PUSH OF SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY IN THE 20-30 MPH WITH SOME SPOTTY GUSTS TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE.

FURTHER SOUTH...A LINE FROM DOLAN SPRINGS TO SOUTH OF ESSEX
CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD. STRONGER FORCING WITH THIS BATCH
MAY KEEP THINGS GOING LATER INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS OUR RIVER CITIES
FROM BULLHEAD CITY DOWN TO LAKE HAVASU. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS
WELL.

WILL MAKE A QUICK UPDATE TO BOOST POPS FOR OUR RIVER CITIES THIS
EVENING BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

-OUTLER-



-OUTLER-

&&

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA WITH SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF
LAS VEGAS SO FAR. SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED JUST NORTH OF
INYO COUNTY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA. GUSTY WEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. AREAS OF GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH MOS GUIDANCE
AND HI-RES MODELS INDICATING GUSTS OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS
ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES. I ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY THERE
FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY WITH THE LOW OVER THE AREA AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL SEE A BREAK FRIDAY BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER MOHAVE COUNTY DUE TO THE EXITING LOW WHILE THE NEXT
SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER LINCOLN
COUNTY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME WARMING FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. I INCREASED
POPS FROM WHAT I INHERITED IN THOSE AREAS. WE MAY ALSO SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT OVERHEAD. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER
LOW WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY...THE MODELS AGREE IN
GENERATING SOME SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TUESDAY. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST
ALREADY BY WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY AND WARM PATTERN WITH MOISTURE
STAYING OFF TO THE WEST.&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH CIGS LOWERING TO BETWEEN 7-8K FT AT TIMES. SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BE
MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT TIMES.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TONIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME AREAS WILL SEE CIGS AS
LOW AS 3-5K FT. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AS
WELL WHERE GUSTS MAY EXCEED 35KTS AT TIMES. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT...CONTINUING THURSDAY WITH GUSTS
OVER 35 KTS ACROSS ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 280205
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
705 PM PDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK FRIDAY...ANOTHER STORM WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...JUST A QUICK UPDATE ON THE CURRENT STATE OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. A RATHER BROAD AND CONCENTRATED AREA OF HIGH BASED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN INYO AND NORTHERN
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN LIGHT THUS FAR. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY A
LOBE OF VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED FORCED VERTICAL ASCENT WITHIN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND GIVEN THE DRY SURFACE LAYER
(DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE VEGAS VALLEY)...MAINLY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND SPRINKLES INITIALLY. WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATING A CLASSIC INVERTED V TYPE SCENARIO...GUSTY
WINDS OVER 40 MPH ARE QUITE POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS.

ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER THE SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS WHICH MAY DRIFT TOWARDS THE YUCCA VALLEY AND
MORONGO BASIN LATER THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WILL
BE PRIMARY CONCERN THERE AS WELL.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND UPDATE AGAIN IN A COUPLE OF HOURS.

-OUTLER-

&&

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA WITH SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF
LAS VEGAS SO FAR. SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED JUST NORTH OF
INYO COUNTY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA. GUSTY WEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. AREAS OF GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH MOS GUIDANCE
AND HI-RES MODELS INDICATING GUSTS OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS
ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES. I ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY THERE
FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY WITH THE LOW OVER THE AREA AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL SEE A BREAK FRIDAY BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER MOHAVE COUNTY DUE TO THE EXITING LOW WHILE THE NEXT
SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER LINCOLN
COUNTY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME WARMING FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. I INCREASED
POPS FROM WHAT I INHERITED IN THOSE AREAS. WE MAY ALSO SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT OVERHEAD. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER
LOW WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY...THE MODELS AGREE IN
GENERATING SOME SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TUESDAY. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST
ALREADY BY WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY AND WARM PATTERN WITH MOISTURE
STAYING OFF TO THE WEST.&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH CIGS LOWERING TO BETWEEN 7-8K FT AT TIMES. SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BE
MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT TIMES.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TONIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME AREAS WILL SEE CIGS AS
LOW AS 3-5K FT. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AS
WELL WHERE GUSTS MAY EXCEED 35KTS AT TIMES. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT...CONTINUING THURSDAY WITH GUSTS
OVER 35 KTS ACROSS ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 272158
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
257 PM PDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK FRIDAY...ANOTHER STORM WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA WITH SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF
LAS VEGAS SO FAR. SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED JUST NORTH OF
INYO COUNTY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA. GUSTY WEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. AREAS OF GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH MOS GUIDANCE
AND HI-RES MODELS INDICATING GUSTS OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS
ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES. I ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY THERE
FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY WITH THE LOW OVER THE AREA AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL SEE A BREAK FRIDAY BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER MOHAVE COUNTY DUE TO THE EXITING LOW WHILE THE NEXT
SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER LINCOLN
COUNTY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME WARMING FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. I INCREASED
POPS FROM WHAT I INHERITED IN THOSE AREAS. WE MAY ALSO SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT OVERHEAD. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER
LOW WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY...THE MODELS AGREE IN
GENERATING SOME SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TUESDAY. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST
ALREADY BY WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY AND WARM PATTERN WITH MOISTURE
STAYING OFF TO THE WEST.&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH CIGS LOWERING TO BETWEEN 7-8K FT AT TIMES. SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BE
MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT TIMES.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TONIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME AREAS WILL SEE CIGS AS
LOW AS 3-5K FT. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AS
WELL WHERE GUSTS MAY EXCEED 35KTS AT TIMES. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT...CONTINUING THURSDAY WITH GUSTS
OVER 35 KTS ACROSS ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 271626
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
926 AM PDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM PUSHES INTO
THE REGION. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BREAK OUT NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 15 THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SOUTH AND EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED
BLOWING DUST CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVES IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...NO REAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING AS AN UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NEVADA TODAY. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
OUT A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM FOR LAS VEGAS THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEY WILL
MORE LIKELY REMAIN JUST NORTH UNTIL THIS EVENING. MOS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT
IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY ALTHOUGH HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT GENERALLY NOT
AS FAVORABLE. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IS PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED THIS MORNING.  -HARRISON-

.PREV DISCUSSION...
240 AM PDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM....THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE REGION CLEARLY EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SPINNING OFF THE OREGON COASTLINE. THIS LOW WILL
GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY SPREADING INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BREAKING OUT IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND DEVELOP
SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...REACHING THE I-15
CORRIDOR BY AROUND 5PM. VERY DRY AND WARM LOW LEVELS WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES WILL LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE DOWNBURSTS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE
BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE LAS VEGAS
AREA TODAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE 6P-11PM TIMEFRAME.

BESIDES THE SHOWERS...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT FROM LATE MORNING THOUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE MOST RECENT EVENT
BUT STILL CAPABLE OF A FEW GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS REASONING FOR THE WESTERN
MOJAVE DESERT AREA INCLUDING BARSTOW-DAGGETT...AND FORT IRWIN.

COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW
CENTER SLOWLY PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH THE DAY. MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS BENEATH THE DEPARTING LOW WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IT
WILL ALSO SPELL COOL TEMPERATURES DUE TO 500MB TEMPERATURES NEAR
-20C...KEEPING AFTERNOON HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ABOVE 7000 FEET...BUT ONLY A
SLUSHY COUPLE INCHES AT THE MOST IS EXPECTED UNLESS YOU ARE CLOSER
TO 10K FEET WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE LOW
WILL BEGIN TO EXIT OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY WILL HAVE A TRACK MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN WAS
INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW NOW NEAR
THE NEVADA/CALIFORNIA BORDER. IT WILL BE ABOUT AS COOL AS THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM AND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000-7500 FEET.

THE OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. IT IS ORIGINATING AS A
SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF A CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
ALEUTIANS. THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO HEAD TOWARD THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST THEN DIVE OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA/NORTHWEST NEVADA
BY SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT IS FORECAST
TO CIRCULATE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THE SURROUNDING STATES THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY OPEN UP AND LIFT ACROSS UTAH AND
COLORADO LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST NEVADA
AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA MONDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
OVER LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WAS
INCREASED BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS WERE
ALSO LOWERED CONSIDERABLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND
CLIMBING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING
LARGE EASTERN PACIFIC CLOSED LOW WHICH MAY MOVE INLAND THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK....LIKELY CONTINUING THE COOL AND WET WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...BKN-OVC SKIES TODAY WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING CIGS EXPECTED AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY. CIGS WILL START OUT AROUND 15K THROUGH MID MORNING
AND LOWER TO BETWEEN 8-10K BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH BASED
SHOWERS AND VIRGA WILL MAKE LOCALIZED STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS A POSSIBILITY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
STEADIER RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH CIGS
FALLING TO BETWEEN 6-8K FT. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS CAN EXPECTED IN THE EVENING BEFORE EASING LATE IN
THE NIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
WITH SHOWERS BREAKING OUT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 15 BY MID AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WHICH WILL CREATE
POCKETS OF CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE AND ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS. GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AS WELL WHERE GUSTS MAY
EXCEED 35KTS AT TIMES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST
IN THE EVENING WITH LOWERING CIGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 270943 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
240 AM PDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM PUSHES INTO
THE REGION. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BREAK OUT NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 15 THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SOUTH AND EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED
BLOWING DUST CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVES IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM....THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE REGION CLEARLY EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SPINNING OFF THE OREGON COASTLINE. THIS LOW WILL
GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY SPREADING INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BREAKING OUT IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND DEVELOP
SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...REACHING THE I-15
CORRIDOR BY AROUND 5PM. VERY DRY AND WARM LOW LEVELS WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES WILL LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE DOWNBURSTS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE
BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE LAS VEGAS
AREA TODAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE 6P-11PM TIMEFRAME.

BESIDES THE SHOWERS...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT FROM LATE MORNING THOUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE MOST RECENT EVENT
BUT STILL CAPABLE OF A FEW GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS REASONING FOR THE WESTERN
MOJAVE DESERT AREA INCLUDING BARSTOW-DAGGETT...AND FORT IRWIN.

COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW
CENTER SLOWLY PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH THE DAY. MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS BENEATH THE DEPARTING LOW WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IT
WILL ALSO SPELL COOL TEMPERATURES DUE TO 500MB TEMPERATURES NEAR
-20C...KEEPING AFTERNOON HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ABOVE 7000 FEET...BUT ONLY A
SLUSHY COUPLE INCHES AT THE MOST IS EXPECTED UNLESS YOU ARE CLOSER
TO 10K FEET WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE LOW
WILL BEGIN TO EXIT OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY WILL HAVE A TRACK MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN WAS
INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW NOW NEAR
THE NEVADA/CALIFORNIA BORDER. IT WILL BE ABOUT AS COOL AS THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM AND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000-7500 FEET.

THE OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. IT IS ORIGINATING AS A
SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF A CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
ALEUTIANS. THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO HEAD TOWARD THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST THEN DIVE OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA/NORTHWEST NEVADA
BY SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT IS FORECAST
TO CIRCULATE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THE SURROUNDING STATES THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY OPEN UP AND LIFT ACROSS UTAH AND
COLORADO LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST NEVADA
AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA MONDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
OVER LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WAS
INCREASED BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS WERE
ALSO LOWERED CONSIDERABLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND
CLIMBING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING
LARGE EASTERN PACIFIC CLOSED LOW WHICH MAY MOVE INLAND THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK....LIKELY CONTINUING THE COOL AND WET WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...BKN-OVC SKIES TODAY WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING CIGS EXPECTED AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY. CIGS WILL START OUT AROUND 15K THROUGH MID MORNING
AND LOWER TO BETWEEN 8-10K BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH BASED
SHOWERS AND VIRGA WILL MAKE LOCALIZED STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS A POSSIBILITY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
STEADIER RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH CIGS
FALLING TO BETWEEN 6-8K FT. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS CAN EXPECTED IN THE EVENING BEFORE EASING LATE IN
THE NIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
WITH SHOWERS BREAKING OUT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 15 BY MID AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WHICH WILL CREATE
POCKETS OF CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE AND ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS. GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AS WELL WHERE GUSTS MAY
EXCEED 35KTS AT TIMES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST
IN THE EVENING WITH LOWERING CIGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 270308 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
810 PM PDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.
&&

.UPDATED...THICK CIRRUS DECK HAS OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE AREA NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER SET TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION BEGINNING TOMORROW. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO BOOST OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION AND ADDED SOME LOW
POPS THIS EVENING TO THE SIERRA WHERE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS
EVIDENT ON OWENS VALLEY WEBCAMS PRIOR TO SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

-OUTLER-


&&

.SHORT TERM....THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST TONIGHT AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST APPROACHES THE
COAST. A CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PUSH INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN PUSH INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA/WESTERN NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD INTO THE SIERRA AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 15 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL GRADUALLY
COVER THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS THE
LOW BECOMES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. LIKE WITH THE SYSTEM
YESTERDAY THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN. SNOW
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 7000 FEET AND POSSIBLY DROP TO AS
LOW AS 6500 FEET DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT QUITE
AS COLD AS THE ONE ON MONDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO RUN ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ON A SIDE NOTE...THE RECORD
LOW MAX TEMPERATURE IN LAS VEGAS ON THURSDAY APRIL 28 IS 55 DEGREES.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE IN JEOPARDY.

WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. ALTHOUGH THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY WERE ON MONDAY ITS STILL POSSIBLE THEY
COULD REACH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. AT THIS TIME ELECTED NOT TO ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE BORDERLINE AND WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT
SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.

A FEW RESIDUAL LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MOHAVE AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME BIG CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED MODELS COMPARED TO
WHAT WE WERE LOOKING AT YESTERDAY. YESTERDAY THE MODELS WERE SHOWING
ANOTHER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NEVADA/UTAH BORDER BRINGING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...THE MODELS NOW SHOW THIS LOW TO DROP IN
MUCH FURTHER WEST BRINGING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY ALONG WITH A RETURN OF
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD ALSO BE AREAS OF GUSTY NORTH
WINDS...BUT WITH THE LOW NOW FORECAST TO TRACK FURTHER WEST MOST OF
THOSE STRONG WINDS COULD AFFECT MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW SETS UP. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT
THIS LOW COULD BE SLOW DEPARTING THE AREA SO ITS POSSIBLE WE WILL
HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE EFFECTS OF THIS LOW INTO TUESDAY. AS IT LOOKS
NOW...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS WILL SETTLE INTO THE TYPICAL
DRAINAGE PATTERN...SSW AROUND 10 KNOTS...THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL BRING LOWER CEILINGS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AFTER A QUIET NIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR
SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL REACH THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GORELOW
AVIATION...MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 270308 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
810 PM PDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.
&&

.UPDATED...THICK CIRRUS DECK HAS OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE AREA NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER SET TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION BEGINNING TOMORROW. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO BOOST OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION AND ADDED SOME LOW
POPS THIS EVENING TO THE SIERRA WHERE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS
EVIDENT ON OWENS VALLEY WEBCAMS PRIOR TO SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

-OUTLER-


&&

.SHORT TERM....THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST TONIGHT AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST APPROACHES THE
COAST. A CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PUSH INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN PUSH INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA/WESTERN NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD INTO THE SIERRA AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 15 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL GRADUALLY
COVER THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS THE
LOW BECOMES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. LIKE WITH THE SYSTEM
YESTERDAY THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN. SNOW
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 7000 FEET AND POSSIBLY DROP TO AS
LOW AS 6500 FEET DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT QUITE
AS COLD AS THE ONE ON MONDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO RUN ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ON A SIDE NOTE...THE RECORD
LOW MAX TEMPERATURE IN LAS VEGAS ON THURSDAY APRIL 28 IS 55 DEGREES.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE IN JEOPARDY.

WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. ALTHOUGH THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY WERE ON MONDAY ITS STILL POSSIBLE THEY
COULD REACH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. AT THIS TIME ELECTED NOT TO ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE BORDERLINE AND WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT
SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.

A FEW RESIDUAL LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MOHAVE AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME BIG CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED MODELS COMPARED TO
WHAT WE WERE LOOKING AT YESTERDAY. YESTERDAY THE MODELS WERE SHOWING
ANOTHER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NEVADA/UTAH BORDER BRINGING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...THE MODELS NOW SHOW THIS LOW TO DROP IN
MUCH FURTHER WEST BRINGING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY ALONG WITH A RETURN OF
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD ALSO BE AREAS OF GUSTY NORTH
WINDS...BUT WITH THE LOW NOW FORECAST TO TRACK FURTHER WEST MOST OF
THOSE STRONG WINDS COULD AFFECT MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW SETS UP. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT
THIS LOW COULD BE SLOW DEPARTING THE AREA SO ITS POSSIBLE WE WILL
HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE EFFECTS OF THIS LOW INTO TUESDAY. AS IT LOOKS
NOW...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS WILL SETTLE INTO THE TYPICAL
DRAINAGE PATTERN...SSW AROUND 10 KNOTS...THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL BRING LOWER CEILINGS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AFTER A QUIET NIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR
SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL REACH THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GORELOW
AVIATION...MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 262205 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV...CORRECTED
255 PM PDT TUE APR 26 2016

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM....THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST TONIGHT AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST APPROACHES THE
COAST. A CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PUSH INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN PUSH INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA/WESTERN NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD INTO THE SIERRA AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 15 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL GRADUALLY
COVER THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS THE
LOW BECOMES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. LIKE WITH THE SYSTEM
YESTERDAY THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN. SNOW
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 7000 FEET AND POSSIBLY DROP TO AS
LOW AS 6500 FEET DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT QUITE
AS COLD AS THE ONE ON MONDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO RUN ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ON A SIDE NOTE...THE RECORD
LOW MAX TEMPERATURE IN LAS VEGAS ON THURSDAY APRIL 28 IS 55 DEGREES.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE IN JEOPARDY.

WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. ALTHOUGH THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY WERE ON MONDAY ITS STILL POSSIBLE THEY
COULD REACH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. AT THIS TIME ELECTED NOT TO ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE BORDERLINE AND WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT
SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.

A FEW RESIDUAL LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MOHAVE AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME BIG CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED MODELS COMPARED TO
WHAT WE WERE LOOKING AT YESTERDAY. YESTERDAY THE MODELS WERE SHOWING
ANOTHER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NEVADA/UTAH BORDER BRINGING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...THE MODELS NOW SHOW THIS LOW TO DROP IN
MUCH FURTHER WEST BRINGING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY ALONG WITH A RETURN OF
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD ALSO BE AREAS OF GUSTY NORTH
WINDS...BUT WITH THE LOW NOW FORECAST TO TRACK FURTHER WEST MOST OF
THOSE STRONG WINDS COULD AFFECT MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW SETS UP. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT
THIS LOW COULD BE SLOW DEPARTING THE AREA SO ITS POSSIBLE WE WILL
HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE EFFECTS OF THIS LOW INTO TUESDAY. AS IT LOOKS
NOW...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS WILL SETTLE INTO THE TYPICAL
DRAINAGE PATTERN...SSW AROUND 10 KNOTS...THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL BRING LOWER CEILINGS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AFTER A QUIET NIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR
SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL REACH THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GORELOW
AVIATION...MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 262155
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
255 PM PDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM....THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST TONIGHT AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST APPROACHES THE
COAST. A CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PUSH INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN PUSH INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA/WESTERN NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD INTO THE SIERRA AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 15 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL GRADUALLY
COVER THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS THE
LOW BECOMES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. LIKE WITH THE SYSTEM
YESTERDAY THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN. SNOW
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 7000 FEET AND POSSIBLY DROP TO AS
LOW AS 6500 FEET DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT QUITE
AS COLD AS THE ONE ON MONDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO RUN ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ON A SIDE NOTE...THE RECORD
LOW MAX TEMPERATURE IN LAS VEGAS ON THURSDAY APRIL 28 IS 55 DEGREES.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE IN JEOPARDY.

WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. ALTHOUGH THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY WERE ON MONDAY ITS STILL POSSIBLE THEY
COULD REACH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. AT THIS TIME ELECTED NOT TO ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE BORDERLINE AND WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT
SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.

A FEW RESIDUAL LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MOHAVE AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME BIG CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED MODELS COMPARED TO
WHAT WE WERE LOOKING AT YESTERDAY. YESTERDAY THE MODELS WERE SHOWING
ANOTHER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NEVADA/UTAH BORDER BRINGING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...THE MODELS NOW SHOW THIS LOW TO DROP IN
MUCH FURTHER WEST BRINGING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY ALONG WITH A RETURN OF
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD ALSO BE AREAS OF GUSTY NORTH
WINDS...BUT WITH THE LOW NOW FORECAST TO TRACK FURTHER WEST MOST OF
THOSE STRONG WINDS COULD AFFECT MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW SETS UP. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT
THIS LOW COULD BE SLOW DEPARTING THE AREA SO ITS POSSIBLE WE WILL
HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE EFFECTS OF THIS LOW INTO TUESDAY. AS IT LOOKS
NOW...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS WILL SETTLE INTO THE TYPICAL
DRAINAGE PATTERN...SSW AROUND 10 KNOTS...THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL BRING LOWER CEILINGS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AFTER A QUIET NIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR
SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL REACH THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GORELOW
AVIATION...MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 262155
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
255 PM PDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM....THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST TONIGHT AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST APPROACHES THE
COAST. A CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PUSH INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN PUSH INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA/WESTERN NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD INTO THE SIERRA AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 15 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL GRADUALLY
COVER THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS THE
LOW BECOMES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. LIKE WITH THE SYSTEM
YESTERDAY THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN. SNOW
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 7000 FEET AND POSSIBLY DROP TO AS
LOW AS 6500 FEET DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT QUITE
AS COLD AS THE ONE ON MONDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO RUN ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ON A SIDE NOTE...THE RECORD
LOW MAX TEMPERATURE IN LAS VEGAS ON THURSDAY APRIL 28 IS 55 DEGREES.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE IN JEOPARDY.

WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. ALTHOUGH THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY WERE ON MONDAY ITS STILL POSSIBLE THEY
COULD REACH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. AT THIS TIME ELECTED NOT TO ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE BORDERLINE AND WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT
SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.

A FEW RESIDUAL LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MOHAVE AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME BIG CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED MODELS COMPARED TO
WHAT WE WERE LOOKING AT YESTERDAY. YESTERDAY THE MODELS WERE SHOWING
ANOTHER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NEVADA/UTAH BORDER BRINGING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...THE MODELS NOW SHOW THIS LOW TO DROP IN
MUCH FURTHER WEST BRINGING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY ALONG WITH A RETURN OF
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD ALSO BE AREAS OF GUSTY NORTH
WINDS...BUT WITH THE LOW NOW FORECAST TO TRACK FURTHER WEST MOST OF
THOSE STRONG WINDS COULD AFFECT MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW SETS UP. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT
THIS LOW COULD BE SLOW DEPARTING THE AREA SO ITS POSSIBLE WE WILL
HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE EFFECTS OF THIS LOW INTO TUESDAY. AS IT LOOKS
NOW...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS WILL SETTLE INTO THE TYPICAL
DRAINAGE PATTERN...SSW AROUND 10 KNOTS...THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL BRING LOWER CEILINGS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AFTER A QUIET NIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR
SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL REACH THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GORELOW
AVIATION...MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





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