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000
FXUS65 KVEF 241019
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
318 AM PDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS
AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN MAINLY THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DEEPENING UPPER LOW WILL DROP TO JUST
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER
RIDGETOPS LIKE THE SIERRA AND SPRING MOUNTAINS WHILE CLOUDS ALSO
START TO INCREASE. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS...CLOUDS...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR NORTH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT ALL AREAS SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION BY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE SIERRA FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING TO AS LOW AS
5000 FEET IN THE WESTERN ZONES AND TO NEAR 6000 FEET IN THE EASTERN
ZONES. THERE COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS BUT SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY TRAVEL AREAS. IN
ADDITION TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS STORM...WIND WILL BE A
CONCERN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL SHOWING
WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE LESS THAN THE LAST STORM BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. I ISSUED AND ADVISORY FOR 11 AM TO 11 PM FRIDAY FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES WHERE WINDS FAILED TO REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA WITH THE LAST STORM. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH/NORTHWEST
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND DECREASE...ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME BREEZY TO WINDY AREAS STILL OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE PRETTY WARM FRIDAY
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BUT WITH THE LOW MOVING ACROSS SATURDAY AND
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL
BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES COLDER IN MOST AREAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL END QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS UTAH AND
INTO COLORADO. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS SATURDAYS STORM SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO OUR EAST RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WARMING AND DRYING BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. 700MB TEMPS
REMAIN COOL ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP CLOSER
TO NORMAL ON MONDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST,
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WINDS MAY
HIT LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY IN THE LAUGHLIN-BULLHEAD
CITY AREA. AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES FURTHER AND ALIGNS SHARPLY WITH THE
PACIFIC COAST...ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MAY DIVE SOUTH AND
CARVE OUT A WEAK AND BAGGY TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO MAINLY DRY BUT COOLER CONDITIONS MIDWEEK
ONWARD...WITH STRONGER NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. LATEST ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE THE GFS
IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER. FOR NOW SIDED WITH A COMPROMISE SOLUTION
WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING OVER 35 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE CLOSE TO OR BELOW 15
PERCENT FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. I WENT WITH A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT WINDS WILL REACH RED FLAG LEVELS BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH WINDS MAINLY 4-8 KTS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIKELY BECOME EAST/SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING WITH
SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS
AFTER ABOUT 23Z AND REMAIN THERE ALL NIGHT. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AOA
20K FEET THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH LOWERING CLOUDS AND A RISK OF SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE BEATTY CORRIDOR.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS IN THE MORNING AND THE AROUND
10-15 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH
LOWERING CEILINGS AND INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO AREAS WEST AND
NORTH OF LAS VEGAS.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

HARRISON/OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER














000
FXUS65 KVEF 240346 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
845 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...GUSTY
WINDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
&&

.UPDATE...EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A BLANKET OF THIN HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH THICKER MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. DID MAKE A FEW CHANGES TO THE CLOUD
GRIDS TO LOWER COVERAGE DUE TO THE FACT THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY THIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE MODELS SHOW LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH REGARDS TO THIS FRIDAYS SYSTEM.
WINDY...SHOWERY...AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 8 KTS STILL
POSSIBLE THROUGH 05Z BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWEST AROUND 7 KTS
OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 8-10 KTS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 20Z THURSDAYS. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET THROUGH
THURSDAY. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH LOWERING CLOUDS AND A RISK OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE
BEATTY CORRIDOR.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS IN THE MORNING AND
THE AROUND 10-15 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY
ALONG WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO AREAS
WEST AND NORTH OF LAS VEGAS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
325 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MAIN STORM IS STILL ON TRACK
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CONCERNS INCLUDE WINDS...RAIN AND
UNSEASONABLY LOW ELEVATION SNOW...AND TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL
REVERSE FROM NORTHERLY TODAY TO PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWESTERLY ON
THURSDAY...THEN INCREASE QUITE A BIT ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS
NEARS THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE OVER THE DESERTS...WITH THE STORM TRACK AND PRECIPITATION
DRAG BOTH WORKING AGAINST A SEVERE DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT IN THE
SIERRA AND OWENS VALLEY. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT COULD NOT JUSTIFY A HIGH WIND WATCH AT THIS
TIME DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET IN ANY
SPECIFIC PLACE. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST ZONES FRIDAY
EVENING AND TREK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...SWITCHING THE
WINDS TO NORTHWESTERLY AND MOST LIKELY ENDING THE HIGH WIND THREAT.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN THE SIERRA AND NEARBY MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN MOJAVE DESERT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN END
FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK MORE ROBUST THAN
WITH THE LAST STORM ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH IS SOMEWHAT DEEPER.
SNOW LEVELS WILL START TO FALL ON FRIDAY AND BOTTOM OUT FRIDAY NIGHT
AROUND 5000 FEET. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HARD TO
COME BY DUE TO THE WARMING GROUND TEMPERATURES...WITH THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATION FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BEING THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHEAST LINCOLN COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SEVERAL DEGREES
TOMORROW FROM THE UNSEASONABLY COOL READINGS OF TODAY...COME BACK
DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY...THEN BOTTOM OUT SATURDAY SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
HAVE MOVED EAST TO THE ROCKIES...WITH FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ITS
WAKE OVER OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM DEPARTED TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND A RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF OF
CALIFORNIA, THE AREA WILL BE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW ENOUGH 700-500 MB LAYER MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY IN THE NORTHERN CWFA THEN. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
CLOSER TO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, DRIER AIR WILL WORK ON IN
AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BECOME MORE DOMINANT. BY WEDNESDAY THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD CLOSER TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER TO BUILD IN THE RIDGE COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL
GFS OR GEM.

FOR TEMPS, EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY...WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL ON
MONDAY AND THEN AT LEAST 4-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY. GIVEN
THE DIFFERENCE IN THE RIDGE CENTER BY THEN AND ON WEDNESDAY, I WENT
WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND WARMER GFS FOR FORECAST
HIGHS. LOW TEMPS WERE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES ALL DAYS.

THE MAIN IMPACT DURING THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE ON MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DROPPING DOWN TO OUR EAST. THIS
SHOULD INCREASE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH WINDS EASILY
APPROACHING LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE
LAUGHLIN-BULLHEAD CITY AREA PER THE LATEST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

GORELOW/MORGAN/STACHELSKI

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER











000
FXUS65 KVEF 232225
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
325 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...GUSTY
WINDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MAIN STORM IS STILL ON TRACK
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CONCERNS INCLUDE WINDS...RAIN AND
UNSEASONABLY LOW ELEVATION SNOW...AND TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL
REVERSE FROM NORTHERLY TODAY TO PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWESTERLY ON
THURSDAY...THEN INCREASE QUITE A BIT ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS
NEARS THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE OVER THE DESERTS...WITH THE STORM TRACK AND PRECIPITATION
DRAG BOTH WORKING AGAINST A SEVERE DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT IN THE
SIERRA AND OWENS VALLEY. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT COULD NOT JUSTIFY A HIGH WIND WATCH AT THIS
TIME DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET IN ANY
SPECIFIC PLACE. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST ZONES FRIDAY
EVENING AND TREK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...SWITCHING THE
WINDS TO NORTHWESTERLY AND MOST LIKELY ENDING THE HIGH WIND THREAT.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN THE SIERRA AND NEARBY MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN MOJAVE DESERT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN END
FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK MORE ROBUST THAN
WITH THE LAST STORM ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH IS SOMEWHAT DEEPER.
SNOW LEVELS WILL START TO FALL ON FRIDAY AND BOTTOM OUT FRIDAY NIGHT
AROUND 5000 FEET. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HARD TO
COME BY DUE TO THE WARMING GROUND TEMPERATURES...WITH THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATION FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BEING THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHEAST LINCOLN COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SEVERAL DEGREES
TOMORROW FROM THE UNSEASONABLY COOL READINGS OF TODAY...COME BACK
DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY...THEN BOTTOM OUT SATURDAY SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
HAVE MOVED EAST TO THE ROCKIES...WITH FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ITS
WAKE OVER OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM DEPARTED TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND A RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF OF
CALIFORNIA, THE AREA WILL BE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW ENOUGH 700-500 MB LAYER MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY IN THE NORTHERN CWFA THEN. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
CLOSER TO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, DRIER AIR WILL WORK ON IN
AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BECOME MORE DOMINANT. BY WEDNESDAY THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD CLOSER TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER TO BUILD IN THE RIDGE COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL
GFS OR GEM.

FOR TEMPS, EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY...WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL ON
MONDAY AND THEN AT LEAST 4-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY. GIVEN
THE DIFFERENCE IN THE RIDGE CENTER BY THEN AND ON WEDNESDAY, I WENT
WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND WARMER GFS FOR FORECAST
HIGHS. LOW TEMPS WERE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES ALL DAYS.

THE MAIN IMPACT DURING THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE ON MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DROPPING DOWN TO OUR EAST. THIS
SHOULD INCREASE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH WINDS EASILY
APPROACHING LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE
LAUGHLIN-BULLHEAD CITY AREA PER THE LATEST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS WILL BE SQUIRRELY THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE SETTLING INTO A DRAINAGE /SOUTHWESTERLY/ WIND THIS EVENING.
THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF EASTERLY WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
LOWERING CLOUDS AND A RISK OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE BEATTY CORRIDOR.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL
SETTLE DOWN AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...THEN A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH LOWERING
CEILINGS AND INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO AREAS WEST AND NORTH OF
LAS VEGAS.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

MORGAN/STACHELSKI

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KVEF 231627
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
927 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHTER WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN
FOR THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS IN EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...NORTH WINDS WERE ACCELERATING DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING. INCREASED FORECAST WIND SPEEDS IN THE LAUGHLIN
BULLHEAD CITY AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
335 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE STRONG WINDS ON TUESDAY IS EXITING TO THE EAST TODAY LEAVING A
MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL SOME HIGH
CLOUDS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FIRST BATCH OF
HIGH CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST THIS MORNING BUT ANOTHER BATCH
WILL COME IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE DIED DOWN
CONSIDERABLY BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LOCALLY BREEZY NORTH
WINDS TODAY...MAINLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BELOW DAVIS DAM
MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL WARM UP BACK TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS TO JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE SIERRA CREST. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE
AREA AND THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A FEW CHANGES AND ADDED
DETAILS FOR THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FORECAST. OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A DEEPER AND MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM FOR THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY PERIOD AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS NO DIFFERENT. BOTH
THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE CROSSING THE WEST COAST AROUND 00Z SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE COAST FRIDAY WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S EVENT. WINDS DO
APPEAR TO TRAVEL A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN TODAY`S SYSTEM BUT THE
MAGNITUDE APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR. ONCE AGAIN HAVE MENTIONED AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST FOR AREAS WITH NEAR-ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SIERRA AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES PRIOR TO 00Z SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE A BIT MORE MUDDLED WITH RH`S HOVERING NEAR CRITICAL
LEVELS.

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SPREAD TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND COULD AFFECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS WE`VE DISCUSSED FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...WITH THE AMOUNT OF DYNAMIC FORCING CURRENTLY PROGGED
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE THAT SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD. AS A RESULT I
HAVE INCREASED POPS WITH THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE...MENTIONING AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE AREAWIDE. BY 12Z SATURDAY THE 500MB LOW CENTER
SHOULD BE MAKING IT`S WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS AND SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY BORDER. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. I`VE ALSO INTRODUCED THE
MENTION OF THUNDER...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF LAS VEGAS AS MODELS
HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF
INSTABILITY. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND SHOULD BE LARGELY
FINISHED BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A FIRST STAB AT STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GIVES A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED
GRADIENT...WITH LESS THAN 0.05 INCH OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...TO
NEAR 0.5 INCH OVER NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF LINCOLN COUNTY. THE SIERRA MAY ALSO PICK UP UPWARDS OF A HALF
INCH NEAR THE CREST. NOTE THAT THESE ARE PRELIMINARY NUMBERS
AND WILL BE REFINED AS WE GET CLOSER. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO AROUND 5500 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING...SO SOME MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SEE SOME FALLING SNOW. SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED DUE TO BOTH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND THE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION WILL BE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST (MAINLY ABOVE
8-9K FEET). AS YOU`D EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO PLUMMET TO 10-14
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY...TRANSLATING TO TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S FOR LAS VEGAS.

FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND...NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM...BUT OTHERWISE MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL ALSO MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND THAT SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
10-15 KTS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z TODAY THEN VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST
5-8 KTS. TYPICAL DRAINAGE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. NO
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MOST AREAS WILL HAVE NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY 5-15 KTS.
SUSTAINED 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FROM ABOUT 16Z TO 21Z TODAY. TYPICAL DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WINDS TONIGHT THEN MAINLY SOUTH WINDS THURSDAY 5-15 KTS.
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20KFT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

MORGAN/HARRISON/WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KVEF 231035
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
335 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHTER WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN
FOR THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS IN EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE STRONG WINDS ON TUESDAY IS EXITING TO THE EAST TODAY LEAVING A
MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL SOME HIGH
CLOUDS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FIRST BATCH OF
HIGH CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST THIS MORNING BUT ANOTHER BATCH
WILL COME IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE DIED DOWN
CONSIDERABLY BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LOCALLY BREEZY NORTH
WINDS TODAY...MAINLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BELOW DAVIS DAM
MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL WARM UP BACK TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS TO JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE SIERRA CREST. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE
AREA AND THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A FEW CHANGES AND ADDED
DETAILS FOR THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FORECAST. OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A DEEPER AND MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM FOR THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY PERIOD AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS NO DIFFERENT. BOTH
THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE CROSSING THE WEST COAST AROUND 00Z SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE COAST FRIDAY WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S EVENT. WINDS DO
APPEAR TO TRAVEL A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN TODAY`S SYSTEM BUT THE
MAGNITUDE APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR. ONCE AGAIN HAVE MENTIONED AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST FOR AREAS WITH NEAR-ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SIERRA AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES PRIOR TO 00Z SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE A BIT MORE MUDDLED WITH RH`S HOVERING NEAR CRITICAL
LEVELS.

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SPREAD TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND COULD AFFECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS WE`VE DISCUSSED FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...WITH THE AMOUNT OF DYNAMIC FORCING CURRENTLY PROGGED
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE THAT SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD. AS A RESULT I
HAVE INCREASED POPS WITH THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE...MENTIONING AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE AREAWIDE. BY 12Z SATURDAY THE 500MB LOW CENTER
SHOULD BE MAKING IT`S WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS AND SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY BORDER. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. I`VE ALSO INTRODUCED THE
MENTION OF THUNDER...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF LAS VEGAS AS MODELS
HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF
INSTABILITY. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND SHOULD BE LARGELY
FINISHED BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A FIRST STAB AT STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GIVES A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED
GRADIENT...WITH LESS THAN 0.05 INCH OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...TO
NEAR 0.5 INCH OVER NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF LINCOLN COUNTY. THE SIERRA MAY ALSO PICK UP UPWARDS OF A HALF
INCH NEAR THE CREST. NOTE THAT THESE ARE PRELIMINARY NUMBERS
AND WILL BE REFINED AS WE GET CLOSER. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO AROUND 5500 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING...SO SOME MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SEE SOME FALLING SNOW. SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED DUE TO BOTH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND THE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION WILL BE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST (MAINLY ABOVE
8-9K FEET). AS YOU`D EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO PLUMMET TO 10-14
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY...TRANSLATING TO TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S FOR LAS VEGAS.

FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND...NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM...BUT OTHERWISE MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL ALSO MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND THAT SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
10-15 KTS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z TODAY THEN VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST
5-8 KTS. TYPICAL DRAINAGE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. NO
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MOST AREAS WILL HAVE NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY 5-15 KTS.
SUSTAINED 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FROM ABOUT 16Z TO 21Z TODAY. TYPICAL DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WINDS TONIGHT THEN MAINLY SOUTH WINDS THURSDAY 5-15 KTS.
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20KFT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

HARRISON/WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER










000
FXUS65 KVEF 230417
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
915 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF WARMUP
THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL USHER IN EVEN COOLER
TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...WIND HEADLINES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AS THE
MAJORITY OF WIND SENSORS AROUND THE REGION WERE INDICATING GUSTS
GENERALLY IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED NORTHWEST
WINDS PUSHING DOWN THROUGH NORTHWEST CLARK COUNTY BETWEEN 03Z AND
04Z...INDICATIVE OF THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA.
UPSTREAM WIND SENSORS INDICATE GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE
TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THESE TRENDS ARE
REFLECTED IN THE GOING GRIDDED FORECAST AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
250 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS HAVE BEEN CRANKING AS
EXPECTED TODAY. SURFACE OBS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST
THE COLD FRONT HAD ALREADY REACHED ESMERALDA COUNTY AS OF 230
PM...AND AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS WILL COME TO AN END. THE BEST
CLOUD ENHANCEMENTS WERE CONFINED TO WHITE PINE AND LANDER COUNTIES
AND AREAS FARTHER NORTH. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN THE PANHANDLE OF LINCOLN COUNTY THIS EVENING...BUT
CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER AS THE PARENT
TROUGH MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST LEAVING DRY AIR IN ITS WAKE. NORTH
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...BUT GENERALLY
LIGHT ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT LITTLE ELSE. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT THE NEXT STORM WILL BE APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST...AND WINDS OVER OUR AREA WILL BE TURNING BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY AREAWIDE
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING SEVERAL DEGREES ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONG AND COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL
PEAK NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMAL BEFORE A SHOT OF
MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON SATURDAY. AS THE WINDS INCREASE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES MAY AGAIN RAISE CONCERNS FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.  WIND
WISE THIS SYSTEM BEARS MANY SIMILARITIES TO THE SYSTEM BRINGING US
WINDY WEATHER TODAY...SO SIMILAR HEADLINES ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY AS
THE EVENT DRAWS NEAR.

THINGS GET ESPECIALLY INTERESTING ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS MODEL CONSENSUS NOW DRAGS A 544DM CLOSED LOW RIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEVADA BY 12Z SATURDAY.  WHILE NOT A PARTICULARLY WET
SYSTEM...IT IS MUCH MORE DYNAMIC THAN WHAT WE ARE OBSERVING TODAY
AND GIVEN THE DEGREE OF ATMOSPHERIC FORCING AND COLD AIR
ALOFT...THERE IS MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
WAVE THAN TODAYS WEATHER MAKER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EVEN ILLUSTRATE
SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER...BUT I
LEFT THAT WORDING OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW.  BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF LAS VEGAS...BUT EVEN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY STANDS A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH SNOW
LEVELS CRASHING TO AS LOW AS 5500 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...SOME HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE SIERRA AND SPRING MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SOME LIGHT
AMOUNTS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
60S IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY...AND REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LUCKILY...IF YOU`RE NOT A
FAN OF THE COOL TEMPS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
STARTING SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER
06Z AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...CAUSING RUNWAY
CONFIGURATION ISSUES. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF EASTERLY WINDS
THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS SHIFT BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND
SETTLE DOWN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL BE OVER LINCOLN COUNTY...WHERE
A STRAY THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY
AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS IN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL TURN BACK AROUND TO SOUTHWESTERLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAIR
PREV DISCUSSION...MORGAN/OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER











000
FXUS65 KVEF 222150
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
250 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN LATE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN MORE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN ON MONDAY. AFTER A
BRIEF WARMUP THURSDAY ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS HAVE BEEN CRANKING AS
EXPECTED TODAY. SURFACE OBS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST
THE COLD FRONT HAD ALREADY REACHED ESMERALDA COUNTY AS OF 230
PM...AND AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS WILL COME TO AN END. THE BEST
CLOUD ENHANCEMENTS WERE CONFINED TO WHITE PINE AND LANDER COUNTIES
AND AREAS FARTHER NORTH. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN THE PANHANDLE OF LINCOLN COUNTY THIS EVENING...BUT
CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER AS THE PARENT
TROUGH MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST LEAVING DRY AIR IN ITS WAKE. NORTH
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...BUT GENERALLY
LIGHT ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT LITTLE ELSE. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT THE NEXT STORM WILL BE APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST...AND WINDS OVER OUR AREA WILL BE TURNING BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY AREAWIDE
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING SEVERAL DEGREES ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONG AND COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL
PEAK NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMAL BEFORE A SHOT OF
MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON SATURDAY. AS THE WINDS INCREASE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES MAY AGAIN RAISE CONCERNS FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.  WIND
WISE THIS SYSTEM BEARS MANY SIMILARITIES TO THE SYSTEM BRINGING US
WINDY WEATHER TODAY...SO SIMILAR HEADLINES ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY AS
THE EVENT DRAWS NEAR.

THINGS GET ESPECIALLY INTERESTING ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS MODEL CONSENSUS NOW DRAGS A 544DM CLOSED LOW RIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEVADA BY 12Z SATURDAY.  WHILE NOT A PARTICULARLY WET
SYSTEM...IT IS MUCH MORE DYNAMIC THAN WHAT WE ARE OBSERVING TODAY
AND GIVEN THE DEGREE OF ATMOSPHERIC FORCING AND COLD AIR
ALOFT...THERE IS MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
WAVE THAN TODAYS WEATHER MAKER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EVEN ILLUSTRATE
SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER...BUT I
LEFT THAT WORDING OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW.  BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF LAS VEGAS...BUT EVEN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY STANDS A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH SNOW
LEVELS CRASHING TO AS LOW AS 5500 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...SOME HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE SIERRA AND SPRING MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SOME LIGHT
AMOUNTS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
60S IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY...AND REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LUCKILY...IF YOU`RE NOT A
FAN OF THE COOL TEMPS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
STARTING SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTHWEST
ARIZONA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS
SHOULD START TO DECREASE. VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN
LATE THIS EVENING AND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...CAUSING RUNWAY CONFIGURATION ISSUES.
THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF EASTERLY WINDS THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS SHIFT
BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NO OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND
SETTLE DOWN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL BE OVER LINCOLN COUNTY...WHERE
A STRAY THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY
AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS IN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL TURN BACK AROUND TO SOUTHWESTERLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NVZ460>466.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NVZ014>022.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ101-102.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ001>003-036.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ229.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ521>527.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ519-520.
&&

$$

MORGAN/OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KVEF 220953
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
253 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
BRINGING STRONG WINDS WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST BUT MINIMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER
THAN WHAT WAS SEEN MONDAY. AFTER A BRIEF WARMUP THURSDAY ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE INCOMING TROUGH. THE TROUGH AXIS WAS
JUST ABOUT TO REACH THE COAST AS OF 230 AM. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WHILE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED WINDS WERE
INCREASING. ONE SITE IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS WAS ALREADY GUSTING
AROUND 40 MPH. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NEVADA TODAY WITH
WIDESPREAD STRONG SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN WINDS AND STILL THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES INTO THE
OWENS VALLEY. THE WIND ADVISORY AND HIGH WIND WARNING STILL LOOK
GOOD. DUE TO OUR DRY SPELL THE STRONG WINDS WILL KICK UP AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND REDUCED VISIBILITY
IS LIKELY AT TIMES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
BASICALLY ONLY THE SIERRA AND FAR NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY. THE TROUGH
WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT LEAVING THE AREA UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST
TO WEST FLOW TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. WINDS WILL BECOME MUCH LIGHTER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BUT THERE WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL
KICK OFF THE LONG TERM FORECAST THURSDAY...WITH SOME BREEZY WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT INCREASED AHEAD OF THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH.

THE TROUGH`S INFLUENCE WILL REALLY BE FELT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
IT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. WIND WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
(GUSTS OVER 40 MPH) EXPECTED. WHILE NOT EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE...THIS
SYSTEM DOES HAVE A WEAK MOISTURE TAP WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH PLENTY
OF DYNAMIC FORCING TO LEAD TO MORE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THAN
TODAY`S SYSTEM. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE
PRECIP FORECAST FROM THE INHERITED GRIDS...MEANING THAT THE MAIN
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE STILL TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR AND THE BEST CHANCES NORTH OF LAS VEGAS. SNOW LEVELS COULD
DROP TO AS LOW AS 6000 FEET BRIEFLY AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD
SATURDAY. THAT SAID...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WITH THE LOW
PASSAGE THERE COULD ALSO BE AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE...BUT
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT. AS THE LOW DEPARTS
LATE SATURDAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN LAS VEGAS SOME 10-12 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PARTS OF THE VALLEY STRUGGLING
TO REACH 70 DEGREES.

FOR SUNDAY I DID HOLD ON TO A FEW GHOST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NORTHERN INYO...ESMERALDA...AND LINCOLN COUNTIES DUE TO A WEAK WAVE
FORECAST TO ROLL DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN TROUGH. THIS WAVE
SHOULDN`T HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES AND
REINFORCING THE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION DURING THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING CALMER AND WARMER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH
TODAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY DIPPING BELOW 10 PERCENT IN MANY
LOCATIONS. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTHWEST ARIZONA...SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA REMAINS
IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM TODAY. VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. &&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE DAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS AT TIMES BEFORE
SUBSIDING A BIT AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AFTER
ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS 12-16 KTS. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST...CAUSING RUNWAY CONFIGURATION
ISSUES. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20 KFT TODAY...CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE TODAY.
GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE LIKELY IN MOST AREAS OF THE MOJAVE
DESERT...WITH GUSTS OVER 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE OWENS VALLEY AND
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
MOJAVE DESERT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT TODAY FOR NVZ460>466.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT TODAY FOR NVZ014>022.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MST TODAY FOR AZZ101-102.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MST TODAY FOR AZZ001>003-036.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT TODAY FOR CAZ229.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT TODAY FOR CAZ521>527.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT TODAY FOR CAZ519-520.
&&

$$

HARRISON/WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER










000
FXUS65 KVEF 220411
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
910 PM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
BRINGING STRONG WINDS WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST BUT MINIMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. A COOL DOWN IS ALSO IN STORE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY. AFTER
A BRIEF WARMUP THURSDAY ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...A BROAD SWATH OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE ELONGATED TROUGH MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST COAST. THE 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOW NO APPRECIABLE
CHANGE IN TRACK AND TIMING FROM RECENT RUNS AND SUPPORT THE FORECAST
TRENDS DETAILED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THE MAIN STORY IS STILL
WIDESPREAD STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGINNING MID TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS TO THE EAST. NO
CHANGES NEEDED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
326 PM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBS SHOWED WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
LEFT THE WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS INTACT...WITH MINOR
RESERVATIONS THAT STRONG WINDS IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY COULD
PERSIST BEYOND 9 PM AND ONE OR TWO OF THE MORE WIND PRONE SITES
COULD TOUCH WARNING CRITERIA. 12Z ARW MODEL SHOWS COLD FRONT
REACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
SWEEPING SOUTH THROUGH THE MOJAVE DESERT BY THE WEE HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE THREAT OF STRONG WINDS WILL END AS THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THE PARENT TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL COME DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES TUESDAY AND SEVERAL MORE
ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH MOST STATIONS 10-20
DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY THAN MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START
TO INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

IN WHAT HAS BEEN ANOTHER VERY DRY MONTH, THERE IS SOME HOPE THAT WE
MAY GET SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
BEFORE APRIL GOES AWAY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE MOISTURE TAP IS NOT SUPER IMPRESSIVE, THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE TROUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF
AND GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLES, I WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS AND
ALSO EXPANDED THERE AREAL COVERED BY AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DOWN TO ROUGHLY I-40. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS AROUND 0.40 INCH
IN LAS VEGAS, WHICH IS NOT IMPRESSIVE, BUT ENOUGH THAT SOME
SPRINKLES OR EVEN VERY LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH SUCH A
DEEP TROUGH. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO FALL TO 7000 FEET OR SO. AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY. ONE
CONCERN IF THE MORE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ARRIVES IS THAT THE PERIOD
OF STRONGER WINDS COULD BE SHORTER. NEVERTHELESS, WITH 700 MB WINDS
SHOWING WIDESPREAD 30-40 KT+ VALUES, SOME SORT OF WIND HEADLINES
COULD VERY WELL BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE EVENING. WINDS WERE THUS INCREASED IN THE GRIDS.

ONCE THE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH ON SATURDAY, DRIER AND COOLER AIR
SHOULD MOVE IN. HOWEVER, ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS INTO
SUNDAY THAT IT SHOULD NOT TRANSITION TO ANYTHING PERFECTLY CLEAR
UNTIL MONDAY WHEN A RIDGE AXIS HEADS IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY, THEN LOWER TO
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WERE LOWERED
SEVERAL DEGREES TOWARD A BLEND OF THE MEX AND ECMWF MOS AND BC CONS
MODELS. AFTERWARDS...READINGS SHOULD START TO REBOUND AND GET BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH
TUESDAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY DIPPING BELOW 10 PERCENT IN MANY
LOCATIONS. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTHWEST ARIZONA...SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA REMAINS
IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM TUESDAY. VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST ALL NIGHT TONIGHT AT THE TERMINAL. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 40 KNOTS AT TIMES BEFORE SUBSIDING AROUND SUNSET. WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST...CAUSING RUNWAY
CONFIGURATION ISSUES. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST ALL NIGHT TONIGHT
AND INCREASE AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY. GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE LIKELY
IN MOST AREAS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT...WITH GUSTS OVER 50 KNOTS
POSSIBLE IN THE OWENS VALLEY AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. MODERATE TO
SEVERE TURBULENCE CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS IN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR NVZ460>466.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR NVZ014>022.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MST TUESDAY FOR AZZ101-102.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MST TUESDAY FOR AZZ001>003-036.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ229.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ521>527.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ519-520.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAIR
PREV DISCUSSION...MORGAN/STACHELSKI

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER











000
FXUS65 KVEF 212226
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
326 PM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
BRINGING STRONG WINDS WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST BUT MINIMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. A COOL DOWN IS ALSO IN STORE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY. AFTER
A BRIEF WARMUP THURSDAY ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBS SHOWED WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
LEFT THE WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS INTACT...WITH MINOR
RESERVATIONS THAT STRONG WINDS IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY COULD
PERSIST BEYOND 9 PM AND ONE OR TWO OF THE MORE WIND PRONE SITES
COULD TOUCH WARNING CRITERIA. 12Z ARW MODEL SHOWS COLD FRONT
REACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
SWEEPING SOUTH THROUGH THE MOJAVE DESERT BY THE WEE HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE THREAT OF STRONG WINDS WILL END AS THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THE PARENT TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL COME DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES TUESDAY AND SEVERAL MORE
ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH MOST STATIONS 10-20
DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY THAN MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START
TO INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

IN WHAT HAS BEEN ANOTHER VERY DRY MONTH, THERE IS SOME HOPE THAT WE
MAY GET SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
BEFORE APRIL GOES AWAY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE MOISTURE TAP IS NOT SUPER IMPRESSIVE, THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE TROUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF
AND GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLES, I WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS AND
ALSO EXPANDED THERE AREAL COVERED BY AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DOWN TO ROUGHLY I-40. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS AROUND 0.40 INCH
IN LAS VEGAS, WHICH IS NOT IMPRESSIVE, BUT ENOUGH THAT SOME
SPRINKLES OR EVEN VERY LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH SUCH A
DEEP TROUGH. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO FALL TO 7000 FEET OR SO. AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY. ONE
CONCERN IF THE MORE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ARRIVES IS THAT THE PERIOD
OF STRONGER WINDS COULD BE SHORTER. NEVERTHELESS, WITH 700 MB WINDS
SHOWING WIDESPREAD 30-40 KT+ VALUES, SOME SORT OF WIND HEADLINES
COULD VERY WELL BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE EVENING. WINDS WERE THUS INCREASED IN THE GRIDS.

ONCE THE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH ON SATURDAY, DRIER AND COOLER AIR
SHOULD MOVE IN. HOWEVER, ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS INTO
SUNDAY THAT IT SHOULD NOT TRANSITION TO ANYTHING PERFECTLY CLEAR
UNTIL MONDAY WHEN A RIDGE AXIS HEADS IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY, THEN LOWER TO
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WERE LOWERED
SEVERAL DEGREES TOWARD A BLEND OF THE MEX AND ECMWF MOS AND BC CONS
MODELS. AFTERWARDS...READINGS SHOULD START TO REBOUND AND GET BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH
TUESDAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY DIPPING BELOW 10 PERCENT IN MANY
LOCATIONS. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTHWEST ARIZONA...SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA REMAINS
IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM TUESDAY. VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST ALL NIGHT TONIGHT AT THE TERMINAL. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS
40 KNOTS AT TIMES BEFORE SUBSIDING AROUND SUNSET. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST...CAUSING RUNWAY CONFIGURATION
ISSUES. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST ALL NIGHT TONIGHT
AND INCREASE AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY. GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE LIKELY
IN MOST AREAS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT...WITH GUSTS OVER 50 KNOTS
POSSIBLE IN THE OWENS VALLEY AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS IN THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR NVZ460>466.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR NVZ014>022.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MST TUESDAY FOR AZZ101-102.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MST TUESDAY FOR AZZ001>003-036.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ229.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ521>527.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ519-520.
&&

$$

MORGAN/STACHELSKI

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








000
FXUS65 KVEF 211522
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
822 AM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY BRINGING STRONG WINDS WITH
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST BUT MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. A COOL DOWN
IS ALSO IN STORE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF WARMUP THURSDAY ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS LATE WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS EXPECTED. WINDS WERE LIGHT THIS MORNING...AND ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TODAY AND MUCH MORE ON TUESDAY. WIND AND
FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS LOOK GOOD...AS DOES THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. NO
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
300 AM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THIS PERIOD. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
TODAY AS A DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH LEADING TO GOOD MIXING OF
THE AIR MASS AND THEREFORE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM A BIT
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOMEWHAT BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE SOMEWHAT IN THE VALLEYS BUT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO NEVADA
TUESDAY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER STRONG AREA WIDE.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES DOWN INTO THE OWENS VALLEY. I
WENT AHEAD WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SIERRA AND OWENS VALLEY
AND WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OTHER ZONES...ALL FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM. THERE
MAY BE SOME TIMING ISSUES BUT I DID NOT WANT TO TRY AND GET FANCY
AND RISK CONFUSION. FOR EXAMPLE...THE STRONGEST DOWNSLOPE WINDS
PROBABLY WILL NOT GET INTO THE OWENS VALLEY UNTIL SOMETIME IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA ALL DAY AND
EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MODEL RUN LOOK EVEN SLIMMER THAN
BEFORE SO WE HAVE MINIMAL AREA IN THE NORTH WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO
UTAH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS DECREASING AND BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL ALSO END BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SOMEWHAT CALMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY`S WIND
SYSTEM. SOME RESIDUAL NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL BEFORE REBOUNDING THURSDAY UNDER A
TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

THE NEXT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. THERE ARE STILL
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF THIS STORM WITH THE GFS
AND GEM FORMING A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE THROUGHOUT.
IT APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE AT LEAST A WEAK MOISTURE TAP
AND THUS WILL HAVE GREATER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THAN TUESDAY`S
STORM...ESPECIALLY IF THE DYNAMICS OF THE LATEST GFS ARE INVOLVED.
FOR NOW HAVE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY NORTH OF AN
OLANCHA-LAS VEGAS-KINGMAN LINE FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
WILL BE INCLUDING AREAS OF BLOWING DUST FRIDAY WITH THIS MORNINGS
PACKAGE BUT WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER AS CURRENT
INSTABILITY PROGS ARE FAIRLY WEAK...ESPECIALLY ON THE ECMWF. THE
WINDY CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RED FLAG
CONDITIONS FRIDAY...THOUGH AT THIS POINT THE RH`S ARE MARGINAL AS
MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT
POTENTIAL.

GENERAL CONSENSUS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD IS IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDING IN BY EARLY THE NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...IT`S STILL TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THAT.

.FIRE WEATHER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE
WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH TUESDAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY DIPPING BELOW
10 PERCENT IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO
A RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM TUESDAY. LATEST MODEL DATA
INDICATES STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND UP TO ESMERALDA COUNTY SO ZONE
460 WAS ADDED TO THE WARNING.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH
TODAY ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND 15-19Z. BY NOON A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL STRENGTHEN WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 KTS AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. WINDS TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 10-12 KTS BUT WILL INCREASE TO 20-30
KTS WITH GUSTS 35-40 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. CLEAR SKIES EARLY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING CIRRUS ABOVE 25 KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS 15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
DECREASE IN WINDS TONIGHT IN THE VALLEY. WINDY ON TUESDAY WITH WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KTS AND GUSTS 35-45 KTS. INCREASING CIRRUS
ABOVE 25 KFT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR NVZ460>466.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR NVZ014>022.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MST TUESDAY FOR AZZ101-102.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MST TUESDAY FOR AZZ001>003-036.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ229.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ521>527.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ519-520.

&&

$$

MORGAN/HARRISON/WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








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