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000
FXUS65 KVEF 112349
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
349 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
LOWER COLORADO VALLEY, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES LATE NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST TODAY, BUT WV
IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL VORT MAXIMA IMPINGING UPON IT IN THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST US. ASIDE
FROM SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS, NO IMPACTS ARE BEING FELT IN OUR AREA AS
TEMPERATURES AGAIN REACH 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. EXPECT
MORE OF THE SAME TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN.
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST 00Z-
06Z SATURDAY WHICH WILL DAMPEN THE RIDGE SUBSTANTIALLY THIS WEEKEND.
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA 00Z-12Z
SUNDAY, BUT THE RIDGE WILL HAVE EFFECTIVELY WEAKENED IT WELL BEFORE
IT REACHES OUR AREA. TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE DRY, AND ONLY MINOR
COOLING WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY (PERHAPS 2-4 DEGREES). NORTH WINDS WILL
KICK UP IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SO FAR, WINDS LOOK BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

RIDGE WILL BUILD RIGHT BACK EARLY NEXT WEEK...QUICKLY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS AND RETAINING DRY CONDITIONS. BREEZY NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A SLOW DECREASING TREND FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY. MCCARRAN SHOULD
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING TEN OR MORE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 70+ DEGREE
HIGHS, AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

AS A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL EAST PACIFIC (A LAST
REMNANT OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND), A STRONG LARGE-
SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH. MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
WEST, THOUGH THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THAN WHAT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED SO FAR. NEVERTHELESS, TIMING/PHASE ERRORS AND RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY PROBLEMS CONTINUE AMONGST THE MODELS. FOR EXAMPLE, 12Z
GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM, KEEPING MOST PRECIP OUT OF
OUR CWA ASIDE FROM THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. 18Z GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER
WITH THE SYSTEM, BRINGING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE AREA (ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-40). 12Z EURO IS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE, THOUGH THE
ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH IS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING
CONSIDERABLE PRECIP TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WHILE ALSO ENHANCING
DOWNSTREAM SHADOWING (KEEPING MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA DRY AS THE
TROUGH PASSES).

WITH THE OVERALL DRIER APPEARANCE TO THE TROUGH IN THE PAST FEW
SIMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...REDUCED
INHERITED POPS A TAD FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING. BEST CHANCES REMAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. TOO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC
REGARDING QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DECENT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. SYSTEM WILL BE WARM, SO
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH, ESPECIALLY EARLY ON IN THE EVENT.
WILL NEED TO SEE MORE CONSENSUS WITH THIS SYSTEM BEFORE GETTING MORE
DETAILED THAN THAT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL PROCESSES
WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN
AOB 6 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...KEED AND KIFP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW BUT SHOULD BE AOB 10 KTS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
THE REMAINING TERMINALS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHAFER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 112349
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
349 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
LOWER COLORADO VALLEY, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES LATE NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST TODAY, BUT WV
IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL VORT MAXIMA IMPINGING UPON IT IN THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST US. ASIDE
FROM SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS, NO IMPACTS ARE BEING FELT IN OUR AREA AS
TEMPERATURES AGAIN REACH 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. EXPECT
MORE OF THE SAME TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN.
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST 00Z-
06Z SATURDAY WHICH WILL DAMPEN THE RIDGE SUBSTANTIALLY THIS WEEKEND.
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA 00Z-12Z
SUNDAY, BUT THE RIDGE WILL HAVE EFFECTIVELY WEAKENED IT WELL BEFORE
IT REACHES OUR AREA. TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE DRY, AND ONLY MINOR
COOLING WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY (PERHAPS 2-4 DEGREES). NORTH WINDS WILL
KICK UP IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SO FAR, WINDS LOOK BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

RIDGE WILL BUILD RIGHT BACK EARLY NEXT WEEK...QUICKLY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS AND RETAINING DRY CONDITIONS. BREEZY NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A SLOW DECREASING TREND FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY. MCCARRAN SHOULD
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING TEN OR MORE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 70+ DEGREE
HIGHS, AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

AS A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL EAST PACIFIC (A LAST
REMNANT OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND), A STRONG LARGE-
SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH. MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
WEST, THOUGH THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THAN WHAT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED SO FAR. NEVERTHELESS, TIMING/PHASE ERRORS AND RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY PROBLEMS CONTINUE AMONGST THE MODELS. FOR EXAMPLE, 12Z
GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM, KEEPING MOST PRECIP OUT OF
OUR CWA ASIDE FROM THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. 18Z GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER
WITH THE SYSTEM, BRINGING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE AREA (ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-40). 12Z EURO IS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE, THOUGH THE
ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH IS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING
CONSIDERABLE PRECIP TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WHILE ALSO ENHANCING
DOWNSTREAM SHADOWING (KEEPING MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA DRY AS THE
TROUGH PASSES).

WITH THE OVERALL DRIER APPEARANCE TO THE TROUGH IN THE PAST FEW
SIMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...REDUCED
INHERITED POPS A TAD FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING. BEST CHANCES REMAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. TOO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC
REGARDING QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DECENT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. SYSTEM WILL BE WARM, SO
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH, ESPECIALLY EARLY ON IN THE EVENT.
WILL NEED TO SEE MORE CONSENSUS WITH THIS SYSTEM BEFORE GETTING MORE
DETAILED THAN THAT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL PROCESSES
WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN
AOB 6 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...KEED AND KIFP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW BUT SHOULD BE AOB 10 KTS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
THE REMAINING TERMINALS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHAFER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 112349
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
349 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
LOWER COLORADO VALLEY, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES LATE NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST TODAY, BUT WV
IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL VORT MAXIMA IMPINGING UPON IT IN THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST US. ASIDE
FROM SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS, NO IMPACTS ARE BEING FELT IN OUR AREA AS
TEMPERATURES AGAIN REACH 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. EXPECT
MORE OF THE SAME TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN.
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST 00Z-
06Z SATURDAY WHICH WILL DAMPEN THE RIDGE SUBSTANTIALLY THIS WEEKEND.
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA 00Z-12Z
SUNDAY, BUT THE RIDGE WILL HAVE EFFECTIVELY WEAKENED IT WELL BEFORE
IT REACHES OUR AREA. TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE DRY, AND ONLY MINOR
COOLING WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY (PERHAPS 2-4 DEGREES). NORTH WINDS WILL
KICK UP IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SO FAR, WINDS LOOK BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

RIDGE WILL BUILD RIGHT BACK EARLY NEXT WEEK...QUICKLY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS AND RETAINING DRY CONDITIONS. BREEZY NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A SLOW DECREASING TREND FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY. MCCARRAN SHOULD
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING TEN OR MORE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 70+ DEGREE
HIGHS, AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

AS A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL EAST PACIFIC (A LAST
REMNANT OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND), A STRONG LARGE-
SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH. MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
WEST, THOUGH THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THAN WHAT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED SO FAR. NEVERTHELESS, TIMING/PHASE ERRORS AND RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY PROBLEMS CONTINUE AMONGST THE MODELS. FOR EXAMPLE, 12Z
GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM, KEEPING MOST PRECIP OUT OF
OUR CWA ASIDE FROM THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. 18Z GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER
WITH THE SYSTEM, BRINGING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE AREA (ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-40). 12Z EURO IS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE, THOUGH THE
ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH IS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING
CONSIDERABLE PRECIP TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WHILE ALSO ENHANCING
DOWNSTREAM SHADOWING (KEEPING MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA DRY AS THE
TROUGH PASSES).

WITH THE OVERALL DRIER APPEARANCE TO THE TROUGH IN THE PAST FEW
SIMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...REDUCED
INHERITED POPS A TAD FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING. BEST CHANCES REMAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. TOO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC
REGARDING QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DECENT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. SYSTEM WILL BE WARM, SO
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH, ESPECIALLY EARLY ON IN THE EVENT.
WILL NEED TO SEE MORE CONSENSUS WITH THIS SYSTEM BEFORE GETTING MORE
DETAILED THAN THAT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL PROCESSES
WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN
AOB 6 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...KEED AND KIFP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW BUT SHOULD BE AOB 10 KTS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
THE REMAINING TERMINALS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHAFER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 111753
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
953 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SPRING LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES AND
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR
LAUGHLIN AND BULLHEAD CITY.
&&

.UPDATE...

ANOTHER FINE WEATHER DAY IS TAKING SHAPE IN OUR AREA. FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
215 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE OVERALL WEATHER EXCEPT FOR A RETURN OF BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN IN ITS WAKE. A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTH WIND GUSTS WILL
RETURN, PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. LESS AMPLIFIED  RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT STAYING MORE PROGRESSIVE.
RIDGE MIGRATES INLAND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN
THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH. ABOUT HALF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUPPORT THE FASTER GFS, WHILE ABOUT HALF THE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE
SLOWER ECMWF. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO WEDNESDAY
LEAVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES, AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE AS FAR EAST AS LIDA SUMMIT IN ESMERALDA COUNTY. THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE
DESERT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY.

THE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN LAS VEGAS STAYING
ABOVE 70 DEGREES ALL 7 DAYS. THAT WOULD MEAN 11 STRAIGHT DAYS NEXT
WEDNESDAY. THE CONSECUTIVE DAYS RECORD WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
70 DEGREES IS 13 DAYS JUST SET LAST FEBRUARY 2015 AND ALSO IN 1996.
IN THE END WE MAY JUST FALL SHORT OF THE RECORD DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 6 KTS
FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THIS WEEK. NO OTHER OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 6 KTS FAVORING TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS THIS WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME ENHANCED
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. NO OTHER OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE................SHAFER
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM.............PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 111753
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
953 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SPRING LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES AND
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR
LAUGHLIN AND BULLHEAD CITY.
&&

.UPDATE...

ANOTHER FINE WEATHER DAY IS TAKING SHAPE IN OUR AREA. FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
215 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE OVERALL WEATHER EXCEPT FOR A RETURN OF BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN IN ITS WAKE. A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTH WIND GUSTS WILL
RETURN, PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. LESS AMPLIFIED  RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT STAYING MORE PROGRESSIVE.
RIDGE MIGRATES INLAND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN
THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH. ABOUT HALF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUPPORT THE FASTER GFS, WHILE ABOUT HALF THE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE
SLOWER ECMWF. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO WEDNESDAY
LEAVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES, AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE AS FAR EAST AS LIDA SUMMIT IN ESMERALDA COUNTY. THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE
DESERT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY.

THE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN LAS VEGAS STAYING
ABOVE 70 DEGREES ALL 7 DAYS. THAT WOULD MEAN 11 STRAIGHT DAYS NEXT
WEDNESDAY. THE CONSECUTIVE DAYS RECORD WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
70 DEGREES IS 13 DAYS JUST SET LAST FEBRUARY 2015 AND ALSO IN 1996.
IN THE END WE MAY JUST FALL SHORT OF THE RECORD DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 6 KTS
FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THIS WEEK. NO OTHER OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 6 KTS FAVORING TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS THIS WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME ENHANCED
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. NO OTHER OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE................SHAFER
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM.............PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 111753
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
953 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SPRING LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES AND
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR
LAUGHLIN AND BULLHEAD CITY.
&&

.UPDATE...

ANOTHER FINE WEATHER DAY IS TAKING SHAPE IN OUR AREA. FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
215 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE OVERALL WEATHER EXCEPT FOR A RETURN OF BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN IN ITS WAKE. A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTH WIND GUSTS WILL
RETURN, PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. LESS AMPLIFIED  RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT STAYING MORE PROGRESSIVE.
RIDGE MIGRATES INLAND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN
THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH. ABOUT HALF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUPPORT THE FASTER GFS, WHILE ABOUT HALF THE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE
SLOWER ECMWF. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO WEDNESDAY
LEAVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES, AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE AS FAR EAST AS LIDA SUMMIT IN ESMERALDA COUNTY. THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE
DESERT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY.

THE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN LAS VEGAS STAYING
ABOVE 70 DEGREES ALL 7 DAYS. THAT WOULD MEAN 11 STRAIGHT DAYS NEXT
WEDNESDAY. THE CONSECUTIVE DAYS RECORD WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
70 DEGREES IS 13 DAYS JUST SET LAST FEBRUARY 2015 AND ALSO IN 1996.
IN THE END WE MAY JUST FALL SHORT OF THE RECORD DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 6 KTS
FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THIS WEEK. NO OTHER OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 6 KTS FAVORING TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS THIS WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME ENHANCED
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. NO OTHER OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE................SHAFER
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM.............PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 111017
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
215 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SPRING LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES AND
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR
LAUGHLIN AND BULLHEAD CITY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE OVERALL WEATHER EXCEPT FOR A RETURN OF BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN IN ITS WAKE. A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTH WIND GUSTS WILL
RETURN, PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. LESS AMPLIFIED  RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT STAYING MORE PROGRESSIVE.
RIDGE MIGRATES INLAND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN
THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH. ABOUT HALF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUPPORT THE FASTER GFS, WHILE ABOUT HALF THE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE
SLOWER ECMWF. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO WEDNESDAY
LEAVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES, AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE AS FAR EAST AS LIDA SUMMIT IN ESMERALDA COUNTY. THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE
DESERT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY.

THE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN LAS VEGAS STAYING
ABOVE 70 DEGREES ALL 7 DAYS. THAT WOULD MEAN 11 STRAIGHT DAYS NEXT
WEDNESDAY. THE CONSECUTIVE DAYS RECORD WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
70 DEGREES IS 13 DAYS JUST SET LAST FEBRUARY 2015 AND ALSO IN 1996.
IN THE END WE MAY JUST FALL SHORT OF THE RECORD DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 6 KTS
FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THIS WEEK. NO OTHER OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 6 KTS FAVORING TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS THIS WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME ENHANCED
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. NO OTHER OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM.............PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 111017
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
215 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SPRING LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES AND
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR
LAUGHLIN AND BULLHEAD CITY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE OVERALL WEATHER EXCEPT FOR A RETURN OF BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN IN ITS WAKE. A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTH WIND GUSTS WILL
RETURN, PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. LESS AMPLIFIED  RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT STAYING MORE PROGRESSIVE.
RIDGE MIGRATES INLAND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN
THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH. ABOUT HALF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUPPORT THE FASTER GFS, WHILE ABOUT HALF THE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE
SLOWER ECMWF. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO WEDNESDAY
LEAVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES, AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE AS FAR EAST AS LIDA SUMMIT IN ESMERALDA COUNTY. THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE
DESERT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY.

THE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN LAS VEGAS STAYING
ABOVE 70 DEGREES ALL 7 DAYS. THAT WOULD MEAN 11 STRAIGHT DAYS NEXT
WEDNESDAY. THE CONSECUTIVE DAYS RECORD WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
70 DEGREES IS 13 DAYS JUST SET LAST FEBRUARY 2015 AND ALSO IN 1996.
IN THE END WE MAY JUST FALL SHORT OF THE RECORD DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 6 KTS
FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THIS WEEK. NO OTHER OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 6 KTS FAVORING TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS THIS WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME ENHANCED
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. NO OTHER OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM.............PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 111017
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
215 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SPRING LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES AND
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR
LAUGHLIN AND BULLHEAD CITY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE OVERALL WEATHER EXCEPT FOR A RETURN OF BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN IN ITS WAKE. A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTH WIND GUSTS WILL
RETURN, PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. LESS AMPLIFIED  RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT STAYING MORE PROGRESSIVE.
RIDGE MIGRATES INLAND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN
THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH. ABOUT HALF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUPPORT THE FASTER GFS, WHILE ABOUT HALF THE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE
SLOWER ECMWF. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO WEDNESDAY
LEAVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES, AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE AS FAR EAST AS LIDA SUMMIT IN ESMERALDA COUNTY. THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE
DESERT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY.

THE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN LAS VEGAS STAYING
ABOVE 70 DEGREES ALL 7 DAYS. THAT WOULD MEAN 11 STRAIGHT DAYS NEXT
WEDNESDAY. THE CONSECUTIVE DAYS RECORD WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
70 DEGREES IS 13 DAYS JUST SET LAST FEBRUARY 2015 AND ALSO IN 1996.
IN THE END WE MAY JUST FALL SHORT OF THE RECORD DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 6 KTS
FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THIS WEEK. NO OTHER OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 6 KTS FAVORING TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS THIS WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME ENHANCED
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. NO OTHER OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM.............PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 102156
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
156 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SPRING LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES
AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER
NEAR LAUGHLIN AND BULLHEAD CITY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY.

VERY QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN SNOW-FREE AREAS. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG-DURATION AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST WEAKENS THIS WEEKEND WITH
AN ONSLAUGHT OF VORTICITY MAXIMA PROGRESSING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE TRENDING FASTER AND WEAKER WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH REACHING THE COAST 00Z-12Z SATURDAY WITH THE GFS A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE ECMWF. THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH CORRESPONDS TO
A SOMEWHAT WEAKER DEPICTION OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE, UNDOUBTEDLY
OWING TO A RATHER POTENT PREDECESSOR NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE RIDGE LATE THIS WEEK WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA.
MAIN EFFECT THIS HAS ON THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS THE DEGREE OF
COOLING EXPECTED AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM PORTION OF THE VORT MAX
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERAL IMPRESSION IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LOOKS A TAD WEAKER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY, AND WITH THE
SLIGHTLY WEAKER LOOKING RIDGE ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO HOW IT WAS
DEPICTED 24 HOURS AGO...THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS
COOLING FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO.
NEVERTHELESS, THESE CHANGES ARE QUITE MINOR (A MATTER OF A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER ON SATURDAY AND A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON SUNDAY). TROUGH
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY REGIONWIDE WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS
AFTER TROUGH PASSAGE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. LONGWAVE RIDGING RECOMMENCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A LOW CUTTING OFF IN THE SUBTROPICAL
EASTERN PACIFIC AS THE WEEKEND SYSTEM PROGRESSES THROUGH THE WEST.
WHAT EXACTLY HAPPENS TO THIS LOW IS ANYONE`S GUESS, AS MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING MIGHTILY WITH HOW THIS LOW INTERACTS WITH AN UPSTREAM
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE EAST PACIFIC INTO THE
WEST COAST NEXT WEEK. 00Z ECMWF SHOWS REASONABLE
PHASING/AMPLIFICATION WITH THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE WEST
MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT ALSO SHOWS A RATHER DRY DEPICTION OF THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH. MEANWHILE...00Z GFS LOOKS WETTER BUT
ACTUALLY CLOSES OFF A SECONDARY LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THAT
PROGRESSES THROUGH OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK, CREATING A SECOND
PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP FOR THE SOUTHWEST. 00Z CMC LOOKS AT
LEAST REASONABLY SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF, AND THE 06Z DGEX LOOKS
REMINISCENT OF THE 00Z GFS. 18Z DGEX HAD THE EAST PACIFIC LOW MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY (SOMETHING HINTED AT BY THE MODEL
24 HOURS BEFORE) BUT HAS ESSENTIALLY ZERO SUPPORT FROM ANY OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTION. VERY BRIEF LOOK AT 06Z GFS SHOWS A
MUCH DIFFERENT DEPICTION OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH`S PASSAGE THROUGH THE
WEST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (MUCH SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH) WITH A
SUBSEQUENT CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING MUCH FARTHER NORTHWEST THAN ITS 00Z
COUNTERPART SUGGESTS. HOWEVER, IT DOES PROGRESS THIS CUTOFF INTO THE
SOUTHWEST THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

SUCH LARGE SPREAD FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND SUCH LARGE CHANGES IN
CONTINUITY FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN, QUITE COMMON WITH CUTOFF
LOWS PROGRESSING INTO LONGWAVE RIDGES, LEAD TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK. THROUGH TUESDAY, IT APPEARS WARM AND DRY
WEATHER WILL HOLD (FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE), BUT AFTER THAT IS NOT AT
ALL CLEAR. PLENTY OF TIME TO FIGURE THINGS OUT, THOUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 6 KTS
FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THIS WEEK. NO OTHER OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 6 KTS FAVORING TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS THIS WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME ENHANCED
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. NO OTHER OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............SHAFER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 101609
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
810 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SPRING LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES
AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER
NEAR LAUGHLIN AND BULLHEAD CITY.
&&

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. ANOTHER
MILD AND SPIRNG-LIKE FEBRUARY DAY IS IN STORE. THIS MORNINGS
SOUNDING FROM LAS VEGAS INDICATED A FAIRLY SIMILAR PROFILE TO
YESTERDAY WITH EVER SO SUBTLE WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE RECORD
HIGH THIS AFTERNOON IN LAS VEGAS IS 74F DEGREES SET IN 2014...AND
THIS AFTERNOON IS LIKELY TO TIE THAT IF NOT BREAK IT.

-OUTLER-

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EVER-SO-SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS CROSSING THE AREA AT TIMES WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER,
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAS
VEGAS AND DEATH VALLEY WHERE HIGHS OF 74 AND 84 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY
ARE FORECAST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BOTH AREAS SHIFT SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER AFTER TODAY AND RECORDS WILL LIKELY BE SAFE.

BY FRIDAY, THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT PAST SEVERAL DAYS FINALLY ERODES AND A
STRONGER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IS ABLE TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST AT A
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT ORIENTATION NUDGE THE RIDGE TO THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY AND FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WEST. OVERALL, IT
WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER IN OUR AREA AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10-12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE FOR
THE FOLKS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRONG NORTH WINDS
OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER,
LOCALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LAUGHLIN/BULLHEAD CITY
AREA BUT EVEN THERE, GUSTS WILL BE LESS INTENSE AND RELIEF WILL
ARRIVE BY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG-DURATION AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST WEAKENS THIS WEEKEND WITH
AN ONSLAUGHT OF VORTICITY MAXIMA PROGRESSING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE TRENDING FASTER AND WEAKER WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH REACHING THE COAST 00Z-12Z SATURDAY WITH THE GFS A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE ECMWF. THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH CORRESPONDS TO
A SOMEWHAT WEAKER DEPICTION OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE, UNDOUBTEDLY
OWING TO A RATHER POTENT PREDECESSOR NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE RIDGE LATE THIS WEEK WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA.
MAIN EFFECT THIS HAS ON THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS THE DEGREE OF
COOLING EXPECTED AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM PORTION OF THE VORT MAX
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERAL IMPRESSION IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LOOKS A TAD WEAKER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY, AND WITH THE
SLIGHTLY WEAKER LOOKING RIDGE ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO HOW IT WAS
DEPICTED 24 HOURS AGO...THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS
COOLING FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO.
NEVERTHELESS, THESE CHANGES ARE QUITE MINOR (A MATTER OF A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER ON SATURDAY AND A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON SUNDAY). TROUGH
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY REGIONWIDE WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS
AFTER TROUGH PASSAGE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. LONGWAVE RIDGING RECOMMENCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A LOW CUTTING OFF IN THE SUBTROPICAL
EASTERN PACIFIC AS THE WEEKEND SYSTEM PROGRESSES THROUGH THE WEST.
WHAT EXACTLY HAPPENS TO THIS LOW IS ANYONE`S GUESS, AS MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING MIGHTILY WITH HOW THIS LOW INTERACTS WITH AN UPSTREAM
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE EAST PACIFIC INTO THE
WEST COAST NEXT WEEK. 00Z ECMWF SHOWS REASONABLE
PHASING/AMPLIFICATION WITH THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE WEST
MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT ALSO SHOWS A RATHER DRY DEPICTION OF THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH. MEANWHILE...00Z GFS LOOKS WETTER BUT
ACTUALLY CLOSES OFF A SECONDARY LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THAT
PROGRESSES THROUGH OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK, CREATING A SECOND
PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP FOR THE SOUTHWEST. 00Z CMC LOOKS AT
LEAST REASONABLY SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF, AND THE 06Z DGEX LOOKS
REMINISCENT OF THE 00Z GFS. 18Z DGEX HAD THE EAST PACIFIC LOW MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY (SOMETHING HINTED AT BY THE MODEL
24 HOURS BEFORE) BUT HAS ESSENTIALLY ZERO SUPPORT FROM ANY OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTION. VERY BRIEF LOOK AT 06Z GFS SHOWS A
MUCH DIFFERENT DEPICTION OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH`S PASSAGE THROUGH THE
WEST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (MUCH SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH) WITH A
SUBSEQUENT CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING MUCH FARTHER NORTHWEST THAN ITS 00Z
COUNTERPART SUGGESTS. HOWEVER, IT DOES PROGRESS THIS CUTOFF INTO THE
SOUTHWEST THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

SUCH LARGE SPREAD FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND SUCH LARGE CHANGES IN
CONTINUITY FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN, QUITE COMMON WITH CUTOFF
LOWS PROGRESSING INTO LONGWAVE RIDGES, LEAD TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK. THROUGH TUESDAY, IT APPEARS WARM AND DRY
WEATHER WILL HOLD (FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE), BUT AFTER THAT IS NOT AT
ALL CLEAR. PLENTY OF TIME TO FIGURE THINGS OUT, THOUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
THIN CIRRUS AND VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 KNOTS. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...TRANQUIL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND ONLY SOME THIN CIRRUS TODAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING NORTH BREEZES GUSTING AROUND 20-25
KNOTS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY NEAR KIFP TODAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SALMEN
LONG TERM...SHAFER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 101609
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
810 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SPRING LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES
AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER
NEAR LAUGHLIN AND BULLHEAD CITY.
&&

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. ANOTHER
MILD AND SPIRNG-LIKE FEBRUARY DAY IS IN STORE. THIS MORNINGS
SOUNDING FROM LAS VEGAS INDICATED A FAIRLY SIMILAR PROFILE TO
YESTERDAY WITH EVER SO SUBTLE WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE RECORD
HIGH THIS AFTERNOON IN LAS VEGAS IS 74F DEGREES SET IN 2014...AND
THIS AFTERNOON IS LIKELY TO TIE THAT IF NOT BREAK IT.

-OUTLER-

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EVER-SO-SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS CROSSING THE AREA AT TIMES WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER,
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAS
VEGAS AND DEATH VALLEY WHERE HIGHS OF 74 AND 84 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY
ARE FORECAST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BOTH AREAS SHIFT SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER AFTER TODAY AND RECORDS WILL LIKELY BE SAFE.

BY FRIDAY, THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT PAST SEVERAL DAYS FINALLY ERODES AND A
STRONGER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IS ABLE TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST AT A
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT ORIENTATION NUDGE THE RIDGE TO THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY AND FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WEST. OVERALL, IT
WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER IN OUR AREA AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10-12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE FOR
THE FOLKS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRONG NORTH WINDS
OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER,
LOCALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LAUGHLIN/BULLHEAD CITY
AREA BUT EVEN THERE, GUSTS WILL BE LESS INTENSE AND RELIEF WILL
ARRIVE BY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG-DURATION AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST WEAKENS THIS WEEKEND WITH
AN ONSLAUGHT OF VORTICITY MAXIMA PROGRESSING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE TRENDING FASTER AND WEAKER WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH REACHING THE COAST 00Z-12Z SATURDAY WITH THE GFS A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE ECMWF. THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH CORRESPONDS TO
A SOMEWHAT WEAKER DEPICTION OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE, UNDOUBTEDLY
OWING TO A RATHER POTENT PREDECESSOR NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE RIDGE LATE THIS WEEK WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA.
MAIN EFFECT THIS HAS ON THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS THE DEGREE OF
COOLING EXPECTED AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM PORTION OF THE VORT MAX
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERAL IMPRESSION IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LOOKS A TAD WEAKER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY, AND WITH THE
SLIGHTLY WEAKER LOOKING RIDGE ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO HOW IT WAS
DEPICTED 24 HOURS AGO...THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS
COOLING FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO.
NEVERTHELESS, THESE CHANGES ARE QUITE MINOR (A MATTER OF A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER ON SATURDAY AND A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON SUNDAY). TROUGH
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY REGIONWIDE WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS
AFTER TROUGH PASSAGE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. LONGWAVE RIDGING RECOMMENCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A LOW CUTTING OFF IN THE SUBTROPICAL
EASTERN PACIFIC AS THE WEEKEND SYSTEM PROGRESSES THROUGH THE WEST.
WHAT EXACTLY HAPPENS TO THIS LOW IS ANYONE`S GUESS, AS MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING MIGHTILY WITH HOW THIS LOW INTERACTS WITH AN UPSTREAM
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE EAST PACIFIC INTO THE
WEST COAST NEXT WEEK. 00Z ECMWF SHOWS REASONABLE
PHASING/AMPLIFICATION WITH THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE WEST
MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT ALSO SHOWS A RATHER DRY DEPICTION OF THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH. MEANWHILE...00Z GFS LOOKS WETTER BUT
ACTUALLY CLOSES OFF A SECONDARY LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THAT
PROGRESSES THROUGH OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK, CREATING A SECOND
PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP FOR THE SOUTHWEST. 00Z CMC LOOKS AT
LEAST REASONABLY SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF, AND THE 06Z DGEX LOOKS
REMINISCENT OF THE 00Z GFS. 18Z DGEX HAD THE EAST PACIFIC LOW MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY (SOMETHING HINTED AT BY THE MODEL
24 HOURS BEFORE) BUT HAS ESSENTIALLY ZERO SUPPORT FROM ANY OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTION. VERY BRIEF LOOK AT 06Z GFS SHOWS A
MUCH DIFFERENT DEPICTION OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH`S PASSAGE THROUGH THE
WEST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (MUCH SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH) WITH A
SUBSEQUENT CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING MUCH FARTHER NORTHWEST THAN ITS 00Z
COUNTERPART SUGGESTS. HOWEVER, IT DOES PROGRESS THIS CUTOFF INTO THE
SOUTHWEST THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

SUCH LARGE SPREAD FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND SUCH LARGE CHANGES IN
CONTINUITY FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN, QUITE COMMON WITH CUTOFF
LOWS PROGRESSING INTO LONGWAVE RIDGES, LEAD TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK. THROUGH TUESDAY, IT APPEARS WARM AND DRY
WEATHER WILL HOLD (FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE), BUT AFTER THAT IS NOT AT
ALL CLEAR. PLENTY OF TIME TO FIGURE THINGS OUT, THOUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
THIN CIRRUS AND VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 KNOTS. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...TRANQUIL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND ONLY SOME THIN CIRRUS TODAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING NORTH BREEZES GUSTING AROUND 20-25
KNOTS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY NEAR KIFP TODAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SALMEN
LONG TERM...SHAFER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 101609
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
810 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SPRING LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES
AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER
NEAR LAUGHLIN AND BULLHEAD CITY.
&&

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. ANOTHER
MILD AND SPIRNG-LIKE FEBRUARY DAY IS IN STORE. THIS MORNINGS
SOUNDING FROM LAS VEGAS INDICATED A FAIRLY SIMILAR PROFILE TO
YESTERDAY WITH EVER SO SUBTLE WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE RECORD
HIGH THIS AFTERNOON IN LAS VEGAS IS 74F DEGREES SET IN 2014...AND
THIS AFTERNOON IS LIKELY TO TIE THAT IF NOT BREAK IT.

-OUTLER-

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EVER-SO-SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS CROSSING THE AREA AT TIMES WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER,
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAS
VEGAS AND DEATH VALLEY WHERE HIGHS OF 74 AND 84 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY
ARE FORECAST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BOTH AREAS SHIFT SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER AFTER TODAY AND RECORDS WILL LIKELY BE SAFE.

BY FRIDAY, THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT PAST SEVERAL DAYS FINALLY ERODES AND A
STRONGER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IS ABLE TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST AT A
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT ORIENTATION NUDGE THE RIDGE TO THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY AND FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WEST. OVERALL, IT
WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER IN OUR AREA AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10-12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE FOR
THE FOLKS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRONG NORTH WINDS
OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER,
LOCALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LAUGHLIN/BULLHEAD CITY
AREA BUT EVEN THERE, GUSTS WILL BE LESS INTENSE AND RELIEF WILL
ARRIVE BY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG-DURATION AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST WEAKENS THIS WEEKEND WITH
AN ONSLAUGHT OF VORTICITY MAXIMA PROGRESSING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE TRENDING FASTER AND WEAKER WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH REACHING THE COAST 00Z-12Z SATURDAY WITH THE GFS A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE ECMWF. THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH CORRESPONDS TO
A SOMEWHAT WEAKER DEPICTION OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE, UNDOUBTEDLY
OWING TO A RATHER POTENT PREDECESSOR NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE RIDGE LATE THIS WEEK WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA.
MAIN EFFECT THIS HAS ON THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS THE DEGREE OF
COOLING EXPECTED AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM PORTION OF THE VORT MAX
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERAL IMPRESSION IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LOOKS A TAD WEAKER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY, AND WITH THE
SLIGHTLY WEAKER LOOKING RIDGE ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO HOW IT WAS
DEPICTED 24 HOURS AGO...THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS
COOLING FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO.
NEVERTHELESS, THESE CHANGES ARE QUITE MINOR (A MATTER OF A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER ON SATURDAY AND A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON SUNDAY). TROUGH
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY REGIONWIDE WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS
AFTER TROUGH PASSAGE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. LONGWAVE RIDGING RECOMMENCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A LOW CUTTING OFF IN THE SUBTROPICAL
EASTERN PACIFIC AS THE WEEKEND SYSTEM PROGRESSES THROUGH THE WEST.
WHAT EXACTLY HAPPENS TO THIS LOW IS ANYONE`S GUESS, AS MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING MIGHTILY WITH HOW THIS LOW INTERACTS WITH AN UPSTREAM
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE EAST PACIFIC INTO THE
WEST COAST NEXT WEEK. 00Z ECMWF SHOWS REASONABLE
PHASING/AMPLIFICATION WITH THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE WEST
MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT ALSO SHOWS A RATHER DRY DEPICTION OF THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH. MEANWHILE...00Z GFS LOOKS WETTER BUT
ACTUALLY CLOSES OFF A SECONDARY LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THAT
PROGRESSES THROUGH OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK, CREATING A SECOND
PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP FOR THE SOUTHWEST. 00Z CMC LOOKS AT
LEAST REASONABLY SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF, AND THE 06Z DGEX LOOKS
REMINISCENT OF THE 00Z GFS. 18Z DGEX HAD THE EAST PACIFIC LOW MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY (SOMETHING HINTED AT BY THE MODEL
24 HOURS BEFORE) BUT HAS ESSENTIALLY ZERO SUPPORT FROM ANY OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTION. VERY BRIEF LOOK AT 06Z GFS SHOWS A
MUCH DIFFERENT DEPICTION OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH`S PASSAGE THROUGH THE
WEST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (MUCH SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH) WITH A
SUBSEQUENT CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING MUCH FARTHER NORTHWEST THAN ITS 00Z
COUNTERPART SUGGESTS. HOWEVER, IT DOES PROGRESS THIS CUTOFF INTO THE
SOUTHWEST THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

SUCH LARGE SPREAD FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND SUCH LARGE CHANGES IN
CONTINUITY FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN, QUITE COMMON WITH CUTOFF
LOWS PROGRESSING INTO LONGWAVE RIDGES, LEAD TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK. THROUGH TUESDAY, IT APPEARS WARM AND DRY
WEATHER WILL HOLD (FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE), BUT AFTER THAT IS NOT AT
ALL CLEAR. PLENTY OF TIME TO FIGURE THINGS OUT, THOUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
THIN CIRRUS AND VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 KNOTS. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...TRANQUIL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND ONLY SOME THIN CIRRUS TODAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING NORTH BREEZES GUSTING AROUND 20-25
KNOTS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY NEAR KIFP TODAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SALMEN
LONG TERM...SHAFER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 101046
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
246 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SPRING LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES
AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER
NEAR LAUGHLIN AND BULLHEAD CITY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EVER-SO-SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS CROSSING THE AREA AT TIMES WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER,
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAS
VEGAS AND DEATH VALLEY WHERE HIGHS OF 74 AND 84 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY
ARE FORECAST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BOTH AREAS SHIFT SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER AFTER TODAY AND RECORDS WILL LIKELY BE SAFE.

BY FRIDAY, THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT PAST SEVERAL DAYS FINALLY ERODES AND A
STRONGER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IS ABLE TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST AT A
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT ORIENTATION NUDGE THE RIDGE TO THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY AND FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WEST. OVERALL, IT
WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER IN OUR AREA AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10-12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE FOR
THE FOLKS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRONG NORTH WINDS
OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER,
LOCALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LAUGHLIN/BULLHEAD CITY
AREA BUT EVEN THERE, GUSTS WILL BE LESS INTENSE AND RELIEF WILL
ARRIVE BY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG-DURATION AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST WEAKENS THIS WEEKEND WITH
AN ONSLAUGHT OF VORTICITY MAXIMA PROGRESSING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE TRENDING FASTER AND WEAKER WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH REACHING THE COAST 00Z-12Z SATURDAY WITH THE GFS A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE ECMWF. THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH CORRESPONDS TO
A SOMEWHAT WEAKER DEPICTION OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE, UNDOUBTEDLY
OWING TO A RATHER POTENT PREDECESSOR NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE RIDGE LATE THIS WEEK WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA.
MAIN EFFECT THIS HAS ON THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS THE DEGREE OF
COOLING EXPECTED AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM PORTION OF THE VORT MAX
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERAL IMPRESSION IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LOOKS A TAD WEAKER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY, AND WITH THE
SLIGHTLY WEAKER LOOKING RIDGE ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO HOW IT WAS
DEPICTED 24 HOURS AGO...THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS
COOLING FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO.
NEVERTHELESS, THESE CHANGES ARE QUITE MINOR (A MATTER OF A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER ON SATURDAY AND A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON SUNDAY). TROUGH
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY REGIONWIDE WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS
AFTER TROUGH PASSAGE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. LONGWAVE RIDGING RECOMMENCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A LOW CUTTING OFF IN THE SUBTROPICAL
EASTERN PACIFIC AS THE WEEKEND SYSTEM PROGRESSES THROUGH THE WEST.
WHAT EXACTLY HAPPENS TO THIS LOW IS ANYONE`S GUESS, AS MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING MIGHTILY WITH HOW THIS LOW INTERACTS WITH AN UPSTREAM
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE EAST PACIFIC INTO THE
WEST COAST NEXT WEEK. 00Z ECMWF SHOWS REASONABLE
PHASING/AMPLIFICATION WITH THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE WEST
MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT ALSO SHOWS A RATHER DRY DEPICTION OF THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH. MEANWHILE...00Z GFS LOOKS WETTER BUT
ACTUALLY CLOSES OFF A SECONDARY LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THAT
PROGRESSES THROUGH OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK, CREATING A SECOND
PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP FOR THE SOUTHWEST. 00Z CMC LOOKS AT
LEAST REASONABLY SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF, AND THE 06Z DGEX LOOKS
REMINISCENT OF THE 00Z GFS. 18Z DGEX HAD THE EAST PACIFIC LOW MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY (SOMETHING HINTED AT BY THE MODEL
24 HOURS BEFORE) BUT HAS ESSENTIALLY ZERO SUPPORT FROM ANY OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTION. VERY BRIEF LOOK AT 06Z GFS SHOWS A
MUCH DIFFERENT DEPICTION OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH`S PASSAGE THROUGH THE
WEST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (MUCH SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH) WITH A
SUBSEQUENT CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING MUCH FARTHER NORTHWEST THAN ITS 00Z
COUNTERPART SUGGESTS. HOWEVER, IT DOES PROGRESS THIS CUTOFF INTO THE
SOUTHWEST THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

SUCH LARGE SPREAD FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND SUCH LARGE CHANGES IN
CONTINUITY FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN, QUITE COMMON WITH CUTOFF
LOWS PROGRESSING INTO LONGWAVE RIDGES, LEAD TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK. THROUGH TUESDAY, IT APPEARS WARM AND DRY
WEATHER WILL HOLD (FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE), BUT AFTER THAT IS NOT AT
ALL CLEAR. PLENTY OF TIME TO FIGURE THINGS OUT, THOUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
THIN CIRRUS AND VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 KNOTS. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...TRANQUIL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND ONLY SOME THIN CIRRUS TODAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING NORTH BREEZES GUSTING AROUND 20-25
KNOTS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY NEAR KIFP TODAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SALMEN
LONG TERM...SHAFER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 100456 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
856 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR LAUGHLIN AND BULLHEAD CITY...BUT WINDS
WILL BE TRENDING WEAKER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.UPDATE...EXPECT SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE
NEEDED.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...235 PM PST...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING...BUT DECREASING...NORTH
WINDS NEAR LAUGHLIN AND BULLHEAD CITY ARE THE MOST NOTEWORTHY
SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS UNDER AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE
REGION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN UNDAUNTED BY AN
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH IS BEING STEERED TO THE NORTH BUT WILL
MANAGE TO SPREAD SOME THIN CIRRUS THROUGH THE RIDGE OVERNIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF THIN CIRRUS WILL SPREAD INLAND
THROUGH THURSDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BLOCK MUCH SUNSHINE DURING THIS WARM
SPELL. THE LATEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE ANY NEED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE THE GOING FORECAST TRENDS BUT MINOR TWEAKS WERE
MADE BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND BCCONSMOS. THERE ARE LOW
HANGING RECORD MAX TEMPS FOR BOTH LAS VEGAS AND DEATH VALLEY FOR FEB
10...74 DEGREES (SET IN 2014) AND 85 DEGREES (SET IN 2015)
RESPECTIVELY. THEY WILL BE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR POSSIBLY
BROKEN BY A DEGREE OR SO.

NORTH WINDS STILL GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AT LAUGHLIN
AND BULLHEAD CITY WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 20-25 MPH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA IS THE MAIN STORY OF THE LONG TERM. POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST 00Z-12Z SATURDAY (A BIT FASTER IN
THE MOST RECENT MODEL SIMULATIONS) WHICH ACTS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE
SOMEWHAT AND PROGRESS ITS AXIS SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM
(WEAK) MANIFESTATION OF THE TROUGH, THOUGH RATHER SUBSTANTIAL TIMING
AND VORT MAX ORIENTATION DISCREPANCIES REMAIN AS THE SOUTHWEST
RECEIVES A MERE GLANCING BLOW. NEVERTHELESS, THE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
DEPICTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN GENERAL SUGGESTS A BIT STRONGER
OF A COOLDOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND VERSUS WHAT WAS THOUGHT 24 HOURS
AGO. AS SUCH, MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY
VERSUS SATURDAY AT THIS POINT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN THE CONTINUED MODEL VARIABILITY, ESPECIALLY
REGARDING TIMING.

AS THE TROUGH PASSES THE AREA SUNDAY, WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST. HI-RES SOLUTIONS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY (UNDOUBTEDLY OWING TO THE STRONGER
APPEARANCE TO THE TROUGH). BUMPED WIND SPEEDS UP ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE
WIND-PRONE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IN ANY PART OF THE CWA.

AS DISCUSSED LAST NIGHT, MODEL SOLUTIONS THEREAFTER CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A LOW CLOSING OFF IN THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS NORTH AND
EAST. THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE THE WARM AND DRY PATTERN WE WILL HAVE
SEEN FOR ALMOST TWO WEEKS BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER, THE
POSITIONING OF THIS EAST PACIFIC LOW REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPSTREAM LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST
INTO THE FAR EAST PACIFIC LATE NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH, MODELS CONTINUE
TO HINT AT A FAIRLY POTENT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE WEST
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. OF COURSE, THIS REMAINS A
LONG, LONG WAY OUT (BEYOND THE LONG TERM PERIOD) AND MUCH CAN (AND
WILL) CHANGE. NEVERTHELESS, THIS WILL BEAR SOME WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 6 KNOTS AND ONLY SOME THIN CIRRUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...TRANQUIL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND ONLY SOME THIN CIRRUS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING NORTH BREEZES GUSTING
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FROM KIFP TO KEED
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SALMEN

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...SHAFER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 100456 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
856 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR LAUGHLIN AND BULLHEAD CITY...BUT WINDS
WILL BE TRENDING WEAKER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.UPDATE...EXPECT SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE
NEEDED.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...235 PM PST...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING...BUT DECREASING...NORTH
WINDS NEAR LAUGHLIN AND BULLHEAD CITY ARE THE MOST NOTEWORTHY
SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS UNDER AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE
REGION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN UNDAUNTED BY AN
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH IS BEING STEERED TO THE NORTH BUT WILL
MANAGE TO SPREAD SOME THIN CIRRUS THROUGH THE RIDGE OVERNIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF THIN CIRRUS WILL SPREAD INLAND
THROUGH THURSDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BLOCK MUCH SUNSHINE DURING THIS WARM
SPELL. THE LATEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE ANY NEED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE THE GOING FORECAST TRENDS BUT MINOR TWEAKS WERE
MADE BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND BCCONSMOS. THERE ARE LOW
HANGING RECORD MAX TEMPS FOR BOTH LAS VEGAS AND DEATH VALLEY FOR FEB
10...74 DEGREES (SET IN 2014) AND 85 DEGREES (SET IN 2015)
RESPECTIVELY. THEY WILL BE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR POSSIBLY
BROKEN BY A DEGREE OR SO.

NORTH WINDS STILL GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AT LAUGHLIN
AND BULLHEAD CITY WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 20-25 MPH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA IS THE MAIN STORY OF THE LONG TERM. POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST 00Z-12Z SATURDAY (A BIT FASTER IN
THE MOST RECENT MODEL SIMULATIONS) WHICH ACTS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE
SOMEWHAT AND PROGRESS ITS AXIS SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM
(WEAK) MANIFESTATION OF THE TROUGH, THOUGH RATHER SUBSTANTIAL TIMING
AND VORT MAX ORIENTATION DISCREPANCIES REMAIN AS THE SOUTHWEST
RECEIVES A MERE GLANCING BLOW. NEVERTHELESS, THE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
DEPICTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN GENERAL SUGGESTS A BIT STRONGER
OF A COOLDOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND VERSUS WHAT WAS THOUGHT 24 HOURS
AGO. AS SUCH, MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY
VERSUS SATURDAY AT THIS POINT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN THE CONTINUED MODEL VARIABILITY, ESPECIALLY
REGARDING TIMING.

AS THE TROUGH PASSES THE AREA SUNDAY, WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST. HI-RES SOLUTIONS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY (UNDOUBTEDLY OWING TO THE STRONGER
APPEARANCE TO THE TROUGH). BUMPED WIND SPEEDS UP ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE
WIND-PRONE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IN ANY PART OF THE CWA.

AS DISCUSSED LAST NIGHT, MODEL SOLUTIONS THEREAFTER CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A LOW CLOSING OFF IN THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS NORTH AND
EAST. THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE THE WARM AND DRY PATTERN WE WILL HAVE
SEEN FOR ALMOST TWO WEEKS BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER, THE
POSITIONING OF THIS EAST PACIFIC LOW REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPSTREAM LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST
INTO THE FAR EAST PACIFIC LATE NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH, MODELS CONTINUE
TO HINT AT A FAIRLY POTENT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE WEST
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. OF COURSE, THIS REMAINS A
LONG, LONG WAY OUT (BEYOND THE LONG TERM PERIOD) AND MUCH CAN (AND
WILL) CHANGE. NEVERTHELESS, THIS WILL BEAR SOME WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 6 KNOTS AND ONLY SOME THIN CIRRUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...TRANQUIL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND ONLY SOME THIN CIRRUS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING NORTH BREEZES GUSTING
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FROM KIFP TO KEED
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SALMEN

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...SHAFER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 100456 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
856 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR LAUGHLIN AND BULLHEAD CITY...BUT WINDS
WILL BE TRENDING WEAKER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.UPDATE...EXPECT SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE
NEEDED.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...235 PM PST...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING...BUT DECREASING...NORTH
WINDS NEAR LAUGHLIN AND BULLHEAD CITY ARE THE MOST NOTEWORTHY
SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS UNDER AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE
REGION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN UNDAUNTED BY AN
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH IS BEING STEERED TO THE NORTH BUT WILL
MANAGE TO SPREAD SOME THIN CIRRUS THROUGH THE RIDGE OVERNIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF THIN CIRRUS WILL SPREAD INLAND
THROUGH THURSDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BLOCK MUCH SUNSHINE DURING THIS WARM
SPELL. THE LATEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE ANY NEED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE THE GOING FORECAST TRENDS BUT MINOR TWEAKS WERE
MADE BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND BCCONSMOS. THERE ARE LOW
HANGING RECORD MAX TEMPS FOR BOTH LAS VEGAS AND DEATH VALLEY FOR FEB
10...74 DEGREES (SET IN 2014) AND 85 DEGREES (SET IN 2015)
RESPECTIVELY. THEY WILL BE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR POSSIBLY
BROKEN BY A DEGREE OR SO.

NORTH WINDS STILL GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AT LAUGHLIN
AND BULLHEAD CITY WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 20-25 MPH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA IS THE MAIN STORY OF THE LONG TERM. POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST 00Z-12Z SATURDAY (A BIT FASTER IN
THE MOST RECENT MODEL SIMULATIONS) WHICH ACTS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE
SOMEWHAT AND PROGRESS ITS AXIS SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM
(WEAK) MANIFESTATION OF THE TROUGH, THOUGH RATHER SUBSTANTIAL TIMING
AND VORT MAX ORIENTATION DISCREPANCIES REMAIN AS THE SOUTHWEST
RECEIVES A MERE GLANCING BLOW. NEVERTHELESS, THE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
DEPICTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN GENERAL SUGGESTS A BIT STRONGER
OF A COOLDOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND VERSUS WHAT WAS THOUGHT 24 HOURS
AGO. AS SUCH, MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY
VERSUS SATURDAY AT THIS POINT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN THE CONTINUED MODEL VARIABILITY, ESPECIALLY
REGARDING TIMING.

AS THE TROUGH PASSES THE AREA SUNDAY, WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST. HI-RES SOLUTIONS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY (UNDOUBTEDLY OWING TO THE STRONGER
APPEARANCE TO THE TROUGH). BUMPED WIND SPEEDS UP ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE
WIND-PRONE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IN ANY PART OF THE CWA.

AS DISCUSSED LAST NIGHT, MODEL SOLUTIONS THEREAFTER CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A LOW CLOSING OFF IN THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS NORTH AND
EAST. THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE THE WARM AND DRY PATTERN WE WILL HAVE
SEEN FOR ALMOST TWO WEEKS BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER, THE
POSITIONING OF THIS EAST PACIFIC LOW REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPSTREAM LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST
INTO THE FAR EAST PACIFIC LATE NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH, MODELS CONTINUE
TO HINT AT A FAIRLY POTENT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE WEST
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. OF COURSE, THIS REMAINS A
LONG, LONG WAY OUT (BEYOND THE LONG TERM PERIOD) AND MUCH CAN (AND
WILL) CHANGE. NEVERTHELESS, THIS WILL BEAR SOME WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 6 KNOTS AND ONLY SOME THIN CIRRUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...TRANQUIL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND ONLY SOME THIN CIRRUS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING NORTH BREEZES GUSTING
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FROM KIFP TO KEED
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SALMEN

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...SHAFER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




000
FXUS65 KVEF 092235
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
235 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR LAUGHLIN AND BULLHEAD CITY...BUT WINDS
WILL BE TRENDING WEAKER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING...BUT DECREASING...NORTH
WINDS NEAR LAUGHLIN AND BULLHEAD CITY ARE THE MOST NOTEWORTHY
SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS UNDER AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE
REGION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN UNDAUNTED BY AN
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH IS BEING STEERED TO THE NORTH BUT WILL
MANAGE TO SPREAD SOME THIN CIRRUS THROUGH THE RIDGE OVERNIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF THIN CIRRUS WILL SPREAD INLAND
THROUGH THURSDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BLOCK MUCH SUNSHINE DURING THIS WARM
SPELL. THE LATEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE ANY NEED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE THE GOING FORECAST TRENDS BUT MINOR TWEAKS WERE
MADE BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND BCCONSMOS. THERE ARE LOW
HANGING RECORD MAX TEMPS FOR BOTH LAS VEGAS AND DEATH VALLEY FOR FEB
10...74 DEGREES (SET IN 2014) AND 85 DEGREES (SET IN 2015)
RESPECTIVELY. THEY WILL BE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR POSSIBLY
BROKEN BY A DEGREE OR SO.

NORTH WINDS STILL GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AT LAUGHLIN
AND BULLHEAD CITY WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 20-25 MPH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA IS THE MAIN STORY OF THE LONG TERM. POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST 00Z-12Z SATURDAY (A BIT FASTER IN
THE MOST RECENT MODEL SIMULATIONS) WHICH ACTS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE
SOMEWHAT AND PROGRESS ITS AXIS SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM
(WEAK) MANIFESTATION OF THE TROUGH, THOUGH RATHER SUBSTANTIAL TIMING
AND VORT MAX ORIENTATION DISCREPANCIES REMAIN AS THE SOUTHWEST
RECEIVES A MERE GLANCING BLOW. NEVERTHELESS, THE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
DEPICTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN GENERAL SUGGESTS A BIT STRONGER
OF A COOLDOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND VERSUS WHAT WAS THOUGHT 24 HOURS
AGO. AS SUCH, MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY
VERSUS SATURDAY AT THIS POINT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN THE CONTINUED MODEL VARIABILITY, ESPECIALLY
REGARDING TIMING.

AS THE TROUGH PASSES THE AREA SUNDAY, WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST. HI-RES SOLUTIONS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY (UNDOUBTEDLY OWING TO THE STRONGER
APPEARANCE TO THE TROUGH). BUMPED WIND SPEEDS UP ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE
WIND-PRONE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IN ANY PART OF THE CWA.

AS DISCUSSED LAST NIGHT, MODEL SOLUTIONS THEREAFTER CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A LOW CLOSING OFF IN THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS NORTH AND
EAST. THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE THE WARM AND DRY PATTERN WE WILL HAVE
SEEN FOR ALMOST TWO WEEKS BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER, THE
POSITIONING OF THIS EAST PACIFIC LOW REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPSTREAM LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST
INTO THE FAR EAST PACIFIC LATE NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH, MODELS CONTINUE
TO HINT AT A FAIRLY POTENT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE WEST
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. OF COURSE, THIS REMAINS A
LONG, LONG WAY OUT (BEYOND THE LONG TERM PERIOD) AND MUCH CAN (AND
WILL) CHANGE. NEVERTHELESS, THIS WILL BEAR SOME WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 6 KNOTS AND ONLY SOME THIN CIRRUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...TRANQUIL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND ONLY SOME THIN CIRRUS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING NORTH BREEZES GUSTING
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FROM KIFP TO KEED
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...SHAFER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 091740
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
940 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLORADO RIVER...BUT WINDS WILL BE TRENDING WEAKER
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.UPDATE...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY RUNNING BETWEEN 1-3 DEGREES
FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED VERY SIMILAR 850-700MB
TEMPS TO MONDAY AFTERNOON SO HIGHS SHOULD BE QUITE CLOSE TO OBSERVED
VALUES MONDAY. WINDS WERE STILL 30-40 MP AT LAUGHLIN-BULLHEAD CITY
THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST SPEEDS LOCALIZED TO THAT SPOT AND
SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASING TREND THIS AFTERNOON. THE GOING FORECAST
TRENDS LOOK OKAY AND NO IMMEDIATE CHANGES ARE NEEDED.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM BUT WILL NOT BE AS EXPANSIVE AFTER TODAY AS PACIFIC
SHORTWAVES ROTATE NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY HOWEVER THEY SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL BECOME MORE LOCALIZED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

ONE NOTE OF INTEREST REGARDING THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IN LAS
VEGAS FOR WEDNESDAY. OUR FORECAST HIGH OF 74 DEGREES MATCHES THE
RECORD HIGH PREVIOUSLY SET IN 2014 AND THE HOT-OFF-THE-PRESS 06Z MAV
MOS IS NOW FORECASTING A TOASTY 75 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA IS THE MAIN STORY OF THE LONG TERM. POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST 00Z-12Z SATURDAY (A BIT FASTER IN
THE MOST RECENT MODEL SIMULATIONS) WHICH ACTS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE
SOMEWHAT AND PROGRESS ITS AXIS SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM
(WEAK) MANIFESTATION OF THE TROUGH, THOUGH RATHER SUBSTANTIAL TIMING
AND VORT MAX ORIENTATION DISCREPANCIES REMAIN AS THE SOUTHWEST
RECEIVES A MERE GLANCING BLOW. NEVERTHELESS, THE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
DEPICTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN GENERAL SUGGESTS A BIT STRONGER
OF A COOLDOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND VERSUS WHAT WAS THOUGHT 24 HOURS
AGO. AS SUCH, MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY
VERSUS SATURDAY AT THIS POINT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN THE CONTINUED MODEL VARIABILITY, ESPECIALLY
REGARDING TIMING.

AS THE TROUGH PASSES THE AREA SUNDAY, WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST. HI-RES SOLUTIONS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY (UNDOUBTEDLY OWING TO THE STRONGER
APPEARANCE TO THE TROUGH). BUMPED WIND SPEEDS UP ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE
WIND-PRONE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IN ANY PART OF THE CWA.

AS DISCUSSED LAST NIGHT, MODEL SOLUTIONS THEREAFTER CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A LOW CLOSING OFF IN THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS NORTH AND
EAST. THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE THE WARM AND DRY PATTERN WE WILL HAVE
SEEN FOR ALMOST TWO WEEKS BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER, THE
POSITIONING OF THIS EAST PACIFIC LOW REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPSTREAM LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST
INTO THE FAR EAST PACIFIC LATE NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH, MODELS CONTINUE
TO HINT AT A FAIRLY POTENT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE WEST
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. OF COURSE, THIS REMAINS A
LONG, LONG WAY OUT (BEYOND THE LONG TERM PERIOD) AND MUCH CAN (AND
WILL) CHANGE. NEVERTHELESS, THIS WILL BEAR SOME WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY
UNDER A CLEAR SKY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CLEAR SKIES AREA WIDE. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FROM KIFP TO KEED BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS TODAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAIR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SALMEN
LONG TERM...SHAFER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 091740
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
940 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLORADO RIVER...BUT WINDS WILL BE TRENDING WEAKER
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.UPDATE...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY RUNNING BETWEEN 1-3 DEGREES
FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED VERY SIMILAR 850-700MB
TEMPS TO MONDAY AFTERNOON SO HIGHS SHOULD BE QUITE CLOSE TO OBSERVED
VALUES MONDAY. WINDS WERE STILL 30-40 MP AT LAUGHLIN-BULLHEAD CITY
THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST SPEEDS LOCALIZED TO THAT SPOT AND
SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASING TREND THIS AFTERNOON. THE GOING FORECAST
TRENDS LOOK OKAY AND NO IMMEDIATE CHANGES ARE NEEDED.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM BUT WILL NOT BE AS EXPANSIVE AFTER TODAY AS PACIFIC
SHORTWAVES ROTATE NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY HOWEVER THEY SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL BECOME MORE LOCALIZED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

ONE NOTE OF INTEREST REGARDING THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IN LAS
VEGAS FOR WEDNESDAY. OUR FORECAST HIGH OF 74 DEGREES MATCHES THE
RECORD HIGH PREVIOUSLY SET IN 2014 AND THE HOT-OFF-THE-PRESS 06Z MAV
MOS IS NOW FORECASTING A TOASTY 75 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA IS THE MAIN STORY OF THE LONG TERM. POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST 00Z-12Z SATURDAY (A BIT FASTER IN
THE MOST RECENT MODEL SIMULATIONS) WHICH ACTS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE
SOMEWHAT AND PROGRESS ITS AXIS SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM
(WEAK) MANIFESTATION OF THE TROUGH, THOUGH RATHER SUBSTANTIAL TIMING
AND VORT MAX ORIENTATION DISCREPANCIES REMAIN AS THE SOUTHWEST
RECEIVES A MERE GLANCING BLOW. NEVERTHELESS, THE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
DEPICTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN GENERAL SUGGESTS A BIT STRONGER
OF A COOLDOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND VERSUS WHAT WAS THOUGHT 24 HOURS
AGO. AS SUCH, MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY
VERSUS SATURDAY AT THIS POINT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN THE CONTINUED MODEL VARIABILITY, ESPECIALLY
REGARDING TIMING.

AS THE TROUGH PASSES THE AREA SUNDAY, WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST. HI-RES SOLUTIONS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY (UNDOUBTEDLY OWING TO THE STRONGER
APPEARANCE TO THE TROUGH). BUMPED WIND SPEEDS UP ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE
WIND-PRONE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IN ANY PART OF THE CWA.

AS DISCUSSED LAST NIGHT, MODEL SOLUTIONS THEREAFTER CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A LOW CLOSING OFF IN THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS NORTH AND
EAST. THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE THE WARM AND DRY PATTERN WE WILL HAVE
SEEN FOR ALMOST TWO WEEKS BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER, THE
POSITIONING OF THIS EAST PACIFIC LOW REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPSTREAM LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST
INTO THE FAR EAST PACIFIC LATE NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH, MODELS CONTINUE
TO HINT AT A FAIRLY POTENT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE WEST
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. OF COURSE, THIS REMAINS A
LONG, LONG WAY OUT (BEYOND THE LONG TERM PERIOD) AND MUCH CAN (AND
WILL) CHANGE. NEVERTHELESS, THIS WILL BEAR SOME WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY
UNDER A CLEAR SKY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CLEAR SKIES AREA WIDE. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FROM KIFP TO KEED BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS TODAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAIR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SALMEN
LONG TERM...SHAFER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





000
FXUS65 KVEF 091034
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
234 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLORADO RIVER...BUT WINDS WILL BE TRENDING WEAKER
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM BUT WILL NOT BE AS EXPANSIVE AFTER TODAY AS PACIFIC
SHORTWAVES ROTATE NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY HOWEVER THEY SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL BECOME MORE LOCALIZED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

ONE NOTE OF INTEREST REGARDING THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IN LAS
VEGAS FOR WEDNESDAY. OUR FORECAST HIGH OF 74 DEGREES MATCHES THE
RECORD HIGH PREVIOUSLY SET IN 2014 AND THE HOT-OFF-THE-PRESS 06Z MAV
MOS IS NOW FORECASTING A TOASTY 75 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA IS THE MAIN STORY OF THE LONG TERM. POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST 00Z-12Z SATURDAY (A BIT FASTER IN
THE MOST RECENT MODEL SIMULATIONS) WHICH ACTS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE
SOMEWHAT AND PROGRESS ITS AXIS SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM
(WEAK) MANIFESTATION OF THE TROUGH, THOUGH RATHER SUBSTANTIAL TIMING
AND VORT MAX ORIENTATION DISCREPANCIES REMAIN AS THE SOUTHWEST
RECEIVES A MERE GLANCING BLOW. NEVERTHELESS, THE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
DEPICTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN GENERAL SUGGESTS A BIT STRONGER
OF A COOLDOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND VERSUS WHAT WAS THOUGHT 24 HOURS
AGO. AS SUCH, MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY
VERSUS SATURDAY AT THIS POINT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN THE CONTINUED MODEL VARIABILITY, ESPECIALLY
REGARDING TIMING.

AS THE TROUGH PASSES THE AREA SUNDAY, WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST. HI-RES SOLUTIONS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY (UNDOUBTEDLY OWING TO THE STRONGER
APPEARANCE TO THE TROUGH). BUMPED WIND SPEEDS UP ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE
WIND-PRONE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IN ANY PART OF THE CWA.

AS DISCUSSED LAST NIGHT, MODEL SOLUTIONS THEREAFTER CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A LOW CLOSING OFF IN THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS NORTH AND
EAST. THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE THE WARM AND DRY PATTERN WE WILL HAVE
SEEN FOR ALMOST TWO WEEKS BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER, THE
POSITIONING OF THIS EAST PACIFIC LOW REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPSTREAM LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST
INTO THE FAR EAST PACIFIC LATE NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH, MODELS CONTINUE
TO HINT AT A FAIRLY POTENT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE WEST
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. OF COURSE, THIS REMAINS A
LONG, LONG WAY OUT (BEYOND THE LONG TERM PERIOD) AND MUCH CAN (AND
WILL) CHANGE. NEVERTHELESS, THIS WILL BEAR SOME WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY
UNDER A CLEAR SKY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CLEAR SKIES AREA WIDE. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FROM KIFP TO KEED BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS TODAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SALMEN
LONG TERM...SHAFER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





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