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000
FXZS60 NSTU 140143
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
243 PM SST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING RAINFALL ACTIVITY AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE
ARRIVAL OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH MODERATE
TO FRESH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ENHANCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISSUANCE
OF HYDROLOGICAL PRODUCTS ARE MANDATORY TO MIRROR THIS EXPECTED THIS
SITUATION. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SITUATION AS FUTURE
MODELS BECOME AVAILABLE FOR FURTHER REVIEW.

.LONG TERM...
.TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A MONSOONAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST OF THE DATE LINE TO OVER THE SAMOAN ISLANDS TO BEYOND MANU`A
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL LOUNGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. COMPUTER
MODELS TRACKED A CIRCULATION (FORMER CYCLONE WINSTON) TO PASS THROUGH
THE NORTH OF TONGA REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. PERHAPS A STRONG RIDGE
NORTHEAST OF THE SAMOAN ISLANDS WILL SUPPRESS THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
MOVEMENT OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM LEADING THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATION
TO RETRACK ITS COURSE BACK TO NEAR NADI AROUND FRIDAY.

AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MONSOONAL TROUGH DIGS WELL SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD TAHITI...A FEW OTHER DEVELOPING CIRCULATIONS WILL EVOLVED FROM
ALONG THE MONSOONAL TROUGH BEFORE SATURDAY. THE MUCH ANTICIPATED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE TSTMS SEEMS PROMISING AS THE MONSOONAL TROUGH
LINGERS OVER THE SAMOAN ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE A LOT OF WEATHER AND A BULK OF HEAVY MOISTURE
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR AT LEAST 24 TO 72 HOURS. ISSUANCE OF
HYDROLOGICAL PRODUCTS ARE MANDATORY TO REFLECT THIS EXPECTED SITUATION.

&&

.MARINE...A NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL OF 7 TO 9 FEET WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A 9 TO 12 FT SWELL TUESDAY MORNING. AS MENTIONED
IN THE LONG TERM FCST...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. THE
EXPECTED SWELL COMBINED WITH THESE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SWELLS AND WAVES THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND PROVIDE UPDATES AS FUTURE MODELS BECOME
AVAILABLE.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NONE.

&&

$$

CB









000
FXZS60 NSTU 140143
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
243 PM SST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING RAINFALL ACTIVITY AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE
ARRIVAL OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH MODERATE
TO FRESH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ENHANCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISSUANCE
OF HYDROLOGICAL PRODUCTS ARE MANDATORY TO MIRROR THIS EXPECTED THIS
SITUATION. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SITUATION AS FUTURE
MODELS BECOME AVAILABLE FOR FURTHER REVIEW.

.LONG TERM...
.TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A MONSOONAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST OF THE DATE LINE TO OVER THE SAMOAN ISLANDS TO BEYOND MANU`A
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL LOUNGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. COMPUTER
MODELS TRACKED A CIRCULATION (FORMER CYCLONE WINSTON) TO PASS THROUGH
THE NORTH OF TONGA REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. PERHAPS A STRONG RIDGE
NORTHEAST OF THE SAMOAN ISLANDS WILL SUPPRESS THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
MOVEMENT OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM LEADING THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATION
TO RETRACK ITS COURSE BACK TO NEAR NADI AROUND FRIDAY.

AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MONSOONAL TROUGH DIGS WELL SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD TAHITI...A FEW OTHER DEVELOPING CIRCULATIONS WILL EVOLVED FROM
ALONG THE MONSOONAL TROUGH BEFORE SATURDAY. THE MUCH ANTICIPATED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE TSTMS SEEMS PROMISING AS THE MONSOONAL TROUGH
LINGERS OVER THE SAMOAN ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE A LOT OF WEATHER AND A BULK OF HEAVY MOISTURE
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR AT LEAST 24 TO 72 HOURS. ISSUANCE OF
HYDROLOGICAL PRODUCTS ARE MANDATORY TO REFLECT THIS EXPECTED SITUATION.

&&

.MARINE...A NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL OF 7 TO 9 FEET WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A 9 TO 12 FT SWELL TUESDAY MORNING. AS MENTIONED
IN THE LONG TERM FCST...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. THE
EXPECTED SWELL COMBINED WITH THESE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SWELLS AND WAVES THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND PROVIDE UPDATES AS FUTURE MODELS BECOME
AVAILABLE.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NONE.

&&

$$

CB









000
FXZS60 NSTU 130052
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
152 PM SST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A DRY SPELL WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
SAMOAN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOCAL EFFECTS
WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER TUTUILA AND MANUA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. DRY EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY EVENING...THEN TURNING NORTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 KT SUNDAY. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO
NEAR THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS THE BULK OF MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE
WEST OF THE DATE LINE.

.LONG TERM...
.MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MONSOONAL TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA STARTING MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. IF
MODELS ARE CORRECT...NUMEROUS TO FREQUENT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
TSTMS WILL ENTER THE FCST ZONES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. FOR
NOW...WILL UPDATE THE SHOWER COVERAGE TO SCATTERED WORDING STARTING
MONDAY EVENING WHILE MONITORING THIS SITUATION FOR FURTHER UPDATES.
ANTICIPATE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL OF 7 TO 9 FEET WILL ENTER THE SAMOAN WATERS
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...THEN BUILDING TO NEAR 9 TO 12 FEET TUESDAY.
ISSUANCE OF ADVISORIES FOR HIGH SURFS AND SMALL CRAFTS ARE MANDATORY
TO REFLECT THIS EXPECTED SITUATION.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NONE.

&&

$$

CB








000
FXZS60 NSTU 130052
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
152 PM SST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A DRY SPELL WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
SAMOAN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOCAL EFFECTS
WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER TUTUILA AND MANUA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. DRY EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY EVENING...THEN TURNING NORTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 KT SUNDAY. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO
NEAR THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS THE BULK OF MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE
WEST OF THE DATE LINE.

.LONG TERM...
.MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MONSOONAL TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA STARTING MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. IF
MODELS ARE CORRECT...NUMEROUS TO FREQUENT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
TSTMS WILL ENTER THE FCST ZONES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. FOR
NOW...WILL UPDATE THE SHOWER COVERAGE TO SCATTERED WORDING STARTING
MONDAY EVENING WHILE MONITORING THIS SITUATION FOR FURTHER UPDATES.
ANTICIPATE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL OF 7 TO 9 FEET WILL ENTER THE SAMOAN WATERS
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...THEN BUILDING TO NEAR 9 TO 12 FEET TUESDAY.
ISSUANCE OF ADVISORIES FOR HIGH SURFS AND SMALL CRAFTS ARE MANDATORY
TO REFLECT THIS EXPECTED SITUATION.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NONE.

&&

$$

CB








000
FXZS60 NSTU 120130
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
230 PM SST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREV
FCST. VERY DRY AND HUMID AIR CONDITIONS AND MINIMAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION WILL USHER GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE THEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE UP TO 10 KT FRIDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
BETWEEN 114 TO 120 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...
.SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS STARTING TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE SHOWER COVERAGE AT A
MINIMAL UNTIL NEW MODELS BECOME AVAILABLE. WILL KEEP THE PREV FCST
THE SAME.

&&

.MARINE...COMBINED SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. THE LATEST WAVE WATCH MODEL SHOWS A NEW NORTH-NORTHEAST
SWELL OF 7 TO 9 FEET IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SAMOAN WATERS STARTING
TUESDAY. WILL MONITOR THIS EXPECTED SITUATION BEFORE MAKING NEW
UPDATES.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NONE.

&&

$$

CB








000
FXZS60 NSTU 120130
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
230 PM SST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREV
FCST. VERY DRY AND HUMID AIR CONDITIONS AND MINIMAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION WILL USHER GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE THEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE UP TO 10 KT FRIDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
BETWEEN 114 TO 120 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...
.SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS STARTING TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE SHOWER COVERAGE AT A
MINIMAL UNTIL NEW MODELS BECOME AVAILABLE. WILL KEEP THE PREV FCST
THE SAME.

&&

.MARINE...COMBINED SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. THE LATEST WAVE WATCH MODEL SHOWS A NEW NORTH-NORTHEAST
SWELL OF 7 TO 9 FEET IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SAMOAN WATERS STARTING
TUESDAY. WILL MONITOR THIS EXPECTED SITUATION BEFORE MAKING NEW
UPDATES.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NONE.

&&

$$

CB








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