Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXZS60 NSTU 170036
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
136 PM SST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER NEAR
THE SAMOAN ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY. THANKS TO A LARGE SCALE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL
BRACE THE TROUGH CLOSER TO THE FCST ZONES THUS ALLOWING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO DAMPEN SAVAII AND UPOLU STARTING TONIGHT INTO
18/0300 UTC. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL ENHANCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA. AS THE TRADE-WINDS RETURN THURSDAY MORNING...FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES AND SCATTERED TO FREQUENT RAINFALL WILL MAKE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE SAMOAN ISLANDS BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KT THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT MINIMAL SHOWERS OVER
AMERICAN SAMOA UNTIL THURSDAY...WHILE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
MAKE THEIR WAY OVER UPOLU AND SAVAII TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE BREAKS
IN SHOWERS...THUS ANTICIPATE WET WEATHER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
.FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE LATEST GFS MODEL RESOLUTION MATERIALIZES
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE MONSOONAL TROUGH AXIS STARTING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WEATHER PHENOMENON WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL
MONITOR THIS SITUATION BEFORE MAKING NEW UPDATES. WILL KEEP THE
PREV FCST THE SAME. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...COMBINED SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LATEST WAVE WATCH MODEL SHOWS SEA HEIGHTS PEAKING TO NEAR
9 TO 10 FEET SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NONE.

&&

$$

BAQUI







000
FXZS60 NSTU 160051
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
151 PM SST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TERRITORY IS EVIDENT IN LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS...A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING. LATEST MODELS SHOW
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DRIFTING BACK CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS BY
LATE TUESDAY...BRINGING AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT STRONG WINDS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS.

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN ACROSS
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
FAR SOUTH OF THE TERRITORY DRIFTS EAST. FURTHERMORE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO LINGER NEAR THE TERRITORY...WITH A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING WITHIN IT...SOUTH OF THE SAMOAN ISLANDS...BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PACKAGE.

AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN WINDS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE
MAY PROMPT AN ADVISORY FOR SMALL CRAFTS FOR WINDS IF THRESHOLDS
ARE MET.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

LUTU-MCMOORE







000
FXZS60 NSTU 150056
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
156 PM SST SUN DEC 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE NEAR THE ISLANDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE TERRITORY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE PREVAILING RIDGE IS ALSO EVIDENT
IN THE 15/00Z SOUNDING...DEPICTING DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.

LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS REMAIN LAX OVER THE AREA. HENCE...WILL KEEP PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND READJUST WINDS TO REFLECT LIGHTER WINDS AS DEPICTED
BY LATEST SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM...
LATEST SOLUTIONS SHOW A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR SOUTH OF
THE TERRITORY. THIS STRENGTHENING HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A BAND
OF SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS ACCOMPANIED WITH AN UPTICK IN
SOUTHEAST WINDS. HENCE...WILL READJUST TO REFLECT THE SLIGHT
UPTICK IN WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WAVE WATCH SHOW SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$
LUTU-MCMOORE








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities