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000
FXZS60 NSTU 040113
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
213 PM SST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE
SAMOAN ISLANDS WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY
EASTERLY WINDS WILL ENHANCE CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO
LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE
RETURN OF EASTERLY WINDS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...
.FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE GFS MODEL RESOLUTION
MATERIALIZES A CIRCULATION WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION STARTING
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LOT OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THUS HUMID WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEW
WEEK. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE
TSTMS DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A DEVELOPING CIRCULATION
INTENSIFY WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...COMBINED SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NONE.

&&

$$

BAQUI







000
FXZS60 NSTU 030059
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
159 PM SST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE
SAMOAN ISLANDS WILL ENHANCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE NORTH WILL SUPPRESS
THE EXISTING TROUGH TO MOVE SOUTHWARD DURING WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...
ANTICIPATE GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME VARIABLE UP
TO 10 KT STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
.THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...PAST
NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST MINIMAL SHOWER COVERAGE AS VARIABLE WINDS
UP TO 10 KT PERSIST INTO THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE PREV
FCST THE SAME. WILL PROVIDE UPDATES AS NEW MODEL-RUNS BECOME AVAILABLE.

&&

.MARINE...COMBINED SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NONE.

&&

$$

BAQUI










000
FXZS60 NSTU 030059
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
159 PM SST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE
SAMOAN ISLANDS WILL ENHANCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE NORTH WILL SUPPRESS
THE EXISTING TROUGH TO MOVE SOUTHWARD DURING WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...
ANTICIPATE GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME VARIABLE UP
TO 10 KT STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
.THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...PAST
NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST MINIMAL SHOWER COVERAGE AS VARIABLE WINDS
UP TO 10 KT PERSIST INTO THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE PREV
FCST THE SAME. WILL PROVIDE UPDATES AS NEW MODEL-RUNS BECOME AVAILABLE.

&&

.MARINE...COMBINED SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NONE.

&&

$$

BAQUI










000
FXZS60 NSTU 020012
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
112 PM SST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR SOUTH
OF THE SAMOAN ISLANDS WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING OVER
THE TERRITORY WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLIES THROUGH
TONIGHT. LATEST SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENING
MONDAY AS IT DRIFTS EAST...DIMINISHING THE WIND SPEEDS. FURTHERMORE...THE
CLOSENESS OF A SURFACE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE TERRITORY IS SHOWN
TO BRING BOUTS OF SHOWERS ACROSS AMERICAN SAMOA THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...ESPECIALLY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WEAKENS. HOWEVER...MODELS
STILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT
TERM AS THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE
WEST.

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE SAMOAN ISLANDS. CURRENT SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS ONES...BRINGING MOISTURE FROM THIS TROUGH
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SAMOAN
ISLANDS THROUGH THE LONG TERM...INSTEAD OF PREVAILING DRY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS MODEL SKILLS
FOR THE LONG TERM PERIODS ARE OFTEN LOW...AND MAKE CHANGES AS
NECESSARY AS NEWER SOLUTIONS POPULATE. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF
CLOUD COVER AND POPS IN THE LONG TERM...THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST MODELS SHOW SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

LUTU-MCMOORE







000
FXZS60 NSTU 020012
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
112 PM SST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR SOUTH
OF THE SAMOAN ISLANDS WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING OVER
THE TERRITORY WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLIES THROUGH
TONIGHT. LATEST SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENING
MONDAY AS IT DRIFTS EAST...DIMINISHING THE WIND SPEEDS. FURTHERMORE...THE
CLOSENESS OF A SURFACE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE TERRITORY IS SHOWN
TO BRING BOUTS OF SHOWERS ACROSS AMERICAN SAMOA THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...ESPECIALLY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WEAKENS. HOWEVER...MODELS
STILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT
TERM AS THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE
WEST.

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE SAMOAN ISLANDS. CURRENT SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS ONES...BRINGING MOISTURE FROM THIS TROUGH
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SAMOAN
ISLANDS THROUGH THE LONG TERM...INSTEAD OF PREVAILING DRY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS MODEL SKILLS
FOR THE LONG TERM PERIODS ARE OFTEN LOW...AND MAKE CHANGES AS
NECESSARY AS NEWER SOLUTIONS POPULATE. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF
CLOUD COVER AND POPS IN THE LONG TERM...THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST MODELS SHOW SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

LUTU-MCMOORE







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