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000
FXZS60 NSTU 270051
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
151 PM SST TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE NEAR THE
SAMOAN ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW
A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE TERRITORY BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS TOWARD THE
LATTER PART OF THE SHORT TERM. HENCE...WILL SLIGHTLY ADJUST THE
FORECAST TO REFLECT THE INCREASE IN PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
AND CLOUDS.

LIGHT TO FRESH EASTERLIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NEW ZEALAND
MIGRATES EAST SLOWLY.

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER NEAR THE SAMOAN ISLANDS AND MERGE WITH A WEAK
DEVELOPING LOW PASSING FAR SOUTH OF THE TERRITORY. THIS TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE THE BOUTS OF SHOWERS FOR AMERICAN SAMOA. WITH THE
TROUGH REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE TERRITORY...THE WINDS
WILL BECOME PRIMARILY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE SOUTHERLY SWELL IS BUILDING ACROSS COASTAL WATERS OF
AMERICAN SAMOA TONIGHT AND PEAKING THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
IT STARTS TRENDING DOWNWARDS. COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLIES FORECASTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WILL
CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR SMALL CRAFTS AND ISSUE THE ADVISORY FOR
HIGH SURF STARTING TONIGHT.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT

&&

$$

LUTU-MCMOORE







000
FXZS60 NSTU 260101
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
201 PM SST MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERIES SHOW
DIMINISHING COVERAGE OVER MANUA AND TUTUILA. RAOB FROM THIS
AFTERNOON DEPICTS A CONDITIONAL UNSTABLE PROFILE. MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE RIDGE OVER MANUA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS
THE ISLANDS TONIGHT. ASCAT SWATH FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED
BREEZY EAST WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THEREFORE...EXPECT ISOLATED
SHOWERS DURING THE SHORT TERM EXCEPT FOR TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.


.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE NOW BRINGING A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND AS A LOW DEVELOPS TO
THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE PREVIOUS FCST WHILE
MONITORING A FEW MORE RUNS.

&&

.MARINE...
AUNUU BUOY REPORTED SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS ARE NOW DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF SOUTHERN SWELLS TO TUESDAY
NIGHT WHILE PEAKING ON THURSDAY. WILL AMEND THE PREVIOUS TO
REFLECT THE CURRENT CHANGES.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

MALALA








000
FXZS60 NSTU 250103
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
203 PM SST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERIES SHOW SCATTERED
CONVECTIONS OVER THE ISLANDS AND ARE SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD. TO
THE FAR EAST OF MANUA IS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND IS ALSO
MOVING WESTWARD. RAOB FROM THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS AN UNSTABLE
PROFILE. MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD SHOWERS AND MOISTURE OVER THE
ISLANDS TONIGHT BEFORE MINIMIZING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ON MONDAY
NIGHT. GENTLE EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS TO
DECREASE AND EAST WINDS TO INCREASE DURING THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP FAR SOUTH
OF THE ISLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WINDS TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT MINIMAL
SHOWERS DURING THE LONG TERM.

&&

.MARINE...
AUNUU BUOY INDICATES SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT AND MODELS AGREE THAT THESE
HEIGHTS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SET OF SWELLS FROM
THE SOUTH WILL ONCE AGAIN EXCEED THRESHOLDS ON MONDAY NIGHT. SOME
MODELS SUGGEST A POSSIBLE WARNING ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER
WILL KEEP THE PREVIOUS FCST WHILE WAITING FOR A COUPLE MORE MODEL
RUNS. HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

MALALA








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