Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXZS60 NSTU 270050
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
150 PM SST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE MONSOONAL TO THE
NORTHWEST REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. ASCAT AND TRMM SWATHES REVEAL
HEAVY RAINFALLS AND VERY STRONG NORTHWESTERLIES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE MONSOONAL TROUGH. RAOB FROM THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS AN UNSTABLE
PROFILE OVER THE ISLANDS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE MONSOONAL TROUGH TO THE FAR
NORTHWEST OF SAVAII ON TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER SAVAII AND UPOLU ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE INTENSIFYING.
THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND INTENSIFY WHILE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THEREFORE...EXPECT WET WEATHER AND INCREASING WINDS
DURING THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS...GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT TUTUILA AND MANUA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AS
THE LOW MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TO STRONG AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE ISLANDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE MONSOONAL AXIS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SAMOAN
ISLANDS. THEREFORE...WET WEATHER AND STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND IN THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVE WATCH ANALYSIS REVEALS ROUGHS SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT ACROSS
COASTAL WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST BEFORE RISING 9 TO
12 FT ON WEDNESDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO ELEVATE TO HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS OF 13 TO 15 FT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE FCST AREA. AS THE LOW DESCENDS FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE BELOW WARNING LEVELS ON FRIDAY
MORNING. HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT COASTAL WATERS AND
SHORELINES THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT

&&

$$

MALALA












000
FXZS60 NSTU 260033
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
133 PM SST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
ACTIVE MONSOONAL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING
NEARLY STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THE SAMOAN ISLANDS. LATEST
SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH. THIS SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT WILL CAUSE AN INCREASING TREND IN SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM. FURTHERMORE...THE MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH COUPLED WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF A HIGH PRESSURE FAR SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO BACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. HENCE...MAINTAIN
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND READJUST TO SHOW INCREASING TREND IN SHOWERS
AND CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LONG TERM IS VERY INTERESTING AS
LATEST SOLUTIONS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENING WITHIN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MONSOONAL TROUGH NEAR THE TOKELAU GROUP THEN MOVES
IT DIRECTLY SOUTH OVER THE TERRITORY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS AND MAKE UPDATES AS NECESSARY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WAVE WATCH SOLUTIONS SHOW SEAS GRADUALLY INCREASING AND
PEAKING MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LARGE NORTH SWELL FROM THE NORTH
ARRIVES WITHIN OUR AREA. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SWELL AND UPGRADE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY TO A WARNING IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT. IN THE MEANTIME...THE ADVISORIES FOR HIGH SURF
AND SMALL CRAFTS REMAIN FOR ALL ISLANDS. FURTHERMORE...SEAS AND
WINDS ARE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
MONSOONAL TROUGH DRIFTS NEAR THE TERRITORY.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SHORES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS

&&

$$

LUTU-MCMOORE







000
FXZS60 NSTU 250127
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
227 PM SST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A MONSOONAL TROUGH IS FOUND UP TO
250 NM NORTH OF TUTUILA...MOVING NEARLY STATIONARY. COMPUTER
MODELS AGREE TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS UPSTREAM
WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE TSTMS OVER THE FCST ZONES STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED OVER TOKELAU REGION
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING. AS A RESULT...
ANTICIPATE VARIABLE WINDS UP TO 10 KT TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING
NORTHWEST AT 10 KT SUNDAY. WIND SPEED WILL PICK UP A NOTCH TO 15
KT DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THEN TURNING WEST AT 10 KT MONDAY EVENING.
FUTURE FORECASTS MAY REQUIRE UPDATES DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE EXISTING MONSOON TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...
.TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A DEVELOPING SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED A
FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL BAR THE MONSOON TROUGH
FROM LOITERING NEAR TOKELAU. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT TOWARD THE SAMOAN ISLANDS STARTING THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW...WILL MONITOR THIS SITUATION BEFORE
MAKING NEW UPDATES. THEREFORE...THE PREV FCST REMAINS VALID.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND HAZARDOUS SURFS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY MORNING. SEA
HEIGHTS WILL RETURN NEAR 5 TO 7 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
.A  HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

$$

BAQUI









    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities