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000
FXAK68 PAFC 221319
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
419 AM AKST SAT NOV 22 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND IS THE MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
AND SURROUNDING WATERS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW
CENTER CAN BE SEEN ON WV/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING NORTH INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA. RAIN IS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS WAVE
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG A
DIMINISHING BOUNDARY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE MAKING IT INLAND ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND ACROSS THE KENAI...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. A COLDER AIR MASS FILTERED
IN FROM THE YUKON AND HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND
INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. TO THE WEST ACROSS THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS...NORTHERLY FLOW HAS SET UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
WITH SHOWERY CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG WEAKER SHORTWAVES BEHIND
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION(SHORT TERM)...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE. THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF THE NAM
AND CANADIAN REGIONAL WERE USED FOR HANDLING THE SHORTWAVES MOVING
AROUND THE LOW CENTER. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WEEKEND IS ALONG SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AS THEY MAKE THE JOURNEY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. ASIDE FROM ONE STRONGER AND WELL-DEFINED DISTURBANCE
OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING...MODELS INDICATE A PLETHORA OF WEAK
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. BECAUSE OF THE DIFFICULTY IN TRYING
TO TIME THESE MORE THAN 6 HOURS OUT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN THE DETAILS OF WHEN AND WHERE PRECIP WILL FALL.

GENERALLY SPEAKING THE BULK OF PRECIP WITH THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
FALL ALONG THE GULF COAST/KODIAK ISLAND. HOWEVER...WEAK FLOW ACROSS
THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS COMBINED WITH WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO MOVE INLAND DIRECTLY OUT AHEAD OF EACH
DISTURBANCE. PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE IS MAINTAINING
DRY AIR IN THE COOK INLET TO SUSITNA VALLEY CORRIDOR...SO ONLY THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL REACH THE GROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN COLD BAY AND SAND POINT
CONTINUES TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY...WITH VERY LITTLE EASTWARD
PROPAGATION OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS. WITH THE LOW
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND UPSLOPE LOCATIONS ALONG
THE ALASKA RANGE. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PUSH TOWARD THE GULF OF
ALASKA. FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON A WARMING TREND
BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH
AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...

THE LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL ALLOW RAIN TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS DURING THE DAY TODAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO
SHOWERS BY EARLY SUNDAY. MUCH OF THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED RAIN (MIXED WITH SNOW FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE BERING SEA) THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST WITH BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA
COUPLED WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING OUT OF RUSSIA. THIS SETS UP A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES
ALOFT COOLER THAN THE PRESENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING OFF OF KAMCHATKA WILL DRIVE A
FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING SEA ON SUNDAY. A SECOND AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT AND PUSH NORTHWARD TOWARD THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BY LATE
MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
TO THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WITH THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE BERING SEA EXPERIENCING GALE FORCE WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING THE PATTERN LOOKS GENERALLY THE SAME FOR THE
INTO NEXT WEEK BUT SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCE HAVE ARISEN. THE
CURRENT LOW NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA/WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD KEEPING MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE NORTH GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND BEFORE
DISSIPATING ON TUESDAY. INLAND...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS
GREATLY REDUCED...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTH
WINDS FOR MOST AREAS. A ROUND OF CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL SET UP MID-
WEEK BEFORE HIGHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST LATE
WEEK. FURTHER OUT WEST...THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DOMINATED BY A DEVELOPING KAMCHATKA LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT
FRONT SWINGING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS FROM WEST TO EAST. THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE TODAY IS SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW COMPACT SYSTEM ALONG THE FRONT ON
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A STRONG SYSTEM INTO THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA. A COMPLEX LOW PATTERN WILL SET UP THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
DETAILS STILL UNRESOLVED. THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND COULD SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT BY WEDNESDAY. COLD ARCTIC AIR
REMAINS NOWHERE OVER ALASKA AT THIS TIME WITH NO MAJOR SYSTEMS ON
THE HORIZON.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 181.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CLAY
LONG TERM...MTL




000
FXAK68 PAFC 221319
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
419 AM AKST SAT NOV 22 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND IS THE MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
AND SURROUNDING WATERS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW
CENTER CAN BE SEEN ON WV/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING NORTH INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA. RAIN IS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS WAVE
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG A
DIMINISHING BOUNDARY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE MAKING IT INLAND ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND ACROSS THE KENAI...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. A COLDER AIR MASS FILTERED
IN FROM THE YUKON AND HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND
INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. TO THE WEST ACROSS THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS...NORTHERLY FLOW HAS SET UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
WITH SHOWERY CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG WEAKER SHORTWAVES BEHIND
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION(SHORT TERM)...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE. THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF THE NAM
AND CANADIAN REGIONAL WERE USED FOR HANDLING THE SHORTWAVES MOVING
AROUND THE LOW CENTER. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WEEKEND IS ALONG SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AS THEY MAKE THE JOURNEY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. ASIDE FROM ONE STRONGER AND WELL-DEFINED DISTURBANCE
OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING...MODELS INDICATE A PLETHORA OF WEAK
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. BECAUSE OF THE DIFFICULTY IN TRYING
TO TIME THESE MORE THAN 6 HOURS OUT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN THE DETAILS OF WHEN AND WHERE PRECIP WILL FALL.

GENERALLY SPEAKING THE BULK OF PRECIP WITH THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
FALL ALONG THE GULF COAST/KODIAK ISLAND. HOWEVER...WEAK FLOW ACROSS
THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS COMBINED WITH WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO MOVE INLAND DIRECTLY OUT AHEAD OF EACH
DISTURBANCE. PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE IS MAINTAINING
DRY AIR IN THE COOK INLET TO SUSITNA VALLEY CORRIDOR...SO ONLY THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL REACH THE GROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN COLD BAY AND SAND POINT
CONTINUES TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY...WITH VERY LITTLE EASTWARD
PROPAGATION OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS. WITH THE LOW
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND UPSLOPE LOCATIONS ALONG
THE ALASKA RANGE. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PUSH TOWARD THE GULF OF
ALASKA. FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON A WARMING TREND
BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH
AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...

THE LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL ALLOW RAIN TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS DURING THE DAY TODAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO
SHOWERS BY EARLY SUNDAY. MUCH OF THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED RAIN (MIXED WITH SNOW FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE BERING SEA) THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST WITH BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA
COUPLED WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING OUT OF RUSSIA. THIS SETS UP A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES
ALOFT COOLER THAN THE PRESENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING OFF OF KAMCHATKA WILL DRIVE A
FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING SEA ON SUNDAY. A SECOND AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT AND PUSH NORTHWARD TOWARD THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BY LATE
MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
TO THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WITH THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE BERING SEA EXPERIENCING GALE FORCE WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING THE PATTERN LOOKS GENERALLY THE SAME FOR THE
INTO NEXT WEEK BUT SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCE HAVE ARISEN. THE
CURRENT LOW NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA/WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD KEEPING MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE NORTH GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND BEFORE
DISSIPATING ON TUESDAY. INLAND...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS
GREATLY REDUCED...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTH
WINDS FOR MOST AREAS. A ROUND OF CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL SET UP MID-
WEEK BEFORE HIGHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST LATE
WEEK. FURTHER OUT WEST...THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DOMINATED BY A DEVELOPING KAMCHATKA LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT
FRONT SWINGING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS FROM WEST TO EAST. THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE TODAY IS SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW COMPACT SYSTEM ALONG THE FRONT ON
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A STRONG SYSTEM INTO THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA. A COMPLEX LOW PATTERN WILL SET UP THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
DETAILS STILL UNRESOLVED. THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND COULD SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT BY WEDNESDAY. COLD ARCTIC AIR
REMAINS NOWHERE OVER ALASKA AT THIS TIME WITH NO MAJOR SYSTEMS ON
THE HORIZON.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 181.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CLAY
LONG TERM...MTL





000
FXAK68 PAFC 220436
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
736 PM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A FULLY OCCLUDED LOWER 960S SURFACE LOW WITH ACCOMPANYING UPPER
CENTER IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ALASKA PENINSULA. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS NW TOWARD THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. EASTERLY GALES WERE EVIDENT
ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN GULF WITH NE GALES OVER THE WESTERN GULF
AND BARREN ISLANDS. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WERE ALSO OBSERVED ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS. LOCALLY BRISK
GAP WINDS WERE ALSO EVIDENT ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AND THE DELTA.
RAIN WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN GULF AND IN THE PROXIMITY
OF THE LOW OVER THE AK PEN. TEMPERATURES CONTINUED MILD OVER
ACROSS THE GULF...SOUTHCENTRAL...SW ALASKA...WITH AFTERNOON VALUES
IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
THOUGH LINGERED IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION(SHORT TERM)...
MODELS CONTINUE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE STACKED LOW CONTINUING NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE 12Z NAM
WILL BE USED IN GENERAL IN THE EAST AND THE NAM/GEM REGIONAL IN
THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG THE GULF COAST AS
A FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MOVES INLAND TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY
WEAKENS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ALONG THE COAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES FARTHER
INLAND WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS TURNAGAIN AND THOMPSON PASS. LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF AND CROSS BARRIER FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER MUCH THE BRISTOL BAY
AREA...AS THE FULLY OCCLUDED LOW WEAKENS AND LINGERS AROUND THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES
CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE WEAKENING LOW. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WILL HELP KEEP DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BRISTOL BAY AREA...EXCEPT FOR SOME
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY CAUSED BY UPSLOPING ALONG THE AHKLUN
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. DRIER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...BRINGING SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
THEIR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF
THE BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN...AS THE FULLY OCCLUDED LOW LINGERS
AROUND THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA AND SLOWLY WEAKENS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AND BRINGING IN AN AREA OF
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS HAS INCREASED
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN INSTABILITY SHOWERS FORMING OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...BRINGING MORE STRATIFORM RAINFALL AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE DIMINISHING LOW NEAR KODIAK WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST AND
BRING MORE RAIN TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST INTO TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...NOT MUCH OF THAT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT
THROUGH THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THE NEXT LOW WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
WESTERN BERING BY MONDAY AND THE MODELS ARE HAVING A MORE
DIFFICULT TIME WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR THE MOST PART THEY ARE
BRINGING UP A SECONDARY LOW THAT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS SOMETIME ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN ABSORBS THE WEAKENING
WEST BERING LOW. THAT IMPLIES A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
AS IT PUSHES EAST THAT SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.
THE OPERATIONAL EC THEN PUSHES THE LOW SOUTH INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC LATE ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE AND EC
ENSEMBLE BRING THE LOW CLOSER TO KODIAK. THE TRACK TOWARD KODIAK
WAS CHOSEN WHICH WOULD BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE
SOUTHCENTRAL FRIDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXAK68 PAFC 220436
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
736 PM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A FULLY OCCLUDED LOWER 960S SURFACE LOW WITH ACCOMPANYING UPPER
CENTER IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ALASKA PENINSULA. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS NW TOWARD THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. EASTERLY GALES WERE EVIDENT
ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN GULF WITH NE GALES OVER THE WESTERN GULF
AND BARREN ISLANDS. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WERE ALSO OBSERVED ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS. LOCALLY BRISK
GAP WINDS WERE ALSO EVIDENT ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AND THE DELTA.
RAIN WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN GULF AND IN THE PROXIMITY
OF THE LOW OVER THE AK PEN. TEMPERATURES CONTINUED MILD OVER
ACROSS THE GULF...SOUTHCENTRAL...SW ALASKA...WITH AFTERNOON VALUES
IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
THOUGH LINGERED IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION(SHORT TERM)...
MODELS CONTINUE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE STACKED LOW CONTINUING NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE 12Z NAM
WILL BE USED IN GENERAL IN THE EAST AND THE NAM/GEM REGIONAL IN
THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG THE GULF COAST AS
A FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MOVES INLAND TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY
WEAKENS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ALONG THE COAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES FARTHER
INLAND WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS TURNAGAIN AND THOMPSON PASS. LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF AND CROSS BARRIER FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER MUCH THE BRISTOL BAY
AREA...AS THE FULLY OCCLUDED LOW WEAKENS AND LINGERS AROUND THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES
CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE WEAKENING LOW. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WILL HELP KEEP DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BRISTOL BAY AREA...EXCEPT FOR SOME
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY CAUSED BY UPSLOPING ALONG THE AHKLUN
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. DRIER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...BRINGING SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
THEIR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF
THE BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN...AS THE FULLY OCCLUDED LOW LINGERS
AROUND THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA AND SLOWLY WEAKENS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AND BRINGING IN AN AREA OF
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS HAS INCREASED
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN INSTABILITY SHOWERS FORMING OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...BRINGING MORE STRATIFORM RAINFALL AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE DIMINISHING LOW NEAR KODIAK WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST AND
BRING MORE RAIN TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST INTO TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...NOT MUCH OF THAT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT
THROUGH THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THE NEXT LOW WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
WESTERN BERING BY MONDAY AND THE MODELS ARE HAVING A MORE
DIFFICULT TIME WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR THE MOST PART THEY ARE
BRINGING UP A SECONDARY LOW THAT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS SOMETIME ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN ABSORBS THE WEAKENING
WEST BERING LOW. THAT IMPLIES A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
AS IT PUSHES EAST THAT SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.
THE OPERATIONAL EC THEN PUSHES THE LOW SOUTH INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC LATE ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE AND EC
ENSEMBLE BRING THE LOW CLOSER TO KODIAK. THE TRACK TOWARD KODIAK
WAS CHOSEN WHICH WOULD BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE
SOUTHCENTRAL FRIDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXAK68 PAFC 211339
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
439 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR NOVEMBER 21TH MORNING AFD PACKAGE:

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN OCCLUDED GALE FORCE LOW IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF CHIGNIK. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED THROUGH THE BARREN ISLANDS
EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE ASCAT SCATTEROMETER
WINDS ARE SHOWING GALE FORCE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION. THE UPPER LEVELS HAVE A CLOSED
VERTICALLY STACKED LOWS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE THROUGHOUT
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA
REGION. THE RADAR IS SHOWING RAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COASTLINE SPREADING INLAND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL CONTINUES TO HAVE DOWNSLOPE DRYING DUE TO THE
CROSS BARRIER FLOW WITH SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS
ON THE RADAR. WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTAINS...THERE IS WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW WHICH IS PRODUCING SHOWERY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE BRISTOL
BAY AREA AND ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COASTLINE. THE SOUTHEAST
ALASKA AREA HAS AN NEGATIVE TILTED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING
INTO THE BROOKS RANGE WITH THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY EXTENDING INTO BARROW.


&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS IT CONTINUES TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS OF CHOICE WERE THE NAM/GEM-
REG THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH.


&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TODAY...REACHING
THE GULF COAST THIS EVENING THEN DISSIPATING. FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN CYCLONIC AND THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF SHOWERS OVER THE
GULF AND GULF COAST. LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR
THE INLAND VALLEYS TODAY...BUT CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE CROSS-BARRIER FLOW WEAKENS
AFTER THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN. NOT A
HUGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE LEFT BY THAT POINT...SO CHANCES ARE STILL
SMALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY RESIDES ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS. THE LOW HAS
WEAKENED SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST 12 HOURS...WITH ONLY PATCHES OF GALE
FORCE WINDS REMAINING ALONG THE COAST OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
ON THE SOUTH END OF THE LOW NEAR CHIRIKOF ISLAND. GUSTY WINDS TO
50 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BRISTOL BAY
AREA...GENERALLY THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES OF THE ALASKA RANGE.
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS A BIT AND BECOMES LESS FAVORABLY ORIENTED TO FORCE WINDS
THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED GAPS. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WILL CREATE
DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF THE BRISTOL BAY AREA...WHILE
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND THE AHKLUN MOUNTAINS WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL DROP CLOSER TO
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND BUT CONTINUE TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL
MEANDER WESTWARD SLIGHTLY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF
STRATIFORM RAINFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BECOMING MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE BY SUNDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BERING SEA...LEADING TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
MIX WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BERING SEA
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK A BIT OF A PATTERN CHANGE
IS IN STORE FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THE
CURRENT OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD WHILE WEAKENING AS THE FRONT WILL FALL APART OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. WAY TO THE WEST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEEDING OFF
THE WARM KUROSHIO CURRENT WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER WAVE COMING OFF
OF EAST ASIA. THE RESULT WILL BE A CLASSIC KAMCHATKA LOW WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGRESSING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THE REMNANTS OF
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM WILL GET PUSHED INTO THE GULF WITH ONLY
SHOWERY ACTIVITY REMAINING. GUIDANCE STRUGGLES WITH THE PATTERN
INTO MID-WEEK NAMELY WITH INDIVIDUAL WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
PARENT LONGWAVE AS WELL AS ANOTHER SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
THE MAIN FACET TO TAKE AWAY IS THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
SIGNALLING A REX BLOCK SETTING UP IN OUR VICINITY WHICH WOULD KEEP
SENSIBLE WEATHER DRY AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT SHOWERY CONDITIONS IN THE GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS INLAND ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 130 131 139 160 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...LUDWIG
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CLAY
LONG TERM...MTL




000
FXAK68 PAFC 211339
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
439 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR NOVEMBER 21TH MORNING AFD PACKAGE:

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN OCCLUDED GALE FORCE LOW IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF CHIGNIK. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED THROUGH THE BARREN ISLANDS
EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE ASCAT SCATTEROMETER
WINDS ARE SHOWING GALE FORCE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION. THE UPPER LEVELS HAVE A CLOSED
VERTICALLY STACKED LOWS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE THROUGHOUT
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA
REGION. THE RADAR IS SHOWING RAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COASTLINE SPREADING INLAND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL CONTINUES TO HAVE DOWNSLOPE DRYING DUE TO THE
CROSS BARRIER FLOW WITH SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS
ON THE RADAR. WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTAINS...THERE IS WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW WHICH IS PRODUCING SHOWERY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE BRISTOL
BAY AREA AND ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COASTLINE. THE SOUTHEAST
ALASKA AREA HAS AN NEGATIVE TILTED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING
INTO THE BROOKS RANGE WITH THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY EXTENDING INTO BARROW.


&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS IT CONTINUES TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS OF CHOICE WERE THE NAM/GEM-
REG THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH.


&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TODAY...REACHING
THE GULF COAST THIS EVENING THEN DISSIPATING. FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN CYCLONIC AND THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF SHOWERS OVER THE
GULF AND GULF COAST. LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR
THE INLAND VALLEYS TODAY...BUT CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE CROSS-BARRIER FLOW WEAKENS
AFTER THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN. NOT A
HUGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE LEFT BY THAT POINT...SO CHANCES ARE STILL
SMALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY RESIDES ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS. THE LOW HAS
WEAKENED SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST 12 HOURS...WITH ONLY PATCHES OF GALE
FORCE WINDS REMAINING ALONG THE COAST OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
ON THE SOUTH END OF THE LOW NEAR CHIRIKOF ISLAND. GUSTY WINDS TO
50 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BRISTOL BAY
AREA...GENERALLY THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES OF THE ALASKA RANGE.
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS A BIT AND BECOMES LESS FAVORABLY ORIENTED TO FORCE WINDS
THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED GAPS. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WILL CREATE
DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF THE BRISTOL BAY AREA...WHILE
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND THE AHKLUN MOUNTAINS WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL DROP CLOSER TO
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND BUT CONTINUE TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL
MEANDER WESTWARD SLIGHTLY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF
STRATIFORM RAINFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BECOMING MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE BY SUNDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BERING SEA...LEADING TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
MIX WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BERING SEA
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK A BIT OF A PATTERN CHANGE
IS IN STORE FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THE
CURRENT OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD WHILE WEAKENING AS THE FRONT WILL FALL APART OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. WAY TO THE WEST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEEDING OFF
THE WARM KUROSHIO CURRENT WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER WAVE COMING OFF
OF EAST ASIA. THE RESULT WILL BE A CLASSIC KAMCHATKA LOW WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGRESSING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THE REMNANTS OF
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM WILL GET PUSHED INTO THE GULF WITH ONLY
SHOWERY ACTIVITY REMAINING. GUIDANCE STRUGGLES WITH THE PATTERN
INTO MID-WEEK NAMELY WITH INDIVIDUAL WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
PARENT LONGWAVE AS WELL AS ANOTHER SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
THE MAIN FACET TO TAKE AWAY IS THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
SIGNALLING A REX BLOCK SETTING UP IN OUR VICINITY WHICH WOULD KEEP
SENSIBLE WEATHER DRY AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT SHOWERY CONDITIONS IN THE GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS INLAND ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 130 131 139 160 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...LUDWIG
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CLAY
LONG TERM...MTL





000
FXAK68 PAFC 210112
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
412 PM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD BUT RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS IN PLACE
OVER THE BERING SEA AND NORTHERN PACIFIC WITH PERSISTENT RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. A STRONG
160-180KT JET STREAM NEAR 45N IS FLOWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH. A QUICK LOOK AT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS ONE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE ALASKA PENINSULA FROM THE
SOUTH...CONTROLLING WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS STORM
INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE HELP FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG JET STREAM AND BOTTOMED OUT THIS MORNING
WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 950 MB. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG FRONT
IS IMPACTING KODIAK ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA
COASTLINE WITH STORM-FORCE WINDS AND YET ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAIN. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO BLOWING THROUGH THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND
INTO THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE BEFORE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW CENTER IN
THE FORM OF NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA.

FURTHER NORTH...LOW-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO KEEP
A CLASSIC DOWNSLOPE PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS UPPER COOK INLET. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD HOLD AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTENSIFY THIS EVENING AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND
BECOME MORE EASTERLY.

OUT WEST...COLD AIR IS BEGINNING TO ONCE AGAIN FILTER SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT. DRIVEN BY NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST...LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE PROCESSES ARE
LEADING TO PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BERING
SEA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAIRLY WARM AT THE SURFACE...SO PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN ALL ALONG THE ALEUTIANS
AS WELL AS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS NOT TERRIBLY SURPRISING GIVEN THE VERY
SLOW EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF THE MAJOR FEATURES DURING THE
PERIOD. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS (NAM AND GEM REGIONAL) ARE
FAVORED TODAY IN ORDER TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SUPERIOR
DEPICTION OF STRONG WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COMPLEX TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN ALASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH GULF COAST TONIGHT AND THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE COAST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS STRONG CROSS BARRIER FLOW KEEPS INLAND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL AK MOSTLY DRY. PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN ALTHOUGH SNOW MAY MIX IN AT TIMES AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS TURNAGAIN AND THOMPSON PASSES...WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE
GULF AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE
PORTAGE VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA
TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LOW IS BRINGING
UP WARM AIR WITH IT WHICH WILL KEEP THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS...ALASKA
PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY AREAS IN RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL BE
COLDER AND COULD SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE
WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH OVERRUNNING THE COLDER AIR IN THESE TWO
LOCATIONS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN TO BE MIXED
IN. BUT WITH THE LOW OVERALL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THERE SHOULD
BE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION AND THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT WITH NONE EXPECTED TOMORROW. OUT WEST NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ALEUTIANS THAT WILL START TO MIX WITH SNOW TOMORROW NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
DIFFERENCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE ALL
GENERALLY SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA
MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF
AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN REMAINS TO BE SEEN. A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA DURING THIS PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EASTWARD...AND WILL BRING A SERIES OF FRONTS NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE GULF/PACIFIC COASTAL AREAS. OTHER THAN PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA/GULF COAST...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR INLAND AREAS
UNTIL INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FLOW ARE IRONED OUT IN THE
COMING DAYS. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO GRADUALLY TREND BACK
TOWARD NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH NO BIG COLD SNAPS ON
THE HORIZON.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXAK68 PAFC 210112
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
412 PM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD BUT RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS IN PLACE
OVER THE BERING SEA AND NORTHERN PACIFIC WITH PERSISTENT RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. A STRONG
160-180KT JET STREAM NEAR 45N IS FLOWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH. A QUICK LOOK AT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS ONE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE ALASKA PENINSULA FROM THE
SOUTH...CONTROLLING WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS STORM
INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE HELP FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG JET STREAM AND BOTTOMED OUT THIS MORNING
WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 950 MB. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG FRONT
IS IMPACTING KODIAK ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA
COASTLINE WITH STORM-FORCE WINDS AND YET ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAIN. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO BLOWING THROUGH THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND
INTO THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE BEFORE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW CENTER IN
THE FORM OF NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA.

FURTHER NORTH...LOW-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO KEEP
A CLASSIC DOWNSLOPE PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS UPPER COOK INLET. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD HOLD AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTENSIFY THIS EVENING AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND
BECOME MORE EASTERLY.

OUT WEST...COLD AIR IS BEGINNING TO ONCE AGAIN FILTER SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT. DRIVEN BY NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST...LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE PROCESSES ARE
LEADING TO PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BERING
SEA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAIRLY WARM AT THE SURFACE...SO PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN ALL ALONG THE ALEUTIANS
AS WELL AS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS NOT TERRIBLY SURPRISING GIVEN THE VERY
SLOW EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF THE MAJOR FEATURES DURING THE
PERIOD. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS (NAM AND GEM REGIONAL) ARE
FAVORED TODAY IN ORDER TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SUPERIOR
DEPICTION OF STRONG WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COMPLEX TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN ALASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH GULF COAST TONIGHT AND THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE COAST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS STRONG CROSS BARRIER FLOW KEEPS INLAND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL AK MOSTLY DRY. PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN ALTHOUGH SNOW MAY MIX IN AT TIMES AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS TURNAGAIN AND THOMPSON PASSES...WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE
GULF AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE
PORTAGE VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA
TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LOW IS BRINGING
UP WARM AIR WITH IT WHICH WILL KEEP THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS...ALASKA
PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY AREAS IN RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL BE
COLDER AND COULD SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE
WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH OVERRUNNING THE COLDER AIR IN THESE TWO
LOCATIONS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN TO BE MIXED
IN. BUT WITH THE LOW OVERALL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THERE SHOULD
BE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION AND THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT WITH NONE EXPECTED TOMORROW. OUT WEST NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ALEUTIANS THAT WILL START TO MIX WITH SNOW TOMORROW NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
DIFFERENCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE ALL
GENERALLY SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA
MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF
AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN REMAINS TO BE SEEN. A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA DURING THIS PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EASTWARD...AND WILL BRING A SERIES OF FRONTS NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE GULF/PACIFIC COASTAL AREAS. OTHER THAN PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA/GULF COAST...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR INLAND AREAS
UNTIL INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FLOW ARE IRONED OUT IN THE
COMING DAYS. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO GRADUALLY TREND BACK
TOWARD NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH NO BIG COLD SNAPS ON
THE HORIZON.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXAK68 PAFC 201313
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
413 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

FOR NOVEMBER 20TH MORNING AFD PACKAGE:

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW IS LOCATED SOUTH OF
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS NEAR 52N 157W. THIS IS REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE WITH AN OCCLUDED STORM FORCE LOW WITH A BUOY REPORTING
THE LOW AT 951 MB THIS MORNING. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A
LARGE COMMA CLOUD OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS STREAMING OVER INTO
THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THE ASCAT SCATTEROMETER WINDS WERE SHOWING
A SWATH OF GALE FORCE WINDS HEADING INTO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS...WHILE STORM FORCE WINDS WERE SOUTH OF THE OCCLUDED
LOW. THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION HAS AN UPPER LEVEL WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA. THE RADAR IS SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WITH THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S EXCEPT
UPPER 20S THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THE NORTHERN GULF HAS AN
UPPER LEVEL WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH WITH THE RADAR
SHOWING SHOWERS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE EXTENDING INTO
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION. THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND THE EASTERN
KENAI IS DOWNSLOPE DRYING WITH ANY PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING OVER
THE CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STORM FORCE LOW TRACKING
JUST SOUTH OF SAND POINT THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NEAR SAND POINT BY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
DRIFTING BACK TO PACIFIC SIDE...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WITH THIS STORM FORCE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF THIS MORNING BEFORE TRACKING TO
THE NORTHERN GULF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHEAST
TO EAST STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE BARREN ISLANDS EXTENDING
TOWARD KAMISHAK BAY. THERE WILL BE GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE
EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA...EAST SIDE OF KODIAK ISLAND...SHELIKOF
STRAIT AND LOWER COOK INLET BEFORE DIMINISHING BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE GEM-REG/ECMWF WERE THE PREFERRED MODELS OF CHOICE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IS THE STRONG LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT. THE SURFACE LOW...AT ABOUT 953 MB THIS
MORNING...WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY AND REACH THE ALASKA PENINSULA
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN CROSS INTO THE BERING
SEA FRIDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...SLOWLY WEAKENING TO ABOUT 968 MB BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES SOUTHEAST FROM
KODIAK ISLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WINDS AND PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL
REACH STORM FORCE TODAY THROUGH THE BARREN ISLANDS...WITH GALES
OVER THE REST OF GULF AS WELL AS SHELIKOF STRAIT AND SOUTHERN COOK
INLET. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTH TONIGHT...ELONGATING
AND EVENTUALLY ORIENTED EAST/WEST BY FRIDAY MIDDAY. THE FRONT WILL
BASICALLY FALL APART AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST. VERY LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE INLAND VALLEYS DUE TO THE
ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT AND MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUES TO
PUSH NORTH TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THIS HAS LEAD
TO A SWATH OF GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
EASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
RISE ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE THIS
MORNING AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVES NORTH.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE SEEN ACROSS CHANNELED TERRAIN IN
THE ALASKA PENINSULA...WHILE GUSTS BETWEEN 50 TO 60 MPH WILL BE
SEEN THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND ALONG THE WESTERN
CAPES OF THE BRISTOL BAY AREA. RAIN (HEAVY AT TIMES) WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. FURTHER NORTH INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC LIFT REMAINING FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...

A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE NORTH OF ATKA WILL
DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A BULK OF THE ENERGY PHASES WITH THE
NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVING TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA. LARGE SCALE
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BERING SEA LEADING TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE BERING SEA. RAIN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW OVER THE BERING SEA UPSLOPES ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. BY
THE END OF THE WEEK...SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BERING SEA AS COLDER AIR FROM SIBERIA
BEGINS TO BE ADVECTED SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
BEYOND THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST WILL CENTER AROUND
THE REMNANTS OF THE CURRENT DEEP LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. BY THIS POINT THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING AND THE
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE HANGING AND STALLED AROUND THE
NORTH GULF COAST. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTH GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND. THERE
IS STILL SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INLAND OVER THE COOK INLET
REGION BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES AND
STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY WIND OVER THE KENAI/CHUGACH
MOUNTAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS AND SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE
GULF THROUGH MID-WEEK SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH. NORTHERLY
DOWN-INLET FLOW WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING INTO NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE IS
SIGNALLING A PATTERN CHANGE AS THIS SYSTEM DISSIPATES AND A
KAMCHATKA LOW SENDS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE BERING SEA.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN BUT EXACT LOW
POSITION AND FRONTAL PROGRESSION ARE STILL UNCLEAR. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE
SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES OVER THE MAINLAND BY
MID-WEEK. THERE IS MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THIS FRONT AS IT
PUSHES ACROSS THE BERING SEA.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 130 131.
         GALE 119 120 132 136 137 138 139 150 155 160 165 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...LUDWIG
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CLAY
LONG TERM...MTL




000
FXAK68 PAFC 201313
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
413 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

FOR NOVEMBER 20TH MORNING AFD PACKAGE:

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW IS LOCATED SOUTH OF
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS NEAR 52N 157W. THIS IS REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE WITH AN OCCLUDED STORM FORCE LOW WITH A BUOY REPORTING
THE LOW AT 951 MB THIS MORNING. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A
LARGE COMMA CLOUD OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS STREAMING OVER INTO
THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THE ASCAT SCATTEROMETER WINDS WERE SHOWING
A SWATH OF GALE FORCE WINDS HEADING INTO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS...WHILE STORM FORCE WINDS WERE SOUTH OF THE OCCLUDED
LOW. THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION HAS AN UPPER LEVEL WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA. THE RADAR IS SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WITH THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S EXCEPT
UPPER 20S THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THE NORTHERN GULF HAS AN
UPPER LEVEL WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH WITH THE RADAR
SHOWING SHOWERS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE EXTENDING INTO
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION. THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND THE EASTERN
KENAI IS DOWNSLOPE DRYING WITH ANY PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING OVER
THE CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STORM FORCE LOW TRACKING
JUST SOUTH OF SAND POINT THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NEAR SAND POINT BY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
DRIFTING BACK TO PACIFIC SIDE...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WITH THIS STORM FORCE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF THIS MORNING BEFORE TRACKING TO
THE NORTHERN GULF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHEAST
TO EAST STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE BARREN ISLANDS EXTENDING
TOWARD KAMISHAK BAY. THERE WILL BE GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE
EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA...EAST SIDE OF KODIAK ISLAND...SHELIKOF
STRAIT AND LOWER COOK INLET BEFORE DIMINISHING BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE GEM-REG/ECMWF WERE THE PREFERRED MODELS OF CHOICE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IS THE STRONG LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT. THE SURFACE LOW...AT ABOUT 953 MB THIS
MORNING...WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY AND REACH THE ALASKA PENINSULA
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN CROSS INTO THE BERING
SEA FRIDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...SLOWLY WEAKENING TO ABOUT 968 MB BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES SOUTHEAST FROM
KODIAK ISLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WINDS AND PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL
REACH STORM FORCE TODAY THROUGH THE BARREN ISLANDS...WITH GALES
OVER THE REST OF GULF AS WELL AS SHELIKOF STRAIT AND SOUTHERN COOK
INLET. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTH TONIGHT...ELONGATING
AND EVENTUALLY ORIENTED EAST/WEST BY FRIDAY MIDDAY. THE FRONT WILL
BASICALLY FALL APART AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST. VERY LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE INLAND VALLEYS DUE TO THE
ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT AND MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUES TO
PUSH NORTH TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THIS HAS LEAD
TO A SWATH OF GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
EASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
RISE ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE THIS
MORNING AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVES NORTH.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE SEEN ACROSS CHANNELED TERRAIN IN
THE ALASKA PENINSULA...WHILE GUSTS BETWEEN 50 TO 60 MPH WILL BE
SEEN THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND ALONG THE WESTERN
CAPES OF THE BRISTOL BAY AREA. RAIN (HEAVY AT TIMES) WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. FURTHER NORTH INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC LIFT REMAINING FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...

A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE NORTH OF ATKA WILL
DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A BULK OF THE ENERGY PHASES WITH THE
NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVING TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA. LARGE SCALE
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BERING SEA LEADING TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE BERING SEA. RAIN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW OVER THE BERING SEA UPSLOPES ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. BY
THE END OF THE WEEK...SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BERING SEA AS COLDER AIR FROM SIBERIA
BEGINS TO BE ADVECTED SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
BEYOND THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST WILL CENTER AROUND
THE REMNANTS OF THE CURRENT DEEP LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. BY THIS POINT THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING AND THE
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE HANGING AND STALLED AROUND THE
NORTH GULF COAST. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTH GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND. THERE
IS STILL SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INLAND OVER THE COOK INLET
REGION BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES AND
STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY WIND OVER THE KENAI/CHUGACH
MOUNTAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS AND SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE
GULF THROUGH MID-WEEK SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH. NORTHERLY
DOWN-INLET FLOW WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING INTO NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE IS
SIGNALLING A PATTERN CHANGE AS THIS SYSTEM DISSIPATES AND A
KAMCHATKA LOW SENDS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE BERING SEA.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN BUT EXACT LOW
POSITION AND FRONTAL PROGRESSION ARE STILL UNCLEAR. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE
SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES OVER THE MAINLAND BY
MID-WEEK. THERE IS MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THIS FRONT AS IT
PUSHES ACROSS THE BERING SEA.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 130 131.
         GALE 119 120 132 136 137 138 139 150 155 160 165 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...LUDWIG
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CLAY
LONG TERM...MTL





000
FXAK68 PAFC 200237
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
537 PM AKST WED NOV 19 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
LARGE ANCHOR LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN BERING
SEA WITH NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND. OVER THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY HAS BEEN FROM THE NORTHERN GULF
TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY...WHERE A STRENGTHENING DISTURBANCE HAS
BROUGHT RAIN TO AREAS NEAR SEA LEVEL NEAR ANCHORAGE AND WET SNOW
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 750 FEET ELEVATION. THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE MAT-SU VALLEY SOUTHEAST
THROUGH PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT AREA OF INTEREST RESIDES WITH LOW PRESSURE
THAT IS JUST FINISHING RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY TO
A LOCATION ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT...THEN DRIFT
NORTH AND THEN WEST NEAR OR OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
ONE AREA OF DISAGREEMENT RESIDES IN WHERE EXACTLY TO STALL OUT THE
STRENGTHENING LOW CURRENTLY WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. IT SEEMS
AS THOUGH ALL MODELS NOW STALL THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALASKA
PENINSULA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THEN DRIFT IT WEST ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN BERING SEA BEFORE LOOPING BACK TO THE SOUTH OF
THE PENINSULA AND DRIFTING EAST OR NORTHEAST. THE ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF THU AND THEN REACH THE
NORTHERN GULF BY FRI AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH MOVED THROUGH ANCHORAGE
AND THE MAT-SU TODAY WILL RAPIDLY EXIT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF CLEAR SKIES BETWEEN THIS
DISTURBANCE AND ANOTHER ONE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO ROLL BACK IN. THUS...ANY LIQUID ON THE
ROADS WILL FREEZE BACK UP.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE GULF LOOKS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN
THE ONE WHICH MOVED THROUGH TODAY. THE MORE IMPORTANT DISTINCTION
HOWEVER IS THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK OUT AHEAD OF THE
DEEP LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AS IT CURVES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT. THIS SHIFT IN FLOW WILL CONFINE THE BULK
OF PRECIP TO UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE KENAI PENINSULA AND THE WEST
SIDE OF COOK INLET.

THE DEEP LOW MOVING TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL PRIMARILY
AFFECT THE GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND. THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE GULF AND THUS HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL IN THE
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND/KENAI PENINSULA AREAS. NOT ONLY WILL THE LOW
STALL ALONG THE AKPENN...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL BE SPLIT WITH SOME ENERGY HEADED WESTWARD AROUND THE
LOW CENTER AND SOME SHOOTING EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
THIS TYPE OF FLOW LEADS TO A SLOWING AND WEAKENING FRONT AS IT
ELONGATES UNDER THE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THE FORECASTS TOWARD A MORE SOUTHERLY
POSITION OF THE FRONT AND CONFINED PRECIP PRIMARILY TO WESTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE KENAI PENINSULA.

LACKING ANY WIND OR LOW CLOUDS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL...A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
AS ONE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN BERING WEAKENS A NEW LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS NEW LOW WILL START TO BRING
STRONGER WINDS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT AND TO THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA AND ALEUTIAN RANGE TOMORROW. THE STRONGER WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WILL
STILL LAST INTO FRIDAY. BOTH LOWS WILL ALSO BRING WITH THEM RAIN
TO THE ALEUTIANS AND IN THE BRISTOL BAY AREA. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER VALLEY. OUT WEST
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

MODELS HAVE REALLY COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD IN THE PAST DAY OR SO...WITH THE LOW
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT WEAKENS OVER/NEAR THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES AT THIS
POINT...BUT THERE WILL BE A GENERAL IMPROVING TREND TO THE WEATHER
DURING THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OVER THE WESTERN US THIS WEEK...MORE
ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND GULF OF ALASKA. THIS
WILL BRING A TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE WEAKENED LOW GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES IN FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 150 155 160 165
180 351 352 FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...MBS




000
FXAK68 PAFC 200237
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
537 PM AKST WED NOV 19 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
LARGE ANCHOR LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN BERING
SEA WITH NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND. OVER THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY HAS BEEN FROM THE NORTHERN GULF
TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY...WHERE A STRENGTHENING DISTURBANCE HAS
BROUGHT RAIN TO AREAS NEAR SEA LEVEL NEAR ANCHORAGE AND WET SNOW
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 750 FEET ELEVATION. THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE MAT-SU VALLEY SOUTHEAST
THROUGH PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT AREA OF INTEREST RESIDES WITH LOW PRESSURE
THAT IS JUST FINISHING RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY TO
A LOCATION ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT...THEN DRIFT
NORTH AND THEN WEST NEAR OR OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
ONE AREA OF DISAGREEMENT RESIDES IN WHERE EXACTLY TO STALL OUT THE
STRENGTHENING LOW CURRENTLY WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. IT SEEMS
AS THOUGH ALL MODELS NOW STALL THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALASKA
PENINSULA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THEN DRIFT IT WEST ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN BERING SEA BEFORE LOOPING BACK TO THE SOUTH OF
THE PENINSULA AND DRIFTING EAST OR NORTHEAST. THE ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF THU AND THEN REACH THE
NORTHERN GULF BY FRI AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH MOVED THROUGH ANCHORAGE
AND THE MAT-SU TODAY WILL RAPIDLY EXIT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF CLEAR SKIES BETWEEN THIS
DISTURBANCE AND ANOTHER ONE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO ROLL BACK IN. THUS...ANY LIQUID ON THE
ROADS WILL FREEZE BACK UP.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE GULF LOOKS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN
THE ONE WHICH MOVED THROUGH TODAY. THE MORE IMPORTANT DISTINCTION
HOWEVER IS THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK OUT AHEAD OF THE
DEEP LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AS IT CURVES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT. THIS SHIFT IN FLOW WILL CONFINE THE BULK
OF PRECIP TO UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE KENAI PENINSULA AND THE WEST
SIDE OF COOK INLET.

THE DEEP LOW MOVING TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL PRIMARILY
AFFECT THE GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND. THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE GULF AND THUS HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL IN THE
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND/KENAI PENINSULA AREAS. NOT ONLY WILL THE LOW
STALL ALONG THE AKPENN...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL BE SPLIT WITH SOME ENERGY HEADED WESTWARD AROUND THE
LOW CENTER AND SOME SHOOTING EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
THIS TYPE OF FLOW LEADS TO A SLOWING AND WEAKENING FRONT AS IT
ELONGATES UNDER THE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THE FORECASTS TOWARD A MORE SOUTHERLY
POSITION OF THE FRONT AND CONFINED PRECIP PRIMARILY TO WESTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE KENAI PENINSULA.

LACKING ANY WIND OR LOW CLOUDS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL...A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
AS ONE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN BERING WEAKENS A NEW LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS NEW LOW WILL START TO BRING
STRONGER WINDS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT AND TO THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA AND ALEUTIAN RANGE TOMORROW. THE STRONGER WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WILL
STILL LAST INTO FRIDAY. BOTH LOWS WILL ALSO BRING WITH THEM RAIN
TO THE ALEUTIANS AND IN THE BRISTOL BAY AREA. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER VALLEY. OUT WEST
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

MODELS HAVE REALLY COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD IN THE PAST DAY OR SO...WITH THE LOW
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT WEAKENS OVER/NEAR THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES AT THIS
POINT...BUT THERE WILL BE A GENERAL IMPROVING TREND TO THE WEATHER
DURING THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OVER THE WESTERN US THIS WEEK...MORE
ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND GULF OF ALASKA. THIS
WILL BRING A TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE WEAKENED LOW GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES IN FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 150 155 160 165
180 351 352 FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...MBS





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