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000
FXAK68 PAFC 041248
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
448 AM AKDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.ANALYSIS...
UPPER LEVELS... THE CLOSED HIGH PRESSURE AT 500 MB REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN SIBERIAN AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITIONED NEAR
HOOPER BAY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM THERE IS A CLOSED LOW JUST NORTH
OF ADAK WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTAINS. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE
IS REFLECT AT THE SURFACE WITH A 997 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS JUST
SOUTH OF ADAK AND ANOTHER 997 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE DUTCH HARBOR
AREA. THESE SYSTEMS ARE GETTING SUPPORT FROM A STRONG 130 KNOT
NORTHWESTERLY MERIDIONAL JET STREAK LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ALEUTIANS STREAMING
INTO THE BERING SEA. A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS...SOUTHERN PORTION OF ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE LOWER
SOUTHWESTERN GULF REGION THIS MORNING. WHILE...THE EASTERN GULF
THROUGH THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS RIDGE IS POSITIONED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA EXTENDING INTO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AREA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEY MERGE THE TWO NORTH PACIFIC LOWS OVER THE CENTRAL
TO EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS ONE LOW BY SATURDAY. WHILE...ANOTHER
NORTH PACIFIC LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL TRACK NORTHWARD AND
PHASE IN WITH THE PREVIOUS LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE CHAIN INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA BY MONDAY. WHILE...THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF WILL BEGIN TO REGRESS AND THEN RETROGRADES
BACK OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THE NAM WAS THE PREFERRED MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE
HANDLING OF THE SYNOPTIC DETAILS. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION WILL HAVE WETTING RAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEATHER FRONT THIS MORNING. THE
RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A BAND OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA TRACKING NORTHWARD. ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL BE GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE HUMIDITIES WILL
REBOUND NICELY WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION WILL HAVE THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY REGRESS GIVING WAY TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE
WEATHER FRONT IN THE LOWER SOUTHWESTERN GULF THIS MORNING. THE
MOISTURE WILL TRACK FROM KODIAK ISLAND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND
UP THROUGH THE COOK INLET BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL STRENGTHEN AND THERE WILL GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
BARREN ISLANDS EASTWARD. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED BY MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS IN THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL
BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION BY MONDAY HELPING THE HUMIDITIES TO
REBOUND. LOOK FOR GUSTY GAP WINDS ALONG THE TURNAGAIN ARM...KNIK
RIVER VALLEY AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. LOOK FOR THE SAME SCENARIO
FOR THE WINDS ON MONDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SYNOPTIC
WEATHER FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAK FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE GULF AND MAKING ITS WAY TO THE
KENAI PENINSULA. BY THE AFTERNOON IT WILL MAKE IT INTO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND THEN PUSH INLAND. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF THE
RAIN WILL STAY ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH THE LEE SIDE OF THE
COASTAL RANGES SEEING DOWNSLOPING. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAT DOES MAKE IT INTO THE MORE INLAND LOCATIONS
PRIMARILY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THEN ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN OVER THE AREA BRINGING SOME CLEARER SKIES TO THE
SOUTHCENTRAL WHILE KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN DOWN BY
KODIAK AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KENAI PENINSULA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO IMPACT SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS
MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO BRISTOL BAY
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD TO THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE THE HIGHEST ALONG THE USUAL
UPSLOPE TERRAIN FEATURES WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING ON THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE KILBUCKS AND ALEUTIAN RANGES. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF
INTO A MIX OF STRATIFORM RAIN AND SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF BRISTOL BAY ON SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE FOLLOWING THE SAME PATH AS TODAYS FRONT.

THERE IS A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THESE SYSTEMS WITH THE NAFES
ENSEMBLE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING MORE THAN THREE
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS...
COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE UPPER LEVELS...WILL
LEAD TO AREAS OF MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOUNTAIN AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
DILLINGHAM. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
SECOND FRONT ON SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION. THE STRONGEST GUSTS
WILL BE AROUND THE KAMISHAK GAP AND ALONG THE WESTERN CAPES OF
BRISTOL BAY NORTHWARD ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM COAST AS GALE FORCE
WINDS DEVELOP SUNDAY OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT
WINDS TO DECREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTS TO IMPACT THE REGION IS CURRENTLY PUSHING
ENTERING THE THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL BERING
SEA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE SECOND FRONT MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THESE SYSTEMS...SO AS WITH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF MODERATE TO
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. EXPECT THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS ALONG THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ISLANDS
AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA WHERE THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SECOND FRONT ON SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF
UNALASKA. WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY
BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND
INTO THE BERING LATE SUNDAY WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN
THAT AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST MONDAY BEFORE
BREAKING DOWN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS
COULD GET FAIRLY STRONG MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE SURFACE RIDGING AND ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF COINCIDES WITH DIURNAL HEATING INLAND AND A SHIFTING
OF THE THERMAL TROUGH FURTHER NORTH IN INTERIOR ALASKA. THE LARGER
CHANNELED AREAS SUCH AS TURNAGAIN ARM...THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY AND
COPPER RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS HOWEVER
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN MANY OF THE SMALLER
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST RUNNING VALLEYS AS WELL.

INITIALLY THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE
INCOMING BERING FRONTAL SYSTEMS CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND THEN FLATTENS...PRECIPITATION
AND COOLER WEATHER WILL BE ABLE TO SPREAD FURTHER EAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE LOW OVER THE BERING WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA TO BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 130 131 138 150 160 165 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PLD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...JR





000
FXAK68 PAFC 041248
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
448 AM AKDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.ANALYSIS...
UPPER LEVELS... THE CLOSED HIGH PRESSURE AT 500 MB REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN SIBERIAN AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITIONED NEAR
HOOPER BAY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM THERE IS A CLOSED LOW JUST NORTH
OF ADAK WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTAINS. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE
IS REFLECT AT THE SURFACE WITH A 997 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS JUST
SOUTH OF ADAK AND ANOTHER 997 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE DUTCH HARBOR
AREA. THESE SYSTEMS ARE GETTING SUPPORT FROM A STRONG 130 KNOT
NORTHWESTERLY MERIDIONAL JET STREAK LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ALEUTIANS STREAMING
INTO THE BERING SEA. A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS...SOUTHERN PORTION OF ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE LOWER
SOUTHWESTERN GULF REGION THIS MORNING. WHILE...THE EASTERN GULF
THROUGH THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS RIDGE IS POSITIONED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA EXTENDING INTO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AREA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEY MERGE THE TWO NORTH PACIFIC LOWS OVER THE CENTRAL
TO EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS ONE LOW BY SATURDAY. WHILE...ANOTHER
NORTH PACIFIC LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL TRACK NORTHWARD AND
PHASE IN WITH THE PREVIOUS LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE CHAIN INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA BY MONDAY. WHILE...THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF WILL BEGIN TO REGRESS AND THEN RETROGRADES
BACK OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THE NAM WAS THE PREFERRED MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE
HANDLING OF THE SYNOPTIC DETAILS. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION WILL HAVE WETTING RAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEATHER FRONT THIS MORNING. THE
RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A BAND OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA TRACKING NORTHWARD. ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL BE GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE HUMIDITIES WILL
REBOUND NICELY WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION WILL HAVE THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY REGRESS GIVING WAY TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE
WEATHER FRONT IN THE LOWER SOUTHWESTERN GULF THIS MORNING. THE
MOISTURE WILL TRACK FROM KODIAK ISLAND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND
UP THROUGH THE COOK INLET BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL STRENGTHEN AND THERE WILL GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
BARREN ISLANDS EASTWARD. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED BY MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS IN THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL
BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION BY MONDAY HELPING THE HUMIDITIES TO
REBOUND. LOOK FOR GUSTY GAP WINDS ALONG THE TURNAGAIN ARM...KNIK
RIVER VALLEY AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. LOOK FOR THE SAME SCENARIO
FOR THE WINDS ON MONDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SYNOPTIC
WEATHER FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAK FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE GULF AND MAKING ITS WAY TO THE
KENAI PENINSULA. BY THE AFTERNOON IT WILL MAKE IT INTO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND THEN PUSH INLAND. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF THE
RAIN WILL STAY ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH THE LEE SIDE OF THE
COASTAL RANGES SEEING DOWNSLOPING. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAT DOES MAKE IT INTO THE MORE INLAND LOCATIONS
PRIMARILY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THEN ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN OVER THE AREA BRINGING SOME CLEARER SKIES TO THE
SOUTHCENTRAL WHILE KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN DOWN BY
KODIAK AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KENAI PENINSULA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO IMPACT SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS
MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO BRISTOL BAY
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD TO THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE THE HIGHEST ALONG THE USUAL
UPSLOPE TERRAIN FEATURES WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING ON THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE KILBUCKS AND ALEUTIAN RANGES. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF
INTO A MIX OF STRATIFORM RAIN AND SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF BRISTOL BAY ON SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE FOLLOWING THE SAME PATH AS TODAYS FRONT.

THERE IS A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THESE SYSTEMS WITH THE NAFES
ENSEMBLE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING MORE THAN THREE
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS...
COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE UPPER LEVELS...WILL
LEAD TO AREAS OF MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOUNTAIN AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
DILLINGHAM. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
SECOND FRONT ON SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION. THE STRONGEST GUSTS
WILL BE AROUND THE KAMISHAK GAP AND ALONG THE WESTERN CAPES OF
BRISTOL BAY NORTHWARD ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM COAST AS GALE FORCE
WINDS DEVELOP SUNDAY OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT
WINDS TO DECREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTS TO IMPACT THE REGION IS CURRENTLY PUSHING
ENTERING THE THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL BERING
SEA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE SECOND FRONT MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THESE SYSTEMS...SO AS WITH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF MODERATE TO
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. EXPECT THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS ALONG THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ISLANDS
AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA WHERE THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SECOND FRONT ON SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF
UNALASKA. WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY
BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND
INTO THE BERING LATE SUNDAY WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN
THAT AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST MONDAY BEFORE
BREAKING DOWN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS
COULD GET FAIRLY STRONG MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE SURFACE RIDGING AND ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF COINCIDES WITH DIURNAL HEATING INLAND AND A SHIFTING
OF THE THERMAL TROUGH FURTHER NORTH IN INTERIOR ALASKA. THE LARGER
CHANNELED AREAS SUCH AS TURNAGAIN ARM...THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY AND
COPPER RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS HOWEVER
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN MANY OF THE SMALLER
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST RUNNING VALLEYS AS WELL.

INITIALLY THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE
INCOMING BERING FRONTAL SYSTEMS CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND THEN FLATTENS...PRECIPITATION
AND COOLER WEATHER WILL BE ABLE TO SPREAD FURTHER EAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE LOW OVER THE BERING WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA TO BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 130 131 138 150 160 165 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PLD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...JR




000
FXAK68 PAFC 041248
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
448 AM AKDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.ANALYSIS...
UPPER LEVELS... THE CLOSED HIGH PRESSURE AT 500 MB REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN SIBERIAN AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITIONED NEAR
HOOPER BAY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM THERE IS A CLOSED LOW JUST NORTH
OF ADAK WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTAINS. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE
IS REFLECT AT THE SURFACE WITH A 997 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS JUST
SOUTH OF ADAK AND ANOTHER 997 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE DUTCH HARBOR
AREA. THESE SYSTEMS ARE GETTING SUPPORT FROM A STRONG 130 KNOT
NORTHWESTERLY MERIDIONAL JET STREAK LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ALEUTIANS STREAMING
INTO THE BERING SEA. A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS...SOUTHERN PORTION OF ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE LOWER
SOUTHWESTERN GULF REGION THIS MORNING. WHILE...THE EASTERN GULF
THROUGH THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS RIDGE IS POSITIONED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA EXTENDING INTO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AREA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEY MERGE THE TWO NORTH PACIFIC LOWS OVER THE CENTRAL
TO EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS ONE LOW BY SATURDAY. WHILE...ANOTHER
NORTH PACIFIC LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL TRACK NORTHWARD AND
PHASE IN WITH THE PREVIOUS LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE CHAIN INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA BY MONDAY. WHILE...THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF WILL BEGIN TO REGRESS AND THEN RETROGRADES
BACK OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THE NAM WAS THE PREFERRED MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE
HANDLING OF THE SYNOPTIC DETAILS. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION WILL HAVE WETTING RAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEATHER FRONT THIS MORNING. THE
RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A BAND OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA TRACKING NORTHWARD. ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL BE GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE HUMIDITIES WILL
REBOUND NICELY WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION WILL HAVE THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY REGRESS GIVING WAY TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE
WEATHER FRONT IN THE LOWER SOUTHWESTERN GULF THIS MORNING. THE
MOISTURE WILL TRACK FROM KODIAK ISLAND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND
UP THROUGH THE COOK INLET BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL STRENGTHEN AND THERE WILL GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
BARREN ISLANDS EASTWARD. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED BY MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS IN THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL
BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION BY MONDAY HELPING THE HUMIDITIES TO
REBOUND. LOOK FOR GUSTY GAP WINDS ALONG THE TURNAGAIN ARM...KNIK
RIVER VALLEY AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. LOOK FOR THE SAME SCENARIO
FOR THE WINDS ON MONDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SYNOPTIC
WEATHER FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAK FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE GULF AND MAKING ITS WAY TO THE
KENAI PENINSULA. BY THE AFTERNOON IT WILL MAKE IT INTO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND THEN PUSH INLAND. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF THE
RAIN WILL STAY ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH THE LEE SIDE OF THE
COASTAL RANGES SEEING DOWNSLOPING. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAT DOES MAKE IT INTO THE MORE INLAND LOCATIONS
PRIMARILY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THEN ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN OVER THE AREA BRINGING SOME CLEARER SKIES TO THE
SOUTHCENTRAL WHILE KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN DOWN BY
KODIAK AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KENAI PENINSULA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO IMPACT SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS
MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO BRISTOL BAY
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD TO THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE THE HIGHEST ALONG THE USUAL
UPSLOPE TERRAIN FEATURES WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING ON THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE KILBUCKS AND ALEUTIAN RANGES. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF
INTO A MIX OF STRATIFORM RAIN AND SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF BRISTOL BAY ON SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE FOLLOWING THE SAME PATH AS TODAYS FRONT.

THERE IS A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THESE SYSTEMS WITH THE NAFES
ENSEMBLE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING MORE THAN THREE
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS...
COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE UPPER LEVELS...WILL
LEAD TO AREAS OF MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOUNTAIN AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
DILLINGHAM. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
SECOND FRONT ON SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION. THE STRONGEST GUSTS
WILL BE AROUND THE KAMISHAK GAP AND ALONG THE WESTERN CAPES OF
BRISTOL BAY NORTHWARD ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM COAST AS GALE FORCE
WINDS DEVELOP SUNDAY OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT
WINDS TO DECREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTS TO IMPACT THE REGION IS CURRENTLY PUSHING
ENTERING THE THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL BERING
SEA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE SECOND FRONT MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THESE SYSTEMS...SO AS WITH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF MODERATE TO
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. EXPECT THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS ALONG THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ISLANDS
AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA WHERE THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SECOND FRONT ON SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF
UNALASKA. WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY
BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND
INTO THE BERING LATE SUNDAY WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN
THAT AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST MONDAY BEFORE
BREAKING DOWN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS
COULD GET FAIRLY STRONG MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE SURFACE RIDGING AND ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF COINCIDES WITH DIURNAL HEATING INLAND AND A SHIFTING
OF THE THERMAL TROUGH FURTHER NORTH IN INTERIOR ALASKA. THE LARGER
CHANNELED AREAS SUCH AS TURNAGAIN ARM...THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY AND
COPPER RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS HOWEVER
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN MANY OF THE SMALLER
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST RUNNING VALLEYS AS WELL.

INITIALLY THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE
INCOMING BERING FRONTAL SYSTEMS CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND THEN FLATTENS...PRECIPITATION
AND COOLER WEATHER WILL BE ABLE TO SPREAD FURTHER EAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE LOW OVER THE BERING WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA TO BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 130 131 138 150 160 165 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PLD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...JR




000
FXAK68 PAFC 041248
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
448 AM AKDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.ANALYSIS...
UPPER LEVELS... THE CLOSED HIGH PRESSURE AT 500 MB REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN SIBERIAN AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITIONED NEAR
HOOPER BAY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM THERE IS A CLOSED LOW JUST NORTH
OF ADAK WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTAINS. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE
IS REFLECT AT THE SURFACE WITH A 997 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS JUST
SOUTH OF ADAK AND ANOTHER 997 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE DUTCH HARBOR
AREA. THESE SYSTEMS ARE GETTING SUPPORT FROM A STRONG 130 KNOT
NORTHWESTERLY MERIDIONAL JET STREAK LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ALEUTIANS STREAMING
INTO THE BERING SEA. A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS...SOUTHERN PORTION OF ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE LOWER
SOUTHWESTERN GULF REGION THIS MORNING. WHILE...THE EASTERN GULF
THROUGH THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS RIDGE IS POSITIONED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA EXTENDING INTO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AREA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEY MERGE THE TWO NORTH PACIFIC LOWS OVER THE CENTRAL
TO EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS ONE LOW BY SATURDAY. WHILE...ANOTHER
NORTH PACIFIC LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL TRACK NORTHWARD AND
PHASE IN WITH THE PREVIOUS LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE CHAIN INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA BY MONDAY. WHILE...THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF WILL BEGIN TO REGRESS AND THEN RETROGRADES
BACK OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THE NAM WAS THE PREFERRED MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE
HANDLING OF THE SYNOPTIC DETAILS. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION WILL HAVE WETTING RAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEATHER FRONT THIS MORNING. THE
RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A BAND OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA TRACKING NORTHWARD. ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL BE GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE HUMIDITIES WILL
REBOUND NICELY WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION WILL HAVE THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY REGRESS GIVING WAY TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE
WEATHER FRONT IN THE LOWER SOUTHWESTERN GULF THIS MORNING. THE
MOISTURE WILL TRACK FROM KODIAK ISLAND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND
UP THROUGH THE COOK INLET BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL STRENGTHEN AND THERE WILL GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
BARREN ISLANDS EASTWARD. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED BY MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS IN THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL
BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION BY MONDAY HELPING THE HUMIDITIES TO
REBOUND. LOOK FOR GUSTY GAP WINDS ALONG THE TURNAGAIN ARM...KNIK
RIVER VALLEY AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. LOOK FOR THE SAME SCENARIO
FOR THE WINDS ON MONDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SYNOPTIC
WEATHER FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAK FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE GULF AND MAKING ITS WAY TO THE
KENAI PENINSULA. BY THE AFTERNOON IT WILL MAKE IT INTO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND THEN PUSH INLAND. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF THE
RAIN WILL STAY ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH THE LEE SIDE OF THE
COASTAL RANGES SEEING DOWNSLOPING. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAT DOES MAKE IT INTO THE MORE INLAND LOCATIONS
PRIMARILY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THEN ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN OVER THE AREA BRINGING SOME CLEARER SKIES TO THE
SOUTHCENTRAL WHILE KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN DOWN BY
KODIAK AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KENAI PENINSULA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO IMPACT SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS
MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO BRISTOL BAY
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD TO THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE THE HIGHEST ALONG THE USUAL
UPSLOPE TERRAIN FEATURES WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING ON THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE KILBUCKS AND ALEUTIAN RANGES. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF
INTO A MIX OF STRATIFORM RAIN AND SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF BRISTOL BAY ON SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE FOLLOWING THE SAME PATH AS TODAYS FRONT.

THERE IS A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THESE SYSTEMS WITH THE NAFES
ENSEMBLE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING MORE THAN THREE
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS...
COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE UPPER LEVELS...WILL
LEAD TO AREAS OF MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOUNTAIN AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
DILLINGHAM. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
SECOND FRONT ON SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION. THE STRONGEST GUSTS
WILL BE AROUND THE KAMISHAK GAP AND ALONG THE WESTERN CAPES OF
BRISTOL BAY NORTHWARD ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM COAST AS GALE FORCE
WINDS DEVELOP SUNDAY OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT
WINDS TO DECREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTS TO IMPACT THE REGION IS CURRENTLY PUSHING
ENTERING THE THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL BERING
SEA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE SECOND FRONT MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THESE SYSTEMS...SO AS WITH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF MODERATE TO
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. EXPECT THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS ALONG THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ISLANDS
AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA WHERE THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SECOND FRONT ON SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF
UNALASKA. WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY
BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND
INTO THE BERING LATE SUNDAY WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN
THAT AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST MONDAY BEFORE
BREAKING DOWN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS
COULD GET FAIRLY STRONG MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE SURFACE RIDGING AND ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF COINCIDES WITH DIURNAL HEATING INLAND AND A SHIFTING
OF THE THERMAL TROUGH FURTHER NORTH IN INTERIOR ALASKA. THE LARGER
CHANNELED AREAS SUCH AS TURNAGAIN ARM...THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY AND
COPPER RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS HOWEVER
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN MANY OF THE SMALLER
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST RUNNING VALLEYS AS WELL.

INITIALLY THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE
INCOMING BERING FRONTAL SYSTEMS CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND THEN FLATTENS...PRECIPITATION
AND COOLER WEATHER WILL BE ABLE TO SPREAD FURTHER EAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE LOW OVER THE BERING WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA TO BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 130 131 138 150 160 165 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PLD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...JR





000
FXAK68 PAFC 040013
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
413 PM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.ANALYSIS...

UPPER LEVELS...
A FAIRLY COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR NORTON SOUND IS
KEEPING ALL AREAS FROM BETHEL NORTH SOCKED IN CLOUDS AND LIMITING
INSTABILITY. SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE...RIDGING IS KEEPING SKIES
MAINLY CLEAR...ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO INCREASE AS INDICATED BY
THE DEVELOPING CUMULUS FIELD FROM NORTH OF DILLINGHAM UP INTO THE
SOUTHERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THE LOW DIGGING SOUTHWARD MAY PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
THIS REGION. A MUCH LARGER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. A DIGGING TROUGH ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS
LOW IS TAPPING TROPICAL MOISTURE....WHICH IS STREAMING NORTHWARD
TOWARD SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN BERING AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND OVER THE COMING DAYS.

SURFACE...
THE MOST NOTABLE FEATURE AT THE SURFACE IS A 998 MB LOW SOUTH OF
DUTCH HARBOR THAT IS FEEDING OFF THE INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
BRINGING VERY WET WEATHER TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE
SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MARKING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD
MAINLAND ALASKA. OVER SOUTHCENTRAL...THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND
ONLY SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE (AS INDICATED BY THE 12Z ANCHORAGE SOUNDING).
THUS WOULD EXPECT ANY SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALL SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED FASTER AND A BIT
STRONGER WITH THE WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AS IT TRACKS
NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY PREFER THE NAM SOLUTION FOR GOOD HANDLING OF THE DETAILS.
IT IS THE FASTEST WITH ARRIVAL OF RAIN IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
SATURDAY...SO WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING THAN THE NAM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BE ON THE RECEIVING END OF MUCH OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC AS THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EXPECT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS AS UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS
MOVE THROUGH. THE SURFACE FRONTS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL GENERALLY BE WET THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH COULD AFFECT BEHAVIOR OF
EXISTING FIRES. THE PREVAILING FLOW WITH EACH OF THESE WILL BE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

THE FRONT MOVING UP FROM THE PACIFIC WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT
HEADS INLAND ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SO EXPECT WETTING RAINS TO BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
ZONE. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THE THERMAL TROUGH ALL THE WAY NORTH
OF THE ALASKA RANGE USHERING IN MUCH MORE STABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION. A RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON SUNDAY LEADING
TO A RETURN TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE HIGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS FROM THE EASTERN GULF TO THE NORTH GULF COAST...
UNDERGOING FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH AS THE VARIOUS FRONTS MOVE
THROUGH. THIS RIDGE WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AS THE SURFACE FRONTS
NEAR...WHICH WILL BE SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY. EXPECT
STRONG GUSTY GAP WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THROUGH THE USUAL PLACES (TURNAGAIN ARM/KNIK RIVER VALLEY/COPPER
RIVER).

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE ALASKA RANGE AND TALKEETNA
MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER
COASTAL AREAS...PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY...WHILE ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
WILL SLIP ACROSS THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO SPREAD OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SUSITNA VALLEY...SO
DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROVIDE THE MECHANISM TO TRIGGER A FEW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS THIS WEEKEND. AS THE
FRONT MOVES INLAND...GUSTY CHANNELED FLOW WILL INCREASE TO STRONG
WIND CRITERIA THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM ON SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY
WEAKER GUSTS THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER AND OUT OF KNIK ARM. THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A NICE EVENING IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE MAINLAND AS THE AREA
LIES BETWEEN A SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND AN APPROACHING FRONT FROM
THE SOUTH. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING IS
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND VALLEY WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING.
TONIGHT A FRONT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...SPREADING RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND ON SATURDAY.
SOME GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT TOMORROW
MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST BEING THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA/ALEUTIAN RANGE. A SHORT BREAK HAPPENS ON LATE
SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM WEST TO EAST WILL
PROGRESS NORTHWARD TONIGHT STALLING OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. YET
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS ON SUNDAY CONTINUING THE WET AND ACTIVE PATTERN. EXPECT
AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE NORTHEASTERN BERING SEA WITH VISIBILITY
REDUCED TO ONE MILE OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND
INTO THE BERING LATE SUNDAY WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN
THAT AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST MONDAY BEFORE
BREAKING DOWN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS
COULD GET FAIRLY STRONG MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE SURFACE RIDGING AND ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF COINCIDES WITH DIURNAL HEATING INLAND AND A SHIFTING
OF THE THERMAL TROUGH FURTHER NORTH IN INTERIOR ALASKA. THE LARGER
CHANNELED AREAS SUCH AS TURNAGAIN ARM...THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY AND
COPPER RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS HOWEVER
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN MANY OF THE SMALLER
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST RUNNING VALLEYS AS WELL.

INITIALLY THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE
INCOMING BERING FRONTAL SYSTEMS CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND THEN FLATTENS...PRECIPITATION
AND COOLER WEATHER WILL BE ABLE TO SPREAD FURTHER EAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE LOW OVER THE BERING WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA TO BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 130 131 138.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML
LONG TERM...JR




000
FXAK68 PAFC 040013
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
413 PM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.ANALYSIS...

UPPER LEVELS...
A FAIRLY COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR NORTON SOUND IS
KEEPING ALL AREAS FROM BETHEL NORTH SOCKED IN CLOUDS AND LIMITING
INSTABILITY. SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE...RIDGING IS KEEPING SKIES
MAINLY CLEAR...ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO INCREASE AS INDICATED BY
THE DEVELOPING CUMULUS FIELD FROM NORTH OF DILLINGHAM UP INTO THE
SOUTHERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THE LOW DIGGING SOUTHWARD MAY PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
THIS REGION. A MUCH LARGER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. A DIGGING TROUGH ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS
LOW IS TAPPING TROPICAL MOISTURE....WHICH IS STREAMING NORTHWARD
TOWARD SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN BERING AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND OVER THE COMING DAYS.

SURFACE...
THE MOST NOTABLE FEATURE AT THE SURFACE IS A 998 MB LOW SOUTH OF
DUTCH HARBOR THAT IS FEEDING OFF THE INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
BRINGING VERY WET WEATHER TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE
SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MARKING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD
MAINLAND ALASKA. OVER SOUTHCENTRAL...THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND
ONLY SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE (AS INDICATED BY THE 12Z ANCHORAGE SOUNDING).
THUS WOULD EXPECT ANY SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALL SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED FASTER AND A BIT
STRONGER WITH THE WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AS IT TRACKS
NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY PREFER THE NAM SOLUTION FOR GOOD HANDLING OF THE DETAILS.
IT IS THE FASTEST WITH ARRIVAL OF RAIN IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
SATURDAY...SO WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING THAN THE NAM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BE ON THE RECEIVING END OF MUCH OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC AS THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EXPECT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS AS UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS
MOVE THROUGH. THE SURFACE FRONTS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL GENERALLY BE WET THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH COULD AFFECT BEHAVIOR OF
EXISTING FIRES. THE PREVAILING FLOW WITH EACH OF THESE WILL BE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

THE FRONT MOVING UP FROM THE PACIFIC WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT
HEADS INLAND ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SO EXPECT WETTING RAINS TO BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
ZONE. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THE THERMAL TROUGH ALL THE WAY NORTH
OF THE ALASKA RANGE USHERING IN MUCH MORE STABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION. A RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON SUNDAY LEADING
TO A RETURN TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE HIGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS FROM THE EASTERN GULF TO THE NORTH GULF COAST...
UNDERGOING FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH AS THE VARIOUS FRONTS MOVE
THROUGH. THIS RIDGE WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AS THE SURFACE FRONTS
NEAR...WHICH WILL BE SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY. EXPECT
STRONG GUSTY GAP WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THROUGH THE USUAL PLACES (TURNAGAIN ARM/KNIK RIVER VALLEY/COPPER
RIVER).

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE ALASKA RANGE AND TALKEETNA
MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER
COASTAL AREAS...PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY...WHILE ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
WILL SLIP ACROSS THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO SPREAD OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SUSITNA VALLEY...SO
DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROVIDE THE MECHANISM TO TRIGGER A FEW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS THIS WEEKEND. AS THE
FRONT MOVES INLAND...GUSTY CHANNELED FLOW WILL INCREASE TO STRONG
WIND CRITERIA THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM ON SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY
WEAKER GUSTS THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER AND OUT OF KNIK ARM. THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A NICE EVENING IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE MAINLAND AS THE AREA
LIES BETWEEN A SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND AN APPROACHING FRONT FROM
THE SOUTH. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING IS
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND VALLEY WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING.
TONIGHT A FRONT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...SPREADING RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND ON SATURDAY.
SOME GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT TOMORROW
MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST BEING THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA/ALEUTIAN RANGE. A SHORT BREAK HAPPENS ON LATE
SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM WEST TO EAST WILL
PROGRESS NORTHWARD TONIGHT STALLING OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. YET
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS ON SUNDAY CONTINUING THE WET AND ACTIVE PATTERN. EXPECT
AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE NORTHEASTERN BERING SEA WITH VISIBILITY
REDUCED TO ONE MILE OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND
INTO THE BERING LATE SUNDAY WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN
THAT AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST MONDAY BEFORE
BREAKING DOWN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS
COULD GET FAIRLY STRONG MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE SURFACE RIDGING AND ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF COINCIDES WITH DIURNAL HEATING INLAND AND A SHIFTING
OF THE THERMAL TROUGH FURTHER NORTH IN INTERIOR ALASKA. THE LARGER
CHANNELED AREAS SUCH AS TURNAGAIN ARM...THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY AND
COPPER RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS HOWEVER
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN MANY OF THE SMALLER
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST RUNNING VALLEYS AS WELL.

INITIALLY THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE
INCOMING BERING FRONTAL SYSTEMS CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND THEN FLATTENS...PRECIPITATION
AND COOLER WEATHER WILL BE ABLE TO SPREAD FURTHER EAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE LOW OVER THE BERING WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA TO BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 130 131 138.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML
LONG TERM...JR





000
FXAK68 PAFC 031259
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
459 AM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS POSITIONED EAST OF THE SEWARD
PENINSULA. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE WITH HAVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND WILL PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA REGION AND SPILLOVER INTO THE MATSU VALLEY REGION. THE
RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND APPROACHING THE MCGRATH AREA THIS
MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION HAS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND A 70 KNOT ZONAL JET STREAK THROUGH THE BRISTOL BAY
INTERIOR. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING LOW STRATUS SITTING
OFFSHORE IN THE KUSKOKWIM BAY AND STARTING TO GRADUALLY MOVE
ONSHORE. WHILE...THE ALASKA PENINSULA REGION THROUGH THE GULF HAS
A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH ANOTHER SMALL RIDGE EXTENDING
INTO THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE MAJORITY OF THE
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION AT THE SURFACE HAS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
AND THE CENTRAL GULF HAS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE SPORT MODIS
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY IS PICKING UP THE AREAS
OF FOG OVER THE KENAI AREA AND THE MATSU VALLEY REGION. THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS NEAR ADAK HAS A WEAK NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND A
SECONDARY LOW SOUTH OF THE DUTCH HARBOR REGION THIS MORNING. THIS
IS RESULTING IN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS THROUGH
THE EASTERN ALEUTAINS EXTENDING INTO THE BERING SEA. THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE OVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGION WITH STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG STREAMING INTO
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
EXCEPT FOR THE ECWMF BRINGING THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW FARTHER EAST
ALONG THE CHAIN THAN THE GFS/NAM MODELS. THE PREFERRED MODEL OF
CHOICE WAS THE NAM FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION AND THE GFS
FOR THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA REGION. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THE TWO NORTH PACIFIC LOWS BEGIN TO MERGE TOGETHER OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THERE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM APPROACHING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE KODIAK
ISLAND REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUHTWEST AND THE
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA INTERIOR BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE GULF AND
ONSHORE FLOW TO THE NORTHERN GULF MARINE AREAS. THE TURNAGAIN ARM
AND PORTAGE/WHITTIER WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATE SATURDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THIS WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE COASTAL MARINE AREAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND.
THE EASTERN GULF WILL HAVE THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE A STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE REGION. THIS IS DUE TO
DIFFERENT AREAS OF OFFSHORE STRATUS BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE
THIS MORNING. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ALSO SHOWING AREAS FOG IN
THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. BY SATURDAY A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WETTING RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
SUNDAY. THE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE ANY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION WILL HAVE ISOLATED WET THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THESE WET THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY BE OVER THE ALASKA RANGE...TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AND ALONG
THE WRANGELL MOUNTAINS IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THESE WET
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND BECOME
SHOWERS INLAND OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE REGION WILL KEEP THE HUMIDITIES FAIRLY LOW BUT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE WEATHER FRONT BY SATURDAY THE HUMIDITIES WILL
RECOVER. THE MARINE COASTAL HUMIDITIES WILL SEE THE LARGEST
RECOVERIES. THE INLAND AREAS WILL HAVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES JUST
NOT AS MUCH DUE TO MOUNTAINS KEEPING MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE COAST. THE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ABOVE ANY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MINOR SHORT WAVES WILL PROVIDE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE POSITIONING OF THE THERMAL TROUGH...DRAPED
ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SUSITNA VALLEY...COMBINED WITH
FORCING FROM UPPER SHORT WAVES AND MARGINAL STABILITY INDICES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND
MAINLY MOUNTAINS OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. SATURDAY SHOULD BE
MORE STABLE OVERALL AS COOLER AIR AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER FRONT.

A WEATHER FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE GULF WILL BRING RAIN TO
KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL SPREAD TO THE NORTH GULF
COAST AND KENAI PEN SATURDAY. MINIMUM EASTERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED
WITH AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE GULF.
BRISK GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TURNAGAIN ARM/PORTAGE VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE COPPER RIVER AND KNIK
ARM. GAP FLOWS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THESE AREAS ON SATURDAY AS
THE COASTAL RIDGE BUILDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WET AND WINDY PATTERN WILL BE RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
STARTING LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TODAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT OTHERWISE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING ALTHOUGH
PATCHY COASTAL FOG MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE WESTERN
COAST. AS WITH PREVIOUS DAYS...AREAS OF SMOKE ARE EXPECTED IN THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE HEAVIEST SMOKE IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS NEAR ACTIVE FIRES.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE BRISTOL BAY REGION IN EARNEST
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE RAPIDLY MOVING NORTHWARD TO THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY/DELTA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED OVER THE AHKLUN MOUNTAINS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE
LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND THE KILBUCK MOUNTAINS.

AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS THROUGH
CHANNELED TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FRONT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR ADAK HAS PUSHED INTO
THE BERING SEA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE NEXT FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC...WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY LATE
TONIGHT. RAIN AND WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW...RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND A RIDGE TRANSITS THE GULF AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SUPPRESSING RAIN EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF
THE SUSITNA AND AND COPPER RIVER VALLEYS WHERE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DEVELOP ALONG A TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. TO THE
WEST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN PULLS
A FRONT NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN GULF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
STILL LACK AGREEMENT. THE ALASKA PENINSULA...KODIAK ISLAND AND THE
EASTERN KENAI WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS
FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS DO AGREE ON BRINGING A SWATH OF
RAIN ACROSS BRISTOL BAY SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE KUSKOKWIM ON
SUNDAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN TIME AS MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH HANDLING THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE USED TO
UPDATE THE WEEKEND FORECAST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE
BEYOND MONDAY. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THAT A RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA KEEPING SOUTHCENTRAL
DRY ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE BERING BRINGS ANOTHER
REINFORCING FRONT LATE SUNDAY SPREADING RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND AND BERING INTO MONDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
THE PATTERN TO WATCH NEXT WEEK AS IT MAY BECOME THE DOMINATING
SYSTEM THAT BRINGS A REGULAR PATTERN OF CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 130 131 132 138.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PLD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...KH





000
FXAK68 PAFC 031259
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
459 AM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS POSITIONED EAST OF THE SEWARD
PENINSULA. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE WITH HAVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND WILL PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA REGION AND SPILLOVER INTO THE MATSU VALLEY REGION. THE
RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND APPROACHING THE MCGRATH AREA THIS
MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION HAS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND A 70 KNOT ZONAL JET STREAK THROUGH THE BRISTOL BAY
INTERIOR. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING LOW STRATUS SITTING
OFFSHORE IN THE KUSKOKWIM BAY AND STARTING TO GRADUALLY MOVE
ONSHORE. WHILE...THE ALASKA PENINSULA REGION THROUGH THE GULF HAS
A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH ANOTHER SMALL RIDGE EXTENDING
INTO THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE MAJORITY OF THE
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION AT THE SURFACE HAS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
AND THE CENTRAL GULF HAS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE SPORT MODIS
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY IS PICKING UP THE AREAS
OF FOG OVER THE KENAI AREA AND THE MATSU VALLEY REGION. THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS NEAR ADAK HAS A WEAK NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND A
SECONDARY LOW SOUTH OF THE DUTCH HARBOR REGION THIS MORNING. THIS
IS RESULTING IN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS THROUGH
THE EASTERN ALEUTAINS EXTENDING INTO THE BERING SEA. THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE OVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGION WITH STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG STREAMING INTO
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
EXCEPT FOR THE ECWMF BRINGING THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW FARTHER EAST
ALONG THE CHAIN THAN THE GFS/NAM MODELS. THE PREFERRED MODEL OF
CHOICE WAS THE NAM FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION AND THE GFS
FOR THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA REGION. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THE TWO NORTH PACIFIC LOWS BEGIN TO MERGE TOGETHER OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THERE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM APPROACHING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE KODIAK
ISLAND REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUHTWEST AND THE
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA INTERIOR BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE GULF AND
ONSHORE FLOW TO THE NORTHERN GULF MARINE AREAS. THE TURNAGAIN ARM
AND PORTAGE/WHITTIER WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATE SATURDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THIS WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE COASTAL MARINE AREAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND.
THE EASTERN GULF WILL HAVE THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE A STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE REGION. THIS IS DUE TO
DIFFERENT AREAS OF OFFSHORE STRATUS BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE
THIS MORNING. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ALSO SHOWING AREAS FOG IN
THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. BY SATURDAY A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WETTING RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
SUNDAY. THE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE ANY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION WILL HAVE ISOLATED WET THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THESE WET THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY BE OVER THE ALASKA RANGE...TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AND ALONG
THE WRANGELL MOUNTAINS IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THESE WET
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND BECOME
SHOWERS INLAND OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE REGION WILL KEEP THE HUMIDITIES FAIRLY LOW BUT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE WEATHER FRONT BY SATURDAY THE HUMIDITIES WILL
RECOVER. THE MARINE COASTAL HUMIDITIES WILL SEE THE LARGEST
RECOVERIES. THE INLAND AREAS WILL HAVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES JUST
NOT AS MUCH DUE TO MOUNTAINS KEEPING MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE COAST. THE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ABOVE ANY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MINOR SHORT WAVES WILL PROVIDE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE POSITIONING OF THE THERMAL TROUGH...DRAPED
ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SUSITNA VALLEY...COMBINED WITH
FORCING FROM UPPER SHORT WAVES AND MARGINAL STABILITY INDICES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND
MAINLY MOUNTAINS OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. SATURDAY SHOULD BE
MORE STABLE OVERALL AS COOLER AIR AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER FRONT.

A WEATHER FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE GULF WILL BRING RAIN TO
KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL SPREAD TO THE NORTH GULF
COAST AND KENAI PEN SATURDAY. MINIMUM EASTERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED
WITH AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE GULF.
BRISK GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TURNAGAIN ARM/PORTAGE VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE COPPER RIVER AND KNIK
ARM. GAP FLOWS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THESE AREAS ON SATURDAY AS
THE COASTAL RIDGE BUILDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WET AND WINDY PATTERN WILL BE RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
STARTING LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TODAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT OTHERWISE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING ALTHOUGH
PATCHY COASTAL FOG MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE WESTERN
COAST. AS WITH PREVIOUS DAYS...AREAS OF SMOKE ARE EXPECTED IN THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE HEAVIEST SMOKE IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS NEAR ACTIVE FIRES.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE BRISTOL BAY REGION IN EARNEST
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE RAPIDLY MOVING NORTHWARD TO THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY/DELTA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED OVER THE AHKLUN MOUNTAINS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE
LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND THE KILBUCK MOUNTAINS.

AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS THROUGH
CHANNELED TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FRONT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR ADAK HAS PUSHED INTO
THE BERING SEA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE NEXT FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC...WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY LATE
TONIGHT. RAIN AND WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW...RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND A RIDGE TRANSITS THE GULF AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SUPPRESSING RAIN EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF
THE SUSITNA AND AND COPPER RIVER VALLEYS WHERE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DEVELOP ALONG A TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. TO THE
WEST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN PULLS
A FRONT NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN GULF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
STILL LACK AGREEMENT. THE ALASKA PENINSULA...KODIAK ISLAND AND THE
EASTERN KENAI WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS
FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS DO AGREE ON BRINGING A SWATH OF
RAIN ACROSS BRISTOL BAY SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE KUSKOKWIM ON
SUNDAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN TIME AS MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH HANDLING THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE USED TO
UPDATE THE WEEKEND FORECAST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE
BEYOND MONDAY. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THAT A RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA KEEPING SOUTHCENTRAL
DRY ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE BERING BRINGS ANOTHER
REINFORCING FRONT LATE SUNDAY SPREADING RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND AND BERING INTO MONDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
THE PATTERN TO WATCH NEXT WEEK AS IT MAY BECOME THE DOMINATING
SYSTEM THAT BRINGS A REGULAR PATTERN OF CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 130 131 132 138.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PLD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...KH




000
FXAK68 PAFC 031259
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
459 AM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS POSITIONED EAST OF THE SEWARD
PENINSULA. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE WITH HAVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND WILL PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA REGION AND SPILLOVER INTO THE MATSU VALLEY REGION. THE
RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND APPROACHING THE MCGRATH AREA THIS
MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION HAS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND A 70 KNOT ZONAL JET STREAK THROUGH THE BRISTOL BAY
INTERIOR. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING LOW STRATUS SITTING
OFFSHORE IN THE KUSKOKWIM BAY AND STARTING TO GRADUALLY MOVE
ONSHORE. WHILE...THE ALASKA PENINSULA REGION THROUGH THE GULF HAS
A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH ANOTHER SMALL RIDGE EXTENDING
INTO THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE MAJORITY OF THE
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION AT THE SURFACE HAS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
AND THE CENTRAL GULF HAS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE SPORT MODIS
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY IS PICKING UP THE AREAS
OF FOG OVER THE KENAI AREA AND THE MATSU VALLEY REGION. THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS NEAR ADAK HAS A WEAK NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND A
SECONDARY LOW SOUTH OF THE DUTCH HARBOR REGION THIS MORNING. THIS
IS RESULTING IN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS THROUGH
THE EASTERN ALEUTAINS EXTENDING INTO THE BERING SEA. THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE OVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGION WITH STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG STREAMING INTO
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
EXCEPT FOR THE ECWMF BRINGING THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW FARTHER EAST
ALONG THE CHAIN THAN THE GFS/NAM MODELS. THE PREFERRED MODEL OF
CHOICE WAS THE NAM FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION AND THE GFS
FOR THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA REGION. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THE TWO NORTH PACIFIC LOWS BEGIN TO MERGE TOGETHER OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THERE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM APPROACHING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE KODIAK
ISLAND REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUHTWEST AND THE
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA INTERIOR BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE GULF AND
ONSHORE FLOW TO THE NORTHERN GULF MARINE AREAS. THE TURNAGAIN ARM
AND PORTAGE/WHITTIER WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATE SATURDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THIS WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE COASTAL MARINE AREAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND.
THE EASTERN GULF WILL HAVE THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE A STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE REGION. THIS IS DUE TO
DIFFERENT AREAS OF OFFSHORE STRATUS BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE
THIS MORNING. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ALSO SHOWING AREAS FOG IN
THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. BY SATURDAY A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WETTING RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
SUNDAY. THE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE ANY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION WILL HAVE ISOLATED WET THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THESE WET THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY BE OVER THE ALASKA RANGE...TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AND ALONG
THE WRANGELL MOUNTAINS IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THESE WET
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND BECOME
SHOWERS INLAND OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE REGION WILL KEEP THE HUMIDITIES FAIRLY LOW BUT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE WEATHER FRONT BY SATURDAY THE HUMIDITIES WILL
RECOVER. THE MARINE COASTAL HUMIDITIES WILL SEE THE LARGEST
RECOVERIES. THE INLAND AREAS WILL HAVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES JUST
NOT AS MUCH DUE TO MOUNTAINS KEEPING MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE COAST. THE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ABOVE ANY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MINOR SHORT WAVES WILL PROVIDE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE POSITIONING OF THE THERMAL TROUGH...DRAPED
ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SUSITNA VALLEY...COMBINED WITH
FORCING FROM UPPER SHORT WAVES AND MARGINAL STABILITY INDICES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND
MAINLY MOUNTAINS OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. SATURDAY SHOULD BE
MORE STABLE OVERALL AS COOLER AIR AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER FRONT.

A WEATHER FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE GULF WILL BRING RAIN TO
KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL SPREAD TO THE NORTH GULF
COAST AND KENAI PEN SATURDAY. MINIMUM EASTERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED
WITH AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE GULF.
BRISK GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TURNAGAIN ARM/PORTAGE VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE COPPER RIVER AND KNIK
ARM. GAP FLOWS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THESE AREAS ON SATURDAY AS
THE COASTAL RIDGE BUILDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WET AND WINDY PATTERN WILL BE RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
STARTING LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TODAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT OTHERWISE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING ALTHOUGH
PATCHY COASTAL FOG MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE WESTERN
COAST. AS WITH PREVIOUS DAYS...AREAS OF SMOKE ARE EXPECTED IN THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE HEAVIEST SMOKE IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS NEAR ACTIVE FIRES.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE BRISTOL BAY REGION IN EARNEST
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE RAPIDLY MOVING NORTHWARD TO THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY/DELTA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED OVER THE AHKLUN MOUNTAINS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE
LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND THE KILBUCK MOUNTAINS.

AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS THROUGH
CHANNELED TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FRONT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR ADAK HAS PUSHED INTO
THE BERING SEA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE NEXT FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC...WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY LATE
TONIGHT. RAIN AND WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW...RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND A RIDGE TRANSITS THE GULF AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SUPPRESSING RAIN EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF
THE SUSITNA AND AND COPPER RIVER VALLEYS WHERE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DEVELOP ALONG A TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. TO THE
WEST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN PULLS
A FRONT NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN GULF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
STILL LACK AGREEMENT. THE ALASKA PENINSULA...KODIAK ISLAND AND THE
EASTERN KENAI WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS
FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS DO AGREE ON BRINGING A SWATH OF
RAIN ACROSS BRISTOL BAY SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE KUSKOKWIM ON
SUNDAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN TIME AS MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH HANDLING THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE USED TO
UPDATE THE WEEKEND FORECAST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE
BEYOND MONDAY. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THAT A RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA KEEPING SOUTHCENTRAL
DRY ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE BERING BRINGS ANOTHER
REINFORCING FRONT LATE SUNDAY SPREADING RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND AND BERING INTO MONDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
THE PATTERN TO WATCH NEXT WEEK AS IT MAY BECOME THE DOMINATING
SYSTEM THAT BRINGS A REGULAR PATTERN OF CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 130 131 132 138.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PLD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...KH




000
FXAK68 PAFC 030020
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
420 PM AKDT THU JUL 2 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
STACKED MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE AREA FROM THE YUKON TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN
COINCIDING WITH A ROBUST 700-MB JET STREAK FROM THE INTERIOR SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY CONTINUES TO
DISINTEGRATE AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
ALASKA RANGE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST TROUGH
AXIS IS SITUATED ALONG A MCGRATH TO SEWARD LINE...AND REPRESENTS
THE EDGE OF DRIER AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

TO THE WEST...ANOTHER UPPER LOW RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN
MAINLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE WESTERN
INTERIOR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PERSISTENT RIDGING THAT HAS EXISTED OVER THE EASTERN BERING
CONTINUES TO HOLD EVEN AS AN ALEUTIAN LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR
ADAK. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WHILE
THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE UPPER COOK INLET REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER BASIN OVERNIGHT...AND WILL HELP
TO CLEAR OUT THE MOISTURE-RICH LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS BECOME A BIT MORE UNSTABLE
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT FOR SATURDAY...BUT
WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE CONFINED TO INLAND AREAS WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE COAST.

A FRONT PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE EAST AND NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
ANCHOR LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL PUSH A FRONT TOWARD
SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS FRONT WILL LOSE ITS SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND START TO SHEAR APART SATURDAY...BUT WILL STILL BRING
RAIN AND WIND TO COASTAL LOCATIONS AND SOME SHOWERS INLAND. GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN
ARM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AS WELL AS THROUGH GAPS IN THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY AND MOIST LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
CONDITIONS IN THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY
INLAND FRIDAY AND TOWARD THE COAST SATURDAY. WITH THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY...WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND COPPER
RIVER BASIN TOWARD THE ALASKA RANGE FRIDAY. UNDER TRANSITORY
RIDGING FRIDAY SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BE ABLE TO DRY OUT...WITH
SKIES BECOMING SUNNY AND CLEAR ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA. HUMIDITY VALUES MAY DROP INTO 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S
OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

SATURDAY WILL SEE A SOLID OVERCAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FRONT
MOVING INLAND...WITH RAIN TOWARD SOUTHWEST AND SHOWERS INLAND OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL. GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST ORIENTED
TERRAIN GAPS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING FRIDAY...BUT WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE ALOFT HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST AK WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT. SOME CLEARING ON FRI WILL ALLOW FOR
ENOUGH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER MOUNTAINS TO TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS...AND OVER THE ALASKA RANGE AND TALKEETNAS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT FROM THE GULF WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO COASTAL AREAS...WITH AREAS ON THE LEE
SIDE OF COASTAL MOUNTAINS ONLY RECEIVING SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAK TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE MAINLAND FROM THE NORTHWEST KEEPS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...BARELY
CLIPPING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BATTLE
WITH A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...KEEPING ANY
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WHILE A
WARMER AIR MASS BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH. FRIDAY WILL
BRING A QUICK SPIKE IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BEFORE A FRONT
PUSHES NORTHWARD FROM THE PACIFIC ON SATURDAY...MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND SPREADING RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
EASTERLY FLOW IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP AHEAD OF A FRONT CURRENTLY
ARCING FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS
UNTIL A DIFFERENT DISTURBANCE PICKS IT UP AND MOVES IT NORTHWARD
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML





000
FXAK68 PAFC 030020
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
420 PM AKDT THU JUL 2 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
STACKED MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE AREA FROM THE YUKON TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN
COINCIDING WITH A ROBUST 700-MB JET STREAK FROM THE INTERIOR SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY CONTINUES TO
DISINTEGRATE AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
ALASKA RANGE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST TROUGH
AXIS IS SITUATED ALONG A MCGRATH TO SEWARD LINE...AND REPRESENTS
THE EDGE OF DRIER AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

TO THE WEST...ANOTHER UPPER LOW RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN
MAINLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE WESTERN
INTERIOR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PERSISTENT RIDGING THAT HAS EXISTED OVER THE EASTERN BERING
CONTINUES TO HOLD EVEN AS AN ALEUTIAN LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR
ADAK. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WHILE
THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE UPPER COOK INLET REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER BASIN OVERNIGHT...AND WILL HELP
TO CLEAR OUT THE MOISTURE-RICH LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS BECOME A BIT MORE UNSTABLE
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT FOR SATURDAY...BUT
WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE CONFINED TO INLAND AREAS WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE COAST.

A FRONT PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE EAST AND NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
ANCHOR LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL PUSH A FRONT TOWARD
SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS FRONT WILL LOSE ITS SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND START TO SHEAR APART SATURDAY...BUT WILL STILL BRING
RAIN AND WIND TO COASTAL LOCATIONS AND SOME SHOWERS INLAND. GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN
ARM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AS WELL AS THROUGH GAPS IN THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY AND MOIST LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
CONDITIONS IN THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY
INLAND FRIDAY AND TOWARD THE COAST SATURDAY. WITH THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY...WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND COPPER
RIVER BASIN TOWARD THE ALASKA RANGE FRIDAY. UNDER TRANSITORY
RIDGING FRIDAY SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BE ABLE TO DRY OUT...WITH
SKIES BECOMING SUNNY AND CLEAR ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA. HUMIDITY VALUES MAY DROP INTO 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S
OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

SATURDAY WILL SEE A SOLID OVERCAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FRONT
MOVING INLAND...WITH RAIN TOWARD SOUTHWEST AND SHOWERS INLAND OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL. GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST ORIENTED
TERRAIN GAPS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING FRIDAY...BUT WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE ALOFT HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST AK WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT. SOME CLEARING ON FRI WILL ALLOW FOR
ENOUGH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER MOUNTAINS TO TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS...AND OVER THE ALASKA RANGE AND TALKEETNAS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT FROM THE GULF WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO COASTAL AREAS...WITH AREAS ON THE LEE
SIDE OF COASTAL MOUNTAINS ONLY RECEIVING SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAK TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE MAINLAND FROM THE NORTHWEST KEEPS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...BARELY
CLIPPING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BATTLE
WITH A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...KEEPING ANY
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WHILE A
WARMER AIR MASS BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH. FRIDAY WILL
BRING A QUICK SPIKE IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BEFORE A FRONT
PUSHES NORTHWARD FROM THE PACIFIC ON SATURDAY...MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND SPREADING RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
EASTERLY FLOW IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP AHEAD OF A FRONT CURRENTLY
ARCING FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS
UNTIL A DIFFERENT DISTURBANCE PICKS IT UP AND MOVES IT NORTHWARD
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML





000
FXAK68 PAFC 030020
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
420 PM AKDT THU JUL 2 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
STACKED MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE AREA FROM THE YUKON TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN
COINCIDING WITH A ROBUST 700-MB JET STREAK FROM THE INTERIOR SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY CONTINUES TO
DISINTEGRATE AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
ALASKA RANGE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST TROUGH
AXIS IS SITUATED ALONG A MCGRATH TO SEWARD LINE...AND REPRESENTS
THE EDGE OF DRIER AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

TO THE WEST...ANOTHER UPPER LOW RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN
MAINLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE WESTERN
INTERIOR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PERSISTENT RIDGING THAT HAS EXISTED OVER THE EASTERN BERING
CONTINUES TO HOLD EVEN AS AN ALEUTIAN LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR
ADAK. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WHILE
THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE UPPER COOK INLET REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER BASIN OVERNIGHT...AND WILL HELP
TO CLEAR OUT THE MOISTURE-RICH LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS BECOME A BIT MORE UNSTABLE
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT FOR SATURDAY...BUT
WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE CONFINED TO INLAND AREAS WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE COAST.

A FRONT PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE EAST AND NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
ANCHOR LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL PUSH A FRONT TOWARD
SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS FRONT WILL LOSE ITS SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND START TO SHEAR APART SATURDAY...BUT WILL STILL BRING
RAIN AND WIND TO COASTAL LOCATIONS AND SOME SHOWERS INLAND. GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN
ARM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AS WELL AS THROUGH GAPS IN THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY AND MOIST LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
CONDITIONS IN THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY
INLAND FRIDAY AND TOWARD THE COAST SATURDAY. WITH THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY...WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND COPPER
RIVER BASIN TOWARD THE ALASKA RANGE FRIDAY. UNDER TRANSITORY
RIDGING FRIDAY SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BE ABLE TO DRY OUT...WITH
SKIES BECOMING SUNNY AND CLEAR ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA. HUMIDITY VALUES MAY DROP INTO 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S
OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

SATURDAY WILL SEE A SOLID OVERCAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FRONT
MOVING INLAND...WITH RAIN TOWARD SOUTHWEST AND SHOWERS INLAND OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL. GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST ORIENTED
TERRAIN GAPS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING FRIDAY...BUT WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE ALOFT HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST AK WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT. SOME CLEARING ON FRI WILL ALLOW FOR
ENOUGH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER MOUNTAINS TO TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS...AND OVER THE ALASKA RANGE AND TALKEETNAS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT FROM THE GULF WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO COASTAL AREAS...WITH AREAS ON THE LEE
SIDE OF COASTAL MOUNTAINS ONLY RECEIVING SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAK TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE MAINLAND FROM THE NORTHWEST KEEPS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...BARELY
CLIPPING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BATTLE
WITH A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...KEEPING ANY
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WHILE A
WARMER AIR MASS BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH. FRIDAY WILL
BRING A QUICK SPIKE IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BEFORE A FRONT
PUSHES NORTHWARD FROM THE PACIFIC ON SATURDAY...MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND SPREADING RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
EASTERLY FLOW IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP AHEAD OF A FRONT CURRENTLY
ARCING FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS
UNTIL A DIFFERENT DISTURBANCE PICKS IT UP AND MOVES IT NORTHWARD
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML




000
FXAK68 PAFC 021232
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
432 AM AKDT THU JUL 2 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN EASTERLY WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR YAKUTAT
IS BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN FROM THE
EASTERN INTERIOR...THROUGH DENALI PARK...AND INTO THE SUSITNA
VALLEY. THIS WAVE SET UP A FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN THE MODELS HAD
INDICATED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL TO REMAIN DRY
FROM THIS FEATURE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WAVE WILL
DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND
OVER NORTHWEST CANADA...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN AROUND SOUTHCENTRAL LATER THIS MORNING. OVER THE
NORTHWEST COAST ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
WESTERN MAINLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE
WESTERN INTERIOR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AOR OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. PERSISTENT RIDGING THAT HAS EXISTED OVER THE EASTERN BERING
CONTINUES TO HOLD EVEN AS AN ALEUTIAN LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR
ADAK. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WHILE
THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH MOST OF THE MAIN ISSUES BEING PLACEMENT OF A
COMPLEX LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE PRODUCING RAINFALL OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING. IN GENERAL
THOUGH...THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM AND GEM REGIONAL HAVE
INITIALIZED THE BEST WITH THIS RAINFALL...AND ARE BOTH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF RAIN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THIS
MORNING. OVER THE BERING SEA THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF A COMPLEX LOW THAT WILL STRETCH
FROM THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC INTO THIS
WEEKEND...THEREFORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WTIH THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHCENTRAL...RAINFALL FROM THE WAVE CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM
SUSITNA VALLEY INTO COOK INLET WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVES INLAND
NEAR YAKUTAT. AS A RESULT...AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL THAT HAVE
REMAINED LARGELY DRY SO FAR FOR THE EVENT WILL LIKELY SEE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN LATER THIS MORNING...BUT CHANCES OF WETTING
RAINS WILL BE MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY. AFTER THIS
WAVE DISSIPATES OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS
EVENING...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY AND MOIST CONDITIONS IN
THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL ALSO RETREAT INTO WESTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY...LIMITING ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE ALASKA RANGE AND
TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY WITH LIMITED COVERAGE.

SOUTHWEST...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL
KEEP CLOUDY AND MOIST CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS TROUGH MAY PRODUCE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK. FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH OVER BRISTOL BAY...RIDGING FROM THE BERING WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS GENERALLY MOIST WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. THIS
RIDGING WILL THEN MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY...HOWEVER WITH MIN
RH VALUES ONLY IN THE MID 30S CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AN UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY STRETCHING SOUTH ACROSS THE SUSITNA
VALLEY TO SOUTHERN COOK INLET MOVES EAST INTO THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
CLEAR AREAS WEST OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN BY AFTERNOON THE SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TONIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF
WETTING RAIN WILL BE THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
PORTIONS OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS A THREAT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS MINOR SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. BRISK WEST TO
NORTH WEST GAP FLOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN KENAI
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEATHER FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC BRINGS RAINS
AND BRISK EASTERLY WINDS TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN GULF FRI
AFTERNOON/EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGE TODAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER MAINLY THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS DURING OVERNIGHT/MORNING INVERSIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT NOW STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. AS THE
FRONT MIGRATES NORTHWARD AND ELONGATES FROM EAST TO WEST...EXPECT
THE CORE OF THE WINDS TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
BERING SEA BY FRIDAY EVENING. RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG MOST
OF THE FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM UNALASKA EASTWARD. RAINFALL
WILL SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT ELONGATES. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY IN THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY OVER THE
AREA...BRINGING MOISTURE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. MOST OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW SETS UP OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

AREAS OF MARINE FOG AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED
NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND A RIDGE TRANSITS THE GULF AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SUPPRESSING RAIN EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RANGES
OF THE SUSITNA AND AND COPPER RIVER VALLEYS WHERE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG A TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. TO
THE WEST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN
PULLS A FRONT NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN GULF EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS
MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL LACK AGREEMENT. THE ALASKA PENINSULA...KODIAK
ISLAND AND THE EASTERN KENAI WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FROM THIS FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS DO AGREE ON
BRINGING A SWATH OF RAIN ACROSS BRISTOL BAY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE KUSKOKWIM ON SUNDAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THIS WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN TIME AS MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH HANDLING THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE USED TO
UPDATE THE WEEKEND FORECAST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE
BEYOND MONDAY. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THAT A RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA KEEPING SOUTHCENTRAL
DRY ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE BERING BRINGS ANOTHER
REINFORCING FRONT LATE SUNDAY SPREADING RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND AND BERING INTO MONDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
THE PATTERN TO WATCH NEXT WEEK AS IT MAY BECOME THE DOMINATING
SYSTEM THAT BRINGS A REGULAR PATTERN OF CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DEK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...KH




000
FXAK68 PAFC 021232
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
432 AM AKDT THU JUL 2 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN EASTERLY WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR YAKUTAT
IS BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN FROM THE
EASTERN INTERIOR...THROUGH DENALI PARK...AND INTO THE SUSITNA
VALLEY. THIS WAVE SET UP A FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN THE MODELS HAD
INDICATED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL TO REMAIN DRY
FROM THIS FEATURE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WAVE WILL
DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND
OVER NORTHWEST CANADA...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN AROUND SOUTHCENTRAL LATER THIS MORNING. OVER THE
NORTHWEST COAST ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
WESTERN MAINLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE
WESTERN INTERIOR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AOR OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. PERSISTENT RIDGING THAT HAS EXISTED OVER THE EASTERN BERING
CONTINUES TO HOLD EVEN AS AN ALEUTIAN LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR
ADAK. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WHILE
THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH MOST OF THE MAIN ISSUES BEING PLACEMENT OF A
COMPLEX LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE PRODUCING RAINFALL OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING. IN GENERAL
THOUGH...THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM AND GEM REGIONAL HAVE
INITIALIZED THE BEST WITH THIS RAINFALL...AND ARE BOTH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF RAIN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THIS
MORNING. OVER THE BERING SEA THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF A COMPLEX LOW THAT WILL STRETCH
FROM THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC INTO THIS
WEEKEND...THEREFORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WTIH THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHCENTRAL...RAINFALL FROM THE WAVE CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM
SUSITNA VALLEY INTO COOK INLET WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVES INLAND
NEAR YAKUTAT. AS A RESULT...AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL THAT HAVE
REMAINED LARGELY DRY SO FAR FOR THE EVENT WILL LIKELY SEE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN LATER THIS MORNING...BUT CHANCES OF WETTING
RAINS WILL BE MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY. AFTER THIS
WAVE DISSIPATES OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS
EVENING...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY AND MOIST CONDITIONS IN
THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL ALSO RETREAT INTO WESTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY...LIMITING ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE ALASKA RANGE AND
TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY WITH LIMITED COVERAGE.

SOUTHWEST...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL
KEEP CLOUDY AND MOIST CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS TROUGH MAY PRODUCE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK. FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH OVER BRISTOL BAY...RIDGING FROM THE BERING WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS GENERALLY MOIST WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. THIS
RIDGING WILL THEN MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY...HOWEVER WITH MIN
RH VALUES ONLY IN THE MID 30S CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AN UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY STRETCHING SOUTH ACROSS THE SUSITNA
VALLEY TO SOUTHERN COOK INLET MOVES EAST INTO THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
CLEAR AREAS WEST OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN BY AFTERNOON THE SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TONIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF
WETTING RAIN WILL BE THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
PORTIONS OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS A THREAT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS MINOR SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. BRISK WEST TO
NORTH WEST GAP FLOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN KENAI
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEATHER FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC BRINGS RAINS
AND BRISK EASTERLY WINDS TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN GULF FRI
AFTERNOON/EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGE TODAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER MAINLY THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS DURING OVERNIGHT/MORNING INVERSIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT NOW STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. AS THE
FRONT MIGRATES NORTHWARD AND ELONGATES FROM EAST TO WEST...EXPECT
THE CORE OF THE WINDS TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
BERING SEA BY FRIDAY EVENING. RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG MOST
OF THE FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM UNALASKA EASTWARD. RAINFALL
WILL SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT ELONGATES. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY IN THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY OVER THE
AREA...BRINGING MOISTURE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. MOST OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW SETS UP OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

AREAS OF MARINE FOG AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED
NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND A RIDGE TRANSITS THE GULF AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SUPPRESSING RAIN EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RANGES
OF THE SUSITNA AND AND COPPER RIVER VALLEYS WHERE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG A TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. TO
THE WEST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN
PULLS A FRONT NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN GULF EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS
MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL LACK AGREEMENT. THE ALASKA PENINSULA...KODIAK
ISLAND AND THE EASTERN KENAI WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FROM THIS FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS DO AGREE ON
BRINGING A SWATH OF RAIN ACROSS BRISTOL BAY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE KUSKOKWIM ON SUNDAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THIS WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN TIME AS MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH HANDLING THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE USED TO
UPDATE THE WEEKEND FORECAST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE
BEYOND MONDAY. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THAT A RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA KEEPING SOUTHCENTRAL
DRY ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE BERING BRINGS ANOTHER
REINFORCING FRONT LATE SUNDAY SPREADING RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND AND BERING INTO MONDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
THE PATTERN TO WATCH NEXT WEEK AS IT MAY BECOME THE DOMINATING
SYSTEM THAT BRINGS A REGULAR PATTERN OF CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DEK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...KH





000
FXAK68 PAFC 021232
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
432 AM AKDT THU JUL 2 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN EASTERLY WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR YAKUTAT
IS BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN FROM THE
EASTERN INTERIOR...THROUGH DENALI PARK...AND INTO THE SUSITNA
VALLEY. THIS WAVE SET UP A FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN THE MODELS HAD
INDICATED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL TO REMAIN DRY
FROM THIS FEATURE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WAVE WILL
DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND
OVER NORTHWEST CANADA...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN AROUND SOUTHCENTRAL LATER THIS MORNING. OVER THE
NORTHWEST COAST ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
WESTERN MAINLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE
WESTERN INTERIOR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AOR OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. PERSISTENT RIDGING THAT HAS EXISTED OVER THE EASTERN BERING
CONTINUES TO HOLD EVEN AS AN ALEUTIAN LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR
ADAK. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WHILE
THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH MOST OF THE MAIN ISSUES BEING PLACEMENT OF A
COMPLEX LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE PRODUCING RAINFALL OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING. IN GENERAL
THOUGH...THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM AND GEM REGIONAL HAVE
INITIALIZED THE BEST WITH THIS RAINFALL...AND ARE BOTH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF RAIN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THIS
MORNING. OVER THE BERING SEA THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF A COMPLEX LOW THAT WILL STRETCH
FROM THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC INTO THIS
WEEKEND...THEREFORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WTIH THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHCENTRAL...RAINFALL FROM THE WAVE CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM
SUSITNA VALLEY INTO COOK INLET WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVES INLAND
NEAR YAKUTAT. AS A RESULT...AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL THAT HAVE
REMAINED LARGELY DRY SO FAR FOR THE EVENT WILL LIKELY SEE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN LATER THIS MORNING...BUT CHANCES OF WETTING
RAINS WILL BE MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY. AFTER THIS
WAVE DISSIPATES OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS
EVENING...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY AND MOIST CONDITIONS IN
THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL ALSO RETREAT INTO WESTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY...LIMITING ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE ALASKA RANGE AND
TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY WITH LIMITED COVERAGE.

SOUTHWEST...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL
KEEP CLOUDY AND MOIST CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS TROUGH MAY PRODUCE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK. FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH OVER BRISTOL BAY...RIDGING FROM THE BERING WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS GENERALLY MOIST WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. THIS
RIDGING WILL THEN MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY...HOWEVER WITH MIN
RH VALUES ONLY IN THE MID 30S CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AN UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY STRETCHING SOUTH ACROSS THE SUSITNA
VALLEY TO SOUTHERN COOK INLET MOVES EAST INTO THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
CLEAR AREAS WEST OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN BY AFTERNOON THE SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TONIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF
WETTING RAIN WILL BE THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
PORTIONS OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS A THREAT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS MINOR SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. BRISK WEST TO
NORTH WEST GAP FLOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN KENAI
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEATHER FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC BRINGS RAINS
AND BRISK EASTERLY WINDS TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN GULF FRI
AFTERNOON/EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGE TODAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER MAINLY THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS DURING OVERNIGHT/MORNING INVERSIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT NOW STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. AS THE
FRONT MIGRATES NORTHWARD AND ELONGATES FROM EAST TO WEST...EXPECT
THE CORE OF THE WINDS TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
BERING SEA BY FRIDAY EVENING. RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG MOST
OF THE FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM UNALASKA EASTWARD. RAINFALL
WILL SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT ELONGATES. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY IN THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY OVER THE
AREA...BRINGING MOISTURE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. MOST OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW SETS UP OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

AREAS OF MARINE FOG AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED
NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND A RIDGE TRANSITS THE GULF AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SUPPRESSING RAIN EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RANGES
OF THE SUSITNA AND AND COPPER RIVER VALLEYS WHERE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG A TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. TO
THE WEST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN
PULLS A FRONT NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN GULF EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS
MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL LACK AGREEMENT. THE ALASKA PENINSULA...KODIAK
ISLAND AND THE EASTERN KENAI WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FROM THIS FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS DO AGREE ON
BRINGING A SWATH OF RAIN ACROSS BRISTOL BAY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE KUSKOKWIM ON SUNDAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THIS WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN TIME AS MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH HANDLING THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE USED TO
UPDATE THE WEEKEND FORECAST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE
BEYOND MONDAY. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THAT A RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA KEEPING SOUTHCENTRAL
DRY ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE BERING BRINGS ANOTHER
REINFORCING FRONT LATE SUNDAY SPREADING RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND AND BERING INTO MONDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
THE PATTERN TO WATCH NEXT WEEK AS IT MAY BECOME THE DOMINATING
SYSTEM THAT BRINGS A REGULAR PATTERN OF CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DEK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...KH




000
FXAK68 PAFC 021232
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
432 AM AKDT THU JUL 2 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN EASTERLY WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR YAKUTAT
IS BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN FROM THE
EASTERN INTERIOR...THROUGH DENALI PARK...AND INTO THE SUSITNA
VALLEY. THIS WAVE SET UP A FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN THE MODELS HAD
INDICATED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL TO REMAIN DRY
FROM THIS FEATURE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WAVE WILL
DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND
OVER NORTHWEST CANADA...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN AROUND SOUTHCENTRAL LATER THIS MORNING. OVER THE
NORTHWEST COAST ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
WESTERN MAINLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE
WESTERN INTERIOR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AOR OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. PERSISTENT RIDGING THAT HAS EXISTED OVER THE EASTERN BERING
CONTINUES TO HOLD EVEN AS AN ALEUTIAN LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR
ADAK. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WHILE
THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH MOST OF THE MAIN ISSUES BEING PLACEMENT OF A
COMPLEX LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE PRODUCING RAINFALL OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING. IN GENERAL
THOUGH...THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM AND GEM REGIONAL HAVE
INITIALIZED THE BEST WITH THIS RAINFALL...AND ARE BOTH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF RAIN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THIS
MORNING. OVER THE BERING SEA THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF A COMPLEX LOW THAT WILL STRETCH
FROM THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC INTO THIS
WEEKEND...THEREFORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WTIH THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHCENTRAL...RAINFALL FROM THE WAVE CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM
SUSITNA VALLEY INTO COOK INLET WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVES INLAND
NEAR YAKUTAT. AS A RESULT...AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL THAT HAVE
REMAINED LARGELY DRY SO FAR FOR THE EVENT WILL LIKELY SEE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN LATER THIS MORNING...BUT CHANCES OF WETTING
RAINS WILL BE MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY. AFTER THIS
WAVE DISSIPATES OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS
EVENING...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY AND MOIST CONDITIONS IN
THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL ALSO RETREAT INTO WESTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY...LIMITING ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE ALASKA RANGE AND
TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY WITH LIMITED COVERAGE.

SOUTHWEST...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL
KEEP CLOUDY AND MOIST CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS TROUGH MAY PRODUCE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK. FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH OVER BRISTOL BAY...RIDGING FROM THE BERING WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS GENERALLY MOIST WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. THIS
RIDGING WILL THEN MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY...HOWEVER WITH MIN
RH VALUES ONLY IN THE MID 30S CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AN UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY STRETCHING SOUTH ACROSS THE SUSITNA
VALLEY TO SOUTHERN COOK INLET MOVES EAST INTO THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
CLEAR AREAS WEST OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN BY AFTERNOON THE SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TONIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF
WETTING RAIN WILL BE THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
PORTIONS OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS A THREAT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS MINOR SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. BRISK WEST TO
NORTH WEST GAP FLOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN KENAI
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEATHER FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC BRINGS RAINS
AND BRISK EASTERLY WINDS TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN GULF FRI
AFTERNOON/EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGE TODAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER MAINLY THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS DURING OVERNIGHT/MORNING INVERSIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT NOW STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. AS THE
FRONT MIGRATES NORTHWARD AND ELONGATES FROM EAST TO WEST...EXPECT
THE CORE OF THE WINDS TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
BERING SEA BY FRIDAY EVENING. RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG MOST
OF THE FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM UNALASKA EASTWARD. RAINFALL
WILL SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT ELONGATES. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY IN THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY OVER THE
AREA...BRINGING MOISTURE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. MOST OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW SETS UP OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

AREAS OF MARINE FOG AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED
NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND A RIDGE TRANSITS THE GULF AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SUPPRESSING RAIN EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RANGES
OF THE SUSITNA AND AND COPPER RIVER VALLEYS WHERE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG A TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. TO
THE WEST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN
PULLS A FRONT NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN GULF EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS
MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL LACK AGREEMENT. THE ALASKA PENINSULA...KODIAK
ISLAND AND THE EASTERN KENAI WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FROM THIS FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS DO AGREE ON
BRINGING A SWATH OF RAIN ACROSS BRISTOL BAY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE KUSKOKWIM ON SUNDAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THIS WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN TIME AS MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH HANDLING THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE USED TO
UPDATE THE WEEKEND FORECAST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE
BEYOND MONDAY. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THAT A RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA KEEPING SOUTHCENTRAL
DRY ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE BERING BRINGS ANOTHER
REINFORCING FRONT LATE SUNDAY SPREADING RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND AND BERING INTO MONDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
THE PATTERN TO WATCH NEXT WEEK AS IT MAY BECOME THE DOMINATING
SYSTEM THAT BRINGS A REGULAR PATTERN OF CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DEK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...KH





000
FXAK68 PAFC 020024
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
424 PM AKDT WED JUL 1 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
BERING SEA AND INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING OUT OF THIS LOW INTO THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE IS THE
FOCUS FOR RAINFALL IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY TODAY. THIS PATTERN IS
ALSO KEEPING RATHER WEAK FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE. THE SURFACE LOW IS A BIT TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND IS TRACKING TOWARD YAKUTAT.
THE AREA IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES REMAINS RATHER UNSTABLE WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ALASKA IS MORE UNSTABLE THAN
SOUTHCENTRAL AND THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
CAPPED JUST ABOVE THE 850 MB LEVEL AND THE LFC IS HIGHER THAN
THIS. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS DOES EXIST BUT
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE DOING WELL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ON THE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES. THE BIGGEST MODEL QUESTION IN THE SHORT TERM HAS BEEN
IN THE WAY THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IS BEING
HANDLED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
IN THE MODELS HAS NOT BEEN GREAT WITH THIS FEATURE AND THERE
REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR TO THE SOUTH IT WILL BRING
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS IT EVENTUALLY
MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.

THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SETTLE ON MAKING THE RIDGE OVER
BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA MORE TRANSITORY IN NATURE AS
IT COMES ACROSS THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WOULD MAKE THE WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES BE RATHER
SHORT LIVED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING WETTING
RAINS TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY TO THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN TOMORROW. AREAS SOUTH OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME PRECIPITATION BUT NOT WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS.
THERE WILL BE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY BUT THE
NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING IN MORE MOISTURE BUT ALSO GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST GAP
WINDS.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED
AS A MOIST AND CLOUDY REGIME STAY IN PLACE OVER THE MAINLAND. AS
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT ALONG WITH A WARMER AIR
MASS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWNWARD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH REDUCED CLOUD COVER AS WELL. WHILE MINIMUM VALUES WILL
APPROACH 30 PERCENT IN SOME PLACES WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF WILL ASSURE THAT CLOUDY AND MOIST
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL
AK. RAIN WILL BE COMMON ALONG THE COAST WITH SHOWERS ON THE LEE
SIDE OF COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER INTERIOR
ZONES THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST
AND PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BEGIN. ON FRIDAY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ALONG THE AK RANGE AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH
SURFACE HEATING TO TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE THE REST OF
THE REGION WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE MAINLAND IS STILL SPLIT BETWEEN A COUPLE DIFFERENT REGIMES.
THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL KEEPS THE FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST IN WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WHILE A WEAK
EXTENSION OF A SEWARD PENINSULA TROUGH BRINGS IN A COOLER AND
CLOUDIER STABLE REGIME TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...ALONG WITH A
DIURNALLY FORCED MARINE LAYER FROM THE BERING SEA. THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL BE THE LAST DAY FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR ANY
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING FROM THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THROUGH INTERIOR
BRISTOL BAY...AND THE CHANCE IS LOW. THURSDAY THE ONLY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE BUT MOST OF THE
MAINLAND WILL BE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE A
DAILY PUSH THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AS WELL AS SNEAKING UP THE
ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE STALLED FRONT SITS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. IT WILL MAKE
VERY SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD UNTIL A SEPARATE DISTURBANCE COMES IN
FROM THE NORTHCENTRAL PACIFIC...ACTING TO ENHANCE THE FRONT AND
BRING RAIN TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND EVENTUALLY THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...WHILE ELONGATING THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS. MARINE LAYER STRATUS ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE BERING
SEA...INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE THIS CLOUD COVER
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND A RIDGE TRANSITS THE GULF AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SUPPRESSING RAIN EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF
THE SUSITNA AND COPPER RIVER VALLEYS WHERE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DEVELOP ALONG A TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. TO THE
WEST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN PULLS
A FRONT NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN GULF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
STILL LACK AGREEMENT. THE ALASKA PENINSULA...KODIAK ISLAND AND THE
EASTERN KENAI WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS
FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS DO AGREE ON BRINGING A SWATH OF
RAIN ACROSS BRISTOL BAY SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE KUSKOKWIM ON
SUNDAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN TIME AS MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH HANDLING THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE USED TO
UPDATE THE WEEKEND FORECAST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE
BEYOND MONDAY. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THAT A RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA KEEPING SOUTHCENTRAL
DRY ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE BERING BRINGS ANOTHER
REINFORCING FRONT LATE SUNDAY SPREADING RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND AND BERING INTO MONDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
THE PATTERN TO WATCH NEXT WEEK AS IT MAY BECOME THE DOMINATING
SYSTEM THAT BRINGS A REGULAR PATTERN OF CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...KH




000
FXAK68 PAFC 020024
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
424 PM AKDT WED JUL 1 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
BERING SEA AND INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING OUT OF THIS LOW INTO THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE IS THE
FOCUS FOR RAINFALL IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY TODAY. THIS PATTERN IS
ALSO KEEPING RATHER WEAK FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE. THE SURFACE LOW IS A BIT TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND IS TRACKING TOWARD YAKUTAT.
THE AREA IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES REMAINS RATHER UNSTABLE WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ALASKA IS MORE UNSTABLE THAN
SOUTHCENTRAL AND THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
CAPPED JUST ABOVE THE 850 MB LEVEL AND THE LFC IS HIGHER THAN
THIS. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS DOES EXIST BUT
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE DOING WELL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ON THE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES. THE BIGGEST MODEL QUESTION IN THE SHORT TERM HAS BEEN
IN THE WAY THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IS BEING
HANDLED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
IN THE MODELS HAS NOT BEEN GREAT WITH THIS FEATURE AND THERE
REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR TO THE SOUTH IT WILL BRING
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS IT EVENTUALLY
MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.

THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SETTLE ON MAKING THE RIDGE OVER
BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA MORE TRANSITORY IN NATURE AS
IT COMES ACROSS THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WOULD MAKE THE WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES BE RATHER
SHORT LIVED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING WETTING
RAINS TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY TO THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN TOMORROW. AREAS SOUTH OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME PRECIPITATION BUT NOT WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS.
THERE WILL BE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY BUT THE
NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING IN MORE MOISTURE BUT ALSO GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST GAP
WINDS.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED
AS A MOIST AND CLOUDY REGIME STAY IN PLACE OVER THE MAINLAND. AS
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT ALONG WITH A WARMER AIR
MASS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWNWARD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH REDUCED CLOUD COVER AS WELL. WHILE MINIMUM VALUES WILL
APPROACH 30 PERCENT IN SOME PLACES WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF WILL ASSURE THAT CLOUDY AND MOIST
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL
AK. RAIN WILL BE COMMON ALONG THE COAST WITH SHOWERS ON THE LEE
SIDE OF COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER INTERIOR
ZONES THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST
AND PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BEGIN. ON FRIDAY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ALONG THE AK RANGE AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH
SURFACE HEATING TO TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE THE REST OF
THE REGION WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE MAINLAND IS STILL SPLIT BETWEEN A COUPLE DIFFERENT REGIMES.
THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL KEEPS THE FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST IN WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WHILE A WEAK
EXTENSION OF A SEWARD PENINSULA TROUGH BRINGS IN A COOLER AND
CLOUDIER STABLE REGIME TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...ALONG WITH A
DIURNALLY FORCED MARINE LAYER FROM THE BERING SEA. THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL BE THE LAST DAY FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR ANY
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING FROM THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THROUGH INTERIOR
BRISTOL BAY...AND THE CHANCE IS LOW. THURSDAY THE ONLY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE BUT MOST OF THE
MAINLAND WILL BE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE A
DAILY PUSH THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AS WELL AS SNEAKING UP THE
ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE STALLED FRONT SITS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. IT WILL MAKE
VERY SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD UNTIL A SEPARATE DISTURBANCE COMES IN
FROM THE NORTHCENTRAL PACIFIC...ACTING TO ENHANCE THE FRONT AND
BRING RAIN TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND EVENTUALLY THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...WHILE ELONGATING THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS. MARINE LAYER STRATUS ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE BERING
SEA...INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE THIS CLOUD COVER
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND A RIDGE TRANSITS THE GULF AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SUPPRESSING RAIN EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF
THE SUSITNA AND COPPER RIVER VALLEYS WHERE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DEVELOP ALONG A TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. TO THE
WEST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN PULLS
A FRONT NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN GULF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
STILL LACK AGREEMENT. THE ALASKA PENINSULA...KODIAK ISLAND AND THE
EASTERN KENAI WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS
FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS DO AGREE ON BRINGING A SWATH OF
RAIN ACROSS BRISTOL BAY SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE KUSKOKWIM ON
SUNDAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN TIME AS MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH HANDLING THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE USED TO
UPDATE THE WEEKEND FORECAST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE
BEYOND MONDAY. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THAT A RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA KEEPING SOUTHCENTRAL
DRY ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE BERING BRINGS ANOTHER
REINFORCING FRONT LATE SUNDAY SPREADING RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND AND BERING INTO MONDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
THE PATTERN TO WATCH NEXT WEEK AS IT MAY BECOME THE DOMINATING
SYSTEM THAT BRINGS A REGULAR PATTERN OF CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...KH





000
FXAK68 PAFC 020024
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
424 PM AKDT WED JUL 1 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
BERING SEA AND INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING OUT OF THIS LOW INTO THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE IS THE
FOCUS FOR RAINFALL IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY TODAY. THIS PATTERN IS
ALSO KEEPING RATHER WEAK FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE. THE SURFACE LOW IS A BIT TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND IS TRACKING TOWARD YAKUTAT.
THE AREA IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES REMAINS RATHER UNSTABLE WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ALASKA IS MORE UNSTABLE THAN
SOUTHCENTRAL AND THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
CAPPED JUST ABOVE THE 850 MB LEVEL AND THE LFC IS HIGHER THAN
THIS. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS DOES EXIST BUT
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE DOING WELL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ON THE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES. THE BIGGEST MODEL QUESTION IN THE SHORT TERM HAS BEEN
IN THE WAY THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IS BEING
HANDLED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
IN THE MODELS HAS NOT BEEN GREAT WITH THIS FEATURE AND THERE
REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR TO THE SOUTH IT WILL BRING
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS IT EVENTUALLY
MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.

THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SETTLE ON MAKING THE RIDGE OVER
BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA MORE TRANSITORY IN NATURE AS
IT COMES ACROSS THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WOULD MAKE THE WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES BE RATHER
SHORT LIVED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING WETTING
RAINS TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY TO THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN TOMORROW. AREAS SOUTH OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME PRECIPITATION BUT NOT WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS.
THERE WILL BE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY BUT THE
NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING IN MORE MOISTURE BUT ALSO GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST GAP
WINDS.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED
AS A MOIST AND CLOUDY REGIME STAY IN PLACE OVER THE MAINLAND. AS
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT ALONG WITH A WARMER AIR
MASS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWNWARD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH REDUCED CLOUD COVER AS WELL. WHILE MINIMUM VALUES WILL
APPROACH 30 PERCENT IN SOME PLACES WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF WILL ASSURE THAT CLOUDY AND MOIST
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL
AK. RAIN WILL BE COMMON ALONG THE COAST WITH SHOWERS ON THE LEE
SIDE OF COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER INTERIOR
ZONES THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST
AND PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BEGIN. ON FRIDAY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ALONG THE AK RANGE AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH
SURFACE HEATING TO TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE THE REST OF
THE REGION WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE MAINLAND IS STILL SPLIT BETWEEN A COUPLE DIFFERENT REGIMES.
THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL KEEPS THE FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST IN WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WHILE A WEAK
EXTENSION OF A SEWARD PENINSULA TROUGH BRINGS IN A COOLER AND
CLOUDIER STABLE REGIME TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...ALONG WITH A
DIURNALLY FORCED MARINE LAYER FROM THE BERING SEA. THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL BE THE LAST DAY FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR ANY
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING FROM THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THROUGH INTERIOR
BRISTOL BAY...AND THE CHANCE IS LOW. THURSDAY THE ONLY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE BUT MOST OF THE
MAINLAND WILL BE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE A
DAILY PUSH THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AS WELL AS SNEAKING UP THE
ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE STALLED FRONT SITS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. IT WILL MAKE
VERY SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD UNTIL A SEPARATE DISTURBANCE COMES IN
FROM THE NORTHCENTRAL PACIFIC...ACTING TO ENHANCE THE FRONT AND
BRING RAIN TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND EVENTUALLY THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...WHILE ELONGATING THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS. MARINE LAYER STRATUS ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE BERING
SEA...INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE THIS CLOUD COVER
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND A RIDGE TRANSITS THE GULF AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SUPPRESSING RAIN EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF
THE SUSITNA AND COPPER RIVER VALLEYS WHERE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DEVELOP ALONG A TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. TO THE
WEST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN PULLS
A FRONT NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN GULF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
STILL LACK AGREEMENT. THE ALASKA PENINSULA...KODIAK ISLAND AND THE
EASTERN KENAI WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS
FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS DO AGREE ON BRINGING A SWATH OF
RAIN ACROSS BRISTOL BAY SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE KUSKOKWIM ON
SUNDAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN TIME AS MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH HANDLING THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE USED TO
UPDATE THE WEEKEND FORECAST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE
BEYOND MONDAY. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THAT A RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA KEEPING SOUTHCENTRAL
DRY ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE BERING BRINGS ANOTHER
REINFORCING FRONT LATE SUNDAY SPREADING RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND AND BERING INTO MONDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
THE PATTERN TO WATCH NEXT WEEK AS IT MAY BECOME THE DOMINATING
SYSTEM THAT BRINGS A REGULAR PATTERN OF CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...KH





000
FXAK68 PAFC 020024
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
424 PM AKDT WED JUL 1 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
BERING SEA AND INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING OUT OF THIS LOW INTO THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE IS THE
FOCUS FOR RAINFALL IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY TODAY. THIS PATTERN IS
ALSO KEEPING RATHER WEAK FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE. THE SURFACE LOW IS A BIT TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND IS TRACKING TOWARD YAKUTAT.
THE AREA IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES REMAINS RATHER UNSTABLE WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ALASKA IS MORE UNSTABLE THAN
SOUTHCENTRAL AND THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
CAPPED JUST ABOVE THE 850 MB LEVEL AND THE LFC IS HIGHER THAN
THIS. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS DOES EXIST BUT
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE DOING WELL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ON THE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES. THE BIGGEST MODEL QUESTION IN THE SHORT TERM HAS BEEN
IN THE WAY THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IS BEING
HANDLED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
IN THE MODELS HAS NOT BEEN GREAT WITH THIS FEATURE AND THERE
REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR TO THE SOUTH IT WILL BRING
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS IT EVENTUALLY
MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.

THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SETTLE ON MAKING THE RIDGE OVER
BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA MORE TRANSITORY IN NATURE AS
IT COMES ACROSS THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WOULD MAKE THE WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES BE RATHER
SHORT LIVED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING WETTING
RAINS TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY TO THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN TOMORROW. AREAS SOUTH OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME PRECIPITATION BUT NOT WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS.
THERE WILL BE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY BUT THE
NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING IN MORE MOISTURE BUT ALSO GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST GAP
WINDS.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED
AS A MOIST AND CLOUDY REGIME STAY IN PLACE OVER THE MAINLAND. AS
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT ALONG WITH A WARMER AIR
MASS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWNWARD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH REDUCED CLOUD COVER AS WELL. WHILE MINIMUM VALUES WILL
APPROACH 30 PERCENT IN SOME PLACES WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF WILL ASSURE THAT CLOUDY AND MOIST
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL
AK. RAIN WILL BE COMMON ALONG THE COAST WITH SHOWERS ON THE LEE
SIDE OF COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER INTERIOR
ZONES THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST
AND PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BEGIN. ON FRIDAY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ALONG THE AK RANGE AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH
SURFACE HEATING TO TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE THE REST OF
THE REGION WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE MAINLAND IS STILL SPLIT BETWEEN A COUPLE DIFFERENT REGIMES.
THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL KEEPS THE FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST IN WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WHILE A WEAK
EXTENSION OF A SEWARD PENINSULA TROUGH BRINGS IN A COOLER AND
CLOUDIER STABLE REGIME TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...ALONG WITH A
DIURNALLY FORCED MARINE LAYER FROM THE BERING SEA. THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL BE THE LAST DAY FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR ANY
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING FROM THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THROUGH INTERIOR
BRISTOL BAY...AND THE CHANCE IS LOW. THURSDAY THE ONLY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE BUT MOST OF THE
MAINLAND WILL BE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE A
DAILY PUSH THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AS WELL AS SNEAKING UP THE
ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE STALLED FRONT SITS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. IT WILL MAKE
VERY SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD UNTIL A SEPARATE DISTURBANCE COMES IN
FROM THE NORTHCENTRAL PACIFIC...ACTING TO ENHANCE THE FRONT AND
BRING RAIN TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND EVENTUALLY THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...WHILE ELONGATING THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS. MARINE LAYER STRATUS ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE BERING
SEA...INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE THIS CLOUD COVER
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND A RIDGE TRANSITS THE GULF AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SUPPRESSING RAIN EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF
THE SUSITNA AND COPPER RIVER VALLEYS WHERE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DEVELOP ALONG A TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. TO THE
WEST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN PULLS
A FRONT NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN GULF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
STILL LACK AGREEMENT. THE ALASKA PENINSULA...KODIAK ISLAND AND THE
EASTERN KENAI WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS
FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS DO AGREE ON BRINGING A SWATH OF
RAIN ACROSS BRISTOL BAY SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE KUSKOKWIM ON
SUNDAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN TIME AS MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH HANDLING THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE USED TO
UPDATE THE WEEKEND FORECAST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE
BEYOND MONDAY. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THAT A RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA KEEPING SOUTHCENTRAL
DRY ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE BERING BRINGS ANOTHER
REINFORCING FRONT LATE SUNDAY SPREADING RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND AND BERING INTO MONDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
THE PATTERN TO WATCH NEXT WEEK AS IT MAY BECOME THE DOMINATING
SYSTEM THAT BRINGS A REGULAR PATTERN OF CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...KH




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