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000
FXAK68 PAFC 281258
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
458 AM AKDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED THIS MORNING AS A
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NORTHERN PACIFIC
WITH AN EMBEDDED COMPLEX LOW CENTERED NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
NUMEROUS WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW ARE THE
MAIN FEATURES IMPACTING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN
CONTINUES ALONG THE GULF COAST AS ONE OF THESE WAVES PUSHES INLAND
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...WITH LOCATIONS IN THE LEE OF THE
CHUGACH AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS STAYING MOSTLY DRY AS A RESULT OF
STRONG CROSS BARRIER FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT SYSTEM IS TAKING
AIM ON THE WESTERN GULF AS A DEEP LOW APPROXIMATELY 350 MILES
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD. AN ASSOCIATED
FRONT IS ENTERING THE SOUTHERN GULF WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW...BRINGING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO KODIAK ISLAND. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING WESTWARD THROUGH THE BERING...BRINGING RAIN
TO THE AKPEN/EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD SHORT TERM AGREEMENT AND HAVE CONVERGED
ON A SOLUTION FOR THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW SET TO IMPACT THE
GULF AS IT APPROACHES KODIAK ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. MAINLY USED
THE GFS FOR THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. ALSO UTILIZED THE
ENHANCED DETAIL OF THE CANADIAN (GEM) REGIONAL MODEL IN THE FIRST
36 HOURS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE DOMAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF TODAY TAKING A SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTERLY PATH THAN IT LOOKED YESTERDAY IT WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY
OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IN WARM AND MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THERE
WILL BE A BIT OF RAINFALL OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS WITH JUST
SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS REMAINING FOR THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS TURNAGAIN PASS AND
THOMPSON PASS WILL SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT AREAS NEAR SEA LEVEL WILL PRETTY MUCH JUST EXPERIENCE
RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WILL BE THE 973 MB LOW APPROACHING KODIAK WITH THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING INLAND TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
CAPES AND ALASKA PENINSULA REGION OF BRISTOL BAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING TONIGHT. AS THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION...EXPECT A DRYING AND COOLING TREND THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATE SUNDAY AS A
SECOND WEAK LOW THAT FORMS SOUTH OF COLD BAY MIGRATES EASTWARD TO
NEAR KODIAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AT THE SURFACE...THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING SEA REMAINS FIRMLY
IN CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE LOW APPROACHING KODIAK ISLAND THIS
MORNING WITH BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
RAIN...WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FROM ATKA TO DUTCH HARBOR AS THE MARINE FLOW OFF THE
BERING COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF DUTCH
HARBOR MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING. TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN BERING
ENDING PRECIPITATION OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

FURTHER WEST...A LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT NEAR KAMCHATKA IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BRINGING A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY
SNOW AS THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING AND GULF OF ALASKA.
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY STAY OVER AREA WATERS AND SURROUNDING
COASTS. ON MONDAY THE CLOSED LOW CENTER SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AS ANOTHER LOW CENTER RACES ALONG
THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSES THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. AT THIS POINT THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...WITH A 400
MILE DIFFERENCE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE CENTERS. THE ECMWF TRACKS
THIS SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF KODIAK ISLAND AND THE GFS TRACKS SOUTH
OF THE ISLAND. THE ECMWF WOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES PUSHING A
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND THE GFS SOLUTION IS ON THE COOLER
SIDE WITH THE WARM FRONT SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN GULF.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 119 120 130 131 174.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RLF
LONG TERM...KH




000
FXAK68 PAFC 281258
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
458 AM AKDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED THIS MORNING AS A
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NORTHERN PACIFIC
WITH AN EMBEDDED COMPLEX LOW CENTERED NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
NUMEROUS WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW ARE THE
MAIN FEATURES IMPACTING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN
CONTINUES ALONG THE GULF COAST AS ONE OF THESE WAVES PUSHES INLAND
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...WITH LOCATIONS IN THE LEE OF THE
CHUGACH AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS STAYING MOSTLY DRY AS A RESULT OF
STRONG CROSS BARRIER FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT SYSTEM IS TAKING
AIM ON THE WESTERN GULF AS A DEEP LOW APPROXIMATELY 350 MILES
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD. AN ASSOCIATED
FRONT IS ENTERING THE SOUTHERN GULF WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW...BRINGING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO KODIAK ISLAND. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING WESTWARD THROUGH THE BERING...BRINGING RAIN
TO THE AKPEN/EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD SHORT TERM AGREEMENT AND HAVE CONVERGED
ON A SOLUTION FOR THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW SET TO IMPACT THE
GULF AS IT APPROACHES KODIAK ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. MAINLY USED
THE GFS FOR THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. ALSO UTILIZED THE
ENHANCED DETAIL OF THE CANADIAN (GEM) REGIONAL MODEL IN THE FIRST
36 HOURS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE DOMAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF TODAY TAKING A SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTERLY PATH THAN IT LOOKED YESTERDAY IT WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY
OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IN WARM AND MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THERE
WILL BE A BIT OF RAINFALL OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS WITH JUST
SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS REMAINING FOR THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS TURNAGAIN PASS AND
THOMPSON PASS WILL SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT AREAS NEAR SEA LEVEL WILL PRETTY MUCH JUST EXPERIENCE
RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WILL BE THE 973 MB LOW APPROACHING KODIAK WITH THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING INLAND TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
CAPES AND ALASKA PENINSULA REGION OF BRISTOL BAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING TONIGHT. AS THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION...EXPECT A DRYING AND COOLING TREND THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATE SUNDAY AS A
SECOND WEAK LOW THAT FORMS SOUTH OF COLD BAY MIGRATES EASTWARD TO
NEAR KODIAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AT THE SURFACE...THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING SEA REMAINS FIRMLY
IN CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE LOW APPROACHING KODIAK ISLAND THIS
MORNING WITH BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
RAIN...WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FROM ATKA TO DUTCH HARBOR AS THE MARINE FLOW OFF THE
BERING COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF DUTCH
HARBOR MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING. TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN BERING
ENDING PRECIPITATION OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

FURTHER WEST...A LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT NEAR KAMCHATKA IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BRINGING A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY
SNOW AS THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING AND GULF OF ALASKA.
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY STAY OVER AREA WATERS AND SURROUNDING
COASTS. ON MONDAY THE CLOSED LOW CENTER SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AS ANOTHER LOW CENTER RACES ALONG
THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSES THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. AT THIS POINT THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...WITH A 400
MILE DIFFERENCE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE CENTERS. THE ECMWF TRACKS
THIS SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF KODIAK ISLAND AND THE GFS TRACKS SOUTH
OF THE ISLAND. THE ECMWF WOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES PUSHING A
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND THE GFS SOLUTION IS ON THE COOLER
SIDE WITH THE WARM FRONT SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN GULF.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 119 120 130 131 174.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RLF
LONG TERM...KH





000
FXAK68 PAFC 281258
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
458 AM AKDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED THIS MORNING AS A
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NORTHERN PACIFIC
WITH AN EMBEDDED COMPLEX LOW CENTERED NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
NUMEROUS WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW ARE THE
MAIN FEATURES IMPACTING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN
CONTINUES ALONG THE GULF COAST AS ONE OF THESE WAVES PUSHES INLAND
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...WITH LOCATIONS IN THE LEE OF THE
CHUGACH AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS STAYING MOSTLY DRY AS A RESULT OF
STRONG CROSS BARRIER FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT SYSTEM IS TAKING
AIM ON THE WESTERN GULF AS A DEEP LOW APPROXIMATELY 350 MILES
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD. AN ASSOCIATED
FRONT IS ENTERING THE SOUTHERN GULF WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW...BRINGING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO KODIAK ISLAND. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING WESTWARD THROUGH THE BERING...BRINGING RAIN
TO THE AKPEN/EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD SHORT TERM AGREEMENT AND HAVE CONVERGED
ON A SOLUTION FOR THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW SET TO IMPACT THE
GULF AS IT APPROACHES KODIAK ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. MAINLY USED
THE GFS FOR THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. ALSO UTILIZED THE
ENHANCED DETAIL OF THE CANADIAN (GEM) REGIONAL MODEL IN THE FIRST
36 HOURS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE DOMAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF TODAY TAKING A SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTERLY PATH THAN IT LOOKED YESTERDAY IT WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY
OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IN WARM AND MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THERE
WILL BE A BIT OF RAINFALL OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS WITH JUST
SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS REMAINING FOR THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS TURNAGAIN PASS AND
THOMPSON PASS WILL SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT AREAS NEAR SEA LEVEL WILL PRETTY MUCH JUST EXPERIENCE
RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WILL BE THE 973 MB LOW APPROACHING KODIAK WITH THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING INLAND TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
CAPES AND ALASKA PENINSULA REGION OF BRISTOL BAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING TONIGHT. AS THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION...EXPECT A DRYING AND COOLING TREND THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATE SUNDAY AS A
SECOND WEAK LOW THAT FORMS SOUTH OF COLD BAY MIGRATES EASTWARD TO
NEAR KODIAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AT THE SURFACE...THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING SEA REMAINS FIRMLY
IN CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE LOW APPROACHING KODIAK ISLAND THIS
MORNING WITH BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
RAIN...WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FROM ATKA TO DUTCH HARBOR AS THE MARINE FLOW OFF THE
BERING COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF DUTCH
HARBOR MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING. TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN BERING
ENDING PRECIPITATION OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

FURTHER WEST...A LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT NEAR KAMCHATKA IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BRINGING A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY
SNOW AS THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING AND GULF OF ALASKA.
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY STAY OVER AREA WATERS AND SURROUNDING
COASTS. ON MONDAY THE CLOSED LOW CENTER SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AS ANOTHER LOW CENTER RACES ALONG
THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSES THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. AT THIS POINT THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...WITH A 400
MILE DIFFERENCE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE CENTERS. THE ECMWF TRACKS
THIS SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF KODIAK ISLAND AND THE GFS TRACKS SOUTH
OF THE ISLAND. THE ECMWF WOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES PUSHING A
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND THE GFS SOLUTION IS ON THE COOLER
SIDE WITH THE WARM FRONT SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN GULF.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 119 120 130 131 174.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RLF
LONG TERM...KH





000
FXAK68 PAFC 281258
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
458 AM AKDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED THIS MORNING AS A
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NORTHERN PACIFIC
WITH AN EMBEDDED COMPLEX LOW CENTERED NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
NUMEROUS WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW ARE THE
MAIN FEATURES IMPACTING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN
CONTINUES ALONG THE GULF COAST AS ONE OF THESE WAVES PUSHES INLAND
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...WITH LOCATIONS IN THE LEE OF THE
CHUGACH AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS STAYING MOSTLY DRY AS A RESULT OF
STRONG CROSS BARRIER FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT SYSTEM IS TAKING
AIM ON THE WESTERN GULF AS A DEEP LOW APPROXIMATELY 350 MILES
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD. AN ASSOCIATED
FRONT IS ENTERING THE SOUTHERN GULF WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW...BRINGING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO KODIAK ISLAND. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING WESTWARD THROUGH THE BERING...BRINGING RAIN
TO THE AKPEN/EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD SHORT TERM AGREEMENT AND HAVE CONVERGED
ON A SOLUTION FOR THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW SET TO IMPACT THE
GULF AS IT APPROACHES KODIAK ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. MAINLY USED
THE GFS FOR THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. ALSO UTILIZED THE
ENHANCED DETAIL OF THE CANADIAN (GEM) REGIONAL MODEL IN THE FIRST
36 HOURS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE DOMAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF TODAY TAKING A SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTERLY PATH THAN IT LOOKED YESTERDAY IT WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY
OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IN WARM AND MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THERE
WILL BE A BIT OF RAINFALL OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS WITH JUST
SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS REMAINING FOR THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS TURNAGAIN PASS AND
THOMPSON PASS WILL SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT AREAS NEAR SEA LEVEL WILL PRETTY MUCH JUST EXPERIENCE
RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WILL BE THE 973 MB LOW APPROACHING KODIAK WITH THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING INLAND TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
CAPES AND ALASKA PENINSULA REGION OF BRISTOL BAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING TONIGHT. AS THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION...EXPECT A DRYING AND COOLING TREND THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATE SUNDAY AS A
SECOND WEAK LOW THAT FORMS SOUTH OF COLD BAY MIGRATES EASTWARD TO
NEAR KODIAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AT THE SURFACE...THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING SEA REMAINS FIRMLY
IN CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE LOW APPROACHING KODIAK ISLAND THIS
MORNING WITH BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
RAIN...WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FROM ATKA TO DUTCH HARBOR AS THE MARINE FLOW OFF THE
BERING COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF DUTCH
HARBOR MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING. TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN BERING
ENDING PRECIPITATION OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

FURTHER WEST...A LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT NEAR KAMCHATKA IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BRINGING A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY
SNOW AS THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING AND GULF OF ALASKA.
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY STAY OVER AREA WATERS AND SURROUNDING
COASTS. ON MONDAY THE CLOSED LOW CENTER SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AS ANOTHER LOW CENTER RACES ALONG
THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSES THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. AT THIS POINT THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...WITH A 400
MILE DIFFERENCE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE CENTERS. THE ECMWF TRACKS
THIS SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF KODIAK ISLAND AND THE GFS TRACKS SOUTH
OF THE ISLAND. THE ECMWF WOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES PUSHING A
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND THE GFS SOLUTION IS ON THE COOLER
SIDE WITH THE WARM FRONT SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN GULF.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 119 120 130 131 174.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RLF
LONG TERM...KH




000
FXAK68 PAFC 280027
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
427 PM AKDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH A
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND A MEAN UPPER LOW
POSITION NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. A STRONG 175 KT ZONAL JET
LIES SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS NEAR 40N. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ARE GETTING AN
INFUSION OF ENERGY FROM THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THIS JET...RESULTING
IN MULTIPLE WEAK LOW CENTERS SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ONE OF THE
SHORTWAVES HAS INTENSIFIED MORE THAN THE OTHERS WITH THE HELP OF
SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND LOW-LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTIONS...AND HAS
RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 970 MB LOW SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. THIS LOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER-MAKER
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
IS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SURGING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND KODIAK ISLAND.

THE BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS HAS ALLOWED SOME BREAKS OF SUN TO
DEVELOP OVER INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WITH CROSS-BARRIER FLOW CONTINUING TO KEEP THE MAJORITY OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND THE COOK INLET POPULATION CENTERS HAVE AGAIN REVERSED AS
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE BEGINNING TO FAVOR NORTHERLY/DOWN-INLET
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK.

OUT WEST...ON THE "COLD" SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH....GENERAL
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH CONTINUING SHOWER ACTIVITY. MOST OF
THE PRECIP REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG A STATIONARY AND DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN A FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS DOWN
TO THE ATKA/DUTCH HARBOR AREA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN SUBSTANTIALLY BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY RELATING
TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF CONCERN WHICH IS THE
LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE VERY NOISY AND
INCONSISTENT...EVEN AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH THE GLOBAL
MODELS (GFS/ECMWF/GEMGLB) ARE ALL IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT
TAKING THE LOW UP INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF BY SATURDAY EVENING
BEFORE THE STORM WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY AND RECURVES WESTWARD BACK
TOWARD THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS THE PREFERRED
MODEL TODAY...THOUGH SOME HI-RES GEM-RGL WAS ALSO USED TO BUMP
WINDS UP IN THE VICINITY OF LOWER COOK INLET...THE BARREN
ISLANDS...AND SHELIKOF STRAIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WILL BRING RAIN TO KODIAK
TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...AND WILL ENHANCE RAIN ALONG THE REST OF THE
NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO
EDGE ACROSS THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS...AND AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SAT.
MATANUSKA WINDS WILL INCREASE SAT AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT RH VALUES SHOULD NOT FALL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. ON
SUN...THE ASSOCIATED LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER KODIAK AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW RESUMES SO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...SAT AND
SUN)...THE PATTERN WILL BE CONTROLLED BY ONE LOW CURRENTLY IN
NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY AND ANOTHER IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE BRISTOL
BAY LOW WILL PULL AWAY TO THE WEST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS IT DOES SO...ANY LINGERING SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THEN
THE LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF AK. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO BRING THE WINDS AROUND TO MORE OF
A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AK. THIS OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL BRING DRYING CONDITIONS FOR MOST PLACES AND SHOULD ALLOW
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS. GUSTY
WINDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE GULF LOW SHOULD ONLY BE
ABLE TO REACH THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2...SAT AND
SUN)...THE MOST INTERESTING WEATHER WILL BE UNDER THE WEAKENING
DEFORMATION ZONE CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND SOME
COLDER AIR ARE MAKING FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS FOR THE
PRIBS AND FOR ATKA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY WEAKENS. A NEW LOW ROLLS
OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY AND SHOULD SPREAD SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. THIS LOW WILL THEN STRETCH OUT AND FALL APART IN THAT SAME
REGION ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FLOW COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE BERING
SIDE...OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH THE
FIRST NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKING SOUTH EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND BY
MONDAY. THIS LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND LOW WILL ENTER THE GULF BY
WEDNESDAY AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHCENTRAL REGION.
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE COASTAL AREAS WITH THE FIRST
SYSTEM THROUGH THE MIDWEEK...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST WITH SECOND SYSTEM BY END OF THE WEEK. THE INLAND AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE WEEK.

THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND BRISTOL BAY REGION WILL HAVE SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE MIDWEEK WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION SPILLING OVER FROM THE LOW POSITIONED NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND. BY TUESDAY...THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW TRACK INTO THE AREA AND MOVE PARALLEL TO THE ALEUTIAN
BEFORE TRACKING TO THE GULF BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND COLDER AIR ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE CHAIN AND SPREAD OVER INTO THE
LOWER PORTIONS OF THE BERING SEA. PRECIPITATION WILL RAIN BEFORE
CHANGING TO SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY FRIDAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO GULF
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. WHILE...THE MODELS WERE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT AND THE ECMWF MODEL STILL CONTINUES TO BE MORE
CONSISTENT FROM OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE...HPC USED A STRONGER BLEND
OF THE EC/GFS ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK. THE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 119 120 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 150 173 174 176
         179 351 352 413 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...PD





000
FXAK68 PAFC 280027
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
427 PM AKDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH A
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND A MEAN UPPER LOW
POSITION NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. A STRONG 175 KT ZONAL JET
LIES SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS NEAR 40N. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ARE GETTING AN
INFUSION OF ENERGY FROM THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THIS JET...RESULTING
IN MULTIPLE WEAK LOW CENTERS SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ONE OF THE
SHORTWAVES HAS INTENSIFIED MORE THAN THE OTHERS WITH THE HELP OF
SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND LOW-LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTIONS...AND HAS
RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 970 MB LOW SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. THIS LOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER-MAKER
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
IS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SURGING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND KODIAK ISLAND.

THE BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS HAS ALLOWED SOME BREAKS OF SUN TO
DEVELOP OVER INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WITH CROSS-BARRIER FLOW CONTINUING TO KEEP THE MAJORITY OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND THE COOK INLET POPULATION CENTERS HAVE AGAIN REVERSED AS
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE BEGINNING TO FAVOR NORTHERLY/DOWN-INLET
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK.

OUT WEST...ON THE "COLD" SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH....GENERAL
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH CONTINUING SHOWER ACTIVITY. MOST OF
THE PRECIP REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG A STATIONARY AND DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN A FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS DOWN
TO THE ATKA/DUTCH HARBOR AREA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN SUBSTANTIALLY BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY RELATING
TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF CONCERN WHICH IS THE
LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE VERY NOISY AND
INCONSISTENT...EVEN AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH THE GLOBAL
MODELS (GFS/ECMWF/GEMGLB) ARE ALL IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT
TAKING THE LOW UP INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF BY SATURDAY EVENING
BEFORE THE STORM WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY AND RECURVES WESTWARD BACK
TOWARD THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS THE PREFERRED
MODEL TODAY...THOUGH SOME HI-RES GEM-RGL WAS ALSO USED TO BUMP
WINDS UP IN THE VICINITY OF LOWER COOK INLET...THE BARREN
ISLANDS...AND SHELIKOF STRAIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WILL BRING RAIN TO KODIAK
TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...AND WILL ENHANCE RAIN ALONG THE REST OF THE
NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO
EDGE ACROSS THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS...AND AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SAT.
MATANUSKA WINDS WILL INCREASE SAT AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT RH VALUES SHOULD NOT FALL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. ON
SUN...THE ASSOCIATED LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER KODIAK AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW RESUMES SO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...SAT AND
SUN)...THE PATTERN WILL BE CONTROLLED BY ONE LOW CURRENTLY IN
NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY AND ANOTHER IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE BRISTOL
BAY LOW WILL PULL AWAY TO THE WEST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS IT DOES SO...ANY LINGERING SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THEN
THE LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF AK. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO BRING THE WINDS AROUND TO MORE OF
A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AK. THIS OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL BRING DRYING CONDITIONS FOR MOST PLACES AND SHOULD ALLOW
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS. GUSTY
WINDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE GULF LOW SHOULD ONLY BE
ABLE TO REACH THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2...SAT AND
SUN)...THE MOST INTERESTING WEATHER WILL BE UNDER THE WEAKENING
DEFORMATION ZONE CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND SOME
COLDER AIR ARE MAKING FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS FOR THE
PRIBS AND FOR ATKA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY WEAKENS. A NEW LOW ROLLS
OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY AND SHOULD SPREAD SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. THIS LOW WILL THEN STRETCH OUT AND FALL APART IN THAT SAME
REGION ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FLOW COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE BERING
SIDE...OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH THE
FIRST NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKING SOUTH EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND BY
MONDAY. THIS LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND LOW WILL ENTER THE GULF BY
WEDNESDAY AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHCENTRAL REGION.
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE COASTAL AREAS WITH THE FIRST
SYSTEM THROUGH THE MIDWEEK...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST WITH SECOND SYSTEM BY END OF THE WEEK. THE INLAND AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE WEEK.

THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND BRISTOL BAY REGION WILL HAVE SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE MIDWEEK WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION SPILLING OVER FROM THE LOW POSITIONED NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND. BY TUESDAY...THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW TRACK INTO THE AREA AND MOVE PARALLEL TO THE ALEUTIAN
BEFORE TRACKING TO THE GULF BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND COLDER AIR ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE CHAIN AND SPREAD OVER INTO THE
LOWER PORTIONS OF THE BERING SEA. PRECIPITATION WILL RAIN BEFORE
CHANGING TO SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY FRIDAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO GULF
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. WHILE...THE MODELS WERE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT AND THE ECMWF MODEL STILL CONTINUES TO BE MORE
CONSISTENT FROM OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE...HPC USED A STRONGER BLEND
OF THE EC/GFS ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK. THE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 119 120 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 150 173 174 176
         179 351 352 413 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...PD




000
FXAK68 PAFC 271302
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
502 AM AKDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING IS A BROAD COMPLEX LOW EMBEDDED IN A
SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC. THIS COMPLEX LOW REMAINS QUASI STATIONARY NEAR
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AS A SERIES OF WAVES ROUND ITS EASTERN
PERIPHERY AND TRACK INTO THE GULF TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.
THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES HAS ALREADY PUSHED INLAND AND WEAKENED
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...WITH RAIN CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST
AS STRONG CROSS BARRIER FLOW ACROSS THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS KEEPS
INLAND AREAS MOSTLY DRY. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO PUSHED INTO THE
BRISTOL BAY REGION AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE SOUTHWEST
COAST. MEANWHILE...A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
PERIODS OF SNOW TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM BUT
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AS THEY
ORIGINATE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND TRACK NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
GULF. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE FEATURES WILL DEVELOP THIS
MORNING BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
SOUTH OF 50N LATITUDE AND THEN MOVE INTO THE GULF FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH
RESPECT TO THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS LOW...WITH THE GFS/NAM
SOLUTIONS TAKING IT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WHEREAS THE CANADIAN
(GEM) GLOBAL MODEL IS CLOSER TO KODIAK ISLAND. UTILIZED THE EC FOR
THE FORECAST AS IT REPRESENTS SOMEWHAT OF A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION
AND HAS ALSO SHOWN GOOD CONSISTENCY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
ALSO USED THE GEM REGIONAL IN THE FIRST 36 HOURS FOR ENHANCED
DETAIL OF WINDS OVER THE BERING AND SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

WINDS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA HAVE TURNED SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT HAS MOVED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES. THERE WILL BE RAIN
SHOWERS THAT ARE MIXED WITH SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY BUT
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OVER THE COASTAL AREAS. THE
LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL STILL ONLY SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE MAIN LOW THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE AREA IS THE LOW SOUTH OF
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS LOW IS BRINGING IN MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC THAT IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. THE LOW IS WEAKENING AND AS IT DOES THE SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH. BY TONIGHT IT WILL BE ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND THIS NEW LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
GULF BRINGING IN DRIER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
NORTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA KEEPING SHOWERS WIDESPREAD FOR
THE ALEUTIANS. HOWEVER...TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE SHOWERS. THEN ON
SATURDAY NIGHT A FRONT WILL PUSH IN OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
BRINGING PRECIP BACK. THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL STAY
UNDER THE NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

NEXT SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE A PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH
BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH THE MAIN CENTER IN THE VICINITY OF THE WESTERN GULF. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE CORE OF THE LOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTS. INLAND LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO STAY MAINLY
DRY DURING THIS TIME DUE TO DOWNSLOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. TO THE WEST OVER THE BERING...A COLDER AIR
MASS BEGINS TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE STARTING TO
COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THIS COLDER AIR SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DUE TO THIS NEWLY ANTICIPATED PATTERN
SHIFT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 119 120 131 132 137 150 175 179
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...KH




000
FXAK68 PAFC 271302
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
502 AM AKDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING IS A BROAD COMPLEX LOW EMBEDDED IN A
SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC. THIS COMPLEX LOW REMAINS QUASI STATIONARY NEAR
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AS A SERIES OF WAVES ROUND ITS EASTERN
PERIPHERY AND TRACK INTO THE GULF TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.
THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES HAS ALREADY PUSHED INLAND AND WEAKENED
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...WITH RAIN CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST
AS STRONG CROSS BARRIER FLOW ACROSS THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS KEEPS
INLAND AREAS MOSTLY DRY. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO PUSHED INTO THE
BRISTOL BAY REGION AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE SOUTHWEST
COAST. MEANWHILE...A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
PERIODS OF SNOW TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM BUT
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AS THEY
ORIGINATE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND TRACK NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
GULF. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE FEATURES WILL DEVELOP THIS
MORNING BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
SOUTH OF 50N LATITUDE AND THEN MOVE INTO THE GULF FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH
RESPECT TO THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS LOW...WITH THE GFS/NAM
SOLUTIONS TAKING IT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WHEREAS THE CANADIAN
(GEM) GLOBAL MODEL IS CLOSER TO KODIAK ISLAND. UTILIZED THE EC FOR
THE FORECAST AS IT REPRESENTS SOMEWHAT OF A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION
AND HAS ALSO SHOWN GOOD CONSISTENCY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
ALSO USED THE GEM REGIONAL IN THE FIRST 36 HOURS FOR ENHANCED
DETAIL OF WINDS OVER THE BERING AND SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

WINDS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA HAVE TURNED SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT HAS MOVED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES. THERE WILL BE RAIN
SHOWERS THAT ARE MIXED WITH SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY BUT
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OVER THE COASTAL AREAS. THE
LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL STILL ONLY SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE MAIN LOW THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE AREA IS THE LOW SOUTH OF
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS LOW IS BRINGING IN MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC THAT IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. THE LOW IS WEAKENING AND AS IT DOES THE SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH. BY TONIGHT IT WILL BE ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND THIS NEW LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
GULF BRINGING IN DRIER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
NORTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA KEEPING SHOWERS WIDESPREAD FOR
THE ALEUTIANS. HOWEVER...TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE SHOWERS. THEN ON
SATURDAY NIGHT A FRONT WILL PUSH IN OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
BRINGING PRECIP BACK. THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL STAY
UNDER THE NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

NEXT SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE A PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH
BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH THE MAIN CENTER IN THE VICINITY OF THE WESTERN GULF. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE CORE OF THE LOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTS. INLAND LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO STAY MAINLY
DRY DURING THIS TIME DUE TO DOWNSLOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. TO THE WEST OVER THE BERING...A COLDER AIR
MASS BEGINS TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE STARTING TO
COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THIS COLDER AIR SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DUE TO THIS NEWLY ANTICIPATED PATTERN
SHIFT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 119 120 131 132 137 150 175 179
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...KH





000
FXAK68 PAFC 270034
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
434 PM AKDT THU MAR 26 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A LOOK AT THE MORNING WEATHER MAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC...WITH APPROXIMATE TROUGH
AXIS THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE STORM THAT HAD MOVED UP
TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND YESTERDAY HAS NOW WEAKENED...AND SENSIBLE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION IS NOW DICTATED PRIMARILY BY THE
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE FEATURES MOVING AROUND A MEAN LOW
POSITION SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. CROSS-BARRIER FLOW ACROSS
THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE COOK INLET
POPULATION CENTERS ALMOST ENTIRELY DRY. MEANWHILE...BETWEEN ONE-
HALF AND ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE EASTERN KENAI
PENINSULA...WITH PORTAGE AREA REPORTING CLOSER TO 2 INCHES IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS. AN AREA OF PRESSURE RISES (ISALLOBARIC MAXIMUM)
BEHIND YESTERDAYS STORM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD LOWER COOK
INLET. THIS FEATURE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN THE DOWN-INLET PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND WILL EVENTUALLY REVERSE THIS GRADIENT RESULTING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND COOK INLET BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...WEAKENING CROSS-BARRIER FLOW IS
ALLOWING SOME OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE
SUCCESS BRINGING PRECIP ALL THE WAY TO THE GROUND. PORTIONS OF
BRISTOL BAY AS WELL AS THE DELTA RECEIVED A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN/SNOW EARLIER FROM ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES. THIS
SHOWERY/INTERMITTENT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS CONTINUING
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

OUT WEST...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS. A STATIONARY AND WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO BRING STEADY RAIN WEST
OF COLD BAY AND EAST OF ATKA...INCLUDING DUTCH HARBOR...HOWEVER
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS BEGINNING TO SHOW WARMING
CLOUD TOPS AS THIS FEATURE BEGINS TO DIMINISH.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT...BUT BEYOND A DAY OR
TWO REALLY START TO STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THE PATTERN. THIS
IS NOT A HUGE SURPRISE AS THE MODELS PERFORM MUCH BETTER WHEN
THERE ARE COHERENT AND STRONG SYNOPTIC FEATURES...AS OPPOSED TO
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES MOVING IN FROM THE DATA-SPARSE OCEAN REGIONS.
IN THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST...THE LARGEST CONCERN IS
WHERE AND HOW STRONG A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP INTO THE GULF ON
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE..THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
THE MOST CONSISTENT...AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE POSITION OF THE
GEM-REGIONAL THIS MORNING. THE AFTERNOON FORECAST WILL REFLECT A
BLEND OF THESE TWO. THE NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS HAVE BEEN QUITE
INCONSISTENT...JUMPING HUNDREDS OF MILES FROM RUN-TO-RUN AS THE
MODELS STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE WHERE THE UPPER WAVES WILL BE LET ALONE
WHEN AND WHERE THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOWS WILL DEVELOP. THE MAIN
IMPACT OF THE LOW TRACK WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF A BARRIER JET
ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA EXTENDING DOWN INTO SHELIKOF
STRAIT...AND AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST OF GALE-
FORCE STRENGTH BASED ON THE ECMWF LOW POSITION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE. IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SHORT BURSTS OF WIND DURING THE EVENING...AND WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MOIST FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE REGION THROUGH FRI...WITH
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTH OF THE
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. UP TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THOMPSON PASS TONIGHT AND FRI
NIGHT..AND TURNAGAIN PASS TONIGHT.

THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE GULF FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT AND BRING RAIN TO THE COAST WITH SOME SNOW AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN.
INTERIOR AREAS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY DOWNSLOPED TO PREVENT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...FRI AND SAT)...A
COMPLEX AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPIN THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EACH WAVE
WILL BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA WITH SOME
GUSTIER WINDS...BUT NONE OF THEM IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN FOR BRISTOL BAY
UNTIL YOU GET UP INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE KILBUCK
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS ALL
SNOW IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKO VALLEY. THE GUSTIEST
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 40 MPH CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE CHANNELED
HIGHER TERRAIN OF BRISTOL BAY AND THE DELTA COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2...FRI AND
SAT)...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH FRI. WITH
LOW PRESSURE NEARLY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...THESE AREAS SHOULD
EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS BUT PLENTY OF ON AND OFF RAIN
SHOWERS. ON THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE LOW...COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
BE PULLED DOWN THROUGH THE BERING. THIS IS MAKING FOR A TIGHTER
GRADIENT AND SOME GUSTIER NORTHERNLY WINDS FROM ATKA TO DUTCH
HARBOR AND TO THE PRIBILOFS. ANY BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS FOR THE
PRIBS SHOULD BE LIMITED AS THEY WILL REMAIN ONLY ON THE FRINGE OF
THE HEAVIER QPF. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THINGS QUITE QUIET OVER THE
WESTERN BERING ON FRI BEFORE A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA ON SAT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND SHOULD HELP TO BUMP THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THIS AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE NEXT GALE
FORCE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL BE LOCATED ON THE EAST SIDE OF KODIAK
ISLAND BY SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL EXTEND ALONG
THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA EASTWARD THROUGH CAPE SUCKLING AREA.
THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THE MATSU
VALLEY AND THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL DOWNSLOPE OUT RESULTING IN
DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY MONDAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY BEFORE DISSIPATING BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ALL IN THE
FORM OF RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL REGION EXCEPT MIXING WITH SNOW AT
TIMES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE INLAND AREAS. THE SURFACE FLOW
WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED WARM
TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION.

THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN IN PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE KODIAK ISLAND AREA BEFORE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF BY MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND RAIN ALONG THE EASTERN ALEUTAINS...THE BRISTOL BAY AREA
THROUGH THE MONDAY. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE A WEAK WAVE
MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY AND MOVE ALONG THE CHAIN TO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN...WHICH WILL SPILL OVER INTO THE LOWER
BERING SEA AS THE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SEE A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW WITH THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM. FARTHER NORTH IN THE BERING
THEY WILL SEE A WINTRY MIX DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY
THURSDAY THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE MOVED NEAR
KODIAK ISLAND. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA WILL BE IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE NEXT NORTH
PACIFIC LOW APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...130 131 132 150 179.
         HVY FREEZING SPRAY 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...PD




000
FXAK68 PAFC 270034
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
434 PM AKDT THU MAR 26 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A LOOK AT THE MORNING WEATHER MAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC...WITH APPROXIMATE TROUGH
AXIS THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE STORM THAT HAD MOVED UP
TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND YESTERDAY HAS NOW WEAKENED...AND SENSIBLE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION IS NOW DICTATED PRIMARILY BY THE
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE FEATURES MOVING AROUND A MEAN LOW
POSITION SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. CROSS-BARRIER FLOW ACROSS
THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE COOK INLET
POPULATION CENTERS ALMOST ENTIRELY DRY. MEANWHILE...BETWEEN ONE-
HALF AND ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE EASTERN KENAI
PENINSULA...WITH PORTAGE AREA REPORTING CLOSER TO 2 INCHES IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS. AN AREA OF PRESSURE RISES (ISALLOBARIC MAXIMUM)
BEHIND YESTERDAYS STORM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD LOWER COOK
INLET. THIS FEATURE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN THE DOWN-INLET PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND WILL EVENTUALLY REVERSE THIS GRADIENT RESULTING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND COOK INLET BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...WEAKENING CROSS-BARRIER FLOW IS
ALLOWING SOME OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE
SUCCESS BRINGING PRECIP ALL THE WAY TO THE GROUND. PORTIONS OF
BRISTOL BAY AS WELL AS THE DELTA RECEIVED A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN/SNOW EARLIER FROM ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES. THIS
SHOWERY/INTERMITTENT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS CONTINUING
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

OUT WEST...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS. A STATIONARY AND WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO BRING STEADY RAIN WEST
OF COLD BAY AND EAST OF ATKA...INCLUDING DUTCH HARBOR...HOWEVER
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS BEGINNING TO SHOW WARMING
CLOUD TOPS AS THIS FEATURE BEGINS TO DIMINISH.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT...BUT BEYOND A DAY OR
TWO REALLY START TO STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THE PATTERN. THIS
IS NOT A HUGE SURPRISE AS THE MODELS PERFORM MUCH BETTER WHEN
THERE ARE COHERENT AND STRONG SYNOPTIC FEATURES...AS OPPOSED TO
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES MOVING IN FROM THE DATA-SPARSE OCEAN REGIONS.
IN THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST...THE LARGEST CONCERN IS
WHERE AND HOW STRONG A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP INTO THE GULF ON
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE..THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
THE MOST CONSISTENT...AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE POSITION OF THE
GEM-REGIONAL THIS MORNING. THE AFTERNOON FORECAST WILL REFLECT A
BLEND OF THESE TWO. THE NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS HAVE BEEN QUITE
INCONSISTENT...JUMPING HUNDREDS OF MILES FROM RUN-TO-RUN AS THE
MODELS STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE WHERE THE UPPER WAVES WILL BE LET ALONE
WHEN AND WHERE THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOWS WILL DEVELOP. THE MAIN
IMPACT OF THE LOW TRACK WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF A BARRIER JET
ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA EXTENDING DOWN INTO SHELIKOF
STRAIT...AND AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST OF GALE-
FORCE STRENGTH BASED ON THE ECMWF LOW POSITION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE. IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SHORT BURSTS OF WIND DURING THE EVENING...AND WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MOIST FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE REGION THROUGH FRI...WITH
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTH OF THE
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. UP TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THOMPSON PASS TONIGHT AND FRI
NIGHT..AND TURNAGAIN PASS TONIGHT.

THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE GULF FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT AND BRING RAIN TO THE COAST WITH SOME SNOW AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN.
INTERIOR AREAS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY DOWNSLOPED TO PREVENT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...FRI AND SAT)...A
COMPLEX AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPIN THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EACH WAVE
WILL BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA WITH SOME
GUSTIER WINDS...BUT NONE OF THEM IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN FOR BRISTOL BAY
UNTIL YOU GET UP INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE KILBUCK
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS ALL
SNOW IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKO VALLEY. THE GUSTIEST
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 40 MPH CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE CHANNELED
HIGHER TERRAIN OF BRISTOL BAY AND THE DELTA COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2...FRI AND
SAT)...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH FRI. WITH
LOW PRESSURE NEARLY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...THESE AREAS SHOULD
EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS BUT PLENTY OF ON AND OFF RAIN
SHOWERS. ON THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE LOW...COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
BE PULLED DOWN THROUGH THE BERING. THIS IS MAKING FOR A TIGHTER
GRADIENT AND SOME GUSTIER NORTHERNLY WINDS FROM ATKA TO DUTCH
HARBOR AND TO THE PRIBILOFS. ANY BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS FOR THE
PRIBS SHOULD BE LIMITED AS THEY WILL REMAIN ONLY ON THE FRINGE OF
THE HEAVIER QPF. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THINGS QUITE QUIET OVER THE
WESTERN BERING ON FRI BEFORE A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA ON SAT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND SHOULD HELP TO BUMP THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THIS AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE NEXT GALE
FORCE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL BE LOCATED ON THE EAST SIDE OF KODIAK
ISLAND BY SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL EXTEND ALONG
THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA EASTWARD THROUGH CAPE SUCKLING AREA.
THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THE MATSU
VALLEY AND THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL DOWNSLOPE OUT RESULTING IN
DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY MONDAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY BEFORE DISSIPATING BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ALL IN THE
FORM OF RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL REGION EXCEPT MIXING WITH SNOW AT
TIMES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE INLAND AREAS. THE SURFACE FLOW
WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED WARM
TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION.

THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN IN PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE KODIAK ISLAND AREA BEFORE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF BY MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND RAIN ALONG THE EASTERN ALEUTAINS...THE BRISTOL BAY AREA
THROUGH THE MONDAY. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE A WEAK WAVE
MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY AND MOVE ALONG THE CHAIN TO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN...WHICH WILL SPILL OVER INTO THE LOWER
BERING SEA AS THE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SEE A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW WITH THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM. FARTHER NORTH IN THE BERING
THEY WILL SEE A WINTRY MIX DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY
THURSDAY THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE MOVED NEAR
KODIAK ISLAND. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA WILL BE IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE NEXT NORTH
PACIFIC LOW APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...130 131 132 150 179.
         HVY FREEZING SPRAY 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...PD





000
FXAK68 PAFC 270034
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
434 PM AKDT THU MAR 26 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A LOOK AT THE MORNING WEATHER MAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC...WITH APPROXIMATE TROUGH
AXIS THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE STORM THAT HAD MOVED UP
TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND YESTERDAY HAS NOW WEAKENED...AND SENSIBLE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION IS NOW DICTATED PRIMARILY BY THE
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE FEATURES MOVING AROUND A MEAN LOW
POSITION SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. CROSS-BARRIER FLOW ACROSS
THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE COOK INLET
POPULATION CENTERS ALMOST ENTIRELY DRY. MEANWHILE...BETWEEN ONE-
HALF AND ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE EASTERN KENAI
PENINSULA...WITH PORTAGE AREA REPORTING CLOSER TO 2 INCHES IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS. AN AREA OF PRESSURE RISES (ISALLOBARIC MAXIMUM)
BEHIND YESTERDAYS STORM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD LOWER COOK
INLET. THIS FEATURE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN THE DOWN-INLET PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND WILL EVENTUALLY REVERSE THIS GRADIENT RESULTING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND COOK INLET BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...WEAKENING CROSS-BARRIER FLOW IS
ALLOWING SOME OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE
SUCCESS BRINGING PRECIP ALL THE WAY TO THE GROUND. PORTIONS OF
BRISTOL BAY AS WELL AS THE DELTA RECEIVED A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN/SNOW EARLIER FROM ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES. THIS
SHOWERY/INTERMITTENT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS CONTINUING
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

OUT WEST...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS. A STATIONARY AND WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO BRING STEADY RAIN WEST
OF COLD BAY AND EAST OF ATKA...INCLUDING DUTCH HARBOR...HOWEVER
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS BEGINNING TO SHOW WARMING
CLOUD TOPS AS THIS FEATURE BEGINS TO DIMINISH.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT...BUT BEYOND A DAY OR
TWO REALLY START TO STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THE PATTERN. THIS
IS NOT A HUGE SURPRISE AS THE MODELS PERFORM MUCH BETTER WHEN
THERE ARE COHERENT AND STRONG SYNOPTIC FEATURES...AS OPPOSED TO
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES MOVING IN FROM THE DATA-SPARSE OCEAN REGIONS.
IN THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST...THE LARGEST CONCERN IS
WHERE AND HOW STRONG A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP INTO THE GULF ON
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE..THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
THE MOST CONSISTENT...AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE POSITION OF THE
GEM-REGIONAL THIS MORNING. THE AFTERNOON FORECAST WILL REFLECT A
BLEND OF THESE TWO. THE NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS HAVE BEEN QUITE
INCONSISTENT...JUMPING HUNDREDS OF MILES FROM RUN-TO-RUN AS THE
MODELS STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE WHERE THE UPPER WAVES WILL BE LET ALONE
WHEN AND WHERE THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOWS WILL DEVELOP. THE MAIN
IMPACT OF THE LOW TRACK WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF A BARRIER JET
ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA EXTENDING DOWN INTO SHELIKOF
STRAIT...AND AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST OF GALE-
FORCE STRENGTH BASED ON THE ECMWF LOW POSITION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE. IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SHORT BURSTS OF WIND DURING THE EVENING...AND WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MOIST FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE REGION THROUGH FRI...WITH
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTH OF THE
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. UP TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THOMPSON PASS TONIGHT AND FRI
NIGHT..AND TURNAGAIN PASS TONIGHT.

THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE GULF FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT AND BRING RAIN TO THE COAST WITH SOME SNOW AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN.
INTERIOR AREAS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY DOWNSLOPED TO PREVENT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...FRI AND SAT)...A
COMPLEX AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPIN THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EACH WAVE
WILL BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA WITH SOME
GUSTIER WINDS...BUT NONE OF THEM IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN FOR BRISTOL BAY
UNTIL YOU GET UP INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE KILBUCK
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS ALL
SNOW IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKO VALLEY. THE GUSTIEST
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 40 MPH CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE CHANNELED
HIGHER TERRAIN OF BRISTOL BAY AND THE DELTA COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2...FRI AND
SAT)...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH FRI. WITH
LOW PRESSURE NEARLY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...THESE AREAS SHOULD
EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS BUT PLENTY OF ON AND OFF RAIN
SHOWERS. ON THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE LOW...COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
BE PULLED DOWN THROUGH THE BERING. THIS IS MAKING FOR A TIGHTER
GRADIENT AND SOME GUSTIER NORTHERNLY WINDS FROM ATKA TO DUTCH
HARBOR AND TO THE PRIBILOFS. ANY BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS FOR THE
PRIBS SHOULD BE LIMITED AS THEY WILL REMAIN ONLY ON THE FRINGE OF
THE HEAVIER QPF. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THINGS QUITE QUIET OVER THE
WESTERN BERING ON FRI BEFORE A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA ON SAT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND SHOULD HELP TO BUMP THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THIS AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE NEXT GALE
FORCE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL BE LOCATED ON THE EAST SIDE OF KODIAK
ISLAND BY SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL EXTEND ALONG
THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA EASTWARD THROUGH CAPE SUCKLING AREA.
THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THE MATSU
VALLEY AND THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL DOWNSLOPE OUT RESULTING IN
DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY MONDAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY BEFORE DISSIPATING BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ALL IN THE
FORM OF RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL REGION EXCEPT MIXING WITH SNOW AT
TIMES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE INLAND AREAS. THE SURFACE FLOW
WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED WARM
TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION.

THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN IN PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE KODIAK ISLAND AREA BEFORE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF BY MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND RAIN ALONG THE EASTERN ALEUTAINS...THE BRISTOL BAY AREA
THROUGH THE MONDAY. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE A WEAK WAVE
MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY AND MOVE ALONG THE CHAIN TO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN...WHICH WILL SPILL OVER INTO THE LOWER
BERING SEA AS THE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SEE A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW WITH THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM. FARTHER NORTH IN THE BERING
THEY WILL SEE A WINTRY MIX DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY
THURSDAY THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE MOVED NEAR
KODIAK ISLAND. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA WILL BE IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE NEXT NORTH
PACIFIC LOW APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...130 131 132 150 179.
         HVY FREEZING SPRAY 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...PD




000
FXAK68 PAFC 270034
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
434 PM AKDT THU MAR 26 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A LOOK AT THE MORNING WEATHER MAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC...WITH APPROXIMATE TROUGH
AXIS THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE STORM THAT HAD MOVED UP
TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND YESTERDAY HAS NOW WEAKENED...AND SENSIBLE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION IS NOW DICTATED PRIMARILY BY THE
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE FEATURES MOVING AROUND A MEAN LOW
POSITION SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. CROSS-BARRIER FLOW ACROSS
THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE COOK INLET
POPULATION CENTERS ALMOST ENTIRELY DRY. MEANWHILE...BETWEEN ONE-
HALF AND ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE EASTERN KENAI
PENINSULA...WITH PORTAGE AREA REPORTING CLOSER TO 2 INCHES IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS. AN AREA OF PRESSURE RISES (ISALLOBARIC MAXIMUM)
BEHIND YESTERDAYS STORM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD LOWER COOK
INLET. THIS FEATURE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN THE DOWN-INLET PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND WILL EVENTUALLY REVERSE THIS GRADIENT RESULTING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND COOK INLET BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...WEAKENING CROSS-BARRIER FLOW IS
ALLOWING SOME OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE
SUCCESS BRINGING PRECIP ALL THE WAY TO THE GROUND. PORTIONS OF
BRISTOL BAY AS WELL AS THE DELTA RECEIVED A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN/SNOW EARLIER FROM ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES. THIS
SHOWERY/INTERMITTENT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS CONTINUING
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

OUT WEST...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS. A STATIONARY AND WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO BRING STEADY RAIN WEST
OF COLD BAY AND EAST OF ATKA...INCLUDING DUTCH HARBOR...HOWEVER
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS BEGINNING TO SHOW WARMING
CLOUD TOPS AS THIS FEATURE BEGINS TO DIMINISH.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT...BUT BEYOND A DAY OR
TWO REALLY START TO STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THE PATTERN. THIS
IS NOT A HUGE SURPRISE AS THE MODELS PERFORM MUCH BETTER WHEN
THERE ARE COHERENT AND STRONG SYNOPTIC FEATURES...AS OPPOSED TO
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES MOVING IN FROM THE DATA-SPARSE OCEAN REGIONS.
IN THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST...THE LARGEST CONCERN IS
WHERE AND HOW STRONG A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP INTO THE GULF ON
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE..THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
THE MOST CONSISTENT...AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE POSITION OF THE
GEM-REGIONAL THIS MORNING. THE AFTERNOON FORECAST WILL REFLECT A
BLEND OF THESE TWO. THE NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS HAVE BEEN QUITE
INCONSISTENT...JUMPING HUNDREDS OF MILES FROM RUN-TO-RUN AS THE
MODELS STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE WHERE THE UPPER WAVES WILL BE LET ALONE
WHEN AND WHERE THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOWS WILL DEVELOP. THE MAIN
IMPACT OF THE LOW TRACK WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF A BARRIER JET
ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA EXTENDING DOWN INTO SHELIKOF
STRAIT...AND AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST OF GALE-
FORCE STRENGTH BASED ON THE ECMWF LOW POSITION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE. IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SHORT BURSTS OF WIND DURING THE EVENING...AND WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MOIST FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE REGION THROUGH FRI...WITH
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTH OF THE
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. UP TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THOMPSON PASS TONIGHT AND FRI
NIGHT..AND TURNAGAIN PASS TONIGHT.

THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE GULF FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT AND BRING RAIN TO THE COAST WITH SOME SNOW AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN.
INTERIOR AREAS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY DOWNSLOPED TO PREVENT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...FRI AND SAT)...A
COMPLEX AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPIN THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EACH WAVE
WILL BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA WITH SOME
GUSTIER WINDS...BUT NONE OF THEM IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN FOR BRISTOL BAY
UNTIL YOU GET UP INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE KILBUCK
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS ALL
SNOW IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKO VALLEY. THE GUSTIEST
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 40 MPH CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE CHANNELED
HIGHER TERRAIN OF BRISTOL BAY AND THE DELTA COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2...FRI AND
SAT)...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH FRI. WITH
LOW PRESSURE NEARLY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...THESE AREAS SHOULD
EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS BUT PLENTY OF ON AND OFF RAIN
SHOWERS. ON THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE LOW...COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
BE PULLED DOWN THROUGH THE BERING. THIS IS MAKING FOR A TIGHTER
GRADIENT AND SOME GUSTIER NORTHERNLY WINDS FROM ATKA TO DUTCH
HARBOR AND TO THE PRIBILOFS. ANY BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS FOR THE
PRIBS SHOULD BE LIMITED AS THEY WILL REMAIN ONLY ON THE FRINGE OF
THE HEAVIER QPF. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THINGS QUITE QUIET OVER THE
WESTERN BERING ON FRI BEFORE A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA ON SAT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND SHOULD HELP TO BUMP THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THIS AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE NEXT GALE
FORCE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL BE LOCATED ON THE EAST SIDE OF KODIAK
ISLAND BY SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL EXTEND ALONG
THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA EASTWARD THROUGH CAPE SUCKLING AREA.
THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THE MATSU
VALLEY AND THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL DOWNSLOPE OUT RESULTING IN
DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY MONDAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY BEFORE DISSIPATING BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ALL IN THE
FORM OF RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL REGION EXCEPT MIXING WITH SNOW AT
TIMES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE INLAND AREAS. THE SURFACE FLOW
WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED WARM
TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION.

THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN IN PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE KODIAK ISLAND AREA BEFORE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF BY MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND RAIN ALONG THE EASTERN ALEUTAINS...THE BRISTOL BAY AREA
THROUGH THE MONDAY. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE A WEAK WAVE
MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY AND MOVE ALONG THE CHAIN TO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN...WHICH WILL SPILL OVER INTO THE LOWER
BERING SEA AS THE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SEE A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW WITH THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM. FARTHER NORTH IN THE BERING
THEY WILL SEE A WINTRY MIX DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY
THURSDAY THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE MOVED NEAR
KODIAK ISLAND. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA WILL BE IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE NEXT NORTH
PACIFIC LOW APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...130 131 132 150 179.
         HVY FREEZING SPRAY 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...PD





000
FXAK68 PAFC 261300
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT THU MAR 26 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IMPACTING THE REGION THIS MORNING IS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. THIS
LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
WHICH HAS DISPLACED THE MAINLAND RIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORY. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS SPREADING RAIN OVER
KODIAK ISLAND AND THE GULF COAST...WITH AN AREA OF GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS IS SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING BRINGING RAIN TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SHORT TERM AGREEMENT AND HAVE CONVERGED
SOMEWHAT ON A SOLUTION FOR THE PRIMARY LOW AS IT TRACKS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF TODAY...BRINGING THE LOW CENTER OVER KODIAK ISLAND
LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE NEW LOW
FORMING SOUTH OF THE AKPEN. GREATER DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE BY
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC LOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE GULF ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR
TO THE CURRENT LOW. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE THE BIGGEST OUTLIER
WITH THIS FEATURE...AND THUS PREFERRED A GFS/EC SOLUTION FOR THE
FORECAST. ALSO UTILIZED THE CANADIAN REGIONAL MODEL IN THE FIRST
36 HOURS FOR FINER DETAIL WITH WINDS OVER THE BERING SEA AND
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (TODAY AND FRIDAY)...
THE LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE GULF COAST WITH ONLY SOME SHOWERS MAKING IN INLAND AS THE AIR
ONE THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS IS MUCH DRYER WITH DEWPOINTS
20 TO 25 DEGREES LOWER THAN COASTAL STATIONS THIS MORNING. THESE
DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS MORE MOISTURE FROM
THIS LOW PUSHES INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY BUT THEN START TO SWITCH
TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS THE
FRONT PUSHES NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME STRONG
WINDS IN TURNAGAIN ARM THIS AFTERNOON BUT WINDS WILL NOT COME INTO
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE
MATANUSKA AREA MAY ACTUALLY SEE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL DOES WHICH IS COMMON IN THIS PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (TODAY AND FRIDAY)...
THE MAINLAND CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF. A
COUPLE EMBEDDED WAVES IN THE FLOW ARE TRYING TO FORCE SOME
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA BUT MOST OF IT APPEARS TO BE VIRGA AS
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW KEEPS RESUPPLYING DRY AIR FROM DOWNSLOPE
FLOW. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A BIT
BETTER FORCING ALOFT AND A MOISTER SOUTHEAST FLOW...HOWEVER...DEEP
LAYER CROSS BARRIER FLOW STILL EXISTS OVER THE ALEUTIAN RANGE SO A
LARGE SWATH OF THE INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY ZONE WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THIS PATTERN WILL BE WEST OF
DILLINGHAM WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE AHKLUN/KILBUCK RANGES WILL
PROMOTE RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON FRIDAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT ON FRIDAY STRONG GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FOR
MOST OF THE INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY ZONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (TODAY AND FRIDAY)...
THE WARM FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL BERING SEA
KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTAINS
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW TO THE WEST. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
BERING SEA WILL RESIDE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND A MORE SHOWERY
REGIME THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE SECOND GALE FORCE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED FROM KODIAK ISLAND NORTHWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST BUT SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT OVER THE
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS INTO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. OTHERWISE...THE MATSU
VALLEY AND THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL DOWNSLOPE RESULTING IN DRIER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY MONDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ALONG THE COASTAL REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CHUGACH AND KENAI
MOUNTAINS WILL AGAIN KEEP MAJORITY OF INLAND AREAS DRY EXCEPT FOR
SOME SLOP-OVER RAIN SHOWERS MAKING IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE
THE LOW DISSIPATES BY LATE TUESDAY.

THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS...REMAIN IN PERSISTENT NORTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EASTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS AND THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA WILL RECEIVE THE EFFECTS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
LOW AS IT MOVES NEAR KODIAK ISLAND. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
OVER INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE WEEK. BY
SATURDAY THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKS TOWARDS KODIAK ISLAND.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ALONG
THE EASTERN ALEUTAINS AND THE BRISTOL BAY AREA. BY MONDAY A SERIES
OF WEAK WAVES WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND MOVE ALONG THE
CHAIN TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN...WHICH WILL SPILL OVER INTO THE
LOWER BERING SEA AS THE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. FARTHER NORTH IN THE BERING THEY WILL SEE A WINTRY MIX
DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 130 132 139
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML
LONG TERM...PD




000
FXAK68 PAFC 261300
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT THU MAR 26 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IMPACTING THE REGION THIS MORNING IS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. THIS
LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
WHICH HAS DISPLACED THE MAINLAND RIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORY. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS SPREADING RAIN OVER
KODIAK ISLAND AND THE GULF COAST...WITH AN AREA OF GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS IS SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING BRINGING RAIN TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SHORT TERM AGREEMENT AND HAVE CONVERGED
SOMEWHAT ON A SOLUTION FOR THE PRIMARY LOW AS IT TRACKS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF TODAY...BRINGING THE LOW CENTER OVER KODIAK ISLAND
LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE NEW LOW
FORMING SOUTH OF THE AKPEN. GREATER DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE BY
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC LOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE GULF ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR
TO THE CURRENT LOW. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE THE BIGGEST OUTLIER
WITH THIS FEATURE...AND THUS PREFERRED A GFS/EC SOLUTION FOR THE
FORECAST. ALSO UTILIZED THE CANADIAN REGIONAL MODEL IN THE FIRST
36 HOURS FOR FINER DETAIL WITH WINDS OVER THE BERING SEA AND
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (TODAY AND FRIDAY)...
THE LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE GULF COAST WITH ONLY SOME SHOWERS MAKING IN INLAND AS THE AIR
ONE THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS IS MUCH DRYER WITH DEWPOINTS
20 TO 25 DEGREES LOWER THAN COASTAL STATIONS THIS MORNING. THESE
DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS MORE MOISTURE FROM
THIS LOW PUSHES INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY BUT THEN START TO SWITCH
TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS THE
FRONT PUSHES NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME STRONG
WINDS IN TURNAGAIN ARM THIS AFTERNOON BUT WINDS WILL NOT COME INTO
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE
MATANUSKA AREA MAY ACTUALLY SEE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL DOES WHICH IS COMMON IN THIS PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (TODAY AND FRIDAY)...
THE MAINLAND CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF. A
COUPLE EMBEDDED WAVES IN THE FLOW ARE TRYING TO FORCE SOME
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA BUT MOST OF IT APPEARS TO BE VIRGA AS
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW KEEPS RESUPPLYING DRY AIR FROM DOWNSLOPE
FLOW. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A BIT
BETTER FORCING ALOFT AND A MOISTER SOUTHEAST FLOW...HOWEVER...DEEP
LAYER CROSS BARRIER FLOW STILL EXISTS OVER THE ALEUTIAN RANGE SO A
LARGE SWATH OF THE INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY ZONE WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THIS PATTERN WILL BE WEST OF
DILLINGHAM WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE AHKLUN/KILBUCK RANGES WILL
PROMOTE RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON FRIDAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT ON FRIDAY STRONG GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FOR
MOST OF THE INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY ZONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (TODAY AND FRIDAY)...
THE WARM FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL BERING SEA
KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTAINS
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW TO THE WEST. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
BERING SEA WILL RESIDE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND A MORE SHOWERY
REGIME THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE SECOND GALE FORCE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED FROM KODIAK ISLAND NORTHWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST BUT SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT OVER THE
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS INTO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. OTHERWISE...THE MATSU
VALLEY AND THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL DOWNSLOPE RESULTING IN DRIER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY MONDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ALONG THE COASTAL REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CHUGACH AND KENAI
MOUNTAINS WILL AGAIN KEEP MAJORITY OF INLAND AREAS DRY EXCEPT FOR
SOME SLOP-OVER RAIN SHOWERS MAKING IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE
THE LOW DISSIPATES BY LATE TUESDAY.

THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS...REMAIN IN PERSISTENT NORTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EASTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS AND THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA WILL RECEIVE THE EFFECTS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
LOW AS IT MOVES NEAR KODIAK ISLAND. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
OVER INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE WEEK. BY
SATURDAY THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKS TOWARDS KODIAK ISLAND.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ALONG
THE EASTERN ALEUTAINS AND THE BRISTOL BAY AREA. BY MONDAY A SERIES
OF WEAK WAVES WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND MOVE ALONG THE
CHAIN TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN...WHICH WILL SPILL OVER INTO THE
LOWER BERING SEA AS THE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. FARTHER NORTH IN THE BERING THEY WILL SEE A WINTRY MIX
DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 130 132 139
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML
LONG TERM...PD





000
FXAK68 PAFC 261300
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT THU MAR 26 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IMPACTING THE REGION THIS MORNING IS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. THIS
LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
WHICH HAS DISPLACED THE MAINLAND RIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORY. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS SPREADING RAIN OVER
KODIAK ISLAND AND THE GULF COAST...WITH AN AREA OF GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS IS SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING BRINGING RAIN TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SHORT TERM AGREEMENT AND HAVE CONVERGED
SOMEWHAT ON A SOLUTION FOR THE PRIMARY LOW AS IT TRACKS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF TODAY...BRINGING THE LOW CENTER OVER KODIAK ISLAND
LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE NEW LOW
FORMING SOUTH OF THE AKPEN. GREATER DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE BY
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC LOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE GULF ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR
TO THE CURRENT LOW. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE THE BIGGEST OUTLIER
WITH THIS FEATURE...AND THUS PREFERRED A GFS/EC SOLUTION FOR THE
FORECAST. ALSO UTILIZED THE CANADIAN REGIONAL MODEL IN THE FIRST
36 HOURS FOR FINER DETAIL WITH WINDS OVER THE BERING SEA AND
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (TODAY AND FRIDAY)...
THE LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE GULF COAST WITH ONLY SOME SHOWERS MAKING IN INLAND AS THE AIR
ONE THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS IS MUCH DRYER WITH DEWPOINTS
20 TO 25 DEGREES LOWER THAN COASTAL STATIONS THIS MORNING. THESE
DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS MORE MOISTURE FROM
THIS LOW PUSHES INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY BUT THEN START TO SWITCH
TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS THE
FRONT PUSHES NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME STRONG
WINDS IN TURNAGAIN ARM THIS AFTERNOON BUT WINDS WILL NOT COME INTO
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE
MATANUSKA AREA MAY ACTUALLY SEE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL DOES WHICH IS COMMON IN THIS PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (TODAY AND FRIDAY)...
THE MAINLAND CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF. A
COUPLE EMBEDDED WAVES IN THE FLOW ARE TRYING TO FORCE SOME
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA BUT MOST OF IT APPEARS TO BE VIRGA AS
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW KEEPS RESUPPLYING DRY AIR FROM DOWNSLOPE
FLOW. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A BIT
BETTER FORCING ALOFT AND A MOISTER SOUTHEAST FLOW...HOWEVER...DEEP
LAYER CROSS BARRIER FLOW STILL EXISTS OVER THE ALEUTIAN RANGE SO A
LARGE SWATH OF THE INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY ZONE WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THIS PATTERN WILL BE WEST OF
DILLINGHAM WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE AHKLUN/KILBUCK RANGES WILL
PROMOTE RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON FRIDAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT ON FRIDAY STRONG GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FOR
MOST OF THE INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY ZONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (TODAY AND FRIDAY)...
THE WARM FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL BERING SEA
KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTAINS
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW TO THE WEST. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
BERING SEA WILL RESIDE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND A MORE SHOWERY
REGIME THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE SECOND GALE FORCE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED FROM KODIAK ISLAND NORTHWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST BUT SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT OVER THE
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS INTO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. OTHERWISE...THE MATSU
VALLEY AND THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL DOWNSLOPE RESULTING IN DRIER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY MONDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ALONG THE COASTAL REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CHUGACH AND KENAI
MOUNTAINS WILL AGAIN KEEP MAJORITY OF INLAND AREAS DRY EXCEPT FOR
SOME SLOP-OVER RAIN SHOWERS MAKING IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE
THE LOW DISSIPATES BY LATE TUESDAY.

THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS...REMAIN IN PERSISTENT NORTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EASTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS AND THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA WILL RECEIVE THE EFFECTS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
LOW AS IT MOVES NEAR KODIAK ISLAND. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
OVER INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE WEEK. BY
SATURDAY THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKS TOWARDS KODIAK ISLAND.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ALONG
THE EASTERN ALEUTAINS AND THE BRISTOL BAY AREA. BY MONDAY A SERIES
OF WEAK WAVES WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND MOVE ALONG THE
CHAIN TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN...WHICH WILL SPILL OVER INTO THE
LOWER BERING SEA AS THE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. FARTHER NORTH IN THE BERING THEY WILL SEE A WINTRY MIX
DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 130 132 139
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML
LONG TERM...PD





000
FXAK68 PAFC 261300
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT THU MAR 26 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IMPACTING THE REGION THIS MORNING IS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. THIS
LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
WHICH HAS DISPLACED THE MAINLAND RIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORY. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS SPREADING RAIN OVER
KODIAK ISLAND AND THE GULF COAST...WITH AN AREA OF GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS IS SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING BRINGING RAIN TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SHORT TERM AGREEMENT AND HAVE CONVERGED
SOMEWHAT ON A SOLUTION FOR THE PRIMARY LOW AS IT TRACKS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF TODAY...BRINGING THE LOW CENTER OVER KODIAK ISLAND
LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE NEW LOW
FORMING SOUTH OF THE AKPEN. GREATER DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE BY
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC LOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE GULF ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR
TO THE CURRENT LOW. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE THE BIGGEST OUTLIER
WITH THIS FEATURE...AND THUS PREFERRED A GFS/EC SOLUTION FOR THE
FORECAST. ALSO UTILIZED THE CANADIAN REGIONAL MODEL IN THE FIRST
36 HOURS FOR FINER DETAIL WITH WINDS OVER THE BERING SEA AND
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (TODAY AND FRIDAY)...
THE LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE GULF COAST WITH ONLY SOME SHOWERS MAKING IN INLAND AS THE AIR
ONE THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS IS MUCH DRYER WITH DEWPOINTS
20 TO 25 DEGREES LOWER THAN COASTAL STATIONS THIS MORNING. THESE
DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS MORE MOISTURE FROM
THIS LOW PUSHES INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY BUT THEN START TO SWITCH
TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS THE
FRONT PUSHES NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME STRONG
WINDS IN TURNAGAIN ARM THIS AFTERNOON BUT WINDS WILL NOT COME INTO
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE
MATANUSKA AREA MAY ACTUALLY SEE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL DOES WHICH IS COMMON IN THIS PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (TODAY AND FRIDAY)...
THE MAINLAND CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF. A
COUPLE EMBEDDED WAVES IN THE FLOW ARE TRYING TO FORCE SOME
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA BUT MOST OF IT APPEARS TO BE VIRGA AS
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW KEEPS RESUPPLYING DRY AIR FROM DOWNSLOPE
FLOW. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A BIT
BETTER FORCING ALOFT AND A MOISTER SOUTHEAST FLOW...HOWEVER...DEEP
LAYER CROSS BARRIER FLOW STILL EXISTS OVER THE ALEUTIAN RANGE SO A
LARGE SWATH OF THE INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY ZONE WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THIS PATTERN WILL BE WEST OF
DILLINGHAM WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE AHKLUN/KILBUCK RANGES WILL
PROMOTE RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON FRIDAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT ON FRIDAY STRONG GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FOR
MOST OF THE INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY ZONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (TODAY AND FRIDAY)...
THE WARM FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL BERING SEA
KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTAINS
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW TO THE WEST. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
BERING SEA WILL RESIDE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND A MORE SHOWERY
REGIME THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE SECOND GALE FORCE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED FROM KODIAK ISLAND NORTHWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST BUT SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT OVER THE
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS INTO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. OTHERWISE...THE MATSU
VALLEY AND THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL DOWNSLOPE RESULTING IN DRIER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY MONDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ALONG THE COASTAL REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CHUGACH AND KENAI
MOUNTAINS WILL AGAIN KEEP MAJORITY OF INLAND AREAS DRY EXCEPT FOR
SOME SLOP-OVER RAIN SHOWERS MAKING IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE
THE LOW DISSIPATES BY LATE TUESDAY.

THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS...REMAIN IN PERSISTENT NORTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EASTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS AND THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA WILL RECEIVE THE EFFECTS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
LOW AS IT MOVES NEAR KODIAK ISLAND. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
OVER INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE WEEK. BY
SATURDAY THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKS TOWARDS KODIAK ISLAND.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ALONG
THE EASTERN ALEUTAINS AND THE BRISTOL BAY AREA. BY MONDAY A SERIES
OF WEAK WAVES WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND MOVE ALONG THE
CHAIN TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN...WHICH WILL SPILL OVER INTO THE
LOWER BERING SEA AS THE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. FARTHER NORTH IN THE BERING THEY WILL SEE A WINTRY MIX
DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 130 132 139
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML
LONG TERM...PD




000
FXAK68 PAFC 260024
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
424 PM AKDT WED MAR 25 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC. THE MAIN FEATURE WITHIN THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SPINNING ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND. THIS LOW IS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND AND UP ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST. A SEASONABLY STRONG 130 KT JET IS CLIMBING OUT OF THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH AND HEADING INTO THE PANHANDLE...AND FOR ALL
INTENTS AND PURPOSES IS NOW TOO FAR EAST TO IMPART ANY ADDITIONAL
ENERGY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK. AS A
RESULT...THE STORM IS NOW ENTERING ITS WEAKENING PHASE.

THIS STORM HAS DISLODGED THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAD BEEN IN
CONTROL OF SOUTHERN ALASKA WEATHER FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND IN
FACT THE STRENGTH AND PERSISTENCE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN IS
WHAT IS ALLOWING WINDS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THIS FRONT
THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE WITH A LOW IN THE 970S MB RANGE. STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM THE BARREN ISLANDS DOWN SHELIKOF
STRAIT...WITH A BROAD AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GULF AND KODIAK ISLAND. INLAND AREAS REMAIN DRY...THOUGH MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
POPULATION CENTERS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY ARE ALREADY MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING AS EXPECTED. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TO THE WEST...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF RETURNS OVER
THE BRISTOL BAY AREA...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS PRECIP IS NOT
REACHING THE GROUND AS GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO RESUPPLY
DRY AIR AT THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THIS STORM SYSTEM IS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR AND EAST OF THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS WITH WINDS AND FALLING SNOW SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
EVENING...THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NORTHWARD
AND THE SYSTEM WILL CEASE TO BE VERTICALLY STACKED. THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL BE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO THE
EXACT TIMING/RATE OF WEAKENING OF THE CORRESPONDING UPPER
CIRCULATION. THE GFS IS ON THE SOUTH END OF THE SCALE...AND PASSES
THE LOW OVER THE SOUTH END OF KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS THE OTHER END OF THE SCALE AND TAKES THE LOW OVER
NORTHERN KODIAK ISLAND AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN COOK INLET. THE
NAM AND GEM ARE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE...BUT CLOSER TO THE
NORTHERN SOLUTION. THE MAIN REASON THIS DISCREPANCY IS IMPORTANT
IS BECAUSE IT WILL AFFECT HOW STRONG THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY WILL BE TOMORROW. CURRENT
FORECAST IS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN END OF THIS SPECTRUM...AND
WITH EACH MODEL MORE-OR-LESS HOLDING ITS GROUND...WILL STICK
PRETTY CLOSE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE LEADING PORTION OF A WELL WRAPPED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS TO THE NORTH GULF COAST THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE
WINDS ARE AFFECTING THE MATANUSKA VALLEY WITH RED FLAG CRITERIA IN
THE RANGE OF 25 PERCENT RH AND 25 MPH WINDS. RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER THIS EVENING AND ALLOW TO WARNING TO EXPIRE.

THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH
SOME SHOWERS CROSSING THE CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH
DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP THESE SHOWERS TO A MINIMUM. ON THU THE LOW
AND REMAINDER OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE OVER KODIAK ISLAND.
THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND LESSEN THE
DOWNSLOPING EFFECT. IN ADDITION IT WILL ALLOW SOUTHEAST WINDS OUT
OF THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY TO DEVELOP AND LOWER RH VALUES INTO THE
UPPER 30 PERCENT RANGE THU AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AND TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE FURTHER WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES OVER THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE AND INTO THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE TOMORROW. SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE COASTAL AREAS
OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY ZONE...WITH MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR OF BRISTOL BAY REMAINING DOWNSLOPED AND DRY WITH GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO FILL
IN OVER THE BRISTOL BAY AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS THE REMNANTS
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CROSSES OVER INTO THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE.
THESE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY BY FRIDAY...AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD.
DESPITE THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE MAINLAND...PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN BERING THIS EVENING...WITH PERSISTENT AND GUSTY NORTHERLY
FLOW PRODUCING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING. BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN A THREAT OVER
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES TO ONE MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TOMORROW AFTERNOON ENDING THE BLOWING
SNOW THREAT FOR THE PRIBILOF ISLAND. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE EASTERN/CENTRAL BERING AND ALEUTIANS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. FURTHER WEST...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE SECOND GALE FORCE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED FROM KODIAK ISLAND NORTHWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST BUT SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT OVER THE
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS INTO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. OTHERWISE...THE MATSVALLEY
AND THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL DOWNSLOPE RESULTING IN DRIER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY MONDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ALONG THE COASTAL REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CHUGACH AND KENAI
MOUNTAINS WILL AGAIN KEEP MAJORITY OF INLAND AREAS DRY EXCEPT FOR
SOME SLOP-OVER RAIN SHOWERS MAKING IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE
THE LOW DISSIPATES BY LATE TUESDAY.

THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS...REMAIN IN PERSISTENT NORTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EASTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS AND THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA WILL RECEIVE THE EFFECTS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
LOW AS IT MOVES NEAR KODIAK ISLAND. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
OVER INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE WEEK. BY
SATURDAY THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKS TOWARDS KODIAK ISLAND.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ALONG
THE EASTERN ALEUTAINS AND THE BRISTOL BAY AREA. BY MONDAY A SERIES
OF WEAK WAVES WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND MOVE ALONG THE
CHAIN TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN...WHICH WILL SPILL OVER INTO THE
LOWER BERING SEA AS THE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. FARTHER NORTH IN THE BERING THEY WILL SEE A WINTRY MIX
DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES.


&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 130 131. GALES 119 120 125 138 139. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY 179.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING ZONE 111.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DY
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...PD





000
FXAK68 PAFC 260024
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
424 PM AKDT WED MAR 25 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC. THE MAIN FEATURE WITHIN THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SPINNING ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND. THIS LOW IS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND AND UP ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST. A SEASONABLY STRONG 130 KT JET IS CLIMBING OUT OF THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH AND HEADING INTO THE PANHANDLE...AND FOR ALL
INTENTS AND PURPOSES IS NOW TOO FAR EAST TO IMPART ANY ADDITIONAL
ENERGY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK. AS A
RESULT...THE STORM IS NOW ENTERING ITS WEAKENING PHASE.

THIS STORM HAS DISLODGED THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAD BEEN IN
CONTROL OF SOUTHERN ALASKA WEATHER FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND IN
FACT THE STRENGTH AND PERSISTENCE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN IS
WHAT IS ALLOWING WINDS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THIS FRONT
THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE WITH A LOW IN THE 970S MB RANGE. STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM THE BARREN ISLANDS DOWN SHELIKOF
STRAIT...WITH A BROAD AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GULF AND KODIAK ISLAND. INLAND AREAS REMAIN DRY...THOUGH MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
POPULATION CENTERS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY ARE ALREADY MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING AS EXPECTED. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TO THE WEST...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF RETURNS OVER
THE BRISTOL BAY AREA...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS PRECIP IS NOT
REACHING THE GROUND AS GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO RESUPPLY
DRY AIR AT THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THIS STORM SYSTEM IS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR AND EAST OF THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS WITH WINDS AND FALLING SNOW SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
EVENING...THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NORTHWARD
AND THE SYSTEM WILL CEASE TO BE VERTICALLY STACKED. THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL BE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO THE
EXACT TIMING/RATE OF WEAKENING OF THE CORRESPONDING UPPER
CIRCULATION. THE GFS IS ON THE SOUTH END OF THE SCALE...AND PASSES
THE LOW OVER THE SOUTH END OF KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS THE OTHER END OF THE SCALE AND TAKES THE LOW OVER
NORTHERN KODIAK ISLAND AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN COOK INLET. THE
NAM AND GEM ARE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE...BUT CLOSER TO THE
NORTHERN SOLUTION. THE MAIN REASON THIS DISCREPANCY IS IMPORTANT
IS BECAUSE IT WILL AFFECT HOW STRONG THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY WILL BE TOMORROW. CURRENT
FORECAST IS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN END OF THIS SPECTRUM...AND
WITH EACH MODEL MORE-OR-LESS HOLDING ITS GROUND...WILL STICK
PRETTY CLOSE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE LEADING PORTION OF A WELL WRAPPED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS TO THE NORTH GULF COAST THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE
WINDS ARE AFFECTING THE MATANUSKA VALLEY WITH RED FLAG CRITERIA IN
THE RANGE OF 25 PERCENT RH AND 25 MPH WINDS. RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER THIS EVENING AND ALLOW TO WARNING TO EXPIRE.

THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH
SOME SHOWERS CROSSING THE CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH
DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP THESE SHOWERS TO A MINIMUM. ON THU THE LOW
AND REMAINDER OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE OVER KODIAK ISLAND.
THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND LESSEN THE
DOWNSLOPING EFFECT. IN ADDITION IT WILL ALLOW SOUTHEAST WINDS OUT
OF THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY TO DEVELOP AND LOWER RH VALUES INTO THE
UPPER 30 PERCENT RANGE THU AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AND TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE FURTHER WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES OVER THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE AND INTO THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE TOMORROW. SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE COASTAL AREAS
OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY ZONE...WITH MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR OF BRISTOL BAY REMAINING DOWNSLOPED AND DRY WITH GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO FILL
IN OVER THE BRISTOL BAY AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS THE REMNANTS
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CROSSES OVER INTO THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE.
THESE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY BY FRIDAY...AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD.
DESPITE THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE MAINLAND...PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN BERING THIS EVENING...WITH PERSISTENT AND GUSTY NORTHERLY
FLOW PRODUCING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING. BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN A THREAT OVER
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES TO ONE MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TOMORROW AFTERNOON ENDING THE BLOWING
SNOW THREAT FOR THE PRIBILOF ISLAND. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE EASTERN/CENTRAL BERING AND ALEUTIANS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. FURTHER WEST...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE SECOND GALE FORCE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED FROM KODIAK ISLAND NORTHWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST BUT SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT OVER THE
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS INTO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. OTHERWISE...THE MATSVALLEY
AND THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL DOWNSLOPE RESULTING IN DRIER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY MONDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ALONG THE COASTAL REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CHUGACH AND KENAI
MOUNTAINS WILL AGAIN KEEP MAJORITY OF INLAND AREAS DRY EXCEPT FOR
SOME SLOP-OVER RAIN SHOWERS MAKING IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE
THE LOW DISSIPATES BY LATE TUESDAY.

THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS...REMAIN IN PERSISTENT NORTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EASTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS AND THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA WILL RECEIVE THE EFFECTS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
LOW AS IT MOVES NEAR KODIAK ISLAND. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
OVER INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE WEEK. BY
SATURDAY THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKS TOWARDS KODIAK ISLAND.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ALONG
THE EASTERN ALEUTAINS AND THE BRISTOL BAY AREA. BY MONDAY A SERIES
OF WEAK WAVES WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND MOVE ALONG THE
CHAIN TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN...WHICH WILL SPILL OVER INTO THE
LOWER BERING SEA AS THE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. FARTHER NORTH IN THE BERING THEY WILL SEE A WINTRY MIX
DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES.


&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 130 131. GALES 119 120 125 138 139. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY 179.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING ZONE 111.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DY
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...PD





000
FXAK68 PAFC 260024
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
424 PM AKDT WED MAR 25 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC. THE MAIN FEATURE WITHIN THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SPINNING ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND. THIS LOW IS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND AND UP ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST. A SEASONABLY STRONG 130 KT JET IS CLIMBING OUT OF THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH AND HEADING INTO THE PANHANDLE...AND FOR ALL
INTENTS AND PURPOSES IS NOW TOO FAR EAST TO IMPART ANY ADDITIONAL
ENERGY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK. AS A
RESULT...THE STORM IS NOW ENTERING ITS WEAKENING PHASE.

THIS STORM HAS DISLODGED THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAD BEEN IN
CONTROL OF SOUTHERN ALASKA WEATHER FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND IN
FACT THE STRENGTH AND PERSISTENCE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN IS
WHAT IS ALLOWING WINDS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THIS FRONT
THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE WITH A LOW IN THE 970S MB RANGE. STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM THE BARREN ISLANDS DOWN SHELIKOF
STRAIT...WITH A BROAD AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GULF AND KODIAK ISLAND. INLAND AREAS REMAIN DRY...THOUGH MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
POPULATION CENTERS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY ARE ALREADY MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING AS EXPECTED. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TO THE WEST...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF RETURNS OVER
THE BRISTOL BAY AREA...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS PRECIP IS NOT
REACHING THE GROUND AS GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO RESUPPLY
DRY AIR AT THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THIS STORM SYSTEM IS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR AND EAST OF THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS WITH WINDS AND FALLING SNOW SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
EVENING...THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NORTHWARD
AND THE SYSTEM WILL CEASE TO BE VERTICALLY STACKED. THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL BE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO THE
EXACT TIMING/RATE OF WEAKENING OF THE CORRESPONDING UPPER
CIRCULATION. THE GFS IS ON THE SOUTH END OF THE SCALE...AND PASSES
THE LOW OVER THE SOUTH END OF KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS THE OTHER END OF THE SCALE AND TAKES THE LOW OVER
NORTHERN KODIAK ISLAND AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN COOK INLET. THE
NAM AND GEM ARE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE...BUT CLOSER TO THE
NORTHERN SOLUTION. THE MAIN REASON THIS DISCREPANCY IS IMPORTANT
IS BECAUSE IT WILL AFFECT HOW STRONG THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY WILL BE TOMORROW. CURRENT
FORECAST IS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN END OF THIS SPECTRUM...AND
WITH EACH MODEL MORE-OR-LESS HOLDING ITS GROUND...WILL STICK
PRETTY CLOSE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE LEADING PORTION OF A WELL WRAPPED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS TO THE NORTH GULF COAST THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE
WINDS ARE AFFECTING THE MATANUSKA VALLEY WITH RED FLAG CRITERIA IN
THE RANGE OF 25 PERCENT RH AND 25 MPH WINDS. RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER THIS EVENING AND ALLOW TO WARNING TO EXPIRE.

THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH
SOME SHOWERS CROSSING THE CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH
DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP THESE SHOWERS TO A MINIMUM. ON THU THE LOW
AND REMAINDER OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE OVER KODIAK ISLAND.
THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND LESSEN THE
DOWNSLOPING EFFECT. IN ADDITION IT WILL ALLOW SOUTHEAST WINDS OUT
OF THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY TO DEVELOP AND LOWER RH VALUES INTO THE
UPPER 30 PERCENT RANGE THU AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AND TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE FURTHER WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES OVER THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE AND INTO THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE TOMORROW. SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE COASTAL AREAS
OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY ZONE...WITH MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR OF BRISTOL BAY REMAINING DOWNSLOPED AND DRY WITH GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO FILL
IN OVER THE BRISTOL BAY AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS THE REMNANTS
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CROSSES OVER INTO THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE.
THESE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY BY FRIDAY...AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD.
DESPITE THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE MAINLAND...PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN BERING THIS EVENING...WITH PERSISTENT AND GUSTY NORTHERLY
FLOW PRODUCING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING. BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN A THREAT OVER
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES TO ONE MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TOMORROW AFTERNOON ENDING THE BLOWING
SNOW THREAT FOR THE PRIBILOF ISLAND. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE EASTERN/CENTRAL BERING AND ALEUTIANS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. FURTHER WEST...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE SECOND GALE FORCE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED FROM KODIAK ISLAND NORTHWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST BUT SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT OVER THE
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS INTO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. OTHERWISE...THE MATSVALLEY
AND THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL DOWNSLOPE RESULTING IN DRIER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY MONDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ALONG THE COASTAL REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CHUGACH AND KENAI
MOUNTAINS WILL AGAIN KEEP MAJORITY OF INLAND AREAS DRY EXCEPT FOR
SOME SLOP-OVER RAIN SHOWERS MAKING IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE
THE LOW DISSIPATES BY LATE TUESDAY.

THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS...REMAIN IN PERSISTENT NORTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EASTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS AND THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA WILL RECEIVE THE EFFECTS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
LOW AS IT MOVES NEAR KODIAK ISLAND. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
OVER INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE WEEK. BY
SATURDAY THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKS TOWARDS KODIAK ISLAND.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ALONG
THE EASTERN ALEUTAINS AND THE BRISTOL BAY AREA. BY MONDAY A SERIES
OF WEAK WAVES WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND MOVE ALONG THE
CHAIN TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN...WHICH WILL SPILL OVER INTO THE
LOWER BERING SEA AS THE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. FARTHER NORTH IN THE BERING THEY WILL SEE A WINTRY MIX
DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES.


&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 130 131. GALES 119 120 125 138 139. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY 179.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING ZONE 111.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DY
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...PD




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