Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXAK68 PAFC 310042
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
442 PM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
CLOUD BREAKS DEVELOPED OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN ON THE
BACKSIDE OF AN WESTERLY MOVING UPPER WAVE OVERNIGHT AND ALLOWED
TEMPS TO DROP BELOW ZERO IN PLACES. THE CLOUD SHIELD IN ADVANCE OF
A WESTERLY MOVING FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE YUKON IS MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHCENTRAL HAS SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE. THERE ALSO WERE A FEW LOWER CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN INLET. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST GULF THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH LOWERING PRESSURES OVER THE GULF AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MAINLAND. THE RESULTANT GRADIENT PRODUCED STRONG
WESTERLY/NORTH GAP FLOWS THROUGH GAPS IN THE ALEUTIANS RANGE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF...BARREN ISLANDS...EASTERN KENAI/WESTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND.

OUT WEST...STRATUS BLANKETED THE DELTA AS WELL AS EASTERN
BRISTOL BAY/KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. OTHERWISE FAIR SKIES PREVAILED OVER
THE SW MAINLAND. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEVELOPING STORM CENTER NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SPREAD
NORTH/EAST TO OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN AK PEN.
RAIN WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WAS REPORTED NEAR ADAK WITH
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS IN SHEMYA. RAIN REACHED BOTH DUTCH HARBOR
OR SAINT PAUL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE DAY WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE
DEVELOPING STORM CENTER NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CENTER
ONCE IT CROSSES INTO THE BERING SEA. THE ECMWF CONSISTENTLY IS
THE FURTHER WEST...THOUGH THE 12Z RUN HAS SHIFTED THE FORECAST
CENTER EAST. THE NAM/GFS APPEAR TO BE MOVING THE CENTER TOO
QUICKLY EAST...SO FOR NOW WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE INHERITED GRID
SOLUTION OF A 00Z ECMWF/GEM GLOBAL BLEND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
ELONGATES EAST TOWARD THE GULF...BROAD WESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC. IT IS LIKELY THEN THAT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
STRETCH EASTWARD AS A TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF
FRI. MODELS IN GENERAL ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
FEATURE. TIMING OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND
INTO THE GULF ARE ALSO IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.

 &&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
GAP WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH GULF WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WEAKEN. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
COPPER RIVER BASIN TONIGHT WITH A WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE YUKON.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL LIKELY KEEP SHOWERS ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH SAT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE SOUTHERN
GULF ON FRI MORNING AND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH GULF COAST/KENAI
PEN SAT. PRECIPITATION WILL BRIEFLY START AS SNOW FRI MORNING NEAR
KODIAK THEN SHOULD RAPIDLY SHIFT TO RAIN. RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE
LIKELY ALONG THE COASTS BEFORE BECOMING RAIN. STRONG CROSS
BARRIER FLOW ACROSS THE CHUGACH WILL MITIGATE SNOW/RAIN CHANCES TO
THE LEE SIDE INITIALLY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT FRI. CROSS
BARRIER FLOW WEAKENS SAT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME SPILL OVER OF
RAIN AND SNOW INLAND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SW MAINLAND FRI WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE WILL SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT
PRECIPITATION WISE. WARM AIR SLOWLY CREEPS NORTH TO THE NORTHERN
BRISTOL BAY COAST ON FRI EVENING. RAIN IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THIS
LINE. SNOW WILL BE LIKELY TO THE NORTH WITH CHANCES OF POCKETS OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY START CLEARING ON SAT
WITH THE RETURN OF NORTHERLY FLOW.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL CROSS THE
CHAIN WEST OF ADAK THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD
TO BRISTOL BAY LATE FRI NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE TO
THE WESTERN AK PEN/PRIBILOF`S TONIGHT THEN TO BRISTOL BAY ON FRI.
EASTERLY STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
AND NORTH OF THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. WESTERLY STORMS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ALEUTIANS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER.
STORM FORCE CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FRI.


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (MON THROUGH THU)...THE MID-LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS PATTERN AS WE REMAIN IN THE FALL
TRANSITION SEASON. THE DETAILS ARE QUITE MESSY FROM START TO
FINISH...THOUGH THE GENERAL IDEA REMAINS ALMOST A "RINSE AND
REPEAT" PATTERN COMPARED WITH THE END OF THIS WEEK.

REMNANT LOW PRESSURE NEAR BRISTOL SLIDES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
AK EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BROADEN
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH WED. MEANWHILE OUT WEST...A SHARP RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE BERING TO START THE
WEEK. THIS WILL SPELL DRY CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...BUT
COULD ALSO MAKE FOR SOME TIGHTER GRADIENTS LEADING TO GUSTIER
WINDS. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA BY MID-WEEK.
AS OF NOW...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE
FILLING AND ELONGATING BY THAT TIME AND THUS...HAVE LIMITED WINDS
TO GALE- FORCE.

THE RINSE AND REPEAT PORTION OCCURS TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG-
TERM. SPRAWLING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BERING BEGINS TO INTERACT
WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. THE DETAILS REMAIN VERY
HAZY...BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE SIGNS OF ANOTHER TRIPLE POINT LOW
FORMING VERY NEAR WHERE THE ONE FOR TOMORROW IS PROGGED TO FORM.


&&

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM WARNING 155 170 172 173 174 175 176 179
GALE WARNING 119 130 131 132 150 160 165 171 177 178 180 181 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

&&

$$

RMC/MO OCT 14





000
FXAK68 PAFC 301312
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
512 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
MAINLAND THIS MORNING BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITHIN A
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ARCTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. A WEAK UPPER WAVE ROTATING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE GULF
IS BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST AND THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN...WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN NEAR CORDOVA. OUT
WEST...A WEAKENING FRONT POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN BERING
SEA IS SPREADING RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FROM DUTCH
HARBOR AND THE PRIBILOFS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A DEVELOPING
NORTH PACIFIC LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS POISED
TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN TODAY BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 130
KNOT JET STREAK AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO THE BERING....BRINGING
MORE RAIN AND A WIDE SWATH OF STORM FORCE WINDS TO MUCH OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE HANDLING OF THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW AS IT TRACKS INTO THE BERING SEA TODAY...WITH
SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES ON THE ORDER OF APPROXIMATELY 400 MILES
EMERGING IN THE POSITION OF THE LOW BY THE 36 HOUR MARK IN THE
FORECAST. THE EC AND GFS HAVE ESSENTIALLY TRADED POSITIONS OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE GFS NOW FARTHER TO THE EAST AND THE
EC REPRESENTING THE WESTERNMOST SOLUTION AND CONTINUING TO TREND
IN THAT DIRECTION WITH THE 12Z RUN THIS MORNING. THE NAM IS
CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AS IT IS MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN ANY OF THE
OTHER GUIDANCE. THEREFORE...ENDED UP MAINLY UTILIZING THE GEM FOR
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS IT DEPICTS A MORE ELONGATED LOW WHICH
SERVES AS SOMEWHAT OF A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION BETWEEN THE EC AND
GFS. THE GEM HAS ALSO DISPLAYED A SUPERIOR HANDLING OF PRESSURE
GRADIENTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AS TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF KEEPS A FEW RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE GULF COAST AND EASTERN
COPPER BASIN WITH CLEARING SKIES INLAND. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A GREATER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BERING LOW REACHES THE GULF COAST...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CHUGACH RANGE MAY KEEP ANCHORAGE AND THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL YIELD PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES
ALONG THE COAST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO PORTIONS OF BRISTOL
BAY IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING INLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE BERING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL
BE THE POWERFUL LOW WHICH WILL PASS WEST OF ADAK LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO THE MID 960 MB RANGE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ABUNDANT RAINFALL TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE
BERING...BUT THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL BE STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND INTO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.
DESPITE THE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY
WITH REGARD TO THE POSITION OF THE LOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW
WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH OF THE CHAIN THAT THE ISLANDS WILL
NOT BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY THE STRONGEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE
SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY...THE LACK OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONGEST
WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...THE HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS HAS BEEN CANCELLED AND THERE
IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS OVER THE SURROUNDING COASTAL
ZONES WILL NOT REACH HURRICANE FORCE. REGARDLESS...MUCH OF THE
CHAIN WILL STILL BE IMPACTED BY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AKPEN...WITH A LARGE
SWATH OF STORM FORCE WINDS COVERING THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS/BERING
AND GALE FORCE WINDS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE BERING LOW IS NOW EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SETUP WOULD
KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND OUTFLOW WINDS FOR THE GULF
COAST WITH GENERALLY A GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND OFFSHORE FLOW
FOR SOUTHCENTRAL.

ONCE THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF BEGINS TO DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE LONG TERM FORECAST QUICKLY SHIFTS TO A FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SIBERIAN LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN ENSEMBLE BLEND WAS USED AGAIN FOR THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH
THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
WITH MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE SIBERIAN LOW IS STILL PROJECTED
TO SPREAD INTO THE BERING OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT
WEEK...DOMINATING THE WEATHER OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM WARNING 173 174 175 176 177 412 413
         GALE WARNING 130 131 150 155 165 170 172 178 179 180 181
        185 411 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

&&

$$

CB/DEK OCT 14





000
FXAK68 PAFC 292148
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
148 PM AKDT WED OCT 29 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVELS...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE AREA OF CU OVER THE
GULF WITH SEVERAL VORTICES ROTATING AROUND THE STACKED CENTER OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. A SHORT WAVE CAN ALSO BE SEEN MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN COOPER RIVER BASIN. THE RIDGE IS STILL
HOLDING ON OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA IS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE TROUGH NEAR
KAMCHATKA DIGS.

SURFACE...
OUTFLOW WINDS PERSISTED OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS WELL AS THE
MATANUSKA(MAT) VALLEY WITH AREAS OF FINE GLACIAL SILT BEING
OBSERVED. SHOWERS WITH WAVES ROTATING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE
GULF WERE STARTING TO IMPACT THE NORTH GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUED ONCE AGAIN OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.

OUT WEST...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS PERSISTED OVER THE AK PEN. WINDS
SHIFTED TO A SW DIRECTION IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THE SW MAINLAND GENERALLY HAD DRY CONDITIONS WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW. THE DELTA WAS THE EXCEPTION WITH SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH A A WEAK TROUGH.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION (SHORT TERM)...
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS FAVORED
SOLUTIONS DIFFER BY AREA AND TIMEFRAME. IN THE EAST...THE GEM
REGIONAL IS DOING A BETTER JOB CAPTURING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND
RESULTANT MESOSCALE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF AND MAT VALLEY. THE
GFS/EC ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND SOMEWHAT REASONABLE WITH
THE SYNOPTIC TRENDS. OUT WEST...THE ECMWF WESTWARD SOLUTION IS A
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER WITH THE STRONG LOW IMPACTING THE
ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA THU AND FRI. THE OTHER MODELS(GFS/NAM/GEM
GLOBAL) ALL HAVE SIMILAR PRESSURES BUT CARRY THE LOW FURTHER EAST BY
FRI AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WIND CONDITIONS FOR THE WEST AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN BERING SEA THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE FAIRLY HIGH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH THU WITH SLIGHTER
CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS INLAND. CHANCES OF SNOW OR MIX INCREASE
INLAND ACROSS THE KENAI...ANCHORAGE BOWL...MATSU FRI AND SAT AS A
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MOVES INLAND OVER THE KENAI PEN AND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL GENERALLY HOLD TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND
MAT VALLEY...SO EXPECT SOME OUTFLOW WINDS AGAIN ACROSS PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND MAT. PRESSURE GRADIENTS (NEG ANCHORAGE TO
WHITTIER) WILL INCREASE THU AND PRODUCE GUSTY WEST WINDS NEAR
WHITTIER.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA...BUT OTHERWISE THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS OFFSHORE FLOW TAKES HOLD IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT BERING
LOW REACHES THE BRISTOL BAY COAST AND THEN ADVANCES INLAND.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA WEAKENS AS IT SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT. THE MAIN PLAYER WILL BE LARGE LOW HEADING TOWARD THE
ALEUTIANS TONIGHT. THE LOW RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES UNDER A STRONG
UPPER JET AS IT MOVES TO NEAR AMCHITKA IN THE UPPER 970S/LOWER
980S THU MORNING THEN CONTINUES TO DEEPEN INTO THE 960S OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA FRI. AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL
DISCUSSION...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON LOW POSITIONING.
HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW AFTER IT MOVES NORTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS. WILL BE ISSUING A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL AND
WEST ALEUTIANS(E OF KISKA) FOR THU. NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT WARNING
LEVEL WINDS WILL REACH UNALASKA AT THIS POINT AS THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY OF LOW TRACK. WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
EVEN WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT (INCLUDING FROM THE ENSEMBLES)
YESTERDAY...THERE STILL MANAGED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
PROJECTED LOW TRACK THIS WEEKEND FROM THE OVERNIGHT RUNS. THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION FROM THE
PRIMARY LOW THROUGH THE BERING ON FRIDAY...AND ARE NOW BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP A DISTINCT TRIPLE POINT LOW OR WEAK WAVE OVER THE GULF
BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS DID NOT CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
FOR THE GULF COAST (WHICH REMAINS RAINY THROUGH NEXT WEEK) BUT IT
NOW APPEARS THAT DOWNSLOPING FROM THE CHUGACH RANGE WILL KEEP THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MATANUSKA VALLEY MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE BERING LOW IS NOW EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
SETUP WOULD KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND OUTFLOW WINDS FOR
THE GULF COAST WITH GENERALLY A GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
OFFSHORE FLOW FOR SOUTHCENTRAL.

ONCE THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF BEGINS TO DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE LONG TERM FORECAST QUICKLY SHIFTS TO A FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SIBERIAN LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN ENSEMBLE BLEND WAS USED AGAIN FOR THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH
THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
WITH MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE SIBERIAN LOW IS STILL PROJECTED
TO SPREAD INTO THE BERING OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT
WEEK...DOMINATING THE WEATHER OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS
NEXT WEEK.


&&

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR 187 AND 191
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE 175 176 177.
         STORM 170 171 172 173 174.
         GALE 127 155 165.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

$$

RMC/DEK OCT 14





000
FXAK68 PAFC 291255
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
455 AM AKDT WED OCT 29 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND IS BEGINNING TO PULL AWAY FROM MAINLAND ALASKA THIS
MORNING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS WELL AS A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA.
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND HAS BEGUN TO TRANSITION TO DRY OFFSHORE
FLOW AS SKIES CLEAR ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT
ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. MEANWHILE...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AK BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE POKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE YUKON TERRITORY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVER THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN. OUTFLOW WINDS HAVE ALSO STARTED TO TREND DOWNWARD AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEPARTING LOW.
FARTHER WEST...A FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA HAS ENTERED THE WESTERN BERING...BRINGING RAIN
AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST BEFORE LARGER DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE WITH THE
HANDLING OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW POISED TO ENTER
THE SOUTHERN BERING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TRACK QUICKLY
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AKPEN. THE EC/NAM/GEM ARE ALL FAIRLY CLOSE IN
DEPICTING A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE LOW...WITH THE EC THE
FASTEST AND ALSO A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER IN KEEPING THE LOW
SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST. PREFERRED THE EC FOR THE MORNING FORECAST
PACKAGE AS IT APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD TODAY AS THE
LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE CORRESPONDING PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATING
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE GULF WILL BRING SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS
TO AREAS ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH IMPACTS OVER INLAND
LOCATIONS MAINLY LIMITED TO AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
AND POSSIBLY A FEW FLURRIES LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST INTO THURSDAY AS A
WEAK SURFACE LOW LINGERS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH FAIRLY
BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSISTING FARTHER INLAND UNTIL A FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA...BUT OTHERWISE THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS OFFSHORE FLOW TAKES
HOLD IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NEXT BERING LOW REACHES THE BRISTOL BAY COAST AND THEN
ADVANCES INLAND.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND EASTERN BERING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND COLD ADVECTION
COMES TO AN END. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...WINDS
WILL THEN SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT WORKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
BERING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY A MUCH STRONGER FRONT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE STRONG NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKS
QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING...BRINGING RAIN AND GALE/STORM
FORCE WINDS TO MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER LOW
TRACK FROM THE EASTERN BERING INTO THE GULF LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAINY AND STORMY WEATHER TO THE
GULF COAST STARTING ON FRIDAY THAT NOW APPEARS TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A TREND TOWARDS A WETTER
FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH STALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. IT IS TOO SOON TO TELL HOW
THIS MAY IMPACT SOUTHCENTRAL...BUT THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW
ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY TO SUPPORT SNOW AROUND
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW MUCH WILL BECOME A FOCUS
IN THE FORECAST LATER THIS WEEK.

THE MODELS THEN CONTINUE THE STORMIER PATTERN AS A DEEP LOW
CENTERED NEAR EASTERN SIBERIA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BERING AND
POSSIBLY ONTO THE MAINLAND BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING 150 155 165 172 173 174 175 176 177 179 185
                      412 413
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

&&

$$

CB/DEK OCT 14





000
FXAK68 PAFC 282202
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
202 PM AKDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

500MB...A STACKED LOW CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR THE AK PEN WITH A
SECONDARY CENTER OVER HAIDA GWAII. A RIDGE EXTENDED WEST FROM THE
CANADIAN YUKON TO OVER THE CENTRAL MAINLAND. A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WAS OVER THE BERING SEA WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST NEAR THE
KAMCHATKA PEN.

THE LOW NEAR THE AK PEN WEAKENS AS MOVES SOUTHEAST THEN EAST TO
OVER THE PANHANDLE THU AFTERNOON. AT THAT TIME...A BROAD TROUGH
EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAINLAND. THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
RIDGE MOVES TO THE EASTERN BERING WITH A HIGH CENTER PINCHING OFF
NEAR THE CHUKCHI SEA THU AFTERNOON. THE KAMCHATKA TROUGH ELONGATES
EAST AS A DEVELOPING CENTER MOVES OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THU
EVENING. AT THAT TIME...A BROAD WESTERLY JET SETS UP OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC.

SURFACE...
WIDESPREAD STRATUS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND FLURRIES CONTINUED OVER
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. OUTFLOW WINDS WERE EVIDENT ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST AS WELL AS THE MATANUSKA VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED SILT BLOWING OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA TO OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS.

FURTHER WEST...A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE AK PEN AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL TROUGH BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
AND RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE AK PEN. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WERE ALSO
PRESENT TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER FROM THE AK PEN TO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTAINS. WINDS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SHIFTED TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS A FRONTAL TROUGH MOVED TO THE WESTERN BERING SEA THIS
MORNING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL AGREEMENT VARIES DEPENDING ON AREA. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES OVER THE BERING
SEA AND ALEUTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE DEVELOPING LOW WHICH MOVES TO
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THU. AFTERNOON PACKAGES IN THIS REGION WILL
BE BASED IN PART ON THE GFS.

FURTHER EAST...THE GEM REGION HAS A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND DID A GOOD JOB
OF CAPTURING OUTFLOW WINDS THIS MORNING. THE ECMWF HAS THE OVER
ALL BEST SYNOPTIC HANDLING OF FEATURES AND WILL USED IN
COMBINATION WITH THE GEM REGIONAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER
TONIGHT WILL LIKELY STILL KICK OFF A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. THIS WAVE WILL DO LITTLE TO BREAK UP THE
STRATUS...BUT MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH MIXING TO RAISE CEILINGS SOME
OVER THE EASTERN BASIN. OUTFLOW WIND ACROSS THE GULF SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN AND
SUPPORTING FLOW ALOFT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. A WAVE MOVING NORTH
INTO THE NORTHER GULF ON WED AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN TO THE GULF COAST...BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT INLAND OVER THE
COASTAL/CHUGACH RANGES. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE GULF
COASTS THROUGH THU.


SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AK PEN WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON
WED. RAIN AND SNOW OVER SW ALASKA WILL MOVE SOUTH AND WEST WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN TAKE
HOLD WED AND PERSIST THROUGH THU. A DEVELOPING LOW AND FRONTAL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS WILL LIKELY BRING INCREASED
CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE AK PEN THU EVENING AND SNOW TO THE BRISTOL
BAY COAST FRI. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
PRECIPITATION.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MOST OF THE AREA IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM UNDER WEAK COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. GALE FORCE
WINDS EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN BERING SEA ALONG WITH
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC MOVES TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THU AFTERNOON AND
SOUTH OF THE PRIBILOF`S THU NIGHT. EXPECT GALES IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH WESTERLY STORMS ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FLANK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER LOW
TRACK FROM THE EASTERN BERING INTO THE GULF LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAINY AND STORMY WEATHER TO THE
GULF COAST STARTING ON FRIDAY THAT NOW APPEARS TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A TREND TOWARDS A WETTER
FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH STALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. IT IS TOO SOON TO TELL HOW
THIS MAY IMPACT SOUTHCENTRAL...BUT THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW
ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY TO SUPPORT SNOW AROUND
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW MUCH WILL BECOME A FOCUS
IN THE FORECAST LATER THIS WEEK.

THE MODELS THEN CONTINUE THE STORMIER PATTERN AS A DEEP LOW
CENTERED NEAR EASTERN SIBERIA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BERING AND
POSSIBLY ONTO THE MAINLAND BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 150 155 165 170 171 172 173 174.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

$$

RMC/DEK OCT 14





000
FXAK68 PAFC 281217
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
417 AM AKDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE COMPLEX THIS MORNING. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE POLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. THE REMNANTS OF A STRONG STORM SPINS OVER THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA. A NEW SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND IS QUICKLY BECOMING THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION ALOFT.
A NICE COMPACT CIRCULATION...THIS SYSTEM IS CALLED AN INSTANT
OCCLUSION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LAST BERING SEA STORM
STALLED OUT OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITHIN THE COLD AIR ALOFT APPROACHED THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
TAPPED IT`S ENERGY...QUICKLY DEVELOPING A CIRCULATION AND HAVING
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF A MATURE SYSTEM WITH A COMMA
HEAD AND BACK BENT OCCLUSION DESPITE AN INNOCULOUS 990 MB
PRESSURE. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THIS SYSTEM IS A QUICKER UPTICK IN
STRONG WINDS FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING
KODIAK ISLAND. THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE FRONT...OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA...IS TAKING ON DEFORMATION BAND CHARACTERISTICS
BETWEEN THE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS. AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS
RESPOND TO THE NEW SURFACE LOW...COOLER NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
PROMOTING SNOW TO BEGIN TO MIX IN AROUND THE BETHEL AREA.

FURTHER EAST...THE PATTERN IS MUCH MORE BENIGN. A CLOSED HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT SITS OVER THE CANADIAN YUKON WHILE A NORTH PACIFIC
SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE THE PANHANDLE. THE ONLY SIGNS OF FOG AND
STRATUS AROUND THE SOUTHCENTRAL EARLY THIS MORNING ARE A
PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNS...YET...OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG IN THE KNIK ARM REGION.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 48
HOURS OR SO. SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ARISE AS THE CURRENT SYSTEM
MOVES IN TO THE GULF AND ROTATES A SHORTWAVE NEAR THE NORTH GULF
COAST. CONSENSUS SAYS THERE WILL AT LEAST BE AN INVERTED TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN
ACTUAL CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE STRENGTH OF THAT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST AS WELL AS THE NATURE OF
PRECIPITATION. BOTH DOMAINS PREFERRED THE EUROPEAN MODEL WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...HIGH CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD
TODAY. THE THREAT FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS SHOULD BE VERY
REDUCED THIS MORNING FOR A FEW REASONS. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
CIRRUS OVERHEAD SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEW POINTS ARE
STARTING OFF A BIT LOWER THIS MORNING AND DEPTH OF MOISTURE OFF
THE SURFACE ARE NOT AS GREAT AS YESTERDAY EVIDENCED BY THE DEW
POINT TRACE ON THE 28TH/00Z PANC SOUNDING. LASTLY...THE SURFACE
WINDS ARE RESPONDING TO THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AROUND THE AREA...AS WELL AS A
GUSTY MATANUSKA VALLEY WIND WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRIER
AIR SOUTHWARD OVER THE KNIK ARM REGION.

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AROUND KACHEMAK BAY. THE NEXT REAL CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATIONCOMES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE GULF SYSTEM
ROTATES A WAVE NORTHWARD. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST...POSSIBLY INTO THE SOUTHERN COPPER
RIVER BASIN.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DEFORMATION ZONE SITS OVER
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS MORNING BRINGING MOST RAIN TO THE AREA
BUT SOME SNOW HAS MIXED IN AT TIMES AND IS MORE LIKELY TOWARD THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE ZONE. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE IN INTENSITY TODAY AS THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
GULF. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR MOST AREAS AS
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MOST OF THE AREA IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM UNDER WEAK COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. GALE FORCE
WINDS EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN BERING SEA ALONG WITH
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE
WESTERN BERING SEA TODAY AND SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD WHILE
WEAKENING THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING AREAS OF SNOW AND RAIN.


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
STARTING LATE THIS WEEK THERE IS NOW GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAINLAND BY THIS
WEEKEND. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH A LOW
CROSSING THE ALEUTIANS MID WEEK...WHICH IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE AT
LEAST GALE FORCE. THIS LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
BERING ON FRIDAY...AND INTO THE GULF BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

THE APPROACHING ALEUTIAN LOW WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS AND
GUSTY WINDS TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS STARTING LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM THEN LOOKS TO KEEP THE BERING
SEA AND ALEUTIANS WITH RAINY AND WINDY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE EXACT LOW PLACEMENT
AND INTENSITY IN THE GULF THIS WEEKEND...THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT THE CLEAR AND COLD PATTERN CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BECOME CLOUDY...WARMER...AND POSSIBLY WET BY
THIS WEEKEND. THE GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND WILL LIKELY SEE
RAINY AND WINDY WEATHER STARTING ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. HOW THIS SYSTEM TO SOUTHCENTRAL IS STILL UNKNOWN...AS
LOW PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST.


&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 150 155 165 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

MTL OCT 14





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities