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000
FXAK68 PAFC 041416
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
516 AM AKST WED MAR 4 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE DIFFUSE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH THAT STARTED THE EVENING OVER
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK EASTWARD WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL LOW (AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION AS SEEN ON
SATELLITE AND SCATTEROMETER PASSES) RESIDING SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE KENAI
PENINSULA WITH A FEW FLURRIES FALLING TOWARD NORTHERN COOK INLET.
THE OOZ ANCHORAGE SOUNDING HINTED AT A DECENT DRY LAYER EXTENDING
VERTICALLY TO NEARLY 850 MB WHICH HAS REALLY LIMITED PRECIPITATION
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH HAS CREATED FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR FOG ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AFTER THE RECENT RAIN
AND SNOWFALL...WITH PLACES FROM DILLINGHAM TO CAPE NEWENHAM UP
TOWARD TOKSOOK BAY ALL REPORTING FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF RUSSIA CONTINUES
TO MAKE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS TOWARD THE BERING SEA THIS
MORNING. THE COLD OCCLUSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW EXTENDS SOUTH
TOWARD ADAK WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. A
WEAK WARM FRONT NEAR NIKOLSKI CONTINUES TO OCCLUDE BUT WILL LIKELY
KEEP PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AS RAIN
INITIALLY BEFORE THE COLDER AIR DIVES SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. ALL MODELS
INITIALIZED THE KAMCHATKA LOW AND ITS FRONTAL ZONE WELL WHEN
ANALYZING SURFACE WIND SPEEDS...THE 500 MB VORTICITY MAX/MIN AND
SATELLITE IMAGES. THIS BODES WELL FOR THE MORNING FORECAST AS NO
MAJOR DISCREPANCIES ARISE UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE TRACK OF A SECOND KAMCHATKA LOW EXPECTED TO SKIRT
THE NORTHERN SEA AND BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO MUCH
OF ALASKA. ONE FEATURE OF NOTE IS HOW ALL SYNOPTIC AND HI-RES
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TROUGH CONSOLIDATING ALL OF
ITS ENERGY AS IT PUSHES ON SHORE ON THURSDAY INSTEAD OF FRAGMENTING
THE ENERGY AS SEEN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY LEAD
TO A DECENT SNOW EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA. OVERALL...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MORNING
PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO LIFT A MOIST RELATIVELY WARM MARINE
AIR MASS FROM THE GULF INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THIS MORNING.
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY STEADY ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS FURTHER INLAND TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL BE STABILIZING UNDER A FLAT RIDGE TONIGHT THINK
THAT STRATUS PERSISTING AND THICKENING OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE MORE
LIKELY RESULT THAN MUCH FOG BUT WILL NEED WATCH ANY AREAS CLOSELY
THAT DO GET BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AS THE WARM RATHER MOIST LOW
LEVELS WILL BE QUITE CONDUCIVE TO FOG WITH ANY CLEARING.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT INCOMING WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND BEEN LEFT BEHIND...THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FAST
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW AS IT CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
RESIDUAL SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY AND INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL
CONTINUE EACH MORNING IN SHELTERED AREAS OR AREAS NEAR THE COAST
WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUE TO RESIDE
OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY BEING SHUNTED EAST BY
AN APPROACHING WEATHER FRONT THAT WILL ENTER SOUTHWEST ALASKA FROM
THE BERING THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING
ONSHORE THURSDAY AND SHARPEN AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND...BRINGING A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES
TOWARD FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE WEAKENING WEATHER FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE PRIBILOFS AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL QUICKLY TRACK EAST AND INLAND LATER TODAY.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BERING. THE NEXT GALE-FORCE WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE BERING THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL RACE TO
THE EASTERN BERING BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING MAINLY RAIN
BUT THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS IT MOVES EAST. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE BERING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ZONAL
FLOW IS ESTABLISHED BENEATH A STRONG POLAR JET SPANNING FROM THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THIS WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND AS A BROAD SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING AND MOVES INLAND NEAR THE SEWARD
PENINSULA ON SATURDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINING AN ISSUE
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AK AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR
FREEZING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY SUNDAY AS
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. AFTER THAT...MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A TRANSITION BACK TO A
MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE MAINLAND TOWARDS THE EASTERN GULF AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THIS LENDS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
NEXT WEEK...WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 173 175 176 177 178.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...CB





000
FXAK68 PAFC 040111
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
411 PM AKST TUE MAR 3 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA. THERE IS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST...STRETCHING SOUTH FROM THE YUKON
TERRITORY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE LOWER
48 STATES (CONUS). THERE IS A STRONG LOW OVER KAMCHATKA WITH A
LEADING FRONT OVER THE THE WESTERN/CENTRAL BERING SEA PUSHING
FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THERE IS
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA...BUT WITH
WEAK DYNAMICS THE PRECIPITATION IS MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AND ARE NOT CAUSING ANY DIFFICULTIES IN THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...THE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION (TYPE...AS WELL AS THE
VARIABILITY MENTIONED ABOVE) MAKES FOR A SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT
FORECAST. THEREFORE THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A PERSISTENCE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF.
WEAK UPPER WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW BRINGS RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THE GULF WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW INLAND. WINDS ACROSS
THE TURNAGAIN ARM AND NORTHERN GULF BECOME RELATIVELY LIGHT BY
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE FRONT DIMINISHES ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL. ANOTHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF THIS
EVENING WILL BE LOW IMPACT WITH MAINLY RAIN ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WHICH REMAINS OVER THE WATER THROUGH THURSDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF BACK TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF WEDNESDAY AND THEN VARY IN DIRECTION THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AN
OVERALL WEAK SURFACE PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AREA WILL SHIFT INLAND TONIGHT CONTINUING TO BRING A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW WITH IT. COOL ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE SYSTEM WILL
PROGRESSIVELY TURN MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT BEFORE RIDGING TAPERS THE PRECIPITATION OFF
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE QUICKLY THEREAFTER...REACHING THE ALASKA PENINSULA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE WEST MAINLAND COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AN ACCOMPANYING COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ONSHORE
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
OUT IN THE ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING...A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH PASSED SHEMYA
AROUND NOON CONTINUES EAST WIDESPREAD WESTERLY GALES WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND IT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BRIEF RIDGING WILL FOLLOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TURNING WINDS MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT.
THE NEXT STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM HOWEVER WILL RAPIDLY SWING INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS IT MOVES QUICKLY
EASTWARD. A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS ZONAL FLOW IS ESTABLISHED BENEATH A STRONG POLAR JET
SPANNING FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.
THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND AS A BROAD
SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING AND MOVES INLAND
NEAR THE SEWARD PENINSULA ON SATURDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE
REMAINING AN ISSUE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AK AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
HOVER NEAR FREEZING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
BY SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. AFTER
THAT...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A TRANSITION
BACK TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS OVER THE MAINLAND TOWARDS THE EASTERN GULF
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THIS LENDS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION NEXT WEEK...WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 170 173 174 175 176 177 178
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...CB





000
FXAK68 PAFC 040111
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
411 PM AKST TUE MAR 3 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA. THERE IS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST...STRETCHING SOUTH FROM THE YUKON
TERRITORY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE LOWER
48 STATES (CONUS). THERE IS A STRONG LOW OVER KAMCHATKA WITH A
LEADING FRONT OVER THE THE WESTERN/CENTRAL BERING SEA PUSHING
FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THERE IS
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA...BUT WITH
WEAK DYNAMICS THE PRECIPITATION IS MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AND ARE NOT CAUSING ANY DIFFICULTIES IN THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...THE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION (TYPE...AS WELL AS THE
VARIABILITY MENTIONED ABOVE) MAKES FOR A SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT
FORECAST. THEREFORE THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A PERSISTENCE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF.
WEAK UPPER WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW BRINGS RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THE GULF WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW INLAND. WINDS ACROSS
THE TURNAGAIN ARM AND NORTHERN GULF BECOME RELATIVELY LIGHT BY
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE FRONT DIMINISHES ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL. ANOTHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF THIS
EVENING WILL BE LOW IMPACT WITH MAINLY RAIN ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WHICH REMAINS OVER THE WATER THROUGH THURSDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF BACK TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF WEDNESDAY AND THEN VARY IN DIRECTION THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AN
OVERALL WEAK SURFACE PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AREA WILL SHIFT INLAND TONIGHT CONTINUING TO BRING A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW WITH IT. COOL ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE SYSTEM WILL
PROGRESSIVELY TURN MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT BEFORE RIDGING TAPERS THE PRECIPITATION OFF
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE QUICKLY THEREAFTER...REACHING THE ALASKA PENINSULA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE WEST MAINLAND COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AN ACCOMPANYING COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ONSHORE
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
OUT IN THE ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING...A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH PASSED SHEMYA
AROUND NOON CONTINUES EAST WIDESPREAD WESTERLY GALES WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND IT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BRIEF RIDGING WILL FOLLOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TURNING WINDS MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT.
THE NEXT STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM HOWEVER WILL RAPIDLY SWING INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS IT MOVES QUICKLY
EASTWARD. A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS ZONAL FLOW IS ESTABLISHED BENEATH A STRONG POLAR JET
SPANNING FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.
THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND AS A BROAD
SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING AND MOVES INLAND
NEAR THE SEWARD PENINSULA ON SATURDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE
REMAINING AN ISSUE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AK AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
HOVER NEAR FREEZING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
BY SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. AFTER
THAT...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A TRANSITION
BACK TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS OVER THE MAINLAND TOWARDS THE EASTERN GULF
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THIS LENDS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION NEXT WEEK...WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 170 173 174 175 176 177 178
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...CB




000
FXAK68 PAFC 031409
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
509 AM AKST TUE MAR 3 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES WITH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED AROUND 39N 162W. THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A DEVELOPING
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND ITS SURFACE
REFLECTION HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE BERING SEA.
TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...A POTENT SHORTWAVE HAS ROUNDED THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND QUICKLY PUSHED INTO SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA OVERNIGHT. THIS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE KENAI
PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...THAT HAS NOW
PUSHED INTO ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU VALLEY. TOWARD SOUTHWEST
ALASKA...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED ONSHORE AND HAS
BROUGHT AN EXTREMELY MOIST AIR MASS OVER BETHEL AND KING SALMON
WITH PWAT VALUES (DERIVED FROM THE 00Z MARCH 3 SOUNDINGS) OF 0.54
INCHES AND 0.68 INCHES RESPECTIVELY. THESE VALUES ARE IN THE 99
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...HOWEVER IT APPEARS AS IF
CROSS BARRIER FLOW OVER THE KILBUCKS...THE AHKLUN...THE ALASKA
RANGE AND ALEUTIAN RANGE HAS BEEN EATING UP A MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION AND KEEPING CEILING MVFR OR GREATER. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EAST...CROSS BARRIER FLOW IS BEGINNING TO
WEAKEN AND PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN TO FILL IN THE PREVIOUSLY
DOWNSLOPED LOCATIONS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS REMAIN IN REMARKABLY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM. THE DIFFICULTY AS USUAL LIES WITHIN
THE DETAILS...ESPECIALLY WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS MORNING OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. WHILE MODEL SURFACE
TO 850 MB THICKNESSES HINT THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FALLING AS
RAIN ACROSS ANCHORAGE THIS MORNING...IT HAS ACTUALLY BEEN FALLING
AS LIGHT SNOW. THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WARM WHICH
WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR THE SNOW TO STEADILY TRANSITION TO RAIN
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE NEXT BIG QUESTION IS THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. WITH A WARM FRONT NOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING RAIN. OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED PRECIPITATION
TYPE ISSUES...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PUSHING OFF KAMCHATKA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A BLAST OF MUCH
COLDER AIR FROM RUSSIA. A SECOND KAMCHATKA LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE
BERING SEA AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTHWARD ONTO THE
NORTH GULF COAST WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
GULF COAST AND SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE
CONTINUES TO BE IN DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS MORNINGS ANCHORAGE SOUNDING DOES NOT HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT WARM NOSE...HOWEVER THERE IS A DEEP SATURATED
SUPERCOOLED LIQUID WATER LAYER THAT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE TO MIX WITH THE SNOW THIS MORNING. A LIMITING FACTOR TO
THIS PRECIP WILL BE WEAK DOWNSLOPING FROM THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS AS
THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
FROM THE NORTH GULF COAST INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION FROM THIS SYSTEM AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW THE
LOW LEVELS TO WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION
OVER TO RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MAINLAND THESE SHOULD ALSO BECOME MORE
SHOWERY.

CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE INTO THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA AND WEAK RIDGING SLIDES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST COAST. THE GULF
COAST ON THE OTHER HAND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SOUTHCENTRAL CLOUDY AND
DRY...HOWEVER A FEW SLOP OVER SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN
INTENSITY AND MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AS COOLER AIR FILTERS
SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND
BRISTOL BAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN APPROACHING
WEATHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST BERING AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS INCLUDING THE AKPEN
AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL BE IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWED BY
ARRIVAL OF MAINLY COLD RAIN WITH SOME WET SNOW FROM A DECAYING
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE BERING. THIS GALE-FORCE FRONT IS CURRENTLY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS
AND WILL REACH THE CENTRAL BERING AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AS
WEAKENING BEGINS THIS EVENING BEFORE REACHING THE EASTERN BERING
AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN REACHES BRISTOL BAY
AND THE AKPEN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND ON THURSDAY
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF. THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING A SHARP TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL BRING PRECIPITATION
OVER THE COOK INLET REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH WARM AIR IS LEFT AT THE SURFACE BUT SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WAVES TRACK QUICKLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION IN ZONAL FLOW BENEATH A STRONG POLAR
JET CENTERED BETWEEN 50N AND 60N LATITUDE. A SPRAWLING LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTON SOUND REGION EARLY SATURDAY AND SPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND FOR THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE AS TEMPERATURES HOVER
NEAR FREEZING...WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKELY FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. AFTER THAT...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A
MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE MAINLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN A
RETURN TO MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE
MAINLAND.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 175 176 177 178
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 185.
         FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...CB/MTL





000
FXAK68 PAFC 031409
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
509 AM AKST TUE MAR 3 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES WITH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED AROUND 39N 162W. THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A DEVELOPING
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND ITS SURFACE
REFLECTION HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE BERING SEA.
TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...A POTENT SHORTWAVE HAS ROUNDED THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND QUICKLY PUSHED INTO SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA OVERNIGHT. THIS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE KENAI
PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...THAT HAS NOW
PUSHED INTO ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU VALLEY. TOWARD SOUTHWEST
ALASKA...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED ONSHORE AND HAS
BROUGHT AN EXTREMELY MOIST AIR MASS OVER BETHEL AND KING SALMON
WITH PWAT VALUES (DERIVED FROM THE 00Z MARCH 3 SOUNDINGS) OF 0.54
INCHES AND 0.68 INCHES RESPECTIVELY. THESE VALUES ARE IN THE 99
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...HOWEVER IT APPEARS AS IF
CROSS BARRIER FLOW OVER THE KILBUCKS...THE AHKLUN...THE ALASKA
RANGE AND ALEUTIAN RANGE HAS BEEN EATING UP A MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION AND KEEPING CEILING MVFR OR GREATER. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EAST...CROSS BARRIER FLOW IS BEGINNING TO
WEAKEN AND PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN TO FILL IN THE PREVIOUSLY
DOWNSLOPED LOCATIONS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS REMAIN IN REMARKABLY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM. THE DIFFICULTY AS USUAL LIES WITHIN
THE DETAILS...ESPECIALLY WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS MORNING OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. WHILE MODEL SURFACE
TO 850 MB THICKNESSES HINT THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FALLING AS
RAIN ACROSS ANCHORAGE THIS MORNING...IT HAS ACTUALLY BEEN FALLING
AS LIGHT SNOW. THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WARM WHICH
WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR THE SNOW TO STEADILY TRANSITION TO RAIN
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE NEXT BIG QUESTION IS THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. WITH A WARM FRONT NOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING RAIN. OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED PRECIPITATION
TYPE ISSUES...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PUSHING OFF KAMCHATKA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A BLAST OF MUCH
COLDER AIR FROM RUSSIA. A SECOND KAMCHATKA LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE
BERING SEA AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTHWARD ONTO THE
NORTH GULF COAST WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
GULF COAST AND SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE
CONTINUES TO BE IN DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS MORNINGS ANCHORAGE SOUNDING DOES NOT HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT WARM NOSE...HOWEVER THERE IS A DEEP SATURATED
SUPERCOOLED LIQUID WATER LAYER THAT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE TO MIX WITH THE SNOW THIS MORNING. A LIMITING FACTOR TO
THIS PRECIP WILL BE WEAK DOWNSLOPING FROM THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS AS
THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
FROM THE NORTH GULF COAST INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION FROM THIS SYSTEM AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW THE
LOW LEVELS TO WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION
OVER TO RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MAINLAND THESE SHOULD ALSO BECOME MORE
SHOWERY.

CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE INTO THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA AND WEAK RIDGING SLIDES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST COAST. THE GULF
COAST ON THE OTHER HAND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SOUTHCENTRAL CLOUDY AND
DRY...HOWEVER A FEW SLOP OVER SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN
INTENSITY AND MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AS COOLER AIR FILTERS
SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND
BRISTOL BAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN APPROACHING
WEATHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST BERING AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS INCLUDING THE AKPEN
AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL BE IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWED BY
ARRIVAL OF MAINLY COLD RAIN WITH SOME WET SNOW FROM A DECAYING
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE BERING. THIS GALE-FORCE FRONT IS CURRENTLY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS
AND WILL REACH THE CENTRAL BERING AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AS
WEAKENING BEGINS THIS EVENING BEFORE REACHING THE EASTERN BERING
AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN REACHES BRISTOL BAY
AND THE AKPEN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND ON THURSDAY
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF. THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING A SHARP TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL BRING PRECIPITATION
OVER THE COOK INLET REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH WARM AIR IS LEFT AT THE SURFACE BUT SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WAVES TRACK QUICKLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION IN ZONAL FLOW BENEATH A STRONG POLAR
JET CENTERED BETWEEN 50N AND 60N LATITUDE. A SPRAWLING LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTON SOUND REGION EARLY SATURDAY AND SPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND FOR THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE AS TEMPERATURES HOVER
NEAR FREEZING...WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKELY FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. AFTER THAT...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A
MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE MAINLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN A
RETURN TO MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE
MAINLAND.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 175 176 177 178
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 185.
         FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...CB/MTL




000
FXAK68 PAFC 030226 CCA
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
313 PM AKST MON MAR 2 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE CURRENT PATTERN HAS A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE. THERE IS A TROUGH
CENTERED ALONG ABOUT 170 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED LOWS. THE STRONGEST OF THESE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
KODIAK AND HAS A FRONT THAT STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND
ANOTHER NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THERE IS A NEGATIVELY
TILTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALASKA THAT STRETCHES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN CANADIAN COAST. THERE IS
ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING SEA
WITH A DEEP LOW TO THE WEST NEAR KAMCHATKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AND ARE NOT PROVIDING ANY FORECAST PROBLEMS. THIS IS OFFSET BY THE
DIFFICULTY OF FORECASTING VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES (RAIN SNOW
AND FREEZING RAIN). THEREFORE THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NEAR
NORMAL TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING
AND MOVES THE FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THE DRIER AIR MASS
CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL SLOWLY SATURATES AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAKES NORTHWARD PROGRESS. THE EASTERN KENAI AND NORTHERN
GULF LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TONIGHT
AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS CAUSE DOWNSLOPING ALONG
WEST FACING SLOPES. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PICKS UP
MOMENTUM AROUND MIDNIGHT MOVING ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA AND
THEN THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL BY MID TUESDAY MORNING. THE
CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND NORTH THROUGH THE MATANUSKA AND
SUSITNA VALLEYS. FOR THESE AREAS...PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT
STARTS OFF AS SNOW AND THEN CHANGES OVER TO RAIN WITH A WARMER AIR
MASS ADVECTING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL FROM THE GULF. THE CHANGE OVER IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR RATHER QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM SPEEDS UP
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THERE ARE AREAS THAT WILL LAG IN WARMING UP AT
THE SURFACE DUE TO TERRAIN AFFECTS AND MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE
FREEZING RAIN. ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY
THE FRONT DIMINISHES RAPIDLY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF
AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF ALASKA QUICKLY BEHIND THE FIRST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST ELSEWHERE
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING
BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION. THE BRISTOL BAY TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND
THEIR PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS ALL RAIN. THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND
COINCIDES WITH THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA. THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA REGION WILL HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE OF
PRECIPITATION WITH PERIODS OF SNOW HEADING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A
SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM FROM THE WEST
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
THE TROUGH PASSAGE BY THE EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL START
OUT AS RAIN/SNOW AND TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING MORE RAIN/SNOW TO THE BRISTOL BAY AND LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS BY TUESDAY EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK NEAR SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT PUSHING INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AREA. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BEFORE SHIFTING TO
WESTERLY WINDS BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL HAVE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS NEAR PORT MOLLER INTO THE BRISTOL BAY
AREA THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURE
THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UPSTREAM BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING SEA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BE A STORM FORCE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS NEAR SHEMYA BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A
LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE WITH GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE
WESTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TO THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE EXTENDING THROUGH THE WESTERN
BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS. BY THURSDAY THE SAME WEATHER SCENARIO WILL
OCCUR FOR THE WESTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS WITH ANOTHER NORTH
PACIFIC LOW TRACKING ALONG THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND AN ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF. AN ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF
WAVES TRACK QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION IN ZONAL FLOW
BENEATH A STRONG POLAR JET CENTERED BETWEEN 50N AND 60N LATITUDE.
THE FIRST OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE A SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WHICH WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THAT SYSTEM WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY A SPRAWLING
LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTON SOUND REGION EARLY SATURDAY AND
SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND FOR THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE AS TEMPERATURES HOVER
NEAR FREEZING...WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKELY FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. AFTER THAT...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A
MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE MAINLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN A
RETURN TO MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE
MAINLAND.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 152.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 119 120 130 131 138 139 177 178.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...CB





000
FXAK68 PAFC 030226 CCA
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
313 PM AKST MON MAR 2 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE CURRENT PATTERN HAS A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE. THERE IS A TROUGH
CENTERED ALONG ABOUT 170 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED LOWS. THE STRONGEST OF THESE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
KODIAK AND HAS A FRONT THAT STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND
ANOTHER NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THERE IS A NEGATIVELY
TILTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALASKA THAT STRETCHES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN CANADIAN COAST. THERE IS
ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING SEA
WITH A DEEP LOW TO THE WEST NEAR KAMCHATKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AND ARE NOT PROVIDING ANY FORECAST PROBLEMS. THIS IS OFFSET BY THE
DIFFICULTY OF FORECASTING VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES (RAIN SNOW
AND FREEZING RAIN). THEREFORE THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NEAR
NORMAL TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING
AND MOVES THE FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THE DRIER AIR MASS
CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL SLOWLY SATURATES AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAKES NORTHWARD PROGRESS. THE EASTERN KENAI AND NORTHERN
GULF LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TONIGHT
AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS CAUSE DOWNSLOPING ALONG
WEST FACING SLOPES. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PICKS UP
MOMENTUM AROUND MIDNIGHT MOVING ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA AND
THEN THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL BY MID TUESDAY MORNING. THE
CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND NORTH THROUGH THE MATANUSKA AND
SUSITNA VALLEYS. FOR THESE AREAS...PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT
STARTS OFF AS SNOW AND THEN CHANGES OVER TO RAIN WITH A WARMER AIR
MASS ADVECTING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL FROM THE GULF. THE CHANGE OVER IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR RATHER QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM SPEEDS UP
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THERE ARE AREAS THAT WILL LAG IN WARMING UP AT
THE SURFACE DUE TO TERRAIN AFFECTS AND MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE
FREEZING RAIN. ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY
THE FRONT DIMINISHES RAPIDLY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF
AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF ALASKA QUICKLY BEHIND THE FIRST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST ELSEWHERE
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING
BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION. THE BRISTOL BAY TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND
THEIR PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS ALL RAIN. THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND
COINCIDES WITH THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA. THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA REGION WILL HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE OF
PRECIPITATION WITH PERIODS OF SNOW HEADING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A
SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM FROM THE WEST
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
THE TROUGH PASSAGE BY THE EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL START
OUT AS RAIN/SNOW AND TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING MORE RAIN/SNOW TO THE BRISTOL BAY AND LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS BY TUESDAY EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK NEAR SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT PUSHING INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AREA. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BEFORE SHIFTING TO
WESTERLY WINDS BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL HAVE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS NEAR PORT MOLLER INTO THE BRISTOL BAY
AREA THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURE
THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UPSTREAM BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING SEA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BE A STORM FORCE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS NEAR SHEMYA BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A
LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE WITH GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE
WESTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TO THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE EXTENDING THROUGH THE WESTERN
BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS. BY THURSDAY THE SAME WEATHER SCENARIO WILL
OCCUR FOR THE WESTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS WITH ANOTHER NORTH
PACIFIC LOW TRACKING ALONG THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND AN ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF. AN ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF
WAVES TRACK QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION IN ZONAL FLOW
BENEATH A STRONG POLAR JET CENTERED BETWEEN 50N AND 60N LATITUDE.
THE FIRST OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE A SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WHICH WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THAT SYSTEM WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY A SPRAWLING
LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTON SOUND REGION EARLY SATURDAY AND
SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND FOR THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE AS TEMPERATURES HOVER
NEAR FREEZING...WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKELY FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. AFTER THAT...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A
MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE MAINLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN A
RETURN TO MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE
MAINLAND.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 152.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 119 120 130 131 138 139 177 178.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...CB




000
FXAK68 PAFC 030226 CCA
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
313 PM AKST MON MAR 2 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE CURRENT PATTERN HAS A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE. THERE IS A TROUGH
CENTERED ALONG ABOUT 170 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED LOWS. THE STRONGEST OF THESE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
KODIAK AND HAS A FRONT THAT STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND
ANOTHER NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THERE IS A NEGATIVELY
TILTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALASKA THAT STRETCHES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN CANADIAN COAST. THERE IS
ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING SEA
WITH A DEEP LOW TO THE WEST NEAR KAMCHATKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AND ARE NOT PROVIDING ANY FORECAST PROBLEMS. THIS IS OFFSET BY THE
DIFFICULTY OF FORECASTING VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES (RAIN SNOW
AND FREEZING RAIN). THEREFORE THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NEAR
NORMAL TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING
AND MOVES THE FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THE DRIER AIR MASS
CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL SLOWLY SATURATES AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAKES NORTHWARD PROGRESS. THE EASTERN KENAI AND NORTHERN
GULF LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TONIGHT
AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS CAUSE DOWNSLOPING ALONG
WEST FACING SLOPES. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PICKS UP
MOMENTUM AROUND MIDNIGHT MOVING ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA AND
THEN THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL BY MID TUESDAY MORNING. THE
CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND NORTH THROUGH THE MATANUSKA AND
SUSITNA VALLEYS. FOR THESE AREAS...PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT
STARTS OFF AS SNOW AND THEN CHANGES OVER TO RAIN WITH A WARMER AIR
MASS ADVECTING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL FROM THE GULF. THE CHANGE OVER IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR RATHER QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM SPEEDS UP
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THERE ARE AREAS THAT WILL LAG IN WARMING UP AT
THE SURFACE DUE TO TERRAIN AFFECTS AND MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE
FREEZING RAIN. ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY
THE FRONT DIMINISHES RAPIDLY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF
AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF ALASKA QUICKLY BEHIND THE FIRST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST ELSEWHERE
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING
BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION. THE BRISTOL BAY TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND
THEIR PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS ALL RAIN. THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND
COINCIDES WITH THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA. THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA REGION WILL HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE OF
PRECIPITATION WITH PERIODS OF SNOW HEADING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A
SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM FROM THE WEST
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
THE TROUGH PASSAGE BY THE EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL START
OUT AS RAIN/SNOW AND TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING MORE RAIN/SNOW TO THE BRISTOL BAY AND LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS BY TUESDAY EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK NEAR SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT PUSHING INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AREA. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BEFORE SHIFTING TO
WESTERLY WINDS BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL HAVE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS NEAR PORT MOLLER INTO THE BRISTOL BAY
AREA THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURE
THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UPSTREAM BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING SEA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BE A STORM FORCE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS NEAR SHEMYA BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A
LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE WITH GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE
WESTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TO THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE EXTENDING THROUGH THE WESTERN
BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS. BY THURSDAY THE SAME WEATHER SCENARIO WILL
OCCUR FOR THE WESTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS WITH ANOTHER NORTH
PACIFIC LOW TRACKING ALONG THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND AN ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF. AN ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF
WAVES TRACK QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION IN ZONAL FLOW
BENEATH A STRONG POLAR JET CENTERED BETWEEN 50N AND 60N LATITUDE.
THE FIRST OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE A SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WHICH WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THAT SYSTEM WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY A SPRAWLING
LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTON SOUND REGION EARLY SATURDAY AND
SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND FOR THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE AS TEMPERATURES HOVER
NEAR FREEZING...WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKELY FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. AFTER THAT...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A
MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE MAINLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN A
RETURN TO MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE
MAINLAND.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 152.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 119 120 130 131 138 139 177 178.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...CB





000
FXAK68 PAFC 030226 CCA
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
313 PM AKST MON MAR 2 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE CURRENT PATTERN HAS A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE. THERE IS A TROUGH
CENTERED ALONG ABOUT 170 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED LOWS. THE STRONGEST OF THESE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
KODIAK AND HAS A FRONT THAT STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND
ANOTHER NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THERE IS A NEGATIVELY
TILTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALASKA THAT STRETCHES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN CANADIAN COAST. THERE IS
ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING SEA
WITH A DEEP LOW TO THE WEST NEAR KAMCHATKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AND ARE NOT PROVIDING ANY FORECAST PROBLEMS. THIS IS OFFSET BY THE
DIFFICULTY OF FORECASTING VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES (RAIN SNOW
AND FREEZING RAIN). THEREFORE THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NEAR
NORMAL TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING
AND MOVES THE FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THE DRIER AIR MASS
CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL SLOWLY SATURATES AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAKES NORTHWARD PROGRESS. THE EASTERN KENAI AND NORTHERN
GULF LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TONIGHT
AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS CAUSE DOWNSLOPING ALONG
WEST FACING SLOPES. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PICKS UP
MOMENTUM AROUND MIDNIGHT MOVING ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA AND
THEN THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL BY MID TUESDAY MORNING. THE
CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND NORTH THROUGH THE MATANUSKA AND
SUSITNA VALLEYS. FOR THESE AREAS...PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT
STARTS OFF AS SNOW AND THEN CHANGES OVER TO RAIN WITH A WARMER AIR
MASS ADVECTING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL FROM THE GULF. THE CHANGE OVER IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR RATHER QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM SPEEDS UP
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THERE ARE AREAS THAT WILL LAG IN WARMING UP AT
THE SURFACE DUE TO TERRAIN AFFECTS AND MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE
FREEZING RAIN. ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY
THE FRONT DIMINISHES RAPIDLY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF
AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF ALASKA QUICKLY BEHIND THE FIRST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST ELSEWHERE
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING
BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION. THE BRISTOL BAY TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND
THEIR PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS ALL RAIN. THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND
COINCIDES WITH THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA. THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA REGION WILL HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE OF
PRECIPITATION WITH PERIODS OF SNOW HEADING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A
SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM FROM THE WEST
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
THE TROUGH PASSAGE BY THE EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL START
OUT AS RAIN/SNOW AND TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING MORE RAIN/SNOW TO THE BRISTOL BAY AND LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS BY TUESDAY EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK NEAR SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT PUSHING INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AREA. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BEFORE SHIFTING TO
WESTERLY WINDS BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL HAVE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS NEAR PORT MOLLER INTO THE BRISTOL BAY
AREA THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURE
THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UPSTREAM BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING SEA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BE A STORM FORCE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS NEAR SHEMYA BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A
LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE WITH GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE
WESTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TO THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE EXTENDING THROUGH THE WESTERN
BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS. BY THURSDAY THE SAME WEATHER SCENARIO WILL
OCCUR FOR THE WESTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS WITH ANOTHER NORTH
PACIFIC LOW TRACKING ALONG THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND AN ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF. AN ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF
WAVES TRACK QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION IN ZONAL FLOW
BENEATH A STRONG POLAR JET CENTERED BETWEEN 50N AND 60N LATITUDE.
THE FIRST OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE A SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WHICH WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THAT SYSTEM WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY A SPRAWLING
LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTON SOUND REGION EARLY SATURDAY AND
SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND FOR THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE AS TEMPERATURES HOVER
NEAR FREEZING...WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKELY FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. AFTER THAT...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A
MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE MAINLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN A
RETURN TO MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE
MAINLAND.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 152.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 119 120 130 131 138 139 177 178.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...CB




000
FXAK68 PAFC 030013
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
313 PM AKST MON MAR 2 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE CURRENT PATTERN HAS A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE. THERE IS A TROUGH
CENTERED ALONG ABOUT 170 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED LOWS. THE STRONGEST OF THESE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
KODIAK AND HAS A FRONT THAT STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND
ANOTHER NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THERE IS A NEGATIVELY
TILTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALASKA THAT STRETCHES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN CANADIAN COAST. THERE IS
ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING SEA
WITH A DEEP LOW TO THE WEST NEAR KAMCHATKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AND ARE NOT PROVIDING ANY FORECAST PROBLEMS. THIS IS OFFSET BY THE
DIFFICULTY OF FORECASTING VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES (RAIN SNOW
AND FREEZING RAIN). THEREFORE THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NEAR
NORMAL TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING
AND MOVES THE FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THE DRIER AIR MASS
CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL SLOWLY SATURATES AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAKES NORTHWARD PROGRESS. THE EASTERN KENAI AND NORTHERN
GULF LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TONIGHT
AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS CAUSE DOWNSLOPING ALONG
WEST FACING SLOPES. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PICKS UP
MOMENTUM AROUND MIDNIGHT MOVING ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA AND
THEN THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL BY MID TUESDAY MORNING. THE
CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND NORTH THROUGH THE MATANUSKA AND
SUSITNA VALLEYS. FOR THESE AREAS...PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT
STARTS OFF AS SNOW AND THEN CHANGES OVER TO RAIN WITH A WARMER AIR
MASS ADVECTING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL FROM THE GULF. THE CHANGE OVER IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR RATHER QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM SPEEDS UP
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THERE ARE AREAS THAT WILL LAG IN WARMING UP AT
THE SURFACE DUE TO TERRAIN AFFECTS AND MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE
FREEZING RAIN. ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY
THE FRONT DIMINISHES RAPIDLY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF
AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF ALASKA QUICKLY BEHIND THE FIRST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST ELSEWHERE
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING
BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION. THE BRISTOL BAY TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND
THEIR PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS ALL RAIN. THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND
COINCIDES WITH THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA. THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA REGION WILL HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE OF
PRECIPITATION WITH PERIODS OF SNOW HEADING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A
SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM FROM THE WEST
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
THE TROUGH PASSAGE BY THE EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL START
OUT AS RAIN/SNOW AND TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING MORE RAIN/SNOW TO THE BRISTOL BAY AND LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS BY TUESDAY EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK NEAR SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT PUSHING INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AREA. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BEFORE SHIFTING TO
WESTERLY WINDS BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL HAVE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS NEAR PORT MOLLER INTO THE BRISTOL BAY
AREA THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURE
THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UPSTREAM BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING SEA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL SCATTERED SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BE A STORM FORCE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS NEAR SHEMYA BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE WITH GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO THE WESTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE EXTENDING THROUGH
THE WESTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS. BY THURSDAY THE SAME WEATHER
SCENARIO WILL OCCUR FOR THE WESTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS WITH
ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKING ALONG THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
AND AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS.


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF. AN ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF
WAVES TRACK QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION IN ZONAL FLOW
BENEATH A STRONG POLAR JET CENTERED BETWEEN 50N AND 60N LATITUDE.
THE FIRST OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE A SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WHICH WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THAT SYSTEM WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY A SPRAWLING
LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTON SOUND REGION EARLY SATURDAY AND
SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND FOR THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE AS TEMPERATURES HOVER
NEAR FREEZING...WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKELY FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. AFTER THAT...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A
MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE MAINLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN A
RETURN TO MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE
MAINLAND.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 152.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 119 120 130 131 138 139 177 178.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...CB





000
FXAK68 PAFC 030013
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
313 PM AKST MON MAR 2 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE CURRENT PATTERN HAS A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE. THERE IS A TROUGH
CENTERED ALONG ABOUT 170 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED LOWS. THE STRONGEST OF THESE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
KODIAK AND HAS A FRONT THAT STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND
ANOTHER NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THERE IS A NEGATIVELY
TILTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALASKA THAT STRETCHES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN CANADIAN COAST. THERE IS
ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING SEA
WITH A DEEP LOW TO THE WEST NEAR KAMCHATKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AND ARE NOT PROVIDING ANY FORECAST PROBLEMS. THIS IS OFFSET BY THE
DIFFICULTY OF FORECASTING VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES (RAIN SNOW
AND FREEZING RAIN). THEREFORE THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NEAR
NORMAL TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING
AND MOVES THE FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THE DRIER AIR MASS
CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL SLOWLY SATURATES AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAKES NORTHWARD PROGRESS. THE EASTERN KENAI AND NORTHERN
GULF LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TONIGHT
AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS CAUSE DOWNSLOPING ALONG
WEST FACING SLOPES. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PICKS UP
MOMENTUM AROUND MIDNIGHT MOVING ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA AND
THEN THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL BY MID TUESDAY MORNING. THE
CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND NORTH THROUGH THE MATANUSKA AND
SUSITNA VALLEYS. FOR THESE AREAS...PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT
STARTS OFF AS SNOW AND THEN CHANGES OVER TO RAIN WITH A WARMER AIR
MASS ADVECTING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL FROM THE GULF. THE CHANGE OVER IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR RATHER QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM SPEEDS UP
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THERE ARE AREAS THAT WILL LAG IN WARMING UP AT
THE SURFACE DUE TO TERRAIN AFFECTS AND MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE
FREEZING RAIN. ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY
THE FRONT DIMINISHES RAPIDLY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF
AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF ALASKA QUICKLY BEHIND THE FIRST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST ELSEWHERE
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING
BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION. THE BRISTOL BAY TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND
THEIR PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS ALL RAIN. THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND
COINCIDES WITH THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA. THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA REGION WILL HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE OF
PRECIPITATION WITH PERIODS OF SNOW HEADING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A
SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM FROM THE WEST
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
THE TROUGH PASSAGE BY THE EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL START
OUT AS RAIN/SNOW AND TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING MORE RAIN/SNOW TO THE BRISTOL BAY AND LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS BY TUESDAY EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK NEAR SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT PUSHING INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AREA. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BEFORE SHIFTING TO
WESTERLY WINDS BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL HAVE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS NEAR PORT MOLLER INTO THE BRISTOL BAY
AREA THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURE
THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UPSTREAM BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING SEA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL SCATTERED SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BE A STORM FORCE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS NEAR SHEMYA BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE WITH GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO THE WESTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE EXTENDING THROUGH
THE WESTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS. BY THURSDAY THE SAME WEATHER
SCENARIO WILL OCCUR FOR THE WESTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS WITH
ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKING ALONG THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
AND AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS.


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF. AN ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF
WAVES TRACK QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION IN ZONAL FLOW
BENEATH A STRONG POLAR JET CENTERED BETWEEN 50N AND 60N LATITUDE.
THE FIRST OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE A SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WHICH WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THAT SYSTEM WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY A SPRAWLING
LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTON SOUND REGION EARLY SATURDAY AND
SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND FOR THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE AS TEMPERATURES HOVER
NEAR FREEZING...WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKELY FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. AFTER THAT...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A
MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE MAINLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN A
RETURN TO MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE
MAINLAND.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 152.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 119 120 130 131 138 139 177 178.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...CB




000
FXAK68 PAFC 030013
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
313 PM AKST MON MAR 2 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE CURRENT PATTERN HAS A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE. THERE IS A TROUGH
CENTERED ALONG ABOUT 170 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED LOWS. THE STRONGEST OF THESE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
KODIAK AND HAS A FRONT THAT STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND
ANOTHER NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THERE IS A NEGATIVELY
TILTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALASKA THAT STRETCHES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN CANADIAN COAST. THERE IS
ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING SEA
WITH A DEEP LOW TO THE WEST NEAR KAMCHATKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AND ARE NOT PROVIDING ANY FORECAST PROBLEMS. THIS IS OFFSET BY THE
DIFFICULTY OF FORECASTING VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES (RAIN SNOW
AND FREEZING RAIN). THEREFORE THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NEAR
NORMAL TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING
AND MOVES THE FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THE DRIER AIR MASS
CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL SLOWLY SATURATES AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAKES NORTHWARD PROGRESS. THE EASTERN KENAI AND NORTHERN
GULF LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TONIGHT
AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS CAUSE DOWNSLOPING ALONG
WEST FACING SLOPES. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PICKS UP
MOMENTUM AROUND MIDNIGHT MOVING ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA AND
THEN THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL BY MID TUESDAY MORNING. THE
CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND NORTH THROUGH THE MATANUSKA AND
SUSITNA VALLEYS. FOR THESE AREAS...PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT
STARTS OFF AS SNOW AND THEN CHANGES OVER TO RAIN WITH A WARMER AIR
MASS ADVECTING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL FROM THE GULF. THE CHANGE OVER IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR RATHER QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM SPEEDS UP
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THERE ARE AREAS THAT WILL LAG IN WARMING UP AT
THE SURFACE DUE TO TERRAIN AFFECTS AND MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE
FREEZING RAIN. ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY
THE FRONT DIMINISHES RAPIDLY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF
AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF ALASKA QUICKLY BEHIND THE FIRST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST ELSEWHERE
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING
BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION. THE BRISTOL BAY TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND
THEIR PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS ALL RAIN. THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND
COINCIDES WITH THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA. THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA REGION WILL HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE OF
PRECIPITATION WITH PERIODS OF SNOW HEADING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A
SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM FROM THE WEST
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
THE TROUGH PASSAGE BY THE EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL START
OUT AS RAIN/SNOW AND TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING MORE RAIN/SNOW TO THE BRISTOL BAY AND LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS BY TUESDAY EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK NEAR SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT PUSHING INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AREA. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BEFORE SHIFTING TO
WESTERLY WINDS BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL HAVE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS NEAR PORT MOLLER INTO THE BRISTOL BAY
AREA THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURE
THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UPSTREAM BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING SEA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL SCATTERED SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BE A STORM FORCE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS NEAR SHEMYA BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE WITH GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO THE WESTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE EXTENDING THROUGH
THE WESTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS. BY THURSDAY THE SAME WEATHER
SCENARIO WILL OCCUR FOR THE WESTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS WITH
ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKING ALONG THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
AND AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS.


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF. AN ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF
WAVES TRACK QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION IN ZONAL FLOW
BENEATH A STRONG POLAR JET CENTERED BETWEEN 50N AND 60N LATITUDE.
THE FIRST OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE A SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WHICH WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THAT SYSTEM WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY A SPRAWLING
LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTON SOUND REGION EARLY SATURDAY AND
SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND FOR THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE AS TEMPERATURES HOVER
NEAR FREEZING...WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKELY FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. AFTER THAT...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A
MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE MAINLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN A
RETURN TO MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE
MAINLAND.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 152.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 119 120 130 131 138 139 177 178.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...CB





000
FXAK68 PAFC 030013
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
313 PM AKST MON MAR 2 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE CURRENT PATTERN HAS A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE. THERE IS A TROUGH
CENTERED ALONG ABOUT 170 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED LOWS. THE STRONGEST OF THESE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
KODIAK AND HAS A FRONT THAT STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND
ANOTHER NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THERE IS A NEGATIVELY
TILTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALASKA THAT STRETCHES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN CANADIAN COAST. THERE IS
ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING SEA
WITH A DEEP LOW TO THE WEST NEAR KAMCHATKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AND ARE NOT PROVIDING ANY FORECAST PROBLEMS. THIS IS OFFSET BY THE
DIFFICULTY OF FORECASTING VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES (RAIN SNOW
AND FREEZING RAIN). THEREFORE THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NEAR
NORMAL TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING
AND MOVES THE FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THE DRIER AIR MASS
CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL SLOWLY SATURATES AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAKES NORTHWARD PROGRESS. THE EASTERN KENAI AND NORTHERN
GULF LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TONIGHT
AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS CAUSE DOWNSLOPING ALONG
WEST FACING SLOPES. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PICKS UP
MOMENTUM AROUND MIDNIGHT MOVING ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA AND
THEN THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL BY MID TUESDAY MORNING. THE
CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND NORTH THROUGH THE MATANUSKA AND
SUSITNA VALLEYS. FOR THESE AREAS...PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT
STARTS OFF AS SNOW AND THEN CHANGES OVER TO RAIN WITH A WARMER AIR
MASS ADVECTING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL FROM THE GULF. THE CHANGE OVER IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR RATHER QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM SPEEDS UP
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THERE ARE AREAS THAT WILL LAG IN WARMING UP AT
THE SURFACE DUE TO TERRAIN AFFECTS AND MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE
FREEZING RAIN. ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY
THE FRONT DIMINISHES RAPIDLY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF
AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF ALASKA QUICKLY BEHIND THE FIRST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST ELSEWHERE
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING
BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION. THE BRISTOL BAY TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND
THEIR PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS ALL RAIN. THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND
COINCIDES WITH THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA. THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA REGION WILL HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE OF
PRECIPITATION WITH PERIODS OF SNOW HEADING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A
SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM FROM THE WEST
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
THE TROUGH PASSAGE BY THE EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL START
OUT AS RAIN/SNOW AND TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING MORE RAIN/SNOW TO THE BRISTOL BAY AND LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS BY TUESDAY EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK NEAR SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT PUSHING INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AREA. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BEFORE SHIFTING TO
WESTERLY WINDS BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL HAVE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS NEAR PORT MOLLER INTO THE BRISTOL BAY
AREA THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURE
THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UPSTREAM BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING SEA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL SCATTERED SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BE A STORM FORCE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS NEAR SHEMYA BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE WITH GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO THE WESTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE EXTENDING THROUGH
THE WESTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS. BY THURSDAY THE SAME WEATHER
SCENARIO WILL OCCUR FOR THE WESTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS WITH
ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKING ALONG THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
AND AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS.


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF. AN ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF
WAVES TRACK QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION IN ZONAL FLOW
BENEATH A STRONG POLAR JET CENTERED BETWEEN 50N AND 60N LATITUDE.
THE FIRST OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE A SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WHICH WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THAT SYSTEM WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY A SPRAWLING
LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTON SOUND REGION EARLY SATURDAY AND
SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND FOR THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE AS TEMPERATURES HOVER
NEAR FREEZING...WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKELY FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. AFTER THAT...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A
MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE MAINLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN A
RETURN TO MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE
MAINLAND.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 152.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 119 120 130 131 138 139 177 178.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...CB




000
FXAK68 PAFC 021431
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
531 AM AKST MON MAR 2 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE WEST COAST OF THE NORTH AMERICAN UPPER RIDGE IS ESTABLISHED
OVER ALASKA AND THE GULF THIS MORNING...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE BERING. THE RECENT MERGER OF TWO SYSTEMS HAS RESULTED IN A
TROUGH ACROSS THE BERING FROM EASTERN RUSSIA...ENDING IN A DOUBLE
UPPER LOW WITH THE NORTHERNMOST COMPONENT OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
ALCAN WITH ENOUGH CIRRUS TO DIMINISH THE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY OF
FOG ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL...WHILE A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING. A DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT IS DRAPED
ACROSS THE AKPEN AND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST AK COAST...ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME WIND..RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
MAKE ITS WAY INLAND OVER WESTERN AK TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
GULF TODAY AND REACH THE NORTH GULF COAST TONIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INLAND. INITIALLY THIS SYSTEM MAINTAINS A
MOIST TROPICAL CONNECTION...BUT THAT RAPIDLY DISCONNECTS AS THE
FRONT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT INTO TUE. WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING THE
BERING TROUGH MERGES WITH THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT...CROSSING INTO
THE MAINLAND TONIGHT AND WEAKENING INTO WED.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A KAMCHATKA LOW. THE
FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS EARLY TUE AND
REACHES AS FAR AS THE CENTRAL BERING BY WED. THE LOW APPROACHES
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE SAME TIME.

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST UTILIZES THE NAM AND GEM FOR FINE DETAIL IN
THE EAST AND THE EC/GFS OUT WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE COMBINED WITH OVERRUNNING IS PRODUCING
LIGHT RAIN OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND THE WESTERN GULF. THE MAIN
WEATHER PRODUCER HOWEVER IS A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
AND SURFACE FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THIS. KODIAK ISLAND AND THE
GULF COAST WILL SEE THE BULK OF PRECIP AS THESE FEATURES MOVE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS WILL LIMIT PRECIP IN
THE USUAL LEE SIDE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH A WEAKER
TRAILING WAVE EXPECTED RIGHT BEHIND THE PRIMARY ONE. THUS...EXPECT
AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIP FROM THE WESTERN KENAI UP TO ANCHORAGE
AND THE MAT VALLEY.

THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION-TYPE. COOLER
AIR OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL RAPIDLY CATCH UP WITH THE
WARMER AIR CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE GULF...HELPING TO MODIFY THE
AIR MASS BEFORE IT REACHES SOUTHCENTRAL. THE END RESULT IS THAT
THE AIR MASS WHICH REACHES SOUTHCENTRAL COINCIDENT WITH THE MAIN
UPPER WAVE WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY WARMER. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL LIKELY BE FROM DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS...
PRODUCING MORE LOCALIZED WARM POOLS IN THE LEE OF THE KENAI AND
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM THE WESTERN KENAI TO
ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT VALLEY WILL HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT...SO IF ANY PRECIP DOES FALL THERE IS A CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN. EXPECT PRECIP DURING THIS TIME WOULD BE SPOTTY...SO
THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY SIGNIFICANT ICING PROBLEMS. AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS COME AROUND TO SOUTH ON TUESDAY TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF
THIS AREA SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND PRODUCE PLAIN RAIN. THE
BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH ALL OF THIS IS OVER THE
NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW AND WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIP
AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

ONLY MINOR IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVE TOWARD SOUTHWEST ALASKA. RAIN WILL FALL OVER
THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE. RAIN...SNOW...AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
WILL FALL OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TODAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO RAIN
BY TONIGHT AND THEN BACK TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY BEFORE
ENDING LATE TUESDAY. A WINTRY MIX WILL ALSO FALL OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY MAINLY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH FREEZING RAIN MOST LIKELY THIS EVENING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN SHELTERED VALLEYS BETWEEN THE KUSKOKWIM
AND ALASKA MOUNTAIN RANGES. EVEN THE WINTRY MIX WILL CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN
AND SNOW WILL SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 1 INCH AND MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE BERING SEA TODAY AND
TONIGHT PUSHING A WEST-EAST FRONT NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE
MAINLAND. TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT..."WARM" TEMPERATURES SUPPORT ALL RAIN. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH AND EAST INTO TUESDAY...COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE PRIBILOFS AND
RAIN TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE NEXT WEATHER FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EAST INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND
BERING BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN AS SNOW AT SHEMYA BUT VERY QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
WITH SOUTHERLY NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS PUSHING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD.
ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT REACHES THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...WED THROUGH SUN)...

THIS TIME-FRAME WILL FEATURE A BIT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER THAN WE
HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE TWO SYSTEMS THE KICK
OFF THE WEEK...THE DECAYING FRONT OVER THE WEST AND THE WARM
OCCLUSION THAT COMES ASHORE THROUGH GULF INTO SOUTH CENTRAL...WILL
BE TAPERING OFF. THE OCCLUSION WILL MAKE FOR SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT OUT WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
ALASKA AND ALEUTIANS RANGES BY LATE WED. MODELS HAVE CHANGED THEIR
TUNE A BIT FROM LAST NIGHT NOW SHOWING MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FEATURE REMAINING NORTH OF THE AK
RANGE. SO WHILE CLOUDS WILL BE VERY PREVALENT ACROSS THE COOK
INLET AND MAT-SU VALLEY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GULF OF AK ON THU WITH A LITTLE
ADDED SUPPORT FROM A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE GULF COAST AND INTO THE
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.

AS WE LOOK TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND...THE TRANSIENT WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES. THE DIFFERENCE IN THIS PERIOD IS THAT A 150 KT POLAR
JET POINTED FROM SHEMYA TOWARD THE WEST COAST WILL CARRY A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER TOWARD THE STATE. WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG...IT WILL BE QUITE VAST IN ITS EXTENT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
COVER MOST OF THE BERING SEA WITH PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY BEFORE
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE SEWARD PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. IT WILL
PUSH A BROAD SWATH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL OF AK
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. IT DOES PULL UP SOME WARMER AIR WITH
THE PRECIPITATION...BRINGING 850MB TEMPERATURES TO NEAR -5 TO -6C
AROUND THE COOK INLET. THIS COULD LEAD TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IT IS SUCH A LARGE SYSTEM...IT DOES
PULL DOWN SOME IMPRESSIVELY COLD AIR FROM THE ARCTIC ON SUNDAY-
MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN ALMOST SCARY-GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS LOW
ALREADY. THUS...HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 152 155
MARINE...GALE 119 120 130 137 138 139 177 178
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...MSO




000
FXAK68 PAFC 021431
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
531 AM AKST MON MAR 2 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE WEST COAST OF THE NORTH AMERICAN UPPER RIDGE IS ESTABLISHED
OVER ALASKA AND THE GULF THIS MORNING...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE BERING. THE RECENT MERGER OF TWO SYSTEMS HAS RESULTED IN A
TROUGH ACROSS THE BERING FROM EASTERN RUSSIA...ENDING IN A DOUBLE
UPPER LOW WITH THE NORTHERNMOST COMPONENT OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
ALCAN WITH ENOUGH CIRRUS TO DIMINISH THE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY OF
FOG ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL...WHILE A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING. A DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT IS DRAPED
ACROSS THE AKPEN AND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST AK COAST...ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME WIND..RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
MAKE ITS WAY INLAND OVER WESTERN AK TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
GULF TODAY AND REACH THE NORTH GULF COAST TONIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INLAND. INITIALLY THIS SYSTEM MAINTAINS A
MOIST TROPICAL CONNECTION...BUT THAT RAPIDLY DISCONNECTS AS THE
FRONT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT INTO TUE. WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING THE
BERING TROUGH MERGES WITH THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT...CROSSING INTO
THE MAINLAND TONIGHT AND WEAKENING INTO WED.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A KAMCHATKA LOW. THE
FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS EARLY TUE AND
REACHES AS FAR AS THE CENTRAL BERING BY WED. THE LOW APPROACHES
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE SAME TIME.

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST UTILIZES THE NAM AND GEM FOR FINE DETAIL IN
THE EAST AND THE EC/GFS OUT WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE COMBINED WITH OVERRUNNING IS PRODUCING
LIGHT RAIN OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND THE WESTERN GULF. THE MAIN
WEATHER PRODUCER HOWEVER IS A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
AND SURFACE FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THIS. KODIAK ISLAND AND THE
GULF COAST WILL SEE THE BULK OF PRECIP AS THESE FEATURES MOVE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS WILL LIMIT PRECIP IN
THE USUAL LEE SIDE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH A WEAKER
TRAILING WAVE EXPECTED RIGHT BEHIND THE PRIMARY ONE. THUS...EXPECT
AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIP FROM THE WESTERN KENAI UP TO ANCHORAGE
AND THE MAT VALLEY.

THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION-TYPE. COOLER
AIR OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL RAPIDLY CATCH UP WITH THE
WARMER AIR CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE GULF...HELPING TO MODIFY THE
AIR MASS BEFORE IT REACHES SOUTHCENTRAL. THE END RESULT IS THAT
THE AIR MASS WHICH REACHES SOUTHCENTRAL COINCIDENT WITH THE MAIN
UPPER WAVE WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY WARMER. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL LIKELY BE FROM DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS...
PRODUCING MORE LOCALIZED WARM POOLS IN THE LEE OF THE KENAI AND
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM THE WESTERN KENAI TO
ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT VALLEY WILL HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT...SO IF ANY PRECIP DOES FALL THERE IS A CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN. EXPECT PRECIP DURING THIS TIME WOULD BE SPOTTY...SO
THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY SIGNIFICANT ICING PROBLEMS. AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS COME AROUND TO SOUTH ON TUESDAY TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF
THIS AREA SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND PRODUCE PLAIN RAIN. THE
BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH ALL OF THIS IS OVER THE
NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW AND WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIP
AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

ONLY MINOR IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVE TOWARD SOUTHWEST ALASKA. RAIN WILL FALL OVER
THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE. RAIN...SNOW...AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
WILL FALL OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TODAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO RAIN
BY TONIGHT AND THEN BACK TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY BEFORE
ENDING LATE TUESDAY. A WINTRY MIX WILL ALSO FALL OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY MAINLY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH FREEZING RAIN MOST LIKELY THIS EVENING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN SHELTERED VALLEYS BETWEEN THE KUSKOKWIM
AND ALASKA MOUNTAIN RANGES. EVEN THE WINTRY MIX WILL CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN
AND SNOW WILL SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 1 INCH AND MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE BERING SEA TODAY AND
TONIGHT PUSHING A WEST-EAST FRONT NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE
MAINLAND. TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT..."WARM" TEMPERATURES SUPPORT ALL RAIN. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH AND EAST INTO TUESDAY...COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE PRIBILOFS AND
RAIN TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE NEXT WEATHER FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EAST INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND
BERING BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN AS SNOW AT SHEMYA BUT VERY QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
WITH SOUTHERLY NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS PUSHING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD.
ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT REACHES THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...WED THROUGH SUN)...

THIS TIME-FRAME WILL FEATURE A BIT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER THAN WE
HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE TWO SYSTEMS THE KICK
OFF THE WEEK...THE DECAYING FRONT OVER THE WEST AND THE WARM
OCCLUSION THAT COMES ASHORE THROUGH GULF INTO SOUTH CENTRAL...WILL
BE TAPERING OFF. THE OCCLUSION WILL MAKE FOR SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT OUT WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
ALASKA AND ALEUTIANS RANGES BY LATE WED. MODELS HAVE CHANGED THEIR
TUNE A BIT FROM LAST NIGHT NOW SHOWING MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FEATURE REMAINING NORTH OF THE AK
RANGE. SO WHILE CLOUDS WILL BE VERY PREVALENT ACROSS THE COOK
INLET AND MAT-SU VALLEY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GULF OF AK ON THU WITH A LITTLE
ADDED SUPPORT FROM A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE GULF COAST AND INTO THE
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.

AS WE LOOK TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND...THE TRANSIENT WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES. THE DIFFERENCE IN THIS PERIOD IS THAT A 150 KT POLAR
JET POINTED FROM SHEMYA TOWARD THE WEST COAST WILL CARRY A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER TOWARD THE STATE. WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG...IT WILL BE QUITE VAST IN ITS EXTENT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
COVER MOST OF THE BERING SEA WITH PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY BEFORE
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE SEWARD PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. IT WILL
PUSH A BROAD SWATH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL OF AK
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. IT DOES PULL UP SOME WARMER AIR WITH
THE PRECIPITATION...BRINGING 850MB TEMPERATURES TO NEAR -5 TO -6C
AROUND THE COOK INLET. THIS COULD LEAD TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IT IS SUCH A LARGE SYSTEM...IT DOES
PULL DOWN SOME IMPRESSIVELY COLD AIR FROM THE ARCTIC ON SUNDAY-
MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN ALMOST SCARY-GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS LOW
ALREADY. THUS...HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 152 155
MARINE...GALE 119 120 130 137 138 139 177 178
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...MSO





000
FXAK68 PAFC 021431
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
531 AM AKST MON MAR 2 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE WEST COAST OF THE NORTH AMERICAN UPPER RIDGE IS ESTABLISHED
OVER ALASKA AND THE GULF THIS MORNING...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE BERING. THE RECENT MERGER OF TWO SYSTEMS HAS RESULTED IN A
TROUGH ACROSS THE BERING FROM EASTERN RUSSIA...ENDING IN A DOUBLE
UPPER LOW WITH THE NORTHERNMOST COMPONENT OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
ALCAN WITH ENOUGH CIRRUS TO DIMINISH THE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY OF
FOG ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL...WHILE A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING. A DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT IS DRAPED
ACROSS THE AKPEN AND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST AK COAST...ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME WIND..RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
MAKE ITS WAY INLAND OVER WESTERN AK TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
GULF TODAY AND REACH THE NORTH GULF COAST TONIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INLAND. INITIALLY THIS SYSTEM MAINTAINS A
MOIST TROPICAL CONNECTION...BUT THAT RAPIDLY DISCONNECTS AS THE
FRONT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT INTO TUE. WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING THE
BERING TROUGH MERGES WITH THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT...CROSSING INTO
THE MAINLAND TONIGHT AND WEAKENING INTO WED.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A KAMCHATKA LOW. THE
FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS EARLY TUE AND
REACHES AS FAR AS THE CENTRAL BERING BY WED. THE LOW APPROACHES
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE SAME TIME.

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST UTILIZES THE NAM AND GEM FOR FINE DETAIL IN
THE EAST AND THE EC/GFS OUT WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE COMBINED WITH OVERRUNNING IS PRODUCING
LIGHT RAIN OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND THE WESTERN GULF. THE MAIN
WEATHER PRODUCER HOWEVER IS A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
AND SURFACE FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THIS. KODIAK ISLAND AND THE
GULF COAST WILL SEE THE BULK OF PRECIP AS THESE FEATURES MOVE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS WILL LIMIT PRECIP IN
THE USUAL LEE SIDE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH A WEAKER
TRAILING WAVE EXPECTED RIGHT BEHIND THE PRIMARY ONE. THUS...EXPECT
AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIP FROM THE WESTERN KENAI UP TO ANCHORAGE
AND THE MAT VALLEY.

THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION-TYPE. COOLER
AIR OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL RAPIDLY CATCH UP WITH THE
WARMER AIR CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE GULF...HELPING TO MODIFY THE
AIR MASS BEFORE IT REACHES SOUTHCENTRAL. THE END RESULT IS THAT
THE AIR MASS WHICH REACHES SOUTHCENTRAL COINCIDENT WITH THE MAIN
UPPER WAVE WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY WARMER. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL LIKELY BE FROM DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS...
PRODUCING MORE LOCALIZED WARM POOLS IN THE LEE OF THE KENAI AND
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM THE WESTERN KENAI TO
ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT VALLEY WILL HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT...SO IF ANY PRECIP DOES FALL THERE IS A CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN. EXPECT PRECIP DURING THIS TIME WOULD BE SPOTTY...SO
THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY SIGNIFICANT ICING PROBLEMS. AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS COME AROUND TO SOUTH ON TUESDAY TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF
THIS AREA SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND PRODUCE PLAIN RAIN. THE
BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH ALL OF THIS IS OVER THE
NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW AND WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIP
AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

ONLY MINOR IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVE TOWARD SOUTHWEST ALASKA. RAIN WILL FALL OVER
THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE. RAIN...SNOW...AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
WILL FALL OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TODAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO RAIN
BY TONIGHT AND THEN BACK TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY BEFORE
ENDING LATE TUESDAY. A WINTRY MIX WILL ALSO FALL OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY MAINLY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH FREEZING RAIN MOST LIKELY THIS EVENING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN SHELTERED VALLEYS BETWEEN THE KUSKOKWIM
AND ALASKA MOUNTAIN RANGES. EVEN THE WINTRY MIX WILL CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN
AND SNOW WILL SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 1 INCH AND MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE BERING SEA TODAY AND
TONIGHT PUSHING A WEST-EAST FRONT NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE
MAINLAND. TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT..."WARM" TEMPERATURES SUPPORT ALL RAIN. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH AND EAST INTO TUESDAY...COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE PRIBILOFS AND
RAIN TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE NEXT WEATHER FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EAST INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND
BERING BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN AS SNOW AT SHEMYA BUT VERY QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
WITH SOUTHERLY NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS PUSHING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD.
ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT REACHES THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...WED THROUGH SUN)...

THIS TIME-FRAME WILL FEATURE A BIT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER THAN WE
HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE TWO SYSTEMS THE KICK
OFF THE WEEK...THE DECAYING FRONT OVER THE WEST AND THE WARM
OCCLUSION THAT COMES ASHORE THROUGH GULF INTO SOUTH CENTRAL...WILL
BE TAPERING OFF. THE OCCLUSION WILL MAKE FOR SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT OUT WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
ALASKA AND ALEUTIANS RANGES BY LATE WED. MODELS HAVE CHANGED THEIR
TUNE A BIT FROM LAST NIGHT NOW SHOWING MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FEATURE REMAINING NORTH OF THE AK
RANGE. SO WHILE CLOUDS WILL BE VERY PREVALENT ACROSS THE COOK
INLET AND MAT-SU VALLEY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GULF OF AK ON THU WITH A LITTLE
ADDED SUPPORT FROM A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE GULF COAST AND INTO THE
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.

AS WE LOOK TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND...THE TRANSIENT WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES. THE DIFFERENCE IN THIS PERIOD IS THAT A 150 KT POLAR
JET POINTED FROM SHEMYA TOWARD THE WEST COAST WILL CARRY A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER TOWARD THE STATE. WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG...IT WILL BE QUITE VAST IN ITS EXTENT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
COVER MOST OF THE BERING SEA WITH PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY BEFORE
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE SEWARD PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. IT WILL
PUSH A BROAD SWATH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL OF AK
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. IT DOES PULL UP SOME WARMER AIR WITH
THE PRECIPITATION...BRINGING 850MB TEMPERATURES TO NEAR -5 TO -6C
AROUND THE COOK INLET. THIS COULD LEAD TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IT IS SUCH A LARGE SYSTEM...IT DOES
PULL DOWN SOME IMPRESSIVELY COLD AIR FROM THE ARCTIC ON SUNDAY-
MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN ALMOST SCARY-GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS LOW
ALREADY. THUS...HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 152 155
MARINE...GALE 119 120 130 137 138 139 177 178
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...MSO




000
FXAK68 PAFC 021431
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
531 AM AKST MON MAR 2 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE WEST COAST OF THE NORTH AMERICAN UPPER RIDGE IS ESTABLISHED
OVER ALASKA AND THE GULF THIS MORNING...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE BERING. THE RECENT MERGER OF TWO SYSTEMS HAS RESULTED IN A
TROUGH ACROSS THE BERING FROM EASTERN RUSSIA...ENDING IN A DOUBLE
UPPER LOW WITH THE NORTHERNMOST COMPONENT OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
ALCAN WITH ENOUGH CIRRUS TO DIMINISH THE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY OF
FOG ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL...WHILE A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING. A DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT IS DRAPED
ACROSS THE AKPEN AND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST AK COAST...ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME WIND..RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
MAKE ITS WAY INLAND OVER WESTERN AK TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
GULF TODAY AND REACH THE NORTH GULF COAST TONIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INLAND. INITIALLY THIS SYSTEM MAINTAINS A
MOIST TROPICAL CONNECTION...BUT THAT RAPIDLY DISCONNECTS AS THE
FRONT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT INTO TUE. WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING THE
BERING TROUGH MERGES WITH THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT...CROSSING INTO
THE MAINLAND TONIGHT AND WEAKENING INTO WED.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A KAMCHATKA LOW. THE
FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS EARLY TUE AND
REACHES AS FAR AS THE CENTRAL BERING BY WED. THE LOW APPROACHES
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE SAME TIME.

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST UTILIZES THE NAM AND GEM FOR FINE DETAIL IN
THE EAST AND THE EC/GFS OUT WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE COMBINED WITH OVERRUNNING IS PRODUCING
LIGHT RAIN OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND THE WESTERN GULF. THE MAIN
WEATHER PRODUCER HOWEVER IS A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
AND SURFACE FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THIS. KODIAK ISLAND AND THE
GULF COAST WILL SEE THE BULK OF PRECIP AS THESE FEATURES MOVE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS WILL LIMIT PRECIP IN
THE USUAL LEE SIDE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH A WEAKER
TRAILING WAVE EXPECTED RIGHT BEHIND THE PRIMARY ONE. THUS...EXPECT
AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIP FROM THE WESTERN KENAI UP TO ANCHORAGE
AND THE MAT VALLEY.

THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION-TYPE. COOLER
AIR OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL RAPIDLY CATCH UP WITH THE
WARMER AIR CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE GULF...HELPING TO MODIFY THE
AIR MASS BEFORE IT REACHES SOUTHCENTRAL. THE END RESULT IS THAT
THE AIR MASS WHICH REACHES SOUTHCENTRAL COINCIDENT WITH THE MAIN
UPPER WAVE WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY WARMER. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL LIKELY BE FROM DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS...
PRODUCING MORE LOCALIZED WARM POOLS IN THE LEE OF THE KENAI AND
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM THE WESTERN KENAI TO
ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT VALLEY WILL HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT...SO IF ANY PRECIP DOES FALL THERE IS A CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN. EXPECT PRECIP DURING THIS TIME WOULD BE SPOTTY...SO
THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY SIGNIFICANT ICING PROBLEMS. AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS COME AROUND TO SOUTH ON TUESDAY TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF
THIS AREA SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND PRODUCE PLAIN RAIN. THE
BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH ALL OF THIS IS OVER THE
NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW AND WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIP
AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

ONLY MINOR IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVE TOWARD SOUTHWEST ALASKA. RAIN WILL FALL OVER
THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE. RAIN...SNOW...AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
WILL FALL OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TODAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO RAIN
BY TONIGHT AND THEN BACK TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY BEFORE
ENDING LATE TUESDAY. A WINTRY MIX WILL ALSO FALL OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY MAINLY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH FREEZING RAIN MOST LIKELY THIS EVENING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN SHELTERED VALLEYS BETWEEN THE KUSKOKWIM
AND ALASKA MOUNTAIN RANGES. EVEN THE WINTRY MIX WILL CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN
AND SNOW WILL SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 1 INCH AND MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE BERING SEA TODAY AND
TONIGHT PUSHING A WEST-EAST FRONT NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE
MAINLAND. TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT..."WARM" TEMPERATURES SUPPORT ALL RAIN. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH AND EAST INTO TUESDAY...COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE PRIBILOFS AND
RAIN TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE NEXT WEATHER FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EAST INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND
BERING BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN AS SNOW AT SHEMYA BUT VERY QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
WITH SOUTHERLY NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS PUSHING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD.
ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT REACHES THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...WED THROUGH SUN)...

THIS TIME-FRAME WILL FEATURE A BIT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER THAN WE
HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE TWO SYSTEMS THE KICK
OFF THE WEEK...THE DECAYING FRONT OVER THE WEST AND THE WARM
OCCLUSION THAT COMES ASHORE THROUGH GULF INTO SOUTH CENTRAL...WILL
BE TAPERING OFF. THE OCCLUSION WILL MAKE FOR SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT OUT WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
ALASKA AND ALEUTIANS RANGES BY LATE WED. MODELS HAVE CHANGED THEIR
TUNE A BIT FROM LAST NIGHT NOW SHOWING MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FEATURE REMAINING NORTH OF THE AK
RANGE. SO WHILE CLOUDS WILL BE VERY PREVALENT ACROSS THE COOK
INLET AND MAT-SU VALLEY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GULF OF AK ON THU WITH A LITTLE
ADDED SUPPORT FROM A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE GULF COAST AND INTO THE
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.

AS WE LOOK TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND...THE TRANSIENT WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES. THE DIFFERENCE IN THIS PERIOD IS THAT A 150 KT POLAR
JET POINTED FROM SHEMYA TOWARD THE WEST COAST WILL CARRY A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER TOWARD THE STATE. WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG...IT WILL BE QUITE VAST IN ITS EXTENT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
COVER MOST OF THE BERING SEA WITH PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY BEFORE
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE SEWARD PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. IT WILL
PUSH A BROAD SWATH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL OF AK
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. IT DOES PULL UP SOME WARMER AIR WITH
THE PRECIPITATION...BRINGING 850MB TEMPERATURES TO NEAR -5 TO -6C
AROUND THE COOK INLET. THIS COULD LEAD TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IT IS SUCH A LARGE SYSTEM...IT DOES
PULL DOWN SOME IMPRESSIVELY COLD AIR FROM THE ARCTIC ON SUNDAY-
MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN ALMOST SCARY-GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS LOW
ALREADY. THUS...HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 152 155
MARINE...GALE 119 120 130 137 138 139 177 178
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...MSO





000
FXAK68 PAFC 020110
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
410 PM AKST SUN MAR 1 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A LARGE AND SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST OF CANADA. THERE IS AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN BERING WITH A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BERING AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THERE IS ANOTHER LOW SOUTH
OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WITH A SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST FRONT
STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS IS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN...BUT SHOWS
SIGNS OF BEING TRANSIENT IN NATURE (I.E. IT SHOULD NOT LAST VERY
LONG).

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE OF COURSE SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...BUT OVER-ALL THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS A BIT HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
RIDGING THAT SITS OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL WILL ALLOW FOR FOG TO
REDEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL. THE FOG
WILL START TO GET CLEARED OUT FROM A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KODIAK AND WILL MAKE IT TO
THE KENAI PENINSULA TOMORROW...BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR
AND PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE IF
THERE IS ENOUGH WARM AIR TO AVOID THE RISK OF FREEZING RAIN INLAND.
IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL GO SAFELY OVER TO
REGULAR RAIN...BUT THAT LOCATIONS ALONG COOK INLET WILL REMAIN
COLDER LONGER SO THERE WILL STILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
RAIN WITH THE OVERRUNNING WARM AIR. THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL IS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE WESTERN KENAI TO
THE MAT VALLEY. FORTUNATELY ALL PRECIPITATION FOR THESE INLAND
AREAS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION WILL
REMAIN IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THE
NORTH PACIFIC LOW CONTINUES ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS AND BY MONDAY MORNING BE LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED IN
THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
RAIN TO THE COASTLINE OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA BEFORE SPREADING INLAND.
THIS IS NOW EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR BOTH
LOCATIONS. THE BRISTOL BAY REGION HAS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BRIEFLY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING. BY WEDNESDAY
ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT WILL BE IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THIS WILL
BRING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
A NORTH PACIFIC LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT IN THE EASTERN BERING
SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
ALASKA COASTLINE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SPREADING INTO THE REGION.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN BERING SEA
WILL HAVE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTH INTO THE BERING STRAIT BY TUESDAY
MORNING. A STORM FORCE NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES NEAR KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE JUST WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
BRINGING MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION. MEANWHILE...THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA WILL HAVE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW
NEAR 60N LATITUDE WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS TRACK EASTWARD
THROUGH THE BERING SEA INTO MAINLAND ALASKA. THE FIRST OF THESE
SYSTEMS WILL DEPART TO THE EAST BY MID WEEK BUT WILL QUICKLY BE
FOLLOWED BY A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE
MAINLAND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A DEEPER TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO
MOVE OVER THE MAINLAND DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER A WIDE SWATH OF THE
BERING AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINING A CHALLENGE ACROSS THE
MAINLAND AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR FREEZING. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 152 155
MARINE...GALE 130 131 138 139 177 178
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...CB




000
FXAK68 PAFC 020110
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
410 PM AKST SUN MAR 1 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A LARGE AND SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST OF CANADA. THERE IS AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN BERING WITH A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BERING AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THERE IS ANOTHER LOW SOUTH
OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WITH A SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST FRONT
STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS IS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN...BUT SHOWS
SIGNS OF BEING TRANSIENT IN NATURE (I.E. IT SHOULD NOT LAST VERY
LONG).

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE OF COURSE SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...BUT OVER-ALL THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS A BIT HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
RIDGING THAT SITS OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL WILL ALLOW FOR FOG TO
REDEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL. THE FOG
WILL START TO GET CLEARED OUT FROM A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KODIAK AND WILL MAKE IT TO
THE KENAI PENINSULA TOMORROW...BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR
AND PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE IF
THERE IS ENOUGH WARM AIR TO AVOID THE RISK OF FREEZING RAIN INLAND.
IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL GO SAFELY OVER TO
REGULAR RAIN...BUT THAT LOCATIONS ALONG COOK INLET WILL REMAIN
COLDER LONGER SO THERE WILL STILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
RAIN WITH THE OVERRUNNING WARM AIR. THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL IS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE WESTERN KENAI TO
THE MAT VALLEY. FORTUNATELY ALL PRECIPITATION FOR THESE INLAND
AREAS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION WILL
REMAIN IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THE
NORTH PACIFIC LOW CONTINUES ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS AND BY MONDAY MORNING BE LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED IN
THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
RAIN TO THE COASTLINE OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA BEFORE SPREADING INLAND.
THIS IS NOW EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR BOTH
LOCATIONS. THE BRISTOL BAY REGION HAS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BRIEFLY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING. BY WEDNESDAY
ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT WILL BE IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THIS WILL
BRING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
A NORTH PACIFIC LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT IN THE EASTERN BERING
SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
ALASKA COASTLINE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SPREADING INTO THE REGION.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN BERING SEA
WILL HAVE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTH INTO THE BERING STRAIT BY TUESDAY
MORNING. A STORM FORCE NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES NEAR KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE JUST WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
BRINGING MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION. MEANWHILE...THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA WILL HAVE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW
NEAR 60N LATITUDE WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS TRACK EASTWARD
THROUGH THE BERING SEA INTO MAINLAND ALASKA. THE FIRST OF THESE
SYSTEMS WILL DEPART TO THE EAST BY MID WEEK BUT WILL QUICKLY BE
FOLLOWED BY A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE
MAINLAND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A DEEPER TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO
MOVE OVER THE MAINLAND DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER A WIDE SWATH OF THE
BERING AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINING A CHALLENGE ACROSS THE
MAINLAND AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR FREEZING. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 152 155
MARINE...GALE 130 131 138 139 177 178
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...CB




000
FXAK68 PAFC 020110
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
410 PM AKST SUN MAR 1 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A LARGE AND SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST OF CANADA. THERE IS AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN BERING WITH A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BERING AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THERE IS ANOTHER LOW SOUTH
OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WITH A SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST FRONT
STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS IS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN...BUT SHOWS
SIGNS OF BEING TRANSIENT IN NATURE (I.E. IT SHOULD NOT LAST VERY
LONG).

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE OF COURSE SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...BUT OVER-ALL THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS A BIT HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
RIDGING THAT SITS OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL WILL ALLOW FOR FOG TO
REDEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL. THE FOG
WILL START TO GET CLEARED OUT FROM A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KODIAK AND WILL MAKE IT TO
THE KENAI PENINSULA TOMORROW...BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR
AND PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE IF
THERE IS ENOUGH WARM AIR TO AVOID THE RISK OF FREEZING RAIN INLAND.
IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL GO SAFELY OVER TO
REGULAR RAIN...BUT THAT LOCATIONS ALONG COOK INLET WILL REMAIN
COLDER LONGER SO THERE WILL STILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
RAIN WITH THE OVERRUNNING WARM AIR. THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL IS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE WESTERN KENAI TO
THE MAT VALLEY. FORTUNATELY ALL PRECIPITATION FOR THESE INLAND
AREAS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION WILL
REMAIN IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THE
NORTH PACIFIC LOW CONTINUES ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS AND BY MONDAY MORNING BE LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED IN
THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
RAIN TO THE COASTLINE OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA BEFORE SPREADING INLAND.
THIS IS NOW EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR BOTH
LOCATIONS. THE BRISTOL BAY REGION HAS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BRIEFLY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING. BY WEDNESDAY
ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT WILL BE IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THIS WILL
BRING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
A NORTH PACIFIC LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT IN THE EASTERN BERING
SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
ALASKA COASTLINE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SPREADING INTO THE REGION.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN BERING SEA
WILL HAVE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTH INTO THE BERING STRAIT BY TUESDAY
MORNING. A STORM FORCE NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES NEAR KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE JUST WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
BRINGING MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION. MEANWHILE...THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA WILL HAVE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW
NEAR 60N LATITUDE WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS TRACK EASTWARD
THROUGH THE BERING SEA INTO MAINLAND ALASKA. THE FIRST OF THESE
SYSTEMS WILL DEPART TO THE EAST BY MID WEEK BUT WILL QUICKLY BE
FOLLOWED BY A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE
MAINLAND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A DEEPER TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO
MOVE OVER THE MAINLAND DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER A WIDE SWATH OF THE
BERING AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINING A CHALLENGE ACROSS THE
MAINLAND AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR FREEZING. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 152 155
MARINE...GALE 130 131 138 139 177 178
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...CB





000
FXAK68 PAFC 020110
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
410 PM AKST SUN MAR 1 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A LARGE AND SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST OF CANADA. THERE IS AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN BERING WITH A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BERING AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THERE IS ANOTHER LOW SOUTH
OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WITH A SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST FRONT
STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS IS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN...BUT SHOWS
SIGNS OF BEING TRANSIENT IN NATURE (I.E. IT SHOULD NOT LAST VERY
LONG).

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE OF COURSE SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...BUT OVER-ALL THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS A BIT HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
RIDGING THAT SITS OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL WILL ALLOW FOR FOG TO
REDEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL. THE FOG
WILL START TO GET CLEARED OUT FROM A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KODIAK AND WILL MAKE IT TO
THE KENAI PENINSULA TOMORROW...BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR
AND PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE IF
THERE IS ENOUGH WARM AIR TO AVOID THE RISK OF FREEZING RAIN INLAND.
IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL GO SAFELY OVER TO
REGULAR RAIN...BUT THAT LOCATIONS ALONG COOK INLET WILL REMAIN
COLDER LONGER SO THERE WILL STILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
RAIN WITH THE OVERRUNNING WARM AIR. THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL IS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE WESTERN KENAI TO
THE MAT VALLEY. FORTUNATELY ALL PRECIPITATION FOR THESE INLAND
AREAS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION WILL
REMAIN IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THE
NORTH PACIFIC LOW CONTINUES ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS AND BY MONDAY MORNING BE LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED IN
THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
RAIN TO THE COASTLINE OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA BEFORE SPREADING INLAND.
THIS IS NOW EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR BOTH
LOCATIONS. THE BRISTOL BAY REGION HAS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BRIEFLY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING. BY WEDNESDAY
ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT WILL BE IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THIS WILL
BRING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
A NORTH PACIFIC LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT IN THE EASTERN BERING
SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
ALASKA COASTLINE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SPREADING INTO THE REGION.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN BERING SEA
WILL HAVE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTH INTO THE BERING STRAIT BY TUESDAY
MORNING. A STORM FORCE NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES NEAR KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE JUST WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
BRINGING MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION. MEANWHILE...THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA WILL HAVE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW
NEAR 60N LATITUDE WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS TRACK EASTWARD
THROUGH THE BERING SEA INTO MAINLAND ALASKA. THE FIRST OF THESE
SYSTEMS WILL DEPART TO THE EAST BY MID WEEK BUT WILL QUICKLY BE
FOLLOWED BY A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE
MAINLAND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A DEEPER TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO
MOVE OVER THE MAINLAND DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER A WIDE SWATH OF THE
BERING AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINING A CHALLENGE ACROSS THE
MAINLAND AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR FREEZING. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 152 155
MARINE...GALE 130 131 138 139 177 178
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...CB





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