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000
FXAK68 PAFC 100155
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
455 PM AKST TUE FEB 9 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
IR/WV SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING UP FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND WITH ANOTHER BROADER CLOSED
SYSTEM SPINNING IN PLACE JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE
SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD KODIAK IS A STACKED SYSTEM WITH A DEEP LAYER
OF MOISTURE AROUND THE CENTER OF THE LOW. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF AND KENAI PENINSULA AS WEAK DISTURBANCES
PROPAGATE NORTH TOWARD THE MAINLAND...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL INLAND UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TO THE WEST...A
DEFORMATION ZONE IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE CHAIN AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH. RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS SPREAD ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE GENERAL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY...HOWEVER SURFACE DETAILS WERE
BEST HANDLED BY THE ECMWF AND NAM AND WERE USED TO UPDATE THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR MIDWEEK IS THE STORM
SYSTEM TRACKING TOWARD KODIAK AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM PEAK TONIGHT AND THEN
SLOWLY DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW QUICKLY FOLLOWS
A SIMILAR PATH LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA IS CURRENTLY LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF WHERE
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO STORM FORCE TONIGHT. IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF ALONG KODIAK ISLAND AS WELL AS IN SHELIKOF
STRAIT...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO STORMS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL
LIFT NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT TO BE
STRETCHED OVER KODIAK ISLAND...THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE INITIAL IMPACT OF THIS FRONT WILL BE TO INCREASE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH TERRAIN GAPS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
SUBSTANTIALLY TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW DEVELOPING
THROUGH THOMPSON PASS BY LATE THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER
THOMPSON PASS AND THE VALDEZ AREA MID MORNING WEDNESDAY AND TO THE
MOUNTAINS OF THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE COAST PRECIPITATION WILL PRIMARILY BE
RAIN WHILE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS WILL BE HEAVILY
RAIN SHADOWED. ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADDITIONAL
SURFACE LOW ROTATING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL SWING FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE GULF AND GULF COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A THIRD WAVE ENTERING THE EASTERN GULF
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AS THE STORM FORCE LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS FROM
THE PACIFIC SIDE TONIGHT...THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW THROUGH SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ALASKA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE ALONG THE WESTERN CAPES AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA BEFORE
DIMINISHING AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL SPILL-OVER FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF ACROSS
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE STORM FORCE LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT. THE NEXT STORM FORCE LOW WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS BY LATE TONIGHT EXTENDING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN CHAIN
WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. THE REST OF
THE BERING SEA WILL REMAIN WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AS YOU GO FARTHER NORTH TOWARD THE BERING STRAIT. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE A WINTRY MIX FOR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN/BERING
SEA. WHILE THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL
BE UNDER A SHOWERY WEATHER REGIME WITH ALL PRECIPITATION FALLING
AS SNOW THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE BERING SEA AND NORTH PACIFIC. THE
AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE BERING SEA AND NORTH
PACIFIC WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND SWITCH FROM A NEGATIVE
TILT TO A POSITIVE TILT AS THE JET ENERGY TRANSITIONS FROM THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE TROUGH TO THE EXIT REGION. AS THIS
HAPPENS...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES WILL IMPACT THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.
SEVERAL FRONTS WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WHICH
WILL KEEP RAINFALL CHANCES PRETTY HIGH AS RAIN UPSLOPES ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH NOT A LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THESE FRONT
SHOULD FALL APART ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND LEAVE MUCH OF
INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL ON THE DRY SIDE. SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE
BERING SEA WILL BE ON THE SHOWERY SIDE WITH NO STRONG FEATURES
EXPECTED UNTIL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHEN MODELS START HINTING
AT A DECENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REPLACING THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE REASON FOR THE SHOWERY REGIME IS DUE IN
LARGE PART TO THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS SUCH THAT IT IS
PREVENTING ANY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TO BE
ABLE TO RE-CURVE INTO THE BERING SEA. TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 127 130 131 139 160 165 180.
  STORM STORM 132 138 150.
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 180 185.

&&
$$





000
FXAK68 PAFC 091434
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
534 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A POWERFUL NORTH PACIFIC JET STREAM REMAINS THE MAIN DRIVER OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA AS LOWS ORIGINATING FROM
IT CONTINUE TO MARCH ACROSS THE GULF BEFORE MOVING INLAND. ONE OF
THESE SUCH LOWS...NOW RAPIDLY WEAKENING...IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA OFF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST. A LARGE
TROUGH IS NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH ITS CENTER
SOUTH OF UNALASKA. THIS TROUGH IS ANCHORING THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTH PACIFIC JET AROUND 35N LATITUDE. WITH A STRONG WESTERN
AMERICA RIDGE IN PLACE...THIS IS KEEPING THE PERSISTENT PATTERN
FEATURING N PACIFIC LOWS MOVING NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
SOUTHERN ALASKA. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF 44N 143W... AND THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY THIS EVENING...AND THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION IS RATHER SPOTTY ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
LARGELY OWING TO A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND.
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ARE LARGELY RELEGATED TO THE UPWIND
PORTION OF THE ALASKA RANGE...CHUGACH...AND ALONG THE KENAI
PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR AND A DOWN INLET PRESSURE
GRADIENT ARE KEEPING INLAND SOUTHCENTRAL DRY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THEY ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE GENERAL DEPICTION OF A SERIES OF NORTH PACIFIC LOWS MOVING
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THEY DO BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WITH THE SECOND AND THIRD LOWS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...RESPECTIVELY. WITH THAT SAID...WHILE THE TRACKS AND
TIMING ARE DIFFERENT IN THE VARYING MODELS...THE OVERALL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS ARE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS MODERATELY HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AS THE PREVIOUS FRONT CONTINUES TO FADE...SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK RIDGING WILL
THEN BUILD IN UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. SIMILARLY TO THE LAST FRONT THIS ONE
WILL ALSO HAVE A WARM PUSH WITH IT BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
NORTH GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND. HOWEVER...WITH THE PARENT LOW
STAYING TO THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS DUE TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW AT MOUNTAIN TOP...THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL STAY ON THE GULF SIDE OF THE COASTAL RANGES. THE LOW MOVING
UP TOWARDS THE GULF TONIGHT WILL ALSO AID IN OUTFLOW WINDS AROUND
THE SOUTHCENTRAL THAT WILL LAST INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...TUE AND
WED)...
ONE LOW WILL EXIT TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
LEAVING THE AREA UNDER THE PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC HIGH AND
INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW. FIRST THOUGH...A FEW LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT LOW WILL CLIP THROUGH THE AHKLUN
MOUNTAINS AND THE COAST OF THE YK-DELTA. AFTER THIS...NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR JUST
ABOUT ALL AREAS THROUGH WED. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG THE
WESTERN CAPES AND THE COASTAL AREAS ON WED.

YET ANOTHER LOW WILL BRUSH UP AGAINST THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE
AKPEN LATE WED INTO THU. IT WILL SLING A FRONT INTO THE ALEUTIAN
RANGE...BUT THE ORIENTATION OF IT WILL KEEP JUST ABOUT ALL INLAND
AREAS FROM SEEING MUCH PRECIPITATION. IT WILL REINFORCE THE
NORTHEAST WINDS THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2...TUE AND
WED)...
THE AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. ONE
IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. IT
IS BRINGING GALE-FORCE EASTERLY WINDS AND SOME DECENT RAIN TO THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. COUNTER-CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE
LOW CONSUMES THE REST OF THE BERING SEA WITH NUMEROUS RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEXT LOW IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARD THE AKPEN.
IT WILL "STEAL" THE ENERGY FROM THE AFORE MENTIONED LOW AND
EFFECTIVELY "RE-ORIENT" THE COUNTER-CLOCKWISE FLOW. BY WED
AFTERNOON THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL BE SOUTH OF SAND POINT.
GALE-FORCE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN
BERING AND THE FAR EASTERN ALEUTIANS WITH COLDER AIR AND SNOW
SHOWERS DOMINATING FURTHER WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED
OVER THE BERING SEA AND NORTHERN PACIFIC SHOWS NO SIGNS OF
DISSIPATING. SEVERAL STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOWS AND SHORTWAVES WILL
DROP INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF RUSSIA
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP RE-INVIGORATE THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN SIMILAR TO THAT OBSERVED OVER
THE PAST MONTH. MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND IT APPEARS UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THE
PLACEMENT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH KEEPS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IN THE MAIN STORM TRACK. NORMALLY FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR...THIS COULD BE A FAVORABLE SET UP TO BRING
SNOWFALL TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH
WILL BRING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FOR THE SUBTROPICS UP TOWARD
ALASKA AND ADVECT WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE ALASKA MAINLAND
(MORE FAVORABLE FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS). TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH A LOT OF
LOCATIONS SEEING NEAR OR ABOVE FREEING TEMPERATURES WHILE SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 132 138 150 352
         GALE  119 120 127 130 131 155 160 165 170 171
               172 173 174 180 351
         FREEZING SPRAY 185

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...MC





000
FXAK68 PAFC 090113
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
413 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVELS...SINCE YESTERDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS
SOUTH OF KODIAK HAS BEEN ABSORBED INTO A NEW UPPER LOW. THE NEW
LOW AND CENTER OF CIRCULATION FOR THE NUMEROUS UPPER LEVEL WAVES
AND LOWS BOUND FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA IS NOW CENTERED SOUTH OF ADAK.
THE JET CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ZONAL SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW AS
IT LATERALLY TRANSLATES SOUTH. THE ZONAL JET IS PUSHING THE RIDGE
THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE THE PAST FEW DAYS OVER THE PANHANDLE
EASTWARD...WHICH WILL HELP TO DIMINISH THE INTENSITY OF FUTURE
DISTURBANCES ROTATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF TOWARDS THE COAST
DUE TO THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS... THE STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF
ADAK CONTINUES TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...WITH THE
FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OCCASIONALLY CAUSING GALE FORCE
WINDS ON THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE CHAIN. THE LOW THAT HAD BROUGHT
THE STRONG FRONT TO KODIAK AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS HAS NOW CROSSED THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO BRISTOL BAY.
A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WENT THROUGH
DILLINGHAM THIS MORNING AND HAVE MOVED WESTWARD INTO THE WOOD
RIVER MOUNTAINS. WINDS WITH THIS LOW ARE LIGHT. YET ANOTHER SURFACE
LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
DEPARTING JET STREAK. IT IS RACING NORTHWARD...THOUGH THE ONLY
REAL IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM IT ARE THE CONTINUATION OF COASTAL
SHOWERS NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. A FRONT IS APPROACHING SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA...WHICH FORMED FROM A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN BROAD SOUTHEAST FLOW. IT IS CAUSING SOME
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN KENAI AND WESTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPING IS LARGELY KEEPING ALL OF THE
ACTIVITY FROM REACHING ANCHORAGE AND THE WESTERN KENAI. THOUGH A
FEW OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SUCCESSFULLY
TRAVERSE THE MOUNTAINS...CAUSING BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE ON THE
ANCHORAGE 12Z SOUNDING HAS BEEN NOTED SINCE YESTERDAYS 00Z
SOUNDING...WHICH EXPLAINS WHY SOME OF THE SHOWERS ARE GETTING OVER
THE CHUGACH.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF...ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THE PAST 24 HOURS ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF. FOR THIS
FEATURE...THE NAM WAS THE PREFERRED MODEL AS ITS BETTER RESOLUTION
HANDLES THE LOCAL EFFECTS OF THE STORM BETTER THAN THE GLOBAL
MODELS. FOR THE LOW HEADED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE CHOSEN MODEL AS FOR THE PAST
FEW RUNS IT HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT. THE EC HAS BEEN THE
FASTEST/FURTHEST NORTH OF THE MODELS...BUT RUN TO RUN HAS BEEN
TRENDING SOUTH WITH THE LOW...TOWARDS THE GFS POSITION. THE GFS
SOLUTION HAS BEEN TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE
STORM AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST...FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF
THE LOW NOW IN BRISTOL BAY.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS...THE NAM WAS ALSO THE
MODEL OF CHOICE AS IT IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER
MODELS AND HAS BETTER DETAILS WITH THE SMALL SCALE GAP FLOWS
THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS. ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE
BROAD...COLD...NORTHEAST SHOWERY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON BOTH SIDES REMAINS HIGH CONCERNING THE
LARGER FEATURES ALREADY DISCUSSED. AS THERE REMAINS NO LARGE
SCALE CHANGES IN THE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE...IT STANDS WITH GOOD REASON THAT SMALLER SCALE FEATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANGEABLE WEATHER TO SOUTHERN ALASKA
BETWEEN ANY BIGGER LOWS. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
THESE FEATURES WILL BE AFFECTING LOCALIZED AREAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE TIMING OF WHEN EACH
INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCE AFFECTS THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

ONCE THE WEAK LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF TRACKS NORTH AND INLAND
OVER YAKUTAT THE LARGE BLOCKING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND PUSH BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST TUESDAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
END QUICKLY WITH SKIES CLEARING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. THE
NEXT INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDE SPREAD
GALES TO THAT AREA. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY PICK UP TO STORM FORCE IN
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND COASTAL WATERS NEAR KODIAK ISLAND
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN PUSH ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE BRISTOL BAY REGION
BEFORE MOVING INTO THE KUSKOKWIM BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS
SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL THEN DIMINISH INTO A WEAK TROUGH GOING INTO
TUESDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COASTLINE IT
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA...AND THEN
TO DILLINGHAM WESTWARD BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
COASTLINE. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL MAINLY BE A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW FOR INLAND AREAS EXCEPT FOR ALL SNOW IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WHILE ALONG THE BRISTOL BAY COASTLINE THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ALL RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE MAJORITY OF THE BERING IS DOMINATED BY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING. THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL BE AFFECTED BY A NORTH PACIFIC STORM-FORCE
LOW LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CHAIN. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD IT
WILL BRING GALE-FORCE EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CHAIN
BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE LOWER BERING SEA HEADING INTO TUESDAY.
BY TUESDAY EVENING THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS ALONG THE CHAIN AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC. LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN MOSTLY
ALL RAIN ALONG THE CHAIN. WHILE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE WEST
OF ADAK THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED
OVER THE BERING SEA AND NORTHERN PACIFIC SHOWS NO SIGNS OF
DISSIPATING. SEVERAL STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOWS AND SHORTWAVES WILL
DROP INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF RUSSIA
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP RE-INVIGORATE THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN SIMILAR TO THAT OBSERVED OVER
THE PAST MONTH. MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND IT APPEARS UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THE
PLACEMENT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH KEEPS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IN THE MAIN STORM TRACK. NORMALLY FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR...THIS COULD BE A FAVORABLE SET UP TO BRING
SNOWFALL TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH
WILL BRING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FOR THE SUBTROPICS UP TOWARD
ALASKA AND ADVECT WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE ALASKA MAINLAND
(MORE FAVORABLE FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS). TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH A LOT OF
LOCATIONS SEEING NEAR OR ABOVE FREEING TEMPERATURES WHILE SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 127 130 131 136 138 139 155 170-174 176.
 STORM 132 150.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.

&&
$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...MC




000
FXAK68 PAFC 090113
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
413 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVELS...SINCE YESTERDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS
SOUTH OF KODIAK HAS BEEN ABSORBED INTO A NEW UPPER LOW. THE NEW
LOW AND CENTER OF CIRCULATION FOR THE NUMEROUS UPPER LEVEL WAVES
AND LOWS BOUND FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA IS NOW CENTERED SOUTH OF ADAK.
THE JET CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ZONAL SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW AS
IT LATERALLY TRANSLATES SOUTH. THE ZONAL JET IS PUSHING THE RIDGE
THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE THE PAST FEW DAYS OVER THE PANHANDLE
EASTWARD...WHICH WILL HELP TO DIMINISH THE INTENSITY OF FUTURE
DISTURBANCES ROTATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF TOWARDS THE COAST
DUE TO THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS... THE STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF
ADAK CONTINUES TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...WITH THE
FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OCCASIONALLY CAUSING GALE FORCE
WINDS ON THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE CHAIN. THE LOW THAT HAD BROUGHT
THE STRONG FRONT TO KODIAK AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS HAS NOW CROSSED THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO BRISTOL BAY.
A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WENT THROUGH
DILLINGHAM THIS MORNING AND HAVE MOVED WESTWARD INTO THE WOOD
RIVER MOUNTAINS. WINDS WITH THIS LOW ARE LIGHT. YET ANOTHER SURFACE
LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
DEPARTING JET STREAK. IT IS RACING NORTHWARD...THOUGH THE ONLY
REAL IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM IT ARE THE CONTINUATION OF COASTAL
SHOWERS NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. A FRONT IS APPROACHING SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA...WHICH FORMED FROM A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN BROAD SOUTHEAST FLOW. IT IS CAUSING SOME
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN KENAI AND WESTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPING IS LARGELY KEEPING ALL OF THE
ACTIVITY FROM REACHING ANCHORAGE AND THE WESTERN KENAI. THOUGH A
FEW OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SUCCESSFULLY
TRAVERSE THE MOUNTAINS...CAUSING BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE ON THE
ANCHORAGE 12Z SOUNDING HAS BEEN NOTED SINCE YESTERDAYS 00Z
SOUNDING...WHICH EXPLAINS WHY SOME OF THE SHOWERS ARE GETTING OVER
THE CHUGACH.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF...ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THE PAST 24 HOURS ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF. FOR THIS
FEATURE...THE NAM WAS THE PREFERRED MODEL AS ITS BETTER RESOLUTION
HANDLES THE LOCAL EFFECTS OF THE STORM BETTER THAN THE GLOBAL
MODELS. FOR THE LOW HEADED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE CHOSEN MODEL AS FOR THE PAST
FEW RUNS IT HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT. THE EC HAS BEEN THE
FASTEST/FURTHEST NORTH OF THE MODELS...BUT RUN TO RUN HAS BEEN
TRENDING SOUTH WITH THE LOW...TOWARDS THE GFS POSITION. THE GFS
SOLUTION HAS BEEN TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE
STORM AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST...FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF
THE LOW NOW IN BRISTOL BAY.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS...THE NAM WAS ALSO THE
MODEL OF CHOICE AS IT IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER
MODELS AND HAS BETTER DETAILS WITH THE SMALL SCALE GAP FLOWS
THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS. ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE
BROAD...COLD...NORTHEAST SHOWERY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON BOTH SIDES REMAINS HIGH CONCERNING THE
LARGER FEATURES ALREADY DISCUSSED. AS THERE REMAINS NO LARGE
SCALE CHANGES IN THE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE...IT STANDS WITH GOOD REASON THAT SMALLER SCALE FEATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANGEABLE WEATHER TO SOUTHERN ALASKA
BETWEEN ANY BIGGER LOWS. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
THESE FEATURES WILL BE AFFECTING LOCALIZED AREAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE TIMING OF WHEN EACH
INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCE AFFECTS THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

ONCE THE WEAK LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF TRACKS NORTH AND INLAND
OVER YAKUTAT THE LARGE BLOCKING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND PUSH BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST TUESDAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
END QUICKLY WITH SKIES CLEARING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. THE
NEXT INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDE SPREAD
GALES TO THAT AREA. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY PICK UP TO STORM FORCE IN
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND COASTAL WATERS NEAR KODIAK ISLAND
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN PUSH ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE BRISTOL BAY REGION
BEFORE MOVING INTO THE KUSKOKWIM BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS
SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL THEN DIMINISH INTO A WEAK TROUGH GOING INTO
TUESDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COASTLINE IT
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA...AND THEN
TO DILLINGHAM WESTWARD BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
COASTLINE. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL MAINLY BE A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW FOR INLAND AREAS EXCEPT FOR ALL SNOW IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WHILE ALONG THE BRISTOL BAY COASTLINE THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ALL RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE MAJORITY OF THE BERING IS DOMINATED BY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING. THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL BE AFFECTED BY A NORTH PACIFIC STORM-FORCE
LOW LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CHAIN. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD IT
WILL BRING GALE-FORCE EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CHAIN
BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE LOWER BERING SEA HEADING INTO TUESDAY.
BY TUESDAY EVENING THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS ALONG THE CHAIN AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC. LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN MOSTLY
ALL RAIN ALONG THE CHAIN. WHILE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE WEST
OF ADAK THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED
OVER THE BERING SEA AND NORTHERN PACIFIC SHOWS NO SIGNS OF
DISSIPATING. SEVERAL STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOWS AND SHORTWAVES WILL
DROP INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF RUSSIA
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP RE-INVIGORATE THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN SIMILAR TO THAT OBSERVED OVER
THE PAST MONTH. MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND IT APPEARS UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THE
PLACEMENT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH KEEPS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IN THE MAIN STORM TRACK. NORMALLY FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR...THIS COULD BE A FAVORABLE SET UP TO BRING
SNOWFALL TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH
WILL BRING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FOR THE SUBTROPICS UP TOWARD
ALASKA AND ADVECT WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE ALASKA MAINLAND
(MORE FAVORABLE FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS). TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH A LOT OF
LOCATIONS SEEING NEAR OR ABOVE FREEING TEMPERATURES WHILE SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 127 130 131 136 138 139 155 170-174 176.
 STORM 132 150.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.

&&
$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...MC





000
FXAK68 PAFC 090113
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
413 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVELS...SINCE YESTERDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS
SOUTH OF KODIAK HAS BEEN ABSORBED INTO A NEW UPPER LOW. THE NEW
LOW AND CENTER OF CIRCULATION FOR THE NUMEROUS UPPER LEVEL WAVES
AND LOWS BOUND FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA IS NOW CENTERED SOUTH OF ADAK.
THE JET CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ZONAL SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW AS
IT LATERALLY TRANSLATES SOUTH. THE ZONAL JET IS PUSHING THE RIDGE
THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE THE PAST FEW DAYS OVER THE PANHANDLE
EASTWARD...WHICH WILL HELP TO DIMINISH THE INTENSITY OF FUTURE
DISTURBANCES ROTATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF TOWARDS THE COAST
DUE TO THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS... THE STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF
ADAK CONTINUES TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...WITH THE
FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OCCASIONALLY CAUSING GALE FORCE
WINDS ON THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE CHAIN. THE LOW THAT HAD BROUGHT
THE STRONG FRONT TO KODIAK AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS HAS NOW CROSSED THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO BRISTOL BAY.
A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WENT THROUGH
DILLINGHAM THIS MORNING AND HAVE MOVED WESTWARD INTO THE WOOD
RIVER MOUNTAINS. WINDS WITH THIS LOW ARE LIGHT. YET ANOTHER SURFACE
LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
DEPARTING JET STREAK. IT IS RACING NORTHWARD...THOUGH THE ONLY
REAL IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM IT ARE THE CONTINUATION OF COASTAL
SHOWERS NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. A FRONT IS APPROACHING SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA...WHICH FORMED FROM A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN BROAD SOUTHEAST FLOW. IT IS CAUSING SOME
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN KENAI AND WESTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPING IS LARGELY KEEPING ALL OF THE
ACTIVITY FROM REACHING ANCHORAGE AND THE WESTERN KENAI. THOUGH A
FEW OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SUCCESSFULLY
TRAVERSE THE MOUNTAINS...CAUSING BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE ON THE
ANCHORAGE 12Z SOUNDING HAS BEEN NOTED SINCE YESTERDAYS 00Z
SOUNDING...WHICH EXPLAINS WHY SOME OF THE SHOWERS ARE GETTING OVER
THE CHUGACH.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF...ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THE PAST 24 HOURS ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF. FOR THIS
FEATURE...THE NAM WAS THE PREFERRED MODEL AS ITS BETTER RESOLUTION
HANDLES THE LOCAL EFFECTS OF THE STORM BETTER THAN THE GLOBAL
MODELS. FOR THE LOW HEADED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE CHOSEN MODEL AS FOR THE PAST
FEW RUNS IT HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT. THE EC HAS BEEN THE
FASTEST/FURTHEST NORTH OF THE MODELS...BUT RUN TO RUN HAS BEEN
TRENDING SOUTH WITH THE LOW...TOWARDS THE GFS POSITION. THE GFS
SOLUTION HAS BEEN TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE
STORM AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST...FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF
THE LOW NOW IN BRISTOL BAY.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS...THE NAM WAS ALSO THE
MODEL OF CHOICE AS IT IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER
MODELS AND HAS BETTER DETAILS WITH THE SMALL SCALE GAP FLOWS
THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS. ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE
BROAD...COLD...NORTHEAST SHOWERY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON BOTH SIDES REMAINS HIGH CONCERNING THE
LARGER FEATURES ALREADY DISCUSSED. AS THERE REMAINS NO LARGE
SCALE CHANGES IN THE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE...IT STANDS WITH GOOD REASON THAT SMALLER SCALE FEATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANGEABLE WEATHER TO SOUTHERN ALASKA
BETWEEN ANY BIGGER LOWS. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
THESE FEATURES WILL BE AFFECTING LOCALIZED AREAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE TIMING OF WHEN EACH
INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCE AFFECTS THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

ONCE THE WEAK LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF TRACKS NORTH AND INLAND
OVER YAKUTAT THE LARGE BLOCKING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND PUSH BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST TUESDAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
END QUICKLY WITH SKIES CLEARING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. THE
NEXT INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDE SPREAD
GALES TO THAT AREA. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY PICK UP TO STORM FORCE IN
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND COASTAL WATERS NEAR KODIAK ISLAND
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN PUSH ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE BRISTOL BAY REGION
BEFORE MOVING INTO THE KUSKOKWIM BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS
SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL THEN DIMINISH INTO A WEAK TROUGH GOING INTO
TUESDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COASTLINE IT
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA...AND THEN
TO DILLINGHAM WESTWARD BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
COASTLINE. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL MAINLY BE A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW FOR INLAND AREAS EXCEPT FOR ALL SNOW IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WHILE ALONG THE BRISTOL BAY COASTLINE THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ALL RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE MAJORITY OF THE BERING IS DOMINATED BY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING. THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL BE AFFECTED BY A NORTH PACIFIC STORM-FORCE
LOW LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CHAIN. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD IT
WILL BRING GALE-FORCE EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CHAIN
BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE LOWER BERING SEA HEADING INTO TUESDAY.
BY TUESDAY EVENING THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS ALONG THE CHAIN AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC. LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN MOSTLY
ALL RAIN ALONG THE CHAIN. WHILE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE WEST
OF ADAK THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED
OVER THE BERING SEA AND NORTHERN PACIFIC SHOWS NO SIGNS OF
DISSIPATING. SEVERAL STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOWS AND SHORTWAVES WILL
DROP INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF RUSSIA
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP RE-INVIGORATE THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN SIMILAR TO THAT OBSERVED OVER
THE PAST MONTH. MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND IT APPEARS UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THE
PLACEMENT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH KEEPS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IN THE MAIN STORM TRACK. NORMALLY FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR...THIS COULD BE A FAVORABLE SET UP TO BRING
SNOWFALL TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH
WILL BRING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FOR THE SUBTROPICS UP TOWARD
ALASKA AND ADVECT WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE ALASKA MAINLAND
(MORE FAVORABLE FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS). TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH A LOT OF
LOCATIONS SEEING NEAR OR ABOVE FREEING TEMPERATURES WHILE SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 127 130 131 136 138 139 155 170-174 176.
 STORM 132 150.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.

&&
$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...MC





000
FXAK68 PAFC 081421
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
521 AM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A POWERFUL NORTH
PACIFIC JET STREAM...WHICH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP STRONG LOWS IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN...THERE IS A
MATURE HURRICANE FORCE LOW. FARTHER EAST...THERE IS A SECONDARY SOUTHERLY
UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE STREAM MOVING INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE. OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA...THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF
INTEREST IS THE LEFTOVER REMNANTS OF A ONCE LOW END STORM FORCE
(WINDS 50 TO 60 KNOTS) LOW AND FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. EAST OF THIS LOW...SHOWERS ARE
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND KENAI PENINSULA...WITH
ENOUGH COLD AIR TO SUPPORT SNOW AND MIXED RAIN. ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA...THE COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A NORTHEAST SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS KEEPING MOST INLAND LOCATIONS DRY WITH ONLY
SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AND THEY ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS FAR OUT AS THE NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS VERY HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WITH RIDGING SITTING OFF TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHCENTRAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
SEVERAL LOWS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE
FIRST CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE NORTH GULF COAST.
THE SECOND WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GULF TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ITS FRONT
HITTING THE COAST ALSO OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH. THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY ON THE GULF SIDE OF THE
COASTAL RANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...MON AND
TUE)...THE PATTERN REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED. YET ANOTHER LOW IS
PREPARING TO CROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA TODAY. AS IT DOES SO...IT
WILL CAUSE COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO GIVE WAY TO WARMER AND
MOISTER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME GUSTY
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH FAVORED GAPS...AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWEST
PARALLELING THE COASTLINE...PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE
WESTERN HALF OF BRISTOL BAY. AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS
WILL INITIALLY STAY SLIGHTLY DRIER UNDER CROSS-BARRIER FLOW. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA
INTO THE WESTERN CAPES. IT WILL LIKELY START AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN.

AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARD THE BERING STRAIT ON TUE...IT WILL ALSO
CAUSE WINDS TO SWITCH AROUND ACROSS THE YK DELTA. IT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR A PASSING RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWER...MAINLY TO COASTAL
AREAS. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE TUE BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF REPRIEVE TO THE GUSTIER WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2...MON AND
TUE)...A STORM-FORCE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG 385 NAUTICAL
MILES SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. BUT FOR THE CHAIN ITSELF
THOUGH...ONLY SOME GALE-FORCE EASTERLY WINDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA. THE LOW WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS IT WEAKENS. BY EARLY TUE...IT WILL
PUSH THE WARM OCCLUSION INTO DUTCH HARBOR BRINGING RAIN AND A
CHANCE TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THIS LOW WILL THEN DOMINATE THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE WARM OCCLUSION SLOWLY STRETCHING BACK
TOWARD ATKA AND ADAK WITH COLDER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND SNOW
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY DRY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND WITH STORMS SYSTEMS CONTINUING TO BRING ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING AND GULF OF ALASKA. TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
MOVES A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF ON ITS TRACK TOWARD THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. GUSTY GALE WINDS AND RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE GULF WITH STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE IF A DEEPER
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS. GUSTY WINDS ALONG CHANNELED COASTAL TERRAIN
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM
TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF. MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LOW AS IT NEARS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND CLOSED LOW IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC PICKS UP A FASTER EASTERLY TRACK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MID RANGE FORECAST
CHANGES ARE LIKELY TO BE MADE FOR WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF AND THE EASTERN BERING.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE  130 131 132 136 155 172 174 176 177 351 352

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...KH





000
FXAK68 PAFC 081421
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
521 AM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A POWERFUL NORTH
PACIFIC JET STREAM...WHICH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP STRONG LOWS IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN...THERE IS A
MATURE HURRICANE FORCE LOW. FARTHER EAST...THERE IS A SECONDARY SOUTHERLY
UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE STREAM MOVING INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE. OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA...THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF
INTEREST IS THE LEFTOVER REMNANTS OF A ONCE LOW END STORM FORCE
(WINDS 50 TO 60 KNOTS) LOW AND FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. EAST OF THIS LOW...SHOWERS ARE
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND KENAI PENINSULA...WITH
ENOUGH COLD AIR TO SUPPORT SNOW AND MIXED RAIN. ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA...THE COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A NORTHEAST SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS KEEPING MOST INLAND LOCATIONS DRY WITH ONLY
SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AND THEY ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS FAR OUT AS THE NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS VERY HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WITH RIDGING SITTING OFF TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHCENTRAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
SEVERAL LOWS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE
FIRST CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE NORTH GULF COAST.
THE SECOND WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GULF TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ITS FRONT
HITTING THE COAST ALSO OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH. THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY ON THE GULF SIDE OF THE
COASTAL RANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...MON AND
TUE)...THE PATTERN REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED. YET ANOTHER LOW IS
PREPARING TO CROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA TODAY. AS IT DOES SO...IT
WILL CAUSE COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO GIVE WAY TO WARMER AND
MOISTER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME GUSTY
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH FAVORED GAPS...AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWEST
PARALLELING THE COASTLINE...PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE
WESTERN HALF OF BRISTOL BAY. AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS
WILL INITIALLY STAY SLIGHTLY DRIER UNDER CROSS-BARRIER FLOW. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA
INTO THE WESTERN CAPES. IT WILL LIKELY START AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN.

AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARD THE BERING STRAIT ON TUE...IT WILL ALSO
CAUSE WINDS TO SWITCH AROUND ACROSS THE YK DELTA. IT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR A PASSING RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWER...MAINLY TO COASTAL
AREAS. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE TUE BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF REPRIEVE TO THE GUSTIER WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2...MON AND
TUE)...A STORM-FORCE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG 385 NAUTICAL
MILES SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. BUT FOR THE CHAIN ITSELF
THOUGH...ONLY SOME GALE-FORCE EASTERLY WINDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA. THE LOW WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS IT WEAKENS. BY EARLY TUE...IT WILL
PUSH THE WARM OCCLUSION INTO DUTCH HARBOR BRINGING RAIN AND A
CHANCE TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THIS LOW WILL THEN DOMINATE THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE WARM OCCLUSION SLOWLY STRETCHING BACK
TOWARD ATKA AND ADAK WITH COLDER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND SNOW
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY DRY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND WITH STORMS SYSTEMS CONTINUING TO BRING ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING AND GULF OF ALASKA. TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
MOVES A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF ON ITS TRACK TOWARD THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. GUSTY GALE WINDS AND RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE GULF WITH STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE IF A DEEPER
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS. GUSTY WINDS ALONG CHANNELED COASTAL TERRAIN
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM
TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF. MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LOW AS IT NEARS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND CLOSED LOW IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC PICKS UP A FASTER EASTERLY TRACK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MID RANGE FORECAST
CHANGES ARE LIKELY TO BE MADE FOR WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF AND THE EASTERN BERING.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE  130 131 132 136 155 172 174 176 177 351 352

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...KH





000
FXAK68 PAFC 081421
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
521 AM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A POWERFUL NORTH
PACIFIC JET STREAM...WHICH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP STRONG LOWS IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN...THERE IS A
MATURE HURRICANE FORCE LOW. FARTHER EAST...THERE IS A SECONDARY SOUTHERLY
UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE STREAM MOVING INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE. OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA...THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF
INTEREST IS THE LEFTOVER REMNANTS OF A ONCE LOW END STORM FORCE
(WINDS 50 TO 60 KNOTS) LOW AND FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. EAST OF THIS LOW...SHOWERS ARE
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND KENAI PENINSULA...WITH
ENOUGH COLD AIR TO SUPPORT SNOW AND MIXED RAIN. ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA...THE COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A NORTHEAST SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS KEEPING MOST INLAND LOCATIONS DRY WITH ONLY
SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AND THEY ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS FAR OUT AS THE NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS VERY HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WITH RIDGING SITTING OFF TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHCENTRAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
SEVERAL LOWS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE
FIRST CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE NORTH GULF COAST.
THE SECOND WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GULF TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ITS FRONT
HITTING THE COAST ALSO OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH. THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY ON THE GULF SIDE OF THE
COASTAL RANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...MON AND
TUE)...THE PATTERN REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED. YET ANOTHER LOW IS
PREPARING TO CROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA TODAY. AS IT DOES SO...IT
WILL CAUSE COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO GIVE WAY TO WARMER AND
MOISTER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME GUSTY
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH FAVORED GAPS...AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWEST
PARALLELING THE COASTLINE...PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE
WESTERN HALF OF BRISTOL BAY. AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS
WILL INITIALLY STAY SLIGHTLY DRIER UNDER CROSS-BARRIER FLOW. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA
INTO THE WESTERN CAPES. IT WILL LIKELY START AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN.

AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARD THE BERING STRAIT ON TUE...IT WILL ALSO
CAUSE WINDS TO SWITCH AROUND ACROSS THE YK DELTA. IT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR A PASSING RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWER...MAINLY TO COASTAL
AREAS. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE TUE BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF REPRIEVE TO THE GUSTIER WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2...MON AND
TUE)...A STORM-FORCE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG 385 NAUTICAL
MILES SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. BUT FOR THE CHAIN ITSELF
THOUGH...ONLY SOME GALE-FORCE EASTERLY WINDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA. THE LOW WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS IT WEAKENS. BY EARLY TUE...IT WILL
PUSH THE WARM OCCLUSION INTO DUTCH HARBOR BRINGING RAIN AND A
CHANCE TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THIS LOW WILL THEN DOMINATE THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE WARM OCCLUSION SLOWLY STRETCHING BACK
TOWARD ATKA AND ADAK WITH COLDER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND SNOW
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY DRY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND WITH STORMS SYSTEMS CONTINUING TO BRING ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING AND GULF OF ALASKA. TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
MOVES A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF ON ITS TRACK TOWARD THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. GUSTY GALE WINDS AND RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE GULF WITH STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE IF A DEEPER
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS. GUSTY WINDS ALONG CHANNELED COASTAL TERRAIN
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM
TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF. MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LOW AS IT NEARS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND CLOSED LOW IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC PICKS UP A FASTER EASTERLY TRACK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MID RANGE FORECAST
CHANGES ARE LIKELY TO BE MADE FOR WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF AND THE EASTERN BERING.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE  130 131 132 136 155 172 174 176 177 351 352

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...KH




000
FXAK68 PAFC 080309
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
609 PM AKST SUN FEB 7 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA AND
ADJACENT WATERS REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME THIS AFTERNOON. THE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE GULF IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS A NEW
LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC RACES EASTWARD ON A SUBTROPICAL JET.
THE JET IS WORKING TO RETURN THE FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN...WHICH WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF LARGELY BENIGN
WEATHER FOR INTERIOR SOUTHERN ALASKA. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE MAINLY BEING DOMINATED BY WEAK FEATURES ROTATING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...AS ANY STRONG LOWS
REMAIN COUPLED WITH THE JET OVER THE PACIFIC WELL SOUTH OF ALASKA.

THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD GALES BUT WITH ONLY LOCALIZED STORM FORCE
WINDS AROUND KODIAK ISLAND AND THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. THE FRONT IS WEAKENING SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW WEAKENS AND THE UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT MOVES AWAY TO
THE EAST. MIDDLETON ISLAND RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE COAST THROUGH SOUTHERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND...OTHERWISE VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT HAS BEEN REPORTED ELSEWHERE. HIGH CLOUDINESS IS
MOVING INTO INLAND SOUTHCENTRAL...WITH WINDS NOW FLOWING OFFSHORE
ACROSS ALL OF COOK INLET IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT.
SURFACE RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA KEEPING SKIES
MAINLY CLEAR IN AREAS NORTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

OVER TO THE ALEUTIANS...A STRONG LOW BEING ENHANCED BY A 180 KT
JET IS BARRELING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. THE STRONG WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT
ARE JUST BEGINNING TO REACH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON.
VERY WEAK FEATURES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
BERING...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ALONG WITH
WEAK WINDS THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORIES.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS REMAIN IN ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
NEARLY ALL OF THEM SUPPORT CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE FRONT AND
LOW MOVING TOWARDS THE ALASKA PENINSULA. SOME DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE MODELS APPEAR LOOKING TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING WHEN A
NEW RELATIVELY WEAK LOW FORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SOUTH OF
THE GULF...BUT MOVES INTO THE GULF BY MONDAY EVENING. THE EC IS
THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE NAM BEING THE SLOWEST. GIVEN
THE EXPECTATION OF RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT FROM IT...THE GFS WAS
CHOSEN AS A HAPPY MEDIUM BETWEEN THE OTHER MODELS.

OUT WEST...THE EC HAS BEEN HANDLING THE STRONG LOW MOVING TOWARDS
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BEST...AND IT WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE
CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
GIVEN THE BROAD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY FILL AS IT TRACKS NORTH TONIGHT THEN CROSSES THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH GULF WILL
MOVE OVER KODIAK ISLAND...THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE
WILLIAM TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL BECOME STALLED THROUGH MONDAY. THE
POSITION OF THE FRONT AND TRACK OF THE LOW ARE BOTH FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST GAP WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AS WELL
AS OTHER SIMILARLY ORIENTED TERRAIN GAPS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING THEN A SHIFT TO
STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
AS THE LOW PASSES BY THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ISLAND. ANOTHER WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN TRACK NORTH TOWARDS YAKUTAT AND DRY BAY
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT STRONGER LOW MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CROSS 50N AROUND 145W TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A DECAYING FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE MAINLAND TONIGHT. INITIALLY
TONIGHT THE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR FLURRIES ALONG THE WOOD RIVER MOUNTAINS OR
SOME SPRINKLES TO THE EAST NEARER THE ALEUTIAN RANGE. AS THE FRONT
PASSES TOMORROW...A LITTLE MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM DILLINGHAM
NORTH AND WEST...MIXED WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF DILLINGHAM. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE EAST AND GET
A LITTLE GUSTY BUT SHOULD BE SUB-STRONG WIND RANGE. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER ON MONDAY NIGHT BUT A DRYING AND CLEARING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND TURN TO THE
NORTH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE BERING SEA WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A FRONT APPROACHING THE WESTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THE
GALE FORCE FRONT WILL JUST MAKE IT TO THE CHAIN AND SLOWLY SLIDE
WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
CHAIN WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY DRY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND WITH STORMS SYSTEMS CONTINUING TO BRING ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING AND GULF OF ALASKA. TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
MOVES A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF ON ITS TRACK TOWARD THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. GUSTY GALE WINDS AND RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE GULF WITH STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE IF A DEEPER
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS. GUSTY WINDS ALONG CHANNELED COASTAL TERRAIN
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM
TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF. MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LOW AS IT NEARS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND CLOSED LOW IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC PICKS UP A FASTER EASTERLY TRACK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MID RANGE FORECAST
CHANGES ARE LIKELY TO BE MADE FOR WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF AND THE EASTERN BERING.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 130 131 132 138 139 150 155 172 174 176 177.

&&
$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...KH
&&





000
FXAK68 PAFC 080309
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
609 PM AKST SUN FEB 7 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA AND
ADJACENT WATERS REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME THIS AFTERNOON. THE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE GULF IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS A NEW
LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC RACES EASTWARD ON A SUBTROPICAL JET.
THE JET IS WORKING TO RETURN THE FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN...WHICH WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF LARGELY BENIGN
WEATHER FOR INTERIOR SOUTHERN ALASKA. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE MAINLY BEING DOMINATED BY WEAK FEATURES ROTATING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...AS ANY STRONG LOWS
REMAIN COUPLED WITH THE JET OVER THE PACIFIC WELL SOUTH OF ALASKA.

THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD GALES BUT WITH ONLY LOCALIZED STORM FORCE
WINDS AROUND KODIAK ISLAND AND THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. THE FRONT IS WEAKENING SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW WEAKENS AND THE UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT MOVES AWAY TO
THE EAST. MIDDLETON ISLAND RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE COAST THROUGH SOUTHERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND...OTHERWISE VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT HAS BEEN REPORTED ELSEWHERE. HIGH CLOUDINESS IS
MOVING INTO INLAND SOUTHCENTRAL...WITH WINDS NOW FLOWING OFFSHORE
ACROSS ALL OF COOK INLET IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT.
SURFACE RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA KEEPING SKIES
MAINLY CLEAR IN AREAS NORTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

OVER TO THE ALEUTIANS...A STRONG LOW BEING ENHANCED BY A 180 KT
JET IS BARRELING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. THE STRONG WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT
ARE JUST BEGINNING TO REACH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON.
VERY WEAK FEATURES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
BERING...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ALONG WITH
WEAK WINDS THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORIES.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS REMAIN IN ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
NEARLY ALL OF THEM SUPPORT CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE FRONT AND
LOW MOVING TOWARDS THE ALASKA PENINSULA. SOME DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE MODELS APPEAR LOOKING TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING WHEN A
NEW RELATIVELY WEAK LOW FORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SOUTH OF
THE GULF...BUT MOVES INTO THE GULF BY MONDAY EVENING. THE EC IS
THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE NAM BEING THE SLOWEST. GIVEN
THE EXPECTATION OF RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT FROM IT...THE GFS WAS
CHOSEN AS A HAPPY MEDIUM BETWEEN THE OTHER MODELS.

OUT WEST...THE EC HAS BEEN HANDLING THE STRONG LOW MOVING TOWARDS
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BEST...AND IT WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE
CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
GIVEN THE BROAD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY FILL AS IT TRACKS NORTH TONIGHT THEN CROSSES THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH GULF WILL
MOVE OVER KODIAK ISLAND...THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE
WILLIAM TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL BECOME STALLED THROUGH MONDAY. THE
POSITION OF THE FRONT AND TRACK OF THE LOW ARE BOTH FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST GAP WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AS WELL
AS OTHER SIMILARLY ORIENTED TERRAIN GAPS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING THEN A SHIFT TO
STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
AS THE LOW PASSES BY THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ISLAND. ANOTHER WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN TRACK NORTH TOWARDS YAKUTAT AND DRY BAY
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT STRONGER LOW MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CROSS 50N AROUND 145W TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A DECAYING FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE MAINLAND TONIGHT. INITIALLY
TONIGHT THE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR FLURRIES ALONG THE WOOD RIVER MOUNTAINS OR
SOME SPRINKLES TO THE EAST NEARER THE ALEUTIAN RANGE. AS THE FRONT
PASSES TOMORROW...A LITTLE MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM DILLINGHAM
NORTH AND WEST...MIXED WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF DILLINGHAM. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE EAST AND GET
A LITTLE GUSTY BUT SHOULD BE SUB-STRONG WIND RANGE. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER ON MONDAY NIGHT BUT A DRYING AND CLEARING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND TURN TO THE
NORTH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE BERING SEA WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A FRONT APPROACHING THE WESTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THE
GALE FORCE FRONT WILL JUST MAKE IT TO THE CHAIN AND SLOWLY SLIDE
WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
CHAIN WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY DRY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND WITH STORMS SYSTEMS CONTINUING TO BRING ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING AND GULF OF ALASKA. TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
MOVES A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF ON ITS TRACK TOWARD THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. GUSTY GALE WINDS AND RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE GULF WITH STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE IF A DEEPER
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS. GUSTY WINDS ALONG CHANNELED COASTAL TERRAIN
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM
TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF. MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LOW AS IT NEARS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND CLOSED LOW IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC PICKS UP A FASTER EASTERLY TRACK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MID RANGE FORECAST
CHANGES ARE LIKELY TO BE MADE FOR WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF AND THE EASTERN BERING.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 130 131 132 138 139 150 155 172 174 176 177.

&&
$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...KH
&&




000
FXAK68 PAFC 080309
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
609 PM AKST SUN FEB 7 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA AND
ADJACENT WATERS REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME THIS AFTERNOON. THE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE GULF IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS A NEW
LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC RACES EASTWARD ON A SUBTROPICAL JET.
THE JET IS WORKING TO RETURN THE FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN...WHICH WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF LARGELY BENIGN
WEATHER FOR INTERIOR SOUTHERN ALASKA. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE MAINLY BEING DOMINATED BY WEAK FEATURES ROTATING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...AS ANY STRONG LOWS
REMAIN COUPLED WITH THE JET OVER THE PACIFIC WELL SOUTH OF ALASKA.

THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD GALES BUT WITH ONLY LOCALIZED STORM FORCE
WINDS AROUND KODIAK ISLAND AND THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. THE FRONT IS WEAKENING SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW WEAKENS AND THE UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT MOVES AWAY TO
THE EAST. MIDDLETON ISLAND RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE COAST THROUGH SOUTHERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND...OTHERWISE VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT HAS BEEN REPORTED ELSEWHERE. HIGH CLOUDINESS IS
MOVING INTO INLAND SOUTHCENTRAL...WITH WINDS NOW FLOWING OFFSHORE
ACROSS ALL OF COOK INLET IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT.
SURFACE RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA KEEPING SKIES
MAINLY CLEAR IN AREAS NORTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

OVER TO THE ALEUTIANS...A STRONG LOW BEING ENHANCED BY A 180 KT
JET IS BARRELING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. THE STRONG WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT
ARE JUST BEGINNING TO REACH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON.
VERY WEAK FEATURES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
BERING...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ALONG WITH
WEAK WINDS THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORIES.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS REMAIN IN ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
NEARLY ALL OF THEM SUPPORT CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE FRONT AND
LOW MOVING TOWARDS THE ALASKA PENINSULA. SOME DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE MODELS APPEAR LOOKING TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING WHEN A
NEW RELATIVELY WEAK LOW FORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SOUTH OF
THE GULF...BUT MOVES INTO THE GULF BY MONDAY EVENING. THE EC IS
THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE NAM BEING THE SLOWEST. GIVEN
THE EXPECTATION OF RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT FROM IT...THE GFS WAS
CHOSEN AS A HAPPY MEDIUM BETWEEN THE OTHER MODELS.

OUT WEST...THE EC HAS BEEN HANDLING THE STRONG LOW MOVING TOWARDS
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BEST...AND IT WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE
CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
GIVEN THE BROAD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY FILL AS IT TRACKS NORTH TONIGHT THEN CROSSES THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH GULF WILL
MOVE OVER KODIAK ISLAND...THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE
WILLIAM TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL BECOME STALLED THROUGH MONDAY. THE
POSITION OF THE FRONT AND TRACK OF THE LOW ARE BOTH FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST GAP WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AS WELL
AS OTHER SIMILARLY ORIENTED TERRAIN GAPS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING THEN A SHIFT TO
STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
AS THE LOW PASSES BY THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ISLAND. ANOTHER WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN TRACK NORTH TOWARDS YAKUTAT AND DRY BAY
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT STRONGER LOW MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CROSS 50N AROUND 145W TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A DECAYING FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE MAINLAND TONIGHT. INITIALLY
TONIGHT THE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR FLURRIES ALONG THE WOOD RIVER MOUNTAINS OR
SOME SPRINKLES TO THE EAST NEARER THE ALEUTIAN RANGE. AS THE FRONT
PASSES TOMORROW...A LITTLE MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM DILLINGHAM
NORTH AND WEST...MIXED WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF DILLINGHAM. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE EAST AND GET
A LITTLE GUSTY BUT SHOULD BE SUB-STRONG WIND RANGE. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER ON MONDAY NIGHT BUT A DRYING AND CLEARING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND TURN TO THE
NORTH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE BERING SEA WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A FRONT APPROACHING THE WESTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THE
GALE FORCE FRONT WILL JUST MAKE IT TO THE CHAIN AND SLOWLY SLIDE
WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
CHAIN WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY DRY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND WITH STORMS SYSTEMS CONTINUING TO BRING ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING AND GULF OF ALASKA. TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
MOVES A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF ON ITS TRACK TOWARD THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. GUSTY GALE WINDS AND RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE GULF WITH STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE IF A DEEPER
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS. GUSTY WINDS ALONG CHANNELED COASTAL TERRAIN
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM
TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF. MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LOW AS IT NEARS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND CLOSED LOW IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC PICKS UP A FASTER EASTERLY TRACK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MID RANGE FORECAST
CHANGES ARE LIKELY TO BE MADE FOR WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF AND THE EASTERN BERING.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 130 131 132 138 139 150 155 172 174 176 177.

&&
$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...KH
&&





000
FXAK68 PAFC 080127
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
427 PM AKST SUN FEB 7 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

ANOTHER STRONG BUT WEAKENING NORTH PACIFIC LOW IS NOW MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TODAY...WHICH IS INTERACTING WITH A
RATHER STOUT WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE. A POWERFUL EAST ASIAN
JET STREAM CAN BE SEEN ON BOTH GOES WEST AND HIMAWARI SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING...WITH A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW FORMING
ALONG IT. THIS LEAVES THE BERING SEA AND SOUTHERN ALASKA UNDER A
MUCH WEAKER FLOW REGIME AS THE PACIFIC JET STREAM REMAINS TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST. WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS NOSING
THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHERN ALASKA...THIS IS LEAVING RATHER QUIESCENT
WEATHER INLAND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST (AND
PARTS OF THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY) WHERE SHOWERS REMAIN BEHIND A
WEAKENING AND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH TIME...THE POWERFUL
LOW FORMING SOUTHEAST OF KAMCHATKA AND SOUTHWEST OF THE FAR
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME THE NEXT ANCHORING TROUGH
FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN OVER
SOUTHERN ALASKA. IN OTHER WORDS...NO CHANGE IN THE PATTERN.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA...AND THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THEY ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE DEEP
LOW MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND REMAIN IN EXCELLENT LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT DEEP INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY DISCREPANCY OF NOTE IS WITH A LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC BEFORE IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS UP TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE SLOWER. THE CANADIAN IS IN THE
MIDDLE...WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LOOKS LIKE THE ECMWF. THE
FORECAST FAVORS THE FASTER SOLUTIONS...WHICH BRINGS THE FRONT INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL BY WED MORNING AS OPPOSED TO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY FILL AS IT TRACKS NORTH TONIGHT THEN CROSSES THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH GULF WILL
MOVE OVER KODIAK ISLAND...THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL BECOME STALLED THROUGH
MONDAY. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND TRACK OF THE LOW ARE BOTH
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST GAP WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN
ARM AS WELL AS OTHER SIMILARLY ORIENTED TERRAIN GAPS. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING
THEN A SHIFT TO STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PASSES BY THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ISLAND.
ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN TRACK NORTH TOWARDS YAKUTAT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT STRONGER LOW
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CROSS 50N AROUND 145W TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM SPREADING INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A DECAYING FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE MAINLAND TONIGHT. INITIALLY
TONIGHT THE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR FLURRIES ALONG THE WOOD RIVER MOUNTAINS OR
SOME SPRINKLES TO THE EAST NEARER THE ALEUTIAN RANGE. AS THE FRONT
PASSES TOMORROW...A LITTLE MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM DILLINGHAM
NORTH AND WEST...MIXED WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF DILLINGHAM. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE EAST AND GET
A LITTLE GUSTY BUT SHOULD BE SUB-STRONG WIND RANGE. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER ON MONDAY NIGHT BUT A DRYING AND CLEARING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND TURN TO THE
NORTH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S...WITH LOW 40S ALONG THE ALEUTIAN
RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE BERING SEA WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A FRONT APPROACHING THE WESTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THE
GALE FORCE FRONT WILL JUST MAKE IT TO THE CHAIN AND SLOWLY SLIDE
WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
CHAIN WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY DRY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND WITH STORMS SYSTEMS CONTINUING TO BRING ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING AND GULF OF ALASKA. TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
MOVES A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF ON ITS TRACK TOWARD THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. GUSTY GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAIN WILL SPREAD
EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE GULF WITH STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE IF A
DEEPER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS. GUSTY WINDS ALONG CHANNELED COASTAL
TERRAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THIS NEXT
SYSTEM TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF.
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LOW AS IT NEARS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND CLOSED LOW IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC PICKS UP A FASTER EASTERLY TRACK ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MID RANGE
FORECAST CHANGES ARE LIKELY TO BE MADE FOR WINDS AND PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND THE EASTERN BERING.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 130 131 132 138 139 150 155 172 174 176 177.

&&
$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...KH





000
FXAK68 PAFC 080127
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
427 PM AKST SUN FEB 7 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

ANOTHER STRONG BUT WEAKENING NORTH PACIFIC LOW IS NOW MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TODAY...WHICH IS INTERACTING WITH A
RATHER STOUT WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE. A POWERFUL EAST ASIAN
JET STREAM CAN BE SEEN ON BOTH GOES WEST AND HIMAWARI SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING...WITH A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW FORMING
ALONG IT. THIS LEAVES THE BERING SEA AND SOUTHERN ALASKA UNDER A
MUCH WEAKER FLOW REGIME AS THE PACIFIC JET STREAM REMAINS TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST. WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS NOSING
THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHERN ALASKA...THIS IS LEAVING RATHER QUIESCENT
WEATHER INLAND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST (AND
PARTS OF THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY) WHERE SHOWERS REMAIN BEHIND A
WEAKENING AND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH TIME...THE POWERFUL
LOW FORMING SOUTHEAST OF KAMCHATKA AND SOUTHWEST OF THE FAR
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME THE NEXT ANCHORING TROUGH
FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN OVER
SOUTHERN ALASKA. IN OTHER WORDS...NO CHANGE IN THE PATTERN.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA...AND THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THEY ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE DEEP
LOW MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND REMAIN IN EXCELLENT LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT DEEP INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY DISCREPANCY OF NOTE IS WITH A LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC BEFORE IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS UP TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE SLOWER. THE CANADIAN IS IN THE
MIDDLE...WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LOOKS LIKE THE ECMWF. THE
FORECAST FAVORS THE FASTER SOLUTIONS...WHICH BRINGS THE FRONT INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL BY WED MORNING AS OPPOSED TO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY FILL AS IT TRACKS NORTH TONIGHT THEN CROSSES THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH GULF WILL
MOVE OVER KODIAK ISLAND...THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL BECOME STALLED THROUGH
MONDAY. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND TRACK OF THE LOW ARE BOTH
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST GAP WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN
ARM AS WELL AS OTHER SIMILARLY ORIENTED TERRAIN GAPS. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING
THEN A SHIFT TO STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PASSES BY THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ISLAND.
ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN TRACK NORTH TOWARDS YAKUTAT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT STRONGER LOW
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CROSS 50N AROUND 145W TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM SPREADING INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A DECAYING FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE MAINLAND TONIGHT. INITIALLY
TONIGHT THE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR FLURRIES ALONG THE WOOD RIVER MOUNTAINS OR
SOME SPRINKLES TO THE EAST NEARER THE ALEUTIAN RANGE. AS THE FRONT
PASSES TOMORROW...A LITTLE MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM DILLINGHAM
NORTH AND WEST...MIXED WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF DILLINGHAM. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE EAST AND GET
A LITTLE GUSTY BUT SHOULD BE SUB-STRONG WIND RANGE. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER ON MONDAY NIGHT BUT A DRYING AND CLEARING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND TURN TO THE
NORTH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S...WITH LOW 40S ALONG THE ALEUTIAN
RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE BERING SEA WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A FRONT APPROACHING THE WESTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THE
GALE FORCE FRONT WILL JUST MAKE IT TO THE CHAIN AND SLOWLY SLIDE
WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
CHAIN WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY DRY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND WITH STORMS SYSTEMS CONTINUING TO BRING ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING AND GULF OF ALASKA. TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
MOVES A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF ON ITS TRACK TOWARD THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. GUSTY GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAIN WILL SPREAD
EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE GULF WITH STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE IF A
DEEPER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS. GUSTY WINDS ALONG CHANNELED COASTAL
TERRAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THIS NEXT
SYSTEM TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF.
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LOW AS IT NEARS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND CLOSED LOW IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC PICKS UP A FASTER EASTERLY TRACK ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MID RANGE
FORECAST CHANGES ARE LIKELY TO BE MADE FOR WINDS AND PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND THE EASTERN BERING.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 130 131 132 138 139 150 155 172 174 176 177.

&&
$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...KH





000
FXAK68 PAFC 080127
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
427 PM AKST SUN FEB 7 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

ANOTHER STRONG BUT WEAKENING NORTH PACIFIC LOW IS NOW MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TODAY...WHICH IS INTERACTING WITH A
RATHER STOUT WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE. A POWERFUL EAST ASIAN
JET STREAM CAN BE SEEN ON BOTH GOES WEST AND HIMAWARI SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING...WITH A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW FORMING
ALONG IT. THIS LEAVES THE BERING SEA AND SOUTHERN ALASKA UNDER A
MUCH WEAKER FLOW REGIME AS THE PACIFIC JET STREAM REMAINS TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST. WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS NOSING
THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHERN ALASKA...THIS IS LEAVING RATHER QUIESCENT
WEATHER INLAND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST (AND
PARTS OF THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY) WHERE SHOWERS REMAIN BEHIND A
WEAKENING AND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH TIME...THE POWERFUL
LOW FORMING SOUTHEAST OF KAMCHATKA AND SOUTHWEST OF THE FAR
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME THE NEXT ANCHORING TROUGH
FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN OVER
SOUTHERN ALASKA. IN OTHER WORDS...NO CHANGE IN THE PATTERN.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA...AND THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THEY ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE DEEP
LOW MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND REMAIN IN EXCELLENT LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT DEEP INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY DISCREPANCY OF NOTE IS WITH A LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC BEFORE IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS UP TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE SLOWER. THE CANADIAN IS IN THE
MIDDLE...WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LOOKS LIKE THE ECMWF. THE
FORECAST FAVORS THE FASTER SOLUTIONS...WHICH BRINGS THE FRONT INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL BY WED MORNING AS OPPOSED TO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY FILL AS IT TRACKS NORTH TONIGHT THEN CROSSES THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH GULF WILL
MOVE OVER KODIAK ISLAND...THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL BECOME STALLED THROUGH
MONDAY. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND TRACK OF THE LOW ARE BOTH
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST GAP WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN
ARM AS WELL AS OTHER SIMILARLY ORIENTED TERRAIN GAPS. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING
THEN A SHIFT TO STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PASSES BY THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ISLAND.
ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN TRACK NORTH TOWARDS YAKUTAT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT STRONGER LOW
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CROSS 50N AROUND 145W TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM SPREADING INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A DECAYING FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE MAINLAND TONIGHT. INITIALLY
TONIGHT THE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR FLURRIES ALONG THE WOOD RIVER MOUNTAINS OR
SOME SPRINKLES TO THE EAST NEARER THE ALEUTIAN RANGE. AS THE FRONT
PASSES TOMORROW...A LITTLE MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM DILLINGHAM
NORTH AND WEST...MIXED WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF DILLINGHAM. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE EAST AND GET
A LITTLE GUSTY BUT SHOULD BE SUB-STRONG WIND RANGE. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER ON MONDAY NIGHT BUT A DRYING AND CLEARING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND TURN TO THE
NORTH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S...WITH LOW 40S ALONG THE ALEUTIAN
RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE BERING SEA WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A FRONT APPROACHING THE WESTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THE
GALE FORCE FRONT WILL JUST MAKE IT TO THE CHAIN AND SLOWLY SLIDE
WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
CHAIN WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY DRY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND WITH STORMS SYSTEMS CONTINUING TO BRING ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING AND GULF OF ALASKA. TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
MOVES A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF ON ITS TRACK TOWARD THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. GUSTY GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAIN WILL SPREAD
EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE GULF WITH STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE IF A
DEEPER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS. GUSTY WINDS ALONG CHANNELED COASTAL
TERRAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THIS NEXT
SYSTEM TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF.
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LOW AS IT NEARS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND CLOSED LOW IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC PICKS UP A FASTER EASTERLY TRACK ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MID RANGE
FORECAST CHANGES ARE LIKELY TO BE MADE FOR WINDS AND PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND THE EASTERN BERING.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 130 131 132 138 139 150 155 172 174 176 177.

&&
$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...KH




000
FXAK68 PAFC 071338
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
438 AM AKST SUN FEB 7 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

ANOTHER STRONG BUT WEAKENING NORTH PACIFIC LOW IS NOW MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING...WHICH IS INTERACTING
WITH A RATHER STOUT WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE. A POWERFUL EAST
ASIAN JET STREAM CAN BE SEEN ON BOTH GOES WEST AND HIMAWARI
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING...WITH A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW
FORMING ALONG IT. THIS LEAVES THE BERING SEA AND SOUTHERN ALASKA
UNDER A MUCH WEAKER FLOW REGIME AS THE PACIFIC JET STREAM REMAINS
TO OUR SOUTH AND THE EAST. WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
NOSING THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHERN ALASKA...THIS IS LEAVING RATHER
QUIESCENT WEATHER INLAND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST (AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY) WHERE SHOWERS
REMAIN BEHIND A WEAKENING AND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH
TIME...THE POWERFUL LOW FORMING SOUTHEAST OF KAMCHATKA AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME THE
NEXT ANCHORING TROUGH FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. IN OTHER WORDS...NO
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WITH NO "WINTER" PATTERNS IN SIGHT.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA...AND THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THEY ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE DEEP
LOW MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND REMAIN IN EXCELLENT LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT DEEP INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY DISCREPANCY OF NOTE IS WITH A BASAL LOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC BEFORE IT MOVES INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS UP TO 12 HOURS FASTER
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE SLOW OUTLIERS. THE
CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE...WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LOOKS LIKE
THE ECMWF. THE FORECAST FAVORS THE FASTER SOLUTIONS...WHICH BRINGS
THE FRONT INTO SOUTHCENTRAL BY WED MORNING AS OPPOSED TO
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL REACH THE GULF COAST LATER
TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE ALASKA PENINSULA
INTO BRISTOL BAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
FALL ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS GETTING INLAND. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SLOWLY TAPER OFF...IN THE
MOIST UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL SWING A
FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS
FRONT WILL BE MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AND AN INCREASE IN WINDS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING LATER MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERY PRECIPITATION AND
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...STRONGEST
THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE ALEUTIAN RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A COUPLE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL AFFECT THE AREA...ONE SWINGING OVER
THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATER TODAY WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW
MOVING INTO BRISTOL BAY...THE OTHER WILL JUST REACH THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE AROUND
GALE FORCE WITH THE MAIN LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE CHAIN. THE MAIN
IMPACTS FOR THE LAND AREAS WILL BE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN TOWARD
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF AND BERING
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
FAVORED DOWNSLOPING INLAND LOCATIONS. A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHING OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY EVENING WILL TRACK
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN BERING WHILE DISSIPATING TUESDAY MORNING...
KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
LOW ORGANIZES SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MONDAY EVENING...AND
TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A GALE FORCE FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS OVERNIGHT MONDAY...WITH EQUALLY AS
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR
OFF EASTERN RUSSIA ADVECTS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO LOSE MOMENTUM BY
WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS RIDGE
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO SHUNT PROGRESS OF THIS LOW AND ANOTHER LOW
TRACKING IN FROM THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA. THIS KEEPS TEMPERATURE
TRENDS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM TRACKING UP FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
WILL BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE GULF WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY
TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING... BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF WET AND WINDY WEATHER TO THE AREAS SURROUNDING
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

OVERALL THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH THE EC AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVING THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE SYSTEMS ENTERING OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AS ONE COULD IMAGINE...THERE ARE THE USUAL TIMING AND STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS GIVEN HOW FAR OUT THE FORECAST
GOES. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL
GIVEN THE FAIR SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS
TO THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 131 132 138 150
         GALE  119 120 130 136 137 139 155 160 174 175 176
               177 178 351 352
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...RF/TP





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