Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXAK69 PAFG 042311
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
311 PM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. STRONG ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE A
DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
STATE FROM THE ARCTIC COAST TO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY WED MORNING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL ADVECT IN MUCH COLDER AIR OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST ON WED. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
AHEAD OF THE COLDER AIR THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW
SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND THE BROOKS
RANGE.

AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD IT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RAINFALL WILL INCREASE AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THERMAL TROUGH AND THERMAL
LOW.

THE NEXT AND MORE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER
THE WEST COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL FRONT WILL
NOT PRODUCE THAT MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST AND THE
ARCTIC COAST IT WILL TAP INTO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IT PRODUCES AS
THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT SHOULD
PRODUCE MORE RAINFALL OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THAN THE FIRST
FRONT. THE WEST COAST GETS SPARED MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEAST BERING SEA TO
THE WESTERN INTERIOR THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD TO BE MAINLY
OVER THE WEST COAST. A THERMAL INDUCED TROUGH IS DEVELOPING TODAY
NEAR THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND THE YUKON
FLATS. THE THERMAL TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN TOMORROW AND
THIS WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
INTERIOR ALASKA ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. PORTIONS OF THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY MAY SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER
THE WEST COAST THROUGH WED NIGHT.

OVERALL...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL AND THIS COULD BE ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE LIGHT FLOW
ALOFT THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU. THOUGH WILL SEE MINIMUM RH
VALUES DROP SUB-30 PERCENT WED IN THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. DECENT
MIXING COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING THERMAL RIDGE AND SUFFICIENT
INSOLATION SHOULD PROMPT RH VALUES THERE TO DECLINE BELOW 30
PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

$$

CF AUG 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 042311
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
311 PM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. STRONG ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE A
DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
STATE FROM THE ARCTIC COAST TO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY WED MORNING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL ADVECT IN MUCH COLDER AIR OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST ON WED. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
AHEAD OF THE COLDER AIR THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW
SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND THE BROOKS
RANGE.

AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD IT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RAINFALL WILL INCREASE AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THERMAL TROUGH AND THERMAL
LOW.

THE NEXT AND MORE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER
THE WEST COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL FRONT WILL
NOT PRODUCE THAT MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST AND THE
ARCTIC COAST IT WILL TAP INTO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IT PRODUCES AS
THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT SHOULD
PRODUCE MORE RAINFALL OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THAN THE FIRST
FRONT. THE WEST COAST GETS SPARED MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEAST BERING SEA TO
THE WESTERN INTERIOR THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD TO BE MAINLY
OVER THE WEST COAST. A THERMAL INDUCED TROUGH IS DEVELOPING TODAY
NEAR THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND THE YUKON
FLATS. THE THERMAL TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN TOMORROW AND
THIS WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
INTERIOR ALASKA ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. PORTIONS OF THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY MAY SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER
THE WEST COAST THROUGH WED NIGHT.

OVERALL...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL AND THIS COULD BE ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE LIGHT FLOW
ALOFT THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU. THOUGH WILL SEE MINIMUM RH
VALUES DROP SUB-30 PERCENT WED IN THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. DECENT
MIXING COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING THERMAL RIDGE AND SUFFICIENT
INSOLATION SHOULD PROMPT RH VALUES THERE TO DECLINE BELOW 30
PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

$$

CF AUG 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 042048 CCA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1249 PM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2015

RESENT DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...RUN TO RUN HAS BEEN GOOD WITH GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
AROUND 48 HOURS THIS RUN. MODELS ARE REALLY HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME FIGURING OUT WHAT TO DO WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE STATE
BEYOND THAT...BUT THERE ARE ALL CONSISTENT IN MOVING IT EAST IS
ONE FORM OR ANOTHER. GFS LOOKS A LITTLE OVER FORECAST WITH THE
PRECIPITATION AS USUAL AND THE ECMWF A LITTLE UNDER FORECAST...SO
WILL LEAN ON THE NAM AND SREF AGAIN TODAY.

ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE ARCTIC THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA
AND BERING STRAIT BY LATE TONIGHT. 524 DAM LOW 400 NM NORTH OF
BANKS ISLAND WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO. THE
TROUGH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND BERING STRAIT WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT CONTINUES TO DIG
SOUTH MERGING WITH A 549 DAM LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND.
THE WHOLE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE THE MARCH EAST TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE ALCAN BORDER
BY FRIDAY MORNING. RIDGING SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY WILL
BE PUSHED OUT AS THE TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE AREA. A 534 DAM LOW
WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE...RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA AND CHUKCHI SEA WITH RIDGING BUILDING EAST OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST. THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE UPPER YUKON FLATS
AND SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN BE
PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AS SURFACE RIDGE IS PUSHED EAST AND TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE FROM
YESTERDAY...RAIN...LOW CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG...AND WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS FRONT HANGS OVER THE AREA.
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL REACH NORTHWEST COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND
PUSH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION A BIT FURTHER SOUTH SO THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE IN AND NEAR THE BROOKS RANGE. COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY...BUT WILL SEE SOME CLEARING THURSDAY AS A HIGH OVER
THE ARCTIC BRINGS SOME OFFSHORE FLOW WEST OF DEADHORSE.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY BUT TURN NORTHERLY BY LATE TODAY BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM
THE LOW CLOUD CEILINGS OF THE LAST FEW DAYS AROUND NORTON SOUND.
THAT DOES NOT MEAN THE END OF IT THOUGH AS THE CHANGE IN WINDS
WILL JUST PUSH THE STRATUS OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTON SOUND COAST
AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. WEST WINDS
BECOMING NORTH...GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH. INLAND AREAS WARMER TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID
60S FOR THE MOST PART. COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE TROUGH PUSHES
SOUTH AND DRAGS SOME COOLER ARCTIC AIR WITH IT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLEARING TODAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
EXPECT SOME CLOUDS OVER AREAS ADJACENT TO THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE
BROOKS RANGE AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE CREST OF THE BROOKS
RANGE TODAY. WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S
THEN COOLING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ALMOST 15
DEGREES COOLER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN
THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY...THEN AS FRONT MOVES TO THE INTERIOR ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL MOVE EAST AND BE OVER THE ALCAN AND
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE FRIDAY.

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PRETTY QUIET AT THE MOMENT...BUT THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY COULD BRING A FEW FIRES BACK TO LIFE. TODAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST AND DRIEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR MANY AREAS SOUTH OF
THE YUKON RIVER. COOLER WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RISING
STARTING WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY COULD
LEAD TO SOME NEW STARTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SOME SLIGHT RISES ON THE GAUGES ON THE ARCTIC
RIVERS...BUT NOT MUCH AND DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO RISE MUCH MORE IF
ANY. NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED IN ANY DRAINAGES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.SATELLITE...STRATUS VISIBLE ON THE SPORT MODIS RGB PRODUCTS AT
04/0707Z ON THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE ARCTIC NORTH OF THE BROOKS
RANGE AND IN THE UPPER KOBUK. SPOTTED A INTERESTING FEATURE ON THE
NPP VIIRS DAY NIGHT BAND PRODUCT AT 04/0029Z JUST NORTHEAST OF ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND THERE IS A LOW LEVEL VORTEX IN THE STRATUS LEAVING
A LITTLE CLEAR HOLE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$

SDB AUG 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 042048 CCA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1249 PM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2015

RESENT DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...RUN TO RUN HAS BEEN GOOD WITH GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
AROUND 48 HOURS THIS RUN. MODELS ARE REALLY HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME FIGURING OUT WHAT TO DO WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE STATE
BEYOND THAT...BUT THERE ARE ALL CONSISTENT IN MOVING IT EAST IS
ONE FORM OR ANOTHER. GFS LOOKS A LITTLE OVER FORECAST WITH THE
PRECIPITATION AS USUAL AND THE ECMWF A LITTLE UNDER FORECAST...SO
WILL LEAN ON THE NAM AND SREF AGAIN TODAY.

ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE ARCTIC THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA
AND BERING STRAIT BY LATE TONIGHT. 524 DAM LOW 400 NM NORTH OF
BANKS ISLAND WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO. THE
TROUGH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND BERING STRAIT WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT CONTINUES TO DIG
SOUTH MERGING WITH A 549 DAM LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND.
THE WHOLE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE THE MARCH EAST TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE ALCAN BORDER
BY FRIDAY MORNING. RIDGING SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY WILL
BE PUSHED OUT AS THE TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE AREA. A 534 DAM LOW
WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE...RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA AND CHUKCHI SEA WITH RIDGING BUILDING EAST OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST. THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE UPPER YUKON FLATS
AND SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN BE
PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AS SURFACE RIDGE IS PUSHED EAST AND TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE FROM
YESTERDAY...RAIN...LOW CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG...AND WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS FRONT HANGS OVER THE AREA.
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL REACH NORTHWEST COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND
PUSH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION A BIT FURTHER SOUTH SO THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE IN AND NEAR THE BROOKS RANGE. COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY...BUT WILL SEE SOME CLEARING THURSDAY AS A HIGH OVER
THE ARCTIC BRINGS SOME OFFSHORE FLOW WEST OF DEADHORSE.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY BUT TURN NORTHERLY BY LATE TODAY BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM
THE LOW CLOUD CEILINGS OF THE LAST FEW DAYS AROUND NORTON SOUND.
THAT DOES NOT MEAN THE END OF IT THOUGH AS THE CHANGE IN WINDS
WILL JUST PUSH THE STRATUS OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTON SOUND COAST
AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. WEST WINDS
BECOMING NORTH...GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH. INLAND AREAS WARMER TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID
60S FOR THE MOST PART. COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE TROUGH PUSHES
SOUTH AND DRAGS SOME COOLER ARCTIC AIR WITH IT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLEARING TODAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
EXPECT SOME CLOUDS OVER AREAS ADJACENT TO THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE
BROOKS RANGE AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE CREST OF THE BROOKS
RANGE TODAY. WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S
THEN COOLING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ALMOST 15
DEGREES COOLER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN
THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY...THEN AS FRONT MOVES TO THE INTERIOR ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL MOVE EAST AND BE OVER THE ALCAN AND
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE FRIDAY.

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PRETTY QUIET AT THE MOMENT...BUT THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY COULD BRING A FEW FIRES BACK TO LIFE. TODAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST AND DRIEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR MANY AREAS SOUTH OF
THE YUKON RIVER. COOLER WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RISING
STARTING WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY COULD
LEAD TO SOME NEW STARTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SOME SLIGHT RISES ON THE GAUGES ON THE ARCTIC
RIVERS...BUT NOT MUCH AND DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO RISE MUCH MORE IF
ANY. NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED IN ANY DRAINAGES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.SATELLITE...STRATUS VISIBLE ON THE SPORT MODIS RGB PRODUCTS AT
04/0707Z ON THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE ARCTIC NORTH OF THE BROOKS
RANGE AND IN THE UPPER KOBUK. SPOTTED A INTERESTING FEATURE ON THE
NPP VIIRS DAY NIGHT BAND PRODUCT AT 04/0029Z JUST NORTHEAST OF ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND THERE IS A LOW LEVEL VORTEX IN THE STRATUS LEAVING
A LITTLE CLEAR HOLE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$

SDB AUG 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 041052
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
252 AM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...RUN TO RUN HAS BEEN GOOD WITH GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
AROUND 48 HOURS THIS RUN. MODELS ARE REALLY HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME FIGURING OUT WHAT TO DO WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE STATE
BEYOND THAT...BUT THERE ARE ALL CONSISTENT IN MOVING IT EAST IS
ONE FORM OR ANOTHER. GFS LOOKS A LITTLE OVER FORECAST WITH THE
PRECIPITATION AS USUAL AND THE ECMWF A LITTLE UNDER FORECAST...SO
WILL LEAN ON THE NAM AND SREF AGAIN TODAY.

ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE ARCTIC THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA
AND BERING STRAIT BY LATE TONIGHT. 524 DAM LOW 400 NM NORTH OF
BANKS ISLAND WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO. THE
TROUGH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND BERING STRAIT WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT CONTINUES TO DIG
SOUTH MERGING WITH A 549 DAM LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND.
THE WHOLE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE THE MARCH EAST TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE ALCAN BORDER
BY FRIDAY MORNING. RIDGING SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY WILL
BE PUSHED OUT AS THE TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE AREA. A 534 DAM LOW
WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE...RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA AND CHUKCHI SEA WITH RIDGING BUILDING EAST OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST. THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE UPPER YUKON FLATS
AND SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN BE
PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AS SURFACE RIDGE IS PUSHED EAST AND TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE FROM
YESTERDAY...RAIN...LOW CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG...AND WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS FRONT HANGS OVER THE AREA.
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL REACH NORTHWEST COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND
PUSH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION A BIT FURTHER SOUTH SO THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE IN AND NEAR THE BROOKS RANGE. COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY...BUT WILL SEE SOME CLEARING THURSDAY AS A HIGH OVER
THE ARCTIC BRINGS SOME OFFSHORE FLOW WEST OF DEADHORSE.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY BUT TURN NORTHERLY BY LATE TODAY BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM
THE LOW CLOUD CEILINGS OF THE LAST FEW DAYS AROUND NORTON SOUND.
THAT DOES NOT MEAN THE END OF IT THOUGH AS THE CHANGE IN WINDS
WILL JUST PUSH THE STRATUS OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTON SOUND COAST
AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. WEST WINDS
BECOMING NORTH...GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH. INLAND AREAS WARMER TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID
60S FOR THE MOST PART. COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE TROUGH PUSHES
SOUTH AND DRAGS SOME COOLER ARCTIC AIR WITH IT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLEARING TODAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
EXPECT SOME CLOUDS OVER AREAS ADJACENT TO THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE
BROOKS RANGE AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE CREST OF THE BROOKS
RANGE TODAY. WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S
THEN COOLING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ALMOST 15
DEGREES COOLER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN
THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY...THEN AS FRONT MOVES TO THE INTERIOR ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL MOVE EAST AND BE OVER THE ALCAN AND
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE FRIDAY.

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PRETTY QUIET AT THE MOMENT...BUT THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY COULD BRING A FEW FIRES BACK TO LIFE. TODAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST AND DRIEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR MANY AREAS SOUTH OF
THE YUKON RIVER. COOLER WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RISING
STARTING WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY COULD
LEAD TO SOME NEW STARTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SOME SLIGHT RISES ON THE GAUGES ON THE ARCTIC
RIVERS...BUT NOT MUCH AND DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO RISE MUCH MORE IF
ANY. NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED IN ANY DRAINAGES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.SATELLITE...STRATUS VISIBLE ON THE SPORT MODIS RGB PRODUCTS AT
04/0707Z ON THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE ARCTIC NORTH OF THE BROOKS
RANGE AND IN THE UPPER KOBUK. SPOTTED A INTERESTING FEATURE ON THE
NPP VIIRS DAY NIGHT BAND PRODUCT AT 04/0029Z JUST NORTHEAST OF ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND THERE IS A LOW LEVEL VORTEX IN THE STRATUS LEAVING
A LITTLE CLEAR HOLE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$

SDB AUG 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 041052
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
252 AM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...RUN TO RUN HAS BEEN GOOD WITH GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
AROUND 48 HOURS THIS RUN. MODELS ARE REALLY HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME FIGURING OUT WHAT TO DO WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE STATE
BEYOND THAT...BUT THERE ARE ALL CONSISTENT IN MOVING IT EAST IS
ONE FORM OR ANOTHER. GFS LOOKS A LITTLE OVER FORECAST WITH THE
PRECIPITATION AS USUAL AND THE ECMWF A LITTLE UNDER FORECAST...SO
WILL LEAN ON THE NAM AND SREF AGAIN TODAY.

ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE ARCTIC THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA
AND BERING STRAIT BY LATE TONIGHT. 524 DAM LOW 400 NM NORTH OF
BANKS ISLAND WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO. THE
TROUGH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND BERING STRAIT WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT CONTINUES TO DIG
SOUTH MERGING WITH A 549 DAM LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND.
THE WHOLE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE THE MARCH EAST TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE ALCAN BORDER
BY FRIDAY MORNING. RIDGING SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY WILL
BE PUSHED OUT AS THE TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE AREA. A 534 DAM LOW
WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE...RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA AND CHUKCHI SEA WITH RIDGING BUILDING EAST OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST. THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE UPPER YUKON FLATS
AND SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN BE
PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AS SURFACE RIDGE IS PUSHED EAST AND TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE FROM
YESTERDAY...RAIN...LOW CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG...AND WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS FRONT HANGS OVER THE AREA.
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL REACH NORTHWEST COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND
PUSH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION A BIT FURTHER SOUTH SO THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE IN AND NEAR THE BROOKS RANGE. COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY...BUT WILL SEE SOME CLEARING THURSDAY AS A HIGH OVER
THE ARCTIC BRINGS SOME OFFSHORE FLOW WEST OF DEADHORSE.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY BUT TURN NORTHERLY BY LATE TODAY BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM
THE LOW CLOUD CEILINGS OF THE LAST FEW DAYS AROUND NORTON SOUND.
THAT DOES NOT MEAN THE END OF IT THOUGH AS THE CHANGE IN WINDS
WILL JUST PUSH THE STRATUS OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTON SOUND COAST
AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. WEST WINDS
BECOMING NORTH...GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH. INLAND AREAS WARMER TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID
60S FOR THE MOST PART. COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE TROUGH PUSHES
SOUTH AND DRAGS SOME COOLER ARCTIC AIR WITH IT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLEARING TODAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
EXPECT SOME CLOUDS OVER AREAS ADJACENT TO THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE
BROOKS RANGE AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE CREST OF THE BROOKS
RANGE TODAY. WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S
THEN COOLING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ALMOST 15
DEGREES COOLER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN
THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY...THEN AS FRONT MOVES TO THE INTERIOR ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL MOVE EAST AND BE OVER THE ALCAN AND
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE FRIDAY.

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PRETTY QUIET AT THE MOMENT...BUT THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY COULD BRING A FEW FIRES BACK TO LIFE. TODAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST AND DRIEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR MANY AREAS SOUTH OF
THE YUKON RIVER. COOLER WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RISING
STARTING WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY COULD
LEAD TO SOME NEW STARTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SOME SLIGHT RISES ON THE GAUGES ON THE ARCTIC
RIVERS...BUT NOT MUCH AND DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO RISE MUCH MORE IF
ANY. NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED IN ANY DRAINAGES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.SATELLITE...STRATUS VISIBLE ON THE SPORT MODIS RGB PRODUCTS AT
04/0707Z ON THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE ARCTIC NORTH OF THE BROOKS
RANGE AND IN THE UPPER KOBUK. SPOTTED A INTERESTING FEATURE ON THE
NPP VIIRS DAY NIGHT BAND PRODUCT AT 04/0029Z JUST NORTHEAST OF ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND THERE IS A LOW LEVEL VORTEX IN THE STRATUS LEAVING
A LITTLE CLEAR HOLE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$

SDB AUG 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 032125
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
125 PM AKDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL LOW
IN THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO WITH TRAILING LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT IS
EXTENDING DOWN TO JUST NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA. THIS
IS CAUSING STRONG UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW OVER THE ARCTIC COAST
WHICH HAS ADVECTED IN DECENT AMOUNTS OF QPF. QPF AMOUNTS NEARING A
HALF AN INCH IN MANY AREAS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE AS SUSPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST HAVE SUBSIDED WITH THE
GRADIENT BEING DEFLECTED NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST ASSISTED WITH
THE FAST MOVING SURFACE LOW PUSHING EAST NORTH OF THE ARCTIC
COAST.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED TO BUILD IN OVER THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS APPEARS TO BE STARTING TO
BUILD. IT IS ADVERTISED TO BE A 579 HIGH AT 500H WHICH IS VERY
SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH SUPPLY
DECENT COLD ADVECTION TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST
TUE AND THEN SPREADING EAST TO THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST ON WED.
THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION BAND WILL LEAD THE COLD AIR. THIS
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL GENERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND PRODUCE UPSLOPE
RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE ON TUE NIGHT
AND WED. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND THE OCCLUDED
FRONT WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE
ON WED AS IT PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EASTWARD.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL
INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THE RH VALUES THROUGH TUE
BEFORE THE OCCLUDED FRONT SPREADS RAINFALL THROUGH THE AREA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SHOULD SEE OVERALL RH VALUES ABOVE 40
PERCENT AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN TO PROVIDE MARITIME AIR
OVER THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE AT THIS TIME.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

CF AUG 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 031018
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
218 AM AKDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 60 HOURS BEFORE MODELS
DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
INTERIOR. GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ON THE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH
OF THE BROOKS RANGE TO AROUND 577 DAM. FAST TRACKING ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE ARCTIC HAS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE THE CORRECT
TIMING FOR THEM SO WILL USE THE NAM AND SREF PRIMARILY FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND THE GFS FOR AMOUNTS.

ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF TROUGH OVER THE ARCTIC THAT
HAS A 526 DAM LOW 200NM NORTHWEST OF BANKS ISLAND CANADA AND A
542 DAM LOW 200 NM NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND. THE ZONAL FLOW REMAINS
IN PLACE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY WHEN A TROUGH STARTS DIGGING SOUTH
OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY TO THE CENTRAL
BROOKS RANGE WITH A 555 DAM LOW OVER ANAKTUVUK PASS WITH THE
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH TO A 552 DAM LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND. RIDGING SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AS THE 579 DAM HIGH OVER ST MICHAEL MOVES EAST OVER
ANVIK THIS AFTERNOON...AND OVER LAKE MINCHUMINA BY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WEST TO A 577 DAM HIGH OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA AND AT 574 DAM HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES.

SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND A 1006 MB LOW 300 NM
NORTH OF DEADHORSE OVER THE ARCTIC TODAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING EAST FROM A 1028 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA TO A 1021 MB HIGH OVER DELTA JUNCTION THIS MORNING. THERMAL
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER
THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY. A FRONT WILL LIE WEST TO EAST OVER THE
ARCTIC WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
RAIN TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RIDGING WILL
BUILD NORTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA TUESDAY THEN EAST OVER THE ARCTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...RAIN...LOW CLOUDS...AREAS OF
FOG...AND GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL AREAS
TODAY WITH IT LETTING UP A BIT TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WEATHER FRONT LIES WEST TO EAST OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW SHOWERS IN THE BROOKS RANGE. ANOTHER SHOT
OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC INCLUDING THE BROOKS RANGE TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY. AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH A
BIT THE WINDS OVER THE COAST AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST BY LATE TUESDAY.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...ONSHORE FLOW IN THE COASTAL
AREAS WILL BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG...AND SOME
DRIZZLE AT TIMES...TO THE BERING STRAIT AND AREAS SOUTH. INLAND
AREAS AND AREAS NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT WILL BE CLEARING TO
PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS GENERALLY WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH LIGHT
WINDS INLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING WITH
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MOST AREAS IN THE 70S TODAY WITH
QUITE A FEW AREAS REACHING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY.

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACTED THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE AND IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN THE INTERIOR WILL BE MUCH
DRIER AND WARMER...SO THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE
FIRES TO MAKE A COMEBACK. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MID WEEK THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME NEW STARTS IN THE
INTERIOR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SOME GOOD RAINS EXPECTED OVER THE ARCTIC...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ENOUGH TO CREATE ANY PROBLEMS IN ANY OF THE DRAINAGES.

&&

.SATELLITE...NOT ABLE TO SEE MUCH OVER THE ARCTIC ON THE SPORT
MODIS RGB PRODUCTS AT 03/0802Z AS HIGH CLOUDS MASK THE AREA...BUT
THE GOES MVFR/IFR SHOWING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER MOST OF THE
COASTAL AREAS. SPORT MODIS NIGHTTIME AND 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS RGB
PRODUCTS AT 03/0802Z SHOWING LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG OVER
THE CHUKCHI SEA AND SOUTH THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT AND OVER
NORTON SOUTH AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA. SPORT MODIS 24 HOUR
MICROPHYSICS SHOWS LARGE AREA OF STRATUS OVER THE INTERIOR
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE TO THE ALASKA
RANGE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB AUG 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 031018
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
218 AM AKDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 60 HOURS BEFORE MODELS
DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
INTERIOR. GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ON THE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH
OF THE BROOKS RANGE TO AROUND 577 DAM. FAST TRACKING ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE ARCTIC HAS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE THE CORRECT
TIMING FOR THEM SO WILL USE THE NAM AND SREF PRIMARILY FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND THE GFS FOR AMOUNTS.

ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF TROUGH OVER THE ARCTIC THAT
HAS A 526 DAM LOW 200NM NORTHWEST OF BANKS ISLAND CANADA AND A
542 DAM LOW 200 NM NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND. THE ZONAL FLOW REMAINS
IN PLACE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY WHEN A TROUGH STARTS DIGGING SOUTH
OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY TO THE CENTRAL
BROOKS RANGE WITH A 555 DAM LOW OVER ANAKTUVUK PASS WITH THE
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH TO A 552 DAM LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND. RIDGING SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AS THE 579 DAM HIGH OVER ST MICHAEL MOVES EAST OVER
ANVIK THIS AFTERNOON...AND OVER LAKE MINCHUMINA BY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WEST TO A 577 DAM HIGH OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA AND AT 574 DAM HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES.

SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND A 1006 MB LOW 300 NM
NORTH OF DEADHORSE OVER THE ARCTIC TODAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING EAST FROM A 1028 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA TO A 1021 MB HIGH OVER DELTA JUNCTION THIS MORNING. THERMAL
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER
THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY. A FRONT WILL LIE WEST TO EAST OVER THE
ARCTIC WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
RAIN TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RIDGING WILL
BUILD NORTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA TUESDAY THEN EAST OVER THE ARCTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...RAIN...LOW CLOUDS...AREAS OF
FOG...AND GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL AREAS
TODAY WITH IT LETTING UP A BIT TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WEATHER FRONT LIES WEST TO EAST OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW SHOWERS IN THE BROOKS RANGE. ANOTHER SHOT
OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC INCLUDING THE BROOKS RANGE TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY. AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH A
BIT THE WINDS OVER THE COAST AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST BY LATE TUESDAY.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...ONSHORE FLOW IN THE COASTAL
AREAS WILL BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG...AND SOME
DRIZZLE AT TIMES...TO THE BERING STRAIT AND AREAS SOUTH. INLAND
AREAS AND AREAS NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT WILL BE CLEARING TO
PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS GENERALLY WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH LIGHT
WINDS INLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING WITH
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MOST AREAS IN THE 70S TODAY WITH
QUITE A FEW AREAS REACHING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY.

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACTED THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE AND IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN THE INTERIOR WILL BE MUCH
DRIER AND WARMER...SO THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE
FIRES TO MAKE A COMEBACK. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MID WEEK THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME NEW STARTS IN THE
INTERIOR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SOME GOOD RAINS EXPECTED OVER THE ARCTIC...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ENOUGH TO CREATE ANY PROBLEMS IN ANY OF THE DRAINAGES.

&&

.SATELLITE...NOT ABLE TO SEE MUCH OVER THE ARCTIC ON THE SPORT
MODIS RGB PRODUCTS AT 03/0802Z AS HIGH CLOUDS MASK THE AREA...BUT
THE GOES MVFR/IFR SHOWING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER MOST OF THE
COASTAL AREAS. SPORT MODIS NIGHTTIME AND 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS RGB
PRODUCTS AT 03/0802Z SHOWING LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG OVER
THE CHUKCHI SEA AND SOUTH THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT AND OVER
NORTON SOUTH AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA. SPORT MODIS 24 HOUR
MICROPHYSICS SHOWS LARGE AREA OF STRATUS OVER THE INTERIOR
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE TO THE ALASKA
RANGE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB AUG 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 022341
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
341 PM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS. MODERATELY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW 500 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT WITH
SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING BEHIND TO MOVE PRECIPITATION ONSHORE
OF THE ARCTIC COAST THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL SKIM THE ARCTIC COAST BEFORE THE
LAGGING REAR PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT ON THE WESTERN AREA SAGS
SOUTH AND SPREADS THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND TO
THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

THE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA MON NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL SEND SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR DOWN THE WEST
COAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE DEEPENS OVER THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR THROUGH THE
INTERIOR AS IT PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD.

MID RANGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW POISED TO DROP
SOUTHWARD OVER THE BERING STRAIT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER WESTERN CANADA THAT WILL
ALLOW A CUTOFF LOW TO MOVE NORTHWARD IN THE CIRCULATION OF THE
RIDGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. NORTH WINDS OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME WAVE ACTION BUT
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE ANY TYPE OF HAZARD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE HIGH RH VALUES OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR HAVE
ASSISTED WITH FIRE SUPPRESSION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEK. SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES EAST
BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURS AND SPREADS MORE RAINFALL OVER
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY ON NIGHT AND TUE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE AT THIS TIME. APPROXIMATELY ONE HALF INCH OF
RAIN MAY FALL ON THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE BUT SHOULD
NOT CREATE ANY ISSUES AS THIS TIME.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CF AUG 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 022341
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
341 PM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS. MODERATELY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW 500 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT WITH
SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING BEHIND TO MOVE PRECIPITATION ONSHORE
OF THE ARCTIC COAST THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL SKIM THE ARCTIC COAST BEFORE THE
LAGGING REAR PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT ON THE WESTERN AREA SAGS
SOUTH AND SPREADS THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND TO
THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

THE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA MON NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL SEND SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR DOWN THE WEST
COAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE DEEPENS OVER THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR THROUGH THE
INTERIOR AS IT PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD.

MID RANGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW POISED TO DROP
SOUTHWARD OVER THE BERING STRAIT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER WESTERN CANADA THAT WILL
ALLOW A CUTOFF LOW TO MOVE NORTHWARD IN THE CIRCULATION OF THE
RIDGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. NORTH WINDS OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME WAVE ACTION BUT
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE ANY TYPE OF HAZARD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE HIGH RH VALUES OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR HAVE
ASSISTED WITH FIRE SUPPRESSION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEK. SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES EAST
BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURS AND SPREADS MORE RAINFALL OVER
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY ON NIGHT AND TUE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE AT THIS TIME. APPROXIMATELY ONE HALF INCH OF
RAIN MAY FALL ON THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE BUT SHOULD
NOT CREATE ANY ISSUES AS THIS TIME.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CF AUG 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 021214
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
414 AM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER NW CANADA WILL MOVE EAST AS THE LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA BUILDS EAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST INTO TUE THEN RETROGRADE
THROUGH THE WEEK AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DROP FROM THE
ARCTIC SOUTH OVER WESTERN ALASKA. SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE THIS
WILL CAUSE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH TUE FOLLOWED BY A
WETTER AND COOLER TREND IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. FROM THE
BROOKS RANGE NORTH THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES MOVING RAPIDLY EAST OVER THROUGH THE WEEK BRINGING PERIODS
OF RAIN.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM EAGLE TO TOK WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ALCAN
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH THE TROUGH WILL BECOME
ISOLATED WEST OF THE TROUGH.

A SECOND AND WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT LIES FROM ATIGUN PASS
TO ANVIK WILL MOVE TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO MCGRATH BY 4PM MON...AND
THEN DISSIPATE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED EAST OF THIS TROUGH WITH DECREASING CLOUDS TO THE WEST.

SURFACE...
A 1002 MB LOW NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 200 NM WEST OF
BARROW BY 4PM SUN...TO 80 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY AS A 1006 MB LOW
BY 4AM MON...AND TO BANKS ISLAND AS A 1006 MB LOW BY 4PM MON.
A WARM FRONT FROM CAPE LISBURNE TO THE LOW WILL MOVE TO PRUDHOE
BAY TO BARROW TO THE LOW BY 4PM SUN...AND FROM INUVIK TO THE LOW
BY 4AM MON. EXPECT .25-.50 INCH OF RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
ARCTIC COAST WITH THE WARM FRONT. EXPECT SW WINDS 20-30KT JUST
SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER DIMINISHING TO WEST 20 KT SW OF THE LOW
CENTER.

A SECOND LOW LOW MOVING TO NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND BY 4AM
MON...WILL MOVE TO 300 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW AS A 1006 MB LOW BY
4PM MON...AND TO 300 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY AS A 1008 MB LOW BY
4AM TUE...AND TO BANKS ISLAND BY 4PM TUE. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING
SW FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE LOW TO JUST NORTH OF BARROW TO
POINT HOPE BY 4AM MON...AND TO JUST NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND TO
NUIQSUT TO POINT LAY BY 4AM TUE...AND TO BARTER ISLAND TO POINT
HOPE BY 4PM TUE. WILL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WITH THE COLD
FRONT. WILL SEE WEST WINDS 20 KT WITH AND FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONT.

A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA WITH A RIDGE
STRETCHING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MON. THIS WILL CAUSE STRATUS AND FOG ALONG WITH WEST WINDS TO
PERSIST OVER THE BERING SEA AND WEST COAST OF ALASKA THROUGH MON.

A BROAD THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 4AM MON. AFTER THAT TIME
THE GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE NAM AND ECMF WITH THE MOVEMENT OF A LOW
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEAS. PREFER THE
SLOWER GFS SOLUTION.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
SEA LEVEL FROM BARROW WEST WILL RISE ONE FT WITH MODERATE SURF SUN
NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. ONLY MINOR BEACH EROSION WITH THIS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40% TODAY...ABOVE 30% MON...AND NEAR 30% TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. NO FLOODING EXPECTED.
EXPECT.25-.50 INCH OF RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST
WITH THE WARM FRONT TODAY.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

JB AUG 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 021214
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
414 AM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER NW CANADA WILL MOVE EAST AS THE LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA BUILDS EAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST INTO TUE THEN RETROGRADE
THROUGH THE WEEK AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DROP FROM THE
ARCTIC SOUTH OVER WESTERN ALASKA. SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE THIS
WILL CAUSE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH TUE FOLLOWED BY A
WETTER AND COOLER TREND IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. FROM THE
BROOKS RANGE NORTH THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES MOVING RAPIDLY EAST OVER THROUGH THE WEEK BRINGING PERIODS
OF RAIN.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM EAGLE TO TOK WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ALCAN
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH THE TROUGH WILL BECOME
ISOLATED WEST OF THE TROUGH.

A SECOND AND WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT LIES FROM ATIGUN PASS
TO ANVIK WILL MOVE TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO MCGRATH BY 4PM MON...AND
THEN DISSIPATE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED EAST OF THIS TROUGH WITH DECREASING CLOUDS TO THE WEST.

SURFACE...
A 1002 MB LOW NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 200 NM WEST OF
BARROW BY 4PM SUN...TO 80 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY AS A 1006 MB LOW
BY 4AM MON...AND TO BANKS ISLAND AS A 1006 MB LOW BY 4PM MON.
A WARM FRONT FROM CAPE LISBURNE TO THE LOW WILL MOVE TO PRUDHOE
BAY TO BARROW TO THE LOW BY 4PM SUN...AND FROM INUVIK TO THE LOW
BY 4AM MON. EXPECT .25-.50 INCH OF RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
ARCTIC COAST WITH THE WARM FRONT. EXPECT SW WINDS 20-30KT JUST
SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER DIMINISHING TO WEST 20 KT SW OF THE LOW
CENTER.

A SECOND LOW LOW MOVING TO NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND BY 4AM
MON...WILL MOVE TO 300 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW AS A 1006 MB LOW BY
4PM MON...AND TO 300 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY AS A 1008 MB LOW BY
4AM TUE...AND TO BANKS ISLAND BY 4PM TUE. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING
SW FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE LOW TO JUST NORTH OF BARROW TO
POINT HOPE BY 4AM MON...AND TO JUST NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND TO
NUIQSUT TO POINT LAY BY 4AM TUE...AND TO BARTER ISLAND TO POINT
HOPE BY 4PM TUE. WILL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WITH THE COLD
FRONT. WILL SEE WEST WINDS 20 KT WITH AND FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONT.

A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA WITH A RIDGE
STRETCHING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MON. THIS WILL CAUSE STRATUS AND FOG ALONG WITH WEST WINDS TO
PERSIST OVER THE BERING SEA AND WEST COAST OF ALASKA THROUGH MON.

A BROAD THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 4AM MON. AFTER THAT TIME
THE GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE NAM AND ECMF WITH THE MOVEMENT OF A LOW
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEAS. PREFER THE
SLOWER GFS SOLUTION.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
SEA LEVEL FROM BARROW WEST WILL RISE ONE FT WITH MODERATE SURF SUN
NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. ONLY MINOR BEACH EROSION WITH THIS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40% TODAY...ABOVE 30% MON...AND NEAR 30% TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. NO FLOODING EXPECTED.
EXPECT.25-.50 INCH OF RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST
WITH THE WARM FRONT TODAY.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

JB AUG 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 021214
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
414 AM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER NW CANADA WILL MOVE EAST AS THE LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA BUILDS EAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST INTO TUE THEN RETROGRADE
THROUGH THE WEEK AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DROP FROM THE
ARCTIC SOUTH OVER WESTERN ALASKA. SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE THIS
WILL CAUSE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH TUE FOLLOWED BY A
WETTER AND COOLER TREND IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. FROM THE
BROOKS RANGE NORTH THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES MOVING RAPIDLY EAST OVER THROUGH THE WEEK BRINGING PERIODS
OF RAIN.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM EAGLE TO TOK WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ALCAN
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH THE TROUGH WILL BECOME
ISOLATED WEST OF THE TROUGH.

A SECOND AND WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT LIES FROM ATIGUN PASS
TO ANVIK WILL MOVE TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO MCGRATH BY 4PM MON...AND
THEN DISSIPATE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED EAST OF THIS TROUGH WITH DECREASING CLOUDS TO THE WEST.

SURFACE...
A 1002 MB LOW NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 200 NM WEST OF
BARROW BY 4PM SUN...TO 80 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY AS A 1006 MB LOW
BY 4AM MON...AND TO BANKS ISLAND AS A 1006 MB LOW BY 4PM MON.
A WARM FRONT FROM CAPE LISBURNE TO THE LOW WILL MOVE TO PRUDHOE
BAY TO BARROW TO THE LOW BY 4PM SUN...AND FROM INUVIK TO THE LOW
BY 4AM MON. EXPECT .25-.50 INCH OF RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
ARCTIC COAST WITH THE WARM FRONT. EXPECT SW WINDS 20-30KT JUST
SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER DIMINISHING TO WEST 20 KT SW OF THE LOW
CENTER.

A SECOND LOW LOW MOVING TO NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND BY 4AM
MON...WILL MOVE TO 300 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW AS A 1006 MB LOW BY
4PM MON...AND TO 300 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY AS A 1008 MB LOW BY
4AM TUE...AND TO BANKS ISLAND BY 4PM TUE. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING
SW FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE LOW TO JUST NORTH OF BARROW TO
POINT HOPE BY 4AM MON...AND TO JUST NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND TO
NUIQSUT TO POINT LAY BY 4AM TUE...AND TO BARTER ISLAND TO POINT
HOPE BY 4PM TUE. WILL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WITH THE COLD
FRONT. WILL SEE WEST WINDS 20 KT WITH AND FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONT.

A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA WITH A RIDGE
STRETCHING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MON. THIS WILL CAUSE STRATUS AND FOG ALONG WITH WEST WINDS TO
PERSIST OVER THE BERING SEA AND WEST COAST OF ALASKA THROUGH MON.

A BROAD THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 4AM MON. AFTER THAT TIME
THE GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE NAM AND ECMF WITH THE MOVEMENT OF A LOW
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEAS. PREFER THE
SLOWER GFS SOLUTION.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
SEA LEVEL FROM BARROW WEST WILL RISE ONE FT WITH MODERATE SURF SUN
NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. ONLY MINOR BEACH EROSION WITH THIS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40% TODAY...ABOVE 30% MON...AND NEAR 30% TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. NO FLOODING EXPECTED.
EXPECT.25-.50 INCH OF RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST
WITH THE WARM FRONT TODAY.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

JB AUG 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 021214
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
414 AM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER NW CANADA WILL MOVE EAST AS THE LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA BUILDS EAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST INTO TUE THEN RETROGRADE
THROUGH THE WEEK AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DROP FROM THE
ARCTIC SOUTH OVER WESTERN ALASKA. SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE THIS
WILL CAUSE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH TUE FOLLOWED BY A
WETTER AND COOLER TREND IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. FROM THE
BROOKS RANGE NORTH THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES MOVING RAPIDLY EAST OVER THROUGH THE WEEK BRINGING PERIODS
OF RAIN.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM EAGLE TO TOK WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ALCAN
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH THE TROUGH WILL BECOME
ISOLATED WEST OF THE TROUGH.

A SECOND AND WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT LIES FROM ATIGUN PASS
TO ANVIK WILL MOVE TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO MCGRATH BY 4PM MON...AND
THEN DISSIPATE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED EAST OF THIS TROUGH WITH DECREASING CLOUDS TO THE WEST.

SURFACE...
A 1002 MB LOW NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 200 NM WEST OF
BARROW BY 4PM SUN...TO 80 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY AS A 1006 MB LOW
BY 4AM MON...AND TO BANKS ISLAND AS A 1006 MB LOW BY 4PM MON.
A WARM FRONT FROM CAPE LISBURNE TO THE LOW WILL MOVE TO PRUDHOE
BAY TO BARROW TO THE LOW BY 4PM SUN...AND FROM INUVIK TO THE LOW
BY 4AM MON. EXPECT .25-.50 INCH OF RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
ARCTIC COAST WITH THE WARM FRONT. EXPECT SW WINDS 20-30KT JUST
SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER DIMINISHING TO WEST 20 KT SW OF THE LOW
CENTER.

A SECOND LOW LOW MOVING TO NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND BY 4AM
MON...WILL MOVE TO 300 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW AS A 1006 MB LOW BY
4PM MON...AND TO 300 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY AS A 1008 MB LOW BY
4AM TUE...AND TO BANKS ISLAND BY 4PM TUE. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING
SW FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE LOW TO JUST NORTH OF BARROW TO
POINT HOPE BY 4AM MON...AND TO JUST NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND TO
NUIQSUT TO POINT LAY BY 4AM TUE...AND TO BARTER ISLAND TO POINT
HOPE BY 4PM TUE. WILL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WITH THE COLD
FRONT. WILL SEE WEST WINDS 20 KT WITH AND FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONT.

A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA WITH A RIDGE
STRETCHING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MON. THIS WILL CAUSE STRATUS AND FOG ALONG WITH WEST WINDS TO
PERSIST OVER THE BERING SEA AND WEST COAST OF ALASKA THROUGH MON.

A BROAD THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 4AM MON. AFTER THAT TIME
THE GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE NAM AND ECMF WITH THE MOVEMENT OF A LOW
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEAS. PREFER THE
SLOWER GFS SOLUTION.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
SEA LEVEL FROM BARROW WEST WILL RISE ONE FT WITH MODERATE SURF SUN
NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. ONLY MINOR BEACH EROSION WITH THIS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40% TODAY...ABOVE 30% MON...AND NEAR 30% TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. NO FLOODING EXPECTED.
EXPECT.25-.50 INCH OF RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST
WITH THE WARM FRONT TODAY.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

JB AUG 15




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities