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000
FXAK69 PAFG 290103
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
403 PM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 998 MB LOW OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST AND
WEAKEN...DISSIPATING OVER THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS DIFFUSE AND MAINLY
ALOFT FROM ABOUT BARROW TO DELTA...THEN SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA AND SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE FRONT IS
BEING REACTIVATED BY A MOVING UP FROM THE GULF THOUGH. EXPECT THE
SNOW PRESENTLY OVER ZONES 227 AND 152 TO SPREAD NORTHEAST...GIVING
THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR A SHOT SAT THROUGH SUN.

A STRONGER LOW...PRESENTLY OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN ABOUT 800
MILES SOUTH OF SHEMYA...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST...INTO THE BERING SEA
BETWEEN ADAK AND SHEMYA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND BE ABOUT 982 MB 200
MILES SOUTH OF CAPE NAVARIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER OUR WEST
COAST ZONES FROM 211 SOUTH WILL BE INCREASING AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. NOT A LOT OF PRECIPITATION FROM THIS ONE...BUT MAYBE
SOME ISSUES WITH FREEZING RAIN AGAIN...AT LEAST IN ZONES 214-15.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA AND THE NORTHERN
CHUKCHI SEA WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK WEATHER FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE
NORTHERN BEAUFORT SEA. ON SUNDAY...THE WEATHER FRONT WILL STILL BE
WELL OFFSHORE...AND THE RIDGE WILL LIE INLAND OVER THE ARCTIC
SLOPE AND WESTWARD TO NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY COLDER ON THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST...DESPITE THE FACT THAT WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ220.
&&

$$

DJH NOV 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 280024
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
324 PM AKST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 988 MB LOW WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND WILL WEAKEN TO 998 MB AS
IT MOVES NORTH TO LIE OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA ON SATURDAY. THE
WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BEEN MUCH OF
A PRECIPITATION PRODUCER SO FAR...THOUGH WE STILL HAVE SOME
CONCERNS ABOUT FREEZING RAIN IN ZONES 211 AND 213. THE MODELS
AGREE IN MOVING IT INLAND...EVENTUALLY BRINGING AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF SNOW EVEN TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THE MAIN TROUGH ALOFT...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT LOW ALOFT OVER THE BERING SEA...IS
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL KEEP IT ACTIVE...AT LEAST
AFTER A FASHION.

ANOTHER LOW...ABOUT 980 MB...WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE
PACIFIC INTO THE BERING SEA WEST OF ADAK SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
ONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CYCLONICALLY NORTHWEST...WEST...AND
SOUTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA...NEVER GETTING MUCH NORTH
OF 60N...THOUGH THE WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME MORE PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST COAST ZONES
BEGINNING SUNDAY...AND INTO THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY.

THE RIDGE OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA AND THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA
WILL PERSIST.


 THE RIDGE OVER THE
BEAUFORT SEA AN



COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215.
&&

$$

DJH NOV 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 280024
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
324 PM AKST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 988 MB LOW WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND WILL WEAKEN TO 998 MB AS
IT MOVES NORTH TO LIE OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA ON SATURDAY. THE
WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BEEN MUCH OF
A PRECIPITATION PRODUCER SO FAR...THOUGH WE STILL HAVE SOME
CONCERNS ABOUT FREEZING RAIN IN ZONES 211 AND 213. THE MODELS
AGREE IN MOVING IT INLAND...EVENTUALLY BRINGING AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF SNOW EVEN TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THE MAIN TROUGH ALOFT...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT LOW ALOFT OVER THE BERING SEA...IS
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL KEEP IT ACTIVE...AT LEAST
AFTER A FASHION.

ANOTHER LOW...ABOUT 980 MB...WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE
PACIFIC INTO THE BERING SEA WEST OF ADAK SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
ONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CYCLONICALLY NORTHWEST...WEST...AND
SOUTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA...NEVER GETTING MUCH NORTH
OF 60N...THOUGH THE WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME MORE PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST COAST ZONES
BEGINNING SUNDAY...AND INTO THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY.

THE RIDGE OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA AND THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA
WILL PERSIST.


 THE RIDGE OVER THE
BEAUFORT SEA AN



COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215.
&&

$$

DJH NOV 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 262319
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
219 PM AKST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGE
AXIS FROM KODIAK TO WELL NORTH OF POINT LAY WILL SHIFT EAST AND
BUILD. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA TO BARROW THEN WEST TO NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND. THE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SATURDAY AND AS A TROUGH BEGINS
WORKING ITS WAY EAST INTO THE SOUTH INTERIOR. MULTIPLE LOW
PRESSURES OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL TRANSITION INTO A
SINGLE 514DM LOW WEST OF THE PRIBILOFS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE GULF OF ANADYR AND WEAKEN TO 521DM WITH
TROUGH EXTENDING TO SOUTH OF COLD BAY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW
WEAKENS...THE TROUGH WILL BREAK AWAY AND MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

SURFACE...A 982 MB LOW 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL WILL MOVE TO
300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WEAKENING
TO 986 MB. THE LOW WILL BE 998 MB 200 MILES WEST OF GAMBELL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE BERING
STRAIT AND NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH CHUKCHI SEA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS NORTON SOUND
AND THE BERING STRAIT THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA TO THE NORTHWEST
ARCTIC OCEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...AREAS OF FOG...FLURRIES AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE COLDER AIRMASS FROM THE
NORTHEAST ENTERING THE PICTURE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

WEST COAST...WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE WEST
COAST AREA. AS LOW PRESSURES CONTINUE TO SPAWN AND MOVE NORTH OVER
THE CENTRAL TO EAST BERING SEA THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
STRONG WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE AREA AND IN PARTICULAR FOR THE SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND WATERS. GALE WINDS FOR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND
WATERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS FOR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND LOWS TO THE WEST CONTINUE TO
BRING WAVES NORTH OVER THE AREA. FORECAST CONTINUES WITH A CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE NEXT FEW PERIODS FOR ZONES 213 AND 214 AS
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE HOVER IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE
REST OF THE WEST COAST ZONES WILL HAVE MAINLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

INTERIOR...SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR WILL END LATE
TONIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS. LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER IN VALLEY FLOORS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN FROM THE
WEST ON SATURDAY AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH INTERIOR AND
ALASKA RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE 1 TO
2 INCH RANGE...EXCEPT SOME POSSIBLE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE ALASKA
RANGE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

DA NOV 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 262319
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
219 PM AKST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGE
AXIS FROM KODIAK TO WELL NORTH OF POINT LAY WILL SHIFT EAST AND
BUILD. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA TO BARROW THEN WEST TO NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND. THE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SATURDAY AND AS A TROUGH BEGINS
WORKING ITS WAY EAST INTO THE SOUTH INTERIOR. MULTIPLE LOW
PRESSURES OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL TRANSITION INTO A
SINGLE 514DM LOW WEST OF THE PRIBILOFS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE GULF OF ANADYR AND WEAKEN TO 521DM WITH
TROUGH EXTENDING TO SOUTH OF COLD BAY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW
WEAKENS...THE TROUGH WILL BREAK AWAY AND MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

SURFACE...A 982 MB LOW 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL WILL MOVE TO
300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WEAKENING
TO 986 MB. THE LOW WILL BE 998 MB 200 MILES WEST OF GAMBELL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE BERING
STRAIT AND NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH CHUKCHI SEA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS NORTON SOUND
AND THE BERING STRAIT THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA TO THE NORTHWEST
ARCTIC OCEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...AREAS OF FOG...FLURRIES AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE COLDER AIRMASS FROM THE
NORTHEAST ENTERING THE PICTURE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

WEST COAST...WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE WEST
COAST AREA. AS LOW PRESSURES CONTINUE TO SPAWN AND MOVE NORTH OVER
THE CENTRAL TO EAST BERING SEA THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
STRONG WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE AREA AND IN PARTICULAR FOR THE SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND WATERS. GALE WINDS FOR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND
WATERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS FOR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND LOWS TO THE WEST CONTINUE TO
BRING WAVES NORTH OVER THE AREA. FORECAST CONTINUES WITH A CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE NEXT FEW PERIODS FOR ZONES 213 AND 214 AS
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE HOVER IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE
REST OF THE WEST COAST ZONES WILL HAVE MAINLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

INTERIOR...SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR WILL END LATE
TONIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS. LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER IN VALLEY FLOORS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN FROM THE
WEST ON SATURDAY AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH INTERIOR AND
ALASKA RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE 1 TO
2 INCH RANGE...EXCEPT SOME POSSIBLE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE ALASKA
RANGE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

DA NOV 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 261310
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
410 AM AKST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD...RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE
WESTERN BEAUFORT SEA TO THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD
BY LATE THU NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN
BY SAT AFTERNOON. A NEW RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA AND THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BY SUN AFTERNOON.
IN THE SHORT TERM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE BERING SEA TODAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA THU AND THU EVENING.

SURFACE...
A 992 MB LOW 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL MOVE
TO 400 MILES WEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH 250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE
NAVARIN BY LATE TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE BERING SEA TODAY. A 980 MB LOW 299 MILES SOUTH OF
SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 100 MILES WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND BY THU
AFTERNOON WEAKENING TO 987 MB. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA THU AND THU EVENING.

THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN
WEST COAST AREAS. TEMPERATURES AT 900 AND 950 MB WILL BE NEAR TO A
LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING OVER ZONES 213 AND 214 THIS MORNING...AND
NEAR FREEZING OVER OVER ZONES 211-212-WESTERN ZONE 215 THIS
MORNING. WILL ALLOW THE ONGOING FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES FOR
ZONES 213-214 TO RUN THROUGH NOON TODAY. TEMPERATURES AT 900 AND
950 MB ARE EXPECTED TO COOL SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
SHOULD END THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.

LITTLE OR NO SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND ARCTIC SLOPE
THROUGH FRI.

THE LATER PARTS OF THE CURRENT GFS/ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE THE
GENERAL TREND TO COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN ALASKA
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD TROUGH ALOFT EXPANDS WESTWARD
OUT OF NORTHWEST CANADA. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN 500 HEIGHT PROGS VALID MON AND TUE AFTERNOON...
SHOWING A MEAN TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE MACKENZIE
DELTA AREA ACROSS ALASKA AND HEIGHTS FALLING TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. AT 850 MB...ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPERATURES DROP TO
THE -12C TO -20C RANGE OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE NORTHERN
ALASKA MAINLAND BY TUE.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR AKZ213-AKZ214.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

RF NOV 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 261310
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
410 AM AKST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD...RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE
WESTERN BEAUFORT SEA TO THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD
BY LATE THU NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN
BY SAT AFTERNOON. A NEW RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA AND THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BY SUN AFTERNOON.
IN THE SHORT TERM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE BERING SEA TODAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA THU AND THU EVENING.

SURFACE...
A 992 MB LOW 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL MOVE
TO 400 MILES WEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH 250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE
NAVARIN BY LATE TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE BERING SEA TODAY. A 980 MB LOW 299 MILES SOUTH OF
SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 100 MILES WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND BY THU
AFTERNOON WEAKENING TO 987 MB. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA THU AND THU EVENING.

THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN
WEST COAST AREAS. TEMPERATURES AT 900 AND 950 MB WILL BE NEAR TO A
LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING OVER ZONES 213 AND 214 THIS MORNING...AND
NEAR FREEZING OVER OVER ZONES 211-212-WESTERN ZONE 215 THIS
MORNING. WILL ALLOW THE ONGOING FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES FOR
ZONES 213-214 TO RUN THROUGH NOON TODAY. TEMPERATURES AT 900 AND
950 MB ARE EXPECTED TO COOL SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
SHOULD END THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.

LITTLE OR NO SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND ARCTIC SLOPE
THROUGH FRI.

THE LATER PARTS OF THE CURRENT GFS/ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE THE
GENERAL TREND TO COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN ALASKA
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD TROUGH ALOFT EXPANDS WESTWARD
OUT OF NORTHWEST CANADA. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN 500 HEIGHT PROGS VALID MON AND TUE AFTERNOON...
SHOWING A MEAN TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE MACKENZIE
DELTA AREA ACROSS ALASKA AND HEIGHTS FALLING TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. AT 850 MB...ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPERATURES DROP TO
THE -12C TO -20C RANGE OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE NORTHERN
ALASKA MAINLAND BY TUE.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR AKZ213-AKZ214.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

RF NOV 14





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