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000
FXAK69 PAFG 242248
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
248 PM AKDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE GFS HAD
BEEN THE LONE HOLDOUT BUT WITH THE LAST MODEL RUN IT HAS SEEN THE
ERROR IN ITS WAYS. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR NORTHERN ALASKA IS
ESSENTIALLY A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN STORE FOR NORTHERN ALASKA.

STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE THROUGH FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY AS THE UPPER LOW GETS TRAPPED
AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE.
EXPECT SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY IF NOT INTO SAT.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC ARE
GUSTING 25 TO 35 THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST ARE KEEPING WINDS GUSTY THROUGH
THE KOTZEBUE SOUND AREA.

SNOWFALL OF A COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH THE COLD ADVECTION MOVING IN.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE AND HIT THE WEST COAST
BEAR POINT HOPE AND TRAVEL SOUTHEASTWARD SUN.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODERATELY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE
WILL CAUSE RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE BUT DO NOT EXPECT FLOODING AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CF JUL 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 242248
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
248 PM AKDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE GFS HAD
BEEN THE LONE HOLDOUT BUT WITH THE LAST MODEL RUN IT HAS SEEN THE
ERROR IN ITS WAYS. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR NORTHERN ALASKA IS
ESSENTIALLY A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN STORE FOR NORTHERN ALASKA.

STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE THROUGH FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY AS THE UPPER LOW GETS TRAPPED
AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE.
EXPECT SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY IF NOT INTO SAT.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC ARE
GUSTING 25 TO 35 THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST ARE KEEPING WINDS GUSTY THROUGH
THE KOTZEBUE SOUND AREA.

SNOWFALL OF A COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH THE COLD ADVECTION MOVING IN.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE AND HIT THE WEST COAST
BEAR POINT HOPE AND TRAVEL SOUTHEASTWARD SUN.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODERATELY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE
WILL CAUSE RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE BUT DO NOT EXPECT FLOODING AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CF JUL 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 241350
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
550 AM AKDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM BARROW TO CORDOVA WILL MOVE TO
PRUDHOE BAY TO CORDOVA 4PM SAT WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR FAIRBANKS.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN ALASKA AND FAR
EAST RUSSIA INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR DURING THIS TIME AND HELP
FORM THE CLOSED LOW WHICH DEVELOPS IN THE TROUGH.

SURFACE...COLD FRONT FROM NEAR BARTER ISLAND TO TANANA TO 50
MILES NORTH OF UNALAKLEET TO THE SOUTHERN BERING STRAIT...MOVING
TO INUVIK CANADA TO EAGLE TO DELTA JUNCTION TO TALKEETNA TO ANVIK
TO NOME 10 AM FRI...THEN THE PORTION OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL
DRIFT EAST TO LIE FROM DENALI PARK TO CAPE LISBURNE THROUGH 4PM
SAT.

MODELS...NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTION ALOFT ARE FAVORED OVER GFS IN THAT
THEY DEVELOP THE CLOSED LOW NEAR FAIRBANKS SAT AFTERNOON. IN
MEDIUM TERM THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
IN MAINTAINING THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ALASKA WHILE EXPANDING THE
BERING SEA RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR.

NORTH SLOPE...THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW OVER THE BROOKS RANGE ABOVE 2000 FT WHICH WILL
TAPER OFF FROM THE EAST ON FRIDAY. AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.

WESTERN ALASKA...AREAS OF RAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WILL MIX
WITH OR TURN TO SNOW ABOVE 2000 FEET OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE
BROOKS RANGE TODAY FOR UP TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. PRECIPITATION
ENDING FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM RUSSIA WILL BRING PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO
THE BERING STRAIT AND SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND FRI AND TO NOME FRI
NIGHT AND NORTON SOUND SAT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN
FROM WESTERN ALASKA...AREAS OF RAIN NEAR AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. UP TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE
CHENA BASIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
OVER THE UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH HEATING ALLOWS DESTABILIZATION AT LOW LEVELS.
ANOTHER AREA FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS THE UPPER TANANA
VALLEY WHERE SOME UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DRIFT EAST TONIGHT...THE AREA
OF PERSISTENT RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST OF FORT YUKON AND FAIRBANKS
WHERE UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE FORTY MILE COUNTRY
AND DELTA AREA...AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE
FROM THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY TO DENALI PARK THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE EXPECT SNOW LEVEL TO DROP TO
3000 FEET TONIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF SEVERAL INCHES INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE WET AND COOL PATTERN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL
KEEP HUMIDITIES HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR WILL RISE INTO THE
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN...FOR NOW NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. SMALL STREAMS IN THE CENTRAL
ALASKA RANGE WILL ESPECIALLY RUN HIGH. THE RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE DID NOT ACCUMULATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
THE EXTENT WAS THOUGHT EARLIER...SO STREAMS THERE WILL ONLY RISE
SOMEWHAT AFTER SOME RAIN TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ245.
&&

$$

JL JUL 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 241350
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
550 AM AKDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM BARROW TO CORDOVA WILL MOVE TO
PRUDHOE BAY TO CORDOVA 4PM SAT WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR FAIRBANKS.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN ALASKA AND FAR
EAST RUSSIA INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR DURING THIS TIME AND HELP
FORM THE CLOSED LOW WHICH DEVELOPS IN THE TROUGH.

SURFACE...COLD FRONT FROM NEAR BARTER ISLAND TO TANANA TO 50
MILES NORTH OF UNALAKLEET TO THE SOUTHERN BERING STRAIT...MOVING
TO INUVIK CANADA TO EAGLE TO DELTA JUNCTION TO TALKEETNA TO ANVIK
TO NOME 10 AM FRI...THEN THE PORTION OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL
DRIFT EAST TO LIE FROM DENALI PARK TO CAPE LISBURNE THROUGH 4PM
SAT.

MODELS...NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTION ALOFT ARE FAVORED OVER GFS IN THAT
THEY DEVELOP THE CLOSED LOW NEAR FAIRBANKS SAT AFTERNOON. IN
MEDIUM TERM THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
IN MAINTAINING THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ALASKA WHILE EXPANDING THE
BERING SEA RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR.

NORTH SLOPE...THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW OVER THE BROOKS RANGE ABOVE 2000 FT WHICH WILL
TAPER OFF FROM THE EAST ON FRIDAY. AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.

WESTERN ALASKA...AREAS OF RAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WILL MIX
WITH OR TURN TO SNOW ABOVE 2000 FEET OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE
BROOKS RANGE TODAY FOR UP TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. PRECIPITATION
ENDING FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM RUSSIA WILL BRING PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO
THE BERING STRAIT AND SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND FRI AND TO NOME FRI
NIGHT AND NORTON SOUND SAT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN
FROM WESTERN ALASKA...AREAS OF RAIN NEAR AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. UP TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE
CHENA BASIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
OVER THE UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH HEATING ALLOWS DESTABILIZATION AT LOW LEVELS.
ANOTHER AREA FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS THE UPPER TANANA
VALLEY WHERE SOME UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DRIFT EAST TONIGHT...THE AREA
OF PERSISTENT RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST OF FORT YUKON AND FAIRBANKS
WHERE UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE FORTY MILE COUNTRY
AND DELTA AREA...AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE
FROM THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY TO DENALI PARK THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE EXPECT SNOW LEVEL TO DROP TO
3000 FEET TONIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF SEVERAL INCHES INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE WET AND COOL PATTERN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL
KEEP HUMIDITIES HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR WILL RISE INTO THE
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN...FOR NOW NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. SMALL STREAMS IN THE CENTRAL
ALASKA RANGE WILL ESPECIALLY RUN HIGH. THE RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE DID NOT ACCUMULATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
THE EXTENT WAS THOUGHT EARLIER...SO STREAMS THERE WILL ONLY RISE
SOMEWHAT AFTER SOME RAIN TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ245.
&&

$$

JL JUL 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 232208
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
208 PM AKDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND MOVING EAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND
FROM WELL NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST TO OVER PRUDHOE BAY...WEST OF
FAIRBANKS...AND SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. A SHORT WAVE MOVING
INTO THE LONG WAVE SUNDAY SHOWS DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AMOUNT MODELS...HOWEVER THERE IS AGREEMENT
IN THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BROOKS RANGE WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ALCAN BORDER THURSDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO CANADA THROUGH
SATURDAY. A FRONT DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE INTERIOR AS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS INTO APPROACHES THE ALCAN
BORDER ON FRIDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...A COOL AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY LONGER. RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM BARROW WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A CHANGE OVER TO FLURRIES COULD OCCUR EAST TO PRUDHOE BAY
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE AIRMASS DRYS OFF BEHIND THE TROUGH...SO ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

WEST COAST...RAIN WILL TAPER TO LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY...
THEN A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN THOSE WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM.

INTERIOR...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST HAS ALREADY SPREAD AREAS
OF RAIN OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR. RAIN WILL MOVE EAST TO THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR AND SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE TONIGHT...
THEN TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE AT
ELEVATIONS OF 5000 FEET THURSDAY...THEN LOWERING TO 2000 FEET
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE RISING BACK TO 4000 FEET ON FRIDAY. THE
AIRMASS WILL DRY CONSIDERABLY AFTER CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SO
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES OVER THAT PART
OF ALASKA.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...RAINS IN THE KOYUKUK VALLEY WILL BE HEAVIEST TONIGHT...
THEN TAPER OFF AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOODING FROM RISES OF STREAMS
AND RIVERS IN THE KOYUKUK VALLEY...HOWEVER STREAMS AND SMALLER
RIVERS WILL RISE BUT NOT ABOVE BANKFULL. PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH
SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE WILL ALSO BE HEAVY IN AREAS...BUT NOT
HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING. ANOTHER FACTOR WILL BE SNOW...AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHICH WILL NOT DRAIN IMMEDIATELY INTO BASINS.
FOR THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE...MODELS SHOW A BULLSEYE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER MOUNT MCKINLEY...BUT DUE TO THE ELEVATION...
MOST OF THAT WILL BE SNOW AND THUS WILL BE SLOWER TO DRAIN.
OTHERWISE FOR THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE...AREAS OF RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE RAPID RISES OF
STREAMS...SO A HYDROLOGIC STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT AREA.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220.
&&

$$

DA JUL 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 232208
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
208 PM AKDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND MOVING EAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND
FROM WELL NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST TO OVER PRUDHOE BAY...WEST OF
FAIRBANKS...AND SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. A SHORT WAVE MOVING
INTO THE LONG WAVE SUNDAY SHOWS DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AMOUNT MODELS...HOWEVER THERE IS AGREEMENT
IN THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BROOKS RANGE WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ALCAN BORDER THURSDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO CANADA THROUGH
SATURDAY. A FRONT DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE INTERIOR AS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS INTO APPROACHES THE ALCAN
BORDER ON FRIDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...A COOL AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY LONGER. RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM BARROW WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A CHANGE OVER TO FLURRIES COULD OCCUR EAST TO PRUDHOE BAY
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE AIRMASS DRYS OFF BEHIND THE TROUGH...SO ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

WEST COAST...RAIN WILL TAPER TO LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY...
THEN A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN THOSE WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM.

INTERIOR...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST HAS ALREADY SPREAD AREAS
OF RAIN OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR. RAIN WILL MOVE EAST TO THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR AND SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE TONIGHT...
THEN TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE AT
ELEVATIONS OF 5000 FEET THURSDAY...THEN LOWERING TO 2000 FEET
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE RISING BACK TO 4000 FEET ON FRIDAY. THE
AIRMASS WILL DRY CONSIDERABLY AFTER CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SO
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES OVER THAT PART
OF ALASKA.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...RAINS IN THE KOYUKUK VALLEY WILL BE HEAVIEST TONIGHT...
THEN TAPER OFF AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOODING FROM RISES OF STREAMS
AND RIVERS IN THE KOYUKUK VALLEY...HOWEVER STREAMS AND SMALLER
RIVERS WILL RISE BUT NOT ABOVE BANKFULL. PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH
SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE WILL ALSO BE HEAVY IN AREAS...BUT NOT
HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING. ANOTHER FACTOR WILL BE SNOW...AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHICH WILL NOT DRAIN IMMEDIATELY INTO BASINS.
FOR THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE...MODELS SHOW A BULLSEYE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER MOUNT MCKINLEY...BUT DUE TO THE ELEVATION...
MOST OF THAT WILL BE SNOW AND THUS WILL BE SLOWER TO DRAIN.
OTHERWISE FOR THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE...AREAS OF RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE RAPID RISES OF
STREAMS...SO A HYDROLOGIC STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT AREA.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220.
&&

$$

DA JUL 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 231441
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
641 AM AKDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER MAINLAND ALASKA TODAY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS GENERALLY COOL
AND CLOUDY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL MOVE NE TODAY.
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL MOVE NE TODAY.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE ALONG THE DATELINE WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR TODAY AND TO NE ALASKA TONIGHT. MORE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS.

A THIRD SHORT WAVE NORTH OF THE SIBERIAN COAST WILL MOVE TO NW
ALASKA TONIGHT AND TO ANAKTUVUK PASS TO MCGRATH BY 4PM THU AND TO
ATIGUN PASS TO FAIRBANKS BY 4PM FRI. WILL MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN
WITH THIS AND SNOW IN THE BROOKS RANGE.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -2C ALONG THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST
TO +12C IN THE SE INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY
ALONG THE WESTERN ARCTIC AND WEST COAST TONIGHT AND THU...AND IN
THE INTERIOR THU NIGHT AND FRI.


SURFACE...
A WEAK THERMAL LOW IN THE SE INTERIOR ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL ALLOW ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THERE
TODAY AND THU.

A 1005 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTH OF BARROW WILL MOVE TO NEAR DEMARCATION
POINT AS A 1001 MB LOW BY 4AM THU AND THEN CONTINUE EAST. A COLD
FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW TO MCGRATH WILL MOVE TO
ARCTIC VILLAGE TO MINCHUMINA BY 4PM THU AND TO EAGLE TO DELTA BY
4AM THU THEN STALLING. EXPECT .25-.50 INCH OF RAIN WITH THIS
HEAVIEST ALONG THE BROOKS RANGE.

A 997 MB LOW OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WILL MOVE TO NEAR
KIVALINA AS A 1002 MB LOW BY 4PM WED...TO ANAKTUVUK AS A 1008 MB
LOW BY 4PM THU...AND TO ARCTIC VILLAGE AS A 1010 MB LOW BY 4PM
FRI. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING S FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE
WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON...INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT...TO
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THU PM...AND OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR THU
NIGHT AND FRI. EXPECT ANOTHER .25-1.00 INCH OF RAIN WITH THIS LOW
AND FRONT. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE BROOKS RANGE AND
IN THE ALASKA RANGE. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WITH JUST WEST OF THE
LOW WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW IN THE BROOKS RANGE.
EXPECT 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE BROOKS RANGE...WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ABOVE 3000 FT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR PATTERNS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SINCE THIS IS DYNAMIC HIGH SPEED FLOW EXPECT DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING BUT THE GENERAL WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECT .75-1.50 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL CAUSE ALL STREAMS AND RIVERS TO
RISE TO HIGH LEVELS. SINCE MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SNOW EXPECT
RUN OFF TO BE OVER A LONG ENOUGH TIME PERIOD THAT NO FLOODING WILL
OCCUR.

HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN WESTERN DENALI PARK THU AND THU NIGHT COULD
LEAD TO SMALL STREAM ISSUES THERE THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

JB JUL 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 231441
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
641 AM AKDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER MAINLAND ALASKA TODAY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS GENERALLY COOL
AND CLOUDY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL MOVE NE TODAY.
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL MOVE NE TODAY.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE ALONG THE DATELINE WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR TODAY AND TO NE ALASKA TONIGHT. MORE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS.

A THIRD SHORT WAVE NORTH OF THE SIBERIAN COAST WILL MOVE TO NW
ALASKA TONIGHT AND TO ANAKTUVUK PASS TO MCGRATH BY 4PM THU AND TO
ATIGUN PASS TO FAIRBANKS BY 4PM FRI. WILL MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN
WITH THIS AND SNOW IN THE BROOKS RANGE.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -2C ALONG THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST
TO +12C IN THE SE INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY
ALONG THE WESTERN ARCTIC AND WEST COAST TONIGHT AND THU...AND IN
THE INTERIOR THU NIGHT AND FRI.


SURFACE...
A WEAK THERMAL LOW IN THE SE INTERIOR ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL ALLOW ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THERE
TODAY AND THU.

A 1005 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTH OF BARROW WILL MOVE TO NEAR DEMARCATION
POINT AS A 1001 MB LOW BY 4AM THU AND THEN CONTINUE EAST. A COLD
FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW TO MCGRATH WILL MOVE TO
ARCTIC VILLAGE TO MINCHUMINA BY 4PM THU AND TO EAGLE TO DELTA BY
4AM THU THEN STALLING. EXPECT .25-.50 INCH OF RAIN WITH THIS
HEAVIEST ALONG THE BROOKS RANGE.

A 997 MB LOW OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WILL MOVE TO NEAR
KIVALINA AS A 1002 MB LOW BY 4PM WED...TO ANAKTUVUK AS A 1008 MB
LOW BY 4PM THU...AND TO ARCTIC VILLAGE AS A 1010 MB LOW BY 4PM
FRI. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING S FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE
WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON...INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT...TO
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THU PM...AND OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR THU
NIGHT AND FRI. EXPECT ANOTHER .25-1.00 INCH OF RAIN WITH THIS LOW
AND FRONT. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE BROOKS RANGE AND
IN THE ALASKA RANGE. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WITH JUST WEST OF THE
LOW WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW IN THE BROOKS RANGE.
EXPECT 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE BROOKS RANGE...WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ABOVE 3000 FT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR PATTERNS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SINCE THIS IS DYNAMIC HIGH SPEED FLOW EXPECT DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING BUT THE GENERAL WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECT .75-1.50 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL CAUSE ALL STREAMS AND RIVERS TO
RISE TO HIGH LEVELS. SINCE MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SNOW EXPECT
RUN OFF TO BE OVER A LONG ENOUGH TIME PERIOD THAT NO FLOODING WILL
OCCUR.

HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN WESTERN DENALI PARK THU AND THU NIGHT COULD
LEAD TO SMALL STREAM ISSUES THERE THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

JB JUL 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 222103
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
103 PM AKDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST IN TO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF A PARC TO TO PABT TO PATA LINE.
A SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE AND SEWARD
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WEST COAST WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND
FRONT DRIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD AND STALLS ALONG WITH THE FIRST
BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR.

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE WEST COAST AND
WESTERN INTERIOR THURSDAY AND STALLS OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PERSISTS DOWN RANGE OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN BERING SEA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PUMPED INTO THE BROOKS RANGE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INITIALLY AND THEN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE TROUGH
DEEPENS AND DRIFTS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TO EASTERN
ALASKA. 48 HOUR TOTALS FROM THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES BRINGS ONE
HALF TO ONE INCH OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE.
SMALL RIVERS WILL RISE AS RUNOFF FROM ONGOING AND EXPECTED PRECIP
EVENTS FALLS ON RECENTLY SATURATED BASINS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL RISE RAPIDLY AND
CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK.

THE PARADE OF SHORT WAVES DIVING SOUTH DEEPENS THE LONG WAVE
RIDGE TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BY THE WEEKEND. WET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR MOST OF
NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLD AIRMASS DIVES SOUTH
INTO WESTERN NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND THE CENTRAL NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE THURSDAY.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST ALASKA AND
THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE PASSES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ATIGUN
PASS COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW THURSDAY.

RELATIVE MEASURES OF PREDICTABILITY REMAIN HIGH WITH MINIMAL
DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN SYNOPTIC MODELS IN LONG WAVE POSITION
AND STRENGTH INTO THE MID AND LONG TERM. COOL AND WET PATTERN ON
TAP FOR ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE MID AND LONG TERM.



COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE YUKON HOLDS FAST. ISOLATED WET
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST INTERIOR TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SERIES OF FRONTS WILL CONTINUE TO STALL OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
AND BROOKS RANGE. 48 HR RAIN FALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE. WILL
UPDATE SPS AND HYDRO STATEMENT TO INCLUDE RISING WATER LEVELS ON
SMALL STREAMS IN ZONES 218..219...216...205 AND 206 IN ADDITION TO
CURRENT STATEMENT COVERING ZONE 217. LONG DURATION EVENT COMBINED
WITH RAIN FALL AMOUNTS...AND SNOW AT ELEVATION IN THE BROOKS RANGE
SHOULD NOT SEND RIVERS OUT OF THEIR BANKS HOWEVER EXPECT SMALL
STREAMS TO RISE RAPIDLY AND CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK
IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

CCC JUL 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 222103
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
103 PM AKDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST IN TO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF A PARC TO TO PABT TO PATA LINE.
A SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE AND SEWARD
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WEST COAST WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND
FRONT DRIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD AND STALLS ALONG WITH THE FIRST
BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR.

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE WEST COAST AND
WESTERN INTERIOR THURSDAY AND STALLS OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PERSISTS DOWN RANGE OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN BERING SEA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PUMPED INTO THE BROOKS RANGE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INITIALLY AND THEN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE TROUGH
DEEPENS AND DRIFTS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TO EASTERN
ALASKA. 48 HOUR TOTALS FROM THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES BRINGS ONE
HALF TO ONE INCH OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE.
SMALL RIVERS WILL RISE AS RUNOFF FROM ONGOING AND EXPECTED PRECIP
EVENTS FALLS ON RECENTLY SATURATED BASINS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL RISE RAPIDLY AND
CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK.

THE PARADE OF SHORT WAVES DIVING SOUTH DEEPENS THE LONG WAVE
RIDGE TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BY THE WEEKEND. WET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR MOST OF
NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLD AIRMASS DIVES SOUTH
INTO WESTERN NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND THE CENTRAL NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE THURSDAY.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST ALASKA AND
THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE PASSES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ATIGUN
PASS COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW THURSDAY.

RELATIVE MEASURES OF PREDICTABILITY REMAIN HIGH WITH MINIMAL
DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN SYNOPTIC MODELS IN LONG WAVE POSITION
AND STRENGTH INTO THE MID AND LONG TERM. COOL AND WET PATTERN ON
TAP FOR ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE MID AND LONG TERM.



COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE YUKON HOLDS FAST. ISOLATED WET
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST INTERIOR TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SERIES OF FRONTS WILL CONTINUE TO STALL OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
AND BROOKS RANGE. 48 HR RAIN FALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE. WILL
UPDATE SPS AND HYDRO STATEMENT TO INCLUDE RISING WATER LEVELS ON
SMALL STREAMS IN ZONES 218..219...216...205 AND 206 IN ADDITION TO
CURRENT STATEMENT COVERING ZONE 217. LONG DURATION EVENT COMBINED
WITH RAIN FALL AMOUNTS...AND SNOW AT ELEVATION IN THE BROOKS RANGE
SHOULD NOT SEND RIVERS OUT OF THEIR BANKS HOWEVER EXPECT SMALL
STREAMS TO RISE RAPIDLY AND CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK
IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

CCC JUL 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 221431
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
631 AM AKDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA WILL MOVE EAST
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH TONIGHT. A SECOND SHORT WAVE OVER THE
RUSSIAN ARCTIC WILL MOVE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WED AND PHASE IN
WITH THE FIRST SHORT WAVE. A THIRD SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER
ALASKA THU AND MERGE WITH THE PREVIOUS WAVES TO FORM A LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. THIS TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS GENERALLY COOL AND WET THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

WEAK INSTABILITY IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM TANANA TO
DENALI WILL MOVE TO COLDFOOT TO NENANA BY 4PM TUE AND TO OLD CROW
TO EAGLE BY 4AM WED. THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS TROUGH NOW AND EXPECT THOSE SAME
CONDITIONS TO MOVE NE WITH THE TROUGH.

SURFACE...
A 988 MB LOW 500 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THIS LOW TO THE BROOKS
RANGE TO KOTZEBUE TO ST MATTHEW ISLAND WILL MOVE INLAND TO ARCTIC
VILLAGE TO AMBLER TO BETHEL BY 4PM TUE...TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO
BETTLES TO ANVIK BY 4AM WED...AND THE DISSIPATING FROM ARCTIC
VILLAGE TO MCGRATH BY 4PM WED. THERE IS WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT .25 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAIN THROUGH WED ALONG THE FRONT
WITH THE HEAVIEST IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE BROOKS RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE ARCTIC COAST TODAY AND WEAKEN
WED. THIS WILL CAUSE FOG ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST.

A LOW DEVELOPING IN CHUKOTKA TODAY WILL MOVE TO KIVALINA AS A
1002 MB LOW BY 4PM WED...TO ANAKTUVUK PASS BY 4AM THU...AND TO
ARCTIC VILLAGE BY 4PM THU. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS LOW WILL
BRING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE NORTH SLOPE AND WEST COAST OF
ALASKA WITH SNOW POSSIBLE IN NW ALASKA AND THE BROOKS RANGE WED
NIGHT AND THU. EXPECT ANOTHER .25 INCH OF RAIN WITH THE FRONT AND
.50-1.00 INCH ALONG THE BROOKS RANGE. COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE BROOKS RANGE WED NIGHT AND THU WITH THIS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THU.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION...
.25 TO 1.00 INCH EXPECTED THROUGH WED WESTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTH
SLOPES OF BROOKS RANGE FROM PIPELINE WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE RISES
ON KOYUKUK...KOBUK AND NOATAK RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS IN THOSE
BASINS OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WITH RIVER LEVELS ELEVATED OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND WESTERN
INTERIOR THIS NEW RAIN WILL PUT THEM AT HIGH LEVELS ALTHOUGH THE
RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

$$

JB JUL 14





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