Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXAK69 PAFG 011219
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
419 AM AKDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER NW CANADA WILL REGRESS WEST OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA BY THU AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MERGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND REMAIN COOL INTO NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE...
A 1012 MB LOW 200 NM WEST OF BARROW WILL MOVE TO 60 NM EAST OF
BARROW BY 4PM WED...TO 100 NM NORTHEAST OF BARTER ISLAND BY 4AM
THU...AND TO 200 NM NORTHEAST OF BARTER ISLAND BY 4PM THU. A WARM
FRONT STRETCHING SE FROM THE LOW TO AMBLER WILL MOVE EAST TO
TANANA BY 4PM WED AND EAST OF THE ALCAN BORDER LATE WED. WILL SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH AND WEST OF THIS FRONT
ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 KT.

A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SW FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO NUIQSUT TO
THE BERING STRAIT BY 4PM WED... TO BARTER ISLAND TO HUSLIA TO THE
YUKON DELTA TO GAMBELL BY 4AM THU...TO OLD CROW TO INDIAN MOUNTAIN
TO HOOPER BAY BY 4PM THU.. AND THEN DRIFTING EAST AND WEAKENING
THU NIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WITH
850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -8C OR COLDER. WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW
WITH THE FRONT IN NW ALASKA AND OVER THE NORTH SLOPE WITH 1-4
INCHES IN THE BROOKS RANGE. SCATTERED/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE. WILL SEE NW WINDS 15-25 KT
WITH THE FRONT ALONG THE COASTS WITH THE FRONT DIMINISHING TO N-NE
15 KT INLAND. WILL SEE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW IN NW ALASKA THU-FRI DUE
TO THE VERY COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE WARMER WATER. FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND THU BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

A STRONG LOW MOVING INTO THE NE GULF OF ALASKA FRI WILL SPREAD
SNOW TO THE SE INTERIOR FRI AND ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR SAT.
ITS POSSIBLE THAT FRI-SAT COULD SEE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS
FEATURE IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR WITH 6-8 INCHES IN THE EASTERN
ALASKA RANGE. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 4AM THU...THEREAFTER SEE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE LOW
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE NEW 06Z GFS IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
NAM AND ECMF MODELS ON THE LOCATION OF THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW OUT
TO 4AM FRI. WILL GO WITH THE 06Z GFS SOLUTION.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS DROPPING AS SMALL BODIES OF WATER START TO FREEZE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ245.

&&

$$

JB OCT 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 011219
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
419 AM AKDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER NW CANADA WILL REGRESS WEST OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA BY THU AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MERGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND REMAIN COOL INTO NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE...
A 1012 MB LOW 200 NM WEST OF BARROW WILL MOVE TO 60 NM EAST OF
BARROW BY 4PM WED...TO 100 NM NORTHEAST OF BARTER ISLAND BY 4AM
THU...AND TO 200 NM NORTHEAST OF BARTER ISLAND BY 4PM THU. A WARM
FRONT STRETCHING SE FROM THE LOW TO AMBLER WILL MOVE EAST TO
TANANA BY 4PM WED AND EAST OF THE ALCAN BORDER LATE WED. WILL SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH AND WEST OF THIS FRONT
ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 KT.

A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SW FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO NUIQSUT TO
THE BERING STRAIT BY 4PM WED... TO BARTER ISLAND TO HUSLIA TO THE
YUKON DELTA TO GAMBELL BY 4AM THU...TO OLD CROW TO INDIAN MOUNTAIN
TO HOOPER BAY BY 4PM THU.. AND THEN DRIFTING EAST AND WEAKENING
THU NIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WITH
850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -8C OR COLDER. WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW
WITH THE FRONT IN NW ALASKA AND OVER THE NORTH SLOPE WITH 1-4
INCHES IN THE BROOKS RANGE. SCATTERED/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE. WILL SEE NW WINDS 15-25 KT
WITH THE FRONT ALONG THE COASTS WITH THE FRONT DIMINISHING TO N-NE
15 KT INLAND. WILL SEE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW IN NW ALASKA THU-FRI DUE
TO THE VERY COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE WARMER WATER. FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND THU BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

A STRONG LOW MOVING INTO THE NE GULF OF ALASKA FRI WILL SPREAD
SNOW TO THE SE INTERIOR FRI AND ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR SAT.
ITS POSSIBLE THAT FRI-SAT COULD SEE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS
FEATURE IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR WITH 6-8 INCHES IN THE EASTERN
ALASKA RANGE. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 4AM THU...THEREAFTER SEE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE LOW
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE NEW 06Z GFS IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
NAM AND ECMF MODELS ON THE LOCATION OF THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW OUT
TO 4AM FRI. WILL GO WITH THE 06Z GFS SOLUTION.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS DROPPING AS SMALL BODIES OF WATER START TO FREEZE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ245.

&&

$$

JB OCT 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 302342
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
342 PM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE NORTHWEST (OR WEST) FLOW ALOFT THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER
ALL BUT OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES WILL SPREAD OVER THEM AS WELL
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN WILL BRING IN A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WHICH WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION. MOST OF THOSE DISTURBANCES WILL BE POORLY
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT IN DEALING WITH ONE OF THEM.

A 1008 MB LOW JUST WEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
RAPIDLY EAST...PASSING NORTH OF CAPE LISBURNE TONIGHT... TO
CENTER BETWEEN BARROW AND PRUDHOE BAY AT 4 PM WEDNESDAY AT
AROUND 1012 MB. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA
TO BE ABOUT 150 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT AT 4AM THURSDAY.
THIS LITTLE LOW WILL BRING MOST OF OUR ARCTIC MARINE AREAS UP
TO 25 KT AT SOME POINT...THOUGH TYPICALLY JUST FOR 6 TO 12
HOURS.

THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR...AND THERE
WILL BE DIURNAL VARIATIONS IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AS WELL...BUT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

EXPECT SNOW ALONE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN ZONES 205 AND 206.
UP TO 2 INCHES AGAIN TONIGHT IN ZONE 206. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
GIVE ANOTHER INCH ON WEDNESDAY...THEN AROUND THAT MUCH LIKELY
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO ISSUES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

DJH SEP 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 302342
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
342 PM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE NORTHWEST (OR WEST) FLOW ALOFT THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER
ALL BUT OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES WILL SPREAD OVER THEM AS WELL
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN WILL BRING IN A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WHICH WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION. MOST OF THOSE DISTURBANCES WILL BE POORLY
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT IN DEALING WITH ONE OF THEM.

A 1008 MB LOW JUST WEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
RAPIDLY EAST...PASSING NORTH OF CAPE LISBURNE TONIGHT... TO
CENTER BETWEEN BARROW AND PRUDHOE BAY AT 4 PM WEDNESDAY AT
AROUND 1012 MB. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA
TO BE ABOUT 150 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT AT 4AM THURSDAY.
THIS LITTLE LOW WILL BRING MOST OF OUR ARCTIC MARINE AREAS UP
TO 25 KT AT SOME POINT...THOUGH TYPICALLY JUST FOR 6 TO 12
HOURS.

THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR...AND THERE
WILL BE DIURNAL VARIATIONS IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AS WELL...BUT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

EXPECT SNOW ALONE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN ZONES 205 AND 206.
UP TO 2 INCHES AGAIN TONIGHT IN ZONE 206. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
GIVE ANOTHER INCH ON WEDNESDAY...THEN AROUND THAT MUCH LIKELY
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO ISSUES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

DJH SEP 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 301300
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
500 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...BROAD TROUGH FROM THE ARCTIC TO THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BUT THEN REFORM BY THU AS ANOTHER TROUGH
OVER THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC DIGS SOUTH OVER WESTERN ALASKA. THIS
TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE OVERING THE BERING SEA TO WEAKEN SOME
ON THU AND SHIFT WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
STATE WITH A FEW SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WILL SPREAD EAST
TODAY AND THEN BEGIN WEAKENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WED.

SURFACE...1000 MB LOW NEAR YAKUTAT WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY. 1004 MB LOW 120 MILES NORTHEAST OF BARROW WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES TO NEAR BARTER ISLAND 4PM TODAY AND THEN DISSIPATES. A
SECOND LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF 1008 MB ALONG THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC
COAST WILL MOVE TO NEAR BARROW WED AM AT 1012 MB...THEN TO 100
MILES NORTHEAST OF BARTER ISLAND 4AM THU. 1028 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WILL DRIFT NORTH THROUGH WED THEN MOVE TO THE
CHUKOTSK PENINSULA THU.

MODELS...AT THE SURFACE THE MODELS AGREE WELL IN POSITION OF THE
LOWS MOVING ALONG IN THE ARCTIC...WHERE THERE IS VARIANCE IS IN
THE DEPTH OF THE LOW...THOUGH IT IS WEAK ENOUGH TO NOT MAKE MUCH
OF A DIFFERENCE. IN THE MEDIUM TERM MODELS AGREE FAIRLY CLOSE
THROUGH MON AND THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

NORTH SLOPE...WINDS OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST ARE DIMINISHING
THIS MORNING...AND WHILE WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE NORHTERN
ARCTIC COAST TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WINDS SHOULD
NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT PROLONGED SURF CONCERNS. SO HAVE
REMOVED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES. THE NEXT LOW MOVING ACROSS ON
WED AND THU MAY BRING SURF UP AGAIN THOUGH THE FEATURE IS MOVING
FAST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR PROBLEMS LOW. WITH THE
CURRENT LOW AND THE NEXT LOW MOVING ALONG NORTH OF THE
COAST...EXPECT PERIODS OF SNOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH AMOUNTS ENHANCED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS
RANGE.

WESTERN ALASKA...WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST COASTLINE ARE
DIMINISHING THIS MORNING AND THE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
REMOVED. SPOTTY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED NORTH OF THE
SEWARD PENINSULA TODAY. WITH INCOMING TROUGH MOVING SOUTH OVER THE
AREA THU IT WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND SNOW WED OVER THE NORTHWEST
ZONES...MOVING TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA...MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY...AND
NULATO HILLS ON THU.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM ATIGUN
PASS TO FAIRBANKS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO THE CANADA BORDER BY
4PM TODAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS
FEATURE AND EXPECT AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT...THOUGH AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW COULD OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MIDDLE TANANA
VALLEY AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY. SOME RAIN AND SNOW THIS MORNING
OVER THE FAR UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND FAR EASTERN ALASKA RANGE DUE
TO THE LOW NEAR YAKUTAT. ON THU THE DIGGING TROUGH OVER WESTERN
ALASKA WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
WHICH WILL HELP SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NORTH OF FAIRBANKS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

$$

JL SEP 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 292203
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
203 PM AKDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL IN THE SHORT
TERM AS WELL AS THE MID TERM. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES EMERGE BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH LARGE AMPLITUDE PATTERN EVOLUTION.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...A 524 DAM LOW 100 NM NORTH OF BARROW CONTINUES TO
ANCHOR THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN
INTERIOR. THE LOW MOVES SOUTH AND EAST AND WILL BE LOCATED OVER
PRUDHOE BAY TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE TROUGH PUSHING OVER THE ALCAN
BORDER. A STRONG RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE EASTERN BERING
SEA AND BUILDS NORTH AND WEST INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA BY MID
WEEK AND OVER SIBERIA BY WEEKS END. A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN SETS
UP THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS AND
RETROGRADES BACK WEST INTO ALASKA AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
SIBERIA. DEEP AND COLD TROUGH SETTLES OVER ALASKA NEXT WEEK.

ON THE SURFACE A 996 MB LOW APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTHWEST OF
BARROW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO AROUND 1005 MB AS IT MOVES NORTH
AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
WEAK LOW FORMS OVER THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY
EVENING AND WILL MOVE INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA AS A 1005 MB LOW AND
BE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS THE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA AND SOUTH OF ICY CAPE WILL DIMINISH TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS TONIGHT. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS TO BUILD IN
THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF ICY CAPE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
WINDS ALONG THE SEWARD PENINSULA WEST OF CAPE ESPENBERG AND
KOTZEBUE SOUND WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 207...209...201 AND WILL BE IN EFFECT TOMORROW
FOR ZONE 202.

SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BRING SEVERAL PERIODS OF SNOW TO THE
NORTH SLOPE AND ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. SNOW TOTALS
IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE MAY REACH OVER 1 FOOT BY
FRIDAY...HOWEVER NO PARTICULAR EVENT IS EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY
OR WARNING LEVELS. THE BROOKS RANGE WILL CAPTURE MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE MOVING OVER NORTHERN ALASKA SO ONLY SCATTERED SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR. THE WEST COAST SOUTH OF
THE SEWARD PENINSULA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND SHOULD RECEIVE MINIMAL
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEK.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HOISTED FOR ZONES 207...209...201 AND ZONE
202. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA...HOWEVER WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST
NORTH OF ICY CAPE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ207-AKZ209.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225.
&&

$$

CCC SEP 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 292203
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
203 PM AKDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL IN THE SHORT
TERM AS WELL AS THE MID TERM. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES EMERGE BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH LARGE AMPLITUDE PATTERN EVOLUTION.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...A 524 DAM LOW 100 NM NORTH OF BARROW CONTINUES TO
ANCHOR THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN
INTERIOR. THE LOW MOVES SOUTH AND EAST AND WILL BE LOCATED OVER
PRUDHOE BAY TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE TROUGH PUSHING OVER THE ALCAN
BORDER. A STRONG RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE EASTERN BERING
SEA AND BUILDS NORTH AND WEST INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA BY MID
WEEK AND OVER SIBERIA BY WEEKS END. A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN SETS
UP THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS AND
RETROGRADES BACK WEST INTO ALASKA AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
SIBERIA. DEEP AND COLD TROUGH SETTLES OVER ALASKA NEXT WEEK.

ON THE SURFACE A 996 MB LOW APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTHWEST OF
BARROW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO AROUND 1005 MB AS IT MOVES NORTH
AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
WEAK LOW FORMS OVER THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY
EVENING AND WILL MOVE INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA AS A 1005 MB LOW AND
BE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS THE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA AND SOUTH OF ICY CAPE WILL DIMINISH TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS TONIGHT. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS TO BUILD IN
THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF ICY CAPE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
WINDS ALONG THE SEWARD PENINSULA WEST OF CAPE ESPENBERG AND
KOTZEBUE SOUND WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 207...209...201 AND WILL BE IN EFFECT TOMORROW
FOR ZONE 202.

SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BRING SEVERAL PERIODS OF SNOW TO THE
NORTH SLOPE AND ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. SNOW TOTALS
IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE MAY REACH OVER 1 FOOT BY
FRIDAY...HOWEVER NO PARTICULAR EVENT IS EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY
OR WARNING LEVELS. THE BROOKS RANGE WILL CAPTURE MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE MOVING OVER NORTHERN ALASKA SO ONLY SCATTERED SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR. THE WEST COAST SOUTH OF
THE SEWARD PENINSULA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND SHOULD RECEIVE MINIMAL
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEK.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HOISTED FOR ZONES 207...209...201 AND ZONE
202. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA...HOWEVER WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST
NORTH OF ICY CAPE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ207-AKZ209.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225.
&&

$$

CCC SEP 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 291011
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
211 AM AKDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS. LONG WAVE TROUGH
PATTERN HAS ESTABLISHED OVER NORTHERN ALASKA AND WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE THROUGH TUE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA ON TUE AND THEN CONTINUES
THROUGH WED NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE BERING SEA WILL BECOMING A BLOCKING
RIDGE THROUGH LATE FRI. MEANWHILE A REINFORCING SHOT FROM ANOTHER
UPPER LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL CRUSH THE RIDGE DOWN AND
ESTABLISH A DEEP TROUGH FROM THE POLE DOWN TO BELOW 45 DEGREES
NORTH BY THU.

IN THE SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH NORTHERN ALASKA.
THE COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS MORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL COLD
FRONT THAN A SURFACE COLD FRONT AT THIS TIME. IT IS ALSO
CAMOUFLAGED VERY WELL IN THE TEMPERATURE FIELD ALSO BECAUSE OF
THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. THIS CLOUD COVER IS
HOLDING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT WHILE POINTS TO THE EAST
MAY BE COLDER BUT LACK OF CLOUD COVER IS THE CAUSE FOR THE
DISPARITY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ABOUT 150 NM N OF POINT LAY WILL ADVANCE ITS
AGENDA THROUGH THE STATE AS ITS FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST. ITS
AGENDA APPEARS TO BE THAT OF COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT INITIALLY
BUT EVENTUALLY MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE LEVEL OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS AS WELL AS PROVIDING AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEK.

WINDS ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL APPROACH GALE FROM KOTZEBUE
NORTHWARD TO POINT LAY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AS
THE INITIAL COLD ADVECTION QUICKLY TURNS TO WARM ADVECTION MON
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ON THE WEST COAST.

HIGH SURF OUT FOR ZONES 201 AND 207 SEEM LEGITIMATE AT THIS POINT
HOWEVER ZONE 202 HAS BECOME MORE UNLIKELY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR IT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ207.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

$$

CF SEP 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 291011
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
211 AM AKDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS. LONG WAVE TROUGH
PATTERN HAS ESTABLISHED OVER NORTHERN ALASKA AND WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE THROUGH TUE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA ON TUE AND THEN CONTINUES
THROUGH WED NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE BERING SEA WILL BECOMING A BLOCKING
RIDGE THROUGH LATE FRI. MEANWHILE A REINFORCING SHOT FROM ANOTHER
UPPER LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL CRUSH THE RIDGE DOWN AND
ESTABLISH A DEEP TROUGH FROM THE POLE DOWN TO BELOW 45 DEGREES
NORTH BY THU.

IN THE SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH NORTHERN ALASKA.
THE COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS MORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL COLD
FRONT THAN A SURFACE COLD FRONT AT THIS TIME. IT IS ALSO
CAMOUFLAGED VERY WELL IN THE TEMPERATURE FIELD ALSO BECAUSE OF
THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. THIS CLOUD COVER IS
HOLDING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT WHILE POINTS TO THE EAST
MAY BE COLDER BUT LACK OF CLOUD COVER IS THE CAUSE FOR THE
DISPARITY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ABOUT 150 NM N OF POINT LAY WILL ADVANCE ITS
AGENDA THROUGH THE STATE AS ITS FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST. ITS
AGENDA APPEARS TO BE THAT OF COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT INITIALLY
BUT EVENTUALLY MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE LEVEL OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS AS WELL AS PROVIDING AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEK.

WINDS ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL APPROACH GALE FROM KOTZEBUE
NORTHWARD TO POINT LAY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AS
THE INITIAL COLD ADVECTION QUICKLY TURNS TO WARM ADVECTION MON
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ON THE WEST COAST.

HIGH SURF OUT FOR ZONES 201 AND 207 SEEM LEGITIMATE AT THIS POINT
HOWEVER ZONE 202 HAS BECOME MORE UNLIKELY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR IT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ207.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

$$

CF SEP 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 282042
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1242 PM AKDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUE TO PRESENT MINIMAL SPREAD
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND ACCEPTABLE SPREAD IN THE MID RANGE AND
LONG RANGE. TRANSITION FROM CURRENT SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER
NORTHERN ALASKA IN FAVOR OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ALASKA
AND RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA IS UNDERWAY.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...A 521 DAM LOW CENTERED 150 NM NORTH OF WRANGELL
ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DIG EAST AND SOUTH TO BE LOCATED 100 NM
NORTHWEST OF BARROW BY MONDAY MORNING AS A 552 DAM RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE BERING SEA. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH
AND MOVE TO THE EAST AND WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE IN THE BERING CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH
AND EAST AND PARKS OVER ST MATTHEW ISLAND AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
PARKS OVER THE ALCAN BORDER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

ON THE SURFACE...A STRONG FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE WEST COAST AND
INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR TODAY AND THROUGH THE WESTERN INTERIOR
INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TONIGHT. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL INTERIOR MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
EASTERN INTERIOR MONDAY EVENING. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WITH HARD TO PIN DOWN
TIMING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW OVER MOST
OF THE NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE ESPECIALLY THE NORTH FACING
SLOPES. SEVERAL SUB ADVISORY SNOW EVENTS THROUGH THE WEEK IN THE
BROOKS RANGE WILL ADD UP BY WEEKS END. EXPECT ONLY SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR...HOWEVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
NORTHWEST FAVORED UP SLOPE AREAS MAY SEE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD SEE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
AS THE SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH. SHOWER ACTIVITY ON WEST COAST
SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA WILL BE MINIMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF
THE SEWARD PENINSULA.

SMALL CRAFT AND GALE FORCE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT HAVE MOVED INTO THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL AS THE SEWARD PENINSULA WEST OF CAPE ESPENBERG AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TROUGH MONDAY. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SEWARD PENINSULA WEST OF CAPE ESPENBERG
AND THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE IN ANTICIPATION OF ELEVATED SURF AND
EXPECTED BEACH EROSION AS WINDS AND WAVE ACTION INCREASE THIS
EVENING FOR ZONES 207 AND 201 AND MONDAY MORNING FOR ZONE 202.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE HOISTED FOR ZONE 207 BEGINNING THIS
EVENING AND FOR ZONE 201 FOR BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING. HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR ZONE 202 BEGINS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ207.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230-
PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

$$

CCC SEP 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 282042
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1242 PM AKDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUE TO PRESENT MINIMAL SPREAD
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND ACCEPTABLE SPREAD IN THE MID RANGE AND
LONG RANGE. TRANSITION FROM CURRENT SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER
NORTHERN ALASKA IN FAVOR OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ALASKA
AND RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA IS UNDERWAY.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...A 521 DAM LOW CENTERED 150 NM NORTH OF WRANGELL
ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DIG EAST AND SOUTH TO BE LOCATED 100 NM
NORTHWEST OF BARROW BY MONDAY MORNING AS A 552 DAM RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE BERING SEA. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH
AND MOVE TO THE EAST AND WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE IN THE BERING CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH
AND EAST AND PARKS OVER ST MATTHEW ISLAND AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
PARKS OVER THE ALCAN BORDER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

ON THE SURFACE...A STRONG FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE WEST COAST AND
INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR TODAY AND THROUGH THE WESTERN INTERIOR
INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TONIGHT. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL INTERIOR MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
EASTERN INTERIOR MONDAY EVENING. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WITH HARD TO PIN DOWN
TIMING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW OVER MOST
OF THE NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE ESPECIALLY THE NORTH FACING
SLOPES. SEVERAL SUB ADVISORY SNOW EVENTS THROUGH THE WEEK IN THE
BROOKS RANGE WILL ADD UP BY WEEKS END. EXPECT ONLY SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR...HOWEVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
NORTHWEST FAVORED UP SLOPE AREAS MAY SEE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD SEE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
AS THE SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH. SHOWER ACTIVITY ON WEST COAST
SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA WILL BE MINIMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF
THE SEWARD PENINSULA.

SMALL CRAFT AND GALE FORCE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT HAVE MOVED INTO THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL AS THE SEWARD PENINSULA WEST OF CAPE ESPENBERG AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TROUGH MONDAY. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SEWARD PENINSULA WEST OF CAPE ESPENBERG
AND THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE IN ANTICIPATION OF ELEVATED SURF AND
EXPECTED BEACH EROSION AS WINDS AND WAVE ACTION INCREASE THIS
EVENING FOR ZONES 207 AND 201 AND MONDAY MORNING FOR ZONE 202.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE HOISTED FOR ZONE 207 BEGINNING THIS
EVENING AND FOR ZONE 201 FOR BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING. HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR ZONE 202 BEGINS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ207.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230-
PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

$$

CCC SEP 14





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities