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000
FXAK69 PAFG 272211
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
211 PM AKDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT EVEN THROUGH THE MID RANGE WITH THE
LATEST RUNS. STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF THE
SHORTWAVES AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
MODELS FOR THE SHORT TERM. THERE IS EVEN SOME CONCENSUS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH THE MODELS MAINTAINING THE LOW AS IT
OSCILLATES AROUND THE ARCTIC WITH RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC AND
A RATHER FAST...AND ACTIVE...WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL
SLOWLY WORK SOUTH INTO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING. A 547 DAM LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
NORTHEAST TO 200NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT BY FRIDAY MORNING. A 510 DAM
LOW OVER 77N 180 WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO 76N 170W BY FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVES TO LIE OVER 168W AND
OVER THE BERING STRAIT. THE LOW CONTINUE SOUTHEAST TO 74N 163W BY
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO LIE FROM OVER BARROW TO
INDIAN MOUNTAIN TO KENAI. AS THE LOW CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TO OVER THE ALCAN BORDER BY
SATURDAY MORNING. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL SPIN OFF THE LOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE OVER THE BERING STRAIT BY SATURDAY MORNING. AT 850
HPA...ZERO ISOTHERM IS APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST COAST THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST. ZERO ISOTHERM WILL LIE FROM
DEADHORSE TO AMBLER TO NOME TO SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ANADYR BY MID
DAY THURSDAY...THEN FROM BARTER TO MANLEY HOT SPRINGS TO
SLEETMUTE TO ST MATTHEW ISLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING. THEN MOVES TO
COVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ALASKA RANGE NORTH BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

SURFACE...WEAK RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AS A 1000MB LOW IN BRISTOL BAY
MOVES EAST INTO THE GU F OF ALASKA. A 995MB LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL MOVE TO NEAR 77N 152W BY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES TO LIE FROM KUPARIK TO ANAKTUVUK PASS TO SHAKTOOLIK
TO ST MATTHEW ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL LIE FROM
MACKENZIE BAY TO BEAVER TO NUNIVAK ISLAND BY LATE THURSDAY AS IT
WEAKENS AND IS PULLED EAST INTO CANADA. A SERIES OF LOWS WILL
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AS IT MOVES OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS. A
1013MB HIGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE FRONT AND MOVE OVER
THE EASTERN BERING SEA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW IN THE HIGH
ARCTIC WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ALOFT APPROACHES THE
NORTHWEST COAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST
BY SATURDAY MORNING.

ARCTIC COAST...A REALLY MIXED BAG OF STUFF GOING ON. AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH FOR A SHORT
DURATION...THEN TAPER DOWN TO 10 TO 20 MPH AS THEY BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN...ESPECIALLY INLAND AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL ON THE COAST BUT WILL BE MODERATED BY THE OPEN WATER ALONG
THE COAST. LOOK FOR A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION AS WELL. 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE BROOKS RANGE ABOVE 1500 FEET OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS...WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME SNOW FALL IT WILL NOT
STICK AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS TIME AROUND.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...FRONT MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN
SEWARD PENINSULA AND BERING STRAIT NOW...SO LOOK FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS 500 HPA HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 545 HPA. A PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT NO SNOW EXPECTED
THIS FAR SOUTH. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS KICKING UP AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SO EXPECT 15 TO 25 MPH FROM THE BERING
STRAIT NORTH TONIGHT...EXCEPT UP TO 35 MPH NEAR POINT HOPE. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY.

INTERIOR...SOME CLEARING THIS EVENING...BUT RIDGE IS PRETTY DIRTY
SO NOT GOING TO CLEAR OUT TO MUCH. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY IT GETS SOME HELP AS MOISTURE SWINGS UP OUT OF
THE GULF AS THAT LOW MOVES TO SOUTH OF YAKUTAT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
BEGIN IN THE EVENING THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING
BEFORE TAPERING OFF OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MAY KICK UP TO 10 TO 20 MPH
ALONG THE FRONT FOR A WHILE NORTH OF FAIRBANKS. GOOD COLD AIR
ADVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES DOWN BEGINNING
FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NORTH AND 30S TO
THE SOUTH. OF COURSE SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS AROUND
FAIRBANKS WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE 20S FOR LOWS. EXPECT SOME
AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING CLEARING BY AROUND NOON.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS
AND WAVES OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO BE
AN ISSUE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WITH NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING WETTING RAINS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THERE CONTINUE TO BE NO CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SOME HEAVY SNOW IN THE BROOKS RANGE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO MELT OFF RAPIDLY AND MAKE IT INTO
THE STREAMS AND RIVERS...SO NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

$$

SDB AUG 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 271100 AAA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
300 AM AKDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT EMBEDDED IN A LIGHT WESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN IS NOW OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...AND WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY EARLY THIS EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND 0.1 TO 0.3 INCHES.

A DEEP UPPER LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR
81N/173W...ABOUT 900 NM NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT...IS PROJECTED
TO MOVE ON A WOBBLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TO ABOUT 50 NM NORTHWEST
OF BARROW BY SUN MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE A RELATIVELY
STRONG FEATURE...ARRIVING ON THE ALASKA WEST COAST THU MORNING
AND MOVING TO THE ALCAN BORDER AND NORTHWESTWARD BY SAT MORNING.
ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA WILL EXPERIENCE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FEATURE AS IT TRAVELS EASTWARD. OVER THE BROOKS RANGE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS THE
COLDER AIR MASS MOVES IN. CURRENT GFS/ECMWF INDICATING LIQUID
QPF OF MAINLY 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC SLOPE AND
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE...AND 0.25 TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER THE EASTERN
ARCTIC SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE. EVENT SNOW TOTALS IN THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE COULD BE AS MUCH AS AROUND 4 INCHES. OVER COASTAL
AREAS...PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SNOW WEST OF BARROW. AREAS SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE WILL
EXPERIENCE RAIN OR SHOWERS WITH THE SHORT WAVE. HEAVIEST EVENT
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST...MAINLY 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY LARGER AMOUNTS.
OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR...EVENT TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
0.10 TO 0.25 INCH.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST COASTS SAT EVENING...MOVING TO THE ALCAN BORDER
AND NORTHWESTWARD BY MON MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER EPISODE OF PRECIPITATION...RAIN SOUTH OF THE BROOKS
RANGE AND SNOW FROM THE BROOKS RANGE NORTH.

THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIPPLE MOVING RAPIDLY
EASTWARD IN A FAST WESTERLY FLOW MON AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT.
CURRENT GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN WEST COAST...NORTHERN
INTERIOR...BROOKS RANGE...AND ARCTIC SLOPE WITH THIS PATTERN.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COULD TRANSIT NORTHERN ALASKA AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM AROUND 300 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST
OF BARROW TO NEAR CAPE SCHMIDT ON THE NORTHEAST SIBERIA COAST. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA AND CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST
BY EARLY THU MORNING...WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA BY
EARLY FRI MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT EXPECTED
ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST AND IN ARCTIC MARINE AREAS WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO WEST OR NORTHWEST AND
DECREASING AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A 995 MB LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC
TO ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHWEST OF BARROW BY SAT EVENING. A 998 MB
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST ALASKA INTERIOR LATE
THU AFTERNOON...MOVING TO THE NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY COAST BY
FRI MORNING.

IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...A
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHOOT RAPIDLY EASTWARD
OUT OF SIBERIA ACROSS THE ARCTIC SLOPE. TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...CURRENT GFS MOVING IT MUCH
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THU AFTERNOON AND MAYBE EARLY THU EVENING
IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NONE. MIN RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT. COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE INTERIOR BEGINNING FRI.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE BROOKS RANGE WITH THE
FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH. NO RIVER ISSUES EXPECTED SINCE THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BE MOSTLY OR ALL SNOW.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

$$

AUG 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 271100 AAA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
300 AM AKDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT EMBEDDED IN A LIGHT WESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN IS NOW OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...AND WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY EARLY THIS EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND 0.1 TO 0.3 INCHES.

A DEEP UPPER LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR
81N/173W...ABOUT 900 NM NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT...IS PROJECTED
TO MOVE ON A WOBBLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TO ABOUT 50 NM NORTHWEST
OF BARROW BY SUN MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE A RELATIVELY
STRONG FEATURE...ARRIVING ON THE ALASKA WEST COAST THU MORNING
AND MOVING TO THE ALCAN BORDER AND NORTHWESTWARD BY SAT MORNING.
ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA WILL EXPERIENCE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FEATURE AS IT TRAVELS EASTWARD. OVER THE BROOKS RANGE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS THE
COLDER AIR MASS MOVES IN. CURRENT GFS/ECMWF INDICATING LIQUID
QPF OF MAINLY 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC SLOPE AND
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE...AND 0.25 TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER THE EASTERN
ARCTIC SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE. EVENT SNOW TOTALS IN THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE COULD BE AS MUCH AS AROUND 4 INCHES. OVER COASTAL
AREAS...PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SNOW WEST OF BARROW. AREAS SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE WILL
EXPERIENCE RAIN OR SHOWERS WITH THE SHORT WAVE. HEAVIEST EVENT
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST...MAINLY 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY LARGER AMOUNTS.
OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR...EVENT TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
0.10 TO 0.25 INCH.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST COASTS SAT EVENING...MOVING TO THE ALCAN BORDER
AND NORTHWESTWARD BY MON MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER EPISODE OF PRECIPITATION...RAIN SOUTH OF THE BROOKS
RANGE AND SNOW FROM THE BROOKS RANGE NORTH.

THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIPPLE MOVING RAPIDLY
EASTWARD IN A FAST WESTERLY FLOW MON AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT.
CURRENT GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN WEST COAST...NORTHERN
INTERIOR...BROOKS RANGE...AND ARCTIC SLOPE WITH THIS PATTERN.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COULD TRANSIT NORTHERN ALASKA AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM AROUND 300 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST
OF BARROW TO NEAR CAPE SCHMIDT ON THE NORTHEAST SIBERIA COAST. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA AND CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST
BY EARLY THU MORNING...WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA BY
EARLY FRI MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT EXPECTED
ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST AND IN ARCTIC MARINE AREAS WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO WEST OR NORTHWEST AND
DECREASING AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A 995 MB LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC
TO ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHWEST OF BARROW BY SAT EVENING. A 998 MB
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST ALASKA INTERIOR LATE
THU AFTERNOON...MOVING TO THE NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY COAST BY
FRI MORNING.

IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...A
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHOOT RAPIDLY EASTWARD
OUT OF SIBERIA ACROSS THE ARCTIC SLOPE. TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...CURRENT GFS MOVING IT MUCH
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THU AFTERNOON AND MAYBE EARLY THU EVENING
IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NONE. MIN RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT. COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE INTERIOR BEGINNING FRI.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE BROOKS RANGE WITH THE
FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH. NO RIVER ISSUES EXPECTED SINCE THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BE MOSTLY OR ALL SNOW.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

$$

AUG 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 271020
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
220 AM AKDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT EMBEDDED IN A LIGHT WESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN IS NOW OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...AND WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY EARLY THIS EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND 0.1 TO 0.3 INCHES.

A DEEP UPPER LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR
81N/173W...ABOUT 900 NM NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT...IS PROJECTED
TO MOVE ON A WOBBLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TO ABOUT 50 NM NORTHWEST
OF BARROW BY SUN MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE A RELATIVELY
STRONG FEATURE...ARRIVING ON THE ALASKA WEST COAST THU MORNING
AND MOVING TO THE ALCAN BORDER AND NORTHWESTWARD BY SAT MORNING.
ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA WILL EXPERIENCE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FEATURE AS IT TRAVELS EASTWARD. OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND THE
ARCTIC SLOPE...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW AS A SUBSTANTIALLY
COLDER AIR MASS BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. GFS/NAM EVENT
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF IS MAINLY 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH OVER THE
WESTERN ARCTIC SLOPE AND WESTERN BROOKS RANGE...AND 0.25 TO
AROUND 1 INCH OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE.
EVENT SNOW TOTALS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 4
INCHES OR MORE...WITH SMALLER AMOUNTS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS.
AREAS SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN OR SHOWERS
WITH THE SHORT WAVE. HEAVIEST EVENT TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST...MAINLY 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY LARGER AMOUNTS. OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR...EVENT
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST COASTS SAT EVENING...MOVING TO THE ALCAN BORDER
AND NORTHWESTWARD BY MON MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER EPISODE OF PRECIPITATION...RAIN SOUTH OF THE BROOKS
RANGE AND SNOW FROM THE BROOKS RANGE NORTH.

THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIPPLE MOVING RAPIDLY
EASTWARD IN A FAST WESTERLY FLOW MON AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT.
CURRENT GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN WEST COAST...NORTHERN
INTERIOR...BROOKS RANGE...AND ARCTIC SLOPE WITH THIS PATTERN.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COULD TRANSIT NORTHERN ALASKA AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM AROUND 300 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST
OF BARROW TO NEAR CAPE SCHMIDT ON THE NORTHEAST SIBERIA COAST. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA AND CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST
BY EARLY THU MORNING...WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA BY
EARLY FRI MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT EXPECTED
ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST AND IN ARCTIC MARINE AREAS WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO WEST OR NORTHWEST AND
DECREASING AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A 995 MB LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC
TO ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHWEST OF BARROW BY SAT EVENING. A 998 MB
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST ALASKA INTERIOR LATE
THU AFTERNOON...MOVING TO THE NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY COAST BY
FRI MORNING.

IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...A
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHOOT RAPIDLY EASTWARD
OUT OF SIBERIA ACROSS THE ARCTIC SLOPE. TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...CURRENT GFS MOVING IT MUCH
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THU AFTERNOON AND MAYBE EARLY THU EVENING
IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NONE. MIN RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT. COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE INTERIOR BEGINNING FRI.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE BROOKS RANGE WITH THE
FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH. NO RIVER ISSUES EXPECTED SINCE THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BE MOSTLY OR ALL SNOW.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

&&

$$

RF AUG 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 271020
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
220 AM AKDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT EMBEDDED IN A LIGHT WESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN IS NOW OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...AND WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY EARLY THIS EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND 0.1 TO 0.3 INCHES.

A DEEP UPPER LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR
81N/173W...ABOUT 900 NM NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT...IS PROJECTED
TO MOVE ON A WOBBLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TO ABOUT 50 NM NORTHWEST
OF BARROW BY SUN MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE A RELATIVELY
STRONG FEATURE...ARRIVING ON THE ALASKA WEST COAST THU MORNING
AND MOVING TO THE ALCAN BORDER AND NORTHWESTWARD BY SAT MORNING.
ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA WILL EXPERIENCE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FEATURE AS IT TRAVELS EASTWARD. OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND THE
ARCTIC SLOPE...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW AS A SUBSTANTIALLY
COLDER AIR MASS BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. GFS/NAM EVENT
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF IS MAINLY 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH OVER THE
WESTERN ARCTIC SLOPE AND WESTERN BROOKS RANGE...AND 0.25 TO
AROUND 1 INCH OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE.
EVENT SNOW TOTALS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 4
INCHES OR MORE...WITH SMALLER AMOUNTS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS.
AREAS SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN OR SHOWERS
WITH THE SHORT WAVE. HEAVIEST EVENT TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST...MAINLY 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY LARGER AMOUNTS. OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR...EVENT
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST COASTS SAT EVENING...MOVING TO THE ALCAN BORDER
AND NORTHWESTWARD BY MON MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER EPISODE OF PRECIPITATION...RAIN SOUTH OF THE BROOKS
RANGE AND SNOW FROM THE BROOKS RANGE NORTH.

THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIPPLE MOVING RAPIDLY
EASTWARD IN A FAST WESTERLY FLOW MON AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT.
CURRENT GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN WEST COAST...NORTHERN
INTERIOR...BROOKS RANGE...AND ARCTIC SLOPE WITH THIS PATTERN.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COULD TRANSIT NORTHERN ALASKA AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM AROUND 300 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST
OF BARROW TO NEAR CAPE SCHMIDT ON THE NORTHEAST SIBERIA COAST. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA AND CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST
BY EARLY THU MORNING...WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA BY
EARLY FRI MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT EXPECTED
ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST AND IN ARCTIC MARINE AREAS WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO WEST OR NORTHWEST AND
DECREASING AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A 995 MB LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC
TO ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHWEST OF BARROW BY SAT EVENING. A 998 MB
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST ALASKA INTERIOR LATE
THU AFTERNOON...MOVING TO THE NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY COAST BY
FRI MORNING.

IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...A
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHOOT RAPIDLY EASTWARD
OUT OF SIBERIA ACROSS THE ARCTIC SLOPE. TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...CURRENT GFS MOVING IT MUCH
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THU AFTERNOON AND MAYBE EARLY THU EVENING
IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NONE. MIN RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT. COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE INTERIOR BEGINNING FRI.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE BROOKS RANGE WITH THE
FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH. NO RIVER ISSUES EXPECTED SINCE THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BE MOSTLY OR ALL SNOW.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

&&

$$

RF AUG 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 271020
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
220 AM AKDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT EMBEDDED IN A LIGHT WESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN IS NOW OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...AND WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY EARLY THIS EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND 0.1 TO 0.3 INCHES.

A DEEP UPPER LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR
81N/173W...ABOUT 900 NM NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT...IS PROJECTED
TO MOVE ON A WOBBLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TO ABOUT 50 NM NORTHWEST
OF BARROW BY SUN MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE A RELATIVELY
STRONG FEATURE...ARRIVING ON THE ALASKA WEST COAST THU MORNING
AND MOVING TO THE ALCAN BORDER AND NORTHWESTWARD BY SAT MORNING.
ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA WILL EXPERIENCE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FEATURE AS IT TRAVELS EASTWARD. OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND THE
ARCTIC SLOPE...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW AS A SUBSTANTIALLY
COLDER AIR MASS BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. GFS/NAM EVENT
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF IS MAINLY 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH OVER THE
WESTERN ARCTIC SLOPE AND WESTERN BROOKS RANGE...AND 0.25 TO
AROUND 1 INCH OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE.
EVENT SNOW TOTALS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 4
INCHES OR MORE...WITH SMALLER AMOUNTS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS.
AREAS SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN OR SHOWERS
WITH THE SHORT WAVE. HEAVIEST EVENT TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST...MAINLY 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY LARGER AMOUNTS. OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR...EVENT
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST COASTS SAT EVENING...MOVING TO THE ALCAN BORDER
AND NORTHWESTWARD BY MON MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER EPISODE OF PRECIPITATION...RAIN SOUTH OF THE BROOKS
RANGE AND SNOW FROM THE BROOKS RANGE NORTH.

THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIPPLE MOVING RAPIDLY
EASTWARD IN A FAST WESTERLY FLOW MON AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT.
CURRENT GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN WEST COAST...NORTHERN
INTERIOR...BROOKS RANGE...AND ARCTIC SLOPE WITH THIS PATTERN.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COULD TRANSIT NORTHERN ALASKA AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM AROUND 300 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST
OF BARROW TO NEAR CAPE SCHMIDT ON THE NORTHEAST SIBERIA COAST. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA AND CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST
BY EARLY THU MORNING...WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA BY
EARLY FRI MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT EXPECTED
ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST AND IN ARCTIC MARINE AREAS WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO WEST OR NORTHWEST AND
DECREASING AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A 995 MB LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC
TO ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHWEST OF BARROW BY SAT EVENING. A 998 MB
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST ALASKA INTERIOR LATE
THU AFTERNOON...MOVING TO THE NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY COAST BY
FRI MORNING.

IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...A
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHOOT RAPIDLY EASTWARD
OUT OF SIBERIA ACROSS THE ARCTIC SLOPE. TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...CURRENT GFS MOVING IT MUCH
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THU AFTERNOON AND MAYBE EARLY THU EVENING
IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NONE. MIN RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT. COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE INTERIOR BEGINNING FRI.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE BROOKS RANGE WITH THE
FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH. NO RIVER ISSUES EXPECTED SINCE THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BE MOSTLY OR ALL SNOW.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

&&

$$

RF AUG 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 271020
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
220 AM AKDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT EMBEDDED IN A LIGHT WESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN IS NOW OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...AND WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY EARLY THIS EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND 0.1 TO 0.3 INCHES.

A DEEP UPPER LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR
81N/173W...ABOUT 900 NM NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT...IS PROJECTED
TO MOVE ON A WOBBLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TO ABOUT 50 NM NORTHWEST
OF BARROW BY SUN MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE A RELATIVELY
STRONG FEATURE...ARRIVING ON THE ALASKA WEST COAST THU MORNING
AND MOVING TO THE ALCAN BORDER AND NORTHWESTWARD BY SAT MORNING.
ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA WILL EXPERIENCE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FEATURE AS IT TRAVELS EASTWARD. OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND THE
ARCTIC SLOPE...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW AS A SUBSTANTIALLY
COLDER AIR MASS BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. GFS/NAM EVENT
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF IS MAINLY 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH OVER THE
WESTERN ARCTIC SLOPE AND WESTERN BROOKS RANGE...AND 0.25 TO
AROUND 1 INCH OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE.
EVENT SNOW TOTALS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 4
INCHES OR MORE...WITH SMALLER AMOUNTS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS.
AREAS SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN OR SHOWERS
WITH THE SHORT WAVE. HEAVIEST EVENT TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST...MAINLY 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY LARGER AMOUNTS. OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR...EVENT
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST COASTS SAT EVENING...MOVING TO THE ALCAN BORDER
AND NORTHWESTWARD BY MON MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER EPISODE OF PRECIPITATION...RAIN SOUTH OF THE BROOKS
RANGE AND SNOW FROM THE BROOKS RANGE NORTH.

THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIPPLE MOVING RAPIDLY
EASTWARD IN A FAST WESTERLY FLOW MON AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT.
CURRENT GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN WEST COAST...NORTHERN
INTERIOR...BROOKS RANGE...AND ARCTIC SLOPE WITH THIS PATTERN.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COULD TRANSIT NORTHERN ALASKA AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM AROUND 300 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST
OF BARROW TO NEAR CAPE SCHMIDT ON THE NORTHEAST SIBERIA COAST. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA AND CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST
BY EARLY THU MORNING...WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA BY
EARLY FRI MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT EXPECTED
ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST AND IN ARCTIC MARINE AREAS WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO WEST OR NORTHWEST AND
DECREASING AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A 995 MB LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC
TO ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHWEST OF BARROW BY SAT EVENING. A 998 MB
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST ALASKA INTERIOR LATE
THU AFTERNOON...MOVING TO THE NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY COAST BY
FRI MORNING.

IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...A
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHOOT RAPIDLY EASTWARD
OUT OF SIBERIA ACROSS THE ARCTIC SLOPE. TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...CURRENT GFS MOVING IT MUCH
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THU AFTERNOON AND MAYBE EARLY THU EVENING
IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NONE. MIN RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT. COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE INTERIOR BEGINNING FRI.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE BROOKS RANGE WITH THE
FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH. NO RIVER ISSUES EXPECTED SINCE THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BE MOSTLY OR ALL SNOW.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

&&

$$

RF AUG 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 262016
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1216 PM AKDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO 78 HOURS...BUT GFS IS TRYING TO
PUSH THINGS THROUGH JUST A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS.
WILL GO WITH A BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM LEANING ON THE ECMWF WITH
A NUDGE TOWARD THE GFS. EXTENDED FORECASTS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
LITTLE CONSENSUS SO WILL LEAN ON THE WPC GUIDANCE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...545 DAM LOW OVER WAINWRIGHT WILL MOVE SOUTH
OVER THE BROOKS RANGE THIS EVENING...THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE SLOWLY
EAST TO BE OVER MACKENZIE BAY BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A 551 DAM
LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
YUKON THIS EVENING. A 549 DAM LOW OVER 60N 180 WILL MOVE OVER
WESTERN BRISTOL BAY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUE SOUTHEAST
TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY THURSDAY MORNING. A 511 DAM LOW
OVER 80N 180 WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE SPINS
SOUTHEAST TO BE OVER THE DATELINE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS
THE LOW DRIFTS TO 77N 170W THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO LIE OVER
170W BY THURSDAY MORNING...MOVING OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AND PUSHING 530 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE ARCTIC
COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TO BE OVER 75N 162W BY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SHORTWAVE LYING OVER BARROW TO BETTLES TO
ANCHORAGE AS IT CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST EXITING THE STATE SATURDAY
MORNING. THE LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. AT 850 HPA...SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES THE ZERO ISOTHERM WELL NORTH OF
THE ARCTIC COAST. ZERO ISOTHERM WILL PUSH SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST
COAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST. ZERO
ISOTHERM WILL LIE FROM DEADHORSE TO AMBLER TO NOME BY MID DAY
THURSDAY...THEN FROM BARTER TO MANLEY HOT SPRINGS TO MCGRATH TO
NUNIVAK ISLAND TO THE GULF OF ANADYR BY FRIDAY MORNING. THEN MOVES
TO COVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ALASKA RANGE NORTH BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR IS
SHIFTING NORTH OVER THE BROOKS RANGE THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE TANANA AND UPPER YUKON VALLEYS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. 1004MB LOW IN BRISTOL BAY WILL SPREAD
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NORTH OVER THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH
SATURDAY. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL LIE FROM DEADHORSE
TO INDIAN MOUNTAIN TO GALENA TO TO ST MATTHEW ISLAND...AND FROM
MACKENZIE BAY TO BEAVER TO NUNIVAK ISLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING AS IT
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT DRAGS INTO CANADA.

ARCTIC COAST...RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL OUT TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TO
THE WEST PUSHES IN. A LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT THEN COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL START TO PUSH TEMPERATURES DOWN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OPEN WATER WILL MODERATE IT A LITTLE BUT COOLER WILL BE THE RULE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 500 HPA HEIGHTS DROP TO THE 528 DAM RANGE
SO EXPECT SOLID PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION IN
THE COASTAL AREAS...BUT THE BROOKS RANGE COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL KICK UP A LITTLE AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SO EXPECT A PERIOD OF 15 TO 30 MPH
WINDS...THEN A PERIOD OF 10 TO 20 MPH WEST WINDS POST FRONT.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...FRONT PUSHES TO THE NORTHERN
SEWARD PENINSULA AND BERING STRAIT EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...SO
LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AS 500 HPA HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 545
HPA. MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY AND COVER MOST OF THE AREA BY MID DAY
FRIDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLY AROUND POINT HOPE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW IN BRISTOL BAY WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE
LOWER YUKON VALLEY. AS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH MOVES SOUTH EXPECT
WINDS TO PICK UP IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 10 TO 25 MPH...EXCEPT UP TO 35 MPH NEAR POINT HOPE.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND THE ZERO
ISOTHERM AT 850 HPA FOLLOWS ALONG. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL 5
TO 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY
REBOUNDING.

INTERIOR...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE BROOKS RANGE THIS
EVENING AND EVENTUALLY WORK EAST OUT OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING SOME SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA...BUT
STILL EXPECT A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS TO BE FLOATING AROUND AS
A WEAK DIRTY RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT...BUT SOME GUSTS TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE AS THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE SWINGS NORTH OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.
CONDITIONS REMAIN SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE SO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
REMAINS POSSIBLE. WITH WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND LIGHT WINDS
THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE CLEAR BEFORE NOON IF WE DO SEE ANY. WITH COLD FRONT NOW
FORECAST TO PUSH SO FAR SOUTH EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL LATER
IN THE WEEK WITH QUITE A FEW AREAS SEEING LOWS IN THE 30S.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...AS FRONT PUSHES EAST
EXPECT SOME MODERATE NORTH WINDS...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL
BE 30 MPH OR LESS WITH A SHORT FETCH AND DURATION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUED WET AND COOL SO NO CONCERNS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED SO NO CONCERNS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

&&

$$

SDB AUG 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 262016
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1216 PM AKDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO 78 HOURS...BUT GFS IS TRYING TO
PUSH THINGS THROUGH JUST A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS.
WILL GO WITH A BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM LEANING ON THE ECMWF WITH
A NUDGE TOWARD THE GFS. EXTENDED FORECASTS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
LITTLE CONSENSUS SO WILL LEAN ON THE WPC GUIDANCE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...545 DAM LOW OVER WAINWRIGHT WILL MOVE SOUTH
OVER THE BROOKS RANGE THIS EVENING...THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE SLOWLY
EAST TO BE OVER MACKENZIE BAY BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A 551 DAM
LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
YUKON THIS EVENING. A 549 DAM LOW OVER 60N 180 WILL MOVE OVER
WESTERN BRISTOL BAY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUE SOUTHEAST
TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY THURSDAY MORNING. A 511 DAM LOW
OVER 80N 180 WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE SPINS
SOUTHEAST TO BE OVER THE DATELINE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS
THE LOW DRIFTS TO 77N 170W THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO LIE OVER
170W BY THURSDAY MORNING...MOVING OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AND PUSHING 530 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE ARCTIC
COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TO BE OVER 75N 162W BY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SHORTWAVE LYING OVER BARROW TO BETTLES TO
ANCHORAGE AS IT CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST EXITING THE STATE SATURDAY
MORNING. THE LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. AT 850 HPA...SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES THE ZERO ISOTHERM WELL NORTH OF
THE ARCTIC COAST. ZERO ISOTHERM WILL PUSH SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST
COAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST. ZERO
ISOTHERM WILL LIE FROM DEADHORSE TO AMBLER TO NOME BY MID DAY
THURSDAY...THEN FROM BARTER TO MANLEY HOT SPRINGS TO MCGRATH TO
NUNIVAK ISLAND TO THE GULF OF ANADYR BY FRIDAY MORNING. THEN MOVES
TO COVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ALASKA RANGE NORTH BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR IS
SHIFTING NORTH OVER THE BROOKS RANGE THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE TANANA AND UPPER YUKON VALLEYS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. 1004MB LOW IN BRISTOL BAY WILL SPREAD
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NORTH OVER THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH
SATURDAY. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL LIE FROM DEADHORSE
TO INDIAN MOUNTAIN TO GALENA TO TO ST MATTHEW ISLAND...AND FROM
MACKENZIE BAY TO BEAVER TO NUNIVAK ISLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING AS IT
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT DRAGS INTO CANADA.

ARCTIC COAST...RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL OUT TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TO
THE WEST PUSHES IN. A LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT THEN COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL START TO PUSH TEMPERATURES DOWN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OPEN WATER WILL MODERATE IT A LITTLE BUT COOLER WILL BE THE RULE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 500 HPA HEIGHTS DROP TO THE 528 DAM RANGE
SO EXPECT SOLID PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION IN
THE COASTAL AREAS...BUT THE BROOKS RANGE COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL KICK UP A LITTLE AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SO EXPECT A PERIOD OF 15 TO 30 MPH
WINDS...THEN A PERIOD OF 10 TO 20 MPH WEST WINDS POST FRONT.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...FRONT PUSHES TO THE NORTHERN
SEWARD PENINSULA AND BERING STRAIT EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...SO
LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AS 500 HPA HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 545
HPA. MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY AND COVER MOST OF THE AREA BY MID DAY
FRIDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLY AROUND POINT HOPE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW IN BRISTOL BAY WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE
LOWER YUKON VALLEY. AS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH MOVES SOUTH EXPECT
WINDS TO PICK UP IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 10 TO 25 MPH...EXCEPT UP TO 35 MPH NEAR POINT HOPE.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND THE ZERO
ISOTHERM AT 850 HPA FOLLOWS ALONG. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL 5
TO 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY
REBOUNDING.

INTERIOR...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE BROOKS RANGE THIS
EVENING AND EVENTUALLY WORK EAST OUT OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING SOME SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA...BUT
STILL EXPECT A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS TO BE FLOATING AROUND AS
A WEAK DIRTY RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT...BUT SOME GUSTS TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE AS THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE SWINGS NORTH OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.
CONDITIONS REMAIN SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE SO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
REMAINS POSSIBLE. WITH WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND LIGHT WINDS
THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE CLEAR BEFORE NOON IF WE DO SEE ANY. WITH COLD FRONT NOW
FORECAST TO PUSH SO FAR SOUTH EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL LATER
IN THE WEEK WITH QUITE A FEW AREAS SEEING LOWS IN THE 30S.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...AS FRONT PUSHES EAST
EXPECT SOME MODERATE NORTH WINDS...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL
BE 30 MPH OR LESS WITH A SHORT FETCH AND DURATION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUED WET AND COOL SO NO CONCERNS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED SO NO CONCERNS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

&&

$$

SDB AUG 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 260833
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1233 AM AKDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST
OVER THE NORTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A DEEP UPPER
LOW NEAR 80N/158E IS PROGGED TO TAKE A WOBBLY COURSE TO
75N/163W...ABOUT 350 NM NORTH NORTHWEST OF BARROW...BY FRI
AFTERNOON. THE 26/00Z GFS AND ECMWF RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW OUT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. BEYOND
FRIDAY...POSITIONAL DIFFERENCES INCREASE BUT BOTH MODELS INDICATE
THAT THIS POLAR VORTEX WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE. MEAN OF
GFS/ECMWF POSITIONS FOR SUN AFTERNOON PUTS THE CENTER NEAR
75N/158W...ABOUT 400 NM NORTH OF BARROW. THE OUTER EDGE OF THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST ALASKA COAST
WED AFTERNOON...AND EXPAND OVER THE WEST COAST..ARCTIC COAST...AND
THE NORTHWEST ALASKA INTERIOR BY THU AFTERNOON. BY FRI AFTERNOON
ALMOST ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA WILL BE COVERED BY THE EXPANSIVE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE VORTEX. A SHORT WAVE WAVE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE VORTEX WILL ARRIVE ON THE WEST AND NORTHWEST COASTS THU
MORNING AND MOVE EASTWARD TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY FRI EVENING. THE
VORTEX WILL BRING A COLDER AIR MASS TO ALMOST ALL OF NORTHERN BY
FRI. THE INTERIOR AREAS...WHICH HAVE SEEN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE MONTH OF AUGUST...WILL LIKELY SEE
TEMPERATURES COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRI.

A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVER THE MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR THOUGH THU. MANY PARTS OF THE INTERIOR WILL SEE CONTINUED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

OVER THE ARCTIC AREAS...A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO
THE WESTERN BEAUFORT SEA AND THE CHUKCHI SEA BY WED MORNING...
AND TO THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST BY THU MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME BEGINNING SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. A PERIOD OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.

OVER THE WEST COAST...A PERIOD OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONT...WED EVENING OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS AND LATER WED
NIGHT OR THU MORNING ELSEWHERE ON THE WEST COAST.

A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT WED NIGHT OR THU
MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR...AND DURING THE DAY THU
ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MIN RH IN THE INTERIOR WILL BE ABOVE 40 PERCENT
TODAY THROUGH THU. LOCAL SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE
IN ALASKA RANGE PASSES WED AND WED NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

RF AUG 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 260833
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1233 AM AKDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST
OVER THE NORTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A DEEP UPPER
LOW NEAR 80N/158E IS PROGGED TO TAKE A WOBBLY COURSE TO
75N/163W...ABOUT 350 NM NORTH NORTHWEST OF BARROW...BY FRI
AFTERNOON. THE 26/00Z GFS AND ECMWF RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW OUT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. BEYOND
FRIDAY...POSITIONAL DIFFERENCES INCREASE BUT BOTH MODELS INDICATE
THAT THIS POLAR VORTEX WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE. MEAN OF
GFS/ECMWF POSITIONS FOR SUN AFTERNOON PUTS THE CENTER NEAR
75N/158W...ABOUT 400 NM NORTH OF BARROW. THE OUTER EDGE OF THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST ALASKA COAST
WED AFTERNOON...AND EXPAND OVER THE WEST COAST..ARCTIC COAST...AND
THE NORTHWEST ALASKA INTERIOR BY THU AFTERNOON. BY FRI AFTERNOON
ALMOST ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA WILL BE COVERED BY THE EXPANSIVE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE VORTEX. A SHORT WAVE WAVE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE VORTEX WILL ARRIVE ON THE WEST AND NORTHWEST COASTS THU
MORNING AND MOVE EASTWARD TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY FRI EVENING. THE
VORTEX WILL BRING A COLDER AIR MASS TO ALMOST ALL OF NORTHERN BY
FRI. THE INTERIOR AREAS...WHICH HAVE SEEN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE MONTH OF AUGUST...WILL LIKELY SEE
TEMPERATURES COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRI.

A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVER THE MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR THOUGH THU. MANY PARTS OF THE INTERIOR WILL SEE CONTINUED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

OVER THE ARCTIC AREAS...A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO
THE WESTERN BEAUFORT SEA AND THE CHUKCHI SEA BY WED MORNING...
AND TO THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST BY THU MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME BEGINNING SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. A PERIOD OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.

OVER THE WEST COAST...A PERIOD OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONT...WED EVENING OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS AND LATER WED
NIGHT OR THU MORNING ELSEWHERE ON THE WEST COAST.

A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT WED NIGHT OR THU
MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR...AND DURING THE DAY THU
ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MIN RH IN THE INTERIOR WILL BE ABOVE 40 PERCENT
TODAY THROUGH THU. LOCAL SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE
IN ALASKA RANGE PASSES WED AND WED NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

RF AUG 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 252043
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1243 PM AKDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO 60 HOURS. MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A
BIT IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS SO AGREE WITH HPC ON USING THE ECMWF
IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...531 DAM LOW NEAR 80N 150E WILL MOVE EAST. 545
DAM LOW OVER COOK INLET WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN OVER YAKUTAT BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN DISSIPATE
AS IT MOVES EAST INTO CANADA. A 547 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
WRANGEL ISLAND TODAY AND MOVE OVER POINT LAY THIS EVENING WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF ANADYR...THE LOW WILL
MOVE OVER BARROW BY TUESDAY MORNING THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
OVER THE ARCTIC COAST. A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE ALCAN BORDER WILL
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. A 515 DAM LOW WILL MOVE TO 80N 180 BY LATE
TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO 77N 174 BY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. AT 850 HPA...ZERO
ISOTHERM STAYS NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN
MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST COAST EARLY THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH IT WILL LIE FROM DEADHORSE TO AMBLER TO BREVIG MISSION BY
LATE THURSDAY...THEN FROM BARTER TO BETTLES TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
BY MID DAY FRIDAY.

SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY NORTH TODAY TO LIE OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND THE
UPPER YUKON VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND THE EASTERN
ALASKA RANGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A 998MB LOW WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHWEST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF BARROW ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING EAST OF BARROW TO NUIQSUT BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO KOTZEBUE TO NOME TO
SOUTH OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM EAST OF BARTER ISLAND TO BETTLES TO KALTAG TO ST
MATTHEW ISLAND. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ORIENTS
EAST TO WEST AND DRAGS EAST INTO CANADA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A
1008MB LOW SOUTHWEST OF ATTU WILL MOVE TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN EAST TO KODIAK ISLAND BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY
NIGHT.

ARCTIC COAST...WITH RIDGE OVER THE ARCTIC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE INTERIOR EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH THEN WEST AS THE
FRONT DROPS OUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN FRONT OF THE SYSTEM...BUT
THAT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS 500 HPA HEIGHTS DROP TO THE 528 DAM
RANGE. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH AND POST FRONT COULD BE IN
SOLID FORM BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AS GROUND
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL TOO WARM.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...NORTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA...KOBUK
AND NOATAK AREAS ARE SIMILAR TO THE ARCTIC COAST SCENARIO.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME COOLING AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF GALENA AS IT FLATTENS OUT.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND
EAST TONIGHT BUT EXPECT SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH
MID DAY TUESDAY. WEAK RIDGE WILL PUSH OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO HAVE TOO MUCH IMPACT EXCEPT TO
HELP BREAK UP THE CLOUDS A LITTLE IN THE LOWER YUKON DELTA
TONIGHT. LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN
AREAS...OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM THE BERING STRAIT NORTH AS THE
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREAS WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 25 MPH
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND POINT HOPE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.

INTERIOR...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY AND WILL HANG UP IN THE BROOKS RANGE AND UPPER YUKON TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST
OF THE AREA AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. NOT MUCH EXPECTED PRECIPITATION WISE...BUT SOME AREAS
NORTH OF FAIRBANKS COULD SEE UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING
AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH BUT EXPECT ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IF ANYTHING DOES KICK OFF. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST
OF THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE ALASKA
RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...SOME MODERATE NORTH WINDS
WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE COAST LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT WINDS
SHOULD BE 25 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SDB AUG 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 252043
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1243 PM AKDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO 60 HOURS. MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A
BIT IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS SO AGREE WITH HPC ON USING THE ECMWF
IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...531 DAM LOW NEAR 80N 150E WILL MOVE EAST. 545
DAM LOW OVER COOK INLET WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN OVER YAKUTAT BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN DISSIPATE
AS IT MOVES EAST INTO CANADA. A 547 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
WRANGEL ISLAND TODAY AND MOVE OVER POINT LAY THIS EVENING WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF ANADYR...THE LOW WILL
MOVE OVER BARROW BY TUESDAY MORNING THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
OVER THE ARCTIC COAST. A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE ALCAN BORDER WILL
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. A 515 DAM LOW WILL MOVE TO 80N 180 BY LATE
TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO 77N 174 BY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. AT 850 HPA...ZERO
ISOTHERM STAYS NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN
MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST COAST EARLY THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH IT WILL LIE FROM DEADHORSE TO AMBLER TO BREVIG MISSION BY
LATE THURSDAY...THEN FROM BARTER TO BETTLES TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
BY MID DAY FRIDAY.

SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY NORTH TODAY TO LIE OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND THE
UPPER YUKON VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND THE EASTERN
ALASKA RANGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A 998MB LOW WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHWEST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF BARROW ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING EAST OF BARROW TO NUIQSUT BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO KOTZEBUE TO NOME TO
SOUTH OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM EAST OF BARTER ISLAND TO BETTLES TO KALTAG TO ST
MATTHEW ISLAND. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ORIENTS
EAST TO WEST AND DRAGS EAST INTO CANADA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A
1008MB LOW SOUTHWEST OF ATTU WILL MOVE TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN EAST TO KODIAK ISLAND BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY
NIGHT.

ARCTIC COAST...WITH RIDGE OVER THE ARCTIC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE INTERIOR EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH THEN WEST AS THE
FRONT DROPS OUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN FRONT OF THE SYSTEM...BUT
THAT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS 500 HPA HEIGHTS DROP TO THE 528 DAM
RANGE. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH AND POST FRONT COULD BE IN
SOLID FORM BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AS GROUND
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL TOO WARM.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...NORTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA...KOBUK
AND NOATAK AREAS ARE SIMILAR TO THE ARCTIC COAST SCENARIO.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME COOLING AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF GALENA AS IT FLATTENS OUT.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND
EAST TONIGHT BUT EXPECT SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH
MID DAY TUESDAY. WEAK RIDGE WILL PUSH OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO HAVE TOO MUCH IMPACT EXCEPT TO
HELP BREAK UP THE CLOUDS A LITTLE IN THE LOWER YUKON DELTA
TONIGHT. LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN
AREAS...OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM THE BERING STRAIT NORTH AS THE
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREAS WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 25 MPH
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND POINT HOPE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.

INTERIOR...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY AND WILL HANG UP IN THE BROOKS RANGE AND UPPER YUKON TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST
OF THE AREA AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. NOT MUCH EXPECTED PRECIPITATION WISE...BUT SOME AREAS
NORTH OF FAIRBANKS COULD SEE UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING
AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH BUT EXPECT ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IF ANYTHING DOES KICK OFF. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST
OF THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE ALASKA
RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...SOME MODERATE NORTH WINDS
WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE COAST LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT WINDS
SHOULD BE 25 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SDB AUG 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 252043 CCA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1243 PM AKDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO 60 HOURS. MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A
BIT IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS SO AGREE WITH HPC ON USING THE ECMWF
IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...531 DAM LOW NEAR 80N 150W WILL MOVE EAST.
545 DAM LOW OVER COOK INLET WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN OVER YAKUTAT BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN DISSIPATE
AS IT MOVES EAST INTO CANADA. A 547 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
WRANGEL ISLAND TODAY AND MOVE OVER POINT LAY THIS EVENING WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF ANADYR...THE LOW WILL
MOVE OVER BARROW BY TUESDAY MORNING THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
OVER THE ARCTIC COAST. A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE ALCAN BORDER WILL
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. A 515 DAM LOW WILL MOVE TO 80N 180 BY LATE
TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO 77N 174W BY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. AT 850 HPA...ZERO
ISOTHERM STAYS NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN
MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST COAST EARLY THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH IT WILL LIE FROM DEADHORSE TO AMBLER TO BREVIG MISSION BY
LATE THURSDAY...THEN FROM BARTER TO BETTLES TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
BY MID DAY FRIDAY.

SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY NORTH TODAY TO LIE OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND THE
UPPER YUKON VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND THE EASTERN
ALASKA RANGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A 998MB LOW WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHWEST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF BARROW ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING EAST OF BARROW TO NUIQSUT BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO KOTZEBUE TO NOME TO
SOUTH OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM EAST OF BARTER ISLAND TO BETTLES TO KALTAG TO ST
MATTHEW ISLAND. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ORIENTS
EAST TO WEST AND DRAGS EAST INTO CANADA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A
1008MB LOW SOUTHWEST OF ATTU WILL MOVE TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN EAST TO KODIAK ISLAND BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY
NIGHT.

ARCTIC COAST...WITH RIDGE OVER THE ARCTIC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE INTERIOR EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH THEN WEST AS THE
FRONT DROPS OUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN FRONT OF THE SYSTEM...BUT
THAT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS 500 HPA HEIGHTS DROP TO THE 528 DAM
RANGE. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH AND POST FRONT COULD BE IN
SOLID FORM BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AS GROUND
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL TOO WARM.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...NORTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA...KOBUK
AND NOATAK AREAS ARE SIMILAR TO THE ARCTIC COAST SCENARIO.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME COOLING AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF GALENA AS IT FLATTENS OUT.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND
EAST TONIGHT BUT EXPECT SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH
MID DAY TUESDAY. WEAK RIDGE WILL PUSH OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO HAVE TOO MUCH IMPACT EXCEPT TO
HELP BREAK UP THE CLOUDS A LITTLE IN THE LOWER YUKON DELTA
TONIGHT. LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN
AREAS...OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM THE BERING STRAIT NORTH AS THE
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREAS WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 25 MPH
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND POINT HOPE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.

INTERIOR...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY AND WILL HANG UP IN THE BROOKS RANGE AND UPPER YUKON TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST
OF THE AREA AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. NOT MUCH EXPECTED PRECIPITATION WISE...BUT SOME AREAS
NORTH OF FAIRBANKS COULD SEE UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING
AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH BUT EXPECT ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IF ANYTHING DOES KICK OFF. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST
OF THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE ALASKA
RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...SOME MODERATE NORTH WINDS
WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE COAST LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT WINDS
SHOULD BE 25 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SDB AUG 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 252043 CCA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1243 PM AKDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO 60 HOURS. MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A
BIT IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS SO AGREE WITH HPC ON USING THE ECMWF
IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...531 DAM LOW NEAR 80N 150W WILL MOVE EAST.
545 DAM LOW OVER COOK INLET WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN OVER YAKUTAT BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN DISSIPATE
AS IT MOVES EAST INTO CANADA. A 547 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
WRANGEL ISLAND TODAY AND MOVE OVER POINT LAY THIS EVENING WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF ANADYR...THE LOW WILL
MOVE OVER BARROW BY TUESDAY MORNING THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
OVER THE ARCTIC COAST. A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE ALCAN BORDER WILL
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. A 515 DAM LOW WILL MOVE TO 80N 180 BY LATE
TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO 77N 174W BY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. AT 850 HPA...ZERO
ISOTHERM STAYS NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN
MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST COAST EARLY THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH IT WILL LIE FROM DEADHORSE TO AMBLER TO BREVIG MISSION BY
LATE THURSDAY...THEN FROM BARTER TO BETTLES TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
BY MID DAY FRIDAY.

SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY NORTH TODAY TO LIE OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND THE
UPPER YUKON VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND THE EASTERN
ALASKA RANGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A 998MB LOW WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHWEST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF BARROW ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING EAST OF BARROW TO NUIQSUT BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO KOTZEBUE TO NOME TO
SOUTH OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM EAST OF BARTER ISLAND TO BETTLES TO KALTAG TO ST
MATTHEW ISLAND. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ORIENTS
EAST TO WEST AND DRAGS EAST INTO CANADA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A
1008MB LOW SOUTHWEST OF ATTU WILL MOVE TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN EAST TO KODIAK ISLAND BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY
NIGHT.

ARCTIC COAST...WITH RIDGE OVER THE ARCTIC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE INTERIOR EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH THEN WEST AS THE
FRONT DROPS OUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN FRONT OF THE SYSTEM...BUT
THAT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS 500 HPA HEIGHTS DROP TO THE 528 DAM
RANGE. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH AND POST FRONT COULD BE IN
SOLID FORM BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AS GROUND
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL TOO WARM.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...NORTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA...KOBUK
AND NOATAK AREAS ARE SIMILAR TO THE ARCTIC COAST SCENARIO.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME COOLING AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF GALENA AS IT FLATTENS OUT.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND
EAST TONIGHT BUT EXPECT SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH
MID DAY TUESDAY. WEAK RIDGE WILL PUSH OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO HAVE TOO MUCH IMPACT EXCEPT TO
HELP BREAK UP THE CLOUDS A LITTLE IN THE LOWER YUKON DELTA
TONIGHT. LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN
AREAS...OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM THE BERING STRAIT NORTH AS THE
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREAS WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 25 MPH
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND POINT HOPE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.

INTERIOR...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY AND WILL HANG UP IN THE BROOKS RANGE AND UPPER YUKON TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST
OF THE AREA AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. NOT MUCH EXPECTED PRECIPITATION WISE...BUT SOME AREAS
NORTH OF FAIRBANKS COULD SEE UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING
AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH BUT EXPECT ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IF ANYTHING DOES KICK OFF. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST
OF THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE ALASKA
RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...SOME MODERATE NORTH WINDS
WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE COAST LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT WINDS
SHOULD BE 25 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SDB AUG 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 250919
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
119 AM AKDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA INTERIOR WILL MOVE
TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY TUE MORNING WHILE GRADUALLY FLATTENING
OUT AND BEING REPLACED BY A LIGHT WEST OR SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR
THEN MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY THU BIGHT. A DEEP
UPPER LOW NEAR 80N/123E WILL MOVE TO NEAR 80N/170E BY EARLY WED
MORNING AND TO NEAR 75N/175W BY EARLY FRI MORNING, THIS LOW WILL
HAVE AN EXPANSIVE CIRCULATION AND EXPORT COLDER AIR TO THE WEST
COAST...ARCTIC COAST...AND THE NORTHWESTERN INTERIOR BEGINNING
LATER IN THE WEEK AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE FAR NORTHWEST REACHES
OF THE ARCTIC OCEAN. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HANG ON
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR WITH A
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW PERSISTS.

SURFACE...
A BROAD BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRETCHING
OUT OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS EAST-WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WEST
COAST AND INTERIOR. THIS CLOUD BAND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
DISORGANIZED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER CONTINUING OVER MANY PARTS OF THE INTERIOR TUE THROUGH
WED. WITH WEAK INSTABILITY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A
FEW POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR. ONLY A FEW CELLS WOULD LIKELY OCCUR HOWEVER...AND WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE IN DELINEATING JUST WHERE THEY MIGHT OCCUR THE
FORECASTS FOR TUE MIGHT NOT HAVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPANSIVE BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA
AND ARCTIC COAST THROUGH TUE...RECEDING EASTWARD INTO THE CANADA
ARCHIPELAGO BY WED. CURRENT MODEL RUNS BRINGING A SURFACE TROUGH
EASTWARD TO AROUND 170W BY WED MORNING...THEN SWINGING THE TROUGH
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ARCTIC THU. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
20-25 KT LIKELY IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH. WINDS ON THE WEST COAST
EXPECTED TO BE 15 MPH OR LESS MOST AREAS THROUGH THU.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NONE. MIN RH IN INTERIOR AREAS EXPECTED BE ABOVE 40 PERCENT TODAY
THROUGH WED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AUG 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 250919
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
119 AM AKDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA INTERIOR WILL MOVE
TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY TUE MORNING WHILE GRADUALLY FLATTENING
OUT AND BEING REPLACED BY A LIGHT WEST OR SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR
THEN MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY THU BIGHT. A DEEP
UPPER LOW NEAR 80N/123E WILL MOVE TO NEAR 80N/170E BY EARLY WED
MORNING AND TO NEAR 75N/175W BY EARLY FRI MORNING, THIS LOW WILL
HAVE AN EXPANSIVE CIRCULATION AND EXPORT COLDER AIR TO THE WEST
COAST...ARCTIC COAST...AND THE NORTHWESTERN INTERIOR BEGINNING
LATER IN THE WEEK AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE FAR NORTHWEST REACHES
OF THE ARCTIC OCEAN. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HANG ON
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR WITH A
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW PERSISTS.

SURFACE...
A BROAD BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRETCHING
OUT OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS EAST-WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WEST
COAST AND INTERIOR. THIS CLOUD BAND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
DISORGANIZED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER CONTINUING OVER MANY PARTS OF THE INTERIOR TUE THROUGH
WED. WITH WEAK INSTABILITY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A
FEW POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR. ONLY A FEW CELLS WOULD LIKELY OCCUR HOWEVER...AND WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE IN DELINEATING JUST WHERE THEY MIGHT OCCUR THE
FORECASTS FOR TUE MIGHT NOT HAVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPANSIVE BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA
AND ARCTIC COAST THROUGH TUE...RECEDING EASTWARD INTO THE CANADA
ARCHIPELAGO BY WED. CURRENT MODEL RUNS BRINGING A SURFACE TROUGH
EASTWARD TO AROUND 170W BY WED MORNING...THEN SWINGING THE TROUGH
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ARCTIC THU. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
20-25 KT LIKELY IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH. WINDS ON THE WEST COAST
EXPECTED TO BE 15 MPH OR LESS MOST AREAS THROUGH THU.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NONE. MIN RH IN INTERIOR AREAS EXPECTED BE ABOVE 40 PERCENT TODAY
THROUGH WED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AUG 14





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