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000
FXAK69 PAFG 110123
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
423 PM AKST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...

LITTLE TO DISCUSS WITH ANY CHANGES TO THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN...WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA
AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EXTENDING
NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. A 525 DM UPPER CUTOFF LOW
WAS OBSERVED OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE...WHICH IS SLOWLY
MOVING WESTWARD AFTER STATIONARY OR EASTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE
NORTH SLOPE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...1044 MB HIGH
REMAINS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 49N 155W IN THE WESTERN GULF WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED CENTERS ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT CIRCULATION.

12Z MODEL RUN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS...WITH
SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES THROUGH ABOUT
120 HOURS. FOR THE SHORTER TERM...UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD...TO BE OVER NORTHWESTERN
ALASKA AT AROUND 510 DM BY 3 PM FRI. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT
NORTHWESTWARD FROM PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BROAD LOW IN THE GULF
TONIGHT...CROSSING THE ALASKA RANGE AROUND 3 PM THU...CROSSING THE
BROOKS RANGE BY AROUND 3AM FRI AND BEING ABORBED BY THE LOW IN NW
ALASKA. THE NW ALASKA LOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN STATIONARY NEAR
POINT HOPE THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR INTO THIS WEEKEND. A SECOND WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT
OUT OF THE GULF...TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN INTERIOR
AND THE YUKON ON SATURDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...EMBEDDED TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL
SWING FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE NORTH SLOPE LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH PERIODS OF FLURRIES
AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE FALLING SNOW IN
COMBINATION WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE ARCTIC COAST
WILL KEEP WINDS THERE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...LEADING TO VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE A TIMES IN BLOWING
SNOW. CURRENTLY EXPECTING VISIBILITIES TO PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN
ABOVE ONE HALF MILE...WITH NO MAJOR INCREASES IN WIND SPEED OR
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY ANTICIPATED...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR NOW. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL PIECES OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EXPECTED OF AFFECT THE NORTH SLOPE...ALTHOUGH
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO RELAX ON THE ARCTIC COAST FOR A BIT
ON FRIDAY.

WEST COAST...NO REAL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO SPEAK OF FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE ON THURSDAY...WILL MOVE
FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA ON THURSDAY
AND INTO THE WEST INTERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT...SLOWING AND BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY ON THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE WEST COAST ZONES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH OR TWO FOR
THE EVENT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TO
THE WEST COAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY FOR THE LOWER YUKON
VALLEY BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
THERE RELAXES SOMEWHAT.

INTERIOR...A WEATHER FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE EAST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MINCHUMINA TO ARCTIC VILLAGE.
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TANANA
VALLEY AND GREATER FAIRBANKS AREA AT THIS TIME...AS STRONG WINDS
OVER THE ALASKA RANGE WILL CREATE A SHADOW EFFECT DOWNSTREAM.

WINDS...LOCAL GUSTS ON SUMMITS ARE EXPECTED FOR ZONES 219...220
AND 221 TONIGHT BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS
SOMEWHAT...AS 982 MB LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD AROUND THE PARENT
CIRCULATION TOWARD BRISTOL BAY. A CHINOOK FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE ALASKA RANGE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE ALASKA RANGE
TOMORROW. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN PASSES
AND NEAR DELTA JUNCTION DUE TO DEVELOPING TANANA VALLEY JET.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240.
&&

$$

NTS FEB 16




000
FXAK69 PAFG 110123
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
423 PM AKST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...

LITTLE TO DISCUSS WITH ANY CHANGES TO THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN...WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA
AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EXTENDING
NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. A 525 DM UPPER CUTOFF LOW
WAS OBSERVED OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE...WHICH IS SLOWLY
MOVING WESTWARD AFTER STATIONARY OR EASTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE
NORTH SLOPE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...1044 MB HIGH
REMAINS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 49N 155W IN THE WESTERN GULF WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED CENTERS ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT CIRCULATION.

12Z MODEL RUN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS...WITH
SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES THROUGH ABOUT
120 HOURS. FOR THE SHORTER TERM...UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD...TO BE OVER NORTHWESTERN
ALASKA AT AROUND 510 DM BY 3 PM FRI. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT
NORTHWESTWARD FROM PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BROAD LOW IN THE GULF
TONIGHT...CROSSING THE ALASKA RANGE AROUND 3 PM THU...CROSSING THE
BROOKS RANGE BY AROUND 3AM FRI AND BEING ABORBED BY THE LOW IN NW
ALASKA. THE NW ALASKA LOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN STATIONARY NEAR
POINT HOPE THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR INTO THIS WEEKEND. A SECOND WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT
OUT OF THE GULF...TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN INTERIOR
AND THE YUKON ON SATURDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...EMBEDDED TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL
SWING FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE NORTH SLOPE LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH PERIODS OF FLURRIES
AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE FALLING SNOW IN
COMBINATION WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE ARCTIC COAST
WILL KEEP WINDS THERE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...LEADING TO VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE A TIMES IN BLOWING
SNOW. CURRENTLY EXPECTING VISIBILITIES TO PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN
ABOVE ONE HALF MILE...WITH NO MAJOR INCREASES IN WIND SPEED OR
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY ANTICIPATED...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR NOW. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL PIECES OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EXPECTED OF AFFECT THE NORTH SLOPE...ALTHOUGH
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO RELAX ON THE ARCTIC COAST FOR A BIT
ON FRIDAY.

WEST COAST...NO REAL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO SPEAK OF FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE ON THURSDAY...WILL MOVE
FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA ON THURSDAY
AND INTO THE WEST INTERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT...SLOWING AND BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY ON THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE WEST COAST ZONES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH OR TWO FOR
THE EVENT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TO
THE WEST COAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY FOR THE LOWER YUKON
VALLEY BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
THERE RELAXES SOMEWHAT.

INTERIOR...A WEATHER FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE EAST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MINCHUMINA TO ARCTIC VILLAGE.
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TANANA
VALLEY AND GREATER FAIRBANKS AREA AT THIS TIME...AS STRONG WINDS
OVER THE ALASKA RANGE WILL CREATE A SHADOW EFFECT DOWNSTREAM.

WINDS...LOCAL GUSTS ON SUMMITS ARE EXPECTED FOR ZONES 219...220
AND 221 TONIGHT BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS
SOMEWHAT...AS 982 MB LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD AROUND THE PARENT
CIRCULATION TOWARD BRISTOL BAY. A CHINOOK FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE ALASKA RANGE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE ALASKA RANGE
TOMORROW. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN PASSES
AND NEAR DELTA JUNCTION DUE TO DEVELOPING TANANA VALLEY JET.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240.
&&

$$

NTS FEB 16





000
FXAK69 PAFG 101130
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
230 AM AKST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY AS GOOD AGREEMENT
CONTINUES AND HAS IMPROVED IN THE 24 TO 60 HOUR RANGE. WILL USE
THE SAME FORECAST METHODOLOGY TODAY BY LEANING ON AN EVEN BLEND
FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE TIMING AS
IT MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE STATE
AS IT EXTENDS UP TH WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA OVER THE SOUTHERN
YUKON TERRITORY THEN WEST OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND AND CHUKCHI SEA WITH
540 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. THE RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE AS A 525 DAM LOW OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE WEST TO THE UPPER KOBUK THURSDAY MORNING...AND OVER KOTZEBUE
SOUND FRIDAY BEFORE TURNING NORTH AND DRIFTING INTO THE CHUKCHI
SEA. A CHUNK OF THE RIDGE BROKE OFF AND A 540 DAM HIGH DEVELOPED
OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE NORTH WITH A
SECOND CENTER DEVELOPING OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC...WHILE
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. AT 850 HPA...WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR
JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

SURFACE...NOT MUCH CHANGE HERE SINCE YESTERDAY...A 1046 MB HIGH
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC AS THE CENTER SLOWLY MOVES
NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SERIES OF LOWS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL ROTATE NORTH
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ALL OF THEM DISSIPATING AS THE MOVE OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA. CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE MAINLAND. AS THE LOWS MOVE NORTH THE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE PINCHES A BIT AND SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER SUMMITS IN THE
INTERIOR.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE IS PRODUCING SOME
CLOUDS...AND IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING A BIT TO THE WINDS WHICH ARE
PRODUCING SOME LOCAL BLOWING SNOW THAT IS COMBINING WITH FOG TO
REDUCE VISIBILITY. GOES IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A NICE BAND OF
STRATUS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THAT IS MOVING
WEST. THE SPORT MODIS AND NPP VIIRS 24 HOURS MICROPHYSICS COMBINED
IMAGE FROM 09/2023Z...08/2001Z SHOWS A WELL DEFINED STRIP OF
STRATUS THAT EXTENDS EAST SOUTHEAST WELL INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
WINDS INCREASE A BIT TODAY AS THE RIDGE PINCHES SOUTH A BIT SO
EXPECT AND INCREASE IN THE BLOWING SNOW CONTRIBUTION TO REDUCED
VISIBILITY. TEMPERATURES NOT CHANGING SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A LITTLE INCREASED CLOUDINESS
OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA TODAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WEATHER UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN A
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE AREA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS WITH
WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS INLAND. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AS A DECAYING WEATHER FRONT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MID DAY. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.
NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...BUT LOCAL WINDS
GUSTING TO 35 MPH WILL OCCUR AROUND DELTA JUNCTION AND IN THE
ALASKA RANGE...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH OVER SUMMITS IN THE INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB FEB 16




000
FXAK69 PAFG 101130
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
230 AM AKST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY AS GOOD AGREEMENT
CONTINUES AND HAS IMPROVED IN THE 24 TO 60 HOUR RANGE. WILL USE
THE SAME FORECAST METHODOLOGY TODAY BY LEANING ON AN EVEN BLEND
FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE TIMING AS
IT MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE STATE
AS IT EXTENDS UP TH WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA OVER THE SOUTHERN
YUKON TERRITORY THEN WEST OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND AND CHUKCHI SEA WITH
540 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. THE RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE AS A 525 DAM LOW OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE WEST TO THE UPPER KOBUK THURSDAY MORNING...AND OVER KOTZEBUE
SOUND FRIDAY BEFORE TURNING NORTH AND DRIFTING INTO THE CHUKCHI
SEA. A CHUNK OF THE RIDGE BROKE OFF AND A 540 DAM HIGH DEVELOPED
OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE NORTH WITH A
SECOND CENTER DEVELOPING OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC...WHILE
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. AT 850 HPA...WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR
JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

SURFACE...NOT MUCH CHANGE HERE SINCE YESTERDAY...A 1046 MB HIGH
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC AS THE CENTER SLOWLY MOVES
NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SERIES OF LOWS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL ROTATE NORTH
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ALL OF THEM DISSIPATING AS THE MOVE OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA. CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE MAINLAND. AS THE LOWS MOVE NORTH THE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE PINCHES A BIT AND SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER SUMMITS IN THE
INTERIOR.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE IS PRODUCING SOME
CLOUDS...AND IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING A BIT TO THE WINDS WHICH ARE
PRODUCING SOME LOCAL BLOWING SNOW THAT IS COMBINING WITH FOG TO
REDUCE VISIBILITY. GOES IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A NICE BAND OF
STRATUS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THAT IS MOVING
WEST. THE SPORT MODIS AND NPP VIIRS 24 HOURS MICROPHYSICS COMBINED
IMAGE FROM 09/2023Z...08/2001Z SHOWS A WELL DEFINED STRIP OF
STRATUS THAT EXTENDS EAST SOUTHEAST WELL INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
WINDS INCREASE A BIT TODAY AS THE RIDGE PINCHES SOUTH A BIT SO
EXPECT AND INCREASE IN THE BLOWING SNOW CONTRIBUTION TO REDUCED
VISIBILITY. TEMPERATURES NOT CHANGING SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A LITTLE INCREASED CLOUDINESS
OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA TODAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WEATHER UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN A
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE AREA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS WITH
WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS INLAND. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AS A DECAYING WEATHER FRONT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MID DAY. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.
NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...BUT LOCAL WINDS
GUSTING TO 35 MPH WILL OCCUR AROUND DELTA JUNCTION AND IN THE
ALASKA RANGE...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH OVER SUMMITS IN THE INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB FEB 16





000
FXAK69 PAFG 101130
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
230 AM AKST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY AS GOOD AGREEMENT
CONTINUES AND HAS IMPROVED IN THE 24 TO 60 HOUR RANGE. WILL USE
THE SAME FORECAST METHODOLOGY TODAY BY LEANING ON AN EVEN BLEND
FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE TIMING AS
IT MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE STATE
AS IT EXTENDS UP TH WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA OVER THE SOUTHERN
YUKON TERRITORY THEN WEST OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND AND CHUKCHI SEA WITH
540 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. THE RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE AS A 525 DAM LOW OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE WEST TO THE UPPER KOBUK THURSDAY MORNING...AND OVER KOTZEBUE
SOUND FRIDAY BEFORE TURNING NORTH AND DRIFTING INTO THE CHUKCHI
SEA. A CHUNK OF THE RIDGE BROKE OFF AND A 540 DAM HIGH DEVELOPED
OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE NORTH WITH A
SECOND CENTER DEVELOPING OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC...WHILE
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. AT 850 HPA...WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR
JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

SURFACE...NOT MUCH CHANGE HERE SINCE YESTERDAY...A 1046 MB HIGH
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC AS THE CENTER SLOWLY MOVES
NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SERIES OF LOWS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL ROTATE NORTH
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ALL OF THEM DISSIPATING AS THE MOVE OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA. CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE MAINLAND. AS THE LOWS MOVE NORTH THE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE PINCHES A BIT AND SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER SUMMITS IN THE
INTERIOR.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE IS PRODUCING SOME
CLOUDS...AND IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING A BIT TO THE WINDS WHICH ARE
PRODUCING SOME LOCAL BLOWING SNOW THAT IS COMBINING WITH FOG TO
REDUCE VISIBILITY. GOES IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A NICE BAND OF
STRATUS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THAT IS MOVING
WEST. THE SPORT MODIS AND NPP VIIRS 24 HOURS MICROPHYSICS COMBINED
IMAGE FROM 09/2023Z...08/2001Z SHOWS A WELL DEFINED STRIP OF
STRATUS THAT EXTENDS EAST SOUTHEAST WELL INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
WINDS INCREASE A BIT TODAY AS THE RIDGE PINCHES SOUTH A BIT SO
EXPECT AND INCREASE IN THE BLOWING SNOW CONTRIBUTION TO REDUCED
VISIBILITY. TEMPERATURES NOT CHANGING SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A LITTLE INCREASED CLOUDINESS
OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA TODAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WEATHER UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN A
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE AREA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS WITH
WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS INLAND. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AS A DECAYING WEATHER FRONT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MID DAY. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.
NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...BUT LOCAL WINDS
GUSTING TO 35 MPH WILL OCCUR AROUND DELTA JUNCTION AND IN THE
ALASKA RANGE...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH OVER SUMMITS IN THE INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB FEB 16





000
FXAK69 PAFG 092229
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
129 PM AKST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTS OF A TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA
AND NORTHERN PACIFIC WITH A RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND MAINLAND
ALASKA. THIS PATTERN WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH THE TROUGH EXPANDING EAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE THE CURRENT TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE AND FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL SEE A SLIGHT COOLING AND BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW ON
THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH EXPANDS EAST.

A LOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE WILL PERSIST THROUGH 3PM WED
PM THEN MOVE WEST TO KOTZEBUE BY 3PM THU THEN PERSIST INTO FRI.
THERE IS AN AREA OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND FLURRIES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE YUKON DELTA TO NORTHWAY WILL
MOVE TO GAMBELL TO THE YUKON DELTA BY 3AM WED AND THEN DISSIPATE.
THERE ARE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS
TROUGH.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -4C OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR TO
-14C OVER THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE.

SURFACE...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA WILL
RETREAT NORTHEAST THU AND FRI. THIS WILL CAUSE NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG
WITH AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH FRI ALONG THE
ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH FRI
AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.

A WEATHER FRONT IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF ALASKA BY 3AM WED...TO BRISTOL BAY TO NORTHWAY BY 3PM
WED...TO DENALI TO OLD CROW BY 3AM THU...MCGRATH TO ARCTIC
VILLAGE BY 3PM THU...TO ANVIK TO BETTLES TO BARTER ISLAND BY 3AM
FRI...TO ANVIK TO AMBLER TO BARROW BY 3PM FRI. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
TO SPREAD NORTH WITH THIS FRONT. CHANCE OF SNOW AND AMOUNTS WILL
INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT LESS THAN 1
INCH OF SNOW IN THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES IN
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN INTERIOR. WILL SEE EAST WINDS 10 TO 20KT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR ALONG AND AFTER THIS FRONT WHILE THE WEST
COAST WILL SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES.

A SECOND WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY
3AM THU...AND OVER THE ALASKA RANGE BY 3PM THU...TO BRISTOL BAY TO
DENALI TO EAGLE BY 3AM FRI...AND THEN MERGE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FRONT BY 3PM FRI. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS FRONT UNTIL IT
MERGES WITH THE FIRST FRONT AND THE SNOW BECOMES MORE LIKELY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 3AM
THU. AFTER THAT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH THE GFS BEING WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ECMF AND NAM WITH
THE LOW MOVEMENT. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY STARTING THU WITH THE
LOW SO AT THIS POINT WILL USE GFS THROUGH 3AM THU AND THEN USE A
MIX OF THE ECMF/NAM AFTER THAT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

JB FEB 16





000
FXAK69 PAFG 091157
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
257 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AND THEY REMAIN IN
RELATIVE GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE MODELS REALLY
START TO DIVERGE ON THE POSITION OF SOME OF THE MAJOR FEATURES.
WILL LEAN ON A PRETTY EVEN BLEND FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...THEN
LEAN TOWARD NAM THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE
INTERIOR...THEN TOWARD THE GFS WHEN THE NAM RUN ENDS AS THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN MODELS SEEM A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR TO THE WEST.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE STATE
AS IT EXTENDS UP TH WEST COAST OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY
THEN WEST OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND WITH 534 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. THE RIDGE WILL BASICALLY REMAIN IN PLACE. A
525 DAM LOW OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC PLAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN CUT OFF THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST
OVER THE BROOKS RANGE TO THE UPPER KOBUK EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN MOVES WEST OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND BY LATE THURSDAY AND
PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS FALL TO 509 DAM. A
536 DAM CENTER WILL DEVELOP IN THE PART OF THE RIDGE THAT GETS CUT
OFF AND WILL MOVE OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE
NORTH IN OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC. RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE
ARCTIC...WHILE TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.

SURFACE...A 1044 MB HIGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC
AS THE CENTER SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BACK
TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A SERIES OF LOWS IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC WILL ROTATE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ALL OF THEM
DISSIPATING AS THE MOVE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN THIS
MORNING THAT IS PRODUCING SOME CLOUDS AS IT DRAWS MOISTURE
IN...AND IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING A BIT TO THE WINDS WHICH ARE
PRODUCING SOME BLOWING SNOW THAT IS COMBINING WITH FOG TO REDUCE
VISIBILITY. GOES IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE BAND OF STRATUS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THAT IS MOVING WEST. THE SPORT
MODIS AND NPP VIIRS 24 HOURS MICROPHYSICS COMBINED IMAGE FROM
08/2159Z...08/2233Z SHOWS A WELL DEFINED STRIP OF STRATUS THAT
EXTENDS EAST WELL INTO CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT
TODAY WHICH WILL HELP DIMINISH THE BLOWING SNOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THE FOG TO CHANGE MUCH SO EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
VISIBILITIES ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST LATER TODAY. DO NOT EXPECT
STRATUS TO MOVE TODAY. TEMPERATURES NOT CHANGING TOO MUCH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
WEATHER NEXT COUPLE DAYS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS INLAND. LOOKS LIKE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THE AREA COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE
NEXT 36 HOURS...THEN SOME SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVING INTO THE FAIRBANKS AREA
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS A DECAYING FRONT SWINGS NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM TANANA EAST AND NORTH TO THE BROOKS
RANGE THURSDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE AN INCH OR LESS AT
THIS TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...BUT
LOCAL WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH WILL OCCUR IN THE ALASKA RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB FEB 16




000
FXAK69 PAFG 091157
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
257 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AND THEY REMAIN IN
RELATIVE GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE MODELS REALLY
START TO DIVERGE ON THE POSITION OF SOME OF THE MAJOR FEATURES.
WILL LEAN ON A PRETTY EVEN BLEND FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...THEN
LEAN TOWARD NAM THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE
INTERIOR...THEN TOWARD THE GFS WHEN THE NAM RUN ENDS AS THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN MODELS SEEM A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR TO THE WEST.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE STATE
AS IT EXTENDS UP TH WEST COAST OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY
THEN WEST OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND WITH 534 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. THE RIDGE WILL BASICALLY REMAIN IN PLACE. A
525 DAM LOW OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC PLAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN CUT OFF THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST
OVER THE BROOKS RANGE TO THE UPPER KOBUK EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN MOVES WEST OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND BY LATE THURSDAY AND
PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS FALL TO 509 DAM. A
536 DAM CENTER WILL DEVELOP IN THE PART OF THE RIDGE THAT GETS CUT
OFF AND WILL MOVE OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE
NORTH IN OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC. RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE
ARCTIC...WHILE TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.

SURFACE...A 1044 MB HIGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC
AS THE CENTER SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BACK
TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A SERIES OF LOWS IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC WILL ROTATE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ALL OF THEM
DISSIPATING AS THE MOVE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN THIS
MORNING THAT IS PRODUCING SOME CLOUDS AS IT DRAWS MOISTURE
IN...AND IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING A BIT TO THE WINDS WHICH ARE
PRODUCING SOME BLOWING SNOW THAT IS COMBINING WITH FOG TO REDUCE
VISIBILITY. GOES IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE BAND OF STRATUS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THAT IS MOVING WEST. THE SPORT
MODIS AND NPP VIIRS 24 HOURS MICROPHYSICS COMBINED IMAGE FROM
08/2159Z...08/2233Z SHOWS A WELL DEFINED STRIP OF STRATUS THAT
EXTENDS EAST WELL INTO CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT
TODAY WHICH WILL HELP DIMINISH THE BLOWING SNOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THE FOG TO CHANGE MUCH SO EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
VISIBILITIES ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST LATER TODAY. DO NOT EXPECT
STRATUS TO MOVE TODAY. TEMPERATURES NOT CHANGING TOO MUCH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
WEATHER NEXT COUPLE DAYS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS INLAND. LOOKS LIKE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THE AREA COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE
NEXT 36 HOURS...THEN SOME SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVING INTO THE FAIRBANKS AREA
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS A DECAYING FRONT SWINGS NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM TANANA EAST AND NORTH TO THE BROOKS
RANGE THURSDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE AN INCH OR LESS AT
THIS TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...BUT
LOCAL WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH WILL OCCUR IN THE ALASKA RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB FEB 16





000
FXAK69 PAFG 091157
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
257 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AND THEY REMAIN IN
RELATIVE GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE MODELS REALLY
START TO DIVERGE ON THE POSITION OF SOME OF THE MAJOR FEATURES.
WILL LEAN ON A PRETTY EVEN BLEND FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...THEN
LEAN TOWARD NAM THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE
INTERIOR...THEN TOWARD THE GFS WHEN THE NAM RUN ENDS AS THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN MODELS SEEM A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR TO THE WEST.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE STATE
AS IT EXTENDS UP TH WEST COAST OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY
THEN WEST OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND WITH 534 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. THE RIDGE WILL BASICALLY REMAIN IN PLACE. A
525 DAM LOW OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC PLAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN CUT OFF THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST
OVER THE BROOKS RANGE TO THE UPPER KOBUK EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN MOVES WEST OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND BY LATE THURSDAY AND
PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS FALL TO 509 DAM. A
536 DAM CENTER WILL DEVELOP IN THE PART OF THE RIDGE THAT GETS CUT
OFF AND WILL MOVE OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE
NORTH IN OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC. RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE
ARCTIC...WHILE TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.

SURFACE...A 1044 MB HIGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC
AS THE CENTER SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BACK
TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A SERIES OF LOWS IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC WILL ROTATE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ALL OF THEM
DISSIPATING AS THE MOVE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN THIS
MORNING THAT IS PRODUCING SOME CLOUDS AS IT DRAWS MOISTURE
IN...AND IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING A BIT TO THE WINDS WHICH ARE
PRODUCING SOME BLOWING SNOW THAT IS COMBINING WITH FOG TO REDUCE
VISIBILITY. GOES IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE BAND OF STRATUS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THAT IS MOVING WEST. THE SPORT
MODIS AND NPP VIIRS 24 HOURS MICROPHYSICS COMBINED IMAGE FROM
08/2159Z...08/2233Z SHOWS A WELL DEFINED STRIP OF STRATUS THAT
EXTENDS EAST WELL INTO CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT
TODAY WHICH WILL HELP DIMINISH THE BLOWING SNOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THE FOG TO CHANGE MUCH SO EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
VISIBILITIES ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST LATER TODAY. DO NOT EXPECT
STRATUS TO MOVE TODAY. TEMPERATURES NOT CHANGING TOO MUCH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
WEATHER NEXT COUPLE DAYS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS INLAND. LOOKS LIKE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THE AREA COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE
NEXT 36 HOURS...THEN SOME SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVING INTO THE FAIRBANKS AREA
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS A DECAYING FRONT SWINGS NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM TANANA EAST AND NORTH TO THE BROOKS
RANGE THURSDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE AN INCH OR LESS AT
THIS TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...BUT
LOCAL WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH WILL OCCUR IN THE ALASKA RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB FEB 16





000
FXAK69 PAFG 082209
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
109 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS BEFORE MODELS
BEGIN TO LOOK LIKE SPAGHETTI AS THE CONTOURS SPREAD CONSIDERABLY
BETWEEN MODELS.

WHAT THE MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER
THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND REACHING NORTH TO THE
NORTH POLE. A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW ON THE CENTRAL ARCTIC PLAIN
APPEARS TO BE THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT OF THE RIDGE AS THE LOW WILL
PERSIST AND ACTUALLY EXPAND THROUGH THE WEEK. THE LOW WILL THEN
BECOME GENERALLY RELATED TO THE STRONG LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
MOVING TO THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA BY WED
AFTERNOON.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AND MOVE TO NEAR PRINCE PATRICK ISLAND BY WED AFTERNOON. THE
GRADIENT ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC
COAST TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ONLY LEAVE THE FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ARCTIC COAST WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT BY WED
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE THE BLOWING SNOW ON THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

THEW ARCTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONSUMED BY FOG FOR THE
IMMEDIATE FUTURE PARTICULARLY WITH THE STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING
EAST OF THE ARCTIC COAST BUT BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA FROM
NORTHWEST CANADA.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

$$

CF FEB 16





000
FXAK69 PAFG 081012
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
112 AM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR NORTHERN ALASKA INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL AND
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...IF ANY...EXPECTED. MODELS ARE
STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PERSISTENT GIANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ESSENTIALLY EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA NORTH TO THE YUKON
TERRITORY AND INTO THE HIGH ARCTIC. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
RIDGE DOES BREAKDOWN SLIGHTLY AS WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE
ROTATE NORTH INTO THE STATE AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...BRINGING SOME CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT AND NOT WIDESPREAD.

IN THE SHORT TERM...SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST ALASKA ASSOCIATED
WITH A DYING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND
CHUKCHI SEA WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE WEST INTO RUSSIA. THE NEXT PLAYER IS LOW PRESSURE NEAR
KODIAK ISLAND WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHWEST INTO THE BERING SEA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SPREAD SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
LOWER YUKON RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THIS
LOW IS BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN UP THE NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE STATE BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
EXCEPT OVER THE MARINE WATERS. SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE
LIKELY ON THE ARCTIC COAST BUT SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

LATER THIS WEEK...A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA AND BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND ARCTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

FEB 16





000
FXAK69 PAFG 081012
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
112 AM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR NORTHERN ALASKA INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL AND
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...IF ANY...EXPECTED. MODELS ARE
STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PERSISTENT GIANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ESSENTIALLY EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA NORTH TO THE YUKON
TERRITORY AND INTO THE HIGH ARCTIC. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
RIDGE DOES BREAKDOWN SLIGHTLY AS WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE
ROTATE NORTH INTO THE STATE AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...BRINGING SOME CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT AND NOT WIDESPREAD.

IN THE SHORT TERM...SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST ALASKA ASSOCIATED
WITH A DYING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND
CHUKCHI SEA WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE WEST INTO RUSSIA. THE NEXT PLAYER IS LOW PRESSURE NEAR
KODIAK ISLAND WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHWEST INTO THE BERING SEA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SPREAD SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
LOWER YUKON RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THIS
LOW IS BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN UP THE NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE STATE BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
EXCEPT OVER THE MARINE WATERS. SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE
LIKELY ON THE ARCTIC COAST BUT SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

LATER THIS WEEK...A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA AND BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND ARCTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

FEB 16





000
FXAK69 PAFG 081012
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
112 AM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR NORTHERN ALASKA INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL AND
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...IF ANY...EXPECTED. MODELS ARE
STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PERSISTENT GIANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ESSENTIALLY EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA NORTH TO THE YUKON
TERRITORY AND INTO THE HIGH ARCTIC. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
RIDGE DOES BREAKDOWN SLIGHTLY AS WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE
ROTATE NORTH INTO THE STATE AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...BRINGING SOME CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT AND NOT WIDESPREAD.

IN THE SHORT TERM...SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST ALASKA ASSOCIATED
WITH A DYING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND
CHUKCHI SEA WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE WEST INTO RUSSIA. THE NEXT PLAYER IS LOW PRESSURE NEAR
KODIAK ISLAND WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHWEST INTO THE BERING SEA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SPREAD SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
LOWER YUKON RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THIS
LOW IS BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN UP THE NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE STATE BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
EXCEPT OVER THE MARINE WATERS. SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE
LIKELY ON THE ARCTIC COAST BUT SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

LATER THIS WEEK...A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA AND BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND ARCTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

FEB 16




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