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000
FXAK69 PAFG 312246
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
246 PM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...LOW OVER SOUTHEAST BERING SEA MOVING TO SOUTHEAST OF
KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH MON. TROUGH MOVING NORTH OVER EASTERN ALASKA
RANGE SAT AM AND OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY SAT NIGHT THEM
DRIFTING INTO CANADA THEREAFTER.

SURFACE...966 MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHERN AK PEN 4PM SUN WEAKENING TO 988 MB WITH A SECOND LOW
CENTER OVER COOK INLET OF 991 MB AT THAT TIME. ASSOCIATED
OCCLUSION DRIFTING NORTH TO EXTEND FROM THE YUKON DELTA TO
MCGRATH 4PM SAT THEN DISSIPATING. 1019 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTH
CHUKCHI SEA AND WESTERN BEAUFORT SEA WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH MON.
WEAKENING OCCLUSION FROM TANANA TO FORT YUKON TO WESTERN CANADA
DISSIPATING BY 4AM SAT.

MODELS...AGREE FAIRLY WELL OVERALL IN SHORT TERM. IN MEDIUM TERM
THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WELL THROUGH THU...THEN DIVERGE
THEREAFTER.

NORTH SLOPE...EAST WINDS OVER THE FAR WEST PORTION OF THE WESTERN
ARCTIC COAST WILL HOLD INTO THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
FOR THE NEAR TERM.

WESTERN ALASKA...WINDY CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH SLOWLY
LATE SAT. SPOTTY SNOW OVER THE YUKON DELTA...LOWER YUKON VALLEY
AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN NULATO HILLS SAT AS WEAKENING OCCLUSION
NEARS.

INTERIOR...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER. WIND
CONDITIONS OVER SUMMITS AND LOCAL PLACES CONTINUING THROUGH SAT.
THE WEAK TROUGH MOVING NORTH LATE SAT AND SUN WILL BRING SOME
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS FROM FAIRBANKS EAST AND EAGLE
SOUTH.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-
PKZ225-PKZ230.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ225.
&&

$$

JL OCT 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 312246
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
246 PM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...LOW OVER SOUTHEAST BERING SEA MOVING TO SOUTHEAST OF
KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH MON. TROUGH MOVING NORTH OVER EASTERN ALASKA
RANGE SAT AM AND OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY SAT NIGHT THEM
DRIFTING INTO CANADA THEREAFTER.

SURFACE...966 MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHERN AK PEN 4PM SUN WEAKENING TO 988 MB WITH A SECOND LOW
CENTER OVER COOK INLET OF 991 MB AT THAT TIME. ASSOCIATED
OCCLUSION DRIFTING NORTH TO EXTEND FROM THE YUKON DELTA TO
MCGRATH 4PM SAT THEN DISSIPATING. 1019 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTH
CHUKCHI SEA AND WESTERN BEAUFORT SEA WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH MON.
WEAKENING OCCLUSION FROM TANANA TO FORT YUKON TO WESTERN CANADA
DISSIPATING BY 4AM SAT.

MODELS...AGREE FAIRLY WELL OVERALL IN SHORT TERM. IN MEDIUM TERM
THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WELL THROUGH THU...THEN DIVERGE
THEREAFTER.

NORTH SLOPE...EAST WINDS OVER THE FAR WEST PORTION OF THE WESTERN
ARCTIC COAST WILL HOLD INTO THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
FOR THE NEAR TERM.

WESTERN ALASKA...WINDY CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH SLOWLY
LATE SAT. SPOTTY SNOW OVER THE YUKON DELTA...LOWER YUKON VALLEY
AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN NULATO HILLS SAT AS WEAKENING OCCLUSION
NEARS.

INTERIOR...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER. WIND
CONDITIONS OVER SUMMITS AND LOCAL PLACES CONTINUING THROUGH SAT.
THE WEAK TROUGH MOVING NORTH LATE SAT AND SUN WILL BRING SOME
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS FROM FAIRBANKS EAST AND EAGLE
SOUTH.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-
PKZ225-PKZ230.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ225.
&&

$$

JL OCT 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 311426
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
626 AM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. THAT GFS RUN CLEARLY CLEANED UP ON THE ECMF. BASED ON
SATELLITE PICS AS WELL AS TRACK RECORD...WE PREFER THE GFS ON THE
DETAILS THIS MORNING. IN PARTICULAR...IT IS SHOWING THE DOUBLE
CENTER AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY...WHILE THE ECMF TAKES
MUCH LONGER TO DEVELOP MULTIPLE CENTERS. DESPITE THIS...THE GFS
DOES NOT SHOW MUCH MORE PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THAN
THE ECMF DOES...THOUGH WE ARE GETTING SOMEWHAT BETTER INDICATIONS
OF SNOW OVER ZONES 214 AND 215 NOW. WINDS REMAIN THE FOCUS OF
INTEREST HERE...AND NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WARNING LEVEL
WINDS...EXCEPT FOR GALES IN MARINE AREAS 200 AND 210.

DESPITE THE STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO BRISTOL BAY...WE STILL
DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF WIND THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES.
THERE IS JUST NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT ALOFT.

WINDS ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST COMING ONSHORE. THERE WILL PRESUMABLY
BE MORE FOG THERE IN CONSEQUENCE...BUT NOT YET ANYWAY.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-
PKZ225-PKZ230.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.
&&

$$

DJH OCT 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 302232
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
232 PM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...LOW FAR NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY DRIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH
SUN. LOW NEAR ADAK MOVING TO BRISTOL BAY 4AM SAT THEN DRIFTING
EAST AND WEAKENING. SMALL LOW NEAR YAKUTAT MOVING TO DAWSON CANADA
4PM FRI THEN CONTINUING NORTHEAST.

SURFACE...1005 MB LOW NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY MOVING NORTHEAST WITH
A 1017 MB HIGH ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA MOVING TO BARROW BY LATE SAT
AM. WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW ACROSS BANKS ISLAND TO THE
EASTERN BROOKS RANGE THEN TO TANANA WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES
EAST TONIGHT. 974 MB LOW 350 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE PRIBILOFS WILL
MOVE TO OUTER BRISTOL BAY AT 970 MB 4PM FRI...THEN ROTATE AROUND
BRISTOL BAY THROUGH 4PM SUN WEAKENING TO 986 MB.

MODELS...MODELS DIFFER ON ON LOCATION OF THE INCOMING LOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST BERING SEA. THOUGH THE DEPTH OF THE LOW IS SIMILAR AMONG
THE GFS NAM AND ECMWF...THE POSITION OF THE LOW AND ITS SECONDARY
CENTER DIFFER WIDELY ALONG THE LATITUDE OF 68 NORTH. FOR THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF NORTHERN ALASKA THIS DIFFERENCE IS NOT THAT
IMPORTANT HOWEVER AS THE MAIN EFFECT IS TO INCREASE WINDS OVER THE
AREA. ADDITIONALLY THE NAM MOVES THE SMALL LOW NEAR YAKUTAT MORE
INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR WHILE THE PREFERRED GFS MOVES MOST OF
THE ENERGY INTO CANADA.

NORTH SLOPE...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH FLURRIES AND STATUS
GENERALLY PERSISTING. EAST WINDS WILL PICK UP OVERNIGHT WEST OF
WAINWRIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE BERING SEA LOW MOVING NORTH AND THE
ARCTIC HIGH REMAINING CLOSE.

WESTERN ALASKA...THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS
OVER ALL COASTAL AREAS AND TO SOME EXTENT INLAND. SPEEDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REAMIN BELOW WARNING LEVEL THOUGH. NO SIGNIFICANT NEW
SNOWFALL EXPECTED. NORTH SIDE OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND MAY
EXPERIENCE ELEVATED SURF LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AM BUT SHOULD BE
LESS THAN ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

INTERIOR...THE SMALL UPPER LOW MOVING NORTH FROM YAKUTAT IS
PROVIDING SNOW OVER THE FAR EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AND THE UPPER
TANANA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTH
OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY AND THE EASTERN UPPER YUKON VALLEY
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.
MUCH LIGHTER SNOW FARTHER TO THE WEST OVER THE DELTANA...MIDDLE
TANANA VALLEY...DENALI AND CENTRAL INTERIOR ZONES. SNOW WILL
MOSTLY BE OVER BY FRI EVENING. A WEAK VORTICITY CENTER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BERING SEA LOW WILL DRIFT NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR WHILE WEAKENING SUNDAY...THIS FEATURE IS WEAKER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND EXPECT ONLY A CHANCE OF SNOW MON.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-
PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

JL OCT 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 301441
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
641 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THINGS OVER THE BERING SEA AND THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC APPEAR TO
BE DEVELOPING PRETTY MUCH AS EARLIER ADVERTISED...THOUGH MODEL
AGREEMENT CONCERNING FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS IS ONLY FAIR.

THE OLD LOW HAS MOVED BACK OVER KAMCHATKA AND WILL NOT BE A FACTOR
IN OUR WEATHER...EXCEPT THAT IT HAS CLEARLY MOVED SOME COLD AIR
INTO A POSITION WHERE IT CAN BE TAPPED BY THE DEVELOPING LOW THAT
WAS ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ADAK AT 4AM THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
PICS SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW IS DEEPENING RAPIDLY...A CONCLUSION
SUPPORTED BY THE FACT THAT THE SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT ADAK IS
FALLING RAPIDLY (DOWN 5 MB BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z). THE MODELS WOULD
HAVE THIS THING CROSSING THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN BETWEEN ADAK AND
SHEMYA AROUND 10AM. THE ECMF AND GFS MODELS BOTH HAVE THE THING
DEEPENING INTO THE 960`S THIS EVENING. THEY DIFFER CONCERNING THE
POSITION OF THE CENTER THOUGH. THE GFS WOULD HAVE THE CENTER
MOVING INTO BRISTOL BAY AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
SLOWER ECMF WOULD HAVE IT SOUTH OF SAINT PAUL AT 4AM SATURDAY.
IN EITHER CASE...THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT TUBES OUT EASTWARD
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WITHOUT GETTING NORTH OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND. THE GFS SOLUTION DOES NOT RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIALLY
STRONGER CHINOOK FOR INTERIOR ALASKA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY BUILDING IN OVER THE SOUTHERN
BEAUFORT SEA BEHIND THE OLD ARCTIC LOW...NOW ABOUT 300 MILES
NORTH OF BARROW AND MOVING NORTHEAST.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230-
PKZ240.
&&

$$

DJH OCT 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 292325
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
325 PM AKDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE IN DISAGREEMENT IN TERMS OF SURFACE FEATURES.
THEY ARE DOING BETTER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THOUGH...BUT
THEY HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT EVEN BETWEEN THEMSELVES FROM RUN TO
RUN.

IN GENERAL...COLD UPPER LOW ABOUT 200 NM NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST
WILL PUSH EASTWARD TO BE ABOUT 300 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT.
THE COLD AIR WILL BE DRAGGED DOWN INTO NORTHERN ALASKA WHICH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

700 MB CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE NORTH THIS EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR PROVIDING A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS. WHICH WILL BE
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE AREA EAST OF FAIRBANKS TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE UP THE ALASKA CANADA BORDER THU
NIGHT AND FRI AND PROVIDE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...AGAIN EAST OF FAIRBANKS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG LOW
PULLS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS FRI. THE UPPER LOW APPEARS TO
RESONATE IN BRISTOL BAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS JUST A MUCH COLDER REGIME
FOR NORTHERN ALASKA  THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

$$

CF OCT 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 291439
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
639 AM AKDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BEAUFORT AND NORTHERN
CHUKCHI SEAS WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN. ONE CENTER ABOUT 450
MILES NORTH OF CAPE LISBURNE WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING NORTH OF KAKTOVIK BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
AGGLOMERATION WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT A 1020 MB HIGH TO BE CENTERED
ABOUT 300 MILES NORTH OF BARROW FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE EAST TO LIE
FROM ABOUT SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND TO NUNIVAK ISLAND ON THURSDAY...
THEN BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN DUE TO DEVELOPMENTS TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. THE 988 MB LOW JUST EAST OF KAMCHATKA WILL MOVE
CYCLONICALLY NORTH THEN WEST AROUND THE LOW ALOFT. THE WEATHER
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL TUBE OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
BERING SEA...NOT GETTING NORTH OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. HOWEVER...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING ANOTHER LOW ON
ITS TRAILING FRONT OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA BETWEEN ADAK AND
SHEMYA THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...THEN TURN EAST. EXPECT A
LOW IN THE 960S OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA ON FRIDAY...LIKELY
PASSING SOUTH OF SAINT PAUL...BUT MAYBE NOT MUCH SOUTH. NOT MUCH
WEATHER NORTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND FROM THIS ONE...BUT WINDY.

FOR THE INTERIOR...WE STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE
OLD SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS THING WILL CONTINUE TO
SLING WEAK SHORT WAVES UP OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN INTERIOR UNTIL
IT GETS EJECTED FRIDAY NIGHT BY THE SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE
BERING SEA. WINDY OVER THE INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

DJH OCT 14





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