Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXAK69 PAFG 011559 AAA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
759 AM AKDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...A 545 DAM LOW AT 500 MB 300 MILES NORTH OF WAINWRIGHT
WILL WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH EAST OF DEMARCATION POINT BY NOON
SAT...THEN PROCEED EASTWARD INTO CANADA THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTHERN ALASKA
FRI EVENING THROUGH NOON SAT. A WEAK RESIDUAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE SUN. A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND WILL WEAKEN INTO A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN BERING SEA THEN NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS RUSSIA BY SUN
AFTERNOON. WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ALASKA INTERIOR SUN
AND PERSIST INTO MON.

SURFACE...A 1004 MB LOW 300 MILES NORTH OF WAINWRIGHT WILL WEAKEN
TO A 1006 MB CENTER 150 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY LATE
FRI NIGHT...THEN PROCEED RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO CANADA SAT. AT
12Z A WARM FRONT FROM DEADHORSE TO MCGRATH WILL MOVE TO EAGLE TO
MCGRATH BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME QUASISTATIONARY. A COLD
FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF BARROW WILL MOVE EAST TO PRUDHOE BAY TO
POINT LAY BY 4PM FRI AND ALONG THE CREST OF THE BROOKS RANGE BY
4AM SAT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST AND THE
BERING SEA THROUGH SAT...WEAKENING A FEW MB DURING THE PERIOD. A
THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR SAT AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUN.

THE WARM FRONT AND THE TWO SHORT WAVES WILL BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR...AND THE COLD FRONT TO THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE AND CENTRAL/EASTERN ARCTIC COAST.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE 40 PERCENT TODAY AND SAT. SOME DRYING
AND DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS EXPECTED SUN. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR SUN...WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. A SECONDARY WEAK
MAXIMUM OF INSTABILITY OVER THE INTERIOR SEWARD PENINSULA SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MIGHT PRODUCE A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECTED 48 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON...0.25 TO
1 INCH OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR ARCTIC SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE.
0.25 TO 0.5 INCH OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN INTERIOR...0.25 TO 1 INCH. SINCE THE RAIN WILL BE
SPREAD OUT OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED BUT WE
SHOULD SEE SOME GENERAL RISES ON RIVERS DRAINING OUT OF THE ALASKA
RANGE AND NORTHERN BROOKS RANGE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AUG 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 011559 AAA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
759 AM AKDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...A 545 DAM LOW AT 500 MB 300 MILES NORTH OF WAINWRIGHT
WILL WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH EAST OF DEMARCATION POINT BY NOON
SAT...THEN PROCEED EASTWARD INTO CANADA THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTHERN ALASKA
FRI EVENING THROUGH NOON SAT. A WEAK RESIDUAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE SUN. A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND WILL WEAKEN INTO A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN BERING SEA THEN NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS RUSSIA BY SUN
AFTERNOON. WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ALASKA INTERIOR SUN
AND PERSIST INTO MON.

SURFACE...A 1004 MB LOW 300 MILES NORTH OF WAINWRIGHT WILL WEAKEN
TO A 1006 MB CENTER 150 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY LATE
FRI NIGHT...THEN PROCEED RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO CANADA SAT. AT
12Z A WARM FRONT FROM DEADHORSE TO MCGRATH WILL MOVE TO EAGLE TO
MCGRATH BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME QUASISTATIONARY. A COLD
FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF BARROW WILL MOVE EAST TO PRUDHOE BAY TO
POINT LAY BY 4PM FRI AND ALONG THE CREST OF THE BROOKS RANGE BY
4AM SAT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST AND THE
BERING SEA THROUGH SAT...WEAKENING A FEW MB DURING THE PERIOD. A
THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR SAT AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUN.

THE WARM FRONT AND THE TWO SHORT WAVES WILL BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR...AND THE COLD FRONT TO THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE AND CENTRAL/EASTERN ARCTIC COAST.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE 40 PERCENT TODAY AND SAT. SOME DRYING
AND DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS EXPECTED SUN. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR SUN...WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. A SECONDARY WEAK
MAXIMUM OF INSTABILITY OVER THE INTERIOR SEWARD PENINSULA SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MIGHT PRODUCE A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECTED 48 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON...0.25 TO
1 INCH OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR ARCTIC SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE.
0.25 TO 0.5 INCH OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN INTERIOR...0.25 TO 1 INCH. SINCE THE RAIN WILL BE
SPREAD OUT OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED BUT WE
SHOULD SEE SOME GENERAL RISES ON RIVERS DRAINING OUT OF THE ALASKA
RANGE AND NORTHERN BROOKS RANGE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AUG 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 010913
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
113 AM AKDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...DEEP UPPER LOW...507 DAM AT 500 MB...300 MILES NORTH
OF WAINWRIGHT WILL WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH EAST OF DEMARCATION POINT
BY NOON SAT...THEN PROCEED EASTWARD INTO CANADA THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF NORTHERN ALASKA FRI EVENING THROUGH NOON SAT. A WEAK RESIDUAL
TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE SUN. A VERY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND WILL
WEAKEN INTO A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA THEN NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS RUSSIA BY SUN AFTERNOON. WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
ALASKA INTERIOR SUN AND PERSIST INTO MON.

SURFACE...A 1004 MB LOW 300 MILES NORTH OF WAINWRIGHT WILL WEAKEN
TO A 1006 MB CENTER 150 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY LATE
FRI NIGHT...THEN PROCEED RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO CANADA SAT. AT
09Z...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM DEADHORSE SOUTHWARD TO THE ALASKA
RANGE THEN CURVING WESTWARD TO THE POINT LAY AREA. THE EASTERN
PART OF THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO CANADA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST AND
THE BERING SEA THROUGH SAT...WEAKENING A FEW MB DURING THE PERIOD.
A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR SAT AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUN.

THE COLD FRONT AND THE TWO SHORT WAVES WILL BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR...AND THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND
CENTRAL/EASTERN ARCTIC COAST.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE 40 PERCENT TODAY AND SAT. SOME DRYING
AND DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS EXPECTED SUN. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR SUN...WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. A SECONDARY WEAK
MAXIMUM OF INSTABILITY OVER THE INTERIOR SEWARD PENINSULA SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MIGHT PRODUCE A THUNDERSTORM.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECTED 48 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON...0.25 TO
1 INCH OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR ARCTIC SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE.
0.25 TO 0.5 INCH OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN INTERIOR...0.25 TO 1 INCH. SINCE THE RAIN WILL BE
SPREAD OUT OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED BUT WE
SHOULD SEE SOME GENERAL RISES ON RIVERS DRAINING OUT OF THE ALASKA
RANGE AND NORTHERN BROOKS RANGE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

RF JUL 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 010913
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
113 AM AKDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...DEEP UPPER LOW...507 DAM AT 500 MB...300 MILES NORTH
OF WAINWRIGHT WILL WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH EAST OF DEMARCATION POINT
BY NOON SAT...THEN PROCEED EASTWARD INTO CANADA THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF NORTHERN ALASKA FRI EVENING THROUGH NOON SAT. A WEAK RESIDUAL
TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE SUN. A VERY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND WILL
WEAKEN INTO A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA THEN NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS RUSSIA BY SUN AFTERNOON. WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
ALASKA INTERIOR SUN AND PERSIST INTO MON.

SURFACE...A 1004 MB LOW 300 MILES NORTH OF WAINWRIGHT WILL WEAKEN
TO A 1006 MB CENTER 150 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY LATE
FRI NIGHT...THEN PROCEED RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO CANADA SAT. AT
09Z...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM DEADHORSE SOUTHWARD TO THE ALASKA
RANGE THEN CURVING WESTWARD TO THE POINT LAY AREA. THE EASTERN
PART OF THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO CANADA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST AND
THE BERING SEA THROUGH SAT...WEAKENING A FEW MB DURING THE PERIOD.
A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR SAT AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUN.

THE COLD FRONT AND THE TWO SHORT WAVES WILL BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR...AND THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND
CENTRAL/EASTERN ARCTIC COAST.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE 40 PERCENT TODAY AND SAT. SOME DRYING
AND DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS EXPECTED SUN. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR SUN...WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. A SECONDARY WEAK
MAXIMUM OF INSTABILITY OVER THE INTERIOR SEWARD PENINSULA SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MIGHT PRODUCE A THUNDERSTORM.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECTED 48 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON...0.25 TO
1 INCH OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR ARCTIC SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE.
0.25 TO 0.5 INCH OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN INTERIOR...0.25 TO 1 INCH. SINCE THE RAIN WILL BE
SPREAD OUT OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED BUT WE
SHOULD SEE SOME GENERAL RISES ON RIVERS DRAINING OUT OF THE ALASKA
RANGE AND NORTHERN BROOKS RANGE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

RF JUL 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 312204 AAA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
204 PM AKDT THU JUL 31 2014

SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A STRONG HIGH OVER THE BERING SEA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN. A LOW ALOFT NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE
TO NORTH OF BARROW BY 4PM FRI...TO BARTER ISLAND BY 4AM SAT AND TO
INUVIK BY 4PM SAT. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WET THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR MON
AND THEN MOVE NORTH TO THE NORTH SLOPE TUE. THIS WILL MAKE
CONDITIONS DRIER AND WARMER NEXT WEEK WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM ARCTIC VILLAGE TO DENALI WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE ALCAN BORDER TONIGHT. THERE ARE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH
THIS TROUGH.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH BARROW TO MCGRATH WILL MOVE TO BARTER
ISLAND TO DENALI BY 4AM FRI...THEN TO EAGLE TO DENALI BY 4PM FRI.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 6C TO 12C NOW THROUGH TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE ARCTIC
SLOPE FROM FRI THROUGH SAT.

SURFACE...
A 1022 MB HIGH OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRI.
A 999 MB LOW NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 300 NM NORTHWEST
OF BARROW AS A 1009 MB LOW...TO 200 NM NORTHEAST OF BARROW BY 4PM
FRI...TO 200 NM NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND BY 4AM SAT...AND THEN
CONTINUE RAPIDLY EAST. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM
THE LOW SOUTH TO BARROW TO THE YUKON DELTA WILL MOVE TO PRUDHOE
BAY TO MCGRATH BY 4AM FRI...AND TO BARTER ISLAND TO EAGLE TO
MCGRATH BY 4PM FRI...THEN BECOME STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN
SUNDAY AND EVOLVE IN TO A THERMAL TROUGH.

A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN ARCTIC
COAST BY 4AM FRI...THEN TO BARTER ISLAND TO POINT LAY BY 4PM
FRI...THEN TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO ANAKTUVUK PASS TO POINT LAY BY 4AM
SAT THEN STATIONARY AND WEAKENING. WILL SEE MORE RAIN WITH THIS
FRONT. WILL ALSO SEE WEST WINDS 20 MPH ALONG THE FRONT TURNING
NORTHWEST NORTH OF THE FRONT. SHOULD SEE DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECT LIGHT RAIN WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT BECOMING HEAVIER FRI AS
WEST FLOW INCREASES AND INCREASES UPSLOPE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH
SLOPE AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR. RAIN WILL CONTINUE AMONG THE FRONT
INTO SAT THEN BECOME MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT .50 TO 1.50
INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE FRONT FRI THROUGH SAT...HEAVIEST ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF BROOKS RANGE AND ALASKA RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA SAT AND PERSIST INTO
SUN.

THE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM ANVIK TO TANANA TO EAGLE ON SUN
WILL ALLOW SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUN INTO NEXT WEEK OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SIMILAR SOLUTIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
SLIGHT DIFFERENCE NEXT WEEK BUT MODELS SIMILAR WITH THE BROAD
SCALE PATTERN.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH ABOVE 30% TODAY. FRI AND SAT WILL HAVE RH MOSTLY ABOVE 40%.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECT .50 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND
EASTERN NORTH SLOPE FRI THROUGH SAT...HEAVIEST ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF BROOKS RANGE AND ALASKA RANGE. DURATION IS LONG ENOUGH THAT NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED BUT IT WILL RAISE RIVERS NORTH SIDES OF
BROOKS AND ALASKA RANGES.

&&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

JUL 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 312204 AAA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
204 PM AKDT THU JUL 31 2014

SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A STRONG HIGH OVER THE BERING SEA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN. A LOW ALOFT NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE
TO NORTH OF BARROW BY 4PM FRI...TO BARTER ISLAND BY 4AM SAT AND TO
INUVIK BY 4PM SAT. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WET THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR MON
AND THEN MOVE NORTH TO THE NORTH SLOPE TUE. THIS WILL MAKE
CONDITIONS DRIER AND WARMER NEXT WEEK WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM ARCTIC VILLAGE TO DENALI WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE ALCAN BORDER TONIGHT. THERE ARE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH
THIS TROUGH.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH BARROW TO MCGRATH WILL MOVE TO BARTER
ISLAND TO DENALI BY 4AM FRI...THEN TO EAGLE TO DENALI BY 4PM FRI.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 6C TO 12C NOW THROUGH TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE ARCTIC
SLOPE FROM FRI THROUGH SAT.

SURFACE...
A 1022 MB HIGH OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRI.
A 999 MB LOW NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 300 NM NORTHWEST
OF BARROW AS A 1009 MB LOW...TO 200 NM NORTHEAST OF BARROW BY 4PM
FRI...TO 200 NM NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND BY 4AM SAT...AND THEN
CONTINUE RAPIDLY EAST. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM
THE LOW SOUTH TO BARROW TO THE YUKON DELTA WILL MOVE TO PRUDHOE
BAY TO MCGRATH BY 4AM FRI...AND TO BARTER ISLAND TO EAGLE TO
MCGRATH BY 4PM FRI...THEN BECOME STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN
SUNDAY AND EVOLVE IN TO A THERMAL TROUGH.

A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN ARCTIC
COAST BY 4AM FRI...THEN TO BARTER ISLAND TO POINT LAY BY 4PM
FRI...THEN TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO ANAKTUVUK PASS TO POINT LAY BY 4AM
SAT THEN STATIONARY AND WEAKENING. WILL SEE MORE RAIN WITH THIS
FRONT. WILL ALSO SEE WEST WINDS 20 MPH ALONG THE FRONT TURNING
NORTHWEST NORTH OF THE FRONT. SHOULD SEE DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECT LIGHT RAIN WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT BECOMING HEAVIER FRI AS
WEST FLOW INCREASES AND INCREASES UPSLOPE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH
SLOPE AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR. RAIN WILL CONTINUE AMONG THE FRONT
INTO SAT THEN BECOME MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT .50 TO 1.50
INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE FRONT FRI THROUGH SAT...HEAVIEST ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF BROOKS RANGE AND ALASKA RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA SAT AND PERSIST INTO
SUN.

THE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM ANVIK TO TANANA TO EAGLE ON SUN
WILL ALLOW SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUN INTO NEXT WEEK OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SIMILAR SOLUTIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
SLIGHT DIFFERENCE NEXT WEEK BUT MODELS SIMILAR WITH THE BROAD
SCALE PATTERN.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH ABOVE 30% TODAY. FRI AND SAT WILL HAVE RH MOSTLY ABOVE 40%.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECT .50 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND
EASTERN NORTH SLOPE FRI THROUGH SAT...HEAVIEST ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF BROOKS RANGE AND ALASKA RANGE. DURATION IS LONG ENOUGH THAT NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED BUT IT WILL RAISE RIVERS NORTH SIDES OF
BROOKS AND ALASKA RANGES.

&&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

JUL 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 312130
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
130 PM AKDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A STRONG HIGH OVER THE BERING SEA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN. A LOW ALOFT NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE
TO NORTH OF BARROW BY 4PM FRI...TO BARTER ISLAND BY 4AM SAT AND TO
INUVIK BY 4PM SAT. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WET THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR MON
AND THEN MOVE NORTH TO THE NORTH SLOPE TUE. THIS WILL MAKE
CONDITIONS DRIER AND WARMER NEXT WEEK WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM ARCTIC VILLAGE TO DENALI WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE ALCAN BORDER TONIGHT. THERE ARE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH
THIS TROUGH.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH BARROW TO MCGRATH WILL MOVE TO BARTER
ISLAND TO DENALI BY 4AM FRI...THEN TO EAGLE TO DENALI BY 4PM FRI.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 6C TO 12C NOW THROUGH TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE ARCTIC
SLOPE FROM FRI THROUGH SAT.

SURFACE...
A 1022 MB HIGH OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRI.
A 999 MB LOW NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 300 NM NORTHWEST
OF BARROW AS A 1009 MB LOW...TO 200 NM NORTHEAST OF BARROW BY 4PM
FRI...TO 200 NM NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND BY 4AM SAT...AND THEN
CONTINUE RAPIDLY EAST. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM
THE LOW SOUTH TO BARROW TO THE YUKON DELTA WILL MOVE TO PRUDHOE
BAY TO MCGRATH BY 4AM FRI...AND TO BARTER ISLAND TO EAGLE TO
MCGRATH BY 4PM FRI...THEN BECOME STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN
SUNDAY AND EVOLVE IN TO A THERMAL TROUGH.

EXPECT LIGHT RAIN WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT BECOMING HEAVIER FRI AS
WEST FLOW INCREASES AND INCREASES UPSLOPE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH
SLOPE AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR. RAIN WILL CONTINUE AMONG THE FRONT
INTO SAT THEN BECOME MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT .50 TO 1.50
INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE FRONT FRI THROUGH SAT...HEAVIEST ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF BROOKS RANGE AND ALASKA RANGE.

THE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM ANVIK TO TANANA TO EAGLE ON SUN
WILL ALLOW SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUN INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SIMILAR SOLUTIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH ABOVE 30% TODAY. FRI AND SAT WILL HAVE RH MOSTLY ABOVE 40%.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECT .50 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND
EASTERN NORTH SLOPE FRI THROUGH SAT...HEAVIEST ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF BROOKS RANGE AND ALASKA RANGE. DURATION IS LONG ENOUGH THAT NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED BUT IT WILL RAISE RIVERS NORTH SIDES OF
BROOKS AND ALASKA RANGES.

&&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

JB JUL 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 312130
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
130 PM AKDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A STRONG HIGH OVER THE BERING SEA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN. A LOW ALOFT NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE
TO NORTH OF BARROW BY 4PM FRI...TO BARTER ISLAND BY 4AM SAT AND TO
INUVIK BY 4PM SAT. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WET THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR MON
AND THEN MOVE NORTH TO THE NORTH SLOPE TUE. THIS WILL MAKE
CONDITIONS DRIER AND WARMER NEXT WEEK WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM ARCTIC VILLAGE TO DENALI WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE ALCAN BORDER TONIGHT. THERE ARE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH
THIS TROUGH.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH BARROW TO MCGRATH WILL MOVE TO BARTER
ISLAND TO DENALI BY 4AM FRI...THEN TO EAGLE TO DENALI BY 4PM FRI.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 6C TO 12C NOW THROUGH TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE ARCTIC
SLOPE FROM FRI THROUGH SAT.

SURFACE...
A 1022 MB HIGH OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRI.
A 999 MB LOW NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 300 NM NORTHWEST
OF BARROW AS A 1009 MB LOW...TO 200 NM NORTHEAST OF BARROW BY 4PM
FRI...TO 200 NM NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND BY 4AM SAT...AND THEN
CONTINUE RAPIDLY EAST. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM
THE LOW SOUTH TO BARROW TO THE YUKON DELTA WILL MOVE TO PRUDHOE
BAY TO MCGRATH BY 4AM FRI...AND TO BARTER ISLAND TO EAGLE TO
MCGRATH BY 4PM FRI...THEN BECOME STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN
SUNDAY AND EVOLVE IN TO A THERMAL TROUGH.

EXPECT LIGHT RAIN WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT BECOMING HEAVIER FRI AS
WEST FLOW INCREASES AND INCREASES UPSLOPE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH
SLOPE AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR. RAIN WILL CONTINUE AMONG THE FRONT
INTO SAT THEN BECOME MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT .50 TO 1.50
INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE FRONT FRI THROUGH SAT...HEAVIEST ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF BROOKS RANGE AND ALASKA RANGE.

THE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM ANVIK TO TANANA TO EAGLE ON SUN
WILL ALLOW SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUN INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SIMILAR SOLUTIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH ABOVE 30% TODAY. FRI AND SAT WILL HAVE RH MOSTLY ABOVE 40%.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECT .50 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND
EASTERN NORTH SLOPE FRI THROUGH SAT...HEAVIEST ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF BROOKS RANGE AND ALASKA RANGE. DURATION IS LONG ENOUGH THAT NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED BUT IT WILL RAISE RIVERS NORTH SIDES OF
BROOKS AND ALASKA RANGES.

&&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

JB JUL 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 310917
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
117 AM AKDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE BRIEF DRY SPELL ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA IS COMING TO AN END AS
A WEATHER FRONT SWEEPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SPREADS RAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE BERING SEA WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE
WESTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC DIVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH SLOPE ON FRIDAY. THIS ARCTIC TROUGH WILL
MERGE WITH AN UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING A BROAD OPEN TROUGH OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN SOME CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE AFTER THAT BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGH PRESSURE
TO REBUILD OVER THE STATE LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEATHER FRONT ROTATING OVER THE TOP OF THE
BERING SEA RIDGE HAS MOVED INTO THE WEST COAST AND SPREAD
WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO THE COASTAL AREAS FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA
SOUTHWARD. A WEAK TROUGH AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ARCTIC COAST AND INTERIOR TODAY AND KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL ARCTIC TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...THE ENTIRE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND BRING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND INTO THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE. RAINFALL WILL PERSIST ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND
TANANA YUKON UPLANDS INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
OUT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S BUT NEARLY
EVERYWHERE WILL BE ABOVE 30 PERCENT EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED
LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR. INCREASING CLOUDS AND
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BRING HUMIDITIES BACK UP BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE INCOMING RAINFALL WILL BE DISTRIBUTED OVER SEVERAL DAYS AND
FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE TANANA YUKON UPLANDS WHERE 0.75 TO 1.50 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH LIKELY
ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BROOKS RANGE IN THE EASTERN ARCTIC AS
WELL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

EWP JUL 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 302206
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
206 PM AKDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
THE 500 MB PATTERN CONSISTS OF A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING
SEA AND NORTHERN ALASKA WITH A TROUGH IN NW CANADA AND THE GULF OF
AK. THIS PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THU THEN THE RIDGE
WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA AS A WEAK LOW ALOFT MOVES OVER NE
ALASKA FRI AND SAT.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NW ALASKA WILL MOVE TO BARROW TO THE
YUKON DELTA BY 4AM THU...TO PRUDHOE BAY TO MCGRATH BY 4PM
THU...TO BARTER ISLAND TO DENALI BY 4AM FRI...TO EAGLE TO MENTASTA
BY 4PM FRI. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE TO BECOME
ISOLATED AS IT MOVES INLAND.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE NEAR ANADYR WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN NORTON
SOUND BY 4AM THU...EASTERN NORTON SOUND BY 4PM FRI...GALENA TO
ANVIK BY 4AM FRI...FAIRBANKS TO MCGRATH BY 4PM FRI...TO EAGLE TO
DENALI BY 4AM SAT...AND ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE BY 4PM SAT.
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH THIS SHORT WAVE. COULD SEE RAIN
FALL AMOUNT UP TO 0.75 INCH IN THE ALASKA RANGE WITH THIS FRONT
AND .25-.50 INCH OVER WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE TANANA-YUKON
UPLANDS.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 6-10C ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -2C IN THE NE CORNER OF ALASKA.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOUT 2C THU ACROSS MOST OF AREA THEN COOL
A FEW DEGREES FRI.

SURFACE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH
FRI. THIS WILL CAUSE EAST WINDS AND NOCTURNAL STRATUS/FOG OVER
THE ARCTIC COAST INTO THU.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY
THROUGH FRI. WILL SEE AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG UNDER THIS.

A THERMAL TROUGH FROM CHANDALAR LAKE TO EAGLE WILL PERSIST INTO
SAT. WILL SEE AFTERNOON CUMULUS ALONG THIS BUT NO SHOWERS UNTIL
THU NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
SAT.

A 1003 MB LOW JUST NORTH OF EASTERN SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO 500 NM
NORTHWEST OF BARROW BY 4PM THU AS A 1005 MB LOW...AND TO 250 NM
NORTH OF BARROW AS A 1006 MB LOW BY 4PM FRI...TO 300 NM NORTHEAST
OF BARTER ISLAND AS A 1010 MB LOW BY 4PM SAT. A COLD FRONT WITH
THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO BARROW WEST BY FRI MORNING...TO PRUDHOE BAY
TO POINT LAY BY 4PM FRI...TO BARTER ISLAND TO CAPE LISBURNE BY 4AM
SAT AND TO THE BROOKS RANGE CREST BY 4PM SAT.
WILL SEE SOUTH WINDS 20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TURNING TO WEST 20
KT AFTER THE FRONT. WILL SEE RAIN WITH THIS FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH
SLOPE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL. SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH FRI...THEN
SIMILAR BROAD SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NAM HAS MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THAN THE GFS...WHILE THE GFS HAS HIGHER BULLS
EYE AMOUNTS FRI AND SAT. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH THE MORE
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF THE NAM BUT WITH BULLS EYES IN THE UPSLOPE
WEST FACING SLOPES FRI AND SAT SHOWN BY GFS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK INSTABILITY NE INTERIOR FRI BECOMING STRONGER SAT. COULD SEE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SAT NE INTERIOR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
COULD SEE RAIN FALL AMOUNT UP TO 0.75 INCH IN THE ALASKA RANGE FRI
THROUGH SAT. COULD SEE .25-.50 INCH OVER WEST FACING SLOPES OF
THE TANANA- YUKON UPLANDS FRI-SAT. NO FLOODING EXEPCTED.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

JB JUL 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 302206
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
206 PM AKDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
THE 500 MB PATTERN CONSISTS OF A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING
SEA AND NORTHERN ALASKA WITH A TROUGH IN NW CANADA AND THE GULF OF
AK. THIS PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THU THEN THE RIDGE
WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA AS A WEAK LOW ALOFT MOVES OVER NE
ALASKA FRI AND SAT.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NW ALASKA WILL MOVE TO BARROW TO THE
YUKON DELTA BY 4AM THU...TO PRUDHOE BAY TO MCGRATH BY 4PM
THU...TO BARTER ISLAND TO DENALI BY 4AM FRI...TO EAGLE TO MENTASTA
BY 4PM FRI. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE TO BECOME
ISOLATED AS IT MOVES INLAND.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE NEAR ANADYR WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN NORTON
SOUND BY 4AM THU...EASTERN NORTON SOUND BY 4PM FRI...GALENA TO
ANVIK BY 4AM FRI...FAIRBANKS TO MCGRATH BY 4PM FRI...TO EAGLE TO
DENALI BY 4AM SAT...AND ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE BY 4PM SAT.
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH THIS SHORT WAVE. COULD SEE RAIN
FALL AMOUNT UP TO 0.75 INCH IN THE ALASKA RANGE WITH THIS FRONT
AND .25-.50 INCH OVER WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE TANANA-YUKON
UPLANDS.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 6-10C ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -2C IN THE NE CORNER OF ALASKA.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOUT 2C THU ACROSS MOST OF AREA THEN COOL
A FEW DEGREES FRI.

SURFACE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH
FRI. THIS WILL CAUSE EAST WINDS AND NOCTURNAL STRATUS/FOG OVER
THE ARCTIC COAST INTO THU.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY
THROUGH FRI. WILL SEE AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG UNDER THIS.

A THERMAL TROUGH FROM CHANDALAR LAKE TO EAGLE WILL PERSIST INTO
SAT. WILL SEE AFTERNOON CUMULUS ALONG THIS BUT NO SHOWERS UNTIL
THU NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
SAT.

A 1003 MB LOW JUST NORTH OF EASTERN SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO 500 NM
NORTHWEST OF BARROW BY 4PM THU AS A 1005 MB LOW...AND TO 250 NM
NORTH OF BARROW AS A 1006 MB LOW BY 4PM FRI...TO 300 NM NORTHEAST
OF BARTER ISLAND AS A 1010 MB LOW BY 4PM SAT. A COLD FRONT WITH
THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO BARROW WEST BY FRI MORNING...TO PRUDHOE BAY
TO POINT LAY BY 4PM FRI...TO BARTER ISLAND TO CAPE LISBURNE BY 4AM
SAT AND TO THE BROOKS RANGE CREST BY 4PM SAT.
WILL SEE SOUTH WINDS 20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TURNING TO WEST 20
KT AFTER THE FRONT. WILL SEE RAIN WITH THIS FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH
SLOPE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL. SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH FRI...THEN
SIMILAR BROAD SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NAM HAS MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THAN THE GFS...WHILE THE GFS HAS HIGHER BULLS
EYE AMOUNTS FRI AND SAT. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH THE MORE
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF THE NAM BUT WITH BULLS EYES IN THE UPSLOPE
WEST FACING SLOPES FRI AND SAT SHOWN BY GFS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK INSTABILITY NE INTERIOR FRI BECOMING STRONGER SAT. COULD SEE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SAT NE INTERIOR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
COULD SEE RAIN FALL AMOUNT UP TO 0.75 INCH IN THE ALASKA RANGE FRI
THROUGH SAT. COULD SEE .25-.50 INCH OVER WEST FACING SLOPES OF
THE TANANA- YUKON UPLANDS FRI-SAT. NO FLOODING EXEPCTED.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

JB JUL 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 301100
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
300 AM AKDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND INITIALIZATION. ALL
SHOWING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS OUT THROUGH AT 90 HOURS...THEY DO
DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE HANDLING OF THE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST
ARCTIC COAST...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
MODELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIODS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...538 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER BANKS ISLAND CANADA
WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. 555 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC THROUGH THE WEEK. 587 DAM HIGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
BERING SEA WILL DRIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK. RIDGE AXIS LIES FROM
200NM WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLAND TO OVER NORTON SOUND TO JUST
WEST OF BARROW THIS MORNING. ANOTHER BRANCH LIES FROM FROM NORTON
SOUND OVER THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE. AS THE SYSTEM
ROTATES CLOCKWISE THE BRANCH NEAR BARROW ROTATES TO LIES FROM
NUNIVAK ISLAND TO ANVIK TO FAIRBANKS TONIGHT. THE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO ROTATE TO LIE FROM NUNIVAK TO ANCHORAGE TO YAKUTAT BY THURSDAY
MORNING. A 554 DAM LOW OVER THE SIBERIAN COAST WILL MOVE TO 76N
180 BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE
BERING STRAIT...THEN CONTINUE TO 75N 160W BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. AT 850 HPA...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPERATURES RISING 3 TO 5 CELSIUS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY FALL BY LATE FRIDAY.

SURFACE...RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE INTERIOR WILL SLOWLY GIVE
WAY AS SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY
THURSDAY MORNING. AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTH EXPECT INCREASED
CLOUDINESS. AS WEEK PROGRESSES TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR WITH INCREASING PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TROUGH STARTS OUT
ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE TO
THE BERING STRAIT TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM NUNIVAK ISLAND TO
WAINWRIGHT BY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUE EAST TO BE OVER
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ARCTIC COAST...DENSE FOG FROM BARROW EAST THIS MORNING WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING...HOWEVER LOW CEILINGS MAY HANG IN MOST
OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST AND
BROOKS RANGE KEEPING THOSE AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY. AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH LATER TONIGHT BEFORE RAIN STARTS TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC ZONES BY
LATE THURSDAY AS WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS
RANGE. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS BUT DO EXPECT THEM TO INCREASE TO 10
TO 20 MPH AS THE MAIN FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...NICE WEATHER GIVES WAY TO CLOUDS
AND RAIN THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAIN
STARTS ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON SPREADS TO THE BERING STRAIT BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN
INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. COOLING
TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS BUT DO EXPECT THEM
TO PICK UP IN THE BERING STRAIT TO 20 TO 35 MPH TONIGHT BEFORE
DROPPING OFF TOMORROW.

INTERIOR...NICE TODAY...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE RIDGE AXIS
ROTATES SOUTH OF THE AREA. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. PERIODS OF RAIN BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE
SIGNIFICANT...BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS WET. HIGHS IN THE
70S FOR MOST AREAS TODAY...THEN A SLOW COOL DOWN.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL IN
MANY AREAS AS FAR AS BURNABLE FUELS ARE CONCERNED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ220.

&&

$$

SDB JUL 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 301100
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
300 AM AKDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND INITIALIZATION. ALL
SHOWING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS OUT THROUGH AT 90 HOURS...THEY DO
DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE HANDLING OF THE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST
ARCTIC COAST...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
MODELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIODS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...538 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER BANKS ISLAND CANADA
WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. 555 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC THROUGH THE WEEK. 587 DAM HIGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
BERING SEA WILL DRIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK. RIDGE AXIS LIES FROM
200NM WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLAND TO OVER NORTON SOUND TO JUST
WEST OF BARROW THIS MORNING. ANOTHER BRANCH LIES FROM FROM NORTON
SOUND OVER THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE. AS THE SYSTEM
ROTATES CLOCKWISE THE BRANCH NEAR BARROW ROTATES TO LIES FROM
NUNIVAK ISLAND TO ANVIK TO FAIRBANKS TONIGHT. THE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO ROTATE TO LIE FROM NUNIVAK TO ANCHORAGE TO YAKUTAT BY THURSDAY
MORNING. A 554 DAM LOW OVER THE SIBERIAN COAST WILL MOVE TO 76N
180 BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE
BERING STRAIT...THEN CONTINUE TO 75N 160W BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. AT 850 HPA...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPERATURES RISING 3 TO 5 CELSIUS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY FALL BY LATE FRIDAY.

SURFACE...RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE INTERIOR WILL SLOWLY GIVE
WAY AS SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY
THURSDAY MORNING. AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTH EXPECT INCREASED
CLOUDINESS. AS WEEK PROGRESSES TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR WITH INCREASING PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TROUGH STARTS OUT
ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE TO
THE BERING STRAIT TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM NUNIVAK ISLAND TO
WAINWRIGHT BY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUE EAST TO BE OVER
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ARCTIC COAST...DENSE FOG FROM BARROW EAST THIS MORNING WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING...HOWEVER LOW CEILINGS MAY HANG IN MOST
OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST AND
BROOKS RANGE KEEPING THOSE AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY. AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH LATER TONIGHT BEFORE RAIN STARTS TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC ZONES BY
LATE THURSDAY AS WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS
RANGE. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS BUT DO EXPECT THEM TO INCREASE TO 10
TO 20 MPH AS THE MAIN FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...NICE WEATHER GIVES WAY TO CLOUDS
AND RAIN THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAIN
STARTS ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON SPREADS TO THE BERING STRAIT BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN
INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. COOLING
TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS BUT DO EXPECT THEM
TO PICK UP IN THE BERING STRAIT TO 20 TO 35 MPH TONIGHT BEFORE
DROPPING OFF TOMORROW.

INTERIOR...NICE TODAY...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE RIDGE AXIS
ROTATES SOUTH OF THE AREA. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. PERIODS OF RAIN BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE
SIGNIFICANT...BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS WET. HIGHS IN THE
70S FOR MOST AREAS TODAY...THEN A SLOW COOL DOWN.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL IN
MANY AREAS AS FAR AS BURNABLE FUELS ARE CONCERNED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ220.

&&

$$

SDB JUL 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 292354
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
354 PM AKDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE TROUGH ALOFT FROM ABOUT INUVIK TO FAIRBANKS TO MCGRATH WILL
CONTINUE SOUTHEAST...CLEARING MAINLAND ALASKA BY 4 PM WEDNESDAY...
AS THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN OUR WAY. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GET FLATTENED ON
WEDNESDAY BY A SHORT WAVE COMING IN FROM EASTERN RUSSIA. THE
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED
LOW ALOFT ARE PRESENTLY OVER MAINLAND RUSSIA NORTHWEST OF
KAMCHATKA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH
ARCTIC. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND EAST
TO LIE FROM ABOUT CAPE LISBURNE TO NOME AND SOUTHWARD AT 10 AM
WEDNESDAY...THEN SOUTHEAST TO LIE FROM ABOUT KAKTOVIK TO
FAIRBANKS TO BETHEL AT 4 PM THURSDAY. THE MODELS HAVE LITTLE OR NO
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION COMING IN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
INSTEAD...IT JUST SETS US UP FOR A JUICY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST THAT DECENT MOISTURE HAS ALREADY
MOVED INTO EASTERN RUSSIA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A WEATHER FRONT THAT MOVED FROM
THE WESTERN BERING SEA INTO MAINLAND RUSSIA NORTHEAST OF KAMCHATKA
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE THIS MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE HIGH ARCTIC ALONG WITH THE SURFACE CENTER. IT MAY JUST BRUSH
OUR ARCTIC COAST FROM BARROW WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE REAL RAINFALL COMES IN BEHIND THE
ORIGINAL TROUGH ALOFT...AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT
MOVE EASTWARD THE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ONE ENCOURAGING
FEATURE OF THE DEVELOPING REGIME...MUCH OF THE TRAJECTORY IS
OVER EASTERN RUSSIA. IT WOULD LIKELY BE A LOT WETTER IN
NORTHERN ALASKA IF THE TRAJECTORY WERE OVER THE BERING SEA.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS EVENING THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES IN ZONES
206/218 AND IN ZONES 225 AND 226. NO RED FLAGS THOUGH...AS FUELS
HAVE NOT DRIED OUT ENOUGH YET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO ISSUES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DJH JUL 14





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities