Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXAK69 PAFG 300008
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
408 PM AKDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The main deterministic models are in fair to good agreement on
the larger scale pattern over the upcoming week, with some subtle
differences in the timing and position of individual features
toward the latter half of the week. Dominant upper high pressure
at 575 dm centered over Kotzebue Sound will drift northeast into
the Chukotsk Peninsula by late Monday morning, and into northern
Siberia by early Wednesday. Broad low pressure over the southern
Bering sea will gradually shift eastward over the Gulf of Alaska
by early Thursday. A 532 dm high over the high arctic will round
the top of the ridge and descend south to near Demarcation Point
by early Thursday. A shortwave will slide south across the west
coast of the state Thursday into Thursday night, with troughing
extending over the northern half of the state late in the week.

North Slope: At the surface, A 1036 mb high pressure centered 300
miles north of Demarcation Point will move near Banks Island by
early Monday morning. A 1021 mb high 300 miles northwest of
Wrangle Island will gradually drift southeast into the Chukchi Seaby
Monday afternoon at 1028 mb. A 1012 mb low centered near 80 N 135
W Tuesday morning will drift south to around 150 miles north of
Demarcation Point by Wednesday afternoon. Current thinking is that
lower stratus which continues to hug the coast will scatter out
for most locations by late this evening, as low level wind
trajectories just above the surface turn more southeasterly. Fair
weather is expected then for Monday and Tuesday, before
aforementioned surface low settling near Demarcation Point
Wednesday brings a return to stratus and scattered rain or snow
showers Wednesday into Thursday. Marginal small craft advisories
will remain from Point Barrow east...gradually ending from west to
east tonight into Monday morning as pressure gradient weakens with
high pressure sliding toward northern Canada.

West Coast and West Interior: Little to no concerns here for the
next several days, with fair weather expected. Temperatures will
remain mild in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Winds will remain gusty
over southwest Alaska and northern Alaska range through Monday,
as low pressure centered near the Cook Inlet moves east Monday to
merge with a low in the Aleutians Monday night.

Interior: Gusty northeast winds to 25 to 30 mph will continue
through this evening, and weakening overnight as the pressure
gradient slackens. Shortwave trough will move from southeast
interior across the Alaska range Monday. This feature, rounding
the backside of the ridge, will help trigger showers and isolated
thunderstorms for southeast Alaska this evening, and mainly along
the Alaska range and Kuskokwim Valley into Monday. Chances for
showers will increase later this week as thermal trough becomes
reestablished just north of the Alaska range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 10 pm for
the upper Kuskokwim Valley due to gusty northeast winds, warm
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, and minimum RH readings as
low as 20 percent. Winds and temperatures look to remain near red
flag conditions on Monday, however temperatures will be several
degrees cooler. Otherwise continued warm and dry trend will
continue as advertised into early this week. There is continues
potential for some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening from Chicken south to Northway. On Monday, the coverage
area for isolated thunderstorms expands to include the Alaska
Range and upper portions of the Kuskokwim Valley.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...No hydrologic issues are expected. Warmer conditions
will allow for increase snowmelt and resulting runoff but no
concerns for significant river rises anticipated.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning for AKZ227.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

NTS MAY 16





000
FXAK69 PAFG 282150
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
150 PM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Relatively quiet weather expected over much of Northern Alaska
through the mid week..while areas south of Fortymile country and
will start to see isolated thunderstorms starting Sunday and
spreading towards the Alaska Range Monday. Models have been in
fairly decent agreement with the upper level high pressure system
located over over the Norton Sound area and shifting northward
toward Point Hope by Memorial Day. All models consistently show an
upper level low developing over the Yukon area and as it continue
to move west across the Alaska Range weakening into an upper
level shortwave and associated surface low. By Tuesday the
shortwave and surface low will be located toward Yukon Delta. The
upper level high will get pushed into Russia with ridge extending
across Western Coast as a stronger upper level low develops over
the Arctic west of Banks Island and with an extending trough over
Eastern Alaska. The associated surface low over Mackenzie Bay on
Tuesday will slide southwest along the Alaska Range by Wednesday
and remain a thermal trough through the Friday. Resulting in
increased shower and thunderstorm activity from Wednesday through
Friday for Eastern Interior.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range: Easterly flow will increase this
evening as the pressure gradient along the Beaufort Sea Coast
increases. This is a result of the 1034 mb high pressure moving
south and east towards the Beaufort Sea coast and increasing the
pressure gradient along the Arctic Coast through Sunday evening.
East winds in the Beaufort Sea will reach minimum Small Craft
criteria Sunday and persist into Monday before subsiding as high
pressure moves east towards Banks Island. Winds will also increase
along the Arctic Coast from Barrow through Barter Island through
Monday. Expect low ceilings in stratus to persist through evening
with some flurries expected along the Arctic Coast. Warming
temperates with ice free waters may increase chance of fog along
the Arctic Coast overnight.

West Coast and Western interior: Quiet weather wise as clear
skies with warmer temperatures, and dry conditions will persist
across Western Alaska . As the short wave moves west to east along
the Gulf Coast of Alaska on Monday...it may spark off a few
thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening over the Upper
Kuskokwim Valley.

Eastern and Central Interior: Skies have cleared out overnight
across much of the eastern and central interior. Fair weather
cumulus clouds have developed this afternoon from Tanana east.
Warmer and dry conditions anticipated through Memorial Day.
Thunderstorm coverage will increase for Southeast portions of the
forecast area from Chicken south on Sunday as instability
increases over the area. Areal coverage for the possibility of
thunderstorms expands Monday to include all of the Alaska Range
from McGrath east as the shortwave moves west.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A warming and drying trend will continue as
advertised into early next week. No thunderstorm activity is
expected this afternoon or evening. There is a potential for some
isolatedthunderstorms on Sunday from Chicken south to Northway.
On Monday, the coverage area for isolated thunderstorms expands to
include the Alaska Range and upper portions of the Kuskokwim
Valley.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...No hydrologic issues are expected. Warmer conditions
will allow for increase snowmelt and resulting runoff but no
concerns for river rises anticipated.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

MAK MAY 16





000
FXAK69 PAFG 281305
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
505 AM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Relatively quiet and beautiful weather is expected for much of
Northern Alaska through most of the forecast period. The 28/00z
deterministic models are in good agreement through Tuesday
regarding the overall placement of synoptic features...then slowly
diverge thereafter...though only with the timing and strength of
features.

The main feature of concern is the strong upper level ridge
currently parked over Western Alaska. This ridge will remain in
place today, but will then start to retreat westward Sunday into
early next week. An upper level shortwave will move south along
the eastern periphery of the ridge, moving over the Upper Tanana
Valley and Eastern Alaska Range Sunday afternoon. This shortwave
will move east to west south of the Alaska Range through Tuesday
morning. The aforementioned upper level ridge will then build back
east Tuesday. An upper level low will drop south from 80N and over
the Beaufort Sea Wednesday, weakening the upper level ridge and
pushing it west over Eastern Siberia. However, there are
differences between the GFS and ECWMF regarding this low where the
GFS is a bit faster bringing the low south. Meanwhile, an upper
low in the Northern Pacific moves north and into the Gulf of
Alaska Wednesday and then moves west along the coast Wednesday
evening and Thursday. At the surface, a 1034 mb high pressure will
move south and east towards the Beaufort Sea coast increasing the
pressure gradient along the Arctic Coast this evening through
Sunday evening, then will shift east towards Banks Island early
next week.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Easterly flow will increase this
evening into the overnight as the pressure gradient along the
Beaufort Sea Coast increases. East winds in the Beaufort Sea will
reach minimum Small Craft criteria Sunday and persist into Monday
before subsiding as high pressure moves east towards Banks Island.
Low ceilings in stratus have been reported along the Arctic Coast.
Expect low ceilings in stratus to persist today, but should start
to see ceilings lift and clear out late this evening and
overnight. Fog may become an issue as temperatures warm and ice-
free waters increase, so have placed the mention of areas of fog
during the overnight periods.

West Coast and Western interior...Clear skies, warm temperatures,
and dry conditions will persist across Western Alaska as the
upper level ridge remains overhead through early next week. Saint
Lawrence island is the exception where fog, at times below a mile,
was reported at both Gambell and Savoonga overnight. Webcam
imagery from Gambell shows that the low visibility in fog still
persists and thus have included the mention of fog in the forecast
for Saint Lawrence island this morning as fog is expected to
diminish. As the short wave moves west to east along the Gulf
Coast of Alaska Monday...it may spark off a few thunderstorms
Monday afternoon and evening over the Upper Kuskokwim Valley.

Eastern and Central Interior...Skies have cleared out overnight
across much of the eastern and central interior. There are still
some lingering clouds over the Upper Tanana Valley. Warm and dry
conditions are expected all weekend. Will see an increase in
shower activity Saturday evening over the Southeast Interior as
the upper level low moves south. A few isolated thunderstorms are
possible from Chicken south on Sunday as instability increases
over the area. Areal coverage for the possibility of thunderstorms
expands Monday to include all of the Alaska Range from McGrath
east to the ALCAN border as the shortwave moves west.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A warming and drying trend will continue into
early next week. On Sunday conditions could approach
meteorological red flag criteria in zone 215; however, at this
point there is not enough confidence to issue any fire weather
products. No thunderstorm activity is expected through Saturday.
There is the potential for some isolated thunderstorms on Sunday
in the far southeastern corner of the forecast area. On Monday the
coverage area for the isolated thunderstorms expands to include
all of the Alaska Range.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...Do not anticipate any issues. With the warmer
temperatures, expect to see some snowmelt allowing for increased
runoff over the weekend with potential rises in the rivers.
However, there is no concerns at this point even with the
increased runoff.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ230.
&&

$$

LTH MAY 16





000
FXAK69 PAFG 272324 CCA
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
324 PM AKDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Relatively quiet weather in forecast for the holiday weekend as
high pressure dominating Western and Northern Alaska. Models are
fairly consistent with upper level features through next 84 hours
before slowly diverging. However, even when the diverging between
the GFS and ECMWF it is more of a timing difference and strength
of the upper level features. Basically can expect warmer and drier
weather over majority of Alaska as the upper level high pressure
system moves from the Yukon Delta towards the Seward Peninsula by
Saturday. The high will move towards Cape Lisburne by Monday as
the upper level low over the Gulf of Alaska along with weak
easterly wave from Canada moves across southern Alaska pushing the
high pressure northward. Resulting in isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity for areas south of the Fortymile country
toward Northway on Sunday and Monday.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range: Easterly winds continue across the
the Arctic coastline through Sunday as the surface high pressure
north nearly 200 NM northeast of Barrow will slowly shift towards
Banks Island by Monday. Although easterly winds will increase in
strength, it will still remain below small craft or brisk wind
criteria through Saturday evening. Then easterly winds will become
easterly 20 to 35 mph Saturday night through Sunday night. With
warming temperatures there will also be more breaking off of
shorefast ice from areas Cape Lisburne and Point Lay to Icy Cape.
In terms of fog, this open water could contribute more to the low
stratus ceilings and poor visibility that may develop along Arctic
coast. In general, do not anticipate widespread dense fog but
conditions could fluctuate around various location along the
coast.

West Coast and Western Interior: Dry and warm conditions on tap
for the weekend with temperatures soaring into 70s on Seward
Peninsula Saturday and Sunday. Majority of West Coast and Western
Interior have cleared in sky cover, but there is lingering cloud
cover on the western side of the surface high pressure located
over the Yukon Delta.

Central and Eastern Interior: Still some lingering cloud cover
across the Interior. However, this should clear out overnight.
Expect temperatures to be warmer over the weekend along with
drying trend. An upper level low develops over the Yukon Canada and
drops south into Eastern Alaska so there will be some isolated
shower activity beginning Saturday afternoon. There will also be
increased northerly winds extending from the Fortymile country to
the Alaskan Range on Saturday evening as this upper level features
moves west. The instability increases Sunday and Monday with
potential for isolated thunderstorms as well for areas from
Chicken south to Northway and expanding to include Alaska Range on
Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A warming and drying trend will continue into
early next week. On Sunday conditions could approach
meteorological red flag criteria in zone 215; however, at this
point there is not enough confidence to issue any fire weather
products. No thunderstorm activity is expected through Saturday.
There is the potential for some isolated thunderstorms on Sunday
in the far southeastern corner of the forecast area. On Monday the
coverage area for the isolated thunderstorms expands to include
all of the Alaska Range. &&

.HYDROLOGY...Do not anticipate any issues. With the warmer
temperatures, expect to see some snowmelt allowing for increased
runoff over the weekend with potential rises in the rivers.
However, there is no concerns at this point even with the
increased runoff.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

MAK MAY 16





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities