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000
FXAK69 PAFG 031415
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
615 AM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...


THE WEAK WEATHER FRONT OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA THAT PRESENTLY
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM NEAR NUIQSUT TO THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE
WILL LIKELY STALL OUT TODAY. IT WILL RECEIVE SOME SUPPORT FROM
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TONIGHT THOUGH. THAT ONE IS STILL OVER THE
HIGH ARCTIC NORTH OF BARROW...BUT IS MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST.
THE COMBINATION WILL LIKELY MOVE THE OLD FRONT EAST OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST TO BE NEAR DEMARCATION POINT SATURDAY MORNING
AND TRAILING SOUTHWEST AND WEST OVER THE BROOKS RANGE...WHERE
IT WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DISSIPATE (FINALLY). EXPECT SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTION OVER THE ARCTIC ZONES EAST OF THE FRONT AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MOST VIGOROUS OVER THE BROOKS RANGE.

THE PORTION OF THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE LIES OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR. MOST OF IT  HAS ALREADY BECOME DIFFUSE.
THERE IS A NICE SHORT WAVE OVER ZONE 215 THAT IS KEEPING THINGS
GOING IN THAT AREA THOUGH. THE SHOWERS (AND MAINLY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS) WILL SPREAD INTO ZONE 227 TODAY AND INTO ZONE
225 THIS EVENING.

THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO STABILIZE
FROM THE WEST. CONVECTIVE ACTION TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE
CONFINED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONES 218 AND 220 AND TO ZONES 224
AND 226.

THE MODELS ALL HAVE THE LOW CENTER ALOFT NEAR KOTZEBUE MOVING
SOUTHWEST OVER NORTON SOUND BY THIS TIME SATURDAY...THEN WEST
AS IT IS ENTRAINED BY THE MUCH STRONG LOW ALOFT...PRESENTLY
NEAR ADAK...THAT WILL GRADUALLY BE MOVING NORTH OVER THE
BERING SEA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WARM AIR COMING IN
ALOFT WILL BUILD A RIDGE ALOFT OVER MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA
THIS WEEKEND. WARMER AND DRYER IN THE INTERIOR.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PRESUMABLY MORE ISSUES WITH OVER THE INTERIOR THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RISE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN THAT FELL OVER ZONES 222 THROUGH 226
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY HAS BROUGHT SMALL STREAMS UP AND
THE MEDIUM SIZED RIVERS ARE RISING. SOME SITES ARE PROBABLY NEAR
BANKFULL...BUT THERE ARE NO KNOWN FLOODING ISSUES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ221.
&&

$$

DJH JUL 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 031415
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
615 AM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...


THE WEAK WEATHER FRONT OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA THAT PRESENTLY
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM NEAR NUIQSUT TO THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE
WILL LIKELY STALL OUT TODAY. IT WILL RECEIVE SOME SUPPORT FROM
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TONIGHT THOUGH. THAT ONE IS STILL OVER THE
HIGH ARCTIC NORTH OF BARROW...BUT IS MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST.
THE COMBINATION WILL LIKELY MOVE THE OLD FRONT EAST OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST TO BE NEAR DEMARCATION POINT SATURDAY MORNING
AND TRAILING SOUTHWEST AND WEST OVER THE BROOKS RANGE...WHERE
IT WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DISSIPATE (FINALLY). EXPECT SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTION OVER THE ARCTIC ZONES EAST OF THE FRONT AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MOST VIGOROUS OVER THE BROOKS RANGE.

THE PORTION OF THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE LIES OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR. MOST OF IT  HAS ALREADY BECOME DIFFUSE.
THERE IS A NICE SHORT WAVE OVER ZONE 215 THAT IS KEEPING THINGS
GOING IN THAT AREA THOUGH. THE SHOWERS (AND MAINLY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS) WILL SPREAD INTO ZONE 227 TODAY AND INTO ZONE
225 THIS EVENING.

THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO STABILIZE
FROM THE WEST. CONVECTIVE ACTION TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE
CONFINED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONES 218 AND 220 AND TO ZONES 224
AND 226.

THE MODELS ALL HAVE THE LOW CENTER ALOFT NEAR KOTZEBUE MOVING
SOUTHWEST OVER NORTON SOUND BY THIS TIME SATURDAY...THEN WEST
AS IT IS ENTRAINED BY THE MUCH STRONG LOW ALOFT...PRESENTLY
NEAR ADAK...THAT WILL GRADUALLY BE MOVING NORTH OVER THE
BERING SEA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WARM AIR COMING IN
ALOFT WILL BUILD A RIDGE ALOFT OVER MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA
THIS WEEKEND. WARMER AND DRYER IN THE INTERIOR.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PRESUMABLY MORE ISSUES WITH OVER THE INTERIOR THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RISE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN THAT FELL OVER ZONES 222 THROUGH 226
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY HAS BROUGHT SMALL STREAMS UP AND
THE MEDIUM SIZED RIVERS ARE RISING. SOME SITES ARE PROBABLY NEAR
BANKFULL...BUT THERE ARE NO KNOWN FLOODING ISSUES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ221.
&&

$$

DJH JUL 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 031415
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
615 AM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...


THE WEAK WEATHER FRONT OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA THAT PRESENTLY
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM NEAR NUIQSUT TO THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE
WILL LIKELY STALL OUT TODAY. IT WILL RECEIVE SOME SUPPORT FROM
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TONIGHT THOUGH. THAT ONE IS STILL OVER THE
HIGH ARCTIC NORTH OF BARROW...BUT IS MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST.
THE COMBINATION WILL LIKELY MOVE THE OLD FRONT EAST OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST TO BE NEAR DEMARCATION POINT SATURDAY MORNING
AND TRAILING SOUTHWEST AND WEST OVER THE BROOKS RANGE...WHERE
IT WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DISSIPATE (FINALLY). EXPECT SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTION OVER THE ARCTIC ZONES EAST OF THE FRONT AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MOST VIGOROUS OVER THE BROOKS RANGE.

THE PORTION OF THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE LIES OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR. MOST OF IT  HAS ALREADY BECOME DIFFUSE.
THERE IS A NICE SHORT WAVE OVER ZONE 215 THAT IS KEEPING THINGS
GOING IN THAT AREA THOUGH. THE SHOWERS (AND MAINLY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS) WILL SPREAD INTO ZONE 227 TODAY AND INTO ZONE
225 THIS EVENING.

THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO STABILIZE
FROM THE WEST. CONVECTIVE ACTION TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE
CONFINED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONES 218 AND 220 AND TO ZONES 224
AND 226.

THE MODELS ALL HAVE THE LOW CENTER ALOFT NEAR KOTZEBUE MOVING
SOUTHWEST OVER NORTON SOUND BY THIS TIME SATURDAY...THEN WEST
AS IT IS ENTRAINED BY THE MUCH STRONG LOW ALOFT...PRESENTLY
NEAR ADAK...THAT WILL GRADUALLY BE MOVING NORTH OVER THE
BERING SEA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WARM AIR COMING IN
ALOFT WILL BUILD A RIDGE ALOFT OVER MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA
THIS WEEKEND. WARMER AND DRYER IN THE INTERIOR.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PRESUMABLY MORE ISSUES WITH OVER THE INTERIOR THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RISE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN THAT FELL OVER ZONES 222 THROUGH 226
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY HAS BROUGHT SMALL STREAMS UP AND
THE MEDIUM SIZED RIVERS ARE RISING. SOME SITES ARE PROBABLY NEAR
BANKFULL...BUT THERE ARE NO KNOWN FLOODING ISSUES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ221.
&&

$$

DJH JUL 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 022123
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
123 PM AKDT THU JUL 2 2015


.DISCUSSION...

GOES IR LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CENTER IS NOW CENTERED JUST NORTH
OF THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLE...CURRENT MODELS PROGGING A FAIRLY
RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT INTO NORTHERN CANADA...APPROACHING THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA/MANITOBA/ALBERTA BOUNDARY BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTERN ZONE
224-EASTERN ZONE 226 THROUGH THIS EVENING...BECOMING SPOTTY BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

FARTHER TO THE WEST...A SUBSTANTIAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND RAIN
EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN RANGE AND INTO THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR MORE HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE
LAST 36 HOURS IN NORTHWESTERN ZONE 224...THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
ZONE 222...ZONE 223...WESTERN ZONE 226...AND EASTERN ZONE 225.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL REPORTS AS OF NOON TODAY INCLUDE THE
FOLLOWING...

TOTATLANIKA RAWS                             2.49 INCHES
UPPER CHARLEY RIVER                          2.22 INCHES
EIELSON VISITOR CENTER                       2.14 INCHES
SALCHA RIVER NEAR RICHARDSON HIGHWAY         2.11 INCHES
UPPER CHENA DOME SNOWTEL                     1.98 INCHES
DENALI VISITOR CENTER                        1.85 INCHES
MCKINLEY PARK AIRPORT                        1.76 INCHES
TEUCHET CREEK SNOWTEL                        1.66 INCHES
BLAIR LAKES RAWS                             1.64 INCHES
CHENA RIVER NEAR TWO RIVERS                  1.55 INCHES
TOKLAT RAWS                                  1.55 INCHES

RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES HAVE FALLEN IN THE UPPER CHENA
BASIN AND THE GOODPASTER RIVER BASIN. GOES IR LOOP SUGGESTS THE
RAINFALL BAND IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN A LITTLE...BUT ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UP TO A HALF INCH IN
SOME AREAS.

GAGES ON THE CHENA RIVER NEAR TWO RIVERS AND BELOW HUNTS
CREEK ARE SHOWING THE INITIAL RISE ON THEIR HYDROGRAPHS. THE
SALCHA RIVER IS ALSO STARTING TO RISE...BUT IS STILL AT A
RELATIVELY LOW STAGE OF 8.0 FEET. THE GOODPASTER RIVER
CRESTED AT ABOUT 19.5 FEET EARLIER THIS MORNING...ABOUT 0.5 FOOT
BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT RIVER WILL
BE CANCELLED. WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE ALASKA RANGE
IN WESTERN ZONE 226 AND ZONE 225...MANY SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS
ARE LIKELY RISING AND SOME MAY BE NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL STAGE.
DENALI PARK HEADQUARTERS HAS REPORTED WATER FLOWING OVER THE ROAD
AT THE HOGAN CREEK CULVERT...MILE 21.2 ON THE PARK ROAD.

CURRENT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND OVER THE INTERIOR BEGINNING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
REBUILDING OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S CAN BE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE
EASTERN INTERIOR.

OVER THE WEST COAST...WESTERN INTERIOR...AND NORTHWEST
ALASKA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS
OVER MOST OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A WEAKENING
WEATHER FRONT CREEPS SLOWLY EASTWARD.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING RAINS HAVE OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN INTERIOR. WARMING AND DRYING TREND OVER THE INTERIOR WILL
BEGIN SATURDAY WITH THE REBUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THERE WILL
BE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR BEGINNING
TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE EASTERN INTERIOR TRENDS TO SOUTHEASTERLY...PROVIDING AN
INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO FUEL CONVECTION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEE MAIN DISCUSSION.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226.

DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ221-AKZ222.

&&

$$

RF JUL 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 022123
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
123 PM AKDT THU JUL 2 2015


.DISCUSSION...

GOES IR LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CENTER IS NOW CENTERED JUST NORTH
OF THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLE...CURRENT MODELS PROGGING A FAIRLY
RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT INTO NORTHERN CANADA...APPROACHING THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA/MANITOBA/ALBERTA BOUNDARY BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTERN ZONE
224-EASTERN ZONE 226 THROUGH THIS EVENING...BECOMING SPOTTY BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

FARTHER TO THE WEST...A SUBSTANTIAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND RAIN
EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN RANGE AND INTO THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR MORE HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE
LAST 36 HOURS IN NORTHWESTERN ZONE 224...THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
ZONE 222...ZONE 223...WESTERN ZONE 226...AND EASTERN ZONE 225.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL REPORTS AS OF NOON TODAY INCLUDE THE
FOLLOWING...

TOTATLANIKA RAWS                             2.49 INCHES
UPPER CHARLEY RIVER                          2.22 INCHES
EIELSON VISITOR CENTER                       2.14 INCHES
SALCHA RIVER NEAR RICHARDSON HIGHWAY         2.11 INCHES
UPPER CHENA DOME SNOWTEL                     1.98 INCHES
DENALI VISITOR CENTER                        1.85 INCHES
MCKINLEY PARK AIRPORT                        1.76 INCHES
TEUCHET CREEK SNOWTEL                        1.66 INCHES
BLAIR LAKES RAWS                             1.64 INCHES
CHENA RIVER NEAR TWO RIVERS                  1.55 INCHES
TOKLAT RAWS                                  1.55 INCHES

RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES HAVE FALLEN IN THE UPPER CHENA
BASIN AND THE GOODPASTER RIVER BASIN. GOES IR LOOP SUGGESTS THE
RAINFALL BAND IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN A LITTLE...BUT ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UP TO A HALF INCH IN
SOME AREAS.

GAGES ON THE CHENA RIVER NEAR TWO RIVERS AND BELOW HUNTS
CREEK ARE SHOWING THE INITIAL RISE ON THEIR HYDROGRAPHS. THE
SALCHA RIVER IS ALSO STARTING TO RISE...BUT IS STILL AT A
RELATIVELY LOW STAGE OF 8.0 FEET. THE GOODPASTER RIVER
CRESTED AT ABOUT 19.5 FEET EARLIER THIS MORNING...ABOUT 0.5 FOOT
BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT RIVER WILL
BE CANCELLED. WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE ALASKA RANGE
IN WESTERN ZONE 226 AND ZONE 225...MANY SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS
ARE LIKELY RISING AND SOME MAY BE NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL STAGE.
DENALI PARK HEADQUARTERS HAS REPORTED WATER FLOWING OVER THE ROAD
AT THE HOGAN CREEK CULVERT...MILE 21.2 ON THE PARK ROAD.

CURRENT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND OVER THE INTERIOR BEGINNING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
REBUILDING OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S CAN BE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE
EASTERN INTERIOR.

OVER THE WEST COAST...WESTERN INTERIOR...AND NORTHWEST
ALASKA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS
OVER MOST OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A WEAKENING
WEATHER FRONT CREEPS SLOWLY EASTWARD.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING RAINS HAVE OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN INTERIOR. WARMING AND DRYING TREND OVER THE INTERIOR WILL
BEGIN SATURDAY WITH THE REBUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THERE WILL
BE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR BEGINNING
TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE EASTERN INTERIOR TRENDS TO SOUTHEASTERLY...PROVIDING AN
INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO FUEL CONVECTION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEE MAIN DISCUSSION.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226.

DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ221-AKZ222.

&&

$$

RF JUL 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 022123
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
123 PM AKDT THU JUL 2 2015


.DISCUSSION...

GOES IR LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CENTER IS NOW CENTERED JUST NORTH
OF THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLE...CURRENT MODELS PROGGING A FAIRLY
RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT INTO NORTHERN CANADA...APPROACHING THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA/MANITOBA/ALBERTA BOUNDARY BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTERN ZONE
224-EASTERN ZONE 226 THROUGH THIS EVENING...BECOMING SPOTTY BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

FARTHER TO THE WEST...A SUBSTANTIAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND RAIN
EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN RANGE AND INTO THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR MORE HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE
LAST 36 HOURS IN NORTHWESTERN ZONE 224...THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
ZONE 222...ZONE 223...WESTERN ZONE 226...AND EASTERN ZONE 225.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL REPORTS AS OF NOON TODAY INCLUDE THE
FOLLOWING...

TOTATLANIKA RAWS                             2.49 INCHES
UPPER CHARLEY RIVER                          2.22 INCHES
EIELSON VISITOR CENTER                       2.14 INCHES
SALCHA RIVER NEAR RICHARDSON HIGHWAY         2.11 INCHES
UPPER CHENA DOME SNOWTEL                     1.98 INCHES
DENALI VISITOR CENTER                        1.85 INCHES
MCKINLEY PARK AIRPORT                        1.76 INCHES
TEUCHET CREEK SNOWTEL                        1.66 INCHES
BLAIR LAKES RAWS                             1.64 INCHES
CHENA RIVER NEAR TWO RIVERS                  1.55 INCHES
TOKLAT RAWS                                  1.55 INCHES

RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES HAVE FALLEN IN THE UPPER CHENA
BASIN AND THE GOODPASTER RIVER BASIN. GOES IR LOOP SUGGESTS THE
RAINFALL BAND IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN A LITTLE...BUT ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UP TO A HALF INCH IN
SOME AREAS.

GAGES ON THE CHENA RIVER NEAR TWO RIVERS AND BELOW HUNTS
CREEK ARE SHOWING THE INITIAL RISE ON THEIR HYDROGRAPHS. THE
SALCHA RIVER IS ALSO STARTING TO RISE...BUT IS STILL AT A
RELATIVELY LOW STAGE OF 8.0 FEET. THE GOODPASTER RIVER
CRESTED AT ABOUT 19.5 FEET EARLIER THIS MORNING...ABOUT 0.5 FOOT
BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT RIVER WILL
BE CANCELLED. WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE ALASKA RANGE
IN WESTERN ZONE 226 AND ZONE 225...MANY SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS
ARE LIKELY RISING AND SOME MAY BE NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL STAGE.
DENALI PARK HEADQUARTERS HAS REPORTED WATER FLOWING OVER THE ROAD
AT THE HOGAN CREEK CULVERT...MILE 21.2 ON THE PARK ROAD.

CURRENT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND OVER THE INTERIOR BEGINNING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
REBUILDING OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S CAN BE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE
EASTERN INTERIOR.

OVER THE WEST COAST...WESTERN INTERIOR...AND NORTHWEST
ALASKA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS
OVER MOST OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A WEAKENING
WEATHER FRONT CREEPS SLOWLY EASTWARD.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING RAINS HAVE OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN INTERIOR. WARMING AND DRYING TREND OVER THE INTERIOR WILL
BEGIN SATURDAY WITH THE REBUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THERE WILL
BE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR BEGINNING
TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE EASTERN INTERIOR TRENDS TO SOUTHEASTERLY...PROVIDING AN
INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO FUEL CONVECTION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEE MAIN DISCUSSION.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226.

DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ221-AKZ222.

&&

$$

RF JUL 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 021420
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
620 AM AKDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK WEATHER FRONT OFF OUR NORTHWEST COAST FROM BARROW SOUTHWEST
TO NEAR POINT HOPE THEN SOUTH THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT WILL MOVE
EAST TO LIE FROM ABOUT BARROW TO UNALAKLEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
IT WILL LIKELY BECOME DIFFUSE THEREAFTER...EVEN OVER THE ARCTIC
ZONES...BUT WILL LIKELY OOZE EASTWARD TO LIE FROM DEMARCATION
POINT SOUTHWEST AND WEST OVER THE BROOKS RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE PORTION OF THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT...THOUGH PROBABLY FUELING SOME
CONVECTION.

OUR MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS WITH THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. THE MODELS
HAVE HAVE BEEN RIGHT ABOUT THE HEAVY RAIN...BUT HAVE BEEN LESS
SUCCESSFUL IN LOCATING THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION. THE MODEL RUNS
THAT WE SAW TUESDAY EVENING DID NOT SHOW SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IN
THE CHENA BASIN WEDNESDAY AND OVERNIGHT. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT 1.0
TO 1.5 INCHES HAS FALLEN FROM MOOSE CREEK ALL THE WAY UP TO THE
HEADWATERS. WE NOTE THAT THE ECMF...DESPITE ITS LOWER SPATIAL
RESOLUTION...HAS RECENTLY BEEN OUTPERFORMING THE U.S. MODELS IN
MOVING THE AXIS FARTHER WEST. WE HAVE NO REASON TO SUPPOSE THAT
IT WILL NOT CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM...AND IT IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER TO
MOVE THE PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE EAST THAN THE U.S. MODELS.

THE RAIN THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN IS NOT LIKELY TO CAUSE SERIOUS
PROBLEMS IN THE CHENA AND SALCHA BASINS...GIVEN THE SOIL MOISTURE
DEFICIT. ANOTHER HALF INCH MAY FALL IN THE UPPER CHENA BASIN
AND THE SALCHA BASIN TODAY THOUGH.

THE SITUATION IS PROBLEMATIC PARTICULARLY IN THE GOODPASTER AND
POSSIBLY THE UPPER SALCHA DRAINAGES. THE GOODPASTER DRAINAGE HAS
APPARENTLY NOT SEEN MUCH RAINFALL IN THE PAST 8 HOURS OR SO...IT
HAS MOSTLY BEEN TO THE NORTH AND WEST...AND THE GAUGE HAS STALLED
JUST A BIT BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE. WE MAY WELL SEE ANOTHER SHARP
RISE THERE THIS EVENING...AS THE SERIOUS RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO
THE AREA TODAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MANY OF THE FIRES IN THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR ARE DUE FOR A GOOD
SOAKING...IF THEY HAVEN`T GOT IT YET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DISCUSSED ABOVE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ223-AKZ224.

DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ221.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

$$

DJH JUL 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 021420
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
620 AM AKDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK WEATHER FRONT OFF OUR NORTHWEST COAST FROM BARROW SOUTHWEST
TO NEAR POINT HOPE THEN SOUTH THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT WILL MOVE
EAST TO LIE FROM ABOUT BARROW TO UNALAKLEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
IT WILL LIKELY BECOME DIFFUSE THEREAFTER...EVEN OVER THE ARCTIC
ZONES...BUT WILL LIKELY OOZE EASTWARD TO LIE FROM DEMARCATION
POINT SOUTHWEST AND WEST OVER THE BROOKS RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE PORTION OF THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT...THOUGH PROBABLY FUELING SOME
CONVECTION.

OUR MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS WITH THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. THE MODELS
HAVE HAVE BEEN RIGHT ABOUT THE HEAVY RAIN...BUT HAVE BEEN LESS
SUCCESSFUL IN LOCATING THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION. THE MODEL RUNS
THAT WE SAW TUESDAY EVENING DID NOT SHOW SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IN
THE CHENA BASIN WEDNESDAY AND OVERNIGHT. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT 1.0
TO 1.5 INCHES HAS FALLEN FROM MOOSE CREEK ALL THE WAY UP TO THE
HEADWATERS. WE NOTE THAT THE ECMF...DESPITE ITS LOWER SPATIAL
RESOLUTION...HAS RECENTLY BEEN OUTPERFORMING THE U.S. MODELS IN
MOVING THE AXIS FARTHER WEST. WE HAVE NO REASON TO SUPPOSE THAT
IT WILL NOT CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM...AND IT IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER TO
MOVE THE PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE EAST THAN THE U.S. MODELS.

THE RAIN THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN IS NOT LIKELY TO CAUSE SERIOUS
PROBLEMS IN THE CHENA AND SALCHA BASINS...GIVEN THE SOIL MOISTURE
DEFICIT. ANOTHER HALF INCH MAY FALL IN THE UPPER CHENA BASIN
AND THE SALCHA BASIN TODAY THOUGH.

THE SITUATION IS PROBLEMATIC PARTICULARLY IN THE GOODPASTER AND
POSSIBLY THE UPPER SALCHA DRAINAGES. THE GOODPASTER DRAINAGE HAS
APPARENTLY NOT SEEN MUCH RAINFALL IN THE PAST 8 HOURS OR SO...IT
HAS MOSTLY BEEN TO THE NORTH AND WEST...AND THE GAUGE HAS STALLED
JUST A BIT BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE. WE MAY WELL SEE ANOTHER SHARP
RISE THERE THIS EVENING...AS THE SERIOUS RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO
THE AREA TODAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MANY OF THE FIRES IN THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR ARE DUE FOR A GOOD
SOAKING...IF THEY HAVEN`T GOT IT YET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DISCUSSED ABOVE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ223-AKZ224.

DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ221.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

$$

DJH JUL 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 021420
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
620 AM AKDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK WEATHER FRONT OFF OUR NORTHWEST COAST FROM BARROW SOUTHWEST
TO NEAR POINT HOPE THEN SOUTH THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT WILL MOVE
EAST TO LIE FROM ABOUT BARROW TO UNALAKLEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
IT WILL LIKELY BECOME DIFFUSE THEREAFTER...EVEN OVER THE ARCTIC
ZONES...BUT WILL LIKELY OOZE EASTWARD TO LIE FROM DEMARCATION
POINT SOUTHWEST AND WEST OVER THE BROOKS RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE PORTION OF THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT...THOUGH PROBABLY FUELING SOME
CONVECTION.

OUR MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS WITH THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. THE MODELS
HAVE HAVE BEEN RIGHT ABOUT THE HEAVY RAIN...BUT HAVE BEEN LESS
SUCCESSFUL IN LOCATING THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION. THE MODEL RUNS
THAT WE SAW TUESDAY EVENING DID NOT SHOW SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IN
THE CHENA BASIN WEDNESDAY AND OVERNIGHT. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT 1.0
TO 1.5 INCHES HAS FALLEN FROM MOOSE CREEK ALL THE WAY UP TO THE
HEADWATERS. WE NOTE THAT THE ECMF...DESPITE ITS LOWER SPATIAL
RESOLUTION...HAS RECENTLY BEEN OUTPERFORMING THE U.S. MODELS IN
MOVING THE AXIS FARTHER WEST. WE HAVE NO REASON TO SUPPOSE THAT
IT WILL NOT CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM...AND IT IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER TO
MOVE THE PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE EAST THAN THE U.S. MODELS.

THE RAIN THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN IS NOT LIKELY TO CAUSE SERIOUS
PROBLEMS IN THE CHENA AND SALCHA BASINS...GIVEN THE SOIL MOISTURE
DEFICIT. ANOTHER HALF INCH MAY FALL IN THE UPPER CHENA BASIN
AND THE SALCHA BASIN TODAY THOUGH.

THE SITUATION IS PROBLEMATIC PARTICULARLY IN THE GOODPASTER AND
POSSIBLY THE UPPER SALCHA DRAINAGES. THE GOODPASTER DRAINAGE HAS
APPARENTLY NOT SEEN MUCH RAINFALL IN THE PAST 8 HOURS OR SO...IT
HAS MOSTLY BEEN TO THE NORTH AND WEST...AND THE GAUGE HAS STALLED
JUST A BIT BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE. WE MAY WELL SEE ANOTHER SHARP
RISE THERE THIS EVENING...AS THE SERIOUS RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO
THE AREA TODAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MANY OF THE FIRES IN THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR ARE DUE FOR A GOOD
SOAKING...IF THEY HAVEN`T GOT IT YET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DISCUSSED ABOVE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ223-AKZ224.

DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ221.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

$$

DJH JUL 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 012310
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
310 PM AKDT WED JUL 1 2015


.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AGREE WELL OUT THROUGH 72
HOURS/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAJOR WEATHER FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE
CONTINUES TO BE THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR
AND THE ALASKA RANGE.

A STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 54N/149W IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY MORNING
AS A NEW UPPER LOW CENTER DEVELOPS JUST TO THE NORTH OVER THE
SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY. THE NEW CENTER WILL CONTINUE ON EASTWARD
INTO CANADA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD...BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM
DEADHORSE TO RUBY TO BETHEL. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE AXIS OF THE WEAK TROUGH REMNANT
EXTENDING FROM OLD CROW TO MINCHUMINA TO BETHEL. ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO AREAS NEAR
THE BROOKS RANGE AND NORTHWARD.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST ALASKA THIS
EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ARCTIC SLOPE THROUGH
THURSDAY WHILE WEAKENING. THE FRONT WILL BRING A SHORT PERIOD
OF RAIN TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE ARCTIC COAST
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...GFS AND ECMWF RUNS BEGIN TO REBUILD THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE RIDGE SHARPENING AND MOVING TO NEAR THE ALCAN
BORDER BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR...BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC SLOPE.
THE 12Z GFS RUNS DEVELOPS A WEAK UPPER LOW BURROWING EASTWARD
INTO THE RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH LOWER
850 MB TEMPERATURES AND GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS
TOO COOL. THIS IDEA IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF OR ANY OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING RAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY OVER MOST THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AND THE ALASKA RANGE. NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ONGOING FIRES IN THE INTERIOR WILL LIKELY BECOME MUCH MORE
ACTIVE WITH THE HIGH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND LOWER AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CURRENT GFS AND NAM MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AREAS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
ZONE 224...THE WESTERN HALF OF ZONE 226...ZONE 223...AND EXTREME
EASTERN ZONE 225. IN THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES IN EXTREME EASTERN ZONE 225...
MOST OF ZONE 223 WEST OF DELTA JUNCTION...AND IN ZONE 226 WEST
OF THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY.


THE HIGHEST 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS REPORTED AS OF NOON TODAY...

DENALI VISITOR CENTER       0.87 INCHES
DENALI PARK AIRPORT         0.94 INCHES
GOLD KING RAWS              0.80 INCHES
DONNELLY RAWS               0.78 INCHES
SALCHA RIVER HADS           0.75 INCHES

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ223-AKZ224.

SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226.

DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ221.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ230.
&&

$$

RF JUL 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 012310
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
310 PM AKDT WED JUL 1 2015


.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AGREE WELL OUT THROUGH 72
HOURS/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAJOR WEATHER FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE
CONTINUES TO BE THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR
AND THE ALASKA RANGE.

A STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 54N/149W IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY MORNING
AS A NEW UPPER LOW CENTER DEVELOPS JUST TO THE NORTH OVER THE
SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY. THE NEW CENTER WILL CONTINUE ON EASTWARD
INTO CANADA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD...BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM
DEADHORSE TO RUBY TO BETHEL. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE AXIS OF THE WEAK TROUGH REMNANT
EXTENDING FROM OLD CROW TO MINCHUMINA TO BETHEL. ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO AREAS NEAR
THE BROOKS RANGE AND NORTHWARD.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST ALASKA THIS
EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ARCTIC SLOPE THROUGH
THURSDAY WHILE WEAKENING. THE FRONT WILL BRING A SHORT PERIOD
OF RAIN TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE ARCTIC COAST
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...GFS AND ECMWF RUNS BEGIN TO REBUILD THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE RIDGE SHARPENING AND MOVING TO NEAR THE ALCAN
BORDER BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR...BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC SLOPE.
THE 12Z GFS RUNS DEVELOPS A WEAK UPPER LOW BURROWING EASTWARD
INTO THE RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH LOWER
850 MB TEMPERATURES AND GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS
TOO COOL. THIS IDEA IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF OR ANY OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING RAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY OVER MOST THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AND THE ALASKA RANGE. NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ONGOING FIRES IN THE INTERIOR WILL LIKELY BECOME MUCH MORE
ACTIVE WITH THE HIGH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND LOWER AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CURRENT GFS AND NAM MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AREAS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
ZONE 224...THE WESTERN HALF OF ZONE 226...ZONE 223...AND EXTREME
EASTERN ZONE 225. IN THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES IN EXTREME EASTERN ZONE 225...
MOST OF ZONE 223 WEST OF DELTA JUNCTION...AND IN ZONE 226 WEST
OF THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY.


THE HIGHEST 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS REPORTED AS OF NOON TODAY...

DENALI VISITOR CENTER       0.87 INCHES
DENALI PARK AIRPORT         0.94 INCHES
GOLD KING RAWS              0.80 INCHES
DONNELLY RAWS               0.78 INCHES
SALCHA RIVER HADS           0.75 INCHES

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ223-AKZ224.

SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226.

DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ221.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ230.
&&

$$

RF JUL 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 012306
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
306 PM AKDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AGREE WELL OUT THROUGH 72
HOURS/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAJOR WEATHER FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE
CONTINUES TO BE THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR
AND THE ALASKA RANGE.

A STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 54N/149W IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY MORNING
AS A NEW UPPER LOW CENTER DEVELOPS JUST TO THE NORTH OVER THE
SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY. THE NEW CENTER WILL CONTINUE ON EASTWARD
INTO CANADA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD...BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM
DEADHORSE TO RUBY TO BETHEL. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE AXIS OF THE WEAK TROUGH REMNANT
EXTENDING FROM OLD CROW TO MINCHUMINA TO BETHEL. ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO AREAS NEAR
THE BROOKS RANGE AND NORTHWARD.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST ALASKA THIS
EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ARCTIC SLOPE THROUGH
THURSDAY WHILE WEAKENING. THE FRONT WILL BRING A SHORT PERIOD
OF RAIN TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE ARCTIC COAST
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...GFS AND ECMWF RUNS BEGIN TO REBUILD THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE RIDGE SHARPENING AND MOVING TO NEAR THE ALCAN
BORDER BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR...BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC SLOPE.
THE 12Z GFS RUNS DEVELOPS A WEAK UPPER LOW BURROWING EASTWARD
INTO THE RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH LOWER
850 MB TEMPERATURES AND GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS
TOO COOL. THIS IDEA IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF OR ANY OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING RAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY OVER MOST THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AND THE ALASKA RANGE. NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ONGOING FIRES IN THE INTERIOR WILL LIKELY BECOME MUCH MORE
ACTIVE WITH THE HIGH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND LOWER AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CURRENT GFS AND NAM MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AREAS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
ZONE 224...THE WESTERN HALF OF ZONE 226...ZONE 223...AND EXTREME
EASTERN ZONE 225. IN THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES IN EXTREME EASTERN ZONE 225...
MOST OF ZONE 223 WEST OF DELTA JUNCTION...AND IN ZONE 226 WEST
OF THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY.


THE HIGHEST 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS REPORTED AS OF NOON TODAY...

DENALI VISITOR CENTER       0.87 INCHES
DENALI PARK AIRPORT         0.94 INCHES
GOLD KING RAWS              0.80 INCHES
DONNELLY RAWS               0.78 INCHES
SALCHA RIVER HADS           0.75 INCHES

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ223-AKZ224.

SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226.

DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ221.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ230.
&&

$$

RF JUL 15


















DISCUSSION...


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...


&&

.HYDROLOGY...


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ223-AKZ224.

DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ221.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ230.
&&

$$

RF JUL 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 012306
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
306 PM AKDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AGREE WELL OUT THROUGH 72
HOURS/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAJOR WEATHER FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE
CONTINUES TO BE THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR
AND THE ALASKA RANGE.

A STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 54N/149W IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY MORNING
AS A NEW UPPER LOW CENTER DEVELOPS JUST TO THE NORTH OVER THE
SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY. THE NEW CENTER WILL CONTINUE ON EASTWARD
INTO CANADA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD...BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM
DEADHORSE TO RUBY TO BETHEL. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE AXIS OF THE WEAK TROUGH REMNANT
EXTENDING FROM OLD CROW TO MINCHUMINA TO BETHEL. ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO AREAS NEAR
THE BROOKS RANGE AND NORTHWARD.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST ALASKA THIS
EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ARCTIC SLOPE THROUGH
THURSDAY WHILE WEAKENING. THE FRONT WILL BRING A SHORT PERIOD
OF RAIN TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE ARCTIC COAST
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...GFS AND ECMWF RUNS BEGIN TO REBUILD THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE RIDGE SHARPENING AND MOVING TO NEAR THE ALCAN
BORDER BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR...BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC SLOPE.
THE 12Z GFS RUNS DEVELOPS A WEAK UPPER LOW BURROWING EASTWARD
INTO THE RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH LOWER
850 MB TEMPERATURES AND GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS
TOO COOL. THIS IDEA IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF OR ANY OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING RAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY OVER MOST THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AND THE ALASKA RANGE. NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ONGOING FIRES IN THE INTERIOR WILL LIKELY BECOME MUCH MORE
ACTIVE WITH THE HIGH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND LOWER AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CURRENT GFS AND NAM MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AREAS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
ZONE 224...THE WESTERN HALF OF ZONE 226...ZONE 223...AND EXTREME
EASTERN ZONE 225. IN THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES IN EXTREME EASTERN ZONE 225...
MOST OF ZONE 223 WEST OF DELTA JUNCTION...AND IN ZONE 226 WEST
OF THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY.


THE HIGHEST 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS REPORTED AS OF NOON TODAY...

DENALI VISITOR CENTER       0.87 INCHES
DENALI PARK AIRPORT         0.94 INCHES
GOLD KING RAWS              0.80 INCHES
DONNELLY RAWS               0.78 INCHES
SALCHA RIVER HADS           0.75 INCHES

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ223-AKZ224.

SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226.

DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ221.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ230.
&&

$$

RF JUL 15


















DISCUSSION...


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...


&&

.HYDROLOGY...


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ223-AKZ224.

DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ221.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ230.
&&

$$

RF JUL 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 012306
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
306 PM AKDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AGREE WELL OUT THROUGH 72
HOURS/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAJOR WEATHER FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE
CONTINUES TO BE THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR
AND THE ALASKA RANGE.

A STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 54N/149W IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY MORNING
AS A NEW UPPER LOW CENTER DEVELOPS JUST TO THE NORTH OVER THE
SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY. THE NEW CENTER WILL CONTINUE ON EASTWARD
INTO CANADA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD...BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM
DEADHORSE TO RUBY TO BETHEL. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE AXIS OF THE WEAK TROUGH REMNANT
EXTENDING FROM OLD CROW TO MINCHUMINA TO BETHEL. ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO AREAS NEAR
THE BROOKS RANGE AND NORTHWARD.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST ALASKA THIS
EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ARCTIC SLOPE THROUGH
THURSDAY WHILE WEAKENING. THE FRONT WILL BRING A SHORT PERIOD
OF RAIN TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE ARCTIC COAST
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...GFS AND ECMWF RUNS BEGIN TO REBUILD THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE RIDGE SHARPENING AND MOVING TO NEAR THE ALCAN
BORDER BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR...BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC SLOPE.
THE 12Z GFS RUNS DEVELOPS A WEAK UPPER LOW BURROWING EASTWARD
INTO THE RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH LOWER
850 MB TEMPERATURES AND GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS
TOO COOL. THIS IDEA IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF OR ANY OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING RAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY OVER MOST THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AND THE ALASKA RANGE. NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ONGOING FIRES IN THE INTERIOR WILL LIKELY BECOME MUCH MORE
ACTIVE WITH THE HIGH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND LOWER AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CURRENT GFS AND NAM MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AREAS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
ZONE 224...THE WESTERN HALF OF ZONE 226...ZONE 223...AND EXTREME
EASTERN ZONE 225. IN THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES IN EXTREME EASTERN ZONE 225...
MOST OF ZONE 223 WEST OF DELTA JUNCTION...AND IN ZONE 226 WEST
OF THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY.


THE HIGHEST 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS REPORTED AS OF NOON TODAY...

DENALI VISITOR CENTER       0.87 INCHES
DENALI PARK AIRPORT         0.94 INCHES
GOLD KING RAWS              0.80 INCHES
DONNELLY RAWS               0.78 INCHES
SALCHA RIVER HADS           0.75 INCHES

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ223-AKZ224.

SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226.

DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ221.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ230.
&&

$$

RF JUL 15


















DISCUSSION...


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...


&&

.HYDROLOGY...


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ223-AKZ224.

DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ221.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ230.
&&

$$

RF JUL 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 011006
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
206 AM AKDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND VERIFIED WELL AGAINST THE 00Z AND 06Z
ANALYSIS. MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALASKA RANGE NOW THAT THE EVENT HAS STARTED.

THE 00Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM12 AND
GFS MODELS IN DEVELOPING A HEAVY RAIN CORRIDOR ALONG A LINE AND 75
MILES EITHER SIDE FROM EAGLE SOUTHWEST TO DELTA JUNCTION TO DENALI
PARK. THIS IS SLIGHTLY WEST BY ABOUT 50 MILES AS COMPARED TO THE
RECENT NAM12 AND GFS SOLUTIONS BUT AROUND 100 MILES EAST OF THE
RECENT ECMWF SOLUTIONS. LATEST POSITION OF THE HEAVY RAIN CORRIDOR
NOW INCLUDES THE UPPER CHENA BASIN AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF ZONE
222. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE UPPER CHENA BASIN FOR HEAVY RAIN AS
THE EVENT UNFOLDS AS CURRENT WATCHES AND ADVISORIES ARE CLUSTERED
TO THE EAST. LATEST MODEL RUNS STILL INDICATE BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES OF RAIN FALLING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH HEAVIER
BULLSEYES ALONG THE CORRIDOR OUTLINED ABOVE. ONGOING FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE GOODPASTER RIVER LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HEAVIEST RAIN
FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE ENTIRE GOODPASTER BASIN. ONGOING
SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH
FORECASTED RAIN FALL AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ADDITIONAL AREAS TO THE WEST...CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS SITUATION
UNFOLDS.

A SHORTWAVE ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTH AND EAST AND WILL BE LOCATED ALONG A BARROW TO KOTZEBUE
LINE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. THE WESTERN INTERIOR CONTINUES TO BE WARM
RELATIVELY DRY AND SMOKEY WITH DENSE SMOKE STILL COVERING ZONE
221. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE
AREAS TODAY.

MODELS EXHIBIT INCREASING SPREAD IN THE MID TERM WITH STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF BUILDING RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
MERGING WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER SIBERIA. MODEL SPREAD
BECOMES LARGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF BECOMING ESSENTIALLY 180 DEGREES OUT OF PHASE. MADE LITTLE
CHANGES TO LONG TERM FORECAST PACKAGE WITH ONLY SLIGHT DOWNWARD
NUDGES TO THE TEMPERATURES BASED IN LARGE PART ON ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS WHICH SEEMED PRUDENT WITH LARGE MODEL TO MODEL AS WELL
AS RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONLY A SMALL AREA OF MIN RH VALUES FORECASTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WHICH IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE
AND NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS IN THE WESTERN YUKON WEST WINDS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
CHANNELED AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH HOWEVER MIN RH
VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA. IRONICALLY AN
INCREASING CONCERN FOR FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR WHERE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS WILL BE INCREASING WATER LEVELS ALONG SMALL STEAMS AND RIVERS
AND TRAFFICABILITY ISSUES THAT HIGH RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS
PRESENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONGOING ADVISORIES AND WATCHES LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WITH
ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAIN CORRIDOR WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES AND LOCALLY
HEAVIER RAIN FALL IS EXPECTED. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF FAIRBANKS TO INCLUDE THE UPPER CHENA
BASIN.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ223-AKZ224.

DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ221.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

$$

CCC JUL 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 011006
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
206 AM AKDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND VERIFIED WELL AGAINST THE 00Z AND 06Z
ANALYSIS. MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALASKA RANGE NOW THAT THE EVENT HAS STARTED.

THE 00Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM12 AND
GFS MODELS IN DEVELOPING A HEAVY RAIN CORRIDOR ALONG A LINE AND 75
MILES EITHER SIDE FROM EAGLE SOUTHWEST TO DELTA JUNCTION TO DENALI
PARK. THIS IS SLIGHTLY WEST BY ABOUT 50 MILES AS COMPARED TO THE
RECENT NAM12 AND GFS SOLUTIONS BUT AROUND 100 MILES EAST OF THE
RECENT ECMWF SOLUTIONS. LATEST POSITION OF THE HEAVY RAIN CORRIDOR
NOW INCLUDES THE UPPER CHENA BASIN AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF ZONE
222. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE UPPER CHENA BASIN FOR HEAVY RAIN AS
THE EVENT UNFOLDS AS CURRENT WATCHES AND ADVISORIES ARE CLUSTERED
TO THE EAST. LATEST MODEL RUNS STILL INDICATE BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES OF RAIN FALLING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH HEAVIER
BULLSEYES ALONG THE CORRIDOR OUTLINED ABOVE. ONGOING FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE GOODPASTER RIVER LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HEAVIEST RAIN
FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE ENTIRE GOODPASTER BASIN. ONGOING
SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH
FORECASTED RAIN FALL AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ADDITIONAL AREAS TO THE WEST...CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS SITUATION
UNFOLDS.

A SHORTWAVE ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTH AND EAST AND WILL BE LOCATED ALONG A BARROW TO KOTZEBUE
LINE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. THE WESTERN INTERIOR CONTINUES TO BE WARM
RELATIVELY DRY AND SMOKEY WITH DENSE SMOKE STILL COVERING ZONE
221. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE
AREAS TODAY.

MODELS EXHIBIT INCREASING SPREAD IN THE MID TERM WITH STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF BUILDING RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
MERGING WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER SIBERIA. MODEL SPREAD
BECOMES LARGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF BECOMING ESSENTIALLY 180 DEGREES OUT OF PHASE. MADE LITTLE
CHANGES TO LONG TERM FORECAST PACKAGE WITH ONLY SLIGHT DOWNWARD
NUDGES TO THE TEMPERATURES BASED IN LARGE PART ON ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS WHICH SEEMED PRUDENT WITH LARGE MODEL TO MODEL AS WELL
AS RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONLY A SMALL AREA OF MIN RH VALUES FORECASTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WHICH IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE
AND NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS IN THE WESTERN YUKON WEST WINDS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
CHANNELED AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH HOWEVER MIN RH
VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA. IRONICALLY AN
INCREASING CONCERN FOR FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR WHERE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS WILL BE INCREASING WATER LEVELS ALONG SMALL STEAMS AND RIVERS
AND TRAFFICABILITY ISSUES THAT HIGH RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS
PRESENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONGOING ADVISORIES AND WATCHES LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WITH
ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAIN CORRIDOR WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES AND LOCALLY
HEAVIER RAIN FALL IS EXPECTED. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF FAIRBANKS TO INCLUDE THE UPPER CHENA
BASIN.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ223-AKZ224.

DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ221.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

$$

CCC JUL 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 302322
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
322 PM AKDT TUE JUN 30 2015


.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN EVENT FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL BE THE IMMINENT HEAVY
RAIN EPISODE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AND THE ALASKA
RANGE. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMERGING FROM A
LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE TROUGH
INITIALLY WILL EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN YUKON
TERRITORY TONIGHT...THEN SWING TOWARDS THE ALCAN BORDER IN ZONES
224-226 BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY WED AFTERNOON...THEN
CONTINUE ON EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST CANADA.

IN A RATHER BROAD SENSE...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM
CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE AREAS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL WHILE THE ECMWF PLACES THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
MAXIMUM FARTHER TO THE WEST. WE PREFER THE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS
BASED ON ITS BETTER PERFORMANCE IN THE PREVIOUS RAINFALL
EVENT...AND REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS AND
REASONABLY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ANY GIVEN AREA
FOR ANY GIVEN TIME PERIOD.

THE HEAVIEST 48 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE OVER THE UPPER YUKON VALLEY AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY NORTHWEST
OF THE TAYLOR HIGHWAY...MOST OF THE DELTANA ZONE...THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE/ZONE 226...AND FROM THE RAILBELT
AREA EASTWARD IN DENALI/ZONE 225. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP
TO 3 INCHES IN ZONES 224 AND 226. LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF ZONES 223-224-225-226. IN ZONE
222...RAINFALL TOTALS COULD RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.25 INCH JUST
SOUTHEAST OF EIELSON TO AROUND 1 INCH IN AREAS NEAR THE LOWER
SALCHA RIVER. LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
REMAINDER OF ZONE 222. A SIGNIFICANT RISE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON
THE SALCHA RIVER BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING IT TO REACH FLOOD STAGE
AT THIS TIME.

WE WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE GOODPASTER RIVER AND SMALL
STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR THE HEAVY RAIN AREAS IN ZONES
223-224-226 AND THE RAILBELT AREA EASTWARD IN ZONE 225.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN
INTERIOR...EASTERN BROOKS RANGE...EASTERN INTERIOR ARCTIC
SLOPE...AND IN ZONE 227 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN ZONE 224...EASTERN ZONE 222...AND EXTREME
EASTERN ZONE 220.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ALASKA MAINLAND THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO AREAS NORTH OF
THE BROOKS RANGE CREST.

RECENT EXTENDED MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS AND GENERALLY POOR RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY. THIS BEING SAID...THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
PREFERRED FOR THE LONGER RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECASTS.
A PERIOD OF VERY WARM WEATHER OVER MOST AREAS IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS
ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN INTERIOR
AND THE ALASKA RANGE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEE MAIN DISCUSSION.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ221.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226.

FLOOD WATCH FOR THE GOODPASTER RIVER IN AKZ223-AKZ224.

&&

$$

RF JUN 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 302322
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
322 PM AKDT TUE JUN 30 2015


.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN EVENT FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL BE THE IMMINENT HEAVY
RAIN EPISODE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AND THE ALASKA
RANGE. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMERGING FROM A
LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE TROUGH
INITIALLY WILL EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN YUKON
TERRITORY TONIGHT...THEN SWING TOWARDS THE ALCAN BORDER IN ZONES
224-226 BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY WED AFTERNOON...THEN
CONTINUE ON EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST CANADA.

IN A RATHER BROAD SENSE...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM
CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE AREAS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL WHILE THE ECMWF PLACES THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
MAXIMUM FARTHER TO THE WEST. WE PREFER THE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS
BASED ON ITS BETTER PERFORMANCE IN THE PREVIOUS RAINFALL
EVENT...AND REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS AND
REASONABLY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ANY GIVEN AREA
FOR ANY GIVEN TIME PERIOD.

THE HEAVIEST 48 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE OVER THE UPPER YUKON VALLEY AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY NORTHWEST
OF THE TAYLOR HIGHWAY...MOST OF THE DELTANA ZONE...THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE/ZONE 226...AND FROM THE RAILBELT
AREA EASTWARD IN DENALI/ZONE 225. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP
TO 3 INCHES IN ZONES 224 AND 226. LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF ZONES 223-224-225-226. IN ZONE
222...RAINFALL TOTALS COULD RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.25 INCH JUST
SOUTHEAST OF EIELSON TO AROUND 1 INCH IN AREAS NEAR THE LOWER
SALCHA RIVER. LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
REMAINDER OF ZONE 222. A SIGNIFICANT RISE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON
THE SALCHA RIVER BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING IT TO REACH FLOOD STAGE
AT THIS TIME.

WE WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE GOODPASTER RIVER AND SMALL
STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR THE HEAVY RAIN AREAS IN ZONES
223-224-226 AND THE RAILBELT AREA EASTWARD IN ZONE 225.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN
INTERIOR...EASTERN BROOKS RANGE...EASTERN INTERIOR ARCTIC
SLOPE...AND IN ZONE 227 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN ZONE 224...EASTERN ZONE 222...AND EXTREME
EASTERN ZONE 220.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ALASKA MAINLAND THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO AREAS NORTH OF
THE BROOKS RANGE CREST.

RECENT EXTENDED MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS AND GENERALLY POOR RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY. THIS BEING SAID...THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
PREFERRED FOR THE LONGER RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECASTS.
A PERIOD OF VERY WARM WEATHER OVER MOST AREAS IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS
ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN INTERIOR
AND THE ALASKA RANGE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEE MAIN DISCUSSION.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ221.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226.

FLOOD WATCH FOR THE GOODPASTER RIVER IN AKZ223-AKZ224.

&&

$$

RF JUN 15





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