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000
FXAK69 PAFG 232206
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
206 PM AKDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL LOW
SOMEWHERE NEAR BARROW WILL MOVE BACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO ABOUT THE
BERING STRAIT BY EARLY THU MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE WESTWARD AND
DISSIPATE BY SAT MORNING. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE STATE THROUGH SAT BEFORE RIDGING BEGINS
TO POKE BACK IN FROM THE EAST.

NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN UP
ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER AND THEN THROUGH THE INTERIOR AND THEN
ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST AND FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND UP OVER THE
WEST COAST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR.

THE SHORT WAVES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME INSTABILITY OVER PARTS OF
THE INTERIOR WHICH MAY SPAWN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HERE AND
THERE.

WINDS OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY LATER THU.
WINDS MAY CREEP UP IN THE EASTERN ARCTIC TONIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT
REMAIN INTO THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON THU AND FRI AS A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH EASTERN INTERIOR BRING SOME
MOISTURE WITH THEM.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

CF APR 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 231204
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
404 AM AKDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...CURRENTLY TWO CENTERS OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ONE A 546
DAM HIGH STILL OVER THE CENTER OF THE STATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
SINCE THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER 546 DAM HIGH SOUTH OF BANKS
ISLAND. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF BARROW WILL NOT MAKE
IT OVER THE RIDGE AND SINK BACK DOWN TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE
SEWARD PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA AND
ALONG THE BERING STRAIT ON THURSDAY.

SURFACE...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS.
A 986 MB LOW ABOUT 175 NM NORTHEAST OF ADAK WILL WEAKEN AND FILL
ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY. A 1034 MB HIGH IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST
OF BANKS ISLAND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE
STATE. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW FROM BARROW WEST THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE EASTERLY
FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH SLOPE WITH STRATUS FOG AND
FLURRIES LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

WEST COAST...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS BACK DOWN ACROSS
NORTHWEST ALASKA EXPECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST OVER
THE BERING STRAIT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE BERING STRAIT AND SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND ON THURSDAY.

INTERIOR...SNOW MELT CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR HIGHS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
THERMAL TROUGH ALSO ENHANCED BY A SERIES OF EASTERLY WAVES
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST BUT ONLY LOW TOP CONVECTION EXPECTED
AND NO LIGHTNING.

FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT RH VALUES IN THE 20S AND 30S AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VALUES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

JK APR 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 222337
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
337 PM AKDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PUSHING TO NEAR POINT LAY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE TO ABOUT JUST
EAST OF BARROW BY WED MORNING BEFORE BEING TURNED AWAY BY THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND BEING SENT BACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE BERING
STRAIT BY THU MORNING. ON ITS RETURN TRIP THOUGH IT WILL NOT
SPREAD MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH IT THOUGH.

CURRENTLY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA IS SPREADING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER WHILE IT MAKES
ITS WAY TO NEAR BARROW.

A SERIES OF EASTERLY WAVES WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND WILL PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR SOME SHOWERS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER ZONE 213 AREA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
WED AND THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER WED NIGHT AS THE LOW IN THE
BERING FILLS RAPIDLY AND THEN DISSIPATES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES OVER SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE
MOIST AIR MASS AS MOISTURE COMES IN VIA SHORT WAVES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

CF APR 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 221457
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
657 AM AKDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...CURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BERING STRAIT
IS MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE TODAY. THIS
LOW IS PRODUCING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA
THIS MORNING AND OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

SURFACE...A 979 MB LOW IN THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST ON TUESDAY TO 100 NM NORTHEAST OF ATKA AND WEAKEN.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM WRANGEL ISLAND TO BANKS ISLAND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

WEST COAST...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVER THE SEWARD
PENINSULA THIS MORNING BUT CONTINUE FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING. DRYER CONDITIONS FOR MOST
OF THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BERING STRAIT WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS BARROW BY THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIGHT ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. PATCHY STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE WITH THE EASTERLY
FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

INTERIOR...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CAP SHOWER ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTHERN
BORDER. RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR ON
THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVES MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND CREATE SOME
INSTABILITY.

FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUAL DRYING OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR TODAY.
RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER IN THE 20S TO MID 30S THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ245.
&&

$$

APR 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 212307
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
307 PM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SIMILAR THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME STEP...THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ARE AGREEING MORE BUT THE NAM
BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING UP THE WEST COAST AROUND THE PERIMETER OF
THE RIDGE AND KEEPS THE UPPER LOW AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DROPS
IT BACK DOWN SOUTH TO NEAR POINT HOPE BY EARLY THU MORNING.

THE CURRENT SHORT WAVE MOVING UP THE WEST COAST WILL BE THE LAST
OF THE ORGANIZED SYSTEMS THROUGH WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE END OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST APPEARS TO BE THE EXTENT
OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLACK OFF ON THE WEST COAST LATE TUE AS WELL
AS THE ARCTIC COAST. THE LOW NEAR THE ALEUTIANS WILL FILL AS IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUAL DRYING OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR. RH
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER IN THE TEENS TO MID 30S THROUGH THE
WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN INTERIOR.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

CF APR 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 211358
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
558 AM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...CURRENTLY A 546 DAM HIGH PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE INTERIOR AND WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO MOST OF THE
STATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA PROVIDING
FOR PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR
SEWARD PENINSULA AND NORTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THE HIGH OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD CAP ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AT LEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FORM
SIBERIA TO WRANGEL ISLAND TO BANKS ISLAND AND IS FORECASTED TO
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS WELL.

WEST COAST...EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST BEING
ENHANCED WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTH OVER THE BERING
STRAIT. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT.

NORTH SLOPE...THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE COAST WILL HELP
DEVELOP AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH ONLY LIMITED BREAKS THROUGH
TUESDAY.

INTERIOR...THE HIGH OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD CAP ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO THE LOW 50S WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT THE SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

MODEL GUIDANCE...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT
ECWMF REMAINS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS GFS
REMAINS TOO MOIST FOR THE INTERIOR WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT LATER
IN THE WEEK. ECMF HAS DRIER MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION.

FIRE WEATHER... CONTINUED DRYING FOR THE INTERIOR. MIN RH VALUES
WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

APR 14





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