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000
FXAK69 PAFG 251150
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
350 AM AKDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. THEY
CONTINUE GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IN THE SHORT TERM. STILL QUITE
A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE LOW OVER
SIBERIA AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEY DO STILL AGREE THAT
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE SETTING UP OVER THE WEST COAST EARLY
IN THE WEEK AND SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST THOUGH THE WEEK. TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE BUT THE
SPREAD IN THE MODELS HAS GOTTEN SMALLER.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...A SHORTWAVE MOVING AWAY FROM THE 499 DAM LOW
OVER EASTERN SIBERIA WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO CANADA THIS MORNING.
A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN BERING SEA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OVER THE COAST LATE THIS
MORNING THEN SPLIT AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY WITH
THE NORTHERN HALF HEADING INTO THE ARCTIC AND THE SOUTHERN HALF
MOVING SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. A WEAK RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST OVER THE ALCAN
BORDER BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA SUNDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD UP THE WEST COAST AND
MOVE EAST TO LIE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO OVER BARROW BY EARLY
MONDAY...THEN OVER THE ALCAN BORDER BY LATE MONDAY. LONG WAVE
TROUGH SHIFTS FROM OVER THE DATELINE TO OVER THE CHUKCHI AND
EASTERN BERING SEA MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
WEEK.

ON THE SURFACE...WEATHER FRONT OVER EASTERN INTERIOR CONTINUES
INTO CANADA THIS MORNING. DECAYING WEATHER FRONT OVER THE MIDDLE
YUKON VALLEY WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING OVER THE UPPER
KOYUKUK BASIN...CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE AND KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS. A
WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE OVER THE COAST
LATER THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE NORTH WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
MOVING OVER THE KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS...THEN INTO THE CHUKCHI
SEA. YET ANOTHER...BUT STRONGER WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE
COAST SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY. 987MB LOW OVER
EASTERN SIBERIA WILL MOVE EAST TO THE CHUKCHI SEA THIS AFTERNOON
THEN NORTH. IT WILL BE ABSORBED BY A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW THAT
MOVES FROM THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY EARLY
MONDAY AT 974MB. THE LOW THEN DRIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOWER
YUKON DELTA BY TUESDAY MORNING AT 994MB. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EAST OF THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ARCTIC COAST. MODELS ARE
BRING UP TO 0.25 INCH OF PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST COAST THIS
MORNING...THEN A 0.10 TO 0.50 INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS MAKING IT INTO THE MIDDLE YUKON. THE STRONGEST
FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING UP TO 0.75 INCH OF PRECIPITATION TO
SOME AREAS.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...MAINLY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 20 MPH RANGE
FOR MOST AREAS...WINDS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE BROOKS RANGE
PASSES AND TO 35 MPH OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. WILL ISSUE BLIZZARD WATCH FOR Z206 BROOKS RANGE
PASSES. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH PERIODS OF SNOW OR
FLURRIES AND AREAS OF FOG. HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
OVER THE BROOKS RANGE MAINLY WEST OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY. SOME
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR
TWO.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...BUSY...BUSY...BUSY. THE PARADE
OF FRONTS CONTINUES TODAY AS WE BUILD UP TO TO STORMIER
CONDITIONS. FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE BERING STRAIT THIS MORNING IS
SPREADING SNOW OVER THE COAST AND WILL MOVE INLAND LATER THIS
MORNING. SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES NORTH OF NOME...OVER THE
NULATO HILLS...AND IN THE KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. INLAND NORTH OF ANVIK SNOWFALL WILL BE UP TO
2 INCHES. SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN...OR TURNING TO RAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN AREAS. EVEN BIGGER STORM MOVING TO THE COAST ON SUNDAY
WILL BRING A BUNCH OF ISSUES. SNOW AND RAIN...WIND...HIGH
SURF...JUST TO NAME A FEW. FRONT EXPECTED TO HIT THE COAST MID
MORNING SUNDAY AS THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS TO 968MB JUST NORTHEAST
OF GAMBELL. STRONG GRADIENT OF 18MB BETWEEN GAMBELL AND NOME
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS IN 55 TO 70 MPH RANGE
OVER THE WATER. OFFSHORE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO NEAR 30
FEET OVER THE BERING SEA...WHILE SEAS IN THE BERING STRAIT AND
NORTON SOUND BUILD TO 8 TO 15 FEET. WINDS WILL KICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTH THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH AND BECOME WEST THIS EVENING
BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BEGINNING MONDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES SOUTH. WITH
THE BUILDING SEAS AND STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ISSUE HIGH SURF FOR
THE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLOUDS AND FLURRIES CONTINUE THIS
MORNING BUT WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
SOME LINGERING FLURRIES OVER SOUTHEAST INTERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WEST OF MANLEY HOT SPRINGS CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK...TO THE EAST EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. SOME COLD
AIR ADVECTION INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE SO LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL 5 TO 10 DEGREES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR MOST
AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE ALASKA RANGE AND BROOKS RANGE AS THE LOW OUT
WEST WINDS UP PRETTY TIGHT. WILL ISSUE HIGH WINDS WATCHES FOR Z225
AND Z226 BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL AS
A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR Z218 MAINLY FOR BLOWING SNOW AND WINDS.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ206-AKZ218.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

&&

$$

SDB OCT 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 251150
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
350 AM AKDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. THEY
CONTINUE GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IN THE SHORT TERM. STILL QUITE
A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE LOW OVER
SIBERIA AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEY DO STILL AGREE THAT
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE SETTING UP OVER THE WEST COAST EARLY
IN THE WEEK AND SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST THOUGH THE WEEK. TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE BUT THE
SPREAD IN THE MODELS HAS GOTTEN SMALLER.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...A SHORTWAVE MOVING AWAY FROM THE 499 DAM LOW
OVER EASTERN SIBERIA WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO CANADA THIS MORNING.
A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN BERING SEA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OVER THE COAST LATE THIS
MORNING THEN SPLIT AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY WITH
THE NORTHERN HALF HEADING INTO THE ARCTIC AND THE SOUTHERN HALF
MOVING SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. A WEAK RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST OVER THE ALCAN
BORDER BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA SUNDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD UP THE WEST COAST AND
MOVE EAST TO LIE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO OVER BARROW BY EARLY
MONDAY...THEN OVER THE ALCAN BORDER BY LATE MONDAY. LONG WAVE
TROUGH SHIFTS FROM OVER THE DATELINE TO OVER THE CHUKCHI AND
EASTERN BERING SEA MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
WEEK.

ON THE SURFACE...WEATHER FRONT OVER EASTERN INTERIOR CONTINUES
INTO CANADA THIS MORNING. DECAYING WEATHER FRONT OVER THE MIDDLE
YUKON VALLEY WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING OVER THE UPPER
KOYUKUK BASIN...CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE AND KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS. A
WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE OVER THE COAST
LATER THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE NORTH WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
MOVING OVER THE KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS...THEN INTO THE CHUKCHI
SEA. YET ANOTHER...BUT STRONGER WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE
COAST SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY. 987MB LOW OVER
EASTERN SIBERIA WILL MOVE EAST TO THE CHUKCHI SEA THIS AFTERNOON
THEN NORTH. IT WILL BE ABSORBED BY A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW THAT
MOVES FROM THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY EARLY
MONDAY AT 974MB. THE LOW THEN DRIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOWER
YUKON DELTA BY TUESDAY MORNING AT 994MB. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EAST OF THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ARCTIC COAST. MODELS ARE
BRING UP TO 0.25 INCH OF PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST COAST THIS
MORNING...THEN A 0.10 TO 0.50 INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS MAKING IT INTO THE MIDDLE YUKON. THE STRONGEST
FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING UP TO 0.75 INCH OF PRECIPITATION TO
SOME AREAS.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...MAINLY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 20 MPH RANGE
FOR MOST AREAS...WINDS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE BROOKS RANGE
PASSES AND TO 35 MPH OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. WILL ISSUE BLIZZARD WATCH FOR Z206 BROOKS RANGE
PASSES. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH PERIODS OF SNOW OR
FLURRIES AND AREAS OF FOG. HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
OVER THE BROOKS RANGE MAINLY WEST OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY. SOME
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR
TWO.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...BUSY...BUSY...BUSY. THE PARADE
OF FRONTS CONTINUES TODAY AS WE BUILD UP TO TO STORMIER
CONDITIONS. FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE BERING STRAIT THIS MORNING IS
SPREADING SNOW OVER THE COAST AND WILL MOVE INLAND LATER THIS
MORNING. SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES NORTH OF NOME...OVER THE
NULATO HILLS...AND IN THE KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. INLAND NORTH OF ANVIK SNOWFALL WILL BE UP TO
2 INCHES. SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN...OR TURNING TO RAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN AREAS. EVEN BIGGER STORM MOVING TO THE COAST ON SUNDAY
WILL BRING A BUNCH OF ISSUES. SNOW AND RAIN...WIND...HIGH
SURF...JUST TO NAME A FEW. FRONT EXPECTED TO HIT THE COAST MID
MORNING SUNDAY AS THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS TO 968MB JUST NORTHEAST
OF GAMBELL. STRONG GRADIENT OF 18MB BETWEEN GAMBELL AND NOME
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS IN 55 TO 70 MPH RANGE
OVER THE WATER. OFFSHORE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO NEAR 30
FEET OVER THE BERING SEA...WHILE SEAS IN THE BERING STRAIT AND
NORTON SOUND BUILD TO 8 TO 15 FEET. WINDS WILL KICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTH THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH AND BECOME WEST THIS EVENING
BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BEGINNING MONDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES SOUTH. WITH
THE BUILDING SEAS AND STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ISSUE HIGH SURF FOR
THE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLOUDS AND FLURRIES CONTINUE THIS
MORNING BUT WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
SOME LINGERING FLURRIES OVER SOUTHEAST INTERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WEST OF MANLEY HOT SPRINGS CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK...TO THE EAST EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. SOME COLD
AIR ADVECTION INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE SO LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL 5 TO 10 DEGREES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR MOST
AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE ALASKA RANGE AND BROOKS RANGE AS THE LOW OUT
WEST WINDS UP PRETTY TIGHT. WILL ISSUE HIGH WINDS WATCHES FOR Z225
AND Z226 BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL AS
A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR Z218 MAINLY FOR BLOWING SNOW AND WINDS.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ206-AKZ218.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

&&

$$

SDB OCT 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 242056
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1256 PM AKDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL IN THE SHORT RANGE...HOWEVER
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN BOTH STRENGTH AND POSITION ARE APPARENT IN
THE MID RANGE AND THE MODELS BECOME COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE IN
THE LONG RUN. FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST LEANED ON A HEAVY BLEND
OF GFS AND NAM12 AND CONTINUITY. THE 12Z ECMWF DOES LOOK CONSIDERABLY
LIKE THE 12Z GFS AND NAM12 ON LOW POSITION AND STRENGTH IN THE
BERING SEA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUN. STILL
LOTS OF SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND FROM RUN TO RUN PAST 36 TO 48
HOURS...LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST PAST 48 HOURS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 498 DAM LOW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND
EASTERN SIBERIA AND SPIN OFF SHORTWAVES TO THE EAST INTO THE
BERING SEA AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR. FIRST SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY ALONG A PAWI TO PAFM TO PAGA TO PAMC LINE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DROP LESS THAN 1 INCH AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG A
PAPO TO PAOT TO PAUN LINE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR
TONIGHT. EXPECT ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH THIS
TROUGH. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN BERING
SEA AND MOVES JUST WEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND MONDAY MORNING. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES AROUND THE BERING STRAIT AS IT WEAKENS
THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

ON THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONT OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR CONTINUES
TO PUSH TO THE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR SATURDAY MORNING. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST
COAST WILL DIMINISH AS IT MOVES INLAND TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES.

A 995 MB LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE BERING STRAIT SATURDAY MORNING AND
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO WESTERN ALASKA. EXPECT 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW WITH AROUND 4 INCHES EXPECTED IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SEWARD PENINSULA...NULATO HILLS AND WESTERN BROOKS RANGE.
BLOWING SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD REDUCTION TO
VISIBILITY...IN ADDITION RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW SOUTH OF THE
SEWARD PENINSULA WINDS LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW.

ALL EYES ON NEXT WEATHER MAKER IN THE BERING SEA AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A 970 MB LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL BE LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHWEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND SUNDAY
EVENING. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CREATE HIGH
SURF ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING COASTS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
BERING STRAIT COAST WHERE SURGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AROUND A 4
FOOT SURGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS
EXPECTED SEWARD PENINSULA AND NORTH WITH A SNOW AND RAIN MIX ALONG
EASTERN NORTON SOUND AND THE LOWER YK DELTA. STRONG WINDS WILL
BUFFET THE ENTIRE COAST.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ235.
&&

$$

CCC OCT 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 241141
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
341 AM AKDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM...BUT MODELS
SHOWING QUITE LARGE DIFFERENCES BEYOND 36 HOURS. THE ONE THING
THEY HAVE IN COMMON IS THAT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
WITH NO SHORTAGE OF SHORTWAVES. NUDGING TO THE CURRENT GRIDS WITH
A BLEND OF THE LATEST MODELS AGAIN TODAY...BUT WILL LEAN A LITTLE
HEAVIER ON THE ECMWF BEYOND 36 HOURS SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING A
MUCH BETTER JOB OF LATE IN THE MID RANGE.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...A 536 DAM LOW WEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE
ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST INTO CANADA. A WEAK
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ITS MARCH EAST INTO THE YUKON THIS MORNING.
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE AROUND A 497 DAM LOW OVER EASTERN
SIBERIA...THE FIRST WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDDLE
YUKON VALLEY THIS MORNING...TO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE TO THE COAST THIS MORNING THEN
CONTINUE EAST...THE THIRD WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST ON
SATURDAY MORNING...AND A FORTH WILL GET TO THE COAST SUNDAY AS THE
LOW AND LONG WAVE TROUGH REORIENT OVER THE WEST COAST WITH RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. AT 850 HPA...NOT MUCH
CHANGE UNDER THE ZONAL FLOW UNTIL THE RIDGE STARTS BUILDING OVER
THE EASTERN INTERIOR ON SUNDAY...THEN SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.

ON THE SURFACE...THE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN NEAR 80N FOR OVER A WEEK
HAS FINALLY MOVED WEST...BUT WEAK RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE ARCTIC
OCEAN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A DISSIPATING OCCLUSION WILL MOVE
FROM THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY EAST TO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY
SATURDAY MORNING. A SECOND FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY THIS EVENING...THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE
UPPER KOYUKUK BASIN AND CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE SATURDAY EVENING. A
THIRD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT TONIGHT AND
MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST SATURDAY MORNING...MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY LATE SATURDAY AND DISSIPATING OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING. THE MOST POTENT OF THE FRONTS
WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE TO THE
MIDDLE YUKON SUNDAY EVENING. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS LAST FRONT WEST OF TANANA.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 20 MPH RANGE. STILL EXPECT SOME
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AND AREAS OF FOG. WEST OF
BARROW AND IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE EXPECT PERIODS OF SNOW WITH
ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND OF 2 TO 8 INCHES. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WILL BE A MESS AS THE SERIES OF
FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT BUT MODELS
SEEM TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THEM...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT
TERM. WEATHER FRONT YESTERDAY DROPPED UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA. EXPECT MUCH OF
THE SAME OVER THE WEEKEND WITH EACH FRONT BRINGING UP TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW TO MOST AREAS. THE FRONT SATURDAY MORNING COULD DUMP
AROUND 5 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA
MOUNTAINS AND IN THE NOATAK AND KOBUK VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE
SOUTH SLOPES OF THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. ON SUNDAY IT LOOKS LIKE
A REPLAY OF SATURDAY. WEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST TODAY BECOME
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTHWEST SATURDAY. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE INCREASING TO 15 TO
25 MPH AS EACH FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WILL TOP OUT AT 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTING TO 45 MPH.
MODELS STILL SHOWING A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 211-214.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLOUDS AND FLURRIES UNDER THE DIRTY
RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST AS THE DISSIPATING FRONT IS DRIVEN EAST
BY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. SNOW MOVING IN WITH THE FRONT AND
EXPECT UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN
MAINLY TO THE WEST OF MANLEY HOT SPRINGS. LOOKING LIKE WINDS WILL
BE LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED
IN THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...LOOKING LIKE GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 5
FOOT STORM SURGE...BUT MODELS AT THIS RANGE CONTINUE TO
DISAGREE...SO IT WILL BE SOMETHING WE HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ235.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245-PKZ500.

&&

$$

SDB OCT 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 232150
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
150 PM AKDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUE WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS IN THE MID
TERM AS WELL AS THE LONG TERM. NUDGED CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST
WITH AN EVEN BLEND OF NAM12...GFS AND ECMWF AND 50 PERCENT CONTINUITY.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...A 500 DAM LOW OVER EASTERN SIBERIA CONTINUES
TO EDGE TO THE EAST AND FLATTEN A NOW WEAK RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR. THE WEAK RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
EAST FRIDAY INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR AS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR. THE SHARP
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR FRIDAY EVENING
AND INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SHARP
SHORTWAVE SPINS OFF OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SIBERIA AND WILL
MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST SATURDAY.

ON THE SURFACE A 984 MB LOW REMAINS OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AS A
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
BERING STRAIT AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE ON
SHORE OVER THE WEST COAST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY OVER THE
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND SATURDAY OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE WEST
COAST AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR. LOCALLY UP TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE NULATO HILLS. SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE YK DELTA. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER
TO LESS THAN AN INCH AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST SATURDAY
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW MIXING AT TIMES WITH RAIN IN THE YK
DELTA.

SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST TO WEST SMALL CRAFT WITH OCCASIONAL GALE
LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAY IN THE BERING SEA WILL
GENERATE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ON SOUTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT. LATEST TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CREATE MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS IN KOTZEBUE
SOUND SO THE THREAT FOR HIGH SURF HAS DIMINISHED.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 211...212...213
AND 214. PERSISTENT SOUTH TO WEST WINDS IN THE 25 MPH TO 35 MPH
RANGE WILL CREATE STORM SURGE VALUES IN THE 1 TO 2 FOOT RANGE AS 6
TO 8 FOOT WAVES BREAK NEAR SHORE. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL BE
HIGHEST IN NORTON BAY WHERE UP TO A 3 FOOT SURGE IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CCC OCT 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 232150
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
150 PM AKDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUE WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS IN THE MID
TERM AS WELL AS THE LONG TERM. NUDGED CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST
WITH AN EVEN BLEND OF NAM12...GFS AND ECMWF AND 50 PERCENT CONTINUITY.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...A 500 DAM LOW OVER EASTERN SIBERIA CONTINUES
TO EDGE TO THE EAST AND FLATTEN A NOW WEAK RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR. THE WEAK RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
EAST FRIDAY INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR AS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR. THE SHARP
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR FRIDAY EVENING
AND INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SHARP
SHORTWAVE SPINS OFF OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SIBERIA AND WILL
MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST SATURDAY.

ON THE SURFACE A 984 MB LOW REMAINS OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AS A
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
BERING STRAIT AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE ON
SHORE OVER THE WEST COAST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY OVER THE
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND SATURDAY OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE WEST
COAST AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR. LOCALLY UP TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE NULATO HILLS. SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE YK DELTA. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER
TO LESS THAN AN INCH AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST SATURDAY
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW MIXING AT TIMES WITH RAIN IN THE YK
DELTA.

SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST TO WEST SMALL CRAFT WITH OCCASIONAL GALE
LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAY IN THE BERING SEA WILL
GENERATE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ON SOUTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT. LATEST TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CREATE MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS IN KOTZEBUE
SOUND SO THE THREAT FOR HIGH SURF HAS DIMINISHED.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 211...212...213
AND 214. PERSISTENT SOUTH TO WEST WINDS IN THE 25 MPH TO 35 MPH
RANGE WILL CREATE STORM SURGE VALUES IN THE 1 TO 2 FOOT RANGE AS 6
TO 8 FOOT WAVES BREAK NEAR SHORE. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL BE
HIGHEST IN NORTON BAY WHERE UP TO A 3 FOOT SURGE IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CCC OCT 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 231033
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
233 AM AKDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL. CONTINUE WITH VERY GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY FOR THE SHORT TERM...BUT BEYOND SATURDAY IS ANYONES
GUESS AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS A FEW
DAYS AGO WHEN THEY WERE 180 OUT FROM EACH OTHER. WILL NUDGE TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST MODELS FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...A PAIR OF 525 DAM LOWS ARE MERGING OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING...AND WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN INTERIOR WILL MOVE EAST AS A WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST THIS MORNING MOVES TO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THIS
EVENING...THEN OVER THE ALCAN BORDER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
INTO THE YUKON TERRITORIES. A TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH
FROM A 499 DAM LOW OVER EASTERN SIBERIA THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND TO THE ALCAN
BORDER BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN INTO THE YUKON TERRITORIES. A
524 DAM LOW OVER BARROW WILL MOVE NORTH AND BE ABSORBED BY THE
EXPANDING LOW OVER SIBERIA. AT 850 HPA...WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS ACROSS THE AREA.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1038MB HIGH NEAR 80N 170W WILL MOVE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE WILL FINALLY
MOVE SOUTH OUT OF THE AREAS AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES TO THE INTERIOR
FROM THE WEST COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A 1002MB LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATING. A WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING
FROM A 971MB LOW OVER EASTERN SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND THIS MORNING...THEN OVER THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW STORM SURGES OF LESS THAN
2 FEET ON THE COAST WITH THE FIRST WAVE. A SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE
TO THE WEST COAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH SIMILAR FORECAST SURGE.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A FETCH THE LENGTH OF THE BERING SEA WHICH
PERSISTS FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS BEFORE IS STARTS BREAKING DOWN. THIS
COULD GENERATE WINDS WAVES OF 13 TO 20 FEET OFFSHORE.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WINDS DOWN FROM THE LAST FEW
DAYS...BUT WINDS 10 TO 25 MPH PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREAS EVEN AS
THEY SWINGS AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS AND OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
HELP CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT. EXPECT CEILINGS TO COME UP A BIT
TODAY AND MAYBE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT. FLURRIES AND SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE COAST...BUT
OVERALL CONDITIONS IMPROVED.TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND THEN DRIFTS JUST OFFSHORE SATURDAY. STILL NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...FRONT WILL MOVE OVER ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND THIS MORNING AND TO THE WEST COAST BY AROUND NOON
TODAY. PRECIPITATION STARTS AS SNOW THIS MORNING THEN CHANGES TO
RAIN ON THE ISLAND BY AFTERNOON. ONCE IT MAKES IT TO THE COAST
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SNOW NORTH OF NORTON SOUND...BUT WILL
MIX WITH RAIN TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INLAND
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.25
TO 0.50 WILL OCCUR NEAR THE COAST WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS INLAND.
SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE
INTERIOR SEWARD PENINSULA AND THE NULATO HILLS. COASTAL AREAS
WILL SEE UP TO 2 FOOT OF STORM SURGE AS THE SYSTEM COMES ASHORE.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WAVES
NEAR SHORE BUILDING TO 4 TO 8 FEET. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES. A SECOND WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE COAST ON
FRIDAY MORNING SPREADING MORE RAIN AND SNOW UP THE COAST...BUT
NOT MUCH TO THE INLAND AREAS EAST OF THE NULATO HILLS...AND A
THIRD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SUNDAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT EXPECTING
A LOT OF SNOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BUT MANY AREAS WILL GET
1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES STEADY
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SOME SLIGHT COOLING AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS EXTENDED PERSISTENT FETCH OVER
THE BERING SEA WILL PRODUCE NEAR SHORE WAVES OF 4 TO 8 FEET.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ235-PKZ500.

&&

$$

SDB OCT 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 230015
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
415 PM AKDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL IN THE SHORT
TERM BUT EXHIBIT MODERATE SPREAD IN THE MID TERM. MODEL SUITES
CONTINUE TO DISPLAY CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN SPREAD AND MODEL TO
MODEL SPREAD NEXT WEEK. CONSENSUS IF ONE CAN BE FORGED OUT OF THE
WIDELY VARYING MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR A LARGE STORM TO MOVE INTO
THE BERING SEA NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS AND COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE WEST COAST...TOO EARLY AT THIS POINT TO PIN
DOWN DETAILS...CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA AT 522 DAM LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF ALASKA AND A RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. A
498 DAM LOW SITS OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW
MOVES EAST INTO THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA THURSDAY MORNING AND
WEAKENS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND
MOVES IT SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THRU NIGHT. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHES ONTO THE WEST COAST THURSDAY AND INTO HE
WESTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY. THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND EXITS INTO CANADA SATURDAY.

ON THE SURFACE A 1038 MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 80 NORTH AND
175 WEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS A 984 MB LOW OVER EASTERN
SIBERIA MOVES EAST AND NORTH INTO THE WESTERN CHUKOTSK PENINSULA
AS A 978 MB LOW AND DISPLACES THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. AS
THE HIGH MOVES NORTH THE STRONG GRADIENT THAT HAS BEEN PARKED ON
ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE AND PROVIDING STRONG WIND HEADLINES IN THE
COASTAL ZONES WILL MOVE OFF SHORE TONIGHT AND IN THE WESTERN
NORTH SLOPE AND TOMORROW ON THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE.

SMALL CRAFT TO GALE FORCE SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONT
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL PROVIDE A LONG DURATION
BUT FAVORABLE FETCH TO SOUTH AND WEST FACING COAST LINES NORTH OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND. HOISTED HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR ZONES
207...209...211...212...213 AND 214. NOT EXPECTING COASTAL
FLOODING AS WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE VARIABLE ENOUGH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO LIMIT COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL...HOWEVER 6 TO 8 FOOT
WAVES WILL BREAK NEAR SHORE WITH 1 TO 2 FOOT STORM SURGE EXPECTED
IN MOST AREAS AND 2 TO 3 FOOT STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN EASTERN
NORTON SOUND.

LIGHT SNOW...MIXING AT TIMES WITH RAIN IN THE YK DELTA WILL MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL DROP 1 TO 2 INCHES ON THE WEST
COAST THURSDAY AND LESSER AMOUNTS INLAND AS THE FRONT PUSHES
EAST. EXPECT AROUND AN INCH IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.



COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HOISTED FOR ZONES 207...209...211...212...213
AND 214 AS PROLONGED SOUTHWEST WIND EVENT WITH WINDS IN THE 25 TO
35 MPH HOUR RANGE WILL BUFFET SOUTH AND WEST FACING COAST LINES.
6 TO 8 FOOT WAVES WILL BREAK NEAR SHORE AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE A 1 TO 2 FOOT STORM SURGE. EASTERN NORTON SOUND WILL
RECEIVE A 2 TO 3 FOOT SURGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE BERING SEA STORM NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

$$

CCC OCT 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 230015
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
415 PM AKDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL IN THE SHORT
TERM BUT EXHIBIT MODERATE SPREAD IN THE MID TERM. MODEL SUITES
CONTINUE TO DISPLAY CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN SPREAD AND MODEL TO
MODEL SPREAD NEXT WEEK. CONSENSUS IF ONE CAN BE FORGED OUT OF THE
WIDELY VARYING MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR A LARGE STORM TO MOVE INTO
THE BERING SEA NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS AND COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE WEST COAST...TOO EARLY AT THIS POINT TO PIN
DOWN DETAILS...CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA AT 522 DAM LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF ALASKA AND A RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. A
498 DAM LOW SITS OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW
MOVES EAST INTO THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA THURSDAY MORNING AND
WEAKENS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND
MOVES IT SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THRU NIGHT. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHES ONTO THE WEST COAST THURSDAY AND INTO HE
WESTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY. THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND EXITS INTO CANADA SATURDAY.

ON THE SURFACE A 1038 MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 80 NORTH AND
175 WEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS A 984 MB LOW OVER EASTERN
SIBERIA MOVES EAST AND NORTH INTO THE WESTERN CHUKOTSK PENINSULA
AS A 978 MB LOW AND DISPLACES THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. AS
THE HIGH MOVES NORTH THE STRONG GRADIENT THAT HAS BEEN PARKED ON
ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE AND PROVIDING STRONG WIND HEADLINES IN THE
COASTAL ZONES WILL MOVE OFF SHORE TONIGHT AND IN THE WESTERN
NORTH SLOPE AND TOMORROW ON THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE.

SMALL CRAFT TO GALE FORCE SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONT
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL PROVIDE A LONG DURATION
BUT FAVORABLE FETCH TO SOUTH AND WEST FACING COAST LINES NORTH OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND. HOISTED HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR ZONES
207...209...211...212...213 AND 214. NOT EXPECTING COASTAL
FLOODING AS WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE VARIABLE ENOUGH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO LIMIT COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL...HOWEVER 6 TO 8 FOOT
WAVES WILL BREAK NEAR SHORE WITH 1 TO 2 FOOT STORM SURGE EXPECTED
IN MOST AREAS AND 2 TO 3 FOOT STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN EASTERN
NORTON SOUND.

LIGHT SNOW...MIXING AT TIMES WITH RAIN IN THE YK DELTA WILL MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL DROP 1 TO 2 INCHES ON THE WEST
COAST THURSDAY AND LESSER AMOUNTS INLAND AS THE FRONT PUSHES
EAST. EXPECT AROUND AN INCH IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.



COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HOISTED FOR ZONES 207...209...211...212...213
AND 214 AS PROLONGED SOUTHWEST WIND EVENT WITH WINDS IN THE 25 TO
35 MPH HOUR RANGE WILL BUFFET SOUTH AND WEST FACING COAST LINES.
6 TO 8 FOOT WAVES WILL BREAK NEAR SHORE AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE A 1 TO 2 FOOT STORM SURGE. EASTERN NORTON SOUND WILL
RECEIVE A 2 TO 3 FOOT SURGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE BERING SEA STORM NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

$$

CCC OCT 14





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