Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXAK69 PAFG 300002
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
402 PM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ALOFT AT 500M MB...UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN BROOKS
RANGE THIS MORNING HAS SLOWLY SHIFTED EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AK AND
CANADA BORDER. THIS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY SATURDAY MORNING OVER CANADA NEAR THE
MCKENZIE BAY. THIS WILL LEAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN COAST AND INTERIOR WITH LITTLE CHANGE AS ANOTHER CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE ARCTIC ON SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ALASKA AND CANADA BORDER
AND INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR OF ALASKA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO SLIDE DOWN
INTO THE CENTRAL AND ALASKA INTERIOR STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES APPEARING ON TUESDAY
MORNING.

SURFACE...THE 1030 MB HIGH OVER BARROW EARLY TODAY HAS MOVED
ONSHORE NEAR DEADHORSE WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO A 1034
MB HIGH NEAR OVER THE ARCTIC. THIS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC
WILL PERSISTS AND STRENGTHEN TO 1040 MB BY SUNDAY MORNING. A
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR.
THIS WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIRMASS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL MOVE EXPAND
TOWARDS THE WEST COAST AND BERING STRAIT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...A BIT OF A MESS UP ON THE NORTH
SLOPE WITH A NICE SNOW BAND DEVELOPING OVER POINT THOMPSON WITH
REPORTS OF 3 INCHES ACCUMULATED SNOW. INITIALLY THERE WAS
FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING THAT HAD MOVED EAST PAST DEADHORSE AND
DALTON. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME LOCATIONS OF SNOW OR MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW ALONG PORTIONS OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL ALL TURN TO SNOW AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD
OUT OF THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC COAST
WILL ONLY GET COOLER AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AS THE NEXT FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ON SATURDAY EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY EAST OF BARROW. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OVER THE ARCTIC
COAST.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...POTENTIALLY DEVELOP SOME AREAS
OF FOG IN AREAS OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG COASTAL
AREAS OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND YUKON DELTA WILL SHIFT WEST AND
BE ISOLATED BY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DECAY BY SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND OFFSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SLIGHT
WARMING WITH RIDGE OVER THE AREA ALONG THE COAST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR FOR THE WEEKEND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS
THE LOW OVER THE BROOKS RANGE MOVES EAST. BRIEF WARMING FOR THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT COOLING EVENT ON MONDAY THAT COULD
PUSH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DOWN NEAR
FREEZING FROM THE TANANA RIVER NORTH. LOOKING FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS ON SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR WITH A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS SUNDAY EVENING AND
OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY EARLY MONDAY. COULD SEE SNOW LEVELS
AROUND 2000 FEET FOR FORTYMILE COUNTRY.

EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES BRINGS IN MUCH
COLDER AIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTERIOR ALASKA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECASTED BY BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE MID NEXT WEEK. IT
WILL STALL TO THE NORTH AND SLIDE INTO WESTERN INTERIOR WHILE
THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS BACK INTO INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR. BASICALLY KEEPING THE COOLER AND WET TREND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT METEOROLOGICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL
EXPECTED SOUTH OF CHICKEN AND EAST OF MENTASTA PASS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING IN ZONES 224 AND 226.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER WELL OVERNIGHT. RH VALUES WILL THEN
BE A BIT DRIER SAT AND SUN FOR MUCH OF THE AK INTERIOR COMPARED TO
TODAY GIVEN DECENT INSOLATION...SUFFICIENT MIXING...AND THE ABSENCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...SOME PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WHERE A TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASE CHANCES
OF RAIN OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
INTERIOR. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE RH VALUES BETWEEN TWENTY AND THIRTY
PERCENT IN AREAS DURING THE DAY HOWEVER...WINDS WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

BESIDES THE AFOREMENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE LOWER
YUKON VALLEY AND INLAND OF THE YUKON DELTA. WARRANTS MONITORING AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SAG RIVER WAS REPLACED WITH A
FLOOD ADVISORY FROM PUMP STATION 3 DOWNSTREAM TOWARDS DEADHORSE
WITH POTENTIAL MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE DALTON HIGHWAY. THE FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR THE SAG RIVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CREST
CURRENTLY IS AT 19.5 FEET AND IS APPROACHING THE FLOOD STAGE AT
20 FEET. IT IS EXPECTED TO CREST TONIGHT AT PUMP STATION 3 ON THE
SAG RIVER AND IT WILL TAKE AROUND 24 HOURS FOR THE CREST TO MOVE
DOWNSTREAM. THIS MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IMPACTS TO CURRENT
REPAIRS ALONG THE DALTON HIGHWAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225.
&&

$$

MAK/ET MAY 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 300002
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
402 PM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ALOFT AT 500M MB...UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN BROOKS
RANGE THIS MORNING HAS SLOWLY SHIFTED EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AK AND
CANADA BORDER. THIS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY SATURDAY MORNING OVER CANADA NEAR THE
MCKENZIE BAY. THIS WILL LEAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN COAST AND INTERIOR WITH LITTLE CHANGE AS ANOTHER CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE ARCTIC ON SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ALASKA AND CANADA BORDER
AND INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR OF ALASKA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO SLIDE DOWN
INTO THE CENTRAL AND ALASKA INTERIOR STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES APPEARING ON TUESDAY
MORNING.

SURFACE...THE 1030 MB HIGH OVER BARROW EARLY TODAY HAS MOVED
ONSHORE NEAR DEADHORSE WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO A 1034
MB HIGH NEAR OVER THE ARCTIC. THIS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC
WILL PERSISTS AND STRENGTHEN TO 1040 MB BY SUNDAY MORNING. A
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR.
THIS WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIRMASS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL MOVE EXPAND
TOWARDS THE WEST COAST AND BERING STRAIT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...A BIT OF A MESS UP ON THE NORTH
SLOPE WITH A NICE SNOW BAND DEVELOPING OVER POINT THOMPSON WITH
REPORTS OF 3 INCHES ACCUMULATED SNOW. INITIALLY THERE WAS
FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING THAT HAD MOVED EAST PAST DEADHORSE AND
DALTON. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME LOCATIONS OF SNOW OR MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW ALONG PORTIONS OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL ALL TURN TO SNOW AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD
OUT OF THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC COAST
WILL ONLY GET COOLER AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AS THE NEXT FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ON SATURDAY EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY EAST OF BARROW. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OVER THE ARCTIC
COAST.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...POTENTIALLY DEVELOP SOME AREAS
OF FOG IN AREAS OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG COASTAL
AREAS OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND YUKON DELTA WILL SHIFT WEST AND
BE ISOLATED BY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DECAY BY SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND OFFSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SLIGHT
WARMING WITH RIDGE OVER THE AREA ALONG THE COAST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR FOR THE WEEKEND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS
THE LOW OVER THE BROOKS RANGE MOVES EAST. BRIEF WARMING FOR THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT COOLING EVENT ON MONDAY THAT COULD
PUSH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DOWN NEAR
FREEZING FROM THE TANANA RIVER NORTH. LOOKING FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS ON SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR WITH A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS SUNDAY EVENING AND
OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY EARLY MONDAY. COULD SEE SNOW LEVELS
AROUND 2000 FEET FOR FORTYMILE COUNTRY.

EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES BRINGS IN MUCH
COLDER AIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTERIOR ALASKA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECASTED BY BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE MID NEXT WEEK. IT
WILL STALL TO THE NORTH AND SLIDE INTO WESTERN INTERIOR WHILE
THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS BACK INTO INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR. BASICALLY KEEPING THE COOLER AND WET TREND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT METEOROLOGICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL
EXPECTED SOUTH OF CHICKEN AND EAST OF MENTASTA PASS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING IN ZONES 224 AND 226.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER WELL OVERNIGHT. RH VALUES WILL THEN
BE A BIT DRIER SAT AND SUN FOR MUCH OF THE AK INTERIOR COMPARED TO
TODAY GIVEN DECENT INSOLATION...SUFFICIENT MIXING...AND THE ABSENCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...SOME PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WHERE A TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASE CHANCES
OF RAIN OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
INTERIOR. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE RH VALUES BETWEEN TWENTY AND THIRTY
PERCENT IN AREAS DURING THE DAY HOWEVER...WINDS WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

BESIDES THE AFOREMENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE LOWER
YUKON VALLEY AND INLAND OF THE YUKON DELTA. WARRANTS MONITORING AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SAG RIVER WAS REPLACED WITH A
FLOOD ADVISORY FROM PUMP STATION 3 DOWNSTREAM TOWARDS DEADHORSE
WITH POTENTIAL MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE DALTON HIGHWAY. THE FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR THE SAG RIVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CREST
CURRENTLY IS AT 19.5 FEET AND IS APPROACHING THE FLOOD STAGE AT
20 FEET. IT IS EXPECTED TO CREST TONIGHT AT PUMP STATION 3 ON THE
SAG RIVER AND IT WILL TAKE AROUND 24 HOURS FOR THE CREST TO MOVE
DOWNSTREAM. THIS MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IMPACTS TO CURRENT
REPAIRS ALONG THE DALTON HIGHWAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225.
&&

$$

MAK/ET MAY 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 291130
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
330 AM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...CONTINUE GOOD SHORT TERM AGREEMENT. INITIALIZED WELL
AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. MID RANGE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HIGH
CANADIAN ARCTIC THAT DROPS SOUTH SATURDAY TO BE OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTERIOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH TO
THE ALASKA RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING. NAM CONTINUES TO WORK WELL FOR
THE FIRST 24 HOURS SO WILL BLEND THE FIRST 24 HOURS TO IT
TODAY...THEN USE A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
MID RANGE SHOWING MORE AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS SO WILL USE A
BLEND FOR THOSE PERIODS...THE EXTENDED PERIODS BEYOND TUESDAY
STILL A MESS SO WPC GUIDANCE MAY BE THE WAY TO GO.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 559 DAM LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE UPPER
YUKON FLATS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORY AS THE LOW DISSIPATES. A SHARP 573 DAM RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BUILD NORTH AND SLIDE EAST OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
SOUTHCENTRAL AREA TODAY AND WILL BE COME STATIONARY. A 519 DAM
LOW IN THE WEST CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MORE NORTHWEST OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOMES STATIONARY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH
CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL MOVE SOUTH TO LIE FROM THE CANADIAN
ARCHIPELAGO TO BARROW BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN FROM
NORTHERN BANKS ISLAND TO DEADHORSE TO POINT LAY BY NOON
SATURDAY...THEN FROM SOUTHERN BANKS ISLAND TO OVER THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING AS IT WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTH POLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE SOUTH TO 80N 140W SATURDAY MORNING WITH A 536 DAM
CENTER CONTINUING SOUTH TO OVER DEADHORSE SUNDAY MORNING AS IT
WEAKENS TO 542 DAM...AND TO OVER FAIRBANKS EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AT 545 DAM. AT 850 HPA...BIG CHANGES ON THE HORIZON AS THE
WEEKEND PROGRESSES. EXPECT SOME COOLING TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE YUKON FLATS MOVES EAST AND PULLS SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE INTERIOR. THEN A WARM UP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE A
PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
CELSIUS ABOVE THIS WEEKEND...BUT MONDAY THEY WILL TAKE A DIVE
SOUTH OF ZERO CELSIUS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF MAINLAND ALASKA
FOR A COUPLE DAYS.

SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN TODAY AND PULL BACK INTO CANADA AS IT LOSES THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
WEST COAST TODAY. THE RIDGE WEAKENS ON SATURDAY AS THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDS WEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. RIDGING OVER THE
ARCTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND BUILD SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC WILL PULL BACK TO THE SOUTH AS THE TROUGH BUILDS WEST
OVER THE COAST. A 982 MB LOW IN THE WEST CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL
MOVE NORTHWEST AS IT WEAKENS TO 998 MB SATURDAY MORNING AND IS
ABSORBED INTO A LOW IN THE SEA OF OKHOTSK EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DRIFT WEST OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...PATCHY DENSE FOG AGAIN TODAY WITH
THE STRATUS CEILINGS HANGING IN AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. HEAVY
RAINS OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING BUT SOME
HEAVY RAIN CAN STILL BE EXPECTED FROM THE DALTON HIGHWAY EAST THIS
AS THE LOW OVER THE YUKON FLATS MOVES EAST. ALMOST 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS BEEN RECORDED AT IVOTUK OVERNIGHT. IT WILL TAKE A DAY OR
SO FOR THE RAIN TO MAKE IT INTO THE RIVERS...BUT ONCE IT DOES
EXPECT RIVERS TO RISE TO BANKFULL IS SOME AREAS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL ONLY GET COOLER AS
THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES SOUTH ON SATURDAY
EXPECT THE RAIN SHOWERS TO TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY EAST OF BARROW. NO
SIGNIFICANT WINDS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT
MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH OUT WITH
ONLY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH
OF THE BERING STRAIT AND WEST OF THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY. THE
SHOWERS WILL BECOME ISOLATED SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
DECAY OVER THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND OFFSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SOME WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION UP THE COAST WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE
INTERIOR AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WITH SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN WARMING UP FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
SIGNIFICANT COOLING EVENT ON MONDAY THAT COULD PUSH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DOWN NEAR FREEZING FROM THE
TANANA RIVER NORTH. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR WILL A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS SUNDAY EVENING
AND OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...IT WILL BE DRY AND COOLER TODAY SO NO RED FLAG
ISSUES TODAY. AS WE CONTINUE TO DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IT LOOKS
LIKE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL MAKE IT INTO THE 20 PERCENT
RANGE...BUT NO WINDS OF SIGNIFICANCE. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TODAY
WILL BE VERY MINIMAL IF ANY AT ALL AND BE CONFINED TO EAST OF
CHALKYITSIK IN ZONE 220 AND HELMUT MOUNTAIN IN ZONE 218. ALSO
SOUTH OF CHICKEN IN ZONE 224 AND EAST OF TOK IN ZONE 226. THE
RAINS...EVEN THOUGH THEY WERE SPOTTY WILL HELP WITH GREENUP AND BY
NEXT WEEK THAT SHOULD BE REFLECTED IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AT IVOTUK ON THE ARCTIC
PLAIN WILL TAKE A DAY OR TWO TO BE REFLECTED IN THE MAJOR
RIVES...BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME OF THEM TO BANKFULL
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND DISCUSS WITH THE RIVER FORECAST
CENTER TO DETERMINE IF ANY PUBLIC ADVISORIES WOULD BE PERTINENT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225.

&&

$$

SDB MAY 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 291130 CCA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
330 AM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...CONTINUE GOOD SHORT TERM AGREEMENT. INITIALIZED WELL
AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. MID RANGE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HIGH
CANADIAN ARCTIC THAT DROPS SOUTH SATURDAY TO BE OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTERIOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH TO
THE ALASKA RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING. NAM CONTINUES TO WORK WELL FOR
THE FIRST 24 HOURS SO WILL BLEND THE FIRST 24 HOURS TO IT
TODAY...THEN USE A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
MID RANGE SHOWING MORE AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS SO WILL USE A
BLEND FOR THOSE PERIODS...THE EXTENDED PERIODS BEYOND TUESDAY
STILL A MESS SO WPC GUIDANCE MAY BE THE WAY TO GO.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 559 DAM LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE UPPER
YUKON FLATS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORY AS THE LOW DISSIPATES. A SHARP 573 DAM RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BUILD NORTH AND SLIDE EAST OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
SOUTHCENTRAL AREA TODAY AND WILL BE COME STATIONARY. A 519 DAM
LOW IN THE WEST CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MORE NORTHWEST OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOMES STATIONARY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH
CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL MOVE SOUTH TO LIE FROM THE CANADIAN
ARCHIPELAGO TO BARROW BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN FROM
NORTHERN BANKS ISLAND TO DEADHORSE TO POINT LAY BY NOON
SATURDAY...THEN FROM SOUTHERN BANKS ISLAND TO OVER THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING AS IT WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTH POLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE SOUTH TO 80N 140W SATURDAY MORNING WITH A 536 DAM
CENTER CONTINUING SOUTH TO OVER DEADHORSE SUNDAY MORNING AS IT
WEAKENS TO 542 DAM...AND TO OVER FAIRBANKS EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AT 545 DAM. AT 850 HPA...BIG CHANGES ON THE HORIZON AS THE
WEEKEND PROGRESSES. EXPECT SOME COOLING TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE YUKON FLATS MOVES EAST AND PULLS SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE INTERIOR. THEN A WARM UP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE A
PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
CELSIUS ABOVE THIS WEEKEND...BUT MONDAY THEY WILL TAKE A DIVE
SOUTH OF ZERO CELSIUS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF MAINLAND ALASKA
FOR A COUPLE DAYS.

SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN TODAY AND PULL BACK INTO CANADA AS IT LOSES THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
WEST COAST TODAY. THE RIDGE WEAKENS ON SATURDAY AS THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDS WEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. RIDGING OVER THE
ARCTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND BUILD SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC WILL PULL BACK TO THE SOUTH AS THE TROUGH BUILDS WEST
OVER THE COAST. A 982 MB LOW IN THE WEST CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL
MOVE NORTHWEST AS IT WEAKENS TO 998 MB SATURDAY MORNING AND IS
ABSORBED INTO A LOW IN THE SEA OF OKHOTSK EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DRIFT WEST OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...PATCHY DENSE FOG AGAIN TODAY WITH
THE STRATUS CEILINGS HANGING IN AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. HEAVY
RAINS OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING BUT SOME
HEAVY RAIN CAN STILL BE EXPECTED FROM THE DALTON HIGHWAY EAST THIS
AS THE LOW OVER THE YUKON FLATS MOVES EAST. ALMOST 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS BEEN RECORDED AT IVOTUK OVERNIGHT. IT WILL TAKE A DAY OR
SO FOR THE RAIN TO MAKE IT INTO THE RIVERS...BUT ONCE IT DOES
EXPECT RIVERS TO RISE TO BANKFULL IS SOME AREAS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL ONLY GET COOLER AS
THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES SOUTH ON SATURDAY
EXPECT THE RAIN SHOWERS TO TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY EAST OF BARROW. NO
SIGNIFICANT WINDS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT
MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH OUT WITH
ONLY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH
OF THE BERING STRAIT AND WEST OF THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY. THE
SHOWERS WILL BECOME ISOLATED SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
DECAY OVER THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND OFFSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SOME WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION UP THE COAST WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE
INTERIOR AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WITH SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN WARMING UP FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
SIGNIFICANT COOLING EVENT ON MONDAY THAT COULD PUSH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DOWN NEAR FREEZING FROM THE
TANANA RIVER NORTH. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR WITH A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS SUNDAY
EVENING AND OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...IT WILL BE DRY AND COOLER TODAY SO NO RED FLAG
ISSUES TODAY. AS WE CONTINUE TO DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IT LOOKS
LIKE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL MAKE IT INTO THE 20 PERCENT
RANGE...BUT NO WINDS OF SIGNIFICANCE. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TODAY
WILL BE VERY MINIMAL IF ANY AT ALL AND BE CONFINED TO EAST OF
CHALKYITSIK IN ZONE 220 AND HELMUT MOUNTAIN IN ZONE 218. ALSO
SOUTH OF CHICKEN IN ZONE 224 AND EAST OF TOK IN ZONE 226. THE
RAINS...EVEN THOUGH THEY WERE SPOTTY WILL HELP WITH GREENUP AND BY
NEXT WEEK THAT SHOULD BE REFLECTED IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AT IVOTUK ON THE ARCTIC
PLAIN WILL TAKE A DAY OR TWO TO BE REFLECTED IN THE MAJOR
RIVES...BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME OF THEM TO BANKFULL
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND DISCUSS WITH THE RIVER FORECAST
CENTER TO DETERMINE IF ANY PUBLIC ADVISORIES WOULD BE PERTINENT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225.

&&

$$

SDB MAY 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 291130 CCA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
330 AM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...CONTINUE GOOD SHORT TERM AGREEMENT. INITIALIZED WELL
AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. MID RANGE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HIGH
CANADIAN ARCTIC THAT DROPS SOUTH SATURDAY TO BE OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTERIOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH TO
THE ALASKA RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING. NAM CONTINUES TO WORK WELL FOR
THE FIRST 24 HOURS SO WILL BLEND THE FIRST 24 HOURS TO IT
TODAY...THEN USE A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
MID RANGE SHOWING MORE AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS SO WILL USE A
BLEND FOR THOSE PERIODS...THE EXTENDED PERIODS BEYOND TUESDAY
STILL A MESS SO WPC GUIDANCE MAY BE THE WAY TO GO.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 559 DAM LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE UPPER
YUKON FLATS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORY AS THE LOW DISSIPATES. A SHARP 573 DAM RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BUILD NORTH AND SLIDE EAST OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
SOUTHCENTRAL AREA TODAY AND WILL BE COME STATIONARY. A 519 DAM
LOW IN THE WEST CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MORE NORTHWEST OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOMES STATIONARY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH
CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL MOVE SOUTH TO LIE FROM THE CANADIAN
ARCHIPELAGO TO BARROW BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN FROM
NORTHERN BANKS ISLAND TO DEADHORSE TO POINT LAY BY NOON
SATURDAY...THEN FROM SOUTHERN BANKS ISLAND TO OVER THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING AS IT WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTH POLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE SOUTH TO 80N 140W SATURDAY MORNING WITH A 536 DAM
CENTER CONTINUING SOUTH TO OVER DEADHORSE SUNDAY MORNING AS IT
WEAKENS TO 542 DAM...AND TO OVER FAIRBANKS EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AT 545 DAM. AT 850 HPA...BIG CHANGES ON THE HORIZON AS THE
WEEKEND PROGRESSES. EXPECT SOME COOLING TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE YUKON FLATS MOVES EAST AND PULLS SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE INTERIOR. THEN A WARM UP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE A
PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
CELSIUS ABOVE THIS WEEKEND...BUT MONDAY THEY WILL TAKE A DIVE
SOUTH OF ZERO CELSIUS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF MAINLAND ALASKA
FOR A COUPLE DAYS.

SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN TODAY AND PULL BACK INTO CANADA AS IT LOSES THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
WEST COAST TODAY. THE RIDGE WEAKENS ON SATURDAY AS THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDS WEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. RIDGING OVER THE
ARCTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND BUILD SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC WILL PULL BACK TO THE SOUTH AS THE TROUGH BUILDS WEST
OVER THE COAST. A 982 MB LOW IN THE WEST CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL
MOVE NORTHWEST AS IT WEAKENS TO 998 MB SATURDAY MORNING AND IS
ABSORBED INTO A LOW IN THE SEA OF OKHOTSK EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DRIFT WEST OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...PATCHY DENSE FOG AGAIN TODAY WITH
THE STRATUS CEILINGS HANGING IN AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. HEAVY
RAINS OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING BUT SOME
HEAVY RAIN CAN STILL BE EXPECTED FROM THE DALTON HIGHWAY EAST THIS
AS THE LOW OVER THE YUKON FLATS MOVES EAST. ALMOST 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS BEEN RECORDED AT IVOTUK OVERNIGHT. IT WILL TAKE A DAY OR
SO FOR THE RAIN TO MAKE IT INTO THE RIVERS...BUT ONCE IT DOES
EXPECT RIVERS TO RISE TO BANKFULL IS SOME AREAS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL ONLY GET COOLER AS
THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES SOUTH ON SATURDAY
EXPECT THE RAIN SHOWERS TO TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY EAST OF BARROW. NO
SIGNIFICANT WINDS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT
MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH OUT WITH
ONLY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH
OF THE BERING STRAIT AND WEST OF THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY. THE
SHOWERS WILL BECOME ISOLATED SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
DECAY OVER THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND OFFSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SOME WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION UP THE COAST WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE
INTERIOR AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WITH SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN WARMING UP FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
SIGNIFICANT COOLING EVENT ON MONDAY THAT COULD PUSH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DOWN NEAR FREEZING FROM THE
TANANA RIVER NORTH. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR WITH A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS SUNDAY
EVENING AND OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...IT WILL BE DRY AND COOLER TODAY SO NO RED FLAG
ISSUES TODAY. AS WE CONTINUE TO DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IT LOOKS
LIKE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL MAKE IT INTO THE 20 PERCENT
RANGE...BUT NO WINDS OF SIGNIFICANCE. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TODAY
WILL BE VERY MINIMAL IF ANY AT ALL AND BE CONFINED TO EAST OF
CHALKYITSIK IN ZONE 220 AND HELMUT MOUNTAIN IN ZONE 218. ALSO
SOUTH OF CHICKEN IN ZONE 224 AND EAST OF TOK IN ZONE 226. THE
RAINS...EVEN THOUGH THEY WERE SPOTTY WILL HELP WITH GREENUP AND BY
NEXT WEEK THAT SHOULD BE REFLECTED IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AT IVOTUK ON THE ARCTIC
PLAIN WILL TAKE A DAY OR TWO TO BE REFLECTED IN THE MAJOR
RIVES...BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME OF THEM TO BANKFULL
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND DISCUSS WITH THE RIVER FORECAST
CENTER TO DETERMINE IF ANY PUBLIC ADVISORIES WOULD BE PERTINENT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225.

&&

$$

SDB MAY 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 291130
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
330 AM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...CONTINUE GOOD SHORT TERM AGREEMENT. INITIALIZED WELL
AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. MID RANGE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HIGH
CANADIAN ARCTIC THAT DROPS SOUTH SATURDAY TO BE OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTERIOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH TO
THE ALASKA RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING. NAM CONTINUES TO WORK WELL FOR
THE FIRST 24 HOURS SO WILL BLEND THE FIRST 24 HOURS TO IT
TODAY...THEN USE A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
MID RANGE SHOWING MORE AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS SO WILL USE A
BLEND FOR THOSE PERIODS...THE EXTENDED PERIODS BEYOND TUESDAY
STILL A MESS SO WPC GUIDANCE MAY BE THE WAY TO GO.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 559 DAM LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE UPPER
YUKON FLATS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORY AS THE LOW DISSIPATES. A SHARP 573 DAM RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BUILD NORTH AND SLIDE EAST OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
SOUTHCENTRAL AREA TODAY AND WILL BE COME STATIONARY. A 519 DAM
LOW IN THE WEST CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MORE NORTHWEST OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOMES STATIONARY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH
CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL MOVE SOUTH TO LIE FROM THE CANADIAN
ARCHIPELAGO TO BARROW BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN FROM
NORTHERN BANKS ISLAND TO DEADHORSE TO POINT LAY BY NOON
SATURDAY...THEN FROM SOUTHERN BANKS ISLAND TO OVER THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING AS IT WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTH POLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE SOUTH TO 80N 140W SATURDAY MORNING WITH A 536 DAM
CENTER CONTINUING SOUTH TO OVER DEADHORSE SUNDAY MORNING AS IT
WEAKENS TO 542 DAM...AND TO OVER FAIRBANKS EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AT 545 DAM. AT 850 HPA...BIG CHANGES ON THE HORIZON AS THE
WEEKEND PROGRESSES. EXPECT SOME COOLING TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE YUKON FLATS MOVES EAST AND PULLS SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE INTERIOR. THEN A WARM UP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE A
PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
CELSIUS ABOVE THIS WEEKEND...BUT MONDAY THEY WILL TAKE A DIVE
SOUTH OF ZERO CELSIUS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF MAINLAND ALASKA
FOR A COUPLE DAYS.

SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN TODAY AND PULL BACK INTO CANADA AS IT LOSES THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
WEST COAST TODAY. THE RIDGE WEAKENS ON SATURDAY AS THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDS WEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. RIDGING OVER THE
ARCTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND BUILD SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC WILL PULL BACK TO THE SOUTH AS THE TROUGH BUILDS WEST
OVER THE COAST. A 982 MB LOW IN THE WEST CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL
MOVE NORTHWEST AS IT WEAKENS TO 998 MB SATURDAY MORNING AND IS
ABSORBED INTO A LOW IN THE SEA OF OKHOTSK EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DRIFT WEST OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...PATCHY DENSE FOG AGAIN TODAY WITH
THE STRATUS CEILINGS HANGING IN AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. HEAVY
RAINS OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING BUT SOME
HEAVY RAIN CAN STILL BE EXPECTED FROM THE DALTON HIGHWAY EAST THIS
AS THE LOW OVER THE YUKON FLATS MOVES EAST. ALMOST 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS BEEN RECORDED AT IVOTUK OVERNIGHT. IT WILL TAKE A DAY OR
SO FOR THE RAIN TO MAKE IT INTO THE RIVERS...BUT ONCE IT DOES
EXPECT RIVERS TO RISE TO BANKFULL IS SOME AREAS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL ONLY GET COOLER AS
THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES SOUTH ON SATURDAY
EXPECT THE RAIN SHOWERS TO TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY EAST OF BARROW. NO
SIGNIFICANT WINDS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT
MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH OUT WITH
ONLY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH
OF THE BERING STRAIT AND WEST OF THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY. THE
SHOWERS WILL BECOME ISOLATED SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
DECAY OVER THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND OFFSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SOME WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION UP THE COAST WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE
INTERIOR AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WITH SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN WARMING UP FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
SIGNIFICANT COOLING EVENT ON MONDAY THAT COULD PUSH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DOWN NEAR FREEZING FROM THE
TANANA RIVER NORTH. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR WILL A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS SUNDAY EVENING
AND OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...IT WILL BE DRY AND COOLER TODAY SO NO RED FLAG
ISSUES TODAY. AS WE CONTINUE TO DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IT LOOKS
LIKE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL MAKE IT INTO THE 20 PERCENT
RANGE...BUT NO WINDS OF SIGNIFICANCE. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TODAY
WILL BE VERY MINIMAL IF ANY AT ALL AND BE CONFINED TO EAST OF
CHALKYITSIK IN ZONE 220 AND HELMUT MOUNTAIN IN ZONE 218. ALSO
SOUTH OF CHICKEN IN ZONE 224 AND EAST OF TOK IN ZONE 226. THE
RAINS...EVEN THOUGH THEY WERE SPOTTY WILL HELP WITH GREENUP AND BY
NEXT WEEK THAT SHOULD BE REFLECTED IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AT IVOTUK ON THE ARCTIC
PLAIN WILL TAKE A DAY OR TWO TO BE REFLECTED IN THE MAJOR
RIVES...BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME OF THEM TO BANKFULL
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND DISCUSS WITH THE RIVER FORECAST
CENTER TO DETERMINE IF ANY PUBLIC ADVISORIES WOULD BE PERTINENT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225.

&&

$$

SDB MAY 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 291130
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
330 AM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...CONTINUE GOOD SHORT TERM AGREEMENT. INITIALIZED WELL
AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. MID RANGE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HIGH
CANADIAN ARCTIC THAT DROPS SOUTH SATURDAY TO BE OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTERIOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH TO
THE ALASKA RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING. NAM CONTINUES TO WORK WELL FOR
THE FIRST 24 HOURS SO WILL BLEND THE FIRST 24 HOURS TO IT
TODAY...THEN USE A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
MID RANGE SHOWING MORE AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS SO WILL USE A
BLEND FOR THOSE PERIODS...THE EXTENDED PERIODS BEYOND TUESDAY
STILL A MESS SO WPC GUIDANCE MAY BE THE WAY TO GO.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 559 DAM LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE UPPER
YUKON FLATS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORY AS THE LOW DISSIPATES. A SHARP 573 DAM RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BUILD NORTH AND SLIDE EAST OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
SOUTHCENTRAL AREA TODAY AND WILL BE COME STATIONARY. A 519 DAM
LOW IN THE WEST CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MORE NORTHWEST OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOMES STATIONARY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH
CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL MOVE SOUTH TO LIE FROM THE CANADIAN
ARCHIPELAGO TO BARROW BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN FROM
NORTHERN BANKS ISLAND TO DEADHORSE TO POINT LAY BY NOON
SATURDAY...THEN FROM SOUTHERN BANKS ISLAND TO OVER THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING AS IT WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTH POLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE SOUTH TO 80N 140W SATURDAY MORNING WITH A 536 DAM
CENTER CONTINUING SOUTH TO OVER DEADHORSE SUNDAY MORNING AS IT
WEAKENS TO 542 DAM...AND TO OVER FAIRBANKS EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AT 545 DAM. AT 850 HPA...BIG CHANGES ON THE HORIZON AS THE
WEEKEND PROGRESSES. EXPECT SOME COOLING TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE YUKON FLATS MOVES EAST AND PULLS SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE INTERIOR. THEN A WARM UP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE A
PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
CELSIUS ABOVE THIS WEEKEND...BUT MONDAY THEY WILL TAKE A DIVE
SOUTH OF ZERO CELSIUS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF MAINLAND ALASKA
FOR A COUPLE DAYS.

SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN TODAY AND PULL BACK INTO CANADA AS IT LOSES THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
WEST COAST TODAY. THE RIDGE WEAKENS ON SATURDAY AS THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDS WEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. RIDGING OVER THE
ARCTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND BUILD SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC WILL PULL BACK TO THE SOUTH AS THE TROUGH BUILDS WEST
OVER THE COAST. A 982 MB LOW IN THE WEST CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL
MOVE NORTHWEST AS IT WEAKENS TO 998 MB SATURDAY MORNING AND IS
ABSORBED INTO A LOW IN THE SEA OF OKHOTSK EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DRIFT WEST OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...PATCHY DENSE FOG AGAIN TODAY WITH
THE STRATUS CEILINGS HANGING IN AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. HEAVY
RAINS OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING BUT SOME
HEAVY RAIN CAN STILL BE EXPECTED FROM THE DALTON HIGHWAY EAST THIS
AS THE LOW OVER THE YUKON FLATS MOVES EAST. ALMOST 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS BEEN RECORDED AT IVOTUK OVERNIGHT. IT WILL TAKE A DAY OR
SO FOR THE RAIN TO MAKE IT INTO THE RIVERS...BUT ONCE IT DOES
EXPECT RIVERS TO RISE TO BANKFULL IS SOME AREAS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL ONLY GET COOLER AS
THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES SOUTH ON SATURDAY
EXPECT THE RAIN SHOWERS TO TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY EAST OF BARROW. NO
SIGNIFICANT WINDS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT
MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH OUT WITH
ONLY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH
OF THE BERING STRAIT AND WEST OF THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY. THE
SHOWERS WILL BECOME ISOLATED SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
DECAY OVER THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND OFFSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SOME WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION UP THE COAST WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE
INTERIOR AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WITH SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN WARMING UP FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
SIGNIFICANT COOLING EVENT ON MONDAY THAT COULD PUSH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DOWN NEAR FREEZING FROM THE
TANANA RIVER NORTH. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR WILL A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS SUNDAY EVENING
AND OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...IT WILL BE DRY AND COOLER TODAY SO NO RED FLAG
ISSUES TODAY. AS WE CONTINUE TO DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IT LOOKS
LIKE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL MAKE IT INTO THE 20 PERCENT
RANGE...BUT NO WINDS OF SIGNIFICANCE. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TODAY
WILL BE VERY MINIMAL IF ANY AT ALL AND BE CONFINED TO EAST OF
CHALKYITSIK IN ZONE 220 AND HELMUT MOUNTAIN IN ZONE 218. ALSO
SOUTH OF CHICKEN IN ZONE 224 AND EAST OF TOK IN ZONE 226. THE
RAINS...EVEN THOUGH THEY WERE SPOTTY WILL HELP WITH GREENUP AND BY
NEXT WEEK THAT SHOULD BE REFLECTED IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AT IVOTUK ON THE ARCTIC
PLAIN WILL TAKE A DAY OR TWO TO BE REFLECTED IN THE MAJOR
RIVES...BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME OF THEM TO BANKFULL
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND DISCUSS WITH THE RIVER FORECAST
CENTER TO DETERMINE IF ANY PUBLIC ADVISORIES WOULD BE PERTINENT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225.

&&

$$

SDB MAY 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 282016
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1216 PM AKDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. CURRENT UPPER LEVEL
TROF OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF STATE HAS LOST A MAJORITY OF ITS
ENERGY. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...ALL
OF THE MODELS NOW DO FORM A CLOSED LOW ALOFT IN THE TROF BY THIS
EVENING NEAR BETTLES. THE LOW THEN MOVES EAST TO THE BORDER BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE TROF THIS TROF...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO
POP UP AHEAD OF THE TROF AS IT MOVES THE THERMAL TROF
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF COLD
AIR TO REPLACE THE THERMAL TROUGH IN THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA AS IT
PUSHES EASTWARD. CONVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL ON FRI THROUGH
NORTHERN ALASKA EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY RIGHT ALONG THE BORDER.

RELATIVELY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE BROOKS RANGE WILL BEGIN TONIGHT
WITH THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW. IT APPEARS AS OF NOW THAT
AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR.

THE NEXT LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT
IN THE BERING STRAIT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND SOUTHWARD.

WINDS ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT BUT SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY
LATE TONIGHT. DENSE FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN OVER THE ARCTIC
COAST TONIGHT AND INTO FRI MORNING.

STRONG FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS THIS EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF NORTHERN ALASKA WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT AT 500H.

Q VECTORS ALSO SHOW STRONG CONVERGENCE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. SO ALL OF THESE VARIABLE LEADS TO BELIEVE
THAT THIS DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD HAVE SOME DECENT
ENERGY WITH IT.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IT
APPEARS WITH THE LONG WAVE TROF SWINGING BACK IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHT RAINFALL OVER SECTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES UP OVER 30 FOR MOST AREAS
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODERATELY HEAVY RAIN IN THE BROOKS RANGE DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT
WILL RAISE THE RIVER LEVELS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY
FLOODING ISSUES. THE WATER ALREADY OVER THE BANK THAT HAS CAUSED
FLOODING ON THE DALTON HIGHWAY MAY RISE A LITTLE THERE BUT THE SAG
RIVER APPEARS TO NOT BE A THREAT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240.
&&

$$

CF MAY 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 282016
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1216 PM AKDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. CURRENT UPPER LEVEL
TROF OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF STATE HAS LOST A MAJORITY OF ITS
ENERGY. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...ALL
OF THE MODELS NOW DO FORM A CLOSED LOW ALOFT IN THE TROF BY THIS
EVENING NEAR BETTLES. THE LOW THEN MOVES EAST TO THE BORDER BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE TROF THIS TROF...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO
POP UP AHEAD OF THE TROF AS IT MOVES THE THERMAL TROF
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF COLD
AIR TO REPLACE THE THERMAL TROUGH IN THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA AS IT
PUSHES EASTWARD. CONVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL ON FRI THROUGH
NORTHERN ALASKA EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY RIGHT ALONG THE BORDER.

RELATIVELY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE BROOKS RANGE WILL BEGIN TONIGHT
WITH THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW. IT APPEARS AS OF NOW THAT
AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR.

THE NEXT LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT
IN THE BERING STRAIT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND SOUTHWARD.

WINDS ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT BUT SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY
LATE TONIGHT. DENSE FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN OVER THE ARCTIC
COAST TONIGHT AND INTO FRI MORNING.

STRONG FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS THIS EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF NORTHERN ALASKA WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT AT 500H.

Q VECTORS ALSO SHOW STRONG CONVERGENCE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. SO ALL OF THESE VARIABLE LEADS TO BELIEVE
THAT THIS DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD HAVE SOME DECENT
ENERGY WITH IT.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IT
APPEARS WITH THE LONG WAVE TROF SWINGING BACK IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHT RAINFALL OVER SECTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES UP OVER 30 FOR MOST AREAS
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODERATELY HEAVY RAIN IN THE BROOKS RANGE DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT
WILL RAISE THE RIVER LEVELS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY
FLOODING ISSUES. THE WATER ALREADY OVER THE BANK THAT HAS CAUSED
FLOODING ON THE DALTON HIGHWAY MAY RISE A LITTLE THERE BUT THE SAG
RIVER APPEARS TO NOT BE A THREAT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240.
&&

$$

CF MAY 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 281156
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
356 AM AKDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT AT INITIALIZATION. MODELS DISAGREE A BIT
ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE UPPER YUKON
FLATS TONIGHT. GFS WANTS TO KEEP IT A TROUGH WHILE OTHER MODELS
ARE CLOSING IT OFF AS HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 562 DAM. NAM HAS BEEN
WORKING PRETTY GOOD OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS IN THE SHORT TERM SO
WILL LEAN ON IT A BIT HEAVIER IN THE BLENDS. EXTENDED PERIODS IN
THE MODELS HAVE QUITE A LARGE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS SO LOOKS LIKE THE
WPC GUIDANCE IS THE WAY TO GO.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 574 DAM HIGH OVER EAGLE WILL BE ABSORBED
BY THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY
MORNING. THE 558 DAM CLOSED LOW THAT UNDERCUT THE HIGH AND IS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA INTERIOR. A SHORTWAVE LIES FROM THE
BERING STRAIT TO COOK INLET THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TO LIE FROM OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA TO BUCKLAND TO RUBY TO VALDEZ BY
MID AFTERNOON TODAY...THEN FROM OVER WRANGEL ISLAND TO POINT LAY
TO MANLEY HOT SPRINGS TO GLENNALLEN BY LATE THIS EVENING...THE
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AS A 562 DAM LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE YUKON FLATS NEAR BEAVER EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL LIE FROM OVER WAINWRIGHT TO THE LOW OVER FORT YUKON
TO GLENNALLEN FRIDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUES EAST TO LIE FROM
DEADHORSE TO THE LOW OVER CHALKYITSIK TO NORTHWAY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS IT CONTINUES INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY FRIDAY EVENING.
A SHARP RIDGE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND MOVE OVER THE
WEST COAST TONIGHT AND OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. A 516 DAM LOW IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE...THE THERMAL TROUGH LIES FROM POINT LAY TO BETTLES TO
CENTRAL TO EAGLE THEN EAST INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY THIS MORNING
AND WILL SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 1031 MB
RIDGE OVER THE ARCTIC WILL REMAIN STATIONARY WITH ONSHORE FLOW
PERSISTING FROM BARROW EAST WITH OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE WEST. A
1030 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY. A 975 MB LOW NEAR AMCHITKA WILL MOVE NORTH IN
THE BERING SEA AND BE NEAR 58N 180 BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA
AND WEST COAST AND BERING STRAIT. WEAK RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WEATHER FRONT MOVES
TO THE BROOKS RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL
BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC PLAIN FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
COLVILLE AND SAG RIVER DRAINAGES. PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING SO
WILL PUT UP HEADLINES FOR THE MORNING HOURS FROM BARROW EAST.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY EXCEPT EAST OF
WAINWRIGHT WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH AS THE WEATHER FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY RAIN...BUT AFTER THE UPPER LOW
DEVELOPS EXPECT SOME COOL AIR TO FLOW SOUTH CHANGING IT TO SNOW
EAST OF BARROW TONIGHT.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
BY MID AFTERNOON SO LOOK FOR SOME CLEARING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
A PERIOD OF RAIN NORTH OF GALENA BEFORE IT STARTS TO CLEAR. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE INLAND. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF AMBLER
THIS AFTERNOON.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN ZONE 218, EASTERN ZONE 219, WEST OF
FORT YUKON IN ZONE 220, NORTHEAST OF MANLEY HOT SPRINGS IN ZONE
221, NORTH OF FAIRBANKS IN ZONE 222, FROM DELTA JUNCTION EAST IN
ZONE 223, MOST OF ZONE 224, AND EAST OF THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY IN
ZONE 226. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER TODAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUED DRY OVER THE AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE
SOME WETTING RAINS WITH THIS FRONT TONIGHT. DRIEST AREAS TODAY
WILL BE EASTERN ZONE 224 AND EAST OF FORT YUKON IN ZONE 220. SOME
GUSTY WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS OTHERWISE WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH FROM
THE WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL BE TRENDING DOWN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER...AND WE HAVE ALMOST
COMPLETED GREENUP...EVEN THOUGH FUELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY
DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY RED FLAG CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...CONCERNED ABOUT THE RIVERS DRAINING INTO THE SAG AND
COLVILLE RIVERS BRINGING THEM BACK UP TO NEAR ACTION STAGE AS
SOME HEAVIER RAINS OF AROUND ONE INCH FALL INTO THOSE DRAINAGES.
WILL BRIEF THE ONCOMING CREW ABOUT POTENTIAL FLOOD WATCH NEEDED
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240.

&&

$$

SDB MAY 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 281156
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
356 AM AKDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT AT INITIALIZATION. MODELS DISAGREE A BIT
ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE UPPER YUKON
FLATS TONIGHT. GFS WANTS TO KEEP IT A TROUGH WHILE OTHER MODELS
ARE CLOSING IT OFF AS HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 562 DAM. NAM HAS BEEN
WORKING PRETTY GOOD OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS IN THE SHORT TERM SO
WILL LEAN ON IT A BIT HEAVIER IN THE BLENDS. EXTENDED PERIODS IN
THE MODELS HAVE QUITE A LARGE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS SO LOOKS LIKE THE
WPC GUIDANCE IS THE WAY TO GO.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 574 DAM HIGH OVER EAGLE WILL BE ABSORBED
BY THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY
MORNING. THE 558 DAM CLOSED LOW THAT UNDERCUT THE HIGH AND IS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA INTERIOR. A SHORTWAVE LIES FROM THE
BERING STRAIT TO COOK INLET THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TO LIE FROM OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA TO BUCKLAND TO RUBY TO VALDEZ BY
MID AFTERNOON TODAY...THEN FROM OVER WRANGEL ISLAND TO POINT LAY
TO MANLEY HOT SPRINGS TO GLENNALLEN BY LATE THIS EVENING...THE
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AS A 562 DAM LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE YUKON FLATS NEAR BEAVER EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL LIE FROM OVER WAINWRIGHT TO THE LOW OVER FORT YUKON
TO GLENNALLEN FRIDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUES EAST TO LIE FROM
DEADHORSE TO THE LOW OVER CHALKYITSIK TO NORTHWAY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS IT CONTINUES INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY FRIDAY EVENING.
A SHARP RIDGE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND MOVE OVER THE
WEST COAST TONIGHT AND OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. A 516 DAM LOW IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE...THE THERMAL TROUGH LIES FROM POINT LAY TO BETTLES TO
CENTRAL TO EAGLE THEN EAST INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY THIS MORNING
AND WILL SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 1031 MB
RIDGE OVER THE ARCTIC WILL REMAIN STATIONARY WITH ONSHORE FLOW
PERSISTING FROM BARROW EAST WITH OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE WEST. A
1030 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY. A 975 MB LOW NEAR AMCHITKA WILL MOVE NORTH IN
THE BERING SEA AND BE NEAR 58N 180 BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA
AND WEST COAST AND BERING STRAIT. WEAK RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WEATHER FRONT MOVES
TO THE BROOKS RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL
BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC PLAIN FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
COLVILLE AND SAG RIVER DRAINAGES. PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING SO
WILL PUT UP HEADLINES FOR THE MORNING HOURS FROM BARROW EAST.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY EXCEPT EAST OF
WAINWRIGHT WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH AS THE WEATHER FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY RAIN...BUT AFTER THE UPPER LOW
DEVELOPS EXPECT SOME COOL AIR TO FLOW SOUTH CHANGING IT TO SNOW
EAST OF BARROW TONIGHT.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
BY MID AFTERNOON SO LOOK FOR SOME CLEARING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
A PERIOD OF RAIN NORTH OF GALENA BEFORE IT STARTS TO CLEAR. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE INLAND. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF AMBLER
THIS AFTERNOON.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN ZONE 218, EASTERN ZONE 219, WEST OF
FORT YUKON IN ZONE 220, NORTHEAST OF MANLEY HOT SPRINGS IN ZONE
221, NORTH OF FAIRBANKS IN ZONE 222, FROM DELTA JUNCTION EAST IN
ZONE 223, MOST OF ZONE 224, AND EAST OF THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY IN
ZONE 226. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER TODAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUED DRY OVER THE AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE
SOME WETTING RAINS WITH THIS FRONT TONIGHT. DRIEST AREAS TODAY
WILL BE EASTERN ZONE 224 AND EAST OF FORT YUKON IN ZONE 220. SOME
GUSTY WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS OTHERWISE WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH FROM
THE WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL BE TRENDING DOWN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER...AND WE HAVE ALMOST
COMPLETED GREENUP...EVEN THOUGH FUELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY
DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY RED FLAG CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...CONCERNED ABOUT THE RIVERS DRAINING INTO THE SAG AND
COLVILLE RIVERS BRINGING THEM BACK UP TO NEAR ACTION STAGE AS
SOME HEAVIER RAINS OF AROUND ONE INCH FALL INTO THOSE DRAINAGES.
WILL BRIEF THE ONCOMING CREW ABOUT POTENTIAL FLOOD WATCH NEEDED
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240.

&&

$$

SDB MAY 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 281156
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
356 AM AKDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT AT INITIALIZATION. MODELS DISAGREE A BIT
ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE UPPER YUKON
FLATS TONIGHT. GFS WANTS TO KEEP IT A TROUGH WHILE OTHER MODELS
ARE CLOSING IT OFF AS HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 562 DAM. NAM HAS BEEN
WORKING PRETTY GOOD OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS IN THE SHORT TERM SO
WILL LEAN ON IT A BIT HEAVIER IN THE BLENDS. EXTENDED PERIODS IN
THE MODELS HAVE QUITE A LARGE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS SO LOOKS LIKE THE
WPC GUIDANCE IS THE WAY TO GO.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 574 DAM HIGH OVER EAGLE WILL BE ABSORBED
BY THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY
MORNING. THE 558 DAM CLOSED LOW THAT UNDERCUT THE HIGH AND IS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA INTERIOR. A SHORTWAVE LIES FROM THE
BERING STRAIT TO COOK INLET THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TO LIE FROM OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA TO BUCKLAND TO RUBY TO VALDEZ BY
MID AFTERNOON TODAY...THEN FROM OVER WRANGEL ISLAND TO POINT LAY
TO MANLEY HOT SPRINGS TO GLENNALLEN BY LATE THIS EVENING...THE
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AS A 562 DAM LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE YUKON FLATS NEAR BEAVER EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL LIE FROM OVER WAINWRIGHT TO THE LOW OVER FORT YUKON
TO GLENNALLEN FRIDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUES EAST TO LIE FROM
DEADHORSE TO THE LOW OVER CHALKYITSIK TO NORTHWAY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS IT CONTINUES INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY FRIDAY EVENING.
A SHARP RIDGE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND MOVE OVER THE
WEST COAST TONIGHT AND OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. A 516 DAM LOW IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE...THE THERMAL TROUGH LIES FROM POINT LAY TO BETTLES TO
CENTRAL TO EAGLE THEN EAST INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY THIS MORNING
AND WILL SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 1031 MB
RIDGE OVER THE ARCTIC WILL REMAIN STATIONARY WITH ONSHORE FLOW
PERSISTING FROM BARROW EAST WITH OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE WEST. A
1030 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY. A 975 MB LOW NEAR AMCHITKA WILL MOVE NORTH IN
THE BERING SEA AND BE NEAR 58N 180 BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA
AND WEST COAST AND BERING STRAIT. WEAK RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WEATHER FRONT MOVES
TO THE BROOKS RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL
BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC PLAIN FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
COLVILLE AND SAG RIVER DRAINAGES. PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING SO
WILL PUT UP HEADLINES FOR THE MORNING HOURS FROM BARROW EAST.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY EXCEPT EAST OF
WAINWRIGHT WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH AS THE WEATHER FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY RAIN...BUT AFTER THE UPPER LOW
DEVELOPS EXPECT SOME COOL AIR TO FLOW SOUTH CHANGING IT TO SNOW
EAST OF BARROW TONIGHT.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
BY MID AFTERNOON SO LOOK FOR SOME CLEARING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
A PERIOD OF RAIN NORTH OF GALENA BEFORE IT STARTS TO CLEAR. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE INLAND. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF AMBLER
THIS AFTERNOON.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN ZONE 218, EASTERN ZONE 219, WEST OF
FORT YUKON IN ZONE 220, NORTHEAST OF MANLEY HOT SPRINGS IN ZONE
221, NORTH OF FAIRBANKS IN ZONE 222, FROM DELTA JUNCTION EAST IN
ZONE 223, MOST OF ZONE 224, AND EAST OF THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY IN
ZONE 226. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER TODAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUED DRY OVER THE AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE
SOME WETTING RAINS WITH THIS FRONT TONIGHT. DRIEST AREAS TODAY
WILL BE EASTERN ZONE 224 AND EAST OF FORT YUKON IN ZONE 220. SOME
GUSTY WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS OTHERWISE WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH FROM
THE WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL BE TRENDING DOWN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER...AND WE HAVE ALMOST
COMPLETED GREENUP...EVEN THOUGH FUELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY
DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY RED FLAG CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...CONCERNED ABOUT THE RIVERS DRAINING INTO THE SAG AND
COLVILLE RIVERS BRINGING THEM BACK UP TO NEAR ACTION STAGE AS
SOME HEAVIER RAINS OF AROUND ONE INCH FALL INTO THOSE DRAINAGES.
WILL BRIEF THE ONCOMING CREW ABOUT POTENTIAL FLOOD WATCH NEEDED
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240.

&&

$$

SDB MAY 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 281156
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
356 AM AKDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT AT INITIALIZATION. MODELS DISAGREE A BIT
ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE UPPER YUKON
FLATS TONIGHT. GFS WANTS TO KEEP IT A TROUGH WHILE OTHER MODELS
ARE CLOSING IT OFF AS HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 562 DAM. NAM HAS BEEN
WORKING PRETTY GOOD OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS IN THE SHORT TERM SO
WILL LEAN ON IT A BIT HEAVIER IN THE BLENDS. EXTENDED PERIODS IN
THE MODELS HAVE QUITE A LARGE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS SO LOOKS LIKE THE
WPC GUIDANCE IS THE WAY TO GO.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 574 DAM HIGH OVER EAGLE WILL BE ABSORBED
BY THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY
MORNING. THE 558 DAM CLOSED LOW THAT UNDERCUT THE HIGH AND IS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA INTERIOR. A SHORTWAVE LIES FROM THE
BERING STRAIT TO COOK INLET THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TO LIE FROM OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA TO BUCKLAND TO RUBY TO VALDEZ BY
MID AFTERNOON TODAY...THEN FROM OVER WRANGEL ISLAND TO POINT LAY
TO MANLEY HOT SPRINGS TO GLENNALLEN BY LATE THIS EVENING...THE
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AS A 562 DAM LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE YUKON FLATS NEAR BEAVER EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL LIE FROM OVER WAINWRIGHT TO THE LOW OVER FORT YUKON
TO GLENNALLEN FRIDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUES EAST TO LIE FROM
DEADHORSE TO THE LOW OVER CHALKYITSIK TO NORTHWAY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS IT CONTINUES INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY FRIDAY EVENING.
A SHARP RIDGE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND MOVE OVER THE
WEST COAST TONIGHT AND OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. A 516 DAM LOW IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE...THE THERMAL TROUGH LIES FROM POINT LAY TO BETTLES TO
CENTRAL TO EAGLE THEN EAST INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY THIS MORNING
AND WILL SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 1031 MB
RIDGE OVER THE ARCTIC WILL REMAIN STATIONARY WITH ONSHORE FLOW
PERSISTING FROM BARROW EAST WITH OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE WEST. A
1030 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY. A 975 MB LOW NEAR AMCHITKA WILL MOVE NORTH IN
THE BERING SEA AND BE NEAR 58N 180 BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA
AND WEST COAST AND BERING STRAIT. WEAK RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WEATHER FRONT MOVES
TO THE BROOKS RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL
BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC PLAIN FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
COLVILLE AND SAG RIVER DRAINAGES. PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING SO
WILL PUT UP HEADLINES FOR THE MORNING HOURS FROM BARROW EAST.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY EXCEPT EAST OF
WAINWRIGHT WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH AS THE WEATHER FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY RAIN...BUT AFTER THE UPPER LOW
DEVELOPS EXPECT SOME COOL AIR TO FLOW SOUTH CHANGING IT TO SNOW
EAST OF BARROW TONIGHT.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
BY MID AFTERNOON SO LOOK FOR SOME CLEARING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
A PERIOD OF RAIN NORTH OF GALENA BEFORE IT STARTS TO CLEAR. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE INLAND. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF AMBLER
THIS AFTERNOON.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN ZONE 218, EASTERN ZONE 219, WEST OF
FORT YUKON IN ZONE 220, NORTHEAST OF MANLEY HOT SPRINGS IN ZONE
221, NORTH OF FAIRBANKS IN ZONE 222, FROM DELTA JUNCTION EAST IN
ZONE 223, MOST OF ZONE 224, AND EAST OF THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY IN
ZONE 226. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER TODAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUED DRY OVER THE AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE
SOME WETTING RAINS WITH THIS FRONT TONIGHT. DRIEST AREAS TODAY
WILL BE EASTERN ZONE 224 AND EAST OF FORT YUKON IN ZONE 220. SOME
GUSTY WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS OTHERWISE WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH FROM
THE WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL BE TRENDING DOWN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER...AND WE HAVE ALMOST
COMPLETED GREENUP...EVEN THOUGH FUELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY
DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY RED FLAG CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...CONCERNED ABOUT THE RIVERS DRAINING INTO THE SAG AND
COLVILLE RIVERS BRINGING THEM BACK UP TO NEAR ACTION STAGE AS
SOME HEAVIER RAINS OF AROUND ONE INCH FALL INTO THOSE DRAINAGES.
WILL BRIEF THE ONCOMING CREW ABOUT POTENTIAL FLOOD WATCH NEEDED
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240.

&&

$$

SDB MAY 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 272024
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1224 PM AKDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH FIRST 36 HOURS FOR THE MOST
PART. THE NAM CERTAINLY BELIEVES THAT THE SHORT WAVE MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM THE WEST COAST ON THU WILL DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW AT 500 SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FORT YUKON. THIS ACTUALLY MAY
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION CONSIDERING ALL OF THE MODELS DO GIVE
CONSIDERABLE PLAY TO THE INTENSITY OF THE SHORT WAVE.

THE SHORTWAVE IS GIVEN CONSIDERABLE PLAY BY THE GFS IF WE ONLY
OBSERVE THE QPF AMOUNTS. THE FRONTOGENESIS VALUES ARE NOT HUGELY
IMPRESSIVE ALOFT FROM THE GFS WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN NO UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THE NAM DOES SHOW SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS BUT IT ALSO
HAS A A CLOSED LOW. THE NAM DOES MAKE THE MOST SENSE AT THIS POINT
IN TERMS OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR THE QPF AMOUNTS DISPLAYED.

BELIEVE THAT THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE BROOKS RANGE. IT APPEARS
THAT THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL POSSIBLY GET A LITTLE PRECIPITATION
BUT MAY BE DOWNSLOPED OUT INITIALLY.

THE WEST COAST WILL SEE SOME RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SHORT
WAVE MOVES NORTHWARD BUT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL AFTER THE
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN COMPLETE DISAGREEMENT AS THE TIME
STEPS INCREASE WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING A COOL DOWN OVER ALL OF
NORTHERN ALASKA WITH A MAJOR COLD FRONT OVER THE ARCTIC COAST
WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS A COOLER PATTERN WITH A SLANTED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUT NOT NEAR THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF.

ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WILL POSE DENSE FOG THREATS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT ON THU BUT AT
THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT RH VALUES TO BE THAT LOW AS TO HAVE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING APPROXIMATELY AN INCH OR MORE OF QPF IN
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE
BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRI MORNING. THIS
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY HIGH WATER IN THE AREAS THAT
ALREADY HAVE SEEN FLOODING.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

CF MAY 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 272024
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1224 PM AKDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH FIRST 36 HOURS FOR THE MOST
PART. THE NAM CERTAINLY BELIEVES THAT THE SHORT WAVE MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM THE WEST COAST ON THU WILL DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW AT 500 SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FORT YUKON. THIS ACTUALLY MAY
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION CONSIDERING ALL OF THE MODELS DO GIVE
CONSIDERABLE PLAY TO THE INTENSITY OF THE SHORT WAVE.

THE SHORTWAVE IS GIVEN CONSIDERABLE PLAY BY THE GFS IF WE ONLY
OBSERVE THE QPF AMOUNTS. THE FRONTOGENESIS VALUES ARE NOT HUGELY
IMPRESSIVE ALOFT FROM THE GFS WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN NO UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THE NAM DOES SHOW SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS BUT IT ALSO
HAS A A CLOSED LOW. THE NAM DOES MAKE THE MOST SENSE AT THIS POINT
IN TERMS OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR THE QPF AMOUNTS DISPLAYED.

BELIEVE THAT THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE BROOKS RANGE. IT APPEARS
THAT THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL POSSIBLY GET A LITTLE PRECIPITATION
BUT MAY BE DOWNSLOPED OUT INITIALLY.

THE WEST COAST WILL SEE SOME RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SHORT
WAVE MOVES NORTHWARD BUT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL AFTER THE
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN COMPLETE DISAGREEMENT AS THE TIME
STEPS INCREASE WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING A COOL DOWN OVER ALL OF
NORTHERN ALASKA WITH A MAJOR COLD FRONT OVER THE ARCTIC COAST
WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS A COOLER PATTERN WITH A SLANTED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUT NOT NEAR THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF.

ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WILL POSE DENSE FOG THREATS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT ON THU BUT AT
THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT RH VALUES TO BE THAT LOW AS TO HAVE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING APPROXIMATELY AN INCH OR MORE OF QPF IN
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE
BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRI MORNING. THIS
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY HIGH WATER IN THE AREAS THAT
ALREADY HAVE SEEN FLOODING.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

CF MAY 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 272024
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1224 PM AKDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH FIRST 36 HOURS FOR THE MOST
PART. THE NAM CERTAINLY BELIEVES THAT THE SHORT WAVE MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM THE WEST COAST ON THU WILL DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW AT 500 SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FORT YUKON. THIS ACTUALLY MAY
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION CONSIDERING ALL OF THE MODELS DO GIVE
CONSIDERABLE PLAY TO THE INTENSITY OF THE SHORT WAVE.

THE SHORTWAVE IS GIVEN CONSIDERABLE PLAY BY THE GFS IF WE ONLY
OBSERVE THE QPF AMOUNTS. THE FRONTOGENESIS VALUES ARE NOT HUGELY
IMPRESSIVE ALOFT FROM THE GFS WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN NO UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THE NAM DOES SHOW SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS BUT IT ALSO
HAS A A CLOSED LOW. THE NAM DOES MAKE THE MOST SENSE AT THIS POINT
IN TERMS OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR THE QPF AMOUNTS DISPLAYED.

BELIEVE THAT THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE BROOKS RANGE. IT APPEARS
THAT THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL POSSIBLY GET A LITTLE PRECIPITATION
BUT MAY BE DOWNSLOPED OUT INITIALLY.

THE WEST COAST WILL SEE SOME RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SHORT
WAVE MOVES NORTHWARD BUT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL AFTER THE
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN COMPLETE DISAGREEMENT AS THE TIME
STEPS INCREASE WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING A COOL DOWN OVER ALL OF
NORTHERN ALASKA WITH A MAJOR COLD FRONT OVER THE ARCTIC COAST
WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS A COOLER PATTERN WITH A SLANTED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUT NOT NEAR THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF.

ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WILL POSE DENSE FOG THREATS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT ON THU BUT AT
THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT RH VALUES TO BE THAT LOW AS TO HAVE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING APPROXIMATELY AN INCH OR MORE OF QPF IN
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE
BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRI MORNING. THIS
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY HIGH WATER IN THE AREAS THAT
ALREADY HAVE SEEN FLOODING.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

CF MAY 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 271205
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
405 AM AKDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE MODELS HAVE HAD
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. WILL NUDGE THE
CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST TO A BLEND OF THE LATEST MODELS BUT
EXPECT THAT WILL NOT CHANGE ANYTHING VERY MUCH. PER NORMAL GFS
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE SO WILL BLEND WITH THE
NAM TO PARE IT BACK A BIT. WILL USE A BLEND OF MODELS TO COME UP
WITH QPF VALUES FOR THE BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC PLAIN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 570 DAM HIGH WITH A CLOSED CENTER HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY AND WILL DROP SOUTH
OVER THE UPPER YUKON AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SOME STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE HIGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN TO 575 DAM AS IT IS
ABSORBED INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC THURSDAY. THE
558 DAM CLOSED LOW THAT IS UNDERCUTTING THE HIGH WILL MOVE
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA
INTERIOR. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 521 DAM LOW OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA THIS
MORNING THEN NORTH TO THE BROOKS RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER...STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLAND
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE INTERIOR.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO LIE FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND BY THURSDAY MORNING CONTINUING NORTHEAST TO LIE
FROM POINT HOPE TO GLENNALLEN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND FROM
POINT LAY TO NORTHWAY BY THURSDAY EVENING...THEN FROM BARROW TO
OLD CROW BY FRIDAY MORNING.

SURFACE...THE THERMAL TROUGH LIES FROM KOTZEBUE TO JUST NORTH OF
FAIRBANKS TO NORTHWAY AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND PULL BACK
INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY TODAY AS A WEATHER FRONT MOVES UP THE
WEST COAST. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL LIE FROM AMBLER TO FT YUKON
AND EAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BE CONFINED TO THE UPPER
YUKON FLATS AND EASTERN FORTYMILE COUNTRY THURSDAY. IT WILL REFORM
OVER THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY SATURDAY. A 1029 MB HIGH 200 NM
NORTHWEST OF BARROW WILL MOVE TO 200 NM NORTH OF BARROW BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. A 990
MB LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS A
976 MB LOW MOVES FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC TO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY...THEN INTO THE WEST CENTRAL BERING
SEA BY THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWEST UNTIL IT IS
ABSORBED BY A 987 MB LOW IN THE SEA OF OKHOTSK ON SATURDAY. A 1034
MB HIGH IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY
THROUGH SATURDAY. A DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY
NORTH UP THE WEST COAST TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE LOWER YUKON
DELTA...NORTON SOUND...AND THE BERING STRAIT THIS
MORNING...SPREADING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE THE SEWARD
PENINSULA AND PARTS OF KOTZEBUE SOUND AND THE UPPER NOATAK AND
KOBUK BASINS.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WITH THE HIGH CENTER JUST NORTH OF
BARROW EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW FROM BARROW EAST AND OFFSHORE FLOW TO
THE WEST OF BARROW. IN EITHER CASE THE STRATUS WILL NOT BE MOVING
VERY FAR OR GOING AWAY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING SO WILL
HEADLINE ZONES 202...203 AND 204. CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS
MORNING...THEN PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT LOOKING
FOR ANY ACCUMULATION. VISIBILITY IMPROVING TO ABOVE 1 MILE FOR
MOST AREAS AFTER 9 AM. WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN PICKING UP A BIT AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST SPREADING
EAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION COULD BE HEAVY IN SOME
AREAS AS MODELS ARE INDICATING OVER AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN
THE BROOKS RANGE AND CENTRAL ARCTIC PLAIN.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT
SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS NORTH ALONG THE COAST FROM THE LOWER YUKON
DELTA TO NORTON SOUND TO THE BERING STRAIT THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
WORK INLAND A BIT THROUGH THE DAY BUT REMAIN MOSTLY WEST OF THE
MIDDLE YUKON RIVER VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS. SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
UPPER NOATAK AND KOBUK VALLEYS LATER TODAY MAY DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS AS MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE AREA.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT GET PICKED UP BY THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY AND WILL
SPREAD SOME HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF RAIN INTO THE NOATAK...KOBUK AND
KOYUKUK BASINS THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY MORNING...THIS BEARS
WATCHING AS MODELS ARE MAKING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
OF OVER AN INCH IN SOME OF THOSE AREAS. NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAINLY OFFSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST AND
LIGHT WINDS INLAND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS MOISTURE
OUT OF THE GULF INTO THE INTERIOR. SOME SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH. THE ONLY AREA FOR
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE BORDER IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE AREA WILL
SQUASH ANY CONVECTION. SOME CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. WINDS
WESTERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH FOR MOST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOME DRYING TODAY BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 25 PERCENT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
SO NO NEED FOR RED FLAGS TODAY...HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WINDS MAY BE GUSTY INTO
THE THERMAL TROUGH TO 25 MPH REQUIRING RED FLAGS. WILL NEED TO
TAKE A GOOD LOOK AT GUIDANCE FOR ZONES 218...219...220...221...223
AND 224. FUELS REMAIN VERY DRY...BUT GREENUP CONTINUES AND IT
LOOKS LIKE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE STARTING TO REACT TO THE
GREENER CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...MODELS ARE TRYING TO MAKE QUITE A BIT OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE AND CENTRAL ARCTIC
PLAIN STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH ALREADY SATURATED
CONDITIONS IN THE ARCTIC PLAIN AND RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH
THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC. WILL NEED TO KEEP A KEEN EYE ON THE
NEXT COUPLE MODEL RUNS FOR THAT AREA. WILL HAVE THE NEXT SHIFT
CHECK WITH THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER TO SEE HOW THEIR MODELS RUNS
ARE HANDLING THE QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE AREA AND WHAT IF ANY
REACTION THE RIVERS WILL HAVE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

$$

SDB MAY 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 271205
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
405 AM AKDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE MODELS HAVE HAD
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. WILL NUDGE THE
CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST TO A BLEND OF THE LATEST MODELS BUT
EXPECT THAT WILL NOT CHANGE ANYTHING VERY MUCH. PER NORMAL GFS
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE SO WILL BLEND WITH THE
NAM TO PARE IT BACK A BIT. WILL USE A BLEND OF MODELS TO COME UP
WITH QPF VALUES FOR THE BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC PLAIN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 570 DAM HIGH WITH A CLOSED CENTER HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY AND WILL DROP SOUTH
OVER THE UPPER YUKON AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SOME STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE HIGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN TO 575 DAM AS IT IS
ABSORBED INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC THURSDAY. THE
558 DAM CLOSED LOW THAT IS UNDERCUTTING THE HIGH WILL MOVE
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA
INTERIOR. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 521 DAM LOW OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA THIS
MORNING THEN NORTH TO THE BROOKS RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER...STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLAND
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE INTERIOR.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO LIE FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND BY THURSDAY MORNING CONTINUING NORTHEAST TO LIE
FROM POINT HOPE TO GLENNALLEN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND FROM
POINT LAY TO NORTHWAY BY THURSDAY EVENING...THEN FROM BARROW TO
OLD CROW BY FRIDAY MORNING.

SURFACE...THE THERMAL TROUGH LIES FROM KOTZEBUE TO JUST NORTH OF
FAIRBANKS TO NORTHWAY AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND PULL BACK
INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY TODAY AS A WEATHER FRONT MOVES UP THE
WEST COAST. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL LIE FROM AMBLER TO FT YUKON
AND EAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BE CONFINED TO THE UPPER
YUKON FLATS AND EASTERN FORTYMILE COUNTRY THURSDAY. IT WILL REFORM
OVER THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY SATURDAY. A 1029 MB HIGH 200 NM
NORTHWEST OF BARROW WILL MOVE TO 200 NM NORTH OF BARROW BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. A 990
MB LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS A
976 MB LOW MOVES FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC TO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY...THEN INTO THE WEST CENTRAL BERING
SEA BY THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWEST UNTIL IT IS
ABSORBED BY A 987 MB LOW IN THE SEA OF OKHOTSK ON SATURDAY. A 1034
MB HIGH IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY
THROUGH SATURDAY. A DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY
NORTH UP THE WEST COAST TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE LOWER YUKON
DELTA...NORTON SOUND...AND THE BERING STRAIT THIS
MORNING...SPREADING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE THE SEWARD
PENINSULA AND PARTS OF KOTZEBUE SOUND AND THE UPPER NOATAK AND
KOBUK BASINS.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WITH THE HIGH CENTER JUST NORTH OF
BARROW EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW FROM BARROW EAST AND OFFSHORE FLOW TO
THE WEST OF BARROW. IN EITHER CASE THE STRATUS WILL NOT BE MOVING
VERY FAR OR GOING AWAY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING SO WILL
HEADLINE ZONES 202...203 AND 204. CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS
MORNING...THEN PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT LOOKING
FOR ANY ACCUMULATION. VISIBILITY IMPROVING TO ABOVE 1 MILE FOR
MOST AREAS AFTER 9 AM. WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN PICKING UP A BIT AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST SPREADING
EAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION COULD BE HEAVY IN SOME
AREAS AS MODELS ARE INDICATING OVER AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN
THE BROOKS RANGE AND CENTRAL ARCTIC PLAIN.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT
SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS NORTH ALONG THE COAST FROM THE LOWER YUKON
DELTA TO NORTON SOUND TO THE BERING STRAIT THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
WORK INLAND A BIT THROUGH THE DAY BUT REMAIN MOSTLY WEST OF THE
MIDDLE YUKON RIVER VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS. SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
UPPER NOATAK AND KOBUK VALLEYS LATER TODAY MAY DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS AS MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE AREA.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT GET PICKED UP BY THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY AND WILL
SPREAD SOME HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF RAIN INTO THE NOATAK...KOBUK AND
KOYUKUK BASINS THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY MORNING...THIS BEARS
WATCHING AS MODELS ARE MAKING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
OF OVER AN INCH IN SOME OF THOSE AREAS. NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAINLY OFFSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST AND
LIGHT WINDS INLAND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS MOISTURE
OUT OF THE GULF INTO THE INTERIOR. SOME SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH. THE ONLY AREA FOR
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE BORDER IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE AREA WILL
SQUASH ANY CONVECTION. SOME CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. WINDS
WESTERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH FOR MOST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOME DRYING TODAY BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 25 PERCENT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
SO NO NEED FOR RED FLAGS TODAY...HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WINDS MAY BE GUSTY INTO
THE THERMAL TROUGH TO 25 MPH REQUIRING RED FLAGS. WILL NEED TO
TAKE A GOOD LOOK AT GUIDANCE FOR ZONES 218...219...220...221...223
AND 224. FUELS REMAIN VERY DRY...BUT GREENUP CONTINUES AND IT
LOOKS LIKE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE STARTING TO REACT TO THE
GREENER CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...MODELS ARE TRYING TO MAKE QUITE A BIT OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE AND CENTRAL ARCTIC
PLAIN STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH ALREADY SATURATED
CONDITIONS IN THE ARCTIC PLAIN AND RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH
THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC. WILL NEED TO KEEP A KEEN EYE ON THE
NEXT COUPLE MODEL RUNS FOR THAT AREA. WILL HAVE THE NEXT SHIFT
CHECK WITH THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER TO SEE HOW THEIR MODELS RUNS
ARE HANDLING THE QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE AREA AND WHAT IF ANY
REACTION THE RIVERS WILL HAVE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

$$

SDB MAY 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 271205
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
405 AM AKDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE MODELS HAVE HAD
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. WILL NUDGE THE
CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST TO A BLEND OF THE LATEST MODELS BUT
EXPECT THAT WILL NOT CHANGE ANYTHING VERY MUCH. PER NORMAL GFS
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE SO WILL BLEND WITH THE
NAM TO PARE IT BACK A BIT. WILL USE A BLEND OF MODELS TO COME UP
WITH QPF VALUES FOR THE BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC PLAIN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 570 DAM HIGH WITH A CLOSED CENTER HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY AND WILL DROP SOUTH
OVER THE UPPER YUKON AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SOME STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE HIGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN TO 575 DAM AS IT IS
ABSORBED INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC THURSDAY. THE
558 DAM CLOSED LOW THAT IS UNDERCUTTING THE HIGH WILL MOVE
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA
INTERIOR. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 521 DAM LOW OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA THIS
MORNING THEN NORTH TO THE BROOKS RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER...STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLAND
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE INTERIOR.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO LIE FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND BY THURSDAY MORNING CONTINUING NORTHEAST TO LIE
FROM POINT HOPE TO GLENNALLEN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND FROM
POINT LAY TO NORTHWAY BY THURSDAY EVENING...THEN FROM BARROW TO
OLD CROW BY FRIDAY MORNING.

SURFACE...THE THERMAL TROUGH LIES FROM KOTZEBUE TO JUST NORTH OF
FAIRBANKS TO NORTHWAY AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND PULL BACK
INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY TODAY AS A WEATHER FRONT MOVES UP THE
WEST COAST. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL LIE FROM AMBLER TO FT YUKON
AND EAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BE CONFINED TO THE UPPER
YUKON FLATS AND EASTERN FORTYMILE COUNTRY THURSDAY. IT WILL REFORM
OVER THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY SATURDAY. A 1029 MB HIGH 200 NM
NORTHWEST OF BARROW WILL MOVE TO 200 NM NORTH OF BARROW BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. A 990
MB LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS A
976 MB LOW MOVES FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC TO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY...THEN INTO THE WEST CENTRAL BERING
SEA BY THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWEST UNTIL IT IS
ABSORBED BY A 987 MB LOW IN THE SEA OF OKHOTSK ON SATURDAY. A 1034
MB HIGH IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY
THROUGH SATURDAY. A DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY
NORTH UP THE WEST COAST TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE LOWER YUKON
DELTA...NORTON SOUND...AND THE BERING STRAIT THIS
MORNING...SPREADING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE THE SEWARD
PENINSULA AND PARTS OF KOTZEBUE SOUND AND THE UPPER NOATAK AND
KOBUK BASINS.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WITH THE HIGH CENTER JUST NORTH OF
BARROW EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW FROM BARROW EAST AND OFFSHORE FLOW TO
THE WEST OF BARROW. IN EITHER CASE THE STRATUS WILL NOT BE MOVING
VERY FAR OR GOING AWAY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING SO WILL
HEADLINE ZONES 202...203 AND 204. CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS
MORNING...THEN PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT LOOKING
FOR ANY ACCUMULATION. VISIBILITY IMPROVING TO ABOVE 1 MILE FOR
MOST AREAS AFTER 9 AM. WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN PICKING UP A BIT AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST SPREADING
EAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION COULD BE HEAVY IN SOME
AREAS AS MODELS ARE INDICATING OVER AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN
THE BROOKS RANGE AND CENTRAL ARCTIC PLAIN.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT
SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS NORTH ALONG THE COAST FROM THE LOWER YUKON
DELTA TO NORTON SOUND TO THE BERING STRAIT THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
WORK INLAND A BIT THROUGH THE DAY BUT REMAIN MOSTLY WEST OF THE
MIDDLE YUKON RIVER VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS. SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
UPPER NOATAK AND KOBUK VALLEYS LATER TODAY MAY DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS AS MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE AREA.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT GET PICKED UP BY THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY AND WILL
SPREAD SOME HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF RAIN INTO THE NOATAK...KOBUK AND
KOYUKUK BASINS THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY MORNING...THIS BEARS
WATCHING AS MODELS ARE MAKING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
OF OVER AN INCH IN SOME OF THOSE AREAS. NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAINLY OFFSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST AND
LIGHT WINDS INLAND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS MOISTURE
OUT OF THE GULF INTO THE INTERIOR. SOME SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH. THE ONLY AREA FOR
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE BORDER IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE AREA WILL
SQUASH ANY CONVECTION. SOME CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. WINDS
WESTERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH FOR MOST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOME DRYING TODAY BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 25 PERCENT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
SO NO NEED FOR RED FLAGS TODAY...HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WINDS MAY BE GUSTY INTO
THE THERMAL TROUGH TO 25 MPH REQUIRING RED FLAGS. WILL NEED TO
TAKE A GOOD LOOK AT GUIDANCE FOR ZONES 218...219...220...221...223
AND 224. FUELS REMAIN VERY DRY...BUT GREENUP CONTINUES AND IT
LOOKS LIKE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE STARTING TO REACT TO THE
GREENER CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...MODELS ARE TRYING TO MAKE QUITE A BIT OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE AND CENTRAL ARCTIC
PLAIN STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH ALREADY SATURATED
CONDITIONS IN THE ARCTIC PLAIN AND RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH
THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC. WILL NEED TO KEEP A KEEN EYE ON THE
NEXT COUPLE MODEL RUNS FOR THAT AREA. WILL HAVE THE NEXT SHIFT
CHECK WITH THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER TO SEE HOW THEIR MODELS RUNS
ARE HANDLING THE QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE AREA AND WHAT IF ANY
REACTION THE RIVERS WILL HAVE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

$$

SDB MAY 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 271205
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
405 AM AKDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE MODELS HAVE HAD
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. WILL NUDGE THE
CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST TO A BLEND OF THE LATEST MODELS BUT
EXPECT THAT WILL NOT CHANGE ANYTHING VERY MUCH. PER NORMAL GFS
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE SO WILL BLEND WITH THE
NAM TO PARE IT BACK A BIT. WILL USE A BLEND OF MODELS TO COME UP
WITH QPF VALUES FOR THE BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC PLAIN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 570 DAM HIGH WITH A CLOSED CENTER HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY AND WILL DROP SOUTH
OVER THE UPPER YUKON AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SOME STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE HIGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN TO 575 DAM AS IT IS
ABSORBED INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC THURSDAY. THE
558 DAM CLOSED LOW THAT IS UNDERCUTTING THE HIGH WILL MOVE
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA
INTERIOR. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 521 DAM LOW OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA THIS
MORNING THEN NORTH TO THE BROOKS RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER...STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLAND
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE INTERIOR.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO LIE FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND BY THURSDAY MORNING CONTINUING NORTHEAST TO LIE
FROM POINT HOPE TO GLENNALLEN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND FROM
POINT LAY TO NORTHWAY BY THURSDAY EVENING...THEN FROM BARROW TO
OLD CROW BY FRIDAY MORNING.

SURFACE...THE THERMAL TROUGH LIES FROM KOTZEBUE TO JUST NORTH OF
FAIRBANKS TO NORTHWAY AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND PULL BACK
INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY TODAY AS A WEATHER FRONT MOVES UP THE
WEST COAST. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL LIE FROM AMBLER TO FT YUKON
AND EAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BE CONFINED TO THE UPPER
YUKON FLATS AND EASTERN FORTYMILE COUNTRY THURSDAY. IT WILL REFORM
OVER THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY SATURDAY. A 1029 MB HIGH 200 NM
NORTHWEST OF BARROW WILL MOVE TO 200 NM NORTH OF BARROW BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. A 990
MB LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS A
976 MB LOW MOVES FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC TO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY...THEN INTO THE WEST CENTRAL BERING
SEA BY THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWEST UNTIL IT IS
ABSORBED BY A 987 MB LOW IN THE SEA OF OKHOTSK ON SATURDAY. A 1034
MB HIGH IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY
THROUGH SATURDAY. A DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY
NORTH UP THE WEST COAST TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE LOWER YUKON
DELTA...NORTON SOUND...AND THE BERING STRAIT THIS
MORNING...SPREADING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE THE SEWARD
PENINSULA AND PARTS OF KOTZEBUE SOUND AND THE UPPER NOATAK AND
KOBUK BASINS.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WITH THE HIGH CENTER JUST NORTH OF
BARROW EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW FROM BARROW EAST AND OFFSHORE FLOW TO
THE WEST OF BARROW. IN EITHER CASE THE STRATUS WILL NOT BE MOVING
VERY FAR OR GOING AWAY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING SO WILL
HEADLINE ZONES 202...203 AND 204. CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS
MORNING...THEN PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT LOOKING
FOR ANY ACCUMULATION. VISIBILITY IMPROVING TO ABOVE 1 MILE FOR
MOST AREAS AFTER 9 AM. WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN PICKING UP A BIT AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST SPREADING
EAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION COULD BE HEAVY IN SOME
AREAS AS MODELS ARE INDICATING OVER AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN
THE BROOKS RANGE AND CENTRAL ARCTIC PLAIN.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT
SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS NORTH ALONG THE COAST FROM THE LOWER YUKON
DELTA TO NORTON SOUND TO THE BERING STRAIT THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
WORK INLAND A BIT THROUGH THE DAY BUT REMAIN MOSTLY WEST OF THE
MIDDLE YUKON RIVER VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS. SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
UPPER NOATAK AND KOBUK VALLEYS LATER TODAY MAY DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS AS MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE AREA.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT GET PICKED UP BY THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY AND WILL
SPREAD SOME HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF RAIN INTO THE NOATAK...KOBUK AND
KOYUKUK BASINS THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY MORNING...THIS BEARS
WATCHING AS MODELS ARE MAKING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
OF OVER AN INCH IN SOME OF THOSE AREAS. NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAINLY OFFSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST AND
LIGHT WINDS INLAND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS MOISTURE
OUT OF THE GULF INTO THE INTERIOR. SOME SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH. THE ONLY AREA FOR
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE BORDER IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE AREA WILL
SQUASH ANY CONVECTION. SOME CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. WINDS
WESTERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH FOR MOST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOME DRYING TODAY BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 25 PERCENT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
SO NO NEED FOR RED FLAGS TODAY...HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WINDS MAY BE GUSTY INTO
THE THERMAL TROUGH TO 25 MPH REQUIRING RED FLAGS. WILL NEED TO
TAKE A GOOD LOOK AT GUIDANCE FOR ZONES 218...219...220...221...223
AND 224. FUELS REMAIN VERY DRY...BUT GREENUP CONTINUES AND IT
LOOKS LIKE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE STARTING TO REACT TO THE
GREENER CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...MODELS ARE TRYING TO MAKE QUITE A BIT OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE AND CENTRAL ARCTIC
PLAIN STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH ALREADY SATURATED
CONDITIONS IN THE ARCTIC PLAIN AND RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH
THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC. WILL NEED TO KEEP A KEEN EYE ON THE
NEXT COUPLE MODEL RUNS FOR THAT AREA. WILL HAVE THE NEXT SHIFT
CHECK WITH THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER TO SEE HOW THEIR MODELS RUNS
ARE HANDLING THE QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE AREA AND WHAT IF ANY
REACTION THE RIVERS WILL HAVE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

$$

SDB MAY 15




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities