Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXAK69 PAFG 221011
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
211 AM AKDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...VERY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FOR THE SHORT TERM. ECMWF
AND GFS ARE NOT SHOWING THE SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE THAT THEY HAD
YESTERDAY TOWARD THE END OF THE MID RANGE. LATEST RUN INITIALIZED
WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...512 DAM LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY YESTERDAY WILL BE
ABSORBED BY A 516 DAM LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS
MORNING...THEN MOVE SOUTH. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
INTERIOR WILL MOVE EAST AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE DATELINE
THIS MORNING MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST LATER THIS EVENING...THEN
OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR LATE THURSDAY EVENING...AND INTO CANADA
LATE FRIDAY EVENING. A WEAK TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM A LOW IN THE
HIGH CANADIAN ARCTIC SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEAR SHORE ARCTIC WATERS
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY WITH A 529 AM LOW DEVELOPING NORTH OF
BARROW BY THURSDAY MORNING. A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A LOW
NORTH OF THE SEA OF OKHOTSKS WILL MOVE TO THE DATELINE BY THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TO THE WEST COAST BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS IT
WEAKENS. A RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE
LOW IN SIBERIA AND EXTEND FROM EASTERN CHINA INTO THE CENTRAL
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1038 MB HIGH NEAR 79N 192W WILL WOBBLE AROUND A
LITTLE BIT AS IT WEAKENS TO 1033MB THEN MOVES WAST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS NORTH OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA FROM 976MB LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL SLOWLY BE
PUSHED SOUTHEAST AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
WEST COAST THIS EVENING AND INTO THE INTERIOR BY LATE THURSDAY
EVENING AS IT LIES SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MAINLAND. A
1006 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND
DISSIPATING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA FROM A 994MB LOW IN SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO THE DATELINE
BY EARLY THURSDAY...THEN EXTEND FROM THE LOW IN SIBERIA OVER THE
CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TO ST MATTHEW ISLAND THEN SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY
MORNING AND MOVES TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING AS IT
FALLS APART.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...STRONG WINDS CONTINUE...BUT THEY
WILL BE DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WINTERY
MIX OF WEATHER OF THE PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER
DAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND
AND FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE WITH TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE PLAINS AND COAST. UNTIL THEN FLURRIES...BLOWING
SNOW...OCCASIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND AREAS OF FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE ISSUES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE
COASTAL AREAS WITH SLIGHT COOLING IN THE INLAND AREAS AND BROOKS
RANGE.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...PRETTY QUIET TODAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND TO
THE WESTERN INTERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT 1
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM. THE LOWER YUKON DELTA MAY SEE
THE SNOW MIX OR TURN TO RAIN DURING THE MID DAY HOURS. WINDS NORTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LATER
TODAY...THEN WEST AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. SOME SLIGHT WARMING
SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...THEN TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY AND REMAIN
STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SOME CLEARING TODAY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH UP OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AND
SPREAD SOME FLURRIES OVER THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
MOVING INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY. WINDS NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH
BECOMING LIGHT. CLEARING TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE AREA. DISSIPATING FRONT TRIES TO MAKE IT INTO THE INTERIOR
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL HAVE LOST MOST OF ITS ENERGY BY
THEN SO LOOKING LIKE NOTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW WITH THE
FIRST WAVE. TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWN AND WITH THE CLEARING SKIES
THEY SHOULD BOTTOM OUT WITH LOWS THURSDAY NEARING THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND ON FRIDAY LOWS NEAR ZERO FOR MANY AREAS.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB OCT 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 221011
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
211 AM AKDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...VERY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FOR THE SHORT TERM. ECMWF
AND GFS ARE NOT SHOWING THE SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE THAT THEY HAD
YESTERDAY TOWARD THE END OF THE MID RANGE. LATEST RUN INITIALIZED
WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...512 DAM LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY YESTERDAY WILL BE
ABSORBED BY A 516 DAM LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS
MORNING...THEN MOVE SOUTH. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
INTERIOR WILL MOVE EAST AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE DATELINE
THIS MORNING MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST LATER THIS EVENING...THEN
OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR LATE THURSDAY EVENING...AND INTO CANADA
LATE FRIDAY EVENING. A WEAK TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM A LOW IN THE
HIGH CANADIAN ARCTIC SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEAR SHORE ARCTIC WATERS
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY WITH A 529 AM LOW DEVELOPING NORTH OF
BARROW BY THURSDAY MORNING. A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A LOW
NORTH OF THE SEA OF OKHOTSKS WILL MOVE TO THE DATELINE BY THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TO THE WEST COAST BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS IT
WEAKENS. A RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE
LOW IN SIBERIA AND EXTEND FROM EASTERN CHINA INTO THE CENTRAL
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1038 MB HIGH NEAR 79N 192W WILL WOBBLE AROUND A
LITTLE BIT AS IT WEAKENS TO 1033MB THEN MOVES WAST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS NORTH OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA FROM 976MB LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL SLOWLY BE
PUSHED SOUTHEAST AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
WEST COAST THIS EVENING AND INTO THE INTERIOR BY LATE THURSDAY
EVENING AS IT LIES SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MAINLAND. A
1006 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND
DISSIPATING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA FROM A 994MB LOW IN SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO THE DATELINE
BY EARLY THURSDAY...THEN EXTEND FROM THE LOW IN SIBERIA OVER THE
CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TO ST MATTHEW ISLAND THEN SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY
MORNING AND MOVES TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING AS IT
FALLS APART.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...STRONG WINDS CONTINUE...BUT THEY
WILL BE DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WINTERY
MIX OF WEATHER OF THE PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER
DAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND
AND FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE WITH TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE PLAINS AND COAST. UNTIL THEN FLURRIES...BLOWING
SNOW...OCCASIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND AREAS OF FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE ISSUES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE
COASTAL AREAS WITH SLIGHT COOLING IN THE INLAND AREAS AND BROOKS
RANGE.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...PRETTY QUIET TODAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND TO
THE WESTERN INTERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT 1
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM. THE LOWER YUKON DELTA MAY SEE
THE SNOW MIX OR TURN TO RAIN DURING THE MID DAY HOURS. WINDS NORTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LATER
TODAY...THEN WEST AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. SOME SLIGHT WARMING
SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...THEN TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY AND REMAIN
STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SOME CLEARING TODAY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH UP OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AND
SPREAD SOME FLURRIES OVER THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
MOVING INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY. WINDS NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH
BECOMING LIGHT. CLEARING TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE AREA. DISSIPATING FRONT TRIES TO MAKE IT INTO THE INTERIOR
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL HAVE LOST MOST OF ITS ENERGY BY
THEN SO LOOKING LIKE NOTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW WITH THE
FIRST WAVE. TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWN AND WITH THE CLEARING SKIES
THEY SHOULD BOTTOM OUT WITH LOWS THURSDAY NEARING THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND ON FRIDAY LOWS NEAR ZERO FOR MANY AREAS.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB OCT 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 221011 CCA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
211 AM AKDT WED OCT 22 2014

CORRECTED SPELLING

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...VERY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FOR THE SHORT TERM. ECMWF
AND GFS ARE NOT SHOWING THE SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE THAT THEY HAD
YESTERDAY TOWARD THE END OF THE MID RANGE. LATEST RUN INITIALIZED
WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...512 DAM LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY YESTERDAY WILL BE
ABSORBED BY A 516 DAM LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS
MORNING...THEN MOVE SOUTH. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
INTERIOR WILL MOVE EAST AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE DATELINE
THIS MORNING MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST LATER THIS EVENING...THEN
OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR LATE THURSDAY EVENING...AND INTO CANADA
LATE FRIDAY EVENING. A WEAK TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM A LOW IN THE
HIGH CANADIAN ARCTIC SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEAR SHORE ARCTIC WATERS
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY WITH A 529 AM LOW DEVELOPING NORTH OF
BARROW BY THURSDAY MORNING. A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A LOW
NORTH OF THE SEA OF OKHOTSKS WILL MOVE TO THE DATELINE BY THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TO THE WEST COAST BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS IT
WEAKENS. A RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE
LOW IN SIBERIA AND EXTEND FROM EASTERN CHINA INTO THE CENTRAL
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1038 MB HIGH NEAR 79N 192W WILL WOBBLE AROUND A
LITTLE BIT AS IT WEAKENS TO 1033MB THEN MOVES WEST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS NORTH OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA FROM 976MB LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL SLOWLY BE
PUSHED SOUTHEAST AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
WEST COAST THIS EVENING AND INTO THE INTERIOR BY LATE THURSDAY
EVENING AS IT LIES SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MAINLAND. A
1006 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND
DISSIPATING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA FROM A 994MB LOW IN SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO THE DATELINE
BY EARLY THURSDAY...THEN EXTEND FROM THE LOW IN SIBERIA OVER THE
CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TO ST MATTHEW ISLAND THEN SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY
MORNING AND MOVES TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING AS IT
FALLS APART.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...STRONG WINDS CONTINUE...BUT THEY
WILL BE DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WINTERY
MIX OF WEATHER OF THE PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER
DAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND
AND FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE WITH TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE PLAINS AND COAST. UNTIL THEN FLURRIES...BLOWING
SNOW...OCCASIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND AREAS OF FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE ISSUES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE
COASTAL AREAS WITH SLIGHT COOLING IN THE INLAND AREAS AND BROOKS
RANGE.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...PRETTY QUIET TODAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND TO
THE WESTERN INTERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT 1
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM. THE LOWER YUKON DELTA MAY SEE
THE SNOW MIX OR TURN TO RAIN DURING THE MID DAY HOURS. WINDS NORTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LATER
TODAY...THEN WEST AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. SOME SLIGHT WARMING
SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...THEN TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY AND REMAIN
STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SOME CLEARING TODAY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH UP OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AND
SPREAD SOME FLURRIES OVER THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
MOVING INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY. WINDS NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH
BECOMING LIGHT. CLEARING TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE AREA. DISSIPATING FRONT TRIES TO MAKE IT INTO THE INTERIOR
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL HAVE LOST MOST OF ITS ENERGY BY
THEN SO LOOKING LIKE NOTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW WITH THE
FIRST WAVE. TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWN AND WITH THE CLEARING SKIES
THEY SHOULD BOTTOM OUT WITH LOWS THURSDAY NEARING THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND ON FRIDAY LOWS NEAR ZERO FOR MANY AREAS.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB OCT 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 211834
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1034 AM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL IN THE SHORT
TERM AND MID TERM. MODEL SPREAD IS CONSIDERABLE IN THE LONG RANGE
WITH RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS EXHIBITING LARGE
DIFFERENCES FROM DIFFERENT MODEL FAMILIES.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...A 512 DAM LOW CENTERED OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAK AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WHERE
IT WILL ABSORB A 516 DAM LOW JUST OFF THE COAST FROM SITKA. THE
LOW WILL BE CENTERED NEAR 52N AND 145W WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE
LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AS A 500 DAM LOW OVER SIBERIA MOVES EAST INTO
THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA BEFORE STALLING OVER THE BERING STRAIT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1041 MB HIGH REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 80N
AND 175W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND A 970 MB LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO CREATE STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE COAST ON THE NORTH SLOPE. STRONG WIND HEADLINES REMAIN
IN THESE AREAS AS WIND GUSTS STILL REACHING INTO THE 40S AND NEAR
50 MPH...HOWEVER THE GRADIENT IS WEAKENING OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
SLOPE. THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN
PLACE AS A 980 MB LOW WEAKENS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN SIBERIA. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO THE BERING STRAIT LATE THURSDAY AND WESTERN ALASKA ON FRIDAY.
THE FRONT WEAKENS RAPIDLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR AND AS IT OUTRUNS ITS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A
THURSDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
WESTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY IN THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLOWLY OVER THE
NORTH SLOPE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
LIKELY PICK UP AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
UP AS THE FRONT MOVING EAST OUT OF SIBERIA MOVES INTO THE WEST
COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR. EXPECT OCCASIONAL FLURRIES OVER THE
INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY AS WEAK WAVES PASS THROUGH. LOW CEILINGS
AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ON THE NORTH SLOPE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ235.
&&

$$

CCC OCT 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 211059
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
259 AM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST 06Z SURFACE. CONTINUE TO HANDLE
FEATURES WELL IN THE SHORT TERM WITH MODELS STARTING TO DIVERGE
BEYOND DAY 5. WILL NUDGE CURRENT FORECAST TO A BLEND OF THE
LATEST MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM.

ALOFT...AT 500 MB...512 DAM LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA THIS MORNING AND WILL COMBINE WITH A 516 DAM LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
MOVE SOUTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS AND DRIFTS INTO CANADA. AS THE LOW
DRIFTS INTO THE GULF WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST OVER
THE INTERIOR BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
BERING SEA WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND OVER THE WEST COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A 535
DAM HIGH OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN HIGH IN THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL BACK OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WITH A 527 DAM
LOW DEVELOPING OVER BARROW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A 496 DAM LOW
OVER WESTERN SIBERIA WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY
THEN DRIFT OVER THE SEA OF OKHOTSK BY SUNDAY MORNING. A 510 DAM
LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE GULF OF ANADYR BY THURSDAY
MORNING AND REMAIN STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR COOL 4
TO 6 DEGREES CELSIUS NEXT 48 HOURS. TEMPERATURES OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS REMAIN STEADY INTO THURSDAY...THEN A SLIGHT WARM UP OVER THE
SOUTHWEST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.

SURFACE...A 1040MB HIGH IN THE HIGH ARCTIC REMAINS QUASI
STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT WEAKENS TO 1033MB...THEN MOVES
WEST LATE FRIDAY. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE PATTERN OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WITH A TROUGH LYING OVER THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA
RANGE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO FALL APART WITH THE TROUGH
FILLING BY LATE MORNING AND THE LOW BEING ABSORBED BY A 973MB
LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL SPIN
BACK UP OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN MOVE SOUTH. AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR
EARLY THURSDAY...REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
1000MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY
EVENING THEN DEEPEN TO 998MB OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SATURDAY
MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE
HIGH ARCTIC TO A 1021MB HIGH OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND THEN SOUTH
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE WEST COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...AND TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING. A 996MB
LOW IN KAMCHATKA BAY WILL MOVE EAST TO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
ANADYR BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT 986MB. A WEATHER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
THURSDAY MORNING AND TO THE WEST COAST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WEAKENING AS IT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE MIDDLE YUKON
VALLEY AND DISSIPATING.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...STRONG EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THURSDAY...BUT UNTIL THEN SOME SHORT
PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. NO BREAK IN THE LOW
CLOUDS...FLURRIES...SNOW SHOWERS...OCCASIONAL FREEZING
DRIZZLE...PATCHY FOG...LOCAL BLOWING SNOW...LOW STRATUS CEILINGS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PRETTY STEADY. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR
ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. CLOUD TOP PHASE FROM GOES AT
210815Z INDICATES MOST AREAS EAST OF BARROW HAVE ONLY ICE...THIS
INDICATES TO ME LESS CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THAT AREA
RIGHT NOW.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...AS LOW MOVES SOUTH AND RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE AREA FLOW FALLS APART AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. TODAY EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE
BERING STRAIT OF 20 TO 30 MPH. INLAND WINDS NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER THE HILLS TO 25 MPH. FLURRIES AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA WILL END LATE
THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL UP TO AN INCH LOCALLY. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT JUST A FEW FLURRIES AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES OVER THE COAST STEADY WITH INLAND
AREAS SEEING TEMPERATURES FALL A COUPLE DEGREES THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SHORTWAVE ALOFT SPINNING UP OVER
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND KICK OFF
SOME FLURRIES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. COULD SEE A LITTLE
ENHANCEMENT OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY THAT
MAY PRODUCE SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL...BUT STILL EXPECT IT TO BE
LESS THAN AN INCH. STILL MAINTAINING A FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY THAT WILL NOT FALL APART UNTIL WEDNESDAY
SO EXPECT SOME GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ON
SUMMITS...MAINLY NORTH OF FAIRBANKS. A SLOW COOL DOWN THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...FRONT APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST THURSDAY THEN WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
THIS MAY PUSH WATER INTO NORTON SOUND FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ235.

&&

$$

SDB OCT 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 211059
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
259 AM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST 06Z SURFACE. CONTINUE TO HANDLE
FEATURES WELL IN THE SHORT TERM WITH MODELS STARTING TO DIVERGE
BEYOND DAY 5. WILL NUDGE CURRENT FORECAST TO A BLEND OF THE
LATEST MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM.

ALOFT...AT 500 MB...512 DAM LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA THIS MORNING AND WILL COMBINE WITH A 516 DAM LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
MOVE SOUTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS AND DRIFTS INTO CANADA. AS THE LOW
DRIFTS INTO THE GULF WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST OVER
THE INTERIOR BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
BERING SEA WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND OVER THE WEST COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A 535
DAM HIGH OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN HIGH IN THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL BACK OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WITH A 527 DAM
LOW DEVELOPING OVER BARROW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A 496 DAM LOW
OVER WESTERN SIBERIA WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY
THEN DRIFT OVER THE SEA OF OKHOTSK BY SUNDAY MORNING. A 510 DAM
LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE GULF OF ANADYR BY THURSDAY
MORNING AND REMAIN STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR COOL 4
TO 6 DEGREES CELSIUS NEXT 48 HOURS. TEMPERATURES OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS REMAIN STEADY INTO THURSDAY...THEN A SLIGHT WARM UP OVER THE
SOUTHWEST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.

SURFACE...A 1040MB HIGH IN THE HIGH ARCTIC REMAINS QUASI
STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT WEAKENS TO 1033MB...THEN MOVES
WEST LATE FRIDAY. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE PATTERN OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WITH A TROUGH LYING OVER THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA
RANGE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO FALL APART WITH THE TROUGH
FILLING BY LATE MORNING AND THE LOW BEING ABSORBED BY A 973MB
LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL SPIN
BACK UP OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN MOVE SOUTH. AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR
EARLY THURSDAY...REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
1000MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY
EVENING THEN DEEPEN TO 998MB OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SATURDAY
MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE
HIGH ARCTIC TO A 1021MB HIGH OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND THEN SOUTH
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE WEST COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...AND TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING. A 996MB
LOW IN KAMCHATKA BAY WILL MOVE EAST TO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
ANADYR BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT 986MB. A WEATHER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
THURSDAY MORNING AND TO THE WEST COAST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WEAKENING AS IT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE MIDDLE YUKON
VALLEY AND DISSIPATING.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...STRONG EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THURSDAY...BUT UNTIL THEN SOME SHORT
PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. NO BREAK IN THE LOW
CLOUDS...FLURRIES...SNOW SHOWERS...OCCASIONAL FREEZING
DRIZZLE...PATCHY FOG...LOCAL BLOWING SNOW...LOW STRATUS CEILINGS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PRETTY STEADY. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR
ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. CLOUD TOP PHASE FROM GOES AT
210815Z INDICATES MOST AREAS EAST OF BARROW HAVE ONLY ICE...THIS
INDICATES TO ME LESS CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THAT AREA
RIGHT NOW.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...AS LOW MOVES SOUTH AND RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE AREA FLOW FALLS APART AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. TODAY EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE
BERING STRAIT OF 20 TO 30 MPH. INLAND WINDS NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER THE HILLS TO 25 MPH. FLURRIES AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA WILL END LATE
THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL UP TO AN INCH LOCALLY. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT JUST A FEW FLURRIES AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES OVER THE COAST STEADY WITH INLAND
AREAS SEEING TEMPERATURES FALL A COUPLE DEGREES THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SHORTWAVE ALOFT SPINNING UP OVER
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND KICK OFF
SOME FLURRIES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. COULD SEE A LITTLE
ENHANCEMENT OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY THAT
MAY PRODUCE SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL...BUT STILL EXPECT IT TO BE
LESS THAN AN INCH. STILL MAINTAINING A FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY THAT WILL NOT FALL APART UNTIL WEDNESDAY
SO EXPECT SOME GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ON
SUMMITS...MAINLY NORTH OF FAIRBANKS. A SLOW COOL DOWN THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...FRONT APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST THURSDAY THEN WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
THIS MAY PUSH WATER INTO NORTON SOUND FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ235.

&&

$$

SDB OCT 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 211059
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
259 AM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST 06Z SURFACE. CONTINUE TO HANDLE
FEATURES WELL IN THE SHORT TERM WITH MODELS STARTING TO DIVERGE
BEYOND DAY 5. WILL NUDGE CURRENT FORECAST TO A BLEND OF THE
LATEST MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM.

ALOFT...AT 500 MB...512 DAM LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA THIS MORNING AND WILL COMBINE WITH A 516 DAM LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
MOVE SOUTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS AND DRIFTS INTO CANADA. AS THE LOW
DRIFTS INTO THE GULF WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST OVER
THE INTERIOR BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
BERING SEA WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND OVER THE WEST COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A 535
DAM HIGH OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN HIGH IN THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL BACK OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WITH A 527 DAM
LOW DEVELOPING OVER BARROW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A 496 DAM LOW
OVER WESTERN SIBERIA WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY
THEN DRIFT OVER THE SEA OF OKHOTSK BY SUNDAY MORNING. A 510 DAM
LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE GULF OF ANADYR BY THURSDAY
MORNING AND REMAIN STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR COOL 4
TO 6 DEGREES CELSIUS NEXT 48 HOURS. TEMPERATURES OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS REMAIN STEADY INTO THURSDAY...THEN A SLIGHT WARM UP OVER THE
SOUTHWEST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.

SURFACE...A 1040MB HIGH IN THE HIGH ARCTIC REMAINS QUASI
STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT WEAKENS TO 1033MB...THEN MOVES
WEST LATE FRIDAY. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE PATTERN OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WITH A TROUGH LYING OVER THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA
RANGE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO FALL APART WITH THE TROUGH
FILLING BY LATE MORNING AND THE LOW BEING ABSORBED BY A 973MB
LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL SPIN
BACK UP OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN MOVE SOUTH. AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR
EARLY THURSDAY...REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
1000MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY
EVENING THEN DEEPEN TO 998MB OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SATURDAY
MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE
HIGH ARCTIC TO A 1021MB HIGH OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND THEN SOUTH
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE WEST COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...AND TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING. A 996MB
LOW IN KAMCHATKA BAY WILL MOVE EAST TO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
ANADYR BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT 986MB. A WEATHER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
THURSDAY MORNING AND TO THE WEST COAST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WEAKENING AS IT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE MIDDLE YUKON
VALLEY AND DISSIPATING.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...STRONG EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THURSDAY...BUT UNTIL THEN SOME SHORT
PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. NO BREAK IN THE LOW
CLOUDS...FLURRIES...SNOW SHOWERS...OCCASIONAL FREEZING
DRIZZLE...PATCHY FOG...LOCAL BLOWING SNOW...LOW STRATUS CEILINGS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PRETTY STEADY. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR
ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. CLOUD TOP PHASE FROM GOES AT
210815Z INDICATES MOST AREAS EAST OF BARROW HAVE ONLY ICE...THIS
INDICATES TO ME LESS CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THAT AREA
RIGHT NOW.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...AS LOW MOVES SOUTH AND RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE AREA FLOW FALLS APART AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. TODAY EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE
BERING STRAIT OF 20 TO 30 MPH. INLAND WINDS NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER THE HILLS TO 25 MPH. FLURRIES AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA WILL END LATE
THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL UP TO AN INCH LOCALLY. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT JUST A FEW FLURRIES AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES OVER THE COAST STEADY WITH INLAND
AREAS SEEING TEMPERATURES FALL A COUPLE DEGREES THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SHORTWAVE ALOFT SPINNING UP OVER
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND KICK OFF
SOME FLURRIES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. COULD SEE A LITTLE
ENHANCEMENT OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY THAT
MAY PRODUCE SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL...BUT STILL EXPECT IT TO BE
LESS THAN AN INCH. STILL MAINTAINING A FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY THAT WILL NOT FALL APART UNTIL WEDNESDAY
SO EXPECT SOME GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ON
SUMMITS...MAINLY NORTH OF FAIRBANKS. A SLOW COOL DOWN THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...FRONT APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST THURSDAY THEN WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
THIS MAY PUSH WATER INTO NORTON SOUND FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ235.

&&

$$

SDB OCT 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 202141
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
141 PM AKDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL WITH MINIMAL
SPREAD FROM RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN MODEL FAMILIES IN THE SHORT
TERM AND INTO THE MID TERM. BY THE WEEKEND CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN
FEATURE LOCATION AND STRENGTH PLAGUE THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA A 508 DAM LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER BRISTOL
BAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A VERY SHARP RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA. THE LOW WEAKENS TO AROUND 520 DAM AS IT
CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE SHARP RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA IS FLATTENED OUT AND
PUSHED INTO BRISTOL BAY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A 504 DAM LOW
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND MOVES TO THE EAST AS
A SECONDARY LOW CENTER REACHES THE BERING STRAITS BY THURSDAY
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE
BROOKS RANGE AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW OVER WEST COAST AND
THE WESTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
SATURDAY.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1040 MB HIGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE HIGH
ARCTIC AS A 980 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA MOVES SLOWLY TO
THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS
CREATING VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST ON THE NORTH SLOPE WITH
HIGH WIND WARNING HOISTED FOR ZONES 202...203 AND ZONE 204. WIND
GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW WARNING LEVELS LATE THIS EVENING.
FREEZING DRIZZLE...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WIDESPREAD IN THE COASTAL
ZONES ON THE NORTH SLOPE AND VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
IN BLOWING SNOW NOTED IN THE PLAINS IN ZONES 205 AND 206.

IN THE INTERIOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS ON THE SUMMITS ARE GUSTY BUT
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A FEW AREAS OF ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION...MORE THAN FLURRIES. NO REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN
HAVE BEEN NOTED AT REPORTING STATIONS...HOWEVER REPORTS OF
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN WERE RECEIVED ALONG THE DALTON HIGHWAY
IN WESTERN ZONE 220 WHERE TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE REPORTED AS
EXTREMELY SLICK. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN WAS
ISSUED THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THIS AREA.

ALONG THE WEST COAST...BRISK OFF SHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AND THOUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH STRONG WIND HEADLINES
FOR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ220.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

$$

CCC OCT 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 202141
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
141 PM AKDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL WITH MINIMAL
SPREAD FROM RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN MODEL FAMILIES IN THE SHORT
TERM AND INTO THE MID TERM. BY THE WEEKEND CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN
FEATURE LOCATION AND STRENGTH PLAGUE THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA A 508 DAM LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER BRISTOL
BAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A VERY SHARP RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA. THE LOW WEAKENS TO AROUND 520 DAM AS IT
CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE SHARP RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA IS FLATTENED OUT AND
PUSHED INTO BRISTOL BAY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A 504 DAM LOW
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND MOVES TO THE EAST AS
A SECONDARY LOW CENTER REACHES THE BERING STRAITS BY THURSDAY
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE
BROOKS RANGE AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW OVER WEST COAST AND
THE WESTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
SATURDAY.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1040 MB HIGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE HIGH
ARCTIC AS A 980 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA MOVES SLOWLY TO
THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS
CREATING VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST ON THE NORTH SLOPE WITH
HIGH WIND WARNING HOISTED FOR ZONES 202...203 AND ZONE 204. WIND
GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW WARNING LEVELS LATE THIS EVENING.
FREEZING DRIZZLE...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WIDESPREAD IN THE COASTAL
ZONES ON THE NORTH SLOPE AND VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
IN BLOWING SNOW NOTED IN THE PLAINS IN ZONES 205 AND 206.

IN THE INTERIOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS ON THE SUMMITS ARE GUSTY BUT
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A FEW AREAS OF ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION...MORE THAN FLURRIES. NO REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN
HAVE BEEN NOTED AT REPORTING STATIONS...HOWEVER REPORTS OF
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN WERE RECEIVED ALONG THE DALTON HIGHWAY
IN WESTERN ZONE 220 WHERE TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE REPORTED AS
EXTREMELY SLICK. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN WAS
ISSUED THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THIS AREA.

ALONG THE WEST COAST...BRISK OFF SHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AND THOUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH STRONG WIND HEADLINES
FOR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ220.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

$$

CCC OCT 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 202141
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
141 PM AKDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL WITH MINIMAL
SPREAD FROM RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN MODEL FAMILIES IN THE SHORT
TERM AND INTO THE MID TERM. BY THE WEEKEND CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN
FEATURE LOCATION AND STRENGTH PLAGUE THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA A 508 DAM LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER BRISTOL
BAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A VERY SHARP RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA. THE LOW WEAKENS TO AROUND 520 DAM AS IT
CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE SHARP RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA IS FLATTENED OUT AND
PUSHED INTO BRISTOL BAY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A 504 DAM LOW
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND MOVES TO THE EAST AS
A SECONDARY LOW CENTER REACHES THE BERING STRAITS BY THURSDAY
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE
BROOKS RANGE AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW OVER WEST COAST AND
THE WESTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
SATURDAY.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1040 MB HIGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE HIGH
ARCTIC AS A 980 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA MOVES SLOWLY TO
THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS
CREATING VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST ON THE NORTH SLOPE WITH
HIGH WIND WARNING HOISTED FOR ZONES 202...203 AND ZONE 204. WIND
GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW WARNING LEVELS LATE THIS EVENING.
FREEZING DRIZZLE...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WIDESPREAD IN THE COASTAL
ZONES ON THE NORTH SLOPE AND VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
IN BLOWING SNOW NOTED IN THE PLAINS IN ZONES 205 AND 206.

IN THE INTERIOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS ON THE SUMMITS ARE GUSTY BUT
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A FEW AREAS OF ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION...MORE THAN FLURRIES. NO REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN
HAVE BEEN NOTED AT REPORTING STATIONS...HOWEVER REPORTS OF
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN WERE RECEIVED ALONG THE DALTON HIGHWAY
IN WESTERN ZONE 220 WHERE TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE REPORTED AS
EXTREMELY SLICK. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN WAS
ISSUED THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THIS AREA.

ALONG THE WEST COAST...BRISK OFF SHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AND THOUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH STRONG WIND HEADLINES
FOR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ220.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

$$

CCC OCT 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 202141
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
141 PM AKDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL WITH MINIMAL
SPREAD FROM RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN MODEL FAMILIES IN THE SHORT
TERM AND INTO THE MID TERM. BY THE WEEKEND CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN
FEATURE LOCATION AND STRENGTH PLAGUE THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA A 508 DAM LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER BRISTOL
BAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A VERY SHARP RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA. THE LOW WEAKENS TO AROUND 520 DAM AS IT
CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE SHARP RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA IS FLATTENED OUT AND
PUSHED INTO BRISTOL BAY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A 504 DAM LOW
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND MOVES TO THE EAST AS
A SECONDARY LOW CENTER REACHES THE BERING STRAITS BY THURSDAY
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE
BROOKS RANGE AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW OVER WEST COAST AND
THE WESTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
SATURDAY.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1040 MB HIGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE HIGH
ARCTIC AS A 980 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA MOVES SLOWLY TO
THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS
CREATING VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST ON THE NORTH SLOPE WITH
HIGH WIND WARNING HOISTED FOR ZONES 202...203 AND ZONE 204. WIND
GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW WARNING LEVELS LATE THIS EVENING.
FREEZING DRIZZLE...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WIDESPREAD IN THE COASTAL
ZONES ON THE NORTH SLOPE AND VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
IN BLOWING SNOW NOTED IN THE PLAINS IN ZONES 205 AND 206.

IN THE INTERIOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS ON THE SUMMITS ARE GUSTY BUT
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A FEW AREAS OF ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION...MORE THAN FLURRIES. NO REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN
HAVE BEEN NOTED AT REPORTING STATIONS...HOWEVER REPORTS OF
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN WERE RECEIVED ALONG THE DALTON HIGHWAY
IN WESTERN ZONE 220 WHERE TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE REPORTED AS
EXTREMELY SLICK. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN WAS
ISSUED THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THIS AREA.

ALONG THE WEST COAST...BRISK OFF SHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AND THOUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH STRONG WIND HEADLINES
FOR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ220.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

$$

CCC OCT 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 201027
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
227 AM AKDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...HAVE BEEN HANDLING FEATURES WELL OVER THE PAST WEEK OR
SO IN THE SHORT TERM. THEY DO HAVE ISSUES AS YOU GET OUT INTO THE
MID RANGE AS THEY DIVERGE GREATLY BY SUNDAY. HANDLING OF THE LOW
ON THURSDAY IS REASONABLE SO WILL USE A BLEND NUDGED TO THE
CURRENT GRIDS THROUGH THE WEEK.

ALOFT...AT 500 MB...TROUGH REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND
PATTERN OVER THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION AS THE 516 DAM
CLOSED LOW MOVES SOUTH THEN EAST AND MERGES WITH A 514 DAM LOW
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP WEST TO
EAST OVER THE INTERIOR BEGINNING TUESDAY. RIDGE LYING NORTH TO
SOUTH OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE WEST COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. A 535 DAM HIGH OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW
IN HIGH IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL BACK OVER THE ARCTIC COAST
WITH A 527 DAM LOW DEVELOPING OVER BARROW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT
850 HPA...TEMPERATURES STEADY NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN A SLOW COOLING
TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

SURFACE...A 1040MB HIGH IN THE HIGH ARCTIC REMAINS QUASI
STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEK AS IT WEAKENS TO 1035MB. 980MB LOW IN
THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THEN BE
ABSORBED BY A 982MB THAT IS 400NM SOUTH OF KODIAK THIS MORNING AND
WILL BE 200NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
WOBBLE WEST TO 300NM SOUTH OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA
WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN
OVER THE WEST COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. A 1000MB LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TUESDAY EVENING AND MOVE TO THE GULF
OF ANADYR BY THURSDAY MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA WITH STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OVER TH ARCTIC COAST AND
COASTAL WATERS. THE GRADIENT OVER THE INTERIOR WILL WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONG GRADIENT HANGING ON OVER THE ARCTIC
INTO FRIDAY.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AND MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 50
MPH. WINDS ON THE COAST DIMINISHING THURSDAY MORNING...BUT HANGING
ON INTO FRIDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. NO CHANGE IN THE
FLURRIES...SNOW SHOWERS...OCCASIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE...PATCHY
FOG...LOCAL BLOWING SNOW...LOW STRATUS CEILINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN PRETTY STEADY...BUT FALL A DEGREE OF TWO THROUGH THE WEEK.
NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...OFFSHORE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE
WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE BERING STRAIT
OF 20 TO 30 MPH. INLAND WINDS NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER THE HILLS TO 25 MPH. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND OVER ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND WITH A FEW FLURRIES IN THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY POSSIBLE.
AREAS IN THE LOWER YUKON DELTA COULD SEE AROUND ONE INCH OF
SNOW...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE COAST STEADY WITH INTERIOR AREAS SEEING
TEMPERATURES FALL A COUPLE DEGREES THROUGH MID WEEK.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
ALCAN BORDER. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING PRODUCING FLURRIES FOR MOST AREAS
BY DAYS END. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OVER THE HILLS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
TODAY WILL BE STRONGEST ON HILLS AND DOWN VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES STEADY TODAY INTO TUESDAY THEN A SLOW
COOL DOWN THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...A 994MB LOW WILL MOVE TO
THE GULF OF ANADYR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM
REACHING THE COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY. THIS COULD PUSH
WATER INTO NORTON SOUND FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.

&&

$$

SDB OCT 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 201027
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
227 AM AKDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...HAVE BEEN HANDLING FEATURES WELL OVER THE PAST WEEK OR
SO IN THE SHORT TERM. THEY DO HAVE ISSUES AS YOU GET OUT INTO THE
MID RANGE AS THEY DIVERGE GREATLY BY SUNDAY. HANDLING OF THE LOW
ON THURSDAY IS REASONABLE SO WILL USE A BLEND NUDGED TO THE
CURRENT GRIDS THROUGH THE WEEK.

ALOFT...AT 500 MB...TROUGH REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND
PATTERN OVER THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION AS THE 516 DAM
CLOSED LOW MOVES SOUTH THEN EAST AND MERGES WITH A 514 DAM LOW
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP WEST TO
EAST OVER THE INTERIOR BEGINNING TUESDAY. RIDGE LYING NORTH TO
SOUTH OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE WEST COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. A 535 DAM HIGH OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW
IN HIGH IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL BACK OVER THE ARCTIC COAST
WITH A 527 DAM LOW DEVELOPING OVER BARROW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT
850 HPA...TEMPERATURES STEADY NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN A SLOW COOLING
TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

SURFACE...A 1040MB HIGH IN THE HIGH ARCTIC REMAINS QUASI
STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEK AS IT WEAKENS TO 1035MB. 980MB LOW IN
THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THEN BE
ABSORBED BY A 982MB THAT IS 400NM SOUTH OF KODIAK THIS MORNING AND
WILL BE 200NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
WOBBLE WEST TO 300NM SOUTH OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA
WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN
OVER THE WEST COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. A 1000MB LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TUESDAY EVENING AND MOVE TO THE GULF
OF ANADYR BY THURSDAY MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA WITH STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OVER TH ARCTIC COAST AND
COASTAL WATERS. THE GRADIENT OVER THE INTERIOR WILL WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONG GRADIENT HANGING ON OVER THE ARCTIC
INTO FRIDAY.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AND MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 50
MPH. WINDS ON THE COAST DIMINISHING THURSDAY MORNING...BUT HANGING
ON INTO FRIDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. NO CHANGE IN THE
FLURRIES...SNOW SHOWERS...OCCASIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE...PATCHY
FOG...LOCAL BLOWING SNOW...LOW STRATUS CEILINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN PRETTY STEADY...BUT FALL A DEGREE OF TWO THROUGH THE WEEK.
NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...OFFSHORE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE
WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE BERING STRAIT
OF 20 TO 30 MPH. INLAND WINDS NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER THE HILLS TO 25 MPH. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND OVER ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND WITH A FEW FLURRIES IN THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY POSSIBLE.
AREAS IN THE LOWER YUKON DELTA COULD SEE AROUND ONE INCH OF
SNOW...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE COAST STEADY WITH INTERIOR AREAS SEEING
TEMPERATURES FALL A COUPLE DEGREES THROUGH MID WEEK.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
ALCAN BORDER. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING PRODUCING FLURRIES FOR MOST AREAS
BY DAYS END. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OVER THE HILLS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
TODAY WILL BE STRONGEST ON HILLS AND DOWN VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES STEADY TODAY INTO TUESDAY THEN A SLOW
COOL DOWN THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...A 994MB LOW WILL MOVE TO
THE GULF OF ANADYR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM
REACHING THE COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY. THIS COULD PUSH
WATER INTO NORTON SOUND FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.

&&

$$

SDB OCT 14




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities