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000
FXAK69 PAFG 281507
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
607 AM AKST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...


UPPER AIR...
RIDGE ALOFT ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER AND SOUTHWARD WILL BE PUSHED
EASTWARD AND FLATTENED AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CUTS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE RIDGE. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOW OVER THE
BERING SEA ALONG 175W...AND WILL MOVE EAST TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...RIDGING
WILL REBUILD SUN AND MON...THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORY TUE. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA AND CHUKCHI BY TUE MORNING...AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE ARCTIC SLOPE SLOPE AND BEAUFORT SEA THROUGH WED MORNING. THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING COLDER AIR ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTH SLOPE AND BEAUFORT SEA...BUT TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
REBOUND SUN INTO MON AS UPPER RIDGING REBUILDS. THE SECOND SHORT
WAVE WILL IMPACT AREAS MAINLY FROM THE BROOKS RANGE NORTHWARD.

SURFACE...
06Z GFS/NAM MODEL RUNS INITIALIZE WELL ON THE 1004 MB LOW CENTER
JUST WEST OF GAMBELL. THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHWEST ALASKA
AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA. GFS/NAM PROGGED POSITION
FOR 9 PM SAT IS ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT...CENTRAL
PRESSURE AROUND 993 MB. GFS PROG AGREES WELL WITH THE 00Z GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN. BY 9 AM SUN...THE LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO BANKS
ISLAND WEAKENING TO AROUND 996 MB. A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY REBUILD
EASTWARD FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...ALONG WITH
RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND SHARP COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA.

NORTH SLOPE...
STRONG WINDS...SNOW...AND BLOWING SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHWEST ALASKA COAST THIS MORNING...SPREADING RAPIDLY EASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ON THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. SEVERE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST EARLY
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND NOON SUN ON THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST...
AND THROUGH AROUND 6 PM SUN ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. THE COLD
ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT ARE VERY STRONG. ON
THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST...A PRESSURE RISE OF ALMOST 25 MB IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN 6 PM THIS EVENING AND 3 AM SUN...WITH ANOTHER 10
MB RISE BETWEEN 3 AM SUN AND 9 AM SUN. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
AND AT LOWER LEVELS ALOFT WILL FALL BY 22-23 DEGREES CELSIUS
BETWEEN 6 PM THIS EVENING AND 3 AM SUN. WINDS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
ALOFT WILL MAX OUT AT 60-65 KT. THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE WEST WINDS TO AROUND
65 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT.
WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 50-60 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON THE CENTRAL ARCTIC
COAST. A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ON THE
ARCTIC COAST...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS WINDS EXPECTED ON THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVER THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY SUN AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME EAST 15-25 MPH BY
LATE SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN ARCTIC
COAST BY SUN EVENING...AND ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARCTIC
COASTS BY LATE SUN NIGHT.

THE NEXT SURFACE LOW CENTER IS PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE COAST TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. SINCE THE PROJECTED TRACK OF
THIS LOW IS ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST INSTEAD OF FARTHER TO
THE NORTH...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN
THOSE PRODUCED BY THE CURRENT SYSTEM...AND REDEVELOPMENT
OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

INTERIOR...
THE EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT...ALONG
WITH THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...COLD ADVECTION...AND
STRONG PRESSURE RISES...WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND
SNOW TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR TODAY...AND TO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES IN MOST AREAS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO GUST TO AS HIGH AS 40-45 MPH AT VALLEY LEVELS IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN INTERIOR. HIGHER SUMMITS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE WINDS
OF 30 TO 50 MPH AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW.

OVER THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW DEVELOPING. THE
STRONGEST WINDS...ALONG WITH MORE SNOW...ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN 6 PM THIS EVENING AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH
THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION. WINDS
AT LOWER LEVELS OF ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO MAX OUT AT AROUND 40 KT.
THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL RESULT IN BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS AND BECOME LIGHT BY SUN MORNING.

ON THE WEST COAST...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END IN ALMOST ALL AREAS
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EFFECT
FOR ZONES 207-208-213-217...BUT ARE SCHEDULED TO END TODAY OR
THIS EVENING. GOES IR LOOP CURRENTLY SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE
COLDEST CLOUD TOPS AND SNOW CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM POINT HOPE
TO NOME AND EMMONAK...AND IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD.

ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED ON THE WEST COAST...
ZONE 207...6 INCHES.
ZONE 208...6 TO 10 INCHES.
ZONE 209...4 INCHES.
ZONE 210...4 INCHES.
ZONE 211...UP TO 4 INCHES.
ZONE 212...4 INCHES.
ZONE 213...3 INCHES.
ZONE 216...UP TO 4 INCHES.
ZONE 217...6 TO 10 INCHES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205-AKZ209-AKZ210-
AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ224.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR PKZ245.

&&

$$

RF FEB 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 272223
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
123 PM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ALL WEEK IN DEVELOPMENT OF THE
WEATHER FRONT IN THE BERING SEA THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE WITH VERY MINOR PRESSURE
DIFFERENCES. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE CURRENT
GRIDDED DATABASE...BUT WILL BUMP MOST OF THE POPS UP USING THE
SREF SO WE HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION
NUMBERS LOOK PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH AROUND ONE HALF INCH SO MOST
AREAS WILL SEE 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
EXTENDS FROM A HIGH NEAR HAWAII. THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED OUT
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TOP OF IT THIS EVENING. A
SECOND...MUCH STRONGER...SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 499 DAM LOW
WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN FROM
WAINWRIGHT TO TANANA TO LIME VILLAGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW FALLS 497 DAM AS IT MOVES TO THE HIGH ARCTIC. THE LOW
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TO 78N 160W IN THE HIGH ARCTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO LIE FROM DEADHORSE TO FORT YUKON TO
MCCARTHY BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING...THEN EXITS THE STATE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN PRETTY RAPIDLY BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE AS HEIGHTS CLIMB FROM AROUND 534 DAM SATURDAY EVENING TO
AROUND 550 DAM SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY STALLING OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 532 DAM LOW OVER THE WESTERN
ALASKA PENINSULA DIGS IN OVER THE WEST COAST. AT 850 HPA...COLD
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 12 TO 16 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AND RISE 12 TO 16 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE MONDAY...THEN BECOME PRETTY STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS KICK UP PRETTY GOOD WITH THE FRONT TO 40
TO 50 KTS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SURFACE...1029 MB HIGH OVER THE INTERIOR WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AND
EAST AS A RAPIDLY MOVING WEATHER FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS IT LIES FROM POINT HOPE TO NOME TO KIPNUK BY AROUND 3
AM...THEN FROM WAINWRIGHT TO KOTZEBUE TO MARSHALL BY 9AM SATURDAY.
THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST TO LIE FROM NUIQSUT TO BETTLES TO TANANA
TO LIME VILLAGE BY 3 PM...AND THEN FROM DEMARCATION POINT TO FORT
YUKON TO EIELSON TO PALMER BY 6 PM SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE EAST EXITING THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A
FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS A 1040 MB
HIGH BUILDS IN RAPIDLY BEHIND IT...WINDS WILL COME DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY BY MID DAY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER
THE INTERIOR. STRONG GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT
MOVES OVER THE ARCTIC COAST SUNDAY EVENING AT 1045 MB...THEN
SLIDES INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING ALONG
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA AND BROOKS RANGES.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...IT IS GOING TO BE A MESS THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SHOWING
AROUND 20 CELSIUS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THAT COMBINED WITH
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SOME VERY SIGNIFICANT
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN
THE WEST THIS EVENING AND WORK ACROSS THE ARCTIC. INITIALLY WINDS
WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 MPH GUSTING AROUND 50
MPH...THAT WILL BE AS STRONG AS THE WIND GETS WEST OF
NUIQSUT...TO THE EAST OF NUIQSUT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINE TO PUSH
WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE OF 65 MPH GUSTING TO 80 MPH. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
EAST AND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 3
TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE BLOWN AROUND INTO
DRIFTS. VISIBILITY WILL BE VERY POOR AND WHITE OUT CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL 20 TO 30 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
THEN REBOUND UP 10 TO 20 DEGREES FAIRLY RAPIDLY MONDAY. WILL
ISSUE BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR ZONES 203...204...AND 206 MAINLY EAST
OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MAINLY
BLOWING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS FOR ZONES 201...202...AND 205.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SNOW SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE
COAST THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. SOME AREAS
WILL SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS FIRST SHOT. THE NEXT
SHOT WILL COME WITH THE FRONT THAT GETS TO THE COAST SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CARRY A LITTLE PUNCH WITH IT SO EXPECT 3
TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES WEST
TO EAST. THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BEGIN CLEARING BY NOON WITH
INLAND AREAS CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG OUT HERE AS THEY WILL BE ON THE ARCTIC COAST AND IN
THE INTERIOR AS THE COLD AIR HANGS BACK A LITTLE. STILL EXPECT
THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE.
STRONG WINDS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECT IN THE KOTZEBUE SOUND REGION
AND THE BERING STRAIT...BUT THEY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ROLLER COASTER AS THEY COOL RAPIDLY
BEHIND THE FRONT THEN WARM RAPIDLY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE
WINTER STORM WARNINGS UP FOR 207...208...213...AND 217. WILL
ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 209 AND 210 FOR NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WEATHER FRONT MARCHES
THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS INCREASING AROUND TANANA BY 10 AM SATURDAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING FAIRLY RAPIDLY IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS TRENDING DOWN OVERNIGHT
FROM THE WEST. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HILLS WITH GUSTS
TO 50 MPH BUT EXPECT WINDS IN THE VALLEYS TO GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH. SNOWFALL WITH THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 7 INCH RANGE FOR
MOST AREAS...BUT MUCH OF THAT SNOW ON THE HILLS WILL BE BLOWN
AROUND INTO DRIFTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW IN
THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOOK FOR THEM TO REBOUND MONDAY. WILL ISSUE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 218...219...220...221...222...AND
224.

SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 27/2040Z/NPP VIIRS AT 27/2012Z 24 HOUR
AND NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGBS SHOW THE LARGE AREA OF STRATUS
MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR. A LITTLE HARDER TO SEE
IT ON THE NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS...BUT USING IN COMBINATION WITH
THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS AND THE GOES CLOUD PHASE PRODUCT
IT STANDS OUT REALLY WELL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205-AKZ218-AKZ219-
AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ235.

&&

$$

SDB FEB 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 272223
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
123 PM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ALL WEEK IN DEVELOPMENT OF THE
WEATHER FRONT IN THE BERING SEA THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE WITH VERY MINOR PRESSURE
DIFFERENCES. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE CURRENT
GRIDDED DATABASE...BUT WILL BUMP MOST OF THE POPS UP USING THE
SREF SO WE HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION
NUMBERS LOOK PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH AROUND ONE HALF INCH SO MOST
AREAS WILL SEE 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
EXTENDS FROM A HIGH NEAR HAWAII. THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED OUT
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TOP OF IT THIS EVENING. A
SECOND...MUCH STRONGER...SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 499 DAM LOW
WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN FROM
WAINWRIGHT TO TANANA TO LIME VILLAGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW FALLS 497 DAM AS IT MOVES TO THE HIGH ARCTIC. THE LOW
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TO 78N 160W IN THE HIGH ARCTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO LIE FROM DEADHORSE TO FORT YUKON TO
MCCARTHY BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING...THEN EXITS THE STATE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN PRETTY RAPIDLY BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE AS HEIGHTS CLIMB FROM AROUND 534 DAM SATURDAY EVENING TO
AROUND 550 DAM SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY STALLING OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 532 DAM LOW OVER THE WESTERN
ALASKA PENINSULA DIGS IN OVER THE WEST COAST. AT 850 HPA...COLD
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 12 TO 16 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AND RISE 12 TO 16 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE MONDAY...THEN BECOME PRETTY STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS KICK UP PRETTY GOOD WITH THE FRONT TO 40
TO 50 KTS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SURFACE...1029 MB HIGH OVER THE INTERIOR WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AND
EAST AS A RAPIDLY MOVING WEATHER FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS IT LIES FROM POINT HOPE TO NOME TO KIPNUK BY AROUND 3
AM...THEN FROM WAINWRIGHT TO KOTZEBUE TO MARSHALL BY 9AM SATURDAY.
THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST TO LIE FROM NUIQSUT TO BETTLES TO TANANA
TO LIME VILLAGE BY 3 PM...AND THEN FROM DEMARCATION POINT TO FORT
YUKON TO EIELSON TO PALMER BY 6 PM SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE EAST EXITING THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A
FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS A 1040 MB
HIGH BUILDS IN RAPIDLY BEHIND IT...WINDS WILL COME DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY BY MID DAY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER
THE INTERIOR. STRONG GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT
MOVES OVER THE ARCTIC COAST SUNDAY EVENING AT 1045 MB...THEN
SLIDES INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING ALONG
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA AND BROOKS RANGES.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...IT IS GOING TO BE A MESS THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SHOWING
AROUND 20 CELSIUS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THAT COMBINED WITH
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SOME VERY SIGNIFICANT
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN
THE WEST THIS EVENING AND WORK ACROSS THE ARCTIC. INITIALLY WINDS
WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 MPH GUSTING AROUND 50
MPH...THAT WILL BE AS STRONG AS THE WIND GETS WEST OF
NUIQSUT...TO THE EAST OF NUIQSUT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINE TO PUSH
WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE OF 65 MPH GUSTING TO 80 MPH. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
EAST AND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 3
TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE BLOWN AROUND INTO
DRIFTS. VISIBILITY WILL BE VERY POOR AND WHITE OUT CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL 20 TO 30 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
THEN REBOUND UP 10 TO 20 DEGREES FAIRLY RAPIDLY MONDAY. WILL
ISSUE BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR ZONES 203...204...AND 206 MAINLY EAST
OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MAINLY
BLOWING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS FOR ZONES 201...202...AND 205.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SNOW SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE
COAST THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. SOME AREAS
WILL SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS FIRST SHOT. THE NEXT
SHOT WILL COME WITH THE FRONT THAT GETS TO THE COAST SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CARRY A LITTLE PUNCH WITH IT SO EXPECT 3
TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES WEST
TO EAST. THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BEGIN CLEARING BY NOON WITH
INLAND AREAS CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG OUT HERE AS THEY WILL BE ON THE ARCTIC COAST AND IN
THE INTERIOR AS THE COLD AIR HANGS BACK A LITTLE. STILL EXPECT
THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE.
STRONG WINDS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECT IN THE KOTZEBUE SOUND REGION
AND THE BERING STRAIT...BUT THEY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ROLLER COASTER AS THEY COOL RAPIDLY
BEHIND THE FRONT THEN WARM RAPIDLY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE
WINTER STORM WARNINGS UP FOR 207...208...213...AND 217. WILL
ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 209 AND 210 FOR NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WEATHER FRONT MARCHES
THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS INCREASING AROUND TANANA BY 10 AM SATURDAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING FAIRLY RAPIDLY IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS TRENDING DOWN OVERNIGHT
FROM THE WEST. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HILLS WITH GUSTS
TO 50 MPH BUT EXPECT WINDS IN THE VALLEYS TO GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH. SNOWFALL WITH THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 7 INCH RANGE FOR
MOST AREAS...BUT MUCH OF THAT SNOW ON THE HILLS WILL BE BLOWN
AROUND INTO DRIFTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW IN
THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOOK FOR THEM TO REBOUND MONDAY. WILL ISSUE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 218...219...220...221...222...AND
224.

SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 27/2040Z/NPP VIIRS AT 27/2012Z 24 HOUR
AND NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGBS SHOW THE LARGE AREA OF STRATUS
MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR. A LITTLE HARDER TO SEE
IT ON THE NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS...BUT USING IN COMBINATION WITH
THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS AND THE GOES CLOUD PHASE PRODUCT
IT STANDS OUT REALLY WELL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205-AKZ218-AKZ219-
AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ235.

&&

$$

SDB FEB 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 272223
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
123 PM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ALL WEEK IN DEVELOPMENT OF THE
WEATHER FRONT IN THE BERING SEA THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE WITH VERY MINOR PRESSURE
DIFFERENCES. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE CURRENT
GRIDDED DATABASE...BUT WILL BUMP MOST OF THE POPS UP USING THE
SREF SO WE HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION
NUMBERS LOOK PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH AROUND ONE HALF INCH SO MOST
AREAS WILL SEE 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
EXTENDS FROM A HIGH NEAR HAWAII. THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED OUT
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TOP OF IT THIS EVENING. A
SECOND...MUCH STRONGER...SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 499 DAM LOW
WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN FROM
WAINWRIGHT TO TANANA TO LIME VILLAGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW FALLS 497 DAM AS IT MOVES TO THE HIGH ARCTIC. THE LOW
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TO 78N 160W IN THE HIGH ARCTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO LIE FROM DEADHORSE TO FORT YUKON TO
MCCARTHY BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING...THEN EXITS THE STATE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN PRETTY RAPIDLY BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE AS HEIGHTS CLIMB FROM AROUND 534 DAM SATURDAY EVENING TO
AROUND 550 DAM SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY STALLING OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 532 DAM LOW OVER THE WESTERN
ALASKA PENINSULA DIGS IN OVER THE WEST COAST. AT 850 HPA...COLD
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 12 TO 16 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AND RISE 12 TO 16 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE MONDAY...THEN BECOME PRETTY STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS KICK UP PRETTY GOOD WITH THE FRONT TO 40
TO 50 KTS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SURFACE...1029 MB HIGH OVER THE INTERIOR WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AND
EAST AS A RAPIDLY MOVING WEATHER FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS IT LIES FROM POINT HOPE TO NOME TO KIPNUK BY AROUND 3
AM...THEN FROM WAINWRIGHT TO KOTZEBUE TO MARSHALL BY 9AM SATURDAY.
THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST TO LIE FROM NUIQSUT TO BETTLES TO TANANA
TO LIME VILLAGE BY 3 PM...AND THEN FROM DEMARCATION POINT TO FORT
YUKON TO EIELSON TO PALMER BY 6 PM SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE EAST EXITING THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A
FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS A 1040 MB
HIGH BUILDS IN RAPIDLY BEHIND IT...WINDS WILL COME DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY BY MID DAY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER
THE INTERIOR. STRONG GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT
MOVES OVER THE ARCTIC COAST SUNDAY EVENING AT 1045 MB...THEN
SLIDES INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING ALONG
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA AND BROOKS RANGES.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...IT IS GOING TO BE A MESS THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SHOWING
AROUND 20 CELSIUS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THAT COMBINED WITH
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SOME VERY SIGNIFICANT
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN
THE WEST THIS EVENING AND WORK ACROSS THE ARCTIC. INITIALLY WINDS
WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 MPH GUSTING AROUND 50
MPH...THAT WILL BE AS STRONG AS THE WIND GETS WEST OF
NUIQSUT...TO THE EAST OF NUIQSUT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINE TO PUSH
WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE OF 65 MPH GUSTING TO 80 MPH. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
EAST AND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 3
TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE BLOWN AROUND INTO
DRIFTS. VISIBILITY WILL BE VERY POOR AND WHITE OUT CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL 20 TO 30 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
THEN REBOUND UP 10 TO 20 DEGREES FAIRLY RAPIDLY MONDAY. WILL
ISSUE BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR ZONES 203...204...AND 206 MAINLY EAST
OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MAINLY
BLOWING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS FOR ZONES 201...202...AND 205.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SNOW SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE
COAST THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. SOME AREAS
WILL SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS FIRST SHOT. THE NEXT
SHOT WILL COME WITH THE FRONT THAT GETS TO THE COAST SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CARRY A LITTLE PUNCH WITH IT SO EXPECT 3
TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES WEST
TO EAST. THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BEGIN CLEARING BY NOON WITH
INLAND AREAS CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG OUT HERE AS THEY WILL BE ON THE ARCTIC COAST AND IN
THE INTERIOR AS THE COLD AIR HANGS BACK A LITTLE. STILL EXPECT
THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE.
STRONG WINDS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECT IN THE KOTZEBUE SOUND REGION
AND THE BERING STRAIT...BUT THEY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ROLLER COASTER AS THEY COOL RAPIDLY
BEHIND THE FRONT THEN WARM RAPIDLY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE
WINTER STORM WARNINGS UP FOR 207...208...213...AND 217. WILL
ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 209 AND 210 FOR NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WEATHER FRONT MARCHES
THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS INCREASING AROUND TANANA BY 10 AM SATURDAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING FAIRLY RAPIDLY IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS TRENDING DOWN OVERNIGHT
FROM THE WEST. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HILLS WITH GUSTS
TO 50 MPH BUT EXPECT WINDS IN THE VALLEYS TO GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH. SNOWFALL WITH THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 7 INCH RANGE FOR
MOST AREAS...BUT MUCH OF THAT SNOW ON THE HILLS WILL BE BLOWN
AROUND INTO DRIFTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW IN
THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOOK FOR THEM TO REBOUND MONDAY. WILL ISSUE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 218...219...220...221...222...AND
224.

SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 27/2040Z/NPP VIIRS AT 27/2012Z 24 HOUR
AND NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGBS SHOW THE LARGE AREA OF STRATUS
MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR. A LITTLE HARDER TO SEE
IT ON THE NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS...BUT USING IN COMBINATION WITH
THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS AND THE GOES CLOUD PHASE PRODUCT
IT STANDS OUT REALLY WELL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205-AKZ218-AKZ219-
AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ235.

&&

$$

SDB FEB 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 272223
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
123 PM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ALL WEEK IN DEVELOPMENT OF THE
WEATHER FRONT IN THE BERING SEA THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE WITH VERY MINOR PRESSURE
DIFFERENCES. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE CURRENT
GRIDDED DATABASE...BUT WILL BUMP MOST OF THE POPS UP USING THE
SREF SO WE HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION
NUMBERS LOOK PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH AROUND ONE HALF INCH SO MOST
AREAS WILL SEE 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
EXTENDS FROM A HIGH NEAR HAWAII. THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED OUT
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TOP OF IT THIS EVENING. A
SECOND...MUCH STRONGER...SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 499 DAM LOW
WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN FROM
WAINWRIGHT TO TANANA TO LIME VILLAGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW FALLS 497 DAM AS IT MOVES TO THE HIGH ARCTIC. THE LOW
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TO 78N 160W IN THE HIGH ARCTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO LIE FROM DEADHORSE TO FORT YUKON TO
MCCARTHY BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING...THEN EXITS THE STATE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN PRETTY RAPIDLY BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE AS HEIGHTS CLIMB FROM AROUND 534 DAM SATURDAY EVENING TO
AROUND 550 DAM SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY STALLING OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 532 DAM LOW OVER THE WESTERN
ALASKA PENINSULA DIGS IN OVER THE WEST COAST. AT 850 HPA...COLD
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 12 TO 16 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AND RISE 12 TO 16 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE MONDAY...THEN BECOME PRETTY STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS KICK UP PRETTY GOOD WITH THE FRONT TO 40
TO 50 KTS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SURFACE...1029 MB HIGH OVER THE INTERIOR WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AND
EAST AS A RAPIDLY MOVING WEATHER FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS IT LIES FROM POINT HOPE TO NOME TO KIPNUK BY AROUND 3
AM...THEN FROM WAINWRIGHT TO KOTZEBUE TO MARSHALL BY 9AM SATURDAY.
THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST TO LIE FROM NUIQSUT TO BETTLES TO TANANA
TO LIME VILLAGE BY 3 PM...AND THEN FROM DEMARCATION POINT TO FORT
YUKON TO EIELSON TO PALMER BY 6 PM SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE EAST EXITING THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A
FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS A 1040 MB
HIGH BUILDS IN RAPIDLY BEHIND IT...WINDS WILL COME DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY BY MID DAY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER
THE INTERIOR. STRONG GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT
MOVES OVER THE ARCTIC COAST SUNDAY EVENING AT 1045 MB...THEN
SLIDES INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING ALONG
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA AND BROOKS RANGES.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...IT IS GOING TO BE A MESS THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SHOWING
AROUND 20 CELSIUS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THAT COMBINED WITH
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SOME VERY SIGNIFICANT
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN
THE WEST THIS EVENING AND WORK ACROSS THE ARCTIC. INITIALLY WINDS
WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 MPH GUSTING AROUND 50
MPH...THAT WILL BE AS STRONG AS THE WIND GETS WEST OF
NUIQSUT...TO THE EAST OF NUIQSUT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINE TO PUSH
WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE OF 65 MPH GUSTING TO 80 MPH. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
EAST AND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 3
TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE BLOWN AROUND INTO
DRIFTS. VISIBILITY WILL BE VERY POOR AND WHITE OUT CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL 20 TO 30 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
THEN REBOUND UP 10 TO 20 DEGREES FAIRLY RAPIDLY MONDAY. WILL
ISSUE BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR ZONES 203...204...AND 206 MAINLY EAST
OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MAINLY
BLOWING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS FOR ZONES 201...202...AND 205.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SNOW SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE
COAST THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. SOME AREAS
WILL SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS FIRST SHOT. THE NEXT
SHOT WILL COME WITH THE FRONT THAT GETS TO THE COAST SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CARRY A LITTLE PUNCH WITH IT SO EXPECT 3
TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES WEST
TO EAST. THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BEGIN CLEARING BY NOON WITH
INLAND AREAS CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG OUT HERE AS THEY WILL BE ON THE ARCTIC COAST AND IN
THE INTERIOR AS THE COLD AIR HANGS BACK A LITTLE. STILL EXPECT
THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE.
STRONG WINDS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECT IN THE KOTZEBUE SOUND REGION
AND THE BERING STRAIT...BUT THEY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ROLLER COASTER AS THEY COOL RAPIDLY
BEHIND THE FRONT THEN WARM RAPIDLY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE
WINTER STORM WARNINGS UP FOR 207...208...213...AND 217. WILL
ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 209 AND 210 FOR NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WEATHER FRONT MARCHES
THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS INCREASING AROUND TANANA BY 10 AM SATURDAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING FAIRLY RAPIDLY IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS TRENDING DOWN OVERNIGHT
FROM THE WEST. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HILLS WITH GUSTS
TO 50 MPH BUT EXPECT WINDS IN THE VALLEYS TO GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH. SNOWFALL WITH THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 7 INCH RANGE FOR
MOST AREAS...BUT MUCH OF THAT SNOW ON THE HILLS WILL BE BLOWN
AROUND INTO DRIFTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW IN
THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOOK FOR THEM TO REBOUND MONDAY. WILL ISSUE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 218...219...220...221...222...AND
224.

SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 27/2040Z/NPP VIIRS AT 27/2012Z 24 HOUR
AND NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGBS SHOW THE LARGE AREA OF STRATUS
MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR. A LITTLE HARDER TO SEE
IT ON THE NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS...BUT USING IN COMBINATION WITH
THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS AND THE GOES CLOUD PHASE PRODUCT
IT STANDS OUT REALLY WELL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205-AKZ218-AKZ219-
AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ235.

&&

$$

SDB FEB 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 271439
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
539 AM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND WILL BE TEMPORARILY
FLATTENED AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH
THE RIDGE. THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE NECK OF
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN.
THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD...ARRIVING ON THE ALASKA
WEST COAST BY 9 AM SAT...AND MOVING EASTWARD TO THE ALCAN BORDER
BY MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. SHARP COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ARCTIC SLOPE...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE.
THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER NORTHERN ALASKA SUN INTO MON...
RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT. WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD
OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA.

SURFACE...
1007 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF BARROW WILL MOVE
TO ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY NOON FRI...WEAKENING
TO 1012 MB. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE FRI AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO.

A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST MATTHEW
ISLAND WILL DEEPEN TO A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED OVER OUTER KOTZEBUE
SOUND BY 3 AM SAT...AND TO A 995 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES
NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY 9 PM SAT. THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS
OF THE GFS/NAM MODELS AND THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND DEPTH OF THE LOW CENTER. A STRONG COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BRING SHARPLY
COLDER AIR AND STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.

THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST...WHERE
SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY SAT EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. LESS SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND AT
LOWER LEVELS ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL BY 22-23 DEGREES CELSIUS BETWEEN 3 PM SAT AND 3 AM SUN. THIS
SHARP COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY EXTREMELY STRONG
PRESSURE RISES OF ABOUT 30 MB BETWEEN 3 PM SAT AND 9 AM SUN. THE
STRONGEST RATE OF PRESSURE RISE WILL BE SAT NIGHT...WITH AN
AVERAGE RATE OF RISE OF ABOUT 3 MB PER HOUR. THERE IS GOOD WIND
SUPPORT ALOFT...WITH WINDS BELOW 850 MB MAXING OUT AT 60-65 KT.
COLD ADVECTION...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND RAPID PRESSURE
RISES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SEVERE BLIZZARD WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS TO 65 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 80 MPH DEVELOPING SAT
EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME ON
SUN BUT STILL BE VERY STRONG. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST...BUT NOT BE AS SEVERE AS
ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WITH BLOWING
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ARCTIC COAST AND
INTERIOR ARCTIC SLOPE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...DIMINISHING OVER THE
WESTERN AREAS SUN. BLIZZARD WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST PACKAGE...AND NEW WINTER
WINTER ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR ZONES 201-202-205.

OVER THE INTERIOR...THE EASTWARD MOVING FRONT AND THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG...BUT NOT
AS STRONG AS THAT EXPECTED ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OVER HIGHER SUMMITS SAT NIGHT. IN THE
FAIRBANKS AREA...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS
ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES CELSIUS SAT
NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A PRESSURE RISE OF ABOUT 20 MB. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR SAT EVENING. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED AS THE SHORT WAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. 925 MB WINDS MAX OUT AT
35-45 KT. MODELS RUNS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO WILL LIMIT MAXIMUM GUSTS TO AROUND
45 MPH.

ON THE WEST COAST...SNOW HAS ENDED IN ZONES 210-211 AND WILL
LIKELY END IN ZONE 209 IN A FEW HOURS. MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
THESE ZONES SATURDAY AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD...FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS FOR HEAVY SNOW CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 207-208-217.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

RF FEB 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 271439
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
539 AM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND WILL BE TEMPORARILY
FLATTENED AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH
THE RIDGE. THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE NECK OF
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN.
THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD...ARRIVING ON THE ALASKA
WEST COAST BY 9 AM SAT...AND MOVING EASTWARD TO THE ALCAN BORDER
BY MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. SHARP COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ARCTIC SLOPE...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE.
THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER NORTHERN ALASKA SUN INTO MON...
RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT. WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD
OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA.

SURFACE...
1007 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF BARROW WILL MOVE
TO ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY NOON FRI...WEAKENING
TO 1012 MB. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE FRI AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO.

A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST MATTHEW
ISLAND WILL DEEPEN TO A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED OVER OUTER KOTZEBUE
SOUND BY 3 AM SAT...AND TO A 995 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES
NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY 9 PM SAT. THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS
OF THE GFS/NAM MODELS AND THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND DEPTH OF THE LOW CENTER. A STRONG COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BRING SHARPLY
COLDER AIR AND STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.

THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST...WHERE
SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY SAT EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. LESS SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND AT
LOWER LEVELS ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL BY 22-23 DEGREES CELSIUS BETWEEN 3 PM SAT AND 3 AM SUN. THIS
SHARP COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY EXTREMELY STRONG
PRESSURE RISES OF ABOUT 30 MB BETWEEN 3 PM SAT AND 9 AM SUN. THE
STRONGEST RATE OF PRESSURE RISE WILL BE SAT NIGHT...WITH AN
AVERAGE RATE OF RISE OF ABOUT 3 MB PER HOUR. THERE IS GOOD WIND
SUPPORT ALOFT...WITH WINDS BELOW 850 MB MAXING OUT AT 60-65 KT.
COLD ADVECTION...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND RAPID PRESSURE
RISES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SEVERE BLIZZARD WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS TO 65 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 80 MPH DEVELOPING SAT
EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME ON
SUN BUT STILL BE VERY STRONG. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST...BUT NOT BE AS SEVERE AS
ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WITH BLOWING
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ARCTIC COAST AND
INTERIOR ARCTIC SLOPE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...DIMINISHING OVER THE
WESTERN AREAS SUN. BLIZZARD WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST PACKAGE...AND NEW WINTER
WINTER ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR ZONES 201-202-205.

OVER THE INTERIOR...THE EASTWARD MOVING FRONT AND THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG...BUT NOT
AS STRONG AS THAT EXPECTED ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OVER HIGHER SUMMITS SAT NIGHT. IN THE
FAIRBANKS AREA...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS
ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES CELSIUS SAT
NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A PRESSURE RISE OF ABOUT 20 MB. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR SAT EVENING. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED AS THE SHORT WAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. 925 MB WINDS MAX OUT AT
35-45 KT. MODELS RUNS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO WILL LIMIT MAXIMUM GUSTS TO AROUND
45 MPH.

ON THE WEST COAST...SNOW HAS ENDED IN ZONES 210-211 AND WILL
LIKELY END IN ZONE 209 IN A FEW HOURS. MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
THESE ZONES SATURDAY AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD...FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS FOR HEAVY SNOW CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 207-208-217.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

RF FEB 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 271439
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
539 AM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND WILL BE TEMPORARILY
FLATTENED AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH
THE RIDGE. THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE NECK OF
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN.
THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD...ARRIVING ON THE ALASKA
WEST COAST BY 9 AM SAT...AND MOVING EASTWARD TO THE ALCAN BORDER
BY MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. SHARP COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ARCTIC SLOPE...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE.
THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER NORTHERN ALASKA SUN INTO MON...
RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT. WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD
OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA.

SURFACE...
1007 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF BARROW WILL MOVE
TO ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY NOON FRI...WEAKENING
TO 1012 MB. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE FRI AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO.

A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST MATTHEW
ISLAND WILL DEEPEN TO A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED OVER OUTER KOTZEBUE
SOUND BY 3 AM SAT...AND TO A 995 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES
NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY 9 PM SAT. THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS
OF THE GFS/NAM MODELS AND THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND DEPTH OF THE LOW CENTER. A STRONG COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BRING SHARPLY
COLDER AIR AND STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.

THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST...WHERE
SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY SAT EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. LESS SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND AT
LOWER LEVELS ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL BY 22-23 DEGREES CELSIUS BETWEEN 3 PM SAT AND 3 AM SUN. THIS
SHARP COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY EXTREMELY STRONG
PRESSURE RISES OF ABOUT 30 MB BETWEEN 3 PM SAT AND 9 AM SUN. THE
STRONGEST RATE OF PRESSURE RISE WILL BE SAT NIGHT...WITH AN
AVERAGE RATE OF RISE OF ABOUT 3 MB PER HOUR. THERE IS GOOD WIND
SUPPORT ALOFT...WITH WINDS BELOW 850 MB MAXING OUT AT 60-65 KT.
COLD ADVECTION...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND RAPID PRESSURE
RISES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SEVERE BLIZZARD WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS TO 65 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 80 MPH DEVELOPING SAT
EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME ON
SUN BUT STILL BE VERY STRONG. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST...BUT NOT BE AS SEVERE AS
ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WITH BLOWING
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ARCTIC COAST AND
INTERIOR ARCTIC SLOPE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...DIMINISHING OVER THE
WESTERN AREAS SUN. BLIZZARD WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST PACKAGE...AND NEW WINTER
WINTER ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR ZONES 201-202-205.

OVER THE INTERIOR...THE EASTWARD MOVING FRONT AND THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG...BUT NOT
AS STRONG AS THAT EXPECTED ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OVER HIGHER SUMMITS SAT NIGHT. IN THE
FAIRBANKS AREA...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS
ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES CELSIUS SAT
NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A PRESSURE RISE OF ABOUT 20 MB. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR SAT EVENING. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED AS THE SHORT WAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. 925 MB WINDS MAX OUT AT
35-45 KT. MODELS RUNS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO WILL LIMIT MAXIMUM GUSTS TO AROUND
45 MPH.

ON THE WEST COAST...SNOW HAS ENDED IN ZONES 210-211 AND WILL
LIKELY END IN ZONE 209 IN A FEW HOURS. MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
THESE ZONES SATURDAY AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD...FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS FOR HEAVY SNOW CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 207-208-217.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

RF FEB 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 271439 CCA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
539 AM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

CORRECTED LAST LINE IN PARAGRAPH 4

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND WILL BE TEMPORARILY
FLATTENED AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH
THE RIDGE. THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE NECK OF
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN.
THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD...ARRIVING ON THE ALASKA
WEST COAST BY 9 AM SAT...AND MOVING EASTWARD TO THE ALCAN BORDER
BY MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. SHARP COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ARCTIC SLOPE...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE.
THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER NORTHERN ALASKA SUN INTO MON...
RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT. WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD
OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA.

SURFACE...
1007 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF BARROW WILL MOVE
TO ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY NOON FRI...WEAKENING
TO 1012 MB. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE FRI AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO.

A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST MATTHEW
ISLAND WILL DEEPEN TO A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED OVER OUTER KOTZEBUE
SOUND BY 3 AM SAT...AND TO A 995 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES
NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY 9 PM SAT. THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS
OF THE GFS/NAM MODELS AND THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND DEPTH OF THE LOW CENTER. A STRONG COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BRING SHARPLY
COLDER AIR AND STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.

THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST...WHERE
SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY SAT EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. LESS SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND AT
LOWER LEVELS ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL BY 22-23 DEGREES CELSIUS BETWEEN 3 PM SAT AND 3 AM SUN. THIS
SHARP COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY EXTREMELY STRONG
PRESSURE RISES OF ABOUT 30 MB BETWEEN 3 PM SAT AND 9 AM SUN. THE
STRONGEST RATE OF PRESSURE RISE WILL BE SAT NIGHT...WITH AN
AVERAGE RATE OF RISE OF ABOUT 3 MB PER HOUR. THERE IS GOOD WIND
SUPPORT ALOFT...WITH WINDS BELOW 850 MB MAXING OUT AT 60-65 KT.
COLD ADVECTION...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND RAPID PRESSURE
RISES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SEVERE BLIZZARD WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS TO 65 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 80 MPH DEVELOPING SAT
EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME ON
SUN BUT STILL BE VERY STRONG. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST...BUT NOT BE AS SEVERE AS
ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WITH BLOWING
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ARCTIC COAST AND
INTERIOR ARCTIC SLOPE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...DIMINISHING OVER THE
WESTERN AREAS SUN. BLIZZARD WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST PACKAGE...AND NEW WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR ZONES 201-202-205.

OVER THE INTERIOR...THE EASTWARD MOVING FRONT AND THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG...BUT NOT
AS STRONG AS THAT EXPECTED ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OVER HIGHER SUMMITS SAT NIGHT. IN THE
FAIRBANKS AREA...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS
ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES CELSIUS SAT
NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A PRESSURE RISE OF ABOUT 20 MB. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR SAT EVENING. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED AS THE SHORT WAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. 925 MB WINDS MAX OUT AT
35-45 KT. MODELS RUNS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO WILL LIMIT MAXIMUM GUSTS TO AROUND
45 MPH.

ON THE WEST COAST...SNOW HAS ENDED IN ZONES 210-211 AND WILL
LIKELY END IN ZONE 209 IN A FEW HOURS. MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
THESE ZONES SATURDAY AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD...FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS FOR HEAVY SNOW CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 207-208-217.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

RF FEB 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 262249 AAA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
149 PM AKST THU FEB 26 2015

SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTING OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ALASKA AND A DEEP LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NW PACIFIC WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. A VERY
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE RIDGE SAT AND
SUN.

THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO FEEDING
INTO NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH EARLY SAT WITH CONDITIONS MUCH
WARMER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL. CONDITIONS WILL COOL BRIEFLY WITH
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BUT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK STRONGLY
WEST OF THE SHORT WAVE CUTTING OFF THE SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -4C IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR TO
-10 ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES
OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST TONIGHT THEN COOLING A
FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEST COAST FRI. SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION
WILL PUSH INTO THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR SAT AND SUN.

SURFACE...
A 1006 MB LOW 200 NM NORTH OF DEADHORSE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST
TONIGHT. A 1000 MB LOW 100 NM WEST OF CAPE LISBURNE WILL MOVE TO
100NM NE OF BARROW BY 3AM FRI...AND TO 100 NM NE OF BARTER ISLAND
BY 3PM FRI THEN CONTINUE EAST. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING
FROM NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND TO BARROW TO THE GULF OF ANADYR THAT
CONNECTS THESE LOWS WILL MOVE TO LIE OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND
BERING STRAIT FRI THEN MOVE BACK NORTH OVER THE NORTH SLOPE FRI
NIGHT AND SAT. EXPECT ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THIS FRONT
OVER THE NORTH SLOPE...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE WEST COAST EXCEPT
10-18 INCHES ALONG THE WEST COAST NORTH OF KOTZEBUE AND WEST OF
NOME. SNOW COULD MIX WITH RAIN TODAY AND FRI IN ZONE 213. IT
LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING REMAINDER OF AREA
THAT HAS PRECIPITATION SO THAT OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN AS SNOW.

A 1009 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA FRI AND
MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT AS A 1007 MB LOW BY 3AM SAT...AND TO
NEAR ANAKTUVUK PASS AS A 1003 MB LOW BY 3PM SAT...AND TO BANKS
ISLAND AS A 998 MB LOW BY 3AM SUN. A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH THIS
LOW WILL MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT TO SAINT PAUL ISLAND BY 3AM
SAT...TO DEADHORSE TO ANAKTUVUK PASS TO MCGRATH BY 3PM SAT...AND
TO BANKS ISLAND TO NORTHWAY BY 3AM SUN.

EXPECT 4-12 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS LOW AND FRONT ALONG THE WEST
COAST WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS NW OF NOME AND KOTZEBUE. EXPECT 4
INCHES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG WEST FACING
SLOPES. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT NW WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH THE
COLD FRONT CREATING BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE
WEST COAST/ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE. IN ZONE 204 THIS IS A
SET UP FOR A SEVERE BLIZZARD WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 70
MPH...AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN ZONE 203. EXPECT WEST WINDS 20 MPH
GUSTING 40 MPH IN THE INTERIOR WITH THE FRONT AND NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE TREE LINE.

DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AT 500 MB AND SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH
SUN. AT THE SURFACE SOLUTIONS ARE TOO WEAK WITH THE LOW OVER THE CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA AT 18Z...BUT ARE SIMILAR WITH MOVEMENTS THROUGH 3PM
FRI...THEN SEE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS AND ECMF MOVING THE
THE MAIN LOW CENTER FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN THE NAM. WILL
USE SLIGHTLY DEEPER SURFACE LOW SOLUTION THROUGH TONIGHT ON LOW
TRACKING NE ACROSS ARCTIC SLOPE SINCE MODELS ARE TOO WEAK WITH
THAT. FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION AFTER 3PM FRI WITH ITS FASTER AND
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER. ALL MODELS ARE FASTER WITH
MOVEMENT OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SAT/SUN. THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF THAT FEATURE OCCURING BUT
THE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY 6 HR EITHER SIDE OF WHAT GFS IS SHOWING.
SNOW AND WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF RAPIDLY WEST OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-
AKZ213-AKZ217.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205-
AKZ206.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

$$

JB FEB 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 262249 AAA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
149 PM AKST THU FEB 26 2015

SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTING OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ALASKA AND A DEEP LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NW PACIFIC WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. A VERY
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE RIDGE SAT AND
SUN.

THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO FEEDING
INTO NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH EARLY SAT WITH CONDITIONS MUCH
WARMER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL. CONDITIONS WILL COOL BRIEFLY WITH
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BUT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK STRONGLY
WEST OF THE SHORT WAVE CUTTING OFF THE SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -4C IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR TO
-10 ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES
OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST TONIGHT THEN COOLING A
FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEST COAST FRI. SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION
WILL PUSH INTO THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR SAT AND SUN.

SURFACE...
A 1006 MB LOW 200 NM NORTH OF DEADHORSE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST
TONIGHT. A 1000 MB LOW 100 NM WEST OF CAPE LISBURNE WILL MOVE TO
100NM NE OF BARROW BY 3AM FRI...AND TO 100 NM NE OF BARTER ISLAND
BY 3PM FRI THEN CONTINUE EAST. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING
FROM NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND TO BARROW TO THE GULF OF ANADYR THAT
CONNECTS THESE LOWS WILL MOVE TO LIE OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND
BERING STRAIT FRI THEN MOVE BACK NORTH OVER THE NORTH SLOPE FRI
NIGHT AND SAT. EXPECT ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THIS FRONT
OVER THE NORTH SLOPE...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE WEST COAST EXCEPT
10-18 INCHES ALONG THE WEST COAST NORTH OF KOTZEBUE AND WEST OF
NOME. SNOW COULD MIX WITH RAIN TODAY AND FRI IN ZONE 213. IT
LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING REMAINDER OF AREA
THAT HAS PRECIPITATION SO THAT OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN AS SNOW.

A 1009 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA FRI AND
MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT AS A 1007 MB LOW BY 3AM SAT...AND TO
NEAR ANAKTUVUK PASS AS A 1003 MB LOW BY 3PM SAT...AND TO BANKS
ISLAND AS A 998 MB LOW BY 3AM SUN. A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH THIS
LOW WILL MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT TO SAINT PAUL ISLAND BY 3AM
SAT...TO DEADHORSE TO ANAKTUVUK PASS TO MCGRATH BY 3PM SAT...AND
TO BANKS ISLAND TO NORTHWAY BY 3AM SUN.

EXPECT 4-12 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS LOW AND FRONT ALONG THE WEST
COAST WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS NW OF NOME AND KOTZEBUE. EXPECT 4
INCHES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG WEST FACING
SLOPES. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT NW WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH THE
COLD FRONT CREATING BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE
WEST COAST/ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE. IN ZONE 204 THIS IS A
SET UP FOR A SEVERE BLIZZARD WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 70
MPH...AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN ZONE 203. EXPECT WEST WINDS 20 MPH
GUSTING 40 MPH IN THE INTERIOR WITH THE FRONT AND NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE TREE LINE.

DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AT 500 MB AND SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH
SUN. AT THE SURFACE SOLUTIONS ARE TOO WEAK WITH THE LOW OVER THE CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA AT 18Z...BUT ARE SIMILAR WITH MOVEMENTS THROUGH 3PM
FRI...THEN SEE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS AND ECMF MOVING THE
THE MAIN LOW CENTER FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN THE NAM. WILL
USE SLIGHTLY DEEPER SURFACE LOW SOLUTION THROUGH TONIGHT ON LOW
TRACKING NE ACROSS ARCTIC SLOPE SINCE MODELS ARE TOO WEAK WITH
THAT. FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION AFTER 3PM FRI WITH ITS FASTER AND
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER. ALL MODELS ARE FASTER WITH
MOVEMENT OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SAT/SUN. THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF THAT FEATURE OCCURING BUT
THE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY 6 HR EITHER SIDE OF WHAT GFS IS SHOWING.
SNOW AND WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF RAPIDLY WEST OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-
AKZ213-AKZ217.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205-
AKZ206.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

$$

JB FEB 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 262249 AAA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
149 PM AKST THU FEB 26 2015

SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTING OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ALASKA AND A DEEP LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NW PACIFIC WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. A VERY
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE RIDGE SAT AND
SUN.

THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO FEEDING
INTO NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH EARLY SAT WITH CONDITIONS MUCH
WARMER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL. CONDITIONS WILL COOL BRIEFLY WITH
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BUT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK STRONGLY
WEST OF THE SHORT WAVE CUTTING OFF THE SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -4C IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR TO
-10 ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES
OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST TONIGHT THEN COOLING A
FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEST COAST FRI. SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION
WILL PUSH INTO THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR SAT AND SUN.

SURFACE...
A 1006 MB LOW 200 NM NORTH OF DEADHORSE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST
TONIGHT. A 1000 MB LOW 100 NM WEST OF CAPE LISBURNE WILL MOVE TO
100NM NE OF BARROW BY 3AM FRI...AND TO 100 NM NE OF BARTER ISLAND
BY 3PM FRI THEN CONTINUE EAST. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING
FROM NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND TO BARROW TO THE GULF OF ANADYR THAT
CONNECTS THESE LOWS WILL MOVE TO LIE OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND
BERING STRAIT FRI THEN MOVE BACK NORTH OVER THE NORTH SLOPE FRI
NIGHT AND SAT. EXPECT ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THIS FRONT
OVER THE NORTH SLOPE...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE WEST COAST EXCEPT
10-18 INCHES ALONG THE WEST COAST NORTH OF KOTZEBUE AND WEST OF
NOME. SNOW COULD MIX WITH RAIN TODAY AND FRI IN ZONE 213. IT
LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING REMAINDER OF AREA
THAT HAS PRECIPITATION SO THAT OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN AS SNOW.

A 1009 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA FRI AND
MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT AS A 1007 MB LOW BY 3AM SAT...AND TO
NEAR ANAKTUVUK PASS AS A 1003 MB LOW BY 3PM SAT...AND TO BANKS
ISLAND AS A 998 MB LOW BY 3AM SUN. A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH THIS
LOW WILL MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT TO SAINT PAUL ISLAND BY 3AM
SAT...TO DEADHORSE TO ANAKTUVUK PASS TO MCGRATH BY 3PM SAT...AND
TO BANKS ISLAND TO NORTHWAY BY 3AM SUN.

EXPECT 4-12 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS LOW AND FRONT ALONG THE WEST
COAST WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS NW OF NOME AND KOTZEBUE. EXPECT 4
INCHES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG WEST FACING
SLOPES. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT NW WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH THE
COLD FRONT CREATING BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE
WEST COAST/ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE. IN ZONE 204 THIS IS A
SET UP FOR A SEVERE BLIZZARD WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 70
MPH...AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN ZONE 203. EXPECT WEST WINDS 20 MPH
GUSTING 40 MPH IN THE INTERIOR WITH THE FRONT AND NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE TREE LINE.

DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AT 500 MB AND SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH
SUN. AT THE SURFACE SOLUTIONS ARE TOO WEAK WITH THE LOW OVER THE CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA AT 18Z...BUT ARE SIMILAR WITH MOVEMENTS THROUGH 3PM
FRI...THEN SEE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS AND ECMF MOVING THE
THE MAIN LOW CENTER FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN THE NAM. WILL
USE SLIGHTLY DEEPER SURFACE LOW SOLUTION THROUGH TONIGHT ON LOW
TRACKING NE ACROSS ARCTIC SLOPE SINCE MODELS ARE TOO WEAK WITH
THAT. FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION AFTER 3PM FRI WITH ITS FASTER AND
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER. ALL MODELS ARE FASTER WITH
MOVEMENT OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SAT/SUN. THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF THAT FEATURE OCCURING BUT
THE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY 6 HR EITHER SIDE OF WHAT GFS IS SHOWING.
SNOW AND WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF RAPIDLY WEST OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-
AKZ213-AKZ217.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205-
AKZ206.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

$$

JB FEB 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 262249 AAA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
149 PM AKST THU FEB 26 2015

SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTING OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ALASKA AND A DEEP LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NW PACIFIC WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. A VERY
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE RIDGE SAT AND
SUN.

THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO FEEDING
INTO NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH EARLY SAT WITH CONDITIONS MUCH
WARMER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL. CONDITIONS WILL COOL BRIEFLY WITH
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BUT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK STRONGLY
WEST OF THE SHORT WAVE CUTTING OFF THE SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -4C IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR TO
-10 ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES
OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST TONIGHT THEN COOLING A
FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEST COAST FRI. SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION
WILL PUSH INTO THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR SAT AND SUN.

SURFACE...
A 1006 MB LOW 200 NM NORTH OF DEADHORSE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST
TONIGHT. A 1000 MB LOW 100 NM WEST OF CAPE LISBURNE WILL MOVE TO
100NM NE OF BARROW BY 3AM FRI...AND TO 100 NM NE OF BARTER ISLAND
BY 3PM FRI THEN CONTINUE EAST. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING
FROM NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND TO BARROW TO THE GULF OF ANADYR THAT
CONNECTS THESE LOWS WILL MOVE TO LIE OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND
BERING STRAIT FRI THEN MOVE BACK NORTH OVER THE NORTH SLOPE FRI
NIGHT AND SAT. EXPECT ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THIS FRONT
OVER THE NORTH SLOPE...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE WEST COAST EXCEPT
10-18 INCHES ALONG THE WEST COAST NORTH OF KOTZEBUE AND WEST OF
NOME. SNOW COULD MIX WITH RAIN TODAY AND FRI IN ZONE 213. IT
LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING REMAINDER OF AREA
THAT HAS PRECIPITATION SO THAT OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN AS SNOW.

A 1009 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA FRI AND
MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT AS A 1007 MB LOW BY 3AM SAT...AND TO
NEAR ANAKTUVUK PASS AS A 1003 MB LOW BY 3PM SAT...AND TO BANKS
ISLAND AS A 998 MB LOW BY 3AM SUN. A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH THIS
LOW WILL MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT TO SAINT PAUL ISLAND BY 3AM
SAT...TO DEADHORSE TO ANAKTUVUK PASS TO MCGRATH BY 3PM SAT...AND
TO BANKS ISLAND TO NORTHWAY BY 3AM SUN.

EXPECT 4-12 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS LOW AND FRONT ALONG THE WEST
COAST WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS NW OF NOME AND KOTZEBUE. EXPECT 4
INCHES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG WEST FACING
SLOPES. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT NW WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH THE
COLD FRONT CREATING BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE
WEST COAST/ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE. IN ZONE 204 THIS IS A
SET UP FOR A SEVERE BLIZZARD WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 70
MPH...AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN ZONE 203. EXPECT WEST WINDS 20 MPH
GUSTING 40 MPH IN THE INTERIOR WITH THE FRONT AND NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE TREE LINE.

DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AT 500 MB AND SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH
SUN. AT THE SURFACE SOLUTIONS ARE TOO WEAK WITH THE LOW OVER THE CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA AT 18Z...BUT ARE SIMILAR WITH MOVEMENTS THROUGH 3PM
FRI...THEN SEE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS AND ECMF MOVING THE
THE MAIN LOW CENTER FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN THE NAM. WILL
USE SLIGHTLY DEEPER SURFACE LOW SOLUTION THROUGH TONIGHT ON LOW
TRACKING NE ACROSS ARCTIC SLOPE SINCE MODELS ARE TOO WEAK WITH
THAT. FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION AFTER 3PM FRI WITH ITS FASTER AND
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER. ALL MODELS ARE FASTER WITH
MOVEMENT OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SAT/SUN. THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF THAT FEATURE OCCURING BUT
THE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY 6 HR EITHER SIDE OF WHAT GFS IS SHOWING.
SNOW AND WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF RAPIDLY WEST OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-
AKZ213-AKZ217.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205-
AKZ206.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

$$

JB FEB 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 262239
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
139 PM AKST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTING OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ALASKA AND A DEEP LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NW PACIFIC WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. A VERY
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE RIDGE SAT AND
SUN.

THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO FEEDING
INTO NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH EARLY SAT WITH CONDITIONS MUCH
WARMER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL. CONDITIONS WILL COOL BRIEFLY WITH
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BUT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD STRONGLY WEST OF
THE SHORT WAVE CUTTING OFF THE SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -4C IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR TO
-10 ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES
OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST TONIGHT THEN COOLING A
FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEST COAST FRI. SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION
WILL PUSH INTO THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR SAT AND

SURFACE...
A 1006 MB LOW 200 NM NORTH OF DEADHORSE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST
TONIGHT. A 1000 MB LOW 100 NM WEST OF CAPE LISBURNE WILL MOVE TO
100NM NE OF BARROW BY 3AM FRI...AND TO 100 NM NE OF BARTER ISLAND
BY 3PM FRI THEN CONTINUE EAST. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING
FROM NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND TO BARROW TO THE GULF OF ANADYR THAT
CONNECTS THESE LOWS WILL MOVE TO LIE OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND
BERING STRAIT FRI THEN MOVE BACK NORTH OVER THE NORTH SLOPE FRI
NIGHT AND SAT. EXPECT ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THIS FRONT
OVER THE NORTH SLOPE...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE WEST COAST EXCEPT
10-18 INCHES ALONG THE WEST COAST NORTH OF KOTZEBUE AND WEST OF
NOME. SNOW COULD MIX WITH RAIN TODAY AND FRI IN ZONE 213 BUT LOOKS
LIKE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING REMAINDER OF AREA THAT
SEE PRECIPITATION.

A 1009 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA FRI AND
MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT AS A 1009 MB LOW BY 3AM SAT...AND TO
NEAR ANAKTUVUK PASS AS A 1003 MB LOW BY 3PM SAT...AND TO BANKS
ISLAND AS A 998 MB LOW BY 3AM SUN. A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH THIS
LOW WILL MOVE TO FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO SAINT PAUL ISLAND BY
3AM SAT...TO DEADHORSE TO ANAKTUVUK PASS TO MCGRATH BY 3PM
SAT...AND TO BANKS ISLAND TO NORTHWAY BY 3AM SUN.

EXPECT 4-12 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS LOW AND FRONT ALONG THE WEST
COAST WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS NW OF NOME AND KOTZEBUE. EXPECT 4
INCHES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG WEST FACING
SLOPES. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT NW WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH THE
COLD FRONT CREATING BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE
WEST COAST/ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE. IN ZONE 204 THIS IS A
SET UP FOR A SEVERE BLIZZARD WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 70
MPH...AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN ZONE 203. EXPECT WEST WINDS 20 MPH
GUSTING 40 MPH IN THE INTERIOR WITH THE FRONT AND NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE TREE LINE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AT 500 MB AND SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH
SUN. AT THE SURFACE SOLUTIONS ARE TOO WEAK WITH LOW CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA AT 18Z...BUT ARE SIMILAR WITH MOVEMENTS THROUGH 3PM
FRI...THEN SEE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS AND ECMF MOVING THE
THE MAIN LOW CENTER FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN THE NAM. WILL
USE SLIGHTLY DEEPER SURFACE LOW SOLUTION THROUGH TONIGHT ON LOW
TRACKING NE ACROSS ARCTIC SLOPE SINCE MODELS ARE TOO WEAK WITH
THAT. FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION AFTER 3PM FRI WITH ITS FASTER AND
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER. ALL MODELS ARE FASTER WITH
MOVEMENT OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SAT/SUN. THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF THAT FEATURE OCCURING BUT
THE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY 6 HR EITHER SIDE OF WHAT GFS IS SHOWING.
SNOW AND WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF RAPIDLY WEST OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-
AKZ213-AKZ217.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205-
AKZ206.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

$$

JB FEB 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 261524 AAA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
624 AM AKST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
06Z GFS AND NAM MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE 00Z RUNS
ON THE HANDLING OF THE THIRD SURFACE LOW CENTER AND ITS ASSOCIATED
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD
OF SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...WITH A SOMEWHAT LESS SEVERE BLIZZARD OVER
THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST.

UPPER AIR...
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE EASTWARD...TO EXTEND ALONG THE ALCAN
BORDER AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY FRI EVENING. THE
RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED OUT FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS A STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW
EXTENDS FROM THE NECK OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE
ALASKA WEST COAST BY SAT MORNING...AND TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY LATE
SAT NIGHT. STRONG RIDGING WILL REBUILD OVER NORTHERN ALASKA SUN
INTO MON AFTER THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS. A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ALASKA
COASTAL AREAS WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ALASKA
INTERIOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD.

THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN ALASKA
SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH SAT....AND
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE THE WEST COAST AND
NORTHWEST INTERIOR THROUGH FRI MORNING.

SURFACE...
A 997 MB LOW 600 MILES NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND WILL MOVE TO
300 MILES NORTH OF BANKS ISLAND BY THU AFTERNOON WEAKENING
TO 1000 MB. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA.

A 1002 MB LOW NEAR THE GULF OF ANADYR WILL MOVE TO 50 MILES
NORTH OF BARROW BY MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT AS A 1008 MB LOW...
AND TO ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY LATE
FRI MORNING AS A 1010 MB LOW.

THE SECOND LOW CENTER AND THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS TO PARTS OF THE WEST COAST AND THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET ARE
EXPECTED IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND UP TO 1
FOOT IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA.

CURRENT GFS/NAM INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF A THIRD LOW DEVELOPING
AROUND 3 AM FRI...NAM/GFS AVERAGE GIVES A 1009 MB CENTER NEAR
59N/170W AT 3 AM FRI. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN TO A 1005 MB CENTER
ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY 3 AM SAT. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ARCTIC SLOPE AND INTO
THE BEAUFORT SEA THROUGH 3 AM SAT...PROGGED POSITION FOR 3 AM SAT
IS ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MAINLAND SAT INTO SAT EVENING. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...
SHARP COLD ADVECTION...AND RAPID PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ON THE ARCTIC COAST... AND
GUSTY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST SAT NIGHT...AND
SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN. OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50-60
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH WILL BE LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING. IT IS TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME TO PUT UP INITIAL
BLIZZARD WATCHES FOR THIS SECTION OF THE ARCTIC COAST...BUT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WITH SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE EASTWARD MOVING FRONT. IN THE
PAST...SIMILAR EVENTS HAVE PRODUCED PEAK WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 TO 50 MPH IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA. CURRENT GFS TIME SERIES FOR
FAIRBANKS SHOWS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE FALLING FROM -1C TO -11C
BETWEEN 9 PM SUN AND 4 AM MON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY...HEAVIEST ON WEST FACING
SLOPES. OVER HIGHER SUMMITS...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH WEST
WINDS TO 40-50 MPH. LOWER ELEVATION AREAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW. BASED ON CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...AM LOOKING FOR THE WINDS
TO BEGIN TO INCREASE RAPIDLY EARLY SAT EVENING. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR BETWEEN AROUND 6 PM SAT AND 3 AM SUN
WITH THE COLD ADVECTION AND A SEA LEVEL PRESSURE RISE OF AROUND 16
MB DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. THIS ALSO COINCIDES WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-
AKZ213-AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

$$

RF FEB 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 261524 AAA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
624 AM AKST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
06Z GFS AND NAM MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE 00Z RUNS
ON THE HANDLING OF THE THIRD SURFACE LOW CENTER AND ITS ASSOCIATED
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD
OF SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...WITH A SOMEWHAT LESS SEVERE BLIZZARD OVER
THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST.

UPPER AIR...
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE EASTWARD...TO EXTEND ALONG THE ALCAN
BORDER AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY FRI EVENING. THE
RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED OUT FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS A STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW
EXTENDS FROM THE NECK OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE
ALASKA WEST COAST BY SAT MORNING...AND TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY LATE
SAT NIGHT. STRONG RIDGING WILL REBUILD OVER NORTHERN ALASKA SUN
INTO MON AFTER THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS. A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ALASKA
COASTAL AREAS WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ALASKA
INTERIOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD.

THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN ALASKA
SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH SAT....AND
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE THE WEST COAST AND
NORTHWEST INTERIOR THROUGH FRI MORNING.

SURFACE...
A 997 MB LOW 600 MILES NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND WILL MOVE TO
300 MILES NORTH OF BANKS ISLAND BY THU AFTERNOON WEAKENING
TO 1000 MB. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA.

A 1002 MB LOW NEAR THE GULF OF ANADYR WILL MOVE TO 50 MILES
NORTH OF BARROW BY MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT AS A 1008 MB LOW...
AND TO ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY LATE
FRI MORNING AS A 1010 MB LOW.

THE SECOND LOW CENTER AND THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS TO PARTS OF THE WEST COAST AND THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET ARE
EXPECTED IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND UP TO 1
FOOT IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA.

CURRENT GFS/NAM INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF A THIRD LOW DEVELOPING
AROUND 3 AM FRI...NAM/GFS AVERAGE GIVES A 1009 MB CENTER NEAR
59N/170W AT 3 AM FRI. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN TO A 1005 MB CENTER
ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY 3 AM SAT. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ARCTIC SLOPE AND INTO
THE BEAUFORT SEA THROUGH 3 AM SAT...PROGGED POSITION FOR 3 AM SAT
IS ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MAINLAND SAT INTO SAT EVENING. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...
SHARP COLD ADVECTION...AND RAPID PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ON THE ARCTIC COAST... AND
GUSTY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST SAT NIGHT...AND
SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN. OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50-60
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH WILL BE LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING. IT IS TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME TO PUT UP INITIAL
BLIZZARD WATCHES FOR THIS SECTION OF THE ARCTIC COAST...BUT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WITH SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE EASTWARD MOVING FRONT. IN THE
PAST...SIMILAR EVENTS HAVE PRODUCED PEAK WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 TO 50 MPH IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA. CURRENT GFS TIME SERIES FOR
FAIRBANKS SHOWS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE FALLING FROM -1C TO -11C
BETWEEN 9 PM SUN AND 4 AM MON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY...HEAVIEST ON WEST FACING
SLOPES. OVER HIGHER SUMMITS...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH WEST
WINDS TO 40-50 MPH. LOWER ELEVATION AREAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW. BASED ON CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...AM LOOKING FOR THE WINDS
TO BEGIN TO INCREASE RAPIDLY EARLY SAT EVENING. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR BETWEEN AROUND 6 PM SAT AND 3 AM SUN
WITH THE COLD ADVECTION AND A SEA LEVEL PRESSURE RISE OF AROUND 16
MB DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. THIS ALSO COINCIDES WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-
AKZ213-AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

$$

RF FEB 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 261520
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
620 AM AKST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
06Z GFS AND NAM MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE 00Z RUNS
ON THE HANDLING OF THE THIRD SURFACE LOW CENTER AND ITS ASSOCIATED
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD
OF SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...WITH A SOMEWHAT LESS SEVERE BLIZZARD OVER
THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST.

UPPER AIR...
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE EASTWARD...TO EXTEND ALONG THE ALCAN
BORDER AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY FRI EVENING. THE
RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED OUT FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS A STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW
EXTENDS FROM THE NECK OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE
ALASKA WEST COAST BY SAT MORNING...AND TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY LATE
SAT NIGHT. STRONG RIDGING WILL REBUILD OVER NORTHERN ALASKA SUN
INTO MON AFTER THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS. A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ALASKA
COASTAL AREAS WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ALASKA
INTERIOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD.

THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN ALASKA
SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH SAT....AND
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE THE WEST COAST AND
NORTHWEST INTERIOR THROUGH FRI MORNING.

SURFACE...
A 997 MB LOW 600 MILES NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND WILL MOVE TO
300 MILES NORTH OF BANKS ISLAND BY THU AFTERNOON WEAKENING
TO 1000 MB. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA.

A 1002 MB LOW NEAR THE GULF OF ANADYR WILL MOVE TO 50 MILES
NORTH OF BARROW BY MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT AS A 1008 MB LOW...
AND TO ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY LATE
FRI MORNING AS A 1010 MB LOW.

THE SECOND LOW CENTER AND THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS TO PARTS OF THE WEST COAST AND THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET ARE
EXPECTED IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND UP TO 1
FOOT IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA.

CURRENT GFS/NAM INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF A THIRD LOW DEVELOPING
AROUND 3 AM FRI...NAM/GFS AVERAGE GIVES A 1009 MB CENTER NEAR
59N/170W AT 3 AM FRI. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN TO A 1005 MB CENTER
ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY 3 AM SAT. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ARCTIC SLOPE AND INTO
THE BEAUFORT SEA THROUGH 3 AM SAT...PROGGED POSITION FOR 3 AM SAT
IS ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MAINLAND SAT INTO SAT EVENING. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...
SHARP COLD ADVECTION...AND RAPID PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ON THE ARCTIC COAST... AND
GUSTY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST SAT NIGHT...AND
SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN. OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50-60
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH WILL BE LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING. IT IS TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME TO PUT UP INITIAL
BLIZZARD WATCHES FOR THIS SECTION OF THE ARCTIC COAST...BUT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WITH SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE EASTWARD MOVING FRONT. IN THE
PAST...SIMILAR EVENTS HAVE PRODUCED PEAK WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 TO 50 MPH IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA. CURRENT GFS TIME SERIES FOR
FAIRBANKS SHOWS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE FALLING FROM -1C TO -11C
BETWEEN 9 PM SUN AND 4 AM MON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY...HEAVIEST ON WEST FACING
SLOPES. OVER HIGHER SUMMITS...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH WEST
WINDS TO 40-50 MPH. LOWER ELEVATION AREAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW. BASED ON CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...AM LOOKING FOR THE WINDS
TO BEGIN TO INCREASE RAPIDLY EARLY SAT EVENING. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR BETWEEN AROUND 6 PM SAT AND 3 AM SUN
WITH THE COLD ADVECTION AND A SEA LEVEL PRESSURE RISE OF AROUND 16
MB DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. THIS ALSO COINCIDES WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-
AKZ213-AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

$$

FEB 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 261520
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
620 AM AKST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
06Z GFS AND NAM MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE 00Z RUNS
ON THE HANDLING OF THE THIRD SURFACE LOW CENTER AND ITS ASSOCIATED
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD
OF SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...WITH A SOMEWHAT LESS SEVERE BLIZZARD OVER
THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST.

UPPER AIR...
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE EASTWARD...TO EXTEND ALONG THE ALCAN
BORDER AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY FRI EVENING. THE
RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED OUT FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS A STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW
EXTENDS FROM THE NECK OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE
ALASKA WEST COAST BY SAT MORNING...AND TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY LATE
SAT NIGHT. STRONG RIDGING WILL REBUILD OVER NORTHERN ALASKA SUN
INTO MON AFTER THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS. A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ALASKA
COASTAL AREAS WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ALASKA
INTERIOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD.

THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN ALASKA
SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH SAT....AND
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE THE WEST COAST AND
NORTHWEST INTERIOR THROUGH FRI MORNING.

SURFACE...
A 997 MB LOW 600 MILES NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND WILL MOVE TO
300 MILES NORTH OF BANKS ISLAND BY THU AFTERNOON WEAKENING
TO 1000 MB. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA.

A 1002 MB LOW NEAR THE GULF OF ANADYR WILL MOVE TO 50 MILES
NORTH OF BARROW BY MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT AS A 1008 MB LOW...
AND TO ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY LATE
FRI MORNING AS A 1010 MB LOW.

THE SECOND LOW CENTER AND THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS TO PARTS OF THE WEST COAST AND THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET ARE
EXPECTED IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND UP TO 1
FOOT IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA.

CURRENT GFS/NAM INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF A THIRD LOW DEVELOPING
AROUND 3 AM FRI...NAM/GFS AVERAGE GIVES A 1009 MB CENTER NEAR
59N/170W AT 3 AM FRI. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN TO A 1005 MB CENTER
ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY 3 AM SAT. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ARCTIC SLOPE AND INTO
THE BEAUFORT SEA THROUGH 3 AM SAT...PROGGED POSITION FOR 3 AM SAT
IS ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MAINLAND SAT INTO SAT EVENING. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...
SHARP COLD ADVECTION...AND RAPID PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ON THE ARCTIC COAST... AND
GUSTY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST SAT NIGHT...AND
SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN. OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50-60
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH WILL BE LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING. IT IS TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME TO PUT UP INITIAL
BLIZZARD WATCHES FOR THIS SECTION OF THE ARCTIC COAST...BUT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WITH SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE EASTWARD MOVING FRONT. IN THE
PAST...SIMILAR EVENTS HAVE PRODUCED PEAK WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 TO 50 MPH IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA. CURRENT GFS TIME SERIES FOR
FAIRBANKS SHOWS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE FALLING FROM -1C TO -11C
BETWEEN 9 PM SUN AND 4 AM MON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY...HEAVIEST ON WEST FACING
SLOPES. OVER HIGHER SUMMITS...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH WEST
WINDS TO 40-50 MPH. LOWER ELEVATION AREAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW. BASED ON CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...AM LOOKING FOR THE WINDS
TO BEGIN TO INCREASE RAPIDLY EARLY SAT EVENING. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR BETWEEN AROUND 6 PM SAT AND 3 AM SUN
WITH THE COLD ADVECTION AND A SEA LEVEL PRESSURE RISE OF AROUND 16
MB DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. THIS ALSO COINCIDES WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-
AKZ213-AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

$$

FEB 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 261154
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
254 AM AKST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE EASTWARD...TO EXTEND ALONG THE ALCAN
BORDER AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY FRI EVENING. THE
RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED OUT FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS A STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW
EXTENDS FROM THE NECK OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE
ALASKA WEST COAST BY SAT MORNING...AND TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY LATE
SAT NIGHT. STRONG RIDGING WILL REBUILD OVER NORTHERN ALASKA SUN
INTO MON AFTER THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS. A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ALASKA
COASTAL AREAS WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ALASKA
INTERIOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD.

THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN ALASKA
SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH SAT....AND
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE THE WEST COAST AND
NORTHWEST INTERIOR THROUGH FRI MORNING.

SURFACE...
A 997 MB LOW 600 MILES NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND WILL MOVE TO
300 MILES NORTH OF BANKS ISLAND BY THU AFTERNOON WEAKENING
TO 1000 MB. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA.

A 1002 MB LOW NEAR THE GULF OF ANADYR WILL MOVE TO 50 MILES
NORTH OF BARROW BY MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT AS A 1008 MB LOW...
AND TO ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY LATE
FRI MORNING AS A 1010 MB LOW.

THE SECOND LOW CENTER AND THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS TO PARTS OF THE WEST COAST AND THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET ARE
EXPECTED IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND UP TO 1
FOOT IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA.

CURRENT GFS/NAM INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF A THIRD LOW DEVELOPING
AROUND 3 AM FRI...NAM/GFS AVERAGE GIVES A 1009 MB CENTER NEAR
59N/170W AT 3 AM FRI. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN TO A 1005 MB CENTER
ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY 3 AM SAT. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ARCTIC SLOPE AND INTO
THE BEAUFORT SEA THROUGH 3 AM SAT...PROGGED POSITION FOR 3 AM SAT
IS ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MAINLAND SAT INTO SAT EVENING. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...
SHARP COLD ADVECTION...AND RAPID PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ON THE ARCTIC COAST... AND
GUSTY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST SAT NIGHT...AND
SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN. OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50-60
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. IT
IS TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME TO PUT UP INITIAL BLIZZARD WATCHES FOR
THIS SECTION OF THE ARCTIC COAST...BUT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY
THE EASTWARD MOVING FRONT. IN THE PAST...SIMILAR EVENTS HAVE
PRODUCED PEAK WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 TO 50 MPH IN THE FAIRBANKS
AREA. LOW VISIBILITY IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY OCCUR ON HIGHER
SUMMITS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-
AKZ213-AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

RF FEB 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 261154
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
254 AM AKST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE EASTWARD...TO EXTEND ALONG THE ALCAN
BORDER AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY FRI EVENING. THE
RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED OUT FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS A STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW
EXTENDS FROM THE NECK OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE
ALASKA WEST COAST BY SAT MORNING...AND TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY LATE
SAT NIGHT. STRONG RIDGING WILL REBUILD OVER NORTHERN ALASKA SUN
INTO MON AFTER THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS. A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ALASKA
COASTAL AREAS WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ALASKA
INTERIOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD.

THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN ALASKA
SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH SAT....AND
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE THE WEST COAST AND
NORTHWEST INTERIOR THROUGH FRI MORNING.

SURFACE...
A 997 MB LOW 600 MILES NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND WILL MOVE TO
300 MILES NORTH OF BANKS ISLAND BY THU AFTERNOON WEAKENING
TO 1000 MB. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA.

A 1002 MB LOW NEAR THE GULF OF ANADYR WILL MOVE TO 50 MILES
NORTH OF BARROW BY MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT AS A 1008 MB LOW...
AND TO ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY LATE
FRI MORNING AS A 1010 MB LOW.

THE SECOND LOW CENTER AND THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS TO PARTS OF THE WEST COAST AND THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET ARE
EXPECTED IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND UP TO 1
FOOT IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA.

CURRENT GFS/NAM INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF A THIRD LOW DEVELOPING
AROUND 3 AM FRI...NAM/GFS AVERAGE GIVES A 1009 MB CENTER NEAR
59N/170W AT 3 AM FRI. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN TO A 1005 MB CENTER
ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY 3 AM SAT. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ARCTIC SLOPE AND INTO
THE BEAUFORT SEA THROUGH 3 AM SAT...PROGGED POSITION FOR 3 AM SAT
IS ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MAINLAND SAT INTO SAT EVENING. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...
SHARP COLD ADVECTION...AND RAPID PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ON THE ARCTIC COAST... AND
GUSTY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST SAT NIGHT...AND
SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN. OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50-60
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. IT
IS TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME TO PUT UP INITIAL BLIZZARD WATCHES FOR
THIS SECTION OF THE ARCTIC COAST...BUT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY
THE EASTWARD MOVING FRONT. IN THE PAST...SIMILAR EVENTS HAVE
PRODUCED PEAK WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 TO 50 MPH IN THE FAIRBANKS
AREA. LOW VISIBILITY IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY OCCUR ON HIGHER
SUMMITS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-
AKZ213-AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

RF FEB 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 261154
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
254 AM AKST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE EASTWARD...TO EXTEND ALONG THE ALCAN
BORDER AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY FRI EVENING. THE
RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED OUT FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS A STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW
EXTENDS FROM THE NECK OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE
ALASKA WEST COAST BY SAT MORNING...AND TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY LATE
SAT NIGHT. STRONG RIDGING WILL REBUILD OVER NORTHERN ALASKA SUN
INTO MON AFTER THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS. A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ALASKA
COASTAL AREAS WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ALASKA
INTERIOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD.

THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN ALASKA
SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH SAT....AND
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE THE WEST COAST AND
NORTHWEST INTERIOR THROUGH FRI MORNING.

SURFACE...
A 997 MB LOW 600 MILES NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND WILL MOVE TO
300 MILES NORTH OF BANKS ISLAND BY THU AFTERNOON WEAKENING
TO 1000 MB. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA.

A 1002 MB LOW NEAR THE GULF OF ANADYR WILL MOVE TO 50 MILES
NORTH OF BARROW BY MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT AS A 1008 MB LOW...
AND TO ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY LATE
FRI MORNING AS A 1010 MB LOW.

THE SECOND LOW CENTER AND THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS TO PARTS OF THE WEST COAST AND THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET ARE
EXPECTED IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND UP TO 1
FOOT IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA.

CURRENT GFS/NAM INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF A THIRD LOW DEVELOPING
AROUND 3 AM FRI...NAM/GFS AVERAGE GIVES A 1009 MB CENTER NEAR
59N/170W AT 3 AM FRI. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN TO A 1005 MB CENTER
ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY 3 AM SAT. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ARCTIC SLOPE AND INTO
THE BEAUFORT SEA THROUGH 3 AM SAT...PROGGED POSITION FOR 3 AM SAT
IS ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MAINLAND SAT INTO SAT EVENING. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...
SHARP COLD ADVECTION...AND RAPID PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ON THE ARCTIC COAST... AND
GUSTY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST SAT NIGHT...AND
SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN. OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50-60
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. IT
IS TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME TO PUT UP INITIAL BLIZZARD WATCHES FOR
THIS SECTION OF THE ARCTIC COAST...BUT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY
THE EASTWARD MOVING FRONT. IN THE PAST...SIMILAR EVENTS HAVE
PRODUCED PEAK WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 TO 50 MPH IN THE FAIRBANKS
AREA. LOW VISIBILITY IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY OCCUR ON HIGHER
SUMMITS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-
AKZ213-AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

RF FEB 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 261154
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
254 AM AKST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE EASTWARD...TO EXTEND ALONG THE ALCAN
BORDER AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY FRI EVENING. THE
RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED OUT FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS A STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW
EXTENDS FROM THE NECK OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE
ALASKA WEST COAST BY SAT MORNING...AND TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY LATE
SAT NIGHT. STRONG RIDGING WILL REBUILD OVER NORTHERN ALASKA SUN
INTO MON AFTER THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS. A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ALASKA
COASTAL AREAS WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ALASKA
INTERIOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD.

THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN ALASKA
SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH SAT....AND
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE THE WEST COAST AND
NORTHWEST INTERIOR THROUGH FRI MORNING.

SURFACE...
A 997 MB LOW 600 MILES NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND WILL MOVE TO
300 MILES NORTH OF BANKS ISLAND BY THU AFTERNOON WEAKENING
TO 1000 MB. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA.

A 1002 MB LOW NEAR THE GULF OF ANADYR WILL MOVE TO 50 MILES
NORTH OF BARROW BY MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT AS A 1008 MB LOW...
AND TO ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY LATE
FRI MORNING AS A 1010 MB LOW.

THE SECOND LOW CENTER AND THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS TO PARTS OF THE WEST COAST AND THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET ARE
EXPECTED IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND UP TO 1
FOOT IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA.

CURRENT GFS/NAM INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF A THIRD LOW DEVELOPING
AROUND 3 AM FRI...NAM/GFS AVERAGE GIVES A 1009 MB CENTER NEAR
59N/170W AT 3 AM FRI. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN TO A 1005 MB CENTER
ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY 3 AM SAT. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ARCTIC SLOPE AND INTO
THE BEAUFORT SEA THROUGH 3 AM SAT...PROGGED POSITION FOR 3 AM SAT
IS ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MAINLAND SAT INTO SAT EVENING. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...
SHARP COLD ADVECTION...AND RAPID PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ON THE ARCTIC COAST... AND
GUSTY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST SAT NIGHT...AND
SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN. OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50-60
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. IT
IS TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME TO PUT UP INITIAL BLIZZARD WATCHES FOR
THIS SECTION OF THE ARCTIC COAST...BUT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY
THE EASTWARD MOVING FRONT. IN THE PAST...SIMILAR EVENTS HAVE
PRODUCED PEAK WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 TO 50 MPH IN THE FAIRBANKS
AREA. LOW VISIBILITY IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY OCCUR ON HIGHER
SUMMITS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-
AKZ213-AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

RF FEB 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 252216
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
116 PM AKST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...A VERY STRONG LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
AND ALASKA WILL BUILD THROUGH FRI AND THEN PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS CAUSING MOIST SW FLOW ACROSS
THE BERING SEA INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA NOW WHICH WILL
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN ALASKA OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE RIDGE.

THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP NORTHERN ALASKA MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH SAT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH WETTER THAN NORMAL IN WESTERN
ALASKA AND FROM THE BROOKS RANGE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
THEN BECOME WETTER OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR SAT INTO SUN.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -10C TO -15C. TEMPERATURES OVER THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST RISE TO -4C THU...AND TO 0C OVER
THE ALASKA RANGE FRI.

SURFACE...
A 998 MB LOW 300 NM NORTH OF BARROW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND
WEAKEN. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THIS LOW TO BARROW THE GULF
OF ANADYR WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THU THEN MOVE TO
LIE OVER THE BROOKS RANGE TO THE BERING STRAIT FRI. WILL
SEE 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE FRONT MANY AREAS ALONG WEST
COAST...WITH UP TO 2 FT IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN BROOKS
RANGE AND SEWARD PENINSULA. EXPECT 2-4 INCHES SNOW THRU FRI NORTH
OF THE BROOKS RANGE.

A 1002 MB LOW ALONG THIS FRONT IN THE GULF OF ANADYR WILL MOVE TO
150 NM NW OF BARROW BY 3AM THU...AND TO 300 NM NORTH OF BARTER
ISLAND BY 3PM THU THEN CONTINUE NE. A 992 MB LOW IN THE WESTERN
BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO NEAR ANADYR AS A 1002 MB LOW BY 3AM
THU...TO NEAR CAPE LISBURNE AS A 1008 MB LOW BY 3PM THU...TO 80 NM
NORTH OF DEADHORSE AS A 1010 MB LOW BY 3AM FRI...AND TO MACKENZIE
BAY LATE FRI. WILL SEE SOUTH WINDS 30G40KT WITH LOW VSBY IN
BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE FIRST AND SECOND
LOWS. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW IN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THESE LOWS SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE AS WELL.

A THIRD LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THU NIGHT WILL
MOVE TO 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL AS A 1003 MB LOW BY 4PM
FRI...AND TO WAINWRIGHT AS A 996 MB LOW BY 3PM SAT. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE WEST
COAST OF ALASKA FRI NIGHT...AND THEN SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA SAT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR VERY STRONG NW WINDS AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THIS THIRD LOW BUT IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO HAVE ANY
CONFIDENCE ON THIS HAPPENING.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR OF ALASKA WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRI. THESE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS GENERALLY CLEAR IN THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR WITH PATCHY MORNING FOG.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-
AKZ213-AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ205.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

JB FEB 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 252216
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
116 PM AKST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...A VERY STRONG LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
AND ALASKA WILL BUILD THROUGH FRI AND THEN PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS CAUSING MOIST SW FLOW ACROSS
THE BERING SEA INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA NOW WHICH WILL
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN ALASKA OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE RIDGE.

THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP NORTHERN ALASKA MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH SAT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH WETTER THAN NORMAL IN WESTERN
ALASKA AND FROM THE BROOKS RANGE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
THEN BECOME WETTER OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR SAT INTO SUN.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -10C TO -15C. TEMPERATURES OVER THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST RISE TO -4C THU...AND TO 0C OVER
THE ALASKA RANGE FRI.

SURFACE...
A 998 MB LOW 300 NM NORTH OF BARROW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND
WEAKEN. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THIS LOW TO BARROW THE GULF
OF ANADYR WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THU THEN MOVE TO
LIE OVER THE BROOKS RANGE TO THE BERING STRAIT FRI. WILL
SEE 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE FRONT MANY AREAS ALONG WEST
COAST...WITH UP TO 2 FT IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN BROOKS
RANGE AND SEWARD PENINSULA. EXPECT 2-4 INCHES SNOW THRU FRI NORTH
OF THE BROOKS RANGE.

A 1002 MB LOW ALONG THIS FRONT IN THE GULF OF ANADYR WILL MOVE TO
150 NM NW OF BARROW BY 3AM THU...AND TO 300 NM NORTH OF BARTER
ISLAND BY 3PM THU THEN CONTINUE NE. A 992 MB LOW IN THE WESTERN
BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO NEAR ANADYR AS A 1002 MB LOW BY 3AM
THU...TO NEAR CAPE LISBURNE AS A 1008 MB LOW BY 3PM THU...TO 80 NM
NORTH OF DEADHORSE AS A 1010 MB LOW BY 3AM FRI...AND TO MACKENZIE
BAY LATE FRI. WILL SEE SOUTH WINDS 30G40KT WITH LOW VSBY IN
BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE FIRST AND SECOND
LOWS. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW IN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THESE LOWS SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE AS WELL.

A THIRD LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THU NIGHT WILL
MOVE TO 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL AS A 1003 MB LOW BY 4PM
FRI...AND TO WAINWRIGHT AS A 996 MB LOW BY 3PM SAT. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE WEST
COAST OF ALASKA FRI NIGHT...AND THEN SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA SAT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR VERY STRONG NW WINDS AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THIS THIRD LOW BUT IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO HAVE ANY
CONFIDENCE ON THIS HAPPENING.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR OF ALASKA WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRI. THESE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS GENERALLY CLEAR IN THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR WITH PATCHY MORNING FOG.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-
AKZ213-AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ205.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

JB FEB 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 252216
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
116 PM AKST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...A VERY STRONG LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
AND ALASKA WILL BUILD THROUGH FRI AND THEN PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS CAUSING MOIST SW FLOW ACROSS
THE BERING SEA INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA NOW WHICH WILL
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN ALASKA OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE RIDGE.

THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP NORTHERN ALASKA MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH SAT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH WETTER THAN NORMAL IN WESTERN
ALASKA AND FROM THE BROOKS RANGE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
THEN BECOME WETTER OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR SAT INTO SUN.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -10C TO -15C. TEMPERATURES OVER THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST RISE TO -4C THU...AND TO 0C OVER
THE ALASKA RANGE FRI.

SURFACE...
A 998 MB LOW 300 NM NORTH OF BARROW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND
WEAKEN. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THIS LOW TO BARROW THE GULF
OF ANADYR WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THU THEN MOVE TO
LIE OVER THE BROOKS RANGE TO THE BERING STRAIT FRI. WILL
SEE 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE FRONT MANY AREAS ALONG WEST
COAST...WITH UP TO 2 FT IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN BROOKS
RANGE AND SEWARD PENINSULA. EXPECT 2-4 INCHES SNOW THRU FRI NORTH
OF THE BROOKS RANGE.

A 1002 MB LOW ALONG THIS FRONT IN THE GULF OF ANADYR WILL MOVE TO
150 NM NW OF BARROW BY 3AM THU...AND TO 300 NM NORTH OF BARTER
ISLAND BY 3PM THU THEN CONTINUE NE. A 992 MB LOW IN THE WESTERN
BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO NEAR ANADYR AS A 1002 MB LOW BY 3AM
THU...TO NEAR CAPE LISBURNE AS A 1008 MB LOW BY 3PM THU...TO 80 NM
NORTH OF DEADHORSE AS A 1010 MB LOW BY 3AM FRI...AND TO MACKENZIE
BAY LATE FRI. WILL SEE SOUTH WINDS 30G40KT WITH LOW VSBY IN
BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE FIRST AND SECOND
LOWS. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW IN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THESE LOWS SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE AS WELL.

A THIRD LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THU NIGHT WILL
MOVE TO 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL AS A 1003 MB LOW BY 4PM
FRI...AND TO WAINWRIGHT AS A 996 MB LOW BY 3PM SAT. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE WEST
COAST OF ALASKA FRI NIGHT...AND THEN SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA SAT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR VERY STRONG NW WINDS AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THIS THIRD LOW BUT IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO HAVE ANY
CONFIDENCE ON THIS HAPPENING.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR OF ALASKA WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRI. THESE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS GENERALLY CLEAR IN THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR WITH PATCHY MORNING FOG.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-
AKZ213-AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ205.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

JB FEB 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 252216
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
116 PM AKST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...A VERY STRONG LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
AND ALASKA WILL BUILD THROUGH FRI AND THEN PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS CAUSING MOIST SW FLOW ACROSS
THE BERING SEA INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA NOW WHICH WILL
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN ALASKA OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE RIDGE.

THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP NORTHERN ALASKA MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH SAT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH WETTER THAN NORMAL IN WESTERN
ALASKA AND FROM THE BROOKS RANGE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
THEN BECOME WETTER OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR SAT INTO SUN.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -10C TO -15C. TEMPERATURES OVER THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST RISE TO -4C THU...AND TO 0C OVER
THE ALASKA RANGE FRI.

SURFACE...
A 998 MB LOW 300 NM NORTH OF BARROW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND
WEAKEN. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THIS LOW TO BARROW THE GULF
OF ANADYR WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THU THEN MOVE TO
LIE OVER THE BROOKS RANGE TO THE BERING STRAIT FRI. WILL
SEE 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE FRONT MANY AREAS ALONG WEST
COAST...WITH UP TO 2 FT IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN BROOKS
RANGE AND SEWARD PENINSULA. EXPECT 2-4 INCHES SNOW THRU FRI NORTH
OF THE BROOKS RANGE.

A 1002 MB LOW ALONG THIS FRONT IN THE GULF OF ANADYR WILL MOVE TO
150 NM NW OF BARROW BY 3AM THU...AND TO 300 NM NORTH OF BARTER
ISLAND BY 3PM THU THEN CONTINUE NE. A 992 MB LOW IN THE WESTERN
BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO NEAR ANADYR AS A 1002 MB LOW BY 3AM
THU...TO NEAR CAPE LISBURNE AS A 1008 MB LOW BY 3PM THU...TO 80 NM
NORTH OF DEADHORSE AS A 1010 MB LOW BY 3AM FRI...AND TO MACKENZIE
BAY LATE FRI. WILL SEE SOUTH WINDS 30G40KT WITH LOW VSBY IN
BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE FIRST AND SECOND
LOWS. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW IN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THESE LOWS SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE AS WELL.

A THIRD LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THU NIGHT WILL
MOVE TO 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL AS A 1003 MB LOW BY 4PM
FRI...AND TO WAINWRIGHT AS A 996 MB LOW BY 3PM SAT. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE WEST
COAST OF ALASKA FRI NIGHT...AND THEN SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA SAT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR VERY STRONG NW WINDS AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THIS THIRD LOW BUT IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO HAVE ANY
CONFIDENCE ON THIS HAPPENING.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR OF ALASKA WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRI. THESE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS GENERALLY CLEAR IN THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR WITH PATCHY MORNING FOG.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-
AKZ213-AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ205.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

JB FEB 15





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