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000
FXAK69 PAFG 012136
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
136 PM AKDT TUE SEP 1 2015

DISCUSSION...THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OUT THOUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

UPPER AIR...
A TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN BEAUFORT SEA WILL
EXTEND FROM 200 MILES NORTH OF BARROW TO INUVIK AND SOUTHEASTWARD
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL THEN MERGE WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH INCOMING FROM THE WEST. THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 200 MILES NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
RUSSIAN ARCTIC COAST...AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO EXTEND FROM
80N/130W TO DEMARCATION POINT BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE PLACEMENT OF
THE SHORTWAVE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL BUILD EAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY.

THURSDAY EVENING THE MODELS SPLIT OFF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE
EASTERN MOVING SHORTWAVE. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THIS SITUATION. THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW CENTERED
OVER THE MACKENZIE RIVER DELTA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND THE
GFS HAVE THE LOW CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER OLD CROW FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS THE DEEPEST OF THE THREE SOLUTIONS. WE PREFER THE GFS
SOLUTION.

OFF TO THE WEST A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING UP THE
WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS NOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WILL
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND NORTON SOUND BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN DAMPENING OUT SOME AS IT MOVES TO THE
CHUKOTSK PENINSULA AND THE CHUKCHI SEA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
MODELS ARE HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE GENERAL
PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE.

SURFACE...
A 1025 MB HIGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
EAST THIS EVENING. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA ON WEDNESDAY.

AN OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE EAST TONIGHT.

A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE PRIBILOFS
WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO NEAR OR JUST WEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AGREES WELL WITH THE
ECMWF..PUTTING THE CENTER ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE NAM POSITION IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER
TO THE EAST. WE PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION.

AN OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHEAST FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO
GAMBELL TO ST MARYS BY 4PM WED...TO PROVIDENIYA TO ANVIK BY 4AM
THU...TO THE BERING STRAIT TO A FRONTAL WAVE NEAR NOME TO MCGRATH
BY 4PM THU...TO A 1004 MB FRONTAL WAVE IN THE BERING STRAIT TO
MCGRATH BY 4AM FRI AND THEN WEAKENING IN PLACE.


SURFACE WEATHER...

ARCTIC COAST... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. GALE FORE WEST WINDS
WINDS ACROSS ZONE 204 N ARCTIC COAST WILL DECREASE LATE HIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE ALONG THE ARCTIC
COAST...WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. EAST WINDS 15-20 MPH DEVELOPING OVER ALL OF THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EAST WINDS 25-30 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST THURSDAY MORNING.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEASTER INTERIOR THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
DECREASING CLOUDS MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. CLEAR OR PARTLY SKIES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WESTERN INTERIOR...
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN
LIKELY IN THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY OVER
PARTS OF THE LOWER KOYUKUK AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEYS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

WEST COAST...
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAIN DEVELOPING
IN THE YUKON DELTA WEDNESDAY MORNING OUT AHEAD OF A NORTHEASTWARD
MOVING SURFACE FRONT...SPREADING TO EASTERN NORTON SOUND AND THE
NULATO HILLS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. RAIN LIKELY ON THE SOUTHERN
SEWARD PENINSULA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SPREADING TO
KOTZEBUE SOUND BY FRIDAY.

ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...
RAIN  WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT
MOVE NORTHEAST. EAST WINDS 25-35 MPH OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BECOMING SOUTH AND DECREASING EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...MODERATE SURF POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG ARCTIC COAST EAST OF BARROW WITH
E WINDS AROUND 30 MPH.

FIRE WEATHER...
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

HYDROLOGY... RIVER LEVELS ON THE CHENA RIVER
REMAIN ELEVATED BUT ARE GRADUALLY FALLING. ELSEWHERE...NO
HYDROLOGIC ISSUES.
&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

&&

$$

SEP 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 012136
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
136 PM AKDT TUE SEP 1 2015

DISCUSSION...THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OUT THOUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

UPPER AIR...
A TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN BEAUFORT SEA WILL
EXTEND FROM 200 MILES NORTH OF BARROW TO INUVIK AND SOUTHEASTWARD
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL THEN MERGE WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH INCOMING FROM THE WEST. THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 200 MILES NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
RUSSIAN ARCTIC COAST...AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO EXTEND FROM
80N/130W TO DEMARCATION POINT BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE PLACEMENT OF
THE SHORTWAVE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL BUILD EAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY.

THURSDAY EVENING THE MODELS SPLIT OFF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE
EASTERN MOVING SHORTWAVE. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THIS SITUATION. THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW CENTERED
OVER THE MACKENZIE RIVER DELTA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND THE
GFS HAVE THE LOW CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER OLD CROW FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS THE DEEPEST OF THE THREE SOLUTIONS. WE PREFER THE GFS
SOLUTION.

OFF TO THE WEST A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING UP THE
WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS NOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WILL
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND NORTON SOUND BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN DAMPENING OUT SOME AS IT MOVES TO THE
CHUKOTSK PENINSULA AND THE CHUKCHI SEA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
MODELS ARE HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE GENERAL
PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE.

SURFACE...
A 1025 MB HIGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
EAST THIS EVENING. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA ON WEDNESDAY.

AN OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE EAST TONIGHT.

A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE PRIBILOFS
WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO NEAR OR JUST WEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AGREES WELL WITH THE
ECMWF..PUTTING THE CENTER ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE NAM POSITION IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER
TO THE EAST. WE PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION.

AN OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHEAST FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO
GAMBELL TO ST MARYS BY 4PM WED...TO PROVIDENIYA TO ANVIK BY 4AM
THU...TO THE BERING STRAIT TO A FRONTAL WAVE NEAR NOME TO MCGRATH
BY 4PM THU...TO A 1004 MB FRONTAL WAVE IN THE BERING STRAIT TO
MCGRATH BY 4AM FRI AND THEN WEAKENING IN PLACE.


SURFACE WEATHER...

ARCTIC COAST... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. GALE FORE WEST WINDS
WINDS ACROSS ZONE 204 N ARCTIC COAST WILL DECREASE LATE HIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE ALONG THE ARCTIC
COAST...WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. EAST WINDS 15-20 MPH DEVELOPING OVER ALL OF THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EAST WINDS 25-30 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST THURSDAY MORNING.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEASTER INTERIOR THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
DECREASING CLOUDS MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. CLEAR OR PARTLY SKIES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WESTERN INTERIOR...
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN
LIKELY IN THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY OVER
PARTS OF THE LOWER KOYUKUK AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEYS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

WEST COAST...
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAIN DEVELOPING
IN THE YUKON DELTA WEDNESDAY MORNING OUT AHEAD OF A NORTHEASTWARD
MOVING SURFACE FRONT...SPREADING TO EASTERN NORTON SOUND AND THE
NULATO HILLS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. RAIN LIKELY ON THE SOUTHERN
SEWARD PENINSULA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SPREADING TO
KOTZEBUE SOUND BY FRIDAY.

ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...
RAIN  WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT
MOVE NORTHEAST. EAST WINDS 25-35 MPH OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BECOMING SOUTH AND DECREASING EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...MODERATE SURF POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG ARCTIC COAST EAST OF BARROW WITH
E WINDS AROUND 30 MPH.

FIRE WEATHER...
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

HYDROLOGY... RIVER LEVELS ON THE CHENA RIVER
REMAIN ELEVATED BUT ARE GRADUALLY FALLING. ELSEWHERE...NO
HYDROLOGIC ISSUES.
&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

&&

$$

SEP 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 012136
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
136 PM AKDT TUE SEP 1 2015

DISCUSSION...THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OUT THOUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

UPPER AIR...
A TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN BEAUFORT SEA WILL
EXTEND FROM 200 MILES NORTH OF BARROW TO INUVIK AND SOUTHEASTWARD
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL THEN MERGE WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH INCOMING FROM THE WEST. THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 200 MILES NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
RUSSIAN ARCTIC COAST...AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO EXTEND FROM
80N/130W TO DEMARCATION POINT BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE PLACEMENT OF
THE SHORTWAVE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL BUILD EAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY.

THURSDAY EVENING THE MODELS SPLIT OFF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE
EASTERN MOVING SHORTWAVE. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THIS SITUATION. THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW CENTERED
OVER THE MACKENZIE RIVER DELTA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND THE
GFS HAVE THE LOW CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER OLD CROW FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS THE DEEPEST OF THE THREE SOLUTIONS. WE PREFER THE GFS
SOLUTION.

OFF TO THE WEST A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING UP THE
WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS NOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WILL
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND NORTON SOUND BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN DAMPENING OUT SOME AS IT MOVES TO THE
CHUKOTSK PENINSULA AND THE CHUKCHI SEA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
MODELS ARE HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE GENERAL
PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE.

SURFACE...
A 1025 MB HIGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
EAST THIS EVENING. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA ON WEDNESDAY.

AN OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE EAST TONIGHT.

A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE PRIBILOFS
WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO NEAR OR JUST WEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AGREES WELL WITH THE
ECMWF..PUTTING THE CENTER ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE NAM POSITION IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER
TO THE EAST. WE PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION.

AN OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHEAST FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO
GAMBELL TO ST MARYS BY 4PM WED...TO PROVIDENIYA TO ANVIK BY 4AM
THU...TO THE BERING STRAIT TO A FRONTAL WAVE NEAR NOME TO MCGRATH
BY 4PM THU...TO A 1004 MB FRONTAL WAVE IN THE BERING STRAIT TO
MCGRATH BY 4AM FRI AND THEN WEAKENING IN PLACE.


SURFACE WEATHER...

ARCTIC COAST... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. GALE FORE WEST WINDS
WINDS ACROSS ZONE 204 N ARCTIC COAST WILL DECREASE LATE HIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE ALONG THE ARCTIC
COAST...WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. EAST WINDS 15-20 MPH DEVELOPING OVER ALL OF THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EAST WINDS 25-30 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST THURSDAY MORNING.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEASTER INTERIOR THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
DECREASING CLOUDS MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. CLEAR OR PARTLY SKIES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WESTERN INTERIOR...
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN
LIKELY IN THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY OVER
PARTS OF THE LOWER KOYUKUK AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEYS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

WEST COAST...
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAIN DEVELOPING
IN THE YUKON DELTA WEDNESDAY MORNING OUT AHEAD OF A NORTHEASTWARD
MOVING SURFACE FRONT...SPREADING TO EASTERN NORTON SOUND AND THE
NULATO HILLS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. RAIN LIKELY ON THE SOUTHERN
SEWARD PENINSULA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SPREADING TO
KOTZEBUE SOUND BY FRIDAY.

ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...
RAIN  WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT
MOVE NORTHEAST. EAST WINDS 25-35 MPH OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BECOMING SOUTH AND DECREASING EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...MODERATE SURF POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG ARCTIC COAST EAST OF BARROW WITH
E WINDS AROUND 30 MPH.

FIRE WEATHER...
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

HYDROLOGY... RIVER LEVELS ON THE CHENA RIVER
REMAIN ELEVATED BUT ARE GRADUALLY FALLING. ELSEWHERE...NO
HYDROLOGIC ISSUES.
&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

&&

$$

SEP 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 011308
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
508 AM AKDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR... TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN BEAUFORT SEA
SOUTHEASTWARD TO MAYO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD...EXTENDING FROM 200
MILES NORTH OF BARROW TO INUVIK AND SOUTHEASTWARD BY LATE TONIGHT.
THE TROUGH WILL THEN MERGE WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH INCOMING FROM
THE WEST. THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 200 MILES NORTH
OF WRANGEL ISLAND SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC COAST...AND
WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO EXTEND FROM 80N/130W TO DEMARCATION POINT BY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT GFS/NAM/ECMWF RUNS AND THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MOVEMENT OF THIS NEXT
SHORT WAVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA
TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWARD. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TO UNALAKLEET THEN SOUTHWARD
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT A BIT NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD...RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM CAPE SCHMIDT ON THE SIBERIAN COAST TO POINT LAY TO TANANA
THEN SOUTHWARD TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE PORTION OF THE RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. CURRENT MODEL RUNS AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTIONS SPLIT OFF AN UPPER LOW FROM THE EASTWARD MOVING SHORT
WAVE...WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER PLACED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE
MACKENZIE RIVER DELTA. THE NAM SOLUTION RETAINS THE TROUGH WITH NO
LOW CENTER SPLITTING OFF.

OFF TO THE WEST...A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING UP THE
WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS NOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WILL
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND NORTON SOUND BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN DAMPENING OUT SOME AS IT MOVES TO THE
CHUKOTSK PENINSULA AND THE CHUKCHI SEA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR...THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER ON
THE MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE...THIS FEATURE BECOMES SMOOTHED OUT
IN THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS
IS PREFERRED. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SHORT WAVE.

SURFACE... A 1020 MB HIGH IS NOW CENTERED JUST EAST OF UMIAT WITH
A NARROW RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR ARCTIC
SLOPE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO NEAR DEADHORSE BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEAKENING THE SEA LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING WINDS ON THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE ALASKA WEST COAST AND
THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MORPH INTO A BROAD 1020-1022 MB OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR BY THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL
BUILD TO A 1024 MB CENTER OVER THE LOWER MACKENZIE RIVER REGION
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUT WEST...A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR AMCHITKA WILL DEEPEN TO A
1001 MB LOW ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF THE PRIBILOFS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN FILL BY 1-2 MB AS IT MOVES TO NEAR OR JUST
WEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AGREES WELL WITH THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...PUTTING THE CENTER
ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
NAM AND ECMWF POSITIONS SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE EAST. A GFS/NAM/
ECMWF CONSENSUS WOULD PUT THE CENTER ABOUT 50 MILES WEST OF
GAMBELL WEDNESDAY EVENING. GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS FILL THE LOW OVER
THE GULF OF ANADYR BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND LOOK LIKE A
REASONABLE SOLUTION.

ARCTIC COAST...
OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST...WEST WINDS 25-35 MPH GRADUALLY
DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE ALONG THE ARCTIC
COAST... WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EAST WINDS 15-20 MPH DEVELOPING OVER ALL OF THE COAST THURSDAY.
EAST WINDS 25-30 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CONTINUING ALONG THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST THIS MORNING...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ABOUT 1
INCH EXPECTED. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST.

BROOKS RANGE...
A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE THIS MORNING...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE ALASKA RANGE AND SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR TODAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW IN THE ALASKA
RANGE. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. DECREASING CLOUDS MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE INCOMING
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. CLEAR OR PARTLY SKIES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WESTERN INTERIOR...
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN
LIKELY IN THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY OVER
PARTS OF THE LOWER KOYUKUK AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEYS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

WEST COAST...
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAIN DEVELOPING
IN THE YUKON DELTA WEDNESDAY MORNING OUT AHEAD OF A NORTHEASTWARD
MOVING SURFACE FRONT...SPREADING TO EASTERN NORTON SOUND AND THE
NULATO HILLS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. RAIN LIKELY ON THE SOUTHERN
SEWARD PENINSULA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...
RAIN  WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT
MOVE NORTHEAST. EAST WINDS 25-35 MPH OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY...BECOMING SOUTH AND DECREASING EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...MODERATE TO HIGH SURF
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST WITH E WINDS AROUND 30 MPH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARMER AND DRYER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER THE
RIDGE ALOFT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER LEVELS ON THE CHENA RIVER REMAIN ELEVATED BUT ARE GRADUALLY
FALLING. THE STAGE OF THE CHENA RIVER NEAR CHENA LAKES IS DOWN TO
23.3 FEET AND GRADUALLY FALLING AS WATER DRAINS FROM THE FLOOD
CONTROL PROJECT POOL. THE STAGE OF THE CHENA RIVER AT FAIRBANKS IS
CURRENTLY ABOUT 7.9 FEET AND FALLING SLOWLY. ELSEWHERE...NO
HYDROLOGIC ISSUES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ204.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.
&&

$$

RF SEP15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 312143
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
143 PM AKDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTS OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF ALASKA AND A RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA AND WEST COAST OF
ALASKA. THIS PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER MAINLAND ALASKA TUE THROUGH WED THEN PERSISTING INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE A WARMING AND DRYING PATTERN OVER
EASTERN ALASKA FROM TUE THROUGH THU AND THEN REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WEST COAST WILL SEE A RETURN TO WET
CONDITIONS WED AND THU WITH COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM TOK TO ARCTIC VILLAGE WILL DISSIPATE OVER
THE EASTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT AND TUE. EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS BECOMING ISOLATED TUE.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM +2C ALONG THE WEST COAST TO -6C
OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH SLOPE AND -4 OVER THE INTERIOR WITH
FREEZING LEVELS RANGING FROM 2000-3000 FEET EXCEPT FOR LESS THAN
1000 FT OVER THE NORTH SLOPE. ALL AREAS SEE A 2-4C RISE THROUGH
TUE...AND THEN RISE ANOTHER FEW DEGREES C WED WITH SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING AS WELL. FROST STILL LIKELY INTERIOR TONIGHT
AND TUE NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR.

SURFACE...
A 990 MB LOW 200 NM EAST OF INUVIK WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WITH THIS LOW STRETCHING NORTH OVER THE BEAUFORT
SEA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TUE AND WED. RAIN AND SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL FALL OVER THE NE SECTION OF ALASKA TONIGHT
THEN DIMINISHING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TUE. EXPECT 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS OVER NE ALASKA WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE
EASTERN BROOKS RANGE ABOVE 2000 FT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN ARCTIC SLOPE OF
ALASKA WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN ARCTIC SLOPE
TUE THEN MOVE EAST OVER NW CANADA WED AND THU. THIS IS CAUSING NW
WINDS 15G25 MPH UP THE TANANA AND OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE
PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS IS ALSO CAUSING WEST WINDS 30G40KT
OVER ZONE 204 WHICH WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THEN DECREASING TUE.

A SURFACE LOW MOVING IN THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA TUE WILL MOVE TO
100 NM SOUTH OF GAMBELL BY 4PM WED AS A 1000 MB LOW AND TO 100 NM
NORTH OF GAMBELL AS A 1005 MB LOW BY 4PM THU. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH THIS SYSTEM WED AND THU
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR WED NIGHT AND THU.
WILL SEE EAST WINDS 30KT SPREADING NORTH OVER THE BERING SEA JUST
NORTH OF THE LOW. THIS SYSTEM COULD DEEPEN OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA
FRI AND SAT AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ARCTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THIS IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH WED.
FROM WED THROUGH NEXT WEEK SEE SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF SHORT
WAVES/SURFACE LOWS...THOUGH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IS GENERALLY
SIMILAR. PREFER THE GFS WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE
SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH OVER THE BERING SEA WED AND THU AND OVER
THE CHUKCHI FRI.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF ZONE 204 THROUGH TUE.
POSSIBLE HIGH SURF ALONG ARCTIC COAST SAT AND SUN BUT STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON THAT SYSTEM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SLIGHT DRYING AND WARMING TUE AND MORE SO WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH WATER REMAINS ON THE LOWER CHENA BUT IS NOW FALLING AS THE
DAM IS NOW RELEASING WATER DOWNSTREAM.
RIVERS FALLING MOST OTHER AREAS NOW AS WELL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ204.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ240.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.
&&

$$

JB AUG 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 312143
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
143 PM AKDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTS OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF ALASKA AND A RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA AND WEST COAST OF
ALASKA. THIS PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER MAINLAND ALASKA TUE THROUGH WED THEN PERSISTING INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE A WARMING AND DRYING PATTERN OVER
EASTERN ALASKA FROM TUE THROUGH THU AND THEN REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WEST COAST WILL SEE A RETURN TO WET
CONDITIONS WED AND THU WITH COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM TOK TO ARCTIC VILLAGE WILL DISSIPATE OVER
THE EASTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT AND TUE. EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS BECOMING ISOLATED TUE.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM +2C ALONG THE WEST COAST TO -6C
OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH SLOPE AND -4 OVER THE INTERIOR WITH
FREEZING LEVELS RANGING FROM 2000-3000 FEET EXCEPT FOR LESS THAN
1000 FT OVER THE NORTH SLOPE. ALL AREAS SEE A 2-4C RISE THROUGH
TUE...AND THEN RISE ANOTHER FEW DEGREES C WED WITH SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING AS WELL. FROST STILL LIKELY INTERIOR TONIGHT
AND TUE NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR.

SURFACE...
A 990 MB LOW 200 NM EAST OF INUVIK WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WITH THIS LOW STRETCHING NORTH OVER THE BEAUFORT
SEA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TUE AND WED. RAIN AND SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL FALL OVER THE NE SECTION OF ALASKA TONIGHT
THEN DIMINISHING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TUE. EXPECT 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS OVER NE ALASKA WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE
EASTERN BROOKS RANGE ABOVE 2000 FT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN ARCTIC SLOPE OF
ALASKA WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN ARCTIC SLOPE
TUE THEN MOVE EAST OVER NW CANADA WED AND THU. THIS IS CAUSING NW
WINDS 15G25 MPH UP THE TANANA AND OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE
PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS IS ALSO CAUSING WEST WINDS 30G40KT
OVER ZONE 204 WHICH WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THEN DECREASING TUE.

A SURFACE LOW MOVING IN THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA TUE WILL MOVE TO
100 NM SOUTH OF GAMBELL BY 4PM WED AS A 1000 MB LOW AND TO 100 NM
NORTH OF GAMBELL AS A 1005 MB LOW BY 4PM THU. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH THIS SYSTEM WED AND THU
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR WED NIGHT AND THU.
WILL SEE EAST WINDS 30KT SPREADING NORTH OVER THE BERING SEA JUST
NORTH OF THE LOW. THIS SYSTEM COULD DEEPEN OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA
FRI AND SAT AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ARCTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THIS IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH WED.
FROM WED THROUGH NEXT WEEK SEE SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF SHORT
WAVES/SURFACE LOWS...THOUGH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IS GENERALLY
SIMILAR. PREFER THE GFS WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE
SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH OVER THE BERING SEA WED AND THU AND OVER
THE CHUKCHI FRI.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF ZONE 204 THROUGH TUE.
POSSIBLE HIGH SURF ALONG ARCTIC COAST SAT AND SUN BUT STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON THAT SYSTEM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SLIGHT DRYING AND WARMING TUE AND MORE SO WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH WATER REMAINS ON THE LOWER CHENA BUT IS NOW FALLING AS THE
DAM IS NOW RELEASING WATER DOWNSTREAM.
RIVERS FALLING MOST OTHER AREAS NOW AS WELL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ204.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ240.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.
&&

$$

JB AUG 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 312143
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
143 PM AKDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTS OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF ALASKA AND A RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA AND WEST COAST OF
ALASKA. THIS PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER MAINLAND ALASKA TUE THROUGH WED THEN PERSISTING INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE A WARMING AND DRYING PATTERN OVER
EASTERN ALASKA FROM TUE THROUGH THU AND THEN REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WEST COAST WILL SEE A RETURN TO WET
CONDITIONS WED AND THU WITH COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM TOK TO ARCTIC VILLAGE WILL DISSIPATE OVER
THE EASTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT AND TUE. EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS BECOMING ISOLATED TUE.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM +2C ALONG THE WEST COAST TO -6C
OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH SLOPE AND -4 OVER THE INTERIOR WITH
FREEZING LEVELS RANGING FROM 2000-3000 FEET EXCEPT FOR LESS THAN
1000 FT OVER THE NORTH SLOPE. ALL AREAS SEE A 2-4C RISE THROUGH
TUE...AND THEN RISE ANOTHER FEW DEGREES C WED WITH SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING AS WELL. FROST STILL LIKELY INTERIOR TONIGHT
AND TUE NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR.

SURFACE...
A 990 MB LOW 200 NM EAST OF INUVIK WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WITH THIS LOW STRETCHING NORTH OVER THE BEAUFORT
SEA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TUE AND WED. RAIN AND SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL FALL OVER THE NE SECTION OF ALASKA TONIGHT
THEN DIMINISHING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TUE. EXPECT 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS OVER NE ALASKA WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE
EASTERN BROOKS RANGE ABOVE 2000 FT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN ARCTIC SLOPE OF
ALASKA WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN ARCTIC SLOPE
TUE THEN MOVE EAST OVER NW CANADA WED AND THU. THIS IS CAUSING NW
WINDS 15G25 MPH UP THE TANANA AND OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE
PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS IS ALSO CAUSING WEST WINDS 30G40KT
OVER ZONE 204 WHICH WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THEN DECREASING TUE.

A SURFACE LOW MOVING IN THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA TUE WILL MOVE TO
100 NM SOUTH OF GAMBELL BY 4PM WED AS A 1000 MB LOW AND TO 100 NM
NORTH OF GAMBELL AS A 1005 MB LOW BY 4PM THU. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH THIS SYSTEM WED AND THU
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR WED NIGHT AND THU.
WILL SEE EAST WINDS 30KT SPREADING NORTH OVER THE BERING SEA JUST
NORTH OF THE LOW. THIS SYSTEM COULD DEEPEN OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA
FRI AND SAT AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ARCTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THIS IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH WED.
FROM WED THROUGH NEXT WEEK SEE SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF SHORT
WAVES/SURFACE LOWS...THOUGH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IS GENERALLY
SIMILAR. PREFER THE GFS WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE
SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH OVER THE BERING SEA WED AND THU AND OVER
THE CHUKCHI FRI.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF ZONE 204 THROUGH TUE.
POSSIBLE HIGH SURF ALONG ARCTIC COAST SAT AND SUN BUT STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON THAT SYSTEM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SLIGHT DRYING AND WARMING TUE AND MORE SO WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH WATER REMAINS ON THE LOWER CHENA BUT IS NOW FALLING AS THE
DAM IS NOW RELEASING WATER DOWNSTREAM.
RIVERS FALLING MOST OTHER AREAS NOW AS WELL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ204.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ240.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.
&&

$$

JB AUG 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 311327
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
527 AM AKDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
AN UPPER LOW CENTER CENTERED ABOUT ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF
MCGRATH WILL MOVE TO NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND LATE THIS MORNING AND
TO ABOUT 150 MILES OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY THIS
EVENING. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM BARROW SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVE EASTWARD TO THE ALASKA COAST.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
THURSDAY... EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN BEAUFORT SEA TO NEAR
CORDOVA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE BACK SIDE OF RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TO THE DALL POINT/YUKON
DELTA AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING OR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND TO ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND AND NORTON BY THURSDAY MORNING. THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...THERE ARE ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL
RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF MODELS.

SURFACE...
A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM BARROW EASTWARD TO
DEMARCATION POINT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO EXTEND FROM THE
UMIAT AREAS EASTWARD TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A 1018 MB HIGH WILL DEVELOP JUST EAST OF UMIAT BY THIS
EVENING...BUILDING TO A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR BARTER ISLAND
BY TUESDAY EVENING. A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDS FROM 600 MILES NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY TO 300 MILES NORTH OF
PRUDHOE BAY THEN SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MACKENZIE RIVER DELTA AREA.
THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE SOUTHERN PART BEING
DISPLACED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THE SEA LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
ISOBAR ORIENTATION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS
MARINE AREA PKZ245 AND THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH NOON
TUESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE NARROW
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE ARCTIC SLOPE MOVES SOUTHWARD TO SET
UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST. MARINE AREA PK240 AND THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST WILL
EXPERIENCE WINDS OF 25-30 KT. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
SLOWLY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND
MOVES BACK NORTHWARD TO THE ARCTIC COAST.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA
NORTHWARD TO CAPE NAVARIN ON THE RUSSIAN COAST WILL BUILD TO A
1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR GALENA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...RESULTING
IN AN ELONGATED 1023 MB HIGH CENTER EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY.

ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE UP
THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...A 100 MB LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TO ABOUT 50-100 MILES WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ONLY
SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW POSITION. GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW A LOW
TO MODERATE SPREAD OF LOW PRESSURE CENTER POSITIONS...ENSEMBLE
MEAN GIVES A 1002 MB LOW ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ARCTIC COAST...WINDS ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST INCREASING TO
35-45 MPH THIS MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND MID DAY
TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO DECREASE. HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM TUESDAY. WINDS ALONG THE
CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 MPH TODAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO DECREASE SLOWLY. MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BECOMING ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW LIKELY
OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TUESDAY MORNING...BECOMING
MIXED WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. ABOUT 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

BROOKS RANGE...2 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN BROOKS RANGE AND INTERIOR ARCTIC SLOPE...WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EAST OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY. ABOUT 3 INCHES OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE DALTON HIGHWAY. 1 OR 2 ADDITIONAL
INCHES MAY OCCUR EAST OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY TUESDAY. NORTH WINDS
LOCALLY GUSTING TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN PASSES IN THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
FREEZING...SNOW WILL BE WET. WHILE BLOWING SNOW IS LIKELY
IN PASSES...VISIBILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO GET AS LOW AS A HALF
MILE.

EASTERN INTERIOR...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE ALASKA
RANGE...UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY...EASTERN UPPER
YUKON VALLEY AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW
IN THE ALASKA RANGE...SNOW LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 2000 FT THIS
MORNING RISING TO AROUND 3500 FT MSL IN THE AFTERNOON.
FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY
THIS MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

CENTRAL INTERIOR...
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S OVER MOST AREAS.

WESTERN INTERIOR...
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S OVER MANY AREAS. CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER
YUKON VALLEY WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE WAVE TROUGH.

WEST COAST...
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. NORTHWARD MOVING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND TO THE YUKON DELTA WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE WITH OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
RUNS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT WITH POOR CONTINUITY WITH
THE PREVIOUS RUN AFTER DAY 4. NEITHER THE GEFS OR ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN INDICATES THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN 500 MB HOLDS A RIDGE POSITION OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN INTERIOR WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WEST
COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MEAN 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL. ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN 500 MB BREAKS DOWN THE
UPPER RIDGE BY FRIDAY WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT LIKELY TO DEPART
MUCH FROM SEASONAL NORMALS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE NEAR OR LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR...NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE WEST COAST COAST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NONE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHENA RIVER ABOVE
THE MOOSE CREEK DAM. THE MOOSE CREEK DAM IS OPERATING...THE
STAGE OF THE CHENA RIVER NEAR CHENA LAKES IS REMAINING
STATIONARY AT ABOUT 25.0 FEET. THE CHENA RIVER AT FAIRBANKS
HAS LEVELED OFF AT 8.8-8.9 FEET...FLOW IS BEING REGULATED
BY THE MOOSE CREEK DAM. THE CHENA RIVER NEAR TWO RIVERS AND
BELOW HUNTS CREEK IS CONTINUING TO FALL SLOWLY. NO HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ204.

FROST ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.
&&

$$

RF AUG 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 311327
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
527 AM AKDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
AN UPPER LOW CENTER CENTERED ABOUT ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF
MCGRATH WILL MOVE TO NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND LATE THIS MORNING AND
TO ABOUT 150 MILES OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY THIS
EVENING. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM BARROW SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVE EASTWARD TO THE ALASKA COAST.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
THURSDAY... EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN BEAUFORT SEA TO NEAR
CORDOVA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE BACK SIDE OF RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TO THE DALL POINT/YUKON
DELTA AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING OR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND TO ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND AND NORTON BY THURSDAY MORNING. THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...THERE ARE ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL
RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF MODELS.

SURFACE...
A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM BARROW EASTWARD TO
DEMARCATION POINT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO EXTEND FROM THE
UMIAT AREAS EASTWARD TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A 1018 MB HIGH WILL DEVELOP JUST EAST OF UMIAT BY THIS
EVENING...BUILDING TO A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR BARTER ISLAND
BY TUESDAY EVENING. A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDS FROM 600 MILES NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY TO 300 MILES NORTH OF
PRUDHOE BAY THEN SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MACKENZIE RIVER DELTA AREA.
THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE SOUTHERN PART BEING
DISPLACED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THE SEA LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
ISOBAR ORIENTATION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS
MARINE AREA PKZ245 AND THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH NOON
TUESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE NARROW
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE ARCTIC SLOPE MOVES SOUTHWARD TO SET
UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST. MARINE AREA PK240 AND THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST WILL
EXPERIENCE WINDS OF 25-30 KT. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
SLOWLY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND
MOVES BACK NORTHWARD TO THE ARCTIC COAST.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA
NORTHWARD TO CAPE NAVARIN ON THE RUSSIAN COAST WILL BUILD TO A
1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR GALENA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...RESULTING
IN AN ELONGATED 1023 MB HIGH CENTER EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY.

ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE UP
THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...A 100 MB LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TO ABOUT 50-100 MILES WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ONLY
SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW POSITION. GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW A LOW
TO MODERATE SPREAD OF LOW PRESSURE CENTER POSITIONS...ENSEMBLE
MEAN GIVES A 1002 MB LOW ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ARCTIC COAST...WINDS ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST INCREASING TO
35-45 MPH THIS MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND MID DAY
TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO DECREASE. HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM TUESDAY. WINDS ALONG THE
CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 MPH TODAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO DECREASE SLOWLY. MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BECOMING ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW LIKELY
OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TUESDAY MORNING...BECOMING
MIXED WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. ABOUT 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

BROOKS RANGE...2 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN BROOKS RANGE AND INTERIOR ARCTIC SLOPE...WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EAST OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY. ABOUT 3 INCHES OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE DALTON HIGHWAY. 1 OR 2 ADDITIONAL
INCHES MAY OCCUR EAST OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY TUESDAY. NORTH WINDS
LOCALLY GUSTING TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN PASSES IN THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
FREEZING...SNOW WILL BE WET. WHILE BLOWING SNOW IS LIKELY
IN PASSES...VISIBILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO GET AS LOW AS A HALF
MILE.

EASTERN INTERIOR...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE ALASKA
RANGE...UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY...EASTERN UPPER
YUKON VALLEY AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW
IN THE ALASKA RANGE...SNOW LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 2000 FT THIS
MORNING RISING TO AROUND 3500 FT MSL IN THE AFTERNOON.
FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY
THIS MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

CENTRAL INTERIOR...
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S OVER MOST AREAS.

WESTERN INTERIOR...
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S OVER MANY AREAS. CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER
YUKON VALLEY WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE WAVE TROUGH.

WEST COAST...
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. NORTHWARD MOVING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND TO THE YUKON DELTA WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE WITH OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
RUNS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT WITH POOR CONTINUITY WITH
THE PREVIOUS RUN AFTER DAY 4. NEITHER THE GEFS OR ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN INDICATES THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN 500 MB HOLDS A RIDGE POSITION OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN INTERIOR WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WEST
COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MEAN 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL. ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN 500 MB BREAKS DOWN THE
UPPER RIDGE BY FRIDAY WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT LIKELY TO DEPART
MUCH FROM SEASONAL NORMALS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE NEAR OR LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR...NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE WEST COAST COAST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NONE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHENA RIVER ABOVE
THE MOOSE CREEK DAM. THE MOOSE CREEK DAM IS OPERATING...THE
STAGE OF THE CHENA RIVER NEAR CHENA LAKES IS REMAINING
STATIONARY AT ABOUT 25.0 FEET. THE CHENA RIVER AT FAIRBANKS
HAS LEVELED OFF AT 8.8-8.9 FEET...FLOW IS BEING REGULATED
BY THE MOOSE CREEK DAM. THE CHENA RIVER NEAR TWO RIVERS AND
BELOW HUNTS CREEK IS CONTINUING TO FALL SLOWLY. NO HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ204.

FROST ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.
&&

$$

RF AUG 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 302335 AAB
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
335 PM AKDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE NOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA
BUILDS EAST TO A POSITION OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WED. THE RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVES INTO THIS RIDGE FROM THE WEST. THIS MEANS THE
CURRENT SHOWERY AND COLD PATTERN OVER ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA WILL
SHORT EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE WEST COAST WARMING
MON AND TUE WHILE THE INTERIOR AND ARCTIC WARMS TUE AND WED. WILL
SEE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THU THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR HUSLIA WILL MOVE SOUTH TO NEAR
ANCHORAGE BY 4AM MON. SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THIS
FEATURE WILL BECOME ISOLATED NORTH OF THE LOW TONIGHT. EXPECT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN NW FACING SLOPES WITH UP TO 2 INCHES SNOW
ACCUMULATION ABOVE 1000 FT TONIGHT. THERE ARE NW WINDS GUSTING TO
30KT WEST OF THE LOW THAT WILL DECREASE NORTH OF THE LOW.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY WILL MOVE TO
MAYO NE BY 4AM MON...TO NORTHWAY NORTH BY 4PM MON...TO TOK TO OLD
CROW BY 4AM TUE AND THEN WEAKENING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
SNOW WITH THIS TROUGH THAT WILL BECOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE. EXPECT SNOW LEVEL 2000-3000 FT WITH 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -3C TO -6C OVER NORTHERN ALASKA
WITH FREEZING LEVELS 1000-2000 FT. MON WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE INTERIOR OR NORTH SLOPE WHILE THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA
WILL SEE WARMING OF 2-4C MON. TUE WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE ON THE
WEST COAST BUT A 2-4C WARMING OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE.

SURFACE...
A LOW NEAR YELLOWKNIFE WILL MOVE TO 200 NM EAST OF INUVIK AS A
985 MB LOW BY 4AM MON WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE LOW NORTH
OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA. THESE FEATURES WILL THEN WEAKEN SLOWLY
THROUGH TUE. WILL SEE RAIN AND SNOW SPREADING OVER THE NE CORNER
OF ALASKA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE
ABOVE 1000 FT.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LIES OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND
WESTERN CHUKCHI SEA. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE ARCTIC
COAST AND INTERIOR OF ALASKA THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL CAUSE WEST
WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE DEVELOPING MON OVER THE BARTER ISLAND AREA.
THIS WILL CAUSE DECREASING CLOUDS OVER THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA
TONIGHT AND OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR MON. FROST WILL
BE LIKELY IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR LOW LYING AREAS
EARLY MON.

A WEATHER FRONT MOVING IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA TUE WILL MOVE TO
THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WED. THIS WILL BRING EASTERLY WINDS 30 KT
AND WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA TUE-WED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SIMILAR THROUGH TUE ALOFT...AND SHOW
SIMILAR PATTERN WED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SIGHT DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVES. AT THE SURFACE THE NAM DEVELOPS A
STRONGER LOW IN MACKENZIE BAY ON TUE THAN THE GFS OR ECMF. PREFER
THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION AS THE MAIN LOW REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND THE WARM AIR PUSHING NORTH AT LOW LEVELS OVER THE COLD WATER
IS NOT INDUCIVE TO DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW. STILL EXPECT
WESTERLY GALE FORCE WEST WINDS NEAR BARTER ISLAND MON NIGHT AND
TUE EVEN USING GFS SOLUTION...BUT NEED TO BE AWARE OF POTENTIAL
FOR MORE WINDS.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF NEAR SHISHMAREF ENDING THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH SURF POSSIBLE NEAR BARTER ISLAND MON INTO TUE.
NONE WED THROUGH FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GRADUAL DECREASING RH IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR MON AND
EASTERN INTERIOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOOSE CREEK DAM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BACKING UP FLOW THROUGH
MON OR TUE. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHENA HIGH FROM THE MOOSE CREEK DAM
DOWNSTREAM TO ITS MOUTH AT THE TANANA RIVER THROUGH MON OR TUE.
THIS WILL CAUSE AREAS THAT NOW HAVE MINOR FLOODING ON THE LOWER
CHENA TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON OR TUE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ204-AKZ207.

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ222

FROST ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.
&&

$$

AUG 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 302335 AAB
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
335 PM AKDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE NOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA
BUILDS EAST TO A POSITION OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WED. THE RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVES INTO THIS RIDGE FROM THE WEST. THIS MEANS THE
CURRENT SHOWERY AND COLD PATTERN OVER ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA WILL
SHORT EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE WEST COAST WARMING
MON AND TUE WHILE THE INTERIOR AND ARCTIC WARMS TUE AND WED. WILL
SEE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THU THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR HUSLIA WILL MOVE SOUTH TO NEAR
ANCHORAGE BY 4AM MON. SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THIS
FEATURE WILL BECOME ISOLATED NORTH OF THE LOW TONIGHT. EXPECT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN NW FACING SLOPES WITH UP TO 2 INCHES SNOW
ACCUMULATION ABOVE 1000 FT TONIGHT. THERE ARE NW WINDS GUSTING TO
30KT WEST OF THE LOW THAT WILL DECREASE NORTH OF THE LOW.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY WILL MOVE TO
MAYO NE BY 4AM MON...TO NORTHWAY NORTH BY 4PM MON...TO TOK TO OLD
CROW BY 4AM TUE AND THEN WEAKENING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
SNOW WITH THIS TROUGH THAT WILL BECOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE. EXPECT SNOW LEVEL 2000-3000 FT WITH 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -3C TO -6C OVER NORTHERN ALASKA
WITH FREEZING LEVELS 1000-2000 FT. MON WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE INTERIOR OR NORTH SLOPE WHILE THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA
WILL SEE WARMING OF 2-4C MON. TUE WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE ON THE
WEST COAST BUT A 2-4C WARMING OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE.

SURFACE...
A LOW NEAR YELLOWKNIFE WILL MOVE TO 200 NM EAST OF INUVIK AS A
985 MB LOW BY 4AM MON WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE LOW NORTH
OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA. THESE FEATURES WILL THEN WEAKEN SLOWLY
THROUGH TUE. WILL SEE RAIN AND SNOW SPREADING OVER THE NE CORNER
OF ALASKA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE
ABOVE 1000 FT.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LIES OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND
WESTERN CHUKCHI SEA. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE ARCTIC
COAST AND INTERIOR OF ALASKA THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL CAUSE WEST
WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE DEVELOPING MON OVER THE BARTER ISLAND AREA.
THIS WILL CAUSE DECREASING CLOUDS OVER THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA
TONIGHT AND OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR MON. FROST WILL
BE LIKELY IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR LOW LYING AREAS
EARLY MON.

A WEATHER FRONT MOVING IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA TUE WILL MOVE TO
THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WED. THIS WILL BRING EASTERLY WINDS 30 KT
AND WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA TUE-WED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SIMILAR THROUGH TUE ALOFT...AND SHOW
SIMILAR PATTERN WED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SIGHT DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVES. AT THE SURFACE THE NAM DEVELOPS A
STRONGER LOW IN MACKENZIE BAY ON TUE THAN THE GFS OR ECMF. PREFER
THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION AS THE MAIN LOW REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND THE WARM AIR PUSHING NORTH AT LOW LEVELS OVER THE COLD WATER
IS NOT INDUCIVE TO DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW. STILL EXPECT
WESTERLY GALE FORCE WEST WINDS NEAR BARTER ISLAND MON NIGHT AND
TUE EVEN USING GFS SOLUTION...BUT NEED TO BE AWARE OF POTENTIAL
FOR MORE WINDS.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF NEAR SHISHMAREF ENDING THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH SURF POSSIBLE NEAR BARTER ISLAND MON INTO TUE.
NONE WED THROUGH FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GRADUAL DECREASING RH IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR MON AND
EASTERN INTERIOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOOSE CREEK DAM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BACKING UP FLOW THROUGH
MON OR TUE. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHENA HIGH FROM THE MOOSE CREEK DAM
DOWNSTREAM TO ITS MOUTH AT THE TANANA RIVER THROUGH MON OR TUE.
THIS WILL CAUSE AREAS THAT NOW HAVE MINOR FLOODING ON THE LOWER
CHENA TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON OR TUE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ204-AKZ207.

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ222

FROST ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.
&&

$$

AUG 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 302311 AAA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
311 PM AKDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SIMILAR THROUGH TUE ALOFT...AND SHOW
SIMILAR PATTERN WED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SIGHT DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVES. AT THE SURFACE THE NAM DEVELOPS A
STRONGER LOW IN MACKENZIE BAY ON TUE THAN THE GFS OR ECMF. PREFER
THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION AS THE MAIN LOW REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND THE WARM AIR PUSHING NORTH AT LOW LEVELS OVER THE COLD WATER
IS NOT INDUCIVE TO DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW. STILL EXPECT
WESTERLY GALE FORCE WEST WINDS NEAR BARTER ISLAND MON NIGHT AND
TUE EVEN USING GFS SOLUTION...BUT NEED TO BE AWARE OF POTENTIAL
FOR MORE WINDS.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF NEAR SHISHMAREF ENDING THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH SURF POSSIBLE NEAR BARTER ISLAND MON INTO TUE.
NONE WED THROUGH FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GRADUAL DECREASING RH IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR MON AND
EASTERN INTERIOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOOSE CREEK DAM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BACKING UP FLOW THROUGH
MON OR TUE. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHENA HIGH FROM THE MOOSE CREEK DAM
DOWNSTREAM TO ITS MOUTH AT THE TANANA RIVER THROUGH MON OR TUE.
THIS WILL CAUSE AREAS THAT NOW HAVE MINOR FLOODING ON THE LOWER
CHENA TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON OR TUE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ204-AKZ207.

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR 222.

FROST ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.
&&

$$

JB AUG 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 302311 AAA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
311 PM AKDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SIMILAR THROUGH TUE ALOFT...AND SHOW
SIMILAR PATTERN WED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SIGHT DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVES. AT THE SURFACE THE NAM DEVELOPS A
STRONGER LOW IN MACKENZIE BAY ON TUE THAN THE GFS OR ECMF. PREFER
THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION AS THE MAIN LOW REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND THE WARM AIR PUSHING NORTH AT LOW LEVELS OVER THE COLD WATER
IS NOT INDUCIVE TO DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW. STILL EXPECT
WESTERLY GALE FORCE WEST WINDS NEAR BARTER ISLAND MON NIGHT AND
TUE EVEN USING GFS SOLUTION...BUT NEED TO BE AWARE OF POTENTIAL
FOR MORE WINDS.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF NEAR SHISHMAREF ENDING THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH SURF POSSIBLE NEAR BARTER ISLAND MON INTO TUE.
NONE WED THROUGH FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GRADUAL DECREASING RH IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR MON AND
EASTERN INTERIOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOOSE CREEK DAM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BACKING UP FLOW THROUGH
MON OR TUE. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHENA HIGH FROM THE MOOSE CREEK DAM
DOWNSTREAM TO ITS MOUTH AT THE TANANA RIVER THROUGH MON OR TUE.
THIS WILL CAUSE AREAS THAT NOW HAVE MINOR FLOODING ON THE LOWER
CHENA TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON OR TUE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ204-AKZ207.

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR 222.

FROST ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.
&&

$$

JB AUG 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 302311 AAA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
311 PM AKDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SIMILAR THROUGH TUE ALOFT...AND SHOW
SIMILAR PATTERN WED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SIGHT DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVES. AT THE SURFACE THE NAM DEVELOPS A
STRONGER LOW IN MACKENZIE BAY ON TUE THAN THE GFS OR ECMF. PREFER
THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION AS THE MAIN LOW REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND THE WARM AIR PUSHING NORTH AT LOW LEVELS OVER THE COLD WATER
IS NOT INDUCIVE TO DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW. STILL EXPECT
WESTERLY GALE FORCE WEST WINDS NEAR BARTER ISLAND MON NIGHT AND
TUE EVEN USING GFS SOLUTION...BUT NEED TO BE AWARE OF POTENTIAL
FOR MORE WINDS.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF NEAR SHISHMAREF ENDING THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH SURF POSSIBLE NEAR BARTER ISLAND MON INTO TUE.
NONE WED THROUGH FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GRADUAL DECREASING RH IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR MON AND
EASTERN INTERIOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOOSE CREEK DAM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BACKING UP FLOW THROUGH
MON OR TUE. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHENA HIGH FROM THE MOOSE CREEK DAM
DOWNSTREAM TO ITS MOUTH AT THE TANANA RIVER THROUGH MON OR TUE.
THIS WILL CAUSE AREAS THAT NOW HAVE MINOR FLOODING ON THE LOWER
CHENA TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON OR TUE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ204-AKZ207.

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR 222.

FROST ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.
&&

$$

JB AUG 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 302238
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
238 PM AKDT SUN AUG 30 2015


.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE NOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA
BUILDS EAST TO A POSITION OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WED. THE RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVES INTO THIS RIDGE FROM THE WEST. THIS MEANS THE
CURRENT SHOWERY AND COLD PATTERN OVER ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA WILL
SHORT EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE WEST COAST WARMING
MON AND TUE WHILE THE INTERIOR AND ARCTIC WARMS TUE AND WED. WILL
SEE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THU THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR HUSLIA WILL MOVE SOUTH TO NEAR
ANCHORAGE BY 4AM MON. SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THIS
FEATURE WILL BECOME ISOLATED NORTH OF THE LOW TONIGHT. EXPECT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN NW FACING SLOPES WITH UP TO 2 INCHES SNOW
ACCUMULATION ABOVE 1000 FT TONIGHT. THERE ARE NW WINDS GUSTING TO
30KT WEST OF THE LOW THAT WILL DECREASE NORTH OF THE LOW.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY WILL MOVE TO
MAYO NE BY 4AM MON...TO NORTHWAY NORTH BY 4PM MON...TO TOK TO OLD
CROW BY 4AM TUE AND THEN WEAKENING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
SNOW WITH THIS TROUGH THAT WILL BECOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE. EXPECT SNOW LEVEL 2000-3000 FT WITH 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -3C TO -6C OVER NORTHERN ALASKA
WITH FREEZING LEVELS 1000-2000 FT. MON WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE INTERIOR OR NORTH SLOPE WHILE THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA
WILL SEE WARMING OF 2-4C MON. TUE WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE ON THE
WEST COAST BUT A 2-4C WARMING OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE.

SURFACE...
A LOW NEAR YELLOWKNIFE WILL MOVE TO 200 NM EAST OF INUVIK AS A
985 MB LOW BY 4AM MON WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE LOW NORTH
OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA. THESE FEATURES WILL THEN WEAKEN SLOWLY
THROUGH TUE. WILL SEE RAIN AND SNOW SPREADING OVER THE NE CORNER
OF ALASKA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE
ABOVE 1000 FT.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LIES OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND
WESTERN CHUKCHI SEA. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE ARCTIC
COAST AND INTERIOR OF ALASKA THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL CAUSE WEST
WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE DEVELOPING MON OVER THE BARTER ISLAND AREA.
THIS WILL CAUSE DECREASING CLOUDS OVER THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA
TONIGHT AND OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR MON. FROST WILL
BE LIKELY IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR LOW LYING AREAS
EARLY MON.

A WEATHER FRONT MOVING IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA TUE WILL MOVE TO
THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WED. THIS WILL BRING EASTERLY WINDS 30 KT
AND WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA TUE-WED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SIMILAR THROUGH TUE ALOFT...AND SHOW
SIMILAR PATTERN WED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SIGHT DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVES. AT THE SURFACE THE NAM DEVELOPS A
STRONGER LOW IN MACKENZIE BAY ON TUE THAN THE GFS OR ECMF. PREFER
THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION AS THE MAIN LOW REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND THE WARM AIR PUSHING NORTH AT LOW LEVELS OVER THE COLD WATER
IS NOT INDUCIVE TO DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW. STILL EXPECT
WESTERLY GALE FORCE WEST WINDS NEAR BARTER ISLAND MON NIGHT AND
TUE EVEN USING GFS SOLUTION...BUT NEED TO BE AWARE OF POTENTIAL
FOR MORE WINDS.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF NEAR SHISHMAREF ENDING THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH SURF POSSIBLE NEAR BARTER ISLAND MON INTO TUE.
NONE WED THROUGH FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GRADUAL DECREASING RH IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR MON AND
EASTERN INTERIOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOOSE CREEK DAM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BACKING UP FLOW THROUGH
MON OR TUE. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHENA HIGH FROM THE MOOSE CREEK DAM
DOWNSTREAM TO ITS MOUTH AT THE TANANA RIVER THROUGH MON OR TUE.
THIS WILL CAUSE AREAS THAT NOW HAVE MINOR FLOODING ON THE LOWER
CHENA TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON OR TUE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ204-AKZ207.

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR 222

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.
&&

$$

JB AUG 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 302238
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
238 PM AKDT SUN AUG 30 2015


.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE NOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA
BUILDS EAST TO A POSITION OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WED. THE RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVES INTO THIS RIDGE FROM THE WEST. THIS MEANS THE
CURRENT SHOWERY AND COLD PATTERN OVER ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA WILL
SHORT EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE WEST COAST WARMING
MON AND TUE WHILE THE INTERIOR AND ARCTIC WARMS TUE AND WED. WILL
SEE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THU THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR HUSLIA WILL MOVE SOUTH TO NEAR
ANCHORAGE BY 4AM MON. SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THIS
FEATURE WILL BECOME ISOLATED NORTH OF THE LOW TONIGHT. EXPECT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN NW FACING SLOPES WITH UP TO 2 INCHES SNOW
ACCUMULATION ABOVE 1000 FT TONIGHT. THERE ARE NW WINDS GUSTING TO
30KT WEST OF THE LOW THAT WILL DECREASE NORTH OF THE LOW.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY WILL MOVE TO
MAYO NE BY 4AM MON...TO NORTHWAY NORTH BY 4PM MON...TO TOK TO OLD
CROW BY 4AM TUE AND THEN WEAKENING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
SNOW WITH THIS TROUGH THAT WILL BECOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE. EXPECT SNOW LEVEL 2000-3000 FT WITH 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -3C TO -6C OVER NORTHERN ALASKA
WITH FREEZING LEVELS 1000-2000 FT. MON WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE INTERIOR OR NORTH SLOPE WHILE THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA
WILL SEE WARMING OF 2-4C MON. TUE WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE ON THE
WEST COAST BUT A 2-4C WARMING OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE.

SURFACE...
A LOW NEAR YELLOWKNIFE WILL MOVE TO 200 NM EAST OF INUVIK AS A
985 MB LOW BY 4AM MON WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE LOW NORTH
OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA. THESE FEATURES WILL THEN WEAKEN SLOWLY
THROUGH TUE. WILL SEE RAIN AND SNOW SPREADING OVER THE NE CORNER
OF ALASKA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE
ABOVE 1000 FT.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LIES OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND
WESTERN CHUKCHI SEA. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE ARCTIC
COAST AND INTERIOR OF ALASKA THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL CAUSE WEST
WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE DEVELOPING MON OVER THE BARTER ISLAND AREA.
THIS WILL CAUSE DECREASING CLOUDS OVER THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA
TONIGHT AND OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR MON. FROST WILL
BE LIKELY IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR LOW LYING AREAS
EARLY MON.

A WEATHER FRONT MOVING IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA TUE WILL MOVE TO
THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WED. THIS WILL BRING EASTERLY WINDS 30 KT
AND WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA TUE-WED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SIMILAR THROUGH TUE ALOFT...AND SHOW
SIMILAR PATTERN WED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SIGHT DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVES. AT THE SURFACE THE NAM DEVELOPS A
STRONGER LOW IN MACKENZIE BAY ON TUE THAN THE GFS OR ECMF. PREFER
THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION AS THE MAIN LOW REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND THE WARM AIR PUSHING NORTH AT LOW LEVELS OVER THE COLD WATER
IS NOT INDUCIVE TO DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW. STILL EXPECT
WESTERLY GALE FORCE WEST WINDS NEAR BARTER ISLAND MON NIGHT AND
TUE EVEN USING GFS SOLUTION...BUT NEED TO BE AWARE OF POTENTIAL
FOR MORE WINDS.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF NEAR SHISHMAREF ENDING THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH SURF POSSIBLE NEAR BARTER ISLAND MON INTO TUE.
NONE WED THROUGH FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GRADUAL DECREASING RH IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR MON AND
EASTERN INTERIOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOOSE CREEK DAM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BACKING UP FLOW THROUGH
MON OR TUE. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHENA HIGH FROM THE MOOSE CREEK DAM
DOWNSTREAM TO ITS MOUTH AT THE TANANA RIVER THROUGH MON OR TUE.
THIS WILL CAUSE AREAS THAT NOW HAVE MINOR FLOODING ON THE LOWER
CHENA TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON OR TUE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ204-AKZ207.

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR 222

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.
&&

$$

JB AUG 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 301032
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
232 AM AKDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA CONTINUES TO QUIET DOWN AFTER
SEVERAL DAYS WITH AN UNUSUALLY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR LATE AUGUST.
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE TREND THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH AN END TO THE WINTRY WEATHER AND A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ALL MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THEN DIVERGE SLIGHTLY
AFTER THAT. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDING FROM THE
ARCTIC COAST TO THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. A LINGERING TROUGH ALOFT DRAPED FROM THE ARCTIC COAST TO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES BELOW 0C WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS BIG PATTERN CHANGE IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE BERING SEA...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
PROGRESSING EAST TO INTERIOR ALASKA BY THURSDAY. THEREFORE A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IS IN STORE.

AT THE SURFACE...A 999 MB LOW OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH TO THE GULF OF ALASKA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL PRODUCE NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30KT AND LOCALLY HIGHER
ON THE WEST COAST FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
BERING SEA TODAY...BUT WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING FROM THE NORTH AS
THE LOW MOVES SOUTH. THUS...HIGH SURF ISSUES FOR THE SHISHMAREF
AREA WILL END BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SUNDAY
NIGHT OVER NORTHWEST CANADA AND THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COMBINED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS ALASKA...WILL INCREASE
NORTHWEST WINDS TO SMALL CRAFT IN THE EASTERN ARCTIC.

SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
BERING SEA RIDGE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE THE LOW
DEVELOPING IN NORTHWEST CANADA WILL PUSH A SLUG OF MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...PRODUCING SOME RAIN AND SNOW
IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. AS SKIES
CLEAR OVER THE INTERIOR AND COOL TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ALOFT...SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH A HARD FROST ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. DEPENDING ON HOW MANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FORM TONIGHT A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR THE FAIRBANKS AREA.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL GRADUALLY FALL IN THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS CONTINUES TO REGULATE
FLOW ON THE CHENA RIVER INTO FAIRBANKS DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN FROM
A FEW DAYS AGO. THEY ANTICIPATE ENDING OPERATIONS LATER TODAY AS
THE WATER LEVEL ON THE CHENA RIVER FALLS BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

EWP AUG 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 301032
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
232 AM AKDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA CONTINUES TO QUIET DOWN AFTER
SEVERAL DAYS WITH AN UNUSUALLY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR LATE AUGUST.
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE TREND THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH AN END TO THE WINTRY WEATHER AND A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ALL MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THEN DIVERGE SLIGHTLY
AFTER THAT. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDING FROM THE
ARCTIC COAST TO THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. A LINGERING TROUGH ALOFT DRAPED FROM THE ARCTIC COAST TO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES BELOW 0C WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS BIG PATTERN CHANGE IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE BERING SEA...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
PROGRESSING EAST TO INTERIOR ALASKA BY THURSDAY. THEREFORE A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IS IN STORE.

AT THE SURFACE...A 999 MB LOW OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH TO THE GULF OF ALASKA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL PRODUCE NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30KT AND LOCALLY HIGHER
ON THE WEST COAST FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
BERING SEA TODAY...BUT WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING FROM THE NORTH AS
THE LOW MOVES SOUTH. THUS...HIGH SURF ISSUES FOR THE SHISHMAREF
AREA WILL END BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SUNDAY
NIGHT OVER NORTHWEST CANADA AND THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COMBINED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS ALASKA...WILL INCREASE
NORTHWEST WINDS TO SMALL CRAFT IN THE EASTERN ARCTIC.

SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
BERING SEA RIDGE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE THE LOW
DEVELOPING IN NORTHWEST CANADA WILL PUSH A SLUG OF MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...PRODUCING SOME RAIN AND SNOW
IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. AS SKIES
CLEAR OVER THE INTERIOR AND COOL TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ALOFT...SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH A HARD FROST ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. DEPENDING ON HOW MANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FORM TONIGHT A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR THE FAIRBANKS AREA.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL GRADUALLY FALL IN THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS CONTINUES TO REGULATE
FLOW ON THE CHENA RIVER INTO FAIRBANKS DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN FROM
A FEW DAYS AGO. THEY ANTICIPATE ENDING OPERATIONS LATER TODAY AS
THE WATER LEVEL ON THE CHENA RIVER FALLS BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

EWP AUG 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 301032
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
232 AM AKDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA CONTINUES TO QUIET DOWN AFTER
SEVERAL DAYS WITH AN UNUSUALLY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR LATE AUGUST.
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE TREND THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH AN END TO THE WINTRY WEATHER AND A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ALL MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THEN DIVERGE SLIGHTLY
AFTER THAT. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDING FROM THE
ARCTIC COAST TO THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. A LINGERING TROUGH ALOFT DRAPED FROM THE ARCTIC COAST TO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES BELOW 0C WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS BIG PATTERN CHANGE IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE BERING SEA...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
PROGRESSING EAST TO INTERIOR ALASKA BY THURSDAY. THEREFORE A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IS IN STORE.

AT THE SURFACE...A 999 MB LOW OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH TO THE GULF OF ALASKA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL PRODUCE NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30KT AND LOCALLY HIGHER
ON THE WEST COAST FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
BERING SEA TODAY...BUT WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING FROM THE NORTH AS
THE LOW MOVES SOUTH. THUS...HIGH SURF ISSUES FOR THE SHISHMAREF
AREA WILL END BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SUNDAY
NIGHT OVER NORTHWEST CANADA AND THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COMBINED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS ALASKA...WILL INCREASE
NORTHWEST WINDS TO SMALL CRAFT IN THE EASTERN ARCTIC.

SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
BERING SEA RIDGE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE THE LOW
DEVELOPING IN NORTHWEST CANADA WILL PUSH A SLUG OF MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...PRODUCING SOME RAIN AND SNOW
IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. AS SKIES
CLEAR OVER THE INTERIOR AND COOL TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ALOFT...SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH A HARD FROST ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. DEPENDING ON HOW MANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FORM TONIGHT A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR THE FAIRBANKS AREA.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL GRADUALLY FALL IN THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS CONTINUES TO REGULATE
FLOW ON THE CHENA RIVER INTO FAIRBANKS DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN FROM
A FEW DAYS AGO. THEY ANTICIPATE ENDING OPERATIONS LATER TODAY AS
THE WATER LEVEL ON THE CHENA RIVER FALLS BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

EWP AUG 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 301032
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
232 AM AKDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA CONTINUES TO QUIET DOWN AFTER
SEVERAL DAYS WITH AN UNUSUALLY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR LATE AUGUST.
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE TREND THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH AN END TO THE WINTRY WEATHER AND A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ALL MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THEN DIVERGE SLIGHTLY
AFTER THAT. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDING FROM THE
ARCTIC COAST TO THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. A LINGERING TROUGH ALOFT DRAPED FROM THE ARCTIC COAST TO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES BELOW 0C WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS BIG PATTERN CHANGE IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE BERING SEA...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
PROGRESSING EAST TO INTERIOR ALASKA BY THURSDAY. THEREFORE A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IS IN STORE.

AT THE SURFACE...A 999 MB LOW OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH TO THE GULF OF ALASKA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL PRODUCE NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30KT AND LOCALLY HIGHER
ON THE WEST COAST FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
BERING SEA TODAY...BUT WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING FROM THE NORTH AS
THE LOW MOVES SOUTH. THUS...HIGH SURF ISSUES FOR THE SHISHMAREF
AREA WILL END BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SUNDAY
NIGHT OVER NORTHWEST CANADA AND THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COMBINED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS ALASKA...WILL INCREASE
NORTHWEST WINDS TO SMALL CRAFT IN THE EASTERN ARCTIC.

SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
BERING SEA RIDGE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE THE LOW
DEVELOPING IN NORTHWEST CANADA WILL PUSH A SLUG OF MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...PRODUCING SOME RAIN AND SNOW
IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. AS SKIES
CLEAR OVER THE INTERIOR AND COOL TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ALOFT...SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH A HARD FROST ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. DEPENDING ON HOW MANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FORM TONIGHT A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR THE FAIRBANKS AREA.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL GRADUALLY FALL IN THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS CONTINUES TO REGULATE
FLOW ON THE CHENA RIVER INTO FAIRBANKS DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN FROM
A FEW DAYS AGO. THEY ANTICIPATE ENDING OPERATIONS LATER TODAY AS
THE WATER LEVEL ON THE CHENA RIVER FALLS BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

EWP AUG 15




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