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000
FXAK69 PAFG 030057 AAA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
457 PM AKDT TUE SEP 2 2014

UPDATED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES THROUGH BOTH THE SHORT TERM AND THE MID
TERM. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE LONG TERM
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PATTERN CHANGE.

CURRENTLY A VERY WINTER LIKE 510 DAM LOW AT 500 HPA REMAINS PARKED
APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST NORTHWEST OF BARROW. A POWERFUL
FRONT EXTENDS EAST OF THE LOW PAST DEMARCATION POINT AND THEN
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MCKENZIE DELTA AND NORTHERN YUKON AND THEN
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM OLD CROW TO FORT YUKON TO FAIRBANKS TO
MCGRATH. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST INTO CANADA
THIS EVENING.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT HEAVY RAIN PUSHED THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH
WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS
REPORTING OVER 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALLOWED
FOR RAIN GENERALLY BELOW 3000 FEET. RAIN RAPIDLY CHANGED TO SNOW
THIS MORNING IN DENALI PARK WITH 5 INCHES REPORTED OVER HIGHER
PASSES. HEAVY SNOW ALSO REPORTED THROUGH ATIGUN PASS IN THE
BROOKS RANGE. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO UNDER 500 FEET
IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND TO AROUND 1500 FEET NEAR FAIRBANKS
TONIGHT.

FLOOD WARNING ISSUED FOR THE UPPER CHENA RIVER BASIN WITH REPORTS
OF OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN. A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
LITTLE CHENA RIVER. FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CHATINIKA RIVER WILL BE
DROPPED HOWEVER WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR ADDITIONAL HYDRO HEADLINES IN THE TANANA VALLEY BASIN AS
ADDITIONAL RAIN REPORTS FILTER IN.

NEXT POWERFUL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CURRENTLY ROTATING ON SHORE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST. 30 KT WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING HIGH SURF AND ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
HIGH SURF HEADLINES ALONG THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE COAST AS WINDS
BUILD TO GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW.

BLIZZARD WARNING ISSUED FOR EASTERN BROOKS RANGE ZONE 206 AS
AMPLE MOISTURE COMBINED STRONG WINDS AND UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR
MASS SWEEP OVER THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE AS THE NEXT POWERFUL
SHORTWAVE RACES EAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE TAIL END OF THE
SHORTWAVE DIPS INTO THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND WILL BE THE FOCAL
POINT FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE INTERIOR TOMORROW.

A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF ANADYR THURSDAY MORNING AND
MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE BERING STRAIT
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS AND IS LOST AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND
WILL BE LOCATED ALONG A PASC TO PAFM TO PAOM LINE FRIDAY EVENING
AND ALONG A PARC TO PFYU TO PAMC LINE SATURDAY MORNING. ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE INTERIOR.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MODELS DISPLAY DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS AS CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN BREAKS DOWN

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR ZONE S 201 AND 202. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES FOR EASTERN NORTH SLOPE COASTAL ZONES AS
SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WEST WINDS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE UPPER CHENA AND A FLOOD
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LITTLE CHENA RIVER. THE FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE CHATINIKA RIVER...HOWEVER A
HYDRO STATEMENT COVERING HIGH WATER LEVELS IS IN THE WORKS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ207.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ206.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

FLOOD WARNING FOR THE UPPER CHENA RIVER

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LITTLE CHENA

&&

$$

CCC SEP 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 022201
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
201 PM AKDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES THROUGH BOTH THE SHORT TERM AND THE MID
TERM. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE LONG TERM
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PATTERN CHANGE.

CURRENTLY A VERY WINTER LIKE 510 DAM LOW AT 500 HPA REMAINS PARKED
APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST NORTHWEST OF BARROW. A POWERFUL
FRONT EXTENDS EAST OF THE LOW PAST DEMARCATION POINT AND THEN
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MCKENZIE DELTA AND NORTHERN YUKON AND THEN
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM OLD CROW TO FORT YUKON TO FAIRBANKS TO
MCGRATH. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST INTO CANADA
THIS EVENING.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT HEAVY RAIN PUSHED THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH
WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS
REPORTING OVER 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALLOWED
FOR RAIN GENERALLY BELOW 3000 FEET. RAIN RAPIDLY CHANGED TO SNOW
THIS MORNING IN DENALI PARK WITH 5 INCHES REPORTED OVER HIGHER
PASSES. HEAVY SNOW ALSO REPORTED THROUGH ATIGUN PASS IN THE
BROOKS RANGE. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO UNDER 500 FEET
IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND TO AROUND 1500 FEET NEAR FAIRBANKS
TONIGHT.

FLOOD WARNING ISSUED FOR THE UPPER CHENA RIVER BASIN WITH REPORTS
OF OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN. A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
LITTLE CHENA RIVER. FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CHATINIKA RIVER WILL BE
DROPPED HOWEVER WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR ADDITIONAL HYDRO HEADLINES IN THE TANANA VALLEY BASIN AS
ADDITIONAL RAIN REPORTS FILTER IN.

NEXT POWERFUL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CURRENTLY ROTATING ON SHORE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST. 30 KT WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING HIGH SURF AND ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
HIGH SURF HEADLINES ALONG THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE COAST AS WINDS
BUILD TO GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW.

BLIZZARD WARNING ISSUED FOR EASTERN BROOKS RANGE ZONE 206 AS
AMPLE MOISTURE COMBINED STRONG WINDS AND UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR
MASS SWEEP OVER THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE AS THE NEXT POWERFUL
SHORTWAVE RACES EAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE TAIL END OF THE
SHORTWAVE DIPS INTO THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND WILL BE THE FOCAL
POINT FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE INTERIOR TOMORROW.

A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF ANADYR THURSDAY MORNING AND
MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE BERING STRAIT
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS AND IS LOST AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND
WILL BE LOCATED ALONG A PASC TO PAFM TO PAOM LINE FRIDAY EVENING
AND ALONG A PARC TO PFYU TO PAMC LINE SATURDAY MORNING. ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE INTERIOR.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MODELS DISPLAY DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS AS CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN BREAKS DOWN

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR ZONE S 201 AND 202. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES FOR EASTERN NORTH SLOPE COASTAL ZONES AS
SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WEST WINDS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE UPPER CHENA AND A FLOOD
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LITTLE CHENA RIVER. THE FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE CHATINIKA RIVER...HOWEVER A
HYDRO STATEMENT COVERING HIGH WATER LEVELS IS IN THE WORKS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ206

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202.

FLOOD WARNING FOR THE UPPER CHENA

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LITTLE CHENA

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CCC SEP 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 022201
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
201 PM AKDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES THROUGH BOTH THE SHORT TERM AND THE MID
TERM. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE LONG TERM
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PATTERN CHANGE.

CURRENTLY A VERY WINTER LIKE 510 DAM LOW AT 500 HPA REMAINS PARKED
APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST NORTHWEST OF BARROW. A POWERFUL
FRONT EXTENDS EAST OF THE LOW PAST DEMARCATION POINT AND THEN
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MCKENZIE DELTA AND NORTHERN YUKON AND THEN
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM OLD CROW TO FORT YUKON TO FAIRBANKS TO
MCGRATH. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST INTO CANADA
THIS EVENING.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT HEAVY RAIN PUSHED THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH
WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS
REPORTING OVER 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALLOWED
FOR RAIN GENERALLY BELOW 3000 FEET. RAIN RAPIDLY CHANGED TO SNOW
THIS MORNING IN DENALI PARK WITH 5 INCHES REPORTED OVER HIGHER
PASSES. HEAVY SNOW ALSO REPORTED THROUGH ATIGUN PASS IN THE
BROOKS RANGE. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO UNDER 500 FEET
IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND TO AROUND 1500 FEET NEAR FAIRBANKS
TONIGHT.

FLOOD WARNING ISSUED FOR THE UPPER CHENA RIVER BASIN WITH REPORTS
OF OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN. A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
LITTLE CHENA RIVER. FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CHATINIKA RIVER WILL BE
DROPPED HOWEVER WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR ADDITIONAL HYDRO HEADLINES IN THE TANANA VALLEY BASIN AS
ADDITIONAL RAIN REPORTS FILTER IN.

NEXT POWERFUL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CURRENTLY ROTATING ON SHORE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST. 30 KT WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING HIGH SURF AND ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
HIGH SURF HEADLINES ALONG THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE COAST AS WINDS
BUILD TO GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW.

BLIZZARD WARNING ISSUED FOR EASTERN BROOKS RANGE ZONE 206 AS
AMPLE MOISTURE COMBINED STRONG WINDS AND UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR
MASS SWEEP OVER THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE AS THE NEXT POWERFUL
SHORTWAVE RACES EAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE TAIL END OF THE
SHORTWAVE DIPS INTO THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND WILL BE THE FOCAL
POINT FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE INTERIOR TOMORROW.

A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF ANADYR THURSDAY MORNING AND
MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE BERING STRAIT
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS AND IS LOST AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND
WILL BE LOCATED ALONG A PASC TO PAFM TO PAOM LINE FRIDAY EVENING
AND ALONG A PARC TO PFYU TO PAMC LINE SATURDAY MORNING. ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE INTERIOR.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MODELS DISPLAY DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS AS CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN BREAKS DOWN

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR ZONE S 201 AND 202. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES FOR EASTERN NORTH SLOPE COASTAL ZONES AS
SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WEST WINDS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE UPPER CHENA AND A FLOOD
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LITTLE CHENA RIVER. THE FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE CHATINIKA RIVER...HOWEVER A
HYDRO STATEMENT COVERING HIGH WATER LEVELS IS IN THE WORKS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ206

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202.

FLOOD WARNING FOR THE UPPER CHENA

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LITTLE CHENA

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CCC SEP 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 021314
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
514 AM AKDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ROUGHLY 48 HOURS. MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW NORTH OF POINT LAY WILL MOVE TO NORTH OF DEMARCATION
POINT BY WED AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS SPAWNED A FEW
SURFACE LOWS AND IS CURRENTLY VERTICALLY STACKED. SECONDARY
SURFACE LOWS ARE JUST NORTH OF MACKENZIE BAY AND ANOTHER ONE NEAR
ARCTIC VILLAGE. FROM THE MACKENZIE BAY LOW AND BACK TO THE ARCTIC
VILLAGE LOW EXTENDS A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT.

THE LOWER LEVEL JET IS RIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT AND THIS BRINGING
IN TONS OF MOISTURE TO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE WHICH HAS
ALREADY PROVIDED IN SOME PLACES UP NEAR 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. ONE
INCH PLUS AMOUNTS ARE VERY COMMON FROM THE ALASKA RANGE NORTH
THROUGH FAIRBANKS.

MEANWHILE VERY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN THE BROOKS RANGE HAS
BEEN OCCURRING FOR THE PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS. SNOWFALL MODELS ARE
DOING A VERY POOR JOB OVERALL BUT MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
BROOKS RANGE THAN OTHER LOCATIONS IS THE BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT
WITH NOT MUCH DATA AVAILABLE.

WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THE WINDS HAVE FAILED
TO BE REALIZED AT MOST OF THE VALLEY LEVEL LOCATIONS. THE HIGHER
LEVEL LOCATIONS ARE SEEING INCREASED WINDS BUT SO FAR NOT TO THE
POINT AS ORIGINALLY BELIEVED THEY WOULD BE AT THE VALLEY.



COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTION OF NORTHERN ALASKA WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE AND SOME WILL
LIKELY REACH FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVERS HAVE BEGUN TO REGISTER THE
UPWARD TREND AS OF TUE MORNING.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ206.

FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ222-AKZ224.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ218-AKZ225.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CF SEP 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 021314
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
514 AM AKDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ROUGHLY 48 HOURS. MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW NORTH OF POINT LAY WILL MOVE TO NORTH OF DEMARCATION
POINT BY WED AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS SPAWNED A FEW
SURFACE LOWS AND IS CURRENTLY VERTICALLY STACKED. SECONDARY
SURFACE LOWS ARE JUST NORTH OF MACKENZIE BAY AND ANOTHER ONE NEAR
ARCTIC VILLAGE. FROM THE MACKENZIE BAY LOW AND BACK TO THE ARCTIC
VILLAGE LOW EXTENDS A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT.

THE LOWER LEVEL JET IS RIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT AND THIS BRINGING
IN TONS OF MOISTURE TO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE WHICH HAS
ALREADY PROVIDED IN SOME PLACES UP NEAR 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. ONE
INCH PLUS AMOUNTS ARE VERY COMMON FROM THE ALASKA RANGE NORTH
THROUGH FAIRBANKS.

MEANWHILE VERY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN THE BROOKS RANGE HAS
BEEN OCCURRING FOR THE PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS. SNOWFALL MODELS ARE
DOING A VERY POOR JOB OVERALL BUT MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
BROOKS RANGE THAN OTHER LOCATIONS IS THE BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT
WITH NOT MUCH DATA AVAILABLE.

WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THE WINDS HAVE FAILED
TO BE REALIZED AT MOST OF THE VALLEY LEVEL LOCATIONS. THE HIGHER
LEVEL LOCATIONS ARE SEEING INCREASED WINDS BUT SO FAR NOT TO THE
POINT AS ORIGINALLY BELIEVED THEY WOULD BE AT THE VALLEY.



COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTION OF NORTHERN ALASKA WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE AND SOME WILL
LIKELY REACH FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVERS HAVE BEGUN TO REGISTER THE
UPWARD TREND AS OF TUE MORNING.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ206.

FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ222-AKZ224.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ218-AKZ225.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CF SEP 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 020247
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
647 PM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A LARGE VARIETY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING OR EXPECTED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SIMILAR ON THE
MAJOR FEATURES OUT THROUGH 4 AM THU.

A WINTER DEPTH UPPER LOW...ABOUT 502 DAM AT 500 MB...IS CENTERED
ABOUT 250 NM NORTH NORTHWEST OF BARROW. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED
TO MOVE TO JUST NORTH OF BARROW BY 10 PM TUE AND TO ABOUT 150 NM
NORTH NORTHEAST OF DEMARCATION POINT BY 10 PM WED. WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH
THU.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOT EASILY RECOGNIZABLE IN THE 500 MB
HEIGHT FIELD...IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE ALASKA WEST COAST
AND NORTHWEST ALASKA AND WILL SWEEP EASTWARD TO THE ALCAN BORDER
BY 4 PM WED. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM DEMARCATION POINT TO
EASTERN NORTON SOUND AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. BY 10 AM TUE THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR
EAGLE TO THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE AND SOUTHWESTWARD.

THERE ARE VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT
WITH THIS WEATHER PATTERN WHICH IS VERY RARE THIS EARLY IN THE
SEASON AND MUCH MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF AN ACTIVE WINTER STORM
PATTERN. A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH AS
60-65 KT AT 850 MB...WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR
OVERNIGHT. A 995 MB SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT HALFWAY
BETWEEN BETTLES AND AMBLER AND THE 6 HOUR PROG FROM THE 18Z GFS
RUN IS VERIFYING WELL ON THE LOW POSITION AND CENTRAL PRESSURE.
THE FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY THIS LOW CENTER RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ALASKA INTERIOR TONIGHT. BY 4AM TUE THE LOW
CENTER WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE NEAR THE
ALCAN BORDER...AND MOVING TO 250 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF BARTER
ISLAND BY 10 AM TUE...MAINTAINING A 996 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT ARE PRODUCING A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1.8
INCHES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE UPPER KOBUK VALLEY...UP TO 1.3 INCHES
IN THE NULATO HILLS...AND ABOUT AN INCH OVER THE UPPER KOBUK AND
NOATAK VALLEYS. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO A 0.5 INCH
HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AT SOME SITES IN THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY.
THE PEDRO DOME WSR-88D IS INDICATING WIDESPREAD ESTIMATED
INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL RATES RANGING FROM 0.2 TO AS MUCH AS
0.6-0.8 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HEAVY RAIN AREA. WHILE THESE
ARE ONLY UNVERIFIED ESTIMATES...IT IS GOOD INDICATION THAT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY STRATIFORM RAIN IS OCCURRING.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...CENTRAL INTERIOR...MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY...DENALI... AND
NEARBY AREAS IN ZONES 223 AND 224. CURRENT GFS AND NAM INDICATING
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR ZONE. UP TO AN INCH IS
EXPECTED IN DENALI AND WESTERN PARTS OF ZONE 223 DURING THE SAME
TIME PERIOD. WITH THE VERY STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT...THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN THE
CHENA AND CHATANIKA BASINS...RESULTING IN LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
HIGHER THAN THE MODEL FORECASTS. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE FLOODING ON THE UPPER CHENA RIVER... LITTLE CHENA
RIVER...AND THE CHATANIKA RIVER. FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THESE RIVERS. HIGH WATER LEVELS MAY ALSO OCCUR ON THE SMALLER
STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES FEEDING INTO THESE RIVERS. DUE TO THE LOW
FREEZING LEVELS...NO FLOOD ISSUES ARE EXPECTED IN THE ALASKA
RANGE. HOWEVER... SIGNIFICANT AND RARE HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS EARLY
IN THE SEASON IS EXPECTED IN DENALI PARK...WHERE AMOUNTS OF 6 TO
14 INCHES ARE EXPECTED AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET MSL. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ON HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
DENALI PARK ROAD TODAY.

THE RAPIDLY MOVING SURFACE LOW WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND RAPID PRESSURE RISES OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THIS COMBINED
WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WILL
PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE SUMMITS ON
HIGHWAYS IN ZONES 220-221 AND 222 TONIGHT. WIND ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR ZONES 220-221 AND 222.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN THE BROOKS RANGE AND TAPER OFF
TUE MORNING. SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ARE
EXPECTED.

ON THE WEST COAST...WINDS OVER NORTON SOUND ARE DECREASING
AND SEA LEVELS ALONG THE EASTERN NORTON SOUND SHORELINE
WILL BE FALLING THIS EVENING.

OVER THE ARCTIC REGION...A 985 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 NM
NORTH NORTHWEST OF BARROW WILL MOVE TO ABOUT 50 NM NORTH OF
BARROW BY 4 PM TUE...BECOMING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA BY 4 AM WED. THIS LOW WILL GENERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KT OVER THE WEST COAST AND ADJACENT
MARINE AREAS BEGINNING LATE MON NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WED
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL PRODUCE HIGH SEAS AND SURF ALONG THE
COAST FROM BARROW WESTWARD...ALONG WITH HIGH SURFACE AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED MINOR BEACH EROSION. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 25-30 KT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE
ARCTIC COAST AND ADJOINING MARINE AREAS TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING.

BEYOND THE SHORT TERM...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL ARRIVE ON THE WEST COAST AND
NORTHWEST ALASKA TUE AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST TO THE ALCAN BORDER
BY WED AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN THAT EXPECTED
IN THE CURRENT ONGOING EVENT.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE NULATO
HILLS...AND A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED RIVERS AND STREAMS
IN THAT AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE CHENA AND
CHATANIKA RIVER BASINS WILL LIKELY BRING THE UPPER CHENA
RIVER...CHATANIKA RIVER...AND THE LITTLE CHENA ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE RIVERS.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY...AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY...AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ212.
WINTER STORM WARNING...AKZ206-AKZ225.
FLOOD WATCH...AKZ222-AKZ224.
FLOOD ADVISORY...AKZ212-AKZ216.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...AKZ218.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY....PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

&&

$$

RF SEP 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 020247
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
647 PM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A LARGE VARIETY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING OR EXPECTED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SIMILAR ON THE
MAJOR FEATURES OUT THROUGH 4 AM THU.

A WINTER DEPTH UPPER LOW...ABOUT 502 DAM AT 500 MB...IS CENTERED
ABOUT 250 NM NORTH NORTHWEST OF BARROW. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED
TO MOVE TO JUST NORTH OF BARROW BY 10 PM TUE AND TO ABOUT 150 NM
NORTH NORTHEAST OF DEMARCATION POINT BY 10 PM WED. WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH
THU.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOT EASILY RECOGNIZABLE IN THE 500 MB
HEIGHT FIELD...IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE ALASKA WEST COAST
AND NORTHWEST ALASKA AND WILL SWEEP EASTWARD TO THE ALCAN BORDER
BY 4 PM WED. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM DEMARCATION POINT TO
EASTERN NORTON SOUND AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. BY 10 AM TUE THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR
EAGLE TO THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE AND SOUTHWESTWARD.

THERE ARE VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT
WITH THIS WEATHER PATTERN WHICH IS VERY RARE THIS EARLY IN THE
SEASON AND MUCH MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF AN ACTIVE WINTER STORM
PATTERN. A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH AS
60-65 KT AT 850 MB...WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR
OVERNIGHT. A 995 MB SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT HALFWAY
BETWEEN BETTLES AND AMBLER AND THE 6 HOUR PROG FROM THE 18Z GFS
RUN IS VERIFYING WELL ON THE LOW POSITION AND CENTRAL PRESSURE.
THE FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY THIS LOW CENTER RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ALASKA INTERIOR TONIGHT. BY 4AM TUE THE LOW
CENTER WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE NEAR THE
ALCAN BORDER...AND MOVING TO 250 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF BARTER
ISLAND BY 10 AM TUE...MAINTAINING A 996 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT ARE PRODUCING A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1.8
INCHES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE UPPER KOBUK VALLEY...UP TO 1.3 INCHES
IN THE NULATO HILLS...AND ABOUT AN INCH OVER THE UPPER KOBUK AND
NOATAK VALLEYS. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO A 0.5 INCH
HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AT SOME SITES IN THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY.
THE PEDRO DOME WSR-88D IS INDICATING WIDESPREAD ESTIMATED
INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL RATES RANGING FROM 0.2 TO AS MUCH AS
0.6-0.8 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HEAVY RAIN AREA. WHILE THESE
ARE ONLY UNVERIFIED ESTIMATES...IT IS GOOD INDICATION THAT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY STRATIFORM RAIN IS OCCURRING.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...CENTRAL INTERIOR...MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY...DENALI... AND
NEARBY AREAS IN ZONES 223 AND 224. CURRENT GFS AND NAM INDICATING
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR ZONE. UP TO AN INCH IS
EXPECTED IN DENALI AND WESTERN PARTS OF ZONE 223 DURING THE SAME
TIME PERIOD. WITH THE VERY STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT...THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN THE
CHENA AND CHATANIKA BASINS...RESULTING IN LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
HIGHER THAN THE MODEL FORECASTS. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE FLOODING ON THE UPPER CHENA RIVER... LITTLE CHENA
RIVER...AND THE CHATANIKA RIVER. FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THESE RIVERS. HIGH WATER LEVELS MAY ALSO OCCUR ON THE SMALLER
STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES FEEDING INTO THESE RIVERS. DUE TO THE LOW
FREEZING LEVELS...NO FLOOD ISSUES ARE EXPECTED IN THE ALASKA
RANGE. HOWEVER... SIGNIFICANT AND RARE HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS EARLY
IN THE SEASON IS EXPECTED IN DENALI PARK...WHERE AMOUNTS OF 6 TO
14 INCHES ARE EXPECTED AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET MSL. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ON HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
DENALI PARK ROAD TODAY.

THE RAPIDLY MOVING SURFACE LOW WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND RAPID PRESSURE RISES OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THIS COMBINED
WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WILL
PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE SUMMITS ON
HIGHWAYS IN ZONES 220-221 AND 222 TONIGHT. WIND ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR ZONES 220-221 AND 222.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN THE BROOKS RANGE AND TAPER OFF
TUE MORNING. SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ARE
EXPECTED.

ON THE WEST COAST...WINDS OVER NORTON SOUND ARE DECREASING
AND SEA LEVELS ALONG THE EASTERN NORTON SOUND SHORELINE
WILL BE FALLING THIS EVENING.

OVER THE ARCTIC REGION...A 985 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 NM
NORTH NORTHWEST OF BARROW WILL MOVE TO ABOUT 50 NM NORTH OF
BARROW BY 4 PM TUE...BECOMING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA BY 4 AM WED. THIS LOW WILL GENERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KT OVER THE WEST COAST AND ADJACENT
MARINE AREAS BEGINNING LATE MON NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WED
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL PRODUCE HIGH SEAS AND SURF ALONG THE
COAST FROM BARROW WESTWARD...ALONG WITH HIGH SURFACE AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED MINOR BEACH EROSION. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 25-30 KT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE
ARCTIC COAST AND ADJOINING MARINE AREAS TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING.

BEYOND THE SHORT TERM...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL ARRIVE ON THE WEST COAST AND
NORTHWEST ALASKA TUE AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST TO THE ALCAN BORDER
BY WED AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN THAT EXPECTED
IN THE CURRENT ONGOING EVENT.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE NULATO
HILLS...AND A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED RIVERS AND STREAMS
IN THAT AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE CHENA AND
CHATANIKA RIVER BASINS WILL LIKELY BRING THE UPPER CHENA
RIVER...CHATANIKA RIVER...AND THE LITTLE CHENA ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE RIVERS.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY...AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY...AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ212.
WINTER STORM WARNING...AKZ206-AKZ225.
FLOOD WATCH...AKZ222-AKZ224.
FLOOD ADVISORY...AKZ212-AKZ216.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...AKZ218.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY....PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

&&

$$

RF SEP 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 011028
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
228 AM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK BEFORE DEPARTING ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH OF MAINLAND ALASKA. CURRENT WINTER
DEPTH 500 DAM LOW AT 500 HPA IS LOCATED 250 M NORTHWEST OF BARROW
WILL WOBBLE ON A CYCLONIC LOOPING TRAJECTORY TO BE ABOUT ABOUT 50
NM NORTH OF BARROW WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THEN
MOVES RAPIDLY TO THE EAST TO BE 150 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A 516 DAM LOW.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEK. FOCUS CONTINUES TO
BE ON THE FIRST AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE WHICH IS NOW PLOWING ITS
WAY INTO THE WESTERN ALASKA. A 996 MB WHICH IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
OVER NORTON SOUND WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO BE LOCATED NEAR PABT
MONDAY NIGHT AND PARC TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE INTERIOR AND STALLS EAST WEST ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCED UPSLOPE WILL
GENERATE HEAVY PRECIP OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STORM TOTAL PRECIP VALUES OF 1
INCH OR MORE FROM THE NULATO HILLS EAST TO THE KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS
IN WESTERN ALASKA AND 1 TO 2 INCH STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES IN THE
WESTERN ALASKA RANGE. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE
WILL LIKELY RECEIVE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OF PRECIP. WIDESPREAD
SWATH STORM TOTAL RAIN FALL TOTALS OF 1 INCH OR MORE IS FORECAST
FROM THE NULATO HILLS EAST TO THE FAIRBANKS AREA AND ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL FROM DENALI NATIONAL
PARK TO FAIRBANKS WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY. AGAIN
SOME LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE OVER 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP
FOR AROUND 5000 FT TUESDAY MORNING TO AROUND 3000 FT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO DROP TUESDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN ALASKA
RANGE. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OR TRAVEL PLANS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINTER CONDITIONS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP IN THE BROOKS RANGE FROM AROUND 3000 FT THIS
MORNING TO VALLEY LEVEL TUESDAY MORNING. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ARE LIKELY IN THE BROOKS RANGE. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OR
TRAVEL PLANS IN THE BROOKS RANGE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINTER
CONDITIONS.

STRONG 850 MB WINDS IN THE 45 KT TO 60KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED WITH
TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.
WIND ADVISORIES ARE HOISTED FOR ZONES 221...222 AND 220 AS WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR HIGHWAY SUMMITS AND
HILLS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
SURGE MODELS INDICATE 2 TO 3 FOOT SURGE VALUES IN EASTERN NORTON
SOUND THOUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF AROUND 8 FEET WELL
OFF SHORE BUT CONSIDERABLY LOWER NEAR SHORE. ON SHORE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25 KTS...CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR HIGH SURF.
SURGE MODELS INDICATE 1.5 FOOT SURGE ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST
NEAR ICY CAPE AND AROUND 1 FOOT NEAR BARROW WITH 6 TO 8 FOOT WAVES
OFF SHORE TUESDAY. FETCH IS REASONABLE IN BOTH CASES HOWEVER WIND
DURATION AND MAGNITUDE WILL LIMIT HIGH SURF.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS WILL LIMIT FLASHY RESPONSE IN HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE ALASKA RANGE SO NO SMALL STREAM ISSUES ARE EXPECTED
HOWEVER HYDRO MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STREAMS AND RIVERS IN
THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY WILL LIKELY RISE TO ACTION STAGE BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CCC SEP 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 011028
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
228 AM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK BEFORE DEPARTING ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH OF MAINLAND ALASKA. CURRENT WINTER
DEPTH 500 DAM LOW AT 500 HPA IS LOCATED 250 M NORTHWEST OF BARROW
WILL WOBBLE ON A CYCLONIC LOOPING TRAJECTORY TO BE ABOUT ABOUT 50
NM NORTH OF BARROW WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THEN
MOVES RAPIDLY TO THE EAST TO BE 150 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A 516 DAM LOW.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEK. FOCUS CONTINUES TO
BE ON THE FIRST AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE WHICH IS NOW PLOWING ITS
WAY INTO THE WESTERN ALASKA. A 996 MB WHICH IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
OVER NORTON SOUND WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO BE LOCATED NEAR PABT
MONDAY NIGHT AND PARC TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE INTERIOR AND STALLS EAST WEST ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCED UPSLOPE WILL
GENERATE HEAVY PRECIP OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STORM TOTAL PRECIP VALUES OF 1
INCH OR MORE FROM THE NULATO HILLS EAST TO THE KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS
IN WESTERN ALASKA AND 1 TO 2 INCH STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES IN THE
WESTERN ALASKA RANGE. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE
WILL LIKELY RECEIVE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OF PRECIP. WIDESPREAD
SWATH STORM TOTAL RAIN FALL TOTALS OF 1 INCH OR MORE IS FORECAST
FROM THE NULATO HILLS EAST TO THE FAIRBANKS AREA AND ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL FROM DENALI NATIONAL
PARK TO FAIRBANKS WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY. AGAIN
SOME LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE OVER 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP
FOR AROUND 5000 FT TUESDAY MORNING TO AROUND 3000 FT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO DROP TUESDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN ALASKA
RANGE. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OR TRAVEL PLANS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINTER CONDITIONS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP IN THE BROOKS RANGE FROM AROUND 3000 FT THIS
MORNING TO VALLEY LEVEL TUESDAY MORNING. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ARE LIKELY IN THE BROOKS RANGE. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OR
TRAVEL PLANS IN THE BROOKS RANGE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINTER
CONDITIONS.

STRONG 850 MB WINDS IN THE 45 KT TO 60KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED WITH
TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.
WIND ADVISORIES ARE HOISTED FOR ZONES 221...222 AND 220 AS WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR HIGHWAY SUMMITS AND
HILLS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
SURGE MODELS INDICATE 2 TO 3 FOOT SURGE VALUES IN EASTERN NORTON
SOUND THOUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF AROUND 8 FEET WELL
OFF SHORE BUT CONSIDERABLY LOWER NEAR SHORE. ON SHORE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25 KTS...CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR HIGH SURF.
SURGE MODELS INDICATE 1.5 FOOT SURGE ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST
NEAR ICY CAPE AND AROUND 1 FOOT NEAR BARROW WITH 6 TO 8 FOOT WAVES
OFF SHORE TUESDAY. FETCH IS REASONABLE IN BOTH CASES HOWEVER WIND
DURATION AND MAGNITUDE WILL LIMIT HIGH SURF.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS WILL LIMIT FLASHY RESPONSE IN HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE ALASKA RANGE SO NO SMALL STREAM ISSUES ARE EXPECTED
HOWEVER HYDRO MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STREAMS AND RIVERS IN
THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY WILL LIKELY RISE TO ACTION STAGE BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CCC SEP 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 312031
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1231 PM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT UPPER AIR PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT THROUGH 4 PM
THU. A DEEP WINTER DEPTH UPPER LOW...ABOUT 506 DAM AT 500 MB...IS
LOCATED NEAR 74N/165W...ABOUT 200 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW. THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ON A CYCLONIC LOOPING TRAJECTORY TO BE ABOUT
50 NM NORTHEAST OF BARROW BY 4 AM WED...THEN MOVING RAPIDLY
EASTWARD TO ABOUT 100 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY 4 PM
WED...WHILE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TO A STILL LOW 516 DAM CENTER.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL
SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NEXT
INCOMING SHORT WAVE...WHICH WILL BE RATHER STRONG...WILL ARRIVE
IN NORTHWEST ALASKA LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD TO THE
ALCAN BORDER BY TUE AFTERNOON WHILE SMOOTHING OUT IN
AMPLITUDE...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT IN THE 500 MB HEIGHT
FIELD. WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...A 998-1000 MB SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BERING STRAIT OR OVER THE
SEWARD PENINSULA BY MON MORNING. THE FAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
CARRY THE SURFACE SYSTEM RAPIDLY EASTWARD. BY TUE AFTERNOON THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN TO ABOUT A 995 MB CENTER ABOUT 50 NM
NORTHWEST OF HUSLIA...AND TO THE BROOKS RANGE NEAR THE ALCAN
BORDER BY 4 AM TUE. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL SWEEP
EASTWARD AND STALL OUT ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE TUE AND TUE NIGHT.
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE 0.25 TO 1 INCH OVER
THE WEST COAST...WESTERN AND NORTHERN INTERIOR WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS
OVER AN INCH. OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH ARE EXPECTED. THE HEAVIEST EVENT
TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
CENTRAL INTERIOR...0.75 TO 1+ INCHES ZONE 222...1 TO 2 INCHES.
DENALI...1 TO 2 INCHES...LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...1 TO 2+ INCHES.
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY...1 TO 2 INCHES.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN INTERIOR. IN THE ALASKA RANGE...THE SNOW LEVEL IS EXPECTED
TO BE 4000-5000 FT MON AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT...LOWERING TO
3500-4000 FT BY TUE AFTERNOON...AND TO AROUND 2500 FT BY WED
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD REDUCE THE RAINFALL RUNOFF INTO SMALL
STREAMS SO SMALL STREAM FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A STRONG
THREAT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE THE PASS LEVEL IN THE WESTERN
ALASKA RANGE. IN THE BROOKS RANGE...SNOW LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE ANY HIGHER THAN 3000 FT MON AFTERNOON THROUGH WED. OVER THE
ARCTIC SLOPE...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE SURFACE TO 1000
FT MON NIGHT THROUGH WED.

STRONG 850 MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE...AS HIGH
AS 45 TO 70 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AREAS MON AND MON NIGHT.
EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER INTERIOR HIGHWAY
SUMMITS AND PASSES MON AND MON NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE FAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL
ARRIVE IN NORTHWEST ALASKA TUE...MOVING TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY
WED AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SHORT WAVE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS...AND BE LIMITED MAINLY TO THE NORTH
SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE. A THIRD SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE OVER
NORTHWEST ALASKA THU MORNING...MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THU NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS WAVE IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND BE
RESTRICTED MAINLY TO THE ARCTIC SLOPE.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
SEA ELEVATIONS OF 1.5 TO A LITTLE OVER 3 FEET EXPECTED IN NORTON
SOUND LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT. THE HIGHEST SEA
LEVEL RISES...A LITTLE OVER 3 FEET...WILL BE OVER EASTERN NORTON
SOUND MON AFTERNOON AND MON EVENING. SEAS COULD BE AS HIGH AS
8 FEET OFFSHORE OVER EASTERN NORTON SOUND...BUT LOWER NEAR SHORE.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KT TUE THROUGH TUE EVENING COULD
PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF ON THE ARCTIC COAST FROM BARROW WESTWARD.
SEAS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 6-8 FEET NOT TOO FAR OFFSHORE. MAXIMUM
SEA LEVEL ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 1.5 FEET AT ICY CAPE
AND ABOUT 1 FOOT AT BARROW.

&&


.HYDROLOGY...
SEE MAIN DISCUSSION FOR EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. NO SMALL
STREAM FLOOD ISSUES ARE EXPECTED IN THE ALASKA RANGE AT THIS TIME
DUE TO THE LOWERING FREEZING AND SNOW LEVELS. IN THE MIDDLE
TANANA VALLEY...FORECAST RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN THE UPPER
CHENA RIVER RISING TO ACTION STAGE BY EARLY WED MORNING.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
WIND ADVISORY...OVER SUMMITS IN AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

&&

$$

RF AUG 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 312031
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1231 PM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT UPPER AIR PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT THROUGH 4 PM
THU. A DEEP WINTER DEPTH UPPER LOW...ABOUT 506 DAM AT 500 MB...IS
LOCATED NEAR 74N/165W...ABOUT 200 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW. THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ON A CYCLONIC LOOPING TRAJECTORY TO BE ABOUT
50 NM NORTHEAST OF BARROW BY 4 AM WED...THEN MOVING RAPIDLY
EASTWARD TO ABOUT 100 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY 4 PM
WED...WHILE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TO A STILL LOW 516 DAM CENTER.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL
SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NEXT
INCOMING SHORT WAVE...WHICH WILL BE RATHER STRONG...WILL ARRIVE
IN NORTHWEST ALASKA LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD TO THE
ALCAN BORDER BY TUE AFTERNOON WHILE SMOOTHING OUT IN
AMPLITUDE...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT IN THE 500 MB HEIGHT
FIELD. WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...A 998-1000 MB SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BERING STRAIT OR OVER THE
SEWARD PENINSULA BY MON MORNING. THE FAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
CARRY THE SURFACE SYSTEM RAPIDLY EASTWARD. BY TUE AFTERNOON THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN TO ABOUT A 995 MB CENTER ABOUT 50 NM
NORTHWEST OF HUSLIA...AND TO THE BROOKS RANGE NEAR THE ALCAN
BORDER BY 4 AM TUE. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL SWEEP
EASTWARD AND STALL OUT ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE TUE AND TUE NIGHT.
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE 0.25 TO 1 INCH OVER
THE WEST COAST...WESTERN AND NORTHERN INTERIOR WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS
OVER AN INCH. OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH ARE EXPECTED. THE HEAVIEST EVENT
TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
CENTRAL INTERIOR...0.75 TO 1+ INCHES ZONE 222...1 TO 2 INCHES.
DENALI...1 TO 2 INCHES...LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...1 TO 2+ INCHES.
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY...1 TO 2 INCHES.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN INTERIOR. IN THE ALASKA RANGE...THE SNOW LEVEL IS EXPECTED
TO BE 4000-5000 FT MON AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT...LOWERING TO
3500-4000 FT BY TUE AFTERNOON...AND TO AROUND 2500 FT BY WED
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD REDUCE THE RAINFALL RUNOFF INTO SMALL
STREAMS SO SMALL STREAM FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A STRONG
THREAT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE THE PASS LEVEL IN THE WESTERN
ALASKA RANGE. IN THE BROOKS RANGE...SNOW LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE ANY HIGHER THAN 3000 FT MON AFTERNOON THROUGH WED. OVER THE
ARCTIC SLOPE...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE SURFACE TO 1000
FT MON NIGHT THROUGH WED.

STRONG 850 MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE...AS HIGH
AS 45 TO 70 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AREAS MON AND MON NIGHT.
EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER INTERIOR HIGHWAY
SUMMITS AND PASSES MON AND MON NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE FAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL
ARRIVE IN NORTHWEST ALASKA TUE...MOVING TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY
WED AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SHORT WAVE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS...AND BE LIMITED MAINLY TO THE NORTH
SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE. A THIRD SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE OVER
NORTHWEST ALASKA THU MORNING...MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THU NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS WAVE IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND BE
RESTRICTED MAINLY TO THE ARCTIC SLOPE.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
SEA ELEVATIONS OF 1.5 TO A LITTLE OVER 3 FEET EXPECTED IN NORTON
SOUND LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT. THE HIGHEST SEA
LEVEL RISES...A LITTLE OVER 3 FEET...WILL BE OVER EASTERN NORTON
SOUND MON AFTERNOON AND MON EVENING. SEAS COULD BE AS HIGH AS
8 FEET OFFSHORE OVER EASTERN NORTON SOUND...BUT LOWER NEAR SHORE.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KT TUE THROUGH TUE EVENING COULD
PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF ON THE ARCTIC COAST FROM BARROW WESTWARD.
SEAS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 6-8 FEET NOT TOO FAR OFFSHORE. MAXIMUM
SEA LEVEL ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 1.5 FEET AT ICY CAPE
AND ABOUT 1 FOOT AT BARROW.

&&


.HYDROLOGY...
SEE MAIN DISCUSSION FOR EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. NO SMALL
STREAM FLOOD ISSUES ARE EXPECTED IN THE ALASKA RANGE AT THIS TIME
DUE TO THE LOWERING FREEZING AND SNOW LEVELS. IN THE MIDDLE
TANANA VALLEY...FORECAST RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN THE UPPER
CHENA RIVER RISING TO ACTION STAGE BY EARLY WED MORNING.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
WIND ADVISORY...OVER SUMMITS IN AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

&&

$$

RF AUG 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 311114
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
314 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AS WELL AS MODEL
TO MODEL CONTINUITY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND MID TERM. DEEP
UPPER LEVEL LOW AROUND 510 DAM AT 500 HPA AND CURRENTLY LOCATED
300 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND AS IT DRIFTS
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALONG A
PASC TO PAUN LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND
WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR. THE SHORT WAVE BECOME HARD TO DEFINE AND LOCATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. AS THE SHORT WAVE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL INTERIOR.

FOCUS TURNS TO A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING FALL STORM THAT WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE BROOKS RANGE
AND STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
INTERIOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF BARROW WILL
COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OVER THE BERING STRAIT
MONDAY AND WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK EAST ALONG
THE BROOKS RANGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SURFACE 997 MB LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR KOTZEBUE SOUND MONDAY EVENING AND WILL
TRACK EAST TO BE NEAR PABT AS A 995 MB LOW TUESDAY MORNING AND
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST TO BE LOCATED NEAR PARC AS
A 994 MB LOW TUESDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE STORM TOTAL QPF FROM MONDAY MORNING TO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WELL IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH OVER A BROAD AREA OF
THE INTERIOR WITH 2 PLUS INCH BULLS EYES OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA
RANGE AS A FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. PLENTY OF
WIND WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL WITH 850 MB JET STREAK OF AROUND 55
KTS MOVES MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR OVER A PAEG TO PAFA TO PAMC LINE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO DEVELOP
OVER INTERIOR HIGHWAY SUMMITS AND PASSES THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
SNOW LEVELS RISE TO AROUND 4500 FEET IN THE ALASKA RANGE AND OVER
THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT FAIL TO RISE
MUCH OVER 3000 FT IN THE BROOKS RANGE...WILL NEED TO MONITOR
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE FOR SNOW HEADLINES ESPECIALLY
OVER ATIGUN PASS. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IN THE BROOKS
RANGE MONDAY AND IN THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE TUESDAY SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR WINTER CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL IN THE
WESTERN ALASKA RANGE FROM 4500 FT TO AROUND 2500 FT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE
PASS LEVEL. AGAIN THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY DETERIORATING WINTER
CONDITIONS MONDAY IN THE BROOKS RANGE AND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN
THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR WINTER HEADLINE
POTENTIAL IN THE BROOKS RANGE AND ALASKA RANGE AND FOR HYDRO
HEADLINES OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
ELEVATED SURF POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM POINT BARROW
WEST AS 25 KT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BUFFET THE COAST. CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR HIGH SURF POTENTIAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STORM TOTAL
QPF AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF AN 1 INCH OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
RISES ON ALREADY HIGH INTERIOR RIVER LEVELS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE STORM TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS OF 2 PLUS INCHES IN THE
WESTERN ALASKA RANGE. RUN OFF IN THESE AREAS WILL BE COMPLICATED
AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SOME OF THE PRECIP
AS SNOW.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.
&&

$$

CCC AUG 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 311114
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
314 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AS WELL AS MODEL
TO MODEL CONTINUITY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND MID TERM. DEEP
UPPER LEVEL LOW AROUND 510 DAM AT 500 HPA AND CURRENTLY LOCATED
300 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND AS IT DRIFTS
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALONG A
PASC TO PAUN LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND
WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR. THE SHORT WAVE BECOME HARD TO DEFINE AND LOCATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. AS THE SHORT WAVE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL INTERIOR.

FOCUS TURNS TO A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING FALL STORM THAT WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE BROOKS RANGE
AND STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
INTERIOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF BARROW WILL
COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OVER THE BERING STRAIT
MONDAY AND WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK EAST ALONG
THE BROOKS RANGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SURFACE 997 MB LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR KOTZEBUE SOUND MONDAY EVENING AND WILL
TRACK EAST TO BE NEAR PABT AS A 995 MB LOW TUESDAY MORNING AND
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST TO BE LOCATED NEAR PARC AS
A 994 MB LOW TUESDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE STORM TOTAL QPF FROM MONDAY MORNING TO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WELL IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH OVER A BROAD AREA OF
THE INTERIOR WITH 2 PLUS INCH BULLS EYES OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA
RANGE AS A FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. PLENTY OF
WIND WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL WITH 850 MB JET STREAK OF AROUND 55
KTS MOVES MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR OVER A PAEG TO PAFA TO PAMC LINE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO DEVELOP
OVER INTERIOR HIGHWAY SUMMITS AND PASSES THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
SNOW LEVELS RISE TO AROUND 4500 FEET IN THE ALASKA RANGE AND OVER
THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT FAIL TO RISE
MUCH OVER 3000 FT IN THE BROOKS RANGE...WILL NEED TO MONITOR
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE FOR SNOW HEADLINES ESPECIALLY
OVER ATIGUN PASS. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IN THE BROOKS
RANGE MONDAY AND IN THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE TUESDAY SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR WINTER CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL IN THE
WESTERN ALASKA RANGE FROM 4500 FT TO AROUND 2500 FT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE
PASS LEVEL. AGAIN THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY DETERIORATING WINTER
CONDITIONS MONDAY IN THE BROOKS RANGE AND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN
THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR WINTER HEADLINE
POTENTIAL IN THE BROOKS RANGE AND ALASKA RANGE AND FOR HYDRO
HEADLINES OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
ELEVATED SURF POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM POINT BARROW
WEST AS 25 KT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BUFFET THE COAST. CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR HIGH SURF POTENTIAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STORM TOTAL
QPF AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF AN 1 INCH OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
RISES ON ALREADY HIGH INTERIOR RIVER LEVELS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE STORM TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS OF 2 PLUS INCHES IN THE
WESTERN ALASKA RANGE. RUN OFF IN THESE AREAS WILL BE COMPLICATED
AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SOME OF THE PRECIP
AS SNOW.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.
&&

$$

CCC AUG 14





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