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000
FXAK69 PAFG 311053
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
253 AM AKDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z SYNOPTIC MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND VERIFIED WELL AGAINST
THE 06Z ANALYSIS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PERFORM REASONABLY AS
FAR AS FEATURE POSITION AND STRENGTH HOWEVER 06Z AND 09Z
TEMPERATURE VERIFICATION OVER THE INTERIOR CONTINUES TO PERFORM
POORLY. RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AS WELL SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL
FAMILIES REMAIN REASONABLE THROUGH FRIDAY....HOWEVER BY THE
WEEKEND SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD ERUPTS AND RELATIVE MEASURES OF
PREDICTABILITY PLUMMET LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE. RELIED HEAVILY AGAIN ON INHERITED FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF ECMWF AND NAM FOR PRECIPITATION FIELDS.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...A 514 DAM LOW OVER WESTERN KOTZEBUE SOUND
LIFTS NORTHWEST IN TO THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA WEDNESDAY. A 515
DAM LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST TO BE
LOCATED 200 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IN THE
CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
TO THE EAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY MORNING. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS RAPIDLY NORTH INTO THE EASTERN BERING
SEA AND WESTERN ALASKA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND WILL BE CENTERED
ALONG A ST LAWRENCE ISLAND TO COLD BAY AXIS FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIPS EAST TO BE LOCATED OVER A BARROW TO SITKA
AXIS BY FRIDAY MORNING.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1003 MB LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN KOTZEBUE
SOUND WILL PUSH NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN TO 1008 MB AS IT MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA. TRAILING FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS
RANGE EXTENDING SOUTH MERGES WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT THAT EXTENDS
SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. THIS AREA WILL BE
THE FOCAL POINT FOR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY NORTH OF THE SEWARD
PENINSULA AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA.
A WEAK FRONT MOVING NORTHWEST AROUND A WEAK LOW MOVING INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH AND EAST OF FAIRBANKS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES NORTH AND WEST OF
FAIRBANKS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

1037 MB HIGH PRESSURE APPROXIMATELY 400 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION
POINT COMBINED WITH COMPLEX SET OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS OVER THE
INTERIOR CREATING STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH SLOPE COAST.
ONGOING BLIZZARD WARNING OVER EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST ALLOWED
TO CONTINUE AS WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY LATE MORNING.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA COAST AND
NORTHERN COAST FOR BLOWING SNOW ALLOWED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH WINDS AGAIN EXPECTED TO PICK UP BY LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ202-AKZ203.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230.
&&

$$

CCC MAR 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 311053
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
253 AM AKDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z SYNOPTIC MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND VERIFIED WELL AGAINST
THE 06Z ANALYSIS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PERFORM REASONABLY AS
FAR AS FEATURE POSITION AND STRENGTH HOWEVER 06Z AND 09Z
TEMPERATURE VERIFICATION OVER THE INTERIOR CONTINUES TO PERFORM
POORLY. RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AS WELL SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL
FAMILIES REMAIN REASONABLE THROUGH FRIDAY....HOWEVER BY THE
WEEKEND SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD ERUPTS AND RELATIVE MEASURES OF
PREDICTABILITY PLUMMET LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE. RELIED HEAVILY AGAIN ON INHERITED FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF ECMWF AND NAM FOR PRECIPITATION FIELDS.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...A 514 DAM LOW OVER WESTERN KOTZEBUE SOUND
LIFTS NORTHWEST IN TO THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA WEDNESDAY. A 515
DAM LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST TO BE
LOCATED 200 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IN THE
CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
TO THE EAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY MORNING. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS RAPIDLY NORTH INTO THE EASTERN BERING
SEA AND WESTERN ALASKA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND WILL BE CENTERED
ALONG A ST LAWRENCE ISLAND TO COLD BAY AXIS FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIPS EAST TO BE LOCATED OVER A BARROW TO SITKA
AXIS BY FRIDAY MORNING.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1003 MB LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN KOTZEBUE
SOUND WILL PUSH NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN TO 1008 MB AS IT MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA. TRAILING FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS
RANGE EXTENDING SOUTH MERGES WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT THAT EXTENDS
SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. THIS AREA WILL BE
THE FOCAL POINT FOR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY NORTH OF THE SEWARD
PENINSULA AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA.
A WEAK FRONT MOVING NORTHWEST AROUND A WEAK LOW MOVING INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH AND EAST OF FAIRBANKS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES NORTH AND WEST OF
FAIRBANKS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

1037 MB HIGH PRESSURE APPROXIMATELY 400 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION
POINT COMBINED WITH COMPLEX SET OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS OVER THE
INTERIOR CREATING STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH SLOPE COAST.
ONGOING BLIZZARD WARNING OVER EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST ALLOWED
TO CONTINUE AS WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY LATE MORNING.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA COAST AND
NORTHERN COAST FOR BLOWING SNOW ALLOWED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH WINDS AGAIN EXPECTED TO PICK UP BY LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ202-AKZ203.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230.
&&

$$

CCC MAR 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 302226
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
226 PM AKDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...5150 METER LOW JUST NORTHWEST OF KOTZEBUE WILL DRIFT
NORTHWEST TO WRANGELL ISLAND 1 AM WED. UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTH
OVER THE CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL APPROACH THE ARCTIC COAST WED AM AND
THEN A WEAK LOW AT THE END OF THE TROUGH 200 MILES NORTH OF
PRUDHOE BAY WHICH WILL THEN DRIFT NORTH. VORTICITY CENTER MOVING
NORTH TO NUNIVAK ISLAND 10 PM MON MOVING NORTH TO THE BERING
STRAIT 4 AM WED. WEAK RIDGING OVER EASTERN INTERIOR PERSISTING
THROUGH THU THOUGH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE
AREA THU. A LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL TRACK EAST TO THE
GULF OF ALASKA WED THROUGH THU AND CREATE A BROAD TROUGH OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA WHICH WILL CAUSE SLOW MID LEVEL COOLING
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA TUE THROUGH THU.

SURFACE...1035 MB HIGH 500 MILES NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY BUILDING TO
1046 MB AND DRIFTING TO 80N LAT 180W LON THROUGH 10 AM THU. 1002
MB LOW NEAR KIVALINA DRIFTING NORTHWEST AND WEAKENING 101014 MB
WED AM NEAR WRANGELL ISLAND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA DISSIPATING WITH A LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MOVING TO
THE GULF OF ALASKA WED EVENING AT 1000 MB.

MODELS...AGREE OK THROUGH THU ON THE MAIN FEATURES MENTIONED
ABOVE. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE GFS/CANADIAN ARE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN THE ECMWF...THE LATTER WHICH IS DEVELOPING A STRONG
LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA ON FRI...QUITE A
DEPARTURE FROM THE USUAL PATTERN DURING THIS SEASON. HAVE AGREED
WITH WPC TO AVOID THIS ECMWF SOLUTION.

NORTH SLOPE...WINDS INCREASING SOME OVERNIGHT AND APPEARS THEY
WILL NOT DIMINISH MUCH UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AT THE EARLIEST...LIKE
WHEN THE TROUGH ALOFT NEARING THE ARCTIC OCEAN STALLS THEN
WEAKENS INTO A SMALL LOW. UPGRADED EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST TO
BLIZZARD AND EXTENDED CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA COAST ADVISORY THROUGH
TUE...AND ADDED THE NORTHERN ARCTIC COAST.

WESTERN ALASKA...SOME LIGHT SNOW INNER COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT INTO
TUE EVENING AS UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND WEAK
VORTICITY CENTER MOVES NORTH OVER OUTER NORTON SOUND. ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS. THEREAFTER EXPECT SOME SPOTTY SNOW
SHOWERS LINGERING OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...TEMPERATURES COOLING A BIT THROUGH
THU. PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF FAIRBANKS
THROUGH THURSDAY THOUGH OTHERWISE DRY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ202-AKZ203.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225.
&&

$$

JL MAR 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 302226
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
226 PM AKDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...5150 METER LOW JUST NORTHWEST OF KOTZEBUE WILL DRIFT
NORTHWEST TO WRANGELL ISLAND 1 AM WED. UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTH
OVER THE CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL APPROACH THE ARCTIC COAST WED AM AND
THEN A WEAK LOW AT THE END OF THE TROUGH 200 MILES NORTH OF
PRUDHOE BAY WHICH WILL THEN DRIFT NORTH. VORTICITY CENTER MOVING
NORTH TO NUNIVAK ISLAND 10 PM MON MOVING NORTH TO THE BERING
STRAIT 4 AM WED. WEAK RIDGING OVER EASTERN INTERIOR PERSISTING
THROUGH THU THOUGH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE
AREA THU. A LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL TRACK EAST TO THE
GULF OF ALASKA WED THROUGH THU AND CREATE A BROAD TROUGH OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA WHICH WILL CAUSE SLOW MID LEVEL COOLING
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA TUE THROUGH THU.

SURFACE...1035 MB HIGH 500 MILES NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY BUILDING TO
1046 MB AND DRIFTING TO 80N LAT 180W LON THROUGH 10 AM THU. 1002
MB LOW NEAR KIVALINA DRIFTING NORTHWEST AND WEAKENING 101014 MB
WED AM NEAR WRANGELL ISLAND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA DISSIPATING WITH A LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MOVING TO
THE GULF OF ALASKA WED EVENING AT 1000 MB.

MODELS...AGREE OK THROUGH THU ON THE MAIN FEATURES MENTIONED
ABOVE. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE GFS/CANADIAN ARE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN THE ECMWF...THE LATTER WHICH IS DEVELOPING A STRONG
LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA ON FRI...QUITE A
DEPARTURE FROM THE USUAL PATTERN DURING THIS SEASON. HAVE AGREED
WITH WPC TO AVOID THIS ECMWF SOLUTION.

NORTH SLOPE...WINDS INCREASING SOME OVERNIGHT AND APPEARS THEY
WILL NOT DIMINISH MUCH UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AT THE EARLIEST...LIKE
WHEN THE TROUGH ALOFT NEARING THE ARCTIC OCEAN STALLS THEN
WEAKENS INTO A SMALL LOW. UPGRADED EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST TO
BLIZZARD AND EXTENDED CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA COAST ADVISORY THROUGH
TUE...AND ADDED THE NORTHERN ARCTIC COAST.

WESTERN ALASKA...SOME LIGHT SNOW INNER COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT INTO
TUE EVENING AS UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND WEAK
VORTICITY CENTER MOVES NORTH OVER OUTER NORTON SOUND. ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS. THEREAFTER EXPECT SOME SPOTTY SNOW
SHOWERS LINGERING OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...TEMPERATURES COOLING A BIT THROUGH
THU. PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF FAIRBANKS
THROUGH THURSDAY THOUGH OTHERWISE DRY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ202-AKZ203.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225.
&&

$$

JL MAR 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 301148
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
348 AM AKDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND VERIFIED WELL
AGAINST THE 06Z ANALYSIS WITH FEATURE STRENGTH AND POSITION.
TEMPERATURES VERIFIED MUCH BETTER WITH TODAYS MODEL RUNS THAN HAS
BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SHORT RANGE AND MID
RANGE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY REMAINS GOOD AND SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL
FAMILIES REMAINS REASONABLE HOWEVER MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
CONSIDERABLY BY LATE WEEK WITH EXPECTED PATTERN SHIFT. RELIED
HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH A BLEND
OF 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...A 515 DAM LOW OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND CONTINUES TO
DRIFT TO THE WEST AND WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI
SEA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH TUESDAY MORNING. A
518 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA SLIDES TO THE EAST
TODAY AS A 514 DAM LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MOVES RAPIDLY
EAST TO BE LOCATED OVER COLD BAY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVES
TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AND ANCHORS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA
NUDGES EAST WEDNESDAY AN THURSDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS PATTERN
SHIFTS.

ON THE SURFACE...A COMPLEX LOW CENTER JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND WEAKEN AS A WEAK
FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY. WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CONTINUE TO CREATE DRY AND WARM CHINOOK CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE
PASSES REMAIN GUSTY BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES
NORTH INTO THE INTERIOR.

A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 75N AND 150W WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO
THE SOUTH AND INCREASE THE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HOISTED FOR ZONES 203 AND
204 FOR BLOWING SNOW AS WINDS GUST IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR WINTER HEADLINES IN ZONES
202 AND 201 TONIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE IN THESE AREAS. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR LOCAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
NORTH SLOPE THIS EVENING.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR
CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH BETTLES SETTING A HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 40S THROUGH MID WEEK AND THEN COOL
BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SNOWPACK OVER
THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR CONTINUES TO MELT SLOWLY ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH FACING SLOPES. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES
AT THIS TIME WITH SLOW MELTING RATES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

$$

CCC MAR 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 301148
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
348 AM AKDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND VERIFIED WELL
AGAINST THE 06Z ANALYSIS WITH FEATURE STRENGTH AND POSITION.
TEMPERATURES VERIFIED MUCH BETTER WITH TODAYS MODEL RUNS THAN HAS
BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SHORT RANGE AND MID
RANGE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY REMAINS GOOD AND SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL
FAMILIES REMAINS REASONABLE HOWEVER MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
CONSIDERABLY BY LATE WEEK WITH EXPECTED PATTERN SHIFT. RELIED
HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH A BLEND
OF 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...A 515 DAM LOW OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND CONTINUES TO
DRIFT TO THE WEST AND WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI
SEA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH TUESDAY MORNING. A
518 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA SLIDES TO THE EAST
TODAY AS A 514 DAM LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MOVES RAPIDLY
EAST TO BE LOCATED OVER COLD BAY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVES
TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AND ANCHORS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA
NUDGES EAST WEDNESDAY AN THURSDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS PATTERN
SHIFTS.

ON THE SURFACE...A COMPLEX LOW CENTER JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND WEAKEN AS A WEAK
FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY. WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CONTINUE TO CREATE DRY AND WARM CHINOOK CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE
PASSES REMAIN GUSTY BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES
NORTH INTO THE INTERIOR.

A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 75N AND 150W WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO
THE SOUTH AND INCREASE THE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HOISTED FOR ZONES 203 AND
204 FOR BLOWING SNOW AS WINDS GUST IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR WINTER HEADLINES IN ZONES
202 AND 201 TONIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE IN THESE AREAS. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR LOCAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
NORTH SLOPE THIS EVENING.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR
CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH BETTLES SETTING A HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 40S THROUGH MID WEEK AND THEN COOL
BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SNOWPACK OVER
THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR CONTINUES TO MELT SLOWLY ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH FACING SLOPES. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES
AT THIS TIME WITH SLOW MELTING RATES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

$$

CCC MAR 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 301148
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
348 AM AKDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND VERIFIED WELL
AGAINST THE 06Z ANALYSIS WITH FEATURE STRENGTH AND POSITION.
TEMPERATURES VERIFIED MUCH BETTER WITH TODAYS MODEL RUNS THAN HAS
BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SHORT RANGE AND MID
RANGE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY REMAINS GOOD AND SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL
FAMILIES REMAINS REASONABLE HOWEVER MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
CONSIDERABLY BY LATE WEEK WITH EXPECTED PATTERN SHIFT. RELIED
HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH A BLEND
OF 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...A 515 DAM LOW OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND CONTINUES TO
DRIFT TO THE WEST AND WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI
SEA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH TUESDAY MORNING. A
518 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA SLIDES TO THE EAST
TODAY AS A 514 DAM LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MOVES RAPIDLY
EAST TO BE LOCATED OVER COLD BAY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVES
TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AND ANCHORS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA
NUDGES EAST WEDNESDAY AN THURSDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS PATTERN
SHIFTS.

ON THE SURFACE...A COMPLEX LOW CENTER JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND WEAKEN AS A WEAK
FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY. WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CONTINUE TO CREATE DRY AND WARM CHINOOK CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE
PASSES REMAIN GUSTY BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES
NORTH INTO THE INTERIOR.

A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 75N AND 150W WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO
THE SOUTH AND INCREASE THE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HOISTED FOR ZONES 203 AND
204 FOR BLOWING SNOW AS WINDS GUST IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR WINTER HEADLINES IN ZONES
202 AND 201 TONIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE IN THESE AREAS. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR LOCAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
NORTH SLOPE THIS EVENING.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR
CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH BETTLES SETTING A HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 40S THROUGH MID WEEK AND THEN COOL
BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SNOWPACK OVER
THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR CONTINUES TO MELT SLOWLY ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH FACING SLOPES. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES
AT THIS TIME WITH SLOW MELTING RATES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

$$

CCC MAR 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 301148
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
348 AM AKDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND VERIFIED WELL
AGAINST THE 06Z ANALYSIS WITH FEATURE STRENGTH AND POSITION.
TEMPERATURES VERIFIED MUCH BETTER WITH TODAYS MODEL RUNS THAN HAS
BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SHORT RANGE AND MID
RANGE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY REMAINS GOOD AND SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL
FAMILIES REMAINS REASONABLE HOWEVER MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
CONSIDERABLY BY LATE WEEK WITH EXPECTED PATTERN SHIFT. RELIED
HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH A BLEND
OF 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...A 515 DAM LOW OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND CONTINUES TO
DRIFT TO THE WEST AND WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI
SEA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH TUESDAY MORNING. A
518 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA SLIDES TO THE EAST
TODAY AS A 514 DAM LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MOVES RAPIDLY
EAST TO BE LOCATED OVER COLD BAY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVES
TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AND ANCHORS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA
NUDGES EAST WEDNESDAY AN THURSDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS PATTERN
SHIFTS.

ON THE SURFACE...A COMPLEX LOW CENTER JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND WEAKEN AS A WEAK
FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY. WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CONTINUE TO CREATE DRY AND WARM CHINOOK CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE
PASSES REMAIN GUSTY BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES
NORTH INTO THE INTERIOR.

A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 75N AND 150W WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO
THE SOUTH AND INCREASE THE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HOISTED FOR ZONES 203 AND
204 FOR BLOWING SNOW AS WINDS GUST IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR WINTER HEADLINES IN ZONES
202 AND 201 TONIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE IN THESE AREAS. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR LOCAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
NORTH SLOPE THIS EVENING.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR
CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH BETTLES SETTING A HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 40S THROUGH MID WEEK AND THEN COOL
BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SNOWPACK OVER
THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR CONTINUES TO MELT SLOWLY ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH FACING SLOPES. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES
AT THIS TIME WITH SLOW MELTING RATES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

$$

CCC MAR 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 292138
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
138 PM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...


ALOFT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL 514 DAM LOW
OVER KOTZEBUE FORECASTED TO SLIDE WEST AND BE OVER CHUKCHI SEA
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
ON TUESDAY THEN PUSHED NORTH AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER WEST COAST.
WEAK RIDGING WILL LINGER OVER THE INTERIOR WITH A FEW RIPPLES OF
ENERGY MOVING FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
NOT MUCH PRECIP EXPECTED FROM THESE WEAK SHORTWAVES FOR THE
INTERIOR ONLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
BY MID WEEK RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAT WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE
INTERIOR WITH A COOLING TREND EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE...A STRONG 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE HIGH
ARCTIC WILL PUSH SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN REMAIN POSITIONED
400 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WITH A WEAK TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN ARCTIC PLAIN. A 987 MB LOW JUST EAST
OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN TO 1000 MB OVER THE
YUKON DELTA ON MONDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE BROOKS RANGE WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE AND STRONG EASTERLY WINDS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ON MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE. VISIBILITIES WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE GROUND BLIZZARD CONIDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 202-204.

INTERIOR... SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN A SLIGHT
COOLING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS BY TUESDAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THE SNOW PACK OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR CONTINUES TO WITHER
AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SLOW MELTING AND RUNOFF ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERLY EXPOSURES DURING THE DAY. CHINOOK WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE
ALASKA RANGE BUT REMAINING UNDER ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH TUESDAY.



&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

JK MAR 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 292138
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
138 PM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...


ALOFT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL 514 DAM LOW
OVER KOTZEBUE FORECASTED TO SLIDE WEST AND BE OVER CHUKCHI SEA
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
ON TUESDAY THEN PUSHED NORTH AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER WEST COAST.
WEAK RIDGING WILL LINGER OVER THE INTERIOR WITH A FEW RIPPLES OF
ENERGY MOVING FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
NOT MUCH PRECIP EXPECTED FROM THESE WEAK SHORTWAVES FOR THE
INTERIOR ONLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
BY MID WEEK RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAT WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE
INTERIOR WITH A COOLING TREND EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE...A STRONG 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE HIGH
ARCTIC WILL PUSH SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN REMAIN POSITIONED
400 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WITH A WEAK TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN ARCTIC PLAIN. A 987 MB LOW JUST EAST
OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN TO 1000 MB OVER THE
YUKON DELTA ON MONDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE BROOKS RANGE WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE AND STRONG EASTERLY WINDS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ON MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE. VISIBILITIES WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE GROUND BLIZZARD CONIDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 202-204.

INTERIOR... SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN A SLIGHT
COOLING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS BY TUESDAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THE SNOW PACK OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR CONTINUES TO WITHER
AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SLOW MELTING AND RUNOFF ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERLY EXPOSURES DURING THE DAY. CHINOOK WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE
ALASKA RANGE BUT REMAINING UNDER ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH TUESDAY.



&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

JK MAR 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 290912
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
112 AM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND VERIFIED WELL
AGAINST THE 06Z ANALYSIS AS FAR AS FEATURE STRENGTH AND POSITION
HOWEVER TEMPERATURE VERIFICATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR
CONTINUES TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS WITH GUIDANCE VERIFYING IN
EXCESS OF 10 DEGREES TOO COLD COMPARED TO 6Z AND 9Z OBSERVATIONS.
WILL LEAN HEAVILY AGAIN ON INHERITED FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES AND
A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF WITH INHERITED FORECASTS FOR
FEATURE POSITION AND STRENGTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT MINIMAL
SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL FAMILIES AND FROM RUN TO RUN IN THE SHORT
TERM HOWEVER IN THE MID TERM AND LONG TERM THERE IS INCREASED
SPREAD AS PATTERN SHIFT MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO CAUSE
PROBLEMS AND LIMITS PREDICTABILITY IN THE LONG RANGE.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA AND EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE YUKON AND NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES WILL HOLD ON THROUGH MID WEEK BUT WILL BE NUDGED
FURTHER EAST AS THE LONG WAVE DIGS SOUTH AND EAST OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA AND A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BERING SEA MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING A COOL AND DRY PATTERN FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG A BARROW TO KOTZEBUE LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW AND DRIFT TO THE SOUTH TO BE
CENTERED NEAR KOTZEBUE SUNDAY EVENING AND WILL THEN DRIFT WEST TO
BE CENTERED 100 NM NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT MONDAY EVENING. THIS
WAVE WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE CENTRAL BROOKS
RANGE AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWEST INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST. A FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ARRIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR THIS
EVENING HOWEVER DOWN SLOPE CHINOOK FLOW WILL LIMIT PRECIP WITH THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR THIS
EVENING. WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES WILL INCREASE TODAY
WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN SNOWPACK SPARSE CHINOOK
ZONES ALONG THE NORTH FACES OF THE ALASKA RANGE...THESE ARE THE SAME
AREAS THAT CHINOOK WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
FUELS ARE NOT YET A CONCERN IN THESE AREAS.

THE NEAR RECORD WARMTH OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL GRADUALLY
COOL INTO NEXT WEEK BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S INTO MID WEEK. THE SNOW PACK OVER
THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO RIPEN AND EXPERIENCE SLOW
DAYTIME MELTING ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHERLY EXPOSURES. SNOWPACK MELT
REMAINS SLOW WITH NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

$$

CCC MAR 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 290912
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
112 AM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND VERIFIED WELL
AGAINST THE 06Z ANALYSIS AS FAR AS FEATURE STRENGTH AND POSITION
HOWEVER TEMPERATURE VERIFICATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR
CONTINUES TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS WITH GUIDANCE VERIFYING IN
EXCESS OF 10 DEGREES TOO COLD COMPARED TO 6Z AND 9Z OBSERVATIONS.
WILL LEAN HEAVILY AGAIN ON INHERITED FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES AND
A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF WITH INHERITED FORECASTS FOR
FEATURE POSITION AND STRENGTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT MINIMAL
SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL FAMILIES AND FROM RUN TO RUN IN THE SHORT
TERM HOWEVER IN THE MID TERM AND LONG TERM THERE IS INCREASED
SPREAD AS PATTERN SHIFT MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO CAUSE
PROBLEMS AND LIMITS PREDICTABILITY IN THE LONG RANGE.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA AND EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE YUKON AND NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES WILL HOLD ON THROUGH MID WEEK BUT WILL BE NUDGED
FURTHER EAST AS THE LONG WAVE DIGS SOUTH AND EAST OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA AND A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BERING SEA MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING A COOL AND DRY PATTERN FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG A BARROW TO KOTZEBUE LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW AND DRIFT TO THE SOUTH TO BE
CENTERED NEAR KOTZEBUE SUNDAY EVENING AND WILL THEN DRIFT WEST TO
BE CENTERED 100 NM NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT MONDAY EVENING. THIS
WAVE WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE CENTRAL BROOKS
RANGE AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWEST INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST. A FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ARRIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR THIS
EVENING HOWEVER DOWN SLOPE CHINOOK FLOW WILL LIMIT PRECIP WITH THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR THIS
EVENING. WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES WILL INCREASE TODAY
WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN SNOWPACK SPARSE CHINOOK
ZONES ALONG THE NORTH FACES OF THE ALASKA RANGE...THESE ARE THE SAME
AREAS THAT CHINOOK WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
FUELS ARE NOT YET A CONCERN IN THESE AREAS.

THE NEAR RECORD WARMTH OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL GRADUALLY
COOL INTO NEXT WEEK BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S INTO MID WEEK. THE SNOW PACK OVER
THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO RIPEN AND EXPERIENCE SLOW
DAYTIME MELTING ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHERLY EXPOSURES. SNOWPACK MELT
REMAINS SLOW WITH NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

$$

CCC MAR 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 282217
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
217 PM AKDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...


ALOFT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL 514 DAM LOW
NEAR BARROW FORECASTED TO SLIDE SOUTHWEST AND BE OVER SEWARD PENN
BY 10 AM MONDAY MORNING. LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WEST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A 510 DAM LOW AROUND 300 NM SOUTH OF
KODIAK WILL ANCHOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SLOWLY ROTATE
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
WILL BE LOCATED NEAR KODIAK ISLAND BY SUNDAY. WEAK RIDGING WILL
LINGER OVER THE INTERIOR WITH A FEW RIPPLES OF ENERGY MOVING FROM
THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. NOT MUCH PRECIP EXPECTED FROM
THESE WEAK SHORTWAVES FOR THE INTERIOR ONLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN ARCTIC PLAIN.
976 MB LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE
INLAND AND WEAKEN ON SUNDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE BROOKS RANGE WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.

INTERIOR... SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
50 THIS AFTERNOON AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH SLIGHT COOLING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS BY TUESDAY. THE
SNOW PACK OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR CONTINUES TO WITHER AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SLOW MELTING AND RUNOFF ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERLY
EXPOSURES DURING THE DAY. CHINOOK WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE ALASKA
RANGE BUT REMAINING UNDER ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

MAR 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 282217
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
217 PM AKDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...


ALOFT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL 514 DAM LOW
NEAR BARROW FORECASTED TO SLIDE SOUTHWEST AND BE OVER SEWARD PENN
BY 10 AM MONDAY MORNING. LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WEST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A 510 DAM LOW AROUND 300 NM SOUTH OF
KODIAK WILL ANCHOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SLOWLY ROTATE
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
WILL BE LOCATED NEAR KODIAK ISLAND BY SUNDAY. WEAK RIDGING WILL
LINGER OVER THE INTERIOR WITH A FEW RIPPLES OF ENERGY MOVING FROM
THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. NOT MUCH PRECIP EXPECTED FROM
THESE WEAK SHORTWAVES FOR THE INTERIOR ONLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN ARCTIC PLAIN.
976 MB LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE
INLAND AND WEAKEN ON SUNDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE BROOKS RANGE WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.

INTERIOR... SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
50 THIS AFTERNOON AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH SLIGHT COOLING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS BY TUESDAY. THE
SNOW PACK OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR CONTINUES TO WITHER AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SLOW MELTING AND RUNOFF ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERLY
EXPOSURES DURING THE DAY. CHINOOK WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE ALASKA
RANGE BUT REMAINING UNDER ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

MAR 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 282217
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
217 PM AKDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...


ALOFT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL 514 DAM LOW
NEAR BARROW FORECASTED TO SLIDE SOUTHWEST AND BE OVER SEWARD PENN
BY 10 AM MONDAY MORNING. LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WEST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A 510 DAM LOW AROUND 300 NM SOUTH OF
KODIAK WILL ANCHOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SLOWLY ROTATE
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
WILL BE LOCATED NEAR KODIAK ISLAND BY SUNDAY. WEAK RIDGING WILL
LINGER OVER THE INTERIOR WITH A FEW RIPPLES OF ENERGY MOVING FROM
THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. NOT MUCH PRECIP EXPECTED FROM
THESE WEAK SHORTWAVES FOR THE INTERIOR ONLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN ARCTIC PLAIN.
976 MB LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE
INLAND AND WEAKEN ON SUNDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE BROOKS RANGE WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.

INTERIOR... SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
50 THIS AFTERNOON AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH SLIGHT COOLING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS BY TUESDAY. THE
SNOW PACK OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR CONTINUES TO WITHER AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SLOW MELTING AND RUNOFF ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERLY
EXPOSURES DURING THE DAY. CHINOOK WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE ALASKA
RANGE BUT REMAINING UNDER ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

MAR 15





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