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000
FXAK69 PAFG 171022
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
222 AM AKDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...BROAD LOW DOMINATES EASTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN
ALASKA. THERE WILL BE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND MOVES
EAST. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA...A BROAD TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ALASKA...AND A RIDGE
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. BY TUESDAY...MODELS AGREE WITH RATHER
STRONG TROUGH AXIS FROM THE ARCTIC SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
TO SOUTH OF BRISTOL BAY.

SURFACE...986MB LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE EAST TO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. A 996MB LOW OVER MACKENZIE BAY WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND RUSSIA
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...LOW PRESSURE OVER MACKENZIE BAY WILL CAUSE WEST
WINDS FOR THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA WILL PRODUCE AN EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE NORTH SLOPE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST
OFF THE COAST WILL FOCUS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE RAIN/SNOW OVER
THE AREA TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW WEST TO EAST SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. IN THE SHORT TERM...FOG WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

WEST COAST...MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT DUE TO WINDS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY OF GREATER CONCERN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
BERING SEA TO RUSSIA AND LOW OVER INTERIOR. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST COAST WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SHOWER COVERAGE
DIMINISHING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH TO THE WEST
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE
ARCTIC SOUTH OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA TO NUNIVAK ISLAND MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

INTERIOR...UPPER LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL PRODUCE SOUTH WINDS
OVER ALASKA RANGE TODAY AND DIMINISHING TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 40
MPH THROUGH PASSES. THE INTERIOR WILL BE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO THE INTERIOR DURING THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL CAUSE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGH...ALONG
WITH MOISTURE FROM THE GULF...WILL LIKELY CAUSE RAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE EASTERN INTERIOR DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

DA SEP 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 171022
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
222 AM AKDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...BROAD LOW DOMINATES EASTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN
ALASKA. THERE WILL BE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND MOVES
EAST. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA...A BROAD TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ALASKA...AND A RIDGE
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. BY TUESDAY...MODELS AGREE WITH RATHER
STRONG TROUGH AXIS FROM THE ARCTIC SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
TO SOUTH OF BRISTOL BAY.

SURFACE...986MB LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE EAST TO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. A 996MB LOW OVER MACKENZIE BAY WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND RUSSIA
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...LOW PRESSURE OVER MACKENZIE BAY WILL CAUSE WEST
WINDS FOR THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA WILL PRODUCE AN EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE NORTH SLOPE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST
OFF THE COAST WILL FOCUS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE RAIN/SNOW OVER
THE AREA TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW WEST TO EAST SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. IN THE SHORT TERM...FOG WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

WEST COAST...MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT DUE TO WINDS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY OF GREATER CONCERN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
BERING SEA TO RUSSIA AND LOW OVER INTERIOR. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST COAST WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SHOWER COVERAGE
DIMINISHING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH TO THE WEST
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE
ARCTIC SOUTH OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA TO NUNIVAK ISLAND MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

INTERIOR...UPPER LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL PRODUCE SOUTH WINDS
OVER ALASKA RANGE TODAY AND DIMINISHING TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 40
MPH THROUGH PASSES. THE INTERIOR WILL BE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO THE INTERIOR DURING THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL CAUSE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGH...ALONG
WITH MOISTURE FROM THE GULF...WILL LIKELY CAUSE RAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE EASTERN INTERIOR DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

DA SEP 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 161948
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1148 AM AKDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND TOWARDS NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE 16/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION TIMING AND
COVERAGE. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES WITH PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC
FEATURES IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE...HOWEVER THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND
GULF OF ALASKA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA AND BERING STRAIT
AFTER FRIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND ITS SURFACE
REFLECTION ARE FORECAST TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL
LOW/SURFACE LOW WILL RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST AND
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME A BROAD OPEN TROUGH AS IT
REMAINS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS GENERAL
SETUP TRANSLATES TO ISOLATED AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF
THE WEST COAST...NORTHERN INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE.

NEARLY 200 LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE OBSERVED YESTERDAY FROM KOTZEBUE
TO EAGLE ON MONDAY. LIFTED INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE AND WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE
INTERIOR THIS EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. SO
WILL ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR FROM
KALTAG TO EAGLE THIS EVENING.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY...KEEPING IT DRY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY. GAP WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS NOTED ABOVE...A GRADUAL COOL DOWN TOWARDS NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER LOW/SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST...NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA...BERING
STRAIT AND INTO THE BERING SEA. THIS WILL OPEN THE GATES TO MUCH
COLDER H850 TEMPERATURES BEING ADVECTED SOUTH OVER THE WEST COAST
AND WESTERN INTERIOR. EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MID AND LONG RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION...THERE WILL BE A SHIFT FROM BEING
WARMER THAN NORMAL TO NORMAL...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE INTERIOR...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND TO BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NORTH WINDS STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD BRING SOME
MODERATE SURF TO THE NORTH SHORE OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND
BERING STRAIT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GAP WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH IN THE ALASKA RANGE
PASSES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME
CONCERNS FOR ZONES 223 AND 226...WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
APPROACH 30 PERCENT WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL
NOT BE MET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

LTH SEP 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 161948
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1148 AM AKDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND TOWARDS NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE 16/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION TIMING AND
COVERAGE. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES WITH PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC
FEATURES IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE...HOWEVER THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND
GULF OF ALASKA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA AND BERING STRAIT
AFTER FRIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND ITS SURFACE
REFLECTION ARE FORECAST TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL
LOW/SURFACE LOW WILL RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST AND
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME A BROAD OPEN TROUGH AS IT
REMAINS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS GENERAL
SETUP TRANSLATES TO ISOLATED AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF
THE WEST COAST...NORTHERN INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE.

NEARLY 200 LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE OBSERVED YESTERDAY FROM KOTZEBUE
TO EAGLE ON MONDAY. LIFTED INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE AND WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE
INTERIOR THIS EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. SO
WILL ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR FROM
KALTAG TO EAGLE THIS EVENING.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY...KEEPING IT DRY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY. GAP WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS NOTED ABOVE...A GRADUAL COOL DOWN TOWARDS NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER LOW/SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST...NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA...BERING
STRAIT AND INTO THE BERING SEA. THIS WILL OPEN THE GATES TO MUCH
COLDER H850 TEMPERATURES BEING ADVECTED SOUTH OVER THE WEST COAST
AND WESTERN INTERIOR. EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MID AND LONG RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION...THERE WILL BE A SHIFT FROM BEING
WARMER THAN NORMAL TO NORMAL...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE INTERIOR...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND TO BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NORTH WINDS STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD BRING SOME
MODERATE SURF TO THE NORTH SHORE OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND
BERING STRAIT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GAP WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH IN THE ALASKA RANGE
PASSES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME
CONCERNS FOR ZONES 223 AND 226...WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
APPROACH 30 PERCENT WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL
NOT BE MET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

LTH SEP 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 161342
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
542 AM AKDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

ALOFT, BROAD LOW DOMINATES EASTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALASKA.
AT LOWER LEVELS OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR ALASKA TO
YUKON TERRITORY OF CANADA. THIS TRANSLATES INTO ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS...EXCEPT GREATER CHANCES ALONG OCCLUDED FRONT WITH A
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE BROAD LOW ALOFT WILL CHANGE TO A
CENTRALLY LOCATED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM CANADA WEST INTO THE INTERIOR
AND ALSO FROM THE CENTRAL BERING SEA NORTH OVER RUSSIA TO THE
SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA. SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC. THIS WILL MEAN DRY WEATHER FOR THE
INTERIOR AND INCREASING NORTH WINDS FOR THE SOUTH CHUKCHI SEA
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT TO SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND. ALSO...ALASKA
RANGE WINDS THROUGH PASSES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW RH`S AND WINDS THROUGH PASSES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE OF CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER
FORECASTING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST
MARINE AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO LET UP
SATURDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN. IN THE SHORTER TERM...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM CAPE HALKETT TO DEMARCATION POINT WILL
END BY THIS EVENING.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LOW OVER HIGH ARCTIC WITH TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE SOUTH SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
TO BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES...WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NORTH SLOPE...BROOKS RANGE...WEST COAST...AND WESTERN INTERIOR.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

$$

DA SEP 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 161342
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
542 AM AKDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

ALOFT, BROAD LOW DOMINATES EASTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALASKA.
AT LOWER LEVELS OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR ALASKA TO
YUKON TERRITORY OF CANADA. THIS TRANSLATES INTO ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS...EXCEPT GREATER CHANCES ALONG OCCLUDED FRONT WITH A
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE BROAD LOW ALOFT WILL CHANGE TO A
CENTRALLY LOCATED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM CANADA WEST INTO THE INTERIOR
AND ALSO FROM THE CENTRAL BERING SEA NORTH OVER RUSSIA TO THE
SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA. SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC. THIS WILL MEAN DRY WEATHER FOR THE
INTERIOR AND INCREASING NORTH WINDS FOR THE SOUTH CHUKCHI SEA
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT TO SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND. ALSO...ALASKA
RANGE WINDS THROUGH PASSES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW RH`S AND WINDS THROUGH PASSES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE OF CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER
FORECASTING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST
MARINE AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO LET UP
SATURDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN. IN THE SHORTER TERM...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM CAPE HALKETT TO DEMARCATION POINT WILL
END BY THIS EVENING.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LOW OVER HIGH ARCTIC WITH TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE SOUTH SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
TO BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES...WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NORTH SLOPE...BROOKS RANGE...WEST COAST...AND WESTERN INTERIOR.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

$$

DA SEP 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 152343 AAA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
343 PM AKDT MON SEP 15 2014

...UPDATED TO INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...

THE 15/12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE ARE ONLY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO IN
AGREEMENT ON THE COOLING TREND THIS WEEK WITH A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.

A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER THE BERING SEA FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THIS UPPER LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MAKE FORWARD PROGRESS
EAST MID WEEK AND RESULT IN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SETUP
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE NORTHERN PACIFIC BY THE WEEKEND. ITS
SURFACE REFLECTION...A BROAD 997 MB LOW OVER THE YUKON DELTA WILL
CONTINUE TO FILL AND WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NORTH TONIGHT. AS IT
DRIFTS NORTH IT WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A SECOND LOW AS IT MOVES
EAST ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
RESULTANT LOW WILL MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS BY MID WEEK AND BE A
BROAD SURFACE LOW/TROUGH COMPLEX OVER MAINLAND ALASKA BY WEEKS
END.

AN OCCLUSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW OVER
THE YUKON DELTA WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND
WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH
MID WEEK AS THE LOW WOBBLES OVER THE BERING SEA.

THERE IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
GALENA TO EAGLE THIS EVENING. EVEN THOUGH CONVECTIVE INDICES ARE
LESS THAN FAVORABLE...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING NORTH THIS EVENING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO SPARK OFF A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.
ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE SPARKED OFF OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING OVERHEAD.

THE SHIFT IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR
A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IN BOTH SURFACE AND H850 TEMPERATURES. BY
WEEKS END...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND
WEST COAST ENABLING MUCH COLDER H850 TEMPERATURES (-1 C TO -10 C)
TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NORTH SLOPE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
EXPECTING FOG...STRATUS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT DRIZZLE TO PERSIST.
HAVE CONTINUED DENSE FOG HEADLINE FOR ZONE 203 AND ADDED ZONE 204
THINKING THAT DENSE FOG WILL SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NORTH WINDS STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD BRING SOME
MODERATE SURF TO THE NORTH SHORE OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY IN ZONE 223 FROM DELTA JUNCTION SOUTH AND IN ZONE 226 IN
THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES THROUGH 7 PM. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME
OVERNIGHT TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR NEAR
RED FLAG CONDITIONS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES
IN ZONE 226 AND ZONE 223 SOUTH OF DELTA JUNCTION WHERE WINDS WILL
BE 15 TO 3O MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL APPROACH 30 PERCENT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
BROOKS RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. NO HYDRO ISSUES ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

SEP 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 152343 AAA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
343 PM AKDT MON SEP 15 2014

...UPDATED TO INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...

THE 15/12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE ARE ONLY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO IN
AGREEMENT ON THE COOLING TREND THIS WEEK WITH A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.

A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER THE BERING SEA FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THIS UPPER LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MAKE FORWARD PROGRESS
EAST MID WEEK AND RESULT IN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SETUP
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE NORTHERN PACIFIC BY THE WEEKEND. ITS
SURFACE REFLECTION...A BROAD 997 MB LOW OVER THE YUKON DELTA WILL
CONTINUE TO FILL AND WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NORTH TONIGHT. AS IT
DRIFTS NORTH IT WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A SECOND LOW AS IT MOVES
EAST ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
RESULTANT LOW WILL MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS BY MID WEEK AND BE A
BROAD SURFACE LOW/TROUGH COMPLEX OVER MAINLAND ALASKA BY WEEKS
END.

AN OCCLUSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW OVER
THE YUKON DELTA WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND
WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH
MID WEEK AS THE LOW WOBBLES OVER THE BERING SEA.

THERE IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
GALENA TO EAGLE THIS EVENING. EVEN THOUGH CONVECTIVE INDICES ARE
LESS THAN FAVORABLE...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING NORTH THIS EVENING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO SPARK OFF A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.
ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE SPARKED OFF OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING OVERHEAD.

THE SHIFT IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR
A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IN BOTH SURFACE AND H850 TEMPERATURES. BY
WEEKS END...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND
WEST COAST ENABLING MUCH COLDER H850 TEMPERATURES (-1 C TO -10 C)
TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NORTH SLOPE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
EXPECTING FOG...STRATUS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT DRIZZLE TO PERSIST.
HAVE CONTINUED DENSE FOG HEADLINE FOR ZONE 203 AND ADDED ZONE 204
THINKING THAT DENSE FOG WILL SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NORTH WINDS STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD BRING SOME
MODERATE SURF TO THE NORTH SHORE OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY IN ZONE 223 FROM DELTA JUNCTION SOUTH AND IN ZONE 226 IN
THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES THROUGH 7 PM. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME
OVERNIGHT TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR NEAR
RED FLAG CONDITIONS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES
IN ZONE 226 AND ZONE 223 SOUTH OF DELTA JUNCTION WHERE WINDS WILL
BE 15 TO 3O MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL APPROACH 30 PERCENT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
BROOKS RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. NO HYDRO ISSUES ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

SEP 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 152225
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
225 PM AKDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 15/12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE ARE ONLY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO IN
AGREEMENT ON THE COOLING TREND THIS WEEK WITH A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.

A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER THE BERING SEA FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THIS UPPER LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MAKE FORWARD PROGRESS
EAST MID WEEK AND RESULT IN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SETUP
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE NORTHERN PACIFIC BY THE WEEKEND. ITS
SURFACE REFLECTION...A BROAD 997 MB LOW OVER THE YUKON DELTA WILL
CONTINUE TO FILL AND WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NORTH TONIGHT. AS IT
DRIFTS NORTH IT WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A SECOND LOW AS IT MOVES
EAST ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
RESULTANT LOW WILL MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS BY MID WEEK AND BE A
BROAD SURFACE LOW/TROUGH COMPLEX OVER MAINLAND ALASKA BY WEEKS
END.

AN OCCLUSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW OVER
THE YUKON DELTA WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND
WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH
MID WEEK AS THE LOW WOBBLES OVER THE BERING SEA.

THERE IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
GALENA TO EAGLE THIS EVENING. EVEN THOUGH CONVECTIVE INDICES ARE
LESS THAN FAVORABLE...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING NORTH THIS EVENING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO SPARK OFF A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.
ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE SPARKED OFF OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING OVERHEAD.

THE SHIFT IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR
A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IN BOTH SURFACE AND H850 TEMPERATURES. BY
WEEKS END...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND
WEST COAST ENABLING MUCH COLDER H850 TEMPERATURES (-1 C TO -10 C)
TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NORTH SLOPE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
EXPECTING FOG...STRATUS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT DRIZZLE TO PERSIST.
HAVE CONTINUED DENSE FOG HEADLINE FOR ZONE 203 AND ADDED ZONE 204
THINKING THAT DENSE FOG WILL SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NORTH WINDS STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD BRING SOME
MODERATE SURF TO THE NORTH SHORE OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
BROOKS RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. NO HYDRO ISSUES ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PK510.

&&

$$

LTH SEP 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 152225
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
225 PM AKDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 15/12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE ARE ONLY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO IN
AGREEMENT ON THE COOLING TREND THIS WEEK WITH A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.

A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER THE BERING SEA FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THIS UPPER LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MAKE FORWARD PROGRESS
EAST MID WEEK AND RESULT IN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SETUP
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE NORTHERN PACIFIC BY THE WEEKEND. ITS
SURFACE REFLECTION...A BROAD 997 MB LOW OVER THE YUKON DELTA WILL
CONTINUE TO FILL AND WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NORTH TONIGHT. AS IT
DRIFTS NORTH IT WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A SECOND LOW AS IT MOVES
EAST ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
RESULTANT LOW WILL MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS BY MID WEEK AND BE A
BROAD SURFACE LOW/TROUGH COMPLEX OVER MAINLAND ALASKA BY WEEKS
END.

AN OCCLUSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW OVER
THE YUKON DELTA WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND
WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH
MID WEEK AS THE LOW WOBBLES OVER THE BERING SEA.

THERE IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
GALENA TO EAGLE THIS EVENING. EVEN THOUGH CONVECTIVE INDICES ARE
LESS THAN FAVORABLE...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING NORTH THIS EVENING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO SPARK OFF A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.
ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE SPARKED OFF OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING OVERHEAD.

THE SHIFT IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR
A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IN BOTH SURFACE AND H850 TEMPERATURES. BY
WEEKS END...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND
WEST COAST ENABLING MUCH COLDER H850 TEMPERATURES (-1 C TO -10 C)
TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NORTH SLOPE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
EXPECTING FOG...STRATUS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT DRIZZLE TO PERSIST.
HAVE CONTINUED DENSE FOG HEADLINE FOR ZONE 203 AND ADDED ZONE 204
THINKING THAT DENSE FOG WILL SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NORTH WINDS STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD BRING SOME
MODERATE SURF TO THE NORTH SHORE OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
BROOKS RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. NO HYDRO ISSUES ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PK510.

&&

$$

LTH SEP 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 151025
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
225 AM AKDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUE TO PRESENT SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS OUT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIODS. WILL NUDGE TO MODEL MEAN
FOR THE SHORT TERM. AGREE ON A SLOW COOLING TREND BEGINNING IN THE
NORTHWEST AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST. TIMING OF PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
DIFFER ONLY SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE MODELS SO WILL LEAN ON THE NAM
FOR THE SHORT TERM.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...533 DAM CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE OVER BRISTOL BAY
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST TODAY THEN SWING BACK AROUND OVER
NUNIVAK ISLAND TONIGHT...THEN BACK OVER BRISTOL BAY BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE CROSSING OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA BY THURSDAY EVENING. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM
OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA TO THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL SLOWLY PULL BACK
SOUTHEAST AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. 565 DAM
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE BERING SEA LATE IN THE WEEK.

SURFACE...A 994MB LOW IN BRISTOL BAY WILL MERGE WITH A 997MB LOW
OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND MOVE NORTH OVER THE YUKON DELTA THIS
EVENING. A 1003MB LOW NEAR ADAK WILL MOVE TO COLD BAY BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND ABSORB THE LOW OVER THE YUKON DELTA AS IT DEEPENS TO
994MB. A 997MB LOW NEAR 48N 180 WILL MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ABSORB THE LOW IN BRISTOL BAY AS IT
DEEPENS TO 972 MB. A 1028MB HIGH OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO CANADA. THE LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. A 1000MB LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
MACKENZIE BAY TUESDAY NIGHT..THEN MOVE EAST.

ARCTIC COAST AND PLAIN...WINDS ARE COMING DOWN...BUT LOW STRATUS
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15
MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S FOR MOST COASTAL
AREAS. INLAND AREAS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER DURING THE DAY...AND
SOME INLAND AREAS COULD SEE LOWS IN THE 20S. ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT OCCURS WILL BE LIGHT. GOES MVFR PROBABILITY 4KM PRODUCT AT
150745Z HAS MOST OF THE ARCTIC COVERED. THE GOES IFR PROBABILITY
PRODUCT HAS THE ARCTIC FLAGGED FROM POINT LAY EAST TO KUPARIK AND
FROM OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN TO OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEND MOISTURE NORTH. A BAND OF RAIN WILL WORK THROUGH
THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING BRINGING UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF NOME. ANOTHER BAND WILL MOVE OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY...SO EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TODAY SOUTH
OF GALENA WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH IN
AREAS THAT DO GET SHOWERS. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST IN MOST
AREAS NEXT COUPLE DAYS...BUT LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH OVER THE COAST AS THE WEEK GOES ON AND THE LOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE BERING SEA. TEMPERATURES NOT
CHANGING MUCH THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN THE COOLING TREND
BEGINS. AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE BY
NOON...BUT INLAND AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT TONIGHT COULD SEE DENSE
FOG DEVELOP.

INTERIOR...LEE SIDE TROUGH IS BREAKING DOWN AND WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE. A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT
IT TO BE OVER THE FAIRBANKS AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME RAIN...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS A
GENERAL RULE WILL BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE...BUT COOLER THAN THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...WINDS STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD BRING SOME
MODERATE SURF TO THE AREA AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB SEP 14




000
FXAK69 PAFG 151025
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
225 AM AKDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUE TO PRESENT SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS OUT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIODS. WILL NUDGE TO MODEL MEAN
FOR THE SHORT TERM. AGREE ON A SLOW COOLING TREND BEGINNING IN THE
NORTHWEST AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST. TIMING OF PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
DIFFER ONLY SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE MODELS SO WILL LEAN ON THE NAM
FOR THE SHORT TERM.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...533 DAM CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE OVER BRISTOL BAY
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST TODAY THEN SWING BACK AROUND OVER
NUNIVAK ISLAND TONIGHT...THEN BACK OVER BRISTOL BAY BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE CROSSING OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA BY THURSDAY EVENING. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM
OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA TO THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL SLOWLY PULL BACK
SOUTHEAST AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. 565 DAM
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE BERING SEA LATE IN THE WEEK.

SURFACE...A 994MB LOW IN BRISTOL BAY WILL MERGE WITH A 997MB LOW
OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND MOVE NORTH OVER THE YUKON DELTA THIS
EVENING. A 1003MB LOW NEAR ADAK WILL MOVE TO COLD BAY BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND ABSORB THE LOW OVER THE YUKON DELTA AS IT DEEPENS TO
994MB. A 997MB LOW NEAR 48N 180 WILL MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ABSORB THE LOW IN BRISTOL BAY AS IT
DEEPENS TO 972 MB. A 1028MB HIGH OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO CANADA. THE LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. A 1000MB LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
MACKENZIE BAY TUESDAY NIGHT..THEN MOVE EAST.

ARCTIC COAST AND PLAIN...WINDS ARE COMING DOWN...BUT LOW STRATUS
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15
MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S FOR MOST COASTAL
AREAS. INLAND AREAS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER DURING THE DAY...AND
SOME INLAND AREAS COULD SEE LOWS IN THE 20S. ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT OCCURS WILL BE LIGHT. GOES MVFR PROBABILITY 4KM PRODUCT AT
150745Z HAS MOST OF THE ARCTIC COVERED. THE GOES IFR PROBABILITY
PRODUCT HAS THE ARCTIC FLAGGED FROM POINT LAY EAST TO KUPARIK AND
FROM OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN TO OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEND MOISTURE NORTH. A BAND OF RAIN WILL WORK THROUGH
THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING BRINGING UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF NOME. ANOTHER BAND WILL MOVE OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY...SO EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TODAY SOUTH
OF GALENA WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH IN
AREAS THAT DO GET SHOWERS. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST IN MOST
AREAS NEXT COUPLE DAYS...BUT LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH OVER THE COAST AS THE WEEK GOES ON AND THE LOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE BERING SEA. TEMPERATURES NOT
CHANGING MUCH THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN THE COOLING TREND
BEGINS. AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE BY
NOON...BUT INLAND AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT TONIGHT COULD SEE DENSE
FOG DEVELOP.

INTERIOR...LEE SIDE TROUGH IS BREAKING DOWN AND WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE. A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT
IT TO BE OVER THE FAIRBANKS AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME RAIN...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS A
GENERAL RULE WILL BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE...BUT COOLER THAN THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...WINDS STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD BRING SOME
MODERATE SURF TO THE AREA AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB SEP 14





000
FXAK69 PAFG 142049
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1249 PM AKDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA
AND WESTERN ALASKA WITH A RIDGE OVER NW CANADA WILL PROGRESS
SLOWLY EAST WITH THE TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA LATE IN THE WEEK.
THIS IS CAUSING MODERATE SOUTHERLY CHINOOK FLOW AND RECORD WARMTH
OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR NOW THAT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH WED.
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE STATE ARE
BRINGING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THEM
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE CLOUDY AND COOL IN THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE WILL MOVE NW
TONIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE OCCURING WITH THIS.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM GALENA TO BETTLES TO EAGLE WILL
MOVE TO DEERING TO ARCTIC VILLAGE BY 4AM MON AND TO POINT HOPE TO
BARTER ISLAND BY 4PM MON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WHERE SHOWERS FALL
CAN EXPECT .10-.25 IN OF RAIN WITH THIS. CLEARING IS OCCURING SOUTH
OF THE TROUGH.

A THIRD TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR MON
PM...TO KOYUK TO FORT YUKON BY 4AM TUE...TO NOME TO ARCTIC VILLAGE
BY 4PM TUE AND THEN WEAKENING. THIS WILL CAUSE CHINOOK FLOW OVER
THE ALASKA RANGE TO WEAKEN MON AND ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH
THIS FEATURE IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.

SURFACE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL RECEDED
EAST THROUGH TUE. THIS IS CAUSING STRONG EAST WINDS ALONG THE
ARCTIC COAST THAT WILL DECREASE THROUGH TUE.

A STRONG LOW IN BRISTOL BAY THAT HOLD THE REMAINS OF A TROPICAL
STORM WILL SPLIT TONIGHT FORMING A 998 MB LOW OVER THE YUKON DELTA
MON THAT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUE. AN OCCLUDED
FRONT WITH THIS LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE TO THE YUKON DELTA
SLEETMUTE BY 4AM MON...AND TO GAMBELL TO MCGRATH BY 4PM MON AND
THEN DISSIPATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS.

A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA TUE AND WED
WILL CAUSE STRONG NORTH WINDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST TUE
NIGHT THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH TUE. PRECIPITATION FIELDS
DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH THE NAM MOVING PRECIPITATION NORTH FASTER
THROUGH 4PM MON. FAVOR THE FASTER NAM SOLUTION THROUGH MON AND
THEN WILL FOLLOW THE GFS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
STRONG NORTH WINDS ALONG THE WEST COAST TUE NIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK COULD CAUSE HIGH SURF NORTH SHORE OF ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND WED-FRI.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CAN EXPECT .10-.25 IN OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR TONIGHT AND
ANOTHER .24-.50 INCH TUE. DO NOT ANTICIPATE PROBLEMS WITH THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS 50 MPH THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES
THROUGH MON AM BUT HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ510-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

SEP 14




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