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000
FXAK69 PAFG 272032
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1232 PM AKDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL IN THE SHORT TERM WITH MINIMAL
SPREAD NOTED BETWEEN MODEL FAMILIES AND FROM RUN TO RUN. THE
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND VERIFIED WELL AGAINST THE 12Z AND 18Z
ANALYSIS. MODEL SPREAD IN THE MID AND LONG TERM HAS TRENDED LESS
THAN THAT OBSERVED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.

WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOWS OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA...THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA AND THE NORTHERN YUKON. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST.

A THERMAL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM NEAR EAGLE TO JUST SOUTH OF
FAIRBANKS AND TO NEAR MCGRATH. 990MB LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND BE ABSORBED BY A TRIPLE POINT LOW
MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. A WEAK LEE SIDE LOW IN THE
SOUTHERN YUKON HAS BROUGHT A MORE MOIST AIRMASS OVER SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTERIOR. RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EAST OF DELTA JUNCTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS RISE TO AROUND 3000 FT TODAY
THROUGH THE ALASKA RANG PASSES AND WILL FALL AGAIN BELOW PASS
LEVEL TONIGHT. UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE
PASSES TONIGHT.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE ON THE NORTH SLOPE. EXPECT THE FOG TO
RETREAT TO THE NORTH TO ENCOMPASS ONLY THE COASTAL ZONES BY THIS
AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL
LIKELY FALL AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG ALSO IMPACTING PARTS OF
THE WEST COAST ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT HOWEVER THE
LOWER YK DELTA AND EASTERN NORTON SOUND NEAR UNALAKLEET
EXPERIENCING FOG AND LOW CEILINGS WITH MARINE STRATUS AND FOG
TODAY. FOG EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN IN THESE AREAS TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN MIN RH VALUES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN AND
NEAR ALASKA RANGE PASSES...MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY AND TANANA FLATS.
MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID TO LOW 20S ARE EXPECTED IN DRIEST SPOTS
BEFORE SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON WELL ABOVE 50 PERCENT IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT NE TO SE 5 TO 15 MPH HOWEVER VARIABLE
AND GUSTS WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF DELTA
JUNCTION...SOUTH OF CHICKEN AND NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

CCC APR 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 271023
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
223 AM AKDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH 60 HOURS. LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUE. SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS. THE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS ARE NOT TO IMPRESSIVE BUT THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM FROM DELTA EAST.

THE GFS DOES SOMEHOW DEVELOP A COLD BALL AT 850 NEAR DEADHORSE ON
MON AFTERNOON BUT THE ECMWF AND THE NAM ARE VOID OF THIS. IN
REALITY IT WILL NOT AFFECT MUCH AT THE SURFACE BUT JUST A MYSTERY
OF WHERE THE COLD AIR MATERIALIZES FROM.

EXTENSIVE DENSE FOG ON THE ARCTIC SLOPE AND THE WEST COAST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MON. PARALLEL TO ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST AND THE WEST COAST FROM THE BERING STRAIT NORTHWARD
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FOG AND STRATUS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES HAVE INCREASED WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS HAS TAKE THE RH VALUES FROM THE
TEENS TO THE 20S AND 30S. THE VALUES SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE
TEENS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT LEAST.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

CF APR 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 271023
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
223 AM AKDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH 60 HOURS. LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUE. SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS. THE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS ARE NOT TO IMPRESSIVE BUT THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM FROM DELTA EAST.

THE GFS DOES SOMEHOW DEVELOP A COLD BALL AT 850 NEAR DEADHORSE ON
MON AFTERNOON BUT THE ECMWF AND THE NAM ARE VOID OF THIS. IN
REALITY IT WILL NOT AFFECT MUCH AT THE SURFACE BUT JUST A MYSTERY
OF WHERE THE COLD AIR MATERIALIZES FROM.

EXTENSIVE DENSE FOG ON THE ARCTIC SLOPE AND THE WEST COAST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MON. PARALLEL TO ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST AND THE WEST COAST FROM THE BERING STRAIT NORTHWARD
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FOG AND STRATUS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES HAVE INCREASED WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS HAS TAKE THE RH VALUES FROM THE
TEENS TO THE 20S AND 30S. THE VALUES SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE
TEENS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT LEAST.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

CF APR 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 271023
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
223 AM AKDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH 60 HOURS. LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUE. SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS. THE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS ARE NOT TO IMPRESSIVE BUT THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM FROM DELTA EAST.

THE GFS DOES SOMEHOW DEVELOP A COLD BALL AT 850 NEAR DEADHORSE ON
MON AFTERNOON BUT THE ECMWF AND THE NAM ARE VOID OF THIS. IN
REALITY IT WILL NOT AFFECT MUCH AT THE SURFACE BUT JUST A MYSTERY
OF WHERE THE COLD AIR MATERIALIZES FROM.

EXTENSIVE DENSE FOG ON THE ARCTIC SLOPE AND THE WEST COAST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MON. PARALLEL TO ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST AND THE WEST COAST FROM THE BERING STRAIT NORTHWARD
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FOG AND STRATUS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES HAVE INCREASED WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS HAS TAKE THE RH VALUES FROM THE
TEENS TO THE 20S AND 30S. THE VALUES SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE
TEENS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT LEAST.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

CF APR 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 271023
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
223 AM AKDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH 60 HOURS. LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUE. SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS. THE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS ARE NOT TO IMPRESSIVE BUT THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM FROM DELTA EAST.

THE GFS DOES SOMEHOW DEVELOP A COLD BALL AT 850 NEAR DEADHORSE ON
MON AFTERNOON BUT THE ECMWF AND THE NAM ARE VOID OF THIS. IN
REALITY IT WILL NOT AFFECT MUCH AT THE SURFACE BUT JUST A MYSTERY
OF WHERE THE COLD AIR MATERIALIZES FROM.

EXTENSIVE DENSE FOG ON THE ARCTIC SLOPE AND THE WEST COAST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MON. PARALLEL TO ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST AND THE WEST COAST FROM THE BERING STRAIT NORTHWARD
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FOG AND STRATUS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES HAVE INCREASED WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS HAS TAKE THE RH VALUES FROM THE
TEENS TO THE 20S AND 30S. THE VALUES SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE
TEENS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT LEAST.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

CF APR 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 262142
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
142 PM AKDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND VERIFIED WELL AGAINST THE 12Z AND 18Z
ANALYSIS. MINIMAL SPREAD EXISTS BETWEEN MODEL FAMILIES AND RUN TO
RUN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER MODELS SPREAD INCREASES
CONSIDERABLY IN THE MID TERM AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR WITH RH
VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
ARE LIGHT. WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE REMAIN LIGHT OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WINDS ARE LIMITING THE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR WHILE AIDING LOW CEILINGS AND
FOG OVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE NORTH SLOPE AND WEST
COAST. DENSE FOG THIS MORNING OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
NORTH SLOPE HAVE ENDED AS THE FOG HAS THINNED. NOT MUCH CHANGE
EXPECTED ON THE NORTH SLOPE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY WITH AREAS OF
FOG PERHAPS BECOMING DENSE AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THE WEST
COAST ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT MAY ALSO SEE MORE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

A 986 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO SWING
A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN YUKON AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA MONDAY
MORNING. A WEAK LEE SIDE LOW FORMS OVER THE YUKON NEAR BEAVER AND
MERGES WITH THE REMAINS OF THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR. MOISTURE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE EAST OF
DELTA JUNCTION BUT MORE FAVORED ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER AS JUST
NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX AND CAPE VALUES AROUND 200 NUDGE INTO THE
AREA.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RECOVER INTO THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR TONIGHT AS MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. MIN RH VALUES TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 20S AS COMPARED TO THE TEENS TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT OVERALL HOWEVER GUSTY AN VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED TOMORROW NEAR SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
TOMORROW.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

CCC APR 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 262142
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
142 PM AKDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND VERIFIED WELL AGAINST THE 12Z AND 18Z
ANALYSIS. MINIMAL SPREAD EXISTS BETWEEN MODEL FAMILIES AND RUN TO
RUN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER MODELS SPREAD INCREASES
CONSIDERABLY IN THE MID TERM AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR WITH RH
VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
ARE LIGHT. WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE REMAIN LIGHT OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WINDS ARE LIMITING THE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR WHILE AIDING LOW CEILINGS AND
FOG OVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE NORTH SLOPE AND WEST
COAST. DENSE FOG THIS MORNING OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
NORTH SLOPE HAVE ENDED AS THE FOG HAS THINNED. NOT MUCH CHANGE
EXPECTED ON THE NORTH SLOPE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY WITH AREAS OF
FOG PERHAPS BECOMING DENSE AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THE WEST
COAST ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT MAY ALSO SEE MORE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

A 986 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO SWING
A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN YUKON AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA MONDAY
MORNING. A WEAK LEE SIDE LOW FORMS OVER THE YUKON NEAR BEAVER AND
MERGES WITH THE REMAINS OF THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR. MOISTURE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE EAST OF
DELTA JUNCTION BUT MORE FAVORED ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER AS JUST
NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX AND CAPE VALUES AROUND 200 NUDGE INTO THE
AREA.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RECOVER INTO THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR TONIGHT AS MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. MIN RH VALUES TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 20S AS COMPARED TO THE TEENS TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT OVERALL HOWEVER GUSTY AN VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED TOMORROW NEAR SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
TOMORROW.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

CCC APR 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 261254
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
454 AM AKDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SIMILAR THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS BUT THEN BEGIN TO LOOK LIKE
SPAGHETTI AFTER THAT TIME FRAME. LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY. OCCLUDED FRONT
FROM GULF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE. A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE IMPACT THE EASTERN
INTERIOR TONIGHT AND MON. THERMAL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN
INTERIOR AND REMAIN A THREAT FOR SPARKING OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MON.

EXTENSIVE FOG OVER THE NORTHERN ACTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. SOME FOG AS LEAKED INTO THE BERING STRAIT. FOG APPEARS
EXTENSIVE ON THE ARCTIC COAST PRESENTLY.

WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE A FACTOR AT ANY LOCATION IN NORTHERN
ALASKA CURRENTLY SO NO WATCHES/WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED AND ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY
AND RECOVER A BIT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM
THE SOUTHEAST.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

CF APR 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 261254
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
454 AM AKDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SIMILAR THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS BUT THEN BEGIN TO LOOK LIKE
SPAGHETTI AFTER THAT TIME FRAME. LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY. OCCLUDED FRONT
FROM GULF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE. A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE IMPACT THE EASTERN
INTERIOR TONIGHT AND MON. THERMAL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN
INTERIOR AND REMAIN A THREAT FOR SPARKING OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MON.

EXTENSIVE FOG OVER THE NORTHERN ACTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. SOME FOG AS LEAKED INTO THE BERING STRAIT. FOG APPEARS
EXTENSIVE ON THE ARCTIC COAST PRESENTLY.

WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE A FACTOR AT ANY LOCATION IN NORTHERN
ALASKA CURRENTLY SO NO WATCHES/WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED AND ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY
AND RECOVER A BIT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM
THE SOUTHEAST.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

CF APR 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 261254
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
454 AM AKDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SIMILAR THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS BUT THEN BEGIN TO LOOK LIKE
SPAGHETTI AFTER THAT TIME FRAME. LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY. OCCLUDED FRONT
FROM GULF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE. A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE IMPACT THE EASTERN
INTERIOR TONIGHT AND MON. THERMAL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN
INTERIOR AND REMAIN A THREAT FOR SPARKING OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MON.

EXTENSIVE FOG OVER THE NORTHERN ACTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. SOME FOG AS LEAKED INTO THE BERING STRAIT. FOG APPEARS
EXTENSIVE ON THE ARCTIC COAST PRESENTLY.

WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE A FACTOR AT ANY LOCATION IN NORTHERN
ALASKA CURRENTLY SO NO WATCHES/WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED AND ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY
AND RECOVER A BIT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM
THE SOUTHEAST.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

CF APR 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 261254
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
454 AM AKDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SIMILAR THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS BUT THEN BEGIN TO LOOK LIKE
SPAGHETTI AFTER THAT TIME FRAME. LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY. OCCLUDED FRONT
FROM GULF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE. A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE IMPACT THE EASTERN
INTERIOR TONIGHT AND MON. THERMAL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN
INTERIOR AND REMAIN A THREAT FOR SPARKING OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MON.

EXTENSIVE FOG OVER THE NORTHERN ACTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. SOME FOG AS LEAKED INTO THE BERING STRAIT. FOG APPEARS
EXTENSIVE ON THE ARCTIC COAST PRESENTLY.

WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE A FACTOR AT ANY LOCATION IN NORTHERN
ALASKA CURRENTLY SO NO WATCHES/WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED AND ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY
AND RECOVER A BIT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM
THE SOUTHEAST.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

CF APR 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 252011
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1211 PM AKDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND VERIFIED WELL OFF OF THE 12Z AND 18
ANALYSIS. MODELS EXHIBIT MINIMAL SPREAD THE SHORT TERM. THE MODELS
ARE EXHIBITING CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN BOTH THE MID TERM AND IN
THE LONG TERM.

DENSE FOG HAS BEGUN TO THIN ON THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH SLOPE
BUT TAKING LONGER TO DISSIPATE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE. WILL
ALLOW THE DENSE FOG HEADLINES EXPIRE WITH WEAK TROUGH MOVING EAST
TO WEST OVER THE NORTH SLOPE HELPING TO MIX OUT OUT THE FOG. FOG
LIKELY TO REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE INTERIOR WITH A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM NEAR CHICKEN WEST THROUGH FAIRBANKS AND SOUTHWEST
TO LAKE MINCHUMINA. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY MOSTLY
NORTH AND EAST OF FAIRBANKS. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN AND
NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES ADDING TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY
WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TODAY. MIN RH VALUES
WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 20S TOMORROW AS SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST
AIRMASS PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR FROM CANADA. WINDS
TOMORROW IN AND NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA. A SECOND AND MORE POWERFUL SHORT WAVE
ROTATES NORTHWEST AROUND A LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA INTO
THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR MONDAY. WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
YUKON WHICH WILL BRING WEAK UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE...UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY. RAIN
IS EXPECTED AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVEL
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT
MODERATION EXPECTED MONDAY AS A MORE MOIST AIRMASS MOVES OVER
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR. MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE TEENS TODAY AND INTO THE 20S SUNDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IN AND NEAR THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE MET LOCALLY IN THESE
AREAS TODAY HOWEVER FUELS NOT LIKELY TO SUPPORT RAPID FIRE GROWTH
AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS GUSTY SUNDAY SO NOT EXPECTING
TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA TOMORROW.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

CCC APR 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 252011
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1211 PM AKDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND VERIFIED WELL OFF OF THE 12Z AND 18
ANALYSIS. MODELS EXHIBIT MINIMAL SPREAD THE SHORT TERM. THE MODELS
ARE EXHIBITING CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN BOTH THE MID TERM AND IN
THE LONG TERM.

DENSE FOG HAS BEGUN TO THIN ON THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH SLOPE
BUT TAKING LONGER TO DISSIPATE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE. WILL
ALLOW THE DENSE FOG HEADLINES EXPIRE WITH WEAK TROUGH MOVING EAST
TO WEST OVER THE NORTH SLOPE HELPING TO MIX OUT OUT THE FOG. FOG
LIKELY TO REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE INTERIOR WITH A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM NEAR CHICKEN WEST THROUGH FAIRBANKS AND SOUTHWEST
TO LAKE MINCHUMINA. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY MOSTLY
NORTH AND EAST OF FAIRBANKS. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN AND
NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES ADDING TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY
WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TODAY. MIN RH VALUES
WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 20S TOMORROW AS SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST
AIRMASS PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR FROM CANADA. WINDS
TOMORROW IN AND NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA. A SECOND AND MORE POWERFUL SHORT WAVE
ROTATES NORTHWEST AROUND A LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA INTO
THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR MONDAY. WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
YUKON WHICH WILL BRING WEAK UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE...UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY. RAIN
IS EXPECTED AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVEL
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT
MODERATION EXPECTED MONDAY AS A MORE MOIST AIRMASS MOVES OVER
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR. MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE TEENS TODAY AND INTO THE 20S SUNDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IN AND NEAR THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE MET LOCALLY IN THESE
AREAS TODAY HOWEVER FUELS NOT LIKELY TO SUPPORT RAPID FIRE GROWTH
AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS GUSTY SUNDAY SO NOT EXPECTING
TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA TOMORROW.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

CCC APR 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 251247
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
447 AM AKDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS. SHORT WAVE
MOVES UP THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE TODAY. THIS WILL ADD
SOME MOISTURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE FOR AREAS EAST OF FAIRBANKS. THERE
MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST THAT WILL BE SET OFF WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE FEATURE.

WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF ON THE ARCTIC COAST AND THE FOG AND THE
STRATUS HAS MOVED IN FOR VARIOUS LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY IN THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARCTIC.

SLIGHT WARMING FOR THE EASTERN INTERIOR WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING
NORTH. THIS WILL LAST THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLING FILTERS DOWN TO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. 850H TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE ALASKA RANGE ZONES WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION TODAY AND SUNDAY.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.
&&

$$

CF APR 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 251247
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
447 AM AKDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS. SHORT WAVE
MOVES UP THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE TODAY. THIS WILL ADD
SOME MOISTURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE FOR AREAS EAST OF FAIRBANKS. THERE
MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST THAT WILL BE SET OFF WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE FEATURE.

WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF ON THE ARCTIC COAST AND THE FOG AND THE
STRATUS HAS MOVED IN FOR VARIOUS LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY IN THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARCTIC.

SLIGHT WARMING FOR THE EASTERN INTERIOR WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING
NORTH. THIS WILL LAST THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLING FILTERS DOWN TO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. 850H TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE ALASKA RANGE ZONES WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION TODAY AND SUNDAY.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.
&&

$$

CF APR 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 251247
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
447 AM AKDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS. SHORT WAVE
MOVES UP THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE TODAY. THIS WILL ADD
SOME MOISTURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE FOR AREAS EAST OF FAIRBANKS. THERE
MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST THAT WILL BE SET OFF WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE FEATURE.

WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF ON THE ARCTIC COAST AND THE FOG AND THE
STRATUS HAS MOVED IN FOR VARIOUS LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY IN THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARCTIC.

SLIGHT WARMING FOR THE EASTERN INTERIOR WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING
NORTH. THIS WILL LAST THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLING FILTERS DOWN TO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. 850H TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE ALASKA RANGE ZONES WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION TODAY AND SUNDAY.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.
&&

$$

CF APR 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 251247
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
447 AM AKDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS. SHORT WAVE
MOVES UP THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE TODAY. THIS WILL ADD
SOME MOISTURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE FOR AREAS EAST OF FAIRBANKS. THERE
MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST THAT WILL BE SET OFF WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE FEATURE.

WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF ON THE ARCTIC COAST AND THE FOG AND THE
STRATUS HAS MOVED IN FOR VARIOUS LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY IN THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARCTIC.

SLIGHT WARMING FOR THE EASTERN INTERIOR WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING
NORTH. THIS WILL LAST THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLING FILTERS DOWN TO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. 850H TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE ALASKA RANGE ZONES WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION TODAY AND SUNDAY.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.
&&

$$

CF APR 15





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