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000
FXAK69 PAFG 281355
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
455 AM AKST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. DEEP COLD SHORT WAVE
OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WILL RETREAT EASTWARD WHILE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE WEST
COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA BY EARLY THURSDAY WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN ALASKA. VERY COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WILL REMAIN AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY THEN A
GRADUAL RISE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.

SURFACE...A LOW NEAR BANKS ISLAND WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST TO THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU THEN MOVE SOUTH OVER INTERIOR
ALASKA FRI. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CHUKCHI
SEA THU NIGHT AND TO BARROW NORTH ON FRI.

WEST COAST...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE WEST COAST
WITH VERY COLD AIR REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST COAST
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST OF ZONE 207 ON FRIDAY.

ARCTIC...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC SLOPE AND
VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED. PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WEATHER FRONT
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM BARROW WEST ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW.

INTERIOR....VERY COLD VALLEY TEMPS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DIURNAL RISE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 850
TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH VALLEY TEMPS STILL
ON THE COLD SIDE BUT NOT AS COLD AS WE HAVE SEEN EARLY THIS WEEK.
A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES TOWARDS THE ALASKA RANGE FROM THE SOUTH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR
THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE FROM TOK SOUTH.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ245.
&&

$$

JK JAN 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 281355
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
455 AM AKST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. DEEP COLD SHORT WAVE
OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WILL RETREAT EASTWARD WHILE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE WEST
COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA BY EARLY THURSDAY WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN ALASKA. VERY COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WILL REMAIN AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY THEN A
GRADUAL RISE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.

SURFACE...A LOW NEAR BANKS ISLAND WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST TO THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU THEN MOVE SOUTH OVER INTERIOR
ALASKA FRI. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CHUKCHI
SEA THU NIGHT AND TO BARROW NORTH ON FRI.

WEST COAST...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE WEST COAST
WITH VERY COLD AIR REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST COAST
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST OF ZONE 207 ON FRIDAY.

ARCTIC...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC SLOPE AND
VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED. PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WEATHER FRONT
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM BARROW WEST ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW.

INTERIOR....VERY COLD VALLEY TEMPS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DIURNAL RISE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 850
TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH VALLEY TEMPS STILL
ON THE COLD SIDE BUT NOT AS COLD AS WE HAVE SEEN EARLY THIS WEEK.
A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES TOWARDS THE ALASKA RANGE FROM THE SOUTH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR
THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE FROM TOK SOUTH.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ245.
&&

$$

JK JAN 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 272348
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
248 PM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. DEEP COLD SHORT WAVE
OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WILL RETREAT EASTWARD WHILE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE WEST
COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA BY EARLY THURSDAY WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN ALASKA.

THE HIGH WILL ORIENT MORE OF A WEST TO EAST POSITION BY FRIDAY AND
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL INFLUENCE MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA.

VERY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ALASKA FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK BUT MODERATE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY. HOWEVER THE MODELS DIFFER
WIDELY IN THE MID RANGE.

STRONG WINDS AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST
WITH TROF JUST ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE ARCTIC COAST. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. CURRENTLY...SNOWFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS CAUSING THE VISIBILITY TO FALL BELOW
ONE HALF MILES IN MANY LOCATIONS. WHEN THE SNOWFALL
DIMINISHES...THE VISIBILITY SHOULD GREATLY IMPROVE AS THE WINDS
WILL BE SUBSIDING AS WELL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ213-AKZ215.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

CF JAN 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 272348
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
248 PM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. DEEP COLD SHORT WAVE
OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WILL RETREAT EASTWARD WHILE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE WEST
COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA BY EARLY THURSDAY WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN ALASKA.

THE HIGH WILL ORIENT MORE OF A WEST TO EAST POSITION BY FRIDAY AND
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL INFLUENCE MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA.

VERY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ALASKA FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK BUT MODERATE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY. HOWEVER THE MODELS DIFFER
WIDELY IN THE MID RANGE.

STRONG WINDS AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST
WITH TROF JUST ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE ARCTIC COAST. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. CURRENTLY...SNOWFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS CAUSING THE VISIBILITY TO FALL BELOW
ONE HALF MILES IN MANY LOCATIONS. WHEN THE SNOWFALL
DIMINISHES...THE VISIBILITY SHOULD GREATLY IMPROVE AS THE WINDS
WILL BE SUBSIDING AS WELL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ213-AKZ215.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

CF JAN 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 271254
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
354 AM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A DEEP 490 DM LOW AT 500 MB NEAR INUVIK WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST
TODAY. A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WEAK RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA WILL
BUILD THROUGH WED. STRONGER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE BERING SEA
THROUGH WED WILL BUILD EAST OVER WESTERN ALASKA THU AND OVER THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS THAT
GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WED FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER NORTHERN ALASKA AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER
NORTHERN ALASKA AND BRINGS WARMER AIR ALOFT.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM INUVIK TO BETTLES WILL MOVE TO
EAGLE EAST TODAY. THIS IS CAUSING NORTH WINDS THROUGH BROOKS RANGE
PASSES TODAY.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE NOW ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST WILL FROM BARROW
EAST WILL MOVE TO ANAKTUVUK TO INUVIK BY 3PM TUE AND THEN MOVE EAST.
THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MENTIONED BELOW.

A 3RD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM RUSSIA INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA
WED AND TO THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST THU. EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN
FLURRIES WITH THIS.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -12C OVER THE SW INTERIOR TO -30C
OVER NE ALASKA. LITTLE CHANGE TODAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE 2-3C
WED AND ANOTHER 1-2C THU.

SURFACE...
A SURFACE TROUGH NOW ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST FROM BARROW EAST WILL
MOVE TO ANAKTUVUK TO INUVIK BY 3PM TUE AND THEN MOVE EAST. LOW
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL DIMINISH
NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH WITH BLOWING
SNOW ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT IN THE EASTERN ARCTIC. WINDS AND
FLURRIES WILL DECREASE NORTH OF THE TROUGH.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA TO THE CHUKCHI
SEA WILL BUILD NORTH OVER THE NORTH SLOPE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THU. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS GENERALLY COLD AND DRY UNDER THE
HIGH. IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS LOWS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 30 TO 50
BELOW THROUGH WED THEN SLOWLY WARMING.

AN OCCLUDED FRONT IN THE SE BERING SEA AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA IS
CAUSING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN ZONES 214 AND 215 THAT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS ALSO CAUSING NE WINDS OF
15-25 MPH ZONES 211-215.

A STRONG FRONT IN EASTERN RUSSIA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
CHUKCHI SEA THU PM. THIS WILL CAUSE STRONG SOUTH SOUTH WINDS
ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA THU PM.

AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING NORTH TO THE GULF OF ALASKA COAST BY 3PM
WED WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR WED NIGHT AND THU.
EXPECT A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SIMILAR THROUGH 3PM TUE. AFTER THAT THE
GFS BRINGS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH EAST ACROSS THE CHUKCHI
SEA THAN THE NAM FOR WED AND THU. THE GFS ALSO HAS A COINCIDENT
SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS STRONGER THAN THE NAM SOLUTION AND WEAKER
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WED AND THU. WE FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE
THERE IS NOW A STRONG FEATURE IN THE WESTERN SEA OF OKHOTSK THAT
IS MOVING NORTH AND FEEDING ENERGY INTO THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ202-AKZ213-AKZ215-AKZ218.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ206.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ240.
&&

$$

JB JAN 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 271254
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
354 AM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A DEEP 490 DM LOW AT 500 MB NEAR INUVIK WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST
TODAY. A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WEAK RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA WILL
BUILD THROUGH WED. STRONGER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE BERING SEA
THROUGH WED WILL BUILD EAST OVER WESTERN ALASKA THU AND OVER THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS THAT
GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WED FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER NORTHERN ALASKA AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER
NORTHERN ALASKA AND BRINGS WARMER AIR ALOFT.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM INUVIK TO BETTLES WILL MOVE TO
EAGLE EAST TODAY. THIS IS CAUSING NORTH WINDS THROUGH BROOKS RANGE
PASSES TODAY.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE NOW ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST WILL FROM BARROW
EAST WILL MOVE TO ANAKTUVUK TO INUVIK BY 3PM TUE AND THEN MOVE EAST.
THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MENTIONED BELOW.

A 3RD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM RUSSIA INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA
WED AND TO THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST THU. EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN
FLURRIES WITH THIS.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -12C OVER THE SW INTERIOR TO -30C
OVER NE ALASKA. LITTLE CHANGE TODAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE 2-3C
WED AND ANOTHER 1-2C THU.

SURFACE...
A SURFACE TROUGH NOW ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST FROM BARROW EAST WILL
MOVE TO ANAKTUVUK TO INUVIK BY 3PM TUE AND THEN MOVE EAST. LOW
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL DIMINISH
NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH WITH BLOWING
SNOW ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT IN THE EASTERN ARCTIC. WINDS AND
FLURRIES WILL DECREASE NORTH OF THE TROUGH.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA TO THE CHUKCHI
SEA WILL BUILD NORTH OVER THE NORTH SLOPE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THU. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS GENERALLY COLD AND DRY UNDER THE
HIGH. IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS LOWS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 30 TO 50
BELOW THROUGH WED THEN SLOWLY WARMING.

AN OCCLUDED FRONT IN THE SE BERING SEA AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA IS
CAUSING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN ZONES 214 AND 215 THAT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS ALSO CAUSING NE WINDS OF
15-25 MPH ZONES 211-215.

A STRONG FRONT IN EASTERN RUSSIA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
CHUKCHI SEA THU PM. THIS WILL CAUSE STRONG SOUTH SOUTH WINDS
ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA THU PM.

AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING NORTH TO THE GULF OF ALASKA COAST BY 3PM
WED WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR WED NIGHT AND THU.
EXPECT A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SIMILAR THROUGH 3PM TUE. AFTER THAT THE
GFS BRINGS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH EAST ACROSS THE CHUKCHI
SEA THAN THE NAM FOR WED AND THU. THE GFS ALSO HAS A COINCIDENT
SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS STRONGER THAN THE NAM SOLUTION AND WEAKER
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WED AND THU. WE FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE
THERE IS NOW A STRONG FEATURE IN THE WESTERN SEA OF OKHOTSK THAT
IS MOVING NORTH AND FEEDING ENERGY INTO THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ202-AKZ213-AKZ215-AKZ218.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ206.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ240.
&&

$$

JB JAN 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 270050
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
350 PM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. THE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS DECREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

A COLD CORE 490 DM LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF BARTER
ISLAND WILL MOVE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE
LOW TO UMIAT...THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ALONG WITH
THE LOW. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTH SLOPE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...A SURFACE LOW NORTH NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND WILL
COUPLED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR
WILL HELP TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH SLOPE THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY ZONES 202...203 AND 204.
THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HELP TO INCREASE WINDS THIS
EVENING IN ZONES 202...203 AND 204. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE IN ZONE 204 THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING. NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN ZONE 203 THROUGH TOMORROW LATE
TOMORROW. THE BLIZZARD WARNING IN 204 AND THE WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR 203 LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. WE PUT OUT A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
FOR 202 UNTIL NOON TOMORROW AS THE WINDS SHOULD PICK UP A BIT THIS
EVENING AND WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD DECREASE. FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE AS SHORT
WAVE PASSES THROUGH. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR UP AND WINDS SHOULD DIE
DOWN TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WEST COAST...WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS AN OLD WEATHER FRONT
OVER THE BERING STRAIGHT COAST WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOMORROW ACROSS MOST COASTAL AREAS. THERE ARE
NO WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR THE WEST COAST ZONES AT THE MOMENT.
ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD FLIRT WITH ADVISORY
CRITERIA...THE DECREASING TREND IN WINDS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES RESULTED IN A DECISION NOT TO ISSUE ANY WIND CHILL
PRODUCTS.

INTERIOR...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON WERE OBSERVED IN
MAY LOCATIONS TODAY. CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOMORROW. WARMER AIR ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SLOW WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK. WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COME FIRST TO THE HILLS...WITH THE FLATS
AND VALLEY BOTTOMS TAKING A BIT LONGER TO WARM UP.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ202-AKZ218.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ206.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

RM JAN 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 270050
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
350 PM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. THE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS DECREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

A COLD CORE 490 DM LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF BARTER
ISLAND WILL MOVE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE
LOW TO UMIAT...THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ALONG WITH
THE LOW. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTH SLOPE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...A SURFACE LOW NORTH NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND WILL
COUPLED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR
WILL HELP TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH SLOPE THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY ZONES 202...203 AND 204.
THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HELP TO INCREASE WINDS THIS
EVENING IN ZONES 202...203 AND 204. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE IN ZONE 204 THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING. NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN ZONE 203 THROUGH TOMORROW LATE
TOMORROW. THE BLIZZARD WARNING IN 204 AND THE WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR 203 LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. WE PUT OUT A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
FOR 202 UNTIL NOON TOMORROW AS THE WINDS SHOULD PICK UP A BIT THIS
EVENING AND WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD DECREASE. FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE AS SHORT
WAVE PASSES THROUGH. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR UP AND WINDS SHOULD DIE
DOWN TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WEST COAST...WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS AN OLD WEATHER FRONT
OVER THE BERING STRAIGHT COAST WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOMORROW ACROSS MOST COASTAL AREAS. THERE ARE
NO WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR THE WEST COAST ZONES AT THE MOMENT.
ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD FLIRT WITH ADVISORY
CRITERIA...THE DECREASING TREND IN WINDS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES RESULTED IN A DECISION NOT TO ISSUE ANY WIND CHILL
PRODUCTS.

INTERIOR...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON WERE OBSERVED IN
MAY LOCATIONS TODAY. CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOMORROW. WARMER AIR ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SLOW WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK. WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COME FIRST TO THE HILLS...WITH THE FLATS
AND VALLEY BOTTOMS TAKING A BIT LONGER TO WARM UP.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ202-AKZ218.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ206.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

RM JAN 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 261241
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
341 AM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH NOW IS STRETCHING FROM THE BEAUFORT SOUTH OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THIS TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BERING
SEA WED AND OVER NORTHERN ALASKA LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MEANS THAT
CLEAR AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED WITH
GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

A 490 DM LOW AT 500 MB THAT IS LOCATED 250 NM NORTH OF DEADHORSE
IS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH A VERY COLD CORE. THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE TO 100 NM NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND BY 3PM MON...AND TO 200 NM
EAST OF DEMARCATION POINT BY 3AM TUE..THEN CONTINUE MOVING EAST.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AND FLURRIES NEAR THIS FEATURE.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTH FROM THE LOW ALOFT TO BARTER
ISLAND TO TOK WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ALCAN BORDER THIS MORNING.
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL CLEAR WEST OF
THE TROUGH.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE LOW WEST WILL MOVE
TO 100 NM NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND TO UMIAT BY 3PM MON...AND TO
INUVIK TO BETTLES BY 3AM TUE. THERE WILL BE BROKEN LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ASSOCIATE WITH THIS TROUGH. WILL ALSO SEE WEST
WINDS 20-30 KT WITH THE TROUGH WITH STRONGEST GUSTS IN ZONE 204
AS THE TROUGH MOVES PAST. WILL SEE LOTS OF BLOWING SNOW AND LOW
VISIBILITY IN ZONE 204 WITH THE TROUGH. MAY SEE STRONG N GUSTS
OVER THE BROOKS RANGE MON NIGHT AND TUE AS THE TROUGH MOVES PAST.
WILL SEE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OVER THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE NORTH
OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT AND TUE BUT DECREASING TUE NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -20C TO -30C WITH THE COLDEST
OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. LITTLE CHANGE TODAY OTHER THAN A
DECREASE OF 2-4C OVER THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE. WILL SEE INCREASE
OF 2-4C ENTIRE AREA TUE BUT EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE AT SURFACE

SURFACE...
A 1010 MB LOW 250 NM NORTH OF DEADHORSE WILL MOVE TO 100 NM NORTH
OF BARTER ISLAND BY 3PM MON AS A 1014 MB LOW...AND TO 200 NM EAST
OF DEMARCATION POINT BY 3AM TUE AS A 1018 MB LOW..THEN CONTINUE
MOVING EAST. A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST OF ALASKA WILL BUILD OVER THE ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TUE.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE NORTH SLOPE WED. EAST WINDS
20-30 KT OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO
45KT AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN BLOWING SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT AS
THE LOW MOVES PAST. WIND WILL DECREASE TUE AND CLOUDS WILL START
TO DECREASE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

INTERIOR VALLEY TEMPERATURE ARE IN THE 30S TO 50S BELOW NOW UNDER
THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL REMAIN THAT COLD INTO WED. WILL SEE
HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE BRIEFLY BY ABOUT 10F DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WILL SE ICE FOG NEAR ANY SETTLEMENTS.

A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST BERING SEA TODAY AND THEN WEAKEN IN PLACE THROUGH TUE.
THIS WILL INCREASE NE WINDS OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH MID WEEK THEN START TO
DIVERGE WITH LARGE DIFFERENCE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

ALL MODELS SHOWING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW OVER THE ARCTIC SLOPE
TODAY THROUGH TUE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE
BEAUFORT SEA FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC. POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLOUDS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE ARE VERY THIN AND WISPY. SINCE THE AIR MASS IN COLDER
THAN -30C ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURES EXPECT NORTHING MORE THAN
BROKEN CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ202-AKZ218.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ206.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ240.
&&

$$

JB JAN 15





000
FXAK69 PAFG 261241
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
341 AM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH NOW IS STRETCHING FROM THE BEAUFORT SOUTH OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THIS TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BERING
SEA WED AND OVER NORTHERN ALASKA LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MEANS THAT
CLEAR AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED WITH
GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

A 490 DM LOW AT 500 MB THAT IS LOCATED 250 NM NORTH OF DEADHORSE
IS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH A VERY COLD CORE. THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE TO 100 NM NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND BY 3PM MON...AND TO 200 NM
EAST OF DEMARCATION POINT BY 3AM TUE..THEN CONTINUE MOVING EAST.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AND FLURRIES NEAR THIS FEATURE.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTH FROM THE LOW ALOFT TO BARTER
ISLAND TO TOK WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ALCAN BORDER THIS MORNING.
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL CLEAR WEST OF
THE TROUGH.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE LOW WEST WILL MOVE
TO 100 NM NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND TO UMIAT BY 3PM MON...AND TO
INUVIK TO BETTLES BY 3AM TUE. THERE WILL BE BROKEN LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ASSOCIATE WITH THIS TROUGH. WILL ALSO SEE WEST
WINDS 20-30 KT WITH THE TROUGH WITH STRONGEST GUSTS IN ZONE 204
AS THE TROUGH MOVES PAST. WILL SEE LOTS OF BLOWING SNOW AND LOW
VISIBILITY IN ZONE 204 WITH THE TROUGH. MAY SEE STRONG N GUSTS
OVER THE BROOKS RANGE MON NIGHT AND TUE AS THE TROUGH MOVES PAST.
WILL SEE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OVER THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE NORTH
OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT AND TUE BUT DECREASING TUE NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -20C TO -30C WITH THE COLDEST
OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. LITTLE CHANGE TODAY OTHER THAN A
DECREASE OF 2-4C OVER THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE. WILL SEE INCREASE
OF 2-4C ENTIRE AREA TUE BUT EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE AT SURFACE

SURFACE...
A 1010 MB LOW 250 NM NORTH OF DEADHORSE WILL MOVE TO 100 NM NORTH
OF BARTER ISLAND BY 3PM MON AS A 1014 MB LOW...AND TO 200 NM EAST
OF DEMARCATION POINT BY 3AM TUE AS A 1018 MB LOW..THEN CONTINUE
MOVING EAST. A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST OF ALASKA WILL BUILD OVER THE ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TUE.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE NORTH SLOPE WED. EAST WINDS
20-30 KT OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO
45KT AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN BLOWING SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT AS
THE LOW MOVES PAST. WIND WILL DECREASE TUE AND CLOUDS WILL START
TO DECREASE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

INTERIOR VALLEY TEMPERATURE ARE IN THE 30S TO 50S BELOW NOW UNDER
THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL REMAIN THAT COLD INTO WED. WILL SEE
HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE BRIEFLY BY ABOUT 10F DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WILL SE ICE FOG NEAR ANY SETTLEMENTS.

A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST BERING SEA TODAY AND THEN WEAKEN IN PLACE THROUGH TUE.
THIS WILL INCREASE NE WINDS OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH MID WEEK THEN START TO
DIVERGE WITH LARGE DIFFERENCE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

ALL MODELS SHOWING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW OVER THE ARCTIC SLOPE
TODAY THROUGH TUE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE
BEAUFORT SEA FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC. POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLOUDS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE ARE VERY THIN AND WISPY. SINCE THE AIR MASS IN COLDER
THAN -30C ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURES EXPECT NORTHING MORE THAN
BROKEN CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ202-AKZ218.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ206.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ240.
&&

$$

JB JAN 15




000
FXAK69 PAFG 252319
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
219 PM AKST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AND INTO THE
LONG TERM. PREFERRED THE GFS BASED ON VERIFICATION ON THE 18Z
ANALYSIS. FORECAST PACKAGE BASED IN LARGE PART ON A BLEND OF OF
INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE 12Z GFS.

ALOFT...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER PRUDHOE BAY SOUTH TO
JUST WEST OF FAIRBANKS AND SOUTHWARD OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING
SOUTH OUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL BE LOCATED 200 NM NORTH OF
PRUDHOE BAY MONDAY MORNING AND OVER DEMARCATION POINT MONDAY
EVENING. A STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR BLIZZARD AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
OVER THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES EAST INTO THE CANADIAN HIGH ARCTIC TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA.

ON THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER THE WEST
COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S BELOW TO PRODUCE A
FEW 50 BELOW READINGS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN INTERIOR. EXPECT STRATUS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR TO DISSIPATE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TO
PLUMMET TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO REMAIN COLD THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
GRADIENT OVER THE WEST COAST HAS RELAXED SOME AND AS THE WINDS
HAVE DECREASED THE WIND CHILLS VALUES HAVE IMPROVED. WINDS REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH COMBINED WITH VERY COLD AIRMASS THROUGH THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE PASSES TO WARRANT WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE.

FOCUS REMAINS ON THE THE NORTH SLOPE WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE WILL
PRODUCE BLIZZARD AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
WARNING LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENED
BRIEFLY TODAY OVER THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE CREATING BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS NEAR POINT THOMPSON. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED
TEMPORARILY...HOWEVER AS WINDS INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO INCREASE MONDAY EXPECT BLIZZARD AND NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS FOR THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ202-AKZ213-AKZ218.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ206.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.
&&

$$

CCC JAN 15





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