000
FXAK69 PAFG 181933
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1133 AM AKDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST ALASKA
INTERIOR WILL GRADUALLY MORPH INTO TO A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST TO THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A MAINLY
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ALOFT OVER AREAS SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE.
THIS WILL END THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND BRING IN SOME LITTLE
MOISTURE...CREATING AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND BROOKS
RANGE THURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST THIS PATTERN
COULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST A WEEK TO 10 DAYS.
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST INLAND AREAS
THROUGH THURSDAY. RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY
OCCUR AT SOME LOCATIONS.
.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER MOST INLAND AREAS CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR AND BROOKS RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF AKZ212-AKZ215-AKZ216 AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THESE AREAS. THIS IS CONNECTED
WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTER GRADUALLY MOVING AROUND THE PERIMETER OF
THE STRONG UPPER HIGH. THIS MORNING THE LOW CENTER IS LOCATED OVER
THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLE...BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW CENTER IS PROGGED
TO BE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY COAST WITH THE TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWARD. DEVELOPING THERMAL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
WILL CAUSE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...NONE.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
`RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-
AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-
AKZ226-AKZ227.
&&
$$
RF JUN 13
000
FXAK69 PAFG 181128
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
328 AM AKDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN SOME
DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST ON WED. BUT
REGARDLESS...ALL OF THE MODELS CAN ONLY SPEAK THE WORD...HOT...FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL OF THE MODELS DO SHOW THE RIDGE BRAKING DOWN
TEMPORARILY BUT THE ECMWF BREAKS IT DOWN LATER ON FRIDAY WHILE THE
GFS BREAKS IT DOWN ON SUNDAY.
RECORD BREAKING HEAT ONCE AGAIN WILL BE LIKELY AT MCGRATH AND
OTHER WESTERN LOCATIONS ON TUE. MODELS ATTEMPT TO COOL IT A LITTLE
BIT IN THE WEST FROM ABOUT MCGRATH SOUTHWARD ON WED AND THU BUT
THE HEAT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF MCGRATH. SIMILARLY...THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN INTERIOR WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S FOR WED AND THU AS WELL.
THE KEY TO THE HEAT ON THE NORTH SLOPE IS WHETHER THEIR WILL BE A
SEA BREEZE OR NOT. PRESENTLY..THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A
GRADIENT WIND TO KEEP THE WINDS AROUND PARALLEL TO SHORE SO TEMPS
WILL BE WARM BUT NOT RECORD BREAKING.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WE WARM AGAIN ON THE SEWARD PENINSULA.
THE MODELS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY EXCITED ABOUT MUCH CONVECTION
TODAY BUT INCREASE THE INSTABILITY OVER THE Y-K DELTA REGION ON WED
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXTREME FIRE HAZARD FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR OF
ALASKA. VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK. MODELS DIFFER BY END OF THE WEEK IN TERMS OF WHEN THE HOT
AND DRY WEATHER WILL BREAK DOWN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...NONE.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-
AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-
AKZ226-AKZ227.
&&
$$
CF JUN 13
000
FXAK69 PAFG 171947
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1147 AM AKDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH END OF THE WEEK WITH A 575 TO 585
DM BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. MINOR
HEIGHT FALLS IN EASTERN ALASKA AS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTH AND WEST AND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES TO THE NORTHWEST.
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HEAT ON TAP FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA
THROUGH MID WEEK AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR ON SUNDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL IMPROVE MINIMUM RH VALUES
HOWEVER THAT WILL BE OFFSET BY THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING CAUSED
FIRES.
RELATIVE MEASURES OF PREDICTABILITY ARE HIGH AND CONTINUE TO BE
HIGH WHICH LEADS TO A HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO 15 PERCENT IN MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. RED FLAG WARNINGS HOISTED FOR MOST ALL ZONES OF
NORTHERN ALASKA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...NONE
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-
AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-
AKZ226-AKZ227.
&&
$$
CCC JUN 13
000
FXAK69 PAFG 171304
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
504 AM AKDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS AND NEARLY IN LOCK
STEP WITH THE UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. UPPER HIGH CENTERED
NEAR RUBY WILL MOVE TO NEAR AMBLER BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH 500H ONLY
SLIGHTLY FALLING BUT NOT TRANSLATING TO ANY COOLING AT THE
SURFACE. THE EXTREME HEAT APPEARS TO BE IN NORTHERN ALASKA FOR
SOME TIME WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL BREAK BEGINNING ON FRI AND
LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EASTERN INTERIOR DOES NOT SHARE
IN THAT REPRIEVE THOUGH AS THE HEAT REMAINS ALONG THE BORDER AND
EASTWARD.
A SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTH FOR THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO SOMEWHERE IN
THE BERING SEA WITH A FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF NORTHERN ALASKA ON FRI. THIS IS THE FIRST SIGN OF ANY
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION AND COOLING OVER NORTHERN ALASKA THIS
COMING WEEK. THE MODELS ADVERTISE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE
NORTH BY SUN AS WELL TO CONTINUE TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXTREMELY HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. NO PRECIPITATION IS IN STORE UNTIL AT
LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MOST ALL OF THE FIRE WEATHER ZONES IN NORTHERN ALASKA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...NONE.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-
AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-
AKZ226-AKZ227.
&&
$$
CF JUN 13
000
FXAK69 PAFG 162055
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1255 PM AKDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 90 HOURS ON THE POSITIONING
OF THE RIDGE. ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE PROBLEMS IN THE MID AND
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH TEMPERATURES...AS IT TRIES TO FORCE THEM TO
BE COLDER THAN THE PATTERN SUGGESTS.
ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...OMEGA BLOCK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK. 584 DAM CLOSED HIGH IS CENTERED OVER DENALI TODAY AND WILL
DRIFT NORTHWEST THIS EVENING OVER RUBY...THEN NORTH OVER HUSLIA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A 585 DAM CLOSED HIGH. THE HIGH THEN DRIFTS
NORTHWEST OVER HOWARD PASS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
TURNING NORTHEAST AND WORKING OVER THE ARCTIC BEFORE BEING
ABSORBED BY THE RIDGE OVER CANADA. 546 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE
BERING SEA REMAINS QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN MOVES
NORTHWEST.
SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TO AROUND TANANA THEN TURNS SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
TANANA VALLEY. DEWPOINTS ARE UP A LITTLE TODAY...BUT DRIER
CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BEFORE THE RIDGE GETS NORTH OF THE
BROOKS RANGE AND MOISTURE STARTS FLOWING UP THE BACK SIDE OR THE
RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...PRETTY QUIET AS STRONG CAP IN PLACE MOST
AREAS AND A LACK OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THE CONVECTION TO LIFT.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON THE FRINGES OF THE RIDGE THIS EVENING IN
THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT ONLY A FEW SHOWERS.
ARCTIC COAST...SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE ARCTIC WILL BRING
DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
TODAY THEN CLEARING TOMORROW WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WEST COAST...CLEARING...WARMING AND DRYING TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK. ONCE THE RIDGE STARTS MOVING EAST EXPECT THE MOISTURE
TO FLOW UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS AS WAVES OF ENERGY ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE INLAND AREAS SO RED FLAGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE WEST COAST. POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST INTERIOR MID WEEK.
INTERIOR...HOT AND DRY WILL CONTINUE...MOSTLY LIKELY THROUGH THE
WEEK BEFORE THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN AND A MORE DYNAMIC
PATTERN SETS UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ADDING A FEW MORE RED FLAGS IN THE WEST TODAY AS
THE RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO PICK UP LATER IN THE WEEK AS BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS
DOWN. POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRY THUNDERSTORMS MID WEEK IN SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR. RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY AT NIGHT WILL BE POOR TO VERY
POOR IN MANY AREAS. HAVE STARTED FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS FOR NORTH
SLOPE ZONE AKZ205 AND AKZ206...WITH THE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE
AREA THE INTER COASTAL PLAIN WILL BE VERY DRY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...EXTREMELY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT OVER THE ALASKA AND BROOKS RANGES THAT MAY
CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE UNEXPECTEDLY.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-
AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-
AKZ226-AKZ227.
&&
$$
SDB JUN 13
000
FXAK69 PAFG 161149 AAA
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
349 AM AKDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. SOME DIFFERENCES IN
POSITION IN MOVING THE SHORT WAVE AROUND AND DOWN THE SIDE OF THE
RIDGE. CURRENTLY...EXTREMELY STRONG HIGH ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH AND EVEN STRENGTHEN A BIT AS WELL.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER HIGH WILL BE LOCATED NEAR RUBY AT 585
DM WITH EXTREMELY WARM AIR UNDER THE HIGH WITH THE COMPRESSION OF
THE AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY HOT OVER ALL OF
NORTHERN ALASKA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COASTAL AREAS ON SUN. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE SLIDES DOWN THE RIDGE EAST OF THE ALCAN
BORDER THERE WILL BE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER LATE TONIGHT
AND MON BEFORE THE TEMPERATURES REBOUND SIGNIFICANTLY ON TUE.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER HIGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL VERY GRADUALLY
BEGINNING MON NIGHT...THIS DOES NOT TRANSLATE INTO COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE INTERIOR THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEK...IF NOT
LONGER. THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE NORTHERN ALASKA COOLING DOWN A LITTLE
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK THOUGH.
MODELS SUGGEST INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR ON
MONDAY...BUT APPEARS TO BE CAPPED AT THIS POINT.
THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT PUT IN FORECASTS...THE
POSSIBILITY OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS DOES EXIST ON TUE.
NOT MUCH OF ANY PRECIPITATION IN STORE FOR NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH
THIS WEEK AFTER TODAY. PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
TO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE WITH THE PASSING OF THE
SHORT WAVE ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...TEMPERATURES ARE SOARING AND RH VALUES ARE DRYING
OUT OVER ALL OF INTERIOR OF ALASKA. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE WELL
BELOW 30 PERCENT AND MANY AREAS NEAR 15 PERCENT THROUGH THIS WEEK.
FIRE CLEARLY SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN ZONE 152 WITH PLUME
TRAILING NORTHWARD WILL PICK UP AGAIN TODAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...EXTREMELY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT OVER THE ALASKA AND BROOKS RANGES THAT MAY
CAUSE RIVER TO RISE.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-
AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.
&&
$$
CF JUN 13
000
FXAK69 PAFG 161029
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
229 AM AKDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. SOME DIFFERENCES IN
POSITION IN MOVING THE SHORT WAVE AROUND AND DOWN THE SIDE OF THE
RIDGE. CURRENTLY...EXTREMELY STRONG HIGH ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH AND EVEN STRENGTHEN A BIT AS WELL.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER HIGH WILL BE LOCATED NEAR RUBY AT 585
DM WITH EXTREMELY WARM AIR UNDER THE HIGH WITH THE COMPRESSION OF
THE AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY HOT OVER ALL OF
NORTHERN ALASKA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COASTAL AREAS ON SUN. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE SLIDES DOWN THE RIDGE EAST OF THE ALCAN
BORDER THERE WILL BE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER LATE TONIGHT
AND MON BEFORE THE TEMPERATURES REBOUND SIGNIFICANTLY ON TUE.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER HIGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL VERY GRADUALLY
BEGINNING MON NIGHT...THIS DOES NOT TRANSLATE INTO COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE INTERIOR THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEK...IF NOT
LONGER. THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE NORTHERN ALASKA COOLING DOWN A LITTLE
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK THOUGH.
NOT MUCH OF ANY PRECIPITATION IN STORE FOR NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH
THIS WEEK AFTER TODAY. PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
TO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE WITH THE PASSING OF THE
SHORT WAVE ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-
AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.
&&
$$
CF JUN 13
| 
