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000
FXAK67 PAJK 032346
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
346 PM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD N OVER THE ERN GULF AND SE AK
THRU SAT. WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE N INTO THE CENTRAL GULF SAT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR ERN GULF AND SE
AK THRU SAT. MODELS WERE GENERALLY CLOSE ON THE MAIN FEATURES THAT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA...AND ENDED UP DOING A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM
WITH PREVIOUS GRIDS FOR TONIGHT AND SAT.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE CLOUD COVER...WINDS...AND TEMPS.
WITH RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE AREA...LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS WILL TRAP
SOME LOW CLOUDS UNDER IT OR IF SOME DRIER AIR WILL MINIMIZE THIS.
THINK THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOWER CLOUDS TO REMAIN OR DEVELOP
TONIGHT IS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NRN COAST INTO THE CENTRAL INNER
CHANNELS. THINK SOME OF THIS WILL BE FOG AS WELL...SO INCLUDED
PATCHY FOG FOR MAINLY THE N-CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS FOR LATE
TONIGHT. MAY SEE A THIN BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG THE
S-CENTRAL COAST MTNS LATE TONIGHT THAT AFFECTS PAPG AND POSSIBLY
PAWG. AM EXPECTING THE LOWER CLOUDS TO THIN OUT AND GENERALLY
DISSIPATE DURING SAT AS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL DRYING OCCURS. HIGHER
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN MAINLY TO THE OUTER COAST SAT AHEAD OF WEAK
OCCLUDED FRONT. THINK ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT WILL STAY OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF THRU SAT.

WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIE DOWN TONIGHT ON THE INNER CHANNELS UNDER
THE SFC RIDGE. STILL...20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT
OVER LYNN CANAL AND UP TO 20 KT FOR THE FAR SRN INNER CHANNELS. ON
SAT...WINDS WILL PICK UP AS DIURNAL PROCESSES BEGIN TO DOMINATE
WITH MANY AREAS HAVING LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. NRN
LYNN CANAL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PICK UP TO 20-25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON
SAT AS WELL. OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...WINDS AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 20 KT...WITH A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND
BEHIND THE FRONT.

TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND QUITE A BIT SAT WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. 925 MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 13-16C FOR MOST
INNER CHANNEL AREAS...WITH 18-20C FOR THE HYDER AREA. THIS WOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE N AND
CENTRAL AREAS...AND THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER THE S...WITH
HYDER THE MOST LIKELY SPOT TO REACH THE LOWER 80S. THE OUTER COAST
WILL ALSO BE WARMER SAT BUT ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS
WILL GENERALLY KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL
BE THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURE FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL THEN FLATTEN AND SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO
SPEED UP RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER TO THE SECOND HALF
OF TUESDAY. THIS IS A BIT OF A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS
WHEN IT WAS THOUGHT THE PATTERN CHANGE WOULD OCCUR MORE TOWARDS
THE LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST DAY
OCCURRING ON MONDAY AS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THIS COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 15 TO 18C
RANGE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD 70S ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
INLAND LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY REACH
THE 80 DEGREE MARK. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE FLATTENS AND IS PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THERE WILL BE
ANY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM THAT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE NORMAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND
LIGHTER WINDS AT NIGHT.

CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM/ECMWF FOR UPDATES TO THE
EXTENDED RANGE. FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 8 UTILIZED THE LATEST WPC
GUIDANCE. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE IN A GENERAL
TRANSITION TO MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN BY MID WEEK BUT
DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED OVER THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...WATCHING MENDENHALL LAKE YET AGAIN AS IT HAS BEEN
RISING STEADILY FOR THE PAST 24 HRS OR SO. COORDINATED WITH RFC
ABOUT THIS...AND THEY SUSPECT IT IS ANOTHER GLACIAL DAMMED LAKE
RELEASE AS THE PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA WOULD NOT HAVE
JUSTIFIED THE AMOUNT OF RISE THAT HAS OCCURRED. THE LAKE LEVEL WAS
AT 7.4 FEET AS OF 2215Z...AND IS FORECAST TO PEAK NEAR 8 FEET
THIS EVENING THEN DROP RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SAT. THIS IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE RELEASE LAST WEEKEND...BUT STILL BELOW
FLOOD LEVELS BY AROUND 1 FOOT. IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY BY LATER SHIFTS FOR POSSIBLE HYDRO STATEMENT OR SPS
ISSUANCE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

&&

$$

RWT/TPS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 032346
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
346 PM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD N OVER THE ERN GULF AND SE AK
THRU SAT. WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE N INTO THE CENTRAL GULF SAT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR ERN GULF AND SE
AK THRU SAT. MODELS WERE GENERALLY CLOSE ON THE MAIN FEATURES THAT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA...AND ENDED UP DOING A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM
WITH PREVIOUS GRIDS FOR TONIGHT AND SAT.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE CLOUD COVER...WINDS...AND TEMPS.
WITH RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE AREA...LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS WILL TRAP
SOME LOW CLOUDS UNDER IT OR IF SOME DRIER AIR WILL MINIMIZE THIS.
THINK THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOWER CLOUDS TO REMAIN OR DEVELOP
TONIGHT IS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NRN COAST INTO THE CENTRAL INNER
CHANNELS. THINK SOME OF THIS WILL BE FOG AS WELL...SO INCLUDED
PATCHY FOG FOR MAINLY THE N-CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS FOR LATE
TONIGHT. MAY SEE A THIN BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG THE
S-CENTRAL COAST MTNS LATE TONIGHT THAT AFFECTS PAPG AND POSSIBLY
PAWG. AM EXPECTING THE LOWER CLOUDS TO THIN OUT AND GENERALLY
DISSIPATE DURING SAT AS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL DRYING OCCURS. HIGHER
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN MAINLY TO THE OUTER COAST SAT AHEAD OF WEAK
OCCLUDED FRONT. THINK ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT WILL STAY OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF THRU SAT.

WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIE DOWN TONIGHT ON THE INNER CHANNELS UNDER
THE SFC RIDGE. STILL...20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT
OVER LYNN CANAL AND UP TO 20 KT FOR THE FAR SRN INNER CHANNELS. ON
SAT...WINDS WILL PICK UP AS DIURNAL PROCESSES BEGIN TO DOMINATE
WITH MANY AREAS HAVING LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. NRN
LYNN CANAL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PICK UP TO 20-25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON
SAT AS WELL. OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...WINDS AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 20 KT...WITH A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND
BEHIND THE FRONT.

TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND QUITE A BIT SAT WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. 925 MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 13-16C FOR MOST
INNER CHANNEL AREAS...WITH 18-20C FOR THE HYDER AREA. THIS WOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE N AND
CENTRAL AREAS...AND THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER THE S...WITH
HYDER THE MOST LIKELY SPOT TO REACH THE LOWER 80S. THE OUTER COAST
WILL ALSO BE WARMER SAT BUT ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS
WILL GENERALLY KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL
BE THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURE FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL THEN FLATTEN AND SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO
SPEED UP RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER TO THE SECOND HALF
OF TUESDAY. THIS IS A BIT OF A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS
WHEN IT WAS THOUGHT THE PATTERN CHANGE WOULD OCCUR MORE TOWARDS
THE LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST DAY
OCCURRING ON MONDAY AS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THIS COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 15 TO 18C
RANGE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD 70S ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
INLAND LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY REACH
THE 80 DEGREE MARK. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE FLATTENS AND IS PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THERE WILL BE
ANY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM THAT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE NORMAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND
LIGHTER WINDS AT NIGHT.

CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM/ECMWF FOR UPDATES TO THE
EXTENDED RANGE. FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 8 UTILIZED THE LATEST WPC
GUIDANCE. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE IN A GENERAL
TRANSITION TO MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN BY MID WEEK BUT
DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED OVER THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...WATCHING MENDENHALL LAKE YET AGAIN AS IT HAS BEEN
RISING STEADILY FOR THE PAST 24 HRS OR SO. COORDINATED WITH RFC
ABOUT THIS...AND THEY SUSPECT IT IS ANOTHER GLACIAL DAMMED LAKE
RELEASE AS THE PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA WOULD NOT HAVE
JUSTIFIED THE AMOUNT OF RISE THAT HAS OCCURRED. THE LAKE LEVEL WAS
AT 7.4 FEET AS OF 2215Z...AND IS FORECAST TO PEAK NEAR 8 FEET
THIS EVENING THEN DROP RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SAT. THIS IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE RELEASE LAST WEEKEND...BUT STILL BELOW
FLOOD LEVELS BY AROUND 1 FOOT. IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY BY LATER SHIFTS FOR POSSIBLE HYDRO STATEMENT OR SPS
ISSUANCE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

&&

$$

RWT/TPS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK67 PAJK 031226
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
426 AM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AK GULF
AND EXTEND OVER THE PANHANDLE WITH REMNANTS OF PREVIOUS DAYS LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE YUKON. SOME LINGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE FROM LAST BANDS
MOVING AROUND THE YUKON LOW WITH 500 MB VORT MAX CROSSING OVER THE
AREA. WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAY KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER FROM AK
GULF MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE BUT EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES WITH
SUBSIDENCE ON LEE SIDE OF RIDGE. HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG IN OVER THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE FROM OVERNIGHT PRECIP
AND POTENTIAL CLEARING SKIES. KEPT FOG OUT OF THE SOUTHERN REGIONS
AS THEY HAVE HAD A LONGER TIME TO DRY OUT. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 20 KT THIS MORNING AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS INTO FRI NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS N LYNN CANAL
WITH STRONGER GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GULF/PANHANDLE RIDGE AND THE
YUKON HIGH PRODUCING SMALL CRAFT WINDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE THE GRADIENT COLLAPSES. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL GET INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S TODAY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THE AREA
RECEIVES, WARMEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. RIVER LEVELS THAT
ROSE IN RESPONSE TO YESTERDAYS RAINFALL HAVE CRESTED AND ARE
QUICKLY DROPPING.

MODELS STILL IN FAIR AGREEMENT. UPDATED WINDS WITH A BLEND OF
NAM/ECMWF. OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE TO INHERITED GRIDS. MAIN ISSUE
WITH WINDS WAS DETERMINING IF DIRECTIONS WOULD BE MORE FROM THE
GEOSTROPHIC FLOW AROUND THE GULF RIDGE OR MORE FORCED BY THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE DUE TO
GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT WITH ANY UNCERTAINTY LIMITED
TO LOW IMPACT FIELDS.

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF AND
PANHANDLE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
GULF AND PANHANDLE WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND TO
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF FOR THEIR GOOD
CONSENSUS. A PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN BY MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW NEAR ALASKA
PENINSULA PUSHES A TROUGH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF...THEN THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GULF...THEN POSSIBLY TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY. MODEL
DIFFERENCES BECOME LARGER AND USED THE WPC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR
NEXT WEEK TO DRAW PREDICTABLE FEATURES FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

&&

$$

PRB/AHN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU










000
FXAK67 PAJK 031226
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
426 AM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AK GULF
AND EXTEND OVER THE PANHANDLE WITH REMNANTS OF PREVIOUS DAYS LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE YUKON. SOME LINGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE FROM LAST BANDS
MOVING AROUND THE YUKON LOW WITH 500 MB VORT MAX CROSSING OVER THE
AREA. WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAY KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER FROM AK
GULF MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE BUT EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES WITH
SUBSIDENCE ON LEE SIDE OF RIDGE. HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG IN OVER THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE FROM OVERNIGHT PRECIP
AND POTENTIAL CLEARING SKIES. KEPT FOG OUT OF THE SOUTHERN REGIONS
AS THEY HAVE HAD A LONGER TIME TO DRY OUT. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 20 KT THIS MORNING AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS INTO FRI NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS N LYNN CANAL
WITH STRONGER GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GULF/PANHANDLE RIDGE AND THE
YUKON HIGH PRODUCING SMALL CRAFT WINDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE THE GRADIENT COLLAPSES. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL GET INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S TODAY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THE AREA
RECEIVES, WARMEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. RIVER LEVELS THAT
ROSE IN RESPONSE TO YESTERDAYS RAINFALL HAVE CRESTED AND ARE
QUICKLY DROPPING.

MODELS STILL IN FAIR AGREEMENT. UPDATED WINDS WITH A BLEND OF
NAM/ECMWF. OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE TO INHERITED GRIDS. MAIN ISSUE
WITH WINDS WAS DETERMINING IF DIRECTIONS WOULD BE MORE FROM THE
GEOSTROPHIC FLOW AROUND THE GULF RIDGE OR MORE FORCED BY THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE DUE TO
GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT WITH ANY UNCERTAINTY LIMITED
TO LOW IMPACT FIELDS.

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF AND
PANHANDLE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
GULF AND PANHANDLE WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND TO
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF FOR THEIR GOOD
CONSENSUS. A PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN BY MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW NEAR ALASKA
PENINSULA PUSHES A TROUGH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF...THEN THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GULF...THEN POSSIBLY TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY. MODEL
DIFFERENCES BECOME LARGER AND USED THE WPC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR
NEXT WEEK TO DRAW PREDICTABLE FEATURES FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

&&

$$

PRB/AHN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 031226
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
426 AM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AK GULF
AND EXTEND OVER THE PANHANDLE WITH REMNANTS OF PREVIOUS DAYS LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE YUKON. SOME LINGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE FROM LAST BANDS
MOVING AROUND THE YUKON LOW WITH 500 MB VORT MAX CROSSING OVER THE
AREA. WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAY KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER FROM AK
GULF MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE BUT EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES WITH
SUBSIDENCE ON LEE SIDE OF RIDGE. HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG IN OVER THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE FROM OVERNIGHT PRECIP
AND POTENTIAL CLEARING SKIES. KEPT FOG OUT OF THE SOUTHERN REGIONS
AS THEY HAVE HAD A LONGER TIME TO DRY OUT. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 20 KT THIS MORNING AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS INTO FRI NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS N LYNN CANAL
WITH STRONGER GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GULF/PANHANDLE RIDGE AND THE
YUKON HIGH PRODUCING SMALL CRAFT WINDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE THE GRADIENT COLLAPSES. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL GET INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S TODAY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THE AREA
RECEIVES, WARMEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. RIVER LEVELS THAT
ROSE IN RESPONSE TO YESTERDAYS RAINFALL HAVE CRESTED AND ARE
QUICKLY DROPPING.

MODELS STILL IN FAIR AGREEMENT. UPDATED WINDS WITH A BLEND OF
NAM/ECMWF. OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE TO INHERITED GRIDS. MAIN ISSUE
WITH WINDS WAS DETERMINING IF DIRECTIONS WOULD BE MORE FROM THE
GEOSTROPHIC FLOW AROUND THE GULF RIDGE OR MORE FORCED BY THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE DUE TO
GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT WITH ANY UNCERTAINTY LIMITED
TO LOW IMPACT FIELDS.

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF AND
PANHANDLE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
GULF AND PANHANDLE WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND TO
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF FOR THEIR GOOD
CONSENSUS. A PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN BY MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW NEAR ALASKA
PENINSULA PUSHES A TROUGH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF...THEN THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GULF...THEN POSSIBLY TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY. MODEL
DIFFERENCES BECOME LARGER AND USED THE WPC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR
NEXT WEEK TO DRAW PREDICTABLE FEATURES FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

&&

$$

PRB/AHN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU










000
FXAK67 PAJK 031226
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
426 AM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AK GULF
AND EXTEND OVER THE PANHANDLE WITH REMNANTS OF PREVIOUS DAYS LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE YUKON. SOME LINGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE FROM LAST BANDS
MOVING AROUND THE YUKON LOW WITH 500 MB VORT MAX CROSSING OVER THE
AREA. WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAY KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER FROM AK
GULF MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE BUT EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES WITH
SUBSIDENCE ON LEE SIDE OF RIDGE. HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG IN OVER THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE FROM OVERNIGHT PRECIP
AND POTENTIAL CLEARING SKIES. KEPT FOG OUT OF THE SOUTHERN REGIONS
AS THEY HAVE HAD A LONGER TIME TO DRY OUT. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 20 KT THIS MORNING AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS INTO FRI NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS N LYNN CANAL
WITH STRONGER GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GULF/PANHANDLE RIDGE AND THE
YUKON HIGH PRODUCING SMALL CRAFT WINDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE THE GRADIENT COLLAPSES. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL GET INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S TODAY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THE AREA
RECEIVES, WARMEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. RIVER LEVELS THAT
ROSE IN RESPONSE TO YESTERDAYS RAINFALL HAVE CRESTED AND ARE
QUICKLY DROPPING.

MODELS STILL IN FAIR AGREEMENT. UPDATED WINDS WITH A BLEND OF
NAM/ECMWF. OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE TO INHERITED GRIDS. MAIN ISSUE
WITH WINDS WAS DETERMINING IF DIRECTIONS WOULD BE MORE FROM THE
GEOSTROPHIC FLOW AROUND THE GULF RIDGE OR MORE FORCED BY THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE DUE TO
GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT WITH ANY UNCERTAINTY LIMITED
TO LOW IMPACT FIELDS.

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF AND
PANHANDLE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
GULF AND PANHANDLE WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND TO
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF FOR THEIR GOOD
CONSENSUS. A PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN BY MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW NEAR ALASKA
PENINSULA PUSHES A TROUGH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF...THEN THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GULF...THEN POSSIBLY TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY. MODEL
DIFFERENCES BECOME LARGER AND USED THE WPC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR
NEXT WEEK TO DRAW PREDICTABLE FEATURES FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

&&

$$

PRB/AHN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 022340
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
340 PM AKDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND TO NORTHWEST
CANADA. THE SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA AND THE EASTERN HALF THE GULF OF ALASKA. A LARGE MULTI
CENTER COMPLEX OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
PRESENTLY BLOWING THROUGH LYNN CANAL AND INTO THE SKAGWAY REGION.
WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH AT SKAGWAY ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE
EVENING AND THEN FALL OFF TO 20 TO 30 MPH FOR THE GUSTS.

SHOWERS EARLY OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL TAPER OFF OVER NIGHT... WITH
A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING AROUND AND CONTINUING TO DIMINISH TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAIN RANGE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKY COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THROUGH FRIDAY SO A LITTLE WARMER AND MORE SUN THERE ON FRIDAY...
WHILE THE NORTHERN PART WILL HAVE TO WORK A LITTLE MORE TO DEVELOP
THE BREAKS FOR THE SUN.

THE TAKU RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AFTER THE GLACIER
DAM OUTBURST FROM LAKE NO LAKE ON WEDNESDAY. ISSUED THE FINAL
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ON THE EVENT AROUND 230 PM.

.LONG TERM...LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH MID WEEK. THEREAFTER THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN OUT AND SHIFT EAST WITH A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW BY LATE
NEXT WEEK.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OVER THE BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE GULF RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TO
BE PRODUCED BY THIS FEATURE AT THIS POINT. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 15 TO 18C RANGE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD 70S OVER THE
PANHANDLE. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME FRAME BUT
DID REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE FOR OUR INLAND LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. WITH THIS PATTERN WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THESE LOCATIONS ARE ABLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S.
PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS OUT AND SHIFTS EAST. A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY WILL PUSH INTO
THE EASTERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW...CLOUD
COVER...AND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF THROUGH DAY 4 THEN THE LATEST
WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST WERE MINIMAL AND MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCAL EFFECT
EDITS. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE IN WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 1 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-022-031>034-042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-051.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/TPS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK67 PAJK 022340
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
340 PM AKDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND TO NORTHWEST
CANADA. THE SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA AND THE EASTERN HALF THE GULF OF ALASKA. A LARGE MULTI
CENTER COMPLEX OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
PRESENTLY BLOWING THROUGH LYNN CANAL AND INTO THE SKAGWAY REGION.
WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH AT SKAGWAY ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE
EVENING AND THEN FALL OFF TO 20 TO 30 MPH FOR THE GUSTS.

SHOWERS EARLY OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL TAPER OFF OVER NIGHT... WITH
A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING AROUND AND CONTINUING TO DIMINISH TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAIN RANGE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKY COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THROUGH FRIDAY SO A LITTLE WARMER AND MORE SUN THERE ON FRIDAY...
WHILE THE NORTHERN PART WILL HAVE TO WORK A LITTLE MORE TO DEVELOP
THE BREAKS FOR THE SUN.

THE TAKU RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AFTER THE GLACIER
DAM OUTBURST FROM LAKE NO LAKE ON WEDNESDAY. ISSUED THE FINAL
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ON THE EVENT AROUND 230 PM.

.LONG TERM...LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH MID WEEK. THEREAFTER THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN OUT AND SHIFT EAST WITH A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW BY LATE
NEXT WEEK.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OVER THE BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE GULF RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TO
BE PRODUCED BY THIS FEATURE AT THIS POINT. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 15 TO 18C RANGE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD 70S OVER THE
PANHANDLE. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME FRAME BUT
DID REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE FOR OUR INLAND LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. WITH THIS PATTERN WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THESE LOCATIONS ARE ABLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S.
PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS OUT AND SHIFTS EAST. A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY WILL PUSH INTO
THE EASTERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW...CLOUD
COVER...AND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF THROUGH DAY 4 THEN THE LATEST
WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST WERE MINIMAL AND MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCAL EFFECT
EDITS. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE IN WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 1 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-022-031>034-042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-051.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/TPS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 021304
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
504 AM AKDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE GALE FORCE LOW IN THE AK GULF THAT HAS BEEN
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING AS
IT NEAR CAPE FAIRWEATHER.  THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON WEAKENING TO AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL TRACK
TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS EVENING WHILE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE.
MEANWHILE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AK
GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND START OF MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE LATE
TONIGHT AND MERGE WITH THE WEAK RIDGE THAT IS JUST ALONG THE
PANHANDLE BRITISH COLUMBIA BORDER. THIS COMBINED RIDGE WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

THE FIRST WARP AROUND THE LOW PRODUCED MODERATE RAINFALL OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE AT TIMES WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. AS COLDER UNSTABLE AIR BEHIND THE LOW
MOVES IN THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS THEN DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A CONVECTIVE CELL IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE GULF LOW PRODUCED A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE IT STARTED TO SHEAR APART.
MODELS STILL SHOWING INCREASED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE LOW THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, BUT AS OF NOW NO
STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED THERE. KEEPING WORDING OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS JUST SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE DAY AND DID BACK OFF ON THE
EASTWARD EXTENT OF THESE OVERLAND T-STORMS.

GALE FORCE WINDS PICKED UP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND HAVE MOVED INTO CROSS SOUND. THESE WINDS WILL DROP OVER
QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND.
SURFACE WINDS PICK UP OVERNIGHT AS 850 MB WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 KT
RANGE IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW CENTER PUSHED OVERLAND. WHILE THERE
WERE OCCASIONAL GUST OF 35 MPH DID NOT HAVE PROLONGED STRONG
WINDS. WINDS WILL DROP OFF THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST LOCATION
EXPECT THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE LOW MOVING INLAND WILL PRODUCE
GALES OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND STRONG WINDS FOR SKAGWAY.

SOME SLIGHT TIMING ISSUES ON THE MODELS WITH THE LOW POSITION EARLY
THIS MORNING AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH.
HOWEVER THIS DIFFERENCES WERE MAINLY ONLY 3 HOURS. DID LIKE A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND AS THE NAM STILL SEEMED A BIT FAST AND FURTHER
EAST WITH THE LOW CENTER. INHERITED PRESSURE GRIDS MATCHED A BLEND
OF NEW MODEL RUNS SO WERE LEFT MOSTLY AS IS. WINDS HAD SOME LOCAL
CHANGES, SUCH AS BUMPING UP WINDS IN HAINES A BIT. FOR POP MODELS
MAY BE HOLDING ONTO SHOWERS ACTIVITY TOO LONG BUT AS AIR MASS IS
BECOMING MORE CONVECTIVE BREAKS IN BETWEEN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOR AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN CANADA MOVES FARTHER
EAST AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF AND PANHANDLE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE GULF AND
PANHANDLE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL
EXTEND TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY. REFRESHED THE
INHERITED FORECAST THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE NAM AND
ECMWF FOR THEIR GOOD CONSENSUS. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
BUILDING...SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX BUT
SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL
THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. .

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS AN UPPER LOW NEAR ALASKA
PENINSULA PUSHES A TROUGH EAST INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF...THEN POSSIBLY TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY
THURSDAY WITH A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY. MODEL DIFFERENCES
BECOME LARGER AND USED THE WPC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEK TO
DRAW PREDICTABLE FEATURES FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WINDS. WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...WATER LEVELS ON THE TAKU RIVER ARE CONTINUING TO RISE
THIS MORNING FROM THE GLACIAL DAM RELEASE OF LAKE NO LAKE. WATER
TEMPERATURES HAVE STARTED TO LEVEL OUT WHICH MAY INDICATE THE
GLACIAL DAM RELEASED IS NEAR ENDING AND THE RIVER CLOSE TO
CRESTING. AT 5 AM THE TAKU RIVER WAS AT 41.5 FEET AND IS EXPECTED
TO CREST AT 42.8 FEET AT ABOUT 10 AM. MINOR FLOOD STAGE FOR THE
TAKU RIVER IS 43.0 FEET WITH BANKFULL LEVEL CONDITIONS AT 42.0
FEET. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF WATER
THAT WILL BE RELEASED INTO THE TAKU RIVER SO THE CREST HEIGHT AND
TIMING MAY DIFFER FROM THE FORECAST. ELSEWHERE RIVERS HAVE SHOWN
SLIGHT INCREASED DUE TO THE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT BUT NONE ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH BANKFULL.

A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED ON THIS EVENT AND
CONTAINS MORE DETAIL.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-021-022-031>035-042-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041.

&&

$$

PRB/AHN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 021304
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
504 AM AKDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE GALE FORCE LOW IN THE AK GULF THAT HAS BEEN
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING AS
IT NEAR CAPE FAIRWEATHER.  THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON WEAKENING TO AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL TRACK
TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS EVENING WHILE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE.
MEANWHILE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AK
GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND START OF MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE LATE
TONIGHT AND MERGE WITH THE WEAK RIDGE THAT IS JUST ALONG THE
PANHANDLE BRITISH COLUMBIA BORDER. THIS COMBINED RIDGE WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

THE FIRST WARP AROUND THE LOW PRODUCED MODERATE RAINFALL OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE AT TIMES WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. AS COLDER UNSTABLE AIR BEHIND THE LOW
MOVES IN THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS THEN DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A CONVECTIVE CELL IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE GULF LOW PRODUCED A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE IT STARTED TO SHEAR APART.
MODELS STILL SHOWING INCREASED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE LOW THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, BUT AS OF NOW NO
STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED THERE. KEEPING WORDING OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS JUST SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE DAY AND DID BACK OFF ON THE
EASTWARD EXTENT OF THESE OVERLAND T-STORMS.

GALE FORCE WINDS PICKED UP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND HAVE MOVED INTO CROSS SOUND. THESE WINDS WILL DROP OVER
QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND.
SURFACE WINDS PICK UP OVERNIGHT AS 850 MB WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 KT
RANGE IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW CENTER PUSHED OVERLAND. WHILE THERE
WERE OCCASIONAL GUST OF 35 MPH DID NOT HAVE PROLONGED STRONG
WINDS. WINDS WILL DROP OFF THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST LOCATION
EXPECT THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE LOW MOVING INLAND WILL PRODUCE
GALES OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND STRONG WINDS FOR SKAGWAY.

SOME SLIGHT TIMING ISSUES ON THE MODELS WITH THE LOW POSITION EARLY
THIS MORNING AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH.
HOWEVER THIS DIFFERENCES WERE MAINLY ONLY 3 HOURS. DID LIKE A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND AS THE NAM STILL SEEMED A BIT FAST AND FURTHER
EAST WITH THE LOW CENTER. INHERITED PRESSURE GRIDS MATCHED A BLEND
OF NEW MODEL RUNS SO WERE LEFT MOSTLY AS IS. WINDS HAD SOME LOCAL
CHANGES, SUCH AS BUMPING UP WINDS IN HAINES A BIT. FOR POP MODELS
MAY BE HOLDING ONTO SHOWERS ACTIVITY TOO LONG BUT AS AIR MASS IS
BECOMING MORE CONVECTIVE BREAKS IN BETWEEN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOR AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN CANADA MOVES FARTHER
EAST AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF AND PANHANDLE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE GULF AND
PANHANDLE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL
EXTEND TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY. REFRESHED THE
INHERITED FORECAST THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE NAM AND
ECMWF FOR THEIR GOOD CONSENSUS. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
BUILDING...SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX BUT
SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL
THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. .

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS AN UPPER LOW NEAR ALASKA
PENINSULA PUSHES A TROUGH EAST INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF...THEN POSSIBLY TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY
THURSDAY WITH A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY. MODEL DIFFERENCES
BECOME LARGER AND USED THE WPC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEK TO
DRAW PREDICTABLE FEATURES FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WINDS. WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...WATER LEVELS ON THE TAKU RIVER ARE CONTINUING TO RISE
THIS MORNING FROM THE GLACIAL DAM RELEASE OF LAKE NO LAKE. WATER
TEMPERATURES HAVE STARTED TO LEVEL OUT WHICH MAY INDICATE THE
GLACIAL DAM RELEASED IS NEAR ENDING AND THE RIVER CLOSE TO
CRESTING. AT 5 AM THE TAKU RIVER WAS AT 41.5 FEET AND IS EXPECTED
TO CREST AT 42.8 FEET AT ABOUT 10 AM. MINOR FLOOD STAGE FOR THE
TAKU RIVER IS 43.0 FEET WITH BANKFULL LEVEL CONDITIONS AT 42.0
FEET. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF WATER
THAT WILL BE RELEASED INTO THE TAKU RIVER SO THE CREST HEIGHT AND
TIMING MAY DIFFER FROM THE FORECAST. ELSEWHERE RIVERS HAVE SHOWN
SLIGHT INCREASED DUE TO THE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT BUT NONE ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH BANKFULL.

A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED ON THIS EVENT AND
CONTAINS MORE DETAIL.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-021-022-031>035-042-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041.

&&

$$

PRB/AHN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 020017
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
417 PM AKDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...A LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL
MOVE TO NEAR CAPE FAIRWEATHER THURSDAY AND THEN INLAND BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE GULF AND COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECT TO
RISE UP TO LOW GALE FORCE IN SOME AREAS WHICH IS A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN IS TYPICALLY SEEN DURING THE SUMMER SEASON IN SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. THE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE ARE MAIN IMPACT FOR THE MARINE
AND LAND AREA OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 2 INCHES. A
REBOUND SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SEND A BURST
OF WIND NORTH THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS. OVER THE NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL AREA GUSTS OF 40 MPH MAY BE FOUND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
SO HAVE ISSUED A STRONG WIND HEADLINE FOR THE SKAGWAY AREA.

.LONG TERM...THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY WARM
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. BEFORE THAT SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL SEE
SOME SHOWERS FROM SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LEFT OVER FROM THE
STRONG UPPER LOW ON THURSDAY EVENING. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SO OVERALL THERE IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE SURFACE LOW MENTIONED IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL STILL BE AFFECTING THE PANHANDLE. THE
LOW WILL MOVING OVER THE INNER CHANNELS AND REDEVELOP IN BC OVER
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW
WILL KEEP WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE INNER CHANNELS 20 TO
35 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER NORTHERN LYNN. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND BY FRIDAY MORNING SOUTH WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OVER SOUTH TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA BUT 15 TO
20 KT OVER LYNN CANAL. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN ALL WINDS EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN LYNN WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT.
OVER LAND...STRONG WINDS GUSTS WILL PERSIST NEAR SKAGWAY AND
BREEZING CONDITIONS NEAR HAINES. THOSE STRONGER GUSTS WILL
DECREASE BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH
THEM STICKING AROUND NEAR THE JUNEAU AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT
THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE GULF TO INCREASE THE OFFSHORE FLOW
AND SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE GULF BUT WILL SHEER APART WITH MID LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND JUST BRING IN SOME CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL AGAIN REBUILD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO
INCREASE THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

SUNNY SKIES ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO THERE
IS SOME VERY WARM AIR THAT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850MB TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM +12 TO +19 MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WITH A FORECASTED
INVERTED TROUGH BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. THESE CONDITIONS COULD PRODUCE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...LAKE NO LAKE WAS OBSERVED BY PILOTS AS RELEASING
WATER UNDER THE TALSEQUAH GLACIER ON WEDNESDAY. RIVER LEVELS HAVE
BEGUN TO RISE QUICKLY AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING ON TAKU
RIVER AS THE RELEASED WATER RAISES THE WATER LEVEL. AT 2 PM THE
TAKU RIVER WAS AT 38.3 FEET AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST AT 42.8 FEET
10 AM THURSDAY MORNING. FLOOD STAGE FOR THE TAKU RIVER IS 43.0
FEET WITH BANKFULL LEVEL CONDITIONS 42.0 FEET. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF WATER THAT WILL RELEASED INTO
THE TAKU RIVER SO THE CREST HEIGHT AND TIMING MAY DIFFER FROM THE
FORECAST.

INCREASE FLOW ON THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN INCREASED FLOATING
DEBRIS OF TREES AND ICE CHUCKS FLOWING DOWN THE TAKU RIVER. COLDER
THAN NORMAL WATER TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT OF
HYPOTHERMIA FOR ANYONE FALLING IN TO THE WATER. PERSONS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS WHILE RECREATING ON THE TAKU
RIVER THROUGH THE EVENT.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-031>035-041-042-052.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/ABJ

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 020017
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
417 PM AKDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...A LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL
MOVE TO NEAR CAPE FAIRWEATHER THURSDAY AND THEN INLAND BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE GULF AND COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECT TO
RISE UP TO LOW GALE FORCE IN SOME AREAS WHICH IS A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN IS TYPICALLY SEEN DURING THE SUMMER SEASON IN SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. THE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE ARE MAIN IMPACT FOR THE MARINE
AND LAND AREA OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 2 INCHES. A
REBOUND SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SEND A BURST
OF WIND NORTH THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS. OVER THE NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL AREA GUSTS OF 40 MPH MAY BE FOUND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
SO HAVE ISSUED A STRONG WIND HEADLINE FOR THE SKAGWAY AREA.

.LONG TERM...THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY WARM
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. BEFORE THAT SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL SEE
SOME SHOWERS FROM SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LEFT OVER FROM THE
STRONG UPPER LOW ON THURSDAY EVENING. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SO OVERALL THERE IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE SURFACE LOW MENTIONED IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL STILL BE AFFECTING THE PANHANDLE. THE
LOW WILL MOVING OVER THE INNER CHANNELS AND REDEVELOP IN BC OVER
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW
WILL KEEP WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE INNER CHANNELS 20 TO
35 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER NORTHERN LYNN. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND BY FRIDAY MORNING SOUTH WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OVER SOUTH TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA BUT 15 TO
20 KT OVER LYNN CANAL. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN ALL WINDS EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN LYNN WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT.
OVER LAND...STRONG WINDS GUSTS WILL PERSIST NEAR SKAGWAY AND
BREEZING CONDITIONS NEAR HAINES. THOSE STRONGER GUSTS WILL
DECREASE BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH
THEM STICKING AROUND NEAR THE JUNEAU AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT
THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE GULF TO INCREASE THE OFFSHORE FLOW
AND SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE GULF BUT WILL SHEER APART WITH MID LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND JUST BRING IN SOME CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL AGAIN REBUILD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO
INCREASE THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

SUNNY SKIES ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO THERE
IS SOME VERY WARM AIR THAT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850MB TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM +12 TO +19 MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WITH A FORECASTED
INVERTED TROUGH BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. THESE CONDITIONS COULD PRODUCE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...LAKE NO LAKE WAS OBSERVED BY PILOTS AS RELEASING
WATER UNDER THE TALSEQUAH GLACIER ON WEDNESDAY. RIVER LEVELS HAVE
BEGUN TO RISE QUICKLY AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING ON TAKU
RIVER AS THE RELEASED WATER RAISES THE WATER LEVEL. AT 2 PM THE
TAKU RIVER WAS AT 38.3 FEET AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST AT 42.8 FEET
10 AM THURSDAY MORNING. FLOOD STAGE FOR THE TAKU RIVER IS 43.0
FEET WITH BANKFULL LEVEL CONDITIONS 42.0 FEET. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF WATER THAT WILL RELEASED INTO
THE TAKU RIVER SO THE CREST HEIGHT AND TIMING MAY DIFFER FROM THE
FORECAST.

INCREASE FLOW ON THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN INCREASED FLOATING
DEBRIS OF TREES AND ICE CHUCKS FLOWING DOWN THE TAKU RIVER. COLDER
THAN NORMAL WATER TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT OF
HYPOTHERMIA FOR ANYONE FALLING IN TO THE WATER. PERSONS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS WHILE RECREATING ON THE TAKU
RIVER THROUGH THE EVENT.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-031>035-041-042-052.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/ABJ

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK67 PAJK 020017
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
417 PM AKDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...A LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL
MOVE TO NEAR CAPE FAIRWEATHER THURSDAY AND THEN INLAND BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE GULF AND COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECT TO
RISE UP TO LOW GALE FORCE IN SOME AREAS WHICH IS A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN IS TYPICALLY SEEN DURING THE SUMMER SEASON IN SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. THE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE ARE MAIN IMPACT FOR THE MARINE
AND LAND AREA OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 2 INCHES. A
REBOUND SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SEND A BURST
OF WIND NORTH THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS. OVER THE NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL AREA GUSTS OF 40 MPH MAY BE FOUND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
SO HAVE ISSUED A STRONG WIND HEADLINE FOR THE SKAGWAY AREA.

.LONG TERM...THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY WARM
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. BEFORE THAT SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL SEE
SOME SHOWERS FROM SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LEFT OVER FROM THE
STRONG UPPER LOW ON THURSDAY EVENING. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SO OVERALL THERE IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE SURFACE LOW MENTIONED IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL STILL BE AFFECTING THE PANHANDLE. THE
LOW WILL MOVING OVER THE INNER CHANNELS AND REDEVELOP IN BC OVER
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW
WILL KEEP WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE INNER CHANNELS 20 TO
35 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER NORTHERN LYNN. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND BY FRIDAY MORNING SOUTH WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OVER SOUTH TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA BUT 15 TO
20 KT OVER LYNN CANAL. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN ALL WINDS EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN LYNN WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT.
OVER LAND...STRONG WINDS GUSTS WILL PERSIST NEAR SKAGWAY AND
BREEZING CONDITIONS NEAR HAINES. THOSE STRONGER GUSTS WILL
DECREASE BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH
THEM STICKING AROUND NEAR THE JUNEAU AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT
THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE GULF TO INCREASE THE OFFSHORE FLOW
AND SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE GULF BUT WILL SHEER APART WITH MID LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND JUST BRING IN SOME CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL AGAIN REBUILD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO
INCREASE THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

SUNNY SKIES ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO THERE
IS SOME VERY WARM AIR THAT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850MB TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM +12 TO +19 MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WITH A FORECASTED
INVERTED TROUGH BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. THESE CONDITIONS COULD PRODUCE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...LAKE NO LAKE WAS OBSERVED BY PILOTS AS RELEASING
WATER UNDER THE TALSEQUAH GLACIER ON WEDNESDAY. RIVER LEVELS HAVE
BEGUN TO RISE QUICKLY AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING ON TAKU
RIVER AS THE RELEASED WATER RAISES THE WATER LEVEL. AT 2 PM THE
TAKU RIVER WAS AT 38.3 FEET AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST AT 42.8 FEET
10 AM THURSDAY MORNING. FLOOD STAGE FOR THE TAKU RIVER IS 43.0
FEET WITH BANKFULL LEVEL CONDITIONS 42.0 FEET. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF WATER THAT WILL RELEASED INTO
THE TAKU RIVER SO THE CREST HEIGHT AND TIMING MAY DIFFER FROM THE
FORECAST.

INCREASE FLOW ON THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN INCREASED FLOATING
DEBRIS OF TREES AND ICE CHUCKS FLOWING DOWN THE TAKU RIVER. COLDER
THAN NORMAL WATER TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT OF
HYPOTHERMIA FOR ANYONE FALLING IN TO THE WATER. PERSONS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS WHILE RECREATING ON THE TAKU
RIVER THROUGH THE EVENT.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-031>035-041-042-052.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/ABJ

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 020017
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
417 PM AKDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...A LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL
MOVE TO NEAR CAPE FAIRWEATHER THURSDAY AND THEN INLAND BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE GULF AND COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECT TO
RISE UP TO LOW GALE FORCE IN SOME AREAS WHICH IS A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN IS TYPICALLY SEEN DURING THE SUMMER SEASON IN SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. THE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE ARE MAIN IMPACT FOR THE MARINE
AND LAND AREA OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 2 INCHES. A
REBOUND SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SEND A BURST
OF WIND NORTH THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS. OVER THE NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL AREA GUSTS OF 40 MPH MAY BE FOUND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
SO HAVE ISSUED A STRONG WIND HEADLINE FOR THE SKAGWAY AREA.

.LONG TERM...THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY WARM
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. BEFORE THAT SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL SEE
SOME SHOWERS FROM SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LEFT OVER FROM THE
STRONG UPPER LOW ON THURSDAY EVENING. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SO OVERALL THERE IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE SURFACE LOW MENTIONED IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL STILL BE AFFECTING THE PANHANDLE. THE
LOW WILL MOVING OVER THE INNER CHANNELS AND REDEVELOP IN BC OVER
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW
WILL KEEP WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE INNER CHANNELS 20 TO
35 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER NORTHERN LYNN. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND BY FRIDAY MORNING SOUTH WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OVER SOUTH TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA BUT 15 TO
20 KT OVER LYNN CANAL. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN ALL WINDS EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN LYNN WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT.
OVER LAND...STRONG WINDS GUSTS WILL PERSIST NEAR SKAGWAY AND
BREEZING CONDITIONS NEAR HAINES. THOSE STRONGER GUSTS WILL
DECREASE BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH
THEM STICKING AROUND NEAR THE JUNEAU AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT
THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE GULF TO INCREASE THE OFFSHORE FLOW
AND SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE GULF BUT WILL SHEER APART WITH MID LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND JUST BRING IN SOME CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL AGAIN REBUILD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO
INCREASE THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

SUNNY SKIES ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO THERE
IS SOME VERY WARM AIR THAT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850MB TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM +12 TO +19 MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WITH A FORECASTED
INVERTED TROUGH BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. THESE CONDITIONS COULD PRODUCE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...LAKE NO LAKE WAS OBSERVED BY PILOTS AS RELEASING
WATER UNDER THE TALSEQUAH GLACIER ON WEDNESDAY. RIVER LEVELS HAVE
BEGUN TO RISE QUICKLY AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING ON TAKU
RIVER AS THE RELEASED WATER RAISES THE WATER LEVEL. AT 2 PM THE
TAKU RIVER WAS AT 38.3 FEET AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST AT 42.8 FEET
10 AM THURSDAY MORNING. FLOOD STAGE FOR THE TAKU RIVER IS 43.0
FEET WITH BANKFULL LEVEL CONDITIONS 42.0 FEET. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF WATER THAT WILL RELEASED INTO
THE TAKU RIVER SO THE CREST HEIGHT AND TIMING MAY DIFFER FROM THE
FORECAST.

INCREASE FLOW ON THE RIVER WILL RESULT IN INCREASED FLOATING
DEBRIS OF TREES AND ICE CHUCKS FLOWING DOWN THE TAKU RIVER. COLDER
THAN NORMAL WATER TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT OF
HYPOTHERMIA FOR ANYONE FALLING IN TO THE WATER. PERSONS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS WHILE RECREATING ON THE TAKU
RIVER THROUGH THE EVENT.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-031>035-041-042-052.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/ABJ

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK67 PAJK 011358
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
558 AM AKDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN AK GULF IS
TRACKING EASTWARD AND WILL MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE TODAY AS A
DEVELOPING LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS LOW WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTER NEARING CAPE
FAIRWEATHER. THE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CALM
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE ADVANCING LOW.
RAIN WILL HIT THE CENTRAL COASTAL PANHANDLE FIRST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THE EXTEND EASTWARDS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES INLAND. 6 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WHERE STRONGEST LIFTING
MECHANISMS ARE LOCATED WITH VALUES UPWARDS OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR MORE. AS THIS IS A FAIRLY FAST MOVING LOW THE RAIN LOOKS TO
MOVE IN AND OUT QUICKLY. WILL SEE RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOW RISES IN
RESPONSE TO THE RAINFALL BUT NONE ARE EXPECT TO NEAR BANKFULL.

UNSTABLE AIR MASS MOVING UNDER THE LOW CENTER WITH COLDER MID
LEVEL AIR MASS LOOKS TO HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE THUNDER STORMS
OVER THE OFFSHORE AND COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. WHILE CAPE AND LI
INDEX VALUES ARE NOT VERY SIGNIFICANT SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
ROBUST FOR THE SEASON HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER STORMS.

INCREASING WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE NORTHEASTERLY TRACK OF THE LOW
WITH GALES DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER TONIGHT OVER PKZ310 AND
PKZ043. EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT TO MAX SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR THE
REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY TONIGHT. OVERLAND WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THEN INCREASE AND SHIFT BY THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ALONG COASTAL AREAS SUCH AS ELFIN COVE AND SITKA. 850 MB WINDS ARE
JUST AROUND 35 KT TONIGHT AROUND THE LOW CENTER SO FOR NOW DO NOT
EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP BUT HIGHER GUSTS IN EXPOSED AREAS
ARE LIKELY.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC PATTERN BUT STILL
HAD SOME DIFFERENCES WITH LOW POSITION AND STRENGTH. THE NAM MOVES
IN THE LOW THE FASTEST WITH GEM HAVING THE DEEPEST CENTER.
INHERITED FORECAST WAS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND
FELT NAM WAS BIT MORE OF AN OUTLIER SO LEFT INHERITED GRIDS MOSTLY
AS IS. MOST MODELS HAD A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS, JUST ENOUGH TO
ADD GALES TO THE MARINE FORECAST. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE WAS DONE
TO THE FORECAST AS MOST FIELDS STILL LINED UP WITH NEW MODEL RUNS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...THE TREND IS FOR WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TO RETURN
TO SE AK STARTING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. HOW FAST THE TRANSITION WILL OCCUR IS THE FORECAST
CHALLENGE. THERE ARE THE USUAL DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT WE WENT WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT MILD HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
LIGHT WIND. BY MON THROUGH WED NEXT WEEK SKY CONDITIONS MAY BE
CLEARER.

BACK TO THIS WEEK...THURS WILL BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY PARTICULARLY
FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. A SMALL BUT DYNAMIC CYCLONE DEEPENING
OVER THE SE GULF OF AK TODAY WILL MOVE INLAND AROUND CAPE
FAIRWEATHER EARLY THUR. SEE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR IMPACTS. BY THUR
EVENING RAIN WILL BE CHANGING TO SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED
WITH LIGHTNING NEAR CROSS SOUND AND GLACIER BAY. AS THE LOW CENTER
CONTINUES QUICKLY THUR EVENING INTO CANADA...GALE FORCE S WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN LYNN CANAL THEN DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRI AND SAT WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE AIRMASS WILL STABLIZE SO RAIN CHANCE
DECREASES FRI AND WENT WITH RAIN FREE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE
DAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
NORTHERN HALF OF PANHANDLE. THE PRESSURE RIDGE IS BUILDING N FROM
THE PAC NW WHERE IT HAS GENERATED QUITE WARM WEATHER RECENTLY.
THIS WARM AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO SE AK FROM SAT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE EC MODEL IS LESS ROBUST WITH THE WARMTH AND KEEPS DAY TIME
TEMPS IN THE 60S WHILE THE GFS MODEL PRODUCED HIGH TEMPS IN THE
70S TO NEAR 80 AT HYDER. I BLENDED EXISTING FORECASTS WITH A MIX
STATISTICAL OUTPUT FROM THE GFS FOR THIS WEATHER PATTERN WHICH
LED ME TO GO THE WARMER ROUTE THROUGH NEXT TUES.

&&

.MARINE...A VIGOROUS LOW FOR THE SEASON WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND WILL TRACK INLAND SOUTH OF CAPE FAIRWEATHER
THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25
TO 35 KT FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY EVENING. EAST WINDS OUT OF CROSS
SOUND WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 25 TO 30 KT AS THE LOW
APPROACHES.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AT SPEEDS 20 TO 25 KT
FOR THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES AND THROUGH CROSS SOUND LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

SEAS HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 10 FT WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL INCREASE UP TO 10 TO 12 FT THURSDAY EARLY
MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.

UNSTABLE AIR MASS MOVING IN WITH THE LOW HAS POTENTIAL FOR
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE
FAIRWEATHER REGION STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVING INLAND OVER
CROSS SOUND THURSDAY MORNING.

A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED ON THIS EVENT.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-041-042-051.

&&

$$

PRB/TA

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK67 PAJK 011358
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
558 AM AKDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN AK GULF IS
TRACKING EASTWARD AND WILL MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE TODAY AS A
DEVELOPING LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS LOW WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTER NEARING CAPE
FAIRWEATHER. THE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CALM
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE ADVANCING LOW.
RAIN WILL HIT THE CENTRAL COASTAL PANHANDLE FIRST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THE EXTEND EASTWARDS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES INLAND. 6 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WHERE STRONGEST LIFTING
MECHANISMS ARE LOCATED WITH VALUES UPWARDS OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR MORE. AS THIS IS A FAIRLY FAST MOVING LOW THE RAIN LOOKS TO
MOVE IN AND OUT QUICKLY. WILL SEE RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOW RISES IN
RESPONSE TO THE RAINFALL BUT NONE ARE EXPECT TO NEAR BANKFULL.

UNSTABLE AIR MASS MOVING UNDER THE LOW CENTER WITH COLDER MID
LEVEL AIR MASS LOOKS TO HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE THUNDER STORMS
OVER THE OFFSHORE AND COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. WHILE CAPE AND LI
INDEX VALUES ARE NOT VERY SIGNIFICANT SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
ROBUST FOR THE SEASON HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER STORMS.

INCREASING WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE NORTHEASTERLY TRACK OF THE LOW
WITH GALES DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER TONIGHT OVER PKZ310 AND
PKZ043. EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT TO MAX SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR THE
REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY TONIGHT. OVERLAND WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THEN INCREASE AND SHIFT BY THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ALONG COASTAL AREAS SUCH AS ELFIN COVE AND SITKA. 850 MB WINDS ARE
JUST AROUND 35 KT TONIGHT AROUND THE LOW CENTER SO FOR NOW DO NOT
EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP BUT HIGHER GUSTS IN EXPOSED AREAS
ARE LIKELY.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC PATTERN BUT STILL
HAD SOME DIFFERENCES WITH LOW POSITION AND STRENGTH. THE NAM MOVES
IN THE LOW THE FASTEST WITH GEM HAVING THE DEEPEST CENTER.
INHERITED FORECAST WAS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND
FELT NAM WAS BIT MORE OF AN OUTLIER SO LEFT INHERITED GRIDS MOSTLY
AS IS. MOST MODELS HAD A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS, JUST ENOUGH TO
ADD GALES TO THE MARINE FORECAST. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE WAS DONE
TO THE FORECAST AS MOST FIELDS STILL LINED UP WITH NEW MODEL RUNS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...THE TREND IS FOR WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TO RETURN
TO SE AK STARTING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. HOW FAST THE TRANSITION WILL OCCUR IS THE FORECAST
CHALLENGE. THERE ARE THE USUAL DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT WE WENT WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT MILD HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
LIGHT WIND. BY MON THROUGH WED NEXT WEEK SKY CONDITIONS MAY BE
CLEARER.

BACK TO THIS WEEK...THURS WILL BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY PARTICULARLY
FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. A SMALL BUT DYNAMIC CYCLONE DEEPENING
OVER THE SE GULF OF AK TODAY WILL MOVE INLAND AROUND CAPE
FAIRWEATHER EARLY THUR. SEE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR IMPACTS. BY THUR
EVENING RAIN WILL BE CHANGING TO SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED
WITH LIGHTNING NEAR CROSS SOUND AND GLACIER BAY. AS THE LOW CENTER
CONTINUES QUICKLY THUR EVENING INTO CANADA...GALE FORCE S WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN LYNN CANAL THEN DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRI AND SAT WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE AIRMASS WILL STABLIZE SO RAIN CHANCE
DECREASES FRI AND WENT WITH RAIN FREE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE
DAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
NORTHERN HALF OF PANHANDLE. THE PRESSURE RIDGE IS BUILDING N FROM
THE PAC NW WHERE IT HAS GENERATED QUITE WARM WEATHER RECENTLY.
THIS WARM AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO SE AK FROM SAT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE EC MODEL IS LESS ROBUST WITH THE WARMTH AND KEEPS DAY TIME
TEMPS IN THE 60S WHILE THE GFS MODEL PRODUCED HIGH TEMPS IN THE
70S TO NEAR 80 AT HYDER. I BLENDED EXISTING FORECASTS WITH A MIX
STATISTICAL OUTPUT FROM THE GFS FOR THIS WEATHER PATTERN WHICH
LED ME TO GO THE WARMER ROUTE THROUGH NEXT TUES.

&&

.MARINE...A VIGOROUS LOW FOR THE SEASON WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND WILL TRACK INLAND SOUTH OF CAPE FAIRWEATHER
THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25
TO 35 KT FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY EVENING. EAST WINDS OUT OF CROSS
SOUND WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 25 TO 30 KT AS THE LOW
APPROACHES.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AT SPEEDS 20 TO 25 KT
FOR THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES AND THROUGH CROSS SOUND LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

SEAS HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 10 FT WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL INCREASE UP TO 10 TO 12 FT THURSDAY EARLY
MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.

UNSTABLE AIR MASS MOVING IN WITH THE LOW HAS POTENTIAL FOR
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE
FAIRWEATHER REGION STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVING INLAND OVER
CROSS SOUND THURSDAY MORNING.

A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED ON THIS EVENT.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-041-042-051.

&&

$$

PRB/TA

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 011358
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
558 AM AKDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN AK GULF IS
TRACKING EASTWARD AND WILL MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE TODAY AS A
DEVELOPING LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS LOW WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTER NEARING CAPE
FAIRWEATHER. THE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CALM
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE ADVANCING LOW.
RAIN WILL HIT THE CENTRAL COASTAL PANHANDLE FIRST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THE EXTEND EASTWARDS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES INLAND. 6 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WHERE STRONGEST LIFTING
MECHANISMS ARE LOCATED WITH VALUES UPWARDS OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR MORE. AS THIS IS A FAIRLY FAST MOVING LOW THE RAIN LOOKS TO
MOVE IN AND OUT QUICKLY. WILL SEE RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOW RISES IN
RESPONSE TO THE RAINFALL BUT NONE ARE EXPECT TO NEAR BANKFULL.

UNSTABLE AIR MASS MOVING UNDER THE LOW CENTER WITH COLDER MID
LEVEL AIR MASS LOOKS TO HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE THUNDER STORMS
OVER THE OFFSHORE AND COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. WHILE CAPE AND LI
INDEX VALUES ARE NOT VERY SIGNIFICANT SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
ROBUST FOR THE SEASON HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER STORMS.

INCREASING WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE NORTHEASTERLY TRACK OF THE LOW
WITH GALES DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER TONIGHT OVER PKZ310 AND
PKZ043. EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT TO MAX SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR THE
REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY TONIGHT. OVERLAND WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THEN INCREASE AND SHIFT BY THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ALONG COASTAL AREAS SUCH AS ELFIN COVE AND SITKA. 850 MB WINDS ARE
JUST AROUND 35 KT TONIGHT AROUND THE LOW CENTER SO FOR NOW DO NOT
EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP BUT HIGHER GUSTS IN EXPOSED AREAS
ARE LIKELY.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC PATTERN BUT STILL
HAD SOME DIFFERENCES WITH LOW POSITION AND STRENGTH. THE NAM MOVES
IN THE LOW THE FASTEST WITH GEM HAVING THE DEEPEST CENTER.
INHERITED FORECAST WAS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND
FELT NAM WAS BIT MORE OF AN OUTLIER SO LEFT INHERITED GRIDS MOSTLY
AS IS. MOST MODELS HAD A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS, JUST ENOUGH TO
ADD GALES TO THE MARINE FORECAST. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE WAS DONE
TO THE FORECAST AS MOST FIELDS STILL LINED UP WITH NEW MODEL RUNS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...THE TREND IS FOR WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TO RETURN
TO SE AK STARTING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. HOW FAST THE TRANSITION WILL OCCUR IS THE FORECAST
CHALLENGE. THERE ARE THE USUAL DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT WE WENT WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT MILD HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
LIGHT WIND. BY MON THROUGH WED NEXT WEEK SKY CONDITIONS MAY BE
CLEARER.

BACK TO THIS WEEK...THURS WILL BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY PARTICULARLY
FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. A SMALL BUT DYNAMIC CYCLONE DEEPENING
OVER THE SE GULF OF AK TODAY WILL MOVE INLAND AROUND CAPE
FAIRWEATHER EARLY THUR. SEE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR IMPACTS. BY THUR
EVENING RAIN WILL BE CHANGING TO SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED
WITH LIGHTNING NEAR CROSS SOUND AND GLACIER BAY. AS THE LOW CENTER
CONTINUES QUICKLY THUR EVENING INTO CANADA...GALE FORCE S WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN LYNN CANAL THEN DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRI AND SAT WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE AIRMASS WILL STABLIZE SO RAIN CHANCE
DECREASES FRI AND WENT WITH RAIN FREE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE
DAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
NORTHERN HALF OF PANHANDLE. THE PRESSURE RIDGE IS BUILDING N FROM
THE PAC NW WHERE IT HAS GENERATED QUITE WARM WEATHER RECENTLY.
THIS WARM AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO SE AK FROM SAT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE EC MODEL IS LESS ROBUST WITH THE WARMTH AND KEEPS DAY TIME
TEMPS IN THE 60S WHILE THE GFS MODEL PRODUCED HIGH TEMPS IN THE
70S TO NEAR 80 AT HYDER. I BLENDED EXISTING FORECASTS WITH A MIX
STATISTICAL OUTPUT FROM THE GFS FOR THIS WEATHER PATTERN WHICH
LED ME TO GO THE WARMER ROUTE THROUGH NEXT TUES.

&&

.MARINE...A VIGOROUS LOW FOR THE SEASON WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND WILL TRACK INLAND SOUTH OF CAPE FAIRWEATHER
THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25
TO 35 KT FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY EVENING. EAST WINDS OUT OF CROSS
SOUND WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 25 TO 30 KT AS THE LOW
APPROACHES.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AT SPEEDS 20 TO 25 KT
FOR THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES AND THROUGH CROSS SOUND LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

SEAS HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 10 FT WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL INCREASE UP TO 10 TO 12 FT THURSDAY EARLY
MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.

UNSTABLE AIR MASS MOVING IN WITH THE LOW HAS POTENTIAL FOR
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE
FAIRWEATHER REGION STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVING INLAND OVER
CROSS SOUND THURSDAY MORNING.

A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED ON THIS EVENT.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-041-042-051.

&&

$$

PRB/TA

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK67 PAJK 011358
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
558 AM AKDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN AK GULF IS
TRACKING EASTWARD AND WILL MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE TODAY AS A
DEVELOPING LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS LOW WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTER NEARING CAPE
FAIRWEATHER. THE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CALM
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE ADVANCING LOW.
RAIN WILL HIT THE CENTRAL COASTAL PANHANDLE FIRST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THE EXTEND EASTWARDS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES INLAND. 6 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WHERE STRONGEST LIFTING
MECHANISMS ARE LOCATED WITH VALUES UPWARDS OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR MORE. AS THIS IS A FAIRLY FAST MOVING LOW THE RAIN LOOKS TO
MOVE IN AND OUT QUICKLY. WILL SEE RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOW RISES IN
RESPONSE TO THE RAINFALL BUT NONE ARE EXPECT TO NEAR BANKFULL.

UNSTABLE AIR MASS MOVING UNDER THE LOW CENTER WITH COLDER MID
LEVEL AIR MASS LOOKS TO HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE THUNDER STORMS
OVER THE OFFSHORE AND COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. WHILE CAPE AND LI
INDEX VALUES ARE NOT VERY SIGNIFICANT SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
ROBUST FOR THE SEASON HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER STORMS.

INCREASING WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE NORTHEASTERLY TRACK OF THE LOW
WITH GALES DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER TONIGHT OVER PKZ310 AND
PKZ043. EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT TO MAX SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR THE
REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY TONIGHT. OVERLAND WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THEN INCREASE AND SHIFT BY THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ALONG COASTAL AREAS SUCH AS ELFIN COVE AND SITKA. 850 MB WINDS ARE
JUST AROUND 35 KT TONIGHT AROUND THE LOW CENTER SO FOR NOW DO NOT
EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP BUT HIGHER GUSTS IN EXPOSED AREAS
ARE LIKELY.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC PATTERN BUT STILL
HAD SOME DIFFERENCES WITH LOW POSITION AND STRENGTH. THE NAM MOVES
IN THE LOW THE FASTEST WITH GEM HAVING THE DEEPEST CENTER.
INHERITED FORECAST WAS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND
FELT NAM WAS BIT MORE OF AN OUTLIER SO LEFT INHERITED GRIDS MOSTLY
AS IS. MOST MODELS HAD A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS, JUST ENOUGH TO
ADD GALES TO THE MARINE FORECAST. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE WAS DONE
TO THE FORECAST AS MOST FIELDS STILL LINED UP WITH NEW MODEL RUNS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...THE TREND IS FOR WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TO RETURN
TO SE AK STARTING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. HOW FAST THE TRANSITION WILL OCCUR IS THE FORECAST
CHALLENGE. THERE ARE THE USUAL DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT WE WENT WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT MILD HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
LIGHT WIND. BY MON THROUGH WED NEXT WEEK SKY CONDITIONS MAY BE
CLEARER.

BACK TO THIS WEEK...THURS WILL BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY PARTICULARLY
FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. A SMALL BUT DYNAMIC CYCLONE DEEPENING
OVER THE SE GULF OF AK TODAY WILL MOVE INLAND AROUND CAPE
FAIRWEATHER EARLY THUR. SEE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR IMPACTS. BY THUR
EVENING RAIN WILL BE CHANGING TO SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED
WITH LIGHTNING NEAR CROSS SOUND AND GLACIER BAY. AS THE LOW CENTER
CONTINUES QUICKLY THUR EVENING INTO CANADA...GALE FORCE S WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN LYNN CANAL THEN DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRI AND SAT WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE AIRMASS WILL STABLIZE SO RAIN CHANCE
DECREASES FRI AND WENT WITH RAIN FREE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE
DAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
NORTHERN HALF OF PANHANDLE. THE PRESSURE RIDGE IS BUILDING N FROM
THE PAC NW WHERE IT HAS GENERATED QUITE WARM WEATHER RECENTLY.
THIS WARM AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO SE AK FROM SAT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE EC MODEL IS LESS ROBUST WITH THE WARMTH AND KEEPS DAY TIME
TEMPS IN THE 60S WHILE THE GFS MODEL PRODUCED HIGH TEMPS IN THE
70S TO NEAR 80 AT HYDER. I BLENDED EXISTING FORECASTS WITH A MIX
STATISTICAL OUTPUT FROM THE GFS FOR THIS WEATHER PATTERN WHICH
LED ME TO GO THE WARMER ROUTE THROUGH NEXT TUES.

&&

.MARINE...A VIGOROUS LOW FOR THE SEASON WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND WILL TRACK INLAND SOUTH OF CAPE FAIRWEATHER
THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25
TO 35 KT FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY EVENING. EAST WINDS OUT OF CROSS
SOUND WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 25 TO 30 KT AS THE LOW
APPROACHES.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AT SPEEDS 20 TO 25 KT
FOR THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES AND THROUGH CROSS SOUND LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

SEAS HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 10 FT WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL INCREASE UP TO 10 TO 12 FT THURSDAY EARLY
MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.

UNSTABLE AIR MASS MOVING IN WITH THE LOW HAS POTENTIAL FOR
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE
FAIRWEATHER REGION STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVING INLAND OVER
CROSS SOUND THURSDAY MORNING.

A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED ON THIS EVENT.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-041-042-051.

&&

$$

PRB/TA

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








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