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000
FXAK67 PAJK 011230
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
430 AM AKDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...CLIPPER LOW THAT TRACKED FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF
SOUTHWARD TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT HAS WEAKENED TO AN OPEN
WAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
REGIONS WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING AND AS HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS
BUILDING OVER THE YUKON MOVES SOUTHWARD SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLEAR. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT DROPPED OVER THE REGION LAST NIGHT BROUGHT IN COLD AIR MASS
THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT DAY TIME TEMPS
TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THIS. THERE IS THE CASE THAT THE COLD AIR MASS WILL KEEP TEMPS LOW
BUT INSOLATION DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES MAY PROVIDE MORE WARMING. NOT
AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS THE COLD AIR MASS ALONG
WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS AND MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE SOUTH.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AS SKIES BEGAN TO
CLEAR THIS MORNING. FOG WILL BURN OFF THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
RISE. WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE DEVELOPMENT OF BLACK ICE IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT DRYING TREND THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD LIMIT
THIS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS.

GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER THE YUKON AND THE EXITING
LOW PRODUCING SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN LYNN CANAL. THE
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN TODAY WITH DECREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT THEN REFORM TONIGHT FROM THE NEXT ADVANCING SYSTEM. A
DEVELOPING LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
AK GULF TONIGHT. WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL RISE TO GALE
FORCE FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT. AS THIS LOW
ADVANCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE EASTERLY OUTFLOW WINDS. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL NOT BE FELT UNTIL THURSDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM TODAY THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS BUT THINK THE INCREASING WINDS
WILL LIMIT THIS.

MODELS WERE IN GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
DIFFERENCES WILL MAINLY WITH DAY TIME TEMPS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT. PREFERRED A BLEND OF NAM/ECMWF WHICH WAS STILL
IN LINE WITH INHERITED FORECAST, SO FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
GRIDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR A GALE FORCE
LOW ENTERING SOUTH CENTRAL GULF EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS OVER THE OUTER WATERS...THEN LEADING TO
A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE ALONG WITH STRONG
WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. POSTED STRONG WINDS HEADLINES
FOR ZONES 23 AND 27. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. USED THE NAM AND
ECMWF FOR A FEW FINE TUNES OVER THE PRESSURE...WINDS...POPS AND
QPF FIELDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. HIGH PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
CANADA WILL DRIFT EAST AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
GULF...THUS THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS WILL DIMINISH AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW WILL PRODUCE GENERAL SOUTHERLY WINDS BY FRIDAY.

MODEL SPREADS BECOME LARGER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS THE GULF. MERELY NO
CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS AND ADDED DAY
8 WITH THE GFS BASED GUIDANCE. MAINTAINED GENERALLY WET WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DECREASING POPS BY THE MID WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY THEN FALLS BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ023-027.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043.

&&

$$

PRB/AHN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 011230
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
430 AM AKDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...CLIPPER LOW THAT TRACKED FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF
SOUTHWARD TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT HAS WEAKENED TO AN OPEN
WAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
REGIONS WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING AND AS HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS
BUILDING OVER THE YUKON MOVES SOUTHWARD SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLEAR. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT DROPPED OVER THE REGION LAST NIGHT BROUGHT IN COLD AIR MASS
THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT DAY TIME TEMPS
TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THIS. THERE IS THE CASE THAT THE COLD AIR MASS WILL KEEP TEMPS LOW
BUT INSOLATION DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES MAY PROVIDE MORE WARMING. NOT
AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS THE COLD AIR MASS ALONG
WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS AND MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE SOUTH.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AS SKIES BEGAN TO
CLEAR THIS MORNING. FOG WILL BURN OFF THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
RISE. WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE DEVELOPMENT OF BLACK ICE IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT DRYING TREND THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD LIMIT
THIS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS.

GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER THE YUKON AND THE EXITING
LOW PRODUCING SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN LYNN CANAL. THE
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN TODAY WITH DECREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT THEN REFORM TONIGHT FROM THE NEXT ADVANCING SYSTEM. A
DEVELOPING LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
AK GULF TONIGHT. WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL RISE TO GALE
FORCE FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT. AS THIS LOW
ADVANCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE EASTERLY OUTFLOW WINDS. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL NOT BE FELT UNTIL THURSDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM TODAY THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS BUT THINK THE INCREASING WINDS
WILL LIMIT THIS.

MODELS WERE IN GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
DIFFERENCES WILL MAINLY WITH DAY TIME TEMPS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT. PREFERRED A BLEND OF NAM/ECMWF WHICH WAS STILL
IN LINE WITH INHERITED FORECAST, SO FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
GRIDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR A GALE FORCE
LOW ENTERING SOUTH CENTRAL GULF EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS OVER THE OUTER WATERS...THEN LEADING TO
A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE ALONG WITH STRONG
WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. POSTED STRONG WINDS HEADLINES
FOR ZONES 23 AND 27. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. USED THE NAM AND
ECMWF FOR A FEW FINE TUNES OVER THE PRESSURE...WINDS...POPS AND
QPF FIELDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. HIGH PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
CANADA WILL DRIFT EAST AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
GULF...THUS THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS WILL DIMINISH AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW WILL PRODUCE GENERAL SOUTHERLY WINDS BY FRIDAY.

MODEL SPREADS BECOME LARGER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS THE GULF. MERELY NO
CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS AND ADDED DAY
8 WITH THE GFS BASED GUIDANCE. MAINTAINED GENERALLY WET WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DECREASING POPS BY THE MID WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY THEN FALLS BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ023-027.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043.

&&

$$

PRB/AHN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU










000
FXAK67 PAJK 302315
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
315 PM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS MORNINGS UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO JUMP MOST OF THE ENERGY IN TO
NORTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA. THERE REMAINS SOME ACTIVE HEAVIER
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND TOWARD BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SOME OF THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HAVE BEEN SPARKING A FEW STRIKES OF LIGHTNING. DO NOT THINK THAT
THEY WILL CONTINUE MUCH MORE INTO THE EVENING.  SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
GETTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING BUT MAJORITY AREA WAS
COVERED WITH LOWER CLOUD LEVELS.

THE REMAINS OF THE LOW WILL BE A TROUGH LYING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
JUST SOUTH OF ICY STRAIT THIS EVENING THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NEAR
DIXON ENTRANCE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE
ALASKAN INTERIOR AND YUKON TERRITORY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THE NORTH GRADIENT AND OUTFLOW TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
NORTH. THE COOLER AND DRIER HAS BEEN TRYING TO FILTER IN ALL DAY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND AS THE SHOWERS TAPER OFF AND END OVERNIGHT
LOOK FOR CLEARING TO START AND MOVE SOUTH AS WELL.

GALES FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND TWO OF THE COASTAL ZONES TO
TAPER OFF TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE OUTER
WATER THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. LYNN CANAL TO BE SMALL CRAFT FOR
WINDS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...START OF THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A DRY CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS OVER SERN AK SUPPORTIVE OF A LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
SWING AS WED NIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S /POSSIBLY MID 20S INVOF
YAKUTAT/ WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S BY THU AFTERNOON.
ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLONE ENTERING THE GULF THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE SERN GULF AND FAR SRN PORTIONS
OF THE PANHANDLE THU NIGHT. STRONG WAA AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
RAIN QUICKLY SPREADING FROM SRN AREAS INTO CNTRL/NRN AREAS BY 12Z
FRI. BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE INFLUX AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE SRN
PANHANDLE...AND THUS WILL BE THE MOST PROBABLE LOCATION FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW SUBSTANTIAL
VARIABILITY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW OVER THE GULF. THE
ECMWF PRODUCES MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS...WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE
MORE CONSOLIDATED. THE GEM APPEARED TO BE A GOOD MIDDLE
GROUND...THUS USED THAT MODEL FOR A REFRESH OF PRESSURE FRI INTO
SAT MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO WPC GUIDANCE. DESPITE
DIFFERENCES IN SMALLER SCALE EVOLUTIONARY DETAILS...ALL GUIDANCE
IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT AND
GALE FORCE WINDS FOR BOTH THE INNER CHANNELS AND OUTSIDE WATERS
THU THROUGH FRI. BORDERLINE STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER MARINE ZONES 41...42...43...AND 310 AS A 50-70 KT ELY LOW-
LEVEL JET LIFTS N THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH END GALE FORCE WINDS ALSO APPEAR PROBABLE OVER CROSS
SOUND.

ELSEWHERE...HIGHER RESOLUTION 12 KM NAM SHOWS 25-35 KT OF CROSS
BARRIER FLOW OVER SALISBURY RIDGE. THIS FLOW COMBINED WITH A LOW-
LEVEL INVERSION AND WIND REVERSAL ALOFT WILL FAVOR GUSTY NELY
WINDS IN DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND S DOUGLAS THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED AS SYNOPTIC SLYS SPREAD N
INTO THE AREA FRI MORNING. FARTHER S...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LLJ
TIED TO THE ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL POSSIBLY YIELD GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH OVER LAND ZONE 27 /CRAIG AND KLAWOCK AREA/.

UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY/POSSIBLY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINY WEATHER. HOWEVER...DID
NOT ATTEMPT TO ADD A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DETAIL TO THE FORECAST
DURING THESE LATER TIME PERIODS DUE TO INDIVIDUAL EPISODES OF RAIN
BEING TIED TO SMALL-SCALE/LOW PREDICTABILITY WAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE WITH REGARD TO WIDESPREAD
MARINE WIND HAZARDS THROUGH FRI. CONFIDENCE IN ONSET AND LOCATION
OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS AROUND AVERAGE. CONFIDENCE THEN FALLS
BELOW AVERAGE BY THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ042-043-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-031>033-041-051.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 302315
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
315 PM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS MORNINGS UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO JUMP MOST OF THE ENERGY IN TO
NORTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA. THERE REMAINS SOME ACTIVE HEAVIER
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND TOWARD BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SOME OF THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HAVE BEEN SPARKING A FEW STRIKES OF LIGHTNING. DO NOT THINK THAT
THEY WILL CONTINUE MUCH MORE INTO THE EVENING.  SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
GETTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING BUT MAJORITY AREA WAS
COVERED WITH LOWER CLOUD LEVELS.

THE REMAINS OF THE LOW WILL BE A TROUGH LYING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
JUST SOUTH OF ICY STRAIT THIS EVENING THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NEAR
DIXON ENTRANCE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE
ALASKAN INTERIOR AND YUKON TERRITORY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THE NORTH GRADIENT AND OUTFLOW TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
NORTH. THE COOLER AND DRIER HAS BEEN TRYING TO FILTER IN ALL DAY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND AS THE SHOWERS TAPER OFF AND END OVERNIGHT
LOOK FOR CLEARING TO START AND MOVE SOUTH AS WELL.

GALES FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND TWO OF THE COASTAL ZONES TO
TAPER OFF TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE OUTER
WATER THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. LYNN CANAL TO BE SMALL CRAFT FOR
WINDS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...START OF THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A DRY CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS OVER SERN AK SUPPORTIVE OF A LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
SWING AS WED NIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S /POSSIBLY MID 20S INVOF
YAKUTAT/ WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S BY THU AFTERNOON.
ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLONE ENTERING THE GULF THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE SERN GULF AND FAR SRN PORTIONS
OF THE PANHANDLE THU NIGHT. STRONG WAA AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
RAIN QUICKLY SPREADING FROM SRN AREAS INTO CNTRL/NRN AREAS BY 12Z
FRI. BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE INFLUX AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE SRN
PANHANDLE...AND THUS WILL BE THE MOST PROBABLE LOCATION FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW SUBSTANTIAL
VARIABILITY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW OVER THE GULF. THE
ECMWF PRODUCES MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS...WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE
MORE CONSOLIDATED. THE GEM APPEARED TO BE A GOOD MIDDLE
GROUND...THUS USED THAT MODEL FOR A REFRESH OF PRESSURE FRI INTO
SAT MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO WPC GUIDANCE. DESPITE
DIFFERENCES IN SMALLER SCALE EVOLUTIONARY DETAILS...ALL GUIDANCE
IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT AND
GALE FORCE WINDS FOR BOTH THE INNER CHANNELS AND OUTSIDE WATERS
THU THROUGH FRI. BORDERLINE STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER MARINE ZONES 41...42...43...AND 310 AS A 50-70 KT ELY LOW-
LEVEL JET LIFTS N THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH END GALE FORCE WINDS ALSO APPEAR PROBABLE OVER CROSS
SOUND.

ELSEWHERE...HIGHER RESOLUTION 12 KM NAM SHOWS 25-35 KT OF CROSS
BARRIER FLOW OVER SALISBURY RIDGE. THIS FLOW COMBINED WITH A LOW-
LEVEL INVERSION AND WIND REVERSAL ALOFT WILL FAVOR GUSTY NELY
WINDS IN DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND S DOUGLAS THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED AS SYNOPTIC SLYS SPREAD N
INTO THE AREA FRI MORNING. FARTHER S...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LLJ
TIED TO THE ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL POSSIBLY YIELD GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH OVER LAND ZONE 27 /CRAIG AND KLAWOCK AREA/.

UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY/POSSIBLY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINY WEATHER. HOWEVER...DID
NOT ATTEMPT TO ADD A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DETAIL TO THE FORECAST
DURING THESE LATER TIME PERIODS DUE TO INDIVIDUAL EPISODES OF RAIN
BEING TIED TO SMALL-SCALE/LOW PREDICTABILITY WAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE WITH REGARD TO WIDESPREAD
MARINE WIND HAZARDS THROUGH FRI. CONFIDENCE IN ONSET AND LOCATION
OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS AROUND AVERAGE. CONFIDENCE THEN FALLS
BELOW AVERAGE BY THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ042-043-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-031>033-041-051.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 301342
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
542 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE MAIN THEME OF THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST TODAY IS
CHANGE AS WE SEE THE BEGINNINGS OF THE FIRST COOL AIR MASS OF THE
FALL START TO DESCEND OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. BUT FIRST WE
HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS DRAGGING THE COOL AIR
DOWN IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY JUST EXITING
EASTERN INTERIOR ALASKA AND HEADING INTO THE WESTERN YUKON WITH
THE SOUTHERN END OF IT EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. A 80 KT
JET STREAK AT 500 MB THAT IS ROUNDING THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH
IS NOT ONLY KEEPING THE TROUGH DEEP BUT ITS LEFT EXIT REGION HAS
HELPED FORM A 1002 MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND
SPARKED OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
AND GULF COAST OVERNIGHT. THE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING DETECTED IN THAT
AREA HAS DIMINISHED IN NUMBER OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO AS THE JET
STREAK MOVES E. SPEAKING OF WIND THERE IS A DECENT BAND OF GALE
FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW AS WELL THIS
MORNING. AS FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE, LOW CLOUDS, SOME FOG,
AND SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE THE RULE OF THE MORNING.

THE TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS AS IT COMES. MORE VIGOROUS SHOWERS
WILL BE STARTING UP IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WITH
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE STARTING TO GET IT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
TROUGH SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY LATE TONIGHT ENDING
THE RAIN FOR THE NORTH BY THEN. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THIS
TROUGH ARE RATHER COLD (AROUND -30 C). THAT COMBINED WITH THE
STILL PRESENT JET STREAK AND SOME UPPER VORTICITY COULD KEEP THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS POPPING VALID. AS SUCH STILL
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UP FOR THE NEAR OUTER COASTAL
AREAS OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE
GULF TODAY. DECIDED TO NOT EXTEND IT INTO TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH
WILL HAVE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AND THE MAIN FORCING WILL NO LONGER BE
OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES SE THE WINDS IN THE GULF WILL START TO
DIMINISH. WESTERLY GALES WILL STILL BE PRESENT THROUGH TODAY BUT
SHOULD START TO DIMINISH TONIGHT DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT BY
LATE TONIGHT. AS FOR INNER CHANNEL WINDS MOST PLACES WILL BE
STARTING OUT WITH EITHER W OR S WIND DIRECTIONS DEPENDING ON THE
LOCATION. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SOME
AREAS LIKE LYNN CANAL HAVE JUMPED UP TO A SOUTHERLY SMALL CRAFT
THIS MORNING. THESE HIGHER WINDS WILL TRANSITION SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL START TO SHIFT TO N AS THE TROUGH MOVES
BY. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE THIS SHIFT SOMETIME THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WILL HAVE TO WAIT TILL
SOMETIME TONIGHT.

BEHIND THE TROUGH THINGS RAPIDLY DRY AND CLEAR OUT AS A COOL AIR
MASS MAKES ITS WAY OUT OF THE ALASKA INTERIOR. YAKUTAT WILL LIKELY
HAVE A PARTLY CLOUDY BUT COOL NIGHT. AREAS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE DIMINISHING CLOUDS TONIGHT. AS SUCH
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AND MAY GET BELOW FREEZING IN YAKUTAT AND WHITE PASS
AREA. ALSO WHILE THIS AIR MASS IS COMING FROM THE ARCTIC IT IS
NOT BITTERLY COLD AS WE ARE STILL EARLY IN THE SEASON. STILL IT HAS
ENOUGH PUNCH THAT NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL START UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONE. HOWEVER
THE COOL AIR POOLING IN THE YUKON DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE DEEP
ENOUGH TO GET OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES YET. SO NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE CANAL ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH 30 KT TONIGHT AND
SOME GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED IN DISENCHANTMENT BAY. OTHERWISE
MOST OTHER AREAS WILL ONLY SEE WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE
TONIGHT.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT BUT DID DIFFER ON THE
SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF. NAM AND ECMWF SEEMED TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON LOW POSITION AND STRENGTH. THE GFS WAS A BIT TOO
FAR E WITH IT AND THE GEM JUST JUST A BIT TOO WEAK COMPARED TO
SURFACE OBS. FOR WINDS GEM AND NAM SEEMED TO HAVE SPEEDS DOWN
WHILE OTHER MODELS WERE JUST A LITTLE WEAK COMPARED TO SOME OBS.
OVERALL FEW CHANGES IN THE SHORT RANGE WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE
CHANGES BEING STRENGTHEN THE OUTFLOW WINDS A BIT TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...REMNANTS OF FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW WILL CROSS FROM
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR HYDER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT
IS BUILDING OVER THE YUKON UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO
THE PANHANDLE. OFFSHORE FLOW BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND A LOW MOVING INTO THE AK GULF WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS NEXT LOW HAS POTENTIAL TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION. AS THIS ADVANCING LOW STRENGTHENS OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS OVER THE AK
GULF WILL ALSO INCREASE UP TO GALE FORCE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVE IN. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE FORM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH WINDS CONTINUING
TO INCREASE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED
CHANNELS, OVER COASTAL AREAS AND OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

AFTER THE DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT MORE WET WEATHER
RETURNS AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THIS INCOMING
SYSTEM INCORPORATES THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM KUMMARI IT WILL
PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN STARTING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW FILLS AND STARTS TO EXIT THE REGION. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY MOVES
COLD AIR MASS IN FROM THE YUKON OVER PANHANDLE WITH 850 MB TEMPS
IN THE -2 TO -6 C RANGE. CLEAR SKIES MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INSOLATION
FOR DAY TIME TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN TO UPPER 20 TO LOW 30S FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AND THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR THE SOUTH DUE TO NOT
ONLY THE COLD UPPER LEVEL AIR BUT ALSO RADIATIONAL COOLING
RESULTING FROM CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT WITH MOST PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN
BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO PRODUCE
SNOW.

MODELS HAD GOOD CONSENSUS ON SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY BUT WITH LARGER MODEL SPECTRUM FOR TEMPERATURES. LEFT
GRIDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MOSTLY AS IS DUE TO SIMILARITY TO NEW
MODEL RUNS WITH SOME LOWER TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ADVANCING
SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK BECAME MORE OF AN ISSUE. PREVIOUSLY
THE GEM HAD BEEN MODEL OF CHOICE DUE TO ITS CONSISTENCY, BUT THE
NEWEST RUN SHIFTED IN POSITION AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY STRENGTH BY
DROPPING THE LOW CENTER TO 975 MB. THE GEM/ECMWF WERE CLOSER IN
STRENGTH WITH WEAKER GFS/NAM BUT THE GEM/GFS WERE CLOSER WITH
POSITION OF THE LOW WITH ECMWF/NAM FURTHER WEST. FOR NOW BUMPED UP
WINDS IN ANTICIPATION OF A DEEPER LOW BUT HELD OFF ON CHANGING THE
LOW POSITION UNTIL MODELS COME TO A BETTER CONSENSUS. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE FOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN IS WELL BELOW
AVERAGE STARTING THURSDAY.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-033-036-041-042-051.

&&

$$

EAL/PRB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 301342
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
542 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE MAIN THEME OF THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST TODAY IS
CHANGE AS WE SEE THE BEGINNINGS OF THE FIRST COOL AIR MASS OF THE
FALL START TO DESCEND OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. BUT FIRST WE
HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS DRAGGING THE COOL AIR
DOWN IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY JUST EXITING
EASTERN INTERIOR ALASKA AND HEADING INTO THE WESTERN YUKON WITH
THE SOUTHERN END OF IT EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. A 80 KT
JET STREAK AT 500 MB THAT IS ROUNDING THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH
IS NOT ONLY KEEPING THE TROUGH DEEP BUT ITS LEFT EXIT REGION HAS
HELPED FORM A 1002 MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND
SPARKED OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
AND GULF COAST OVERNIGHT. THE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING DETECTED IN THAT
AREA HAS DIMINISHED IN NUMBER OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO AS THE JET
STREAK MOVES E. SPEAKING OF WIND THERE IS A DECENT BAND OF GALE
FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW AS WELL THIS
MORNING. AS FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE, LOW CLOUDS, SOME FOG,
AND SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE THE RULE OF THE MORNING.

THE TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS AS IT COMES. MORE VIGOROUS SHOWERS
WILL BE STARTING UP IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WITH
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE STARTING TO GET IT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
TROUGH SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY LATE TONIGHT ENDING
THE RAIN FOR THE NORTH BY THEN. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THIS
TROUGH ARE RATHER COLD (AROUND -30 C). THAT COMBINED WITH THE
STILL PRESENT JET STREAK AND SOME UPPER VORTICITY COULD KEEP THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS POPPING VALID. AS SUCH STILL
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UP FOR THE NEAR OUTER COASTAL
AREAS OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE
GULF TODAY. DECIDED TO NOT EXTEND IT INTO TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH
WILL HAVE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AND THE MAIN FORCING WILL NO LONGER BE
OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES SE THE WINDS IN THE GULF WILL START TO
DIMINISH. WESTERLY GALES WILL STILL BE PRESENT THROUGH TODAY BUT
SHOULD START TO DIMINISH TONIGHT DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT BY
LATE TONIGHT. AS FOR INNER CHANNEL WINDS MOST PLACES WILL BE
STARTING OUT WITH EITHER W OR S WIND DIRECTIONS DEPENDING ON THE
LOCATION. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SOME
AREAS LIKE LYNN CANAL HAVE JUMPED UP TO A SOUTHERLY SMALL CRAFT
THIS MORNING. THESE HIGHER WINDS WILL TRANSITION SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL START TO SHIFT TO N AS THE TROUGH MOVES
BY. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE THIS SHIFT SOMETIME THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WILL HAVE TO WAIT TILL
SOMETIME TONIGHT.

BEHIND THE TROUGH THINGS RAPIDLY DRY AND CLEAR OUT AS A COOL AIR
MASS MAKES ITS WAY OUT OF THE ALASKA INTERIOR. YAKUTAT WILL LIKELY
HAVE A PARTLY CLOUDY BUT COOL NIGHT. AREAS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE DIMINISHING CLOUDS TONIGHT. AS SUCH
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AND MAY GET BELOW FREEZING IN YAKUTAT AND WHITE PASS
AREA. ALSO WHILE THIS AIR MASS IS COMING FROM THE ARCTIC IT IS
NOT BITTERLY COLD AS WE ARE STILL EARLY IN THE SEASON. STILL IT HAS
ENOUGH PUNCH THAT NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL START UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONE. HOWEVER
THE COOL AIR POOLING IN THE YUKON DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE DEEP
ENOUGH TO GET OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES YET. SO NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE CANAL ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH 30 KT TONIGHT AND
SOME GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED IN DISENCHANTMENT BAY. OTHERWISE
MOST OTHER AREAS WILL ONLY SEE WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE
TONIGHT.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT BUT DID DIFFER ON THE
SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF. NAM AND ECMWF SEEMED TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON LOW POSITION AND STRENGTH. THE GFS WAS A BIT TOO
FAR E WITH IT AND THE GEM JUST JUST A BIT TOO WEAK COMPARED TO
SURFACE OBS. FOR WINDS GEM AND NAM SEEMED TO HAVE SPEEDS DOWN
WHILE OTHER MODELS WERE JUST A LITTLE WEAK COMPARED TO SOME OBS.
OVERALL FEW CHANGES IN THE SHORT RANGE WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE
CHANGES BEING STRENGTHEN THE OUTFLOW WINDS A BIT TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...REMNANTS OF FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW WILL CROSS FROM
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR HYDER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT
IS BUILDING OVER THE YUKON UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO
THE PANHANDLE. OFFSHORE FLOW BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND A LOW MOVING INTO THE AK GULF WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS NEXT LOW HAS POTENTIAL TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION. AS THIS ADVANCING LOW STRENGTHENS OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS OVER THE AK
GULF WILL ALSO INCREASE UP TO GALE FORCE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVE IN. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE FORM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH WINDS CONTINUING
TO INCREASE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED
CHANNELS, OVER COASTAL AREAS AND OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

AFTER THE DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT MORE WET WEATHER
RETURNS AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THIS INCOMING
SYSTEM INCORPORATES THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM KUMMARI IT WILL
PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN STARTING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW FILLS AND STARTS TO EXIT THE REGION. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY MOVES
COLD AIR MASS IN FROM THE YUKON OVER PANHANDLE WITH 850 MB TEMPS
IN THE -2 TO -6 C RANGE. CLEAR SKIES MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INSOLATION
FOR DAY TIME TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN TO UPPER 20 TO LOW 30S FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AND THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR THE SOUTH DUE TO NOT
ONLY THE COLD UPPER LEVEL AIR BUT ALSO RADIATIONAL COOLING
RESULTING FROM CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT WITH MOST PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN
BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO PRODUCE
SNOW.

MODELS HAD GOOD CONSENSUS ON SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY BUT WITH LARGER MODEL SPECTRUM FOR TEMPERATURES. LEFT
GRIDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MOSTLY AS IS DUE TO SIMILARITY TO NEW
MODEL RUNS WITH SOME LOWER TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ADVANCING
SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK BECAME MORE OF AN ISSUE. PREVIOUSLY
THE GEM HAD BEEN MODEL OF CHOICE DUE TO ITS CONSISTENCY, BUT THE
NEWEST RUN SHIFTED IN POSITION AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY STRENGTH BY
DROPPING THE LOW CENTER TO 975 MB. THE GEM/ECMWF WERE CLOSER IN
STRENGTH WITH WEAKER GFS/NAM BUT THE GEM/GFS WERE CLOSER WITH
POSITION OF THE LOW WITH ECMWF/NAM FURTHER WEST. FOR NOW BUMPED UP
WINDS IN ANTICIPATION OF A DEEPER LOW BUT HELD OFF ON CHANGING THE
LOW POSITION UNTIL MODELS COME TO A BETTER CONSENSUS. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE FOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN IS WELL BELOW
AVERAGE STARTING THURSDAY.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-033-036-041-042-051.

&&

$$

EAL/PRB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 300043 CCA
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
442 PM AKDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORT TERM...A WEAKENING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN HAIDA
GWAII THIS EVENING AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED TO THE POINT
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS WILL
TAPER OFF TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BE SLOWER TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING
FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
IS SPINNING UP A SURFACE LOW NEAR CAPE SUCKLING. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COASTLINE TO NEAR CAPE SPENCER
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN. THE TROUGH IS
USHERING IN A BURST OF COLDER AIR ALOFT AND THIS WILL
START TO INFILTRATE THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST...ALSO ON TUESDAY. THE
AIR ALOFT WILL ADD TO THE INSTABILITY ALLOWING FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE FORECAST AS OF YET.

WINDS ON SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SIDE OF LOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (35 KT) FOR THE
NORTHERN OFFSHORE AND MARINE ZONE 52. ELSEWHERE...LOOK FOR WINDS TO
PICK UP TO SMALL CRAFT INTENSITY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...UPPER IMPULSE OBSERVED IN WV IMAGERY OVER THE NRN
GULF THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLE
AND INTO NRN B.C. BY TUE NIGHT. COLD AIR ALOFT /NEAR -30C AT 500
MB/ WILL SUPPORT A CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY REGIME WITH THE PASSING
TROUGH. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LOCATED E
OF THE CWA BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER VORT LOBE EXITS THE REGION. A MUCH
COLDER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /-2 TO -8 AT 850 MB/ IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD SE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. WITH SKIES CLEARING QUICKLY OVER YAKUTAT...LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO FALL TO NEAR 30F TUE NIGHT AS WELL AS WED NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES SPREAD ESE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA WED NIGHT...WHICH WILL FAVOR LOWS IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR INCREASING
OUTFLOW WINDS THU THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED
OVER NWRN CANADA AND A LOW ENTERS THE SRN GULF. SMALL CRAFT NELY
WINDS WILL BE PROBABLE OVER CROSS SOUND...FREDERICK SOUND...AND
SUMNER STRAIT...WITH NLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT EXPECTED IN NRN AND SRN
LYNN CANAL. THOUGH ONLY COARSE DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY AVAILABLE...12 KM NAM SHOWS 20-30 KT OF CROSS BARRIER
FLOW OCCURRING INVOF GASTINEAU CHANNEL. THIS FLOW COMBINED WITH A
ZONE OF FLOW REVERSAL ALOFT SIGNALS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS
IN DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND S DOUGLAS.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NNE INTO THE SRN PANHANDLE THU
NIGHT...WHICH WILL USHER IN STRENGTHENING SLY WINDS AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF MODERATE RAINFALL. THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER SURFACE
CYCLONE OVER THE GULF COMPARED TO THE GFS/GEM. SMOOTHED OUT THESE
DIFFERENCES FOR THE TIME BEING WHILE TRANSITIONING TO THE WPC FRI-
SAT. IN GENERAL...THIS RESULTED IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES FROM
PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
COOLING TREND GOING INTO MID WEEK...AS WELL AS THE ONSET OF THE
NEXT PRECIPITATION EVENT LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ033-036-041>043-051.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU





000
FXAK67 PAJK 300043 CCA
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
442 PM AKDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORT TERM...A WEAKENING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN HAIDA
GWAII THIS EVENING AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED TO THE POINT
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS WILL
TAPER OFF TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BE SLOWER TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING
FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
IS SPINNING UP A SURFACE LOW NEAR CAPE SUCKLING. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COASTLINE TO NEAR CAPE SPENCER
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN. THE TROUGH IS
USHERING IN A BURST OF COLDER AIR ALOFT AND THIS WILL
START TO INFILTRATE THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST...ALSO ON TUESDAY. THE
AIR ALOFT WILL ADD TO THE INSTABILITY ALLOWING FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE FORECAST AS OF YET.

WINDS ON SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SIDE OF LOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (35 KT) FOR THE
NORTHERN OFFSHORE AND MARINE ZONE 52. ELSEWHERE...LOOK FOR WINDS TO
PICK UP TO SMALL CRAFT INTENSITY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...UPPER IMPULSE OBSERVED IN WV IMAGERY OVER THE NRN
GULF THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLE
AND INTO NRN B.C. BY TUE NIGHT. COLD AIR ALOFT /NEAR -30C AT 500
MB/ WILL SUPPORT A CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY REGIME WITH THE PASSING
TROUGH. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LOCATED E
OF THE CWA BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER VORT LOBE EXITS THE REGION. A MUCH
COLDER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /-2 TO -8 AT 850 MB/ IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD SE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. WITH SKIES CLEARING QUICKLY OVER YAKUTAT...LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO FALL TO NEAR 30F TUE NIGHT AS WELL AS WED NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES SPREAD ESE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA WED NIGHT...WHICH WILL FAVOR LOWS IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR INCREASING
OUTFLOW WINDS THU THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED
OVER NWRN CANADA AND A LOW ENTERS THE SRN GULF. SMALL CRAFT NELY
WINDS WILL BE PROBABLE OVER CROSS SOUND...FREDERICK SOUND...AND
SUMNER STRAIT...WITH NLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT EXPECTED IN NRN AND SRN
LYNN CANAL. THOUGH ONLY COARSE DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY AVAILABLE...12 KM NAM SHOWS 20-30 KT OF CROSS BARRIER
FLOW OCCURRING INVOF GASTINEAU CHANNEL. THIS FLOW COMBINED WITH A
ZONE OF FLOW REVERSAL ALOFT SIGNALS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS
IN DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND S DOUGLAS.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NNE INTO THE SRN PANHANDLE THU
NIGHT...WHICH WILL USHER IN STRENGTHENING SLY WINDS AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF MODERATE RAINFALL. THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER SURFACE
CYCLONE OVER THE GULF COMPARED TO THE GFS/GEM. SMOOTHED OUT THESE
DIFFERENCES FOR THE TIME BEING WHILE TRANSITIONING TO THE WPC FRI-
SAT. IN GENERAL...THIS RESULTED IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES FROM
PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
COOLING TREND GOING INTO MID WEEK...AS WELL AS THE ONSET OF THE
NEXT PRECIPITATION EVENT LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ033-036-041>043-051.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU




000
FXAK67 PAJK 292338
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
338 PM AKDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE WEAKENING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN HAIDA
GWAII THIS EVENING AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED TO THE LEVEL
WHERE DO NOT THINK THUNDER WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS REGION THIS EVENING AN TO THE
CENTRAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
EVEN JUST SOME SPRINKLES. THINK THAT SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL
SLOWLY TAPER OF OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING
FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
SPINNING UP A SURFACE LOW NEAR CAPE SUCKLING. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COASTLINE TO NEAR CAPE SPENSER BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW SHOULD START TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY. THE
TROUGH IS USHERING IN A BURST OF COLDER AIR ALOFT AND THIS WILL
START TO INFILTRATE THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST TUESDAY. THE AIR
ALOFT WILL ADD TO THE INSTABILITY ALLOWING FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT
SHOWERS POSSIBLY EVEN SOME THUNDER BUT WILL NOT PUT IN FORECAST.

WINDS ON SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THIS SPIN UP LOW WILL
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (35 KT) FOR THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE AND
MARINE ZONE 52...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR WINDS TO PICK UP TO SMALL CRAFT
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...UPPER IMPULSE OBSERVED IN WV IMAGERY OVER THE NRN
GULF THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLE
AND INTO NRN B.C. BY TUE NIGHT. COLD AIR ALOFT /NEAR -30C AT 500
MB/ WILL SUPPORT A CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY REGIME WITH THE PASSING
TROUGH. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LOCATED E
OF THE CWA BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER VORT LOBE EXITS THE REGION. A MUCH
COLDER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /-2 TO -8 AT 850 MB/ IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD SE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. WITH SKIES CLEARING QUICKLY OVER YAKUTAT...LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO FALL TO NEAR 30F TUE NIGHT AS WELL AS WED NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES SPREAD ESE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA WED NIGHT...WHICH WILL FAVOR LOWS IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR INCREASING OUTFLOW
WINDS THU THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED OVER
NWRN CANADA AND A LOW ENTERS THE SRN GULF. SMALL CRAFT NELY WINDS
WILL BE PROBABLE OVER CROSS SOUND...FREDERICK SOUND...AND SUMNER
STRAIT...WITH NLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT EXPECTED IN NRN AND SRN LYNN
CANAL. THOUGH ONLY COARSE DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY AVAILABLE...12 KM NAM SHOWS 20-30 KT OF CROSS BARRIER
FLOW OCCURRING INVOF GASTINEAU CHANNEL. THIS FLOW COMBINED WITH A
ZONE OF FLOW REVERSAL ALOFT SIGNALS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS
IN DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND S DOUGLAS.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NNE INTO THE SRN PANHANDLE THU
NIGHT...WHICH WILL USHER IN STRENGTHENING SLY WINDS AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF MODERATE RAINFALL. THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER SURFACE
CYCLONE OVER THE GULF COMPARED TO THE GFS/GEM. SMOOTHED OUT THESE
DIFFERENCES FOR THE TIME BEING WHILE TRANSITIONING TO THE WPC FRI-
SAT. IN GENERAL...THIS RESULTED IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES FROM
PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
COOLING TREND GOING INTO MID WEEK...AS WELL AS THE ONSET OF THE
NEXT PRECIPITATION EVENT LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ033-036-041>043-051.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 292338
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
338 PM AKDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE WEAKENING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN HAIDA
GWAII THIS EVENING AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED TO THE LEVEL
WHERE DO NOT THINK THUNDER WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS REGION THIS EVENING AN TO THE
CENTRAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
EVEN JUST SOME SPRINKLES. THINK THAT SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL
SLOWLY TAPER OF OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING
FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
SPINNING UP A SURFACE LOW NEAR CAPE SUCKLING. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COASTLINE TO NEAR CAPE SPENSER BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW SHOULD START TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY. THE
TROUGH IS USHERING IN A BURST OF COLDER AIR ALOFT AND THIS WILL
START TO INFILTRATE THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST TUESDAY. THE AIR
ALOFT WILL ADD TO THE INSTABILITY ALLOWING FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT
SHOWERS POSSIBLY EVEN SOME THUNDER BUT WILL NOT PUT IN FORECAST.

WINDS ON SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THIS SPIN UP LOW WILL
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (35 KT) FOR THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE AND
MARINE ZONE 52...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR WINDS TO PICK UP TO SMALL CRAFT
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...UPPER IMPULSE OBSERVED IN WV IMAGERY OVER THE NRN
GULF THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLE
AND INTO NRN B.C. BY TUE NIGHT. COLD AIR ALOFT /NEAR -30C AT 500
MB/ WILL SUPPORT A CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY REGIME WITH THE PASSING
TROUGH. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LOCATED E
OF THE CWA BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER VORT LOBE EXITS THE REGION. A MUCH
COLDER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /-2 TO -8 AT 850 MB/ IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD SE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. WITH SKIES CLEARING QUICKLY OVER YAKUTAT...LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO FALL TO NEAR 30F TUE NIGHT AS WELL AS WED NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES SPREAD ESE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA WED NIGHT...WHICH WILL FAVOR LOWS IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR INCREASING OUTFLOW
WINDS THU THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED OVER
NWRN CANADA AND A LOW ENTERS THE SRN GULF. SMALL CRAFT NELY WINDS
WILL BE PROBABLE OVER CROSS SOUND...FREDERICK SOUND...AND SUMNER
STRAIT...WITH NLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT EXPECTED IN NRN AND SRN LYNN
CANAL. THOUGH ONLY COARSE DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY AVAILABLE...12 KM NAM SHOWS 20-30 KT OF CROSS BARRIER
FLOW OCCURRING INVOF GASTINEAU CHANNEL. THIS FLOW COMBINED WITH A
ZONE OF FLOW REVERSAL ALOFT SIGNALS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS
IN DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND S DOUGLAS.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NNE INTO THE SRN PANHANDLE THU
NIGHT...WHICH WILL USHER IN STRENGTHENING SLY WINDS AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF MODERATE RAINFALL. THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER SURFACE
CYCLONE OVER THE GULF COMPARED TO THE GFS/GEM. SMOOTHED OUT THESE
DIFFERENCES FOR THE TIME BEING WHILE TRANSITIONING TO THE WPC FRI-
SAT. IN GENERAL...THIS RESULTED IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES FROM
PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
COOLING TREND GOING INTO MID WEEK...AS WELL AS THE ONSET OF THE
NEXT PRECIPITATION EVENT LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ033-036-041>043-051.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 291335
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
535 AM AKDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...DRIER NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT ALL THE WET WEATHER YESTERDAY IS NOW
WELL INTO CANADA. ALL THAT WE ARE LEFT WITH IS THE REMAINING
PARENT LOW WHICH IS STILL SPINNING AWAY IN THE SE GULF, AND THE
SHOWERS THAT ARE ROTATING AROUND IT. THE VORTICITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AS WELL AS SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT HAS DESTABILIZED THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE GULF ENOUGH THAT SOME OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY THE LOW OVER THE SE GULF WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD DIXON
ENTRANCE AND FINALLY INTO CANADA THIS AFTERNOON TAKING ITS SHOWERS
WITH IT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROBABLE AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH WITH THE HIGHEST POPS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
EVEN THOUGH THE LOW IS WEAKENING, ENOUGH COOL AIR AND VORTICITY
ALOFT REMAIN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS TO HAPPEN NEAR
THE LOW INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS SUCH STILL HAVE ISOLATED AND SLIGHT
CHANCE WORDING FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE SE GULF AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. NOT MUCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS THE SHOWERS
ARE NOT GROUPED THAT CLOSE TOGETHER. WINDS REMAIN LOW AS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE NEARLY NON EXISTENT.

FOCUS SHIFTS TONIGHT AS A NEW UPPER TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM THE
ALASKAN INTERIOR INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. FIRST OFF THIS
TROUGH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A NEW SURFACE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GULF THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ONLY HELP IN THE SPREAD OF
MORE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THERE IS ALSO A DECENT
AMOUNT OF COOL AIR ALOFT WITH THIS TROUGH THAT MAY MAKE THE PRECIP
TAKE THE FORM OF SHOWERS OR AT LEAST STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
CONVECTION. WAS NOT THAT IMPRESSED WITH WITH THE NUMBERS GIVEN FOR
CONVECTION INDEXES WITH THIS SYSTEM SO LEFT OUT ANY THUNDERSTORM
WORDING FOR NOW. IN ANY CASE YAKUTAT IS THE FIRST TO FEEL THE
EFFECTS WITH RAIN STARTING UP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE RAIN WILL SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY SIGNIFICANT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH ONLY A QUARTER TO HALF
AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN ANY 6 HOUR PERIOD.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
GULF. THE RESULT IS GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR QUITE A BIT OF THE
REST OF THE GULF. MOST OF THIS WIND WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE COAST
TONIGHT AS GRADIENTS DO NOT STAY TIGHT ENOUGH AS YOU GET OVER THE
PANHANDLE. WAVES WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE HIGHER WINDS
IN THE GULF WHIP SEAS UP TO 11 FEET IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
GULF.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MINOR DIFFERENCES ON STRENGTH OF FEATURES REPRESENTED BUT
THEY WERE OFTEN ONLY OFF BY A MB OR TWO FROM EACH OTHER. ELECTED
TO USE THE ECMWF AND GEM FOR OVERALL GUIDANCE TODAY BUT STEERED
MORE TOWARD GFS FOR GULF WINDS.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING DOWN FROM THE AK INTERIOR
WILL BRING IN COLD AIR MASS OVER THE PANHANDLE. 850 MB TEMPS IN THE
-2 TO -6 C RANGE WILL EQUATE TO SURFACE LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S.
THE SURFACE LOW FORMED IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST WEAKENING TO AN OPEN WAVE
TROUGH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WITH
DRY WEATHER FOR THE PANHANDLE MID WEEK. THE COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGH7 WITH A LARGER DIURNAL RANGE FOR
WEDNESDAY FROM DAY TIME HEATING DUE TO THE CLEARER SKIES. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AK GULF
FROM THE PACIFIC WITH INCREASING WINDS WITH UPPER LEVEL SMALL
CRAFT TO GALES DEVELOPING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MIX OF THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL STORM KAMMURI SO WILL HAVE LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE FOR
THE NEXT ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO
MOVE IN WARMER AIR MASS FROM THE PACIFIC SO EXPECTING PRECIP TO
FALL AS RAIN. AS THE CLIPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD WINDS ON TUESDAY
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH WINDS INCREASING BY
MID WEEK DUE TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE INNER
CHANNELS BETWEEN HIGH OVER THE YUKON AND THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW.

MODELS STILL IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH 84
HOURS. THE GEM HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WAS
KEPT AS MAIN MODEL WITH A MIX OF SOME GFS. THIS BLEND WAS VERY
CLOSE TO INHERITED FORECAST SO LITTLE CHANGE RESULTED. FOR THE REST
OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST LEFT THE WPC ENSEMBLE BLEND. IN THESE
LATER PERIODS THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWED SOME LARGE CHANGES WITH THE MOST RECENT RUN DROPPING THE
END OF WEEK LOW CENTER DOWN TO 957 MB, A 20 MB DIFFERENCE FROM THE
GFS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE INITIALLY BUT DROPS
RAPIDLY BY MID WEEK.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042.

&&

$$

EAL/PRB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 291335
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
535 AM AKDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...DRIER NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT ALL THE WET WEATHER YESTERDAY IS NOW
WELL INTO CANADA. ALL THAT WE ARE LEFT WITH IS THE REMAINING
PARENT LOW WHICH IS STILL SPINNING AWAY IN THE SE GULF, AND THE
SHOWERS THAT ARE ROTATING AROUND IT. THE VORTICITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AS WELL AS SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT HAS DESTABILIZED THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE GULF ENOUGH THAT SOME OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY THE LOW OVER THE SE GULF WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD DIXON
ENTRANCE AND FINALLY INTO CANADA THIS AFTERNOON TAKING ITS SHOWERS
WITH IT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROBABLE AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH WITH THE HIGHEST POPS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
EVEN THOUGH THE LOW IS WEAKENING, ENOUGH COOL AIR AND VORTICITY
ALOFT REMAIN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS TO HAPPEN NEAR
THE LOW INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS SUCH STILL HAVE ISOLATED AND SLIGHT
CHANCE WORDING FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE SE GULF AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. NOT MUCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS THE SHOWERS
ARE NOT GROUPED THAT CLOSE TOGETHER. WINDS REMAIN LOW AS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE NEARLY NON EXISTENT.

FOCUS SHIFTS TONIGHT AS A NEW UPPER TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM THE
ALASKAN INTERIOR INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. FIRST OFF THIS
TROUGH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A NEW SURFACE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GULF THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ONLY HELP IN THE SPREAD OF
MORE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THERE IS ALSO A DECENT
AMOUNT OF COOL AIR ALOFT WITH THIS TROUGH THAT MAY MAKE THE PRECIP
TAKE THE FORM OF SHOWERS OR AT LEAST STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
CONVECTION. WAS NOT THAT IMPRESSED WITH WITH THE NUMBERS GIVEN FOR
CONVECTION INDEXES WITH THIS SYSTEM SO LEFT OUT ANY THUNDERSTORM
WORDING FOR NOW. IN ANY CASE YAKUTAT IS THE FIRST TO FEEL THE
EFFECTS WITH RAIN STARTING UP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE RAIN WILL SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY SIGNIFICANT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH ONLY A QUARTER TO HALF
AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN ANY 6 HOUR PERIOD.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
GULF. THE RESULT IS GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR QUITE A BIT OF THE
REST OF THE GULF. MOST OF THIS WIND WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE COAST
TONIGHT AS GRADIENTS DO NOT STAY TIGHT ENOUGH AS YOU GET OVER THE
PANHANDLE. WAVES WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE HIGHER WINDS
IN THE GULF WHIP SEAS UP TO 11 FEET IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
GULF.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MINOR DIFFERENCES ON STRENGTH OF FEATURES REPRESENTED BUT
THEY WERE OFTEN ONLY OFF BY A MB OR TWO FROM EACH OTHER. ELECTED
TO USE THE ECMWF AND GEM FOR OVERALL GUIDANCE TODAY BUT STEERED
MORE TOWARD GFS FOR GULF WINDS.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING DOWN FROM THE AK INTERIOR
WILL BRING IN COLD AIR MASS OVER THE PANHANDLE. 850 MB TEMPS IN THE
-2 TO -6 C RANGE WILL EQUATE TO SURFACE LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S.
THE SURFACE LOW FORMED IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST WEAKENING TO AN OPEN WAVE
TROUGH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WITH
DRY WEATHER FOR THE PANHANDLE MID WEEK. THE COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGH7 WITH A LARGER DIURNAL RANGE FOR
WEDNESDAY FROM DAY TIME HEATING DUE TO THE CLEARER SKIES. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AK GULF
FROM THE PACIFIC WITH INCREASING WINDS WITH UPPER LEVEL SMALL
CRAFT TO GALES DEVELOPING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MIX OF THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL STORM KAMMURI SO WILL HAVE LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE FOR
THE NEXT ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO
MOVE IN WARMER AIR MASS FROM THE PACIFIC SO EXPECTING PRECIP TO
FALL AS RAIN. AS THE CLIPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD WINDS ON TUESDAY
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH WINDS INCREASING BY
MID WEEK DUE TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE INNER
CHANNELS BETWEEN HIGH OVER THE YUKON AND THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW.

MODELS STILL IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH 84
HOURS. THE GEM HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WAS
KEPT AS MAIN MODEL WITH A MIX OF SOME GFS. THIS BLEND WAS VERY
CLOSE TO INHERITED FORECAST SO LITTLE CHANGE RESULTED. FOR THE REST
OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST LEFT THE WPC ENSEMBLE BLEND. IN THESE
LATER PERIODS THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWED SOME LARGE CHANGES WITH THE MOST RECENT RUN DROPPING THE
END OF WEEK LOW CENTER DOWN TO 957 MB, A 20 MB DIFFERENCE FROM THE
GFS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE INITIALLY BUT DROPS
RAPIDLY BY MID WEEK.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042.

&&

$$

EAL/PRB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 282357
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
357 PM AKDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TOWARDS HAIDA GWAII AS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. A WEATHER FRONT
LYING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...RESPONSIBLE FOR STRONG
WINDS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN INSIDE CHANNELS AND A STRONG GALE
THROUGH CLARENCE STRAIT LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED TO
THE EAST DISPLACING THESE STRONG WINDS IN HECATE STRAIT. MEANWHILE
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE HAS RECEIVED 8.56 INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE
4 AM SATURDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH
AND EAST OF FREDERICK SOUND HAS BEEN DOUSED WITH A DELUGE. THE
RAIN HAS STARTED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON FINALLY, AND MODELS
AGREE THAT AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS EAST...THE WIND FLOW WILL BACK
ENOUGH SOUTHWEST TO USHER IT EASTWARD THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
SPREAD COLDER AND A BIT DRIER AIR TO SHUT THE FAUCET DOWN A GOOD
BIT. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND SHUT OFF AS
MUCH UP NORTH DUE TO THE DIFLUENCE ZONE MOVING NORTHWARD AS THE
LOW SLIGHTLY UNDERCUTS THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTH AS THE LOW NEARS DIXON ENTRANCE MONDAY. YAKUTAT MAY
RECEIVE A BREAK MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A SHORT-WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST
OF THE ALASKA RANGE TO SPREAD SOME INSTABILITY SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THE PARENT SURFACE LOW TO THE FRONT BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE
PANHANDLE WINDS MAY RISE A LITTLE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
INSIDE CHANNELS BUT NO MORE THAN 15 KT NORTH OF SUMNER STRAIT.
AFTER THE LOW PASSES SOUTH, WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL
DIMINISH...EVEN DOWN TO LIGHT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS.

ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTHERN INSIDE COMMUNITIES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT WAITED UNTIL MONDAY MORNING FOR THE MARINE AREAS.
THIS WAS IN PART BECAUSE WINDS WILL BE GREATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE
MARINES BEFORE CALMING DOWN BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER, WE STILL DO NOT
THINK FOG WILL BE A MAJOR ISSUE GIVEN THE STABILITY OF THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERE. YET WITH SUCH A SOAKING AND POTENTIAL DECOUPLING WITH
LIGHT WINDS, FELT OBLIGATED TO ADD IT.

FINALLY KEPT THUNDERSTORM IDEA MOVING ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT TO THE
COASTAL AREAS AND SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON CLOSEST
TO THE CORE LOW.

MINOR TWEAKS ONLY IN FORECAST AS OVERALL TREND LOOKED SOLID.
CONFIDENCE GOOD.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
INTERIOR WILL ENHANCE A SURFACE LOW NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND
THEN THIS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO NEAR SITKA BY TUESDAY EVENING.
THE LOW AND THROUGH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST AS WELL. THIS AXIS IS THE LINE
OF THE PRECIPITATION AND WILL BE LEADING THE END OF THE RAIN AND
AND SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. DID
NOT DEAL WITH ANY T STORM CONVECTION THE LOW ON TUE AS IT LOOKS
MINOR BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT IF NEEDED FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST.

EXPECT THE BREAK IN RAIN TO BE SHORT LIVED WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FROM
THE RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM DEVELOPING IN THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC
THAT IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK.
MODELS STILL STRUGGLING SOME ON TRACK AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE SO CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE AT BEST. DO BELIEVE THAT THERE IS
SOME FORMER TROPICAL STORM /KAMMURI I BELIEVE/ BEING PULLED UP
INTO THE MIX FOR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...STIKINE MAY RISE TO NEAR ACTION STAGE BY EARLY
MONDAY. THIS RIVER WILL BE MONITORED THIS EVENING FOR TRENDS AS NW
BC ALSO RECEIVED A GOOD BIT OF RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
LANDSLIDE THREAT STARTING TO DIMINISH OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN INNER
CHANNELS AS WINDS SUBSIDE. RIVERS CONTINUING TO RISE OVER FISH
CREEK NEAR KETCHIKAN AND SOME OF THE OTHER STREAMS, BUT RATES OF
RAINFALL STARTING TO DIMINISH AS FRONT PUSHES TO EAST.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043.

&&

$$

JWA/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 282357
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
357 PM AKDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TOWARDS HAIDA GWAII AS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. A WEATHER FRONT
LYING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...RESPONSIBLE FOR STRONG
WINDS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN INSIDE CHANNELS AND A STRONG GALE
THROUGH CLARENCE STRAIT LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED TO
THE EAST DISPLACING THESE STRONG WINDS IN HECATE STRAIT. MEANWHILE
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE HAS RECEIVED 8.56 INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE
4 AM SATURDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH
AND EAST OF FREDERICK SOUND HAS BEEN DOUSED WITH A DELUGE. THE
RAIN HAS STARTED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON FINALLY, AND MODELS
AGREE THAT AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS EAST...THE WIND FLOW WILL BACK
ENOUGH SOUTHWEST TO USHER IT EASTWARD THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
SPREAD COLDER AND A BIT DRIER AIR TO SHUT THE FAUCET DOWN A GOOD
BIT. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND SHUT OFF AS
MUCH UP NORTH DUE TO THE DIFLUENCE ZONE MOVING NORTHWARD AS THE
LOW SLIGHTLY UNDERCUTS THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTH AS THE LOW NEARS DIXON ENTRANCE MONDAY. YAKUTAT MAY
RECEIVE A BREAK MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A SHORT-WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST
OF THE ALASKA RANGE TO SPREAD SOME INSTABILITY SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THE PARENT SURFACE LOW TO THE FRONT BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE
PANHANDLE WINDS MAY RISE A LITTLE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
INSIDE CHANNELS BUT NO MORE THAN 15 KT NORTH OF SUMNER STRAIT.
AFTER THE LOW PASSES SOUTH, WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL
DIMINISH...EVEN DOWN TO LIGHT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS.

ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTHERN INSIDE COMMUNITIES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT WAITED UNTIL MONDAY MORNING FOR THE MARINE AREAS.
THIS WAS IN PART BECAUSE WINDS WILL BE GREATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE
MARINES BEFORE CALMING DOWN BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER, WE STILL DO NOT
THINK FOG WILL BE A MAJOR ISSUE GIVEN THE STABILITY OF THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERE. YET WITH SUCH A SOAKING AND POTENTIAL DECOUPLING WITH
LIGHT WINDS, FELT OBLIGATED TO ADD IT.

FINALLY KEPT THUNDERSTORM IDEA MOVING ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT TO THE
COASTAL AREAS AND SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON CLOSEST
TO THE CORE LOW.

MINOR TWEAKS ONLY IN FORECAST AS OVERALL TREND LOOKED SOLID.
CONFIDENCE GOOD.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
INTERIOR WILL ENHANCE A SURFACE LOW NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND
THEN THIS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO NEAR SITKA BY TUESDAY EVENING.
THE LOW AND THROUGH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST AS WELL. THIS AXIS IS THE LINE
OF THE PRECIPITATION AND WILL BE LEADING THE END OF THE RAIN AND
AND SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. DID
NOT DEAL WITH ANY T STORM CONVECTION THE LOW ON TUE AS IT LOOKS
MINOR BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT IF NEEDED FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST.

EXPECT THE BREAK IN RAIN TO BE SHORT LIVED WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FROM
THE RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM DEVELOPING IN THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC
THAT IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK.
MODELS STILL STRUGGLING SOME ON TRACK AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE SO CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE AT BEST. DO BELIEVE THAT THERE IS
SOME FORMER TROPICAL STORM /KAMMURI I BELIEVE/ BEING PULLED UP
INTO THE MIX FOR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...STIKINE MAY RISE TO NEAR ACTION STAGE BY EARLY
MONDAY. THIS RIVER WILL BE MONITORED THIS EVENING FOR TRENDS AS NW
BC ALSO RECEIVED A GOOD BIT OF RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
LANDSLIDE THREAT STARTING TO DIMINISH OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN INNER
CHANNELS AS WINDS SUBSIDE. RIVERS CONTINUING TO RISE OVER FISH
CREEK NEAR KETCHIKAN AND SOME OF THE OTHER STREAMS, BUT RATES OF
RAINFALL STARTING TO DIMINISH AS FRONT PUSHES TO EAST.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043.

&&

$$

JWA/BEZENEK

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