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000
FXAK67 PAJK 252320
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
320 PM AKDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE AK GULF
IN THE PROCESS OF REBUILDING AND WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE FEATURE
FOR SE AK. AN UPPER LOW FORMING NEAR KODIAK WILL BEGIN TO TRACK
EASTWARD WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH NEARING THE PANHANDLE
COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK VORT MAX OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE KEPT IN ORE CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY NEAR AKZ029 BUT WILL
MOVE OFF THE THE EAST AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES IN. SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING MARINE STRATUS BAND OVER THE AK
GULF WITH CLEARING SKIES OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE MARINE LAYER
MOVED INLAND WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING. A FEW LOCATIONS
HUNG ONTO THESE LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT AS OF NOW MOST
LOCATIONS ARE UNDER CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES IN WILL SEE COMBINATION OF THE MARINER LAYER MOVE
INLAND ALONG WITH HIGHER CLOUDS COVERING MOST OF THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL BE MORE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS REACHING THE PANHANDLE COAST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY NEAR AKZ017. COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN WITH THE
SYSTEM, 850 MB TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE 4 TO 6 C RANGE WILL DROP
INTO THE -2 TO 2 C RANGE. AIR MASS WILL BE STABLE ENOUGH INITIALLY
FOR RAIN TO BE STRATIFORM.

WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR INNER CHANNEL OCEAN
ENTRANCES HAVE BEEN BIT SLOWER TO PICK UP ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
BUILDING RIDGE. TONED SOME SPOTS BACK ABOUT 5 KT BUT BY TUESDAY DO
EXPECT THESE WINDS TO PICK UP TO 20 KT WITH SMALL CRAFT NEAR CROSS
SOUND AND POTENTIAL TIP JET NEAR CAPE DECISION. WITH A HEAT LOW
OVER THE YUKON SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AK GULF
HIGH WILL BRING UP WINDS OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
CLEARING SKIES AND INCREASED THERMAL GRADIENT. TUESDAY WILL WILL
BE LESS THERMALLY DRIVEN DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MORE
FROM GRADIENT FLOW.

MODELS NOT SHOWING TOO MUCH VARIATION FORM PREVIOUS RUNS. BLENDED
IN GEM WITH INHERITED GRIDS AS IT WAS A NICE MID POINT BETWEEN THE
NAM, WHICH WAS PREFERRED FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS, THEN THE ECMWF,
WHICH WAS PREFERRED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
EXTENT OF MARINE LAYER MOVING INLAND AN HOW THE UPPER LOW EFFECTS
IT. RESULTING CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE DOMINO EFFECT ON TOMORROWS
HIGH TEMPS AND AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LOW SHOULD HEAD E INTO THE PANHANDLE TUE NIGHT
AND WED...THEN DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SE AND OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
THU NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO REESTABLISH CONTROL OVER THE
AREA FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE AREA IN A N-NW FLOW
ALOFT. MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO NOT A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN THEN. ENDED UP USING A BLEND OF
THE 12Z GEM AND EC FOR TUE NIGHT-THU EVENING...THEN MAINLY WPC FOR
LATE THU NIGHT ONWARD...ALTHOUGH DID BLEND IN SOME EC FOR THU
NIGHT-FRI NIGHT. TEMPS WED WILL LIKELY GET HELD DOWN INTO THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S GIVEN AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP POTENTIAL.

LOOKS LIKE INCREASING PRECIP THREAT FOR MAINLY THE NRN AND CENTRAL
AREAS TUE NIGHT AND WED AS UPPER LOW MOVES IN AND ONSHORE LOW
LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES. BUMPED POPS UP SOME...BUT STILL LIMITED THEM
TO CHANCE LEVELS AT MOST FOR TUE NIGHT-WED. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED
TO BUMP THEM UP FURTHER AS MODELS HONE IN ON EXACT TRACK OF UPPER
LOW AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT...BUT LOOKING LIKE
BEST PRECIP THREAT WILL BE IN THE PAJN-PAEL CORRIDOR.

FOR WED NIGHT-THU...MODELS SUGGEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL WRAP
AROUND THE UPPER LOW INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT WITH MORE ORGANIZED
PRECIP MOVING IN FROM THE NE. MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE THIS PRECIP
BAND MOVES IN...SO ENDED UP GOING WITH A LARGER AREA OF CHANCE
POPS TO HANDLE THIS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WED NIGHT.
LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO BOOST POPS EVEN MORE FOR THIS SYSTEM.
THINK WHATEVER PRECIP DOES COME ACROSS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY
THU AS SHORTWAVE DIVES S AND OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPS THU SHOULD BE
WARMER AS CLOUDS DECREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MOST
PLACES GETTING WELL INTO THE 60S OVER THE INNER CHANNELS.

LOOKING RATHER DRY THU NIGHT INTO AT LEAST SAT...WITH WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR MARINE LAYER WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SFC HIGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE GULF...BUT SHARPNESS OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MAY KEEP MOST OF
IT OFFSHORE. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS FOR
THIS TIME FRAME...WITH SOME 70S RETURNING TO THE INNER CHANNELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS AFTER SAT DUE TO INCREASING DIFFERENCES
AMONGST THE MODELS ON POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE N OR NW. WPC SEEMED LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE AT
THIS POINT. MAY SEE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY REACHES SE AK. THIS MAY ALSO CAUSE TEMPS TO BE A
BIT COOLER AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...WARMER TEMPERATURES THE PAST DAYS AND INCREASED SNOW
MELT HAVE RAISED RIVER LEVELS TO NEAR BANKFULL, BUT NOT OVER.
RIVERS SHOWING THIS DIURNAL TREND HAVE BEEN THE CHILKAT, TAIYA AND
TATSHENSHINI. WITH ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL LOW, DECREASING SNOW
LEVELS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER RIVER LEVELS WILL DROP OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022.

&&

$$

PRB/RWT

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 252320
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
320 PM AKDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE AK GULF
IN THE PROCESS OF REBUILDING AND WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE FEATURE
FOR SE AK. AN UPPER LOW FORMING NEAR KODIAK WILL BEGIN TO TRACK
EASTWARD WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH NEARING THE PANHANDLE
COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK VORT MAX OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE KEPT IN ORE CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY NEAR AKZ029 BUT WILL
MOVE OFF THE THE EAST AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES IN. SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING MARINE STRATUS BAND OVER THE AK
GULF WITH CLEARING SKIES OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE MARINE LAYER
MOVED INLAND WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING. A FEW LOCATIONS
HUNG ONTO THESE LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT AS OF NOW MOST
LOCATIONS ARE UNDER CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES IN WILL SEE COMBINATION OF THE MARINER LAYER MOVE
INLAND ALONG WITH HIGHER CLOUDS COVERING MOST OF THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL BE MORE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS REACHING THE PANHANDLE COAST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY NEAR AKZ017. COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN WITH THE
SYSTEM, 850 MB TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE 4 TO 6 C RANGE WILL DROP
INTO THE -2 TO 2 C RANGE. AIR MASS WILL BE STABLE ENOUGH INITIALLY
FOR RAIN TO BE STRATIFORM.

WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR INNER CHANNEL OCEAN
ENTRANCES HAVE BEEN BIT SLOWER TO PICK UP ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
BUILDING RIDGE. TONED SOME SPOTS BACK ABOUT 5 KT BUT BY TUESDAY DO
EXPECT THESE WINDS TO PICK UP TO 20 KT WITH SMALL CRAFT NEAR CROSS
SOUND AND POTENTIAL TIP JET NEAR CAPE DECISION. WITH A HEAT LOW
OVER THE YUKON SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AK GULF
HIGH WILL BRING UP WINDS OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
CLEARING SKIES AND INCREASED THERMAL GRADIENT. TUESDAY WILL WILL
BE LESS THERMALLY DRIVEN DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MORE
FROM GRADIENT FLOW.

MODELS NOT SHOWING TOO MUCH VARIATION FORM PREVIOUS RUNS. BLENDED
IN GEM WITH INHERITED GRIDS AS IT WAS A NICE MID POINT BETWEEN THE
NAM, WHICH WAS PREFERRED FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS, THEN THE ECMWF,
WHICH WAS PREFERRED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
EXTENT OF MARINE LAYER MOVING INLAND AN HOW THE UPPER LOW EFFECTS
IT. RESULTING CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE DOMINO EFFECT ON TOMORROWS
HIGH TEMPS AND AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LOW SHOULD HEAD E INTO THE PANHANDLE TUE NIGHT
AND WED...THEN DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SE AND OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
THU NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO REESTABLISH CONTROL OVER THE
AREA FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE AREA IN A N-NW FLOW
ALOFT. MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO NOT A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN THEN. ENDED UP USING A BLEND OF
THE 12Z GEM AND EC FOR TUE NIGHT-THU EVENING...THEN MAINLY WPC FOR
LATE THU NIGHT ONWARD...ALTHOUGH DID BLEND IN SOME EC FOR THU
NIGHT-FRI NIGHT. TEMPS WED WILL LIKELY GET HELD DOWN INTO THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S GIVEN AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP POTENTIAL.

LOOKS LIKE INCREASING PRECIP THREAT FOR MAINLY THE NRN AND CENTRAL
AREAS TUE NIGHT AND WED AS UPPER LOW MOVES IN AND ONSHORE LOW
LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES. BUMPED POPS UP SOME...BUT STILL LIMITED THEM
TO CHANCE LEVELS AT MOST FOR TUE NIGHT-WED. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED
TO BUMP THEM UP FURTHER AS MODELS HONE IN ON EXACT TRACK OF UPPER
LOW AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT...BUT LOOKING LIKE
BEST PRECIP THREAT WILL BE IN THE PAJN-PAEL CORRIDOR.

FOR WED NIGHT-THU...MODELS SUGGEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL WRAP
AROUND THE UPPER LOW INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT WITH MORE ORGANIZED
PRECIP MOVING IN FROM THE NE. MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE THIS PRECIP
BAND MOVES IN...SO ENDED UP GOING WITH A LARGER AREA OF CHANCE
POPS TO HANDLE THIS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WED NIGHT.
LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO BOOST POPS EVEN MORE FOR THIS SYSTEM.
THINK WHATEVER PRECIP DOES COME ACROSS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY
THU AS SHORTWAVE DIVES S AND OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPS THU SHOULD BE
WARMER AS CLOUDS DECREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MOST
PLACES GETTING WELL INTO THE 60S OVER THE INNER CHANNELS.

LOOKING RATHER DRY THU NIGHT INTO AT LEAST SAT...WITH WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR MARINE LAYER WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SFC HIGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE GULF...BUT SHARPNESS OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MAY KEEP MOST OF
IT OFFSHORE. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS FOR
THIS TIME FRAME...WITH SOME 70S RETURNING TO THE INNER CHANNELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS AFTER SAT DUE TO INCREASING DIFFERENCES
AMONGST THE MODELS ON POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE N OR NW. WPC SEEMED LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE AT
THIS POINT. MAY SEE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY REACHES SE AK. THIS MAY ALSO CAUSE TEMPS TO BE A
BIT COOLER AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...WARMER TEMPERATURES THE PAST DAYS AND INCREASED SNOW
MELT HAVE RAISED RIVER LEVELS TO NEAR BANKFULL, BUT NOT OVER.
RIVERS SHOWING THIS DIURNAL TREND HAVE BEEN THE CHILKAT, TAIYA AND
TATSHENSHINI. WITH ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL LOW, DECREASING SNOW
LEVELS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER RIVER LEVELS WILL DROP OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022.

&&

$$

PRB/RWT

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 251353
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
553 AM AKDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...CURRENTLY LOW STRATUS IS THE ONLY IMMEDIATE ISSUE
AND EVEN IT IS LESS WIDESPREAD THAN YESTERDAY...AFFECTING YAKUTAT,
PETERSBURG, WRANGELL, AND KLAWOCK WITH CIGS LESS THAN 2000FT AND
AT SITKA, SKAGWAY AND HAINES AROUND 3500. STRATUS ALSO IN THE
VICINITY OF KETCHIKAN PER WEB CAMS. GENERAL SLOW RECOVERY EXPECTED
AT MOST OF THESE AREAS TODAY AS LARGE- SCALE WIND FORCING IS
NIL...DRY PERIOD CONTINUES. OVERALL HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
BEGINNING TO CHANGE SLOWLY BUT GRADUALLY ALOFT...WITH INCREASED
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN FOR A COUPLE OF WEEKS AS
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. IMPACT
ON LOCAL SURFACE WEATHER HOWEVER IS RELATIVELY MINOR DURING THIS
PERIOD. RECENT COOLING TREND WITH SOME AREAS SEEING MORE CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO BE 60 TO 65 INLAND
AWAY FROM THE MARINE LAYERS AND MIN RH VALUES 40-60%. AS
ANTICIPATED THE ONLY AREA WITH EVEN A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE
INITIAL PASSING WAVE ALOFT IS YAKUTAT AND THIS IS LOOKING MARGINAL
AT THIS POINT WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT QPF VALUES.
OTHERWISE...GRADIENTS REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH THE ONLY
QUESTION BEING THE EXTENT OF THE MARINE LAYER INFLUX MON NIGHT. ON
SAT NIGHT ONLY YAKUTAT, GUSTAVUS, ANNETTE, ELFIN COVE AND THE
PETERSBURG/WRANGELL AREAS WERE AFFECTED BRIEFLY BY LIGHT FOG...AND
AS STATED ABOVE NO FOG REPORTS FROM LAST NIGHT HAVE COME IN. FOR
TONIGHT SETTLED ON AREAS OF FOG IMPACTING COASTAL REGIONS FROM
AROUND SITKA SOUTHWARD AND AROUND INTO ZONE 28 FOR THE 09-12Z
PERIOD TUE...DO NOT SEE THE FORCING FOR AN ONSHORE PUSH OVER
REGION NORTH OF SITKA THIS EVENING AND FOR THE MENTIONED AREAS
JUST A DIURNAL CYCLE. MEANWHILE AFTERNOON SKIES ELSEWHERE SHOULD
BE PARTLY CLOUDY AT WORST THIS AFT. THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS NIL
AS THE COOL AIR ALOFT HAS MOVED ON FURTHER EAST AND AREA MAX TEMPS
ARE CLOSER TO AVERAGE COMPARED TO A FEW DAYS AGO.

UPDATED DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS WITH AN EC/NAM BLEND FOR
THE PERIOD WITH WIND TWEAKS...WENT WITH 20KTS MAX IN CROSS SOUND
AND NORTHERN LYNN AS THESE AREAS DID NOT SEE 25KTS LAST EVENING
AND DON`T SEE A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE FORCING. OFFSHORE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ONLY ~15-20KTS NWLY FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES
ALSO. HYDRO ISSUES...FLOOD THREAT FROM SNOW MELT HAS TEMPORARILY
RELAXED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME MAXS FOR THE CHILKAT AND
TAIYA RIVERS AND ANY ISSUES WITH THE STIKINE SHOULD BE MIDWEEK AT
THE EARLIEST. DIURNAL MAXS AT THE CHILKAT AND TAIYA HAVE BEEN
PUSHING ACTION LEVELS FOR A FEW DAYS BUT LEVELED OFF SUN EVENING.

.LONG TERM...A WEAK LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF THE GULF AND
WEST OF WASHINGTON STATE WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST TO THE
SOUTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL BE TRANSITING
THROUGH A REGION OF FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT ALOFT, WILL WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE PANHANDLE. STILL, MODELS ARE DEPICTING A CLEAR,
ALBEIT SMALL, PRECIP FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH IT WHICH IS SLIGHTLY
LARGER IN EXTENT THAN IN LAST NIGHT`S MODELS. CONTINUE THE TREND
FROM YESTERDAY AND HAVE EXPANDED POPS, BUT STILL KEEPING THINGS
WELL IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. QPF VALUES ARE CORRESPONDINGLY LOW
AND IF IT DOES ACTUALLY PRODUCE RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA, IT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY MUCH. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE.

AFTER THE PASSING OF THIS WEAK LOW, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE GULF AND THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE
OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, RETURNING SOUTHEAST
ALASKA TO A PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST TWO WEEKS.
ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND LOCATION OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL PROMOTE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING THE MARINE LAYER
FURTHER INLAND AND RESULTING IN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL THEN SHIFT
SLIGHTLY WEST ON FRIDAY, PROMOTING A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER THAT
SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EXISTING LONG RANGE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, SO CHANGES LIMITED
TO POP WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND PRESSURE THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BLENDED SREF WITH EXISTING POP FIELDS.
USED A BLEND OF GEM AND ECMWF FOR PRESSURE. OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

WESLEY/FRITSCH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 251353
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
553 AM AKDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...CURRENTLY LOW STRATUS IS THE ONLY IMMEDIATE ISSUE
AND EVEN IT IS LESS WIDESPREAD THAN YESTERDAY...AFFECTING YAKUTAT,
PETERSBURG, WRANGELL, AND KLAWOCK WITH CIGS LESS THAN 2000FT AND
AT SITKA, SKAGWAY AND HAINES AROUND 3500. STRATUS ALSO IN THE
VICINITY OF KETCHIKAN PER WEB CAMS. GENERAL SLOW RECOVERY EXPECTED
AT MOST OF THESE AREAS TODAY AS LARGE- SCALE WIND FORCING IS
NIL...DRY PERIOD CONTINUES. OVERALL HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
BEGINNING TO CHANGE SLOWLY BUT GRADUALLY ALOFT...WITH INCREASED
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN FOR A COUPLE OF WEEKS AS
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. IMPACT
ON LOCAL SURFACE WEATHER HOWEVER IS RELATIVELY MINOR DURING THIS
PERIOD. RECENT COOLING TREND WITH SOME AREAS SEEING MORE CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO BE 60 TO 65 INLAND
AWAY FROM THE MARINE LAYERS AND MIN RH VALUES 40-60%. AS
ANTICIPATED THE ONLY AREA WITH EVEN A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE
INITIAL PASSING WAVE ALOFT IS YAKUTAT AND THIS IS LOOKING MARGINAL
AT THIS POINT WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT QPF VALUES.
OTHERWISE...GRADIENTS REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH THE ONLY
QUESTION BEING THE EXTENT OF THE MARINE LAYER INFLUX MON NIGHT. ON
SAT NIGHT ONLY YAKUTAT, GUSTAVUS, ANNETTE, ELFIN COVE AND THE
PETERSBURG/WRANGELL AREAS WERE AFFECTED BRIEFLY BY LIGHT FOG...AND
AS STATED ABOVE NO FOG REPORTS FROM LAST NIGHT HAVE COME IN. FOR
TONIGHT SETTLED ON AREAS OF FOG IMPACTING COASTAL REGIONS FROM
AROUND SITKA SOUTHWARD AND AROUND INTO ZONE 28 FOR THE 09-12Z
PERIOD TUE...DO NOT SEE THE FORCING FOR AN ONSHORE PUSH OVER
REGION NORTH OF SITKA THIS EVENING AND FOR THE MENTIONED AREAS
JUST A DIURNAL CYCLE. MEANWHILE AFTERNOON SKIES ELSEWHERE SHOULD
BE PARTLY CLOUDY AT WORST THIS AFT. THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS NIL
AS THE COOL AIR ALOFT HAS MOVED ON FURTHER EAST AND AREA MAX TEMPS
ARE CLOSER TO AVERAGE COMPARED TO A FEW DAYS AGO.

UPDATED DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS WITH AN EC/NAM BLEND FOR
THE PERIOD WITH WIND TWEAKS...WENT WITH 20KTS MAX IN CROSS SOUND
AND NORTHERN LYNN AS THESE AREAS DID NOT SEE 25KTS LAST EVENING
AND DON`T SEE A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE FORCING. OFFSHORE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ONLY ~15-20KTS NWLY FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES
ALSO. HYDRO ISSUES...FLOOD THREAT FROM SNOW MELT HAS TEMPORARILY
RELAXED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME MAXS FOR THE CHILKAT AND
TAIYA RIVERS AND ANY ISSUES WITH THE STIKINE SHOULD BE MIDWEEK AT
THE EARLIEST. DIURNAL MAXS AT THE CHILKAT AND TAIYA HAVE BEEN
PUSHING ACTION LEVELS FOR A FEW DAYS BUT LEVELED OFF SUN EVENING.

.LONG TERM...A WEAK LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF THE GULF AND
WEST OF WASHINGTON STATE WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST TO THE
SOUTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL BE TRANSITING
THROUGH A REGION OF FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT ALOFT, WILL WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE PANHANDLE. STILL, MODELS ARE DEPICTING A CLEAR,
ALBEIT SMALL, PRECIP FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH IT WHICH IS SLIGHTLY
LARGER IN EXTENT THAN IN LAST NIGHT`S MODELS. CONTINUE THE TREND
FROM YESTERDAY AND HAVE EXPANDED POPS, BUT STILL KEEPING THINGS
WELL IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. QPF VALUES ARE CORRESPONDINGLY LOW
AND IF IT DOES ACTUALLY PRODUCE RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA, IT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY MUCH. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE.

AFTER THE PASSING OF THIS WEAK LOW, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE GULF AND THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE
OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, RETURNING SOUTHEAST
ALASKA TO A PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST TWO WEEKS.
ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND LOCATION OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL PROMOTE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING THE MARINE LAYER
FURTHER INLAND AND RESULTING IN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL THEN SHIFT
SLIGHTLY WEST ON FRIDAY, PROMOTING A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER THAT
SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EXISTING LONG RANGE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, SO CHANGES LIMITED
TO POP WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND PRESSURE THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BLENDED SREF WITH EXISTING POP FIELDS.
USED A BLEND OF GEM AND ECMWF FOR PRESSURE. OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

WESLEY/FRITSCH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 251353
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
553 AM AKDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...CURRENTLY LOW STRATUS IS THE ONLY IMMEDIATE ISSUE
AND EVEN IT IS LESS WIDESPREAD THAN YESTERDAY...AFFECTING YAKUTAT,
PETERSBURG, WRANGELL, AND KLAWOCK WITH CIGS LESS THAN 2000FT AND
AT SITKA, SKAGWAY AND HAINES AROUND 3500. STRATUS ALSO IN THE
VICINITY OF KETCHIKAN PER WEB CAMS. GENERAL SLOW RECOVERY EXPECTED
AT MOST OF THESE AREAS TODAY AS LARGE- SCALE WIND FORCING IS
NIL...DRY PERIOD CONTINUES. OVERALL HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
BEGINNING TO CHANGE SLOWLY BUT GRADUALLY ALOFT...WITH INCREASED
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN FOR A COUPLE OF WEEKS AS
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. IMPACT
ON LOCAL SURFACE WEATHER HOWEVER IS RELATIVELY MINOR DURING THIS
PERIOD. RECENT COOLING TREND WITH SOME AREAS SEEING MORE CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO BE 60 TO 65 INLAND
AWAY FROM THE MARINE LAYERS AND MIN RH VALUES 40-60%. AS
ANTICIPATED THE ONLY AREA WITH EVEN A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE
INITIAL PASSING WAVE ALOFT IS YAKUTAT AND THIS IS LOOKING MARGINAL
AT THIS POINT WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT QPF VALUES.
OTHERWISE...GRADIENTS REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH THE ONLY
QUESTION BEING THE EXTENT OF THE MARINE LAYER INFLUX MON NIGHT. ON
SAT NIGHT ONLY YAKUTAT, GUSTAVUS, ANNETTE, ELFIN COVE AND THE
PETERSBURG/WRANGELL AREAS WERE AFFECTED BRIEFLY BY LIGHT FOG...AND
AS STATED ABOVE NO FOG REPORTS FROM LAST NIGHT HAVE COME IN. FOR
TONIGHT SETTLED ON AREAS OF FOG IMPACTING COASTAL REGIONS FROM
AROUND SITKA SOUTHWARD AND AROUND INTO ZONE 28 FOR THE 09-12Z
PERIOD TUE...DO NOT SEE THE FORCING FOR AN ONSHORE PUSH OVER
REGION NORTH OF SITKA THIS EVENING AND FOR THE MENTIONED AREAS
JUST A DIURNAL CYCLE. MEANWHILE AFTERNOON SKIES ELSEWHERE SHOULD
BE PARTLY CLOUDY AT WORST THIS AFT. THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS NIL
AS THE COOL AIR ALOFT HAS MOVED ON FURTHER EAST AND AREA MAX TEMPS
ARE CLOSER TO AVERAGE COMPARED TO A FEW DAYS AGO.

UPDATED DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS WITH AN EC/NAM BLEND FOR
THE PERIOD WITH WIND TWEAKS...WENT WITH 20KTS MAX IN CROSS SOUND
AND NORTHERN LYNN AS THESE AREAS DID NOT SEE 25KTS LAST EVENING
AND DON`T SEE A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE FORCING. OFFSHORE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ONLY ~15-20KTS NWLY FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES
ALSO. HYDRO ISSUES...FLOOD THREAT FROM SNOW MELT HAS TEMPORARILY
RELAXED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME MAXS FOR THE CHILKAT AND
TAIYA RIVERS AND ANY ISSUES WITH THE STIKINE SHOULD BE MIDWEEK AT
THE EARLIEST. DIURNAL MAXS AT THE CHILKAT AND TAIYA HAVE BEEN
PUSHING ACTION LEVELS FOR A FEW DAYS BUT LEVELED OFF SUN EVENING.

.LONG TERM...A WEAK LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF THE GULF AND
WEST OF WASHINGTON STATE WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST TO THE
SOUTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL BE TRANSITING
THROUGH A REGION OF FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT ALOFT, WILL WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE PANHANDLE. STILL, MODELS ARE DEPICTING A CLEAR,
ALBEIT SMALL, PRECIP FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH IT WHICH IS SLIGHTLY
LARGER IN EXTENT THAN IN LAST NIGHT`S MODELS. CONTINUE THE TREND
FROM YESTERDAY AND HAVE EXPANDED POPS, BUT STILL KEEPING THINGS
WELL IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. QPF VALUES ARE CORRESPONDINGLY LOW
AND IF IT DOES ACTUALLY PRODUCE RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA, IT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY MUCH. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE.

AFTER THE PASSING OF THIS WEAK LOW, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE GULF AND THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE
OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, RETURNING SOUTHEAST
ALASKA TO A PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST TWO WEEKS.
ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND LOCATION OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL PROMOTE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING THE MARINE LAYER
FURTHER INLAND AND RESULTING IN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL THEN SHIFT
SLIGHTLY WEST ON FRIDAY, PROMOTING A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER THAT
SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EXISTING LONG RANGE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, SO CHANGES LIMITED
TO POP WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND PRESSURE THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BLENDED SREF WITH EXISTING POP FIELDS.
USED A BLEND OF GEM AND ECMWF FOR PRESSURE. OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

WESLEY/FRITSCH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 251353
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
553 AM AKDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...CURRENTLY LOW STRATUS IS THE ONLY IMMEDIATE ISSUE
AND EVEN IT IS LESS WIDESPREAD THAN YESTERDAY...AFFECTING YAKUTAT,
PETERSBURG, WRANGELL, AND KLAWOCK WITH CIGS LESS THAN 2000FT AND
AT SITKA, SKAGWAY AND HAINES AROUND 3500. STRATUS ALSO IN THE
VICINITY OF KETCHIKAN PER WEB CAMS. GENERAL SLOW RECOVERY EXPECTED
AT MOST OF THESE AREAS TODAY AS LARGE- SCALE WIND FORCING IS
NIL...DRY PERIOD CONTINUES. OVERALL HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
BEGINNING TO CHANGE SLOWLY BUT GRADUALLY ALOFT...WITH INCREASED
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN FOR A COUPLE OF WEEKS AS
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. IMPACT
ON LOCAL SURFACE WEATHER HOWEVER IS RELATIVELY MINOR DURING THIS
PERIOD. RECENT COOLING TREND WITH SOME AREAS SEEING MORE CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO BE 60 TO 65 INLAND
AWAY FROM THE MARINE LAYERS AND MIN RH VALUES 40-60%. AS
ANTICIPATED THE ONLY AREA WITH EVEN A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE
INITIAL PASSING WAVE ALOFT IS YAKUTAT AND THIS IS LOOKING MARGINAL
AT THIS POINT WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT QPF VALUES.
OTHERWISE...GRADIENTS REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH THE ONLY
QUESTION BEING THE EXTENT OF THE MARINE LAYER INFLUX MON NIGHT. ON
SAT NIGHT ONLY YAKUTAT, GUSTAVUS, ANNETTE, ELFIN COVE AND THE
PETERSBURG/WRANGELL AREAS WERE AFFECTED BRIEFLY BY LIGHT FOG...AND
AS STATED ABOVE NO FOG REPORTS FROM LAST NIGHT HAVE COME IN. FOR
TONIGHT SETTLED ON AREAS OF FOG IMPACTING COASTAL REGIONS FROM
AROUND SITKA SOUTHWARD AND AROUND INTO ZONE 28 FOR THE 09-12Z
PERIOD TUE...DO NOT SEE THE FORCING FOR AN ONSHORE PUSH OVER
REGION NORTH OF SITKA THIS EVENING AND FOR THE MENTIONED AREAS
JUST A DIURNAL CYCLE. MEANWHILE AFTERNOON SKIES ELSEWHERE SHOULD
BE PARTLY CLOUDY AT WORST THIS AFT. THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS NIL
AS THE COOL AIR ALOFT HAS MOVED ON FURTHER EAST AND AREA MAX TEMPS
ARE CLOSER TO AVERAGE COMPARED TO A FEW DAYS AGO.

UPDATED DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS WITH AN EC/NAM BLEND FOR
THE PERIOD WITH WIND TWEAKS...WENT WITH 20KTS MAX IN CROSS SOUND
AND NORTHERN LYNN AS THESE AREAS DID NOT SEE 25KTS LAST EVENING
AND DON`T SEE A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE FORCING. OFFSHORE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ONLY ~15-20KTS NWLY FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES
ALSO. HYDRO ISSUES...FLOOD THREAT FROM SNOW MELT HAS TEMPORARILY
RELAXED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME MAXS FOR THE CHILKAT AND
TAIYA RIVERS AND ANY ISSUES WITH THE STIKINE SHOULD BE MIDWEEK AT
THE EARLIEST. DIURNAL MAXS AT THE CHILKAT AND TAIYA HAVE BEEN
PUSHING ACTION LEVELS FOR A FEW DAYS BUT LEVELED OFF SUN EVENING.

.LONG TERM...A WEAK LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF THE GULF AND
WEST OF WASHINGTON STATE WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST TO THE
SOUTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL BE TRANSITING
THROUGH A REGION OF FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT ALOFT, WILL WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE PANHANDLE. STILL, MODELS ARE DEPICTING A CLEAR,
ALBEIT SMALL, PRECIP FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH IT WHICH IS SLIGHTLY
LARGER IN EXTENT THAN IN LAST NIGHT`S MODELS. CONTINUE THE TREND
FROM YESTERDAY AND HAVE EXPANDED POPS, BUT STILL KEEPING THINGS
WELL IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. QPF VALUES ARE CORRESPONDINGLY LOW
AND IF IT DOES ACTUALLY PRODUCE RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA, IT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY MUCH. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE.

AFTER THE PASSING OF THIS WEAK LOW, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE GULF AND THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE
OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, RETURNING SOUTHEAST
ALASKA TO A PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST TWO WEEKS.
ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND LOCATION OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL PROMOTE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING THE MARINE LAYER
FURTHER INLAND AND RESULTING IN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL THEN SHIFT
SLIGHTLY WEST ON FRIDAY, PROMOTING A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER THAT
SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EXISTING LONG RANGE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, SO CHANGES LIMITED
TO POP WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND PRESSURE THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BLENDED SREF WITH EXISTING POP FIELDS.
USED A BLEND OF GEM AND ECMWF FOR PRESSURE. OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

WESLEY/FRITSCH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 242246
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
246 PM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...MAIN STORY TODAY IS THE EXTENSIVE MARINE LAYER
ACROSS THE GULF AND PANHANDLE. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS INFILTRATED ALL
OF THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND
THERE IT MOSTLY TOOK THE FORM OF LOW STRATUS. SATELLITE IMAGES
AROUND NOON REVEAL THAT THE CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BURN OFF OVER
CHATHAM STRAIT, BARANOF ISLAND, CHICHAGOF ISLAND, AND SOUTHERN
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND WITH THE HOLES WIDENING AS THE DAY GOES ON.
THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS TODAY WILL NEGATE ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY AS
THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH DAY TIME HEATING TO GET TEMPS HIGH ENOUGH
TO INITIALIZE ANY CONVENTION.

HOWEVER FAR THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS RETREAT TODAY, THEY WILL JUST
REFORM TONIGHT. SLIGHT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS STILL ONGOING SO
MOST AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE SHOULD AGAIN SEE LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG SHOULD STILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
OUTER COAST AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT BUT VISIBILITY
REDUCTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. THE MARINE CLOUDS
SHOULD AGAIN BURN OFF TOMORROW.

THE NEXT STORY IS THE WEAKENING TROUGH THAT IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF
RIGHT NOW. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE GULF AND NORTHERN
GULF COAST, INCLUDING YAKUTAT, TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. IT WILL NOT
GET MUCH FARTHER EAST AS IT WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN CANADA. ALL THE RAIN WILL BE LIMITED TO CAPE
FAIRWEATHER AND WESTWARD WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND A QUARTER INCH
OR LESS. THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE MAY SEE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAM OVERHEAD ON MON FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT THAT WILL BE
ABOUT IT. WITH THESE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE LINGERING MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS STILL AROUND TOMORROW, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
BE IN THE 60S. THIS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY CONVECTION
TOMORROW EITHER. SO PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MAIN PANHANDLE ARE LOW
WITH ALL T-STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO STAY IN CANADA.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN TODAY. SO MAIN
CHANGES TODAY WERE LOCAL CHANGES FOR MARINE LAYER AND SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AK GULF WHICH WILL KEEP SURFACE FEATURES
TO THE WEST OR SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS
WEEKS BLOCKING HIGH WHICH EXTENDED THROUGH TO UPPER LEVELS THERE
IS A 500 MB CLOSED LOW TRACKING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE MID
WEEK. OVERALL THE REGION WILL BE ON THE WARM AND DRY SIDE COMPARED
TO CLIMATE NORMAL WITH THAT WAVE MOVING CLOUD COVER NOT EXPECTING
AS MANY RECORD HIGHS AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN MAY BREAK THE
DRY STREAK AT LEAST FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE.

 SHORT WAVE CROSSING OVER THE NORTHERN AK GULF WILL HAVE
DISSIPATED BY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF
AT THE SAME TIME WITH MARINE LAYER FORMATION EXPECTED. INLAND
SKIES SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING ON MONDAY NIGHT BUT THEN A RETURN
TO MORE CLOUD COVER. MODELS ARE STARTING TO FALL MORE INLINE WITH
THE 500 BM SHORT WAVE FORMING OVER KODIAK AROUND THE TRIPLE POINT
OF A FRONT EXTENDING FROM A BERING SEA LOW ON MONDAY. THE WAVE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AK GULF AND MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE BY
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS BETTER CONSENSUS ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW AT THIS TIME POSITION OF THE LOW STILL NOT
NAILED DOWN. GFS MOVES IT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE ECMWF/GEM HAVE THE
LOW CENTER MOTE OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PANHANDLE. MODELS
THEN TRACK THE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA BY THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS NO SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN ADDITION TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. KEEPING POPS AS CHANCE OR LOWER MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHERN REGIONS. QPF VALUES ARE LOW, A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH, SO WENT WITH LIGHT RAIN WORDING. AS THE WAVE MOVE INTO
B.C. DRIER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, JUST IN TIME
FOR ANOTHER POTENTIAL WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF FROM
THE AK INTERIOR, BUT HIGH UNCERTAINTY BY THAT TIME.

WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON THE LESS SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL
BE NORTHWESTERLY PICKING UP TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN
REGIONS. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER TIP JET FORM NEAR CAPE DECISION WITH
WINDS NEARING SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FOR CROSS SOUND AND ICY STRAIT.
WINDS WILL HAVE A DIURNAL PATTERN BUT NOT AS MUCH AS WE ARE SEEING
CURRENTLY DUE TO DECREASED THERMAL GRADIENT. OVERLAND WINDS STILL
HAVE SOME SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON THOSE CLEARER DAYS BUT MOSTLY
DRIVEN BY NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT.

GOOD INITIALIZATION WITH THE NAM/ECMWF WHICH WERE USED TO UPDATE
GRIDS THROUGH DAY 4, ALTHOUGH BY DAY 3 INHERITED GRIDS WERE SO
CLOSE TO ECMWF CHANGES WERE MINOR. FOR REMAINDER OF EXTENDED
FORECAST USED NEW WPC WHICH WAS MOSTLY ENSEMBLE ECMWF, CHANGES FOR
THIS TIME WERE MINOR AS WELL. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE POPS
IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY JUST ENOUGH FOR CHANCE OF RAIN TO
BE MENTIONED. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FUELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY WITH THE CONTINUING
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. MIN RH VALUES HAVE IMPROVED OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH THE INFILTRATION OF THE MARINE LAYER
FURTHER INLAND OVERNIGHT SO NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER THE CONTINUING LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL MEAN VEGETATION WILL REMAIN VERY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FIRE. PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTINUE TO USE
CAUTION WITH ANY OPEN AIR FIRES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE RECENT WARM WEATHER OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS
HAS CAUSED THE LARGER GLACIER AND SNOW MELT FED RIVERS TO RISE. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED, BUT THE TAIYA RIVER HAS RISEN TO NEAR
BANKFULL STAGE LAST NIGHT AND THE NIGHT BEFORE. COOLER WEATHER
FROM INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL SLOW MELTING AND ALLOW RIVER
LEVELS TO FLATTEN OUT OR DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

&&

$$

EAL/PRB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU













000
FXAK67 PAJK 242246
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
246 PM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...MAIN STORY TODAY IS THE EXTENSIVE MARINE LAYER
ACROSS THE GULF AND PANHANDLE. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS INFILTRATED ALL
OF THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND
THERE IT MOSTLY TOOK THE FORM OF LOW STRATUS. SATELLITE IMAGES
AROUND NOON REVEAL THAT THE CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BURN OFF OVER
CHATHAM STRAIT, BARANOF ISLAND, CHICHAGOF ISLAND, AND SOUTHERN
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND WITH THE HOLES WIDENING AS THE DAY GOES ON.
THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS TODAY WILL NEGATE ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY AS
THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH DAY TIME HEATING TO GET TEMPS HIGH ENOUGH
TO INITIALIZE ANY CONVENTION.

HOWEVER FAR THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS RETREAT TODAY, THEY WILL JUST
REFORM TONIGHT. SLIGHT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS STILL ONGOING SO
MOST AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE SHOULD AGAIN SEE LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG SHOULD STILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
OUTER COAST AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT BUT VISIBILITY
REDUCTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. THE MARINE CLOUDS
SHOULD AGAIN BURN OFF TOMORROW.

THE NEXT STORY IS THE WEAKENING TROUGH THAT IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF
RIGHT NOW. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE GULF AND NORTHERN
GULF COAST, INCLUDING YAKUTAT, TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. IT WILL NOT
GET MUCH FARTHER EAST AS IT WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN CANADA. ALL THE RAIN WILL BE LIMITED TO CAPE
FAIRWEATHER AND WESTWARD WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND A QUARTER INCH
OR LESS. THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE MAY SEE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAM OVERHEAD ON MON FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT THAT WILL BE
ABOUT IT. WITH THESE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE LINGERING MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS STILL AROUND TOMORROW, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
BE IN THE 60S. THIS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY CONVECTION
TOMORROW EITHER. SO PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MAIN PANHANDLE ARE LOW
WITH ALL T-STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO STAY IN CANADA.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN TODAY. SO MAIN
CHANGES TODAY WERE LOCAL CHANGES FOR MARINE LAYER AND SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AK GULF WHICH WILL KEEP SURFACE FEATURES
TO THE WEST OR SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS
WEEKS BLOCKING HIGH WHICH EXTENDED THROUGH TO UPPER LEVELS THERE
IS A 500 MB CLOSED LOW TRACKING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE MID
WEEK. OVERALL THE REGION WILL BE ON THE WARM AND DRY SIDE COMPARED
TO CLIMATE NORMAL WITH THAT WAVE MOVING CLOUD COVER NOT EXPECTING
AS MANY RECORD HIGHS AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN MAY BREAK THE
DRY STREAK AT LEAST FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE.

 SHORT WAVE CROSSING OVER THE NORTHERN AK GULF WILL HAVE
DISSIPATED BY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF
AT THE SAME TIME WITH MARINE LAYER FORMATION EXPECTED. INLAND
SKIES SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING ON MONDAY NIGHT BUT THEN A RETURN
TO MORE CLOUD COVER. MODELS ARE STARTING TO FALL MORE INLINE WITH
THE 500 BM SHORT WAVE FORMING OVER KODIAK AROUND THE TRIPLE POINT
OF A FRONT EXTENDING FROM A BERING SEA LOW ON MONDAY. THE WAVE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AK GULF AND MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE BY
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS BETTER CONSENSUS ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW AT THIS TIME POSITION OF THE LOW STILL NOT
NAILED DOWN. GFS MOVES IT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE ECMWF/GEM HAVE THE
LOW CENTER MOTE OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PANHANDLE. MODELS
THEN TRACK THE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA BY THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS NO SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN ADDITION TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. KEEPING POPS AS CHANCE OR LOWER MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHERN REGIONS. QPF VALUES ARE LOW, A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH, SO WENT WITH LIGHT RAIN WORDING. AS THE WAVE MOVE INTO
B.C. DRIER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, JUST IN TIME
FOR ANOTHER POTENTIAL WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF FROM
THE AK INTERIOR, BUT HIGH UNCERTAINTY BY THAT TIME.

WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON THE LESS SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL
BE NORTHWESTERLY PICKING UP TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN
REGIONS. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER TIP JET FORM NEAR CAPE DECISION WITH
WINDS NEARING SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FOR CROSS SOUND AND ICY STRAIT.
WINDS WILL HAVE A DIURNAL PATTERN BUT NOT AS MUCH AS WE ARE SEEING
CURRENTLY DUE TO DECREASED THERMAL GRADIENT. OVERLAND WINDS STILL
HAVE SOME SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON THOSE CLEARER DAYS BUT MOSTLY
DRIVEN BY NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT.

GOOD INITIALIZATION WITH THE NAM/ECMWF WHICH WERE USED TO UPDATE
GRIDS THROUGH DAY 4, ALTHOUGH BY DAY 3 INHERITED GRIDS WERE SO
CLOSE TO ECMWF CHANGES WERE MINOR. FOR REMAINDER OF EXTENDED
FORECAST USED NEW WPC WHICH WAS MOSTLY ENSEMBLE ECMWF, CHANGES FOR
THIS TIME WERE MINOR AS WELL. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE POPS
IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY JUST ENOUGH FOR CHANCE OF RAIN TO
BE MENTIONED. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FUELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY WITH THE CONTINUING
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. MIN RH VALUES HAVE IMPROVED OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH THE INFILTRATION OF THE MARINE LAYER
FURTHER INLAND OVERNIGHT SO NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER THE CONTINUING LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL MEAN VEGETATION WILL REMAIN VERY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FIRE. PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTINUE TO USE
CAUTION WITH ANY OPEN AIR FIRES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE RECENT WARM WEATHER OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS
HAS CAUSED THE LARGER GLACIER AND SNOW MELT FED RIVERS TO RISE. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED, BUT THE TAIYA RIVER HAS RISEN TO NEAR
BANKFULL STAGE LAST NIGHT AND THE NIGHT BEFORE. COOLER WEATHER
FROM INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL SLOW MELTING AND ALLOW RIVER
LEVELS TO FLATTEN OUT OR DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

&&

$$

EAL/PRB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU














000
FXAK67 PAJK 241346
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
546 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...NO FOG PROBLEMS ONSHORE THUS FAR THIS MORNING AS
MARINE PUSH HAS BEEN WEAKER AT YAKUTAT AND ONLY SEEING STRATUS
THERE AND AT SEVERAL OTHER NEAR-COASTAL AREAS...GUSTAVUS, HOONAH,
SITKA, KAKE, WRANGELL, KLAWOCK, KETCHIKAN, METLAKATLA, TENAKEE AND
ANNETTE. ALSO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS NOT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WITH
COOLER SURFACE TEMPS GOING INTO THE NIGHT DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER IN THE EVENING. THE OFFSHORE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING AS
THE NEW WEAK TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF. MODEL UPDATES PRESENTED NO SURPRISES AS YAKUTAT
WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY AREA TO GET ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN
TONIGHT. USED AN EC/NAM COMBO FOR MINOR UPDATES IN THE
GRIDS...WITH WIND TWEAKS...AND THE SAME FOR THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS.
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AGAIN WITH LITTLE THREAT OF
THUNDER ON OUR SIDE OF THE BORDER AS HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DECREASE. 60-65 MAX TEMPS GENERALLY TODAY WITH UP TOWARDS 70 IN
THE EXPOSED LOCATIONS OF THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

DIURNAL MARINE PUSH IS LIKELY TO AFFECT A FEW AREAS TONIGHT...MAINLY
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC
FORCING IN PLACE. YAKUTAT WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK
WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE SW. ANTICIPATE A FEW AREAS OF FOG TO
DEVELOP BUT AS USUAL IT IS TOUGH TO SPECIFY THEM WITH MUCH
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. SPECIFIED COASTAL AREAS FROM JUST EAST
OF YAKUTAT DOWN THROUGH CRAIG/KLAWOCK AND OVER TOWARDS KETCHIKAN
FOR AREAS OF FOG DURING THE 09-15Z TIME PERIOD. CROSS SOUND WILL
LIKELY HAVE A DIURNAL INCREASE IN WINDS BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT
SEE THEM GETTING MUCH ABOVE 20 KTS. NORTHERN LYNN CANAL SHOULD
AGAIN GET TO SCA-LEVEL SOUTH WINDS BY 21Z OR SO AND THIS WILL LAST
WELL INTO TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN ADJACENT OFFSHORE ZONES SHOULD SEE
15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BIT OF A DECREASE AS THE GRADIENTS
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...A WEAK FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF ZONE 17 IN THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST PERIOD IS STILL NOT
FORECAST TO PROGRESS ANY FARTHER TO THE EAST THAN CAPE FAIRWEATHER
WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. FARTHER SOUTH, A WAVE ALONG
THAT SAME FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO A WEAK
SURFACE CIRCULATION AND TRACK NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF ON
TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL BE TRACKING RIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY DOMINATING THE EASTERN GULF, SO
WHAT LITTLE MID LEVEL ENERGY THE LOW HAS WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY
REDUCED AS IT APPROACHES THE OUTER COAST TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS
ARE, HOWEVER, STILL HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MAKING IT
INLAND. MODIFIED POP AND QPF GRIDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO INDICATE AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
RAIN DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AND
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF SOON AFTER THE LOW DISSIPATES ALONG THE
OUTER COAST. TO THE EAST, THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN CANADA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, RE-ESTABLISHING A PATTERN WE
HAVE SEEN FOR THE BETTER PART OF TWO WEEKS NOW. SLIGHTLY STRONGER
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE
CONVECTION CONFINED TO WESTERN CANADA THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK,
THUS DIMINISHING THE THREAT FROM LIGHTNING INDUCED WILDFIRES. A
STRONGER ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL ALSO MAKE FOR INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, TAKING THE EDGE OFF OF THE WARM SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING LATELY AS WELL AS INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS,
FURTHER REDUCING THE THREAT OF WILDFIRES. THE FOREST FLOOR WILL,
HOWEVER, REMAIN ABNORMALLY DRY, SO RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE
CAUTIONED TO REMAIN VIGILANT WITH OUTDOOR FIRES UNTIL THE REGION
RECEIVES A THOROUGH, SOAKING RAIN.

EXISTING FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK, SO ONLY CHANGES WERE
TO INCORPORATE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SNOW MELT HAS CAUSED THE SITUK, CHILKAT AND STIKINE RIVERS
TO GET NEAR ACTION STAGE WITH A STEADY, SLOW TREND OF INCREASING
DIURNAL PEAKS IN RECENT DAYS. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THIS TREND MAY HALT OR EVEN REVERSE. CONSULTATION WITH THE RIVER
FORECAST CENTER WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

&&

$$

WESLEY/FRITSCH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 241346
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
546 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...NO FOG PROBLEMS ONSHORE THUS FAR THIS MORNING AS
MARINE PUSH HAS BEEN WEAKER AT YAKUTAT AND ONLY SEEING STRATUS
THERE AND AT SEVERAL OTHER NEAR-COASTAL AREAS...GUSTAVUS, HOONAH,
SITKA, KAKE, WRANGELL, KLAWOCK, KETCHIKAN, METLAKATLA, TENAKEE AND
ANNETTE. ALSO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS NOT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WITH
COOLER SURFACE TEMPS GOING INTO THE NIGHT DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER IN THE EVENING. THE OFFSHORE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING AS
THE NEW WEAK TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF. MODEL UPDATES PRESENTED NO SURPRISES AS YAKUTAT
WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY AREA TO GET ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN
TONIGHT. USED AN EC/NAM COMBO FOR MINOR UPDATES IN THE
GRIDS...WITH WIND TWEAKS...AND THE SAME FOR THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS.
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AGAIN WITH LITTLE THREAT OF
THUNDER ON OUR SIDE OF THE BORDER AS HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DECREASE. 60-65 MAX TEMPS GENERALLY TODAY WITH UP TOWARDS 70 IN
THE EXPOSED LOCATIONS OF THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

DIURNAL MARINE PUSH IS LIKELY TO AFFECT A FEW AREAS TONIGHT...MAINLY
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC
FORCING IN PLACE. YAKUTAT WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK
WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE SW. ANTICIPATE A FEW AREAS OF FOG TO
DEVELOP BUT AS USUAL IT IS TOUGH TO SPECIFY THEM WITH MUCH
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. SPECIFIED COASTAL AREAS FROM JUST EAST
OF YAKUTAT DOWN THROUGH CRAIG/KLAWOCK AND OVER TOWARDS KETCHIKAN
FOR AREAS OF FOG DURING THE 09-15Z TIME PERIOD. CROSS SOUND WILL
LIKELY HAVE A DIURNAL INCREASE IN WINDS BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT
SEE THEM GETTING MUCH ABOVE 20 KTS. NORTHERN LYNN CANAL SHOULD
AGAIN GET TO SCA-LEVEL SOUTH WINDS BY 21Z OR SO AND THIS WILL LAST
WELL INTO TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN ADJACENT OFFSHORE ZONES SHOULD SEE
15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BIT OF A DECREASE AS THE GRADIENTS
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...A WEAK FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF ZONE 17 IN THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST PERIOD IS STILL NOT
FORECAST TO PROGRESS ANY FARTHER TO THE EAST THAN CAPE FAIRWEATHER
WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. FARTHER SOUTH, A WAVE ALONG
THAT SAME FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO A WEAK
SURFACE CIRCULATION AND TRACK NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF ON
TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL BE TRACKING RIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY DOMINATING THE EASTERN GULF, SO
WHAT LITTLE MID LEVEL ENERGY THE LOW HAS WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY
REDUCED AS IT APPROACHES THE OUTER COAST TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS
ARE, HOWEVER, STILL HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MAKING IT
INLAND. MODIFIED POP AND QPF GRIDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO INDICATE AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
RAIN DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AND
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF SOON AFTER THE LOW DISSIPATES ALONG THE
OUTER COAST. TO THE EAST, THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN CANADA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, RE-ESTABLISHING A PATTERN WE
HAVE SEEN FOR THE BETTER PART OF TWO WEEKS NOW. SLIGHTLY STRONGER
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE
CONVECTION CONFINED TO WESTERN CANADA THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK,
THUS DIMINISHING THE THREAT FROM LIGHTNING INDUCED WILDFIRES. A
STRONGER ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL ALSO MAKE FOR INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, TAKING THE EDGE OFF OF THE WARM SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING LATELY AS WELL AS INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS,
FURTHER REDUCING THE THREAT OF WILDFIRES. THE FOREST FLOOR WILL,
HOWEVER, REMAIN ABNORMALLY DRY, SO RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE
CAUTIONED TO REMAIN VIGILANT WITH OUTDOOR FIRES UNTIL THE REGION
RECEIVES A THOROUGH, SOAKING RAIN.

EXISTING FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK, SO ONLY CHANGES WERE
TO INCORPORATE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SNOW MELT HAS CAUSED THE SITUK, CHILKAT AND STIKINE RIVERS
TO GET NEAR ACTION STAGE WITH A STEADY, SLOW TREND OF INCREASING
DIURNAL PEAKS IN RECENT DAYS. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THIS TREND MAY HALT OR EVEN REVERSE. CONSULTATION WITH THE RIVER
FORECAST CENTER WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

&&

$$

WESLEY/FRITSCH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU










000
FXAK67 PAJK 241346
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
546 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...NO FOG PROBLEMS ONSHORE THUS FAR THIS MORNING AS
MARINE PUSH HAS BEEN WEAKER AT YAKUTAT AND ONLY SEEING STRATUS
THERE AND AT SEVERAL OTHER NEAR-COASTAL AREAS...GUSTAVUS, HOONAH,
SITKA, KAKE, WRANGELL, KLAWOCK, KETCHIKAN, METLAKATLA, TENAKEE AND
ANNETTE. ALSO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS NOT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WITH
COOLER SURFACE TEMPS GOING INTO THE NIGHT DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER IN THE EVENING. THE OFFSHORE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING AS
THE NEW WEAK TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF. MODEL UPDATES PRESENTED NO SURPRISES AS YAKUTAT
WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY AREA TO GET ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN
TONIGHT. USED AN EC/NAM COMBO FOR MINOR UPDATES IN THE
GRIDS...WITH WIND TWEAKS...AND THE SAME FOR THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS.
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AGAIN WITH LITTLE THREAT OF
THUNDER ON OUR SIDE OF THE BORDER AS HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DECREASE. 60-65 MAX TEMPS GENERALLY TODAY WITH UP TOWARDS 70 IN
THE EXPOSED LOCATIONS OF THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

DIURNAL MARINE PUSH IS LIKELY TO AFFECT A FEW AREAS TONIGHT...MAINLY
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC
FORCING IN PLACE. YAKUTAT WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK
WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE SW. ANTICIPATE A FEW AREAS OF FOG TO
DEVELOP BUT AS USUAL IT IS TOUGH TO SPECIFY THEM WITH MUCH
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. SPECIFIED COASTAL AREAS FROM JUST EAST
OF YAKUTAT DOWN THROUGH CRAIG/KLAWOCK AND OVER TOWARDS KETCHIKAN
FOR AREAS OF FOG DURING THE 09-15Z TIME PERIOD. CROSS SOUND WILL
LIKELY HAVE A DIURNAL INCREASE IN WINDS BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT
SEE THEM GETTING MUCH ABOVE 20 KTS. NORTHERN LYNN CANAL SHOULD
AGAIN GET TO SCA-LEVEL SOUTH WINDS BY 21Z OR SO AND THIS WILL LAST
WELL INTO TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN ADJACENT OFFSHORE ZONES SHOULD SEE
15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BIT OF A DECREASE AS THE GRADIENTS
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...A WEAK FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF ZONE 17 IN THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST PERIOD IS STILL NOT
FORECAST TO PROGRESS ANY FARTHER TO THE EAST THAN CAPE FAIRWEATHER
WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. FARTHER SOUTH, A WAVE ALONG
THAT SAME FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO A WEAK
SURFACE CIRCULATION AND TRACK NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF ON
TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL BE TRACKING RIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY DOMINATING THE EASTERN GULF, SO
WHAT LITTLE MID LEVEL ENERGY THE LOW HAS WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY
REDUCED AS IT APPROACHES THE OUTER COAST TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS
ARE, HOWEVER, STILL HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MAKING IT
INLAND. MODIFIED POP AND QPF GRIDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO INDICATE AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
RAIN DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AND
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF SOON AFTER THE LOW DISSIPATES ALONG THE
OUTER COAST. TO THE EAST, THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN CANADA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, RE-ESTABLISHING A PATTERN WE
HAVE SEEN FOR THE BETTER PART OF TWO WEEKS NOW. SLIGHTLY STRONGER
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE
CONVECTION CONFINED TO WESTERN CANADA THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK,
THUS DIMINISHING THE THREAT FROM LIGHTNING INDUCED WILDFIRES. A
STRONGER ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL ALSO MAKE FOR INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, TAKING THE EDGE OFF OF THE WARM SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING LATELY AS WELL AS INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS,
FURTHER REDUCING THE THREAT OF WILDFIRES. THE FOREST FLOOR WILL,
HOWEVER, REMAIN ABNORMALLY DRY, SO RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE
CAUTIONED TO REMAIN VIGILANT WITH OUTDOOR FIRES UNTIL THE REGION
RECEIVES A THOROUGH, SOAKING RAIN.

EXISTING FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK, SO ONLY CHANGES WERE
TO INCORPORATE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SNOW MELT HAS CAUSED THE SITUK, CHILKAT AND STIKINE RIVERS
TO GET NEAR ACTION STAGE WITH A STEADY, SLOW TREND OF INCREASING
DIURNAL PEAKS IN RECENT DAYS. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THIS TREND MAY HALT OR EVEN REVERSE. CONSULTATION WITH THE RIVER
FORECAST CENTER WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

&&

$$

WESLEY/FRITSCH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU










000
FXAK67 PAJK 241346
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
546 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...NO FOG PROBLEMS ONSHORE THUS FAR THIS MORNING AS
MARINE PUSH HAS BEEN WEAKER AT YAKUTAT AND ONLY SEEING STRATUS
THERE AND AT SEVERAL OTHER NEAR-COASTAL AREAS...GUSTAVUS, HOONAH,
SITKA, KAKE, WRANGELL, KLAWOCK, KETCHIKAN, METLAKATLA, TENAKEE AND
ANNETTE. ALSO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS NOT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WITH
COOLER SURFACE TEMPS GOING INTO THE NIGHT DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER IN THE EVENING. THE OFFSHORE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING AS
THE NEW WEAK TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF. MODEL UPDATES PRESENTED NO SURPRISES AS YAKUTAT
WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY AREA TO GET ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN
TONIGHT. USED AN EC/NAM COMBO FOR MINOR UPDATES IN THE
GRIDS...WITH WIND TWEAKS...AND THE SAME FOR THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS.
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AGAIN WITH LITTLE THREAT OF
THUNDER ON OUR SIDE OF THE BORDER AS HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DECREASE. 60-65 MAX TEMPS GENERALLY TODAY WITH UP TOWARDS 70 IN
THE EXPOSED LOCATIONS OF THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

DIURNAL MARINE PUSH IS LIKELY TO AFFECT A FEW AREAS TONIGHT...MAINLY
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC
FORCING IN PLACE. YAKUTAT WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK
WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE SW. ANTICIPATE A FEW AREAS OF FOG TO
DEVELOP BUT AS USUAL IT IS TOUGH TO SPECIFY THEM WITH MUCH
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. SPECIFIED COASTAL AREAS FROM JUST EAST
OF YAKUTAT DOWN THROUGH CRAIG/KLAWOCK AND OVER TOWARDS KETCHIKAN
FOR AREAS OF FOG DURING THE 09-15Z TIME PERIOD. CROSS SOUND WILL
LIKELY HAVE A DIURNAL INCREASE IN WINDS BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT
SEE THEM GETTING MUCH ABOVE 20 KTS. NORTHERN LYNN CANAL SHOULD
AGAIN GET TO SCA-LEVEL SOUTH WINDS BY 21Z OR SO AND THIS WILL LAST
WELL INTO TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN ADJACENT OFFSHORE ZONES SHOULD SEE
15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BIT OF A DECREASE AS THE GRADIENTS
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...A WEAK FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF ZONE 17 IN THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST PERIOD IS STILL NOT
FORECAST TO PROGRESS ANY FARTHER TO THE EAST THAN CAPE FAIRWEATHER
WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. FARTHER SOUTH, A WAVE ALONG
THAT SAME FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO A WEAK
SURFACE CIRCULATION AND TRACK NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF ON
TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL BE TRACKING RIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY DOMINATING THE EASTERN GULF, SO
WHAT LITTLE MID LEVEL ENERGY THE LOW HAS WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY
REDUCED AS IT APPROACHES THE OUTER COAST TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS
ARE, HOWEVER, STILL HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MAKING IT
INLAND. MODIFIED POP AND QPF GRIDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO INDICATE AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
RAIN DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AND
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF SOON AFTER THE LOW DISSIPATES ALONG THE
OUTER COAST. TO THE EAST, THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN CANADA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, RE-ESTABLISHING A PATTERN WE
HAVE SEEN FOR THE BETTER PART OF TWO WEEKS NOW. SLIGHTLY STRONGER
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE
CONVECTION CONFINED TO WESTERN CANADA THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK,
THUS DIMINISHING THE THREAT FROM LIGHTNING INDUCED WILDFIRES. A
STRONGER ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL ALSO MAKE FOR INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, TAKING THE EDGE OFF OF THE WARM SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING LATELY AS WELL AS INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS,
FURTHER REDUCING THE THREAT OF WILDFIRES. THE FOREST FLOOR WILL,
HOWEVER, REMAIN ABNORMALLY DRY, SO RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE
CAUTIONED TO REMAIN VIGILANT WITH OUTDOOR FIRES UNTIL THE REGION
RECEIVES A THOROUGH, SOAKING RAIN.

EXISTING FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK, SO ONLY CHANGES WERE
TO INCORPORATE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SNOW MELT HAS CAUSED THE SITUK, CHILKAT AND STIKINE RIVERS
TO GET NEAR ACTION STAGE WITH A STEADY, SLOW TREND OF INCREASING
DIURNAL PEAKS IN RECENT DAYS. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THIS TREND MAY HALT OR EVEN REVERSE. CONSULTATION WITH THE RIVER
FORECAST CENTER WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

&&

$$

WESLEY/FRITSCH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 232311
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
311 PM AKDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...COMPLEX WEATHER STORY OVER THE PANHANDLE TODAY. PART
ONE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THAT HAS SPARKED
OFF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. ONE CELL FORMED JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK ON THE PENINSULA BETWEEN PORTLAND CANAL AND BEHM
CANAL BUT PROMPTLY COLLAPSED AS IT TRIED TO MOVE W OVER WATER. A
FEW OTHER T-STORMS HAVE POPPED UP NEAR PRINCE RUPERT, BC BUT THOSE
ALSO COLLAPSED AS THEY MOVED NW OVER PORTLAND CANAL. PART TWO IS
FARTHER NORTH AND TAKES THE FORM OF A SHIELD OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE FROM THE
BC INTERIOR. THESE CLOUDS HAVE CURTAILED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. MOST PLACES ARE STILL SHOWING TEMPS IN THE
50S AND 60S AROUND NOON. FINALLY PART THREE IS THE PERSISTENT
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE OUTER COAST AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. YAKUTAT HAD VISIBILITY AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE THIS
MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME BURNING OFF DUE TO
THE HIGHER CLOUDS AND SOME DEVELOPING WEAK ONSHORE FLOW.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE DOES NOT STICK AROUND
LONG AS IT IS FORECAST TO SLIP SE THIS EVENING TAKING MOST OF ITS
VORTICITY WITH IT. STILL IT WILL STICK AROUND LONG ENOUGH THAT
MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE POSSIBLE. THEY ARE MAINLY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS LINGERING CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING IS
INHIBITING TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING HIGH ENOUGH TO INITIALIZE
CONVECTION FROM SEA LEVEL. GENERAL MOTION OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
FROM THE E AND SE TO THE W AND NW. EXPECT MORE LIGHTNING AND SOME
HEAVY RAIN AS THESE STORMS DEVELOP.

FARTHER NORTH THE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS STUNTED
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BOTH IN THE PANHANDLE AS WELL AS UPSTREAM
IN BC. AS SUCH THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS EVENING FROM
AROUND PETERSBURG NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE VORTICITY
THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS STICKS AROUND AND EVEN DRIFTS
NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. TOMORROW MOST OF THAT VORTICITY STARTS TO
DRIFT BACK EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH IN THE GULF SO THE CLOUD
SHIELD SHOULD START BANKING BACK TO THE EAST TOMORROW BUT ENOUGH
WILL LINGER FOR HIGH TEMPS TO NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S FOR THE MOST
PART.

SPEAKING OF THE NEXT TROUGH, IT IS STILL OVER IN THE WESTERN GULF
RIGHT NOW AND WILL START HEADING EAST TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND RAIN TO THE CENTRAL GULF AND NORTHERN OUTER COAST WEST
OF YAKUTAT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IT DOES NOT QUITE GET TO THE
REST OF THE PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THE SHORT RANGE BUT SOME
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS COULD BE OBSERVED ALONG THE NE GULF COAST BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THROUGH ALL OF THIS, THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE
THEIR ADVANCE AND RETREAT ALONG THE OUTER COAST AND INNER
CHANNELS. DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY CAUSE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO ADVANCE FARTHER INTO THE
INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT THEN WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS. QUITE A FEW AREAS THAT HAVEN`T SEEN THE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY
WILL TONIGHT INCLUDING MANY AREAS ALONG CLARENCE STRAIT, ICE
STRAIT, CHATHAM STRAIT, SUMNER STRAIT AND POSSIBLY EVEN FARTHER
INLAND. THE CLOUDS WILL THEN BURN OFF AGAIN TOMORROW BUT HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN SOME AREAS MAY DELAY THE BURN OFF UNTIL LATER
IN THE DAY OR NOT AT ALL.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH SOME DISAGREEMENT
ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS LEFT OVER THE PANHANDLE
AFTER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE UPPER LOW RETREATS WAS NOTED. ALL IN
ALL THAT DOES NOT AFFECT THE FORECAST TOO MUCH ASIDE FROM HOW MUCH
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER
COAST. GENERALLY FAVORED THE NAM FOR GUIDANCE TODAY.

.LONG TERM...WEAKENING SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN AK GULF AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AK INTERIOR AND YUKON THROUGH
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO REBUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AK
GULF. PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND
YAKUTAT REGION AS ANY ENERGY FROM THE WAVE DISSIPATES PUSHING THE
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE PANHANDLE EASTWARD. CLOUD COVER FROM THE
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT SO EXPECTING
LESS DIURNAL TEMPERATURE VARIATION. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE GULF BY MONDAY WE RETURN TO A SIMILAR WEATHER
PATTERN SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH WARM DAY TIME TEMPS, CLEARER
SKIES, AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT, MARINE STRATUS FORMING
AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY WAVES MOVING IN FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA LATER
IN THE WEEK. DIFFERENCES WILL BE THE RIDGE AXIS MAY HAVE MORE
ONSHORE FLOW WHICH WOULD KEEP IN MORE CLOUD COVER AND THUS SUBDUE
TEMPERATURES. PLUS WHILE MODEL 500 MB HEIGHTS HAD POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN THEY WERE NOT AS ROBUST AS THE
PREVIOUS OMEGA BLOCK. IN ADDITION AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP
NEAR KODIAK FROM A PARENT LOW IN THE BERING SEA TUESDAY THEN CROSS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY. NOT SEEING A CORRESPONDING
SURFACE FEATURE SO THIS MAY BRING JUST MORE CLOUD COVER TO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. BUT HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM. FEEL THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION MOVING IT INTO NORTHERN B.C.
SEEMED MORE REASONABLE, BUT THE 12Z RUNS STARTED TO SLOW DOWN ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION. BY THE END OF THE WEEK HIGHER UNCERTAINTY
WITH WAVES ADVANCING FROM THE WEST. THE GFS KEEPS A BLOCKING
PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG RANGE KEEPING ALONG LOW
WEST OF THE AK GULF WHILE THE ECMWF IN THE PAST TWO RUNS BREAKS
DOWN THE RIDGE BY SATURDAY ALLOWING THESE SYSTEMS INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF.

USED SOME 12Z NAM/GEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE ADVANCING BUT
DISSIPATING SHORT WAVE WHICH THE ECMWF WAS NOT PICKING UP AS MUCH.
MODELS FELL IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER BY MONDAY FOR SURFACE
PRESSURE, BUILDING HIGH AND DID NOT SHOW TOO MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODEL CHOICE FOR THAT TIME IS 00Z ECMWF. LATER
IN THE WEEK WENT WITH ENSEMBLE APPROACH USING NEW WPC GRIDS.
OVERALL CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WERE MINOR BUT WITH MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY STARTING WEDNESDAY EXPECT
FORECAST TO VARY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE INITIALLY THEN
DROPS BELOW AVERAGE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS A BIT MORE LIMITED IN
SCOPE TODAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE HAS LIMITED TEMPERATURES TO THE 60S SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. LESS CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE EXTREME
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND AS A RESULT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE
ONLY GONE BELOW 40 PERCENT IN THE TAIYA RIVER AND CHILKAT RIVER
VALLEYS SO FAR. A FEW OTHER AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER CHANNELS AND
IN AREAS OF LOW CLOUD COVER MAY FOLLOW SUIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BUT WILL LARGELY BE LIMITED IN AREA. FIRE WEATHER WILL
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS CLOUD COVER LINGERS BOTH AT LOW
AND HIGH LEVELS AND ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT. MIN RH VALUES
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE FOR SUN AND MON. FUELS
STILL REMAIN VERY DRY HOWEVER SO EXTRA CARE IS STILL ENCOURAGED
FOR ANY OPEN AIR FIRES. AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILD OVER THE GULF
NEXT WEEK THERE IS POTENTIAL TO RETURN TO FIRE WEATHER PATTERN
WITH LOWER DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY. AS THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST FUEL WILL REMAIN
VERY DRY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE REALLY WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS HAVE CAUSED WATER LEVELS IN SOME AREA RIVERS TO RISE DUE TO
MELTING SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME BUT THE TAIYA RIVER DID APPROACH BANKFULL LAST NIGHT AND
WILL LIKELY DO SO AGAIN TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-022-042.

&&

$$

EAL/PRB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU











000
FXAK67 PAJK 232311
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
311 PM AKDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...COMPLEX WEATHER STORY OVER THE PANHANDLE TODAY. PART
ONE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THAT HAS SPARKED
OFF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. ONE CELL FORMED JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK ON THE PENINSULA BETWEEN PORTLAND CANAL AND BEHM
CANAL BUT PROMPTLY COLLAPSED AS IT TRIED TO MOVE W OVER WATER. A
FEW OTHER T-STORMS HAVE POPPED UP NEAR PRINCE RUPERT, BC BUT THOSE
ALSO COLLAPSED AS THEY MOVED NW OVER PORTLAND CANAL. PART TWO IS
FARTHER NORTH AND TAKES THE FORM OF A SHIELD OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE FROM THE
BC INTERIOR. THESE CLOUDS HAVE CURTAILED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. MOST PLACES ARE STILL SHOWING TEMPS IN THE
50S AND 60S AROUND NOON. FINALLY PART THREE IS THE PERSISTENT
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE OUTER COAST AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. YAKUTAT HAD VISIBILITY AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE THIS
MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME BURNING OFF DUE TO
THE HIGHER CLOUDS AND SOME DEVELOPING WEAK ONSHORE FLOW.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE DOES NOT STICK AROUND
LONG AS IT IS FORECAST TO SLIP SE THIS EVENING TAKING MOST OF ITS
VORTICITY WITH IT. STILL IT WILL STICK AROUND LONG ENOUGH THAT
MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE POSSIBLE. THEY ARE MAINLY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS LINGERING CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING IS
INHIBITING TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING HIGH ENOUGH TO INITIALIZE
CONVECTION FROM SEA LEVEL. GENERAL MOTION OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
FROM THE E AND SE TO THE W AND NW. EXPECT MORE LIGHTNING AND SOME
HEAVY RAIN AS THESE STORMS DEVELOP.

FARTHER NORTH THE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS STUNTED
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BOTH IN THE PANHANDLE AS WELL AS UPSTREAM
IN BC. AS SUCH THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS EVENING FROM
AROUND PETERSBURG NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE VORTICITY
THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS STICKS AROUND AND EVEN DRIFTS
NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. TOMORROW MOST OF THAT VORTICITY STARTS TO
DRIFT BACK EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH IN THE GULF SO THE CLOUD
SHIELD SHOULD START BANKING BACK TO THE EAST TOMORROW BUT ENOUGH
WILL LINGER FOR HIGH TEMPS TO NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S FOR THE MOST
PART.

SPEAKING OF THE NEXT TROUGH, IT IS STILL OVER IN THE WESTERN GULF
RIGHT NOW AND WILL START HEADING EAST TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND RAIN TO THE CENTRAL GULF AND NORTHERN OUTER COAST WEST
OF YAKUTAT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IT DOES NOT QUITE GET TO THE
REST OF THE PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THE SHORT RANGE BUT SOME
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS COULD BE OBSERVED ALONG THE NE GULF COAST BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THROUGH ALL OF THIS, THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE
THEIR ADVANCE AND RETREAT ALONG THE OUTER COAST AND INNER
CHANNELS. DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY CAUSE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO ADVANCE FARTHER INTO THE
INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT THEN WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS. QUITE A FEW AREAS THAT HAVEN`T SEEN THE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY
WILL TONIGHT INCLUDING MANY AREAS ALONG CLARENCE STRAIT, ICE
STRAIT, CHATHAM STRAIT, SUMNER STRAIT AND POSSIBLY EVEN FARTHER
INLAND. THE CLOUDS WILL THEN BURN OFF AGAIN TOMORROW BUT HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN SOME AREAS MAY DELAY THE BURN OFF UNTIL LATER
IN THE DAY OR NOT AT ALL.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH SOME DISAGREEMENT
ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS LEFT OVER THE PANHANDLE
AFTER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE UPPER LOW RETREATS WAS NOTED. ALL IN
ALL THAT DOES NOT AFFECT THE FORECAST TOO MUCH ASIDE FROM HOW MUCH
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER
COAST. GENERALLY FAVORED THE NAM FOR GUIDANCE TODAY.

.LONG TERM...WEAKENING SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN AK GULF AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AK INTERIOR AND YUKON THROUGH
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO REBUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AK
GULF. PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND
YAKUTAT REGION AS ANY ENERGY FROM THE WAVE DISSIPATES PUSHING THE
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE PANHANDLE EASTWARD. CLOUD COVER FROM THE
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT SO EXPECTING
LESS DIURNAL TEMPERATURE VARIATION. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE GULF BY MONDAY WE RETURN TO A SIMILAR WEATHER
PATTERN SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH WARM DAY TIME TEMPS, CLEARER
SKIES, AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT, MARINE STRATUS FORMING
AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY WAVES MOVING IN FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA LATER
IN THE WEEK. DIFFERENCES WILL BE THE RIDGE AXIS MAY HAVE MORE
ONSHORE FLOW WHICH WOULD KEEP IN MORE CLOUD COVER AND THUS SUBDUE
TEMPERATURES. PLUS WHILE MODEL 500 MB HEIGHTS HAD POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN THEY WERE NOT AS ROBUST AS THE
PREVIOUS OMEGA BLOCK. IN ADDITION AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP
NEAR KODIAK FROM A PARENT LOW IN THE BERING SEA TUESDAY THEN CROSS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY. NOT SEEING A CORRESPONDING
SURFACE FEATURE SO THIS MAY BRING JUST MORE CLOUD COVER TO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. BUT HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM. FEEL THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION MOVING IT INTO NORTHERN B.C.
SEEMED MORE REASONABLE, BUT THE 12Z RUNS STARTED TO SLOW DOWN ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION. BY THE END OF THE WEEK HIGHER UNCERTAINTY
WITH WAVES ADVANCING FROM THE WEST. THE GFS KEEPS A BLOCKING
PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG RANGE KEEPING ALONG LOW
WEST OF THE AK GULF WHILE THE ECMWF IN THE PAST TWO RUNS BREAKS
DOWN THE RIDGE BY SATURDAY ALLOWING THESE SYSTEMS INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF.

USED SOME 12Z NAM/GEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE ADVANCING BUT
DISSIPATING SHORT WAVE WHICH THE ECMWF WAS NOT PICKING UP AS MUCH.
MODELS FELL IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER BY MONDAY FOR SURFACE
PRESSURE, BUILDING HIGH AND DID NOT SHOW TOO MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODEL CHOICE FOR THAT TIME IS 00Z ECMWF. LATER
IN THE WEEK WENT WITH ENSEMBLE APPROACH USING NEW WPC GRIDS.
OVERALL CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WERE MINOR BUT WITH MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY STARTING WEDNESDAY EXPECT
FORECAST TO VARY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE INITIALLY THEN
DROPS BELOW AVERAGE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS A BIT MORE LIMITED IN
SCOPE TODAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE HAS LIMITED TEMPERATURES TO THE 60S SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. LESS CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE EXTREME
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND AS A RESULT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE
ONLY GONE BELOW 40 PERCENT IN THE TAIYA RIVER AND CHILKAT RIVER
VALLEYS SO FAR. A FEW OTHER AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER CHANNELS AND
IN AREAS OF LOW CLOUD COVER MAY FOLLOW SUIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BUT WILL LARGELY BE LIMITED IN AREA. FIRE WEATHER WILL
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS CLOUD COVER LINGERS BOTH AT LOW
AND HIGH LEVELS AND ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT. MIN RH VALUES
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE FOR SUN AND MON. FUELS
STILL REMAIN VERY DRY HOWEVER SO EXTRA CARE IS STILL ENCOURAGED
FOR ANY OPEN AIR FIRES. AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILD OVER THE GULF
NEXT WEEK THERE IS POTENTIAL TO RETURN TO FIRE WEATHER PATTERN
WITH LOWER DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY. AS THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST FUEL WILL REMAIN
VERY DRY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE REALLY WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS HAVE CAUSED WATER LEVELS IN SOME AREA RIVERS TO RISE DUE TO
MELTING SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME BUT THE TAIYA RIVER DID APPROACH BANKFULL LAST NIGHT AND
WILL LIKELY DO SO AGAIN TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-022-042.

&&

$$

EAL/PRB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU












000
FXAK67 PAJK 232311
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
311 PM AKDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...COMPLEX WEATHER STORY OVER THE PANHANDLE TODAY. PART
ONE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THAT HAS SPARKED
OFF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. ONE CELL FORMED JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK ON THE PENINSULA BETWEEN PORTLAND CANAL AND BEHM
CANAL BUT PROMPTLY COLLAPSED AS IT TRIED TO MOVE W OVER WATER. A
FEW OTHER T-STORMS HAVE POPPED UP NEAR PRINCE RUPERT, BC BUT THOSE
ALSO COLLAPSED AS THEY MOVED NW OVER PORTLAND CANAL. PART TWO IS
FARTHER NORTH AND TAKES THE FORM OF A SHIELD OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE FROM THE
BC INTERIOR. THESE CLOUDS HAVE CURTAILED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. MOST PLACES ARE STILL SHOWING TEMPS IN THE
50S AND 60S AROUND NOON. FINALLY PART THREE IS THE PERSISTENT
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE OUTER COAST AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. YAKUTAT HAD VISIBILITY AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE THIS
MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME BURNING OFF DUE TO
THE HIGHER CLOUDS AND SOME DEVELOPING WEAK ONSHORE FLOW.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE DOES NOT STICK AROUND
LONG AS IT IS FORECAST TO SLIP SE THIS EVENING TAKING MOST OF ITS
VORTICITY WITH IT. STILL IT WILL STICK AROUND LONG ENOUGH THAT
MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE POSSIBLE. THEY ARE MAINLY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS LINGERING CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING IS
INHIBITING TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING HIGH ENOUGH TO INITIALIZE
CONVECTION FROM SEA LEVEL. GENERAL MOTION OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
FROM THE E AND SE TO THE W AND NW. EXPECT MORE LIGHTNING AND SOME
HEAVY RAIN AS THESE STORMS DEVELOP.

FARTHER NORTH THE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS STUNTED
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BOTH IN THE PANHANDLE AS WELL AS UPSTREAM
IN BC. AS SUCH THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS EVENING FROM
AROUND PETERSBURG NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE VORTICITY
THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS STICKS AROUND AND EVEN DRIFTS
NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. TOMORROW MOST OF THAT VORTICITY STARTS TO
DRIFT BACK EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH IN THE GULF SO THE CLOUD
SHIELD SHOULD START BANKING BACK TO THE EAST TOMORROW BUT ENOUGH
WILL LINGER FOR HIGH TEMPS TO NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S FOR THE MOST
PART.

SPEAKING OF THE NEXT TROUGH, IT IS STILL OVER IN THE WESTERN GULF
RIGHT NOW AND WILL START HEADING EAST TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND RAIN TO THE CENTRAL GULF AND NORTHERN OUTER COAST WEST
OF YAKUTAT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IT DOES NOT QUITE GET TO THE
REST OF THE PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THE SHORT RANGE BUT SOME
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS COULD BE OBSERVED ALONG THE NE GULF COAST BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THROUGH ALL OF THIS, THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE
THEIR ADVANCE AND RETREAT ALONG THE OUTER COAST AND INNER
CHANNELS. DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY CAUSE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO ADVANCE FARTHER INTO THE
INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT THEN WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS. QUITE A FEW AREAS THAT HAVEN`T SEEN THE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY
WILL TONIGHT INCLUDING MANY AREAS ALONG CLARENCE STRAIT, ICE
STRAIT, CHATHAM STRAIT, SUMNER STRAIT AND POSSIBLY EVEN FARTHER
INLAND. THE CLOUDS WILL THEN BURN OFF AGAIN TOMORROW BUT HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN SOME AREAS MAY DELAY THE BURN OFF UNTIL LATER
IN THE DAY OR NOT AT ALL.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH SOME DISAGREEMENT
ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS LEFT OVER THE PANHANDLE
AFTER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE UPPER LOW RETREATS WAS NOTED. ALL IN
ALL THAT DOES NOT AFFECT THE FORECAST TOO MUCH ASIDE FROM HOW MUCH
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER
COAST. GENERALLY FAVORED THE NAM FOR GUIDANCE TODAY.

.LONG TERM...WEAKENING SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN AK GULF AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AK INTERIOR AND YUKON THROUGH
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO REBUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AK
GULF. PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND
YAKUTAT REGION AS ANY ENERGY FROM THE WAVE DISSIPATES PUSHING THE
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE PANHANDLE EASTWARD. CLOUD COVER FROM THE
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT SO EXPECTING
LESS DIURNAL TEMPERATURE VARIATION. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE GULF BY MONDAY WE RETURN TO A SIMILAR WEATHER
PATTERN SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH WARM DAY TIME TEMPS, CLEARER
SKIES, AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT, MARINE STRATUS FORMING
AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY WAVES MOVING IN FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA LATER
IN THE WEEK. DIFFERENCES WILL BE THE RIDGE AXIS MAY HAVE MORE
ONSHORE FLOW WHICH WOULD KEEP IN MORE CLOUD COVER AND THUS SUBDUE
TEMPERATURES. PLUS WHILE MODEL 500 MB HEIGHTS HAD POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN THEY WERE NOT AS ROBUST AS THE
PREVIOUS OMEGA BLOCK. IN ADDITION AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP
NEAR KODIAK FROM A PARENT LOW IN THE BERING SEA TUESDAY THEN CROSS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY. NOT SEEING A CORRESPONDING
SURFACE FEATURE SO THIS MAY BRING JUST MORE CLOUD COVER TO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. BUT HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM. FEEL THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION MOVING IT INTO NORTHERN B.C.
SEEMED MORE REASONABLE, BUT THE 12Z RUNS STARTED TO SLOW DOWN ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION. BY THE END OF THE WEEK HIGHER UNCERTAINTY
WITH WAVES ADVANCING FROM THE WEST. THE GFS KEEPS A BLOCKING
PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG RANGE KEEPING ALONG LOW
WEST OF THE AK GULF WHILE THE ECMWF IN THE PAST TWO RUNS BREAKS
DOWN THE RIDGE BY SATURDAY ALLOWING THESE SYSTEMS INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF.

USED SOME 12Z NAM/GEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE ADVANCING BUT
DISSIPATING SHORT WAVE WHICH THE ECMWF WAS NOT PICKING UP AS MUCH.
MODELS FELL IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER BY MONDAY FOR SURFACE
PRESSURE, BUILDING HIGH AND DID NOT SHOW TOO MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODEL CHOICE FOR THAT TIME IS 00Z ECMWF. LATER
IN THE WEEK WENT WITH ENSEMBLE APPROACH USING NEW WPC GRIDS.
OVERALL CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WERE MINOR BUT WITH MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY STARTING WEDNESDAY EXPECT
FORECAST TO VARY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE INITIALLY THEN
DROPS BELOW AVERAGE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS A BIT MORE LIMITED IN
SCOPE TODAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE HAS LIMITED TEMPERATURES TO THE 60S SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. LESS CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE EXTREME
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND AS A RESULT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE
ONLY GONE BELOW 40 PERCENT IN THE TAIYA RIVER AND CHILKAT RIVER
VALLEYS SO FAR. A FEW OTHER AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER CHANNELS AND
IN AREAS OF LOW CLOUD COVER MAY FOLLOW SUIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BUT WILL LARGELY BE LIMITED IN AREA. FIRE WEATHER WILL
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS CLOUD COVER LINGERS BOTH AT LOW
AND HIGH LEVELS AND ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT. MIN RH VALUES
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE FOR SUN AND MON. FUELS
STILL REMAIN VERY DRY HOWEVER SO EXTRA CARE IS STILL ENCOURAGED
FOR ANY OPEN AIR FIRES. AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILD OVER THE GULF
NEXT WEEK THERE IS POTENTIAL TO RETURN TO FIRE WEATHER PATTERN
WITH LOWER DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY. AS THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST FUEL WILL REMAIN
VERY DRY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE REALLY WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS HAVE CAUSED WATER LEVELS IN SOME AREA RIVERS TO RISE DUE TO
MELTING SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME BUT THE TAIYA RIVER DID APPROACH BANKFULL LAST NIGHT AND
WILL LIKELY DO SO AGAIN TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-022-042.

&&

$$

EAL/PRB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU











000
FXAK67 PAJK 232311
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
311 PM AKDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...COMPLEX WEATHER STORY OVER THE PANHANDLE TODAY. PART
ONE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THAT HAS SPARKED
OFF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. ONE CELL FORMED JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK ON THE PENINSULA BETWEEN PORTLAND CANAL AND BEHM
CANAL BUT PROMPTLY COLLAPSED AS IT TRIED TO MOVE W OVER WATER. A
FEW OTHER T-STORMS HAVE POPPED UP NEAR PRINCE RUPERT, BC BUT THOSE
ALSO COLLAPSED AS THEY MOVED NW OVER PORTLAND CANAL. PART TWO IS
FARTHER NORTH AND TAKES THE FORM OF A SHIELD OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE FROM THE
BC INTERIOR. THESE CLOUDS HAVE CURTAILED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. MOST PLACES ARE STILL SHOWING TEMPS IN THE
50S AND 60S AROUND NOON. FINALLY PART THREE IS THE PERSISTENT
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE OUTER COAST AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. YAKUTAT HAD VISIBILITY AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE THIS
MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME BURNING OFF DUE TO
THE HIGHER CLOUDS AND SOME DEVELOPING WEAK ONSHORE FLOW.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE DOES NOT STICK AROUND
LONG AS IT IS FORECAST TO SLIP SE THIS EVENING TAKING MOST OF ITS
VORTICITY WITH IT. STILL IT WILL STICK AROUND LONG ENOUGH THAT
MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE POSSIBLE. THEY ARE MAINLY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS LINGERING CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING IS
INHIBITING TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING HIGH ENOUGH TO INITIALIZE
CONVECTION FROM SEA LEVEL. GENERAL MOTION OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
FROM THE E AND SE TO THE W AND NW. EXPECT MORE LIGHTNING AND SOME
HEAVY RAIN AS THESE STORMS DEVELOP.

FARTHER NORTH THE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS STUNTED
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BOTH IN THE PANHANDLE AS WELL AS UPSTREAM
IN BC. AS SUCH THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS EVENING FROM
AROUND PETERSBURG NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE VORTICITY
THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS STICKS AROUND AND EVEN DRIFTS
NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. TOMORROW MOST OF THAT VORTICITY STARTS TO
DRIFT BACK EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH IN THE GULF SO THE CLOUD
SHIELD SHOULD START BANKING BACK TO THE EAST TOMORROW BUT ENOUGH
WILL LINGER FOR HIGH TEMPS TO NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S FOR THE MOST
PART.

SPEAKING OF THE NEXT TROUGH, IT IS STILL OVER IN THE WESTERN GULF
RIGHT NOW AND WILL START HEADING EAST TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND RAIN TO THE CENTRAL GULF AND NORTHERN OUTER COAST WEST
OF YAKUTAT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IT DOES NOT QUITE GET TO THE
REST OF THE PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THE SHORT RANGE BUT SOME
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS COULD BE OBSERVED ALONG THE NE GULF COAST BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THROUGH ALL OF THIS, THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE
THEIR ADVANCE AND RETREAT ALONG THE OUTER COAST AND INNER
CHANNELS. DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY CAUSE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO ADVANCE FARTHER INTO THE
INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT THEN WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS. QUITE A FEW AREAS THAT HAVEN`T SEEN THE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY
WILL TONIGHT INCLUDING MANY AREAS ALONG CLARENCE STRAIT, ICE
STRAIT, CHATHAM STRAIT, SUMNER STRAIT AND POSSIBLY EVEN FARTHER
INLAND. THE CLOUDS WILL THEN BURN OFF AGAIN TOMORROW BUT HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN SOME AREAS MAY DELAY THE BURN OFF UNTIL LATER
IN THE DAY OR NOT AT ALL.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH SOME DISAGREEMENT
ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS LEFT OVER THE PANHANDLE
AFTER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE UPPER LOW RETREATS WAS NOTED. ALL IN
ALL THAT DOES NOT AFFECT THE FORECAST TOO MUCH ASIDE FROM HOW MUCH
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER
COAST. GENERALLY FAVORED THE NAM FOR GUIDANCE TODAY.

.LONG TERM...WEAKENING SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN AK GULF AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AK INTERIOR AND YUKON THROUGH
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO REBUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AK
GULF. PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND
YAKUTAT REGION AS ANY ENERGY FROM THE WAVE DISSIPATES PUSHING THE
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE PANHANDLE EASTWARD. CLOUD COVER FROM THE
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT SO EXPECTING
LESS DIURNAL TEMPERATURE VARIATION. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE GULF BY MONDAY WE RETURN TO A SIMILAR WEATHER
PATTERN SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH WARM DAY TIME TEMPS, CLEARER
SKIES, AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT, MARINE STRATUS FORMING
AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY WAVES MOVING IN FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA LATER
IN THE WEEK. DIFFERENCES WILL BE THE RIDGE AXIS MAY HAVE MORE
ONSHORE FLOW WHICH WOULD KEEP IN MORE CLOUD COVER AND THUS SUBDUE
TEMPERATURES. PLUS WHILE MODEL 500 MB HEIGHTS HAD POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN THEY WERE NOT AS ROBUST AS THE
PREVIOUS OMEGA BLOCK. IN ADDITION AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP
NEAR KODIAK FROM A PARENT LOW IN THE BERING SEA TUESDAY THEN CROSS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY. NOT SEEING A CORRESPONDING
SURFACE FEATURE SO THIS MAY BRING JUST MORE CLOUD COVER TO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. BUT HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM. FEEL THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION MOVING IT INTO NORTHERN B.C.
SEEMED MORE REASONABLE, BUT THE 12Z RUNS STARTED TO SLOW DOWN ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION. BY THE END OF THE WEEK HIGHER UNCERTAINTY
WITH WAVES ADVANCING FROM THE WEST. THE GFS KEEPS A BLOCKING
PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG RANGE KEEPING ALONG LOW
WEST OF THE AK GULF WHILE THE ECMWF IN THE PAST TWO RUNS BREAKS
DOWN THE RIDGE BY SATURDAY ALLOWING THESE SYSTEMS INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF.

USED SOME 12Z NAM/GEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE ADVANCING BUT
DISSIPATING SHORT WAVE WHICH THE ECMWF WAS NOT PICKING UP AS MUCH.
MODELS FELL IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER BY MONDAY FOR SURFACE
PRESSURE, BUILDING HIGH AND DID NOT SHOW TOO MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODEL CHOICE FOR THAT TIME IS 00Z ECMWF. LATER
IN THE WEEK WENT WITH ENSEMBLE APPROACH USING NEW WPC GRIDS.
OVERALL CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WERE MINOR BUT WITH MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY STARTING WEDNESDAY EXPECT
FORECAST TO VARY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE INITIALLY THEN
DROPS BELOW AVERAGE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS A BIT MORE LIMITED IN
SCOPE TODAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE HAS LIMITED TEMPERATURES TO THE 60S SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. LESS CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE EXTREME
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND AS A RESULT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE
ONLY GONE BELOW 40 PERCENT IN THE TAIYA RIVER AND CHILKAT RIVER
VALLEYS SO FAR. A FEW OTHER AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER CHANNELS AND
IN AREAS OF LOW CLOUD COVER MAY FOLLOW SUIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BUT WILL LARGELY BE LIMITED IN AREA. FIRE WEATHER WILL
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS CLOUD COVER LINGERS BOTH AT LOW
AND HIGH LEVELS AND ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT. MIN RH VALUES
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE FOR SUN AND MON. FUELS
STILL REMAIN VERY DRY HOWEVER SO EXTRA CARE IS STILL ENCOURAGED
FOR ANY OPEN AIR FIRES. AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILD OVER THE GULF
NEXT WEEK THERE IS POTENTIAL TO RETURN TO FIRE WEATHER PATTERN
WITH LOWER DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY. AS THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST FUEL WILL REMAIN
VERY DRY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE REALLY WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS HAVE CAUSED WATER LEVELS IN SOME AREA RIVERS TO RISE DUE TO
MELTING SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME BUT THE TAIYA RIVER DID APPROACH BANKFULL LAST NIGHT AND
WILL LIKELY DO SO AGAIN TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-022-042.

&&

$$

EAL/PRB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU












000
FXAK67 PAJK 231345
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
545 AM AKDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...CURRENTLY A BIT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...KLAWOCK
VICINITY...HAS SURVIVED THE NIGHT BUT APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING.
MEANWHILE THE YAKUTAT AREA HAS LOW VIS IN FOG AND STRATUS WHILE
THE ANNETTE, KLAWOCK, SITKA AND KETCHIKAN AREAS HAVE SEEN A MARINE
PUSH WITH LOW CIGS. THIS WILL LAST FOR PROBABLY ANOTHER 6 HRS AT
YAKUTAT AND A FEW HOURS AT THE OTHER LOCATIONS. MADE FEW CHANGES
TO INHERITED FORECAST...DID UPDATE GULF WINDS TONIGHT AS NEW OFFSHORE
LOW CIRCULATION ON THE WEST BORDER IS A BIT MORE CLEARLY DEFINED
IN THE NEW MODEL RUNS. USED A NAM/EC COMBO ON THIS UPDATE AS WELL
AS FOR THERMODYNAMIC FIELD UPDATES. TODAY`S ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH ANOTHER LOW-RH DAY OVER ALL BUT
COASTAL AREAS OF PANHANDLE WILL AGAIN BE FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INITIALLY. TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS
WARM AS YESTERDAY IN GENERAL THOUGH WITH INCREASED UPPER CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STORM
MOVEMENT AS FAR WESTWARD TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE LAPSE
RATE IN THE MID-LEVELS. MODIFIED THE INHERITED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO EXPAND A BIT MORE WESTWARD IN THE SOUTH FOR TONIGHT
BUT NOT INTO ZONE 27...ONLY 26, 29 AND PORTIONS OF 28. LATEST
MODELS ALSO HIGHLIGHT AREAS EAST OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS MORE
ACTIVE TONIGHT. OFFSHORE LOW- LEVEL RIDGING WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS
A WEAK FRONT AND A BIT OF LIFT ALOFT BEGIN TO BRUSH THE WESTERN
PORTION OF OUR OFFSHORE AREA...WITH PRECIPITATION APPROACHING
YAKUTAT BY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL A FEW
DEGREES TODAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND A BIT MORE MID/UPPER
CLOUD COVER...UTILIZED MOS TO BUMP AREAS UP A COUPLE DEGREES ON
THE NORTH SIDE.

MARINE PUSH HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR MAKING IT FURTHER INLAND OVER
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES SLOWLY
EASTWARD...HOWEVER THE GRADIENT AND WIND SPEEDS WEAKEN AS THIS
HAPPENS. BEST GUESSES AT THIS POINT...YAKUTAT, GUSTAVUS, SITKA,
KETCHIKAN, ELFIN COVE AND KLAWOCK AREAS WILL SEE MARINE STRATUS.
WINDS IN THE CROSS SOUND AREA WILL LIKELY PICK UP AGAIN DUE TO SEA
BREEZES LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT APPEAR LIKELY TO BE JUST BELOW
SCA- LEVEL. ALSO NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WILL LIKELY REACH 25 KTS OUT
OF THE SOUTH LATER TODAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT AND THIS
SHOULD LAST INTO TONIGHT. OFFSHORE...25KT WESTERLIES/NWLY`S ARE
LIKELY FOR ZONE 42 TODAY BUT SHOULD BE 20KTS GENERALLY IN 41, 43
AND 52.

TAIYA RIVER IN THE SKAGWAY AREA SHOULD BE MONITORED TODAY AS IT IS
CURRENTLY JUST BELOW ACTION STAGE DUE TO SNOW MELT. IT APPEARS TO
HAVE PASSED ITS DIURNAL MAX TODAY AND NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS
EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY FOR THE DRAINAGE.

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE START OF THE
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TO
THE EAST. SITUATION AT THE SURFACE IS SIMILAR, WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA MOVING SOUTHEAST AS A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. PRIME MOVER FOR THESE
CHANGES IS A FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GULF FROM THE WEST. THE
ASSOCIATED LOW IS WELL TO THE WEST AND FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
BERING SEA, SO THE FRONT ITSELF IS NOT EXPECTED TO VERY VERY
STRONG IN TERMS OF WIND OR PRECIPITATION AND A SIGNIFICANT PORTION
OF ITS AVAILABLE ENERGY WILL BE EXPENDED DISPLACING THE SURFACE
HIGH TO THE EAST. THAT SAID, RAIN IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF ZONE 17 ON SUNDAY WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
PROGRESS TO THE EAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS REACHING AS FAR EAST AS
CAPE FAIRWEATHER BY MONDAY MORNING. APART FROM POSSIBLE RAIN IN
YAKUTAT, THE BIGGEST IMPACT OF THIS FRONT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
PANHANDLE. BY TUESDAY, ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD
IN OVER THE GULF FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE AT THAT POINT WITH ECMWF
BEING THE FAVORED SOLUTION. A WEAK UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL TRACK TO THE EAST ALONG THE YUKON/BRITISH
COLUMBIA BORDER ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG AND IN PLACE AND THERMALLY INDUCED
LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THUS, APART FROM
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY/MONDAY THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED RANGE
FORECAST WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING
RECENTLY - A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM
THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOONS, AND A DIURNAL MIGRATION OF THE MARINE
LAYER INTO THE INNER CHANNELS OVERNIGHT WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOONS.

AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH WAS USED FOR PRESSURE AND WIND DIRECTIONS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, TRANSITIONING TO A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WPC THEREAFTER. POP AND QPF FOR THE FRONT
ARE FROM SREF AND GFS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ADJUSTED PER BIAS CORRECTED
MOS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS DRAWING ON BOTH BIAS CORRECTED NAM AND BIA
CORRECTED GFS40. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FORECAST TO REACH THEIR
MINIMUM VALUES TODAY WITH LOWEST VALUES OVER THE EASTER PORTIONS
OF THE PANHANDLE. MINIMUM VALUES DOWN TO THE LOW 20S EXPECTED
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS, BUT WINDS NOT FORECAST TO BE
VERY STRONG, SO NO RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH THE
MORNING FORECAST. GREATEST THREAT OF FIRE THIS WEEKEND WILL COME
FROM HOLIDAY WEEKEND CAMPFIRES AND BON FIRES THAT ARE NOT WELL
TENDED TO AND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. FIRE DANGER SITUATION IMPROVES BEGINNING SUNDAY WITH MINIMUM
RH VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. STILL NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, SO FUELS ON THE
FOREST FLOOR REMAIN DRY AND PRIMED TO BURN.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-042.

&&

$$

WESLEY/FRITSCH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









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