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000
FXAK67 PAJK 310014
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
414 PM AKDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SURFACE LOW SLOWLY
DRIFTING E-NE JUST S OF CAPE SUCKLING. SOME CLEARING EVIDENT WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGE OFFSHORE BUT THIS CONTINUES TO SHRINK IN AREAL
COVERAGE AS CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS SE AK MAINTAINING
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. IMPROVING/DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION SUN
MORNING. MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAINED IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL
THE 12Z RUNS...WHEN THE GFS AND EC RESOLVED A BROAD CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF SUN WHERE PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS HAD
DEPICTED A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE. 12Z NAM WENT WITH A SPLIT LOW...ONE BY YAKUTAT BAY AND
THE OTHER NEAR CAPE DECISION. ELECTED TO GO WITH A GFS/EC BLEND
AND 18Z NAM AND GFS REWARDED THIS DECISION WITH SIMILAR SOLUTIONS.
WEAK RIDGING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT WILL PRODUCE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN
LYNN CANAL RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS BRIEFLY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN EARLY
SUN AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MINOR SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS THE
GULF BRINGING ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER GLOOMY
DAY SUN WITH RAIN AND NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL MODEL AGREEMENT GOOD THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THAT TIME, GFS BUILD IN A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING WELL SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC. UPPER FLOW IN ECMWF ALSO SOUTHWESTERLY, BUT WITH A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA VICE A RIDGE. EC AND GFS REMAIN
OUT OF PHASE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL
RUN.

AT THE SURFACE, EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST BEGINS WITH A LOW CLOSE
ABOARD THE CENTRAL OUTER COAST WITH RAIN EXTENDING FROM YAKUTAT
SOUTH TO THE DIXON ENTRANCE. BEST CHANCE FOR DRY WEATHER SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE HAINES AND SKAGWAY. THE LOW WILL EITHER WEAKEN ALONG
THE OUTER COAST OR DRIFT INLAND AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION DISSIPATING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. SURFACE RIDGING ON TUESDAY SHOULD PRODUCE A BREAK FROM
THE RAIN BUT LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF WILL BACK
TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW DISSIPATES. HAVE TRIMMED BACK
THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS A RESULT. A
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE A WEAK AREA OF PRECIPITATION EAST,
PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS
WILL LINGER OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE
NEXT FRONT PUSHES EAST LATE IN THE WEEK.

USED A BLEND OF GEM AND ECMWF EARLY ON TO KEEP ONE LOW IN THE
EASTERN GULF AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED RANGE VICE TWO SEPARATE
LOWS PER STRAIGHT GEM AND NAM. RESULTING CHANGES INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS OVER THE GULF. EARLY POP FIELDS REMAIN UNCHANGED. GEM AND
ECMWF FOR POP AND QPF TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042.

&&

$$

BC/FRITSCH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 310014
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
414 PM AKDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SURFACE LOW SLOWLY
DRIFTING E-NE JUST S OF CAPE SUCKLING. SOME CLEARING EVIDENT WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGE OFFSHORE BUT THIS CONTINUES TO SHRINK IN AREAL
COVERAGE AS CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS SE AK MAINTAINING
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. IMPROVING/DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION SUN
MORNING. MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAINED IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL
THE 12Z RUNS...WHEN THE GFS AND EC RESOLVED A BROAD CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF SUN WHERE PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS HAD
DEPICTED A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE. 12Z NAM WENT WITH A SPLIT LOW...ONE BY YAKUTAT BAY AND
THE OTHER NEAR CAPE DECISION. ELECTED TO GO WITH A GFS/EC BLEND
AND 18Z NAM AND GFS REWARDED THIS DECISION WITH SIMILAR SOLUTIONS.
WEAK RIDGING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT WILL PRODUCE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN
LYNN CANAL RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS BRIEFLY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN EARLY
SUN AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MINOR SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS THE
GULF BRINGING ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER GLOOMY
DAY SUN WITH RAIN AND NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL MODEL AGREEMENT GOOD THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THAT TIME, GFS BUILD IN A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING WELL SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC. UPPER FLOW IN ECMWF ALSO SOUTHWESTERLY, BUT WITH A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA VICE A RIDGE. EC AND GFS REMAIN
OUT OF PHASE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL
RUN.

AT THE SURFACE, EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST BEGINS WITH A LOW CLOSE
ABOARD THE CENTRAL OUTER COAST WITH RAIN EXTENDING FROM YAKUTAT
SOUTH TO THE DIXON ENTRANCE. BEST CHANCE FOR DRY WEATHER SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE HAINES AND SKAGWAY. THE LOW WILL EITHER WEAKEN ALONG
THE OUTER COAST OR DRIFT INLAND AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION DISSIPATING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. SURFACE RIDGING ON TUESDAY SHOULD PRODUCE A BREAK FROM
THE RAIN BUT LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF WILL BACK
TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW DISSIPATES. HAVE TRIMMED BACK
THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS A RESULT. A
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE A WEAK AREA OF PRECIPITATION EAST,
PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS
WILL LINGER OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE
NEXT FRONT PUSHES EAST LATE IN THE WEEK.

USED A BLEND OF GEM AND ECMWF EARLY ON TO KEEP ONE LOW IN THE
EASTERN GULF AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED RANGE VICE TWO SEPARATE
LOWS PER STRAIGHT GEM AND NAM. RESULTING CHANGES INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS OVER THE GULF. EARLY POP FIELDS REMAIN UNCHANGED. GEM AND
ECMWF FOR POP AND QPF TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042.

&&

$$

BC/FRITSCH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 301338
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
538 AM AKDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE LOOP REVEALS REMNANTS OF
DISSIPATING LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS SLOWLY PASSING THE AREA. A WEAKENING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF WRAPS SHOWER BANDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. PATCHY
FOG FORMS BEHIND THE PASSING SHOWERS. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. WINDS REMAIN IN
LIGHTER SIDE...BUT ROUGH SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MOSTLY REMAIN IN
THE LOWER 50S...EXCEPT SOME SPOTS REPORTING UPPER 40S.

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE WEAKENING LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GULF DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND
PANHANDLE. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF LATE SATURDAY
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE 06Z RUN NAM12
FOR ITS GOOD INITIALIZATION AND CONSISTENCY.

AS THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHEAST
ALASKA...SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME TIGHT MOMENTARILY
TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WIND OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT BY THE EVENING AND EXPECT THE WIND
WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KNOTS FOR TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. ROUGH SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS WELL THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD...NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST AND OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL BECOME SCATTERED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

THE DEVELOPING LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF AND PUSH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS TO THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE
TONIGHT. DUE TO CONTINUED GLOOMY SKIES AND LINGERING
SHOWERS...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 60S OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREAS. EXPECT NOT MUCH DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
FLUCTUATION FOR TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LOCATED
OVER THE SRN BERING SEA THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD
ACROSS SERN AK SUN AND MON. DUE TO MULTIPLE BOUTS OF LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT IMPACTING THE REGION...CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER SLIGHTLY LONGER OVER THE AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
LATEST LONG TERM PACKAGE REFLECTS THIS MODESTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION. STABLE STRATIFORM REGIME WILL INITIALLY BE IN PLACE
OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AND GULF SUN AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL AS THE SECOND
UPPER WAVE ENTERS THE AREA MON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION
TO A CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY REGIME. IN ADDITION...STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH ENHANCED
DESTABILIZATION DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT UPPER VORT LOBE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SERN
GULF AND CNTRL/SRN PANHANDLE MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS POSSIBILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PANHANDLE SUN-MON IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSING UPPER WAVES. LATEST FORECAST CALLS FOR SMALL CRAFT SLY
WINDS OVER CLARENCE STRAIT...WITH ELY SMALL CRAFT WINDS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR CROSS SOUND. IN ADDITION...SEAS OVER THE SRN
OUTSIDE WATERS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RESIDE BETWEEN 6-8 FEET.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS MODERATE SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO THE
SURFACE PRESSURE EVOLUTION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH RESULTS
IN ELEVATED UNCERTAINTY FOR MARINE WINDS/SEAS.

BEYOND MON...MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER
SERN AK TUE AND WED. THIS WILL FAVOR A DRIER AIRMASS...DECREASING
RAIN CHANCES...AND CLEARING SKIES/MODERATING HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE A SERIES OF NRN STREAM IMPULSES MOVING
FROM INTERIOR AK INTO NWRN CANADA...WHICH MAY YIELD
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE FOR THE NRN
HALF OF THE CWA. MODEL OUTPUT THEN SHOWS INCREASING DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE SPREADING NWD OVER THE WRN GULF...WEDGED BETWEEN AN
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NERN PAC AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE
ALEUTIANS. THIS MOISTURE MAY ENTER THE PANHANDLE BY NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...MULTI-MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD WITH
REGARD TO TIMING. THUS...THE FRI-SUN TIME PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED
BY DECREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

OVERALL...THE INHERITED FORECAST GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
MAJOR CHANGE WAS TO PROLONG THE PERIOD OF HIGH POP/S SUN-MON DUE
TO THE MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES PROGNOSED TO TRAVERSE THE CWA.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042.

&&

$$

AHN/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK67 PAJK 301338
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
538 AM AKDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE LOOP REVEALS REMNANTS OF
DISSIPATING LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS SLOWLY PASSING THE AREA. A WEAKENING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF WRAPS SHOWER BANDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. PATCHY
FOG FORMS BEHIND THE PASSING SHOWERS. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. WINDS REMAIN IN
LIGHTER SIDE...BUT ROUGH SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MOSTLY REMAIN IN
THE LOWER 50S...EXCEPT SOME SPOTS REPORTING UPPER 40S.

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE WEAKENING LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GULF DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND
PANHANDLE. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF LATE SATURDAY
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE 06Z RUN NAM12
FOR ITS GOOD INITIALIZATION AND CONSISTENCY.

AS THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHEAST
ALASKA...SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME TIGHT MOMENTARILY
TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WIND OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT BY THE EVENING AND EXPECT THE WIND
WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KNOTS FOR TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. ROUGH SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS WELL THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD...NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST AND OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL BECOME SCATTERED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

THE DEVELOPING LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF AND PUSH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS TO THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE
TONIGHT. DUE TO CONTINUED GLOOMY SKIES AND LINGERING
SHOWERS...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 60S OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREAS. EXPECT NOT MUCH DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
FLUCTUATION FOR TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LOCATED
OVER THE SRN BERING SEA THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD
ACROSS SERN AK SUN AND MON. DUE TO MULTIPLE BOUTS OF LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT IMPACTING THE REGION...CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER SLIGHTLY LONGER OVER THE AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
LATEST LONG TERM PACKAGE REFLECTS THIS MODESTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION. STABLE STRATIFORM REGIME WILL INITIALLY BE IN PLACE
OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AND GULF SUN AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL AS THE SECOND
UPPER WAVE ENTERS THE AREA MON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION
TO A CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY REGIME. IN ADDITION...STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH ENHANCED
DESTABILIZATION DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT UPPER VORT LOBE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SERN
GULF AND CNTRL/SRN PANHANDLE MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS POSSIBILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PANHANDLE SUN-MON IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSING UPPER WAVES. LATEST FORECAST CALLS FOR SMALL CRAFT SLY
WINDS OVER CLARENCE STRAIT...WITH ELY SMALL CRAFT WINDS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR CROSS SOUND. IN ADDITION...SEAS OVER THE SRN
OUTSIDE WATERS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RESIDE BETWEEN 6-8 FEET.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS MODERATE SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO THE
SURFACE PRESSURE EVOLUTION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH RESULTS
IN ELEVATED UNCERTAINTY FOR MARINE WINDS/SEAS.

BEYOND MON...MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER
SERN AK TUE AND WED. THIS WILL FAVOR A DRIER AIRMASS...DECREASING
RAIN CHANCES...AND CLEARING SKIES/MODERATING HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE A SERIES OF NRN STREAM IMPULSES MOVING
FROM INTERIOR AK INTO NWRN CANADA...WHICH MAY YIELD
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE FOR THE NRN
HALF OF THE CWA. MODEL OUTPUT THEN SHOWS INCREASING DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE SPREADING NWD OVER THE WRN GULF...WEDGED BETWEEN AN
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NERN PAC AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE
ALEUTIANS. THIS MOISTURE MAY ENTER THE PANHANDLE BY NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...MULTI-MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD WITH
REGARD TO TIMING. THUS...THE FRI-SUN TIME PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED
BY DECREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

OVERALL...THE INHERITED FORECAST GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
MAJOR CHANGE WAS TO PROLONG THE PERIOD OF HIGH POP/S SUN-MON DUE
TO THE MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES PROGNOSED TO TRAVERSE THE CWA.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042.

&&

$$

AHN/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 292359 COR
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
4 PM AKDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT RANGE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SURFACE LOW JUST
OFF THE SOUTHERN BARANAOF COAST. SURFACE OBS INDICATE SHOWERS
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WITH WINDS EASING AS THE LOW BEGINS TO
FILL. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS LOW CONTINUING TO
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS AND SHOWERS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. ALTHOUGH MODELS MAINTAINED FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT...NO STRIKES EVIDENT TODAY AND WITH WEAKENING
LOW ELECTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF SCHC TSTMS THIS EVENING. THE
UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL ALSO FILL OVERNIGHT
WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF AK FOR SAT.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER SAT MORNING BEFORE SHOWER
COVERAGE INCREASES AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER MINOR SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE PANHANDLE. REFRESHED INHERITED GRIDS WITH NAM
RESULTING IN MINOR CHANGES. WIND STAYED UP IN CLARENCE STRAIT FOR
SMALL CRAFT AT LEAST THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...STRONGEST WEATHER MAP FEATURE IS THE MAJOR UPPER LOW
NEAR BARROW THAT SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST THRU WED. THIS SETS UP A
GENERAL FLOW OF WESTERLIES ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH SOME
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW. THIS RESULTS IN AN UPPER LOW OVER CAPE
SPENCER OR SO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL 29/12Z OPS MODELS AGREE ON
THIS FEATURE TO VARYING DEGREES. AFTER THAT LOOK FOR THAT LOW TO
DIG TO THE SE WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF FOR SOME DRYING.
DONT GET YER HOPES UP TOO MUCH BECAUSE THERE WILL BE WESTERLIES
ALOFT TO KEEP THINGS MOVING AND YOU CAN ALWAYS GET A SHOWER OR TWO
IN THAT TYPE OF FLOW. RAIN AMOUNTS THRU MON WILL BE STEADY BUT NOT
TOO MUCH FOR THE RIVERS. ALSO NOT TOO MUCH WIND WITH THE WEAK
FEATURES SO DIDNT GO OVER 20 KT IN THE MARINE GRAPHICS EXCEPT
PKZ-036. CONFIDENCE MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY. SUNDAY DEVELOPMENT
JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST IS REALLY IFFY AS TO STRENGTH BUT HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.

AS THE MAJOR UPPER LOW MOVES TO BANKS ISL BY THU WE COULD GET A
BETTER UPPER RIDGE BY THEN BUT NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS THE BASIS FOR THE GUIDANCE BY WPC THAT WAS USED
FOR DAYS 4-8. CONFIDENCE MODERATE ABOUT THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT
DETAILS WILL BE REALLY SKETCHY DAYS 4-8.
&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMCR PKZ036 TONIGHT FOR WIND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.

&&

$$

BC/JC

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK67 PAJK 292359 COR
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
4 PM AKDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT RANGE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SURFACE LOW JUST
OFF THE SOUTHERN BARANAOF COAST. SURFACE OBS INDICATE SHOWERS
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WITH WINDS EASING AS THE LOW BEGINS TO
FILL. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS LOW CONTINUING TO
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS AND SHOWERS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. ALTHOUGH MODELS MAINTAINED FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT...NO STRIKES EVIDENT TODAY AND WITH WEAKENING
LOW ELECTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF SCHC TSTMS THIS EVENING. THE
UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL ALSO FILL OVERNIGHT
WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF AK FOR SAT.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER SAT MORNING BEFORE SHOWER
COVERAGE INCREASES AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER MINOR SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE PANHANDLE. REFRESHED INHERITED GRIDS WITH NAM
RESULTING IN MINOR CHANGES. WIND STAYED UP IN CLARENCE STRAIT FOR
SMALL CRAFT AT LEAST THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...STRONGEST WEATHER MAP FEATURE IS THE MAJOR UPPER LOW
NEAR BARROW THAT SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST THRU WED. THIS SETS UP A
GENERAL FLOW OF WESTERLIES ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH SOME
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW. THIS RESULTS IN AN UPPER LOW OVER CAPE
SPENCER OR SO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL 29/12Z OPS MODELS AGREE ON
THIS FEATURE TO VARYING DEGREES. AFTER THAT LOOK FOR THAT LOW TO
DIG TO THE SE WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF FOR SOME DRYING.
DONT GET YER HOPES UP TOO MUCH BECAUSE THERE WILL BE WESTERLIES
ALOFT TO KEEP THINGS MOVING AND YOU CAN ALWAYS GET A SHOWER OR TWO
IN THAT TYPE OF FLOW. RAIN AMOUNTS THRU MON WILL BE STEADY BUT NOT
TOO MUCH FOR THE RIVERS. ALSO NOT TOO MUCH WIND WITH THE WEAK
FEATURES SO DIDNT GO OVER 20 KT IN THE MARINE GRAPHICS EXCEPT
PKZ-036. CONFIDENCE MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY. SUNDAY DEVELOPMENT
JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST IS REALLY IFFY AS TO STRENGTH BUT HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.

AS THE MAJOR UPPER LOW MOVES TO BANKS ISL BY THU WE COULD GET A
BETTER UPPER RIDGE BY THEN BUT NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS THE BASIS FOR THE GUIDANCE BY WPC THAT WAS USED
FOR DAYS 4-8. CONFIDENCE MODERATE ABOUT THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT
DETAILS WILL BE REALLY SKETCHY DAYS 4-8.
&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMCR PKZ036 TONIGHT FOR WIND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.

&&

$$

BC/JC

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 292349
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
4 PM AKDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT RANGE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SURFACE LOW JUST
OFF THE SOUTHERN BARANAOF COAST. SURFACE OBS INDICATE SHOWERS
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WITH WINDS EASING AS THE LOW BEGINS TO
FILL. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS LOW CONTINUING TO
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS AND SHOWERS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. ALTHOUGH MODELS MAINTAINED FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT...NO STRIKES EVIDENT TODAY AND WITH WEAKENING
LOW ELECTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF SCHC TSTMS THIS EVENING. THE
UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL ALSO FILL OVERNIGHT
WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF AK FOR SAT.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER SAT MORNING BEFORE SHOWER
COVERAGE INCREASES AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER MINOR SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE PANHANDLE. REFRESHED INHERITED GRIDS WITH NAM
RESULTING IN MINOR CHANGES.

.LONG TERM...STRONGEST WEATHER MAP FEATURE IS THE MAJOR UPPER LOW
NEAR BARROW THAT SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST THRU WED. THIS SETS UP A
GENERAL FLOW OF WESTERLIES ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH SOME
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW. THIS RESULTS IN AN UPPER LOW OVER CAPE
SPENCER OR SO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL 29/12Z OPS MODELS AGREE ON
THIS FEATURE TO VARYING DEGREES. AFTER THAT LOOK FOR THAT LOW TO
DIG TO THE SE WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF FOR SOME DRYING.
DONT GET YER HOPES UP TOO MUCH BECAUSE THERE WILL BE WESTERLIES
ALOFT TO KEEP THINGS MOVING AND YOU CAN ALWAYS GET A SHOWER OR TWO
IN THAT TYPE OF FLOW. RAIN AMOUNTS THRU MON WILL BE STEADY BUT NOT
TOO MUCH FOR THE RIVERS. ALSO NOT TOO MUCH WIND WITH THE WEAK
FEATURES SO DIDNT GO OVER 20 KT IN THE MARINE GRAPHICS. CONFIDENCE
MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY.

AS THE MAJOR UPPER LOW MOVES TO BANKS ISL BY THU WE COULD GET A
BETTER UPPER RIDGE BY THEN BUT NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS THE BASIS FOR THE GUIDANCE BY WPC THAT WAS USED
FOR DAYS 4-8. CONFIDENCE MODERATE ABOUT THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT
DETAILS WILL BE REALLY SKETCHY DAYS 4-8.
&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.

&&

$$

BC/JC

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 292349
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
4 PM AKDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT RANGE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SURFACE LOW JUST
OFF THE SOUTHERN BARANAOF COAST. SURFACE OBS INDICATE SHOWERS
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WITH WINDS EASING AS THE LOW BEGINS TO
FILL. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS LOW CONTINUING TO
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS AND SHOWERS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. ALTHOUGH MODELS MAINTAINED FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT...NO STRIKES EVIDENT TODAY AND WITH WEAKENING
LOW ELECTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF SCHC TSTMS THIS EVENING. THE
UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL ALSO FILL OVERNIGHT
WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF AK FOR SAT.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER SAT MORNING BEFORE SHOWER
COVERAGE INCREASES AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER MINOR SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE PANHANDLE. REFRESHED INHERITED GRIDS WITH NAM
RESULTING IN MINOR CHANGES.

.LONG TERM...STRONGEST WEATHER MAP FEATURE IS THE MAJOR UPPER LOW
NEAR BARROW THAT SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST THRU WED. THIS SETS UP A
GENERAL FLOW OF WESTERLIES ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH SOME
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW. THIS RESULTS IN AN UPPER LOW OVER CAPE
SPENCER OR SO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL 29/12Z OPS MODELS AGREE ON
THIS FEATURE TO VARYING DEGREES. AFTER THAT LOOK FOR THAT LOW TO
DIG TO THE SE WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF FOR SOME DRYING.
DONT GET YER HOPES UP TOO MUCH BECAUSE THERE WILL BE WESTERLIES
ALOFT TO KEEP THINGS MOVING AND YOU CAN ALWAYS GET A SHOWER OR TWO
IN THAT TYPE OF FLOW. RAIN AMOUNTS THRU MON WILL BE STEADY BUT NOT
TOO MUCH FOR THE RIVERS. ALSO NOT TOO MUCH WIND WITH THE WEAK
FEATURES SO DIDNT GO OVER 20 KT IN THE MARINE GRAPHICS. CONFIDENCE
MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY.

AS THE MAJOR UPPER LOW MOVES TO BANKS ISL BY THU WE COULD GET A
BETTER UPPER RIDGE BY THEN BUT NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS THE BASIS FOR THE GUIDANCE BY WPC THAT WAS USED
FOR DAYS 4-8. CONFIDENCE MODERATE ABOUT THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT
DETAILS WILL BE REALLY SKETCHY DAYS 4-8.
&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.

&&

$$

BC/JC

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK67 PAJK 291321
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
521 AM AKDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARD THE PANHANDLE. INFRA RED SATELLITE LOOP
REVEALS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ABOUT 991
MB...OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF WITH ITS ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT
STRETCHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. A TRIPLE POINT
FORMS NORTH OF BUOY 46184...NORTH NOMAD BUOY...AND PRODUCE 25 TO
30 KNOTS EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND 15 TO
25 KNOT SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS. MULTIPLE
SHOWER BANDS WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND OUTSKIRT TO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE...PRODUCING OCCASIONAL MODERATE RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 40S AT YAKUTAT.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE...FOLLOWED
BY A NEAR ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. THE SURFACE LOW
IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF WILL CONSEQUENTLY WEAKEN TO 1000 MB OVER
THE EASTERN GULF THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. REFRESHED
THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE 06Z RUN NAM12 AND MADE A
FEW FINE TUNES FOR THE POP/QPF FIELDS. MAINTAINED WIND FIELDS IN
WEAKENING TREND THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW WEAKENS.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE A BIT
WARMER TO THE LOWER 60S. CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP
THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WITHIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR TONIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE OUTSIDE
WATERS TODAY...INCLUDING CROSS SOUND...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INITIALLY TOUCHES THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL OVER FREDERICK SOUND SOUTH TO
CLARENCE STRAIT THIS MORNING. CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE MAIN
PANHANDLE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND GIVE
LOWERED POPS OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE BY
EARLY EVENING HOURS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AREAS FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...WET WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. POTENTIAL DRYING MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

 THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS VERY ACTIVE FOR THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A 110-KT JET BRINGING SYSTEMS FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. WITH ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE, DO EXPECT SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA. THERE IS A SHORT
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE JET STREAM, AND THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BRING
ENHANCED STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION TO THE PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY.
RIGHT NOW, MODELS ARE PROJECTING THIS SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE TO
BRING CATEGORICAL PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WHILE
THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE SHOULD SEE LIKELY POP.

 A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW RIGHT BEHIND THE FOOTSTEP OF
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ONCE AGAIN ENHANCE THE
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE, RIDGING WILL REBUILD ACROSS
THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS ARE HINTING ON A DRYING TREND MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE.

 FORECAST CONFIDENCE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND,
THEN DECREASES TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND
BEYOND. UTILIZE A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE IN UPDATING THE
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-034>036-041>043-051-052.

&&

$$

AHN/RCL

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 291321
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
521 AM AKDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARD THE PANHANDLE. INFRA RED SATELLITE LOOP
REVEALS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ABOUT 991
MB...OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF WITH ITS ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT
STRETCHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. A TRIPLE POINT
FORMS NORTH OF BUOY 46184...NORTH NOMAD BUOY...AND PRODUCE 25 TO
30 KNOTS EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND 15 TO
25 KNOT SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS. MULTIPLE
SHOWER BANDS WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND OUTSKIRT TO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE...PRODUCING OCCASIONAL MODERATE RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 40S AT YAKUTAT.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE...FOLLOWED
BY A NEAR ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. THE SURFACE LOW
IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF WILL CONSEQUENTLY WEAKEN TO 1000 MB OVER
THE EASTERN GULF THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. REFRESHED
THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE 06Z RUN NAM12 AND MADE A
FEW FINE TUNES FOR THE POP/QPF FIELDS. MAINTAINED WIND FIELDS IN
WEAKENING TREND THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW WEAKENS.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE A BIT
WARMER TO THE LOWER 60S. CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP
THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WITHIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR TONIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE OUTSIDE
WATERS TODAY...INCLUDING CROSS SOUND...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INITIALLY TOUCHES THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL OVER FREDERICK SOUND SOUTH TO
CLARENCE STRAIT THIS MORNING. CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE MAIN
PANHANDLE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND GIVE
LOWERED POPS OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE BY
EARLY EVENING HOURS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AREAS FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...WET WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. POTENTIAL DRYING MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

 THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS VERY ACTIVE FOR THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A 110-KT JET BRINGING SYSTEMS FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. WITH ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE, DO EXPECT SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA. THERE IS A SHORT
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE JET STREAM, AND THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BRING
ENHANCED STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION TO THE PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY.
RIGHT NOW, MODELS ARE PROJECTING THIS SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE TO
BRING CATEGORICAL PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WHILE
THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE SHOULD SEE LIKELY POP.

 A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW RIGHT BEHIND THE FOOTSTEP OF
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ONCE AGAIN ENHANCE THE
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE, RIDGING WILL REBUILD ACROSS
THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS ARE HINTING ON A DRYING TREND MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE.

 FORECAST CONFIDENCE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND,
THEN DECREASES TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND
BEYOND. UTILIZE A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE IN UPDATING THE
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-034>036-041>043-051-052.

&&

$$

AHN/RCL

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 282325
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
325 PM AKDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER DAY ANOTHER LOW. THIS ONE...ALREADY OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF...WILL SLOW ITS MOMENTUM AS THE MAIN JET ON ITS
BACKSIDE WILL CONTINUE DIVING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.
THIS LOW WILL APPROACH BARANOF ISLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION FOR GOOD MOISTURE
SPREADING INTO THE PANHANDLE IN THE FORM OF RAIN ALREADY HAVING
BEGUN IN YAKUTAT LAST NIGHT AND SLOWLY SPREADING COASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON. WE CANNOT DENY THAT MUCH OF THE RAIN AROUND YAKUTAT IS
A LITTLE SHOWERY IN NATURE. THE AIR MASS HAS CHANGED LITTLE AND
EVEN CONSIDERED GOING WITH SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD
SOUTHEAST-WIDE. BUT THE SHAPE OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS BEHAVIOR FELL
IN LINE JUST ENOUGH WITH CLASSIC NORWEGIAN MODEL OF CYCLONES. THE
MOIST CONVEYOR BELT WILL BE STRATIFORM AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...EVEN
THOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT ONLY MODERATE SLIGHTLY...WHILE THE AREAS
BEHIND AND UNDERNEATH ITS CENTER WILL BE CONVECTIVE WITH THE
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR. CONTINUED AND EXPANDED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM ZONE 43 SOUTH. CONSIDERED ADDING SITKA BUT SREF PROBABILITIES
FOR LIFTED INDICES LESS THAN NEGATIVE ONE SEEMED TO BACK OFF FROM
BARANOF ISLAND...ALTHOUGH CAPE FROM GFS AND NAM DOES REACH THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. EVEN WITH PARAMETERS
INDICATING POSITIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, THEY
ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT IN THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT OF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. WE KEPT THE IDEA OF SPREADING THE CONVECTION
ONSHORE IN ALL BUT THE NORTHERN INTERIOR PANHANDLE FOR FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD CORE`S PROXIMITY INCREASES WITH THE LOW`S
APPROACH. FINALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WE PAINT EVERYTHING AS SHOWERS.
PRECIPITATION WILL START TO DRAW SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FOCUS DIRECTS MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. YAKUTAT MAY
INDEED DRY OUT A LITTLE DUE TO MORE OFFSHORE COMPONENT OF MID-
LEVEL FLOW.

EMPLOYED A LOT OF NAM 850 WINDS TO DICTATE WIND FLOW...ESPECIALLY
IN SPOTS WHERE GRADIENT IS PARALLEL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE.
THIS ENSURES MOST PLACES REMAIN SOUTH. A FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING CAUSING WINDS TO
ACCELERATE NEAR HYDABURG, LINCOLN ROCK, AND EVEN BARANOF ISLAND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL RISE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE NORTH TO JUNEAU BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS NOT A VERY STRONG FRONT AS THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC ZONE, BUT SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY BE MET IN
FREDERICK SOUND, AND CLARENCE MAY APPROACH GALE.

USED NAM/ECMWF FOR PRESSURE/WIND UPDATES. SOME HELP FROM SREF AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
FIRST WILL BE PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FRI NIGHT.
INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE FRI EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT MOVE INLAND. MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY SAT
BEFORE PRECIPITATION BECOMES STRATIFORM AS THE NEXT WAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION HEADING INTO SUN. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE THIRD WAVE IMPACTS THE
REGION. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH NAM/EC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MINOR OVERALL CHANGES. ZONAL FLOW
PERSISTS THROUGH TUE BEFORE MODELS TREND TOWARDS A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GULF. 00Z EC SHOWED TROUGHING MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
WHILE 12Z SOLUTION IS RIDGING. GIVEN THE POOR CONTINUITY...TRENDED
FORECAST TOWARDS WPC GUIDANCE. OVERALL...ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONFIDENCE DECREASING TO
BELOW AVERAGE BY MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-033>036-041>043-051-052.

&&

$$

JWA/BC

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 282325
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
325 PM AKDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER DAY ANOTHER LOW. THIS ONE...ALREADY OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF...WILL SLOW ITS MOMENTUM AS THE MAIN JET ON ITS
BACKSIDE WILL CONTINUE DIVING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.
THIS LOW WILL APPROACH BARANOF ISLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION FOR GOOD MOISTURE
SPREADING INTO THE PANHANDLE IN THE FORM OF RAIN ALREADY HAVING
BEGUN IN YAKUTAT LAST NIGHT AND SLOWLY SPREADING COASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON. WE CANNOT DENY THAT MUCH OF THE RAIN AROUND YAKUTAT IS
A LITTLE SHOWERY IN NATURE. THE AIR MASS HAS CHANGED LITTLE AND
EVEN CONSIDERED GOING WITH SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD
SOUTHEAST-WIDE. BUT THE SHAPE OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS BEHAVIOR FELL
IN LINE JUST ENOUGH WITH CLASSIC NORWEGIAN MODEL OF CYCLONES. THE
MOIST CONVEYOR BELT WILL BE STRATIFORM AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...EVEN
THOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT ONLY MODERATE SLIGHTLY...WHILE THE AREAS
BEHIND AND UNDERNEATH ITS CENTER WILL BE CONVECTIVE WITH THE
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR. CONTINUED AND EXPANDED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM ZONE 43 SOUTH. CONSIDERED ADDING SITKA BUT SREF PROBABILITIES
FOR LIFTED INDICES LESS THAN NEGATIVE ONE SEEMED TO BACK OFF FROM
BARANOF ISLAND...ALTHOUGH CAPE FROM GFS AND NAM DOES REACH THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. EVEN WITH PARAMETERS
INDICATING POSITIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, THEY
ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT IN THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT OF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. WE KEPT THE IDEA OF SPREADING THE CONVECTION
ONSHORE IN ALL BUT THE NORTHERN INTERIOR PANHANDLE FOR FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD CORE`S PROXIMITY INCREASES WITH THE LOW`S
APPROACH. FINALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WE PAINT EVERYTHING AS SHOWERS.
PRECIPITATION WILL START TO DRAW SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FOCUS DIRECTS MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. YAKUTAT MAY
INDEED DRY OUT A LITTLE DUE TO MORE OFFSHORE COMPONENT OF MID-
LEVEL FLOW.

EMPLOYED A LOT OF NAM 850 WINDS TO DICTATE WIND FLOW...ESPECIALLY
IN SPOTS WHERE GRADIENT IS PARALLEL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE.
THIS ENSURES MOST PLACES REMAIN SOUTH. A FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING CAUSING WINDS TO
ACCELERATE NEAR HYDABURG, LINCOLN ROCK, AND EVEN BARANOF ISLAND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL RISE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE NORTH TO JUNEAU BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS NOT A VERY STRONG FRONT AS THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC ZONE, BUT SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY BE MET IN
FREDERICK SOUND, AND CLARENCE MAY APPROACH GALE.

USED NAM/ECMWF FOR PRESSURE/WIND UPDATES. SOME HELP FROM SREF AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
FIRST WILL BE PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FRI NIGHT.
INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE FRI EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT MOVE INLAND. MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY SAT
BEFORE PRECIPITATION BECOMES STRATIFORM AS THE NEXT WAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION HEADING INTO SUN. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE THIRD WAVE IMPACTS THE
REGION. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH NAM/EC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MINOR OVERALL CHANGES. ZONAL FLOW
PERSISTS THROUGH TUE BEFORE MODELS TREND TOWARDS A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GULF. 00Z EC SHOWED TROUGHING MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
WHILE 12Z SOLUTION IS RIDGING. GIVEN THE POOR CONTINUITY...TRENDED
FORECAST TOWARDS WPC GUIDANCE. OVERALL...ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONFIDENCE DECREASING TO
BELOW AVERAGE BY MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-033>036-041>043-051-052.

&&

$$

JWA/BC

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 281250
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
450 AM AKDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...RADIATION FOG HAS BEEN A FACTOR IN A COUPLE SOUTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT...MOST PROBLEMATIC AT PETERSBURG AND OCCASIONAL AT AJN.
LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED AT YAKUTAT TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO NEW
STORM CENTER ENTERING THE GULF. LOW CENTER OVER WESTERN GULF IS
MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD AND NICE OCCLUSION SHOULD FORM TODAY OVER
THE EASTERN GULF. LOW IS AIDED BY DYNAMIC JET ALOFT ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS SETUP HAS RESULTED IN SCA FOR MARINE
ZONES ADJACENT TO THE COAST AS WELL AS NORTHERN LYNN, SUMNER AND
CLARENCE AS THE LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD. WE WENT WITH 15-20KT
WINDS IN CROSS SOUND AND YAKUTAT BAY BUT THESE WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. WE STRUGGLED WITH N VS S WINDS IN SOME OF THE INNER
CHANNELS AND ENDED UP GOING MOSTLY WITH S. ISOLATED CONVECTION
LIKELY TO BE FACTOR TODAY OFFSHORE AND A POSSIBILITY PROGRESSING
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY EARLY
FRIDAY.

MODEL FIELDS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
00Z NAM WHICH SEEMED TO UNDERDO SPINUP OF THE GULF LOW TODAY. WE
ELECTED TO GO WITH MINOR CHANGES IN WINDS WITH A COMBO OF GFS AND
ECMWF LOW-LEVEL FIELDS. MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THREAT FOR PROBLEMATIC RAIN
AMOUNTS THUS SEEMS TO BE LOW ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE FOR THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS OVER THE GULF AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WITH THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF...THEN WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN GULF WITH THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. MAINTAINED POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM WORDING FOR
FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OUTSIDE WATERS ON FRIDAY. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST
PACKAGE WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS GOOD
INITIALIZATION AND CONSISTENCY. OVERALL CHANGES WERE MINOR AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

STAYED WITH THE WPC ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD. THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE...FOLLOWED BY NEAR ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO
SIGNIFICANT WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH DECREASING POPS. WITH
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY...STILL EXPECT ANOTHER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
GULF AND ONSHORE OVER THE PANHANDLE ON LABOR DAY HOLIDAY THROUGH
THE MID WEEK. MAINTAINED GENERALLY WET WEATHER WITH LIKELY LEVEL
POPS OVER THE MAIN PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FALLS BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-035-036-041>043-051-052.

&&

$$

WESLEY/BEZENEK/AHN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 281250
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
450 AM AKDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...RADIATION FOG HAS BEEN A FACTOR IN A COUPLE SOUTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT...MOST PROBLEMATIC AT PETERSBURG AND OCCASIONAL AT AJN.
LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED AT YAKUTAT TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO NEW
STORM CENTER ENTERING THE GULF. LOW CENTER OVER WESTERN GULF IS
MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD AND NICE OCCLUSION SHOULD FORM TODAY OVER
THE EASTERN GULF. LOW IS AIDED BY DYNAMIC JET ALOFT ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS SETUP HAS RESULTED IN SCA FOR MARINE
ZONES ADJACENT TO THE COAST AS WELL AS NORTHERN LYNN, SUMNER AND
CLARENCE AS THE LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD. WE WENT WITH 15-20KT
WINDS IN CROSS SOUND AND YAKUTAT BAY BUT THESE WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. WE STRUGGLED WITH N VS S WINDS IN SOME OF THE INNER
CHANNELS AND ENDED UP GOING MOSTLY WITH S. ISOLATED CONVECTION
LIKELY TO BE FACTOR TODAY OFFSHORE AND A POSSIBILITY PROGRESSING
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY EARLY
FRIDAY.

MODEL FIELDS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
00Z NAM WHICH SEEMED TO UNDERDO SPINUP OF THE GULF LOW TODAY. WE
ELECTED TO GO WITH MINOR CHANGES IN WINDS WITH A COMBO OF GFS AND
ECMWF LOW-LEVEL FIELDS. MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THREAT FOR PROBLEMATIC RAIN
AMOUNTS THUS SEEMS TO BE LOW ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE FOR THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS OVER THE GULF AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WITH THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF...THEN WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN GULF WITH THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. MAINTAINED POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM WORDING FOR
FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OUTSIDE WATERS ON FRIDAY. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST
PACKAGE WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS GOOD
INITIALIZATION AND CONSISTENCY. OVERALL CHANGES WERE MINOR AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

STAYED WITH THE WPC ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD. THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE...FOLLOWED BY NEAR ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO
SIGNIFICANT WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH DECREASING POPS. WITH
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY...STILL EXPECT ANOTHER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
GULF AND ONSHORE OVER THE PANHANDLE ON LABOR DAY HOLIDAY THROUGH
THE MID WEEK. MAINTAINED GENERALLY WET WEATHER WITH LIKELY LEVEL
POPS OVER THE MAIN PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FALLS BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-035-036-041>043-051-052.

&&

$$

WESLEY/BEZENEK/AHN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU










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