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000
FXAK67 PAJK 051317
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
517 AM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...A GALE FORCE FRONT MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STEADY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT FROM SITKA TO ANGOON
AND NORTHWARD. THE AREA OF STEADY RAIN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND LESSEN IN INTENSITY ESPECIALLY OVER THE INNER CHANNELS
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
SHORTWAVE RIDGING. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD, RAINFALL
RATES WILL AGAIN INTENSIFY AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, EXPECT RAINFALL RATES TO
INCREASE MID TO LATE EVENING OVER THE OUTER COAST AND LATE TONIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL RESULTING IN
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY RAINFALL. 24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD, STEADY RAIN WILL HAVE PROGRESSED AS FAR SOUTH AS SUMNER
STRAIT WITH THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE STILL REMAINING DRY. REFER
TO THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
EXPECTED RAINFALL.

STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT WINDS IN LYNN CANAL AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN
SKAGWAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS IN RESPONSE
THE APPROACHING FRONT WITH GALES OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. THESE
WINDS WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT WITH SMALL
CRAFTS OVER MANY OF THE INNER CHANNELS AND INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND OVER LAND.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL CHANGE FROM HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL INHIBIT TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MINIMAL AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. RELIED ON THE HIRES ARW/NMM FOR MANY FIELDS.
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF AND DISSIPATE ALONG
THE CENTRAL OUTER COAST SAT EVENING. LOOKS LIKE A RIDGE WILL TRY
TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING ON THIS. ENDED UP USING A BLEND OF THE 00Z
GEM/ECMWF FOR FRI-SAT NIGHT...THEN PRETTY MUCH LEFT REST OF
FORECAST AS IS.

STILL LOOKS LIKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH FRI EVENING AT LEAST. A GENERAL 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE N HALF OF THE AREA. LOOKING
LIKE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT SO LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT THE SRN AREA WILL
SEE A PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL. PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE INTO SAT NIGHT AS LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE GULF AND DISSIPATES ALONG THE OUTER COAST. SHOULD SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. WILL LIKELY
STILL HAVE DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER BUT THE PRECIP THREAT WILL
DIMINISH.

NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN A LONGER DRY SPELL IS WAVERING AS MODELS
HINT THAT SYSTEMS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA AT TIMES. COULD BE
ONE SYSTEM FOR MON NIGHT...AND POTENTIALLY ANOTHER FOR LATE WEEK.
UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS TIME PERIOD
THOUGH...FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031>036-041-042-053.
&&

$$

TPS/RWT

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU





000
FXAK67 PAJK 051317
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
517 AM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...A GALE FORCE FRONT MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STEADY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT FROM SITKA TO ANGOON
AND NORTHWARD. THE AREA OF STEADY RAIN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND LESSEN IN INTENSITY ESPECIALLY OVER THE INNER CHANNELS
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
SHORTWAVE RIDGING. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD, RAINFALL
RATES WILL AGAIN INTENSIFY AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, EXPECT RAINFALL RATES TO
INCREASE MID TO LATE EVENING OVER THE OUTER COAST AND LATE TONIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL RESULTING IN
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY RAINFALL. 24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD, STEADY RAIN WILL HAVE PROGRESSED AS FAR SOUTH AS SUMNER
STRAIT WITH THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE STILL REMAINING DRY. REFER
TO THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
EXPECTED RAINFALL.

STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT WINDS IN LYNN CANAL AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN
SKAGWAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS IN RESPONSE
THE APPROACHING FRONT WITH GALES OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. THESE
WINDS WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT WITH SMALL
CRAFTS OVER MANY OF THE INNER CHANNELS AND INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND OVER LAND.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL CHANGE FROM HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL INHIBIT TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MINIMAL AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. RELIED ON THE HIRES ARW/NMM FOR MANY FIELDS.
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF AND DISSIPATE ALONG
THE CENTRAL OUTER COAST SAT EVENING. LOOKS LIKE A RIDGE WILL TRY
TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING ON THIS. ENDED UP USING A BLEND OF THE 00Z
GEM/ECMWF FOR FRI-SAT NIGHT...THEN PRETTY MUCH LEFT REST OF
FORECAST AS IS.

STILL LOOKS LIKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH FRI EVENING AT LEAST. A GENERAL 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE N HALF OF THE AREA. LOOKING
LIKE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT SO LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT THE SRN AREA WILL
SEE A PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL. PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE INTO SAT NIGHT AS LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE GULF AND DISSIPATES ALONG THE OUTER COAST. SHOULD SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. WILL LIKELY
STILL HAVE DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER BUT THE PRECIP THREAT WILL
DIMINISH.

NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN A LONGER DRY SPELL IS WAVERING AS MODELS
HINT THAT SYSTEMS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA AT TIMES. COULD BE
ONE SYSTEM FOR MON NIGHT...AND POTENTIALLY ANOTHER FOR LATE WEEK.
UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS TIME PERIOD
THOUGH...FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031>036-041-042-053.
&&

$$

TPS/RWT

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU





000
FXAK67 PAJK 050000
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT 24+ HOURS. THIS
AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PASSING OVER THE AREA WITH SUNNY
BREAKS IN BETWEEN. GUSTY WINDS HAVE ACCOMPANIED THE SHOWERS.
EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH SOME
SEA BREEZES. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE SHOWERS DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. MEANWHILE A
FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NE GULF WITH RAIN ON THE DOORSTEP OF
YAKUTAT. EXPECT THIS RAIN BAND TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND. THE
NORTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS WILL SEE S-SE 25-35KT WINDS ALONG THIS
FIRST FRONT THIS EVENING...THEN DECREASE FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE
THE NEXT STRONGER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 30-40KT FOR A MUCH
LARGER PORTION OF THE GULF.

BY MORNING THE TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MERGE TOGETHER WITH A
SHORT BREAK IN PRECIP FOR YAKUTAT BUT NO DISCERNIBLE BREAK FOR
THE NORTH/CENTRAL PANHANDLE INCLUDING JUNEAU. THE UPPER LEVEL JET
POINTS THE LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE AT THE NE GULF COAST BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH RAIN BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES IN YAKUTAT AND MOD-HVY
AT TIMES FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. THE FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS LOOK TO STAY OUT OF THE FIRE HOSE FOR NOW...AND SHOULD SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY.

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. ONLY MADE SMALL
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LOCAL
EFFECTS. ONE FORECAST CHALLENGE HAS BEEN WITH THE GUSTY WINDS NEAR
SHOWERS AND ENHANCEMENT MY SEA BREEZES.

.LONG TERM.../ THURSDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY / MAIN RAIN EVENT TO
IMPACT SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING THEN STARTING TO
IMPROVE. RAIN TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST IN A 24 TO 30 HOUR
PERIOD. WILL NEED TO KEEP A GOOD EYE ON STREAMS AND RIVERS FOR
THIS SITUATION AS THE RAPID RISES ON THE STREAMS AND RIVERS COULD
REACH OR EXCEED BANKFULL LEVELS. HAVE CONTINUED THE SPECIAL
WEATHER WEATHER STATEMENT PER COORDINATION WITH RIVER FORECAST
CENTER FOR THE HEAVY RAINS LEADING TO THE WEEKEND.

THE FRONTAL BAND WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
FRIDAY TO EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT RAINS OF 1 TO 3 TENTHES AN HOUR FOR
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. SHOWERS IN THE ONSHORE FLOW AND ROTATING
ABOUT THE WEAKENING SURFACE FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND
AND INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY AND ENDING
FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT.

BEHIND THE LOW AS IT DISSIPATES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE IS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF. THIS APPEARS TO HINT AT A
PATTERN SHIFT FOR THE AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SOME ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE / HIGH HEADED INTO NEXT WEEK HOWEVER THE
OVERALL IDEA IS THE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE
DIVERTED SOUTH OF THE GULF. LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING DRY
WEATHER...ALTHOUGH NOT NECESSARY SUNNY SKIES.

GALE FORCES TO MAX SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR THE OUTER GULF COAST
WATERS SPREADING IN THURSDAY EVENING TO EARLY FRIDAY. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AND EYE FOR THE GUSTY LOCATIONS TO SEE IF A STRONG WIND
HEADLINE OR TWO IS NEEDED.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-041-042.
&&

$$

FERRIN/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU





000
FXAK67 PAJK 050000
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT 24+ HOURS. THIS
AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PASSING OVER THE AREA WITH SUNNY
BREAKS IN BETWEEN. GUSTY WINDS HAVE ACCOMPANIED THE SHOWERS.
EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH SOME
SEA BREEZES. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE SHOWERS DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. MEANWHILE A
FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NE GULF WITH RAIN ON THE DOORSTEP OF
YAKUTAT. EXPECT THIS RAIN BAND TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND. THE
NORTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS WILL SEE S-SE 25-35KT WINDS ALONG THIS
FIRST FRONT THIS EVENING...THEN DECREASE FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE
THE NEXT STRONGER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 30-40KT FOR A MUCH
LARGER PORTION OF THE GULF.

BY MORNING THE TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MERGE TOGETHER WITH A
SHORT BREAK IN PRECIP FOR YAKUTAT BUT NO DISCERNIBLE BREAK FOR
THE NORTH/CENTRAL PANHANDLE INCLUDING JUNEAU. THE UPPER LEVEL JET
POINTS THE LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE AT THE NE GULF COAST BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH RAIN BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES IN YAKUTAT AND MOD-HVY
AT TIMES FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. THE FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS LOOK TO STAY OUT OF THE FIRE HOSE FOR NOW...AND SHOULD SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY.

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. ONLY MADE SMALL
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LOCAL
EFFECTS. ONE FORECAST CHALLENGE HAS BEEN WITH THE GUSTY WINDS NEAR
SHOWERS AND ENHANCEMENT MY SEA BREEZES.

.LONG TERM.../ THURSDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY / MAIN RAIN EVENT TO
IMPACT SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING THEN STARTING TO
IMPROVE. RAIN TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST IN A 24 TO 30 HOUR
PERIOD. WILL NEED TO KEEP A GOOD EYE ON STREAMS AND RIVERS FOR
THIS SITUATION AS THE RAPID RISES ON THE STREAMS AND RIVERS COULD
REACH OR EXCEED BANKFULL LEVELS. HAVE CONTINUED THE SPECIAL
WEATHER WEATHER STATEMENT PER COORDINATION WITH RIVER FORECAST
CENTER FOR THE HEAVY RAINS LEADING TO THE WEEKEND.

THE FRONTAL BAND WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
FRIDAY TO EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT RAINS OF 1 TO 3 TENTHES AN HOUR FOR
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. SHOWERS IN THE ONSHORE FLOW AND ROTATING
ABOUT THE WEAKENING SURFACE FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND
AND INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY AND ENDING
FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT.

BEHIND THE LOW AS IT DISSIPATES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE IS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF. THIS APPEARS TO HINT AT A
PATTERN SHIFT FOR THE AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SOME ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE / HIGH HEADED INTO NEXT WEEK HOWEVER THE
OVERALL IDEA IS THE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE
DIVERTED SOUTH OF THE GULF. LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING DRY
WEATHER...ALTHOUGH NOT NECESSARY SUNNY SKIES.

GALE FORCES TO MAX SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR THE OUTER GULF COAST
WATERS SPREADING IN THURSDAY EVENING TO EARLY FRIDAY. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AND EYE FOR THE GUSTY LOCATIONS TO SEE IF A STRONG WIND
HEADLINE OR TWO IS NEEDED.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-041-042.
&&

$$

FERRIN/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU





000
FXAK67 PAJK 041334
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
534 AM AKDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
PANHANDLE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
WEAK TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL SEND A WEATHER
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER MORE
POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE RIGHT ON ITS HEELS FOR THURSDAY.
MORE ON THAT SYSTEM IN THE LONG RANGE SECTION BELOW.

MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND WIND SPEEDS OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT.

PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. A BRIEF DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE RIDGE SHARPENS IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT. RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF COAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE REMAINDER OF
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY LATE EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
CONFINED TO ROUGHLY FREDERICK SOUND AND NORTHWARD TONIGHT AS
RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

A GENERALLY WEAK WIND REGIME IS PRESENT THIS MORNING OVER THE
PANHANDLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS WITH 15 KT IN LYNN CANAL AND GUSTS TO 20 KT AT THE
SKAGWAY AIRPORT. THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. 700 MB SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES TO 30-35 KT BY LATE TONIGHT OVER LYNN CANAL WHICH
WILL SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND CONTINUED GUSTS IN THE SKAGWAY
AREA. FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, 10-20 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAND AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT, WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

USED THE 00Z GFS AND THE HIRES ARW/NMM FOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN GULF BY THU
AFTERNOON...THEN HANG UP AS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES NE ALONG IT
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH SLOWLY
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRI THRU SAT. THERE MAY END UP BEING ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SRN AREA SAT AS WELL...BUT
MODELS DIFFER ON THIS. MAY SEE A QUIETER/DRIER PATTERN DEVELOP
FOR NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS HINTING AT RIDGING OVER THE GULF THAT
MIGHT KEEP SYSTEMS TO THE S AND W OF THE AREA.

STILL LOOKS LIKE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR LATE
WEEK ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS IN SOME AREAS. INITIALLY
ON THU...INCREASED WARM ADVECTION OVER LEFTOVER FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL AREA WILL KEEP PRECIP GOING OVER THE N-CENTRAL AREA AT
LEAST. THEN PRECIP BAND WITH MAIN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SPREAD NE
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT GALE FORCE
WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY
OVER THE N GULF. THE FAR SERN AREA THOUGH WILL BE PROTECTED BY A
STRONG RIDGE BUILDING INTO SRN BC...SO THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE
HELD UP MOSTLY TO THE NW OF THAT AREA INTO AT LEAST FRI MORNING.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD FALL OVER THE NRN PANHANDLE AND NE GULF
COAST THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI. STILL LOOKS LIKE 2-4 INCHES OR MORE
OF RAIN DURING THAT TIME FRAME. DID INCREASE WINDS SOME FOR THE
INNER CHANNELS WITH THE BIGGEST INCREASE OVER LYNN CANAL AS
MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE LEE TROF IN LOWER
LEVELS NEAR PAGY THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.

EVENTUALLY THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SRN PANHANDLE
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS FRONT DRIFTS SE INTO THAT AREA AND
POTENTIALLY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THEM. LOOKS
LIKE THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SAT
EVENING...BUT UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS AND KEEP SOME THREAT FOR
PRECIP GOING INTO SAT NIGHT AND SUN.

STILL LOOKING LIKE A MUCH NEEDED BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER AND/OR W OF THE
AREA. MODELS DIFFER ON SHAPE OF THE RIDGE AND WHETHER ANY SYSTEM
MIGHT BE ABLE TO SNEAK THROUGH IT INTO THE AREA FROM EITHER THE S
OR W. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ADJUST THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IF
NEEDED.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-043-051.
&&

$$

TPS/RWT

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU





000
FXAK67 PAJK 041334
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
534 AM AKDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
PANHANDLE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
WEAK TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL SEND A WEATHER
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER MORE
POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE RIGHT ON ITS HEELS FOR THURSDAY.
MORE ON THAT SYSTEM IN THE LONG RANGE SECTION BELOW.

MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND WIND SPEEDS OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT.

PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. A BRIEF DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE RIDGE SHARPENS IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT. RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF COAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE REMAINDER OF
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY LATE EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
CONFINED TO ROUGHLY FREDERICK SOUND AND NORTHWARD TONIGHT AS
RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

A GENERALLY WEAK WIND REGIME IS PRESENT THIS MORNING OVER THE
PANHANDLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS WITH 15 KT IN LYNN CANAL AND GUSTS TO 20 KT AT THE
SKAGWAY AIRPORT. THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. 700 MB SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES TO 30-35 KT BY LATE TONIGHT OVER LYNN CANAL WHICH
WILL SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND CONTINUED GUSTS IN THE SKAGWAY
AREA. FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, 10-20 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAND AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT, WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

USED THE 00Z GFS AND THE HIRES ARW/NMM FOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN GULF BY THU
AFTERNOON...THEN HANG UP AS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES NE ALONG IT
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH SLOWLY
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRI THRU SAT. THERE MAY END UP BEING ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SRN AREA SAT AS WELL...BUT
MODELS DIFFER ON THIS. MAY SEE A QUIETER/DRIER PATTERN DEVELOP
FOR NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS HINTING AT RIDGING OVER THE GULF THAT
MIGHT KEEP SYSTEMS TO THE S AND W OF THE AREA.

STILL LOOKS LIKE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR LATE
WEEK ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS IN SOME AREAS. INITIALLY
ON THU...INCREASED WARM ADVECTION OVER LEFTOVER FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL AREA WILL KEEP PRECIP GOING OVER THE N-CENTRAL AREA AT
LEAST. THEN PRECIP BAND WITH MAIN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SPREAD NE
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT GALE FORCE
WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY
OVER THE N GULF. THE FAR SERN AREA THOUGH WILL BE PROTECTED BY A
STRONG RIDGE BUILDING INTO SRN BC...SO THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE
HELD UP MOSTLY TO THE NW OF THAT AREA INTO AT LEAST FRI MORNING.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD FALL OVER THE NRN PANHANDLE AND NE GULF
COAST THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI. STILL LOOKS LIKE 2-4 INCHES OR MORE
OF RAIN DURING THAT TIME FRAME. DID INCREASE WINDS SOME FOR THE
INNER CHANNELS WITH THE BIGGEST INCREASE OVER LYNN CANAL AS
MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE LEE TROF IN LOWER
LEVELS NEAR PAGY THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.

EVENTUALLY THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SRN PANHANDLE
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS FRONT DRIFTS SE INTO THAT AREA AND
POTENTIALLY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THEM. LOOKS
LIKE THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SAT
EVENING...BUT UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS AND KEEP SOME THREAT FOR
PRECIP GOING INTO SAT NIGHT AND SUN.

STILL LOOKING LIKE A MUCH NEEDED BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER AND/OR W OF THE
AREA. MODELS DIFFER ON SHAPE OF THE RIDGE AND WHETHER ANY SYSTEM
MIGHT BE ABLE TO SNEAK THROUGH IT INTO THE AREA FROM EITHER THE S
OR W. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ADJUST THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IF
NEEDED.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-043-051.
&&

$$

TPS/RWT

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU





000
FXAK67 PAJK 040017
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
417 PM AKDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF HAS ALLOWED FOR BREAKS OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES AT THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AND COOLING TEMPS AT 850MB
HAS INCREASED INSTABILITY OVER THE GULF. AS A RESULT SCATTERED
SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE AND RADAR APPROACHING THE
PANHANDLE. EXPECT THESE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT DUE TO PVA THEN
TOMORROW THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS A FRONTAL BAND
MOVE ACROSS THE NE GULF. YAKUTAT WILL GET THE BRUNT OF THESE
SHOWERS AS WELL AS W-SW FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS MOVE IN. THIS WILL CAUSE
LESS CHANCE OF FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT IF THERE ARE ANY LARGER BREAKS
BY MORNING THAT WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED. ALTHOUGH IT WOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED WITH AMOUNT OF DRYING TODAY. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
THE FAR SE PANHANDLE THAT DID GET RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...PATCHY FOG TOMORROW MORNING IS MORE LIKELY.

USED MAINLY THE GFS22 AND GEM-REGIONAL FOR UPDATES TODAY...THEN
ADJUSTED FOR LOCAL EFFECTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE...BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER ON AMOUNT OF SHOWERS (SCATTERED VS
NUMEROUS).

.LONG TERM...SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA.
THE FRONTAL BAND WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND THE
PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY AGREE
QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE A THREAT AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH RAPID RISES ON THE RIVERS AND
STREAMS IS LIKELY.

WIND WISE GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE GULF MARINE ZONES ALSO LIKELY
DUE TO THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN DIMINISHING SATURDAY.
LAND AREAS MAY SEE GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 IN EXPOSED AND OR FAVORED
AREAS.

LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS TRYING TO HINT THAT DRYING LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WILL BE TRYING TO OCCUR AND THAT THE TAIL END OF THE
MOTHERS DAY WEEKEND WOULD BE BETTER. COULD SEE A DAY OR SO DRY
WEATHER EARLY NEXT... OR EVEN MORE. WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PLAY OUT IN SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS. CONFIDENCE
IS ABOVE AVERAGE TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ051-052.
&&

$$

FERRIN/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU





000
FXAK67 PAJK 040017
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
417 PM AKDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF HAS ALLOWED FOR BREAKS OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES AT THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AND COOLING TEMPS AT 850MB
HAS INCREASED INSTABILITY OVER THE GULF. AS A RESULT SCATTERED
SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE AND RADAR APPROACHING THE
PANHANDLE. EXPECT THESE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT DUE TO PVA THEN
TOMORROW THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS A FRONTAL BAND
MOVE ACROSS THE NE GULF. YAKUTAT WILL GET THE BRUNT OF THESE
SHOWERS AS WELL AS W-SW FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS MOVE IN. THIS WILL CAUSE
LESS CHANCE OF FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT IF THERE ARE ANY LARGER BREAKS
BY MORNING THAT WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED. ALTHOUGH IT WOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED WITH AMOUNT OF DRYING TODAY. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
THE FAR SE PANHANDLE THAT DID GET RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...PATCHY FOG TOMORROW MORNING IS MORE LIKELY.

USED MAINLY THE GFS22 AND GEM-REGIONAL FOR UPDATES TODAY...THEN
ADJUSTED FOR LOCAL EFFECTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE...BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER ON AMOUNT OF SHOWERS (SCATTERED VS
NUMEROUS).

.LONG TERM...SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA.
THE FRONTAL BAND WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND THE
PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY AGREE
QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE A THREAT AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH RAPID RISES ON THE RIVERS AND
STREAMS IS LIKELY.

WIND WISE GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE GULF MARINE ZONES ALSO LIKELY
DUE TO THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN DIMINISHING SATURDAY.
LAND AREAS MAY SEE GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 IN EXPOSED AND OR FAVORED
AREAS.

LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS TRYING TO HINT THAT DRYING LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WILL BE TRYING TO OCCUR AND THAT THE TAIL END OF THE
MOTHERS DAY WEEKEND WOULD BE BETTER. COULD SEE A DAY OR SO DRY
WEATHER EARLY NEXT... OR EVEN MORE. WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PLAY OUT IN SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS. CONFIDENCE
IS ABOVE AVERAGE TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ051-052.
&&

$$

FERRIN/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU





000
FXAK67 PAJK 031346
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
546 AM AKDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...THE REMAINS OF A WEAKENING FRONT LIE STREWN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COAST MOUNTAINS. STEADY LIGHT RAIN HAS FALLEN ALL
NIGHT FROM WRANGELL/PETERSBURG SOUTH AND EASTWARD. AS COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ALOFT INFILTRATES THIS PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE, MORNING
STEADY RAINS WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE OVER OUR NORTHERN REACHES, SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVED EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO
DRY OUT ALOFT. THE DAY PROMISES A STEADY EROSION OF SKY COVER. IR
IMAGERY INDICATES JUST SUCH A TREND. FARTHER NORTHWEST, A BAND OF
SHOWERS PASSED NORTH OF YAKUTAT A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO. ANOTHER
WEAK TROUGH OFFSHORE MAY DRAW MORE CLOUDINESS INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE RISK OF ISOLATED SHOWERS INCREASING. LOOKING FORWARD TO
TONIGHT, THE FLOW ALOFT VEERS MORE SOUTHWEST. LAPSE RATES AND
HUMIDITIES INCREASE AND MOISTURE PROFILES DEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST.
THUS WE EXPECT THICKER CLOUDINESS AND EXPANDING COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS.

A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE AND THE EASTERN GULF PERSISTS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WITH ALL BUT A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF AFFECTING THE PATTERN. THEREFORE, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE TIGHTER GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS WHERE SKAGWAY AND HAINES MAY BLOW SOUTHERLY 10 TO 20 MPH,
MOST AREA WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH SOME MESOSCALE
AFFECTS ALLOWING FOR CHANNEL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. A 25-KT
BARRIER JET NEAR CAPE SUCKLING AND YAKATAGA WILL BE THE ONLY WIND
SMALL CRAFT TODAY, AND THIS WEAKENS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

MORE RAGGED SKY COVER ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES ALLOWED FOR SOME
LOCAL PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN SPOTS, NOTABLY HOONAH. BUT THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY TEMPORARY AND THUS NOT SO IMPACTFUL. GIVEN THE
CONVECTIVE ATMOSPHERE, THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE SOON. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE BETWEEN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BETWEEN 35 AND 40 DEGREES.

FEW CHANGES WERE REQUIRED FOR TODAY`S FORECAST. WE DID SLIDE RAIN
CHANCES TO CERTAINTY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST FOR THE MORNING
HOURS AND MODIFIED THE SKY COVERAGE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NASA
SPORT NIGHT MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY WITH SOME CONFIRMATION FROM THE
FAINT LIGHT OF EARLY MORNING WEBCAMS. WE USED NAM AND GFS FOR
MINOR UPDATES.

.LONG TERM...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
PANHANDLE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED RANGE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW WITH EMBEDDED WEAK IMPULSES MOVING FROM SW-NE
ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER AS A
RESULT OF RIDGING OFFSHORE AND A WEAK THERMAL LOW OVER THE YUKON.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE GULF ON THURSDAY WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT TRACKING ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE
PANHANDLE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 3-4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THEREFORE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL AS ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AND ITS
TRACK WOULD IMPACT THIS. THE DETAILS WILL BE FINE-TUNED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. GALE FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT OVER
THE EASTERN GULF AND A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS FOR THE INNER CHANNELS
AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER COULD RETURN TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA FOR THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK AS MODELS INDICATE A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN GULF. STAY TUNED...

MAINLY USED THE 00Z GFS FOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST. FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE ON SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ051.
&&

$$

JWA/TPS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU





000
FXAK67 PAJK 030059 CCA
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
359 PM AKDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...A BAND OF RAIN LINGERS OVER THE PANHANDLE EASTERN
PANHANDLE. THIS IS THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT AND LOOKS TO
REMAIN, NAMELY EAST OF CHATHAM STRAIT, THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
UNTIL THE MID- UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFTS TO THE EAST. WINDS ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE FRONT SHIFTED OUT OF THE WEST THIS MORNING AND
RAIN HAS TRANSITIONED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT THE REMAINING
RAIN TO TRANSITION TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THROUGH TOMORROW. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS
ALSO STARTED TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GULF TODAY. THIS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT OVER THE PANHANDLE AND HELP TO DIMINISH BOTH WINDS
AND SHOWERS.

EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE
FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH A WET GROUND AND DECREASING WINDS WILL
CAUSE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME PLACES MAY BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD DEPENDING IF THERE ARE FEWER CLOUDS AND MORE
RADIATIONAL COOLING. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING MANY
PLACES ACROSS SE WILL HAVE SUNNY BREAKS. CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS
WILL LINGER OVER THE KETCHIKAN/WRANGELL/HYDER AREAS THE LONGEST.

USED MAINLY THE GFS22 FOR UPDATES TODAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE...HOWEVER BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WAS DETERMINING
EXTENT OF ISOLATED VS SCATTERED SHOWERS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...TUE NIGHT THROUGH MON...PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SE AK
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH A MINOR SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF. THIS WAVE WILL BRING A ROUND OF PRECIP TO
THE N GULF COAST WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH MINOR IMPULSES TRACKING
SW-NE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THU. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WHERE A PRES GRADIENT
WILL BE TIGHTER AS A RESULT OF RIDGING OFFSHORE AND A WEAK THERMAL
LOW OVER THE YUKON. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GULF THU PUSHING A FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION FRI. NAEFS CONTINUE TO SHOW 3-4 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FRI WITH GEFS PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP
GREATER THAN AN INCH IN 24 HRS OVER 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST PRECIP...BUT THE CENTRAL
TO SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE HEAVIER RAINS.
PRECIP WILL DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE AND ENSEMBLE SPREADS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. USED GEM/GFS TO
INCREASE WINDS OVER THE GULF THROUGH THU AND INCREASED POPS/QPF
FRI...OTHERWISE MAINTAIN INHERITED FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK
UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&


.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-041>043.
&&

$$

FERRIN/BC

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU





000
FXAK67 PAJK 022359
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
359 PM AKDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...A BAND OF RAIN LINGERS OVER THE PANHANDLE EASTERN
PANHANDLE. THIS IS THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT AND LOOKS TO
REMAIN, NAMELY EAST OF CHATHAM STRAIT, THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
UNTIL THE MID- UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFTS TO THE EAST. WINDS ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE FRONT SHIFTED OUT OF THE WEST THIS MORNING AND
RAIN HAS TRANSITIONED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT THE REMAINING
RAIN TO TRANSITION TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THROUGH TOMORROW. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS
ALSO STARTED TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GULF TODAY. THIS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT OVER THE PANHANDLE AND HELP TO DIMINISH BOTH WINDS
AND SHOWERS.

EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE
FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH A WET GROUND AND DECREASING WINDS WILL
CAUSE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME PLACES MAY BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD DEPENDING IF THERE ARE FEWER CLOUDS AND MORE
RADIATIONAL COOLING. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING MANY
PLACES ACROSS SE WILL HAVE SUNNY BREAKS. CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS
WILL LINGER OVER THE KETCHIKAN/WRANGELL/HYDER AREAS THE LONGEST.

USED MAINLY THE GFS22 FOR UPDATES TODAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE...HOWEVER BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WAS DETERMINING
EXTENT OF ISOLATED VS SCATTERED SHOWERS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...TUE NIGHT THROUGH MON...PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SE AK
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH A MINOR SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF. THIS WAVE WILL BRING A ROUND OF PRECIP TO
THE N GULF COAST WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH MINOR IMPULSES TRACKING
SW-NE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THU. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WHERE A PRES GRADIENT
WILL BE TIGHTER AS A RESULT OF RIDGING OFFSHORE AND A WEAK THERMAL
LOW OVER THE YUKON. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GULF THU PUSHING A FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION FRI. NAEFS CONTINUE TO SHOW 3-4 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FRI WITH GEFS PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP
GREATER THAN AN INCH IN 24 HRS OVER 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LOCATION OF HEAVIESTPRECIP...BUT
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE
HEAVIER RAINS. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AND ENSEMBLE SPREADS INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY. USED GEM/GFS TO INCREASE WINDS OVER THE GULF
THROUGH THU AND INCREASED POPS/QPF FRI...OTHERWISE MAINTAIN
INHERITED FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK UNTIL MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&


.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-041>043.
&&

$$

FERRIN/BC

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU





000
FXAK67 PAJK 022359
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
359 PM AKDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...A BAND OF RAIN LINGERS OVER THE PANHANDLE EASTERN
PANHANDLE. THIS IS THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT AND LOOKS TO
REMAIN, NAMELY EAST OF CHATHAM STRAIT, THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
UNTIL THE MID- UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFTS TO THE EAST. WINDS ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE FRONT SHIFTED OUT OF THE WEST THIS MORNING AND
RAIN HAS TRANSITIONED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT THE REMAINING
RAIN TO TRANSITION TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THROUGH TOMORROW. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS
ALSO STARTED TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GULF TODAY. THIS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT OVER THE PANHANDLE AND HELP TO DIMINISH BOTH WINDS
AND SHOWERS.

EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE
FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH A WET GROUND AND DECREASING WINDS WILL
CAUSE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME PLACES MAY BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD DEPENDING IF THERE ARE FEWER CLOUDS AND MORE
RADIATIONAL COOLING. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING MANY
PLACES ACROSS SE WILL HAVE SUNNY BREAKS. CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS
WILL LINGER OVER THE KETCHIKAN/WRANGELL/HYDER AREAS THE LONGEST.

USED MAINLY THE GFS22 FOR UPDATES TODAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE...HOWEVER BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WAS DETERMINING
EXTENT OF ISOLATED VS SCATTERED SHOWERS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...TUE NIGHT THROUGH MON...PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SE AK
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH A MINOR SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF. THIS WAVE WILL BRING A ROUND OF PRECIP TO
THE N GULF COAST WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH MINOR IMPULSES TRACKING
SW-NE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THU. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WHERE A PRES GRADIENT
WILL BE TIGHTER AS A RESULT OF RIDGING OFFSHORE AND A WEAK THERMAL
LOW OVER THE YUKON. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GULF THU PUSHING A FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION FRI. NAEFS CONTINUE TO SHOW 3-4 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FRI WITH GEFS PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP
GREATER THAN AN INCH IN 24 HRS OVER 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LOCATION OF HEAVIESTPRECIP...BUT
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE
HEAVIER RAINS. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AND ENSEMBLE SPREADS INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY. USED GEM/GFS TO INCREASE WINDS OVER THE GULF
THROUGH THU AND INCREASED POPS/QPF FRI...OTHERWISE MAINTAIN
INHERITED FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK UNTIL MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&


.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-041>043.
&&

$$

FERRIN/BC

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