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000
FXAK67 PAJK 181441
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
541 AM AKST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...STRONG WEATHER FRONT MOVING NORTH WILL SPREAD STORM
FORCE WINDS THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF WATERS AND
HIGH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 60 MPH FOR WESTERN PRINCE OF WALES
ISLAND. LOWER PRESSURES REPORTED BY BUOYS TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT
SUGGEST A STRONGER SYSTEM THAN WHAT MODELS HAVE INDICATED. THUS
PREFERRED THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. WHILE
THE NAM WAS EVEN SLOWER, IT WAS ALSO MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TRIPLE
POINT LOW/WAVE, AND THUS WAS DISCOUNTED EARLY.

A MUCH WEAKER FRONT BROUGHT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN TO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT, AND ITS APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTH HELPED FLIP WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
PARALLEL FLOW ACROSS THE JUNEAU AREA, LIGHT WINDS, AND A NIGHTTIME
INVERSION, FOG BECAME DENSE YESTERDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, SOME MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD WILL HELP CONTINUE
TO THIN OUT THE FOG THROUGH THE MORNING.

GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE,
BOTH PRE-FRONTAL IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND RESPONSIVE OUTFLOW
WINDS IN THE NORTH. WE STILL EXPECT GALES OVER NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL AND CROSS SOUND LATER THIS MORNING. SOME OUTFLOW WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU, BUT NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON IT.
HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 HAS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD
THIS MORNING THAT MAY UNLEASH SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION HIGH RES NMM AND ARW BOTH CALLING FOR SOME
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS IN VICINITY OF SALISBURY RIDGE PEAKING THIS
AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. COVERED THIS WITH GUSTS OF
35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

MOVING DOWN SOUTH...A LOW LEVEL 925 MB JET OF 65 KT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSING STORM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE STORM FORCE
WINDS THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM 41 THIS MORNING INTO 42, 43,
AND 310 THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE WINDS WILL BE STRONG WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 MPH FOR THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND BARANOF ISLAND,
WESTERN PRINCE OF WALES WILL BE MOST EXPOSED TO THESE FRONTAL
WINDS. AT THIS POINT, WINDS SHOULD RISE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, PEAKING TO AROUND 60 MPH AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A THIRD TRIPLE
POINT FORMING SOUTH OF THE STORM FORCE LOW THAT WILL FOLLOW
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE NAM SEEMS TO TAKE IT MUCH FARTHER
WEST...AKA AROUND DIXON ENTRANCE WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS SWING IT
MUCH FARTHER EAST INTO HECATE STRAIT SAFELY AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. IF NAM IS CREDIBLE, THEN WINDS MAY LAST LATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR ZONE 27, AND THUS THE WARNING EXPIRATION TIME
OF 6 PM IS GOOD GIVEN SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY. IN THE SYSTEM`S LEE,
THERE WILL BE HARDLY A BREAK AS A NEW FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT KEEPING GALES BLOWING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OUTSIDE WATERS.

RAIN WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STORM
FORCE FRONT. GIVEN OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE NORTH, REDUCED THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW FOR JUNEAU AND POINTS NORTH. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, WINDS WILL TURN A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW FOR MORE
MOISTURE TO EXTEND NORTHWARD. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO AN INCH
OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR GUSTAVUS, HOONAH, AND JUNEAU TONIGHT. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT, AND IN SOME LOCATIONS THIS MAY BE OVERKILL. IN ANY
EVENT, RAIN WILL INTENSIFY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS WERE PREFERRED MODELS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOOD.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOC WITH THE THURS SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN BY FRIDAY MORNING AS IT RETROGRADES TO THE WESTERN GULF.
DESPITE THIS FLOW WILL REMAIN ONSHORE AND DIFFLUENT ALOFT...MEANING
STAYING WET FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

OUR WEATHER WILL BE DICTATED BY WAVES OF VORTICITY AND TROUGHS
ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF UNDER THIS ACTIVE
ONSHORE PATTERN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE SE GULF FRIDAY MORNING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS. THE TROUGH
AXIS HAS SHARPENED IN THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT WHICH MEANS THAT
WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE OFFSHORE WITH NORTH
WINDS THROUGH THE INSIDE WATERS AND OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. THE
NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER FOR SNOW...HOWEVER THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE DOWNSLOPING/SHADOWING AND LIMIT POP/QPF.
DESPITE THIS HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR FRIDAY OVER THE NORTH
BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN 1 INCH DURING THE DAY.
THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE RAIN AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 40S. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY POPS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER
AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE 1-2" EVERY 12HRS FOR
HAINES/SKAGWAY/JUNEAU VALLEY NORTH/HYDER. HOWEVER THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL CONTINUALLY BRING IN WARM/MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF
WHICH WILL COMPLICATE THE P-TYPE FORECAST. GENERALLY EXPECTING ALL
RAIN SOUTH OF HOONAH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HYDER. HAVE A LOT OF
RAIN AND SNOW MIXED IN THE FORECAST TEXT FOR THE NORTH/CENTRAL
AREAS. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO THE ZONES HAVING COLDER INTERIOR
AREAS AT SLIGHTLY HIGHER ELEVATION WHERE SNOW IS MORE LIKELY TO
OCCUR. OTHERWISE THINK THAT THE PRECIP IS MORE LIKELY TO BE RAIN
WITH SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES AND WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IN
THE MAIN POPULATIONS AREAS.

TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO
CHANGE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF. THIS WOULD
SHIFT FLOW TO A MORE DRY NWLY DIRECTION. HARD TO CALL THIS A PATTERN
CHANGE SINCE THE RIDGE LOOKS BE PROGRESSIVE MOVING TO THE EAST
MAKING OUR "DRY" PERIOD SHORT-LIVED. TIMING OF THIS WILL LIKELY BE
ADJUSTED SOME AS TIME GETS CLOSER.

USED AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH FOR PRESSURE WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE
ECMWF. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE INSIDE
WATERS WITH THE FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE SHORT/MID RANGE. THEN KEPT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LARGELY IN TACT.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ023-028.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041>043.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-022-033-036-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-031-032-034-035.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

$$

JWA/FERRIN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU










000
FXAK67 PAJK 181441
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
541 AM AKST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...STRONG WEATHER FRONT MOVING NORTH WILL SPREAD STORM
FORCE WINDS THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF WATERS AND
HIGH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 60 MPH FOR WESTERN PRINCE OF WALES
ISLAND. LOWER PRESSURES REPORTED BY BUOYS TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT
SUGGEST A STRONGER SYSTEM THAN WHAT MODELS HAVE INDICATED. THUS
PREFERRED THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. WHILE
THE NAM WAS EVEN SLOWER, IT WAS ALSO MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TRIPLE
POINT LOW/WAVE, AND THUS WAS DISCOUNTED EARLY.

A MUCH WEAKER FRONT BROUGHT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN TO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT, AND ITS APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTH HELPED FLIP WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
PARALLEL FLOW ACROSS THE JUNEAU AREA, LIGHT WINDS, AND A NIGHTTIME
INVERSION, FOG BECAME DENSE YESTERDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, SOME MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD WILL HELP CONTINUE
TO THIN OUT THE FOG THROUGH THE MORNING.

GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE,
BOTH PRE-FRONTAL IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND RESPONSIVE OUTFLOW
WINDS IN THE NORTH. WE STILL EXPECT GALES OVER NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL AND CROSS SOUND LATER THIS MORNING. SOME OUTFLOW WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU, BUT NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON IT.
HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 HAS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD
THIS MORNING THAT MAY UNLEASH SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION HIGH RES NMM AND ARW BOTH CALLING FOR SOME
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS IN VICINITY OF SALISBURY RIDGE PEAKING THIS
AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. COVERED THIS WITH GUSTS OF
35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

MOVING DOWN SOUTH...A LOW LEVEL 925 MB JET OF 65 KT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSING STORM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE STORM FORCE
WINDS THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM 41 THIS MORNING INTO 42, 43,
AND 310 THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE WINDS WILL BE STRONG WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 MPH FOR THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND BARANOF ISLAND,
WESTERN PRINCE OF WALES WILL BE MOST EXPOSED TO THESE FRONTAL
WINDS. AT THIS POINT, WINDS SHOULD RISE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, PEAKING TO AROUND 60 MPH AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A THIRD TRIPLE
POINT FORMING SOUTH OF THE STORM FORCE LOW THAT WILL FOLLOW
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE NAM SEEMS TO TAKE IT MUCH FARTHER
WEST...AKA AROUND DIXON ENTRANCE WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS SWING IT
MUCH FARTHER EAST INTO HECATE STRAIT SAFELY AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. IF NAM IS CREDIBLE, THEN WINDS MAY LAST LATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR ZONE 27, AND THUS THE WARNING EXPIRATION TIME
OF 6 PM IS GOOD GIVEN SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY. IN THE SYSTEM`S LEE,
THERE WILL BE HARDLY A BREAK AS A NEW FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT KEEPING GALES BLOWING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OUTSIDE WATERS.

RAIN WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STORM
FORCE FRONT. GIVEN OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE NORTH, REDUCED THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW FOR JUNEAU AND POINTS NORTH. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, WINDS WILL TURN A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW FOR MORE
MOISTURE TO EXTEND NORTHWARD. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO AN INCH
OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR GUSTAVUS, HOONAH, AND JUNEAU TONIGHT. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT, AND IN SOME LOCATIONS THIS MAY BE OVERKILL. IN ANY
EVENT, RAIN WILL INTENSIFY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS WERE PREFERRED MODELS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOOD.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOC WITH THE THURS SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN BY FRIDAY MORNING AS IT RETROGRADES TO THE WESTERN GULF.
DESPITE THIS FLOW WILL REMAIN ONSHORE AND DIFFLUENT ALOFT...MEANING
STAYING WET FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

OUR WEATHER WILL BE DICTATED BY WAVES OF VORTICITY AND TROUGHS
ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF UNDER THIS ACTIVE
ONSHORE PATTERN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE SE GULF FRIDAY MORNING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS. THE TROUGH
AXIS HAS SHARPENED IN THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT WHICH MEANS THAT
WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE OFFSHORE WITH NORTH
WINDS THROUGH THE INSIDE WATERS AND OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. THE
NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER FOR SNOW...HOWEVER THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE DOWNSLOPING/SHADOWING AND LIMIT POP/QPF.
DESPITE THIS HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR FRIDAY OVER THE NORTH
BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN 1 INCH DURING THE DAY.
THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE RAIN AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 40S. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY POPS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER
AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE 1-2" EVERY 12HRS FOR
HAINES/SKAGWAY/JUNEAU VALLEY NORTH/HYDER. HOWEVER THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL CONTINUALLY BRING IN WARM/MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF
WHICH WILL COMPLICATE THE P-TYPE FORECAST. GENERALLY EXPECTING ALL
RAIN SOUTH OF HOONAH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HYDER. HAVE A LOT OF
RAIN AND SNOW MIXED IN THE FORECAST TEXT FOR THE NORTH/CENTRAL
AREAS. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO THE ZONES HAVING COLDER INTERIOR
AREAS AT SLIGHTLY HIGHER ELEVATION WHERE SNOW IS MORE LIKELY TO
OCCUR. OTHERWISE THINK THAT THE PRECIP IS MORE LIKELY TO BE RAIN
WITH SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES AND WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IN
THE MAIN POPULATIONS AREAS.

TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO
CHANGE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF. THIS WOULD
SHIFT FLOW TO A MORE DRY NWLY DIRECTION. HARD TO CALL THIS A PATTERN
CHANGE SINCE THE RIDGE LOOKS BE PROGRESSIVE MOVING TO THE EAST
MAKING OUR "DRY" PERIOD SHORT-LIVED. TIMING OF THIS WILL LIKELY BE
ADJUSTED SOME AS TIME GETS CLOSER.

USED AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH FOR PRESSURE WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE
ECMWF. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE INSIDE
WATERS WITH THE FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE SHORT/MID RANGE. THEN KEPT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LARGELY IN TACT.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ023-028.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041>043.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-022-033-036-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-031-032-034-035.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

$$

JWA/FERRIN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 180132
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
432 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...QUIET DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEING THE RULE OF THE DAY. ONLY MAJOR FEATURE
SHOWING UP RIGHT NOW IS A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND
OVER THE SE GULF. MOST OF THE PRECIP AND WIND IS STILL OFFSHORE
ACCORDING TO RADAR BUT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN OUTER
COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHEST WINDS WITH IT ARE
AROUND 25 KT AT DIXON ENTRANCE WEST BUOY AT THIS TIME. ELSEWHERE,
RATHER NICE DAY WITH WINDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 20 KT.

INTO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, THE WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE
SOUTHERN OUTER COAST THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED BY THE
STORM FORCE FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE GULF. THAT STORM FORCE
FRONT IS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST MOSTLY FOR THE GULF
TONIGHT AND FOR THE REST OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW. FOR THE GULF,
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE INCREASING TO MIN GALE BY LATE TONIGHT.
THEY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO TOMORROW UP TO STORM FORCE FOR
THE EASTERN GULF AS THE MAIN FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST AND A BIT
OF BARRIER JET INFLUENCES START TO SHOW UP. FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THINGS WILL GET REALLY WINDY ON THU AS 850 MB WINDS RAMP
UP TO 60 TO 65 KT. ZONE 27 LOOKS LIKE IT IS IN LINE FOR ANOTHER
HIGH WIND WARNING (GUSTS TO 60 MPH) FOR THU AS A RESULT WHILE
ZONES 23 AND 28 SHOULD JUST SEE HIGH STRONG WIND CRITERIA (GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH) AS THE FRONT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES EAST.
FARTHER NORTH, NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL
BE INCREASING RESULTING IN HIGHER NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. LYNN CANAL IN PARTICULAR MAY REACH GALE FORCE THU
AFTERNOON AS JUNEAU TO SKAGWAY GRADIENT REACHES NEARLY 4 MB. THE
OTHER AREA TO WATCH IS DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AS THERE IS 30
TO 40 KT CROSS BARRIER FLOW FORECAST TO START UP ON THU. THE
PROBLEM IS THERE IS A CRITICAL LEVEL AT AROUND 600 MB BUT IT IS
NOT THAT WELL DEFINED BY A WIND SHIFT. THERE IS ALSO LITTLE IF ANY
COLD AIR AROUND TO FORM A SOLID INVERSION ABOVE RIDGE TOP. SO I AM
GOING FOR SOME 15 TO 25 KT WINDS THU IN DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND
DOUGLAS WITH GUSTS REMAINING BELOW STRONG WIND CRITERIA.

COMPLICATING THINGS IS THE TRIPLE POINT LOW THAT FORMS ALONG THE
FRONT SW OF HAIDA GWAII LATE TONIGHT THAT WILL FOCUS THE WINDS
ALONG THE COAST. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE GOING BACK AND FORTH ON
THAT FEATURE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL BE A CLOSED LOW OR JUST
A OPEN WAVE AND HOW FAR ALONG THE FRONT IT WILL BE SITUATED. NAM
IS JUST A BIT FURTHER EAST THEN THE REST WHILE GFS WAS THE
FARTHEST WEST. ECMWF WAS IN THE MIDDLE ON ITS 0Z RUN BUT THE NEW
12Z RUN HAS ALMOST GOTTEN RID OF THE FEATURE COMPLETELY. IN THE
END LEANED TOWARD THE 0Z EC FOR PRESSURE AND GFS FOR WIND SPEED
GUIDANCE. THIS KEPT A SLIGHTLY WEAKER VERSION OF THE LOW IN PLACE
THAT EVENTUALLY WEAKENS TO AN OPEN WAVE IN THE CENTRAL GULF BY THU
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR PRECIP, NORTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DIP BELOW FREEZING
TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A HIGHER
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. HOWEVER, DURING THE LOWEST TEMPS, THE POPS AND QPF WILL
BE AT THEIR LOWEST AS WELL. WHEN THE HEAVIER PRECIP STARTS UP THU
AFTERNOON THE PRECIP MAY START OUT AS SNOW BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS WELL AS A LITTLE AFTERNOON WARMING
WILL CAUSE THINGS TO QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SO LITTLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HAINES, SKAGWAY, AND HYDER HAVE THE BEST
CONDITIONS FOR SNOW BUT THE PRECIP DOES NOT QUITE REACH THEM BY
THU EVENING FOR THERE TO BE ANY LARGE ACCUMULATIONS AT THOSE
LOCATIONS. REST OF THE PANHANDLE HAS WARM ENOUGH TEMPS FOR RAIN
AND THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE FRONT WILL ENSURE THAT IT
STAYS RAIN. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON WITH AROUND A HALF AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. REMAINING MILD AND WET, THEN POTENTIALLY A WEATHER
PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK.

 WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE OUTER COAST AND THE
COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. FOR FIRST PART OF THURSDAY
NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE WIND AFTER THE WIND EVENT ON
THURSDAY DAYTIME. THE BREAK, HOWEVER WILL BE BRIEF. ANOTHER
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, AND
WINDS ON THE OUTSIDE WATERS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LEVEL
EARLY FRIDAY. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK LATER FRIDAY, BEFORE WINDS
INCREASE FURTHER ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT, A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA, DO EXPECT WINDS ON THE OUTSIDE TO PICK UP TO AT LEAST 45 KT.
THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES IN THE PATH AND INTENSITY OF THIS
STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
POWERFUL. WITH A JET STREAK OF UP TO 200 KT, THERE ARE A LOT OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. WITH THE
ORIENTATION OF THE JET STREAK FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AIMING
TOWARDS COAST OF BC, DO EXPECT AREAS OF FAVORED CYCLOGENESIS TO BE
OFF THE COAST OF HAIDA GWAII. THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED
IN THE WESTERN GULF, WITH IMPULSES OF DISTURBANCES SPINNING UP IN
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN THEN HEADING NORTH TOWARDS THE
PANHANDLE. MAIN THEME OF THIS PATTERN WILL BE EPISODES OF STRONG
WINDS, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
PROVIDING AMPLE MOISTURE TO THE REGION.

 PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLE. FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, INCLUDING SKAGWAY, HAINES,
AND LYNN CANAL, DO EXPECT SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THESE LOCATIONS. FOR
JUNEAU AREA, THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR WET SNOW MIXING IN WITH
RAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS
THAN 1 INCH. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE VERY TRICKY TO FORECAST,
AS TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE THE PATH OF INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES
SPINNING AROUND THE MAIN LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA.
MODELS ARE ALSO STRUGGLING WITH RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ALSO A VERY TRICKY FORECAST ISSUE. USES AN
ENSEMBLE OF ECMWF/GEM/GFS/NAM TO UPDATE THE FORECAST PACKAGE
THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN TRANSITION INTO WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 3 AM AKST THURSDAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ023-028.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041-042.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-022-033-036-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-031-032-034-035.

&&

$$

EAL/RCL

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 171449
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
549 AM AKST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...MINOR UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE SERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THEY APPROACH THE SRN COAST OF THE PANHANDLE. COLD
CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CORRESPOND
TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN DISSIPATE AS THE WAVE EXITS
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRONG DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE THAT WILL
BECOME POSITIONED JUST S OF THE GULF BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD /12-15Z THU/. AN OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY WRAPPED AROUND ITS
PARENT LOW...WITH IT/S ESEWD BRANCH APPROACHING THE SERN GULF THU
MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT N OF THE FRONT...AND ESELY 925
MB WINDS EXCEEDING 50 KT...WILL FAVOR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS BY LATE WED NIGHT. HIGH END SMALL CRAFT GAP WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN CROSS SOUND BY THIS POINT AS WELL...AND
30 KT SELY WINDS IN CLARENCE STRAIT ALSO APPEAR PROBABLE. THE
STRONGER 925 MB WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO CLIP LAND ZONE 27 BY
12Z THU...AND MAY SUPPORT GUSTS APPROACHING STRONG WIND CRITERIA.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE PANHANDLE DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE OFFSHORE CYCLONE. THIS WILL YIELD WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVER
THE REGION...THOUGH MODEST 850 MB WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT MAY SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION DURING WED
NIGHT...HIGHEST POP/S LOCATED OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE CLOSEST TO
THE FRONT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE YAKUTAT AREA LATE
TONIGHT...WHERE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL PRODUCE AN
ENVIRONMENT TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION. OFFSHORE/NLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT LOCATED FROM JUNEAU/GUSTAVUS N TO SKAGWAY IS FORECAST TO
BRING A COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS SWD INTO THE NRN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL FAVOR TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO FREEZING...AND
THUS INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER...ASCENT WILL BE
VERY WEAK...AND THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY MOIST.
THUS...LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...STORM FORCE FRONT POISED TO MOVE MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF LIFTING NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THUS
WE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND FOR GUSTS TO
AROUND 60 MPH. GIVEN 65 MPH JET AT 925 MB, THIS WAS NOT A TOUGH
CALL. STRONG WINDS UP TO 50 MPH SHOULD ALSO SPREAD INTO THE
SOUTHERN INSIDE CHANNELS THURSDAY MORNING AND BY MID-DAY FOR
SOUTHEASTERN BARANOF ISLAND. METLAKATLA AND ANNETTE ISLAND WILL
PROBABLY SEE MORE WIND THAN KETCHIKAN WITH THE FRONTAL ORIENTATION
AND TRACK WITHIN ZONE 28. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH GALE FORCE OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL AFFLICT CROSS SOUND AND NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WITH SOLID
SMALL CRAFTS IN MANY CHANNELS ELSEWHERE. WHILE THE GRADIENT WOULD
SUPPORT OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH DOWNTOWN JUNEAU, THE SETUP IS
MARGINAL WITH ONLY A MINOR WEAK DIRECTIONAL SHIFT AT THE CRITICAL
LEVEL. BUT GIVEN NEW HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME SURFACE
WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF SALISBURY RIDGE WE ALLOWED 15 TO 25 MPH
FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU.

THERE IS AN INTERESTING ROLE REVERSAL LOOKING AT THE TWO MOST
USEFUL SOLUTIONS FOR MODELING THIS FRONT. THE NAM, OFTEN USING THE
OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SUCH A FRONT, IS GENERALLY
DRIER IN CASES SUCH AS THIS ONE. WHILE THE ECMWF OFTEN SPREADS THE
PRECIPITATION A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY, NOT ALLOWING THE TIME FOR THE
COLUMN TO THE NORTH TO MOISTEN ENOUGH FOR VIRGA TO REACH THE
SURFACE. THE NAM AND THE HIGH RES WERE STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF
REGARDING THE ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION INTO JUNEAU. GIVEN OFFSHORE
GRADIENT AT THE MID-LEVELS THAT WOULD NATURALLY BE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF A FRONT, THERE SHOULD BE A LEVEL OF ATMOSPHERIC COOLING AS
THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AND EVAPORATES THROUGH THE AIR. SO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX LIKELY FOR MUCH OF JUNEAU AT LEAST BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WE DID EXTEND THE SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
ZONE. AS GRADIENTS AND 925 MB WINDS DO NOT LOOK AS FULL-PROOF ON
THE SOUTHERLIES TURNING THINGS TO ALL RAIN AS QUICKLY AS GUIDANCE
WAS SUGGESTING YESTERDAY. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE FALLING ON WHEN
EXACTLY A COMPLETE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN WILL OCCUR. IT WOULD BE AN
EASIER CALL IF ONLY A LOW LEVEL JET WOULD CLEARLY MANIFEST ITSELF,
BUT MODELS AT BEST ONLY TEASING WITH A SLIGHT SUGGESTION.
NEVERTHELESS WE DID PULL BACK ON POPS JUST A TAD AS THE FRONT
PULLS WESTWARD AND SOME WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT IS LOOKING A BIT MORE LIKELY FOR SATURDAY. SNOW MAY
NEED TO BE MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN AS LATE AS FRIDAY MORNING FOR
JUNEAU. STAY TUNED. LIKEWISE GUSTAVUS WILL BE A TRICKY CALL AT
TIMES FOR RAIN/SNOW LINE.

YET TWO MORE WAVES LOOK LIKELIER TO GRAZE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND THUS KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST--WITH
SNOW LIKELY AROUND LYNN CANAL. LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS SEEM TO BE LOWERING TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA.
LOOKING FOR SUCCESSIVE SIGNALS ON THIS BEFORE WE BEGIN NUDGING IN
THAT DIRECTION.

USED NAM AND ECWMF FOR GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. FEW
CHANGES BEYOND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOOD FOR WINDS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODEL SPREAD LOWERING CONFIDENCE FOR
NEXT TWO SYSTEMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE FALLING FOR
RAIN/SNOW LINE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031>036.

&&

$$

GARNER/JWA

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU













000
FXAK67 PAJK 171449
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
549 AM AKST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...MINOR UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE SERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THEY APPROACH THE SRN COAST OF THE PANHANDLE. COLD
CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CORRESPOND
TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN DISSIPATE AS THE WAVE EXITS
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRONG DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE THAT WILL
BECOME POSITIONED JUST S OF THE GULF BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD /12-15Z THU/. AN OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY WRAPPED AROUND ITS
PARENT LOW...WITH IT/S ESEWD BRANCH APPROACHING THE SERN GULF THU
MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT N OF THE FRONT...AND ESELY 925
MB WINDS EXCEEDING 50 KT...WILL FAVOR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS BY LATE WED NIGHT. HIGH END SMALL CRAFT GAP WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN CROSS SOUND BY THIS POINT AS WELL...AND
30 KT SELY WINDS IN CLARENCE STRAIT ALSO APPEAR PROBABLE. THE
STRONGER 925 MB WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO CLIP LAND ZONE 27 BY
12Z THU...AND MAY SUPPORT GUSTS APPROACHING STRONG WIND CRITERIA.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE PANHANDLE DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE OFFSHORE CYCLONE. THIS WILL YIELD WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVER
THE REGION...THOUGH MODEST 850 MB WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT MAY SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION DURING WED
NIGHT...HIGHEST POP/S LOCATED OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE CLOSEST TO
THE FRONT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE YAKUTAT AREA LATE
TONIGHT...WHERE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL PRODUCE AN
ENVIRONMENT TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION. OFFSHORE/NLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT LOCATED FROM JUNEAU/GUSTAVUS N TO SKAGWAY IS FORECAST TO
BRING A COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS SWD INTO THE NRN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL FAVOR TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO FREEZING...AND
THUS INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER...ASCENT WILL BE
VERY WEAK...AND THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY MOIST.
THUS...LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...STORM FORCE FRONT POISED TO MOVE MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF LIFTING NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THUS
WE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND FOR GUSTS TO
AROUND 60 MPH. GIVEN 65 MPH JET AT 925 MB, THIS WAS NOT A TOUGH
CALL. STRONG WINDS UP TO 50 MPH SHOULD ALSO SPREAD INTO THE
SOUTHERN INSIDE CHANNELS THURSDAY MORNING AND BY MID-DAY FOR
SOUTHEASTERN BARANOF ISLAND. METLAKATLA AND ANNETTE ISLAND WILL
PROBABLY SEE MORE WIND THAN KETCHIKAN WITH THE FRONTAL ORIENTATION
AND TRACK WITHIN ZONE 28. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH GALE FORCE OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL AFFLICT CROSS SOUND AND NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WITH SOLID
SMALL CRAFTS IN MANY CHANNELS ELSEWHERE. WHILE THE GRADIENT WOULD
SUPPORT OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH DOWNTOWN JUNEAU, THE SETUP IS
MARGINAL WITH ONLY A MINOR WEAK DIRECTIONAL SHIFT AT THE CRITICAL
LEVEL. BUT GIVEN NEW HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME SURFACE
WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF SALISBURY RIDGE WE ALLOWED 15 TO 25 MPH
FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU.

THERE IS AN INTERESTING ROLE REVERSAL LOOKING AT THE TWO MOST
USEFUL SOLUTIONS FOR MODELING THIS FRONT. THE NAM, OFTEN USING THE
OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SUCH A FRONT, IS GENERALLY
DRIER IN CASES SUCH AS THIS ONE. WHILE THE ECMWF OFTEN SPREADS THE
PRECIPITATION A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY, NOT ALLOWING THE TIME FOR THE
COLUMN TO THE NORTH TO MOISTEN ENOUGH FOR VIRGA TO REACH THE
SURFACE. THE NAM AND THE HIGH RES WERE STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF
REGARDING THE ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION INTO JUNEAU. GIVEN OFFSHORE
GRADIENT AT THE MID-LEVELS THAT WOULD NATURALLY BE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF A FRONT, THERE SHOULD BE A LEVEL OF ATMOSPHERIC COOLING AS
THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AND EVAPORATES THROUGH THE AIR. SO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX LIKELY FOR MUCH OF JUNEAU AT LEAST BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WE DID EXTEND THE SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
ZONE. AS GRADIENTS AND 925 MB WINDS DO NOT LOOK AS FULL-PROOF ON
THE SOUTHERLIES TURNING THINGS TO ALL RAIN AS QUICKLY AS GUIDANCE
WAS SUGGESTING YESTERDAY. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE FALLING ON WHEN
EXACTLY A COMPLETE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN WILL OCCUR. IT WOULD BE AN
EASIER CALL IF ONLY A LOW LEVEL JET WOULD CLEARLY MANIFEST ITSELF,
BUT MODELS AT BEST ONLY TEASING WITH A SLIGHT SUGGESTION.
NEVERTHELESS WE DID PULL BACK ON POPS JUST A TAD AS THE FRONT
PULLS WESTWARD AND SOME WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT IS LOOKING A BIT MORE LIKELY FOR SATURDAY. SNOW MAY
NEED TO BE MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN AS LATE AS FRIDAY MORNING FOR
JUNEAU. STAY TUNED. LIKEWISE GUSTAVUS WILL BE A TRICKY CALL AT
TIMES FOR RAIN/SNOW LINE.

YET TWO MORE WAVES LOOK LIKELIER TO GRAZE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND THUS KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST--WITH
SNOW LIKELY AROUND LYNN CANAL. LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS SEEM TO BE LOWERING TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA.
LOOKING FOR SUCCESSIVE SIGNALS ON THIS BEFORE WE BEGIN NUDGING IN
THAT DIRECTION.

USED NAM AND ECWMF FOR GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. FEW
CHANGES BEYOND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOOD FOR WINDS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODEL SPREAD LOWERING CONFIDENCE FOR
NEXT TWO SYSTEMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE FALLING FOR
RAIN/SNOW LINE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031>036.

&&

$$

GARNER/JWA

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU














000
FXAK67 PAJK 170054
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
354 PM AKST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...SHORT RANGE FORECAST IS RATHER QUIET AS WE
TRANSITION FROM THE REMAINS OF ONE FRONT AND PREPARE FOR THE
NEXT. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE CURRENT LOW HEADING NORTH
OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WITH A FRONT STILL DRAPED OVER THE REST
OF THE PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOW
40S OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE SO ALL PRECIP AT SEA LEVEL HAS BEEN
RAIN. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE THE HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS AND
HYDER. BOTH HIGHWAYS HAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS AND HYDER HAD HALF AN INCH. WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN A BIT
FRISKY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH THE CAPE SUCKLING BUOY REACHING
45 KT OVERNIGHT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS OF THE
PANHANDLE.

INTO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, WHAT REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MAKE ITS WAY INTO CANADA AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH, CURRENTLY JUST
WEST OF THE MAIN CLOUD BANDS, PUSHES INTO IT. AS A RESULT SKIES
WILL START TO SEE SOME BREAKS, SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND
SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL INVADE THE PANHANDLE FROM THE W AND
SW. THIS AIR MASS HAS BEEN HEAVILY MARINE MODIFIED SO THERE WILL
BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN. 850 MB TEMPS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL DIP INTO THE -4 TO -5 DEGREE C RANGE
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WITH MAYBE SOME -6 C 850 TEMPS OVER THE
EXTREME NORTH. THIS IS VERY MARGINAL FOR ANY SNOW ESPECIALLY WITH
THE ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE CURRENTLY. SO SHOWERS WILL MAINLY STAY RAIN THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. ONLY SKAGWAY, HAINES, HYDER, AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE HIGHWAYS MAY SEE SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ONLY A FEW
INCHES AT MOST THOUGHT WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AS SHOWERS DIMINISH. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON MORE FREQUENT RAIN PAYS
A VISIT TO THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST AS A WEAK LOW EASING INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF SPREADS A WEAK FRONTAL BAND OVER THAT AREA.

WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AS THE CURRENT
SYSTEM MOVES OUT. HIGHEST WINDS CURRENTLY ARE AT THE CAPE SUCKLING
BUOY WITH 30 KT S WINDS. AS FOR THE INNER CHANNELS CLARENCE STRAIT
HAS THE HIGHEST WITH SE WINDS AROUND 20 KT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX. MOST PLACES SHOULD BE BELOW
20 KT BY LATER TONIGHT. WINDS BEGIN TO COME UP AGAIN TOMORROW IN
THE GULF AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THAT WEAK LOW MOVES UP. EXPECT
MIN SMALL CRAFT WINDS IN THE EASTERN GULF AND CLARENCE STRAIT BY WED
AFTERNOON WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE FARTHER NORTH, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
FLIP NORTH ENOUGH DUE TO THE APPROACHING WEAK LOW THAT LYNN CANAL,
STEPHENS PASSAGE, AND NORTHERN CHATHAM WILL CHANGE TO A NORTHERLY
WIND AND START INCREASING IN INTENSITY WED AFTERNOON.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THOUGH THE GFS WAS A
BIT OFF ON INITIAL PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES. MEANWHILE THE
ECMWF, GEM, AND NAM WERE CLOSE POSITION WISE BUT VARIED A BIT ON
STRENGTH WITH THE NAM TRENDING TOWARD THE STRONG SIDE OF THE
EQUATION. DECIDED ON A BLEND OF ECMWF, GEM, AND SOME NAM FOR MAIN
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

 THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE A STRONG
LOW ENTERING THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
WEATHER FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA. POTENTIALLY, THERE MAY BE A SECONDARY LOW FORMING JUST OFF
DIXON ENTRANCE. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO GALE FORCE LEVEL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS ON THE COASTAL WATERS CAN POTENTIALLY REACH STORM
FORCE LEVEL BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL OVER THE PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
SHOULD SOUTHEAST WIND PICKING UP TO STRONG WIND LEVEL. OUTER COAST
OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND MAY SEE GUSTS TO 60 MPH. RIGHT NOW, HAVE
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TALKING ABOUT THE WIND POTENTIAL ON
THURSDAY.

 ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT WILL PUSH IN ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT ON SATURDAY. THUS, THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES.

 WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW, DO EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL SHOULD MOSTLY CONFINED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
KLONDIKE AND HAINES HIGHWAYS. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD ON THURSDAY
THAT COLDER LOCATIONS IN THE JUNEAU AREA WILL SEE SNOWFALL.
HOWEVER, SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE VERY MINOR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MODELS HAVE FAIRLY
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ON THURSDAY THERE WILL BE A LANDFALLING
FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE TRYING TO FIGURE
OUT WHETHER THIS WILL BE A STRONG WIND VS HIGH WIND EVENT FOR THE
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. BEYOND THURSDAY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DECREASES TO BELOW AVERAGE IN REGARD TO INDIVIDUAL WEATHER FRONTS.
USES ECMWF/GEM/NAM TO REFRESH THE FORECAST PACKAGE THROUGH FRIDAY,
THEN TRANSITION TO WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ035-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-053.

&&

$$

EAL/RCL

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 170054
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
354 PM AKST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...SHORT RANGE FORECAST IS RATHER QUIET AS WE
TRANSITION FROM THE REMAINS OF ONE FRONT AND PREPARE FOR THE
NEXT. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE CURRENT LOW HEADING NORTH
OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WITH A FRONT STILL DRAPED OVER THE REST
OF THE PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOW
40S OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE SO ALL PRECIP AT SEA LEVEL HAS BEEN
RAIN. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE THE HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS AND
HYDER. BOTH HIGHWAYS HAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS AND HYDER HAD HALF AN INCH. WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN A BIT
FRISKY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH THE CAPE SUCKLING BUOY REACHING
45 KT OVERNIGHT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS OF THE
PANHANDLE.

INTO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, WHAT REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MAKE ITS WAY INTO CANADA AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH, CURRENTLY JUST
WEST OF THE MAIN CLOUD BANDS, PUSHES INTO IT. AS A RESULT SKIES
WILL START TO SEE SOME BREAKS, SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND
SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL INVADE THE PANHANDLE FROM THE W AND
SW. THIS AIR MASS HAS BEEN HEAVILY MARINE MODIFIED SO THERE WILL
BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN. 850 MB TEMPS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL DIP INTO THE -4 TO -5 DEGREE C RANGE
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WITH MAYBE SOME -6 C 850 TEMPS OVER THE
EXTREME NORTH. THIS IS VERY MARGINAL FOR ANY SNOW ESPECIALLY WITH
THE ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE CURRENTLY. SO SHOWERS WILL MAINLY STAY RAIN THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. ONLY SKAGWAY, HAINES, HYDER, AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE HIGHWAYS MAY SEE SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ONLY A FEW
INCHES AT MOST THOUGHT WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AS SHOWERS DIMINISH. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON MORE FREQUENT RAIN PAYS
A VISIT TO THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST AS A WEAK LOW EASING INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF SPREADS A WEAK FRONTAL BAND OVER THAT AREA.

WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AS THE CURRENT
SYSTEM MOVES OUT. HIGHEST WINDS CURRENTLY ARE AT THE CAPE SUCKLING
BUOY WITH 30 KT S WINDS. AS FOR THE INNER CHANNELS CLARENCE STRAIT
HAS THE HIGHEST WITH SE WINDS AROUND 20 KT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX. MOST PLACES SHOULD BE BELOW
20 KT BY LATER TONIGHT. WINDS BEGIN TO COME UP AGAIN TOMORROW IN
THE GULF AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THAT WEAK LOW MOVES UP. EXPECT
MIN SMALL CRAFT WINDS IN THE EASTERN GULF AND CLARENCE STRAIT BY WED
AFTERNOON WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE FARTHER NORTH, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
FLIP NORTH ENOUGH DUE TO THE APPROACHING WEAK LOW THAT LYNN CANAL,
STEPHENS PASSAGE, AND NORTHERN CHATHAM WILL CHANGE TO A NORTHERLY
WIND AND START INCREASING IN INTENSITY WED AFTERNOON.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THOUGH THE GFS WAS A
BIT OFF ON INITIAL PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES. MEANWHILE THE
ECMWF, GEM, AND NAM WERE CLOSE POSITION WISE BUT VARIED A BIT ON
STRENGTH WITH THE NAM TRENDING TOWARD THE STRONG SIDE OF THE
EQUATION. DECIDED ON A BLEND OF ECMWF, GEM, AND SOME NAM FOR MAIN
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

 THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE A STRONG
LOW ENTERING THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
WEATHER FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA. POTENTIALLY, THERE MAY BE A SECONDARY LOW FORMING JUST OFF
DIXON ENTRANCE. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO GALE FORCE LEVEL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS ON THE COASTAL WATERS CAN POTENTIALLY REACH STORM
FORCE LEVEL BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL OVER THE PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
SHOULD SOUTHEAST WIND PICKING UP TO STRONG WIND LEVEL. OUTER COAST
OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND MAY SEE GUSTS TO 60 MPH. RIGHT NOW, HAVE
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TALKING ABOUT THE WIND POTENTIAL ON
THURSDAY.

 ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT WILL PUSH IN ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT ON SATURDAY. THUS, THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES.

 WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW, DO EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL SHOULD MOSTLY CONFINED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
KLONDIKE AND HAINES HIGHWAYS. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD ON THURSDAY
THAT COLDER LOCATIONS IN THE JUNEAU AREA WILL SEE SNOWFALL.
HOWEVER, SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE VERY MINOR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MODELS HAVE FAIRLY
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ON THURSDAY THERE WILL BE A LANDFALLING
FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE TRYING TO FIGURE
OUT WHETHER THIS WILL BE A STRONG WIND VS HIGH WIND EVENT FOR THE
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. BEYOND THURSDAY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DECREASES TO BELOW AVERAGE IN REGARD TO INDIVIDUAL WEATHER FRONTS.
USES ECMWF/GEM/NAM TO REFRESH THE FORECAST PACKAGE THROUGH FRIDAY,
THEN TRANSITION TO WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ035-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-053.

&&

$$

EAL/RCL

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 161437
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
537 AM AKST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...COMPACT UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE ARE
MOVING NNW ACROSS THE NRN GULF THIS MORNING. GALE STRENGTH WINDS
OCCURRING WITHIN THE NNE QUADRANT OF THE NRN GULF LOW /MARINE
ZONES 43...51...AND 52/ WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY THIS EVENING AS
THE LOW DISSIPATES INVOF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE ONLY MARINE
HAZARDS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
BE SMALL CRAFT SEAS NEAR 10 FT OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS.

MOIST SSELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE LOCATED E OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS
MOIST AIRSTREAM COMBINED WITH COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /AOB
-32C/ IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS OVER THE PANHANDLE...WITH A FEW
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES OBSERVED IMMEDIATELY OFFSHORE FROM THE
ERN/NERN GULF COAST. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...LIKELY FOCUSED INVOF THE COAST WHERE WEAK
CAPE VALUES AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE RELATIVELY
MAXIMIZED.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS ENTERING
THE SRN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. THIS MAY SIGNAL A PERIOD OF
HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...WEAK LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL SPREAD INTO THE
SRN/CNTRL PANHANDLE TONIGHT AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING OCCURS
DOWNSTREAM FROM A TROUGH OVER THE SRN GULF. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS
ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE MIDLEVEL AIRMASS
DRIES. IN ADDITION...THIS SUBSIDENT REGIME MAY FAVOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT FROM GUSTAVUS/JUNEAU SSE TO PETERSBURG
AND KETCHIKAN.

.LONG TERM...AS MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH DETAILS ON TIMING
OF SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE GULF, WE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
A VERY TOP DOWN FORECAST. A WEAK WAVE OR LOW, DEPENDING ON WHICH
MODEL TO FAVOR, MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL THIS EVENING WILL BEGIN TO
FALL APART RATHER QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A REGION OF
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE GULF AHEAD OF A
VIGOROUS SYSTEM SPEEDING EASTWARD SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
FAR FROM INHIBITING ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, THE RESULTING
SUBSIDENCE WILL EFFECTIVELY COMPLETE ITS DEMISE BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OF IMPORTANCE FOR SOUTHEAST, RESULTING OFFSHORE WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY, WHILE RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
LIKELY FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS WARMER MORE MOIST AIR
SPREADS NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME ALL EYES SHOULD FOCUS ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE BIGGER
NORTH PACIFIC SYSTEM INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE PANHANDLE. WITH SUCH A LARGE SYSTEM AND THE
GREATEST BAROCLINICITY MOVING WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, WE SHOULD
EXPECT SOME SORT OF DEVELOPMENT OF A TRIPLE POINT FEATURE
SOMEWHERE ON ITS EAST FLANK. ALL OF OUR GUIDING MODELS SHOW AT
LEAST HINTS OF THIS PRINCIPLE. BUT AGAIN ALL DIFFER ON STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT. NAM AND ECMWF SEEM TO AGREE THE MOST ON
PLACEMENT/TIMING, IF NOT QUITE AS MUCH ON STRENGTH. TO COUNTER
JUMPS IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY, WE NUDGED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A
BIT WITH THE LAST TWO EDITIONS OF BOTH TO PUSH WINDS TO STORM
FORCE IN AREAS ALONG AN ASSOCIATED FRONT. THIS INCLUDES MARINE
ZONE 41, WHICH TRIGGERS AT LEAST A CONSIDERATION FOR A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND FOR THURSDAY. HENCE WE WILL LOOK
FOR GUIDANCE TO CONVERGE ON THIS IDEA BEFORE ANY ISSUANCE.

MEANWHILE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN SPREADING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND WITH SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING OVER
THE NORTH, PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS MAY COOL THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN TO BEGIN AS SNOW FROM INTERIOR 26 AND NORTHWARD, INCLUDING
JUNEAU. HOWEVER, JUST AS MUCH, THE DRYING WILL ALSO INHIBIT
AMOUNTS ALL THE SAME. BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT, INCREASING
THICKNESSES SHOULD OVERWHELM THESE PROCESSES WITH WARMING, AND
EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE CHILLY HERE ON THE GROUND...THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TURN TO RAIN BY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE LYNN CANAL
AREA. THIS WARM CONVEYOR BELT SHOULD HELP SHIFT WINDS TO SOUTHERLY
AT LEAST BY FRIDAY FROM SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL SOUTHWARD. HAINES AND
SKAGWAY RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A DICEY CALL GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND.

AS THE CENTRAL GULF SYSTEM BEGINS TO WIND DOWN LATE THIS WEEK AS
IT STALLS AGAINST STRONGER RIDGING OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN
CONTINENT, FRESH LOWS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC BEGIN TO SUPPLANT ONE
ANOTHER AS THEY SLOW AND WEAKEN IN THE GULF. THUS THE EXTENDED
FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK WET, MILD, AND BREEZY AT TIMES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IMPROVING FOR MID-RANGE, BUT STILL ONLY
AVERAGE. PLACEMENT/TIMING STILL ISSUES FOR WIND. IN ADDITION, SHORT-
WAVE PATH AND TIMING WILL ALSO DICTATE ANY BREAKS FROM PRECIP. AS
SUCH THESE FORECAST ELEMENTS SUPPORT ONLY AVERAGE CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT AND THUS THEY HAVE LARGELY BEEN BROAD-BRUSHED FROM THIS
WEEKEND ONWARD.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-031-033-035-036-042-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041.

&&

$$

GARNER/ADKINS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU











000
FXAK67 PAJK 161437
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
537 AM AKST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...COMPACT UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE ARE
MOVING NNW ACROSS THE NRN GULF THIS MORNING. GALE STRENGTH WINDS
OCCURRING WITHIN THE NNE QUADRANT OF THE NRN GULF LOW /MARINE
ZONES 43...51...AND 52/ WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY THIS EVENING AS
THE LOW DISSIPATES INVOF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE ONLY MARINE
HAZARDS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
BE SMALL CRAFT SEAS NEAR 10 FT OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS.

MOIST SSELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE LOCATED E OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS
MOIST AIRSTREAM COMBINED WITH COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /AOB
-32C/ IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS OVER THE PANHANDLE...WITH A FEW
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES OBSERVED IMMEDIATELY OFFSHORE FROM THE
ERN/NERN GULF COAST. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...LIKELY FOCUSED INVOF THE COAST WHERE WEAK
CAPE VALUES AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE RELATIVELY
MAXIMIZED.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS ENTERING
THE SRN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. THIS MAY SIGNAL A PERIOD OF
HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...WEAK LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL SPREAD INTO THE
SRN/CNTRL PANHANDLE TONIGHT AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING OCCURS
DOWNSTREAM FROM A TROUGH OVER THE SRN GULF. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS
ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE MIDLEVEL AIRMASS
DRIES. IN ADDITION...THIS SUBSIDENT REGIME MAY FAVOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT FROM GUSTAVUS/JUNEAU SSE TO PETERSBURG
AND KETCHIKAN.

.LONG TERM...AS MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH DETAILS ON TIMING
OF SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE GULF, WE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
A VERY TOP DOWN FORECAST. A WEAK WAVE OR LOW, DEPENDING ON WHICH
MODEL TO FAVOR, MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL THIS EVENING WILL BEGIN TO
FALL APART RATHER QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A REGION OF
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE GULF AHEAD OF A
VIGOROUS SYSTEM SPEEDING EASTWARD SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
FAR FROM INHIBITING ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, THE RESULTING
SUBSIDENCE WILL EFFECTIVELY COMPLETE ITS DEMISE BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OF IMPORTANCE FOR SOUTHEAST, RESULTING OFFSHORE WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY, WHILE RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
LIKELY FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS WARMER MORE MOIST AIR
SPREADS NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE.

AT THIS TIME ALL EYES SHOULD FOCUS ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE BIGGER
NORTH PACIFIC SYSTEM INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE PANHANDLE. WITH SUCH A LARGE SYSTEM AND THE
GREATEST BAROCLINICITY MOVING WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, WE SHOULD
EXPECT SOME SORT OF DEVELOPMENT OF A TRIPLE POINT FEATURE
SOMEWHERE ON ITS EAST FLANK. ALL OF OUR GUIDING MODELS SHOW AT
LEAST HINTS OF THIS PRINCIPLE. BUT AGAIN ALL DIFFER ON STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT. NAM AND ECMWF SEEM TO AGREE THE MOST ON
PLACEMENT/TIMING, IF NOT QUITE AS MUCH ON STRENGTH. TO COUNTER
JUMPS IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY, WE NUDGED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A
BIT WITH THE LAST TWO EDITIONS OF BOTH TO PUSH WINDS TO STORM
FORCE IN AREAS ALONG AN ASSOCIATED FRONT. THIS INCLUDES MARINE
ZONE 41, WHICH TRIGGERS AT LEAST A CONSIDERATION FOR A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND FOR THURSDAY. HENCE WE WILL LOOK
FOR GUIDANCE TO CONVERGE ON THIS IDEA BEFORE ANY ISSUANCE.

MEANWHILE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN SPREADING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND WITH SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING OVER
THE NORTH, PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS MAY COOL THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN TO BEGIN AS SNOW FROM INTERIOR 26 AND NORTHWARD, INCLUDING
JUNEAU. HOWEVER, JUST AS MUCH, THE DRYING WILL ALSO INHIBIT
AMOUNTS ALL THE SAME. BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT, INCREASING
THICKNESSES SHOULD OVERWHELM THESE PROCESSES WITH WARMING, AND
EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE CHILLY HERE ON THE GROUND...THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TURN TO RAIN BY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE LYNN CANAL
AREA. THIS WARM CONVEYOR BELT SHOULD HELP SHIFT WINDS TO SOUTHERLY
AT LEAST BY FRIDAY FROM SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL SOUTHWARD. HAINES AND
SKAGWAY RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A DICEY CALL GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND.

AS THE CENTRAL GULF SYSTEM BEGINS TO WIND DOWN LATE THIS WEEK AS
IT STALLS AGAINST STRONGER RIDGING OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN
CONTINENT, FRESH LOWS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC BEGIN TO SUPPLANT ONE
ANOTHER AS THEY SLOW AND WEAKEN IN THE GULF. THUS THE EXTENDED
FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK WET, MILD, AND BREEZY AT TIMES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IMPROVING FOR MID-RANGE, BUT STILL ONLY
AVERAGE. PLACEMENT/TIMING STILL ISSUES FOR WIND. IN ADDITION, SHORT-
WAVE PATH AND TIMING WILL ALSO DICTATE ANY BREAKS FROM PRECIP. AS
SUCH THESE FORECAST ELEMENTS SUPPORT ONLY AVERAGE CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT AND THUS THEY HAVE LARGELY BEEN BROAD-BRUSHED FROM THIS
WEEKEND ONWARD.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-031-033-035-036-042-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041.

&&

$$

GARNER/ADKINS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU










000
FXAK67 PAJK 160035
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
335 PM AKST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...A 984MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND IS
MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST. MODELS HAVE COME INTO REASONABLE
AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS FEATURE AND ALL ARE STAMPING A LOW
BETWEEN 980 AND 983 MB IN THE AFTERNOON MODEL RUN. A FRONT REMAINS
STALLED OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA. ONE WAVE RIDING ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY MADE ITS WAY INTO THE YUKON AND EASTERN
INTERIOR. ANOTHER WAVE IS MOVING NORTH ALONG THE OUTER COAST AS OF
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL ACT TO PULL THE FRONT TO THE WEST.
THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO THE FAR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS,
WHERE TRAINING PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS. THIS HAS BEEN IN THE FORM OF RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT
SNOW AT ELEVATION. OVERNIGHT SNOW AT HAINES CUSTOMS TOTALED 7
INCHES WITH SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ON THE KLONDIKE
HIGHWAY, OVERNIGHT SNOW TOTALED 10 INCHES AT WHITE PASS. SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG BOTH HIGHWAYS TONIGHT, BUT
AS THE WAVE PULLS THE FRONT TO THE WEST, MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE FALLING ELSEWHERE. HENCE, HAVE ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE. OTHER
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING TONIGHT WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING STEADY OR FALLING
ONLY A LITTLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALSO
SUPPORTING RAIN VICE SNOW.

TO THE SOUTH, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN CREATED BETWEEN
THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR THE
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AS WELL AS ALL OF THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES
AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER DURING THE COURSE OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 27 AND 28. AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST, MARINE AND LAND WINDS WILL DIMINISH.

THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IS DRAWING IN A LOT OF COLD AIR AS
SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. MODELED CAPE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY, SO HAVE INCLUDED
THEM FOR ALL OF THE EASTERN GULF FOR TOMORROW BUT HAVE NOT BROUGHT
ANY THUNDER PAST THE OUTER COAST.

BLENDED NAM AND ECMWF FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE AND WIND DIRECTION.
WIND SPEEDS FROM INHERITED GRIDS PLUSH A FEW LOCAL TWEAKS AND
EDITS. TEMPERATURES LOOKED TO BE ON TRACK, SO NO CHANGES THERE.
POP AND QPF FROM A BLEND OF ECMWF PLUS GEM AND GFS AT DIFFERENT
TIMES. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE PATTERN DOES NOT SHIFT ALL THAT MUCH
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WE REMAIN ON THE LEE SIDE OF A LONG WAVE
UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA. THE MAIN
STORM TRACK REMAINS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS BEFORE TERMINATING IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA.

AT THE SURFACE, FORECAST REMAINS ACTIVE FOR MOST OF THE LONG
RANGE. HOWEVER, THE QUIETEST TIME IS THE FIRST DAY TO TWO OF THE
FORECAST WHERE WE ARE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK
HIGH BUILDING INTO WESTERN BC AND THE SOUTHERN YUKON. POPS WILL BE
LOW THROUGH WED NIGHT AS WE GET A BIT OF NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
FOLLOWED BY EASTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW. IN ADDITION THERE IS SOME
COOLER AIR WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AS WELL SO THE
EXTREME NORTHERN PANHANDLE MAY SEE SOME SNOW AT SEA LEVEL IF IT
DOES PRECIP AT ALL.

THIS DOES NOT LAST AS A NEW STRONG FRONT MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH
ON THU. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE ANY PRECIP
OVER TO RAIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SKAGWAY AND HAINES WHERE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER LONGER (THOUGH THE HEAVIER
PRECIP MAY TAKE ITS TIME GETTING THAT FAR NORTH.) WINDS AND RAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE
THE RULE OF THE DAY ACROSS THE GULF THU WITH GALES IN CLARENCE
STRAIT AS WELL. SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND OUTER COAST WILL LIKELY
NEED SOME STRONG WIND HEADLINES THU INTO THU NIGHT AS 850 MB WINDS
REACH 55 TO 65 KT. TOTAL RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE AROUND .5 TO 1.00
INCHES THU INTO THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH RATHER
QUICKLY. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES STILL WITH
STRUCTURE AND TIMING. CURRENT ECMWF IS FARTHEST EAST WITH THE LOW
CENTER WHILE JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING ELSE IS TRENDING TOWARD A
FARTHER WEST SOLUTION. DECIDED ON MORE NAM WITH SOME GFS THROWN IN
FOR THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM.

BEHIND THU`S SYSTEM ARE ANOTHER 2 TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE
AREA BY SUN. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING FITS WITH THESE TWO
TROUGHS. PARTICULARLY ON SAT WHERE THE GFS HAS STORM FORCE WINDS
ALONG THE OUTER COAST WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS SMALL CRAFT WINDS AT
MOST. DECIDED ON STAYING WITH THE WPC DATA TO SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE. ENDED UP WITH MID GALE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF ON SAT
AS A RESULT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RATHER POOR OUT HERE.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018-
     019.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-035-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-031-033-034-053.

&&

$$

FRITSCH/EAL

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU













000
FXAK67 PAJK 160035
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
335 PM AKST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...A 984MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND IS
MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST. MODELS HAVE COME INTO REASONABLE
AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS FEATURE AND ALL ARE STAMPING A LOW
BETWEEN 980 AND 983 MB IN THE AFTERNOON MODEL RUN. A FRONT REMAINS
STALLED OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA. ONE WAVE RIDING ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY MADE ITS WAY INTO THE YUKON AND EASTERN
INTERIOR. ANOTHER WAVE IS MOVING NORTH ALONG THE OUTER COAST AS OF
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL ACT TO PULL THE FRONT TO THE WEST.
THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO THE FAR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS,
WHERE TRAINING PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS. THIS HAS BEEN IN THE FORM OF RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT
SNOW AT ELEVATION. OVERNIGHT SNOW AT HAINES CUSTOMS TOTALED 7
INCHES WITH SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ON THE KLONDIKE
HIGHWAY, OVERNIGHT SNOW TOTALED 10 INCHES AT WHITE PASS. SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG BOTH HIGHWAYS TONIGHT, BUT
AS THE WAVE PULLS THE FRONT TO THE WEST, MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE FALLING ELSEWHERE. HENCE, HAVE ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE. OTHER
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING TONIGHT WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING STEADY OR FALLING
ONLY A LITTLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALSO
SUPPORTING RAIN VICE SNOW.

TO THE SOUTH, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN CREATED BETWEEN
THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR THE
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AS WELL AS ALL OF THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES
AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER DURING THE COURSE OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 27 AND 28. AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST, MARINE AND LAND WINDS WILL DIMINISH.

THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IS DRAWING IN A LOT OF COLD AIR AS
SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. MODELED CAPE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY, SO HAVE INCLUDED
THEM FOR ALL OF THE EASTERN GULF FOR TOMORROW BUT HAVE NOT BROUGHT
ANY THUNDER PAST THE OUTER COAST.

BLENDED NAM AND ECMWF FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE AND WIND DIRECTION.
WIND SPEEDS FROM INHERITED GRIDS PLUSH A FEW LOCAL TWEAKS AND
EDITS. TEMPERATURES LOOKED TO BE ON TRACK, SO NO CHANGES THERE.
POP AND QPF FROM A BLEND OF ECMWF PLUS GEM AND GFS AT DIFFERENT
TIMES. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE PATTERN DOES NOT SHIFT ALL THAT MUCH
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WE REMAIN ON THE LEE SIDE OF A LONG WAVE
UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA. THE MAIN
STORM TRACK REMAINS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS BEFORE TERMINATING IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA.

AT THE SURFACE, FORECAST REMAINS ACTIVE FOR MOST OF THE LONG
RANGE. HOWEVER, THE QUIETEST TIME IS THE FIRST DAY TO TWO OF THE
FORECAST WHERE WE ARE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK
HIGH BUILDING INTO WESTERN BC AND THE SOUTHERN YUKON. POPS WILL BE
LOW THROUGH WED NIGHT AS WE GET A BIT OF NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
FOLLOWED BY EASTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW. IN ADDITION THERE IS SOME
COOLER AIR WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AS WELL SO THE
EXTREME NORTHERN PANHANDLE MAY SEE SOME SNOW AT SEA LEVEL IF IT
DOES PRECIP AT ALL.

THIS DOES NOT LAST AS A NEW STRONG FRONT MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH
ON THU. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE ANY PRECIP
OVER TO RAIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SKAGWAY AND HAINES WHERE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER LONGER (THOUGH THE HEAVIER
PRECIP MAY TAKE ITS TIME GETTING THAT FAR NORTH.) WINDS AND RAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE
THE RULE OF THE DAY ACROSS THE GULF THU WITH GALES IN CLARENCE
STRAIT AS WELL. SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND OUTER COAST WILL LIKELY
NEED SOME STRONG WIND HEADLINES THU INTO THU NIGHT AS 850 MB WINDS
REACH 55 TO 65 KT. TOTAL RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE AROUND .5 TO 1.00
INCHES THU INTO THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH RATHER
QUICKLY. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES STILL WITH
STRUCTURE AND TIMING. CURRENT ECMWF IS FARTHEST EAST WITH THE LOW
CENTER WHILE JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING ELSE IS TRENDING TOWARD A
FARTHER WEST SOLUTION. DECIDED ON MORE NAM WITH SOME GFS THROWN IN
FOR THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM.

BEHIND THU`S SYSTEM ARE ANOTHER 2 TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE
AREA BY SUN. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING FITS WITH THESE TWO
TROUGHS. PARTICULARLY ON SAT WHERE THE GFS HAS STORM FORCE WINDS
ALONG THE OUTER COAST WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS SMALL CRAFT WINDS AT
MOST. DECIDED ON STAYING WITH THE WPC DATA TO SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE. ENDED UP WITH MID GALE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF ON SAT
AS A RESULT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RATHER POOR OUT HERE.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018-
     019.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-035-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-031-033-034-053.

&&

$$

FRITSCH/EAL

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU














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