Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXAK67 PAJK 270033
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
333 PM AKST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM....LOOKED CLOSELY AT STRONG WIND POTENTIAL FOR THE NOTORIOUS
TAKU AREAS AROUND JUNEAU AND BEST GUESS IS 40-50 MPH SUSTAINED
FOR THE GENERAL PERIOD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH POTENTIALLY AS LATE
AS THURSDAY EVENING. THIS ANALYSIS USED PRIMARILY THE MTNWMODEL
ROUTINE, DETAILED NAM CROSS SECTIONS, AND HI-RESW-ARW MODEL
PREDICTIONS. SOME MODELS SUGGESTED EVEN HIGHER BUT HISTORICALLY
THEY HAVE A BIAS TOWARD STRONGER WIND SPEEDS ACCORDING TO OTHERS
HERE WITH MORE EXPERIENCE USING THESE MODELS LOCALLY. BOTTOM
LINE...AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE IN THE
55-65 MPH RANGE AND THUS MARGINAL FOR THE HWW. TIME PERIOD OF RISK
SHOULD BE AROUND 10-12Z THURS (CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST) TO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD SUGGEST MONITORING THE WINDS CLOSELY
AROUND JUNEAU THIS EVENING, AS IT APPEARS THE ONSET OF WIND IS
ALREADY A BIT SLOW...AND MAKING MODIFICATIONS IF NECESSARY. WE
MAINTAINED THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR DOUGLAS/JUNEAU. ALSO STRONG
WINDS FOR HYDER ZONE AND SKAGWAY/HAINES PER PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR
MARINES...SLEW OF GALE WARNINGS WILL BE IMPLEMENTED TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AND MAINTAINED STORM FORCE FOR NORTHERN LYNN WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 70 KT. JPFCST CURRENTLY GIVES 10 MB GRADIENT FOR
SKAGWAY- JUNEAU, MAX 15Z THURS, 6 MB JUNEAU- SITKA, MAX 21Z, AND
11MB JUNEAU- KETCHIKAN, MAX 21Z. FREEZING SPRAY COULD BE A THREAT
FOR LYNN CANAL BUT THE CONSENSUS FOR NOW IS THAT IT WILL NOT GET
INTO THE MODERATE RISK CATEGORY WITH UPSTREAM AIR TEMPERATURES
LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST 30 DEGF IN THE WINDY SKAGWAY AREA. WE DID
NOT INCLUDE FREEZING SPRAY IN THE FORECAST.

GRIDS REQUIRED ONLY MINOR MODIFICATION FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS NEW MODEL RUNS WERE VERY CONSISTENT ON THE LARGER-SCALE
FEATURES. WIND GRIDS WERE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE AS SEVERAL ZONES,
ESP. 25 AND OTHERS IN PRIMARILY THE SOUTH, WILL EXHIBIT THE TYPICAL
LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN MAX AND MIN WINDS. THERMAL FIELDS REQUIRED
SOME TIME AND THOUGHT AS SPREADS WILL BE LARGE BETWEEN WIND-
PROTECTED AREAS AND EXPOSED AREAS LIKE SKAGWAY AND JUNEAU
DOWNTOWN. THE CHALLENGE WAS CHOOSING WHICH OF THE MARGINAL AREAS
WILL BLOW...WHICH WAS TOUGH AND SHOULD BE MONITORED TONIGHT.
EC/NAM WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE PERIOD WITH AVERAGE MODEL
CONFIDENCE FOR THE NON- MESOSCALE FEATURES.


.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE OUTER COAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER TH NORTHERN GULF NEAR CENTRAL GULF
CAST BY LAST SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST INTO SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY AM LOOKING AT AN STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA THAT WILL BE TRYING TO SPREAD A WEATHER BAND
AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GULF TO THE PANHANDLE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BEST ESTIMATE FOR THE START OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN IS
TUESDAY...AND MAY BE STARTING AS SNOW. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE TO
SEE IF IT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNT.

FIRST FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE OUTFLOW WINDS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY TO A MORE NORMAL SET OF WINDS. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COLDEST FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING.
UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES.


&&

.MARINE...

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKST THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR AKZ018.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ029.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-022-031-032-034-036-043-051-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-033-035-041-042.

&&

$$

WESLEY/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 270033
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
333 PM AKST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM....LOOKED CLOSELY AT STRONG WIND POTENTIAL FOR THE NOTORIOUS
TAKU AREAS AROUND JUNEAU AND BEST GUESS IS 40-50 MPH SUSTAINED
FOR THE GENERAL PERIOD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH POTENTIALLY AS LATE
AS THURSDAY EVENING. THIS ANALYSIS USED PRIMARILY THE MTNWMODEL
ROUTINE, DETAILED NAM CROSS SECTIONS, AND HI-RESW-ARW MODEL
PREDICTIONS. SOME MODELS SUGGESTED EVEN HIGHER BUT HISTORICALLY
THEY HAVE A BIAS TOWARD STRONGER WIND SPEEDS ACCORDING TO OTHERS
HERE WITH MORE EXPERIENCE USING THESE MODELS LOCALLY. BOTTOM
LINE...AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE IN THE
55-65 MPH RANGE AND THUS MARGINAL FOR THE HWW. TIME PERIOD OF RISK
SHOULD BE AROUND 10-12Z THURS (CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST) TO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD SUGGEST MONITORING THE WINDS CLOSELY
AROUND JUNEAU THIS EVENING, AS IT APPEARS THE ONSET OF WIND IS
ALREADY A BIT SLOW...AND MAKING MODIFICATIONS IF NECESSARY. WE
MAINTAINED THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR DOUGLAS/JUNEAU. ALSO STRONG
WINDS FOR HYDER ZONE AND SKAGWAY/HAINES PER PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR
MARINES...SLEW OF GALE WARNINGS WILL BE IMPLEMENTED TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AND MAINTAINED STORM FORCE FOR NORTHERN LYNN WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 70 KT. JPFCST CURRENTLY GIVES 10 MB GRADIENT FOR
SKAGWAY- JUNEAU, MAX 15Z THURS, 6 MB JUNEAU- SITKA, MAX 21Z, AND
11MB JUNEAU- KETCHIKAN, MAX 21Z. FREEZING SPRAY COULD BE A THREAT
FOR LYNN CANAL BUT THE CONSENSUS FOR NOW IS THAT IT WILL NOT GET
INTO THE MODERATE RISK CATEGORY WITH UPSTREAM AIR TEMPERATURES
LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST 30 DEGF IN THE WINDY SKAGWAY AREA. WE DID
NOT INCLUDE FREEZING SPRAY IN THE FORECAST.

GRIDS REQUIRED ONLY MINOR MODIFICATION FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS NEW MODEL RUNS WERE VERY CONSISTENT ON THE LARGER-SCALE
FEATURES. WIND GRIDS WERE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE AS SEVERAL ZONES,
ESP. 25 AND OTHERS IN PRIMARILY THE SOUTH, WILL EXHIBIT THE TYPICAL
LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN MAX AND MIN WINDS. THERMAL FIELDS REQUIRED
SOME TIME AND THOUGHT AS SPREADS WILL BE LARGE BETWEEN WIND-
PROTECTED AREAS AND EXPOSED AREAS LIKE SKAGWAY AND JUNEAU
DOWNTOWN. THE CHALLENGE WAS CHOOSING WHICH OF THE MARGINAL AREAS
WILL BLOW...WHICH WAS TOUGH AND SHOULD BE MONITORED TONIGHT.
EC/NAM WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE PERIOD WITH AVERAGE MODEL
CONFIDENCE FOR THE NON- MESOSCALE FEATURES.


.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE OUTER COAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER TH NORTHERN GULF NEAR CENTRAL GULF
CAST BY LAST SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST INTO SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY AM LOOKING AT AN STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA THAT WILL BE TRYING TO SPREAD A WEATHER BAND
AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GULF TO THE PANHANDLE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BEST ESTIMATE FOR THE START OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN IS
TUESDAY...AND MAY BE STARTING AS SNOW. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE TO
SEE IF IT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNT.

FIRST FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE OUTFLOW WINDS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY TO A MORE NORMAL SET OF WINDS. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COLDEST FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING.
UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES.


&&

.MARINE...

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKST THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR AKZ018.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ029.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-022-031-032-034-036-043-051-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-033-035-041-042.

&&

$$

WESLEY/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 261519
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
619 AM AKST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF WILL CONTINUE SEND COLD CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THE YUKON AND SE
AK THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE YUKON AND INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF TO MISTY FJORDS.
A INVERTED TROF FROM A LOW SOUTH OF HAIDA GWAII WILL BE OVER THE
THE INNER CHANNELS THAT WILL INCREASE THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY THIN THROUGH MORNING WITH INCREASING DRY
COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE AREA. THE PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS TO THE LOWER
40S OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COLDER
SIDE THAN IT HAS BEEN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM
THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOW LOWS WILL RANGE FROM TEENS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF TO THE LOWER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. AREAS WHERE
THE WIND IS BLOWING IT WILL BE WARMER AND COLDER IN WIND SHELTERED
AREAS.

WIND WISE...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE THE DAY FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST FROM THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE INCREASING
CROSS BARRIER FLOW FROM THE EAST. THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TAKU WINDS WITH WINDS STARTING TO GUST TO 40 MPH IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT TO
BE AROUND 60 MPH. OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST RANGE WILL SEE
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH GUSTS IN EXPOSED AREAS. THE
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP STRONG WINDS GUSTS OF 45
MPH NEAR THE SKAGWAY,HAINES AND NEAR INTERIOR PASS OF MISTY FJORDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD TEMPS AND
STRONG WINDS WILL GENERATE COLD WINDS CHILLS OF 22 BELOW ZERO
ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS. GALES TO SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS ALONG WITH AREAS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF.
THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
INVERTED TROF MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS OVER NORTHERN LYNN TO STORM FORCE AND SPREAD
GALES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE INNER CHANNELS. GUSTS TO 45 KT
WILL DEVELOP FROM INTERIOR PASSES ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS AND
NEAR THE NORTHEAST GULF AND IN YAKUTAT BAY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE OUTFLOW WINDS GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 65 KT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWELL FROM 10 TO 14 FT WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DOWN LYNN CANAL INTO NORTHERN CHATHAM FROM FULLY
DEVELOPED SEAS PRODUCED FROM THE STORM AND GALE FORCE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC TRACKS TOWARDS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE INVERTED TROUGH THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE PANHANDLE
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AS WELL THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE OUTFLOW WINDS
MOVE IN COLD POLAR AIR MASS FROM WESTERN CANADA TEMPS WILL DROP
INTO THE LOW TEENS OVERNIGHT AND LOW TO MID 20S DURING THE DAY.
CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL AID IN DROPPING THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS POSSIBLY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. LOCATIONS WITH THE
STRONGER OUTFLOW, GAP FLOW AND GRADIENT WINDS WILL SEE WARMER
TEMPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. INDICATIONS THAT A SHORT WAVE WILL FORM
IN THE NORTHERN AK GULF SATURDAY EVENING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM A CLOSED LOW IN THE CHUKCHI SEA. THE WAVE WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO
EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH A DEEP COLD AIR MASS
DEVELOPING OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEK THERE IS POTENTIAL
OF AN OVER RUNNING SNOW EVENT WHICH WOULD PRODUCE THE FIRST
MEASURABLE SNOW OF THE SEASON. BEHIND THIS FIRST WAVE LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY SHOULD BE A STRONGER SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN THE BERING SEA. INDICATIONS THIS SYSTEM
WOULD HAVE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS BUT IT MOVES IN A WARMER AIR MASS
AND THIS PRECIP MAY BE MAINLY RAIN.

THE STRONG WINDS ARE A RESULT OF TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE CANADIAN HIGH AND THE PANHANDLE INVERTED TROUGH. STRONGEST
GRADIENT LOOKS TO OCCUR AROUND 15Z THURSDAY THEN WEAKENS AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH AND PANHANDLE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.
FOR THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AREA HE TAKU WINDS THAT BEGIN
TO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. LATEST MOUNTAIN WAVE MODEL RUNS HAD STRONGER CROSS BARRIER
FLOW AT 850 MB BUT WERE NOT SHOWING THE TYPICAL 500 MB CRITICAL
LEVEL, BUT ARE INDICATIONS OF INDUCED CRITICAL LEVEL. IN ADDITION
TO THE EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND GAP WINDS, A NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PRODUCED GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE N-S
ORIENTATED INNER CHANNELS WITH STRONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS. WITH THE LONG FETCH OF SUSTAINED STRONG WINDS FROM N
LYNN CANAL DOWN TO N CHATHAM STRAIT EXPECT HIGHER SEAS TO DEVELOP.

WHILE THE NEWER MODEL RUNS DID INDICATE HIGHER CROSS BARRIER FLOW
THERE WERE NOT MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND
FORECAST. CHANGES FOR THE WEEK WERE MINOR. THE MODEL SPREAD
INCREASED WITH THESE NEXT SERIES OF SHORT WAVES FOR THE WEEKEND,
AND DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR MODEL RUN TO
MAKE LARGE CHANGES. GFS SEEMED TO KEEP THE REGION DRIER WHILE THE
ECMWF PUSH IN MORE PRECIP BY LATE SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS BIT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK THEN DROPS BELOW AVERAGE BY THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKST THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR AKZ018-019.
         STRONG WIND FROM 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     AKZ029.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-022-031-032-034-036-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-033-035-041>043-053.

&&

$$

ABJ/PRB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK67 PAJK 261519
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
619 AM AKST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF WILL CONTINUE SEND COLD CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THE YUKON AND SE
AK THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE YUKON AND INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF TO MISTY FJORDS.
A INVERTED TROF FROM A LOW SOUTH OF HAIDA GWAII WILL BE OVER THE
THE INNER CHANNELS THAT WILL INCREASE THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY THIN THROUGH MORNING WITH INCREASING DRY
COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE AREA. THE PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS TO THE LOWER
40S OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COLDER
SIDE THAN IT HAS BEEN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM
THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOW LOWS WILL RANGE FROM TEENS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF TO THE LOWER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. AREAS WHERE
THE WIND IS BLOWING IT WILL BE WARMER AND COLDER IN WIND SHELTERED
AREAS.

WIND WISE...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE THE DAY FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST FROM THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE INCREASING
CROSS BARRIER FLOW FROM THE EAST. THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TAKU WINDS WITH WINDS STARTING TO GUST TO 40 MPH IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT TO
BE AROUND 60 MPH. OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST RANGE WILL SEE
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH GUSTS IN EXPOSED AREAS. THE
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP STRONG WINDS GUSTS OF 45
MPH NEAR THE SKAGWAY,HAINES AND NEAR INTERIOR PASS OF MISTY FJORDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD TEMPS AND
STRONG WINDS WILL GENERATE COLD WINDS CHILLS OF 22 BELOW ZERO
ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS. GALES TO SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS ALONG WITH AREAS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF.
THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
INVERTED TROF MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS OVER NORTHERN LYNN TO STORM FORCE AND SPREAD
GALES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE INNER CHANNELS. GUSTS TO 45 KT
WILL DEVELOP FROM INTERIOR PASSES ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS AND
NEAR THE NORTHEAST GULF AND IN YAKUTAT BAY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE OUTFLOW WINDS GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 65 KT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWELL FROM 10 TO 14 FT WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DOWN LYNN CANAL INTO NORTHERN CHATHAM FROM FULLY
DEVELOPED SEAS PRODUCED FROM THE STORM AND GALE FORCE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC TRACKS TOWARDS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE INVERTED TROUGH THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE PANHANDLE
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AS WELL THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE OUTFLOW WINDS
MOVE IN COLD POLAR AIR MASS FROM WESTERN CANADA TEMPS WILL DROP
INTO THE LOW TEENS OVERNIGHT AND LOW TO MID 20S DURING THE DAY.
CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL AID IN DROPPING THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS POSSIBLY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. LOCATIONS WITH THE
STRONGER OUTFLOW, GAP FLOW AND GRADIENT WINDS WILL SEE WARMER
TEMPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. INDICATIONS THAT A SHORT WAVE WILL FORM
IN THE NORTHERN AK GULF SATURDAY EVENING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM A CLOSED LOW IN THE CHUKCHI SEA. THE WAVE WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO
EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH A DEEP COLD AIR MASS
DEVELOPING OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEK THERE IS POTENTIAL
OF AN OVER RUNNING SNOW EVENT WHICH WOULD PRODUCE THE FIRST
MEASURABLE SNOW OF THE SEASON. BEHIND THIS FIRST WAVE LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY SHOULD BE A STRONGER SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN THE BERING SEA. INDICATIONS THIS SYSTEM
WOULD HAVE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS BUT IT MOVES IN A WARMER AIR MASS
AND THIS PRECIP MAY BE MAINLY RAIN.

THE STRONG WINDS ARE A RESULT OF TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE CANADIAN HIGH AND THE PANHANDLE INVERTED TROUGH. STRONGEST
GRADIENT LOOKS TO OCCUR AROUND 15Z THURSDAY THEN WEAKENS AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH AND PANHANDLE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.
FOR THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AREA HE TAKU WINDS THAT BEGIN
TO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. LATEST MOUNTAIN WAVE MODEL RUNS HAD STRONGER CROSS BARRIER
FLOW AT 850 MB BUT WERE NOT SHOWING THE TYPICAL 500 MB CRITICAL
LEVEL, BUT ARE INDICATIONS OF INDUCED CRITICAL LEVEL. IN ADDITION
TO THE EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND GAP WINDS, A NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PRODUCED GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE N-S
ORIENTATED INNER CHANNELS WITH STRONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS. WITH THE LONG FETCH OF SUSTAINED STRONG WINDS FROM N
LYNN CANAL DOWN TO N CHATHAM STRAIT EXPECT HIGHER SEAS TO DEVELOP.

WHILE THE NEWER MODEL RUNS DID INDICATE HIGHER CROSS BARRIER FLOW
THERE WERE NOT MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND
FORECAST. CHANGES FOR THE WEEK WERE MINOR. THE MODEL SPREAD
INCREASED WITH THESE NEXT SERIES OF SHORT WAVES FOR THE WEEKEND,
AND DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR MODEL RUN TO
MAKE LARGE CHANGES. GFS SEEMED TO KEEP THE REGION DRIER WHILE THE
ECMWF PUSH IN MORE PRECIP BY LATE SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS BIT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK THEN DROPS BELOW AVERAGE BY THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKST THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR AKZ018-019.
         STRONG WIND FROM 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     AKZ029.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-022-031-032-034-036-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-033-035-041>043-053.

&&

$$

ABJ/PRB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 252350
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
250 PM AKST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO MOVE ONSHORE. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER YUKON BUILDS SOUTH TOWARDS THE
PANHANDLE. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, WHILE SOME CLOUDS
WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WITH REMNANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT, DO EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO
FORM OVER PART OF THE PANHANDLE INCLUDING JUNEAU, PETERSBURG,
WRANGELL, ANGOON, HOONAH, GUSTAVUS, AND ELFIN COVE. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY.

 AS THE YUKON HIGH BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH-SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED
IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL. STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL DEVELOP IN
SKAGWAY AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AREA STARTING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT OF
MOUNTAIN PASSES. BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.

 WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR YAKUTAT
AREA WILL DIP TO THE LOW 20S. THE LOW TEMPERATURES IN SKAGWAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 30S, AS NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL LEAD TO DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING FOR THE AREA. FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE,
DO EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. FOR WEDNESDAY, HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, TO THE MID 40S
IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. APPROXIMATELY AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST OM WEDNESDAY.

 FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL
SUGGESTING A BUILDING HIGH FROM YUKON INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. UTILIZED A BLEND OF GEM/NAM WHEN REFRESHING THE
INHERITED GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...DRYING TREND FROM LATE WEDNESDAY ONWARD WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY AN ARCTIC FRONT AND STRONG WINDS IN MANY AREAS
THROUGH THURSDAY. COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON THUS FAR ARE
LIKELY BY LATE THURSDAY AREA-WIDE...BUT ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
RELATIVELY DRY DUE TO NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DOMINATING
BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY. STRONG CROSS-BARRIER OUTFLOW WINDS ARE
LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN FAVORED AREAS. AT THIS POINT
EXPECT MOSTLY BORA CONDITIONS IN THE TAKU-EXPOSED AREAS WITHOUT A
WELL-DEFINED CRITICAL LEVEL AT THIS POINT ON THE MODELS...AND
THIS MIGHT LIMIT THE MAXIMUM WINDS AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT LOW-
LEVEL ACCELERATION AND WIND SHEAR. EVEN SO...WE ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR POTENTIAL OF LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 60MPH+ IN THE JUNEAU
ZONE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, AND FOR STRONG WINDS IN THE
SKAGWAY AREA. GUSTS FOR EXPOSED AREAS MAY EXCEED 40 MPH IN THE
LATTER ZONE. FOR MARINE ZONES...FREEZING SPRAY MAY BE A PROBLEM
DEPENDING ON HOW COLD THE OFFSHORE AIR MASS ENDS UP...WATER
TEMPERATURES STILL IN MID-40S...WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS. GUSTS
WILL GENERALLY BE LOWER FOR SOUTHERN AREAS ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE
PANHANDLE WILL BE POST-FRONTAL BY WED EVENING. AT THIS POINT WE
HAVE SEVERAL GALES ANTICIPATED FOR NORTHERN CHANNELS AND STORM-
FORCE WINDS IN THE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LYNN FOR WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...DEBATED ON THIS AND DECIDED THAT GRADIENTS MAY END UP
EVEN STRONGER THAN THE STRONG VALUES PREDICTED BY THE MODELS. THE
VALUE IS CURRENTLY 10MB FOR SKAGWAY- JUNEAU ON THE NAM12 AND 12MB
FOR JUNEAU- KETCHIKAN. OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 50-60MPH FROM THE TYPICAL
PASSES ADJACENT TO COMMUNITIES AND INNER CHANNELS WERE MENTIONED
IN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF NORTH-TO-SOUTH LATE WED BUT WED-THURS NIGHT
LOWS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON LOCAL WINDS. TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE FOR FRI NIGHT OVER MANY AREAS IN THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PANHANDLE. UTILIZED NAM/EC GUIDANCE FOR DAYS 3-5
FOR SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS AND THERMAL FIELDS AND FOR QPF
UPDATES. AFTER THAT POINT MERGED TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST POST- COLD MOISTURE FIELDS IS LOW.
THE EC FOR EXAMPLE HAS SNOW MOVING IN LATE SUNDAY FOR THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE BUT THE GFS NOW DELAYS THIS UNTIL MON- TUES. IT IS LIKELY
THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN DURING EARLY WEEK AS LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODIFY BEGINNING OVER THE WEEKEND. MODEL
CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SYNOPTIC FLOWS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-022-031-036-051-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041.

&&

$$

RCL/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU












000
FXAK67 PAJK 252350
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
250 PM AKST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO MOVE ONSHORE. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER YUKON BUILDS SOUTH TOWARDS THE
PANHANDLE. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, WHILE SOME CLOUDS
WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WITH REMNANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT, DO EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO
FORM OVER PART OF THE PANHANDLE INCLUDING JUNEAU, PETERSBURG,
WRANGELL, ANGOON, HOONAH, GUSTAVUS, AND ELFIN COVE. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY.

 AS THE YUKON HIGH BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH-SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED
IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL. STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL DEVELOP IN
SKAGWAY AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AREA STARTING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT OF
MOUNTAIN PASSES. BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.

 WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR YAKUTAT
AREA WILL DIP TO THE LOW 20S. THE LOW TEMPERATURES IN SKAGWAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 30S, AS NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL LEAD TO DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING FOR THE AREA. FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE,
DO EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. FOR WEDNESDAY, HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, TO THE MID 40S
IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. APPROXIMATELY AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST OM WEDNESDAY.

 FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL
SUGGESTING A BUILDING HIGH FROM YUKON INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. UTILIZED A BLEND OF GEM/NAM WHEN REFRESHING THE
INHERITED GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...DRYING TREND FROM LATE WEDNESDAY ONWARD WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY AN ARCTIC FRONT AND STRONG WINDS IN MANY AREAS
THROUGH THURSDAY. COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON THUS FAR ARE
LIKELY BY LATE THURSDAY AREA-WIDE...BUT ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
RELATIVELY DRY DUE TO NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DOMINATING
BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY. STRONG CROSS-BARRIER OUTFLOW WINDS ARE
LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN FAVORED AREAS. AT THIS POINT
EXPECT MOSTLY BORA CONDITIONS IN THE TAKU-EXPOSED AREAS WITHOUT A
WELL-DEFINED CRITICAL LEVEL AT THIS POINT ON THE MODELS...AND
THIS MIGHT LIMIT THE MAXIMUM WINDS AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT LOW-
LEVEL ACCELERATION AND WIND SHEAR. EVEN SO...WE ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR POTENTIAL OF LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 60MPH+ IN THE JUNEAU
ZONE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, AND FOR STRONG WINDS IN THE
SKAGWAY AREA. GUSTS FOR EXPOSED AREAS MAY EXCEED 40 MPH IN THE
LATTER ZONE. FOR MARINE ZONES...FREEZING SPRAY MAY BE A PROBLEM
DEPENDING ON HOW COLD THE OFFSHORE AIR MASS ENDS UP...WATER
TEMPERATURES STILL IN MID-40S...WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS. GUSTS
WILL GENERALLY BE LOWER FOR SOUTHERN AREAS ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE
PANHANDLE WILL BE POST-FRONTAL BY WED EVENING. AT THIS POINT WE
HAVE SEVERAL GALES ANTICIPATED FOR NORTHERN CHANNELS AND STORM-
FORCE WINDS IN THE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LYNN FOR WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...DEBATED ON THIS AND DECIDED THAT GRADIENTS MAY END UP
EVEN STRONGER THAN THE STRONG VALUES PREDICTED BY THE MODELS. THE
VALUE IS CURRENTLY 10MB FOR SKAGWAY- JUNEAU ON THE NAM12 AND 12MB
FOR JUNEAU- KETCHIKAN. OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 50-60MPH FROM THE TYPICAL
PASSES ADJACENT TO COMMUNITIES AND INNER CHANNELS WERE MENTIONED
IN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF NORTH-TO-SOUTH LATE WED BUT WED-THURS NIGHT
LOWS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON LOCAL WINDS. TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE FOR FRI NIGHT OVER MANY AREAS IN THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PANHANDLE. UTILIZED NAM/EC GUIDANCE FOR DAYS 3-5
FOR SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS AND THERMAL FIELDS AND FOR QPF
UPDATES. AFTER THAT POINT MERGED TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST POST- COLD MOISTURE FIELDS IS LOW.
THE EC FOR EXAMPLE HAS SNOW MOVING IN LATE SUNDAY FOR THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE BUT THE GFS NOW DELAYS THIS UNTIL MON- TUES. IT IS LIKELY
THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN DURING EARLY WEEK AS LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODIFY BEGINNING OVER THE WEEKEND. MODEL
CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SYNOPTIC FLOWS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-022-031-036-051-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041.

&&

$$

RCL/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU











000
FXAK67 PAJK 251511
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
611 AM AKST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...FRAGMENTED UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
POSITIONED THIS MORNING FROM THE NRN GULF SWD INTO THE NCNTRL PAC.
MEANWHILE...BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
TROUGH OVER THE NERN PAC AND WRN CONUS. STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT...IN A RELATIVE SENSE...WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SRN
PANHANDLE TODAY AS THE TROUGH OVER THE NRN GULF SHIFTS EWD INTO
SERN AK. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED ONSHORE
FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.

BY TONIGHT...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH WILL SHEAR APART AND
WEAKEN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SUBSEQUENTLY BUILDING IN ITS WAKE OVER
NWRN CANADA AND THE INTERIOR OF AK. THIS WILL ADVECT A COLDER
AIRMASS /AROUND -6 TO -8C AT H85/ SWD FROM THE YUKON INTO THE NRN
PANHANDLE. THUS...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA MAY YIELD VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL NEAR SEA LEVEL. HOWEVER...THIS
POSSIBILITY WILL BE POTENTIALLY NEGATED BY LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
ADVECTION AS OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION.

OTHERWISE...SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN COLDER LOW TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 20S OVER NRN AREAS...TO 30S FOR SRN AREAS. THE
COOLING SURFACE AIRMASS WOULD USUALLY YIELD A NIGHT OF ENHANCED
FOG POTENTIAL AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF RAIN. NEGATIVE FACTOR WILL BE
STEADILY LOWERING DEWPOINTS DURING THE NIGHT. THUS...DECIDED TO
ONLY KEEP PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG FOR LAND ZONE 26 /PETERSBURG/.
ONLY HAZARD IN EFFECT DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SMALL CRAFT
SEAS NEAR 8 FT PERSISTING OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS. IN
ADDITION...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN
OVER NRN LYNN CANAL TONIGHT...WHICH WILL AID IN NLY WINDS
STRENGTHENING TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT...AROUND 20 KT.

.LONG TERM...BIG PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE WAY STARTING WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING IN DRIER,
COLDER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS
ABOVE AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE AS THE PATTERN HAS BEEN STABLE
FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THIS TREND ALONG WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT.

A HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE CHAIN WILL
BUILD NORTHWARD MOVE OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL TROF FROM THE ARCTIC SLIDES DOWN THE FRONT SIDE AND MOVE OVER
THE SE AK. THIS WILL COLD AIR WILL BUILD A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
INTERIOR OF ALASKA AND YUKON. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR
ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS WIND FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FROM THE NORTH AND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE WILL
BE GALES TO MAX SMALL CRAFTS WINDS OVER THE MARINE WATERS WITH
STRONG GUSTS FROM INTERIOR PASSES TO 50 KT. LAND WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO BE WINDY IN EXPOSED AREAS WITH STRONG WINDS OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND A TAKU WINDS IN THE JUNEAU AREA.
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE STRONGEST ON THURSDAY WITH GUST RANGING
FROM 45 TO 55 MPH. NORTHERN LYNN WILL INCREASE TO STORM FORCE
WINDS WITH A 10+MB GRADIENT FROM SKAGWAY TO JUNEAU. ALONG WITH THE
WINDS THERE WILL BE VERY COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. HIGH TEMPS WILL BARELY GET ABOVE FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THEM IN THE LOWER 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY HIGHS WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME GETTING OUT OF THE 20S WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -10
TO -14C. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE FAR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS TO MID TEENS IN THE CENTRAL AND
LOWERS 20S OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE IN
THE WINDIER PLACES AND COLDEST IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS.

THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY SO ALL OF
THE STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX BUT GUSTS FROM INTERIOR
PASSES ALONG THE COAST RANGE WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER
HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
BEGIN TO INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE TEMPS. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW ON SUNDAY BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
ON THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THAT WILL
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW. THE EC DEPICTS A LOW DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE
LATEST GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THIS SOLUTION AND KEEPS THE DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER WEST. GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE CONTINUES TO BE
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH WHAT WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF AND MOVE A
FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREAS. REGARDLESS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW SOME TIME NEXT WEEK FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN CHANGES BACK TO A MORE ONSHORE
FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043-052.

&&

$$

GARNER/ABJ

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK67 PAJK 251511
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
611 AM AKST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...FRAGMENTED UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
POSITIONED THIS MORNING FROM THE NRN GULF SWD INTO THE NCNTRL PAC.
MEANWHILE...BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
TROUGH OVER THE NERN PAC AND WRN CONUS. STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT...IN A RELATIVE SENSE...WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SRN
PANHANDLE TODAY AS THE TROUGH OVER THE NRN GULF SHIFTS EWD INTO
SERN AK. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED ONSHORE
FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.

BY TONIGHT...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH WILL SHEAR APART AND
WEAKEN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SUBSEQUENTLY BUILDING IN ITS WAKE OVER
NWRN CANADA AND THE INTERIOR OF AK. THIS WILL ADVECT A COLDER
AIRMASS /AROUND -6 TO -8C AT H85/ SWD FROM THE YUKON INTO THE NRN
PANHANDLE. THUS...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA MAY YIELD VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL NEAR SEA LEVEL. HOWEVER...THIS
POSSIBILITY WILL BE POTENTIALLY NEGATED BY LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
ADVECTION AS OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION.

OTHERWISE...SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN COLDER LOW TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 20S OVER NRN AREAS...TO 30S FOR SRN AREAS. THE
COOLING SURFACE AIRMASS WOULD USUALLY YIELD A NIGHT OF ENHANCED
FOG POTENTIAL AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF RAIN. NEGATIVE FACTOR WILL BE
STEADILY LOWERING DEWPOINTS DURING THE NIGHT. THUS...DECIDED TO
ONLY KEEP PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG FOR LAND ZONE 26 /PETERSBURG/.
ONLY HAZARD IN EFFECT DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SMALL CRAFT
SEAS NEAR 8 FT PERSISTING OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS. IN
ADDITION...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN
OVER NRN LYNN CANAL TONIGHT...WHICH WILL AID IN NLY WINDS
STRENGTHENING TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT...AROUND 20 KT.

.LONG TERM...BIG PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE WAY STARTING WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING IN DRIER,
COLDER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS
ABOVE AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE AS THE PATTERN HAS BEEN STABLE
FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THIS TREND ALONG WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT.

A HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE CHAIN WILL
BUILD NORTHWARD MOVE OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL TROF FROM THE ARCTIC SLIDES DOWN THE FRONT SIDE AND MOVE OVER
THE SE AK. THIS WILL COLD AIR WILL BUILD A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
INTERIOR OF ALASKA AND YUKON. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR
ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS WIND FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FROM THE NORTH AND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE WILL
BE GALES TO MAX SMALL CRAFTS WINDS OVER THE MARINE WATERS WITH
STRONG GUSTS FROM INTERIOR PASSES TO 50 KT. LAND WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO BE WINDY IN EXPOSED AREAS WITH STRONG WINDS OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND A TAKU WINDS IN THE JUNEAU AREA.
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE STRONGEST ON THURSDAY WITH GUST RANGING
FROM 45 TO 55 MPH. NORTHERN LYNN WILL INCREASE TO STORM FORCE
WINDS WITH A 10+MB GRADIENT FROM SKAGWAY TO JUNEAU. ALONG WITH THE
WINDS THERE WILL BE VERY COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. HIGH TEMPS WILL BARELY GET ABOVE FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THEM IN THE LOWER 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY HIGHS WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME GETTING OUT OF THE 20S WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -10
TO -14C. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE FAR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS TO MID TEENS IN THE CENTRAL AND
LOWERS 20S OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE IN
THE WINDIER PLACES AND COLDEST IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS.

THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY SO ALL OF
THE STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX BUT GUSTS FROM INTERIOR
PASSES ALONG THE COAST RANGE WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER
HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
BEGIN TO INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE TEMPS. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW ON SUNDAY BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
ON THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THAT WILL
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW. THE EC DEPICTS A LOW DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE
LATEST GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THIS SOLUTION AND KEEPS THE DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER WEST. GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE CONTINUES TO BE
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH WHAT WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF AND MOVE A
FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREAS. REGARDLESS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW SOME TIME NEXT WEEK FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN CHANGES BACK TO A MORE ONSHORE
FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043-052.

&&

$$

GARNER/ABJ

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 250016
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
316 PM AKST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...AN OLD LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE PANHANDLE LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. A BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
NORTHEAST AND EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN HAIDA GWAII AND THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST. OUT OVER THE BERING SEE AND WEST CENTRAL PACIFIC
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING THAT WILL BE A FUTURE WEATHER
PRODUCER FOR ALASKA. ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN AN OPEN CELL COLLECTION TO A LOOSELY COLLECTED BAND ARE MOVING
EASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER NIGHT OR
THERE WILL BE BRIEF BREAK THIS EVENING THEN PICKING UP TOWARDS
MORNING AND ENDING EARLY TUESDAY. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AREA AND
SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. LOCALLY ENOUGH COOLER AIR AROUND THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS NEAR
SEA LEVEL ARE STAYING IN THE SOLID FORM. ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS
APPEAR TO LIMITED TO TRACE AMOUNTS WITH EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER
ALTITUDES WHERE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS MAY PICK UP.

WINDS SUBSIDING ACROSS THE AREA SO THE ONLY HAZARDS FOR THE PUBLIC
AND MARINE ZONES ARE SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DUE TO SEAS FOR
THE OUTER WATERS AND THOSE ARE EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES BEGINNING WED MORNING AND LASTING
THROUGH THE LONG TERM ARE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES. GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN BY WED MORNING IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS INTERIOR AIR
BECOMES AIDED BY INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY A DRYING PATTERN THOUGH...ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL
OF PATCHY FOG WED. PM OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. GRADIENT
INCREASES AND FRONT OF ARCTIC ORIGIN MOVES SOUTH DOWN THE
PANHANDLE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY CLEAR WITH
THE DRY AIR INVASION. HOWEVER THE FRONT HAS COMPLICATED THE
GRIDDED TEMPERATURE FIELDS AND THESE WILL LIKELY NEED UPDATING.
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE AIDED BY LOCAL DOWNSLOPE FLOWS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN WAVES DURING THE WED- THURS TIMEFRAME. WE
RELIED PRIMARILY ON TODAY`S EC/NAM OUTPUT ALONG WITH INHERITED
FORECASTS TO COME UP WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE WED
MORNING...INCREASING TO 45 KT IN FAVORED INNER CHANNELS WITH GUSTS
TO 60 WED NIGHT AND THURS...AND THIS MAY BE EVEN A BIT
CONSERVATIVE. THUS GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED AS
THIS APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A SHARP DROP WITH THIS
NLY/NELY FLOW TO THEIR COLDEST LEVELS OF THE SEASON SO FAR (MID-
TEENS)...AND THAT MAY BE OVERESTIMATED AT THIS POINT. IT WILL BE
TRICKY DETERMINING NIGHTTIME LOWS AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP SOME
AREAS NOT-A-COLD. COLD, DRY PATTERN PREDICTED TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEK.
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME SIGNIFICANT OVER THE WEEKEND...EC HAS THE
AREA UNDER PRIMARILY UPPER RIDGING (WITH POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL
ARCTIC INTRUSIONS) UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. GEM PUMPS UP A SOUTHERN
GULF LOW ON SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS HAS THE CENTRAL GULF GETTING
ACTIVE BY SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT LEANING TOWARDS EC BASED ON
RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE...ALONG WITH THE POSITION OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS IN THE BERING/ALEUTIANS. WE
WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE AFTER ABOUT DAY 5 AND MODEL CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST FIVE DAYS AND BELOW AVERAGE AFTER THAT
POINT.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-041>043-051>053.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 250016
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
316 PM AKST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...AN OLD LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE PANHANDLE LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. A BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
NORTHEAST AND EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN HAIDA GWAII AND THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST. OUT OVER THE BERING SEE AND WEST CENTRAL PACIFIC
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING THAT WILL BE A FUTURE WEATHER
PRODUCER FOR ALASKA. ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN AN OPEN CELL COLLECTION TO A LOOSELY COLLECTED BAND ARE MOVING
EASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER NIGHT OR
THERE WILL BE BRIEF BREAK THIS EVENING THEN PICKING UP TOWARDS
MORNING AND ENDING EARLY TUESDAY. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AREA AND
SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. LOCALLY ENOUGH COOLER AIR AROUND THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS NEAR
SEA LEVEL ARE STAYING IN THE SOLID FORM. ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS
APPEAR TO LIMITED TO TRACE AMOUNTS WITH EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER
ALTITUDES WHERE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS MAY PICK UP.

WINDS SUBSIDING ACROSS THE AREA SO THE ONLY HAZARDS FOR THE PUBLIC
AND MARINE ZONES ARE SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DUE TO SEAS FOR
THE OUTER WATERS AND THOSE ARE EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES BEGINNING WED MORNING AND LASTING
THROUGH THE LONG TERM ARE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES. GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN BY WED MORNING IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS INTERIOR AIR
BECOMES AIDED BY INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY A DRYING PATTERN THOUGH...ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL
OF PATCHY FOG WED. PM OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. GRADIENT
INCREASES AND FRONT OF ARCTIC ORIGIN MOVES SOUTH DOWN THE
PANHANDLE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY CLEAR WITH
THE DRY AIR INVASION. HOWEVER THE FRONT HAS COMPLICATED THE
GRIDDED TEMPERATURE FIELDS AND THESE WILL LIKELY NEED UPDATING.
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE AIDED BY LOCAL DOWNSLOPE FLOWS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN WAVES DURING THE WED- THURS TIMEFRAME. WE
RELIED PRIMARILY ON TODAY`S EC/NAM OUTPUT ALONG WITH INHERITED
FORECASTS TO COME UP WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE WED
MORNING...INCREASING TO 45 KT IN FAVORED INNER CHANNELS WITH GUSTS
TO 60 WED NIGHT AND THURS...AND THIS MAY BE EVEN A BIT
CONSERVATIVE. THUS GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED AS
THIS APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A SHARP DROP WITH THIS
NLY/NELY FLOW TO THEIR COLDEST LEVELS OF THE SEASON SO FAR (MID-
TEENS)...AND THAT MAY BE OVERESTIMATED AT THIS POINT. IT WILL BE
TRICKY DETERMINING NIGHTTIME LOWS AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP SOME
AREAS NOT-A-COLD. COLD, DRY PATTERN PREDICTED TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEK.
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME SIGNIFICANT OVER THE WEEKEND...EC HAS THE
AREA UNDER PRIMARILY UPPER RIDGING (WITH POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL
ARCTIC INTRUSIONS) UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. GEM PUMPS UP A SOUTHERN
GULF LOW ON SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS HAS THE CENTRAL GULF GETTING
ACTIVE BY SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT LEANING TOWARDS EC BASED ON
RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE...ALONG WITH THE POSITION OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS IN THE BERING/ALEUTIANS. WE
WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE AFTER ABOUT DAY 5 AND MODEL CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST FIVE DAYS AND BELOW AVERAGE AFTER THAT
POINT.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-041>043-051>053.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 241425
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
525 AM AKST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM THE INTERIOR OF
AK INTO THE NCNTRL PAC. A BROAD RIDGE EXISTS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS
FEATURE OVER THE NERN PAC...WITH AN ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED 140+
KT JET ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE NEAR HAIDA GWAII...AND THEN
DIVING SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE LOWER 48. N OF THE
JET...A WEAK 1003 MB SURFACE LOW RESIDES IMMEDIATELY OFFSHORE FROM
SITKA...AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES ONSHORE BY
MIDDAY.

PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUFFICIENTLY TIGHT FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF
GUSTY WINDS IN KETCHIKAN THROUGH 15Z MON. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD
OF SLY GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CLARENCE STRAIT DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN GOING INTO
THE AFTERNOON...WITH DIRECTIONS OCCASIONALLY BECOMING VARIABLE
OVER THE NRN INNER CHANNELS AS THE REGION TRANSITIONS BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. ELSEWHERE...LONG PERIOD SWELLS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 8-11 FEET WILL PERSIST OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

PLUME OF STRONG ASCENT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE SRN
PANHANDLE...AND SUPPORTED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EARLIER IN THE
MORNING. THIS RAIN WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY...WITH THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE GOING BACK TO A SHOWER REGIME BY
TONIGHT DUE TO THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF ONSHORE MIDLEVEL FLOW AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES. SHOWERS MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE NUMEROUS
TONIGHT...AS A MODEST INCREASE IN ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH...THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE E ACROSS THE NRN GULF.

.LONG TERM...AS A SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA
TUESDAY A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ALONG WITH IT. BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE, WINDS WILL BEGIN BACKING OFFSHORE WHICH WILL SLOWLY
ERODE THE SHOWERS FROM THE MIDLEVELS DOWNWARD. THE RESULTANT
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DRAIN COLDER AIR FROM THE ALASKA INTERIOR
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE JUST AS THE LAST FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING. THUS ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO ANGOON. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT
AND UNIMPACTFUL.

CLEARING WILL SPREAD FROM THE NORTHWEST MAXIMIZING RADIATIONAL
COOLING THROUGH MIDWEEK. THUS PATCHY FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE MORNING OR PERHAPS LONGER ON
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL COOL WELL INTO THE
20S FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND TO NEAR FREEZING FOR MUCH OF
THE REST. BEYOND WEDNESDAY A TIGHTENING GRADIENT SHOULD IMPEDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT/PERSISTENCE.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE A RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BUILD
NORTHWARD AND SHARPEN IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING COMPLEX LOW
SETTLING IN THE BERING SEA. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE FLOW
WILL INCREASE ITS NORTHERLY COMPONENT AND WILL USHER MUCH COLDER
AIR INTO THE YUKON. THE COLD AIR WILL STRENGTHEN HIGH PRESSURE ON
THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE COAST MOUNTAINS AND INCREASE THE CROSS-
BARRIER GRADIENT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ALL THE
WAY TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COAST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
TEENS LIKELY FOR AREAS OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AWAY FROM WATER.
GRADIENTS OF 6 TO 7 MB BETWEEN SKAGWAY AND JUNEAU WILL DRIVE OUTFLOW
WINDS TO GALE FORCE THROUGH LYNN CANAL AND SIMILAR GRADIENTS
SPANNING STEPHENS PASSAGE WILL PUSH IT TO SOLID SMALL CRAFT. NOT
LOST IN THIS PATTERN CHANGE IS A DRY SHORT-WAVE DROPPING SOUTH OVER
THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY THAT
WILL POTENTIALLY SEED A MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT OVER DOWNTOWN JUNEAU.

THE RIDGE AXIS MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND, ONCE AGAIN EXPOSING SOUTHEAST ALASKA PERHAPS TO A LITTLE
MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW REGIME. THUS CLOUDS RETURN AND WE CANNOT
RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...PROBABLY
MIXED WITH SNOW AS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT HAVE MODERATED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOOD GOING INTO THANKSGIVING, BUT DROPPING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS TO HOW/WHEN THE RIDGE INEVITABLY BREAKS DOWN.
NAM/ECMWF USED FOR UPDATES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NUDGE
TO ECMWF THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. REST OF FORECAST ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 AM AKST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-041-042-052-053.

&&

$$

GARNER/ADKINS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU












000
FXAK67 PAJK 241425
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
525 AM AKST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM THE INTERIOR OF
AK INTO THE NCNTRL PAC. A BROAD RIDGE EXISTS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS
FEATURE OVER THE NERN PAC...WITH AN ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED 140+
KT JET ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE NEAR HAIDA GWAII...AND THEN
DIVING SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE LOWER 48. N OF THE
JET...A WEAK 1003 MB SURFACE LOW RESIDES IMMEDIATELY OFFSHORE FROM
SITKA...AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES ONSHORE BY
MIDDAY.

PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUFFICIENTLY TIGHT FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF
GUSTY WINDS IN KETCHIKAN THROUGH 15Z MON. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD
OF SLY GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CLARENCE STRAIT DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN GOING INTO
THE AFTERNOON...WITH DIRECTIONS OCCASIONALLY BECOMING VARIABLE
OVER THE NRN INNER CHANNELS AS THE REGION TRANSITIONS BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. ELSEWHERE...LONG PERIOD SWELLS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 8-11 FEET WILL PERSIST OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

PLUME OF STRONG ASCENT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE SRN
PANHANDLE...AND SUPPORTED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EARLIER IN THE
MORNING. THIS RAIN WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY...WITH THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE GOING BACK TO A SHOWER REGIME BY
TONIGHT DUE TO THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF ONSHORE MIDLEVEL FLOW AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES. SHOWERS MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE NUMEROUS
TONIGHT...AS A MODEST INCREASE IN ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH...THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE E ACROSS THE NRN GULF.

.LONG TERM...AS A SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA
TUESDAY A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ALONG WITH IT. BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE, WINDS WILL BEGIN BACKING OFFSHORE WHICH WILL SLOWLY
ERODE THE SHOWERS FROM THE MIDLEVELS DOWNWARD. THE RESULTANT
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DRAIN COLDER AIR FROM THE ALASKA INTERIOR
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE JUST AS THE LAST FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING. THUS ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO ANGOON. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT
AND UNIMPACTFUL.

CLEARING WILL SPREAD FROM THE NORTHWEST MAXIMIZING RADIATIONAL
COOLING THROUGH MIDWEEK. THUS PATCHY FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE MORNING OR PERHAPS LONGER ON
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL COOL WELL INTO THE
20S FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND TO NEAR FREEZING FOR MUCH OF
THE REST. BEYOND WEDNESDAY A TIGHTENING GRADIENT SHOULD IMPEDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT/PERSISTENCE.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE A RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BUILD
NORTHWARD AND SHARPEN IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING COMPLEX LOW
SETTLING IN THE BERING SEA. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE FLOW
WILL INCREASE ITS NORTHERLY COMPONENT AND WILL USHER MUCH COLDER
AIR INTO THE YUKON. THE COLD AIR WILL STRENGTHEN HIGH PRESSURE ON
THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE COAST MOUNTAINS AND INCREASE THE CROSS-
BARRIER GRADIENT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ALL THE
WAY TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COAST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
TEENS LIKELY FOR AREAS OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AWAY FROM WATER.
GRADIENTS OF 6 TO 7 MB BETWEEN SKAGWAY AND JUNEAU WILL DRIVE OUTFLOW
WINDS TO GALE FORCE THROUGH LYNN CANAL AND SIMILAR GRADIENTS
SPANNING STEPHENS PASSAGE WILL PUSH IT TO SOLID SMALL CRAFT. NOT
LOST IN THIS PATTERN CHANGE IS A DRY SHORT-WAVE DROPPING SOUTH OVER
THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY THAT
WILL POTENTIALLY SEED A MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT OVER DOWNTOWN JUNEAU.

THE RIDGE AXIS MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND, ONCE AGAIN EXPOSING SOUTHEAST ALASKA PERHAPS TO A LITTLE
MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW REGIME. THUS CLOUDS RETURN AND WE CANNOT
RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...PROBABLY
MIXED WITH SNOW AS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT HAVE MODERATED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOOD GOING INTO THANKSGIVING, BUT DROPPING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS TO HOW/WHEN THE RIDGE INEVITABLY BREAKS DOWN.
NAM/ECMWF USED FOR UPDATES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NUDGE
TO ECMWF THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. REST OF FORECAST ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 AM AKST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-041-042-052-053.

&&

$$

GARNER/ADKINS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU











    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities