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000
FXAK67 PAJK 312327
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
327 PM AKDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS A WEAKENING
LOW...ABOUT 1001 MB...OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH A TROUGH
STRETCHING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR HAIDA GWAII AND
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
OVER THE OPEN OCEAN. BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE LOW...SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW 10 TO 15 MPH PREVAIL OVER THE PANHANDLE WITH SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN LYNN CANAL. ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS PREVAIL WITH
ROUGH SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS 8 TO 12 FEET DUE TO LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWEST SWELLS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE WEAKENING LOW IN THE
EASTERN GULF THIS EVENING DISSIPATES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND PUSH THE RIDGE A LITTLE
TO THE EAST. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE GFS AND NAM
FOR THEIR GOOD CONSENSUS.

AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD...THE SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SOUTHERLY
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. EXPECT NO SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...BUT THE ROUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO
SWELLS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
ON AND OFF BASES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. DUE TO ONGOING RAIN
SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER...EXPECT SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
FLUCTUATIONS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
AND WEDNESDAY HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...AFTER A DAY OF RELATIVE AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE
IN YESTERDAY`S AM PACKAGE...WE RETURN TO GENERAL MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AFTER 4-5 DAYS IN TODAY`S PACKAGE. MODERATE FRONT
APPROACHING THE COASTLINE AT 03Z THURS IS BEING PUSHED BY UPPER
CLOSED LOW BARGING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WITH 1000 MB LOW SURFACE
REFLECTION. THE SURFACE LOW...A TWEAK FASTER ON THE NEW MODEL
UPDATES...SLOWS RAPIDLY AFTER ABOUT 09Z AND THEN TAKES A TURN TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE ON THU. FRONT`S
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A MODERATE EAST-WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SCA-
LEVEL SE WINDS OVER MOSTLY THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS DURING THE
DAY ON FRI WHILE MUCH OF THE ADJACENT OUTER WATERS WILL HAVE WINDS
IN VICINITY OF 30KT SUSTAINED FOR A PERIOD EARLY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE WEAKENING TAKES OVER. THIS INCLUDES A BRIEF BARRIER JET
ENHANCEMENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN MARINE AREA. INLAND/COASTAL WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE SUB- STRONG WIND LEVEL THROUGH THE EVENT. MEANWHILE ON
THU MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE WHILE LIGHTER PRECIP WILL COVER MUCH OF THE NORTH. WITH
THE NAM AMOUNTS APPEARING TO BE OVERDONE STILL HAVE TOTAL VALUES
WELL OVER AN INCH TO 2 INCHES OVER FAVORABLE AREAS OF THE SOUTH.
EC/NAM COMBO UTILIZED FOR MUCH OF THESE EARLY UPDATES THOUGH MODEL
DIFFERENCES WERE MINOR. THESE INCLUDED BUMPING HI TEMPS UPWARDS ON
THU BY A COUPLE DEGREES F. THE LOW IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON FRI AND SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY TO LINGER OVER MOSTLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE PERSISTENT
RETENTION OF ENERGY TO THE SOUTH ADVERTISED BY THE GFS VERIFIES.

SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE POTENTIALLY MOSTLY DRY FOR ALL BUT SOUTHERN
AREAS ON THE CURRENT GUIDANCE AS UPPER RIDGING GENERALLY TAKES
OVER THE GULF...HOWEVER THIS IS WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE  SIGNIFICANTLY. THE EC BRINGS A MODERATE WAVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE WITHIN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT SUN/SUN PM...ALTHOUGH WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE GEM
SOLUTION IS FOR A TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF
WITH A STRONGER WAVE. YET ANOTHER SOLUTION IS THE GFS...WHICH
SHOWS A WEAKENING WAVE AND FRONT MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE FROM
THE WNW BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG TROUGHING BUILDS INTO THE
ALEUTIANS. THE LATTER IS THE ONE COMMON GENERAL THREAD AMONGST ALL
OF THE GUIDANCE... THE TIMING IS MODEL DEPENDENT BUT GENERALLY
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. AN ENTRENCHED TROUGH SEEMS LIKELY BY
MON PM/TUES. ANYWAYS, THE DETAILS OF THE LATE WEEKEND/MONDAY WAVE
ARE THUS STILL UP IN THE AIR. GIVEN THE MODEL TEMPS PREDICTED FOR
LATE WEEKEND...SNOW IS STILL A THREAT OVER THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE
PANHANDLE OR SO ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL OF AN INTERIOR AIR SOURCE
SEEMS TO BE WANING AT THIS POINT. THUS ANY SNOW THAT DOES OCCUR
WOULD LIKELY BE BRIEF, ESPECIALLY WITH THE CONTINUING LACK OF SNOW
COVER INLAND BELOW A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET IN ELEVATION. WENT WITH
WPC GRIDS FROM DAY 5 ONWARDS WITH THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
PRESENT. THESE GRIDS WERE BASED ON A NAEFS/GEM COMBO WITH NO INPUT
FROM THE EC UPDATES.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043.

&&

$$

AHN/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU















000
FXAK67 PAJK 312327
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
327 PM AKDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS A WEAKENING
LOW...ABOUT 1001 MB...OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH A TROUGH
STRETCHING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR HAIDA GWAII AND
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
OVER THE OPEN OCEAN. BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE LOW...SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW 10 TO 15 MPH PREVAIL OVER THE PANHANDLE WITH SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN LYNN CANAL. ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS PREVAIL WITH
ROUGH SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS 8 TO 12 FEET DUE TO LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWEST SWELLS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE WEAKENING LOW IN THE
EASTERN GULF THIS EVENING DISSIPATES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND PUSH THE RIDGE A LITTLE
TO THE EAST. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE GFS AND NAM
FOR THEIR GOOD CONSENSUS.

AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD...THE SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SOUTHERLY
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. EXPECT NO SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...BUT THE ROUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO
SWELLS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
ON AND OFF BASES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. DUE TO ONGOING RAIN
SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER...EXPECT SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
FLUCTUATIONS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
AND WEDNESDAY HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...AFTER A DAY OF RELATIVE AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE
IN YESTERDAY`S AM PACKAGE...WE RETURN TO GENERAL MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AFTER 4-5 DAYS IN TODAY`S PACKAGE. MODERATE FRONT
APPROACHING THE COASTLINE AT 03Z THURS IS BEING PUSHED BY UPPER
CLOSED LOW BARGING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WITH 1000 MB LOW SURFACE
REFLECTION. THE SURFACE LOW...A TWEAK FASTER ON THE NEW MODEL
UPDATES...SLOWS RAPIDLY AFTER ABOUT 09Z AND THEN TAKES A TURN TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE ON THU. FRONT`S
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A MODERATE EAST-WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SCA-
LEVEL SE WINDS OVER MOSTLY THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS DURING THE
DAY ON FRI WHILE MUCH OF THE ADJACENT OUTER WATERS WILL HAVE WINDS
IN VICINITY OF 30KT SUSTAINED FOR A PERIOD EARLY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE WEAKENING TAKES OVER. THIS INCLUDES A BRIEF BARRIER JET
ENHANCEMENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN MARINE AREA. INLAND/COASTAL WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE SUB- STRONG WIND LEVEL THROUGH THE EVENT. MEANWHILE ON
THU MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE WHILE LIGHTER PRECIP WILL COVER MUCH OF THE NORTH. WITH
THE NAM AMOUNTS APPEARING TO BE OVERDONE STILL HAVE TOTAL VALUES
WELL OVER AN INCH TO 2 INCHES OVER FAVORABLE AREAS OF THE SOUTH.
EC/NAM COMBO UTILIZED FOR MUCH OF THESE EARLY UPDATES THOUGH MODEL
DIFFERENCES WERE MINOR. THESE INCLUDED BUMPING HI TEMPS UPWARDS ON
THU BY A COUPLE DEGREES F. THE LOW IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON FRI AND SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY TO LINGER OVER MOSTLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE PERSISTENT
RETENTION OF ENERGY TO THE SOUTH ADVERTISED BY THE GFS VERIFIES.

SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE POTENTIALLY MOSTLY DRY FOR ALL BUT SOUTHERN
AREAS ON THE CURRENT GUIDANCE AS UPPER RIDGING GENERALLY TAKES
OVER THE GULF...HOWEVER THIS IS WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE  SIGNIFICANTLY. THE EC BRINGS A MODERATE WAVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE WITHIN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT SUN/SUN PM...ALTHOUGH WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE GEM
SOLUTION IS FOR A TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF
WITH A STRONGER WAVE. YET ANOTHER SOLUTION IS THE GFS...WHICH
SHOWS A WEAKENING WAVE AND FRONT MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE FROM
THE WNW BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG TROUGHING BUILDS INTO THE
ALEUTIANS. THE LATTER IS THE ONE COMMON GENERAL THREAD AMONGST ALL
OF THE GUIDANCE... THE TIMING IS MODEL DEPENDENT BUT GENERALLY
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. AN ENTRENCHED TROUGH SEEMS LIKELY BY
MON PM/TUES. ANYWAYS, THE DETAILS OF THE LATE WEEKEND/MONDAY WAVE
ARE THUS STILL UP IN THE AIR. GIVEN THE MODEL TEMPS PREDICTED FOR
LATE WEEKEND...SNOW IS STILL A THREAT OVER THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE
PANHANDLE OR SO ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL OF AN INTERIOR AIR SOURCE
SEEMS TO BE WANING AT THIS POINT. THUS ANY SNOW THAT DOES OCCUR
WOULD LIKELY BE BRIEF, ESPECIALLY WITH THE CONTINUING LACK OF SNOW
COVER INLAND BELOW A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET IN ELEVATION. WENT WITH
WPC GRIDS FROM DAY 5 ONWARDS WITH THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
PRESENT. THESE GRIDS WERE BASED ON A NAEFS/GEM COMBO WITH NO INPUT
FROM THE EC UPDATES.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043.

&&

$$

AHN/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU














000
FXAK67 PAJK 312327
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
327 PM AKDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS A WEAKENING
LOW...ABOUT 1001 MB...OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH A TROUGH
STRETCHING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR HAIDA GWAII AND
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
OVER THE OPEN OCEAN. BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE LOW...SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW 10 TO 15 MPH PREVAIL OVER THE PANHANDLE WITH SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN LYNN CANAL. ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS PREVAIL WITH
ROUGH SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS 8 TO 12 FEET DUE TO LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWEST SWELLS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE WEAKENING LOW IN THE
EASTERN GULF THIS EVENING DISSIPATES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND PUSH THE RIDGE A LITTLE
TO THE EAST. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE GFS AND NAM
FOR THEIR GOOD CONSENSUS.

AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD...THE SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SOUTHERLY
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. EXPECT NO SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...BUT THE ROUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO
SWELLS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
ON AND OFF BASES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. DUE TO ONGOING RAIN
SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER...EXPECT SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
FLUCTUATIONS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
AND WEDNESDAY HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...AFTER A DAY OF RELATIVE AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE
IN YESTERDAY`S AM PACKAGE...WE RETURN TO GENERAL MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AFTER 4-5 DAYS IN TODAY`S PACKAGE. MODERATE FRONT
APPROACHING THE COASTLINE AT 03Z THURS IS BEING PUSHED BY UPPER
CLOSED LOW BARGING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WITH 1000 MB LOW SURFACE
REFLECTION. THE SURFACE LOW...A TWEAK FASTER ON THE NEW MODEL
UPDATES...SLOWS RAPIDLY AFTER ABOUT 09Z AND THEN TAKES A TURN TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE ON THU. FRONT`S
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A MODERATE EAST-WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SCA-
LEVEL SE WINDS OVER MOSTLY THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS DURING THE
DAY ON FRI WHILE MUCH OF THE ADJACENT OUTER WATERS WILL HAVE WINDS
IN VICINITY OF 30KT SUSTAINED FOR A PERIOD EARLY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE WEAKENING TAKES OVER. THIS INCLUDES A BRIEF BARRIER JET
ENHANCEMENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN MARINE AREA. INLAND/COASTAL WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE SUB- STRONG WIND LEVEL THROUGH THE EVENT. MEANWHILE ON
THU MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE WHILE LIGHTER PRECIP WILL COVER MUCH OF THE NORTH. WITH
THE NAM AMOUNTS APPEARING TO BE OVERDONE STILL HAVE TOTAL VALUES
WELL OVER AN INCH TO 2 INCHES OVER FAVORABLE AREAS OF THE SOUTH.
EC/NAM COMBO UTILIZED FOR MUCH OF THESE EARLY UPDATES THOUGH MODEL
DIFFERENCES WERE MINOR. THESE INCLUDED BUMPING HI TEMPS UPWARDS ON
THU BY A COUPLE DEGREES F. THE LOW IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON FRI AND SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY TO LINGER OVER MOSTLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE PERSISTENT
RETENTION OF ENERGY TO THE SOUTH ADVERTISED BY THE GFS VERIFIES.

SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE POTENTIALLY MOSTLY DRY FOR ALL BUT SOUTHERN
AREAS ON THE CURRENT GUIDANCE AS UPPER RIDGING GENERALLY TAKES
OVER THE GULF...HOWEVER THIS IS WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE  SIGNIFICANTLY. THE EC BRINGS A MODERATE WAVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE WITHIN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT SUN/SUN PM...ALTHOUGH WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE GEM
SOLUTION IS FOR A TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF
WITH A STRONGER WAVE. YET ANOTHER SOLUTION IS THE GFS...WHICH
SHOWS A WEAKENING WAVE AND FRONT MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE FROM
THE WNW BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG TROUGHING BUILDS INTO THE
ALEUTIANS. THE LATTER IS THE ONE COMMON GENERAL THREAD AMONGST ALL
OF THE GUIDANCE... THE TIMING IS MODEL DEPENDENT BUT GENERALLY
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. AN ENTRENCHED TROUGH SEEMS LIKELY BY
MON PM/TUES. ANYWAYS, THE DETAILS OF THE LATE WEEKEND/MONDAY WAVE
ARE THUS STILL UP IN THE AIR. GIVEN THE MODEL TEMPS PREDICTED FOR
LATE WEEKEND...SNOW IS STILL A THREAT OVER THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE
PANHANDLE OR SO ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL OF AN INTERIOR AIR SOURCE
SEEMS TO BE WANING AT THIS POINT. THUS ANY SNOW THAT DOES OCCUR
WOULD LIKELY BE BRIEF, ESPECIALLY WITH THE CONTINUING LACK OF SNOW
COVER INLAND BELOW A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET IN ELEVATION. WENT WITH
WPC GRIDS FROM DAY 5 ONWARDS WITH THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
PRESENT. THESE GRIDS WERE BASED ON A NAEFS/GEM COMBO WITH NO INPUT
FROM THE EC UPDATES.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043.

&&

$$

AHN/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU















000
FXAK67 PAJK 312327
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
327 PM AKDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS A WEAKENING
LOW...ABOUT 1001 MB...OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH A TROUGH
STRETCHING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR HAIDA GWAII AND
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
OVER THE OPEN OCEAN. BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE LOW...SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW 10 TO 15 MPH PREVAIL OVER THE PANHANDLE WITH SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN LYNN CANAL. ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS PREVAIL WITH
ROUGH SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS 8 TO 12 FEET DUE TO LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWEST SWELLS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE WEAKENING LOW IN THE
EASTERN GULF THIS EVENING DISSIPATES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND PUSH THE RIDGE A LITTLE
TO THE EAST. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE GFS AND NAM
FOR THEIR GOOD CONSENSUS.

AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD...THE SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SOUTHERLY
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. EXPECT NO SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...BUT THE ROUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO
SWELLS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
ON AND OFF BASES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. DUE TO ONGOING RAIN
SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER...EXPECT SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
FLUCTUATIONS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
AND WEDNESDAY HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...AFTER A DAY OF RELATIVE AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE
IN YESTERDAY`S AM PACKAGE...WE RETURN TO GENERAL MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AFTER 4-5 DAYS IN TODAY`S PACKAGE. MODERATE FRONT
APPROACHING THE COASTLINE AT 03Z THURS IS BEING PUSHED BY UPPER
CLOSED LOW BARGING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WITH 1000 MB LOW SURFACE
REFLECTION. THE SURFACE LOW...A TWEAK FASTER ON THE NEW MODEL
UPDATES...SLOWS RAPIDLY AFTER ABOUT 09Z AND THEN TAKES A TURN TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE ON THU. FRONT`S
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A MODERATE EAST-WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SCA-
LEVEL SE WINDS OVER MOSTLY THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS DURING THE
DAY ON FRI WHILE MUCH OF THE ADJACENT OUTER WATERS WILL HAVE WINDS
IN VICINITY OF 30KT SUSTAINED FOR A PERIOD EARLY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE WEAKENING TAKES OVER. THIS INCLUDES A BRIEF BARRIER JET
ENHANCEMENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN MARINE AREA. INLAND/COASTAL WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE SUB- STRONG WIND LEVEL THROUGH THE EVENT. MEANWHILE ON
THU MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE WHILE LIGHTER PRECIP WILL COVER MUCH OF THE NORTH. WITH
THE NAM AMOUNTS APPEARING TO BE OVERDONE STILL HAVE TOTAL VALUES
WELL OVER AN INCH TO 2 INCHES OVER FAVORABLE AREAS OF THE SOUTH.
EC/NAM COMBO UTILIZED FOR MUCH OF THESE EARLY UPDATES THOUGH MODEL
DIFFERENCES WERE MINOR. THESE INCLUDED BUMPING HI TEMPS UPWARDS ON
THU BY A COUPLE DEGREES F. THE LOW IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON FRI AND SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY TO LINGER OVER MOSTLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE PERSISTENT
RETENTION OF ENERGY TO THE SOUTH ADVERTISED BY THE GFS VERIFIES.

SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE POTENTIALLY MOSTLY DRY FOR ALL BUT SOUTHERN
AREAS ON THE CURRENT GUIDANCE AS UPPER RIDGING GENERALLY TAKES
OVER THE GULF...HOWEVER THIS IS WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE  SIGNIFICANTLY. THE EC BRINGS A MODERATE WAVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE WITHIN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT SUN/SUN PM...ALTHOUGH WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE GEM
SOLUTION IS FOR A TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF
WITH A STRONGER WAVE. YET ANOTHER SOLUTION IS THE GFS...WHICH
SHOWS A WEAKENING WAVE AND FRONT MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE FROM
THE WNW BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG TROUGHING BUILDS INTO THE
ALEUTIANS. THE LATTER IS THE ONE COMMON GENERAL THREAD AMONGST ALL
OF THE GUIDANCE... THE TIMING IS MODEL DEPENDENT BUT GENERALLY
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. AN ENTRENCHED TROUGH SEEMS LIKELY BY
MON PM/TUES. ANYWAYS, THE DETAILS OF THE LATE WEEKEND/MONDAY WAVE
ARE THUS STILL UP IN THE AIR. GIVEN THE MODEL TEMPS PREDICTED FOR
LATE WEEKEND...SNOW IS STILL A THREAT OVER THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE
PANHANDLE OR SO ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL OF AN INTERIOR AIR SOURCE
SEEMS TO BE WANING AT THIS POINT. THUS ANY SNOW THAT DOES OCCUR
WOULD LIKELY BE BRIEF, ESPECIALLY WITH THE CONTINUING LACK OF SNOW
COVER INLAND BELOW A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET IN ELEVATION. WENT WITH
WPC GRIDS FROM DAY 5 ONWARDS WITH THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
PRESENT. THESE GRIDS WERE BASED ON A NAEFS/GEM COMBO WITH NO INPUT
FROM THE EC UPDATES.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043.

&&

$$

AHN/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU














000
FXAK67 PAJK 311353
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
553 AM AKDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...AT 09Z TUE MORNING...WV IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LOW
POSITIONED OVER THE SCNTRL GULF. UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED
DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE OVER NWRN CANADA...WHILE A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING N OVER THE PANHANDLE. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF WILL MOVE E TOWARD THE COAST OF
SERN AK BY 12Z WED...WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN POSITION NOTED
AMONGST SUITE OF SOLUTIONS DUE TO VARIATIONS IN HOW THE LOW
PHASES WITH A VORTICITY STREAMER APPROACHING IT FROM THE W. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE ERN GULF BY
AFTERNOON...WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NNW OVER THE
SRN/CNTRL PANHANDLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER LYNN CANAL AND CAUSE SLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN TO
SMALL CRAFT. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
OUTSIDE WATERS...AND WSWLY WINDS TO 30 KT WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
OVER MARINE ZONE 41 ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE GULF LOW.

OTHERWISE...STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NRN
PANHANDLE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WHILE BANDS OF SHOWERS SPREAD
INLAND AHEAD OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO
OCCUR OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. SUFFICIENT CAPE WILL
EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SRN OUTSIDE WATERS INTO THE SRN
PANHANDLE TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS HAS APPARENTLY BEEN CONFIRMED BY AN
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE LOCATED NEAR ANNETTE AT 1230Z.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE
MARGINAL DUE TO WEAKENING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW...AND COLD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE PROFILES /LCL
TEMPERATURE AOB 3C...WARM CLOUD DEPTH LESS THAN 500 METERS/.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHORT TERM TRENDS AND UPDATE THE
FORECAST FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IF CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL
OCCURRENCE INCREASES.

NO CHANGE WAS MADE TO PRESSURE GRIDS. POP AND QPF WERE UPDATED
USING A COMBINATION OF GFS/ECMWF/ARW/NMM.

.LONG TERM...THE PHASING OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE VORTICITY
STREAMER DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL BE COMPLETE WEDNESDAY MORNING
EXTENDING SHOWERS FOR SOUTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BEGIN TO LIGHTEN AS THE DAY WEARS ON, IN PART, DUE TO
MORE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE BUILDING WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF. POPS WILL BE HIGHER INLAND AS THE INSTABILITY IS
ACCENTUATED BY THE ACCENT OVER THE COAST MOUNTAINS.

ALL EYES WILL THEN FOCUS ON THE STORM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR THIS
MORNING. THIS STORM SWINGS A FRONT ACROSS THE GULF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE PANHANDLE
THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 30 KT WINDS AND STEADY RAINS MOVING
NORTHEAST, EVENTUALLY INTO THE PANHANDLE. NEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF
LEFT THE PACK OF MODELS BY ADVANCING IT FASTER. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY ON SPEED, KEPT THE FORECAST AS IS, BUT WE MUST
COMMUNICATE SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE. THE INHERITED PRECIPITATION
FIELD WAS BLENDED WITH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECWMF TO ADVANCE IT
FARTHER EAST A LITTLE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ALL MODELS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NAM SHOWING PRECIPITATION OVER EVEN THE THE
INTERIOR PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON THIS WITH THE
ORIENTATION OF THE ADVANCING FRONT, AND TRIED TO COUNTER THIS
INCORPORATING A LITTLE OF THE NAM. HOWEVER, THE 700 MB FLOW STILL
CARRYING MORE ONSHORE COMPONENT, AND THUS WITH GRADUAL UPGLIDE,
FELT WE HAD TO LEAVE IT IN. THE GFS SUGGESTING RAIN BANDS MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES ON BARANOF ISLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS THURSDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN
TURN TO SMALL CRAFT FROM THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BUT PARALLEL GRADIENTS
SHOULD KEEP THE FAR NORTHERN PASSAGES RELATIVELY LIGHT FROM THE
NORTH.

THE LOW BEGINS TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO FRIDAY, THUS DRYING
OUT THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. RESIDUAL INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST OVER
THE SOUTH ENOUGH TO EXTEND SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND.
SOME COLDER AIR WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE IN NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO REINTRODUCE SOME SNOW
MIXING IN WITH THE DISSIPATING SHOWERS ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION FIELD. THE ECMWF IS SUGGESTING A HEALTHY SHORT-
WAVE RIDING EASTWARD FROM THE BERING SEA INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
LATE INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW MIXED
WITH THE RAIN FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS NOT AS
KEEN. THUS WAS CAREFUL TO BOTH RAISE POPS AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES
JUST A TAD. STILL LEFT THE CHANCE OF SNOW WITH RAIN FOR JUNEAU AND
POINTS NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

GFS AND ECMWF USED TO UPDATE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE FOR PERIOD.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ042-043-052.

&&

$$

GARNER/ADKINS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU










000
FXAK67 PAJK 311353
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
553 AM AKDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...AT 09Z TUE MORNING...WV IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LOW
POSITIONED OVER THE SCNTRL GULF. UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED
DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE OVER NWRN CANADA...WHILE A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING N OVER THE PANHANDLE. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF WILL MOVE E TOWARD THE COAST OF
SERN AK BY 12Z WED...WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN POSITION NOTED
AMONGST SUITE OF SOLUTIONS DUE TO VARIATIONS IN HOW THE LOW
PHASES WITH A VORTICITY STREAMER APPROACHING IT FROM THE W. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE ERN GULF BY
AFTERNOON...WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NNW OVER THE
SRN/CNTRL PANHANDLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER LYNN CANAL AND CAUSE SLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN TO
SMALL CRAFT. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
OUTSIDE WATERS...AND WSWLY WINDS TO 30 KT WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
OVER MARINE ZONE 41 ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE GULF LOW.

OTHERWISE...STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NRN
PANHANDLE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WHILE BANDS OF SHOWERS SPREAD
INLAND AHEAD OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO
OCCUR OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. SUFFICIENT CAPE WILL
EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SRN OUTSIDE WATERS INTO THE SRN
PANHANDLE TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS HAS APPARENTLY BEEN CONFIRMED BY AN
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE LOCATED NEAR ANNETTE AT 1230Z.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE
MARGINAL DUE TO WEAKENING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW...AND COLD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE PROFILES /LCL
TEMPERATURE AOB 3C...WARM CLOUD DEPTH LESS THAN 500 METERS/.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHORT TERM TRENDS AND UPDATE THE
FORECAST FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IF CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL
OCCURRENCE INCREASES.

NO CHANGE WAS MADE TO PRESSURE GRIDS. POP AND QPF WERE UPDATED
USING A COMBINATION OF GFS/ECMWF/ARW/NMM.

.LONG TERM...THE PHASING OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE VORTICITY
STREAMER DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL BE COMPLETE WEDNESDAY MORNING
EXTENDING SHOWERS FOR SOUTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BEGIN TO LIGHTEN AS THE DAY WEARS ON, IN PART, DUE TO
MORE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE BUILDING WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF. POPS WILL BE HIGHER INLAND AS THE INSTABILITY IS
ACCENTUATED BY THE ACCENT OVER THE COAST MOUNTAINS.

ALL EYES WILL THEN FOCUS ON THE STORM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR THIS
MORNING. THIS STORM SWINGS A FRONT ACROSS THE GULF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE PANHANDLE
THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 30 KT WINDS AND STEADY RAINS MOVING
NORTHEAST, EVENTUALLY INTO THE PANHANDLE. NEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF
LEFT THE PACK OF MODELS BY ADVANCING IT FASTER. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY ON SPEED, KEPT THE FORECAST AS IS, BUT WE MUST
COMMUNICATE SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE. THE INHERITED PRECIPITATION
FIELD WAS BLENDED WITH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECWMF TO ADVANCE IT
FARTHER EAST A LITTLE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ALL MODELS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NAM SHOWING PRECIPITATION OVER EVEN THE THE
INTERIOR PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON THIS WITH THE
ORIENTATION OF THE ADVANCING FRONT, AND TRIED TO COUNTER THIS
INCORPORATING A LITTLE OF THE NAM. HOWEVER, THE 700 MB FLOW STILL
CARRYING MORE ONSHORE COMPONENT, AND THUS WITH GRADUAL UPGLIDE,
FELT WE HAD TO LEAVE IT IN. THE GFS SUGGESTING RAIN BANDS MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES ON BARANOF ISLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS THURSDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN
TURN TO SMALL CRAFT FROM THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BUT PARALLEL GRADIENTS
SHOULD KEEP THE FAR NORTHERN PASSAGES RELATIVELY LIGHT FROM THE
NORTH.

THE LOW BEGINS TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO FRIDAY, THUS DRYING
OUT THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. RESIDUAL INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST OVER
THE SOUTH ENOUGH TO EXTEND SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND.
SOME COLDER AIR WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE IN NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO REINTRODUCE SOME SNOW
MIXING IN WITH THE DISSIPATING SHOWERS ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION FIELD. THE ECMWF IS SUGGESTING A HEALTHY SHORT-
WAVE RIDING EASTWARD FROM THE BERING SEA INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
LATE INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW MIXED
WITH THE RAIN FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS NOT AS
KEEN. THUS WAS CAREFUL TO BOTH RAISE POPS AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES
JUST A TAD. STILL LEFT THE CHANCE OF SNOW WITH RAIN FOR JUNEAU AND
POINTS NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

GFS AND ECMWF USED TO UPDATE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE FOR PERIOD.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ042-043-052.

&&

$$

GARNER/ADKINS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU











000
FXAK67 PAJK 311353
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
553 AM AKDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...AT 09Z TUE MORNING...WV IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LOW
POSITIONED OVER THE SCNTRL GULF. UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED
DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE OVER NWRN CANADA...WHILE A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING N OVER THE PANHANDLE. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF WILL MOVE E TOWARD THE COAST OF
SERN AK BY 12Z WED...WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN POSITION NOTED
AMONGST SUITE OF SOLUTIONS DUE TO VARIATIONS IN HOW THE LOW
PHASES WITH A VORTICITY STREAMER APPROACHING IT FROM THE W. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE ERN GULF BY
AFTERNOON...WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NNW OVER THE
SRN/CNTRL PANHANDLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER LYNN CANAL AND CAUSE SLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN TO
SMALL CRAFT. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
OUTSIDE WATERS...AND WSWLY WINDS TO 30 KT WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
OVER MARINE ZONE 41 ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE GULF LOW.

OTHERWISE...STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NRN
PANHANDLE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WHILE BANDS OF SHOWERS SPREAD
INLAND AHEAD OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO
OCCUR OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. SUFFICIENT CAPE WILL
EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SRN OUTSIDE WATERS INTO THE SRN
PANHANDLE TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS HAS APPARENTLY BEEN CONFIRMED BY AN
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE LOCATED NEAR ANNETTE AT 1230Z.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE
MARGINAL DUE TO WEAKENING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW...AND COLD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE PROFILES /LCL
TEMPERATURE AOB 3C...WARM CLOUD DEPTH LESS THAN 500 METERS/.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHORT TERM TRENDS AND UPDATE THE
FORECAST FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IF CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL
OCCURRENCE INCREASES.

NO CHANGE WAS MADE TO PRESSURE GRIDS. POP AND QPF WERE UPDATED
USING A COMBINATION OF GFS/ECMWF/ARW/NMM.

.LONG TERM...THE PHASING OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE VORTICITY
STREAMER DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL BE COMPLETE WEDNESDAY MORNING
EXTENDING SHOWERS FOR SOUTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BEGIN TO LIGHTEN AS THE DAY WEARS ON, IN PART, DUE TO
MORE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE BUILDING WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF. POPS WILL BE HIGHER INLAND AS THE INSTABILITY IS
ACCENTUATED BY THE ACCENT OVER THE COAST MOUNTAINS.

ALL EYES WILL THEN FOCUS ON THE STORM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR THIS
MORNING. THIS STORM SWINGS A FRONT ACROSS THE GULF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE PANHANDLE
THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 30 KT WINDS AND STEADY RAINS MOVING
NORTHEAST, EVENTUALLY INTO THE PANHANDLE. NEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF
LEFT THE PACK OF MODELS BY ADVANCING IT FASTER. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY ON SPEED, KEPT THE FORECAST AS IS, BUT WE MUST
COMMUNICATE SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE. THE INHERITED PRECIPITATION
FIELD WAS BLENDED WITH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECWMF TO ADVANCE IT
FARTHER EAST A LITTLE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ALL MODELS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NAM SHOWING PRECIPITATION OVER EVEN THE THE
INTERIOR PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON THIS WITH THE
ORIENTATION OF THE ADVANCING FRONT, AND TRIED TO COUNTER THIS
INCORPORATING A LITTLE OF THE NAM. HOWEVER, THE 700 MB FLOW STILL
CARRYING MORE ONSHORE COMPONENT, AND THUS WITH GRADUAL UPGLIDE,
FELT WE HAD TO LEAVE IT IN. THE GFS SUGGESTING RAIN BANDS MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES ON BARANOF ISLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS THURSDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN
TURN TO SMALL CRAFT FROM THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BUT PARALLEL GRADIENTS
SHOULD KEEP THE FAR NORTHERN PASSAGES RELATIVELY LIGHT FROM THE
NORTH.

THE LOW BEGINS TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO FRIDAY, THUS DRYING
OUT THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. RESIDUAL INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST OVER
THE SOUTH ENOUGH TO EXTEND SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND.
SOME COLDER AIR WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE IN NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO REINTRODUCE SOME SNOW
MIXING IN WITH THE DISSIPATING SHOWERS ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION FIELD. THE ECMWF IS SUGGESTING A HEALTHY SHORT-
WAVE RIDING EASTWARD FROM THE BERING SEA INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
LATE INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW MIXED
WITH THE RAIN FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS NOT AS
KEEN. THUS WAS CAREFUL TO BOTH RAISE POPS AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES
JUST A TAD. STILL LEFT THE CHANCE OF SNOW WITH RAIN FOR JUNEAU AND
POINTS NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

GFS AND ECMWF USED TO UPDATE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE FOR PERIOD.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ042-043-052.

&&

$$

GARNER/ADKINS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU










000
FXAK67 PAJK 311353
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
553 AM AKDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...AT 09Z TUE MORNING...WV IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LOW
POSITIONED OVER THE SCNTRL GULF. UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED
DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE OVER NWRN CANADA...WHILE A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING N OVER THE PANHANDLE. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF WILL MOVE E TOWARD THE COAST OF
SERN AK BY 12Z WED...WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN POSITION NOTED
AMONGST SUITE OF SOLUTIONS DUE TO VARIATIONS IN HOW THE LOW
PHASES WITH A VORTICITY STREAMER APPROACHING IT FROM THE W. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE ERN GULF BY
AFTERNOON...WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NNW OVER THE
SRN/CNTRL PANHANDLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER LYNN CANAL AND CAUSE SLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN TO
SMALL CRAFT. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
OUTSIDE WATERS...AND WSWLY WINDS TO 30 KT WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
OVER MARINE ZONE 41 ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE GULF LOW.

OTHERWISE...STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NRN
PANHANDLE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WHILE BANDS OF SHOWERS SPREAD
INLAND AHEAD OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO
OCCUR OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. SUFFICIENT CAPE WILL
EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SRN OUTSIDE WATERS INTO THE SRN
PANHANDLE TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS HAS APPARENTLY BEEN CONFIRMED BY AN
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE LOCATED NEAR ANNETTE AT 1230Z.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE
MARGINAL DUE TO WEAKENING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW...AND COLD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE PROFILES /LCL
TEMPERATURE AOB 3C...WARM CLOUD DEPTH LESS THAN 500 METERS/.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHORT TERM TRENDS AND UPDATE THE
FORECAST FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IF CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL
OCCURRENCE INCREASES.

NO CHANGE WAS MADE TO PRESSURE GRIDS. POP AND QPF WERE UPDATED
USING A COMBINATION OF GFS/ECMWF/ARW/NMM.

.LONG TERM...THE PHASING OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE VORTICITY
STREAMER DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL BE COMPLETE WEDNESDAY MORNING
EXTENDING SHOWERS FOR SOUTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BEGIN TO LIGHTEN AS THE DAY WEARS ON, IN PART, DUE TO
MORE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE BUILDING WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF. POPS WILL BE HIGHER INLAND AS THE INSTABILITY IS
ACCENTUATED BY THE ACCENT OVER THE COAST MOUNTAINS.

ALL EYES WILL THEN FOCUS ON THE STORM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR THIS
MORNING. THIS STORM SWINGS A FRONT ACROSS THE GULF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE PANHANDLE
THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 30 KT WINDS AND STEADY RAINS MOVING
NORTHEAST, EVENTUALLY INTO THE PANHANDLE. NEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF
LEFT THE PACK OF MODELS BY ADVANCING IT FASTER. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY ON SPEED, KEPT THE FORECAST AS IS, BUT WE MUST
COMMUNICATE SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE. THE INHERITED PRECIPITATION
FIELD WAS BLENDED WITH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECWMF TO ADVANCE IT
FARTHER EAST A LITTLE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ALL MODELS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NAM SHOWING PRECIPITATION OVER EVEN THE THE
INTERIOR PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON THIS WITH THE
ORIENTATION OF THE ADVANCING FRONT, AND TRIED TO COUNTER THIS
INCORPORATING A LITTLE OF THE NAM. HOWEVER, THE 700 MB FLOW STILL
CARRYING MORE ONSHORE COMPONENT, AND THUS WITH GRADUAL UPGLIDE,
FELT WE HAD TO LEAVE IT IN. THE GFS SUGGESTING RAIN BANDS MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES ON BARANOF ISLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS THURSDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN
TURN TO SMALL CRAFT FROM THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BUT PARALLEL GRADIENTS
SHOULD KEEP THE FAR NORTHERN PASSAGES RELATIVELY LIGHT FROM THE
NORTH.

THE LOW BEGINS TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO FRIDAY, THUS DRYING
OUT THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. RESIDUAL INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST OVER
THE SOUTH ENOUGH TO EXTEND SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND.
SOME COLDER AIR WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE IN NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO REINTRODUCE SOME SNOW
MIXING IN WITH THE DISSIPATING SHOWERS ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION FIELD. THE ECMWF IS SUGGESTING A HEALTHY SHORT-
WAVE RIDING EASTWARD FROM THE BERING SEA INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
LATE INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW MIXED
WITH THE RAIN FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS NOT AS
KEEN. THUS WAS CAREFUL TO BOTH RAISE POPS AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES
JUST A TAD. STILL LEFT THE CHANCE OF SNOW WITH RAIN FOR JUNEAU AND
POINTS NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

GFS AND ECMWF USED TO UPDATE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE FOR PERIOD.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ042-043-052.

&&

$$

GARNER/ADKINS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU











000
FXAK67 PAJK 302339
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
323 PM AKDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A 991 MB LOW NEAR
DIXON ENTRANCE MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH
STRONG WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES. CLOUDS OUT-SKIRTING FROM THE LOW CENTRAL SPREAD
NORTH. OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH A
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...BUT CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES SOAR UP TO THE MID 40S. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT...THEN CONSOLIDATES WITH A LOW IN THE
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. REFRESHED THE INHERITED
FORECAST WITH THE GFS AND NAM FOR THEIR GOOD CONSENSUS. SOLID SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND SOUTHERN
INNER CHANNELS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH...BUT ROUGH SEAS DUE TO
LONG PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST SWELLS WILL REMAIN OVER THE OUTSIDE
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. NOT MUCH DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATION
IS EXPECTED AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S WITH TUESDAY HIGHS BACK TO MID 40S.

AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH...STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WILL DECREASE BEHIND THE LOW...BUT BRIEFLY INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST TUESDAY AND
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL PRODUCE
WARM MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR FEEDING INTO DIXON ENTRANCE EAST.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED GRIDS A BIT DIFFICULT OBTAIN CONFIDENCE IN
INITIALLY DUE TO LACK OF EC DATA FROM LAST NIGHT...BUT FORTUITOUSLY
THAT RUN WAS AN OUTLIER PER HPC COORD. NEW RUN CAME MORE INLINE
WITH GEM AND GFS RUNS SO DESPITE THE SLOW START REASONABLE
CONFIDENCE FOR DAYS 4 ONWARD WAS ATTAINED. WEAK LOW OVER THE
EASTERN GULF ON TUES NIGHT WEAKENS FURTHER AND MOVES SLOWLY
INLAND...LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
PANHANDLE INTO WED AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
LOW PRESSURE TAKES OVER THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE WEST BY WED
MORNING AND GENERATES SCA-LEVEL WINDS OFFSHORE AND OVER ALL INNER
CHANNELS EXCEPT FOR LYNN CANAL AND GLACIER BAY BY WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING... AND INTO THURS FOR SOME CHANNELS AND OFFSHORE
ZONES. UTILIZED NAM/EC COMBO FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS
AGREEMENT WAS STRONG...WIND FIELD NEEDED TWEAKING OVER A FEW
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CHANNELS AS WELL AS OFFSHORE CONTINUING A BIT OF
AN UPWARD TREND. ALSO A SIGNIFICANT BARRIER JET IS PROGGED OVER THE
NORTHWEST PORTION AND GIVEN THE LONGEVITY OF THE LOW SEE NO REASON
NOT TO BELIEVE THIS. THE LOW STALLS OVER THE GULF ON GUIDANCE AND
EVENTUALLY WEAKENS ON THE MODELS BUT WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
INSTABILITY- DOMINATED AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS POTENTIALLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

AFTER THIS LOW MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THERE IS WEAK UPPER
RIDGING ON THE MODELS OVER THE GULF BUT THE PANHANDLE REMAINS IN
ENOUGH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...MOIST ON THE GEM, EC AND GFS
GUIDANCE UPDATES...THAT PRECIP ALONG WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ON
TAP FOR THIS WEEKEND. EVEN COOL ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
AT SEA LEVEL OVER THE NORTHERN FRINGE AND THE STRONGER EC IS
POINTING TOWARDS EVEN JUNEAU FOR THE LATE WEEKEND. BRIEF PERIOD OF
STRATIFORM PRECIP IS POSSIBLE FOR LATE SUNDAY OVER AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ON UPCOMING
MODEL UPDATES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SNOW. AFTER THIS
PERIOD..MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES TO SOME DEGREE BUT APPEARS THAT
THERE IS A BETTER-THAN-EVEN CHANCE THAT TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE ALEUTIANS AND FRONTS WILL CONTINUE TO ENTER THE
GULF IN THE MON-WED PERIOD. WITH THE GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE 3
MAJOR MODELS WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DO
NOT LIKE THE WAY THE POP FIELDS ARE SMEARED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
CANNOT REASONABLY RULE OUT ANY PERIOD FOR PRECIP CHANCES SO NO
CHOICE BUT TO GO WITH THE ENSEMBLE AT THIS POINT. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD BE A WARM MOIST ONE FOR ALL OF THE PANHANDLE UNLIKE WHAT IS
LIKELY ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK...POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE GULF FRONTS WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LATE-WEEKEND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AND THE SAME FOR THE DEEP TROUGHING WELL TO THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. JUST TOO EARLY TO TELL AT THIS POINT. MODEL
CONFIDENCE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE EXTENDED AFTER THE GAPS IN
EC AND WPC GUIDANCE WERE FILLED.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
PKZ012-013-041-042. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR
PKZ043-051-052.

&&

$$

AHN/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU











000
FXAK67 PAJK 302339
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
323 PM AKDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A 991 MB LOW NEAR
DIXON ENTRANCE MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH
STRONG WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES. CLOUDS OUT-SKIRTING FROM THE LOW CENTRAL SPREAD
NORTH. OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH A
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...BUT CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES SOAR UP TO THE MID 40S. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT...THEN CONSOLIDATES WITH A LOW IN THE
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. REFRESHED THE INHERITED
FORECAST WITH THE GFS AND NAM FOR THEIR GOOD CONSENSUS. SOLID SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND SOUTHERN
INNER CHANNELS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH...BUT ROUGH SEAS DUE TO
LONG PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST SWELLS WILL REMAIN OVER THE OUTSIDE
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. NOT MUCH DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATION
IS EXPECTED AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S WITH TUESDAY HIGHS BACK TO MID 40S.

AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH...STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WILL DECREASE BEHIND THE LOW...BUT BRIEFLY INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST TUESDAY AND
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL PRODUCE
WARM MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR FEEDING INTO DIXON ENTRANCE EAST.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED GRIDS A BIT DIFFICULT OBTAIN CONFIDENCE IN
INITIALLY DUE TO LACK OF EC DATA FROM LAST NIGHT...BUT FORTUITOUSLY
THAT RUN WAS AN OUTLIER PER HPC COORD. NEW RUN CAME MORE INLINE
WITH GEM AND GFS RUNS SO DESPITE THE SLOW START REASONABLE
CONFIDENCE FOR DAYS 4 ONWARD WAS ATTAINED. WEAK LOW OVER THE
EASTERN GULF ON TUES NIGHT WEAKENS FURTHER AND MOVES SLOWLY
INLAND...LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
PANHANDLE INTO WED AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
LOW PRESSURE TAKES OVER THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE WEST BY WED
MORNING AND GENERATES SCA-LEVEL WINDS OFFSHORE AND OVER ALL INNER
CHANNELS EXCEPT FOR LYNN CANAL AND GLACIER BAY BY WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING... AND INTO THURS FOR SOME CHANNELS AND OFFSHORE
ZONES. UTILIZED NAM/EC COMBO FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS
AGREEMENT WAS STRONG...WIND FIELD NEEDED TWEAKING OVER A FEW
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CHANNELS AS WELL AS OFFSHORE CONTINUING A BIT OF
AN UPWARD TREND. ALSO A SIGNIFICANT BARRIER JET IS PROGGED OVER THE
NORTHWEST PORTION AND GIVEN THE LONGEVITY OF THE LOW SEE NO REASON
NOT TO BELIEVE THIS. THE LOW STALLS OVER THE GULF ON GUIDANCE AND
EVENTUALLY WEAKENS ON THE MODELS BUT WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
INSTABILITY- DOMINATED AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS POTENTIALLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

AFTER THIS LOW MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THERE IS WEAK UPPER
RIDGING ON THE MODELS OVER THE GULF BUT THE PANHANDLE REMAINS IN
ENOUGH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...MOIST ON THE GEM, EC AND GFS
GUIDANCE UPDATES...THAT PRECIP ALONG WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ON
TAP FOR THIS WEEKEND. EVEN COOL ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
AT SEA LEVEL OVER THE NORTHERN FRINGE AND THE STRONGER EC IS
POINTING TOWARDS EVEN JUNEAU FOR THE LATE WEEKEND. BRIEF PERIOD OF
STRATIFORM PRECIP IS POSSIBLE FOR LATE SUNDAY OVER AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ON UPCOMING
MODEL UPDATES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SNOW. AFTER THIS
PERIOD..MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES TO SOME DEGREE BUT APPEARS THAT
THERE IS A BETTER-THAN-EVEN CHANCE THAT TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE ALEUTIANS AND FRONTS WILL CONTINUE TO ENTER THE
GULF IN THE MON-WED PERIOD. WITH THE GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE 3
MAJOR MODELS WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DO
NOT LIKE THE WAY THE POP FIELDS ARE SMEARED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
CANNOT REASONABLY RULE OUT ANY PERIOD FOR PRECIP CHANCES SO NO
CHOICE BUT TO GO WITH THE ENSEMBLE AT THIS POINT. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD BE A WARM MOIST ONE FOR ALL OF THE PANHANDLE UNLIKE WHAT IS
LIKELY ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK...POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE GULF FRONTS WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LATE-WEEKEND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AND THE SAME FOR THE DEEP TROUGHING WELL TO THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. JUST TOO EARLY TO TELL AT THIS POINT. MODEL
CONFIDENCE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE EXTENDED AFTER THE GAPS IN
EC AND WPC GUIDANCE WERE FILLED.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
PKZ012-013-041-042. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR
PKZ043-051-052.

&&

$$

AHN/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU












000
FXAK67 PAJK 302339
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
323 PM AKDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A 991 MB LOW NEAR
DIXON ENTRANCE MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH
STRONG WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES. CLOUDS OUT-SKIRTING FROM THE LOW CENTRAL SPREAD
NORTH. OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH A
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...BUT CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES SOAR UP TO THE MID 40S. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT...THEN CONSOLIDATES WITH A LOW IN THE
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. REFRESHED THE INHERITED
FORECAST WITH THE GFS AND NAM FOR THEIR GOOD CONSENSUS. SOLID SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND SOUTHERN
INNER CHANNELS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH...BUT ROUGH SEAS DUE TO
LONG PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST SWELLS WILL REMAIN OVER THE OUTSIDE
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. NOT MUCH DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATION
IS EXPECTED AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S WITH TUESDAY HIGHS BACK TO MID 40S.

AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH...STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WILL DECREASE BEHIND THE LOW...BUT BRIEFLY INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST TUESDAY AND
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL PRODUCE
WARM MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR FEEDING INTO DIXON ENTRANCE EAST.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED GRIDS A BIT DIFFICULT OBTAIN CONFIDENCE IN
INITIALLY DUE TO LACK OF EC DATA FROM LAST NIGHT...BUT FORTUITOUSLY
THAT RUN WAS AN OUTLIER PER HPC COORD. NEW RUN CAME MORE INLINE
WITH GEM AND GFS RUNS SO DESPITE THE SLOW START REASONABLE
CONFIDENCE FOR DAYS 4 ONWARD WAS ATTAINED. WEAK LOW OVER THE
EASTERN GULF ON TUES NIGHT WEAKENS FURTHER AND MOVES SLOWLY
INLAND...LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
PANHANDLE INTO WED AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
LOW PRESSURE TAKES OVER THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE WEST BY WED
MORNING AND GENERATES SCA-LEVEL WINDS OFFSHORE AND OVER ALL INNER
CHANNELS EXCEPT FOR LYNN CANAL AND GLACIER BAY BY WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING... AND INTO THURS FOR SOME CHANNELS AND OFFSHORE
ZONES. UTILIZED NAM/EC COMBO FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS
AGREEMENT WAS STRONG...WIND FIELD NEEDED TWEAKING OVER A FEW
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CHANNELS AS WELL AS OFFSHORE CONTINUING A BIT OF
AN UPWARD TREND. ALSO A SIGNIFICANT BARRIER JET IS PROGGED OVER THE
NORTHWEST PORTION AND GIVEN THE LONGEVITY OF THE LOW SEE NO REASON
NOT TO BELIEVE THIS. THE LOW STALLS OVER THE GULF ON GUIDANCE AND
EVENTUALLY WEAKENS ON THE MODELS BUT WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
INSTABILITY- DOMINATED AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS POTENTIALLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

AFTER THIS LOW MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THERE IS WEAK UPPER
RIDGING ON THE MODELS OVER THE GULF BUT THE PANHANDLE REMAINS IN
ENOUGH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...MOIST ON THE GEM, EC AND GFS
GUIDANCE UPDATES...THAT PRECIP ALONG WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ON
TAP FOR THIS WEEKEND. EVEN COOL ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
AT SEA LEVEL OVER THE NORTHERN FRINGE AND THE STRONGER EC IS
POINTING TOWARDS EVEN JUNEAU FOR THE LATE WEEKEND. BRIEF PERIOD OF
STRATIFORM PRECIP IS POSSIBLE FOR LATE SUNDAY OVER AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ON UPCOMING
MODEL UPDATES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SNOW. AFTER THIS
PERIOD..MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES TO SOME DEGREE BUT APPEARS THAT
THERE IS A BETTER-THAN-EVEN CHANCE THAT TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE ALEUTIANS AND FRONTS WILL CONTINUE TO ENTER THE
GULF IN THE MON-WED PERIOD. WITH THE GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE 3
MAJOR MODELS WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DO
NOT LIKE THE WAY THE POP FIELDS ARE SMEARED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
CANNOT REASONABLY RULE OUT ANY PERIOD FOR PRECIP CHANCES SO NO
CHOICE BUT TO GO WITH THE ENSEMBLE AT THIS POINT. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD BE A WARM MOIST ONE FOR ALL OF THE PANHANDLE UNLIKE WHAT IS
LIKELY ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK...POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE GULF FRONTS WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LATE-WEEKEND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AND THE SAME FOR THE DEEP TROUGHING WELL TO THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. JUST TOO EARLY TO TELL AT THIS POINT. MODEL
CONFIDENCE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE EXTENDED AFTER THE GAPS IN
EC AND WPC GUIDANCE WERE FILLED.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
PKZ012-013-041-042. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR
PKZ043-051-052.

&&

$$

AHN/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU












000
FXAK67 PAJK 301354
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
554 AM AKDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED SSE FROM NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND ACROSS THE NRN PAC DURING THE EARLY MORNING...WHILE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WAS AMPLIFYING OVER WRN CANADA. IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS QUICKLY APPROACHING HAIDA
GWAII...WITH BAROCLINIC LEAF CLOUD STRUCTURE BLOSSOMING ALONG
ITS NRN PERIPHERY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS SUBSEQUENTLY DEEPENED
IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING ZONE OF ASCENT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
COMING INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TRACKING THE LOW NWD FROM HAIDA GWAII
AT 18Z MON INTO THE SRN PANHANDLE BY 00Z TUE...AND THEN GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING IT THEREAFTER AS IT LIFTS INTO THE CNTRL PANHANDLE.
UPDATED PRESSURE GRIDS WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GEM/GFS.

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME LOCALLY INTENSE OVER CLARENCE STRAIT
AND AKZ028 /KETCHIKAN/...AND WILL SUPPORT SLY GALE FORCE WINDS FOR
CLARENCE...AND STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OVER THE KETCHIKAN
VICINITY. GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER AKZ027...AND
WLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS COULD OCCUR ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
OVER MARINE ZONES 41 AND 42. AS THE LOW TRACKS N...WINDS WILL
SLACKEN OVER THE S...BUT MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN TO SMALL CRAFT
OVER FREDRICK SOUND AND STEPHENS PASSAGE. OVER DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND
DOUGLAS...NE WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 35 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS 30-40 KT CROSS BARRIER FLOW PEAKS
IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN PANHANDLE LOW. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LYNN
CANAL...WHERE WINDS WILL FLIP TO N BY AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY
STRENGTHEN TO 25 KT BRIEFLY DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE NIGHT.

SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WAS POINTED TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND BC
AT 09Z. PART OF THIS MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES NEAR
0.6 INCH...IS FORECAST TO BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE CYCLONE
MOVING N FROM HAIDA GWAII. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE SRN PANHANDLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED FROM
KLAWOCK/HYDABURG E TO KETCHIKAN AS FOCUSED ZONE OF ENHANCED
ASCENT AND MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION. A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN APPEARS PROBABLE FOR THESE AREAS AS A RESULT. HIGHEST POP
VALUES THEN SHIFT TOWARD PETERSBURG/WRANGELL DURING THE NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TAKE ON AN OFFSHORE
COMPONENT OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL FAVOR CLEARING SKIES AND MILD HIGH TEMPERATURES /MID TO
UPPER 40S/. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL THEN BECOME INCREASINGLY PROBABLE
DURING THE NIGHT AS THE WEAKENING LOW APPROACHES FROM THE S.

.LONG TERM...WHILE THE MOST EXCITING DYNAMICS SURROUND THE SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO THE PANHANDLE TODAY, THE PARENT UPPER LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WILL SLOWLY CRAWL INTO OUR SIDE OF THE GULF TUESDAY
AND AFFECT SOUTHEAST`S WEATHER IN LESS IMPACTFUL WAYS.

AS THE JET HAS SLID WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST, LIGHT FLOW ALOFT WILL
HELP KEEP RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE COMPLEX ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE, BUT WE THINK THERE WILL BE A ZONE OF STABILITY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR PANHANDLE INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULF, WITH GREATER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ELSEWHERE. AS
THE COLDER UPPER LOW ADVANCES EASTWARD, COLDER AIR SHOULD
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE EVEN ACROSS YAKUTAT AND JUNEAU AND
SHOWERS WILL ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER
LOW, NOW AN OPEN TROUGH, MAKES IT JUST OFFSHORE OF CAPE DECISION
THOUGH, THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL EXPERIENCE A PEAK IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT JUST AS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
MAY SEE MORE QPF TUESDAY MORNING WITH MORE ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT.
CAPE VALUES WILL BE GREAT OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE DURING THIS
TIME, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
EVALUATED CLOSER INTO THE PERIOD.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES INTO CANADA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HINDERS
CONVECTIVE ASCENT. THIS TRANSIENT RIDGE IS A DIRECT RESPONSE TO
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER ENTERING THE WESTERN GULF ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM`S ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
ACCELERATE TO SOLID SMALL CRAFT FOR MARINE ZONE 310 AS WELL AS THE
OUTSIDE WATER ZONES. WE ALSO RAISED WIND SPEEDS TO GALE FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ZONE 52. THIS REPRESENTS A DEFINITE CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST, AS ALL MODELS ARE BRINGING THE FRONT INTO BETTER
RESOLUTION. LIKEWISE THE INSIDE CHANNELS MAY SEE SOME BRIEF
ACCELERATIONS FROM THE SOUTH. RIGHT NOW, HAVE LIMITED THE RISE IN
SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE
GREATER TO THE SOUTH WHERE CLARENCE WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO 30 KT
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR THESE WINDSPEEDS TO RISE AS
CONFIDENCE GROWS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
AND LIKELY THE COASTAL ZONES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PUSHING INTO
THE GREATER PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY. A CHANCE OF A LITTLE SNOW IS
POSSIBLE WITH SOME COOLER AIR BEING PULLED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT DOUBTFUL THIS WILL BE VERY IMPACTFUL AS
POTENTIAL AMOUNTS AND LIKELIHOOD BARELY DESERVES MENTIONING.
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST,
BUT WILL TAKE MORE TIME DISSIPATING FROM THE SOUTH DUE TO ITS
TRACK.

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK MAINLY DRY AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL AS A COOLER AND DRYER ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS AND
DIRECTS SOME BERING SEA AIR INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES, THUS A BLEND OF GEM, GFS, AND
NAM WAS USED TO BROAD-BRUSH SUBTLE TIMING/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES.
CONFIDENCE AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042-052.

&&

$$

GARNER/ADKINS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU











000
FXAK67 PAJK 301354
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
554 AM AKDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED SSE FROM NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND ACROSS THE NRN PAC DURING THE EARLY MORNING...WHILE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WAS AMPLIFYING OVER WRN CANADA. IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS QUICKLY APPROACHING HAIDA
GWAII...WITH BAROCLINIC LEAF CLOUD STRUCTURE BLOSSOMING ALONG
ITS NRN PERIPHERY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS SUBSEQUENTLY DEEPENED
IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING ZONE OF ASCENT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
COMING INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TRACKING THE LOW NWD FROM HAIDA GWAII
AT 18Z MON INTO THE SRN PANHANDLE BY 00Z TUE...AND THEN GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING IT THEREAFTER AS IT LIFTS INTO THE CNTRL PANHANDLE.
UPDATED PRESSURE GRIDS WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GEM/GFS.

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME LOCALLY INTENSE OVER CLARENCE STRAIT
AND AKZ028 /KETCHIKAN/...AND WILL SUPPORT SLY GALE FORCE WINDS FOR
CLARENCE...AND STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OVER THE KETCHIKAN
VICINITY. GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER AKZ027...AND
WLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS COULD OCCUR ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
OVER MARINE ZONES 41 AND 42. AS THE LOW TRACKS N...WINDS WILL
SLACKEN OVER THE S...BUT MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN TO SMALL CRAFT
OVER FREDRICK SOUND AND STEPHENS PASSAGE. OVER DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND
DOUGLAS...NE WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 35 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS 30-40 KT CROSS BARRIER FLOW PEAKS
IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN PANHANDLE LOW. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LYNN
CANAL...WHERE WINDS WILL FLIP TO N BY AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY
STRENGTHEN TO 25 KT BRIEFLY DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE NIGHT.

SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WAS POINTED TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND BC
AT 09Z. PART OF THIS MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES NEAR
0.6 INCH...IS FORECAST TO BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE CYCLONE
MOVING N FROM HAIDA GWAII. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE SRN PANHANDLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED FROM
KLAWOCK/HYDABURG E TO KETCHIKAN AS FOCUSED ZONE OF ENHANCED
ASCENT AND MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION. A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN APPEARS PROBABLE FOR THESE AREAS AS A RESULT. HIGHEST POP
VALUES THEN SHIFT TOWARD PETERSBURG/WRANGELL DURING THE NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TAKE ON AN OFFSHORE
COMPONENT OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL FAVOR CLEARING SKIES AND MILD HIGH TEMPERATURES /MID TO
UPPER 40S/. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL THEN BECOME INCREASINGLY PROBABLE
DURING THE NIGHT AS THE WEAKENING LOW APPROACHES FROM THE S.

.LONG TERM...WHILE THE MOST EXCITING DYNAMICS SURROUND THE SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO THE PANHANDLE TODAY, THE PARENT UPPER LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WILL SLOWLY CRAWL INTO OUR SIDE OF THE GULF TUESDAY
AND AFFECT SOUTHEAST`S WEATHER IN LESS IMPACTFUL WAYS.

AS THE JET HAS SLID WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST, LIGHT FLOW ALOFT WILL
HELP KEEP RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE COMPLEX ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE, BUT WE THINK THERE WILL BE A ZONE OF STABILITY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR PANHANDLE INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULF, WITH GREATER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ELSEWHERE. AS
THE COLDER UPPER LOW ADVANCES EASTWARD, COLDER AIR SHOULD
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE EVEN ACROSS YAKUTAT AND JUNEAU AND
SHOWERS WILL ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER
LOW, NOW AN OPEN TROUGH, MAKES IT JUST OFFSHORE OF CAPE DECISION
THOUGH, THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL EXPERIENCE A PEAK IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT JUST AS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
MAY SEE MORE QPF TUESDAY MORNING WITH MORE ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT.
CAPE VALUES WILL BE GREAT OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE DURING THIS
TIME, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
EVALUATED CLOSER INTO THE PERIOD.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES INTO CANADA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HINDERS
CONVECTIVE ASCENT. THIS TRANSIENT RIDGE IS A DIRECT RESPONSE TO
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER ENTERING THE WESTERN GULF ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM`S ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
ACCELERATE TO SOLID SMALL CRAFT FOR MARINE ZONE 310 AS WELL AS THE
OUTSIDE WATER ZONES. WE ALSO RAISED WIND SPEEDS TO GALE FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ZONE 52. THIS REPRESENTS A DEFINITE CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST, AS ALL MODELS ARE BRINGING THE FRONT INTO BETTER
RESOLUTION. LIKEWISE THE INSIDE CHANNELS MAY SEE SOME BRIEF
ACCELERATIONS FROM THE SOUTH. RIGHT NOW, HAVE LIMITED THE RISE IN
SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE
GREATER TO THE SOUTH WHERE CLARENCE WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO 30 KT
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR THESE WINDSPEEDS TO RISE AS
CONFIDENCE GROWS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
AND LIKELY THE COASTAL ZONES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PUSHING INTO
THE GREATER PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY. A CHANCE OF A LITTLE SNOW IS
POSSIBLE WITH SOME COOLER AIR BEING PULLED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT DOUBTFUL THIS WILL BE VERY IMPACTFUL AS
POTENTIAL AMOUNTS AND LIKELIHOOD BARELY DESERVES MENTIONING.
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST,
BUT WILL TAKE MORE TIME DISSIPATING FROM THE SOUTH DUE TO ITS
TRACK.

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK MAINLY DRY AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL AS A COOLER AND DRYER ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS AND
DIRECTS SOME BERING SEA AIR INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES, THUS A BLEND OF GEM, GFS, AND
NAM WAS USED TO BROAD-BRUSH SUBTLE TIMING/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES.
CONFIDENCE AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042-052.

&&

$$

GARNER/ADKINS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU











000
FXAK67 PAJK 301354
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
554 AM AKDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED SSE FROM NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND ACROSS THE NRN PAC DURING THE EARLY MORNING...WHILE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WAS AMPLIFYING OVER WRN CANADA. IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS QUICKLY APPROACHING HAIDA
GWAII...WITH BAROCLINIC LEAF CLOUD STRUCTURE BLOSSOMING ALONG
ITS NRN PERIPHERY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS SUBSEQUENTLY DEEPENED
IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING ZONE OF ASCENT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
COMING INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TRACKING THE LOW NWD FROM HAIDA GWAII
AT 18Z MON INTO THE SRN PANHANDLE BY 00Z TUE...AND THEN GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING IT THEREAFTER AS IT LIFTS INTO THE CNTRL PANHANDLE.
UPDATED PRESSURE GRIDS WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GEM/GFS.

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME LOCALLY INTENSE OVER CLARENCE STRAIT
AND AKZ028 /KETCHIKAN/...AND WILL SUPPORT SLY GALE FORCE WINDS FOR
CLARENCE...AND STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OVER THE KETCHIKAN
VICINITY. GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER AKZ027...AND
WLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS COULD OCCUR ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
OVER MARINE ZONES 41 AND 42. AS THE LOW TRACKS N...WINDS WILL
SLACKEN OVER THE S...BUT MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN TO SMALL CRAFT
OVER FREDRICK SOUND AND STEPHENS PASSAGE. OVER DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND
DOUGLAS...NE WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 35 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS 30-40 KT CROSS BARRIER FLOW PEAKS
IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN PANHANDLE LOW. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LYNN
CANAL...WHERE WINDS WILL FLIP TO N BY AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY
STRENGTHEN TO 25 KT BRIEFLY DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE NIGHT.

SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WAS POINTED TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND BC
AT 09Z. PART OF THIS MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES NEAR
0.6 INCH...IS FORECAST TO BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE CYCLONE
MOVING N FROM HAIDA GWAII. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE SRN PANHANDLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED FROM
KLAWOCK/HYDABURG E TO KETCHIKAN AS FOCUSED ZONE OF ENHANCED
ASCENT AND MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION. A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN APPEARS PROBABLE FOR THESE AREAS AS A RESULT. HIGHEST POP
VALUES THEN SHIFT TOWARD PETERSBURG/WRANGELL DURING THE NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TAKE ON AN OFFSHORE
COMPONENT OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL FAVOR CLEARING SKIES AND MILD HIGH TEMPERATURES /MID TO
UPPER 40S/. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL THEN BECOME INCREASINGLY PROBABLE
DURING THE NIGHT AS THE WEAKENING LOW APPROACHES FROM THE S.

.LONG TERM...WHILE THE MOST EXCITING DYNAMICS SURROUND THE SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO THE PANHANDLE TODAY, THE PARENT UPPER LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WILL SLOWLY CRAWL INTO OUR SIDE OF THE GULF TUESDAY
AND AFFECT SOUTHEAST`S WEATHER IN LESS IMPACTFUL WAYS.

AS THE JET HAS SLID WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST, LIGHT FLOW ALOFT WILL
HELP KEEP RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE COMPLEX ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE, BUT WE THINK THERE WILL BE A ZONE OF STABILITY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR PANHANDLE INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULF, WITH GREATER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ELSEWHERE. AS
THE COLDER UPPER LOW ADVANCES EASTWARD, COLDER AIR SHOULD
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE EVEN ACROSS YAKUTAT AND JUNEAU AND
SHOWERS WILL ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER
LOW, NOW AN OPEN TROUGH, MAKES IT JUST OFFSHORE OF CAPE DECISION
THOUGH, THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL EXPERIENCE A PEAK IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT JUST AS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
MAY SEE MORE QPF TUESDAY MORNING WITH MORE ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT.
CAPE VALUES WILL BE GREAT OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE DURING THIS
TIME, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
EVALUATED CLOSER INTO THE PERIOD.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES INTO CANADA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HINDERS
CONVECTIVE ASCENT. THIS TRANSIENT RIDGE IS A DIRECT RESPONSE TO
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER ENTERING THE WESTERN GULF ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM`S ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
ACCELERATE TO SOLID SMALL CRAFT FOR MARINE ZONE 310 AS WELL AS THE
OUTSIDE WATER ZONES. WE ALSO RAISED WIND SPEEDS TO GALE FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ZONE 52. THIS REPRESENTS A DEFINITE CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST, AS ALL MODELS ARE BRINGING THE FRONT INTO BETTER
RESOLUTION. LIKEWISE THE INSIDE CHANNELS MAY SEE SOME BRIEF
ACCELERATIONS FROM THE SOUTH. RIGHT NOW, HAVE LIMITED THE RISE IN
SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE
GREATER TO THE SOUTH WHERE CLARENCE WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO 30 KT
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR THESE WINDSPEEDS TO RISE AS
CONFIDENCE GROWS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
AND LIKELY THE COASTAL ZONES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PUSHING INTO
THE GREATER PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY. A CHANCE OF A LITTLE SNOW IS
POSSIBLE WITH SOME COOLER AIR BEING PULLED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT DOUBTFUL THIS WILL BE VERY IMPACTFUL AS
POTENTIAL AMOUNTS AND LIKELIHOOD BARELY DESERVES MENTIONING.
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST,
BUT WILL TAKE MORE TIME DISSIPATING FROM THE SOUTH DUE TO ITS
TRACK.

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK MAINLY DRY AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL AS A COOLER AND DRYER ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS AND
DIRECTS SOME BERING SEA AIR INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES, THUS A BLEND OF GEM, GFS, AND
NAM WAS USED TO BROAD-BRUSH SUBTLE TIMING/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES.
CONFIDENCE AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042-052.

&&

$$

GARNER/ADKINS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU










000
FXAK67 PAJK 292235
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
235 PM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE QUASI STATIONARY LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
ALASKA POSITIONS JUST SOUTH OF THE KODIAK ISLAND AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE BANDS OF SHOWERS NORTH TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. A BAND MOVING OUT OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC THIS EVENING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST GULF AREA COULD SPAWN A
FEW STRONGER CELLS WITH TO COLD POOL ALOFT AND TROUGH TO ASSIST
THE LIFT...THUS WILL MENTIONS ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE MARINES ZONES
41 AND 42.. POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE FAR EAST CORNER OF THE OFFSHORE
(310) TONIGHT.

WINDS GENERALLY 20 KT OR LESS FOR MARINE WATERS ALTHOUGH LOCALLY
SECTIONS OF 25 NEAR THE BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THAT BEING
SAID SMALL CRAFTS FOR SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
DUE TO THE RESIDUAL SWELLS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON SO CLOUDS AND
CHANCE TO LIKELY SHOULD BE EXPECTED CONTINUE THROUGH THAT TIME
FRAME. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AT WHITE PASS SUMMIT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN...HOWEVER SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY
HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES. TOTALS SHOULD BE MAINLY UNDER A HALF INCH.

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF MONDAY NIGHT SLOWLY DRIFTS A
LITTLE TO THE EAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW...ABOUT 998 MB...OVER THE CENTRAL GULF MONDAY NIGHT
WILL WEAKEN TO 1006 MB BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY. REFRESHED THE
INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE NAM12 FOR ITS GOOD INITIALIZATION AND
HANDLING THE LOW IN THE GULF THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. COOL AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF
BASES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND
ON WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH AN OCCLUDED FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONT...SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS.

MODELS DIVERT ON HANDLING THE SURFACE LOW NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND...BUT ABLE TO DRAW A GENERAL CONSENSUS TO BRING THE LOW
EASTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EMBEDDED COLD
CORE WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM
ALASKA INTERIOR WILL BRING COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. USED THE WPC
ENSEMBLE SOLUTION FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL GULF...PUSHING THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD AIR TO BRING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY INTO THE 20S OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042-052.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/AHN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 292235
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
235 PM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE QUASI STATIONARY LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
ALASKA POSITIONS JUST SOUTH OF THE KODIAK ISLAND AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE BANDS OF SHOWERS NORTH TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. A BAND MOVING OUT OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC THIS EVENING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST GULF AREA COULD SPAWN A
FEW STRONGER CELLS WITH TO COLD POOL ALOFT AND TROUGH TO ASSIST
THE LIFT...THUS WILL MENTIONS ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE MARINES ZONES
41 AND 42.. POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE FAR EAST CORNER OF THE OFFSHORE
(310) TONIGHT.

WINDS GENERALLY 20 KT OR LESS FOR MARINE WATERS ALTHOUGH LOCALLY
SECTIONS OF 25 NEAR THE BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THAT BEING
SAID SMALL CRAFTS FOR SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
DUE TO THE RESIDUAL SWELLS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON SO CLOUDS AND
CHANCE TO LIKELY SHOULD BE EXPECTED CONTINUE THROUGH THAT TIME
FRAME. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AT WHITE PASS SUMMIT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN...HOWEVER SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY
HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES. TOTALS SHOULD BE MAINLY UNDER A HALF INCH.

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF MONDAY NIGHT SLOWLY DRIFTS A
LITTLE TO THE EAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW...ABOUT 998 MB...OVER THE CENTRAL GULF MONDAY NIGHT
WILL WEAKEN TO 1006 MB BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY. REFRESHED THE
INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE NAM12 FOR ITS GOOD INITIALIZATION AND
HANDLING THE LOW IN THE GULF THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. COOL AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF
BASES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND
ON WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH AN OCCLUDED FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONT...SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS.

MODELS DIVERT ON HANDLING THE SURFACE LOW NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND...BUT ABLE TO DRAW A GENERAL CONSENSUS TO BRING THE LOW
EASTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EMBEDDED COLD
CORE WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM
ALASKA INTERIOR WILL BRING COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. USED THE WPC
ENSEMBLE SOLUTION FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL GULF...PUSHING THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD AIR TO BRING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY INTO THE 20S OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042-052.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/AHN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 291345
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
545 AM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
RAPIDLY MOVING NE TOWARD THE FAR SRN PANHANDLE. THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES SUPPORT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
LIGHTNING...WHICH HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE MORNING FORECAST
PACKAGE. THIS VORT FEATURE WILL THEN EXIT THE AREA BY MIDDAY SUN.
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE IN DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW FAVORABLE
FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY GIVEN THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF
STEEP LAPSE RATES. GOING INTO SUN NIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS
WITH A SMALL UPPER IMPULSE MOVING N INTO THE ERN GULF. THIS WAVE
WILL HAVE A MINOR REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE RESULTING IN ENHANCED
ESELY WINDS UP TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OVER OUTSIDE MARINE ZONES 42
AND 43 DURING THE LATE NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

MOISTURE AND A FOCUSED ZONE OF ASCENT WILL ALSO SPREAD NWD OVER
THE SERN GULF WITH THE UPPER IMPULSE...WHICH WILL MAXIMIZE SHOWER
PROBABILITIES FROM COASTAL AREAS NEAR SITKA SWD. IN ADDITION...AXIS
OF SBCAPE VALUES FROM 100-400 J/KG WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THIS
ZONE OF HIGHER SHOWER POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH A STRAY LIGHTNING
STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL BE SLIGHTLY SUB-OPTIMAL
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS...HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE
SUN NIGHT PERIOD ATTM.

USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM WITH INHERITED GRIDS FOR PRESSURE.
POP AND QPF WERE UPDATED USING AN ARW/GFS/ECMWF/INHERITED BLEND.

.LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD SWINGING THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE GULF A LITTLE FARTHER EASTWARD, THUS SHUNTING THE
THE JET SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL BC COAST FOR MONDAY. THE
SALIENT POINT OF THIS IS THAT THE SURFACE LOW WE HAVE BEEN
UNCERTAIN OF IN BOTH INTENSITY AND TRACK, NOW LOOKS TO FOLLOW WITH
A MORE EASTERLY TRACK NORTH THROUGH HECATE STRAIT MONDAY MORNING.
THEN IT WILL WEAKEN VERY QUICKLY AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON, DEPRIVED OF BOTH UPPER LEVEL JET
SUPPORT AND BAROCLINICITY. THUS RAIN AMOUNTS AND WIND HAVE BEEN
CURTAILED, ALTHOUGH THAT IS NOT TO SAY IT WILL NOT RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MONDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF
BROADENS INTO A TROUGH, COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE
PANHANDLE, DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE BY MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL
BUT THE FAR NORTH, THUS CHANGING THE RAIN TO SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WARM FRONT WITH
ITS SLOW STEADY ASCENT PREPARES TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
MIDWEEK. STEADIER RAINS ARE LIKELY AFTERWARD.

TWO OTHER FEATURES MORE EMBEDDED IN THE COLDER AIR ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD, WELL TO THE WEST OF
THE PANHANDLE. THESE FEATURES WILL LACK THE BAROCLINIC FUEL OF THE
TRAVELING WAVE TO THEIR SOUTH THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
LOW PUSHING THROUGH HECATE STRAIT MONDAY. ESSENTIALLY THEY WILL,
ONE, IMPOSE SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS FOR THE NORTHERN GULF MONDAY
AS THEY NEAR THE COAST, AND TWO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS OVER
THE GULF AND THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.

ACROSS THE INSIDE CHANNELS, WINDS WILL FLIP NORTH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS THE HECATE STRAIT LOW NEARS. BUT EXPECT WINDS TO STAY
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES.
BY MONDAY NIGHT, GRADIENTS FALL FLAT IN PARTICULAR OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM THE
SOUTH, THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OVER THE FAR NORTH STILL SUGGEST
ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY, THUS ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG FROM SKAGWAY TO
HOONAH/JUNEAU.

SOLUTIONS STARTING TO CONGREGATE OVER THE POSSIBILITY OF A GALE
FORCE FRONT ARRIVING IN THE CENTRAL GULF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
IMPACTING THE OUTSIDE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOK FOR WINDS
TO BE INCREASED IN FUTURE. WHAT WE ARE SURE OF IS THAT WET
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, AFTER WHICH THE
PARENT LOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND OPEN THE DOOR TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DRY WEEKEND. HINTS OF A COOL-DOWN INTO THE WEEKEND
APPEAR AS WELL, BUT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES LARGELY DOMINATE THROUGH
THE WEEK.

UPDATED FORECAST WITH NAM/ECMWF THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WHILE
RESERVING EDITS FOR LOCAL TWEAKS ON WEDNESDAY. NO WIND CHANGES
MADE AFTERWARD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IMPROVING IN THE MID-RANGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ041>043-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ051.

&&

$$

GARNER/JWA

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU












000
FXAK67 PAJK 291345
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
545 AM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
RAPIDLY MOVING NE TOWARD THE FAR SRN PANHANDLE. THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES SUPPORT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
LIGHTNING...WHICH HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE MORNING FORECAST
PACKAGE. THIS VORT FEATURE WILL THEN EXIT THE AREA BY MIDDAY SUN.
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE IN DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW FAVORABLE
FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY GIVEN THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF
STEEP LAPSE RATES. GOING INTO SUN NIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS
WITH A SMALL UPPER IMPULSE MOVING N INTO THE ERN GULF. THIS WAVE
WILL HAVE A MINOR REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE RESULTING IN ENHANCED
ESELY WINDS UP TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OVER OUTSIDE MARINE ZONES 42
AND 43 DURING THE LATE NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

MOISTURE AND A FOCUSED ZONE OF ASCENT WILL ALSO SPREAD NWD OVER
THE SERN GULF WITH THE UPPER IMPULSE...WHICH WILL MAXIMIZE SHOWER
PROBABILITIES FROM COASTAL AREAS NEAR SITKA SWD. IN ADDITION...AXIS
OF SBCAPE VALUES FROM 100-400 J/KG WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THIS
ZONE OF HIGHER SHOWER POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH A STRAY LIGHTNING
STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL BE SLIGHTLY SUB-OPTIMAL
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS...HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE
SUN NIGHT PERIOD ATTM.

USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM WITH INHERITED GRIDS FOR PRESSURE.
POP AND QPF WERE UPDATED USING AN ARW/GFS/ECMWF/INHERITED BLEND.

.LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD SWINGING THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE GULF A LITTLE FARTHER EASTWARD, THUS SHUNTING THE
THE JET SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL BC COAST FOR MONDAY. THE
SALIENT POINT OF THIS IS THAT THE SURFACE LOW WE HAVE BEEN
UNCERTAIN OF IN BOTH INTENSITY AND TRACK, NOW LOOKS TO FOLLOW WITH
A MORE EASTERLY TRACK NORTH THROUGH HECATE STRAIT MONDAY MORNING.
THEN IT WILL WEAKEN VERY QUICKLY AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON, DEPRIVED OF BOTH UPPER LEVEL JET
SUPPORT AND BAROCLINICITY. THUS RAIN AMOUNTS AND WIND HAVE BEEN
CURTAILED, ALTHOUGH THAT IS NOT TO SAY IT WILL NOT RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MONDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF
BROADENS INTO A TROUGH, COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE
PANHANDLE, DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE BY MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL
BUT THE FAR NORTH, THUS CHANGING THE RAIN TO SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WARM FRONT WITH
ITS SLOW STEADY ASCENT PREPARES TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
MIDWEEK. STEADIER RAINS ARE LIKELY AFTERWARD.

TWO OTHER FEATURES MORE EMBEDDED IN THE COLDER AIR ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD, WELL TO THE WEST OF
THE PANHANDLE. THESE FEATURES WILL LACK THE BAROCLINIC FUEL OF THE
TRAVELING WAVE TO THEIR SOUTH THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
LOW PUSHING THROUGH HECATE STRAIT MONDAY. ESSENTIALLY THEY WILL,
ONE, IMPOSE SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS FOR THE NORTHERN GULF MONDAY
AS THEY NEAR THE COAST, AND TWO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS OVER
THE GULF AND THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.

ACROSS THE INSIDE CHANNELS, WINDS WILL FLIP NORTH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS THE HECATE STRAIT LOW NEARS. BUT EXPECT WINDS TO STAY
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES.
BY MONDAY NIGHT, GRADIENTS FALL FLAT IN PARTICULAR OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM THE
SOUTH, THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OVER THE FAR NORTH STILL SUGGEST
ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY, THUS ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG FROM SKAGWAY TO
HOONAH/JUNEAU.

SOLUTIONS STARTING TO CONGREGATE OVER THE POSSIBILITY OF A GALE
FORCE FRONT ARRIVING IN THE CENTRAL GULF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
IMPACTING THE OUTSIDE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOK FOR WINDS
TO BE INCREASED IN FUTURE. WHAT WE ARE SURE OF IS THAT WET
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, AFTER WHICH THE
PARENT LOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND OPEN THE DOOR TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DRY WEEKEND. HINTS OF A COOL-DOWN INTO THE WEEKEND
APPEAR AS WELL, BUT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES LARGELY DOMINATE THROUGH
THE WEEK.

UPDATED FORECAST WITH NAM/ECMWF THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WHILE
RESERVING EDITS FOR LOCAL TWEAKS ON WEDNESDAY. NO WIND CHANGES
MADE AFTERWARD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IMPROVING IN THE MID-RANGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ041>043-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ051.

&&

$$

GARNER/JWA

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU











000
FXAK67 PAJK 291345
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
545 AM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
RAPIDLY MOVING NE TOWARD THE FAR SRN PANHANDLE. THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES SUPPORT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
LIGHTNING...WHICH HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE MORNING FORECAST
PACKAGE. THIS VORT FEATURE WILL THEN EXIT THE AREA BY MIDDAY SUN.
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE IN DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW FAVORABLE
FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY GIVEN THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF
STEEP LAPSE RATES. GOING INTO SUN NIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS
WITH A SMALL UPPER IMPULSE MOVING N INTO THE ERN GULF. THIS WAVE
WILL HAVE A MINOR REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE RESULTING IN ENHANCED
ESELY WINDS UP TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OVER OUTSIDE MARINE ZONES 42
AND 43 DURING THE LATE NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

MOISTURE AND A FOCUSED ZONE OF ASCENT WILL ALSO SPREAD NWD OVER
THE SERN GULF WITH THE UPPER IMPULSE...WHICH WILL MAXIMIZE SHOWER
PROBABILITIES FROM COASTAL AREAS NEAR SITKA SWD. IN ADDITION...AXIS
OF SBCAPE VALUES FROM 100-400 J/KG WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THIS
ZONE OF HIGHER SHOWER POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH A STRAY LIGHTNING
STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL BE SLIGHTLY SUB-OPTIMAL
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS...HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE
SUN NIGHT PERIOD ATTM.

USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM WITH INHERITED GRIDS FOR PRESSURE.
POP AND QPF WERE UPDATED USING AN ARW/GFS/ECMWF/INHERITED BLEND.

.LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD SWINGING THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE GULF A LITTLE FARTHER EASTWARD, THUS SHUNTING THE
THE JET SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL BC COAST FOR MONDAY. THE
SALIENT POINT OF THIS IS THAT THE SURFACE LOW WE HAVE BEEN
UNCERTAIN OF IN BOTH INTENSITY AND TRACK, NOW LOOKS TO FOLLOW WITH
A MORE EASTERLY TRACK NORTH THROUGH HECATE STRAIT MONDAY MORNING.
THEN IT WILL WEAKEN VERY QUICKLY AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON, DEPRIVED OF BOTH UPPER LEVEL JET
SUPPORT AND BAROCLINICITY. THUS RAIN AMOUNTS AND WIND HAVE BEEN
CURTAILED, ALTHOUGH THAT IS NOT TO SAY IT WILL NOT RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MONDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF
BROADENS INTO A TROUGH, COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE
PANHANDLE, DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE BY MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL
BUT THE FAR NORTH, THUS CHANGING THE RAIN TO SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WARM FRONT WITH
ITS SLOW STEADY ASCENT PREPARES TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
MIDWEEK. STEADIER RAINS ARE LIKELY AFTERWARD.

TWO OTHER FEATURES MORE EMBEDDED IN THE COLDER AIR ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD, WELL TO THE WEST OF
THE PANHANDLE. THESE FEATURES WILL LACK THE BAROCLINIC FUEL OF THE
TRAVELING WAVE TO THEIR SOUTH THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
LOW PUSHING THROUGH HECATE STRAIT MONDAY. ESSENTIALLY THEY WILL,
ONE, IMPOSE SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS FOR THE NORTHERN GULF MONDAY
AS THEY NEAR THE COAST, AND TWO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS OVER
THE GULF AND THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.

ACROSS THE INSIDE CHANNELS, WINDS WILL FLIP NORTH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS THE HECATE STRAIT LOW NEARS. BUT EXPECT WINDS TO STAY
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES.
BY MONDAY NIGHT, GRADIENTS FALL FLAT IN PARTICULAR OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM THE
SOUTH, THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OVER THE FAR NORTH STILL SUGGEST
ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY, THUS ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG FROM SKAGWAY TO
HOONAH/JUNEAU.

SOLUTIONS STARTING TO CONGREGATE OVER THE POSSIBILITY OF A GALE
FORCE FRONT ARRIVING IN THE CENTRAL GULF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
IMPACTING THE OUTSIDE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOK FOR WINDS
TO BE INCREASED IN FUTURE. WHAT WE ARE SURE OF IS THAT WET
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, AFTER WHICH THE
PARENT LOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND OPEN THE DOOR TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DRY WEEKEND. HINTS OF A COOL-DOWN INTO THE WEEKEND
APPEAR AS WELL, BUT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES LARGELY DOMINATE THROUGH
THE WEEK.

UPDATED FORECAST WITH NAM/ECMWF THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WHILE
RESERVING EDITS FOR LOCAL TWEAKS ON WEDNESDAY. NO WIND CHANGES
MADE AFTERWARD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IMPROVING IN THE MID-RANGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ041>043-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ051.

&&

$$

GARNER/JWA

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU












000
FXAK67 PAJK 291345
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
545 AM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
RAPIDLY MOVING NE TOWARD THE FAR SRN PANHANDLE. THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES SUPPORT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
LIGHTNING...WHICH HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE MORNING FORECAST
PACKAGE. THIS VORT FEATURE WILL THEN EXIT THE AREA BY MIDDAY SUN.
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE IN DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW FAVORABLE
FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY GIVEN THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF
STEEP LAPSE RATES. GOING INTO SUN NIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS
WITH A SMALL UPPER IMPULSE MOVING N INTO THE ERN GULF. THIS WAVE
WILL HAVE A MINOR REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE RESULTING IN ENHANCED
ESELY WINDS UP TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OVER OUTSIDE MARINE ZONES 42
AND 43 DURING THE LATE NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

MOISTURE AND A FOCUSED ZONE OF ASCENT WILL ALSO SPREAD NWD OVER
THE SERN GULF WITH THE UPPER IMPULSE...WHICH WILL MAXIMIZE SHOWER
PROBABILITIES FROM COASTAL AREAS NEAR SITKA SWD. IN ADDITION...AXIS
OF SBCAPE VALUES FROM 100-400 J/KG WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THIS
ZONE OF HIGHER SHOWER POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH A STRAY LIGHTNING
STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL BE SLIGHTLY SUB-OPTIMAL
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS...HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE
SUN NIGHT PERIOD ATTM.

USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM WITH INHERITED GRIDS FOR PRESSURE.
POP AND QPF WERE UPDATED USING AN ARW/GFS/ECMWF/INHERITED BLEND.

.LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD SWINGING THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE GULF A LITTLE FARTHER EASTWARD, THUS SHUNTING THE
THE JET SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL BC COAST FOR MONDAY. THE
SALIENT POINT OF THIS IS THAT THE SURFACE LOW WE HAVE BEEN
UNCERTAIN OF IN BOTH INTENSITY AND TRACK, NOW LOOKS TO FOLLOW WITH
A MORE EASTERLY TRACK NORTH THROUGH HECATE STRAIT MONDAY MORNING.
THEN IT WILL WEAKEN VERY QUICKLY AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON, DEPRIVED OF BOTH UPPER LEVEL JET
SUPPORT AND BAROCLINICITY. THUS RAIN AMOUNTS AND WIND HAVE BEEN
CURTAILED, ALTHOUGH THAT IS NOT TO SAY IT WILL NOT RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MONDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF
BROADENS INTO A TROUGH, COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE
PANHANDLE, DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE BY MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL
BUT THE FAR NORTH, THUS CHANGING THE RAIN TO SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WARM FRONT WITH
ITS SLOW STEADY ASCENT PREPARES TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
MIDWEEK. STEADIER RAINS ARE LIKELY AFTERWARD.

TWO OTHER FEATURES MORE EMBEDDED IN THE COLDER AIR ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD, WELL TO THE WEST OF
THE PANHANDLE. THESE FEATURES WILL LACK THE BAROCLINIC FUEL OF THE
TRAVELING WAVE TO THEIR SOUTH THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
LOW PUSHING THROUGH HECATE STRAIT MONDAY. ESSENTIALLY THEY WILL,
ONE, IMPOSE SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS FOR THE NORTHERN GULF MONDAY
AS THEY NEAR THE COAST, AND TWO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS OVER
THE GULF AND THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.

ACROSS THE INSIDE CHANNELS, WINDS WILL FLIP NORTH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS THE HECATE STRAIT LOW NEARS. BUT EXPECT WINDS TO STAY
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES.
BY MONDAY NIGHT, GRADIENTS FALL FLAT IN PARTICULAR OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM THE
SOUTH, THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OVER THE FAR NORTH STILL SUGGEST
ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY, THUS ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG FROM SKAGWAY TO
HOONAH/JUNEAU.

SOLUTIONS STARTING TO CONGREGATE OVER THE POSSIBILITY OF A GALE
FORCE FRONT ARRIVING IN THE CENTRAL GULF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
IMPACTING THE OUTSIDE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOK FOR WINDS
TO BE INCREASED IN FUTURE. WHAT WE ARE SURE OF IS THAT WET
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, AFTER WHICH THE
PARENT LOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND OPEN THE DOOR TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DRY WEEKEND. HINTS OF A COOL-DOWN INTO THE WEEKEND
APPEAR AS WELL, BUT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES LARGELY DOMINATE THROUGH
THE WEEK.

UPDATED FORECAST WITH NAM/ECMWF THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WHILE
RESERVING EDITS FOR LOCAL TWEAKS ON WEDNESDAY. NO WIND CHANGES
MADE AFTERWARD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IMPROVING IN THE MID-RANGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ041>043-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ051.

&&

$$

GARNER/JWA

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU











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