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000
FXAK67 PAJK 220015
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
415 PM AKDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...RAPIDLY EVOLVING WEATHER SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STORM FORCE LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF MOVING NORTH. AS EXPECTED
THERE HAS A QUICK SWITCH TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RAIN CONTINUES
TO FALL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
RATES OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FOCUS OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FOR THIS EVENING.

AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. A COUPLE OF THINGS WILL AID THESE
STRONGER WINDS...STRONG PRESSURE RISES AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
JUMPS INLAND LATER THIS EVENING, 55-65 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING
OVERHEAD, AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE AND TRANSFER THOSE WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.
THEREFORE HAVE SMALL CRAFT TO GALE WINDS ACROSS MANY OF THE INNER
CHANNELS WITH STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR SEVERAL LAND ZONES THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...LINGERING
LONGEST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE INCLUDING LYNN CANAL AND
THE SKAGWAY AREA.

SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING AS LOW AS 0 C OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
TRANSITION TO A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH SHOWERS BECOMING
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE INSTEAD OF STEADY STRATIFORM RAIN.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE
VICINITY OF YAKUTAT. HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY IN THE GULF WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG AND LIFTED
INDICES AROUND -2 TO -3 C. WILL NEED TO MONITOR WHETHER THIS
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL COULD SPREAD INTO THE OUTER COASTAL AREAS.

MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IT REMAINED
CONSISTENT WITH FORECASTER THINKING. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE
IN WIDESPREAD WIND EVENT THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...BY MON NIGHT THE CURRENT STORM IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL
BE DISSIPATING AND JUMPING INLAND INTO THE YUKON. ECMWF AND GFS
TREND TOWARD A BRIEF DRY PERIOD MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER APPROACHES SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE ABOUT WED FOR SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN AGAIN
OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL TREND IS HIGH.

MAIN EFFORT TODAY WAS FOCUSED ON TRANSITIONING FROM VERY STRONG
STORM CAUSING HIGH WINDS AND SEAS TO A DRIER AND CALM PATTERN BY
TUE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF AK
MON AND TUE AND PASSES TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT NORTH WINDS TO
INCREASE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AFTER THIS FEATURE PASSES
THROUGH. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED STRONG GAP WINDS
STARTING ABOUT TUE NIGHT AS WELL BUT I DID NOT ADD THIS DETAIL IN
THE GRIDDED FORECASTS YET.

WED INTO THUR THE EC AND GFS INDICATE THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR N-NE AND A CLOSED LOW
CENTERED WEST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS PATTERN USUALLY RESULTS IN
DRY WEATHER AND VERY LIGHT WINDS. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH OUT FOR CHILLY TEMPS AND PERHAPS AREAS OF FROST TUES
MORNING AND THEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER FOG EPISODE WED-THUR
TIME FRAME AS THE N-E WINDS DIMINISH. THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR SOUTH IS
PREDICTED TO EDGE ITS WAY NORTH FROM THUR THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY REACHING WEST OF HAIDA GWAII...GRADUALLY WRAPPING
MORE CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE LATE IN THE WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
HAS RESULTED IN RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS. WATER LEVELS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH BANKFULL BUT THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&


.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ023-026>028.
 STRONG WIND UNTIL 1 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ025.
 STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ022.
STRONG WIND FROM 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
AKZ019.
 STRONG WIND FROM 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031-033-035-036-041>043-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-032-034-052-053.

&&

$$

TPS/TA

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







000
FXAK67 PAJK 220015
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
415 PM AKDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...RAPIDLY EVOLVING WEATHER SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STORM FORCE LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF MOVING NORTH. AS EXPECTED
THERE HAS A QUICK SWITCH TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RAIN CONTINUES
TO FALL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
RATES OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FOCUS OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FOR THIS EVENING.

AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. A COUPLE OF THINGS WILL AID THESE
STRONGER WINDS...STRONG PRESSURE RISES AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
JUMPS INLAND LATER THIS EVENING, 55-65 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING
OVERHEAD, AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE AND TRANSFER THOSE WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.
THEREFORE HAVE SMALL CRAFT TO GALE WINDS ACROSS MANY OF THE INNER
CHANNELS WITH STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR SEVERAL LAND ZONES THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...LINGERING
LONGEST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE INCLUDING LYNN CANAL AND
THE SKAGWAY AREA.

SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING AS LOW AS 0 C OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
TRANSITION TO A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH SHOWERS BECOMING
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE INSTEAD OF STEADY STRATIFORM RAIN.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE
VICINITY OF YAKUTAT. HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY IN THE GULF WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG AND LIFTED
INDICES AROUND -2 TO -3 C. WILL NEED TO MONITOR WHETHER THIS
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL COULD SPREAD INTO THE OUTER COASTAL AREAS.

MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IT REMAINED
CONSISTENT WITH FORECASTER THINKING. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE
IN WIDESPREAD WIND EVENT THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...BY MON NIGHT THE CURRENT STORM IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL
BE DISSIPATING AND JUMPING INLAND INTO THE YUKON. ECMWF AND GFS
TREND TOWARD A BRIEF DRY PERIOD MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER APPROACHES SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE ABOUT WED FOR SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN AGAIN
OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL TREND IS HIGH.

MAIN EFFORT TODAY WAS FOCUSED ON TRANSITIONING FROM VERY STRONG
STORM CAUSING HIGH WINDS AND SEAS TO A DRIER AND CALM PATTERN BY
TUE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF AK
MON AND TUE AND PASSES TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT NORTH WINDS TO
INCREASE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AFTER THIS FEATURE PASSES
THROUGH. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED STRONG GAP WINDS
STARTING ABOUT TUE NIGHT AS WELL BUT I DID NOT ADD THIS DETAIL IN
THE GRIDDED FORECASTS YET.

WED INTO THUR THE EC AND GFS INDICATE THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR N-NE AND A CLOSED LOW
CENTERED WEST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS PATTERN USUALLY RESULTS IN
DRY WEATHER AND VERY LIGHT WINDS. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH OUT FOR CHILLY TEMPS AND PERHAPS AREAS OF FROST TUES
MORNING AND THEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER FOG EPISODE WED-THUR
TIME FRAME AS THE N-E WINDS DIMINISH. THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR SOUTH IS
PREDICTED TO EDGE ITS WAY NORTH FROM THUR THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY REACHING WEST OF HAIDA GWAII...GRADUALLY WRAPPING
MORE CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE LATE IN THE WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
HAS RESULTED IN RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS. WATER LEVELS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH BANKFULL BUT THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&


.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ023-026>028.
 STRONG WIND UNTIL 1 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ025.
 STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ022.
STRONG WIND FROM 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
AKZ019.
 STRONG WIND FROM 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031-033-035-036-041>043-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-032-034-052-053.

&&

$$

TPS/TA

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 211409
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
609 AM AKDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FUN WITH FRONTS CONTINUES. A NEW LOW IS CURRENTLY
MOVING NORTH BEFORE CURVING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
LATER TODAY. BY THIS EVENING THE LOW WILL PUSH ASHORE SOMEWHERE
WEST OF YAKUTAT BAY. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS
PUSHING A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WITH THE LOW`S PROGRESSION INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF.
HOWEVER...COLD AIR ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO THE LOW`S STRENGTH
WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM WILL INFILTRATE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT CHANGING THE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION TO
SHOWERS.

THE LOW WILL PACK STORM FORCE WESTERLIES BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS IT
DRIVES NORTHWARD...STRADDLING THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN OUR OUTSIDE
WATERS AND OUR OFFSHORE ZONE OF 310. AS COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND
THE SYSTEM IN ITS LEE...FELT THE NEED TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH SOME OF THE INSIDE CHANNELS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SURFACE
WINDS OVER THE MARINE WATERS SHOULD BE BETTER SUPPORTED FROM WINDS
ALOFT THAN YESTERDAY`S SYSTEM WHERE SCRIPTED WINDS FELL FLAT FROM
WEAKER COLD AIR ADVECTION IF ANY AT ALL. COOLER AIR IS MORE DENSE
AND LESS BUOYANT, AND THUS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS...APPROACHING 50
KT OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WILL FIND IT EASIER TO EXCITE
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS SEEM TO BE HAVE MOVED
FASTER THAN THE MODELS CAN KEEP UP, AND THUS WENT WITH THE FAST
ECMWF. THE SPEED OF THE GFS WAS DISCOUNTED EARLY ON. MOST ALL THE
MODELS BACKED OFF ON THE STORM FORCE SOUTHEAST WINDS, BUT ELECTED
TO KEEP THE STORM FORCE WESTERLIES BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THE STRONG
WIND HEADLINES POSTED FOR ZONES 27 AND 28 ARE NOT LOOKING AS MONEY
AS AS ONCE WERE. THINK THE SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL BE STRONGEST IN
THE MORNING, BUT FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE GOOD S/SW WINDS, WHICH
FOR THE MOST PART DO NOT HAPPEN TO BE WHERE WE HAVE AIRPORT SITES,
A SHORT BURST OF SOUTHWESTERLIES MAY GUST TO 40 MPH AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. STRONG WIND EXTENDED FOR ZONE 22 TO COVER STRONG
WESTERLIES THIS EVENING AS THE WELL AS THE STRONG EASTERLIES THIS
AFTERNOON. JUNEAU`S WINDS WILL RISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO
DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING. SKAGWAY WILL SEE 50 MPH GUSTS LATER THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SHOULD RECEIVE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
SHOULD ROUNDLY RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 AND ONE QUARTER INCH. RISES IN
STREAMS LIKE THE STIKINE AND THE STANEY SEEM TO HAVE PLATEAUED OR
BEGUN TO PLATEAU. RIVERS ARE RELATIVELY HIGH OVER THE NORTH AND
WILL BE MONITORED TODAY FOR TRENDS AS THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS PUSH
NORTHWARD AND STALL. YAKUTAT SHOULD RECEIVE MOST OF ITS RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ECMWF USED FOR WIND/PRESSURE UPDATES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE
FOR WINDS...MUCH BETTER FOR POPS/QPF.

.LONG TERM...A RESIDUAL LOW FROM THE REMAINS OF THE SUNDAY
SURFACE LOW THAT DID NOT MANAGE TO CROSS THE ST. ELIAS RANGE WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST DRIFTING WEST TO SOUTH OF THE
KENAI PENINSULA WHILE SURFACE RIDGE BUILD OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA
PANHANDLE ON MONDAY. EXPECT TO SEE THE RIDGE TO DRIFT EAST INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA BY EARLY TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE LOW THAT
BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED ALONG 45 NORTH SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS LOW WILL DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE LATER HALF
OF THE WEEK...THOUGH THERE SEEMS TO BE LIGHT NORTHEAST TURN
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OUTER COAST.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY
TO THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ABOUT WEDNESDAY
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE ROTATING NORTH TROUGH BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SLOWLY THOUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THE LAST PART OF
THE. OVER ALL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN RAIN TOTALS FOR WEDNESDAY ON
OVER THE PANHANDLE.

THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE MAY BE EVEN SEE SOME SUNSHINE
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FOG ISSUES TUESDAY
NIGHT I THINK ONCE WE GET SOME BETTER CLEARING OVER THE PANHANDLE
BUT HAVEN`T STARTED ADVERTISING IT SIGNIFICANTLY JUST YET.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027-028.
         STRONG WIND FROM 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND FROM 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-033-035-036-041>043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-031-032-034-052-053.

&&

$$

JWA/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 211409
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
609 AM AKDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FUN WITH FRONTS CONTINUES. A NEW LOW IS CURRENTLY
MOVING NORTH BEFORE CURVING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
LATER TODAY. BY THIS EVENING THE LOW WILL PUSH ASHORE SOMEWHERE
WEST OF YAKUTAT BAY. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS
PUSHING A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WITH THE LOW`S PROGRESSION INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF.
HOWEVER...COLD AIR ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO THE LOW`S STRENGTH
WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM WILL INFILTRATE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT CHANGING THE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION TO
SHOWERS.

THE LOW WILL PACK STORM FORCE WESTERLIES BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS IT
DRIVES NORTHWARD...STRADDLING THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN OUR OUTSIDE
WATERS AND OUR OFFSHORE ZONE OF 310. AS COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND
THE SYSTEM IN ITS LEE...FELT THE NEED TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH SOME OF THE INSIDE CHANNELS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SURFACE
WINDS OVER THE MARINE WATERS SHOULD BE BETTER SUPPORTED FROM WINDS
ALOFT THAN YESTERDAY`S SYSTEM WHERE SCRIPTED WINDS FELL FLAT FROM
WEAKER COLD AIR ADVECTION IF ANY AT ALL. COOLER AIR IS MORE DENSE
AND LESS BUOYANT, AND THUS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS...APPROACHING 50
KT OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WILL FIND IT EASIER TO EXCITE
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS SEEM TO BE HAVE MOVED
FASTER THAN THE MODELS CAN KEEP UP, AND THUS WENT WITH THE FAST
ECMWF. THE SPEED OF THE GFS WAS DISCOUNTED EARLY ON. MOST ALL THE
MODELS BACKED OFF ON THE STORM FORCE SOUTHEAST WINDS, BUT ELECTED
TO KEEP THE STORM FORCE WESTERLIES BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THE STRONG
WIND HEADLINES POSTED FOR ZONES 27 AND 28 ARE NOT LOOKING AS MONEY
AS AS ONCE WERE. THINK THE SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL BE STRONGEST IN
THE MORNING, BUT FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE GOOD S/SW WINDS, WHICH
FOR THE MOST PART DO NOT HAPPEN TO BE WHERE WE HAVE AIRPORT SITES,
A SHORT BURST OF SOUTHWESTERLIES MAY GUST TO 40 MPH AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. STRONG WIND EXTENDED FOR ZONE 22 TO COVER STRONG
WESTERLIES THIS EVENING AS THE WELL AS THE STRONG EASTERLIES THIS
AFTERNOON. JUNEAU`S WINDS WILL RISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO
DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING. SKAGWAY WILL SEE 50 MPH GUSTS LATER THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SHOULD RECEIVE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
SHOULD ROUNDLY RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 AND ONE QUARTER INCH. RISES IN
STREAMS LIKE THE STIKINE AND THE STANEY SEEM TO HAVE PLATEAUED OR
BEGUN TO PLATEAU. RIVERS ARE RELATIVELY HIGH OVER THE NORTH AND
WILL BE MONITORED TODAY FOR TRENDS AS THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS PUSH
NORTHWARD AND STALL. YAKUTAT SHOULD RECEIVE MOST OF ITS RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ECMWF USED FOR WIND/PRESSURE UPDATES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE
FOR WINDS...MUCH BETTER FOR POPS/QPF.

.LONG TERM...A RESIDUAL LOW FROM THE REMAINS OF THE SUNDAY
SURFACE LOW THAT DID NOT MANAGE TO CROSS THE ST. ELIAS RANGE WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST DRIFTING WEST TO SOUTH OF THE
KENAI PENINSULA WHILE SURFACE RIDGE BUILD OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA
PANHANDLE ON MONDAY. EXPECT TO SEE THE RIDGE TO DRIFT EAST INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA BY EARLY TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE LOW THAT
BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED ALONG 45 NORTH SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS LOW WILL DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE LATER HALF
OF THE WEEK...THOUGH THERE SEEMS TO BE LIGHT NORTHEAST TURN
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OUTER COAST.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY
TO THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ABOUT WEDNESDAY
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE ROTATING NORTH TROUGH BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SLOWLY THOUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THE LAST PART OF
THE. OVER ALL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN RAIN TOTALS FOR WEDNESDAY ON
OVER THE PANHANDLE.

THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE MAY BE EVEN SEE SOME SUNSHINE
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FOG ISSUES TUESDAY
NIGHT I THINK ONCE WE GET SOME BETTER CLEARING OVER THE PANHANDLE
BUT HAVEN`T STARTED ADVERTISING IT SIGNIFICANTLY JUST YET.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027-028.
         STRONG WIND FROM 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND FROM 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-033-035-036-041>043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-031-032-034-052-053.

&&

$$

JWA/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU










000
FXAK67 PAJK 202256
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
256 PM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...DIFFICULT DECISION TODAY ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF THE NEXT WAVE OFF THE COAST AS THE GALE FORCE LOW THIS MORNING
DISSIPATES THIS EVENING. CHOSE THE 20/12Z ECMWF AS THE GUIDANCE
WHICH WAS THE DEEPEST OF THE OPS MODELS BUT CONSISTENT WITH THE
TRACK AND STORM FORCE WINDS OF THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. WIND WIND WIND
WAS THE CHALLENGE. INDICATED STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR THE OUTER
COAST AND KETCHIKAN AND GALES AND STORMS IN THE MARINE FORECASTS.
CONFIDENCE ONLY MODERATE AND IF IN ERROR THE WIND SPEEDS WERE
FORECASTED ON THE HIGH SIDE RESPECTING THIS STORM. WET WET WET BUT
WITH MODERATE TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...BIGGEST STORY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE STORM FORCE LOW
IN THE EASTERN GULF THAT IS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT RANGE SECTION.
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND WEST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE INLAND IN THE VICINITY OF ICY BAY. AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INLAND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTH OVER THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A STRONG WIND
EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. JET STREAM SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA
MID WEEK WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRIER OFFSHORE FLOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA. MODELS INDICATE THIS UPPER
LEVEL WILL GET PUSHED TO THE EAST LATER NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH
TRIES TO REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL GULF LEADING TO A
RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEK.

WIND EVENT WILL BE ONGOING IN THE EASTERN GULF AND ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RAPIDLY MONDAY EVENING
COMBINED WITH A 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE QUICKLY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT STRONG WIND GUSTS
OF AT LEAST 40-50 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE LAND AREAS AND 30-40 KTS
OF WIND IN THE MARINE LOCATIONS. HAVE NOT EXTENDED STRONG WIND
HEADLINES FROM SHORT TERM PERIOD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE BUT THEY WILL BE INCLUDED WITH THE NEXT PACKAGE.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...LINGERING LONGEST OVER
THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS INCLUDING LYNN CANAL AND NEAR SKAGWAY.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WIND DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS MUCH OF A
CONCERN AS THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW.

RAIN WILL BE FALLING ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLE BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS A
COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING CLOSE TO
0-2 C. THIS RESULTS IN SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 4000 FEET.
SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER MONDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THAT WITH BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ROTATING
UP FROM THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH. INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY NEXT WEEKEND.

USED THE 12Z ECMWF AS IT WAS A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR THE STORM
FORCE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG RANGE
PERIOD. TRANSITIONED TO LATEST WPC GUIDANCE AFTER DAY 4.
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE REMAINS A BIT LOWER THAN AVERAGE WITH STORM
FORCE LOW AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK.FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONFIDENCE
IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ022-023-028.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041>043.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-035-036-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031-032-034-052-053.

&&

$$

JC/TPS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 202256
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
256 PM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...DIFFICULT DECISION TODAY ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF THE NEXT WAVE OFF THE COAST AS THE GALE FORCE LOW THIS MORNING
DISSIPATES THIS EVENING. CHOSE THE 20/12Z ECMWF AS THE GUIDANCE
WHICH WAS THE DEEPEST OF THE OPS MODELS BUT CONSISTENT WITH THE
TRACK AND STORM FORCE WINDS OF THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. WIND WIND WIND
WAS THE CHALLENGE. INDICATED STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR THE OUTER
COAST AND KETCHIKAN AND GALES AND STORMS IN THE MARINE FORECASTS.
CONFIDENCE ONLY MODERATE AND IF IN ERROR THE WIND SPEEDS WERE
FORECASTED ON THE HIGH SIDE RESPECTING THIS STORM. WET WET WET BUT
WITH MODERATE TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...BIGGEST STORY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE STORM FORCE LOW
IN THE EASTERN GULF THAT IS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT RANGE SECTION.
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND WEST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE INLAND IN THE VICINITY OF ICY BAY. AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INLAND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTH OVER THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A STRONG WIND
EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. JET STREAM SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA
MID WEEK WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRIER OFFSHORE FLOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA. MODELS INDICATE THIS UPPER
LEVEL WILL GET PUSHED TO THE EAST LATER NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH
TRIES TO REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL GULF LEADING TO A
RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEK.

WIND EVENT WILL BE ONGOING IN THE EASTERN GULF AND ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RAPIDLY MONDAY EVENING
COMBINED WITH A 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE QUICKLY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT STRONG WIND GUSTS
OF AT LEAST 40-50 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE LAND AREAS AND 30-40 KTS
OF WIND IN THE MARINE LOCATIONS. HAVE NOT EXTENDED STRONG WIND
HEADLINES FROM SHORT TERM PERIOD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE BUT THEY WILL BE INCLUDED WITH THE NEXT PACKAGE.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...LINGERING LONGEST OVER
THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS INCLUDING LYNN CANAL AND NEAR SKAGWAY.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WIND DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS MUCH OF A
CONCERN AS THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW.

RAIN WILL BE FALLING ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLE BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS A
COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING CLOSE TO
0-2 C. THIS RESULTS IN SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 4000 FEET.
SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER MONDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THAT WITH BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ROTATING
UP FROM THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH. INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY NEXT WEEKEND.

USED THE 12Z ECMWF AS IT WAS A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR THE STORM
FORCE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG RANGE
PERIOD. TRANSITIONED TO LATEST WPC GUIDANCE AFTER DAY 4.
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE REMAINS A BIT LOWER THAN AVERAGE WITH STORM
FORCE LOW AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK.FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONFIDENCE
IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ022-023-028.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041>043.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-035-036-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031-032-034-052-053.

&&

$$

JC/TPS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 201358
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
558 AM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...YET ANOTHER LOW IS SPEEDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL AROUND CHICHAGOF ISLAND LATE
THIS MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR STRONG
WINDS AND GALES ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. DEFINITE
VERIFICATION WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ALONG THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS
AND TO 50 MPH ON PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. LINCOLN ROCK IS GUSTING TO
HURRICANE FORCE AT THIS HOUR. THESE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...FLIPPING WIND NORTHERLY WIND
DIRECTIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...BUT WILL WEAKEN AS THE
LOW MAKES LANDFALL. THINK THE SETUP AROUND JUNEAU WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE RIPE FOR SOME STRONG GUSTINESS AROUND MID-DAY WITH GALES BACK
SIDE OF DOUGLAS...PROBABLY EARLY AFTERNOON. BUT IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE LOW...AS IT IS A BIT FASTER,
THE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN JUNEAU COULD OCCUR BEFORE NOON. STILL KEPT
THE STRONG WINDS FOR SKAGWAY FOR LATE AFTERNOON AS IT MAKES SENSE
WITH THE RIDGE POPPING UP BEHIND THE DIMINISHED LOW`S EXIT INTO
CANADA.

THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN FIRST OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AND THEN OVER THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW ONCE AGAIN
APPROACHES THE EASTERN GULF BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND FLIPS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE BACK TO NORTH.

THE BAND OF RAIN STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY. HOWEVER THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE DEEP
ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME NEGATIVE TILTING THUS ALLOWING FOR THE RAIN
TO PUSH NORTH AGAIN WITH A FRONT. THE BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
PERSIST GENERALLY SOUTH/EAST OF PETERSBURG THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE ADVANCING TO JUNEAU/TENAKEE/SITKA LATE TONIGHT.

SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED OVER THE NORTHERN OUTSIDE
WATERS AND YAKUTAT OVERNIGHT, BUT THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE
ENOUGH WITH THE ADVANCING LOW THIS MORNING TO HELP PUSH THIS THREAT
OUT OF OUR CWA TO THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING.

SOME CREEKS ARE RISING THIS MORNING...OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS...NOTABLY THE STANEY NEAR KLAWOCK. THESE WILL BE MONITORED
TODAY. BUT STILL SEVERAL FEET BELOW ACTION.

NAM/ECMWF USED FOR UPDATES...MAINLY TODAY TO HELP DRIVE THE
SYSTEM`S WINDS FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOOD TO AVERAGE.



.LONG TERM...MOST OF THE 00Z RUNS HAD A SIMILAR PATTERN ON SUNDAY
AS DEVELOPING LOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC NORTH OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
MODELS HAD VARY INTENSITIES AND POST IONS BU MOST AGREED THE LOW
SHOULD DEVELOP TO AT LEAST THE MID 970S. USED A BLEND OF THE
MODELS THE QUICKEN THE PACE SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
ALSO STRENGTHENED THE WINDS ALONG THE FRONT TO MAX GALES AND SOME
MIN STORM FORCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF COASTAL WATERS. PULLING
NORTHWARD FROM ITS SOURCE REGION IT SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME GOOD
RAINFALL AS THE ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. RIVER LEVELS
SHOULD BE UP DO NOT THINK FLOODING WILL BE AN ISSUE.

AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD EXPECT A BAND OF STORM FORCE ALONG THE
FRONT THAT WILL BE WEAKENING BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW REACHES
THE NORTHERN GULF. THE STRONG WIND ALONG WITH A FAIRLY STRAIGHT
PATH OF THE LOW SHOULD DRIVE SEAS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR
NOW MOST ARE 20 TO 25 FEET BUT COULD POSSIBLY SEE HIGHER NUMBERS.

WILL LIKELY BE NEEDING ANOTHER ROUND STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR
COASTAL AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT... OR IF THE FRONT REMAINS AS STRONG AS
IT LOOKS IT MIGHT MIGHT EVEN BE STEP UP TO TO BIGGER ISSUES.

LATER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED AND THE JET STREAM HAS THE FLOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE GULF
TOWARD THE VANCOUVER ISLAND ARE A PULLS SOUTHEAST ALASKA OUT OF
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THIS HAS SHIFTED MUCH FROM EARLIER
FORECASTS SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THAT FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY RISING BUT HOVERING AT AVERAGE NOW
AND AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME FRAMES.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ026-028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 1 PM TO 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ031-033>036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-032-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ051>053.

&&

$$

JWA/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU










000
FXAK67 PAJK 201358
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
558 AM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...YET ANOTHER LOW IS SPEEDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL AROUND CHICHAGOF ISLAND LATE
THIS MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR STRONG
WINDS AND GALES ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. DEFINITE
VERIFICATION WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ALONG THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS
AND TO 50 MPH ON PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. LINCOLN ROCK IS GUSTING TO
HURRICANE FORCE AT THIS HOUR. THESE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...FLIPPING WIND NORTHERLY WIND
DIRECTIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...BUT WILL WEAKEN AS THE
LOW MAKES LANDFALL. THINK THE SETUP AROUND JUNEAU WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE RIPE FOR SOME STRONG GUSTINESS AROUND MID-DAY WITH GALES BACK
SIDE OF DOUGLAS...PROBABLY EARLY AFTERNOON. BUT IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE LOW...AS IT IS A BIT FASTER,
THE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN JUNEAU COULD OCCUR BEFORE NOON. STILL KEPT
THE STRONG WINDS FOR SKAGWAY FOR LATE AFTERNOON AS IT MAKES SENSE
WITH THE RIDGE POPPING UP BEHIND THE DIMINISHED LOW`S EXIT INTO
CANADA.

THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN FIRST OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AND THEN OVER THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW ONCE AGAIN
APPROACHES THE EASTERN GULF BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND FLIPS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE BACK TO NORTH.

THE BAND OF RAIN STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY. HOWEVER THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE DEEP
ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME NEGATIVE TILTING THUS ALLOWING FOR THE RAIN
TO PUSH NORTH AGAIN WITH A FRONT. THE BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
PERSIST GENERALLY SOUTH/EAST OF PETERSBURG THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE ADVANCING TO JUNEAU/TENAKEE/SITKA LATE TONIGHT.

SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED OVER THE NORTHERN OUTSIDE
WATERS AND YAKUTAT OVERNIGHT, BUT THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE
ENOUGH WITH THE ADVANCING LOW THIS MORNING TO HELP PUSH THIS THREAT
OUT OF OUR CWA TO THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING.

SOME CREEKS ARE RISING THIS MORNING...OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS...NOTABLY THE STANEY NEAR KLAWOCK. THESE WILL BE MONITORED
TODAY. BUT STILL SEVERAL FEET BELOW ACTION.

NAM/ECMWF USED FOR UPDATES...MAINLY TODAY TO HELP DRIVE THE
SYSTEM`S WINDS FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOOD TO AVERAGE.



.LONG TERM...MOST OF THE 00Z RUNS HAD A SIMILAR PATTERN ON SUNDAY
AS DEVELOPING LOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC NORTH OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
MODELS HAD VARY INTENSITIES AND POST IONS BU MOST AGREED THE LOW
SHOULD DEVELOP TO AT LEAST THE MID 970S. USED A BLEND OF THE
MODELS THE QUICKEN THE PACE SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
ALSO STRENGTHENED THE WINDS ALONG THE FRONT TO MAX GALES AND SOME
MIN STORM FORCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF COASTAL WATERS. PULLING
NORTHWARD FROM ITS SOURCE REGION IT SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME GOOD
RAINFALL AS THE ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. RIVER LEVELS
SHOULD BE UP DO NOT THINK FLOODING WILL BE AN ISSUE.

AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD EXPECT A BAND OF STORM FORCE ALONG THE
FRONT THAT WILL BE WEAKENING BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW REACHES
THE NORTHERN GULF. THE STRONG WIND ALONG WITH A FAIRLY STRAIGHT
PATH OF THE LOW SHOULD DRIVE SEAS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR
NOW MOST ARE 20 TO 25 FEET BUT COULD POSSIBLY SEE HIGHER NUMBERS.

WILL LIKELY BE NEEDING ANOTHER ROUND STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR
COASTAL AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT... OR IF THE FRONT REMAINS AS STRONG AS
IT LOOKS IT MIGHT MIGHT EVEN BE STEP UP TO TO BIGGER ISSUES.

LATER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED AND THE JET STREAM HAS THE FLOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE GULF
TOWARD THE VANCOUVER ISLAND ARE A PULLS SOUTHEAST ALASKA OUT OF
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THIS HAS SHIFTED MUCH FROM EARLIER
FORECASTS SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THAT FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY RISING BUT HOVERING AT AVERAGE NOW
AND AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME FRAMES.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ026-028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 1 PM TO 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ031-033>036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-032-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ051>053.

&&

$$

JWA/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 192346
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
346 PM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NW GULF WILL WEAKEN THERE
TONIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE SAT. A LOW WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NNE INTO
THE SE GULF LATE TONIGHT...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL
PANHANDLE SAT. ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE THRU ALL BUT THE FAR
SERN AREA...WHERE IT WILL STALL SAT AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER LOW
STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NE PAC. USED BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND
NAM AS THEY WERE VERY CLOSE ON HANDLING THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT. GFS APPEARED TO BE TOO FAST WHILE THE
GEM LOOKED TOO STRONG AND TOO FAR W WITH IT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS AND PRECIP POTENTIAL/AMOUNTS.
WINDS REMAIN LOCALLY STRONG OVER THE FAR NRN INNER CHANNELS BUT
THEY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE SERN AREA TONIGHT AS LOW AND FRONT MOVE IN. WINDS COULD
APPROACH STORM FORCE OVER THE FAR SERN GULF AND CLARENCE STRAIT
BETWEEN 12-18Z SAT...BUT WILL PEAK THEM AT 45 KT FOR NOW AS
CONFIDENCE IN ULTIMATE STRENGTH OF THE LOW/FRONT IS NOT VERY HIGH
DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WILL HAVE
STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR ZONES 26..27..AND 28 FOR LATE TONIGHT
AND SAT MORNING. WINDS COULD APPROACH HIGH WIND LEVELS IN ZONE 27
12-18Z. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ZONE 28 FOR END TIME OF THESE
STRONG WINDS AS THEY COULD HANG ON LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
DUE TO FRONT STALLING OVER THEM.

AS FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL AND AMOUNTS...SHOWERS OVER THE NRN HALF OF
THE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH OVER ALL BUT THE NE GULF COAST AREA AS
WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW AND FRONT.
STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD WILL SPREAD N ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING AND REACH MOST OF THE NRN AREA LATE TONIGHT. AFTER TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVES THRU MOST OF THE AREA SAT...PRECIP SHOULD BECOME
SHOWERY NW OF FREDERICK SOUND BY SAT AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE SERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WHERE STRONGEST SLY
LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE. RAINFALL THERE COULD BE IN THE 1.5 TO 4
INCH RANGE BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON...WITH THE KETCHIKAN AREA HAVING
BEST SHOT AT THE 4 INCHES OF RAIN BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THIS RAIN
SHOULD CAUSE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE QUICKLY...BUT AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLOODING THRU SAT AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND COULD LEAD TO MUDSLIDES NEAR STEEP
TERRAIN S OF THE FREDERICK SOUND AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT.

OTHERWISE...WILL LEAVE IN ISOLATED TSTMS FOR THE PAYA AREA FOR THE
EARLY EVENING PERIOD (THRU 03Z). WARMING AND PASSAGE OF VORT MAXIMA
ALOFT WILL LIKELY END THIS THREAT LATER IN THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE AK INTERIOR INTO
THE N PACIFIC WILL WIND TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY SWINGING
ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE LOW NORTHWARD INTO THE AK GULF. MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO FALL MORE IN LINE WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW HOWEVER
THERE IS A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN STRENGTH, AT LEAST 10 MB. THUS THIS
LOW WILL AT LEAST BE MAX SMALL CRAFT WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
REACHING STORM FORCE. SEAS WILL BUILD INTO THE 12 TO 18 FOOT
RANGE WITH THE ADVANCING LOW AND FRONT. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL AGAIN PUSH OVER THE PANHANDLE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
ADVANCING FRONT WITH INCREASING WINDS OVER THE INNER CHANNEL.
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PANHANDLE ON
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THEN BACK AGAIN AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD. THERE WILL BE DROPS IN
SPEEDS AS THE WINDS FLIP BUT SPEEDS WILL PICK UP FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
GRADIENTS INCREASE.

THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING NEARING
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
PANHANDLE INTO TUESDAY. TO THE SOUTH A 980 MB LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD
SOUTH OF 50 N TOWARD THE WASHINGTON COAST. INDICATIONS THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD PUSH NORTHWARD AND REACH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND AK
GULF LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT WITH THE RUN TO RUN VARIATIONS HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS.

WHILE 12Z ECMWF/GFS DIFFERED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SUNDAY LOW,
AROUND 10 MB, THEY DID HAVE SIMILAR TRACKS. USED A BLEND OF THE
DEEPER ECMWF AND WEAKER GFS FOR NOW. WITH THE LARGE SPREAD IN
OPERATIONS MODELS KEPT WITH AN ENSEMBLE BLEND BY USING THE NEW
WPC. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE BUT DROPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS AND STREAMS IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL SEE SHARP
RISES TO BANKFULL OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS SEVERAL WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION PASS THROUGH THE PANHANDLE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ026.
         STRONG WIND FROM 1 AM AKDT SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 1 AM AKDT SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ018-019.
         STRONG WIND FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-033>036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-032-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

$$

RWT/PRB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU











000
FXAK67 PAJK 192346
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
346 PM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NW GULF WILL WEAKEN THERE
TONIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE SAT. A LOW WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NNE INTO
THE SE GULF LATE TONIGHT...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL
PANHANDLE SAT. ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE THRU ALL BUT THE FAR
SERN AREA...WHERE IT WILL STALL SAT AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER LOW
STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NE PAC. USED BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND
NAM AS THEY WERE VERY CLOSE ON HANDLING THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT. GFS APPEARED TO BE TOO FAST WHILE THE
GEM LOOKED TOO STRONG AND TOO FAR W WITH IT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS AND PRECIP POTENTIAL/AMOUNTS.
WINDS REMAIN LOCALLY STRONG OVER THE FAR NRN INNER CHANNELS BUT
THEY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE SERN AREA TONIGHT AS LOW AND FRONT MOVE IN. WINDS COULD
APPROACH STORM FORCE OVER THE FAR SERN GULF AND CLARENCE STRAIT
BETWEEN 12-18Z SAT...BUT WILL PEAK THEM AT 45 KT FOR NOW AS
CONFIDENCE IN ULTIMATE STRENGTH OF THE LOW/FRONT IS NOT VERY HIGH
DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WILL HAVE
STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR ZONES 26..27..AND 28 FOR LATE TONIGHT
AND SAT MORNING. WINDS COULD APPROACH HIGH WIND LEVELS IN ZONE 27
12-18Z. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ZONE 28 FOR END TIME OF THESE
STRONG WINDS AS THEY COULD HANG ON LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
DUE TO FRONT STALLING OVER THEM.

AS FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL AND AMOUNTS...SHOWERS OVER THE NRN HALF OF
THE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH OVER ALL BUT THE NE GULF COAST AREA AS
WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW AND FRONT.
STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD WILL SPREAD N ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING AND REACH MOST OF THE NRN AREA LATE TONIGHT. AFTER TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVES THRU MOST OF THE AREA SAT...PRECIP SHOULD BECOME
SHOWERY NW OF FREDERICK SOUND BY SAT AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE SERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WHERE STRONGEST SLY
LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE. RAINFALL THERE COULD BE IN THE 1.5 TO 4
INCH RANGE BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON...WITH THE KETCHIKAN AREA HAVING
BEST SHOT AT THE 4 INCHES OF RAIN BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THIS RAIN
SHOULD CAUSE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE QUICKLY...BUT AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLOODING THRU SAT AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND COULD LEAD TO MUDSLIDES NEAR STEEP
TERRAIN S OF THE FREDERICK SOUND AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT.

OTHERWISE...WILL LEAVE IN ISOLATED TSTMS FOR THE PAYA AREA FOR THE
EARLY EVENING PERIOD (THRU 03Z). WARMING AND PASSAGE OF VORT MAXIMA
ALOFT WILL LIKELY END THIS THREAT LATER IN THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE AK INTERIOR INTO
THE N PACIFIC WILL WIND TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY SWINGING
ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE LOW NORTHWARD INTO THE AK GULF. MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO FALL MORE IN LINE WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW HOWEVER
THERE IS A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN STRENGTH, AT LEAST 10 MB. THUS THIS
LOW WILL AT LEAST BE MAX SMALL CRAFT WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
REACHING STORM FORCE. SEAS WILL BUILD INTO THE 12 TO 18 FOOT
RANGE WITH THE ADVANCING LOW AND FRONT. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL AGAIN PUSH OVER THE PANHANDLE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
ADVANCING FRONT WITH INCREASING WINDS OVER THE INNER CHANNEL.
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PANHANDLE ON
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THEN BACK AGAIN AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD. THERE WILL BE DROPS IN
SPEEDS AS THE WINDS FLIP BUT SPEEDS WILL PICK UP FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
GRADIENTS INCREASE.

THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING NEARING
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
PANHANDLE INTO TUESDAY. TO THE SOUTH A 980 MB LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD
SOUTH OF 50 N TOWARD THE WASHINGTON COAST. INDICATIONS THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD PUSH NORTHWARD AND REACH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND AK
GULF LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT WITH THE RUN TO RUN VARIATIONS HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS.

WHILE 12Z ECMWF/GFS DIFFERED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SUNDAY LOW,
AROUND 10 MB, THEY DID HAVE SIMILAR TRACKS. USED A BLEND OF THE
DEEPER ECMWF AND WEAKER GFS FOR NOW. WITH THE LARGE SPREAD IN
OPERATIONS MODELS KEPT WITH AN ENSEMBLE BLEND BY USING THE NEW
WPC. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE BUT DROPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS AND STREAMS IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL SEE SHARP
RISES TO BANKFULL OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS SEVERAL WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION PASS THROUGH THE PANHANDLE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ026.
         STRONG WIND FROM 1 AM AKDT SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 1 AM AKDT SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ018-019.
         STRONG WIND FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-033>036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-032-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

$$

RWT/PRB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU










000
FXAK67 PAJK 191350
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
550 AM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH SPINS OVER THE WESTERN GULF THE
FIRST BIG WAVE IS CURRENTLY EXITING SLOWLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE WHILE THE NEXT BIG WAVE IS GETTING
ORGANIZED WELL TO THE SOUTH. IMPACTS OF FIRST CIRCULATION ARE
WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AND RAINFALL. CURRENTLY MAJOR RAINFALL IS
CONFINED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS. WINDS GUSTING TO 45KT IN SOUTHERN
LYNN AND CROSS SOUND WHILE MOST AREAS ARE SEEING SLIGHTLY LESS WIND
BUT INTO GALE CATEGORY FOR SOME AREAS...CHATHAM AND LYNN AS WELL AS
STEPHENS AND PORTIONS OFFSHORE.  IMPACTS FROM THIS FIRST WAVE WERE
OVERALL A BIT LESS THAN ANTICIPATED FOR RAIN. ALSO WE ADDED SHOWERS
WORDING TO TODAY`S FORECAST AND BROUGHT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR AREAS IN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH TODAY BASED ON OBSERVED STRONG
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND MODEL FORECASTS OF CAPE. HEAVY RAIN
HAS A GOOD SHOT AT IMPACTING THE FAR SOUTH BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
AND SPREADING NORTHWARD. SECOND WAVE TAKES A MORE FAVORABLE TRACK
FOR SOME HEAVIER RAIN. ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF THE GFS/EC/GEM FIELDS
SEEMED APPROPO FOR THE SHORT TERM AS SURFACE FEATURES MORE
CONSISTENT...AND SIGNAL A STRONGER SECONDARY LOW/FRONT SYSTEM WHOSE
IMPACTS WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT OVER THE SOUTH TONIGHT. WE ADJUSTED
WINDS FOR THIS SYSTEM STRONGER FOR ICY STRAIGHT, CROSS SOUND AND
FREDERICK SOUND OTHERWISE THE INHERITED WINDS SEEMED CONSISTENT
WITH MODEL FEATURES AND LEAD TO THE HIGHLIGHTS SUMMARIZED BELOW.

FOR HAZARDS/ADVISORIES WE HAVE GALES TODAY FOR MOST INNER CHANNELS
ON THE NORTH SIDE...SCA OFFSHORE AND THE REST OF MOST OF THE INNER
CHANNELS TODAY. STRONG WINDS HIGHLIGHT ZONES FOR THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS EXCEPTING YAKUTAT. THESE GENERALLY ARE TRENDING NORTH AND
DIMINISHING LATE. MEANWHILE FOR THE SECOND LOW WE HAVE GALES BY
TONIGHT IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERNMOST INNER CHANNELS AND SCA
WINDS SPREADING NORTHWARD ELSEWHERE. GALE IS INCLUDED FOR CLARENCE
STRAIT TONIGHT ALSO AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OFFSHORE BY 12Z SAT.
STRONG WINDS ARE WORDED FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES. FOR THIS SHORTTERM
PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE AS THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
SPREAD IN STRENGTH FOR THE SECOND LOW APPROACHING TONIGHT FOR THE
SOUTH. HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF WITH THIS FALL-LIKE SYSTEM
AND WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE FLOODING PROBLEMS...EG JUNEAU AREA...AT
THIS TIME BASED ON CURRENT MODEL FIELDS.


.LONG TERM...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA PERSISTS AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF
IT DIGGING THROUGH THE BASE ON SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN TURNING
NORTHWARD BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF. THE TROUGH
LOOKS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVE INTO THE WEST PORTION OF THE
TROUGH AND MOVING ABOUT THE TROUGH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FEATURE LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST OF
THEN IN THE NEAR FUTURE. MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND SUGGESTING THAT A DEEP FALL STORM WITH SURFACE LOW
LOWERING IN THE MID 960S THE WILL DRIVE NORTH ALONG THE OUTER OF
THE PANHANDLE TO THE NORTHEAST GULF POCKET. WITH THIS LOW MOVING OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AM EXPECTING TO SEE SOME GOOD RAINFALL
TOTALS AS THE LOW WILL HAVE TAPPED SOME

FOR THE MID TO THE END OF THE WEEK FORECAST THE JETS STREAM WILL
BE CARRYING THE SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF REGION
LEAVING SOUTHEAST ALASKA OUT OF THE MAIN FLOW PATTERN FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

IN OVERVIEW RAIN AND SOME WIND THROUGH MONDAY SWITCHING OVER TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

BRIEF GLANCE AT THE HYDROLOGY PICTURE SHOWS MOST RIVERS AND
STREAMS BELOW BANKFULL BY A COUPLE OF FEET AND WHILE THE RAINS
WILL INCREASE THE WATER LEVELS NOT ANTICIPATING FLOODING ISSUES AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ027-028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ024.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ020>022-025.
         STRONG WIND FROM 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND FROM 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-022-031>033-036-041-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-034-035-042-051>053.

&&

$$

WESLEY/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 191350
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
550 AM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH SPINS OVER THE WESTERN GULF THE
FIRST BIG WAVE IS CURRENTLY EXITING SLOWLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE WHILE THE NEXT BIG WAVE IS GETTING
ORGANIZED WELL TO THE SOUTH. IMPACTS OF FIRST CIRCULATION ARE
WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AND RAINFALL. CURRENTLY MAJOR RAINFALL IS
CONFINED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS. WINDS GUSTING TO 45KT IN SOUTHERN
LYNN AND CROSS SOUND WHILE MOST AREAS ARE SEEING SLIGHTLY LESS WIND
BUT INTO GALE CATEGORY FOR SOME AREAS...CHATHAM AND LYNN AS WELL AS
STEPHENS AND PORTIONS OFFSHORE.  IMPACTS FROM THIS FIRST WAVE WERE
OVERALL A BIT LESS THAN ANTICIPATED FOR RAIN. ALSO WE ADDED SHOWERS
WORDING TO TODAY`S FORECAST AND BROUGHT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR AREAS IN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH TODAY BASED ON OBSERVED STRONG
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND MODEL FORECASTS OF CAPE. HEAVY RAIN
HAS A GOOD SHOT AT IMPACTING THE FAR SOUTH BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
AND SPREADING NORTHWARD. SECOND WAVE TAKES A MORE FAVORABLE TRACK
FOR SOME HEAVIER RAIN. ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF THE GFS/EC/GEM FIELDS
SEEMED APPROPO FOR THE SHORT TERM AS SURFACE FEATURES MORE
CONSISTENT...AND SIGNAL A STRONGER SECONDARY LOW/FRONT SYSTEM WHOSE
IMPACTS WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT OVER THE SOUTH TONIGHT. WE ADJUSTED
WINDS FOR THIS SYSTEM STRONGER FOR ICY STRAIGHT, CROSS SOUND AND
FREDERICK SOUND OTHERWISE THE INHERITED WINDS SEEMED CONSISTENT
WITH MODEL FEATURES AND LEAD TO THE HIGHLIGHTS SUMMARIZED BELOW.

FOR HAZARDS/ADVISORIES WE HAVE GALES TODAY FOR MOST INNER CHANNELS
ON THE NORTH SIDE...SCA OFFSHORE AND THE REST OF MOST OF THE INNER
CHANNELS TODAY. STRONG WINDS HIGHLIGHT ZONES FOR THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS EXCEPTING YAKUTAT. THESE GENERALLY ARE TRENDING NORTH AND
DIMINISHING LATE. MEANWHILE FOR THE SECOND LOW WE HAVE GALES BY
TONIGHT IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERNMOST INNER CHANNELS AND SCA
WINDS SPREADING NORTHWARD ELSEWHERE. GALE IS INCLUDED FOR CLARENCE
STRAIT TONIGHT ALSO AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OFFSHORE BY 12Z SAT.
STRONG WINDS ARE WORDED FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES. FOR THIS SHORTTERM
PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE AS THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
SPREAD IN STRENGTH FOR THE SECOND LOW APPROACHING TONIGHT FOR THE
SOUTH. HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF WITH THIS FALL-LIKE SYSTEM
AND WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE FLOODING PROBLEMS...EG JUNEAU AREA...AT
THIS TIME BASED ON CURRENT MODEL FIELDS.


.LONG TERM...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA PERSISTS AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF
IT DIGGING THROUGH THE BASE ON SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN TURNING
NORTHWARD BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF. THE TROUGH
LOOKS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVE INTO THE WEST PORTION OF THE
TROUGH AND MOVING ABOUT THE TROUGH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FEATURE LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST OF
THEN IN THE NEAR FUTURE. MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND SUGGESTING THAT A DEEP FALL STORM WITH SURFACE LOW
LOWERING IN THE MID 960S THE WILL DRIVE NORTH ALONG THE OUTER OF
THE PANHANDLE TO THE NORTHEAST GULF POCKET. WITH THIS LOW MOVING OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AM EXPECTING TO SEE SOME GOOD RAINFALL
TOTALS AS THE LOW WILL HAVE TAPPED SOME

FOR THE MID TO THE END OF THE WEEK FORECAST THE JETS STREAM WILL
BE CARRYING THE SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF REGION
LEAVING SOUTHEAST ALASKA OUT OF THE MAIN FLOW PATTERN FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

IN OVERVIEW RAIN AND SOME WIND THROUGH MONDAY SWITCHING OVER TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

BRIEF GLANCE AT THE HYDROLOGY PICTURE SHOWS MOST RIVERS AND
STREAMS BELOW BANKFULL BY A COUPLE OF FEET AND WHILE THE RAINS
WILL INCREASE THE WATER LEVELS NOT ANTICIPATING FLOODING ISSUES AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ027-028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ024.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ020>022-025.
         STRONG WIND FROM 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND FROM 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-022-031>033-036-041-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-034-035-042-051>053.

&&

$$

WESLEY/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









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