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000
FXAK67 PAJK 291352 CCA
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
548 AM AKDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH UPPER
TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE GULF...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE BERING SEA AND A SECOND RIDGE LOCATED OVER
WESTERN CANADA. THE SECOND OF TWO UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AK PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE DAY BRINGING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. AS THE 500 MB
VORT MAX TRACKS NORTHWARD WITH MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STEADIER STRATIFORM RAINFALL SWITCHES TO
MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS COLD AIR FROM THE SOUTH MOVES
IN ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR THE DAY STILL AROUND
1 INCH WITH MODERATE RAIN FALL POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SURFACE LOW
OVER HAIDA GWAII CAN BE SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING
MOVING NORTHWARD. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY WHILE A
LARGER SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN AK GULF RETROGRADES WESTWARDS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PANHANDLE. WINDS FOR
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE
SOUTHERLY PUSH FROM THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD. THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN REGION WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH INCREASING WINDS SPEEDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM THE BUILDING HIGH STRENGTHENS. FOR NOW NOT EXPECTING ANY
SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO DEVELOP BUT WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE. HOWEVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL IS CLOSEST TO
HAVING SMALL CRAFT POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAYTIME
HIGHS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DUE TO PRECIP AND
CLOUD COVER. AS PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS, THUS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE TONIGHT.

BIT MORE MODEL SPREAD FOR SURFACE DETAILS DUE TO THE WEAKENING
FEATURES, BUT STILL GOOD CONSENSUS FOR SYNOPTIC PATTERN. KEPT WITH
A BLEND OF 00Z ECMWF/GEM WHICH RESULTED IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
WIND SPEEDS. OTHER FIELDS SEEM TO STILL BE ON TRACK SO LITTLE
CHANGES WERE MADE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...PATTERN CHANGE IN STORE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE
LOW IN THE GULF THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR WEATHER FOR THE LAST
WEEK WILL RETROGRADE SW INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST/NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS A THERMAL INVERTED TROUGH
PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS WILL CAUSE A WEAK NORTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE INSIDE WATERS AND FAIR WEATHER INTO SATURDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THESE COUPLE DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER AND THE NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD EVEN ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE.
HAVE WARMED HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BUT MAY NEED TO BE WARMED
EVEN MORE IF IT IS SUNNY...THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
CAUSE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOONS WHICH WOULD DAMPER
THOSE HIGHS SLIGHTLY. STRONGEST SEA BREEZES WOULD BE IN PLACES THAT
ALREADY HAVE A NWLY SEA BREEZE LIKE KETCHIKAN, WRANGELL AND SITKA.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MODELS START TO HAVE MORE SPREAD. THE
ECMWF BRINGS RAIN BACK TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE THE
GFS KEEPS US DRY UNTIL THE START OF NEXT WEEK. BLENDING THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS RESULTED IN A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND LESS CONFIDENCE IN THAT PART OF THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VARIABLE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING FROM
THE SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE
STABLE WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IF CLOUD COVER
DISSIPATES MORE RAPIDLY RESULTING IN INCREASED RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND MORE FOG DEVELOPING.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.


$$

PRB/FERRIN











000
FXAK67 PAJK 291352 CCA
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
548 AM AKDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH UPPER
TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE GULF...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE BERING SEA AND A SECOND RIDGE LOCATED OVER
WESTERN CANADA. THE SECOND OF TWO UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AK PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE DAY BRINGING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. AS THE 500 MB
VORT MAX TRACKS NORTHWARD WITH MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STEADIER STRATIFORM RAINFALL SWITCHES TO
MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS COLD AIR FROM THE SOUTH MOVES
IN ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR THE DAY STILL AROUND
1 INCH WITH MODERATE RAIN FALL POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SURFACE LOW
OVER HAIDA GWAII CAN BE SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING
MOVING NORTHWARD. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY WHILE A
LARGER SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN AK GULF RETROGRADES WESTWARDS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PANHANDLE. WINDS FOR
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE
SOUTHERLY PUSH FROM THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD. THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN REGION WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH INCREASING WINDS SPEEDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM THE BUILDING HIGH STRENGTHENS. FOR NOW NOT EXPECTING ANY
SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO DEVELOP BUT WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE. HOWEVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL IS CLOSEST TO
HAVING SMALL CRAFT POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAYTIME
HIGHS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DUE TO PRECIP AND
CLOUD COVER. AS PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS, THUS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE TONIGHT.

BIT MORE MODEL SPREAD FOR SURFACE DETAILS DUE TO THE WEAKENING
FEATURES, BUT STILL GOOD CONSENSUS FOR SYNOPTIC PATTERN. KEPT WITH
A BLEND OF 00Z ECMWF/GEM WHICH RESULTED IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
WIND SPEEDS. OTHER FIELDS SEEM TO STILL BE ON TRACK SO LITTLE
CHANGES WERE MADE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...PATTERN CHANGE IN STORE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE
LOW IN THE GULF THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR WEATHER FOR THE LAST
WEEK WILL RETROGRADE SW INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST/NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS A THERMAL INVERTED TROUGH
PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS WILL CAUSE A WEAK NORTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE INSIDE WATERS AND FAIR WEATHER INTO SATURDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THESE COUPLE DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER AND THE NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD EVEN ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE.
HAVE WARMED HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BUT MAY NEED TO BE WARMED
EVEN MORE IF IT IS SUNNY...THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
CAUSE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOONS WHICH WOULD DAMPER
THOSE HIGHS SLIGHTLY. STRONGEST SEA BREEZES WOULD BE IN PLACES THAT
ALREADY HAVE A NWLY SEA BREEZE LIKE KETCHIKAN, WRANGELL AND SITKA.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MODELS START TO HAVE MORE SPREAD. THE
ECMWF BRINGS RAIN BACK TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE THE
GFS KEEPS US DRY UNTIL THE START OF NEXT WEEK. BLENDING THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS RESULTED IN A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND LESS CONFIDENCE IN THAT PART OF THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VARIABLE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING FROM
THE SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE
STABLE WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IF CLOUD COVER
DISSIPATES MORE RAPIDLY RESULTING IN INCREASED RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND MORE FOG DEVELOPING.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.


$$

PRB/FERRIN












000
FXAK67 PAJK 291348
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
548 AM AKDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH UPPER
TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE GULF...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE BERING SEA AND A SECOND RIDGE LOCATED OVER
WESTERN CANADA. THE SECOND OF TWO UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AK PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE DAY BRINGING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. AS THE 500 MB
VORT MAX TRACKS NORTHWARD WITH MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STEADIER STRATIFORM RAINFALL SWITCHES TO
MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS COLD AIR FROM THE SOUTH MOVES
IN ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR THE DAY STILL AROUND
1 INCH WITH MODERATE RAIN FALL POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SURFACE LOW
OVER HAIDA GWAII CAN BE SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING
MOVING NORTHWARD. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY WHILE A
LARGER SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN AK GULF RETROGRADES WESTWARDS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PANHANDLE. WINDS FOR
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE
SOUTHERLY PUSH FROM THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD. THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN REGION WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH INCREASING WINDS SPEEDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM THE BUILDING HIGH STRENGTHENS. FOR NOW NOT EXPECTING ANY
SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO DEVELOP BUT WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE. HOWEVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL IS CLOSEST TO
HAVING SMALL CRAFT POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAYTIME
HIGHS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DUE TO PRECIP AND
CLOUD COVER. AS PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS, THUS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE TONIGHT.

BIT MORE MODEL SPREAD FOR SURFACE DETAILS DUE TO THE WEAKENING
FEATURES, BUT STILL GOOD CONSENSUS FOR SYNOPTIC PATTERN. KEPT WITH
A BLEND OF 00Z ECMWF/GEM WHICH RESULTED IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
WIND SPEEDS. OTHER FIELDS SEEM TO STILL BE ON TRACK SO LITTLE
CHANGES WERE MADE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

LONG TERM...PATTERN CHANGE IN STORE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE
LOW IN THE GULF THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR WEATHER FOR THE LAST
WEEK WILL RETROGRADE SW INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST/NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS A THERMAL
INVERTED TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
CAUSE A WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE INSIDE WATERS AND FAIR
WEATHER INTO SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THESE
COUPLE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER AND THE NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD EVEN
ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE. HAVE WARMED HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BUT MAY NEED TO BE WARMED EVEN MORE IF IT IS SUNNY...THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOONS WHICH WOULD DAMPER THOSE HIGHS SLIGHTLY. STRONGEST SEA
BREEZES WOULD BE IN PLACES THAT ALREADY HAVE A NWLY SEA BREEZE
LIKE KETCHIKAN, WRANGELL AND SITKA.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MODELS START TO HAVE MORE SPREAD. THE
ECMWF BRINGS RAIN BACK TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE THE
GFS KEEPS US DRY UNTIL THE START OF NEXT WEEK. BLENDING THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS RESULTED IN A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND LESS CONFIDENCE IN THAT PART OF THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VARIABLE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING FROM
THE SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE
STABLE WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IF CLOUD COVER
DISSIPATES MORE RAPIDLY RESULTING IN INCREASED RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND MORE FOG DEVELOPING.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.


$$

PRB/FERRIN








000
FXAK67 PAJK 291348
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
548 AM AKDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH UPPER
TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE GULF...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE BERING SEA AND A SECOND RIDGE LOCATED OVER
WESTERN CANADA. THE SECOND OF TWO UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AK PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE DAY BRINGING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. AS THE 500 MB
VORT MAX TRACKS NORTHWARD WITH MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STEADIER STRATIFORM RAINFALL SWITCHES TO
MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS COLD AIR FROM THE SOUTH MOVES
IN ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR THE DAY STILL AROUND
1 INCH WITH MODERATE RAIN FALL POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SURFACE LOW
OVER HAIDA GWAII CAN BE SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING
MOVING NORTHWARD. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY WHILE A
LARGER SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN AK GULF RETROGRADES WESTWARDS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PANHANDLE. WINDS FOR
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE
SOUTHERLY PUSH FROM THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD. THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN REGION WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH INCREASING WINDS SPEEDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM THE BUILDING HIGH STRENGTHENS. FOR NOW NOT EXPECTING ANY
SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO DEVELOP BUT WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE. HOWEVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL IS CLOSEST TO
HAVING SMALL CRAFT POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAYTIME
HIGHS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DUE TO PRECIP AND
CLOUD COVER. AS PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS, THUS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE TONIGHT.

BIT MORE MODEL SPREAD FOR SURFACE DETAILS DUE TO THE WEAKENING
FEATURES, BUT STILL GOOD CONSENSUS FOR SYNOPTIC PATTERN. KEPT WITH
A BLEND OF 00Z ECMWF/GEM WHICH RESULTED IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
WIND SPEEDS. OTHER FIELDS SEEM TO STILL BE ON TRACK SO LITTLE
CHANGES WERE MADE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

LONG TERM...PATTERN CHANGE IN STORE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE
LOW IN THE GULF THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR WEATHER FOR THE LAST
WEEK WILL RETROGRADE SW INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST/NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS A THERMAL
INVERTED TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
CAUSE A WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE INSIDE WATERS AND FAIR
WEATHER INTO SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THESE
COUPLE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER AND THE NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD EVEN
ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE. HAVE WARMED HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BUT MAY NEED TO BE WARMED EVEN MORE IF IT IS SUNNY...THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOONS WHICH WOULD DAMPER THOSE HIGHS SLIGHTLY. STRONGEST SEA
BREEZES WOULD BE IN PLACES THAT ALREADY HAVE A NWLY SEA BREEZE
LIKE KETCHIKAN, WRANGELL AND SITKA.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MODELS START TO HAVE MORE SPREAD. THE
ECMWF BRINGS RAIN BACK TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE THE
GFS KEEPS US DRY UNTIL THE START OF NEXT WEEK. BLENDING THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS RESULTED IN A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND LESS CONFIDENCE IN THAT PART OF THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VARIABLE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING FROM
THE SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE
STABLE WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IF CLOUD COVER
DISSIPATES MORE RAPIDLY RESULTING IN INCREASED RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND MORE FOG DEVELOPING.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.


$$

PRB/FERRIN









000
FXAK67 PAJK 282351
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
351 PM AKDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE DURING
THE PAST 24 HRS. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE
GULF...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NWD INTO THE BERING SEA AND A
SECOND RIDGE LOCATED OVER WRN CANADA. TWO UPPER IMPULSES ARE
OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH.
ONE IS POISED TO ENTER SE AK BY THIS EVENING BRINGING THE FIRST
ROUND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SECOND IMPULSE
IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE BASE OF THE GULF TROUGH...AND IS
FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PANHANDLE DURING TUE
AFTERNOON. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AOA 1 INCH AS THIS TAKES
PLACE...THUS EXPECT MODERATE RAINFALL RATES TO OCCUR ONCE AGAIN
AS FORCING FOR ASCENT REINVIGORATES WITH THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE.

 AT THE SURFACE...MODEST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MEANWHILE...A SMALLER LOW
IS FORECAST TO LIFT NWD INTO THE SRN-CNTRL PANHANDLE TONIGHT AS
THE FIRST UPPER IMPULSE ENTERS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...30-40 KT
LOW- LEVEL SLY JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS MOMENTUM ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO MIX TO THE SURFACE OVER CLARENCE STRAIT AND AID IN
SMALL CRAFT TO POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS.

 DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON
DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN. UPDATED PRESSURE/WINDS USING A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GEM...WITH MANUAL INCREASE IN SPEEDS OVER
CLARENCE STRAIT IN ORDER TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL SLYS. PREVIOUS POP/SKY FORECAST APPEARED TO BE ON
TRACK...THUS FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.
 &&

.LONG TERM...THIS SECOND IMPULSE DISCUSSED ABOVE CURRENTLY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE PANHANDLE AND BRING IN A LITTLE COOLER AIR
ALOFT...THUS RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT FROM
FAIRWEATHER SOUTH. YAKUTAT WILL ACTUALLY BECOME A LITTLE WETTER AS
THE ENERGY LIFTS NORTHWESTWARD TUESDAY BEFORE EVERYONE BEGINS A
TREND TO DRIER AIR AS THE LARGESCALE LOW BEGINS RETROGRADING TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS TEMPORARY JOG TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW
SKIES TO PART BEGINNING THURSDAY WITH SOME PERIODS OF SUN LIKELY
THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE NORTHERN INTERIOR PANHANDLE. CLOUDS LOOK
TO RE-ENTER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
BEGINS RESPONDING TO A GENTLE NUDGE...PERHAPS BY SOME ENERGY
DIVING DOWNSTREAM INTO MAINLAND ALASKA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING IN CHANCES OF RAIN...MAINLY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE NOT AS GREAT AS LAST
PACKAGE BECAUSE ONLY THE ECMWF NOW GOING WET BONA FIDE. GEM
UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HAS SIDED WITH THE GFS IN KEEPING THE
LARGESCALE LOW IN THE SW GULF. THUS TRENDED DOWN THE LIKELY RAIN
WE HAD FROM LAST NIGHT TO CHANCE OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT LEFT THE
COASTAL 60 PERCENT POPS IN TACT. MODELS COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GFS FINALLY INDICATES THE GULF LOW BEING DRAWN
NORTHEASTWARD BY SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE BROOKS
RANGE.

WINDS LOOK TO INCREASINGLY BECOME BENIGN THROUGH THE MID-RANGE.
DID PERHAPS GET A LITTLE EXCITED BY ADDING A SMALL CRAFT FOR LYNN
CANAL...AS THE ECMWF SHOWING GRADIENTS RISING ABOVE 2 MB THEN...HOWEVER
JET WAS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
MESOSCALE EFFECTS NEGLIGIBLE...SO THIS MAY HAVE BEEN HEAVY-HANDED.
CHANNEL BREEZES MAY BEGIN TO PREDOMINATE THURSDAY AS DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING INCREASES. WHILE CURRENTLY MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
REPRESENTED FOR THURSDAY...MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE HINT OF A
THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PANHANDLE PERHAPS
INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH/WEST TO 10 OR 15 KT. SAVED FOR
LATER AS MODELS IMPROVE AGREEMENT. DID VIOLATE GRADIENT FOR CROSS
SOUND FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS A WESTERLY SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP.
WHILE WE TRENDED TEMPERATURES UPWARD SLIGHTLY...GFS ACTUALLY GOING
70S FOR PARTS FRIDAY, CROSS SOUND WESTERLIES MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED DURING THIS TIME.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON GOOD SIDE OF AVERAGE FOR MOST ISSUES.
RELIED ON ECMWF AS A GUIDE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK PREFERRED GFS/GEM BUT GRADUALLY HEDGED BETS OF DRY WEATHER
EXTENDING INTO EARLY PART OF WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
STUBBORNNESS FROM THE ECMWF THAT IT WILL BE WET ONCE AGAIN.

 &&

 .AVIATION...RAIN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN
PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITY SUBSEQUENTLY
FALLING AS A RESULT. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE YAKUTAT...WHICH WILL
EXPERIENCE THE ONSET OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING.

 &&

 .MARINE...A 30-40 KT SLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO RESIDE
OVER CLARENCE STRAIT TONIGHT...AND WILL AID IN SMALL CRAFT TO
OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 25-35 KT. ELSEWHERE...PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN OVER CROSS SOUND RESULTING IN
SUSTAINED ELY WINDS NEAR SMALL CRAFT STRENGTH. OTHERWISE...NLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM GLACIER BAY INTO LYNN CANAL AND STEPHENS
PASSAGE IS FORECAST TO FLIP TO SLY BY TUE AFTERNOON.

 &&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022.


$$

GARNER/JWA








000
FXAK67 PAJK 282351
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
351 PM AKDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE DURING
THE PAST 24 HRS. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE
GULF...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NWD INTO THE BERING SEA AND A
SECOND RIDGE LOCATED OVER WRN CANADA. TWO UPPER IMPULSES ARE
OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH.
ONE IS POISED TO ENTER SE AK BY THIS EVENING BRINGING THE FIRST
ROUND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SECOND IMPULSE
IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE BASE OF THE GULF TROUGH...AND IS
FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PANHANDLE DURING TUE
AFTERNOON. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AOA 1 INCH AS THIS TAKES
PLACE...THUS EXPECT MODERATE RAINFALL RATES TO OCCUR ONCE AGAIN
AS FORCING FOR ASCENT REINVIGORATES WITH THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE.

 AT THE SURFACE...MODEST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MEANWHILE...A SMALLER LOW
IS FORECAST TO LIFT NWD INTO THE SRN-CNTRL PANHANDLE TONIGHT AS
THE FIRST UPPER IMPULSE ENTERS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...30-40 KT
LOW- LEVEL SLY JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS MOMENTUM ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO MIX TO THE SURFACE OVER CLARENCE STRAIT AND AID IN
SMALL CRAFT TO POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS.

 DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON
DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN. UPDATED PRESSURE/WINDS USING A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GEM...WITH MANUAL INCREASE IN SPEEDS OVER
CLARENCE STRAIT IN ORDER TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL SLYS. PREVIOUS POP/SKY FORECAST APPEARED TO BE ON
TRACK...THUS FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.
 &&

.LONG TERM...THIS SECOND IMPULSE DISCUSSED ABOVE CURRENTLY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE PANHANDLE AND BRING IN A LITTLE COOLER AIR
ALOFT...THUS RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT FROM
FAIRWEATHER SOUTH. YAKUTAT WILL ACTUALLY BECOME A LITTLE WETTER AS
THE ENERGY LIFTS NORTHWESTWARD TUESDAY BEFORE EVERYONE BEGINS A
TREND TO DRIER AIR AS THE LARGESCALE LOW BEGINS RETROGRADING TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS TEMPORARY JOG TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW
SKIES TO PART BEGINNING THURSDAY WITH SOME PERIODS OF SUN LIKELY
THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE NORTHERN INTERIOR PANHANDLE. CLOUDS LOOK
TO RE-ENTER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
BEGINS RESPONDING TO A GENTLE NUDGE...PERHAPS BY SOME ENERGY
DIVING DOWNSTREAM INTO MAINLAND ALASKA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING IN CHANCES OF RAIN...MAINLY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE NOT AS GREAT AS LAST
PACKAGE BECAUSE ONLY THE ECMWF NOW GOING WET BONA FIDE. GEM
UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HAS SIDED WITH THE GFS IN KEEPING THE
LARGESCALE LOW IN THE SW GULF. THUS TRENDED DOWN THE LIKELY RAIN
WE HAD FROM LAST NIGHT TO CHANCE OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT LEFT THE
COASTAL 60 PERCENT POPS IN TACT. MODELS COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GFS FINALLY INDICATES THE GULF LOW BEING DRAWN
NORTHEASTWARD BY SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE BROOKS
RANGE.

WINDS LOOK TO INCREASINGLY BECOME BENIGN THROUGH THE MID-RANGE.
DID PERHAPS GET A LITTLE EXCITED BY ADDING A SMALL CRAFT FOR LYNN
CANAL...AS THE ECMWF SHOWING GRADIENTS RISING ABOVE 2 MB THEN...HOWEVER
JET WAS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
MESOSCALE EFFECTS NEGLIGIBLE...SO THIS MAY HAVE BEEN HEAVY-HANDED.
CHANNEL BREEZES MAY BEGIN TO PREDOMINATE THURSDAY AS DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING INCREASES. WHILE CURRENTLY MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
REPRESENTED FOR THURSDAY...MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE HINT OF A
THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PANHANDLE PERHAPS
INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH/WEST TO 10 OR 15 KT. SAVED FOR
LATER AS MODELS IMPROVE AGREEMENT. DID VIOLATE GRADIENT FOR CROSS
SOUND FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS A WESTERLY SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP.
WHILE WE TRENDED TEMPERATURES UPWARD SLIGHTLY...GFS ACTUALLY GOING
70S FOR PARTS FRIDAY, CROSS SOUND WESTERLIES MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED DURING THIS TIME.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON GOOD SIDE OF AVERAGE FOR MOST ISSUES.
RELIED ON ECMWF AS A GUIDE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK PREFERRED GFS/GEM BUT GRADUALLY HEDGED BETS OF DRY WEATHER
EXTENDING INTO EARLY PART OF WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
STUBBORNNESS FROM THE ECMWF THAT IT WILL BE WET ONCE AGAIN.

 &&

 .AVIATION...RAIN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN
PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITY SUBSEQUENTLY
FALLING AS A RESULT. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE YAKUTAT...WHICH WILL
EXPERIENCE THE ONSET OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING.

 &&

 .MARINE...A 30-40 KT SLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO RESIDE
OVER CLARENCE STRAIT TONIGHT...AND WILL AID IN SMALL CRAFT TO
OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 25-35 KT. ELSEWHERE...PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN OVER CROSS SOUND RESULTING IN
SUSTAINED ELY WINDS NEAR SMALL CRAFT STRENGTH. OTHERWISE...NLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM GLACIER BAY INTO LYNN CANAL AND STEPHENS
PASSAGE IS FORECAST TO FLIP TO SLY BY TUE AFTERNOON.

 &&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022.


$$

GARNER/JWA









000
FXAK67 PAJK 281323
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
523 AM AKDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AK GULF REMAINS IN
PLACE DUE TO BLOCKING PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES EXTENDING
OVER THE ALEUTIANS TO THE WEST AND OVER THE CONUS TO THE EAST. AT
THE SURFACE A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING SHORT WAVES
CYCLONICALLY OVER THE PANHANDLE. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING
SHOWING A 1014 MB LOW IN THE SOUTHERN AK GULF WITH FIRST FRONTAL
BAND MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND A SECOND EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE N PACIFIC. THE FIRST BAND IS MOVING SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION WITH LOW CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF FOG. A
DEVELOPING WAVE ALONG THE SECOND FRONT WILL DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED
LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD DIXON ENTRANCE THIS AFTERNOON. MORE RAIN
WILL MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED WILL
BRING IN 6 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH, HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. NOT EXPECTING THE FOG AND
VERY LOW CLOUD COVER AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BAND.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND COASTAL
WATERS WITH THE ADVANCING LOW THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 30 TO 35 KT 850 MB LLJ. SMALL CRAFT WINDS
OVER CLARENCE STRAIT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND AS OF NOW
THINK LOCATIONS SUCH AS SUMNER STRAIT, THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS AND CROSS SOUND WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT.
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL AGAIN BE SMALL DUE TO THE PRECIP
AND CLOUD COVER.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH MORE
SPREAD FOR SURFACE DETAILS. THE ECMWF/NAM INITIALIZED WELL WITH
THE 00Z RUNS BLENDED INTO INHERITED GRIDS. CHANGES WERE MINOR WITH
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO WIND SPEEDS OVER THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER THAT HAS BEEN CAUSING OUR
WET WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEK BUT OSCILLATE
FROM BEING OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON TUES TO THE SW GULF WED INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST ENERGY
AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST AND
ALLOW FOR SOME MORE BREAKS IN THE RAIN.

ON TUESDAY THE LOW DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION WILL CONTINUE THE
RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE. THEN AS THE LOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SE TO NW AND
BECOME MORE SHOWERY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE DRYING TREND THURS INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE  ECMWF STILL KEEPS SOME
PRECIP AROUND...WHICH IS A BIAS FOR THAT MODEL.

ONLY MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVERALL. LATEST MODELS
HAD A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW IN THE GULF ON TUES AND A STRONGER RIDGE
AS WELL TUE NIGHT OVER THE PANHANDLE SO INCORPORATED THOSE
DIFFERENCES. HOWEVER THE MODELS ALSO HAD LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS OVER
THE GULF. DID NOT WANT TO DECREASE THE SPEEDS THAT MUCH SO LIMITED
CHANGES THERE TO ABOUT 5KTS. OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS HAVE LARGER
DIFFERENCES IN LOW PLACEMENT AND THE NEXT BAND OF RAIN MOVING IN.
HOWEVER BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOWED RAIN MOVING IN ON SUNDAY...SO
INCREASE POPS TO RAIN LIKELY WHERE BOTH MODELS HAD RAIN. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036.


$$

PRB/FERRIN









000
FXAK67 PAJK 272335 AAA
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
335 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...MAJOR UPPER TROF REMAINS ALONG 145W OR SO WHICH IS
SUPPORTING A FEW SURFACE LOW CENTERS IN AND SOUTH OF THE GULF.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS MOIST BUT IR SATELLITE INDICATES A VERY HIGH
PROB OF CONTINUED RAIN...BUT PERIODIC IN THAT PULSES OF RAIN ARE
MOVING IN THE FLOW. WIND IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE MODEL
SPREAD ON HOW TO HANDLE SURFACE DEVELOPMENTS ON THE SOUTH END AND
WHERE THESE WILL TRACK. BEST IDEA HERE IS TO USE A BLEND OF
MODELS TO BRING A WEAK BUT TIGHT SURFACE LOW OFF DIXON ENTRANCE
BY 00Z TUE THEN MOVE IT NORTHWARD. USED 27/12Z GEM NAM AND ECMWF.
CONFIDENCE VERY HIGH ON THE OVERALL WET PATTERN BUT ONLY MODERATE
ON SURFACE LOW AND TRACK.

&&

.LONG TERM...MIDLEVEL VORT LOBE ENTERING THE NRN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF A LONGER WAVE TROUGH
MON AFTERNOON...AND THEN EJECT NEWD TOWARD THE COAST OF SE AK BY
TUE MORNING. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
COMBINED WITH PW VALUES AOA 1 INCH AND STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. IN ADDITION...30+ KT LOW-LEVEL SLY
JET WILL AID IN NEAR SMALL CRAFT WINDS FROM MARINE ZONE 41 INTO
CLARENCE STRAIT MON NIGHT. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED VORT LOBE IS THEN
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NRN PANHANDLE BY WED AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
WILL BEGIN TO DRY IN ITS WAKE...RESULTING IN DECREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLE CLEARING SKIES /PARTICULARLY OVER THE SRN
PANHANDLE/. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS RESULT...WITH
HIGHS POSSIBLY PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER THE SRN
PANHANDLE ON THU AND FRI. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND THEY SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE REGION
SUN INTO MON...WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

A BLEND OF THE GEM/ECMWF/NAM WAS USED TO UPDATE PRESSURE AND WINDS
THROUGH 12Z THU...WITH A TRANSITION TO WPC GUIDANCE USED
THEREAFTER. ENSEMBLE BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR
POP/SKY THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN WPC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM. PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARED TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED UPWARD GOING INTO
THU AND FRI. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR IN THE RAIN WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
TRAPPED MOISTURE FOR IFR CONDS PAPG AND OCCASIONALLY AT PAKT.
LOTS OF SCUD ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MARINE...ENDED SMALL CRAFT EAST OF CAPE SUCKLING AS THAT LOW
PULLS WEST...BUT ELDRED ROCK HANGING AROUND 20 KT MAYBE UP TO
25 KT. WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM HAD TO ADDRESS TIGHT PRESSURE SYSTEM
MON AFTERNOON WITH SUPPORT FROM LOW LEVEL JET. ISSUED SOUTHERN
AREAS OUTSIDE SUMNER AND CLARENCE FOR AT LEAST 25 KT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS FINALLY STARTING TO RESPOND TO RAINFALL.
AFTERNOON TRENDS ARE UPWARD BUT NO FLOODING EXPECTED ANYWHERE AT
THIS TIME IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ035-036-041-052.


$$

JC/GARNER







000
FXAK67 PAJK 272335 AAA
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
335 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...MAJOR UPPER TROF REMAINS ALONG 145W OR SO WHICH IS
SUPPORTING A FEW SURFACE LOW CENTERS IN AND SOUTH OF THE GULF.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS MOIST BUT IR SATELLITE INDICATES A VERY HIGH
PROB OF CONTINUED RAIN...BUT PERIODIC IN THAT PULSES OF RAIN ARE
MOVING IN THE FLOW. WIND IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE MODEL
SPREAD ON HOW TO HANDLE SURFACE DEVELOPMENTS ON THE SOUTH END AND
WHERE THESE WILL TRACK. BEST IDEA HERE IS TO USE A BLEND OF
MODELS TO BRING A WEAK BUT TIGHT SURFACE LOW OFF DIXON ENTRANCE
BY 00Z TUE THEN MOVE IT NORTHWARD. USED 27/12Z GEM NAM AND ECMWF.
CONFIDENCE VERY HIGH ON THE OVERALL WET PATTERN BUT ONLY MODERATE
ON SURFACE LOW AND TRACK.

&&

.LONG TERM...MIDLEVEL VORT LOBE ENTERING THE NRN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF A LONGER WAVE TROUGH
MON AFTERNOON...AND THEN EJECT NEWD TOWARD THE COAST OF SE AK BY
TUE MORNING. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
COMBINED WITH PW VALUES AOA 1 INCH AND STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. IN ADDITION...30+ KT LOW-LEVEL SLY
JET WILL AID IN NEAR SMALL CRAFT WINDS FROM MARINE ZONE 41 INTO
CLARENCE STRAIT MON NIGHT. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED VORT LOBE IS THEN
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NRN PANHANDLE BY WED AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
WILL BEGIN TO DRY IN ITS WAKE...RESULTING IN DECREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLE CLEARING SKIES /PARTICULARLY OVER THE SRN
PANHANDLE/. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS RESULT...WITH
HIGHS POSSIBLY PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER THE SRN
PANHANDLE ON THU AND FRI. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND THEY SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE REGION
SUN INTO MON...WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

A BLEND OF THE GEM/ECMWF/NAM WAS USED TO UPDATE PRESSURE AND WINDS
THROUGH 12Z THU...WITH A TRANSITION TO WPC GUIDANCE USED
THEREAFTER. ENSEMBLE BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR
POP/SKY THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN WPC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM. PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARED TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED UPWARD GOING INTO
THU AND FRI. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR IN THE RAIN WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
TRAPPED MOISTURE FOR IFR CONDS PAPG AND OCCASIONALLY AT PAKT.
LOTS OF SCUD ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MARINE...ENDED SMALL CRAFT EAST OF CAPE SUCKLING AS THAT LOW
PULLS WEST...BUT ELDRED ROCK HANGING AROUND 20 KT MAYBE UP TO
25 KT. WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM HAD TO ADDRESS TIGHT PRESSURE SYSTEM
MON AFTERNOON WITH SUPPORT FROM LOW LEVEL JET. ISSUED SOUTHERN
AREAS OUTSIDE SUMNER AND CLARENCE FOR AT LEAST 25 KT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS FINALLY STARTING TO RESPOND TO RAINFALL.
AFTERNOON TRENDS ARE UPWARD BUT NO FLOODING EXPECTED ANYWHERE AT
THIS TIME IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ035-036-041-052.


$$

JC/GARNER








000
FXAK67 PAJK 272248
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
248 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...MAJOR UPPER TROF REMAINS ALONG 145W OR SO WHICH IS
SUPPORTING A FEW SURFACE LOW CENTERS IN AND SOUTH OF THE GULF.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS MOIST BUT IR SATELLITE INDICATES A VERY HIGH
PROB OF CONTINUED RAIN...BUT PERIODIC IN THAT PULSES OF RAIN ARE
MOVING IN THE FLOW. WIND IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE MODEL
SPREAD ON HOW TO HANDLE SURFACE DEVELOPMENTS ON THE SOUTH END AND
WHERE THESE WILL TRACK. BEST IDEA HERE IS TO USE A BLEND OF
MODELS TO BRING A WEAK BUT TIGHT SURFACE LOW OFF DIXON ENTRANCE
BY 00Z TUE THEN MOVE IT NORTHWARD. USED 27/12Z GEM NAM AND ECMWF.
CONFIDENCE VERY HIGH ON THE OVERALL WET PATTERN BUT ONLY MODERATE
ON SURFACE LOW AND TRACK.

&&

.LONG TERM...MIDLEVEL VORT LOBE ENTERING THE NRN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF A LONGER WAVE TROUGH
MON AFTERNOON...AND THEN EJECT NEWD TOWARD THE COAST OF SE AK BY
TUE MORNING. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
COMBINED WITH PW VALUES AOA 1 INCH AND STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. IN ADDITION...30+ KT LOW-LEVEL SLY
JET WILL AID IN NEAR SMALL CRAFT WINDS FROM MARINE ZONE 41 INTO
CLARENCE STRAIT MON NIGHT. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED VORT LOBE IS THEN
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NRN PANHANDLE BY WED AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
WILL BEGIN TO DRY IN ITS WAKE...RESULTING IN DECREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLE CLEARING SKIES /PARTICULARLY OVER THE SRN
PANHANDLE/. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS RESULT...WITH
HIGHS POSSIBLY PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER THE SRN
PANHANDLE ON THU AND FRI. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND THEY SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE REGION
SUN INTO MON...WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

A BLEND OF THE GEM/ECMWF/NAM WAS USED TO UPDATE PRESSURE AND WINDS
THROUGH 12Z THU...WITH A TRANSITION TO WPC GUIDANCE USED
THEREAFTER. ENSEMBLE BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR
POP/SKY THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN WPC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM. PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARED TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED UPWARD GOING INTO
THU AND FRI. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR IN THE RAIN WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
TRAPPED MOISTURE FOR IFR CONDS PAPG AND OCCASIONALLY AT PAKT.
LOTS OF SCUD ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MARINE...ENDED SMALL CRAFT EAST OF CAPE SUCKLING AS THAT LOW
PULLS WEST...BUT ELDRED ROCK HANGING AROUND 20 KT MAYBE UP TO
25 KT. WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM HAD TO ADDRESS TIGHT PRESSURE SYSTEM
MON AFTERNOON WITH SUPPORT FROM LOW LEVEL JET. ISSUED SOUTHERN
AREAS OUTSIDE SUMNER AND CLARENCE FOR AT LEAST 25 KT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS FINALLY STARTING TO RESPOND TO RAINFALL.
AFTERNOON TRENDS ARE UPWARD BUT NO FLOODING EXPECTED ANYWHERE AT
THIS TIME IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-035-036-041-052.


$$

JC/GARNER









000
FXAK67 PAJK 272248
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
248 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...MAJOR UPPER TROF REMAINS ALONG 145W OR SO WHICH IS
SUPPORTING A FEW SURFACE LOW CENTERS IN AND SOUTH OF THE GULF.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS MOIST BUT IR SATELLITE INDICATES A VERY HIGH
PROB OF CONTINUED RAIN...BUT PERIODIC IN THAT PULSES OF RAIN ARE
MOVING IN THE FLOW. WIND IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE MODEL
SPREAD ON HOW TO HANDLE SURFACE DEVELOPMENTS ON THE SOUTH END AND
WHERE THESE WILL TRACK. BEST IDEA HERE IS TO USE A BLEND OF
MODELS TO BRING A WEAK BUT TIGHT SURFACE LOW OFF DIXON ENTRANCE
BY 00Z TUE THEN MOVE IT NORTHWARD. USED 27/12Z GEM NAM AND ECMWF.
CONFIDENCE VERY HIGH ON THE OVERALL WET PATTERN BUT ONLY MODERATE
ON SURFACE LOW AND TRACK.

&&

.LONG TERM...MIDLEVEL VORT LOBE ENTERING THE NRN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF A LONGER WAVE TROUGH
MON AFTERNOON...AND THEN EJECT NEWD TOWARD THE COAST OF SE AK BY
TUE MORNING. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
COMBINED WITH PW VALUES AOA 1 INCH AND STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. IN ADDITION...30+ KT LOW-LEVEL SLY
JET WILL AID IN NEAR SMALL CRAFT WINDS FROM MARINE ZONE 41 INTO
CLARENCE STRAIT MON NIGHT. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED VORT LOBE IS THEN
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NRN PANHANDLE BY WED AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
WILL BEGIN TO DRY IN ITS WAKE...RESULTING IN DECREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLE CLEARING SKIES /PARTICULARLY OVER THE SRN
PANHANDLE/. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS RESULT...WITH
HIGHS POSSIBLY PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER THE SRN
PANHANDLE ON THU AND FRI. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND THEY SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE REGION
SUN INTO MON...WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

A BLEND OF THE GEM/ECMWF/NAM WAS USED TO UPDATE PRESSURE AND WINDS
THROUGH 12Z THU...WITH A TRANSITION TO WPC GUIDANCE USED
THEREAFTER. ENSEMBLE BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR
POP/SKY THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN WPC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM. PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARED TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED UPWARD GOING INTO
THU AND FRI. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR IN THE RAIN WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
TRAPPED MOISTURE FOR IFR CONDS PAPG AND OCCASIONALLY AT PAKT.
LOTS OF SCUD ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MARINE...ENDED SMALL CRAFT EAST OF CAPE SUCKLING AS THAT LOW
PULLS WEST...BUT ELDRED ROCK HANGING AROUND 20 KT MAYBE UP TO
25 KT. WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM HAD TO ADDRESS TIGHT PRESSURE SYSTEM
MON AFTERNOON WITH SUPPORT FROM LOW LEVEL JET. ISSUED SOUTHERN
AREAS OUTSIDE SUMNER AND CLARENCE FOR AT LEAST 25 KT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS FINALLY STARTING TO RESPOND TO RAINFALL.
AFTERNOON TRENDS ARE UPWARD BUT NO FLOODING EXPECTED ANYWHERE AT
THIS TIME IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-035-036-041-052.


$$

JC/GARNER








000
FXAK67 PAJK 271303
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
503 AM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF INTO LATE
TONIGHT. A SERIES OF SMALL SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW AND THESE WILL AFFECT THE AREA THRU TONIGHT. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES ARE OVER THE NRN GULF AND JUST S OF THE
GULF ATTM. THE NRN GULF SHORTWAVE WILL DRIFT WWD WHILE OTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE SE GULF LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
CONTINUES N THRU THE ERN GULF TONIGHT. THESE SHORTWAVES WILL HAVE
SMALL SFC LOWS WITH THEM. USED THE 00Z ECMWF AS IT HAD BEST
HANDLE ON THESE FEATURES.

 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIP POTENTIAL. RIGHT NOW...BROKEN
AREAS OF PRECIP ARE MOVING N THRU THE PANHANDLE ON E SIDE OF NRN
GULF SHORTWAVE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME DIMINISHING TREND IN
THIS PRECIP TODAY BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR POPS TO DROP MUCH FOR THE
AFTERNOON 6 HR PERIOD. DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THE PRECIP
WENT FOR PERIODS OF RAIN TO HANDLE THIS BATCH OF PRECIP. A MORE
ROBUST PRECIP BAND WILL MOVE N INTO THE SRN PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS
PRECIP SHOULD REACH THE CENTRAL AREA DURING THIS EVENING...AND
MAY REACH THE FAR N OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP WITH THIS BAND SO WILL NOT USE ANY TEMPORAL WORDING WITH
IT. THE PAYA AREA WILL PROBABLY DRY OUT SOME TONIGHT AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE ELY AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE ERN
GULF. HAVE POPS THERE DROPPING OFF TONIGHT TO HANDLE THIS.

 OTHERWISE...MOST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU
TONIGHT. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE OVER CLARENCE STRAIT THIS EVENING AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE...AND
OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF NEAR LOW MOVING WWD THRU THAT AREA TODAY.
TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE TODAY DUE TO THE
PRECIP BUT PERIODIC DRY SPELLS MAY ALLOW THEM TO GET A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER THAN THEY WERE SAT. SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MILD
TONIGHT UNDER PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...WITH MIN TEMPS REMAINING
ABOVE AVERAGE. MAY SEE ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUDS FOR THE PAYA AREA
TO DROP INTO THE  MID-UPPER 40S TONIGHT...WHILE REMAINDER OF AREA
REMAINS IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE TONIGHT.

 .LONG TERM...BLOCKING PATTERN WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGES OVER THE
ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA AND THE WESTERN CONUS/CANADA KEEPING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE AK GULF IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. NEW MODEL RUNS KEEP THE RIDGES
INTACT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS THAT COLLAPSED THEM BY NEXT
SUNDAY. THE SURFACE LOW/SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE AK GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN WAVES OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE AK
PANHANDLE. THE TUESDAY WAVE MAY BRING IN HEAVIER PRECIP,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND WOULD RESULT IN SHARP
RIVER AND STREAM RISES. THROUGH THE WEEK THE SURFACE FEATURES
WILL PULL OFF TO THE WEST WITH DRY BREAKS DEVELOPING. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THE DRY WEATHER WOULD LAST BUT MODELS ARE
STARTING TO FALL MORE IN LINE. BY THE WEEKEND THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS BACK TO THE EAST WITH MORE WET WEATHER ON THE WAY. WINDS
FOLLOW THE PRECIPITATION TREND WITH COASTAL WATER WINDS
INCREASING TO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH EACH ADVANCING WAVE THEN
DIMINISHING AS THESE FEATURES PULL BACK TO THE WEST. KEEPING THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN REGIONS UNDER MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW DUE TO THE
GEOSTROPHIC FLOW WHILE THE NORTHERN REGIONS WILL BE INFLUENCED
MORE BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP KEEPING
SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WITH BELOW NORMAL DAY TIME HIGHS.
MAY SEE MORE OF A WARMING TREND LATER IN THE WEEK FROM THE PRECIP
BREAKS.

 KEPT WITH AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH AS SOME OPERATIONAL MORES SHOWED
MORE SPREAD FOR THE MONDAY/TUESDAY SYSTEMS. BLENDED IN 00Z
GFS/ECMWF WITH INHERITED GRIDS THEN KEPT WITH WPC SOLUTION
THROUGH DY 8. CHANGES WERE MINOR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR
SURFACE FEATURES.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036-052.


$$

RWT/PRB







000
FXAK67 PAJK 271303
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
503 AM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF INTO LATE
TONIGHT. A SERIES OF SMALL SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW AND THESE WILL AFFECT THE AREA THRU TONIGHT. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES ARE OVER THE NRN GULF AND JUST S OF THE
GULF ATTM. THE NRN GULF SHORTWAVE WILL DRIFT WWD WHILE OTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE SE GULF LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
CONTINUES N THRU THE ERN GULF TONIGHT. THESE SHORTWAVES WILL HAVE
SMALL SFC LOWS WITH THEM. USED THE 00Z ECMWF AS IT HAD BEST
HANDLE ON THESE FEATURES.

 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIP POTENTIAL. RIGHT NOW...BROKEN
AREAS OF PRECIP ARE MOVING N THRU THE PANHANDLE ON E SIDE OF NRN
GULF SHORTWAVE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME DIMINISHING TREND IN
THIS PRECIP TODAY BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR POPS TO DROP MUCH FOR THE
AFTERNOON 6 HR PERIOD. DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THE PRECIP
WENT FOR PERIODS OF RAIN TO HANDLE THIS BATCH OF PRECIP. A MORE
ROBUST PRECIP BAND WILL MOVE N INTO THE SRN PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS
PRECIP SHOULD REACH THE CENTRAL AREA DURING THIS EVENING...AND
MAY REACH THE FAR N OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP WITH THIS BAND SO WILL NOT USE ANY TEMPORAL WORDING WITH
IT. THE PAYA AREA WILL PROBABLY DRY OUT SOME TONIGHT AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE ELY AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE ERN
GULF. HAVE POPS THERE DROPPING OFF TONIGHT TO HANDLE THIS.

 OTHERWISE...MOST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU
TONIGHT. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE OVER CLARENCE STRAIT THIS EVENING AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE...AND
OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF NEAR LOW MOVING WWD THRU THAT AREA TODAY.
TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE TODAY DUE TO THE
PRECIP BUT PERIODIC DRY SPELLS MAY ALLOW THEM TO GET A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER THAN THEY WERE SAT. SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MILD
TONIGHT UNDER PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...WITH MIN TEMPS REMAINING
ABOVE AVERAGE. MAY SEE ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUDS FOR THE PAYA AREA
TO DROP INTO THE  MID-UPPER 40S TONIGHT...WHILE REMAINDER OF AREA
REMAINS IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE TONIGHT.

 .LONG TERM...BLOCKING PATTERN WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGES OVER THE
ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA AND THE WESTERN CONUS/CANADA KEEPING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE AK GULF IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. NEW MODEL RUNS KEEP THE RIDGES
INTACT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS THAT COLLAPSED THEM BY NEXT
SUNDAY. THE SURFACE LOW/SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE AK GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN WAVES OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE AK
PANHANDLE. THE TUESDAY WAVE MAY BRING IN HEAVIER PRECIP,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND WOULD RESULT IN SHARP
RIVER AND STREAM RISES. THROUGH THE WEEK THE SURFACE FEATURES
WILL PULL OFF TO THE WEST WITH DRY BREAKS DEVELOPING. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THE DRY WEATHER WOULD LAST BUT MODELS ARE
STARTING TO FALL MORE IN LINE. BY THE WEEKEND THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS BACK TO THE EAST WITH MORE WET WEATHER ON THE WAY. WINDS
FOLLOW THE PRECIPITATION TREND WITH COASTAL WATER WINDS
INCREASING TO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH EACH ADVANCING WAVE THEN
DIMINISHING AS THESE FEATURES PULL BACK TO THE WEST. KEEPING THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN REGIONS UNDER MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW DUE TO THE
GEOSTROPHIC FLOW WHILE THE NORTHERN REGIONS WILL BE INFLUENCED
MORE BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP KEEPING
SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WITH BELOW NORMAL DAY TIME HIGHS.
MAY SEE MORE OF A WARMING TREND LATER IN THE WEEK FROM THE PRECIP
BREAKS.

 KEPT WITH AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH AS SOME OPERATIONAL MORES SHOWED
MORE SPREAD FOR THE MONDAY/TUESDAY SYSTEMS. BLENDED IN 00Z
GFS/ECMWF WITH INHERITED GRIDS THEN KEPT WITH WPC SOLUTION
THROUGH DY 8. CHANGES WERE MINOR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR
SURFACE FEATURES.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036-052.


$$

RWT/PRB








000
FXAK67 PAJK 262327
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
330 PM AKDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE LARGE SCALE LOW THAT SETTLED OVER THE GULF DAYS
AGO IS NEARLY EXACTLY WHERE WE LEFT IT YESTERDAY. THIS LOW SHALL
CRAWL A LITTLE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER PROBABLY
MORE IMPORTANTLY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE GRAZING THE PANHANDLE AND
SUPPORTING BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH MANY OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
INSIDE COMMUNITIES/PASSAGES WILL LIFT NORTHWESTWARD AND ALLOW
WINDS TO START RELAXING THROUGH SUNDAY. RESIDUAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN OVER CLARENCE STRAIT AND FROM CAPE DECISION
TO ICY CAPE THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY CONCERNED WITH CROSS SOUND`S
RISING WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MAKE AN APPROPRIATE
CALL AS ISSUANCE TIME NEARS WHETHER TO BEGIN AS 20 KT OR SCA 25 KT.


STEADY RAIN HAS FALLEN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS
EMBEDDED. HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND AS FRONT PUSHES NORTH...BUT
TRANSITIONED TO PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY AND THE FRONT WEAKENS. THERE JUST MAY BE SOME SHORT DURATIONS
WITHOUT RAIN. HOWEVER, WE STILL WILL CONSIDER IT A WET DAY. QPF
WILL DIMINISH WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE
TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD...WEST OF HAIDA GWAII BY LATE SUNDAY.
KETCHIKAN THE BIG WINNER SO FAR IN RAIN LAST PERIOD...WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN REPORTED AT TIMES. THIS SHOULD SLACKEN
THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURE RANGE STILL RELATIVELY SMALL. FOR THE MOST PART UPPER
50S TO 60 FOR HIGHS AND LOW/MID 50S FOR LOWS.

NAM AND ECWMF SERVED AS A GUIDE FOR PRES/WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING WITH GEM REPLACING NAM FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. USED ECWMF
FOR POPS/QPF. FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOOD.
&&

.LONG TERM...MAJOR UPPER LOW COMPLEX OVER INTERIOR AK INTO GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ALONG 145W OR SO WITH A WEAK JET ON THE
WESTERN SIDE. WE HAVE SEEN THIS PATTERN BEFORE DURING THIS SUMMER
AND EXPECT TO SEE IT AGAIN. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE STRONGER UPPER
LOW CENTER DEVELOPING AROUND 52N AND THIS CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE
TO DIRECT MOISTURE OVER THE PANHANDLE. HARD TO FORECAST ANY BREAKS
BUT GUIDANCE TRIES TO DRY THINGS OUT WED AND THU FOR MOST PLACES SO
FOLLOWED ALONG. PREFERRED MODELS ARE 26/12Z ECMWF AND GFS WITH SOME
HELP FROM OTHERS. KEPT TEMPS AROUND CLIMO AS PER SHORT TERM DUE TO
RANGES EXPECTED TO BE SMALL.
&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ031-035-036-041>043-051.

$$
JWA/JC





000
FXAK67 PAJK 262327
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
330 PM AKDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE LARGE SCALE LOW THAT SETTLED OVER THE GULF DAYS
AGO IS NEARLY EXACTLY WHERE WE LEFT IT YESTERDAY. THIS LOW SHALL
CRAWL A LITTLE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER PROBABLY
MORE IMPORTANTLY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE GRAZING THE PANHANDLE AND
SUPPORTING BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH MANY OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
INSIDE COMMUNITIES/PASSAGES WILL LIFT NORTHWESTWARD AND ALLOW
WINDS TO START RELAXING THROUGH SUNDAY. RESIDUAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN OVER CLARENCE STRAIT AND FROM CAPE DECISION
TO ICY CAPE THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY CONCERNED WITH CROSS SOUND`S
RISING WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MAKE AN APPROPRIATE
CALL AS ISSUANCE TIME NEARS WHETHER TO BEGIN AS 20 KT OR SCA 25 KT.


STEADY RAIN HAS FALLEN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS
EMBEDDED. HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND AS FRONT PUSHES NORTH...BUT
TRANSITIONED TO PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY AND THE FRONT WEAKENS. THERE JUST MAY BE SOME SHORT DURATIONS
WITHOUT RAIN. HOWEVER, WE STILL WILL CONSIDER IT A WET DAY. QPF
WILL DIMINISH WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE
TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD...WEST OF HAIDA GWAII BY LATE SUNDAY.
KETCHIKAN THE BIG WINNER SO FAR IN RAIN LAST PERIOD...WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN REPORTED AT TIMES. THIS SHOULD SLACKEN
THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURE RANGE STILL RELATIVELY SMALL. FOR THE MOST PART UPPER
50S TO 60 FOR HIGHS AND LOW/MID 50S FOR LOWS.

NAM AND ECWMF SERVED AS A GUIDE FOR PRES/WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING WITH GEM REPLACING NAM FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. USED ECWMF
FOR POPS/QPF. FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOOD.
&&

.LONG TERM...MAJOR UPPER LOW COMPLEX OVER INTERIOR AK INTO GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ALONG 145W OR SO WITH A WEAK JET ON THE
WESTERN SIDE. WE HAVE SEEN THIS PATTERN BEFORE DURING THIS SUMMER
AND EXPECT TO SEE IT AGAIN. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE STRONGER UPPER
LOW CENTER DEVELOPING AROUND 52N AND THIS CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE
TO DIRECT MOISTURE OVER THE PANHANDLE. HARD TO FORECAST ANY BREAKS
BUT GUIDANCE TRIES TO DRY THINGS OUT WED AND THU FOR MOST PLACES SO
FOLLOWED ALONG. PREFERRED MODELS ARE 26/12Z ECMWF AND GFS WITH SOME
HELP FROM OTHERS. KEPT TEMPS AROUND CLIMO AS PER SHORT TERM DUE TO
RANGES EXPECTED TO BE SMALL.
&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ031-035-036-041>043-051.

$$
JWA/JC






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