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000
FXAK67 PAJK 110134
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
434 PM AKST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PANHANDLE TODAY WITH
BANDS OF MOISTURE FROM AN OLD FRONT OVER THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
PLUS AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING INTO DIXON ENTRANCE AS OF THIS
WRITING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DETECTION REVEALS A
CLUSTER OF CELLS AROUND 50N 140W AS OF 3 PM WHICH IF HOLDING
TOGETHER WILL MOVE INTO OUR OFFSHORE WATERS. SNOW HAS ALSO KEPT UP
FOR THE HAINES AREA TODAY BUT WET STUFF.

FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY ARE THE SPEED OF ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS AND
DEVILISH DETAILS IN THEM. THE 10/12Z NAM WAS CONSISTENT WITH A WAVE
DEVELOPING ON THE ONE OF THE SERIES OF FRONTS COMING UP WITH A GALE
FORCE LOW THAT BACKS INTO THE WESTERN GULF. 10/18Z NAM QPF
FORECASTS A BREAK THU AFTERNOON BUT KEPT CHANCES IN THERE CAUSE ALL
OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE SO WET WITH NO COLD DRY AIR IN SIGHT.
CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC TIMING IS POOR.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS RANGED FROM VFR TO LIFR TODAY WITH PROBLEMS DUE TO
TRAPPED MOISTURE OR PERSISTENT PRECIP. HELD ONTO AT LEAST MVFR
TONIGHT AND INTRODUCE LLWS WITH THE UNCERTAIN TIMING OF THE THE
FRONT IN DIXON ENTRANCE. MODELS FORECASTED A LOW LEVEL JET FOR THE
HINT OF LLWS. POOR CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SO KEEP CHECKING FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.MARINE...RESPECTED THE WAVE COMING UP ALONG 140W TONIGHT SO MOVED
GALE FORCE SE WIND ALONG WITH IT. SEAS ARE BIG AND REMAIN BIG.
OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION THU AFTERNOON DUE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM
COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH. CONFIDENCE MODERATE ON THE GALES.

&&

.LONG TERM...NO BIG CHANGES IN THE LONG RANGE PATTERN WITH THE
GULF REMAINING ACTIVE WITH ONE WEATHER SYSTEM AFTER ANOTHER. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER GULF NOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH WITH THE LOW
CENTER MOVING NW OVER THE GULF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE
REFLECTION IS BEING HANDLED WELL BY THE NAM/GFS/GEM WITH THE EC
WEAKENING THE LOW MUCH FASTER. THERE IS A BUNCH OF LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF THAT WILL TRACK NORTH
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES MAY SUSTAIN THE STRONG CONVECTION INTO THE GULF AND POSSIBLE
COASTAL AREAS BY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE GULF
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD GALES OVER THE GULF WITH SOME
HIGHER WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THE INNER CHANNELS WILL
SEE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AS THE FRONT APPROACHES BUT AS
THE SLIDES TO THE WEST THE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE E/S FROM N/S
SO THERE WILL BE DECREASE IN THE NORTHERN WINDS AND SWITCH TO A
LIGHT SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE CAT PRECIP WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH WITH LIKELY TO CAT POPS PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS AREA ON THE MILD SIDE SO FOR THE MOST PART THE PRECIP WILL
BE IN A LIQUID FORM BUT THE HIGHWAYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR INTERIOR
VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME SNOW.

INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THE PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEM MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SW.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THAT SOME COOLER AIR
MAY MOVE OVER THE AREA BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON THAT
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL THERE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST PACKAGE.



&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-021-022-031-033>036-053.
&&

$$

JC/ABJ

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU




000
FXAK67 PAJK 110134
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
434 PM AKST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PANHANDLE TODAY WITH
BANDS OF MOISTURE FROM AN OLD FRONT OVER THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
PLUS AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING INTO DIXON ENTRANCE AS OF THIS
WRITING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DETECTION REVEALS A
CLUSTER OF CELLS AROUND 50N 140W AS OF 3 PM WHICH IF HOLDING
TOGETHER WILL MOVE INTO OUR OFFSHORE WATERS. SNOW HAS ALSO KEPT UP
FOR THE HAINES AREA TODAY BUT WET STUFF.

FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY ARE THE SPEED OF ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS AND
DEVILISH DETAILS IN THEM. THE 10/12Z NAM WAS CONSISTENT WITH A WAVE
DEVELOPING ON THE ONE OF THE SERIES OF FRONTS COMING UP WITH A GALE
FORCE LOW THAT BACKS INTO THE WESTERN GULF. 10/18Z NAM QPF
FORECASTS A BREAK THU AFTERNOON BUT KEPT CHANCES IN THERE CAUSE ALL
OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE SO WET WITH NO COLD DRY AIR IN SIGHT.
CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC TIMING IS POOR.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS RANGED FROM VFR TO LIFR TODAY WITH PROBLEMS DUE TO
TRAPPED MOISTURE OR PERSISTENT PRECIP. HELD ONTO AT LEAST MVFR
TONIGHT AND INTRODUCE LLWS WITH THE UNCERTAIN TIMING OF THE THE
FRONT IN DIXON ENTRANCE. MODELS FORECASTED A LOW LEVEL JET FOR THE
HINT OF LLWS. POOR CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SO KEEP CHECKING FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.MARINE...RESPECTED THE WAVE COMING UP ALONG 140W TONIGHT SO MOVED
GALE FORCE SE WIND ALONG WITH IT. SEAS ARE BIG AND REMAIN BIG.
OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION THU AFTERNOON DUE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM
COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH. CONFIDENCE MODERATE ON THE GALES.

&&

.LONG TERM...NO BIG CHANGES IN THE LONG RANGE PATTERN WITH THE
GULF REMAINING ACTIVE WITH ONE WEATHER SYSTEM AFTER ANOTHER. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER GULF NOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH WITH THE LOW
CENTER MOVING NW OVER THE GULF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE
REFLECTION IS BEING HANDLED WELL BY THE NAM/GFS/GEM WITH THE EC
WEAKENING THE LOW MUCH FASTER. THERE IS A BUNCH OF LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF THAT WILL TRACK NORTH
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES MAY SUSTAIN THE STRONG CONVECTION INTO THE GULF AND POSSIBLE
COASTAL AREAS BY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE GULF
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD GALES OVER THE GULF WITH SOME
HIGHER WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THE INNER CHANNELS WILL
SEE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AS THE FRONT APPROACHES BUT AS
THE SLIDES TO THE WEST THE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE E/S FROM N/S
SO THERE WILL BE DECREASE IN THE NORTHERN WINDS AND SWITCH TO A
LIGHT SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE CAT PRECIP WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH WITH LIKELY TO CAT POPS PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS AREA ON THE MILD SIDE SO FOR THE MOST PART THE PRECIP WILL
BE IN A LIQUID FORM BUT THE HIGHWAYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR INTERIOR
VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME SNOW.

INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THE PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEM MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SW.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THAT SOME COOLER AIR
MAY MOVE OVER THE AREA BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON THAT
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL THERE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST PACKAGE.



&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-021-022-031-033>036-053.
&&

$$

JC/ABJ

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU





000
FXAK67 PAJK 110134
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
434 PM AKST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PANHANDLE TODAY WITH
BANDS OF MOISTURE FROM AN OLD FRONT OVER THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
PLUS AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING INTO DIXON ENTRANCE AS OF THIS
WRITING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DETECTION REVEALS A
CLUSTER OF CELLS AROUND 50N 140W AS OF 3 PM WHICH IF HOLDING
TOGETHER WILL MOVE INTO OUR OFFSHORE WATERS. SNOW HAS ALSO KEPT UP
FOR THE HAINES AREA TODAY BUT WET STUFF.

FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY ARE THE SPEED OF ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS AND
DEVILISH DETAILS IN THEM. THE 10/12Z NAM WAS CONSISTENT WITH A WAVE
DEVELOPING ON THE ONE OF THE SERIES OF FRONTS COMING UP WITH A GALE
FORCE LOW THAT BACKS INTO THE WESTERN GULF. 10/18Z NAM QPF
FORECASTS A BREAK THU AFTERNOON BUT KEPT CHANCES IN THERE CAUSE ALL
OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE SO WET WITH NO COLD DRY AIR IN SIGHT.
CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC TIMING IS POOR.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS RANGED FROM VFR TO LIFR TODAY WITH PROBLEMS DUE TO
TRAPPED MOISTURE OR PERSISTENT PRECIP. HELD ONTO AT LEAST MVFR
TONIGHT AND INTRODUCE LLWS WITH THE UNCERTAIN TIMING OF THE THE
FRONT IN DIXON ENTRANCE. MODELS FORECASTED A LOW LEVEL JET FOR THE
HINT OF LLWS. POOR CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SO KEEP CHECKING FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.MARINE...RESPECTED THE WAVE COMING UP ALONG 140W TONIGHT SO MOVED
GALE FORCE SE WIND ALONG WITH IT. SEAS ARE BIG AND REMAIN BIG.
OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION THU AFTERNOON DUE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM
COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH. CONFIDENCE MODERATE ON THE GALES.

&&

.LONG TERM...NO BIG CHANGES IN THE LONG RANGE PATTERN WITH THE
GULF REMAINING ACTIVE WITH ONE WEATHER SYSTEM AFTER ANOTHER. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER GULF NOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH WITH THE LOW
CENTER MOVING NW OVER THE GULF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE
REFLECTION IS BEING HANDLED WELL BY THE NAM/GFS/GEM WITH THE EC
WEAKENING THE LOW MUCH FASTER. THERE IS A BUNCH OF LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF THAT WILL TRACK NORTH
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES MAY SUSTAIN THE STRONG CONVECTION INTO THE GULF AND POSSIBLE
COASTAL AREAS BY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE GULF
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD GALES OVER THE GULF WITH SOME
HIGHER WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THE INNER CHANNELS WILL
SEE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AS THE FRONT APPROACHES BUT AS
THE SLIDES TO THE WEST THE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE E/S FROM N/S
SO THERE WILL BE DECREASE IN THE NORTHERN WINDS AND SWITCH TO A
LIGHT SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE CAT PRECIP WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH WITH LIKELY TO CAT POPS PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS AREA ON THE MILD SIDE SO FOR THE MOST PART THE PRECIP WILL
BE IN A LIQUID FORM BUT THE HIGHWAYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR INTERIOR
VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME SNOW.

INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THE PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEM MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SW.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THAT SOME COOLER AIR
MAY MOVE OVER THE AREA BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON THAT
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL THERE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST PACKAGE.



&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-021-022-031-033>036-053.
&&

$$

JC/ABJ

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU





000
FXAK67 PAJK 101513
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
613 AM AKST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...THE COMPLICATED PATTERN CONTINUES. ONE FRONT LIES
STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA FROM THE FAR NORTHERN GULF
SOUTHEAST TO KETCHIKAN. RAIN BANDS HAVE BEEN MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES FOR THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS BUT AS THE RAIN SPREADS
FARTHER NORTH OFFSHORE FLOW INHIBITS AMOUNTS. DRAINAGE WINDS OUT
OF THE CHILKAT VALLEY HAVE FORMED A COLD AIR WEDGE TO THE NORTH
THAT IS KEEPING PRECIPITATION SNOW IN HAINES. BUT WARMING THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP ERODE THIS LOCAL COLD AIR DOME THIS
AFTERNOON TO ALLOW A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN NEAR LYNN CANAL. THE
HIGHWAY THOUGH COULD RECEIVE AN INCH TODAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
1 TO 3 INCHES TONIGHT. THE SIMPLE FORECAST OF RAIN TODAY BELIES
SOME COMPLEXITY WHICH WE WILL ATTEMPT TO EXPLAIN. THE FIRST FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS MORNING. BUT A SECOND
FRONT FOLLOWS QUICKLY ON ITS HEALS TO BRING MORE RAIN FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREADING NORTHWARD QUICKLY
INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...FOR THE
NORTH WE EXPRESS THE RAIN AS DIMINISHING THIS MORNING...WHILE
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH LIKE PRINCE OF WALES WE HAVE RAIN
ENDING...THEN REDEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. SO FOR THOSE IN THE
SOUTH, WE EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN THIS MORNING WITH MORE
ON THE WAY IN THE AFTERNOON. AND FOR THE NORTH...WE EXPECT A BREAK
AROUND LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-DAY WITH RAIN POSSIBLY
REDEVELOPING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH IS WHY WE DID NOT WANT
TO REMOVE IT ENTIRELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE SECOND FRONT WILL HERALD AT LEAST SOME WEAK COOLING ALOFT AND
WILL SUPPORT A CHANGE IN CHARACTER OF THE RAINFALL TO SHOWERS.
MEANWHILE A THIRD DISTURBANCE OR FRONT MAY ACTUALLY SUPPORT A
SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND INCREASE
WINDS TO GALE ALONG THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE COASTLINE LATE TONIGHT.

WIND FORECAST FOR THE INSIDE HAS ESSENTIALLY NOT CHANGED MUCH. WE
INCREASED SOME SOUTHERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT AND SPREAD GALES ALONG THE
OFFSHORE WATERS FARTHER NORTH IN LINE WITH THE GFS/GEM OVER THE
SLOWER NAM/GEM SOLUTION FROM YESTERDAY.

TEMPERATURE ONCE AGAIN PROVIDED SOME HEADACHES. METLAKATLA REACHED
61 DEGREES YESTERDAY. OOPS...WE WERE 9 DEGREES OFF IN YESTERDAY`S
FORECAST. SITKA AND KLAWOCK LOOK TO HAVE BROKEN DAILY RECORDS. WE
DID NOT DEVIATE TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH FROM FORECAST AS THE RAPID
WARM AIR ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE BEHIND US...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL REMAIN VERY MILD TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DROP
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH OTHER THAN THE HIGHWAYS, WE DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING.

USED GFS/GEM FOR GUIDANCE TODAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...A VERY LARGE AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND KEEP THE PANHANDLE WET FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK. THE UPPER LOW WILL BREAK DOWN BY EARLY THIS
WEEKEND...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER SUCH FEATURE THAT WILL
MOVE IN FROM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS ON SUNDAY. A VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FRONT THAT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST ALASKA
SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
FRONT BUT THEN DIVERGE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND
FRONT TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF ON SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR AND THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST FEATURES DAYTIME
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS CORRESPONDINGLY HIGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, SNOW WILL BE LIMITED PRIMARILY TO THE FAR NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS AND THE HYDER AREA OF MISTY FJORDS.

FREQUENT FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL RESULT IN GALES OVER THE COASTAL
MARINE ZONES FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ALSO HAVE SOME GALES
FOR PORTIONS OF THE INNER CHANNELS...PARTICULARLY FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT.

USED BLENDS OF NAM, GFS22, THE CANADIAN NH AND ECMWF FOR UPDATES
TO PRESSURE, POP, QPF AND WIND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
UPDATED PRIMARILY WITH GFS MOS. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-022-033-036-052-053.
&&

$$

JWA/FRITSCH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU





000
FXAK67 PAJK 100111
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
411 PM AKST TUE FEB 9 2016


.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE IS RAPIDLY KICKING OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH ACCOUNTED FOR THE DRY WEATHER TODAY. THE
SKIES PARTIALLY CLEARED IN LOTS OF LOCATIONS ONLY TO HAVE RADIATION
FOG FORM ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS AFTER ALL THAT RAIN
YESTERDAY. FEAR NOT...ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE AND WIND IS ON ITS
WAY FROM THE SOUTH ALTHOUGH WITH MUCH LESS MOISTURE THAN THE LAST
SHOT. THE STORM FORCE LOW AGAIN WELL TO THE SW WILL TRACK WELL OUT
TO SEA BUT THE FRONT LIKE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF
TONIGHT WILL HAVE SOME ENERGY. MODEL PREFERRED AND USED IS THE
09/12Z NAM WITH CONFIDENCE MODERATE. SNOW CALLS WERE TOUGH IN THE
UPPER LYNN CANAL AREA BUT NOT STARTING UNTIL LATE.

.AVIATION...IFR FOG FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS HAS BEEN TOO
PERSISTENT ALL DAY BUT FINALLY A LITTLE WINDS HAS MIXED IT OUT
ALL BUT A FEW LOCATIONS OFF AIRPORTS. HIGH CLOUDS NOW BUT METHINKS
MVFR CONDS IN RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND WED WITH SOME LLWS IN THE USUAL
LOCATIONS. THE FLYING BREAK THAT I THOUGHT YESTERDAY WAS RUINED BY
THE PERSISTENT FOG.

.MARINE...CAPE SPENCER IS ALREADY INCREASING FROM THE NORTHEAST AND
A BAND OF GALE FORCE OUTFLOW IS FORECASTED THERE TONIGHT. OUTFLOW
WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM TONIGHT FOR ANYONE VENTURING OUT IN YAKUTAT
BAY. SEAS REMAIN BIG AND WILL GET BIGGER ON WED DUE TO FETCH.

&&

.LONG TERM...NO BIG CHANGES IN THE LONG RANGE PATTERN WITH A UPPER
TROF REMAINING IN THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE MAIN PARENT LOW. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SERIES OF WEATHER FRONTS
THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS THAT WILL MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE PRECIP FOR THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE
MILD SIDE BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
IN THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND NEAR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER
THE GULF AND COASTAL AREAS. THE NAM AND GEM ARE DEVELOPING A WAVE
AS THE LOW OVER THE GULF AT THE START OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD
DRIFTS WESTWARD. THIS WAVE IS FORECASTED TO DEEPEN TO UPPER 990S
AND ROTATE ALONG 140W. THIS DEVELOPING LOW HAS THE CHANCE OF
PRODUCING SOME VERY STRONG WINDS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN
GULF. AT THIS TIME INCREASED THE WINDS TO MIN GALES WITH SOME
LOCALIZED GUSTS FOR ZONES 23 AND 27. LATER SHIFTS SHOULD KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS FEATURE.

USED A MIXED OF THE NAM AND GEM WITH SOME 12Z EC IN THE MID RANGE
THEN USED WPC TO REFRESH THE LONG RANGE PORTION. OVERALL THERE IS
ABOUT AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-036-043.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-033>035-041-042-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.
&&

$$

JC/ABJ

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU





000
FXAK67 PAJK 100111
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
411 PM AKST TUE FEB 9 2016


.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE IS RAPIDLY KICKING OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH ACCOUNTED FOR THE DRY WEATHER TODAY. THE
SKIES PARTIALLY CLEARED IN LOTS OF LOCATIONS ONLY TO HAVE RADIATION
FOG FORM ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS AFTER ALL THAT RAIN
YESTERDAY. FEAR NOT...ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE AND WIND IS ON ITS
WAY FROM THE SOUTH ALTHOUGH WITH MUCH LESS MOISTURE THAN THE LAST
SHOT. THE STORM FORCE LOW AGAIN WELL TO THE SW WILL TRACK WELL OUT
TO SEA BUT THE FRONT LIKE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF
TONIGHT WILL HAVE SOME ENERGY. MODEL PREFERRED AND USED IS THE
09/12Z NAM WITH CONFIDENCE MODERATE. SNOW CALLS WERE TOUGH IN THE
UPPER LYNN CANAL AREA BUT NOT STARTING UNTIL LATE.

.AVIATION...IFR FOG FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS HAS BEEN TOO
PERSISTENT ALL DAY BUT FINALLY A LITTLE WINDS HAS MIXED IT OUT
ALL BUT A FEW LOCATIONS OFF AIRPORTS. HIGH CLOUDS NOW BUT METHINKS
MVFR CONDS IN RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND WED WITH SOME LLWS IN THE USUAL
LOCATIONS. THE FLYING BREAK THAT I THOUGHT YESTERDAY WAS RUINED BY
THE PERSISTENT FOG.

.MARINE...CAPE SPENCER IS ALREADY INCREASING FROM THE NORTHEAST AND
A BAND OF GALE FORCE OUTFLOW IS FORECASTED THERE TONIGHT. OUTFLOW
WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM TONIGHT FOR ANYONE VENTURING OUT IN YAKUTAT
BAY. SEAS REMAIN BIG AND WILL GET BIGGER ON WED DUE TO FETCH.

&&

.LONG TERM...NO BIG CHANGES IN THE LONG RANGE PATTERN WITH A UPPER
TROF REMAINING IN THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE MAIN PARENT LOW. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SERIES OF WEATHER FRONTS
THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS THAT WILL MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE PRECIP FOR THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE
MILD SIDE BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
IN THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND NEAR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER
THE GULF AND COASTAL AREAS. THE NAM AND GEM ARE DEVELOPING A WAVE
AS THE LOW OVER THE GULF AT THE START OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD
DRIFTS WESTWARD. THIS WAVE IS FORECASTED TO DEEPEN TO UPPER 990S
AND ROTATE ALONG 140W. THIS DEVELOPING LOW HAS THE CHANCE OF
PRODUCING SOME VERY STRONG WINDS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN
GULF. AT THIS TIME INCREASED THE WINDS TO MIN GALES WITH SOME
LOCALIZED GUSTS FOR ZONES 23 AND 27. LATER SHIFTS SHOULD KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS FEATURE.

USED A MIXED OF THE NAM AND GEM WITH SOME 12Z EC IN THE MID RANGE
THEN USED WPC TO REFRESH THE LONG RANGE PORTION. OVERALL THERE IS
ABOUT AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-036-043.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-033>035-041-042-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.
&&

$$

JC/ABJ

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU




000
FXAK67 PAJK 100111
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
411 PM AKST TUE FEB 9 2016


.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE IS RAPIDLY KICKING OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH ACCOUNTED FOR THE DRY WEATHER TODAY. THE
SKIES PARTIALLY CLEARED IN LOTS OF LOCATIONS ONLY TO HAVE RADIATION
FOG FORM ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS AFTER ALL THAT RAIN
YESTERDAY. FEAR NOT...ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE AND WIND IS ON ITS
WAY FROM THE SOUTH ALTHOUGH WITH MUCH LESS MOISTURE THAN THE LAST
SHOT. THE STORM FORCE LOW AGAIN WELL TO THE SW WILL TRACK WELL OUT
TO SEA BUT THE FRONT LIKE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF
TONIGHT WILL HAVE SOME ENERGY. MODEL PREFERRED AND USED IS THE
09/12Z NAM WITH CONFIDENCE MODERATE. SNOW CALLS WERE TOUGH IN THE
UPPER LYNN CANAL AREA BUT NOT STARTING UNTIL LATE.

.AVIATION...IFR FOG FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS HAS BEEN TOO
PERSISTENT ALL DAY BUT FINALLY A LITTLE WINDS HAS MIXED IT OUT
ALL BUT A FEW LOCATIONS OFF AIRPORTS. HIGH CLOUDS NOW BUT METHINKS
MVFR CONDS IN RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND WED WITH SOME LLWS IN THE USUAL
LOCATIONS. THE FLYING BREAK THAT I THOUGHT YESTERDAY WAS RUINED BY
THE PERSISTENT FOG.

.MARINE...CAPE SPENCER IS ALREADY INCREASING FROM THE NORTHEAST AND
A BAND OF GALE FORCE OUTFLOW IS FORECASTED THERE TONIGHT. OUTFLOW
WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM TONIGHT FOR ANYONE VENTURING OUT IN YAKUTAT
BAY. SEAS REMAIN BIG AND WILL GET BIGGER ON WED DUE TO FETCH.

&&

.LONG TERM...NO BIG CHANGES IN THE LONG RANGE PATTERN WITH A UPPER
TROF REMAINING IN THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE MAIN PARENT LOW. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SERIES OF WEATHER FRONTS
THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS THAT WILL MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE PRECIP FOR THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE
MILD SIDE BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
IN THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND NEAR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER
THE GULF AND COASTAL AREAS. THE NAM AND GEM ARE DEVELOPING A WAVE
AS THE LOW OVER THE GULF AT THE START OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD
DRIFTS WESTWARD. THIS WAVE IS FORECASTED TO DEEPEN TO UPPER 990S
AND ROTATE ALONG 140W. THIS DEVELOPING LOW HAS THE CHANCE OF
PRODUCING SOME VERY STRONG WINDS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN
GULF. AT THIS TIME INCREASED THE WINDS TO MIN GALES WITH SOME
LOCALIZED GUSTS FOR ZONES 23 AND 27. LATER SHIFTS SHOULD KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS FEATURE.

USED A MIXED OF THE NAM AND GEM WITH SOME 12Z EC IN THE MID RANGE
THEN USED WPC TO REFRESH THE LONG RANGE PORTION. OVERALL THERE IS
ABOUT AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-036-043.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-033>035-041-042-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.
&&

$$

JC/ABJ

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU





000
FXAK67 PAJK 091445
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
545 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...A TIGHTLY WOUND GALE FORCE LOW CHURNED NORTH THROUGH
THE EASTERN GULF YESTERDAY EVENING AND HOPPED INLAND TO THE
CANADIAN YUKON OVERNIGHT. WINDS RESPONDED IN AN EXCITING WAY
THROUGH THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. CAPE SPENCER EXPERIENCED
HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS (75 KT) OUT OF THE WEST LATE YESTERDAY
EVENING. NORTHERN LYNN CANAL REPORTED GALE FORCE SOUTHERLIES A
FEW HOURS LATER. FINALLY...SKAGWAY`S LIGHT NORTHERLIES FLIPPED TO
SOUTHERLY AND BEGAN GUSTING TO 50 MPH AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THAT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOSED INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BE PUSHED NORTHWARD THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
A GALE FORCE FRONT REACHING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TO PULL NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

WINDS ARE ALREADY SHIFTING TO NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
WE EXPECT WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO RE-SWITCH TO
NORTH AFTER THE BIG SOUTHERLY CHANGEOVER OVERNIGHT A FEW HOURS
FROM NOW THIS MORNING. GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON AND
LIKELY MAXIMIZE THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADIENTS BECOME ORIENTED MORE
PARALLEL TO NORTH-SOUTH CHANNELS LATE TONIGHT. THUS THE STRONGEST
NORTHERLIES/EASTERLIES WILL LIKELY PEAK THIS EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AND STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS THE FRONT BRUSHES
SOUTHEAST`S OUTER ISLANDS. AT THIS POINT WE HAVE KEPT ALL OF OUR
CUSTOMARY TRIGGER POINTS: DOWNTOWN JUNEAU...WESTERN PRINCE OF
WALES ISLAND...THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS...BARANOF ISLAND ALL
UNDER 40 MPH GUSTS. WINDS AT 925 MB DO REACH 45 KT TO BE
SURE...BUT THE WARMTH ARRIVING WITH THIS WAVE WILL HAVE A TENDENCY
TO KEEP THESE WINDS ALOFT.

THE WARMTH OF FEBRUARY 8TH WAS RECORD-BREAKING. KLAWOCK AND
JUNEAU BOTH EXPERIENCED RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. RECORD-BREAKING
WARMTH GENERALLY CAUSES ISSUES FOR GUIDANCE RESOURCES, AS RECORDS
ARE THERE FOR A REASON, AND GUIDANCE LIKE MANY PEOPLE HAVE
DIFFICULTY COPING WITH NEW SITUATIONS. AT THIS POINT, WE FEEL THAT
GIVEN THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERLY
PUSH AHEAD OF LAST NIGHT`S SURFACE LOW THAT JUMPED INTO
CANADA...MANY HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED ACROSS
THE NORTH. THEREFORE, THERE MAY BE A LITTLE COOLING THROUGH THE
DAY. HOWEVER, MORE WARMING IS DUE TONIGHT, SO LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN MANY AREAS THIS EVENING BEFORE
RISING AGAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE. A COUPLE OF
AREAS TO WATCH THAT MAY BUCK THIS FORECAST ARE YAKUTAT AND HAINES
WHERE SNOW LEVELS MAY BE LOWER THAN FORECAST. ALL MODELS TREND SNOW
LEVELS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS MAKES SENSE AS NORTHERLIES
WILL DRAW DRYER AIR, IF NOT APPRECIABLY COOLER AIR ACROSS THE
BORDER. AT THIS POINT, WE FEEL THIS WEDGING WILL NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO CHANGE PRECIP TYPE TO SNOW, BUT IT COULD. TONIGHT`S
PUSH OF WARM AIR SEEMS EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN YESTERDAY`S.
HENCE FOR NOW, WE ARE LEAVING EVERYTHING EXCEPT WHITE PASS RAIN.

USED NAM/ECMWF AS GUIDANCE FOR SMALL CHANGES. OVERALL FORECAST
LOOKS VERY SIMILAR FROM LAST PACKAGE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOOD
EXCEPT FOR ISSUES MENTIONED ABOVE.

.LONG TERM...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE NEARER TIME FRAMES BUT THE
LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS MAY BE TRYING TO HINT AT A PATTERN SHIFT
FOR NEXT WEEK. THROUGH FRIDAY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MOIST WARMER AIR NORTHWARD TO THE EASTERN
GULF. THE BLOCKING RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL BE
BROKEN DOWN BY THE TROUGH OVER GULF BEING MOVED EASTWARD AND
KICKED INLAND BY SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAD BEEN
SUPPORTING THE GENERAL TROUGH WAS WEAKENED BY A STRONG LONG WAVE
FEATURE THAT IS STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EAST FROM NORTHERN JAPAN.
THIS LOW WILL REPLACE THE OTHER ONE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SOUTHER PORTION OF THE TROUGH ROTATES TO EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC.

THIS MEANS WARM AND WET PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE.
TROF OR FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF ABOUT 24 HOURS
APART FROM EACH OTHER BEFORE A STRONGER FRONTAL BAND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEW LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GULF TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST ALASKA
OVER THE EARLY WEEKEND.

THE SUCCESSIVE FRONTS AND TROFS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL LIKELY
BRING WINDS UPTO GALE FORCE AS THE MOVE NORTH SO THERE WILL BE
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE OUTER COASTAL AREAS. THE LOW
CIRCULATIONS WITH THIS FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN WEST BACK
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GULF BEFORE THEY GET ABSORBED
BAY INTO THE GENERAL LOW PRESSURE.

CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-043.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-012-021-033-035-036-041-042-051-
     052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.
&&

$$

JWA/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU





000
FXAK67 PAJK 091445
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
545 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...A TIGHTLY WOUND GALE FORCE LOW CHURNED NORTH THROUGH
THE EASTERN GULF YESTERDAY EVENING AND HOPPED INLAND TO THE
CANADIAN YUKON OVERNIGHT. WINDS RESPONDED IN AN EXCITING WAY
THROUGH THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. CAPE SPENCER EXPERIENCED
HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS (75 KT) OUT OF THE WEST LATE YESTERDAY
EVENING. NORTHERN LYNN CANAL REPORTED GALE FORCE SOUTHERLIES A
FEW HOURS LATER. FINALLY...SKAGWAY`S LIGHT NORTHERLIES FLIPPED TO
SOUTHERLY AND BEGAN GUSTING TO 50 MPH AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THAT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOSED INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BE PUSHED NORTHWARD THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
A GALE FORCE FRONT REACHING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TO PULL NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

WINDS ARE ALREADY SHIFTING TO NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
WE EXPECT WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO RE-SWITCH TO
NORTH AFTER THE BIG SOUTHERLY CHANGEOVER OVERNIGHT A FEW HOURS
FROM NOW THIS MORNING. GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON AND
LIKELY MAXIMIZE THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADIENTS BECOME ORIENTED MORE
PARALLEL TO NORTH-SOUTH CHANNELS LATE TONIGHT. THUS THE STRONGEST
NORTHERLIES/EASTERLIES WILL LIKELY PEAK THIS EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AND STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS THE FRONT BRUSHES
SOUTHEAST`S OUTER ISLANDS. AT THIS POINT WE HAVE KEPT ALL OF OUR
CUSTOMARY TRIGGER POINTS: DOWNTOWN JUNEAU...WESTERN PRINCE OF
WALES ISLAND...THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS...BARANOF ISLAND ALL
UNDER 40 MPH GUSTS. WINDS AT 925 MB DO REACH 45 KT TO BE
SURE...BUT THE WARMTH ARRIVING WITH THIS WAVE WILL HAVE A TENDENCY
TO KEEP THESE WINDS ALOFT.

THE WARMTH OF FEBRUARY 8TH WAS RECORD-BREAKING. KLAWOCK AND
JUNEAU BOTH EXPERIENCED RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. RECORD-BREAKING
WARMTH GENERALLY CAUSES ISSUES FOR GUIDANCE RESOURCES, AS RECORDS
ARE THERE FOR A REASON, AND GUIDANCE LIKE MANY PEOPLE HAVE
DIFFICULTY COPING WITH NEW SITUATIONS. AT THIS POINT, WE FEEL THAT
GIVEN THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERLY
PUSH AHEAD OF LAST NIGHT`S SURFACE LOW THAT JUMPED INTO
CANADA...MANY HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED ACROSS
THE NORTH. THEREFORE, THERE MAY BE A LITTLE COOLING THROUGH THE
DAY. HOWEVER, MORE WARMING IS DUE TONIGHT, SO LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN MANY AREAS THIS EVENING BEFORE
RISING AGAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE. A COUPLE OF
AREAS TO WATCH THAT MAY BUCK THIS FORECAST ARE YAKUTAT AND HAINES
WHERE SNOW LEVELS MAY BE LOWER THAN FORECAST. ALL MODELS TREND SNOW
LEVELS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS MAKES SENSE AS NORTHERLIES
WILL DRAW DRYER AIR, IF NOT APPRECIABLY COOLER AIR ACROSS THE
BORDER. AT THIS POINT, WE FEEL THIS WEDGING WILL NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO CHANGE PRECIP TYPE TO SNOW, BUT IT COULD. TONIGHT`S
PUSH OF WARM AIR SEEMS EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN YESTERDAY`S.
HENCE FOR NOW, WE ARE LEAVING EVERYTHING EXCEPT WHITE PASS RAIN.

USED NAM/ECMWF AS GUIDANCE FOR SMALL CHANGES. OVERALL FORECAST
LOOKS VERY SIMILAR FROM LAST PACKAGE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOOD
EXCEPT FOR ISSUES MENTIONED ABOVE.

.LONG TERM...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE NEARER TIME FRAMES BUT THE
LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS MAY BE TRYING TO HINT AT A PATTERN SHIFT
FOR NEXT WEEK. THROUGH FRIDAY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MOIST WARMER AIR NORTHWARD TO THE EASTERN
GULF. THE BLOCKING RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL BE
BROKEN DOWN BY THE TROUGH OVER GULF BEING MOVED EASTWARD AND
KICKED INLAND BY SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAD BEEN
SUPPORTING THE GENERAL TROUGH WAS WEAKENED BY A STRONG LONG WAVE
FEATURE THAT IS STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EAST FROM NORTHERN JAPAN.
THIS LOW WILL REPLACE THE OTHER ONE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SOUTHER PORTION OF THE TROUGH ROTATES TO EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC.

THIS MEANS WARM AND WET PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE.
TROF OR FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF ABOUT 24 HOURS
APART FROM EACH OTHER BEFORE A STRONGER FRONTAL BAND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEW LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GULF TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST ALASKA
OVER THE EARLY WEEKEND.

THE SUCCESSIVE FRONTS AND TROFS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL LIKELY
BRING WINDS UPTO GALE FORCE AS THE MOVE NORTH SO THERE WILL BE
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE OUTER COASTAL AREAS. THE LOW
CIRCULATIONS WITH THIS FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN WEST BACK
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GULF BEFORE THEY GET ABSORBED
BAY INTO THE GENERAL LOW PRESSURE.

CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-043.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-012-021-033-035-036-041-042-051-
     052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.
&&

$$

JWA/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU





000
FXAK67 PAJK 090131
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
431 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...SW FLOW ALOFT WITH A BRANCH OF THE UPPER JET AIMED AT
CAPE SPENCER WHILE THERE IS A STRONG WEST COAST RIDGE INLAND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS QUITE A STREAM OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING
FROM THE SUBTROPICS WHICH CAUSED SOME PRECIPITATION RECORDS TO BE
BROKEN TODAY FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE ON
THIS SHIFT HAS BEEN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A GALE FORCE LOW THAT
DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTH AND IS MOVING UP THE COAST. AT ONE POINT
THIS LOW WAS BELOW 1000 MB. WE ALSO HAD ONE CLUSTER OF LIGHTNING IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS EARLIER BUT THIS HAS SUBSIDED.

08/12 NAM WAS THE CLOSEST ON SURFACE PRESSURE INITIALIZATION. USED
THAT ONE FOR THESE FORECASTS INCLUDING DRYING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE MOISTURE BAND DISSIPATES. WIND FORECASTS WERE QUITE DIFFICULT
WITH THE LOW CENTER AND THE NAW INSISTS THAT A LOW WILL DEVELOP IN
THE EASTERN YUKON BY 12Z TUE FOR SOME REAL WIND SHIFTS. THE OLD LOW
CENTER WILL DIE OUT NEAR YAKUTAT. THE JET IS CAUSING CHANGES TO
HAPPEN REALLY FAST AND TRIED TO CAPTURE THIS.

.AVIATION...THIS HAS BEEN A TOUGH SET OF TAFS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS CAUSED IFR CONDS IN AND OUT PLUS THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS
TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OUTSIDE ARE BIG AND FORECASTED GALES AROUND THE LOW
BUT CONDS ARE CHANGING FAST AND HARD TO EXPRESS THE WIND SHIFTS
AROUND THE COMPASS. GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT BUT LOOK FOR
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH LATER ON TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SO MUCH RAIN IN THE SOUTH PART AROUND 4 INCHES IN
SOME SPOTS IN THE LAST 36 HOURS. GOOD THING THE STREAMS AND
RIVERS WERE LOW ALTHOUGH THE SOILS WERE SATURATED ACCORDING TO
SOME SPOTTERS. NO IMPACTS. TIDES IN ESTUARIES ARE HIGH AT MAX
WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM...THE GULF WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA WITH WEATHER FRONTS DRIFTING OVER SEAK. A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO THE GULF FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS BUT THERE IS GOOD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN. THE UPPER TROF WILL KEEP MILD TEMPS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SW FETCH AND DEEP ONSHORE FLOW.
THERE MAY BE TIMES THAT THE HIGHWAYS MAY SEE SNOW SNOW BUT FOR THE
MOST PART ALL PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE LIQUID FORM. WIND
WISE THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS AS WEATHER FRONTS
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

WHERE CHANGES WERE MADE USED A BLEND OF THE 18Z NAM AND 12Z EC
THROUGH DAY 4 THEN USED THE NEW WPC FORECAST.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-041>043-051.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-052-053.
&&

$$

JC/ABJ

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU





000
FXAK67 PAJK 090131
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
431 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...SW FLOW ALOFT WITH A BRANCH OF THE UPPER JET AIMED AT
CAPE SPENCER WHILE THERE IS A STRONG WEST COAST RIDGE INLAND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS QUITE A STREAM OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING
FROM THE SUBTROPICS WHICH CAUSED SOME PRECIPITATION RECORDS TO BE
BROKEN TODAY FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE ON
THIS SHIFT HAS BEEN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A GALE FORCE LOW THAT
DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTH AND IS MOVING UP THE COAST. AT ONE POINT
THIS LOW WAS BELOW 1000 MB. WE ALSO HAD ONE CLUSTER OF LIGHTNING IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS EARLIER BUT THIS HAS SUBSIDED.

08/12 NAM WAS THE CLOSEST ON SURFACE PRESSURE INITIALIZATION. USED
THAT ONE FOR THESE FORECASTS INCLUDING DRYING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE MOISTURE BAND DISSIPATES. WIND FORECASTS WERE QUITE DIFFICULT
WITH THE LOW CENTER AND THE NAW INSISTS THAT A LOW WILL DEVELOP IN
THE EASTERN YUKON BY 12Z TUE FOR SOME REAL WIND SHIFTS. THE OLD LOW
CENTER WILL DIE OUT NEAR YAKUTAT. THE JET IS CAUSING CHANGES TO
HAPPEN REALLY FAST AND TRIED TO CAPTURE THIS.

.AVIATION...THIS HAS BEEN A TOUGH SET OF TAFS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS CAUSED IFR CONDS IN AND OUT PLUS THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS
TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OUTSIDE ARE BIG AND FORECASTED GALES AROUND THE LOW
BUT CONDS ARE CHANGING FAST AND HARD TO EXPRESS THE WIND SHIFTS
AROUND THE COMPASS. GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT BUT LOOK FOR
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH LATER ON TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SO MUCH RAIN IN THE SOUTH PART AROUND 4 INCHES IN
SOME SPOTS IN THE LAST 36 HOURS. GOOD THING THE STREAMS AND
RIVERS WERE LOW ALTHOUGH THE SOILS WERE SATURATED ACCORDING TO
SOME SPOTTERS. NO IMPACTS. TIDES IN ESTUARIES ARE HIGH AT MAX
WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM...THE GULF WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA WITH WEATHER FRONTS DRIFTING OVER SEAK. A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO THE GULF FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS BUT THERE IS GOOD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN. THE UPPER TROF WILL KEEP MILD TEMPS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SW FETCH AND DEEP ONSHORE FLOW.
THERE MAY BE TIMES THAT THE HIGHWAYS MAY SEE SNOW SNOW BUT FOR THE
MOST PART ALL PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE LIQUID FORM. WIND
WISE THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS AS WEATHER FRONTS
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

WHERE CHANGES WERE MADE USED A BLEND OF THE 18Z NAM AND 12Z EC
THROUGH DAY 4 THEN USED THE NEW WPC FORECAST.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-041>043-051.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-052-053.
&&

$$

JC/ABJ

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU




000
FXAK67 PAJK 081455
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
555 AM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF MONDAY AND INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THE BAND OF HEAVIER RAINS WILL BE PUSHING NORTHWARD FROM
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE RAIN THERE TO TAPER OFF TO LIGHT RAIN
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE ALSO RATHER GUSTY ACROSS PRINCE OF
WALES AND SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS THIS MORNING AS WELL.

A FEW OF THE VERY EARLY MORNING SHOWERS NEAR YAKUTAT HAVE BETTER
ENHANCEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WERE CREATING
SOME ICE PELLETS AND THAT WILL LIKELY ENDING.

AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IT SHOULD START AS
SNOW THERE. FOR HAINES AND HAINES HIGHWAY 2 TO 4 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE...WITH BEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE BORDER. THE KLONDIKE
HIGHWAY WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE SNOW
WILL BE GENERALLY ABOUT 1500 FEET TONIGHT ONWARD AND RISING
OVERNIGHT. AM EXPECTING ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND 5
TO 7 INCHES OVERNIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE TWO BASIC
PATTERNS. THE FIRST WILL QUICKLY BEGIN SETTING UP ON TUESDAY. THIS
ONE ENTAILS LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS OR OVER
THE WESTERN GULF WITH IMPULSES ROUNDING THE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH
AND THEN DETOURING TO THE NORTHWEST JUST AS THEY APPROACH THE
PANHANDLE. THIS FLOW IS CHARACTERIZED BY MILD TO WARM
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AS EACH IMPULSE
PASSES THE PANHANDLE OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY BRIEF DRY PERIODS
BETWEEN WAVE PASSAGES...AS WELL AS BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS BOTH
THE SOUTHERN INNER PASSAGES AND THE COASTAL ZONES. THIS PATTERN
LOOKS TO BEGIN TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

BY LATE FRIDAY ANOTHER PATTERN LOOKS TO EMERGE...ONE POTENTIALLY
MUCH WETTER FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AND ALSO MILD. THIS ONE
FEATURES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM AN EXTENDED FETCH ACROSS THE
NORTH PACIFIC WITH EMBEDDED WAVES ENHANCING RAINFALL AND WIND.
NEITHER PATTERN IS GOOD FOR SNOW LOVERS BUT SHOULD SUIT THOSE
PREFER US TO BE SNOW FREE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THERE WAS AT LEAST A MODICUM OF
AGREEMENT TO PURSUE CHANGES. AS THE GREAT WEST COAST RIDGE
SUCCUMBS TO THE FIRST SHORT-WAVE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH, THE
LAST OF THE SHORT-TERM`S CONVEYOR BELT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. DRYING
CONDITIONS WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER, ANY BREAK IS SHORT-LIVED AS THE FIRST WAVE ADVANCES FROM
THE SOUTH TO BRING MORE RAIN FOR THE PANHANDLE AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES. A PERIOD OF
A WEAK TAKU WINDS MAY SET UP FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS BY
THE AFTERNOON STRETCHING INTO THE EVENING. WITH SUCH A WARM AIR
MASS PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA, IT IS DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE
ANY SHORT OUTFLOW SITUATION SHOULD COOL OUR ATMOSPHERE QUICK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO SNOW.
THEREFORE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WHITE PASS THIS WEEK AND YAKUTAT
TUESDAY MORNING, WE HAVE GONE SNOW-FREE FOR THIS EARLY TO MID
FEBRUARY FORECAST.

FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WE USED AN ENSEMBLE OF GFS, ECMWF, AND
THE CANADIAN GEM TO PRESENT A ROUGH IDEA OF WHEN GRADIENTS WILL
TIGHTEN, IE, THE MOST LIKELY TIME WHEN SUCCESSIVE WAVES WILL
ARRIVE. POTENTIALLY THE STRONGEST WAVE, THE LAST IN THE SERIES,
INDUCES DRIER RIDGING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF DRY WEATHER, BUT THIS
WILL BE BRIEF AS RAIN MOVES IN TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WINDS BEGIN TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE
SECOND MORE WET PATTERN EVOLVES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING WEATHER/WIND SYSTEMS AVERAGE FOR A
PATTERN WHERE GUIDANCE STRUGGLES. CONFIDENCE MUCH HIGHER FOR WARM
TO MILD TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. USED ECMWF FOR
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ECMWF/GEM/GFS FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT GOING INTO WPC.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM AKST TUESDAY FOR
     AKZ018.
     STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-022-033>036-041>043-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ051-053.
&&

$$

BEZENEK/JWA

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU





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