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000
FXAK67 PAJK 031408
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
508 AM AKST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF...SLOWLY APPROACHING THE PANHANDLE
COASTAL AREAS WITH LIGHT RAIN STARTED OVER YAKUTAT AREA. MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE UNDER
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
INCOMING FRONT BECAME OCCLUDED NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND AND PRODUCED
SMALL CRAFT WINDS/SEAS FROM CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING.
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST SOUTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. NORTHERNMOST ZONES AND THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AREAS COOLED DOWN TO THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWERS 30S.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE HIGH PRESSURE IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST BY TONIGHT AS THE WEAK
COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PANHANDLE.
REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF FOR
PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS. MADE A FEW FINE TUNES FOR POPS.QPF
FIELDS WITH THE SREF. GAVE HEAVIER WEIGHT FOR MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT AND LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING FOR THE NORTHERN ONE THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE.

AS THE HIGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST...RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
WITH THE INCOMING FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT IS FAIRLY
WEEK AND CONTAINS LIMITED MOISTURE AS MODERATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DOMINATING SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES ONSHORE.

THE DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN A BIT THIS EVENING AND
SLIGHTLY DRIFT SOUTH BY LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH LIKELY POPS OVER
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THE NORTHERN ONE THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE
WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. ONCE AGAIN...THE LIMITED QPF
VALUES WILL KEEP SNOW FALL LESS THAN AN INCH. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE INCOMING FRONT WILL DISORGANIZE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS IT ENTERS
THE MAIN PORTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. EXPECT INCREASING MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NO RAINFALL OVER THE HORIZON.

.LONG TERM...ALMOST A WEEK OF DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END BY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH WIDESPREAD GENERALLY
LIGHT RAINFALL. ONSHORE FLOW AND GENERAL HIGH POP/LOW QPF PATTERN WILL
BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL
WAVES IMPACT THE AREA. AS CONTINENTAL AIR CONTINUES TO BE RESTRICTED
WELL TO THE NORTH DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...APPEARS THAT
SNOW WILL NOT BE A FACTOR EXCEPT OVER THE HAINES/SKAGWAY AREAS AND
EVEN THERE EPISODES WILL LIKELY BE MIXED AND OF LITTLE
IMPACT...THROUGH ABOUT SAT. FOR WED ONLY UPDATES TO INHERITED DYNAMIC
FIELDS WERE NECESSARY AS THE ELONGATED NE-SW UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS PANHANDLE...WITH A FEW WIND TWEAKS UPWARD
FOR CLARENCE STRAIT. THEN FOR THU THE NEW EC/NAM RUNS WERE
INTEGRATED. THE PATTERN SHOWS SLUGGISH PROGRESSION EASTWARD WITH
THE NAM A BIT STRONGER WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND RAIN AMOUNTS
MAXIMIZED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. TWEAKED OCEAN WINDS UP A BIT
WHILE THE INNER CHANNELS REMAIN TAME WITH RELATIVELY WEAK
GRADIENTS CONTINUING. ON FRI A BREAK IN PRECIP EARLY APPEARS
LIKELY BUT BRIEF WITH PANHANDLE RAIN RETURNING FOR THE AFTERNOON.
THE LAST FEW BLOCKS OF THE NAM BECAME AN OUTLIER AS FORECAST THEN
INTEGRATED NEW GFS FIELDS INTO THE MIX. WINDS WERE TWEAKED AGAIN
BUT LARGELY INHERITED WPC GRIDS WERE THEN UTILIZED. BY SAT AS
PRESSURE GRADIENTS RESPONDED TO UPPER TROUGHING BUILDING INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF AREA-WIDE MARINE WINDS INCREASE...AND BUMPED UP
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE NORTHERN HALF CHANNELS. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES WITH A NEW LANDFALLING FRONT ON THE EC. ONLY THE SKAGWAY
AREA APPEARED TO HAVE ANY THREAT OF A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AT THAT
POINT. THEN ON SUNDAY A COOLER AND STILL WET PATTERN CONTINUED
WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND WINDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE. ALL 3 MAJOR
MODELS ADVERTISE DEEP TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE WEST/CENTRAL GULF
AT THIS POINT WITH COOLING LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS BEGINNING OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

POP/THERMODYNAMIC UPDATES WERE MADE THROUGHOUT USING THE 00Z EC/GFS RUNS
AS AGREEMENT WAS STRONG THROUGH THE EXTENDED...ALONG WITH MOS
TEMPERATURES. WARMED NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES IN GENERAL BY A COUPLE
DEGREES AND RAISED SNOW LEVELS A BIT OVER THE NORTH AS THERE IS
SIMPLY LITTLE SOURCE FOR COLD AIR IN THIS PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT SAT.

BROAD STRONG TROUGHING WITH AN INFLUX OF CONTINENTAL AIR AT LOW
LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS EXTENDED
RUNS...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ONCE WE GET INSIDE OF 4 OR 5
DAYS AS SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD BE INVOLVED FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. AT THIS POINT THE 3 MAJOR EXTENDED MODELS ARE
IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS. HELD OFF ON TAKING THE
TEMPERATURES DOWN MUCH ON MON/TUES UNTIL WE GET A FEW MORE MODEL
RUNS FOR THE PERIOD...CURRENT EC/GFS ARE ADVERTISING A BIG COOLDOWN.
MODEL CONFIDENCE WAS ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FOR A
CHANGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ051-052.

&&

$$

AHN/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU











000
FXAK67 PAJK 031408
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
508 AM AKST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF...SLOWLY APPROACHING THE PANHANDLE
COASTAL AREAS WITH LIGHT RAIN STARTED OVER YAKUTAT AREA. MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE UNDER
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
INCOMING FRONT BECAME OCCLUDED NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND AND PRODUCED
SMALL CRAFT WINDS/SEAS FROM CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING.
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST SOUTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. NORTHERNMOST ZONES AND THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AREAS COOLED DOWN TO THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWERS 30S.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE HIGH PRESSURE IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST BY TONIGHT AS THE WEAK
COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PANHANDLE.
REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF FOR
PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS. MADE A FEW FINE TUNES FOR POPS.QPF
FIELDS WITH THE SREF. GAVE HEAVIER WEIGHT FOR MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT AND LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING FOR THE NORTHERN ONE THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE.

AS THE HIGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST...RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
WITH THE INCOMING FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT IS FAIRLY
WEEK AND CONTAINS LIMITED MOISTURE AS MODERATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DOMINATING SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES ONSHORE.

THE DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN A BIT THIS EVENING AND
SLIGHTLY DRIFT SOUTH BY LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH LIKELY POPS OVER
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THE NORTHERN ONE THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE
WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. ONCE AGAIN...THE LIMITED QPF
VALUES WILL KEEP SNOW FALL LESS THAN AN INCH. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE INCOMING FRONT WILL DISORGANIZE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS IT ENTERS
THE MAIN PORTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. EXPECT INCREASING MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NO RAINFALL OVER THE HORIZON.

.LONG TERM...ALMOST A WEEK OF DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END BY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH WIDESPREAD GENERALLY
LIGHT RAINFALL. ONSHORE FLOW AND GENERAL HIGH POP/LOW QPF PATTERN WILL
BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL
WAVES IMPACT THE AREA. AS CONTINENTAL AIR CONTINUES TO BE RESTRICTED
WELL TO THE NORTH DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...APPEARS THAT
SNOW WILL NOT BE A FACTOR EXCEPT OVER THE HAINES/SKAGWAY AREAS AND
EVEN THERE EPISODES WILL LIKELY BE MIXED AND OF LITTLE
IMPACT...THROUGH ABOUT SAT. FOR WED ONLY UPDATES TO INHERITED DYNAMIC
FIELDS WERE NECESSARY AS THE ELONGATED NE-SW UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS PANHANDLE...WITH A FEW WIND TWEAKS UPWARD
FOR CLARENCE STRAIT. THEN FOR THU THE NEW EC/NAM RUNS WERE
INTEGRATED. THE PATTERN SHOWS SLUGGISH PROGRESSION EASTWARD WITH
THE NAM A BIT STRONGER WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND RAIN AMOUNTS
MAXIMIZED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. TWEAKED OCEAN WINDS UP A BIT
WHILE THE INNER CHANNELS REMAIN TAME WITH RELATIVELY WEAK
GRADIENTS CONTINUING. ON FRI A BREAK IN PRECIP EARLY APPEARS
LIKELY BUT BRIEF WITH PANHANDLE RAIN RETURNING FOR THE AFTERNOON.
THE LAST FEW BLOCKS OF THE NAM BECAME AN OUTLIER AS FORECAST THEN
INTEGRATED NEW GFS FIELDS INTO THE MIX. WINDS WERE TWEAKED AGAIN
BUT LARGELY INHERITED WPC GRIDS WERE THEN UTILIZED. BY SAT AS
PRESSURE GRADIENTS RESPONDED TO UPPER TROUGHING BUILDING INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF AREA-WIDE MARINE WINDS INCREASE...AND BUMPED UP
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE NORTHERN HALF CHANNELS. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES WITH A NEW LANDFALLING FRONT ON THE EC. ONLY THE SKAGWAY
AREA APPEARED TO HAVE ANY THREAT OF A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AT THAT
POINT. THEN ON SUNDAY A COOLER AND STILL WET PATTERN CONTINUED
WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND WINDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE. ALL 3 MAJOR
MODELS ADVERTISE DEEP TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE WEST/CENTRAL GULF
AT THIS POINT WITH COOLING LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS BEGINNING OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

POP/THERMODYNAMIC UPDATES WERE MADE THROUGHOUT USING THE 00Z EC/GFS RUNS
AS AGREEMENT WAS STRONG THROUGH THE EXTENDED...ALONG WITH MOS
TEMPERATURES. WARMED NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES IN GENERAL BY A COUPLE
DEGREES AND RAISED SNOW LEVELS A BIT OVER THE NORTH AS THERE IS
SIMPLY LITTLE SOURCE FOR COLD AIR IN THIS PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT SAT.

BROAD STRONG TROUGHING WITH AN INFLUX OF CONTINENTAL AIR AT LOW
LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS EXTENDED
RUNS...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ONCE WE GET INSIDE OF 4 OR 5
DAYS AS SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD BE INVOLVED FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. AT THIS POINT THE 3 MAJOR EXTENDED MODELS ARE
IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS. HELD OFF ON TAKING THE
TEMPERATURES DOWN MUCH ON MON/TUES UNTIL WE GET A FEW MORE MODEL
RUNS FOR THE PERIOD...CURRENT EC/GFS ARE ADVERTISING A BIG COOLDOWN.
MODEL CONFIDENCE WAS ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FOR A
CHANGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ051-052.

&&

$$

AHN/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU












000
FXAK67 PAJK 030002
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
302 PM AKST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...RATHER QUIET DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TODAY. MOST
AREAS ARE ENJOYING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING THROUGH. THE LACK OF CLOUDS DID RESULT IN SOME FOG AROUND
WRANGELL THIS MORNING, BUT WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND OUTFLOW
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, WHAT FOG THERE WAS DISSIPATED QUICKLY.
OTHERWISE THE ONLY REMAINING CONCERN IS DIMINISHING OUTFLOW WINDS
IN SKAGWAY, LYNN CANAL, AND STEPHENS PASSAGE. PAGY HAS REPORTED
GUSTS UP TO 27 KT SO FAR TODAY, AND ELDRED ROCK AND FIVE FINGERS
HAVE BOTH HAD 20 TO 25 KT WINDS MOST OF THE MORNING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA THAT BROUGHT THE OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
BE WEAKENING AND DROPPING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA BY THIS EVENING
BEFORE IT HEADS OFF TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT. REPLACING IT WILL
BE A WEAKER RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE BY TOMORROW. THE NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL DIMINISH AS A RESULT AND THEN TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE WEAKER RIDGE BUILDS ON TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS AS FORECAST PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL BE RATHER LOW FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE OTHER FEATURE OF CONCERN IS A WEAK FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING
IN FROM THE GULF THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NOT MUCH WIND OR
PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT AS IT IS FIGHTING THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
STILL PARKED OVER THE PANHANDLE. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE TONIGHT OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF NEAR CAPE SUCKLING AS A WEAK BARRIER JET
MAGNIFIES THE FRONTAL WINDS TO 30 KT. OTHER WISE MOST WINDS WILL
BE LESS THEN 25 KT. AS FOR PRECIP YAKUTAT WILL BE THE FIRST TO
SEE PRECIP. IT IS LIKELY TO START LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. YAKUTAT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR THE PRECIP TO START OUT AS SNOW EARLY TUE BUT IT SHOULD
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN BY LATER IN THE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM
UP AND WINDS TURN MORE SE. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THEN
1 INCH AS PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. FARTHER EAST THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL NOT SEE THE RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING AND
EVEN THEN IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW MUCH AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL BE FIGHTING THIS FRONT THE
WHOLE WAY. SOME AREAS MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX WITH SNOW
IN THE MORNING BUT MOST AREAS THAT GET PRECIP SHOULD BE RAIN BY
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THE
FARTHER EAST YOU GET THE LESS RAIN YOU WILL SEE. YAKUTAT HAS
CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POPS, THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE HAS CHANCE TO
LIKELY, AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
AS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FRONT IS THE MOST AFFECTED BY THE UPPER
RIDGE.

THE ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT IS ALSO PLAYING HAVOC WITH THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS VARYING CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS RESULTS IN SPREADS OF 4 TO 7 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS.
ENDED UP GOING WITH WARMING UP TEMP OVERNIGHT A FEW DEGREES FOR
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERING TEMPS OVER THE SOUTH WHERE MORE BREAKS WILL ALLOW AREAS
TO RADIATE OUT.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT. THE GFS SEEMED TO BE
A LITTLE BIT OF AN OUTLIER AS IT WAS JUST A BIT TOO FAST BRINGING
THE FRONT INLAND COMPARED TO JUST ABOUT EVERY OTHER MODEL. DECIDED
TO GO WITH NAM AND ECMWF FOR MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY AS THESE MODELS
SEEMED TO REPRESENT CURRENT FEATURES RATHER WELL.

.LONG TERM...SERIES OF RELATIVELY WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
INTO THE AK GULF THEN OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
RANGE FORECAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING
THE DETAILS OF THESE FEATURES SO THERE HAS BEEN RATHER LARGE MODEL
SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES. THE THERMAL PATTERN OVER
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE HAS SHOWN A WIDE RANGE IN SOLUTIONS, MAINLY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND PRECIP TYPE. USED A BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF
WITH INHERITED GRIDS AS IT WAS MORE OF A MID RANGE SOLUTION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE.

THE FRONT DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER
THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SECOND SHORT WAVES TRACKS
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WAVE WILL BERING IN
MORE PRECIP TOT HE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FORMING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THERE WILL BE
A 995 MB LOW IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
DIRECTLY TO THE NORTH TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AK
INTERIOR. THIS WAVE WILL DROP OVER THE PANHANDLE FROM THE NORTH TO
THE SOUTH WHERE IS INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE N
PACIFIC LOW. ALONG WITH ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIP THIS WAVE WILL
INCREASE WINDS OVER THE AK GULF AND PANHANDLE FOR THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING MARINE WINDS MUCH ABOVE 25 KT. FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE REMNANTS OF
THE BERING SEA LOW THAT IS CROSSING OVER THE AK INTERIOR THROUGH
THE WEEKEND THEN REACHING THE PANHANDLE BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

WHILE 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE -4 TO -6C RANGE FOR THE WAVES
MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WIND FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE TEMPS. KEEPING SOME MIX OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT FOR NORTHERN PANHANDLE BUT HAVE BACKED OFF ON SOME MIX
OF SNOW FOR LOCATIONS WHERE LOWS WILL BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

MODEL SPREAD BEGAN RATHER SOON WITH DIFFERENCES ALREADY WITH THE
WEDNESDAY WAVE. THE NAM WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVING THE WAVE INTO
THE SOUTHEAST GULF WITH THE GEM BARELY MOVING THE LOW OUT OF THE
WESTERN GULF, THE GFS WHILE FASTER THAN THE GEM WAS STILL ON THE
SLOW SIDE. SO USED THE 12 ECMWF WHICH WHILE HAS SHOWN SOME RUN
TO RUN DIFFERENCES WAS THE MID RANGE SOLUTION. FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED KEPT WITH NEW WPC WHICH WAS AN ECMWF/NAEFS ENSEMBLE
SOLUTION.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ051-052.

&&

$$

EAL/PRB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU











000
FXAK67 PAJK 030002
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
302 PM AKST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...RATHER QUIET DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TODAY. MOST
AREAS ARE ENJOYING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING THROUGH. THE LACK OF CLOUDS DID RESULT IN SOME FOG AROUND
WRANGELL THIS MORNING, BUT WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND OUTFLOW
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, WHAT FOG THERE WAS DISSIPATED QUICKLY.
OTHERWISE THE ONLY REMAINING CONCERN IS DIMINISHING OUTFLOW WINDS
IN SKAGWAY, LYNN CANAL, AND STEPHENS PASSAGE. PAGY HAS REPORTED
GUSTS UP TO 27 KT SO FAR TODAY, AND ELDRED ROCK AND FIVE FINGERS
HAVE BOTH HAD 20 TO 25 KT WINDS MOST OF THE MORNING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA THAT BROUGHT THE OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
BE WEAKENING AND DROPPING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA BY THIS EVENING
BEFORE IT HEADS OFF TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT. REPLACING IT WILL
BE A WEAKER RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE BY TOMORROW. THE NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL DIMINISH AS A RESULT AND THEN TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE WEAKER RIDGE BUILDS ON TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS AS FORECAST PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL BE RATHER LOW FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE OTHER FEATURE OF CONCERN IS A WEAK FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING
IN FROM THE GULF THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NOT MUCH WIND OR
PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT AS IT IS FIGHTING THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
STILL PARKED OVER THE PANHANDLE. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE TONIGHT OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF NEAR CAPE SUCKLING AS A WEAK BARRIER JET
MAGNIFIES THE FRONTAL WINDS TO 30 KT. OTHER WISE MOST WINDS WILL
BE LESS THEN 25 KT. AS FOR PRECIP YAKUTAT WILL BE THE FIRST TO
SEE PRECIP. IT IS LIKELY TO START LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. YAKUTAT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR THE PRECIP TO START OUT AS SNOW EARLY TUE BUT IT SHOULD
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN BY LATER IN THE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM
UP AND WINDS TURN MORE SE. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THEN
1 INCH AS PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. FARTHER EAST THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL NOT SEE THE RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING AND
EVEN THEN IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW MUCH AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL BE FIGHTING THIS FRONT THE
WHOLE WAY. SOME AREAS MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX WITH SNOW
IN THE MORNING BUT MOST AREAS THAT GET PRECIP SHOULD BE RAIN BY
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THE
FARTHER EAST YOU GET THE LESS RAIN YOU WILL SEE. YAKUTAT HAS
CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POPS, THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE HAS CHANCE TO
LIKELY, AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
AS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FRONT IS THE MOST AFFECTED BY THE UPPER
RIDGE.

THE ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT IS ALSO PLAYING HAVOC WITH THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS VARYING CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS RESULTS IN SPREADS OF 4 TO 7 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS.
ENDED UP GOING WITH WARMING UP TEMP OVERNIGHT A FEW DEGREES FOR
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERING TEMPS OVER THE SOUTH WHERE MORE BREAKS WILL ALLOW AREAS
TO RADIATE OUT.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT. THE GFS SEEMED TO BE
A LITTLE BIT OF AN OUTLIER AS IT WAS JUST A BIT TOO FAST BRINGING
THE FRONT INLAND COMPARED TO JUST ABOUT EVERY OTHER MODEL. DECIDED
TO GO WITH NAM AND ECMWF FOR MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY AS THESE MODELS
SEEMED TO REPRESENT CURRENT FEATURES RATHER WELL.

.LONG TERM...SERIES OF RELATIVELY WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
INTO THE AK GULF THEN OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
RANGE FORECAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING
THE DETAILS OF THESE FEATURES SO THERE HAS BEEN RATHER LARGE MODEL
SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES. THE THERMAL PATTERN OVER
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE HAS SHOWN A WIDE RANGE IN SOLUTIONS, MAINLY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND PRECIP TYPE. USED A BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF
WITH INHERITED GRIDS AS IT WAS MORE OF A MID RANGE SOLUTION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE.

THE FRONT DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER
THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SECOND SHORT WAVES TRACKS
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WAVE WILL BERING IN
MORE PRECIP TOT HE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FORMING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THERE WILL BE
A 995 MB LOW IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
DIRECTLY TO THE NORTH TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AK
INTERIOR. THIS WAVE WILL DROP OVER THE PANHANDLE FROM THE NORTH TO
THE SOUTH WHERE IS INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE N
PACIFIC LOW. ALONG WITH ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIP THIS WAVE WILL
INCREASE WINDS OVER THE AK GULF AND PANHANDLE FOR THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING MARINE WINDS MUCH ABOVE 25 KT. FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE REMNANTS OF
THE BERING SEA LOW THAT IS CROSSING OVER THE AK INTERIOR THROUGH
THE WEEKEND THEN REACHING THE PANHANDLE BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

WHILE 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE -4 TO -6C RANGE FOR THE WAVES
MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WIND FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE TEMPS. KEEPING SOME MIX OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT FOR NORTHERN PANHANDLE BUT HAVE BACKED OFF ON SOME MIX
OF SNOW FOR LOCATIONS WHERE LOWS WILL BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

MODEL SPREAD BEGAN RATHER SOON WITH DIFFERENCES ALREADY WITH THE
WEDNESDAY WAVE. THE NAM WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVING THE WAVE INTO
THE SOUTHEAST GULF WITH THE GEM BARELY MOVING THE LOW OUT OF THE
WESTERN GULF, THE GFS WHILE FASTER THAN THE GEM WAS STILL ON THE
SLOW SIDE. SO USED THE 12 ECMWF WHICH WHILE HAS SHOWN SOME RUN
TO RUN DIFFERENCES WAS THE MID RANGE SOLUTION. FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED KEPT WITH NEW WPC WHICH WAS AN ECMWF/NAEFS ENSEMBLE
SOLUTION.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ051-052.

&&

$$

EAL/PRB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU











000
FXAK67 PAJK 030002
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
302 PM AKST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...RATHER QUIET DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TODAY. MOST
AREAS ARE ENJOYING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING THROUGH. THE LACK OF CLOUDS DID RESULT IN SOME FOG AROUND
WRANGELL THIS MORNING, BUT WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND OUTFLOW
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, WHAT FOG THERE WAS DISSIPATED QUICKLY.
OTHERWISE THE ONLY REMAINING CONCERN IS DIMINISHING OUTFLOW WINDS
IN SKAGWAY, LYNN CANAL, AND STEPHENS PASSAGE. PAGY HAS REPORTED
GUSTS UP TO 27 KT SO FAR TODAY, AND ELDRED ROCK AND FIVE FINGERS
HAVE BOTH HAD 20 TO 25 KT WINDS MOST OF THE MORNING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA THAT BROUGHT THE OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
BE WEAKENING AND DROPPING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA BY THIS EVENING
BEFORE IT HEADS OFF TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT. REPLACING IT WILL
BE A WEAKER RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE BY TOMORROW. THE NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL DIMINISH AS A RESULT AND THEN TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE WEAKER RIDGE BUILDS ON TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS AS FORECAST PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL BE RATHER LOW FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE OTHER FEATURE OF CONCERN IS A WEAK FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING
IN FROM THE GULF THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NOT MUCH WIND OR
PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT AS IT IS FIGHTING THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
STILL PARKED OVER THE PANHANDLE. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE TONIGHT OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF NEAR CAPE SUCKLING AS A WEAK BARRIER JET
MAGNIFIES THE FRONTAL WINDS TO 30 KT. OTHER WISE MOST WINDS WILL
BE LESS THEN 25 KT. AS FOR PRECIP YAKUTAT WILL BE THE FIRST TO
SEE PRECIP. IT IS LIKELY TO START LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. YAKUTAT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR THE PRECIP TO START OUT AS SNOW EARLY TUE BUT IT SHOULD
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN BY LATER IN THE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM
UP AND WINDS TURN MORE SE. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THEN
1 INCH AS PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. FARTHER EAST THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL NOT SEE THE RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING AND
EVEN THEN IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW MUCH AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL BE FIGHTING THIS FRONT THE
WHOLE WAY. SOME AREAS MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX WITH SNOW
IN THE MORNING BUT MOST AREAS THAT GET PRECIP SHOULD BE RAIN BY
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THE
FARTHER EAST YOU GET THE LESS RAIN YOU WILL SEE. YAKUTAT HAS
CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POPS, THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE HAS CHANCE TO
LIKELY, AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
AS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FRONT IS THE MOST AFFECTED BY THE UPPER
RIDGE.

THE ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT IS ALSO PLAYING HAVOC WITH THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS VARYING CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS RESULTS IN SPREADS OF 4 TO 7 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS.
ENDED UP GOING WITH WARMING UP TEMP OVERNIGHT A FEW DEGREES FOR
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERING TEMPS OVER THE SOUTH WHERE MORE BREAKS WILL ALLOW AREAS
TO RADIATE OUT.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT. THE GFS SEEMED TO BE
A LITTLE BIT OF AN OUTLIER AS IT WAS JUST A BIT TOO FAST BRINGING
THE FRONT INLAND COMPARED TO JUST ABOUT EVERY OTHER MODEL. DECIDED
TO GO WITH NAM AND ECMWF FOR MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY AS THESE MODELS
SEEMED TO REPRESENT CURRENT FEATURES RATHER WELL.

.LONG TERM...SERIES OF RELATIVELY WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
INTO THE AK GULF THEN OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
RANGE FORECAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING
THE DETAILS OF THESE FEATURES SO THERE HAS BEEN RATHER LARGE MODEL
SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES. THE THERMAL PATTERN OVER
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE HAS SHOWN A WIDE RANGE IN SOLUTIONS, MAINLY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND PRECIP TYPE. USED A BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF
WITH INHERITED GRIDS AS IT WAS MORE OF A MID RANGE SOLUTION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE.

THE FRONT DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER
THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SECOND SHORT WAVES TRACKS
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WAVE WILL BERING IN
MORE PRECIP TOT HE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FORMING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THERE WILL BE
A 995 MB LOW IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
DIRECTLY TO THE NORTH TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AK
INTERIOR. THIS WAVE WILL DROP OVER THE PANHANDLE FROM THE NORTH TO
THE SOUTH WHERE IS INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE N
PACIFIC LOW. ALONG WITH ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIP THIS WAVE WILL
INCREASE WINDS OVER THE AK GULF AND PANHANDLE FOR THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING MARINE WINDS MUCH ABOVE 25 KT. FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE REMNANTS OF
THE BERING SEA LOW THAT IS CROSSING OVER THE AK INTERIOR THROUGH
THE WEEKEND THEN REACHING THE PANHANDLE BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

WHILE 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE -4 TO -6C RANGE FOR THE WAVES
MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WIND FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE TEMPS. KEEPING SOME MIX OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT FOR NORTHERN PANHANDLE BUT HAVE BACKED OFF ON SOME MIX
OF SNOW FOR LOCATIONS WHERE LOWS WILL BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

MODEL SPREAD BEGAN RATHER SOON WITH DIFFERENCES ALREADY WITH THE
WEDNESDAY WAVE. THE NAM WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVING THE WAVE INTO
THE SOUTHEAST GULF WITH THE GEM BARELY MOVING THE LOW OUT OF THE
WESTERN GULF, THE GFS WHILE FASTER THAN THE GEM WAS STILL ON THE
SLOW SIDE. SO USED THE 12 ECMWF WHICH WHILE HAS SHOWN SOME RUN
TO RUN DIFFERENCES WAS THE MID RANGE SOLUTION. FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED KEPT WITH NEW WPC WHICH WAS AN ECMWF/NAEFS ENSEMBLE
SOLUTION.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ051-052.

&&

$$

EAL/PRB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU












000
FXAK67 PAJK 030002
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
302 PM AKST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...RATHER QUIET DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TODAY. MOST
AREAS ARE ENJOYING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING THROUGH. THE LACK OF CLOUDS DID RESULT IN SOME FOG AROUND
WRANGELL THIS MORNING, BUT WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND OUTFLOW
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, WHAT FOG THERE WAS DISSIPATED QUICKLY.
OTHERWISE THE ONLY REMAINING CONCERN IS DIMINISHING OUTFLOW WINDS
IN SKAGWAY, LYNN CANAL, AND STEPHENS PASSAGE. PAGY HAS REPORTED
GUSTS UP TO 27 KT SO FAR TODAY, AND ELDRED ROCK AND FIVE FINGERS
HAVE BOTH HAD 20 TO 25 KT WINDS MOST OF THE MORNING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA THAT BROUGHT THE OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
BE WEAKENING AND DROPPING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA BY THIS EVENING
BEFORE IT HEADS OFF TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT. REPLACING IT WILL
BE A WEAKER RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE BY TOMORROW. THE NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL DIMINISH AS A RESULT AND THEN TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE WEAKER RIDGE BUILDS ON TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS AS FORECAST PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL BE RATHER LOW FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE OTHER FEATURE OF CONCERN IS A WEAK FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING
IN FROM THE GULF THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NOT MUCH WIND OR
PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT AS IT IS FIGHTING THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
STILL PARKED OVER THE PANHANDLE. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE TONIGHT OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF NEAR CAPE SUCKLING AS A WEAK BARRIER JET
MAGNIFIES THE FRONTAL WINDS TO 30 KT. OTHER WISE MOST WINDS WILL
BE LESS THEN 25 KT. AS FOR PRECIP YAKUTAT WILL BE THE FIRST TO
SEE PRECIP. IT IS LIKELY TO START LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. YAKUTAT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR THE PRECIP TO START OUT AS SNOW EARLY TUE BUT IT SHOULD
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN BY LATER IN THE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM
UP AND WINDS TURN MORE SE. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THEN
1 INCH AS PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. FARTHER EAST THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL NOT SEE THE RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING AND
EVEN THEN IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW MUCH AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL BE FIGHTING THIS FRONT THE
WHOLE WAY. SOME AREAS MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX WITH SNOW
IN THE MORNING BUT MOST AREAS THAT GET PRECIP SHOULD BE RAIN BY
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THE
FARTHER EAST YOU GET THE LESS RAIN YOU WILL SEE. YAKUTAT HAS
CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POPS, THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE HAS CHANCE TO
LIKELY, AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
AS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FRONT IS THE MOST AFFECTED BY THE UPPER
RIDGE.

THE ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT IS ALSO PLAYING HAVOC WITH THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS VARYING CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS RESULTS IN SPREADS OF 4 TO 7 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS.
ENDED UP GOING WITH WARMING UP TEMP OVERNIGHT A FEW DEGREES FOR
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERING TEMPS OVER THE SOUTH WHERE MORE BREAKS WILL ALLOW AREAS
TO RADIATE OUT.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT. THE GFS SEEMED TO BE
A LITTLE BIT OF AN OUTLIER AS IT WAS JUST A BIT TOO FAST BRINGING
THE FRONT INLAND COMPARED TO JUST ABOUT EVERY OTHER MODEL. DECIDED
TO GO WITH NAM AND ECMWF FOR MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY AS THESE MODELS
SEEMED TO REPRESENT CURRENT FEATURES RATHER WELL.

.LONG TERM...SERIES OF RELATIVELY WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
INTO THE AK GULF THEN OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
RANGE FORECAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING
THE DETAILS OF THESE FEATURES SO THERE HAS BEEN RATHER LARGE MODEL
SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES. THE THERMAL PATTERN OVER
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE HAS SHOWN A WIDE RANGE IN SOLUTIONS, MAINLY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND PRECIP TYPE. USED A BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF
WITH INHERITED GRIDS AS IT WAS MORE OF A MID RANGE SOLUTION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE.

THE FRONT DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER
THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SECOND SHORT WAVES TRACKS
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WAVE WILL BERING IN
MORE PRECIP TOT HE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FORMING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THERE WILL BE
A 995 MB LOW IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
DIRECTLY TO THE NORTH TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AK
INTERIOR. THIS WAVE WILL DROP OVER THE PANHANDLE FROM THE NORTH TO
THE SOUTH WHERE IS INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE N
PACIFIC LOW. ALONG WITH ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIP THIS WAVE WILL
INCREASE WINDS OVER THE AK GULF AND PANHANDLE FOR THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING MARINE WINDS MUCH ABOVE 25 KT. FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE REMNANTS OF
THE BERING SEA LOW THAT IS CROSSING OVER THE AK INTERIOR THROUGH
THE WEEKEND THEN REACHING THE PANHANDLE BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

WHILE 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE -4 TO -6C RANGE FOR THE WAVES
MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WIND FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE TEMPS. KEEPING SOME MIX OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT FOR NORTHERN PANHANDLE BUT HAVE BACKED OFF ON SOME MIX
OF SNOW FOR LOCATIONS WHERE LOWS WILL BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

MODEL SPREAD BEGAN RATHER SOON WITH DIFFERENCES ALREADY WITH THE
WEDNESDAY WAVE. THE NAM WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVING THE WAVE INTO
THE SOUTHEAST GULF WITH THE GEM BARELY MOVING THE LOW OUT OF THE
WESTERN GULF, THE GFS WHILE FASTER THAN THE GEM WAS STILL ON THE
SLOW SIDE. SO USED THE 12 ECMWF WHICH WHILE HAS SHOWN SOME RUN
TO RUN DIFFERENCES WAS THE MID RANGE SOLUTION. FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED KEPT WITH NEW WPC WHICH WAS AN ECMWF/NAEFS ENSEMBLE
SOLUTION.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ051-052.

&&

$$

EAL/PRB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU












000
FXAK67 PAJK 021431
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
531 AM AKST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST TO
DIXON ENTRANCE AND PERSISTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN
CANADA. WATER VAPOR IMAGE REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL OMEGA BLOCK WITH
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF BORDER. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD SHIELDS CONTINUE TO RIDE THE RIDGE TOP AND MOVING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE COAST. FIVE FINGERS
REPORT SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS...BUT ELSEWHERE NO SIGNIFICANT
WINDS/SEAS ARE OBSERVED. BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER CANADA AND LOWER
PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST...SOME GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS ARE REPORTED. MOSTLY CLOUD FREE SKIES OVERNIGHT COOLED
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE...WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN IN THE MID 30S TO
THE LOWER 40S.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE OUTER COAST TO DIXON ENTRANCE
THIS MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER NORTHWESTERN CANADA.
AS THE TROUGH DISSIPATES LATE THIS MORNING...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
WEAKEN AND AS THE RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLE...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF
WILL PUSH AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT AND
SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE NORTHERNMOST OUTSIDE
WATERS TONIGHT. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE ECMWF
AND GEM GLOBAL FOR THEIR GOOD CONSENSUS.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUALLY MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. INSOLATION
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS SUNSHINE FILTERED THROUGH THE
CLOUD SHIELDS AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONCE AGAIN SOARING
INTO THE 40S. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
THE INCOMING FRONT...BUT THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN
TO THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S...EXCEPT IMMEDIATE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE COAST WHERE NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES/FRONTS IS INTO
THE YAKUTAT AREA BY TUE MORNING...BUT IT IS WEAK WITH THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP INTO YAKUTAT LATE TUE WITH LIGHT PRECIP OVER
MOSTLY THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. NORTHERN
FRINGE AT SEA LEVEL MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN. THE NEXT
WAVE IS STRONGER AND CLOSED ALOFT BY 03Z WED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF WITH A TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL GULF LATER ON WED. THIS ONE
SETS UP MOIST ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE...WITH A
CONNECTION TO PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH LATE WED. IT IS AT
THIS POINT WHERE WE SEE MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NAM SHOWING AN
ORGANIZED CLOSED LOW ALOFT WEST OF MARINE ZONE 310 AT 18Z THU AND
THE EC SHOWING OPEN WEAKER TROUGHING...PROGRESSIVE...MOVING
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME. GEM SOLUTION WAS MOSTLY
SIMILAR TO THE EC FOR THIS WAVE. MEANWHILE THE GFS SHOWS A LARGE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF AT THIS TIME
WITH CONVOLUTED DETAILS...ONE OF WHICH IS A WEAK WAVE IMPINGING ON
THE PANHANDLE. THUS THE NAM PREDICTION AT 72-84 HRS IS THE
OUTLIER. THIS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON DETAILS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
SOMEWHAT IN THE FORECAST FOR DAY 3 ONWARDS...THOUGH GENERAL
AGREEMENT ALOFT IN THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES OF THE EC/GEM/GFS WAS
REASONABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WENT WITH EXISTING 12Z WPC
GUIDANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FOR PRESSURE AND WINDS.
THE EC WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE WPC GUIDANCE AND THIS WAS ALSO
THE PREFERRED APPROACH FOR THERMODYNAMIC UPDATES TO THE MODEL
FIELDS. THOUGH THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THERMODYAMIC
DETAILS...APPEARS THAT THE YAKUTAT AND SKAGWAY AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THE SKAGWAY AND JUNEAU AREAS ON THURSDAY MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP. THE NORTHERN FRINGE ALONG WITH YAKUTAT BY
WEEKEND CONTINUE TO HAVE SHOTS FOR SNOW...BUT NO INTERIOR SOURCE
OF COLD AIR IS EVIDENT SO A TEMPORARY MIXED SCENARIO AT BEST IS
ANTICIPATED. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK REMAINED MOIST AS PATTERN
ADVERTISED BY WPC/EC REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW
AND PERIODS OF RAIN INTO THE WEEKEND. ALL MODELS PERSIST IN
BRINGING A STRONGER TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY LATE WEEKEND
WITH DEEP SWLY MOIST FLOW CONTINUING. RAINY WEATHER CONTINUES
RIGHT ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE EC/WPC GRIDS.

UTILIZED 00Z EC/NAM UPDATES AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR MOST THERMAL
UPDATES IN THIS PACKAGE. MODEL CONFIDENCE WAS AVERAGE AT BEST FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS BUT THE GENERAL PICTURE OF AN EXTENDED RAINY
PERIOD FROM LATE WED INTO THE WEEKEND IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
AT THIS POINT... WITH A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SITUATION FROM MIDWEEK INTO EARLY
WEEKEND. GENERAL INCREASE IN SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGINNING OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE LITTLE THREAT OF
HAZARD-LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ052.

&&

$$

AHN/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU












000
FXAK67 PAJK 021431
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
531 AM AKST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST TO
DIXON ENTRANCE AND PERSISTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN
CANADA. WATER VAPOR IMAGE REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL OMEGA BLOCK WITH
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF BORDER. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD SHIELDS CONTINUE TO RIDE THE RIDGE TOP AND MOVING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE COAST. FIVE FINGERS
REPORT SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS...BUT ELSEWHERE NO SIGNIFICANT
WINDS/SEAS ARE OBSERVED. BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER CANADA AND LOWER
PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST...SOME GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS ARE REPORTED. MOSTLY CLOUD FREE SKIES OVERNIGHT COOLED
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE...WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN IN THE MID 30S TO
THE LOWER 40S.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE OUTER COAST TO DIXON ENTRANCE
THIS MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER NORTHWESTERN CANADA.
AS THE TROUGH DISSIPATES LATE THIS MORNING...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
WEAKEN AND AS THE RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLE...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF
WILL PUSH AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT AND
SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE NORTHERNMOST OUTSIDE
WATERS TONIGHT. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE ECMWF
AND GEM GLOBAL FOR THEIR GOOD CONSENSUS.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUALLY MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. INSOLATION
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS SUNSHINE FILTERED THROUGH THE
CLOUD SHIELDS AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONCE AGAIN SOARING
INTO THE 40S. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
THE INCOMING FRONT...BUT THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN
TO THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S...EXCEPT IMMEDIATE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE COAST WHERE NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES/FRONTS IS INTO
THE YAKUTAT AREA BY TUE MORNING...BUT IT IS WEAK WITH THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP INTO YAKUTAT LATE TUE WITH LIGHT PRECIP OVER
MOSTLY THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. NORTHERN
FRINGE AT SEA LEVEL MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN. THE NEXT
WAVE IS STRONGER AND CLOSED ALOFT BY 03Z WED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF WITH A TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL GULF LATER ON WED. THIS ONE
SETS UP MOIST ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE...WITH A
CONNECTION TO PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH LATE WED. IT IS AT
THIS POINT WHERE WE SEE MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NAM SHOWING AN
ORGANIZED CLOSED LOW ALOFT WEST OF MARINE ZONE 310 AT 18Z THU AND
THE EC SHOWING OPEN WEAKER TROUGHING...PROGRESSIVE...MOVING
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME. GEM SOLUTION WAS MOSTLY
SIMILAR TO THE EC FOR THIS WAVE. MEANWHILE THE GFS SHOWS A LARGE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF AT THIS TIME
WITH CONVOLUTED DETAILS...ONE OF WHICH IS A WEAK WAVE IMPINGING ON
THE PANHANDLE. THUS THE NAM PREDICTION AT 72-84 HRS IS THE
OUTLIER. THIS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON DETAILS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
SOMEWHAT IN THE FORECAST FOR DAY 3 ONWARDS...THOUGH GENERAL
AGREEMENT ALOFT IN THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES OF THE EC/GEM/GFS WAS
REASONABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WENT WITH EXISTING 12Z WPC
GUIDANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FOR PRESSURE AND WINDS.
THE EC WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE WPC GUIDANCE AND THIS WAS ALSO
THE PREFERRED APPROACH FOR THERMODYNAMIC UPDATES TO THE MODEL
FIELDS. THOUGH THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THERMODYAMIC
DETAILS...APPEARS THAT THE YAKUTAT AND SKAGWAY AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THE SKAGWAY AND JUNEAU AREAS ON THURSDAY MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP. THE NORTHERN FRINGE ALONG WITH YAKUTAT BY
WEEKEND CONTINUE TO HAVE SHOTS FOR SNOW...BUT NO INTERIOR SOURCE
OF COLD AIR IS EVIDENT SO A TEMPORARY MIXED SCENARIO AT BEST IS
ANTICIPATED. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK REMAINED MOIST AS PATTERN
ADVERTISED BY WPC/EC REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW
AND PERIODS OF RAIN INTO THE WEEKEND. ALL MODELS PERSIST IN
BRINGING A STRONGER TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY LATE WEEKEND
WITH DEEP SWLY MOIST FLOW CONTINUING. RAINY WEATHER CONTINUES
RIGHT ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE EC/WPC GRIDS.

UTILIZED 00Z EC/NAM UPDATES AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR MOST THERMAL
UPDATES IN THIS PACKAGE. MODEL CONFIDENCE WAS AVERAGE AT BEST FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS BUT THE GENERAL PICTURE OF AN EXTENDED RAINY
PERIOD FROM LATE WED INTO THE WEEKEND IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
AT THIS POINT... WITH A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SITUATION FROM MIDWEEK INTO EARLY
WEEKEND. GENERAL INCREASE IN SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGINNING OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE LITTLE THREAT OF
HAZARD-LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ052.

&&

$$

AHN/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU













000
FXAK67 PAJK 021431
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
531 AM AKST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST TO
DIXON ENTRANCE AND PERSISTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN
CANADA. WATER VAPOR IMAGE REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL OMEGA BLOCK WITH
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF BORDER. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD SHIELDS CONTINUE TO RIDE THE RIDGE TOP AND MOVING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE COAST. FIVE FINGERS
REPORT SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS...BUT ELSEWHERE NO SIGNIFICANT
WINDS/SEAS ARE OBSERVED. BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER CANADA AND LOWER
PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST...SOME GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS ARE REPORTED. MOSTLY CLOUD FREE SKIES OVERNIGHT COOLED
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE...WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN IN THE MID 30S TO
THE LOWER 40S.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE OUTER COAST TO DIXON ENTRANCE
THIS MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER NORTHWESTERN CANADA.
AS THE TROUGH DISSIPATES LATE THIS MORNING...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
WEAKEN AND AS THE RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLE...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF
WILL PUSH AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT AND
SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE NORTHERNMOST OUTSIDE
WATERS TONIGHT. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE ECMWF
AND GEM GLOBAL FOR THEIR GOOD CONSENSUS.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUALLY MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. INSOLATION
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS SUNSHINE FILTERED THROUGH THE
CLOUD SHIELDS AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONCE AGAIN SOARING
INTO THE 40S. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
THE INCOMING FRONT...BUT THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN
TO THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S...EXCEPT IMMEDIATE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE COAST WHERE NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES/FRONTS IS INTO
THE YAKUTAT AREA BY TUE MORNING...BUT IT IS WEAK WITH THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP INTO YAKUTAT LATE TUE WITH LIGHT PRECIP OVER
MOSTLY THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. NORTHERN
FRINGE AT SEA LEVEL MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN. THE NEXT
WAVE IS STRONGER AND CLOSED ALOFT BY 03Z WED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF WITH A TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL GULF LATER ON WED. THIS ONE
SETS UP MOIST ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE...WITH A
CONNECTION TO PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH LATE WED. IT IS AT
THIS POINT WHERE WE SEE MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NAM SHOWING AN
ORGANIZED CLOSED LOW ALOFT WEST OF MARINE ZONE 310 AT 18Z THU AND
THE EC SHOWING OPEN WEAKER TROUGHING...PROGRESSIVE...MOVING
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME. GEM SOLUTION WAS MOSTLY
SIMILAR TO THE EC FOR THIS WAVE. MEANWHILE THE GFS SHOWS A LARGE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF AT THIS TIME
WITH CONVOLUTED DETAILS...ONE OF WHICH IS A WEAK WAVE IMPINGING ON
THE PANHANDLE. THUS THE NAM PREDICTION AT 72-84 HRS IS THE
OUTLIER. THIS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON DETAILS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
SOMEWHAT IN THE FORECAST FOR DAY 3 ONWARDS...THOUGH GENERAL
AGREEMENT ALOFT IN THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES OF THE EC/GEM/GFS WAS
REASONABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WENT WITH EXISTING 12Z WPC
GUIDANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FOR PRESSURE AND WINDS.
THE EC WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE WPC GUIDANCE AND THIS WAS ALSO
THE PREFERRED APPROACH FOR THERMODYNAMIC UPDATES TO THE MODEL
FIELDS. THOUGH THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THERMODYAMIC
DETAILS...APPEARS THAT THE YAKUTAT AND SKAGWAY AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THE SKAGWAY AND JUNEAU AREAS ON THURSDAY MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP. THE NORTHERN FRINGE ALONG WITH YAKUTAT BY
WEEKEND CONTINUE TO HAVE SHOTS FOR SNOW...BUT NO INTERIOR SOURCE
OF COLD AIR IS EVIDENT SO A TEMPORARY MIXED SCENARIO AT BEST IS
ANTICIPATED. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK REMAINED MOIST AS PATTERN
ADVERTISED BY WPC/EC REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW
AND PERIODS OF RAIN INTO THE WEEKEND. ALL MODELS PERSIST IN
BRINGING A STRONGER TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY LATE WEEKEND
WITH DEEP SWLY MOIST FLOW CONTINUING. RAINY WEATHER CONTINUES
RIGHT ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE EC/WPC GRIDS.

UTILIZED 00Z EC/NAM UPDATES AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR MOST THERMAL
UPDATES IN THIS PACKAGE. MODEL CONFIDENCE WAS AVERAGE AT BEST FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS BUT THE GENERAL PICTURE OF AN EXTENDED RAINY
PERIOD FROM LATE WED INTO THE WEEKEND IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
AT THIS POINT... WITH A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SITUATION FROM MIDWEEK INTO EARLY
WEEKEND. GENERAL INCREASE IN SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGINNING OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE LITTLE THREAT OF
HAZARD-LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ052.

&&

$$

AHN/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU












000
FXAK67 PAJK 021431
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
531 AM AKST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST TO
DIXON ENTRANCE AND PERSISTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN
CANADA. WATER VAPOR IMAGE REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL OMEGA BLOCK WITH
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF BORDER. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD SHIELDS CONTINUE TO RIDE THE RIDGE TOP AND MOVING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE COAST. FIVE FINGERS
REPORT SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS...BUT ELSEWHERE NO SIGNIFICANT
WINDS/SEAS ARE OBSERVED. BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER CANADA AND LOWER
PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST...SOME GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS ARE REPORTED. MOSTLY CLOUD FREE SKIES OVERNIGHT COOLED
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE...WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN IN THE MID 30S TO
THE LOWER 40S.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE OUTER COAST TO DIXON ENTRANCE
THIS MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER NORTHWESTERN CANADA.
AS THE TROUGH DISSIPATES LATE THIS MORNING...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
WEAKEN AND AS THE RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLE...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF
WILL PUSH AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT AND
SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE NORTHERNMOST OUTSIDE
WATERS TONIGHT. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE ECMWF
AND GEM GLOBAL FOR THEIR GOOD CONSENSUS.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUALLY MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. INSOLATION
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS SUNSHINE FILTERED THROUGH THE
CLOUD SHIELDS AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONCE AGAIN SOARING
INTO THE 40S. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
THE INCOMING FRONT...BUT THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN
TO THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S...EXCEPT IMMEDIATE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE COAST WHERE NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES/FRONTS IS INTO
THE YAKUTAT AREA BY TUE MORNING...BUT IT IS WEAK WITH THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP INTO YAKUTAT LATE TUE WITH LIGHT PRECIP OVER
MOSTLY THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. NORTHERN
FRINGE AT SEA LEVEL MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN. THE NEXT
WAVE IS STRONGER AND CLOSED ALOFT BY 03Z WED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF WITH A TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL GULF LATER ON WED. THIS ONE
SETS UP MOIST ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE...WITH A
CONNECTION TO PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH LATE WED. IT IS AT
THIS POINT WHERE WE SEE MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NAM SHOWING AN
ORGANIZED CLOSED LOW ALOFT WEST OF MARINE ZONE 310 AT 18Z THU AND
THE EC SHOWING OPEN WEAKER TROUGHING...PROGRESSIVE...MOVING
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME. GEM SOLUTION WAS MOSTLY
SIMILAR TO THE EC FOR THIS WAVE. MEANWHILE THE GFS SHOWS A LARGE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF AT THIS TIME
WITH CONVOLUTED DETAILS...ONE OF WHICH IS A WEAK WAVE IMPINGING ON
THE PANHANDLE. THUS THE NAM PREDICTION AT 72-84 HRS IS THE
OUTLIER. THIS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON DETAILS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
SOMEWHAT IN THE FORECAST FOR DAY 3 ONWARDS...THOUGH GENERAL
AGREEMENT ALOFT IN THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES OF THE EC/GEM/GFS WAS
REASONABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WENT WITH EXISTING 12Z WPC
GUIDANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FOR PRESSURE AND WINDS.
THE EC WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE WPC GUIDANCE AND THIS WAS ALSO
THE PREFERRED APPROACH FOR THERMODYNAMIC UPDATES TO THE MODEL
FIELDS. THOUGH THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THERMODYAMIC
DETAILS...APPEARS THAT THE YAKUTAT AND SKAGWAY AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THE SKAGWAY AND JUNEAU AREAS ON THURSDAY MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP. THE NORTHERN FRINGE ALONG WITH YAKUTAT BY
WEEKEND CONTINUE TO HAVE SHOTS FOR SNOW...BUT NO INTERIOR SOURCE
OF COLD AIR IS EVIDENT SO A TEMPORARY MIXED SCENARIO AT BEST IS
ANTICIPATED. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK REMAINED MOIST AS PATTERN
ADVERTISED BY WPC/EC REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW
AND PERIODS OF RAIN INTO THE WEEKEND. ALL MODELS PERSIST IN
BRINGING A STRONGER TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY LATE WEEKEND
WITH DEEP SWLY MOIST FLOW CONTINUING. RAINY WEATHER CONTINUES
RIGHT ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE EC/WPC GRIDS.

UTILIZED 00Z EC/NAM UPDATES AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR MOST THERMAL
UPDATES IN THIS PACKAGE. MODEL CONFIDENCE WAS AVERAGE AT BEST FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS BUT THE GENERAL PICTURE OF AN EXTENDED RAINY
PERIOD FROM LATE WED INTO THE WEEKEND IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
AT THIS POINT... WITH A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SITUATION FROM MIDWEEK INTO EARLY
WEEKEND. GENERAL INCREASE IN SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGINNING OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE LITTLE THREAT OF
HAZARD-LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ052.

&&

$$

AHN/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU













000
FXAK67 PAJK 020006
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
306 PM AKST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THRU MON. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF TONIGHT...THEN
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE OUTER COAST OF SE AK MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE YUKON TONIGHT..THEN DRIFT SLOWLY E MON. INVERTED
SFC TROF WILL REMAIN ALONG THE OUTER COAST OF SE PUBLIC...BUT WEAKEN
SOME MON. A WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE NE INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF BY LATE MON AFTERNOON. MODELS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE ON THESE
FEATURES...AND CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO CHANGES WERE
MINIMAL TO THIS FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS...TEMPS...AND FOG POTENTIAL.
RIGHT NOW...HAVE 20-25 KT NLY WINDS OVER THE NRN INNER CHANNELS
WITH JUST A BIT LESS OVER THE S. THINK WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME
OVER THE N...BUT SHOULD NOT GET ABOVE SCA LEVELS. MAY SEE
INCREASING WINDS FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AS WELL
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE AS A WEAK MTN WAVE EVENT
IS LIKELY. THESE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN SOME MON AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
FOR TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 15 KT OR LESS. ON
MON...THE N-S CHANNEL WINDS SHOULD START TO WEAKEN SOME BUT THE
E-W CHANNEL WINDS WILL PICK UP AS PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION
BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE TO ELY FLOW. ALSO...WILL SEE INCREASING
SELY FLOW OVER THE WRN PART OF THE GULF MARINE AREA...WITH 20 KT
LIKELY BY MON AFTERNOON AS OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.

AS FOR TEMPS...WILL SEE SOME LARGE SPREAD TONIGHT. TEMPS FOR WIND
SHELTERED AREAS WILL LIKELY PLUNGE WELL INTO THE 20S MOST
PLACES...WITH LOCALLY MID TO UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE
MENDENHALL VALLEY. WHERE WINDS STAY UP...TEMPS MAY END UP ONLY
FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ON MON...WITH STILL A LOT OF
SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS AND AN OFFSHORE FLOW...TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER WELL INTO THE 40S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A COUPLE
SPOTS HIT 50...ESPECIALLY OVER THE S.

AS FOR THE FOG POTENTIAL...THINK ANY FOG WILL BE PATCHY AND
LOCALIZED TO WIND SHELTERED AREAS...AND THIS WILL BE MOSTLY OVER
THE S. DECIDED TO KEEP FOG MENTION OUT FOR THE N DUE TO BETTER
DRYING DURING THE DAY TODAY AND A BIT MORE WIND AROUND IN GENERAL.
CANNOT RULE OUT A SMALL PATCH OF FOG FOR THE LEMON CREEK AREA
THOUGH FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING.

.LONG TERM...COLLAPSING UPPER RIDGE MID TO LATE WEEK
TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THE WEEKEND IS WHAT IS MAINLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WETTER TREND IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL BE HELPING THE TRANSITION
ALONG AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE OVERALL PATTERN.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE THROUGH COMES THROUGH ON TUE. MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE AS THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH
ADJUSTMENT BY THE MODELS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. MAIN EFFECTS WILL
BE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE ON TUE AND
RAIN FOR THE YAKUTAT AREA (WITH SOME POSSIBLE SNOW EARLY TUE).
AREAS FARTHER EAST ARE MORE PROTECTED FROM PRECIP BY THE STILL
STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT THIS SHORT WAVE IS FIGHTING AGAINST. KEPT
POPS AT CHANCE HOWEVER FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE (YAKUTAT HAS
CATEGORICAL) AS THE DYNAMICS OF THE TROUGH COULD STILL BE ENOUGH
TO OVERCOME THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

A SECOND TROUGH COMES ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST ON WED AND WILL BE
THE ONE THAT DESTROYS THE RIDGE. IT WILL ALSO BE THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO TO BRING PRECIP TO THE PANHANDLE. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING
SOME TROUBLE REPRESENTING THIS SYSTEM AS THEY TRY AND DEAL WITH
THE PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS. GFS SEEMS TO
BE AN OUTLIER AS ITS 12Z RUN BROUGHT A 1005 MB LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF ON WED. MOST OF THE REST OF THE MODELS WENT WITH A
WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NEAR KODIAK AND UP TO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST INSTEAD. DECIDED ON USING THIS SCENARIO FOR
THE FORECAST WHICH STILL RESULTS IN A WET WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR
MOST OF THE PANHANDLE.

INTO THE WEEKEND THE GENERAL TREND REMAINS WET AS PIECES OF ENERGY
FIRST FROM THE SOUTH ON FRI NIGHT AND THEN FROM THE WEST LATER IN
THE WEEKEND. MOST MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS BUT THE DETAILS
ARE STILL IN DEPUTE. GENERALLY USED MAINLY GEM AND ECMWF FOR LATE
WEEK THEN TRANSITIONED TO SOME WPC DATA WHERE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-031.

&&

$$

RWT/EAL

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 020006
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
306 PM AKST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THRU MON. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF TONIGHT...THEN
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE OUTER COAST OF SE AK MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE YUKON TONIGHT..THEN DRIFT SLOWLY E MON. INVERTED
SFC TROF WILL REMAIN ALONG THE OUTER COAST OF SE PUBLIC...BUT WEAKEN
SOME MON. A WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE NE INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF BY LATE MON AFTERNOON. MODELS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE ON THESE
FEATURES...AND CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO CHANGES WERE
MINIMAL TO THIS FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS...TEMPS...AND FOG POTENTIAL.
RIGHT NOW...HAVE 20-25 KT NLY WINDS OVER THE NRN INNER CHANNELS
WITH JUST A BIT LESS OVER THE S. THINK WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME
OVER THE N...BUT SHOULD NOT GET ABOVE SCA LEVELS. MAY SEE
INCREASING WINDS FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AS WELL
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE AS A WEAK MTN WAVE EVENT
IS LIKELY. THESE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN SOME MON AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
FOR TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 15 KT OR LESS. ON
MON...THE N-S CHANNEL WINDS SHOULD START TO WEAKEN SOME BUT THE
E-W CHANNEL WINDS WILL PICK UP AS PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION
BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE TO ELY FLOW. ALSO...WILL SEE INCREASING
SELY FLOW OVER THE WRN PART OF THE GULF MARINE AREA...WITH 20 KT
LIKELY BY MON AFTERNOON AS OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.

AS FOR TEMPS...WILL SEE SOME LARGE SPREAD TONIGHT. TEMPS FOR WIND
SHELTERED AREAS WILL LIKELY PLUNGE WELL INTO THE 20S MOST
PLACES...WITH LOCALLY MID TO UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE
MENDENHALL VALLEY. WHERE WINDS STAY UP...TEMPS MAY END UP ONLY
FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ON MON...WITH STILL A LOT OF
SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS AND AN OFFSHORE FLOW...TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER WELL INTO THE 40S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A COUPLE
SPOTS HIT 50...ESPECIALLY OVER THE S.

AS FOR THE FOG POTENTIAL...THINK ANY FOG WILL BE PATCHY AND
LOCALIZED TO WIND SHELTERED AREAS...AND THIS WILL BE MOSTLY OVER
THE S. DECIDED TO KEEP FOG MENTION OUT FOR THE N DUE TO BETTER
DRYING DURING THE DAY TODAY AND A BIT MORE WIND AROUND IN GENERAL.
CANNOT RULE OUT A SMALL PATCH OF FOG FOR THE LEMON CREEK AREA
THOUGH FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING.

.LONG TERM...COLLAPSING UPPER RIDGE MID TO LATE WEEK
TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THE WEEKEND IS WHAT IS MAINLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WETTER TREND IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL BE HELPING THE TRANSITION
ALONG AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE OVERALL PATTERN.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE THROUGH COMES THROUGH ON TUE. MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE AS THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH
ADJUSTMENT BY THE MODELS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. MAIN EFFECTS WILL
BE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE ON TUE AND
RAIN FOR THE YAKUTAT AREA (WITH SOME POSSIBLE SNOW EARLY TUE).
AREAS FARTHER EAST ARE MORE PROTECTED FROM PRECIP BY THE STILL
STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT THIS SHORT WAVE IS FIGHTING AGAINST. KEPT
POPS AT CHANCE HOWEVER FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE (YAKUTAT HAS
CATEGORICAL) AS THE DYNAMICS OF THE TROUGH COULD STILL BE ENOUGH
TO OVERCOME THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

A SECOND TROUGH COMES ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST ON WED AND WILL BE
THE ONE THAT DESTROYS THE RIDGE. IT WILL ALSO BE THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO TO BRING PRECIP TO THE PANHANDLE. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING
SOME TROUBLE REPRESENTING THIS SYSTEM AS THEY TRY AND DEAL WITH
THE PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS. GFS SEEMS TO
BE AN OUTLIER AS ITS 12Z RUN BROUGHT A 1005 MB LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF ON WED. MOST OF THE REST OF THE MODELS WENT WITH A
WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NEAR KODIAK AND UP TO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST INSTEAD. DECIDED ON USING THIS SCENARIO FOR
THE FORECAST WHICH STILL RESULTS IN A WET WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR
MOST OF THE PANHANDLE.

INTO THE WEEKEND THE GENERAL TREND REMAINS WET AS PIECES OF ENERGY
FIRST FROM THE SOUTH ON FRI NIGHT AND THEN FROM THE WEST LATER IN
THE WEEKEND. MOST MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS BUT THE DETAILS
ARE STILL IN DEPUTE. GENERALLY USED MAINLY GEM AND ECMWF FOR LATE
WEEK THEN TRANSITIONED TO SOME WPC DATA WHERE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-031.

&&

$$

RWT/EAL

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 020006
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
306 PM AKST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THRU MON. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF TONIGHT...THEN
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE OUTER COAST OF SE AK MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE YUKON TONIGHT..THEN DRIFT SLOWLY E MON. INVERTED
SFC TROF WILL REMAIN ALONG THE OUTER COAST OF SE PUBLIC...BUT WEAKEN
SOME MON. A WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE NE INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF BY LATE MON AFTERNOON. MODELS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE ON THESE
FEATURES...AND CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO CHANGES WERE
MINIMAL TO THIS FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS...TEMPS...AND FOG POTENTIAL.
RIGHT NOW...HAVE 20-25 KT NLY WINDS OVER THE NRN INNER CHANNELS
WITH JUST A BIT LESS OVER THE S. THINK WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME
OVER THE N...BUT SHOULD NOT GET ABOVE SCA LEVELS. MAY SEE
INCREASING WINDS FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AS WELL
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE AS A WEAK MTN WAVE EVENT
IS LIKELY. THESE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN SOME MON AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
FOR TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 15 KT OR LESS. ON
MON...THE N-S CHANNEL WINDS SHOULD START TO WEAKEN SOME BUT THE
E-W CHANNEL WINDS WILL PICK UP AS PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION
BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE TO ELY FLOW. ALSO...WILL SEE INCREASING
SELY FLOW OVER THE WRN PART OF THE GULF MARINE AREA...WITH 20 KT
LIKELY BY MON AFTERNOON AS OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.

AS FOR TEMPS...WILL SEE SOME LARGE SPREAD TONIGHT. TEMPS FOR WIND
SHELTERED AREAS WILL LIKELY PLUNGE WELL INTO THE 20S MOST
PLACES...WITH LOCALLY MID TO UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE
MENDENHALL VALLEY. WHERE WINDS STAY UP...TEMPS MAY END UP ONLY
FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ON MON...WITH STILL A LOT OF
SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS AND AN OFFSHORE FLOW...TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER WELL INTO THE 40S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A COUPLE
SPOTS HIT 50...ESPECIALLY OVER THE S.

AS FOR THE FOG POTENTIAL...THINK ANY FOG WILL BE PATCHY AND
LOCALIZED TO WIND SHELTERED AREAS...AND THIS WILL BE MOSTLY OVER
THE S. DECIDED TO KEEP FOG MENTION OUT FOR THE N DUE TO BETTER
DRYING DURING THE DAY TODAY AND A BIT MORE WIND AROUND IN GENERAL.
CANNOT RULE OUT A SMALL PATCH OF FOG FOR THE LEMON CREEK AREA
THOUGH FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING.

.LONG TERM...COLLAPSING UPPER RIDGE MID TO LATE WEEK
TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THE WEEKEND IS WHAT IS MAINLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WETTER TREND IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL BE HELPING THE TRANSITION
ALONG AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE OVERALL PATTERN.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE THROUGH COMES THROUGH ON TUE. MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE AS THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH
ADJUSTMENT BY THE MODELS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. MAIN EFFECTS WILL
BE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE ON TUE AND
RAIN FOR THE YAKUTAT AREA (WITH SOME POSSIBLE SNOW EARLY TUE).
AREAS FARTHER EAST ARE MORE PROTECTED FROM PRECIP BY THE STILL
STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT THIS SHORT WAVE IS FIGHTING AGAINST. KEPT
POPS AT CHANCE HOWEVER FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE (YAKUTAT HAS
CATEGORICAL) AS THE DYNAMICS OF THE TROUGH COULD STILL BE ENOUGH
TO OVERCOME THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

A SECOND TROUGH COMES ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST ON WED AND WILL BE
THE ONE THAT DESTROYS THE RIDGE. IT WILL ALSO BE THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO TO BRING PRECIP TO THE PANHANDLE. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING
SOME TROUBLE REPRESENTING THIS SYSTEM AS THEY TRY AND DEAL WITH
THE PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS. GFS SEEMS TO
BE AN OUTLIER AS ITS 12Z RUN BROUGHT A 1005 MB LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF ON WED. MOST OF THE REST OF THE MODELS WENT WITH A
WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NEAR KODIAK AND UP TO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST INSTEAD. DECIDED ON USING THIS SCENARIO FOR
THE FORECAST WHICH STILL RESULTS IN A WET WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR
MOST OF THE PANHANDLE.

INTO THE WEEKEND THE GENERAL TREND REMAINS WET AS PIECES OF ENERGY
FIRST FROM THE SOUTH ON FRI NIGHT AND THEN FROM THE WEST LATER IN
THE WEEKEND. MOST MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS BUT THE DETAILS
ARE STILL IN DEPUTE. GENERALLY USED MAINLY GEM AND ECMWF FOR LATE
WEEK THEN TRANSITIONED TO SOME WPC DATA WHERE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-031.

&&

$$

RWT/EAL

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 020006
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
306 PM AKST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THRU MON. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF TONIGHT...THEN
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE OUTER COAST OF SE AK MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE YUKON TONIGHT..THEN DRIFT SLOWLY E MON. INVERTED
SFC TROF WILL REMAIN ALONG THE OUTER COAST OF SE PUBLIC...BUT WEAKEN
SOME MON. A WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE NE INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF BY LATE MON AFTERNOON. MODELS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE ON THESE
FEATURES...AND CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO CHANGES WERE
MINIMAL TO THIS FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS...TEMPS...AND FOG POTENTIAL.
RIGHT NOW...HAVE 20-25 KT NLY WINDS OVER THE NRN INNER CHANNELS
WITH JUST A BIT LESS OVER THE S. THINK WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME
OVER THE N...BUT SHOULD NOT GET ABOVE SCA LEVELS. MAY SEE
INCREASING WINDS FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AS WELL
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE AS A WEAK MTN WAVE EVENT
IS LIKELY. THESE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN SOME MON AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
FOR TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 15 KT OR LESS. ON
MON...THE N-S CHANNEL WINDS SHOULD START TO WEAKEN SOME BUT THE
E-W CHANNEL WINDS WILL PICK UP AS PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION
BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE TO ELY FLOW. ALSO...WILL SEE INCREASING
SELY FLOW OVER THE WRN PART OF THE GULF MARINE AREA...WITH 20 KT
LIKELY BY MON AFTERNOON AS OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.

AS FOR TEMPS...WILL SEE SOME LARGE SPREAD TONIGHT. TEMPS FOR WIND
SHELTERED AREAS WILL LIKELY PLUNGE WELL INTO THE 20S MOST
PLACES...WITH LOCALLY MID TO UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE
MENDENHALL VALLEY. WHERE WINDS STAY UP...TEMPS MAY END UP ONLY
FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ON MON...WITH STILL A LOT OF
SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS AND AN OFFSHORE FLOW...TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER WELL INTO THE 40S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A COUPLE
SPOTS HIT 50...ESPECIALLY OVER THE S.

AS FOR THE FOG POTENTIAL...THINK ANY FOG WILL BE PATCHY AND
LOCALIZED TO WIND SHELTERED AREAS...AND THIS WILL BE MOSTLY OVER
THE S. DECIDED TO KEEP FOG MENTION OUT FOR THE N DUE TO BETTER
DRYING DURING THE DAY TODAY AND A BIT MORE WIND AROUND IN GENERAL.
CANNOT RULE OUT A SMALL PATCH OF FOG FOR THE LEMON CREEK AREA
THOUGH FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING.

.LONG TERM...COLLAPSING UPPER RIDGE MID TO LATE WEEK
TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THE WEEKEND IS WHAT IS MAINLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WETTER TREND IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL BE HELPING THE TRANSITION
ALONG AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE OVERALL PATTERN.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE THROUGH COMES THROUGH ON TUE. MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE AS THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH
ADJUSTMENT BY THE MODELS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. MAIN EFFECTS WILL
BE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE ON TUE AND
RAIN FOR THE YAKUTAT AREA (WITH SOME POSSIBLE SNOW EARLY TUE).
AREAS FARTHER EAST ARE MORE PROTECTED FROM PRECIP BY THE STILL
STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT THIS SHORT WAVE IS FIGHTING AGAINST. KEPT
POPS AT CHANCE HOWEVER FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE (YAKUTAT HAS
CATEGORICAL) AS THE DYNAMICS OF THE TROUGH COULD STILL BE ENOUGH
TO OVERCOME THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

A SECOND TROUGH COMES ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST ON WED AND WILL BE
THE ONE THAT DESTROYS THE RIDGE. IT WILL ALSO BE THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO TO BRING PRECIP TO THE PANHANDLE. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING
SOME TROUBLE REPRESENTING THIS SYSTEM AS THEY TRY AND DEAL WITH
THE PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS. GFS SEEMS TO
BE AN OUTLIER AS ITS 12Z RUN BROUGHT A 1005 MB LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF ON WED. MOST OF THE REST OF THE MODELS WENT WITH A
WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NEAR KODIAK AND UP TO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST INSTEAD. DECIDED ON USING THIS SCENARIO FOR
THE FORECAST WHICH STILL RESULTS IN A WET WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR
MOST OF THE PANHANDLE.

INTO THE WEEKEND THE GENERAL TREND REMAINS WET AS PIECES OF ENERGY
FIRST FROM THE SOUTH ON FRI NIGHT AND THEN FROM THE WEST LATER IN
THE WEEKEND. MOST MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS BUT THE DETAILS
ARE STILL IN DEPUTE. GENERALLY USED MAINLY GEM AND ECMWF FOR LATE
WEEK THEN TRANSITIONED TO SOME WPC DATA WHERE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-031.

&&

$$

RWT/EAL

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









000
FXAK67 PAJK 011411
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
511 AM AKST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. A WEAK IMPULSE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
OVER THE PANHANDLE WITH LIGHT RAIN FROM SITKA EAST TO JUNEAU AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS/SEAS ARE REPORTED
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 OVER THE NORTHERNMOST
PANHANDLE TO THE MID 30S IN THE CENTRAL ZONES TO THE LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. A RAPID CLEARING OCCURS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST AND CLOUDS BEGIN DECREASING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ONE THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BECOMES AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE OUTER COAST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER NORTHWESTERN
CANADA. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM
GLOBAL FOR THEIR GOOD CONSENSUS FOR PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS. USED
THE SREF POPS AND QPF GUIDANCE TO HANDLE THE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
RAIN BAND OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. HEAVILY USED THE MOS
TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASING RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER CLOUD FREE SKIES.

EXPECT RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO DIMINISH BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASING INSOLATION WILL BRING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY INTO THE 40S. ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT WILL BRING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 20S EXCEPT
IN THE LOWER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST AREAS. SOME WIND PROTECTED
LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE MERCURY DROPPING DOWN TO THE MID TEENS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CANADA
AND THE INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE OUTER WATERS WILL TIGHTEN
NORTHEASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT LEVEL NORTHERLY
WINDS OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL THIS EVENING AND
EXPAND SOUTH TO STEPHENS PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...AFTER A MOSTLY CLEAR, COLD SUN NIGHT...EXPECT A DRY
DAY ON MONDAY WITH CONTINUED OUTFLOW WINDS IN FAVORED AREAS FROM
THE REMAINS OF THE CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH CURRENTLY. SCA-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY IN LYNN CANAL AND IN STEPHENS PASSAGE INTO THE
MORNING. THE RIDGE ALOFT IS SHARP AND SHORT-LIVED...AXIS PASSES
EAST OF THE PANHANDLE AFTER 09Z TUE. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE FAR WESTERN OCEAN
AREAS AS EARLY AS 15Z MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE BEGINNING OF
THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE SLOW APPROACH OF A SHARP
BUT POORLY ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH ON THE 00Z GFS/EC MODELS ANYWAY.
PRECIPITATION AND A WEAK FRONT ARRIVES IN THE YAKUTAT AREA BY 12Z
TUE. THE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM MEANS WEAK IMPACTS ON
WINDS AND ONLY CHANCES OF RAIN IN MOSTLY THE NORTHERN COASTAL
THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES ONSHORE BY 12Z WED.
AT THAT POINT MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED IN
YAKUTAT. THE NAM 06Z RUN IS SHOWING MORE A MORE ORGANIZED FRONT
AND SSW ONSHORE FLOW AT THIS POINT BUT THIS MODEL SOLUTION IS THE
OUTLIER AT THIS POINT WITH THE EC/GFS/GEM SHOWING WEAKER GRADIENTS AND
LESS ORGANIZED DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE CAUSE OF THIS EXAGGERATION APPEARS
TO BE A 532 DM 500MB CLOSED LOW ON THE NAM IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
GULF AT 12Z WED. THE EC/GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS SHOW OPEN TROUGHING AT THIS
POINT. WITH THIS IN MIND UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH PRIMARILY EC DATA
THROUGH WED. DEEP SWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AFTER THIS TROUGH PASSAGE.
AFTER THE PRIMARY PORTION OF THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
LATER ON WED/THU...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED CLOSED
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE EARLY THU....A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
DOMINATES THROUGH FRIDAY AM ON THE EC/GFS BUT WITH A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY FRI AM ON THE GEM. THE EC IS A
BIT SLOWER WITH THE TEMPORARY RIDGE AS THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN
TO GRADUALLY DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. A NEW STRONGER LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH ENTERS THE GULF FROM THE WEST FOLLOWING THE RIDGE EPISODE
ON FRI ON BOTH THE EC/GFS. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IS SHOWN ON THESE
TWO MODELS INTO NEXT WEEKEND OVERALL...AND THIS CHARACTERIZED THE
ENSEMBLE WPC GUIDANCE FROM YESTERDAY...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL DETAILS
ARE DIFFICULT TO EVALUATE PAST ABOUT THU. APPEARS LIKELY THAT
MOIST CONDITIONS WITH ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE AFTER THE
BRIEF RIDGE EPISODE LATE THU. THIS LED US TO SET UP LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS AREA-WIDE DURING THE FRI-SAT PERIOD ON THE NEW FORECAST
PACKAGE.

WITH GREATER THAN AVERAGE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
GFS/EC SOLUTIONS...PRIMARY UPDATES WERE TO WARM UP THE ZONE SITES AT NIGHT
FROM TUE ONWARD AS ONSHORE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW
NOCTURNAL SUBFREEZING CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE
SKAGWAY AND HYDER VICINITIES WITHOUT A SYNOPTIC SOURCE OF COLD
AIR. STUCK WITH THE WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
GENERALLY WIND WILL NOT PRESENT MAJOR ISSUES AFTER MON PM THROUGH
LIKELY MOST OF THE WEEK...AND AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
NEITHER WILL SNOW.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-031.

&&

$$

AHN/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU















000
FXAK67 PAJK 011411
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
511 AM AKST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. A WEAK IMPULSE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
OVER THE PANHANDLE WITH LIGHT RAIN FROM SITKA EAST TO JUNEAU AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS/SEAS ARE REPORTED
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 OVER THE NORTHERNMOST
PANHANDLE TO THE MID 30S IN THE CENTRAL ZONES TO THE LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. A RAPID CLEARING OCCURS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST AND CLOUDS BEGIN DECREASING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ONE THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BECOMES AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE OUTER COAST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER NORTHWESTERN
CANADA. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM
GLOBAL FOR THEIR GOOD CONSENSUS FOR PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS. USED
THE SREF POPS AND QPF GUIDANCE TO HANDLE THE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
RAIN BAND OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. HEAVILY USED THE MOS
TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASING RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER CLOUD FREE SKIES.

EXPECT RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO DIMINISH BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASING INSOLATION WILL BRING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY INTO THE 40S. ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT WILL BRING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 20S EXCEPT
IN THE LOWER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST AREAS. SOME WIND PROTECTED
LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE MERCURY DROPPING DOWN TO THE MID TEENS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CANADA
AND THE INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE OUTER WATERS WILL TIGHTEN
NORTHEASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT LEVEL NORTHERLY
WINDS OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL THIS EVENING AND
EXPAND SOUTH TO STEPHENS PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...AFTER A MOSTLY CLEAR, COLD SUN NIGHT...EXPECT A DRY
DAY ON MONDAY WITH CONTINUED OUTFLOW WINDS IN FAVORED AREAS FROM
THE REMAINS OF THE CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH CURRENTLY. SCA-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY IN LYNN CANAL AND IN STEPHENS PASSAGE INTO THE
MORNING. THE RIDGE ALOFT IS SHARP AND SHORT-LIVED...AXIS PASSES
EAST OF THE PANHANDLE AFTER 09Z TUE. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE FAR WESTERN OCEAN
AREAS AS EARLY AS 15Z MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE BEGINNING OF
THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE SLOW APPROACH OF A SHARP
BUT POORLY ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH ON THE 00Z GFS/EC MODELS ANYWAY.
PRECIPITATION AND A WEAK FRONT ARRIVES IN THE YAKUTAT AREA BY 12Z
TUE. THE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM MEANS WEAK IMPACTS ON
WINDS AND ONLY CHANCES OF RAIN IN MOSTLY THE NORTHERN COASTAL
THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES ONSHORE BY 12Z WED.
AT THAT POINT MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED IN
YAKUTAT. THE NAM 06Z RUN IS SHOWING MORE A MORE ORGANIZED FRONT
AND SSW ONSHORE FLOW AT THIS POINT BUT THIS MODEL SOLUTION IS THE
OUTLIER AT THIS POINT WITH THE EC/GFS/GEM SHOWING WEAKER GRADIENTS AND
LESS ORGANIZED DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE CAUSE OF THIS EXAGGERATION APPEARS
TO BE A 532 DM 500MB CLOSED LOW ON THE NAM IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
GULF AT 12Z WED. THE EC/GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS SHOW OPEN TROUGHING AT THIS
POINT. WITH THIS IN MIND UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH PRIMARILY EC DATA
THROUGH WED. DEEP SWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AFTER THIS TROUGH PASSAGE.
AFTER THE PRIMARY PORTION OF THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
LATER ON WED/THU...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED CLOSED
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE EARLY THU....A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
DOMINATES THROUGH FRIDAY AM ON THE EC/GFS BUT WITH A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY FRI AM ON THE GEM. THE EC IS A
BIT SLOWER WITH THE TEMPORARY RIDGE AS THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN
TO GRADUALLY DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. A NEW STRONGER LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH ENTERS THE GULF FROM THE WEST FOLLOWING THE RIDGE EPISODE
ON FRI ON BOTH THE EC/GFS. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IS SHOWN ON THESE
TWO MODELS INTO NEXT WEEKEND OVERALL...AND THIS CHARACTERIZED THE
ENSEMBLE WPC GUIDANCE FROM YESTERDAY...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL DETAILS
ARE DIFFICULT TO EVALUATE PAST ABOUT THU. APPEARS LIKELY THAT
MOIST CONDITIONS WITH ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE AFTER THE
BRIEF RIDGE EPISODE LATE THU. THIS LED US TO SET UP LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS AREA-WIDE DURING THE FRI-SAT PERIOD ON THE NEW FORECAST
PACKAGE.

WITH GREATER THAN AVERAGE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
GFS/EC SOLUTIONS...PRIMARY UPDATES WERE TO WARM UP THE ZONE SITES AT NIGHT
FROM TUE ONWARD AS ONSHORE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW
NOCTURNAL SUBFREEZING CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE
SKAGWAY AND HYDER VICINITIES WITHOUT A SYNOPTIC SOURCE OF COLD
AIR. STUCK WITH THE WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
GENERALLY WIND WILL NOT PRESENT MAJOR ISSUES AFTER MON PM THROUGH
LIKELY MOST OF THE WEEK...AND AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
NEITHER WILL SNOW.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-031.

&&

$$

AHN/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU














000
FXAK67 PAJK 011411
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
511 AM AKST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. A WEAK IMPULSE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
OVER THE PANHANDLE WITH LIGHT RAIN FROM SITKA EAST TO JUNEAU AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS/SEAS ARE REPORTED
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 OVER THE NORTHERNMOST
PANHANDLE TO THE MID 30S IN THE CENTRAL ZONES TO THE LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. A RAPID CLEARING OCCURS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST AND CLOUDS BEGIN DECREASING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ONE THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BECOMES AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE OUTER COAST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER NORTHWESTERN
CANADA. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM
GLOBAL FOR THEIR GOOD CONSENSUS FOR PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS. USED
THE SREF POPS AND QPF GUIDANCE TO HANDLE THE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
RAIN BAND OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. HEAVILY USED THE MOS
TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASING RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER CLOUD FREE SKIES.

EXPECT RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO DIMINISH BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASING INSOLATION WILL BRING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY INTO THE 40S. ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT WILL BRING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 20S EXCEPT
IN THE LOWER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST AREAS. SOME WIND PROTECTED
LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE MERCURY DROPPING DOWN TO THE MID TEENS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CANADA
AND THE INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE OUTER WATERS WILL TIGHTEN
NORTHEASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT LEVEL NORTHERLY
WINDS OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL THIS EVENING AND
EXPAND SOUTH TO STEPHENS PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...AFTER A MOSTLY CLEAR, COLD SUN NIGHT...EXPECT A DRY
DAY ON MONDAY WITH CONTINUED OUTFLOW WINDS IN FAVORED AREAS FROM
THE REMAINS OF THE CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH CURRENTLY. SCA-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY IN LYNN CANAL AND IN STEPHENS PASSAGE INTO THE
MORNING. THE RIDGE ALOFT IS SHARP AND SHORT-LIVED...AXIS PASSES
EAST OF THE PANHANDLE AFTER 09Z TUE. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE FAR WESTERN OCEAN
AREAS AS EARLY AS 15Z MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE BEGINNING OF
THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE SLOW APPROACH OF A SHARP
BUT POORLY ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH ON THE 00Z GFS/EC MODELS ANYWAY.
PRECIPITATION AND A WEAK FRONT ARRIVES IN THE YAKUTAT AREA BY 12Z
TUE. THE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM MEANS WEAK IMPACTS ON
WINDS AND ONLY CHANCES OF RAIN IN MOSTLY THE NORTHERN COASTAL
THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES ONSHORE BY 12Z WED.
AT THAT POINT MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED IN
YAKUTAT. THE NAM 06Z RUN IS SHOWING MORE A MORE ORGANIZED FRONT
AND SSW ONSHORE FLOW AT THIS POINT BUT THIS MODEL SOLUTION IS THE
OUTLIER AT THIS POINT WITH THE EC/GFS/GEM SHOWING WEAKER GRADIENTS AND
LESS ORGANIZED DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE CAUSE OF THIS EXAGGERATION APPEARS
TO BE A 532 DM 500MB CLOSED LOW ON THE NAM IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
GULF AT 12Z WED. THE EC/GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS SHOW OPEN TROUGHING AT THIS
POINT. WITH THIS IN MIND UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH PRIMARILY EC DATA
THROUGH WED. DEEP SWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AFTER THIS TROUGH PASSAGE.
AFTER THE PRIMARY PORTION OF THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
LATER ON WED/THU...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED CLOSED
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE EARLY THU....A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
DOMINATES THROUGH FRIDAY AM ON THE EC/GFS BUT WITH A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY FRI AM ON THE GEM. THE EC IS A
BIT SLOWER WITH THE TEMPORARY RIDGE AS THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN
TO GRADUALLY DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. A NEW STRONGER LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH ENTERS THE GULF FROM THE WEST FOLLOWING THE RIDGE EPISODE
ON FRI ON BOTH THE EC/GFS. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IS SHOWN ON THESE
TWO MODELS INTO NEXT WEEKEND OVERALL...AND THIS CHARACTERIZED THE
ENSEMBLE WPC GUIDANCE FROM YESTERDAY...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL DETAILS
ARE DIFFICULT TO EVALUATE PAST ABOUT THU. APPEARS LIKELY THAT
MOIST CONDITIONS WITH ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE AFTER THE
BRIEF RIDGE EPISODE LATE THU. THIS LED US TO SET UP LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS AREA-WIDE DURING THE FRI-SAT PERIOD ON THE NEW FORECAST
PACKAGE.

WITH GREATER THAN AVERAGE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
GFS/EC SOLUTIONS...PRIMARY UPDATES WERE TO WARM UP THE ZONE SITES AT NIGHT
FROM TUE ONWARD AS ONSHORE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW
NOCTURNAL SUBFREEZING CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE
SKAGWAY AND HYDER VICINITIES WITHOUT A SYNOPTIC SOURCE OF COLD
AIR. STUCK WITH THE WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
GENERALLY WIND WILL NOT PRESENT MAJOR ISSUES AFTER MON PM THROUGH
LIKELY MOST OF THE WEEK...AND AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
NEITHER WILL SNOW.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-031.

&&

$$

AHN/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU














000
FXAK67 PAJK 011411
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
511 AM AKST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. A WEAK IMPULSE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
OVER THE PANHANDLE WITH LIGHT RAIN FROM SITKA EAST TO JUNEAU AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS/SEAS ARE REPORTED
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 OVER THE NORTHERNMOST
PANHANDLE TO THE MID 30S IN THE CENTRAL ZONES TO THE LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. A RAPID CLEARING OCCURS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST AND CLOUDS BEGIN DECREASING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ONE THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BECOMES AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE OUTER COAST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER NORTHWESTERN
CANADA. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM
GLOBAL FOR THEIR GOOD CONSENSUS FOR PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS. USED
THE SREF POPS AND QPF GUIDANCE TO HANDLE THE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
RAIN BAND OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. HEAVILY USED THE MOS
TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASING RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER CLOUD FREE SKIES.

EXPECT RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO DIMINISH BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASING INSOLATION WILL BRING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY INTO THE 40S. ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT WILL BRING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 20S EXCEPT
IN THE LOWER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST AREAS. SOME WIND PROTECTED
LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE MERCURY DROPPING DOWN TO THE MID TEENS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CANADA
AND THE INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE OUTER WATERS WILL TIGHTEN
NORTHEASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT LEVEL NORTHERLY
WINDS OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL THIS EVENING AND
EXPAND SOUTH TO STEPHENS PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...AFTER A MOSTLY CLEAR, COLD SUN NIGHT...EXPECT A DRY
DAY ON MONDAY WITH CONTINUED OUTFLOW WINDS IN FAVORED AREAS FROM
THE REMAINS OF THE CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH CURRENTLY. SCA-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY IN LYNN CANAL AND IN STEPHENS PASSAGE INTO THE
MORNING. THE RIDGE ALOFT IS SHARP AND SHORT-LIVED...AXIS PASSES
EAST OF THE PANHANDLE AFTER 09Z TUE. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE FAR WESTERN OCEAN
AREAS AS EARLY AS 15Z MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE BEGINNING OF
THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE SLOW APPROACH OF A SHARP
BUT POORLY ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH ON THE 00Z GFS/EC MODELS ANYWAY.
PRECIPITATION AND A WEAK FRONT ARRIVES IN THE YAKUTAT AREA BY 12Z
TUE. THE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM MEANS WEAK IMPACTS ON
WINDS AND ONLY CHANCES OF RAIN IN MOSTLY THE NORTHERN COASTAL
THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES ONSHORE BY 12Z WED.
AT THAT POINT MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED IN
YAKUTAT. THE NAM 06Z RUN IS SHOWING MORE A MORE ORGANIZED FRONT
AND SSW ONSHORE FLOW AT THIS POINT BUT THIS MODEL SOLUTION IS THE
OUTLIER AT THIS POINT WITH THE EC/GFS/GEM SHOWING WEAKER GRADIENTS AND
LESS ORGANIZED DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE CAUSE OF THIS EXAGGERATION APPEARS
TO BE A 532 DM 500MB CLOSED LOW ON THE NAM IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
GULF AT 12Z WED. THE EC/GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS SHOW OPEN TROUGHING AT THIS
POINT. WITH THIS IN MIND UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH PRIMARILY EC DATA
THROUGH WED. DEEP SWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AFTER THIS TROUGH PASSAGE.
AFTER THE PRIMARY PORTION OF THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
LATER ON WED/THU...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED CLOSED
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE EARLY THU....A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
DOMINATES THROUGH FRIDAY AM ON THE EC/GFS BUT WITH A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY FRI AM ON THE GEM. THE EC IS A
BIT SLOWER WITH THE TEMPORARY RIDGE AS THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN
TO GRADUALLY DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. A NEW STRONGER LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH ENTERS THE GULF FROM THE WEST FOLLOWING THE RIDGE EPISODE
ON FRI ON BOTH THE EC/GFS. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IS SHOWN ON THESE
TWO MODELS INTO NEXT WEEKEND OVERALL...AND THIS CHARACTERIZED THE
ENSEMBLE WPC GUIDANCE FROM YESTERDAY...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL DETAILS
ARE DIFFICULT TO EVALUATE PAST ABOUT THU. APPEARS LIKELY THAT
MOIST CONDITIONS WITH ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE AFTER THE
BRIEF RIDGE EPISODE LATE THU. THIS LED US TO SET UP LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS AREA-WIDE DURING THE FRI-SAT PERIOD ON THE NEW FORECAST
PACKAGE.

WITH GREATER THAN AVERAGE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
GFS/EC SOLUTIONS...PRIMARY UPDATES WERE TO WARM UP THE ZONE SITES AT NIGHT
FROM TUE ONWARD AS ONSHORE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW
NOCTURNAL SUBFREEZING CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE
SKAGWAY AND HYDER VICINITIES WITHOUT A SYNOPTIC SOURCE OF COLD
AIR. STUCK WITH THE WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
GENERALLY WIND WILL NOT PRESENT MAJOR ISSUES AFTER MON PM THROUGH
LIKELY MOST OF THE WEEK...AND AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
NEITHER WILL SNOW.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-031.

&&

$$

AHN/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU















000
FXAK67 PAJK 010013
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
313 PM AKST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN GULF AND SE AK WILL BE
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUN MORNING...THEN THE RIDGE WILL SHARPEN OVER THE AREA SUN
AFTERNOON. A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING E OF KODIAK WILL MOVE E
ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT...THEN SE TO HAIDA GWAII BY LATE SUN
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE YUKON LATE TONIGHT
AND SUN. MODELS WERE GENERALLY CLOSE ON THE MAIN FEATURES...ALTHOUGH
THE ECMWF WAS A BIT FASTER MOVING THE SYSTEM THRU THE AREA SUN THAN
THE OTHER MODELS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIP COMING IN TONIGHT
THEN EXITING THE AREA SUN...PTYPE...AND WINDS. PRETTY MUCH
FOLLOWED THE GFS/NAM/GEM CONSENSUS ON TIMING OF THE PRECIP MOVING
IN TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REACH THE PAEL/PASI AREAS AROUND
06Z TONIGHT...THEN THE PAOH/PAGN/PAGS AREAS AROUND 09Z. IT WILL
LIKELY GET INTO THE PAJN/PAPG/PAKW AREAS BY 12Z TONIGHT...THEN
REACH THE FAR SERN AREAS BY 15Z SUN. CURRENTLY THINK THE FAR NRN
AREAS (PAYA/PAHN/PAGY) WILL BE A CLOSE CALL ON WHETHER PRECIP GETS
TO THEM. KEEPING MAX POPS IN THOSE AREAS AT CHANCE LEVELS FOR NOW.
THINK PRECIP WILL LAST AROUND 4-6 HRS OVER THE NRN SIDE OF THE
PRECIP SHIELD...AND 6-8 HRS OVER THE SRN SIDE. THIS ENDS PRECIP
OVER THE NRN END AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK SUN...THEN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SRN AREAS. LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
FAIRLY RAPIDLY ONCE THE PRECIP ENDS ALSO...SO THE NRN AREAS WILL
GET BACK INTO SUNSHINE BY MID-LATE MORNING...WITH THE FAR SRN
AREAS BREAKING INTO SUNSHINE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THE PTYPE...ABOUT THE ONLY AREAS WITH A THREAT FOR SNOW ARE
OVER THE FAR NRN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. A TRICKY ASPECT OF
THE FORECAST THOUGH IS WHETHER IT ENDS UP AS A MIX OR BECOME ALL
SNOW. THE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AROUND PAGS AND PAJN AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL MAKE FOR A BETTER CHANCE THAT SNOW
MELT COOLING WOULD OCCUR AND ALLOW MAINLY SNOW TO REACH SEA LEVEL.
THIS WILL DEPEND ON PRECIP RATES...AND MODELS DIFFER SOME ON THIS
OVER THE PAJN/PAGS AREAS. ATTM...WILL LIMIT ANY SNOW ACCUMS TO 1
INCH OR LESS. WHERE AIRMASS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR ENTIRE EVENT
OVER THE FAR N...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LOWER...SO NO SNOW AMOUNT
MENTION WILL BE NEEDED.

AS FAR AS WINDS GO...WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW COMING IN THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SLY GRADIENT OVER THE FAR N...SO EXPECT LYNN
CANAL S WINDS TO PICK UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO 15-20 KT. THESE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THEN BECOME NLY BY DAYBREAK SUN AS HIGH STARTS TO BUILD TO
THE N AND SFC LOW TURNS SE. FURTHER S...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15
KT OR LESS THRU SUN MORNING...EXCEPT AROUND 20 KT OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. THEN AS LOW MOVES OFF TO THE SE AND HIGH
BUILDS TO THE N ...NLY-ELY WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO 15-20 KT DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE REMAINING INNER
CHANNELS...WHILE THE NLY WINDS OVER THE NRN LYNN CANAL AREA SHOULD
PICK UP TO SCA LEVELS BY LATE MORNING.

.LONG TERM...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND PANHANDLE
WILL KEEP THE PANHANDLE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
RANGE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THAT IS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS
TRAVELING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO GET RID OF THE RIDGE, BUT THE NEXT ONE WILL
BE. ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE RIDGE WED INTO THU AND WILL BE PUSHING THE RIDGE OFF TO THE
EAST. FOLLOWING THIS A THIRD TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GULF AGAIN FOR
LATE WEEK AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC BY SAT LEAVING MORE EAST/WEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
PANHANDLE OVER THE WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE, MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS A 1040 MB
HIGH IN THE INTERIOR OF CANADA KEEPS SURFACE FLOW OFFSHORE.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR HIGH SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR LYNN CANAL AND GUSTY WINDS FOR MANY
OF THE OTHER OUTFLOW REGIONS ALONG THE PANHANDLE. DON`T EXPECT
REALLY HIGH WINDS OR REALLY COLD TEMPS HOWEVER AS MOST OF THE
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL BE KEPT BOTTLED IN
CANADA BY JUST ENOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO KEEP IT ON COURSE
FOR THE GREAT PLANES. THE PANHANDLE WILL JUST SEE THE FRINGES OF
THE COLD AIR WHICH WILL COOL TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND DRY THINGS
OUT A BIT MORE.

FOR TUE, THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WILL NOT PRODUCE
MUCH MORE THAN CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE AS IT WILL
BE MOSTLY OVERWHELMED WITH ITS TASK OF MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE.
HOWEVER THE FURTHER WEST YOU ARE THE MORE LIKELY YOU WILL SEE ANY
PRECIP OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. YAKUTAT WILL LIKELY SEE CATEGORICAL
PRECIP ON TUE WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE REST OF THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. YAKUTAT MAY ALSO BE COLD ENOUGH ON TUE MORNING TO SEE
SOME SNOW BUT IT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN BY
AFTERNOON.

INTO WED, A SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
AND PANHANDLE BEHIND THE FIRST TROUGH. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WILL START TO SWITCH TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. BY WED
AFTERNOON THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BUT HOW ITS
SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE REPRESENTED IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. GFS IS EASILY THE STRONGEST WITH THE
SURFACE REFLECTION, TRACKING A 1005 MB LOW ACROSS THE GULF. THE
GEM IS A BIT WEAKER AND SLOWER, AND THE ECMWF IS WEAKER STILL. WPC
DATA WENT IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE WHICH HAD THE
STRENGTH OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS BUT WAS MORE LIKE THE GEM AS FAR
AS TIMING. DECIDED ON STAYING CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE WPC FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FARTHER OUT MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN AS THE MODELS STRUGGLE TO
RESOLVE WHAT THE NEW PATTERN WILL BE AFTER THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN MID WEEK. GENERAL TREND OUT HERE IS FOR A WETTER SCENARIO AS
UPPER FLOW MAINTAINS A MORE W OR SW DIRECTION INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH AT LEAST TWO OR THREE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEKEND. MAIN STORM TRACK OUT OF THE BERING SEA AND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF ALSO APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY AGREED UPON BY MOST
MODELS. IT IS JUST TIMING, STRUCTURE AND STRENGTH OF THE
INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS THAT IS IN DISPUTE. DECIDED ON MAINLY RELYING ON
WPC DATA FOR ITS USE OF ENSEMBLE MEANS IN TRYING TO EVEN OUT THE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

&&

$$

RWT/EAL

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU












000
FXAK67 PAJK 010013
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
313 PM AKST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN GULF AND SE AK WILL BE
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUN MORNING...THEN THE RIDGE WILL SHARPEN OVER THE AREA SUN
AFTERNOON. A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING E OF KODIAK WILL MOVE E
ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT...THEN SE TO HAIDA GWAII BY LATE SUN
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE YUKON LATE TONIGHT
AND SUN. MODELS WERE GENERALLY CLOSE ON THE MAIN FEATURES...ALTHOUGH
THE ECMWF WAS A BIT FASTER MOVING THE SYSTEM THRU THE AREA SUN THAN
THE OTHER MODELS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIP COMING IN TONIGHT
THEN EXITING THE AREA SUN...PTYPE...AND WINDS. PRETTY MUCH
FOLLOWED THE GFS/NAM/GEM CONSENSUS ON TIMING OF THE PRECIP MOVING
IN TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REACH THE PAEL/PASI AREAS AROUND
06Z TONIGHT...THEN THE PAOH/PAGN/PAGS AREAS AROUND 09Z. IT WILL
LIKELY GET INTO THE PAJN/PAPG/PAKW AREAS BY 12Z TONIGHT...THEN
REACH THE FAR SERN AREAS BY 15Z SUN. CURRENTLY THINK THE FAR NRN
AREAS (PAYA/PAHN/PAGY) WILL BE A CLOSE CALL ON WHETHER PRECIP GETS
TO THEM. KEEPING MAX POPS IN THOSE AREAS AT CHANCE LEVELS FOR NOW.
THINK PRECIP WILL LAST AROUND 4-6 HRS OVER THE NRN SIDE OF THE
PRECIP SHIELD...AND 6-8 HRS OVER THE SRN SIDE. THIS ENDS PRECIP
OVER THE NRN END AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK SUN...THEN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SRN AREAS. LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
FAIRLY RAPIDLY ONCE THE PRECIP ENDS ALSO...SO THE NRN AREAS WILL
GET BACK INTO SUNSHINE BY MID-LATE MORNING...WITH THE FAR SRN
AREAS BREAKING INTO SUNSHINE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THE PTYPE...ABOUT THE ONLY AREAS WITH A THREAT FOR SNOW ARE
OVER THE FAR NRN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. A TRICKY ASPECT OF
THE FORECAST THOUGH IS WHETHER IT ENDS UP AS A MIX OR BECOME ALL
SNOW. THE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AROUND PAGS AND PAJN AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL MAKE FOR A BETTER CHANCE THAT SNOW
MELT COOLING WOULD OCCUR AND ALLOW MAINLY SNOW TO REACH SEA LEVEL.
THIS WILL DEPEND ON PRECIP RATES...AND MODELS DIFFER SOME ON THIS
OVER THE PAJN/PAGS AREAS. ATTM...WILL LIMIT ANY SNOW ACCUMS TO 1
INCH OR LESS. WHERE AIRMASS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR ENTIRE EVENT
OVER THE FAR N...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LOWER...SO NO SNOW AMOUNT
MENTION WILL BE NEEDED.

AS FAR AS WINDS GO...WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW COMING IN THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SLY GRADIENT OVER THE FAR N...SO EXPECT LYNN
CANAL S WINDS TO PICK UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO 15-20 KT. THESE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THEN BECOME NLY BY DAYBREAK SUN AS HIGH STARTS TO BUILD TO
THE N AND SFC LOW TURNS SE. FURTHER S...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15
KT OR LESS THRU SUN MORNING...EXCEPT AROUND 20 KT OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. THEN AS LOW MOVES OFF TO THE SE AND HIGH
BUILDS TO THE N ...NLY-ELY WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO 15-20 KT DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE REMAINING INNER
CHANNELS...WHILE THE NLY WINDS OVER THE NRN LYNN CANAL AREA SHOULD
PICK UP TO SCA LEVELS BY LATE MORNING.

.LONG TERM...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND PANHANDLE
WILL KEEP THE PANHANDLE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
RANGE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THAT IS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS
TRAVELING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO GET RID OF THE RIDGE, BUT THE NEXT ONE WILL
BE. ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE RIDGE WED INTO THU AND WILL BE PUSHING THE RIDGE OFF TO THE
EAST. FOLLOWING THIS A THIRD TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GULF AGAIN FOR
LATE WEEK AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC BY SAT LEAVING MORE EAST/WEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
PANHANDLE OVER THE WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE, MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS A 1040 MB
HIGH IN THE INTERIOR OF CANADA KEEPS SURFACE FLOW OFFSHORE.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR HIGH SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR LYNN CANAL AND GUSTY WINDS FOR MANY
OF THE OTHER OUTFLOW REGIONS ALONG THE PANHANDLE. DON`T EXPECT
REALLY HIGH WINDS OR REALLY COLD TEMPS HOWEVER AS MOST OF THE
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL BE KEPT BOTTLED IN
CANADA BY JUST ENOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO KEEP IT ON COURSE
FOR THE GREAT PLANES. THE PANHANDLE WILL JUST SEE THE FRINGES OF
THE COLD AIR WHICH WILL COOL TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND DRY THINGS
OUT A BIT MORE.

FOR TUE, THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WILL NOT PRODUCE
MUCH MORE THAN CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE AS IT WILL
BE MOSTLY OVERWHELMED WITH ITS TASK OF MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE.
HOWEVER THE FURTHER WEST YOU ARE THE MORE LIKELY YOU WILL SEE ANY
PRECIP OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. YAKUTAT WILL LIKELY SEE CATEGORICAL
PRECIP ON TUE WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE REST OF THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. YAKUTAT MAY ALSO BE COLD ENOUGH ON TUE MORNING TO SEE
SOME SNOW BUT IT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN BY
AFTERNOON.

INTO WED, A SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
AND PANHANDLE BEHIND THE FIRST TROUGH. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WILL START TO SWITCH TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. BY WED
AFTERNOON THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BUT HOW ITS
SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE REPRESENTED IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. GFS IS EASILY THE STRONGEST WITH THE
SURFACE REFLECTION, TRACKING A 1005 MB LOW ACROSS THE GULF. THE
GEM IS A BIT WEAKER AND SLOWER, AND THE ECMWF IS WEAKER STILL. WPC
DATA WENT IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE WHICH HAD THE
STRENGTH OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS BUT WAS MORE LIKE THE GEM AS FAR
AS TIMING. DECIDED ON STAYING CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE WPC FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FARTHER OUT MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN AS THE MODELS STRUGGLE TO
RESOLVE WHAT THE NEW PATTERN WILL BE AFTER THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN MID WEEK. GENERAL TREND OUT HERE IS FOR A WETTER SCENARIO AS
UPPER FLOW MAINTAINS A MORE W OR SW DIRECTION INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH AT LEAST TWO OR THREE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEKEND. MAIN STORM TRACK OUT OF THE BERING SEA AND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF ALSO APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY AGREED UPON BY MOST
MODELS. IT IS JUST TIMING, STRUCTURE AND STRENGTH OF THE
INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS THAT IS IN DISPUTE. DECIDED ON MAINLY RELYING ON
WPC DATA FOR ITS USE OF ENSEMBLE MEANS IN TRYING TO EVEN OUT THE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

&&

$$

RWT/EAL

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU











000
FXAK67 PAJK 010013
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
313 PM AKST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN GULF AND SE AK WILL BE
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUN MORNING...THEN THE RIDGE WILL SHARPEN OVER THE AREA SUN
AFTERNOON. A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING E OF KODIAK WILL MOVE E
ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT...THEN SE TO HAIDA GWAII BY LATE SUN
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE YUKON LATE TONIGHT
AND SUN. MODELS WERE GENERALLY CLOSE ON THE MAIN FEATURES...ALTHOUGH
THE ECMWF WAS A BIT FASTER MOVING THE SYSTEM THRU THE AREA SUN THAN
THE OTHER MODELS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIP COMING IN TONIGHT
THEN EXITING THE AREA SUN...PTYPE...AND WINDS. PRETTY MUCH
FOLLOWED THE GFS/NAM/GEM CONSENSUS ON TIMING OF THE PRECIP MOVING
IN TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REACH THE PAEL/PASI AREAS AROUND
06Z TONIGHT...THEN THE PAOH/PAGN/PAGS AREAS AROUND 09Z. IT WILL
LIKELY GET INTO THE PAJN/PAPG/PAKW AREAS BY 12Z TONIGHT...THEN
REACH THE FAR SERN AREAS BY 15Z SUN. CURRENTLY THINK THE FAR NRN
AREAS (PAYA/PAHN/PAGY) WILL BE A CLOSE CALL ON WHETHER PRECIP GETS
TO THEM. KEEPING MAX POPS IN THOSE AREAS AT CHANCE LEVELS FOR NOW.
THINK PRECIP WILL LAST AROUND 4-6 HRS OVER THE NRN SIDE OF THE
PRECIP SHIELD...AND 6-8 HRS OVER THE SRN SIDE. THIS ENDS PRECIP
OVER THE NRN END AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK SUN...THEN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SRN AREAS. LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
FAIRLY RAPIDLY ONCE THE PRECIP ENDS ALSO...SO THE NRN AREAS WILL
GET BACK INTO SUNSHINE BY MID-LATE MORNING...WITH THE FAR SRN
AREAS BREAKING INTO SUNSHINE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THE PTYPE...ABOUT THE ONLY AREAS WITH A THREAT FOR SNOW ARE
OVER THE FAR NRN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. A TRICKY ASPECT OF
THE FORECAST THOUGH IS WHETHER IT ENDS UP AS A MIX OR BECOME ALL
SNOW. THE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AROUND PAGS AND PAJN AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL MAKE FOR A BETTER CHANCE THAT SNOW
MELT COOLING WOULD OCCUR AND ALLOW MAINLY SNOW TO REACH SEA LEVEL.
THIS WILL DEPEND ON PRECIP RATES...AND MODELS DIFFER SOME ON THIS
OVER THE PAJN/PAGS AREAS. ATTM...WILL LIMIT ANY SNOW ACCUMS TO 1
INCH OR LESS. WHERE AIRMASS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR ENTIRE EVENT
OVER THE FAR N...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LOWER...SO NO SNOW AMOUNT
MENTION WILL BE NEEDED.

AS FAR AS WINDS GO...WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW COMING IN THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SLY GRADIENT OVER THE FAR N...SO EXPECT LYNN
CANAL S WINDS TO PICK UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO 15-20 KT. THESE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THEN BECOME NLY BY DAYBREAK SUN AS HIGH STARTS TO BUILD TO
THE N AND SFC LOW TURNS SE. FURTHER S...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15
KT OR LESS THRU SUN MORNING...EXCEPT AROUND 20 KT OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. THEN AS LOW MOVES OFF TO THE SE AND HIGH
BUILDS TO THE N ...NLY-ELY WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO 15-20 KT DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE REMAINING INNER
CHANNELS...WHILE THE NLY WINDS OVER THE NRN LYNN CANAL AREA SHOULD
PICK UP TO SCA LEVELS BY LATE MORNING.

.LONG TERM...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND PANHANDLE
WILL KEEP THE PANHANDLE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
RANGE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THAT IS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS
TRAVELING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO GET RID OF THE RIDGE, BUT THE NEXT ONE WILL
BE. ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE RIDGE WED INTO THU AND WILL BE PUSHING THE RIDGE OFF TO THE
EAST. FOLLOWING THIS A THIRD TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GULF AGAIN FOR
LATE WEEK AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC BY SAT LEAVING MORE EAST/WEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
PANHANDLE OVER THE WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE, MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS A 1040 MB
HIGH IN THE INTERIOR OF CANADA KEEPS SURFACE FLOW OFFSHORE.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR HIGH SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR LYNN CANAL AND GUSTY WINDS FOR MANY
OF THE OTHER OUTFLOW REGIONS ALONG THE PANHANDLE. DON`T EXPECT
REALLY HIGH WINDS OR REALLY COLD TEMPS HOWEVER AS MOST OF THE
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL BE KEPT BOTTLED IN
CANADA BY JUST ENOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO KEEP IT ON COURSE
FOR THE GREAT PLANES. THE PANHANDLE WILL JUST SEE THE FRINGES OF
THE COLD AIR WHICH WILL COOL TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND DRY THINGS
OUT A BIT MORE.

FOR TUE, THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WILL NOT PRODUCE
MUCH MORE THAN CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE AS IT WILL
BE MOSTLY OVERWHELMED WITH ITS TASK OF MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE.
HOWEVER THE FURTHER WEST YOU ARE THE MORE LIKELY YOU WILL SEE ANY
PRECIP OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. YAKUTAT WILL LIKELY SEE CATEGORICAL
PRECIP ON TUE WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE REST OF THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. YAKUTAT MAY ALSO BE COLD ENOUGH ON TUE MORNING TO SEE
SOME SNOW BUT IT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN BY
AFTERNOON.

INTO WED, A SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
AND PANHANDLE BEHIND THE FIRST TROUGH. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WILL START TO SWITCH TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. BY WED
AFTERNOON THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BUT HOW ITS
SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE REPRESENTED IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. GFS IS EASILY THE STRONGEST WITH THE
SURFACE REFLECTION, TRACKING A 1005 MB LOW ACROSS THE GULF. THE
GEM IS A BIT WEAKER AND SLOWER, AND THE ECMWF IS WEAKER STILL. WPC
DATA WENT IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE WHICH HAD THE
STRENGTH OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS BUT WAS MORE LIKE THE GEM AS FAR
AS TIMING. DECIDED ON STAYING CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE WPC FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FARTHER OUT MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN AS THE MODELS STRUGGLE TO
RESOLVE WHAT THE NEW PATTERN WILL BE AFTER THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN MID WEEK. GENERAL TREND OUT HERE IS FOR A WETTER SCENARIO AS
UPPER FLOW MAINTAINS A MORE W OR SW DIRECTION INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH AT LEAST TWO OR THREE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEKEND. MAIN STORM TRACK OUT OF THE BERING SEA AND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF ALSO APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY AGREED UPON BY MOST
MODELS. IT IS JUST TIMING, STRUCTURE AND STRENGTH OF THE
INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS THAT IS IN DISPUTE. DECIDED ON MAINLY RELYING ON
WPC DATA FOR ITS USE OF ENSEMBLE MEANS IN TRYING TO EVEN OUT THE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

&&

$$

RWT/EAL

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU











000
FXAK67 PAJK 010013
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
313 PM AKST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN GULF AND SE AK WILL BE
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUN MORNING...THEN THE RIDGE WILL SHARPEN OVER THE AREA SUN
AFTERNOON. A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING E OF KODIAK WILL MOVE E
ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT...THEN SE TO HAIDA GWAII BY LATE SUN
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE YUKON LATE TONIGHT
AND SUN. MODELS WERE GENERALLY CLOSE ON THE MAIN FEATURES...ALTHOUGH
THE ECMWF WAS A BIT FASTER MOVING THE SYSTEM THRU THE AREA SUN THAN
THE OTHER MODELS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIP COMING IN TONIGHT
THEN EXITING THE AREA SUN...PTYPE...AND WINDS. PRETTY MUCH
FOLLOWED THE GFS/NAM/GEM CONSENSUS ON TIMING OF THE PRECIP MOVING
IN TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REACH THE PAEL/PASI AREAS AROUND
06Z TONIGHT...THEN THE PAOH/PAGN/PAGS AREAS AROUND 09Z. IT WILL
LIKELY GET INTO THE PAJN/PAPG/PAKW AREAS BY 12Z TONIGHT...THEN
REACH THE FAR SERN AREAS BY 15Z SUN. CURRENTLY THINK THE FAR NRN
AREAS (PAYA/PAHN/PAGY) WILL BE A CLOSE CALL ON WHETHER PRECIP GETS
TO THEM. KEEPING MAX POPS IN THOSE AREAS AT CHANCE LEVELS FOR NOW.
THINK PRECIP WILL LAST AROUND 4-6 HRS OVER THE NRN SIDE OF THE
PRECIP SHIELD...AND 6-8 HRS OVER THE SRN SIDE. THIS ENDS PRECIP
OVER THE NRN END AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK SUN...THEN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SRN AREAS. LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
FAIRLY RAPIDLY ONCE THE PRECIP ENDS ALSO...SO THE NRN AREAS WILL
GET BACK INTO SUNSHINE BY MID-LATE MORNING...WITH THE FAR SRN
AREAS BREAKING INTO SUNSHINE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THE PTYPE...ABOUT THE ONLY AREAS WITH A THREAT FOR SNOW ARE
OVER THE FAR NRN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. A TRICKY ASPECT OF
THE FORECAST THOUGH IS WHETHER IT ENDS UP AS A MIX OR BECOME ALL
SNOW. THE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AROUND PAGS AND PAJN AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL MAKE FOR A BETTER CHANCE THAT SNOW
MELT COOLING WOULD OCCUR AND ALLOW MAINLY SNOW TO REACH SEA LEVEL.
THIS WILL DEPEND ON PRECIP RATES...AND MODELS DIFFER SOME ON THIS
OVER THE PAJN/PAGS AREAS. ATTM...WILL LIMIT ANY SNOW ACCUMS TO 1
INCH OR LESS. WHERE AIRMASS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR ENTIRE EVENT
OVER THE FAR N...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LOWER...SO NO SNOW AMOUNT
MENTION WILL BE NEEDED.

AS FAR AS WINDS GO...WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW COMING IN THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SLY GRADIENT OVER THE FAR N...SO EXPECT LYNN
CANAL S WINDS TO PICK UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO 15-20 KT. THESE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THEN BECOME NLY BY DAYBREAK SUN AS HIGH STARTS TO BUILD TO
THE N AND SFC LOW TURNS SE. FURTHER S...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15
KT OR LESS THRU SUN MORNING...EXCEPT AROUND 20 KT OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. THEN AS LOW MOVES OFF TO THE SE AND HIGH
BUILDS TO THE N ...NLY-ELY WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO 15-20 KT DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE REMAINING INNER
CHANNELS...WHILE THE NLY WINDS OVER THE NRN LYNN CANAL AREA SHOULD
PICK UP TO SCA LEVELS BY LATE MORNING.

.LONG TERM...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND PANHANDLE
WILL KEEP THE PANHANDLE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
RANGE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THAT IS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS
TRAVELING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO GET RID OF THE RIDGE, BUT THE NEXT ONE WILL
BE. ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE RIDGE WED INTO THU AND WILL BE PUSHING THE RIDGE OFF TO THE
EAST. FOLLOWING THIS A THIRD TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GULF AGAIN FOR
LATE WEEK AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC BY SAT LEAVING MORE EAST/WEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
PANHANDLE OVER THE WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE, MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS A 1040 MB
HIGH IN THE INTERIOR OF CANADA KEEPS SURFACE FLOW OFFSHORE.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR HIGH SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR LYNN CANAL AND GUSTY WINDS FOR MANY
OF THE OTHER OUTFLOW REGIONS ALONG THE PANHANDLE. DON`T EXPECT
REALLY HIGH WINDS OR REALLY COLD TEMPS HOWEVER AS MOST OF THE
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL BE KEPT BOTTLED IN
CANADA BY JUST ENOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO KEEP IT ON COURSE
FOR THE GREAT PLANES. THE PANHANDLE WILL JUST SEE THE FRINGES OF
THE COLD AIR WHICH WILL COOL TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND DRY THINGS
OUT A BIT MORE.

FOR TUE, THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WILL NOT PRODUCE
MUCH MORE THAN CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE AS IT WILL
BE MOSTLY OVERWHELMED WITH ITS TASK OF MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE.
HOWEVER THE FURTHER WEST YOU ARE THE MORE LIKELY YOU WILL SEE ANY
PRECIP OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. YAKUTAT WILL LIKELY SEE CATEGORICAL
PRECIP ON TUE WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE REST OF THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. YAKUTAT MAY ALSO BE COLD ENOUGH ON TUE MORNING TO SEE
SOME SNOW BUT IT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN BY
AFTERNOON.

INTO WED, A SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
AND PANHANDLE BEHIND THE FIRST TROUGH. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WILL START TO SWITCH TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. BY WED
AFTERNOON THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BUT HOW ITS
SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE REPRESENTED IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. GFS IS EASILY THE STRONGEST WITH THE
SURFACE REFLECTION, TRACKING A 1005 MB LOW ACROSS THE GULF. THE
GEM IS A BIT WEAKER AND SLOWER, AND THE ECMWF IS WEAKER STILL. WPC
DATA WENT IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE WHICH HAD THE
STRENGTH OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS BUT WAS MORE LIKE THE GEM AS FAR
AS TIMING. DECIDED ON STAYING CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE WPC FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FARTHER OUT MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN AS THE MODELS STRUGGLE TO
RESOLVE WHAT THE NEW PATTERN WILL BE AFTER THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN MID WEEK. GENERAL TREND OUT HERE IS FOR A WETTER SCENARIO AS
UPPER FLOW MAINTAINS A MORE W OR SW DIRECTION INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH AT LEAST TWO OR THREE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEKEND. MAIN STORM TRACK OUT OF THE BERING SEA AND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF ALSO APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY AGREED UPON BY MOST
MODELS. IT IS JUST TIMING, STRUCTURE AND STRENGTH OF THE
INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS THAT IS IN DISPUTE. DECIDED ON MAINLY RELYING ON
WPC DATA FOR ITS USE OF ENSEMBLE MEANS IN TRYING TO EVEN OUT THE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

&&

$$

RWT/EAL

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU












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