Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXAK67 PAJK 311420
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
620 AM AKDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE YUKON WILL
SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A STRONG NORTHERLY JET
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS LOW IS BRINGING IN COOL ARCTIC AIR TO THE
GULF (WHITEHORSE HAS HAD A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVERNIGHT) WHICH HAS
BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NE GULF WILL REDEVELOP AND SLOWLY MOVE SE WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BE OFF HAIDA GWAII BY TUESDAY MORNING.

SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS TODAY THEN DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AS FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE BEHIND THE LOW. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS THEN END
IN THAT AREA OVERNIGHT. THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ON WEST
FACING SLOPES DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
DETECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE MOST RECENT ONE BEING EAST OF
REVILLAGIGEDO CHANNEL. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MOST OF THE OUTSIDE WATERS AND THE
SOUTHERN ZONES.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SELY TO NE-NWLY ONCE THE LOW PASSES WITH
SEVERAL LOCATIONS SEEING SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SPEEDS. STRONGEST WEST
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOW OVER THE OFFSHORE/OUTSIDE WATERS
AND INTO THE OCEAN ENTRANCES NEAR CAPE DECISION THIS MORNING.
STRONGEST S-SELY WINDS WILL BE IN CLARENCE STRAIT ALL DAY. N-NELY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFTS EXPECTED OUT
OF CROSS SOUND, NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES
SUCH AS DISENCHANTMENT BAY.

USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEM FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE TODAY
WITH OTHER ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO WINDS WITH HIRES MODELS FOR LOCAL
EFFECTS SUCH AS OUTFLOW WINDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL
ON THE DIMINISHING TREND OF THE SHOWERS BUT LOWER ON THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...UPPER TROF WILL BE JUST E OF THE AREA FOR MIDWEEK. A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE S INTO THE AREA HOWEVER FOR TUE-
WED. WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD MOVE IN FOR THU-FRI TIME
FRAME...THEN ITS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT A SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. USED THE 00Z ECMWF IN A BLEND WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TUE-WED...THEN BLENDED IN WPC WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR REMAINING TIME FRAME...EXCEPT FOR POPS WHICH WERE
LEFT AS IS FROM WED NIGHT ONWARD.

AREA WILL BE UNDER NLY FLOW ALOFT FOR TUE-WED...WHICH GENERALLY IS
A DRIER FLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THRU THE
AREA MAY KEEP SOME SHOWERS AROUND OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE. THE
STRONGEST SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO THE SRN AREA WED. AREAS FURTHER
N WILL SEE DECENT AMOUNT OF CLEARING ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE. WHILE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THAT AREA...THINK ENOUGH BREAKS WILL OCCUR TO CALL IT PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. NUDGED MAX TEMPS UP A BIT TUE
WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...AND LOWERED SOME MIN TEMPS TUE NIGHT
DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE NRN HALF
OF THE INNER CHANNELS WITH SFC TROF OVER THE FAR SRN AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING INTO THE SRN YUKON. SCA LEVEL NLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR LYNN CANAL AND MAY GET INTO SOME OF THE CENTRAL INNER
CHANNELS AS WELL. LONG DURATION NLY WINDS IN LYNN CANAL WILL ALLOW
SEAS TO BUILD UP BEYOND THE STANDARD 5 TO 1 WIND TO SEA
RATIO FOR THE INSIDE AREAS TUE-WED.

LATER ON...WITH MODELS SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND...IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT RAIN
WILL OCCUR THEN. HOWEVER...WOULD LIKE TO SEE THEM GET CLOSER ON
TIMING OF SYSTEM BEFORE RAISING POPS UPWARD. LEFT IN THE CHANCE
POPS SAT-SUN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-033-035-036-041>043-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ051-052.

&&

$$

FERRIN/RWT

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU




000
FXAK67 PAJK 311420
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
620 AM AKDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE YUKON WILL
SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A STRONG NORTHERLY JET
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS LOW IS BRINGING IN COOL ARCTIC AIR TO THE
GULF (WHITEHORSE HAS HAD A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVERNIGHT) WHICH HAS
BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NE GULF WILL REDEVELOP AND SLOWLY MOVE SE WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BE OFF HAIDA GWAII BY TUESDAY MORNING.

SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS TODAY THEN DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AS FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE BEHIND THE LOW. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS THEN END
IN THAT AREA OVERNIGHT. THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ON WEST
FACING SLOPES DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
DETECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE MOST RECENT ONE BEING EAST OF
REVILLAGIGEDO CHANNEL. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MOST OF THE OUTSIDE WATERS AND THE
SOUTHERN ZONES.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SELY TO NE-NWLY ONCE THE LOW PASSES WITH
SEVERAL LOCATIONS SEEING SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SPEEDS. STRONGEST WEST
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOW OVER THE OFFSHORE/OUTSIDE WATERS
AND INTO THE OCEAN ENTRANCES NEAR CAPE DECISION THIS MORNING.
STRONGEST S-SELY WINDS WILL BE IN CLARENCE STRAIT ALL DAY. N-NELY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFTS EXPECTED OUT
OF CROSS SOUND, NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES
SUCH AS DISENCHANTMENT BAY.

USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEM FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE TODAY
WITH OTHER ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO WINDS WITH HIRES MODELS FOR LOCAL
EFFECTS SUCH AS OUTFLOW WINDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL
ON THE DIMINISHING TREND OF THE SHOWERS BUT LOWER ON THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...UPPER TROF WILL BE JUST E OF THE AREA FOR MIDWEEK. A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE S INTO THE AREA HOWEVER FOR TUE-
WED. WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD MOVE IN FOR THU-FRI TIME
FRAME...THEN ITS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT A SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. USED THE 00Z ECMWF IN A BLEND WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TUE-WED...THEN BLENDED IN WPC WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR REMAINING TIME FRAME...EXCEPT FOR POPS WHICH WERE
LEFT AS IS FROM WED NIGHT ONWARD.

AREA WILL BE UNDER NLY FLOW ALOFT FOR TUE-WED...WHICH GENERALLY IS
A DRIER FLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THRU THE
AREA MAY KEEP SOME SHOWERS AROUND OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE. THE
STRONGEST SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO THE SRN AREA WED. AREAS FURTHER
N WILL SEE DECENT AMOUNT OF CLEARING ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE. WHILE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THAT AREA...THINK ENOUGH BREAKS WILL OCCUR TO CALL IT PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. NUDGED MAX TEMPS UP A BIT TUE
WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...AND LOWERED SOME MIN TEMPS TUE NIGHT
DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE NRN HALF
OF THE INNER CHANNELS WITH SFC TROF OVER THE FAR SRN AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING INTO THE SRN YUKON. SCA LEVEL NLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR LYNN CANAL AND MAY GET INTO SOME OF THE CENTRAL INNER
CHANNELS AS WELL. LONG DURATION NLY WINDS IN LYNN CANAL WILL ALLOW
SEAS TO BUILD UP BEYOND THE STANDARD 5 TO 1 WIND TO SEA
RATIO FOR THE INSIDE AREAS TUE-WED.

LATER ON...WITH MODELS SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND...IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT RAIN
WILL OCCUR THEN. HOWEVER...WOULD LIKE TO SEE THEM GET CLOSER ON
TIMING OF SYSTEM BEFORE RAISING POPS UPWARD. LEFT IN THE CHANCE
POPS SAT-SUN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-033-035-036-041>043-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ051-052.

&&

$$

FERRIN/RWT

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU





000
FXAK67 PAJK 311420
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
620 AM AKDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE YUKON WILL
SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A STRONG NORTHERLY JET
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS LOW IS BRINGING IN COOL ARCTIC AIR TO THE
GULF (WHITEHORSE HAS HAD A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVERNIGHT) WHICH HAS
BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NE GULF WILL REDEVELOP AND SLOWLY MOVE SE WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BE OFF HAIDA GWAII BY TUESDAY MORNING.

SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS TODAY THEN DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AS FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE BEHIND THE LOW. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS THEN END
IN THAT AREA OVERNIGHT. THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ON WEST
FACING SLOPES DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
DETECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE MOST RECENT ONE BEING EAST OF
REVILLAGIGEDO CHANNEL. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MOST OF THE OUTSIDE WATERS AND THE
SOUTHERN ZONES.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SELY TO NE-NWLY ONCE THE LOW PASSES WITH
SEVERAL LOCATIONS SEEING SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SPEEDS. STRONGEST WEST
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOW OVER THE OFFSHORE/OUTSIDE WATERS
AND INTO THE OCEAN ENTRANCES NEAR CAPE DECISION THIS MORNING.
STRONGEST S-SELY WINDS WILL BE IN CLARENCE STRAIT ALL DAY. N-NELY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFTS EXPECTED OUT
OF CROSS SOUND, NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES
SUCH AS DISENCHANTMENT BAY.

USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEM FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE TODAY
WITH OTHER ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO WINDS WITH HIRES MODELS FOR LOCAL
EFFECTS SUCH AS OUTFLOW WINDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL
ON THE DIMINISHING TREND OF THE SHOWERS BUT LOWER ON THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...UPPER TROF WILL BE JUST E OF THE AREA FOR MIDWEEK. A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE S INTO THE AREA HOWEVER FOR TUE-
WED. WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD MOVE IN FOR THU-FRI TIME
FRAME...THEN ITS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT A SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. USED THE 00Z ECMWF IN A BLEND WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TUE-WED...THEN BLENDED IN WPC WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR REMAINING TIME FRAME...EXCEPT FOR POPS WHICH WERE
LEFT AS IS FROM WED NIGHT ONWARD.

AREA WILL BE UNDER NLY FLOW ALOFT FOR TUE-WED...WHICH GENERALLY IS
A DRIER FLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THRU THE
AREA MAY KEEP SOME SHOWERS AROUND OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE. THE
STRONGEST SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO THE SRN AREA WED. AREAS FURTHER
N WILL SEE DECENT AMOUNT OF CLEARING ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE. WHILE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THAT AREA...THINK ENOUGH BREAKS WILL OCCUR TO CALL IT PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. NUDGED MAX TEMPS UP A BIT TUE
WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...AND LOWERED SOME MIN TEMPS TUE NIGHT
DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE NRN HALF
OF THE INNER CHANNELS WITH SFC TROF OVER THE FAR SRN AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING INTO THE SRN YUKON. SCA LEVEL NLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR LYNN CANAL AND MAY GET INTO SOME OF THE CENTRAL INNER
CHANNELS AS WELL. LONG DURATION NLY WINDS IN LYNN CANAL WILL ALLOW
SEAS TO BUILD UP BEYOND THE STANDARD 5 TO 1 WIND TO SEA
RATIO FOR THE INSIDE AREAS TUE-WED.

LATER ON...WITH MODELS SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND...IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT RAIN
WILL OCCUR THEN. HOWEVER...WOULD LIKE TO SEE THEM GET CLOSER ON
TIMING OF SYSTEM BEFORE RAISING POPS UPWARD. LEFT IN THE CHANCE
POPS SAT-SUN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-033-035-036-041>043-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ051-052.

&&

$$

FERRIN/RWT

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU





000
FXAK67 PAJK 311420
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
620 AM AKDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE YUKON WILL
SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A STRONG NORTHERLY JET
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS LOW IS BRINGING IN COOL ARCTIC AIR TO THE
GULF (WHITEHORSE HAS HAD A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVERNIGHT) WHICH HAS
BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NE GULF WILL REDEVELOP AND SLOWLY MOVE SE WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BE OFF HAIDA GWAII BY TUESDAY MORNING.

SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS TODAY THEN DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AS FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE BEHIND THE LOW. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS THEN END
IN THAT AREA OVERNIGHT. THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ON WEST
FACING SLOPES DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
DETECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE MOST RECENT ONE BEING EAST OF
REVILLAGIGEDO CHANNEL. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MOST OF THE OUTSIDE WATERS AND THE
SOUTHERN ZONES.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SELY TO NE-NWLY ONCE THE LOW PASSES WITH
SEVERAL LOCATIONS SEEING SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SPEEDS. STRONGEST WEST
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOW OVER THE OFFSHORE/OUTSIDE WATERS
AND INTO THE OCEAN ENTRANCES NEAR CAPE DECISION THIS MORNING.
STRONGEST S-SELY WINDS WILL BE IN CLARENCE STRAIT ALL DAY. N-NELY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFTS EXPECTED OUT
OF CROSS SOUND, NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES
SUCH AS DISENCHANTMENT BAY.

USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEM FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE TODAY
WITH OTHER ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO WINDS WITH HIRES MODELS FOR LOCAL
EFFECTS SUCH AS OUTFLOW WINDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL
ON THE DIMINISHING TREND OF THE SHOWERS BUT LOWER ON THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...UPPER TROF WILL BE JUST E OF THE AREA FOR MIDWEEK. A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE S INTO THE AREA HOWEVER FOR TUE-
WED. WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD MOVE IN FOR THU-FRI TIME
FRAME...THEN ITS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT A SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. USED THE 00Z ECMWF IN A BLEND WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TUE-WED...THEN BLENDED IN WPC WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR REMAINING TIME FRAME...EXCEPT FOR POPS WHICH WERE
LEFT AS IS FROM WED NIGHT ONWARD.

AREA WILL BE UNDER NLY FLOW ALOFT FOR TUE-WED...WHICH GENERALLY IS
A DRIER FLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THRU THE
AREA MAY KEEP SOME SHOWERS AROUND OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE. THE
STRONGEST SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO THE SRN AREA WED. AREAS FURTHER
N WILL SEE DECENT AMOUNT OF CLEARING ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE. WHILE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THAT AREA...THINK ENOUGH BREAKS WILL OCCUR TO CALL IT PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. NUDGED MAX TEMPS UP A BIT TUE
WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...AND LOWERED SOME MIN TEMPS TUE NIGHT
DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE NRN HALF
OF THE INNER CHANNELS WITH SFC TROF OVER THE FAR SRN AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING INTO THE SRN YUKON. SCA LEVEL NLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR LYNN CANAL AND MAY GET INTO SOME OF THE CENTRAL INNER
CHANNELS AS WELL. LONG DURATION NLY WINDS IN LYNN CANAL WILL ALLOW
SEAS TO BUILD UP BEYOND THE STANDARD 5 TO 1 WIND TO SEA
RATIO FOR THE INSIDE AREAS TUE-WED.

LATER ON...WITH MODELS SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND...IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT RAIN
WILL OCCUR THEN. HOWEVER...WOULD LIKE TO SEE THEM GET CLOSER ON
TIMING OF SYSTEM BEFORE RAISING POPS UPWARD. LEFT IN THE CHANCE
POPS SAT-SUN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-033-035-036-041>043-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ051-052.

&&

$$

FERRIN/RWT

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU




000
FXAK67 PAJK 302246
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
246 PM AKDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...QUICK DEVELOPING LOW THIS MORNING HAS RACED
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND HAS STARTED TO FILL AS IT
MOVES ACROSS TO BRITISH COLUMBIA. A LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO
A LOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES.

THE BAND OF HEAVIER RAINS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA BY EARLY EVENING. OPEN CELL SHOWERS IN THE FLOW PATTERN
HEADED TO SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS MORE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF FROM ABOUT SITKA
TO YAKUTAT.

THERE IS A FAIR SIZED COLD POOL ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE GULF. THIS IS ADDING TO THE INSTABILITY AND IS ALLOWING FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF BETTER CONVECTION. EAST OF 140 ROUGHLY AND
PUSHING INTO PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND.

STILL SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WEST COAST OF PRINCE OF WALES
ISLAND AND ALONG THE INNER CHANNELS SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND BUT
THE WINDS ARE SUBSIDING AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND PUSHES INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS EVENING.

ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES TODAY AS SOLUTIONS SEEMED TO BE GOOD THROUGH
MONDAY. CONFIDENCE WAS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...UPPER DISTURBANCE LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON OVER WRN
PORTIONS OF INTERIOR AK IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SE ACROSS THE
CNTRL/ERN GULF MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE. ASCENT AND CAPE WILL BE
MAXIMIZED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SERN GULF AND SRN PANHANDLE MON
NIGHT. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH N OF THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE
NRN PANHANDLE TUE MORNING...AND LIKEWISE FOR THE SRN PANHANDLE TUE
NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES SE AWAY FROM THE REGION.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND NW ACROSS THE SRN
PANHANDLE AND ERN GULF TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON WILL YIELD AN OFFSHORE FLOW
REGIME FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST
TO BECOME PARTICULARLY TIGHT OVER LYNN CANAL...WITH SMALL CRAFT
TO POSSIBLE GALE STRENGTH NLYS EXPECTED AS A RESULT MON NIGHT
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE RELATIVELY LONG DURATION
OF STRONG NLYS COMBINED WITH A LONG FETCH DOWN LYNN CANAL WILL AID
IN ENHANCING WAVE HEIGHTS. ATTM...A CONSERVATIVE 7 FT MAX SEA
HEIGHT WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON 25 KT WINDS LASTING 40 HRS OVER A
FETCH OF 50 NM.

WED AND BEYOND...WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF...WHILE UNREMARKABLE FEATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT RESIDE
OVER THE PANHANDLE. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS PATTERN DUE TO POTENTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVER. MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO MARGINALLY BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WETTER PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IS STILL EVIDENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF
SHORTWAVE FEATURES.

INHERITED PRESSURE GRIDS WERE NUDGED TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF THROUGH
WED...AND THEN WPC THEREAFTER. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
POP AND QPF...MOST SIGNIFICANT NOTED TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD DUE TO A BLEND WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. WAVE HEIGHTS
OVER LYNN CANAL WERE MANUALLY ADJUSTED UPWARDS PER REASONING
DISCUSSED ABOVE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ023-026>028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ033>036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-031-032-043-051>053.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU





000
FXAK67 PAJK 302246
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
246 PM AKDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...QUICK DEVELOPING LOW THIS MORNING HAS RACED
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND HAS STARTED TO FILL AS IT
MOVES ACROSS TO BRITISH COLUMBIA. A LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO
A LOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES.

THE BAND OF HEAVIER RAINS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA BY EARLY EVENING. OPEN CELL SHOWERS IN THE FLOW PATTERN
HEADED TO SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS MORE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF FROM ABOUT SITKA
TO YAKUTAT.

THERE IS A FAIR SIZED COLD POOL ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE GULF. THIS IS ADDING TO THE INSTABILITY AND IS ALLOWING FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF BETTER CONVECTION. EAST OF 140 ROUGHLY AND
PUSHING INTO PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND.

STILL SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WEST COAST OF PRINCE OF WALES
ISLAND AND ALONG THE INNER CHANNELS SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND BUT
THE WINDS ARE SUBSIDING AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND PUSHES INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS EVENING.

ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES TODAY AS SOLUTIONS SEEMED TO BE GOOD THROUGH
MONDAY. CONFIDENCE WAS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...UPPER DISTURBANCE LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON OVER WRN
PORTIONS OF INTERIOR AK IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SE ACROSS THE
CNTRL/ERN GULF MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE. ASCENT AND CAPE WILL BE
MAXIMIZED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SERN GULF AND SRN PANHANDLE MON
NIGHT. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH N OF THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE
NRN PANHANDLE TUE MORNING...AND LIKEWISE FOR THE SRN PANHANDLE TUE
NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES SE AWAY FROM THE REGION.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND NW ACROSS THE SRN
PANHANDLE AND ERN GULF TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON WILL YIELD AN OFFSHORE FLOW
REGIME FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST
TO BECOME PARTICULARLY TIGHT OVER LYNN CANAL...WITH SMALL CRAFT
TO POSSIBLE GALE STRENGTH NLYS EXPECTED AS A RESULT MON NIGHT
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE RELATIVELY LONG DURATION
OF STRONG NLYS COMBINED WITH A LONG FETCH DOWN LYNN CANAL WILL AID
IN ENHANCING WAVE HEIGHTS. ATTM...A CONSERVATIVE 7 FT MAX SEA
HEIGHT WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON 25 KT WINDS LASTING 40 HRS OVER A
FETCH OF 50 NM.

WED AND BEYOND...WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF...WHILE UNREMARKABLE FEATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT RESIDE
OVER THE PANHANDLE. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS PATTERN DUE TO POTENTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVER. MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO MARGINALLY BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WETTER PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IS STILL EVIDENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF
SHORTWAVE FEATURES.

INHERITED PRESSURE GRIDS WERE NUDGED TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF THROUGH
WED...AND THEN WPC THEREAFTER. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
POP AND QPF...MOST SIGNIFICANT NOTED TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD DUE TO A BLEND WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. WAVE HEIGHTS
OVER LYNN CANAL WERE MANUALLY ADJUSTED UPWARDS PER REASONING
DISCUSSED ABOVE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ023-026>028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ033>036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-031-032-043-051>053.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU




000
FXAK67 PAJK 301444
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
644 AM AKDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER COMPLICATED FORECAST TODAY WITH TWO LOWS
AFFECTING THE AREA WITH HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS, STRONG WIND AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST WEAKER LOW IS CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF YAKUTAT AND
HAS BEEN CAUSING MODERATE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS OFFSHORE AND
NEAR THE MOUTH OF YAKUTAT BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25KT WITH
THIS LOW. LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED IN THE FAIRWEATHER
GROUNDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THE LOW IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN SOME THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS AT THE BASE OF A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
GULF WILL CAUSE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW SURFACE LOW EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING OVER THE FAR SE GULF. THIS LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BARANOF ISLAND. STRONG VORTICITY
ADVECTION (PVA) WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE LOW AS WELL...INCREASING
THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THIS LOW CENTER.

WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF SITKA. HAVE REDUCED THE HIGH WIND WATCH
TO A STRONG WIND HEADLINE AS WINDS GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO QUITE
REACH THE 60MPH CRITERIA OVER LAND. NEAR LINCOLN ISLAND AND CAPE
DECISION WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR THE MARINE AREAS OF
50KT...SO A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CLARENCE STRAIT. THE
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS POSE A THREAT FOR MUDSLIDES...SO HAVE
ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THAT INFORMATION.
THINK THE BIGGEST THREAT AREA FOR THAT WOULD BE PRINCE OF WALES
ISLAND.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THE SURFACE LOW LOSES SUPPORT CAUSING IT TO WEAKEN
QUICKLY AFTER IT MOVES INLAND. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST BEHIND THE LOW. THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION WILL SEE NORTHERLY WINDS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THEN
BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

THE NAM12 PICKED UP ON THE SECOND STRONGER LOW SEVERAL MODEL RUNS
AGO AND NOW THE CANADIAN REGIONAL MODELS LOOKS VERY SIMILAR. BOTH
HAVE A HIGHER TEMPORAL RESOLUTION WHICH HELPED WITH THIS FAST
MOVING SYSTEM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BASIC
WET/WINDY DAY FOR THE SOUTH...BUT LOWER ON DETAILS OF JUST HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL GET. ALSO LOWER CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH RAIN
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL RECEIVE AS THE LOW TO THE SOUTH COULD
CAUSE SHADOWING...BUT THE 1ST LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF HAS KEPT
POPS UP.

.LONG TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E THRU MIDWEEK. UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN GULF AROUND MIDWEEK. SHORTWAVE TROFS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN
COME IN MORE FROM THE N FOR MIDWEEK. FOR LATE WEEK ONWARD...MODELS
DIFFER ON POTENTIAL SYSTEM THAT MIGHT AFFECT THE AREA AS THEY
DIFFER ON HOW FAST UPPER TROF WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA...AND HOW
FAR W IT WILL BE BEFORE DIVING SE. ONE CONCERN LATER ON (OVER NEXT
COUPLE OF WEEKS) IS WHETHER ONE OF THE MYRIAD OF HURRICANES OVER
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL GET PULLED N INTO THE WESTERLIES AT SOME
POINT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
SEPTEMBER.

FOR MON...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ESE INTO THE ERN GULF AND BRING WEAK
SFC LOW WITH IT. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AND EVEN SOME TSTMS OVER THE SRN
GULF INTO SRN SE AK.

FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE
GULF...BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FURTHER OFFSHORE AS IT
PASSES BY THE AREA. INCREASING LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DIMINISH THE SHOWER THREAT LATER MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THERE MAY BE
A FEW TSTMS IN THE FAR SERN GULF AND SRN PANHANDLE MON NIGHT. MAY
SEE MORE SUNSHINE OVER THE NRN AREA TUE THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED
GIVEN THE INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW...ALTHOUGH BANDS OF MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS COULD AFFECT THE AREA FROM THE SHORTWAVE.

FOR TUE NIGHT INTO AT LEAST THU...PRECIP THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW ALTHOUGH WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL LIKELY DROP SWD THRU
THE AREA. WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THESE TO HAVE MAINLY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AT MOST AS LOWER LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY IN THE OFFSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ023-026>028.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ033>035-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ031-032-043-051>053.

&&

$$

FERRIN/RWT

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU




000
FXAK67 PAJK 301444
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
644 AM AKDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER COMPLICATED FORECAST TODAY WITH TWO LOWS
AFFECTING THE AREA WITH HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS, STRONG WIND AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST WEAKER LOW IS CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF YAKUTAT AND
HAS BEEN CAUSING MODERATE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS OFFSHORE AND
NEAR THE MOUTH OF YAKUTAT BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25KT WITH
THIS LOW. LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED IN THE FAIRWEATHER
GROUNDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THE LOW IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN SOME THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS AT THE BASE OF A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
GULF WILL CAUSE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW SURFACE LOW EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING OVER THE FAR SE GULF. THIS LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BARANOF ISLAND. STRONG VORTICITY
ADVECTION (PVA) WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE LOW AS WELL...INCREASING
THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THIS LOW CENTER.

WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF SITKA. HAVE REDUCED THE HIGH WIND WATCH
TO A STRONG WIND HEADLINE AS WINDS GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO QUITE
REACH THE 60MPH CRITERIA OVER LAND. NEAR LINCOLN ISLAND AND CAPE
DECISION WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR THE MARINE AREAS OF
50KT...SO A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CLARENCE STRAIT. THE
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS POSE A THREAT FOR MUDSLIDES...SO HAVE
ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THAT INFORMATION.
THINK THE BIGGEST THREAT AREA FOR THAT WOULD BE PRINCE OF WALES
ISLAND.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THE SURFACE LOW LOSES SUPPORT CAUSING IT TO WEAKEN
QUICKLY AFTER IT MOVES INLAND. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST BEHIND THE LOW. THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION WILL SEE NORTHERLY WINDS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THEN
BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

THE NAM12 PICKED UP ON THE SECOND STRONGER LOW SEVERAL MODEL RUNS
AGO AND NOW THE CANADIAN REGIONAL MODELS LOOKS VERY SIMILAR. BOTH
HAVE A HIGHER TEMPORAL RESOLUTION WHICH HELPED WITH THIS FAST
MOVING SYSTEM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BASIC
WET/WINDY DAY FOR THE SOUTH...BUT LOWER ON DETAILS OF JUST HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL GET. ALSO LOWER CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH RAIN
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL RECEIVE AS THE LOW TO THE SOUTH COULD
CAUSE SHADOWING...BUT THE 1ST LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF HAS KEPT
POPS UP.

.LONG TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E THRU MIDWEEK. UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN GULF AROUND MIDWEEK. SHORTWAVE TROFS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN
COME IN MORE FROM THE N FOR MIDWEEK. FOR LATE WEEK ONWARD...MODELS
DIFFER ON POTENTIAL SYSTEM THAT MIGHT AFFECT THE AREA AS THEY
DIFFER ON HOW FAST UPPER TROF WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA...AND HOW
FAR W IT WILL BE BEFORE DIVING SE. ONE CONCERN LATER ON (OVER NEXT
COUPLE OF WEEKS) IS WHETHER ONE OF THE MYRIAD OF HURRICANES OVER
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL GET PULLED N INTO THE WESTERLIES AT SOME
POINT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
SEPTEMBER.

FOR MON...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ESE INTO THE ERN GULF AND BRING WEAK
SFC LOW WITH IT. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AND EVEN SOME TSTMS OVER THE SRN
GULF INTO SRN SE AK.

FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE
GULF...BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FURTHER OFFSHORE AS IT
PASSES BY THE AREA. INCREASING LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DIMINISH THE SHOWER THREAT LATER MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THERE MAY BE
A FEW TSTMS IN THE FAR SERN GULF AND SRN PANHANDLE MON NIGHT. MAY
SEE MORE SUNSHINE OVER THE NRN AREA TUE THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED
GIVEN THE INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW...ALTHOUGH BANDS OF MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS COULD AFFECT THE AREA FROM THE SHORTWAVE.

FOR TUE NIGHT INTO AT LEAST THU...PRECIP THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW ALTHOUGH WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL LIKELY DROP SWD THRU
THE AREA. WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THESE TO HAVE MAINLY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AT MOST AS LOWER LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY IN THE OFFSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ023-026>028.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ033>035-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ031-032-043-051>053.

&&

$$

FERRIN/RWT

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU




000
FXAK67 PAJK 301444
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
644 AM AKDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER COMPLICATED FORECAST TODAY WITH TWO LOWS
AFFECTING THE AREA WITH HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS, STRONG WIND AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST WEAKER LOW IS CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF YAKUTAT AND
HAS BEEN CAUSING MODERATE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS OFFSHORE AND
NEAR THE MOUTH OF YAKUTAT BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25KT WITH
THIS LOW. LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED IN THE FAIRWEATHER
GROUNDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THE LOW IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN SOME THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS AT THE BASE OF A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
GULF WILL CAUSE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW SURFACE LOW EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING OVER THE FAR SE GULF. THIS LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BARANOF ISLAND. STRONG VORTICITY
ADVECTION (PVA) WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE LOW AS WELL...INCREASING
THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THIS LOW CENTER.

WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF SITKA. HAVE REDUCED THE HIGH WIND WATCH
TO A STRONG WIND HEADLINE AS WINDS GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO QUITE
REACH THE 60MPH CRITERIA OVER LAND. NEAR LINCOLN ISLAND AND CAPE
DECISION WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR THE MARINE AREAS OF
50KT...SO A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CLARENCE STRAIT. THE
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS POSE A THREAT FOR MUDSLIDES...SO HAVE
ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THAT INFORMATION.
THINK THE BIGGEST THREAT AREA FOR THAT WOULD BE PRINCE OF WALES
ISLAND.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THE SURFACE LOW LOSES SUPPORT CAUSING IT TO WEAKEN
QUICKLY AFTER IT MOVES INLAND. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST BEHIND THE LOW. THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION WILL SEE NORTHERLY WINDS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THEN
BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

THE NAM12 PICKED UP ON THE SECOND STRONGER LOW SEVERAL MODEL RUNS
AGO AND NOW THE CANADIAN REGIONAL MODELS LOOKS VERY SIMILAR. BOTH
HAVE A HIGHER TEMPORAL RESOLUTION WHICH HELPED WITH THIS FAST
MOVING SYSTEM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BASIC
WET/WINDY DAY FOR THE SOUTH...BUT LOWER ON DETAILS OF JUST HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL GET. ALSO LOWER CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH RAIN
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL RECEIVE AS THE LOW TO THE SOUTH COULD
CAUSE SHADOWING...BUT THE 1ST LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF HAS KEPT
POPS UP.

.LONG TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E THRU MIDWEEK. UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN GULF AROUND MIDWEEK. SHORTWAVE TROFS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN
COME IN MORE FROM THE N FOR MIDWEEK. FOR LATE WEEK ONWARD...MODELS
DIFFER ON POTENTIAL SYSTEM THAT MIGHT AFFECT THE AREA AS THEY
DIFFER ON HOW FAST UPPER TROF WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA...AND HOW
FAR W IT WILL BE BEFORE DIVING SE. ONE CONCERN LATER ON (OVER NEXT
COUPLE OF WEEKS) IS WHETHER ONE OF THE MYRIAD OF HURRICANES OVER
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL GET PULLED N INTO THE WESTERLIES AT SOME
POINT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
SEPTEMBER.

FOR MON...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ESE INTO THE ERN GULF AND BRING WEAK
SFC LOW WITH IT. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AND EVEN SOME TSTMS OVER THE SRN
GULF INTO SRN SE AK.

FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE
GULF...BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FURTHER OFFSHORE AS IT
PASSES BY THE AREA. INCREASING LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DIMINISH THE SHOWER THREAT LATER MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THERE MAY BE
A FEW TSTMS IN THE FAR SERN GULF AND SRN PANHANDLE MON NIGHT. MAY
SEE MORE SUNSHINE OVER THE NRN AREA TUE THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED
GIVEN THE INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW...ALTHOUGH BANDS OF MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS COULD AFFECT THE AREA FROM THE SHORTWAVE.

FOR TUE NIGHT INTO AT LEAST THU...PRECIP THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW ALTHOUGH WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL LIKELY DROP SWD THRU
THE AREA. WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THESE TO HAVE MAINLY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AT MOST AS LOWER LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY IN THE OFFSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ023-026>028.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ033>035-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ031-032-043-051>053.

&&

$$

FERRIN/RWT

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU





000
FXAK67 PAJK 301444
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
644 AM AKDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER COMPLICATED FORECAST TODAY WITH TWO LOWS
AFFECTING THE AREA WITH HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS, STRONG WIND AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST WEAKER LOW IS CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF YAKUTAT AND
HAS BEEN CAUSING MODERATE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS OFFSHORE AND
NEAR THE MOUTH OF YAKUTAT BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25KT WITH
THIS LOW. LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED IN THE FAIRWEATHER
GROUNDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THE LOW IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN SOME THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS AT THE BASE OF A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
GULF WILL CAUSE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW SURFACE LOW EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING OVER THE FAR SE GULF. THIS LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BARANOF ISLAND. STRONG VORTICITY
ADVECTION (PVA) WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE LOW AS WELL...INCREASING
THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THIS LOW CENTER.

WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF SITKA. HAVE REDUCED THE HIGH WIND WATCH
TO A STRONG WIND HEADLINE AS WINDS GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO QUITE
REACH THE 60MPH CRITERIA OVER LAND. NEAR LINCOLN ISLAND AND CAPE
DECISION WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR THE MARINE AREAS OF
50KT...SO A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CLARENCE STRAIT. THE
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS POSE A THREAT FOR MUDSLIDES...SO HAVE
ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THAT INFORMATION.
THINK THE BIGGEST THREAT AREA FOR THAT WOULD BE PRINCE OF WALES
ISLAND.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THE SURFACE LOW LOSES SUPPORT CAUSING IT TO WEAKEN
QUICKLY AFTER IT MOVES INLAND. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST BEHIND THE LOW. THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION WILL SEE NORTHERLY WINDS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THEN
BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

THE NAM12 PICKED UP ON THE SECOND STRONGER LOW SEVERAL MODEL RUNS
AGO AND NOW THE CANADIAN REGIONAL MODELS LOOKS VERY SIMILAR. BOTH
HAVE A HIGHER TEMPORAL RESOLUTION WHICH HELPED WITH THIS FAST
MOVING SYSTEM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BASIC
WET/WINDY DAY FOR THE SOUTH...BUT LOWER ON DETAILS OF JUST HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL GET. ALSO LOWER CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH RAIN
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL RECEIVE AS THE LOW TO THE SOUTH COULD
CAUSE SHADOWING...BUT THE 1ST LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF HAS KEPT
POPS UP.

.LONG TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E THRU MIDWEEK. UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN GULF AROUND MIDWEEK. SHORTWAVE TROFS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN
COME IN MORE FROM THE N FOR MIDWEEK. FOR LATE WEEK ONWARD...MODELS
DIFFER ON POTENTIAL SYSTEM THAT MIGHT AFFECT THE AREA AS THEY
DIFFER ON HOW FAST UPPER TROF WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA...AND HOW
FAR W IT WILL BE BEFORE DIVING SE. ONE CONCERN LATER ON (OVER NEXT
COUPLE OF WEEKS) IS WHETHER ONE OF THE MYRIAD OF HURRICANES OVER
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL GET PULLED N INTO THE WESTERLIES AT SOME
POINT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
SEPTEMBER.

FOR MON...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ESE INTO THE ERN GULF AND BRING WEAK
SFC LOW WITH IT. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AND EVEN SOME TSTMS OVER THE SRN
GULF INTO SRN SE AK.

FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE
GULF...BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FURTHER OFFSHORE AS IT
PASSES BY THE AREA. INCREASING LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DIMINISH THE SHOWER THREAT LATER MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THERE MAY BE
A FEW TSTMS IN THE FAR SERN GULF AND SRN PANHANDLE MON NIGHT. MAY
SEE MORE SUNSHINE OVER THE NRN AREA TUE THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED
GIVEN THE INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW...ALTHOUGH BANDS OF MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS COULD AFFECT THE AREA FROM THE SHORTWAVE.

FOR TUE NIGHT INTO AT LEAST THU...PRECIP THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW ALTHOUGH WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL LIKELY DROP SWD THRU
THE AREA. WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THESE TO HAVE MAINLY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AT MOST AS LOWER LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY IN THE OFFSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ023-026>028.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ033>035-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ031-032-043-051>053.

&&

$$

FERRIN/RWT

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU





000
FXAK67 PAJK 300117 CCA
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
234 PM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM.../ SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY / THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE LONG
WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST IS SHORTENING TO MORE OF A DUAL CLOSED
LOW FEATURE WITH THE SOUTHERN CENTER NEAR NORTHEAST GULF OF
ALASKA. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THAT HAD BEEN MOVING RAINS NORTH
OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL BE PUSHING INLAND THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THIS FEATURE HAS A SOLID
JET WITH SPEEDS OF 120-140 KT AND WITH THE LIFT ON THE EXIT
REGION OF THE JET THIS WILL HELP TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN THE SURFACE
LOW OVERNIGHT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY
MORNING.

A FAIR SIZED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST TO EAST ACROSS
THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM MAINLAND OF THE STATE. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE AREAS OF STRONGER VERTICAL LIFT AT THE MID LEVELS IS
SUGGESTING THAT POCKETS OF ISOLATED THUNDER MAY DEVELOP THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND CONTINUE SUNDAY AS THE COLD AIR FOLLOWS THE NEW LOW
INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THERE WAS SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SO THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR THE MODELS.

THE LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE NEAR CAPE
DECISION AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY LOOKS AS IF IT COULD BE DEEPENING TO
THE UPPER 970S OR NEAR 980 MB AND AS SUCH THE RESULTANT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WILL BE SUPPORTING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. I HAVE GONE WITH 35 KT ON THE OUTSIDE AND 40 KT
IN THE CLARENCE STRAIT AREA...AND GUSTS HITTING THE COAST OF 40 TO
50 MPH. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS THROUGH THE EVENING TO SEE IF THE
NEW 00Z RUNS ARE SIMILAR...IN WHICH CASE A POTENTIAL FOR UPGRADING
TO A WIND WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AND LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF ICY STRAIT.

.LONG TERM...A SERIES OF UPPER VORT LOBES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE SE
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST LOBE WILL BE
EXITING THE SRN PANHANDLE INTO BC AT 06Z MON...FOLLOWED BY THE
SECOND SAGGING ACROSS THE SERN GULF...AND THE THIRD MOVING FROM
INTERIOR AK EARLY MON MORNING ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF BY MON
EVENING. THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
PANHANDLE...AND MAY AUGMENT ASCENT SUFFICIENTLY OVER THE GULF FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF COLD
MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND MODEST MUCAPE
VALUES.

AS THE THIRD VORT LOBE PIVOTS SE AWAY FROM THE SRN PANHANDLE TUE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...SHOWER COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO
DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALSO BECOME NLY...WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER NRN LYNN CANAL
PROBABLE MON EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY WED. IN ADDITION...LONG FETCH
OF 20+ KT NWLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN SEAS
AOA 8 FT OVER THE CNTRL/SRN OUTSIDE WATERS MON AND TUE.

SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS THEN FORECAST TO BECOME WEAK BY WED
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE NEXT POTENTIAL
STORM SYSTEM FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS EVIDENT BY DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE BEING OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER IN
TERMS OF SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AND POSITION. THUS DID NOT
LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD ANY PARTICULAR MODEL-SOLUTION DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

PRESSURE GRIDS WERE NUDGED TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF THROUGH WED...THEN
WPC THEREAFTER. INHERITED POP GRIDS WERE BLENDED SLIGHTLY TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO QPF.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ027-028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-033>035-043.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU





000
FXAK67 PAJK 292234
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
234 PM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM.../ SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY / THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE LONG
WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST IS SHORTENING TO MORE OF A DUAL CLOSED
LOW FEATURE WITH THE SOUTHERN CENTER NEAR NORTHEAST GULF OF
ALASKA. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THAT HAD BEEN MOVING RAINS NORTH
OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL BE PUSHING INLAND THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THIS FEATURE HAS A SOLID
JET WITH SPEEDS OF 120-140 KT AND WITH THE LIFT ON THE EXIT
REGION OF THE JET THIS WILL HELP TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN THE SURFACE
LOW OVERNIGHT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY
MORNING.

A FAIR SIZED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST TO EAST ACROSS
THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM MAINLAND OF THE STATE. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE AREAS OF STRONGER VERTICAL LIFT AT THE MID LEVELS IS
SUGGESTING THAT POCKETS OF ISOLATED THUNDER MAY DEVELOP THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND CONTINUE SUNDAY AS THE COLD AIR FOLLOWS THE NEW LOW
INTO THE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THERE WAS SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...SO THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR THE MODELS.

THE LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE NEAR CAPE
DECISION AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY LOOKS AS IF IT COULD BE DEEPENING TO
THE UPPER 970S OR NEAR 980 MB AND AS SUCH THE RESULTANT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WILL BE
SUPPORTING STRONG GUSTY WINDS. I HAVE WENT WITH GALE FORCE ON THE
OUTSIDE AND 40 KT IN THE CLARENCE STRAIT AREA... AND GUSTS HITTING
THE COAST OF 40 TO 50 MPH. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS THROUGH THE
EVENING TO SEE IF THE NEW 00Z RUNS ARE SIMILAR...IN WHICH CASE A
POTENTIAL FOR UPGRADING TO A WIND WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AND LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF ICY STRAIT.

.LONG TERM...A SERIES OF UPPER VORT LOBES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE SE
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST LOBE WILL BE
EXITING THE SRN PANHANDLE INTO BC AT 06Z MON...FOLLOWED BY THE
SECOND SAGGING ACROSS THE SERN GULF...AND THE THIRD MOVING FROM
INTERIOR AK EARLY MON MORNING ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF BY MON
EVENING. THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
PANHANDLE...AND MAY AUGMENT ASCENT SUFFICIENTLY OVER THE GULF FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF COLD
MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND MODEST MUCAPE
VALUES.

AS THE THIRD VORT LOBE PIVOTS SE AWAY FROM THE SRN PANHANDLE TUE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...SHOWER COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO
DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALSO BECOME NLY...WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER NRN LYNN CANAL
PROBABLE MON EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY WED. IN ADDITION...LONG FETCH
OF 20+ KT NWLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN SEAS
AOA 8 FT OVER THE CNTRL/SRN OUTSIDE WATERS MON AND TUE.

SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS THEN FORECAST TO BECOME WEAK BY WED
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE NEXT POTENTIAL
STORM SYSTEM FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS EVIDENT BY DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE BEING OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER IN
TERMS OF SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AND POSITION. THUS DID NOT
LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD ANY PARTICULAR MODEL-SOLUTION DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

PRESSURE GRIDS WERE NUDGED TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF THROUGH WED...THEN
WPC THEREAFTER. INHERITED POP GRIDS WERE BLENDED SLIGHTLY TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO QPF.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ027-028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-033>035-043.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU




000
FXAK67 PAJK 291404
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
604 AM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF HAS BECOME
ELONGATED WITH MULTIPLE SMALLER VORTICIES LOOKING AT SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SOME OF THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE HAVE INTENSIFIED OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES DETECTED IN MARINE AREA 43. THESE
CELLS LOOK STRONG ON THE RADAR IN AREA 42 AND 43 SO HAVE GONE WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS THIS
MORNING AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE SOUTH. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND UP THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND THIS IS WHERE THE HEAVIEST AND MOST
PERSISTENT SHOWERS WILL BE TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME
SCATTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY
(JUNEAU/ANGOON/KAKE LINE).

THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS IS CAUSING SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH SEVERAL MARINE AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH LYNN CANAL...EAST WINDS OUT OF CROSS SOUND
AND SE WINDS THROUGH CLARENCE STRAIT. THESE WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE MORNING AS THE LOW WEAKENS. BY THIS AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE LITTLE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. MANY
PLACES WILL SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING...THEN THE LOW CENTER LOOKS TO REDEVELOP OFFSHORE OF
YAKUTAT. THIS WILL CAUSE INCREASING SELY WINDS OVERNIGHT UP TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVEL THROUGH CLARENCE STRAIT AND OUT OF CROSS SOUND.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE AS THE LOW REDEVELOPS AS WELL. THE
YAKUTAT AREA WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME MODERATE SHOWERS. HAVE ALSO
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER OFFSHORE NEAR THE LOW CENTER
TONIGHT (MARINE AREAS 43/51/51).

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HOW THEY EVLOLVE THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. BUT IT IS STILL AN UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR OUR
REGION...MEANING THE MODELS LIKELY HAVE ERRORS (OVER DOING POPS
FOR EXAMPLE). HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THAT EFFECT BUT
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN N

.LONG TERM...UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN SHIFT SLOWLY EWD FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
SHORTWAVE TROF WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE SE GULF SUN. THIS
WILL CAUSE A SFC LOW TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE SE GULF
SUN...THEN ACROSS SE AK SUN EVENING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE
INTO THE ERN GULF MON WITH WEAKER SFC LOW MOVING ALONG WITH THAT
FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SE INTERIOR AK AND THE
YUKON EARLY NEXT WEEK. USED BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF THRU
MON TO CAPTURE STRONGER SFC LOW FOR SUN AND RESIDUAL FEATURES
LEFT OVER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR SUN...AS LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SE GULF...OCCLUDED FRONTAL
BAND WILL ORGANIZE WITH IT AND MOVE ONSHORE LATE SUN MORNING. FRONT
WILL PRODUCE 25-30 KT WINDS AHEAD OF IT OVER THE SE GULF...WITH
30-35 KT WINDS ON SW SIDE OF LOW AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES. A
WELL ORGANIZED BAND OF RAIN SHOULD AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA SUN
WITH THE FRONT. RAIN COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY SE OF PAGN-PASI LINE.
SOME SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE GULF AND PAYA AREAS NEAR WEAK
LOW IN THAT AREA.

SUN NIGHT AND MON...PRECIP WILL BECOME SHOWERY AGAIN AREA WIDE AS
COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN BEHIND LOW AND FRONT. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR TSTM ACTIVITY OVER MAINLY THE SRN
GULF AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THRU THAT AREA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER MUCH OF THE GULF DURING THIS TIME.

BEYOND MON...A DRIER PERIOD LOOKS LIKELY FOR MIDWEEK AS UPPER
TROF SHIFTS INLAND AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NLY. LATE IN
THE WEEK...THE MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT ON A SYSTEM THAT MAY END UP
IN THE GULF BY FRI...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS CONSIDERABLY AT
THAT POINT.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-031-036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042.

&&

$$

FERRIN/RWT

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU





000
FXAK67 PAJK 291404
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
604 AM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF HAS BECOME
ELONGATED WITH MULTIPLE SMALLER VORTICIES LOOKING AT SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SOME OF THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE HAVE INTENSIFIED OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES DETECTED IN MARINE AREA 43. THESE
CELLS LOOK STRONG ON THE RADAR IN AREA 42 AND 43 SO HAVE GONE WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS THIS
MORNING AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE SOUTH. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND UP THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND THIS IS WHERE THE HEAVIEST AND MOST
PERSISTENT SHOWERS WILL BE TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME
SCATTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY
(JUNEAU/ANGOON/KAKE LINE).

THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS IS CAUSING SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH SEVERAL MARINE AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH LYNN CANAL...EAST WINDS OUT OF CROSS SOUND
AND SE WINDS THROUGH CLARENCE STRAIT. THESE WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE MORNING AS THE LOW WEAKENS. BY THIS AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE LITTLE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. MANY
PLACES WILL SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING...THEN THE LOW CENTER LOOKS TO REDEVELOP OFFSHORE OF
YAKUTAT. THIS WILL CAUSE INCREASING SELY WINDS OVERNIGHT UP TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVEL THROUGH CLARENCE STRAIT AND OUT OF CROSS SOUND.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE AS THE LOW REDEVELOPS AS WELL. THE
YAKUTAT AREA WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME MODERATE SHOWERS. HAVE ALSO
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER OFFSHORE NEAR THE LOW CENTER
TONIGHT (MARINE AREAS 43/51/51).

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HOW THEY EVLOLVE THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. BUT IT IS STILL AN UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR OUR
REGION...MEANING THE MODELS LIKELY HAVE ERRORS (OVER DOING POPS
FOR EXAMPLE). HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THAT EFFECT BUT
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN N

.LONG TERM...UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN SHIFT SLOWLY EWD FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
SHORTWAVE TROF WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE SE GULF SUN. THIS
WILL CAUSE A SFC LOW TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE SE GULF
SUN...THEN ACROSS SE AK SUN EVENING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE
INTO THE ERN GULF MON WITH WEAKER SFC LOW MOVING ALONG WITH THAT
FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SE INTERIOR AK AND THE
YUKON EARLY NEXT WEEK. USED BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF THRU
MON TO CAPTURE STRONGER SFC LOW FOR SUN AND RESIDUAL FEATURES
LEFT OVER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR SUN...AS LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SE GULF...OCCLUDED FRONTAL
BAND WILL ORGANIZE WITH IT AND MOVE ONSHORE LATE SUN MORNING. FRONT
WILL PRODUCE 25-30 KT WINDS AHEAD OF IT OVER THE SE GULF...WITH
30-35 KT WINDS ON SW SIDE OF LOW AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES. A
WELL ORGANIZED BAND OF RAIN SHOULD AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA SUN
WITH THE FRONT. RAIN COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY SE OF PAGN-PASI LINE.
SOME SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE GULF AND PAYA AREAS NEAR WEAK
LOW IN THAT AREA.

SUN NIGHT AND MON...PRECIP WILL BECOME SHOWERY AGAIN AREA WIDE AS
COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN BEHIND LOW AND FRONT. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR TSTM ACTIVITY OVER MAINLY THE SRN
GULF AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THRU THAT AREA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER MUCH OF THE GULF DURING THIS TIME.

BEYOND MON...A DRIER PERIOD LOOKS LIKELY FOR MIDWEEK AS UPPER
TROF SHIFTS INLAND AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NLY. LATE IN
THE WEEK...THE MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT ON A SYSTEM THAT MAY END UP
IN THE GULF BY FRI...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS CONSIDERABLY AT
THAT POINT.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-031-036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042.

&&

$$

FERRIN/RWT

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU




000
FXAK67 PAJK 291404
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
604 AM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF HAS BECOME
ELONGATED WITH MULTIPLE SMALLER VORTICIES LOOKING AT SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SOME OF THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE HAVE INTENSIFIED OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES DETECTED IN MARINE AREA 43. THESE
CELLS LOOK STRONG ON THE RADAR IN AREA 42 AND 43 SO HAVE GONE WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS THIS
MORNING AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE SOUTH. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND UP THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND THIS IS WHERE THE HEAVIEST AND MOST
PERSISTENT SHOWERS WILL BE TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME
SCATTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY
(JUNEAU/ANGOON/KAKE LINE).

THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS IS CAUSING SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH SEVERAL MARINE AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH LYNN CANAL...EAST WINDS OUT OF CROSS SOUND
AND SE WINDS THROUGH CLARENCE STRAIT. THESE WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE MORNING AS THE LOW WEAKENS. BY THIS AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE LITTLE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. MANY
PLACES WILL SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING...THEN THE LOW CENTER LOOKS TO REDEVELOP OFFSHORE OF
YAKUTAT. THIS WILL CAUSE INCREASING SELY WINDS OVERNIGHT UP TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVEL THROUGH CLARENCE STRAIT AND OUT OF CROSS SOUND.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE AS THE LOW REDEVELOPS AS WELL. THE
YAKUTAT AREA WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME MODERATE SHOWERS. HAVE ALSO
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER OFFSHORE NEAR THE LOW CENTER
TONIGHT (MARINE AREAS 43/51/51).

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HOW THEY EVLOLVE THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. BUT IT IS STILL AN UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR OUR
REGION...MEANING THE MODELS LIKELY HAVE ERRORS (OVER DOING POPS
FOR EXAMPLE). HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THAT EFFECT BUT
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN N

.LONG TERM...UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN SHIFT SLOWLY EWD FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
SHORTWAVE TROF WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE SE GULF SUN. THIS
WILL CAUSE A SFC LOW TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE SE GULF
SUN...THEN ACROSS SE AK SUN EVENING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE
INTO THE ERN GULF MON WITH WEAKER SFC LOW MOVING ALONG WITH THAT
FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SE INTERIOR AK AND THE
YUKON EARLY NEXT WEEK. USED BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF THRU
MON TO CAPTURE STRONGER SFC LOW FOR SUN AND RESIDUAL FEATURES
LEFT OVER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR SUN...AS LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SE GULF...OCCLUDED FRONTAL
BAND WILL ORGANIZE WITH IT AND MOVE ONSHORE LATE SUN MORNING. FRONT
WILL PRODUCE 25-30 KT WINDS AHEAD OF IT OVER THE SE GULF...WITH
30-35 KT WINDS ON SW SIDE OF LOW AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES. A
WELL ORGANIZED BAND OF RAIN SHOULD AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA SUN
WITH THE FRONT. RAIN COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY SE OF PAGN-PASI LINE.
SOME SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE GULF AND PAYA AREAS NEAR WEAK
LOW IN THAT AREA.

SUN NIGHT AND MON...PRECIP WILL BECOME SHOWERY AGAIN AREA WIDE AS
COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN BEHIND LOW AND FRONT. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR TSTM ACTIVITY OVER MAINLY THE SRN
GULF AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THRU THAT AREA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER MUCH OF THE GULF DURING THIS TIME.

BEYOND MON...A DRIER PERIOD LOOKS LIKELY FOR MIDWEEK AS UPPER
TROF SHIFTS INLAND AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NLY. LATE IN
THE WEEK...THE MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT ON A SYSTEM THAT MAY END UP
IN THE GULF BY FRI...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS CONSIDERABLY AT
THAT POINT.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-031-036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042.

&&

$$

FERRIN/RWT

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU




000
FXAK67 PAJK 291404
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
604 AM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF HAS BECOME
ELONGATED WITH MULTIPLE SMALLER VORTICIES LOOKING AT SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SOME OF THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE HAVE INTENSIFIED OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES DETECTED IN MARINE AREA 43. THESE
CELLS LOOK STRONG ON THE RADAR IN AREA 42 AND 43 SO HAVE GONE WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS THIS
MORNING AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE SOUTH. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND UP THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND THIS IS WHERE THE HEAVIEST AND MOST
PERSISTENT SHOWERS WILL BE TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME
SCATTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY
(JUNEAU/ANGOON/KAKE LINE).

THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS IS CAUSING SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH SEVERAL MARINE AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH LYNN CANAL...EAST WINDS OUT OF CROSS SOUND
AND SE WINDS THROUGH CLARENCE STRAIT. THESE WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE MORNING AS THE LOW WEAKENS. BY THIS AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE LITTLE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. MANY
PLACES WILL SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING...THEN THE LOW CENTER LOOKS TO REDEVELOP OFFSHORE OF
YAKUTAT. THIS WILL CAUSE INCREASING SELY WINDS OVERNIGHT UP TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVEL THROUGH CLARENCE STRAIT AND OUT OF CROSS SOUND.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE AS THE LOW REDEVELOPS AS WELL. THE
YAKUTAT AREA WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME MODERATE SHOWERS. HAVE ALSO
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER OFFSHORE NEAR THE LOW CENTER
TONIGHT (MARINE AREAS 43/51/51).

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HOW THEY EVLOLVE THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. BUT IT IS STILL AN UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR OUR
REGION...MEANING THE MODELS LIKELY HAVE ERRORS (OVER DOING POPS
FOR EXAMPLE). HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THAT EFFECT BUT
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN N

.LONG TERM...UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN SHIFT SLOWLY EWD FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
SHORTWAVE TROF WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE SE GULF SUN. THIS
WILL CAUSE A SFC LOW TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE SE GULF
SUN...THEN ACROSS SE AK SUN EVENING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE
INTO THE ERN GULF MON WITH WEAKER SFC LOW MOVING ALONG WITH THAT
FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SE INTERIOR AK AND THE
YUKON EARLY NEXT WEEK. USED BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF THRU
MON TO CAPTURE STRONGER SFC LOW FOR SUN AND RESIDUAL FEATURES
LEFT OVER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR SUN...AS LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SE GULF...OCCLUDED FRONTAL
BAND WILL ORGANIZE WITH IT AND MOVE ONSHORE LATE SUN MORNING. FRONT
WILL PRODUCE 25-30 KT WINDS AHEAD OF IT OVER THE SE GULF...WITH
30-35 KT WINDS ON SW SIDE OF LOW AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES. A
WELL ORGANIZED BAND OF RAIN SHOULD AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA SUN
WITH THE FRONT. RAIN COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY SE OF PAGN-PASI LINE.
SOME SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE GULF AND PAYA AREAS NEAR WEAK
LOW IN THAT AREA.

SUN NIGHT AND MON...PRECIP WILL BECOME SHOWERY AGAIN AREA WIDE AS
COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN BEHIND LOW AND FRONT. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR TSTM ACTIVITY OVER MAINLY THE SRN
GULF AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THRU THAT AREA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER MUCH OF THE GULF DURING THIS TIME.

BEYOND MON...A DRIER PERIOD LOOKS LIKELY FOR MIDWEEK AS UPPER
TROF SHIFTS INLAND AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NLY. LATE IN
THE WEEK...THE MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT ON A SYSTEM THAT MAY END UP
IN THE GULF BY FRI...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS CONSIDERABLY AT
THAT POINT.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-031-036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042.

&&

$$

FERRIN/RWT

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU





000
FXAK67 PAJK 290142 CCA
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
351 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...RATHER WET, GRAY DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TODAY AS A
990 MB LOW NEAR 56N 140W SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SE. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND CONTINUES TO
PUMP A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN INTO THAT AREA. KETCHIKAN AND ANNETTE
HAVE BEEN SEEING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN EVERY HOUR SINCE
AROUND 6 AM WITH HIGHER RAINFALL RATES SEEN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
PW RETRIEVALS ALONG THIS FRONT ARE ONLY REACHING 1.1 INCHES WHICH
IS AROUND 130 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN GUSTY ALONG
THIS FRONT AS WELL. A STRONG WIND HEADLINE REMAINS UP FOR ZONE 28
AS KETCHIKAN AND ANNETTE HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH ALL DAY.
A GALE WARNING ALSO REMAINS UP FOR CLARENCE STRAIT THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

ELSEWHERE RAINFALL RATES LIGHTEN UP CONSIDERABLY ONCE YOU GET TO
THE OUTER COAST OR NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND YAKUTAT HAS ENDED UP
WITH A DRY DAY AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AIDING THAT
DRYING TREND IS NORTHERLY OUTFLOW THAT IS CURRENTLY BLOWING
THROUGH THE VARIOUS INTERIOR PASSES OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. A
WEAK BUT COOL SURFACE HIGH HAS INFILTRATED THE SOUTHERN YUKON AND
INCREASED NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE ST. ELIAS RANGE.
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL IS CURRENTLY BLOWING GALE FORCE WITH CROSS
SOUND SEEING SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND THE PASSES EAST OF YAKUTAT ARE
ALSO SEEING GUSTY WINDS.

INTO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW THE LOW IN THE GULF AND THE FRONT WILL
EXPERIENCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. THOUGH WITH THE FRONT
STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THE RAIN AND WIND THERE WILL
NOT QUIT ANYTIME SOON JUST GRADUALLY DIMINISH. FARTHER NORTH, A
FRONTAL RAIN BAND IS HEADING NORTHWEST ALONG THE PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING AND WILL BEING MORE RAIN TO MOST AREAS. HOWEVER IT WILL
BE WEAKENING AS IT GOES AND WILL ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN BY THE
TIME IT GETS TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. YAKUTAT WILL ALSO GET IN
ON THIS BAND BUT WITH IT FIGHTING THE OUTFLOW NOT MUCH RAIN IS
EXPECTED OUT OF IT ONCE IT GETS THAT FAR WEST AND NORTH. ALSO OF
CONSIDERATION IS THE COLD TROUGH OVER THE GULF LOW. THIS HAS BEEN
SPARKING OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF THE LOW CENTER IN
THE GULF ALL DAY. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES INTO
TOMORROW IN THE GULF AND MAY GET ONSHORE AROUND BARANOF ISLAND
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO
MOVE EAST. AS SUCH HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THESE AREAS.

AS FOR THE OUTFLOW WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, THE INTERIOR
ALASKA HIGH WILL BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SO
WINDS SHOULD START TO CALM DOWN TONIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TOMORROW SO WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA TOMORROW.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
USED HI-RES NAM FOR MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY WHICH HELPED IN FINE
TUNING THE FRONTAL WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND THE OUTFLOW
WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL LONG-WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA TO ABOUT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS ALTERING TO A LOWER
AMPLITUDE TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A 140 KT JET MAXIMA. IT
WILL HELP MOVE THE SYSTEM QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. I SUSPECT THE BEST
RAINFALL TOTALS AND WIND FEATURES WILL IMPACT BRITISH COLUMBIA MORE
SO THAN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE LOOKS TO BE 1 TO 2 INCHES WHICH WILL RAISE STREAMS BACK UP
BUT SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY FLOODING ISSUES. HOWEVER, A SLIGHTLY
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE SYSTEM COULD BRING THE HEAVIER RAINS
NORTH OF THE DIXON ENTRANCE REGION.

A THIRD SHORT WAVE HEADED SOUTHEAST WILL STEER THE UPPER LOW THAT
HAD BEEN OVER THE ALASKAN INTERIOR INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA
FOR MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA WILL
THEN START BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
DIMINISHING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY FROM THE
NORTH TO SOUTH PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK.

DID WORK ON SOME MORE MODIFICATION OF THE TEMPERATURES WITH THE
DRIER/LESS CLOUDY WEATHER...BUT OVERALL ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MOST
MID RANGE ITEMS.

USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN
STARTED TO TRANSITION OVER THE HPC GUIDANCE AND HAVE GOOD TO
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE OF THE RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS
CREATING SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS AT THE MOMENT. STANEY CREEK NEAR
KLAWOCK ROSE 5 FEET THIS MORNING, BUT WITH ALL THE HEAVIER RAIN NOW
TO ITS EAST, THE CREEK IS CRESTING AROUND 2 FEET BELOW BANKFULL. IT
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH TONIGHT. AS FOR THE
WATERWAYS NEAR KETCHIKAN, THEY HAVE ONLY RISEN A FOOT OR SO. THIS IS
MOSTLY BECAUSE THE QUARTER OF AN INCH AN HOUR RAINFALL IS NOT EVEN
CLOSE TO THE 1 YEAR RECURRENCE INTERVAL FOR HOURLY RAINFALL FOR THE
AREA. AS SUCH, WHILE CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS WILL RISE, NO FLOODING
ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND THE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
RAIN RATES WILL ONLY HELP THE SITUATION.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-022-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042-052.

&&

$$

EAL/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU




000
FXAK67 PAJK 290142 CCA
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
351 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...RATHER WET, GRAY DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TODAY AS A
990 MB LOW NEAR 56N 140W SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SE. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND CONTINUES TO
PUMP A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN INTO THAT AREA. KETCHIKAN AND ANNETTE
HAVE BEEN SEEING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN EVERY HOUR SINCE
AROUND 6 AM WITH HIGHER RAINFALL RATES SEEN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
PW RETRIEVALS ALONG THIS FRONT ARE ONLY REACHING 1.1 INCHES WHICH
IS AROUND 130 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN GUSTY ALONG
THIS FRONT AS WELL. A STRONG WIND HEADLINE REMAINS UP FOR ZONE 28
AS KETCHIKAN AND ANNETTE HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH ALL DAY.
A GALE WARNING ALSO REMAINS UP FOR CLARENCE STRAIT THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

ELSEWHERE RAINFALL RATES LIGHTEN UP CONSIDERABLY ONCE YOU GET TO
THE OUTER COAST OR NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND YAKUTAT HAS ENDED UP
WITH A DRY DAY AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AIDING THAT
DRYING TREND IS NORTHERLY OUTFLOW THAT IS CURRENTLY BLOWING
THROUGH THE VARIOUS INTERIOR PASSES OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. A
WEAK BUT COOL SURFACE HIGH HAS INFILTRATED THE SOUTHERN YUKON AND
INCREASED NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE ST. ELIAS RANGE.
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL IS CURRENTLY BLOWING GALE FORCE WITH CROSS
SOUND SEEING SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND THE PASSES EAST OF YAKUTAT ARE
ALSO SEEING GUSTY WINDS.

INTO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW THE LOW IN THE GULF AND THE FRONT WILL
EXPERIENCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. THOUGH WITH THE FRONT
STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THE RAIN AND WIND THERE WILL
NOT QUIT ANYTIME SOON JUST GRADUALLY DIMINISH. FARTHER NORTH, A
FRONTAL RAIN BAND IS HEADING NORTHWEST ALONG THE PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING AND WILL BEING MORE RAIN TO MOST AREAS. HOWEVER IT WILL
BE WEAKENING AS IT GOES AND WILL ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN BY THE
TIME IT GETS TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. YAKUTAT WILL ALSO GET IN
ON THIS BAND BUT WITH IT FIGHTING THE OUTFLOW NOT MUCH RAIN IS
EXPECTED OUT OF IT ONCE IT GETS THAT FAR WEST AND NORTH. ALSO OF
CONSIDERATION IS THE COLD TROUGH OVER THE GULF LOW. THIS HAS BEEN
SPARKING OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF THE LOW CENTER IN
THE GULF ALL DAY. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES INTO
TOMORROW IN THE GULF AND MAY GET ONSHORE AROUND BARANOF ISLAND
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO
MOVE EAST. AS SUCH HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THESE AREAS.

AS FOR THE OUTFLOW WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, THE INTERIOR
ALASKA HIGH WILL BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SO
WINDS SHOULD START TO CALM DOWN TONIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TOMORROW SO WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA TOMORROW.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
USED HI-RES NAM FOR MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY WHICH HELPED IN FINE
TUNING THE FRONTAL WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND THE OUTFLOW
WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL LONG-WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA TO ABOUT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS ALTERING TO A LOWER
AMPLITUDE TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A 140 KT JET MAXIMA. IT
WILL HELP MOVE THE SYSTEM QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. I SUSPECT THE BEST
RAINFALL TOTALS AND WIND FEATURES WILL IMPACT BRITISH COLUMBIA MORE
SO THAN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE LOOKS TO BE 1 TO 2 INCHES WHICH WILL RAISE STREAMS BACK UP
BUT SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY FLOODING ISSUES. HOWEVER, A SLIGHTLY
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE SYSTEM COULD BRING THE HEAVIER RAINS
NORTH OF THE DIXON ENTRANCE REGION.

A THIRD SHORT WAVE HEADED SOUTHEAST WILL STEER THE UPPER LOW THAT
HAD BEEN OVER THE ALASKAN INTERIOR INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA
FOR MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA WILL
THEN START BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
DIMINISHING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY FROM THE
NORTH TO SOUTH PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK.

DID WORK ON SOME MORE MODIFICATION OF THE TEMPERATURES WITH THE
DRIER/LESS CLOUDY WEATHER...BUT OVERALL ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MOST
MID RANGE ITEMS.

USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN
STARTED TO TRANSITION OVER THE HPC GUIDANCE AND HAVE GOOD TO
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE OF THE RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS
CREATING SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS AT THE MOMENT. STANEY CREEK NEAR
KLAWOCK ROSE 5 FEET THIS MORNING, BUT WITH ALL THE HEAVIER RAIN NOW
TO ITS EAST, THE CREEK IS CRESTING AROUND 2 FEET BELOW BANKFULL. IT
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH TONIGHT. AS FOR THE
WATERWAYS NEAR KETCHIKAN, THEY HAVE ONLY RISEN A FOOT OR SO. THIS IS
MOSTLY BECAUSE THE QUARTER OF AN INCH AN HOUR RAINFALL IS NOT EVEN
CLOSE TO THE 1 YEAR RECURRENCE INTERVAL FOR HOURLY RAINFALL FOR THE
AREA. AS SUCH, WHILE CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS WILL RISE, NO FLOODING
ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND THE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
RAIN RATES WILL ONLY HELP THE SITUATION.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-022-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042-052.

&&

$$

EAL/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU





000
FXAK67 PAJK 282351
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
351 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...RATHER WET, GRAY DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TODAY AS A
990 MB LOW NEAR 56N 140W SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SE. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND CONTINUES TO
PUMP A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN INTO THAT AREA. KETCHIKAN AND ANNETTE
HAVE BEEN SEEING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN EVERY HOUR SINCE
AROUND 6 AM WITH HIGHER RAINFALL RATES SEEN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
PW RETRIEVALS ALONG THIS FRONT ARE ONLY REACHING 1.1 INCHES WHICH
IS AROUND 130 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN GUSTY ALONG
THIS FRONT AS WELL. A STRONG WIND HEADLINE REMAINS UP FOR ZONE 28
AS KETCHIKAN AND ANNETTE HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH ALL DAY.
A GALE WARNING ALSO REMAINS UP FOR CLARENCE STRAIT THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

ELSEWHERE RAINFALL RATES LIGHTEN UP CONSIDERABLY ONCE YOU GET TO
THE OUTER COAST OR NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND YAKUTAT HAS ENDED UP
WITH A DRY DAY AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AIDING THAT
DRYING TREND IS NORTHERLY OUTFLOW THAT IS CURRENTLY BLOWING
THROUGH THE VARIOUS INTERIOR PASSES OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. A
WEAK BUT COOL SURFACE HIGH HAS INFILTRATED THE SOUTHERN YUKON AND
INCREASED NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE ST. ELIAS RANGE.
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL IS CURRENTLY BLOWING GALE FORCE WITH CROSS
SOUND SEEING SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND THE PASSES EAST OF YAKUTAT ARE
ALSO SEEING GUSTY WINDS.

INTO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW THE LOW IN THE GULF AND THE FRONT WILL
EXPERIENCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. THOUGH WITH THE FRONT
STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THE RAIN AND WIND THERE WILL
NOT QUIT ANYTIME SOON JUST GRADUALLY DIMINISH. FARTHER NORTH, A
FRONTAL RAIN BAND IS HEADING NORTHWEST ALONG THE PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING AND WILL BEING MORE RAIN TO MOST AREAS. HOWEVER IT WILL
BE WEAKENING AS IT GOES AND WILL ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN BY THE
TIME IT GETS TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. YAKUTAT WILL ALSO GET IN
ON THIS BAND BUT WITH IT FIGHTING THE OUTFLOW NOT MUCH RAIN IS
EXPECTED OUT OF IT ONCE IT GETS THAT FAR WEST AND NORTH. ALSO OF
CONSIDERATION IS THE COLD TROUGH OVER THE GULF LOW. THIS HAS BEEN
SPARKING OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF THE LOW CENTER IN
THE GULF ALL DAY. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES INTO
TOMORROW IN THE GULF AND MAY GET ONSHORE AROUND BARANOF ISLAND
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO
MOVE EAST. AS SUCH HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THESE AREAS.

AS FOR THE OUTFLOW WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, THE INTERIOR
ALASKA HIGH WILL BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SO
WINDS SHOULD START TO CALM DOWN TONIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TOMORROW SO WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA TOMORROW.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
USED HI-RES NAM FOR MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY WHICH HELPED IN FINE
TUNING THE FRONTAL WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND THE OUTFLOW
WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL LONG-WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA TO ABOUT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ALTERING TO A
LESS AMPLITUDE TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ONE SHORT WAVE LIFTS
THE SOUTHERN END INLAND. A SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON NOW HAS A SHORTER TRAJECTORY FOR THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE 140 KT JET WITH THIS WAVE. IT WILL HELP
MOVE THE SYSTEM QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AND BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. I SUSPECT THE BEST RAINFALL
TOTALS AND WIND FEATURES TO IMPACT BRITISH COLUMBIA BETTER THAN
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
LOOKS TO BE 1 TO 2 INCHES WHICH WILL RAISE STREAMS BACK UP BUT
SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY FLOODING ISSUES...HOWEVER A SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTHERN TRACK OF THE SYSTEM COULD BRING THE BETTER RAINS NORTH OF
THE DIXON ENTRANCE REGION.

A THIRD SHORT WAVE HEADED SOUTHEAST WILL ESCORT THE UPPER LOW THAT
HAD BEEN OVER THE ALASKAN INTERIOR INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
ALASKA FOR MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF
ALASKA WILL THEN START BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MID
WEEK. THE DIMINISHING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY
FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK.

DID WORK ON SOME MORE MODIFICATION OF THE TEMPERATURES WITH THE
DRIER/LESS CLOUDY WEATHER...BUT OVERALL ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MOST
MID RANGE ITEMS.

USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN
STARTED TO TRANSITION OVER THE HPC GUIDANCE AND HAVE GOOD TO
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...ALL THE RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS NOT
CREATING MANY HYDRO CONCERNS AT THE MOMENT. STANEY CREEK NEAR
KLAWOCK JUMPED A GOOD 5 FEET THIS MORNING, BUT WITH ALL THE
HEAVIER RAIN NOW TO ITS EAST THE CREEK IS CRESTING AROUND 2 FEET
BELOW BANKFULL STAGE. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS FOR THE WATERWAYS NEAR KETCHIKAN THEY HAVE ONLY RISEN
A FOOT OR SO. THIS IS MOSTLY BECAUSE THE QUARTER OF AN INCH AN
HOUR RAINFALL IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE 1 YEAR RECURRENCE INTERVAL
FOR HOURLY RAINFALL FOR THE AREA. AS SUCH WHILE CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS
WILL RISE, THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY FLOODING ISSUES AT
THIS TIME AND THE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING RAIN RATES WILL ONLY HELP
THE SITUATION.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-022-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042-052.

&&

$$

EAL/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU





000
FXAK67 PAJK 282351
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
351 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...RATHER WET, GRAY DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TODAY AS A
990 MB LOW NEAR 56N 140W SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SE. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND CONTINUES TO
PUMP A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN INTO THAT AREA. KETCHIKAN AND ANNETTE
HAVE BEEN SEEING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN EVERY HOUR SINCE
AROUND 6 AM WITH HIGHER RAINFALL RATES SEEN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
PW RETRIEVALS ALONG THIS FRONT ARE ONLY REACHING 1.1 INCHES WHICH
IS AROUND 130 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN GUSTY ALONG
THIS FRONT AS WELL. A STRONG WIND HEADLINE REMAINS UP FOR ZONE 28
AS KETCHIKAN AND ANNETTE HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH ALL DAY.
A GALE WARNING ALSO REMAINS UP FOR CLARENCE STRAIT THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

ELSEWHERE RAINFALL RATES LIGHTEN UP CONSIDERABLY ONCE YOU GET TO
THE OUTER COAST OR NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND YAKUTAT HAS ENDED UP
WITH A DRY DAY AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AIDING THAT
DRYING TREND IS NORTHERLY OUTFLOW THAT IS CURRENTLY BLOWING
THROUGH THE VARIOUS INTERIOR PASSES OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. A
WEAK BUT COOL SURFACE HIGH HAS INFILTRATED THE SOUTHERN YUKON AND
INCREASED NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE ST. ELIAS RANGE.
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL IS CURRENTLY BLOWING GALE FORCE WITH CROSS
SOUND SEEING SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND THE PASSES EAST OF YAKUTAT ARE
ALSO SEEING GUSTY WINDS.

INTO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW THE LOW IN THE GULF AND THE FRONT WILL
EXPERIENCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. THOUGH WITH THE FRONT
STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THE RAIN AND WIND THERE WILL
NOT QUIT ANYTIME SOON JUST GRADUALLY DIMINISH. FARTHER NORTH, A
FRONTAL RAIN BAND IS HEADING NORTHWEST ALONG THE PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING AND WILL BEING MORE RAIN TO MOST AREAS. HOWEVER IT WILL
BE WEAKENING AS IT GOES AND WILL ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN BY THE
TIME IT GETS TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. YAKUTAT WILL ALSO GET IN
ON THIS BAND BUT WITH IT FIGHTING THE OUTFLOW NOT MUCH RAIN IS
EXPECTED OUT OF IT ONCE IT GETS THAT FAR WEST AND NORTH. ALSO OF
CONSIDERATION IS THE COLD TROUGH OVER THE GULF LOW. THIS HAS BEEN
SPARKING OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF THE LOW CENTER IN
THE GULF ALL DAY. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES INTO
TOMORROW IN THE GULF AND MAY GET ONSHORE AROUND BARANOF ISLAND
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO
MOVE EAST. AS SUCH HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THESE AREAS.

AS FOR THE OUTFLOW WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, THE INTERIOR
ALASKA HIGH WILL BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SO
WINDS SHOULD START TO CALM DOWN TONIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TOMORROW SO WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA TOMORROW.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
USED HI-RES NAM FOR MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY WHICH HELPED IN FINE
TUNING THE FRONTAL WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND THE OUTFLOW
WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL LONG-WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA TO ABOUT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ALTERING TO A
LESS AMPLITUDE TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ONE SHORT WAVE LIFTS
THE SOUTHERN END INLAND. A SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON NOW HAS A SHORTER TRAJECTORY FOR THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE 140 KT JET WITH THIS WAVE. IT WILL HELP
MOVE THE SYSTEM QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AND BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. I SUSPECT THE BEST RAINFALL
TOTALS AND WIND FEATURES TO IMPACT BRITISH COLUMBIA BETTER THAN
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
LOOKS TO BE 1 TO 2 INCHES WHICH WILL RAISE STREAMS BACK UP BUT
SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY FLOODING ISSUES...HOWEVER A SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTHERN TRACK OF THE SYSTEM COULD BRING THE BETTER RAINS NORTH OF
THE DIXON ENTRANCE REGION.

A THIRD SHORT WAVE HEADED SOUTHEAST WILL ESCORT THE UPPER LOW THAT
HAD BEEN OVER THE ALASKAN INTERIOR INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
ALASKA FOR MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF
ALASKA WILL THEN START BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MID
WEEK. THE DIMINISHING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY
FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK.

DID WORK ON SOME MORE MODIFICATION OF THE TEMPERATURES WITH THE
DRIER/LESS CLOUDY WEATHER...BUT OVERALL ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MOST
MID RANGE ITEMS.

USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN
STARTED TO TRANSITION OVER THE HPC GUIDANCE AND HAVE GOOD TO
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...ALL THE RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS NOT
CREATING MANY HYDRO CONCERNS AT THE MOMENT. STANEY CREEK NEAR
KLAWOCK JUMPED A GOOD 5 FEET THIS MORNING, BUT WITH ALL THE
HEAVIER RAIN NOW TO ITS EAST THE CREEK IS CRESTING AROUND 2 FEET
BELOW BANKFULL STAGE. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS FOR THE WATERWAYS NEAR KETCHIKAN THEY HAVE ONLY RISEN
A FOOT OR SO. THIS IS MOSTLY BECAUSE THE QUARTER OF AN INCH AN
HOUR RAINFALL IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE 1 YEAR RECURRENCE INTERVAL
FOR HOURLY RAINFALL FOR THE AREA. AS SUCH WHILE CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS
WILL RISE, THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY FLOODING ISSUES AT
THIS TIME AND THE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING RAIN RATES WILL ONLY HELP
THE SITUATION.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-022-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042-052.

&&

$$

EAL/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU




000
FXAK67 PAJK 282351
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
351 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...RATHER WET, GRAY DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TODAY AS A
990 MB LOW NEAR 56N 140W SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SE. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND CONTINUES TO
PUMP A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN INTO THAT AREA. KETCHIKAN AND ANNETTE
HAVE BEEN SEEING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN EVERY HOUR SINCE
AROUND 6 AM WITH HIGHER RAINFALL RATES SEEN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
PW RETRIEVALS ALONG THIS FRONT ARE ONLY REACHING 1.1 INCHES WHICH
IS AROUND 130 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN GUSTY ALONG
THIS FRONT AS WELL. A STRONG WIND HEADLINE REMAINS UP FOR ZONE 28
AS KETCHIKAN AND ANNETTE HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH ALL DAY.
A GALE WARNING ALSO REMAINS UP FOR CLARENCE STRAIT THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

ELSEWHERE RAINFALL RATES LIGHTEN UP CONSIDERABLY ONCE YOU GET TO
THE OUTER COAST OR NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND YAKUTAT HAS ENDED UP
WITH A DRY DAY AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AIDING THAT
DRYING TREND IS NORTHERLY OUTFLOW THAT IS CURRENTLY BLOWING
THROUGH THE VARIOUS INTERIOR PASSES OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. A
WEAK BUT COOL SURFACE HIGH HAS INFILTRATED THE SOUTHERN YUKON AND
INCREASED NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE ST. ELIAS RANGE.
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL IS CURRENTLY BLOWING GALE FORCE WITH CROSS
SOUND SEEING SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND THE PASSES EAST OF YAKUTAT ARE
ALSO SEEING GUSTY WINDS.

INTO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW THE LOW IN THE GULF AND THE FRONT WILL
EXPERIENCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. THOUGH WITH THE FRONT
STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THE RAIN AND WIND THERE WILL
NOT QUIT ANYTIME SOON JUST GRADUALLY DIMINISH. FARTHER NORTH, A
FRONTAL RAIN BAND IS HEADING NORTHWEST ALONG THE PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING AND WILL BEING MORE RAIN TO MOST AREAS. HOWEVER IT WILL
BE WEAKENING AS IT GOES AND WILL ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN BY THE
TIME IT GETS TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. YAKUTAT WILL ALSO GET IN
ON THIS BAND BUT WITH IT FIGHTING THE OUTFLOW NOT MUCH RAIN IS
EXPECTED OUT OF IT ONCE IT GETS THAT FAR WEST AND NORTH. ALSO OF
CONSIDERATION IS THE COLD TROUGH OVER THE GULF LOW. THIS HAS BEEN
SPARKING OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF THE LOW CENTER IN
THE GULF ALL DAY. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES INTO
TOMORROW IN THE GULF AND MAY GET ONSHORE AROUND BARANOF ISLAND
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO
MOVE EAST. AS SUCH HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THESE AREAS.

AS FOR THE OUTFLOW WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, THE INTERIOR
ALASKA HIGH WILL BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SO
WINDS SHOULD START TO CALM DOWN TONIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TOMORROW SO WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA TOMORROW.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
USED HI-RES NAM FOR MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY WHICH HELPED IN FINE
TUNING THE FRONTAL WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND THE OUTFLOW
WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL LONG-WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA TO ABOUT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ALTERING TO A
LESS AMPLITUDE TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ONE SHORT WAVE LIFTS
THE SOUTHERN END INLAND. A SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON NOW HAS A SHORTER TRAJECTORY FOR THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE 140 KT JET WITH THIS WAVE. IT WILL HELP
MOVE THE SYSTEM QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AND BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. I SUSPECT THE BEST RAINFALL
TOTALS AND WIND FEATURES TO IMPACT BRITISH COLUMBIA BETTER THAN
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
LOOKS TO BE 1 TO 2 INCHES WHICH WILL RAISE STREAMS BACK UP BUT
SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY FLOODING ISSUES...HOWEVER A SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTHERN TRACK OF THE SYSTEM COULD BRING THE BETTER RAINS NORTH OF
THE DIXON ENTRANCE REGION.

A THIRD SHORT WAVE HEADED SOUTHEAST WILL ESCORT THE UPPER LOW THAT
HAD BEEN OVER THE ALASKAN INTERIOR INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
ALASKA FOR MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF
ALASKA WILL THEN START BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MID
WEEK. THE DIMINISHING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY
FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK.

DID WORK ON SOME MORE MODIFICATION OF THE TEMPERATURES WITH THE
DRIER/LESS CLOUDY WEATHER...BUT OVERALL ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MOST
MID RANGE ITEMS.

USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN
STARTED TO TRANSITION OVER THE HPC GUIDANCE AND HAVE GOOD TO
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...ALL THE RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS NOT
CREATING MANY HYDRO CONCERNS AT THE MOMENT. STANEY CREEK NEAR
KLAWOCK JUMPED A GOOD 5 FEET THIS MORNING, BUT WITH ALL THE
HEAVIER RAIN NOW TO ITS EAST THE CREEK IS CRESTING AROUND 2 FEET
BELOW BANKFULL STAGE. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS FOR THE WATERWAYS NEAR KETCHIKAN THEY HAVE ONLY RISEN
A FOOT OR SO. THIS IS MOSTLY BECAUSE THE QUARTER OF AN INCH AN
HOUR RAINFALL IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE 1 YEAR RECURRENCE INTERVAL
FOR HOURLY RAINFALL FOR THE AREA. AS SUCH WHILE CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS
WILL RISE, THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY FLOODING ISSUES AT
THIS TIME AND THE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING RAIN RATES WILL ONLY HELP
THE SITUATION.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-022-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042-052.

&&

$$

EAL/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU





000
FXAK67 PAJK 282351
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
351 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...RATHER WET, GRAY DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TODAY AS A
990 MB LOW NEAR 56N 140W SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SE. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND CONTINUES TO
PUMP A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN INTO THAT AREA. KETCHIKAN AND ANNETTE
HAVE BEEN SEEING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN EVERY HOUR SINCE
AROUND 6 AM WITH HIGHER RAINFALL RATES SEEN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
PW RETRIEVALS ALONG THIS FRONT ARE ONLY REACHING 1.1 INCHES WHICH
IS AROUND 130 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN GUSTY ALONG
THIS FRONT AS WELL. A STRONG WIND HEADLINE REMAINS UP FOR ZONE 28
AS KETCHIKAN AND ANNETTE HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH ALL DAY.
A GALE WARNING ALSO REMAINS UP FOR CLARENCE STRAIT THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

ELSEWHERE RAINFALL RATES LIGHTEN UP CONSIDERABLY ONCE YOU GET TO
THE OUTER COAST OR NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND YAKUTAT HAS ENDED UP
WITH A DRY DAY AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AIDING THAT
DRYING TREND IS NORTHERLY OUTFLOW THAT IS CURRENTLY BLOWING
THROUGH THE VARIOUS INTERIOR PASSES OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. A
WEAK BUT COOL SURFACE HIGH HAS INFILTRATED THE SOUTHERN YUKON AND
INCREASED NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE ST. ELIAS RANGE.
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL IS CURRENTLY BLOWING GALE FORCE WITH CROSS
SOUND SEEING SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND THE PASSES EAST OF YAKUTAT ARE
ALSO SEEING GUSTY WINDS.

INTO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW THE LOW IN THE GULF AND THE FRONT WILL
EXPERIENCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. THOUGH WITH THE FRONT
STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THE RAIN AND WIND THERE WILL
NOT QUIT ANYTIME SOON JUST GRADUALLY DIMINISH. FARTHER NORTH, A
FRONTAL RAIN BAND IS HEADING NORTHWEST ALONG THE PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING AND WILL BEING MORE RAIN TO MOST AREAS. HOWEVER IT WILL
BE WEAKENING AS IT GOES AND WILL ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN BY THE
TIME IT GETS TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. YAKUTAT WILL ALSO GET IN
ON THIS BAND BUT WITH IT FIGHTING THE OUTFLOW NOT MUCH RAIN IS
EXPECTED OUT OF IT ONCE IT GETS THAT FAR WEST AND NORTH. ALSO OF
CONSIDERATION IS THE COLD TROUGH OVER THE GULF LOW. THIS HAS BEEN
SPARKING OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF THE LOW CENTER IN
THE GULF ALL DAY. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES INTO
TOMORROW IN THE GULF AND MAY GET ONSHORE AROUND BARANOF ISLAND
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO
MOVE EAST. AS SUCH HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THESE AREAS.

AS FOR THE OUTFLOW WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, THE INTERIOR
ALASKA HIGH WILL BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SO
WINDS SHOULD START TO CALM DOWN TONIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TOMORROW SO WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA TOMORROW.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
USED HI-RES NAM FOR MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY WHICH HELPED IN FINE
TUNING THE FRONTAL WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND THE OUTFLOW
WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL LONG-WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA TO ABOUT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ALTERING TO A
LESS AMPLITUDE TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ONE SHORT WAVE LIFTS
THE SOUTHERN END INLAND. A SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON NOW HAS A SHORTER TRAJECTORY FOR THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE 140 KT JET WITH THIS WAVE. IT WILL HELP
MOVE THE SYSTEM QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AND BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. I SUSPECT THE BEST RAINFALL
TOTALS AND WIND FEATURES TO IMPACT BRITISH COLUMBIA BETTER THAN
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
LOOKS TO BE 1 TO 2 INCHES WHICH WILL RAISE STREAMS BACK UP BUT
SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY FLOODING ISSUES...HOWEVER A SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTHERN TRACK OF THE SYSTEM COULD BRING THE BETTER RAINS NORTH OF
THE DIXON ENTRANCE REGION.

A THIRD SHORT WAVE HEADED SOUTHEAST WILL ESCORT THE UPPER LOW THAT
HAD BEEN OVER THE ALASKAN INTERIOR INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
ALASKA FOR MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF
ALASKA WILL THEN START BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MID
WEEK. THE DIMINISHING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY
FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK.

DID WORK ON SOME MORE MODIFICATION OF THE TEMPERATURES WITH THE
DRIER/LESS CLOUDY WEATHER...BUT OVERALL ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MOST
MID RANGE ITEMS.

USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN
STARTED TO TRANSITION OVER THE HPC GUIDANCE AND HAVE GOOD TO
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...ALL THE RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS NOT
CREATING MANY HYDRO CONCERNS AT THE MOMENT. STANEY CREEK NEAR
KLAWOCK JUMPED A GOOD 5 FEET THIS MORNING, BUT WITH ALL THE
HEAVIER RAIN NOW TO ITS EAST THE CREEK IS CRESTING AROUND 2 FEET
BELOW BANKFULL STAGE. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS FOR THE WATERWAYS NEAR KETCHIKAN THEY HAVE ONLY RISEN
A FOOT OR SO. THIS IS MOSTLY BECAUSE THE QUARTER OF AN INCH AN
HOUR RAINFALL IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE 1 YEAR RECURRENCE INTERVAL
FOR HOURLY RAINFALL FOR THE AREA. AS SUCH WHILE CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS
WILL RISE, THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY FLOODING ISSUES AT
THIS TIME AND THE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING RAIN RATES WILL ONLY HELP
THE SITUATION.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-022-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042-052.

&&

$$

EAL/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities