Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXAK67 PAJK 010005
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
405 PM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE EXTENDING FORM THE CIRCULATION IN THE AK GULF OFF CAPE
FAIRWEATHER PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE SHOWERS. CLEAR
BREAKS AND COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY IN
THE DAY TRANSITIONED TO ADVANCING SHOWERS FROM THE SHORT WAVE.
SHOWERS ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST PRODUCED ICE PELLETS IN THE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A REPORT OF A WATER SPOUT NEAR MIDDLE
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE WAVE MOVES OVERLAND AND INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA TONIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF. THE NEXT ADVANCING
FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE AK GULF WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
OVERLAND WITH 850 MB WINDS IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. SURFACE WINDS
OVER THE AK GULF WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH GALES DEVELOPING OVER THE INNER CHANNELS LATE
TONIGHT. SO ANY BREAKS IN WINDS OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL BE FAIRLY
SHORT LIVED. AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND SUSTAINED WINDS WILL DROP
OFF THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING HIGHER GUSTS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL TRANSITIONED
THE SHOWERS TO MORE STEADY RAIN FALL AND MAY KEEP THE HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT FROM MIXING DOWN AND THUS KEEP THE INNER CHANNEL WINDS
LOWER. BLENDED TPW SATELLITE SHOWING CURRENT MOISTURE FEED INTO
THE FRONT OF 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES WITH FORECAST SIX HOUR QPF AROUND
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. THUS EXPECTING SOME MODERATE RAIN BUT NO
EXCEPTIONALLY HEAVY PRECIP. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE WITH THE
ADVANCING FRONT BUT FOR NOW MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEPING THEM AT OR
BELOW 3000 FT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE
HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS. THE HAINES HIGHWAY WILL START OUT AS
SNOW LATE TONIGHT THEN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN THROUGH THE SATURDAY AS
WARM AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY WILL STAY SNOW
LONGER AND THUS HAVE ISSUES A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON OF 3 TO 5
INCHES. THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX WITH RAIN EVEN NEAR WHITE
PASS WITH THE WARM AIR ALONG THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR
ALOFT IS MOVING IN AND RAIN WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SHOWERS OVER
THE AK GULF THROUGH SATURDAY. THE INSTABILITY WITH CAPE AROUND 300
J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX OF -1 TO -2 C IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADDING
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM OVER THE OFFSHORE WATER TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

MODEL WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES WITH SOME
OF THE COARSE MODELS BUT TOO BROAD BRUSH ON POPS. REFRESHED GRIDS
WITH 12Z NAM BUT CHANGES WERE VERY SMALL OVERALL. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...A TRIPLE POINT LOW CURRENTLY FORMING NEAR KODIAK WILL
HAVE BEGUN TO WEAKEN NEAR THE KENAI BY THE START OF THE EXTENDED
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME, A PAIR OF FAIRLY STRONG
SHORT WAVES WILL HAVE ROTATED AROUND THE BASE OF THE PARENT LOW
LOCATED OVER BRISTOL BAY AND BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
THESE TWO SHORT WAVES WILL REINFORCE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. NET RESULT IS
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WELL TO THE WEST AND SOUTH, A LOW IS FORMING ON THE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR 40N AND 170W. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT GAINS STRENGTH. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT RANGING FROM THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE TO SOUTH OF HECATE
STRAIT. GEM IS RUNNING THE DEEPEST AND FARTHEST NORTH WHILE NAM IS
THE WEAKEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH. TRACK AND INTENSITY HAVE A VERY
LARGE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL. CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATING UPWARDS OF 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND A
SOLID TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION. CURRENT FORECAST MOST IN LINE
WITH THE NAM DEPICTION WHICH REPRESENTS THE SOUTHERLY OUTLIER AND KEEPS
THE BULK OF THE RAIN SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE. SITUATION WILL HAVE TO
BE CLOSELY WATCHED FOR CHANGES IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW OVER THE
NEXT 3 DAYS.

USED A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS FOR PRESSURE AND WIND EARLY ON,
FOLLOWED BY A NAM/GEM BLEND. WPC TUESDAY AND ONWARD. POP AND QPF
ADJUSTED USING CURRENT ECMWF AND GEM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM AKDT
     SATURDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031>035-053.

&&

$$

PRB/FRITSCH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU










000
FXAK67 PAJK 311325
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
525 AM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...SEVERAL UPPER VORT LOBES ARE FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE BERING SEA DURING THE NEXT 24
HRS...WHILE A LEAD IMPULSE MOVES E ACROSS THE GULF. AS THIS TAKES
PLACE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN INVOF BRISTOL
BAY...AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE
GULF FRI NIGHT BEFORE ENTERING THE PANHANDLE SAT MORNING. IN THE
MEANTIME...A WEAK TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE ERN GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS OVER SERN AK AS IT PROGRESSES INTO WRN
B.C. BY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF COLD AIR
ALOFT...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND WEAK CAPE...THE LACK OF
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND RELATIVELY COOL WATER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PRECLUDE OFFSHORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA OCCURRING INVOF THE APPROACHING GULF
FRONT WILL THEN YIELD MODERATE STRATIFORM RAINFALL OVER THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ENHANCED LEE TROUGHING/PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER LYNN
CANAL DUE TO 30 KT MIDLEVEL SWLYS SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS. OVER
THE OUTSIDE WATERS...50 KT SELY LLJ WILL MATERIALIZE BY TONIGHT
AND AID IN GALE FORCE WINDS BY 09Z SAT. SLY LLJ WILL THEN SPREAD
INLAND BY 12Z SAT...YIELDING GALE FORCE WINDS FOR CLARENCE
STRAIT...AND HIGH END SMALL CRAFT SPEEDS OVER STEPHENS PASSAGE.
ENELY GAP WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN TO GALE OVER CROSS SOUND AS WELL.
ATTM...LOW-LEVEL STABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE ENOUGH AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT TO PRECLUDE STRONG WINDS FOR COASTAL
LAND AREAS AS WELL AS KETCHIKAN...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE RE-
EVALUATED DURING THE DAY SHIFT. IN ADDITION...WINDS MAY BECOME
GUSTY LATE TONIGHT FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND S DOUGLAS AS LLJ
SPREADS NWD INTO THE AREA.

BLENDED 00Z NAM/ECMWF WITH INHERITED PRESSURE GRIDS IN ORDER TO ADD
RESOLUTION TO THE FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA TONIGHT. POP GRIDS
WERE REFRESHED WITH GFS/ECMWF BLEND...AND HI-RES ARW/NMM WERE
COMBINED WITH COARSER RES GUIDANCE FOR QPF. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...CUTOFF LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WESTERLY JET OF 135 KT
AT 300 MB AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SPANNING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL SUPPORT A HARDY SHORTWAVE AS IT RACES EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF
ALASKA SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT-TERM
WILL PUSH INTO THE PANHANDLE SATURDAY MORNING AND WEAKEN, BUT
SLOWLY. THE SHORTWAVE PUSHING THE FRONT WILL LEAD A MODIFIED COLD
AIR MASS INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA LATE IN THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO BEGIN CHANGING THE RAIN TO
SHOWERS OVER THE PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION,
UNDERNEATH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT PASSES THROUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER EASTERN GULF WATERS. JUDGING BY PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA SATURDAY, WINDS OVER THE
PANHANDLE SHOULD BEGIN EASING AS THE FRONT SLIDES INLAND. HOWEVER,
GIVEN SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY MORNING AND THE
INDICATED LOW LEVEL JET PERSISTING, BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL STILL
BE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR INSIDE PASSAGES IN THE
LEAST.

SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN WAVE ACTIVITY BEYOND SATURDAY AS MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING TO IDENTIFY FEATURES ROTATING AROUND THE BRISTOL
BAY LOW. THE POSITION OF THE LOW THOUGH ENSURES MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. DEPENDING ON TIMING OF WAVE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL FEATURES,
WIND FORECASTS ARE VERY GENERAL DURING THIS PERIOD, AND MAY BE
NUDGED UP IN THE FUTURE AS WAVE RESOLUTION IMPROVES.

WELL TO OUR WEST THIS WEEKEND A STRONGER WAVE OVER KAMCHATKA LOOKS
LIKELY TO UNDERCUT A WESTERN BERING SEA RIDGE AND PUSH THE BRISTOL
BAY LOW INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SUBTLE SHIFT OF POSITION WILL CAUSE ROTATING SHORTWAVES TO SPAWN
LOWS/FRONTS SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE INSTEAD OF OVER THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY ALLOW THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO
EXPERIENCE A BRIEF BREAK POSSIBLY MONDAY, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS STILL
HIGH AND WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH OFFSHORE COMPONENT THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS. HOWEVER, THIS POTENTIAL BREAK
WILL BE EVER SO BRIEF AS THE FLOW PUSH THE FEATURE NORTHWARD
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL RECEIVE NO SUCH
REPRIEVE. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING OVER THE WESTERN
GULF...RAIN AND PERIODS OF WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FIXTURE OVER
THE FORECAST.

FINALLY...SNOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO WHITE PASS DURING
THE NEXT WEEK. SOME SIGNS THAT SOME COLDER AIR MAY SLIDE SOUTH
BY TUESDAY AS GRADIENTS TURN NORTHERLY, BUT WITH OVERALL MIDLEVEL
FLOW VERY SOUTHERLY, THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN GREAT ENOUGH TO KEEP
SNOW MOSTLY OUT OF THE FORECAST AT SEA LEVEL.

INCREASED WINDS SATURDAY WITH HELP FROM NAM/ECWMF. MADE FEW
CHANGES BEYOND AS GENERAL FORECAST BASED OFF ECMWF AND WPC HOLDS
FAIRLY SOLID. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY FOR
OVERALL WET PATTERN.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-031>035.

&&

$$

GARNER/ADKINS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU










000
FXAK67 PAJK 302345
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
345 PM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN AK GULF WITH A SECONDARY
CIRCULATION OVER HAIDA GWAII. THE NORTHERN AK GULF LOW PRODUCED
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING SMALL CRAFT WINDS
OVER PKZ51 AND 52. THIS LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN IT EVENTUALLY WEAKENS TO AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH.
WINDS AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING. THE HAIDA GWAII LOW WAS TRICKY TO FORECAST AS MANY MODELS
WERE NOT SHOWING THIS FEATURE AND WERE IN CONSENSUS THAT THE LOW
WOULD SHOW LITTLE DEVELOPMENT WITH REMNANTS MOVING EASTWARD INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. IN REALITY THE LOW DROPPED DOWN TO 992 MB
PRODUCING SOME 20 KT WINDS OVER PKZ41, 25 KT OVER CLARENCE STRAIT
AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS OVER ZONE 28. NOW EXPECT THE
LOW TO MOVE ALONG AN NORTHEAST TRACK INCREASING WINDS OVER ZONE 26
THIS EVENING THEN MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE DROPPING OFF RAPIDLY BECOMING CALM AS THE LOW MOVES OVERLAND
THEN WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND PICK BACK UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW.

AS BOTH LOWS TRACK IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS THE CURRENT FRONTAL
BAND OVER THE PANHANDLE THAT IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO SPLIT. SOUTHERN PANHANDLE PRECIP WILL DIMINISH AND
CHANGE TO SHOWERS BIT FASTER THAN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS
WHICH WILL HAVE A SECONDARY WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN GULF LOW
TONIGHT. COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL HAVE THE ENTIRE REGION UNDER A
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT BY FRIDAY. WHILE THIS COOLER AIR MASS IS
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE AK GULF AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE COAST WITH CAPE IN AROUND 300 J/KG AND LIFTED
INDEX NEAR -1C NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THE
EXCEPTION AGAIN IS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SOME COLD POOLS
NORTHWEST OF HAINES. FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON A FRONT EXTENDING FROM A
LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AK GULF.
THIS FRONT WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE REGION IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

MODELS HAD SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GULF BUT A GENERAL MODEL BLEND STAYED IN LINE WITH THE
INHERITED GRIDS. MORE SPREAD WITH THE LOW TO THE SOUTH WITH BETTER
INITIALIZATION WITH THE ECMWF/NAM, BUT ALL MODEL MISSED THE ACTUAL FEATURE.
OVERALL LEFT GRIDS TO THE NORTH AS IS WITH NUDGE TO THE 12Z
NAM/ECMWF FOR WINDS OVER THE AK GULF AND MANUAL EDITING OF WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST BEGINS WITH A TRIPLE POINT
LOW FORMING JUST EAST OF KODIAK ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. TRIPLE LOW ITSELF DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE IT WILL LAST LONG, AS WHAT LITTLE UPPER LEVEL JET
SUPPORT IT INITIALLY HAS WILL PULL AWAY TO THE SOUTH. THE LOW
ROTATES BACK TO THE WEST EVENTUALLY BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE
MUCH LARGER PARENT CIRCULATION WHICH, BY SUNDAY NIGHT, WILL
FEATURE MULTIPLE MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND SHORT WAVES.

THE FRONT THAT EXTENDS EAST FROM THE TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT SOUTHEAST ALASKA SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS TRANSITION BACK
TO STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION. EXCELLENT AGREEMENT TODAY BETWEEN
GFS, NAM, AND ECMWF ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND ITS MOVEMENT
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH MODERATE RAIN BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES.
A POST FRONTAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THEN MOVES IN SATURDAY EVENING,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON SUNDAY EVENING.

HAVE A NARROW BAND OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF IN
ADVANCE OF THE SATURDAY FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT, IF
THERE ARE STRONG WINDS, IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OUTER COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER SEVERAL OF THE INNER CHANNELS
WITH A 40 KT GALE BEING FORECAST FOR CLARENCE STRAIT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY AND OVERNIGHT. A
LOW THAT WILL FORM WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WILL RIDE UP ALONG
THE EXISTING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ARRIVE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
GULF LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL MARINE
ZONES AND INNER CHANNELS WILL PICK UP TO 30 KTS OR SO IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS LOW
RETROGRADING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT OCCLUDES ALONG THE OUTER
COAST AND WEAKENS RAPIDLY ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM AGREEMENT BETTER TODAY AND THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO
CHANGES TO PRESSURE OR WIND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. UPDATED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ECMWF. WPC THEREAFTER. UPDATES TO POP AND
QPF YIELDED LITTLE TO NO CHANGE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE UPGRADED TO AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042.

&&

$$

PRB/FRITSCH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU











000
FXAK67 PAJK 301303
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
503 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...SHARP TROUGH ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WHILE AT LOW LEVELS THE SCENARIO IS SOMEWHAT MORE COMPLEX AS USUAL.
RELAXING GRADIENTS TODAY THE WAKE OF THE EASTERN GULF LOW WILL LIKELY
RESTRICT SCAS TO OFFSHORE WATERS AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE
AT LOW LEVELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHWEST WHICH WILL
SEE SOME LOCALIZED WINDS. THE LIGHTING ACTIVITY TONIGHT HAS BEEN
RESTRICTED TO SOUTH OF HAIDA GWAII BUT MODELS POSE THREAT TO THE
CENTRAL OFFSHORE AREAS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AND ALSO THE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
CHICHAGOF AND BARANOF ISLANDS. THE MAIN CURRENT LOW...995ISH MB
WEST OF SITKA...DRIFTS NORTH AND WEST WHILE MAINTAINING ITS
STRENGTH. ALONG WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET TRAILING OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PANHANDLE A MODERATE RAIN SCENARIO IS
LIKELY TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL REGIONS THROUGHOUT. THIS
LATTER TROUGH IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT THAT IS WHERE
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER WITH THE NAM BEING THE OUTLIER BOTH IN
PRECIP AND WIND...THE TRAILING TROUGH IS STRONGER ON THAT MODEL
AND INCLUDES A SECONDARY LOW...LEADS TO MODERATE PRECIP OVER THE
NORTH FOR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND WIND INCREASES. WE AREN`T BUYING
THAT AS THE EC/GEM/GFS MODELS AGREE TO SIMPLY MAINTAIN THE TROUGH
AND PREDICT A SLOW NWWD DRIFT OF THE NORTHERN LOW WHILE INCREASING
ONSHORE MOIST FLOW INTO THE PANHANDLE IN THE 09-15Z PERIOD
FRIDAY...WITH NO SECONDARY LOW FORMATION. THUS WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
BE SUB-SCA LEVEL THROUGH MUCH OF THE INTERIOR CHANNELS AFTER WINDS
WEAKEN RAPIDLY TODAY. THEN AFTER ABOUT 06Z THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
INCREASE FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO
INCREASE SOUTH OF THE MAIN LOW AND ALSO IN RESPONSE TO A WNW UPPER
JET ENTERING THE CENTRAL GULF LATE. THIS PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE AS
UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EVIDENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF EARLY
FRI. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A WET FRIDAY FOR MOST
AREAS WITH POSSIBLE SCA WINDS FOR NORTH/CENTRAL CHANNELS. FOR GRIDS WENT
WITH A BLENDED EC/GEM/GFS APPROACH ON PRESSURE WIND AND PRECIP
FIELDS. THIS INCLUDES PRECIP PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER MOST OF
THEN NORTH BUT ABATING OVER THE SOUTH LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN RAIN AT LOW LEVELS OVER ALL
BUT THE NORTHERN FRINGES AND HYDER...WHERE A MIXED SCENARIO IS
LIKELY. MODEL CONFIDENCE...USING THE ENSEMBLES MENTIONED...IS
AVERAGE FOR THE SHORT-TERM.

.LONG TERM...THE FIRST IN A LONG SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS SERN AK DURING FRI. RESIDUAL
POCKET OF COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT
SHOWERS...WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO STRATIFORM OVER THE GULF AS
WARMER MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES SPREAD EWD. THIS WARMER AIRMASS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE...WHICH WILL
ADVANCE ENE ACROSS THE GULF FRI AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE ONSHORE
SAT MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE PROBABLE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RATES POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN
PANHANDLE WHERE STRONGEST MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE PRESENT.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN...A 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL SELY JET IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS FEATURE
WILL RESIDE OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS FRI NIGHT...FAVORING GALE
FORCE WINDS. THE LLJ THEN MOVES ONSHORE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...AIDING IN GALE FORCE WINDS FOR CLARENCE STRAIT...AND
POSSIBLE STRONG GUSTY WINDS FOR LAND ZONES 23 /SITKA/...27
/HYDABURG/...AND 28 /KETCHIKAN/. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR MUDSLIDES.

UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE WRN/CNTRL GULF THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED IMPULSES EJECTING ENEWD
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...THE MOST VIGOROUS OF WHICH WILL POTENTIALLY
SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SERN GULF ON MON. IF THIS SCENARIO
DOES INDEED UNFOLD...THEN WINDS OVER THE SRN INSIDE WATERS WILL
REINTENSIFY TO SMALL CRAFT/GALE...AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN LAND AREAS.
HOWEVER...MODEL SPREAD IS LARGE FOR THE MON TIME PERIOD...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH REGARDING WIND AND HEAVY PRECIP POTENTIAL.

IN GENERAL...MODELS SHOW MUCH IMPROVED CONSENSUS IN THE LARGE-
SCALE DETAILS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS GIVES
CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER
OVER SERN AK DUE TO NUMEROUS UPPER WAVES PASSING ACROSS THE
REGION. NO CHANGE WAS MADE TO PRESSURE GRIDS THROUGH 00Z MON.
THEREAFTER...BLENDED IN THE LATEST ECMWF...WHICH RESULTED IN A
DEAMPLIFICATION OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SERN GULF SUN NIGHT INTO
MON. POP/QPF GRIDS WERE REFRESHED WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-035-036-042-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-052.

&&

$$

WESLEY/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU








000
FXAK67 PAJK 292351
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
351 PM AKDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...BIG CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM NEAR HAIDA GWAII THIS EVENING THAT WILL DEEPEN
TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD ALONG THE PANHANDLE
COAST. THE REASON FOR THIS CHANGE IS MODELS HAVE BEEN IN SUCH POOR
AGREEMENT AND SHOWING LARGE SHIFTS RUN TO RUN THAT MADE NAILING
DOWN A SOLUTION UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING DIFFICULT AT BEST. THE
12Z MODEL RUNS FINALLY LINED UP BETTER BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM
WITH THE NAM AS THE OUTLIER.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING A 995 MB LOW
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AK GULF WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONT MOVING OVER THE AK PANHANDLE. NOT MUCH FORCING AT UPPER
LEVELS WITH THE CURRENT FRONT WITH AN ELONGATED 500 MB VORT MAX.
RESULT HAS BEEN OVERCAST SKIES WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE DAY. COLD POOL OF AIR STILL ALONG HAINES HIGHWAY
CORRIDOR SO SAW SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH RAIN THIS MORNING, BUT NO
ACCUMULATION AT LOW LEVELS. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE WITH PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GULF LOW AND WESTERN CANADIAN HIGH. WEAK
NORTHERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ALONG THE TILTED PRESSURE
FIELDS.

TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AT 500 MB
WITH A WAVE FORMING AT 850 MB AND THE MODEL SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALL FALLING LINE SUPPORTING THE GALE FORCE LOW DEVELOPMENT.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE NEAR HAIDA GWAII IS JUST STARTING TO SHOW ON
SATELLITE AND WILL DEEPEN TO 996 MB LATE THIS EVENING AS IT HUGS
THE COAST. SINCE THE LOW WILL MOVE RAPIDLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
THEN DROP OFF JUST AS RAPIDLY. LOW LEVEL 850 MB SOUTHEASTERLY JET OF 50
KT OVER THE COAST WILL PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING.
EXPECTING GALES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS AND WESTERN INNER
CHANNELS. THIS EVENING WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS ELSEWHERE. STRONG
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE PANHANDLE COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 27 THEN 23, BUT DROP OFF LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD THE NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE WITH GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL

PRECIPITATION FROM THE CURRENT WEAK FRONT HAS BEEN DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE PANHANDLE BUT STILL HUGS THE COAST. NEXT BAND
ALONG THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE EVENING
SOUTH TO NORTH. NOT SEEING A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FEED IN THE THE
CURRENT LOW BUT STILL SOME CONNECTION IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOWN
TO 40 N. HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE WITH 6 HOUR QPF
VALUES IN THE UPWARDS OF ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH HEAVIEST
BANDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. SURFACE TEMPS STILL UNCERTAIN SINCE THE
LOW IS PULLING UP 850 MB TEMPS ABOVE 0 C TONIGHT BUT 500 MB TEMPS
IN THE -32 TO 36 C RANGE MOVE UP AS WELL. OVERALL NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN LOWS FROM PREVIOUS NIGHT, EXPECT FOR SOME SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPS OVER THE NORTHERN REGIONS. THUS NOT EXPECTING SNOW AT
THE SURFACE BUT 1 TO 2 INCHES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ALL MODELS HAD SHIFTED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS SO THE OPTION WAS TO
LEAVE INHERITED FORECAST AS IS OR HAVE A MAJOR CHANGE. SINCE THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM FINALLY FELL MORE IN LINE WITH STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE LOW WENT WITH THE BIG UPDATE. USED A 50/25/25
BLEND GFS/ECMWF/GEM FOR NEXT 24 HOURS, COUNTED NAM AS AN OUTLIER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY.

.LONG TERM...CONFIDENCE IMPROVES A BIT EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE VERY POORLY MODELED LOW IN THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WEAKENS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OR POSSIBLY GETS
ABSORBED BY A VERY LARGE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. NAM, GFS, AND GEM CURRENTLY EXHIBITING GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS LOW...ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND INTO
THE WESTERN GULF SATURDAY MORNING. ECMWF IS MUCH FARTHER TO THE
WEST WITH THE PARENT LOW, BUT DOES SPIN UP A TRIPLE POINT FEATURE
IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION AS THE OTHER THREE, OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF BETWEEN THE KENAI AND SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING. WELL ORGANIZED
FRONT EMANATING FROM THE TRIPLE POINT EAST WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST
ALASKA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH POST FRONTAL SHORT WAVE
ACTIVITY KEEPING SHOWERS OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
VERY COLD AIR ALOFT AND PLENTY OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY TO WORK
WITH, SO SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS THIS FRONT FADES AND THE LOW WEAKENS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF,
A DEVELOPING WAVE ON THE OLD COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH
THE PANHANDLE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING RIDING ALONG A 65KT UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION. VERY STRONG AND WELL DEVELOPED FRONTAL SIGNATURE. FAIR
AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS, ECMWF, AND WPC ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
WITH GEM KEEPING THE LOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND SENDING INTO
SOUTHWESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOOKING
STRONG ENOUGH THAT IT MAY MAKE IT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND THE
EXPERIENCE SOME SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA.

USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS, GEM, AND ECMWF FOR PRESSURE AND WIND THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN TRANSITIONED TO WPC. POP AND QPF FROM GEM AND
ECMWF, ALSO THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NO CHANGES BEYOND THEN.
OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO RECENT POOR
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM AKDT THURSDAY FOR
     AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR AKZ023.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-022-033-036-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-031-032-034-035-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

$$

PRB/FRITSCH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU












000
FXAK67 PAJK 291236
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
436 AM AKDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...SOME MINOR FOG CURRENTLY IN THE KETCHIKAN AND
KLAWOCK AREAS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A WORSENING OR SPREADING
SCENARIO AT THE MOMENT DUE TO EXTENSIVE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. NEW
MODERATELY STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO WESTERN GULF CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AND MOVE SSE AS IT IS NOT SYNCHRONIZED WITH
UPPER FORCING AT THE MOMENT...HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
WELL OFFSHORE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW AND
CONTINUED THIS AS AN ISOLATED THREAT THROUGH TODAY OFFSHORE AS WEAK
POTENTIAL IS INDICATED ON MODELS. BANDS OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS ARE
INVADING THE PANHANDLE ACCOMPANIED BY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. OTHER
THAN THAT A GENERALLY UNSEASONABLY QUIET DAY ANTICIPATED FOR THE
PANHANDLE TODAY. BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON A FRONT AND
ELONGATED LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AND MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY STRENGTHENS THIS LOW AND MOVES IT
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF BY THURSDAY MORNING. IT IS ENHANCED BY
SSE- ORIENTED MID-LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA BEGINNING AT ABOUT 00Z
THURS. FOR A CHANGE ECMWF SOLUTION IS THE OUTLIER WITH TOO WEAK A
LOW...OTHERWISE THE OTHER MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON INCREASE IN
WINDS TO SCA IN SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL AS NORTHERN LYNN AND MOST OTHER CHANNELS BY THURS MORNING
AS THIS SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS. GFS SEEMED TO BE THE MODEL OF
CHOICE AND IT PRODUCES A HALF INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PANHANDLE BY MIDDAY THURS. WITH THE NAM AT 0.25 TO 0.5
INCH. ENOUGH SCATTER IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...FOR EXAMPLE SIGNIFICANT
RUN-RUN VARIATIONS IN THE GFS MODEL...TO STILL NOT HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN HOW STRONG THIS L WILL ACTUALLY BECOME. SOME THREAT
OF STRONG WINDS FOR SOUTHERN PUBLIC ZONES BUT AT THIS POINT THAT
SCENARIO IS NOT LIKELY AS MODELS KEPT WINDS BELOW 40 KT. WE`VE
SEEN THIS SCENARIO BEFORE WITH PROBLEMS ARISING WITH A SMALL-SCALE
SPINUP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF BUT THE POTENTIAL SEEMS REMOTE
FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER SCENARIO THAN FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
THE UPPER TROUGH HAS MORE ENERGY ON ITS BACK SIDE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN GULF TONIGHT THAN THE EAST SIDE AND THIS WILL
CERTAINLY LESSEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG SPINUP. BOTTOM
LINE...UTILIZED A BLENDED APPROACH WITH SREF/GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS FOR
THIS PERIODS UPDATES WHICH WERE NOT SIGNIFICANT UNTIL ABOUT 06Z
THURS AND GENERALLY FORECASTED A RUN-OF-THE-MILL PRECIP AND EVENT
FOR THE AREA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR THIS SHORTTERM
PERIOD HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
WITH SHORTWAVE DETAILS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD /15Z
THU/. LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITIONED FROM THE INTERIOR OF AK SEWD
INTO THE NERN PAC WILL BE PROBABLE. UNCERTAINTY EMERGES WITH
INDIVIDUAL UPPER IMPULSES PROGRESSING NWD ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH. SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE REGION THU AFTERNOON AND SPIN UP LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE...WITH A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE
NRN GULF INVOF A MAXIMUM IN MIDLEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY.
HOWEVER...MODELS VARY WITH THE TIMING/STRENGTH/OVERALL EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER VORT LOBE MOVING INTO THE ERN GULF AND PANHANDLE THU...WHICH
SUBSEQUENTLY YIELDS THE LARGE SPREAD IN MSLP. ATTM...DID NOT LEAN
TOWARD ANY PARTICULAR MODEL SOLUTION AND LEFT INHERITED PRESSURE
GRIDS AS IS...WHICH FEATURES A LOW MOVING NNW UP THE COAST OF SERN
AK THU AFTERNOON...AND THEN INTO THE NRN GULF THU NIGHT. THIS
SOLUTION CLOSELY RESEMBLES 21Z SREF GUIDANCE.

WITH THIS SCENARIO...SMALL CRAFT SLYS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER
CLARENCE STRAIT THU...AND 25-30 KT NLYS ARE EXPECTED IN LYNN
CANAL...BOTH OF WHICH WILL DISSIPATE BY FRI MORNING. IN
ADDITION...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PW VALUES WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE IN ADVANCE OF THE LONG WAVE UPPER
TROUGH...FAVORING RAIN THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH RATES BEING
ENHANCED BY EMBEDDED IMPULSES...THAT AS PREVIOUSLY ALLUDED
TO...ARE OF A LOW CONFIDENCE NATURE ATTM. NUMEROUS UPPER WAVES ARE
FORECAST TO EJECT ACROSS THE GULF AND PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL SUPPORT AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER.

00Z ECMWF/GFS WERE BLENDED IN WITH PREVIOUS PRESSURE GRIDS
BEGINNING 18Z SUN THROUGH 00Z WED...MAINLY IN ORDER TO SMOOTH OUT
A LOW PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE GULF EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH IS NOT SUPPORTED BY LATEST GUIDANCE. POP FIELDS WERE
LEFT UNCHANGED...BUT QPF WAS UPDATED IN ORDER TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TOTALS MORE IN LINE WITH HIGHEST POP VALUES AND
LATEST MODEL TRENDS. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE FOR
THE MOST PART. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-031>036-041>043-051-052.

&&

$$

WESLEY/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU









    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities