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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 291922
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
522 AM CHST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TYPHOON MAYSAK CONTINUES TO HEAD WESTWARD AWAY FROM CHUUK. THICK
CIRRUS CANOPY SPREADS NORTHWARD FROM MAYSAK OVER THE MARIANAS.
HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SHOWER COVERAGE IS CONFINED CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF MAYSAK...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST ZONES.
TROUGHING ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF MAYSAK IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE LATITUDE OF
GUAM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST FORECAST ISSUANCE CLOSELY FOLLOWS CONTINUITY. STILL EXPECT
TROUGHING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF MAYSAK TO AFFECT THE FORECAST ZONES
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS MAYSAK MOVES FARTHER WEST...QUIETER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIFFER ON WHEN/IF ANOTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN MICRONESIA. EVEN IF A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS...IT WOULD NOT
AFFECT THE FORECAST ZONES UNTIL AFTER DAY 7.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST READINGS FROM THE IPAN BUOY VERIFY COMBINED SEAS BETWEEN 9
AND 10 FEET. STILL BELIEVE SEAS WILL PEAK TODAY AND TONIGHT
BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET...PRIMARILY DUE TO WIND WAVES ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF MAYSAK. WAVE WATCH TABULAR OUTPUT APPEARS TO BE PRODUCING
SWELL HEIGHTS THAT ARE WAY TOO HIGH FOR GUAM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINE SWELL CALCULATION FROM THE LATEST
SCATTEROMETRY GIVES SWELL FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST OF ONLY 5 FEET
OR SO...WELL BELOW THE HEIGHT NECESSARY TO PRODUCE HIGH SURF.
ACCORDINGLY...WILL ADHERE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST...WHICH
ANTICIPATES SMALL CRAFT BUT NOT HIGH SURF CONDITIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT OR SO. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ADVISORY CONDITIONS AGAIN
BEFORE THE END OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A DISTURBANCE OVER THE MARSHALLS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS JUST TO THE EAST OF MAJURO THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL
MOVE WESTWARD AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER MAJURO LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS BAND OF CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AS MAYSAK
MOVES TOWARD YAP STATE. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO
KOSRAE TONIGHT AND WILL HELP MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
POHNPEI THROUGH TUESDAY. MAJURO WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER
CONDITIONS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE TREND OF THE DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING INTO A MORE ORGANIZED
CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. CHOSE TO MAINTAIN CURRENT
FORECAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FOR NOW...BUT IF THE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS AS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING...SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY OVER BOTH MAJURO AND KOSRAE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

BUILDING TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS FOR MAJURO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK...TYPHOON MAYSAK CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECASTS
OVER WESTERN MICRONESIA. MAYSAK IS NOW FARTHER WEST OF CHUUK...
ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO CALM DOWN QUITE A BIT IN THE VICINITY
OF WENO. AS MAYSAK CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD YAP
STATE...IT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OTHER ISLANDS IN WESTERN CHUUK
AND EASTERN YAP STATES. AS THE TYPHOON MOVES EVEN FARTHER
WEST...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE IN CHUUK STATE.
HOWEVER...THE DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA IS LIKELY TO
AFFECT CHUUK BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND DEPENDING ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE CHUUK FORECAST.

YAP AND KOROR...A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND.
TYPHOON MAYSAK WILL BE MOVING WESTWARD INTO EASTERN YAP STATE
THIS MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS MAINTAINS A TRACK DIRECTLY TOWARD
THE YAP AREA BY TUESDAY. EXACT WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR YAP AND
KOROR WILL DEPEND ON THE PRECISE TRACK OF MAYSAK...BUT DAMAGING
WINDS ARE LIKELY FOR YAP WITHIN THE TIME FRAME OF TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MAYSAK WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY.
MEANWHILE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER
FAR WESTERN MICRONESIA.

AS TYPHOON MAYSAK DRAWS CLOSER TO YAP...SEAS ARE LIKELY TO
INCREASE TO LEVELS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT AT BOTH YAP AND KOROR
ALONG WITH HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AT BOTH LOCATIONS. SMALL
CRAFT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR KOROR. YAP WILL
EXPERIENCE A MORE ROBUST WEATHER EVENT...PROBABLY REQUIRING A
TROPICAL STORM OR TYPHOON WARNING.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST WEDNESDAY
                  FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

ZIOBRO/KLEESCHULTE/MCELROY





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 290636
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
436 PM CHST SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ALMOST NO SHOWERS IN THE MARIANAS WATERS. THE
VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OF 12 TO 25 KNOTS
THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MARIANAS ARE WITHIN THE SUBSIDENT MOTE AROUND DISTANT TYPHOON
MAYSAK TONIGHT. THE OUTERMOST RAINBAND ON THE NORTH SIDE WILL
APPROACH THE MARIANAS MONDAY NIGHT...AND COULD CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THIS...THE MARIANAS WILL FALL BACK INTO A DRY
SEASON TRADE-WIND REGIME. THERE IS ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS WHICH THE GFS40 IS TRYING TO DEVELOP INTO ANOTHER
TROPICAL CYCLONE. IF THE ECMWF-HIRES JUMPS ON THE BANDWAGON...
WILL HAVE TO GIVE IT MORE CREDENCE AT THAT TIME. IT IS STILL AT
LEAST A WEEK AWAY NO MATTER WHAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS NORTH OF TYPHOON MAYSAK WILL CONTINUE
TO GENERATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. THE IPAN BUOY
SHOWS WAVES ARE INCREASING AND ARE NOW AT 8 TO 10 FEET. THEY SHOULD
REACH 10 TO 12 FEET MONDAY...THEN START DIMINISHING TUESDAY.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
TYPHOON MAYSAK WENT OVER CHUUK LAGOON THIS MORNING...AND WILL SOON
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS. MAYSAK IS EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE
TO YAP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAYSAK HAS
SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 70 KNOTS NOW AND IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY FURTHER. MAYSAK COULD BECOME A MAJOR TYPHOON MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE AND ASCAT WIND ANALYSIS SHOW A DISTURBANCE WITH A LARGE
AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS.
LINGERING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TYPHOON MAYSAK CONTINUE TO TRAIN
ACROSS POHNPEI STATE...BUT MAYSAK IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AWAY
FROM CHUUK AND WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY
ACROSS POHNPEI STATE. JUST PATCHY CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN
ACROSS KOSRAE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE
OVER THE RMI WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AND COULD FURTHER DEVELOP
INTO A CIRCULATION DURING THE COMING DAYS. GFS MODEL INDICATES A
PATTERN OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO PERSIST
ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA MAINLY ALONG ABOUT 5N FOR MOST OF THIS
WEEK.

BUILDING TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS FOR MAJURO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. TYPHOON MAYSAK IS MOVING
SLOWLY WESTWARD AWAY FROM CHUUK AND WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL VERY
SLOWLY IMPROVE. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS LIKELY CAUSED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE
FOR CHUUK STATE. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE WEATHER SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID-
WEEK...BUT THE DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA TODAY COULD MOVE
TO THE CHUUK AREA BY FRIDAY AND FORECASTS FOR LATER THIS WEEK WILL
BE SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.


YAP AND KOROR...A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND.
TYPHOON MAYSAK IS MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM CHUUK THIS EVENING AND
MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES IT WILL TRACK DIRECTLY TOWARD THE YAP AREA
BY TUESDAY. EXACT WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR YAP AND KOROR WILL DEPEND
ON THE PRECISE TRACK OF MAYSAK...BUT DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY FOR
YAP WITHIN THE TIME FRAME OF TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNEDAY. MAYSAK WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY. MEANWHILE...MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY OVER FAR WESTERN
MICRONESIA.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR YAP AND KOROR...BUT
SURF WILL LIKELY BUILD TO DANGEROUS LEVELS...ESPECIALLY AT YAP...
WITH THE APPROACH OF TYPHOON MAYSAK MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST TUESDAY
                  FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

STANKO/WILLIAMS/SIMPSON





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 290636
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
436 PM CHST SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ALMOST NO SHOWERS IN THE MARIANAS WATERS. THE
VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OF 12 TO 25 KNOTS
THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MARIANAS ARE WITHIN THE SUBSIDENT MOTE AROUND DISTANT TYPHOON
MAYSAK TONIGHT. THE OUTERMOST RAINBAND ON THE NORTH SIDE WILL
APPROACH THE MARIANAS MONDAY NIGHT...AND COULD CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THIS...THE MARIANAS WILL FALL BACK INTO A DRY
SEASON TRADE-WIND REGIME. THERE IS ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS WHICH THE GFS40 IS TRYING TO DEVELOP INTO ANOTHER
TROPICAL CYCLONE. IF THE ECMWF-HIRES JUMPS ON THE BANDWAGON...
WILL HAVE TO GIVE IT MORE CREDENCE AT THAT TIME. IT IS STILL AT
LEAST A WEEK AWAY NO MATTER WHAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS NORTH OF TYPHOON MAYSAK WILL CONTINUE
TO GENERATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. THE IPAN BUOY
SHOWS WAVES ARE INCREASING AND ARE NOW AT 8 TO 10 FEET. THEY SHOULD
REACH 10 TO 12 FEET MONDAY...THEN START DIMINISHING TUESDAY.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
TYPHOON MAYSAK WENT OVER CHUUK LAGOON THIS MORNING...AND WILL SOON
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS. MAYSAK IS EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE
TO YAP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAYSAK HAS
SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 70 KNOTS NOW AND IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY FURTHER. MAYSAK COULD BECOME A MAJOR TYPHOON MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE AND ASCAT WIND ANALYSIS SHOW A DISTURBANCE WITH A LARGE
AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS.
LINGERING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TYPHOON MAYSAK CONTINUE TO TRAIN
ACROSS POHNPEI STATE...BUT MAYSAK IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AWAY
FROM CHUUK AND WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY
ACROSS POHNPEI STATE. JUST PATCHY CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN
ACROSS KOSRAE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE
OVER THE RMI WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AND COULD FURTHER DEVELOP
INTO A CIRCULATION DURING THE COMING DAYS. GFS MODEL INDICATES A
PATTERN OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO PERSIST
ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA MAINLY ALONG ABOUT 5N FOR MOST OF THIS
WEEK.

BUILDING TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS FOR MAJURO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. TYPHOON MAYSAK IS MOVING
SLOWLY WESTWARD AWAY FROM CHUUK AND WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL VERY
SLOWLY IMPROVE. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS LIKELY CAUSED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE
FOR CHUUK STATE. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE WEATHER SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID-
WEEK...BUT THE DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA TODAY COULD MOVE
TO THE CHUUK AREA BY FRIDAY AND FORECASTS FOR LATER THIS WEEK WILL
BE SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.


YAP AND KOROR...A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND.
TYPHOON MAYSAK IS MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM CHUUK THIS EVENING AND
MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES IT WILL TRACK DIRECTLY TOWARD THE YAP AREA
BY TUESDAY. EXACT WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR YAP AND KOROR WILL DEPEND
ON THE PRECISE TRACK OF MAYSAK...BUT DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY FOR
YAP WITHIN THE TIME FRAME OF TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNEDAY. MAYSAK WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY. MEANWHILE...MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY OVER FAR WESTERN
MICRONESIA.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR YAP AND KOROR...BUT
SURF WILL LIKELY BUILD TO DANGEROUS LEVELS...ESPECIALLY AT YAP...
WITH THE APPROACH OF TYPHOON MAYSAK MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST TUESDAY
                  FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

STANKO/WILLIAMS/SIMPSON





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 282039
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
639 AM CHST SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DIFFUSE SHEAR LINE IS KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
MARIANAS...BUT RADAR SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
GUAM AND ROTA WATERS. THE IPAN BUOY IS REPORTING SEAS BETWEEN
6 AND 7 FEET. THE RADAR IS INDICATING WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AT
2000 TO 3000 FT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD BE FRESH TO
STRONG THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS TYPHOON MAYSAK PASSES WELL SOUTH
OF THE MARIANAS. IT APPEARS FROM MODEL GUIDANCE THAT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT...AND ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
HAVE LEFT WINDS FRESH TO STRONG THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH AS TYPHOON MAYSAK MOVES
AWAY. SEAS MAY GET A LITTLE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AROUND
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON MAYSAK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVERGING SOUTHEAST WINDS FEEDING TOWARD TYPHOON MAYSAK WILL
KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR POHNPEI TODAY. BY THIS EVENING...A
SURFACE RIDGE ALREADY OVER KOSRAE WILL BUILD WESTWARD AND USHER IN
DRIER CONDITIONS. A ROBUST TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THRU
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS THRU TONIGHT. EXPECT PERIODIC HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE NEAR MAJURO UNTIL MONDAY.
THIS SAME DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO REACH KOSRAE BY MONDAY
EVENING...AND POHNPEI ON TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK...MUCH DRIER TRADE
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE SHOULD PROMOTE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
NEAR MAJURO AND POHNPEI. FOR KOSRAE...A TRADE CONVERGENCE ZONE
NEAR 4N ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS SURGE MIGHT BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SOME SHOWERS THRU MIDWEEK.

A TRADE-WIND SURGE HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
THESE SURGING TRADES WILL GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY WESTWARD ACROSS
THE DATE LINE INTO EASTERN MICRONESIA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. IN
RESPONSE...TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL ARE GOING TO BUILD ACROSS
KOSRAE AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS STARTING MONDAY EVENING. NEED TO
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGH SURF AND HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR SMALL CRAFT.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
TYPHOON MAYSAK IS ABOUT TO HIT CHUUK LAGOON IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THRU NOON TODAY THEN DECREASING TO
TROPICAL STORM WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MAYSAK SLOWLY PULLS
AWAY. HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING SHOULD
DECREASE TO NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. HAZARDOUS SEAS AND DANGEROUS SURF WILL CONTINUE
THRU THE DAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
AFTERWARD...SPORADIC CONVECTION WILL LINGER AROUND THE LAGOON
THRU MONDAY IN CONVERGING SOUTHEAST WINDS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING WESTWARD FROM EASTERN MICRONESIA SHOULD
PROVIDE IMPROVEMENT. WET WEATHER MIGHT RETURN NEAR MIDWEEK AS A
TRADE DISTURBANCE FROM THE EAST ARRIVES.

THE COMBINATION OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND A SHEAR LINE WILL CONTINUE
TO TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR YAP UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING.
THESE FEATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT WEST OF YAP AND OVER KOROR
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AS STRENGTHENING TYPHOON MAYSAK DEPARTS
CHUUK STATE AND TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN YAP STATE ON
MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE WEST OF MAYSAK COULD SUPPORT PLEASANT WEATHER
NEAR YAP. FOR KOROR...MAYSAK WILL LIFT THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH
CURRENTLY NEAR 4N NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE CAPITAL. THIS COULD
GENERATE MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THERE THRU TUESDAY. MAYSAK
WILL LIKELY PLAY A MAJOR ROLE ON THE MID-TERM FORECAST OF BOTH
KOROR AND YAP. THE FUTURE TACK OF TYPHOON MAYSAK WILL DETERMINE
THE DISTRIBUTION OF WINDS AND RAIN AMONG BOTH LOCALES.

LATEST ALTIMETRY AND COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE DATA INDICATE A
DOWNWARD TREND ON THE SEAS AND NORTHEAST SWELL NEAR THE REPUBLIC OF
PALAU AND YAP STATE. THIS WILL ALLOW SURF TO DROP BELOW HAZARDOUS
LEVELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS AND SURF WILL BUILD AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING AS TYPHOON MAYSAK APPROACHES.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST TUESDAY
FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/CHAN





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 282039
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
639 AM CHST SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DIFFUSE SHEAR LINE IS KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
MARIANAS...BUT RADAR SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
GUAM AND ROTA WATERS. THE IPAN BUOY IS REPORTING SEAS BETWEEN
6 AND 7 FEET. THE RADAR IS INDICATING WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AT
2000 TO 3000 FT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD BE FRESH TO
STRONG THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS TYPHOON MAYSAK PASSES WELL SOUTH
OF THE MARIANAS. IT APPEARS FROM MODEL GUIDANCE THAT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT...AND ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
HAVE LEFT WINDS FRESH TO STRONG THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH AS TYPHOON MAYSAK MOVES
AWAY. SEAS MAY GET A LITTLE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AROUND
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON MAYSAK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVERGING SOUTHEAST WINDS FEEDING TOWARD TYPHOON MAYSAK WILL
KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR POHNPEI TODAY. BY THIS EVENING...A
SURFACE RIDGE ALREADY OVER KOSRAE WILL BUILD WESTWARD AND USHER IN
DRIER CONDITIONS. A ROBUST TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THRU
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS THRU TONIGHT. EXPECT PERIODIC HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE NEAR MAJURO UNTIL MONDAY.
THIS SAME DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO REACH KOSRAE BY MONDAY
EVENING...AND POHNPEI ON TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK...MUCH DRIER TRADE
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE SHOULD PROMOTE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
NEAR MAJURO AND POHNPEI. FOR KOSRAE...A TRADE CONVERGENCE ZONE
NEAR 4N ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS SURGE MIGHT BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SOME SHOWERS THRU MIDWEEK.

A TRADE-WIND SURGE HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
THESE SURGING TRADES WILL GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY WESTWARD ACROSS
THE DATE LINE INTO EASTERN MICRONESIA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. IN
RESPONSE...TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL ARE GOING TO BUILD ACROSS
KOSRAE AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS STARTING MONDAY EVENING. NEED TO
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGH SURF AND HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR SMALL CRAFT.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
TYPHOON MAYSAK IS ABOUT TO HIT CHUUK LAGOON IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THRU NOON TODAY THEN DECREASING TO
TROPICAL STORM WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MAYSAK SLOWLY PULLS
AWAY. HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING SHOULD
DECREASE TO NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. HAZARDOUS SEAS AND DANGEROUS SURF WILL CONTINUE
THRU THE DAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
AFTERWARD...SPORADIC CONVECTION WILL LINGER AROUND THE LAGOON
THRU MONDAY IN CONVERGING SOUTHEAST WINDS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING WESTWARD FROM EASTERN MICRONESIA SHOULD
PROVIDE IMPROVEMENT. WET WEATHER MIGHT RETURN NEAR MIDWEEK AS A
TRADE DISTURBANCE FROM THE EAST ARRIVES.

THE COMBINATION OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND A SHEAR LINE WILL CONTINUE
TO TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR YAP UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING.
THESE FEATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT WEST OF YAP AND OVER KOROR
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AS STRENGTHENING TYPHOON MAYSAK DEPARTS
CHUUK STATE AND TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN YAP STATE ON
MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE WEST OF MAYSAK COULD SUPPORT PLEASANT WEATHER
NEAR YAP. FOR KOROR...MAYSAK WILL LIFT THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH
CURRENTLY NEAR 4N NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE CAPITAL. THIS COULD
GENERATE MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THERE THRU TUESDAY. MAYSAK
WILL LIKELY PLAY A MAJOR ROLE ON THE MID-TERM FORECAST OF BOTH
KOROR AND YAP. THE FUTURE TACK OF TYPHOON MAYSAK WILL DETERMINE
THE DISTRIBUTION OF WINDS AND RAIN AMONG BOTH LOCALES.

LATEST ALTIMETRY AND COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE DATA INDICATE A
DOWNWARD TREND ON THE SEAS AND NORTHEAST SWELL NEAR THE REPUBLIC OF
PALAU AND YAP STATE. THIS WILL ALLOW SURF TO DROP BELOW HAZARDOUS
LEVELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS AND SURF WILL BUILD AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING AS TYPHOON MAYSAK APPROACHES.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST TUESDAY
FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/CHAN





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 280759
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
559 PM CHST SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EAST WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. A SHEAR LINE WAS LOCATED NEAR TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED WINDS AT VARIOUS PLACES IN THE FORECAST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND MAYSAK WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO INCREASE SUNDAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND REMAIN ELEVATED
ON MONDAY. MODELS SHOW LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NORTH OF MAYSAK WHICH
WILL CAUSE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARIANAS AT THAT TIME.
ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED STRONGER WINDS ACROSS TINIAN AND SAIPAN
WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHEAR LINE. ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR THIS AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
ALL THE MARIANAS WATERS SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND MAYSAK INCREASES. EXPECT SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR ALL THE MARIANAS WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

WAVE WATCH DATA SHOWERS A SOUTHWEST SWELL ENTERING THE AREA BY
MIDWEEK. SINCE MAYSAK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON IT SHOULD
SEND AT LEAST A FEW SWELL TOWARDS THE MARIANAS. BROUGHT IN A TWO
FOOT SWELL FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUED IT
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MICRONESIA. A
NEAR- EQUATORIAL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM MAYSAK PASSING
JUST SOUTH OF KOSRAE TO END NEAR TARAWA ATOLL. CONVERGING SURFACE
WINDS NEAR THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SPARK OFF CONVECTION NEAR
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THRU TONIGHT. AS MAYSAK AND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
TROUGH DRIFT WESTWARD ON SUNDAY...IT WILL ALLOW A SURFACE RIDGE TO
SHIFT FROM THE MARSHALL ISLANDS TO OVER KOSRAE AND POHNPEI.
THEREFORE EXPECT QUIETER WEATHER FOR BOTH PLACES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS PROGRESSING WESTWARD FROM THE
DATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL ARRIVE AT THE MARSHALL ISLANDS
LATER THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATE INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE NEAR
MAJURO BY MIDNIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF THIS DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY NIGHT...MUCH DRYER NORTHEAST TRADES
SHOULD DOMINATE THE MARSHALLS THRU MIDWEEK. FOR KOSRAE AND
POHNPEI...THIS SAME DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO BRING SHOWERY CONDITIONS
BY TUESDAY.

A TRADE-WIND SURGE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE DATE LINE EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD CAUSE TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL TO BUILD ACROSS
KOSRAE AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGH
SURF AND HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR SMALL CRAFT.


&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSE TO AND NORTH OF
CHUUK. THE CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH WILL BE LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A TYPHOON WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CHUUK AS
MAYSAK INTENSIFIES TO POSSIBLY A TYPHOON LATE TONIGHT. 4 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN ARE PROBABLE BY SUNDAY EVENING. INCREASING WIND
WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH EXISTING TRADE-WIND SWELL TO CAUSE SEAS TO
BUILD ABOVE 12 FEET TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY MORNING AS MAYSAK MOVES
THRU. THINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS MAYSAK DEPARTS THE CHUUK AREA. HOWEVER CONVERGING SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL KEEP PERIODIC SHOWERS AROUND THRU MONDAY BEFORE SURFACE
RIDGING FROM THE EAST FINALLY INTRODUCES FAIRER WEATHER ON
TUESDAY. SHOWERS MIGHT RETURN NEAR MIDWEEK AS A TRADE DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM NEAR POHNPEI.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS COUPLING WITH A SHEAR LINE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER YAP. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH KOROR
SUNDAY MORNING. AS TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK MOVES TOWARD THE REGION ON
MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH DIVERGENT SURFACE WINDS TO THE WEST
OF THE STORM MIGHT PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
KOROR AND YAP. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...STORMY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR YAP FROM MAYSAK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST TUESDAY FOR PMZ153-154.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CHST TUESDAY FOR
     PMZ151-152.

&&

$$

ZIOBRO/DEVITA





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 280759
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
559 PM CHST SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EAST WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. A SHEAR LINE WAS LOCATED NEAR TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED WINDS AT VARIOUS PLACES IN THE FORECAST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND MAYSAK WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO INCREASE SUNDAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND REMAIN ELEVATED
ON MONDAY. MODELS SHOW LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NORTH OF MAYSAK WHICH
WILL CAUSE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARIANAS AT THAT TIME.
ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED STRONGER WINDS ACROSS TINIAN AND SAIPAN
WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHEAR LINE. ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR THIS AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
ALL THE MARIANAS WATERS SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND MAYSAK INCREASES. EXPECT SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR ALL THE MARIANAS WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

WAVE WATCH DATA SHOWERS A SOUTHWEST SWELL ENTERING THE AREA BY
MIDWEEK. SINCE MAYSAK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON IT SHOULD
SEND AT LEAST A FEW SWELL TOWARDS THE MARIANAS. BROUGHT IN A TWO
FOOT SWELL FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUED IT
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MICRONESIA. A
NEAR- EQUATORIAL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM MAYSAK PASSING
JUST SOUTH OF KOSRAE TO END NEAR TARAWA ATOLL. CONVERGING SURFACE
WINDS NEAR THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SPARK OFF CONVECTION NEAR
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THRU TONIGHT. AS MAYSAK AND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
TROUGH DRIFT WESTWARD ON SUNDAY...IT WILL ALLOW A SURFACE RIDGE TO
SHIFT FROM THE MARSHALL ISLANDS TO OVER KOSRAE AND POHNPEI.
THEREFORE EXPECT QUIETER WEATHER FOR BOTH PLACES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS PROGRESSING WESTWARD FROM THE
DATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL ARRIVE AT THE MARSHALL ISLANDS
LATER THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATE INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE NEAR
MAJURO BY MIDNIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF THIS DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY NIGHT...MUCH DRYER NORTHEAST TRADES
SHOULD DOMINATE THE MARSHALLS THRU MIDWEEK. FOR KOSRAE AND
POHNPEI...THIS SAME DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO BRING SHOWERY CONDITIONS
BY TUESDAY.

A TRADE-WIND SURGE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE DATE LINE EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD CAUSE TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL TO BUILD ACROSS
KOSRAE AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGH
SURF AND HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR SMALL CRAFT.


&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSE TO AND NORTH OF
CHUUK. THE CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH WILL BE LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A TYPHOON WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CHUUK AS
MAYSAK INTENSIFIES TO POSSIBLY A TYPHOON LATE TONIGHT. 4 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN ARE PROBABLE BY SUNDAY EVENING. INCREASING WIND
WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH EXISTING TRADE-WIND SWELL TO CAUSE SEAS TO
BUILD ABOVE 12 FEET TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY MORNING AS MAYSAK MOVES
THRU. THINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS MAYSAK DEPARTS THE CHUUK AREA. HOWEVER CONVERGING SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL KEEP PERIODIC SHOWERS AROUND THRU MONDAY BEFORE SURFACE
RIDGING FROM THE EAST FINALLY INTRODUCES FAIRER WEATHER ON
TUESDAY. SHOWERS MIGHT RETURN NEAR MIDWEEK AS A TRADE DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM NEAR POHNPEI.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS COUPLING WITH A SHEAR LINE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER YAP. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH KOROR
SUNDAY MORNING. AS TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK MOVES TOWARD THE REGION ON
MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH DIVERGENT SURFACE WINDS TO THE WEST
OF THE STORM MIGHT PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
KOROR AND YAP. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...STORMY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR YAP FROM MAYSAK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST TUESDAY FOR PMZ153-154.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CHST TUESDAY FOR
     PMZ151-152.

&&

$$

ZIOBRO/DEVITA





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 272207
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
807 AM CHST SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE INDICATED BY RADAR AND SATELLITE OVER THE
MARIANAS WATERS...WITH A SHEAR LINE POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF
SAIPAN. THE IPAN BUOY IS ONLY SHOWING SEAS OF 6-7 FEET. TROPICAL
STORM MAYSAK (04W) IS CENTERED BETWEEN CHUUK AND POHNPEI WITH MAX
WINDS OF 40 MPH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TWEAKED THE WAVE HEIGHT GRIDS TODAY...BUT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE DURING AND FOLLOWING MAYSAK`S PASSAGE WELL SOUTH OF GUAM
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NOW...AS WINDS AND
SEAS HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT FROM YESTERDAY. BUT IT WOULD NOT TAKE
MUCH TO GET AN ADVISORY GOING AGAIN...AND INDEED ANOTHER ONE WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED BY SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL
STORM MAYSAK.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT IN TAKING TS MAYSAK JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH
OF STRAIGHT WEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PASSING WELL SOUTH OF GUAM ON
MONDAY. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS MON-TUE...MAINLY DUE TO
TRAILING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK IS SLOWLY MOVING AWAY FROM POHNPEI THIS
MORNING. A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
MAYSAK PASSING JUST SOUTH OF KOSRAE TO END NEAR TARAWA ATOLL.
CONVERGING SURFACE WINDS NEAR THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SPARK
OFF CONVECTION NEAR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THRU TONIGHT. AS MAYSAK AND
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH DRIFT WESTWARD ON SUNDAY...A SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT FROM THE MARSHALL ISLANDS TO OVER KOSRAE AND
POHNPEI. THEREFORE EXPECT QUIETER WEATHER FOR BOTH PLACES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS PROGRESSING WESTWARD
FROM THE DATE LINE THIS MORNING. IT WILL ARRIVE AT THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS LATER THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATE INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE
NEAR MAJURO BY MIDNIGHT BUT RESIDUAL DRYNESS ABOVE 500MB SHOULD
HINDER THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. BY SUNDAY...MOISTURE
ADVECTED BY UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE MONDAY
NIGHT...MUCH DRIER NORTHEAST TRADES SHOULD DOMINATE THE MARSHALLS
THRU MIDWEEK. FOR KOSRAE AND POHNPEI...THIS SAME DISTURBANCE WILL
ALSO BRING SHOWERY CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY.

A TRADE-WIND SURGE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE DATE LINE EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD CAUSE TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL TO BUILD ACROSS
KOSRAE AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGH
SURF AND HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR SMALL CRAFT.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK IS NEAR 7N156E...ABOUT 275 MILES EAST OF WENO
ISLAND IN CHUUK STATE THIS MORNING. LATEST ENHANCED IR SATELLITE
LOOP SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE CENTER OF MAYSAK. THIS IS AN INDICATION THAT MAYSAK IS
OVERCOMING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AT THE UPPER LEVELS. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...MAYSAK WILL INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES CHUUK TODAY.
DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF MAYSAK...ITS EXACT TRACK WILL DETERMINE
HOW MUCH WIND AND RAIN CHUUK WILL EXPERIENCE DURING ITS PASSAGE
TONIGHT. WITH A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY OVER IWO TO
ISLAND...MAYSAK MIGHT TAKE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK PASSING VERY
CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN WATERS OF CHUUK EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR
NOW...HAVE MENTIONED WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND HEAVY
RAIN FOR CHUUK THIS EVENING THRU SUNDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE
LATEST DEEP CONVECTION FLARING UP THIS MORNING...3 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN ARE PROBABLE BY SUNDAY EVENING. INCREASING WIND WAVES WILL
COMBINE WITH EXISTING TRADE-WIND SWELL TO CAUSE SEAS OF 7 TO 9
FEET THIS MORNING TO RISE AND REACH 8 TO 10 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
SEAS WILL BUILD ABOVE 12 FEET TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY MORNING AS
MAYSAK MOVES THRU. THINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MAYSAK DEPARTS. HOWEVER CONVERGING
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP PERIODIC SHOWERS AROUND THRU MONDAY
BEFORE SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE EAST FINALLY BRINGS FAIRER
WEATHER ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS MIGHT RETURN NEAR MIDWEEK AS A TRADE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM NEAR POHNPEI.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS COUPLING WITH A SHEAR LINE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF YAP. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO SPREAD OVER
YAP BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY REACH KOROR SUNDAY MORNING.
AS TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK MOVES TOWARD THE REGION ON MONDAY...
SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH DIVERGENT SURFACE WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE
STORM MIGHT PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS FOR KOROR
AND YAP. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...STORMY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY NEAR YAP AS MAYSAK IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSER THERE.
FOR NOW...HAVE INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE TO SCATTERED AND WINDS TO
STRONG FOR YAP.

LATEST SATELLITE ALTIMETRY REVEALS SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET NEAR THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE. THIS AGREES WITH LARGE NORTHEAST
SWELL MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT HAZARDOUS SURF ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SWELL TO LINGER THRU THIS AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS AND SURF WILL
BUILD AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK APPROACHES.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/CHAN





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 272207
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
807 AM CHST SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE INDICATED BY RADAR AND SATELLITE OVER THE
MARIANAS WATERS...WITH A SHEAR LINE POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF
SAIPAN. THE IPAN BUOY IS ONLY SHOWING SEAS OF 6-7 FEET. TROPICAL
STORM MAYSAK (04W) IS CENTERED BETWEEN CHUUK AND POHNPEI WITH MAX
WINDS OF 40 MPH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TWEAKED THE WAVE HEIGHT GRIDS TODAY...BUT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE DURING AND FOLLOWING MAYSAK`S PASSAGE WELL SOUTH OF GUAM
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NOW...AS WINDS AND
SEAS HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT FROM YESTERDAY. BUT IT WOULD NOT TAKE
MUCH TO GET AN ADVISORY GOING AGAIN...AND INDEED ANOTHER ONE WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED BY SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL
STORM MAYSAK.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT IN TAKING TS MAYSAK JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH
OF STRAIGHT WEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PASSING WELL SOUTH OF GUAM ON
MONDAY. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS MON-TUE...MAINLY DUE TO
TRAILING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK IS SLOWLY MOVING AWAY FROM POHNPEI THIS
MORNING. A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
MAYSAK PASSING JUST SOUTH OF KOSRAE TO END NEAR TARAWA ATOLL.
CONVERGING SURFACE WINDS NEAR THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SPARK
OFF CONVECTION NEAR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THRU TONIGHT. AS MAYSAK AND
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH DRIFT WESTWARD ON SUNDAY...A SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT FROM THE MARSHALL ISLANDS TO OVER KOSRAE AND
POHNPEI. THEREFORE EXPECT QUIETER WEATHER FOR BOTH PLACES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS PROGRESSING WESTWARD
FROM THE DATE LINE THIS MORNING. IT WILL ARRIVE AT THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS LATER THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATE INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE
NEAR MAJURO BY MIDNIGHT BUT RESIDUAL DRYNESS ABOVE 500MB SHOULD
HINDER THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. BY SUNDAY...MOISTURE
ADVECTED BY UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE MONDAY
NIGHT...MUCH DRIER NORTHEAST TRADES SHOULD DOMINATE THE MARSHALLS
THRU MIDWEEK. FOR KOSRAE AND POHNPEI...THIS SAME DISTURBANCE WILL
ALSO BRING SHOWERY CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY.

A TRADE-WIND SURGE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE DATE LINE EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD CAUSE TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL TO BUILD ACROSS
KOSRAE AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGH
SURF AND HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR SMALL CRAFT.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK IS NEAR 7N156E...ABOUT 275 MILES EAST OF WENO
ISLAND IN CHUUK STATE THIS MORNING. LATEST ENHANCED IR SATELLITE
LOOP SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE CENTER OF MAYSAK. THIS IS AN INDICATION THAT MAYSAK IS
OVERCOMING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AT THE UPPER LEVELS. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...MAYSAK WILL INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES CHUUK TODAY.
DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF MAYSAK...ITS EXACT TRACK WILL DETERMINE
HOW MUCH WIND AND RAIN CHUUK WILL EXPERIENCE DURING ITS PASSAGE
TONIGHT. WITH A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY OVER IWO TO
ISLAND...MAYSAK MIGHT TAKE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK PASSING VERY
CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN WATERS OF CHUUK EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR
NOW...HAVE MENTIONED WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND HEAVY
RAIN FOR CHUUK THIS EVENING THRU SUNDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE
LATEST DEEP CONVECTION FLARING UP THIS MORNING...3 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN ARE PROBABLE BY SUNDAY EVENING. INCREASING WIND WAVES WILL
COMBINE WITH EXISTING TRADE-WIND SWELL TO CAUSE SEAS OF 7 TO 9
FEET THIS MORNING TO RISE AND REACH 8 TO 10 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
SEAS WILL BUILD ABOVE 12 FEET TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY MORNING AS
MAYSAK MOVES THRU. THINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MAYSAK DEPARTS. HOWEVER CONVERGING
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP PERIODIC SHOWERS AROUND THRU MONDAY
BEFORE SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE EAST FINALLY BRINGS FAIRER
WEATHER ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS MIGHT RETURN NEAR MIDWEEK AS A TRADE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM NEAR POHNPEI.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS COUPLING WITH A SHEAR LINE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF YAP. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO SPREAD OVER
YAP BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY REACH KOROR SUNDAY MORNING.
AS TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK MOVES TOWARD THE REGION ON MONDAY...
SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH DIVERGENT SURFACE WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE
STORM MIGHT PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS FOR KOROR
AND YAP. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...STORMY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY NEAR YAP AS MAYSAK IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSER THERE.
FOR NOW...HAVE INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE TO SCATTERED AND WINDS TO
STRONG FOR YAP.

LATEST SATELLITE ALTIMETRY REVEALS SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET NEAR THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE. THIS AGREES WITH LARGE NORTHEAST
SWELL MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT HAZARDOUS SURF ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SWELL TO LINGER THRU THIS AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS AND SURF WILL
BUILD AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK APPROACHES.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/CHAN





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