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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 031952 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
600 AM CHST TUE AUG 4 2015

UPDATED TO ADD MICRONESIA DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
COVERAGE AREA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. SUPER TYPHOON SOUDELOR
IS NEAR 18N141E AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS. ASCAT ANALYSIS
AND SATELLITE SHOW SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. VAD GRADIENT WINDS ARE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
ABOUT 20 KT. BUOYS SHOW COMBINED SEAS WESTERLY AT 8 TO 9 FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER COVERAGE WAS INCREASED TO SCATTERED FOR TODAY BASED ON RADAR
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. THE MONSOON-TYPE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE MARIANAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT LEAST. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONGER TERM FORECAST SINCE SLIGHTLY DRIER
SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS SHOULD RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT DUE TO
THE LARGE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SWELL AND WIND WAVES GENERATED BY THE
FLOW AROUND SUPER TYPHOON SOUDELOR. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE WINDS AND WAVES FORECAST.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SUPER TYPHOON
SOUDELOR OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA IS GOING TO PERSIST NEAR POHNPEI
AND KOSRAE THRU WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE PERIODIC SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
BOTH LOCATIONS UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTERWARD...DRIER GENTLE
TRADES ALREADY DOMINATING MAJURO WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND ARRIVE AT
BOTH PLACES. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CHANCE OF THE SHOWERS MIGHT
INCREASE NEAR MAJURO AFTER MIDWEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK TRADE-WIND
DISTURBANCES MOVE WESTWARD FROM THE DATE LINE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO OCCUR AT KOSRAE AND POHNPEI TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS THESE
SYSTEMS PROGRESS FARTHER WESTWARD.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
MODERATE MONSOON WINDS FEEDING TOWARD SUPER TYPHOON SOUDELOR OVER
THE PHILIPPINE SEA WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
CHUUK THRU WEDNESDAY. ONCE SOUDELOR HAS TRACKED FARTHER
NORTHWESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGING CURRENTLY JUST
EAST OF CHUUK SHOULD SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE ISLAND. THIS WILL
PROMOTE FAIR WEATHER THERE FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

SOUDELOR HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A SUPER TYPHOON OVER THE PHILIPPINE
SEA OVERNIGHT. IN RESPONSE...A FRESH TO STRONG MONSOON SURGE HAS
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE. THIS SURGE
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS NEAR KOROR
AND YAP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONCE SOUDELOR HAS TRACKED NORTH
OF 25N OVER THE WEEKEND...WEAKENING MONSOON WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
THINGS TO IMPROVE ACROSS BOTH LOCALES.

A BUILDING SOUTHWEST SWELL GENERATED BY THE MONSOON SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS SURF ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND
YAP STATE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...LONG-PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL PRODUCED BY SUPER TYPHOON SOUDELOR WILL JOIN FORCES
WITH THE EXISTING SOUTHWEST SWELL AND PROLONG HAZARDOUS SURF THRU
FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH SWELL WILL ALSO CREATE HAZARDOUS
SEAS FOR SMALL CRAFT FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST FRIDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     UNTIL 4 PM CHST WEDNESDAY FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

SIMPSON/CHAN





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 031913
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
513 AM CHST TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
COVERAGE AREA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. SUPER TYPHOON SOUDELOR
IS NEAR 18N141E AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS. ASCAT ANALYSIS
AND SATELLITE SHOW SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. VAD GRADIENT WINDS ARE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
ABOUT 20 KT. BUOYS SHOW COMBINED SEAS WESTERLY AT 8 TO 9 FEET.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER COVERAGE WAS INCREASED TO SCATTERED FOR TODAY BASED ON RADAR
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. THE MONSOON-TYPE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE MARIANAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT LEAST. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONGER TERM FORECAST SINCE SLIGHTLY DRIER
SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS SHOULD RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT DUE TO
THE LARGE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SWELL AND WIND WAVES GENERATED BY THE
FLOW AROUND SUPER TYPHOON SOUDELOR. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE WINDS AND WAVES FORECAST.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...WILL BE SENT LATER.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...WILL BE SENT LATER.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST FRIDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     UNTIL 4 PM CHST WEDNESDAY FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

SIMPSON/CHAN





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 031913
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
513 AM CHST TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
COVERAGE AREA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. SUPER TYPHOON SOUDELOR
IS NEAR 18N141E AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS. ASCAT ANALYSIS
AND SATELLITE SHOW SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. VAD GRADIENT WINDS ARE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
ABOUT 20 KT. BUOYS SHOW COMBINED SEAS WESTERLY AT 8 TO 9 FEET.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER COVERAGE WAS INCREASED TO SCATTERED FOR TODAY BASED ON RADAR
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. THE MONSOON-TYPE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE MARIANAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT LEAST. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONGER TERM FORECAST SINCE SLIGHTLY DRIER
SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS SHOULD RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT DUE TO
THE LARGE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SWELL AND WIND WAVES GENERATED BY THE
FLOW AROUND SUPER TYPHOON SOUDELOR. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE WINDS AND WAVES FORECAST.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...WILL BE SENT LATER.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...WILL BE SENT LATER.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST FRIDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     UNTIL 4 PM CHST WEDNESDAY FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

SIMPSON/CHAN





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 030741
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
541 PM CHST MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED MONSOON SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 12 THOUSAND
FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS SOUDELOR PULLS AWAY SURFACE WINDS ARE DECREASING. A SUBSIDENT
MOAT AROUND THE TYPHOON HAS MADE SHOWERS ISOLATED TONIGHT. AS THE
TYPHOON PULLS THAT MOAT AWAY TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH IT...LOOK
FOR AN INCREASE IN MONSOON SHOWERS PERHAPS AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. NEXT WEEK BOTH GFS40 AND ECMWF-HIRES
TURN WINDS BACK TOWARD THE EAST. IF THEY HAVE NOT THINNED OUT
ALREADY...THE RETURN TO EAST FLOW SHOULD MAKE THEM ISOLATED AGAIN.
DID GO AHEAD AND RAISE POPS TO 50 BASED ON MODEL-TO-MODEL AND
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.

SEAS ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...YET COULD REMAIN HAZARDOUS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EVEN AFTER WEDNESDAY...THEY WILL REMAIN ONLY A
FOOT OR TWO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. RECREATIONAL
BOATING SHOULD BE POSTPONED FOR MORE BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
TYPHOON SOUDELOR CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE
MARIANAS. IT IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AND COULD BECOME A SUPER
TYPHOON. THANKFULLY THERE IS NOT MUCH LAND IN ITS PATH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. LAST NIGHT THE ISLAND OF SAIPAN WAS NOT SO LUCKY. AROUND
DAY 5 SOUDELOR COULD THREATEN TAIWAN...WILL BE ONE FOR THEM TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA FROM 10N160E
TO A CIRCULATION NEAR 1N173E. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EDGE
OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO POHNPEI AND KOSRAE TONIGHT. THE AREA OF
CONVERGENCE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND ALLOW DRIER AIR TO PREVAIL
ACROSS KOSRAE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CONVERGENCE AREA WILL
LINGER OVER POHNPEI SO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THERE.

THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF MAJURO.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF A MONSOON TROUGH BROUGHT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PALAU THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
CONVERGENT BAND WILL REMAIN A FEW MORE DAYS CAUSING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE AT PALAU THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. TYPHOON SOUDELOR TO NORTH OF WESTERN
MICRONESIA IS CAUSING A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT IN THE MONSOON WINDS
ACROSS PALAU. THIS WILL PRODUCE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS OVER PALAU
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE TYPHOON MOVES WEST IT WILL PULL THE
CONVERGENT BAND A LITTLE NORTH. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO YAP TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
CHUUK WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM ACTIVITY IN WESTERN OR
EASTERN MICRONESIA THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALL THAT IS EXPECTED THERE THROUGH THE FORECAST.

TYPHOON SOUDELOR WILL PUSH SWELLS TOWARDS PALAU AND YAP. THESE SWELLS
WILL BE CLOSE TO PRODUCING HAZARDOUS SURF AT THESE TWO LOCATIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME THE MODEL WAVE
PREDICTIONS KEEP SURF JUST BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED AS THE MODELS MIGHT BE TOO LOW. AT ANY RATE THE
SWELL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD THAT MAY CAUSE DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS...EVEN IF HIGH SURF IS NOT PRODUCED.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST FRIDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CHST TUESDAY FOR PMZ151>154.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 4
     PM CHST WEDNESDAY FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

STANKO/ZIOBRO





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 022019
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
619 AM CHST MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EYE OF TYPHOON SOUDELOR IS LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SAIPAN. SOUDELOR CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AWAY FROM
THE MARIANAS. SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE CDO/AREA OF CONTINUOUS RAIN IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST ZONES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOR EARLY THIS MORNING CLOSELY FOLLOWS CONTINUITY AS
SOUDELOR IS DEPARTING ON SCHEDULE. DID REDUCE POPS...THUNDER
CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AS BOTH
SATELLITE AND MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST MOAT AROUND SOUDELOR WILL
SUPPRESS SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON VERY WET MONSOONAL FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED
OVER THE FORECAST ZONES BY WEDNESDAY. DID EXTEND SCATTERED POPS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS SOUDELOR DEPARTS...EXPECT RELATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS
TO COME DOWN LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...LONG PERIOD SWELL
GENERATED BY THE TYPHOON WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE LEANED ON THE LATEST BUOY
READINGS FROM GUAM AND SAIPAN TO INITIALIZE SURF HEIGHTS AND
COMBINED SEAS AS INITIAL WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE COMES IN LOW. DAY SHIFT
MAY NEED TO TWEAK THE SWELL GRIDS IF BUOY READINGS INCREASE OR
DECREASE MORE THAN EXPECTED. MONSOONAL SWELL COULD NECESSITATE
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MARINE SWELL GRIDS AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
SOUDELOR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AFTER BLASTING THE ISLAND OF SAIPAN
WITH TYPHOON CONDITIONS LATE YESTERDAY EVENING. LATEST ASCAT/
RAPIDSCAT/WINDSAT ANALYSIS INDICATES 35 KT WIND RADIUS HAS BEEN
EXPANDING...ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTH SIDE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM TYPHOON SOUDELOR
NEAR THE MARIANA ISLANDS TO SOUTHEAST OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS AT
1N178E. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DRIFT WESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KOSRAE
THRU TONIGHT AND REACH POHNPEI BY TONIGHT. WITH MAJURO ALREADY
LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...GENTLE TRADES SHOULD
PROVIDE A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN THERE UNTIL MIDWEEK. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN A WEAK TRADE
DISTURBANCE FROM NEAR THE DATE LINE MIGHT TRIGGER A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS. THESE SAME DRIER TRADES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT
KOSRAE BY TUESDAY AND POHNPEI BY MIDWEEK. TOWARD THE WEEKEND...
INCREASING TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE MIGHT BRING BACK WETTER WEATHER
FROM EAST TO WEST.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH MONSOON WINDS SOUTHEAST OF TYPHOON
SOUDELOR WILL PROLONG UNSTABLE WEATHER NEAR CHUUK THRU TONIGHT.
AS SOUDELOR SLOWLY TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE
SEA ON TUESDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE NEAR POHNPEI SHOULD SHIFT
WESTWARD AND PROMOTE FAIR CONDITIONS NEAR CHUUK BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

A BAND OF CONVERGING WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONSOONAL WINDS FEEDING
INTO TYPHOON SOUDELOR NEAR THE MARIANA ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED OVER
KOROR AND JUST SOUTH OF YAP. THIS BAND WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERY AND
GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER KOROR THRU AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. AS
SOUDELOR MOVES FARTHER NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...IT WILL
ALLOW THESE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO SPREAD OVER YAP BY TUESDAY.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST SOUDELOR MOVES NORTHWEST OVER THE PHILIPPINE
SEA...WEATHER MIGHT NOT IMPROVE NEAR BOTH LOCATIONS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.

BUILDING SOUTHWEST SWELL GENERATED BY THE MONSOON WINDS WILL CAUSE
SURF TO RISE ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE FROM LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT. THEN BY TUESDAY...LARGE NORTHWEST
SWELL PRODUCED BY TYPHOON SOUDELOR WILL ALSO AFFECT BOTH PLACES.
THE COMBINATION OF BOTH SWELL WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS SURF AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR SMALL CRAFT FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST FRIDAY FOR GUZ001.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CHST TODAY FOR GUZ001.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUZ002.

     TYPHOON WARNING FOR GUZ003-004.

MARIANAS WATERS...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PMZ152.

     TYPHOON WARNING FOR PMZ153-154.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CHST TUESDAY FOR PMZ151.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 4
     PM CHST WEDNESDAY FOR PMZ151.

&&

$$

MCELROY/CHAN/KLEESCHULTE





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 020845
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
645 PM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITHIN THE
NORTHERN MARIANAS WATERS RELATED TO TYPHOON SOUDELOR. THE EYE OF
SOUDELOR IS SEEN JUST EAST OF SAIPAN WATERS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE
REVEALS NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 8
THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR WHICH INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AND
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ABOVE THAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TYPHOON SOUDELOR IS STILL THE PROVERBIAL 800 POUND GORILLA IN THE
ROOM. PLEASE READ BELOW IN THE TROPICAL SECTION FOR A FULL
DISCUSSION.

AFTER SOUDELOR PASSES...LOOKS LIKE THE MARIANAS WILL BE CAUGHT UP
FOR A FEW DAYS IN A MONSOON TROUGH ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FOR A FEW DAYS...THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ANYWAY...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. BY THE
WEEKEND...NEWEST GFS40 SHOWS A RETURN TO TRADE WIND FLOW WHICH BY
THEN WOULD USHER IN REDUCED SHOWER COVERAGE.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
TYPHOON SOUDELOR JUST SLOWED DOWN DRAMATICALLY...PROBABLY MEANING
IT IS ABOUT TO TURN. IT SEEMS TO BE STARTING THE NORTHWEST TURN AT
LAST. THIS WOULD HAVE IT PRIMARILY AFFECTING TINIAN AND SAIPAN...
WITH A CHANCE THAT THE NORTHERN ISLANDS MAY IN FACT SEE SOME NASTY
WEATHER AFTER ALL. THE WATCHES MAY HAVE TO BE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS
ON SHORT NOTICE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUDELOR TO THE EQUATOR AND 178E
AND REMAINS THE MAJOR FEATURE IN THE AREA. FOR THE MOST PART THE
CONVERGENCE INTO THIS TROUGH HAS KEPT THE CONVECTION LINGERING
OVER POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES. AS SOUDELOR TRACKS WESTWARD THE
AREA WILL A RETURN TO AN EASTERLY WIND PATTERN.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
AGAIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS THE MAJOR PLAYER IN THIS REGION. A
LARGE MONSOON BAND EXTENDS ACROSS PALAU AND INTO THE MARIANAS
ISLANDS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED AS THIS WILL BE THE
MAIN WEATHER MAKER. PALAU AND YAP WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. CHUUK WEATHER WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE WEEK.

NO CHANGE TO THE SEAS FORECAST AS WAVE MODELS SHOW SEAS BUILDING ACROSS
PALAU AND YAP BY MIDWEEK DUE TO THE INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS. AT THE
SAME TIME...A LONGER PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL IS FORECAST AS TROPICAL
STORM SOUDELOR PASSES TO THE NORTH OF BOTH LOCATIONS. THESE
CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN
AND WESTERN SHORES AND REEFS FOR YAP AND KOROR BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CHST MONDAY FOR GUZ001.
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUZ002.
     TYPHOON WARNING FOR GUZ003-004.

MARIANAS WATERS...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PMZ152.
     TYPHOON WARNING FOR PMZ153-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CHST TUESDAY FOR PMZ151.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM TUESDAY
     TO 4 PM CHST WEDNESDAY FOR PMZ151.

&&

$$

STANKO/MILLER/ZIOBRO





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 012043
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
643 AM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE MARIANAS AND IS
CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN. SOUDELOR HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AS CONVECTION SURROUNDING
THE CENTER HAS BECOME MORE VIGOROUS AND LARGER IN AREAL EXTENT.
OTHERWISE...MONSOONAL CONVECTION HAS REMAINED DETACHED FROM
SOUDELOR AND HAS CONCENTRATED NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF SOUDELOR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST FORECAST ISSUANCE CLOSELY FOLLOWS CONTINUITY. LATEST
WARNING FROM THE JTWC BRINGS SOUDELOR THROUGH THE MARIANAS JUST TO
THE NORTH OF SAIPAN AS A MINIMAL TYPHOON...WHICH AGREES WELL WITH
THE INHERITED FORECAST GRIDS AND SCENARIO. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A WET MONSOONAL PATTERN AFTER SOUDELOR DEPARTS...SO KEPT
SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST ALTIMETRY AND BUOY READINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW RIP
CURRENT RISK FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE
DETERIORATING RAPIDLY AS SOUDELOR APPROACHES THE MARIANAS. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL PROBABLY EXCEED ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL THE FORECAST
ZONES BY LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
SOUDELOR IS DISPLAYING A BANDING EYE IN THE LATEST MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. LATEST ASCAT IMAGERY STILL SHOWS WIND RADII EXTENDING
FARTHER OUTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS TC. WIND GRIDS AND
FORECAST COVER THIS WELL. CURRENT FORECAST TRACK SUGGESTS THE
SAIPAN FORECAST ZONES WILL BE EXPERIENCING THE ROUGHEST WEATHER
WITHIN THE MARIANAS FORECAST DOMAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. 18Z WARNING
FROM JTWC CARRIES SOUDELOR JUST TO THE NORTH OF SAIPAN AS A
MINIMAL TYPHOON JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR AND THE ASSOCIATED MONSOON TROUGH REMAIN
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR EASTERN MICRONESIA. AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH MOST OF THE CONVECTION
IS NOW LIFTING FARTHER NORTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST POINTS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER KOSRAE THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE OUT OF THE STATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND DRIFT FARTHER
WESTWARD OVER POHNPEI FOR TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED OVER
POHNPEI THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON UNTIL THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY
OVER KOSRAE REACH THE ISLAND. A DRIER PATTERN IS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE OVER MAJURO AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH WESTWARD AS
SOUDELOR MOVES FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE MARIANAS. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER KOSRAE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THOUGH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL CONTINUE THERE UNTIL MIDWEEK.
POHNPEI AND CHUUK WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH THE LONGEST...THOUGH MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE A BIT
FARTHER NORTH. BOTH POINTS ARE LIKELY TO SEE DEEP CONVECTION
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED ABOVE WITH THE EASTERN MICRONESIAN
SECTION DUE TO A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS VERY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF
PALAU AND SOUTHERN YAP STATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BRIEFLY
SHIFTED OUTSIDE OF KOROR WATERS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THOUGH COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT...DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE NEAR KOROR THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF YAP THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT WILL
DRIFT CLOSE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THERE THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE GLOBAL WAVE MODEL INDICATES SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
PALAU AND YAP BY MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS. AT THE
SAME TIME...A LONGER PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL IS FORECAST AS TROPICAL
STORM SOUDELOR PASSES TO THE NORTH OF BOTH LOCATIONS. THESE
CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN
AND WESTERN SHORES AND REEFS FOR YAP AND KOROR BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GUZ002.

     TYPHOON WARNING FOR GUZ003-004.

MARIANAS WATERS...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PMZ152.

     TYPHOON WARNING FOR PMZ153-154.

&&

$$

MCELROY/KLEESCHULTE





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 010831
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
631 PM CHST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
THE MARIANAS WATERS. SATELLITE SHOWS TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR TO
THE EAST WHICH IS GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE MARIANAS. THE VAD WIND
PROFILE REVEALS DEEP NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE
LOWEST 40 THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS THE BIG FORECAST PROBLEM...WHICH WILL
BE HIGHLIGHTED UNDER THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS SECTION. OTHERWISE...
THE BIG ACTION WILL BE THE APPROACH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DUMP 6 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE PERIODS OF MINOR FLOODING DURING THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COULD GO ON A FEW DAYS
LONGER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND
THEM...PERHAPS MORE THAN ONCE.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS ARE SHOWING 3 TO 4 FEET RIGHT NOW. EXPECT THEM TO INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR. AFTER SOUDELOR PASSES
ON MONDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE. HOWEVER...IT
WILL BE QUITE SOME TIME BEFORE THEY REACH THE BENIGN LEVELS WE
HAVE BEEN ENJOYING RECENTLY.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR KEEPS GETTING FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND TO
TURN NORTHWEST. ALL LAST NIGHT AND ALL DAY TODAY IT HAS REMAINED
A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM AND BARRELED ALMOST STRAIGHT WEST. THE
CURRENT JTWC TRACK HAS IT PASSING BETWEEN SAIPAN AND ANATAHAN.
SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NORTH OF THE CENTER...THIS WOULD BE
IDEAL FROM THE STANDPOINT OF REDUCING DAMAGE. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF-
HIRES TAKES IT OVER TINIAN AND SAIPAN. THE GFS75 TAKES IT OVER
TINIAN AND SAIPAN. THE UKMET TAKES IT SOUTH OF TINIAN. HOPEFULLY
SOUDELOR WILL NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH UNTIL IT IS WEST OF THE
MARIANAS...BECAUSE IT IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE TINIAN AND SAIPAN
MAY GET THE WORSE WINDS OF THE NORTH SIDE. THIS IS WHY WE WENT
AHEAD AND UPGRADED THEIR TYPHOON WATCH TO A TYPHOON WARNING.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PATTERN AND REASONING. TROPICAL
STORM SOUDELOR IS NOW LOCATED NORTH OF CHUUK NEAR 14N153E AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM SOUDELOR THROUGH A WEAK CIRCULATION NEAR 3N166E TO END AT
EQ176E. CONVERGENT WINDS FLOWING INTO SOUDELOR ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CHUUK...
POHNPEI...KWAJALEIN AND KOSRAE. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE
MARIANAS. ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH
THROUGH KOSRAE STATE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS NOW TO
THE WEST OF MAJURO WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT MAJURO THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE CIRCULATION WEST OF MAJURO WILL HELP MAINTAIN A
MONSOON PATTERN OVER KOSRAE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A DRIER AND
MORE PLEASANT PATTERN MOVING IN FROM THE MARSHALL ISLANDS SUNDAY
EVENING. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD WESTWARD...OVER POHNPEI
MONDAY AND OVER CHUUK LATER IN THE WEEK.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SWELL AND WIND WAVES ALONG THE
WEST COASTS OF MICRONESIA. THE WW3 MODEL AND ALTIMETRY DATA INDICATE
SHORT-PERIOD WAVES WILL BE UP TO 5 OR 6 FEET ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
COMING DAYS. IF THE WEST SWELL BUILDS UP TO AROUND 7 FEET...THEN
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED ABOVE WITH THE EASTERN MICRONESIAN
DISCUSSION DUE TO A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

THE MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHES EASTWARD FROM 10N130E TO ABOUT 10N140E
THEN TURNS NORTHEASTWARD TO TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR. CONVERGENCE
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF YAP BUT THE
MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED CONDITIONS SUITABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SO
ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO TONIGHTS AND SUNDAYS FORECAST.
EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE WESTERLY WINDS WITH COMBINED SEAS BUILDING
ACROSS PALAU AND YAP THIS WEEKEND. THE WEST SURF IN PARTICULAR COULD
BECOME HAZARDOUS BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GUZ002.
     TYPHOON WARNING FOR GUZ003-004.

MARIANAS WATERS...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PMZ152.
                  TYPHOON WARNING FOR PMZ153-154.

&&

$$

STANKO/ZIOBRO/DEVITA





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