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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 230706 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
505 PM CHST SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED TO ADD MICRONESIAN DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
MARIANAS AND OUT EAST TO A LITTLE PAST 150E. BUT SATELLITE SHOWS A
TRADE-WIND TROUGH EAST OF THE ISLANDS AROUND 155E WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE TROUGH AXIS AND OUT
TO THE EAST PAST 160E. SEAS ARE 5-6 FT AT THE IPAN BUOY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE TRADE DISTURBANCE AT 155E. KEPT SHOWERS
ISOLATED AS IT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS THE GFS
AND ECMWF KEEP THE HEAVIER RAIN JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. BUT WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH IT CLOSELY...AND MAY NEED TO ADD ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL.
ONCE THIS GETS BY...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD RETURN...BUT MAY
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE LATE IN THE WEEK
THAT THE MODELS DRAG UP FROM NEAR POHNPEI AND MOVE NORTHWEST
MAINLY EAST OF THE MARIANAS. HAVE NOT INCORPORATED THIS INTO THE
GRIDS AT THIS POINT...AS IT APPEARS SPECULATIVE AT BEST.

&&

.MARINE...
REFRESHED ALL THE WAVE AND SWELL GRIDS...BUT THIS DID NOT RESULT
IN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEK...AND THE RIP RISK MAY REACH LOW
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK CIRCULATION LIES SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK NEAR 5N151E. THE ASSOCIATED
TROUGH RUNS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION...TO SOUTH OF
CHUUK...POHNPEI AND NEAR KOSRAE. SATELLITE SHOWS PATCHY AREAS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF CHUUK AND
POHNPEI AND WEST AND SOUTH OF KOSRAE. IN THE COMING DAYS THE MODELS SHOW
THE CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AND
DISSIPATING. FOR MAJURO...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE JUST TO
THE EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN A SLIGHTLY DRIER TRADE-WIND PATTERN
FOLLOWS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DISCUSSION FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST IS INCLUDED IN EASTERN MICRONESIA DUE
TO A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN YAP AND KOROR WILL PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE YAP AND KOROR MARINE
ZONES TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IN
THE LONGER TERM. RESIDENTS OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THEIR WATER SUPPLIES AND BE PREPARED FOR CONTINUED
VERY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 230706 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
505 PM CHST SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED TO ADD MICRONESIAN DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
MARIANAS AND OUT EAST TO A LITTLE PAST 150E. BUT SATELLITE SHOWS A
TRADE-WIND TROUGH EAST OF THE ISLANDS AROUND 155E WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE TROUGH AXIS AND OUT
TO THE EAST PAST 160E. SEAS ARE 5-6 FT AT THE IPAN BUOY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE TRADE DISTURBANCE AT 155E. KEPT SHOWERS
ISOLATED AS IT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS THE GFS
AND ECMWF KEEP THE HEAVIER RAIN JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. BUT WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH IT CLOSELY...AND MAY NEED TO ADD ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL.
ONCE THIS GETS BY...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD RETURN...BUT MAY
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE LATE IN THE WEEK
THAT THE MODELS DRAG UP FROM NEAR POHNPEI AND MOVE NORTHWEST
MAINLY EAST OF THE MARIANAS. HAVE NOT INCORPORATED THIS INTO THE
GRIDS AT THIS POINT...AS IT APPEARS SPECULATIVE AT BEST.

&&

.MARINE...
REFRESHED ALL THE WAVE AND SWELL GRIDS...BUT THIS DID NOT RESULT
IN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEK...AND THE RIP RISK MAY REACH LOW
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK CIRCULATION LIES SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK NEAR 5N151E. THE ASSOCIATED
TROUGH RUNS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION...TO SOUTH OF
CHUUK...POHNPEI AND NEAR KOSRAE. SATELLITE SHOWS PATCHY AREAS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF CHUUK AND
POHNPEI AND WEST AND SOUTH OF KOSRAE. IN THE COMING DAYS THE MODELS SHOW
THE CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AND
DISSIPATING. FOR MAJURO...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE JUST TO
THE EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN A SLIGHTLY DRIER TRADE-WIND PATTERN
FOLLOWS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DISCUSSION FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST IS INCLUDED IN EASTERN MICRONESIA DUE
TO A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN YAP AND KOROR WILL PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE YAP AND KOROR MARINE
ZONES TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IN
THE LONGER TERM. RESIDENTS OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THEIR WATER SUPPLIES AND BE PREPARED FOR CONTINUED
VERY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 230542
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
342 PM CHST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
MARIANAS AND OUT EAST TO A LITTLE PAST 150E. BUT SATELLITE SHOWS A
TRADE-WIND TROUGH EAST OF THE ISLANDS AROUND 155E WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE TROUGH AXIS AND OUT
TO THE EAST PAST 160E. SEAS ARE 5-6 FT AT THE IPAN BUOY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE TRADE DISTURBANCE AT 155E. KEPT SHOWERS
ISOLATED AS IT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS THE GFS
AND ECMWF KEEP THE HEAVIER RAIN JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. BUT WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH IT CLOSELY...AND MAY NEED TO ADD ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL.
ONCE THIS GETS BY...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD RETURN...BUT MAY
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE LATE IN THE WEEK
THAT THE MODELS DRAG UP FROM NEAR POHNPEI AND MOVE NORTHWEST
MAINLY EAST OF THE MARIANAS. HAVE NOT INCORPORATED THIS INTO THE
GRIDS AT THIS POINT...AS IT APPEARS SPECULATIVE AT BEST.

&&

.MARINE...
REFRESHED ALL THE WAVE AND SWELL GRIDS...BUT THIS DID NOT RESULT
IN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEK...AND THE RIP RISK MAY REACH LOW
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
WILL BE ADDED WHEN AVAILABLE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
WILL BE ADDED WHEN AVAILABLE.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 230542
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
342 PM CHST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
MARIANAS AND OUT EAST TO A LITTLE PAST 150E. BUT SATELLITE SHOWS A
TRADE-WIND TROUGH EAST OF THE ISLANDS AROUND 155E WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE TROUGH AXIS AND OUT
TO THE EAST PAST 160E. SEAS ARE 5-6 FT AT THE IPAN BUOY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE TRADE DISTURBANCE AT 155E. KEPT SHOWERS
ISOLATED AS IT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS THE GFS
AND ECMWF KEEP THE HEAVIER RAIN JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. BUT WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH IT CLOSELY...AND MAY NEED TO ADD ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL.
ONCE THIS GETS BY...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD RETURN...BUT MAY
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE LATE IN THE WEEK
THAT THE MODELS DRAG UP FROM NEAR POHNPEI AND MOVE NORTHWEST
MAINLY EAST OF THE MARIANAS. HAVE NOT INCORPORATED THIS INTO THE
GRIDS AT THIS POINT...AS IT APPEARS SPECULATIVE AT BEST.

&&

.MARINE...
REFRESHED ALL THE WAVE AND SWELL GRIDS...BUT THIS DID NOT RESULT
IN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEK...AND THE RIP RISK MAY REACH LOW
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
WILL BE ADDED WHEN AVAILABLE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
WILL BE ADDED WHEN AVAILABLE.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 222054
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
654 AM CHST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE MARIANA ISLANDS ARE BETWEEN A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 22N AND
A MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA NEAR 6N. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE DISTURBANCE IS VISIBLE NEAR 14N160E.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER MODERATE TRADES ARE GOING TO DOMINATE OUR AREA UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING. THEN THE TRADE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST SHOULD APPROACH
THE MARIANAS. IT IS A BIT TOO EARLY TO PIN POINT THE ONSET OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A FAIR TRADE REGIME
WILL RESUME.

&&

.MARINE...
RESIDUAL N-NW SWELL GENERATED BY FORMER TYPHOON DOLPHIN WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SURF ALONG THE NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES TO DECREASE BY
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE TRADE-WIND SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL KEEP SEAS
AT 5 TO 7 FEET THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR WITH AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION
NEAR CHUUK AT 6N152E AND A MONSOON/SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING EASTWARD
THROUGH ANOTHER WEAK CIRCULATION AT 5N164E THEN NORTHEASTWARD TO END
NORTHEAST OF MAJURO AT ABOUT 9N177E. THE CIRCULATION NEAR CHUUK IS
VERY SLOW MOVING BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DRIFT WESTWARD ALONG WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND THE OTHER WEAK CIRCULATION. MEANWHILE...PATCHY
AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MICRONESIA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A
SLIGHTLY DRIER TRADE WIND FLOW DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DISCUSSION FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST IS INCLUDED IN EASTERN MICRONESIA
DUE TO A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC REGIME.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER DOMINATES CONDITIONS OVER FAR WESTERN
MICRONESIA AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR KOROR AND YAP THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AT LEAST. RESIDENTS OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU
AND YAP STATE SHOULD MONITOR THEIR WATER SUPPLIES AND BE PREPARED
FOR VERY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

CHAN/SIMPSON





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 220643
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
443 PM CHST FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE SEEN IN SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MARIANAS. OBSERVATIONS SHOW
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE CENTERED JUST SOUTH
OF CHUUK LAGOON IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CHUUK STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY SKIES WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS THE MARIANAS. THE DISTURBANCE NEAR CHUUK IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP WELL TO THE SOUTH AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. WE
COULD SEE AN INCREASE CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THAT DISTURBANCE PASSES. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL
SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BECOMING GENTLE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN BY MIDWEEK. A
RESIDUAL NORTH SWELL FROM LONG-GONE TYPHOON DOLPHIN WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS EASTWARD ALONG 5N FROM A WEAK CIRCULATION
NEAR CHUUK TO SOUTH OF MAJURO. WHILE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS SOUTH OF POHNPEI...KOSRAE AND MAJURO. OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS THE GFS AND ECMWF REPLACE THE TROUGH WITH WEAK EAST TO
SOUTHEAST TRADES WITH SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...BUT NO WELL-
DEFINED WEATHER SYSTEMS. LITTLE CHANGE THEREFORE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MAINLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS.
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE SHOULD ALSO SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE TRADES KNOCK OUT THE TROUGH AND BRING
DECREASING MOISTURE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
MODELS KEEP YAP AND PALAU UNDER RELATIVELY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS RATHER DRY WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS. CHUUK...BEING RIGHT IN THE THICK
OF THE CIRCULATION AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS... SHOULD SEE LOTS
OF CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BUT
THEN THE CIRCULATION MOVES OFF TO THE WEST AND THE TROUGH
EXTENDING EAST FROM IT SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
FEATURE DRY NORTH WINDS AS A RIDGE SETS UP JUST TO THE
WEST...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

M. AYDLETT/MIDDLEBROOKE





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 220643
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
443 PM CHST FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE SEEN IN SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MARIANAS. OBSERVATIONS SHOW
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE CENTERED JUST SOUTH
OF CHUUK LAGOON IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CHUUK STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY SKIES WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS THE MARIANAS. THE DISTURBANCE NEAR CHUUK IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP WELL TO THE SOUTH AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. WE
COULD SEE AN INCREASE CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THAT DISTURBANCE PASSES. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL
SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BECOMING GENTLE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN BY MIDWEEK. A
RESIDUAL NORTH SWELL FROM LONG-GONE TYPHOON DOLPHIN WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS EASTWARD ALONG 5N FROM A WEAK CIRCULATION
NEAR CHUUK TO SOUTH OF MAJURO. WHILE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS SOUTH OF POHNPEI...KOSRAE AND MAJURO. OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS THE GFS AND ECMWF REPLACE THE TROUGH WITH WEAK EAST TO
SOUTHEAST TRADES WITH SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...BUT NO WELL-
DEFINED WEATHER SYSTEMS. LITTLE CHANGE THEREFORE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MAINLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS.
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE SHOULD ALSO SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE TRADES KNOCK OUT THE TROUGH AND BRING
DECREASING MOISTURE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
MODELS KEEP YAP AND PALAU UNDER RELATIVELY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS RATHER DRY WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS. CHUUK...BEING RIGHT IN THE THICK
OF THE CIRCULATION AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS... SHOULD SEE LOTS
OF CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BUT
THEN THE CIRCULATION MOVES OFF TO THE WEST AND THE TROUGH
EXTENDING EAST FROM IT SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
FEATURE DRY NORTH WINDS AS A RIDGE SETS UP JUST TO THE
WEST...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

M. AYDLETT/MIDDLEBROOKE





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 212034
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
634 AM CHST FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE STRETCHES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTH OF WAKE
ISLAND AT 27N165E PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS AT
22N145E TO EAST OF LUZON AT 17N125E. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS
NORTHWARD FROM A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED SOUTH OF WENO
ISLAND IN CHUUK STATE NEAR 6N153E TO 13N152E. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS SEEN SOUTHEAST OF GUAM NEAR 11N150E.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE PERSISTING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE DISTURBANCE NEAR
CHUUK SOUTH OF 10N AS IT GRADUALLY DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...CONVERGING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS NEAR
THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCE COULD ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS BY SUNDAY EVENING. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
DISTURBANCE/TROUGH BY MIDWEEK...GENTLE TRADES SHOULD BRING BACK
DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
RESIDUAL N-NW SWELL GENERATED BY FORMER TYPHOON DOLPHIN WILL
MAINTAIN SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE MARIANA WATERS THRU
TONIGHT. AFTERWARD THIS SWELL SHOULD SUBSIDE FURTHER ON SATURDAY
AND THEN DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING SEAS TO DROP TO BETWEEN 4
AND 5 FEET.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IR LOOPS AND ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOW A WEAK CIRCULATION NEAR
CHUUK AT ABOUT 6N153E...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR
2N166E. THE CIRCULATION IS VERY SLOW MOVING AND CAUSING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM ACROSS CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES
EASTWARD TO NEAR KOSRAE. ALSO...TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS TRIGGERING
SHOWERS IN PATCHY AREAS FROM TARAWA AND BUTARITARI AREAS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE RMI. MOST MODELS INDICATE THE WEAK CIRCULATION WILL MOVE
SLOWLY TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE COMING DAYS...WHILE A RELATIVELY
MOIST TRADE-WIND PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA AND
CHUUK STATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DISCUSSION FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST IS INCLUDED IN EASTERN MICRONESIA
DUE TO A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC REGIME.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS BETWEEN YAP AND KOROR EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH PATCHY CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES WEATHER OVER FAR WESTERN MICRONESIA AND LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED FOR KOROR AND YAP THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RESIDENTS
OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE SHOULD MONITOR THEIR WATER
SUPPLIES. DROUGHT STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF THE SITUATION BECOMES
MORE SERIOUS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

CHAN/SIMPSON





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 210725
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
525 PM CHST THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE MORNING SOUNDING...SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATE DRY...PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SURROUNDING THE MARIANAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS INDICATE GUAM AND THE CNMI ARE JUST SOUTH OF A SURFACE
RIDGE AND REMAIN SOUTH OF THE RIDGE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WILL INTERRUPT THE MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ABOUT
SATURDAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORMER TYPHOON DOLPHIN BROUGHT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED SWELLS AND
SURF TO NORTHERN EXPOSURES...SO INCREASED THE SWELL GRIDS BY ONE
FOOT ON NORTH AND WEST EXPOSURES...AND EXTENDED THE NORTH SWELL ON
THE GRIDS ANOTHER TWO DAYS TO SUNDAY. IPAN BUOY REPORTED 5 FOOT
SEAS...HOWEVER IT IS SHELTERED FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
TYPHOON SWELL.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CAN BE SEEN JUST SOUTH OF CHUUK NEAR
6N153E THIS EVENING. MODERATE TRADE WINDS CONVERGING ALONG ITS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN EDGES ARE TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR CHUUK AND POHNPEI. THE SHOWERS WERE ALSO OVER
KOSRAE THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE MOVED WESTWARD AS THE DAY PASSED.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY FOR CHUUK AND POHNPEI. FARTHER
EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH IS INCHING SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS FROM 175E. DRIER NORTHEASTERLY TRADES AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING CLOUDS TO MAJURO LATE TONIGHT...

BEHIND THE WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...A SURFACE RIDGE JUST EAST
OF KOSRAE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND DRY OUT THE WEATHER THERE DURING
THIS WEEKEND. THE CIRCULATION WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
CHUUK AND POHNPEI TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED CONVECTION NEARBY THROUGH
SATURDAY. CLOUD COVER NEAR MAJURO WILL ALSO INCREASE BY FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE EASTERN SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES AT THE MARSHALLS.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ON SUNDAY...WEAKER TRADES
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW DRIER WEATHER AND CLEARER
SKIES. MEANWHILE...THE SLIGHTLY DISTURBED WEATHER WILL PUSH INTO
KOSRAE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DISCUSSION FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST IS INCLUDED IN EASTERN
MICRONESIA DUE TO A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC REGIME.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS INCREASING CLOUD COVER A LITTLE BIT OVER YAP
TONIGHT AND LIKEWISE OVER PALAU FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE CLOUDS AT
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE TROUGH ARE ANEMIC ENOUGH THAT IT HARDLY
SEEMED WORTH FORECASTING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL RETURN WEATHER TO ITS
PREVIOUS DRIER STATE SOON ENOUGH...PROBABLY ON OR BEFORE SATURDAY
NIGHT. IF THIS DRY PATTERN PERSISTS THRU NEXT WEEK...RESIDENTS OF
THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE MIGHT NEED TO MONITOR THEIR
WATER SUPPLY CLOSELY. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN
ISSUING DROUGHT STATEMENTS IF THE SITUATION BECOMES SERIOUS. SO
FAR THIS MONTH THE KOROR WEATHER OFFICE HAS JUST BARELY MORE THAN
HALF ITS NORMAL RAINFALL FOR MAY. THE GFS40 AND THE ECMWF-HIRES
ARE BOTH EXPECTING AN INCH OR LESS OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS...
OFFERING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HOPE THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

DEVITA/STANKO





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 202052 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
650 AM CHST THU MAY 21 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE MICRONESIA DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS THE COVERAGE AREA.
SATELLITE IR LOOP SHOWS VERY PATCHY CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AND
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS DRY AIR OVERHEAD. IPAN BUOY SHOWS COMBINED
SEAS ABOUT 4 FEET AND VAD GRADIENT WINDS ARE ESE/15 KT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR POHNPEI
EARLY THIS MORNING IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD WNW AND IT WILL CAUSE A
MARGINAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WINDS BY THIS WEEKEND...AND ISLAND
CONVECTION COULD EVENTUALLY TRIGGER SPOTTY SHOWERS NEAR OR JUST WEST
OF GUAM

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE-WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NORTHWEST SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FEET THIS MORNING GENERATED BY
FORMER TYPHOON DOLPHIN WILL DIMINISH BELOW 2 FEET BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CAN BE SEEN JUST SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK NEAR
6N155E THIS MORNING. MODERATE TRADE WINDS CONVERGING ALONG ITS
NORTHERN TO SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY ARE TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE FOR ALL THREE LOCATIONS THRU FRIDAY. FARTHER EAST...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS INCHING SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE MARSHALL ISLANDS
FROM 177E. DRIER NORTHEASTERLY TRADES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
KEEP FAIR WEATHER NEAR MAJURO THRU THIS EVENING.

THE WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT GRADUALLY
WESTWARD...PASSING SOUTH OF CHUUK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
WILL ALLOW A SURFACE RIDGE JUST EAST OF KOSRAE TO SHIFT WESTWARD AND
PROMOTE MUCH DRIER WEATHER THERE DURING THIS WEEKEND. FOR CHUUK AND
POHNPEI...THE CIRCULATION MIGHT STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THEM THRU SATURDAY. SHOWER COVERAGE NEAR
MAJURO WILL ALSO INCREASE BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
ARRIVES AT THE MARSHALLS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ON
SUNDAY...WEAKER TRADES IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM MIGHT INTRODUCE A
RELATIVELY FAIRER PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK. ON ANOTHER HAND...THIS SAME
SYSTEM SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING MORE SHOWERS TO KOSRAE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DISCUSSION FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST IS INCLUDED IN EASTERN MICRONESIA
DUE TO A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC REGIME.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA IS GOING TO SUPPORT
PLEASANT CONDITIONS NEAR KOROR THRU FRIDAY...AND YAP TODAY.
NEVERTHELESS...ISLAND HEATING CAN SPARK OFF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
NEAR KOROR THIS AFTERNOON. GENTLE TRADE WINDS WILL FILTER WESTWARD
ACROSS YAP BY THIS EVENING...AND KOROR BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE TRADES MIGHT COUPLE WITH DIVERGENT
WINDS ALOFT TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR YAP TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...THEN NEAR KOROR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK...
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE EAST SHOULD RESUME A DRY PATTERN FOR BOTH PLACES. IF THIS DRY
PATTERN PERSISTS THRU NEXT WEEK...RESIDENTS OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU
AND YAP STATE MIGHT NEED TO MONITOR THEIR WATER SUPPLY CLOSELY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SIMPSON/CHAN





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 201826
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
426 AM CHST THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS THE COVERAGE AREA.
SATELLITE IR LOOP SHOWS VERY PATCHY CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AND
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS DRY AIR OVERHEAD. IPAN BUOY SHOWS COMBINED
SEAS ABOUT 4 FEET AND VAD GRADIENT WINDS ARE ESE/15 KT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR POHNPEI
EARLY THIS MORNING IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD WNW AND IT WILL CAUSE A
MARGINAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WINDS BY THIS WEEKEND...AND ISLAND
CONVECTION COULD EVENTUALLY TRIGGER SPOTTY SHOWERS NEAR OR JUST WEST
OF GUAM

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE-WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NORTHWEST SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FEET THIS MORNING GENERATED BY
FORMER TYPHOON DOLPHIN WILL DIMINISH BELOW 2 FEET BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...WILL BE SENT LATER.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...WILL BE SENT LATER.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SIMPSON/CHAN





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 201826
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
426 AM CHST THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS THE COVERAGE AREA.
SATELLITE IR LOOP SHOWS VERY PATCHY CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AND
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS DRY AIR OVERHEAD. IPAN BUOY SHOWS COMBINED
SEAS ABOUT 4 FEET AND VAD GRADIENT WINDS ARE ESE/15 KT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR POHNPEI
EARLY THIS MORNING IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD WNW AND IT WILL CAUSE A
MARGINAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WINDS BY THIS WEEKEND...AND ISLAND
CONVECTION COULD EVENTUALLY TRIGGER SPOTTY SHOWERS NEAR OR JUST WEST
OF GUAM

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE-WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NORTHWEST SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FEET THIS MORNING GENERATED BY
FORMER TYPHOON DOLPHIN WILL DIMINISH BELOW 2 FEET BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...WILL BE SENT LATER.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...WILL BE SENT LATER.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SIMPSON/CHAN





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