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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 292050
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
650 AM CHST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS
MORNING. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL NORTH OF 10N.
LATEST IR SATELLITE DATA SHOWS AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHING
ACROSS MICRONESIA...SOUTH OF 10N...WITH A SERIES OF FIVE WEAK
CIRCULATIONS ALONG THE TROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO HAUNT THE MARIANAS
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON
TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS MICRONESIA AND IS AFFECTING ALL OF THE
FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA...THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND THE
REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. EACH MODEL STILL SHOWING ITS OWN
UNIQUE SOLUTION TO THE DEVELOPMENT...MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY OF
EACH OF THE CIRCULATIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH. BASED ON THE OVERALL CONSENSUS...IT LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR
INCREASING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARIANAS
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE QUESTION
THAT STILL REMAINS IS...WHAT WILL ACTUALLY BE OVER GUAM AND THE
CNMI BY THE WEEKEND. MODEL SOLUTIONS INCLUDE EVERYTHING FROM A
TYPHOON TO A MONSOON SURGE. THEREFORE...CHOSE TO MAINTAIN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NOW AS I CAN SEE NO BETTER SOLUTION AT THE
PRESENT TIME AND NO REASON TO CHANGE ANY PART OF THE INHERITED
FORECAST.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS MICRONESIA FROM
CHUUK TO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. JTWC INVEST 94W CONTINUES TO SPIN
WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK AT 9N147E...WHILE 95W REMAINS NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF KOSRAE AT 10N161E. HEAVIEST WEATHER THIS MORNING IS
JUST SOUTH OF 94W AND WEST OF CHUUK...AND NEAR POHNPEI JUST WEST OF
95W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION. BURST OF FRESH TO STRONG WEST WINDS ARE SEEN IN THE 12Z
ASCAT PASS NEAR AND SOUTH OF CHUUK...POHNPEI...KOSRAE AND MAJURO.
THESE RAIN AND WIND CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WHILE THE MONSOON TROUGH MEANDERS IN PLACE. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
LIFT TOWARDS THE WEST OR NORTHWEST LATER THIS WEEK AS 94W AND 95W
EVOLVE. MODELS STILL SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITY WITH THESE
SYSTEMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS DO EVENTUALLY
CONVERGE ON A BROADER...SINGLE CIRCULATION HEADING TOWARDS THE
MARIANAS BY THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE
REGION. IN THE LONG TERM...SOME MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER CIRCULATION
PASSING NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF MAJURO WHICH COULD BRING MORE WEATHER
TO THE MARSHALLS FOR THE WEEKEND.

HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR KOSRAE AND POHNPEI... AND
MAY BE NEEDED FOR CHUUK AND EVEN MAJURO LATER THIS WEEK. SURGING
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS SURF AND SEA CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF MICRONESIA THIS WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED ABOVE WITH EASTERN MICRONESIA BECAUSE
OF SIMILAR WEATHER.

12Z ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF KOROR
AND YAP TO JTWC INVEST 94W AT 9N147E THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST TO WEST
MONSOON WINDS ARE SURGING ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND JUST
SOUTH OF YAP EASTWARD TOWARD EASTERN MICRONESIA. THE MODELS STILL
DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ABOUT DEVELOPMENTS WITH THE CIRCULATION WEST OF
CHUUK...AND IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY DRIER TREND IN THE NEAR
TERM FOR YAP AND LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR KOROR...BUT WETTER
WEATHER WILL RETURN AS THE MONSOON SURGES WITH A STRENGTHENING
SYSTEM IN EASTERN MICRONESIA. A CIRCULATION WITHIN THE TROUGH
NORTHWEST OF KOROR COULD HELP REINFORCE SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE NEAR
TERM...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO GENERATE MUCH WEATHER AT KOROR OR YAP.
WILL MONITOR THIS FOR ANY CHANGES AND DEVELOPMENTS AS WELL.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR KOROR AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR YAP IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

KLEESCHULTE/W. AYDLETT





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 290704
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
504 PM CHST MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE MARIANAS. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS APPROACHING
THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS WITH CLOUD TOPS REACHING UP TO ABOUT
45KFT. FARTHER SOUTH...A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
MICRONESIA WITH CIRCULATIONS CENTERED NORTHWEST OF KOROR NEAR
10N131E...SOUTH OF GUAM NEAR 8N146E...AND NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
NEAR 9N161E.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS TO ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE MARIANAS. THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL SEE MUCH OF THE
SAME PATTERN OF RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS.
FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...DID NOT WANT TO JUMP ON
BOARD WITH ONE MODEL VS ANOTHER MODEL AND THROW IN A TROPICAL
STORM OR TYPHOON IN THE MARIANAS SINCE THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND TRAVEL PATH. AS A RESULT I BLENDED MODEL
WINDS IN A WAY TO INDICATE A CIRCULATION NEAR THE MARIANAS...BUT
NOT DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE MARIANAS JUST YET. WINDS TAKE ON A
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHWEST MONSOON FLOW OVER THE ISLANDS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...ADDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN MODEL GUIDANCE THE PAST 12 HOURS CONCERNING
INVEST 94W WEST OF CHUUK...AND INVEST 95W NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI.
BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE TWO CIRCULATIONS MERGING SOMEWHERE
NORTH OF POHNPEI AND CHUUK IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...
MODELS SHOW A WIDE RANGE IN TRAVEL PATH...RANGING FROM PASSING
OVER GUAM TO PASSING OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CNMI. THE EVENT TIMING
IS ALSO QUITE UNCERTAIN WITH ECMWF SHOWING CONDITIONS WORSENING
OVER THE MARIANAS LATE THIS WEEK COMPARED TO THE GFS MODEL`S
LATE-WEEKEND TIMING. MODEL GUIDANCE WILL IMPROVE IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS 95W GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATES AND BEGINS TO MOVE FROM ITS
SPOT NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREAS FROM CHUUK
TO POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. SATELLITE AND ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOW AN
ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS EASTWARD FROM A CIRCULATION (94W) WEST
OF CHUUK NEAR 8N146E THROUGH THE CIRCULATION (95W) NORTHEAST OF
POHNPEI AT 9N161E BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH A WEAK
CIRCULATION SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO AT 4N177E. WESTERLY MONSOON WINDS
ARE SURGING EASTWARD BELOW 7N-8N TO BEYOND THE DATE LINE. MODEL
SOLUTIONS STILL DIFFER...BUT GENERALLY INDICATE THE CIRCULATION
NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI WILL FURTHER DEVELOP AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTH
THEN NORTHWEST WHILE THE WHOLE MONSOON TROUGH LIFTS AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. THE SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PERSIST AT CHUUK...
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE MOST OF THIS WEEK AND THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE
VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE AT MAJURO THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN A VERY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT AT MAJURO IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK.

HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR KOSRAE AND POHNPEI...
AND MAY BE NEEDED FOR CHUUK AND EVEN MAJURO LATER THIS WEEK.
SURGING WESTERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS SURF AND SEA
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF MICRONESIA THIS WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED ABOVE WITH EASTERN MICRONESIA BECAUSE
OF SIMILAR WEATHER.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR KOROR AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR YAP LATER THIS WEEK. ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MONSOON
TROUGH RUNS ACROSS YAP STATE TO A CIRCULATION (94W) WEST OF CHUUK AT
ABOUT 8N146E. SOUTHWEST TO WEST MONSOON WINDS ARE SURGING ACROSS THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND EASTWARD TOWARD EASTERN MICRONESIA. THE MODELS
STILL IFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ABOUT DEVELOPMENTS WITH THE CIRCULATION
WEST OF CHUUK...AND IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE
COMING DAYS. THIS MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS YAP AND KOROR THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

W. AYDLETT/SIMPSON





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 282005
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
605 AM CHST MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS
MORNING. TWO TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ARE EVIDENT OVER MICRONESIA...
ONE CENTERED SOUTH OF GUAM NEAR 7N145E AND THE OTHER EAST OF
POHNPEI NEAR 7N161E.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. FRESHENED UP THE SWELL
AND WAVE GRIDS BUT OTHERWISE...MADE NO OTHER CHANGES. THE BIG
FORECAST QUESTION REMAINS...WHICH OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCES
OVER MICRONESIA WILL DEVELOP OR WILL BOTH DEVELOP...WHEN WILL
THEY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT AND WHERE WILL THEY GO. THERE REMAINS A
VERY LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS THE DEVELOPMENT...TRACK AND
INTENSITY IS SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT ON EVERY MODEL RUN. LATEST
GFS PREDICTS BOTH SYSTEMS WILL DEVELOP AND THEN MERGE OVER THE
NORTHERN MARIANAS WITH THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF GUAM MOVING SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD THEN RECURVING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARIANAS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS NOW SHOWING THAT THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF
GUAM WILL DEVELOP SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING A BIT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY THE EASTERNMOST SYSTEM. IT THEN PUSHES
THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE MARIANAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STORM NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. BOTH
SOLUTIONS SEEM RATHER UNLIKELY...BUT IT REMAINS LIKELY THAT GUAM
AND THE CNMI WILL SEE SOME TYPE OF AFFECT FROM THESE SYSTEMS LATE
IN THE WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM NEAR
CHUUK AND SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI...TO NORTH AND EAST OF KOSRAE...AND
SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO. THE MONSOON TROUGH AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED
CIRCULATIONS REMAIN THE FOCUS OF THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. OF COURSE...
THE MAIN FOCUS IS CENTERED ON JTWC INVEST AREA 95W CENTERED
NORTHWEST OF KOSRAE NEAR 8N160E. MODELS STILL SHOW GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION WITH THIS SYSTEM THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS THIS
HAPPENS...WEST MONSOONAL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE ACROSS POHNPEI
AND KOSRAE STATES WITH SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY PASSES SOUTH OF MAJURO...BUT WILL LIFT
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALLOWING DRIER WEATHER TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE MARSHALLS. AS IS THE CASE IN THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER SITUATION...MID AND LONG RANGE FORECAST IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE
FORECAST THAT WILL NEED FINE TUNING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR
MESOSCALE AND SHORT-TERM WEATHER CONDITIONS. REGARDLESS...EXPECT AN
ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF
KOSRAE. A SURF ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR POHNPEI BY TUESDAY.
SURGING WESTERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS SURF AND SEA CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF EASTERN MICRONESIA THIS WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST OF MINDANAO TO EAST OF CHUUK.
12Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF KOROR AND YAP...
AND JUST NORTH OR OVER WENO CHUUK. HEAVIEST WEATHER HAS REMAINED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH HEAVIEST SHOWERS JUST SOUTH
OF CHUUK...SOUTHEAST OF YAP AND JUST SOUTH OF KOROR. MODELS SUGGEST
THE TROUGH WILL HOVER IN PLACE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAINTAINING
SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AT EACH LOCATION.
SIMILARLY...WEST MONSOON WINDS WILL SURGE ACROSS THE REGION.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EVOLUTION OF A COUPLE CIRCULATIONS WITHIN
THE TROUGH...ONE LOCATED NORTHWEST OF PALAU...AND THE OTHER...JTWC
INVEST AREA 94W...LOCATED WEST OF CHUUK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
THESE AREAS EVOLVE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. ALSO...ALL THREE FORECAST
POINTS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE SURGING MONSOON WINDS
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF AND SEA CONDITIONS AS THIS WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

KLEESCHULTE/M. AYDLETT





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 280650
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
450 PM CHST SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALL THAT IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN INCREASE TO SHOWERS
AND WINDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHEAST TRADE-WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST MID-WEEK. A WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE MAY INCREASE
CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. INCREASED THE PERIOD OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST TO THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BECAUSE OF THE
APPROACHING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY DATA SHOWED AN EAST SWELL OVER THE MARIANAS. THIS SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. A SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ALSO
IN THE FORECAST AS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IS
PUSHING WAVES IN THIS DIRECTION. COMBINED SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
4 TO 5 FEET INCREASING BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME 6 TO 8
FOOT COMBINED SEAS ARE WHAT IS PREDICTED FOR THE MARIANAS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. AS THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN
TO THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SEAS COULD BE HIGHER.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS MICRONESIA SOUTH OF
10N. TWO CIRCULATIONS COULD BE FOUND ON THE TROUGH...ONE SOUTH OF
GUAM NEAR 7N145E AND THE OTHER NEAR POHNPEI NEAR 7N160E. MODELS
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON WHAT WILL BECOME OF THESE CIRCULATIONS.
EVEN THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS SEEM TO DISAGREE THEMSELVES AS THE
PREDICTIONS CHANGE FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN. AT TIMES THEY ARE
INTERESTED IN THE POHNPEI CIRCULATION THEN THEY SWITCH TO BEING
INTERESTED IN THE CIRCULATION SOUTH OF GUAM. A FEW MODELS HAVE THE
TWO CIRCULATIONS COMBINING INTO ONE. AT THIS TIME THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST PAST WEDNESDAY. ALL THAT PROBABLY CAN
BE AGREED ON AT THIS TIME IS THAT THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WILL BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE MARIANAS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE LOOPS AND ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOW A MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS
STRETCHED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CIRCULATION
(JTWC INVEST AREA 95W) EAST OF POHNPEI WHILE A POSSIBLE
CIRCULATION SEEMS TO BE FORMING SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO NEAR 4N177E.
DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE VARIED...EVEN FROM RUN-TO-RUN.
AT THIS TIME... THE CIRCULATION EAST OF POHNPEI IS EXPECTED TO
FURTHER DEVELOP AND MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD NORTHWEST WHILE THE WHOLE
MONSOON TROUGH LIFTS AT LEAST SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. INCLEMENT AND
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PERSIST AT KOSRAE AND POHNPEI MOST OF THIS
WEEK. AT MAJURO...THE MAIN THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AT MAJURO IS EXPECTED
LATER IN THE WEEK.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR KOSRAE...AND IT MAY BE NEEDED
FOR POHNPEI BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. SURGING WESTERLY WINDS WILL
CAUSE HAZARDOUS SURF AND SEA CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
MICRONESIA THIS WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
ASCAT SHOWS A MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM ACROSS YAP STATE THROUGH A
CIRCULATION WEST OF CHUUK AT ABOUT 7N145E ON ACROSS WENO CHUUK
INTO EASTERN MICRONESIA. A GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE
CIRCULATION...JTWC INVEST AREA 94W...IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEAR
TERM. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE LONGER TERM
FORECAST. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST SINCE MUCH
DEPENDS ON DEVELOPMENTS OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA IN THE COMING
DAYS. ALSO...ALL THREE FORECAST POINTS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
IN CASE SURGING MONSOON WINDS PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF AND SEA
CONDITIONS AS THIS WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/SIMPSON





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 272013
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
613 AM CHST SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MARIANAS. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MICRONESIA ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACTIVE
MONSOON TROUGH AND A PAIR OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY CENTERED
NEAR KOSRAE AT 4N162E...WILL AFFECT THE MARIANAS OVER THE WEEKEND
OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY...BUT MORE LIKELY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE MARIANAS. MODEL GUIDANCE
VARIES CONSIDERABLY ON STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. LATEST
GFS GUIDANCE TAKES THE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN CNMI AS A TYPHOON
ON SUNDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IT NEAR GUAM AND ROTA AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR POSSIBLY A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY. DUE TO
THE LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT
OF THE DISTURBANCE...CHOSE TO MAINTAIN PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL THE
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT BECOME MORE PREDICTABLE.

&&

MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. COMBINED SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FEET WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO BETWEEN
6 AND 8 FEET BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
OVER MICRONESIA.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE EASTERN END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS
OCCURRING NORTH AND EAST OF MAJURO. MODELS KEEP THIS ACTIVITY
NORTHEAST OF MAJURO THROUGH MONDAY WHILE KEEPING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH 95W TO THE WEST. BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXIST MONDAY NIGHT WHEN STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP SOUTH OF
95W THAT ACT TO INCREASE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS.

SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W CENTERED NEAR
KOSRAE AT 4N162E CONTINUES TO DISPLAY SIGNS OF BETTER ORGANIZATION
OVER KOSRAE STATE. A 24 HOUR PRESSURE DROP OF 2 MILLIBARS AT
KOSRAE...BETTER CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND ABSENCE OF STRONG WIND
SHEAR INDICATE 95W WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH MONDAY.
MODELS STILL CURVE THE DISTURBANCE NORTHWEST BRINGING THE CENTER
NORTH OF POHNPEI BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN STILL EXISTS FOR KOSRAE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND ON POHNPEI TONIGHT. A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THIS WEEK EVEN AS 95W EXITS POHNPEI STATE LATER IN THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL EXTENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
DEPEND ON THE INTENSIFICATION AND TRACK OF 95W OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS KOSRAE WATERS WITH
KOSRAE REPORTING CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS
PRIMARILY SOUTH OF KOSRAE WATERS. HOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
AND MOVES NORTHWESTWARD IT WILL BRING THE STRONGER WINDS OVER KOSRAE
WATERS TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...SOUTHWEST SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL
STEADILY BUILD TODAY CAUSING SURF TO BECOME HAZARDOUS ON WEST FACING
REEFS OF KOSRAE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON FOR KOSRAE AND POSSIBLY POHNPEI
LATER THIS WEEK...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF 95W
THROUGH FSM.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING INCLEMENT WEATHER TO
CHUUK WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND SUBSEQUENT AREA OF HEAVIEST
RAIN EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTH INTO CHUUK WATERS MONDAY. THE WORST
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH 95W IS PROGGED TO PASS NORTH OF CHUUK
LATER IN THE WEEK BUT PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE REGION.

MEANWHILE...YAP AND KOROR WILL EXPERIENCE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TODAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH
LOCATIONS. A WEAK MONSOON SURGE DEPICTED NICELY IN SCATTEROMETER
DATA IS ONGOING ACROSS PALAU. THE NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT OF THE
STRONGER WINDS WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE GREATEST LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL SET UP OVER PALAU AND YAP STATE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A MORE NORTHEASTWARD
POSITION OF THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL FORCING OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS.
THIS MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO YAP BY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
ALLOWING KOROR TO DRY OUT QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...WHICH IS
TUESDAY. MAINTAINED SCATTERED SHOWERS AT KOROR THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL
A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS CAN BE MADE.

SOUTHWEST MONSOON FLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS PALAU IS PROGGED TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS MAY CAUSE SURF TO RISE TO
HAZARDOUS LEVELS ON KOROR MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

KLEESCHULTE/WILLIAMS





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 271224 CCA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
624 PM CHST SAT JUN 27 2015

CORRECTED DISTURBANCE LOCATION

.SYNOPSIS...
RADAR SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE MARIANAS. WV
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOW VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OVER THE MARIANAS DOWN TO ABOUT 18000 FEET.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EASTWARD TO ABOUT 152E. THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 7N REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W NEAR 5N162E THE DOMINANT FEATURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AND DISCUSSION. IN THE NEAR TERM...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
AROUND THE MARIANAS. AFTER WEDNESDAY...MUCH DEPENDS ON WHAT
DEVELOPS OUT OF 95W.

BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE TRADES AND 4-5 FT SEAS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...WITH A LOW RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W WAS CENTERED
NEAR KOSRAE AT 5N162E. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING GOOD INDICATIONS OF
FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. MOST OF THE MODELS TRACK IT NORTHWEST TOWARD
THE MARIANAS REACHING THE MARIANAS TOWARD THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK. HOWEVER THE NAVGEM MODEL IS STARTING TO BACK OFF FROM
AGREEMENT WITH OTHER MODELS AND 95W MAY HAVE DIFFICULTY BREAKING
AWAY FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH. PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON THE WFO GUAM WEB
PAGE REGARDING THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MICRONESIA
TO A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR KOSRAE. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS
CLOSE TO POHNPEI AND THIS WILL KEEP WINDS VARIABLE TONIGHT THERE.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PULL NORTH...AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
SUNDAY.

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR KOSRAE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHWEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF 10N AND
NORTH OF KOSRAE BY TUESDAY. THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
INCREASE ACROSS POHNPEI AND KOSRAE BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING 10 TO 20 KTS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE WINDS COULD
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER...ESPECIALLY AT KOSRAE IF THE DISTURBANCE
BECOMES MORE INTENSE THAN EXPECTED. THE PROXIMITY OF KOSRAE TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
NIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS KOSRAE. CONVERGING WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO POHNPEI
SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND DISTURBANCE WILL
REMAIN WEST OF MAJURO. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE TROUGH WILL
HOWEVER GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAJURO
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

DUE TO INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS WITH A LONG FETCH ACROSS
MICRONESIA...SEAS COULD BECOME HIGH ENOUGH TO GENERATE HAZARDOUS
SURF THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY AT KOSRAE AND
POSSIBLY AT POHNPEI. SEAS AND WINDS COULD ALSO BECOME HAZARDOUS TO
OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT NEAR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS WESTERN MICRONESIA THROUGH A
CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR 7N145E AND CONTINUES TO THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE NEAR KOSRAE. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF PALAU
WHICH WILL CAUSE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PREVAIL THERE. THE
COMBINATION OF THE CIRCULATION NEAR 7N145E AND THE DEVELOPING
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR KOSRAE WILL PRODUCE A SURGE IN THE
MONSOON FLOW ACROSS PALAU AND YAP. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS AT PALAU
TO BE BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KTS THIS WEEKEND INCREASING MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS ACROSS YAP WILL INCREASE TUESDAY. CONVERGENCE
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO PALAU TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AT YAP.

THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CHUUK TO KEEP WINDS
VARIABLE THERE TONIGHT. AS THE DISTURBANCE NEAR KOSRAE MOVES
NORTHWARD IT WILL DRAG THE MONSOON TROUGH NORTHWARD WHICH WILL
INTRODUCE SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS CHUUK SUNDAY. WITH THE TROUGH
NORTH OF CHUUK THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. AS WITH PALAU AND YAP...A SURGE IN THE MONSOON CAUSED
BY THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL ELEVATE WINDS ACROSS
THESE PLACES TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. CONVERGENCE SOUTH
OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO CHUUK MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

DEVITA/ZIOBRO





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 270824
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
624 PM CHST SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RADAR SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE MARIANAS. WV
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOW VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OVER THE MARIANAS DOWN TO ABOUT 18000 FEET.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EASTWARD TO ABOUT 152E. THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 7N REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W NEAR 7N145E THE DOMINANT FEATURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AND DISCUSSION. IN THE NEAR TERM...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
AROUND THE MARIANAS. AFTER WEDNESDAY...MUCH DEPENDS ON WHAT
DEVELOPS OUT OF 95W.

BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE TRADES AND 4-5 FT SEAS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...WITH A LOW RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W WAS CENTERED
NEAR KOSRAE AT 5N162E. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING GOOD INDICATIONS OF
FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. MOST OF THE MODELS TRACK IT NORTHWEST TOWARD
THE MARIANAS REACHING THE MARIANAS TOWARD THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK. HOWEVER THE NAVGEM MODEL IS STARTING TO BACK OFF FROM
AGREEMENT WITH OTHER MODELS AND 95W MAY HAVE DIFFICULTY BREAKING
AWAY FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH. PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON THE WFO GUAM WEB
PAGE REGARDING THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MICRONESIA
TO A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR KOSRAE. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS
CLOSE TO POHNPEI AND THIS WILL KEEP WINDS VARIABLE TONIGHT THERE.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PULL NORTH...AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
SUNDAY.

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR KOSRAE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHWEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF 10N AND
NORTH OF KOSRAE BY TUESDAY. THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
INCREASE ACROSS POHNPEI AND KOSRAE BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING 10 TO 20 KTS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE WINDS COULD
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER...ESPECIALLY AT KOSRAE IF THE DISTURBANCE
BECOMES MORE INTENSE THAN EXPECTED. THE PROXIMITY OF KOSRAE TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
NIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS KOSRAE. CONVERGING WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO POHNPEI
SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND DISTURBANCE WILL
REMAIN WEST OF MAJURO. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE TROUGH WILL
HOWEVER GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAJURO
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

DUE TO INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS WITH A LONG FETCH ACROSS
MICRONESIA...SEAS COULD BECOME HIGH ENOUGH TO GENERATE HAZARDOUS
SURF THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY AT KOSRAE AND
POSSIBLY AT POHNPEI. SEAS AND WINDS COULD ALSO BECOME HAZARDOUS TO
OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT NEAR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS WESTERN MICRONESIA THROUGH A
CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR 7N145E AND CONTINUES TO THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE NEAR KOSRAE. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF PALAU
WHICH WILL CAUSE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PREVAIL THERE. THE
COMBINATION OF THE CIRCULATION NEAR 7N145E AND THE DEVELOPING
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR KOSRAE WILL PRODUCE A SURGE IN THE
MONSOON FLOW ACROSS PALAU AND YAP. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS AT PALAU
TO BE BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KTS THIS WEEKEND INCREASING MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS ACROSS YAP WILL INCREASE TUESDAY. CONVERGENCE
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO PALAU TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AT YAP.

THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CHUUK TO KEEP WINDS
VARIABLE THERE TONIGHT. AS THE DISTURBANCE NEAR KOSRAE MOVES
NORTHWARD IT WILL DRAG THE MONSOON TROUGH NORTHWARD WHICH WILL
INTRODUCE SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS CHUUK SUNDAY. WITH THE TROUGH
NORTH OF CHUUK THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. AS WITH PALAU AND YAP...A SURGE IN THE MONSOON CAUSED
BY THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL ELEVATE WINDS ACROSS
THESE PLACES TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. CONVERGENCE SOUTH
OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO CHUUK MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

DEVITA/ZIOBRO





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