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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 200736
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
358 PM CHST MON OCT 20 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ALMOST NO SHOWERS IN THE MARIANAS WATERS. IT ALSO
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM
WATERS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK CHAOTIC FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH MANY SMALL TROUGHS
AND RIDGES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHTER THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAIN EVENT WILL BE SWELL FROM A STORM NORTH OF
WAKE WHICH HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST 4 DAYS. THIS MEANS
THE WINDS HAVE GREAT PERSISTENCE AND A FAIRLY LONG FETCH OF 1200
NAUTICAL MILES. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE WIND SPEED OF 30
KNOTS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SURF FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
ONCE IT ARRIVES AROUND WEDNESDAY. INHERITED GRIDS HANDLED THIS WELL
SO NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A CIRCULATION COULD BE FOUND NORTHEAST OF KOSRAE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS KEEP THE CIRCULATION WEAK AND AGREE ON PUSHING THIS FEATURE
SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY WASH IT OUT BY WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TO LIGHT WESTERLIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS POHNPEI AND KOSRAE
THROUGH MID WEEK. EAST TRADE-WINDS WILL RETURN TO THESE TWO AREAS BY
THURSDAY.

A SURFACE TROUGH...NOW EAST OF THE DATELINE...WILL PUSH WEST. THE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEAK BUT WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL
BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAJURO WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CONVERGENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AT MAJURO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS WESTERN MICRONESIA NORTH OF 10N
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS AFTERNOON NORTH WINDS PREVAILED AT
PALAU AND YAP WITH WEST WINDS AT CHUUK. LITTLE WILL CHANGE TROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL DECAY AND EAST TRADE-WINDS WILL RETURN TO
WESTERN MICRONESIA THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS KEEP THINGS
TRANQUIL AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/ZIOBRO










000
FXPQ60 PGUM 200736
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
358 PM CHST MON OCT 20 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ALMOST NO SHOWERS IN THE MARIANAS WATERS. IT ALSO
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM
WATERS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK CHAOTIC FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH MANY SMALL TROUGHS
AND RIDGES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHTER THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAIN EVENT WILL BE SWELL FROM A STORM NORTH OF
WAKE WHICH HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST 4 DAYS. THIS MEANS
THE WINDS HAVE GREAT PERSISTENCE AND A FAIRLY LONG FETCH OF 1200
NAUTICAL MILES. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE WIND SPEED OF 30
KNOTS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SURF FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
ONCE IT ARRIVES AROUND WEDNESDAY. INHERITED GRIDS HANDLED THIS WELL
SO NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A CIRCULATION COULD BE FOUND NORTHEAST OF KOSRAE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS KEEP THE CIRCULATION WEAK AND AGREE ON PUSHING THIS FEATURE
SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY WASH IT OUT BY WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TO LIGHT WESTERLIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS POHNPEI AND KOSRAE
THROUGH MID WEEK. EAST TRADE-WINDS WILL RETURN TO THESE TWO AREAS BY
THURSDAY.

A SURFACE TROUGH...NOW EAST OF THE DATELINE...WILL PUSH WEST. THE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEAK BUT WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL
BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAJURO WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CONVERGENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AT MAJURO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS WESTERN MICRONESIA NORTH OF 10N
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS AFTERNOON NORTH WINDS PREVAILED AT
PALAU AND YAP WITH WEST WINDS AT CHUUK. LITTLE WILL CHANGE TROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL DECAY AND EAST TRADE-WINDS WILL RETURN TO
WESTERN MICRONESIA THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS KEEP THINGS
TRANQUIL AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/ZIOBRO










000
FXPQ60 PGUM 200558
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
358 PM CHST MON OCT 20 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ALMOST NO SHOWERS IN THE MARIANAS WATERS. IT
ALSO SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH OF
GUAM WATERS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO
15 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK CHAOTIC FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH MANY SMALL TROUGHS
AND RIDGES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHTER THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAIN EVENT WILL BE SWELL FROM A STORM NORTH
OF WAKE WHICH HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST 4 DAYS. THIS
MEANS THE WINDS HAVE GREAT PERSISTENCE AND A FAIRLY LONG FETCH OF
1200 NAUTICAL MILES. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE WIND SPEED OF
30 KNOTS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SURF FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK ONCE IT ARRIVES AROUND WEDNESDAY. INHERITED GRIDS HANDLED
THIS WELL SO NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
WILL BE ADDED LATER.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
WILL BE ADDED LATER.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/ZIOBRO







000
FXPQ60 PGUM 191948
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
548 AM CHST MON OCT 20 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON TROUGH PASSES SOUTH OF GUAM NEAR 11N. LATEST ASCAT
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MILD TRADE-WIND SURGE SLIDING SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE SAIPAN AND TINIAN ZONES. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SURGE...OVER THE GUAM AND ROTA ZONES. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS LOOM ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MILD TRADE-WIND SURGE IS CREATING INCREASED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OVER THE ROTA AND GUAM ZONES...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR ALL ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON...SO BEST CHANCES FOR ISLAND THUNDER NEAR GUAM WILL BE
IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE SURGE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE DEEPER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS TRADES VEER TO SOUTHEAST.
MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MCS DEVELOPMENT.
RIGHT NOW...TUTT IS LOCATED TOO FAR WEST OF THE FORECAST ZONES TO
ACT AS A FAVORABLE INFLUENCE ON DEEP CONVECTION. IF TUTT SHIFTS
FARTHER EAST...ISOLATED THUNDER MAY BE NEEDED IN THE FORECAST FOR
LATER THIS WEEK. DRIER NORTHEAST TRADES APPEAR TO BE IN STORE
ONCE AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
COMBINED SEAS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 3 TO 4-FOOT RANGE. LATEST
ASCAT/WINDSAT ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF NEAR GALE NORTHEAST WINDS
HAS FORMED SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN. LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THIS FETCH
GENERATION REGION WILL BEGIN ARRIVING ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. LONG PERIOD SWELL DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HIGH SURF...BUT IF THE FETCH GENERATION
REGION PROVES TO BE MORE POTENT THAN PRESENTLY THOUGHT...HIGH
SURF WOULD BE POSSIBLE ON NORTH-FACING REEFS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK CIRCULATION CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF MAJURO AT 5N170E
CONTINUES TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
KOSRAE STATE AND PARTS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WERE SEEN ON KOSRAE EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS.
THIS FEATURE IS DISSIPATING NOW WITH CLOUD DEBRIS DRIFTING
TOWARDS POHNPEI. ANOTHER MCS IS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF KWAJALEIN
NEAR THE CENTER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SIMILAR DEVELOPMENTS OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS OR SO WITH THIS FEATURE IN CASE SHORT-
TERM UPDATES ARE NEEDED. OTHER THAN THIS POSSIBILITY...MODELS
MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION FROM MAJURO TO POHNPEI. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS IT HEADS WEST.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ACROSS CHUUK AND YAP
STATES...AS WELL AS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU THIS MORNING. A WEAK
TROUGH STRETCHES FROM WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE THREE
FORECAST LOCATIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SEEN ALONG THE TROUGH. GFS GENERALLY MAINTAINS A DRY BIAS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT ECMWF SUGGESTS A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE
AROUND MIDWEEK AS THE TROUGH SINKS SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/M. AYDLETT







000
FXPQ60 PGUM 190815 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
610 PM CHST SUN OCT 19 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS
WATERS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS NORTHEAST WINDS OF 6 TO 9
KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GFS40 IS JUST BRINGING SMALL SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE FEATURES ARE NO MORE THAN 1 GRID-POINT
WIDE...SO IT IS DIFFICULT FOR THE MODELS TO LOCATE THEM...LET
ALONE TIME THEM CORRECTLY. NEITHER ARE THEY SHOWING UP THAT WELL
ON SATELLITE. SO...IF THEY EVEN EXIST AT ALL...THEY ARE NOT REALLY
WORTH DRAWING INTO THE FORECAST. THEREFORE WE HAVE A RATHER BROAD
BRUSHED FORECAST INSTEAD. ONLY SMALL FEATURE IS ISLAND SHOWERS OR
THUNDER MONDAY SOUTHWEST GUAM. THIS WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST
AND IT IS PROGGED BY THE ADVANCED RESEARCH WRF AND THE NON-
HYDROSTATIC MESOSCALE MODEL...THE ONLY TWO MODELS IN THIS AREA
THAT HAVE A HIGH ENOUGH RESOLUTION TO ACTUALLY SEE THERE IS AN
ISLAND CALLED GUAM. RETAINED THIS ISLAND CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW IT TO BE LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SEAS WILL RISE A LITTLE TUESDAY NIGHT...REACHING 3 TO 5
FEET WITH PERHAPS A FEW 6 FOOT VALUES. SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY NEAR THE 3 TO 5 FOOT LEVEL. NO ADVISORIES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SURFACE RIDGING SOUTH OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE MARIANA ISLANDS
IS GOING TO MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS CHUUK AND POHNPEI UNTIL
MIDWEEK. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD CIRCULATION IS JUST SOUTH OF MAJURO
AT 5N172E. CONVERGING WINDS WEST OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KOSRAE THRU MONDAY NIGHT. FOR
MAJURO...WEAKER SOUTHEASTERLIES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
COULD SPARK OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE MONDAY EVENING. AS
THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IT
COULD EVENTUALLY AFFECT POHNPEI AND CHUUK NEAR MIDWEEK. ON THE OTHER
HAND...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A
SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR KOSRAE AND MAJURO INSTEAD. TOWARD
THE WEEKEND...A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY UPSTREAM EAST OF
THE DATE LINE NEAR 165W COULD BE THE NEXT SHOWER MAKER FOR MAJURO
AND KOSRAE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
REASONING FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST IS INCLUDED WITHIN THE EASTERN
MICRONESIA DISCUSSION ABOVE DUE TO A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CAN BE SEEN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST
SOUTHWEST OF KOROR NEAR 5N133E THIS EVENING. MODEST CONVERGING
SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH WILL TRIGGER
A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE CAPITAL THRU MONDAY EVENING. FOR YAP...LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL THRU MONDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH IS DEVELOPING ALONG 11N JUST NORTH OF BOTH
LOCATIONS. THIS FEATURE COULD START TO INTRODUCE GENTLE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS KOROR AND YAP ON TUESDAY. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...THIS MIGHT GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY THRU MIDWEEK. TOWARD
THE WEEKEND...THE WEAK MONSOON TROUGH SHOULD HAVE LIFTED FARTHER
NORTH OF THE REGION. IN RESPONSE...PLEASANT WEATHER COULD RETURN TO
BOTH LOCALES.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/CHAN







000
FXPQ60 PGUM 190642
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
442 PM CHST SUN OCT 19 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS
WATERS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS NORTHEAST WINDS OF 6 TO 9
KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GFS40 IS JUST BRINGING SMALL SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE FEATURES ARE NO MORE THAN 1 GRID-POINT
WIDE...SO IT IS DIFFICULT FOR THE MODELS TO LOCATE THEM...LET
ALONE TIME THEM CORRECTLY. NEITHER ARE THEY SHOWING UP THAT WELL
ON SATELLITE. SO...IF THEY EVEN EXIST AT ALL...THEY ARE NOT REALLY
WORTH DRAWING INTO THE FORECAST. THEREFORE WE HAVE A RATHER BROAD
BRUSHED FORECAST INSTEAD. ONLY SMALL FEATURE IS ISLAND SHOWERS OR
THUNDER MONDAY SOUTHWEST GUAM. THIS WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST
AND IT IS PROGGED BY THE ADVANCED RESEARCH WRF AND THE NON-
HYDROSTATIC MESOSCALE MODEL...THE ONLY TWO MODELS IN THIS AREA
THAT HAVE A HIGH ENOUGH RESOLUTION TO ACTUALLY SEE THERE IS AN
ISLAND CALLED GUAM. RETAINED THIS ISLAND CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW IT TO BE LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SEAS WILL RISE A LITTLE TUESDAY NIGHT...REACHING 3 TO 5
FEET WITH PERHAPS A FEW 6 FOOT VALUES. SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY NEAR THE 3 TO 5 FOOT LEVEL. NO ADVISORIES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
WILL BE SENT LATER.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
WILL BE SENT LATER.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO






000
FXPQ60 PGUM 182021
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
621 AM CHST SUN OCT 19 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
LATEST ASCAT ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ELONGATED BUT WEAK CIRCULATION
CENTERED EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM NEAR 12N149E. WEAK WIND REGIME IN
THE VICINITY OF THE CIRCULATION IS PRODUCING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LATEST SOUNDING AND VAD WIND PROFILE SHOW
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND OVER GUAM THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS CONTINUITY WITH A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
ADDED ISLAND THUNDER FOR GUAM MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOWER THAN FOR TODAY AS DEPTH OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE LESS. RELOADED WINDS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY FROM
THE ECMWF TO REFLECT PASSAGE OF THE CIRCULATION SOUTH OF GUAM
TODAY AND TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST STILL ANTICIPATES A
RETURN TO A DRIER TRADE-WIND PATTERN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE MONSOON TROUGH WEAKENS AND RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH
BUOY READINGS AROUND 4 FT. LOW RIP CURRENT RISK SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN LONG PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CAUSE
SEAS AND SURF TO BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ACCORDINGLY...
HAVE ADDED THESE SWELL TO THE MARINE GRIDS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. NORTHEAST SWELL COULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SURF AT
ADVISORY LEVELS ON NORTH FACING REEFS...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO
TELL IF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND WILL
BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE SWELL HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS SURF.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS FOR MAJURO TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BUT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENT WEST WINDS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS ENCROACHING ON THE EASTERN WATERS OF
KOSRAE BUT MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIMINISHING
SHOWER COVERAGE BEFORE THE CONVECTION REACHES KOSRAE TODAY. THE
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK BUT
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSENT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON SHOWED ISLAND CONVECTION NEAR POHNPEI
SO INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS. SEAS WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN THROUGH
MIDWEEK ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
VERY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CHUUK STATE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO MAJOR WEATHER FEATURES WILL ADVECT OR
DEVELOP IN THE STATE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEK. A SIMILAR
PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON YAP AND KOROR THROUGH THE WEEK. LIGHT
WINDS AND QUIET SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
MODELS SHOW A TRADE-WIND PATTERN TRYING TO RETURN BY THE WEEKEND
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS RETURNING TO THE REGION.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/WILLIAMS







000
FXPQ60 PGUM 180724 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
525 PM CHST SAT OCT 18 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT
ACROSS THE MARIANAS. PATCHES OF CONVECTION IN THE REGION ARE
RANDOM AND DISORGANIZED. ISLAND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
EARLIER OVER CENTRAL GUAM HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND WEAKENED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST...AS OUR PATTERN OF LIGHT
WINDS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A
WHILE. MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD END THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING ON MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISLAND
THUNDERSTORM OVER GUAM IN LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE LEFT THAT POSSIBILITY OUT FOR NOW PENDING A BETTER IDEA OF
WINDS AND MOISTURE ON MONDAY. GFS KEEPS THE MARIANAS PRETTY DRY IN
THE NEXT WEEK...WITH ONLY ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH INDICATED
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SETTLE INTO THE 3-4 FT RANGE TONIGHT AND FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS BEFORE POSSIBLY RISING A BIT LATE NEXT WEEK. SHOULD BE A LOW
RIP RISK FOR A WHILE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EASTERN MICRONESIAN FORECAST AND DISCUSSION.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
CIRCULATION NEAR MAJURO WEAKENING AND THE MODELS INDICATE THE
CIRCULATION WILL DEGRADE TO A TROUGH AND CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH THE MARSHALLS. AT THE PRESENT TIME A RIDGE IS
DOMINATING KOSRAE AND POHNPEI WEATHER...AND A RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED
AT KOSRAE AND MAJURO AND A DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST AT POHNPEI.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE PUSHED WEST OF
CHUUK LAST NIGHT. NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AT CHUUK THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK. FORECAST FOR YAP REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED. YAP RECEIVED 0.27 INCHES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND IS ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A MONSOON TROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER TONIGHT...YAP
IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR THE TROUGH BUT ON THE DRY SOUTH SIDE OF THE
TROUGH FOR A FEW DAYS. KOROR...ON THE OTHER HAND...IS PROGGED TO BE
IN LIGHT WINDS SOUTH OF THE TROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND VERY
CLOSE TO A RIDGE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA










000
FXPQ60 PGUM 180501
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
301 PM CHST SAT OCT 18 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT
ACROSS THE MARIANAS. PATCHES OF CONVECTION IN THE REGION ARE
RANDOM AND DISORGANIZED. ISLAND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS DEVELOPED
EARLIER OVER CENTRAL GUAM HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND WEAKENED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST...AS OUR PATTERN OF LIGHT
WINDS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A
WHILE. MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD END THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING ON MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISLAND
THUNDERSTORM OVER GUAM IN LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE LEFT THAT POSSIBILITY OUT FOR NOW PENDING A BETTER IDEA OF
WINDS AND MOISTURE ON MONDAY. GFS KEEPS THE MARIANAS PRETTY DRY IN
THE NEXT WEEK...WITH ONLY ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH INDICATED
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SETTLE INTO THE 3-4 FT RANGE TONIGHT AND FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS BEFORE POSSIBLY RISING A BIT LATE NEXT WEEK. SHOULD BE A LOW
RIP RISK FOR A WHILE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
WILL BE ADDED WHEN AVAILABLE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
WILL BE ADDED WHEN AVAILABLE.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA







000
FXPQ60 PGUM 171937
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
537 AM CHST SAT OCT 18 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
WEAK CIRCULATIONS ARE CENTERED NORTH OF KOROR...JUST EAST OF THE
MARIANAS AND SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. RIDGING BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS
HAS SET UP A WEAK PATTERN OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE REGION
SURROUNDING THE MARIANAS. A TUTT IS ALIGNED TO THE WEST OF THE
MARIANAS ALONG 140E.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST REASONING OR GRIDS. PROXIMITY
OF TUTT AND TROUGHING BETWEEN THE CIRCULATIONS IN THE VICINITY
WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INGREDIENTS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
NOT ENOUGH FORCING FOR AN MCS CAPABLE OF PROVIDING SCATTERED
SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL EXPECT BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO USHER IN A DRIER TRADE-WIND PATTERN BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
MARIANAS BUOYS AND LATEST ALTIMETRY SHOW COMBINED SEAS SUBSIDING
INTO THE 4 TO 5-FOOT RANGE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SUBSIDING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH RIP CURRENT RISK POSSIBLY
FALLING TO LOW ON MONDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES JUST SOUTH
OF MAJURO ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS. MODELS INDICATE A BROAD AND WEAK CIRCULATION
WILL PASS OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND AND PROVIDE
A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWER COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
SCATTERED AS THE REGION IS ENTRENCHED IN A NEGATIVE MJO PHASE
COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW. SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS. THE WEAK CIRCULATION WILL MOVE TOWARDS KOSRAE. WEATHER
IMPACTS ON KOSRAE SHOULD BE MINIMAL SO ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE
WAS MAINTAINED IN THE KOSRAE FORECAST TROUGH DAY 5. A LONG TERM
DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER POHNPEI AS IT REMAINS BENEATH
RIDGING AND A LIGHT WIND REGIME.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE
SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK HAS PUSHED WEST OF CHUUK OVERNIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS NO MAJOR
WEATHER FEATURES ARE PROGGED TO AFFECT CHUUK THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. FORECAST FOR YAP REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. A LINE
OF SHOWERS IS OBSERVED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF YAP THAT EXTENDS
TO THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. MODELS SHOW
CONVECTION PUSHING TO THE WEST OF YAP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER TO RETURN TO YAP TONIGHT WHILE
KOROR WILL REMAIN IN QUIET PATTERN BENEATH DEEP LAYER RIDGING
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

MCELROY/WILLIAMS








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