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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 042152
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
752 AM CHST THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN THE
MARIANAS WATERS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 6 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR.
THE WEATHER BALLOON FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING SHOWS THE WINDS TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOVE 16 THOUSAND FEET THEN TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST ABOVE 28 THOUSAND FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AT LEAST LOOK PRETTY DRY. ANOTHER TRADE-WIND
DISTURBANCE COULD COME THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...
RAINFALL SHOULD BE POSITIVELY MINIMAL. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL EDGE
UPWARD TO BETWEEN 6 AND 8 FEET THIS WEEKEND...THEN DIMINISH BACK
TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEY COULD THEN DIMINISH
FURTHER LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THIS SATURDAY. FIRE CREWS
SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THIS SITUATION...AS IT WILL NOT TAKE
MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN WIND TO CAUSE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO ARISE IN A HURRY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SLIGHTLY DRIER MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE GOING TO MAINTAIN RELATIVELY
FAIR WEATHER NEAR CHUUK THRU FRIDAY...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THRU
TONIGHT. FARTHER EAST...A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS SLOWLY PULLING
WEST OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS THIS MORNING. RESIDUAL CONVERGENCE WILL
KEEP THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MAJURO UNTIL LATER THIS
EVENING. BY FRIDAY MORNING...AN ISOLATED TRADE-WIND SHOWER REGIME
SHOULD RETURN TO THE CAPITAL. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE SAME TRADE
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERY WEATHER TO KOSRAE AND POHNPEI ON
FRIDAY...POSSIBLY CHUUK THIS WEEKEND. THE LEADING EDGE OF A FRESH
TRADE-WIND SURGE IS VISIBLE ON THE LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE IMAGERY...
EAST OF THE DATE LINE NEAR 175W. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING TRADE-
WIND CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 3N AND 8N FROM 180 EASTWARD TO BEYOND 155W.
AS THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE SLIDES TOWARD THE MARSHALL ISLANDS THIS
WEEKEND...EXPECT CONVECTION TO SPREAD OVER MAJURO. IT WILL ALSO
REACH KOSRAE AND POHNPEI EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PROLONG UNSETTLED
WEATHER THERE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
REASONING FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST CAN BE FOUND UNDER EASTERN
MICRONESIA ABOVE.

GENTLE TRADE WINDS AND DRY AIR ABOVE 750MB WILL KEEP SHOWERS AT BAY
NEAR KOROR THRU TONIGHT AND YAP UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...
MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD
SLOWLY ADVECT MOISTURE FROM NEAR THE EQUATOR NORTHWARD TOWARD BOTH
LOCATIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...IT WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF TRADE-WIND SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/CHAN





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 042152
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
752 AM CHST THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN THE
MARIANAS WATERS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 6 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR.
THE WEATHER BALLOON FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING SHOWS THE WINDS TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOVE 16 THOUSAND FEET THEN TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST ABOVE 28 THOUSAND FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AT LEAST LOOK PRETTY DRY. ANOTHER TRADE-WIND
DISTURBANCE COULD COME THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...
RAINFALL SHOULD BE POSITIVELY MINIMAL. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL EDGE
UPWARD TO BETWEEN 6 AND 8 FEET THIS WEEKEND...THEN DIMINISH BACK
TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEY COULD THEN DIMINISH
FURTHER LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THIS SATURDAY. FIRE CREWS
SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THIS SITUATION...AS IT WILL NOT TAKE
MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN WIND TO CAUSE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO ARISE IN A HURRY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SLIGHTLY DRIER MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE GOING TO MAINTAIN RELATIVELY
FAIR WEATHER NEAR CHUUK THRU FRIDAY...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THRU
TONIGHT. FARTHER EAST...A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS SLOWLY PULLING
WEST OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS THIS MORNING. RESIDUAL CONVERGENCE WILL
KEEP THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MAJURO UNTIL LATER THIS
EVENING. BY FRIDAY MORNING...AN ISOLATED TRADE-WIND SHOWER REGIME
SHOULD RETURN TO THE CAPITAL. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE SAME TRADE
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERY WEATHER TO KOSRAE AND POHNPEI ON
FRIDAY...POSSIBLY CHUUK THIS WEEKEND. THE LEADING EDGE OF A FRESH
TRADE-WIND SURGE IS VISIBLE ON THE LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE IMAGERY...
EAST OF THE DATE LINE NEAR 175W. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING TRADE-
WIND CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 3N AND 8N FROM 180 EASTWARD TO BEYOND 155W.
AS THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE SLIDES TOWARD THE MARSHALL ISLANDS THIS
WEEKEND...EXPECT CONVECTION TO SPREAD OVER MAJURO. IT WILL ALSO
REACH KOSRAE AND POHNPEI EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PROLONG UNSETTLED
WEATHER THERE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
REASONING FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST CAN BE FOUND UNDER EASTERN
MICRONESIA ABOVE.

GENTLE TRADE WINDS AND DRY AIR ABOVE 750MB WILL KEEP SHOWERS AT BAY
NEAR KOROR THRU TONIGHT AND YAP UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...
MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD
SLOWLY ADVECT MOISTURE FROM NEAR THE EQUATOR NORTHWARD TOWARD BOTH
LOCATIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...IT WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF TRADE-WIND SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/CHAN





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 041320 CCA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
344 PM CHST WED MAY 4 2016

CORRECTED TYPO

.SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL OVER
THE MARIANAS. PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT TO THE EAST OF THE
MARIANAS ON SATELLITE AND THE LATEST ASCAT ANALYSIS. AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY IT. CLOUD COVER
WILL THEN DECREASE TO PARTLY CLOUDY AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING THOUGH
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WFO GUAM JUST MISSED A WETTING RAIN YESTERDAY...RECEIVING 0.19
INCHES. THIS WOULD INDICATE THAT PARTS OF GUAM LIKELY RECEIVED A
WETTING RAIN...THUS DECREASING THE SHORT TERM FIRE DANGER. WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY EAST OF THE
MARIANAS...ANOTHER WETTING RAIN IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. EVEN IF GUAM
DOES NOT SEE WETTING RAINS...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AS THE WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS TODAY. ALSO...PATCHY AREAS
OF SHOWERS PERSIST SOUTH OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI. TRADE-WIND SHOWERS
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND ISOLATED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS ABOVE 9N-10N. MODELS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT
WESTWARD WITH SHOWERY WEATHER APPROACHING KOSRAE STATE ON THURSDAY
AND POHNPEI STATE BY FRIDAY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY BETWEEN ABOUT 3N AND 7N DURING THE
COMING DAYS. A SERIES OF TRADE DISTURBANCES UPSTREAM EAST OF THE
DATE LINE COULD HELP TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS FOR EASTERN MICRONESIA
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
RELATIVELY DRY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR CHUUK AND KOROR...AND
ESPECIALLY FOR YAP THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY THIS WEEKEND...TRADE-WIND
CONVERGENCE COULD DEVELOP NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE KOROR AREA AND
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS. ALSO...THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY NEAR THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS WILL DRIFT WESTWARD AND COULD AFFECT CHUUK STATE
THIS WEEKEND AS WELL.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

KLEESCHULTE/SIMPSON





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 040544
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
344 PM CHST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL OVER
THE MARIANAS. PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS A FEW SHOWS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT TO THE EAST OF THE
MARIANAS ON SATELLITE AND THE LATEST ASCAT ANALYSIS. AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY IT. CLOUD COVER
WILL THEN DECREASE TO PARTLY CLOUDY AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING THOUGH
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WFO GUAM JUST MISSED A WETTING RAIN YESTERDAY...RECEIVING 0.19
INCHES. THIS WOULD INDICATE THAT PARTS OF GUAM LIKELY RECEIVED A
WETTING RAIN...THUS DECREASING THE SHORT TERM FIRE DANGER. WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY EAST OF THE
MARIANAS...ANOTHER WETTING RAIN IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. EVEN IF GUAM
DOES NOT SEE WETTING RAINS...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AS THE WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS TODAY. ALSO...PATCHY AREAS
OF SHOWERS PERSIST SOUTH OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI. TRADE-WIND SHOWERS
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND ISOLATED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS ABOVE 9N-10N. MODELS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT
WESTWARD WITH SHOWERY WEATHER APPROACHING KOSRAE STATE ON THURSDAY
AND POHNPEI STATE BY FRIDAY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY BETWEEN ABOUT 3N AND 7N DURING THE
COMING DAYS. A SERIES OF TRADE DISTURBANCES UPSTREAM EAST OF THE
DATE LINE COULD HELP TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS FOR EASTERN MICRONESIA
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
RELATIVELY DRY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR CHUUK AND KOROR...AND
ESPECIALLY FOR YAP THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY THIS WEEKEND...TRADE-WIND
CONVERGENCE COULD DEVELOP NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE KOROR AREA AND
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS. ALSO...THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY NEAR THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS WILL DRIFT WESTWARD AND COULD AFFECT CHUUK STATE
THIS WEEKEND AS WELL.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

KLEESCHULTE/SIMPSON





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 032151
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
751 AM CHST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
MARIANAS WATERS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS
OF 7 TO 16 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR.
THE WEATHER BALLOON FROM LAST EVENING SHOWS THE WINDS CHANGE TO
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS ABOVE 20 THOUSAND FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN REMAINS ENTRENCHED. WHILE THIS COULD
INDEED BE THE TURNING POINT OF THE DROUGHT...IT WILL STILL BE
QUITE SOME TIME BEFORE THE DROUGHT CAN HONESTLY BE DECLARED MOSTLY
OVER. IT MIGHT EVEN TAKE UNTIL SOMETIME DURING JULY. LITTLE CHANGE
IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...JUST EXTENDED THE GRIDS AND REFRESHED THE
WAVES. WAVES WILL EDGE UP A LITTLE THIS EVENING...NOTHING TO GET
ALARMED ABOUT THOUGH. THEY WILL STAY AT THESE LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN EDGE BACK DOWN NEXT WEEK. THEY MAY THEN DECREASE A
LITTLE MORE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WFO GUAM JUST MISSED A WETTING RAIN YESTERDAY WITH 0.19 INCHES.
THIS MAKES OUR LOCAL KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX 766. IT IS
POSSIBLE SOME AREAS GOT A WETTING RAIN YESTERDAY AND IT MIGHT
LOCALLY BE LOWER. OVERALL...THE DRIER WEATHER TODAY MEANS THE
MITIGATION OF FIRE DANGER WILL BE SHORT LIVED UNLESS WE GET
ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN SOON.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LATEST ASCAT ANALYSIS REVEALS A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WESTERN MICRONESIA THRU 3N150E TO END SOUTH OF
KOSRAE AT EQ163E. MODERATE TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THIS
FEATURE MIGHT BE ENHANCED BY A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY TO
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE LEADING EDGE OF A FRESH TRADE-WIND SURGE...IN THE FORM OF A
TRADE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THRU THE MARSHALL ISLANDS THIS MORNING.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE NEAR MAJURO UNTIL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE BY TONIGHT...
SLIGHTLY DRIER TRADES SHOULD DECREASE SHOWER COVERAGE THERE. AS THIS
SAME DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY PULLS FARTHER WESTWARD...IT WILL INTERACT
WITH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO KOSRAE AND POHNPEI TOWARD THIS WEEKEND. A SERIES OF
TRADE DISTURBANCES ARE VISIBLE UPSTREAM EAST OF THE DATE LINE. THESE
SYSTEMS MIGHT INTRODUCE MORE WET WEATHER TO MAJURO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO STAY NEAR 3N SOUTH OF ALL
MAJOR FORECAST POINTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
MUCH DRIER MODERATE TRADES TO MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS NEAR KOROR
AND YAP AT LEAST THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MID-
LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS WEEKEND. IF SO...
THEY MIGHT ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER BOTH LOCALES AND INCREASE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. FOR CHUUK...A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN
TEAMING UP WITH DIVERGENT UPPER WINDS TO TRIGGER SPORADIC
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...LATEST SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES A WEAKENING
TREND ON THIS CONVECTION. THERE WAS NO EVIDENCE ON THE LATEST
SOUNDING YET BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A DRY AIR INTRUSION
FROM THE NORTH. THEREFORE...HAVE TRIMMED BACK SHOWER COVERAGE BUT
KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CHUUK FORECAST UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.
DURING THIS WEEKEND...ANOTHER TRADE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY NEAR THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS COULD AFFECT CHUUK AS WELL.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/CHAN





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 032151
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
751 AM CHST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
MARIANAS WATERS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS
OF 7 TO 16 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR.
THE WEATHER BALLOON FROM LAST EVENING SHOWS THE WINDS CHANGE TO
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS ABOVE 20 THOUSAND FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN REMAINS ENTRENCHED. WHILE THIS COULD
INDEED BE THE TURNING POINT OF THE DROUGHT...IT WILL STILL BE
QUITE SOME TIME BEFORE THE DROUGHT CAN HONESTLY BE DECLARED MOSTLY
OVER. IT MIGHT EVEN TAKE UNTIL SOMETIME DURING JULY. LITTLE CHANGE
IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...JUST EXTENDED THE GRIDS AND REFRESHED THE
WAVES. WAVES WILL EDGE UP A LITTLE THIS EVENING...NOTHING TO GET
ALARMED ABOUT THOUGH. THEY WILL STAY AT THESE LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN EDGE BACK DOWN NEXT WEEK. THEY MAY THEN DECREASE A
LITTLE MORE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WFO GUAM JUST MISSED A WETTING RAIN YESTERDAY WITH 0.19 INCHES.
THIS MAKES OUR LOCAL KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX 766. IT IS
POSSIBLE SOME AREAS GOT A WETTING RAIN YESTERDAY AND IT MIGHT
LOCALLY BE LOWER. OVERALL...THE DRIER WEATHER TODAY MEANS THE
MITIGATION OF FIRE DANGER WILL BE SHORT LIVED UNLESS WE GET
ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN SOON.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LATEST ASCAT ANALYSIS REVEALS A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WESTERN MICRONESIA THRU 3N150E TO END SOUTH OF
KOSRAE AT EQ163E. MODERATE TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THIS
FEATURE MIGHT BE ENHANCED BY A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY TO
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE LEADING EDGE OF A FRESH TRADE-WIND SURGE...IN THE FORM OF A
TRADE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THRU THE MARSHALL ISLANDS THIS MORNING.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE NEAR MAJURO UNTIL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE BY TONIGHT...
SLIGHTLY DRIER TRADES SHOULD DECREASE SHOWER COVERAGE THERE. AS THIS
SAME DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY PULLS FARTHER WESTWARD...IT WILL INTERACT
WITH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO KOSRAE AND POHNPEI TOWARD THIS WEEKEND. A SERIES OF
TRADE DISTURBANCES ARE VISIBLE UPSTREAM EAST OF THE DATE LINE. THESE
SYSTEMS MIGHT INTRODUCE MORE WET WEATHER TO MAJURO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO STAY NEAR 3N SOUTH OF ALL
MAJOR FORECAST POINTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
MUCH DRIER MODERATE TRADES TO MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS NEAR KOROR
AND YAP AT LEAST THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MID-
LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS WEEKEND. IF SO...
THEY MIGHT ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER BOTH LOCALES AND INCREASE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. FOR CHUUK...A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN
TEAMING UP WITH DIVERGENT UPPER WINDS TO TRIGGER SPORADIC
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...LATEST SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES A WEAKENING
TREND ON THIS CONVECTION. THERE WAS NO EVIDENCE ON THE LATEST
SOUNDING YET BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A DRY AIR INTRUSION
FROM THE NORTH. THEREFORE...HAVE TRIMMED BACK SHOWER COVERAGE BUT
KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CHUUK FORECAST UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.
DURING THIS WEEKEND...ANOTHER TRADE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY NEAR THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS COULD AFFECT CHUUK AS WELL.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/CHAN





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 030603
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
403 PM CHST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE DATA SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
MARIANAS. PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE FIRST ONE MOVING THROUGH THE
MARIANAS TODAY. THIS FEATURE BROUGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY TO GUAM AND ROTA...WHILE PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER TINIAN AND SAIPAN. AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO
SPREAD FURTHER NORTHWARD. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS GUAM...PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND
COULD RECEIVE A WETTING RAIN FOR TODAY. THIS WILL HELP MITIGATE
THE SHORT TERM FIRE HAZARD. AS OF TODAY...THE KBDI ROSE TO 765.
THE AIRPORT HAS RECEIVED 0.17 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR TODAY...JUST
SHORT OF THE 0.20 INCHES NEEDED TO AFFECT THE KBDI. WITH SHOWERS
STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING...WE COULD EASILY SEE A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN THE KBDI TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN IN THE
EXTREME CATEGORY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION STAYING SOUTH OF POHNPEI AND
KOSRAE WHILE A FAIRLY DECENT-LOOKING TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS
SLIPPING BY JUST NORTH OF MAJURO. THE BAND OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
BOTH LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY AS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND ITS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE NORTH. FOR MAJURO...THE GFS HAS MUCH MORE
RAIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAN THE ECMWF...BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
ECMWF IN VIEW OF THE FACT THAT THE GFS HAS BEEN OVER-FORECASTING
RAIN IN THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. BUT SOME RELIEF MAY BE IN SIGHT FOR
NEXT WEEK...AS BOTH MODELS BRING INCREASING SHOWERS AFTER SUNDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE SHOWS CONVECTION OVER CHUUK AS EXPECTED...BUT DRY OVER
YAP AND KOROR. YAP AND KOROR WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL FRI-SUN FOR KOROR. SOME RELIEF FROM THE
DRYNESS IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...WHEN THE ECMWF RETURNS SHOWERS TO
BOTH LOCATIONS. FOR CHUUK...HAVE EXTENDED SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
WED NIGHT PER GFS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH BEYOND TONIGHT
AS THE ECMWF ENDS THE RAINY WEATHER WED MORNING.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

KLEESCHULTE/MIDDLEBROOKE





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 030603
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
403 PM CHST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE DATA SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
MARIANAS. PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE FIRST ONE MOVING THROUGH THE
MARIANAS TODAY. THIS FEATURE BROUGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY TO GUAM AND ROTA...WHILE PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER TINIAN AND SAIPAN. AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO
SPREAD FURTHER NORTHWARD. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS GUAM...PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND
COULD RECEIVE A WETTING RAIN FOR TODAY. THIS WILL HELP MITIGATE
THE SHORT TERM FIRE HAZARD. AS OF TODAY...THE KBDI ROSE TO 765.
THE AIRPORT HAS RECEIVED 0.17 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR TODAY...JUST
SHORT OF THE 0.20 INCHES NEEDED TO AFFECT THE KBDI. WITH SHOWERS
STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING...WE COULD EASILY SEE A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN THE KBDI TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN IN THE
EXTREME CATEGORY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION STAYING SOUTH OF POHNPEI AND
KOSRAE WHILE A FAIRLY DECENT-LOOKING TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS
SLIPPING BY JUST NORTH OF MAJURO. THE BAND OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
BOTH LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY AS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND ITS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE NORTH. FOR MAJURO...THE GFS HAS MUCH MORE
RAIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAN THE ECMWF...BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
ECMWF IN VIEW OF THE FACT THAT THE GFS HAS BEEN OVER-FORECASTING
RAIN IN THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. BUT SOME RELIEF MAY BE IN SIGHT FOR
NEXT WEEK...AS BOTH MODELS BRING INCREASING SHOWERS AFTER SUNDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE SHOWS CONVECTION OVER CHUUK AS EXPECTED...BUT DRY OVER
YAP AND KOROR. YAP AND KOROR WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL FRI-SUN FOR KOROR. SOME RELIEF FROM THE
DRYNESS IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...WHEN THE ECMWF RETURNS SHOWERS TO
BOTH LOCATIONS. FOR CHUUK...HAVE EXTENDED SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
WED NIGHT PER GFS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH BEYOND TONIGHT
AS THE ECMWF ENDS THE RAINY WEATHER WED MORNING.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

KLEESCHULTE/MIDDLEBROOKE





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 022218
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
818 AM CHST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
THE MARIANAS WATERS...PRIMARILY AROUND GUAM AND ROTA FOR NOW. THE
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE MARIANAS. VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 11 TO 22 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 14 THOUSAND FEET OF THE
AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. REFRESHED THE WINDS AND WIND
DEPENDENT GRIDS SUCH AS WIND WAVES AND GUSTS. EXTENDED THE WAVE
GRIDS AND THE SURF GRIDS. REALLY...THE CHANGES WERE VERY MINOR.
RETAINED PARTLY SUNNY FOR TODAY...WHICH AT FIRST SEEMED IT MIGHT
BE QUESTIONABLE FOR ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN. DECIDED IT WOULD
TEND TO CLOUD UP AS THE DAY WENT ON AND THIS SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING
AT ROTA. SO...CLOUDS COULD WELL SPREAD FARTHER TO THE NORTH AS
THE DAY WEARS ON.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF POHNPEI
AND KOSRAE WHILE DRY TRADE-WIND CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAND
OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE PROGGED TO STAY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
KOSRAE AND POHNPEI FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SO ONLY MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO POHNPEI AND KOSRAE BY THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND ATTENDANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH. FOR MAJURO...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND CONVECTION OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVECTION NEAR THE ZONE OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE HAS MADE ITS WAY
INTO CHUUK WATERS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING AT LEAST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. A QUIETER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY AS SHOWER ACTIVITY REPOSITIONS TO THE SOUTH. YAP AND KOROR
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE MOISTURE AND
OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/WILLIAMS





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 022218
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
818 AM CHST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
THE MARIANAS WATERS...PRIMARILY AROUND GUAM AND ROTA FOR NOW. THE
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE MARIANAS. VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 11 TO 22 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 14 THOUSAND FEET OF THE
AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. REFRESHED THE WINDS AND WIND
DEPENDENT GRIDS SUCH AS WIND WAVES AND GUSTS. EXTENDED THE WAVE
GRIDS AND THE SURF GRIDS. REALLY...THE CHANGES WERE VERY MINOR.
RETAINED PARTLY SUNNY FOR TODAY...WHICH AT FIRST SEEMED IT MIGHT
BE QUESTIONABLE FOR ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN. DECIDED IT WOULD
TEND TO CLOUD UP AS THE DAY WENT ON AND THIS SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING
AT ROTA. SO...CLOUDS COULD WELL SPREAD FARTHER TO THE NORTH AS
THE DAY WEARS ON.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF POHNPEI
AND KOSRAE WHILE DRY TRADE-WIND CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAND
OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE PROGGED TO STAY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
KOSRAE AND POHNPEI FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SO ONLY MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO POHNPEI AND KOSRAE BY THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND ATTENDANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH. FOR MAJURO...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND CONVECTION OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVECTION NEAR THE ZONE OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE HAS MADE ITS WAY
INTO CHUUK WATERS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING AT LEAST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. A QUIETER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY AS SHOWER ACTIVITY REPOSITIONS TO THE SOUTH. YAP AND KOROR
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE MOISTURE AND
OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/WILLIAMS





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 020727 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
527 PM CHST MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAIL OVER THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE
EVIDENT ON LATEST WSR-88D REFLECTIVITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSIT THE MARIANAS OVER
THE NEXT WEEK...BRINGING OFF AND ON SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS. RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW AND WILL DO LITTLE TO ALLEVIATE
THE DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS GUAM OVER THE NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW. THE KBDI CONTINUES A SLOW RISE IN
THE EXTREME CATEGORY AND IS NOW AT 764. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE A BIT LATER IN THE WEEK. IF THIS OCCURS WITHOUT A WETTING
RAIN...FIRE WEATHER COULD BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN AN
EAST-WEST BAND ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN MICRONESIA...BUT MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST LOCATIONS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN THIS
PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BRING THE BAND OF CONVECTION FAR
ENOUGH NORTH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY FOR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. BUT MAJURO REMAINS RELATIVELY
DRY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WELL SOUTH OF PALAU AND YAP...AND
MODELS SHOW THIS PATTERN HOLDING THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED MOISTURE WORKING
NORTHWARD TO PALAU WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. BUT YAP REMAINS DRY...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN THROUGH TUE
NIGHT AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WED-SAT. AT CHUUK...BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF BRING DEEP CONVECTION IN FROM THE EAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND
POSSIBLY AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN THROUGH TUE NIGHT. AFTER THAT ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST...BUT LOCALLY
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

KLEESCHULTE/MIDDLEBROOKE





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 020727 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
527 PM CHST MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAIL OVER THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE
EVIDENT ON LATEST WSR-88D REFLECTIVITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSIT THE MARIANAS OVER
THE NEXT WEEK...BRINGING OFF AND ON SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS. RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW AND WILL DO LITTLE TO ALLEVIATE
THE DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS GUAM OVER THE NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW. THE KBDI CONTINUES A SLOW RISE IN
THE EXTREME CATEGORY AND IS NOW AT 764. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE A BIT LATER IN THE WEEK. IF THIS OCCURS WITHOUT A WETTING
RAIN...FIRE WEATHER COULD BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN AN
EAST-WEST BAND ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN MICRONESIA...BUT MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST LOCATIONS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN THIS
PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BRING THE BAND OF CONVECTION FAR
ENOUGH NORTH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY FOR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. BUT MAJURO REMAINS RELATIVELY
DRY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WELL SOUTH OF PALAU AND YAP...AND
MODELS SHOW THIS PATTERN HOLDING THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED MOISTURE WORKING
NORTHWARD TO PALAU WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. BUT YAP REMAINS DRY...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN THROUGH TUE
NIGHT AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WED-SAT. AT CHUUK...BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF BRING DEEP CONVECTION IN FROM THE EAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND
POSSIBLY AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN THROUGH TUE NIGHT. AFTER THAT ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST...BUT LOCALLY
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

KLEESCHULTE/MIDDLEBROOKE





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 020612
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
412 PM CHST MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAIL OVER THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE
EVIDENT ON LATEST WSR-88D REFLECTIVITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSIT THE MARIANAS OVER
THE NEXT WEEK...BRINGING OFF AND ON SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS. RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW AND WILL DO LITTLE TO ALLEVIATE
THE DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS GUAM OVER THE NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW. THE KBDI CONTINUES A SLOW RISE IN
THE EXTREME CATEGORY AND IS NOW AT 764. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE A BIT LATER IN THE WEEK. IF THIS OCCURS WITHOUT A WETTING
RAIN...FIRE WEATHER COULD BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TO BE ADDED LATER.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
TO BE ADDED LATER.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

KLEESCHULTE/MIDDLEBROOKE





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