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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 252111
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
711 AM CHST SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH ONLY A FEW SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS ON THE WINDS. MODELS WANTED TO BRING IN EASTERLY
WINDS THIS MORNING BUT OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW
SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSISTING OVER THE MARIANAS. EASTERLY WINDS
SHOULD ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

SOUNDING AND SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE WATER INDEX IS ABOVE 2 INCHES.
EXPECT IT TO REMAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY. DESPITE THE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED ACROSS THE
MARIANAS TODAY.

EARLIER MODELS RUNS HAD SHOWN PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE MARIANAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS NOW SEEM TO BE DECREASING
THE EXPECTED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE A FEW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY...COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

DESPITE THE LACK OF SHOWERS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST. THIS
SWELL WILL NOT BECOME VERY LARGE AND A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A SURFACE TROUGH CURVING NORTHWESTWARD FROM A CIRCULATION CENTERED
SOUTH OF MAJURO NEAR 4N172E IS GRADUALLY MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THIS MORNING. A SURGE OF FRESH TRADE WINDS IS
CONVERGING TOWARD THE TROUGH AND CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTHEAST.
THIS PROCESS HAS BEEN GENERATING SPORADIC CONVECTION ACROSS THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS AND EAST OF POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. EXPECT THIS
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE NEAR MAJURO THRU TONIGHT...AND REACH KOSRAE
AND POHNPEI LATER THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CIRCULATION WILL SUSTAIN PERIODIC SHOWERS
NEAR MAJURO AS IT MOVES THRU THE CAPITAL ON MONDAY. THEN MUCH WEAKER
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD PROMOTE QUIETER
WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK...A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM NEAR THE DATE LINE MIGHT INTRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS FOR THE CAPITAL.

LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS HAS COME TO AGREEMENT ON THE MID TO LONG TERM
STATUS OF THE CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
MICRONESIA. ONCE THE SURFACE TROUGH HAS PASSED SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI
AND KOSRAE ON MONDAY EVENING...IT IS EXPECTED TO LINK UP WITH THE
SOUTHEASTERN END OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH SOUTH OF CHUUK.
UNDER THIS SCENARIO...MODEST CONVERGENT WINDS NEAR THIS NEWLY
EXTENSION OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH WILL PROLONG INSTABILITY
NEAR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THRU TUESDAY. NEAR MIDWEEK...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING EASTWARD FROM EAST OF JAPAN SHOULD WEAKEN THE
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH NORTHWEST OF MIDWAY. IF SO...IT COULD ALLOW THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH TO FINALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AWAY FROM POHNPEI
AND KOSRAE. IN RESPONSE...GENTLE WINDS SOUTH OF THE TROUGH COULD
SUPPORT DRIER WEATHER FOR BOTH PLACES.


&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE SOUTHEASTERN END OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH HAS SHIFTED
FARTHER SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK THIS MORNING. DESPITE THIS...MODEST
CONVERGING SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR CHUUK THRU THIS EVENING.
LATEST SOUNDING DATA FROM WSO CHUUK ALSO INDICATE A WEAK VORTICITY
FIELD AT 500MB. THIS COMBINATION CAN STILL FLARE UP WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE ISLAND THRU THIS EVENING.
WHILE TORRENTIAL RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED...SOME OCCASIONAL BRIEF
HEAVY SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY AND UPDATE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
ACCORDINGLY IF THESE HEAVY SHOWERS HAPPEN TO LAST LONGER THAN
EXPECTED. BY MONDAY...SURFACE RIDGING AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH
NEAR POHNPEI SHOULD BRING IN A SHORT PERIOD OF FAIRER WEATHER.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT RETURN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH FROM POHNPEI LINKS UP WITH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH TO
THE WEST. AFTER MIDWEEK...THE SAME REASONING MENTIONED IN THE
SECOND PARAGRAPH OF THE EASTERN MICRONESIA DISCUSSION COULD
INTRODUCE QUIETER WEATHER TO CHUUK.

A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH RELATED TO A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTERED
SOUTHEAST OF YAP NEAR 8N141E IS PERSISTING JUST SOUTH OF KOROR AND
YAP THIS MORNING. CONVERGING SURFACE WINDS JUST NORTH OF THIS
FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN POCKETS OF CONVECTION NEAR BOTH LOCALES TODAY.
THE CIRCULATION IS GOING TO PROGRESS SLOWLY WESTWARD PASSING JUST
SOUTH OF YAP TONIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG
ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR YAP TONIGHT. PERIODIC CONVECTION
NEAR THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL AXIS WILL ALSO LINGER NEAR KOROR THRU
MONDAY. AS THE CIRCULATION REACH KOROR ON MONDAY NIGHT...WEAKER
WINDS NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO
DECREASE ACROSS BOTH LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 250646 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
445 PM CHST SAT APR 25 2015

UPDATED TO ADD MICRONESIA DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF A SURFACE
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN MARIANAS COASTAL
WATERS. FARTHER SOUTH...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
HEAD SLOWLY WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH PASSED THROUGH THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH PASSED THROUGH THE ISLANDS THIS
MORNING AND ARE NOW MAINLY TO THE WEST.

00Z ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOWS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF GUAM TO
BE LOCATED NEAR 7N144E. VIS SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS ANOTHER AREA
OF INTEREST NEAR CHUUK...NEAR 6N153E. UNFORTUNATELY...ASCAT PASS
MISSED THIS AREA. THESE DISTURBANCES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK
SLOWLY WEST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...MUCH OF
THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THESE DISTURBANCES IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP TO THE SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS. STILL FEEL THAT ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS BEST BET BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SOMETIME SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

BY MIDWEEK...MODELS DIVERGE. GFS FAVORS A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
PATTERN OVER THE REGION VS THE GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST WINDS OF
THE ECMWF. DECIDED TO KEEP WITH PERSISTENCE AND GO WITH THE ECMWF
THROUGH MIDWEEK. SEA CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BENIGN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH A DOMINANT EAST SWELL...AND COMBINED SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
REMAIN TO THE WEST OF POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST NEAR MAJURO. AS A RESULT...WEAK
RIDGING IS IN PLACE OVER BOTH LOCATIONS AND WILL HELP PROMOTE DRY
AND FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AT KOSRAE AND THROUGH SUNDAY AT
POHNPEI. AS THE DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD...INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KOSRAE SUNDAY AND THEN TO POHNPEI
SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
KOSRAE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY FOR NOW...BUT CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING
LESS FAVORABLE FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED. SCATTERED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE NEAR MAJURO CONTINUES TO DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS TO AGAIN SURGE LATER TONIGHT...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY AT MAJURO AROUND MIDNIGHT. AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES FARTHER WESTWARD...WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE MARSHALLS BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS BACK TO MAJURO
MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND SPREAD
WESTWARD INTO KOSRAE MONDAY NIGHT AND POHNPEI TUESDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM NEAR 4N130E THROUGH A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF YAP NEAR 7N144E TO END AT
A SECOND WEAK CIRCULATION CENTERED SOUTH OF CHUUK NEAR 6N153E.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND CIRCULATION NEAR CHUUK BROUGHT
HEAVY RAINFALL TO WENO OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION HAS WAINED THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT IS EXPECTED TO AGAIN INCREASE LATER TONIGHT. KOROR
IS ALSO ENJOYING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KOROR
AND SOUTHEAST OF YAP. SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP OVER KOROR LATER THIS
EVENING AND WILL MOVE INTO YAP AS WELL BY MIDNIGHT. FAIR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO CHUUK AROUND MIDWEEK AS THE CIRCULATIONS AND TROUGH
CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS YAP AND PALAU THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED BEYOND
TUESDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

M. AYDLETT/KLEESCHULTE





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 250646 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
445 PM CHST SAT APR 25 2015

UPDATED TO ADD MICRONESIA DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF A SURFACE
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN MARIANAS COASTAL
WATERS. FARTHER SOUTH...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
HEAD SLOWLY WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH PASSED THROUGH THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH PASSED THROUGH THE ISLANDS THIS
MORNING AND ARE NOW MAINLY TO THE WEST.

00Z ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOWS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF GUAM TO
BE LOCATED NEAR 7N144E. VIS SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS ANOTHER AREA
OF INTEREST NEAR CHUUK...NEAR 6N153E. UNFORTUNATELY...ASCAT PASS
MISSED THIS AREA. THESE DISTURBANCES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK
SLOWLY WEST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...MUCH OF
THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THESE DISTURBANCES IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP TO THE SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS. STILL FEEL THAT ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS BEST BET BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SOMETIME SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

BY MIDWEEK...MODELS DIVERGE. GFS FAVORS A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
PATTERN OVER THE REGION VS THE GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST WINDS OF
THE ECMWF. DECIDED TO KEEP WITH PERSISTENCE AND GO WITH THE ECMWF
THROUGH MIDWEEK. SEA CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BENIGN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH A DOMINANT EAST SWELL...AND COMBINED SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
REMAIN TO THE WEST OF POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST NEAR MAJURO. AS A RESULT...WEAK
RIDGING IS IN PLACE OVER BOTH LOCATIONS AND WILL HELP PROMOTE DRY
AND FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AT KOSRAE AND THROUGH SUNDAY AT
POHNPEI. AS THE DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD...INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KOSRAE SUNDAY AND THEN TO POHNPEI
SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
KOSRAE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY FOR NOW...BUT CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING
LESS FAVORABLE FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED. SCATTERED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE NEAR MAJURO CONTINUES TO DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS TO AGAIN SURGE LATER TONIGHT...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY AT MAJURO AROUND MIDNIGHT. AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES FARTHER WESTWARD...WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE MARSHALLS BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS BACK TO MAJURO
MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND SPREAD
WESTWARD INTO KOSRAE MONDAY NIGHT AND POHNPEI TUESDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM NEAR 4N130E THROUGH A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF YAP NEAR 7N144E TO END AT
A SECOND WEAK CIRCULATION CENTERED SOUTH OF CHUUK NEAR 6N153E.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND CIRCULATION NEAR CHUUK BROUGHT
HEAVY RAINFALL TO WENO OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION HAS WAINED THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT IS EXPECTED TO AGAIN INCREASE LATER TONIGHT. KOROR
IS ALSO ENJOYING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KOROR
AND SOUTHEAST OF YAP. SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP OVER KOROR LATER THIS
EVENING AND WILL MOVE INTO YAP AS WELL BY MIDNIGHT. FAIR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO CHUUK AROUND MIDWEEK AS THE CIRCULATIONS AND TROUGH
CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS YAP AND PALAU THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED BEYOND
TUESDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

M. AYDLETT/KLEESCHULTE





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 250532
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
332 PM CHST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF A SURFACE
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN MARIANAS COASTAL
WATERS. FARTHER SOUTH...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
HEAD SLOWLY WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH PASSED THROUGH THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH PASSED THROUGH THE ISLANDS THIS
MORNING AND ARE NOW MAINLY TO THE WEST.

00Z ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOWS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF GUAM TO
BE LOCATED NEAR 7N144E. VIS SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS ANOTHER AREA
OF INTEREST NEAR CHUUK...AROUND 7N151E. UNFORTUNATELY...ASCAT PASS
MISSED THIS AREA. THESE DISTURBANCES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK
SLOWLY WEST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...MUCH OF
THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THESE DISTURBANCES IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP TO THE SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS. STILL FEEL THAT ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS BEST BET BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SOMETIME SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

BY MIDWEEK...MODELS DIVERGE. GFS FAVORS A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
PATTERN OVER THE REGION VS THE GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST WINDS OF
THE ECMWF. DECIDED TO KEEP WITH PERSISTENCE AND GO WITH THE ECMWF
THROUGH MIDWEEK. SEA CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BENIGN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH A DOMINANT EAST SWELL...AND COMBINED SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
WILL BE SENT WHEN AVAILABLE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
WILL BE SENT WHEN AVAILABLE.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

M. AYDLETT/KLEESCHULTE





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 242159
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
759 AM CHST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EAST WINDS AND A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWED A CIRCULATION CENTERED
SOUTHEAST OF YAP NEAR 4N142E. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED NORTHEAST
FROM THE CIRCULATION TO 15N150E. AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES WEST IT
WILL DRAG THE TROUGH ACROSS THE MARIANAS TODAY. NORTHEAST WIND
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. AS THE TROUGH AXIS
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE MARIANAS WINDS WILL BECOME EAST AROUND NOON
TIME.


THE PERCIPITABLE WATER INDEX FROM LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING WAS 1.64
INCHES...AT THE SAME TIME SATELLITE ESTIMATE OF THE PWI WAS 1.53
INCHES. BY SUNRISE THE SATELLITE ESTIMATE HAD INCREASED TO 1.92
INCHES. THIS INCREASE IN PWI IS INDICATIVE OF AN INCREASE IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. THE SATELLITE DATA SHOWED HIGHER PWI VALES FURTHER
EAST. EXPECT THE PWI TO GO ABOVE 2 INCHES BY TONIGHT.

ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE
ITSELF. MODELS SHOW LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH. THIS CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STILL NOT CERTAIN ON SHOWER COVERAGE
AS MODELS DEPICT SPOTTY COVERAGE IN RAINSHOWER ACTIVITY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTED SPOTTY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE AREAS NEAR
155E WERE GETTING MORE CONCENTRATED.

FORECAST STILL ONLY HAS ISOLATED SHOWERS IN IT...BUT WITH THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AS EVIDENT BY THE PWI RISE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR
155E THIS MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. AT THIS TIME FEEL THAT ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE COVERAGE BUT THERE COULD BE
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM TONIGHT THOUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS
THE MODELS SHOW A SPOTTY RAINFALL PATTERN IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT
THE TIMING OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODELS DO AGREE WITH DRIER
WEATHER BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST. THIS
SWELL WILL NOT BECOME VERY LARGE AND A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE ARE SITUATED BETWEEN TWO WEATHER FEATURES...A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE
EAST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN SO THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DURING
THIS TIME...ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADES WILL PREVAIL BUT FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS COULD SPARK
OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH LOCALES. THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO NEAR 4N175E IS BEGINNING TO DRIFT WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THIS MORNING. CONVECTION NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER WILL SLOWLY BUT STEADILY APPROACH MAJURO TODAY AND SPREAD
OVER THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AS THE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH DRIFT WEST OF
MAJURO ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAKER SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER
COVERAGE TO DECREASE. ON ANOTHER HAND...CONVECTION WILL SPREAD
WESTWARD OVER KOSRAE AND POHNPEI. FAIR WEATHER WILL ARRIVE AT MAJURO
BY MONDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS WESTWARD ACROSS THE DATE LINE.
THIS SAME RIDGE MIGHT ALSO BRING DRIER WEATHER TO KOSRAE AND POHNPEI
TOWARD MIDWEEK AS WELL.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE LEADING EDGE OF A TRADE-WIND SURGE HAS ARRIVED AT CHUUK THIS
MORNING. WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN END OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH STILL
LINGERING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST...INCREASING SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS
COUPLING WITH DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TO GENERATE POCKETS OF
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE ISLAND. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THRU
SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES FARTHER WEST AWAY FROM
CHUUK ON SUNDAY NIGHT...FAIRER WEATHER ALREADY OVER POHNPEI WILL
SPREAD WESTWARD OVER CHUUK. IN THE LONG TERM...THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO MIGHT BRING MORE WETNESS
TO CHUUK TOWARD MIDWEEK.

THE AXIS OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH RELATED TO A BROAD CIRCULATION
CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF YAP NEAR 7N143E IS INCHING CLOSER TO KOROR AND
YAP. AT THE UPPER-LEVELS...A RIDGE IS PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION
NEAR 10N JUST NORTH OF BOTH PLACES. STRONG DIVERGENCE JUST SOUTH OF
THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE TROUGH
AXIS. ANTICIPATE THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE IMPACT KOROR UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT AND ENGULF YAP BY LATER THIS EVENING. AS THE
CIRCULATION GRADUALLY APPROACH YAP AND KOROR ON MONDAY...GENTLE
WINDS NEAR ITS CENTER WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO WEAKEN. FURTHER
IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR BY MIDWEEK AS THE CIRCULATION PASSES WEST
OF THE AREA.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 242159
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
759 AM CHST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EAST WINDS AND A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWED A CIRCULATION CENTERED
SOUTHEAST OF YAP NEAR 4N142E. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED NORTHEAST
FROM THE CIRCULATION TO 15N150E. AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES WEST IT
WILL DRAG THE TROUGH ACROSS THE MARIANAS TODAY. NORTHEAST WIND
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. AS THE TROUGH AXIS
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE MARIANAS WINDS WILL BECOME EAST AROUND NOON
TIME.


THE PERCIPITABLE WATER INDEX FROM LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING WAS 1.64
INCHES...AT THE SAME TIME SATELLITE ESTIMATE OF THE PWI WAS 1.53
INCHES. BY SUNRISE THE SATELLITE ESTIMATE HAD INCREASED TO 1.92
INCHES. THIS INCREASE IN PWI IS INDICATIVE OF AN INCREASE IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. THE SATELLITE DATA SHOWED HIGHER PWI VALES FURTHER
EAST. EXPECT THE PWI TO GO ABOVE 2 INCHES BY TONIGHT.

ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE
ITSELF. MODELS SHOW LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH. THIS CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STILL NOT CERTAIN ON SHOWER COVERAGE
AS MODELS DEPICT SPOTTY COVERAGE IN RAINSHOWER ACTIVITY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTED SPOTTY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE AREAS NEAR
155E WERE GETTING MORE CONCENTRATED.

FORECAST STILL ONLY HAS ISOLATED SHOWERS IN IT...BUT WITH THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AS EVIDENT BY THE PWI RISE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR
155E THIS MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. AT THIS TIME FEEL THAT ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE COVERAGE BUT THERE COULD BE
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM TONIGHT THOUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS
THE MODELS SHOW A SPOTTY RAINFALL PATTERN IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT
THE TIMING OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODELS DO AGREE WITH DRIER
WEATHER BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST. THIS
SWELL WILL NOT BECOME VERY LARGE AND A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE ARE SITUATED BETWEEN TWO WEATHER FEATURES...A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE
EAST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN SO THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DURING
THIS TIME...ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADES WILL PREVAIL BUT FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS COULD SPARK
OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH LOCALES. THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO NEAR 4N175E IS BEGINNING TO DRIFT WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THIS MORNING. CONVECTION NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER WILL SLOWLY BUT STEADILY APPROACH MAJURO TODAY AND SPREAD
OVER THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AS THE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH DRIFT WEST OF
MAJURO ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAKER SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER
COVERAGE TO DECREASE. ON ANOTHER HAND...CONVECTION WILL SPREAD
WESTWARD OVER KOSRAE AND POHNPEI. FAIR WEATHER WILL ARRIVE AT MAJURO
BY MONDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS WESTWARD ACROSS THE DATE LINE.
THIS SAME RIDGE MIGHT ALSO BRING DRIER WEATHER TO KOSRAE AND POHNPEI
TOWARD MIDWEEK AS WELL.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE LEADING EDGE OF A TRADE-WIND SURGE HAS ARRIVED AT CHUUK THIS
MORNING. WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN END OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH STILL
LINGERING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST...INCREASING SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS
COUPLING WITH DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TO GENERATE POCKETS OF
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE ISLAND. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THRU
SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES FARTHER WEST AWAY FROM
CHUUK ON SUNDAY NIGHT...FAIRER WEATHER ALREADY OVER POHNPEI WILL
SPREAD WESTWARD OVER CHUUK. IN THE LONG TERM...THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO MIGHT BRING MORE WETNESS
TO CHUUK TOWARD MIDWEEK.

THE AXIS OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH RELATED TO A BROAD CIRCULATION
CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF YAP NEAR 7N143E IS INCHING CLOSER TO KOROR AND
YAP. AT THE UPPER-LEVELS...A RIDGE IS PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION
NEAR 10N JUST NORTH OF BOTH PLACES. STRONG DIVERGENCE JUST SOUTH OF
THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE TROUGH
AXIS. ANTICIPATE THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE IMPACT KOROR UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT AND ENGULF YAP BY LATER THIS EVENING. AS THE
CIRCULATION GRADUALLY APPROACH YAP AND KOROR ON MONDAY...GENTLE
WINDS NEAR ITS CENTER WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO WEAKEN. FURTHER
IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR BY MIDWEEK AS THE CIRCULATION PASSES WEST
OF THE AREA.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 240539
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
339 PM CHST FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AND
SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES MADE FROM INHERITED FORECAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO
THE SOUTH OF GUAM IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SHOWERS. A TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. OTHERWISE...FAIR AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
IS CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF TARAWA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
TOWARD NORTHWEST ACROSS KOSRAE TO NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI...AND ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH RUNS TOWARD NORTHEAST WHICH IS TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE APPROACHING MAJURO FROM THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHS
WILL MOVE WESTWARD WITH PATCHY AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAJURO...KOSRAE AND POHNPEI IN THE COMING DAYS.
MOST MODELS ALSO INDICATE A RELATIVELY MOIST PATTERN OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A SLOW-MOVING CIRCULATION THAT IS SOUTHEAST OF YAP AT ABOUT 6N144E
THIS AFTERNOON IS HELPING TO CAUSE SHOWERS IN SEVERAL AREAS BETWEEN
KOROR AND YAP...SOUTHEAST OF YAP...AND NORTHWEST OF CHUUK. WEATHER
WILL BE UNSTABLE FOR YAP AND KOROR WHILE THIS CIRCULATIONS DRIFTS
SLOWLY WESTWARD...THEN IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR KOROR AND
YAP BY NEXT WEEK. FOR CHUUK...THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE AS A SURFACE
RIDGE ARRIVES FROM THE EAST THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE DISTURBANCE OVER
EASTERN MICRONESIA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AND IT COULD START TO
AFFECT CHUUK STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

KLEESCHULTE/SIMPSON





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 232108
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
708 AM CHST FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EAST WINDS AND A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING A CIRCULATION WAS LOCATED FAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA...NEAR 5N145E. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEAST OF
THE CIRCULATION. BOTH THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE MARIANAS SUNDAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
TROUGH NEARS. IN ADDITION TO THIS TROUGH MODELS SHOW MORE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHS PASSING ACROSS THE MARIANAS DURING THE COMING
WEEK.

THESE TROUGHS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS
DEPICT SPOTTY AREAS OF RAIN PASSING OVER THE MARIANAS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROUGHS. WHILE IT MAY BE POSSIBLE THAT SHOWER COVERAGE MAY
BE SCATTERED AT TIMES BETWEEN SUNDAY AND THURSDAY...FIGURING OUT
THE EXACT TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN. WILL LEAVE SHOWER COVERAGE AS
ISOLATED FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST. THIS
SWELL WILL NOT BECOME VERY LARGE AND A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. VAD WIND PROFILE DATA AND LOCAL
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE MARIANAS.
SCATTEROEMETER DATA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT TENDED TO SHOW WINDS
MAINLY BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE REGION. BUOY DATA SHOWS
SEAS BETWEEN 6 TO 8 FEET. WITH WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN
CRITERIA...CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS GOING TO KEEP FAIR CONDITIONS NEAR POHNPEI
THRU THIS EVENING AND KOSRAE THIS MORNING. INCREASING TRADE-WIND
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A MODERATE TO FRESH SURGE WILL COUPLE WITH TWO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KOSRAE BY NOON TODAY...AND POHNPEI BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THEN THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN AGAIN BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AS DRIER TRADES FLOW THRU THE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS QUASI-STATIONARY EAST OF TARAWA ATOLL
NEAR 2N176E. FRESH TRADES NORTH OF THE DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED
TO PROMOTE RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER FOR MAJURO THRU TONIGHT. AS THE
DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO DRIFT SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON
SATURDAY... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM IT WILL
APPROACH THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. ANTICIPATE SHOWERY WEATHER TO
ARRIVE AT MAJURO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL LAST THRU SUNDAY
EVENING. ONCE THE TROUGH HAS MOVED WEST OF THE MARSHALLS EARLY
NEXT WEEK...RESIDUAL CONVERGING SOUTHEAST WINDS MIGHT TRIGGER A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS. WETTER WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCE ITSELF WILL ALSO AFFECT KOSRAE AND POHNPEI DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
MARSHALLS.


&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH RUNS NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHWEST OF KOROR
AT 3N130E TO A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF YAP AT 6N145E
...THEN TURNS SOUTHEASTWARD TO END SOUTH OF POHNPEI AT EQ158E.

THE SOUTHEASTERN END OF A THIS TROUGH IS GRADUALLY RETREATING WESTWARD
FROM JUST SOUTH OF CHUUK. MODEST CONVERGING SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR IT
WILL COMBINE WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER TROUGHS FROM THE EAST TO SUSTAIN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE ISLAND THRU SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...
WEAK RIDGING FROM NEAR POHNPEI WILL BRING MORE STABLE CONDITIONS.
FOR NEXT WEEK...THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
EAST OF TARAWA ATOLL WILL DETERMINE THE LONG TERM WEATHER.

TWO TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCES PROGRESSING SOUTHWESTWARD JUST NORTH OF
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH WILL GENERATE PERIODIC SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR YAP AND KOROR THRU SATURDAY. AS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY...INSTABILITY NEAR THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL PROLONG WETNESS FOR BOTH PLACES. AFTERWARD THE CIRCULATION
ITSELF IS ANTICIPATED TO DRIFT BETWEEN KOROR AND YAP NEAR TUESDAY
WITH MORE RAIN.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 230810 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
615 PM CHST THU APR 23 2015

UPDATED TO ADD MICRONESIA DISCUSSIONS

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91W REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. THE WEAK AND
ELONGATED CIRCULATION CENTER IS SSE OF GUAM NEAR 7N148E...BUT ALL
THE DEEP CONVECTION IS POSITIONED AROUND AND NORTH OF CHUUK
BETWEEN 5N AND 12N FROM 148E TO 156E. IT HAS SHOWN ONLY A SLIGHT
WESTWARD SHIFT SINCE YESTERDAY. IN THE MARIANAS...MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES AND VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT. SEAS AT THE
IPAN BUOY HAVE BEEN RUNNING FROM 8 TO JUST OVER 9 FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHILE 91W LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WILL
BEAR WATCHING...THE MAIN CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS WEST OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION...AND THE BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AT CHUUK IS NOT
PARTICULARLY LOW AND HAS ACTUALLY RISEN A LITTLE SINCE 24 HOURS
AGO. IN ADDITION...NONE OF THE MODELS SHOWS ANY DEVELOPMENT AT ALL
AS THE WEAK CIRCULATION MOVES WESTWARD SOUTH OF GUAM TONIGHT AND
INTO YAP STATE OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR THE MARIANAS...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY
FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TRADE-
WIND TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED FOR THE MOST PART...BUT A RANDOM CONVECTIVE
BLOW-UP COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AT ANY TIME
TO ONE OR MORE OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LINGER THIS AFTERNOON BUT
WINDS APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING...AND LATEST WW3 GUIDANCE
HAS SEAS BEGINNING TO FALL SLOWLY THIS EVENING AS WELL. THUS THE
ADVISORY SHOULD COME DOWN AT OR AHEAD OF SCHEDULE LATE TONIGHT OR
FRIDAY MORNING. THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES
AND SEAS FALLING TO 4-6 FT BY SUNDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
AS THE BROAD CIRCULATION OVER AND WEST OF CHUUK CONTINUES
WESTWARD... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY FAIR TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY WEATHER OVER POHNPEI AND KOSRAE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE RIDGING AND SHOWED A NEUTRAL AREA
INSTEAD OF A RIDGE SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT FAIR WEATHER
IN THE WAKE OF THE CIRCULATION. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST OF
MAJURO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAJURO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE ON
FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES WEST OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS.
AS THIS TROUGH WEAKENS IT COULD STILL TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS NEAR
KOSRAE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF POHNPEI.
ONCE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO DRIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE WEEKEND...CONVERGING TRADE WINDS ALONG ITS NORTHERN
PERIPHERY WILL CREATE MORE UNSTABLE WEATHER FOR MAJURO AND POSSIBLY
BRING IT TO KOSRAE AND POHNPEI EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHWEST OF
KOROR AT 2N130E THROUGH A WEAK CIRCULATION CENTERED BETWEEN CHUUK
AND YAP NEAR 6N145E TO END NEAR EQ154E. THE CIRCULATION WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND CHUUK TONIGHT.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT CHUUK THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD YAP. THE MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM LINGERING NEAR
YAP AND SKIRTING KOROR THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CHST
     FRIDAY FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 230539
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
339 PM CHST THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91W REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. THE WEAK AND
ELONGATED CIRCULATION CENTER IS SSE OF GUAM NEAR 7N148E...BUT ALL
THE DEEP CONVECTION IS POSITIONED AROUND AND NORTH OF CHUUK
BETWEEN 5N AND 12N FROM 148E TO 156E. IT HAS SHOWN ONLY A SLIGHT
WESTWARD SHIFT SINCE YESTERDAY. IN THE MARIANAS...MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES AND VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT. SEAS AT THE
IPAN BUOY HAVE BEEN RUNNING FROM 8 TO JUST OVER 9 FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHILE 91W LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WILL
BEAR WATCHING...THE MAIN CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS WEST OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION...AND THE BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AT CHUUK IS NOT
PARTICULARLY LOW AND HAS ACTUALLY RISEN A LITTLE SINCE 24 HOURS
AGO. IN ADDITION...NONE OF THE MODELS SHOWS ANY DEVELOPMENT AT ALL
AS THE WEAK CIRCULATION MOVES WESTWARD SOUTH OF GUAM TONIGHT AND
INTO YAP STATE OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR THE MARIANAS...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY
FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TRADE-
WIND TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED FOR THE MOST PART...BUT A RANDOM CONVECTIVE
BLOW-UP COULD BRING A BRIEF PRIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AT ANY TIME
TO ONE OR MORE OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LINGER THIS AFTERNOON BUT
WINDS APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING...AND LATEST WW3 GUIDANCE
HAS SEAS BEGINNING TO FALL SLOWLY THIS EVENING AS WELL. THUS THE
ADVISORY SHOULD COME DOWN AT OR AHEAD OF SCHEDULE LATE TONIGHT OR
FRIDAY MORNING. THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES
AND SEAS FALLING TO 4-6 FT BY SUNDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
WILL BE ADDED WHEN AVAILABLE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
WILL BE ADDED WHEN AVAILABLE.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CHST
     FRIDAY FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA





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