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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 290601 RRA
AFDPQ

AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
336 PM CHST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE SHOWS A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY SHEAR LINE NORTHWEST
OF THE MARIANAS...AND A WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS SIUATED
EAST OF THE ISLANDS NEAR 154E...MOVING WEST. RADAR SHOWS A FEW
SPRINKLES MAINLY WEST OF ROTA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS SEEN IN THE WEATHER THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. THE WEAK
TRADE DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A NEW SHEAR LINE MAY SETTLE INTO THE MARIANAS
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY INCREASE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST YET...AS THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER
WITH IT.

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
IN LIGHT OF RECENT UNDER-REPRESENTATION OF SEAS IN THE WW3
GUIDANCE...HAVE ADDED A FOOT TO THE LATEST WW3 OUTPUT THROUGH THE
NEXT 6 DAYS. THIS WILL BRING SEAS UP TO 7-9 FEET BY MONDAY WITH
PATCHY 10-FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT OR TUESDAY. NORTH SWELL
WILL BE INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY...AND MAY SEE HIGH SURF ALONG
NORTH FACING REEFS MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
WILL BE ADDED WHEN AVAILABLE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
WILL BE ADDED WHEN AVAILABLE.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 290430 RRA
AFDPQ

AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RE-SENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
924 AM CHST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS EXITING THE MARIANAS WATERS
TOWARD THE WEST WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST. THE VAD
WIND PROFILE REVEALS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 8 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH
THE LOWEST 4 THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR. ABOVE THIS THEY TURN TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MARIANAS REMAIN BETWEEN THE SHEAR LINES TO THE NORTH AND THE DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE SOMEWHAT DRIER THAN
NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT WEEK THE GFS40
BRINGS A SHEAR LINE ALL THE WAY DOWN TO GUAM. THIS COULD PROVIDE
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND KICK UP THE WINDS A BIT. SMALL CRAFT
AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE...NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY
STRONG THOUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
COMBINED SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY... THEN
RISE A BIT IN THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A
POSSIBLE SHEAR LINE PASSAGE. THE WINDS WOULD INCREASE A BIT TOO IF
THE SHEAR LINE DOES REACH THE MARIANAS WATERS. ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE...WOULD MOST LIKELY BE LOWER END THOUGH.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A LARGE DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR 40N168E TO JUST NORTH OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS HAS
DISPLACED THE EASTERN PART OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. AS THE
RESULT...THE ONLY MAJOR WEATHER FEATURE IN THE REGION IS A NARROW
BAND OF CONVERGING TRADE WINDS BETWEEN 4N AND 6N STRETCHING EASTWARD
FROM NEAR KOSRAE AT 165E TO WELL BEYOND THE DATE LINE. WITH KOSRAE
LYING DIRECTLY IN ITS PATH...THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
THE ISLAND THRU THIS WEEKEND. AS THIS BAND PROGRESSES WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THESE SHOWERS COULD
SPILL NORTHWARD OVER MAJURO AS WELL. IT WILL ALSO INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER POHNPEI BY LATER TONIGHT AND CHUUK BY FRIDAY
EVENING. ONCE THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE DATE LINE
DURING THE WEEKEND...TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL START TO
WEAKEN. THIS COULD ALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE BAND OF
CONVERGING TRADES TO DECREASE.

PEAKING TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL SHOULD MAINTAIN HIGH SURF ACROSS
KOSRAE AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS. LATEST
SATELLITE ALTIMETRY ALSO INDICATES SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FEET...HAZARDOUS
FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION HAVE SPREAD WESTWARD FROM POHNPEI STATE
AND THE MARSHALLS TO CHUUK STATE. BOTH SURF AND SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE FRIDAY AND COULD FALL BELOW HAZARDOUS HEIGHTS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DISCUSSION FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST IS INCLUDED IN THE EASTERN
MICRONESIA SECTION DUE TO A SIMILAR PATTERN.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
KOROR AND YAP FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM NEAR 25N WILL BECOME A SHEAR LINE OVER THE
PHILIPPINE SEA AND POSSIBLY STALL NEAR 15N BY SATURDAY. THEN
ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING OFF CHINA MIGHT PUSH
THIS SHEAR LINE FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD BOTH LOCATIONS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/CHAN





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 280544 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
345 PM CHST WED JAN 28 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE MICRONESIAN DISCUSSIONS

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. SATELLITE SHOWS FAIR SKIES
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. CLOUDINESS NEAR 20N150E IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE. VAD GRADIENT WINDS
ARE ESE ABOUT 10 KT. LOCAL BUOYS SHOW COMBINED SEAS 5 TO 6 FT MAINLY
FROM ENE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY DRY TRADE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK SINCE MODELS INDICATE THAT PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. TRADE WINDS WILL LIKELY FRESHEN
BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY WITH A SHEAR LINE POSSIBLY FORMING ACROSS THE
LOCAL FORECAST ZONES...BUT STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO MAKE
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE-WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN MODELS INDICATE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN
BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY SO THAT MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FRESH
TO POSSIBLY STRONG EARLY NEXT WEEK. WAVES GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED
WITH LATEST WW3 MODEL GUIDANCE AND WIND GRIDS WERE REFRESHED
WITH ECMWF 27/12Z DATA.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTURBANCE ENTERED
ALONG THE EQUATOR NEAR 174E. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE...MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY AND NORTH OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH EXTENDING
WESTWARD. MAJURO WILL SEE WET CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT WHILE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE OFF-AND-ON AT KOSRAE THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS AT POHNPEI WILL PERSIST FOR THE SHORT TERM BUT WETTER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THERE BY FRIDAY. CHUUK WILL SEE CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND BUT MODELS SHOW LESS
AGREEMENT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING THERE FOR NOW.

NO SEAS-RELATED CHANGES WERE NEEDED. ALTIMETRY DATA CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SEAS AROUND 9 OR 10 FEET AT POHNPEI AND MAJURO. SURF
CALCULATIONS SUPPORT CONTINUING HAZARDOUS SURF AT KOSRAE AND MAJURO.
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS SWELL TO BE TOO SMALL TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
SURF AT CHUUK AND POHNPEI THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURF SHOULD BEGIN
TO FALL FRIDAY AT KOSRAE AND MAJURO.
&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA... DISCUSSION FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST IS INCLUDED
IN THE EASTERN MICRONESIA SECTION DUE TO A SIMILAR PATTERN.

DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS YAP AND PALAU. MODERATE TRADES AND
FAIR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SHEAR LINE IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD AND BRING INCREASING CLOUDS...SHOWERS...
WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND AND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SIMPSON/W. AYDLETT





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 280524
AFDPQ

AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESEND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
320 PM CHST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. SATELLITE SHOWS FAIR SKIES
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. CLOUDINESS NEAR 20N150E IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE. VAD GRADIENT WINDS
ARE ESE ABOUT 10 KT. LOCAL BUOYS SHOW COMBINED SEAS 5 TO 6 FT MAINLY
FROM ENE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY DRY TRADE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK SINCE MODELS INDICATE THAT PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. TRADE WINDS WILL LIKELY FRESEHEN
BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY WITH A SHEAR LINE POSSIBLY FORMING ACROSS THE
LOCAL FORECAST ZONES...BUT STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO MAKE
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE-WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN MODELS INDICATE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN
BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY SO THAT MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FRESH
TO POSSIBLY STRONG EARLY NEXT WEEK. WAVES GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED
WITH LATEST WW3 MODEL GUIDANCE AND WIND GRIDS WERE REEFRESHED
WITH ECMWF 27/12Z DATA.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...WILL BE SENT LATER.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...WILL BE SENT LATER.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SIMPSON





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 272301
AFDPQ

AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESEND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
832 AM CHST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
MARIANAS WATERS...MAINLY IN THE GUAM AND ROTA WATERS. THE VAD WIND
PROFILE REVEALS EAST WINDS OF 8 TO 13 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6
THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MARIANAS REMAIN BETWEEN THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE SHEAR
LINES. WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS WEEK. A MORE OR LESS STEADY TRADE-WIND REGIME WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN STEADY THIS WEEK...THEN EDGE UP A BIT
AROUND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
PORTION OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH PERSISTS NEAR 3N...SOUTH OF
CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. DRY FRESH TRADES TO THE NORTH ARE GOING
TO DOMINATE CHUUK AND POHNPEI THRU THURSDAY...AND KOSRAE UNTIL LATE
THIS EVENING. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY AT THE
END OF THE TROUGH SOUTH OF MAJURO NEAR 3N172E. STRONG TRADE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE IS
GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU TODAY AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MARSHALLS BY TONIGHT. AS THE
LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA CONTINUES
TO DRIFT EASTWARD ON THURSDAY...THIS COULD ALLOW THE DISTURBANCE TO
GRADUALLY MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THEREFORE...EXPECT WET WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO SPREAD OVER KOSRAE BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...POHNPEI AND CHUUK BY THURSDAY EVENING. A TRADE
CONVERGENCE ZONE CAN BE SEEN STRETCHING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE DISTURBANCE THRU THE DATE LINE TO NEAR 170W. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROLONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MAJURO THRU THURSDAY
EVENING...KOSRAE UNTIL SUNDAY...POHNPEI AND CHUUK THRU SATURDAY.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRY MODERATE TRADES MIGHT FINALLY RETURN WITH
FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REGION.

LARGE TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL WILL SUSTAIN HAZARDOUS SURF ACROSS
KOSRAE AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEA CONDITIONS
ACROSS POHNPEI STATE AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS WILL BE HAZARDOUS
FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATEST
SATELLITE ALTIMETRY DATA INDICATE SEAS ACROSS CHUUK STATE REMAIN
BETWEEN 7 AND 9 FEET. HOWEVER AS TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL
CONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARD TODAY...SEAS THERE COULD RISE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DISCUSSION FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST IS INCLUDED IN THE EASTERN MICRONESIA
SECTION DUE TO A SIMILAR PATTERN.

MODERATE TRADES ARE GOING TO MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER FOR KOROR AND YAP
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SINKING SOUTHWARD
FROM 20N WILL TRANSFORM INTO A SHEAR LINE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA BY
FRIDAY. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE COMING OFF CHINA MIGHT NUDGE IT CLOSE
ENOUGH TO KOROR AND YAP DURING THE WEEKEND. IF SO...THIS WILL
INCREASE SHOWERS AND SEAS FOR THE REGION.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/CHAN





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 270601 RRA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
357 PM CHST TUE JAN 27 2015

RESENT FOR WEB

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARIANAS AND
COASTAL WATERS WITH JUST A FEW LOW CUMULUS DRIFTING BY. A
FRAGMENTED SHEAR LINE IS FOUND FARTHER NORTH...NORTH OF PAGAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS DRY CONDITIONS WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND TURN TO
THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A COUPLE OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS PASSING BY WELL TO THE
NORTH OVER A PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS. AT THE MOMENT MODEL CONSENSUS
KEEPS FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DURING THIS
TRANSITION.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TODAY ALLOWING THE DISCONTINUATION OF THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY AT TINIAN AND SAIPAN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE FURTHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH COMBINED SEAS
EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
ASCAT ANALYSIS INDICATES A POSSIBLE CIRCULATION IS SOUTH OF MAJURO
NEAR 3N172E...AND CONVERGING SURFACE WINDS ARE TRIGGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS. SHOWERS ALSO PERSIST
ACROSS KOSRAE STATE AND ASCAT WINDS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FOCUSED ROUGHLY ALONG 5N FROM ABOUT 160E TO 170E...AND SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS COULD MOVE TOWARD POHNPEI TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FAIRLY DRY
NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS DOMINATE MOST OF CHUUK STATE FOR THE NEAR
TERM AT LEAST. MOST MODELS INDICATE THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE
ONLY SLOWLY AND WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THEN THE WHOLE PATTERN COULD MOVE TOWARD THE WEST AND WEAKEN.
A DRIER TRADE-WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RETURN TO EASTERN
MICRONESIA BY NEXT WEEK.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR MAJURO AND HSA REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR KOSRAE. LARGE TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL WILL SUSTAIN HAZARDOUS
SURF FOR MAJURO AND KOSRAE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEA CONDITIONS ACROSS
POHNPEI AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT
OPERATION THRU MIDWEEK. HAZARDOUS SEAS COULD YET DEVELOP FOR CHUUK
DEPENDING ON THE SIZE OF AN ARRIVING NORTH SWELL ALONG WITH TRADE-
WIND WAVES...AND THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DISCUSSION FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST IS INCLUDED IN THE EASTERN
MICRONESIA SECTION DUE TO A SIMILAR PATTERN.

KOROR AND YAP REMAIN BETWEEN SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC-SCALE WEATHER
FEATURES AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE THAT AN OLD
REMNANT SHEAR LINE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA COULD BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD
AND CAUSE INCREASING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS AT YAP AND POSSIBLY
KOROR BY THIS COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

W. AYDLETT/SIMPSON





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 262222
AFDPQ

AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
807 AM CHST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS ONLY A FEW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
MARIANAS WATERS...MAINLY SOUTH OF GUAM. THE VAD WIND PROFILE
REVEALS EAST WINDS OF 8 TO 12 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST 3 THOUSAND FEET
OF THE AIR WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE SHEAR LINES STAYING NORTH FOR A BIT AND DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE BEING CONFINED TO SOUTH OF 8N...MARIANAS LOOK RELATIVELY
DRY THE NEXT FEW DAYS AT LEAST. AT THIS TIME LITTLE CHANGE IS
FORESEEN AFTER THAT TIME EITHER. WILL NEED TO STAY ON THE LOOKOUT
FOR THE NEXT BIG WEATHER MAKER...SEEMS IT WILL NOT BE THIS WEEK
THOUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WILL EASE A LITTLE FROM HEIGHTS OF TODAY. OVER THE WEEKEND
THE WINDS AND SEAS COULD INCREASE AGAIN SLIGHTLY. AT THIS TIME
THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE LEADING EDGE OF FRESH SURGING TRADES CAN BE SEEN FROM CHUUK
EASTWARD TO KOSRAE. FARTHER SOUTH...A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH
STRETCHES EASTWARD FROM SOUTH OF CHUUK AT 1N150E THRU A CIRCULATION
CENTERED NEAR BUTARITARI ATOLL AT 3N173E TO END AT EQ179E.
CONVERGING TRADES JUST NORTH OF THIS TROUGH ARE TRIGGERING SPORADIC
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF POHNPEI AND KOSRAE
THIS MORNING...AND JUST SOUTH OF CHUUK EARLIER LAST NIGHT. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD PASS THRU
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. BY TONIGHT...THE CORE OF THE TRADE SURGE SHOULD
DISPLACE THE TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE EQUATOR AND ALLOW DRIER
BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE.
FARTHER EAST...A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SURGE COULD
SPARK OFF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR MAJURO THRU THIS EVENING. THE LARGE
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY EAST OF JAPAN WILL DRIFT EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS COULD ALLOW THE CIRCULATION NEAR
BUTARITARI ATOLL TO GRADUALLY LIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STARTING
WEDNESDAY. UNDER THIS SCENARIO...CONVERGING WINDS NEAR THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION CAN INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR
MAJURO THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF KOSRAE NEAR
MIDWEEK...POHNPEI AND CHUUK TOWARD THE WEEKEND...SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. BY THIS WEEKEND...A RELATIVELY DRY TRADE
REGIME WILL RETURN TO THE ENTIRE REGION.

BUILDING TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL WILL SUSTAIN HAZARDOUS SURF ON
KOSRAE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND COULD CAUSE SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS ACROSS
POHNPEI STATE AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL
CRAFT OPERATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEAS ACROSS CHUUK STATE
WILL ALSO RISE TONIGHT WHICH MIGHT BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT
AS WELL.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DISCUSSION FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST IS INCLUDED IN THE EASTERN
MICRONESIA SECTION DUE TO A SIMILAR PATTERN.

THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR 3N SOUTH OF
KOROR AND YAP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT...MODERATE
TRADES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD DOMINATE BOTH LOCALES THRU
WEDNESDAY. AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE EAST CHINA COAST ON
THURSDAY...IT WILL CHANNEL FRESH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THESE WINDS COULD RESURRECT AN OLD SHEAR
LINE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND EVENTUALLY BRING IT SOUTHWARD
CLOSER TO KOROR AND YAP AFTER MIDWEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CHST THIS MORNING FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/CHAN





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