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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 202048
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
648 AM CHST MON APR 21 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WERE PRESENT
ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL
SETTLE OVER THE MARIANAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER THE MARIANAS. DRY AIR WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE MARIANAS THOUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ALL THAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOW NEAR KOSRAE WILL MOVE WESTWARD. MODELS SHOW THIS
CIRCULATION PASSING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT
TIMING OF THESE SHOWERS IS NOT TOO HIGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALL
THAT IS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED THEN.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL AND A NORTH SWELL WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE EAST SWELL WILL BE LARGE ENOUGH
TO GENERATE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ON EAST FACING REEFS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION COVERING MUCH OF KOSRAE
STATE AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. CONVERGING TRADE WINDS OVER THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MAJURO THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD TUESDAY. A CIRCULATION ON THE
EASTERN END OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH IS CENTERED SOUTH OF
KOSRAE NEAR 3N163E. THIS WILL PROVIDE A MECHANISM FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH TODAY AND POSSIBLY TONIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING THE BULK OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF KOSRAE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE CIRCULATION NEAR
KOSRAE SHOULD NEAR POHNPEI TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS TO THE STATE. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL PERSIST AT POHNPEI AT
LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN WINDS AND SEAS WERE
IMPLEMENTED INTO THE EXISTING FORECAST.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE VERY DRY DRY AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED EXTREMELY WELL IN 00Z AND
12Z SOUNDINGS AT POHNPEI WILL MOVE OVER CHUUK TODAY. AS A
RESULT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT CHUUK TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE NEAR KOSRAE MOVES
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FARTHER WEST...TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE 98W AND ATTENDANT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER
AWAY FROM YAP STATE AND PALAU. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LIMITED
CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF 10N SO RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THESE LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LIGHT WINDS AT
KOROR WILL BOOST ISLAND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE
FAIRLY DRY WEATHER OVER PALAU THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/WILLIAMS







000
FXPQ60 PGUM 200712 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
505 PM CHST SUN APR 20 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE MICRONESIA DISCUSSIONS

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
CNMI. AN EMBEDDED CIRCULATION IS SITUATED WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
NEAR 20N145E. JTWC MEDIUM INVEST AREA 98W IS PASSING TO THE NORTH
OF KOROR. SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES WILL NOT BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST ZONES...BUT SURFACE
TROUGHING BETWEEN THEM COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
FORCING TO TRIGGER A CB OR TWO UNTIL THE TROUGHING SHIFTS FARTHER
TO THE WEST. A NEW TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH NEAR KOSRAE. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE INVOLVES ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR TONIGHT BASED ON THE PROXIMITY OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. DRY TRADE WINDS ARE
STILL ON SCHEDULE TO INVADE ON MONDAY. DRIER PATTERN WILL HANG ON
THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT POSSIBLE WEATHER MAKER IS THE SYSTEM NEAR
KOSRAE. MODELS ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT CLOUDINESS FROM
THIS SYSTEM AND AN APPROACHING SHEAR LINE WILL BE AFFECTING THE
MARIANAS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...HAVE
BROUGHT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DAYS 6 THROUGH 10.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID WEEK.
A MODERATE TRADE-WIND SURGE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...BUT SEAS AND SURF SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT A VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH FROM JAPAN DURING THE END OF THE
WEEK. EVENT APPEARS TO BE ROBUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HIGH SURF AND
CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO ADVISORY LEVELS. STILL PLENTY OF MODEL
RUNS AHEAD BUT A SCENARIO THAT CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA
A BROAD CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH CAN
BE SEEN SOUTH OF KOSRAE NEAR 3N163E. LATEST SOUNDING DATA FROM CHUUK
AND POHNPEI REVEALS MID-LEVEL DRYNESS BETWEEN 750 AND 450MB. THIS
POCKET OF DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NORTHWEST OF THE
CIRCULATION TO PROMOTE A PERIOD OF PLEASANT WEATHER FOR CHUUK THRU
MONDAY NIGHT...AND POHNPEI UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR KOSRAE...
STRONG CONVERGING LOW-LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CIRCULATION WILL MAINTAIN INCLEMENT WEATHER UNTIL AT LEAST
MONDAY EVENING. FARTHER EAST...FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS TOWARD THE EASTERN END OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION GENERATED BY THIS
PROCESS IS SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO MAJURO THIS EVENING AND THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU MONDAY NIGHT.

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTH
OF CHUUK TO BEYOND WAKE ISLAND WILL BE WEAKENED BY A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING EASTWARD FROM SOUTH OF JAPAN OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CIRCULATION AND ITS ASSOCIATED
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH TO LIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER KOSRAE AND
MAJURO TOWARD POHNPEI AND CHUUK. THEREFORE EXPECT WET WEATHER TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM KOSRAE AND MAJURO INTO POHNPEI BY MONDAY
EVENING...AND CHUUK BY TUESDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TRADES WILL THEN
USHER IN A DRYER PATTERN FOR MAJURO AND KOSRAE AROUND MIDWEEK. AS
THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI AND CHUUK...
THIS SAME DRYER PATTERN MIGHT ALSO ARRIVE AT BOTH LOCALES TOWARD THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA
REASONING FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST CAN BE FOUND UNDER THE EASTERN
MICRONESIA SECTION ABOVE. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...JTWC MEDIUM
INVEST AREA 98W IS PULLING FARTHER NORTHWEST OF KOROR AND YAP INTO
THE PHILIPPINE SEA THIS EVENING. MODEST CONVERGING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS IN ITS WAKE COULD STILL SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR YAP THRU MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SOUTH
OF THE DISTURBANCE MIGHT INDUCE ISLAND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KOROR THRU
TUESDAY. AFTERWARD GENTLE TRADES FILTERING WESTWARD FROM EASTERN
MICRONESIA SHOULD BRING IN MORE STABLE WEATHER FOR THE AREA NEAR
MIDWEEK. TOWARD THE WEEKEND...THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH EXTENDING
WESTWARD FROM THE CIRCULATION CURRENTLY SOUTH OF KOSRAE WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT YAP AND KOROR WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/CHAN










000
FXPQ60 PGUM 200545
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
345 PM CHST SUN APR 20 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
CNMI. AN EMBEDDED CIRCULATION IS SITUATED WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
NEAR 20N145E. JTWC MEDIUM INVEST AREA 98W IS PASSING TO THE NORTH
OF KOROR. SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES WILL NOT BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST ZONES...BUT SURFACE
TROUGHING BETWEEN THEM COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
FORCING TO TRIGGER A CB OR TWO UNTIL THE TROUGHING SHIFTS FARTHER
TO THE WEST. A NEW TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
NEAR- EQUATORIAL TROUGH NEAR KOSRAE. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE INVOLVES ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR TONIGHT BASED ON THE PROXIMITY OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. DRY TRADE WINDS ARE
STILL ON SCHEDULE TO INVADE ON MONDAY. DRIER PATTERN WILL HANG ON
THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT POSSIBLE WEATHER MAKER IS THE SYSTEM NEAR
KOSRAE. MODELS ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT CLOUDINESS FROM
THIS SYSTEM AND AN APPROACHING SHEAR LINE WILL BE AFFECTING THE
MARIANAS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...HAVE
BROUGHT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DAYS 6 THROUGH 10.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID WEEK.
A MODERATE TRADE-WIND SURGE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...BUT SEAS AND SURF SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT A VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH FROM JAPAN DURING THE END OF THE
WEEK. EVENT APPEARS TO BE ROBUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HIGH SURF AND
CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO ADVISORY LEVELS. STILL PLENTY OF MODEL
RUNS AHEAD BUT A SCENARIO THAT CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...WILL BE ADDED LATER.


&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...WILL BE ADDED LATER.


&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/CHAN







000
FXPQ60 PGUM 192100
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
700 AM CHST SUN APR 20 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WERE PRESENT
ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED WEST
OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST. A CIRCULATION IS LOCATED
NEAR ULITHI THIS MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH FROM
THE CIRCULATION TO JUST WEST OF THE MARIANAS. WEAK CONVERGENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK. MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER
CIRCULATION PASSING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. NOT CERTAIN IF IT WILL GENERATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL AND A NORTH SWELL WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE EAST SWELL WILL BE LARGE ENOUGH
TO GENERATE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ON EAST FACING REEFS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE HAS INCREASED AS ANTICIPATED SOUTHEAST OF
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS ALLOWING WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL PUSH NORTH AND WEST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS JUST OT THE SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO BUT MAIN FORCING WILL
ARRIVE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT SO HELD OFF ON SCATTERED WORDING
UNTIL THEN. A WEAK CIRCULATION ON THE TAIL END OF A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO KOSRAE STATE TODAY. MODELS INDICATE MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL LIFT NORTH OF KOSRAE WATERS BY TONIGHT. THIS SAME
DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO
POHNPEI LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY SO ADDED SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A NARROW
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY NEAR CHUUK BUT SHOWER COVERAGE REMAINS
RATHER SPARSE. MODEL INITIALIZATION CORRESPONDS WELL WITH CURRENT
SATELLITE DEPICTION A REGION OF SUBSIDENCE OVER POHNPEI. THIS DRY
AIR MASS WILL MOVE WESTWARD OVER CHUUK MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
LEAVING LITTLE CHANCE FOR SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH AND DISTURBANCE
SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CHUUK TUESDAY.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN YAP STATE. EXPANSIVE DEEP CONVECTION FLARED UP OVERNIGHT
BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF DIMINISHING OVER YAP. BURSTS OF
CONVECTION HAVE BEEN CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF 98W
NORTHEAST OF YAP NEAR 10N139E WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS AT YAP
INDICATING STRATIFORM RAIN IS ENDING. MODELS SHOW FUTURE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT STAYING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF YAP SO
BACKED OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN FACT...A RAPID
DRYING TREND IS MORE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS 98W BECOMES
BETTER ORGANIZED. ACTIVE WEATHER SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF
KOROR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS 98W PASSES TO THE NORTH. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TODAY GRADUALLY BACKING TO
TO THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/WILLIAMS







000
FXPQ60 PGUM 190701 CCA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
428 PM CHST SAT APR 19 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
RADAR REVEALS ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN THE MARIANAS MARINE ZONES
WITH THUNDERSTORMS BUILDING JUST WEST OF THE GUAM MARINE ZONE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CIRCULATION CENTER AT ABOUT 11N142E
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM WITH CONVECTION BEING SHEARED MAINLY SOUTHWEST
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CONVECTION NOW COVERS YAP
AND KOROR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PRIOR FORECAST. THE MARIANAS MARINE ZONES ARE
LOCATED EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM THE CIRCULATION
CENTER AT 11N142E TO ABOUT 23N150E. THE MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CIRCULATION AND TROUGH BUT SATELLITE
AND RADAR INDICATE ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. THE MARIANAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THIS PATTERN INTO SUNDAY AS THE CIRCULATION AND
TROUGH MOVE WESTWARD. ANOTHER CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL BE LARGE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A MODERATE
RIP CURRENT RISK ON EAST FACING REEFS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF BOTH KOSRAE AND
POHNPEI. CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO CONCENTRATE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH NEAR KOSRAE. A SURFACE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
CONVECTION HAS CROSSED THE DATE LINE AND IS APPROACHING MAJURO.
FORECAST FOR MAJURO FOLLOWS PERSISTENCE. NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH IS
NOT A PLAYER IN THE FORECAST. INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY BRINGS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE EAST. FOR KOSRAE...ADDED SCATTERED
SHOWERS TONIGHT BASED ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVERHEAD. MODELS
SUGGEST CONVECTION NEAR KOSRAE COULD PERSIST BEYOND TONIGHT...BUT
HELD OFF ON EXTENDING DURATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS BASED ON SMALL
AREAL COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR KOSRAE.
FOR POHNPEI...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN UNSETTLED WEATHER THERE THROUGH DAY 5.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH HEADS EASTWARD FROM 10N130E TO PASS JUST
NORTH OF KOROR AND JUST SOUTH OF YAP...THEN TURNS SOUTHEASTWARD TO
PASS SOUTH OF CHUUK NEAR 5N. 98W HAS BEEN SHOWING AN EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER CONNECTED
WITH 98W IS THE MONSOON TAIL. TAIL HAS GROWN DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY SHIFT AND HAS ENVELOPED BOTH YAP AND KOROR. ACCORDINGLY...
HAVE BEEFED UP POPS AND WINDS FOR BOTH THE YAP AND KOROR FORECASTS
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE MONSOON
TAIL WELL. WILL ASSUME 98W CONTINUES HEADING WESTWARD. FUTURE SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO BEEF UP THE FORECASTS FOR YAP AND KOROR EVEN MORE IF
MONSOON TAIL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. WIND FORECAST FOR KOROR ASSUMES
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND
TONIGHT. FORECAST FOR CHUUK MAINTAINS THE RELATIVELY DRY TRADE-WIND
PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY BRINGS IN
WEATHER FROM THE EAST ON TUESDAY VIA MOSTLY CLOUDY/SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER WORDING. MODELS DEVELOP A CIRCULATION IN THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
TROUGH EAST OF CHUUK BY TUESDAY...BUT DIFFER IN THE EVOLUTION AND
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
THE CHUUK FORECAST UNTIL THE PICTURE FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 COMES INTO
CLEARER FOCUS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

DEVITA/MCELROY










000
FXPQ60 PGUM 190628
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
428 PM CHST SAT APR 19 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
RADAR REVEALS ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN THE MARIANAS MARINE ZONES
WITH THUNDERSTORMS BUILDING JUST WEST OF THE GUAM MARINE ZONE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CIRCULATION CENTER AT ABOUT 11N142E
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM WITH CONVECTION BEING SHEARED MAINLY SOUTHWEST
OF THE CONVECTION CENTER. THE CONVECTION NOW COVERS YAP AND
KOROR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PRIOR FORECAST. THE MARIANAS MARINE ZONES ARE
LOCATED EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM THE CIRCULATION
CENTER AT 11N142E TO ABOUT 23N150E. THE MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CIRCULATION AND TROUGH BUT SATELLITE
AND RADAR INDICATE ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. THE MARIANAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THIS PATTERN INTO SUNDAY AS THE CIRCULATION AND
TROUGH MOVE WESTWARD. ANOTHER CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL BE LARGE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A MODERATE
RIP CURRENT RISK ON EAST FACING REEFS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF BOTH KOSRAE AND
POHNPEI. CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO CONCENTRATE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH NEAR KOSRAE. A SURFACE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
CONVECTION HAS CROSSED THE DATE LINE AND IS APPROACHING MAJURO.
FORECAST FOR MAJURO FOLLOWS PERSISTENCE. NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH IS
NOT A PLAYER IN THE FORECAST. INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY BRINGS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE EAST. FOR KOSRAE...ADDED SCATTERED
SHOWERS TONIGHT BASED ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVERHEAD. MODELS
SUGGEST CONVECTION NEAR KOSRAE COULD PERSIST BEYOND TONIGHT...BUT
HELD OFF ON EXTENDING DURATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS BASED ON SMALL
AREAL COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR KOSRAE.
FOR POHNPEI...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN UNSETTLED WEATHER THERE THROUGH DAY 5.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH HEADS EASTWARD FROM 10N130E TO PASS JUST
NORTH OF KOROR AND JUST SOUTH OF YAP...THEN TURNS SOUTHEASTWARD TO
PASS SOUTH OF CHUUK NEAR 5N. 98W HAS BEEN SHOWING AN EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER CONNECTED
WITH 98W IS THE MONSOON TAIL. TAIL HAS GROWN DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY SHIFT AND HAS ENVELOPED BOTH YAP AND KOROR. ACCORDINGLY...
HAVE BEEFED UP POPS AND WINDS FOR BOTH THE YAP AND KOROR FORECASTS
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE MONSOON
TAIL WELL. WILL ASSUME 98W CONTINUES HEADING WESTWARD. FUTURE SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO BEEF UP THE FORECASTS FOR YAP AND KOROR EVEN MORE IF
MONSOON TAIL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. WIND FORECAST FOR KOROR ASSUMES
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND
TONIGHT. FORECAST FOR CHUUK MAINTAINS THE RELATIVELY DRY TRADE-WIND
PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY BRINGS IN
WEATHER FROM THE EAST ON TUESDAY VIA MOSTLY CLOUDY/SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER WORDING. MODELS DEVELOP A CIRCULATION IN THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
TROUGH EAST OF CHUUK BY TUESDAY...BUT DIFFER IN THE EVOLUTION AND
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
THE CHUUK FORECAST UNTIL THE PICTURE FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 COMES INTO
CLEARER FOCUS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

DEVITA/MCELROY







000
FXPQ60 PGUM 182023
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
623 AM CHST SAT APR 19 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...EAST TRADE-WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE PRESENT
ACROSS THE MARIANAS AS A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PASSES SOUTH OF GUAM
THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST. A CIRCULATION IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF GUAM THIS MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH FROM
THE CIRCULATION TO JUST EAST OF THE MARIANAS. AS THE CIRCULATION
MOVES WEST THE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MARIANAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE CIRCULATION AND TROUGH. REALITY DIFFERS FROM
THE MODEL PREDICTIONS. RADAR AND SATELLITE DOES SHOW SHOWERS BUT
THE COVERAGE IS ISOLATED. AN UPPER-LEVEL DRY LAYER AND
CONVERGENCE HAS PREVENTED SHOWERS FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD. THERE
WERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SEEN ON RADAR AND DISTANT LIGHTNING WAS
SPOTTED AFTER MIDNIGHT SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK. MODELS DO
SHOW ANOTHER CIRCULATION PASSING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF THE CURRENT SITUATION
AND WILL WAIT AND SEE BEFORE ADDING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL AND A NORTH SWELL WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS WILL BE LARGE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ON NORTH FACING REEFS TODAY
AND ON EAST FACING REEFS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
DRIER WEATHER HAS MOVED OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTHEAST AS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
KOSRAE MOVES FARTHER SOUTHWEST OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAJURO
LATE SUNDAY AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO A
DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE NEAR THE GILBERT ISLANDS. A TRADE-WIND
CONVERGENCE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION BUT
SHOWERS SHOULD STAY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF MAJURO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS MAKING WESTWARD
PROGRESS TOWARDS KOSRAE. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN THIS
AFTERNOON OVER KOSRAE WATERS AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES OVER THE
STATE. RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT POHNPEI THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MODELS INDICATE ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNING FOR MOST OF
EASTERN MICRONESIA TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER ACROSS
CHUUK WATERS. CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF CHUUK CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND WILL PASS MAINLY NORTH OF CHUUK WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS
SHOULD REDEVELOP NORTH OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. THE NEXT
WEATHER MAKER IS PROGGED TO AFFECT CHUUK LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD POSSIBLY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. EXTENSIVE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS STREAMING
WESTWARD OVER YAP FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE 98W CENTERED SOUTH OF GUAM NEAR 11N145E. SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AT
YAP AS THE CENTER OF 98W NEARS. MODELS SHOW THE LLCC OF 98W
PASSING VERY NEAR YAP SUNDAY MORNING SO ALTERED WINDS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BUT 98W HAS
DISPLAYED SEEMINGLY RANDOM CONVECTIVE BURSTS OVER THE LAST 48
HOURS SO DIFFICULTY REMAINS IN PINPOINTING EXACT LOCATION AND
TIMING OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
98W SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH OF KOROR EARLY NEXT WEEK. RELATIVELY
DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL EXIST AT
KOROR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/WILLIAMS







000
FXPQ60 PGUM 180856 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
655 PM CHST FRI APR 18 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
JTWC LOW SUSPECT AREA 98W IS CENTERED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM NEAR
10N146E. 98W SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND LOOKS
RATHER ANEMIC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM 98W TO
NEAR 14N150E. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH BUT COVERAGE HAS BEEN LIMITED. A DIFFUSE SHEAR LINE
RUNS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER PAGAN...BUT THIS FEATURE HAS
BEEN BACKING UP TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST ZONES.
RADAR AND SATELLITE HAVE BEEN SHOWING SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...THEN FALLING APART BEFORE THEY REACH THE GUAM MARINE
ZONES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FIRING NEAR 98W. WATER VAPOR
LOOP AND GFS40 200MB WIND FIELDS SHOW A TUTT PASSING OVER SAIPAN
FROM EAST- NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST. A RELATED ZONE OF STRONG
UPPER- LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE FORECAST
ZONES...WHILE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FOUND FROM SOUTH OF GUAM TO
NEAR 10N.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE BACKS OFF CONSIDERABLY ON SHORT TERM POPS.
MODEL AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GFS 40 TIME-HEIGHT
CROSS SECTION SHOWS PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL DRYING OVERHEAD THROUGH 06Z
SUNDAY. DID KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT. DRY TRADES ARE STILL ON SCHEDULE TO ASSERT
THEMSELVES FROM MONDAY THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MARINE SWELL GRIDS BUT OVERALL STORY
REMAINS THE SAME. LATEST ALTIMETRY AND BUOY READINGS INITIALIZE
COMBINED SEAS BETWEEN 6 AND 7 FEET. CDIP BUOY DIRECTIONAL SPECTRUM
SHOWS NORTH SWELL PREDOMINANT AT BOTH THE RITIDIAN AND TANAPAG
BUOYS. CONSEQUENTLY ADDED A FOOT TO NORTH SWELL AND SUBTRACTED A
FOOT FROM THE EAST SWELL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. STILL EXPECT SURF ON
NORTH FACING REEFS TO SUBSIDE BELOW MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK LEVELS
BY SUNDAY AND SURF ALONG EAST FACING REEFS TO GRADUALLY BUILD BUT
REMAIN AT MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK LEVELS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

UPDATED TO ADD MICRONESIA DISCUSSION

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER WILL BE SEEN OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA AS
TRADES CONTINUE TO PUSH IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH SHOULD
STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF KOSRAE BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE THRU SATURDAY NIGHT AS BEING SEEN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
POHNPEI SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH OF THE CONVECTION SO THAT FAIR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TRADE WINDS WILL
USHER IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MAJURO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IN THE LONGER TERM...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MIGHT INCREASE NEAR MID-WEEK
AS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED CIRCULATION COULD LIFT A
BIT FURTHER NORTH.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE CIRCULATION SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AT 10N146E IS GETTING SHEARED WITH
CONVERGENCE ALOFT AS OPPOSED TO THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT THAT IT NEEDS
TO DEVELOP. THIS MAKES THE EARLIER FORECASTS FOR YAP AND KOROR TO BE
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...SO MADE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY. SATELLITE
SHOWS THE CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED...AND CELLS OF CONVECTION BETWEEN
8N AND 12N FROM 145E TO 139E ARE MOVING TOWARD YAP. A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS CENTERED AT 9N148E WITH OTHER STORMS NEARBY. THIS
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS YAP ALONG WITH
THE CIRCULATION DURING THIS WEEKEND. CONVERGING WINDS SOUTH OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH WERE TRIGGERING NARROW BANDS OF CONVECTION
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF KOROR THIS AFTERNOON FROM 7N130E TO
5N144E. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STAY THERE AT LEAST THRU
SATURDAY EVENING. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO AMEND THE KOROR
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY IF THIS CONVECTION BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD
CLOSER TO KOROR. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CHUUK FORECAST. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THERE AS THE CIRCULATION CURRENTLY
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM MOVES WEST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FROM THE EAST
COULD BRING MORE SHOWERS MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/DEVITA







000
FXPQ60 PGUM 180604
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
404 PM CHST FRI APR 18 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
JTWC LOW SUSPECT AREA 98W IS CENTERED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
NEAR 10N146E. 98W SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
AND LOOKS RATHER ANEMIC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD
FROM 98W TO NEAR 14N150E. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT COVERAGE HAS BEEN LIMITED. A
DIFFUSE SHEAR LINE RUNS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER
PAGAN...BUT THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN BACKING UP TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST ZONES. RADAR AND SATELLITE HAVE BEEN
SHOWING SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST...THEN FALLING
APART BEFORE THEY REACH THE GUAM MARINE ZONES. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FIRING NEAR 98W. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND
GFS40 200MB WIND FIELDS SHOW A TUTT PASSING OVER SAIPAN FROM
EAST- NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST. A RELATED ZONE OF STRONG
UPPER- LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE FORECAST
ZONES... WHILE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FOUND FROM SOUTH OF GUAM
TO NEAR 10N.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE BACKS OFF CONSIDERABLY ON SHORT TERM
POPS. MODEL AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GFS
40 TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTION SHOWS PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL DRYING
OVERHEAD THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. DID KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT. DRY TRADES ARE
STILL ON SCHEDULE TO ASSERT THEMSELVES FROM MONDAY THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MARINE SWELL GRIDS BUT OVERALL
STORY REMAINS THE SAME. LATEST ALTIMETRY AND BUOY READINGS
INITIALIZE COMBINED SEAS BETWEEN 6 AND 7 FEET. CDIP BUOY
DIRECTIONAL SPECTRUM SHOWS NORTH SWELL PREDOMINANT AT BOTH THE
RITIDIAN AND TANAPAG BUOYS. CONSEQUENTLY ADDED A FOOT TO NORTH
SWELL AND SUBTRACTED A FOOT FROM THE EAST SWELL TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. STILL EXPECT SURF ON NORTH FACING REEFS TO SUBSIDE
BELOW MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK LEVELS BY SUNDAY AND SURF ALONG
EAST FACING REEFS TO GRADUALLY BUILD BUT REMAIN AT MODERATE RIP
CURRENT RISK LEVELS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...WILL BE PROVIDED LATER.


&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...WILL BE PROVIDED LATER.


&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/DEVITA







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