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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 012104
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
704 AM CHST THU OCT 2 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
TYPHOON PHANFONE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE
MARIANAS. MONSOON TROUGH HEADS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM PHANFONE TO
LINK UP WITH A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED NEAR
KOSRAE. LOW-LEVEL WINDS CONVERGING SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
FORECAST ZONES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOLLOWS PERSISTENCE WITH SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS. MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE IN KEEPING THE AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN
THE VICINITY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
SCATTERED ACCORDINGLY FOR THIS TIME FRAME. WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN
PHANFONE AND THE DISTURBANCE WILL REDUCE SHOWER COVERAGE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY... THEN WEATHER DETERIORATES ONCE AGAIN AS THE KOSRAE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. MODELS GENERALLY TRACK THE DISTURBANCE
NORTH OF SAIPAN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL ASSUME
THE DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH OF SAIPAN AND HAVE CAPPED WIND
SPEEDS DURING THE TIME OF PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE IN THE 20 TO
25-KNOT RANGE. IF THE DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS AS PROGGED BY THE
MODELS...WIND GRIDS MAY HAVE TO BE BEEFED UP FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN VIGOROUS MONSOONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE MARIANAS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...SO HAVE
UPDATED THE WIND GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...SO HAVE
DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. PRIMARY SOUTHWEST SWELL
CONTINUE TO VERIFY IN THE VICINITY OF 6 FEET WITH A 10-SECOND
PERIOD...SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SOUTH AND WEST
-FACING REEFS. STILL EXPECT LONG PERIOD SWELL TO SUBSIDE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW SURF TO FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
FOR MAJURO...BETTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN OVER THE RALIK CHAIN CLOSER
TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED JUST EAST
OF KOSRAE...WHILE CALMER CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ALONG THE RATAK
CHAIN.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LONG-TERM
ACROSS THE REGION AS MODELS MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
GFS...IN PARTICULAR...PROGS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TO REACH THE
MARSHALLS FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY...MOVING WEST ACROSS KOSRAE
AND POHNPEI STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR KOSRAE...IR SATELLITE SHOWS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE. THE JTWC HAS OPENED 90W INVEST ON THIS DISTURBANCE...
WHICH IS CENTERED EAST-NORTHEAST OF KOSRAE NEAR 6N165E. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ON KOSRAE.
THIS WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON KOSRAE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS 90W
TRACKS WEST- NORTHWESTWARD. 12Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20 TO 25 KT WINDS
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...LIGHTER WINDS ARE SEEN WEST OF
THE CENTER ACROSS KOSRAE STATE. MAIN SHORT TERM WEATHER CONCERN
WILL BE RAINFALL...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING AND GENERATING CHOPPIER
SEAS ACROSS THE STATE. 90W WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS IT
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ADDED TO THE POHNPEI FORECAST FOR TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH 90W HAS ALREADY
OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE STATE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK LIES IN THE AREA OF FAIR WEATHER BETWEEN THE BROAD MONSOON
PATTERN SOUTH OF TYPHOON PHANFONE AND JTWC INVEST AREA 90W NEAR
KOSRAE. PLEASANT WEATHER WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THE NEXT FEW DAYS THERE. MODELS TRACK 90W TOWARD THE
WEST- NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 90W WOULD THEN PASS
NORTH OF CHUUK SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AS THE MONSOON STRENGTHENS ACROSS CHUUK STATE IN
RESPONSE TO 90W.

FOR KOROR AND YAP...A WET MONSOON PATTERN IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS HAVE SUBSIDED THIS MORNING BUT IR
SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS ANOTHER SURGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING UP WEST OF YAP AND NORTH OF KOROR.
THEREFORE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME THIS MORNING
AFTER THE BRIEF OVERNIGHT LULL. THE MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THE NEXT FEW DAYS WELL SOUTH OF PHANFONE...BEING
REINVIGORATED LATER IN THE WEEKEND BY THE NEXT TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE WHICH IS NOW LOCATED NEAR KOSRAE. WILL HAVE TO SEE
JUST HOW EXACTLY 90W WILL EVOLVE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FUTURE TRACK
AND EVOLUTION OF 90W BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN. THEREFORE...
LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR KOROR AND YAP IS LOW.

ASCAT SHOWS A SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS SPREADING ACROSS YAP
STATE AND 15 TO 20 KT WINDS ACROSS PALAU. MODELS KEEP THESE WINDS
IN PLACE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...MONSOON SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD. SWELL WILL GENERATE HAZARDOUS SURF OF 8 TO 10
FEET TODAY ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING REEFS. WAVE MODEL SHOWS
THIS SWELL SUBSIDING BY THE WEEKEND...BUT SURF WILL HOVER AT OR
JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AT LEAST UNTIL NEXT WEEK. A BUILDING
NORTH SWELL WILL BE ARRIVING SUNDAY OR MONDAY FROM THE DISTANT
TYPHOON PHANFONE.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST SATURDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/M. AYDLETT







000
FXPQ60 PGUM 010832 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ADDED MICRONESIAN DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
635 PM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
TS PHANFONE IS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...AND FOR THE TIME
BEING THE WEATHER OVER THE MARIANAS IS SETTLING DOWN. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST OF KOSRAE MAY POSE A THREAT TO THE MARIANAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LINGER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS MONSOON FLOW PERSISTS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL STORM. THIS
WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN THE MARIANAS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION
GFS BRINGS A SURGE OF MOISTURE THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE NEXT DISTURBANCE NEAR KOSRAE...AND GFS
BRINGS IT ON A PATH SIMILAR TO PHANFONE...APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
MARIANAS AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR TYPHOON MON-TUE. STILL A
FAIR LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY...BUT IT IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP
A CLOSE WATCH ON.

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THRU THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST SWELL PLUS WIND WAVE WILL STIR
UP SOME HAZARDOUS SURF ALONG WEST AND SOUTH FACING SHORES TONIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. IN ADDITION...LINGERING NORTH SWELL WILL BRING
HAZARDOUS SURF TO NORTH SHORES OF GUAM AND ROTA TONIGHT.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE EASTERN PORTION OF A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM TYPHOON
PHANFONE...LOCATED NORTHWEST OF CHUUK AND GUAM TO A CIRCULATION
WHICH IS EAST OF KOSRAE. CONVERGENCE AROUND THE CIRCULATION AND A
CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM MAJURO EASTWARD WILL BRING KOSRAE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND MAJURO UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REACH POHNPEI
THURSDAY AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTH OF
POHNPEI.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK RIDGE WILL AFFECT CHUUK INTO FRIDAY. THE CIRCULATION THAT IS
NOW JUST EAST OF KOSRAE IS PROGGED TO TRACK WELL NORTH OF CHUUK
LEAVING CHUUK IN RELATIVELY PLEASANT WEATHER. YAP AND KOROR ARE
PROGGED TO REMAIN IN THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
WESTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST SATURDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST THURSDAY
     FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA










000
FXPQ60 PGUM 010625
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
425 PM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
TS PHANFONE IS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...AND FOR THE TIME
BEING THE WEATHER OVER THE MARIANAS IS SETTLING DOWN. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST OF KOSRAE MAY POSE A THREAT TO THE MARIANAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LINGER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS MONSOON FLOW PERSISTS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL STORM. THIS
WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN THE MARIANAS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION
GFS BRINGS A SURGE OF MOISTURE THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE NEXT DISTURBANCE NEAR KOSRAE...AND GFS
BRINGS IT ON A PATH SIMILAR TO PHANFONE...APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
MARIANAS AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR TYPHOON MON-TUE. STILL A
FAIR LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY...BUT IT IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP
A CLOSE WATCH ON.

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THRU THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST SWELL PLUS WIND WAVE WILL STIR
UP SOME HAZARDOUS SURF ALONG WEST AND SOUTH FACING SHORES TONIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. IN ADDITION...LINGERING NORTH SWELL WILL BRING
HAZARDOUS SURF TO NORTH SHORES OF GUAM AND ROTA TONIGHT.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
WILL BE ADDED WHEN AVAILABLE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
WILL BE ADDED WHEN AVAILABLE.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST SATURDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST THURSDAY
     FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA







000
FXPQ60 PGUM 010323 AAB
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
123 PM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
PHANFONE HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST OF THE FAR NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAVE LIKELY ENDED.
AS A RESULT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FAR NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

&&

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
AS OF 500 AM...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE WAS LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES
NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN AND WAS MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS TO THE WEST
AROUND 13 MPH. PHANFONE IS AFFECTING THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS TODAY...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS. A MONSOON TROUGH RUNS
THROUGH PHANFONE AND EXTENDS 125 TO 200 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE MARIANAS...PLACING THE ISLANDS UNDER A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS. AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL KEEP WET CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE WILL DOMINATE LOCAL WEATHER
TODAY. AS OF 500 AM...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE WAS LOCATED ABOUT 140
MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN AND WAS MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS TO
THE WEST AROUND 13 MPH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS POSTED FOR
THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS INCLUDING ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN...
WHICH CURRENTLY LIE UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CORE OF PHANFONE.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HIGH SURF...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER THESE ISLANDS THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS PHANFONE MOVES OFF TO THE WEST.
SEE THE TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT...GUMHLSPQ2...FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE REST OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS FROM SAIPAN TO GUAM WILL REMAIN
UNDER A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
PHANFONE TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...
THOUGH A PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN SOAKING GUAM THIS
MORNING. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM GUAM LATER TODAY...
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLOODING RAIN REMAINING OVER SAIPAN.

PHANFONE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...PLACING THE ENTIRE
ISLAND CHAIN UNDER A BREEZY AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR SAIPAN CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL HAVE TO BE
REASSESSED. REGARDLESS...ALL ISLANDS CAN EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO DROP JUST A NOTCH ALONG WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WET
CONDITIONS PERSIST. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...THOUGH MOIST AND CONVERGENT FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN WET CONDITIONS.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL DROP AND BACK OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. THE MOIST CONVERGENT MONSOON SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL SHIFT
TO THE WEST OF THE MARIANAS...LEAVING THE ISLANDS UNDER DRIER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
CONFUSED SEAS FROM VARIOUS SOURCES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH COMBINED
SEAS RUNNING AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET. HIGHER SEAS ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SAIPAN. NORTH SWELL WILL HOLD IN THE 4 FOOT 11
SECONDS RANGE...INCREASING SHORT-PERIOD...SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL
SWELL WILL GRADUALLY BUILD...AND SOME NORTHWESTERLY ENERGY WILL
ARRIVE FROM PHANFONE. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
BUILDING SHORT-PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL. THE RESULTANT SURF WILL
BE NEARING HIGH SURF LEVELS ALONG WEST FACING SHORES ON THURSDAY
THEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...A
NORTHWEST SWELL FROM THEN DISTANT PHANFONE COULD PRODUCE HIGH SURF
ON NORTH SHORES.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FROM SAIPAN TO GUAM TODAY...
WITH WINDS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE EXPECTED OVER WATERS
NORTH OF SAIPAN. WINDS UP TO 30 KT WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR MAJURO THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEK...PASSING
WELL NORTH OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS EAST OF THE DISTURBANCE. FOR
MAJURO...UNSETTLED WEATHER APPEARS MOST LIKELY ON TODAY...
POTENTIALLY EXTENDING INTO FRIDAY. KOSRAE AND POHNPEI WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THE DISTURBANCE...BUT PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.


&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONSIDERABLE CONVERGENCE IN THE RELATIVELY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS KEEPING A BAND OF OVERCAST CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOUDY AND RATHER WET DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR KOROR AND YAP...AND LESS SO FOR CHUUK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN WATERS
THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

&&

$$

WROE








000
FXPQ60 PGUM 302345 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
945 AM CHST TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE BULK OF THE HEAVY SHOWERS NEAR THE CORE OF PHANFONE HAVE LIFTED
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS. ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVY
SHOWERS LIES 250 MILES OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING THE ISLANDS UNDER A
SLIGHTLY DRIER FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN
THIS SCENARIO...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SAIPAN IS CANCELLED.

&&

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
AS OF 500 AM...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE WAS LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES
NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN AND WAS MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS TO THE WEST
AROUND 13 MPH. PHANFONE IS AFFECTING THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS TODAY...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS. A MONSOON TROUGH RUNS
THROUGH PHANFONE AND EXTENDS 125 TO 200 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE MARIANAS...PLACING THE ISLANDS UNDER A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS. AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL KEEP WET CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE WILL DOMINATE LOCAL WEATHER
TODAY. AS OF 500 AM...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE WAS LOCATED ABOUT 140
MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN AND WAS MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS TO
THE WEST AROUND 13 MPH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS POSTED FOR
THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS INCLUDING ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN...
WHICH CURRENTLY LIE UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CORE OF PHANFONE.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HIGH SURF...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER THESE ISLANDS THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS PHANFONE MOVES OFF TO THE WEST.
SEE THE TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT...GUMHLSPQ2...FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE REST OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS FROM SAIPAN TO GUAM WILL REMAIN
UNDER A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
PHANFONE TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...
THOUGH A PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN SOAKING GUAM THIS
MORNING. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM GUAM LATER TODAY...
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLOODING RAIN REMAINING OVER SAIPAN.

PHANFONE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...PLACING THE ENTIRE
ISLAND CHAIN UNDER A BREEZY AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR SAIPAN CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL HAVE TO BE
REASSESSED. REGARDLESS...ALL ISLANDS CAN EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO DROP JUST A NOTCH ALONG WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WET
CONDITIONS PERSIST. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...THOUGH MOIST AND CONVERGENT FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN WET CONDITIONS.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL DROP AND BACK OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. THE MOIST CONVERGENT MONSOON SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL SHIFT
TO THE WEST OF THE MARIANAS...LEAVING THE ISLANDS UNDER DRIER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
CONFUSED SEAS FROM VARIOUS SOURCES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH COMBINED
SEAS RUNNING AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET. HIGHER SEAS ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SAIPAN. NORTH SWELL WILL HOLD IN THE 4 FOOT 11
SECONDS RANGE...INCREASING SHORT-PERIOD...SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL
SWELL WILL GRADUALLY BUILD...AND SOME NORTHWESTERLY ENERGY WILL
ARRIVE FROM PHANFONE. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
BUILDING SHORT-PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL. THE RESULTANT SURF WILL
BE NEARING HIGH SURF LEVELS ALONG WEST FACING SHORES ON THURSDAY
THEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...A
NORTHWEST SWELL FROM THEN DISTANT PHANFONE COULD PRODUCE HIGH SURF
ON NORTH SHORES.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FROM SAIPAN TO GUAM TODAY...
WITH WINDS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE EXPECTED OVER WATERS
NORTH OF SAIPAN. WINDS UP TO 30 KT WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR MAJURO THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEK...PASSING
WELL NORTH OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS EAST OF THE DISTURBANCE. FOR
MAJURO...UNSETTLED WEATHER APPEARS MOST LIKELY ON TODAY...
POTENTIALLY EXTENDING INTO FRIDAY. KOSRAE AND POHNPEI WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THE DISTURBANCE...BUT PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.


&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONSIDERABLE CONVERGENCE IN THE RELATIVELY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS KEEPING A BAND OF OVERCAST CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOUDY AND RATHER WET DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR KOROR AND YAP...AND LESS SO FOR CHUUK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN WATERS
THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

&&

$$

WROE








000
FXPQ60 PGUM 302006
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
600 AM CHST TUE SEP 30 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
AS OF 500 AM...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE WAS LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES
NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN AND WAS MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS TO THE WEST
AROUND 13 MPH. PHANFONE IS AFFECTING THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS TODAY...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS. A MONSOON TROUGH RUNS
THROUGH PHANFONE AND EXTENDS 125 TO 200 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE MARIANAS...PLACING THE ISLANDS UNDER A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS. AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL KEEP WET CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE WILL DOMINATE LOCAL WEATHER
TODAY. AS OF 500 AM...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE WAS LOCATED ABOUT 140
MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN AND WAS MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS TO
THE WEST AROUND 13 MPH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS POSTED FOR
THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS INCLUDING ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN...
WHICH CURRENTLY LIE UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CORE OF PHANFONE.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HIGH SURF...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER THESE ISLANDS THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS PHANFONE MOVES OFF TO THE WEST.
SEE THE TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT...GUMHLSPQ2...FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE REST OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS FROM SAIPAN TO GUAM WILL REMAIN
UNDER A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
PHANFONE TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...
THOUGH A PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN SOAKING GUAM THIS
MORNING. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM GUAM LATER TODAY...
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLOODING RAIN REMAINING OVER SAIPAN.

PHANFONE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...PLACING THE ENTIRE
ISLAND CHAIN UNDER A BREEZY AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR SAIPAN CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL HAVE TO BE
REASSESSED. REGARDLESS...ALL ISLANDS CAN EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO DROP JUST A NOTCH ALONG WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WET
CONDITIONS PERSIST. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...THOUGH MOIST AND CONVERGENT FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN WET CONDITIONS.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL DROP AND BACK OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. THE MOIST CONVERGENT MONSOON SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL SHIFT
TO THE WEST OF THE MARIANAS...LEAVING THE ISLANDS UNDER DRIER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
CONFUSED SEAS FROM VARIOUS SOURCES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH COMBINED
SEAS RUNNING AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET. HIGHER SEAS ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SAIPAN. NORTH SWELL WILL HOLD IN THE 4 FOOT 11
SECONDS RANGE...INCREASING SHORT-PERIOD...SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL
SWELL WILL GRADUALLY BUILD...AND SOME NORTHWESTERLY ENERGY WILL
ARRIVE FROM PHANFONE. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
BUILDING SHORT-PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL. THE RESULTANT SURF WILL
BE NEARING HIGH SURF LEVELS ALONG WEST FACING SHORES ON THURSDAY
THEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...A
NORTHWEST SWELL FROM THEN DISTANT PHANFONE COULD PRODUCE HIGH SURF
ON NORTH SHORES.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FROM SAIPAN TO GUAM TODAY...
WITH WINDS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE EXPECTED OVER WATERS
NORTH OF SAIPAN. WINDS UP TO 30 KT WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR MAJURO THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEK...PASSING
WELL NORTH OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS EAST OF THE DISTURBANCE. FOR
MAJURO...UNSETTLED WEATHER APPEARS MOST LIKELY ON TODAY...
POTENTIALLY EXTENDING INTO FRIDAY. KOSRAE AND POHNPEI WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THE DISTURBANCE...BUT PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.


&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONSIDERABLE CONVERGENCE IN THE RELATIVELY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS KEEPING A BAND OF OVERCAST CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOUDY AND RATHER WET DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR KOROR AND YAP...AND LESS SO FOR CHUUK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR SAIPAN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN WATERS
THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

&&

$$

WROE







000
FXPQ60 PGUM 301504 AAB
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1250 AM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN.
THE TYPHOON WATCH FOR ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

&&

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MONSOON TROUGH LOCATED OVER GUAM
AS TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE HAS MOVED PASSED THE ISLAND
CHAIN...LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
STORM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON LATER TODAY...BUT NOT SOON
ENOUGH TO ACTUALLY BRING TYPHOON STRENGTH WINDS OVER ALAMAGAN AND
PAGAN. THEREFORE...THE TYPHOON WATCH FOR ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED...BUT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THOSE TWO ISLANDS. ONCE PHANFONE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...EXPECT
AN OVERALL SYNOPTIC FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH WINDS BECOMING
BREEZY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP WET CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND BECOME LIGHTER ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PHANFONE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...AND IS STILL EXPECTED
TO BECOME A TYPHOON LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST AND AWAY
FROM THE ISLAND CHAIN. AT THIS TIME...ONLY ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN REMAIN
UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...AND ARE NO LONGER UNDER A TYPHOON
WATCH. THE MONSOON TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN MARIANAS.

TONIGHT...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS PHANFONE
CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWEST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. BREEZY AND
CONVERGENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL UNTIL
FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
LIGHTER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...AND FEWER SHOWERS...ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
COMBINED SEAS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE IN THE SHORT
TERM...MAINLY FROM A NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM KAMMURI. EXPECT
INCREASING SHORT-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS
INCREASING TO NEAR 10 FEET IN GUAM WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY...AND TO
NEAR 14 FEET IN SAIPAN WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
SHORT-PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL OVER SAIPAN AND TINIAN WATERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY. MEANWHILE...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY
AND THURSDAY WILL DRIVE UP SHORT PERIOD WAVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE JUST EAST OF MAJURO THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEK...PASSING
WELL NORTH OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS EAST OF THE DISTURBANCE. FOR
MAJURO...UNSETTLED WEATHER APPEARS MOST LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY...
POTENTIALLY EXTENDING INTO SATURDAY. KOSRAE AND POHNPEI WILL REMAIN
SEPARATED FROM THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THE DISTURBANCE.


&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONSIDERABLE CONVERGENCE IN THE RELATIVELY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS KEEPING A BAND OF OVERCAST CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOUDY AND RATHER WET DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR KOROR AND YAP...AND LESS SO FOR CHUUK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR SAIPAN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN WATERS
THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

&&

$$

REYNES









000
FXPQ60 PGUM 301108 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
900 PM CHST TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN.

&&

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MONSOON TROUGH LOCATED OVER GUAM
AS TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE REMAINS ABOUT 115 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST
OF SAIPAN...OR ABOUT 240 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF GUAM. THE STORM
CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR
SAIPAN AND TINIAN ARE NO LONGER IN EFFECT. PHANFONE WILL BE CLOSEST
TO THE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT...PASSING ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF
SAIPAN. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON ON WEDNESDAY WHEN
IT SHOULD BE TRACKING SOUTH OF ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN...FOR WHICH A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT. ONCE
PHANFONE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...EXPECT AN OVERALL SYNOPTIC FLOW
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP WET CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND BECOME LIGHTER ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PHANFONE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...AND IS STILL EXPECTED
TO BECOME A TYPHOON BY TOMORROW AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST...PASSING
OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST
FORECAST FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM
TO INTENSIFY TO A TYPHOON JUST AFTER IT PASSES WEST OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN. SAIPAN AND TINIAN ARE NO LONGER UNDER A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING. HOWEVER...ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN REMAIN UNDER A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH. THE MONSOON TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN MARIANAS.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS
PHANFONE CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWEST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. BREEZY
AND CONVERGENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL UNTIL
FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
LIGHTER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...AND FEWER SHOWERS...ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
COMBINED SEAS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE IN THE SHORT
TERM...MAINLY FROM NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM KAMMURI. EXPECT
INCREASING SHORT-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELLS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH COMBINED SEAS INCREASING...TO NEAR 10 FEET IN GUAM
WATERS...AND TO NEAR 14 FEET IN SAIPAN WATERS...WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SAIPAN AND TINIAN WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
SHORT-PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELLS TODAY THAT DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DRIVING UP THE SHORT
PERIOD WAVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE JUST EAST OF MAJURO THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
SLOWLY BUT STEADILY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEK...
PASSING WELL NORTH OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS EAST OF THE
DISTURBANCE. FOR MAJURO...UNSETTLED WEATHER APPEARS MOST LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY EXTENDING INTO SATURDAY. KOSRAE AND POHNPEI
WILL REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THE DISTURBANCE.


&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONSIDERABLE CONVERGENCE IN THE RELATIVELY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS KEEPING A BAND OF OVERCAST CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOUDY AND RATHER WET DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR KOROR AND YAP...AND LESS SO FOR CHUUK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

TYPHOON WATCH FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS INCLUDING PAGAN
AND ALAMAGAN.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR SAIPAN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN WATERS
THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

&&

$$

REYNES








000
FXPQ60 PGUM 300642
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
430 PM CHST TUE SEP 30 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MONSOON TROUGH LOCATED OVER GUAM
AS TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE REMAINS ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SAIPAN...OR ABOUT 250 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM. THE STORM CONTINUES
TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
SAIPAN AND TINIAN. PHANFONE WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE ISLANDS LATER
TONIGHT...PASSING ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN. THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON ON WEDNESDAY WHEN IT SHOULD BE TRACKING
SOUTH OF ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN...FOR WHICH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AND A TYPHOON WATCH ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. ONCE PHANFONE MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA...EXPECT AN OVERALL SYNOPTIC FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
KEEP WET CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BECOME LIGHTER ALONG WITH
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PHANFONE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...AND IS STILL EXPECTED
TO BECOME A TYPHOON BY TOMORROW AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST...PASSING
OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST
FORECAST FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM
TO INTENSIFY TO A TYPHOON JUST AFTER IT PASSES WEST OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN. SAIPAN AND TINIAN ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...AS ARE
ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN...WHERE A TYPHOON WATCH IS ALSO IN PLACE. THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD BY
TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
MARIANAS.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS
PHANFONE CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWEST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. BREEZY
AND CONVERGENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL UNTIL
FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
LIGHTER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...AND FEWER SHOWERS...ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
COMBINED SEAS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE IN THE SHORT
TERM...MAINLY FROM NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM KAMMURI. EXPECT
INCREASING SHORT-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELLS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH COMBINED SEAS INCREASING...TO NEAR 10 FEET IN GUAM
WATERS...AND TO NEAR 14 FEET IN SAIPAN WATERS...WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SAIPAN AND TINIAN WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
SHORT-PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELLS TODAY THAT DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DRIVING UP THE SHORT
PERIOD WAVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE JUST EAST OF MAJURO THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
SLOWLY BUT STEADILY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEK...
PASSING WELL NORTH OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS EAST OF THE
DISTURBANCE. FOR MAJURO...UNSETTLED WEATHER APPEARS MOST LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY EXTENDING INTO SATURDAY. KOSRAE AND POHNPEI
WILL REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THE DISTURBANCE.


&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONSIDERABLE CONVERGENCE IN THE RELATIVELY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS KEEPING A BAND OF OVERCAST CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOUDY AND RATHER WET DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR KOROR AND YAP...AND LESS SO FOR CHUUK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TYPHOON WATCH FOR FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS INCLUDING PAGAN AND
ALAMAGAN.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND ADJACENT WATERS.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR SAIPAN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GUAM AND ROTA WATERS FROM 6 PM TONIGHT TO
6 PM THURSDAY.

&&

$$

REYNES









000
FXPQ60 PGUM 300307
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
105 PM CHST MON SEP 29 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
A MONSOON TROUGH LIES OVER GUAM...WITH TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE ABOUT
150 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN...OR ABOUT 250 MILES NORTHEAST OF
GUAM...TRACKING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SAIPAN AND TINIAN REMAIN
UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...WITH PHANFONE EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS
CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TONIGHT... PASSING ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH
OF SAIPAN. PHANFONE IS FORECAST TO REACH TYPHOON INTENSITY ON
WEDNESDAY AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN...WHERE A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT. AFTER
PHANFONE PASSES...BREEZY MONSOON SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVELY WET
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL UNTIL FRIDAY...WITH LIGHTER SOUTH WINDS AND
FEWER SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE HAS STRENGTHENED LITTLE TODAY...BUT IS
STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A TYPHOON BY TOMORROW AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWEST...PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO A TYPHOON JUST AFTER IT
PASSES WEST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. SAIPAN AND TINIAN ARE UNDER A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING...AS ARE ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN...WHERE A TYPHOON
WATCH IS ALSO IN PLACE. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE MONSOON TROUGH
WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD BY TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN MARIANAS.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS
PHANFONE CONTINUES TO TRACKS NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE AREA. BREEZY
AND CONVERGENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL UNTIL
FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHTER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...AND FEWER
SHOWERS...ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
COMBINED SEAS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE IN THE SHORT
TERM...MAINLY FROM NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM KAMMURI. EXPECT
INCREASING SHORT-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELLS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH COMBINED SEAS INCREASING...TO NEAR 10 FEET IN GUAM
WATERS...AND TO NEAR 14 FEET IN SAIPAN WATERS...WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SAIPAN AND TINIAN WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
SHORT-PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELLS TODAY THAT DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DRIVING UP THE SHORT
PERIOD WAVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE JUST EAST OF MAJURO THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
SLOWLY BUT STEADILY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEK...
PASSING WELL NORTH OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
CLOUDS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS EAST OF THE
DISTURBANCE. FOR MAJURO...UNSETTLED WEATHER APPEARS MOST LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY EXTENDING INTO SATURDAY. KOSRAE AND POHNPEI
WILL REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THE DISTURBANCE.


&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONSIDERABLE CONVERGENCE IN THE RELATIVELY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS KEEPING A BAND OF OVERCAST CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOUDY AND RATHER WET FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR KOROR AND YAP...AND LESS SO FOR CHUUK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TYPHOON WATCH FOR FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS INCLUDING PAGAN AND
ALAMAGAN.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND ADJACENT WATERS.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR SAIPAN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GUAM AND ROTA WATERS FROM 6 PM TONIGHT TO
6 PM THURSDAY.

&&

$$

BIRCHARD







000
FXPQ60 PGUM 292333
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
930 AM CHST MON SEP 29 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
THE MONSOON TROUGH LIES OVER GUAM...WITH STRENGTHENING TROPICAL
STORM PHANFONE ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF GUAM...TRACKING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. SAIPAN AND TINIAN REMAIN UNDER A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING...WITH PHANFONE EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST POINT OF
APPROACH TONIGHT...PASSING JUST NORTH OF SAIPAN. PHANFONE IS
EXPECTED TO REACH TYPHOON INTENSITY ON WEDNESDAY AS IT PASSES NEAR
ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN...WHERE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND TYPHOON
WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT. AFTER PHANFONE PASSES...BREEZY MONSOON
SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND RELATIVELY WET WEATHER...WILL PREVAIL UNTIL
FRIDAY...WITH LIGHTER SOUTH WINDS...AND FEWER SHOWERS...FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...AND
IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO A TYPHOON JUST AFTER IT PASSES
WEST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. SAIPAN AND TINIAN ARE UNDER A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING...AS ARE ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN...WHERE A TYPHOON WATCH IS
ALSO IN PLACE. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL SHIFT
NORTHWARD BY TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN MARIANAS.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS
PHANFONE CONTINUES TO TRACKS NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE AREA. BREEZY
AND CONVERGENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL UNTIL
FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHTER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...AND FEWER
SHOWERS...ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
COMBINED SEAS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE IN THE SHORT
TERM...MAINLY FROM NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM KAMMURI. EXPECT
INCREASING SHORT-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELLS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH COMBINED SEAS INCREASING TO NEAR 10 FEET FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SAIPAN AND TINIAN WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHORT-PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELLS TODAY THAT DIMINISH
TONIGHT...WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
DRIVING UP THE SHORT PERIOD WAVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE JUST EAST OF MAJURO THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
SLOWLY BUT STEADILY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEK...
PASSING WELL NORTH OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
CLOUDS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS EAST OF THE
DISTURBANCE. FOR MAJURO...UNSETTLED WEATHER APPEARS MOST LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY EXTENDING INTO SATURDAY. KOSRAE AND POHNPEI
WILL REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THE DISTURBANCE.


&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONSIDERABLE CONVERGENCE IN THE RELATIVELY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS KEEPING A BAND OF OVERCAST CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOUDY AND RATHER WET FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR KOROR AND YAP...AND LESS SO FOR CHUUK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TYPHOON WATCH FOR FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS INCLUDING PAGAN AND
ALAMAGAN.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND ADJACENT WATERS.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR SAIPAN.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GUAM AND ROTA WATERS FROM 6 PM TONIGHT TO
6 PM THURSDAY.

&&

$$

BIRCHARD







000
FXPQ60 PGUM 292031
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
630 AM CHST MON SEP 29 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
THE MONSOON TROUGH LIES OVER GUAM...WITH STRENGTHENING TROPICAL
STORM PHANFONE ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF GUAM...TRACKING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. SAIPAN AND TINIAN REMAIN UNDER A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING...WITH PHANFONE EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST POINT OF
APPROACH TONIGHT...PASSING JUST NORTH OF SAIPAN. PHANFONE IS
EXPECTED TO REACH TYPHOON INTENSITY ON WEDNESDAY AS IT PASSES NEAR
ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN...WHERE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND TYPHOON
WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT. AFTER PHANFONE PASSES...BREEZY MONSOON
SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND RELATIVELY WET WEATHER...WILL PREVAIL UNTIL
FRIDAY...WITH LIGHTER SOUTH WINDS...AND FEWER SHOWERS...FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...AND
IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO A TYPHOON JUST AFTER IT PASSES
WEST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. SAIPAN AND TINIAN ARE UNDER A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING...AS ARE ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN...WHERE A TYPHOON WATCH IS
ALSO IN PLACE. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL SHIFT
NORTHWARD BY TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN MARIANAS DEVELOPING.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS
PHANFONE CONTINUES TO TRACKS NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE AREA. BREEZY
AND CONVERGENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL UNTIL
FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHTER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...AND FEWER
SHOWERS...ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
COMBINED SEAS WILL BE IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE IN THE SHORT
TERM...MAINLY FROM NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM KAMMURI. EXPECT
INCREASING SHORT-PERIOD SW SWELL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE SAIPAN
AND TINIAN WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN SHORT PERIOD SWELL
FROM STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE BY TODAY...PEAKING
TONIGHT...AND DIMINISHING SLOWLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE JUST EAST OF MAJURO THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
SLOWLY BUT STEADILY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEK...
PASSING WELL NORTH OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
CLOUDS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS EAST OF THE
DISTURBANCE. FOR MAJURO...UNSETTLED WEATHER APPEARS MOST LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY EXTENDING INTO SATURDAY. KOSRAE AND POHNPEI
WILL REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THE DISTURBANCE.


&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONSIDERABLE CONVERGENCE IN THE RELATIVELY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS KEEPING A BAND OF OVERCAST CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOUDY AND RATHER WET FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR KOROR AND YAP...AND LESS SO FOR CHUUK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TYPHOON WATCH FOR FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS INCLUDING PAGAN AND
ALAMAGAN.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND ADJACENT WATERS.

&&

$$

BIRCHARD







000
FXPQ60 PGUM 291110 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
910 PM CHST MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
RECENTLY-NAMED TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE (18W) HAS TAKEN A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK THAN ANTICIPATED EARLIER...PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR TINIAN...SAIPAN...PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

&&

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
THE MONSOON TROUGH LIES JUST SOUTH OF GUAM AS AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS REGENERATED ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO TROPICAL STORM
PHANFONE...WHICH WILL BE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS IN THE SHORT TERM. SAIPAN AND TINIAN ARE
NOW UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING SINCE THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN. ALL INTERESTS IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHANFONE...SINCE CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST COULD LEAD TO VARYING IMPACTS ON THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RECENTLY DEVELOPED AND STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE WILL BE
ADVANCING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS IN THE SHORT TERM AND
WILL PASS OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO
INTENSIFY TO TYPHOON STRENGTH AS...OR JUST AFTER...IT CROSSES OVER
THE ISLAND CHAIN. BASED ON THE CURRENT GUIDANCE...GUAM AND ROTA
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM...BUT SAIPAN
AND TINIAN ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO REQUIRE THAT
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING BE ISSUED THERE. ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION IN
THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY WOULD LEAD TO CHANGES IN
IMPACTS...SO ALL THOSE IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE SYSTEM. FOR THOSE IN THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS...PREPARATIONS FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE UNDERTAKEN.

ONCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE PASSES...THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN WILL
REMAIN UNDER A MOIST...CONVERGENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
COMBINED SEAS WILL BE IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE IN THE SHORT
TERM...MAINLY FROM NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM KAMMURI. EXPECT
INCREASING MONSOONAL SWELL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE SAIPAN
AND TINIAN WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN SHORT PERIOD SWELL
FROM STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA
TO THE NORTH. WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONSIDERABLE CONVERGENCE IN THE WESTERLY WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH IS KEEPING A BAND OF OVERCAST CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CLOUDY AND RATHER WET FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
MONSOON TROUGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF NEARBY. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW W OR
SW WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE CIRCULATION INTO PHANFONE BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TYPHOON WATCH FOR FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS INCLUDING PAGAN AND
ALAMAGAN.

GU...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GU-003-004.

MARIANAS WATERS...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PMZ153-154.

&&

$$

POWELL











000
FXPQ60 PGUM 290625
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
430 PM CHST MON SEP 29 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
THE MONSOON TROUGH LIES JUST SOUTH OF GUAM AS AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS REGENERATED ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO TROPICAL STORM
18W...WHICH WILL BE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS IN THE SHORT TERM. SAIPAN AND TINIAN REMAIN UNDER A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH SINCE THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A TYPHOON WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS INCLUDING
PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN. ALL INTERESTS IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF 18W...SINCE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST COULD
LEAD TO VARYING IMPACTS ON THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RECENTLY DEVELOPED AND STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM 18W WILL BE
ADVANCING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS IN THE SHORT TERM AND
WILL PASS OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO
INTENSIFY TO TYPHOON STRENGTH AS IT CROSSES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN.
BASED ON THE CURRENT GUIDANCE...GUAM AND ROTA SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM...BUT SAIPAN AND TINIAN ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO REQUIRE THAT A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH BE ISSUED THERE. ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION IN THE FORECAST TRACK
AND INTENSITY WOULD LEAD TO CHANGES IN IMPACTS...SO ALL THOSE IN THE
MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE SYSTEM. FOR THOSE IN THE
FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...PREPARATIONS FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD BE UNDERTAKEN.

ONCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE PASSES...THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN WILL
REMAIN UNDER A MOIST...CONVERGENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
COMBINED SEAS WILL BE IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE IN THE SHORT
TERM...MAINLY FROM NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM KAMMURI. EXPECT
INCREASING MONSOONAL SWELL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE SAIPAN
AND TINIAN WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN SHORT PERIOD SWELL
FROM STRENGTHENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W BY TUESDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TROPICAL STORM 18W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA
TO THE NORTH. WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONSIDERABLE CONVERGENCE IN THE WESTERLY WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH IS KEEPING A BAND OF OVERCAST CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CLOUDY AND RATHER WET FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
MONSOON TROUGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF NEARBY. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW W OR
SW WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE CIRCULATION INTO 18W BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TYPHOON WATCH FOR FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS INCLUDING PAGAN AND
ALAMAGAN.

GU...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GU-004.

MARIANAS WATERS...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PMZ153-154.

&&

$$

POWELL










000
FXPQ60 PGUM 290346 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
146 PM CHST MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH TROPICAL STORM 18W DEVELOPING 450 MILES EAST OF GUAM...THE
FORECAST GRIDS WERE UPDATED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR VARIATIONS IN
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST. SAIPAN AND TINIAN REMAIN UNDER A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH SINCE THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A TYPHOON WATCH
HAS ALSO BE ISSUED FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS INCLUDING
PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN. ALL INTERESTS IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF 18W...SINCE CHANGES IN FORECAST COULD LEAD
TO VARYING IMPACTS ON THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
THE MONSOON TROUGH SHIFTED JUST SOUTH OF GUAM AS AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS PASSED OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO TROPICAL STORM 18W...WHICH WILL BE
STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS IN THE
SHORT TERM. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SAIPAN AND
TINIAN AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEARBY TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF 18W SINCE ONLY SMALL DEVIATIONS IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECAST WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS IN IMPACTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RECENTLY DEVELOPED AND STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM 18W WILL BE
ADVANCING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS IN THE SHORT TERM
AND WILL PASS OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM
TO BE A STRONG AND INTENSIFYING TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES OVER
THE ISLANDS. BASED ON THE CURRENT GUIDANCE...GUAM AND ROTA SHOULD
REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM...BUT SAIPAN AND
TINIAN ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO REQUIRE THAT A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH BE ISSUED THERE. ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION IN
THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY WOULD LEAD TO CHANGES IN
IMPACTS...SO ALL THOSE IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE SYSTEM. FOR THOSE IN THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS...PREPARATIONS FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE UNDERTAKEN.

ONCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE PASSES...THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN WILL
REMAIN UNDER A MOIST...CONVERGENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
COMBINED SEAS WILL BE IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE IN THE SHORT
TERM...MAINLY FROM NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM KAMMURI. EXPECT
INCREASING MONSOONAL SWELL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE SAIPAN
AND TINIAN WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN SHORT PERIOD SWELL
FROM STRENGTHENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W BY TUESDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TROPICAL STORM 18W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA
TO THE NORTH. WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONSIDERABLE CONVERGENCE IN THE WESTERLY WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH IS KEEPING A BAND OF OVERCAST CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CLOUDY AND RATHER WET FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
MONSOON TROUGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF NEARBY. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW W OR
SW WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE CIRCULATION INTO 18W BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TYPHOON WATCH FOR FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS INCLUDING PAGAN AND
ALAMAGAN.

GU...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GUZ003-004.

MARIANAS WATERS...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PMZ153-154.

&&

$$

WROE








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