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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 272226 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
826 AM CHST MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY ISSUED FOR SOUTH AND WEST FACING SHORES. BOTH
SAIPAN AND RITIDIAN BUOYS INDICATE WAVES OF 7 TO 8 FEET AND SOME
NEAR 9 FEET ARE PERSISTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CHST MON JUL 28 2014/

MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
RADAR SHOWS PATCHY RAIN AND SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF
GUAM AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. SATELLITE IR SHOWS ONLY
PATCHY CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION...MAINLY NEAR
SAIPAN. MUCH HEAVIER CONVECTION THATS ASSOCIATED WITH JTWC INVEST
AREA 90W IS EDGING OUR WAY ACROSS 150E BETWEEN 10N AND 15N. THE
RITIDIAN BUOY HAS BEEN SHOWING COMBINED SEAS AROUND 8 FT MAINLY
FROM SW...AND TANAPAG SHOWS SEAS NEAR 7 FT.

DISCUSSION...
WE CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS
THE MARIANA FORECAST ZONES AND ESPECIALLY INVEST 90W...WHICH IS
CENTERED NEAR 13N151E. INVEST 90W IS STILL DEVELOPING SLOWLY AND
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE SIMILAR
IDEAS ABOUT 90W MOVING ROUGHLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BUT DIFFER IN
ITS EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO
GFS SOLUTION AND 90W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE MARIANA ISLANDS IN THE LATE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM WATERS. MARINE GRIDS
ARE PROBLEMATIC BECAUSE DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS COULD RESULT IN
GREAT DIFFERENCES FOR WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS WEEK. IF 90W DEVELOPS MUCH AT ALL...THEN SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH
SURF ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED BY WEDNESDAY...AND SOME SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO WAVES GRIDS FOR THAT LIKELIHOOD.

EASTERN MICRONESIA...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INHERITED FORECAST WERE MADE AS THE
GENERAL WEATHER SETUP REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE DISTURBANCE NORTH OF
CHUUK REMAINS RATHER DISORGANIZED AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWEST.
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE DISTURBANCE
WILL PULL NORTHWEST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS ALLOWING DRIER WEATHER TO
CONTINUE FILTERING IN ACROSS THIS REGION. SATELLITE SHOWS SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS NORTH OF
MAJURO ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. LIGHT EASTERLY TRADES ARE
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. ANOTHER TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK COULD
BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE MARSHALLS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. WAVE
MODELS SHOW A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FEET AT KOSRAE THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HAZARDOUS SURF IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SWELL.
MEANWHILE AT POHNPEI...HAZARDOUS SURF ON WEST-FACING SHORES WILL
SUBSIDE A LITTLE TODAY WITH SURF FALLING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE DISTURBANCE NORTH OF KOROR HAS MADE LITTLE NORTHWARD PROGRESS
OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. SHOWERS TAPERED OFF AT YAP AND KOROR SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT IR SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SLOWLY FILLING
IN AGAIN THIS MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE TO
SCATTERED AT BOTH LOCATIONS. MODELS STILL SHOW THE DISTURBANCE AND
MONSOON TROUGH LIFTING NORTH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH DRIER WEATHER
BUILDING IN BY WEDNESDAY. FRESH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE
BY WEDNESDAY.

FOR CHUUK...FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE AREA AS THE
CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH MOVES TOWARD THE MARIANAS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST TODAY AND THEN SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. SHOWER
COVERAGE HAS BEEN SCALED BACK BASED ON SATELLITE ANIMATION AND
MODEL GUIDANCE. A DRIER PATTERN IN THE EAST WILL SPREAD ACROSS
CHUUK BY WEDNESDAY.

STRONGER WINDS WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
BOATS FOR THE REGION. SIMILARLY...HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE STILL
IN EFFECT FOR ALL 3 LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST THURSDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CHST THIS MORNING FOR PMZ151.

&&

$$

SIMPSON/M. AYDLETT







000
FXPQ60 PGUM 271934
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
534 AM CHST MON JUL 28 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
RADAR SHOWS PATCHY RAIN AND SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF
GUAM AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. SATELLITE IR SHOWS ONLY
PATCHY CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION...MAINLY NEAR
SAIPAN. MUCH HEAVIER CONVECTION THATS ASSOCIATED WITH JTWC INVEST
AREA 90W IS EDGING OUR WAY ACROSS 150E BETWEEN 10N AND 15N. THE
RITIDIAN BUOY HAS BEEN SHOWING COMBINED SEAS AROUND 8 FT MAINLY
FROM SW...AND TANAPAG SHOWS SEAS NEAR 7 FT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS
THE MARIANA FORECAST ZONES AND ESPECIALLY INVEST 90W...WHICH IS
CENTERED NEAR 13N151E. INVEST 90W IS STILL DEVELOPING SLOWLY AND
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE SIMILAR
IDEAS ABOUT 90W MOVING ROUGHLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BUT DIFFER IN
ITS EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO
GFS SOLUTION AND 90W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE MARIANA ISLANDS IN THE LATE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM WATERS. MARINE GRIDS
ARE PROBLEMATIC BECAUSE DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS COULD RESULT IN
GREAT DIFFERENCES FOR WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS WEEK. IF 90W DEVELOPS MUCH AT ALL...THEN SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH
SURF ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED BY WEDNESDAY...AND SOME SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO WAVES GRIDS FOR THAT LIKELIHOOD.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INHERITED FORECAST WERE MADE AS THE
GENERAL WEATHER SETUP REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE DISTURBANCE NORTH OF
CHUUK REMAINS RATHER DISORGANIZED AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWEST.
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE DISTURBANCE
WILL PULL NORTHWEST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS ALLOWING DRIER WEATHER TO
CONTINUE FILTERING IN ACROSS THIS REGION. SATELLITE SHOWS SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS NORTH OF
MAJURO ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. LIGHT EASTERLY TRADES ARE
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. ANOTHER TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK COULD
BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE MARSHALLS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. WAVE
MODELS SHOW A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FEET AT KOSRAE THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HAZARDOUS SURF IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SWELL.
MEANWHILE AT POHNPEI...HAZARDOUS SURF ON WEST-FACING SHORES WILL
SUBSIDE A LITTLE TODAY WITH SURF FALLING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE DISTURBANCE NORTH OF KOROR HAS MADE LITTLE NORTHWARD PROGRESS
OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. SHOWERS TAPERED OFF AT YAP AND KOROR SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT IR SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SLOWLY FILLING
IN AGAIN THIS MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE TO
SCATTERED AT BOTH LOCATIONS. MODELS STILL SHOW THE DISTURBANCE AND
MONSOON TROUGH LIFTING NORTH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH DRIER WEATHER
BUILDING IN BY WEDNESDAY. FRESH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE
BY WEDNESDAY.

FOR CHUUK...FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE AREA AS THE
CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH MOVES TOWARD THE MARIANAS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST TODAY AND THEN SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. SHOWER
COVERAGE HAS BEEN SCALED BACK BASED ON SATELLITE ANIMATION AND
MODEL GUIDANCE. A DRIER PATTERN IN THE EAST WILL SPREAD ACROSS
CHUUK BY WEDNESDAY.

STRONGER WINDS WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
BOATS FOR THE REGION. SIMILARLY...HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE STILL
IN EFFECT FOR ALL 3 LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CHST THIS
     MORNING FOR PMZ151.

&&

$$

SIMPSON/ M. AYDLETT






000
FXPQ60 PGUM 271820
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
420 AM CHST MON JUL 28 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
RADAR SHOWS PATCHY RAIN AND SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF
GUAM AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. SATELLITE IR SHOWS ONLY
PATCHY CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION...MAINLY NEAR
SAIPAN. MUCH HEAVIER CONVECTION THATS ASSOCIATED WITH JTWC INVEST
AREA 90W IS EDGING OUR WAY ACROSS 150E BETWEEN 10N AND 15N. THE
RITIDIAN BUOY HAS BEEN SHOWING COMBINED SEAS AROUND 8 FT MAINLY
FROM SW...AND TANAPAG SHOWS SEAS NEAR 7 FT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS
THE MARIANA FORECAST ZONES AND ESPECIALLY INVEST 90W...WHICH IS
CENTERED NEAR 13N151E. INVEST 90W IS STILL DEVELOPING SLOWLY AND
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE SIMILAR
IDEAS ABOUT 90W MOVING ROUGHLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BUT DIFFER IN
ITS EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO
GFS SOLUTION AND 90W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE MARIANA ISLANDS IN THE LATE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM WATERS. MARINE GRIDS
ARE PROBLEMATIC BECAUSE DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS COULD RESULT IN
GREAT DIFFERENCES FOR WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS WEEK. IF 90W DEVELOPS MUCH AT ALL...THEN SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH
SURF ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED BY WEDNESDAY...AND SOME SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO WAVES GRIDS FOR THAT LIKELIHOOD.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...WILL BE SENT LATER.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...WILL BE SENT LATER.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CHST THIS
     MORNING FOR PMZ151.

&&

$$

SIMPSON






000
FXPQ60 PGUM 271113
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
913 PM CHST SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...ISSUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISROY FOR GUAM COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR DATA INDICATE FREQUENT MONSOON SQUALLS PASSING ACROSS GUAM
COASTAL WATERS. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUST TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS WITH
GUST AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. THESE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CHST SUN JUL 27 2014/

MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER GUAM AND ROTA WATERS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN TINIAN AND SAIPAN WATERS. THESE ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY SLIPPING A
BIT SOUTHWARD. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS 17 TO 27 KNOT WEST
WINDS THROUGH THE LOWEST 20 THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR.

DISCUSSION...
MONSOON TROUGH WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS CURRENTLY CAUSING CLOUDY SKIES AND ONGOING
LIGHT RAIN. CONVECTION OVER GUAM HAS STRATIFIED FOR NOW...BUT AT
SOME POINT WILL BLOW UP AGAIN AS THE AIR RECOVERS FROM THE
PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE OUTBURST. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE PARTICULARLY GRAND...BUT HIGH PROBABILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED.
GFS MOS PUT OUT A 74...SO WENT WITH 90 FOR THE PACKAGE WITH
OCCASIONAL WORDING. STUCK WITH SCATTERED AND 50 FOR TINIAN AND
SAIPAN ZONES. THE BIG WRINKLE IS A CIRCULATION NEAR POHNPEI THAT
IS FAIRLY WEAK RIGHT NOW. MOST MODELS BRING IT THROUGH THE
MARIANAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW
STRONG. AFTER IT PASSES THE MONSOON TROUGH SHOULD BE DRAGGED
NORTH AND A PERIOD OF LESS ACTIVE WEATHER WILL ENSUE.

MARINE...
CANCELED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...AND
SWELLS WERE LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. IN FACT...THE REDUCED
SWELL ENDED UP NOT MEETING THE CRITERIA FOR A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
THAT HAD PREVIOUSLY LOOKED FAIRLY LIKELY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL
STILL BE JUST BELOW AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION NEAR 11N154E AND THEN ENDS EAST OF KOSRAE NEAR
6N158E. THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP AS IT HEADS
NORTHWESTWARD IN THE COMING DAYS. AS IT MOVES AWAY...THE MONSOON
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND ALLOW A DRYING TREND TO SPREAD
WESTWARD FROM THE MARSHALLS TO KOSRAE ON MONDAY AND THEN POHNPEI
ON TUESDAY. ASCAT DATA SHOWS A NARROW SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KT
NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN CHUUK AND THE CIRCULATION THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE SWELL AND MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS SURF
ALONG WEST FACING REEFS OF POHNPEI THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING TO BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS AROUND MIDWEEK.

WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD SOME TODAY AND LESSENED
SOME OF THE WIND AND RAIN ACROSS YAP AND PALAU. THE
CIRCULATION...INVEST 96W...IS NOW CENTERED NEAR 16N135E. MODELS
SHOW FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSISTING IN THE WEST
THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN WIND SPEEDS DECREASE LATER IN THE WEEK. WITH
THE CIRCULATION SLOWLY PULLING NORTHWARD...PRECIP WILL ALSO
DECREASE IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS.

FOR CHUUK...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE
AREA AS THE CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHEAST HEADS TOWARD THE
MARIANAS. WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND MIDWEEK.

STRONGER WINDS WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
BOATS THROUGH THE REGION. SIMILARLY...HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE
STILL IN EFFECT FOR ALL 3 LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CHST MONDAY FOR PMZ151.

&&

$$

ZIOBRO/STANKO/W. AYDLETT







000
FXPQ60 PGUM 270732
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
532 PM CHST SUN JUL 27 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER GUAM AND ROTA WATERS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN TINIAN AND SAIPAN WATERS. THESE ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY SLIPPING A
BIT SOUTHWARD. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS 17 TO 27 KNOT WEST
WINDS THROUGH THE LOWEST 20 THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MONSOON TROUGH WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS CURRENTLY CAUSING CLOUDY SKIES AND ONGOING
LIGHT RAIN. CONVECTION OVER GUAM HAS STRATIFIED FOR NOW...BUT AT
SOME POINT WILL BLOW UP AGAIN AS THE AIR RECOVERS FROM THE
PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE OUTBURST. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE PARTICULARLY GRAND...BUT HIGH PROBABILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED.
GFS MOS PUT OUT A 74...SO WENT WITH 90 FOR THE PACKAGE WITH
OCCASIONAL WORDING. STUCK WITH SCATTERED AND 50 FOR TINIAN AND
SAIPAN ZONES. THE BIG WRINKLE IS A CIRCULATION NEAR POHNPEI THAT
IS FAIRLY WEAK RIGHT NOW. MOST MODELS BRING IT THROUGH THE
MARIANAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW
STRONG. AFTER IT PASSES THE MONSOON TROUGH SHOULD BE DRAGGED
NORTH AND A PERIOD OF LESS ACTIVE WEATHER WILL ENSUE.

&&

.MARINE...
CANCELED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...AND
SWELLS WERE LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. IN FACT...THE REDUCED
SWELL ENDED UP NOT MEETING THE CRITERIA FOR A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
THAT HAD PREVIOUSLY LOOKED FAIRLY LIKELY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL
STILL BE JUST BELOW AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION NEAR 11N154E AND THEN ENDS EAST OF KOSRAE NEAR
6N158E. THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP AS IT HEADS
NORTHWESTWARD IN THE COMING DAYS. AS IT MOVES AWAY...THE MONSOON
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND ALLOW A DRYING TREND TO SPREAD
WESTWARD FROM THE MARSHALLS TO KOSRAE ON MONDAY AND THEN POHNPEI
ON TUESDAY. ASCAT DATA SHOWS A NARROW SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KT
NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN CHUUK AND THE CIRCULATION THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE SWELL AND MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS SURF
ALONG WEST FACING REEFS OF POHNPEI THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING TO BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS AROUND MIDWEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD SOME TODAY AND LESSENED
SOME OF THE WIND AND RAIN ACROSS YAP AND PALAU. THE
CIRCULATION...INVEST 96W...IS NOW CENTERED NEAR 16N135E. MODELS
SHOW FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSISTING IN THE WEST
THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN WIND SPEEDS DECREASE LATER IN THE WEEK. WITH
THE CIRCULATION SLOWLY PULLING NORTHWARD...PRECIP WILL ALSO
DECREASE IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS.

FOR CHUUK...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE
AREA AS THE CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHEAST HEADS TOWARD THE
MARIANAS. WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND MIDWEEK.

STRONGER WINDS WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
BOATS THROUGH THE REGION. SIMILARLY...HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE
STILL IN EFFECT FOR ALL 3 LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/W. AYDLETT









000
FXPQ60 PGUM 262000
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
600 AM CHST SUN JUL 27 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX MONSOON PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE MARIANAS. THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS HAS MOVED JUST TO THE NORTH OF SAIPAN WATERS. A STRONG
GRADIENT OF WIND SPEEDS AND COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS ARE FOUND OVER
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS OVER SOUTHWEST GUAM
WATERS. EVIDENCE OF SOUTHWEST SWELL BEGINNING TO ARRIVE IS
OBSERVED IN BUOY DATA BUT SIGNIFICANT RISES IN COMBINED SEAS HAS
YET TO BE OBSERVED DIRECTLY. IN ADDITION TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W WAS CENTERED NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
POHNPEI NEAR 9N157E.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UNSETTLED MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY
BEFORE RETURNING LATER TONIGHT. FOLLOWED THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
PATTERN MUSH LIKE YESTERDAY. PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MIDWEEK IN ADVANCE OF 90W.
MODELS INDICATE 90W WILL MOVE A BIT SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED SO
ADJUSTED WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE. MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM MARINE GRIDS. THE FORECAST
FOR MIDWEEK STILL HEDGES ON INTENSITY AND THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF
90W EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM WATERS. DECIDED
AGAINST EXTENDING ADVISORY INTO ROTA WATERS AS RITIDIAN BUOY
SHOWS ALMOST NO INDICATION OF SIGNIFICANT SEA HEIGHT INCREASES
WITH CURRENT COMBINED SEAS OF AROUND 6 FT. THE RITIDIAN BUOY DOES
SHOW THE PRIMARY SWELL DIRECTION IS NOW FROM SOUTHWEST BUT WAVE
PERIOD REMAINS IN THE WIND WAVE CATEGORY. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BEING MET ACROSS
CNMI WATERS BY THIS EVENING SO THE ADVISORY SHOULD BE EXTENDED TO
INCLUDE THESE ZONES LATER. HAZARDOUS SURF WILL ALSO DEVELOP FROM
GUAM NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CNMI TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT
SURF TO RISE TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS TODAY ON GUAM...TONIGHT ON ROTA
AND MONDAY ON TINIAN AND SAIPAN. THESE ADVISORIES MAY HAVE TO BE
EXTENDED DEPENDING ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF 90W.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W IN POHNPEI STATE STILL LOOKS RATHER
DISORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH LITTLE SUSTAINED
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. IN
ADDITION...THE TUTT TO THE NORTH OF POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES IS
STILL PROVIDING AMPLE SHEAR OVER 90W. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THIS DISTURBANCE NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE MARIANAS OVER THE COMING DAYS LIKELY PASSING OVER THE
MARIANAS SOMETIME MIDWEEK. NAVGEM IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE MODEL IN
INTENSIFICATION WHILE THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS MODEL SHOW
THE DISTURBANCE INTENSIFYING INTO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM BY
MIDWEEK BEFORE REACHING THE MARIANAS. ECMWF SHOWS A SIMILAR TRACK
AND BRINGS THE SYSTEM OVER THE MARIANAS AS A WEAK DEPRESSION. DUE
TO THE LACK OF REAL DEVELOPMENT OF 90W...DECIDED TO INCORPORATE
MINIMAL EFFECTS INTO THE MARIANAS FORECAST FOR NOW. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW REGARDING ITS INTENSITY AS IT CROSSES THE
MARIANAS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. NONETHELESS...A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT DEPENDING ON THE
SHORT TERM EVOLUTION OF 90W.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS
EASTERN MICRONESIA TO BEYOND THE DATE LINE. INVEST AREA 90W IS A
WEAK CIRCULATION NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI NEAR 9.5N157E AND ANOTHER
POSSIBLE CIRCULATION IS WELL NORTHEAST OF MAJURO NEAR 10.5N176E.
MODELS INDICATE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS 90W CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE TOWARD THE MARIANAS IN THE COMING DAYS. THE WEATHER AND WIND
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA WILL BE CHANGEABLE THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IMPROVING WEATHER SHOULD RE-DEVELOP
DURING THE COMING WORK WEEK.

THE HAZARDOUS SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR POHNPEI AND THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR MICRONESIA REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
MONSOON FLOW DOMINATES WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN MICRONESIA AND
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. ASCAT ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 96W IS
NEAR 13N133E AND EDGING TOWARD NORTH-NORTHWEST. INVEST 90W IS
CENTERED NORTHEAST OF CHUUK AT 9.5N157E AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS IT SLOWLY DEVELOPS IN THE COMING DAYS.
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS KOROR AND
YAP FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS COMING
WEEK.

AT CHUUK...WET MONSOON-TYPE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AND CONDITIONS
WILL BE VERY CHANGEABLE...DEPENDING ON JUST HOW THE ACTIVE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH 90W DEVELOPS AND MOVES IN THE COMING
DAYS.

HAZARDOUS SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR...YAP...AND
CHUUK. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR MICRONESIA REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST TUESDAY FOR PMZ151.

&&

$$

WILLIAMS/SIMPSON







000
FXPQ60 PGUM 260737
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
537 PM CHST SAT JUL 26 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
THE MONSOON TROUGH MIGRATED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST ZONES
TODAY AND HAS PASSED TO THE NORTH OF SAIPAN. BEST LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS WAS NEAR GUAM THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE FORECAST ZONES FOR NOW...BUT A
REINFORCING SURGE OF MONSOON WINDS CAN BE SEEN APPROACHING THE
GUAM MARINE ZONE FROM YAP. JTWC LOW INVEST AREA 90W IS CENTERED
JUST NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN REDEVELOPING
NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOR SHOWER COVERAGE CLOSELY FOLLOWS PERSISTENCE. STILL
EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE/QPF TO FAVOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE PERSISTENT
BAND OF MONSOONAL CONVECTION WILL SET UP OVER THE FORECAST ZONES.
THE BAND OF CONVECTION IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO FEED INTO 90W
AS IT APPROACHES THE MARIANAS. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN BRINGING
90W THROUGH THE FORECAST ZONES AROUND MID WEEK. FELT ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WAS TOO FAST...SO FAVORED THE GFS
SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS 90W THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPDATED
WIND FIELDS FOR DAYS 1 THROUGH 7 TO FACTOR IN STRONG MONSOONAL
WINDS OVER THE GUAM WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS WELL AS THE
WIND FIELD FROM 90W AS IT PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. IF CONFIDENCE IMPROVES ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE
PASSAGE OF 90W...LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS DURING
THE TIME 90W WILL PASS THROUGH THE MARIANAS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST ASCAT IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED
TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS OVER GUAM WATERS. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THESE WINDS WILL NOT MAKE INROADS MUCH FARTHER TOWARD
THE NORTH...BUT LARGE SWELL WILL BEGIN ARRIVING FROM THE FETCH
GENERATION REGION IN YAP STATE ON SUNDAY. ISSUED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR GUAM WATERS TONIGHT BASED ON WINDS/WIND WAVES...BUT
EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL MARINE ZONES BY SUNDAY NIGHT
AS COMBINED SEAS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES EVENTUALLY BUILD TO
ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH SURF SHOULD AFFECT SOUTH AND WEST FACING
REEFS BY SUNDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BUT IF 90W INTENSIFIES...THE
ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
ASCAT ANALYSIS INDICATES TWO CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF EASTERN
MICRONESIA TO BEYOND THE DATE LINE. ONE CIRCULATION...INVEST AREA
90W...IS NEAR 9.5N158E AND A WEAKER CIRCULATION IS NEAR 10.5N169E.
MODELS INDICATE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL MOVE NORTHWEST
OF THESE FORECAST POINTS AS INVEST 90W CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND
LIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN THE COMING DAYS. MEANWHILE...WEATHER
AND WIND CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS AREA WILL BE CHANGEABLE AND
UNSTABLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT GRADUALLY IMPROVING
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR EASTERN MICRONESIA DURING THE COMING WORK
WEEK AS A TRADE-WIND PATTERN RETURNS.

THE HAZARDOUS SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR POHNPEI AND THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR MICRONESIA WAS RE-ISSUED.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
ASCAT ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
INVEST 96W IS NEAR 10.5N134E AND EDGING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS KOROR AND
YAP THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS COMING
WEEK. INVEST 96W WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY BECAUSE IT WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE WEATHER...WINDS AND SEA CONDITIONS FOR
YAP AND KOROR.

NEWLY DEVELOPED INVEST AREA 90W IS CENTERED NORTHEAST OF CHUUK AT
9N158E. MOST MODELS ARE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING 90W AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MONSOON-TYPE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ON CHUUK AND CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY CHANGEABLE THERE...
DEPENDING ON HOW ACTIVE THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH 90W BECOMES IN
THE COMING DAYS.

HAZARDOUS SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR...YAP...AND
CHUUK. CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE EVEN MORE IF INVEST 96W QUICKLY
BECOMES MORE INTENSE. THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR MICRONESIA
WAS RE-ISSUED.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST TUESDAY FOR
PMZ151.

&&

$$

MCELROY/SIMPSON







000
FXPQ60 PGUM 252343 CCA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...TYPO CORRECTION LAST PARAGRAPH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
837 AM CHST SAT JUL 26 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...THE MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE
MARIANAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS WILL BE A WET WEEKEND FOR THE MARIANAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST MADE EXCEPT FOR EXTENDING THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND NOON TODAY. ALL MODELS SEEM TO INITIALIZE
WELL IN TERMS OF POSITIONING THE CIRCULATION NEAR PALAU AND THE
MONSOON TROUGH LOCATION. FEEL CONFIDENT IN THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

AN INTERESTING SOLUTION IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH ALL THE
MODELS. EVEN OBSCURE MODELS FROM KOREA...TAIWAN AND AUSTRALIA LET
ALONE THE USUAL GFS...ECMWF AND NAVGEM. THERE IS A CIRCULATION
NORTH OF KOSRAE THIS MORNING. THESE MODELS DO SEE IT AND TO A
VARYING DEGREE DEVELOP IT AND MOVE IT TOWARDS THE MARIANAS. WITH
THIS AGREEMENT IT IS GETTING MORE LIKELY THAT SOMETHING WILL MOVE
OUR WAY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHAT WILL IT LOOK LIKE WHEN IT GETS
HERE. GFS GOES BONKERS WITH IT MAKING IT A TYPHOON OVER THE
NORTHERN MARIANAS. THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT DO THIS MAKING IT A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT BEST. NAVGEM HAS AN INTERESTING SOLUTION
IN THAT THE BIG CIRCULATION NEAR PALAU WILL ONLY HAVE A FEW DAYS
OF GLORY. BY TUESDAY THE MONSOON STARTS FLOWING INTO THE KOSRAE
CIRCULATION LEAVING THE OTHER ONE WEAK. NAVGEM ONLY MAKES IT
STRONGER AFTER IT PASSES WEST OF THE MARIANAS.

NOT CERTAIN ABOUT THE PARTICULARS SO FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH BUT THINGS COULD DRASTICALLY CHANGE IF THE KOSRAE
CIRCULATION PICKS UP STEAM. EVEN IF THE KOSRAE CIRCULATION DOES
NOT BECOME STRONG IN TERMS OF WIND IT WILL PROBABLY PUSH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IF THINGS DO NOT CHANGE IN THE
MODELS...SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD BE EXTENDED THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWEST AND AN EAST SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST.
THE EAST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE A FOOT BY TONIGHT. THE
WEST SWELL IS AT THREE FEET TODAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING SIX FEET SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD
TO HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ON WEST FACING REEFS AT THAT TIME.
THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PALAU CIRCULATION AS IT TREKS ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE SEA. IT
STILL IS NOT CERTAIN WHAT KIND OF WIND FIELD WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CIRCULATION SO FETCH GENERATION AREAS ARE UNKNOWN. IF
THE KOSRAE CIRCULATION SAPS THIS CIRCULATION AS MENTIONED ABOVE
THEN THINGS COULD CHANGE. THE BEST THING TO DO IS KEEP WATCHING
THE FORECAST AS IT MOST LIKELY WILL CHANGE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN MICRONESIA. HOWEVER...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DOWNWARD TREND IN SHOWER COVERAGE
FOR KOSRAE AND MAJURO SO INCORPORATED SLIGHTLY DRIER WEATHER INTO
THE SHORT TERM. MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED DRYING TREND FOR
KOSRAE AND MAJURO TONIGHT AS RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS AND KOSRAE STATE. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A POSSIBLE EMBEDDED CIRCULATION WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH
WILL AFFECTING POHNPEI TODAY. FORECAST FOR POHNPEI IS HEAVILY
CONTINGENT ON THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EAST OF
POHNPEI. ECMWF IS COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH GFS SOLUTION IN
DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CONTINUED HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR POHNPEI. WAVE WATCH MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE ALTIMETRY INDICATES A STEADY DECLINE IN
SEA HEIGHTS IN KOSRAE STATE TODAY. HOWEVER...IF THE DISTURBANCE
EAST OF POHNPEI DEVELOPS FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...STRONG WINDS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM COULD GENERATE WEST SWELL WHICH
WOULD IMPACT KOSRAE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS SHIFTED
PRIMARILY NORTH OF CHUUK. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
FARTHER SOUTH OVER CHUUK DURING THE DAY TODAY SO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WERE CONTINUED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
OF THE DISTURBANCE NEAR POHNPEI COULD MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER CHUUK THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF
CHUUK ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W REMAINS EAST OF KOROR
BUT MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE FOUND WEST OF KOROR WATERS.
SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AT KOROR AND
YAP TODAY AND TONIGHT. RIDGING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF 96W AS IT MOVES NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL
USHER IN DRIER WEATHER FOR KOROR AND YAP A LITTLE SOONER THAN
EXPECTED PREVIOUSLY.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM INVEST 96W WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SWELL
GENERATED BY STRONG WINDS SOUTH OF THE CENTER. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR YAP AND KOROR AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SWELL GENERATED BY A RECENT MONSOON SURGE AND 96W WILL KEEP
SURF HAZARDOUS ON CHUUK THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/WILLIAMS








000
FXPQ60 PGUM 252339 CCA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...SPELLING CORRECTION FIRST PARAGRAPH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
837 AM CHST SAT JUL 26 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...THE MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE
MARIANAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS WILL BE A WET WEEKEND FOR THE MARIANAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST MADE EXCEPT FOR EXTENDING THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND NOON TODAY. ALL MODELS SEEM TO INITIALIZE
WELL IN TERMS OF POSITIONING THE CIRCULATION NEAR PALAU AND THE
MONSOON TROUGH LOCATION. FEEL CONFIDENT IN THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

AN INTERESTING SOLUTION IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH ALL THE
MODELS. EVEN OBSCURE MODELS FROM KOREA...TAIWAN AND AUSTRALIA LET
ALONE THE USUAL GFS...ECMWF AND NAVGEM. THERE IS A CIRCULATION
NORTH OF KOSRAE THIS MORNING. THESE MODELS DO SEE IT AND TO A
VARYING DEGREE DEVELOP IT AND MOVE IT TOWARDS THE MARIANAS. WITH
THIS AGREEMENT IT IS GETTING MORE LIKELY THAT SOMETHING WILL MOVE
OUR WAY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHAT WILL IT LOOK LIKE WHEN IT GETS
HERE. GFS GOES BONKERS WITH IT MAKING IT A TYPHOON OVER THE
NORTHERN MARIANAS. THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT DO THIS MAKING IT A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT BEST. NAVGEM HAS AN INTERESTING SOLUTION
IN THAT THE BIG CIRCULATION NEAR PALAU WILL ONLY HAVE A FEW DAYS
OF GLORY. BY TUESDAY THE MONSOON STARTS FLOWING INTO THE KOSRAE
CIRCULATION LEAVING THE OTHER ONE WEAK. NAVGEM ONLY MAKES IT
STRONGER AFTER IT PASSES WEST OF THE MARIANAS.

NOT CERTAIN ABOUT THE PARTICULARS SO FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH BUT THINGS COULD DRASTICALLY CHANGE IF THE KOSRAE
CIRCULATION PICKS UP STEAM. EVEN IF THE KOSRAE CIRCULATION DOES
NOT BECOME STRONG IN TERMS OF WIND IT WILL PROBABLY PUSH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IF THINGS DO NOT CHANGE IN THE
MODELS...SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD BE EXTENDED THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWEST AND AN EAST SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST.
THE EAST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE A FOOT BY TONIGHT. THE
WEST SWELL IS AT THREE FEET TODAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING SIX FEET SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD
TO HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ON WEST FACING REEFS AT THAT TIME.
THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PALAU CIRCULATION AS IT TREKS ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE SEA. IT
STILL IS NOT CERTAIN WHAT KIND OF WIND FIELD WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CIRCULATION SO FETCH GENERATION AREAS ARE UNKNOWN. IF
THE KOSRAE CIRCULATION SAPS THIS CIRCULATION AS MENTIONED ABOVE
THEN THINGS COULD CHANGE. THE BEST THING TO DO IS KEEP WATCHING
THE FORECAST AS IT MOST LIKELY WILL CHANGE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN MICRONESIA. HOWEVER...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DOWNWARD TREND IN SHOWER COVERAGE
FOR KOSRAE AND MAJURO SO INCORPORATED SLIGHTLY DRIER WEATHER INTO
THE SHORT TERM. MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED DRYING TREND FOR
KOSRAE AND MAJURO TONIGHT AS RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS AND KOSRAE STATE. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A POSSIBLE EMBEDDED CIRCULATION WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH
WILL AFFECTING POHNPEI TODAY. FORECAST FOR POHNPEI IS HEAVILY
CONTINGENT ON THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EAST OF
POHNPEI. ECMWF IS COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH GFS SOLUTION IN
DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CONTINUED HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR POHNPEI. WAVE WATCH MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE ALTIMETRY INDICATES A STEADY DECLINE IN
SEA HEIGHTS IN KOSRAE STATE TODAY. HOWEVER...IF THE DISTURBANCE
EAST OF POHNPEI DEVELOPS FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...STRONG WINDS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM COULD GENERATE WEST SWELL WHICH
WOULD IMPACT KOSRAE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS SHIFTED
PRIMARILY NORTH OF CHUUK. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
FARTHER SOUTH OVER CHUUK DURING THE DAY TODAY SO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WERE CONTINUED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
OF THE DISTURBANCE NEAR POHNPEI COULD MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER CHUUK THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF
CHUUK ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W REMAINS EAST OF KOROR
BUT MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE FOUND WEST OF KOROR WATERS.
SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AT KOROR AND
YAP TODAY AND TONIGHT. RIDGING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF 96W AS IT MOVES NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL
USHER IN DRIER WEATHER FOR KOROR AND YAP A LITTLE SOONER THAN
EXPECTED PREVIOUSLY.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96W WILL BE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST SWELL GENERATED BY STRONG WINDS SOUTH OF THE CENTER. A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR YAP AND KOROR AND WILL LIKELY
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SWELL GENERATED BY A RECENT MONSOON
SURGE AND 96W WILL KEEP SURF HAZARDOUS ON CHUUK THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/WILLIAMS










000
FXPQ60 PGUM 252237
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
837 AM CHST SAT JUL 26 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...THE MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE
MARIANAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS WILL BE A WET WEEKEND FOR THE MARINAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST MADE EXCEPT FOR EXTENDING THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND NOON TODAY. ALL MODELS SEEM TO INITIALIZE
WELL IN TERMS OF POSITIONING THE CIRCULATION NEAR PALAU AND THE
MONSOON TROUGH LOCATION. FEEL CONFIDENT IN THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

AN INTERESTING SOLUTION IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH ALL THE
MODELS. EVEN OBSCURE MODELS FROM KOREA...TAIWAN AND AUSTRALIA LET
ALONE THE USUAL GFS...ECMWF AND NAVGEM. THERE IS A CIRCULATION
NORTH OF KOSRAE THIS MORNING. THESE MODELS DO SEE IT AND TO A
VARYING DEGREE DEVELOP IT AND MOVE IT TOWARDS THE MARIANAS. WITH
THIS AGREEMENT IT IS GETTING MORE LIKELY THAT SOMETHING WILL MOVE
OUR WAY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHAT WILL IT LOOK LIKE WHEN IT GETS
HERE. GFS GOES BONKERS WITH IT MAKING IT A TYPHOON OVER THE
NORTHERN MARIANAS. THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT DO THIS MAKING IT A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT BEST. NAVGEM HAS AN INTERESTING SOLUTION
IN THAT THE BIG CIRCULATION NEAR PALAU WILL ONLY HAVE A FEW DAYS
OF GLORY. BY TUESDAY THE MONSOON STARTS FLOWING INTO THE KOSRAE
CIRCULATION LEAVING THE OTHER ONE WEAK. NAVGEM ONLY MAKES IT
STRONGER AFTER IT PASSES WEST OF THE MARIANAS.

NOT CERTAIN ABOUT THE PARTICULARS SO FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH BUT THINGS COULD DRASTICALLY CHANGE IF THE KOSRAE
CIRCULATION PICKS UP STEAM. EVEN IF THE KOSRAE CIRCULATION DOES
NOT BECOME STRONG IN TERMS OF WIND IT WILL PROBABLY PUSH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IF THINGS DO NOT CHANGE IN THE
MODELS...SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD BE EXTENDED THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWEST AND AN EAST SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST.
THE EAST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE A FOOT BY TONIGHT. THE
WEST SWELL IS AT THREE FEET TODAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING SIX FEET SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD
TO HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ON WEST FACING REEFS AT THAT TIME.
THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PALAU CIRCULATION AS IT TREKS ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE SEA. IT
STILL IS NOT CERTAIN WHAT KIND OF WIND FIELD WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CIRCULATION SO FETCH GENERATION AREAS ARE UNKNOWN. IF
THE KOSRAE CIRCULATION SAPS THIS CIRCULATION AS MENTIONED ABOVE
THEN THINGS COULD CHANGE. THE BEST THING TO DO IS KEEP WATCHING
THE FORECAST AS IT MOST LIKELY WILL CHANGE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN MICRONESIA. HOWEVER...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DOWNWARD TREND IN SHOWER COVERAGE
FOR KOSRAE AND MAJURO SO INCORPORATED SLIGHTLY DRIER WEATHER INTO
THE SHORT TERM. MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED DRYING TREND FOR
KOSRAE AND MAJURO TONIGHT AS RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS AND KOSRAE STATE. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A POSSIBLE EMBEDDED CIRCULATION WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH
WILL AFFECTING POHNPEI TODAY. FORECAST FOR POHNPEI IS HEAVILY
CONTINGENT ON THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EAST OF
POHNPEI. ECMWF IS COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH GFS SOLUTION IN
DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CONTINUED HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR POHNPEI. WAVE WATCH MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE ALTIMETRY INDICATES A STEADY DECLINE IN
SEA HEIGHTS IN KOSRAE STATE TODAY. HOWEVER...IF THE DISTURBANCE
EAST OF POHNPEI DEVELOPS FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...STRONG WINDS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM COULD GENERATE WEST SWELL WHICH
WOULD IMPACT KOSRAE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS SHIFTED
PRIMARILY NORTH OF CHUUK. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
FARTHER SOUTH OVER CHUUK DURING THE DAY TODAY SO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WERE CONTINUED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
OF THE DISTURBANCE NEAR POHNPEI COULD MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER CHUUK THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF
CHUUK ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W REMAINS EAST OF KOROR
BUT MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE FOUND WEST OF KOROR WATERS.
SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AT KOROR AND
YAP TODAY AND TONIGHT. RIDGING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF 96W AS IT MOVES NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL
USHER IN DRIER WEATHER FOR KOROR AND YAP A LITTLE SOONER THAN
EXPECTED PREVIOUSLY.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96W WILL BE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST SWELL GENERATED BY STRONG WINDS SOUTH OF THE CENTER. A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR YAP AND KOROR AND WILL LIKELY
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SWELL GENERATED BY A RECENT MONSOON
SURGE AND 96W WILL KEEP SURF HAZARDOUS ON CHUUK THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/WILLIAMS







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