Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXPQ60 PGUM 030628 RRA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RETRANSMITTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
420 PM CHST TUE MAR 3 2015

RETRANSMITTED TO PLACE ON THE WEB

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LEADING EDGE OF A TRADE-WIND SURGE IS MOVING OVER THE
MARIANAS...BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS EAST OF THE MARIANAS SHOWS A
SWATH OF AT LEAST 20 KT SUSTAINED EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS. 00Z
SOUNDING SHOWED SOME DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASED MOISTURE SINCE
LAST NIGHT AS THE EFFECTS FROM THE TRADE-WIND SURGE BEGIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TRADE-WIND SURGE AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL PASS OVER THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BUT
DRIER WEATHER WILL RESUME LATER THIS EVENING. MODELS HANDLE THE
TRADE-WIND SURGE EVENT WELL WITH WINDS INITIALIZING CLOSELY WITH
SCATTEROMETER DATA NORTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL PEAK AT FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG LEVELS WEDNESDAY BEFORE
FALLING SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ONLY WEAK TRADE-
WIND DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE MARIANAS THIS
WEEK. ONE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AND ANOTHER BY THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...EFFECTS ON THE MARIANAS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH
EXPANDED CLOUD COVER AND A MARGINAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS.
OVERALL...A TYPICAL DRY SEASON REGIME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SCATTEROMETER PASS EAST OF THE MARIANAS SHOWS AN AREA OF WINDS
CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS. THE STRONGER WINDS HAVE
ALREADY PUSHED INTO SAIPAN WATERS WITH SAIPAN OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING WIND GUSTS EVERY HOUR FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS ABOVE 22
KT. THIS WILL BE A SHORT LIVED EVENT. RITIDIAN BUOY IS STILL
SHOWING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 7 FEET. THE SWATH OF
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IS SMALL ENOUGH TO DELAY SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING 10 FEET IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER...WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT SEAS MAY RISE TO NEAR 10 FEET BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON SO FURTHER ASSESSMENT WILL BE NEEDED AS THE EVENT
UNFOLDS. IN ADDITION...SURF COULD RISE TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS ON EAST
FACING REEFS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING TRADE-WIND
SWELL AND WAVES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRADE-WIND SURGE EVENT ARE ONGOING
ACROSS THE MARIANAS. HOWEVER...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT ALL OF GUAM
WILL SEE A WETTING RAINFALL. BENEFICIAL RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN GUAM SINCE THIS MORNING. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TRADE-WIND SURGE
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES WEST OF THE MARIANAS.
ASSESSMENT OF THE RAINFALL TODAY AND THIS AFTERNOON WILL DICTATE
THE DECISION ON WHETHER TO CONTINUE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR
TEMPORARILY SUSPEND THE WATCH.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS MAJURO OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE
AND ASCAT WIND ANALYSIS SHOW A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATOLLS OF THE RMI WHERE AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH IS PROVIDING DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE
TROUGH IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE WELCOME
FOR THOSE NORTHERN ATOLLS THIS TIME OF YEAR. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD
GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE RMI FROM EAST TO WEST LATER THIS
WEEK.

HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR MAJURO. EARLIER
ALTIMETRY DATA SHOWED COMBINED SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FEET NORTHEAST OF
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS AND ASCAT ANALYSIS NOW SHOWS 20 TO 25 KT
TRADE WINDS IN THAT AREA. THE WAVE WATCH MODEL INDICATES COMBINED
SEAS WILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 9 FT TONIGHT...WHICH IMPLIES A
FORECAST RANGE OF 8 TO 10 FEET. AT THIS TIME...THE SURF IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS.

MAINLY DRY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON BOTH KOSRAE AND POHNPEI
FOR THE NEAR TERM AT LEAST. MODELS INDICATE THE MONSOON TROUGH
SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF BOTH LOCATIONS...WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE RMI TODAY MOVES VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH REMAINS ALONG 2N-3N AND MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL FOR KOROR...YAP AND CHUUK. THE WEATHER
WILL BE UNSETTLED OVER KOROR AND YAP IN THE COMING DAYS...SINCE
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AS A
SHEAR LINE REFORMS AND SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE YAP AND KOROR
AREAS BY ABOUT THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. FAIRLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL ON CHUUK UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY WHEN SHOWERS ALONG THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH COULD SPREAD NORTHWARD.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY
     FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

WILLIAMS/SIMPSON





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 030628 RRA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RETRANSMITTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
420 PM CHST TUE MAR 3 2015

RETRANSMITTED TO PLACE ON THE WEB

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LEADING EDGE OF A TRADE-WIND SURGE IS MOVING OVER THE
MARIANAS...BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS EAST OF THE MARIANAS SHOWS A
SWATH OF AT LEAST 20 KT SUSTAINED EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS. 00Z
SOUNDING SHOWED SOME DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASED MOISTURE SINCE
LAST NIGHT AS THE EFFECTS FROM THE TRADE-WIND SURGE BEGIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TRADE-WIND SURGE AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL PASS OVER THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BUT
DRIER WEATHER WILL RESUME LATER THIS EVENING. MODELS HANDLE THE
TRADE-WIND SURGE EVENT WELL WITH WINDS INITIALIZING CLOSELY WITH
SCATTEROMETER DATA NORTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL PEAK AT FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG LEVELS WEDNESDAY BEFORE
FALLING SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ONLY WEAK TRADE-
WIND DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE MARIANAS THIS
WEEK. ONE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AND ANOTHER BY THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...EFFECTS ON THE MARIANAS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH
EXPANDED CLOUD COVER AND A MARGINAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS.
OVERALL...A TYPICAL DRY SEASON REGIME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SCATTEROMETER PASS EAST OF THE MARIANAS SHOWS AN AREA OF WINDS
CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS. THE STRONGER WINDS HAVE
ALREADY PUSHED INTO SAIPAN WATERS WITH SAIPAN OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING WIND GUSTS EVERY HOUR FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS ABOVE 22
KT. THIS WILL BE A SHORT LIVED EVENT. RITIDIAN BUOY IS STILL
SHOWING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 7 FEET. THE SWATH OF
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IS SMALL ENOUGH TO DELAY SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING 10 FEET IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER...WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT SEAS MAY RISE TO NEAR 10 FEET BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON SO FURTHER ASSESSMENT WILL BE NEEDED AS THE EVENT
UNFOLDS. IN ADDITION...SURF COULD RISE TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS ON EAST
FACING REEFS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING TRADE-WIND
SWELL AND WAVES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRADE-WIND SURGE EVENT ARE ONGOING
ACROSS THE MARIANAS. HOWEVER...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT ALL OF GUAM
WILL SEE A WETTING RAINFALL. BENEFICIAL RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN GUAM SINCE THIS MORNING. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TRADE-WIND SURGE
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES WEST OF THE MARIANAS.
ASSESSMENT OF THE RAINFALL TODAY AND THIS AFTERNOON WILL DICTATE
THE DECISION ON WHETHER TO CONTINUE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR
TEMPORARILY SUSPEND THE WATCH.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS MAJURO OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE
AND ASCAT WIND ANALYSIS SHOW A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATOLLS OF THE RMI WHERE AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH IS PROVIDING DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE
TROUGH IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE WELCOME
FOR THOSE NORTHERN ATOLLS THIS TIME OF YEAR. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD
GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE RMI FROM EAST TO WEST LATER THIS
WEEK.

HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR MAJURO. EARLIER
ALTIMETRY DATA SHOWED COMBINED SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FEET NORTHEAST OF
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS AND ASCAT ANALYSIS NOW SHOWS 20 TO 25 KT
TRADE WINDS IN THAT AREA. THE WAVE WATCH MODEL INDICATES COMBINED
SEAS WILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 9 FT TONIGHT...WHICH IMPLIES A
FORECAST RANGE OF 8 TO 10 FEET. AT THIS TIME...THE SURF IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS.

MAINLY DRY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON BOTH KOSRAE AND POHNPEI
FOR THE NEAR TERM AT LEAST. MODELS INDICATE THE MONSOON TROUGH
SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF BOTH LOCATIONS...WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE RMI TODAY MOVES VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH REMAINS ALONG 2N-3N AND MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL FOR KOROR...YAP AND CHUUK. THE WEATHER
WILL BE UNSETTLED OVER KOROR AND YAP IN THE COMING DAYS...SINCE
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AS A
SHEAR LINE REFORMS AND SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE YAP AND KOROR
AREAS BY ABOUT THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. FAIRLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL ON CHUUK UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY WHEN SHOWERS ALONG THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH COULD SPREAD NORTHWARD.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY
     FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

WILLIAMS/SIMPSON





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 022353 RRA
AFDPQ

AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
758 AM CHST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EARLIER THIS MORNING DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALED EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 10 THOUSAND
FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MARIANAS REMAIN IN A DRY SEASON TRADE-WIND REGIME. IT HAS BEEN
OVER A MONTH SINCE WE HAD A WETTING RAIN AND NONE LOOK
PARTICULARLY LIKELY WITHIN THE FORECAST PERIOD EITHER. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL RISE A BIT...PROBABLY REQUIRING A RED FLAG WARNING LATER
TODAY AND BRING US RIGHT UP TO THE EDGE OF SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH
SURF ADVISORIES.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS ARE 6 TO 7 FEET RIGHT NOW...EAST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PICK
UP SOON THOUGH. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BUMP RIGHT UP AGAINST THE
CRITERIA FOR SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES. THEN STARTING
THURSDAY WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH A BIT AGAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES...LOOKS LIKE A BIT MORE WIND TODAY ALSO.
AROUND MID-MORNING WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
TO A RED FLAG WARNING. BOTH THE GFS40 AND ECMWF-HIRES SHOW NO
LETUP IN THE DRY WEATHER ANYTIME SOON.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS PERSISTED JUST SOUTH
OF POHNPEI OVERNIGHT BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS CONVECTION
IS BEGINNING TO WANE. TO THE EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
PRESENT FARTHER SOUTH OF KOSRAE AND WELL SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO. BOTH
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE WILL SEE DRIER WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHILE MAJURO COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FROM AN AREA OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE TO THE EAST.
LATER IN THE WEEK...A TRADE-WIND SURGE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND
A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

ALTIMETRY DATA SHOWS SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FEET EAST OF THE
MARSHALLS...MAINLY NORTH OF 10N...IN AN AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT TRADE
WINDS. WAVE MODELS SHOW COMBINED SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 10 FEET
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THAT WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BECOME HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...SURF IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH REMAINS SOUTH OF KOROR...YAP AND CHUUK
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD
KOROR AND YAP. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER TONIGHT AT BOTH
LOCATIONS WITH QUIETER CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS
SHOW CONVECTION REDEVELOPING NORTH OF THE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK
FOR KOROR AND YAP. AT CHUUK...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AROUND FRIDAY AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH SPREAD
NORTHWARD.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/W. AYDLETT





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 022353 RRA
AFDPQ

AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
758 AM CHST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EARLIER THIS MORNING DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALED EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 10 THOUSAND
FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MARIANAS REMAIN IN A DRY SEASON TRADE-WIND REGIME. IT HAS BEEN
OVER A MONTH SINCE WE HAD A WETTING RAIN AND NONE LOOK
PARTICULARLY LIKELY WITHIN THE FORECAST PERIOD EITHER. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL RISE A BIT...PROBABLY REQUIRING A RED FLAG WARNING LATER
TODAY AND BRING US RIGHT UP TO THE EDGE OF SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH
SURF ADVISORIES.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS ARE 6 TO 7 FEET RIGHT NOW...EAST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PICK
UP SOON THOUGH. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BUMP RIGHT UP AGAINST THE
CRITERIA FOR SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES. THEN STARTING
THURSDAY WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH A BIT AGAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES...LOOKS LIKE A BIT MORE WIND TODAY ALSO.
AROUND MID-MORNING WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
TO A RED FLAG WARNING. BOTH THE GFS40 AND ECMWF-HIRES SHOW NO
LETUP IN THE DRY WEATHER ANYTIME SOON.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS PERSISTED JUST SOUTH
OF POHNPEI OVERNIGHT BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS CONVECTION
IS BEGINNING TO WANE. TO THE EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
PRESENT FARTHER SOUTH OF KOSRAE AND WELL SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO. BOTH
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE WILL SEE DRIER WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHILE MAJURO COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FROM AN AREA OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE TO THE EAST.
LATER IN THE WEEK...A TRADE-WIND SURGE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND
A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

ALTIMETRY DATA SHOWS SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FEET EAST OF THE
MARSHALLS...MAINLY NORTH OF 10N...IN AN AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT TRADE
WINDS. WAVE MODELS SHOW COMBINED SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 10 FEET
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THAT WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BECOME HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...SURF IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH REMAINS SOUTH OF KOROR...YAP AND CHUUK
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD
KOROR AND YAP. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER TONIGHT AT BOTH
LOCATIONS WITH QUIETER CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS
SHOW CONVECTION REDEVELOPING NORTH OF THE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK
FOR KOROR AND YAP. AT CHUUK...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AROUND FRIDAY AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH SPREAD
NORTHWARD.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/W. AYDLETT





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 020726 RRA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RETRANSMITTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
516 PM CHST MON MAR 2 2015

RETRANSMITTED TO PLACE ON THE WEB

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WITHIN THE MARIANAS
WATERS...MAINLY TO THE WEST MOVING AWAY. THE VAD WIND PROFILE
REVEALS EAST WINDS OF 13 TO 21 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 7
THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AIR MASS OVER THE MARIANAS HAS PRIMARILY ASSUMED MARITIME
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...THE USUALLY PREVAILING CLIMATE REGIME
HERE. IT IS NOW A BIT WARMER AND MORE HUMID...AND WE ARE NOW
GETTING MEASURABLE RAIN MORE OFTEN. EVEN SO...MODEL OUTLOOK STILL
SHOWS QPF AMOUNTS THAT ARE LOW AND HUMIDITIES STILL FAIRLY LOW
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SEE LITTLE CHANGE...KEEPING US IN A
TRADE-WIND REGIME FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOME SWELL IS EXPECTED TO COME DOWN FROM THE NORTH. FOR NOW...WE
ARE KEEPING SURF AND SEAS BELOW HIGH SURF AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS. HOWEVER...SURF AND SEAS BUILD CLOSE ENOUGH TO THRESHOLD
VALUES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT THE SITUATION BEARS WATCHING.
SUSTAINED WINDS COULD INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS. THAT MIGHT REQUIRE AN
ADVISORY. IF COMBINED SEAS REACH 10 FEET...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WHILE WE ARE GETTING SOME MEASURABLE RAIN NOW...AMOUNTS ARE STILL
WOEFULLY SMALL. THINNER FUELS ARE NOW TINDERBOX DRY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO KICK UP A BIT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAKE A
RED FLAG WARNING RATHER LIKELY. ONLY JUST BARELY DECIDED NOT TO
ISSUE IT TODAY. DROUGHT INDEX IS NOW 648 AND SET TO CLIMB FARTHER.
THE GFS40 AND ECMWF-HIRES MODELS PREDICT NO WETTING RAINS OVER THE
NEXT 10 DAYS...JUST MORE OF THE SAME.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE-WIND
SURGE AND WEAK DISTURBANCE ARE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY NORTH
OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. MAJURO WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS FOUND NORTH AND EAST OF THE ATOLL. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS TUESDAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE TRADE-WIND SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND NAVGEM ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A
BAND OF CONVECTION OVER MAJURO DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO LEFT
ISOLATED COVERAGE IN FOR NOW. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY
SOUTH AND WEST OF POHNPEI THROUGH THIS WEEK. SHOWERS MAY TRY TO
MAKE A COMEBACK OVER KOSRAE BY FRIDAY BUT FOR NOW MODELS SHOW THE
MAJORITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF KOSRAE
THROUGH THE WEEK.

COMBINED SEAS WILL RISE ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA IN RESPONSE TO
THE TRADE-WIND SURGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEAS COULD RISE
BRIEFLY TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN MAJURO WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AS TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL INCREASE ACROSS THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF CHUUK WATERS BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER WENO AT LEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH
WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE SOUTH OF CHUUK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...A SIMILAR SETUP TO THAT FOR POHNPEI. MODELS SHOW THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE TRADE-WIND SURGE REACHING CHUUK BY
FRIDAY...BRINGING AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ACTIVE
WEATHER NORTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND AN EMBEDDED WEAK CIRCULATION
WILL PERSIST NEAR KOROR THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY IF NOT TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF YAP. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RESUME
OVER KOROR LATE TUESDAY AS DRY NORTHEAST FLOW RETURNS. A WET
PATTERN COULD SET UP AGAIN OVER KOROR BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH BECOMES ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/WILLIAMS





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 012120
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
713 AM CHST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHEAST WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING. RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TWEAKED WINDS AT A FEW PLACES AND ADDED SOME CLOUDS TO FORECAST
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE MARIANAS COMPARED TO SUNDAY.
2 KFT WINDS ON THE VAD WERE 22 KNOTS AND THE 12Z SOUNDING LAST NIGHT
AT THE SAME LEVEL HAD WINDS OF 24 KNOTS. SCATTEROMETER PASS OVER
THE MARIANAS SHOWED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE MARIANAS.
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH TODAY WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY WITH A FURTHER INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC.

SOUNDING DATA SHOWED MOISTURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY.
00Z SUNDAY SOUNDING DATA RECORDED A PERCIPITABLE WATER INDEX (PWI)
OF 1.26 INCHES AND BY 12Z IT WAS 1.29 INCHES. RADAR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOWED ONLY A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST SHOULD SUFFICE.

MODELS SHOW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL INCREASE SOMETIME ON
TUESDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TRADE-WIND SURGE WILL BRING IN A
FEW CLOUDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS...ECMWF...NAVGEM AND
UKMET ALL HINT AT THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS. MODEL PREDICTIONS KEEP
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LACKING THOUGH SO ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS
AT BEST THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING FROM THE RITIDIAN AND IPAN BUOY INDICATED
SEAS AT AROUND 7 FEET. AN EAST AND NORTH SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE NORTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
CONSTANT TWO FEET THROUGH THE WEEK. THE NORTHEAST SWELL WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY. WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS BY
MIDWEEK EXPECT COMBINED SEAS TO INCREASE AS WELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS EXTENDED YESTERDAY TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
NOT CERTAIN IF WINDS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO GENERATE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TUESDAY. BUT WITH BREEZY WINDS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY A RED FLAG WARNING IS LIKELY AT THAT TIME.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN WELL SOUTH
OF POHNPEI ALONG THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH WHILE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN CLOSER TO KOSRAE AND MAJURO ALONG A NARROW
ZONE OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE. THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH WILL
STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH FOR THE WEEK WITH MODELS SHOWING MOST
CONVECTION REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY DRY AT ALL LOCATIONS BEFORE A
TRADE-WIND SURGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MARSHALLS REACHES THE
AREA BRINGING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK. COMBINED SEAS
WILL BE BETWEEN 5 AND 8 FEET THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SEEN SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE NEAR- EQUATORIAL
TROUGH. FARTHER WEST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
JUST SOUTH OF KOROR. ENHANCED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS BLOWING OVER CHUUK WHILE THE ACTUAL STORMS ARE
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...NEXT SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHUUK AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE A DRIER PERIOD TAKES OVER FOR MIDWEEK. FOR YAP AND
PALAU...BACKED OFF ON ONSET OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AT YAP UNTIL
TONIGHT AS CONVECTION GRADUALLY FILLS IN AT BOTH YAP AND KOROR. BY
MIDWEEK...SHOWERS WILL PUSH BACK TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF
DRIER PERIOD. BY LATE WEEK...A WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO ALL 3 LOCATIONS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/W. AYDLETT





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 010553 RRA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RE-SEND FOR WEB PAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
337 PM CHST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE MARIANAS. RADAR
INDICATES ONLY A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS FARTHER OUT TO THE EAST AROUND 148E AND
BEYOND. SEAS ARE STILL NEAR 7 FEET AT THE GUAM BUOYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS APPEAR DUE TO RETURN AS EASTERLY TRADES BRING IN
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FEET AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AN INCREASE IN THE TRADES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BUILD SEAS A FOOT OR SO FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. RIP RISK SHOULD BE MODERATE ALL WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRES THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE EXTENDED THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY...AS WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
AT TIMES AND INCREASE SOMEWHAT WED-THU WHEN RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE
A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH STRETCHES EASTWARD FROM A WEAK CIRCULATION
SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK THROUGH A SECOND WEAK CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF
POHNPEI. CONVERGING WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE SECOND CIRCULATION ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF
KOSRAE...ACROSS POHNPEI TO JUST EAST OF CHUUK. THESE SHOWERS WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT...KEEPING POHNPEI IN AN OVERALL
UNSTABLE PATTERN UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL DRIFT
INTO CHUUK WATERS LATER THIS EVENING...WITH MORE STABLE AND DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK TRADE-WIND
DISTURBANCE IS EXITING THE RMI THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DRIFT
WESTWARD TOWARD KOSRAE...MAINTAINING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE
STATE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF POHNPEI...ALLOWING STABLE CONDITIONS TO RETURN THERE MONDAY
MORNING. DRIER TRADE-WINDS ARE FILTERING INTO MAJURO THIS
EVENING...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS EVIDENT OVER THE MARSHALLS ON
THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. EXPECT CONTINUED DRYING
OVERNIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MAJURO BY MONDAY
MORNING. THESE DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD WESTWARD TO KOSRAE
TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST GFS40 SHOWS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH
DRIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

LATEST ALTIMETRY DATA AND WAVE WATCH MODELS INDICATE SEAS HAVE
SUBSIDED SUFFICIENTLY FOR SURF TO FALL BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS AT
KOSRAE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE CHUUK FORECAST DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED WITH EASTERN MICRONESIA
ABOVE.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD OUT OF CHUUK STATE IS
APPROACHING YAP AND PALAU. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TONIGHT AT YAP AND MONDAY AT KOROR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AT YAP BY MONDAY AND AT KOROR MONDAY NIGHT. THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH SOUTH OF KOROR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THIS TROUGH DRIFTS FURTHER
NORTHWARD...EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO LINGER A BIT LONGER AT
KOROR THAN YAP. DRY NORTHEASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED AT YAP BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY MOVE IN TO KOROR LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH IS PUSHED
BACK TOWARD THE EQUATOR.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CHST THIS EVENING FOR GUZ001.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 6 PM CHST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/KLEESCHULTE





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 010553 RRA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RE-SEND FOR WEB PAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
337 PM CHST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE MARIANAS. RADAR
INDICATES ONLY A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS FARTHER OUT TO THE EAST AROUND 148E AND
BEYOND. SEAS ARE STILL NEAR 7 FEET AT THE GUAM BUOYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS APPEAR DUE TO RETURN AS EASTERLY TRADES BRING IN
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FEET AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AN INCREASE IN THE TRADES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BUILD SEAS A FOOT OR SO FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. RIP RISK SHOULD BE MODERATE ALL WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRES THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE EXTENDED THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY...AS WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
AT TIMES AND INCREASE SOMEWHAT WED-THU WHEN RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE
A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH STRETCHES EASTWARD FROM A WEAK CIRCULATION
SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK THROUGH A SECOND WEAK CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF
POHNPEI. CONVERGING WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE SECOND CIRCULATION ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF
KOSRAE...ACROSS POHNPEI TO JUST EAST OF CHUUK. THESE SHOWERS WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT...KEEPING POHNPEI IN AN OVERALL
UNSTABLE PATTERN UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL DRIFT
INTO CHUUK WATERS LATER THIS EVENING...WITH MORE STABLE AND DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK TRADE-WIND
DISTURBANCE IS EXITING THE RMI THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DRIFT
WESTWARD TOWARD KOSRAE...MAINTAINING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE
STATE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF POHNPEI...ALLOWING STABLE CONDITIONS TO RETURN THERE MONDAY
MORNING. DRIER TRADE-WINDS ARE FILTERING INTO MAJURO THIS
EVENING...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS EVIDENT OVER THE MARSHALLS ON
THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. EXPECT CONTINUED DRYING
OVERNIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MAJURO BY MONDAY
MORNING. THESE DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD WESTWARD TO KOSRAE
TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST GFS40 SHOWS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH
DRIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

LATEST ALTIMETRY DATA AND WAVE WATCH MODELS INDICATE SEAS HAVE
SUBSIDED SUFFICIENTLY FOR SURF TO FALL BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS AT
KOSRAE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE CHUUK FORECAST DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED WITH EASTERN MICRONESIA
ABOVE.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD OUT OF CHUUK STATE IS
APPROACHING YAP AND PALAU. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TONIGHT AT YAP AND MONDAY AT KOROR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AT YAP BY MONDAY AND AT KOROR MONDAY NIGHT. THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH SOUTH OF KOROR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THIS TROUGH DRIFTS FURTHER
NORTHWARD...EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO LINGER A BIT LONGER AT
KOROR THAN YAP. DRY NORTHEASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED AT YAP BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY MOVE IN TO KOROR LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH IS PUSHED
BACK TOWARD THE EQUATOR.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CHST THIS EVENING FOR GUZ001.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 6 PM CHST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/KLEESCHULTE





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 282043 RRA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
642 AM CHST SUN MAR 1 2015

RESENT FOR POSTING ON WEBPAGE

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHEAST WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
MARIANAS THIS MORNING. RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST. WINDS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE MARIANAS COMPARED TO SATURDAY. 2 KFT WINDS ON THE VAD
WERE 26 KNOTS AND THE 12Z SOUNDING LAST NIGHT AT THE SAME LEVEL
HAD WINDS OF 23 KNOTS.

SCATTEROMETER PASSES MISSED THE MARIANAS BUT IT DID SHOW NORTHEAST
WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KTS NEAR THE MARIANAS. THE SCATTEROMETER
DID SHOW A PATCH OF 20 TO 25 KTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA. THE QUESTION IS WILL THIS PATCH EXPAND DURING THE DAY? THEY
COULD AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR JAPAN PUSHES OUT INTO THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC

WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH TODAY WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEK.
MODELS SHOW HIGHER WINDS WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC.

RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED ONLY A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. SOUNDING DATA SHOWED MOISTURE HAS DECREASED SINCE
YESTERDAY. 00Z SATURDAY SOUNDING DATA RECORDED A PERCIPITABLE
WATER INDEX (PWI) OF 1.60 INCHES AND BY 12Z IT WENT DOWN TO 1.34
INCHES. SATELLITE PWI AGREES WITH THE DECREASE. KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. CONVECTION SOUTH OF
10N IS PUMPING MOISTURE ALOFT AND MAY CREATE SOME CLOUDY PERIODS
TODAY.

MODEL PREDICTIONS KEEP DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LACKING THROUGH THE
FORECAST. GFS...ECMWF AND NAVGEM PORTRAY A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE MARIANAS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE THESE FEATURES
MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE CLOUDS STILL ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS
TO PREVAIL BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE.

&&

.MARINE...
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING FROM THE RITIDIAN AND IPAN BUOY INDICATED
SEAS AT AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET. THIS WAS A FOOT OR SO HIGHER THAN THE
OLD FORECAST...SO BUMPED UP COMBINED SEAS A FOOT TO AGREE WITH
OBSERVATIONS. AN EAST AND NORTHEAST SWELL ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
MARIANAS THIS MORNING. THE NORTHEAST SWELL WILL BE REPLACED BY A
NORTH SWELL MONDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL NOT BECOME LARGE SO ONLY
EXPECT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON NORTH AND EAST FACING
REEFS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WINDS AT 2KFT WERE AROUND 26 KTS.
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF 20 TO 25 KNTS TO THE
NORTHWEST. DO NOT THINK WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO BREACH THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BARRIER BUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT NEEDS TO BE
WATCHED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS STILL OUT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY
BE HIGH ENOUGH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOW ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO
PRODUCE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. WITH THE LOW
PROBABILITY OF A WETTING RAIN THIS WEEK AND WINDS REMAINING
ELEVATED IT IS LIKELY THAT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE
EXTENDED.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE TRADE-WIND SURGE ACROSS
EASTERN MICRONESIA IS BEGINNING TO EASE. HOWEVER A DIFFUSE
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SURGE CAN STILL
BE SEEN BETWEEN 3N AND 6N...EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM SOUTHWEST OF
POHNPEI AT 155E TO BEYOND THE DATE LINE NEAR 165W. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT POHNPEI AND
KOSRAE THRU MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NEAR MAJURO THRU THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK TRADE DISTURBANCE DEPARTS THE ATOLL. BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...DRIER TRADES WILL RETURN TO THE CAPITAL. THIS SAME
DISTURBANCE SHOULD PUSH SOUTHWESTWARD AND PASS SOUTH OF POHNPEI BUT
WILL REACH KOSRAE BY MONDAY NIGH AND PROLONG UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
THERE THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. AS TRADE CONVERGENCE DECREASES MORE TOWARD
MIDWEEK...FAIR WEATHER WILL SPREAD WESTWARD FROM MAJURO TO KOSRAE
AND POHNPEI. ANOTHER TRADE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY UPSTREAM EAST OF
THE DATE LINE NEAR 165W COULD BE THE NEXT SHOWER MAKER FOR THE
REGION AFTER MIDWEEK.

WITH THE TRADE-WIND SURGE WEAKENING ACROSS THE REGION...LATEST
ALTIMETRY DEPICTS A DOWNWARD TREND ON THE SEAS. THIS AGREES WITH
DECREASING TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL AS PREDICTED BY THE COMPUTER
MODELS. THEREFORE ANTICIPATE SURF ON KOSRAE TO STEADILY SUBSIDE
TODAY AND SHOULD DROP BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS BY THIS EVENING.
DESPITE THIS...HIGHER RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS
CHUUK...POHNPEI AND MAJURO UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A SURFACE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION ARE SLOWLY PULLING
WESTWARD FARTHER AWAY FROM CHUUK THIS MORNING. RESIDUAL SURFACE
CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE UP SPORADIC
CONVECTION NEAR CHUUK TODAY. BY THIS EVENING...SHOWER COVERAGE IS
GOING TO BECOME ISOLATED BUT A DIFFUSE TRADE CONVERGENCE ZONE
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NEAR POHNPEI WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MONDAY. AFTERWARD...MODERATE TRADES AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THRU MIDWEEK.

THE SURFACE TROUGH AND RELATED CIRCULATION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD FROM WEST OF CHUUK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
PUT AN END TO THE FAIR WEATHER OVER YAP AND KOROR. ANTICIPATE WET
WEATHER NEAR THESE FEATURES TO ARRIVE AT YAP BY TONIGHT AND THEN AT
KOROR MONDAY. WITH KOROR BEING CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AND
CIRCULATION...WETNESS WILL LIKELY LAST LONGER THERE THRU MIDWEEK.
ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS HAS PASSED WEST OF YAP ON TUESDAY EVENING...
DRIER NORTHEASTERLY TRADES SHOULD USHER IN DRIER CONDITIONS THERE.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 282043 RRA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
642 AM CHST SUN MAR 1 2015

RESENT FOR POSTING ON WEBPAGE

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHEAST WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
MARIANAS THIS MORNING. RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST. WINDS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE MARIANAS COMPARED TO SATURDAY. 2 KFT WINDS ON THE VAD
WERE 26 KNOTS AND THE 12Z SOUNDING LAST NIGHT AT THE SAME LEVEL
HAD WINDS OF 23 KNOTS.

SCATTEROMETER PASSES MISSED THE MARIANAS BUT IT DID SHOW NORTHEAST
WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KTS NEAR THE MARIANAS. THE SCATTEROMETER
DID SHOW A PATCH OF 20 TO 25 KTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA. THE QUESTION IS WILL THIS PATCH EXPAND DURING THE DAY? THEY
COULD AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR JAPAN PUSHES OUT INTO THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC

WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH TODAY WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEK.
MODELS SHOW HIGHER WINDS WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC.

RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED ONLY A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. SOUNDING DATA SHOWED MOISTURE HAS DECREASED SINCE
YESTERDAY. 00Z SATURDAY SOUNDING DATA RECORDED A PERCIPITABLE
WATER INDEX (PWI) OF 1.60 INCHES AND BY 12Z IT WENT DOWN TO 1.34
INCHES. SATELLITE PWI AGREES WITH THE DECREASE. KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. CONVECTION SOUTH OF
10N IS PUMPING MOISTURE ALOFT AND MAY CREATE SOME CLOUDY PERIODS
TODAY.

MODEL PREDICTIONS KEEP DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LACKING THROUGH THE
FORECAST. GFS...ECMWF AND NAVGEM PORTRAY A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE MARIANAS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE THESE FEATURES
MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE CLOUDS STILL ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS
TO PREVAIL BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE.

&&

.MARINE...
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING FROM THE RITIDIAN AND IPAN BUOY INDICATED
SEAS AT AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET. THIS WAS A FOOT OR SO HIGHER THAN THE
OLD FORECAST...SO BUMPED UP COMBINED SEAS A FOOT TO AGREE WITH
OBSERVATIONS. AN EAST AND NORTHEAST SWELL ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
MARIANAS THIS MORNING. THE NORTHEAST SWELL WILL BE REPLACED BY A
NORTH SWELL MONDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL NOT BECOME LARGE SO ONLY
EXPECT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON NORTH AND EAST FACING
REEFS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WINDS AT 2KFT WERE AROUND 26 KTS.
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF 20 TO 25 KNTS TO THE
NORTHWEST. DO NOT THINK WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO BREACH THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BARRIER BUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT NEEDS TO BE
WATCHED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS STILL OUT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY
BE HIGH ENOUGH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOW ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO
PRODUCE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. WITH THE LOW
PROBABILITY OF A WETTING RAIN THIS WEEK AND WINDS REMAINING
ELEVATED IT IS LIKELY THAT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE
EXTENDED.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE TRADE-WIND SURGE ACROSS
EASTERN MICRONESIA IS BEGINNING TO EASE. HOWEVER A DIFFUSE
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SURGE CAN STILL
BE SEEN BETWEEN 3N AND 6N...EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM SOUTHWEST OF
POHNPEI AT 155E TO BEYOND THE DATE LINE NEAR 165W. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT POHNPEI AND
KOSRAE THRU MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NEAR MAJURO THRU THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK TRADE DISTURBANCE DEPARTS THE ATOLL. BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...DRIER TRADES WILL RETURN TO THE CAPITAL. THIS SAME
DISTURBANCE SHOULD PUSH SOUTHWESTWARD AND PASS SOUTH OF POHNPEI BUT
WILL REACH KOSRAE BY MONDAY NIGH AND PROLONG UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
THERE THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. AS TRADE CONVERGENCE DECREASES MORE TOWARD
MIDWEEK...FAIR WEATHER WILL SPREAD WESTWARD FROM MAJURO TO KOSRAE
AND POHNPEI. ANOTHER TRADE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY UPSTREAM EAST OF
THE DATE LINE NEAR 165W COULD BE THE NEXT SHOWER MAKER FOR THE
REGION AFTER MIDWEEK.

WITH THE TRADE-WIND SURGE WEAKENING ACROSS THE REGION...LATEST
ALTIMETRY DEPICTS A DOWNWARD TREND ON THE SEAS. THIS AGREES WITH
DECREASING TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL AS PREDICTED BY THE COMPUTER
MODELS. THEREFORE ANTICIPATE SURF ON KOSRAE TO STEADILY SUBSIDE
TODAY AND SHOULD DROP BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS BY THIS EVENING.
DESPITE THIS...HIGHER RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS
CHUUK...POHNPEI AND MAJURO UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A SURFACE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION ARE SLOWLY PULLING
WESTWARD FARTHER AWAY FROM CHUUK THIS MORNING. RESIDUAL SURFACE
CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE UP SPORADIC
CONVECTION NEAR CHUUK TODAY. BY THIS EVENING...SHOWER COVERAGE IS
GOING TO BECOME ISOLATED BUT A DIFFUSE TRADE CONVERGENCE ZONE
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NEAR POHNPEI WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MONDAY. AFTERWARD...MODERATE TRADES AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THRU MIDWEEK.

THE SURFACE TROUGH AND RELATED CIRCULATION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD FROM WEST OF CHUUK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
PUT AN END TO THE FAIR WEATHER OVER YAP AND KOROR. ANTICIPATE WET
WEATHER NEAR THESE FEATURES TO ARRIVE AT YAP BY TONIGHT AND THEN AT
KOROR MONDAY. WITH KOROR BEING CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AND
CIRCULATION...WETNESS WILL LIKELY LAST LONGER THERE THRU MIDWEEK.
ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS HAS PASSED WEST OF YAP ON TUESDAY EVENING...
DRIER NORTHEASTERLY TRADES SHOULD USHER IN DRIER CONDITIONS THERE.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities