Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXPQ60 PGUM 080520
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
320 PM CHST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE SHOWS THE MARIANAS IN A LARGE MAINLY DRY AREA BETWEEN A
TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE WELL TO THE WEST AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OUT EAST OF THE ISLANDS. EAST WINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH...AND
SEAS ARE AROUND 7 FEET AT THE IPAN BUOY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE REDUCED ALREADY LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
TONIGHT IN VIEW OF THE VERY DRY SOUNDING AND MODEL PREDICTIONS OF
SIMILAR DRYNESS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST WAS UNCHANGED. THE
TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE MARIANAS WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WED-THU...AND A SHEARLINE MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
WILL DO THE SAME OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SHEARLINE SHOULD ALSO BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 6-8 FT SEAS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH WED
NIGHT...BUT THEN WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD RISE STARTING THURSDAY AS
THE SHEARLINE MOVES IN...REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE KBDI ABOUT TO BREAK 700 AND WINDS RISING LATE THIS
WEEK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS MID-WEEK AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND MAY
MITIGATE FIRE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT...BUT THIS FAIRLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TRADE-WIND CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH
OF MAJURO AND EAST OF KOSRAE. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL DECREASE MIDWEEK...BUT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND AT MAJURO. MODELS HINT AT A SMALL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEK AT KOSRAE AND MAJURO.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT ACROSS
POHNPEI...KOSRAE AND MAJURO COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
SLOWLY DECLINE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ADVISORY LEVEL
CONDITIONS ENDING AT ALL LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. LARGE
TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS SURF ALONG EAST
FACING SHORES OF POHNPEI...KOSRAE AND MAJURO. THE THREAT OF
INUNDATION AT MAJURO IS STILL PRESENT DUE TO HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES...ALTHOUGH BELOW-NORMAL SEA LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT
EL NINO WILL REDUCE THE THREAT SOMEWHAT. NONETHELESS...INUNDATION OF
1 TO 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT MAJURO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SURF IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS AT MAJURO BY
WEDNESDAY...POHNPEI BY TUESDAY WHILE LINGERING ON KOSRAE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DRY EAST-NORTHEAST TRADE-WIND PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED. AT YAP AND
KOROR...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.

TRADE-WINDS...SWELL AND WAVES WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS CHUUK COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD LATE IN
THE WEEK AT YAP AND KOROR AS NORTH SWELL ARRIVES FROM A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF OF JAPAN.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/W. AYDLETT





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 072059
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
659 AM CHST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWS ONLY A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE MARIANAS WATERS WHILE A DEPARTING TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS
FOUND WEST OF THE ISLANDS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 12 TO 22 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 THOUSAND
FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MARIANAS REMAIN IN A RATHER DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN. THE
DISTURBANCE NOW TO THE WEST DID MANAGE TO DROP A WETTING RAIN
YESTERDAY AT THE AIRPORT...JUST BARELY. SINCE MIDNIGHT THE AIRPORT
HAS HAD ONLY A TRACE...WHICH MAKES TODAY A REAL NAIL BITER FOR THE
DROUGHT INDEX. ANY MEASURABLE RAIN TODAY WILL START TO NIBBLE AWAY
AT THE DROUGHT INDEX A BIT. IF GUAM INTL AIRPORT RECEIVES ONLY A
TRACE...THE KBDI WILL KEEP RISING UNTIL ANOTHER WETTING RAIN EVENT.
STRONGER WINDS ARE PROGGED TO COME A LITTLE LATER THIS WEEK WITH A
DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEEDS OVER THE WEEKEND TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER...LOAD SHEDDING MEANT THAT MODEL GRIDS AVAILABLE FOR
POPULATING INTO THE FORECAST WERE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THAT IS THE
REASON I STARTED WITH THE GFSDNG AS IT HAD THE FEWEST GAPS. OTHER
THAN PUSHING THE STRONG WINDS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THERE
WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
LOCATIONS WITH ONLY MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER OBSERVED FROM
CHUUK STATE EASTWARD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK WITH MODELS HINTING AT A CHANGE LATE IN THE WEEK ACROSS
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS WHEN DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TRIES TO
MAKE A COMEBACK. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS
HIGH AS THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO ACROSS THE REGION AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FURTHER LATER THIS WEEK.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT ACROSS
POHNPEI...KOSRAE AND MAJURO COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
SLOWLY DECLINE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ADVISORY LEVEL
CONDITIONS ENDING AT ALL LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LARGE TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF MAJURO...KOSRAE AND MAJURO. THE
THREAT OF INUNDATION AT MAJURO IS STILL PRESENT DUE TO VERY HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...ALTHOUGH BELOW NORMAL SEA LEVELS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CURRENT EL NINO WILL REDUCE THE THREAT SOMEWHAT.
NONETHELESS...INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT MAJURO DURING
THE NEXT 4 HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SURF IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
HAZARDOUS LEVELS AT MAJURO BY WEDNESDAY...POHNPEI BY TUESDAY WHILE
LINGERING ON KOSRAE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DRY EAST-NORTHEAST TRADE-WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER CHUUK AND YAP
STATES AS WELL AS PALAU. NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THESE LOCATIONS WITH MODELS INDICATING DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINING GENERALLY SOUTH OF 3N THIS WEEK.

TRADE-WINDS...SWELL AND WAVES WILL REMAINS HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS CHUUK COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD LATE IN
THE WEEK AT YAP AND KOROR AS NORTH SWELL ARRIVES FROM A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF OF JAPAN.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/WILLIAMS





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 072059
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
659 AM CHST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWS ONLY A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE MARIANAS WATERS WHILE A DEPARTING TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS
FOUND WEST OF THE ISLANDS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 12 TO 22 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 THOUSAND
FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MARIANAS REMAIN IN A RATHER DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN. THE
DISTURBANCE NOW TO THE WEST DID MANAGE TO DROP A WETTING RAIN
YESTERDAY AT THE AIRPORT...JUST BARELY. SINCE MIDNIGHT THE AIRPORT
HAS HAD ONLY A TRACE...WHICH MAKES TODAY A REAL NAIL BITER FOR THE
DROUGHT INDEX. ANY MEASURABLE RAIN TODAY WILL START TO NIBBLE AWAY
AT THE DROUGHT INDEX A BIT. IF GUAM INTL AIRPORT RECEIVES ONLY A
TRACE...THE KBDI WILL KEEP RISING UNTIL ANOTHER WETTING RAIN EVENT.
STRONGER WINDS ARE PROGGED TO COME A LITTLE LATER THIS WEEK WITH A
DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEEDS OVER THE WEEKEND TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER...LOAD SHEDDING MEANT THAT MODEL GRIDS AVAILABLE FOR
POPULATING INTO THE FORECAST WERE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THAT IS THE
REASON I STARTED WITH THE GFSDNG AS IT HAD THE FEWEST GAPS. OTHER
THAN PUSHING THE STRONG WINDS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THERE
WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
LOCATIONS WITH ONLY MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER OBSERVED FROM
CHUUK STATE EASTWARD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK WITH MODELS HINTING AT A CHANGE LATE IN THE WEEK ACROSS
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS WHEN DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TRIES TO
MAKE A COMEBACK. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS
HIGH AS THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO ACROSS THE REGION AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FURTHER LATER THIS WEEK.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT ACROSS
POHNPEI...KOSRAE AND MAJURO COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
SLOWLY DECLINE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ADVISORY LEVEL
CONDITIONS ENDING AT ALL LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LARGE TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF MAJURO...KOSRAE AND MAJURO. THE
THREAT OF INUNDATION AT MAJURO IS STILL PRESENT DUE TO VERY HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...ALTHOUGH BELOW NORMAL SEA LEVELS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CURRENT EL NINO WILL REDUCE THE THREAT SOMEWHAT.
NONETHELESS...INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT MAJURO DURING
THE NEXT 4 HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SURF IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
HAZARDOUS LEVELS AT MAJURO BY WEDNESDAY...POHNPEI BY TUESDAY WHILE
LINGERING ON KOSRAE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DRY EAST-NORTHEAST TRADE-WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER CHUUK AND YAP
STATES AS WELL AS PALAU. NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THESE LOCATIONS WITH MODELS INDICATING DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINING GENERALLY SOUTH OF 3N THIS WEEK.

TRADE-WINDS...SWELL AND WAVES WILL REMAINS HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS CHUUK COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD LATE IN
THE WEEK AT YAP AND KOROR AS NORTH SWELL ARRIVES FROM A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF OF JAPAN.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/WILLIAMS





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 070604
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
404 PM CHST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS PASSED OVER THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ADDED A FEW CLOUDS MID-WEEK AND SATURDAY OTHERWISE NO BIG
CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST. A WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE BROUGHT
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ARE WEST OF
THE ISLANDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. DRY
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FEATURE THAT CAUSES IT
APPEARS TO BE A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE PASSING SOUTH OF A SHEAR
LINE. THE SHEAR LINE ITSELF LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH
SOUTHWARDS TO BRING SOME CLOUDS AND AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY. THE MODELS DID HINT AT THESE FEATURES YESTERDAY BUT
HESITATED TO ADD. WITH MULTIPLE MODEL RUNS AND MODELS SHOWING THIS
PREDICTION FELT THAT THEIR IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD TO THE
FORECAST.

A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. EAST TRADE-WINDS WILL START BUILDING BY
MONDAY AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH BY MID-WEEK. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH
WILL CORRESPOND TO A FURTHER INCREASE IN WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
IPAN AND TANAPAG BUOY DATA SHOW COMBINED SEAS AROUND 5 TO 7 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON. EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST. THE EAST SWELL WILL PRODUCE SURF OF 7 TO 9 FEET AND
GENERATE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ON EAST FACING REEFS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A NORTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SMALL. SEAS WILL INCREASE THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AS WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE SEEN JUST SOUTH OF POHNPEI AND NEAR MAJURO...BUT
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS DRY ACROSS THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO THE EQUATOR IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF 3N. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE THICKER HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERIODICALLY PASS OVERHEAD
MOST AREAS LATER THIS WEEK BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LOW.
ASCAT INDICATES 20 TO 30 KT WINDS JUST UPWIND OF THE MARSHALLS WITH
NEAR 25 KT WINDS SEEN NORTHEAST OF KOSRAE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLACKEN SOME BY MIDWEEK.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM POHNPEI TO KOSRAE AND
MAJURO. ALSO...SEAS AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS FOR
SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AT ALL 3 LOCATIONS.
AT MAJURO...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH SURF AND KING TIDES...SOME
COASTAL INUNDATION IS EXPECTED AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDES THROUGH
MIDWEEK. PACIOOS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL LEVEL OF INUNDATION COMPARABLE
TO OR A LITTLE HIGHER THAN A 2011 EVENT IN WHICH WATER CRESTED AT
THE ROADWAY AROUND THE AIRPORT.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A SURFACE TROUGH PASSING JUST EAST OF YAP WILL SLOWLY MOVE BY KOROR
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
BE FOUND NORTH OF KOROR. OTHERWISE...DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN WILL
PERSIST AT KOROR...YAP AND CHUUK FOR THE WEEK.

INCREASED WINDS AND TRADE-WIND SWELL AND WAVES WILL REMAINS HAZARDOUS
FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD LATE IN THE
WEEK AT YAP AND KOROR AS NORTH SWELL ARRIVES FROM A COLD FRONT
OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/W. AYDLETT





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 070604
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
404 PM CHST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS PASSED OVER THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ADDED A FEW CLOUDS MID-WEEK AND SATURDAY OTHERWISE NO BIG
CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST. A WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE BROUGHT
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ARE WEST OF
THE ISLANDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. DRY
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FEATURE THAT CAUSES IT
APPEARS TO BE A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE PASSING SOUTH OF A SHEAR
LINE. THE SHEAR LINE ITSELF LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH
SOUTHWARDS TO BRING SOME CLOUDS AND AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY. THE MODELS DID HINT AT THESE FEATURES YESTERDAY BUT
HESITATED TO ADD. WITH MULTIPLE MODEL RUNS AND MODELS SHOWING THIS
PREDICTION FELT THAT THEIR IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD TO THE
FORECAST.

A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. EAST TRADE-WINDS WILL START BUILDING BY
MONDAY AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH BY MID-WEEK. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH
WILL CORRESPOND TO A FURTHER INCREASE IN WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
IPAN AND TANAPAG BUOY DATA SHOW COMBINED SEAS AROUND 5 TO 7 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON. EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST. THE EAST SWELL WILL PRODUCE SURF OF 7 TO 9 FEET AND
GENERATE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ON EAST FACING REEFS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A NORTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SMALL. SEAS WILL INCREASE THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AS WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE SEEN JUST SOUTH OF POHNPEI AND NEAR MAJURO...BUT
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS DRY ACROSS THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO THE EQUATOR IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF 3N. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE THICKER HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERIODICALLY PASS OVERHEAD
MOST AREAS LATER THIS WEEK BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LOW.
ASCAT INDICATES 20 TO 30 KT WINDS JUST UPWIND OF THE MARSHALLS WITH
NEAR 25 KT WINDS SEEN NORTHEAST OF KOSRAE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLACKEN SOME BY MIDWEEK.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM POHNPEI TO KOSRAE AND
MAJURO. ALSO...SEAS AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS FOR
SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AT ALL 3 LOCATIONS.
AT MAJURO...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH SURF AND KING TIDES...SOME
COASTAL INUNDATION IS EXPECTED AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDES THROUGH
MIDWEEK. PACIOOS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL LEVEL OF INUNDATION COMPARABLE
TO OR A LITTLE HIGHER THAN A 2011 EVENT IN WHICH WATER CRESTED AT
THE ROADWAY AROUND THE AIRPORT.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A SURFACE TROUGH PASSING JUST EAST OF YAP WILL SLOWLY MOVE BY KOROR
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
BE FOUND NORTH OF KOROR. OTHERWISE...DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN WILL
PERSIST AT KOROR...YAP AND CHUUK FOR THE WEEK.

INCREASED WINDS AND TRADE-WIND SWELL AND WAVES WILL REMAINS HAZARDOUS
FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD LATE IN THE
WEEK AT YAP AND KOROR AS NORTH SWELL ARRIVES FROM A COLD FRONT
OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/W. AYDLETT





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 062121
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
721 AM CHST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST EAST OF THE
MARIANAS WATERS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS
EAST WINDS OF 6 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST 2 THOUSAND FEET OF THE
AIR WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS FROM 3 THOUSAND TO 6
THOUSAND FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER PATCH OF TRADE-WIND CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
BE SEEN ON SATELLITE THIS MORNING. THEREFORE CHANGED PARTLY CLOUDY
TO PARTLY SUNNY TODAY. REFRESHED THE WAVES WHICH WERE A BIT LOWER
AND...FOR THE MOST PART...CAME IN ON THE 06Z RUN. OTHERWISE DATA
WAS SPARSE SO KEPT CHANGES MINIMAL.

ASCAT SHOWS SOME NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE NEW COLD FRONT. IN A
DAY OR TWO WE WILL HAVE TO REVIEW THE POSSIBILITY OF A NORTHWEST
SWELL BIGGER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPECTING. STARTING WEDNESDAY
OR AFTER...WE COULD BE SEEING SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES
AND PERHAPS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...OR EVEN A RED FLAG WARNING IF
OTHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE KBDI CONTINUES ITS MARCH TOWARD A PERFECT 800... IT HAS NEVER
BEEN THIS HIGH ON FEBRUARY 7. BEING THE YEAR AFTER AN EL NINO...
THIS DRY SEASON IS ALSO LIKELY TO GO INTO EXTRA INNINGS. THIS IS
GOING TO BE OUR BEST SHOT AT 800 IN QUITE SOME TIME. IT IS NOW 694
WITH LITTLE IN SIGHT CAPABLE OF STOPPING IT...OR EVEN SLOWING IT
DOWN MUCH. ADD SOME WIND TO THE EQUATION AFTER MIDWEEK...AND IT
COULD BE A VOLATILE MIX FOR FIRE WEATHER. THE KBDI IS EXPECTED TO
REACH 700 TUESDAY AND COULD HIT 725 ON THE SIXTEENTH.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
DRY TRADE-WIND CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FROM CHUUK
STATE TO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE DICTATED BY
CONVECTIVE BURSTS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST LOCATIONS ALONG ZONES OF
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MUCH OF THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE POHNPEI WITH MAJURO AND
KOSRAE ALREADY UNDER THE ADVISORY. SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW ENE WINDS TRENDING UPWARD FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF MAJURO THROUGH
MONDAY...POHNPEI TONIGHT AND KOSRAE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DRY NORTHEAST TRADE-WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CHUUK STATE
WESTWARD...TOWARDS YAP AND PALAU THROUGH THIS WEEK. MODELS SHOW DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR YAP AND KOROR...EXACERBATING THE ONGOING
DROUGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUNDING DATA SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MOISTER
ATMOSPHERE OVER YAP AND KOROR BUT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
WEATHER ACROSS YAP STATE AND PALAU.

TRADE-WIND SWELL AND WAVES CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS CHUUK STATE BUT SURF
IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH HAZARDOUS LEVELS. SEAS ACROSS KOROR AND YAP
COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CALM IN THE COMING DAYS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/WILLIAMS





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 062121
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
721 AM CHST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST EAST OF THE
MARIANAS WATERS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS
EAST WINDS OF 6 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST 2 THOUSAND FEET OF THE
AIR WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS FROM 3 THOUSAND TO 6
THOUSAND FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER PATCH OF TRADE-WIND CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
BE SEEN ON SATELLITE THIS MORNING. THEREFORE CHANGED PARTLY CLOUDY
TO PARTLY SUNNY TODAY. REFRESHED THE WAVES WHICH WERE A BIT LOWER
AND...FOR THE MOST PART...CAME IN ON THE 06Z RUN. OTHERWISE DATA
WAS SPARSE SO KEPT CHANGES MINIMAL.

ASCAT SHOWS SOME NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE NEW COLD FRONT. IN A
DAY OR TWO WE WILL HAVE TO REVIEW THE POSSIBILITY OF A NORTHWEST
SWELL BIGGER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPECTING. STARTING WEDNESDAY
OR AFTER...WE COULD BE SEEING SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES
AND PERHAPS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...OR EVEN A RED FLAG WARNING IF
OTHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE KBDI CONTINUES ITS MARCH TOWARD A PERFECT 800... IT HAS NEVER
BEEN THIS HIGH ON FEBRUARY 7. BEING THE YEAR AFTER AN EL NINO...
THIS DRY SEASON IS ALSO LIKELY TO GO INTO EXTRA INNINGS. THIS IS
GOING TO BE OUR BEST SHOT AT 800 IN QUITE SOME TIME. IT IS NOW 694
WITH LITTLE IN SIGHT CAPABLE OF STOPPING IT...OR EVEN SLOWING IT
DOWN MUCH. ADD SOME WIND TO THE EQUATION AFTER MIDWEEK...AND IT
COULD BE A VOLATILE MIX FOR FIRE WEATHER. THE KBDI IS EXPECTED TO
REACH 700 TUESDAY AND COULD HIT 725 ON THE SIXTEENTH.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
DRY TRADE-WIND CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FROM CHUUK
STATE TO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE DICTATED BY
CONVECTIVE BURSTS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST LOCATIONS ALONG ZONES OF
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MUCH OF THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE POHNPEI WITH MAJURO AND
KOSRAE ALREADY UNDER THE ADVISORY. SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW ENE WINDS TRENDING UPWARD FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF MAJURO THROUGH
MONDAY...POHNPEI TONIGHT AND KOSRAE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DRY NORTHEAST TRADE-WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CHUUK STATE
WESTWARD...TOWARDS YAP AND PALAU THROUGH THIS WEEK. MODELS SHOW DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR YAP AND KOROR...EXACERBATING THE ONGOING
DROUGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUNDING DATA SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MOISTER
ATMOSPHERE OVER YAP AND KOROR BUT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
WEATHER ACROSS YAP STATE AND PALAU.

TRADE-WIND SWELL AND WAVES CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS CHUUK STATE BUT SURF
IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH HAZARDOUS LEVELS. SEAS ACROSS KOROR AND YAP
COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CALM IN THE COMING DAYS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/WILLIAMS





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 060831 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
631 PM CHST SAT FEB 6 2016

SYNOPSIS...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

DISCUSSION...
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE AREA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DECREASES. THIS LULL WILL BE TEMPORARY AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC THROUGH THE COMING
WEEK. EAST TRADE WINDS WILL START BUILDING BY MONDAY AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH BY MID-WEEK. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL
CORRESPOND TO A FURTHER INCREASE IN WINDS.

WEATHER SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE MARIANAS. WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE PREVAILING
CONDITIONS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. A SHEAR
LINE MAY PUSH DOWN TO THE LOCAL AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND AND BRING A
HIGHER CHANCE FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

MARINE...
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND LOCAL OBSERVATIONS SHOWED WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WERE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT. MODELS SHOW A RAPID DECREASE IN WINDS SO THE ADVISORY
WILL ONLY BE OUT UNTIL SUNSET.

IPAN AND TANAPAG BUOY DATA SHOW COMBINED SEAS AROUND 5 TO 7 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON. EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST. THE EAST SWELL WILL PRODUCE SURF OF 6 TO 8 FEET AND
GENERATE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ON EAST FACING REEFS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A NORTH SWELL HAS ENTERED THE AREA
BUT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SMALL. SEAS WILL INCREASE THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK AS WINDS INCREASE.

&&

UPDATED TO ADD MICRONESIA DISCUSSIONS

EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND NEAR 31N167E IS
CHANNELING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS TOWARD THE REGION. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS SURGE IS JUST EAST OF CHUUK THIS EVENING.
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADES COULD TRIGGER
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS ALL THE LOCATIONS FROM TIME TO TIME.
OTHERWISE...A GENERAL DRY TRADE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE MOST OF NEXT
WEEK.

THE FOCUS IS ON THE LARGE TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEY ARE ALREADY PRODUCING
HAZARDOUS SURF ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS AND KOSRAE STATE...AND
MIGHT SPREAD IT TO POHNPEI AND CHUUK STATES THIS WEEKEND.
COMBINING WITH A KING TIDE CYCLE OF HIGHER THAN 5 FEET NEAR
MAJURO...COASTAL INUNDATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING
HIGH TIDES ALONG EAST FACING SHORES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
ALSO BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

WESTERN MICRONESIA...
REASONING FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST IS INCLUDED IN THE EASTERN
MICRONESIA SECTION DUE TO A SIMILAR TREND.

TWO DISTINCT SURFACE TROUGHS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF
PALAU AND YAP STATE. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE PASSING SHOWERS
FOR BOTH PLACES THIS EVENING. THE ONE NEAR YAP HAS PRODUCED A
WETTING RAIN OF 0.20 INCHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CAN PROVIDE
TEMPORARY RELIEF ON DRY FUELS WHICH CAN CONTRIBUTE TO WILD FIRE.
HOWEVER...THIS MEANS VERY LITTLE IN TERMS OF REPLENISHING THE
WATER SUPPLY. A VERY DRY REGIME IS STILL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
COMING WEEK. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE CONSERVATION ON
WATER.

&&

GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST THIS EVENING
FOR PMZ151>154.

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 060625
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
425 PM CHST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE AREA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE-WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DECREASES. THIS LULL WILL BE TEMPORARY AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC THROUGH THE COMING
WEEK. EAST TRADE-WINDS WILL START BUILDING BY MONDAY AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH BY MID-WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO A
FURTHER INCREASE IN WINDS.

WEATHER SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE MARIANAS. WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK THE PREVAILING
CONDITION WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. A SHEAR
LINE MAY PUSH DOWN TO THE LOCAL AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND AND BRING A
HIGHER CHANCE FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCATTEREOMETER DATA AND LOCAL OBSERVATIONS SHOWED WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL
CRAFT. MODELS SHOW A RAPID DECREASE IN WINDS SO THE ADVISORY WILL
ONLY BE OUT UNTIL SUNSET.

IPAN AND TANAPAG BUOY DATA SHOW COMBINED SEAS AROUND 5 TO 7 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON. EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST. THE EAST SWELL WILL PRODUCE SURF OF 6 TO 8 FEET AND
GENERATE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ON EAST FACING REEFS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A NORTH SWELL HAS ENTERED THE AREA BUT
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SMALL. SEAS WILL INCREASE THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AS WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
WILL BE ADDED LATER

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
WILL BE ADDED LATER

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST THIS EVENING FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 060625
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
425 PM CHST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE AREA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE-WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DECREASES. THIS LULL WILL BE TEMPORARY AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC THROUGH THE COMING
WEEK. EAST TRADE-WINDS WILL START BUILDING BY MONDAY AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH BY MID-WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO A
FURTHER INCREASE IN WINDS.

WEATHER SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE MARIANAS. WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK THE PREVAILING
CONDITION WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. A SHEAR
LINE MAY PUSH DOWN TO THE LOCAL AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND AND BRING A
HIGHER CHANCE FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCATTEREOMETER DATA AND LOCAL OBSERVATIONS SHOWED WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL
CRAFT. MODELS SHOW A RAPID DECREASE IN WINDS SO THE ADVISORY WILL
ONLY BE OUT UNTIL SUNSET.

IPAN AND TANAPAG BUOY DATA SHOW COMBINED SEAS AROUND 5 TO 7 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON. EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST. THE EAST SWELL WILL PRODUCE SURF OF 6 TO 8 FEET AND
GENERATE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ON EAST FACING REEFS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A NORTH SWELL HAS ENTERED THE AREA BUT
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SMALL. SEAS WILL INCREASE THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AS WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
WILL BE ADDED LATER

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
WILL BE ADDED LATER

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST THIS EVENING FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN





000
FXPQ60 PGUM 052021
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
621 AM CHST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS IS APPROACHING THE MARIANAS WATERS FROM THE
EAST. OTHERWISE...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE SEEN IN THE MARIANAS
WATERS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS EAST WINDS OF 12 TO 25 KNOTS
THROUGH THE LOWEST 8 THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS INDICATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
MARIANAS TODAY. IN THE LOWER LEVEL IMAGERY...TEMPERATURES AS HIGH
AS 2 C CAN BE FOUND. THIS EQUATES TO AROUND 17 THOUSAND FEET IN
THE SOUNDING AND IS ALSO NEAR THE MAX CLOUD TOPS IN THE MORE
VIGOROUS CONVECTION...WHICH IS STILL UNDERWHELMING. 12Z SOUNDING
ALSO SHOWS STRONG TRADE-WIND INVERSION WITH TEMP 57 F AND DEWPOINT
56 F AT 5000 FEET AND TEMP 67 F AND DEWPOINT -6 F AT 6000 FEET.
THEREFORE MADE THE ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY OF LIGHT INTENSITY.

LITTLE OTHER NEW DATA WAS AVAILABLE...SO VERY FEW CHANGES WERE
MADE. MARIANAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A RATHER DRY
TRADE-WIND REGIME UNTIL MID-WEEK. AT THAT TIME A SHEAR LINE COULD
INTRODUCE MORE HIGH WINDS...AND HOPEFULLY ENOUGH RAIN TO MITIGATE
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. NORMALIZED DIFFERENCE VEGETATION INDEX
VALUES YESTERDAY SHOW THAT THE PLANTS ARE BEGINNING TO GET
STRESSED NOW. THE HIGHEST VALUES WERE AROUND 80. A LOT OF THEM ARE
NOW IN THE 60S. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TO SEE OF THE
EXPECTED EL NINO DROUGHT REALLY IS DEVELOPING. SEEMS LIKE IT HAS A
GOOD START...

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LINGERING MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT OVER THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS...BUT DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
MAJURO SOUTH OF 5N AND THIS IS WHERE THE ACTION WILL STAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDWEEK. LESS CLOUD COVER AND SIMILARLY DRY TRADE WIND
CONDITIONS ARE FOUND OVER KOSRAE AND POHNPEI. FORECAST FOR ALL
LOCATIONS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. MODELS
HINT AT DEEPER MOISTURE AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE RETURNING TO KOSRAE
SUNDAY BUT APPEARS MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF KOSRAE WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE
TO STRONGER TRADE WIND FLOW. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS
COASTAL WATERS AT ALL LOCATIONS. SURF WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AT
MAJURO TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY POHNPEI ON SUNDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUIET...DRY TRADE-WIND CONDITIONS ACROSS
CHUUK STATE. WEATHER PATTERN WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING LIGHT TRADE-WIND SHOWERS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER YAP STATE AND PALAU AS WELL AS SOUNDING DATA FROM
YAP AND KOROR INDICATE A VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE PATTERN OVER THE
REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AT YAP AND
KOROR ARE BOTH WELL BELOW ONE INCH AT 0.80 AND 0.86...RESPECTIVELY.
FORECAST FOR VERY DRY CONDITIONS WAS IMPLEMENTED FOR BOTH LOCATIONS
TODAY. A WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS SLATED TO PROGRESS WESTWARD
AND AFFECT YAP OVER THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE HOSTILE TO DEEP CONVECTION SO
ONLY ISOLATED SHALLOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THE DISTURBANCE WILL
TRANSLATE WESTWARD BRINGING MORE CLOUDS TO KOROR SUNDAY BUT SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE FOR REASONS DISCUSSED ABOVE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS CHUUK STATE IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONGER TRADE-WIND REGIME SETTING UP OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND
SEAS COULD RISE TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS TO OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT BY
SUNDAY AND SURF COULD SIMILARLY RISE TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS SUNDAY AS
WELL.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/WILLIAMS





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities