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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 310748
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
548 PM CHST FRI OCT 31 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W HAS FORMED IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND IS
CENTERED ABOUT 550 MILES TO THE WEST OF GUAM. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM 20W TO BETWEEN GUAM AND CHUUK.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WHERE THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS OCCURRING. AT PRESENT...THESE AREAS LIE OVER TINIAN AND SAIPAN
AND BETWEEN GUAM AND YAP...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN NOT DEVELOPING A SECONDARY
TROPICAL SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 20W. BASED UPON THIS...FAVORED
FORECAST SCENARIO REVOLVES AROUND THE BEHAVIOR OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
TO THE EAST OF 20W. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS40 MAINTAIN THE STRONGEST
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE OVER THE TINIAN AND SAIPAN ZONES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN MONSOON TROUGH BEGINS TO SLOWLY RETREAT TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF THE
FORECAST ZONES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND HEAD SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING DRIER TRADES TO
INFILTRATE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST ALTIMETRY AND BUOY READINGS ONLY INDICATE 3 TO 5 FT SEAS IN
THE MARINE ZONES. TRIMMED TRADE SWELL A FOOT TO AGREE WITH THE
LATEST READINGS. LATEST ASCAT ANALYSIS INDICATES A LARGE FETCH
GENERATION AREA FORMING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF 20W. WAVE WATCH MODEL
IS PICKING UP ON THIS...SO HAVE BEEFED UP WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
SWELL IN THE MARINE GRIDS BEGINNING WITH NEXT TUESDAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE HIGH SURF ON WEST-FACING REEFS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO BRING COMBINED SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEIGHTS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SURFACE RIDGE IS DOMINATING KOSRAE
WEATHER AND IS ALSO AFFECTING POHNPEI WEATHER. MODELS INDICATE
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION PASSES NORTH OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI. CONVERGENT EAST
WINDS CONTINUE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION EAST OF MAJURO AS A WEAK
CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TO A SURFACE TROUGH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY NORTH OF MAJURO AND THE
OTHER FORECAST LOCATIONS AS THE TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD. ANOTHER
WEAK CIRCULATION NEAR THE DATE LINE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
INTO AN OPEN TROUGH LATER IN THE WEEKEND BUT COULD BRING A FEW
MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO MAJURO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LARGE STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING NEW ZEALAND WILL GENERATE A SOUTH
SWELL THAT MAY AFFECT MAJURO OVER THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL WAVE MODEL
INDICATES A SMALL SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD COULD REACH THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY. FOR NOW...SWELL STILL APPEARS TO BE
SMALL AND TIDE CYCLES ARE NOT AT HIGHEST LEVEL ABOVE MLLW DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS EVENT CLOSELY BUT FOR NOW
APPEARS SWELL HEIGHT WILL BE BELOW THAT WHICH COULD CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
NEWLY FORMED TD 20W IS LOCATED NEAR 13N137E NORTHWEST OF YAP AND
NORTH OF KOROR AND IS PRESENTLY MOVING WESTWARD AT 8 MPH. TD 20W
WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD NORTHWEST AWAY FROM WESTERN MICRONESIA.
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM TD 20W TO JUST
NORTH AND EAST OF CHUUK. TD 20W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG A
WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND HELP MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTH WINDS AT YAP AND KOROR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST AT YAP THROUGH TONIGHT. AT
KOROR...CONVECTION HAS JUST REACHED THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOW THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY
TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY...BUT WILL STILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
CONDITIONS IN CASE MODELS ARE BEING TOO QUICK PUSHING CONVECTION
OUT OF THE AREA. AT CHUUK ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT AS THE MONSOON TROUGH PULLS OUT OF THE AREA.

WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH JUST NORTH OF YAP AND PALAU...AND TD 20W
SLOWLY DEVELOPING...HAVE FURTHER INCREASED COMBINED SEAS FOR THE
AREA. IF THE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS FASTER THAN MODELS CURRENTLY
SHOW...THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED FURTHER.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/DEVITA







000
FXPQ60 PGUM 310540
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
340 PM CHST FRI OCT 31 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W HAS FORMED IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND IS
CENTERED ABOUT 550 MILES TO THE WEST OF GUAM. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM 20W TO BETWEEN GUAM AND CHUUK.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WHERE THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS OCCURRING. AT PRESENT...THESE AREAS LIE OVER TINIAN AND SAIPAN
AND BETWEEN GUAM AND YAP...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN NOT DEVELOPING A SECONDARY
TROPICAL SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 20W. BASED UPON THIS...FAVORED
FORECAST SCENARIO REVOLVES AROUND THE BEHAVIOR OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
TO THE EAST OF 20W. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS40 MAINTAIN THE STRONGEST
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE OVER THE TINIAN AND SAIPAN ZONES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN MONSOON TROUGH BEGINS TO SLOWLY RETREAT TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF THE
FORECAST ZONES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND HEAD SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING DRIER TRADES TO
INFILTRATE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST ALTIMETRY AND BUOY READINGS ONLY INDICATE 3 TO 5 FT SEAS IN
THE MARINE ZONES. TRIMMED TRADE SWELL A FOOT TO AGREE WITH THE
LATEST READINGS. LATEST ASCAT ANALYSIS INDICATES A LARGE FETCH
GENERATION AREA FORMING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF 20W. WAVE WATCH MODEL
IS PICKING UP ON THIS...SO HAVE BEEFED UP WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
SWELL IN THE MARINE GRIDS BEGINNING WITH NEXT TUESDAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE HIGH SURF ON WEST-FACING REEFS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO BRING COMBINED SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEIGHTS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...WILL BE SENT LATER.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...WILL BE SENT LATER.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY






000
FXPQ60 PGUM 302109
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
709 AM CHST FRI OCT 31 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED SOUTH OF GUAM
THIS MORNING. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
MARIANAS THIS MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS
ACTIVITY ALONG THE TROUGH INCREASES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS THIS MORNING SHOWED A DECREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS
THE MARIANAS. 700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOES SHOW A SMALL DROP IN
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THIS DECREASE SHOULD LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. THIS ALL EQUALS ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH THE
DAY.

A LOT OF MODEL CONFUSION THIS MORNING...GFS AND GFS-ENSEMBLE WANT
TO BRING A CIRCULATION NEAR GUAM ON SUNDAY. THESE MODELS DID SHOW
THIS CIRCULATION YESTERDAY BUT TOOK IT SOUTH OF GUAM INSTEAD OF
OVER IT. ECMWF DOES NOT EVEN SHOW A CIRCULATION NEAR THE
MARIANAS...IT NEVER HAS. NAVGEM WAS SHOWING A DEVELOPING TROPICAL
CYCLONE NEAR THE MARIANAS THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK..NOW
IT DOES NOT. A FEW OTHER MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT PROJECTIONS. WINDS
PROJECTIONS ARE TOTALLY OPPOSITE EACH OTHER DEPENDING ON WHICH
MODEL YOU USE AND EVEN IF YOU USE THE SAME ONE. FOR
INSTANCE...THE GFS HAD WINDS TOTALLY OPPOSITE IN DIRECTION
YESTERDAY AS OPPOSED TO TODAY. SO IT SEEMS MODELS ARE IN FLUX AND
IT IS NOT CERTAIN IF THEY WILL CHANGE AGAIN. SO KEPT WINDS AS IS
FOR NOW UNTIL THERE IS SOME SORT OF CONSENSUS...EITHER WITH IN
THE SAME MODEL IE FROM RUN TO RUN...OR BETWEEN THE VARIOUS
MODELS. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES OF OPINION ON THE WEATHER
FEATURES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...THE MODELS DO AGREE ON A WET NEXT
FEW DAYS. EXPECT ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGH POSSIBLY TUESDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTHEAST SWELL IS PRESENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA. MODEL DATA SHOW
THAT THIS SWELL WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW TODAY UNTIL IT BUILDS
SLIGHTLY AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT SURF OF ONLY 3 TO 5 FEET ON
NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE
THIS WEEKEND. THE WEST AND SOUTH FACING REEFS WILL SEE SURF OF
ONLY 1 TO 3 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WAS LOCATED WEST OF THE MARIANAS. MODELS
DO AGREE ON DEVELOPING THIS INTO A TROPICAL STORM THIS WEEKEND
AND MAYBE A TYPHOON NEXT WEEK. WHILE IT WILL NOT DIRECTLY AFFECT
THE MARIANAS IT COULD PUSH OUT SWELL THAT WILL CHANGE THE SEA AND
SURF FORECAST. SURF ON WEST FACING REEFS MAY GET HIGHER NEXT WEEK
IF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS. MODELS ALSO HINT AT SOME STRONGER WINDS
SOUTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS COULD PUSH SWELL FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE MARIANAS WHICH COULD CHANGE THE SURF
FORECAST ON SOUTH FACING REEFS SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. WW3 AND NAVGEM
WAVE FORECAST DOES SHOW AN INCREASED WEST SWELL BY MID WEEK. SURF
MAY APPROACH HAZARDOUS BY MID-WEEK. DID ADD THE WEST SWELL IN THE
FORECAST BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WANE ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING DEVELOPS NEAR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE TO THE EAST OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AFFECTING THE MARIANAS AND WESTERN MICRONESIA AND
A WEAK CIRCULATION NEAR MAJURO. THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEAK...GRADUALLY DISSIPATING INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE NORTH OF ALL LOCATIONS ALLOWING A FAIRLY
DRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAY. ANOTHER WEAK
CIRCULATION NEAR THE DATE LINE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE INTO
AN OPEN TROUGH LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND COULD BRING A FEW MORE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO MAJURO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LARGE STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING NEW ZEALAND WILL GENERATE A SOUTH
SWELL THAT MAY AFFECT MAJURO OVER THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL WAVE MODEL
INDICATES A SMALL SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD COULD REACH THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY. FOR NOW...SWELL APPEARS
TO BE SMALL AND TIDE CYCLES ARE NOT AT HIGHEST LEVEL ABOVE MLLW
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS EVENT CLOSELY BUT
FOR NOW APPEARS SWELL HEIGHT WILL BE BELOW THAT WHICH COULD CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION.


&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA IS THE DEVELOPING
CIRCULATION NORTH OF YAP NEAR 13N137E...WHICH IS NOW THE SUBJECT
OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT BY THE JTWC. MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF CHUUK. THE CIRCULATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG A WESTWARD TRACK AND MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTH WINDS AT YAP AND KOROR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST AT YAP THROUGH TONIGHT. AT KOROR...A
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
AROUND MIDDAY...BUT THEN A LARGER SWATH OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE AREA FOR TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONDITIONS IN CASE
MODELS ARE BEING TOO QUICK PUSHING CONVECTION OUT OF THE AREA.
CHUUK WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY SUBSIDING
OVER NIGHT AS THE MONSOON TROUGH PULLS OUT OF THE AREA.

WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH JUST NORTH OF YAP AND PALAU AND THE
CIRCULATION SLOWLY DEVELOPING...HAVE INCREASED WINDS AT YAP AND
KOROR FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. IN ADDITION...HAVE ALSO
INCREASED SEAS SLIGHTLY. IF THE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS FASTER THAN
MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW...THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL HAVE TO BE
INCREASED FURTHER.


&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/W. AYDLETT







000
FXPQ60 PGUM 300627 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
427 PM CHST THU OCT 30 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE MICRONESIA DISCUSSIONS

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W IS CENTERED WELL WEST OF GUAM AT ABOUT
13N138E...BUT A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ESE FROM THERE TO SOUTH OF
GUAM...THEN ON TO CHUUK AND BEYOND. SATELLITE SHOWS WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MARIANAS IN MOIST UNSTABLE EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.
MODELS MAINTAIN THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY...AND THE
GFS IN PARTICULAR FORMS A WEAK CIRCULATION OVER THE MARIANAS FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THOUGH SUCH A CIRCULATION IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY IN THE CURRENT MONSOON TROUGH...NOT READY TO BUY IT
UNTIL THE ECMWF SHOWS A SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT AND SOMETHING SHOWS UP
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN ANY CASE...LOOKS WET THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
BOOSTED SEAS JUST A BIT BASED ON BUOYS AND LATEST WW3 GUIDANCE BUT
OTHERWISE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES. SWELL DIRECTION HAS COME AROUND TO
ENE AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL PUT
THE HIGHEST SURF ALONG EAST FACING REEFS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MONSOON TROUGH EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA.
A SMALL CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF MAJURO WILL PROVIDE A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE CONFINED
TO NORTHERN WATERS OF MAJURO AND SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM MAJURO LATER
TONIGHT. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE DATE LINE WILL APPROACH
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS SATURDAY BUT MODELS SHOW MUCH OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY STAYING NORTH OF MAJURO OVER THE WEEKEND. AN INVERTED
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY AT MAJURO AND SHOULD BRING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE ATOLL.
RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY QUIET WEATHER AT KOSRAE THROUGH THE
WEEK. FOR POHNPEI...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION HAS
LIFTED PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS SHOW A
LESS ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS POHNPEI STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING NEW ZEALAND WILL GENERATE A SOUTH
SWELL THAT MAY AFFECT MAJURO OVER THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL WAVE MODEL
INDICATES A SMALL SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD COULD REACH THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS LATE SATURDAY. FOR NOW...SWELL APPEARS TO BE SMALL AND TIDE
CYCLES ARE NOT AT HIGHEST LEVEL ABOVE MLLW DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS EVENT CLOSELY BUT FOR NOW APPEARS SWELL
HEIGHT IS BELOW THAT OF WHICH WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD MONSOONAL FLOW SOUTHEAST OF A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED WEST OF GUAM WHICH WAS RECENTLY
UPGRADED TO A MEDIUM POTENTIAL BY JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF CHUUK. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND MOVE WEST OF CHUUK WATERS FRIDAY. DRIER
WEATHER IS PROGGED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE STATE. THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF
YAP AND KOROR OVER THE COMING DAYS. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THESE LOCATIONS.
CONVERGING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR BOTH YAP AND
KOROR. FAIR WEATHER SHOULD RETURN MONDAY AS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
MOVES FARTHER NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/WILLIAMS







000
FXPQ60 PGUM 300549
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
349 PM CHST THU OCT 30 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W IS CENTERED WELL WEST OF GUAM AT ABOUT
13N138E...BUT A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ESE FROM THERE TO SOUTH OF
GUAM...THEN ON TO CHUUK AND BEYOND. SATELLITE SHOWS WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MARIANAS IN MOIST UNSTABLE EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.
MODELS MAINTAIN THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY...AND THE
GFS IN PARTICULAR FORMS A WEAK CIRCULATION OVER THE MARIANAS FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THOUGH SUCH A CIRCULATION IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY IN THE CURRENT MONSOON TROUGH...NOT READY TO BUY IT
UNTIL THE ECMWF SHOWS A SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT AND SOMETHING SHOWS UP
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN ANY CASE...LOOKS WET THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
BOOSTED SEAS JUST A BIT BASED ON BUOYS AND LATEST WW3 GUIDANCE BUT
OTHERWISE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES. SWELL DIRECTION HAS COME AROUND TO
ENE AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL PUT
THE HIGHEST SURF ALONG EAST FACING REEFS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
WILL BE ADDED WHEN AVAILABLE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
WILL BE ADDED WHEN AVAILABLE.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/WILLIAMS







000
FXPQ60 PGUM 292107
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
707 AM CHST THU OCT 30 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PREVAILED OVER THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING.
THE WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING A SURFACE TROUGH COULD BE FOUND SOUTH OF THE
MARIANAS NEAR 9N. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE TROUGH WILL
GENERATE SCATTERED SOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MARIANAS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS KEEP THE TROUGH SOUTH OF GUAM.
ON SATURDAY GFS AND GFS-ENSEMBLE SHOW A CIRCULATION DEVELOPING ON
THE TROUGH. THESE TWO MODELS SHOW THE CIRCULATION PASSING JUST
SOUTH GUAM ON SUNDAY. ECMWF HOWEVER DOES NOT SHOW THE CIRCULATION
BUT IT DOES SHOW THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE MARIANAS
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH IT ALSO SHOWS THE TROUGH BREAKING UP AND A
RIDGE REPLACING IT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAINLY FOLLOWED THE GFS AND
GFS ENSEMBLE FOR RAINFALL. THE TROUGH AND THE CIRCULATION WILL
KEEP SHOWERS SCATTERED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THE PREDOMINANT COVERAGE
WILL BE SCATTERED. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY MONDAY.
GFS AND GFS-ENSEMBLE SHOWS A RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE MARIANAS
NEXT WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD EQUAL MORE DRYING.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTHEAST SWELL IS PRESENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA. MODEL DATA SHOW
THAT THIS SWELL WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH THE WEEK UNTIL
IT BUILDS SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT SURF OF ONLY 3 TO 5 FEET
ON NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT INCREASE THIS WEEKEND. THE WEST AND SOUTH FACING REEFS
WILL SEE SURF OF ONLY 1 TO 3 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS MICRONESIA WITH WEAK
CIRCULATIONS FOUND ALONG IT NEAR POHNPEI AND MAJURO. NEITHER
CIRCULATION IS FAVORED FOR DEVELOPMENT IN CURRENT MODEL RUNS AND
ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE TROUGH. CONVECTION REMAINS
SOMEWHAT SPARSE ALONG THE AREA WITH JUST A FEW CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS SEEN NEAR POHNPEI AND MAJURO. POHNPEI WILL SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING IN THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
CONVECTION LIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO PROLONG A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT MAJURO
THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT QUIETER
IN THE LONG TERM.

A LARGE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS BY SOUTH OF NEW ZEALAND
LATE IN THE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. GLOBAL WAVE MODEL INDICATES A
SMALL SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD COULD REACH UP INTO THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TO SEE HOW THE STORM DEVELOPS AND WHETHER
OTHER MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL WAVE MODEL.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LARGELY REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF YAP
AND KOROR NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM MINDANAO TO
THE CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF GUAM AND THEN TOWARD CHUUK. FARTHER
EAST... NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
JUST WEST OF CHUUK. MODELS MAINTAIN WET CONDITIONS AT CHUUK
TODAY...BUT WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CONVECTION BEING
DISPLACED JUST TO WEST DECIDED TO SHOW A DRIER TREND FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...WETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW BACK IN BY
TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR NOW THE LONG TERM FORECAST
AT CHUUK BECOMES DRIER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE EAST IN CASE IT
DEVELOPS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED
FOR THE YAP AND PALAU FORECASTS AS THE PATTER REMAINS INFLUENCED
BY THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE NORTH. FOR NOW... MODELS SHOW LITTLE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CIRCULATION NORTH OF THE TWO LOCATIONS SO
MONSOON WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY STRONG. AS THE
TROUGH LIFTS FARTHER NORTHWARD...KOROR COULD SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS AT THE END OF THIS WEEK WHILE YAP MAY SEE A SIMILAR
INCREASE IN SHOWERS LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/W. AYDLETT







000
FXPQ60 PGUM 290643
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
443 PM CHST WED OCT 29 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
JTWC LOW INVEST AREA 96W IS CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF GUAM NEAR
11N144E. A SECONDARY CIRCULATION IS CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
NEAR 11N147E. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM 96W
TO ANOTHER CIRCULATION CENTERED BETWEEN CHUUK AND POHNPEI.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 96W HAS BEEN AFFECTING ALL OF THE
FORECAST ZONES DURING THE COURSE OF THE SHIFT. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN STRATIFYING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SIGNATURE OF 96W IN SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
IMPROVING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. BASED UPON THIS HAVE
INCREASED WINDS FOR DAYS 2 AND 3 USING THE LATEST GFS40 RUN. BOTH
GFS AND NAVGEM DEVELOP THE CIRCULATION CURRENTLY CENTERED BETWEEN
CHUUK AND POHNPEI AS IT APPROACHES TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
ZONES OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN GENERALLY MOVE IT SLOWLY NORTHWEST.
ECMWF JUST KEEPS THE MONSOON TROUGH ON THE EAST SIDE OF 96W OVER
THE FORECAST ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND FORECASTS BETWEEN
THE MODELS DIVERGE ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE SOUTHEAST TO
EAST WIND GRIDS IN PLACE FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 UNTIL MODEL
SOLUTIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS COME INTO AGREEMENT ON WHICH
FORECAST SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. IN ANY CASE...VERY WET PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE UNDER EITHER FORECAST SCENARIO...SO HAVE
EXTENDED SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE SWELL GRIDS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE LATEST ALTIMETRY AND
BUOY READINGS. STILL EXPECT MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TO CONTINUE
UNTIL THE WEEKEND...THEN FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. IF
CIRCULATION DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MARIANAS OVER THE
WEEKEND...SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED TO BOTH THE WIND
AND MARINE GRIDS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXISTS NEAR AND WEST OF KOSRAE WHILE
QUIETER WEATHER IS SEEN EAST OF KOSRAE. A BROAD CIRCULATION IS
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH CENTERED NEAR POHNPEI. THIS EAST-WEST
TROUGH STRETCHES FROM NEAR MINDANAO TO BEYOND THE DATE LINE. VIS
SATELLITE SHOWS THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AT POHNPEI TONIGHT HEADING
WEST AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. A WEAK
MONSOON TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAINLY AT POHNPEI AND MAJURO. MODELS PROG
ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH TO TAKE SHAPE NEAR THE MARSHALLS LATER IN
THE WEEKEND THAT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THOSE
ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A BROAD CIRCULATION WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS CENTERED SOUTH
OF GUAM NEAR 13N145E AND IT IS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IN THE
REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ADDED TO KOROR AND YAP TONIGHT
WITH WEATHER ALONG THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS OF
THOSE LOCATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE FILLED IN AT CHUUK AS
EXPECTED AND WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. MODELS SLOWLY DEVELOP THE
DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF GUAM AS IT HEADS WEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
KEEP WEATHER PRIMARILY NORTH OF YAP AND KOROR. A SECOND CIRCULATION
CENTERED EAST OF CHUUK WILL HEAD WEST-NORTHWEST AND SLOWLY DEVELOP
AS WELL. MODELS KEEP MUCH OF THIS WEATHER TO THE NORTH OF YAP AND
KOROR TOO. FOR CHUUK...WET CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN. SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF
BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/M. AYDLETT








000
FXPQ60 PGUM 290532
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
332 PM CHST WED OCT 29 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
JTWC LOW INVEST AREA 96W IS CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF GUAM NEAR
11N144E. A SECONDARY CIRCULATION IS CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
NEAR 11N147E. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM 96W
TO ANOTHER CIRCULATION CENTERED BETWEEN CHUUK AND POHNPEI.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 96W HAS BEEN AFFECTING ALL OF THE
FORECAST ZONES DURING THE COURSE OF THE SHIFT. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN STRATIFYING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SIGNATURE OF 96W IN SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
IMPROVING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. BASED UPON THIS HAVE
INCREASED WINDS FOR DAYS 2 AND 3 USING THE LATEST GFS40 RUN. BOTH
GFS AND NAVGEM DEVELOP THE CIRCULATION CURRENTLY CENTERED BETWEEN
CHUUK AND POHNPEI AS IT APPROACHES TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
ZONES OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN GENERALLY MOVE IT SLOWLY NORTHWEST.
ECMWF JUST KEEPS THE MONSOON TROUGH ON THE EAST SIDE OF 96W OVER
THE FORECAST ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND FORECASTS BETWEEN
THE MODELS DIVERGE ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE SOUTHEAST TO
EAST WIND GRIDS IN PLACE FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 UNTIL MODEL
SOLUTIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS COME INTO AGREEMENT ON WHICH
FORECAST SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. IN ANY CASE...VERY WET PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE UNDER EITHER FORECAST SCENARIO...SO HAVE
EXTENDED SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE SWELL GRIDS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE LATEST ALTIMETRY AND
BUOY READINGS. STILL EXPECT MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TO CONTINUE
UNTIL THE WEEKEND...THEN FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. IF
CIRCULATION DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MARIANAS OVER THE
WEEKEND...SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED TO BOTH THE WIND
AND MARINE GRIDS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...WILL BE ADDED LATER.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...WILL BE ADDED LATER.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY






000
FXPQ60 PGUM 282205 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
805 AM CHST WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING WESTWARD OVER ALL ISLAND LOCATIONS FASTER
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...SO HAVE UPDATED THE MORNING FORECAST
PACKAGE TO INCREASE POPS FOR ALL FORECAST ZONES TO SCATTERED.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...AM FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CHST WED OCT 29 2014/

MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING. A
FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP ON AND OFF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS PASSING ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING.
WHILE IT BROUGHT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WAS DWINDLING IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY 3 AM
YOU COULD SEE A FEW PATCHES OF CBS DEVELOPING AGAIN AND BY 430 AN
AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER THE ROTA CHANNEL. KEPT
ISOLATED SHOWERS UNTIL NOON OVER THE ISLANDS BUT KEPT SCATTERED
OVER THE WATERS. SCATTERED SHOULD RETURN TO THE WHOLE AREA BY NOON
TIME.

THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE AND PROLONG THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

WHILE THE PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IS THE HIGHEST CHANCE THERE
STILL WILL BE ON AND OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

MARINE...
A NORTHEAST SWELL IS PRESENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA. MODEL
DATA SHOW THAT THIS SWELL WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH
THE WEEK UNTIL IT BUILDS SLIGHTLY AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT SURF OF ONLY 4 TO 6 FEET THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA FROM THROUGH A
WEAK CIRCULATION THAT HAS DEVELOPED NEAR POHNPEI. THE PROXIMITY OF
THIS CIRCULATION IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST TO THE EAST OF
POHNPEI THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE POHNPEI WATERS A LITTLE LATER THIS
MORNING. THE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD...TO THE NORTH OF KOSRAE AND
MAJURO. MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF KOSRAE AND MAJURO. WEAK INSTABILITY JUST TO THE NORTH OF MAJURO
WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE MARSHALLS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE UNSTABLE PATTERN WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO MAJURO TO
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WORDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ONCE THE CIRCULATION NEAR POHNPEI DRIFTS FURTHER WEST...DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE FROM KOSRAE. BOTH LOCATIONS
WILL SEE A DRYING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS WESTERN MICRONESIA TO THE NORTH OF ALL
THREE FORECAST POINTS THROUGH A WEAK CIRCULATION FOUND BETWEEN GUAM
AND CHUUK...THEN CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO EASTERN MICRONESIA.
SATELLITE DATA SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
FOUND TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH AND NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND
TO THE SOUTH...SOUTH OF CHUUK. AS THE CIRCULATION DRIFTS WESTWARD...
THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...THAT IS
CURRENTLY WELL EAST OF CHUUK...ALONG WITH IT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS OVER CHUUK TODAY BEING REPLACED WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE BY
TONIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING TO CHUUK BY THURSDAY
MORNING. A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER YAP AND KOROR WITH
MODELS INDICATING THAT THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/M. AYDLETT







000
FXPQ60 PGUM 282051
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
651 AM CHST WED OCT 29 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING. A
FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP ON AND OFF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS PASSING ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING.
WHILE IT BROUGHT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WAS DWINDLING IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY 3 AM
YOU COULD SEE A FEW PATCHES OF CBS DEVELOPING AGAIN AND BY 430 AN
AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER THE ROTA CHANNEL. KEPT
ISOLATED SHOWERS UNTIL NOON OVER THE ISLANDS BUT KEPT SCATTERED
OVER THE WATERS. SCATTERED SHOULD RETURN TO THE WHOLE AREA BY NOON
TIME.

THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE AND PROLONG THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

WHILE THE PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IS THE HIGHEST CHANCE THERE
STILL WILL BE ON AND OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTHEAST SWELL IS PRESENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA. MODEL
DATA SHOW THAT THIS SWELL WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH
THE WEEK UNTIL IT BUILDS SLIGHTLY AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT SURF OF ONLY 4 TO 6 FEET THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA FROM THROUGH A
WEAK CIRCULATION THAT HAS DEVELOPED NEAR POHNPEI. THE PROXIMITY OF
THIS CIRCULATION IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST TO THE EAST OF
POHNPEI THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE POHNPEI WATERS A LITTLE LATER THIS
MORNING. THE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD...TO THE NORTH OF KOSRAE AND
MAJURO. MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF KOSRAE AND MAJURO. WEAK INSTABILITY JUST TO THE NORTH OF MAJURO
WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE MARSHALLS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE UNSTABLE PATTERN WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO MAJURO TO
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WORDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ONCE THE CIRCULATION NEAR POHNPEI DRIFTS FURTHER WEST...DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE FROM KOSRAE. BOTH LOCATIONS
WILL SEE A DRYING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS WESTERN MICRONESIA TO THE NORTH OF ALL
THREE FORECAST POINTS THROUGH A WEAK CIRCULATION FOUND BETWEEN GUAM
AND CHUUK...THEN CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO EASTERN MICRONESIA.
SATELLITE DATA SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
FOUND TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH AND NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND
TO THE SOUTH...SOUTH OF CHUUK. AS THE CIRCULATION DRIFTS WESTWARD...
THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...THAT IS
CURRENTLY WELL EAST OF CHUUK...ALONG WITH IT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS OVER CHUUK TODAY BEING REPLACED WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE BY
TONIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING TO CHUUK BY THURSDAY
MORNING. A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER YAP AND KOROR WITH
MODELS INDICATING THAT THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/KLEESCHULTE







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