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000
FXHW60 PHFO 220630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. A RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL PRODUCE SOUTHEAST
FLOW OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH TOMORROW. A HIGH
BUILDING FAR NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING MODERATE TRADE WINDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT THE SOUTHEAST
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 800 PM HST...TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 480 MILES WEST
OF LIHUE AND ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS. ANA
IS MOVING NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
AND TOWARD THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT.

INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD MOTIONS INDICATIVE OF EAST SOUTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...BUT THE BIG ISLAND IS
PARTLY BLOCKING THE FLOW...SO WINDS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT
OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. LEEWARD CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE
ISLANDS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZES INDUCED FROM TODAY/S HEATING OF THE
LAND...WHICH SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS LAND
BREEZES SET IN. RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE AROUND THE
STATE...THOUGH WINDWARD FOCUSED SHOWERS HAVE PICKED UP SLIGHTLY
ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU THIS EVENING.

AN EAST TO WEST RIDGE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND AND THE
CIRCULATION AROUND TROPICAL STORM ANA WILL COMBINE TO MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MAIN ISLANDS
THROUGH TOMORROW. THE EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PUSH SOME SHOWERS
ASHORE OVER WINDWARD AREAS TONIGHT. WITH THE EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW
PARTLY BLOCKED BY THE BIG ISLAND...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS FOR SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND BRING SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS. THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY BE MORE ACTIVE TOMORROW THAN
TODAY AS MOISTURE FROM A REMNANT FRONT CLOUD BAND SLOWLY EDGES
TOWARDS THE STATE. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AROUND THE
SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN STRONGER NEAR THE BIG ISLAND. THE HAMAKUA COAST AND
SOUTH POINT WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO A BIT STRONGER WINDS DUE TO THE
ORIENTATION OF TERRAIN AND WIND FLOW.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SURFACE HIGH FAR
NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA BUILDING SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...STRENGTHENING
THE TRADE WINDS TO MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES. THE TRADES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY FOCUSING SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AREAS WITH
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER OVER LEEWARD AREAS.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE WINDS OVER THE MAIN
ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST. THAT WIND
FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING SCATTERED NIGHTTIME SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD
AREAS AND SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOONS.


&&

.AVIATION...
ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NE OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE PERIODS
OF MVFR IN PASSING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS. LIGHT SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON INTERIOR CLOUD BUILD UPS.


&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTH SWELL WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SMALL SWELL FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST ARRIVES THURSDAY AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT SURF FROM THESE SWELLS WILL
REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY LEVELS AT NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES.
ONLY SMALL SURF IS EXPECTED AT SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
/SCA/ LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS ACCELERATING
AROUND THE BIG ISLAND UNDER THE CURRENT SOUTHEAST FLOW COULD COME
CLOSE TO SCA CONDITIONS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 220142
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. A RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL PRODUCE SOUTHEAST
FLOW OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH TOMORROW. A HIGH
BUILDING FAR NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING MODERATE TRADE WINDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT THE SOUTHEAST
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 200 PM HST...TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST
OF KAUAI AND ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS. ANA
IS MOVING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS AND TOWARD THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT.

SATELLITE CLOUD MOTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...BUT THE BIG ISLAND IS PARTLY
BLOCKING THE FLOW...SO WINDS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE
SMALLER ISLANDS...WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES. SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS
SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND VERY FEW SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE ONE TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUD DID POP UP OVER
THE SLOPES OF MAUNA LOA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
WAS RECORDED THROUGH 200 PM.

AN EAST TO WEST RIDGE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND AND THE
CIRCULATION AROUND TROPICAL STORM ANA WILL COMBINE TO MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MAIN ISLANDS
THROUGH TOMORROW. THE EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PUSH SOME SHOWERS
ASHORE OVER WINDWARD AREAS OVERNIGHT. WITH THE EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW
PARTLY BLOCKED BY THE BIG ISLAND...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS FOR SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND BRING SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS. THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY BE MORE ACTIVE TOMORROW THAN TODAY
SINCE THE REMNANT OF AN OLD FRONTAL CLOUD BAND WILL PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AROUND THE SMALLER ISLANDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN STRONGER
NEAR THE BIG ISLAND. ALSO...THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
ACCELERATE AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY STRENGTH THERE.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SURFACE HIGH FAR
NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA BUILDING SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL STRENGTHEN...AND
MODERATE TO FRESH EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL BUILD BACK OVER
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY THURSDAY. THE TRADES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY FOCUSING SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AREAS WITH MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER OVER LEEWARD AREAS.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE WINDS OVER THE MAIN
ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST. THAT WIND
FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING SCATTERED NIGHTTIME SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD
AREAS AND SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH PATCHY
MVFR CEILINGS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS THIS EVENING AND OVER
WINDWARD AREAS LATER TONIGHT. NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTH SWELL WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NEW
SMALL SWELLS FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST AND NORTH NORTHWEST WILL
ARRIVE THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT SURF FROM THESE
SWELLS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY LEVEL. ONLY SMALL SURF IS
EXPECTED ALONG EAST AND SOUTH FACING SHORES.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT LEAST...AND PROBABLY LONGER...BUT
WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
DONALDSON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 211944
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
945 AM HST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. A RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL PRODUCE SOUTHEAST
FLOW OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A HIGH
BUILDING FAR NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING MODERATE TRADE WINDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT THE SOUTHEAST
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 800 AM HST...TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST
OF KAUAI AND ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS. ANA
CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS AND TOWARD THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT.

SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND VERY FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE CLOUD
MOTIONS SHOW EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS...BUT THE BIG
ISLAND IS PARTLY BLOCKING THE FLOW...SO WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS...WITH LOCAL LAND BREEZES
OVERNIGHT.

AN EAST TO WEST RIDGE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND AND THE
CIRCULATION AROUND TROPICAL STORM ANA WILL COMBINE TO MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MAIN ISLANDS
THROUGH TOMORROW. WITH THE EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW PARTLY BLOCKED BY
THE BIG ISLAND...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS
FOR SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS AND BRING
SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS. THE EAST
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PUSH SOME SHOWERS ASHORE OVER WINDWARD AREAS
DURING THE NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNINGS. SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE RATHER DRY AND STABLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING SO RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
AS THE REMNANT OF A FRONTAL CLOUD BAND SPREADS OVER THE ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AROUND THE SMALLER ISLANDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN STRONGER
NEAR THE BIG ISLAND. ALSO...THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
ACCELERATE AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY STRENGTH THERE.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SURFACE HIGH FAR
NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA BUILDING SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL STRENGTHEN...AND
MODERATE TO FRESH EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL BUILD BACK OVER
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY THURSDAY. THE TRADES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY FOCUSING SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AREAS WITH MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER OVER LEEWARD AREAS.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE WINDS OVER THE MAIN
ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST. THAT WIND
FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING SCATTERED NIGHTTIME SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD
AREAS AND SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS TODAY WITH PATCHY MVFR
CEILINGS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER
WINDWARD AREAS TONIGHT. NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTH SWELL WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NEW
SMALL SWELLS FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST AND NORTH NORTHWEST WILL
ARRIVE THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT SURF FROM THESE
SWELLS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY LEVEL. ONLY SMALL SURF IS
EXPECTED ALONG EAST AND SOUTH FACING SHORES.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT LEAST...AND PROBABLY LONGER...BUT
WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
DONALDSON








000
FXHW60 PHFO 211720 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
720 AM HST TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED SYNOPSIS

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST...FAR FROM THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ISLANDS. A RIDGE FAR
NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A HIGH BUILDING FAR
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING MODERATE TRADE WINDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT THE SOUTHEAST AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND BECOME LIGHTER DUE TO THE SHADOWING EFFECT OF THE
ISLANDS. THIS ALLOWED NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP...AS
INDICATED AT KAHULUI AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS. RATHER MODERATE EASTERLY
WINDS ARE STILL OVER KAUAI AT THIS TIME...THOUGH AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...EXPECT THE SYNOPTIC SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO SPREAD.
EARLY MORNING LIHUE AND HILO SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO REVEAL A TRADE
WIND WEATHER TYPE PROFILE...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING TO
OVER 5 THOUSAND FEET. THE SOUNDINGS INDICATED A LITTLE
DRIER...THOUGH STILL UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY.
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOWED A LITTLE INCREASE OF LOW
CLOUDS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY EARLY THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...THE
ISLANDS WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THOUGH REST OF THE
MORNING. AT 2 AM HST...TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 400
MILES WEST OF LIHUE...AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST AT 9 MPH. ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED THE SYSTEM ARE STILL AFFECTING
THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS.
THE CLEARING OF THE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE STATE WILL BE SLOW THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THIS RIDGE WILL STAY NEAR THE ISLANDS
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A DISSIPATING FRONT REMAINS JUST
NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE FROM
THIS DISSIPATING FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTH SLOWLY AND EVENTUALLY REACH
THE STATE BY LATER TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...THOUGH THERE IS NO PROMINENT UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE PROVIDING MORE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE
ISLANDS. LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE STATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL ALLOW LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP...AND THE CONVERGING DAY
TIME SEA BREEZES OVER THE ISLANDS MAY RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND LEE AREAS.

A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO FAR
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL BE PASSING THE ISLANDS AT TIMES.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST TRADE WINDS TO RETURN THE
STATE WITH PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD
AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF OAHU AND KAUAI WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN TODAY. OTHERWISE...12Z SOUNDINGS FROM PHLI AND PHTO SHOW
THE RETURN OF A LOW LEVEL INVERSION BETWEEN 5 AND 6 KFT. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS WILL VEER MORE SE TODAY AND INTERIOR AREAS MAY SEE
AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILD UPS. TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINATELY VFR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A SAGGING DISSIPATING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ENHANCE MOISTURE TO THE STATE STARTING TONIGHT...INTRODUCING
THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST READINGS FROM THE NEAR-SHORE BUOY NORTH OF OAHU STILL SHOW
THE DOWNWARD TREND OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL. BELIEVE SURF FOR
THE NORTH FACING SHORES HAS DECREASED TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL EARLY
THIS MORNING. THEREFORE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A NEW SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVEL SURF.

NO SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL...EVEN FOR THE USUAL WINDIER
COASTAL WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...DONALDSON
AVIATION...EATON
DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI








000
FXHW60 PHFO 211359
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
ISLANDS. A BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONT NORTHEAST
OF THE STATE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGER AND MORE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN
LATER THIS WEEK AS A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO FAR NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND BECOME LIGHTER DUE TO THE SHADOWING EFFECT OF THE
ISLANDS. THIS ALLOWED NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP...AS
INDICATED AT KAHULUI AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS. RATHER MODERATE EASTERLY
WINDS ARE STILL OVER KAUAI AT THIS TIME...THOUGH AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...EXPECT THE SYNOPTIC SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO SPREAD.
EARLY MORNING LIHUE AND HILO SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO REVEAL A TRADE
WIND WEATHER TYPE PROFILE...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING TO
OVER 5 THOUSAND FEET. THE SOUNDINGS INDICATED A LITTLE
DRIER...THOUGH STILL UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY.
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOWED A LITTLE INCREASE OF LOW
CLOUDS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY EARLY THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...THE
ISLANDS WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THOUGH REST OF THE
MORNING. AT 2 AM HST...TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 400
MILES WEST OF LIHUE...AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST AT 9 MPH. ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED THE SYSTEM ARE STILL AFFECTING
THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS.
THE CLEARING OF THE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE STATE WILL BE SLOW THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THIS RIDGE WILL STAY NEAR THE ISLANDS
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A DISSIPATING FRONT REMAINS JUST
NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE FROM
THIS DISSIPATING FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTH SLOWLY AND EVENTUALLY REACH
THE STATE BY LATER TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...THOUGH THERE IS NO PROMINENT UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE PROVIDING MORE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE
ISLANDS. LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE STATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL ALLOW LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP...AND THE CONVERGING DAY
TIME SEA BREEZES OVER THE ISLANDS MAY RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND LEE AREAS.

A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO FAR
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL BE PASSING THE ISLANDS AT TIMES.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST TRADE WINDS TO RETURN THE
STATE WITH PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD
AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF OAHU AND KAUAI WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN TODAY. OTHERWISE...12Z SOUNDINGS FROM PHLI AND PHTO SHOW
THE RETURN OF A LOW LEVEL INVERSION BETWEEN 5 AND 6 KFT. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS WILL VEER MORE SE TODAY AND INTERIOR AREAS MAY SEE
AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILD UPS. TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINATELY VFR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A SAGGING DISSIPATING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ENHANCE MOISTURE TO THE STATE STARTING TONIGHT...INTRODUCING
THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST READINGS FROM THE NEAR-SHORE BUOY NORTH OF OAHU STILL SHOW
THE DOWNWARD TREND OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL. BELIEVE SURF FOR
THE NORTH FACING SHORES HAS DECREASED TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL EARLY
THIS MORNING. THEREFORE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A NEW SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVEL SURF.

NO SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL...EVEN FOR THE USUAL WINDIER
COASTAL WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...EATON
DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI






000
FXHW60 PHFO 211359
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
ISLANDS. A BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONT NORTHEAST
OF THE STATE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGER AND MORE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN
LATER THIS WEEK AS A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO FAR NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND BECOME LIGHTER DUE TO THE SHADOWING EFFECT OF THE
ISLANDS. THIS ALLOWED NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP...AS
INDICATED AT KAHULUI AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS. RATHER MODERATE EASTERLY
WINDS ARE STILL OVER KAUAI AT THIS TIME...THOUGH AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...EXPECT THE SYNOPTIC SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO SPREAD.
EARLY MORNING LIHUE AND HILO SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO REVEAL A TRADE
WIND WEATHER TYPE PROFILE...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING TO
OVER 5 THOUSAND FEET. THE SOUNDINGS INDICATED A LITTLE
DRIER...THOUGH STILL UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY.
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOWED A LITTLE INCREASE OF LOW
CLOUDS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY EARLY THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...THE
ISLANDS WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THOUGH REST OF THE
MORNING. AT 2 AM HST...TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 400
MILES WEST OF LIHUE...AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST AT 9 MPH. ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED THE SYSTEM ARE STILL AFFECTING
THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS.
THE CLEARING OF THE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE STATE WILL BE SLOW THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THIS RIDGE WILL STAY NEAR THE ISLANDS
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A DISSIPATING FRONT REMAINS JUST
NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE FROM
THIS DISSIPATING FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTH SLOWLY AND EVENTUALLY REACH
THE STATE BY LATER TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...THOUGH THERE IS NO PROMINENT UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE PROVIDING MORE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE
ISLANDS. LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE STATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL ALLOW LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP...AND THE CONVERGING DAY
TIME SEA BREEZES OVER THE ISLANDS MAY RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND LEE AREAS.

A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO FAR
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL BE PASSING THE ISLANDS AT TIMES.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST TRADE WINDS TO RETURN THE
STATE WITH PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD
AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF OAHU AND KAUAI WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN TODAY. OTHERWISE...12Z SOUNDINGS FROM PHLI AND PHTO SHOW
THE RETURN OF A LOW LEVEL INVERSION BETWEEN 5 AND 6 KFT. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS WILL VEER MORE SE TODAY AND INTERIOR AREAS MAY SEE
AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILD UPS. TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINATELY VFR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A SAGGING DISSIPATING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ENHANCE MOISTURE TO THE STATE STARTING TONIGHT...INTRODUCING
THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST READINGS FROM THE NEAR-SHORE BUOY NORTH OF OAHU STILL SHOW
THE DOWNWARD TREND OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL. BELIEVE SURF FOR
THE NORTH FACING SHORES HAS DECREASED TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL EARLY
THIS MORNING. THEREFORE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A NEW SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVEL SURF.

NO SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL...EVEN FOR THE USUAL WINDIER
COASTAL WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...EATON
DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI







000
FXHW60 PHFO 210630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO EXIT
EAST OF THE STATE...THICK HIGH CLOUDS OVER KAUAI AND OAHU WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND TURN MORE SOUTHEAST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
A BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONT NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 5 PM HST...TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED 335 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LIHUE...AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
9 MPH. MUCH OF THE HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ANA HAS SHIFTED TO THE
EDGE OF THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS AT TIME...WHILE THICK HIGH CLOUDS
WITH THE SYSTEM ARE STILL COVERING KAUAI COUNTY AS WELL OAHU. EXPECT
THE HEAVY RAIN TO MOVE FURTHER WEST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE ISLANDS THIS
EVENING...AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR NORTH OF THE
STATE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS DECREASED QUITE A BIT IN THE ISLAND
VICINITY AS WELL...AS BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOWED NOT MUCH
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THEREFORE
THE CURRENT MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH REST OF THE EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS...WITH HIGH CLOUDS COVERING
KAUAI COUNTY AND OAHU.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
STATE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THAT WILL LEAD TO THE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHTER AND TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A DISSIPATING FRONT
JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THIS EVENING. MOISTURE FROM THIS
DISSIPATING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY REACH
THE STATE BY LATE TUESDAY. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...THOUGH THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
TO BRING MORE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE ISLANDS AS THE
MOISTURE SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE. LIGHT WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS WILL
ALLOW LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP...AND CONVERGING DAY TIME SEA
BREEZES OVER THE ISLANDS MAY BRING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND LEE AREAS OF THE ISLANDS.

A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO FAR NORTH OF
THE STATE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE AREAS OF
MOISTURE WILL BE PASSING THE ISLANDS AT TIMES. THEREFORE...EXPECT
MORE ROBUST TRADE WINDS TO RETURN THE STATE WITH PERIODS OF PASSING
SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONLY THICK HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER KAUAI FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN AND MOVE AWAY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL STATEWIDE...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER MORE SE TOMORROW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZES AND INTERIOR
CLOUD BUILD-UPS IS INTRODUCED TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY THERE
ARE NO AIRMETS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST READINGS FROM THE NEAR-SHORE BUOY NORTH OF OAHU CONTINUE TO
LOWER THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE THE DECLINE OF LARGE NORTH-NORTHWEST
SWELL IS ON TRACK. AT THIS RATE...SURF FOR NORTH FACING SHORES WILL
BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A NEW SMALL
NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL SURF.

NO SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS WINDS REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY.
EXPECT THE STRONGER MORE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO SPREAD TO THE
ISLANDS BY THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY BRING IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
FOR THE USUAL WINDIER COASTAL WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU
KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

AVIATION...EATON
DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI







000
FXHW60 PHFO 210630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO EXIT
EAST OF THE STATE...THICK HIGH CLOUDS OVER KAUAI AND OAHU WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND TURN MORE SOUTHEAST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
A BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONT NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 5 PM HST...TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED 335 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LIHUE...AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
9 MPH. MUCH OF THE HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ANA HAS SHIFTED TO THE
EDGE OF THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS AT TIME...WHILE THICK HIGH CLOUDS
WITH THE SYSTEM ARE STILL COVERING KAUAI COUNTY AS WELL OAHU. EXPECT
THE HEAVY RAIN TO MOVE FURTHER WEST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE ISLANDS THIS
EVENING...AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR NORTH OF THE
STATE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS DECREASED QUITE A BIT IN THE ISLAND
VICINITY AS WELL...AS BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOWED NOT MUCH
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THEREFORE
THE CURRENT MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH REST OF THE EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS...WITH HIGH CLOUDS COVERING
KAUAI COUNTY AND OAHU.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
STATE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THAT WILL LEAD TO THE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHTER AND TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A DISSIPATING FRONT
JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THIS EVENING. MOISTURE FROM THIS
DISSIPATING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY REACH
THE STATE BY LATE TUESDAY. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...THOUGH THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
TO BRING MORE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE ISLANDS AS THE
MOISTURE SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE. LIGHT WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS WILL
ALLOW LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP...AND CONVERGING DAY TIME SEA
BREEZES OVER THE ISLANDS MAY BRING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND LEE AREAS OF THE ISLANDS.

A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO FAR NORTH OF
THE STATE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE AREAS OF
MOISTURE WILL BE PASSING THE ISLANDS AT TIMES. THEREFORE...EXPECT
MORE ROBUST TRADE WINDS TO RETURN THE STATE WITH PERIODS OF PASSING
SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONLY THICK HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER KAUAI FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN AND MOVE AWAY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL STATEWIDE...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER MORE SE TOMORROW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZES AND INTERIOR
CLOUD BUILD-UPS IS INTRODUCED TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY THERE
ARE NO AIRMETS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST READINGS FROM THE NEAR-SHORE BUOY NORTH OF OAHU CONTINUE TO
LOWER THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE THE DECLINE OF LARGE NORTH-NORTHWEST
SWELL IS ON TRACK. AT THIS RATE...SURF FOR NORTH FACING SHORES WILL
BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A NEW SMALL
NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL SURF.

NO SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS WINDS REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY.
EXPECT THE STRONGER MORE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO SPREAD TO THE
ISLANDS BY THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY BRING IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
FOR THE USUAL WINDIER COASTAL WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU
KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

AVIATION...EATON
DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI






000
FXHW60 PHFO 210203
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS TAPERED OFF AS TROPICAL STORM ANA MOVES FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE STATE...LEAVING BEHIND LIGHTER SHOWERS NEAR KAUAI AND
THICK HIGH CLOUDS AS FAR AS OAHU. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL FOCUS
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOME
LIGHTER FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A BAND OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONT NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL ENHANCE
RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 2 PM HST...TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED 320 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LIHUE...AND IS MOVING TO THE WEST AT 7 MPH.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED WEST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH STEADY LIGHT TO WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE SHOWERS NEAR
KAUAI AND NIIHAU. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE SHOWERS ARE FOLLOWING A
MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN...WITH LIGHT RAIN ACROSS WINDWARD
AND MAUKA SECTIONS. A THICK LAYER OF MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXTENDS FROM ANA ACROSS MUCH OF KAUAI AND OAHU...AND WILL KEEP SKIES
CLOUDY ACROSS THESE ISLANDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE STATE...WITH A TROUGH FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. ANA IS LOCATED SOUTH
OF THE HIGH...AND CONTINUES MOVING TO THE WEST AWAY FROM THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR
NORTH OF THE STATE...WITH A DISSIPATING FRONT JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM HILO SHOWS A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
PROFILE...WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 6KFT AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF 1.4 INCHES. THE 00Z LIHUE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS MORE DRYING
AND SUBSIDENCE...WITH A STRENGTHENING INVERSION AROUND 4-5KFT AND A
PW VALUE DOWN TO 1.7 INCHES. EARLY AFTERNOON MIMIC TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IS HIGHER THAN OBSERVED BY THE SOUNDINGS
AND GPS-MET SENSORS...BUT DOES SHOW THE QUALITATIVE DRYING TREND
FROM THE EAST. MIMIC ALSO SHOWS A BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE ABOUT
100-150 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING
FRONT...WHICH WILL COME INTO PLAY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

SO FAR THE COMBINATION OF STABILIZING AIRMASS...DECREASING
MOISTURE...AND THICK CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT INSOLATION HAS KEPT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR KAUAI TO A MINIMUM THROUGH THE DAY. RECENT
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE BANDS MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTH...AND HAVE INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES A BIG FOR KAUAI COUNTY.
HEAVY RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED...WITH MOST OF THESE RETURNS FROM THE
ELEVATED CLOUD DECK THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE AREA.

ANA WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD...BUT WILL LEAVE THE MIDDLE AND
HIGH LEVEL LAYERED CLOUDS ACROSS PART OF THE STATE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW TONIGHT WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A PORTION OF A DISSIPATING FRONT
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THE 18Z GFS IS
MORE VIGOROUS WITH CONVECTION ALONG THIS OLD BOUNDARY...AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZING AGAIN. WITHOUT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS SEEMS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE...AND THE
SATURATED/UNSTABLE PROFILES MAY BE A RESULT OF CONVECTION IN THE
MODEL RATHER THAN AN INDICATOR OF IT. HOWEVER...THIS DOES BEAR
WATCHING AS SOME COLDER TOPS HAVE FLARED UP ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES MAINLY FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. IN
ADDITION...THE PERIODS OF LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW LOCALIZED SEA
BREEZES TO FORM ACROSS SHELTERED LEEWARD AREAS...AND MAY CONTRIBUTE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONLY THICK HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM ANA AFFECTING
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY KAUAI. SMALLER AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS
OVER OAHU PERSIST AND MAY LINGER AND EVEN MOVE TO THE OTHER ISLANDS
TONIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY THERE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
PREVAILING AGAIN STATEWIDE FROM OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND NOW THROUGH
TUESDAY.

RECENTLY CANCELLED AIRMET FOR LOW LEVEL TURB OVER KAUAI AS DOPPLER
WIND PROFILE FROM KAUAI RADAR SHOWED WINDS HAD WEAKENED. TROPICAL
CYCLONE SIGMET QUEBEC SERIES FOR ANA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WAIMEA BUOY ON OAHU CONTINUES TO REPORTS SEAS NEAR 8 FT. MOST
OF THIS ENERGY IS FROM A LARGE NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL THAT HAS BEEN
AFFECTING THE ISLANDS. WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SWELL
DIMINISHING A BIT NOW BUT SURGING BACK BRIEFLY THIS EVENING. BASED
ON THESE VALUES...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. WITH
ANA WEAKENING AND MOVING WEST OF THE STATE...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SOUTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI COUNTY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU
KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...FUJII







000
FXHW60 PHFO 210203
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS TAPERED OFF AS TROPICAL STORM ANA MOVES FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE STATE...LEAVING BEHIND LIGHTER SHOWERS NEAR KAUAI AND
THICK HIGH CLOUDS AS FAR AS OAHU. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL FOCUS
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOME
LIGHTER FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A BAND OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONT NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL ENHANCE
RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 2 PM HST...TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED 320 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LIHUE...AND IS MOVING TO THE WEST AT 7 MPH.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED WEST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH STEADY LIGHT TO WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE SHOWERS NEAR
KAUAI AND NIIHAU. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE SHOWERS ARE FOLLOWING A
MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN...WITH LIGHT RAIN ACROSS WINDWARD
AND MAUKA SECTIONS. A THICK LAYER OF MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXTENDS FROM ANA ACROSS MUCH OF KAUAI AND OAHU...AND WILL KEEP SKIES
CLOUDY ACROSS THESE ISLANDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE STATE...WITH A TROUGH FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. ANA IS LOCATED SOUTH
OF THE HIGH...AND CONTINUES MOVING TO THE WEST AWAY FROM THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR
NORTH OF THE STATE...WITH A DISSIPATING FRONT JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM HILO SHOWS A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
PROFILE...WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 6KFT AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF 1.4 INCHES. THE 00Z LIHUE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS MORE DRYING
AND SUBSIDENCE...WITH A STRENGTHENING INVERSION AROUND 4-5KFT AND A
PW VALUE DOWN TO 1.7 INCHES. EARLY AFTERNOON MIMIC TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IS HIGHER THAN OBSERVED BY THE SOUNDINGS
AND GPS-MET SENSORS...BUT DOES SHOW THE QUALITATIVE DRYING TREND
FROM THE EAST. MIMIC ALSO SHOWS A BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE ABOUT
100-150 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING
FRONT...WHICH WILL COME INTO PLAY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

SO FAR THE COMBINATION OF STABILIZING AIRMASS...DECREASING
MOISTURE...AND THICK CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT INSOLATION HAS KEPT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR KAUAI TO A MINIMUM THROUGH THE DAY. RECENT
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE BANDS MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTH...AND HAVE INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES A BIG FOR KAUAI COUNTY.
HEAVY RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED...WITH MOST OF THESE RETURNS FROM THE
ELEVATED CLOUD DECK THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE AREA.

ANA WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD...BUT WILL LEAVE THE MIDDLE AND
HIGH LEVEL LAYERED CLOUDS ACROSS PART OF THE STATE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW TONIGHT WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A PORTION OF A DISSIPATING FRONT
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THE 18Z GFS IS
MORE VIGOROUS WITH CONVECTION ALONG THIS OLD BOUNDARY...AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZING AGAIN. WITHOUT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS SEEMS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE...AND THE
SATURATED/UNSTABLE PROFILES MAY BE A RESULT OF CONVECTION IN THE
MODEL RATHER THAN AN INDICATOR OF IT. HOWEVER...THIS DOES BEAR
WATCHING AS SOME COLDER TOPS HAVE FLARED UP ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES MAINLY FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. IN
ADDITION...THE PERIODS OF LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW LOCALIZED SEA
BREEZES TO FORM ACROSS SHELTERED LEEWARD AREAS...AND MAY CONTRIBUTE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONLY THICK HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM ANA AFFECTING
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY KAUAI. SMALLER AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS
OVER OAHU PERSIST AND MAY LINGER AND EVEN MOVE TO THE OTHER ISLANDS
TONIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY THERE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
PREVAILING AGAIN STATEWIDE FROM OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND NOW THROUGH
TUESDAY.

RECENTLY CANCELLED AIRMET FOR LOW LEVEL TURB OVER KAUAI AS DOPPLER
WIND PROFILE FROM KAUAI RADAR SHOWED WINDS HAD WEAKENED. TROPICAL
CYCLONE SIGMET QUEBEC SERIES FOR ANA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WAIMEA BUOY ON OAHU CONTINUES TO REPORTS SEAS NEAR 8 FT. MOST
OF THIS ENERGY IS FROM A LARGE NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL THAT HAS BEEN
AFFECTING THE ISLANDS. WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SWELL
DIMINISHING A BIT NOW BUT SURGING BACK BRIEFLY THIS EVENING. BASED
ON THESE VALUES...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. WITH
ANA WEAKENING AND MOVING WEST OF THE STATE...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SOUTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI COUNTY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU
KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...FUJII






000
FXHW60 PHFO 210203
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS TAPERED OFF AS TROPICAL STORM ANA MOVES FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE STATE...LEAVING BEHIND LIGHTER SHOWERS NEAR KAUAI AND
THICK HIGH CLOUDS AS FAR AS OAHU. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL FOCUS
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOME
LIGHTER FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A BAND OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONT NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL ENHANCE
RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 2 PM HST...TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED 320 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LIHUE...AND IS MOVING TO THE WEST AT 7 MPH.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED WEST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH STEADY LIGHT TO WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE SHOWERS NEAR
KAUAI AND NIIHAU. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE SHOWERS ARE FOLLOWING A
MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN...WITH LIGHT RAIN ACROSS WINDWARD
AND MAUKA SECTIONS. A THICK LAYER OF MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXTENDS FROM ANA ACROSS MUCH OF KAUAI AND OAHU...AND WILL KEEP SKIES
CLOUDY ACROSS THESE ISLANDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE STATE...WITH A TROUGH FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. ANA IS LOCATED SOUTH
OF THE HIGH...AND CONTINUES MOVING TO THE WEST AWAY FROM THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR
NORTH OF THE STATE...WITH A DISSIPATING FRONT JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM HILO SHOWS A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
PROFILE...WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 6KFT AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF 1.4 INCHES. THE 00Z LIHUE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS MORE DRYING
AND SUBSIDENCE...WITH A STRENGTHENING INVERSION AROUND 4-5KFT AND A
PW VALUE DOWN TO 1.7 INCHES. EARLY AFTERNOON MIMIC TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IS HIGHER THAN OBSERVED BY THE SOUNDINGS
AND GPS-MET SENSORS...BUT DOES SHOW THE QUALITATIVE DRYING TREND
FROM THE EAST. MIMIC ALSO SHOWS A BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE ABOUT
100-150 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING
FRONT...WHICH WILL COME INTO PLAY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

SO FAR THE COMBINATION OF STABILIZING AIRMASS...DECREASING
MOISTURE...AND THICK CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT INSOLATION HAS KEPT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR KAUAI TO A MINIMUM THROUGH THE DAY. RECENT
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE BANDS MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTH...AND HAVE INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES A BIG FOR KAUAI COUNTY.
HEAVY RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED...WITH MOST OF THESE RETURNS FROM THE
ELEVATED CLOUD DECK THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE AREA.

ANA WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD...BUT WILL LEAVE THE MIDDLE AND
HIGH LEVEL LAYERED CLOUDS ACROSS PART OF THE STATE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW TONIGHT WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A PORTION OF A DISSIPATING FRONT
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THE 18Z GFS IS
MORE VIGOROUS WITH CONVECTION ALONG THIS OLD BOUNDARY...AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZING AGAIN. WITHOUT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS SEEMS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE...AND THE
SATURATED/UNSTABLE PROFILES MAY BE A RESULT OF CONVECTION IN THE
MODEL RATHER THAN AN INDICATOR OF IT. HOWEVER...THIS DOES BEAR
WATCHING AS SOME COLDER TOPS HAVE FLARED UP ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES MAINLY FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. IN
ADDITION...THE PERIODS OF LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW LOCALIZED SEA
BREEZES TO FORM ACROSS SHELTERED LEEWARD AREAS...AND MAY CONTRIBUTE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONLY THICK HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM ANA AFFECTING
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY KAUAI. SMALLER AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS
OVER OAHU PERSIST AND MAY LINGER AND EVEN MOVE TO THE OTHER ISLANDS
TONIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY THERE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
PREVAILING AGAIN STATEWIDE FROM OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND NOW THROUGH
TUESDAY.

RECENTLY CANCELLED AIRMET FOR LOW LEVEL TURB OVER KAUAI AS DOPPLER
WIND PROFILE FROM KAUAI RADAR SHOWED WINDS HAD WEAKENED. TROPICAL
CYCLONE SIGMET QUEBEC SERIES FOR ANA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WAIMEA BUOY ON OAHU CONTINUES TO REPORTS SEAS NEAR 8 FT. MOST
OF THIS ENERGY IS FROM A LARGE NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL THAT HAS BEEN
AFFECTING THE ISLANDS. WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SWELL
DIMINISHING A BIT NOW BUT SURGING BACK BRIEFLY THIS EVENING. BASED
ON THESE VALUES...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. WITH
ANA WEAKENING AND MOVING WEST OF THE STATE...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SOUTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI COUNTY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU
KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...FUJII






000
FXHW60 PHFO 210203
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS TAPERED OFF AS TROPICAL STORM ANA MOVES FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE STATE...LEAVING BEHIND LIGHTER SHOWERS NEAR KAUAI AND
THICK HIGH CLOUDS AS FAR AS OAHU. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL FOCUS
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOME
LIGHTER FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A BAND OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONT NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL ENHANCE
RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 2 PM HST...TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED 320 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LIHUE...AND IS MOVING TO THE WEST AT 7 MPH.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED WEST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH STEADY LIGHT TO WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE SHOWERS NEAR
KAUAI AND NIIHAU. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE SHOWERS ARE FOLLOWING A
MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN...WITH LIGHT RAIN ACROSS WINDWARD
AND MAUKA SECTIONS. A THICK LAYER OF MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXTENDS FROM ANA ACROSS MUCH OF KAUAI AND OAHU...AND WILL KEEP SKIES
CLOUDY ACROSS THESE ISLANDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE STATE...WITH A TROUGH FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. ANA IS LOCATED SOUTH
OF THE HIGH...AND CONTINUES MOVING TO THE WEST AWAY FROM THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR
NORTH OF THE STATE...WITH A DISSIPATING FRONT JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM HILO SHOWS A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
PROFILE...WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 6KFT AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF 1.4 INCHES. THE 00Z LIHUE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS MORE DRYING
AND SUBSIDENCE...WITH A STRENGTHENING INVERSION AROUND 4-5KFT AND A
PW VALUE DOWN TO 1.7 INCHES. EARLY AFTERNOON MIMIC TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IS HIGHER THAN OBSERVED BY THE SOUNDINGS
AND GPS-MET SENSORS...BUT DOES SHOW THE QUALITATIVE DRYING TREND
FROM THE EAST. MIMIC ALSO SHOWS A BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE ABOUT
100-150 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING
FRONT...WHICH WILL COME INTO PLAY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

SO FAR THE COMBINATION OF STABILIZING AIRMASS...DECREASING
MOISTURE...AND THICK CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT INSOLATION HAS KEPT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR KAUAI TO A MINIMUM THROUGH THE DAY. RECENT
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE BANDS MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTH...AND HAVE INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES A BIG FOR KAUAI COUNTY.
HEAVY RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED...WITH MOST OF THESE RETURNS FROM THE
ELEVATED CLOUD DECK THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE AREA.

ANA WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD...BUT WILL LEAVE THE MIDDLE AND
HIGH LEVEL LAYERED CLOUDS ACROSS PART OF THE STATE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW TONIGHT WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A PORTION OF A DISSIPATING FRONT
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THE 18Z GFS IS
MORE VIGOROUS WITH CONVECTION ALONG THIS OLD BOUNDARY...AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZING AGAIN. WITHOUT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS SEEMS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE...AND THE
SATURATED/UNSTABLE PROFILES MAY BE A RESULT OF CONVECTION IN THE
MODEL RATHER THAN AN INDICATOR OF IT. HOWEVER...THIS DOES BEAR
WATCHING AS SOME COLDER TOPS HAVE FLARED UP ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES MAINLY FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. IN
ADDITION...THE PERIODS OF LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW LOCALIZED SEA
BREEZES TO FORM ACROSS SHELTERED LEEWARD AREAS...AND MAY CONTRIBUTE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONLY THICK HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM ANA AFFECTING
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY KAUAI. SMALLER AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS
OVER OAHU PERSIST AND MAY LINGER AND EVEN MOVE TO THE OTHER ISLANDS
TONIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY THERE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
PREVAILING AGAIN STATEWIDE FROM OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND NOW THROUGH
TUESDAY.

RECENTLY CANCELLED AIRMET FOR LOW LEVEL TURB OVER KAUAI AS DOPPLER
WIND PROFILE FROM KAUAI RADAR SHOWED WINDS HAD WEAKENED. TROPICAL
CYCLONE SIGMET QUEBEC SERIES FOR ANA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WAIMEA BUOY ON OAHU CONTINUES TO REPORTS SEAS NEAR 8 FT. MOST
OF THIS ENERGY IS FROM A LARGE NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL THAT HAS BEEN
AFFECTING THE ISLANDS. WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SWELL
DIMINISHING A BIT NOW BUT SURGING BACK BRIEFLY THIS EVENING. BASED
ON THESE VALUES...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. WITH
ANA WEAKENING AND MOVING WEST OF THE STATE...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SOUTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI COUNTY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU
KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...FUJII







000
FXHW60 PHFO 202029
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS TAPERED OFF AS TROPICAL STORM ANA MOVES FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE STATE. MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL FOCUS
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS TODAY...THEN BECOME
LIGHTER FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTER A DRIER
PERIOD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WE COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 8 AM HST...TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED 250 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LIHUE...AND IS MOVING TO THE WEST AT 10 MPH.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED WEST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WEST OF NIIHAU.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE SHOWERS ARE FOLLOWING A MORE TYPICAL
TRADE WIND PATTERN...WITH LIGHT RAIN ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SECTIONS. A THICK LAYER OF MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDS
FROM ANA ACROSS MUCH OF KAUAI AND OAHU...AND WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY
ACROSS THESE ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE STATE...WITH A TROUGH FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. ANA IS LOCATED SOUTH
OF THE HIGH...AND CONTINUES MOVING TO THE WEST AWAY FROM THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR
NORTH OF THE STATE...WITH A DISSIPATING FRONT JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM HILO SHOWS A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
PROFILE...WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 6KFT AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF 1.4 INCHES. THE 12Z LIHUE SOUNDING SHOWS A DEVELOPING
INVERSION WITH SOME WARMING/DRYING FROM 900-700MB...BUT OVERALL IT
REMAINS UNSTABLE. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER AT LIHUE WAS 2.1 INCHES.
EARLY MORNING MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THIS
DRYING FROM THE EAST...AND THE GPS-MET SENSOR ON HONOLULU SHOWS A
DECREASE IN PW LAST NIGHT. MIMIC ALSO SHOWS A BAND OF HIGHER
MOISTURE ABOUT 200 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL COME INTO PLAY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

EVEN THOUGH THE 12Z LIHUE SOUNDING WAS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE...A
19Z ACARS FLIGHT INTO LIHUE SHOWED MORE WARMING AROUND 5KFT...A SIGN
OF THE INVERSION FURTHER STRENGTHENING. EVEN WITH THE MOIST
AIRMASS...THE COMBINATION OF DRYING AND STABILIZING LOW LEVELS AND A
VERY THICK LAYER OF MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS TO LIMIT INSOLATION WILL
LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE FLOODING CONDITIONS TODAY...AND HAVE DROPPED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FROM OAHU WESTWARD. UPDATED THE
FORECAST BASED ON LATEST DRYING TRENDS TO LOWER RAINFALL CHANCES
ACROSS MOST AREAS.

ANA WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD...BUT WILL LEAVE THE MIDDLE AND
HIGH LEVEL LAYERED CLOUDS ACROSS PART OF THE STATE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. GENERAL MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS A PORTION OF A DISSIPATING FRONT
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN WINDWARD SHOWERS MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO
FORM ACROSS SHELTERED LEEWARD AREAS...AND MAY CONTRIBUTE SOME
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
AS ANA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE STATE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AGAIN FROM OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND TODAY
INTO TUESDAY. KAUAI SEEING MOSTLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS BUT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT EAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWING FEWER SHOWERS OVER THE GARDEN
ISLE AS WE SPEAK BUT STILL FORMING MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE ISLAND.

DOPPLER WIND PROFILE FROM KAUAI RADAR SHOWS WINDS SLACKENING OFF IN
THE LOWER LEVELS THUS THE CURRENT AIRMET FOR LOW LEVEL TURB
CURRENTLY FOR THAT ISLAND MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL
CYCLONE SIGMET QUEBEC SERIES CONTINUES FOR NOW UNTIL ANA WEAKENS
BELOW TROPICAL STORM STATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE HANALEI BUOY ON KAUAI IS STILL RUNNING NEAR 10FT AND THE WAIMEA
BUOY ON OAHU IS NEAR 8 FT. ONE CONTRIBUTOR TO THESE SEAS IS A LARGE
NORTH SWELL. WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SWELL DIMINISHING A
BIT TODAY BUT SURGING BACK HIGHER THIS EVENING. BASED ON THESE
VALUES...WE HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGH SURF FOR NORTH FACING SHORES
THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FALLING OVERNIGHT. A SECOND
CONTRIBUTOR TO THE HIGH SEAS IS THE SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM ANA.
AS ANA CONTINUES MOVING WEST...THIS SWELL WILL HAVE LESS OF AN
IMPACT. HOWEVER...WE KEPT THE HIGH SURF IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU FOR NOW. BASED ON THE HIGH VALUES
OBSERVED AT HANALEI...WE ALSO EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
WATERS AROUND KAUAI THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU SOUTH SHORE-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH
SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-
BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
KAUAI CHANNEL.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...FUJII







000
FXHW60 PHFO 202029
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS TAPERED OFF AS TROPICAL STORM ANA MOVES FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE STATE. MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL FOCUS
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS TODAY...THEN BECOME
LIGHTER FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTER A DRIER
PERIOD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WE COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 8 AM HST...TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED 250 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LIHUE...AND IS MOVING TO THE WEST AT 10 MPH.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED WEST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WEST OF NIIHAU.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE SHOWERS ARE FOLLOWING A MORE TYPICAL
TRADE WIND PATTERN...WITH LIGHT RAIN ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SECTIONS. A THICK LAYER OF MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDS
FROM ANA ACROSS MUCH OF KAUAI AND OAHU...AND WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY
ACROSS THESE ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE STATE...WITH A TROUGH FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. ANA IS LOCATED SOUTH
OF THE HIGH...AND CONTINUES MOVING TO THE WEST AWAY FROM THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR
NORTH OF THE STATE...WITH A DISSIPATING FRONT JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM HILO SHOWS A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
PROFILE...WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 6KFT AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF 1.4 INCHES. THE 12Z LIHUE SOUNDING SHOWS A DEVELOPING
INVERSION WITH SOME WARMING/DRYING FROM 900-700MB...BUT OVERALL IT
REMAINS UNSTABLE. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER AT LIHUE WAS 2.1 INCHES.
EARLY MORNING MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THIS
DRYING FROM THE EAST...AND THE GPS-MET SENSOR ON HONOLULU SHOWS A
DECREASE IN PW LAST NIGHT. MIMIC ALSO SHOWS A BAND OF HIGHER
MOISTURE ABOUT 200 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL COME INTO PLAY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

EVEN THOUGH THE 12Z LIHUE SOUNDING WAS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE...A
19Z ACARS FLIGHT INTO LIHUE SHOWED MORE WARMING AROUND 5KFT...A SIGN
OF THE INVERSION FURTHER STRENGTHENING. EVEN WITH THE MOIST
AIRMASS...THE COMBINATION OF DRYING AND STABILIZING LOW LEVELS AND A
VERY THICK LAYER OF MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS TO LIMIT INSOLATION WILL
LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE FLOODING CONDITIONS TODAY...AND HAVE DROPPED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FROM OAHU WESTWARD. UPDATED THE
FORECAST BASED ON LATEST DRYING TRENDS TO LOWER RAINFALL CHANCES
ACROSS MOST AREAS.

ANA WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD...BUT WILL LEAVE THE MIDDLE AND
HIGH LEVEL LAYERED CLOUDS ACROSS PART OF THE STATE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. GENERAL MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS A PORTION OF A DISSIPATING FRONT
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN WINDWARD SHOWERS MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO
FORM ACROSS SHELTERED LEEWARD AREAS...AND MAY CONTRIBUTE SOME
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
AS ANA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE STATE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AGAIN FROM OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND TODAY
INTO TUESDAY. KAUAI SEEING MOSTLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS BUT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT EAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWING FEWER SHOWERS OVER THE GARDEN
ISLE AS WE SPEAK BUT STILL FORMING MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE ISLAND.

DOPPLER WIND PROFILE FROM KAUAI RADAR SHOWS WINDS SLACKENING OFF IN
THE LOWER LEVELS THUS THE CURRENT AIRMET FOR LOW LEVEL TURB
CURRENTLY FOR THAT ISLAND MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL
CYCLONE SIGMET QUEBEC SERIES CONTINUES FOR NOW UNTIL ANA WEAKENS
BELOW TROPICAL STORM STATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE HANALEI BUOY ON KAUAI IS STILL RUNNING NEAR 10FT AND THE WAIMEA
BUOY ON OAHU IS NEAR 8 FT. ONE CONTRIBUTOR TO THESE SEAS IS A LARGE
NORTH SWELL. WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SWELL DIMINISHING A
BIT TODAY BUT SURGING BACK HIGHER THIS EVENING. BASED ON THESE
VALUES...WE HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGH SURF FOR NORTH FACING SHORES
THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FALLING OVERNIGHT. A SECOND
CONTRIBUTOR TO THE HIGH SEAS IS THE SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM ANA.
AS ANA CONTINUES MOVING WEST...THIS SWELL WILL HAVE LESS OF AN
IMPACT. HOWEVER...WE KEPT THE HIGH SURF IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU FOR NOW. BASED ON THE HIGH VALUES
OBSERVED AT HANALEI...WE ALSO EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
WATERS AROUND KAUAI THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU SOUTH SHORE-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH
SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-
BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
KAUAI CHANNEL.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...FUJII






000
FXHW60 PHFO 201347
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
345 AM HST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE ALOHA STATE AND COASTAL WATERS
HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS ANA SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE
ALOHA STATE. A MODERATE EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN
ESTABLISHING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEN LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS
FAVORING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. THE TRADES SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH AT TIMES TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND
BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE ALOHA STATE HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OAHU AND
KAUAI COUNTY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING...AND IT WILL BE ADJUSTED
AS NECESSARY.

RADAR DATA STILL SHOW A RATHER LARGE FIELD OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH DEPARTING ANA...KEEPING PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND OAHU AND KAUAI COUNTY THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. AND ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING...IT IS
POSSIBLE TO EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED HEAVY SHOWERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER KAUAI AND NIIHAU. THE 06Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRIER AIRMASS
STARTING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE E WITH PWATS ON THE HILO
SOUNDING AT 1.4 INCHES...WHILE LIHUE STILL HAS MORE THAN 2 INCHES.
BUT DESPITE THIS TREND...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM ANA WILL STILL BE
ABLE TO FUEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF OF THE
ALOHA STATE THROUGH TUE.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...ANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W AND NW
AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS AND ALLOW FOR A GENERALLY E/SE MODERATE FLOW
TO BEGIN ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE AREA STARTING TODAY. MODELS ARE NOW
BACKING DOWN FROM KEEPING A MORE S FLOW OVER THE W EDGE OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN. THUS...THE FORECAST WIND FIELD ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BE MAINLY FROM THE E/SE. AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIRMASS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF ANA.

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW WINDS
RELAXING A LITTLE AND ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO BECOME MORE
PROMINENT EACH AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AFFECTING LEEWARD
AND INTERIOR AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND THE KONA SIDE OF THE
BIG ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE FOR THE ISLANDS AS ANA
MOVES AWAY. TROPICAL STORM ANA AT 1200Z WAS LOCATED AT 20.6N
162.6W...200 NM WSW OF PHLI. KAUAI...INCLUDING PHLI...IS LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE EXTENDED PERIODS OF LOWER CIGS/VIS WITH DEEP LAYERED
CLOUDS AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAINS OVER OAHU AND KAUAI THROUGH THE MORNING.
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND AIRMET ZULU FOR ICING
REMAIN POSTED OVER KAUAI. THEY HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL OTHER
AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR TERMINALS OAHU THROUGH BIG ISLAND.
SHOWERS WILL MAINLY FOCUS ON WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREA AS MODERATE E
WINDS RETURN TO THE STATE. POSSIBLE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER MAUI COUNTY AND OAHU
THROUGH THE MORNING. AIRMET TANGO IS POSTED FOR LOW LEVEL TURB.


SEE TC SIGMET QUEBEC SERIES FOR TROPICAL STORM ANA.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING
DUE TO ELEVATED ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS SURROUNDING KAUAI AND
OVER PARTS OF THE OAHU LEEWARD WATERS DUE TO TROPICAL STORM ANA
SWELLS. AS ANA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST AWAY FROM THE AREA...THESE
TROPICAL CYCLONE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE SCA CRITERIA OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL ALSO MAINTAIN ELEVATED SURF ALONG
WEST AND SOUTH FACING SHORES OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU THIS MORNING. AN
ABOVE AVERAGE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ALSO KEEP THE SURF ELEVATED
ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES OF THE ISLANDS FROM KAUAI AND NIIHAU TO
THE BIG ISLAND. AS A RESULT...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THESE SHORELINES THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION...AND GRADUALLY
LOWER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A NEW SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI-OAHU.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON HST TODAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU SOUTH SHORE-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH
SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-
BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON HST TODAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU LEEWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...REYNES
MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...EATON









000
FXHW60 PHFO 201347
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
345 AM HST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE ALOHA STATE AND COASTAL WATERS
HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS ANA SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE
ALOHA STATE. A MODERATE EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN
ESTABLISHING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEN LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS
FAVORING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. THE TRADES SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH AT TIMES TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND
BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE ALOHA STATE HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OAHU AND
KAUAI COUNTY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING...AND IT WILL BE ADJUSTED
AS NECESSARY.

RADAR DATA STILL SHOW A RATHER LARGE FIELD OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH DEPARTING ANA...KEEPING PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND OAHU AND KAUAI COUNTY THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. AND ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING...IT IS
POSSIBLE TO EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED HEAVY SHOWERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER KAUAI AND NIIHAU. THE 06Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRIER AIRMASS
STARTING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE E WITH PWATS ON THE HILO
SOUNDING AT 1.4 INCHES...WHILE LIHUE STILL HAS MORE THAN 2 INCHES.
BUT DESPITE THIS TREND...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM ANA WILL STILL BE
ABLE TO FUEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF OF THE
ALOHA STATE THROUGH TUE.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...ANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W AND NW
AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS AND ALLOW FOR A GENERALLY E/SE MODERATE FLOW
TO BEGIN ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE AREA STARTING TODAY. MODELS ARE NOW
BACKING DOWN FROM KEEPING A MORE S FLOW OVER THE W EDGE OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN. THUS...THE FORECAST WIND FIELD ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BE MAINLY FROM THE E/SE. AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIRMASS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF ANA.

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW WINDS
RELAXING A LITTLE AND ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO BECOME MORE
PROMINENT EACH AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AFFECTING LEEWARD
AND INTERIOR AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND THE KONA SIDE OF THE
BIG ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE FOR THE ISLANDS AS ANA
MOVES AWAY. TROPICAL STORM ANA AT 1200Z WAS LOCATED AT 20.6N
162.6W...200 NM WSW OF PHLI. KAUAI...INCLUDING PHLI...IS LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE EXTENDED PERIODS OF LOWER CIGS/VIS WITH DEEP LAYERED
CLOUDS AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAINS OVER OAHU AND KAUAI THROUGH THE MORNING.
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND AIRMET ZULU FOR ICING
REMAIN POSTED OVER KAUAI. THEY HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL OTHER
AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR TERMINALS OAHU THROUGH BIG ISLAND.
SHOWERS WILL MAINLY FOCUS ON WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREA AS MODERATE E
WINDS RETURN TO THE STATE. POSSIBLE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER MAUI COUNTY AND OAHU
THROUGH THE MORNING. AIRMET TANGO IS POSTED FOR LOW LEVEL TURB.


SEE TC SIGMET QUEBEC SERIES FOR TROPICAL STORM ANA.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING
DUE TO ELEVATED ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS SURROUNDING KAUAI AND
OVER PARTS OF THE OAHU LEEWARD WATERS DUE TO TROPICAL STORM ANA
SWELLS. AS ANA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST AWAY FROM THE AREA...THESE
TROPICAL CYCLONE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE SCA CRITERIA OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL ALSO MAINTAIN ELEVATED SURF ALONG
WEST AND SOUTH FACING SHORES OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU THIS MORNING. AN
ABOVE AVERAGE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ALSO KEEP THE SURF ELEVATED
ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES OF THE ISLANDS FROM KAUAI AND NIIHAU TO
THE BIG ISLAND. AS A RESULT...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THESE SHORELINES THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION...AND GRADUALLY
LOWER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A NEW SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI-OAHU.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON HST TODAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU SOUTH SHORE-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH
SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-
BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON HST TODAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU LEEWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...REYNES
MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...EATON








000
FXHW60 PHFO 200853 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1100 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE ALOHA STATE AND COASTAL WATERS
HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TONIGHT AS ANA SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE ALOHA STATE. A
MODERATE EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN ESTABLISHING
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GENERALLY LIGHT TRADES SHOULD THEN
PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS FAVORING
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. HOWEVER...THE TRADES SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND BRING
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR KAUAI COUNTY AND SURROUNDING WATERS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. HOWEVER...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
OAHU AND KAUAI COUNTY.

AT 11 PM HST HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED AT 20.7N 162.2W...OR ABOUT
200 MILES WSW OF LIHUE KAUAI. ANA IS SLOWLY MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KAUAI COUNTY AND OAHU
UNTIL 6 PM HST MON...AND IT WILL BE ADJUSTED AS NECESSARY.
MEANWHILE...MAUI COUNTY IS NO LONGER UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS
MOST OF THE SHOWERS OBSERVED ON RADAR OVER THE E HALF OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN ARE PRODUCING MODERATE RAIN AT BEST. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT OVER OAHU AND KAUAI AS A
LARGE FIELD OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANA LINGERS TO THE S AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE DECREASING ACROSS OAHU...PERIODS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUN MORNING. RADAR DATA HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KAUAI COUNTY SO FAR THIS EVENING...BUT ANA REMAINS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...ANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE W AND NW AWAY
FROM THE ISLANDS AND ALLOW FOR A GENERALLY E/SE MODERATE FLOW TO
BEGIN ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE AREA ON MON. MODELS ARE NOW BACKING
DOWN FROM KEEPING A MORE S FLOW OVER THE W EDGE OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN...THUS WILL KEEP THE WIND FIELD ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY E/SE.
A DRYING TREND SHOULD BEGIN ESTABLISHING E TO W AS AN INCREASINGLY
STABLE AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF ANA.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE LINGERING MOISTURE THROUGH TUE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W EDGE OF THE ISLAND CHAIN FOR WHICH HIGHER POPS
WILL BE KEPT IN THE FORECAST.

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW WINDS
RELAXING A LITTLE AND ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND THE KONA SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AS TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...DEEP LAYERED CLOUDS STILL COVER FROM MAUI COUNTY
THROUGH KAUAI AND ITS WATERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH TOMORROW.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR CB TOPS ABOVE FL350...PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS...AND GUSTY WINDS. AT PHLI EXPECT EXTENDED PERIODS
MVFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH TOMORROW.
OVER OAHU...INCLUDING PHNL AND PHJR...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY INTO THE MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO CLEAR
THEREAFTER. EASTERN TERMINALS WILL SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW
LEVEL TURB IN THE LEE OF THE TERRAIN REMAIN OVER MAUI
COUNTY...OAHU...AND KAUAI. AIRMET ZULU FOR ICING BETWEEN 150 AND
FL220 ALSO REMAINS POSTED OVER MAUI THROUGH KAUAI. MAUI COUNTY
AIRMETS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CANCELLED BY 1000Z.

SEE TC SIGMET QUEBEC SERIES FOR TROPICAL STORM ANA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM ANA HAS DEPARTED THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH AND WEST OF KAUAI. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN
EFFECT DUE TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FOR THE WATERS
SURROUNDING KAUAI AND OAHU.

ELSEWHERE...THE WAVES PRODUCED BY ANA WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES OF KAUAI...NIIHAU...OAHU AND MOLOKAI
TONIGHT. AN ABOVE AVERAGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ALSO KEEP THE SURF
ELEVATED ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI...NIIHAU...OAHU
AND MOLOKAI...AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.
THEREFORE...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
SHORELINES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SHIFT TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION...AND WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH TUESDAY. A
NEW SMALL NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI-OAHU.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU SOUTH SHORE-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH
SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-
BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...REYNES
MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 200853 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1100 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE ALOHA STATE AND COASTAL WATERS
HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TONIGHT AS ANA SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE ALOHA STATE. A
MODERATE EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN ESTABLISHING
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GENERALLY LIGHT TRADES SHOULD THEN
PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS FAVORING
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. HOWEVER...THE TRADES SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND BRING
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR KAUAI COUNTY AND SURROUNDING WATERS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. HOWEVER...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
OAHU AND KAUAI COUNTY.

AT 11 PM HST HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED AT 20.7N 162.2W...OR ABOUT
200 MILES WSW OF LIHUE KAUAI. ANA IS SLOWLY MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KAUAI COUNTY AND OAHU
UNTIL 6 PM HST MON...AND IT WILL BE ADJUSTED AS NECESSARY.
MEANWHILE...MAUI COUNTY IS NO LONGER UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS
MOST OF THE SHOWERS OBSERVED ON RADAR OVER THE E HALF OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN ARE PRODUCING MODERATE RAIN AT BEST. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT OVER OAHU AND KAUAI AS A
LARGE FIELD OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANA LINGERS TO THE S AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE DECREASING ACROSS OAHU...PERIODS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUN MORNING. RADAR DATA HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KAUAI COUNTY SO FAR THIS EVENING...BUT ANA REMAINS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...ANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE W AND NW AWAY
FROM THE ISLANDS AND ALLOW FOR A GENERALLY E/SE MODERATE FLOW TO
BEGIN ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE AREA ON MON. MODELS ARE NOW BACKING
DOWN FROM KEEPING A MORE S FLOW OVER THE W EDGE OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN...THUS WILL KEEP THE WIND FIELD ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY E/SE.
A DRYING TREND SHOULD BEGIN ESTABLISHING E TO W AS AN INCREASINGLY
STABLE AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF ANA.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE LINGERING MOISTURE THROUGH TUE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W EDGE OF THE ISLAND CHAIN FOR WHICH HIGHER POPS
WILL BE KEPT IN THE FORECAST.

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW WINDS
RELAXING A LITTLE AND ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND THE KONA SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AS TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...DEEP LAYERED CLOUDS STILL COVER FROM MAUI COUNTY
THROUGH KAUAI AND ITS WATERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH TOMORROW.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR CB TOPS ABOVE FL350...PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS...AND GUSTY WINDS. AT PHLI EXPECT EXTENDED PERIODS
MVFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH TOMORROW.
OVER OAHU...INCLUDING PHNL AND PHJR...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY INTO THE MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO CLEAR
THEREAFTER. EASTERN TERMINALS WILL SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW
LEVEL TURB IN THE LEE OF THE TERRAIN REMAIN OVER MAUI
COUNTY...OAHU...AND KAUAI. AIRMET ZULU FOR ICING BETWEEN 150 AND
FL220 ALSO REMAINS POSTED OVER MAUI THROUGH KAUAI. MAUI COUNTY
AIRMETS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CANCELLED BY 1000Z.

SEE TC SIGMET QUEBEC SERIES FOR TROPICAL STORM ANA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM ANA HAS DEPARTED THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH AND WEST OF KAUAI. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN
EFFECT DUE TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FOR THE WATERS
SURROUNDING KAUAI AND OAHU.

ELSEWHERE...THE WAVES PRODUCED BY ANA WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES OF KAUAI...NIIHAU...OAHU AND MOLOKAI
TONIGHT. AN ABOVE AVERAGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ALSO KEEP THE SURF
ELEVATED ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI...NIIHAU...OAHU
AND MOLOKAI...AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.
THEREFORE...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
SHORELINES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SHIFT TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION...AND WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH TUESDAY. A
NEW SMALL NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI-OAHU.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU SOUTH SHORE-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH
SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-
BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...REYNES
MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...EATON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 200647
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
840 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TONIGHT AS ANA
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE ALOHA STATE. EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL BEGIN ESTABLISHING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EXCEPT
KAUAI COUNTY WHERE A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. GENERALLY LIGHT TRADES SHOULD THEN PREVAIL
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS. HOWEVER...THE TRADES SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 7 PM HST HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED AT 20.7N 161.7W...OR ABOUT 175
MILES WSW OF LIHUE KAUAI. ANA IS SLOWLY MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KAUAI COUNTY AND OAHU
UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY...AND IT WILL BE ADJUSTED AS NECESSARY.
MEANWHILE...MAUI COUNTY IS NO LONGER UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS
MOST OF THE SHOWERS OBSERVED ON RADAR OVER THE E HALF OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN ARE PRODUCING MODERATE RAIN AT BEST. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT OVER OAHU AND KAUAI AS A
LARGE FIELD OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANA LINGERS TO THE S AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE DECREASING ACROSS OAHU...PERIODS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUN MORNING. RADAR DATA HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KAUAI COUNTY SO FAR THIS EVENING...BUT ANA REMAINS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING ADDITIONAL RAINBANDS TONIGHT. THUS...THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KAUAI COUNTY. ALSO...A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR OAHU AND KAUAI COUNTY.

PEOPLE IN HAWAII SHOULD REMAIN WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST
BULLETINS AND FORECASTS WHICH ARE AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTPA25 PHFO AND TCMCP5. PUBLIC
ADVISORIES UNDER HEADERS WTPA35 PHFO AND TCPCP5...AND DISCUSSIONS
UNDER HEADERS WTPA45 PHFO AND TCDCP5. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN
ALSO BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL STORM ANA LOCAL STATEMENT UNDER
HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK..ANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE W AND NW AWAY
FROM THE ISLANDS AND ALLOW FOR A GENERALLY E/SE MODERATE FLOW TO
BEGIN ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE AREA ON MON...EXCEPT ACROSS KAUAI
COUNTY WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF ANA WILL KEEP AN OVERALL SYNOPTIC FLOW
FROM THE S. A DRYING TREND SHOULD BEGIN ESTABLISHING AS AN
INCREASINGLY STABLE AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF ANA.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE LINGERING MOISTURE THROUGH TUE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W EDGE OF THE ISLAND CHAIN FOR WHICH HIGHER POPS
WILL BE KEPT IN THE FORECAST.

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW WINDS
RELAXING A LITTLE AND ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND THE KONA SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AS TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...DEEP LAYERED CLOUDS STILL COVER FROM MAUI COUNTY
THROUGH KAUAI AND ITS WATERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH TOMORROW.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR CB TOPS ABOVE FL350...PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS...AND GUSTY WINDS. AT PHLI EXPECT EXTENDED PERIODS
MVFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH TOMORROW.
OVER OAHU...INCLUDING PHNL AND PHJR...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY INTO THE MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO CLEAR
THEREAFTER. EASTERN TERMINALS WILL SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW
LEVEL TURB IN THE LEE OF THE TERRAIN REMAIN OVER MAUI
COUNTY...OAHU...AND KAUAI. AIRMET ZULU FOR ICING BETWEEN 150 AND
FL220 ALSO REMAINS POSTED OVER MAUI THROUGH KAUAI. MAUI COUNTY
AIRMETS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CANCELLED BY 1000Z.


SEE TC SIGMET QUEBEC SERIES FOR TROPICAL STORM ANA.

&&

.MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM ANA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DUE
TO STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...LARGE SWELLS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER EXPOSED
AREAS OF THE WATERS SOUTH AND WEST OF KAUAI THIS EVENING. FOR MORE
DETAILED INFORMATION ON MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS CLOSE TO
ANA...PLEASE REFER TO THE HURRICANE ANA LOCAL STATEMENT AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING OAHU...THE KAUAI
CHANNEL...THE KAUAI NORTHWEST AND WINDWARD WATERS...AND THE MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.

ELSEWHERE...THE WAVES PRODUCED BY ANA WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU AND MOLOKAI TONIGHT. A NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL ALSO KEEP THE SURF ELEVATED ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF OAHU AND MOLOKAI AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI AND THE
BIG ISLAND. THEREFORE...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THESE SHORELINES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SHIFT TO
A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION...AND WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH
TUESDAY. A NEW SMALL NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI-OAHU.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR OAHU SOUTH SHORE-
WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD
WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...REYNES
MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...EATON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 200647
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
840 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TONIGHT AS ANA
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE ALOHA STATE. EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL BEGIN ESTABLISHING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EXCEPT
KAUAI COUNTY WHERE A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. GENERALLY LIGHT TRADES SHOULD THEN PREVAIL
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS. HOWEVER...THE TRADES SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 7 PM HST HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED AT 20.7N 161.7W...OR ABOUT 175
MILES WSW OF LIHUE KAUAI. ANA IS SLOWLY MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KAUAI COUNTY AND OAHU
UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY...AND IT WILL BE ADJUSTED AS NECESSARY.
MEANWHILE...MAUI COUNTY IS NO LONGER UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS
MOST OF THE SHOWERS OBSERVED ON RADAR OVER THE E HALF OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN ARE PRODUCING MODERATE RAIN AT BEST. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT OVER OAHU AND KAUAI AS A
LARGE FIELD OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANA LINGERS TO THE S AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE DECREASING ACROSS OAHU...PERIODS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUN MORNING. RADAR DATA HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KAUAI COUNTY SO FAR THIS EVENING...BUT ANA REMAINS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING ADDITIONAL RAINBANDS TONIGHT. THUS...THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KAUAI COUNTY. ALSO...A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR OAHU AND KAUAI COUNTY.

PEOPLE IN HAWAII SHOULD REMAIN WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST
BULLETINS AND FORECASTS WHICH ARE AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTPA25 PHFO AND TCMCP5. PUBLIC
ADVISORIES UNDER HEADERS WTPA35 PHFO AND TCPCP5...AND DISCUSSIONS
UNDER HEADERS WTPA45 PHFO AND TCDCP5. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN
ALSO BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL STORM ANA LOCAL STATEMENT UNDER
HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK..ANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE W AND NW AWAY
FROM THE ISLANDS AND ALLOW FOR A GENERALLY E/SE MODERATE FLOW TO
BEGIN ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE AREA ON MON...EXCEPT ACROSS KAUAI
COUNTY WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF ANA WILL KEEP AN OVERALL SYNOPTIC FLOW
FROM THE S. A DRYING TREND SHOULD BEGIN ESTABLISHING AS AN
INCREASINGLY STABLE AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF ANA.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE LINGERING MOISTURE THROUGH TUE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W EDGE OF THE ISLAND CHAIN FOR WHICH HIGHER POPS
WILL BE KEPT IN THE FORECAST.

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW WINDS
RELAXING A LITTLE AND ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND THE KONA SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AS TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...DEEP LAYERED CLOUDS STILL COVER FROM MAUI COUNTY
THROUGH KAUAI AND ITS WATERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH TOMORROW.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR CB TOPS ABOVE FL350...PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS...AND GUSTY WINDS. AT PHLI EXPECT EXTENDED PERIODS
MVFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH TOMORROW.
OVER OAHU...INCLUDING PHNL AND PHJR...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY INTO THE MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO CLEAR
THEREAFTER. EASTERN TERMINALS WILL SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW
LEVEL TURB IN THE LEE OF THE TERRAIN REMAIN OVER MAUI
COUNTY...OAHU...AND KAUAI. AIRMET ZULU FOR ICING BETWEEN 150 AND
FL220 ALSO REMAINS POSTED OVER MAUI THROUGH KAUAI. MAUI COUNTY
AIRMETS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CANCELLED BY 1000Z.


SEE TC SIGMET QUEBEC SERIES FOR TROPICAL STORM ANA.

&&

.MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM ANA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DUE
TO STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...LARGE SWELLS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER EXPOSED
AREAS OF THE WATERS SOUTH AND WEST OF KAUAI THIS EVENING. FOR MORE
DETAILED INFORMATION ON MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS CLOSE TO
ANA...PLEASE REFER TO THE HURRICANE ANA LOCAL STATEMENT AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING OAHU...THE KAUAI
CHANNEL...THE KAUAI NORTHWEST AND WINDWARD WATERS...AND THE MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.

ELSEWHERE...THE WAVES PRODUCED BY ANA WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU AND MOLOKAI TONIGHT. A NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL ALSO KEEP THE SURF ELEVATED ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF OAHU AND MOLOKAI AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI AND THE
BIG ISLAND. THEREFORE...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THESE SHORELINES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SHIFT TO
A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION...AND WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH
TUESDAY. A NEW SMALL NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI-OAHU.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR OAHU SOUTH SHORE-
WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD
WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...REYNES
MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...EATON








000
FXHW60 PHFO 200333 AAB
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
530 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AREAS HAVE EITHER BEEN
DROPPED OR ADJUSTED. THIS UPDATE REFLECT THE CHANGES.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS.

NO LONGER IN EFFECT IS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR KAUAI CHANNEL.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW REPLACES IT.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
INCLEMENT WEATHER BROUGHT ON BY ANA WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OUT THROUGH
MONDAY. THE BIG ISLAND WILL BE UNDER A LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH
THE NEW WEEK WHILE KAUAI REMAINS UNDER A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
LIGHT TRADES SHOULD SPREAD TO OAHU BY THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS
FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. SINCE THE TRADES WILL BE
LIGHT...SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL FORM OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD
AREAS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANA WAS JUST DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM A SHORT WHILE AGO.

AT 3 PM HST HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED AT 20.7N 160.9W...OR ABOUT 130
MILES SW OF LIHUE KAUAI AND 210 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU.
ANA IS MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH.

AS ANA PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...THERE
WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. SO...STAY WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
BULLETINS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU.

IN THE MEAN TIME...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO KAUAI
COUNTY AND OAHU TO 6 PM HST MONDAY. THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE...BUT
THIS WILL ALLOW TOMORROW/S DAY CREW TO REASSESS THE SITUATION.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELED FOR MAUI COUNTY SINCE IT HAS BEEN
A RATHER QUIET DAY THERE TODAY...AND ALL LIKELIHOOD IF THERE IS ANY
FLARE UPS...IT WILL BE ISOLATED OR LOCAL. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING PERIOD.

OAHU CONTINUED TO RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SO
FAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED SPOTS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE TWO ARE MANOA LYON ARBORETUM
AT 7.21 INCHES AND WAIHEE PUMP AT 5.07 INCHES. A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS
OF INTEREST...KUNIA SUBSTATION AT 4.95 INCHES AND LUALUALEI RIGHT
BEHIND AT 4.94 INCHES. THESE TOTALS ARE THE READINGS ENDING AT 2 PM
HST. AGAIN...MAUI COUNTY HAS BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET SO FAR WITH
MINIMAL RAINS IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.

ON THE BIG ISLAND...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED IN THE HILO AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT HAS BEEN GENERALLY QUIET ELSEWHERE. WE DO
EXPECT SOME QUICK FLARE UPS ESPECIALLY THE KONA AND KAU AREAS OF THE
ISLAND THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

PEOPLE IN HAWAII SHOULD REMAIN WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST
BULLETINS AND FORECASTS WHICH ARE AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTPA25 PHFO AND TCMCP5. PUBLIC
ADVISORIES UNDER HEADERS WTPA35 PHFO AND TCPCP5...AND DISCUSSIONS
UNDER HEADERS WTPA45 PHFO AND TCDCP5. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN
ALSO BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL STORM ANA LOCAL STATEMENT UNDER
HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OF ANA ON TUESDAY. THE
WIND FLOW WILL PRIMARILY BE SOUTHEAST EXCEPT FOR LIGHT TRADES FROM
MAUI EASTWARD. STRONGER TRADES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN AREA WIDE
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS SAID...THE ISLANDS ARE PRONE TO HAVE
DAYTIME SEA BREEZES RESULTING IN AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND A SHOWER OR
TWO  OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND THE KONA
SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE GRIDS MAY NOT REFLECT THIS AND WILL BE
WORKED ON OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ANA CONTINUES TO BRING DEEP LAYERED CLOUDS TO THE REGION FROM
MOLOKAI AND LANAI TO THE WATERS NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE LATER THIS EVENING OVER MOLOKAI AND
LANAI...BUT WILL LIKELY PREVAIL OVER OAHU AND KAUAI THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

THE LAYERED CLOUDS...SHRA/TSRA HAVE PROMPTED AN AIRMET FOR
ICING...FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION...AND FOR TURBULENCE. EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

SEE TC SIGMET QUEBEC SERIES FOR HURRICANE ANA.


&&

.MARINE...
ANA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EXTREME SOUTH END OF THE LEEWARD
WATERS OF KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE KAUAI CHANNEL WHERE OCEAN
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS...LARGE SWELLS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER EXPOSED AREAS. THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR KAUAI/S NORTHWEST AND WINDWARD WATERS WAS LOWERED
EARLIER AT AROUND NOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THESE TWO ZONES. THE SITUATION IS FLUID AND CHANGING HOWEVER.
SO...STAY WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BULLETINS
FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN HONOLULU.

THE SWELL FROM ANA WILL KEEP THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY GOING FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE SOUTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU. THERE IS ALSO
AN ABOVE NORMAL NORTHWEST SWELL THAT WILL KEEP THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH AND WEST SHORES OF OAHU AND MOLOKAI
AND THE NORTH FACING SHORES OF KAUAI THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM FOR THE WATERS FROM
MAUI COUNTY WESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.

ALL PEOPLE IN HAWAII SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE LATEST BULLETINS AND
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN HONOLULU.

FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS...PLEASE
REFER TO THE HURRICANE ANA LOCAL STATEMENT AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

ELSEWHERE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA / FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF
THE BIG ISLAND HAS BEEN CANCELED. HOWEVER...THE SCA IS NOW IN PLACE
FOR THE WINDWARD MAUI WATERS DUE TO THE ABOVE SEAS FROM THE
NORTHWEST SWELL. THE SCA WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR SOME OF THE
ZONES ESPECIALLY THOSE NEAR ANA.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI-OAHU.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR OAHU SOUTH SHORE-
WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD
WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.


&&

$$

LAU
















000
FXHW60 PHFO 200333 AAB
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
530 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AREAS HAVE EITHER BEEN
DROPPED OR ADJUSTED. THIS UPDATE REFLECT THE CHANGES.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS.

NO LONGER IN EFFECT IS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR KAUAI CHANNEL.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW REPLACES IT.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
INCLEMENT WEATHER BROUGHT ON BY ANA WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OUT THROUGH
MONDAY. THE BIG ISLAND WILL BE UNDER A LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH
THE NEW WEEK WHILE KAUAI REMAINS UNDER A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
LIGHT TRADES SHOULD SPREAD TO OAHU BY THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS
FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. SINCE THE TRADES WILL BE
LIGHT...SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL FORM OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD
AREAS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANA WAS JUST DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM A SHORT WHILE AGO.

AT 3 PM HST HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED AT 20.7N 160.9W...OR ABOUT 130
MILES SW OF LIHUE KAUAI AND 210 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU.
ANA IS MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH.

AS ANA PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...THERE
WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. SO...STAY WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
BULLETINS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU.

IN THE MEAN TIME...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO KAUAI
COUNTY AND OAHU TO 6 PM HST MONDAY. THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE...BUT
THIS WILL ALLOW TOMORROW/S DAY CREW TO REASSESS THE SITUATION.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELED FOR MAUI COUNTY SINCE IT HAS BEEN
A RATHER QUIET DAY THERE TODAY...AND ALL LIKELIHOOD IF THERE IS ANY
FLARE UPS...IT WILL BE ISOLATED OR LOCAL. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING PERIOD.

OAHU CONTINUED TO RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SO
FAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED SPOTS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE TWO ARE MANOA LYON ARBORETUM
AT 7.21 INCHES AND WAIHEE PUMP AT 5.07 INCHES. A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS
OF INTEREST...KUNIA SUBSTATION AT 4.95 INCHES AND LUALUALEI RIGHT
BEHIND AT 4.94 INCHES. THESE TOTALS ARE THE READINGS ENDING AT 2 PM
HST. AGAIN...MAUI COUNTY HAS BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET SO FAR WITH
MINIMAL RAINS IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.

ON THE BIG ISLAND...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED IN THE HILO AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT HAS BEEN GENERALLY QUIET ELSEWHERE. WE DO
EXPECT SOME QUICK FLARE UPS ESPECIALLY THE KONA AND KAU AREAS OF THE
ISLAND THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

PEOPLE IN HAWAII SHOULD REMAIN WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST
BULLETINS AND FORECASTS WHICH ARE AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTPA25 PHFO AND TCMCP5. PUBLIC
ADVISORIES UNDER HEADERS WTPA35 PHFO AND TCPCP5...AND DISCUSSIONS
UNDER HEADERS WTPA45 PHFO AND TCDCP5. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN
ALSO BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL STORM ANA LOCAL STATEMENT UNDER
HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OF ANA ON TUESDAY. THE
WIND FLOW WILL PRIMARILY BE SOUTHEAST EXCEPT FOR LIGHT TRADES FROM
MAUI EASTWARD. STRONGER TRADES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN AREA WIDE
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS SAID...THE ISLANDS ARE PRONE TO HAVE
DAYTIME SEA BREEZES RESULTING IN AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND A SHOWER OR
TWO  OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND THE KONA
SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE GRIDS MAY NOT REFLECT THIS AND WILL BE
WORKED ON OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ANA CONTINUES TO BRING DEEP LAYERED CLOUDS TO THE REGION FROM
MOLOKAI AND LANAI TO THE WATERS NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE LATER THIS EVENING OVER MOLOKAI AND
LANAI...BUT WILL LIKELY PREVAIL OVER OAHU AND KAUAI THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

THE LAYERED CLOUDS...SHRA/TSRA HAVE PROMPTED AN AIRMET FOR
ICING...FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION...AND FOR TURBULENCE. EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

SEE TC SIGMET QUEBEC SERIES FOR HURRICANE ANA.


&&

.MARINE...
ANA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EXTREME SOUTH END OF THE LEEWARD
WATERS OF KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE KAUAI CHANNEL WHERE OCEAN
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS...LARGE SWELLS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER EXPOSED AREAS. THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR KAUAI/S NORTHWEST AND WINDWARD WATERS WAS LOWERED
EARLIER AT AROUND NOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THESE TWO ZONES. THE SITUATION IS FLUID AND CHANGING HOWEVER.
SO...STAY WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BULLETINS
FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN HONOLULU.

THE SWELL FROM ANA WILL KEEP THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY GOING FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE SOUTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU. THERE IS ALSO
AN ABOVE NORMAL NORTHWEST SWELL THAT WILL KEEP THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH AND WEST SHORES OF OAHU AND MOLOKAI
AND THE NORTH FACING SHORES OF KAUAI THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM FOR THE WATERS FROM
MAUI COUNTY WESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.

ALL PEOPLE IN HAWAII SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE LATEST BULLETINS AND
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN HONOLULU.

FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS...PLEASE
REFER TO THE HURRICANE ANA LOCAL STATEMENT AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

ELSEWHERE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA / FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF
THE BIG ISLAND HAS BEEN CANCELED. HOWEVER...THE SCA IS NOW IN PLACE
FOR THE WINDWARD MAUI WATERS DUE TO THE ABOVE SEAS FROM THE
NORTHWEST SWELL. THE SCA WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR SOME OF THE
ZONES ESPECIALLY THOSE NEAR ANA.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI-OAHU.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR OAHU SOUTH SHORE-
WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD
WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.


&&

$$

LAU















000
FXHW60 PHFO 200313 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
505 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NORTHWEST SWELL AND SURF HAVE RISEN AT THE HILO BUOY TO ADVISORY
LEVEL. THUS THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH
FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND UNTIL 6 AM HST.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
INCLEMENT WEATHER BROUGHT ON BY ANA WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OUT THROUGH
MONDAY. THE BIG ISLAND WILL BE UNDER A LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH
THE NEW WEEK WHILE KAUAI REMAINS UNDER A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
LIGHT TRADES SHOULD SPREAD TO OAHU BY THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS
FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. SINCE THE TRADES WILL BE
LIGHT...SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL FORM OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD
AREAS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANA WAS JUST DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM A SHORT WHILE AGO.

AT 3 PM HST HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED AT 20.7N 160.9W...OR ABOUT 130
MILES SW OF LIHUE KAUAI AND 210 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU.
ANA IS MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH.

AS ANA PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...THERE
WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. SO...STAY WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
BULLETINS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU.

IN THE MEAN TIME...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO KAUAI
COUNTY AND OAHU TO 6 PM HST MONDAY. THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE...BUT
THIS WILL ALLOW TOMORROW/S DAY CREW TO REASSESS THE SITUATION.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELED FOR MAUI COUNTY SINCE IT HAS BEEN
A RATHER QUIET DAY THERE TODAY...AND ALL LIKELIHOOD IF THERE IS ANY
FLARE UPS...IT WILL BE ISOLATED OR LOCAL. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING PERIOD.

OAHU CONTINUED TO RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SO
FAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED SPOTS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE TWO ARE MANOA LYON ARBORETUM
AT 7.21 INCHES AND WAIHEE PUMP AT 5.07 INCHES. A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS
OF INTEREST...KUNIA SUBSTATION AT 4.95 INCHES AND LUALUALEI RIGHT
BEHIND AT 4.94 INCHES. THESE TOTALS ARE THE READINGS ENDING AT 2 PM
HST. AGAIN...MAUI COUNTY HAS BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET SO FAR WITH
MINIMAL RAINS IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.

ON THE BIG ISLAND...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED IN THE HILO AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT HAS BEEN GENERALLY QUIET ELSEWHERE. WE DO
EXPECT SOME QUICK FLARE UPS ESPECIALLY THE KONA AND KAU AREAS OF THE
ISLAND THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

PEOPLE IN HAWAII SHOULD REMAIN WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST
BULLETINS AND FORECASTS WHICH ARE AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTPA25 PHFO AND TCMCP5. PUBLIC
ADVISORIES UNDER HEADERS WTPA35 PHFO AND TCPCP5...AND DISCUSSIONS
UNDER HEADERS WTPA45 PHFO AND TCDCP5. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN
ALSO BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL STORM ANA LOCAL STATEMENT UNDER
HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OF ANA ON TUESDAY. THE
WIND FLOW WILL PRIMARILY BE SOUTHEAST EXCEPT FOR LIGHT TRADES FROM
MAUI EASTWARD. STRONGER TRADES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN AREA WIDE
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS SAID...THE ISLANDS ARE PRONE TO HAVE
DAYTIME SEA BREEZES RESULTING IN AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND A SHOWER OR
TWO  OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND THE KONA
SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE GRIDS MAY NOT REFLECT THIS AND WILL BE
WORKED ON OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ANA CONTINUES TO BRING DEEP LAYERED CLOUDS TO THE REGION FROM
MOLOKAI AND LANAI TO THE WATERS NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE LATER THIS EVENING OVER MOLOKAI AND
LANAI...BUT WILL LIKELY PREVAIL OVER OAHU AND KAUAI THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

THE LAYERED CLOUDS...SHRA/TSRA HAVE PROMPTED AN AIRMET FOR
ICING...FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION...AND FOR TURBULENCE. EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

SEE TC SIGMET QUEBEC SERIES FOR HURRICANE ANA.


&&

.MARINE...
ANA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EXTREME SOUTH END OF THE LEEWARD
WATERS OF KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE KAUAI CHANNEL WHERE OCEAN
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS...LARGE SWELLS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER EXPOSED AREAS. THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR KAUAI/S NORTHWEST AND WINDWARD WATERS WAS LOWERED
EARLIER AT AROUND NOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THESE TWO ZONES. THE SITUATION IS FLUID AND CHANGING HOWEVER.
SO...STAY WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BULLETINS
FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN HONOLULU.

THE SWELL FROM ANA WILL KEEP THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY GOING FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE SOUTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU. THERE IS ALSO
AN ABOVE NORMAL NORTHWEST SWELL THAT WILL KEEP THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH AND WEST SHORES OF OAHU AND MOLOKAI
AND THE NORTH FACING SHORES OF KAUAI THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM FOR THE WATERS FROM
MAUI COUNTY WESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.

ALL PEOPLE IN HAWAII SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE LATEST BULLETINS AND
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN HONOLULU.

FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS...PLEASE
REFER TO THE HURRICANE ANA LOCAL STATEMENT AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

ELSEWHERE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA / FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF
THE BIG ISLAND HAS BEEN CANCELED. HOWEVER...THE SCA IS NOW IN PLACE
FOR THE WINDWARD MAUI WATERS DUE TO THE ABOVE SEAS FROM THE
NORTHWEST SWELL. THE SCA WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR SOME OF THE
ZONES ESPECIALLY THOSE NEAR ANA.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI-OAHU.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR OAHU SOUTH SHORE-
WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD
WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR KAUAI CHANNEL.

HURRICANE WARNING FOR KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD
WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

LAU














000
FXHW60 PHFO 200313 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
505 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NORTHWEST SWELL AND SURF HAVE RISEN AT THE HILO BUOY TO ADVISORY
LEVEL. THUS THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH
FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND UNTIL 6 AM HST.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
INCLEMENT WEATHER BROUGHT ON BY ANA WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OUT THROUGH
MONDAY. THE BIG ISLAND WILL BE UNDER A LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH
THE NEW WEEK WHILE KAUAI REMAINS UNDER A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
LIGHT TRADES SHOULD SPREAD TO OAHU BY THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS
FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. SINCE THE TRADES WILL BE
LIGHT...SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL FORM OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD
AREAS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANA WAS JUST DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM A SHORT WHILE AGO.

AT 3 PM HST HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED AT 20.7N 160.9W...OR ABOUT 130
MILES SW OF LIHUE KAUAI AND 210 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU.
ANA IS MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH.

AS ANA PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...THERE
WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. SO...STAY WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
BULLETINS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU.

IN THE MEAN TIME...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO KAUAI
COUNTY AND OAHU TO 6 PM HST MONDAY. THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE...BUT
THIS WILL ALLOW TOMORROW/S DAY CREW TO REASSESS THE SITUATION.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELED FOR MAUI COUNTY SINCE IT HAS BEEN
A RATHER QUIET DAY THERE TODAY...AND ALL LIKELIHOOD IF THERE IS ANY
FLARE UPS...IT WILL BE ISOLATED OR LOCAL. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING PERIOD.

OAHU CONTINUED TO RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SO
FAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED SPOTS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE TWO ARE MANOA LYON ARBORETUM
AT 7.21 INCHES AND WAIHEE PUMP AT 5.07 INCHES. A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS
OF INTEREST...KUNIA SUBSTATION AT 4.95 INCHES AND LUALUALEI RIGHT
BEHIND AT 4.94 INCHES. THESE TOTALS ARE THE READINGS ENDING AT 2 PM
HST. AGAIN...MAUI COUNTY HAS BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET SO FAR WITH
MINIMAL RAINS IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.

ON THE BIG ISLAND...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED IN THE HILO AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT HAS BEEN GENERALLY QUIET ELSEWHERE. WE DO
EXPECT SOME QUICK FLARE UPS ESPECIALLY THE KONA AND KAU AREAS OF THE
ISLAND THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

PEOPLE IN HAWAII SHOULD REMAIN WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST
BULLETINS AND FORECASTS WHICH ARE AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTPA25 PHFO AND TCMCP5. PUBLIC
ADVISORIES UNDER HEADERS WTPA35 PHFO AND TCPCP5...AND DISCUSSIONS
UNDER HEADERS WTPA45 PHFO AND TCDCP5. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN
ALSO BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL STORM ANA LOCAL STATEMENT UNDER
HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OF ANA ON TUESDAY. THE
WIND FLOW WILL PRIMARILY BE SOUTHEAST EXCEPT FOR LIGHT TRADES FROM
MAUI EASTWARD. STRONGER TRADES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN AREA WIDE
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS SAID...THE ISLANDS ARE PRONE TO HAVE
DAYTIME SEA BREEZES RESULTING IN AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND A SHOWER OR
TWO  OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND THE KONA
SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE GRIDS MAY NOT REFLECT THIS AND WILL BE
WORKED ON OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ANA CONTINUES TO BRING DEEP LAYERED CLOUDS TO THE REGION FROM
MOLOKAI AND LANAI TO THE WATERS NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE LATER THIS EVENING OVER MOLOKAI AND
LANAI...BUT WILL LIKELY PREVAIL OVER OAHU AND KAUAI THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

THE LAYERED CLOUDS...SHRA/TSRA HAVE PROMPTED AN AIRMET FOR
ICING...FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION...AND FOR TURBULENCE. EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

SEE TC SIGMET QUEBEC SERIES FOR HURRICANE ANA.


&&

.MARINE...
ANA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EXTREME SOUTH END OF THE LEEWARD
WATERS OF KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE KAUAI CHANNEL WHERE OCEAN
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS...LARGE SWELLS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER EXPOSED AREAS. THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR KAUAI/S NORTHWEST AND WINDWARD WATERS WAS LOWERED
EARLIER AT AROUND NOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THESE TWO ZONES. THE SITUATION IS FLUID AND CHANGING HOWEVER.
SO...STAY WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BULLETINS
FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN HONOLULU.

THE SWELL FROM ANA WILL KEEP THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY GOING FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE SOUTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU. THERE IS ALSO
AN ABOVE NORMAL NORTHWEST SWELL THAT WILL KEEP THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH AND WEST SHORES OF OAHU AND MOLOKAI
AND THE NORTH FACING SHORES OF KAUAI THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM FOR THE WATERS FROM
MAUI COUNTY WESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.

ALL PEOPLE IN HAWAII SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE LATEST BULLETINS AND
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN HONOLULU.

FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS...PLEASE
REFER TO THE HURRICANE ANA LOCAL STATEMENT AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

ELSEWHERE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA / FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF
THE BIG ISLAND HAS BEEN CANCELED. HOWEVER...THE SCA IS NOW IN PLACE
FOR THE WINDWARD MAUI WATERS DUE TO THE ABOVE SEAS FROM THE
NORTHWEST SWELL. THE SCA WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR SOME OF THE
ZONES ESPECIALLY THOSE NEAR ANA.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI-OAHU.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR OAHU SOUTH SHORE-
WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD
WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR KAUAI CHANNEL.

HURRICANE WARNING FOR KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD
WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

LAU















000
FXHW60 PHFO 200233 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
435 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCLEMENT WEATHER BROUGHT ON BY ANA WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OUT THROUGH
MONDAY. THE BIG ISLAND WILL BE UNDER A LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH
THE NEW WEEK WHILE KAUAI REMAINS UNDER A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
LIGHT TRADES SHOULD SPREAD TO OAHU BY THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS
FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. SINCE THE TRADES WILL BE
LIGHT...SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL FORM OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD
AREAS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANA WAS JUST DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM A SHORT WHILE AGO.

AT 3 PM HST HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED AT 20.7N 160.9W...OR ABOUT 130
MILES SW OF LIHUE KAUAI AND 210 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU.
ANA IS MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH.

AS ANA PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...THERE
WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. SO...STAY WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
BULLETINS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU.

IN THE MEAN TIME...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO KAUAI
COUNTY AND OAHU TO 6 PM HST MONDAY. THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE...BUT
THIS WILL ALLOW TOMORROW/S DAY CREW TO REASSESS THE SITUATION.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELED FOR MAUI COUNTY SINCE IT HAS BEEN
A RATHER QUIET DAY THERE TODAY...AND ALL LIKELIHOOD IF THERE IS ANY
FLARE UPS...IT WILL BE ISOLATED OR LOCAL. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING PERIOD.

OAHU CONTINUED TO RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SO
FAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED SPOTS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE TWO ARE MANOA LYON ARBORETUM
AT 7.21 INCHES AND WAIHEE PUMP AT 5.07 INCHES. A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS
OF INTEREST...KUNIA SUBSTATION AT 4.95 INCHES AND LUALUALEI RIGHT
BEHIND AT 4.94 INCHES. THESE TOTALS ARE THE READINGS ENDING AT 2 PM
HST. AGAIN...MAUI COUNTY HAS BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET SO FAR WITH
MINIMAL RAINS IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.

ON THE BIG ISLAND...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED IN THE HILO AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT HAS BEEN GENERALLY QUIET ELSEWHERE. WE DO
EXPECT SOME QUICK FLARE UPS ESPECIALLY THE KONA AND KAU AREAS OF THE
ISLAND THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

PEOPLE IN HAWAII SHOULD REMAIN WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST
BULLETINS AND FORECASTS WHICH ARE AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTPA25 PHFO AND TCMCP5. PUBLIC
ADVISORIES UNDER HEADERS WTPA35 PHFO AND TCPCP5...AND DISCUSSIONS
UNDER HEADERS WTPA45 PHFO AND TCDCP5. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN
ALSO BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL STORM ANA LOCAL STATEMENT UNDER
HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OF ANA ON TUESDAY. THE
WIND FLOW WILL PRIMARILY BE SOUTHEAST EXCEPT FOR LIGHT TRADES FROM
MAUI EASTWARD. STRONGER TRADES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN AREA WIDE
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS SAID...THE ISLANDS ARE PRONE TO HAVE
DAYTIME SEA BREEZES RESULTING IN AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND A SHOWER OR
TWO  OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND THE KONA
SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE GRIDS MAY NOT REFLECT THIS AND WILL BE
WORKED ON OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ANA CONTINUES TO BRING DEEP LAYERED CLOUDS TO THE REGION FROM
MOLOKAI AND LANAI TO THE WATERS NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE LATER THIS EVENING OVER MOLOKAI AND
LANAI...BUT WILL LIKELY PREVAIL OVER OAHU AND KAUAI THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

THE LAYERED CLOUDS...SHRA/TSRA HAVE PROMPTED AN AIRMET FOR
ICING...FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION...AND FOR TURBULENCE. EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

SEE TC SIGMET QUEBEC SERIES FOR HURRICANE ANA.


&&

.MARINE...
ANA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EXTREME SOUTH END OF THE LEEWARD
WATERS OF KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE KAUAI CHANNEL WHERE OCEAN
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS...LARGE SWELLS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER EXPOSED AREAS. THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR KAUAI/S NORTHWEST AND WINDWARD WATERS WAS LOWERED
EARLIER AT AROUND NOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THESE TWO ZONES. THE SITUATION IS FLUID AND CHANGING HOWEVER.
SO...STAY WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BULLETINS
FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN HONOLULU.

THE SWELL FROM ANA WILL KEEP THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY GOING FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE SOUTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU. THERE IS ALSO
AN ABOVE NORMAL NORTHWEST SWELL THAT WILL KEEP THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH AND WEST SHORES OF OAHU AND MOLOKAI
AND THE NORTH FACING SHORES OF KAUAI THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM FOR THE WATERS FROM
MAUI COUNTY WESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.

ALL PEOPLE IN HAWAII SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE LATEST BULLETINS AND
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN HONOLULU.

FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS...PLEASE
REFER TO THE HURRICANE ANA LOCAL STATEMENT AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

ELSEWHERE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA / FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF
THE BIG ISLAND HAS BEEN CANCELED. HOWEVER...THE SCA IS NOW IN PLACE
FOR THE WINDWARD MAUI WATERS DUE TO THE ABOVE SEAS FROM THE
NORTHWEST SWELL. THE SCA WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR SOME OF THE
ZONES ESPECIALLY THOSE NEAR ANA.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI-OAHU.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR OAHU SOUTH SHORE-
WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD
WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR KAUAI CHANNEL.

HURRICANE WARNING FOR KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD
WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.


&&

$$

LAU













000
FXHW60 PHFO 200223
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCLEMENT WEATHER BROUGHT ON BY ANA WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OUT THROUGH
MONDAY. THE BIG ISLAND WILL BE UNDER A LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH
THE NEW WEEK WHILE KAUAI REMAINS UNDER A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
LIGHT TRADES SHOULD SPREAD TO OAHU BY THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS
FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. SINCE THE TRADES WILL BE
LIGHT...SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL FORM OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD
AREAS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANA WAS JUST DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE A SHOT WHILE AGO.

AT 3 PM HST HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED AT 20.7N 160.9W...OR ABOUT 130
MILES SW OF LIHUE KAUAI AND 210 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU.
ANA IS MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH.

AS ANA PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...THERE
WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. SO...STAY WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
BULLETINS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU.

IN THE MEAN TIME...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO KAUAI
COUNTY AND OAHU TO 6 PM HST MONDAY. THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE...BUT
THIS WILL ALLOW TOMORROW/S DAY CREW TO REASSESS THE SITUATION.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELED FOR MAUI COUNTY SINCE IT HAS BEEN
A RATHER QUIET DAY THERE TODAY...AND ALL LIKELIHOOD IF THERE IS ANY
FLARE UPS...IT WILL BE ISOLATED OR LOCAL. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING PERIOD.

OAHU CONTINUED TO RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SO
FAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED SPOTS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE TWO ARE MANOA LYON ARBORETUM
AT 7.21 INCHES AND WAIHEE PUMP AT 5.07 INCHES. A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS
OF INTEREST...KUNIA SUBSTATION AT 4.95 INCHES AND LUALUALEI RIGHT
BEHIND AT 4.94 INCHES. THESE TOTALS ARE THE READINGS ENDING AT 2 PM
HST. AGAIN...MAUI COUNTY HAS BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET SO FAR WITH
MINIMAL RAINS IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.

ON THE BIG ISLAND...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED IN THE HILO AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT HAS BEEN GENERALLY QUIET ELSEWHERE. WE DO
EXPECT SOME QUICK FLARE UPS ESPECIALLY THE KONA AND KAU AREAS OF THE
ISLAND THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

PEOPLE IN HAWAII SHOULD REMAIN WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST
BULLETINS AND FORECASTS WHICH ARE AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTPA25 PHFO AND TCMCP5. PUBLIC
ADVISORIES UNDER HEADERS WTPA35 PHFO AND TCPCP5...AND DISCUSSIONS
UNDER HEADERS WTPA45 PHFO AND TCDCP5. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN
ALSO BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL STORM ANA LOCAL STATEMENT UNDER
HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OF ANA ON TUESDAY. THE
WIND FLOW WILL PRIMARILY BE SOUTHEAST EXCEPT FOR LIGHT TRADES FROM
MAUI EASTWARD. STRONGER TRADES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN AREA WIDE
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS SAID...THE ISLANDS ARE PRONE TO HAVE
DAYTIME SEA BREEZES RESULTING IN AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND A SHOWER OR
TWO  OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND THE KONA
SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE GRIDS MAY NOT REFLECT THIS AND WILL BE
WORKED ON OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ANA CONTINUES TO BRING DEEP LAYERED CLOUDS TO THE REGION FROM
MOLOKAI AND LANAI TO THE WATERS NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE LATER THIS EVENING OVER MOLOKAI AND
LANAI...BUT WILL LIKELY PREVAIL OVER OAHU AND KAUAI THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

THE LAYERED CLOUDS...SHRA/TSRA HAVE PROMPTED AN AIRMET FOR
ICING...FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION...AND FOR TURBULENCE. EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

SEE TC SIGMET QUEBEC SERIES FOR HURRICANE ANA.


&&

.MARINE...
ANA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EXTREME SOUTH END OF THE LEEWARD
WATERS OF KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE KAUAI CHANNEL WHERE OCEAN
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS...LARGE SWELLS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER EXPOSED AREAS. THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR KAUAI/S NORTHWEST AND WINDWARD WATERS WAS LOWERED
EARLIER AT AROUND NOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THESE TWO ZONES. THE SITUATION IS FLUID AND CHANGING HOWEVER.
SO...STAY WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BULLETINS
FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN HONOLULU.

THE SWELL FROM ANA WILL KEEP THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY GOING FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE SOUTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU. THERE IS ALSO
AN ABOVE NORMAL NORTHWEST SWELL THAT WILL KEEP THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH AND WEST SHORES OF OAHU AND MOLOKAI
AND THE NORTH FACING SHORES OF KAUAI THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM FOR THE WATERS FROM
MAUI COUNTY WESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.

ALL PEOPLE IN HAWAII SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE LATEST BULLETINS AND
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN HONOLULU.

FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS...PLEASE
REFER TO THE HURRICANE ANA LOCAL STATEMENT AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

ELSEWHERE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA / FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF
THE BIG ISLAND HAS BEEN CANCELED. HOWEVER...THE SCA IS NOW IN PLACE
FOR THE WINDWARD MAUI WATERS DUE TO THE ABOVE SEAS FROM THE
NORTHWEST SWELL. THE SCA WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR SOME OF THE
ZONES ESPECIALLY THOSE NEAR ANA.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI-OAHU.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR OAHU SOUTH SHORE-
WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD
WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR KAUAI CHANNEL.

HURRICANE WARNING FOR KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD
WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.


&&

$$

LAU













000
FXHW60 PHFO 192029
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1015 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCLEMENT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ANA WILL CONTINUE
STATEWIDE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

STAY WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BULLETINS FROM THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
HONOLULU. A MORE STABLE AND DRIER TREND WILL BEGIN ESTABLISHING IN
THE WAKE OF ANA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 8 AM HST HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED AT 20.6N 159.7W...OR ABOUT 100
MILES S OF LIHUE IN KAUAI. ANA IS SLOWLY MOVING WNW AT ABOUT 5 MPH
AS IT BRINGS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF ANA ARE 80 MPH.

AS ANA PULLS VERY SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...THERE
WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. SO...STAY WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
BULLETINS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU.

IN THE MEAN TIME...RAINY WEATHER WILL BE EASING OVER KAUAI COUNTY
AS WE APPROACH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO FAR MOST OF THE HEAVY WEATHER
HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER OAHU...AND SOME HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SPRUNG UP ALONG A PART OF WINDWARD BIG ISLAND FROM
OOKALA TO NEAR MOUNTAIN VIEW...PROMPTING A FLOOD ADVISORY THAT WAS
CANCELED A SHORT WHILE AGO.

MAUI COUNTY IS QUIET SO FAR...BUT THE AIR MASS IS UNSTABLE THERE
AND VERY CAPABLE OF SETTING OFF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. AS ANA CONTINUES TO
MOVE FURTHER AWAY...WE ANTICIPATE IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER THIS
COUNTY TONIGHT. WE DO NOT EXPECT AN EXTENSION OF THE FLASH WATCH
FOR MAUI COUNTY AS OF NOW. THIS THOUGHT MAY CHANGE HOWEVER SHOULD
SHOWERS AND STORMS PICKS UP THIS AFTERNOON.

AS FOR OAHU...CLEARING APPEARS TO BE SLOW RIGHT NOW WITH THAT AREA
OF DENSE CLOUDS AND RAIN PRETTY MUCH STATIONARY OVER THE ISLAND.
THE EXTENSION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6
PM THIS EVENING AND IS SERIOUSLY BEING CONSIDERED FOR AN EXTENSION
TO 6 AM MONDAY MORNING.

THE FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN UPDATED EARLIER TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WINDWARD BIG ISLAND FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. THE PACKAGE WILL BE UPDATED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE BIG
ISLAND FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

PEOPLE IN HAWAII SHOULD REMAIN WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST
BULLETINS AND FORECASTS WHICH ARE AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTPA25 PHFO AND TCMCP5. PUBLIC
ADVISORIES UNDER HEADERS WTPA35 PHFO AND TCPCP5...AND DISCUSSIONS
UNDER HEADERS WTPA45 PHFO AND TCDCP5. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN
ALSO BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL STORM ANA LOCAL STATEMENT UNDER
HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MAUI COUNTY...OAHU AND
KAUAI COUNTY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BIG ISLAND IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED FAR NNE OF
THE ALOHA STATE AND HURRICANE ANA REMAIN TIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS OVER KAUAI AND OAHU.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS ANA MOVES FURTHER WAY
FROM THE MAIN ISLANDS...EXPECT A RETURN TO A TYPICAL TRADE WIND
PATTERN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASINGLY STABLE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
ANA CONTINUES TO BRING DEEP LAYERED CLOUDS TO THE REGION FROM MAUI
TO THE WATERS NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS
MAY IMPROVE LATER TODAY OVER MAUI...BUT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL OVER OAHU AND KAUAI THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE LAYERED CLOUDS...SHRA/TSRA HAVE PROMPTED AN AIRMET FOR
ICING...FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION...AND FOR TURBULENCE. EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

SEE TC SIGMET QUEBEC SERIES FOR HURRICANE ANA.


&&

.MARINE...
HURRICANE ANA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF MAINLY
KAUAI THIS AFTERNOON WHERE OCEAN CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS
DUE TO STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...LARGE SWELLS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER
EXPOSED AREAS.

THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE WEST SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND AND
SOUTH FACING SHORES OF MOLOKAI MAUI LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE WILL BE
LOWERED SHORTLY. THE LANAI BUOY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DOWN TREND WHERE
IT IS SAFE ENOUGH TO CALL OFF THE ADVISORY. READINGS FROM THE
BARBERS POINT BUOY ARE STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU.

OUTSIDE OF KAUAI...AN ELEVATED NORTHWEST SWELL WILL MAINTAIN THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF OAHU AND
MOLOKAI...AND THE NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI. WE WILL BE MONITORING
CLOSELY THE HILO BAY BUOY IF A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NEEDED THERE.
SURF COMPUTES SUGGESTS SURF JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE SLIGHT RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM NOW COVERS ALL WATERS SURROUNDING
THE BIG ISLAND FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ALL PEOPLE IN HAWAII SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE LATEST BULLETINS AND
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN HONOLULU.

FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS...PLEASE
REFER TO THE HURRICANE ANA LOCAL STATEMENT AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

ELSEWHERE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA /REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS NOT UNDER A HURRICANE WARNING...TROPICAL STORM WARNING OR
WATCH. WE WILL REASSESSES THE NEED FOR THE SCA FOR WATERS SOUTH OF
THE BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI-
OAHU-MOLOKAI-LANAI-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR OAHU SOUTH SHORE-
WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD
WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR KAUAI CHANNEL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD
WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LAU
MARINE...LAU
AVIATION...BALLARD










000
FXHW60 PHFO 192029
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1015 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCLEMENT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ANA WILL CONTINUE
STATEWIDE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

STAY WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BULLETINS FROM THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
HONOLULU. A MORE STABLE AND DRIER TREND WILL BEGIN ESTABLISHING IN
THE WAKE OF ANA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 8 AM HST HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED AT 20.6N 159.7W...OR ABOUT 100
MILES S OF LIHUE IN KAUAI. ANA IS SLOWLY MOVING WNW AT ABOUT 5 MPH
AS IT BRINGS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF ANA ARE 80 MPH.

AS ANA PULLS VERY SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...THERE
WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. SO...STAY WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
BULLETINS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU.

IN THE MEAN TIME...RAINY WEATHER WILL BE EASING OVER KAUAI COUNTY
AS WE APPROACH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO FAR MOST OF THE HEAVY WEATHER
HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER OAHU...AND SOME HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SPRUNG UP ALONG A PART OF WINDWARD BIG ISLAND FROM
OOKALA TO NEAR MOUNTAIN VIEW...PROMPTING A FLOOD ADVISORY THAT WAS
CANCELED A SHORT WHILE AGO.

MAUI COUNTY IS QUIET SO FAR...BUT THE AIR MASS IS UNSTABLE THERE
AND VERY CAPABLE OF SETTING OFF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. AS ANA CONTINUES TO
MOVE FURTHER AWAY...WE ANTICIPATE IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER THIS
COUNTY TONIGHT. WE DO NOT EXPECT AN EXTENSION OF THE FLASH WATCH
FOR MAUI COUNTY AS OF NOW. THIS THOUGHT MAY CHANGE HOWEVER SHOULD
SHOWERS AND STORMS PICKS UP THIS AFTERNOON.

AS FOR OAHU...CLEARING APPEARS TO BE SLOW RIGHT NOW WITH THAT AREA
OF DENSE CLOUDS AND RAIN PRETTY MUCH STATIONARY OVER THE ISLAND.
THE EXTENSION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6
PM THIS EVENING AND IS SERIOUSLY BEING CONSIDERED FOR AN EXTENSION
TO 6 AM MONDAY MORNING.

THE FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN UPDATED EARLIER TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WINDWARD BIG ISLAND FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. THE PACKAGE WILL BE UPDATED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE BIG
ISLAND FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

PEOPLE IN HAWAII SHOULD REMAIN WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST
BULLETINS AND FORECASTS WHICH ARE AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTPA25 PHFO AND TCMCP5. PUBLIC
ADVISORIES UNDER HEADERS WTPA35 PHFO AND TCPCP5...AND DISCUSSIONS
UNDER HEADERS WTPA45 PHFO AND TCDCP5. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN
ALSO BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL STORM ANA LOCAL STATEMENT UNDER
HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MAUI COUNTY...OAHU AND
KAUAI COUNTY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BIG ISLAND IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED FAR NNE OF
THE ALOHA STATE AND HURRICANE ANA REMAIN TIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS OVER KAUAI AND OAHU.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS ANA MOVES FURTHER WAY
FROM THE MAIN ISLANDS...EXPECT A RETURN TO A TYPICAL TRADE WIND
PATTERN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASINGLY STABLE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
ANA CONTINUES TO BRING DEEP LAYERED CLOUDS TO THE REGION FROM MAUI
TO THE WATERS NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS
MAY IMPROVE LATER TODAY OVER MAUI...BUT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL OVER OAHU AND KAUAI THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE LAYERED CLOUDS...SHRA/TSRA HAVE PROMPTED AN AIRMET FOR
ICING...FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION...AND FOR TURBULENCE. EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

SEE TC SIGMET QUEBEC SERIES FOR HURRICANE ANA.


&&

.MARINE...
HURRICANE ANA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF MAINLY
KAUAI THIS AFTERNOON WHERE OCEAN CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS
DUE TO STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...LARGE SWELLS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER
EXPOSED AREAS.

THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE WEST SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND AND
SOUTH FACING SHORES OF MOLOKAI MAUI LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE WILL BE
LOWERED SHORTLY. THE LANAI BUOY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DOWN TREND WHERE
IT IS SAFE ENOUGH TO CALL OFF THE ADVISORY. READINGS FROM THE
BARBERS POINT BUOY ARE STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU.

OUTSIDE OF KAUAI...AN ELEVATED NORTHWEST SWELL WILL MAINTAIN THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF OAHU AND
MOLOKAI...AND THE NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI. WE WILL BE MONITORING
CLOSELY THE HILO BAY BUOY IF A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NEEDED THERE.
SURF COMPUTES SUGGESTS SURF JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE SLIGHT RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM NOW COVERS ALL WATERS SURROUNDING
THE BIG ISLAND FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ALL PEOPLE IN HAWAII SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE LATEST BULLETINS AND
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN HONOLULU.

FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS...PLEASE
REFER TO THE HURRICANE ANA LOCAL STATEMENT AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

ELSEWHERE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA /REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS NOT UNDER A HURRICANE WARNING...TROPICAL STORM WARNING OR
WATCH. WE WILL REASSESSES THE NEED FOR THE SCA FOR WATERS SOUTH OF
THE BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI-
OAHU-MOLOKAI-LANAI-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR OAHU SOUTH SHORE-
WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD
WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR KAUAI CHANNEL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD
WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LAU
MARINE...LAU
AVIATION...BALLARD









000
FXHW60 PHFO 191821
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE ANA IS BRINGING RAIN...SOMETIMES HEAVY...STRONG WINDS AND
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HOWEVER...OAHU IS NO LONGER UNDER
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. STAY WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND BULLETINS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU. A MORE STABLE AND DRIER TREND
WILL BEGIN ESTABLISHING IN THE WAKE OF ANA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 5 AM HST HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED AT 20.6N 159.7W...OR ABOUT 100
MILES S OF LIHUE IN KAUAI. ANA IS SLOWLY MOVING WNW AT ABOUT 5 MPH
AS IT BRINGS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF ANA ARE 80 MPH.

A LARGE RAINBAND HAS BEEN HITTING OAHU AND MUCH OF MAUI COUNTY
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS...PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. THIS SCENARIO
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION
OF ANA WILL ALLOW FOR OAHU AND SURROUNDING WATERS TO REMAIN INSIDE
THIS RAINBAND.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE KAUAI
CHANNEL WATERS AND E KAUAI. SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF ANA WILL LIKELY BRUSH AGAINST NIIHAU AND MAYBE
EVEN W KAUAI TODAY. THEREFORE...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR KAUAI COUNTY. ALSO...A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR THE KAUAI LEEWARD COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION...THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR OAHU HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

PEOPLE IN HAWAII SHOULD REMAIN WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST
BULLETINS AND FORECASTS WHICH ARE AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTPA25 PHFO AND TCMCP5. PUBLIC
ADVISORIES UNDER HEADERS WTPA35 PHFO AND TCPCP5...AND DISCUSSIONS
UNDER HEADERS WTPA45 PHFO AND TCDCP5. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN
ALSO BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL STORM ANA LOCAL STATEMENT UNDER
HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MAUI COUNTY...OAHU AND
KAUAI COUNTY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BIG ISLAND IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT. FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS...EXPECT PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE LARGE RAINBANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANA CONTINUE TO REACH THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM THE S.

PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED FAR NNE OF
THE ALOHA STATE AND HURRICANE ANA REMAIN TIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS OVER KAUAI AND OAHU. WINDS AT THE BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS ARE ALSO SUBSIDING...AND ARE NOW BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SUMMITS IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS ANA MOVES W AND NW OF THE
AREA...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SE WITH A GENERAL DRYING
TREND AND INCREASINGLY STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
HURRICANE ANA IS AROUND 100 MILES SOUTH OF KAUAI THIS MORNING.
OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS WITH TOPS TO 52 KFT ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY COVERS THE WESTERN MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE LAYERED
CLOUDS ARE INDUCING MODERATE RIME ICING OVER THE WESTERN
ISLANDS...AND AIRMET ZULU IS IN EFFECT.

MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS STRATIFORM...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN WILL PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. ALL TERMINALS
MAY EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN PASSING
SHOWERS. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC IS POSTED FROM KAUAI TO MAUI AND
AIRMET TANGO IS POSTED FOR LOW LEVEL TURB IN THE LEE OF THE TERRAIN
FOR ALL ISLANDS.

EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS WITH LOW
VIS/CEILINGS...ISOL THUNDERSTORMS...AND LAYERED CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
TODAY AS ANA MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST NORTHWEST.

FOLLOW TC SIGMET QUEBEC SERIES FOR HURRICANE ANA.

&&

.MARINE...
HURRICANE ANA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM EAST TO WEST AS ANA CONTINUES MOVING
WESTWARD SOUTH OF KAUAI. OCEAN CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...
LARGE SWELLS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER EXPOSED AREAS. ELEVATED SURF WILL
OCCUR OVER EXPOSED SHORELINES...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH A SOUTHERLY
EXPOSURE. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PERSIST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALL PEOPLE IN HAWAII SHOULD
CLOSELY FOLLOW THE LATEST BULLETINS AND FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN HONOLULU.

FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS...PLEASE
REFER TO THE HURRICANE ANA LOCAL STATEMENT AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

ELSEWHERE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
NOT UNDER A HURRICANE WARNING...TROPICAL STORM WARNING OR WATCH. A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU AND
MAUI COUNTY...AND FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND. ALSO...A
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PEAK LATER TODAY...WITH SURF HEIGHTS REACHING
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG MOST NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...THE NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF OAHU AND MOLOKAI...AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI
ARE INCLUDED IN THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY. THIS SWELL WILL SHIFT TO A
MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION...AND WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH TUESDAY.
A NEW SMALL NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI-OAHU-
MOLOKAI-LANAI-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR THE NORTH SOUTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES OF OAHU AND MOLOKAI...NORTH AND SOUTH FACING
SHORES OF MAUI...WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND SOUTH
FACING SHORES OF LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE.

HURRICANE WARNING FOR KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD
WATERS.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR OAHU WINDWARD
WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY
LEEWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...REYNES
MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...FOSTER







000
FXHW60 PHFO 191821
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE ANA IS BRINGING RAIN...SOMETIMES HEAVY...STRONG WINDS AND
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HOWEVER...OAHU IS NO LONGER UNDER
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. STAY WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND BULLETINS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU. A MORE STABLE AND DRIER TREND
WILL BEGIN ESTABLISHING IN THE WAKE OF ANA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 5 AM HST HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED AT 20.6N 159.7W...OR ABOUT 100
MILES S OF LIHUE IN KAUAI. ANA IS SLOWLY MOVING WNW AT ABOUT 5 MPH
AS IT BRINGS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF ANA ARE 80 MPH.

A LARGE RAINBAND HAS BEEN HITTING OAHU AND MUCH OF MAUI COUNTY
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS...PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. THIS SCENARIO
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION
OF ANA WILL ALLOW FOR OAHU AND SURROUNDING WATERS TO REMAIN INSIDE
THIS RAINBAND.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE KAUAI
CHANNEL WATERS AND E KAUAI. SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF ANA WILL LIKELY BRUSH AGAINST NIIHAU AND MAYBE
EVEN W KAUAI TODAY. THEREFORE...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR KAUAI COUNTY. ALSO...A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR THE KAUAI LEEWARD COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION...THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR OAHU HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

PEOPLE IN HAWAII SHOULD REMAIN WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST
BULLETINS AND FORECASTS WHICH ARE AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTPA25 PHFO AND TCMCP5. PUBLIC
ADVISORIES UNDER HEADERS WTPA35 PHFO AND TCPCP5...AND DISCUSSIONS
UNDER HEADERS WTPA45 PHFO AND TCDCP5. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN
ALSO BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL STORM ANA LOCAL STATEMENT UNDER
HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MAUI COUNTY...OAHU AND
KAUAI COUNTY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BIG ISLAND IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT. FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS...EXPECT PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE LARGE RAINBANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANA CONTINUE TO REACH THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM THE S.

PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED FAR NNE OF
THE ALOHA STATE AND HURRICANE ANA REMAIN TIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS OVER KAUAI AND OAHU. WINDS AT THE BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS ARE ALSO SUBSIDING...AND ARE NOW BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SUMMITS IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS ANA MOVES W AND NW OF THE
AREA...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SE WITH A GENERAL DRYING
TREND AND INCREASINGLY STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
HURRICANE ANA IS AROUND 100 MILES SOUTH OF KAUAI THIS MORNING.
OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS WITH TOPS TO 52 KFT ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY COVERS THE WESTERN MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE LAYERED
CLOUDS ARE INDUCING MODERATE RIME ICING OVER THE WESTERN
ISLANDS...AND AIRMET ZULU IS IN EFFECT.

MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS STRATIFORM...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN WILL PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. ALL TERMINALS
MAY EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN PASSING
SHOWERS. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC IS POSTED FROM KAUAI TO MAUI AND
AIRMET TANGO IS POSTED FOR LOW LEVEL TURB IN THE LEE OF THE TERRAIN
FOR ALL ISLANDS.

EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS WITH LOW
VIS/CEILINGS...ISOL THUNDERSTORMS...AND LAYERED CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
TODAY AS ANA MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST NORTHWEST.

FOLLOW TC SIGMET QUEBEC SERIES FOR HURRICANE ANA.

&&

.MARINE...
HURRICANE ANA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM EAST TO WEST AS ANA CONTINUES MOVING
WESTWARD SOUTH OF KAUAI. OCEAN CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...
LARGE SWELLS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER EXPOSED AREAS. ELEVATED SURF WILL
OCCUR OVER EXPOSED SHORELINES...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH A SOUTHERLY
EXPOSURE. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PERSIST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALL PEOPLE IN HAWAII SHOULD
CLOSELY FOLLOW THE LATEST BULLETINS AND FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN HONOLULU.

FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS...PLEASE
REFER TO THE HURRICANE ANA LOCAL STATEMENT AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

ELSEWHERE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
NOT UNDER A HURRICANE WARNING...TROPICAL STORM WARNING OR WATCH. A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU AND
MAUI COUNTY...AND FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND. ALSO...A
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PEAK LATER TODAY...WITH SURF HEIGHTS REACHING
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG MOST NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...THE NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF OAHU AND MOLOKAI...AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI
ARE INCLUDED IN THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY. THIS SWELL WILL SHIFT TO A
MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION...AND WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH TUESDAY.
A NEW SMALL NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI-OAHU-
MOLOKAI-LANAI-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR THE NORTH SOUTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES OF OAHU AND MOLOKAI...NORTH AND SOUTH FACING
SHORES OF MAUI...WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND SOUTH
FACING SHORES OF LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE.

HURRICANE WARNING FOR KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD
WATERS.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR OAHU WINDWARD
WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY
LEEWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...REYNES
MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...FOSTER








000
FXHW60 PHFO 191521 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
515 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
HURRICANE ANA INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED FROM THE LATEST BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU AT 5 AM
HST. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS HAS
BEEN REPLACED BY A HURRICANE WARNING. ALSO...THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR OAHU HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN POSTED FOR NORTH SOUTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF OAHU. THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. THE REST OF THE DISCUSSION FROM THE 4 AM HST ISSUANCE
REMAINS THE SAME.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE ANA IS BRINGING RAIN...SOMETIMES HEAVY...STRONG WINDS AND
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HOWEVER...OAHU IS NO LONGER UNDER
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. STAY WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND BULLETINS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU. A MORE STABLE AND DRIER TREND
WILL BEGIN ESTABLISHING IN THE WAKE OF ANA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 5 AM HST HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED AT 20.6N 159.7W...OR ABOUT 100
MILES S OF LIHUE IN KAUAI. ANA IS SLOWLY MOVING WNW AT ABOUT 5 MPH
AS IT BRINGS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF ANA ARE 80 MPH.

A LARGE RAINBAND HAS BEEN HITTING OAHU AND MUCH OF MAUI COUNTY
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS...PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. THIS SCENARIO
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION
OF ANA WILL ALLOW FOR OAHU AND SURROUNDING WATERS TO REMAIN INSIDE
THIS RAINBAND.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE KAUAI
CHANNEL WATERS AND E KAUAI. SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF ANA WILL LIKELY BRUSH AGAINST NIIHAU AND MAYBE
EVEN W KAUAI TODAY. THEREFORE...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR KAUAI COUNTY. ALSO...A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR THE KAUAI LEEWARD COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION...THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR OAHU HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

PEOPLE IN HAWAII SHOULD REMAIN WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST
BULLETINS AND FORECASTS WHICH ARE AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTPA25 PHFO AND TCMCP5. PUBLIC
ADVISORIES UNDER HEADERS WTPA35 PHFO AND TCPCP5...AND DISCUSSIONS
UNDER HEADERS WTPA45 PHFO AND TCDCP5. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN
ALSO BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL STORM ANA LOCAL STATEMENT UNDER
HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MAUI COUNTY...OAHU AND
KAUAI COUNTY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BIG ISLAND IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT. FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS...EXPECT PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE LARGE RAINBANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANA CONTINUE TO REACH THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM THE S.

PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED FAR NNE OF
THE ALOHA STATE AND HURRICANE ANA REMAIN TIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS OVER KAUAI AND OAHU. WINDS AT THE BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS ARE ALSO SUBSIDING...AND ARE NOW BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SUMMITS IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS ANA MOVES W AND NW OF THE
AREA...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SE WITH A GENERAL DRYING
TREND AND INCREASINGLY STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
HURRICANE ANA IS AROUND 100 MILES SOUTH OF KAUAI THIS MORNING.
OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS WITH TOPS TO 52 KFT ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY COVERS THE WESTERN MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE LAYERED
CLOUDS ARE INDUCING MODERATE RIME ICING OVER THE WESTERN
ISLANDS...AND AIRMET ZULU IS IN EFFECT.

MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS STRATIFORM...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN WILL PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. ALL TERMINALS
MAY EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN PASSING
SHOWERS. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC IS POSTED FROM KAUAI TO MAUI AND
AIRMET TANGO IS POSTED FOR LOW LEVEL TURB IN THE LEE OF THE TERRAIN
FOR ALL ISLANDS.

EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS WITH LOW
VIS/CEILINGS...ISOL THUNDERSTORMS...AND LAYERED CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
TODAY AS ANA MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST NORTHWEST.

FOLLOW TC SIGMET QUEBEC SERIES FOR HURRICANE ANA.

&&

.MARINE...
HURRICANE ANA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM EAST TO WEST AS ANA CONTINUES MOVING
WESTWARD SOUTH OF KAUAI. OCEAN CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...
LARGE SWELLS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER EXPOSED AREAS. ELEVATED SURF WILL
OCCUR OVER EXPOSED SHORELINES...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH A SOUTHERLY
EXPOSURE. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PERSIST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALL PEOPLE IN HAWAII SHOULD
CLOSELY FOLLOW THE LATEST BULLETINS AND FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN HONOLULU.

FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS...PLEASE
REFER TO THE HURRICANE ANA LOCAL STATEMENT AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

ELSEWHERE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
NOT UNDER A HURRICANE WARNING...TROPICAL STORM WARNING OR WATCH. A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU AND
MAUI COUNTY...AND FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND. ALSO...A
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PEAK LATER TODAY...WITH SURF HEIGHTS REACHING
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG MOST NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...THE NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF OAHU AND MOLOKAI...AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI
ARE INCLUDED IN THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY. THIS SWELL WILL SHIFT TO A
MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION...AND WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH TUESDAY.
A NEW SMALL NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI-OAHU-
MOLOKAI-LANAI-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR THE NORTH SOUTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES OF OAHU AND MOLOKAI...NORTH AND SOUTH FACING
SHORES OF MAUI...WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND SOUTH
FACING SHORES OF LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE.

HURRICANE WARNING FOR KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD
WATERS.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR OAHU WINDWARD
WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY
LEEWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...REYNES
MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...FOSTER








000
FXHW60 PHFO 191521 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
515 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
HURRICANE ANA INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED FROM THE LATEST BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU AT 5 AM
HST. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS HAS
BEEN REPLACED BY A HURRICANE WARNING. ALSO...THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR OAHU HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN POSTED FOR NORTH SOUTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF OAHU. THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. THE REST OF THE DISCUSSION FROM THE 4 AM HST ISSUANCE
REMAINS THE SAME.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE ANA IS BRINGING RAIN...SOMETIMES HEAVY...STRONG WINDS AND
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HOWEVER...OAHU IS NO LONGER UNDER
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. STAY WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND BULLETINS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU. A MORE STABLE AND DRIER TREND
WILL BEGIN ESTABLISHING IN THE WAKE OF ANA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 5 AM HST HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED AT 20.6N 159.7W...OR ABOUT 100
MILES S OF LIHUE IN KAUAI. ANA IS SLOWLY MOVING WNW AT ABOUT 5 MPH
AS IT BRINGS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF ANA ARE 80 MPH.

A LARGE RAINBAND HAS BEEN HITTING OAHU AND MUCH OF MAUI COUNTY
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS...PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. THIS SCENARIO
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION
OF ANA WILL ALLOW FOR OAHU AND SURROUNDING WATERS TO REMAIN INSIDE
THIS RAINBAND.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE KAUAI
CHANNEL WATERS AND E KAUAI. SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF ANA WILL LIKELY BRUSH AGAINST NIIHAU AND MAYBE
EVEN W KAUAI TODAY. THEREFORE...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR KAUAI COUNTY. ALSO...A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR THE KAUAI LEEWARD COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION...THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR OAHU HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

PEOPLE IN HAWAII SHOULD REMAIN WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST
BULLETINS AND FORECASTS WHICH ARE AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTPA25 PHFO AND TCMCP5. PUBLIC
ADVISORIES UNDER HEADERS WTPA35 PHFO AND TCPCP5...AND DISCUSSIONS
UNDER HEADERS WTPA45 PHFO AND TCDCP5. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN
ALSO BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL STORM ANA LOCAL STATEMENT UNDER
HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MAUI COUNTY...OAHU AND
KAUAI COUNTY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BIG ISLAND IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT. FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS...EXPECT PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE LARGE RAINBANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANA CONTINUE TO REACH THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM THE S.

PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED FAR NNE OF
THE ALOHA STATE AND HURRICANE ANA REMAIN TIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS OVER KAUAI AND OAHU. WINDS AT THE BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS ARE ALSO SUBSIDING...AND ARE NOW BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SUMMITS IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS ANA MOVES W AND NW OF THE
AREA...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SE WITH A GENERAL DRYING
TREND AND INCREASINGLY STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
HURRICANE ANA IS AROUND 100 MILES SOUTH OF KAUAI THIS MORNING.
OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS WITH TOPS TO 52 KFT ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY COVERS THE WESTERN MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE LAYERED
CLOUDS ARE INDUCING MODERATE RIME ICING OVER THE WESTERN
ISLANDS...AND AIRMET ZULU IS IN EFFECT.

MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS STRATIFORM...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN WILL PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. ALL TERMINALS
MAY EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN PASSING
SHOWERS. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC IS POSTED FROM KAUAI TO MAUI AND
AIRMET TANGO IS POSTED FOR LOW LEVEL TURB IN THE LEE OF THE TERRAIN
FOR ALL ISLANDS.

EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS WITH LOW
VIS/CEILINGS...ISOL THUNDERSTORMS...AND LAYERED CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
TODAY AS ANA MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST NORTHWEST.

FOLLOW TC SIGMET QUEBEC SERIES FOR HURRICANE ANA.

&&

.MARINE...
HURRICANE ANA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM EAST TO WEST AS ANA CONTINUES MOVING
WESTWARD SOUTH OF KAUAI. OCEAN CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...
LARGE SWELLS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER EXPOSED AREAS. ELEVATED SURF WILL
OCCUR OVER EXPOSED SHORELINES...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH A SOUTHERLY
EXPOSURE. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PERSIST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALL PEOPLE IN HAWAII SHOULD
CLOSELY FOLLOW THE LATEST BULLETINS AND FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN HONOLULU.

FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS...PLEASE
REFER TO THE HURRICANE ANA LOCAL STATEMENT AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

ELSEWHERE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
NOT UNDER A HURRICANE WARNING...TROPICAL STORM WARNING OR WATCH. A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU AND
MAUI COUNTY...AND FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND. ALSO...A
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PEAK LATER TODAY...WITH SURF HEIGHTS REACHING
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG MOST NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...THE NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF OAHU AND MOLOKAI...AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI
ARE INCLUDED IN THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY. THIS SWELL WILL SHIFT TO A
MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION...AND WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH TUESDAY.
A NEW SMALL NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI-OAHU-
MOLOKAI-LANAI-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR THE NORTH SOUTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES OF OAHU AND MOLOKAI...NORTH AND SOUTH FACING
SHORES OF MAUI...WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND SOUTH
FACING SHORES OF LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE.

HURRICANE WARNING FOR KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD
WATERS.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR OAHU WINDWARD
WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY
LEEWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...REYNES
MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...FOSTER









000
FXHW60 PHFO 191400
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE ANA IS BRINGING RAIN...SOMETIMES HEAVY...STRONG WINDS AND
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. STAY WELL INFORMED WITH THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND BULLETINS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU. A MORE STABLE
AND DRIER TREND WILL BEGIN ESTABLISHING IN THE WAKE OF ANA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM HST HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED AT 20.6N 159.7W...OR ABOUT 95
MILES S OF LIHUE IN KAUAI. ANA IS SLOWLY MOVING NW AT ABOUT 7 MPH AS
IT BRINGS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF ANA ARE 80 MPH.

A LARGE RAINBAND HAS BEEN HITTING OAHU AND MUCH OF MAUI COUNTY
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS...PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. THIS SCENARIO
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION
OF ANA WILL ALLOW FOR OAHU AND SURROUNDING WATERS TO REMAIN INSIDE
THIS RAINBAND.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE KAUAI
CHANNEL WATERS AND E KAUAI. SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF ANA WILL LIKELY BRUSH AGAINST NIIHAU AND MAYBE
EVEN W KAUAI TODAY. THEREFORE...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR KAUAI COUNTY. ALSO...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR OAHU. IN ADDITION...A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR THE KAUAI LEEWARD COASTAL WATERS.

PEOPLE IN HAWAII SHOULD REMAIN WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST
BULLETINS AND FORECASTS WHICH ARE AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTPA25 PHFO AND TCMCP5. PUBLIC
ADVISORIES UNDER HEADERS WTPA35 PHFO AND TCPCP5...AND DISCUSSIONS
UNDER HEADERS WTPA45 PHFO AND TCDCP5. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN
ALSO BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL STORM ANA LOCAL STATEMENT UNDER
HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MAUI COUNTY...OAHU AND
KAUAI COUNTY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BIG ISLAND IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT. FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS...EXPECT PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE LARGE RAINBANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANA CONTINUE TO REACH THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM THE S.

PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED FAR NNE OF
THE ALOHA STATE AND HURRICANE ANA REMAIN TIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS OVER KAUAI AND OAHU. WINDS AT THE BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS ARE ALSO SUBSIDING...AND ARE NOW BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SUMMITS IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS ANA MOVES W AND NW OF THE
AREA...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SE WITH A GENERAL DRYING
TREND AND INCREASINGLY STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
HURRICANE ANA IS AROUND 100 MILES SOUTH OF KAUAI THIS MORNING.
OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS WITH TOPS TO 52 KFT ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY COVERS THE WESTERN MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE LAYERED
CLOUDS ARE INDUCING MODERATE RIME ICING OVER THE WESTERN
ISLANDS...AND AIRMET ZULU IS IN EFFECT.

MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS STRATIFORM...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN WILL PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. ALL TERMINALS
MAY EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN PASSING
SHOWERS. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC IS POSTED FROM KAUAI TO MAUI AND
AIRMET TANGO IS POSTED FOR LOW LEVEL TURB IN THE LEE OF THE TERRAIN
FOR ALL ISLANDS.

EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS WITH LOW
VIS/CEILINGS...ISOL THUNDERSTORMS...AND LAYERED CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
TODAY AS ANA MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST NORTHWEST.

FOLLOW TC SIGMET QUEBEC SERIES FOR HURRICANE ANA.

&&

.MARINE...
HURRICANE ANA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM EAST TO WEST AS ANA
CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD SOUTH OF KAUAI. OCEAN CONDITIONS OVER MOST
OF THE COASTAL WATERS CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS...LARGE SWELLS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER EXPOSED AREAS.
ELEVATED SURF WILL OCCUR OVER EXPOSED SHORELINES...ESPECIALLY THOSE
WITH A SOUTHERLY EXPOSURE. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALL PEOPLE
IN HAWAII SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE LATEST BULLETINS AND FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN HONOLULU.

FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS...PLEASE
REFER TO THE HURRICANE ANA LOCAL STATEMENT AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

ELSEWHERE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
NOT UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI COUNTY AND SOUTH
AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND. ALSO...A NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL PEAK LATER TODAY...WITH SURF HEIGHTS REACHING THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG MOST NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...THE NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF
MOLOKAI AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY. THIS SWELL WILL SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION...AND WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH TUESDAY. A NEW SMALL
NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI-OAHU-
MOLOKAI-LANAI-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR OAHU.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR THE NORTH SOUTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES OF MOLOKAI...NORTH AND SOUTH FACING SHORES OF
MAUI...SOUTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND SOUTH
FACING SHORES OF LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE.

HURRICANE WARNING FOR KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD
WATERS.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR OAHU WINDWARD
WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY
LEEWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...REYNES
MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...FOSTER








000
FXHW60 PHFO 191400
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE ANA IS BRINGING RAIN...SOMETIMES HEAVY...STRONG WINDS AND
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. STAY WELL INFORMED WITH THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND BULLETINS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU. A MORE STABLE
AND DRIER TREND WILL BEGIN ESTABLISHING IN THE WAKE OF ANA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM HST HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED AT 20.6N 159.7W...OR ABOUT 95
MILES S OF LIHUE IN KAUAI. ANA IS SLOWLY MOVING NW AT ABOUT 7 MPH AS
IT BRINGS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF ANA ARE 80 MPH.

A LARGE RAINBAND HAS BEEN HITTING OAHU AND MUCH OF MAUI COUNTY
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS...PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. THIS SCENARIO
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION
OF ANA WILL ALLOW FOR OAHU AND SURROUNDING WATERS TO REMAIN INSIDE
THIS RAINBAND.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE KAUAI
CHANNEL WATERS AND E KAUAI. SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF ANA WILL LIKELY BRUSH AGAINST NIIHAU AND MAYBE
EVEN W KAUAI TODAY. THEREFORE...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR KAUAI COUNTY. ALSO...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR OAHU. IN ADDITION...A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR THE KAUAI LEEWARD COASTAL WATERS.

PEOPLE IN HAWAII SHOULD REMAIN WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST
BULLETINS AND FORECASTS WHICH ARE AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTPA25 PHFO AND TCMCP5. PUBLIC
ADVISORIES UNDER HEADERS WTPA35 PHFO AND TCPCP5...AND DISCUSSIONS
UNDER HEADERS WTPA45 PHFO AND TCDCP5. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN
ALSO BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL STORM ANA LOCAL STATEMENT UNDER
HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MAUI COUNTY...OAHU AND
KAUAI COUNTY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BIG ISLAND IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT. FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS...EXPECT PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE LARGE RAINBANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANA CONTINUE TO REACH THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM THE S.

PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED FAR NNE OF
THE ALOHA STATE AND HURRICANE ANA REMAIN TIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS OVER KAUAI AND OAHU. WINDS AT THE BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS ARE ALSO SUBSIDING...AND ARE NOW BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SUMMITS IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS ANA MOVES W AND NW OF THE
AREA...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SE WITH A GENERAL DRYING
TREND AND INCREASINGLY STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
HURRICANE ANA IS AROUND 100 MILES SOUTH OF KAUAI THIS MORNING.
OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS WITH TOPS TO 52 KFT ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY COVERS THE WESTERN MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE LAYERED
CLOUDS ARE INDUCING MODERATE RIME ICING OVER THE WESTERN
ISLANDS...AND AIRMET ZULU IS IN EFFECT.

MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS STRATIFORM...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN WILL PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. ALL TERMINALS
MAY EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN PASSING
SHOWERS. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC IS POSTED FROM KAUAI TO MAUI AND
AIRMET TANGO IS POSTED FOR LOW LEVEL TURB IN THE LEE OF THE TERRAIN
FOR ALL ISLANDS.

EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS WITH LOW
VIS/CEILINGS...ISOL THUNDERSTORMS...AND LAYERED CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
TODAY AS ANA MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST NORTHWEST.

FOLLOW TC SIGMET QUEBEC SERIES FOR HURRICANE ANA.

&&

.MARINE...
HURRICANE ANA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM EAST TO WEST AS ANA
CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD SOUTH OF KAUAI. OCEAN CONDITIONS OVER MOST
OF THE COASTAL WATERS CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS...LARGE SWELLS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER EXPOSED AREAS.
ELEVATED SURF WILL OCCUR OVER EXPOSED SHORELINES...ESPECIALLY THOSE
WITH A SOUTHERLY EXPOSURE. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALL PEOPLE
IN HAWAII SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE LATEST BULLETINS AND FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN HONOLULU.

FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS...PLEASE
REFER TO THE HURRICANE ANA LOCAL STATEMENT AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

ELSEWHERE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
NOT UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI COUNTY AND SOUTH
AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND. ALSO...A NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL PEAK LATER TODAY...WITH SURF HEIGHTS REACHING THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG MOST NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...THE NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF
MOLOKAI AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY. THIS SWELL WILL SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION...AND WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH TUESDAY. A NEW SMALL
NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI-OAHU-
MOLOKAI-LANAI-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR OAHU.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR THE NORTH SOUTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES OF MOLOKAI...NORTH AND SOUTH FACING SHORES OF
MAUI...SOUTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND SOUTH
FACING SHORES OF LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE.

HURRICANE WARNING FOR KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD
WATERS.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR OAHU WINDWARD
WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY
LEEWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...REYNES
MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...FOSTER







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