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000
FXHW60 PHFO 200643
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A PATTERN OF LOCAL NIGHTTIME LAND AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. IN THIS
REGIME...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND MORNINGS...WITH CLOUD BUILDS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR SECTIONS
EACH AFTERNOON. A RETURN OF LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES IS EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE TRADE WINDS MAY BECOME WETTER FROM
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING
FRONT ARRIVES OVER THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLAND
CHAIN TONIGHT. A WEAK NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH HAS
BEEN ANALYZED IN THE VICINITY OF THE KAUAI CHANNEL. THE WEAK WINDS
WEST OF THIS FEATURE WERE FROM THE NORTHEAST...AND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE
HIGH IS FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE NEAR 31N 139W...WHILE A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A HIGH JUST ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL DATE
LINE NEAR 31N 177E TO A POINT ABOUT 575 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
LIHUE. AS A RESULT OF THIS SLACK GRADIENT...THE BACKGROUND FLOW
ACROSS THE ISLANDS REMAINS VERY WEAK. THIS IS ALLOWING ALTERNATING
LOCAL NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZE AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERNS ACROSS THE INDIVIDUAL ISLANDS EACH DAY.

ALSO...A PAIR OF WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ARE EVIDENT SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. ALTHOUGH THESE FEATURES ARE NOT HAVING
A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON LOCAL WINDS...THESE SYSTEMS ARE A SOURCE OF
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE OUTER FRINGES OF THIS MOISTURE ALREADY
ARRIVED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH INTERIOR OF THE BIG ISLAND
EARLIER TODAY. AS A RESULT...THE EARLY AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOW A
MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE SOUTHEASTERN
AND WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A MORE ACTIVE SHOWER PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

ALOFT...A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BE REPLACED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGING STARTING SUNDAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE ALTERNATING LAND AND SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...FOLLOWED BY CLOUD BUILD UPS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND LINGERING
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD ALSO
FEATURE SOME ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON SATURDAY...BUT THESE MAY BE
A LITTLE LESS LIKELY ON SUNDAY.

A SURFACE FRONT NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THIS
WEEKEND...BUT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE AREA SOMETIME ON SUNDAY. A
MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PASSING FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL
INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW TO GRADUALLY RETURN
STARTING MONDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW A NEW
FRONT MOVING DOWN TOWARD THE AREA AROUND THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE DROPPING DOWN TOWARD THE ISLAND CHAIN AS AN EAST TO
WEST ORIENTED BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AS A RESULT...IT APPEARS
THIS FEATURE WILL IMPACT THE ISLANDS FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MOST
OF THE MOISTURE WILL FOCUS OVER WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE STATE...AND
IT WILL POSSIBLY LINGER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
TRADE WIND FLOW MAY TRANSPORT A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS OVER TO LEEWARD
AREAS ON THE SMALLER ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

NOTE THAT THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW VOG AND SMOKE FROM THE BIG
ISLAND/S ACTIVE VOLCANO/LAVA FLOWS TO POOL NEAR THE SURFACE OVER
PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE CLEARING BY MID-MORNING. STRONGER WINDS NEXT
WEEK WILL LIKELY PREVENT A STRONG GROUND-BASED INVERSION FROM
DEVELOPING...AND THE POOLING OF PARTICULATES NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD
BE LESS PRONOUNCED.

AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOCAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
/SSTS/ ARE ANOMALOUSLY WARM FOR SEPTEMBER...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO
THE ONGOING MUGGY CONDITIONS. SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER
70/S. THE SSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEAR
FUTURE. THEREFORE...EVEN THOUGH THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES MAY COOL SLIGHTLY...BUT THE DEW
POINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES AND A GENERAL CLEARING TREND WILL
CHARACTERIZE THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT FOR MOST ISLANDS. THE BIG ISLAND
HOWEVER WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY. TEMPO MVFR IN PASSING SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY ALONG SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COASTS AND LOWER SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND. ISOLATED MVFR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE REMAINING AREAS.

GENTLE AFTERNOON SEAS BREEZES WILL REDEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED
OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF ALL ISLANDS. VFR CONDS WILL NEVERTHELESS
PREVAIL ALL AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE TO NO CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO THE MARINE
FORECASTS...WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
/SCA/ CRITERIA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY TRADE
WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH THE SCA THRESHOLD ACROSS THE WINDIER MARINE
ZONES ADJACENT TO THE ISLANDS OF MAUI AND HAWAII COUNTIES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SURF WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG
ALL SHORES OF ALL ISLANDS THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL
SWELLS WILL PROVIDE SOME SURF. SMALL SWELLS FROM THE NORTHWEST...
NORTHEAST...EAST AND SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SMALL BACKGROUND
SURF ALONG MOST SHORELINES OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. NEW
NORTH AND NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL ALSO AFFECT MOST ISLANDS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TINY LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH WILL
MAINTAIN SURF HEIGHTS NEAR OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALONG SOUTH
FACING SHORES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...BEDAL









000
FXHW60 PHFO 200643
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A PATTERN OF LOCAL NIGHTTIME LAND AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. IN THIS
REGIME...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND MORNINGS...WITH CLOUD BUILDS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR SECTIONS
EACH AFTERNOON. A RETURN OF LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES IS EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE TRADE WINDS MAY BECOME WETTER FROM
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING
FRONT ARRIVES OVER THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLAND
CHAIN TONIGHT. A WEAK NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH HAS
BEEN ANALYZED IN THE VICINITY OF THE KAUAI CHANNEL. THE WEAK WINDS
WEST OF THIS FEATURE WERE FROM THE NORTHEAST...AND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE
HIGH IS FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE NEAR 31N 139W...WHILE A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A HIGH JUST ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL DATE
LINE NEAR 31N 177E TO A POINT ABOUT 575 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
LIHUE. AS A RESULT OF THIS SLACK GRADIENT...THE BACKGROUND FLOW
ACROSS THE ISLANDS REMAINS VERY WEAK. THIS IS ALLOWING ALTERNATING
LOCAL NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZE AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERNS ACROSS THE INDIVIDUAL ISLANDS EACH DAY.

ALSO...A PAIR OF WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ARE EVIDENT SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. ALTHOUGH THESE FEATURES ARE NOT HAVING
A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON LOCAL WINDS...THESE SYSTEMS ARE A SOURCE OF
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE OUTER FRINGES OF THIS MOISTURE ALREADY
ARRIVED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH INTERIOR OF THE BIG ISLAND
EARLIER TODAY. AS A RESULT...THE EARLY AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOW A
MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE SOUTHEASTERN
AND WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A MORE ACTIVE SHOWER PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

ALOFT...A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BE REPLACED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGING STARTING SUNDAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE ALTERNATING LAND AND SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...FOLLOWED BY CLOUD BUILD UPS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND LINGERING
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD ALSO
FEATURE SOME ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON SATURDAY...BUT THESE MAY BE
A LITTLE LESS LIKELY ON SUNDAY.

A SURFACE FRONT NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THIS
WEEKEND...BUT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE AREA SOMETIME ON SUNDAY. A
MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PASSING FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL
INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW TO GRADUALLY RETURN
STARTING MONDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW A NEW
FRONT MOVING DOWN TOWARD THE AREA AROUND THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE DROPPING DOWN TOWARD THE ISLAND CHAIN AS AN EAST TO
WEST ORIENTED BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AS A RESULT...IT APPEARS
THIS FEATURE WILL IMPACT THE ISLANDS FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MOST
OF THE MOISTURE WILL FOCUS OVER WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE STATE...AND
IT WILL POSSIBLY LINGER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
TRADE WIND FLOW MAY TRANSPORT A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS OVER TO LEEWARD
AREAS ON THE SMALLER ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

NOTE THAT THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW VOG AND SMOKE FROM THE BIG
ISLAND/S ACTIVE VOLCANO/LAVA FLOWS TO POOL NEAR THE SURFACE OVER
PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE CLEARING BY MID-MORNING. STRONGER WINDS NEXT
WEEK WILL LIKELY PREVENT A STRONG GROUND-BASED INVERSION FROM
DEVELOPING...AND THE POOLING OF PARTICULATES NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD
BE LESS PRONOUNCED.

AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOCAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
/SSTS/ ARE ANOMALOUSLY WARM FOR SEPTEMBER...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO
THE ONGOING MUGGY CONDITIONS. SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER
70/S. THE SSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEAR
FUTURE. THEREFORE...EVEN THOUGH THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES MAY COOL SLIGHTLY...BUT THE DEW
POINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES AND A GENERAL CLEARING TREND WILL
CHARACTERIZE THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT FOR MOST ISLANDS. THE BIG ISLAND
HOWEVER WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY. TEMPO MVFR IN PASSING SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY ALONG SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COASTS AND LOWER SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND. ISOLATED MVFR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE REMAINING AREAS.

GENTLE AFTERNOON SEAS BREEZES WILL REDEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED
OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF ALL ISLANDS. VFR CONDS WILL NEVERTHELESS
PREVAIL ALL AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE TO NO CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO THE MARINE
FORECASTS...WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
/SCA/ CRITERIA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY TRADE
WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH THE SCA THRESHOLD ACROSS THE WINDIER MARINE
ZONES ADJACENT TO THE ISLANDS OF MAUI AND HAWAII COUNTIES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SURF WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG
ALL SHORES OF ALL ISLANDS THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL
SWELLS WILL PROVIDE SOME SURF. SMALL SWELLS FROM THE NORTHWEST...
NORTHEAST...EAST AND SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SMALL BACKGROUND
SURF ALONG MOST SHORELINES OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. NEW
NORTH AND NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL ALSO AFFECT MOST ISLANDS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TINY LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH WILL
MAINTAIN SURF HEIGHTS NEAR OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALONG SOUTH
FACING SHORES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...BEDAL










000
FXHW60 PHFO 200145
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
345 PM HST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO
DRIVE ISLAND WEATHER. IN THIS REGIME...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHTS AND MORNINGS...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
INTERIOR AND MAUKA AREAS IN THE AFTERNOONS. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK...DELIVERING BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS
TO WINDWARD AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE TRADE WINDS MAY BECOME
WETTER THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAKENING FRONT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE AREA...WITH LIGHT
LARGE-SCALE WINDS ALLOWING ISLAND-SCALE WINDS TO DRIVE THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER PATTERN. RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE HIGHS ARE FAR NW AND NE OF
THE ISLANDS...WHILE A SE-WARD DIGGING FRONT IS ABOUT 700 MILES N OF
KAUAI. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO FEATURES A WEAK N-S ORIENTED
TROUGH AXIS NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU...WITH WEAK NE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH
AND WEAK SE WINDS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A PAIR OF TROPICAL
DISTURBANCES S AND SE OF THE BIG ISLAND CONTAIN DEEP MOISTURE...WITH
THIS INCREASED MOISTURE EXTENDING AS FAR N AS THE BIG ISLAND.
AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN
PLACE...WITH TODAY/S AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONFIRMING THAT THE MOST
UNSTABLE AIR PARCELS ARE ABLE TO EXTEND AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 KFT...
SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS.

THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY LOOSE FOR LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO BE THE DOMINANT
FACTOR DRIVING ISLAND WEATHER...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT
AND IN THE MORNING...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING AND LINGERING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ONE EXCEPTION WOULD
BE THE SE AND WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND ADJACENT
WATERS...WHERE SHOWERS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCES TO THE S. A
WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING N OF THE ISLANDS WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE
WAY TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING...WITH THE RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD ON
SUNDAY. THUS THIS WEEKEND/S AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD ALSO FEATURE
SOME ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT MAY BE A LITTLE LESS LIKELY ON
SUNDAY.

THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW VOG AND SMOKE FROM THE BIG ISLAND/S
ACTIVE VOLCANO/LAVA FLOWS TO POOL NEAR THE SURFACE ON THE BIG ISLAND
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE CLEARING IN THE
MID-MORNING. STRONGER WINDS NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY PREVENT A STRONG
GROUND-BASED INVERSION FROM DEVELOPING...AND THE POOLING OF
PARTICULATES NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD BE LESS PRONOUNCED.

THE FRONT N OF THE ISLANDS NOW WILL MOVE S THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT WILL
STALL N OF THE ISLANDS...CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONTINUED LIGHT WIND
REGIME. A SECOND FRONT WILL DIG TOWARD THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PASSING N OF THE ISLANDS...AND
THE FRONTAL REMNANTS...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS TRADE WINDS INCREASING MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
HIGH/S PASSAGE...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PERSISTING FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MODELS SHOWS THE SECOND FRONT BECOMING
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE FLOW AS AN E-W ORIENTED BAND OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS THAT POTENTIALLY AFFECTS ISLAND WEATHER AROUND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WITH TRADE WINDS BLOWING...THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE WILL
FOCUS ON WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY ADVECT SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
OVER TO LEEWARD AREAS ON THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

LOCAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES /SSTS/ ARE ANOMALOUSLY WARM...
CONTRIBUTING TO THE ONGOING MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 70/S. SSTS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT
WEEK...AND ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING TRADE WINDS MAY MAKE IT FEEL A
LITTLE COOLER NEXT WEEK...THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A DRAMATIC
EFFECT ON THE RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION FLARED UP OVER THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
FOR INTERIOR KAUAI...OAHU...AND THE KAU AND SADDLE AREAS ON THE BIG
ISLAND...WITH TCU TOPS BETWEEN 15 AND 22 KFT. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY...TEMPO MVFR WITH ISOL IFR CIGS AND VIS AND ELEVATED
TOPS...TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD START
TO IMPROVE WITH SUNSET AND CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...AS LAND BREEZES
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH BIG
ISLAND. ENHANCED MOISTURE SKIRTING JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND
TONIGHT WILL HELP TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH TEMPO MVFR AND
POSSIBLE ISOL IFR OVER SE BIG ISLAND...INCLUDING S HILO...PUNA...AND
KAU DISTRICTS.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO THE MARINE FORECASTS...WITH
WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA /SCA/
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASING TRADE WINDS MAY GET STRONG ENOUGH
TO WARRANT SCA ISSUANCE FOR THE WINDIER MARINE ZONES AROUND MAUI AND
THE BIG ISLAND AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SURF WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG ALL SHORES OVER THE
NEXT WEEK...BUT SMALL SWELLS WILL PROVIDE SOME SURF. SMALL SWELLS
FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY/
THURSDAY...WITH A NNE SWELL POSSIBLE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TINY
LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE S WILL MAINTAIN SURF NEAR OR BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES ALONG S FACING SHORES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 200145
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
345 PM HST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO
DRIVE ISLAND WEATHER. IN THIS REGIME...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHTS AND MORNINGS...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
INTERIOR AND MAUKA AREAS IN THE AFTERNOONS. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK...DELIVERING BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS
TO WINDWARD AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE TRADE WINDS MAY BECOME
WETTER THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAKENING FRONT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE AREA...WITH LIGHT
LARGE-SCALE WINDS ALLOWING ISLAND-SCALE WINDS TO DRIVE THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER PATTERN. RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE HIGHS ARE FAR NW AND NE OF
THE ISLANDS...WHILE A SE-WARD DIGGING FRONT IS ABOUT 700 MILES N OF
KAUAI. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO FEATURES A WEAK N-S ORIENTED
TROUGH AXIS NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU...WITH WEAK NE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH
AND WEAK SE WINDS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A PAIR OF TROPICAL
DISTURBANCES S AND SE OF THE BIG ISLAND CONTAIN DEEP MOISTURE...WITH
THIS INCREASED MOISTURE EXTENDING AS FAR N AS THE BIG ISLAND.
AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN
PLACE...WITH TODAY/S AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONFIRMING THAT THE MOST
UNSTABLE AIR PARCELS ARE ABLE TO EXTEND AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 KFT...
SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS.

THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY LOOSE FOR LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO BE THE DOMINANT
FACTOR DRIVING ISLAND WEATHER...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT
AND IN THE MORNING...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING AND LINGERING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ONE EXCEPTION WOULD
BE THE SE AND WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND ADJACENT
WATERS...WHERE SHOWERS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCES TO THE S. A
WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING N OF THE ISLANDS WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE
WAY TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING...WITH THE RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD ON
SUNDAY. THUS THIS WEEKEND/S AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD ALSO FEATURE
SOME ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT MAY BE A LITTLE LESS LIKELY ON
SUNDAY.

THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW VOG AND SMOKE FROM THE BIG ISLAND/S
ACTIVE VOLCANO/LAVA FLOWS TO POOL NEAR THE SURFACE ON THE BIG ISLAND
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE CLEARING IN THE
MID-MORNING. STRONGER WINDS NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY PREVENT A STRONG
GROUND-BASED INVERSION FROM DEVELOPING...AND THE POOLING OF
PARTICULATES NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD BE LESS PRONOUNCED.

THE FRONT N OF THE ISLANDS NOW WILL MOVE S THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT WILL
STALL N OF THE ISLANDS...CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONTINUED LIGHT WIND
REGIME. A SECOND FRONT WILL DIG TOWARD THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PASSING N OF THE ISLANDS...AND
THE FRONTAL REMNANTS...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS TRADE WINDS INCREASING MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
HIGH/S PASSAGE...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PERSISTING FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MODELS SHOWS THE SECOND FRONT BECOMING
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE FLOW AS AN E-W ORIENTED BAND OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS THAT POTENTIALLY AFFECTS ISLAND WEATHER AROUND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WITH TRADE WINDS BLOWING...THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE WILL
FOCUS ON WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY ADVECT SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
OVER TO LEEWARD AREAS ON THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

LOCAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES /SSTS/ ARE ANOMALOUSLY WARM...
CONTRIBUTING TO THE ONGOING MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 70/S. SSTS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT
WEEK...AND ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING TRADE WINDS MAY MAKE IT FEEL A
LITTLE COOLER NEXT WEEK...THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A DRAMATIC
EFFECT ON THE RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION FLARED UP OVER THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
FOR INTERIOR KAUAI...OAHU...AND THE KAU AND SADDLE AREAS ON THE BIG
ISLAND...WITH TCU TOPS BETWEEN 15 AND 22 KFT. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY...TEMPO MVFR WITH ISOL IFR CIGS AND VIS AND ELEVATED
TOPS...TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD START
TO IMPROVE WITH SUNSET AND CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...AS LAND BREEZES
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH BIG
ISLAND. ENHANCED MOISTURE SKIRTING JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND
TONIGHT WILL HELP TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH TEMPO MVFR AND
POSSIBLE ISOL IFR OVER SE BIG ISLAND...INCLUDING S HILO...PUNA...AND
KAU DISTRICTS.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO THE MARINE FORECASTS...WITH
WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA /SCA/
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASING TRADE WINDS MAY GET STRONG ENOUGH
TO WARRANT SCA ISSUANCE FOR THE WINDIER MARINE ZONES AROUND MAUI AND
THE BIG ISLAND AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SURF WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG ALL SHORES OVER THE
NEXT WEEK...BUT SMALL SWELLS WILL PROVIDE SOME SURF. SMALL SWELLS
FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY/
THURSDAY...WITH A NNE SWELL POSSIBLE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TINY
LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE S WILL MAINTAIN SURF NEAR OR BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES ALONG S FACING SHORES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 192217 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST FRI SEP 19 2014

CORRECTED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO
DRIVE ISLAND WEATHER. IN THIS REGIME...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR AND MAUKA AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOONS...
FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL OVERNIGHT CLEARING. TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK... AND REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE MOST OF THE
WEEK...DELIVERING BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS. THE TRADE
WINDS MAY BECOME WETTER BY THURSDAY...AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAKENING FRONT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE AREA...WITH LIGHT
LARGE-SCALE WINDS CONTAINING AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. SURFACE HIGHS ARE
FAR NW AND NE OF THE ISLANDS...WHILE A SE-WARD DIGGING FRONT IS
NOTED ABOUT 750 MILES N OF KAUAI. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTAINS A
WEAK N-S TROUGH AXIS NEAR OAHU...WITH WEAK NE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH
AND WEAK SE WINDS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A PAIR OF TROPICAL
DISTURBANCES PASSING S AND SE OF THE BIG ISLAND CONTAIN DEEP
MOISTURE...WITH THE BIG ISLAND ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
MOISTURE. FOR TODAY...FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OF THIS MORNING /ASIDE FROM A SMALL CLUMP OF
SHOWERS THAT MOVED ASHORE S OAHU/. SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR AND MAUKA SECTIONS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVERGING SEA BREEZES DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO HEATING
OF THE ISLANDS. OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST AND RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND THUS TODAY/S CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO EXTEND TO THE SUMMITS OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...AND THERE IS A
DECENT CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY BUT ISOLATED DOWNPOURS STATEWIDE.

THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY LOOSE FOR LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO BE THE DOMINANT
FACTOR DRIVING ISLAND WEATHER...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT
AND IN THE MORNING...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING THAT LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ONE POTENTIAL
EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE SE AND WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND...
WHERE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCES TO THE S. A WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH PASSING N OF THE ISLANDS WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGING...WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ON SUNDAY. THUS THIS
WEEKEND/S AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD ALSO FEATURE SOME ISOLATED
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT MAY BE A LITTLE LESS LIKELY ON SUNDAY.

THE FRONT N OF THE ISLANDS TODAY WILL MOVE S THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT
WILL STALL N OF THE ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND...CONTRIBUTING TO THE
CONTINUED LIGHT WIND REGIME. LOCAL WATER TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE
WARM...CONTRIBUTING TO THE MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 70/S. A SECOND FRONT WILL DIG TOWARD THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PASSING N OF THE ISLANDS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS TRADE
WINDS INCREASING MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH/S PASSAGE...WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PERSISTING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. MODELS SHOWS THE SECOND FRONT BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
TRADE FLOW AS AN E-W ORIENTED BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
POTENTIALLY AFFECTS ISLAND WEATHER AROUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WITH TRADE WINDS BLOWING THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE WILL FOCUS ON
WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY ADVECT SOME OF THESE SHOWERS OVER TO
LEEWARD AREAS ON THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES HELPED TO KEEP THE ISLANDS CLEAR THIS
MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF OAHU. THE LIGHT
BACKGROUND FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO FORM LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE
TEMPO MVFR AND POSSIBLE ISOL IFR CIGS AND VIS WITH TOPS RISING ABOVE
15 KFT THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. WINDWARD AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE ISOL
MVFR CIGS IS PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA /SCA/
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AFTER WHICH INCREASING TRADE WINDS MAY GET
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCA ISSUANCE FOR THE WINDIER MARINE ZONES
AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SURF WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG ALL SHORES OVER THE
NEXT WEEK...BUT SMALL SWELLS WILL PROVIDE SOME SURF. SMALL SWELLS
FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY/
THURSDAY...WITH A NNE SWELL POSSIBLE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TINY
LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE S WILL MAINTAIN SURF NEAR OR BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES ALONG S FACING SHORES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 192217 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST FRI SEP 19 2014

CORRECTED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO
DRIVE ISLAND WEATHER. IN THIS REGIME...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR AND MAUKA AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOONS...
FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL OVERNIGHT CLEARING. TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK... AND REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE MOST OF THE
WEEK...DELIVERING BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS. THE TRADE
WINDS MAY BECOME WETTER BY THURSDAY...AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAKENING FRONT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE AREA...WITH LIGHT
LARGE-SCALE WINDS CONTAINING AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. SURFACE HIGHS ARE
FAR NW AND NE OF THE ISLANDS...WHILE A SE-WARD DIGGING FRONT IS
NOTED ABOUT 750 MILES N OF KAUAI. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTAINS A
WEAK N-S TROUGH AXIS NEAR OAHU...WITH WEAK NE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH
AND WEAK SE WINDS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A PAIR OF TROPICAL
DISTURBANCES PASSING S AND SE OF THE BIG ISLAND CONTAIN DEEP
MOISTURE...WITH THE BIG ISLAND ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
MOISTURE. FOR TODAY...FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OF THIS MORNING /ASIDE FROM A SMALL CLUMP OF
SHOWERS THAT MOVED ASHORE S OAHU/. SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR AND MAUKA SECTIONS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVERGING SEA BREEZES DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO HEATING
OF THE ISLANDS. OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST AND RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND THUS TODAY/S CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO EXTEND TO THE SUMMITS OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...AND THERE IS A
DECENT CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY BUT ISOLATED DOWNPOURS STATEWIDE.

THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY LOOSE FOR LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO BE THE DOMINANT
FACTOR DRIVING ISLAND WEATHER...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT
AND IN THE MORNING...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING THAT LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ONE POTENTIAL
EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE SE AND WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND...
WHERE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCES TO THE S. A WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH PASSING N OF THE ISLANDS WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGING...WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ON SUNDAY. THUS THIS
WEEKEND/S AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD ALSO FEATURE SOME ISOLATED
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT MAY BE A LITTLE LESS LIKELY ON SUNDAY.

THE FRONT N OF THE ISLANDS TODAY WILL MOVE S THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT
WILL STALL N OF THE ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND...CONTRIBUTING TO THE
CONTINUED LIGHT WIND REGIME. LOCAL WATER TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE
WARM...CONTRIBUTING TO THE MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 70/S. A SECOND FRONT WILL DIG TOWARD THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PASSING N OF THE ISLANDS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS TRADE
WINDS INCREASING MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH/S PASSAGE...WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PERSISTING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. MODELS SHOWS THE SECOND FRONT BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
TRADE FLOW AS AN E-W ORIENTED BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
POTENTIALLY AFFECTS ISLAND WEATHER AROUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WITH TRADE WINDS BLOWING THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE WILL FOCUS ON
WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY ADVECT SOME OF THESE SHOWERS OVER TO
LEEWARD AREAS ON THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES HELPED TO KEEP THE ISLANDS CLEAR THIS
MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF OAHU. THE LIGHT
BACKGROUND FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO FORM LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE
TEMPO MVFR AND POSSIBLE ISOL IFR CIGS AND VIS WITH TOPS RISING ABOVE
15 KFT THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. WINDWARD AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE ISOL
MVFR CIGS IS PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA /SCA/
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AFTER WHICH INCREASING TRADE WINDS MAY GET
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCA ISSUANCE FOR THE WINDIER MARINE ZONES
AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SURF WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG ALL SHORES OVER THE
NEXT WEEK...BUT SMALL SWELLS WILL PROVIDE SOME SURF. SMALL SWELLS
FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY/
THURSDAY...WITH A NNE SWELL POSSIBLE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TINY
LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE S WILL MAINTAIN SURF NEAR OR BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES ALONG S FACING SHORES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 192002
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO
DRIVE ISLAND WEATHER. IN THIS REGIME...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR AND MAUKA AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOONS...
FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL OVERNIGHT CLEARING. TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK... AND REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE MOST OF THE
WEEK...DELIVERING BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS. THE TRADE
WINDS MAY BECOME WETTER BY THURSDAY...AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAKENING FRONT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE AREA...WITH LIGHT
LARGE-SCALE WINDS CONTAINING AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. SURFACE HIGHS ARE
FAR NW AND NE OF THE ISLANDS...WHILE A SE-WARD DIGGING FRONT IS
NOTED ABOUT 750 MILES N OF KAUAI. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTAINS A
WEAK N-S TROUGH AXIS NEAR OAHU...WITH WEAK NE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH
AND WEAK SE WINDS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A PAIR OF TROPICAL
DISTURBANCES PASSING S AND SE OF THE BIG ISLAND CONTAIN DEEP
MOISTURE...WITH THE BIG ISLAND ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
MOISTURE. FOR TODAY...FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OF THIS MORNING /ASIDE FROM A SMALL CLUMP OF
SHOWERS THAT MOVED ASHORE S OAHU/. SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR AND MAUKA SECTIONS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVERGING SEA BREEZES DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO HEATING
OF THE ISLANDS. OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST AND RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND THUS TODAY/S CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO EXTEND TO THE SUMMITS OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...AND THERE IS A
DECENT CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY BUT ISOLATED DOWNPOURS STATEWIDE.

THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY LOOSE FOR LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO BE THE DOMINANT
FACTOR DRIVING ISLAND WEATHER...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT
AND IN THE MORNING...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING THAT LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ONE POTENTIAL
EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE SE AND WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND...
WHERE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCES TO THE S. A WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH PASSING N OF THE ISLANDS WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGING...WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ON SUNDAY. THUS THIS
WEEKEND/S AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD ALSO FEATURE SOME ISOLATED
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT MAY BE A LITTLE LESS LIKELY ON SUNDAY.

THE FRONT N OF THE ISLANDS TODAY WILL MOVE S THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT
WILL STALL N OF THE ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND...CONTRIBUTING TO THE
CONTINUED LIGHT WIND REGIME. LOCAL WATER TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE
WARM...CONTRIBUTING TO THE MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 70/S. A SECOND FRONT WILL DIG TOWARD THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PASSING N OF THE ISLANDS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS TRADE
WINDS INCREASING MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH/S PASSAGE...WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PERSISTING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. MODELS SHOWS THE SECOND FRONT BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
TRADE FLOW AS AN E-W ORIENTED BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
POTENTIALLY AFFECTS ISLAND WEATHER AROUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WITH TRADE WINDS BLOWING THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE WILL FOCUS ON
WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY ADVECT SOME OF THESE SHOWERS OVER TO
LEEWARD AREAS ON THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES HELPED TO KEEP THE ISLANDS CLEAR THIS
MORNING...WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF OAHU. THE LIGHT
BACKGROUND FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO FORM LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE
TEMPO MVFR AND POSSIBLE ISOL IFR CIGS AND VIS WITH TOPS RISING ABOVE
15 KFT THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. WINDWARD AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE ISOL
MVFR CIGS IS PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA /SCA/
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AFTER WHICH INCREASING TRADE WINDS MAY GET
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCA ISSUANCE FOR THE WINDIER MARINE ZONES
AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SURF WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG ALL SHORES OVER THE
NEXT WEEK...BUT SMALL SWELLS WILL PROVIDE SOME SURF. SMALL SWELLS
FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY/
THURSDAY...WITH A NNE SWELL POSSIBLE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TINY
LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE S WILL MAINTAIN SURF NEAR OR BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES ALONG S FACING SHORES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 192002
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO
DRIVE ISLAND WEATHER. IN THIS REGIME...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR AND MAUKA AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOONS...
FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL OVERNIGHT CLEARING. TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK... AND REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE MOST OF THE
WEEK...DELIVERING BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS. THE TRADE
WINDS MAY BECOME WETTER BY THURSDAY...AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAKENING FRONT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE AREA...WITH LIGHT
LARGE-SCALE WINDS CONTAINING AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. SURFACE HIGHS ARE
FAR NW AND NE OF THE ISLANDS...WHILE A SE-WARD DIGGING FRONT IS
NOTED ABOUT 750 MILES N OF KAUAI. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTAINS A
WEAK N-S TROUGH AXIS NEAR OAHU...WITH WEAK NE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH
AND WEAK SE WINDS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A PAIR OF TROPICAL
DISTURBANCES PASSING S AND SE OF THE BIG ISLAND CONTAIN DEEP
MOISTURE...WITH THE BIG ISLAND ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
MOISTURE. FOR TODAY...FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OF THIS MORNING /ASIDE FROM A SMALL CLUMP OF
SHOWERS THAT MOVED ASHORE S OAHU/. SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR AND MAUKA SECTIONS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVERGING SEA BREEZES DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO HEATING
OF THE ISLANDS. OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST AND RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND THUS TODAY/S CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO EXTEND TO THE SUMMITS OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...AND THERE IS A
DECENT CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY BUT ISOLATED DOWNPOURS STATEWIDE.

THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY LOOSE FOR LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO BE THE DOMINANT
FACTOR DRIVING ISLAND WEATHER...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT
AND IN THE MORNING...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING THAT LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ONE POTENTIAL
EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE SE AND WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND...
WHERE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCES TO THE S. A WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH PASSING N OF THE ISLANDS WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGING...WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ON SUNDAY. THUS THIS
WEEKEND/S AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD ALSO FEATURE SOME ISOLATED
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT MAY BE A LITTLE LESS LIKELY ON SUNDAY.

THE FRONT N OF THE ISLANDS TODAY WILL MOVE S THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT
WILL STALL N OF THE ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND...CONTRIBUTING TO THE
CONTINUED LIGHT WIND REGIME. LOCAL WATER TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE
WARM...CONTRIBUTING TO THE MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 70/S. A SECOND FRONT WILL DIG TOWARD THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PASSING N OF THE ISLANDS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS TRADE
WINDS INCREASING MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH/S PASSAGE...WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PERSISTING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. MODELS SHOWS THE SECOND FRONT BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
TRADE FLOW AS AN E-W ORIENTED BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
POTENTIALLY AFFECTS ISLAND WEATHER AROUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WITH TRADE WINDS BLOWING THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE WILL FOCUS ON
WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY ADVECT SOME OF THESE SHOWERS OVER TO
LEEWARD AREAS ON THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES HELPED TO KEEP THE ISLANDS CLEAR THIS
MORNING...WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF OAHU. THE LIGHT
BACKGROUND FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO FORM LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE
TEMPO MVFR AND POSSIBLE ISOL IFR CIGS AND VIS WITH TOPS RISING ABOVE
15 KFT THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. WINDWARD AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE ISOL
MVFR CIGS IS PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA /SCA/
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AFTER WHICH INCREASING TRADE WINDS MAY GET
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCA ISSUANCE FOR THE WINDIER MARINE ZONES
AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SURF WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG ALL SHORES OVER THE
NEXT WEEK...BUT SMALL SWELLS WILL PROVIDE SOME SURF. SMALL SWELLS
FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY/
THURSDAY...WITH A NNE SWELL POSSIBLE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TINY
LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE S WILL MAINTAIN SURF NEAR OR BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES ALONG S FACING SHORES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 191330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAND AND SEA
BREEZES TO FORM. EXPECT INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS MAUKA
AREAS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AT NIGHT.
HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE RETURN OF MODERATE
TRADE WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS MAY BRING AN UPTICK IN RAINFALL FOR THE BIG ISLAND TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR
37N138W THROUGH 30N160W AND 29N180W...600 MILES OR SO NORTH OF THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A FRONT DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN FLANK OF
THIS RIDGE BETWEEN 150W AND 170W WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE
ISLANDS...PUTTING A BIG DENT IN THE RIDGE AND KEEPING LOCAL TRADE
WINDS LIGHT AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED SLUGGISH 10 MPH EAST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS LOCAL
WATERS...AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS NOTED ACROSS MAUKA AREAS OF
THE ISLANDS YESTERDAY SHOWED THAT THIS LIGHT FLOW IS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED OVERNIGHT...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. LITTLE HAS CHANGED
SINCE YESTERDAY AND WE EXPECT A CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO REPEAT EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INCREASING EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING LATE AT NIGHT.

MODELS SHOW THE FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE EAST SUNDAY...ALLOWING THE
RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN TO OUR NORTH. WE EXPECT LIGHT TRADES WILL RETURN
TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MOST LEEWARD
AREAS WILL STILL EXPERIENCE SEA BREEZES AS THE TRADES FILTER IN.
RELIEF FROM THE CURRENT HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS SHOULD COME MONDAY
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND MODERATE TRADE WINDS BUILD
IN.

RAINFALL AND HUMIDITY MAY PICK UP OVER WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE SKIRTS BY TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK TRADE WIND FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY GENTLE SEA
BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST ALONG
WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...TOMORROW...AND BEYOND. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGERING THROUGH MOST OF
THE EVENING DUE TO DIURNAL CONVECTION. ISOLATED MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
IN PASSING SHOWERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY WINDWARD BIG ISLAND.
OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED ALL AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORT-
PERIOD 2-FOOT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER SMALL NW SWELL IS DUE WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TRADE WINDS
PICKING UP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...BEDAL











000
FXHW60 PHFO 191330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAND AND SEA
BREEZES TO FORM. EXPECT INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS MAUKA
AREAS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AT NIGHT.
HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE RETURN OF MODERATE
TRADE WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS MAY BRING AN UPTICK IN RAINFALL FOR THE BIG ISLAND TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR
37N138W THROUGH 30N160W AND 29N180W...600 MILES OR SO NORTH OF THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A FRONT DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN FLANK OF
THIS RIDGE BETWEEN 150W AND 170W WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE
ISLANDS...PUTTING A BIG DENT IN THE RIDGE AND KEEPING LOCAL TRADE
WINDS LIGHT AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED SLUGGISH 10 MPH EAST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS LOCAL
WATERS...AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS NOTED ACROSS MAUKA AREAS OF
THE ISLANDS YESTERDAY SHOWED THAT THIS LIGHT FLOW IS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED OVERNIGHT...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. LITTLE HAS CHANGED
SINCE YESTERDAY AND WE EXPECT A CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO REPEAT EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INCREASING EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING LATE AT NIGHT.

MODELS SHOW THE FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE EAST SUNDAY...ALLOWING THE
RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN TO OUR NORTH. WE EXPECT LIGHT TRADES WILL RETURN
TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MOST LEEWARD
AREAS WILL STILL EXPERIENCE SEA BREEZES AS THE TRADES FILTER IN.
RELIEF FROM THE CURRENT HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS SHOULD COME MONDAY
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND MODERATE TRADE WINDS BUILD
IN.

RAINFALL AND HUMIDITY MAY PICK UP OVER WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE SKIRTS BY TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK TRADE WIND FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY GENTLE SEA
BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST ALONG
WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...TOMORROW...AND BEYOND. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGERING THROUGH MOST OF
THE EVENING DUE TO DIURNAL CONVECTION. ISOLATED MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
IN PASSING SHOWERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY WINDWARD BIG ISLAND.
OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED ALL AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORT-
PERIOD 2-FOOT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER SMALL NW SWELL IS DUE WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TRADE WINDS
PICKING UP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...BEDAL












000
FXHW60 PHFO 190645
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAND AND SEA
BREEZES TO FORM. EXPECT INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS MAUKA
AREAS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AT NIGHT.
HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE RETURN OF MODERATE
TRADE WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS MAY BRING AN UPTICK IN RAINFALL FOR THE BIG ISLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR
36N141W THROUGH 30N160W AND 30N180W...600 MILES OR SO NORTH OF THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A FRONT DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN FLANK OF
THIS RIDGE BETWEEN 150W AND 170W WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE
ISLANDS...PUTTING A BIG DENT IN THE RIDGE AND KEEPING LOCAL TRADE
WINDS LIGHT AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED SLUGGISH 10 MPH EAST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS LOCAL
WATERS...AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS ACROSS MAUKA AREAS OF THE
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED THAT THIS LIGHT FLOW IS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS THE EVENING WEARS ON AND COOLING
SETS IN. WE EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO REPEAT EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INCREASING EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING LATE AT NIGHT.

MODELS SHOW THE FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE EAST SUNDAY...ALLOWING THE
RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN TO OUR NORTH. WE EXPECT LIGHT TRADES WILL RETURN
TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MOST LEEWARD
AREAS WILL STILL EXPERIENCE SEA BREEZES AS THE TRADES FILTER IN.
RELIEF FROM THE CURRENT HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS SHOULD COME MONDAY
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND MODERATE TRADE WINDS BUILD
IN.

RAINFALL AND HUMIDITY MAY PICK UP OVER WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN AREA
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SKIRTS BY TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE CLEARING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR LEEWARD COASTS
WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG
WINDWARD SLOPES. PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED ALL AREAS. ISOL MVFR CIGS
LIKELY IN PASSING SHOWERS...MAINLY WINDWARD BIG ISLAND.

SEA BREEZES AND INLAND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ALL ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORT-
PERIOD 2-FOOT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER SMALL NW SWELL IS DUE WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TRADE WINDS
PICKING UP NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...BEDAL










000
FXHW60 PHFO 190645
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAND AND SEA
BREEZES TO FORM. EXPECT INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS MAUKA
AREAS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AT NIGHT.
HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE RETURN OF MODERATE
TRADE WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS MAY BRING AN UPTICK IN RAINFALL FOR THE BIG ISLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR
36N141W THROUGH 30N160W AND 30N180W...600 MILES OR SO NORTH OF THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A FRONT DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN FLANK OF
THIS RIDGE BETWEEN 150W AND 170W WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE
ISLANDS...PUTTING A BIG DENT IN THE RIDGE AND KEEPING LOCAL TRADE
WINDS LIGHT AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED SLUGGISH 10 MPH EAST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS LOCAL
WATERS...AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS ACROSS MAUKA AREAS OF THE
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED THAT THIS LIGHT FLOW IS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS THE EVENING WEARS ON AND COOLING
SETS IN. WE EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO REPEAT EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INCREASING EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING LATE AT NIGHT.

MODELS SHOW THE FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE EAST SUNDAY...ALLOWING THE
RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN TO OUR NORTH. WE EXPECT LIGHT TRADES WILL RETURN
TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MOST LEEWARD
AREAS WILL STILL EXPERIENCE SEA BREEZES AS THE TRADES FILTER IN.
RELIEF FROM THE CURRENT HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS SHOULD COME MONDAY
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND MODERATE TRADE WINDS BUILD
IN.

RAINFALL AND HUMIDITY MAY PICK UP OVER WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN AREA
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SKIRTS BY TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE CLEARING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR LEEWARD COASTS
WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG
WINDWARD SLOPES. PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED ALL AREAS. ISOL MVFR CIGS
LIKELY IN PASSING SHOWERS...MAINLY WINDWARD BIG ISLAND.

SEA BREEZES AND INLAND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ALL ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORT-
PERIOD 2-FOOT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER SMALL NW SWELL IS DUE WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TRADE WINDS
PICKING UP NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...BEDAL











000
FXHW60 PHFO 190204
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
404 PM HST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BE DISRUPTED BY A
PASSING COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND OVERNIGHT LAND
BREEZES OCCURRING ACROSS THE STATE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SKIES CLEARING AT NIGHT. HOT AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE RETURN OF TRADE WINDS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS MAY
BRING AN UPTICK IN RAINFALL FOR THE BIG ISLAND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS
PREVAILING. SKIES OVER THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH SOME BENEFICIAL SHOWERS FALLING OVER SOME AREAS OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS EARLIER TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE IS PROVIDING ENOUGH OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PRODUCE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
ISLANDS. HOWEVER... THE HIGH WILL BE DISRUPTED BY A PASSING COLD
FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND ISLAND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES
DOMINATING. SO...EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOONS... WITH CLEARING AT NIGHT.

THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE EAST SUNDAY AND A RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD TO
OUR NORTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING LIGHT TRADES BACK TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE SUNDAY. MOST LEEWARD AREAS WILL STILL
EXPERIENCE SEA BREEZES AS THE TRADES FILTER IN. RELIEF FROM THE
HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS COMES MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES
TO THE NORTH AND MODERATE TRADE WINDS BLOW MORE COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE.

RAINFALL AND HUMIDITY MAY PICK UP OVER THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN AREA
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SKIRTS BY TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING HAVE ALLOWED FOR SHOWERS
WITH TOPS TO 15 KFT TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO MVFR AND ISOL
IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND
INTERIOR AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...INCLUDING
PHJR... PHNL... PHMK... PHNY TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO START
CLEARING UP WITH SUNSET. LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS OVERNIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET WITH VFR PREVAILING. ISOL MVFR IN
PASSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IS LIKELY ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES FOR
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
SMALL SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORT-
PERIOD 2-FOOT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER SMALL NW SWELL IS DUE WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TRADE WINDS
PICKING UP NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
EATON...AVIATION








000
FXHW60 PHFO 181952
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
952 AM HST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BE DISRUPTED BY A
PASSING COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND OVERNIGHT LAND
BREEZES OCCURRING ACROSS THE STATE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SKIES CLEARING AT NIGHT. HOT AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE RETURN OF TRADE WINDS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS MAY
BRING AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL OVER THE BIG ISLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. SKIES OVER THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING
WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE STATE WITH EXCEPTION OF WINDWARD OAHU
WHICH SAW SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DRIFTING OVERHEAD FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS. EXPECT CLOUDS OVER THE ISLANDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES WITH
WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZES EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE IS PROVIDING ENOUGH OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PRODUCE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
ISLANDS. HOWEVER... LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL
EASILY OVERCOME THE WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW. THE HIGH WILL BE DISRUPTED
FURTHER BY A PASSING COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CONTINUING
LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW. SO...EXPECT A SIMILAR PATTERN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOONS... AND CLEARING AT NIGHT.

THE FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY AND A RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD TO OUR NORTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING LIGHT TRADES BACK
TO THE STATE SUNDAY FROM EAST TO WEST. IF THE FORECAST HOLDS UP...
SUNDAY WOULD BE A TRANSITION DAY FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT
TRADE WINDS. MOST LEEWARD AREAS WILL STILL SEE SEA BREEZES AS THE
TRADES FILTER IN. MORE RELIEF FROM THE HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS COMES
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES TO THE NORTH AND MODERATE TRADE
WINDS BLOW MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE.

RAINFALL AND HUMIDITY MAY PICK UP OVER THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN AREA
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SKIRTS BY TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA BREEZES
TODAY. INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUD BUILDUPS AND
SHOWERS WITH ISOL MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE AREAS
SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT WITH SUNSET. ISOL MVFR IN PASSING CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS IS LIKELY ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL
PREVAIL AT ISLAND TERMINALS.


&&

.MARINE...
SMALL SWELLS WILL AFFECT ALMOST ALL SHORES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A SMALL BUT NEW SOUTHWEST SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD OF 15 TO
17 SECONDS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SMALL SWELL FROM THE NORTHEAST IS DUE IN TODAY...PEAKING FRIDAY.
THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER SMALL
NORTHWEST SWELL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
EATON...AVIATION







000
FXHW60 PHFO 181952
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
952 AM HST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BE DISRUPTED BY A
PASSING COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND OVERNIGHT LAND
BREEZES OCCURRING ACROSS THE STATE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SKIES CLEARING AT NIGHT. HOT AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE RETURN OF TRADE WINDS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS MAY
BRING AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL OVER THE BIG ISLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. SKIES OVER THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING
WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE STATE WITH EXCEPTION OF WINDWARD OAHU
WHICH SAW SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DRIFTING OVERHEAD FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS. EXPECT CLOUDS OVER THE ISLANDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES WITH
WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZES EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE IS PROVIDING ENOUGH OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PRODUCE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
ISLANDS. HOWEVER... LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL
EASILY OVERCOME THE WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW. THE HIGH WILL BE DISRUPTED
FURTHER BY A PASSING COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CONTINUING
LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW. SO...EXPECT A SIMILAR PATTERN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOONS... AND CLEARING AT NIGHT.

THE FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY AND A RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD TO OUR NORTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING LIGHT TRADES BACK
TO THE STATE SUNDAY FROM EAST TO WEST. IF THE FORECAST HOLDS UP...
SUNDAY WOULD BE A TRANSITION DAY FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT
TRADE WINDS. MOST LEEWARD AREAS WILL STILL SEE SEA BREEZES AS THE
TRADES FILTER IN. MORE RELIEF FROM THE HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS COMES
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES TO THE NORTH AND MODERATE TRADE
WINDS BLOW MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE.

RAINFALL AND HUMIDITY MAY PICK UP OVER THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN AREA
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SKIRTS BY TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA BREEZES
TODAY. INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUD BUILDUPS AND
SHOWERS WITH ISOL MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE AREAS
SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT WITH SUNSET. ISOL MVFR IN PASSING CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS IS LIKELY ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL
PREVAIL AT ISLAND TERMINALS.


&&

.MARINE...
SMALL SWELLS WILL AFFECT ALMOST ALL SHORES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A SMALL BUT NEW SOUTHWEST SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD OF 15 TO
17 SECONDS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SMALL SWELL FROM THE NORTHEAST IS DUE IN TODAY...PEAKING FRIDAY.
THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER SMALL
NORTHWEST SWELL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
EATON...AVIATION








000
FXHW60 PHFO 181657 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
657 AM HST THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISLAND SKIES HAVE CLEARED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LAND BREEZES
PUSHING MOST CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OFFSHORE. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP LIGHT TRADES ACROSS
THE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP WITH
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS RETURNING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP
GENERALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. INCREASING MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL OVER THE BIG
ISLAND LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED FAR N OF THE ALOHA
STATE...KEEPING WEAK TRADES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SAT.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO LOCATED N OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS
TO DEVELOP EACH DAY...WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

MEANWHILE...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE ACROSS THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
FRONT WILL FURTHER ERODE THE HIGH N OF THE ALOHA STATE AND ENHANCE
THE SEABREEZES. MOST THE RESULTING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCLUDE
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
VOLCANIC HAZE TO BUILD AROUND THE BIG ISLAND...BUT SO FAR IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH THE SMALLER ISLANDS AS THE LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
STILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE E.

FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST...MODELS SHOW A POSSIBLE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE S OF THE ISLANDS BY SUN...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWERS OVER THE BIG ISLAND. ALSO...THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLS ABOUT A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES N OF THE
ALOHA STATE AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
PRESENCE OF THE DECAYING FRONT TO THE N AND THE TROPICAL FEATURE
TO THE S MAY CAUSE AN INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH IN TURN COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN TRADE FLOW BY LATE
SUN AND INTO MON. REGARDLESS OF THIS SCENARIO...THE HIGH SHOULD
BEGIN INTENSIFYING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH STRONGER TRADES RETURNING
BY TUE/WED. THIS WILL BRING BACK A TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS OVER MAINLY COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING. LATER TODAY...THE LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL ALLOW LOCAL SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON EACH ISLAND FROM LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLOUD BUILD UPS AND
ISOL SHRA OVER MOST LEEWARD AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THE CONVERGENCE OF THESE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL SWELLS WILL AFFECT ALMOST ALL SHORES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A SMALL BUT NEW SOUTHWEST SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD OF 15 TO
17 SECONDS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SMALL SWELL FROM THE NORTHEAST IS DUE IN TODAY...PEAKING FRIDAY.
THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER SMALL
NORTHWEST SWELL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MORRISON









000
FXHW60 PHFO 181657 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
657 AM HST THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISLAND SKIES HAVE CLEARED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LAND BREEZES
PUSHING MOST CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OFFSHORE. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP LIGHT TRADES ACROSS
THE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP WITH
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS RETURNING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP
GENERALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. INCREASING MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL OVER THE BIG
ISLAND LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED FAR N OF THE ALOHA
STATE...KEEPING WEAK TRADES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SAT.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO LOCATED N OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS
TO DEVELOP EACH DAY...WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

MEANWHILE...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE ACROSS THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
FRONT WILL FURTHER ERODE THE HIGH N OF THE ALOHA STATE AND ENHANCE
THE SEABREEZES. MOST THE RESULTING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCLUDE
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
VOLCANIC HAZE TO BUILD AROUND THE BIG ISLAND...BUT SO FAR IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH THE SMALLER ISLANDS AS THE LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
STILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE E.

FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST...MODELS SHOW A POSSIBLE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE S OF THE ISLANDS BY SUN...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWERS OVER THE BIG ISLAND. ALSO...THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLS ABOUT A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES N OF THE
ALOHA STATE AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
PRESENCE OF THE DECAYING FRONT TO THE N AND THE TROPICAL FEATURE
TO THE S MAY CAUSE AN INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH IN TURN COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN TRADE FLOW BY LATE
SUN AND INTO MON. REGARDLESS OF THIS SCENARIO...THE HIGH SHOULD
BEGIN INTENSIFYING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH STRONGER TRADES RETURNING
BY TUE/WED. THIS WILL BRING BACK A TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS OVER MAINLY COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING. LATER TODAY...THE LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL ALLOW LOCAL SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON EACH ISLAND FROM LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLOUD BUILD UPS AND
ISOL SHRA OVER MOST LEEWARD AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THE CONVERGENCE OF THESE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL SWELLS WILL AFFECT ALMOST ALL SHORES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A SMALL BUT NEW SOUTHWEST SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD OF 15 TO
17 SECONDS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SMALL SWELL FROM THE NORTHEAST IS DUE IN TODAY...PEAKING FRIDAY.
THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER SMALL
NORTHWEST SWELL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MORRISON










000
FXHW60 PHFO 181330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP LIGHT TRADES ACROSS
THE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP WITH
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS RETURNING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP
GENERALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. INCREASING MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL OVER THE BIG
ISLAND LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED FAR N OF THE ALOHA
STATE...KEEPING WEAK TRADES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SAT. A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO LOCATED N OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. THIS
SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO
DEVELOP EACH DAY...WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

MEANWHILE...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE ACROSS THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
FRONT WILL FURTHER ERODE THE HIGH N OF THE ALOHA STATE AND ENHANCE
THE SEABREEZES. MOST THE RESULTING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCLUDE
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
VOLCANIC HAZE TO BUILD AROUND THE BIG ISLAND...BUT SO FAR IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH THE SMALLER ISLANDS AS THE LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
STILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE E.

FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST...MODELS SHOW A POSSIBLE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE S OF THE ISLANDS BY SUN...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWERS OVER THE BIG ISLAND. ALSO...THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLS ABOUT A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES N OF THE
ALOHA STATE AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
PRESENCE OF
THE DECAYING FRONT TO THE N AND THE TROPICAL FEATURE TO THE S MAY
CAUSE AN INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IN
TURN COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN TRADE FLOW BY LATE SUN AND INTO MON.
REGARDLESS OF THIS SCENARIO...THE HIGH SHOULD BEGIN INTENSIFYING
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH STRONGER TRADES RETURNING BY TUE/WED. THIS WILL
BRING BACK A TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FAVORING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VIS IN SHRA AND
LOWER CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CLOUDS CARRIED BY LIGHT TRADE
WINDS MAY AFFECT SOME WINDWARD FACING SLOPES AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
LATER TODAY...THE LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL ALLOW LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS DEVELOPING AGAIN ON EACH ISLAND FROM LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLOUD BUILD UPS AND ISOL SHRA OVER
MOST LEEWARD AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS A RESULT OF THE CONVERGENCE OF THESE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A PREVAILING MODERATE S SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
FRIDAY. A SMALL LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL KEEP SMALL SURF HEIGHTS
ALONG S FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A SMALL NW SWELL IS NOW ARRIVING...BUT SURF HEIGHTS OVER N FACING
SHORES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. NO OTHER MAJOR
SWELLS ARE IN THE FORECAST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...HOUSTON








000
FXHW60 PHFO 180630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TRADES WILL ALLOW FOR SEABREEZES TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS RETURNING EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS. THE LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP GENERALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASING MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN
RAINFALL OVER THE BIG ISLAND LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS CAN BE
OBSERVED ON RADAR DATA UPSTREAM OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...MOVING W/SW
TOWARDS THE ALOHA STATE. A WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION N OF
THE ISLANDS IS KEEPING GENTLE TRADES ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO...LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED
NEAR KAUAI...WHILE A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED N OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN.

SATELLITE DATA AND LATEST MIMIC/MOISTURE MODEL ANALYSES DEPICT A
SWATH OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS
UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS. THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP BRINGING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER THE ISLANDS TONIGHT WITH
BEST CHANCES OF RAINFALL OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS. SOME OF THE LARGER
SHOWERS COULD REACH LEEWARD LOCATIONS AT TIMES.

FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT BRINGING
A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ACROSS THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS FRONT WILL FURTHER ERODE THE HIGH TO THE N OF THE
ALOHA STATE AND ALLOW FOR STRONGER SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP
EACH DAY. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR VOLCANIC HAZE TO BUILD
AROUND THE BIG ISLAND...BUT SO FAR IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE
SMALLER ISLANDS AS THE LIGHT WINDS SHOULD STILL REMAIN GENERALLY
FROM THE E.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW A POSSIBLE TROPICAL FEATURE
PASSING TO THE S OF THE ISLANDS BY SUN...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS OVER THE BIG ISLAND. MEANWHILE...THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLS ABOUT A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES N OF THE
ALOHA STATE AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. THE PRESENCE OF THE DECAYING
FRONT TO THE N AND THE TROPICAL FEATURE TO THE S MAY CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IN TURN COULD
BRING AN INCREASE IN TRADE FLOW BY LATE SUN AND INTO MON. REGARDLESS
OF THIS SCENARIO...THE HIGH SHOULD BEGIN GAINING STRENGTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH STRONGER TRADES RETURNING BY TUE/WED. THIS WILL BRING
BACK A TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO REDUCED VIS IN SHRA AND LOWER CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CLOUDS MAY AFFECT SOME WINDWARD FACING SLOPES
AND HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE...LAND BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...SO VFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL AT ALL ISLAND TERMINALS.

THE LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
DEVELOPING AGAIN ON EACH ISLAND FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLOUD BUILD UPS AND ISOL SHRA OVER
MOST LEEWARD AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS A RESULT OF THE CONVERGENCE OF THESE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...
A PREVAILING MODERATE S SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
FRIDAY. A SMALL LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL BUILD TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP SMALL SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL ALSO DECREASE TONIGHT.

A SMALL NW SWELL IS NOW ARRIVING...BUT SURF HEIGHTS OVER N FACING
SHORES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. NO OTHER MAJOR
SWELLS ARE IN THE FORECAST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...HOUSTON








000
FXHW60 PHFO 180304 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
408 PM HST WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT
ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN. EXPECT LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO SET UP
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN WARM TEMPERATURE...
AFTERNOON CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
AFTERNOON CLOUDS BUT STABILITY WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS LIGHT. A
TROPICAL WAVE PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN
RAINFALL ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND WITH GENTLE TRADE WINDS RESUMING
ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUD BUILD UPS OVER THE
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL OVER MOST WINDWARD
SIDES. SCATTERED CLOUD ALSO PERSIST UPSTREAM OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS
WHICH ARE GENERALLY MOVING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
RADAR
IS PICKING UP ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER.
GENTLE TRADE WINDS OVER HAWAII ARE DRIVEN BY A 1021 MB SURFACE
HIGH LOCATED FAR TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.

ALOFT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR KAUAI...WITH A LARGE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. MIMIC-
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRIPE OF
HIGHER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS JUST NORTH OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE IS MOVING TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS KAUAI AND OAHU. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS DEPICT A
RATHER TYPICAL PROFILE...WITH INVERSIONS BASED AROUND 8000
FEET...AND NEAR NORMAL PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.3 AND 1.5 INCHES.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO DECREASE AS LAND
BREEZES OVER POWER THE WEAK TRADE WIND FLOW. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN THE HIGH NORTH OF
US...AND RESULT IN A PURE SEA AND LAND BREEZE PATTERN. THIS
PATTERN WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS WILL SEE CLOUD BUILD UPS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR AREAS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW VOLCANIC HAZE TO BUILD
UP AROUND THE BIG ISLAND...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE FLOW TO CARRY THE HAZE OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

GFS AND ECMWF COMING INTO LINE FOR A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING SOUTH
OF THE STATE SUNDAY...WITH BOTH MODELS SUGGESTING THAT NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BARELY BRUSH ACROSS THE BIG
ISLAND. THIS MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AT THIS TIME.

IT ALSO APPEARS THE EARLIER MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT
AND DISSIPATE ABOUT 300 MILES NORTH OF THE STATE. THE INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH...AND A
NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BETWEEN THE ISLANDS AND A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH SHOULD INDUCE SOME INCREASE IN
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE DURING BY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY STRENGTHEN BEHIND THIS WEAKENING FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHING
OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY MIDWEEK. LOOK FOR A SLOW UPTICK IN
THE TRADE WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AT THAT
TIME...SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO FOCUS BACK ONTO WINDWARD SIDES OF THE
ISLANDS.


&&

.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT...ISOL MVFR SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL MAINLY AFFECT
WINDWARD AREAS. THE LOCALIZED CLOUD BUILDUPS AND SHOWERS OVER
LEEWARD AREAS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WITH SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL ISLAND TERMINALS.


&&

.MARINE...
BUOY READINGS AT BARBERS POINT HAVE SHOWN A SMALL DROP OFF IN SWELL
HEIGHTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SWELL WILL SLOWLY FADE AWAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A SMALL LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL BUILD IN THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP SMALL SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL
ALSO DECREASE TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVED LATE YESTERDAY...AS
INDICATED BY WAIMEA BAY BUOY DATA. ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL ARRIVE LATER TODAY...BUT SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. NO OTHER MAJOR SWELLS ARE IN
THE FORECAST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED. THE TRADE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN MONDAY.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON









000
FXHW60 PHFO 180304 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
408 PM HST WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT
ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN. EXPECT LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO SET UP
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN WARM TEMPERATURE...
AFTERNOON CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
AFTERNOON CLOUDS BUT STABILITY WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS LIGHT. A
TROPICAL WAVE PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN
RAINFALL ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND WITH GENTLE TRADE WINDS RESUMING
ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUD BUILD UPS OVER THE
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL OVER MOST WINDWARD
SIDES. SCATTERED CLOUD ALSO PERSIST UPSTREAM OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS
WHICH ARE GENERALLY MOVING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
RADAR
IS PICKING UP ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER.
GENTLE TRADE WINDS OVER HAWAII ARE DRIVEN BY A 1021 MB SURFACE
HIGH LOCATED FAR TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.

ALOFT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR KAUAI...WITH A LARGE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. MIMIC-
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRIPE OF
HIGHER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS JUST NORTH OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE IS MOVING TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS KAUAI AND OAHU. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS DEPICT A
RATHER TYPICAL PROFILE...WITH INVERSIONS BASED AROUND 8000
FEET...AND NEAR NORMAL PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.3 AND 1.5 INCHES.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO DECREASE AS LAND
BREEZES OVER POWER THE WEAK TRADE WIND FLOW. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN THE HIGH NORTH OF
US...AND RESULT IN A PURE SEA AND LAND BREEZE PATTERN. THIS
PATTERN WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS WILL SEE CLOUD BUILD UPS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR AREAS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW VOLCANIC HAZE TO BUILD
UP AROUND THE BIG ISLAND...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE FLOW TO CARRY THE HAZE OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

GFS AND ECMWF COMING INTO LINE FOR A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING SOUTH
OF THE STATE SUNDAY...WITH BOTH MODELS SUGGESTING THAT NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BARELY BRUSH ACROSS THE BIG
ISLAND. THIS MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AT THIS TIME.

IT ALSO APPEARS THE EARLIER MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT
AND DISSIPATE ABOUT 300 MILES NORTH OF THE STATE. THE INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH...AND A
NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BETWEEN THE ISLANDS AND A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH SHOULD INDUCE SOME INCREASE IN
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE DURING BY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY STRENGTHEN BEHIND THIS WEAKENING FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHING
OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY MIDWEEK. LOOK FOR A SLOW UPTICK IN
THE TRADE WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AT THAT
TIME...SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO FOCUS BACK ONTO WINDWARD SIDES OF THE
ISLANDS.


&&

.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT...ISOL MVFR SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL MAINLY AFFECT
WINDWARD AREAS. THE LOCALIZED CLOUD BUILDUPS AND SHOWERS OVER
LEEWARD AREAS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WITH SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL ISLAND TERMINALS.


&&

.MARINE...
BUOY READINGS AT BARBERS POINT HAVE SHOWN A SMALL DROP OFF IN SWELL
HEIGHTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SWELL WILL SLOWLY FADE AWAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A SMALL LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL BUILD IN THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP SMALL SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL
ALSO DECREASE TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVED LATE YESTERDAY...AS
INDICATED BY WAIMEA BAY BUOY DATA. ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL ARRIVE LATER TODAY...BUT SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. NO OTHER MAJOR SWELLS ARE IN
THE FORECAST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED. THE TRADE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN MONDAY.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON










000
FXHW60 PHFO 180208
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
408 PM HST WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT
ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN. EXPECT LAND AND BREEZES TO SET UP
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN WARM TEMPERATURE...AFTERNOON
CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE AFTERNOON
CLOUDS BUT STABILITY WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS LIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL ACROSS
THE BIG ISLAND WITH GENTLE TRADE WINDS RESUMING ACROSS THE STATE
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUD BUILD UPS OVER THE
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL OVER MOST WINDWARD
SIDES. SCATTERED CLOUD ALSO PERSIST UPSTREAM OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS
WHICH ARE GENERALLY MOVING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. RADAR
IS PICKING UP ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER.
GENTLE TRADE WINDS OVER HAWAII ARE DRIVEN BY A 1021 MB SURFACE
HIGH LOCATED FAR TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.

ALOFT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR KAUAI...WITH A LARGE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. MIMIC-
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRIPE OF
HIGHER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS JUST NORTH OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE IS MOVING TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS KAUAI AND OAHU. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS DEPICT A
RATHER TYPICAL PROFILE...WITH INVERSIONS BASED AROUND 8000
FEET...AND NEAR NORMAL PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.3 AND 1.5 INCHES.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO DECREASE AS LAND
BREEZES OVER POWER THE WEAK TRADE WIND FLOW. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN THE HIGH NORTH OF
US...AND RESULT IN A PURE SEA AND LAND BREEZE PATTERN. THIS
PATTERN WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS WILL SEE CLOUD BUILD UPS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR AREAS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW VOLCANIC HAZE TO BUILD
UP AROUND THE BIG ISLAND...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE FLOW TO CARRY THE HAZE OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

GFS AND ECMWF COMING INTO LINE FOR A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING SOUTH
OF THE STATE SUNDAY...WITH BOTH MODELS SUGGESTING THAT NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BARELY BRUSH ACROSS THE BIG
ISLAND. THIS MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AT THIS TIME.

IT ALSO APPEARS THE EARLIER MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT
AND DISSIPATE ABOUT 300 MILES NORTH OF THE STATE. THE INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH...AND A
NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BETWEEN THE ISLANDS AND A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH SHOULD INDUCE SOME INCREASE IN
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE DURING BY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY STRENGTHEN BEHIND THIS WEAKENING FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHING
OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY MIDWEEK. LOOK FOR A SLOW UPTICK IN
THE TRADE WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AT THAT
TIME...SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO FOCUS BACK ONTO WINDWARD SIDES OF THE
ISLANDS.


&&

.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT...ISOL MVFR SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL MAINLY AFFECT
WINDWARD AREAS. THE LOCALIZED CLOUD BUILDUPS AND SHOWERS OVER
LEEWARD AREAS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WITH SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL ISLAND TERMINALS.


&&

.MARINE...
BUOY READINGS AT BARBERS POINT HAVE SHOWN A SMALL DROP OFF IN SWELL
HEIGHTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SWELL WILL SLOWLY FADE AWAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A SMALL LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL BUILD IN THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP SMALL SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL
ALSO DECREASE TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVED LATE YESTERDAY...AS
INDICATED BY WAIMEA BAY BUOY DATA. ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL ARRIVE LATER TODAY...BUT SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. NO OTHER MAJOR SWELLS ARE IN
THE FORECAST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED. THE TRADE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN MONDAY.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 172002
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1002 AM HST WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...WITH LOCALIZED
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZES
ALONG WITH AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT
WILL KEEP MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING
SOUTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND...WITH GENTLE TRADE WINDS RESUMING ACROSS
THE STATE BY THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE ISLANDS WHILE
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE LOCATED MAINLY OVER THE WINDWARD WATERS
OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS THIS MORNING. RADAR IS PICKING UP ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN THESE CLOUDS WHICH ARE GENERALLY MOVING NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. GENTLE TRADE WINDS OVER HAWAII ARE
DRIVEN BY A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED FAR TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.

ALOFT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR KAUAI...WITH A
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPRAWLING NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION FROM
WEST OF THE DATELINE TO NEAR 160W. MIMIC-TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
/PW/ SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRIPE OF HIGHER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS JUST NORTH OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THIS
AREA OF MOISTURE IS MOVING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS KAUAI AND
OAHU. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS DEPICT A RATHER TYPICAL PROFILE...WITH
INVERSIONS BASED AROUND 7000 FEET...AND NEAR NORMAL PW VALUES
BETWEEN 1.3 AND 1.5 INCHES.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE STATE. THE LIGHT
TRADE WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR LEEWARD SEA BREEZES TO OVER POWER
THE FLOW RESULTING IN AFTERNOON CLOUDS OVER LEEWARD / INTERIOR
SECTIONS. A FEW LEEWARD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON TIME
PARTICULARLY ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE TO THE
NORTH ADVECTING IN TODAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND....THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND QUICKLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC.
THE RESULT WILL BE EVEN LIGHTER WINDS AND A PURE SEA AND LAND
BREEZE PATTERN. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW VOLCANIC HAZE
TO BUILD UP AROUND THE BIG ISLAND...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE FLOW TO CARRY THE
HAZE OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

GFS AND ECMWF COMING INTO LINE FOR A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING SOUTH
OF THE STATE SUNDAY...WITH BOTH MODELS SUGGESTING THAT NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BARELY BRUSH ACROSS THE BIG
ISLAND. THIS MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. IT
ALSO APPEARS THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND DISSIPATE ABOUT 300
MILES NORTH OF THE STATE. THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOWER PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH...AND A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BETWEEN THE ISLANDS AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH
SHOULD INDUCE SOME INCREASE IN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE DURING
BY MONDAY.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FURTHER FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND BEYOND...WHEN
THE GFS DROPS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC...WEAKENING AND VEERING OUR LOCAL WIND FLOW TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST. THE ECMWF HAS A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTION FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC...CAUSING INCREASING TRADES OVER THE STATE. WILL HAVE TO
AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY RESOLVE THESE
DIFFERENCES.


&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT TRADE WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. LOCALLY...
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP... PRODUCING INTERIOR CLOUD BUILDUPS AND
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET.
OTHERWISE... CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FOCUS OVER WINDWARD SLOPES...
BEING MOST PREVALENT DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BARBERS POINT BUOY THIS MORNING SHOW THE
SOUTH SWELL CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DECLINE...WITH PEAK ENERGY VALUES
GRADUALLY SHIFTING INTO THE SHORTER WAVE PERIOD BANDS. THIS SWELL
WILL SLOWLY FADE AWAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THROUGH TODAY...BUT SHOULD
STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. ANOTHER SMALL SOUTH SWELL WILL BUILD
IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVED LATE YESTERDAY...AS
INDICATED BY WAIMEA BAY BUOY DATA. ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL ARRIVE LATER TODAY...BUT SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

AN 0806Z ASCAT PASS FOUND GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS...WITH A SMALL AREA OF WINDS
GREATER THAN 15 KNOTS IN THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL. THESE WILL
PROBABLY BE THE STRONGEST WINDS SEEN IN OUR WATERS THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DECREASING
LATER TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 172002
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1002 AM HST WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...WITH LOCALIZED
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZES
ALONG WITH AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT
WILL KEEP MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING
SOUTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND...WITH GENTLE TRADE WINDS RESUMING ACROSS
THE STATE BY THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE ISLANDS WHILE
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE LOCATED MAINLY OVER THE WINDWARD WATERS
OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS THIS MORNING. RADAR IS PICKING UP ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN THESE CLOUDS WHICH ARE GENERALLY MOVING NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. GENTLE TRADE WINDS OVER HAWAII ARE
DRIVEN BY A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED FAR TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.

ALOFT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR KAUAI...WITH A
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPRAWLING NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION FROM
WEST OF THE DATELINE TO NEAR 160W. MIMIC-TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
/PW/ SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRIPE OF HIGHER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS JUST NORTH OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THIS
AREA OF MOISTURE IS MOVING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS KAUAI AND
OAHU. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS DEPICT A RATHER TYPICAL PROFILE...WITH
INVERSIONS BASED AROUND 7000 FEET...AND NEAR NORMAL PW VALUES
BETWEEN 1.3 AND 1.5 INCHES.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE STATE. THE LIGHT
TRADE WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR LEEWARD SEA BREEZES TO OVER POWER
THE FLOW RESULTING IN AFTERNOON CLOUDS OVER LEEWARD / INTERIOR
SECTIONS. A FEW LEEWARD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON TIME
PARTICULARLY ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE TO THE
NORTH ADVECTING IN TODAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND....THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND QUICKLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC.
THE RESULT WILL BE EVEN LIGHTER WINDS AND A PURE SEA AND LAND
BREEZE PATTERN. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW VOLCANIC HAZE
TO BUILD UP AROUND THE BIG ISLAND...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE FLOW TO CARRY THE
HAZE OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

GFS AND ECMWF COMING INTO LINE FOR A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING SOUTH
OF THE STATE SUNDAY...WITH BOTH MODELS SUGGESTING THAT NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BARELY BRUSH ACROSS THE BIG
ISLAND. THIS MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. IT
ALSO APPEARS THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND DISSIPATE ABOUT 300
MILES NORTH OF THE STATE. THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOWER PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH...AND A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BETWEEN THE ISLANDS AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH
SHOULD INDUCE SOME INCREASE IN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE DURING
BY MONDAY.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FURTHER FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND BEYOND...WHEN
THE GFS DROPS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC...WEAKENING AND VEERING OUR LOCAL WIND FLOW TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST. THE ECMWF HAS A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTION FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC...CAUSING INCREASING TRADES OVER THE STATE. WILL HAVE TO
AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY RESOLVE THESE
DIFFERENCES.


&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT TRADE WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. LOCALLY...
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP... PRODUCING INTERIOR CLOUD BUILDUPS AND
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET.
OTHERWISE... CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FOCUS OVER WINDWARD SLOPES...
BEING MOST PREVALENT DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BARBERS POINT BUOY THIS MORNING SHOW THE
SOUTH SWELL CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DECLINE...WITH PEAK ENERGY VALUES
GRADUALLY SHIFTING INTO THE SHORTER WAVE PERIOD BANDS. THIS SWELL
WILL SLOWLY FADE AWAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THROUGH TODAY...BUT SHOULD
STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. ANOTHER SMALL SOUTH SWELL WILL BUILD
IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVED LATE YESTERDAY...AS
INDICATED BY WAIMEA BAY BUOY DATA. ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL ARRIVE LATER TODAY...BUT SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

AN 0806Z ASCAT PASS FOUND GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS...WITH A SMALL AREA OF WINDS
GREATER THAN 15 KNOTS IN THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL. THESE WILL
PROBABLY BE THE STRONGEST WINDS SEEN IN OUR WATERS THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DECREASING
LATER TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON






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