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000
FXHW60 PHFO 052001
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1001 AM HST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. A STABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL FOCUS SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES INTO THE
WEEKEND. ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL LINGER JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE AND MAY
BRING INCREASING SHOWERS TO MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND TURN NORTH
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PUSH EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND TODAY. GUSTY NNE ARE BRINGING A COOL
AIRMASS OVER THE STATE WITH SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS PUSHING INTO
WINDWARD AREAS. NORTHEAST TRADES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING WINDWARD AREAS. DECREASING WINDS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH FORMS NORTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND AND AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
STATE. THE WEAKENING WINDS WILL ALLOW TROPICAL MOISTURE TO AGAIN
INFILTRATE THE BIG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY MAUI AREAS... INCREASING
THE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY SHOWERS FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. UNDER THIS SCENARIO DRIER WEATHER WOULD
REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF.

A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS WILL COME AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE PARENT TROUGH MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SHORTWAVE
DISCUSSED ABOVE WITH LESS AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT WAVE COMING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL INCREASE WINDS
OVER THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LONG-LIVED WIND WARNING AS THE TROUGH REMAINS IN
PLACE.


&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO IN EFFECT FOR HIGH LEVEL MOD TURB DUE TO STRONG WINDS
ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE. AN AIRMET IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL
TURB OVER LEEWARD KAUAI. BOTH AIRMETS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN EFFECT
AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY.

LAYERED HIGH CLOUDS MAY PRODUCE LIGHT ICING OVER THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH THE MORNING. AIRMET ZULU IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND BUT
THIS THREAT WILL END LATER TODAY AS THESE CLOUDS MOVE SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA.

EXPECT PERIODS OF ISOL MVFR CIGS MAINLY OVER WINDWARD PARTS OF THE
ISLAND...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY.


&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS OVER TYPICALLY WINDIER COASTAL WATERS AROUND THE
STATE. ROUGH SURF WILL BUILD ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES LATER IN THE
WEEK. A NORTH SWELL ARRIVING SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL
SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES MONDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA
BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

MORRISON








000
FXHW60 PHFO 052001
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1001 AM HST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. A STABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL FOCUS SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES INTO THE
WEEKEND. ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL LINGER JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE AND MAY
BRING INCREASING SHOWERS TO MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND TURN NORTH
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PUSH EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND TODAY. GUSTY NNE ARE BRINGING A COOL
AIRMASS OVER THE STATE WITH SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS PUSHING INTO
WINDWARD AREAS. NORTHEAST TRADES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING WINDWARD AREAS. DECREASING WINDS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH FORMS NORTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND AND AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
STATE. THE WEAKENING WINDS WILL ALLOW TROPICAL MOISTURE TO AGAIN
INFILTRATE THE BIG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY MAUI AREAS... INCREASING
THE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY SHOWERS FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. UNDER THIS SCENARIO DRIER WEATHER WOULD
REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF.

A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS WILL COME AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE PARENT TROUGH MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SHORTWAVE
DISCUSSED ABOVE WITH LESS AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT WAVE COMING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL INCREASE WINDS
OVER THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LONG-LIVED WIND WARNING AS THE TROUGH REMAINS IN
PLACE.


&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO IN EFFECT FOR HIGH LEVEL MOD TURB DUE TO STRONG WINDS
ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE. AN AIRMET IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL
TURB OVER LEEWARD KAUAI. BOTH AIRMETS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN EFFECT
AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY.

LAYERED HIGH CLOUDS MAY PRODUCE LIGHT ICING OVER THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH THE MORNING. AIRMET ZULU IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND BUT
THIS THREAT WILL END LATER TODAY AS THESE CLOUDS MOVE SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA.

EXPECT PERIODS OF ISOL MVFR CIGS MAINLY OVER WINDWARD PARTS OF THE
ISLAND...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY.


&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS OVER TYPICALLY WINDIER COASTAL WATERS AROUND THE
STATE. ROUGH SURF WILL BUILD ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES LATER IN THE
WEEK. A NORTH SWELL ARRIVING SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL
SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES MONDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA
BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

MORRISON









000
FXHW60 PHFO 051338
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AIR MASS WITH LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND FROM
NIIHAU TO MAUI. SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK...
AND WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER WINDWARD SLOPES. OVER THE BIG ISLAND...
THE RAIN AND DEEP CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT. ANOTHER RAIN BAND
MAY AFFECT THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP CLOUD LAYERS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST...EXPOSING THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI...BUT REMAINING THICK OVER THE BIG
ISLAND. SHALLOWER STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS FILLED IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE
DEEP LAYERS THOUGH...KEEPING MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS THAN EXPECTED EARLIER. THANKS TO OROGRAPHIC FORCING...THESE
LOWER CLOUDS STILL MANAGED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS. POPS...CLOUDS...AND RELATED FIELDS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. OVER THE BIG ISLAND...THE AIR MASS REMAINED
RELATIVELY MOIST...AND CERTAINLY SATURATED...THROUGH A LARGE PART OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. WINDS ACROSS THE STATE WERE A LITTLE TOO NORTHERLY
TO BE CALLED PROPER TRADE WINDS...AND SPEEDS TOO HIGH TO BE CALLED
TYPICAL.

ALOFT...THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE BROADER
LOW LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST CONTRIBUTED TO THE INSTABILITY
DRIVING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE...THOUGH THE TROUGH HAD BECOME
LESS SHARPLY DEFINED OVERNIGHT.

ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CLOUD LAYERS HAVE LEFT MAUI COUNTY...SOME
SOLUTIONS PORTRAYED A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD
COVER THERE. ONE POSSIBILITY MAY BE THAT THE CLOUD LAYERS WILL SHIFT
NORTH AGAIN BRIEFLY...AS SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTED...BEFORE FRAYING
SLOWLY THERE AND OVER THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH SHOWERS FOLLOWING THIS TREND AS WELL. IN
ANY CASE...KAUAI COUNTY AND OAHU WILL SPEND MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK UNDER THE COLD-AIR CUMULI...AND PERHAPS THE SHOWERY
STRATOCUMULI.

GUIDANCE GENERALLY PREDICTED A PAIR OF FRONTS TO CRASH INTO THE
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH...DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS SLOWLY OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE NEXT 60 HOURS. WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REMAIN A
LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF CLIMATOLOGY THOUGH.

SOLUTIONS STARTED TO DRIFT APART BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME
MODELS PREDICTED A LOBE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW TO SWEEP OVER THE
ISLANDS AGAIN...PROVIDING UPLIFT AND REDUCING STABILITY. GUIDANCE
DID AGREE THAT WATER VAPOR WOULD ACCUMULATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
BETWEEN THE AIR MASSES AGAIN BY THAT TIME. THE SUPPORT FROM ALOFT
MAY ENABLE THE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT NORTH OVER THE STATE AGAIN...
POTENTIALLY BRINGING A REPEAT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...RECENT
RUNS HAVE TENDED TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY...AND THUS THE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...SOUTH OF THE STATE.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS OVER TYPICALLY WINDIER COASTAL WATERS AROUND THE STATE.
ROUGH SURF WILL BUILD ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES LATER IN THE WEEK...
POSSIBLY REQUIRING A HIGH SURF ADVISORY. A NORTH SWELL ARRIVING
SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES.
OTHERWISE...SURF SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA
BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

RYSHKO







000
FXHW60 PHFO 051338
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AIR MASS WITH LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND FROM
NIIHAU TO MAUI. SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK...
AND WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER WINDWARD SLOPES. OVER THE BIG ISLAND...
THE RAIN AND DEEP CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT. ANOTHER RAIN BAND
MAY AFFECT THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP CLOUD LAYERS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST...EXPOSING THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI...BUT REMAINING THICK OVER THE BIG
ISLAND. SHALLOWER STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS FILLED IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE
DEEP LAYERS THOUGH...KEEPING MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS THAN EXPECTED EARLIER. THANKS TO OROGRAPHIC FORCING...THESE
LOWER CLOUDS STILL MANAGED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS. POPS...CLOUDS...AND RELATED FIELDS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. OVER THE BIG ISLAND...THE AIR MASS REMAINED
RELATIVELY MOIST...AND CERTAINLY SATURATED...THROUGH A LARGE PART OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. WINDS ACROSS THE STATE WERE A LITTLE TOO NORTHERLY
TO BE CALLED PROPER TRADE WINDS...AND SPEEDS TOO HIGH TO BE CALLED
TYPICAL.

ALOFT...THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE BROADER
LOW LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST CONTRIBUTED TO THE INSTABILITY
DRIVING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE...THOUGH THE TROUGH HAD BECOME
LESS SHARPLY DEFINED OVERNIGHT.

ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CLOUD LAYERS HAVE LEFT MAUI COUNTY...SOME
SOLUTIONS PORTRAYED A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD
COVER THERE. ONE POSSIBILITY MAY BE THAT THE CLOUD LAYERS WILL SHIFT
NORTH AGAIN BRIEFLY...AS SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTED...BEFORE FRAYING
SLOWLY THERE AND OVER THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH SHOWERS FOLLOWING THIS TREND AS WELL. IN
ANY CASE...KAUAI COUNTY AND OAHU WILL SPEND MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK UNDER THE COLD-AIR CUMULI...AND PERHAPS THE SHOWERY
STRATOCUMULI.

GUIDANCE GENERALLY PREDICTED A PAIR OF FRONTS TO CRASH INTO THE
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH...DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS SLOWLY OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE NEXT 60 HOURS. WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REMAIN A
LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF CLIMATOLOGY THOUGH.

SOLUTIONS STARTED TO DRIFT APART BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME
MODELS PREDICTED A LOBE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW TO SWEEP OVER THE
ISLANDS AGAIN...PROVIDING UPLIFT AND REDUCING STABILITY. GUIDANCE
DID AGREE THAT WATER VAPOR WOULD ACCUMULATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
BETWEEN THE AIR MASSES AGAIN BY THAT TIME. THE SUPPORT FROM ALOFT
MAY ENABLE THE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT NORTH OVER THE STATE AGAIN...
POTENTIALLY BRINGING A REPEAT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...RECENT
RUNS HAVE TENDED TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY...AND THUS THE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...SOUTH OF THE STATE.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS OVER TYPICALLY WINDIER COASTAL WATERS AROUND THE STATE.
ROUGH SURF WILL BUILD ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES LATER IN THE WEEK...
POSSIBLY REQUIRING A HIGH SURF ADVISORY. A NORTH SWELL ARRIVING
SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES.
OTHERWISE...SURF SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA
BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

RYSHKO






000
FXHW60 PHFO 051338
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AIR MASS WITH LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND FROM
NIIHAU TO MAUI. SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK...
AND WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER WINDWARD SLOPES. OVER THE BIG ISLAND...
THE RAIN AND DEEP CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT. ANOTHER RAIN BAND
MAY AFFECT THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP CLOUD LAYERS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST...EXPOSING THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI...BUT REMAINING THICK OVER THE BIG
ISLAND. SHALLOWER STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS FILLED IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE
DEEP LAYERS THOUGH...KEEPING MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS THAN EXPECTED EARLIER. THANKS TO OROGRAPHIC FORCING...THESE
LOWER CLOUDS STILL MANAGED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS. POPS...CLOUDS...AND RELATED FIELDS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. OVER THE BIG ISLAND...THE AIR MASS REMAINED
RELATIVELY MOIST...AND CERTAINLY SATURATED...THROUGH A LARGE PART OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. WINDS ACROSS THE STATE WERE A LITTLE TOO NORTHERLY
TO BE CALLED PROPER TRADE WINDS...AND SPEEDS TOO HIGH TO BE CALLED
TYPICAL.

ALOFT...THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE BROADER
LOW LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST CONTRIBUTED TO THE INSTABILITY
DRIVING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE...THOUGH THE TROUGH HAD BECOME
LESS SHARPLY DEFINED OVERNIGHT.

ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CLOUD LAYERS HAVE LEFT MAUI COUNTY...SOME
SOLUTIONS PORTRAYED A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD
COVER THERE. ONE POSSIBILITY MAY BE THAT THE CLOUD LAYERS WILL SHIFT
NORTH AGAIN BRIEFLY...AS SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTED...BEFORE FRAYING
SLOWLY THERE AND OVER THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH SHOWERS FOLLOWING THIS TREND AS WELL. IN
ANY CASE...KAUAI COUNTY AND OAHU WILL SPEND MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK UNDER THE COLD-AIR CUMULI...AND PERHAPS THE SHOWERY
STRATOCUMULI.

GUIDANCE GENERALLY PREDICTED A PAIR OF FRONTS TO CRASH INTO THE
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH...DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS SLOWLY OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE NEXT 60 HOURS. WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REMAIN A
LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF CLIMATOLOGY THOUGH.

SOLUTIONS STARTED TO DRIFT APART BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME
MODELS PREDICTED A LOBE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW TO SWEEP OVER THE
ISLANDS AGAIN...PROVIDING UPLIFT AND REDUCING STABILITY. GUIDANCE
DID AGREE THAT WATER VAPOR WOULD ACCUMULATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
BETWEEN THE AIR MASSES AGAIN BY THAT TIME. THE SUPPORT FROM ALOFT
MAY ENABLE THE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT NORTH OVER THE STATE AGAIN...
POTENTIALLY BRINGING A REPEAT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...RECENT
RUNS HAVE TENDED TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY...AND THUS THE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...SOUTH OF THE STATE.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS OVER TYPICALLY WINDIER COASTAL WATERS AROUND THE STATE.
ROUGH SURF WILL BUILD ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES LATER IN THE WEEK...
POSSIBLY REQUIRING A HIGH SURF ADVISORY. A NORTH SWELL ARRIVING
SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES.
OTHERWISE...SURF SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA
BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

RYSHKO






000
FXHW60 PHFO 051338
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AIR MASS WITH LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND FROM
NIIHAU TO MAUI. SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK...
AND WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER WINDWARD SLOPES. OVER THE BIG ISLAND...
THE RAIN AND DEEP CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT. ANOTHER RAIN BAND
MAY AFFECT THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP CLOUD LAYERS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST...EXPOSING THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI...BUT REMAINING THICK OVER THE BIG
ISLAND. SHALLOWER STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS FILLED IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE
DEEP LAYERS THOUGH...KEEPING MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS THAN EXPECTED EARLIER. THANKS TO OROGRAPHIC FORCING...THESE
LOWER CLOUDS STILL MANAGED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS. POPS...CLOUDS...AND RELATED FIELDS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. OVER THE BIG ISLAND...THE AIR MASS REMAINED
RELATIVELY MOIST...AND CERTAINLY SATURATED...THROUGH A LARGE PART OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. WINDS ACROSS THE STATE WERE A LITTLE TOO NORTHERLY
TO BE CALLED PROPER TRADE WINDS...AND SPEEDS TOO HIGH TO BE CALLED
TYPICAL.

ALOFT...THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE BROADER
LOW LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST CONTRIBUTED TO THE INSTABILITY
DRIVING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE...THOUGH THE TROUGH HAD BECOME
LESS SHARPLY DEFINED OVERNIGHT.

ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CLOUD LAYERS HAVE LEFT MAUI COUNTY...SOME
SOLUTIONS PORTRAYED A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD
COVER THERE. ONE POSSIBILITY MAY BE THAT THE CLOUD LAYERS WILL SHIFT
NORTH AGAIN BRIEFLY...AS SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTED...BEFORE FRAYING
SLOWLY THERE AND OVER THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH SHOWERS FOLLOWING THIS TREND AS WELL. IN
ANY CASE...KAUAI COUNTY AND OAHU WILL SPEND MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK UNDER THE COLD-AIR CUMULI...AND PERHAPS THE SHOWERY
STRATOCUMULI.

GUIDANCE GENERALLY PREDICTED A PAIR OF FRONTS TO CRASH INTO THE
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH...DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS SLOWLY OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE NEXT 60 HOURS. WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REMAIN A
LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF CLIMATOLOGY THOUGH.

SOLUTIONS STARTED TO DRIFT APART BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME
MODELS PREDICTED A LOBE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW TO SWEEP OVER THE
ISLANDS AGAIN...PROVIDING UPLIFT AND REDUCING STABILITY. GUIDANCE
DID AGREE THAT WATER VAPOR WOULD ACCUMULATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
BETWEEN THE AIR MASSES AGAIN BY THAT TIME. THE SUPPORT FROM ALOFT
MAY ENABLE THE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT NORTH OVER THE STATE AGAIN...
POTENTIALLY BRINGING A REPEAT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...RECENT
RUNS HAVE TENDED TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY...AND THUS THE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...SOUTH OF THE STATE.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS OVER TYPICALLY WINDIER COASTAL WATERS AROUND THE STATE.
ROUGH SURF WILL BUILD ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES LATER IN THE WEEK...
POSSIBLY REQUIRING A HIGH SURF ADVISORY. A NORTH SWELL ARRIVING
SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES.
OTHERWISE...SURF SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA
BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

RYSHKO







000
FXHW60 PHFO 050619
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE STATE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...
LIMITING MOST OF ITS RAIN TO MAUI AND HAWAII COUNTIES AFTER ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL OVER KAUAI
COUNTY...AND OAHU AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE RAIN AND CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST END OF THE STATE WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT. A SIMILAR RAIN
BAND MAY AFFECT THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP CLOUD LAYERS BLANKETED THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM OAHU TO
THE BIG ISLAND. ALTHOUGH NO FRONT AS SUCH WAS PRESENT...THE AIR MASS
CHANGED RAPIDLY WITH DISTANCE FROM THE RELATIVELY MOIST AND WARM AIR
MASS OVER THE BIG ISLAND...TO THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS OVER
KAUAI. ALOFT...A LOCALLY SHARP EXTENSION OF THE BROADER TROUGH
LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST PROVIDED LIMITED DYNAMIC UPLIFT...BUT
ITS IMPRESSIVE COLD POOL LIKELY CONTRIBUTED MORE TO THE INSTABILITY
DRIVING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE. WINDS WERE A LITTLE TOO
NORTHERLY TO BE CALLED PROPER TRADE WINDS...AND SPEEDS TOO HIGH TO
BE CALLED TYPICAL.

THROUGH TONIGHT...GUIDANCE PREDICTED THE DEEP CLOUD LAYERS TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST...AND SATELLITE IMAGES CERTAINLY SUPPORTED SUCH A TREND.
OAHU SHOULD FOLLOW KAUAI INTO THE DRIER...COOLER SECTOR DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. UNTIL THEN...SHOWERS STILL MAY OCCUR ALONG THE BACK
EDGE OF THE CLOUD BAND. SOLUTIONS AGREED SURPRISINGLY WELL THAT THE
SHORT WAVE ON THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST END OF THE
STATE...SO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND
STILL SEEMED PRUDENT...ALONG WITH A RISK OF HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...BY
THURSDAY MORNING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME LIMITED TO
STRATUS RAIN.

IT WAS LESS CLEAR HOW SOON THE DEEP CLOUD LAYERS WILL LEAVE MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. GOING BACK AS FAR AS LAST WEEK...
SOLUTIONS HAVE TENDED TO PORTRAY A MORE GRADUAL DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER THERE. BASED ON THIS HISTORY...
INCLUDING RECENT RUNS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES MAY BE TOO DRY AND CLEAR TOO SOON. ONE ALTERNATIVE
POSSIBILITY MAY BE THAT THE CLOUD LAYERS WILL FRAY GRADUALLY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING
EQUALLY SLOWLY THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

IN ANY CASE...KAUAI COUNTY AND OAHU WILL SPEND MOST OF THE REST OF
THE WEEK UNDER THE COLD-AIR CUMULI. ALTHOUGH HEAVY SHOWERS WILL BE
UNLIKELY THERE AFTER TONIGHT...OROGRAPHIC FORCING MAY BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN FROM THE COOL AIR MASS OVER WINDWARD SLOPES.
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT...BUT POPS AS SUCH AND CLOUD COVER MAY
NEED A BOOST IN PREFERRED AREAS.

A PAIR OF FRONTS CRASHING INTO THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL
DIMINISH WIND SPEEDS OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS...BUT
WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REMAIN A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF CLIMATOLOGY.

UNSURPRISINGLY...SOLUTIONS STARTED TO DRIFT APART BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS PREDICTED A LOBE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW TO
SWEEP OVER THE ISLANDS AGAIN...PROVIDING UPLIFT AND REDUCING
STABILITY. GUIDANCE DID AGREE THAT WATER VAPOR WOULD ACCUMULATE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE AIR MASSES AGAIN BY THAT TIME. THE
SUPPORT FROM ALOFT MAY ENABLE THE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT NORTH OVER THE
STATE AGAIN...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A REPEAT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WAS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER
TYPICALLY WINDIER COASTAL WATERS. ROUGH SURF WILL BUILD ALONG
EAST-FACING SHORES LATER IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY REQUIRING A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY. A NORTH SWELL ARRIVING SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY-
LEVEL SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES. OTHERWISE...SURF IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR MAUI-KONA-SOUTH
BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA
BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

RYSHKO






000
FXHW60 PHFO 050619
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE STATE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...
LIMITING MOST OF ITS RAIN TO MAUI AND HAWAII COUNTIES AFTER ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL OVER KAUAI
COUNTY...AND OAHU AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE RAIN AND CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST END OF THE STATE WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT. A SIMILAR RAIN
BAND MAY AFFECT THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP CLOUD LAYERS BLANKETED THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM OAHU TO
THE BIG ISLAND. ALTHOUGH NO FRONT AS SUCH WAS PRESENT...THE AIR MASS
CHANGED RAPIDLY WITH DISTANCE FROM THE RELATIVELY MOIST AND WARM AIR
MASS OVER THE BIG ISLAND...TO THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS OVER
KAUAI. ALOFT...A LOCALLY SHARP EXTENSION OF THE BROADER TROUGH
LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST PROVIDED LIMITED DYNAMIC UPLIFT...BUT
ITS IMPRESSIVE COLD POOL LIKELY CONTRIBUTED MORE TO THE INSTABILITY
DRIVING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE. WINDS WERE A LITTLE TOO
NORTHERLY TO BE CALLED PROPER TRADE WINDS...AND SPEEDS TOO HIGH TO
BE CALLED TYPICAL.

THROUGH TONIGHT...GUIDANCE PREDICTED THE DEEP CLOUD LAYERS TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST...AND SATELLITE IMAGES CERTAINLY SUPPORTED SUCH A TREND.
OAHU SHOULD FOLLOW KAUAI INTO THE DRIER...COOLER SECTOR DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. UNTIL THEN...SHOWERS STILL MAY OCCUR ALONG THE BACK
EDGE OF THE CLOUD BAND. SOLUTIONS AGREED SURPRISINGLY WELL THAT THE
SHORT WAVE ON THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST END OF THE
STATE...SO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND
STILL SEEMED PRUDENT...ALONG WITH A RISK OF HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...BY
THURSDAY MORNING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME LIMITED TO
STRATUS RAIN.

IT WAS LESS CLEAR HOW SOON THE DEEP CLOUD LAYERS WILL LEAVE MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. GOING BACK AS FAR AS LAST WEEK...
SOLUTIONS HAVE TENDED TO PORTRAY A MORE GRADUAL DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER THERE. BASED ON THIS HISTORY...
INCLUDING RECENT RUNS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES MAY BE TOO DRY AND CLEAR TOO SOON. ONE ALTERNATIVE
POSSIBILITY MAY BE THAT THE CLOUD LAYERS WILL FRAY GRADUALLY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING
EQUALLY SLOWLY THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

IN ANY CASE...KAUAI COUNTY AND OAHU WILL SPEND MOST OF THE REST OF
THE WEEK UNDER THE COLD-AIR CUMULI. ALTHOUGH HEAVY SHOWERS WILL BE
UNLIKELY THERE AFTER TONIGHT...OROGRAPHIC FORCING MAY BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN FROM THE COOL AIR MASS OVER WINDWARD SLOPES.
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT...BUT POPS AS SUCH AND CLOUD COVER MAY
NEED A BOOST IN PREFERRED AREAS.

A PAIR OF FRONTS CRASHING INTO THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL
DIMINISH WIND SPEEDS OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS...BUT
WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REMAIN A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF CLIMATOLOGY.

UNSURPRISINGLY...SOLUTIONS STARTED TO DRIFT APART BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS PREDICTED A LOBE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW TO
SWEEP OVER THE ISLANDS AGAIN...PROVIDING UPLIFT AND REDUCING
STABILITY. GUIDANCE DID AGREE THAT WATER VAPOR WOULD ACCUMULATE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE AIR MASSES AGAIN BY THAT TIME. THE
SUPPORT FROM ALOFT MAY ENABLE THE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT NORTH OVER THE
STATE AGAIN...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A REPEAT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WAS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER
TYPICALLY WINDIER COASTAL WATERS. ROUGH SURF WILL BUILD ALONG
EAST-FACING SHORES LATER IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY REQUIRING A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY. A NORTH SWELL ARRIVING SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY-
LEVEL SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES. OTHERWISE...SURF IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR MAUI-KONA-SOUTH
BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA
BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

RYSHKO







000
FXHW60 PHFO 050619
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE STATE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...
LIMITING MOST OF ITS RAIN TO MAUI AND HAWAII COUNTIES AFTER ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL OVER KAUAI
COUNTY...AND OAHU AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE RAIN AND CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST END OF THE STATE WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT. A SIMILAR RAIN
BAND MAY AFFECT THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP CLOUD LAYERS BLANKETED THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM OAHU TO
THE BIG ISLAND. ALTHOUGH NO FRONT AS SUCH WAS PRESENT...THE AIR MASS
CHANGED RAPIDLY WITH DISTANCE FROM THE RELATIVELY MOIST AND WARM AIR
MASS OVER THE BIG ISLAND...TO THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS OVER
KAUAI. ALOFT...A LOCALLY SHARP EXTENSION OF THE BROADER TROUGH
LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST PROVIDED LIMITED DYNAMIC UPLIFT...BUT
ITS IMPRESSIVE COLD POOL LIKELY CONTRIBUTED MORE TO THE INSTABILITY
DRIVING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE. WINDS WERE A LITTLE TOO
NORTHERLY TO BE CALLED PROPER TRADE WINDS...AND SPEEDS TOO HIGH TO
BE CALLED TYPICAL.

THROUGH TONIGHT...GUIDANCE PREDICTED THE DEEP CLOUD LAYERS TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST...AND SATELLITE IMAGES CERTAINLY SUPPORTED SUCH A TREND.
OAHU SHOULD FOLLOW KAUAI INTO THE DRIER...COOLER SECTOR DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. UNTIL THEN...SHOWERS STILL MAY OCCUR ALONG THE BACK
EDGE OF THE CLOUD BAND. SOLUTIONS AGREED SURPRISINGLY WELL THAT THE
SHORT WAVE ON THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST END OF THE
STATE...SO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND
STILL SEEMED PRUDENT...ALONG WITH A RISK OF HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...BY
THURSDAY MORNING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME LIMITED TO
STRATUS RAIN.

IT WAS LESS CLEAR HOW SOON THE DEEP CLOUD LAYERS WILL LEAVE MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. GOING BACK AS FAR AS LAST WEEK...
SOLUTIONS HAVE TENDED TO PORTRAY A MORE GRADUAL DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER THERE. BASED ON THIS HISTORY...
INCLUDING RECENT RUNS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES MAY BE TOO DRY AND CLEAR TOO SOON. ONE ALTERNATIVE
POSSIBILITY MAY BE THAT THE CLOUD LAYERS WILL FRAY GRADUALLY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING
EQUALLY SLOWLY THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

IN ANY CASE...KAUAI COUNTY AND OAHU WILL SPEND MOST OF THE REST OF
THE WEEK UNDER THE COLD-AIR CUMULI. ALTHOUGH HEAVY SHOWERS WILL BE
UNLIKELY THERE AFTER TONIGHT...OROGRAPHIC FORCING MAY BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN FROM THE COOL AIR MASS OVER WINDWARD SLOPES.
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT...BUT POPS AS SUCH AND CLOUD COVER MAY
NEED A BOOST IN PREFERRED AREAS.

A PAIR OF FRONTS CRASHING INTO THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL
DIMINISH WIND SPEEDS OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS...BUT
WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REMAIN A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF CLIMATOLOGY.

UNSURPRISINGLY...SOLUTIONS STARTED TO DRIFT APART BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS PREDICTED A LOBE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW TO
SWEEP OVER THE ISLANDS AGAIN...PROVIDING UPLIFT AND REDUCING
STABILITY. GUIDANCE DID AGREE THAT WATER VAPOR WOULD ACCUMULATE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE AIR MASSES AGAIN BY THAT TIME. THE
SUPPORT FROM ALOFT MAY ENABLE THE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT NORTH OVER THE
STATE AGAIN...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A REPEAT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WAS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER
TYPICALLY WINDIER COASTAL WATERS. ROUGH SURF WILL BUILD ALONG
EAST-FACING SHORES LATER IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY REQUIRING A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY. A NORTH SWELL ARRIVING SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY-
LEVEL SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES. OTHERWISE...SURF IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR MAUI-KONA-SOUTH
BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA
BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

RYSHKO






000
FXHW60 PHFO 050619
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE STATE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...
LIMITING MOST OF ITS RAIN TO MAUI AND HAWAII COUNTIES AFTER ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL OVER KAUAI
COUNTY...AND OAHU AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE RAIN AND CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST END OF THE STATE WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT. A SIMILAR RAIN
BAND MAY AFFECT THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP CLOUD LAYERS BLANKETED THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM OAHU TO
THE BIG ISLAND. ALTHOUGH NO FRONT AS SUCH WAS PRESENT...THE AIR MASS
CHANGED RAPIDLY WITH DISTANCE FROM THE RELATIVELY MOIST AND WARM AIR
MASS OVER THE BIG ISLAND...TO THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS OVER
KAUAI. ALOFT...A LOCALLY SHARP EXTENSION OF THE BROADER TROUGH
LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST PROVIDED LIMITED DYNAMIC UPLIFT...BUT
ITS IMPRESSIVE COLD POOL LIKELY CONTRIBUTED MORE TO THE INSTABILITY
DRIVING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE. WINDS WERE A LITTLE TOO
NORTHERLY TO BE CALLED PROPER TRADE WINDS...AND SPEEDS TOO HIGH TO
BE CALLED TYPICAL.

THROUGH TONIGHT...GUIDANCE PREDICTED THE DEEP CLOUD LAYERS TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST...AND SATELLITE IMAGES CERTAINLY SUPPORTED SUCH A TREND.
OAHU SHOULD FOLLOW KAUAI INTO THE DRIER...COOLER SECTOR DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. UNTIL THEN...SHOWERS STILL MAY OCCUR ALONG THE BACK
EDGE OF THE CLOUD BAND. SOLUTIONS AGREED SURPRISINGLY WELL THAT THE
SHORT WAVE ON THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST END OF THE
STATE...SO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND
STILL SEEMED PRUDENT...ALONG WITH A RISK OF HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...BY
THURSDAY MORNING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME LIMITED TO
STRATUS RAIN.

IT WAS LESS CLEAR HOW SOON THE DEEP CLOUD LAYERS WILL LEAVE MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. GOING BACK AS FAR AS LAST WEEK...
SOLUTIONS HAVE TENDED TO PORTRAY A MORE GRADUAL DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER THERE. BASED ON THIS HISTORY...
INCLUDING RECENT RUNS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES MAY BE TOO DRY AND CLEAR TOO SOON. ONE ALTERNATIVE
POSSIBILITY MAY BE THAT THE CLOUD LAYERS WILL FRAY GRADUALLY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING
EQUALLY SLOWLY THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

IN ANY CASE...KAUAI COUNTY AND OAHU WILL SPEND MOST OF THE REST OF
THE WEEK UNDER THE COLD-AIR CUMULI. ALTHOUGH HEAVY SHOWERS WILL BE
UNLIKELY THERE AFTER TONIGHT...OROGRAPHIC FORCING MAY BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN FROM THE COOL AIR MASS OVER WINDWARD SLOPES.
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT...BUT POPS AS SUCH AND CLOUD COVER MAY
NEED A BOOST IN PREFERRED AREAS.

A PAIR OF FRONTS CRASHING INTO THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL
DIMINISH WIND SPEEDS OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS...BUT
WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REMAIN A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF CLIMATOLOGY.

UNSURPRISINGLY...SOLUTIONS STARTED TO DRIFT APART BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS PREDICTED A LOBE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW TO
SWEEP OVER THE ISLANDS AGAIN...PROVIDING UPLIFT AND REDUCING
STABILITY. GUIDANCE DID AGREE THAT WATER VAPOR WOULD ACCUMULATE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE AIR MASSES AGAIN BY THAT TIME. THE
SUPPORT FROM ALOFT MAY ENABLE THE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT NORTH OVER THE
STATE AGAIN...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A REPEAT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WAS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER
TYPICALLY WINDIER COASTAL WATERS. ROUGH SURF WILL BUILD ALONG
EAST-FACING SHORES LATER IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY REQUIRING A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY. A NORTH SWELL ARRIVING SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY-
LEVEL SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES. OTHERWISE...SURF IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR MAUI-KONA-SOUTH
BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA
BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

RYSHKO







000
FXHW60 PHFO 050219
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
419 PM HST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH ALOFT AND TROPICAL MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL
CONTINUE PERIODS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT OVER MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. SNOW AND INCREASING
WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS. A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING BREEZY TRADE WINDS INTO THE
WEEKEND AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS.
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN DECREASES OVER MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND
THURSDAY MORNING BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ARE BRINGING STEADY RAINS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. THE AFTERNOON HILO SOUNDING SHOWS A DECREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM LAST NIGHT... DROPPING FROM 2.15 TO 1.50
INCHES... ALTHOUGH THE HIGH VALUE LAST NIGHT CAN BE TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT AS THE SOUNDING WAS LIKELY RAIN CONTAMINATED. THE
SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WINDS OF 100 MPH TURNING FROM WSW
LAST NIGHT TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH IS
CONTINUING ITS WESTWARD MOTION.

RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM MOLOKAI TO THE BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW FALLING AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND. THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND... AND
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE BIG SUMMITS BOTH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6
AM THURSDAY MORNING. KAUAI AND OAHU ARE MAINLY DRY WITH LAYERED
MID AND UPPER CLOUDS JUST CLEARING KAUAI AS OF 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD OVER OAHU
TONIGHT AND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THURSDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING EASING THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON THE SUMMITS.

AT THE SURFACE... EAST WINDS OVER MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND ARE
PUSHING THE TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO WINDWARD SLOPES WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE BIG ISLAND EXTENDING TO THE NORTH. A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED FAR NW OF THE STATE IS PUSHING BREEZY
NNE WINDS OVER KAUAI AND OAHU BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AS
INDICATED BY THE AFTERNOON LIHUE SOUNDING WHICH RECORDED A DRY
1.02 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. THE DRY AND GUSTY NNE WINDS
WILL SHUNT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND THURSDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST ALLOWING RAINFALL COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY TO DECREASE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

NNE TRADES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE TRADES PUSHING SHOWERS
INTO THE WINDWARD AREAS. DECREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A
SURFACE TROUGH FORMS NORTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND AN UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE STATE. THE WEAKENING WINDS
WILL ALLOW TROPICAL MOISTURE TO AGAIN INFILTRATE THE BIG ISLAND
AND POSSIBLY MAUI AREAS... INCREASING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY SHOWERS. UNDER THIS SCENARIO DRIER WEATHER
WOULD REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS WILL COME AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE PARENT TROUGH MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SUNDAY/MONDAY
SHORTWAVE SWINGING OVER THE AREA WITH THE NEXT ONE COMING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO CONTINUES FOR HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE ACROSS THE AREA AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. THE UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOR MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND...AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC OVER WINDWARD AREAS. LAYERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE
ALSO PRODUCING LIGHT ICING OVER THOSE ISLANDS...FOR WHICH AIRMET
ZULU REMAINS IN EFFECT. FOR OAHU AND KAUAI...EXPECT PERIODS OF ISOL
MVFR CIGS MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AREAS...OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER
THE WINDIER COASTAL WATERS. ROUGH SURF WILL BUILD ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES...AND THIS SURF COULD REQUIRE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY LATER IN
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...SURF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK. A NORTH SWELL ARRIVING
SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ALONG THE NORTH FACING
SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MAUI-KONA-SOUTH BIG
ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA
BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
REYNES...AVIATION









000
FXHW60 PHFO 050219
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
419 PM HST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH ALOFT AND TROPICAL MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL
CONTINUE PERIODS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT OVER MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. SNOW AND INCREASING
WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS. A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING BREEZY TRADE WINDS INTO THE
WEEKEND AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS.
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN DECREASES OVER MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND
THURSDAY MORNING BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ARE BRINGING STEADY RAINS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. THE AFTERNOON HILO SOUNDING SHOWS A DECREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM LAST NIGHT... DROPPING FROM 2.15 TO 1.50
INCHES... ALTHOUGH THE HIGH VALUE LAST NIGHT CAN BE TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT AS THE SOUNDING WAS LIKELY RAIN CONTAMINATED. THE
SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WINDS OF 100 MPH TURNING FROM WSW
LAST NIGHT TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH IS
CONTINUING ITS WESTWARD MOTION.

RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM MOLOKAI TO THE BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW FALLING AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND. THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND... AND
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE BIG SUMMITS BOTH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6
AM THURSDAY MORNING. KAUAI AND OAHU ARE MAINLY DRY WITH LAYERED
MID AND UPPER CLOUDS JUST CLEARING KAUAI AS OF 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD OVER OAHU
TONIGHT AND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THURSDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING EASING THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON THE SUMMITS.

AT THE SURFACE... EAST WINDS OVER MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND ARE
PUSHING THE TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO WINDWARD SLOPES WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE BIG ISLAND EXTENDING TO THE NORTH. A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED FAR NW OF THE STATE IS PUSHING BREEZY
NNE WINDS OVER KAUAI AND OAHU BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AS
INDICATED BY THE AFTERNOON LIHUE SOUNDING WHICH RECORDED A DRY
1.02 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. THE DRY AND GUSTY NNE WINDS
WILL SHUNT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND THURSDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST ALLOWING RAINFALL COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY TO DECREASE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

NNE TRADES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE TRADES PUSHING SHOWERS
INTO THE WINDWARD AREAS. DECREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A
SURFACE TROUGH FORMS NORTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND AN UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE STATE. THE WEAKENING WINDS
WILL ALLOW TROPICAL MOISTURE TO AGAIN INFILTRATE THE BIG ISLAND
AND POSSIBLY MAUI AREAS... INCREASING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY SHOWERS. UNDER THIS SCENARIO DRIER WEATHER
WOULD REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS WILL COME AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE PARENT TROUGH MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SUNDAY/MONDAY
SHORTWAVE SWINGING OVER THE AREA WITH THE NEXT ONE COMING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO CONTINUES FOR HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE ACROSS THE AREA AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. THE UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOR MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND...AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC OVER WINDWARD AREAS. LAYERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE
ALSO PRODUCING LIGHT ICING OVER THOSE ISLANDS...FOR WHICH AIRMET
ZULU REMAINS IN EFFECT. FOR OAHU AND KAUAI...EXPECT PERIODS OF ISOL
MVFR CIGS MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AREAS...OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER
THE WINDIER COASTAL WATERS. ROUGH SURF WILL BUILD ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES...AND THIS SURF COULD REQUIRE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY LATER IN
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...SURF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK. A NORTH SWELL ARRIVING
SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ALONG THE NORTH FACING
SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MAUI-KONA-SOUTH BIG
ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA
BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
REYNES...AVIATION








000
FXHW60 PHFO 042012
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1012 AM HST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH ALOFT AND TROPICAL MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL
CONTINUE PERIODS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT OVER MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND AND BRING OVERCAST
CLOUDS TO REST THE STATE. SNOW AND INCREASING WINDS WILL ALSO
AFFECT THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING BREEZY TRADE WINDS INTO THE WEEKEND AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS. THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN DECREASES OVER MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND THURSDAY BUT
WILL INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ARE BRINGING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING TO THE BIG ISLAND
AND MAUI. THE OVERNIGHT HILO SOUNDING SHOWS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE THROUGH THE SOUNDING WITH A CALCULATED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE OF 2.15 INCHES... ALTHOUGH THIS HIGH VALUE CAN BE TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT AS THE SOUNDING WAS LIKELY RAIN CONTAMINATED. THE
SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WINDS OF 100 MPH OUT OF THE WSW
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD.

RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY
SHOWERS FROM MOLOKAI TO THE BIG ISLAND THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
FALLING AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND. KAUAI AND
OAHU ARE MAINLY DRY WITH LAYERED MID AND UPPER CLOUDS OVERHEAD
INDICATING THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MAUI AND THE
BIG ISLAND AND A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE BIG SUMMITS BOTH IN
EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH
WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING EASING THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
AND POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON THE SUMMITS.

AT THE SURFACE... EAST WINDS OVER MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND ARE
PUSHING THE TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO WINDWARD SLOPES WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE BIG ISLAND EXTENDING TO THE NORTH. A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED FAR NW OF THE STATE IS PUSHING BREEZY
NNE WINDS OVER KAUAI AND OAHU TODAY BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AS
INDICATED BY THE OVERNIGHT LIHUE SOUNDING WHICH RECORDED A DRY
0.93 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OVERNIGHT. THE DRY NNE WINDS
WILL SHUNT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND THURSDAY
AND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST ALLOWING RAINFALL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO DECREASE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE.

NNE TRADES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE TRADES PUSHING SHOWERS
INTO THE WINDWARD AREAS. DECREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A
SURFACE TROUGH FORMS NORTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND AN UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE STATE. THE WEAKENING WINDS
WILL ALLOW TROPICAL MOISTURE TO AGAIN INFILTRATE THE BIG ISLAND
AND MAUI AREAS INCREASING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF HEAVY SHOWERS. UNDER THIS SCENARIO DRIER WEATHER WOULD REMAIN
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS WILL COME AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE PARENT TROUGH MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SUNDAY/MONDAY
SHORTWAVE SWINGING OVER THE AREA WITH THE NEXT ONE COMING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER THE
AREA DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
AIRMET TANGO IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL MECHANICAL TURBULENCE
SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF KAUAI...OAHU AND LANAI. BOTH UPPER LEVEL AND
LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC OVER WINDWARD
AREAS OF OF THE BIG ISLAND...MAUI...MOLOKAI AND LANAI. LAYERED HIGH
CLOUDS FROM MAUI COUNTY THROUGH THE BIG ISLAND WILL PRODUCE LIGHT
ICING FOR WHICH AIRMET ZULU IS IN EFFECT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR OAHU AND KAUAI BUT THERE MAY BE ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS
OVER WINDWARD AREAS.


&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. ROUGH
SURF WILL BUILD ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...AND THIS SURF COULD
REQUIRE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY LATER IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...SURF IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK. A
NORTH SWELL ARRIVING SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ALONG
THE NORTH FACING SHORES.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MAUI-KONA-SOUTH BIG
ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA
BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
FOSTER...AVIATION







000
FXHW60 PHFO 042012
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1012 AM HST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH ALOFT AND TROPICAL MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL
CONTINUE PERIODS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT OVER MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND AND BRING OVERCAST
CLOUDS TO REST THE STATE. SNOW AND INCREASING WINDS WILL ALSO
AFFECT THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING BREEZY TRADE WINDS INTO THE WEEKEND AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS. THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN DECREASES OVER MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND THURSDAY BUT
WILL INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ARE BRINGING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING TO THE BIG ISLAND
AND MAUI. THE OVERNIGHT HILO SOUNDING SHOWS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE THROUGH THE SOUNDING WITH A CALCULATED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE OF 2.15 INCHES... ALTHOUGH THIS HIGH VALUE CAN BE TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT AS THE SOUNDING WAS LIKELY RAIN CONTAMINATED. THE
SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WINDS OF 100 MPH OUT OF THE WSW
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD.

RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY
SHOWERS FROM MOLOKAI TO THE BIG ISLAND THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
FALLING AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND. KAUAI AND
OAHU ARE MAINLY DRY WITH LAYERED MID AND UPPER CLOUDS OVERHEAD
INDICATING THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MAUI AND THE
BIG ISLAND AND A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE BIG SUMMITS BOTH IN
EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH
WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING EASING THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
AND POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON THE SUMMITS.

AT THE SURFACE... EAST WINDS OVER MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND ARE
PUSHING THE TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO WINDWARD SLOPES WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE BIG ISLAND EXTENDING TO THE NORTH. A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED FAR NW OF THE STATE IS PUSHING BREEZY
NNE WINDS OVER KAUAI AND OAHU TODAY BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AS
INDICATED BY THE OVERNIGHT LIHUE SOUNDING WHICH RECORDED A DRY
0.93 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OVERNIGHT. THE DRY NNE WINDS
WILL SHUNT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND THURSDAY
AND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST ALLOWING RAINFALL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO DECREASE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE.

NNE TRADES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE TRADES PUSHING SHOWERS
INTO THE WINDWARD AREAS. DECREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A
SURFACE TROUGH FORMS NORTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND AN UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE STATE. THE WEAKENING WINDS
WILL ALLOW TROPICAL MOISTURE TO AGAIN INFILTRATE THE BIG ISLAND
AND MAUI AREAS INCREASING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF HEAVY SHOWERS. UNDER THIS SCENARIO DRIER WEATHER WOULD REMAIN
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS WILL COME AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE PARENT TROUGH MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SUNDAY/MONDAY
SHORTWAVE SWINGING OVER THE AREA WITH THE NEXT ONE COMING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER THE
AREA DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
AIRMET TANGO IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL MECHANICAL TURBULENCE
SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF KAUAI...OAHU AND LANAI. BOTH UPPER LEVEL AND
LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC OVER WINDWARD
AREAS OF OF THE BIG ISLAND...MAUI...MOLOKAI AND LANAI. LAYERED HIGH
CLOUDS FROM MAUI COUNTY THROUGH THE BIG ISLAND WILL PRODUCE LIGHT
ICING FOR WHICH AIRMET ZULU IS IN EFFECT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR OAHU AND KAUAI BUT THERE MAY BE ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS
OVER WINDWARD AREAS.


&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. ROUGH
SURF WILL BUILD ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...AND THIS SURF COULD
REQUIRE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY LATER IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...SURF IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK. A
NORTH SWELL ARRIVING SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ALONG
THE NORTH FACING SHORES.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MAUI-KONA-SOUTH BIG
ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA
BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
FOSTER...AVIATION








000
FXHW60 PHFO 041330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH ALOFT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT ON MAUI AND
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
THE HIGH ELEVATIONS ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING
OVERCAST CLOUDS TO ALL THE ISLANDS. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING...BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS FROM MOLOKAI TO KAUAI. THE WEATHER WILL
TURN DRIER ON THURSDAY...BUT THAT MAY BE TEMPORARY. THE TROUGH ALOFT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SO MORE PERIODS OF STORMY WEATHER
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH ABOUT 1500 MILES NORTHWEST IS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. A PERSISTENT
TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUES TO MAKE THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE...BUT SO FAR
IT HAS NOT BEEN UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE ISLANDS. AS OF 300 AM THE CLOSEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABOUT 100
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
USUALLY GREATEST OVER WATER AT NIGHT AND OVER LAND DURING THE DAY SO
THE THREAT WILL LIKELY SHIFT AFTER SUNRISE. TRADE-WIND WEATHER WILL
PERSIST OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
WINDWARD AREAS. THICK LAYERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE
SKIES OVER ALL THE ISLANDS.

A BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH ALOFT LIES NORTH OF THE AREA. A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AS THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER TODAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AND MORE MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE TONIGHT ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE SNOW OVER THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL SUBSIDE
TOMORROW AS THE SHORT-WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MORE PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE
AS LONG AS THIS TROUGH REMAINS. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS WILL COME AS
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
SHORT WAVE AFFECTING THE ISLANDS TODAY BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF SUBSEQUENT SHORT WAVES.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER THE AREA
DUE TO THE TROUGH ALOFT. THE TURBULENCE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY. AIRMET TANGO ALSO HAS LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE IN THE
LEE OF THE ISLANDS DUE TO THE STRONG TRADE WINDS. AIRMET SIERRA IS
IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC OVER WINDWARD AREAS FROM THE BIG ISLAND TO
MOLOKAI. THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT ICING WILL BE MENTIONED IN AIRMET
ZULU. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM LANAI TO KAUAI BUT THERE MAY
BE ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS OVER WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. ROUGH
SURF WILL BUILD ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...AND THIS SURF COULD
REQUIRE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY LATER IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...SURF IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK. A
NORTH SWELL ARRIVING SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ALONG
THE NORTH FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE KAUAI...KAIWI...MOLOKAI AND ALENUIHAHA
CHANNELS...WATERS WEST OF KAUAI...MAALAEA BAY AND WATERS SOUTH OF
THE BIG ISLAND FOR STRONG NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND
OF HAWAII.

WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA
KEA AND MAUNA LOA.

&&

$$
DONALDSON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 041330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH ALOFT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT ON MAUI AND
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
THE HIGH ELEVATIONS ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING
OVERCAST CLOUDS TO ALL THE ISLANDS. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING...BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS FROM MOLOKAI TO KAUAI. THE WEATHER WILL
TURN DRIER ON THURSDAY...BUT THAT MAY BE TEMPORARY. THE TROUGH ALOFT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SO MORE PERIODS OF STORMY WEATHER
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH ABOUT 1500 MILES NORTHWEST IS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. A PERSISTENT
TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUES TO MAKE THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE...BUT SO FAR
IT HAS NOT BEEN UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE ISLANDS. AS OF 300 AM THE CLOSEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABOUT 100
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
USUALLY GREATEST OVER WATER AT NIGHT AND OVER LAND DURING THE DAY SO
THE THREAT WILL LIKELY SHIFT AFTER SUNRISE. TRADE-WIND WEATHER WILL
PERSIST OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
WINDWARD AREAS. THICK LAYERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE
SKIES OVER ALL THE ISLANDS.

A BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH ALOFT LIES NORTH OF THE AREA. A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AS THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER TODAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AND MORE MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE TONIGHT ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE SNOW OVER THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL SUBSIDE
TOMORROW AS THE SHORT-WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MORE PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE
AS LONG AS THIS TROUGH REMAINS. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS WILL COME AS
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
SHORT WAVE AFFECTING THE ISLANDS TODAY BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF SUBSEQUENT SHORT WAVES.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER THE AREA
DUE TO THE TROUGH ALOFT. THE TURBULENCE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY. AIRMET TANGO ALSO HAS LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE IN THE
LEE OF THE ISLANDS DUE TO THE STRONG TRADE WINDS. AIRMET SIERRA IS
IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC OVER WINDWARD AREAS FROM THE BIG ISLAND TO
MOLOKAI. THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT ICING WILL BE MENTIONED IN AIRMET
ZULU. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM LANAI TO KAUAI BUT THERE MAY
BE ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS OVER WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. ROUGH
SURF WILL BUILD ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...AND THIS SURF COULD
REQUIRE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY LATER IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...SURF IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK. A
NORTH SWELL ARRIVING SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ALONG
THE NORTH FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE KAUAI...KAIWI...MOLOKAI AND ALENUIHAHA
CHANNELS...WATERS WEST OF KAUAI...MAALAEA BAY AND WATERS SOUTH OF
THE BIG ISLAND FOR STRONG NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND
OF HAWAII.

WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA
KEA AND MAUNA LOA.

&&

$$
DONALDSON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 041330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH ALOFT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT ON MAUI AND
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
THE HIGH ELEVATIONS ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING
OVERCAST CLOUDS TO ALL THE ISLANDS. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING...BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS FROM MOLOKAI TO KAUAI. THE WEATHER WILL
TURN DRIER ON THURSDAY...BUT THAT MAY BE TEMPORARY. THE TROUGH ALOFT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SO MORE PERIODS OF STORMY WEATHER
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH ABOUT 1500 MILES NORTHWEST IS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. A PERSISTENT
TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUES TO MAKE THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE...BUT SO FAR
IT HAS NOT BEEN UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE ISLANDS. AS OF 300 AM THE CLOSEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABOUT 100
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
USUALLY GREATEST OVER WATER AT NIGHT AND OVER LAND DURING THE DAY SO
THE THREAT WILL LIKELY SHIFT AFTER SUNRISE. TRADE-WIND WEATHER WILL
PERSIST OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
WINDWARD AREAS. THICK LAYERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE
SKIES OVER ALL THE ISLANDS.

A BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH ALOFT LIES NORTH OF THE AREA. A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AS THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER TODAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AND MORE MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE TONIGHT ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE SNOW OVER THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL SUBSIDE
TOMORROW AS THE SHORT-WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MORE PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE
AS LONG AS THIS TROUGH REMAINS. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS WILL COME AS
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
SHORT WAVE AFFECTING THE ISLANDS TODAY BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF SUBSEQUENT SHORT WAVES.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER THE AREA
DUE TO THE TROUGH ALOFT. THE TURBULENCE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY. AIRMET TANGO ALSO HAS LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE IN THE
LEE OF THE ISLANDS DUE TO THE STRONG TRADE WINDS. AIRMET SIERRA IS
IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC OVER WINDWARD AREAS FROM THE BIG ISLAND TO
MOLOKAI. THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT ICING WILL BE MENTIONED IN AIRMET
ZULU. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM LANAI TO KAUAI BUT THERE MAY
BE ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS OVER WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. ROUGH
SURF WILL BUILD ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...AND THIS SURF COULD
REQUIRE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY LATER IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...SURF IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK. A
NORTH SWELL ARRIVING SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ALONG
THE NORTH FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE KAUAI...KAIWI...MOLOKAI AND ALENUIHAHA
CHANNELS...WATERS WEST OF KAUAI...MAALAEA BAY AND WATERS SOUTH OF
THE BIG ISLAND FOR STRONG NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND
OF HAWAII.

WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA
KEA AND MAUNA LOA.

&&

$$
DONALDSON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 041330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH ALOFT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT ON MAUI AND
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
THE HIGH ELEVATIONS ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING
OVERCAST CLOUDS TO ALL THE ISLANDS. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING...BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS FROM MOLOKAI TO KAUAI. THE WEATHER WILL
TURN DRIER ON THURSDAY...BUT THAT MAY BE TEMPORARY. THE TROUGH ALOFT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SO MORE PERIODS OF STORMY WEATHER
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH ABOUT 1500 MILES NORTHWEST IS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. A PERSISTENT
TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUES TO MAKE THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE...BUT SO FAR
IT HAS NOT BEEN UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE ISLANDS. AS OF 300 AM THE CLOSEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABOUT 100
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
USUALLY GREATEST OVER WATER AT NIGHT AND OVER LAND DURING THE DAY SO
THE THREAT WILL LIKELY SHIFT AFTER SUNRISE. TRADE-WIND WEATHER WILL
PERSIST OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
WINDWARD AREAS. THICK LAYERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE
SKIES OVER ALL THE ISLANDS.

A BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH ALOFT LIES NORTH OF THE AREA. A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AS THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER TODAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AND MORE MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE TONIGHT ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE SNOW OVER THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL SUBSIDE
TOMORROW AS THE SHORT-WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MORE PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE
AS LONG AS THIS TROUGH REMAINS. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS WILL COME AS
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
SHORT WAVE AFFECTING THE ISLANDS TODAY BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF SUBSEQUENT SHORT WAVES.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER THE AREA
DUE TO THE TROUGH ALOFT. THE TURBULENCE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY. AIRMET TANGO ALSO HAS LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE IN THE
LEE OF THE ISLANDS DUE TO THE STRONG TRADE WINDS. AIRMET SIERRA IS
IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC OVER WINDWARD AREAS FROM THE BIG ISLAND TO
MOLOKAI. THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT ICING WILL BE MENTIONED IN AIRMET
ZULU. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM LANAI TO KAUAI BUT THERE MAY
BE ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS OVER WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. ROUGH
SURF WILL BUILD ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...AND THIS SURF COULD
REQUIRE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY LATER IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...SURF IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK. A
NORTH SWELL ARRIVING SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ALONG
THE NORTH FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE KAUAI...KAIWI...MOLOKAI AND ALENUIHAHA
CHANNELS...WATERS WEST OF KAUAI...MAALAEA BAY AND WATERS SOUTH OF
THE BIG ISLAND FOR STRONG NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND
OF HAWAII.

WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA
KEA AND MAUNA LOA.

&&

$$
DONALDSON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 040849 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1050 PM HST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
A TROUGH ALOFT HEADED TOWARD THE ISLANDS IS NOT YET HAVING A BIG
IMPACT ON THE WEATHER OVER THE ISLANDS. WE HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECASTS TO DELAY THE TIMING OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE
SUMMITS TILL TOMORROW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH ALOFT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT THE HIGH ELEVATIONS ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO
BRING OVERCAST CLOUDS TO ALL THE ISLANDS. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO
THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING OVER THE AREA...BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS FROM MOLOKAI TO KAUAI. THE
WEATHER WILL TURN DRIER ON THURSDAY...BUT THAT MAY BE TEMPORARY. THE
TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SO MORE PERIODS OF
STORMY WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. A PERSISTENT TROUGH ALOFT
MADE THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER
THE BIG ISLAND SLOPES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS OF 800 PM...THE
THUNDER HAD ENDED ON THE BIG ISLAND...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
UNSTABLE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI TONIGHT AND HEAVY SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.
TRADE-WIND WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AREAS. THICK LAYERED
CLOUDS WILL BLANKET THE SKIES OVER ALL THE ISLANDS.

A BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH ALOFT LIES NORTH OF THE AREA. A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AS THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER ON WEDNESDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. MORE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS ARE LIKELY
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE
TROUGH ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE SNOW OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS
ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MORE PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE
AS LONG AS THIS TROUGH REMAINS. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS WILL COME AS
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
SHORT WAVE AFFECTING THE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THEY DIFFER ON
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SUBSEQUENT SHORT WAVES.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER THE AREA
DUE TO THE TROUGH ALOFT. THE TURBULENCE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LONGER. AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT
FOR MTN OBSC OVER WINDWARD AREAS OF OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI AND
THOSE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LAYERED
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA MAY GET THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ICING...
SO AIRMET ZULU FOR ICING MAY BE NEEDED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM LANAI TO KAUAI BUT THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS OVER WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAY INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS HAVE
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STRONG TRADE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS STARTING AT 600 AM WEDNESDAY. ROUGH SURF WILL
BUILD ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...AND THIS SURF COULD REQUIRE A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY LATER IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...SURF IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK. A NORTH
SWELL ARRIVING SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ALONG THE
NORTH FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING 600 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE KAUAI...
KAIWI...MOLOKAI AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...WATERS WEST OF KAUAI...
MAALAEA BAY AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND FOR STRONG NORTHEAST
TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAUI AND THE
BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 600 AM THURSDAY FOR THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA
KEA AND MAUNA LOA.

&&

$$
DONALDSON








000
FXHW60 PHFO 040849 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1050 PM HST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
A TROUGH ALOFT HEADED TOWARD THE ISLANDS IS NOT YET HAVING A BIG
IMPACT ON THE WEATHER OVER THE ISLANDS. WE HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECASTS TO DELAY THE TIMING OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE
SUMMITS TILL TOMORROW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH ALOFT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT THE HIGH ELEVATIONS ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO
BRING OVERCAST CLOUDS TO ALL THE ISLANDS. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO
THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING OVER THE AREA...BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS FROM MOLOKAI TO KAUAI. THE
WEATHER WILL TURN DRIER ON THURSDAY...BUT THAT MAY BE TEMPORARY. THE
TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SO MORE PERIODS OF
STORMY WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. A PERSISTENT TROUGH ALOFT
MADE THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER
THE BIG ISLAND SLOPES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS OF 800 PM...THE
THUNDER HAD ENDED ON THE BIG ISLAND...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
UNSTABLE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI TONIGHT AND HEAVY SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.
TRADE-WIND WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AREAS. THICK LAYERED
CLOUDS WILL BLANKET THE SKIES OVER ALL THE ISLANDS.

A BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH ALOFT LIES NORTH OF THE AREA. A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AS THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER ON WEDNESDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. MORE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS ARE LIKELY
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE
TROUGH ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE SNOW OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS
ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MORE PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE
AS LONG AS THIS TROUGH REMAINS. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS WILL COME AS
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
SHORT WAVE AFFECTING THE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THEY DIFFER ON
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SUBSEQUENT SHORT WAVES.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER THE AREA
DUE TO THE TROUGH ALOFT. THE TURBULENCE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LONGER. AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT
FOR MTN OBSC OVER WINDWARD AREAS OF OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI AND
THOSE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LAYERED
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA MAY GET THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ICING...
SO AIRMET ZULU FOR ICING MAY BE NEEDED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM LANAI TO KAUAI BUT THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS OVER WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAY INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS HAVE
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STRONG TRADE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS STARTING AT 600 AM WEDNESDAY. ROUGH SURF WILL
BUILD ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...AND THIS SURF COULD REQUIRE A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY LATER IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...SURF IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK. A NORTH
SWELL ARRIVING SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ALONG THE
NORTH FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING 600 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE KAUAI...
KAIWI...MOLOKAI AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...WATERS WEST OF KAUAI...
MAALAEA BAY AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND FOR STRONG NORTHEAST
TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAUI AND THE
BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 600 AM THURSDAY FOR THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA
KEA AND MAUNA LOA.

&&

$$
DONALDSON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 040849 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1050 PM HST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
A TROUGH ALOFT HEADED TOWARD THE ISLANDS IS NOT YET HAVING A BIG
IMPACT ON THE WEATHER OVER THE ISLANDS. WE HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECASTS TO DELAY THE TIMING OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE
SUMMITS TILL TOMORROW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH ALOFT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT THE HIGH ELEVATIONS ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO
BRING OVERCAST CLOUDS TO ALL THE ISLANDS. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO
THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING OVER THE AREA...BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS FROM MOLOKAI TO KAUAI. THE
WEATHER WILL TURN DRIER ON THURSDAY...BUT THAT MAY BE TEMPORARY. THE
TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SO MORE PERIODS OF
STORMY WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. A PERSISTENT TROUGH ALOFT
MADE THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER
THE BIG ISLAND SLOPES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS OF 800 PM...THE
THUNDER HAD ENDED ON THE BIG ISLAND...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
UNSTABLE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI TONIGHT AND HEAVY SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.
TRADE-WIND WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AREAS. THICK LAYERED
CLOUDS WILL BLANKET THE SKIES OVER ALL THE ISLANDS.

A BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH ALOFT LIES NORTH OF THE AREA. A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AS THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER ON WEDNESDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. MORE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS ARE LIKELY
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE
TROUGH ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE SNOW OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS
ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MORE PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE
AS LONG AS THIS TROUGH REMAINS. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS WILL COME AS
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
SHORT WAVE AFFECTING THE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THEY DIFFER ON
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SUBSEQUENT SHORT WAVES.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER THE AREA
DUE TO THE TROUGH ALOFT. THE TURBULENCE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LONGER. AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT
FOR MTN OBSC OVER WINDWARD AREAS OF OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI AND
THOSE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LAYERED
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA MAY GET THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ICING...
SO AIRMET ZULU FOR ICING MAY BE NEEDED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM LANAI TO KAUAI BUT THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS OVER WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAY INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS HAVE
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STRONG TRADE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS STARTING AT 600 AM WEDNESDAY. ROUGH SURF WILL
BUILD ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...AND THIS SURF COULD REQUIRE A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY LATER IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...SURF IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK. A NORTH
SWELL ARRIVING SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ALONG THE
NORTH FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING 600 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE KAUAI...
KAIWI...MOLOKAI AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...WATERS WEST OF KAUAI...
MAALAEA BAY AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND FOR STRONG NORTHEAST
TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAUI AND THE
BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 600 AM THURSDAY FOR THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA
KEA AND MAUNA LOA.

&&

$$
DONALDSON








000
FXHW60 PHFO 040849 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1050 PM HST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
A TROUGH ALOFT HEADED TOWARD THE ISLANDS IS NOT YET HAVING A BIG
IMPACT ON THE WEATHER OVER THE ISLANDS. WE HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECASTS TO DELAY THE TIMING OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE
SUMMITS TILL TOMORROW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH ALOFT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT THE HIGH ELEVATIONS ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO
BRING OVERCAST CLOUDS TO ALL THE ISLANDS. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO
THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING OVER THE AREA...BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS FROM MOLOKAI TO KAUAI. THE
WEATHER WILL TURN DRIER ON THURSDAY...BUT THAT MAY BE TEMPORARY. THE
TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SO MORE PERIODS OF
STORMY WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. A PERSISTENT TROUGH ALOFT
MADE THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER
THE BIG ISLAND SLOPES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS OF 800 PM...THE
THUNDER HAD ENDED ON THE BIG ISLAND...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
UNSTABLE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI TONIGHT AND HEAVY SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.
TRADE-WIND WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AREAS. THICK LAYERED
CLOUDS WILL BLANKET THE SKIES OVER ALL THE ISLANDS.

A BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH ALOFT LIES NORTH OF THE AREA. A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AS THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER ON WEDNESDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. MORE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS ARE LIKELY
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE
TROUGH ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE SNOW OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS
ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MORE PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE
AS LONG AS THIS TROUGH REMAINS. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS WILL COME AS
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
SHORT WAVE AFFECTING THE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THEY DIFFER ON
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SUBSEQUENT SHORT WAVES.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER THE AREA
DUE TO THE TROUGH ALOFT. THE TURBULENCE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LONGER. AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT
FOR MTN OBSC OVER WINDWARD AREAS OF OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI AND
THOSE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LAYERED
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA MAY GET THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ICING...
SO AIRMET ZULU FOR ICING MAY BE NEEDED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM LANAI TO KAUAI BUT THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS OVER WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAY INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS HAVE
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STRONG TRADE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS STARTING AT 600 AM WEDNESDAY. ROUGH SURF WILL
BUILD ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...AND THIS SURF COULD REQUIRE A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY LATER IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...SURF IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK. A NORTH
SWELL ARRIVING SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ALONG THE
NORTH FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING 600 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE KAUAI...
KAIWI...MOLOKAI AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...WATERS WEST OF KAUAI...
MAALAEA BAY AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND FOR STRONG NORTHEAST
TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAUI AND THE
BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 600 AM THURSDAY FOR THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA
KEA AND MAUNA LOA.

&&

$$
DONALDSON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 040632
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH ALOFT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT THE HIGH ELEVATIONS ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO
BRING OVERCAST CLOUDS TO ALL THE ISLANDS. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO
THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING OVER THE AREA...BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS FROM MOLOKAI TO KAUAI. THE
WEATHER WILL TURN DRIER ON THURSDAY...BUT THAT MAY BE TEMPORARY. THE
TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SO MORE PERIODS OF
STORMY WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. A PERSISTENT TROUGH ALOFT
MADE THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER
THE BIG ISLAND SLOPES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS OF 800 PM...THE
THUNDER HAD ENDED ON THE BIG ISLAND...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
UNSTABLE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI TONIGHT AND HEAVY SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.
TRADE-WIND WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AREAS. THICK LAYERED
CLOUDS WILL BLANKET THE SKIES OVER ALL THE ISLANDS.

A BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH ALOFT LIES NORTH OF THE AREA. A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AS THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER ON WEDNESDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. MORE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS ARE LIKELY
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE
TROUGH ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE SNOW OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS
ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MORE PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE
AS LONG AS THIS TROUGH REMAINS. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS WILL COME AS
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
SHORT WAVE AFFECTING THE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THEY DIFFER ON
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SUBSEQUENT SHORT WAVES.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER THE AREA
DUE TO THE TROUGH ALOFT. THE TURBULENCE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LONGER. AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT
FOR MTN OBSC OVER WINDWARD AREAS OF OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI AND
THOSE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LAYERED
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA MAY GET THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ICING...
SO AIRMET ZULU FOR ICING MAY BE NEEDED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM LANAI TO KAUAI BUT THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS OVER WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAY INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS HAVE
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STRONG TRADE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS STARTING AT 600 AM WEDNESDAY. ROUGH SURF WILL
BUILD ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...AND THIS SURF COULD REQUIRE A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY LATER IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...SURF IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK. A NORTH
SWELL ARRIVING SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ALONG THE
NORTH FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING 600 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE KAUAI...
KAIWI...MOLOKAI AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...WATERS WEST OF KAUAI...
MAALAEA BAY AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND FOR STRONG NORTHEAST
TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAUI AND THE
BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 600 AM THURSDAY FOR THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA
KEA AND MAUNA LOA.

&&

$$
DONALDSON









000
FXHW60 PHFO 040632
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH ALOFT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT THE HIGH ELEVATIONS ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO
BRING OVERCAST CLOUDS TO ALL THE ISLANDS. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO
THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING OVER THE AREA...BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS FROM MOLOKAI TO KAUAI. THE
WEATHER WILL TURN DRIER ON THURSDAY...BUT THAT MAY BE TEMPORARY. THE
TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SO MORE PERIODS OF
STORMY WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. A PERSISTENT TROUGH ALOFT
MADE THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER
THE BIG ISLAND SLOPES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS OF 800 PM...THE
THUNDER HAD ENDED ON THE BIG ISLAND...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
UNSTABLE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI TONIGHT AND HEAVY SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.
TRADE-WIND WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AREAS. THICK LAYERED
CLOUDS WILL BLANKET THE SKIES OVER ALL THE ISLANDS.

A BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH ALOFT LIES NORTH OF THE AREA. A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AS THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER ON WEDNESDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. MORE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS ARE LIKELY
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE
TROUGH ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE SNOW OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS
ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MORE PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE
AS LONG AS THIS TROUGH REMAINS. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS WILL COME AS
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
SHORT WAVE AFFECTING THE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THEY DIFFER ON
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SUBSEQUENT SHORT WAVES.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER THE AREA
DUE TO THE TROUGH ALOFT. THE TURBULENCE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LONGER. AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT
FOR MTN OBSC OVER WINDWARD AREAS OF OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI AND
THOSE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LAYERED
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA MAY GET THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ICING...
SO AIRMET ZULU FOR ICING MAY BE NEEDED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM LANAI TO KAUAI BUT THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS OVER WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAY INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS HAVE
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STRONG TRADE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS STARTING AT 600 AM WEDNESDAY. ROUGH SURF WILL
BUILD ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...AND THIS SURF COULD REQUIRE A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY LATER IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...SURF IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK. A NORTH
SWELL ARRIVING SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ALONG THE
NORTH FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING 600 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE KAUAI...
KAIWI...MOLOKAI AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...WATERS WEST OF KAUAI...
MAALAEA BAY AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND FOR STRONG NORTHEAST
TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAUI AND THE
BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 600 AM THURSDAY FOR THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA
KEA AND MAUNA LOA.

&&

$$
DONALDSON









000
FXHW60 PHFO 040632
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH ALOFT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT THE HIGH ELEVATIONS ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO
BRING OVERCAST CLOUDS TO ALL THE ISLANDS. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO
THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING OVER THE AREA...BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS FROM MOLOKAI TO KAUAI. THE
WEATHER WILL TURN DRIER ON THURSDAY...BUT THAT MAY BE TEMPORARY. THE
TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SO MORE PERIODS OF
STORMY WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. A PERSISTENT TROUGH ALOFT
MADE THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER
THE BIG ISLAND SLOPES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS OF 800 PM...THE
THUNDER HAD ENDED ON THE BIG ISLAND...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
UNSTABLE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI TONIGHT AND HEAVY SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.
TRADE-WIND WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AREAS. THICK LAYERED
CLOUDS WILL BLANKET THE SKIES OVER ALL THE ISLANDS.

A BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH ALOFT LIES NORTH OF THE AREA. A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AS THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER ON WEDNESDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. MORE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS ARE LIKELY
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE
TROUGH ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE SNOW OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS
ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MORE PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE
AS LONG AS THIS TROUGH REMAINS. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS WILL COME AS
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
SHORT WAVE AFFECTING THE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THEY DIFFER ON
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SUBSEQUENT SHORT WAVES.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER THE AREA
DUE TO THE TROUGH ALOFT. THE TURBULENCE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LONGER. AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT
FOR MTN OBSC OVER WINDWARD AREAS OF OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI AND
THOSE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LAYERED
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA MAY GET THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ICING...
SO AIRMET ZULU FOR ICING MAY BE NEEDED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM LANAI TO KAUAI BUT THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS OVER WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAY INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS HAVE
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STRONG TRADE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS STARTING AT 600 AM WEDNESDAY. ROUGH SURF WILL
BUILD ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...AND THIS SURF COULD REQUIRE A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY LATER IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...SURF IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK. A NORTH
SWELL ARRIVING SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ALONG THE
NORTH FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING 600 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE KAUAI...
KAIWI...MOLOKAI AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...WATERS WEST OF KAUAI...
MAALAEA BAY AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND FOR STRONG NORTHEAST
TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAUI AND THE
BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 600 AM THURSDAY FOR THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA
KEA AND MAUNA LOA.

&&

$$
DONALDSON










000
FXHW60 PHFO 040632
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH ALOFT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT THE HIGH ELEVATIONS ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO
BRING OVERCAST CLOUDS TO ALL THE ISLANDS. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO
THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING OVER THE AREA...BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS FROM MOLOKAI TO KAUAI. THE
WEATHER WILL TURN DRIER ON THURSDAY...BUT THAT MAY BE TEMPORARY. THE
TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SO MORE PERIODS OF
STORMY WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. A PERSISTENT TROUGH ALOFT
MADE THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER
THE BIG ISLAND SLOPES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS OF 800 PM...THE
THUNDER HAD ENDED ON THE BIG ISLAND...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
UNSTABLE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI TONIGHT AND HEAVY SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.
TRADE-WIND WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AREAS. THICK LAYERED
CLOUDS WILL BLANKET THE SKIES OVER ALL THE ISLANDS.

A BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH ALOFT LIES NORTH OF THE AREA. A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AS THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER ON WEDNESDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. MORE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS ARE LIKELY
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE
TROUGH ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE SNOW OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS
ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MORE PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE
AS LONG AS THIS TROUGH REMAINS. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS WILL COME AS
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
SHORT WAVE AFFECTING THE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THEY DIFFER ON
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SUBSEQUENT SHORT WAVES.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER THE AREA
DUE TO THE TROUGH ALOFT. THE TURBULENCE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LONGER. AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT
FOR MTN OBSC OVER WINDWARD AREAS OF OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI AND
THOSE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LAYERED
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA MAY GET THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ICING...
SO AIRMET ZULU FOR ICING MAY BE NEEDED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM LANAI TO KAUAI BUT THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS OVER WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAY INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS HAVE
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STRONG TRADE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS STARTING AT 600 AM WEDNESDAY. ROUGH SURF WILL
BUILD ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...AND THIS SURF COULD REQUIRE A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY LATER IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...SURF IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK. A NORTH
SWELL ARRIVING SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ALONG THE
NORTH FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING 600 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE KAUAI...
KAIWI...MOLOKAI AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...WATERS WEST OF KAUAI...
MAALAEA BAY AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND FOR STRONG NORTHEAST
TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAUI AND THE
BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 600 AM THURSDAY FOR THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA
KEA AND MAUNA LOA.

&&

$$
DONALDSON










000
FXHW60 PHFO 040211
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
411 PM HST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS BLOWING OVER THE ISLANDS TONIGHT...BECOMING STRONGER THROUGH
FRIDAY. A TROUGH ALOFT NEAR THE STATE WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH THURSDAY.
TRADE WINDS WILL FOCUS RAINFALL OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES...WITH
SOME SHOWERS CARRYING OVER TO LEEWARD AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1038 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED 1500 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI
AND IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE STATE WHILE A WEST
TO EAST ORIENTED JET STREAM RUNS ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH.
INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS THE JET STREAM CARRYING A THICK BAND OF
LAYERED AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER HAWAII FROM THE WEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
SECTION OF THE BIG ISLAND. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE TRIGGERED BY A
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...INSTABILITY CAUSED BY THE
INCOMING TROUGH ALOFT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE.

THE BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE AREA
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AND
THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS. THE FOCUS
OF THIS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS...WE EXPECT HEAVY RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI AND A
WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS...BOTH
PRODUCTS GO THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONCERNING THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH...WHILE BOTH ISLANDS ARE ENTIRELY INCLUDED WITHIN THE
WATCH...TRADE WINDS WILL FOCUS THE MORE PERSISTENT RAIN ACROSS THE
WINDWARD SLOPES. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE BIG ISLAND AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS ON THURSDAY...AND MAY
RESULT IN ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVEL WINDS FOR THE BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR KAUAI...OAHU AND THE REMAINDER OF MAUI COUNTY...TRADE WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SURFACE HIGH
FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES CLOSER. THE
TRADES WILL USHER IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE
FOCUS OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES. WE ANTICIPATE OVERALL LESS
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...THUS LESS SHOWER
COVERAGE AND LIGHTER PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED. TRADE WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE HIGH BEGINS TO
TRACK BACK TO THE NORTH.

THE WEEKEND COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR MORE DETAILS IN THE COMING DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON THE BIG ISLAND SLOPES...LEADING TO CB
TOPS TO FL300 AND LIGHTNING...WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO
FOCUS OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. AIRMET SIERRA IS POSTED FOR
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER N THRU E SECTIONS OF OAHU AND MAUI. THESE
MORE ACTIVE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
PERIODS. THE EASTERN ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AND
WINDWARD MAUI...WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE HEAVY SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
SEEING PREVAILING MVFR WITH ISOL TO TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS STARTING
LATE TONIGHT. AIRMET SIERRA WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED LATER THIS
EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS OVER THE BIG ISLAND
THIS EVENING AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND OVER MAUI COUNTY LATE
TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE ISLANDS IS CARRYING ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR
TO KEEP AIRMET TANGO POSTED FOR TEMPO MOD TURB BETWEEN FL250 AND
FL400. ADDITIONALLY...A THICK MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK PASSING
OVER THE ISLANDS ALONG THE JET. THEY MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TONIGHT TO
PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF AIRMET ZULU FOR LIGHT TO MOD RIME ICING ABOVE
130.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS TONIGHT BUT
THE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TOMORROW AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS BY WEDNESDAY. THE
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES AS WELL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY LATER IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE SURF IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAUI AND THE
BIG ISLAND.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 040211
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
411 PM HST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS BLOWING OVER THE ISLANDS TONIGHT...BECOMING STRONGER THROUGH
FRIDAY. A TROUGH ALOFT NEAR THE STATE WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH THURSDAY.
TRADE WINDS WILL FOCUS RAINFALL OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES...WITH
SOME SHOWERS CARRYING OVER TO LEEWARD AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1038 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED 1500 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI
AND IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE STATE WHILE A WEST
TO EAST ORIENTED JET STREAM RUNS ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH.
INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS THE JET STREAM CARRYING A THICK BAND OF
LAYERED AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER HAWAII FROM THE WEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
SECTION OF THE BIG ISLAND. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE TRIGGERED BY A
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...INSTABILITY CAUSED BY THE
INCOMING TROUGH ALOFT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE.

THE BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE AREA
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AND
THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS. THE FOCUS
OF THIS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS...WE EXPECT HEAVY RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI AND A
WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS...BOTH
PRODUCTS GO THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONCERNING THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH...WHILE BOTH ISLANDS ARE ENTIRELY INCLUDED WITHIN THE
WATCH...TRADE WINDS WILL FOCUS THE MORE PERSISTENT RAIN ACROSS THE
WINDWARD SLOPES. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE BIG ISLAND AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS ON THURSDAY...AND MAY
RESULT IN ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVEL WINDS FOR THE BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR KAUAI...OAHU AND THE REMAINDER OF MAUI COUNTY...TRADE WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SURFACE HIGH
FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES CLOSER. THE
TRADES WILL USHER IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE
FOCUS OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES. WE ANTICIPATE OVERALL LESS
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...THUS LESS SHOWER
COVERAGE AND LIGHTER PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED. TRADE WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE HIGH BEGINS TO
TRACK BACK TO THE NORTH.

THE WEEKEND COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR MORE DETAILS IN THE COMING DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON THE BIG ISLAND SLOPES...LEADING TO CB
TOPS TO FL300 AND LIGHTNING...WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO
FOCUS OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. AIRMET SIERRA IS POSTED FOR
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER N THRU E SECTIONS OF OAHU AND MAUI. THESE
MORE ACTIVE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
PERIODS. THE EASTERN ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AND
WINDWARD MAUI...WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE HEAVY SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
SEEING PREVAILING MVFR WITH ISOL TO TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS STARTING
LATE TONIGHT. AIRMET SIERRA WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED LATER THIS
EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS OVER THE BIG ISLAND
THIS EVENING AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND OVER MAUI COUNTY LATE
TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE ISLANDS IS CARRYING ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR
TO KEEP AIRMET TANGO POSTED FOR TEMPO MOD TURB BETWEEN FL250 AND
FL400. ADDITIONALLY...A THICK MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK PASSING
OVER THE ISLANDS ALONG THE JET. THEY MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TONIGHT TO
PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF AIRMET ZULU FOR LIGHT TO MOD RIME ICING ABOVE
130.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS TONIGHT BUT
THE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TOMORROW AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS BY WEDNESDAY. THE
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES AS WELL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY LATER IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE SURF IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAUI AND THE
BIG ISLAND.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 031949
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
949 AM HST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS BLOWING OVER THE ISLANDS. A TROUGH ALOFT WILL MAKE SHOWERS
ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1037 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED 1500 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI
AND IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE STATE THIS MORNING.
A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED JET STREAM ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
IS LOCATED OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE JET STREAM IS
CARRYING A THICK BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REST OF STATE BY THIS EVENING.

RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOVING IN WITH THE TRADE WINDS. THESE SHOWERS ARE FOCUSED OVER THE
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...WITH WINDWARD OAHU HAVING THE MOST
SHOWERS OUT OF ALL OF THE ISLANDS. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS...BUT INCREASE
OVER THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AS ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVES IN
FROM THE EAST. THERE BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THE DAY.

THE BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE AREA
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
MORE UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSHOWERS IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE TROUGH
ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW OVER THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS ON THE BIG ISLAND.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL SUBSIDE AGAIN STARTING THURSDAY AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...THE 1037 HIGH
WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS RESULTING IN
STRONGER TRADE WINDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TRADE WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR BACK OVER THE ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
NORTHEAST TRADES WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ISLANDS WILL HELP TO KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACTIVE...WITH SHOWERS MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS. EXPECT TEMPO MVFR WITHIN THESE SHOWERS. ENHANCED MOISTURE
LINGERS NEAR THE BIG ISLAND...AND COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...HEAVY SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SLOPES...REMAIN A POSSIBILITY.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE ISLANDS IS CARRYING ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR
TO KEEP AIRMET TANGO POSTED FOR TEMPO MOD TURB BETWEEN FL200 AND
FL320. ADDITIONALLY...A THICK MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS
APPROACHING THE ISLANDS ALONG THE JET. AS THESE CLOUDS BEGIN TO PASS
OVER...THEY MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF AIRMET ZULU
TO LIGHT TO MOD RIME ICING ABOVE 130.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS THROUGH TONIGHT
BUT THE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TOMORROW AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
THE TRADE WINDS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES.
THIS SURF COULD REQUIRE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY LATER IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE SURF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BUT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 031949
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
949 AM HST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS BLOWING OVER THE ISLANDS. A TROUGH ALOFT WILL MAKE SHOWERS
ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1037 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED 1500 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI
AND IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE STATE THIS MORNING.
A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED JET STREAM ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
IS LOCATED OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE JET STREAM IS
CARRYING A THICK BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REST OF STATE BY THIS EVENING.

RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOVING IN WITH THE TRADE WINDS. THESE SHOWERS ARE FOCUSED OVER THE
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...WITH WINDWARD OAHU HAVING THE MOST
SHOWERS OUT OF ALL OF THE ISLANDS. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS...BUT INCREASE
OVER THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AS ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVES IN
FROM THE EAST. THERE BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THE DAY.

THE BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE AREA
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
MORE UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSHOWERS IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE TROUGH
ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW OVER THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS ON THE BIG ISLAND.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL SUBSIDE AGAIN STARTING THURSDAY AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...THE 1037 HIGH
WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS RESULTING IN
STRONGER TRADE WINDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TRADE WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR BACK OVER THE ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
NORTHEAST TRADES WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ISLANDS WILL HELP TO KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACTIVE...WITH SHOWERS MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS. EXPECT TEMPO MVFR WITHIN THESE SHOWERS. ENHANCED MOISTURE
LINGERS NEAR THE BIG ISLAND...AND COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...HEAVY SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SLOPES...REMAIN A POSSIBILITY.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE ISLANDS IS CARRYING ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR
TO KEEP AIRMET TANGO POSTED FOR TEMPO MOD TURB BETWEEN FL200 AND
FL320. ADDITIONALLY...A THICK MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS
APPROACHING THE ISLANDS ALONG THE JET. AS THESE CLOUDS BEGIN TO PASS
OVER...THEY MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF AIRMET ZULU
TO LIGHT TO MOD RIME ICING ABOVE 130.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS THROUGH TONIGHT
BUT THE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TOMORROW AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
THE TRADE WINDS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES.
THIS SURF COULD REQUIRE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY LATER IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE SURF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BUT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 031949
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
949 AM HST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS BLOWING OVER THE ISLANDS. A TROUGH ALOFT WILL MAKE SHOWERS
ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1037 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED 1500 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI
AND IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE STATE THIS MORNING.
A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED JET STREAM ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
IS LOCATED OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE JET STREAM IS
CARRYING A THICK BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REST OF STATE BY THIS EVENING.

RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOVING IN WITH THE TRADE WINDS. THESE SHOWERS ARE FOCUSED OVER THE
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...WITH WINDWARD OAHU HAVING THE MOST
SHOWERS OUT OF ALL OF THE ISLANDS. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS...BUT INCREASE
OVER THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AS ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVES IN
FROM THE EAST. THERE BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THE DAY.

THE BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE AREA
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
MORE UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSHOWERS IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE TROUGH
ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW OVER THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS ON THE BIG ISLAND.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL SUBSIDE AGAIN STARTING THURSDAY AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...THE 1037 HIGH
WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS RESULTING IN
STRONGER TRADE WINDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TRADE WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR BACK OVER THE ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
NORTHEAST TRADES WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ISLANDS WILL HELP TO KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACTIVE...WITH SHOWERS MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS. EXPECT TEMPO MVFR WITHIN THESE SHOWERS. ENHANCED MOISTURE
LINGERS NEAR THE BIG ISLAND...AND COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...HEAVY SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SLOPES...REMAIN A POSSIBILITY.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE ISLANDS IS CARRYING ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR
TO KEEP AIRMET TANGO POSTED FOR TEMPO MOD TURB BETWEEN FL200 AND
FL320. ADDITIONALLY...A THICK MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS
APPROACHING THE ISLANDS ALONG THE JET. AS THESE CLOUDS BEGIN TO PASS
OVER...THEY MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF AIRMET ZULU
TO LIGHT TO MOD RIME ICING ABOVE 130.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS THROUGH TONIGHT
BUT THE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TOMORROW AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
THE TRADE WINDS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES.
THIS SURF COULD REQUIRE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY LATER IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE SURF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BUT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 031949
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
949 AM HST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS BLOWING OVER THE ISLANDS. A TROUGH ALOFT WILL MAKE SHOWERS
ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1037 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED 1500 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI
AND IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE STATE THIS MORNING.
A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED JET STREAM ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
IS LOCATED OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE JET STREAM IS
CARRYING A THICK BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REST OF STATE BY THIS EVENING.

RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOVING IN WITH THE TRADE WINDS. THESE SHOWERS ARE FOCUSED OVER THE
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...WITH WINDWARD OAHU HAVING THE MOST
SHOWERS OUT OF ALL OF THE ISLANDS. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS...BUT INCREASE
OVER THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AS ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVES IN
FROM THE EAST. THERE BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THE DAY.

THE BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE AREA
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
MORE UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSHOWERS IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE TROUGH
ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW OVER THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS ON THE BIG ISLAND.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL SUBSIDE AGAIN STARTING THURSDAY AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...THE 1037 HIGH
WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS RESULTING IN
STRONGER TRADE WINDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TRADE WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR BACK OVER THE ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
NORTHEAST TRADES WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ISLANDS WILL HELP TO KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACTIVE...WITH SHOWERS MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS. EXPECT TEMPO MVFR WITHIN THESE SHOWERS. ENHANCED MOISTURE
LINGERS NEAR THE BIG ISLAND...AND COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...HEAVY SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SLOPES...REMAIN A POSSIBILITY.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE ISLANDS IS CARRYING ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR
TO KEEP AIRMET TANGO POSTED FOR TEMPO MOD TURB BETWEEN FL200 AND
FL320. ADDITIONALLY...A THICK MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS
APPROACHING THE ISLANDS ALONG THE JET. AS THESE CLOUDS BEGIN TO PASS
OVER...THEY MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF AIRMET ZULU
TO LIGHT TO MOD RIME ICING ABOVE 130.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS THROUGH TONIGHT
BUT THE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TOMORROW AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
THE TRADE WINDS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES.
THIS SURF COULD REQUIRE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY LATER IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE SURF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BUT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 031333
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING
OVER THE ISLANDS. A TROUGH ALOFT WILL MAKE SHOWERS ACTIVE...
ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST IS PRODUCING GENTLE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. MOST AREAS OF THE ISLANDS WERE QUITE DRY
OVERNIGHT BUT A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS OVER KAUAI KEPT THE GARDEN
ISLE WETTER THAN ANYPLACE ELSE. THE SHOWER LINE HAS PARTLY
DISSIPATED AND MOVED OFF TO THE WEST AND FAIR WEATHER NOW PREVAILS
OVER THE ISLANDS. MOSTLY DRY TRADE-WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE AROUND THE BIG ISLAND
BECAME DRIER AND MORE STABLE OVERNIGHT.  THE WEATHER AROUND THE BIG
ISLAND WILL BE LESS ACTIVE TODAY THAN IT HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

A BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE AREA FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
MORE UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST THREAT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BIG
ISLAND. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND
SNOW OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS ON THE BIG ISLAND.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL SUBSIDE AGAIN STARTING THURSDAY AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH WILL BUILD NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS
WILL BRING DRIER AIR BACK OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE TRADE WINDS MAY BE QUITE BREEZY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER THE AREA
DUE TO THE TROUGH ALOFT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING.
MTN OBSC IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE BIG ISLAND LATER TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS THROUGH TONIGHT
BUT THE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TOMORROW AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
THE TRADE WINDS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES.
THIS SURF COULD REQUIRE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY LATER IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE SURF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BUT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
DONALDSON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 030758 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 PM HST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
I HAVE UPDATED THE FORECASTS TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER
KAUAI THIS EVENING AND DECREASE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS A BIT OVER OAHU
AND MAUI COUNTY. ALSO...AIRMET SIERRA HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ADD MTN
OBSC FOR KAUAI AND DROP MTN OBSC FOR THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING
OVER THE ISLANDS. A TROUGH ALOFT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER WET...
ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE HEAVY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
EARLIER TODAY HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED...BUT AS OF 800 PM SOME SHOWERS
PERSISTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTHWEST IS PRODUCING GENTLE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS. THE TRADES ARE PUSHING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD
AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...BUT MOST AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS
WILL BE DRY OVERNIGHT. THE WEATHER OVER THE BIG ISLAND WILL BE LESS
ACTIVE TOMORROW WHILE MOSTLY DRY TRADE-WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT WEEK. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE
AND MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS IS POSSIBLE WITH
GREATEST THREAT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE TROUGH
ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW OVER THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS ON THE BIG ISLAND.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL SUBSIDE AGAIN STARTING THURSDAY AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH WILL BUILD NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS
WILL BRING DRIER AIR BACK OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE TRADE WINDS MAY BE QUITE BREEZY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT BUT A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS ON KAUAI. AIRMET SIERRA HAS BEEN UPDATED TO
DROP THE MTN OBSC ON THE BIG ISLAND AND ADD MTN OBSC ON KAUAI.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE REMAINS OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
DUE TO THE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THESE ISLANDS. AIRMET TANGO IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE...BUT WE EXPECT TO DROP THE AIRMET
LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS
EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH ON TUESDAY BUT MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE NORTHWEST SWELL THAT PROMPTED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY ON SUNDAY
HAS DIMINISHED RAPIDLY...SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
COMBINED SEAS HAVE ALSO DROPPED...SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
ALSO BE CANCELLED.

TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATER IN THE WEEK AS A STRONG HIGH
BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. THE TRADE
WINDS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. THIS SURF
COULD REQUIRE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY LATER IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE SURF
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
DONALDSON










000
FXHW60 PHFO 030758 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 PM HST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
I HAVE UPDATED THE FORECASTS TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER
KAUAI THIS EVENING AND DECREASE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS A BIT OVER OAHU
AND MAUI COUNTY. ALSO...AIRMET SIERRA HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ADD MTN
OBSC FOR KAUAI AND DROP MTN OBSC FOR THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING
OVER THE ISLANDS. A TROUGH ALOFT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER WET...
ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE HEAVY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
EARLIER TODAY HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED...BUT AS OF 800 PM SOME SHOWERS
PERSISTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTHWEST IS PRODUCING GENTLE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS. THE TRADES ARE PUSHING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD
AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...BUT MOST AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS
WILL BE DRY OVERNIGHT. THE WEATHER OVER THE BIG ISLAND WILL BE LESS
ACTIVE TOMORROW WHILE MOSTLY DRY TRADE-WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT WEEK. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE
AND MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS IS POSSIBLE WITH
GREATEST THREAT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE TROUGH
ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW OVER THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS ON THE BIG ISLAND.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL SUBSIDE AGAIN STARTING THURSDAY AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH WILL BUILD NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS
WILL BRING DRIER AIR BACK OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE TRADE WINDS MAY BE QUITE BREEZY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT BUT A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS ON KAUAI. AIRMET SIERRA HAS BEEN UPDATED TO
DROP THE MTN OBSC ON THE BIG ISLAND AND ADD MTN OBSC ON KAUAI.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE REMAINS OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
DUE TO THE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THESE ISLANDS. AIRMET TANGO IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE...BUT WE EXPECT TO DROP THE AIRMET
LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS
EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH ON TUESDAY BUT MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE NORTHWEST SWELL THAT PROMPTED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY ON SUNDAY
HAS DIMINISHED RAPIDLY...SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
COMBINED SEAS HAVE ALSO DROPPED...SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
ALSO BE CANCELLED.

TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATER IN THE WEEK AS A STRONG HIGH
BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. THE TRADE
WINDS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. THIS SURF
COULD REQUIRE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY LATER IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE SURF
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
DONALDSON











000
FXHW60 PHFO 030758 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 PM HST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
I HAVE UPDATED THE FORECASTS TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER
KAUAI THIS EVENING AND DECREASE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS A BIT OVER OAHU
AND MAUI COUNTY. ALSO...AIRMET SIERRA HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ADD MTN
OBSC FOR KAUAI AND DROP MTN OBSC FOR THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING
OVER THE ISLANDS. A TROUGH ALOFT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER WET...
ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE HEAVY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
EARLIER TODAY HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED...BUT AS OF 800 PM SOME SHOWERS
PERSISTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTHWEST IS PRODUCING GENTLE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS. THE TRADES ARE PUSHING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD
AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...BUT MOST AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS
WILL BE DRY OVERNIGHT. THE WEATHER OVER THE BIG ISLAND WILL BE LESS
ACTIVE TOMORROW WHILE MOSTLY DRY TRADE-WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT WEEK. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE
AND MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS IS POSSIBLE WITH
GREATEST THREAT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE TROUGH
ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW OVER THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS ON THE BIG ISLAND.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL SUBSIDE AGAIN STARTING THURSDAY AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH WILL BUILD NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS
WILL BRING DRIER AIR BACK OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE TRADE WINDS MAY BE QUITE BREEZY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT BUT A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS ON KAUAI. AIRMET SIERRA HAS BEEN UPDATED TO
DROP THE MTN OBSC ON THE BIG ISLAND AND ADD MTN OBSC ON KAUAI.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE REMAINS OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
DUE TO THE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THESE ISLANDS. AIRMET TANGO IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE...BUT WE EXPECT TO DROP THE AIRMET
LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS
EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH ON TUESDAY BUT MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE NORTHWEST SWELL THAT PROMPTED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY ON SUNDAY
HAS DIMINISHED RAPIDLY...SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
COMBINED SEAS HAVE ALSO DROPPED...SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
ALSO BE CANCELLED.

TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATER IN THE WEEK AS A STRONG HIGH
BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. THE TRADE
WINDS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. THIS SURF
COULD REQUIRE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY LATER IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE SURF
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
DONALDSON










000
FXHW60 PHFO 030758 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 PM HST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
I HAVE UPDATED THE FORECASTS TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER
KAUAI THIS EVENING AND DECREASE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS A BIT OVER OAHU
AND MAUI COUNTY. ALSO...AIRMET SIERRA HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ADD MTN
OBSC FOR KAUAI AND DROP MTN OBSC FOR THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING
OVER THE ISLANDS. A TROUGH ALOFT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER WET...
ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE HEAVY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
EARLIER TODAY HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED...BUT AS OF 800 PM SOME SHOWERS
PERSISTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTHWEST IS PRODUCING GENTLE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS. THE TRADES ARE PUSHING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD
AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...BUT MOST AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS
WILL BE DRY OVERNIGHT. THE WEATHER OVER THE BIG ISLAND WILL BE LESS
ACTIVE TOMORROW WHILE MOSTLY DRY TRADE-WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT WEEK. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE
AND MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS IS POSSIBLE WITH
GREATEST THREAT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE TROUGH
ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW OVER THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS ON THE BIG ISLAND.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL SUBSIDE AGAIN STARTING THURSDAY AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH WILL BUILD NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS
WILL BRING DRIER AIR BACK OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE TRADE WINDS MAY BE QUITE BREEZY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT BUT A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS ON KAUAI. AIRMET SIERRA HAS BEEN UPDATED TO
DROP THE MTN OBSC ON THE BIG ISLAND AND ADD MTN OBSC ON KAUAI.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE REMAINS OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
DUE TO THE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THESE ISLANDS. AIRMET TANGO IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE...BUT WE EXPECT TO DROP THE AIRMET
LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS
EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH ON TUESDAY BUT MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE NORTHWEST SWELL THAT PROMPTED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY ON SUNDAY
HAS DIMINISHED RAPIDLY...SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
COMBINED SEAS HAVE ALSO DROPPED...SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
ALSO BE CANCELLED.

TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATER IN THE WEEK AS A STRONG HIGH
BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. THE TRADE
WINDS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. THIS SURF
COULD REQUIRE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY LATER IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE SURF
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
DONALDSON











000
FXHW60 PHFO 030705
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING
OVER THE ISLANDS. A TROUGH ALOFT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER WET...
ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE HEAVY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
EARLIER TODAY HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED...BUT AS OF 800 PM SOME SHOWERS
PERSISTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTHWEST IS PRODUCING GENTLE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS. THE TRADES ARE PUSHING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD
AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...BUT MOST AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS
WILL BE DRY OVERNIGHT. THE WEATHER OVER THE BIG ISLAND WILL BE LESS
ACTIVE TOMORROW WHILE MOSTLY DRY TRADE-WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT WEEK. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE
AND MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS IS POSSIBLE WITH
GREATEST THREAT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE TROUGH
ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW OVER THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS ON THE BIG ISLAND.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL SUBSIDE AGAIN STARTING THURSDAY AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH WILL BUILD NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS
WILL BRING DRIER AIR BACK OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE TRADE WINDS MAY BE QUITE BREEZY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC REMAINS UP FOR THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE
BIG ISLAND AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WATER E
THRU S OF THE BIG ISLAND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE REMAINS OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
DUE TO THE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THESE ISLANDS. AIRMET TANGO IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE...BUT WE EXPECT TO DROP THE AIRMET
LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS
EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH ON TUESDAY BUT MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE NORTHWEST SWELL THAT PROMPTED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY ON SUNDAY
HAS DIMINISHED RAPIDLY...SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
COMBINED SEAS HAVE ALSO DROPPED...SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
ALSO BE CANCELLED.

TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATER IN THE WEEK AS A STRONG HIGH
BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. THE TRADE
WINDS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. THIS SURF
COULD REQUIRE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY LATER IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE SURF
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
DONALDSON









000
FXHW60 PHFO 030705
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING
OVER THE ISLANDS. A TROUGH ALOFT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER WET...
ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE HEAVY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
EARLIER TODAY HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED...BUT AS OF 800 PM SOME SHOWERS
PERSISTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTHWEST IS PRODUCING GENTLE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS. THE TRADES ARE PUSHING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD
AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...BUT MOST AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS
WILL BE DRY OVERNIGHT. THE WEATHER OVER THE BIG ISLAND WILL BE LESS
ACTIVE TOMORROW WHILE MOSTLY DRY TRADE-WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT WEEK. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE
AND MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS IS POSSIBLE WITH
GREATEST THREAT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE TROUGH
ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW OVER THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS ON THE BIG ISLAND.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL SUBSIDE AGAIN STARTING THURSDAY AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH WILL BUILD NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS
WILL BRING DRIER AIR BACK OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE TRADE WINDS MAY BE QUITE BREEZY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC REMAINS UP FOR THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE
BIG ISLAND AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WATER E
THRU S OF THE BIG ISLAND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE REMAINS OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
DUE TO THE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THESE ISLANDS. AIRMET TANGO IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE...BUT WE EXPECT TO DROP THE AIRMET
LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS
EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH ON TUESDAY BUT MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE NORTHWEST SWELL THAT PROMPTED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY ON SUNDAY
HAS DIMINISHED RAPIDLY...SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
COMBINED SEAS HAVE ALSO DROPPED...SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
ALSO BE CANCELLED.

TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATER IN THE WEEK AS A STRONG HIGH
BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. THE TRADE
WINDS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. THIS SURF
COULD REQUIRE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY LATER IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE SURF
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
DONALDSON










000
FXHW60 PHFO 030705
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING
OVER THE ISLANDS. A TROUGH ALOFT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER WET...
ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE HEAVY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
EARLIER TODAY HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED...BUT AS OF 800 PM SOME SHOWERS
PERSISTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTHWEST IS PRODUCING GENTLE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS. THE TRADES ARE PUSHING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD
AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...BUT MOST AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS
WILL BE DRY OVERNIGHT. THE WEATHER OVER THE BIG ISLAND WILL BE LESS
ACTIVE TOMORROW WHILE MOSTLY DRY TRADE-WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT WEEK. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE
AND MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS IS POSSIBLE WITH
GREATEST THREAT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE TROUGH
ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW OVER THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS ON THE BIG ISLAND.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL SUBSIDE AGAIN STARTING THURSDAY AS THE
SHORT-WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH WILL BUILD NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS
WILL BRING DRIER AIR BACK OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE TRADE WINDS MAY BE QUITE BREEZY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC REMAINS UP FOR THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE
BIG ISLAND AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WATER E
THRU S OF THE BIG ISLAND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE REMAINS OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
DUE TO THE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THESE ISLANDS. AIRMET TANGO IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE...BUT WE EXPECT TO DROP THE AIRMET
LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS
EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH ON TUESDAY BUT MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE NORTHWEST SWELL THAT PROMPTED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY ON SUNDAY
HAS DIMINISHED RAPIDLY...SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
COMBINED SEAS HAVE ALSO DROPPED...SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
ALSO BE CANCELLED.

TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATER IN THE WEEK AS A STRONG HIGH
BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. THE TRADE
WINDS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. THIS SURF
COULD REQUIRE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY LATER IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE SURF
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
DONALDSON









000
FXHW60 PHFO 030211
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
411 PM HST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A THREAT
FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS THERE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MORE
LIMITED MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS COULD LEAD TO ENHANCED SHOWERS AT TIMES. DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS WEEK.
COOL...BRISK TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE STATE STARTING
ON THURSDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
A TALE OF TWO AIRMASSES OVER THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. A VERY DRY
AIRMASS COVERS THE SMALLER ISLANDS...AND THE 00 UTC PRECIPITABLE
WATER /PW/ AT LIHUE CAME IN EVEN DRIER THAN 12 HOURS AGO AT JUST
0.77 INCHES. MEANWHILE ON THE BIG ISLAND...MUCH MORE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WAS INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ISLANDS TO
GENERATE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HILO
SOUNDING HAD A PW OF 1.74 INCHES...NO CHANGE IN THE LAST 12 HOURS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ISLANDS IS KEEPING ALL AREAS QUITE
UNSTABLE...BUT THERE IS JUST NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TO
GENERATE A LOT OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MAIN ISLANDS.

THE MODELS SHOW THE PESKY MOISTURE BOUNDARY REMAINING A
COMPLICATING FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
WEATHER FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET FOR THE
MOST PART...BUT A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
PASSING BY THE ISLANDS TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT MAY HELP TO SHIFT
THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH...AND REIGNITE THIS
MOISTURE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS AS
IT PASSES BY. HIGHEST THREAT FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR
THE BIG ISLAND WHERE SOME HEAVY/THUNDER WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED TO
THE GRIDS...AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW AT THE
SUMMITS.

ONCE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PASSES BY...THE WEATHER SHOULD SETTLE
DOWN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FAR TO OUR NW WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE
E...CAUSING OUR TRADES TO STRENGTHEN BY THU. THE TRADES WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY...AND THE DRIER AIR OVER
THE NORTHERN MAIN ISLANDS WILL PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER DOWN THE
CHAIN BY THE WEEKEND. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT IN THE LONGER
RANGE...THE GFS STILL WANTS TO BRING DEEP MOISTURE BACK UP OVER
THE ISLANDS AND GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALL NEXT WEEK...BUT THE OTHER
MODELS DO NOT AGREE. FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL SHOW AN IMPROVING
TREND THU INTO THE WEEKEND WITH COOL...BRISK TRADES.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WAS EXPANDED TO COVER MOST
OF THE BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EXPANDED
ACROSS THE ISLAND. ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER THE
SOUTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME OBSCURATION
REMAINING OVER THE EAST SIDE OF THE ISLAND.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE REMAINS OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
DUE TO THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THESE ISLANDS. AIRMET TANGO
CONTINUES TO BE POSTED FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE...BUT EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY EVENING.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE BIG ISLAND ARE DUE TO THE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND DAYTIME HEATING...AND ARE BRINGING MVFR AND
ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. ANTICIPATE THE BIG ISLAND TO
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE EAST SIDE OF THE ISLAND.
ELSEWHERE...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE
TERMINALS...WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS FOUND OVER WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH PASSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE BIG ISLAND HAS COMBINED WITH A TROUGH
ALOFT TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WATERS E THROUGH S OF THE BIG ISLAND. A MODERATE NW SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FALL BELOW 10 FT
BY MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MOST WATERS
AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR N AND W FACING SHORES ARE IN EFFECT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN NW OF THE STATE THROUGH THE
WEEK RESULTING IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE WED INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS. ALSO...WITH THE STRONG TRADES BLOWING FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THE EAST FACING SHORES BEGINNING THURSDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT HST TONIGHT FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU
KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-
WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT HST TONIGHT FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI
CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.


&&

$$
DISCUSSION...R BALLARD
AVIATION...M BALLARD
MARINE...EVANS








000
FXHW60 PHFO 030211
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
411 PM HST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A THREAT
FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS THERE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MORE
LIMITED MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS COULD LEAD TO ENHANCED SHOWERS AT TIMES. DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS WEEK.
COOL...BRISK TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE STATE STARTING
ON THURSDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
A TALE OF TWO AIRMASSES OVER THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. A VERY DRY
AIRMASS COVERS THE SMALLER ISLANDS...AND THE 00 UTC PRECIPITABLE
WATER /PW/ AT LIHUE CAME IN EVEN DRIER THAN 12 HOURS AGO AT JUST
0.77 INCHES. MEANWHILE ON THE BIG ISLAND...MUCH MORE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WAS INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ISLANDS TO
GENERATE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HILO
SOUNDING HAD A PW OF 1.74 INCHES...NO CHANGE IN THE LAST 12 HOURS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ISLANDS IS KEEPING ALL AREAS QUITE
UNSTABLE...BUT THERE IS JUST NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TO
GENERATE A LOT OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MAIN ISLANDS.

THE MODELS SHOW THE PESKY MOISTURE BOUNDARY REMAINING A
COMPLICATING FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
WEATHER FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET FOR THE
MOST PART...BUT A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
PASSING BY THE ISLANDS TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT MAY HELP TO SHIFT
THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH...AND REIGNITE THIS
MOISTURE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS AS
IT PASSES BY. HIGHEST THREAT FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR
THE BIG ISLAND WHERE SOME HEAVY/THUNDER WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED TO
THE GRIDS...AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW AT THE
SUMMITS.

ONCE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PASSES BY...THE WEATHER SHOULD SETTLE
DOWN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FAR TO OUR NW WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE
E...CAUSING OUR TRADES TO STRENGTHEN BY THU. THE TRADES WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY...AND THE DRIER AIR OVER
THE NORTHERN MAIN ISLANDS WILL PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER DOWN THE
CHAIN BY THE WEEKEND. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT IN THE LONGER
RANGE...THE GFS STILL WANTS TO BRING DEEP MOISTURE BACK UP OVER
THE ISLANDS AND GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALL NEXT WEEK...BUT THE OTHER
MODELS DO NOT AGREE. FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL SHOW AN IMPROVING
TREND THU INTO THE WEEKEND WITH COOL...BRISK TRADES.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WAS EXPANDED TO COVER MOST
OF THE BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EXPANDED
ACROSS THE ISLAND. ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER THE
SOUTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME OBSCURATION
REMAINING OVER THE EAST SIDE OF THE ISLAND.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE REMAINS OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
DUE TO THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THESE ISLANDS. AIRMET TANGO
CONTINUES TO BE POSTED FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE...BUT EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY EVENING.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE BIG ISLAND ARE DUE TO THE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND DAYTIME HEATING...AND ARE BRINGING MVFR AND
ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. ANTICIPATE THE BIG ISLAND TO
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE EAST SIDE OF THE ISLAND.
ELSEWHERE...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE
TERMINALS...WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS FOUND OVER WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH PASSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE BIG ISLAND HAS COMBINED WITH A TROUGH
ALOFT TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WATERS E THROUGH S OF THE BIG ISLAND. A MODERATE NW SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FALL BELOW 10 FT
BY MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MOST WATERS
AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR N AND W FACING SHORES ARE IN EFFECT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN NW OF THE STATE THROUGH THE
WEEK RESULTING IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE WED INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS. ALSO...WITH THE STRONG TRADES BLOWING FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THE EAST FACING SHORES BEGINNING THURSDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT HST TONIGHT FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU
KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-
WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT HST TONIGHT FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI
CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.


&&

$$
DISCUSSION...R BALLARD
AVIATION...M BALLARD
MARINE...EVANS







000
FXHW60 PHFO 022035
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1035 AM HST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A THREAT
FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS THERE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MORE
LIMITED MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS COULD LEAD TO ENHANCED SHOWERS AT TIMES. DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS WEEK.
TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE STATE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE STATE TODAY WITH LOTS OF
FEATURES CONTRIBUTING THEIR PART TO THE WEATHER PUZZLE. A SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SPLIT THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
WITH DRY AIR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ VALUES BELOW 1 INCH NEAR
KAUAI...AND MOIST AIR WITH PW VALUES OVER 1.75 INCHES AROUND THE
BIG ISLAND. A BROAD MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER AND TO THE NW
OF THE ISLANDS IS MAKING THE AIRMASS MORE UNSTABLE OVER THE
STATE...BUT AT THE MOMENT MOST OF THE ISLANDS APPEAR TO BE IN A
ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT BEHIND AN UPPER LOW ABOUT 370
MILES TO THE NE OF OAHU.

ONE EXCEPTION IS A SMALL AREA OF ACTIVE SHOWERS RIDING IN ON THE
TRADE WINDS ABOUT 70 MILES TO THE NE OF OAHU AND MOLOKAI. THIS
AREA HAS BEEN MOVING SW AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH...AND IS FIGHTING
WHAT IS OUR CLIMATOLOGICALLY LEAST ACTIVE TIME OF DAY WITH COLD
TOPS AND EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. SHOULD BE MOVING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND REACH OUR SHORES DURING THE LATE-MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE ADJUSTED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO
BETTER CAPTURE THIS AREA. ANOTHER AREA WHERE THINGS WILL GET
ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THE PUNA DISTRICT OF THE BIG
ISLAND...AS WELL AS THE BIG ISLAND SLOPES WHERE HEAVY THUNDERSHOWERS
SHOULD BLOW UP THANKS TO MOIST SEA BREEZES AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

OTHER THAN THAT...WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
FOR MOST PLACES TODAY AND TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SUBSIDENCE. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE
S OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL SLOSH BACK N AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE BROAD TROUGH TUE INTO WED...AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
PASSES BY TO THE N. THIS WILL PUT US UNDER A ZONE OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET...HELPING TO
REACTIVATE HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS...MAINLY FOR WINDWARD
BIG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY MAUI COUNTY. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW
MUCH ENHANCEMENT OAHU WILL SEE...WITH THE OUTLIER GFS SOLUTION
SHOWING MORE OF A NORTHWARD PUSH TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE THAN THE
OTHER MODELS. KAUAI LOOKS TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE DEEP MOISTURE
TO HAVE MANY ISSUES. THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THESE SOMEWHAT SUBTLE FEATURES THAT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH YET...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THINGS.

DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS S AGAIN STARTING THU...BRINGING A
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH JUST TO THE N OF THE ISLANDS AND
HELPING TO ENHANCE ANY PATCHES OF TRADE WIND CUMULUS THAT ARE
RIDING BY. TYPICALLY THESE PATTERNS YIELD LOTS OF SUNSHINE
ESPECIALLY FOR LEEWARD SECTIONS...BUT WHEN SHOWERS BLOW THROUGH
THEY CAN COME DOWN HARD FOR A FEW MINUTES BEFORE THE SUN COMES
BACK OUT AGAIN. THE WEATHER WILL PROBABLY REMAIN A LITTLE MORE
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY DURING THIS PERIOD FOR WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...
ALONG WITH CLOUDY...SHOWERY AFTERNOONS OVER THE KONA SLOPES.

WILL BE MAKING SOME GRID ADJUSTMENTS TODAY TO REFLECT THESE IDEAS
IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION REMAINS POSTED OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. THIS AIRMET
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED DEPENDING ON AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THAT IS EXPECTED OVER THE BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE REMAINS OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
DUE TO THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THESE ISLANDS. ANTICIPATE THESE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.

INSTABILITY TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF MAUI...MOLOKAI AND OAHU
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH COULD SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WATERS IN THAT AREA. DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE BIG ISLAND
COULD ALSO SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE...PREDOMINANTLY
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS...WITH ISOLATED IFR
CONDITIONS FOUND OVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH PASSING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH FAR TO THE NW OF THE
ISLANDS AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE BIG ISLAND WILL KEEP
WINDS NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ LEVELS IN SOME AREAS AROUND
KAUAI TODAY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD WHICH WILL LEAD TO
STRONGER TRADES FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...STRONGEST NEAR
KAUAI. THE WINDS TODAY IN COMBINATION WITH A QUICK PULSE OF NW
SWELL WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST WATERS. THE SCA WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AND EXTENDED AS THE WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT HST TONIGHT FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU
KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-
WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR BIG
ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT HST TONIGHT FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI
CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.


&&

$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE...R BALLARD
AVIATION...M BALLARD










000
FXHW60 PHFO 022035
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1035 AM HST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A THREAT
FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS THERE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MORE
LIMITED MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS COULD LEAD TO ENHANCED SHOWERS AT TIMES. DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS WEEK.
TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE STATE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE STATE TODAY WITH LOTS OF
FEATURES CONTRIBUTING THEIR PART TO THE WEATHER PUZZLE. A SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SPLIT THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
WITH DRY AIR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ VALUES BELOW 1 INCH NEAR
KAUAI...AND MOIST AIR WITH PW VALUES OVER 1.75 INCHES AROUND THE
BIG ISLAND. A BROAD MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER AND TO THE NW
OF THE ISLANDS IS MAKING THE AIRMASS MORE UNSTABLE OVER THE
STATE...BUT AT THE MOMENT MOST OF THE ISLANDS APPEAR TO BE IN A
ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT BEHIND AN UPPER LOW ABOUT 370
MILES TO THE NE OF OAHU.

ONE EXCEPTION IS A SMALL AREA OF ACTIVE SHOWERS RIDING IN ON THE
TRADE WINDS ABOUT 70 MILES TO THE NE OF OAHU AND MOLOKAI. THIS
AREA HAS BEEN MOVING SW AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH...AND IS FIGHTING
WHAT IS OUR CLIMATOLOGICALLY LEAST ACTIVE TIME OF DAY WITH COLD
TOPS AND EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. SHOULD BE MOVING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND REACH OUR SHORES DURING THE LATE-MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE ADJUSTED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO
BETTER CAPTURE THIS AREA. ANOTHER AREA WHERE THINGS WILL GET
ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THE PUNA DISTRICT OF THE BIG
ISLAND...AS WELL AS THE BIG ISLAND SLOPES WHERE HEAVY THUNDERSHOWERS
SHOULD BLOW UP THANKS TO MOIST SEA BREEZES AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

OTHER THAN THAT...WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
FOR MOST PLACES TODAY AND TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SUBSIDENCE. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE
S OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL SLOSH BACK N AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE BROAD TROUGH TUE INTO WED...AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
PASSES BY TO THE N. THIS WILL PUT US UNDER A ZONE OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET...HELPING TO
REACTIVATE HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS...MAINLY FOR WINDWARD
BIG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY MAUI COUNTY. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW
MUCH ENHANCEMENT OAHU WILL SEE...WITH THE OUTLIER GFS SOLUTION
SHOWING MORE OF A NORTHWARD PUSH TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE THAN THE
OTHER MODELS. KAUAI LOOKS TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE DEEP MOISTURE
TO HAVE MANY ISSUES. THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THESE SOMEWHAT SUBTLE FEATURES THAT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH YET...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THINGS.

DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS S AGAIN STARTING THU...BRINGING A
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH JUST TO THE N OF THE ISLANDS AND
HELPING TO ENHANCE ANY PATCHES OF TRADE WIND CUMULUS THAT ARE
RIDING BY. TYPICALLY THESE PATTERNS YIELD LOTS OF SUNSHINE
ESPECIALLY FOR LEEWARD SECTIONS...BUT WHEN SHOWERS BLOW THROUGH
THEY CAN COME DOWN HARD FOR A FEW MINUTES BEFORE THE SUN COMES
BACK OUT AGAIN. THE WEATHER WILL PROBABLY REMAIN A LITTLE MORE
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY DURING THIS PERIOD FOR WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...
ALONG WITH CLOUDY...SHOWERY AFTERNOONS OVER THE KONA SLOPES.

WILL BE MAKING SOME GRID ADJUSTMENTS TODAY TO REFLECT THESE IDEAS
IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION REMAINS POSTED OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. THIS AIRMET
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED DEPENDING ON AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THAT IS EXPECTED OVER THE BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE REMAINS OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
DUE TO THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THESE ISLANDS. ANTICIPATE THESE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.

INSTABILITY TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF MAUI...MOLOKAI AND OAHU
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH COULD SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WATERS IN THAT AREA. DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE BIG ISLAND
COULD ALSO SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE...PREDOMINANTLY
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS...WITH ISOLATED IFR
CONDITIONS FOUND OVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH PASSING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH FAR TO THE NW OF THE
ISLANDS AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE BIG ISLAND WILL KEEP
WINDS NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ LEVELS IN SOME AREAS AROUND
KAUAI TODAY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD WHICH WILL LEAD TO
STRONGER TRADES FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...STRONGEST NEAR
KAUAI. THE WINDS TODAY IN COMBINATION WITH A QUICK PULSE OF NW
SWELL WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST WATERS. THE SCA WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AND EXTENDED AS THE WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT HST TONIGHT FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU
KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-
WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR BIG
ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT HST TONIGHT FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI
CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.


&&

$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE...R BALLARD
AVIATION...M BALLARD









000
FXHW60 PHFO 022035
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1035 AM HST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A THREAT
FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS THERE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MORE
LIMITED MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS COULD LEAD TO ENHANCED SHOWERS AT TIMES. DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS WEEK.
TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE STATE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE STATE TODAY WITH LOTS OF
FEATURES CONTRIBUTING THEIR PART TO THE WEATHER PUZZLE. A SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SPLIT THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
WITH DRY AIR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ VALUES BELOW 1 INCH NEAR
KAUAI...AND MOIST AIR WITH PW VALUES OVER 1.75 INCHES AROUND THE
BIG ISLAND. A BROAD MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER AND TO THE NW
OF THE ISLANDS IS MAKING THE AIRMASS MORE UNSTABLE OVER THE
STATE...BUT AT THE MOMENT MOST OF THE ISLANDS APPEAR TO BE IN A
ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT BEHIND AN UPPER LOW ABOUT 370
MILES TO THE NE OF OAHU.

ONE EXCEPTION IS A SMALL AREA OF ACTIVE SHOWERS RIDING IN ON THE
TRADE WINDS ABOUT 70 MILES TO THE NE OF OAHU AND MOLOKAI. THIS
AREA HAS BEEN MOVING SW AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH...AND IS FIGHTING
WHAT IS OUR CLIMATOLOGICALLY LEAST ACTIVE TIME OF DAY WITH COLD
TOPS AND EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. SHOULD BE MOVING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND REACH OUR SHORES DURING THE LATE-MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE ADJUSTED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO
BETTER CAPTURE THIS AREA. ANOTHER AREA WHERE THINGS WILL GET
ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THE PUNA DISTRICT OF THE BIG
ISLAND...AS WELL AS THE BIG ISLAND SLOPES WHERE HEAVY THUNDERSHOWERS
SHOULD BLOW UP THANKS TO MOIST SEA BREEZES AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

OTHER THAN THAT...WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
FOR MOST PLACES TODAY AND TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SUBSIDENCE. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE
S OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL SLOSH BACK N AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE BROAD TROUGH TUE INTO WED...AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
PASSES BY TO THE N. THIS WILL PUT US UNDER A ZONE OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET...HELPING TO
REACTIVATE HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS...MAINLY FOR WINDWARD
BIG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY MAUI COUNTY. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW
MUCH ENHANCEMENT OAHU WILL SEE...WITH THE OUTLIER GFS SOLUTION
SHOWING MORE OF A NORTHWARD PUSH TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE THAN THE
OTHER MODELS. KAUAI LOOKS TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE DEEP MOISTURE
TO HAVE MANY ISSUES. THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THESE SOMEWHAT SUBTLE FEATURES THAT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH YET...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THINGS.

DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS S AGAIN STARTING THU...BRINGING A
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH JUST TO THE N OF THE ISLANDS AND
HELPING TO ENHANCE ANY PATCHES OF TRADE WIND CUMULUS THAT ARE
RIDING BY. TYPICALLY THESE PATTERNS YIELD LOTS OF SUNSHINE
ESPECIALLY FOR LEEWARD SECTIONS...BUT WHEN SHOWERS BLOW THROUGH
THEY CAN COME DOWN HARD FOR A FEW MINUTES BEFORE THE SUN COMES
BACK OUT AGAIN. THE WEATHER WILL PROBABLY REMAIN A LITTLE MORE
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY DURING THIS PERIOD FOR WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...
ALONG WITH CLOUDY...SHOWERY AFTERNOONS OVER THE KONA SLOPES.

WILL BE MAKING SOME GRID ADJUSTMENTS TODAY TO REFLECT THESE IDEAS
IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION REMAINS POSTED OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. THIS AIRMET
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED DEPENDING ON AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THAT IS EXPECTED OVER THE BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE REMAINS OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
DUE TO THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THESE ISLANDS. ANTICIPATE THESE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.

INSTABILITY TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF MAUI...MOLOKAI AND OAHU
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH COULD SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WATERS IN THAT AREA. DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE BIG ISLAND
COULD ALSO SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE...PREDOMINANTLY
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS...WITH ISOLATED IFR
CONDITIONS FOUND OVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH PASSING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH FAR TO THE NW OF THE
ISLANDS AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE BIG ISLAND WILL KEEP
WINDS NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ LEVELS IN SOME AREAS AROUND
KAUAI TODAY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD WHICH WILL LEAD TO
STRONGER TRADES FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...STRONGEST NEAR
KAUAI. THE WINDS TODAY IN COMBINATION WITH A QUICK PULSE OF NW
SWELL WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST WATERS. THE SCA WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AND EXTENDED AS THE WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT HST TONIGHT FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU
KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-
WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR BIG
ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT HST TONIGHT FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI
CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.


&&

$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE...R BALLARD
AVIATION...M BALLARD









000
FXHW60 PHFO 022035
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1035 AM HST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A THREAT
FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS THERE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MORE
LIMITED MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS COULD LEAD TO ENHANCED SHOWERS AT TIMES. DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS WEEK.
TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE STATE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE STATE TODAY WITH LOTS OF
FEATURES CONTRIBUTING THEIR PART TO THE WEATHER PUZZLE. A SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SPLIT THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
WITH DRY AIR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ VALUES BELOW 1 INCH NEAR
KAUAI...AND MOIST AIR WITH PW VALUES OVER 1.75 INCHES AROUND THE
BIG ISLAND. A BROAD MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER AND TO THE NW
OF THE ISLANDS IS MAKING THE AIRMASS MORE UNSTABLE OVER THE
STATE...BUT AT THE MOMENT MOST OF THE ISLANDS APPEAR TO BE IN A
ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT BEHIND AN UPPER LOW ABOUT 370
MILES TO THE NE OF OAHU.

ONE EXCEPTION IS A SMALL AREA OF ACTIVE SHOWERS RIDING IN ON THE
TRADE WINDS ABOUT 70 MILES TO THE NE OF OAHU AND MOLOKAI. THIS
AREA HAS BEEN MOVING SW AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH...AND IS FIGHTING
WHAT IS OUR CLIMATOLOGICALLY LEAST ACTIVE TIME OF DAY WITH COLD
TOPS AND EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. SHOULD BE MOVING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND REACH OUR SHORES DURING THE LATE-MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE ADJUSTED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO
BETTER CAPTURE THIS AREA. ANOTHER AREA WHERE THINGS WILL GET
ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THE PUNA DISTRICT OF THE BIG
ISLAND...AS WELL AS THE BIG ISLAND SLOPES WHERE HEAVY THUNDERSHOWERS
SHOULD BLOW UP THANKS TO MOIST SEA BREEZES AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

OTHER THAN THAT...WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
FOR MOST PLACES TODAY AND TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SUBSIDENCE. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE
S OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL SLOSH BACK N AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE BROAD TROUGH TUE INTO WED...AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
PASSES BY TO THE N. THIS WILL PUT US UNDER A ZONE OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET...HELPING TO
REACTIVATE HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS...MAINLY FOR WINDWARD
BIG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY MAUI COUNTY. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW
MUCH ENHANCEMENT OAHU WILL SEE...WITH THE OUTLIER GFS SOLUTION
SHOWING MORE OF A NORTHWARD PUSH TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE THAN THE
OTHER MODELS. KAUAI LOOKS TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE DEEP MOISTURE
TO HAVE MANY ISSUES. THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THESE SOMEWHAT SUBTLE FEATURES THAT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH YET...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THINGS.

DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS S AGAIN STARTING THU...BRINGING A
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH JUST TO THE N OF THE ISLANDS AND
HELPING TO ENHANCE ANY PATCHES OF TRADE WIND CUMULUS THAT ARE
RIDING BY. TYPICALLY THESE PATTERNS YIELD LOTS OF SUNSHINE
ESPECIALLY FOR LEEWARD SECTIONS...BUT WHEN SHOWERS BLOW THROUGH
THEY CAN COME DOWN HARD FOR A FEW MINUTES BEFORE THE SUN COMES
BACK OUT AGAIN. THE WEATHER WILL PROBABLY REMAIN A LITTLE MORE
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY DURING THIS PERIOD FOR WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...
ALONG WITH CLOUDY...SHOWERY AFTERNOONS OVER THE KONA SLOPES.

WILL BE MAKING SOME GRID ADJUSTMENTS TODAY TO REFLECT THESE IDEAS
IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION REMAINS POSTED OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. THIS AIRMET
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED DEPENDING ON AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THAT IS EXPECTED OVER THE BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE REMAINS OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
DUE TO THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THESE ISLANDS. ANTICIPATE THESE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.

INSTABILITY TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF MAUI...MOLOKAI AND OAHU
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH COULD SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WATERS IN THAT AREA. DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE BIG ISLAND
COULD ALSO SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE...PREDOMINANTLY
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS...WITH ISOLATED IFR
CONDITIONS FOUND OVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH PASSING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH FAR TO THE NW OF THE
ISLANDS AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE BIG ISLAND WILL KEEP
WINDS NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ LEVELS IN SOME AREAS AROUND
KAUAI TODAY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD WHICH WILL LEAD TO
STRONGER TRADES FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...STRONGEST NEAR
KAUAI. THE WINDS TODAY IN COMBINATION WITH A QUICK PULSE OF NW
SWELL WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST WATERS. THE SCA WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AND EXTENDED AS THE WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT HST TONIGHT FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU
KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-
WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR BIG
ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT HST TONIGHT FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI
CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.


&&

$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE...R BALLARD
AVIATION...M BALLARD










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