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000
FXHW60 PHFO 200217 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
359 PM HST TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS
FAVORING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS
TO REACH LEEWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS
COVERING WINDWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS... BRINGING SOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW LOW CLOUD TOPS
ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN NORMAL... REACHING UP TO 10 THOUSAND FEET.
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN PASSING CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST NORTH
OF THE STATE... BRINGING SOME ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTAIN BRIEF DOWNPOURS. THE HIGHER CLOUD TOPS
WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO REACH LEEWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE PULLING NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SHOWER
FREE AS DRIER THAN NORMAL AIR PASSES OVER THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A PUSH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ENVELOPS THE ISLANDS
FROM THE EAST WITH THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND SEEING THE INITIAL
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. THE ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL WASH INTO THE
WINDWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BRINGING INCREASED WINDWARD SHOWERS. FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND... EXPECT DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AS THE MOISTURE
MOVES WEST... AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE MOVES IN. MODERATE TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAR
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.

THE TROPICS REMAIN ACTIVE IN THE EAST PACIFIC...BUT LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND GLOBAL MODELS
KEEP ANY TROPICAL SYSTEMS FAR FROM HAWAII THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS...MODERATE TRADE
WINDS WILL DELIVER PASSING SHRA THAT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR
VIS/CIG ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES...COASTS AND WATERS...AS WELL AS
WINDWARD TERMINALS PHLI AND PHTO. NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT...WITH THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AIRMET SIERRA ISSUANCE FOR
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES IF CLOUDS AND SHRA
THICKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS AROUND MAUI AND BIG ISLAND WILL REMAIN
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK.

SOUTH SWELL WILL MAINTAIN AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK. A DIMINISHING SSW SWELL WILL BE
REPLACED BY ANOTHER PULSE FROM THE SSW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SEE THE COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
/SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
BIRCHARD...AVIATION









000
FXHW60 PHFO 200217 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
359 PM HST TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS
FAVORING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS
TO REACH LEEWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS
COVERING WINDWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS... BRINGING SOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW LOW CLOUD TOPS
ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN NORMAL... REACHING UP TO 10 THOUSAND FEET.
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN PASSING CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST NORTH
OF THE STATE... BRINGING SOME ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTAIN BRIEF DOWNPOURS. THE HIGHER CLOUD TOPS
WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO REACH LEEWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE PULLING NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SHOWER
FREE AS DRIER THAN NORMAL AIR PASSES OVER THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A PUSH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ENVELOPS THE ISLANDS
FROM THE EAST WITH THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND SEEING THE INITIAL
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. THE ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL WASH INTO THE
WINDWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BRINGING INCREASED WINDWARD SHOWERS. FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND... EXPECT DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AS THE MOISTURE
MOVES WEST... AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE MOVES IN. MODERATE TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAR
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.

THE TROPICS REMAIN ACTIVE IN THE EAST PACIFIC...BUT LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND GLOBAL MODELS
KEEP ANY TROPICAL SYSTEMS FAR FROM HAWAII THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS...MODERATE TRADE
WINDS WILL DELIVER PASSING SHRA THAT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR
VIS/CIG ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES...COASTS AND WATERS...AS WELL AS
WINDWARD TERMINALS PHLI AND PHTO. NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT...WITH THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AIRMET SIERRA ISSUANCE FOR
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES IF CLOUDS AND SHRA
THICKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS AROUND MAUI AND BIG ISLAND WILL REMAIN
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK.

SOUTH SWELL WILL MAINTAIN AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK. A DIMINISHING SSW SWELL WILL BE
REPLACED BY ANOTHER PULSE FROM THE SSW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SEE THE COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
/SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
BIRCHARD...AVIATION








000
FXHW60 PHFO 200159
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
359 PM HST TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS
FAVORING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS
TO REACH LEEWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS
COVERING WINDWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS... BRINGING SOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW LOW CLOUD TOPS
ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN NORMAL... REACHING UP TO 10 THOUSAND FEET.
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN PASSING CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST NORTH
OF THE STATE... BRINGING SOME ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTAIN BRIEF DOWNPOURS. THE HIGHER CLOUD TOPS
WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO REACH LEEWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE PULLING NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SHOWER
FREE AS DRIER THAN NORMAL AIR PASSES OVER THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...
THURSDAY NIGHT A PUSH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ENVELOPS THE ISLANDS
FROM THE EAST WITH THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND SEEING THE INITIAL
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. THE ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL WASH INTO THE
WINDWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BRINGING INCREASED WINDWARD SHOWERS. FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND... EXPECT DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AS THE MOISTURE
MOVES WEST... AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE MOVES IN. MODERATE TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAR
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.

THE TROPICS REMAIN ACTIVE IN THE EAST PACIFIC...BUT LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND GLOBAL MODELS
KEEP ANY TROPICAL SYSTEMS FAR FROM HAWAII THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS...MODERATE TRADE
WINDS WILL DELIVER PASSING SHRA THAT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR
VIS/CIG ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES...COASTS AND WATERS...AS WELL AS
WINDWARD TERMINALS PHLI AND PHTO. NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT...WITH THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AIRMET SIERRA ISSUANCE FOR
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES IF CLOUDS AND SHRA
THICKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS AROUND MAUI AND BIG ISLAND WILL REMAIN
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK.

SOUTH SWELL WILL MAINTAIN AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK. A DIMINISHING SSW SWELL WILL BE
REPLACED BY ANOTHER PULSE FROM THE SSW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SEE THE COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
/SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
BIRCHARD...AVIATION





000
FXHW60 PHFO 200159
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
359 PM HST TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS
FAVORING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS
TO REACH LEEWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS
COVERING WINDWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS... BRINGING SOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW LOW CLOUD TOPS
ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN NORMAL... REACHING UP TO 10 THOUSAND FEET.
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN PASSING CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST NORTH
OF THE STATE... BRINGING SOME ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTAIN BRIEF DOWNPOURS. THE HIGHER CLOUD TOPS
WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO REACH LEEWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE PULLING NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SHOWER
FREE AS DRIER THAN NORMAL AIR PASSES OVER THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...
THURSDAY NIGHT A PUSH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ENVELOPS THE ISLANDS
FROM THE EAST WITH THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND SEEING THE INITIAL
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. THE ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL WASH INTO THE
WINDWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BRINGING INCREASED WINDWARD SHOWERS. FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND... EXPECT DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AS THE MOISTURE
MOVES WEST... AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE MOVES IN. MODERATE TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAR
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.

THE TROPICS REMAIN ACTIVE IN THE EAST PACIFIC...BUT LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND GLOBAL MODELS
KEEP ANY TROPICAL SYSTEMS FAR FROM HAWAII THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS...MODERATE TRADE
WINDS WILL DELIVER PASSING SHRA THAT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR
VIS/CIG ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES...COASTS AND WATERS...AS WELL AS
WINDWARD TERMINALS PHLI AND PHTO. NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT...WITH THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AIRMET SIERRA ISSUANCE FOR
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES IF CLOUDS AND SHRA
THICKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS AROUND MAUI AND BIG ISLAND WILL REMAIN
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK.

SOUTH SWELL WILL MAINTAIN AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK. A DIMINISHING SSW SWELL WILL BE
REPLACED BY ANOTHER PULSE FROM THE SSW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SEE THE COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
/SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
BIRCHARD...AVIATION






000
FXHW60 PHFO 192124 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
943 AM HST TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS
FAVORING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS
TO REACH LEEWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL. A DRIER TRADE WIND PATTERN IS
ON TAP FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS COVERING
WINDWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS... BRINGING SOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS. WHILE ON THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND... SKIES ARE
CLEARER THAN NORMAL. RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW LOW CLOUD TOPS ARE A BIT
HIGHER THAN NORMAL... REACHING UP TO 10 THOUSAND FEET. WINDWARD
AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL SEE PASSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE STATE...
BRINGING SOME ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTAIN BRIEF DOWNPOURS. THE HIGHER CLOUD TOPS WILL ALLOW SOME
SHOWERS TO REACH LEEWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE PULLING NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY...KEEPING WINDWARD AREAS UNDER PASSING SHOWERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK... EXPECT
DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND A STABLE
ATMOSPHERE MOVES IN. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.

THE TROPICS REMAIN ACTIVE IN THE EAST PACIFIC...BUT LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND GLOBAL MODELS
KEEP ANY TROPICAL SYSTEMS FAR FROM HAWAII THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WITH BRIEF MVFR VIS/CIG POSSIBLE AT WINDWARD TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS PHNY...WHERE MVFR CIG WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON TODAY. NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...
AS AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION HAS ENDED. OTHERWISE...
PASSING SHRA WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR VIS/CIG IN SHRA TO WINDWARD
SLOPES...COASTS AND WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ISOL IFR VIS IN
+SHRA POSSIBLE OVER LEEWARD BIG ISLAND SLOPES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS AROUND MAUI AND BIG ISLAND WILL REMAIN
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK.

SOUTH SWELL WILL MAINTAIN AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE CURRENT SSW SWELL WILL KEEP
DECREASING TODAY. ANOTHER PULSE FROM THE SSW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND
FORECAST FOR OAHU /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
BIRCHARD...AVIATION






000
FXHW60 PHFO 191943
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
943 AM HST TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS
FAVORING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS
TO REACH LEEWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL. A DRIER TRADE WIND PATTERN IS
ON TAP FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS COVERING
WINDWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS... BRINGING SOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS. WHILE ON THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND... SKIES ARE
CLEARER THAN NORMAL. RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW LOW CLOUD TOPS ARE A BIT
HIGHER THAN NORMAL... REACHING UP TO 10 THOUSAND FEET. WINDWARD
AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL SEE PASSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE STATE... BRINGING
SOME ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTAIN
BRIEF DOWNPOURS. THE HIGHER CLOUD TOPS WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO
REACH LEEWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE PULLING NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY...KEEPING WINDWARD AREAS UNDER PASSING SHOWERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK... EXPECT
DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND A STABLE
ATMOSPHERE MOVES IN. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.

THE TROPICS REMAIN ACTIVE IN THE EAST PACIFIC...BUT LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND GLOBAL MODELS
KEEP ANY TROPICAL SYSTEMS FAR FROM HAWAII THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...



&&

.MARINE...
THE TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS AROUND MAUI AND BIG ISLAND WILL REMAIN
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK.

SOUTH SWELL WILL MAINTAIN AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE CURRENT SSW SWELL WILL KEEP
DECREASING TODAY. ANOTHER PULSE FROM THE SSW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND
FORECAST FOR OAHU /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
BIRCHARD...AVIATION








000
FXHW60 PHFO 191943
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
943 AM HST TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS
FAVORING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS
TO REACH LEEWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL. A DRIER TRADE WIND PATTERN IS
ON TAP FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS COVERING
WINDWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS... BRINGING SOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS. WHILE ON THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND... SKIES ARE
CLEARER THAN NORMAL. RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW LOW CLOUD TOPS ARE A BIT
HIGHER THAN NORMAL... REACHING UP TO 10 THOUSAND FEET. WINDWARD
AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL SEE PASSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE STATE... BRINGING
SOME ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTAIN
BRIEF DOWNPOURS. THE HIGHER CLOUD TOPS WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO
REACH LEEWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE PULLING NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY...KEEPING WINDWARD AREAS UNDER PASSING SHOWERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK... EXPECT
DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND A STABLE
ATMOSPHERE MOVES IN. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.

THE TROPICS REMAIN ACTIVE IN THE EAST PACIFIC...BUT LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND GLOBAL MODELS
KEEP ANY TROPICAL SYSTEMS FAR FROM HAWAII THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...



&&

.MARINE...
THE TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS AROUND MAUI AND BIG ISLAND WILL REMAIN
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK.

SOUTH SWELL WILL MAINTAIN AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE CURRENT SSW SWELL WILL KEEP
DECREASING TODAY. ANOTHER PULSE FROM THE SSW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND
FORECAST FOR OAHU /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
BIRCHARD...AVIATION







000
FXHW60 PHFO 191330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH RAINFALL FAVORING
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL REACH LEEWARD
LOCATIONS AT TIMES. THE WETTER TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME DRYER ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHILE THE BIG ISLAND COULD STILL EXPERIENCE ENHANCED
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IMAGES SHOW A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS UPSTREAM OF THE
ALOHA STATE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS...BRINGING PERIODS
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER MOST WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS.
THE GENERAL MOTION OF THESE SHOWERS IS FROM E TO W AS THEY FOLLOW
THE TRADES. IN GENERAL...EXPECT A TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD/MAUKA AREAS EACH DAY. RAINFALL IN GENERAL
SHOULD REMAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE...BUT LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE AIR MASS OVER THE ISLANDS REMAINS A
LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LVL LOW
REACHING THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM THE N. SOME OF THE LARGER SHOWERS
WILL REACH LEEWARD LOCATIONS AT TIMES.

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY MIGRATING NNE AND AWAY FROM
THE ISLANDS STARTING TONIGHT AND THROUGH WED. THIS WILL BRING
DIMINISHING SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS. THE BIG ISLAND...HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE MORE
ACTIVE PERIODS OF SHOWERS ON THE LATE WED AND THU TIMEFRAME AS
ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND FROM E
TO W. THE DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE WHOLE ISLAND
CHAIN STARTING FRI.

THE TROPICS REMAIN ACTIVE IN THE E PACIFIC...BUT LATEST FORECASTS
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND GLOBAL MODELS KEEP ANY
TROPICAL SYSTEMS FAR FROM HAWAII THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THIS
MORNING WILL RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL COVERAGE OF TRADE
SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS...WITH THE LARGER
SHOWERS SPILLING OVER INTO SOME LEEWARD AREAS. SHORT PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...WITH PHTO AND PHLI THE TERMINALS
MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
IS IN EFFECT FOR WINDWARD SECTIONS OF ALL ISLANDS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS LEEWARD SECTIONS...INCLUDING THE REMAINING
TERMINALS.

TRADE SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING STATEWIDE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS AROUND MAUI AND BIG ISLAND ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NEAR BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

PULSES OF SWELL WILL MAINTAIN AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE SURF ALONG
SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE CURRENT SSW
SWELL WILL KEEP DECREASING TODAY. ANOTHER PULSE FROM THE SSW IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE
SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JACOBSON













000
FXHW60 PHFO 190630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. SHOWER COVERAGE
WILL BE MORE ACTIVE TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE...AND WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING LEEWARD LOCATIONS AT
TIMES. A DRIER TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE BIG ISLAND
COULD EXPERIENCE ENHANCED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE KONA-KAILUA AREA HAVE PROMPTED A FLOOD
ADVISORY OVER THE LEEWARD BIG ISLAND FROM KONA VILLAGE RESORT TO
CAPTAIN COOK. RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW AROUND ONE AND A HALF...AND TWO
INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN FALLING OVER THAT AREA DURING THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN DISSIPATING
LATER THIS EVENING AS LAND BREEZES ESTABLISH.

MEANWHILE...THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A WELL-ESTABLISHED TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN WITH MODERATE TRADES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
FAVOR WINDWARD/MOUNTAIN AREAS EACH DAY WITH RAINFALL REMAINING
LIGHT TO MODERATE.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS COULD
STILL EXPERIENCE SOME ENHANCED LOCALIZED SHOWERS DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW REACHING THE ALOHA STATE FROM THE
N...BRINGING A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY. IN GENERAL...THIS WILL
HELP IN INCREASING OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...BUT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING MODERATE. SOME OF THE LARGER SHOWERS WILL
REACH LEEWARD LOCATIONS AT TIMES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TUE...THEN IT BEGINS MIGRATING NNE LATE TUE THROUGH WED. FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NEXT WEEK...EXPECT DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPS.
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE IS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS
MOVING ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND FROM E TO W ON THU AS THE MODERATE
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD THEN
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WHOLE ISLAND CHAIN STARTING FRI.

THE TROPICS REMAIN ACTIVE IN THE E PACIFIC...BUT LATEST FORECASTS
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND GLOBAL MODELS KEEP ANY
TROPICAL SYSTEMS FAR FROM HAWAII THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL COVERAGE OF TRADE
SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS...WITH THE LARGER
SHOWERS SPILLING OVER INTO SOME LEEWARD AREAS. SHORT PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH PHTO AND PHLI THE TERMINALS
MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS SOME ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS LEEWARD SECTIONS...INCLUDING THE
REMAINING TERMINALS.

TRADE SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING STATEWIDE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS AROUND MAUI AND BIG ISLAND ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NEAR BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

PULSES OF SWELL WILL MAINTAIN AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE SURF ALONG
SOUTH FACING SHORES THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT SSW SWELL WILL DECLINE
TODAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER PULSE FROM THE SSW IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL
AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JACOBSON











000
FXHW60 PHFO 190630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. SHOWER COVERAGE
WILL BE MORE ACTIVE TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE...AND WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING LEEWARD LOCATIONS AT
TIMES. A DRIER TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE BIG ISLAND
COULD EXPERIENCE ENHANCED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE KONA-KAILUA AREA HAVE PROMPTED A FLOOD
ADVISORY OVER THE LEEWARD BIG ISLAND FROM KONA VILLAGE RESORT TO
CAPTAIN COOK. RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW AROUND ONE AND A HALF...AND TWO
INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN FALLING OVER THAT AREA DURING THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN DISSIPATING
LATER THIS EVENING AS LAND BREEZES ESTABLISH.

MEANWHILE...THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A WELL-ESTABLISHED TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN WITH MODERATE TRADES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
FAVOR WINDWARD/MOUNTAIN AREAS EACH DAY WITH RAINFALL REMAINING
LIGHT TO MODERATE.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS COULD
STILL EXPERIENCE SOME ENHANCED LOCALIZED SHOWERS DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW REACHING THE ALOHA STATE FROM THE
N...BRINGING A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY. IN GENERAL...THIS WILL
HELP IN INCREASING OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...BUT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING MODERATE. SOME OF THE LARGER SHOWERS WILL
REACH LEEWARD LOCATIONS AT TIMES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TUE...THEN IT BEGINS MIGRATING NNE LATE TUE THROUGH WED. FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NEXT WEEK...EXPECT DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPS.
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE IS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS
MOVING ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND FROM E TO W ON THU AS THE MODERATE
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD THEN
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WHOLE ISLAND CHAIN STARTING FRI.

THE TROPICS REMAIN ACTIVE IN THE E PACIFIC...BUT LATEST FORECASTS
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND GLOBAL MODELS KEEP ANY
TROPICAL SYSTEMS FAR FROM HAWAII THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL COVERAGE OF TRADE
SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS...WITH THE LARGER
SHOWERS SPILLING OVER INTO SOME LEEWARD AREAS. SHORT PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH PHTO AND PHLI THE TERMINALS
MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS SOME ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS LEEWARD SECTIONS...INCLUDING THE
REMAINING TERMINALS.

TRADE SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING STATEWIDE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS AROUND MAUI AND BIG ISLAND ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NEAR BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

PULSES OF SWELL WILL MAINTAIN AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE SURF ALONG
SOUTH FACING SHORES THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT SSW SWELL WILL DECLINE
TODAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER PULSE FROM THE SSW IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL
AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JACOBSON












000
FXHW60 PHFO 190159
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
359 PM HST MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS
FAVORING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. WINDWARD SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE.
EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO REACH LEEWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL. A DRIER
TRADE WIND PATTERN IS ON TAP FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MODERATE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW CLOUDS
COVERING WINDWARD AREAS... BRINGING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS.
VISIBLE IMAGERY AND RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW LOW CLOUD TOPS UPSTREAM
OF THE ISLANDS HAVE INCREASED FROM 8 KFT TO 10-12 KFT. WINDWARD
AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LOW DIPS SOUTH OVER THE STATE... BRINGING SOME ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY. CLOUD TOP HEIGHT WILL INCREASE WITH THE ADDED
INSTABILITY...ALLOWING FOR MODERATE RAINFALL AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE. THE HIGHER CLOUD TOPS WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO REACH
LEEWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE PULLING NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY...KEEPING WINDWARD AREAS UNDER PASSING SHOWERS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK... EXPECT
DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND A STABLE
ATMOSPHERE MOVES IN. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.

THE TROPICS REMAIN ACTIVE IN THE EAST PACIFIC...BUT LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND GLOBAL MODELS
KEEP ANY TROPICAL SYSTEMS FAR FROM HAWAII THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z RAOBS AND 23Z-01Z ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED INVERSION
HEIGHTS AND WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WE HAVE NOT
RECEIVED ANY PIREPS OF TURBULENCE SINCE A LIGHT-MODERATE REPORT
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONDITIONS ARE INCREASINGLY LESS
CONDUCIVE. THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED THE AIRMET FOR MODERATE
LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE.

A BAND OF MOISTURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL ENHANCE TRADE WIND
SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS.


&&

.MARINE...
NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...TYPICAL WINDY
WATERS AROUND MAUI AND BIG ISLAND WILL BE NEAR SCA CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

PULSES OF SWELL WILL MAINTAIN AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE SURF ALONG
SOUTH FACING SHORES THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT SSW SWELL WILL DECLINE
TODAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER PULSE FROM THE SSW IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL
AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MORRISON









000
FXHW60 PHFO 190159
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
359 PM HST MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS
FAVORING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. WINDWARD SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE.
EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO REACH LEEWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL. A DRIER
TRADE WIND PATTERN IS ON TAP FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MODERATE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW CLOUDS
COVERING WINDWARD AREAS... BRINGING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS.
VISIBLE IMAGERY AND RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW LOW CLOUD TOPS UPSTREAM
OF THE ISLANDS HAVE INCREASED FROM 8 KFT TO 10-12 KFT. WINDWARD
AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LOW DIPS SOUTH OVER THE STATE... BRINGING SOME ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY. CLOUD TOP HEIGHT WILL INCREASE WITH THE ADDED
INSTABILITY...ALLOWING FOR MODERATE RAINFALL AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE. THE HIGHER CLOUD TOPS WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO REACH
LEEWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE PULLING NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY...KEEPING WINDWARD AREAS UNDER PASSING SHOWERS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK... EXPECT
DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND A STABLE
ATMOSPHERE MOVES IN. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.

THE TROPICS REMAIN ACTIVE IN THE EAST PACIFIC...BUT LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND GLOBAL MODELS
KEEP ANY TROPICAL SYSTEMS FAR FROM HAWAII THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z RAOBS AND 23Z-01Z ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED INVERSION
HEIGHTS AND WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WE HAVE NOT
RECEIVED ANY PIREPS OF TURBULENCE SINCE A LIGHT-MODERATE REPORT
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONDITIONS ARE INCREASINGLY LESS
CONDUCIVE. THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED THE AIRMET FOR MODERATE
LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE.

A BAND OF MOISTURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL ENHANCE TRADE WIND
SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS.


&&

.MARINE...
NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...TYPICAL WINDY
WATERS AROUND MAUI AND BIG ISLAND WILL BE NEAR SCA CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

PULSES OF SWELL WILL MAINTAIN AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE SURF ALONG
SOUTH FACING SHORES THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT SSW SWELL WILL DECLINE
TODAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER PULSE FROM THE SSW IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL
AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MORRISON








000
FXHW60 PHFO 182003
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1003 AM HST MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS
FAVORING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. WINDWARD SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO REACH LEEWARD LOCATIONS
AS WELL. A DRIER TRADE WIND PATTERN IS ON TAP FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING THIS MORNING WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS
COVERING WINDWARD AREAS... BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. THIS
MORNING/S VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS BUILDING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
UPSTREAM OF KAUAI AND OAHU. WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS OF THESE
ISLANDS WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS ALL WINDWARD
AREAS AS AN UPPER LOW DIPS SOUTH OVER THE STATE... BRINGING SOME
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. CLOUD TOP HEIGHT WILL INCREASE WITH THE
ADDED INSTABILITY...ALLOWING FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL AND AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER COVERAGE. THE HIGHER CLOUD TOPS WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS
TO REACH LEEWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE PULLING NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY...KEEPING WINDWARD AREAS UNDER PASSING SHOWERS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK... EXPECT
DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND A STABLE
ATMOSPHERE MOVES IN. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.

THE TROPICS REMAIN ACTIVE IN THE EAST PACIFIC...BUT LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND GLOBAL MODELS
KEEP ANY TROPICAL SYSTEMS FAR FROM HAWAII THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY PIREPS OF TURBULENCE SINCE A LIGHT-MODERATE
REPORT YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE DECREASED SINCE THEN...AND
INVERSIONS HAVE ALSO WEAKENED AND LIFTED. 17Z-18Z AMDAR SOUNDINGS
OUT OF HNL/OGG SHOW UP TO 20 KNOTS OF WIND BELOW THE INVERSION. THIS
WOULD ARGUE FOR LIGHT TURBULENCE...AND WE MAY BE ABLE TO DROP THE
AIRMET FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE. WILL WAIT UNTIL NOON TO SEE HOW
CONDITIONS EVOLVE DURING THE MORNING WITH INCREASED MIXING.

A BAND OF MOISTURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL ENHANCE TRADE WIND
SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...TYPICAL WINDY
WATERS AROUND MAUI AND BIG ISLAND WILL BE NEAR SCA CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

PULSES OF SWELL WILL MAINTAIN AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE SURF ALONG
SOUTH FACING SHORES THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT SSW SWELL WILL DECLINE
TODAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER PULSE FROM THE SSW IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL
AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
BRAVENDER...AVIATION






000
FXHW60 PHFO 182003
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1003 AM HST MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS
FAVORING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. WINDWARD SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO REACH LEEWARD LOCATIONS
AS WELL. A DRIER TRADE WIND PATTERN IS ON TAP FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING THIS MORNING WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS
COVERING WINDWARD AREAS... BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. THIS
MORNING/S VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS BUILDING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
UPSTREAM OF KAUAI AND OAHU. WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS OF THESE
ISLANDS WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS ALL WINDWARD
AREAS AS AN UPPER LOW DIPS SOUTH OVER THE STATE... BRINGING SOME
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. CLOUD TOP HEIGHT WILL INCREASE WITH THE
ADDED INSTABILITY...ALLOWING FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL AND AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER COVERAGE. THE HIGHER CLOUD TOPS WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS
TO REACH LEEWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE PULLING NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY...KEEPING WINDWARD AREAS UNDER PASSING SHOWERS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK... EXPECT
DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND A STABLE
ATMOSPHERE MOVES IN. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.

THE TROPICS REMAIN ACTIVE IN THE EAST PACIFIC...BUT LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND GLOBAL MODELS
KEEP ANY TROPICAL SYSTEMS FAR FROM HAWAII THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY PIREPS OF TURBULENCE SINCE A LIGHT-MODERATE
REPORT YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE DECREASED SINCE THEN...AND
INVERSIONS HAVE ALSO WEAKENED AND LIFTED. 17Z-18Z AMDAR SOUNDINGS
OUT OF HNL/OGG SHOW UP TO 20 KNOTS OF WIND BELOW THE INVERSION. THIS
WOULD ARGUE FOR LIGHT TURBULENCE...AND WE MAY BE ABLE TO DROP THE
AIRMET FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE. WILL WAIT UNTIL NOON TO SEE HOW
CONDITIONS EVOLVE DURING THE MORNING WITH INCREASED MIXING.

A BAND OF MOISTURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL ENHANCE TRADE WIND
SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...TYPICAL WINDY
WATERS AROUND MAUI AND BIG ISLAND WILL BE NEAR SCA CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

PULSES OF SWELL WILL MAINTAIN AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE SURF ALONG
SOUTH FACING SHORES THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT SSW SWELL WILL DECLINE
TODAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER PULSE FROM THE SSW IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL
AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
BRAVENDER...AVIATION







000
FXHW60 PHFO 181353
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
353 AM HST MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE STATE THROUGHOUT THIS
WEEK. A MORE ACTIVE SHOWER PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE. SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS
COULD PERIODICALLY SPREAD LEEWARD AT TIMES. A DRIER TRADE WIND
PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE STATE THROUGHOUT THIS
WEEK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS DIGGING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS FEATURE MOVING NEAR KAUAI LATER TODAY
AND LINGERING AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN
THE INVERSION...CAUSING THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE.
SOUNDINGS FROM THIS MORNING ALREADY SHOW AN ELEVATED INVERSION
HEIGHT OF 9-10 KFT OVER THE STATE. ANY POCKETS OF MOISTURE MOVING
ALONG THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ACTIVE...LEADING
TO AN ENHANCEMENT IN MAINLY WINDWARD RAINFALL AND ALLOWING SOME
SHOWERS TO BE PERIODICALLY CARRIED TO LEEWARD AREAS. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL INCREASE
STABILITY OVER THE ISLANDS AND RESULT IN LESS TRADE WIND SHOWER
ENHANCEMENT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING AN AREA ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
BIG ISLAND FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS
WITH TROPICAL STORM KARINA APPROACHING FROM THE EAST. KARINA IS
EXPECTED TO VERY SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BEFORE CURVING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE THAT THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL NOT BE
IMPACTED BY KARINA.

WITH THIS IN MIND...MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
SHOWER PATTERN REMAIN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE DEEP TROPICS FOR ANY CHANGES THAT WOULD
ALTER THE CURRENT THINKING.


&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOST AREAS BUT BRIEF MVFR CIG/VIS IN
PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER WINDWARD SLOPES...COASTS AND
WATERS. A 9-10 KFT INVERSION ACTING AS A CAP ON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURB TO THE S AND W OF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES /SCA/ ARE IN EFFECT. TYPICAL WINDY
WATERS AROUND MAUI AND BIG ISLAND COULD BE NEAR SCA CONDITIONS
THROUGOUT THE WEEK.

PULSES OF SWELL WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL DECLINE
TODAY AND TUESDAY. A SIMILAR PULSE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE
SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BEDAL






000
FXHW60 PHFO 181353
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
353 AM HST MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE STATE THROUGHOUT THIS
WEEK. A MORE ACTIVE SHOWER PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE. SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS
COULD PERIODICALLY SPREAD LEEWARD AT TIMES. A DRIER TRADE WIND
PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE STATE THROUGHOUT THIS
WEEK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS DIGGING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS FEATURE MOVING NEAR KAUAI LATER TODAY
AND LINGERING AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN
THE INVERSION...CAUSING THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE.
SOUNDINGS FROM THIS MORNING ALREADY SHOW AN ELEVATED INVERSION
HEIGHT OF 9-10 KFT OVER THE STATE. ANY POCKETS OF MOISTURE MOVING
ALONG THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ACTIVE...LEADING
TO AN ENHANCEMENT IN MAINLY WINDWARD RAINFALL AND ALLOWING SOME
SHOWERS TO BE PERIODICALLY CARRIED TO LEEWARD AREAS. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL INCREASE
STABILITY OVER THE ISLANDS AND RESULT IN LESS TRADE WIND SHOWER
ENHANCEMENT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING AN AREA ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
BIG ISLAND FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS
WITH TROPICAL STORM KARINA APPROACHING FROM THE EAST. KARINA IS
EXPECTED TO VERY SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BEFORE CURVING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE THAT THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL NOT BE
IMPACTED BY KARINA.

WITH THIS IN MIND...MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
SHOWER PATTERN REMAIN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE DEEP TROPICS FOR ANY CHANGES THAT WOULD
ALTER THE CURRENT THINKING.


&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOST AREAS BUT BRIEF MVFR CIG/VIS IN
PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER WINDWARD SLOPES...COASTS AND
WATERS. A 9-10 KFT INVERSION ACTING AS A CAP ON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURB TO THE S AND W OF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES /SCA/ ARE IN EFFECT. TYPICAL WINDY
WATERS AROUND MAUI AND BIG ISLAND COULD BE NEAR SCA CONDITIONS
THROUGOUT THE WEEK.

PULSES OF SWELL WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL DECLINE
TODAY AND TUESDAY. A SIMILAR PULSE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE
SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BEDAL







000
FXHW60 PHFO 180630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SUN AUG 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT DROP IN SPEED ON MONDAY. A MORE ACTIVE SHOWER PATTERN IS IN
STORE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES...
THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD PERIODICALLY SPREAD LEEWARD AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STABLE AND LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WIND FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THIS
EVENING. A SURFACE RIDGE FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS IS DRIVING THE
TRADES...AND WEAKENING RIDGING ALOFT IS MAINTAINING STABLE
CONDITIONS...WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN 5000 AND 7000 FEET. THE
TRADE WINDS WILL BLOW IN OCCASIONAL CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT
FOR THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE...BUT PERSISTENT CLOUD CLUSTERS
ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU MAY BRING A BIT MORE SHOWERS TONIGHT.
OVERALL...RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT AND FOCUSED OVER THE WINDWARD SIDES.

A MORE ACTIVE SHOWER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ALONG WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN THE TRADE WINDS. A DEVELOPING MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CAN BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF KAUAI. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
FEATURE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY THEN
DRIFTING OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MID TO UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE
INVERSION...CAUSING THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE.
ANY POCKETS OF MOISTURE MOVING ALONG THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
LIKELY BECOME MORE ACTIVE...LEADING TO AN ENHANCEMENT IN MAINLY
WINDWARD RAINFALL AND ALLOWING SOME SHOWERS TO BE PERIODICALLY
CARRIED TO LEEWARD AREAS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING AN AREA ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
BIG ISLAND FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF DECAY TODAY...AND
FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO SUGGEST DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS FEATURE INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL STORM KARINA
APPROACHING FROM THE EAST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS ALWAYS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AND MOVEMENT...CONFIDENCE IS
RISING THAT THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY
THESE SYSTEMS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AND LIKELY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WITH THIS IN MIND...MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME SHOWER PATTERN REMAIN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE DEEP TROPICS FOR ANY CHANGES THAT
WOULD ALTER THE CURRENT THINKING.


&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOST AREAS BUT BRIEF MVFR CIG/VIS IN
PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER WINDWARD SLOPES...COASTS AND
WATERS. AIRMASS IS RELATIVELY STABLE...WITH A A 5-7 KFT INVERSION IS
ACTING AS A CAP ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW
LEVEL TURB TO THE S AND W OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED
THROUGH TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.


&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH TONIGHT. A
SLIGHT DROP IN THE TRADES IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...LEAVING BORDER
LINE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.

PULSES OF SWELL WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES THIS WEEK...WHILE THE SMALL...OUT OF SEASON NORTH-NORTHWEST
SWELL FADES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CURRENT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL PRODUCE SURF JUST BELOW THE SOUTH SHORE
ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY DECLINE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A SIMILAR PULSE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND
WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BEDAL








000
FXHW60 PHFO 180130
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SUN AUG 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT DROP IN SPEED TOMORROW. A MORE ACTIVE SHOWER PATTERN IS
IN STORE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES...
THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD PERIODICALLY SPREAD LEEWARD AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STABLE AND LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WIND FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RIDGE FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS IS DRIVING THE
TRADES...AND WEAKENING RIDGING ALOFT IS MAINTAINING STABLE
CONDITIONS...WITH AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS AND RECENT AMDAR DATA SHOWING
AN INVERSION BETWEEN 4600 AND 6500 FT. A SMALL BUT PERSISTENT
CLUSTER OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HUNG OVER OAHU LONGER THAN EXPECTED
TODAY...BUT THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY CLEARING AND TAKING AIM AT
KAUAI FOR THE EVENING.

A MORE ACTIVE SHOWER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ALONG WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN THE TRADE WINDS. A DEVELOPING MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CAN BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF KAUAI THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THIS FEATURE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY THEN DRIFTING OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MID
TO UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN
THE INVERSION...CAUSING THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE.
ANY POCKETS OF MOISTURE MOVING ALONG THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY
BECOME MORE ACTIVE...LEADING TO AN ENHANCEMENT IN MAINLY WINDWARD
RAINFALL AND ALLOWING SOME SHOWERS TO BE PERIODICALLY CARRIED TO
LEEWARD AREAS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING AN AREA ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
BIG ISLAND FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF DECAY TODAY...AND
FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO SUGGEST DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS FEATURE INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL STORM KARINA
APPROACHING FROM THE EAST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS ALWAYS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AND MOVEMENT...CONFIDENCE IS
RISING THAT THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY
THESE SYSTEMS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AND LIKELY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
WITH THIS IN MIND...MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
SHOWER PATTERN REMAIN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE DEEP TROPICS FOR ANY CHANGES THAT WOULD ALTER
THE CURRENT THINKING.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH CLOUD TOPS CAPPED AT
7-8 KFT. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS...ISOL
MVFR CIG/VIS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER WINDWARD SLOPES...COASTS AND
WATERS...ASSOCIATED WITH BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS. AIRMET TANGO
REMAINS FOR LOW LEVEL TURB TO THE S AND W OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH TONIGHT. A
SLIGHT DROP IN THE TRADES IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...LEAVING BORDER
LINE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.

PULSES OF SWELL WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES THIS WEEK...WHILE THE SMALL...OUT OF SEASON NORTH-NORTHWEST
SWELL FADES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CURRENT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL PRODUCE SURF JUST BELOW THE SOUTH SHORE
ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY DECLINE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A SIMILAR PULSE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND
WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...MORRISON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 180130
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SUN AUG 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT DROP IN SPEED TOMORROW. A MORE ACTIVE SHOWER PATTERN IS
IN STORE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES...
THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD PERIODICALLY SPREAD LEEWARD AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STABLE AND LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WIND FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RIDGE FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS IS DRIVING THE
TRADES...AND WEAKENING RIDGING ALOFT IS MAINTAINING STABLE
CONDITIONS...WITH AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS AND RECENT AMDAR DATA SHOWING
AN INVERSION BETWEEN 4600 AND 6500 FT. A SMALL BUT PERSISTENT
CLUSTER OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HUNG OVER OAHU LONGER THAN EXPECTED
TODAY...BUT THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY CLEARING AND TAKING AIM AT
KAUAI FOR THE EVENING.

A MORE ACTIVE SHOWER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ALONG WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN THE TRADE WINDS. A DEVELOPING MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CAN BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF KAUAI THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THIS FEATURE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY THEN DRIFTING OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MID
TO UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN
THE INVERSION...CAUSING THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE.
ANY POCKETS OF MOISTURE MOVING ALONG THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY
BECOME MORE ACTIVE...LEADING TO AN ENHANCEMENT IN MAINLY WINDWARD
RAINFALL AND ALLOWING SOME SHOWERS TO BE PERIODICALLY CARRIED TO
LEEWARD AREAS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING AN AREA ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
BIG ISLAND FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF DECAY TODAY...AND
FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO SUGGEST DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS FEATURE INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL STORM KARINA
APPROACHING FROM THE EAST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS ALWAYS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AND MOVEMENT...CONFIDENCE IS
RISING THAT THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY
THESE SYSTEMS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AND LIKELY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
WITH THIS IN MIND...MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
SHOWER PATTERN REMAIN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE DEEP TROPICS FOR ANY CHANGES THAT WOULD ALTER
THE CURRENT THINKING.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH CLOUD TOPS CAPPED AT
7-8 KFT. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS...ISOL
MVFR CIG/VIS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER WINDWARD SLOPES...COASTS AND
WATERS...ASSOCIATED WITH BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS. AIRMET TANGO
REMAINS FOR LOW LEVEL TURB TO THE S AND W OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH TONIGHT. A
SLIGHT DROP IN THE TRADES IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...LEAVING BORDER
LINE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.

PULSES OF SWELL WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES THIS WEEK...WHILE THE SMALL...OUT OF SEASON NORTH-NORTHWEST
SWELL FADES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CURRENT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL PRODUCE SURF JUST BELOW THE SOUTH SHORE
ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY DECLINE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A SIMILAR PULSE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND
WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...MORRISON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 171956
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SUN AUG 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL HOLD TODAY THEN DROP SLIGHTLY ON
MONDAY. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL FOCUS CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWERS
OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. A MORE ACTIVE SHOWER PATTERN IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STABLE AND LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY. A
SURFACE RIDGE ABOUT 500 MILES NORTH OF KAUAI IS DRIVING THE
TRADES...WHILE RIDGING ALOFT IS PRODUCING STABLE CONDITIONS.
OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS AND RECENT AMDAR DATA SHOW AN INVERSION BETWEEN
5000 AND 7000 FT WITH SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWER-BEARING CUMULUS
CLOUDS NOTED IN THE NEARBY TRADE WIND FLOW. ONE SUCH AREA IS PASSING
OVER OAHU...WHERE CLOUDS AND MAINLY WINDWARD SHOWERS WERE BOOSTED
FOR THE MORNING TIME FRAME ONLY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MODEST SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO BE LARGELY CONFINED TO WINDWARD SLOPES...WITH AFTERNOON
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE KONA SLOPES.

A MORE ACTIVE SHOWER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN THE TRADE WINDS. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF
THE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY THEN DRIFTING OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE INVERSION...CAUSING THE ATMOSPHERE TO
BECOME SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE. ANY POCKETS OF MOISTURE MOVING ALONG THE
TRADE WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME ENHANCED...LEADING TO AN INCREASE
IN MAINLY WINDWARD RAINFALL AND ALLOWING SOME SHOWERS TO BE
PERIODICALLY CARRIED TO LEEWARD AREAS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT
ANY MENTION OF HEAVY SHOWERS FOR NOW BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...UNCERTAINTY HINGES UPON ANY
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ABOUT 900 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN
HINTING AT DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...BUT THE
MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD
INTERACTION OF THIS FEATURE WITH TROPICAL STORM KARINA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SCENARIO INCREASES THE CHANCES THAT HAWAII
WILL NOT SEE ANY DIRECT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM THROUGH SATURDAY.
THAT SAID...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH...AND THE AREA WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED. WITH THIS IN MIND...MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME SHOWER PATTERN REMAIN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH CLOUD TOPS CAPPED AT 7-8 KFT.
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS...ISOL MVFR
CIG/VIS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER WINDWARD SLOPES...COASTS AND
WATERS...ASSOCIATED WITH BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS. AIRMET TANGO
REMAINS FOR LOW LEVEL TURB TO THE S AND W OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH TONIGHT. A
SLIGHT DROP IN THE TRADES IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...LEAVING BORDER
LINE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.

SMALL TO MODERATE SWELLS FROM AROUND THE COMPASS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH A SERIES OF SOUTHERLY SWELLS PROVIDING THE MOST
CONSISTENT SOURCE OF SWELL THIS WEEK. A BOOST FROM THE SSW WILL
BRIEFLY PUSH SURF TO JUST BELOW THE SOUTH SHORE ADVISORY LEVEL INTO
TONIGHT. A SIMILAR PULSE FROM THE SSW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SEE THE COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR
OAHU /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...MORRISON










000
FXHW60 PHFO 171956
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SUN AUG 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL HOLD TODAY THEN DROP SLIGHTLY ON
MONDAY. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL FOCUS CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWERS
OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. A MORE ACTIVE SHOWER PATTERN IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STABLE AND LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY. A
SURFACE RIDGE ABOUT 500 MILES NORTH OF KAUAI IS DRIVING THE
TRADES...WHILE RIDGING ALOFT IS PRODUCING STABLE CONDITIONS.
OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS AND RECENT AMDAR DATA SHOW AN INVERSION BETWEEN
5000 AND 7000 FT WITH SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWER-BEARING CUMULUS
CLOUDS NOTED IN THE NEARBY TRADE WIND FLOW. ONE SUCH AREA IS PASSING
OVER OAHU...WHERE CLOUDS AND MAINLY WINDWARD SHOWERS WERE BOOSTED
FOR THE MORNING TIME FRAME ONLY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MODEST SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO BE LARGELY CONFINED TO WINDWARD SLOPES...WITH AFTERNOON
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE KONA SLOPES.

A MORE ACTIVE SHOWER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN THE TRADE WINDS. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF
THE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY THEN DRIFTING OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE INVERSION...CAUSING THE ATMOSPHERE TO
BECOME SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE. ANY POCKETS OF MOISTURE MOVING ALONG THE
TRADE WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME ENHANCED...LEADING TO AN INCREASE
IN MAINLY WINDWARD RAINFALL AND ALLOWING SOME SHOWERS TO BE
PERIODICALLY CARRIED TO LEEWARD AREAS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT
ANY MENTION OF HEAVY SHOWERS FOR NOW BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...UNCERTAINTY HINGES UPON ANY
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ABOUT 900 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN
HINTING AT DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...BUT THE
MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD
INTERACTION OF THIS FEATURE WITH TROPICAL STORM KARINA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SCENARIO INCREASES THE CHANCES THAT HAWAII
WILL NOT SEE ANY DIRECT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM THROUGH SATURDAY.
THAT SAID...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH...AND THE AREA WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED. WITH THIS IN MIND...MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME SHOWER PATTERN REMAIN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH CLOUD TOPS CAPPED AT 7-8 KFT.
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS...ISOL MVFR
CIG/VIS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER WINDWARD SLOPES...COASTS AND
WATERS...ASSOCIATED WITH BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS. AIRMET TANGO
REMAINS FOR LOW LEVEL TURB TO THE S AND W OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH TONIGHT. A
SLIGHT DROP IN THE TRADES IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...LEAVING BORDER
LINE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.

SMALL TO MODERATE SWELLS FROM AROUND THE COMPASS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH A SERIES OF SOUTHERLY SWELLS PROVIDING THE MOST
CONSISTENT SOURCE OF SWELL THIS WEEK. A BOOST FROM THE SSW WILL
BRIEFLY PUSH SURF TO JUST BELOW THE SOUTH SHORE ADVISORY LEVEL INTO
TONIGHT. A SIMILAR PULSE FROM THE SSW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SEE THE COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR
OAHU /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...MORRISON











000
FXHW60 PHFO 171330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST SUN AUG 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TRADES EXPECTED
TO DROP A NOTCH MONDAY. STABLE CONDITIONS TODAY WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
LIMITED SHOWERS FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. A MORE ACTIVE
SHOWER PATTERN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A LITTLE UNSTABLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE GENERAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS TODAY WILL CONTINUE LOCALLY BREEZY
TRADE WIND WEATHER...WITH MODEST SHOWERS DUE TO A STABLE ENVIRONMENT
OVERHEAD. HEADING INTO MONDAY...THAT STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED
TO GIVE WAY TO A MORE UNSTABLE SITUATION.

THE MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ISLANDS
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...BUT
DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE PRECISE LOCATION. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORMATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OCCURING NEAR
THE WESTERN ISLANDS. THIS UPPER LOW BRINGS COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...BUT THE MOISTURE FIELDS SHOW NEAR NORMAL. THE FORECAST
REMAINS WITH HIGHER POPS...BUT STILL LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF
HEAVY SHOWERS. HAVE BOOSTED THE QPF FIELDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AS WE EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO DELIVER SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
NORMAL TOTALS. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION.

THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO THE GLOBAL
MODELS POOR HANDLING OF THE TROPICAL SITUATION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE ISLANDS. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO WANT TO DEVELOP A SYSTEM
IN THE CONVECTION NEAR 15N 140W...BUT THIS REMAINS A QUESTION SINCE
ITS BEEN FORECAST THIS DEVELOPMENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS. KARINA REMAINS
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN...WITH A SLOW FORECAST TO THE WEST.
WHERE THESE SYSTEMS END UP WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE ON THE
LOCAL FORECAST.

THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS TRADES IN THE FORECAST...WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS BEING CARRIED IN ON THE TRADE WIND FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS IS SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS BEING
CARRIED NORTHWARD...WHERE SOME OF THE MOISTURE WOULD THEN BE CARRIED
IN ON THE TRADES. IF THE SYSTEMS REMAIN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH IN THE
ITCZ...WE MAY NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT
WEEKEND. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...AND OF COURSE THE SITUATION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOST AREAS BUT BRIEF MVFR CIG/VIS IN
PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER WINDWARD SLOPES...COASTS AND
WATERS. A 6-8 KFT INVERSION WILL ACT AS A CAP ON ANY DAYTIME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURB TO THE S AND
W OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY BEYOND.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
ASCAT PASS AT 0641Z SHOWED WINDS ON THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SIDE OF
THE BIG ISLAND...WITH SOME 25 KT WINDS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND
20 KT ENTERING THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL...THUS ENOUGH SUPPORT TO
MAINTAIN THE SCA TODAY. IF THE SLIGHT DROP EXPECTED WITH THE TRADES
PANS OUT FOR MONDAY...BORDER LINE SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SMALL TO MODERATE SWELLS FROM AROUND THE COMPASS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY. A BOOST FROM THE SSW COULD BRIEFLY PUSH SURF TO JUST BELOW
THE SOUTH SHORE ADVISORY LEVEL ON TODAY. A SIMILAR PULSE FROM THE
SSW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE COLLABORATIVE
NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...BEDAL









000
FXHW60 PHFO 171330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST SUN AUG 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TRADES EXPECTED
TO DROP A NOTCH MONDAY. STABLE CONDITIONS TODAY WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
LIMITED SHOWERS FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. A MORE ACTIVE
SHOWER PATTERN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A LITTLE UNSTABLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE GENERAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS TODAY WILL CONTINUE LOCALLY BREEZY
TRADE WIND WEATHER...WITH MODEST SHOWERS DUE TO A STABLE ENVIRONMENT
OVERHEAD. HEADING INTO MONDAY...THAT STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED
TO GIVE WAY TO A MORE UNSTABLE SITUATION.

THE MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ISLANDS
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...BUT
DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE PRECISE LOCATION. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORMATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OCCURING NEAR
THE WESTERN ISLANDS. THIS UPPER LOW BRINGS COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...BUT THE MOISTURE FIELDS SHOW NEAR NORMAL. THE FORECAST
REMAINS WITH HIGHER POPS...BUT STILL LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF
HEAVY SHOWERS. HAVE BOOSTED THE QPF FIELDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AS WE EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO DELIVER SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
NORMAL TOTALS. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION.

THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO THE GLOBAL
MODELS POOR HANDLING OF THE TROPICAL SITUATION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE ISLANDS. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO WANT TO DEVELOP A SYSTEM
IN THE CONVECTION NEAR 15N 140W...BUT THIS REMAINS A QUESTION SINCE
ITS BEEN FORECAST THIS DEVELOPMENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS. KARINA REMAINS
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN...WITH A SLOW FORECAST TO THE WEST.
WHERE THESE SYSTEMS END UP WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE ON THE
LOCAL FORECAST.

THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS TRADES IN THE FORECAST...WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS BEING CARRIED IN ON THE TRADE WIND FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS IS SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS BEING
CARRIED NORTHWARD...WHERE SOME OF THE MOISTURE WOULD THEN BE CARRIED
IN ON THE TRADES. IF THE SYSTEMS REMAIN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH IN THE
ITCZ...WE MAY NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT
WEEKEND. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...AND OF COURSE THE SITUATION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOST AREAS BUT BRIEF MVFR CIG/VIS IN
PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER WINDWARD SLOPES...COASTS AND
WATERS. A 6-8 KFT INVERSION WILL ACT AS A CAP ON ANY DAYTIME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURB TO THE S AND
W OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY BEYOND.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
ASCAT PASS AT 0641Z SHOWED WINDS ON THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SIDE OF
THE BIG ISLAND...WITH SOME 25 KT WINDS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND
20 KT ENTERING THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL...THUS ENOUGH SUPPORT TO
MAINTAIN THE SCA TODAY. IF THE SLIGHT DROP EXPECTED WITH THE TRADES
PANS OUT FOR MONDAY...BORDER LINE SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SMALL TO MODERATE SWELLS FROM AROUND THE COMPASS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY. A BOOST FROM THE SSW COULD BRIEFLY PUSH SURF TO JUST BELOW
THE SOUTH SHORE ADVISORY LEVEL ON TODAY. A SIMILAR PULSE FROM THE
SSW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE COLLABORATIVE
NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...BEDAL








000
FXHW60 PHFO 170630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SAT AUG 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL FOCUS CLOUDS AND MODEST SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS INTO SUNDAY...WITH WINDWARD BIG ISLAND EXPECTED TO
EXPERIENCE A BIT MORE RAINFALL TONIGHT. TRADE WINDS WILL DROP A
NOTCH ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE
SHOWER PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AT THIS TIME...AND
NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

A STABLE...LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO A SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF KAUAI. SATELLITE SHOWS MORE
LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE BIG ISLAND THIS EVENING...SO EXPECT MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY THERE OVERNIGHT THAN OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF ALL
ISLANDS...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE KONA SLOPES ON THE BIG
ISLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ISLANDS MONDAY/TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD BRING COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB  AND 500 MB. THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN BRINGING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THE LATEST
GFS MODEL RUN AT 00Z IS STARTED TO BACK OFF A BIT. BOTH MODELS AGREE
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...BUT HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER CLOSER
TO NORMAL. SIMILAR TO THE TEMPERATURES...THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS
ALSO SHOWING MORE NORMAL PW VALUES. THIS COULD HELP TO ENHANCE
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...SO HAVE LEFT THE POPS
ELEVATED...AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT ANY HEAVY WORDING FOR NOW.

THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO ANY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE
TROPICS...AND ANY DIRECT IMPACTS ON THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXISTING
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE FAR SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE...BUT ALSO CONTINUE
TO DEPICT CONSIDERABLE VARIATIONS IN THE MOTION AND EVOLUTION OF ANY
SYSTEM THAT MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP. THE SITUATION IS FURTHER
COMPLICATED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR INTERACTION WITH CURRENT EAST
PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM KARINA. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY
CONFIDENCE AS TO THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS...IF ANY...ON ISLAND WEATHER
DURING THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
TRADE WIND WEATHER TO CONTINUE. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS BUT ISOL MVFR CIG/VIS IN
PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER WINDWARD SLOPES...COASTS AND
WATERS. A 6-8 KFT INVERSION WILL ACT AS A CAP ON ANY DAYTIME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURB TO THE S AND
W OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY BEYOND.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT BORDER LINE SCA CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN THE TRADES POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.

SMALL TO MODERATE SWELLS FROM AROUND THE COMPASS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOOST FROM THE SSW COULD BRIEFLY PUSH SURF TO
JUST BELOW THE SOUTH SHORE ADVISORY LEVEL ON SUNDAY. A SIMILAR PULSE
FROM THE SSW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU /SRDHFO/
FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...BEDAL







000
FXHW60 PHFO 170630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SAT AUG 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL FOCUS CLOUDS AND MODEST SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS INTO SUNDAY...WITH WINDWARD BIG ISLAND EXPECTED TO
EXPERIENCE A BIT MORE RAINFALL TONIGHT. TRADE WINDS WILL DROP A
NOTCH ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE
SHOWER PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AT THIS TIME...AND
NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

A STABLE...LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO A SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF KAUAI. SATELLITE SHOWS MORE
LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE BIG ISLAND THIS EVENING...SO EXPECT MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY THERE OVERNIGHT THAN OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF ALL
ISLANDS...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE KONA SLOPES ON THE BIG
ISLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ISLANDS MONDAY/TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD BRING COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB  AND 500 MB. THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN BRINGING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THE LATEST
GFS MODEL RUN AT 00Z IS STARTED TO BACK OFF A BIT. BOTH MODELS AGREE
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...BUT HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER CLOSER
TO NORMAL. SIMILAR TO THE TEMPERATURES...THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS
ALSO SHOWING MORE NORMAL PW VALUES. THIS COULD HELP TO ENHANCE
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...SO HAVE LEFT THE POPS
ELEVATED...AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT ANY HEAVY WORDING FOR NOW.

THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO ANY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE
TROPICS...AND ANY DIRECT IMPACTS ON THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXISTING
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE FAR SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE...BUT ALSO CONTINUE
TO DEPICT CONSIDERABLE VARIATIONS IN THE MOTION AND EVOLUTION OF ANY
SYSTEM THAT MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP. THE SITUATION IS FURTHER
COMPLICATED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR INTERACTION WITH CURRENT EAST
PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM KARINA. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY
CONFIDENCE AS TO THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS...IF ANY...ON ISLAND WEATHER
DURING THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
TRADE WIND WEATHER TO CONTINUE. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS BUT ISOL MVFR CIG/VIS IN
PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER WINDWARD SLOPES...COASTS AND
WATERS. A 6-8 KFT INVERSION WILL ACT AS A CAP ON ANY DAYTIME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURB TO THE S AND
W OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY BEYOND.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT BORDER LINE SCA CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN THE TRADES POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.

SMALL TO MODERATE SWELLS FROM AROUND THE COMPASS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOOST FROM THE SSW COULD BRIEFLY PUSH SURF TO
JUST BELOW THE SOUTH SHORE ADVISORY LEVEL ON SUNDAY. A SIMILAR PULSE
FROM THE SSW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU /SRDHFO/
FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...BEDAL






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