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000
FXHW60 PHFO 282314 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
114 PM HST TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
A RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALED WINDS UP TO 25 KT IN THE ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND....WHERE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE IN PART DUE TO
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO THE PAILOLO CHANNEL AND MAALAEA BAY BY
TOMORROW.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES TO FORM ALONG MOST LEEWARD AREAS TODAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...WITH SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON KAUAI. LOCALLY
BREEZY TRADE WINDS AND TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWER PATTERN
WILL REBUILD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1000 AM HST TUE JUL 28 2015/

GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO A LOCALLY BREEZY...EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY NEAR SHELTERED
LEEWARD TERRAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING ABOUT 1300 MILES
NORTH OF THE STATE WOULD NORMALLY DRIVE STRONGER TRADE WINDS...BUT A
SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS PASSING NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE
ISLANDS HAS BEEN SLACKENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAUSING
THE WINDS TO BE WEAKER AND OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
AFTERNOON LEEWARD SEA BREEZES TO BE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AND TO BE CONFINED NEAR LEEWARD TERRAIN.

MODEST SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES TODAY...WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER SOME
LEEWARD SECTIONS. THIS EFFECT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE...MAINLY KAUAI...WHERE A POCKET OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS PASSING THROUGH. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS PRODUCING A
WEAK INVERSION...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER ON
LEEWARD KAUAI AND POSSIBLY OAHU.

MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGHS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST MOVE
AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD...LEADING TO A RATHER STABLE TRADE WIND FLOW THAT WILL
CONFINE MOST SHOWERS TO WINDWARD SLOPES.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINT AT INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE ISLANDS AS THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E MOVE BY. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER DISSIPATES THIS SYSTEM FAR EAST
OF THE BIG ISLAND ON FRIDAY...BUT THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE TRADES AND POSSIBLY AFFECT THE STATE. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS...OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR GENERALLY WETTER TRADE WEATHER SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS RESULTING FROM A TROUGH
WEST OF THE STATE. DAYTIME SEA BREEZES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS
TODAY AND WILL BRING LEEWARD CLOUDS AND BRIEF MTN OBSC LATER
TODAY...THEN CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER MOST AREAS TODAY. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES
THROUGH THE DAY. BUOY 51003 SHOWED A BIG DROP IN SWELL ENERGY OF 15
SECONDS OR MORE OVERNIGHT...WHILE THERE WAS A SLIGHT INCREASE AT 14
SECONDS. THE BARBERS POINT BUOY HAS BEEN REGISTERING THE SWELL
AROUND 4 FT AT 14 SECONDS THIS MORNING...AND THIS SHOULD HOLD INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL DECLINE IS DUE LATER TODAY THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

WITH TRADE WINDS DUE TO BUILD...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI WILL LIKELY
BE POSTED. ONCE UP...THE ADVISORY SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TODAY SOUTH FACING SHORES OF
ALL ISLANDS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM HST THURSDAY
FOR MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...FOSTER








000
FXHW60 PHFO 282314 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
114 PM HST TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
A RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALED WINDS UP TO 25 KT IN THE ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND....WHERE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE IN PART DUE TO
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO THE PAILOLO CHANNEL AND MAALAEA BAY BY
TOMORROW.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES TO FORM ALONG MOST LEEWARD AREAS TODAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...WITH SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON KAUAI. LOCALLY
BREEZY TRADE WINDS AND TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWER PATTERN
WILL REBUILD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1000 AM HST TUE JUL 28 2015/

GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO A LOCALLY BREEZY...EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY NEAR SHELTERED
LEEWARD TERRAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING ABOUT 1300 MILES
NORTH OF THE STATE WOULD NORMALLY DRIVE STRONGER TRADE WINDS...BUT A
SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS PASSING NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE
ISLANDS HAS BEEN SLACKENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAUSING
THE WINDS TO BE WEAKER AND OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
AFTERNOON LEEWARD SEA BREEZES TO BE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AND TO BE CONFINED NEAR LEEWARD TERRAIN.

MODEST SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES TODAY...WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER SOME
LEEWARD SECTIONS. THIS EFFECT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE...MAINLY KAUAI...WHERE A POCKET OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS PASSING THROUGH. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS PRODUCING A
WEAK INVERSION...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER ON
LEEWARD KAUAI AND POSSIBLY OAHU.

MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGHS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST MOVE
AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD...LEADING TO A RATHER STABLE TRADE WIND FLOW THAT WILL
CONFINE MOST SHOWERS TO WINDWARD SLOPES.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINT AT INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE ISLANDS AS THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E MOVE BY. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER DISSIPATES THIS SYSTEM FAR EAST
OF THE BIG ISLAND ON FRIDAY...BUT THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE TRADES AND POSSIBLY AFFECT THE STATE. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS...OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR GENERALLY WETTER TRADE WEATHER SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS RESULTING FROM A TROUGH
WEST OF THE STATE. DAYTIME SEA BREEZES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS
TODAY AND WILL BRING LEEWARD CLOUDS AND BRIEF MTN OBSC LATER
TODAY...THEN CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER MOST AREAS TODAY. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES
THROUGH THE DAY. BUOY 51003 SHOWED A BIG DROP IN SWELL ENERGY OF 15
SECONDS OR MORE OVERNIGHT...WHILE THERE WAS A SLIGHT INCREASE AT 14
SECONDS. THE BARBERS POINT BUOY HAS BEEN REGISTERING THE SWELL
AROUND 4 FT AT 14 SECONDS THIS MORNING...AND THIS SHOULD HOLD INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL DECLINE IS DUE LATER TODAY THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

WITH TRADE WINDS DUE TO BUILD...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI WILL LIKELY
BE POSTED. ONCE UP...THE ADVISORY SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TODAY SOUTH FACING SHORES OF
ALL ISLANDS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM HST THURSDAY
FOR MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...FOSTER









000
FXHW60 PHFO 281954
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES TO FORM ALONG MOST LEEWARD AREAS TODAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...WITH SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON KAUAI. LOCALLY
BREEZY TRADE WINDS AND TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWER PATTERN
WILL REBUILD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO A LOCALLY BREEZY...EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY NEAR SHELTERED
LEEWARD TERRAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING ABOUT 1300 MILES
NORTH OF THE STATE WOULD NORMALLY DRIVE STRONGER TRADE WINDS...BUT A
SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS PASSING NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE
ISLANDS HAS BEEN SLACKENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAUSING
THE WINDS TO BE WEAKER AND OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
AFTERNOON LEEWARD SEA BREEZES TO BE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AND TO BE CONFINED NEAR LEEWARD TERRAIN.

MODEST SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES TODAY...WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER SOME
LEEWARD SECTIONS. THIS EFFECT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE...MAINLY KAUAI...WHERE A POCKET OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS PASSING THROUGH. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS PRODUCING A
WEAK INVERSION...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER ON
LEEWARD KAUAI AND POSSIBLY OAHU.

MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGHS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST MOVE
AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD...LEADING TO A RATHER STABLE TRADE WIND FLOW THAT WILL
CONFINE MOST SHOWERS TO WINDWARD SLOPES.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINT AT INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE ISLANDS AS THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E MOVE BY. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER DISSIPATES THIS SYSTEM FAR EAST
OF THE BIG ISLAND ON FRIDAY...BUT THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE TRADES AND POSSIBLY AFFECT THE STATE. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS...OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR GENERALLY WETTER TRADE WEATHER SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS RESULTING FROM A TROUGH
WEST OF THE STATE. DAYTIME SEA BREEZES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS
TODAY AND WILL BRING LEEWARD CLOUDS AND BRIEF MTN OBSC LATER
TODAY...THEN CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER MOST AREAS TODAY. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES
THROUGH THE DAY. BUOY 51003 SHOWED A BIG DROP IN SWELL ENERGY OF 15
SECONDS OR MORE OVERNIGHT...WHILE THERE WAS A SLIGHT INCREASE AT 14
SECONDS. THE BARBERS POINT BUOY HAS BEEN REGISTERING THE SWELL
AROUND 4 FT AT 14 SECONDS THIS MORNING...AND THIS SHOULD HOLD INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL DECLINE IS DUE LATER TODAY THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

WITH TRADE WINDS DUE TO BUILD ON WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI WILL
LIKELY BE POSTED SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. ONCE UP...THE ADVISORY SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TODAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES OF
ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...FOSTER













000
FXHW60 PHFO 281954
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES TO FORM ALONG MOST LEEWARD AREAS TODAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...WITH SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON KAUAI. LOCALLY
BREEZY TRADE WINDS AND TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWER PATTERN
WILL REBUILD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO A LOCALLY BREEZY...EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY NEAR SHELTERED
LEEWARD TERRAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING ABOUT 1300 MILES
NORTH OF THE STATE WOULD NORMALLY DRIVE STRONGER TRADE WINDS...BUT A
SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS PASSING NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE
ISLANDS HAS BEEN SLACKENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAUSING
THE WINDS TO BE WEAKER AND OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
AFTERNOON LEEWARD SEA BREEZES TO BE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AND TO BE CONFINED NEAR LEEWARD TERRAIN.

MODEST SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES TODAY...WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER SOME
LEEWARD SECTIONS. THIS EFFECT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE...MAINLY KAUAI...WHERE A POCKET OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS PASSING THROUGH. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS PRODUCING A
WEAK INVERSION...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER ON
LEEWARD KAUAI AND POSSIBLY OAHU.

MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGHS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST MOVE
AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD...LEADING TO A RATHER STABLE TRADE WIND FLOW THAT WILL
CONFINE MOST SHOWERS TO WINDWARD SLOPES.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINT AT INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE ISLANDS AS THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E MOVE BY. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER DISSIPATES THIS SYSTEM FAR EAST
OF THE BIG ISLAND ON FRIDAY...BUT THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE TRADES AND POSSIBLY AFFECT THE STATE. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS...OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR GENERALLY WETTER TRADE WEATHER SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS RESULTING FROM A TROUGH
WEST OF THE STATE. DAYTIME SEA BREEZES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS
TODAY AND WILL BRING LEEWARD CLOUDS AND BRIEF MTN OBSC LATER
TODAY...THEN CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER MOST AREAS TODAY. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES
THROUGH THE DAY. BUOY 51003 SHOWED A BIG DROP IN SWELL ENERGY OF 15
SECONDS OR MORE OVERNIGHT...WHILE THERE WAS A SLIGHT INCREASE AT 14
SECONDS. THE BARBERS POINT BUOY HAS BEEN REGISTERING THE SWELL
AROUND 4 FT AT 14 SECONDS THIS MORNING...AND THIS SHOULD HOLD INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL DECLINE IS DUE LATER TODAY THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

WITH TRADE WINDS DUE TO BUILD ON WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI WILL
LIKELY BE POSTED SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. ONCE UP...THE ADVISORY SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TODAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES OF
ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...FOSTER












000
FXHW60 PHFO 281954
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES TO FORM ALONG MOST LEEWARD AREAS TODAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...WITH SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON KAUAI. LOCALLY
BREEZY TRADE WINDS AND TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWER PATTERN
WILL REBUILD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO A LOCALLY BREEZY...EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY NEAR SHELTERED
LEEWARD TERRAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING ABOUT 1300 MILES
NORTH OF THE STATE WOULD NORMALLY DRIVE STRONGER TRADE WINDS...BUT A
SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS PASSING NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE
ISLANDS HAS BEEN SLACKENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAUSING
THE WINDS TO BE WEAKER AND OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
AFTERNOON LEEWARD SEA BREEZES TO BE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AND TO BE CONFINED NEAR LEEWARD TERRAIN.

MODEST SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES TODAY...WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER SOME
LEEWARD SECTIONS. THIS EFFECT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE...MAINLY KAUAI...WHERE A POCKET OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS PASSING THROUGH. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS PRODUCING A
WEAK INVERSION...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER ON
LEEWARD KAUAI AND POSSIBLY OAHU.

MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGHS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST MOVE
AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD...LEADING TO A RATHER STABLE TRADE WIND FLOW THAT WILL
CONFINE MOST SHOWERS TO WINDWARD SLOPES.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINT AT INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE ISLANDS AS THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E MOVE BY. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER DISSIPATES THIS SYSTEM FAR EAST
OF THE BIG ISLAND ON FRIDAY...BUT THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE TRADES AND POSSIBLY AFFECT THE STATE. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS...OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR GENERALLY WETTER TRADE WEATHER SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS RESULTING FROM A TROUGH
WEST OF THE STATE. DAYTIME SEA BREEZES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS
TODAY AND WILL BRING LEEWARD CLOUDS AND BRIEF MTN OBSC LATER
TODAY...THEN CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER MOST AREAS TODAY. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES
THROUGH THE DAY. BUOY 51003 SHOWED A BIG DROP IN SWELL ENERGY OF 15
SECONDS OR MORE OVERNIGHT...WHILE THERE WAS A SLIGHT INCREASE AT 14
SECONDS. THE BARBERS POINT BUOY HAS BEEN REGISTERING THE SWELL
AROUND 4 FT AT 14 SECONDS THIS MORNING...AND THIS SHOULD HOLD INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL DECLINE IS DUE LATER TODAY THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

WITH TRADE WINDS DUE TO BUILD ON WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI WILL
LIKELY BE POSTED SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. ONCE UP...THE ADVISORY SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TODAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES OF
ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...FOSTER













000
FXHW60 PHFO 281330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
TO FORM ALONG MOST LEEWARD AREAS TODAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...WITH SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS. LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND TYPICAL WINDWARD
AND MAUKA SHOWERS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM LAST EVENING. AN
EAST TO WEST RIDGE ALONG 41N...FAR NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...WOULD NORMALLY DRIVE MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WINDS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER...SURFACE TROUGHING BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE ISLANDS HAS SLACKENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND KEPT
TRADE WINDS IN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RANGE SINCE SUNDAY. A WIND
DIRECTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE EAST ALSO PROVIDES A BIT OF BLOCKING.
WEAKER TRADE WINDS USUALLY ALLOW LOCAL LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO FORM
AND WE DID SEE THIS YESTERDAY...ALONG WITH CONTINUED WARM
TEMPERATURES. WE EXPECT TRADE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY THROUGH
THE WEEK...BUT ANOTHER SEA BREEZE DAY MAY BE IN ORDER FOR LEEWARD
AREAS TODAY AS WE TRANSITION TO A FULL TRADE WIND PATTERN.

BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING TO OUR NORTH
WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO ALLOW
STRONGER TRADE WINDS TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. WIND DIRECTION WILL
ALSO BACK A BIT TO EASTERLIES. PREVAILING TRADE FLOW WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEA BREEZES FROM FORMING IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...CAUSING THE FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO SWITCH BACK
TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINT AT INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE ISLANDS AS THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E MOVE BY. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER DISSIPATES THIS SYSTEM A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PERSIST AND MOVE WITHIN THE TRADES. IN
RESPONSE TO THIS...OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR GENERALLY WETTER TRADE
WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEA BREEZES DURING THE DAY AND LAND BREEZES AT NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED
UNTIL THE TRADES STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO DEFEAT THEM WEDNESDAY.
INTERIOR AND MOUNTAIN CLOUDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL RESULT
FROM DAYTIME HEATING. SOME WINDWARD SECTIONS MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME FROM THE CLOUDS BROUGHT IN BY THE
TRADES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER MOST
AREAS.

NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
LOCAL BUOYS CONTINUE TO SHOW JUST ENOUGH ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTH SWELL TO WARRANT CONTINUATION OF THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR
ALL SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS SWELL
IS ACTUALLY DECLINING AND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SWELL ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

WITH TRADE WINDS DUE TO BUILD ON WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI WILL
LIKELY BE POSTED SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. ONCE UP...THE ADVISORY SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TODAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES OF
ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...KINEL











000
FXHW60 PHFO 281330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
TO FORM ALONG MOST LEEWARD AREAS TODAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...WITH SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS. LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND TYPICAL WINDWARD
AND MAUKA SHOWERS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM LAST EVENING. AN
EAST TO WEST RIDGE ALONG 41N...FAR NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...WOULD NORMALLY DRIVE MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WINDS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER...SURFACE TROUGHING BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE ISLANDS HAS SLACKENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND KEPT
TRADE WINDS IN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RANGE SINCE SUNDAY. A WIND
DIRECTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE EAST ALSO PROVIDES A BIT OF BLOCKING.
WEAKER TRADE WINDS USUALLY ALLOW LOCAL LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO FORM
AND WE DID SEE THIS YESTERDAY...ALONG WITH CONTINUED WARM
TEMPERATURES. WE EXPECT TRADE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY THROUGH
THE WEEK...BUT ANOTHER SEA BREEZE DAY MAY BE IN ORDER FOR LEEWARD
AREAS TODAY AS WE TRANSITION TO A FULL TRADE WIND PATTERN.

BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING TO OUR NORTH
WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO ALLOW
STRONGER TRADE WINDS TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. WIND DIRECTION WILL
ALSO BACK A BIT TO EASTERLIES. PREVAILING TRADE FLOW WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEA BREEZES FROM FORMING IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...CAUSING THE FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO SWITCH BACK
TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINT AT INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE ISLANDS AS THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E MOVE BY. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER DISSIPATES THIS SYSTEM A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PERSIST AND MOVE WITHIN THE TRADES. IN
RESPONSE TO THIS...OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR GENERALLY WETTER TRADE
WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEA BREEZES DURING THE DAY AND LAND BREEZES AT NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED
UNTIL THE TRADES STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO DEFEAT THEM WEDNESDAY.
INTERIOR AND MOUNTAIN CLOUDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL RESULT
FROM DAYTIME HEATING. SOME WINDWARD SECTIONS MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME FROM THE CLOUDS BROUGHT IN BY THE
TRADES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER MOST
AREAS.

NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
LOCAL BUOYS CONTINUE TO SHOW JUST ENOUGH ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTH SWELL TO WARRANT CONTINUATION OF THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR
ALL SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS SWELL
IS ACTUALLY DECLINING AND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SWELL ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

WITH TRADE WINDS DUE TO BUILD ON WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI WILL
LIKELY BE POSTED SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. ONCE UP...THE ADVISORY SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TODAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES OF
ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...KINEL










000
FXHW60 PHFO 280630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
TO SET UP ALONG MOST LEEWARD AREAS TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...WITH SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS. LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND
TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN EAST TO WEST RIDGE ALONG 41N...FAR NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...WOULD NORMALLY DRIVE MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WINDS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER...SURFACE TROUGHING BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE ISLANDS HAS SLACKENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND KEPT
TRADE WINDS IN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RANGE SINCE SUNDAY. A WIND
DIRECTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE EAST ALSO PROVIDES A BIT OF BLOCKING.
WEAKER TRADE WINDS USUALLY ALLOW LOCAL LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO FORM
AND WE DID SEE THIS TODAY...ALONG WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES.
WE EXPECT TRADE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT
ANOTHER SEA BREEZE DAY MAY BE IN ORDER FOR LEEWARD AREAS TOMORROW AS
WE TRANSITION TO A FULL TRADE WIND PATTERN.

BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING TO OUR NORTH
WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO ALLOW
STRONGER TRADE WINDS TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. WIND DIRECTION WILL
ALSO BACK A BIT TO EASTERLIES. PREVAILING TRADE FLOW WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEA BREEZES FROM FORMING IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...CAUSING THE FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO SWITCH BACK
TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINT AT INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE ISLANDS AS THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E MOVE BY. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER DISSIPATES THIS SYSTEM A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PERSIST AND MOVE WITHIN THE TRADES. IN
RESPONSE TO THIS...OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR GENERALLY WETTER TRADE
WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF SEA BREEZES DURING THE DAY AND LAND BREEZES AT NIGHT CAN
BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE TRADES STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY. MAINLY INTERIOR
AND MOUNTAIN CLOUDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOONS WILL RESULT FROM
DAYTIME HEATING. SOME WINDWARD SECTIONS MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME FROM THE CLOUDS BROUGHT IN BY THE
TRADES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER MOST
AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS SWELL IS DECLINING AND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SWELL ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

WITH TRADE WINDS DUE TO BUILD ON WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI WILL
LIKELY BE POSTED SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. ONCE UP...THE ADVISORY SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH FACING
SHORES OF ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...KINEL








000
FXHW60 PHFO 280630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
TO SET UP ALONG MOST LEEWARD AREAS TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...WITH SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS. LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND
TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN EAST TO WEST RIDGE ALONG 41N...FAR NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...WOULD NORMALLY DRIVE MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WINDS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER...SURFACE TROUGHING BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE ISLANDS HAS SLACKENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND KEPT
TRADE WINDS IN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RANGE SINCE SUNDAY. A WIND
DIRECTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE EAST ALSO PROVIDES A BIT OF BLOCKING.
WEAKER TRADE WINDS USUALLY ALLOW LOCAL LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO FORM
AND WE DID SEE THIS TODAY...ALONG WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES.
WE EXPECT TRADE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT
ANOTHER SEA BREEZE DAY MAY BE IN ORDER FOR LEEWARD AREAS TOMORROW AS
WE TRANSITION TO A FULL TRADE WIND PATTERN.

BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING TO OUR NORTH
WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO ALLOW
STRONGER TRADE WINDS TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. WIND DIRECTION WILL
ALSO BACK A BIT TO EASTERLIES. PREVAILING TRADE FLOW WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEA BREEZES FROM FORMING IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...CAUSING THE FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO SWITCH BACK
TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINT AT INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE ISLANDS AS THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E MOVE BY. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER DISSIPATES THIS SYSTEM A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PERSIST AND MOVE WITHIN THE TRADES. IN
RESPONSE TO THIS...OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR GENERALLY WETTER TRADE
WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF SEA BREEZES DURING THE DAY AND LAND BREEZES AT NIGHT CAN
BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE TRADES STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY. MAINLY INTERIOR
AND MOUNTAIN CLOUDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOONS WILL RESULT FROM
DAYTIME HEATING. SOME WINDWARD SECTIONS MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME FROM THE CLOUDS BROUGHT IN BY THE
TRADES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER MOST
AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS SWELL IS DECLINING AND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SWELL ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

WITH TRADE WINDS DUE TO BUILD ON WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI WILL
LIKELY BE POSTED SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. ONCE UP...THE ADVISORY SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH FACING
SHORES OF ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...KINEL








000
FXHW60 PHFO 280630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
TO SET UP ALONG MOST LEEWARD AREAS TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...WITH SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS. LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND
TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN EAST TO WEST RIDGE ALONG 41N...FAR NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...WOULD NORMALLY DRIVE MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WINDS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER...SURFACE TROUGHING BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE ISLANDS HAS SLACKENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND KEPT
TRADE WINDS IN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RANGE SINCE SUNDAY. A WIND
DIRECTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE EAST ALSO PROVIDES A BIT OF BLOCKING.
WEAKER TRADE WINDS USUALLY ALLOW LOCAL LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO FORM
AND WE DID SEE THIS TODAY...ALONG WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES.
WE EXPECT TRADE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT
ANOTHER SEA BREEZE DAY MAY BE IN ORDER FOR LEEWARD AREAS TOMORROW AS
WE TRANSITION TO A FULL TRADE WIND PATTERN.

BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING TO OUR NORTH
WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO ALLOW
STRONGER TRADE WINDS TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. WIND DIRECTION WILL
ALSO BACK A BIT TO EASTERLIES. PREVAILING TRADE FLOW WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEA BREEZES FROM FORMING IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...CAUSING THE FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO SWITCH BACK
TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINT AT INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE ISLANDS AS THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E MOVE BY. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER DISSIPATES THIS SYSTEM A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PERSIST AND MOVE WITHIN THE TRADES. IN
RESPONSE TO THIS...OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR GENERALLY WETTER TRADE
WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF SEA BREEZES DURING THE DAY AND LAND BREEZES AT NIGHT CAN
BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE TRADES STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY. MAINLY INTERIOR
AND MOUNTAIN CLOUDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOONS WILL RESULT FROM
DAYTIME HEATING. SOME WINDWARD SECTIONS MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME FROM THE CLOUDS BROUGHT IN BY THE
TRADES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER MOST
AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS SWELL IS DECLINING AND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SWELL ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

WITH TRADE WINDS DUE TO BUILD ON WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI WILL
LIKELY BE POSTED SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. ONCE UP...THE ADVISORY SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH FACING
SHORES OF ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...KINEL







000
FXHW60 PHFO 280630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
TO SET UP ALONG MOST LEEWARD AREAS TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...WITH SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS. LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND
TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN EAST TO WEST RIDGE ALONG 41N...FAR NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...WOULD NORMALLY DRIVE MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WINDS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER...SURFACE TROUGHING BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE ISLANDS HAS SLACKENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND KEPT
TRADE WINDS IN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RANGE SINCE SUNDAY. A WIND
DIRECTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE EAST ALSO PROVIDES A BIT OF BLOCKING.
WEAKER TRADE WINDS USUALLY ALLOW LOCAL LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO FORM
AND WE DID SEE THIS TODAY...ALONG WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES.
WE EXPECT TRADE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT
ANOTHER SEA BREEZE DAY MAY BE IN ORDER FOR LEEWARD AREAS TOMORROW AS
WE TRANSITION TO A FULL TRADE WIND PATTERN.

BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING TO OUR NORTH
WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO ALLOW
STRONGER TRADE WINDS TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. WIND DIRECTION WILL
ALSO BACK A BIT TO EASTERLIES. PREVAILING TRADE FLOW WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEA BREEZES FROM FORMING IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...CAUSING THE FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO SWITCH BACK
TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINT AT INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE ISLANDS AS THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E MOVE BY. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER DISSIPATES THIS SYSTEM A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PERSIST AND MOVE WITHIN THE TRADES. IN
RESPONSE TO THIS...OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR GENERALLY WETTER TRADE
WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF SEA BREEZES DURING THE DAY AND LAND BREEZES AT NIGHT CAN
BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE TRADES STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY. MAINLY INTERIOR
AND MOUNTAIN CLOUDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOONS WILL RESULT FROM
DAYTIME HEATING. SOME WINDWARD SECTIONS MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME FROM THE CLOUDS BROUGHT IN BY THE
TRADES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER MOST
AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS SWELL IS DECLINING AND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SWELL ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

WITH TRADE WINDS DUE TO BUILD ON WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI WILL
LIKELY BE POSTED SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. ONCE UP...THE ADVISORY SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH FACING
SHORES OF ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...KINEL







000
FXHW60 PHFO 280133
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE
RANGE THROUGH TOMORROW...WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
TO SET UP ALONG MOST LEEWARD AREAS. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...WITH SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS. LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND TYPICAL WINDWARD
AND MAUKA SHOWERS PATTERN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT GENTLE TO LOCALLY
MODERATE STRENGTH THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES TO PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER MOST LEEWARD
AREAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ABOUT 1400 MILES NORTH OF
THE STATE...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DRIVE LOCALLY
BREEZY TRADE WINDS LOCALLY. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHS PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS HAS BEEN WEAKENING THE TRADE
WINDS AND CAUSING THEM TO SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST.
THE RESULT HAS BEEN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES OVER MOST LEEWARD
AREAS...PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS. EXPECT A REPEAT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. THE ISLANDS LIE WITHIN A
TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND
AND TROUGHING TO THE NORTH...AND THE SOUNDINGS REVEAL NO INVERSION
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING ABOUT 15 TO 25 PERCENT ABOVE
NORMAL. AS A RESULT...BRIEF ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ON
LEEWARD SECTIONS OF ALL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
ON TUESDAY. LEEWARD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH BEFORE
SUN DOWN...ALLOWING RAINFALL TO BECOME FOCUSED OVER TYPICAL WINDWARD
SLOPES OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH
DEEPENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
FOR A BRIEFLY HEAVY WINDWARD SHOWER IS POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN END
OF THE STATE TONIGHT.

TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...AND A TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA
RAINFALL WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGHS
PASSING NORTH OF THE STATE WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF TO THE WEST...
ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AND TRADES TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE STATE. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTH
WILL STRENGTHEN AND SETTLE OVER THE ISLANDS...BRINGING INCREASINGLY
STABLE CONDITIONS AND LIKELY LIMITING SHOWERS TO WINDWARD SLOPES.

UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E MOVING OVER THE ISLANDS IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PLACES THE WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE A
COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND ON SATURDAY.
NOTE THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS THIS FAR OUT CONTAIN A HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...SO THE FORECAST WAS BROADLY PAINTED WETTER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SITTING FAR TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
YIELD LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
TUESDAY. BOUTS OF SEA BREEZES DURING THE DAY MAY OVERRIDE THE TRADES
AT TIMES UNTIL THE TRADES STRENGTHEN LATER THIS WEEK.

MAINLY INTERIOR AND MOUNTAIN CLOUDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOONS WILL
RESULT FROM DAYTIME HEATING. AND SOME WINDWARD SECTIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES FROM THE CLOUDS BROUGHT IN BY
THE TRADES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER
MOST AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH
TONIGHT. BUOYS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS ARE SHOWING A SLOW DECLINE IN
LONG PERIOD ENERGY...SIGNALING THAT THE SWELL IS ON A SLOW DECLINE.
ALTHOUGH THE ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY SET TO END TONIGHT...CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN BORDER LINE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE SWELL WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH NO OTHER SOURCES FOR
SIGNIFICANT SWELL DUE THIS WEEK.

WITH TRADE WINDS DUE TO BUILD ON WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
/SCA/ FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
WILL LIKELY BE POSTED SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. ONCE UP...THE SCA SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH FACING
SHORES OF ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...FUJII






000
FXHW60 PHFO 280133
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE
RANGE THROUGH TOMORROW...WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
TO SET UP ALONG MOST LEEWARD AREAS. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...WITH SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS. LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND TYPICAL WINDWARD
AND MAUKA SHOWERS PATTERN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT GENTLE TO LOCALLY
MODERATE STRENGTH THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES TO PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER MOST LEEWARD
AREAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ABOUT 1400 MILES NORTH OF
THE STATE...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DRIVE LOCALLY
BREEZY TRADE WINDS LOCALLY. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHS PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS HAS BEEN WEAKENING THE TRADE
WINDS AND CAUSING THEM TO SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST.
THE RESULT HAS BEEN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES OVER MOST LEEWARD
AREAS...PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS. EXPECT A REPEAT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. THE ISLANDS LIE WITHIN A
TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND
AND TROUGHING TO THE NORTH...AND THE SOUNDINGS REVEAL NO INVERSION
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING ABOUT 15 TO 25 PERCENT ABOVE
NORMAL. AS A RESULT...BRIEF ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ON
LEEWARD SECTIONS OF ALL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
ON TUESDAY. LEEWARD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH BEFORE
SUN DOWN...ALLOWING RAINFALL TO BECOME FOCUSED OVER TYPICAL WINDWARD
SLOPES OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH
DEEPENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
FOR A BRIEFLY HEAVY WINDWARD SHOWER IS POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN END
OF THE STATE TONIGHT.

TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...AND A TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA
RAINFALL WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGHS
PASSING NORTH OF THE STATE WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF TO THE WEST...
ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AND TRADES TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE STATE. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTH
WILL STRENGTHEN AND SETTLE OVER THE ISLANDS...BRINGING INCREASINGLY
STABLE CONDITIONS AND LIKELY LIMITING SHOWERS TO WINDWARD SLOPES.

UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E MOVING OVER THE ISLANDS IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PLACES THE WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE A
COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND ON SATURDAY.
NOTE THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS THIS FAR OUT CONTAIN A HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...SO THE FORECAST WAS BROADLY PAINTED WETTER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SITTING FAR TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
YIELD LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
TUESDAY. BOUTS OF SEA BREEZES DURING THE DAY MAY OVERRIDE THE TRADES
AT TIMES UNTIL THE TRADES STRENGTHEN LATER THIS WEEK.

MAINLY INTERIOR AND MOUNTAIN CLOUDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOONS WILL
RESULT FROM DAYTIME HEATING. AND SOME WINDWARD SECTIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES FROM THE CLOUDS BROUGHT IN BY
THE TRADES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER
MOST AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH
TONIGHT. BUOYS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS ARE SHOWING A SLOW DECLINE IN
LONG PERIOD ENERGY...SIGNALING THAT THE SWELL IS ON A SLOW DECLINE.
ALTHOUGH THE ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY SET TO END TONIGHT...CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN BORDER LINE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE SWELL WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH NO OTHER SOURCES FOR
SIGNIFICANT SWELL DUE THIS WEEK.

WITH TRADE WINDS DUE TO BUILD ON WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
/SCA/ FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
WILL LIKELY BE POSTED SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. ONCE UP...THE SCA SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH FACING
SHORES OF ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...FUJII






000
FXHW60 PHFO 280133
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE
RANGE THROUGH TOMORROW...WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
TO SET UP ALONG MOST LEEWARD AREAS. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...WITH SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS. LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND TYPICAL WINDWARD
AND MAUKA SHOWERS PATTERN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT GENTLE TO LOCALLY
MODERATE STRENGTH THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES TO PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER MOST LEEWARD
AREAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ABOUT 1400 MILES NORTH OF
THE STATE...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DRIVE LOCALLY
BREEZY TRADE WINDS LOCALLY. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHS PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS HAS BEEN WEAKENING THE TRADE
WINDS AND CAUSING THEM TO SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST.
THE RESULT HAS BEEN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES OVER MOST LEEWARD
AREAS...PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS. EXPECT A REPEAT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. THE ISLANDS LIE WITHIN A
TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND
AND TROUGHING TO THE NORTH...AND THE SOUNDINGS REVEAL NO INVERSION
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING ABOUT 15 TO 25 PERCENT ABOVE
NORMAL. AS A RESULT...BRIEF ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ON
LEEWARD SECTIONS OF ALL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
ON TUESDAY. LEEWARD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH BEFORE
SUN DOWN...ALLOWING RAINFALL TO BECOME FOCUSED OVER TYPICAL WINDWARD
SLOPES OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH
DEEPENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
FOR A BRIEFLY HEAVY WINDWARD SHOWER IS POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN END
OF THE STATE TONIGHT.

TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...AND A TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA
RAINFALL WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGHS
PASSING NORTH OF THE STATE WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF TO THE WEST...
ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AND TRADES TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE STATE. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTH
WILL STRENGTHEN AND SETTLE OVER THE ISLANDS...BRINGING INCREASINGLY
STABLE CONDITIONS AND LIKELY LIMITING SHOWERS TO WINDWARD SLOPES.

UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E MOVING OVER THE ISLANDS IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PLACES THE WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE A
COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND ON SATURDAY.
NOTE THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS THIS FAR OUT CONTAIN A HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...SO THE FORECAST WAS BROADLY PAINTED WETTER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SITTING FAR TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
YIELD LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
TUESDAY. BOUTS OF SEA BREEZES DURING THE DAY MAY OVERRIDE THE TRADES
AT TIMES UNTIL THE TRADES STRENGTHEN LATER THIS WEEK.

MAINLY INTERIOR AND MOUNTAIN CLOUDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOONS WILL
RESULT FROM DAYTIME HEATING. AND SOME WINDWARD SECTIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES FROM THE CLOUDS BROUGHT IN BY
THE TRADES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER
MOST AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH
TONIGHT. BUOYS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS ARE SHOWING A SLOW DECLINE IN
LONG PERIOD ENERGY...SIGNALING THAT THE SWELL IS ON A SLOW DECLINE.
ALTHOUGH THE ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY SET TO END TONIGHT...CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN BORDER LINE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE SWELL WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH NO OTHER SOURCES FOR
SIGNIFICANT SWELL DUE THIS WEEK.

WITH TRADE WINDS DUE TO BUILD ON WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
/SCA/ FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
WILL LIKELY BE POSTED SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. ONCE UP...THE SCA SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH FACING
SHORES OF ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...FUJII







000
FXHW60 PHFO 280133
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE
RANGE THROUGH TOMORROW...WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
TO SET UP ALONG MOST LEEWARD AREAS. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...WITH SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS. LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND TYPICAL WINDWARD
AND MAUKA SHOWERS PATTERN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT GENTLE TO LOCALLY
MODERATE STRENGTH THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES TO PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER MOST LEEWARD
AREAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ABOUT 1400 MILES NORTH OF
THE STATE...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DRIVE LOCALLY
BREEZY TRADE WINDS LOCALLY. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHS PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS HAS BEEN WEAKENING THE TRADE
WINDS AND CAUSING THEM TO SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST.
THE RESULT HAS BEEN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES OVER MOST LEEWARD
AREAS...PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS. EXPECT A REPEAT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. THE ISLANDS LIE WITHIN A
TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND
AND TROUGHING TO THE NORTH...AND THE SOUNDINGS REVEAL NO INVERSION
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING ABOUT 15 TO 25 PERCENT ABOVE
NORMAL. AS A RESULT...BRIEF ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ON
LEEWARD SECTIONS OF ALL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
ON TUESDAY. LEEWARD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH BEFORE
SUN DOWN...ALLOWING RAINFALL TO BECOME FOCUSED OVER TYPICAL WINDWARD
SLOPES OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH
DEEPENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
FOR A BRIEFLY HEAVY WINDWARD SHOWER IS POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN END
OF THE STATE TONIGHT.

TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...AND A TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA
RAINFALL WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGHS
PASSING NORTH OF THE STATE WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF TO THE WEST...
ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AND TRADES TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE STATE. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTH
WILL STRENGTHEN AND SETTLE OVER THE ISLANDS...BRINGING INCREASINGLY
STABLE CONDITIONS AND LIKELY LIMITING SHOWERS TO WINDWARD SLOPES.

UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E MOVING OVER THE ISLANDS IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PLACES THE WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE A
COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND ON SATURDAY.
NOTE THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS THIS FAR OUT CONTAIN A HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...SO THE FORECAST WAS BROADLY PAINTED WETTER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SITTING FAR TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
YIELD LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
TUESDAY. BOUTS OF SEA BREEZES DURING THE DAY MAY OVERRIDE THE TRADES
AT TIMES UNTIL THE TRADES STRENGTHEN LATER THIS WEEK.

MAINLY INTERIOR AND MOUNTAIN CLOUDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOONS WILL
RESULT FROM DAYTIME HEATING. AND SOME WINDWARD SECTIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES FROM THE CLOUDS BROUGHT IN BY
THE TRADES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER
MOST AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH
TONIGHT. BUOYS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS ARE SHOWING A SLOW DECLINE IN
LONG PERIOD ENERGY...SIGNALING THAT THE SWELL IS ON A SLOW DECLINE.
ALTHOUGH THE ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY SET TO END TONIGHT...CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN BORDER LINE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE SWELL WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH NO OTHER SOURCES FOR
SIGNIFICANT SWELL DUE THIS WEEK.

WITH TRADE WINDS DUE TO BUILD ON WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
/SCA/ FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
WILL LIKELY BE POSTED SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. ONCE UP...THE SCA SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH FACING
SHORES OF ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...FUJII







000
FXHW60 PHFO 271958
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE
RANGE THROUGH TOMORROW...WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
TO SET UP ALONG MOST LEEWARD AREAS. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...WITH SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS. LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND TYPICAL WINDWARD
AND MAUKA SHOWERS PATTERN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT GENTLE TO LOCALLY
MODERATE STRENGTH THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES TO PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER MOST LEEWARD
AREAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ABOUT 1400 MILES NORTH OF
THE STATE...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DRIVE LOCALLY
BREEZY TRADE WINDS LOCALLY. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHS PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS HAS BEEN WEAKENING THE TRADE
WINDS AND CAUSING THEM TO SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST.
THE RESULT HAS BEEN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES OVER MOST LEEWARD
AREAS...PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS. EXPECT A REPEAT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS SOMEWHAT STABLE...AS THE ISLANDS LIE WITHIN A
TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND
AND TROUGHING TO THE NORTH...BUT THE SOUNDINGS REVEAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING ABOUT 15 TO 20 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. AS A
RESULT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER OVER LEEWARD AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. LEEWARD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING RAINFALL TO BECOME FOCUSED OVER TYPICAL
WINDWARD SLOPES OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
IS POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE TONIGHT.

TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...AND A TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA
RAINFALL WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGHS
PASSING NORTH OF THE STATE WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF TO THE WEST...
ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AND TRADES TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE STATE. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTH
WILL STRENGTHEN AND SETTLE OVER THE ISLANDS...BRINGING INCREASINGLY
STABLE CONDITIONS AND LIKELY LIMITING SHOWERS TO WINDWARD SLOPES.
THE NEXT INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SITTING FAR TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
YIELD LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
TUESDAY. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO KICK IN AT TIMES
DUE TO THE LIGHT WIND REGIME. BUT DO NOT EXPECT LAND BREEZES AT
NIGHT TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE DAYTIME SEA BREEZES WITH LIGHT
TRADES PREVAILING IN MOST AREAS AT NIGHT.

THUS EXPECT SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS TO BUILD PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND LEEWARD SECTIONS WITH SOME MVFR CIGS
OCCURING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH
TONIGHT. BUOYS 51002 AND 51003 SHOWED A MODEST PULSE OF RENEWED
SWELL ENERGY IN THE 15 TO 16 SECOND RANGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN SURF AT CURRENT LEVELS...WELL ABOVE THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF 8 FT...AND CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR
SOME BREAKING WAVE AT HARBOR ENTRANCES THROUGH THE DAY. THE SWELL
WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL DECLINE TONIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH THE ADVISORY IS
CURRENTLY SET TO END BY TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
BORDER LINE FOR TUESDAY. THE SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH NO OTHER SOURCES FOR SIGNIFICANT SWELL DUE THIS WEEK.

WITH TRADE WINDS DUE TO BUILD ON WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
/SCA/ FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
WILL LIKELY BE POSTED SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. ONCE UP...THE SCA SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH FACING
SHORES OF ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...FUJII







000
FXHW60 PHFO 271958
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE
RANGE THROUGH TOMORROW...WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
TO SET UP ALONG MOST LEEWARD AREAS. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...WITH SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS. LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND TYPICAL WINDWARD
AND MAUKA SHOWERS PATTERN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT GENTLE TO LOCALLY
MODERATE STRENGTH THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES TO PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER MOST LEEWARD
AREAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ABOUT 1400 MILES NORTH OF
THE STATE...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DRIVE LOCALLY
BREEZY TRADE WINDS LOCALLY. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHS PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS HAS BEEN WEAKENING THE TRADE
WINDS AND CAUSING THEM TO SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST.
THE RESULT HAS BEEN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES OVER MOST LEEWARD
AREAS...PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS. EXPECT A REPEAT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS SOMEWHAT STABLE...AS THE ISLANDS LIE WITHIN A
TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND
AND TROUGHING TO THE NORTH...BUT THE SOUNDINGS REVEAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING ABOUT 15 TO 20 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. AS A
RESULT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER OVER LEEWARD AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. LEEWARD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING RAINFALL TO BECOME FOCUSED OVER TYPICAL
WINDWARD SLOPES OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
IS POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE TONIGHT.

TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...AND A TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA
RAINFALL WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGHS
PASSING NORTH OF THE STATE WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF TO THE WEST...
ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AND TRADES TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE STATE. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTH
WILL STRENGTHEN AND SETTLE OVER THE ISLANDS...BRINGING INCREASINGLY
STABLE CONDITIONS AND LIKELY LIMITING SHOWERS TO WINDWARD SLOPES.
THE NEXT INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SITTING FAR TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
YIELD LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
TUESDAY. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO KICK IN AT TIMES
DUE TO THE LIGHT WIND REGIME. BUT DO NOT EXPECT LAND BREEZES AT
NIGHT TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE DAYTIME SEA BREEZES WITH LIGHT
TRADES PREVAILING IN MOST AREAS AT NIGHT.

THUS EXPECT SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS TO BUILD PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND LEEWARD SECTIONS WITH SOME MVFR CIGS
OCCURING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH
TONIGHT. BUOYS 51002 AND 51003 SHOWED A MODEST PULSE OF RENEWED
SWELL ENERGY IN THE 15 TO 16 SECOND RANGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN SURF AT CURRENT LEVELS...WELL ABOVE THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF 8 FT...AND CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR
SOME BREAKING WAVE AT HARBOR ENTRANCES THROUGH THE DAY. THE SWELL
WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL DECLINE TONIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH THE ADVISORY IS
CURRENTLY SET TO END BY TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
BORDER LINE FOR TUESDAY. THE SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH NO OTHER SOURCES FOR SIGNIFICANT SWELL DUE THIS WEEK.

WITH TRADE WINDS DUE TO BUILD ON WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
/SCA/ FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
WILL LIKELY BE POSTED SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. ONCE UP...THE SCA SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH FACING
SHORES OF ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...FUJII






000
FXHW60 PHFO 271412
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS WEAK THROUGH TONIGHT...ALLOWING LOCAL
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO FORM...MAINLY
ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN BY MID-WEEK
AS THE SURFACE TROUGHS MOVE WEST OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 44N 150W...OR MORE THAN 1600 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU...IS DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE
CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF LATITUDE 50N. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT FAR SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE IS BEING DISRUPTED BY WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. ONE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE NEAR LONGITUDE 163W...OR ABOUT 260
MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF LIHUE. ANOTHER ONE IS DETECTED NEAR
LONGITUDE 154W...OR ABOUT 400 MILES NORTH OF HILO. THESE LOW-LEVEL
FEATURES HAVE BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...SO THEY WILL BE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AS A
RESULT...THE BACKGROUND TRADE WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW LOCAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME
LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE
INDIVIDUAL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

ALOFT...WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE RELATIVELY STABLE. THERE
ARE ALSO LOCALIZED POCKETS OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ VALUES
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING. THE EARLY MORNING BALLOON
SOUNDINGS SHOWED PW OF 1.5 INCHES AT LIHUE AND 1.6 INCHES AT HILO.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW SCATTERED LOW
CLOUD AND SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST BIG ISLAND
AND NEAR EAST MAUI. ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF SOME OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE TRADES WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER LEEWARD AREAS...DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
LOCAL SEA BREEZES FORM. IN ADDITION...THE LIGHT TRADE WINDS MAY
CARRY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS. WHILE SHOWER AREAS MAY VARY IN SIZE DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF
DAY...NO HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST. THE LOCAL NIGHTTIME LAND
BREEZES SHOULD CAUSE MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE
OVER LAND LATER THIS EVENING AS RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOPS AFTER
SUNSET.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL WEST OF
THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER
THE ISLANDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTH OF THE AREA REASSERTS
CONTROL OVER THE LOCAL WIND FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW A MODERATE
LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW TO BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ALOHA
STATE. THIS SHOULD ALSO RETURN A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER
PATTERN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. NO HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...SINCE THE FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGING WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SERIES OF TROUGHS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS...WILL KEEP A
LIGHT WIND REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...DAYTIME SEAS BREEZES AND OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING...AND SOME BRIEF MVFR
CIGS COULD IMPACT PHTO AND PHLI. THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL FOCUS PRIMARILY ACROSS INTERIOR AND LEEWARD
AREAS...WITH PHNY THE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS. OVERALL
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL KEEP SURF HEIGHTS WELL ABOVE THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLD ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES OF ALL
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE MOST RECENT
READINGS FROM THE BARBERS POINT BUOY SHOW SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
OF ABOUT 5 FEET WITH A DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD OF 14 TO 15 SECONDS FROM
190 TO 200 DEGREES. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IS ALSO IN EFFECT
INDICATING THIS SWELL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO GENERATE MODERATE
SURGES IN SOUTH FACING HARBORS...AS WELL AS CAUSING SOME WAVES TO
BREAK IN AND NEAR THE ENTRANCES TO SOUTH FACING HARBORS. THIS SOUTH
SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT TRADE WIND SPEEDS
WILL REACH THE SCA CRITERIA IN THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS ADJACENT
TO THE BIG ISLAND AND THE ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY STARTING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE LATEST FORECAST INDICATES THESE SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THESE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH FACING
SHORES OF ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...JELSEMA






000
FXHW60 PHFO 271412
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS WEAK THROUGH TONIGHT...ALLOWING LOCAL
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO FORM...MAINLY
ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN BY MID-WEEK
AS THE SURFACE TROUGHS MOVE WEST OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 44N 150W...OR MORE THAN 1600 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU...IS DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE
CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF LATITUDE 50N. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT FAR SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE IS BEING DISRUPTED BY WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. ONE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE NEAR LONGITUDE 163W...OR ABOUT 260
MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF LIHUE. ANOTHER ONE IS DETECTED NEAR
LONGITUDE 154W...OR ABOUT 400 MILES NORTH OF HILO. THESE LOW-LEVEL
FEATURES HAVE BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...SO THEY WILL BE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AS A
RESULT...THE BACKGROUND TRADE WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW LOCAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME
LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE
INDIVIDUAL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

ALOFT...WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE RELATIVELY STABLE. THERE
ARE ALSO LOCALIZED POCKETS OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ VALUES
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING. THE EARLY MORNING BALLOON
SOUNDINGS SHOWED PW OF 1.5 INCHES AT LIHUE AND 1.6 INCHES AT HILO.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW SCATTERED LOW
CLOUD AND SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST BIG ISLAND
AND NEAR EAST MAUI. ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF SOME OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE TRADES WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER LEEWARD AREAS...DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
LOCAL SEA BREEZES FORM. IN ADDITION...THE LIGHT TRADE WINDS MAY
CARRY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS. WHILE SHOWER AREAS MAY VARY IN SIZE DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF
DAY...NO HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST. THE LOCAL NIGHTTIME LAND
BREEZES SHOULD CAUSE MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE
OVER LAND LATER THIS EVENING AS RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOPS AFTER
SUNSET.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL WEST OF
THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER
THE ISLANDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTH OF THE AREA REASSERTS
CONTROL OVER THE LOCAL WIND FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW A MODERATE
LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW TO BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ALOHA
STATE. THIS SHOULD ALSO RETURN A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER
PATTERN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. NO HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...SINCE THE FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGING WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SERIES OF TROUGHS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS...WILL KEEP A
LIGHT WIND REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...DAYTIME SEAS BREEZES AND OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING...AND SOME BRIEF MVFR
CIGS COULD IMPACT PHTO AND PHLI. THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL FOCUS PRIMARILY ACROSS INTERIOR AND LEEWARD
AREAS...WITH PHNY THE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS. OVERALL
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL KEEP SURF HEIGHTS WELL ABOVE THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLD ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES OF ALL
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE MOST RECENT
READINGS FROM THE BARBERS POINT BUOY SHOW SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
OF ABOUT 5 FEET WITH A DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD OF 14 TO 15 SECONDS FROM
190 TO 200 DEGREES. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IS ALSO IN EFFECT
INDICATING THIS SWELL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO GENERATE MODERATE
SURGES IN SOUTH FACING HARBORS...AS WELL AS CAUSING SOME WAVES TO
BREAK IN AND NEAR THE ENTRANCES TO SOUTH FACING HARBORS. THIS SOUTH
SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT TRADE WIND SPEEDS
WILL REACH THE SCA CRITERIA IN THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS ADJACENT
TO THE BIG ISLAND AND THE ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY STARTING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE LATEST FORECAST INDICATES THESE SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THESE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH FACING
SHORES OF ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...JELSEMA







000
FXHW60 PHFO 270634 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS WEAK THROUGH MONDAY...ALLOWING LOCAL NIGHTTIME
LAND BREEZES AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO FORM...MAINLY ACROSS
LEEWARD AREAS. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK AS THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS MOVE WEST OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 43N 156W...OR ABOUT 1530 MILES NORTH OF
HONOLULU...IS DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL
NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF LATITUDE 50N. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FAR SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE IS BEING DISRUPTED BY WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS
TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ONE
TROUGH APPEARS TO BE NEAR LONGITUDE 162W...OR ABOUT 180 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF LIHUE. ANOTHER ONE MAY BE NEAR LONGITUDE 149W...OR
ABOUT 450 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF HILO. THESE FEATURES HAVE BEEN
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...SO THEY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE TRADE
WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW LOCAL
NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP MAINLY
OVER LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE INDIVIDUAL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

ALOFT...WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE RELATIVELY STABLE. THERE
ARE ALSO LOCALIZED POCKETS OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ VALUES
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING. HOWEVER...THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BALLOON SOUNDINGS SHOWED PW OF 1.1 INCHES AT LIHUE AND 1.4 INCHES AT
HILO. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW LIMITED
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE ISLANDS. THE MAIN AREA
OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS ADJACENT TO THE
WINDWARD AND SOUTHEASTERN BIG ISLAND. THERE IS ALSO RESIDUAL
CLOUDINESS OVER SOME LEEWARD SECTIONS OF SOME THE ISLANDS...BUT THIS
IS FADING AS LOCAL NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES DEVELOP AFTER DUSK THIS
EVENING. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WINDWARD COASTAL WATERS
AND MOVE OVER WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES OF A FEW OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE TRADES WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH
MONDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOCAL SEA BREEZES FORM. IN ADDITION...THE
LIGHT TRADE WINDS MAY CARRY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. WHILE SHOWER AREAS MAY VARY IN SIZE
DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF DAY...NO HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST OF THE
ISLANDS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE
ISLANDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTH OF THE AREA REASSERTS CONTROL
OVER THE LOCAL WIND FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW A MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TRADE
WIND FLOW TO BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ALOHA STATE. THIS
SHOULD ALSO RETURN A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. NO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...SINCE THE FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING REMAINS ABOVE THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE END
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SERIES OF TROUGHS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS...WILL KEEP A
LIGHT WIND REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY. AS A
RESULT...OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES AND DAYTIME SEAS BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS TONIGHT...AND SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS COULD
IMPACT PHTO AND PHLI. ON MONDAY...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FOCUS
PRIMARILY ACROSS INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS...AND PHNY APPEARS MOST
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS. OVERALL HOWEVER...GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL KEEP SURF HEIGHTS
NEAR THE HIGH SURF WARNING CRITERIA ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES OF ALL
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT IS ALSO IN EFFECT INDICATING THIS SWELL WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO GENERATE MODERATE SURGES IN SOUTH FACING HARBORS...AS
WELL AS SOME WAVES BREAKING IN AND NEAR CHANNEL ENTRANCES. THE MOST
RECENT READINGS FROM THE BARBERS POINT BUOY SHOW SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS OF ABOUT 5.5 FEET WITH A DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD OF 15 TO 16
SECONDS FROM 190 TO 200 DEGREES.

THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL SHOWS ANOTHER SMALL PULSE OF REINFORCING
SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE REACHING THE ISLANDS ON
MONDAY AND BLENDING IN WITH THE EARLIER SOUTH SWELL. AS A RESULT...
SURF HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
THRESHOLD ALONG ALL SOUTH FACING SHORES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TUESDAY. THEREFORE...SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING SHORES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE FIRST
COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...MODEL
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT TRADE WIND SPEEDS MAY BE NEAR THE SCA CRITERIA
IN THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS ADJACENT TO THE BIG ISLAND AND THE
ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. IF
FUTURE MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS TREND...SCA CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY BE ADDED TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS STARTING SOME TIME
DURING MID-WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH FACING
SHORES OF ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

&&

$$







000
FXHW60 PHFO 270634 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS WEAK THROUGH MONDAY...ALLOWING LOCAL NIGHTTIME
LAND BREEZES AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO FORM...MAINLY ACROSS
LEEWARD AREAS. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK AS THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS MOVE WEST OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 43N 156W...OR ABOUT 1530 MILES NORTH OF
HONOLULU...IS DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL
NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF LATITUDE 50N. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FAR SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE IS BEING DISRUPTED BY WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS
TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ONE
TROUGH APPEARS TO BE NEAR LONGITUDE 162W...OR ABOUT 180 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF LIHUE. ANOTHER ONE MAY BE NEAR LONGITUDE 149W...OR
ABOUT 450 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF HILO. THESE FEATURES HAVE BEEN
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...SO THEY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE TRADE
WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW LOCAL
NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP MAINLY
OVER LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE INDIVIDUAL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

ALOFT...WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE RELATIVELY STABLE. THERE
ARE ALSO LOCALIZED POCKETS OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ VALUES
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING. HOWEVER...THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BALLOON SOUNDINGS SHOWED PW OF 1.1 INCHES AT LIHUE AND 1.4 INCHES AT
HILO. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW LIMITED
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE ISLANDS. THE MAIN AREA
OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS ADJACENT TO THE
WINDWARD AND SOUTHEASTERN BIG ISLAND. THERE IS ALSO RESIDUAL
CLOUDINESS OVER SOME LEEWARD SECTIONS OF SOME THE ISLANDS...BUT THIS
IS FADING AS LOCAL NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES DEVELOP AFTER DUSK THIS
EVENING. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WINDWARD COASTAL WATERS
AND MOVE OVER WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES OF A FEW OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE TRADES WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH
MONDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOCAL SEA BREEZES FORM. IN ADDITION...THE
LIGHT TRADE WINDS MAY CARRY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. WHILE SHOWER AREAS MAY VARY IN SIZE
DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF DAY...NO HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST OF THE
ISLANDS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE
ISLANDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTH OF THE AREA REASSERTS CONTROL
OVER THE LOCAL WIND FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW A MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TRADE
WIND FLOW TO BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ALOHA STATE. THIS
SHOULD ALSO RETURN A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. NO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...SINCE THE FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING REMAINS ABOVE THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE END
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SERIES OF TROUGHS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS...WILL KEEP A
LIGHT WIND REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY. AS A
RESULT...OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES AND DAYTIME SEAS BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS TONIGHT...AND SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS COULD
IMPACT PHTO AND PHLI. ON MONDAY...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FOCUS
PRIMARILY ACROSS INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS...AND PHNY APPEARS MOST
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS. OVERALL HOWEVER...GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL KEEP SURF HEIGHTS
NEAR THE HIGH SURF WARNING CRITERIA ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES OF ALL
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT IS ALSO IN EFFECT INDICATING THIS SWELL WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO GENERATE MODERATE SURGES IN SOUTH FACING HARBORS...AS
WELL AS SOME WAVES BREAKING IN AND NEAR CHANNEL ENTRANCES. THE MOST
RECENT READINGS FROM THE BARBERS POINT BUOY SHOW SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS OF ABOUT 5.5 FEET WITH A DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD OF 15 TO 16
SECONDS FROM 190 TO 200 DEGREES.

THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL SHOWS ANOTHER SMALL PULSE OF REINFORCING
SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE REACHING THE ISLANDS ON
MONDAY AND BLENDING IN WITH THE EARLIER SOUTH SWELL. AS A RESULT...
SURF HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
THRESHOLD ALONG ALL SOUTH FACING SHORES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TUESDAY. THEREFORE...SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING SHORES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE FIRST
COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...MODEL
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT TRADE WIND SPEEDS MAY BE NEAR THE SCA CRITERIA
IN THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS ADJACENT TO THE BIG ISLAND AND THE
ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. IF
FUTURE MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS TREND...SCA CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY BE ADDED TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS STARTING SOME TIME
DURING MID-WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH FACING
SHORES OF ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

&&

$$








000
FXHW60 PHFO 270630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS WEAK THROUGH MONDAY...ALLOWING LOCAL NIGHTTIME
LAND BREEZES AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO FORM...MAINLY ACROSS
LEEWARD AREAS. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK AS THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS MOVE WEST OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 43N 156W...OR ABOUT 1530 MILES NORTH OF
HONOLULU...IS DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL
NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF LATITUDE 50N. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FAR SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE IS BEING DISRUPTED BY WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS
TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ONE
TROUGH APPEARS TO BE NEAR LONGITUDE 162W...OR ABOUT 180 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF LIHUE. ANOTHER ONE MAY BE NEAR LONGITUDE 149W...OR
ABOUT 450 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF HILO. THESE FEATURES HAVE BEEN
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...SO THEY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE TRADE
WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW LOCAL
NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP MAINLY
OVER LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE INDIVIDUAL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

ALOFT...WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE RELATIVELY STABLE. THERE
ARE ALSO LOCALIZED POCKETS OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ VALUES
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING. HOWEVER...THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BALLOON SOUNDINGS SHOWED PW OF 1.1 INCHES AT LIHUE AND 1.4 INCHES AT
HILO. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW LIMITED
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE ISLANDS. THE MAIN AREA
OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS ADJACENT TO THE
WINDWARD AND SOUTHEASTERN BIG ISLAND. THERE IS ALSO RESIDUAL
CLOUDINESS OVER SOME LEEWARD SECTIONS OF SOME THE ISLANDS...BUT THIS
IS FADING AS LOCAL NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES DEVELOP AFTER DUSK THIS
EVENING. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WINDWARD COASTAL WATERS
AND MOVE OVER WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES OF A FEW OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE TRADES WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH
MONDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOCAL SEA BREEZES FORM. IN ADDITION...THE
LIGHT TRADE WINDS MAY CARRY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. WHILE SHOWER AREAS MAY VARY IN SIZE
DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF DAY...NO HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST OF THE
ISLANDS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE
ISLANDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTH OF THE AREA REASSERTS CONTROL
OVER THE LOCAL WIND FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW A MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TRADE
WIND FLOW TO BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ALOHA STATE. THIS
SHOULD ALSO RETURN A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. NO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...SINCE THE FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING REMAINS ABOVE THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE END
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SERIES OF TROUGHS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS...WILL KEEP A
LIGHT WIND REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY. AS A
RESULT...OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES AND DAYTIME SEAS BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS TONIGHT...AND SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS COULD
IMPACT PHTO AND PHLI. ON MONDAY...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FOCUS
PRIMARILY ACROSS INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS...AND PHNY APPEARS MOST
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS. OVERALL HOWEVER...GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL KEEP SURF HEIGHTS
NEAR THE HIGH SURF WARNING CRITERIA ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES OF ALL
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT IS ALSO IN EFFECT INDICATING THIS SWELL WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO GENERATE MODERATE SURGES IN SOUTH FACING HARBORS...AS
WELL AS SOME WAVES BREAKING IN AND NEAR CHANNEL ENTRANCES. THE MOST
RECENT READINGS FROM THE BARBERS POINT BUOY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 5.5 FEET WITH A DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS
FROM 190 TO 200 DEGREES.

THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL SHOWS ANOTHER SMALL PULSE OF REINFORCING
ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE REACHING THE ISLANDS ON MONDAY
AND BLENDING IN WITH THE EARLIER SOUTH SWELL. AS A RESULT...SURF
HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLD
ALONG ALL SHORES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
TUESDAY. THEREFORE...SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...MODEL
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT TRADE WIND SPEEDS MAY BE NEAR THE SCA CRITERIA
IN THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS ADJACENT TO THE BIG ISLAND AND THE
ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. IF
FUTURE MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS TREND...SCA CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST STARTING SOMETIME DURING
MID-WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH FACING
SHORES OF ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

&&

$$













000
FXHW60 PHFO 270630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS WEAK THROUGH MONDAY...ALLOWING LOCAL NIGHTTIME
LAND BREEZES AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO FORM...MAINLY ACROSS
LEEWARD AREAS. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK AS THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS MOVE WEST OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 43N 156W...OR ABOUT 1530 MILES NORTH OF
HONOLULU...IS DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL
NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF LATITUDE 50N. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FAR SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE IS BEING DISRUPTED BY WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS
TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ONE
TROUGH APPEARS TO BE NEAR LONGITUDE 162W...OR ABOUT 180 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF LIHUE. ANOTHER ONE MAY BE NEAR LONGITUDE 149W...OR
ABOUT 450 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF HILO. THESE FEATURES HAVE BEEN
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...SO THEY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE TRADE
WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW LOCAL
NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP MAINLY
OVER LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE INDIVIDUAL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

ALOFT...WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE RELATIVELY STABLE. THERE
ARE ALSO LOCALIZED POCKETS OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ VALUES
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING. HOWEVER...THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BALLOON SOUNDINGS SHOWED PW OF 1.1 INCHES AT LIHUE AND 1.4 INCHES AT
HILO. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW LIMITED
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE ISLANDS. THE MAIN AREA
OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS ADJACENT TO THE
WINDWARD AND SOUTHEASTERN BIG ISLAND. THERE IS ALSO RESIDUAL
CLOUDINESS OVER SOME LEEWARD SECTIONS OF SOME THE ISLANDS...BUT THIS
IS FADING AS LOCAL NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES DEVELOP AFTER DUSK THIS
EVENING. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WINDWARD COASTAL WATERS
AND MOVE OVER WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES OF A FEW OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE TRADES WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH
MONDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOCAL SEA BREEZES FORM. IN ADDITION...THE
LIGHT TRADE WINDS MAY CARRY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. WHILE SHOWER AREAS MAY VARY IN SIZE
DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF DAY...NO HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST OF THE
ISLANDS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE
ISLANDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTH OF THE AREA REASSERTS CONTROL
OVER THE LOCAL WIND FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW A MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TRADE
WIND FLOW TO BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ALOHA STATE. THIS
SHOULD ALSO RETURN A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. NO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...SINCE THE FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING REMAINS ABOVE THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE END
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SERIES OF TROUGHS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS...WILL KEEP A
LIGHT WIND REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY. AS A
RESULT...OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES AND DAYTIME SEAS BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS TONIGHT...AND SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS COULD
IMPACT PHTO AND PHLI. ON MONDAY...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FOCUS
PRIMARILY ACROSS INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS...AND PHNY APPEARS MOST
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS. OVERALL HOWEVER...GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL KEEP SURF HEIGHTS
NEAR THE HIGH SURF WARNING CRITERIA ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES OF ALL
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT IS ALSO IN EFFECT INDICATING THIS SWELL WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO GENERATE MODERATE SURGES IN SOUTH FACING HARBORS...AS
WELL AS SOME WAVES BREAKING IN AND NEAR CHANNEL ENTRANCES. THE MOST
RECENT READINGS FROM THE BARBERS POINT BUOY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 5.5 FEET WITH A DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS
FROM 190 TO 200 DEGREES.

THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL SHOWS ANOTHER SMALL PULSE OF REINFORCING
ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE REACHING THE ISLANDS ON MONDAY
AND BLENDING IN WITH THE EARLIER SOUTH SWELL. AS A RESULT...SURF
HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLD
ALONG ALL SHORES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
TUESDAY. THEREFORE...SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...MODEL
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT TRADE WIND SPEEDS MAY BE NEAR THE SCA CRITERIA
IN THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS ADJACENT TO THE BIG ISLAND AND THE
ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. IF
FUTURE MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS TREND...SCA CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST STARTING SOMETIME DURING
MID-WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH FACING
SHORES OF ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

&&

$$












000
FXHW60 PHFO 270130
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF WEAK TROUGHS PASSING EITHER NORTH OF OR ACROSS THE ISLANDS
WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS WEAK THROUGH MONDAY...ALLOWING LAND AND SEA
BREEZES TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS. STRONGER TRADE WINDS
WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGHS MOVE WEST OF
THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE LATE THIS
MORNING. A 1032 MB HIGH FAR NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS
THE LARGEST WEATHER FEATURE IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF
50N. HIGHS LIKE THIS...ANCHORING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...USUALLY ACT
TO KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEP ENOUGH ACROSS LOCAL WATERS TO
PROVIDE STEADY MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE FLOW.
HOWEVER...SMALLER SURFACE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN TRADE FLOW BETWEEN
THE HIGH AND THE ISLANDS CAN FLATTEN THE GRADIENT AND CAUSE TRADE
WINDS TO WEAKEN OR...OCCASIONALLY...CEASE ALTOGETHER UNTIL THE
TROUGHS MOVE AWAY. THIS IS WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW AS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. A SECOND TROUGH...THE
ILL-DEFINED REMNANT OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE...LIES ABOUT
500 TO 600 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. BOTH TROUGHS ARE MOVING
WESTWARD AND BOTH WILL WEAKEN OUR TRADE FLOW AS THEY PASS BY.

MODELS SHOW OUR TRADES WILL STAY WEAK...BUT NOT COLLAPSE. THIS MEANS
THAT WE CAN EXPECT A MIX OF LEEWARD LIGHT CONVECTIVE AND WINDWARD
LIGHT TRADE WIND WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER TO WINDWARD AREAS...WHILE DAYTIME
HEATING ADDS SEA BREEZES AND AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS. WHILE SHOWER AREAS MAY VARY IN SIZE DEPENDING
ON THE TIME OF DAY...NO HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST.

BOTH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL PASS WEST OF THE ISLANDS BY
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING THE HIGH FARTHER TO THE NORTH TO REASSERT
CONTROL OVER LOCAL WIND FLOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STEEPEN AND
TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN TO AT LEAST MODERATE STRENGTH. A TRADE WIND
DISTRIBUTION OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS...WILL REPLACE THE MIXED PATTERN EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND ANY ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS TO IMPACT
MAINLY INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ONSHORE IN WINDWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL. PHNY HAS
BEEN SEEING MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS.

NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL KEEP SURF AT WARNING LEVELS ALONG
ALL SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER PULSE OF ENERGY REACHING THE ISLANDS
ON MONDAY AND BLENDING IN WITH THE EARLIER SOUTH SWELL. THUS...THE
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES
OF ALL ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...KINEL










000
FXHW60 PHFO 270130
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF WEAK TROUGHS PASSING EITHER NORTH OF OR ACROSS THE ISLANDS
WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS WEAK THROUGH MONDAY...ALLOWING LAND AND SEA
BREEZES TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS. STRONGER TRADE WINDS
WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGHS MOVE WEST OF
THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE LATE THIS
MORNING. A 1032 MB HIGH FAR NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS
THE LARGEST WEATHER FEATURE IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF
50N. HIGHS LIKE THIS...ANCHORING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...USUALLY ACT
TO KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEP ENOUGH ACROSS LOCAL WATERS TO
PROVIDE STEADY MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE FLOW.
HOWEVER...SMALLER SURFACE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN TRADE FLOW BETWEEN
THE HIGH AND THE ISLANDS CAN FLATTEN THE GRADIENT AND CAUSE TRADE
WINDS TO WEAKEN OR...OCCASIONALLY...CEASE ALTOGETHER UNTIL THE
TROUGHS MOVE AWAY. THIS IS WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW AS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. A SECOND TROUGH...THE
ILL-DEFINED REMNANT OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE...LIES ABOUT
500 TO 600 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. BOTH TROUGHS ARE MOVING
WESTWARD AND BOTH WILL WEAKEN OUR TRADE FLOW AS THEY PASS BY.

MODELS SHOW OUR TRADES WILL STAY WEAK...BUT NOT COLLAPSE. THIS MEANS
THAT WE CAN EXPECT A MIX OF LEEWARD LIGHT CONVECTIVE AND WINDWARD
LIGHT TRADE WIND WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER TO WINDWARD AREAS...WHILE DAYTIME
HEATING ADDS SEA BREEZES AND AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS. WHILE SHOWER AREAS MAY VARY IN SIZE DEPENDING
ON THE TIME OF DAY...NO HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST.

BOTH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL PASS WEST OF THE ISLANDS BY
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING THE HIGH FARTHER TO THE NORTH TO REASSERT
CONTROL OVER LOCAL WIND FLOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STEEPEN AND
TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN TO AT LEAST MODERATE STRENGTH. A TRADE WIND
DISTRIBUTION OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS...WILL REPLACE THE MIXED PATTERN EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND ANY ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS TO IMPACT
MAINLY INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ONSHORE IN WINDWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL. PHNY HAS
BEEN SEEING MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS.

NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL KEEP SURF AT WARNING LEVELS ALONG
ALL SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER PULSE OF ENERGY REACHING THE ISLANDS
ON MONDAY AND BLENDING IN WITH THE EARLIER SOUTH SWELL. THUS...THE
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES
OF ALL ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...KINEL









000
FXHW60 PHFO 261930
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF WEAK TROUGHS PASSING EITHER NORTH OF OR ACROSS THE ISLANDS
WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS WEAK THROUGH MONDAY...ALLOWING LAND AND SEA
BREEZES TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS. STRONGER TRADE WINDS
WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGHS MOVE WEST OF
THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1032 MB HIGH FAR NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS THE LARGEST
WEATHER FEATURE IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF 50N. HIGHS
LIKE THIS...ANCHORING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...USUALLY ACT TO KEEP
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEP ENOUGH ACROSS LOCAL WATERS TO PROVIDE
STEADY MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE FLOW. HOWEVER...SMALLER
SURFACE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN TRADE FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE
ISLANDS CAN FLATTEN THE GRADIENT AND CAUSE TRADE WINDS TO WEAKEN
OR...OCCASIONALLY...CEASE ALTOGETHER UNTIL THE TROUGHS MOVE AWAY.
THIS IS WHAT IS HAPPENING TODAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. ANOTHER TROUGH...THE REMNANT OF FORMER
TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE...LIES ABOUT 600 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE. BOTH TROUGHS ARE MOVING WESTWARD AND BOTH WILL WEAKEN OUR
TRADE FLOW AS THEY PASS BY.

MODELS SHOW OUR TRADES WILL STAY WEAK...BUT NOT COLLAPSE. THIS MEANS
THAT WE CAN EXPECT A MIX OF LEEWARD LIGHT CONVECTIVE AND WINDWARD
LIGHT TRADE WIND WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER TO WINDWARD AREAS...WHILE DAYTIME
HEATING ADDS SEA BREEZES AND AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS. WHILE SHOWER AREAS MAY VARY IN SIZE DEPENDING
ON THE TIME OF DAY...NO HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST.

BOTH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL PASS WEST OF THE ISLANDS BY
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING THE HIGH FARTHER TO THE NORTH TO REASSERT
CONTROL OVER LOCAL WIND FLOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STEEPEN AND
TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN TO AT LEAST MODERATE STRENGTH. A TRADE WIND
DISTRIBUTION OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS...WILL REPLACE THE MIXED PATTERN EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES ARE EXPECTED AT MANY
OF THE TAF SITES. EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO IMPACT MAINLY
INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE LIGHT TRADE
WIND FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS ONSHORE IN
WINDWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL. PHNY WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS
TODAY...ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF
ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS.

NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL KEEP SURF AT WARNING LEVELS ALONG
ALL SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER PULSE OF ENERGY REACHING THE ISLANDS
ON MONDAY AND BLENDING IN WITH THE EARLIER SOUTH SWELL. THUS...THE
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES
OF ALL ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...KINEL








000
FXHW60 PHFO 261930
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF WEAK TROUGHS PASSING EITHER NORTH OF OR ACROSS THE ISLANDS
WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS WEAK THROUGH MONDAY...ALLOWING LAND AND SEA
BREEZES TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS. STRONGER TRADE WINDS
WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGHS MOVE WEST OF
THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1032 MB HIGH FAR NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS THE LARGEST
WEATHER FEATURE IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF 50N. HIGHS
LIKE THIS...ANCHORING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...USUALLY ACT TO KEEP
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEP ENOUGH ACROSS LOCAL WATERS TO PROVIDE
STEADY MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE FLOW. HOWEVER...SMALLER
SURFACE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN TRADE FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE
ISLANDS CAN FLATTEN THE GRADIENT AND CAUSE TRADE WINDS TO WEAKEN
OR...OCCASIONALLY...CEASE ALTOGETHER UNTIL THE TROUGHS MOVE AWAY.
THIS IS WHAT IS HAPPENING TODAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. ANOTHER TROUGH...THE REMNANT OF FORMER
TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE...LIES ABOUT 600 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE. BOTH TROUGHS ARE MOVING WESTWARD AND BOTH WILL WEAKEN OUR
TRADE FLOW AS THEY PASS BY.

MODELS SHOW OUR TRADES WILL STAY WEAK...BUT NOT COLLAPSE. THIS MEANS
THAT WE CAN EXPECT A MIX OF LEEWARD LIGHT CONVECTIVE AND WINDWARD
LIGHT TRADE WIND WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER TO WINDWARD AREAS...WHILE DAYTIME
HEATING ADDS SEA BREEZES AND AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS. WHILE SHOWER AREAS MAY VARY IN SIZE DEPENDING
ON THE TIME OF DAY...NO HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST.

BOTH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL PASS WEST OF THE ISLANDS BY
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING THE HIGH FARTHER TO THE NORTH TO REASSERT
CONTROL OVER LOCAL WIND FLOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STEEPEN AND
TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN TO AT LEAST MODERATE STRENGTH. A TRADE WIND
DISTRIBUTION OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS...WILL REPLACE THE MIXED PATTERN EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES ARE EXPECTED AT MANY
OF THE TAF SITES. EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO IMPACT MAINLY
INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE LIGHT TRADE
WIND FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS ONSHORE IN
WINDWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL. PHNY WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS
TODAY...ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF
ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS.

NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL KEEP SURF AT WARNING LEVELS ALONG
ALL SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER PULSE OF ENERGY REACHING THE ISLANDS
ON MONDAY AND BLENDING IN WITH THE EARLIER SOUTH SWELL. THUS...THE
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES
OF ALL ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...KINEL









000
FXHW60 PHFO 261633 AAB
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
640 AM HST SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
A HIGH SURF WARNING.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK TRADES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THROUGH MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS
OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH SEA
BREEZES BRINGING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD
AREAS. HOWEVER...THE TRADES SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES. A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OBSERVED CENTERED FAR N OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...WHILE A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS SLOWLY MOVING W JUST
TO THE N OF OAHU. MEANWHILE...THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL
CYCLONE ENRIQUE ARE LOCATED ABOUT 660 MILES NE OF THE BIG ISLAND AND
GRADUALLY MOVING W TOWARDS THE AREA. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH AND
THE PASSAGE OF THE REMNANTS OF ENRIQUE WILL KEEP DISRUPTING THE
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY AND MOST LIKELY THROUGH
LATE MON.

A FEW PASSING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OVER WINDWARD AREAS OF OAHU AND KAUAI...WITH RADAR DATA
DEPICTING ONLY SMALL/CELLULAR TYPE SHOWERS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
ASSOCIATED RAIN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION HAS BEEN THE WINDWARD AND SE
SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE A LARGER FIELD OF SHOWERS...ARRANGED
MAINLY IN NARROW BANDS...HAVE BEEN STREAMING FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS. AS BEFORE...RADAR DATA HAS SHOWN NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
WITH ANY OF THESE FEATURES. HOWEVER...12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM HILO
AND LIHUE SHOW WEAKENING AND HIGHER INVERSIONS...BETWEEN 10 TO 11
THOUSAND FEET...ALONG WITH INCREASING PWATS UP TO 1.6 INCHES IN THE
HILO SOUNDING. THUS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

FOR TODAY...LATEST LOCAL WRF MODEL CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MORE
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SEABREEZE ACTIVITY WITH GREATER CLOUD BUILDUPS
AND SHOWERS. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE PASSAGE
OF THE REMNANTS OF ENRIQUE...FURTHER WEAKENING THE TRADES AND
SUPPORTING SEABREEZES AND SHOWERS THROUGH MON. MEANWHILE...WINDWARD
AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SINCE THE WEAK TRADES SHOULD STILL
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS.

BY TUE...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO A MORE
TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME AS THE REMNANTS OF ENRIQUE CLEAR THE AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO BECOME STRONGER AS THE SFC
HIGH N OF THE ISLANDS INTENSIFIES. MODELS ALSO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE SE...WITH STRONGER
INVERSIONS PROVIDING FOR A MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE STATE.
THIS TRADE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH BY TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS TODAY...KEEPING A LIGHT WIND REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES AND
DAYTIME SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED AT MANY OF THE TAF SITES. EXPECT
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO IMPACT MAINLY INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING
A FEW SHOWERS ONSHORE IN WINDWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL. PHNY WILL
LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS AFTER 20Z TODAY...ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS. NO AIRMETS ARE
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
SURF CAMS AND BUOY DATA SHOW SUFFICIENT SOUTH SWELL ENERGY TO
UPGRADE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY TO A HIGH SURF WARNING. THE LARGE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL KEEP SURF AT WARNING LEVELS ALONG ALL
SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE STARTING TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER PULSE OF ENERGY REACHING THE
ISLANDS ON MONDAY AND BLENDING IN WITH THE EARLIER SOUTH SWELL.
THUS...THE SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES
OF ALL ISLANDS.

&&

$$

UPDATE...POWELL/BURKE
DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JELSEMA







000
FXHW60 PHFO 261633 AAB
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
640 AM HST SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
A HIGH SURF WARNING.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK TRADES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THROUGH MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS
OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH SEA
BREEZES BRINGING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD
AREAS. HOWEVER...THE TRADES SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES. A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OBSERVED CENTERED FAR N OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...WHILE A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS SLOWLY MOVING W JUST
TO THE N OF OAHU. MEANWHILE...THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL
CYCLONE ENRIQUE ARE LOCATED ABOUT 660 MILES NE OF THE BIG ISLAND AND
GRADUALLY MOVING W TOWARDS THE AREA. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH AND
THE PASSAGE OF THE REMNANTS OF ENRIQUE WILL KEEP DISRUPTING THE
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY AND MOST LIKELY THROUGH
LATE MON.

A FEW PASSING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OVER WINDWARD AREAS OF OAHU AND KAUAI...WITH RADAR DATA
DEPICTING ONLY SMALL/CELLULAR TYPE SHOWERS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
ASSOCIATED RAIN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION HAS BEEN THE WINDWARD AND SE
SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE A LARGER FIELD OF SHOWERS...ARRANGED
MAINLY IN NARROW BANDS...HAVE BEEN STREAMING FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS. AS BEFORE...RADAR DATA HAS SHOWN NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
WITH ANY OF THESE FEATURES. HOWEVER...12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM HILO
AND LIHUE SHOW WEAKENING AND HIGHER INVERSIONS...BETWEEN 10 TO 11
THOUSAND FEET...ALONG WITH INCREASING PWATS UP TO 1.6 INCHES IN THE
HILO SOUNDING. THUS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

FOR TODAY...LATEST LOCAL WRF MODEL CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MORE
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SEABREEZE ACTIVITY WITH GREATER CLOUD BUILDUPS
AND SHOWERS. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE PASSAGE
OF THE REMNANTS OF ENRIQUE...FURTHER WEAKENING THE TRADES AND
SUPPORTING SEABREEZES AND SHOWERS THROUGH MON. MEANWHILE...WINDWARD
AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SINCE THE WEAK TRADES SHOULD STILL
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS.

BY TUE...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO A MORE
TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME AS THE REMNANTS OF ENRIQUE CLEAR THE AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO BECOME STRONGER AS THE SFC
HIGH N OF THE ISLANDS INTENSIFIES. MODELS ALSO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE SE...WITH STRONGER
INVERSIONS PROVIDING FOR A MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE STATE.
THIS TRADE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH BY TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS TODAY...KEEPING A LIGHT WIND REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES AND
DAYTIME SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED AT MANY OF THE TAF SITES. EXPECT
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO IMPACT MAINLY INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING
A FEW SHOWERS ONSHORE IN WINDWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL. PHNY WILL
LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS AFTER 20Z TODAY...ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS. NO AIRMETS ARE
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
SURF CAMS AND BUOY DATA SHOW SUFFICIENT SOUTH SWELL ENERGY TO
UPGRADE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY TO A HIGH SURF WARNING. THE LARGE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL KEEP SURF AT WARNING LEVELS ALONG ALL
SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE STARTING TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER PULSE OF ENERGY REACHING THE
ISLANDS ON MONDAY AND BLENDING IN WITH THE EARLIER SOUTH SWELL.
THUS...THE SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES
OF ALL ISLANDS.

&&

$$

UPDATE...POWELL/BURKE
DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JELSEMA








000
FXHW60 PHFO 261633 AAB
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
640 AM HST SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
A HIGH SURF WARNING.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK TRADES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THROUGH MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS
OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH SEA
BREEZES BRINGING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD
AREAS. HOWEVER...THE TRADES SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES. A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OBSERVED CENTERED FAR N OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...WHILE A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS SLOWLY MOVING W JUST
TO THE N OF OAHU. MEANWHILE...THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL
CYCLONE ENRIQUE ARE LOCATED ABOUT 660 MILES NE OF THE BIG ISLAND AND
GRADUALLY MOVING W TOWARDS THE AREA. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH AND
THE PASSAGE OF THE REMNANTS OF ENRIQUE WILL KEEP DISRUPTING THE
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY AND MOST LIKELY THROUGH
LATE MON.

A FEW PASSING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OVER WINDWARD AREAS OF OAHU AND KAUAI...WITH RADAR DATA
DEPICTING ONLY SMALL/CELLULAR TYPE SHOWERS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
ASSOCIATED RAIN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION HAS BEEN THE WINDWARD AND SE
SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE A LARGER FIELD OF SHOWERS...ARRANGED
MAINLY IN NARROW BANDS...HAVE BEEN STREAMING FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS. AS BEFORE...RADAR DATA HAS SHOWN NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
WITH ANY OF THESE FEATURES. HOWEVER...12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM HILO
AND LIHUE SHOW WEAKENING AND HIGHER INVERSIONS...BETWEEN 10 TO 11
THOUSAND FEET...ALONG WITH INCREASING PWATS UP TO 1.6 INCHES IN THE
HILO SOUNDING. THUS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

FOR TODAY...LATEST LOCAL WRF MODEL CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MORE
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SEABREEZE ACTIVITY WITH GREATER CLOUD BUILDUPS
AND SHOWERS. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE PASSAGE
OF THE REMNANTS OF ENRIQUE...FURTHER WEAKENING THE TRADES AND
SUPPORTING SEABREEZES AND SHOWERS THROUGH MON. MEANWHILE...WINDWARD
AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SINCE THE WEAK TRADES SHOULD STILL
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS.

BY TUE...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO A MORE
TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME AS THE REMNANTS OF ENRIQUE CLEAR THE AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO BECOME STRONGER AS THE SFC
HIGH N OF THE ISLANDS INTENSIFIES. MODELS ALSO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE SE...WITH STRONGER
INVERSIONS PROVIDING FOR A MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE STATE.
THIS TRADE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH BY TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS TODAY...KEEPING A LIGHT WIND REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES AND
DAYTIME SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED AT MANY OF THE TAF SITES. EXPECT
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO IMPACT MAINLY INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING
A FEW SHOWERS ONSHORE IN WINDWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL. PHNY WILL
LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS AFTER 20Z TODAY...ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS. NO AIRMETS ARE
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
SURF CAMS AND BUOY DATA SHOW SUFFICIENT SOUTH SWELL ENERGY TO
UPGRADE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY TO A HIGH SURF WARNING. THE LARGE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL KEEP SURF AT WARNING LEVELS ALONG ALL
SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE STARTING TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER PULSE OF ENERGY REACHING THE
ISLANDS ON MONDAY AND BLENDING IN WITH THE EARLIER SOUTH SWELL.
THUS...THE SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES
OF ALL ISLANDS.

&&

$$

UPDATE...POWELL/BURKE
DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JELSEMA








000
FXHW60 PHFO 261445 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
440 AM HST SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
SURF ADVISORY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM
HST MONDAY...ALONG WITH EXPECTED LARGER SURF HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 14
FEET TODAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK TRADES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THROUGH MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS
OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH SEA
BREEZES BRINGING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD
AREAS. HOWEVER...THE TRADES SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES. A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OBSERVED CENTERED FAR N OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...WHILE A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS SLOWLY MOVING W JUST
TO THE N OF OAHU. MEANWHILE...THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL
CYCLONE ENRIQUE ARE LOCATED ABOUT 660 MILES NE OF THE BIG ISLAND AND
GRADUALLY MOVING W TOWARDS THE AREA. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH AND
THE PASSAGE OF THE REMNANTS OF ENRIQUE WILL KEEP DISRUPTING THE
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY AND MOST LIKELY THROUGH
LATE MON.

A FEW PASSING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OVER WINDWARD AREAS OF OAHU AND KAUAI...WITH RADAR DATA
DEPICTING ONLY SMALL/CELLULAR TYPE SHOWERS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
ASSOCIATED RAIN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION HAS BEEN THE WINDWARD AND SE
SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE A LARGER FIELD OF SHOWERS...ARRANGED
MAINLY IN NARROW BANDS...HAVE BEEN STREAMING FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS. AS BEFORE...RADAR DATA HAS SHOWN NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
WITH ANY OF THESE FEATURES. HOWEVER...12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM HILO
AND LIHUE SHOW WEAKENING AND HIGHER INVERSIONS...BETWEEN 10 TO 11
THOUSAND FEET...ALONG WITH INCREASING PWATS UP TO 1.6 INCHES IN THE
HILO SOUNDING. THUS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

FOR TODAY...LATEST LOCAL WRF MODEL CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MORE
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SEABREEZE ACTIVITY WITH GREATER CLOUD BUILDUPS
AND SHOWERS. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE PASSAGE
OF THE REMNANTS OF ENRIQUE...FURTHER WEAKENING THE TRADES AND
SUPPORTING SEABREEZES AND SHOWERS THROUGH MON. MEANWHILE...WINDWARD
AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SINCE THE WEAK TRADES SHOULD STILL
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS.

BY TUE...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO A MORE
TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME AS THE REMNANTS OF ENRIQUE CLEAR THE AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO BECOME STRONGER AS THE SFC
HIGH N OF THE ISLANDS INTENSIFIES. MODELS ALSO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE SE...WITH STRONGER
INVERSIONS PROVIDING FOR A MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE STATE.
THIS TRADE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH BY TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS TODAY...KEEPING A LIGHT WIND REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES AND
DAYTIME SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED AT MANY OF THE TAF SITES. EXPECT
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO IMPACT MAINLY INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING
A FEW SHOWERS ONSHORE IN WINDWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL. PHNY WILL
LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS AFTER 20Z TODAY...ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS. NO AIRMETS ARE
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE TO LARGE SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
SURF AT ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG ALL SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE STARTING TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. BASED ON LATEST BUOY
REPORTS...THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY.
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER PULSE OF ENERGY REACHING THE ISLANDS ON MONDAY
AND BLENDING IN WITH THE EARLIER SOUTH SWELL. THUS...THE SURF ALONG
SOUTH FACING SHORES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY NOW UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES
OF ALL ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JELSEMA












000
FXHW60 PHFO 261445 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
440 AM HST SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
SURF ADVISORY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM
HST MONDAY...ALONG WITH EXPECTED LARGER SURF HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 14
FEET TODAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK TRADES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THROUGH MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS
OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH SEA
BREEZES BRINGING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD
AREAS. HOWEVER...THE TRADES SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES. A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OBSERVED CENTERED FAR N OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...WHILE A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS SLOWLY MOVING W JUST
TO THE N OF OAHU. MEANWHILE...THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL
CYCLONE ENRIQUE ARE LOCATED ABOUT 660 MILES NE OF THE BIG ISLAND AND
GRADUALLY MOVING W TOWARDS THE AREA. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH AND
THE PASSAGE OF THE REMNANTS OF ENRIQUE WILL KEEP DISRUPTING THE
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY AND MOST LIKELY THROUGH
LATE MON.

A FEW PASSING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OVER WINDWARD AREAS OF OAHU AND KAUAI...WITH RADAR DATA
DEPICTING ONLY SMALL/CELLULAR TYPE SHOWERS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
ASSOCIATED RAIN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION HAS BEEN THE WINDWARD AND SE
SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE A LARGER FIELD OF SHOWERS...ARRANGED
MAINLY IN NARROW BANDS...HAVE BEEN STREAMING FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS. AS BEFORE...RADAR DATA HAS SHOWN NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
WITH ANY OF THESE FEATURES. HOWEVER...12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM HILO
AND LIHUE SHOW WEAKENING AND HIGHER INVERSIONS...BETWEEN 10 TO 11
THOUSAND FEET...ALONG WITH INCREASING PWATS UP TO 1.6 INCHES IN THE
HILO SOUNDING. THUS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

FOR TODAY...LATEST LOCAL WRF MODEL CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MORE
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SEABREEZE ACTIVITY WITH GREATER CLOUD BUILDUPS
AND SHOWERS. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE PASSAGE
OF THE REMNANTS OF ENRIQUE...FURTHER WEAKENING THE TRADES AND
SUPPORTING SEABREEZES AND SHOWERS THROUGH MON. MEANWHILE...WINDWARD
AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SINCE THE WEAK TRADES SHOULD STILL
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS.

BY TUE...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO A MORE
TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME AS THE REMNANTS OF ENRIQUE CLEAR THE AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO BECOME STRONGER AS THE SFC
HIGH N OF THE ISLANDS INTENSIFIES. MODELS ALSO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE SE...WITH STRONGER
INVERSIONS PROVIDING FOR A MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE STATE.
THIS TRADE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH BY TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS TODAY...KEEPING A LIGHT WIND REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES AND
DAYTIME SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED AT MANY OF THE TAF SITES. EXPECT
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO IMPACT MAINLY INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING
A FEW SHOWERS ONSHORE IN WINDWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL. PHNY WILL
LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS AFTER 20Z TODAY...ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS. NO AIRMETS ARE
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE TO LARGE SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
SURF AT ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG ALL SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE STARTING TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. BASED ON LATEST BUOY
REPORTS...THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY.
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER PULSE OF ENERGY REACHING THE ISLANDS ON MONDAY
AND BLENDING IN WITH THE EARLIER SOUTH SWELL. THUS...THE SURF ALONG
SOUTH FACING SHORES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY NOW UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES
OF ALL ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JELSEMA











000
FXHW60 PHFO 261445 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
440 AM HST SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
SURF ADVISORY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM
HST MONDAY...ALONG WITH EXPECTED LARGER SURF HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 14
FEET TODAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK TRADES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THROUGH MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS
OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH SEA
BREEZES BRINGING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD
AREAS. HOWEVER...THE TRADES SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES. A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OBSERVED CENTERED FAR N OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...WHILE A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS SLOWLY MOVING W JUST
TO THE N OF OAHU. MEANWHILE...THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL
CYCLONE ENRIQUE ARE LOCATED ABOUT 660 MILES NE OF THE BIG ISLAND AND
GRADUALLY MOVING W TOWARDS THE AREA. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH AND
THE PASSAGE OF THE REMNANTS OF ENRIQUE WILL KEEP DISRUPTING THE
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY AND MOST LIKELY THROUGH
LATE MON.

A FEW PASSING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OVER WINDWARD AREAS OF OAHU AND KAUAI...WITH RADAR DATA
DEPICTING ONLY SMALL/CELLULAR TYPE SHOWERS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
ASSOCIATED RAIN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION HAS BEEN THE WINDWARD AND SE
SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE A LARGER FIELD OF SHOWERS...ARRANGED
MAINLY IN NARROW BANDS...HAVE BEEN STREAMING FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS. AS BEFORE...RADAR DATA HAS SHOWN NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
WITH ANY OF THESE FEATURES. HOWEVER...12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM HILO
AND LIHUE SHOW WEAKENING AND HIGHER INVERSIONS...BETWEEN 10 TO 11
THOUSAND FEET...ALONG WITH INCREASING PWATS UP TO 1.6 INCHES IN THE
HILO SOUNDING. THUS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

FOR TODAY...LATEST LOCAL WRF MODEL CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MORE
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SEABREEZE ACTIVITY WITH GREATER CLOUD BUILDUPS
AND SHOWERS. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE PASSAGE
OF THE REMNANTS OF ENRIQUE...FURTHER WEAKENING THE TRADES AND
SUPPORTING SEABREEZES AND SHOWERS THROUGH MON. MEANWHILE...WINDWARD
AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SINCE THE WEAK TRADES SHOULD STILL
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS.

BY TUE...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO A MORE
TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME AS THE REMNANTS OF ENRIQUE CLEAR THE AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO BECOME STRONGER AS THE SFC
HIGH N OF THE ISLANDS INTENSIFIES. MODELS ALSO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE SE...WITH STRONGER
INVERSIONS PROVIDING FOR A MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE STATE.
THIS TRADE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH BY TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS TODAY...KEEPING A LIGHT WIND REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES AND
DAYTIME SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED AT MANY OF THE TAF SITES. EXPECT
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO IMPACT MAINLY INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING
A FEW SHOWERS ONSHORE IN WINDWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL. PHNY WILL
LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS AFTER 20Z TODAY...ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS. NO AIRMETS ARE
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE TO LARGE SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
SURF AT ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG ALL SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE STARTING TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. BASED ON LATEST BUOY
REPORTS...THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY.
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER PULSE OF ENERGY REACHING THE ISLANDS ON MONDAY
AND BLENDING IN WITH THE EARLIER SOUTH SWELL. THUS...THE SURF ALONG
SOUTH FACING SHORES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY NOW UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES
OF ALL ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JELSEMA











000
FXHW60 PHFO 261445 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
440 AM HST SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
SURF ADVISORY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM
HST MONDAY...ALONG WITH EXPECTED LARGER SURF HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 14
FEET TODAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK TRADES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THROUGH MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS
OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH SEA
BREEZES BRINGING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD
AREAS. HOWEVER...THE TRADES SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES. A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OBSERVED CENTERED FAR N OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...WHILE A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS SLOWLY MOVING W JUST
TO THE N OF OAHU. MEANWHILE...THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL
CYCLONE ENRIQUE ARE LOCATED ABOUT 660 MILES NE OF THE BIG ISLAND AND
GRADUALLY MOVING W TOWARDS THE AREA. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH AND
THE PASSAGE OF THE REMNANTS OF ENRIQUE WILL KEEP DISRUPTING THE
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY AND MOST LIKELY THROUGH
LATE MON.

A FEW PASSING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OVER WINDWARD AREAS OF OAHU AND KAUAI...WITH RADAR DATA
DEPICTING ONLY SMALL/CELLULAR TYPE SHOWERS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
ASSOCIATED RAIN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION HAS BEEN THE WINDWARD AND SE
SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE A LARGER FIELD OF SHOWERS...ARRANGED
MAINLY IN NARROW BANDS...HAVE BEEN STREAMING FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS. AS BEFORE...RADAR DATA HAS SHOWN NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
WITH ANY OF THESE FEATURES. HOWEVER...12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM HILO
AND LIHUE SHOW WEAKENING AND HIGHER INVERSIONS...BETWEEN 10 TO 11
THOUSAND FEET...ALONG WITH INCREASING PWATS UP TO 1.6 INCHES IN THE
HILO SOUNDING. THUS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

FOR TODAY...LATEST LOCAL WRF MODEL CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MORE
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SEABREEZE ACTIVITY WITH GREATER CLOUD BUILDUPS
AND SHOWERS. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE PASSAGE
OF THE REMNANTS OF ENRIQUE...FURTHER WEAKENING THE TRADES AND
SUPPORTING SEABREEZES AND SHOWERS THROUGH MON. MEANWHILE...WINDWARD
AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SINCE THE WEAK TRADES SHOULD STILL
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS.

BY TUE...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO A MORE
TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME AS THE REMNANTS OF ENRIQUE CLEAR THE AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO BECOME STRONGER AS THE SFC
HIGH N OF THE ISLANDS INTENSIFIES. MODELS ALSO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE SE...WITH STRONGER
INVERSIONS PROVIDING FOR A MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE STATE.
THIS TRADE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH BY TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS TODAY...KEEPING A LIGHT WIND REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES AND
DAYTIME SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED AT MANY OF THE TAF SITES. EXPECT
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO IMPACT MAINLY INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING
A FEW SHOWERS ONSHORE IN WINDWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL. PHNY WILL
LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS AFTER 20Z TODAY...ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS. NO AIRMETS ARE
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE TO LARGE SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
SURF AT ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG ALL SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE STARTING TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. BASED ON LATEST BUOY
REPORTS...THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY.
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER PULSE OF ENERGY REACHING THE ISLANDS ON MONDAY
AND BLENDING IN WITH THE EARLIER SOUTH SWELL. THUS...THE SURF ALONG
SOUTH FACING SHORES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY NOW UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES
OF ALL ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JELSEMA












000
FXHW60 PHFO 261336
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK TRADES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THROUGH MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS
OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH SEA
BREEZES BRINGING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD
AREAS. HOWEVER...THE TRADES SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES. A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OBSERVED CENTERED FAR N OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...WHILE A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS SLOWLY MOVING W JUST
TO THE N OF OAHU. MEANWHILE...THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL
CYCLONE ENRIQUE ARE LOCATED ABOUT 660 MILES NE OF THE BIG ISLAND AND
GRADUALLY MOVING W TOWARDS THE AREA. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH AND
THE PASSAGE OF THE REMNANTS OF ENRIQUE WILL KEEP DISRUPTING THE
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY AND MOST LIKELY THROUGH
LATE MON.

A FEW PASSING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OVER WINDWARD AREAS OF OAHU AND KAUAI...WITH RADAR DATA
DEPICTING ONLY SMALL/CELLULAR TYPE SHOWERS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
ASSOCIATED RAIN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION HAS BEEN THE WINDWARD AND SE
SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE A LARGER FIELD OF SHOWERS...ARRANGED
MAINLY IN NARROW BANDS...HAVE BEEN STREAMING FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS. AS BEFORE...RADAR DATA HAS SHOWN NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
WITH ANY OF THESE FEATURES. HOWEVER...12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM HILO
AND LIHUE SHOW WEAKENING AND HIGHER INVERSIONS...BETWEEN 10 TO 11
THOUSAND FEET...ALONG WITH INCREASING PWATS UP TO 1.6 INCHES IN THE
HILO SOUNDING. THUS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

FOR TODAY...LATEST LOCAL WRF MODEL CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MORE
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SEABREEZE ACTIVITY WITH GREATER CLOUD BUILDUPS
AND SHOWERS. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE PASSAGE
OF THE REMNANTS OF ENRIQUE...FURTHER WEAKENING THE TRADES AND
SUPPORTING SEABREEZES AND SHOWERS THROUGH MON. MEANWHILE...WINDWARD
AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SINCE THE WEAK TRADES SHOULD STILL
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS.

BY TUE...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO A MORE
TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME AS THE REMNANTS OF ENRIQUE CLEAR THE AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO BECOME STRONGER AS THE SFC
HIGH N OF THE ISLANDS INTENSIFIES. MODELS ALSO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE SE...WITH STRONGER
INVERSIONS PROVIDING FOR A MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE STATE.
THIS TRADE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH BY TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS TODAY...KEEPING A LIGHT WIND REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES AND
DAYTIME SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED AT MANY OF THE TAF SITES. EXPECT
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO IMPACT MAINLY INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING
A FEW SHOWERS ONSHORE IN WINDWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL. PHNY WILL
LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS AFTER 20Z TODAY...ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS. NO AIRMETS ARE
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE TO LARGE SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
SURF AT ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG ALL SOUTH FACING SHORES TODAY BEFORE
STARTING TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. THE CURRENT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM HST MONDAY. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER PULSE OF ENERGY
REACHING THE ISLANDS ON MONDAY AND BLENDING IN WITH THE EARLIER
SOUTH SWELL...WHICH MAY REQUIRE EXTENDING THE ADVISORY THROUGH LATE
MONDAY. THE SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES OF
ALL ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JELSEMA










000
FXHW60 PHFO 261336
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK TRADES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THROUGH MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS
OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH SEA
BREEZES BRINGING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD
AREAS. HOWEVER...THE TRADES SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES. A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OBSERVED CENTERED FAR N OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...WHILE A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS SLOWLY MOVING W JUST
TO THE N OF OAHU. MEANWHILE...THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL
CYCLONE ENRIQUE ARE LOCATED ABOUT 660 MILES NE OF THE BIG ISLAND AND
GRADUALLY MOVING W TOWARDS THE AREA. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH AND
THE PASSAGE OF THE REMNANTS OF ENRIQUE WILL KEEP DISRUPTING THE
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY AND MOST LIKELY THROUGH
LATE MON.

A FEW PASSING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OVER WINDWARD AREAS OF OAHU AND KAUAI...WITH RADAR DATA
DEPICTING ONLY SMALL/CELLULAR TYPE SHOWERS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
ASSOCIATED RAIN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION HAS BEEN THE WINDWARD AND SE
SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE A LARGER FIELD OF SHOWERS...ARRANGED
MAINLY IN NARROW BANDS...HAVE BEEN STREAMING FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS. AS BEFORE...RADAR DATA HAS SHOWN NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
WITH ANY OF THESE FEATURES. HOWEVER...12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM HILO
AND LIHUE SHOW WEAKENING AND HIGHER INVERSIONS...BETWEEN 10 TO 11
THOUSAND FEET...ALONG WITH INCREASING PWATS UP TO 1.6 INCHES IN THE
HILO SOUNDING. THUS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

FOR TODAY...LATEST LOCAL WRF MODEL CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MORE
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SEABREEZE ACTIVITY WITH GREATER CLOUD BUILDUPS
AND SHOWERS. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE PASSAGE
OF THE REMNANTS OF ENRIQUE...FURTHER WEAKENING THE TRADES AND
SUPPORTING SEABREEZES AND SHOWERS THROUGH MON. MEANWHILE...WINDWARD
AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SINCE THE WEAK TRADES SHOULD STILL
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS.

BY TUE...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO A MORE
TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME AS THE REMNANTS OF ENRIQUE CLEAR THE AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO BECOME STRONGER AS THE SFC
HIGH N OF THE ISLANDS INTENSIFIES. MODELS ALSO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE SE...WITH STRONGER
INVERSIONS PROVIDING FOR A MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE STATE.
THIS TRADE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH BY TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS TODAY...KEEPING A LIGHT WIND REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES AND
DAYTIME SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED AT MANY OF THE TAF SITES. EXPECT
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO IMPACT MAINLY INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING
A FEW SHOWERS ONSHORE IN WINDWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL. PHNY WILL
LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS AFTER 20Z TODAY...ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS. NO AIRMETS ARE
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE TO LARGE SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
SURF AT ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG ALL SOUTH FACING SHORES TODAY BEFORE
STARTING TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. THE CURRENT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM HST MONDAY. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER PULSE OF ENERGY
REACHING THE ISLANDS ON MONDAY AND BLENDING IN WITH THE EARLIER
SOUTH SWELL...WHICH MAY REQUIRE EXTENDING THE ADVISORY THROUGH LATE
MONDAY. THE SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES OF
ALL ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JELSEMA











000
FXHW60 PHFO 260630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE TRADES WILL FURTHER WEAKEN ON SUNDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH SEA BREEZES
BRINGING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS.
HOWEVER...THE TRADES SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES. A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER
PATTERN WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FAR N OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
IS KEEPING A WEAK TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MON. A
WEAK SFC TROUGH CAN ALSO BE OBSERVED MOVING JUST TO THE N OF MAUI
COUNTY. MEANWHILE...THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE
ARE LOCATED ABOUT 680 MILES NE OF THE BIG ISLAND AND GRADUALLY
MOVING W TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP DISRUPTING THE
TRADES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AREAS EACH AFTERNOON.

EARLY THIS EVENING...THERE WERE STILL SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER
LEEWARD AREAS OF OAHU AND KAUAI FROM THIS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES...
BUT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA SHOWED LITTLE OR NO RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CLOUDS. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO THE STILL
PERSISTING INVERSIONS BETWEEN 7 TO 8 THOUSAND FEET AND MODERATE PWAT
VALUES AROUND 1.2 INCHES. HOWEVER...MODEL/MIMIC MOISTURE ANALYSES
SUGGEST AN AREA OF ENHANCED PWATS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH NEAR MAUI...SHIFTING WNW AND BRINGING
INCREASING SHOWERS OVER OAHU AND KAUAI THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS OF THOSE TWO ISLANDS.

LATEST LOCAL WRF MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW MORE WIDESPREAD SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY ON SUN...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO GREATER CLOUD BUILDUPS AND
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS SYNOPTIC
SETUP WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE REMNANTS OF ENRIQUE...
FURTHER WEAKENING THE TRADES AND SUPPORTING SEABREEZES AND SHOWERS
THROUGH POSSIBLY TUE. MEANWHILE...WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL
ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS SINCE THE WEAK TRADES SHOULD STILL BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER
THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

BY TUE...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO A MORE
TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME AS THE REMNANTS OF ENRIQUE CLEAR THE AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO BECOME STRONGER AS THE SFC
HIGH N OF THE ISLANDS INTENSIFIES. MODELS ALSO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE SE...WITH STRONGER
INVERSIONS PROVIDING FOR A MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE STATE.
THIS TRADE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH BY TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...KEEPING A LIGHT WIND REGIME IN PLACE
ACROSS THE STATE. AS A RESULT...OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES AND DAYTIME
SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED AT MANY OF THE TAF SITES. EXPECT CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS TO IMPACT MAINLY INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS ON SUNDAY.
PHNY WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS AFTER 20Z ON SUNDAY...ELSEWHERE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS.
NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MODERATE TO LARGE SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE STARTING TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...AND THE CURRENT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE ACTUALLY TWO PULSES OF ENERGY...ONE OF WHICH
ARRIVES ON MONDAY THAT TENDS TO BLEND IN WITH THE EARLIER SWELL.
THERE ARE GOOD CHANCES THAT THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. AND EVEN AFTER THE ADVISORY EXPIRES...THE SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES OF
ALL ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JELSEMA







000
FXHW60 PHFO 260630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE TRADES WILL FURTHER WEAKEN ON SUNDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH SEA BREEZES
BRINGING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS.
HOWEVER...THE TRADES SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES. A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER
PATTERN WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FAR N OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
IS KEEPING A WEAK TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MON. A
WEAK SFC TROUGH CAN ALSO BE OBSERVED MOVING JUST TO THE N OF MAUI
COUNTY. MEANWHILE...THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE
ARE LOCATED ABOUT 680 MILES NE OF THE BIG ISLAND AND GRADUALLY
MOVING W TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP DISRUPTING THE
TRADES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AREAS EACH AFTERNOON.

EARLY THIS EVENING...THERE WERE STILL SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER
LEEWARD AREAS OF OAHU AND KAUAI FROM THIS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES...
BUT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA SHOWED LITTLE OR NO RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CLOUDS. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO THE STILL
PERSISTING INVERSIONS BETWEEN 7 TO 8 THOUSAND FEET AND MODERATE PWAT
VALUES AROUND 1.2 INCHES. HOWEVER...MODEL/MIMIC MOISTURE ANALYSES
SUGGEST AN AREA OF ENHANCED PWATS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH NEAR MAUI...SHIFTING WNW AND BRINGING
INCREASING SHOWERS OVER OAHU AND KAUAI THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS OF THOSE TWO ISLANDS.

LATEST LOCAL WRF MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW MORE WIDESPREAD SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY ON SUN...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO GREATER CLOUD BUILDUPS AND
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS SYNOPTIC
SETUP WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE REMNANTS OF ENRIQUE...
FURTHER WEAKENING THE TRADES AND SUPPORTING SEABREEZES AND SHOWERS
THROUGH POSSIBLY TUE. MEANWHILE...WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL
ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS SINCE THE WEAK TRADES SHOULD STILL BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER
THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

BY TUE...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO A MORE
TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME AS THE REMNANTS OF ENRIQUE CLEAR THE AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO BECOME STRONGER AS THE SFC
HIGH N OF THE ISLANDS INTENSIFIES. MODELS ALSO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE SE...WITH STRONGER
INVERSIONS PROVIDING FOR A MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE STATE.
THIS TRADE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH BY TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...KEEPING A LIGHT WIND REGIME IN PLACE
ACROSS THE STATE. AS A RESULT...OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES AND DAYTIME
SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED AT MANY OF THE TAF SITES. EXPECT CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS TO IMPACT MAINLY INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS ON SUNDAY.
PHNY WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS AFTER 20Z ON SUNDAY...ELSEWHERE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS.
NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MODERATE TO LARGE SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE STARTING TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...AND THE CURRENT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE ACTUALLY TWO PULSES OF ENERGY...ONE OF WHICH
ARRIVES ON MONDAY THAT TENDS TO BLEND IN WITH THE EARLIER SWELL.
THERE ARE GOOD CHANCES THAT THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. AND EVEN AFTER THE ADVISORY EXPIRES...THE SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES OF
ALL ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JELSEMA








000
FXHW60 PHFO 260155
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY AS A COUPLE TROUGHS PASS
NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH SEA BREEZES BRINGING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS. DURING THE NIGHTS...TRADES SHOULD REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS. A MORE
TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE
WITH A FLATTENING RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE ISLANDS. LOWS
ARE LOCATED FAR TO THE NORTHWEST AND EAST-NORTHEAST...WITH A TROUGH
PASSING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR NORTH OF THE STATE. ONE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE WINDWARD WATERS NORTH OF MAUI COUNTY...
WITH THE LARGER TROUGH THAT WAS FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE
OVER 700 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. 00Z RAOBS FROM HILO
AND LIHUE SHOW INVERSIONS AROUND 7-8KFT. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE
AROUND 1.2-1.3 INCHES...AND THE GPSMET SENSOR IN HONOLULU SHOWS
SIMILAR VALUES. EARLY AFTERNOON MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF HIGHER VALUES NEAR MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE...WITH A
SMALL POCKET OF DRIER AIR SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. ADDITIONAL
HIGHER MOISTURE IS LOCATED FARTHER NORTHEAST WITH THE OTHER TROUGH.

LEEWARD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FLARED UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...FOCUSED
ALONG THE LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES. A COUPLE HEAVIER SHOWERS FORMED
OVER LEEWARD HALEAKALA AND LEEWARD MAUNA LOA...WITH BRIEF RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR. OTHERWISE SHOWERS WERE LIMITED ACROSS
KAUAI/OAHU...WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH MIXED OUT A
BIT OVER MAUI COUNTY...BUT REMAIN PRETTY ROBUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE ISLANDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT NORTHWEST WITH IT...SPREADING TO OAHU OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST
POPS ARE EXPECTED OVER OAHU/MAUI COUNTY. 12Z/18Z GFS AND NAM SHOW A
FLARE UP OF MOISTURE EXTENDING ABOVE 700MB ACROSS THIS AREA
TONIGHT...A SIGN OF DEEPER SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BAND.

WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH...SURFACE PRESSURES AT AIRPORTS
ACROSS THE STATE HAVE DROPPED 1-1.5 MILLIBARS OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...AND THE GRADIENT BETWEEN BUOYS 51101 NORTHWEST OF THE STATE
AND 51002 SOUTH OF THE STATE HAS ALSO DROPPED BY ABOUT A MILLIBAR IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION WRF FROM UH SHOWS MORE WIDESPREAD SEAS BREEZES
AFFECTING LEEWARD AREAS ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. THE BACKGROUND
GRADIENT TURNS MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED STRONGER WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST MAUI AND THE HAMAKUA
COAST...AS WELL AS PLUME CLOUDS EXTENDING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF
THE ISLANDS. A SIMILAR WIND AND WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...WITH FORMER ENRIQUE PASSING TO THE NORTH MAINTAINING THE
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BEGINNING SUNDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS FLATTENS OUT AS THE LOW
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE STATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INVERSION
WEAKENING DURING THE DAY...AND REMAINING WEAK TO NONEXISTENT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND WEAK INVERSION COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED HEAVY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG SEA BREEZES DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OR A LARGE SCALE
BOUNDARY/FOCUS SHOULD PRECLUDE PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS
OR FLOODING.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE START OF A TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL
TRADE WIND PATTERN. THE TROUGHS WILL BE WEST OF THE STATE...WITH THE
HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST EXERTING CONTROL AGAIN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION REESTABLISHING ITSELF AND LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEPTH. THIS
TRADE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A BROAD LOW LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST OVER AND
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN TRADE
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GREATEST CHANCES
FOR MVFR CIGS AND VIS IN SHRA WILL BE ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES FROM
MAUI TO OAHU TONIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN SOMEWHAT
STABLE CONDITIONS BUT A BRIEF +SHRA IS POSSIBLE. WITH TRADE WINDS
WEAKENED...EXPECT DAY TIME SEA BREEZES TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON CLOUDS
AND ISOL SHRA ON LEEWARD SLOPES. NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
COMBINED SEAS AT THE BARBERS POINT BUOY CLIMBED TO 6 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SPECTRAL DATA SHOW A CONTINUING INCREASE IN LONG
PERIOD ENERGY. WEB CAMS AND SURF REPORTS SUPPORT RAISING SURF
HEIGHTS TO 8-12 FEET FOR THE SOUTH FACING SHORES...THOUGH STILL
WITHIN ADVISORY RANGE. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
STARTING TO DIMINISH...AND THE CURRENT ADVISORY RUNS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE ARE ACTUALLY TWO PULSES OF ENERGY...ONE OF WHICH
ARRIVES ON MONDAY THAT TENDS TO BLEND IN WITH THE EARLIER SWELL. THE
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MONDAY...BUT EVEN
IF NOT THE SURF WILL ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES OF
ALL ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...WROE






000
FXHW60 PHFO 260155
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY AS A COUPLE TROUGHS PASS
NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH SEA BREEZES BRINGING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS. DURING THE NIGHTS...TRADES SHOULD REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS. A MORE
TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE
WITH A FLATTENING RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE ISLANDS. LOWS
ARE LOCATED FAR TO THE NORTHWEST AND EAST-NORTHEAST...WITH A TROUGH
PASSING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR NORTH OF THE STATE. ONE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE WINDWARD WATERS NORTH OF MAUI COUNTY...
WITH THE LARGER TROUGH THAT WAS FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE
OVER 700 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. 00Z RAOBS FROM HILO
AND LIHUE SHOW INVERSIONS AROUND 7-8KFT. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE
AROUND 1.2-1.3 INCHES...AND THE GPSMET SENSOR IN HONOLULU SHOWS
SIMILAR VALUES. EARLY AFTERNOON MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF HIGHER VALUES NEAR MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE...WITH A
SMALL POCKET OF DRIER AIR SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. ADDITIONAL
HIGHER MOISTURE IS LOCATED FARTHER NORTHEAST WITH THE OTHER TROUGH.

LEEWARD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FLARED UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...FOCUSED
ALONG THE LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES. A COUPLE HEAVIER SHOWERS FORMED
OVER LEEWARD HALEAKALA AND LEEWARD MAUNA LOA...WITH BRIEF RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR. OTHERWISE SHOWERS WERE LIMITED ACROSS
KAUAI/OAHU...WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH MIXED OUT A
BIT OVER MAUI COUNTY...BUT REMAIN PRETTY ROBUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE ISLANDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT NORTHWEST WITH IT...SPREADING TO OAHU OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST
POPS ARE EXPECTED OVER OAHU/MAUI COUNTY. 12Z/18Z GFS AND NAM SHOW A
FLARE UP OF MOISTURE EXTENDING ABOVE 700MB ACROSS THIS AREA
TONIGHT...A SIGN OF DEEPER SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BAND.

WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH...SURFACE PRESSURES AT AIRPORTS
ACROSS THE STATE HAVE DROPPED 1-1.5 MILLIBARS OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...AND THE GRADIENT BETWEEN BUOYS 51101 NORTHWEST OF THE STATE
AND 51002 SOUTH OF THE STATE HAS ALSO DROPPED BY ABOUT A MILLIBAR IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION WRF FROM UH SHOWS MORE WIDESPREAD SEAS BREEZES
AFFECTING LEEWARD AREAS ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. THE BACKGROUND
GRADIENT TURNS MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED STRONGER WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST MAUI AND THE HAMAKUA
COAST...AS WELL AS PLUME CLOUDS EXTENDING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF
THE ISLANDS. A SIMILAR WIND AND WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...WITH FORMER ENRIQUE PASSING TO THE NORTH MAINTAINING THE
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BEGINNING SUNDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS FLATTENS OUT AS THE LOW
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE STATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INVERSION
WEAKENING DURING THE DAY...AND REMAINING WEAK TO NONEXISTENT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND WEAK INVERSION COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED HEAVY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG SEA BREEZES DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OR A LARGE SCALE
BOUNDARY/FOCUS SHOULD PRECLUDE PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS
OR FLOODING.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE START OF A TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL
TRADE WIND PATTERN. THE TROUGHS WILL BE WEST OF THE STATE...WITH THE
HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST EXERTING CONTROL AGAIN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION REESTABLISHING ITSELF AND LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEPTH. THIS
TRADE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A BROAD LOW LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST OVER AND
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN TRADE
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GREATEST CHANCES
FOR MVFR CIGS AND VIS IN SHRA WILL BE ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES FROM
MAUI TO OAHU TONIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN SOMEWHAT
STABLE CONDITIONS BUT A BRIEF +SHRA IS POSSIBLE. WITH TRADE WINDS
WEAKENED...EXPECT DAY TIME SEA BREEZES TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON CLOUDS
AND ISOL SHRA ON LEEWARD SLOPES. NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
COMBINED SEAS AT THE BARBERS POINT BUOY CLIMBED TO 6 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SPECTRAL DATA SHOW A CONTINUING INCREASE IN LONG
PERIOD ENERGY. WEB CAMS AND SURF REPORTS SUPPORT RAISING SURF
HEIGHTS TO 8-12 FEET FOR THE SOUTH FACING SHORES...THOUGH STILL
WITHIN ADVISORY RANGE. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
STARTING TO DIMINISH...AND THE CURRENT ADVISORY RUNS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE ARE ACTUALLY TWO PULSES OF ENERGY...ONE OF WHICH
ARRIVES ON MONDAY THAT TENDS TO BLEND IN WITH THE EARLIER SWELL. THE
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MONDAY...BUT EVEN
IF NOT THE SURF WILL ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES OF
ALL ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...WROE







000
FXHW60 PHFO 260155
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY AS A COUPLE TROUGHS PASS
NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH SEA BREEZES BRINGING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS. DURING THE NIGHTS...TRADES SHOULD REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS. A MORE
TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE
WITH A FLATTENING RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE ISLANDS. LOWS
ARE LOCATED FAR TO THE NORTHWEST AND EAST-NORTHEAST...WITH A TROUGH
PASSING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR NORTH OF THE STATE. ONE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE WINDWARD WATERS NORTH OF MAUI COUNTY...
WITH THE LARGER TROUGH THAT WAS FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE
OVER 700 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. 00Z RAOBS FROM HILO
AND LIHUE SHOW INVERSIONS AROUND 7-8KFT. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE
AROUND 1.2-1.3 INCHES...AND THE GPSMET SENSOR IN HONOLULU SHOWS
SIMILAR VALUES. EARLY AFTERNOON MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF HIGHER VALUES NEAR MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE...WITH A
SMALL POCKET OF DRIER AIR SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. ADDITIONAL
HIGHER MOISTURE IS LOCATED FARTHER NORTHEAST WITH THE OTHER TROUGH.

LEEWARD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FLARED UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...FOCUSED
ALONG THE LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES. A COUPLE HEAVIER SHOWERS FORMED
OVER LEEWARD HALEAKALA AND LEEWARD MAUNA LOA...WITH BRIEF RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR. OTHERWISE SHOWERS WERE LIMITED ACROSS
KAUAI/OAHU...WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH MIXED OUT A
BIT OVER MAUI COUNTY...BUT REMAIN PRETTY ROBUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE ISLANDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT NORTHWEST WITH IT...SPREADING TO OAHU OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST
POPS ARE EXPECTED OVER OAHU/MAUI COUNTY. 12Z/18Z GFS AND NAM SHOW A
FLARE UP OF MOISTURE EXTENDING ABOVE 700MB ACROSS THIS AREA
TONIGHT...A SIGN OF DEEPER SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BAND.

WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH...SURFACE PRESSURES AT AIRPORTS
ACROSS THE STATE HAVE DROPPED 1-1.5 MILLIBARS OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...AND THE GRADIENT BETWEEN BUOYS 51101 NORTHWEST OF THE STATE
AND 51002 SOUTH OF THE STATE HAS ALSO DROPPED BY ABOUT A MILLIBAR IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION WRF FROM UH SHOWS MORE WIDESPREAD SEAS BREEZES
AFFECTING LEEWARD AREAS ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. THE BACKGROUND
GRADIENT TURNS MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED STRONGER WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST MAUI AND THE HAMAKUA
COAST...AS WELL AS PLUME CLOUDS EXTENDING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF
THE ISLANDS. A SIMILAR WIND AND WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...WITH FORMER ENRIQUE PASSING TO THE NORTH MAINTAINING THE
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BEGINNING SUNDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS FLATTENS OUT AS THE LOW
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE STATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INVERSION
WEAKENING DURING THE DAY...AND REMAINING WEAK TO NONEXISTENT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND WEAK INVERSION COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED HEAVY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG SEA BREEZES DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OR A LARGE SCALE
BOUNDARY/FOCUS SHOULD PRECLUDE PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS
OR FLOODING.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE START OF A TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL
TRADE WIND PATTERN. THE TROUGHS WILL BE WEST OF THE STATE...WITH THE
HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST EXERTING CONTROL AGAIN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION REESTABLISHING ITSELF AND LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEPTH. THIS
TRADE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A BROAD LOW LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST OVER AND
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN TRADE
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GREATEST CHANCES
FOR MVFR CIGS AND VIS IN SHRA WILL BE ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES FROM
MAUI TO OAHU TONIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN SOMEWHAT
STABLE CONDITIONS BUT A BRIEF +SHRA IS POSSIBLE. WITH TRADE WINDS
WEAKENED...EXPECT DAY TIME SEA BREEZES TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON CLOUDS
AND ISOL SHRA ON LEEWARD SLOPES. NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
COMBINED SEAS AT THE BARBERS POINT BUOY CLIMBED TO 6 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SPECTRAL DATA SHOW A CONTINUING INCREASE IN LONG
PERIOD ENERGY. WEB CAMS AND SURF REPORTS SUPPORT RAISING SURF
HEIGHTS TO 8-12 FEET FOR THE SOUTH FACING SHORES...THOUGH STILL
WITHIN ADVISORY RANGE. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
STARTING TO DIMINISH...AND THE CURRENT ADVISORY RUNS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE ARE ACTUALLY TWO PULSES OF ENERGY...ONE OF WHICH
ARRIVES ON MONDAY THAT TENDS TO BLEND IN WITH THE EARLIER SWELL. THE
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MONDAY...BUT EVEN
IF NOT THE SURF WILL ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES OF
ALL ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...WROE






000
FXHW60 PHFO 260155
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY AS A COUPLE TROUGHS PASS
NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH SEA BREEZES BRINGING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS. DURING THE NIGHTS...TRADES SHOULD REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS. A MORE
TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE
WITH A FLATTENING RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE ISLANDS. LOWS
ARE LOCATED FAR TO THE NORTHWEST AND EAST-NORTHEAST...WITH A TROUGH
PASSING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR NORTH OF THE STATE. ONE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE WINDWARD WATERS NORTH OF MAUI COUNTY...
WITH THE LARGER TROUGH THAT WAS FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE
OVER 700 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. 00Z RAOBS FROM HILO
AND LIHUE SHOW INVERSIONS AROUND 7-8KFT. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE
AROUND 1.2-1.3 INCHES...AND THE GPSMET SENSOR IN HONOLULU SHOWS
SIMILAR VALUES. EARLY AFTERNOON MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF HIGHER VALUES NEAR MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE...WITH A
SMALL POCKET OF DRIER AIR SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. ADDITIONAL
HIGHER MOISTURE IS LOCATED FARTHER NORTHEAST WITH THE OTHER TROUGH.

LEEWARD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FLARED UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...FOCUSED
ALONG THE LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES. A COUPLE HEAVIER SHOWERS FORMED
OVER LEEWARD HALEAKALA AND LEEWARD MAUNA LOA...WITH BRIEF RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR. OTHERWISE SHOWERS WERE LIMITED ACROSS
KAUAI/OAHU...WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH MIXED OUT A
BIT OVER MAUI COUNTY...BUT REMAIN PRETTY ROBUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE ISLANDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT NORTHWEST WITH IT...SPREADING TO OAHU OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST
POPS ARE EXPECTED OVER OAHU/MAUI COUNTY. 12Z/18Z GFS AND NAM SHOW A
FLARE UP OF MOISTURE EXTENDING ABOVE 700MB ACROSS THIS AREA
TONIGHT...A SIGN OF DEEPER SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BAND.

WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH...SURFACE PRESSURES AT AIRPORTS
ACROSS THE STATE HAVE DROPPED 1-1.5 MILLIBARS OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...AND THE GRADIENT BETWEEN BUOYS 51101 NORTHWEST OF THE STATE
AND 51002 SOUTH OF THE STATE HAS ALSO DROPPED BY ABOUT A MILLIBAR IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION WRF FROM UH SHOWS MORE WIDESPREAD SEAS BREEZES
AFFECTING LEEWARD AREAS ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. THE BACKGROUND
GRADIENT TURNS MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED STRONGER WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST MAUI AND THE HAMAKUA
COAST...AS WELL AS PLUME CLOUDS EXTENDING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF
THE ISLANDS. A SIMILAR WIND AND WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...WITH FORMER ENRIQUE PASSING TO THE NORTH MAINTAINING THE
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BEGINNING SUNDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS FLATTENS OUT AS THE LOW
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE STATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INVERSION
WEAKENING DURING THE DAY...AND REMAINING WEAK TO NONEXISTENT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND WEAK INVERSION COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED HEAVY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG SEA BREEZES DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OR A LARGE SCALE
BOUNDARY/FOCUS SHOULD PRECLUDE PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS
OR FLOODING.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE START OF A TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL
TRADE WIND PATTERN. THE TROUGHS WILL BE WEST OF THE STATE...WITH THE
HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST EXERTING CONTROL AGAIN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION REESTABLISHING ITSELF AND LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEPTH. THIS
TRADE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A BROAD LOW LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST OVER AND
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN TRADE
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GREATEST CHANCES
FOR MVFR CIGS AND VIS IN SHRA WILL BE ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES FROM
MAUI TO OAHU TONIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN SOMEWHAT
STABLE CONDITIONS BUT A BRIEF +SHRA IS POSSIBLE. WITH TRADE WINDS
WEAKENED...EXPECT DAY TIME SEA BREEZES TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON CLOUDS
AND ISOL SHRA ON LEEWARD SLOPES. NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
COMBINED SEAS AT THE BARBERS POINT BUOY CLIMBED TO 6 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SPECTRAL DATA SHOW A CONTINUING INCREASE IN LONG
PERIOD ENERGY. WEB CAMS AND SURF REPORTS SUPPORT RAISING SURF
HEIGHTS TO 8-12 FEET FOR THE SOUTH FACING SHORES...THOUGH STILL
WITHIN ADVISORY RANGE. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
STARTING TO DIMINISH...AND THE CURRENT ADVISORY RUNS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE ARE ACTUALLY TWO PULSES OF ENERGY...ONE OF WHICH
ARRIVES ON MONDAY THAT TENDS TO BLEND IN WITH THE EARLIER SWELL. THE
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MONDAY...BUT EVEN
IF NOT THE SURF WILL ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES OF
ALL ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...WROE







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