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000
FXHW60 PHFO 141426
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
415 AM HST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS TO PERSIST ACROSS MAUI COUNTY
AND THE BIG ISLAND TODAY...WHILE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR LEEWARD LAND AND SEA BREEZES AND A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ON OAHU
AND KAUAI. TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE
STATE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS FRONTAL
REMNANTS ARE CARRIED ACROSS THE STATE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED FAR NE OF THE AREA WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE A COLD FRONT
BOUNDARY ABOUT 450 MILES NW OF KAUAI CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY APPROACH
THE ISLANDS. THE FRONT IS VEERING WINDS ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN...KEEPING A WEAK SE FLOW OVER OAHU AND KAUAI...AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE E WINDS OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY TODAY.

THE RELATIVE DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS DOMINATING THE AREA WILL KEEP
RAINFALL ACTIVITY ON THE LOWER END TODAY...BUT EARLY MORNING RADAR
DATA SHOWS THAT COVERAGE OF PASSING SHOWERS IS INCREASING.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PRESENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT AND STRONG INVERSIONS
BETWEEN 7 TO 9 THOUSAND FEET...ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP TODAY SHOULD
REMAIN SHALLOW AND BRIEF.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
DISSIPATING JUST NW OF KAUAI...WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH
INTENSIFIES. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADES MON THROUGH WED. THE REMNANT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
ON KAUAI BY MON NIGHT. THEN...AN INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR
NW OF THE ISLANDS WILL HELP IN PUSHING THE MOISTURE INTO OAHU AND
MAUI COUNTY BY TUE. ANY REMAINING MOISTURE SHOULD REACH THE BIG
ISLAND BY WED. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE IN DEPICTING MODERATE TO BREEZY
TRADE WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE STATE FROM LATE MON THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH RAINFALL FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. SOME OF
THE LARGER SHOWERS MAY REACH LEEWARD LOCATIONS AT TIMES. THE BEST
DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NW OF THE
ISLANDS...THUS RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE WITH NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A SFC RIDGE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG HIGH
TO THE NW...GRADUALLY MOVING CLOSER TO THE STATE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH THE LINGERING MOISTURE FURTHER TO
THE S OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...WITH A DRIER AIRMASS DESCENDING ACROSS
THE AREA. THE BREEZY TRADES WILL DECREASE A LITTLE...BUT LIKELY
REMAINING MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST AREAS TODAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG WINDWARD FACING SLOPES...AS WELL
AS OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOME OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE BANDS AHEAD OF A FRONT APPROACHING
KAUAI TONIGHT MAY CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF
KAUAI STARTING THIS EVENING. NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS AROUND THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY...EXCEPT FOR MAALAEA BAY...DUE TO BREEZY EAST
WINDS PRODUCED BY A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED AND EXPANDED IN COVERAGE
FOR SEAS LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO AN INCOMING WEST NORTHWEST SWELL
TO THE ISLANDS. THE ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA BY MONDAY FOR STRONG NORTHEAST TRADES PUSHING IN WITH A STRONG
HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TODAY PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF
HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS...AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY.

THE STRONG TRADES PRODUCED BY AN INTENSIFYING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO THE NORTHWEST MAY ALSO BRING HIGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES
OF SOME ISLANDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR
NIIHAU-KAUAI WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH
SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-
KONA-KOHALA.

GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR
KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD
WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...HOUSTON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 140608
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MAUI COUNTY AND THE
BIG ISLAND...WHILE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR LEEWARD
LAND AND SEA BREEZES ON OAHU AND KAUAI. TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS NORTHWEST OF
THE STATE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS FRONTAL
REMNANTS ARE CARRIED ACROSS THE STATE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED FAR NE OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WHILE A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY CAN BE NOTICED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY ABOUT 550 MILES NW OF KAUAI AND GRADUALLY
APPROACHING THE ISLANDS. THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT IS ENOUGH TO
VEER WINDS ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...KEEPING A WEAK SE
FLOW OVER OAHU AND KAUAI...AND A LIGHT E WINDS OVER THE BIG ISLAND
AND MAUI COUNTY.

A RELATIVE DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS DOMINATES THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
RADAR DATA SHOWING VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO RIDGING ALOFT...WHICH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...MORE BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
CONTINUING LIGHT SE WINDS ON OAHU AND KAUAI...AND BECOMING MODERATE
FROM THE E OVER MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DISSIPATING JUST NW
OF KAUAI AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH INTENSIFIES...BRINGING A
TRANSITION TO A MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADE WIND PATTERN MON THROUGH
WED. THE REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING FRONT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS ON KAUAI BY MON NIGHT. THEN...AN
INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR NW OF THE ISLANDS WILL HELP IN
PUSHING THE MOISTURE INTO OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY BY TUE. ANY REMAINING
MOISTURE SHOULD REACH THE BIG ISLAND BY WED. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE IN
DEPICTING MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE STATE
FROM LATE MON THROUGH MID WEEK WITH RAINFALL FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS. SOME OF THE LARGER SHOWERS MAY REACH LEEWARD
LOCATIONS AT TIMES. THE BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL TO THE NW OF THE ISLANDS...THUS RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE
WITH NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A SFC RIDGE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG HIGH
TO THE NW...GRADUALLY MOVING CLOSER TO THE STATE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH THE LINGERING MOISTURE FURTHER TO
THE S OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...WITH A DRIER AIRMASS DESCENDING ACROSS
THE AREA. THE BREEZY TRADES WILL DECREASE A LITTLE...BUT LIKELY
REMAINING MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG WINDWARD
FACING SLOPES. NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR AREAS AROUND
BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY...EXCEPT FOR MAALAEA BAY...DUE TO BREEZY
EAST  WINDS PRODUCED BY A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY...
HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED AND EXPANDED IN
COVERAGE FOR SEAS ON SUNDAY DUE TO AN INCOMING WEST NORTHWEST SWELL
TO THE ISLANDS. THE ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR STRONG NORTHEAST TRADES PUSHING IN WITH A
STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN ON SUNDAY PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF
HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SURF BUILDING ON NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU IN THE MORNING...THEN SPREADING TO OAHU MOLOKAI
AND MAUI IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE STRONG TRADES PRODUCED BY AN INTENSIFYING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO THE NORTHWEST MAY ALSO BRING HIGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES
OF SOME ISLANDS  MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR NORTH
WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI AND NORTH FACING
SHORES OF MAUI.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST
WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...HOUSTON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 140206
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
406 PM HST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE EAST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND...WHILE GENTLE EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS ALLOW FOR LEEWARD LAND
AND SEA BREEZES ON OAHU AND KAUAI. TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS NORTHWEST OF
THE STATE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS
FRONTAL REMNANTS ARE CARRIED ACROSS THE STATE FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE WITH A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH IS DRIVING EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY...BUT THE FLOW
VEERS EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
THE FRONT.

AN UPPER RIDGE IS SITUATED OVER THE STATE ALLOWING STABLE AND
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERSION
OF 9 KFT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ VALUES BETWEEN 0.9 TO 1
INCH. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGHOUT MOST
OF THE STATE IMPACTING BOTH WINDWARD AND LEEWARD AREAS...WITH NO
SHOWERS ON RADAR.

FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR / MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE AND MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE EAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND DIRECTION FOR KAUAI AND
OAHU BY LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES KAUAI.

A TRANSITION TO A BREEZY AND RATHER WET TRADE WIND PATTERN IS
FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL PUSH THE DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT CLOSE TO KAUAI ON MONDAY. AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL IS
LIKELY ON KAUAI BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT DRIFTS OVER THAT
ISLAND...WITH THE BAND OF MOISTURE SPREADING OVER OAHU AND MAUI
COUNTY ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN WINDWARD BIG ISLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. BREEZY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL ISLANDS
FROM LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE TRADE
WINDS WILL FOCUS THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION ONTO WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREA...EXPECT LEEWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS TO ALSO
RECEIVE SOME RAIN AS THE FRONT MOVES DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN. MOST
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
STATE...THUS RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE. NO HEAVY RAIN OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LONGER RANGE MODELS DEPICT THE STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST
SINKING GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
PUSHES THE LINGERING MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND BRINGS A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE STATE FOR THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
STRONG AS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ISLANDS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
WINDWARD SHOWERS PUSHING INTO E AND NE FACING SLOPES. NO AIRMETS CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR AREAS AROUND
BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY...EXCEPT FOR MAALAEA BAY...DUE TO
BREEZY EAST WINDS PRODUCED BY A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE WINDS MAY DROP OFF SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...THE
SCA WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED AND EXPANDED IN COVERAGE FOR SEAS ON
SUNDAY DUE TO AN INCOMING WEST NORTHWEST SWELL TO THE ISLANDS.
THE SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR STRONG NORTHEAST TRADES PUSHING IN WITH A STRONG HIGH TO
THE NORTHWEST.

THE EARLIER MENTIONED WEST NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SPREAD WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN ON SUNDAY PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL
SURF HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY GOES INTO
EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SURF BUILDING ON NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU IN THE MORNING...THEN SPREADING
TO OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE STRONG TRADES PRODUCED BY NEXT WEEK/S HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST MAY
ALSO BRING HIGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF SOME ISLANDS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR NORTH
WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI AND NORTH FACING
SHORES OF MAUI.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST
WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...MORRISON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 131959
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
959 AM HST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS MAUI COUNTY
AND THE BIG ISLAND...WHILE GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALLOW
FOR LEEWARD LAND AND SEA BREEZES ON OAHU AND KAUAI. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT ISOLATED WINDWARD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THIS WEEKEND. NORTHEASTERLY
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVER THE AREA AS FRONTAL REMNANTS ARE CARRIED ACROSS THE STATE
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE WITH A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH IS DRIVING
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY...BUT
THE FLOW VEERS EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU THIS MORNING
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT. THUS...ANTICIPATING TO SEE A
TRADE WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH
LOCALIZED LEEWARD LAND AND BREEZES ACROSS THE WEST.

AN UPPER RIDGE IS SITUATED OVER THE STATE ALLOWING STABLE AND
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. EARLY MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED INVERSION OF 10 KFT AT HILO WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER /PW/ VALUE OF 1.14 INCHES. MEANWHILE...LIHUE HAS AN 8 KFT
INVERSION AND IS AT A DRIER 0.87 INCHES OF PW. RADAR AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOW SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
IMPACTING WINDWARD SIDES OF THE BIG ISLAND...MAUI AND MOLOKAI.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE WIND FLOW AND AIRMASS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE SAME.
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI COUNTY...VEERING TO GENTLE EAST / SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER OAHU
AND KAUAI. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER WINDWARD SECTIONS
OF THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH MOLOKAI...POSSIBLY SPREADING AS FAR WEST
AS THE KOOLAU SLOPES ON OAHU. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS LEEWARD
SIDES OF THE ISLANDS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS BUT LITTLE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL TRADE
WIND DIRECTION BY LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES KAUAI.

A TRANSITION TO A BREEZY AND RATHER WET TRADE WIND PATTERN IS
FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL PUSH THE DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT CLOSE TO KAUAI ON MONDAY. AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL IS
LIKELY ON KAUAI BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT DRIFTS OVER THAT
ISLAND...WITH THE BAND OF MOISTURE SPREADING OVER OAHU AND MAUI
COUNTY ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICTS
BREEZY TRADE WINDS ACROSS ALL ISLANDS FROM LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONGER RANGE MODELS DEPICT THE STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST
SINKING GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
PUSHES THE LINGERING MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND BRINGS A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE STATE FOR THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
STRONG AS THOSE OBSERVED EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ISLANDS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
WINDWARD SHOWERS PUSHING INTO E AND NE FACING SLOPES. NO AIRMETS CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
SURF WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON ALL SHORES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN A MODERATE TO LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL APPEARS SET TO
PRODUCE THE NEXT ROUND OF LOW-END ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ON NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY
TRADES MAY ALSO PRODUCE HIGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF SOME
ISLANDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IN PLACE TODAY FOR AREAS AROUND BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY...EXCEPT FOR MAALAEA BAY. THE SCA MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT FOR SOME OF THE SAME ZONES. THE SCA
WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED FOR SEAS ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE INCOMING NORTHWEST
SWELL MENTIONED EARLIER...AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR STRONG NORTHEAST TRADES AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST
WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...MORRISON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 131333
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
333 AM HST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY BREEZY EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND...WHILE GENTLE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ALLOW FOR LEEWARD LAND AND SEA BREEZES ON OAHU
AND KAUAI. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL FOCUS PASSING SHOWERS OVER
WINDWARD SLOPES...MAINLY ON MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. NORTHEASTERLY
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVER THE AREA AS FRONTAL REMNANTS ARE CARRIED ACROSS THE STATE
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW HAVE CONTINUED
TO MOVE INTO SOME WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND...MAUI AND
MOLOKAI OVERNIGHT...AND SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED ALONG THE WINDWARD
OAHU COAST AND OVER THE KOOLAU RANGE AS WELL. DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...AND A COLD FRONT
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-
NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. THE TRADE WINDS ARE STRONGEST OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE WEAKER EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF. MIMIC-TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS SURROUNDING THE STATE...ALTHOUGH
THE 12Z HILO SOUNDING SHOWS A BIT MORE MOISTURE THERE WITH THE
INVERSION UP TO 10K FEET AND PWAT OF 1.14 INCHES. THE 12Z LIHUE
SOUNDING REMAINED QUITE DRY WITH THE INVERSION BASE NEAR 7000
FEET AND PWAT JUST BELOW 0.9 INCHES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE STATE.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...DRIVING MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY...VEERING TO GENTLE
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER OAHU AND KAUAI. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT OVER WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI...BUT
EVEN THERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER OAHU AND
KAUAI...AS THIS FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP THOSE ISLANDS IN THE RAIN
SHADOW OF THE BIG ISLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
WINDWARD OAHU AT TIMES...AS THAT AREA CAN BE FAVORED FOR RAINFALL
IN EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS LEEWARD
SECTIONS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS BUT LITTLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL TRADE
WIND DIRECTION BY LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES KAUAI.

A TRANSITION TO A BREEZY AND RATHER WET TRADE WIND PATTERN IS
FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL PUSH A DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE TO KAUAI ON MONDAY. AN INCREASE IN
RAINFALL IS LIKELY ON KAUAI BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT DRIFTS
OVER THAT ISLAND...WITH THE BAND OF MOISTURE SPREADING OVER OAHU
AND MAUI COUNTY ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DISSIPATING
FRONT CONTINUES DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO DEPICT BREEZY/GUSTY TRADE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE
STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY.

LONGER RANGE MODELS DEPICT THE STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST
SINKING GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
PUSHES THE LINGERING MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND BRINGS A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE STATE FOR THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
STRONG AS THOSE OBSERVED EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
E AND SE SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI...AND MAUKA AND
WINDWARD SECTIONS OF WEST MAUI AND THE SMALLER ISLES.

NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST SWELL HAS CONTINUED TO DECLINE BOTH AT THE NEARSHORE
BUOYS AND AT BUOY 51001 DURING THE NIGHT...AND THE EARLIER HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH FACING SHORES WAS DROPPED SHORTLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. SURF WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON ALL SHORES
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN A MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL APPEARS SET
TO PRODUCE THE NEXT ROUND OF LOW-END ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ON NORTH
AND WEST FACING SHORES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY
TRADES MAY ALSO PRODUCE HIGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF SOME
ISLANDS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE FRIDAY EVENING ASCAT PASS REVEALED WINDS SPEEDS RUNNING LOWER
THAN EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM MAUI THROUGH KAUAI...BUT HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INSISTS THAT THE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY BY MORNING...AND WILL KEEP THE EXISTING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY /SCA/ IN PLACE TODAY FOR ALL OF THE SAME ZONES EXCEPT
FOR MAALAEA BAY. THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT FOR
SOME ZONES AROUND THE BIG ISLAND...BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT MAKE
THAT DECISION. THE SCA COULD BE EXPANDED FOR SEAS ON SUNDAY
DUE TO ANOTHER NORTHWEST SWELL...AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR AREAS OF STRONG
NORTHEAST TRADES AND HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...KINEL





000
FXHW60 PHFO 131333
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
333 AM HST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY BREEZY EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND...WHILE GENTLE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ALLOW FOR LEEWARD LAND AND SEA BREEZES ON OAHU
AND KAUAI. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL FOCUS PASSING SHOWERS OVER
WINDWARD SLOPES...MAINLY ON MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. NORTHEASTERLY
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVER THE AREA AS FRONTAL REMNANTS ARE CARRIED ACROSS THE STATE
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW HAVE CONTINUED
TO MOVE INTO SOME WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND...MAUI AND
MOLOKAI OVERNIGHT...AND SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED ALONG THE WINDWARD
OAHU COAST AND OVER THE KOOLAU RANGE AS WELL. DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...AND A COLD FRONT
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-
NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. THE TRADE WINDS ARE STRONGEST OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE WEAKER EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF. MIMIC-TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS SURROUNDING THE STATE...ALTHOUGH
THE 12Z HILO SOUNDING SHOWS A BIT MORE MOISTURE THERE WITH THE
INVERSION UP TO 10K FEET AND PWAT OF 1.14 INCHES. THE 12Z LIHUE
SOUNDING REMAINED QUITE DRY WITH THE INVERSION BASE NEAR 7000
FEET AND PWAT JUST BELOW 0.9 INCHES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE STATE.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...DRIVING MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY...VEERING TO GENTLE
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER OAHU AND KAUAI. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT OVER WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI...BUT
EVEN THERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER OAHU AND
KAUAI...AS THIS FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP THOSE ISLANDS IN THE RAIN
SHADOW OF THE BIG ISLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
WINDWARD OAHU AT TIMES...AS THAT AREA CAN BE FAVORED FOR RAINFALL
IN EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS LEEWARD
SECTIONS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS BUT LITTLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL TRADE
WIND DIRECTION BY LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES KAUAI.

A TRANSITION TO A BREEZY AND RATHER WET TRADE WIND PATTERN IS
FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL PUSH A DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE TO KAUAI ON MONDAY. AN INCREASE IN
RAINFALL IS LIKELY ON KAUAI BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT DRIFTS
OVER THAT ISLAND...WITH THE BAND OF MOISTURE SPREADING OVER OAHU
AND MAUI COUNTY ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DISSIPATING
FRONT CONTINUES DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO DEPICT BREEZY/GUSTY TRADE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE
STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY.

LONGER RANGE MODELS DEPICT THE STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST
SINKING GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
PUSHES THE LINGERING MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND BRINGS A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE STATE FOR THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
STRONG AS THOSE OBSERVED EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
E AND SE SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI...AND MAUKA AND
WINDWARD SECTIONS OF WEST MAUI AND THE SMALLER ISLES.

NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST SWELL HAS CONTINUED TO DECLINE BOTH AT THE NEARSHORE
BUOYS AND AT BUOY 51001 DURING THE NIGHT...AND THE EARLIER HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH FACING SHORES WAS DROPPED SHORTLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. SURF WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON ALL SHORES
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN A MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL APPEARS SET
TO PRODUCE THE NEXT ROUND OF LOW-END ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ON NORTH
AND WEST FACING SHORES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY
TRADES MAY ALSO PRODUCE HIGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF SOME
ISLANDS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE FRIDAY EVENING ASCAT PASS REVEALED WINDS SPEEDS RUNNING LOWER
THAN EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM MAUI THROUGH KAUAI...BUT HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INSISTS THAT THE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY BY MORNING...AND WILL KEEP THE EXISTING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY /SCA/ IN PLACE TODAY FOR ALL OF THE SAME ZONES EXCEPT
FOR MAALAEA BAY. THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT FOR
SOME ZONES AROUND THE BIG ISLAND...BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT MAKE
THAT DECISION. THE SCA COULD BE EXPANDED FOR SEAS ON SUNDAY
DUE TO ANOTHER NORTHWEST SWELL...AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR AREAS OF STRONG
NORTHEAST TRADES AND HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...KINEL




000
FXHW60 PHFO 131333
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
333 AM HST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY BREEZY EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND...WHILE GENTLE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ALLOW FOR LEEWARD LAND AND SEA BREEZES ON OAHU
AND KAUAI. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL FOCUS PASSING SHOWERS OVER
WINDWARD SLOPES...MAINLY ON MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. NORTHEASTERLY
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVER THE AREA AS FRONTAL REMNANTS ARE CARRIED ACROSS THE STATE
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW HAVE CONTINUED
TO MOVE INTO SOME WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND...MAUI AND
MOLOKAI OVERNIGHT...AND SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED ALONG THE WINDWARD
OAHU COAST AND OVER THE KOOLAU RANGE AS WELL. DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...AND A COLD FRONT
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-
NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. THE TRADE WINDS ARE STRONGEST OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE WEAKER EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF. MIMIC-TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS SURROUNDING THE STATE...ALTHOUGH
THE 12Z HILO SOUNDING SHOWS A BIT MORE MOISTURE THERE WITH THE
INVERSION UP TO 10K FEET AND PWAT OF 1.14 INCHES. THE 12Z LIHUE
SOUNDING REMAINED QUITE DRY WITH THE INVERSION BASE NEAR 7000
FEET AND PWAT JUST BELOW 0.9 INCHES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE STATE.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...DRIVING MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY...VEERING TO GENTLE
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER OAHU AND KAUAI. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT OVER WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI...BUT
EVEN THERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER OAHU AND
KAUAI...AS THIS FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP THOSE ISLANDS IN THE RAIN
SHADOW OF THE BIG ISLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
WINDWARD OAHU AT TIMES...AS THAT AREA CAN BE FAVORED FOR RAINFALL
IN EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS LEEWARD
SECTIONS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS BUT LITTLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL TRADE
WIND DIRECTION BY LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES KAUAI.

A TRANSITION TO A BREEZY AND RATHER WET TRADE WIND PATTERN IS
FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL PUSH A DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE TO KAUAI ON MONDAY. AN INCREASE IN
RAINFALL IS LIKELY ON KAUAI BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT DRIFTS
OVER THAT ISLAND...WITH THE BAND OF MOISTURE SPREADING OVER OAHU
AND MAUI COUNTY ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DISSIPATING
FRONT CONTINUES DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO DEPICT BREEZY/GUSTY TRADE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE
STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY.

LONGER RANGE MODELS DEPICT THE STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST
SINKING GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
PUSHES THE LINGERING MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND BRINGS A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE STATE FOR THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
STRONG AS THOSE OBSERVED EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
E AND SE SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI...AND MAUKA AND
WINDWARD SECTIONS OF WEST MAUI AND THE SMALLER ISLES.

NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST SWELL HAS CONTINUED TO DECLINE BOTH AT THE NEARSHORE
BUOYS AND AT BUOY 51001 DURING THE NIGHT...AND THE EARLIER HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH FACING SHORES WAS DROPPED SHORTLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. SURF WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON ALL SHORES
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN A MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL APPEARS SET
TO PRODUCE THE NEXT ROUND OF LOW-END ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ON NORTH
AND WEST FACING SHORES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY
TRADES MAY ALSO PRODUCE HIGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF SOME
ISLANDS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE FRIDAY EVENING ASCAT PASS REVEALED WINDS SPEEDS RUNNING LOWER
THAN EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM MAUI THROUGH KAUAI...BUT HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INSISTS THAT THE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY BY MORNING...AND WILL KEEP THE EXISTING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY /SCA/ IN PLACE TODAY FOR ALL OF THE SAME ZONES EXCEPT
FOR MAALAEA BAY. THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT FOR
SOME ZONES AROUND THE BIG ISLAND...BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT MAKE
THAT DECISION. THE SCA COULD BE EXPANDED FOR SEAS ON SUNDAY
DUE TO ANOTHER NORTHWEST SWELL...AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR AREAS OF STRONG
NORTHEAST TRADES AND HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...KINEL





000
FXHW60 PHFO 130939 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1139 PM HST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO DROP THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR
NORTH FACING SHORES. ALSO INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FOR
WINDWARD OAHU...WHERE SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED DURING THE EVENING
DUE TO A FAVORABLE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY BREEZY EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY ACROSS MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND...WHILE GENTLE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS ALLOW FOR LEEWARD LAND AND SEA BREEZES ON OAHU
AND KAUAI. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL FOCUS PASSING SHOWERS OVER
WINDWARD SLOPES...MAINLY ON MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. NORTHEASTERLY
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVER THE AREA AS FRONTAL REMNANTS ARE CARRIED ACROSS THE STATE
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 830 PM HST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE MOVING INTO
SOME WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND...EAST MAUI AND MOLOKAI THIS
EVENING...AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE
KOOLAU RANGE ON OAHU AS WELL. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO
THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. THE
TRADE WINDS ARE STRONGEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...
WHILE WEAKER EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN HALF.
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH THE 00Z SOUNDINGS
MEASURING PWATS AROUND 0.9 INCHES AND STRONG INVERSIONS BASED
BETWEEN 6500 AND 8000 FEET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG MID
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY
SHOWS SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THAN
ELSEWHERE...BUT EVEN OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS THE ESTIMATED PWATS
ARE BARELY ABOVE ONE INCH.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...DRIVING MODERATE
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY...VEERING TO
GENTLE EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER OAHU AND KAUAI. SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST PREVALENT OVER WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI...BUT EVEN THERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
OAHU AND KAUAI...AS THIS FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP THOSE ISLANDS IN
THE RAIN SHADOW OF THE BIG ISLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER WINDWARD OAHU AT TIMES...AS THAT AREA CAN BE FAVORED
FOR RAINFALL IN EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS
LEEWARD SECTIONS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS BUT LITTLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL TRADE
WIND DIRECTION BY LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES KAUAI.

A TRANSITION TO A BREEZY AND RATHER WET TRADE WIND PATTERN IS
FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL PUSH A DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE TO KAUAI ON MONDAY. AN INCREASE IN
RAINFALL IS LIKELY ON KAUAI BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT DRIFTS
OVER THAT ISLAND...WITH THE BAND OF MOISTURE SPREADING OVER OAHU
AND PARTS OF MAUI COUNTY ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
DISSIPATING FRONT CONTINUES DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEPICT BREEZY/GUSTY TRADE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS
THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY.

LONGER RANGE MODELS DEPICT THE STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST
SINKING GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
PUSHES THE LINGERING MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND BRINGS A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE STATE FOR THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
STRONG AS THOSE OBSERVED EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
E AND SE SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS.

NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO RUN NEAR 8 FEET AT THE
NEARSHORE CDIP BUOYS...BUT HAS DROPPED TO BELOW 6 FEET AT BUOYS
51001 AND 51101 DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE EXISTING HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE REST OF THIS EVENING...BUT WE EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BE DROPPED
AT MIDNIGHT AS SCHEDULED. THE NEXT ROUND OF ADVISORY LEVEL SURF IS
DUE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY TRADES MAY
ALSO PRODUCE HIGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF SOME ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE DECLINING NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL PRODUCE SEAS UP TO 10 FT AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THESE
ISLANDS THIS EVENING...BUT THE MAIN PURPOSE FOR THE SCA IS TO
COVER AREAS OF STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE SCA RUNS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF WINDS HOLD
LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THE SCA COULD BE EXPANDED FOR SEAS ON SUNDAY
DUE TO ANOTHER NORTHWEST SWELL...AND WILL LIKELY BE POSTED AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR AREAS OF STRONG NORTHEAST TRADES AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

UPDATE/DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...KINEL





000
FXHW60 PHFO 130630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY BREEZY EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY ACROSS MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND...WHILE GENTLE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS ALLOW FOR LEEWARD LAND AND SEA BREEZES ON OAHU
AND KAUAI. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL FOCUS PASSING SHOWERS OVER
WINDWARD SLOPES...MAINLY ON MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. NORTHEASTERLY
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVER THE AREA AS FRONTAL REMNANTS ARE CARRIED ACROSS THE STATE
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE MOVING INTO
SOME WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND...EAST MAUI AND MOLOKAI THIS
EVENING...AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE
KOOLAU RANGE ON OAHU AS WELL. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO
THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. THE
TRADE WINDS ARE STRONGEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...
WHILE WEAKER EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN HALF.
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH THE 00Z SOUNDINGS
MEASURING PWATS AROUND 0.9 INCHES AND STRONG INVERSIONS BASED
BETWEEN 6500 AND 8000 FEET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG MID
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY
SHOWS SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THAN
ELSEWHERE...BUT EVEN OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS THE ESTIMATED PWATS
ARE BARELY ABOVE ONE INCH.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...DRIVING MODERATE
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY...VEERING TO
GENTLE EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER OAHU AND KAUAI. SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST PREVALENT OVER WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI...BUT EVEN THERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
OAHU AND KAUAI...AS THIS FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP THOSE ISLANDS IN
THE RAIN SHADOW OF THE BIG ISLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER WINDWARD OAHU AT TIMES...AS THAT AREA CAN BE FAVORED
FOR RAINFALL IN EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS
LEEWARD SECTIONS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS BUT LITTLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL TRADE
WIND DIRECTION BY LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES KAUAI.

A TRANSITION TO A BREEZY AND RATHER WET TRADE WIND PATTERN IS
FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL PUSH A DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE TO KAUAI ON MONDAY. AN INCREASE IN
RAINFALL IS LIKELY ON KAUAI BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT DRIFTS
OVER THAT ISLAND...WITH THE BAND OF MOISTURE SPREADING OVER OAHU
AND PARTS OF MAUI COUNTY ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
DISSIPATING FRONT CONTINUES DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEPICT BREEZY/GUSTY TRADE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS
THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY.

LONGER RANGE MODELS DEPICT THE STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST
SINKING GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
PUSHES THE LINGERING MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND BRINGS A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE STATE FOR THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
STRONG AS THOSE OBSERVED EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
E AND SE SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS.

NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO RUN NEAR 8 FEET AT THE
NEARSHORE CDIP BUOYS...BUT HAS DROPPED TO BELOW 6 FEET AT BUOYS
51001 AND 51101 DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE EXISTING HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE REST OF THIS EVENING...BUT WE EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BE DROPPED
AT MIDNIGHT AS SCHEDULED. THE NEXT ROUND OF ADVISORY LEVEL SURF IS
DUE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY TRADES MAY
ALSO PRODUCE HIGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF SOME ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE DECLINING NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL PRODUCE SEAS UP TO 10 FT AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THESE
ISLANDS THIS EVENING...BUT THE MAIN PURPOSE FOR THE SCA IS TO
COVER AREAS OF STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE SCA RUNS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF WINDS HOLD
LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THE SCA COULD BE EXPANDED FOR SEAS ON SUNDAY
DUE TO ANOTHER NORTHWEST SWELL...AND WILL LIKELY BE POSTED AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR AREAS OF STRONG NORTHEAST TRADES AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT HST TONIGHT FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...KINEL





000
FXHW60 PHFO 130630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY BREEZY EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY ACROSS MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND...WHILE GENTLE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS ALLOW FOR LEEWARD LAND AND SEA BREEZES ON OAHU
AND KAUAI. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL FOCUS PASSING SHOWERS OVER
WINDWARD SLOPES...MAINLY ON MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. NORTHEASTERLY
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVER THE AREA AS FRONTAL REMNANTS ARE CARRIED ACROSS THE STATE
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE MOVING INTO
SOME WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND...EAST MAUI AND MOLOKAI THIS
EVENING...AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE
KOOLAU RANGE ON OAHU AS WELL. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO
THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. THE
TRADE WINDS ARE STRONGEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...
WHILE WEAKER EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN HALF.
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH THE 00Z SOUNDINGS
MEASURING PWATS AROUND 0.9 INCHES AND STRONG INVERSIONS BASED
BETWEEN 6500 AND 8000 FEET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG MID
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY
SHOWS SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THAN
ELSEWHERE...BUT EVEN OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS THE ESTIMATED PWATS
ARE BARELY ABOVE ONE INCH.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...DRIVING MODERATE
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY...VEERING TO
GENTLE EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER OAHU AND KAUAI. SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST PREVALENT OVER WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI...BUT EVEN THERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
OAHU AND KAUAI...AS THIS FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP THOSE ISLANDS IN
THE RAIN SHADOW OF THE BIG ISLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER WINDWARD OAHU AT TIMES...AS THAT AREA CAN BE FAVORED
FOR RAINFALL IN EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS
LEEWARD SECTIONS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS BUT LITTLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL TRADE
WIND DIRECTION BY LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES KAUAI.

A TRANSITION TO A BREEZY AND RATHER WET TRADE WIND PATTERN IS
FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL PUSH A DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE TO KAUAI ON MONDAY. AN INCREASE IN
RAINFALL IS LIKELY ON KAUAI BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT DRIFTS
OVER THAT ISLAND...WITH THE BAND OF MOISTURE SPREADING OVER OAHU
AND PARTS OF MAUI COUNTY ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
DISSIPATING FRONT CONTINUES DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEPICT BREEZY/GUSTY TRADE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS
THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY.

LONGER RANGE MODELS DEPICT THE STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST
SINKING GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
PUSHES THE LINGERING MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND BRINGS A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE STATE FOR THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
STRONG AS THOSE OBSERVED EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
E AND SE SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS.

NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO RUN NEAR 8 FEET AT THE
NEARSHORE CDIP BUOYS...BUT HAS DROPPED TO BELOW 6 FEET AT BUOYS
51001 AND 51101 DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE EXISTING HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE REST OF THIS EVENING...BUT WE EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BE DROPPED
AT MIDNIGHT AS SCHEDULED. THE NEXT ROUND OF ADVISORY LEVEL SURF IS
DUE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY TRADES MAY
ALSO PRODUCE HIGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF SOME ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE DECLINING NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL PRODUCE SEAS UP TO 10 FT AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THESE
ISLANDS THIS EVENING...BUT THE MAIN PURPOSE FOR THE SCA IS TO
COVER AREAS OF STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE SCA RUNS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF WINDS HOLD
LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THE SCA COULD BE EXPANDED FOR SEAS ON SUNDAY
DUE TO ANOTHER NORTHWEST SWELL...AND WILL LIKELY BE POSTED AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR AREAS OF STRONG NORTHEAST TRADES AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT HST TONIGHT FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...KINEL




000
FXHW60 PHFO 130630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY BREEZY EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY ACROSS MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND...WHILE GENTLE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS ALLOW FOR LEEWARD LAND AND SEA BREEZES ON OAHU
AND KAUAI. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL FOCUS PASSING SHOWERS OVER
WINDWARD SLOPES...MAINLY ON MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. NORTHEASTERLY
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVER THE AREA AS FRONTAL REMNANTS ARE CARRIED ACROSS THE STATE
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE MOVING INTO
SOME WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND...EAST MAUI AND MOLOKAI THIS
EVENING...AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE
KOOLAU RANGE ON OAHU AS WELL. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO
THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. THE
TRADE WINDS ARE STRONGEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...
WHILE WEAKER EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN HALF.
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH THE 00Z SOUNDINGS
MEASURING PWATS AROUND 0.9 INCHES AND STRONG INVERSIONS BASED
BETWEEN 6500 AND 8000 FEET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG MID
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY
SHOWS SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THAN
ELSEWHERE...BUT EVEN OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS THE ESTIMATED PWATS
ARE BARELY ABOVE ONE INCH.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...DRIVING MODERATE
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY...VEERING TO
GENTLE EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER OAHU AND KAUAI. SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST PREVALENT OVER WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI...BUT EVEN THERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
OAHU AND KAUAI...AS THIS FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP THOSE ISLANDS IN
THE RAIN SHADOW OF THE BIG ISLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER WINDWARD OAHU AT TIMES...AS THAT AREA CAN BE FAVORED
FOR RAINFALL IN EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS
LEEWARD SECTIONS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS BUT LITTLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL TRADE
WIND DIRECTION BY LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES KAUAI.

A TRANSITION TO A BREEZY AND RATHER WET TRADE WIND PATTERN IS
FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL PUSH A DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE TO KAUAI ON MONDAY. AN INCREASE IN
RAINFALL IS LIKELY ON KAUAI BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT DRIFTS
OVER THAT ISLAND...WITH THE BAND OF MOISTURE SPREADING OVER OAHU
AND PARTS OF MAUI COUNTY ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
DISSIPATING FRONT CONTINUES DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEPICT BREEZY/GUSTY TRADE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS
THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY.

LONGER RANGE MODELS DEPICT THE STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST
SINKING GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
PUSHES THE LINGERING MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND BRINGS A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE STATE FOR THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
STRONG AS THOSE OBSERVED EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
E AND SE SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS.

NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO RUN NEAR 8 FEET AT THE
NEARSHORE CDIP BUOYS...BUT HAS DROPPED TO BELOW 6 FEET AT BUOYS
51001 AND 51101 DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE EXISTING HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE REST OF THIS EVENING...BUT WE EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BE DROPPED
AT MIDNIGHT AS SCHEDULED. THE NEXT ROUND OF ADVISORY LEVEL SURF IS
DUE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY TRADES MAY
ALSO PRODUCE HIGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF SOME ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE DECLINING NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL PRODUCE SEAS UP TO 10 FT AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THESE
ISLANDS THIS EVENING...BUT THE MAIN PURPOSE FOR THE SCA IS TO
COVER AREAS OF STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE SCA RUNS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF WINDS HOLD
LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THE SCA COULD BE EXPANDED FOR SEAS ON SUNDAY
DUE TO ANOTHER NORTHWEST SWELL...AND WILL LIKELY BE POSTED AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR AREAS OF STRONG NORTHEAST TRADES AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT HST TONIGHT FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...KINEL





000
FXHW60 PHFO 130155
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
355 PM HST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...LOCALLY BREEZY EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND...WHILE
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS PRODUCE LEEWARD LAND AND SEA BREEZES ON OAHU
AND KAUAI. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL FOCUS MODEST SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD
SLOPES...MAINLY ON MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. NORTHEASTERLY TRADE
WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVER THE AREA AS FRONTAL REMNANTS ARE CARRIED ACROSS THE STATE
EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY SITS ABOUT 225 MILES NORTH OF KAUAI.
WITH THE RIDGE RELATIVELY CLOSE...LOCALLY BREEZY EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI...AND AN EAST-
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS IN PLACE NEAR OAHU AND KAUAI...WHERE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES ARE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN USUAL. A STRONG MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD IS MAINTAINING STABLE CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON
SOUNDINGS AND AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWING THE INVERSION RANGING FROM
4000 TO 7500 FT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UNDER AN INCH. THERE
IS AN UNIMPRESSIVE AREA OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER MOISTURE NEAR THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI...THOUGH LITTLE RAIN HAS BEEN MEASURED ANYWHERE
IN THE STATE TODAY.

MODELS SUGGEST THIS STABLE AND RATHER DRY PATTERN WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS TONIGHT AS THE WEAK AREA OF MOISTURE LINGERS...BUT
RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE WILL KEEP OAHU AND KAUAI SHADOWED FROM
THE MOISTURE...LIKELY MAINTAINING DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES ACROSS LEEWARD SECTIONS ON SATURDAY SHOULD PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDS BUT LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST DIRECTION ON
SUNDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES.

AN INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS AND PERIODS OF ACTIVE SHOWERS ON SOME
ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL PUSH A
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE ISLANDS ON MONDAY. AN
INCREASE IN RAINFALL IS DUE ON KAUAI BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BAND OF MOISTURE LIKELY MOVING OVER OAHU AND PARTS OF MAUI COUNTY
ON TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY PREDICTING
THAT WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH BREEZY TRADES CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ISLANDS TONIGHT. ISOL MVFR CIGS WITHIN
SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS E AND SE SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND
AND WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. BACKGROUND ESE WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN LATER TONIGHT AND MAY REQUIRE AN AIRMET
TANGO FOR TEMPO MOD TURB. NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES A SLOW DECLINE...BUT
READINGS FROM BUOYS 51001 AND 51101 SUGGEST THAT SURF WILL REMAIN
RIGHT AROUND THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLD INTO THE EVENING.
AS A RESULT...THE ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR MOST
NORTH FACING SHORES. THE NEXT ROUND OF ADVISORY LEVEL SURF IS DUE
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY TRADES MAY
ALSO PRODUCE HIGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF SOME ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE DECLINING NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL PRODUCE SEAS OF AROUND 10 FT IN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
THESE ISLANDS INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE MAIN PURPOSE FOR THE SCA
IS AREAS OF STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE SCA RUNS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF WINDS HOLD
LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THE SCA COULD BE EXPANDED FOR SEAS ON
SUNDAY DUE TO ANOTHER NORTHWEST SWELL...AND WILL LIKELY BE POSTED
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR AREAS OF STRONG NORTHEAST TRADES AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT HST TONIGHT FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU...KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI...AND THE BIG
ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR ALL WATERS AND
CHANNELS AROUND MOLOKAI...MAUI...AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...FOSTER





000
FXHW60 PHFO 130155
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
355 PM HST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...LOCALLY BREEZY EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND...WHILE
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS PRODUCE LEEWARD LAND AND SEA BREEZES ON OAHU
AND KAUAI. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL FOCUS MODEST SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD
SLOPES...MAINLY ON MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. NORTHEASTERLY TRADE
WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVER THE AREA AS FRONTAL REMNANTS ARE CARRIED ACROSS THE STATE
EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY SITS ABOUT 225 MILES NORTH OF KAUAI.
WITH THE RIDGE RELATIVELY CLOSE...LOCALLY BREEZY EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI...AND AN EAST-
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS IN PLACE NEAR OAHU AND KAUAI...WHERE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES ARE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN USUAL. A STRONG MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD IS MAINTAINING STABLE CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON
SOUNDINGS AND AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWING THE INVERSION RANGING FROM
4000 TO 7500 FT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UNDER AN INCH. THERE
IS AN UNIMPRESSIVE AREA OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER MOISTURE NEAR THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI...THOUGH LITTLE RAIN HAS BEEN MEASURED ANYWHERE
IN THE STATE TODAY.

MODELS SUGGEST THIS STABLE AND RATHER DRY PATTERN WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS TONIGHT AS THE WEAK AREA OF MOISTURE LINGERS...BUT
RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE WILL KEEP OAHU AND KAUAI SHADOWED FROM
THE MOISTURE...LIKELY MAINTAINING DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES ACROSS LEEWARD SECTIONS ON SATURDAY SHOULD PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDS BUT LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST DIRECTION ON
SUNDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES.

AN INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS AND PERIODS OF ACTIVE SHOWERS ON SOME
ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL PUSH A
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE ISLANDS ON MONDAY. AN
INCREASE IN RAINFALL IS DUE ON KAUAI BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BAND OF MOISTURE LIKELY MOVING OVER OAHU AND PARTS OF MAUI COUNTY
ON TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY PREDICTING
THAT WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH BREEZY TRADES CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ISLANDS TONIGHT. ISOL MVFR CIGS WITHIN
SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS E AND SE SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND
AND WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. BACKGROUND ESE WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN LATER TONIGHT AND MAY REQUIRE AN AIRMET
TANGO FOR TEMPO MOD TURB. NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES A SLOW DECLINE...BUT
READINGS FROM BUOYS 51001 AND 51101 SUGGEST THAT SURF WILL REMAIN
RIGHT AROUND THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLD INTO THE EVENING.
AS A RESULT...THE ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR MOST
NORTH FACING SHORES. THE NEXT ROUND OF ADVISORY LEVEL SURF IS DUE
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY TRADES MAY
ALSO PRODUCE HIGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF SOME ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE DECLINING NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL PRODUCE SEAS OF AROUND 10 FT IN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
THESE ISLANDS INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE MAIN PURPOSE FOR THE SCA
IS AREAS OF STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE SCA RUNS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF WINDS HOLD
LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THE SCA COULD BE EXPANDED FOR SEAS ON
SUNDAY DUE TO ANOTHER NORTHWEST SWELL...AND WILL LIKELY BE POSTED
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR AREAS OF STRONG NORTHEAST TRADES AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT HST TONIGHT FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU...KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI...AND THE BIG
ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR ALL WATERS AND
CHANNELS AROUND MOLOKAI...MAUI...AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...FOSTER




000
FXHW60 PHFO 122031
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.THE
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE STATE AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. SHOWERS
MAY INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS FRONTAL REMNANTS ARE CARRIED ACROSS
THE STATE IN THE TRADES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION... DRY AND STABLE TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
STATE...WITH A RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE IMPACTED WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS...BUT THESE
HAVE BEEN SPARSE AND WE REMAIN IN A BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL PATTERN
STATEWIDE.

MODELS SUGGEST THIS DRY AND STABLE PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE CHARACTER OF THE
TRADES AS THEY SHIFT TO A MORE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.  HI
RESOLUTION MODELS HINT THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS FROM OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND AS THE FLOW CHANNELS BETTER WITH
THE ISLAND TERRAIN ON SATURDAY. LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR KAUAI ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A COL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
MOVES NEAR THAT ISLAND.  THE TRADES BEGIN TO CHANGE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...BECOMING MORE LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY AS A HIGH
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH.

THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BLOW IN ON STRONG TRADES
WHICH WILL REALLY INCREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  SHOWERY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
WINDWARD AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE OLD FRONTAL
BAND.

MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE STATE LATER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH BREEZY TRADES CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ISOL MVFR CIGS WITHIN SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS E AND SE SECTIONS
OF THE BIG ISLAND AND WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. NO
AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE... THE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES WITH SURF HEIGHTS LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY 6
PM HST THIS AFTERNOON.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST HAWAIIAN
WATERS NOW...EITHER DUE TO THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL OR THE BREEZY
TRADES. SOME OF THESE MARINE ZONES WILL DROP OUT AT 6 PM HST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES. BUT THE SCA COVERING THE NORMALLY
WINDY WATERS FROM PAILOLO CHANNEL SOUTH TO SOUTH OF BIG ISLAND WILL
REMAIN WINDY ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT CONCERNS AND THE ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND NORTH AND EAST FACING
SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND. HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR WEST FACING SHORES
OF NIIHAU KAUAI AND OAHU.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR PAILOLO
CHANNEL...MAALAEA BAY...ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE
BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR ALL WINDWARD
WATERS...LEEWARD WATERS OF KAUAI AND OAHU INCLUDING THE KAUAI AND
KAIWI CHANNELS.


&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...BRENCHLEY
AVIATION...FOSTER





000
FXHW60 PHFO 121418
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
418 AM HST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN TURNS BRIEFLY SOUTHEAST SATURDAY.
THIS IS DUE TO A FRONT APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN UPON NEARING KAUAI THEN EASE DOWN THE ISLAND
CHAIN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BRINGING AN UPTICK
OF TRADE SHOWERS TO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN ISLANDS. BLUSTERY AND
GUSTY TRADES WILL ALSO BE SPREADING ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE IS AN UPTICK IN TRADE SHOWERS NOW AFFECTING THE WINDWARD
AND MOUNTAIN AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS CAME FROM
A DISSIPATED FRONT THAT STALLED JUST NORTH OF KAUAI EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATER THIS MORNING
ON OAHU AND KAUAI WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE LEEWARD AND SOUTHERN SHORELINE. MEANWHILE THAT BAND OF
SHOWERS EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND SHOULD BE REACHING THE PUNA DISTRICT
VERY SHORTLY. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL COME THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH
THIS BAND WILL SKIP ON OVER TO MAUI COUNTY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
AND MAY REACH OAHU THIS EVENING.

ON SATURDAY...THE WINDS ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS MAY VEER
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST RESULTING IN A HYBRID MIX OF LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLYWIND AND SEA BREEZES LEADING TO SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD
AREAS. THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL ALSO HAVE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

THE BREEZY EASTERLY TRADES WILL BE SCALED BACK FROM MAUI COUNTY
EASTWARD TO WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AFTER 6 PM HST THIS
AFTERNOON. FROM THIS POINT ON...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT THE
BREEZY TRADES AROUND THE BIG ISLAND IS SLATED TO LAST UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE TRENDING TO MORE MODERATE STRENGTH SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE ON SUNDAY...THE WIND TURNS BACK TO EASTERLIES ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AS THE FRONT STARTS TO
WEAKEN WHILE APPROACHING KAUAI. THE WIND CONTINUES TO BECOME
NORTHEAST AND STARTS TO STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. THEN THE REMNANT FRONTAL BAND FOLLOWS IN EASES ON TO
KAUAI MONDAY FOLLOWED BY OAHU MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ONLY A
CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD SECTIONS FROM KAUAI TO MAUI. EAST AND
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND MAY ALSO SEE TEMPO MVFR IN
LOWER CEILINGS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WARNING LEVEL SURF HAS LOWERED ENOUGH WHERE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NORTH SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF A FEW SELECTED ISLANDS. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
LOWER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH SURF HEIGHTS LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BY 6 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST HAWAIIAN
WATERS NOW...EITHER DUE TO THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL OR THE BREEZY
TRADES. SOME OF THESE MARINE ZONES WILL DROP OUT AT 6 PM HST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES. BUT THE SCA COVERING THE ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND ARE EXTENDED TO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE BREEZY TRADES. THE SCA COULD BE LOWERED FOR
SUNDAY...BUT THIS COULD BE SHORTLIVE AS THE NORTHEAST WINDS STRENGTHENS
TO SCA LEVELS ON MONDAY FOR MOST MARINE ZONES.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND NORTH AND EAST FACING
SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND. HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR WEST FACING SHORES
OF NIIHAU KAUAI AND OAHU.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL
AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR ALL WINDWARD
WATERS...LEEWARD WATERS OF KAUAI AND OAHU INCLUDING THE KAUAI KAIWI
AND PAILOLO CHANNELS AS WELL AS MAALAEA BAY.


&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...LAU
AVIATION...KINEL




000
FXHW60 PHFO 121418
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
418 AM HST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN TURNS BRIEFLY SOUTHEAST SATURDAY.
THIS IS DUE TO A FRONT APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN UPON NEARING KAUAI THEN EASE DOWN THE ISLAND
CHAIN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BRINGING AN UPTICK
OF TRADE SHOWERS TO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN ISLANDS. BLUSTERY AND
GUSTY TRADES WILL ALSO BE SPREADING ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE IS AN UPTICK IN TRADE SHOWERS NOW AFFECTING THE WINDWARD
AND MOUNTAIN AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS CAME FROM
A DISSIPATED FRONT THAT STALLED JUST NORTH OF KAUAI EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATER THIS MORNING
ON OAHU AND KAUAI WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE LEEWARD AND SOUTHERN SHORELINE. MEANWHILE THAT BAND OF
SHOWERS EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND SHOULD BE REACHING THE PUNA DISTRICT
VERY SHORTLY. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL COME THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH
THIS BAND WILL SKIP ON OVER TO MAUI COUNTY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
AND MAY REACH OAHU THIS EVENING.

ON SATURDAY...THE WINDS ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS MAY VEER
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST RESULTING IN A HYBRID MIX OF LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLYWIND AND SEA BREEZES LEADING TO SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD
AREAS. THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL ALSO HAVE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

THE BREEZY EASTERLY TRADES WILL BE SCALED BACK FROM MAUI COUNTY
EASTWARD TO WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AFTER 6 PM HST THIS
AFTERNOON. FROM THIS POINT ON...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT THE
BREEZY TRADES AROUND THE BIG ISLAND IS SLATED TO LAST UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE TRENDING TO MORE MODERATE STRENGTH SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE ON SUNDAY...THE WIND TURNS BACK TO EASTERLIES ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AS THE FRONT STARTS TO
WEAKEN WHILE APPROACHING KAUAI. THE WIND CONTINUES TO BECOME
NORTHEAST AND STARTS TO STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. THEN THE REMNANT FRONTAL BAND FOLLOWS IN EASES ON TO
KAUAI MONDAY FOLLOWED BY OAHU MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ONLY A
CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD SECTIONS FROM KAUAI TO MAUI. EAST AND
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND MAY ALSO SEE TEMPO MVFR IN
LOWER CEILINGS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WARNING LEVEL SURF HAS LOWERED ENOUGH WHERE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NORTH SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF A FEW SELECTED ISLANDS. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
LOWER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH SURF HEIGHTS LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BY 6 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST HAWAIIAN
WATERS NOW...EITHER DUE TO THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL OR THE BREEZY
TRADES. SOME OF THESE MARINE ZONES WILL DROP OUT AT 6 PM HST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES. BUT THE SCA COVERING THE ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND ARE EXTENDED TO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE BREEZY TRADES. THE SCA COULD BE LOWERED FOR
SUNDAY...BUT THIS COULD BE SHORTLIVE AS THE NORTHEAST WINDS STRENGTHENS
TO SCA LEVELS ON MONDAY FOR MOST MARINE ZONES.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND NORTH AND EAST FACING
SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND. HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR WEST FACING SHORES
OF NIIHAU KAUAI AND OAHU.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL
AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR ALL WINDWARD
WATERS...LEEWARD WATERS OF KAUAI AND OAHU INCLUDING THE KAUAI KAIWI
AND PAILOLO CHANNELS AS WELL AS MAALAEA BAY.


&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...LAU
AVIATION...KINEL





000
FXHW60 PHFO 121418
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
418 AM HST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN TURNS BRIEFLY SOUTHEAST SATURDAY.
THIS IS DUE TO A FRONT APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN UPON NEARING KAUAI THEN EASE DOWN THE ISLAND
CHAIN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BRINGING AN UPTICK
OF TRADE SHOWERS TO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN ISLANDS. BLUSTERY AND
GUSTY TRADES WILL ALSO BE SPREADING ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE IS AN UPTICK IN TRADE SHOWERS NOW AFFECTING THE WINDWARD
AND MOUNTAIN AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS CAME FROM
A DISSIPATED FRONT THAT STALLED JUST NORTH OF KAUAI EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATER THIS MORNING
ON OAHU AND KAUAI WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE LEEWARD AND SOUTHERN SHORELINE. MEANWHILE THAT BAND OF
SHOWERS EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND SHOULD BE REACHING THE PUNA DISTRICT
VERY SHORTLY. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL COME THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH
THIS BAND WILL SKIP ON OVER TO MAUI COUNTY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
AND MAY REACH OAHU THIS EVENING.

ON SATURDAY...THE WINDS ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS MAY VEER
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST RESULTING IN A HYBRID MIX OF LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLYWIND AND SEA BREEZES LEADING TO SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD
AREAS. THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL ALSO HAVE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

THE BREEZY EASTERLY TRADES WILL BE SCALED BACK FROM MAUI COUNTY
EASTWARD TO WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AFTER 6 PM HST THIS
AFTERNOON. FROM THIS POINT ON...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT THE
BREEZY TRADES AROUND THE BIG ISLAND IS SLATED TO LAST UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE TRENDING TO MORE MODERATE STRENGTH SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE ON SUNDAY...THE WIND TURNS BACK TO EASTERLIES ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AS THE FRONT STARTS TO
WEAKEN WHILE APPROACHING KAUAI. THE WIND CONTINUES TO BECOME
NORTHEAST AND STARTS TO STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. THEN THE REMNANT FRONTAL BAND FOLLOWS IN EASES ON TO
KAUAI MONDAY FOLLOWED BY OAHU MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ONLY A
CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD SECTIONS FROM KAUAI TO MAUI. EAST AND
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND MAY ALSO SEE TEMPO MVFR IN
LOWER CEILINGS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WARNING LEVEL SURF HAS LOWERED ENOUGH WHERE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NORTH SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF A FEW SELECTED ISLANDS. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
LOWER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH SURF HEIGHTS LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BY 6 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST HAWAIIAN
WATERS NOW...EITHER DUE TO THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL OR THE BREEZY
TRADES. SOME OF THESE MARINE ZONES WILL DROP OUT AT 6 PM HST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES. BUT THE SCA COVERING THE ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND ARE EXTENDED TO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE BREEZY TRADES. THE SCA COULD BE LOWERED FOR
SUNDAY...BUT THIS COULD BE SHORTLIVE AS THE NORTHEAST WINDS STRENGTHENS
TO SCA LEVELS ON MONDAY FOR MOST MARINE ZONES.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND NORTH AND EAST FACING
SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND. HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR WEST FACING SHORES
OF NIIHAU KAUAI AND OAHU.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL
AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR ALL WINDWARD
WATERS...LEEWARD WATERS OF KAUAI AND OAHU INCLUDING THE KAUAI KAIWI
AND PAILOLO CHANNELS AS WELL AS MAALAEA BAY.


&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...LAU
AVIATION...KINEL





000
FXHW60 PHFO 120702 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
905 PM HST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL STATE-WIDE
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS OF MOST ISLANDS
WILL OBSERVE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN TRADE SHOWERS BUT MORE SO FOR MAUI
AND THE BIG ISLAND. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN END OF THE ISLAND CHAIN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A NEW
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT
FRONT AS IT NEARS KAUAI MONDAY. THE REMNANTS THEN EASE EASTWARD
TO OAHU BY WEDNESDAY WHILE BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADES SPREADS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT THAT STALLED JUST NORTH OF KAUAI YESTERDAY
ARE NOW COMING IN WITH THE TRADE WINDS THAT WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY
THE SMALLER ISLANDS TONIGHT. IT IS NOT MUCH...SO JUST A FEW
SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...A BAND OF LOW
CLOUDS CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD WITH THE TRADES TOWARDS THE BIG
ISLAND. THE LEADING EDGE TO THIS BAND IS BETWEEN 75 AND 100 MI OFF
THE PUNA COAST. THE BAND SHOULD BE REACHING THE PUNA AREA A FEW
HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD TO MAUI COUNTY TOMORROW AND TO OAHU TOMORROW EVENING.

AT THE SAME TIME...THE TRADES WILL START VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST
/SE/ ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS STARTING AT DAY BREAK...WHILE THE
BIG ISLAND STAYS UNDER AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE
SMALLER ISLANDS MAY SETTLE UNDER AN HYBRID SITUATION WITH A LIGHT
EASTERLY WIND AND SEA BREEZE PATTERN LEADING TO SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD
AREAS. THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL ALSO HAVE A FEW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL REMAIN BREEZY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT HOLDS ON TO THIS PART OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE SURFACE
HIGH SUPPLYING THE WINDS WILL BE PARKED SOME 1700 MILES NORTHEAST
OF MAUI THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF AROUND
1030 MILLIBARS. SO THE BIG ISLAND IS LIKELY TO BE UNDER THIS
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITION THROUGH MOST OF NOT ALL OF THE THREE DAY
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CELL
PARKED NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS...WILL PUSH A DISSIPATING FRONT
TOWARD THE ISLANDS. KAUAI COUNTY WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE INCREASING
TRADE SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...SPREADING TO OAHU MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY. ALSO...THE NE TRADES WILL BE STRENGTHENING
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY...HOOKING UP WITH THE BREEZY EASTERLY
WINDS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT OF THIS OCCURRING.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...WITH
ONLY A CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS OVER
WINDWARD SECTIONS OF KAUAI AND OAHU.  WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND MAY ALSO SEE MVFR IN LOWER CEILINGS AND
SHOWERS LATER IN THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE DATA FROM THE WAIMEA BUOY IS ABOUT 2 HOURS OLD WITH THE LAST
REPORT AT 6 PM HST. HOPEFULLY IT COMES BACK ON LINE SOON. BUT
READINGS FROM THE HANALEI BUOY IS A VERY SLOW LOWERING TREND. AT
8 PM HST...THE SWELL HGT WAS 12.5 FEET AT 15 SECS TRANSLATING TO
SURF HEIGHTS OF BETWEEN 25 TO 30 FEET FOR THE NORTH FACING
SHORES. READINGS FROM BUOYS 51001/51101 SHOWS A SLIGHTLY QUICKER
LOWERING TREND...AND SHOULD BE SPREADING TO OUR LOCAL BUOYS LATER
TONIGHT. IF ANY...WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE WARNING FOR THE NORTH
AND WEST FACING SHORES TO BEYOND 6 AM HST FRIDAY.

THE OTHER AREA WE ARE MONITORING IS THE NORTH FACING SHORES OF THE
BIG ISLAND WHERE THE HILO BUOY IS SHOWING ELEVATED SURF CONDITIONS
NEAR OR AT WARNING LEVEL THERE.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST HAWAIIAN WATERS
NOW...EITHER DUE TO THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL OR THE BREEZY TRADES
ESPECIALLY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. SOME OF THESE
MARINE ZONES WILL DROP OUT BY 6 PM HST FRIDAY AS THE SWELL LOWERS.
BUT THE MARINE ZONES AROUND THE BIG ISLAND MAY BE EXTENDED INTO
THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE BREEZY TRADES. THE SCA WILL LIKELY BE
EXTENDED TO OTHER MARINE ZONES DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING TRADES
MONDAY.

&&

$$

LAU





000
FXHW60 PHFO 120700
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
900 PM HST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL STATE-WIDE
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS OF MOST ISLANDS
WILL OBSERVE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN TRADE SHOWERS BUT MORE SO FOR MAUI
AND THE BIG ISLAND. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN END OF THE ISLAND CHAIN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A NEW
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT
FRONT AS IT NEARS KAUAI MONDAY. THE REMNANTS THEN EASE EASTWARD
TO OAHU BY WEDNESDAY WHILE BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADES SPREADS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT THAT STALLED JUST NORTH OF KAUAI YESTERDAY
ARE NOW COMING IN WITH THE TRADE WINDS THAT WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY
THE SMALLER ISLANDS TONIGHT. IT IS NOT MUCH...SO JUST A FEW
SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...A BAND OF LOW
CLOUDS CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD WITH THE TRADES TOWARDS THE BIG
ISLAND. THE LEADING EDGE TO THIS BAND IS BETWEEN 75 AND 100 MI OFF
THE PUNA COAST. THE BAND SHOULD BE REACHING THE PUNA AREA A FEW
HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD TO MAUI COUNTY TOMORROW AND TO OAHU TOMORROW EVENING.

AT THE SAME TIME...THE TRADES WILL START VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST
/SE/ ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS STARTING AT DAY BREAK...WHILE THE
BIG ISLAND STAYS UNDER AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE
SMALLER ISLANDS MAY SETTLE UNDER AN HYBRID SITUATION WITH A LIGHT
EASTERLY WIND AND SEA BREEZE PATTERN LEADING TO SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD
AREAS. THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL ALSO HAVE A FEW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL REMAIN BREEZY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT HOLDS ON TO THIS PART OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE SURFACE
HIGH SUPPLYING THE WINDS WILL BE PARKED SOME 1700 MILES NORTHEAST
OF MAUI THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF AROUND
1030 MILLIBARS. SO THE BIG ISLAND IS LIKELY TO BE UNDER THIS
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITION THROUGH MOST OF NOT ALL OF THE THREE DAY
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CELL
PARKED NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS...WILL PUSH A DISSIPATING FRONT
TOWARD THE ISLANDS. KAUAI COUNTY WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE INCREASING
TRADE SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...SPREADING TO OAHU MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY. ALSO...THE NE TRADES WILL BE STRENGTHENING
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY...HOOKING UP WITH THE BREEZY EASTERLY
WINDS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT OF THIS OCCURRING.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...WITH
ONLY A CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS OVER
WINDWARD SECTIONS OF KAUAI AND OAHU.  WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND MAY ALSO SEE MVFR IN LOWER CEILINGS AND
SHOWERS LATER IN THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE DATA FROM THE WAIMEA BUOY IS ABOUT 2 HOURS OLD WITH THE LAST
REPORT AT 6 PM HST. HOPEFULLY IT COMES BACK ON LINE SOON. BUT
READINGS FROM THE HANALEI BUOY IS A VERY SLOW LOWERING TREND. AT
8 PM HST...THE SWELL HGT WAS 12.5 FEET AT 15 SECS TRANSLATING TO
SURF HEIGHTS OF BETWEEN 25 TO 30 FEET FOR THE NORTH FACING
SHORES. READINGS FROM BUOYS 51001/51101 SHOWS A SLIGHTLY QUICKER
LOWERING TREND...AND SHOULD BE SPREADING TO OUR LOCAL BUOYS LATER
TONIGHT. IF ANY...WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE WARNING FOR THE NORTH
AND WEST FACING SHORES TO BEYOND 6 AM HST FRIDAY.

THE OTHER AREA WE ARE MONITORING IS THE NORTH FACING SHORES OF THE
BIG ISLAND WHICH SHOWS ELEVATED SURF CONDITIONS NEAR OR AT WARNING
LEVEL THERE.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST HAWAIIAN WATERS
NOW...EITHER DUE TO THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL OR THE BREEZY TRADES
ESPECIALLY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. SOME OF THESE
MARINE ZONES WILL DROP OUT BY 6 PM HST FRIDAY AS THE SWELL LOWERS.
BUT THE MARINE ZONES AROUND THE BIG ISLAND MAY BE EXTENDED INTO
THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE BREEZY TRADES. THE SCA WILL LIKELY BE
EXTENDED TO OTHER MARINE ZONES DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING TRADES
MONDAY.

&&

$$

LAU





000
FXHW60 PHFO 120147
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
347 PM HST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL STATE-WIDE INTO FRIDAY. STABLE
AND RATHER DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS...WITH AN
INCREASE IN WINDWARD RAINFALL EXPECTED ON THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN END OF THE ISLAND CHAIN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
FRONT APPROACHES. THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL LIKELY FUEL INCREASED
SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP NORTHWEST OF THE STATE
DRIVES BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS OVER ALL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STABLE AND RATHER DRY TRADE WIND FLOW DOMINATES THIS AFTERNOON. A
RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS PASSING ABOUT 350 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS...WHILE RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE OVERHEAD. A
DIFFUSE BAND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS HAS PERSISTED
OVER AND EAST OF KAUAI...BUT NOT MUCH RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THIS
FEATURE...SINCE THE AFTERNOON LIHUE SOUNDING SHOWED THE INVERSION
AT 4500 FT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LESS THAN AN INCH. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY ACROSS THE REST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...WHERE
THE INVERSION IS CLOSER TO 3500 FT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IS JUST
OVER A HALF AN INCH ACCORDING TO THE HILO SOUNDING.

A STABLE A RATHER DRY TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
OVER MOST OF THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS WINDWARD KAUAI AS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED BAND LINGERS THROUGH THE EVENING. AN AREA OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY SITTING 225 MILES EAST OF HILO WILL DRIFT WESTWARD
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDWARD RAINFALL ON THE BIG
ISLAND AND EAST MAUI LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MINIMAL ELSEWHERE.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE
WILL STRENGTHEN AND EDGE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS. AS A
RESULT...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI WILL
CONTINUE...AND COULD POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN A NOTCH...WHILE WINDS
SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVER KAUAI AND OAHU. RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD SLOPES OF ALL ISLANDS...BUT A
HYBRID TRADE WIND AND SEA BREEZE PATTERN OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS
COULD PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OVER LEEWARD AREAS.

AN INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS AND PERIODS OF ACTIVE SHOWERS ON SOME
ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL PUSH A
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE ISLANDS ON MONDAY. AN
INCREASE IN RAINFALL IS DUE ON KAUAI BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BAND OF MOISTURE POSSIBLY MOVING OVER OAHU AND PARTS OF MAUI
COUNTY ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT
TRADE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH ITS TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER E AND NE FACING SLOPES ON KAUAI AND POSSIBLY OVER
OAHU OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADES INTERACTS WITH
ISLAND TERRAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS 51001 AND 51101 TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE HAVE SHOWN A
SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE NORTHWEST SWELL DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...MAINLY IN THE 12 TO 14 FT AT 14 TO 15 SECONDS RANGE.
GIVING THESE READINGS...THE HIGH SURF WARNING FOR MOST NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES FROM KAUAI TO MAUI HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WHILE WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND HAVE BEEN
TAKEN DOWN TO A HIGH SURF ADVISORY. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
REPLACED BY A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AFFECTED AREAS ON
THE SMALLER ISLANDS FOR FRIDAY. THE NEXT NORTHWEST SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST WATERS
DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS FROM THE LARGE SWELL...AND A SCA GOES INTO
EFFECT TONIGHT FOR LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT
BORDER LINE STRENGTH IN THE AFFECTED AREAS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WHILE THE AREAS AFFECTED SOLELY BY ELEVATED SEAS WILL
BRIEFLY DROP OUT OF THE SCA. ANOTHER NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS SEAS ON SUNDAY.

STRONGER TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MONDAY HOLIDAY. THE
WINDS...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY...WILL LIKELY INCREASE FIRST AROUND
KAUAI...THEN SPREAD DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU AND MOLOKAI...AND FOR NORTH
FACING SHORES OF MAUI.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR WEST AND NORTH
FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD
WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM HST FRIDAY
FOR MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXHW60 PHFO 120147 CCB
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
347 PM HST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL STATE-WIDE INTO FRIDAY. STABLE
AND RATHER DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS...WITH AN
INCREASE IN WINDWARD RAINFALL EXPECTED ON THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN END OF THE ISLAND CHAIN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
FRONT APPROACHES. THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL LIKELY FUEL INCREASED
SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP NORTHWEST OF THE STATE
DRIVES BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS OVER ALL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STABLE AND RATHER DRY TRADE WIND FLOW DOMINATES THIS AFTERNOON. A
RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS PASSING ABOUT 350 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS...WHILE RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE OVERHEAD. A
DIFFUSE BAND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS HAS PERSISTED
OVER AND EAST OF KAUAI...BUT NOT MUCH RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THIS
FEATURE...SINCE THE AFTERNOON LIHUE SOUNDING SHOWED THE INVERSION
AT 4500 FT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LESS THAN AN INCH. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY ACROSS THE REST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...WHERE
THE INVERSION IS CLOSER TO 3500 FT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IS JUST
OVER A HALF AN INCH ACCORDING TO THE HILO SOUNDING.

A STABLE AND RATHER DRY TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
OVER MOST OF THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS WINDWARD KAUAI AS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED BAND LINGERS THROUGH THE EVENING. AN AREA OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY SITTING 225 MILES EAST OF HILO WILL DRIFT WESTWARD
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDWARD RAINFALL ON THE BIG
ISLAND AND EAST MAUI LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MINIMAL ELSEWHERE.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE
WILL STRENGTHEN AND EDGE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS. AS A
RESULT...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI WILL
CONTINUE...AND COULD POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN A NOTCH...WHILE WINDS
SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVER KAUAI AND OAHU. RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD SLOPES OF ALL ISLANDS...BUT A
HYBRID TRADE WIND AND SEA BREEZE PATTERN OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS
COULD PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OVER LEEWARD AREAS.

AN INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS AND PERIODS OF ACTIVE SHOWERS ON SOME
ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL PUSH A
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE ISLANDS ON MONDAY. AN
INCREASE IN RAINFALL IS DUE ON KAUAI BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BAND OF MOISTURE POSSIBLY MOVING OVER OAHU AND PARTS OF MAUI
COUNTY ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT
TRADE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH ITS TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER E AND NE FACING SLOPES ON KAUAI AND POSSIBLY OVER
OAHU OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADES INTERACTS WITH
ISLAND TERRAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS 51001 AND 51101 TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE HAVE SHOWN A
SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE NORTHWEST SWELL DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...MAINLY IN THE 12 TO 14 FT AT 14 TO 15 SECONDS RANGE.
GIVING THESE READINGS...THE HIGH SURF WARNING FOR MOST NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES FROM KAUAI TO MAUI HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WHILE WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND HAVE BEEN
TAKEN DOWN TO A HIGH SURF ADVISORY. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
REPLACED BY A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AFFECTED AREAS ON
THE SMALLER ISLANDS FOR FRIDAY. THE NEXT NORTHWEST SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST WATERS
DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS FROM THE LARGE SWELL...AND A SCA GOES INTO
EFFECT TONIGHT FOR LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT
BORDER LINE STRENGTH IN THE AFFECTED AREAS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WHILE THE AREAS AFFECTED SOLELY BY ELEVATED SEAS WILL
BRIEFLY DROP OUT OF THE SCA. ANOTHER NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS SEAS ON SUNDAY.

STRONGER TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MONDAY HOLIDAY. THE
WINDS...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY...WILL LIKELY INCREASE FIRST AROUND
KAUAI...THEN SPREAD DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU AND MOLOKAI...AND FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES OF MAUI.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR WEST AND NORTH
FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD
WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM HST FRIDAY
FOR MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...BURKE





000
FXHW60 PHFO 120147
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
347 PM HST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL STATE-WIDE INTO FRIDAY. STABLE
AND RATHER DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS...WITH AN
INCREASE IN WINDWARD RAINFALL EXPECTED ON THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN END OF THE ISLAND CHAIN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
FRONT APPROACHES. THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL LIKELY FUEL INCREASED
SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP NORTHWEST OF THE STATE
DRIVES BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS OVER ALL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STABLE AND RATHER DRY TRADE WIND FLOW DOMINATES THIS AFTERNOON. A
RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS PASSING ABOUT 350 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS...WHILE RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE OVERHEAD. A
DIFFUSE BAND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS HAS PERSISTED
OVER AND EAST OF KAUAI...BUT NOT MUCH RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THIS
FEATURE...SINCE THE AFTERNOON LIHUE SOUNDING SHOWED THE INVERSION
AT 4500 FT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LESS THAN AN INCH. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY ACROSS THE REST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...WHERE
THE INVERSION IS CLOSER TO 3500 FT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IS JUST
OVER A HALF AN INCH ACCORDING TO THE HILO SOUNDING.

A STABLE A RATHER DRY TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
OVER MOST OF THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS WINDWARD KAUAI AS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED BAND LINGERS THROUGH THE EVENING. AN AREA OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY SITTING 225 MILES EAST OF HILO WILL DRIFT WESTWARD
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDWARD RAINFALL ON THE BIG
ISLAND AND EAST MAUI LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MINIMAL ELSEWHERE.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE
WILL STRENGTHEN AND EDGE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS. AS A
RESULT...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI WILL
CONTINUE...AND COULD POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN A NOTCH...WHILE WINDS
SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVER KAUAI AND OAHU. RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD SLOPES OF ALL ISLANDS...BUT A
HYBRID TRADE WIND AND SEA BREEZE PATTERN OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS
COULD PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OVER LEEWARD AREAS.

AN INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS AND PERIODS OF ACTIVE SHOWERS ON SOME
ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL PUSH A
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE ISLANDS ON MONDAY. AN
INCREASE IN RAINFALL IS DUE ON KAUAI BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BAND OF MOISTURE POSSIBLY MOVING OVER OAHU AND PARTS OF MAUI
COUNTY ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT
TRADE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH ITS TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER E AND NE FACING SLOPES ON KAUAI AND POSSIBLY OVER
OAHU OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADES INTERACTS WITH
ISLAND TERRAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS 51001 AND 51101 TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE HAVE SHOWN A
SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE NORTHWEST SWELL DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...MAINLY IN THE 12 TO 14 FT AT 14 TO 15 SECONDS RANGE.
GIVING THESE READINGS...THE HIGH SURF WARNING FOR MOST NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES FROM KAUAI TO MAUI HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WHILE WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND HAVE BEEN
TAKEN DOWN TO A HIGH SURF ADVISORY. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
REPLACED BY A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AFFECTED AREAS ON
THE SMALLER ISLANDS FOR FRIDAY. THE NEXT NORTHWEST SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST WATERS
DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS FROM THE LARGE SWELL...AND A SCA GOES INTO
EFFECT TONIGHT FOR LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT
BORDER LINE STRENGTH IN THE AFFECTED AREAS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WHILE THE AREAS AFFECTED SOLELY BY ELEVATED SEAS WILL
BRIEFLY DROP OUT OF THE SCA. ANOTHER NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS SEAS ON SUNDAY.

STRONGER TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MONDAY HOLIDAY. THE
WINDS...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY...WILL LIKELY INCREASE FIRST AROUND
KAUAI...THEN SPREAD DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU AND MOLOKAI...AND FOR NORTH
FACING SHORES OF MAUI.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR WEST AND NORTH
FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD
WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM HST FRIDAY
FOR MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...BURKE





000
FXHW60 PHFO 120147
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
347 PM HST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL STATE-WIDE INTO FRIDAY. STABLE
AND RATHER DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS...WITH AN
INCREASE IN WINDWARD RAINFALL EXPECTED ON THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN END OF THE ISLAND CHAIN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
FRONT APPROACHES. THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL LIKELY FUEL INCREASED
SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP NORTHWEST OF THE STATE
DRIVES BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS OVER ALL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STABLE AND RATHER DRY TRADE WIND FLOW DOMINATES THIS AFTERNOON. A
RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS PASSING ABOUT 350 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS...WHILE RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE OVERHEAD. A
DIFFUSE BAND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS HAS PERSISTED
OVER AND EAST OF KAUAI...BUT NOT MUCH RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THIS
FEATURE...SINCE THE AFTERNOON LIHUE SOUNDING SHOWED THE INVERSION
AT 4500 FT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LESS THAN AN INCH. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY ACROSS THE REST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...WHERE
THE INVERSION IS CLOSER TO 3500 FT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IS JUST
OVER A HALF AN INCH ACCORDING TO THE HILO SOUNDING.

A STABLE A RATHER DRY TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
OVER MOST OF THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS WINDWARD KAUAI AS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED BAND LINGERS THROUGH THE EVENING. AN AREA OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY SITTING 225 MILES EAST OF HILO WILL DRIFT WESTWARD
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDWARD RAINFALL ON THE BIG
ISLAND AND EAST MAUI LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MINIMAL ELSEWHERE.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE
WILL STRENGTHEN AND EDGE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS. AS A
RESULT...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI WILL
CONTINUE...AND COULD POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN A NOTCH...WHILE WINDS
SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVER KAUAI AND OAHU. RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD SLOPES OF ALL ISLANDS...BUT A
HYBRID TRADE WIND AND SEA BREEZE PATTERN OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS
COULD PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OVER LEEWARD AREAS.

AN INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS AND PERIODS OF ACTIVE SHOWERS ON SOME
ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL PUSH A
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE ISLANDS ON MONDAY. AN
INCREASE IN RAINFALL IS DUE ON KAUAI BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BAND OF MOISTURE POSSIBLY MOVING OVER OAHU AND PARTS OF MAUI
COUNTY ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT
TRADE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH ITS TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER E AND NE FACING SLOPES ON KAUAI AND POSSIBLY OVER
OAHU OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADES INTERACTS WITH
ISLAND TERRAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS 51001 AND 51101 TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE HAVE SHOWN A
SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE NORTHWEST SWELL DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...MAINLY IN THE 12 TO 14 FT AT 14 TO 15 SECONDS RANGE.
GIVING THESE READINGS...THE HIGH SURF WARNING FOR MOST NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES FROM KAUAI TO MAUI HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WHILE WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND HAVE BEEN
TAKEN DOWN TO A HIGH SURF ADVISORY. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
REPLACED BY A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AFFECTED AREAS ON
THE SMALLER ISLANDS FOR FRIDAY. THE NEXT NORTHWEST SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST WATERS
DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS FROM THE LARGE SWELL...AND A SCA GOES INTO
EFFECT TONIGHT FOR LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT
BORDER LINE STRENGTH IN THE AFFECTED AREAS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WHILE THE AREAS AFFECTED SOLELY BY ELEVATED SEAS WILL
BRIEFLY DROP OUT OF THE SCA. ANOTHER NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS SEAS ON SUNDAY.

STRONGER TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MONDAY HOLIDAY. THE
WINDS...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY...WILL LIKELY INCREASE FIRST AROUND
KAUAI...THEN SPREAD DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU AND MOLOKAI...AND FOR NORTH
FACING SHORES OF MAUI.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR WEST AND NORTH
FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD
WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM HST FRIDAY
FOR MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...BURKE





000
FXHW60 PHFO 120147 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
347 PM HST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL STATE-WIDE INTO FRIDAY. STABLE
AND RATHER DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS...WITH AN
INCREASE IN WINDWARD RAINFALL EXPECTED ON THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN END OF THE ISLAND CHAIN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
FRONT APPROACHES. THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL LIKELY FUEL INCREASED
SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP NORTHWEST OF THE STATE
DRIVES BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS OVER ALL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STABLE AND RATHER DRY TRADE WIND FLOW DOMINATES THIS AFTERNOON. A
RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS PASSING ABOUT 350 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS...WHILE RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE OVERHEAD. A
DIFFUSE BAND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS HAS PERSISTED
OVER AND EAST OF KAUAI...BUT NOT MUCH RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THIS
FEATURE...SINCE THE AFTERNOON LIHUE SOUNDING SHOWED THE INVERSION
AT 4500 FT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LESS THAN AN INCH. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY ACROSS THE REST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...WHERE
THE INVERSION IS CLOSER TO 3500 FT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IS JUST
OVER A HALF AN INCH ACCORDING TO THE HILO SOUNDING.

A STABLE AND RATHER DRY TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
OVER MOST OF THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS WINDWARD KAUAI AS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED BAND LINGERS THROUGH THE EVENING. AN AREA OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY SITTING 225 MILES EAST OF HILO WILL DRIFT WESTWARD
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDWARD RAINFALL ON THE BIG
ISLAND AND EAST MAUI LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MINIMAL ELSEWHERE.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE
WILL STRENGTHEN AND EDGE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS. AS A
RESULT...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI WILL
CONTINUE...AND COULD POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN A NOTCH...WHILE WINDS
SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVER KAUAI AND OAHU. RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD SLOPES OF ALL ISLANDS...BUT A
HYBRID TRADE WIND AND SEA BREEZE PATTERN OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS
COULD PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OVER LEEWARD AREAS.

AN INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS AND PERIODS OF ACTIVE SHOWERS ON SOME
ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL PUSH A
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE ISLANDS ON MONDAY. AN
INCREASE IN RAINFALL IS DUE ON KAUAI BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BAND OF MOISTURE POSSIBLY MOVING OVER OAHU AND PARTS OF MAUI
COUNTY ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT
TRADE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH ITS TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER E AND NE FACING SLOPES ON KAUAI AND POSSIBLY OVER
OAHU OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADES INTERACTS WITH
ISLAND TERRAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS 51001 AND 51101 TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE HAVE SHOWN A
SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE NORTHWEST SWELL DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...MAINLY IN THE 12 TO 14 FT AT 14 TO 15 SECONDS RANGE.
GIVING THESE READINGS...THE HIGH SURF WARNING FOR MOST NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES FROM KAUAI TO MAUI HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WHILE WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND HAVE BEEN
TAKEN DOWN TO A HIGH SURF ADVISORY. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
REPLACED BY A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AFFECTED AREAS ON
THE SMALLER ISLANDS FOR FRIDAY. THE NEXT NORTHWEST SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST WATERS
DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS FROM THE LARGE SWELL...AND A SCA GOES INTO
EFFECT TONIGHT FOR LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT
BORDER LINE STRENGTH IN THE AFFECTED AREAS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WHILE THE AREAS AFFECTED SOLELY BY ELEVATED SEAS WILL
BRIEFLY DROP OUT OF THE SCA. ANOTHER NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS SEAS ON SUNDAY.

STRONGER TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MONDAY HOLIDAY. THE
WINDS...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY...WILL LIKELY INCREASE FIRST AROUND
KAUAI...THEN SPREAD DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU AND MOLOKAI...AND FOR NORTH
FACING SHORES OF MAUI.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR WEST AND NORTH
FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD
WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM HST FRIDAY
FOR MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...BURKE





000
FXHW60 PHFO 111959
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
959 AM HST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL STATEWIDE INTO FRIDAY. STABLE
AND RATHER DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS...WITH A
FEW SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD KAUAI TODAY AND AN INCREASE IN WINDWARD
RAINFALL EXPECTED ON THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN END
OF THE ISLAND CHAIN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A FRONT
APPROACHES. THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL LIKELY FUEL INCREASED
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER WINDWARD SLOPES...DURING THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP NORTHWEST OF THE STATE
DRIVES BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STABLE A RATHER DRY TRADE WIND FLOW WILL DOMINATE OVER MOST OF
THE STATE TODAY. A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS PASSING ABOUT
300 MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...WHILE RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS IN
PLACE. THE OVERNIGHT HILO SOUNDING AND RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA INTO
HNL SHOW AN INVERSION DOWN BETWEEN 3500 AND 4500 FT...WHILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW AN INCH. A NARROW AND
DIFFUSE BAND OF SHOWER BEARING CUMULUS CLOUDS...THE TAIL END OF A
DISSIPATED FRONT...DROPPED DOWN OVER KAUAI OVERNIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT LOW END
MODERATE TRADE WINDS TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD KAUAI
THIS MORNING WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ELSEWHERE.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL HOLD INTO FRIDAY WHILE RIDGING ALOFT
MAINTAINS STABLE CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY SITTING
275 MILES EAST OF HILO WILL DRIFT WESTWARD...BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN WINDWARD RAINFALL ON THE BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. WINDWARD RAINFALL SHOULD BE MINIMAL ELSEWHERE.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE
WILL STRENGTHEN AND EDGE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS. AS A
RESULT...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI WILL
CONTINUE...AND COULD POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN A NOTCH...WHILE WINDS
SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVER KAUAI AND OAHU. RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD SLOPES OF ALL ISLANDS...THOUGH
SOME SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS.

AN INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS AND PERIODS OF ACTIVE SHOWERS ON SOME
ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL PUSH A
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE ISLANDS ON MONDAY. AN
INCREASE IN RAINFALL IS DUE ON KAUAI BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BAND OF MOISTURE LIKELY MOVING OVER OAHU AND PARTS OF MAUI COUNTY
ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT TRADE
WINDS COULD BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
THOUGH ITS TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE OVER MOST AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ISOL MVFR CIGS ON WINDWARD KAUAI...
MAINLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TODAY. DATA FROM BUOY
51001 SHOW THE SWELL HOLDING RELATIVELY STEADY THIS MORNING IN THE
14 TO 16 FT RANGE AT 14 TO 15 SECONDS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN WARNING
LEVEL SURF ACROSS MOST NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES TODAY...AND
ASSUMING THE DECREASE IN SWELL ENERGY DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL MID
DAY...THE HIGH SURF WARNING WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
FOR MOST OF THE AFFECTED AREAS ON THE SMALLER ISLANDS FOR FRIDAY.
THE NEXT NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL
SURF ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR MOST WATERS DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS FROM THE LARGE SWELL. TRADE
WINDS MAY ALSO INCREASE TO SCA STRENGTH IN THE TYPICALLY WINDY
WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU AND MOLOKAI...FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES OF MAUI...AND FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD
WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM HST FRIDAY
FOR MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

WROE





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