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000
FXHW60 PHFO 040203
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
403 PM HST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE TRADES WILL
FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS...WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
LATER TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KAUAI FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND CAUSE WINDS TO WEAKEN AND VEER FROM THE SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO
TRIGGER AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS ISLAND INTERIORS. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES KAUAI...WITH LOCALLY BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS BUILDING BEHIND IT THIS WEEKEND. TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AND WILL DRIVE PRIMARILY
WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 36N147W. THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND EQUATORIAL LOW SOUTH OF
HAWAII IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
STATE. MID-LEVEL RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS IS
PROVIDING STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW
INVERSIONS IN PLACE OVER THE STATE AT 6000 FEET WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN THE 1.1 TO 1.2 INCH RANGE. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM AN OLD FRONT
STREAMING TOWARD MOST OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DIRECTED OVER THE
WINDWARD SIDES OF KAUAI AND OAHU TODAY.

ANTICIPATING THE SHOWER BAND TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD TONIGHT WITH
THE BREEZY TRADES KEEP THE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE
HEAD INTO THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM LATE TONIGHT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS
WILL PASS OVER TO LEEWARD SIDES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

THE TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE EARLIER
MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY...LOOSENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE STATE. AS A RESULT...THE WIND FLOW
WEAKEN AND VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND
ALLOW DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP
OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR SECTIONS. THE CONVERGENCE OF SEA
BREEZES OVER THE ISLANDS WILL PRODUCE CONVECTIVE AFTERNOON CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS. HAVE ADDED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST FOR ALL
ISLAND INTERIORS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES KAUAI FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY
NORTHEASTERLY TRADES SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN THIS WEEKEND. THESE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE ON
SATURDAY...THEN WEAKEN BACK TO MODERATE BREEZES NEXT WEEK. THE
REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL ALSO
PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET TRADE WIND SHOWERS FROM SUNDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE LONG RANGE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS INDICATE THE TRADES WILL FOCUS SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD
SIDES OF THE ISLANDS FROM OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND.


&&

.AVIATION...
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADES TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. A BATCH OF SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS IS
MOVING OVER OAHU THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER PARTS OF
KAUAI TONIGHT. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

AIRMET SIERRA WAS POSTED THIS MORNING FOR NORTH THROUGH EAST PARTS
OF MOLOKAI AND OAHU AS THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVED OVER. ANTICIPATE
DROPPING MOLOKAI LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE AIRMET...AND POSSIBLY
OAHU. KAUAI MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AS THE BAND MOVES IN TO THE GARDEN
ISLE.

AIRMET TANGO CONTINUES FOR MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TONIGHT WITH THE MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS ADJACENT TO THE ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND...INCLUDING THE KAIWI CHANNEL THROUGH TONIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS FOR ALL OR MOST OF THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE WINDS DECREASE AND VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST MODELS SHOW INCREASING
NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. THESE WINDS MAY REACH THE SCA CRITERIA NEAR
KAUAI ON SATURDAY.

A SMALL LONG PERIOD WEST NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. A REINFORCING NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTH SWELLS WILL MAINTAIN
BACKGROUND SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH THURSDAY. A LONG
PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY...PEAK LATE SATURDAY ABOVE
THE SEASONAL SOUTH SWELL AVERAGE...AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE SURF WILL BE ELEVATED...WE ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY BELOW THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA. ON THE EAST FACING
SHORES...THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHOPPY
SURF THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN TAPER OFF AS THE WINDS WEAKEN.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAIWI CHANNEL-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND
LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...M BALLARD





000
FXHW60 PHFO 031959
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
959 AM HST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE TRADES WILL
FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS...WITH AN INCREASE IN TRADE
SHOWERS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KAUAI FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL CAUSE WINDS TO WEAKEN AND VEER
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES KAUAI...WITH LOCALLY
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS RETURNING TO THE STATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 35N148W. THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND EQUATORIAL LOW SOUTH OF
HAWAII IS RESULTING IN BREEZY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE. MID-
LEVEL RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS IS PROVIDING STABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR
REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM AN OLD FRONT STREAMING TOWARD MOST OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. EXPECT TO SEE THESE LINGERING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS...MOSTLY FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS...THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.

THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE BREEZY TRADES GRADUALLY WEAKENING
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED FROM
THE OLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT. WHILE
MORE OF THE SHOWER FOCUS WILL BE OVER THE WINDWARD SIDES...THE
BREEZY TRADE WINDS MAY TRANSPORT BRIEF TRADE SHOWERS OVER TO
LEEWARD SECTIONS OF SOME OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. EXPECT CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE KONA SLOPES OF
THE BIG ISLAND DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW THE WIND FLOW
WEAKENING AND VEERING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FROM LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
WEAKER BACKGROUND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW LOCAL AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP OVER LEEWARD AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
CONVERGENCE OF LOCAL SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE CLOUD BUILD
UPS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS DURING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT
REACHES KAUAI FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY NORTHEASTERLY TRADES SPREADING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THIS WEEKEND. THESE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY BREEZY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY. THE REMNANT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND...MAINLY FOR WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADES TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH INCREASED SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS IS DUE TO A BATCH OF SHOWERY
LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF THE CENTRAL ISLANDS. EXPECT SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

AIRMET SIERRA WAS RECENTLY DISCONTINUED AS CLOUDS HAD NOT
MATERIALIZED OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. IT MAY NEED TO BE RE-ISSUED
LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IF THE CLOUDS APPROACHING
THE CENTRAL ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHEAST BUILD UP OVER THE ISLANDS.

AIRMET TANGO CONTINUES FOR MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TONIGHT WITH THE MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS ADJACENT TO THE ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND...INCLUDING THE KAIWI CHANNEL. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE WINDS DECREASE AND VEER OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. THE FORECAST
MODELS APPEAR TO SHOW INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THESE
WINDS MAY REACH THE SCA CRITERIA NEAR KAUAI ON SATURDAY.

THE CURRENT SMALL...SHORT PERIOD NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY DECLINE TODAY. A NEW SMALL LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST
SWELL ARRIVING TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE STATE FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A REINFORCING NORTH-NORTHWEST
SWELL THIS WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE...SOUTH SWELLS WILL MAINTAIN
BACKGROUND SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH MID-WEEK. A
LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ARRIVING FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO PEAK LATE
SATURDAY ABOVE THE SEASONAL SOUTH SWELL AVERAGE...AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAIWI
CHANNEL.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...M BALLARD





000
FXHW60 PHFO 031451 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
407 AM HST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE TRADES WILL
FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS...WITH AN INCREASE IN TRADE
SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A LATE SEASON FRONT
APPROACHING KAUAI FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
CAUSE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE TO WEAKEN AND VEER FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND
NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES KAUAI...WITH
LOCALLY BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS RETURNING TO THE STATE
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 36N 151W HAS A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH A POINT ALMOST 800 MILES NORTH OF
LIHUE. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THESE FEATURES IS
MAINTAINING BREEZY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ALOHA STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING. MID-LEVEL RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS IS
PROVIDING STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS STREAMING TOWARD
MOST OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN BIG ISLAND.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE STATE CONTINUES TO
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EXPECT THE
BREEZY TRADE WINDS TO PERSIST. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A DECAYING FRONTAL BAND NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM TOWARD THE ISLAND CHAIN. THESE LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS. THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS
MAY TRANSPORT BRIEF TRADE SHOWERS OVER TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF
SOME OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING AND AT
NIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON OVER THE KONA SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

THE FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW THE WINDS WEAKENING AND
VEERING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES KAUAI FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES KAUAI FRIDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST
SHOWS THE TRANSITIONAL PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT STARTING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE WEAKER
BACKGROUND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW LOCAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE CONVERGENCE
OF LOCAL SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE CLOUD BUILD UPS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS WEEKEND. THESE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY BREEZY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY. THE REMNANT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE SHOWERS...
MAINLY FOR WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP A MODERATE TO BREEZY
TRADE WIND FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS...BUT BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
MAY IMPACT PHLI AND PHTO IN PASSING SHRA.

AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND
SOUTH THRU WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON ALL ISLANDS. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY.

AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH THRU EAST SECTIONS OF KAUAI DUE
TO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. THE AIRMET MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE OTHER ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS ADJACENT TO THE ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND...INCLUDING THE KAIWI CHANNEL. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE WINDS DECREASE AND VEER OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. THE FORECAST
MODELS APPEAR TO SHOW INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THESE
WINDS MAY REACH THE SCA CRITERIA NEAR KAUAI ON SATURDAY.

THE CURRENT SMALL...SHORT PERIOD NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY DECLINE TODAY. A NEW SMALL LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST
SWELL ARRIVING TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE STATE FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A REINFORCING NORTH-NORTHWEST
SWELL THIS WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE...SOUTH SWELLS WILL MAINTAIN
BACKGROUND SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH MID-WEEK. A
LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ARRIVING FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO PEAK LATE
SATURDAY ABOVE THE SEASONAL SOUTH SWELL AVERAGE...AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA
BAY...THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND THE PAILOLO AND
ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR THE KAIWI
CHANNEL.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...JELSEMA





000
FXHW60 PHFO 031407
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
407 AM HST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE TRADES WILL
FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS...WITH AN INCREASE IN TRADE
SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A LATE SEASON FRONT
APPROACHING KAUAI FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
CAUSE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE TO WEAKEN AND VEER FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND
NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES KAUAI...WITH
LOCALLY BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS RETURNING TO THE STATE
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 36N 151W HAS A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH A POINT ALMOST 800 MILES NORTH OF
LIHUE. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THESE FEATURES IS
MAINTAINING BREEZY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ALOHA STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING. MID-LEVEL RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS IS
PROVIDING STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS STREAMING TOWARD
MOST OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN BIG ISLAND.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE STATE CONTINUES TO
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EXPECT THE
BREEZY TRADE WINDS TO PERSIST. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A DECAYING FRONTAL BAND NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM TOWARD THE ISLAND CHAIN. THESE LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS. THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS
MAY TRANSPORT BRIEF TRADE SHOWERS OVER TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF
SOME OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING AND AT
NIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON OVER THE KONA SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS,

THE FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW THE WINDS WEAKENING AND
VEERING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES KAUAI FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES KAUAI FRIDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST
SHOWS THE TRANSITIONAL PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT STARTING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE WEAKER
BACKGROUND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW LOCAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE CONVERGENCE
OF LOCAL SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE CLOUD BUILD UPS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS WEEKEND. THESE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY BREEZY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY. THE REMNANT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE SHOWERS...
MAINLY FOR WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP A MODERATE TO BREEZY
TRADE WIND FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS...BUT BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
MAY IMPACT PHLI AND PHTO IN PASSING SHRA.

AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND
SOUTH THRU WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON ALL ISLANDS. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY.

AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH THRU EAST SECTIONS OF KAUAI DUE
TO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. THE AIRMET MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE OTHER ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS ADJACENT TO THE ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND...INCLUDING THE KAIWI CHANNEL. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE WINDS DECREASE AND VEER OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. THE FORECAST
MODELS APPEAR TO SHOW INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THESE
WINDS MAY REACH THE SCA CRITERIA NEAR KAUAI ON SATURDAY.

THE CURRENT SMALL...SHORT PERIOD NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY DECLINE TODAY. A NEW SMALL LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST
SWELL ARRIVING TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE STATE FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A REINFORCING NORTH-NORTHWEST
SWELL THIS WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE...SOUTH SWELLS WILL MAINTAIN
BACKGROUND SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH MID-WEEK. A
LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ARRIVING FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO PEAK LATE
SATURDAY ABOVE THE SEASONAL SOUTH SWELL AVERAGE...AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA
BAY...THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND THE PAILOLO AND
ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR THE KAIWI
CHANNEL.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...JELSEMA





000
FXHW60 PHFO 031407
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
407 AM HST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE TRADES WILL
FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS...WITH AN INCREASE IN TRADE
SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A LATE SEASON FRONT
APPROACHING KAUAI FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
CAUSE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE TO WEAKEN AND VEER FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND
NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES KAUAI...WITH
LOCALLY BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS RETURNING TO THE STATE
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 36N 151W HAS A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH A POINT ALMOST 800 MILES NORTH OF
LIHUE. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THESE FEATURES IS
MAINTAINING BREEZY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ALOHA STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING. MID-LEVEL RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS IS
PROVIDING STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS STREAMING TOWARD
MOST OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN BIG ISLAND.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE STATE CONTINUES TO
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EXPECT THE
BREEZY TRADE WINDS TO PERSIST. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A DECAYING FRONTAL BAND NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM TOWARD THE ISLAND CHAIN. THESE LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS. THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS
MAY TRANSPORT BRIEF TRADE SHOWERS OVER TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF
SOME OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING AND AT
NIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON OVER THE KONA SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS,

THE FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW THE WINDS WEAKENING AND
VEERING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES KAUAI FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES KAUAI FRIDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST
SHOWS THE TRANSITIONAL PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT STARTING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE WEAKER
BACKGROUND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW LOCAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE CONVERGENCE
OF LOCAL SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE CLOUD BUILD UPS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS WEEKEND. THESE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY BREEZY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY. THE REMNANT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE SHOWERS...
MAINLY FOR WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP A MODERATE TO BREEZY
TRADE WIND FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS...BUT BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
MAY IMPACT PHLI AND PHTO IN PASSING SHRA.

AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND
SOUTH THRU WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON ALL ISLANDS. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY.

AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH THRU EAST SECTIONS OF KAUAI DUE
TO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. THE AIRMET MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE OTHER ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS ADJACENT TO THE ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND...INCLUDING THE KAIWI CHANNEL. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE WINDS DECREASE AND VEER OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. THE FORECAST
MODELS APPEAR TO SHOW INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THESE
WINDS MAY REACH THE SCA CRITERIA NEAR KAUAI ON SATURDAY.

THE CURRENT SMALL...SHORT PERIOD NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY DECLINE TODAY. A NEW SMALL LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST
SWELL ARRIVING TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE STATE FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A REINFORCING NORTH-NORTHWEST
SWELL THIS WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE...SOUTH SWELLS WILL MAINTAIN
BACKGROUND SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH MID-WEEK. A
LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ARRIVING FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO PEAK LATE
SATURDAY ABOVE THE SEASONAL SOUTH SWELL AVERAGE...AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA
BAY...THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND THE PAILOLO AND
ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR THE KAIWI
CHANNEL.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...JELSEMA





000
FXHW60 PHFO 030625
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
825 PM HST MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE TRADES WILL
FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS...WITH AN INCREASE IN TRADE
SHOWERS EXPECTED STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT. A LATE SEASON FRONT
APPROACHING KAUAI FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WILL
CAUSE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE TO WEAKEN AND VEER FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND
NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE NEAR
KAUAI LATER THIS WEEK. TRADE WINDS MAY GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE
ISLAND CHAIN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 36N 151W HAS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST THROUGH A POINT MORE THAN 800 MILES NORTH OF LIHUE. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THESE FEATURES IS MAINTAIN BREEZY TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE ALOHA STATE EARLY THIS EVENING. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS IS MAINTAINING STABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS STREAMING TOWARD KAUAI THIS EVENING.
THERE ARE ALSO LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE WINDWARD SIDES OF MOST
ISLANDS. LOW CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE LEEWARD BIG ISLAND AS NIGHTTIME COOLING IS CAUSING DRAINAGE
FLOW TO SET UP THERE. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE FEW CLOUDS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE...THE RAGGED LEADING EDGE OF A NEARLY 100 MILE WIDE
BAND OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DECAYING FRONT IS ABOUT 165 MILES NORTH OF HONOLULU. THIS LEADING
EDGE IS ADVANCING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AHEAD
OF THIS DIFFUSE LEADING EDGE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT
LATER TONIGHT OVER WINDWARD KAUAI AND OAHU AS INCREASING MOISTURE
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE STATE MOVES SLOWLY
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXPECT THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS TO
PERSIST. THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG WINDWARD FACING SLOPES AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LEEWARD LOCATIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS WILL
HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS. EXPECT CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE KONA
SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS,

THE BAND OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DECAYING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE STATE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH AN EXPECTED ARRIVAL TIME OF TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BRING
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS...
WITH SOME SHOWERS SPILLING OVER TO LEEWARD LOCATIONS ON THE
SMALLER ISLANDS.

THE FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW THE WINDS WEAKENING AND
VEERING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES KAUAI FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL NORTH OF KAUAI BY FRIDAY...BEFORE IT DISSIPATES THIS
WEEKEND. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS THE TRANSITIONAL PERIOD AHEAD
OF THE FRONT STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. THE WEAKER BACKGROUND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW LOCAL
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP OVER
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE CONVERGENCE OF LOCAL SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY ALLOW
CLOUD BUILD UPS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS. NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPREAD
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS WEEKEND. THE REMNANT
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISSIPATED FRONT WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS
FOR WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP A MODERATE TO BREEZY
TRADE WIND FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS...BUT BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
MAY IMPACT PHLI OR PHTO IN PASSING SHRA.

AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND SOUTH
THRU WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON ALL ISLANDS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AIRMET SIERRA MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT FOR N THRU E SECTIONS
OF KAUAI DUE TO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS ADJACENT TO THE ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND...INCLUDING THE KAIWI CHANNEL. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY BEFORE WINDS DECREASE
AND VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS WEEK. THE FORECAST
MODELS APPEAR TO SHOW INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

THE CURRENT SMALL...SHORT PERIOD NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH TUESDAY. A NEW SMALL LONG PERIOD WEST-
NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A
REINFORCING NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL THIS WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE...
SOUTH SWELLS WILL MAINTAIN BACKGROUND SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES THROUGH MID-WEEK. A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ARRIVING FRIDAY
IS FORECAST TO PEAK LATE SATURDAY ABOVE THE SEASONAL SOUTH SWELL
AVERAGE...AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CHOPPY
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA
BAY...THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND THE PAILOLO AND
ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR THE KAIWI
CHANNEL.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...JELSEMA





000
FXHW60 PHFO 030159
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
359 PM HST MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLANDS INTO WEDNESDAY.
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SECTIONS...WITH AN INCREASE IN TRADE SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A LATE SEASON FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ISLANDS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CAUSING OUR WINDS TO WEAKEN AND VEER
FROM THE SOUTHEAST...AND ALLOWING SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP EACH
DAY. THE FRONT MAY STALL NEAR KAUAI BY THE END OF THIS WEEK...THEN
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH TRADE WINDS RETURNING DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS ARE PUSHING CLOUDS UP THE WINDWARD SLOPES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN FALLING OVER THE STATE. LEEWARD
LOCATIONS HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...OTHER THAN THE KONA SLOPES
WHERE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES HAVE BROUGHT ABOUT CLOUDY SKIES. OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS FAVORING THE WINDWARD AREAS AND MOUNTAIN SLOPES...WHILE
LEEWARD LOCATIONS WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT OVER WINDWARD
KAUAI AND OAHU AS INCREASING MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE IS PRODUCING THE ISLAND
TRADE WINDS...AND THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND HAWAII...OR ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF OAHU...WILL
GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE STATE WITH AN EXPECTED ARRIVAL
TIME OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWERS TO MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS
WITH SOME SHOWERS SPILLING OVER TO LEEWARD LOCATIONS ON THE
SMALLER ISLANDS.

TRADE WINDS LOOK TO WEAKEN AND TURN SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS WINDS VEERING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES FORMING OVER
LEEWARD AREAS. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NORTH OF KAUAI FRIDAY
WITH SEA BREEZES AGAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SEA
BREEZES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE
ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CLOUDS FOCUSED OVER INTERIOR
AREAS. MODERATE TRADE WINDS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH REMNANT
FRONTAL MOISTURE PROVIDING SHOWERS FOR WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS BUT THERE MAY
SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT PHLI AND PHTO IN PASSING SHRA
OVERNIGHT. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED OVER WINDWARD
SLOPES AS MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADES INTERACTS WITH TERRAIN.

AIRMET TANGO REMAINS POSTED FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND
IMMEDIATELY S THROUGH W OF MOUNTAINS OF ALL ISLANDS AS BREEZY TRADE
WINDS CONTINUE.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR THE WINDIER WATERS
AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND...AS WELL AS THE KAIWI
CHANNEL. THE SCA WILL REMAIN INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS
DECREASE AND VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. LOOK FOR TRADE WINDS TO REBOUND OVER THE WEEKEND.

A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY DECLINE THROUGH TUESDAY. A
NEW SMALL LONGER PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
BACKGROUND SOUTH SWELL THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE A NOTICEABLE BUMP
IN SURF HEIGHTS ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES FOR THE WEEKEND.
TRADE WINDS WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY SHORT PERIOD SURF ALONG EAST
FACING SHORES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR KAIWI CHANNEL.

&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
BURKE...AVIATION





000
FXHW60 PHFO 021951
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
951 AM HST MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLANDS INTO WEDNESDAY.
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SECTIONS...WITH AN INCREASE IN TRADE SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A LATE SEASON FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
ISLANDS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CAUSING OUR WINDS TO WEAKEN AND
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND ALLOWING SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP EACH
DAY. THE FRONT MAY STALL NEAR KAUAI BY THE END OF THIS WEEK...THEN
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH TRADE WINDS RETURNING DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS ARE PUSHING CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS INTO
THE WINDWARD SLOPES THIS MORNING WHILE LEEWARD LOCATIONS REMAIN MOSTLY
DRY WITH CLEAR SKIES. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING THE WINDWARD AREAS AND
MOUNTAIN SLOPES...WHILE LEEWARD LOCATIONS WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT
TONIGHT OVER WINDWARD KAUAI AND OAHU AS INCREASING MOISTURE
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE IS PRODUCING THE ISLAND
TRADE WINDS...AND THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND HAWAII...OR ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF OAHU...WILL
GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE STATE WITH AN EXPECTED ARRIVAL
TIME OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWERS TO MAINLY
WINDWARD AREAS WITH SOME SHOWERS SPILLING OVER TO LEEWARD
LOCATIONS ON THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

TRADE WINDS LOOK TO WEAKEN AND TURN SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS WINDS VEERING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES FORMING OVER
LEEWARD AREAS. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NORTH OF KAUAI FRIDAY
WITH SEA BREEZES AGAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SEA
BREEZES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE
ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CLOUDS FOCUSED OVER INTERIOR
AREAS. MODERATE TRADE WINDS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH REMNANT
FRONTAL MOISTURE PROVIDING SHOWERS FOR WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS BUT THERE MAY
SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT PHLI AND PHTO IN PASSING SHRA. BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED OVER WINDWARD SLOPES AS
MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADES INTERACTS WITH TERRAIN.

AIRMET TANGO REMAINS POSTED FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND
IMMEDIATELY S THROUGH W OF MOUNTAINS ALL ISLANDS AS BREEZY TRADE
WINDS CONTINUE.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR THE WINDIER WATERS
AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND...AS WELL AS THE KAIWI
CHANNEL. THE SCA WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE WINDS
DECREASE AND VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. LOOK FOR TRADE WINDS TO REBOUND OVER THE WEEKEND.

A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY DECLINE THROUGH TUESDAY. A
NEW SMALL LONGER PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A
NOTICEABLE BUMP IN SURF HEIGHTS ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES FOR
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY LARGER SOUTH SWELL IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TRADE
WINDS WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY SHORT PERIOD SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR KAIWI CHANNEL-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND
LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
BURKE...AVIATION





000
FXHW60 PHFO 021951
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
951 AM HST MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLANDS INTO WEDNESDAY.
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SECTIONS...WITH AN INCREASE IN TRADE SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A LATE SEASON FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
ISLANDS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CAUSING OUR WINDS TO WEAKEN AND
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND ALLOWING SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP EACH
DAY. THE FRONT MAY STALL NEAR KAUAI BY THE END OF THIS WEEK...THEN
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH TRADE WINDS RETURNING DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS ARE PUSHING CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS INTO
THE WINDWARD SLOPES THIS MORNING WHILE LEEWARD LOCATIONS REMAIN MOSTLY
DRY WITH CLEAR SKIES. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING THE WINDWARD AREAS AND
MOUNTAIN SLOPES...WHILE LEEWARD LOCATIONS WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT
TONIGHT OVER WINDWARD KAUAI AND OAHU AS INCREASING MOISTURE
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE IS PRODUCING THE ISLAND
TRADE WINDS...AND THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND HAWAII...OR ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF OAHU...WILL
GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE STATE WITH AN EXPECTED ARRIVAL
TIME OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWERS TO MAINLY
WINDWARD AREAS WITH SOME SHOWERS SPILLING OVER TO LEEWARD
LOCATIONS ON THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

TRADE WINDS LOOK TO WEAKEN AND TURN SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS WINDS VEERING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES FORMING OVER
LEEWARD AREAS. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NORTH OF KAUAI FRIDAY
WITH SEA BREEZES AGAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SEA
BREEZES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE
ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CLOUDS FOCUSED OVER INTERIOR
AREAS. MODERATE TRADE WINDS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH REMNANT
FRONTAL MOISTURE PROVIDING SHOWERS FOR WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS BUT THERE MAY
SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT PHLI AND PHTO IN PASSING SHRA. BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED OVER WINDWARD SLOPES AS
MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADES INTERACTS WITH TERRAIN.

AIRMET TANGO REMAINS POSTED FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND
IMMEDIATELY S THROUGH W OF MOUNTAINS ALL ISLANDS AS BREEZY TRADE
WINDS CONTINUE.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR THE WINDIER WATERS
AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND...AS WELL AS THE KAIWI
CHANNEL. THE SCA WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE WINDS
DECREASE AND VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. LOOK FOR TRADE WINDS TO REBOUND OVER THE WEEKEND.

A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY DECLINE THROUGH TUESDAY. A
NEW SMALL LONGER PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A
NOTICEABLE BUMP IN SURF HEIGHTS ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES FOR
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY LARGER SOUTH SWELL IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TRADE
WINDS WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY SHORT PERIOD SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR KAIWI CHANNEL-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND
LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
BURKE...AVIATION





000
FXHW60 PHFO 021327
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
327 AM HST MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SECTIONS...WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A LATE SEASON FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE ISLANDS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CAUSING OUR WINDS
TO WEAKEN AND VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND ALLOWING SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP EACH DAY. THE FRONT MAY STALL NEAR KAUAI BY THE END OF
THIS WEEK...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH TRADE WINDS RETURNING
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL TRADE WIND WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS HAWAII ON THIS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING QUICKLY FROM
EAST TO WEST WITHIN THE BRISK TRADE FLOW...WITH SOME MAINLY
WINDWARD GAUGES REPORTING LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER
INCH OR LESS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. AS EXPECTED...RAINFALL
DURING THE NIGHT HAS BEEN MOST PREVALENT OVER KAUAI AND OAHU.
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES
NORTH OF THE STATE. AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED BAND OF LOW
CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONT...IS LOCATED ABOUT
350 MILES NORTH OF OAHU AND IS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD. A DRY
AND STABLE AIRMASS PREVAILS OVER THE REGION...WITH THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS SHOWING STRONG INVERSIONS BASED AROUND 7000 FEET...AND
PWATS BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.2 INCHES. ALOFT...A STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED EAST OF MIDWAY...WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING ESE OVER THE ISLANDS.

BREEZY AND GENERALLY DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE FAR TO OUR NORTH WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD...MAINTAINING FRESH TRADE WINDS LOCALLY...WITH
CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD AREAS. A WETTER
TRADE WIND PATTERN SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AS ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
AN OLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND WIDESPREAD OVER WINDWARD AREAS
ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS SPILLING OVER INTO MANY LEEWARD AREAS OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...
WHEN MODELS SHOW A LATE-SEASON FRONT APPROACHING THE ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE LAST COUPLE OF GFS RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF
SOMEWHAT WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STAYING TO OUR
NORTH AND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WEAKENING FRONT HANGING UP NEAR
KAUAI BEFORE EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING. THIS IS GENERALLY IN LINE
WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST. THE LATEST ECMWF RUN BRINGS THE WEAK
FRONT A BIT FURTHER SE OVER THE STATE...BUT DOES STALL THE FRONT
NEAR OAHU. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
MORE CONSERVATIVE SOLUTION WITH THE FRONT STALLING JUST NW OF THE
ISLANDS. WE EXPECT A TRANSITION TO GENTLE SE BACKGROUND FLOW WITH
HAZY CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON SEABREEZES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG WITH SOME SLIGHT
INSTABILITY ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR/LEEWARD AREAS EACH AFTERNOON...AND A FEW LOCALLY HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MODELS EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THE FRONT
DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS
RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP A MODERATE TO BREEZY
TRADE WIND FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS...BUT BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
MAY IMPACT PHLI OR PHTO IN PASSING SHRA.

AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND SOUTH
THRU WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON ALL ISLANDS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY.

AIRMET SIERRA IN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF KAUAI DUE TO MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE HERE BY MID
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SUNDAY EVENING ASCAT PASS MISSED THE HAWAIIAN COASTAL
WATERS...BUT RECENT MESONET DATA SUGGEST THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ONGOING ACROSS THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND...AND A SCA IS
POSTED FOR THOSE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
PROBABLY CONTINUE FOR THESE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND THE SCA FURTHER OUT IN TIME.
WE HAVE ADDED THE KAIWI CHANNEL TO THE SCA WITH THE EARLY
MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE AS WELL.

A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY DECLINE THROUGH TUESDAY. A
NEW SMALL LONGER PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A
NOTICEABLE BUMP IN SURF HEIGHTS ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES FOR
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY LARGER SOUTH SWELL IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TRADE
WINDS WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY SHORT PERIOD SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR KAIWI CHANNEL-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND
LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...JELSEMA





000
FXHW60 PHFO 020630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS...WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS
OF AN OLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A LATE SEASON FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE ISLANDS THURSDAY...CAUSING OUR WINDS TO
WEAKEN AND VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT MAY STALL NEAR KAUAI
LATE THIS WEEK...THEN DISSIPATE WITH TRADE WINDS RETURNING DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL TRADE WIND WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS HAWAII ON THIS SUNDAY
EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING QUICKLY FROM
EAST TO WEST WITHIN THE BRISK TRADE FLOW...WITH A FEW GAUGES
REPORTING LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER INCH OR LESS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 1031 MB HIGH
CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES NORTH OF THE STATE. AN EAST TO WEST
ORIENTED BAND OF LOW CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING
FRONT...IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES NORTH OF OAHU. A DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS PREVAILS OVER THE REGION...WITH THE 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING
STRONG INVERSIONS BASED BETWEEN 6000 AND 7000 FEET...AND PWATS
BELOW ONE INCH. ALOFT...A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS
CENTERED JUST EAST OF MIDWAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING ESE OVER THE
ISLANDS.

OVERNIGHT...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE OVER WINDWARD
OAHU AND KAUAI...WITH A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERY CUMULUS POISED
JUST TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST OF THOSE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT OVER WINDWARD AREAS
AS OFTEN OCCURS...BUT EXPECT JUST SCATTERED AND LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THE EXISTING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

BREEZY AND GENERALLY DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE FAR TO OUR
NORTH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD...MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS LOCALLY...WITH CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS FOCUSED OVER
WINDWARD AREAS. A WETTER TRADE WIND PATTERN SHOULD DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITHIN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND WIDESPREAD OVER
WINDWARD AREAS ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS SPILLING OVER INTO MANY LEEWARD AREAS OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...
WHEN MODELS SHOW A LATE-SEASON FRONT APPROACHING THE ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 02/00Z GFS RUN HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT
WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STAYING TO OUR NORTH AND
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WEAKENING FRONT HANGING UP NEAR KAUAI
BEFORE EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
EXISTING OFFICIAL FORECAST. WILL AWAIT THE NEW ECMWF RUN...BUT AT
THIS POINT WE ARE LOOKING FOR DISRUPTED TRADE WINDS WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN
OF TRADE WINDS DURING THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE
PREVALENT...ESPECIALLY FOR LEEWARD AREAS THURSDAY/FRIDAY...DUE TO
ENHANCED MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND THE STATE AND SLIGHT
INSTABILITY ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP A MODERATE TO BREEZY
TRADE WIND FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS...BUT BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
MAY IMPACT PHLI OR PHTO IN PASSING SHRA.

AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND SOUTH
THRU WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON ALL ISLANDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY.

AIRMET SIERRA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS LATER
TONIGHT DUE TO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SUNDAY MORNING ASCAT PASS AND RECENT MESONET DATA SUGGEST THAT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ONGOING ACROSS
THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND...AND A SCA IS POSTED FOR THOSE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THESE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT SCA CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN SOME OF
THE OTHER CHANNELS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT
THE OVERNIGHT ASCAT DATA AND THE LATEST MODELS BEFORE DECIDING
WHETHER TO EXPAND THE SCA COVERAGE AREA.

A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY DECLINE THROUGH TUESDAY. A
NEW SMALL LONGER PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A
NOTICEABLE BUMP IN SURF HEIGHTS ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES FOR
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY LARGER SOUTH SWELL IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TRADE
WINDS WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY SHORT PERIOD SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...JELSEMA





000
FXHW60 PHFO 020132
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
332 PM HST SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS...WITH INCREASING IN TRADE WIND
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A LATE SEASON FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE ISLANDS THURSDAY...WHICH MAY CAUSE OUR
WINDS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS ARE PUSHING CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS INTO
WINDWARD OAHU THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE REST OF THE STATE REMAINS
MOSTLY DRY. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING THE WINDWARD AREAS AND MOUNTAIN
SLOPES...WHILE LEEWARD LOCATIONS WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE IS PRODUCING
THE ISLAND TRADE WINDS...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND HAWAII...OR ABOUT 500 MILES NORTH OF OAHU...WILL
GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE STATE WITH AN EXPECTED ARRIVAL
TIME OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWERS TO MAINLY
WINDWARD AREAS WITH SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING LEEWARD LOCATIONS AS
WELL.

TRADE WINDS LOOK TO WEAKEN AND TURN SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CURRENT MODELS SHOW DECREASING TRADE WINDS THURSDAY AND THE FRONT
ARRIVING OVER KAUAI AND OAHU FRIDAY...AND FRONTAL MOISTURE
REMAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD BE UNSEASONABLE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR AS FRONTS RARELY MAKE AN APPEARANCE IN HAWAII THIS
LATE IN THE SPRING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES A MORE CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH WITH THE FRONT AND GOES WITH THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO OF
THE FRONT STALLING NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS WOULD BRING SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AFTERNOON LEEWARD SHOWERS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH TRADE WIND WEATHER RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO PATCHY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN TRADE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY IMPACT
PHLI OR PHTO IN PASSING SHRA AGAIN TONIGHT. AIRMET TANGO REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND SOUTH THRU WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS ON ALL ISLANDS BELOW 8000 FEET. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS NEAR MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THESE WATERS LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL WILL REMAIN INTO TUESDAY. A NEW SMALL
LONGER PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A NOTICEABLE BUMP IN SURF HEIGHTS
ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TRADE WINDS
WILL PRODUCE SHORT PERIOD SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
POWELL...AVIATION





000
FXHW60 PHFO 011927
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
927 AM HST SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS...WITH INCREASING IN TRADE WIND
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A LATE SEASON FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE ISLANDS THURSDAY...WHICH MAY CAUSE OUR
WINDS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS ARE PUSHING CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS INTO
WINDWARD KAUAI AND OAHU THIS MORNING WHILE THE REST OF THE STATE
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING THE WINDWARD AREAS AND
MOUNTAIN SLOPES...WHILE LEEWARD LOCATIONS WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE IS PRODUCING OUR
TRADES WINDS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
HAWAII...OR ABOUT 500 MILES NORTH OF OAHU...WILL GRADUALLY WORK
ITS WAY TOWARD THE STATE WITH AN EXPECTED ARRIVAL TIME OF TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWERS TO MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS
WITH SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING LEEWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL.

TRADE WINDS LOOK TO WEAKEN AND TURN SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CURRENT MODELS SHOW DECREASING TRADE WINDS THURSDAY AND THE FRONT
ARRIVING OVER KAUAI AND OAHU FRIDAY...AND FRONTAL MOISTURE
REMAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD BE UNSEASONABLE AS
FRONTS RARELY MAKE AN APPEARANCE IN HAWAII AT THE BEGINNING OF
MAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND GOES WITH THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO OF
THE FRONT STALLING NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS WOULD BRING SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AFTERNOON LEEWARD SHOWERS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH TRADE WIND WEATHER RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO PATCHY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN TRADE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY...BUT
BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY IMPACT PHLI OR PHTO IN PASSING SHRA AGAIN
TONIGHT. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ON THE BIG ISLAND
HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS CLOUD COVER HAS DECREASED ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS. AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER
AND SOUTH THRU WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON ALL ISLANDS BELOW 8000 FEET.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS NEAR MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THESE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL WILL REMAIN INTO TUESDAY. A NEW SMALL
LONGER PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A NOTICEABLE BUMP IN SURF HEIGHTS
ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TRADE WINDS
WILL PRODUCE SHORT PERIOD SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
POWELL...AVIATION





000
FXHW60 PHFO 011927
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
927 AM HST SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS...WITH INCREASING IN TRADE WIND
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A LATE SEASON FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE ISLANDS THURSDAY...WHICH MAY CAUSE OUR
WINDS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS ARE PUSHING CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS INTO
WINDWARD KAUAI AND OAHU THIS MORNING WHILE THE REST OF THE STATE
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING THE WINDWARD AREAS AND
MOUNTAIN SLOPES...WHILE LEEWARD LOCATIONS WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE IS PRODUCING OUR
TRADES WINDS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
HAWAII...OR ABOUT 500 MILES NORTH OF OAHU...WILL GRADUALLY WORK
ITS WAY TOWARD THE STATE WITH AN EXPECTED ARRIVAL TIME OF TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWERS TO MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS
WITH SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING LEEWARD LOCATIONS AS WELL.

TRADE WINDS LOOK TO WEAKEN AND TURN SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CURRENT MODELS SHOW DECREASING TRADE WINDS THURSDAY AND THE FRONT
ARRIVING OVER KAUAI AND OAHU FRIDAY...AND FRONTAL MOISTURE
REMAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD BE UNSEASONABLE AS
FRONTS RARELY MAKE AN APPEARANCE IN HAWAII AT THE BEGINNING OF
MAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND GOES WITH THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO OF
THE FRONT STALLING NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS WOULD BRING SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AFTERNOON LEEWARD SHOWERS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH TRADE WIND WEATHER RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO PATCHY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN TRADE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY...BUT
BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY IMPACT PHLI OR PHTO IN PASSING SHRA AGAIN
TONIGHT. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ON THE BIG ISLAND
HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS CLOUD COVER HAS DECREASED ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS. AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER
AND SOUTH THRU WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON ALL ISLANDS BELOW 8000 FEET.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS NEAR MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THESE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL WILL REMAIN INTO TUESDAY. A NEW SMALL
LONGER PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A NOTICEABLE BUMP IN SURF HEIGHTS
ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TRADE WINDS
WILL PRODUCE SHORT PERIOD SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
POWELL...AVIATION





000
FXHW60 PHFO 011413
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
413 AM HST SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
CARRIED BY THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SECTIONS. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN TRADE SHOWER COVERAGE LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LATE SEASON FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY...WHICH MAY CAUSE OUR
WINDS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING FRONT IS LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES MILES NORTH OF LIHUE.
HOWEVER...A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N 164W...OR
ABOUT 960 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LIHUE...IS GRADUALLY BUILDING
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN TODAY...EXPECT ADDITIONAL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...OUR TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO REBOUND TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY SPEEDS.

ALOFT...MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ARE
MAINTAINING STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
STATE. THESE LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE MAINLY AFFECTING WINDWARD
FACING SLOPES AND HIGHER TERRAIN. IN ADDITION...THE INCREASING
TRADE WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN CARRYING BRIEF TRADE SHOWERS OVER TO
THE LEEWARD SIDES OF SOME OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...INCLUDING
OAHU...SINCE LAST EVENING.

THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING NORTH OR NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
MAINTAIN THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
STATE. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL ALSO KEEP STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THEREFORE...EXPECT
THE SAME GENERAL TRADE WIND SHOWER PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. BY MID-WEEK...ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE TRANSPORTED INTO
THE ISLANDS BY THE TRADE WIND FLOW. THEREFORE...EXPECT INCREASING
SHOWER COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS
OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG
TRADES MAY CARRY A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS OVER TO LEEWARD SECTIONS
OF SOME OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND IN THE
MORNING.

THE MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A LATE SEASON FRONT APPROACHING THE
ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF MODEL RUNS APPEAR TO BRING THIS FEATURE CLOSE TO KAUAI.
HOWEVER...SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN RUN-TO-RUN VARIATIONS IN THE
MODELS...THERE ARE STILL MANY UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT THE TYPE OF
WEATHER / WINDS THAT WE MIGHT EXPECT AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES
THE AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO INDICATE A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST THAT
A DIURNAL PATTERN OF AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND
BREEZES COULD DEVELOP. IF SO...EXPECT WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. VOLCANIC HAZE COULD ALSO
BE CARRIED UP OVER THAT SMALLER ISLANDS WITH THIS SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP A MODERATE TO BREEZY
TRADE WIND FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS...BUT BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
MAY IMPACT PHLI OR PHTO IN PASSING SHRA.

AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE AIRMET MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF THE OTHER ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE IN ALL AREAS BY 01/20Z.

AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND SOUTH
THRU WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON ALL ISLANDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SCATTEROMETER PASS OVER THE ISLANDS LAST EVENING CONFIRMED THAT
TRADE WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED. THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS
ADJACENT TO THE ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THESE WATERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL MARINE ZONES...SUCH AS THE
KAIWI CHANNEL...ADDED TO THE SCA DURING THE FEW DAYS.

A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL WHICH ARRIVED THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED
TO PEAK LATER TODAY...THEN SLOWLY LOWER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A NEW
SMALL LONGER PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A NOTICEABLE BUMP IN SURF HEIGHTS
ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS WILL PRODUCE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ROUGH
SURF CONDITIONS ALONG WINDWARD BEACHES AND REEFS ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH MID-WEEK. HOWEVER...SURF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG EAST FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY...THE
WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA
CHANNELS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...JELSEMA





000
FXHW60 PHFO 010634
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
834 PM HST SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FAR NORTH OF THE ALOHA STATE. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLANDS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY
THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS.
THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN TRADE SHOWER COVERAGE AROUND
WEDNESDAY. A LATE SEASON FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY WEAKEN THE
TRADE WINDS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FRONT LOCATED ABOUT 370 MILES MILES NORTH OF LIHUE HAS
TEMPORARILY WEAKENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 36N 167W...OR ABOUT 1040 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
LIHUE...IS GRADUALLY BUILDING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST.
AS THE FRONT WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TO TIGHTEN ONCE AGAIN. AS A
RESULT...TRADE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND AGAIN STARTING
SUNDAY.

ALOFT...MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ARE
MAINTAINING STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE.
THESE LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE MAINLY AFFECTING WINDWARD FACING
SLOPES AND HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING NORTH OR NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE RESULTING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE. A MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL ALSO KEEP STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE SAME
GENERAL TRADE WIND SHOWER PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. HOWEVER...BY MID-WEEK ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE OLD FRONT MAY REACH THE ISLANDS. IF SO...EXPECT
INCREASING TRADE SHOWER COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WINDWARD AND
MAUKA SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...AROUND WEDNESDAY.

THE MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW A LATE SEASON FRONT APPROACHING
THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK. THE 0000 UTC GFS AND 1200 UTC ECMWF MODEL RUNS APPEAR TO
BRING THIS FEATURE MUCH CLOSER TO KAUAI. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE
HAVE BEEN RUN-TO-RUN VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS...WE ARE KEEPING A
TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME IN THE FORECASTS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...IF THE FRONT IS CLOSER THAN EXPECTED...WE MAY
HAVE TO INDICATE WEAKER TRADES...AND POSSIBLY MOVE TOWARD A LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP A MODERATE TO BREEZY
TRADE WIND FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS...BUT BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS MAY IMPACT PHLI OR PHTO IN PASSING SHRA.

NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AIRMET TANGO WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND SOUTH THRU WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER THE
TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS ADJACENT TO THE ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY AND
THE BIG ISLAND. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THESE
WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A REINFORCING SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY LOWER EARLY NEXT WEEK. A NEW
SMALL LONGER PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A NOTICEABLE BUMP IN SURF HEIGHTS
ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES FROM THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS WILL PRODUCE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS ALONG WINDWARD BEACHES AND REEFS ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH MID-WEEK. HOWEVER...SURF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY...THE
WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA
CHANNELS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...JELSEMA





000
FXHW60 PHFO 010634
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
834 PM HST SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FAR NORTH OF THE ALOHA STATE. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLANDS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY
THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS.
THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN TRADE SHOWER COVERAGE AROUND
WEDNESDAY. A LATE SEASON FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY WEAKEN THE
TRADE WINDS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FRONT LOCATED ABOUT 370 MILES MILES NORTH OF LIHUE HAS
TEMPORARILY WEAKENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 36N 167W...OR ABOUT 1040 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
LIHUE...IS GRADUALLY BUILDING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST.
AS THE FRONT WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TO TIGHTEN ONCE AGAIN. AS A
RESULT...TRADE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND AGAIN STARTING
SUNDAY.

ALOFT...MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ARE
MAINTAINING STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE.
THESE LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE MAINLY AFFECTING WINDWARD FACING
SLOPES AND HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING NORTH OR NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE RESULTING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE. A MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL ALSO KEEP STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE SAME
GENERAL TRADE WIND SHOWER PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. HOWEVER...BY MID-WEEK ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE OLD FRONT MAY REACH THE ISLANDS. IF SO...EXPECT
INCREASING TRADE SHOWER COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WINDWARD AND
MAUKA SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...AROUND WEDNESDAY.

THE MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW A LATE SEASON FRONT APPROACHING
THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK. THE 0000 UTC GFS AND 1200 UTC ECMWF MODEL RUNS APPEAR TO
BRING THIS FEATURE MUCH CLOSER TO KAUAI. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE
HAVE BEEN RUN-TO-RUN VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS...WE ARE KEEPING A
TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME IN THE FORECASTS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...IF THE FRONT IS CLOSER THAN EXPECTED...WE MAY
HAVE TO INDICATE WEAKER TRADES...AND POSSIBLY MOVE TOWARD A LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP A MODERATE TO BREEZY
TRADE WIND FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS...BUT BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS MAY IMPACT PHLI OR PHTO IN PASSING SHRA.

NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AIRMET TANGO WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND SOUTH THRU WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER THE
TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS ADJACENT TO THE ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY AND
THE BIG ISLAND. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THESE
WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A REINFORCING SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY LOWER EARLY NEXT WEEK. A NEW
SMALL LONGER PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A NOTICEABLE BUMP IN SURF HEIGHTS
ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES FROM THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS WILL PRODUCE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS ALONG WINDWARD BEACHES AND REEFS ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH MID-WEEK. HOWEVER...SURF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY...THE
WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA
CHANNELS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...JELSEMA





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