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000
FXHW60 PHFO 252006
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1006 AM HST SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM AN OLD FRONT WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY ON SUNDAY. SOME
OF THIS MOISTURE WILL GET HUNG UP NEAR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE TRADES THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE FAR TO THE NORTHWEST. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE ISLANDS LATE IN THE
WEEK...BRINGING STRONGER TRADES...COOLER AIR...AND LOWER HUMIDITY
FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE IN A ZONE OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
TODAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT...AND DIMINISHING TRADES FROM AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE ABOUT 1100 MILES NE OF HONOLULU NEAR 33N146W. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS TO THE WSW FROM THE HIGH TO ABOUT 200
MILES NORTH OF KAUAI. THE HIGH IS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD THE
ESE...SO TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.

A NARROW BAND OF REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM AN OLD COLD FRONT
IS ABOUT 150 MILES TO THE NE OF THE ISLANDS... AND EXTENDS WELL TO
THE E. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL GET CARRIED OVER THE ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS TO MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS. A POCKET OF DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THIS BAND OF MOISTURE OVER
THE NORTHERN MAIN ISLANDS LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO GET HUNG UP OVER THE SOUTHERN MAIN ISLANDS INTO
MONDAY.

A FAIRLY TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ROUGHLY 700 MILES WSW OF KAUAI WILL
APPROACH THE ISLANDS AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...GRADUALLY
REPLACING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE STATE WITH WEAK
TROUGHING ALOFT. THIS WILL RAISE AND WEAKEN THE INVERSION OVER THE
STATE STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. MOISTURE OVERALL WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER...
SO TRADE WIND SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
MORE THAN AVERAGE. TRADES WILL BE LIGHT-TO-MODERATE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS A NEW...LARGE HIGH FAR TO THE NW BEGINS TO SHIFT ESE.

FOR THOSE WHO ARE READY FOR A TASTE OF COOL...BRISK FALL-LIKE
WEATHER BY HAWAII STANDARDS...IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS COMING BY THU
NIGHT OR FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH PASSES TO OUR N...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE ISLANDS WITH A
BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STRONGER...
COOLER TRADES AND MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED
RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS PERIOD TO MATCH THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WINDS WILL FOCUS PASSING SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS
TODAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS. LEEWARD AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR. ENHANCED MOISTURE AND SHOWERY CLOUDS FROM
AN OLD FRONT IS ADVANCING TOWARDS THE ISLANDS FROM THE NE. EXPECT
THIS TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS...BRINGING SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS. AN
AIRMET FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAYBE NEEDED AT THAT TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL SOUTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. EXPECTING A MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELL FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.

LARGE SCALE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LIGHT TO
MODERATE CATEGORY WHICH MEANS LOCALLY FRESH TRADES IN THE WINDIER
CHANNELS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A
STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
R BALLARD/EATON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 251330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
WITH SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. SOME OF THE LARGER
SHOWERS WILL REACH LEEWARD LOCATIONS AT TIMES...INCLUDING THE
HONOLULU METRO AREA. SHOWERS MAY INCREASE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
AS A WEAK FRONT REACHES THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTH. STABLE MODERATE
TRADES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN STRONGER TRADES
ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED FAR NNE OF THE ALOHA STATE
WILL KEEP A TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP FEEDING
TRADE WIND SHOWERS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS OVER WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE LARGER SHOWERS WILL REACH
LEEWARD LOCATIONS AT TIMES...INCLUDING THE HONOLULU METRO AREA.

INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A BAND OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ABOUT 200 MILES
N OF THE ISLANDS...AND MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA. MEANWHILE...A WEAKER
BAND OF SHOWERS IS NOW REACHING WINDWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS AND PROVIDING SOME OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ENHANCED MOISTURE
UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS. WINDWARD SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE ENHANCED MOISTURE PROBABLY LINGERING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL FURTHER INCREASE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY SUN AS THE LARGER FRONTAL CLOUD BAND REACHES THE ISLANDS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE AREA DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SOMEWHAT RAINFALL COVERAGE.
NEVERTHELESS....EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WITH PASSING SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIER
RAIN OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.

MODEL SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY ECMWF...SHOW THE HIGH PRESSURE FAR NNE
OF THE ISLANDS STRENGTHENING AGAIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH FAR NW OF THE AREA LIFTS OUT. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR THE HIGH TO INTENSIFY...BRINGING STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. THIS SCENARIO REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
WITH EACH ECMWF MODEL RUN. GFS SOLUTIONS WERE FOLLOWING A MORE
CONSERVATIVE SCENARIO...BUT THE LATEST RUN MAY BE HINTING TOWARDS
THE WINDIER SOLUTION. THUS...POTENTIALLY STRONGER TRADES COULD BE IN
STORE FOR THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. PASSING TRADE WIND CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS...IMPACTING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...WILL PROVIDE ISOLATED
MVFR CEILINGS TODAY. LEEWARD AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL SOUTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. EXPECTING A MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELL FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.

LARGE SCALE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LIGHT TO
MODERATE CATEGORY WHICH MEANS LOCALLY FRESH TRADES IN THE
WINDIER CHANNELS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...FOSTER







000
FXHW60 PHFO 250630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. SOME OF
THE LARGER SHOWERS WILL REACH LEEWARD LOCATIONS AT TIMES...INCLUDING
THE HONOLULU METRO AREA. SHOWERS MAY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND
EARLY SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONT REACHES THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTH.
STABLE MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
STRONGER TRADES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS FAR NNE OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND KEEPING A TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME IN PLACE
TONIGHT. RATHER ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP FEEDING TRADE
WIND SHOWERS...MAINLY FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.
BUT SOME OF THE LARGER SHOWERS WILL REACH LEEWARD LOCATIONS AT
TIMES...INCLUDING THE HONOLULU METRO AREA THIS EVENING AND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA DEPICT A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE ISLANDS MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA...LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES NE OF MAUI. MEANWHILE...A
WEAKER BAND OF SHOWERS BETWEEN THE ISLANDS AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS ALSO SLOWLY DRIFTING INTO THE AREA. BOTH THESE FEATURES WILL
COMBINE TO KEEP A RELATIVELY ACTIVE TRADE WIND SHOWER PATTERN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
SAT EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUN WHEN THE LARGER FRONTAL BAND REACHES
THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT SOMEWHAT RAINFALL COVERAGE. NEVERTHELESS....EXPECT
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WITH PASSING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAIN OVER WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS.

MODELS SHOW THE HIGH PRESSURE FAR NNE OF THE ISLANDS STRENGTHENING
AGAIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH FAR NW OF
THE AREA LIFTS OUT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR THE HIGH TO INTENSIFY...
BRINGING STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THUS...POTENTIALLY STRONGER TRADES COULD BE IN STORE FOR THE LATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT THIS EVENING. PASSING TRADE WIND CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS...IMPACTING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...WILL PROVIDE
ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. LEEWARD AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL SOUTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. EXPECTING A MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELL FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.

LARGE SCALE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LIGHT TO
MODERATE CATEGORY WHICH MEANS LOCALLY FRESH TRADES IN THE
WINDIER CHANNELS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

REYNES







000
FXHW60 PHFO 250145
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND PASSING SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. AN INCREASE
IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY
AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS SOUTH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE. STABLE
MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN INCREASE IN
WINDS AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS KEEPING A STABLE CAP ON THE AIRMASS OVER THE
STATE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...KEEPING WEATHER
PRODUCING FEATURES CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS.

A 1027 MB HIGH AT THE SURFACE CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST OF
THE STATE IS BRINGING TRADE WINDS TO THE STATE TODAY.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING ALONG IN THE TRADES IS KEEPING SHOWERS PASSING OVER
WINDWARD AREAS AND IN PLUMES TO THE LEESIDES OF SOME ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THAT A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS WILL INVADE LEEWARD
AREAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT.

A FRONTAL CLOUD AND SHOWER BAND IS LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN. THIS FEATURE AND A
WEAKER SHOWER BAND IN-BETWEEN THE ISLANDS AND THE FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE INITIAL
WEAKER BAND IS FORECAST TO WASH OUT AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MAY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO WINDWARD
AREAS.  IT LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE
ISLANDS IS TIMED FOR AROUND LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY...WITH
THE MORE DEFINED SECOND CLOUD BAND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
REMAINING FIRM THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOWER INTENSITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED WITH RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL BE FOCUSED WINDWARD AND A FEW
AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER MOUNTAIN RANGES...LIKE THE KOOLAU/S.

FOR THE BALANCE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD
IN TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK AS DEEP
TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST LIFTS OUT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT
FAR OUT GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY IN GUIDANCE...BUT IF THE
GFS SCENARIO PANS OUT WE MAY HAVE A 1035 MB HIGH 1200 MILES NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS DRIVING MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE ALOHA STATE BY HALLOWEEN. GFS ALSO DEPICTS A FRONT SLOWLY
DRIFTING SOUTH TOWARD THE ISLANDS BY NEXT WEEKEND.  HAVE KEPT
FORECAST VERY CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH ANY SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY FOCUSED
WINDWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL MAINLY AFFECT WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS
THIS EVENING. THE LOWER CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BRING TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS AS THEY MOVE WEST. FOR THE MOST PART...LEEWARD AREAS
WILL REMAIN VFR.

CURRENTLY...THERE ARE NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL SOUTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. EXPECTING A MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELL AROUND THE END OF
NEXT WORK WEEK.

LARGE SCALE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LIGHT TO
MODERATE CATEGORY WHICH MEANS LOCALLY FRESH TRADES IN THE
WINDIER CHANNELS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BRENCHLEY








000
FXHW60 PHFO 242023
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1015 AM HST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL STAY MODERATE THROUGH TODAY...THEN WEAKEN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
INITIALLY APPROACHES US...THEN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LEEWARD AREAS MAY SEE LOCAL
LAND AND SEA BREEZES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TRADE WINDS MAY INCREASE
AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS IN TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS KEEPING A STABLE CAP ON THE AIRMASS OVER THE
STATE TODAY. STILL...SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ALONG IN THE
TRADES IS KEEPING SHOWERS PASSING OVER WINDWARD AREAS THIS MORNING.
A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
IN ALL BUT THE TYPICALLY WETTEST WINDWARD AREAS. A FRONT-LIKE CLOUD
BAND IS LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLAND CHAIN AND THIS FEATURE AND A WEAKER SHOWER BAND IN-BETWEEN
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
INITIAL WEAKER BAND IS FORECAST TO WASH OUT AS IT MOVES OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AND IT LOOK LIKE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS THE ISLANDS IS TIMED FOR AROUND LATE SATURDAY AND
EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS FIRM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...SO SHOWER INTENSITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...AND THE
RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL BE FOCUSED WINDWARD AND A FEW AREAS DOWNWIND
OF THE LOWER MOUNTAIN RANGES...LIKE THE KOOLAU/S.

FOR THE BALANCE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD
IN TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK AS DEEP
TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST LIFTS OUT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT
FAR OUT GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY IN GUIDANCE...BUT IF THE
GFS SCENARIO PANS OUT WE MAY HAVE A 1035 MB HIGH 1200 MILES NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS DRIVING MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE ALOHA STATE BY HALLOWEEN. GFS ALSO DEPICTS A FRONT SLOWLY
DRIFTING SOUTH TOWARD THE ISLANDS BY NEXT WEEKEND.  HAVE KEPT
FORECAST VERY CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH ANY SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY FOCUSED
WINDWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL MAINLY AFFECT WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS
THIS MORNING AND LATER TODAY. THE LOWER CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BRING
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AS THEY MOVE WEST. FOR THE MOST PART...
LEEWARD AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR.

CURRENTLY...THERE ARE NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
A MINOR NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA LAST WEEKEND WILL FADE QUICKLY. THIS LOW WEAKENED BUT HAS
BEEN REPLACED BY A STRONGER LOW. MOST OF THE SWELL ENERGY WITH THIS
SECOND LOW WILL BE AIMED TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS...BUT WE SHOULD
CATCH THE WESTERN END OF THE SWELL REGION WHICH WILL BRING A SIMILAR
NORTHERLY REINFORCEMENT FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BRENCHLEY














000
FXHW60 PHFO 241330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL STAY MODERATE THROUGH TODAY...THEN WEAKEN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
INITIALLY APPROACHES US...THEN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LEEWARD AREAS MAY SEE LOCAL
LAND AND SEA BREEZES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TRADE WINDS MAY INCREASE
AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS IN TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 41N158W...FAR NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...HAS AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
30N153W AND 23N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND
EQUATORIAL LOW PRESSURE IS SUFFICIENTLY STEEP TO SUPPORT MODERATE
TRADE WINDS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS
PATCHES OF BROKEN SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN TRADE FLOW
UPWIND FROM THE ISLANDS...AND THE PATCH NOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND TRADE SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. WE EXPECT MODERATE
TRADES WILL LAST THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE RIDGE...INITIALLY APPROACHING THE ISLANDS. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW THE HIGH WILL BE SHOVED EASTWARD BY DEEP
TROUGHING IMPINGING ON IT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...KEEPING US WITHIN
TRADE FLOW. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLACKENS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH TO THE EAST. LEEWARD AREAS
MAY SEE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCAL LAND AND SEA BREEZES BY MONDAY OR
TUESDAY.

MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD IN TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK AS DEEP TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST LIFTS OUT.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT FAR OUT GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY
IN GUIDANCE...BUT IF THE GFS SCENARIO PANS OUT WE MAY HAVE A 1035 MB
HIGH 1200 MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS DRIVING MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ALOHA STATE BY HALLOWEEN. GFS ALSO
DEPICTS A FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH TOWARD THE ISLANDS BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL MAINLY AFFECT WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS
THIS MORNING AND LATER TODAY. THE LOWER CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BRING
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AS THEY MOVE WEST. FOR THE MOST PART...
LEEWARD AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR.

CURRENTLY...THERE ARE NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
A MINOR NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA LAST WEEKEND WILL FADE QUICKLY. THIS LOW WEAKENED BUT HAS
BEEN REPLACED BY A STRONGER LOW. MOST OF THE SWELL ENERGY WITH THIS
SECOND LOW WILL BE AIMED TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS...BUT WE SHOULD
CATCH THE WESTERN END OF THE SWELL REGION WHICH WILL BRING A SIMILAR
NORTHERLY REINFORCEMENT FOR SATURDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
POWELL











000
FXHW60 PHFO 240630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL STAY MODERATE THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WEAKEN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
INITIALLY APPROACHES US...THEN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LEEWARD AREAS MAY SEE LOCAL
LAND AND SEA BREEZES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TRADE WINDS MAY INCREASE
AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS IN TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1032 MB HIGH NEAR 40N160W...FAR NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...HAS AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
30N153W AND 25N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND
EQUATORIAL LOW PRESSURE STEEPENED THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TRADE
WINDS TO BUILD UP TO MODERATE LEVELS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS. SATELLITE
LOOP SHOWS PATCHES OF BROKEN SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN
TRADE FLOW UPWIND FROM THE ISLANDS...AND ONE OF THESE PATCHES JUST
TO OUR EAST WILL DELIVER INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND TRADE SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS TONIGHT. WE EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
RIDGE...INITIALLY APPROACHING THE ISLANDS. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW THE HIGH WILL BE SHOVED EASTWARD AS DEEP
TROUGHING IMPINGES ON IT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...KEEPING US WITHIN
TRADE FLOW. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A PRESSURE
GRADIENT WHICH WILL SLACKEN WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH TO THE
EAST. LEEWARD AREAS MAY SEE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCAL LAND AND SEA
BREEZES BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD IN TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK AS DEEP TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST LIFTS OUT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT FAR OUT GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY IN
GUIDANCE...BUT IF THE GFS SCENARIO PANS OUT WE MAY HAVE A 1037 MB
HIGH 1200 MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS DRIVING MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ALOHA STATE BY HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL MAINLY AFFECT WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  THE LOWER CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BRING
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AS THEY MOVE WEST.  FOR THE MOST PART...
LEEWARD AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR.

CURRENTLY...THERE ARE NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
A MINOR NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA LAST WEEKEND ARRIVED TODAY BUT WILL FADE QUICKLY. THIS
LOW WEAKENED BUT HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A STRONGER LOW. MOST OF THE
SWELL ENERGY WITH THIS SECOND LOW WILL BE AIMED TO THE EAST OF THE
ISLANDS...BUT WE SHOULD CATCH THE WESTERN END OF THE SWELL REGION
WHICH WILL BRING A SIMILAR NORTHERLY REINFORCEMENT FOR SATURDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
POWELL










000
FXHW60 PHFO 240139
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
339 PM HST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL BRING ONE MORE
DAY OF MODERATE TRADES BEFORE THE WINDS SLACKEN AGAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS...WITH
LESS MOISTURE...MORE SUNSHINE...AND FEWER SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TRADES HAVE RETURNED TO SOME AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN HAWAII AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
BEGINS TO QUICKLY NUDGE SOUTHEAST. FOR A LITTLE WHILE...THE
WEATHER MAP OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC IS ALMOST GOING TO LOOK SEMI-
NORMAL...WITH THE HIGH HEADED ESE TO NEAR 32N 135W BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SO...WE MAY BE ABLE TO ENJOY ONE MORE DAY OF LOW-END
MODERATE TRADE WINDS BEFORE THE WINDS SLOWLY BACK OFF AGAIN DAY
BY DAY. MANY AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DIURNAL LAND AND SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN THE LONG RANGE...THERE IS SOME HOPE THAT A
STRONGER HIGH WILL FRESHEN UP THE TRADE WINDS STARTING NEXT THU...
BUT THIS IS A LONG WAY OUT AND THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY IN THE GUIDANCE.

WHILE MOST OF THE STATE HAS HAD LOTS OF SUNSHINE TODAY...A BAND OF
LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT
IS HUNG UP JUST SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS. THIS RESULTED
IN A FEW DOWNPOURS OVER WEST KAUAI AND SOUTH BIG ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE BAND IS BEING PULLED NW INTO THE CIRCULATION
OF TROPICAL STORM ANA FAR TO THE NW. AS THIS MOISTURE SLOWLY MOVES
AWAY... A MORE TYPICAL DISTRIBUTION OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED STARTING TONIGHT WITH MAINLY NIGHT AND MORNING SHOWERS
EXPECTED WINDWARD AND MAUKA AS WEAK TROUGHS IN THE EASTERLIES MOVE
THROUGH. AVAILABLE MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADES IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH TIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND...REACHING A WELL
BELOW-NORMAL MINIMUM ABOUT MONDAY...WHEN WE SHOULD SEE LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A STRIPE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING WEST OF THE STATE THROUGH TONIGHT. AIRMET SIERRA
FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE
KAUAI...BUT WOULD EXPECT THIS TO BE DROPPED SHORTLY AS SHOWER
ACTIVITY DECREASES IN THAT AREA. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS
OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONTINUING ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
A MINOR NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA LAST WEEKEND ARRIVED TODAY BUT WILL FADE QUICKLY. THIS
LOW WEAKENED BUT HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A STRONGER LOW. MOST OF THE
SWELL ENERGY WITH THIS SECOND LOW WILL BE AIMED TO THE EAST OF THE
ISLANDS...BUT WE SHOULD CATCH THE WESTERN END OF THE SWELL REGION
WHICH WILL BRING A SIMILAR NORTHERLY REINFORCEMENT FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
R BALLARD






000
FXHW60 PHFO 231921
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
921 AM HST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP
TRADE WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS...WITH LAND
AND SEA BREEZES FOR MANY AREAS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...WITH A POCKET OF DRIER AIR BRINGING
FEWER SHOWERS AND MORE SUNSHINE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH
SURFACE WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. THIS IS DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC KEEPING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE FARTHER S...NEAR 28N...AND MUCH WEAKER THAN NORMAL. HIGH
PRESSURE S OF THE ALEUTIANS IS GOING TO SLIDE QUICKLY SE AND TAKE
UP RESIDENCE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND NEAR 32N 135W.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A WEAK REINFORCEMENT TO THE TRADES FOR SOME
AREAS STARTING LATER TODAY AND LASTING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE DIURNAL LAND/SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS IN
MANY AREAS.

A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS IN THE EASTERLIES...WHICH ARE THE REMNANTS
OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PASSED TO OUR NORTH SEVERAL DAYS
AGO...ARE BRINGING WAVES OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE OVER
THE ISLANDS. ONE SUCH WAVE MOVED OVER THE ISLANDS YESTERDAY AND IS
CURRENTLY ON THE WAY OUT. ANOTHER WEAKER TROUGH NEAR 152W SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...AND PERHAPS
ANOTHER WEAK ONE NEAR 140W THAT MAY NOT EVEN HOLD TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH TO GET TO US. EACH ONE OF THESE CAN BRING A MINOR UPTICK IN
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS...WITH
FEWER SHOWERS AND MORE SUNSHINE IN BETWEEN. MUCH DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED FOR MON AND TUE...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR RELATIVELY DRY
WEATHER. ALTHOUGH THE DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER...THE
INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL MAKE THE DAYTIME HOURS STILL FEEL RATHER
HOT.

&&

.AVIATION...
A STRIPE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT WEST OF THE STATE TODAY. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE STATE...BUT
WOULD EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY AS A DRIER AIRMASS
SPREADS IN FROM THE EAST ALONG WITH INCREASING TRADE WINDS. VFR
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS TONIGHT...WITH
VFR CONTINUING ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
A MINOR NORTHERLY BUMP...GENERATED BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA LAST WEEKEND...WILL ARRIVE ON NORTHERN SHORES TODAY BUT
FADE QUICKLY. THE FIRST LOW WEAKENED BUT HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A
STRONGER LOW. MOST OF THE SWELL ENERGY WITH THIS LOW WILL BE AIMED
TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS...BUT WE SHOULD CATCH THE WESTERN END
WHICH WILL BRING A SMALL NORTHERLY REINFORCEMENT FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...R BALLARD
AVIATION...JACOBSON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 231921
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
921 AM HST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP
TRADE WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS...WITH LAND
AND SEA BREEZES FOR MANY AREAS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...WITH A POCKET OF DRIER AIR BRINGING
FEWER SHOWERS AND MORE SUNSHINE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH
SURFACE WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. THIS IS DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC KEEPING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE FARTHER S...NEAR 28N...AND MUCH WEAKER THAN NORMAL. HIGH
PRESSURE S OF THE ALEUTIANS IS GOING TO SLIDE QUICKLY SE AND TAKE
UP RESIDENCE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND NEAR 32N 135W.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A WEAK REINFORCEMENT TO THE TRADES FOR SOME
AREAS STARTING LATER TODAY AND LASTING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE DIURNAL LAND/SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS IN
MANY AREAS.

A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS IN THE EASTERLIES...WHICH ARE THE REMNANTS
OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PASSED TO OUR NORTH SEVERAL DAYS
AGO...ARE BRINGING WAVES OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE OVER
THE ISLANDS. ONE SUCH WAVE MOVED OVER THE ISLANDS YESTERDAY AND IS
CURRENTLY ON THE WAY OUT. ANOTHER WEAKER TROUGH NEAR 152W SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...AND PERHAPS
ANOTHER WEAK ONE NEAR 140W THAT MAY NOT EVEN HOLD TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH TO GET TO US. EACH ONE OF THESE CAN BRING A MINOR UPTICK IN
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS...WITH
FEWER SHOWERS AND MORE SUNSHINE IN BETWEEN. MUCH DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED FOR MON AND TUE...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR RELATIVELY DRY
WEATHER. ALTHOUGH THE DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER...THE
INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL MAKE THE DAYTIME HOURS STILL FEEL RATHER
HOT.

&&

.AVIATION...
A STRIPE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT WEST OF THE STATE TODAY. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE STATE...BUT
WOULD EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY AS A DRIER AIRMASS
SPREADS IN FROM THE EAST ALONG WITH INCREASING TRADE WINDS. VFR
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS TONIGHT...WITH
VFR CONTINUING ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
A MINOR NORTHERLY BUMP...GENERATED BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA LAST WEEKEND...WILL ARRIVE ON NORTHERN SHORES TODAY BUT
FADE QUICKLY. THE FIRST LOW WEAKENED BUT HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A
STRONGER LOW. MOST OF THE SWELL ENERGY WITH THIS LOW WILL BE AIMED
TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS...BUT WE SHOULD CATCH THE WESTERN END
WHICH WILL BRING A SMALL NORTHERLY REINFORCEMENT FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...R BALLARD
AVIATION...JACOBSON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 231348
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
348 AM HST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL BRING SHOWERS INTO WINDWARD AREAS THIS
MORNING WITH SOME RAINFALL SPILLING OVER LEEWARD LOCATIONS. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH... AND LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT INCREASING SHOWERS TONIGHT AS A BATCH OF
MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE AT NIGHT WHILE DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY. MUGGY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO CHURN FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE.
ANA/S LOW PRESSURE AND POSITION HAS REDUCED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER HAWAII AND HAS TURNED WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. LINGERING MOISTURE
FROM AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN SOME INCREASED SHOWERS
OVER KAUAI AND OAHU THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING WEST OF THE ISLANDS
LATE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS A BATCH OF
MOISTURE CURRENTLY NEAR 22N 153W... OR 275 MILES EAST OF OAHU...
PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE.

ANA WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK TODAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD OVER THE STATE FROM THE NORTH...AND TURN OUR WINDS TO A
MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION. LIGHT TRADE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO MODERATE LEVELS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. HOWEVER... ENERGY FROM ANA WILL MERGE WITH A PASSING
NORTH PACIFIC LOW SATURDAY AND THIS COMBINATION WILL PUSH OUR
TRADE-WIND PRODUCING HIGH EASTWARD... AND PLACE THE ISLANDS ON THE
OUTSKIRTS OF THE TRADE WIND BELT. WITH THE RIDGE SITTING JUST 300
MILES NORTH OF KAUAI... TRADE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME LEEWARD SEA BREEZES FORMING IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WILL BE MORE ACTIVE THAN
NORMAL AS TWO OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE OVER
THE ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...LEEWARD LOCATIONS WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WHILE SHOWERS FOCUS OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...LIGHT TRADE WINDS REMAIN WITH
SHOWERS FOCUSED NEAR THE MOUNTAIN AS A COLD FRONT LINGERS
NORTHWEST OF KAUAI... KEEPING THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE
SHUNTED TO THE EAST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE HIGHLY CONFUSED WITH THE
WEATHER SCENARIO FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WITH SOME BRINGING
STRONGER TRADES AND OTHERS PLACING A COLD FRONT NEAR KAUAI. THE
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR MODERATE TRADES WITH THE MAJORITY OF
MODELS SUGGESTING THIS SOLUTION.

MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH DEW
POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW 70/S.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS AND NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING. BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS...REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND MTN OBSC WILL BE THE IMPACTS THIS MORNING FOR MAINLY
FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND ALL WINDWARD AREAS. AIRMET
SIERRA FOR WINDWARD MTN OBSC IS IN EFFECT. TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO THE STATE BY MID-AFTERNOON...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL NNW SWELL WILL FILL IN TODAY AND FADE INTO THE WEEKEND. A
SMALL/MODERATE NORTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SURF FROM THESE SWELLS WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. ONLY SMALL SURF IS EXPECTED AT SOUTH AND EAST
FACING SHORES.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
FOSTER...AVIATION






000
FXHW60 PHFO 230632
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
832 PM HST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING SHOWERS INTO WINDWARD AREAS
TONIGHT WITH SOME RAINFALL SPILLING OVER LEEWARD LOCATIONS. WINDS
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND TURN FROM THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. LIGHT TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK
WITH SHOWERS FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. MUGGY CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO CHURN FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE.
ANA/S LOW PRESSURE AND POSITION HAS REDUCED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER HAWAII AND HAS TURNED WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. LINGERING
MOISTURE FROM AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BEING PUSHED INTO
WINDWARD AREAS BY THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH OFF AND ON RAINFALL OVER SMALLER
ISLAND LEEWARD LOCATIONS. THE RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR THE EASTERN ISLANDS TONIGHT WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
EXPECTED OVER KAUAI AND OAHU INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A BATCH OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY
NEAR 24N 150W... OR 500 MILES EAST OF OAHU... PUSHES THROUGH THE
STATE.

ANA WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK TONIGHT ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE STATE FROM THE NORTH...AND TURN OUR
WINDS TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION. LIGHT TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO MODERATE LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE ENERGY FROM ANA WILL MERGE WITH A
PASSING NORTH PACIFIC LOW SATURDAY AND THIS COMBINATION WILL PUSH
OUR TRADE-WIND PRODUCING HIGH EASTWARD... AND PLACE THE ISLANDS
ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE TRADE WIND BELT. WITH THE RIDGE SITTING
JUST 300 MILES NORTH OF KAUAI... ESE TRADE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME LEEWARD SEA BREEZES FORMING IN
THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WILL BE MORE ACTIVE
THAN NORMAL AS TWO OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE
OVER THE ISLANDS.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE
WINDS REMAIN AS A COLD FRONT LINGERS NORTHWEST OF KAUAI KEEPING
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SHUNTED TO THE EAST. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HIGHLY CONFUSED WITH THE WEATHER SCENARIO FROM
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WITH SOME BRINGING STRONGER TRADES AND OTHERS
PLACING A COLD FRONT NEAR KAUAI. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR
MODERATE TRADES AND THIS FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNTIL MODEL
SOLUTIONS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT.

MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH DEW
POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW 70/S.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS AND NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS HAWAII THIS EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THURSDAY
MORNING. BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS...REDUCED VISIBILITY AND MTN OBSC WILL
BE THE IMPACTS TONIGHT...AND AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC IS POSTED
FOR MUCH OF THE STATE. TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS WILL
RETURN TO THE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.


&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL NORTH SWELL WILL DECREASE TONIGHT. A SMALL NNW SWELL WILL
ARRIVE THURSDAY AND FADE INTO THE WEEKEND. A SMALL/MODERATE NORTH
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. SURF FROM THESE SWELLS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
ONLY SMALL SURF IS EXPECTED AT SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
FOSTER...AVIATION








000
FXHW60 PHFO 230443 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
630 PM HST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS FROM EARLIER SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WILL LINGER AROUND
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. A HIGH BUILDING FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL BRING
MODERATE TRADE WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. WINDS WILL AGAIN WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN E-W ORIENTED SFC RIDGE REMAINS LOCATED FAR NE OF THE ALOHA
STATE...WHILE TROPICAL STORM ANA GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS FROM THE S. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO IS KEEPING A
RATHER LIGHT TO MODERATE E/SE WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT.

A RELATIVELY STABLE BUT MOIST AIRMASS ALONG WITH THE SE FLOW ARE
BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS PASSING SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS...WITH PWATS HOVERING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES.
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM AN OLD BOUNDARY JUST E OF THE ISLANDS WILL
KEEP FEEDING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...WHILE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS BRING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

ON OAHU...SHOWERS AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN FOCUSED OVER THE KOOLAU
RANGE...THE AREA OF MANOA VALLEY...THE HONOLULU METRO AREA AND PEARL
CITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON MAUI COUNTY...THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING W MOLOKAI...WINDWARD MAUI AND E LANAI.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE...BUT
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

THE BIG ISLAND WILL KEEP PROVIDING SOME BLOCKING OF THE PREVAILING
SE FLOW TONIGHT WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE NE AND SE BIG ISLAND
AREAS...AND LIGHTER WINDS AROUND THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE
FAR NE OF THE ALOHA STATE...BRINGING A STRONGER TRADE WIND REGIME
THU AND FRI. THIS WILL SHIFT SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK TO MAINLY WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS...AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER LEEWARD AREAS. BUT THIS
SOLUTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE NW...WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND PUSHING IT FURTHER TO THE
S. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE LIGHTER SE FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER SEA BREEZES AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS FAVORING
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
ABOVE NORMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MANY AREAS OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS AS WELL AS ON THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...AND AIRMET SIERRA IS
IN EFFECT. TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO THE
STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN
TWO OTHER SMALL NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY RESPECTIVELY. SURF FROM THESE SWELLS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY LEVELS AT NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES.
ONLY SMALL SURF IS EXPECTED AT SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JACOBSON
















000
FXHW60 PHFO 230443 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
630 PM HST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS FROM EARLIER SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WILL LINGER AROUND
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. A HIGH BUILDING FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL BRING
MODERATE TRADE WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. WINDS WILL AGAIN WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN E-W ORIENTED SFC RIDGE REMAINS LOCATED FAR NE OF THE ALOHA
STATE...WHILE TROPICAL STORM ANA GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS FROM THE S. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO IS KEEPING A
RATHER LIGHT TO MODERATE E/SE WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT.

A RELATIVELY STABLE BUT MOIST AIRMASS ALONG WITH THE SE FLOW ARE
BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS PASSING SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS...WITH PWATS HOVERING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES.
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM AN OLD BOUNDARY JUST E OF THE ISLANDS WILL
KEEP FEEDING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...WHILE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS BRING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

ON OAHU...SHOWERS AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN FOCUSED OVER THE KOOLAU
RANGE...THE AREA OF MANOA VALLEY...THE HONOLULU METRO AREA AND PEARL
CITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON MAUI COUNTY...THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING W MOLOKAI...WINDWARD MAUI AND E LANAI.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE...BUT
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

THE BIG ISLAND WILL KEEP PROVIDING SOME BLOCKING OF THE PREVAILING
SE FLOW TONIGHT WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE NE AND SE BIG ISLAND
AREAS...AND LIGHTER WINDS AROUND THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE
FAR NE OF THE ALOHA STATE...BRINGING A STRONGER TRADE WIND REGIME
THU AND FRI. THIS WILL SHIFT SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK TO MAINLY WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS...AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER LEEWARD AREAS. BUT THIS
SOLUTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE NW...WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND PUSHING IT FURTHER TO THE
S. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE LIGHTER SE FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER SEA BREEZES AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS FAVORING
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
ABOVE NORMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MANY AREAS OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS AS WELL AS ON THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...AND AIRMET SIERRA IS
IN EFFECT. TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO THE
STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN
TWO OTHER SMALL NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY RESPECTIVELY. SURF FROM THESE SWELLS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY LEVELS AT NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES.
ONLY SMALL SURF IS EXPECTED AT SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JACOBSON
















000
FXHW60 PHFO 230130
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS FROM EARLIER SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WILL LINGER AROUND
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. A HIGH BUILDING FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL BRING
MODERATE TRADE WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. WINDS WILL AGAIN WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN E-W ORIENTED SFC RIDGE REMAINS LOCATED FAR NE OF THE ALOHA
STATE...WHILE TROPICAL STORM ANA GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS FROM THE S. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO IS KEEPING A
RATHER LIGHT TO MODERATE E/SE WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT.

A RELATIVELY STABLE BUT MOIST AIRMASS ALONG WITH THE SE FLOW ARE
BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS PASSING SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS...WITH PWATS HOVERING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES.
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM AN OLD BOUNDARY JUST E OF THE ISLANDS WILL
KEEP FEEDING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...WHILE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS BRING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

ON OAHU...SHOWERS AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN FOCUSED OVER THE KOOLAU
RANGE...THE AREA OF MANOA VALLEY...THE HONOLULU METRO AREA AND PEARL
CITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON MAUI COUNTY...THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING W MOLOKAI...WINDWARD MAUI AND E LANAI.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE...BUT
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

THE BIG ISLAND WILL KEEP PROVIDING SOME BLOCKING OF THE PREVAILING
SE FLOW TONIGHT WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE NE AND SE BIG ISLAND
AREAS...AND LIGHTER WINDS AROUND THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE
FAR NE OF THE ALOHA STATE...BRINGING A STRONGER TRADE WIND REGIME
THU AND FRI. THIS WILL SHIFT SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK TO MAINLY WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS...AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER LEEWARD AREAS. BUT THIS
SOLUTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE NW...WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND PUSHING IT FURTHER TO THE
S. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE LIGHTER SE FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER SEA BREEZES AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS FAVORING
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
ABOVE NORMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MANY AREAS OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS AS WELL AS ON THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...AND AIRMET SIERRA IS
IN EFFECT. TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO THE
STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN
TWO OTHER SMALL NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY RESPECTIVELY. SURF FROM THESE SWELLS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY LEVELS AT NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES.
ONLY SMALL SURF IS EXPECTED AT SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JACOBSON













000
FXHW60 PHFO 230130
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS FROM EARLIER SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WILL LINGER AROUND
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. A HIGH BUILDING FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL BRING
MODERATE TRADE WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. WINDS WILL AGAIN WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN E-W ORIENTED SFC RIDGE REMAINS LOCATED FAR NE OF THE ALOHA
STATE...WHILE TROPICAL STORM ANA GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS FROM THE S. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO IS KEEPING A
RATHER LIGHT TO MODERATE E/SE WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT.

A RELATIVELY STABLE BUT MOIST AIRMASS ALONG WITH THE SE FLOW ARE
BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS PASSING SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS...WITH PWATS HOVERING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES.
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM AN OLD BOUNDARY JUST E OF THE ISLANDS WILL
KEEP FEEDING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...WHILE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS BRING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

ON OAHU...SHOWERS AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN FOCUSED OVER THE KOOLAU
RANGE...THE AREA OF MANOA VALLEY...THE HONOLULU METRO AREA AND PEARL
CITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON MAUI COUNTY...THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING W MOLOKAI...WINDWARD MAUI AND E LANAI.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE...BUT
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

THE BIG ISLAND WILL KEEP PROVIDING SOME BLOCKING OF THE PREVAILING
SE FLOW TONIGHT WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE NE AND SE BIG ISLAND
AREAS...AND LIGHTER WINDS AROUND THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE
FAR NE OF THE ALOHA STATE...BRINGING A STRONGER TRADE WIND REGIME
THU AND FRI. THIS WILL SHIFT SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK TO MAINLY WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS...AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER LEEWARD AREAS. BUT THIS
SOLUTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE NW...WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND PUSHING IT FURTHER TO THE
S. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE LIGHTER SE FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER SEA BREEZES AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS FAVORING
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
ABOVE NORMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MANY AREAS OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS AS WELL AS ON THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...AND AIRMET SIERRA IS
IN EFFECT. TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO THE
STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN
TWO OTHER SMALL NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY RESPECTIVELY. SURF FROM THESE SWELLS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY LEVELS AT NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES.
ONLY SMALL SURF IS EXPECTED AT SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JACOBSON













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