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000
FXHW60 PHFO 041934
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
930 AM HST SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY BUT TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
MAINLY OVER INTERIOR AREAS WITH A MORE TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SHOWER PATTERN EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DAYTIME SEA
BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES EXPECTED. TRADE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE AREA.

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
NIIHAU. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING OFF TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER
EAST AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND BUT THESE ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT. DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE FOR SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS
THIS AFTERNOON OVER INTERIOR AREAS WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM
THEM. OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. WITH THE EXPECTED
GRADUAL INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOUDS AND PASSING
SHOWERS WILL TEND TO FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE STATE. CLOUDS
AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WITH THE
TRADE WINDS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE SELECT LEEWARD AREAS AT TIMES.

THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU AND THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI ARE MONITORING A COUPLE OF AREAS OF
DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE STATE. A SHORT PERIOD OF SEA
BREEZE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT SEVERAL TAF SITES
BEFORE THE TRADES KICK IN THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS PHNY WHERE MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY...AND GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN TO MODERATE LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE STATE. HOWEVER WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THOU SEAS WILL BUILD TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO THE STRONGER TRADE WINDS.

THE NEW SOUTH SWELL IS A BIT BIGGER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AS SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED
ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SWELL WILL LOWER GRADUALLY
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE SOUTH
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS WILL CAUSE
SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY SURF TO INCREASE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU SOUTH SHORE-WAIANAE COAST-MOLOKAI-
LANAI MAKAI-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-
WINDWARD HALEAKALA-LEEWARD HALEAKALA-KONA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG
ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE...BURKE
AVIATION...JELSEMA











000
FXHW60 PHFO 041934
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
930 AM HST SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY BUT TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
MAINLY OVER INTERIOR AREAS WITH A MORE TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SHOWER PATTERN EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DAYTIME SEA
BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES EXPECTED. TRADE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE AREA.

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
NIIHAU. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING OFF TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER
EAST AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND BUT THESE ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT. DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE FOR SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS
THIS AFTERNOON OVER INTERIOR AREAS WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM
THEM. OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. WITH THE EXPECTED
GRADUAL INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOUDS AND PASSING
SHOWERS WILL TEND TO FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE STATE. CLOUDS
AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WITH THE
TRADE WINDS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE SELECT LEEWARD AREAS AT TIMES.

THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU AND THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI ARE MONITORING A COUPLE OF AREAS OF
DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE STATE. A SHORT PERIOD OF SEA
BREEZE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT SEVERAL TAF SITES
BEFORE THE TRADES KICK IN THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS PHNY WHERE MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY...AND GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN TO MODERATE LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE STATE. HOWEVER WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THOU SEAS WILL BUILD TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO THE STRONGER TRADE WINDS.

THE NEW SOUTH SWELL IS A BIT BIGGER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AS SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED
ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SWELL WILL LOWER GRADUALLY
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE SOUTH
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS WILL CAUSE
SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY SURF TO INCREASE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU SOUTH SHORE-WAIANAE COAST-MOLOKAI-
LANAI MAKAI-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-
WINDWARD HALEAKALA-LEEWARD HALEAKALA-KONA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG
ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE...BURKE
AVIATION...JELSEMA










000
FXHW60 PHFO 041330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PREVAILING LIGHT TRADES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...BUT REMAINING WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. THE TRADES WILL LIKELY
BECOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
INTENSIFYING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS MAY BRING EVEN
STRONGER TRADES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE PREVAILING LIGHT TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND
BECOME MORE NE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A RIDGE OVER THE
ISLAND CHAIN MIGRATES N. LATEST WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE
BACKGROUND FLOW SLOWLY INCREASING AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
COUNTY. HOWEVER...PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEA BREEZES AND A FEW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY
CELEBRATIONS IS THAT A RATHER DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE STATE...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
JUST S/SE OF THE BIG ISLAND. THUS...SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED.

MODELS DEPICT REINFORCING SFC HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA DEVELOPING
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER STRENGTHEN THE TRADES INTO AT
LEAST MODERATE LEVELS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO SUGGEST THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FAR SE OF THE ALOHA
STATE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TRACK-WISE...THE MODELS
SEEM TO KEEP BOTH SYSTEMS MOVING TO THE S OF THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME DEEPER...PARTICULARLY
WITH THE LOW CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ABOUT 1100 MILES E/SE OF THE BIG
ISLAND. THIS COULD RESULT IN ENHANCED SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONGER
WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS BECOME TIGHTER BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE N
AND THE PASSING LOWS TO THE S.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI IS MONITORING A COUPLE OF
AREAS OVER THE E PACIFIC...THE STRONGER LOCATED ABOUT 2250 MILES
E/SE OF HILO...WHICH MODELS ALSO SUGGEST SOME DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK.
AND ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO EMBRACE A PARTICULAR MODEL
SOLUTION...THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS A NEARBY
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY N. WHILE THE TRADE WINDS WILL DELIVER A
FEW CLOUDS AND SMALL SHRA TO WINDWARD AREAS THAT WILL RESULT IN
BRIEF AND ISOL MVFR VIS/CIG...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AND
AIRMETS ARE NOT EXPECTED. -SHRA CURRENTLY NEAR PHKO SHOULD DIMINISH
SHORTLY...AND LEEWARD AREAS WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING.
CLOUDS AND ISOL MVFR VIS/CIG IN SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
LEEWARD BIG ISLAND SLOPES THIS AFTERNOON...AND POTENTIALLY OVER
LEEWARD PORTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. ADDITIONALLY...MVFR CIG IS
EXPECTED AT PHNY FROM 20Z-02Z.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LIGHT TRADES ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. BY TUESDAY...WINDS WILL BE NEAR OR AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI COUNTY...AND POSSIBLY EXPANDING INTO OTHER AREAS AS THE TRADES
BUILD FURTHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

A SOUTH SWELL WILL REACH THE ISLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY DECLINING MONDAY. THIS SWELL COULD PUSH SURF
TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES. ANOTHER SOUTHERLY
SWELL SHOULD REACH THE ISLANDS BY MONDAY...PEAKING ON TUESDAY AND
THEN GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...BIRCHARD









000
FXHW60 PHFO 041330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PREVAILING LIGHT TRADES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...BUT REMAINING WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. THE TRADES WILL LIKELY
BECOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
INTENSIFYING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS MAY BRING EVEN
STRONGER TRADES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE PREVAILING LIGHT TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND
BECOME MORE NE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A RIDGE OVER THE
ISLAND CHAIN MIGRATES N. LATEST WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE
BACKGROUND FLOW SLOWLY INCREASING AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
COUNTY. HOWEVER...PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEA BREEZES AND A FEW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY
CELEBRATIONS IS THAT A RATHER DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE STATE...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
JUST S/SE OF THE BIG ISLAND. THUS...SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED.

MODELS DEPICT REINFORCING SFC HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA DEVELOPING
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER STRENGTHEN THE TRADES INTO AT
LEAST MODERATE LEVELS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO SUGGEST THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FAR SE OF THE ALOHA
STATE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TRACK-WISE...THE MODELS
SEEM TO KEEP BOTH SYSTEMS MOVING TO THE S OF THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME DEEPER...PARTICULARLY
WITH THE LOW CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ABOUT 1100 MILES E/SE OF THE BIG
ISLAND. THIS COULD RESULT IN ENHANCED SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONGER
WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS BECOME TIGHTER BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE N
AND THE PASSING LOWS TO THE S.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI IS MONITORING A COUPLE OF
AREAS OVER THE E PACIFIC...THE STRONGER LOCATED ABOUT 2250 MILES
E/SE OF HILO...WHICH MODELS ALSO SUGGEST SOME DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK.
AND ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO EMBRACE A PARTICULAR MODEL
SOLUTION...THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS A NEARBY
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY N. WHILE THE TRADE WINDS WILL DELIVER A
FEW CLOUDS AND SMALL SHRA TO WINDWARD AREAS THAT WILL RESULT IN
BRIEF AND ISOL MVFR VIS/CIG...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AND
AIRMETS ARE NOT EXPECTED. -SHRA CURRENTLY NEAR PHKO SHOULD DIMINISH
SHORTLY...AND LEEWARD AREAS WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING.
CLOUDS AND ISOL MVFR VIS/CIG IN SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
LEEWARD BIG ISLAND SLOPES THIS AFTERNOON...AND POTENTIALLY OVER
LEEWARD PORTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. ADDITIONALLY...MVFR CIG IS
EXPECTED AT PHNY FROM 20Z-02Z.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LIGHT TRADES ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. BY TUESDAY...WINDS WILL BE NEAR OR AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI COUNTY...AND POSSIBLY EXPANDING INTO OTHER AREAS AS THE TRADES
BUILD FURTHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

A SOUTH SWELL WILL REACH THE ISLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY DECLINING MONDAY. THIS SWELL COULD PUSH SURF
TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES. ANOTHER SOUTHERLY
SWELL SHOULD REACH THE ISLANDS BY MONDAY...PEAKING ON TUESDAY AND
THEN GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...BIRCHARD








000
FXHW60 PHFO 040630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PREVAILING LIGHT TRADES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. EXPECT ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE TRADES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND LIKELY BECOME MODERATE BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. INTENSIFYING
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS MAY BRING EVEN STRONGER TRADES
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LIGHT TRADES...COURTESY OF A PERSISTENT SFC RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
THE ISLAND CHAIN...ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND BECOME
MORE NE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE RIDGE BEGINS MIGRATING
N. THE BACKGROUND FLOW IS NOW BECOMING STRONGER AROUND THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY AS LATEST GROUND OBSERVATIONS SHOW. BUT
DESPITE THE RETURNING TRADES...PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEA BREEZES AND A FEW SHOWERS
SAT AFTERNOON.

LATEST SOUNDING AND MIMIC DATA STILL DEPICT A RATHER DRY AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE JUST S/SE OF
THE BIG ISLAND. THUS...SO EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN LIMITED
FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOW SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING NNE OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN.

MODELS DEPICT REINFORCING SFC HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA DEVELOPING
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER STRENGTHEN THE TRADES INTO AT
LEAST MODERATE LEVELS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO SUGGEST THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FAR SE OF THE ALOHA
STATE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TRACK-WISE...THE MODELS
SEEM TO KEEP BOTH SYSTEMS MOVING TO THE S OF THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME DEEPER...PARTICULARLY
WITH THE LOW CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ABOUT 1200 MILES E/SE OF THE BIG
ISLAND. THIS COULD RESULT IN ENHANCED SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONGER
WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS BECOME TIGHTER BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE N
AND THE PASSING LOWS TO THE S.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI IS MONITORING A COUPLE OF
AREAS OVER THE E PACIFIC...THE STRONGER LOCATED ABOUT 2300 MILES
E/SE OF HILO...WHICH MODELS ALSO SUGGEST SOME DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK.
AND ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO EMBRACE A PARTICULAR MODEL
SOLUTION...THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A NEARBY SURFACE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY N. A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AND AIRMETS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. LEEWARD AREAS WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT WHILE TRADE WINDS
DELIVER ISOL -SHRA TO WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES...WITH BRIEF MVFR
VIS/CIG POSSIBLE. ON SATURDAY...TRADES MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW
LEEWARD CLOUDS AND ISOL SHRA TO DEVELOP ON KAUAI AND OAHU. THE KONA
SLOPES WILL HAVE AFTERNOON CLOUDS WITH ISOL MVFR VIS/CIG IN
SHRA...WHILE MVFR CIG IS EXPECTED AT PHNY FROM 20Z-04Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WITH THE TRADES BUILDING IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
SCA DEVELOP THE WINDIER MARINE ZONES...AND THEN EXPAND TO OTHER
AREAS AS THE TRADES BUILD FURTHER.

ANOTHER SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...
AND THEN SLOWLY DECLINE MONDAY. THIS SWELL COULD BRING SURF ALONG
THE SOUTH FACING SHORES NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS. ANOTHER SOUTHERLY
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE ISLANDS MONDAY...PEAK TUESDAY AND
THEN DECLINE ON WEDNESDAY. SEE THE LATEST SURF FORECAST DISCUSSION
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST BUMP MAY ARRIVE ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...REYNES
MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...BIRCHARD







000
FXHW60 PHFO 040630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PREVAILING LIGHT TRADES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. EXPECT ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE TRADES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND LIKELY BECOME MODERATE BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. INTENSIFYING
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS MAY BRING EVEN STRONGER TRADES
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LIGHT TRADES...COURTESY OF A PERSISTENT SFC RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
THE ISLAND CHAIN...ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND BECOME
MORE NE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE RIDGE BEGINS MIGRATING
N. THE BACKGROUND FLOW IS NOW BECOMING STRONGER AROUND THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY AS LATEST GROUND OBSERVATIONS SHOW. BUT
DESPITE THE RETURNING TRADES...PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEA BREEZES AND A FEW SHOWERS
SAT AFTERNOON.

LATEST SOUNDING AND MIMIC DATA STILL DEPICT A RATHER DRY AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE JUST S/SE OF
THE BIG ISLAND. THUS...SO EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN LIMITED
FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOW SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING NNE OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN.

MODELS DEPICT REINFORCING SFC HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA DEVELOPING
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER STRENGTHEN THE TRADES INTO AT
LEAST MODERATE LEVELS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO SUGGEST THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FAR SE OF THE ALOHA
STATE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TRACK-WISE...THE MODELS
SEEM TO KEEP BOTH SYSTEMS MOVING TO THE S OF THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME DEEPER...PARTICULARLY
WITH THE LOW CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ABOUT 1200 MILES E/SE OF THE BIG
ISLAND. THIS COULD RESULT IN ENHANCED SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONGER
WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS BECOME TIGHTER BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE N
AND THE PASSING LOWS TO THE S.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI IS MONITORING A COUPLE OF
AREAS OVER THE E PACIFIC...THE STRONGER LOCATED ABOUT 2300 MILES
E/SE OF HILO...WHICH MODELS ALSO SUGGEST SOME DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK.
AND ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO EMBRACE A PARTICULAR MODEL
SOLUTION...THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A NEARBY SURFACE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY N. A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AND AIRMETS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. LEEWARD AREAS WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT WHILE TRADE WINDS
DELIVER ISOL -SHRA TO WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES...WITH BRIEF MVFR
VIS/CIG POSSIBLE. ON SATURDAY...TRADES MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW
LEEWARD CLOUDS AND ISOL SHRA TO DEVELOP ON KAUAI AND OAHU. THE KONA
SLOPES WILL HAVE AFTERNOON CLOUDS WITH ISOL MVFR VIS/CIG IN
SHRA...WHILE MVFR CIG IS EXPECTED AT PHNY FROM 20Z-04Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WITH THE TRADES BUILDING IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
SCA DEVELOP THE WINDIER MARINE ZONES...AND THEN EXPAND TO OTHER
AREAS AS THE TRADES BUILD FURTHER.

ANOTHER SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...
AND THEN SLOWLY DECLINE MONDAY. THIS SWELL COULD BRING SURF ALONG
THE SOUTH FACING SHORES NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS. ANOTHER SOUTHERLY
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE ISLANDS MONDAY...PEAK TUESDAY AND
THEN DECLINE ON WEDNESDAY. SEE THE LATEST SURF FORECAST DISCUSSION
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST BUMP MAY ARRIVE ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...REYNES
MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...BIRCHARD






000
FXHW60 PHFO 040142
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TRADE WINDS WITH LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA BREEZES...AND A FEW
SHOWERS ARE IN STORE FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. TRADE WINDS WILL BUILD
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE LEVELS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG TRADES AND INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH
TODAY...AND WE ARE SEEING A RETURN TO EASTERLY WINDS IN THE
BACKGROUND FLOW NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY. NEAR
KAUAI...THE FLOW HAS TURNED A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THAN THIS
MORNING.

WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO LIFT FURTHER NORTH TONIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT
TRADES TO BUILD BACK...HOWEVER SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
SEE SOME LAND AND SEA BREEZES TOMORROW. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS...SO EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TOMORROW TO REMAIN LIMITED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXTENDING OVER THE
ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTH.

AS THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH MONDAY/TUESDAY...LOOK
FOR THE TRADES TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOWARDS MODERATE LEVELS. A
NEW HIGH MOVES IN NORTH OF THE ISLANDS MID WEEK...WHICH WILL HELP TO
FURTHER INCREASE THE TRADE WINDS.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A COUPLE LOWS FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH BEAR
WATCHING. THE MODELS ARE KEYING OFF OF A FEW AREAS OF DEEP
CONVECTION. ONE SUCH AREA IS ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...AND ANOTHER IS IS ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HILO.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRIEFLY SHOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT WITH THESE
AREAS...BUT KEEP THEM SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THESE SYSTEMS...PARTICULARLY THE ONE ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST
OF HILO...COULD EXTEND NORTHWARD AND BE CARRIED OVER THE ISLANDS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...AS THESE SYSTEMS PASS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS...THEY WILL
HELP TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS...HELPING TO
INCREASE THE TRADE WINDS.

NHC IS MONITORING AN AREA MUCH FURTHER EAST...ABOUT 2400 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF HILO...AND THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
GFS WITH DEVELOPING THIS AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. WE WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORING THESE AREAS...BUT IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS TO BE SURE OF
ANYTHING...PARTICULARLY WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGE MOVES NORTH OF THE STATE. LOCALIZED LAND BREEZES WILL HELP
CLEAR OUT MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. ANY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD
REMAIN PREDOMINATELY VFR AND WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
OVERALL...VFR WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WITH THE TRADES BUILDING IN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...SCA DEVELOP THE WINDIER MARINE ZONES...AND THEN EXPAND TO
OTHER AREAS AS THE TRADES BUILD FURTHER.

ANOTHER SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND THEN SLOWLY DECLINE MONDAY. THIS SWELL COULD
BRING SURF ALONG THE SOUTH FACING SHORES NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS.
ANOTHER SOUTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE ISLANDS
MONDAY...PEAK TUESDAY AND THEN DECLINE ON WEDNESDAY. SEE THE LATEST
SURF FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST BUMP MAY ARRIVE ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...EATON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 040142
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TRADE WINDS WITH LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA BREEZES...AND A FEW
SHOWERS ARE IN STORE FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. TRADE WINDS WILL BUILD
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE LEVELS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG TRADES AND INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH
TODAY...AND WE ARE SEEING A RETURN TO EASTERLY WINDS IN THE
BACKGROUND FLOW NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY. NEAR
KAUAI...THE FLOW HAS TURNED A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THAN THIS
MORNING.

WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO LIFT FURTHER NORTH TONIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT
TRADES TO BUILD BACK...HOWEVER SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
SEE SOME LAND AND SEA BREEZES TOMORROW. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS...SO EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TOMORROW TO REMAIN LIMITED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXTENDING OVER THE
ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTH.

AS THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH MONDAY/TUESDAY...LOOK
FOR THE TRADES TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOWARDS MODERATE LEVELS. A
NEW HIGH MOVES IN NORTH OF THE ISLANDS MID WEEK...WHICH WILL HELP TO
FURTHER INCREASE THE TRADE WINDS.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A COUPLE LOWS FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH BEAR
WATCHING. THE MODELS ARE KEYING OFF OF A FEW AREAS OF DEEP
CONVECTION. ONE SUCH AREA IS ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...AND ANOTHER IS IS ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HILO.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRIEFLY SHOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT WITH THESE
AREAS...BUT KEEP THEM SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THESE SYSTEMS...PARTICULARLY THE ONE ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST
OF HILO...COULD EXTEND NORTHWARD AND BE CARRIED OVER THE ISLANDS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...AS THESE SYSTEMS PASS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS...THEY WILL
HELP TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS...HELPING TO
INCREASE THE TRADE WINDS.

NHC IS MONITORING AN AREA MUCH FURTHER EAST...ABOUT 2400 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF HILO...AND THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
GFS WITH DEVELOPING THIS AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. WE WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORING THESE AREAS...BUT IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS TO BE SURE OF
ANYTHING...PARTICULARLY WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGE MOVES NORTH OF THE STATE. LOCALIZED LAND BREEZES WILL HELP
CLEAR OUT MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. ANY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD
REMAIN PREDOMINATELY VFR AND WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
OVERALL...VFR WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WITH THE TRADES BUILDING IN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...SCA DEVELOP THE WINDIER MARINE ZONES...AND THEN EXPAND TO
OTHER AREAS AS THE TRADES BUILD FURTHER.

ANOTHER SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND THEN SLOWLY DECLINE MONDAY. THIS SWELL COULD
BRING SURF ALONG THE SOUTH FACING SHORES NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS.
ANOTHER SOUTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE ISLANDS
MONDAY...PEAK TUESDAY AND THEN DECLINE ON WEDNESDAY. SEE THE LATEST
SURF FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST BUMP MAY ARRIVE ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 040142
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TRADE WINDS WITH LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA BREEZES...AND A FEW
SHOWERS ARE IN STORE FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. TRADE WINDS WILL BUILD
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE LEVELS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG TRADES AND INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH
TODAY...AND WE ARE SEEING A RETURN TO EASTERLY WINDS IN THE
BACKGROUND FLOW NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY. NEAR
KAUAI...THE FLOW HAS TURNED A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THAN THIS
MORNING.

WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO LIFT FURTHER NORTH TONIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT
TRADES TO BUILD BACK...HOWEVER SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
SEE SOME LAND AND SEA BREEZES TOMORROW. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS...SO EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TOMORROW TO REMAIN LIMITED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXTENDING OVER THE
ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTH.

AS THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH MONDAY/TUESDAY...LOOK
FOR THE TRADES TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOWARDS MODERATE LEVELS. A
NEW HIGH MOVES IN NORTH OF THE ISLANDS MID WEEK...WHICH WILL HELP TO
FURTHER INCREASE THE TRADE WINDS.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A COUPLE LOWS FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH BEAR
WATCHING. THE MODELS ARE KEYING OFF OF A FEW AREAS OF DEEP
CONVECTION. ONE SUCH AREA IS ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...AND ANOTHER IS IS ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HILO.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRIEFLY SHOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT WITH THESE
AREAS...BUT KEEP THEM SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THESE SYSTEMS...PARTICULARLY THE ONE ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST
OF HILO...COULD EXTEND NORTHWARD AND BE CARRIED OVER THE ISLANDS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...AS THESE SYSTEMS PASS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS...THEY WILL
HELP TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS...HELPING TO
INCREASE THE TRADE WINDS.

NHC IS MONITORING AN AREA MUCH FURTHER EAST...ABOUT 2400 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF HILO...AND THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
GFS WITH DEVELOPING THIS AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. WE WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORING THESE AREAS...BUT IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS TO BE SURE OF
ANYTHING...PARTICULARLY WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGE MOVES NORTH OF THE STATE. LOCALIZED LAND BREEZES WILL HELP
CLEAR OUT MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. ANY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD
REMAIN PREDOMINATELY VFR AND WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
OVERALL...VFR WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WITH THE TRADES BUILDING IN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...SCA DEVELOP THE WINDIER MARINE ZONES...AND THEN EXPAND TO
OTHER AREAS AS THE TRADES BUILD FURTHER.

ANOTHER SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND THEN SLOWLY DECLINE MONDAY. THIS SWELL COULD
BRING SURF ALONG THE SOUTH FACING SHORES NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS.
ANOTHER SOUTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE ISLANDS
MONDAY...PEAK TUESDAY AND THEN DECLINE ON WEDNESDAY. SEE THE LATEST
SURF FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST BUMP MAY ARRIVE ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...EATON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 040142
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TRADE WINDS WITH LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA BREEZES...AND A FEW
SHOWERS ARE IN STORE FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. TRADE WINDS WILL BUILD
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE LEVELS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG TRADES AND INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH
TODAY...AND WE ARE SEEING A RETURN TO EASTERLY WINDS IN THE
BACKGROUND FLOW NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY. NEAR
KAUAI...THE FLOW HAS TURNED A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THAN THIS
MORNING.

WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO LIFT FURTHER NORTH TONIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT
TRADES TO BUILD BACK...HOWEVER SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
SEE SOME LAND AND SEA BREEZES TOMORROW. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS...SO EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TOMORROW TO REMAIN LIMITED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXTENDING OVER THE
ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTH.

AS THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH MONDAY/TUESDAY...LOOK
FOR THE TRADES TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOWARDS MODERATE LEVELS. A
NEW HIGH MOVES IN NORTH OF THE ISLANDS MID WEEK...WHICH WILL HELP TO
FURTHER INCREASE THE TRADE WINDS.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A COUPLE LOWS FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH BEAR
WATCHING. THE MODELS ARE KEYING OFF OF A FEW AREAS OF DEEP
CONVECTION. ONE SUCH AREA IS ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...AND ANOTHER IS IS ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HILO.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRIEFLY SHOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT WITH THESE
AREAS...BUT KEEP THEM SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THESE SYSTEMS...PARTICULARLY THE ONE ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST
OF HILO...COULD EXTEND NORTHWARD AND BE CARRIED OVER THE ISLANDS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...AS THESE SYSTEMS PASS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS...THEY WILL
HELP TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS...HELPING TO
INCREASE THE TRADE WINDS.

NHC IS MONITORING AN AREA MUCH FURTHER EAST...ABOUT 2400 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF HILO...AND THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
GFS WITH DEVELOPING THIS AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. WE WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORING THESE AREAS...BUT IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS TO BE SURE OF
ANYTHING...PARTICULARLY WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGE MOVES NORTH OF THE STATE. LOCALIZED LAND BREEZES WILL HELP
CLEAR OUT MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. ANY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD
REMAIN PREDOMINATELY VFR AND WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
OVERALL...VFR WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WITH THE TRADES BUILDING IN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...SCA DEVELOP THE WINDIER MARINE ZONES...AND THEN EXPAND TO
OTHER AREAS AS THE TRADES BUILD FURTHER.

ANOTHER SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND THEN SLOWLY DECLINE MONDAY. THIS SWELL COULD
BRING SURF ALONG THE SOUTH FACING SHORES NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS.
ANOTHER SOUTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE ISLANDS
MONDAY...PEAK TUESDAY AND THEN DECLINE ON WEDNESDAY. SEE THE LATEST
SURF FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST BUMP MAY ARRIVE ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 032005
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS...WITH LAND AND SEA BREEZES...WILL CONTINUE TODAY
WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLANDS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LOCALIZED LAND AND
SEA BREEZES. EXPECT TRADE WINDS TO SLOWLY REACH BACK TO MODERATE
LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING...KEEPING
LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THE SYNOPTIC...OR BACKGROUND FLOW...IS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST NEAR MAUI COUNTY AN THE BIG ISLAND...AND
FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION NEAR KAUAI BASED ON THE LOW CLOUD
MOTION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWED AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS TO THE SOUTH OF OAHU AT DAYBREAK...BUT SINCE THEN THIS
AREA HAS BEGUN TO DISSIPATE AS THE CLOUDS MOVED OVER THE KAUAI
CHANNEL.

THE LIGHT WINDS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD LAND AND SEA
BREEZES...WHICH WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO THE ISLANDS. THE FRONT TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TODAY...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO
LIFT NORTH WHICH SHOULD HELP LIGHT TRADES TO RETURN TO THE ISLANDS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH HOWEVER THAT
LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA BREEZES WILL STILL SET UP...BUT IN GENERAL
THERE SHOULD BE MORE AIR MOVEMENT THAT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

HEADING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL LINGER NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS...MAINTAINING LIGHT TRADES OVER THE ISLANDS THAT WILL
INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS BY MID WEEK. THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
TRADES WILL BE DUE TO THE RIDGE BEING REINFORCED WITH A NEW HIGH TO
THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...COUPLED WITH A COUPLE OF LOWS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS...THAT WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
ISLANDS.

AS THE BACKGROUND FLOW TURNS THE EAST SATURDAY...AND THEN A LITTLE
MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY MONDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME FOCUSED
AGAIN OVER THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. AS THE TRADES RETURN IN
ERNEST DURING THE WORK WEEK...EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
REGIME.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
LOWS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER
ITS UNLIKELY THAT EACH OF THE SYSTEMS THAT THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
LOCKING ONTO WILL DEVELOP. WILL BE MONITORING FUTURE RUNS TO SEE
WHICH SCENARIO WILL PAN OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEA BREEZES TO FORM LATER THIS MORNING. INTERIOR AREAS CAN EXPECT
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY...EXCLUDING LANAI...CLOUD TOPS SHOULD MAINLY
STAY BELOW 120 WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS/VIS. ON LANAI...MVFR AND
ISOL IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER UNTIL EVENING. A PATCH OF
MOISTURE NEAR OAHU AND KAUAI WILL AIDE IN ENHANCING AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS. KAUAI AND OAHU MAY SEE TCU TOPS
BETWEEN 150 AND FL200...SOME SHOWERS MAY INTRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR.
SHOWERS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT WITH SUNSET AND AS
THE LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BUT COULD DEVELOP IN THE WINDIER MARINE ZONES NEXT WEEK BY
TUESDAY AS THE TRADES BUILD.

THE CURRENT SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE TODAY...BUT ANOTHER
BUMP IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND COULD BRING THE
SOUTH SHORES SURF NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS.

THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST BUMP MAY ARRIVE ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 032005
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS...WITH LAND AND SEA BREEZES...WILL CONTINUE TODAY
WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLANDS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LOCALIZED LAND AND
SEA BREEZES. EXPECT TRADE WINDS TO SLOWLY REACH BACK TO MODERATE
LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING...KEEPING
LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THE SYNOPTIC...OR BACKGROUND FLOW...IS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST NEAR MAUI COUNTY AN THE BIG ISLAND...AND
FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION NEAR KAUAI BASED ON THE LOW CLOUD
MOTION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWED AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS TO THE SOUTH OF OAHU AT DAYBREAK...BUT SINCE THEN THIS
AREA HAS BEGUN TO DISSIPATE AS THE CLOUDS MOVED OVER THE KAUAI
CHANNEL.

THE LIGHT WINDS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD LAND AND SEA
BREEZES...WHICH WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO THE ISLANDS. THE FRONT TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TODAY...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO
LIFT NORTH WHICH SHOULD HELP LIGHT TRADES TO RETURN TO THE ISLANDS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH HOWEVER THAT
LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA BREEZES WILL STILL SET UP...BUT IN GENERAL
THERE SHOULD BE MORE AIR MOVEMENT THAT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

HEADING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL LINGER NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS...MAINTAINING LIGHT TRADES OVER THE ISLANDS THAT WILL
INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS BY MID WEEK. THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
TRADES WILL BE DUE TO THE RIDGE BEING REINFORCED WITH A NEW HIGH TO
THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...COUPLED WITH A COUPLE OF LOWS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS...THAT WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
ISLANDS.

AS THE BACKGROUND FLOW TURNS THE EAST SATURDAY...AND THEN A LITTLE
MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY MONDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME FOCUSED
AGAIN OVER THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. AS THE TRADES RETURN IN
ERNEST DURING THE WORK WEEK...EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
REGIME.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
LOWS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER
ITS UNLIKELY THAT EACH OF THE SYSTEMS THAT THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
LOCKING ONTO WILL DEVELOP. WILL BE MONITORING FUTURE RUNS TO SEE
WHICH SCENARIO WILL PAN OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEA BREEZES TO FORM LATER THIS MORNING. INTERIOR AREAS CAN EXPECT
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY...EXCLUDING LANAI...CLOUD TOPS SHOULD MAINLY
STAY BELOW 120 WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS/VIS. ON LANAI...MVFR AND
ISOL IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER UNTIL EVENING. A PATCH OF
MOISTURE NEAR OAHU AND KAUAI WILL AIDE IN ENHANCING AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS. KAUAI AND OAHU MAY SEE TCU TOPS
BETWEEN 150 AND FL200...SOME SHOWERS MAY INTRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR.
SHOWERS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT WITH SUNSET AND AS
THE LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BUT COULD DEVELOP IN THE WINDIER MARINE ZONES NEXT WEEK BY
TUESDAY AS THE TRADES BUILD.

THE CURRENT SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE TODAY...BUT ANOTHER
BUMP IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND COULD BRING THE
SOUTH SHORES SURF NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS.

THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST BUMP MAY ARRIVE ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...EATON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 031414
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS...WITH LAND AND SEA BREEZES...WILL CONTINUE TODAY
WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLANDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LOCALIZED LAND AND
SEA BREEZES. EXPECT TRADE WINDS TO SLOWLY REACH BACK TO MODERATE
LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY SYNOPTIC WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLEARING DID
OCCUR OVERNIGHT OVER THE ISLANDS...THOUGH INTERESTINGLY...STRONG
CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF OAHU COASTAL WATERS
IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION
SPREADING OVER OAHU AT TIMES UNDER THE WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS. LOOKS
LIKE THE CONVECTION IS MOVING WEST AND FINALLY WEAKENING...THOUGH
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION MAY STILL AFFECT KAUAI COUNTY AS
WELL AS OAHU THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS ALSO AN AREA OF
LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND EAST BIG ISLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING...THOUGH THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT BRINGING MUCH...IF ANY...
PRECIPITATION...AS INDICATED BY BOTH RADAR DATA AND GAGES. EARLY
MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM LIHUE AND HILO STILL INDICATED A SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS WELL. IN
ALL...EXPECT MAINLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE THIS
MORNING...THOUGH WITH A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS AT TIMES.

THE LIGHT WIND REGIME WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
LAND AND SEA BREEZES AS LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN. MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR AND LEE AREAS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY
LINGER THROUGH EARLY PART OF THE EVENING...WITH SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
BEGINNING SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE STORM SYSTEM FAR
NORTH OF THE STATE IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW
LIGHT TRADE WINDS TO RETURN ACROSS THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN ISLANDS. NEVERTHELESS...TRADES WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR
LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND BE SOMEWHAT
WIDESPREAD. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE LIGHT
TRADE WINDS WILL REACH THE ISLANDS...BRINGING A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS...WHILE POCKETS OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONGER TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE STATE BY TUESDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGE STAYS FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. IN FACT...RATHER
STRONG TRADE WINDS MAY RETURN TOWARD THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
REGARDLESS...TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL RETURN...WITH PASSING CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. LATEST
FORECAST SOLUTIONS HINT POSSIBLE TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS
THE ISLANDS TOWARD THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THERE IS
DISAGREEMENT UPON HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE WILL SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS WILL ALLOW A LAND/SEA BREEZE REGIME
TO PREVAIL OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS INTO TONIGHT...WHILE LIGHT TO
MODERATE E-SE WINDS PREVAIL NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. THE LAND
BREEZES WILL KEEP SHRA FROM MOVING ASHORE ON KAUAI AND OAHU THIS
MORNING...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF AN AREA OF +SHRA...AND POTENTIALLY
ISOL +TSRA...OVER WATERS WELL S OF KAUAI AND OAHU. AS SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING...CLOUDS AND SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ISOL MVFR VIS/CIG OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS...AND OVER LEE SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND AFTER 20Z-21Z.
MEANWHILE...THE E/SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DELIVER ISOL AND BRIEF
MVFR CIG IN PASSING -SHRA TO WINDWARD AREAS OF MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW MVFR CIG TO PREVAIL AT PHNY FROM
20Z-04Z. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BUT COULD DEVELOP IN THE WINDIER MARINE ZONES NEXT WEEK BY
TUESDAY AS THE TRADES BUILD.

THE CURRENT SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARD
TODAY. ANOTHER BUMP ON THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND COULD BRING THE SOUTH SHORES SURF NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS.

THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL DID PEAK IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AND WILL
THEN GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST
BUMP MAY ARRIVE ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI
AVIATION...BIRCHARD







000
FXHW60 PHFO 031414
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS...WITH LAND AND SEA BREEZES...WILL CONTINUE TODAY
WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLANDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LOCALIZED LAND AND
SEA BREEZES. EXPECT TRADE WINDS TO SLOWLY REACH BACK TO MODERATE
LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY SYNOPTIC WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLEARING DID
OCCUR OVERNIGHT OVER THE ISLANDS...THOUGH INTERESTINGLY...STRONG
CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF OAHU COASTAL WATERS
IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION
SPREADING OVER OAHU AT TIMES UNDER THE WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS. LOOKS
LIKE THE CONVECTION IS MOVING WEST AND FINALLY WEAKENING...THOUGH
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION MAY STILL AFFECT KAUAI COUNTY AS
WELL AS OAHU THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS ALSO AN AREA OF
LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND EAST BIG ISLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING...THOUGH THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT BRINGING MUCH...IF ANY...
PRECIPITATION...AS INDICATED BY BOTH RADAR DATA AND GAGES. EARLY
MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM LIHUE AND HILO STILL INDICATED A SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS WELL. IN
ALL...EXPECT MAINLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE THIS
MORNING...THOUGH WITH A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS AT TIMES.

THE LIGHT WIND REGIME WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
LAND AND SEA BREEZES AS LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN. MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR AND LEE AREAS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY
LINGER THROUGH EARLY PART OF THE EVENING...WITH SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
BEGINNING SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE STORM SYSTEM FAR
NORTH OF THE STATE IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW
LIGHT TRADE WINDS TO RETURN ACROSS THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN ISLANDS. NEVERTHELESS...TRADES WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR
LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND BE SOMEWHAT
WIDESPREAD. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE LIGHT
TRADE WINDS WILL REACH THE ISLANDS...BRINGING A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS...WHILE POCKETS OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONGER TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE STATE BY TUESDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGE STAYS FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. IN FACT...RATHER
STRONG TRADE WINDS MAY RETURN TOWARD THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
REGARDLESS...TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL RETURN...WITH PASSING CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. LATEST
FORECAST SOLUTIONS HINT POSSIBLE TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS
THE ISLANDS TOWARD THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THERE IS
DISAGREEMENT UPON HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE WILL SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS WILL ALLOW A LAND/SEA BREEZE REGIME
TO PREVAIL OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS INTO TONIGHT...WHILE LIGHT TO
MODERATE E-SE WINDS PREVAIL NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. THE LAND
BREEZES WILL KEEP SHRA FROM MOVING ASHORE ON KAUAI AND OAHU THIS
MORNING...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF AN AREA OF +SHRA...AND POTENTIALLY
ISOL +TSRA...OVER WATERS WELL S OF KAUAI AND OAHU. AS SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING...CLOUDS AND SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ISOL MVFR VIS/CIG OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS...AND OVER LEE SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND AFTER 20Z-21Z.
MEANWHILE...THE E/SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DELIVER ISOL AND BRIEF
MVFR CIG IN PASSING -SHRA TO WINDWARD AREAS OF MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW MVFR CIG TO PREVAIL AT PHNY FROM
20Z-04Z. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BUT COULD DEVELOP IN THE WINDIER MARINE ZONES NEXT WEEK BY
TUESDAY AS THE TRADES BUILD.

THE CURRENT SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARD
TODAY. ANOTHER BUMP ON THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND COULD BRING THE SOUTH SHORES SURF NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS.

THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL DID PEAK IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AND WILL
THEN GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST
BUMP MAY ARRIVE ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI
AVIATION...BIRCHARD






000
FXHW60 PHFO 030642
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS...WITH LAND AND SEA BREEZES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE
ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LOCALIZED LAND AND
SEA BREEZES. EXPECT TRADE WINDS TO SLOWLY REACH BACK TO MODERATE
LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE ISLANDS THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY SYNOPTIC WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS DEVELOPED EARLIER
OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS UNDER DAYTIME HEATING ARE ON THE
DECLINE...THOUGH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE BIG ISLAND. AIR MASS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY IS A LITTLE
UNSTABLE...THOUGH THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GENERALLY
KEEPING PRECIPITATION A MINIMAL. BUT THEN CONVECTION FLARED UP ALONG
THE KOOLAU IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BRINGING MODERATE RAINFALL.
THESE CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO REVEALED AREA OF LOW CLOUDS JUST
SOUTH OF KAUAI AND OAHU AT TIME. WITH THE SOUTHERLY SYNOPTIC
FLOW...THESE CLOUDS MAY REACH THOSE ISLANDS OVER NIGHT.

THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
LAND AND SEA BREEZES AS LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN. CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR AND LEE AREAS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY
LINGER THROUGH EARLY PART OF THE EVENING...WITH SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
BEGINNING SATURDAY...AS STORM SYSTEM FAR NORTH OF THE STATE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL
RETURN ACROSS THE ISLANDS..ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS. BUT
THEN TRADES WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA BREEZES
TO STILL BE SOMEWHAT WIDESPREAD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL REACH THE ISLANDS. THUS EXPECT A LITTLE MORE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS...WITH ADDITIONAL
POCKETS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OVER LEEWARD AND
INTERIOR AREAS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS.

STRONGER TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGE STAYS
FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL RETURN...WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS...AND LARGE-SCALE LIGHT WINDS...
WILL ALLOW A LAND/SEA BREEZE REGIME TO PREVAIL OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS INTO FRIDAY...WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS PREVAIL
NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. EVENING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SUPPORTED
BY THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT AS THE LAND BREEZE
TAKES HOLD...BUT SHRA OVER THE KOOLAUS ON OAHU WILL PRODUCE ISOL
MVFR VIS/CIG THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. CLOUDS AND ISOL SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO
AGAIN PRODUCE ISOL MVFR VIS/CIG OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS...AND OVER LEE SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND...AFTER 21Z
FRIDAY. OVERALL...VFR WILL PREVAIL AND NO AIRMETS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT COULD DEVELOP IN THE WINDIER MARINE ZONES
NEXT WEEK BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AS THE TRADES BUILD.

THE CURRENT SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER BUMP ON THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...AND COULD BRING THE SOUTH SHORES SURF NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS.

THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PEAK OVERNIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
DECLINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST BUMP MAY ARRIVE
ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI
AVIATION...BIRCHARD







000
FXHW60 PHFO 030642
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS...WITH LAND AND SEA BREEZES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE
ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LOCALIZED LAND AND
SEA BREEZES. EXPECT TRADE WINDS TO SLOWLY REACH BACK TO MODERATE
LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE ISLANDS THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY SYNOPTIC WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS DEVELOPED EARLIER
OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS UNDER DAYTIME HEATING ARE ON THE
DECLINE...THOUGH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE BIG ISLAND. AIR MASS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY IS A LITTLE
UNSTABLE...THOUGH THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GENERALLY
KEEPING PRECIPITATION A MINIMAL. BUT THEN CONVECTION FLARED UP ALONG
THE KOOLAU IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BRINGING MODERATE RAINFALL.
THESE CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO REVEALED AREA OF LOW CLOUDS JUST
SOUTH OF KAUAI AND OAHU AT TIME. WITH THE SOUTHERLY SYNOPTIC
FLOW...THESE CLOUDS MAY REACH THOSE ISLANDS OVER NIGHT.

THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
LAND AND SEA BREEZES AS LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN. CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR AND LEE AREAS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY
LINGER THROUGH EARLY PART OF THE EVENING...WITH SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
BEGINNING SATURDAY...AS STORM SYSTEM FAR NORTH OF THE STATE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL
RETURN ACROSS THE ISLANDS..ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS. BUT
THEN TRADES WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA BREEZES
TO STILL BE SOMEWHAT WIDESPREAD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL REACH THE ISLANDS. THUS EXPECT A LITTLE MORE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS...WITH ADDITIONAL
POCKETS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OVER LEEWARD AND
INTERIOR AREAS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS.

STRONGER TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGE STAYS
FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL RETURN...WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS...AND LARGE-SCALE LIGHT WINDS...
WILL ALLOW A LAND/SEA BREEZE REGIME TO PREVAIL OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS INTO FRIDAY...WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS PREVAIL
NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. EVENING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SUPPORTED
BY THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT AS THE LAND BREEZE
TAKES HOLD...BUT SHRA OVER THE KOOLAUS ON OAHU WILL PRODUCE ISOL
MVFR VIS/CIG THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. CLOUDS AND ISOL SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO
AGAIN PRODUCE ISOL MVFR VIS/CIG OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS...AND OVER LEE SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND...AFTER 21Z
FRIDAY. OVERALL...VFR WILL PREVAIL AND NO AIRMETS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT COULD DEVELOP IN THE WINDIER MARINE ZONES
NEXT WEEK BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AS THE TRADES BUILD.

THE CURRENT SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER BUMP ON THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...AND COULD BRING THE SOUTH SHORES SURF NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS.

THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PEAK OVERNIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
DECLINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST BUMP MAY ARRIVE
ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI
AVIATION...BIRCHARD






000
FXHW60 PHFO 030134
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS...WITH LAND AND SEA BREEZES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE
ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LOCALIZED LAND AND
SEA BREEZES. EXPECT TRADE WINDS TO SLOWLY REACH BACK TO MODERATE
LEVELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LIGHT WINDS TODAY DID LEAD TO CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE
INTERIOR OF THE ISLANDS TODAY...BUT WITH LIMITED RAINFALL ON THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. SOME AREAS ON THE BIG ISLAND RECEIVED A LITTLE MORE
RAINFALL...BUT TOTALS REMAINED BELOW NORMAL.

THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS
OF LAND AND SEA BREEZES. AGAIN EXPECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS OF THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLANDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HEADING
INTO SATURDAY...LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL START TO BE FELT ACROSS THE
ISLANDS...BUT WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA
BREEZES WILL STILL BE EXPERIENCED. THE MODELS AGREE WITH A TRADE
WIND BACKGROUND FLOW...SO MOISTURE WILL BE CARRIED TOWARDS THE
ISLANDS IN THIS FLOW...WHICH SHOULD CONCENTRATED SHOWERS OVER THE
MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND FLOW AREAS...BUT ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS. THE NEW WORK WEEK SHOULD SEE THE BACKGROUND TRADE
WIND FLOW BEGIN TO BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE LAND...WITH
MODERATE TRADES BY WEDNESDAY.

THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS IS KEEPING THE
RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS...AND THUS BRINGING THE LIGHT WINDS. AS THE
FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH...THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD...
ALLOWING THE LIGHT TRADES THIS WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE LIFTS NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WE/LL SEE THE TRADES
RETURN WITH THE TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH RETURNING THE TRADES TO THE ISLANDS...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO RETURN MODERATE TRADES TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
A LAND/SEA BREEZE REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVER SMALLER ISLANDS INTO
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SITS NEAR KAUAI AND LIGHT E-SE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND WINDWARD MAUI. AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS SUPPORTED BY THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT AS
THE LAND BREEZE TAKES HOLD. ENHANCED MOISTURE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND
AND MAUI WILL HELP KEEP WINDWARD AREAS ON THESE ISLANDS CLOUDIER.
OVERALL...VFR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT COULD DEVELOP IN THE WINDIER MARINE ZONES
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK AS THE TRADES BUILD.

THE CURRENT SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER BUMP ON THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...AND COULD BRING THE SOUTH SHORES SURF NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS.

THE NORTHWEST SWELL THAT ARRIVED TODAY IS EXPECTED TO PEAK OVERNIGHT
AND THEN GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SMALL
NORTHWEST BUMP MAY ARRIVE ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...EATON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 030134
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS...WITH LAND AND SEA BREEZES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE
ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LOCALIZED LAND AND
SEA BREEZES. EXPECT TRADE WINDS TO SLOWLY REACH BACK TO MODERATE
LEVELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LIGHT WINDS TODAY DID LEAD TO CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE
INTERIOR OF THE ISLANDS TODAY...BUT WITH LIMITED RAINFALL ON THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. SOME AREAS ON THE BIG ISLAND RECEIVED A LITTLE MORE
RAINFALL...BUT TOTALS REMAINED BELOW NORMAL.

THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS
OF LAND AND SEA BREEZES. AGAIN EXPECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS OF THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLANDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HEADING
INTO SATURDAY...LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL START TO BE FELT ACROSS THE
ISLANDS...BUT WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA
BREEZES WILL STILL BE EXPERIENCED. THE MODELS AGREE WITH A TRADE
WIND BACKGROUND FLOW...SO MOISTURE WILL BE CARRIED TOWARDS THE
ISLANDS IN THIS FLOW...WHICH SHOULD CONCENTRATED SHOWERS OVER THE
MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND FLOW AREAS...BUT ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS. THE NEW WORK WEEK SHOULD SEE THE BACKGROUND TRADE
WIND FLOW BEGIN TO BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE LAND...WITH
MODERATE TRADES BY WEDNESDAY.

THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS IS KEEPING THE
RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS...AND THUS BRINGING THE LIGHT WINDS. AS THE
FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH...THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD...
ALLOWING THE LIGHT TRADES THIS WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE LIFTS NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WE/LL SEE THE TRADES
RETURN WITH THE TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH RETURNING THE TRADES TO THE ISLANDS...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO RETURN MODERATE TRADES TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
A LAND/SEA BREEZE REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVER SMALLER ISLANDS INTO
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SITS NEAR KAUAI AND LIGHT E-SE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND WINDWARD MAUI. AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS SUPPORTED BY THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT AS
THE LAND BREEZE TAKES HOLD. ENHANCED MOISTURE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND
AND MAUI WILL HELP KEEP WINDWARD AREAS ON THESE ISLANDS CLOUDIER.
OVERALL...VFR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT COULD DEVELOP IN THE WINDIER MARINE ZONES
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK AS THE TRADES BUILD.

THE CURRENT SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER BUMP ON THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...AND COULD BRING THE SOUTH SHORES SURF NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS.

THE NORTHWEST SWELL THAT ARRIVED TODAY IS EXPECTED TO PEAK OVERNIGHT
AND THEN GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SMALL
NORTHWEST BUMP MAY ARRIVE ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 030134
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS...WITH LAND AND SEA BREEZES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE
ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LOCALIZED LAND AND
SEA BREEZES. EXPECT TRADE WINDS TO SLOWLY REACH BACK TO MODERATE
LEVELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LIGHT WINDS TODAY DID LEAD TO CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE
INTERIOR OF THE ISLANDS TODAY...BUT WITH LIMITED RAINFALL ON THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. SOME AREAS ON THE BIG ISLAND RECEIVED A LITTLE MORE
RAINFALL...BUT TOTALS REMAINED BELOW NORMAL.

THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS
OF LAND AND SEA BREEZES. AGAIN EXPECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS OF THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLANDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HEADING
INTO SATURDAY...LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL START TO BE FELT ACROSS THE
ISLANDS...BUT WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA
BREEZES WILL STILL BE EXPERIENCED. THE MODELS AGREE WITH A TRADE
WIND BACKGROUND FLOW...SO MOISTURE WILL BE CARRIED TOWARDS THE
ISLANDS IN THIS FLOW...WHICH SHOULD CONCENTRATED SHOWERS OVER THE
MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND FLOW AREAS...BUT ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS. THE NEW WORK WEEK SHOULD SEE THE BACKGROUND TRADE
WIND FLOW BEGIN TO BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE LAND...WITH
MODERATE TRADES BY WEDNESDAY.

THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS IS KEEPING THE
RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS...AND THUS BRINGING THE LIGHT WINDS. AS THE
FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH...THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD...
ALLOWING THE LIGHT TRADES THIS WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE LIFTS NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WE/LL SEE THE TRADES
RETURN WITH THE TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH RETURNING THE TRADES TO THE ISLANDS...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO RETURN MODERATE TRADES TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
A LAND/SEA BREEZE REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVER SMALLER ISLANDS INTO
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SITS NEAR KAUAI AND LIGHT E-SE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND WINDWARD MAUI. AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS SUPPORTED BY THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT AS
THE LAND BREEZE TAKES HOLD. ENHANCED MOISTURE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND
AND MAUI WILL HELP KEEP WINDWARD AREAS ON THESE ISLANDS CLOUDIER.
OVERALL...VFR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT COULD DEVELOP IN THE WINDIER MARINE ZONES
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK AS THE TRADES BUILD.

THE CURRENT SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER BUMP ON THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...AND COULD BRING THE SOUTH SHORES SURF NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS.

THE NORTHWEST SWELL THAT ARRIVED TODAY IS EXPECTED TO PEAK OVERNIGHT
AND THEN GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SMALL
NORTHWEST BUMP MAY ARRIVE ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 021950
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY...WITH SOME HINTS OF LIGHT TRADE WINDS RETURNING SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TRADES SHOULD RETURN STATE WIDE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING LAND AND SEA BREEZES...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. THE LIGHT TRADE WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA BREEZES. EXPECT MORE TYPICAL TRADE WINDS AS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK APPROACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA BOTH SHOW MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
BIG ISLAND AND THE PORTIONS OF MAUI THIS MORNING THAN OVER THE
REMAINING ISLANDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS
OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS THIS MORNING...BUT VALUES REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE
KOOLAU RANGE ON OAHU...AND OVER THE INTERIOR OF KAUAI AT 9 AM. WITH
THIS COMBINATION...DO FEEL THAT AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS REMAIN
A POSSIBILITY...PARTICULARLY OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
THE SMALLER ISLANDS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TREND THE POPS
HIGHER...FOLLOWING GUIDANCE FROM ALL THE MODELS...GLOBAL AND HIGH
RES.

ALTHOUGH WE DO EXPECT TRADES TO RETURN...IT WILL BE A VERY SLOW
RETURN. LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
WIDESPREAD LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO THE ISLANDS. THIS COMBINATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE ISLANDS. AS
THE WINDS START TO PICK UP THIS WEEKEND...EVEN THOUGH THEY WILL
START TO BE FROM A MORE TRADE WIND DIRECTION...WIND SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. AS
SUCH...LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA BREEZES WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER THE
BACKGROUND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD FOCUS
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE EASTERN SIDES OF THE ISLANDS.

THE LIGHT WINDS ARE DUE TO A FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS
PUSHING THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS IT LIFTS NORTH...THE FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTH...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. THE
RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS WILL PREVENT TRADES
FROM EXCEEDING MODERATE LEVELS IN MOST AREAS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT APPROX 100NM NW OF KAUAI HAS PUSHED THE RIDGE OVER THE
ISLANDS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS AND LEEWARD BIG ISLAND AND ALLOW FOR A SEA/LAND BREEZE
REGIME TO REMAIN INTO FRIDAY. A LIGHT E-SE FLOW WILL REMAIN AROUND
WINDWARD BIG ISLAND.

MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH OF ENHANCE
MOISTURE OVER MAUI COUNTY AND THE THE BIG ISLAND. MORNING SOUNDINGS
ESTIMATE 1.58 AND 1.17 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER PHTO AND
PHLI RESPECTIVELY. WHILE OAHU AND KAUAI ARE IN A DRY SLOT THIS
MORNING...FORECAST MODELS SHOWS THE AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
SPREADING WEST INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT SEA BREEZES TO ALLOW FOR
INTERIOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO FORM OVER INTERIOR AREAS ON ALL
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS MAY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND
TOPS UP TO 150...ESPECIALLY OVER MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA IN THE WINDIER
MARINE ZONES AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO
THE STRENGTHENING TRADES.

THE SOUTH SHORES WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SWELL ACTION OVER THE
WEEKEND DUE TO A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SWELLS GENERATED BY SEVERAL
FAST-MOVING LOWS ARE ON THEIR WAY HERE THAT WILL RESULT IN A SMALL
TO MODERATE SIZE SURF OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. PEAKS IN SURF
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY...APPROACHING BUT STAYING
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

A NORTHWEST SWELL HAS REACHED THE ISLANDS AND AS EXPECTED. THIS
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TODAY...AND
THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...EATON











000
FXHW60 PHFO 021950
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY...WITH SOME HINTS OF LIGHT TRADE WINDS RETURNING SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TRADES SHOULD RETURN STATE WIDE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING LAND AND SEA BREEZES...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. THE LIGHT TRADE WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA BREEZES. EXPECT MORE TYPICAL TRADE WINDS AS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK APPROACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA BOTH SHOW MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
BIG ISLAND AND THE PORTIONS OF MAUI THIS MORNING THAN OVER THE
REMAINING ISLANDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS
OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS THIS MORNING...BUT VALUES REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE
KOOLAU RANGE ON OAHU...AND OVER THE INTERIOR OF KAUAI AT 9 AM. WITH
THIS COMBINATION...DO FEEL THAT AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS REMAIN
A POSSIBILITY...PARTICULARLY OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
THE SMALLER ISLANDS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TREND THE POPS
HIGHER...FOLLOWING GUIDANCE FROM ALL THE MODELS...GLOBAL AND HIGH
RES.

ALTHOUGH WE DO EXPECT TRADES TO RETURN...IT WILL BE A VERY SLOW
RETURN. LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
WIDESPREAD LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO THE ISLANDS. THIS COMBINATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE ISLANDS. AS
THE WINDS START TO PICK UP THIS WEEKEND...EVEN THOUGH THEY WILL
START TO BE FROM A MORE TRADE WIND DIRECTION...WIND SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. AS
SUCH...LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA BREEZES WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER THE
BACKGROUND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD FOCUS
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE EASTERN SIDES OF THE ISLANDS.

THE LIGHT WINDS ARE DUE TO A FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS
PUSHING THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS IT LIFTS NORTH...THE FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTH...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. THE
RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS WILL PREVENT TRADES
FROM EXCEEDING MODERATE LEVELS IN MOST AREAS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT APPROX 100NM NW OF KAUAI HAS PUSHED THE RIDGE OVER THE
ISLANDS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS AND LEEWARD BIG ISLAND AND ALLOW FOR A SEA/LAND BREEZE
REGIME TO REMAIN INTO FRIDAY. A LIGHT E-SE FLOW WILL REMAIN AROUND
WINDWARD BIG ISLAND.

MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH OF ENHANCE
MOISTURE OVER MAUI COUNTY AND THE THE BIG ISLAND. MORNING SOUNDINGS
ESTIMATE 1.58 AND 1.17 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER PHTO AND
PHLI RESPECTIVELY. WHILE OAHU AND KAUAI ARE IN A DRY SLOT THIS
MORNING...FORECAST MODELS SHOWS THE AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
SPREADING WEST INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT SEA BREEZES TO ALLOW FOR
INTERIOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO FORM OVER INTERIOR AREAS ON ALL
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS MAY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND
TOPS UP TO 150...ESPECIALLY OVER MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA IN THE WINDIER
MARINE ZONES AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO
THE STRENGTHENING TRADES.

THE SOUTH SHORES WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SWELL ACTION OVER THE
WEEKEND DUE TO A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SWELLS GENERATED BY SEVERAL
FAST-MOVING LOWS ARE ON THEIR WAY HERE THAT WILL RESULT IN A SMALL
TO MODERATE SIZE SURF OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. PEAKS IN SURF
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY...APPROACHING BUT STAYING
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

A NORTHWEST SWELL HAS REACHED THE ISLANDS AND AS EXPECTED. THIS
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TODAY...AND
THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...EATON










000
FXHW60 PHFO 021950
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY...WITH SOME HINTS OF LIGHT TRADE WINDS RETURNING SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TRADES SHOULD RETURN STATE WIDE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING LAND AND SEA BREEZES...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. THE LIGHT TRADE WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA BREEZES. EXPECT MORE TYPICAL TRADE WINDS AS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK APPROACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA BOTH SHOW MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
BIG ISLAND AND THE PORTIONS OF MAUI THIS MORNING THAN OVER THE
REMAINING ISLANDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS
OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS THIS MORNING...BUT VALUES REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE
KOOLAU RANGE ON OAHU...AND OVER THE INTERIOR OF KAUAI AT 9 AM. WITH
THIS COMBINATION...DO FEEL THAT AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS REMAIN
A POSSIBILITY...PARTICULARLY OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
THE SMALLER ISLANDS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TREND THE POPS
HIGHER...FOLLOWING GUIDANCE FROM ALL THE MODELS...GLOBAL AND HIGH
RES.

ALTHOUGH WE DO EXPECT TRADES TO RETURN...IT WILL BE A VERY SLOW
RETURN. LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
WIDESPREAD LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO THE ISLANDS. THIS COMBINATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE ISLANDS. AS
THE WINDS START TO PICK UP THIS WEEKEND...EVEN THOUGH THEY WILL
START TO BE FROM A MORE TRADE WIND DIRECTION...WIND SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. AS
SUCH...LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA BREEZES WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER THE
BACKGROUND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD FOCUS
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE EASTERN SIDES OF THE ISLANDS.

THE LIGHT WINDS ARE DUE TO A FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS
PUSHING THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS IT LIFTS NORTH...THE FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTH...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. THE
RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS WILL PREVENT TRADES
FROM EXCEEDING MODERATE LEVELS IN MOST AREAS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT APPROX 100NM NW OF KAUAI HAS PUSHED THE RIDGE OVER THE
ISLANDS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS AND LEEWARD BIG ISLAND AND ALLOW FOR A SEA/LAND BREEZE
REGIME TO REMAIN INTO FRIDAY. A LIGHT E-SE FLOW WILL REMAIN AROUND
WINDWARD BIG ISLAND.

MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH OF ENHANCE
MOISTURE OVER MAUI COUNTY AND THE THE BIG ISLAND. MORNING SOUNDINGS
ESTIMATE 1.58 AND 1.17 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER PHTO AND
PHLI RESPECTIVELY. WHILE OAHU AND KAUAI ARE IN A DRY SLOT THIS
MORNING...FORECAST MODELS SHOWS THE AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
SPREADING WEST INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT SEA BREEZES TO ALLOW FOR
INTERIOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO FORM OVER INTERIOR AREAS ON ALL
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS MAY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND
TOPS UP TO 150...ESPECIALLY OVER MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA IN THE WINDIER
MARINE ZONES AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO
THE STRENGTHENING TRADES.

THE SOUTH SHORES WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SWELL ACTION OVER THE
WEEKEND DUE TO A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SWELLS GENERATED BY SEVERAL
FAST-MOVING LOWS ARE ON THEIR WAY HERE THAT WILL RESULT IN A SMALL
TO MODERATE SIZE SURF OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. PEAKS IN SURF
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY...APPROACHING BUT STAYING
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

A NORTHWEST SWELL HAS REACHED THE ISLANDS AND AS EXPECTED. THIS
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TODAY...AND
THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...EATON










000
FXHW60 PHFO 021950
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY...WITH SOME HINTS OF LIGHT TRADE WINDS RETURNING SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TRADES SHOULD RETURN STATE WIDE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING LAND AND SEA BREEZES...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. THE LIGHT TRADE WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA BREEZES. EXPECT MORE TYPICAL TRADE WINDS AS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK APPROACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA BOTH SHOW MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
BIG ISLAND AND THE PORTIONS OF MAUI THIS MORNING THAN OVER THE
REMAINING ISLANDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS
OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS THIS MORNING...BUT VALUES REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE
KOOLAU RANGE ON OAHU...AND OVER THE INTERIOR OF KAUAI AT 9 AM. WITH
THIS COMBINATION...DO FEEL THAT AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS REMAIN
A POSSIBILITY...PARTICULARLY OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
THE SMALLER ISLANDS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TREND THE POPS
HIGHER...FOLLOWING GUIDANCE FROM ALL THE MODELS...GLOBAL AND HIGH
RES.

ALTHOUGH WE DO EXPECT TRADES TO RETURN...IT WILL BE A VERY SLOW
RETURN. LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
WIDESPREAD LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO THE ISLANDS. THIS COMBINATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE ISLANDS. AS
THE WINDS START TO PICK UP THIS WEEKEND...EVEN THOUGH THEY WILL
START TO BE FROM A MORE TRADE WIND DIRECTION...WIND SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. AS
SUCH...LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA BREEZES WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER THE
BACKGROUND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD FOCUS
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE EASTERN SIDES OF THE ISLANDS.

THE LIGHT WINDS ARE DUE TO A FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS
PUSHING THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS IT LIFTS NORTH...THE FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTH...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. THE
RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS WILL PREVENT TRADES
FROM EXCEEDING MODERATE LEVELS IN MOST AREAS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT APPROX 100NM NW OF KAUAI HAS PUSHED THE RIDGE OVER THE
ISLANDS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS AND LEEWARD BIG ISLAND AND ALLOW FOR A SEA/LAND BREEZE
REGIME TO REMAIN INTO FRIDAY. A LIGHT E-SE FLOW WILL REMAIN AROUND
WINDWARD BIG ISLAND.

MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH OF ENHANCE
MOISTURE OVER MAUI COUNTY AND THE THE BIG ISLAND. MORNING SOUNDINGS
ESTIMATE 1.58 AND 1.17 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER PHTO AND
PHLI RESPECTIVELY. WHILE OAHU AND KAUAI ARE IN A DRY SLOT THIS
MORNING...FORECAST MODELS SHOWS THE AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
SPREADING WEST INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT SEA BREEZES TO ALLOW FOR
INTERIOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO FORM OVER INTERIOR AREAS ON ALL
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS MAY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND
TOPS UP TO 150...ESPECIALLY OVER MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA IN THE WINDIER
MARINE ZONES AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO
THE STRENGTHENING TRADES.

THE SOUTH SHORES WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SWELL ACTION OVER THE
WEEKEND DUE TO A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SWELLS GENERATED BY SEVERAL
FAST-MOVING LOWS ARE ON THEIR WAY HERE THAT WILL RESULT IN A SMALL
TO MODERATE SIZE SURF OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. PEAKS IN SURF
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY...APPROACHING BUT STAYING
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

A NORTHWEST SWELL HAS REACHED THE ISLANDS AND AS EXPECTED. THIS
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TODAY...AND
THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...EATON











000
FXHW60 PHFO 021410
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT LIGHT TRADE WINDS TO START RETURNING TO THE SMALLER ISLANDS
AS EARLY AS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE FOURTH
OF JULY WEEKEND. FURTHER STRENGTHENING TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL BE
INCREASING GRADUALLY ALONG WITH THE STRENGTHENING TRADES. IN THE
MEAN TIME...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITION
CONTINUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE POCKET OF DRY AIR...CONTRARY TO THE MODEL SOLUTION...HAS BROKEN
DOWN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN THANKS TO AN
UNSEASONAL CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER THAT PART OF THE
STATE. RADAR IS DETECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH
KAUAI COUNTY AND OFF THE WAIANAE COAST THIS HOUR...POSING A THREAT
TO THESE TWO TO THREE ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON...SUBDUELING
THOSE SHOWERS IN THE PROCESS. BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD HAVE ROLLED ASHORE TO HELP FUEL THE DAYTIME CONVECTIVE
PROCESS. SO WE DO ANTICIPATE A FEW INTERIOR/LEEWARD SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR KAUAI AND OAHU. SKIES WILL CLEAR UP ONCE THE SUN SETS
THIS EVENING.

THE UNUSUAL SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN DUE A FRONT LOCATED 150 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. THE
FRONT WILL BE STALLING LATER THIS MORNING AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW
PULLS NORTHWARD. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND FILL DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS...ALLOWING STRONGER TRADES TO RETURN.

THE BIG ISLAND IS CURRENTLY UNDER A LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WIND
FLOW...AND THIS FLOW SHOULD BE SPREADING WEST TO OTHER PARTS OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN STARTING AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. THE PROCESS WILL BE SLOW
BUT WE ANTICIPATE ALL ISLANDS TO BE UNDER A LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE
WIND FLOW BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TRADES WILL BE HERE TO STAY...AT
LEAST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH FURTHER STRENGTHENING TO MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT INCREASING TRADE SHOWERS WITH
THE STRENGTHENING TRADES...FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
LEEWARD DISTRICTS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE DRY...WHILE
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS FAVORS THE KONA SLOPES. THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES AT THE UPPER LEVELS. SO THIS TRADE WIND
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RATHER BENIGN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BUT DO NOT
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TO WARRANT AN AIRMET.


&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA IN THE WINDIER
MARINE ZONES AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO
THE STRENGTHENING TRADES.

THE SOUTH SHORES WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SWELL ACTION OVER THE
WEEKEND DUE TO A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SWELLS GENERATED BY SEVERAL
FAST-MOVING LOWS ARE ON THEIR WAY HERE THAT WILL RESULT IN A SMALL
TO MODERATE SIZE SURF OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. PEAKS IN SURF
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY...APPROACHING BUT STAYING
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE NORTH FACING SIDE SHOULD ALSO HAVE SOME
SMALL SURF FROM A NORTHWEST SWELL. THIS SWELL HAS JUST REACH KAUAI
IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...IS FORECAST TO PEAK TODAY THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

LAU










000
FXHW60 PHFO 021410
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT LIGHT TRADE WINDS TO START RETURNING TO THE SMALLER ISLANDS
AS EARLY AS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE FOURTH
OF JULY WEEKEND. FURTHER STRENGTHENING TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL BE
INCREASING GRADUALLY ALONG WITH THE STRENGTHENING TRADES. IN THE
MEAN TIME...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITION
CONTINUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE POCKET OF DRY AIR...CONTRARY TO THE MODEL SOLUTION...HAS BROKEN
DOWN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN THANKS TO AN
UNSEASONAL CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER THAT PART OF THE
STATE. RADAR IS DETECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH
KAUAI COUNTY AND OFF THE WAIANAE COAST THIS HOUR...POSING A THREAT
TO THESE TWO TO THREE ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON...SUBDUELING
THOSE SHOWERS IN THE PROCESS. BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD HAVE ROLLED ASHORE TO HELP FUEL THE DAYTIME CONVECTIVE
PROCESS. SO WE DO ANTICIPATE A FEW INTERIOR/LEEWARD SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR KAUAI AND OAHU. SKIES WILL CLEAR UP ONCE THE SUN SETS
THIS EVENING.

THE UNUSUAL SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN DUE A FRONT LOCATED 150 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. THE
FRONT WILL BE STALLING LATER THIS MORNING AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW
PULLS NORTHWARD. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND FILL DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS...ALLOWING STRONGER TRADES TO RETURN.

THE BIG ISLAND IS CURRENTLY UNDER A LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WIND
FLOW...AND THIS FLOW SHOULD BE SPREADING WEST TO OTHER PARTS OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN STARTING AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. THE PROCESS WILL BE SLOW
BUT WE ANTICIPATE ALL ISLANDS TO BE UNDER A LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE
WIND FLOW BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TRADES WILL BE HERE TO STAY...AT
LEAST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH FURTHER STRENGTHENING TO MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT INCREASING TRADE SHOWERS WITH
THE STRENGTHENING TRADES...FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
LEEWARD DISTRICTS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE DRY...WHILE
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS FAVORS THE KONA SLOPES. THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES AT THE UPPER LEVELS. SO THIS TRADE WIND
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RATHER BENIGN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BUT DO NOT
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TO WARRANT AN AIRMET.


&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA IN THE WINDIER
MARINE ZONES AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO
THE STRENGTHENING TRADES.

THE SOUTH SHORES WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SWELL ACTION OVER THE
WEEKEND DUE TO A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SWELLS GENERATED BY SEVERAL
FAST-MOVING LOWS ARE ON THEIR WAY HERE THAT WILL RESULT IN A SMALL
TO MODERATE SIZE SURF OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. PEAKS IN SURF
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY...APPROACHING BUT STAYING
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE NORTH FACING SIDE SHOULD ALSO HAVE SOME
SMALL SURF FROM A NORTHWEST SWELL. THIS SWELL HAS JUST REACH KAUAI
IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...IS FORECAST TO PEAK TODAY THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

LAU










000
FXHW60 PHFO 021410
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT LIGHT TRADE WINDS TO START RETURNING TO THE SMALLER ISLANDS
AS EARLY AS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE FOURTH
OF JULY WEEKEND. FURTHER STRENGTHENING TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL BE
INCREASING GRADUALLY ALONG WITH THE STRENGTHENING TRADES. IN THE
MEAN TIME...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITION
CONTINUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE POCKET OF DRY AIR...CONTRARY TO THE MODEL SOLUTION...HAS BROKEN
DOWN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN THANKS TO AN
UNSEASONAL CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER THAT PART OF THE
STATE. RADAR IS DETECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH
KAUAI COUNTY AND OFF THE WAIANAE COAST THIS HOUR...POSING A THREAT
TO THESE TWO TO THREE ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON...SUBDUELING
THOSE SHOWERS IN THE PROCESS. BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD HAVE ROLLED ASHORE TO HELP FUEL THE DAYTIME CONVECTIVE
PROCESS. SO WE DO ANTICIPATE A FEW INTERIOR/LEEWARD SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR KAUAI AND OAHU. SKIES WILL CLEAR UP ONCE THE SUN SETS
THIS EVENING.

THE UNUSUAL SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN DUE A FRONT LOCATED 150 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. THE
FRONT WILL BE STALLING LATER THIS MORNING AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW
PULLS NORTHWARD. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND FILL DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS...ALLOWING STRONGER TRADES TO RETURN.

THE BIG ISLAND IS CURRENTLY UNDER A LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WIND
FLOW...AND THIS FLOW SHOULD BE SPREADING WEST TO OTHER PARTS OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN STARTING AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. THE PROCESS WILL BE SLOW
BUT WE ANTICIPATE ALL ISLANDS TO BE UNDER A LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE
WIND FLOW BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TRADES WILL BE HERE TO STAY...AT
LEAST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH FURTHER STRENGTHENING TO MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT INCREASING TRADE SHOWERS WITH
THE STRENGTHENING TRADES...FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
LEEWARD DISTRICTS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE DRY...WHILE
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS FAVORS THE KONA SLOPES. THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES AT THE UPPER LEVELS. SO THIS TRADE WIND
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RATHER BENIGN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BUT DO NOT
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TO WARRANT AN AIRMET.


&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA IN THE WINDIER
MARINE ZONES AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO
THE STRENGTHENING TRADES.

THE SOUTH SHORES WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SWELL ACTION OVER THE
WEEKEND DUE TO A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SWELLS GENERATED BY SEVERAL
FAST-MOVING LOWS ARE ON THEIR WAY HERE THAT WILL RESULT IN A SMALL
TO MODERATE SIZE SURF OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. PEAKS IN SURF
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY...APPROACHING BUT STAYING
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE NORTH FACING SIDE SHOULD ALSO HAVE SOME
SMALL SURF FROM A NORTHWEST SWELL. THIS SWELL HAS JUST REACH KAUAI
IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...IS FORECAST TO PEAK TODAY THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

LAU











000
FXHW60 PHFO 020640
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT LIGHT TRADE WINDS TO START RETURNING TO THE SMALLER ISLANDS
BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOLLOW BY SOME STRENGTHENING OVER
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. A POCKET OF DRY AIR NOW DRAPED OVER THE
SMALLER ISLANDS...WILL SLOWLY BECOME WETTER AS THE TRADE WINDS
RETURN. SO...THE ABSENCE OF THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY REAPPEAR MOST
LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE FORECAST FOR
THE WEEKEND WHICH MEANS SHOWERS FOR THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS
ESPECIALLY NIGHTS AND MORNINGS...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
FOR THE LEEWARD AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF ALL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE ANALYSIS OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT FOR THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REVEALED A POCKET OF DRY AIR OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS. THIS POCKET OF DRY AIR STARTED OVER THE BIG ISLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND HAS DRIFTED WESTWARD WITH ITS CORE NOW OVER OAHU.
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR THIS CORE TO EASE OVER KAUAI
THURSDAY AND FILL THERE BY FRIDAY. IN OTHER WORDS...ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL ISLANDS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...CALLING FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS FOR ESPECIALLY KAUAI AND OAHU IS LIKELY WELL OVER DONE. THIS
ADJUSTMENT WILL BE DONE FOR THE 4AM PACKAGE.

THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS STILL HAS A GOOD GRIP ON
THE ISLANDS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN WHERE THERE IS A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. BUT THE LOW IS FORECAST
TO START PULLING OUT THURSDAY...AND IT WILL BE ANOTHER 24 HOURS
BEFORE THESE TWO ISLANDS START FEELING THE TRADES AGAIN.

FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...THE TRADES SHOULD IN THE LIGHT TO
MODERATE RANGE WITH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF SHOWERS. THE TRADES WILL BE
LIGHT ENOUGH TO FAVOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR THE LEEWARD AND
INTERIOR AREAS.

THE TRADES ARE ON TAP TO REACH MODERATE SPEEDS AT THE START OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK. THIS MEANS A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND REGIME WITH A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN TRADE SHOWERS FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES AT THE UPPER LEVELS.
SO THIS TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RATHER BENIGN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A TRADE WIND FLOW OVER WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WILL BRING IN A
FEW SHOWERS...AND SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS. NO AIRMETS ARE
EXPECTED HOWEVER.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA IN THE WINDIER
MARINE ZONES AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TRADE
WINDS STRENGTHEN.

A FOR THE SURF...A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE HAS RESULTED TO SEVERAL FAST-MOVING LOWS THAT HAVE
GENERATED SWELLS AIMED AT HAWAII. SMALL TO MODERATE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
MAINTAINING SEASONABLY-SIZED MODERATE SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES. PEAKS IN SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY...
APPROACHING BUT STAYING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. OTHERWISE...A SMALL
AND RELATIVELY SHORT-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...PEAK
THURSDAY AND SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS
WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

LAU









000
FXHW60 PHFO 020640
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT LIGHT TRADE WINDS TO START RETURNING TO THE SMALLER ISLANDS
BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOLLOW BY SOME STRENGTHENING OVER
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. A POCKET OF DRY AIR NOW DRAPED OVER THE
SMALLER ISLANDS...WILL SLOWLY BECOME WETTER AS THE TRADE WINDS
RETURN. SO...THE ABSENCE OF THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY REAPPEAR MOST
LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE FORECAST FOR
THE WEEKEND WHICH MEANS SHOWERS FOR THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS
ESPECIALLY NIGHTS AND MORNINGS...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
FOR THE LEEWARD AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF ALL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE ANALYSIS OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT FOR THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REVEALED A POCKET OF DRY AIR OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS. THIS POCKET OF DRY AIR STARTED OVER THE BIG ISLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND HAS DRIFTED WESTWARD WITH ITS CORE NOW OVER OAHU.
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR THIS CORE TO EASE OVER KAUAI
THURSDAY AND FILL THERE BY FRIDAY. IN OTHER WORDS...ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL ISLANDS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...CALLING FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS FOR ESPECIALLY KAUAI AND OAHU IS LIKELY WELL OVER DONE. THIS
ADJUSTMENT WILL BE DONE FOR THE 4AM PACKAGE.

THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS STILL HAS A GOOD GRIP ON
THE ISLANDS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN WHERE THERE IS A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. BUT THE LOW IS FORECAST
TO START PULLING OUT THURSDAY...AND IT WILL BE ANOTHER 24 HOURS
BEFORE THESE TWO ISLANDS START FEELING THE TRADES AGAIN.

FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...THE TRADES SHOULD IN THE LIGHT TO
MODERATE RANGE WITH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF SHOWERS. THE TRADES WILL BE
LIGHT ENOUGH TO FAVOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR THE LEEWARD AND
INTERIOR AREAS.

THE TRADES ARE ON TAP TO REACH MODERATE SPEEDS AT THE START OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK. THIS MEANS A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND REGIME WITH A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN TRADE SHOWERS FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES AT THE UPPER LEVELS.
SO THIS TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RATHER BENIGN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A TRADE WIND FLOW OVER WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WILL BRING IN A
FEW SHOWERS...AND SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS. NO AIRMETS ARE
EXPECTED HOWEVER.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA IN THE WINDIER
MARINE ZONES AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TRADE
WINDS STRENGTHEN.

A FOR THE SURF...A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE HAS RESULTED TO SEVERAL FAST-MOVING LOWS THAT HAVE
GENERATED SWELLS AIMED AT HAWAII. SMALL TO MODERATE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
MAINTAINING SEASONABLY-SIZED MODERATE SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES. PEAKS IN SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY...
APPROACHING BUT STAYING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. OTHERWISE...A SMALL
AND RELATIVELY SHORT-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...PEAK
THURSDAY AND SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS
WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

LAU










000
FXHW60 PHFO 020145
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
345 PM HST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LIGHT
TRADE WINDS RETURNING OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONGER TRADE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. ALSO...DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE ISLANDS. AS TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FOCUS OVER WINDWARD AREAS DURING NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH LIGHT...AN UNSEASONABLE SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR KAUAI
CONTINUES AS ONE OF THE MORE EYE-CATCHING FEATURES ON REGIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...AS TRADE WINDS TYPICALLY DOMINATE
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN JULY. WINDS NEAR OAHU ARE AS LIGHT AS THEY CAN
BE ON THE LARGE SCALE...WITH A SURFACE COL OVERHEAD. MEANWHILE A
LIGHT E/SE FLOW PREVAILS NEAR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...BUT THE
AREAS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE OVER THEIR NEAR
SHORE WINDWARD WATERS THIS MORNING HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. ASIDE FROM
THE COL...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A FRONT JUST OVER 200 MILES NW
OF KAUAI...AND SURFACE RIDGES EXTENDING TOWARD THE ISLANDS FROM THE
ENE AND FROM THE W. THE LIGHT WINDS ALLOWED CLOUDS AND JUST A FEW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...AS SEA BREEZES
CONVERGED. THE LIGHT WINDS ALSO ALLOWED MORE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO BE SET...INCLUDING A TIE FOR THE WARMEST JULY DAY
EVER OBSERVED AT LIHUE. A RECORD EVENT REPORT WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.

THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS...
WHICH WILL ALLOW LAND BREEZES TO CLEARING SKIES. THE EXCEPTION
OVERNIGHT COULD BE THE BIG ISLAND...WHERE LIGHT ESE WINDS MAY
DELIVER A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE HILO AND KAU DISTRICTS.

THE FRONT CURRENTLY NW OF KAUAI WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A DIFFERENT FRONT STALLS FARTHER TO THE NW.
THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE ENE WILL
THUS REMAIN SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD OVER THE CHAIN...KEEPING WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADES NEAR AND S OF THE BIG ISLAND. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE PATTERN
OF WARM AND MUGGY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEAR AND SOMEWHAT COOLER MORNINGS. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
MOVE N OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL DO SO SLOWLY...ALLOWING A GRADUAL
RETURN/STRENGTHENING OF THE TRADE WIND FLOW. LOCAL LAND AND SEA
BREEZES WILL STILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...WITH A FEW
WINDWARD SHOWERS DELIVERED BY THE TRADES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW AFTERNOON LEEWARD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

A FAIRLY BENIGN TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS FOR NEXT
WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE AREA...AND THE PRESSURE
LIKELY DROPS TO THE S OF THE ISLANDS...POTENTIALLY DUE TO A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL LOW. MOISTURE N OF THIS FEATURE COULD
BRING INCREASED TRADE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE STATE INTO FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE
EXTENDS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE
THE CONTINUATION OF A LAND-SEA BREEZE REGIME. AFTERNOON CLOUDS OVER
THE INTERIOR AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT AS THE LAND COOLS OVERNIGHT AND
SEA BREEZES GIVE WAY TO LAND BREEZES. CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAY LINGER OVER WINDWARD BIG ISLAND TONIGHT AS ENHANCED MOISTURE
AND A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW REMAIN NEAR THE BIG ISLAND. EXPECT VFR
TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA IN THE WINDIER
MARINE ZONES AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TRADE
WINDS STRENGTHEN.

WITH RESPECT TO SURF...A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE S
HEMISPHERE HAS LED TO SEVERAL FAST-MOVING LOWS THAT HAVE GENERATED
SWELLS AIMED TOWARD HAWAII. THUS...PULSES OF SMALL TO MODERATE S AND
SW SWELL WILL ARRIVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MAINTAINING
SEASONABLY-SIZED MODERATE SURF ALONG S FACING SHORES. PEAKS IN SURF
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY...APPROACHING BUT
REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. OTHERWISE...A SMALL AND RELATIVELY
SHORT-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...PEAK THURSDAY AND SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS WELL BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 020145
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
345 PM HST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LIGHT
TRADE WINDS RETURNING OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONGER TRADE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. ALSO...DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE ISLANDS. AS TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FOCUS OVER WINDWARD AREAS DURING NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH LIGHT...AN UNSEASONABLE SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR KAUAI
CONTINUES AS ONE OF THE MORE EYE-CATCHING FEATURES ON REGIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...AS TRADE WINDS TYPICALLY DOMINATE
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN JULY. WINDS NEAR OAHU ARE AS LIGHT AS THEY CAN
BE ON THE LARGE SCALE...WITH A SURFACE COL OVERHEAD. MEANWHILE A
LIGHT E/SE FLOW PREVAILS NEAR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...BUT THE
AREAS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE OVER THEIR NEAR
SHORE WINDWARD WATERS THIS MORNING HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. ASIDE FROM
THE COL...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A FRONT JUST OVER 200 MILES NW
OF KAUAI...AND SURFACE RIDGES EXTENDING TOWARD THE ISLANDS FROM THE
ENE AND FROM THE W. THE LIGHT WINDS ALLOWED CLOUDS AND JUST A FEW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...AS SEA BREEZES
CONVERGED. THE LIGHT WINDS ALSO ALLOWED MORE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO BE SET...INCLUDING A TIE FOR THE WARMEST JULY DAY
EVER OBSERVED AT LIHUE. A RECORD EVENT REPORT WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.

THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS...
WHICH WILL ALLOW LAND BREEZES TO CLEARING SKIES. THE EXCEPTION
OVERNIGHT COULD BE THE BIG ISLAND...WHERE LIGHT ESE WINDS MAY
DELIVER A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE HILO AND KAU DISTRICTS.

THE FRONT CURRENTLY NW OF KAUAI WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A DIFFERENT FRONT STALLS FARTHER TO THE NW.
THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE ENE WILL
THUS REMAIN SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD OVER THE CHAIN...KEEPING WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADES NEAR AND S OF THE BIG ISLAND. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE PATTERN
OF WARM AND MUGGY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEAR AND SOMEWHAT COOLER MORNINGS. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
MOVE N OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL DO SO SLOWLY...ALLOWING A GRADUAL
RETURN/STRENGTHENING OF THE TRADE WIND FLOW. LOCAL LAND AND SEA
BREEZES WILL STILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...WITH A FEW
WINDWARD SHOWERS DELIVERED BY THE TRADES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW AFTERNOON LEEWARD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

A FAIRLY BENIGN TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS FOR NEXT
WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE AREA...AND THE PRESSURE
LIKELY DROPS TO THE S OF THE ISLANDS...POTENTIALLY DUE TO A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL LOW. MOISTURE N OF THIS FEATURE COULD
BRING INCREASED TRADE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE STATE INTO FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE
EXTENDS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE
THE CONTINUATION OF A LAND-SEA BREEZE REGIME. AFTERNOON CLOUDS OVER
THE INTERIOR AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT AS THE LAND COOLS OVERNIGHT AND
SEA BREEZES GIVE WAY TO LAND BREEZES. CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAY LINGER OVER WINDWARD BIG ISLAND TONIGHT AS ENHANCED MOISTURE
AND A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW REMAIN NEAR THE BIG ISLAND. EXPECT VFR
TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA IN THE WINDIER
MARINE ZONES AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TRADE
WINDS STRENGTHEN.

WITH RESPECT TO SURF...A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE S
HEMISPHERE HAS LED TO SEVERAL FAST-MOVING LOWS THAT HAVE GENERATED
SWELLS AIMED TOWARD HAWAII. THUS...PULSES OF SMALL TO MODERATE S AND
SW SWELL WILL ARRIVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MAINTAINING
SEASONABLY-SIZED MODERATE SURF ALONG S FACING SHORES. PEAKS IN SURF
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY...APPROACHING BUT
REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. OTHERWISE...A SMALL AND RELATIVELY
SHORT-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...PEAK THURSDAY AND SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS WELL BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON






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