Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXHW60 PHFO 311937
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENTLE TRADES SUNDAY AS A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
INTERIOR OF THE ISLANDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE TYPICAL WINDWARD
AND MAUKA SHOWERS SUNDAY. A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY WILL TURN THE WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL BRING LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES
TO THE ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE WINDS AND WEATHER OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...SOME LOCATIONS
WILL SEE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES...SO EXPECT MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.

HEADING INTO MONDAY...THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS IN
PARTICULAR OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE WITH REGARDS TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS. THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE VARIED SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE PLACEMENT AND
STRENGTH OF LOWS PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS DISCONTINUITY PERSISTS...WITH THE GFS
CONTINUING TO SHOW STRONGER AND STRONGER SYSTEMS MOVING NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THE GFS SOLUTION TO PAN OUT...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY. CONSENSUS TODAY
WITH COLLABORATION WITH THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER IS TO FOLLOW
THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE SHOWN MORE DEFINED FEATURES
PASSING OVER THE ISLANDS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES DOWN THE
ISLAND CHAIN WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTHWEST
OF THE ISLANDS...BEFORE TURNING NORTHERLY AGAIN SATURDAY BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. A NEW SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVER THE ISLANDS
SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LIGHT TRADES BY SUNDAY.

WITH THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS...PERIODS OF INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLANDS. AT LEAST THAT/S THE
CONSENSUS OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF. ITS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS OUT...SO TIMING AND REFINEMENT OF THE FORECAST WILL COME WITH
FUTURE RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE SEA BREEZES TODAY...WITH CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SHOWERS FOCUSED ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR...WITH BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
IN SHOWERS NEAR KAUAI/OAHU. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS
MAUI COUNTY/BIG ISLAND...WHERE GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LOCATED. NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...BUT WE MAY NEED ONE
DURING THE AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON HOW ACTIVE AND ANCHORED SHOWERS
BECOME OVER THE TERRAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF OF
THE SMALLER ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH
AND WEST FACING SHORES REMAINS POSTED...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
BEYOND 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING IF BUOY READINGS SHOW THE SWELL REMAINS
ELEVATED LATER TONIGHT. THIS NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL SHOULD START TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE CURRENT SWELL IS ALSO PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS IN EXCESS OF 10
FT...SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED FOR AREAS
EXPOSED TO THE SWELL. WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS THIS WEEKEND...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT...WINDS MAY REACH SCA
LATE MONDAY PARTICULARLY NEAR KAUAI...OAHU AND MOLOKAI.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU...KAUAI...OAHU...AND MOLOKAI...AND FOR NORTH
FACING SHORES OF MAUI.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR THE WATERS
SURROUNDING KAUAI...THE OAHU WINDWARD WATERS...THE KAIWI CHANNEL AND
THE MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...BRAVENDER







000
FXHW60 PHFO 311937
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENTLE TRADES SUNDAY AS A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
INTERIOR OF THE ISLANDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE TYPICAL WINDWARD
AND MAUKA SHOWERS SUNDAY. A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY WILL TURN THE WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL BRING LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES
TO THE ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE WINDS AND WEATHER OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...SOME LOCATIONS
WILL SEE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES...SO EXPECT MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.

HEADING INTO MONDAY...THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS IN
PARTICULAR OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE WITH REGARDS TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS. THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE VARIED SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE PLACEMENT AND
STRENGTH OF LOWS PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS DISCONTINUITY PERSISTS...WITH THE GFS
CONTINUING TO SHOW STRONGER AND STRONGER SYSTEMS MOVING NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THE GFS SOLUTION TO PAN OUT...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY. CONSENSUS TODAY
WITH COLLABORATION WITH THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER IS TO FOLLOW
THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE SHOWN MORE DEFINED FEATURES
PASSING OVER THE ISLANDS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES DOWN THE
ISLAND CHAIN WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTHWEST
OF THE ISLANDS...BEFORE TURNING NORTHERLY AGAIN SATURDAY BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. A NEW SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVER THE ISLANDS
SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LIGHT TRADES BY SUNDAY.

WITH THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS...PERIODS OF INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLANDS. AT LEAST THAT/S THE
CONSENSUS OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF. ITS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS OUT...SO TIMING AND REFINEMENT OF THE FORECAST WILL COME WITH
FUTURE RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE SEA BREEZES TODAY...WITH CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SHOWERS FOCUSED ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR...WITH BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
IN SHOWERS NEAR KAUAI/OAHU. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS
MAUI COUNTY/BIG ISLAND...WHERE GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LOCATED. NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...BUT WE MAY NEED ONE
DURING THE AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON HOW ACTIVE AND ANCHORED SHOWERS
BECOME OVER THE TERRAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF OF
THE SMALLER ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH
AND WEST FACING SHORES REMAINS POSTED...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
BEYOND 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING IF BUOY READINGS SHOW THE SWELL REMAINS
ELEVATED LATER TONIGHT. THIS NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL SHOULD START TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE CURRENT SWELL IS ALSO PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS IN EXCESS OF 10
FT...SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED FOR AREAS
EXPOSED TO THE SWELL. WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS THIS WEEKEND...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT...WINDS MAY REACH SCA
LATE MONDAY PARTICULARLY NEAR KAUAI...OAHU AND MOLOKAI.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU...KAUAI...OAHU...AND MOLOKAI...AND FOR NORTH
FACING SHORES OF MAUI.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR THE WATERS
SURROUNDING KAUAI...THE OAHU WINDWARD WATERS...THE KAIWI CHANNEL AND
THE MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...BRAVENDER








000
FXHW60 PHFO 311433 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS ARE GRADUALLY RETURNING TO THE ALOHA STATE THIS WEEKEND
AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP OVER LEEWARD SECTIONS EACH AFTERNOON. STARTING LATE
MONDAY...A FRONT APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CAUSE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WET WEATHER TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...THE CIRCULATION AROUND A
BROAD SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND WET WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE
STATE. THESE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE TAIL END OF A WEAKENING NORTH NORTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EVIDENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE BIG ISLAND
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN ADDITION TO THE FORMER FRONT...A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES IS KEEPING WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ABOVE THE
STATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE EARLY MORNING BALLOON SOUNDINGS
FROM HILO AND LIHUE INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL.
HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF KAUAI IS PROPAGATING
SLOWLY TOWARD THE ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING SOME DYNAMIC
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION...SO THE COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS MANY PARTS OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN COMPARED WITH EARLIER TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER
DRY NEAR KAUAI ACCORDING TO THE EARLY MORNING SOUNDING...WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...THERE
ARE LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD AND
SOUTHEASTERN BIG ISLAND. RADAR REFLECTIVITY RETURNS APPEAR TO
INDICATE THE SHOWERS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT.

THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. THEY ALSO SHOW THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ISLANDS...
WHICH WILL ALLOW WEAK TRADES TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND. RELATIVELY DRY
AIR WILL ALSO BE OVER THE ISLANDS...AND THE TRADES WILL CARRY SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY INTO WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS
OF THE ISLANDS. SOME SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER LEEWARD SECTIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BRIEF PERIOD OF TRADES WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY. BY LATE MONDAY...A FRONT WILL APPROACH KAUAI FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL NOT ONLY BRING WET WEATHER TO THE
ISLANDS...BUT IT WILL INCREASE SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE STATE.
THESE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST FACING SLOPES
OF SOME OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE PARENT
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...BOTH AGREE THAT
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS ALSO INDICATE CLOUDY AND
WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE
MODELS APPEAR TO BRING 1 OR 2 ADDITIONAL FRONTS DOWN ACROSS THE
ISLANDS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS MODEL
SHOWS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE STATE AS THE BROAD SURFACE LOW SPINS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
ECMWF MODEL SHOWS SOMEWHAT WEAKER WESTERLY WINDS...SO WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE FUTURE CHANGES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT BEFORE WE CAN BE
CERTAIN THAT THEY HAVE CONVERGED ON A REALISTIC SOLUTION.

WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE CURRENT
FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY IS A BLEND OF THE MODELS. HOWEVER...DURING
TIME PERIODS WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION. FURTHER
REFINEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS BECOME
AVAILABLE.

FINALLY...ASSUMING THERE IS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS...
THIS WIND DIRECTION IS VERY UNUSUAL IN THE ISLANDS FOR MORE THAN A
DAY OR TWO. NOTE THAT WINDS FROM THE WEST MAY PRODUCE LOCAL
ACCELERATIONS AND STRONG GUSTS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING ON THE DOWNWIND
SIDES OF HIGHER TERRAIN...SUCH AS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE WAIANAE AND KOOLAU MOUNTAIN RANGES ON OAHU. SHOULD
THESE UNUSUALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS OCCUR OVER A PERIOD OF DAYS...THERE
MAY BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRUCTURES AND VEGETATION TO BE ADVERSELY
IMPACTED. LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY...
ESPECIALLY IF THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN
THAT ADDS ADDITIONAL STRESS TO WEAK TREE LIMBS. ANYBODY LIVING IN
THESE POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING LOCAL WIND EFFECTS
DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS...
INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHEAST-FACING
SLOPES OF THE EASTERN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER IS
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ISSUANCE OF AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ACROSS ALL BIG ISLAND SLOPES ABOVE 3000 FEET AND BELOW
7000 FEET. THIS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF ALONG
MOST NORTH AND SOME WEST FACING SHORES OF THE SMALLER HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM
NATIONAL DATA BUOY CENTER BUOY NUMBER 51101 LOCATED NORTHWEST OF
KAUAI INDICATES THE SWELL HEIGHT IS 11 TO 12 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF
AROUND 14 SECONDS. CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS...THE WAIMEA BUOY READINGS
WERE 8 TO 9 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 13 SECONDS. WEST FACING
SHORES OF OAHU AND MOLOKAI HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 6 AM
HST SUNDAY MORNING IF BUOY READINGS SHOW THE SWELL REMAINS ELEVATED
LATER TONIGHT. THIS NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL SHOULD START TO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO HIGH SURF ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE...THE ELEVATED
SWELL HAS INCREASED SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN COASTAL
WATERS TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ THRESHOLD THROUGH TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS FOR THE
WATERS SURROUNDING KAUAI...THE OAHU WINDWARD WATERS...THE KAIWI
CHANNEL AND THE MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.

WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE SCA CRITERIA THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AS SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEGIN TO
INCREASE...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE SCA CRITERIA ACROSS PARTS
OF THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS STARTING LATE MONDAY. STRONG SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE
WINDS...SEAS WILL ALSO BECOME ELEVATED AGAIN NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU...KAUAI...OAHU...AND MOLOKAI...AND FOR NORTH
FACING SHORES OF MAUI.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR THE WATERS
SURROUNDING KAUAI...THE OAHU WINDWARD WATERS...THE KAIWI CHANNEL AND
THE MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...POWELL








000
FXHW60 PHFO 311433 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS ARE GRADUALLY RETURNING TO THE ALOHA STATE THIS WEEKEND
AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP OVER LEEWARD SECTIONS EACH AFTERNOON. STARTING LATE
MONDAY...A FRONT APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CAUSE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WET WEATHER TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...THE CIRCULATION AROUND A
BROAD SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND WET WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE
STATE. THESE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE TAIL END OF A WEAKENING NORTH NORTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EVIDENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE BIG ISLAND
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN ADDITION TO THE FORMER FRONT...A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES IS KEEPING WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ABOVE THE
STATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE EARLY MORNING BALLOON SOUNDINGS
FROM HILO AND LIHUE INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL.
HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF KAUAI IS PROPAGATING
SLOWLY TOWARD THE ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING SOME DYNAMIC
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION...SO THE COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS MANY PARTS OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN COMPARED WITH EARLIER TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER
DRY NEAR KAUAI ACCORDING TO THE EARLY MORNING SOUNDING...WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...THERE
ARE LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD AND
SOUTHEASTERN BIG ISLAND. RADAR REFLECTIVITY RETURNS APPEAR TO
INDICATE THE SHOWERS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT.

THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. THEY ALSO SHOW THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ISLANDS...
WHICH WILL ALLOW WEAK TRADES TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND. RELATIVELY DRY
AIR WILL ALSO BE OVER THE ISLANDS...AND THE TRADES WILL CARRY SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY INTO WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS
OF THE ISLANDS. SOME SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER LEEWARD SECTIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BRIEF PERIOD OF TRADES WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY. BY LATE MONDAY...A FRONT WILL APPROACH KAUAI FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL NOT ONLY BRING WET WEATHER TO THE
ISLANDS...BUT IT WILL INCREASE SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE STATE.
THESE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST FACING SLOPES
OF SOME OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE PARENT
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...BOTH AGREE THAT
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS ALSO INDICATE CLOUDY AND
WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE
MODELS APPEAR TO BRING 1 OR 2 ADDITIONAL FRONTS DOWN ACROSS THE
ISLANDS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS MODEL
SHOWS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE STATE AS THE BROAD SURFACE LOW SPINS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
ECMWF MODEL SHOWS SOMEWHAT WEAKER WESTERLY WINDS...SO WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE FUTURE CHANGES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT BEFORE WE CAN BE
CERTAIN THAT THEY HAVE CONVERGED ON A REALISTIC SOLUTION.

WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE CURRENT
FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY IS A BLEND OF THE MODELS. HOWEVER...DURING
TIME PERIODS WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION. FURTHER
REFINEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS BECOME
AVAILABLE.

FINALLY...ASSUMING THERE IS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS...
THIS WIND DIRECTION IS VERY UNUSUAL IN THE ISLANDS FOR MORE THAN A
DAY OR TWO. NOTE THAT WINDS FROM THE WEST MAY PRODUCE LOCAL
ACCELERATIONS AND STRONG GUSTS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING ON THE DOWNWIND
SIDES OF HIGHER TERRAIN...SUCH AS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE WAIANAE AND KOOLAU MOUNTAIN RANGES ON OAHU. SHOULD
THESE UNUSUALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS OCCUR OVER A PERIOD OF DAYS...THERE
MAY BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRUCTURES AND VEGETATION TO BE ADVERSELY
IMPACTED. LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY...
ESPECIALLY IF THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN
THAT ADDS ADDITIONAL STRESS TO WEAK TREE LIMBS. ANYBODY LIVING IN
THESE POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING LOCAL WIND EFFECTS
DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS...
INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHEAST-FACING
SLOPES OF THE EASTERN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER IS
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ISSUANCE OF AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ACROSS ALL BIG ISLAND SLOPES ABOVE 3000 FEET AND BELOW
7000 FEET. THIS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF ALONG
MOST NORTH AND SOME WEST FACING SHORES OF THE SMALLER HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM
NATIONAL DATA BUOY CENTER BUOY NUMBER 51101 LOCATED NORTHWEST OF
KAUAI INDICATES THE SWELL HEIGHT IS 11 TO 12 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF
AROUND 14 SECONDS. CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS...THE WAIMEA BUOY READINGS
WERE 8 TO 9 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 13 SECONDS. WEST FACING
SHORES OF OAHU AND MOLOKAI HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 6 AM
HST SUNDAY MORNING IF BUOY READINGS SHOW THE SWELL REMAINS ELEVATED
LATER TONIGHT. THIS NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL SHOULD START TO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO HIGH SURF ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE...THE ELEVATED
SWELL HAS INCREASED SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN COASTAL
WATERS TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ THRESHOLD THROUGH TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS FOR THE
WATERS SURROUNDING KAUAI...THE OAHU WINDWARD WATERS...THE KAIWI
CHANNEL AND THE MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.

WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE SCA CRITERIA THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AS SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEGIN TO
INCREASE...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE SCA CRITERIA ACROSS PARTS
OF THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS STARTING LATE MONDAY. STRONG SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE
WINDS...SEAS WILL ALSO BECOME ELEVATED AGAIN NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU...KAUAI...OAHU...AND MOLOKAI...AND FOR NORTH
FACING SHORES OF MAUI.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR THE WATERS
SURROUNDING KAUAI...THE OAHU WINDWARD WATERS...THE KAIWI CHANNEL AND
THE MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...POWELL







000
FXHW60 PHFO 311421
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS ARE GRADUALLY RETURNING TO THE ALOHA STATE THIS WEEKEND
AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP OVER LEEWARD SECTIONS EACH AFTERNOON. STARTING LATE
MONDAY...A FRONT APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CAUSE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WET WEATHER TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...THE CIRCULATION AROUND A
BROAD SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND WET WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE
STATE. THESE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE TAIL END OF A WEAKENING NORTH NORTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EVIDENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE BIG ISLAND
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN ADDITION TO THE FORMER FRONT...A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES IS KEEPING WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ABOVE THE
STATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE EARLY MORNING BALLOON SOUNDINGS
FROM HILO AND LIHUE INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL.
HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF KAUAI IS PROPAGATING
SLOWLY TOWARD THE ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING SOME DYNAMIC
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION...SO THE COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS MANY PARTS OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN COMPARED WITH EARLIER TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER
DRY NEAR KAUAI ACCORDING TO THE EARLY MORNING SOUNDING...WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...THERE
ARE LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD AND
SOUTHEASTERN BIG ISLAND. RADAR REFLECTIVITY RETURNS APPEAR TO
INDICATE THE SHOWERS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT.

THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. THEY ALSO SHOW THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ISLANDS...
WHICH WILL ALLOW WEAK TRADES TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND. RELATIVELY DRY
AIR WILL ALSO BE OVER THE ISLANDS...AND THE TRADES WILL CARRY SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY INTO WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS
OF THE ISLANDS. SOME SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER LEEWARD SECTIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BRIEF PERIOD OF TRADES WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY. BY LATE MONDAY...A FRONT WILL APPROACH KAUAI FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL NOT ONLY BRING WET WEATHER TO THE
ISLANDS...BUT IT WILL INCREASE SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE STATE.
THESE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST FACING SLOPES
OF SOME OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE PARENT
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...BOTH AGREE THAT
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS ALSO INDICATE CLOUDY AND
WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE
MODELS BRINGS ADDITIONAL FRONTS DOWN ACROSS THE ISLANDS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE AS THE
BROAD SURFACE LOW SPINS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS
SOMEWHAT WEAKER WESTERLY WINDS...SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
FUTURE CHANGES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT BEFORE WE CAN BE CERTAIN THAT
THEY HAVE CONVERGED ON A REALISTIC SOLUTION.

WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE CURRENT
FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY IS A BLEND OF THE MODELS. HOWEVER... DURING
TIME PERIODS WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION. FURTHER
REFINEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE EXAMINED.

FINALLY...ASSUMING THERE IS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS...
THIS WIND DIRECTION IS VERY UNUSUAL IN THE ISLANDS FOR MORE THAN A
DAY OR TWO. NOTE THAT WINDS FROM THE WEST MAY PRODUCE LOCAL
ACCELERATIONS AND STRONG GUSTS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING ON THE DOWNWIND
SIDES OF HIGHER TERRAIN...SUCH AS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE WAIANAE AND KOOLAU MOUNTAIN RANGES ON OAHU. SHOULD
THESE UNUSUALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS OCCUR OVER A PERIOD OF DAYS...THERE
MAY BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRUCTURES AND VEGETATION TO BE ADVERSELY
IMPACTED. LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY...
ESPECIALLY IF THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN
THAT ADDS ADDITIONAL STRESS TO WEAK TREE LIMBS. ANYBODY LIVING IN
THESE POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING LOCAL WIND EFFECTS
DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS...
INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHEAST-FACING
SLOPES OF THE EASTERN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER IS
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ISSUANCE OF AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ACROSS ALL BIG ISLAND SLOPES ABOVE 3000 FEET AND BELOW
7000 FEET. THIS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF ALONG
MOST NORTH AND SOME WEST FACING SHORES OF THE SMALLER HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM
NATIONAL DATA BUOY CENTER BUOY NUMBER 51101 LOCATED NORTHWEST OF
KAUAI INDICATES THE SWELL HEIGHT IS 11 TO 12 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF
AROUND 14 SECONDS. CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS...THE WAIMEA BUOY READINGS
WERE 8 TO 9 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 13 SECONDS. WEST FACING
SHORES OF OAHU AND MOLOKAI HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 6 AM
HST SUNDAY MORNING IF BUOY READINGS SHOW THE SWELL REMAINS ELEVATED
LATER TONIGHT. THIS NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL SHOULD START TO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO HIGH SURF ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE...THE ELEVATED
SWELL HAS INCREASED SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN COASTAL
WATERS TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ THRESHOLD THROUGH TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS FOR THE
WATERS SURROUNDING KAUAI...THE OAHU WINDWARD WATERS...THE KAIWI
CHANNEL AND THE MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.

WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE SCA CRITERIA THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AS SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEGIN TO
INCREASE...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE SCA CRITERIA ACROSS PARTS
OF THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS STARTING LATE MONDAY. STRONG SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE
WINDS...SEAS WILL ALSO BECOME ELEVATED AGAIN NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI...AND FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU...
MOLOKAI AND MAUI.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR THE WATERS
SURROUNDING KAUAI...THE OAHU WINDWARD WATERS...THE KAIWI CHANNEL AND
THE MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...POWELL






000
FXHW60 PHFO 311421
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS ARE GRADUALLY RETURNING TO THE ALOHA STATE THIS WEEKEND
AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP OVER LEEWARD SECTIONS EACH AFTERNOON. STARTING LATE
MONDAY...A FRONT APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CAUSE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WET WEATHER TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...THE CIRCULATION AROUND A
BROAD SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND WET WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE
STATE. THESE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE TAIL END OF A WEAKENING NORTH NORTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EVIDENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE BIG ISLAND
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN ADDITION TO THE FORMER FRONT...A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES IS KEEPING WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ABOVE THE
STATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE EARLY MORNING BALLOON SOUNDINGS
FROM HILO AND LIHUE INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL.
HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF KAUAI IS PROPAGATING
SLOWLY TOWARD THE ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING SOME DYNAMIC
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION...SO THE COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS MANY PARTS OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN COMPARED WITH EARLIER TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER
DRY NEAR KAUAI ACCORDING TO THE EARLY MORNING SOUNDING...WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...THERE
ARE LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD AND
SOUTHEASTERN BIG ISLAND. RADAR REFLECTIVITY RETURNS APPEAR TO
INDICATE THE SHOWERS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT.

THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. THEY ALSO SHOW THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ISLANDS...
WHICH WILL ALLOW WEAK TRADES TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND. RELATIVELY DRY
AIR WILL ALSO BE OVER THE ISLANDS...AND THE TRADES WILL CARRY SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY INTO WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS
OF THE ISLANDS. SOME SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER LEEWARD SECTIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BRIEF PERIOD OF TRADES WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY. BY LATE MONDAY...A FRONT WILL APPROACH KAUAI FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL NOT ONLY BRING WET WEATHER TO THE
ISLANDS...BUT IT WILL INCREASE SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE STATE.
THESE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST FACING SLOPES
OF SOME OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE PARENT
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...BOTH AGREE THAT
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS ALSO INDICATE CLOUDY AND
WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE
MODELS BRINGS ADDITIONAL FRONTS DOWN ACROSS THE ISLANDS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE AS THE
BROAD SURFACE LOW SPINS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS
SOMEWHAT WEAKER WESTERLY WINDS...SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
FUTURE CHANGES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT BEFORE WE CAN BE CERTAIN THAT
THEY HAVE CONVERGED ON A REALISTIC SOLUTION.

WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE CURRENT
FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY IS A BLEND OF THE MODELS. HOWEVER... DURING
TIME PERIODS WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION. FURTHER
REFINEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE EXAMINED.

FINALLY...ASSUMING THERE IS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS...
THIS WIND DIRECTION IS VERY UNUSUAL IN THE ISLANDS FOR MORE THAN A
DAY OR TWO. NOTE THAT WINDS FROM THE WEST MAY PRODUCE LOCAL
ACCELERATIONS AND STRONG GUSTS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING ON THE DOWNWIND
SIDES OF HIGHER TERRAIN...SUCH AS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE WAIANAE AND KOOLAU MOUNTAIN RANGES ON OAHU. SHOULD
THESE UNUSUALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS OCCUR OVER A PERIOD OF DAYS...THERE
MAY BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRUCTURES AND VEGETATION TO BE ADVERSELY
IMPACTED. LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY...
ESPECIALLY IF THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN
THAT ADDS ADDITIONAL STRESS TO WEAK TREE LIMBS. ANYBODY LIVING IN
THESE POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING LOCAL WIND EFFECTS
DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS...
INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHEAST-FACING
SLOPES OF THE EASTERN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER IS
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ISSUANCE OF AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ACROSS ALL BIG ISLAND SLOPES ABOVE 3000 FEET AND BELOW
7000 FEET. THIS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF ALONG
MOST NORTH AND SOME WEST FACING SHORES OF THE SMALLER HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM
NATIONAL DATA BUOY CENTER BUOY NUMBER 51101 LOCATED NORTHWEST OF
KAUAI INDICATES THE SWELL HEIGHT IS 11 TO 12 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF
AROUND 14 SECONDS. CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS...THE WAIMEA BUOY READINGS
WERE 8 TO 9 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 13 SECONDS. WEST FACING
SHORES OF OAHU AND MOLOKAI HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 6 AM
HST SUNDAY MORNING IF BUOY READINGS SHOW THE SWELL REMAINS ELEVATED
LATER TONIGHT. THIS NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL SHOULD START TO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO HIGH SURF ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE...THE ELEVATED
SWELL HAS INCREASED SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN COASTAL
WATERS TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ THRESHOLD THROUGH TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS FOR THE
WATERS SURROUNDING KAUAI...THE OAHU WINDWARD WATERS...THE KAIWI
CHANNEL AND THE MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.

WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE SCA CRITERIA THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AS SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEGIN TO
INCREASE...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE SCA CRITERIA ACROSS PARTS
OF THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS STARTING LATE MONDAY. STRONG SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE
WINDS...SEAS WILL ALSO BECOME ELEVATED AGAIN NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI...AND FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU...
MOLOKAI AND MAUI.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR THE WATERS
SURROUNDING KAUAI...THE OAHU WINDWARD WATERS...THE KAIWI CHANNEL AND
THE MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...POWELL







000
FXHW60 PHFO 310650
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A
FORMER FRONTAL SYSTEM LINGER OVER PARTS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT.
TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE ALOHA STATE LATER THIS
WEEKEND AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE TRADES WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. STARTING TUESDAY...THE CIRCULATION
AROUND A BROAD SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL BRING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND WET WEATHER TO THE
STATE. THESE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE TAIL END OF A WEAKENING NORTH NORTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. AS A RESULT...THERE ARE LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE STATE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHEASTERN BIG ISLAND. RADAR
REFLECTIVITY DATA APPEARS TO INDICATE THE FEW SHOWERS THAT ARE
FALLING ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE FORMER FRONT...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NOSING
INTO THE ISLANDS FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES IS KEEPING WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ABOVE THE STATE...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE AFTERNOON BALLOON SOUNDINGS FROM HILO AND
LIHUE INDICATE THE FLOW ALOFT IS NEARLY ZONAL. THE SOUNDINGS ALSO
SHOW RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. THEY ALSO SHOW A SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ISLANDS...WHICH WILL
BRING WEAK TRADES LATER THIS WEEKEND. RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL ALSO
BE OVER THE ISLANDS...AND THE TRADES WILL CARRY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY INTO WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS.

THE FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BRIEF PERIOD OF TRADES WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST BECOMES CHALLENGING
AFTER MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE
ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIFFER ON THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE PARENT SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT. HOWEVER...BOTH AGREE THAT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. BOTH MODELS ALSO INDICATE CLOUDY AND WET WEATHER WILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE GFS MODEL BRINGS
ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED FRONT ACROSS THE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL HAS LESS-DEFINED FEATURES MOVING NEAR
OR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. BOTH MODELS APPEAR TO SHOW THE WET WEATHER
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE GFS SHOWS AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE
AS THE BROAD SURFACE LOW SPINS FAR NORTH OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF
MODEL SHOWS SOMEWHAT WEAKER WESTERLY WINDS...SO WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE FUTURE CHANGES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT BEFORE WE CAN BE
CERTAIN THAT THEY HAVE CONVERGED ON A REALISTIC SOLUTION.

WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MODELS. HOWEVER... DURING TIME PERIODS
WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN
TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION. FURTHER REFINEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED
AS ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE EXAMINED.

FINALLY...ASSUMING THERE IS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS...
THIS WIND DIRECTION IS VERY UNUSUAL IN THE ISLANDS FOR MORE THAN A
DAY OR TWO. NOTE THAT WINDS FROM THE WEST MAY PRODUCE LOCAL
ACCELERATIONS AND STRONG GUSTS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING ON THE DOWNWIND
SIDES OF HIGHER TERRAIN...SUCH AS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE WAIANAE AND KOOLAU MOUNTAIN RANGES ON OAHU. SHOULD
THESE UNUSUALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS OCCUR OVER A PERIOD OF DAYS...THERE
MAY BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRUCTURES AND VEGETATION TO BE ADVERSELY
IMPACTED. LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY...
ESPECIALLY IF THE WINDS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN. ANYBODY
LIVING IN THESE POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR
FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE OR DAMAGING
LOCAL WIND EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
WE EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.
LINGERING INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WINDWARD
SLOPES AS LOW CLOUDS CLING TO THE MOUNTAINS AND EXTEND OFFSHORE TO
THE NORTHEAST. NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF ALONG
MOST NORTH AND SOME WEST FACING SHORES OF THE SMALLER HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM
NATIONAL DATA BUOY CENTER BUOY NUMBER 51101 LOCATED NORTHWEST OF
KAUAI INDICATES THE SWELL HEIGHT IS 12 TO 13 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF
12 TO 13 SECONDS. CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS...THE WAIMEA BUOY READINGS
WERE 8 TO 9 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 12 TO 13 SECONDS. A SLIGHTLY
LARGER REINFORCING NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH BUOY
51101 SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT HST SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LARGER SWELL
WILL REACH THE SMALLER HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SURF INTO THE WEEKEND. NOTE THAT IF THE
SWELL IS AS LARGE AS EXPECTED...WEST FACING SHORES OF OAHU AND
MOLOKAI MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY ON SATURDAY.
THIS NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY FADE BY LATE SUNDAY.

IN ADDITION TO HIGH SURF ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE...THE ELEVATED
SWELL HAS INCREASED SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN COASTAL
WATERS TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ THRESHOLD THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS HAS REQUIRED THE ISSUANCE OF A SCA FOR ELEVATED SEAS FOR
THE WATERS SURROUNDING KAUAI...THE OAHU WINDWARD WATERS...THE KAIWI
CHANNEL AND THE MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS. NOTE THAT WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI...AND FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU...
MOLOKAI AND MAUI.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR THE WATERS
SURROUNDING KAUAI...THE OAHU WINDWARD WATERS...THE KAIWI CHANNEL AND
THE MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...POWELL








000
FXHW60 PHFO 310650
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A
FORMER FRONTAL SYSTEM LINGER OVER PARTS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT.
TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE ALOHA STATE LATER THIS
WEEKEND AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE TRADES WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. STARTING TUESDAY...THE CIRCULATION
AROUND A BROAD SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL BRING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND WET WEATHER TO THE
STATE. THESE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE TAIL END OF A WEAKENING NORTH NORTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. AS A RESULT...THERE ARE LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE STATE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHEASTERN BIG ISLAND. RADAR
REFLECTIVITY DATA APPEARS TO INDICATE THE FEW SHOWERS THAT ARE
FALLING ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE FORMER FRONT...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NOSING
INTO THE ISLANDS FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES IS KEEPING WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ABOVE THE STATE...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE AFTERNOON BALLOON SOUNDINGS FROM HILO AND
LIHUE INDICATE THE FLOW ALOFT IS NEARLY ZONAL. THE SOUNDINGS ALSO
SHOW RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. THEY ALSO SHOW A SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ISLANDS...WHICH WILL
BRING WEAK TRADES LATER THIS WEEKEND. RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL ALSO
BE OVER THE ISLANDS...AND THE TRADES WILL CARRY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY INTO WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS.

THE FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BRIEF PERIOD OF TRADES WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST BECOMES CHALLENGING
AFTER MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE
ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIFFER ON THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE PARENT SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT. HOWEVER...BOTH AGREE THAT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. BOTH MODELS ALSO INDICATE CLOUDY AND WET WEATHER WILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE GFS MODEL BRINGS
ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED FRONT ACROSS THE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL HAS LESS-DEFINED FEATURES MOVING NEAR
OR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. BOTH MODELS APPEAR TO SHOW THE WET WEATHER
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE GFS SHOWS AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE
AS THE BROAD SURFACE LOW SPINS FAR NORTH OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF
MODEL SHOWS SOMEWHAT WEAKER WESTERLY WINDS...SO WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE FUTURE CHANGES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT BEFORE WE CAN BE
CERTAIN THAT THEY HAVE CONVERGED ON A REALISTIC SOLUTION.

WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MODELS. HOWEVER... DURING TIME PERIODS
WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN
TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION. FURTHER REFINEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED
AS ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE EXAMINED.

FINALLY...ASSUMING THERE IS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS...
THIS WIND DIRECTION IS VERY UNUSUAL IN THE ISLANDS FOR MORE THAN A
DAY OR TWO. NOTE THAT WINDS FROM THE WEST MAY PRODUCE LOCAL
ACCELERATIONS AND STRONG GUSTS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING ON THE DOWNWIND
SIDES OF HIGHER TERRAIN...SUCH AS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE WAIANAE AND KOOLAU MOUNTAIN RANGES ON OAHU. SHOULD
THESE UNUSUALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS OCCUR OVER A PERIOD OF DAYS...THERE
MAY BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRUCTURES AND VEGETATION TO BE ADVERSELY
IMPACTED. LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY...
ESPECIALLY IF THE WINDS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN. ANYBODY
LIVING IN THESE POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR
FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE OR DAMAGING
LOCAL WIND EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
WE EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.
LINGERING INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WINDWARD
SLOPES AS LOW CLOUDS CLING TO THE MOUNTAINS AND EXTEND OFFSHORE TO
THE NORTHEAST. NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF ALONG
MOST NORTH AND SOME WEST FACING SHORES OF THE SMALLER HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM
NATIONAL DATA BUOY CENTER BUOY NUMBER 51101 LOCATED NORTHWEST OF
KAUAI INDICATES THE SWELL HEIGHT IS 12 TO 13 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF
12 TO 13 SECONDS. CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS...THE WAIMEA BUOY READINGS
WERE 8 TO 9 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 12 TO 13 SECONDS. A SLIGHTLY
LARGER REINFORCING NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH BUOY
51101 SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT HST SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LARGER SWELL
WILL REACH THE SMALLER HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SURF INTO THE WEEKEND. NOTE THAT IF THE
SWELL IS AS LARGE AS EXPECTED...WEST FACING SHORES OF OAHU AND
MOLOKAI MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY ON SATURDAY.
THIS NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY FADE BY LATE SUNDAY.

IN ADDITION TO HIGH SURF ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE...THE ELEVATED
SWELL HAS INCREASED SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN COASTAL
WATERS TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ THRESHOLD THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS HAS REQUIRED THE ISSUANCE OF A SCA FOR ELEVATED SEAS FOR
THE WATERS SURROUNDING KAUAI...THE OAHU WINDWARD WATERS...THE KAIWI
CHANNEL AND THE MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS. NOTE THAT WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI...AND FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU...
MOLOKAI AND MAUI.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR THE WATERS
SURROUNDING KAUAI...THE OAHU WINDWARD WATERS...THE KAIWI CHANNEL AND
THE MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...POWELL







000
FXHW60 PHFO 310456 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE ISLANDS AS THE
REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. A RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
WILL BRING TRADES FOR THE WEEKEND...AND FOR THE START OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK. EXPECT SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE AREA WILL BRING WEST WINDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER STARTING
TUESDAY AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED
OVER THE ISLANDS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS...AND WILL BRING BACK SOME TRADES FOR THE WEEKEND. WHILE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS OVER THE ISLANDS NOW...THE MODELS DO SHOW AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AS THE REMAINS OF THE
FRONT CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND THE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

THE MORE INTERESTING FORECAST CHALLENGE COMES WITH THE NEW WORK
WEEK. BY TUESDAY...ANOTHER FRONT IS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE LOW...BOTH AGREE WITH WEST WINDS TAKING HOLD OF OUR WEATHER BY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND BOTH AGREE WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE GFS BRINGS
ANOTHER DEFINED FRONT TO THE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS A LESS DEFINED FEATURE PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE
GFS AGAIN BRINGS A MORE DEFINED FEATURE TO THE ISLANDS
FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS DEFINED...BUT DOES SPREAD SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ISLANDS.

WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...HAVE MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS...BUT NOTHING MAJOR. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODELS EXCEPT WHERE THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL AND THEN HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS.
FURTHER REFINEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS COME IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY IMPACT PHNY THIS AFTERNOON AND PHTO TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 31/18Z. NO AIRMETS ARE
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL REACHED THE WAIMEA BAY BUOY AROUND 2 PM
THIS AFTERNOON. ABOUT THE SAME TIME...BUOY 51101 SAW A SMALL
DECLINE. ANOTHER BUMP IN THE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES UNCHANGED THIS AFTERNOON.

THE INCREASING SWELL HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY /SCA/ FOR ELEVATED SEAS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI...AND FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU...
MOLOKAI AND MAUI.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR THE WATERS
SURROUNDING KAUAI...THE OAHU WINDWARD WATERS...THE KAIWI CHANNEL AND
THE MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...JELSEMA








000
FXHW60 PHFO 310456 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE ISLANDS AS THE
REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. A RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
WILL BRING TRADES FOR THE WEEKEND...AND FOR THE START OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK. EXPECT SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE AREA WILL BRING WEST WINDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER STARTING
TUESDAY AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED
OVER THE ISLANDS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS...AND WILL BRING BACK SOME TRADES FOR THE WEEKEND. WHILE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS OVER THE ISLANDS NOW...THE MODELS DO SHOW AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AS THE REMAINS OF THE
FRONT CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND THE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

THE MORE INTERESTING FORECAST CHALLENGE COMES WITH THE NEW WORK
WEEK. BY TUESDAY...ANOTHER FRONT IS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE LOW...BOTH AGREE WITH WEST WINDS TAKING HOLD OF OUR WEATHER BY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND BOTH AGREE WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE GFS BRINGS
ANOTHER DEFINED FRONT TO THE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS A LESS DEFINED FEATURE PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE
GFS AGAIN BRINGS A MORE DEFINED FEATURE TO THE ISLANDS
FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS DEFINED...BUT DOES SPREAD SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ISLANDS.

WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...HAVE MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS...BUT NOTHING MAJOR. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODELS EXCEPT WHERE THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL AND THEN HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS.
FURTHER REFINEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS COME IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY IMPACT PHNY THIS AFTERNOON AND PHTO TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 31/18Z. NO AIRMETS ARE
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL REACHED THE WAIMEA BAY BUOY AROUND 2 PM
THIS AFTERNOON. ABOUT THE SAME TIME...BUOY 51101 SAW A SMALL
DECLINE. ANOTHER BUMP IN THE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES UNCHANGED THIS AFTERNOON.

THE INCREASING SWELL HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY /SCA/ FOR ELEVATED SEAS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI...AND FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU...
MOLOKAI AND MAUI.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR THE WATERS
SURROUNDING KAUAI...THE OAHU WINDWARD WATERS...THE KAIWI CHANNEL AND
THE MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...JELSEMA







000
FXHW60 PHFO 310133
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE ISLANDS AS THE
REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. A RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
WILL BRING TRADES FOR THE WEEKEND...AND FOR THE START OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK. EXPECT SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE AREA WILL BRING WEST WINDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER STARTING
TUESDAY AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED
OVER THE ISLANDS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS...AND WILL BRING BACK SOME TRADES FOR THE WEEKEND. WHILE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS OVER THE ISLANDS NOW...THE MODELS DO SHOW AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AS THE REMAINS OF THE
FRONT CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND THE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

THE MORE INTERESTING FORECAST CHALLENGE COMES WITH THE NEW WORK
WEEK. BY TUESDAY...ANOTHER FRONT IS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE LOW...BOTH AGREE WITH WEST WINDS TAKING HOLD OF OUR WEATHER BY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND BOTH AGREE WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE GFS BRINGS
ANOTHER DEFINED FRONT TO THE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS A LESS DEFINED FEATURE PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE
GFS AGAIN BRINGS A MORE DEFINED FEATURE TO THE ISLANDS
FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS DEFINED...BUT DOES SPREAD SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ISLANDS.

WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...HAVE MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS...BUT NOTHING MAJOR. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODELS EXCEPT WHERE THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL AND THEN HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS.
FURTHER REFINEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS COME IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY IMPACT PHNY THIS AFTERNOON AND PHTO TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 31/18Z. NO AIRMETS ARE
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL REACHED THE WAIMEA BAY BUOY AROUND 2 PM
THIS AFTERNOON. ABOUT THE SAME TIME...BUOY 51101 SAW A SMALL
DECLINE. ANOTHER BUMP IN THE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES UNCHANGED THIS AFTERNOON.

THE INCREASING SWELL HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY /SCA/ FOR ELEVATED SEAS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU AND
KAUAI AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...JELSEMA






000
FXHW60 PHFO 301951
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING FRONT NEAR MAUI WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO THE BIG ISLAND LATER TODAY. A RIDGE BUILDING NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SCATTERED WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS. A
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING WEST WINDS
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND EXTENDING THROUGH
THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SHOWS THE A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST CLOUD BAND OVER MAUI
COUNTY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN. THIS FRONT HAS HAD LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT...AND SHOWERS REMAIN ISOLATED WITH THE
FEATURE. AS A RESULT...FORECAST POPS REMAIN LOW OVER THE ISLANDS
TODAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AS THE FRONT
DISSIPATES...AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS LIFTS
NORTH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE ISLANDS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL
BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS BACK TO THE ISLANDS BY
TOMORROW...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS.

HEADING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK...THE FORECAST BECOMES A LOT MORE
QUESTIONABLE. THE MODELS AGREE ON SEVERAL LOWS PASSING NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS...BRINGING FRONTAL SYSTEMS OVER THE ISLANDS AT DIFFERING
TIMES DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. SINCE THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES DIFFER BETWEEN THE MODELS...ITS DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME TO DISCERN WHEN EACH ONE WILL REACH THE ISLANDS. AS A GENERAL
RULE...THE CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS WESTERLY WINDS FROM TUESDAY
ON...WITH AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL.

THE GFS BRINGS IN STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT THAT ARE ALMOST TWICE THE SPEED OF ECMWF WINDS. THE FORECAST
REFLECTS MORE MODERATE WIND SPEEDS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE
WATCHING FURTHER RUNS CLOSELY. BOTH MODELS AGREE HOWEVER THAT WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS AT THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY IMPACT PHNY THIS AFTERNOON AND PHTO TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 31/18Z. NO AIRMETS ARE
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NEW NORTHWEST SWELL REACHED BUOY 51101 OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD
HAVE REACHED KAUAI AROUND SUNRISE...AND SHOULD BE REACHING OAHU
SHORTLY. ADDITIONAL NORTHERLY BUMPS IN THE SWELL ARE EXPECTED LATER
TODAY. THE SURF WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY OUT FOR THE NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF
NIIHAU AND KAUAI...AND FOR THE NORTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU...MOLOKAI
AND MAUI. AS THE ADDITIONAL SWELLS ARRIVE...IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO
EXPAND THE AREAS IMPACTED BY THE SURF.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE 25 KT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...SCA...LEVEL CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...BUT
COMBINED SEAS RISING OVER 10 FEET DUE TO THE NORTHWEST SWELLS MAY
REQUIRE A SCA BY SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU AND
KAUAI AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...JELSEMA







000
FXHW60 PHFO 301951
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING FRONT NEAR MAUI WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO THE BIG ISLAND LATER TODAY. A RIDGE BUILDING NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SCATTERED WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS. A
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING WEST WINDS
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND EXTENDING THROUGH
THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SHOWS THE A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST CLOUD BAND OVER MAUI
COUNTY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN. THIS FRONT HAS HAD LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT...AND SHOWERS REMAIN ISOLATED WITH THE
FEATURE. AS A RESULT...FORECAST POPS REMAIN LOW OVER THE ISLANDS
TODAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AS THE FRONT
DISSIPATES...AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS LIFTS
NORTH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE ISLANDS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL
BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS BACK TO THE ISLANDS BY
TOMORROW...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS.

HEADING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK...THE FORECAST BECOMES A LOT MORE
QUESTIONABLE. THE MODELS AGREE ON SEVERAL LOWS PASSING NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS...BRINGING FRONTAL SYSTEMS OVER THE ISLANDS AT DIFFERING
TIMES DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. SINCE THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES DIFFER BETWEEN THE MODELS...ITS DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME TO DISCERN WHEN EACH ONE WILL REACH THE ISLANDS. AS A GENERAL
RULE...THE CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS WESTERLY WINDS FROM TUESDAY
ON...WITH AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL.

THE GFS BRINGS IN STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT THAT ARE ALMOST TWICE THE SPEED OF ECMWF WINDS. THE FORECAST
REFLECTS MORE MODERATE WIND SPEEDS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE
WATCHING FURTHER RUNS CLOSELY. BOTH MODELS AGREE HOWEVER THAT WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS AT THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY IMPACT PHNY THIS AFTERNOON AND PHTO TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 31/18Z. NO AIRMETS ARE
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NEW NORTHWEST SWELL REACHED BUOY 51101 OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD
HAVE REACHED KAUAI AROUND SUNRISE...AND SHOULD BE REACHING OAHU
SHORTLY. ADDITIONAL NORTHERLY BUMPS IN THE SWELL ARE EXPECTED LATER
TODAY. THE SURF WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY OUT FOR THE NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF
NIIHAU AND KAUAI...AND FOR THE NORTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU...MOLOKAI
AND MAUI. AS THE ADDITIONAL SWELLS ARRIVE...IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO
EXPAND THE AREAS IMPACTED BY THE SURF.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE 25 KT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...SCA...LEVEL CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...BUT
COMBINED SEAS RISING OVER 10 FEET DUE TO THE NORTHWEST SWELLS MAY
REQUIRE A SCA BY SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU AND
KAUAI AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...JELSEMA








000
FXHW60 PHFO 301330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG A WEAKENING FRONT WILL AFFECT THE SMALLER
ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND SPREAD TO THE BIG ISLAND LATER TODAY. A
RIDGE BUILDING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE GENTLE TRADE WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED WINDWARD SHOWERS AND DRY WEATHER
OVER LEEWARD AREAS. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL BRING WEST WINDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER STARTING MONDAY NIGHT
AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING
FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS TODAY.
SHOWERS COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY THIS MORNING....BUT SINCE THE SHOWERS
WILL BE MOVING BY RATHER QUICKLY RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE MODEST. A
RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND PRODUCE GENTLE
TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TRADES WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS WHILE LEEWARD AREAS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY.

A HUGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL SAG SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH ON MONDAY...THEN
VEER OUT OF THE WEST ON TUESDAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH A
SERIES OF FRONTAL BANDS OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THESE
FRONTAL BAND WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ISLANDS RATHER CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
THROUGH THE WEEK. STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND THE WINDS COULD BECOME STRONG OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT
WITH THIS COMPLICATED PATTERN...SO DETAILS ON THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE FRONTAL BANDS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BAND WILL PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. AIRMET SIERRA MAY BE NEEDED FROM KAUAI TO
MAUI THIS MORNING AND MVFR CEILING COULD SPREAD TO THE BIG ISLAND
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEW NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL ARRIVE TODAY AND SATURDAY...PRODUCING
ELEVATED SURF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS WILL BE MORE
NORTHERLY THAN RECENT SWELLS AND WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT ON WEST
FACING SHORES. SURF WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE 25 KT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...SCA...LEVEL CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...BUT
COMBINED SEAS RISING OVER 10 FEET DUE TO THE NORTHWEST SWELLS MAY
REQUIRE A SCA BY SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU AND
KAUAI AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI.

&&

$$
DONALDSON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 300659
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER WILL BE QUITE CHANGEABLE THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. CLOUDY
SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG A PAIR OF FRONTS WILL AFFECT KAUAI
AND OAHU THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE OVER MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND FRIDAY. A RIDGE BUILDING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE
GENTLE TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED WINDWARD
SHOWERS AND DRY WEATHER OVER LEEWARD AREAS. A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING WEST WINDS AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING
FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SHOWERS TO KAUAI COUNTY AND
OAHU THURSDAY EVENING. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY OVER MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

A STRONGER FRONT...ABOUT 120 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI AT 800 PM...
WILL MERGE WITH THE OLD FRONT OVER KAUAI AND OAHU BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND PUSH DOWN TO THE BIG ISLANDS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT NO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND PRODUCE
GENTLE TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TRADES WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS WHILE LEEWARD AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY.

A HUGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL SAG SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH ON MONDAY...THEN
VEER OUT OF THE WEST ON TUESDAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH A
SERIES OF FRONTAL BANDS OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THESE
FRONTAL BAND WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ISLANDS RATHER CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT
WITH THIS COMPLICATED PATTERN...SO DETAILS ON THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE FRONTAL BANDS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BAND OVER KAUAI
AND OAHU AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BAND APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. AIRMET SIERRA MAY BE NEEDED
FOR KAUAI AND OAHU THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY FOR MAUI COUNTY
LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SURF WILL REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY LEVELS ON ALL SHORES OVERNIGHT.
REINFORCING NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
PRODUCING ELEVATED SURF THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG N FACING SHORES.
THESE SWELLS WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY THAN RECENT SWELLS AND WILL
HAVE LESS IMPACT ON WEST FACING SHORES. SURF WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE 25 KT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...SCA...LEVEL CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...BUT
COMBINED SEAS RISING OVER 10 FEET DUE TO THE NORTHWEST SWELLS MAY
REQUIRE A SCA BY SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
DONALDSON









000
FXHW60 PHFO 300659
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER WILL BE QUITE CHANGEABLE THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. CLOUDY
SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG A PAIR OF FRONTS WILL AFFECT KAUAI
AND OAHU THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE OVER MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND FRIDAY. A RIDGE BUILDING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE
GENTLE TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED WINDWARD
SHOWERS AND DRY WEATHER OVER LEEWARD AREAS. A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING WEST WINDS AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING
FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SHOWERS TO KAUAI COUNTY AND
OAHU THURSDAY EVENING. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY OVER MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

A STRONGER FRONT...ABOUT 120 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI AT 800 PM...
WILL MERGE WITH THE OLD FRONT OVER KAUAI AND OAHU BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND PUSH DOWN TO THE BIG ISLANDS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT NO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND PRODUCE
GENTLE TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TRADES WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS WHILE LEEWARD AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY.

A HUGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL SAG SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH ON MONDAY...THEN
VEER OUT OF THE WEST ON TUESDAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH A
SERIES OF FRONTAL BANDS OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THESE
FRONTAL BAND WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ISLANDS RATHER CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT
WITH THIS COMPLICATED PATTERN...SO DETAILS ON THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE FRONTAL BANDS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BAND OVER KAUAI
AND OAHU AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BAND APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. AIRMET SIERRA MAY BE NEEDED
FOR KAUAI AND OAHU THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY FOR MAUI COUNTY
LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SURF WILL REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY LEVELS ON ALL SHORES OVERNIGHT.
REINFORCING NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
PRODUCING ELEVATED SURF THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG N FACING SHORES.
THESE SWELLS WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY THAN RECENT SWELLS AND WILL
HAVE LESS IMPACT ON WEST FACING SHORES. SURF WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE 25 KT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...SCA...LEVEL CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...BUT
COMBINED SEAS RISING OVER 10 FEET DUE TO THE NORTHWEST SWELLS MAY
REQUIRE A SCA BY SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
DONALDSON










000
FXHW60 PHFO 300135
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
335 PM HST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER
OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND... A
BRIEF RETURN OF LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL FOCUS PASSING SHOWERS OVER
WINDWARD SLOPES... WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND CLOUDS OVER
LEEWARD AREAS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH MONDAY AND THEN WEST THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH INCREASING SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A DIFFUSE FRONT NEAR THE ISLANDS IS BRINGING BANDS OF LOW OVERCAST
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON TO OAHU AND KAUAI. TONIGHT... SOME FRONTAL
MOISTURE WILL REACH MAUI COUNTY BRINGING AN INCREASE TO CLOUDS AND
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD SLOPES... WHILE PASSING SHOWERS AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN OVER OAHU AND KAUAI. THE BIG ISLAND
WILL SEE PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT AS LAND BREEZES PUSH CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE OFFSHORE.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WIND DIRECTION
WILL SPIN AROUND THE COMPASS AS THE GENERAL FLOW SHIFTS FROM SW
TODAY... WEST OVERNIGHT... NORTH FRIDAY... NE SATURDAY... EAST
SUNDAY... AND FINALLY BACK TO SOUTH MONDAY. THE WEAK FRONT NEAR
THE ISLANDS TODAY WILL PULL NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK RIDGE
FILLING IN NORTH OF THE ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE FROM
THE FRONT WILL LINGER OVER WINDWARD AREAS BRINGING PASSING CLOUDS
AND LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR LEEWARD AREAS
OVER THE WEEKEND... AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY
WITH THE SEA BREEZES OVERPOWERING THE LIGHT TRADES. NIGHTTIME
SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH COOLER LATE NIGHT TEMPERATURES DUE TO
RADIATIONAL HEATING.

A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL TURN ISLAND WINDS OUT
OF THE SOUTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHILE PUSHING THE SURFACE
RIDGE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE WITH THE
ISLAND TOPOGRAPHY FOCUSING RAINFALL OVER THE LEEWARD SLOPES.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WINDS SHIFT FROM THE WEST WITH WEST FACING
SLOPES CATCHING THE MAJORITY OF RAINFALL AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
FALLING ELSEWHERE. THESE WEST WINDS WILL USHER THE INITIAL FRONT
OVER THE ISLANDS TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER EXPECTED THURSDAY. THE
FRONTS WILL BE A FOCUS OF RAINFALL AS THEY MOVE OVER THE STATE.
WINDS OVER THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AROUND THIS TIME. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE FRONTS...THUS THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WILL
POTENTIALLY BE SUBJECT TO LARGE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MAUI COUNTY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...PREDOMINANTLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD.

AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC OVER OAHU. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY 0400Z...AND THE AIRMET WILL LIKELY BE
CANCELLED AT THAT TIME.

MTN OBSC HAS ENDED OVER KAUAI...SO THE AIRMET HAS BEEN CANCELLED
HERE.

ADDITIONAL AIRMETS FOR MTN OBSC MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT FOR MAUI
COUNTY.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER... REINFORCING SWELLS FROM THE NW AND NNW WILL ARRIVE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RESPECTIVELY...CONTINUING ELEVATED SURF
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG N FACING SHORES...AND LESS SO ALONG W
FACING SHORES...ESPECIALLY AS THE SWELL TURNS TOWARD THE N
SATURDAY. SURF WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
OAHU SURF DISCUSSION /SRDHFO/ WAS UPDATED WEDNESDAY AND CONTAINS
DETAILED INSIGHT ON THE SOURCE OF THE SWELLS.

WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/
CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...COMBINED SEAS MAY TOP OUT
NEAR 10 FEET SATURDAY IN MARINE ZONES EXPOSED TO THE NNW SWELL.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
JELSEMA...AVIATION








000
FXHW60 PHFO 300135
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
335 PM HST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER
OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND... A
BRIEF RETURN OF LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL FOCUS PASSING SHOWERS OVER
WINDWARD SLOPES... WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND CLOUDS OVER
LEEWARD AREAS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH MONDAY AND THEN WEST THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH INCREASING SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A DIFFUSE FRONT NEAR THE ISLANDS IS BRINGING BANDS OF LOW OVERCAST
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON TO OAHU AND KAUAI. TONIGHT... SOME FRONTAL
MOISTURE WILL REACH MAUI COUNTY BRINGING AN INCREASE TO CLOUDS AND
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD SLOPES... WHILE PASSING SHOWERS AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN OVER OAHU AND KAUAI. THE BIG ISLAND
WILL SEE PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT AS LAND BREEZES PUSH CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE OFFSHORE.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WIND DIRECTION
WILL SPIN AROUND THE COMPASS AS THE GENERAL FLOW SHIFTS FROM SW
TODAY... WEST OVERNIGHT... NORTH FRIDAY... NE SATURDAY... EAST
SUNDAY... AND FINALLY BACK TO SOUTH MONDAY. THE WEAK FRONT NEAR
THE ISLANDS TODAY WILL PULL NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK RIDGE
FILLING IN NORTH OF THE ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE FROM
THE FRONT WILL LINGER OVER WINDWARD AREAS BRINGING PASSING CLOUDS
AND LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR LEEWARD AREAS
OVER THE WEEKEND... AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY
WITH THE SEA BREEZES OVERPOWERING THE LIGHT TRADES. NIGHTTIME
SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH COOLER LATE NIGHT TEMPERATURES DUE TO
RADIATIONAL HEATING.

A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL TURN ISLAND WINDS OUT
OF THE SOUTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHILE PUSHING THE SURFACE
RIDGE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE WITH THE
ISLAND TOPOGRAPHY FOCUSING RAINFALL OVER THE LEEWARD SLOPES.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WINDS SHIFT FROM THE WEST WITH WEST FACING
SLOPES CATCHING THE MAJORITY OF RAINFALL AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
FALLING ELSEWHERE. THESE WEST WINDS WILL USHER THE INITIAL FRONT
OVER THE ISLANDS TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER EXPECTED THURSDAY. THE
FRONTS WILL BE A FOCUS OF RAINFALL AS THEY MOVE OVER THE STATE.
WINDS OVER THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AROUND THIS TIME. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE FRONTS...THUS THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WILL
POTENTIALLY BE SUBJECT TO LARGE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MAUI COUNTY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...PREDOMINANTLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD.

AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC OVER OAHU. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY 0400Z...AND THE AIRMET WILL LIKELY BE
CANCELLED AT THAT TIME.

MTN OBSC HAS ENDED OVER KAUAI...SO THE AIRMET HAS BEEN CANCELLED
HERE.

ADDITIONAL AIRMETS FOR MTN OBSC MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT FOR MAUI
COUNTY.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER... REINFORCING SWELLS FROM THE NW AND NNW WILL ARRIVE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RESPECTIVELY...CONTINUING ELEVATED SURF
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG N FACING SHORES...AND LESS SO ALONG W
FACING SHORES...ESPECIALLY AS THE SWELL TURNS TOWARD THE N
SATURDAY. SURF WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
OAHU SURF DISCUSSION /SRDHFO/ WAS UPDATED WEDNESDAY AND CONTAINS
DETAILED INSIGHT ON THE SOURCE OF THE SWELLS.

WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/
CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...COMBINED SEAS MAY TOP OUT
NEAR 10 FEET SATURDAY IN MARINE ZONES EXPOSED TO THE NNW SWELL.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
JELSEMA...AVIATION







000
FXHW60 PHFO 292007
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1007 AM HST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OVER
KAUAI AND OAHU TODAY...AND GRADUALLY SPREAD TO MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND A
BRIEF RETURN OF LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL FOCUS PASSING SHOWERS OVER
WINDWARD SLOPES... WITH AFTERNOON CLOUDS OVER LEEWARD AREAS.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH MONDAY AND THEN WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE ISLANDS IS BRINGING A BANDS OF
LOW OVERCAST CLOUDS TO THE AREA. THIS MORNING... OAHU IS CURRENTLY
UNDER ONE OF THESE CLOUD BANDS WITH CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE ISLAND FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER
OAHU THIS AFTERNOON. KAUAI IS IN A DRY SLOT BETWEEN CLOUD BANDS
BUT LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE GARDEN ISLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. ISLANDS FROM MAUI TO THE BIG
ISLAND HAVE RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF MAUI AND COUNTY
AND THE BIG ISLAND AS DAYTIME HEATING PROGRESSES. TONIGHT... SOME
FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL REACH MAUI COUNTY BRINGING AN INCREASE TO
CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD SLOPES.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WIND DIRECTION
WILL SPIN AROUND THE COMPASS AS THE GENERAL FLOW SHIFTS FROM SW
TODAY... WEST OVERNIGHT... NORTH FRIDAY... NE SATURDAY... EAST
SUNDAY... AND FINALLY BACK TO SOUTH MONDAY. THE WEAK FRONT NEAR
THE ISLANDS TODAY WILL PULL NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK RIDGE
FILLING IN NORTH OF THE ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE FROM
THE FRONT WILL LINGER OVER WINDWARD AREAS BRINGING PASSING CLOUDS
AND LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR LEEWARD AREAS
OVER THE WEEKEND... AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY
WITH THE SEA BREEZES OVERPOWERING THE LIGHT TRADES. NIGHTTIME
SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH COOLER LATE NIGHT TEMPERATURES DUE TO
RADIATIONAL HEATING.

A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL TURN ISLAND WINDS OUT
OF THE SOUTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHILE PUSHING THE SURFACE
RIDGE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE WITH THE
ISLAND TOPOGRAPHY FOCUSING RAINFALL OVER THE LEEWARD SLOPES.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WINDS SHIFT FROM THE WEST WITH WEST FACING
SLOPES CATCHING THE MAJORITY OF RAINFALL AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
FALLING ELSEWHERE. THESE WEST WINDS WILL USHER THE INITIAL FRONT
OVER THE ISLANDS TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER EXPECTED THURSDAY. THE
FRONTS WILL BE A FOCUS OF RAINFALL AS THEY MOVE OVER THE STATE.
WINDS OVER THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AROUND THIS TIME. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE FRONTS...THUS THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WILL
POTENTIALLY BE SUBJECT TO LARGE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONT JUST NW OF KAUAI...WILL MOVE THROUGH KAUAI THIS
AFTERNOON...PASS OVER OAHU THIS EVENING AND MOVE INTO MAUI COUNTY
OVERNIGHT. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND -SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

AIRMET SIERRA IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC OVER OAHU. WE MAY
BE ABLE TO DROP THE AIRMET FOR AWHILE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MTN OBSC
MAY BECOME A PROBLEM AGAIN THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
AIRMETS FOR MTN OBSC MAY BE ALSO BE NEEDED FOR KAUAI THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER... REINFORCING SWELLS FROM THE NW AND NNW WILL ARRIVE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RESPECTIVELY...LEADING TO ELEVATED SURF ALONG
N FACING SHORES...AND LESS SO ALONG W FACING SHORES...ESPECIALLY
AS THE SWELL TURNS TOWARD THE N SATURDAY. BOTH SWELLS WILL
PRODUCE SURF NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS...WITH SURF REMAINING ELEVATED
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE OAHU SURF DISCUSSION /SRDHFO/ WAS UPDATED WEDNESDAY AND
CONTAINS DETAILED INSIGHT ON THE SOURCE OF THE SWELLS.

WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/
CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...COMBINED SEAS MAY TOP OUT
NEAR 10 FEET SATURDAY IN MARINE ZONES EXPOSED TO THE NNW SWELL.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
JELSEMA...AVIATION







000
FXHW60 PHFO 291330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OVER
KAUAI AND OAHU TODAY...AND GRADUALLY SPREAD TO MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND A
BRIEF RETURN OF LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL FOCUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER
WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS. TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND PREVAILING WESTERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER
FRONTS AROUND TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IN SUMMARY...WINDS OVER THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE LARGE-SCALE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DYNAMIC...CHANGING SLIGHTLY FROM DAY TO DAY. WHILE HEAVY
RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE ISLAND ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED AT 6 TO 8 THOUSAND FEET...A COUPLE OF
WEAK FRONTAL CLOUD BANDS MOVING OVER THE ISLANDS WILL BRING AREAS OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. THIS RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN LIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS INCREASES NEXT
WEEK AS WESTERLY WINDS CARRY WHAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT
STRONGER FRONTS OVER THE ISLANDS.

CURRENTLY...WHAT HAD BEEN A PAIR OF SLOW-MOVING NE-SW ORIENTED CLOUD
BANDS JUST NW OF KAUAI WEDNESDAY EVENING IS NOW A SOLID MASS OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST STABLE AND SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS THAT EXTEND FOR
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NW OF KAUAI. GRAVITY WAVES PROPAGATING THROUGH
THIS CLOUD FIELD HAVE MADE THE IDENTIFICATION OF A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR IMPOSSIBLE. THE ISLANDS LIE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A LARGE GYRE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT FILLS THE N PACIFIC BETWEEN
HAWAII AND ALASKA. THE PRESENCE OF THIS GYRE HAS LED TO A SOUTHWARD
SUPPRESSION OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NE...WITH THE RIDGE NOW ANALYZED NEAR THE BIG ISLAND. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN WEAK S TO SW FLOW OVER ISLANDS NW OF THE BIG ISLAND...
WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVING OVER KAUAI AND OAHU IN WEAKLY
CONVERGENT SW FLOW.

WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND...CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER OVER MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO A FEW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SLOPES THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR KAUAI AND OAHU...WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS...WITH
RADAR CURRENTLY DETECTING SMALL SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD AND OVER KAUAI
AND OAHU FROM THE SW.

AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ROTATE AROUND IN THE GYRE TO THE N...WEAK
FRONTS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE NW.
THE FIRST WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE FRONTAL CLOUD BAND IS
CURRENTLY LEADING TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS NEAR KAUAI
AND OAHU...AND THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO MAUI COUNTY
THROUGH TONIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL IMPULSE PASSES JUST N OF
KAUAI. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FAVORING A WESTERLY DIRECTION...
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE NORMALLY DRIER LEEWARD SIDES OF THE ISLANDS.
ALSO VOG IS EXPECTED TO MUDDLE SKIES FROM OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND
TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING ON FRIDAY...WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW AND
N.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLING WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CHAIN ON FRIDAY...AS WEAK
CONVERGENCE SE OF THE FRONT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE BIG ISLAND. THE SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE DUE
TO A WEAK RIDGE PASSING N OF THE AREA...WITH THIS RIDGE SUPPORTING
LIGHT TRADE WINDS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH TRADE WINDS
BLOWING...THE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL FUEL CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS
OVER WINDWARD AREAS. THIS RETURN TO A WEAK TRADE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
AS THE LARGE GYRE SHIFTS NORTHWARD.

AS A NEW LARGE SCALE GYRE DEVELOPS NW OF THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE S/SE AGAIN AS A SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE ISLANDS. ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL
SLIDE FAR S OF THE ISLANDS...LEADING TO PREVAILING WESTERLY WINDS
FOR MOST OF THE CHAIN. THESE WEST WINDS WILL USHER A COUPLE OF
FRONTS OVER THE ISLANDS...AS THE PARENT LOWS PASS N OF THE ISLANDS.
ONE FRONT IS SLATED TO ARRIVE AROUND TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER BY
THURSDAY...WITH THESE BOUNDARIES EXPECTED TO CONTAIN A LITTLE
GREATER MOISTURE DEPTH AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT. WINDS OVER THE BIG
ISLAND SUMMITS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE AROUND THIS TIME. WORTH
NOTING THAT GLOBAL MODELS STILL DIFFER AS TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF THESE FRONTS...THUS THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WILL POTENTIALLY BE
SUBJECT TO LARGE CHANGES. THE CURRENT LONG RANGE FORECAST REPRESENTS
A BLEND OF RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONT NW OF KAUAI WILL PUSH TOWARD THE WESTERN ISLANDS TODAY.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A CONVERGENCE BAND IS BRINGING SHOWERS AND
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO OAHU AND PARTS OF KAUAI AND MOLOKAI. RADAR
SHOWS SOME QUICK NORTHEASTERLY MOVING SHOWERS...WITH CLOUD TOPS
BETWEEN 8 AND 13 KFT OVER WESTERN OAHU AND THE KAUAI CHANNEL. THE
SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VIS. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN SLOPES OF THE WAIANAE RANGE IN OAHU...IF SHOWERS AND
LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN. THE APPROACHING FRONT IS FAIRLY
SHALLOW AND WEAK...AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL
MVFR CIGS AND VIS WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.

THE OTHER ISLANDS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THIS MORNING AND EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT...BASED
ON GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS AT BUOY 51101 NW OF KAUAI. RECENTLY
OBSERVED SWELL HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET AT THE WAIMEA BUOY SUPPORT THE
CANCELLATION OF THE CURRENT HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR EXPOSED N AND W
SHORES. HOWEVER...REINFORCING SWELLS FROM THE NW AND NNW WILL ARRIVE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RESPECTIVELY...LEADING TO ELEVATED SURF ALONG N
FACING SHORES...AND LESS SO ALONG W FACING SHORES...ESPECIALLY AS
THE SWELL TURNS TOWARD THE N ON SATURDAY. BOTH SWELLS WILL PRODUCE
SURF NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS...WITH SURF REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE OAHU
SURF DISCUSSION /SRDHFO/ WAS UPDATED WEDNESDAY AND CONTAINS DETAILED
INSIGHT ON THE SOURCE OF THE SWELLS.

WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/
CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...COMBINED SEAS MAY TOP OUT
NEAR 10 FEET ON SATURDAY IN MARINE ZONES EXPOSED TO THE NNW SWELL.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 291330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OVER
KAUAI AND OAHU TODAY...AND GRADUALLY SPREAD TO MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND A
BRIEF RETURN OF LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL FOCUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER
WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS. TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND PREVAILING WESTERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER
FRONTS AROUND TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IN SUMMARY...WINDS OVER THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE LARGE-SCALE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DYNAMIC...CHANGING SLIGHTLY FROM DAY TO DAY. WHILE HEAVY
RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE ISLAND ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED AT 6 TO 8 THOUSAND FEET...A COUPLE OF
WEAK FRONTAL CLOUD BANDS MOVING OVER THE ISLANDS WILL BRING AREAS OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. THIS RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN LIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS INCREASES NEXT
WEEK AS WESTERLY WINDS CARRY WHAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT
STRONGER FRONTS OVER THE ISLANDS.

CURRENTLY...WHAT HAD BEEN A PAIR OF SLOW-MOVING NE-SW ORIENTED CLOUD
BANDS JUST NW OF KAUAI WEDNESDAY EVENING IS NOW A SOLID MASS OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST STABLE AND SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS THAT EXTEND FOR
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NW OF KAUAI. GRAVITY WAVES PROPAGATING THROUGH
THIS CLOUD FIELD HAVE MADE THE IDENTIFICATION OF A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR IMPOSSIBLE. THE ISLANDS LIE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A LARGE GYRE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT FILLS THE N PACIFIC BETWEEN
HAWAII AND ALASKA. THE PRESENCE OF THIS GYRE HAS LED TO A SOUTHWARD
SUPPRESSION OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NE...WITH THE RIDGE NOW ANALYZED NEAR THE BIG ISLAND. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN WEAK S TO SW FLOW OVER ISLANDS NW OF THE BIG ISLAND...
WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVING OVER KAUAI AND OAHU IN WEAKLY
CONVERGENT SW FLOW.

WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND...CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER OVER MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO A FEW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SLOPES THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR KAUAI AND OAHU...WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS...WITH
RADAR CURRENTLY DETECTING SMALL SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD AND OVER KAUAI
AND OAHU FROM THE SW.

AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ROTATE AROUND IN THE GYRE TO THE N...WEAK
FRONTS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE NW.
THE FIRST WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE FRONTAL CLOUD BAND IS
CURRENTLY LEADING TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS NEAR KAUAI
AND OAHU...AND THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO MAUI COUNTY
THROUGH TONIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL IMPULSE PASSES JUST N OF
KAUAI. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FAVORING A WESTERLY DIRECTION...
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE NORMALLY DRIER LEEWARD SIDES OF THE ISLANDS.
ALSO VOG IS EXPECTED TO MUDDLE SKIES FROM OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND
TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING ON FRIDAY...WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW AND
N.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLING WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CHAIN ON FRIDAY...AS WEAK
CONVERGENCE SE OF THE FRONT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE BIG ISLAND. THE SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE DUE
TO A WEAK RIDGE PASSING N OF THE AREA...WITH THIS RIDGE SUPPORTING
LIGHT TRADE WINDS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH TRADE WINDS
BLOWING...THE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL FUEL CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS
OVER WINDWARD AREAS. THIS RETURN TO A WEAK TRADE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
AS THE LARGE GYRE SHIFTS NORTHWARD.

AS A NEW LARGE SCALE GYRE DEVELOPS NW OF THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE S/SE AGAIN AS A SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE ISLANDS. ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL
SLIDE FAR S OF THE ISLANDS...LEADING TO PREVAILING WESTERLY WINDS
FOR MOST OF THE CHAIN. THESE WEST WINDS WILL USHER A COUPLE OF
FRONTS OVER THE ISLANDS...AS THE PARENT LOWS PASS N OF THE ISLANDS.
ONE FRONT IS SLATED TO ARRIVE AROUND TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER BY
THURSDAY...WITH THESE BOUNDARIES EXPECTED TO CONTAIN A LITTLE
GREATER MOISTURE DEPTH AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT. WINDS OVER THE BIG
ISLAND SUMMITS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE AROUND THIS TIME. WORTH
NOTING THAT GLOBAL MODELS STILL DIFFER AS TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF THESE FRONTS...THUS THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WILL POTENTIALLY BE
SUBJECT TO LARGE CHANGES. THE CURRENT LONG RANGE FORECAST REPRESENTS
A BLEND OF RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONT NW OF KAUAI WILL PUSH TOWARD THE WESTERN ISLANDS TODAY.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A CONVERGENCE BAND IS BRINGING SHOWERS AND
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO OAHU AND PARTS OF KAUAI AND MOLOKAI. RADAR
SHOWS SOME QUICK NORTHEASTERLY MOVING SHOWERS...WITH CLOUD TOPS
BETWEEN 8 AND 13 KFT OVER WESTERN OAHU AND THE KAUAI CHANNEL. THE
SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VIS. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN SLOPES OF THE WAIANAE RANGE IN OAHU...IF SHOWERS AND
LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN. THE APPROACHING FRONT IS FAIRLY
SHALLOW AND WEAK...AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL
MVFR CIGS AND VIS WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.

THE OTHER ISLANDS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THIS MORNING AND EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT...BASED
ON GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS AT BUOY 51101 NW OF KAUAI. RECENTLY
OBSERVED SWELL HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET AT THE WAIMEA BUOY SUPPORT THE
CANCELLATION OF THE CURRENT HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR EXPOSED N AND W
SHORES. HOWEVER...REINFORCING SWELLS FROM THE NW AND NNW WILL ARRIVE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RESPECTIVELY...LEADING TO ELEVATED SURF ALONG N
FACING SHORES...AND LESS SO ALONG W FACING SHORES...ESPECIALLY AS
THE SWELL TURNS TOWARD THE N ON SATURDAY. BOTH SWELLS WILL PRODUCE
SURF NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS...WITH SURF REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE OAHU
SURF DISCUSSION /SRDHFO/ WAS UPDATED WEDNESDAY AND CONTAINS DETAILED
INSIGHT ON THE SOURCE OF THE SWELLS.

WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/
CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...COMBINED SEAS MAY TOP OUT
NEAR 10 FEET ON SATURDAY IN MARINE ZONES EXPOSED TO THE NNW SWELL.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 290645
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
845 PM HST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OVER KAUAI
ON THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY SPREAD TO OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND WILL FOCUS LINGERING MOISTURE OVER WINDWARD SLOPES
AND COASTS. TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
PREVAILING WESTERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTS
AROUND TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH WINDS OVER THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE LARGE-SCALE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DYNAMIC...CHANGING SLIGHTLY FROM DAY TO DAY. WHILE HEAVY RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED AS THE ISLAND ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED BELOW
8 THOUSAND FEET...A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL CLOUD BANDS MOVING OVER
THE ISLANDS WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK...AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER STAGNANT.

CURRENTLY...A PAIR OF NE-SW ORIENTED CLOUD BANDS ARE LURKING JUST NW
OF KAUAI...AND LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS LEADS TO CONFLICTING RESULTS
AS TO WHICH BAND MARKS A COLD FRONT. ONE RATHER DIFFUSE BAND IS
ABOUT 120 MILES NW OF KAUAI...WHILE A SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED BAND
LIES ABOUT 220 MILES NW OF KAUAI. THE ISLANDS LIE ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A LARGE GYRE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT FILLS THE NORTH
PACIFIC BETWEEN HAWAII AND ALASKA. THE PRESENCE OF THIS GYRE HAS LED
TO A SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSION OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NE...WITH THE RIDGE NOW ANALYZED NEAR MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WEAK S TO SE FLOW OVER THE ISLANDS...
AND FINAL VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY REVEALED VOG POOLED OVER LEEWARD
BIG ISLAND...MAUI AND ADJACENT WATERS...AND WATERS S OF OAHU. WITH
THE SURFACE RIDGE NEAR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...CLEARING SKIES AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FOR KAUAI AND OAHU...
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...WITH RADAR DETECTING A SHOWER BAND
LURKING OVER WATERS SW OF OAHU THAT IS DRIFTING NE. ANY OVERNIGHT
FORECAST UPDATES WOULD ONLY BE TO FINE-TUNE THE DETAILS.

AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ROTATE AROUND IN THE GYRE TO THE N...WEAK
FRONTS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE NW.
THE FIRST WEAK FRONTAL CLOUD BAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER KAUAI BY
THURSDAY MORNING...AND SPREAD TO OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK BAND PASSES JUST N OF KAUAI. WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FAVORING A WESTERLY DIRECTION...SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
THE NORMALLY DRIER LEEWARD SIDES OF THE ISLANDS. IN THIS REGIME...IT
IS LIKELY THAT VOG WILL CLUTTER SKIES FROM OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING ON FRIDAY...WHEN WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHERLY.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLING WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CHAIN ON FRIDAY...AS WEAK
CONVERGENCE SE OF THE FRONT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE BIG ISLAND. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE DUE TO A WEAK
RIDGE PASSING N OF THE AREA...WITH THIS RIDGE SUPPORTING LIGHT TRADE
WINDS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEREBY DELIVERING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS PRIMARILY TO WINDWARD AREAS. THIS RETURN TO A WEAK TRADE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE LARGE GYRE SHIFTS EASTWARD.

AS A NEW LARGE SCALE GYRE DEVELOPS NW OF THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE S/SE MONDAY/TUESDAY. ON
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SE AND THEN FAR S OF THE
ISLANDS...LEADING TO PREVAILING WESTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE
CHAIN. THESE WEST WINDS WILL USHER A COUPLE OF FRONTS OVER THE
ISLANDS...AS THE PARENT LOWS PASS N OF THE ISLANDS. ONE FRONT IS
SLATED TO ARRIVE AROUND TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER BY THURSDAY...WITH
THESE BOUNDARIES EXPECTED TO CONTAIN A LITTLE GREATER MOISTURE
DEPTH AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT. WORTH NOTING THAT GLOBAL MODELS STILL
DIFFER AS TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE FRONTS...THUS THE
LONGER RANGE FORECAST WILL BE SUBJECT TO POTENTIALLY LARGE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY FROM
THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES.
CLOUD BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER
KAUAI AND OAHU TONIGHT...USHERING IN SOME CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER..CLOUD BASES AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINATELY
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE NW SWELL IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING LOW-END ADVISORY LEVEL
SURF ALONG EXPOSED N AND W FACING SHORES OF THE ISLANDS. THIS SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND IS EXPECTED TO
BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON THURSDAY. WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT
BUOY OBSERVATIONS TO SEE IF AN EXTENSION IN TIME IS WARRANTED.

REINFORCING SWELLS FROM THE NW AND NNW WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...MAINTAINING ELEVATED SURF ALONG N FACING SHORES...AND
LESS SO ALONG W FACING SHORES...ESPECIALLY AS THE SWELL VEERS TOWARD
THE N ON SATURDAY. BOTH SWELLS WILL PRODUCE SURF NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS...WITH SURF REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE OAHU SURF DISCUSSION
/SRDHFO/ WAS UPDATED EARLIER TODAY AND CONTAINS DETAILED INSIGHT ON
THE SOURCE OF THE SWELLS.

WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/
CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...COMBINED SEAS MAY TOP OUT
NEAR 10 FEET ON SATURDAY IN MARINE ZONES EXPOSED TO BUILDING NNW
SWELL.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI AND OAHU...AND FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES OF MOLOKAI AND MAUI.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 290645
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
845 PM HST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OVER KAUAI
ON THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY SPREAD TO OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND WILL FOCUS LINGERING MOISTURE OVER WINDWARD SLOPES
AND COASTS. TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
PREVAILING WESTERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTS
AROUND TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH WINDS OVER THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE LARGE-SCALE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DYNAMIC...CHANGING SLIGHTLY FROM DAY TO DAY. WHILE HEAVY RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED AS THE ISLAND ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED BELOW
8 THOUSAND FEET...A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL CLOUD BANDS MOVING OVER
THE ISLANDS WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK...AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER STAGNANT.

CURRENTLY...A PAIR OF NE-SW ORIENTED CLOUD BANDS ARE LURKING JUST NW
OF KAUAI...AND LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS LEADS TO CONFLICTING RESULTS
AS TO WHICH BAND MARKS A COLD FRONT. ONE RATHER DIFFUSE BAND IS
ABOUT 120 MILES NW OF KAUAI...WHILE A SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED BAND
LIES ABOUT 220 MILES NW OF KAUAI. THE ISLANDS LIE ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A LARGE GYRE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT FILLS THE NORTH
PACIFIC BETWEEN HAWAII AND ALASKA. THE PRESENCE OF THIS GYRE HAS LED
TO A SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSION OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NE...WITH THE RIDGE NOW ANALYZED NEAR MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WEAK S TO SE FLOW OVER THE ISLANDS...
AND FINAL VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY REVEALED VOG POOLED OVER LEEWARD
BIG ISLAND...MAUI AND ADJACENT WATERS...AND WATERS S OF OAHU. WITH
THE SURFACE RIDGE NEAR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...CLEARING SKIES AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FOR KAUAI AND OAHU...
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...WITH RADAR DETECTING A SHOWER BAND
LURKING OVER WATERS SW OF OAHU THAT IS DRIFTING NE. ANY OVERNIGHT
FORECAST UPDATES WOULD ONLY BE TO FINE-TUNE THE DETAILS.

AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ROTATE AROUND IN THE GYRE TO THE N...WEAK
FRONTS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE NW.
THE FIRST WEAK FRONTAL CLOUD BAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER KAUAI BY
THURSDAY MORNING...AND SPREAD TO OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK BAND PASSES JUST N OF KAUAI. WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FAVORING A WESTERLY DIRECTION...SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
THE NORMALLY DRIER LEEWARD SIDES OF THE ISLANDS. IN THIS REGIME...IT
IS LIKELY THAT VOG WILL CLUTTER SKIES FROM OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING ON FRIDAY...WHEN WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHERLY.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLING WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CHAIN ON FRIDAY...AS WEAK
CONVERGENCE SE OF THE FRONT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE BIG ISLAND. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE DUE TO A WEAK
RIDGE PASSING N OF THE AREA...WITH THIS RIDGE SUPPORTING LIGHT TRADE
WINDS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEREBY DELIVERING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS PRIMARILY TO WINDWARD AREAS. THIS RETURN TO A WEAK TRADE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE LARGE GYRE SHIFTS EASTWARD.

AS A NEW LARGE SCALE GYRE DEVELOPS NW OF THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE S/SE MONDAY/TUESDAY. ON
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SE AND THEN FAR S OF THE
ISLANDS...LEADING TO PREVAILING WESTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE
CHAIN. THESE WEST WINDS WILL USHER A COUPLE OF FRONTS OVER THE
ISLANDS...AS THE PARENT LOWS PASS N OF THE ISLANDS. ONE FRONT IS
SLATED TO ARRIVE AROUND TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER BY THURSDAY...WITH
THESE BOUNDARIES EXPECTED TO CONTAIN A LITTLE GREATER MOISTURE
DEPTH AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT. WORTH NOTING THAT GLOBAL MODELS STILL
DIFFER AS TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE FRONTS...THUS THE
LONGER RANGE FORECAST WILL BE SUBJECT TO POTENTIALLY LARGE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY FROM
THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES.
CLOUD BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER
KAUAI AND OAHU TONIGHT...USHERING IN SOME CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER..CLOUD BASES AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINATELY
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE NW SWELL IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING LOW-END ADVISORY LEVEL
SURF ALONG EXPOSED N AND W FACING SHORES OF THE ISLANDS. THIS SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND IS EXPECTED TO
BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON THURSDAY. WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT
BUOY OBSERVATIONS TO SEE IF AN EXTENSION IN TIME IS WARRANTED.

REINFORCING SWELLS FROM THE NW AND NNW WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...MAINTAINING ELEVATED SURF ALONG N FACING SHORES...AND
LESS SO ALONG W FACING SHORES...ESPECIALLY AS THE SWELL VEERS TOWARD
THE N ON SATURDAY. BOTH SWELLS WILL PRODUCE SURF NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS...WITH SURF REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE OAHU SURF DISCUSSION
/SRDHFO/ WAS UPDATED EARLIER TODAY AND CONTAINS DETAILED INSIGHT ON
THE SOURCE OF THE SWELLS.

WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/
CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...COMBINED SEAS MAY TOP OUT
NEAR 10 FEET ON SATURDAY IN MARINE ZONES EXPOSED TO BUILDING NNW
SWELL.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI AND OAHU...AND FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES OF MOLOKAI AND MAUI.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 290146
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
346 PM HST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT BOOST TO SHOWERS AS IT PASSES OVER
THE STATE LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WEAK TRADE WINDS
WILL PRODUCE PRIMARILY WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS TO MAUI AND THE
BIG ISLAND THIS WEEKEND. A STRONGER FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE STATE
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ABOUT 320 MILES NORTHWEST OF
KAUAI. MEANWHILE...A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH HAS
MOVED THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH FURTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST...WHICH
HAS ALLOWED THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS TO CROSS THE EASTERN END OF
THE STATE. THE RESULT IS WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE
ISLANDS. UNDER THIS FLOW REGIME WE EXPECT SOME OF THE VOG PLUME TO
MOVE OVER MAUI COUNTY AND POSSIBLY REACH OAHU OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RATHER STABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG
MIDLEVEL RIDGING REMAINS PARKED OVER THE STATE. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
THIS AFTERNOON SHOW STRONG INVERSIONS AT 5500-6500 FEET WHILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE AROUND 0.9 INCHES. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SOME CLOUD BUILD UPS OVER THE ISLANDS PARTICULARLY OVER
THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI...BUT WE ANTICIPATE THESE CLOUDS
DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LAND BREEZES SET IN.

ON THURSDAY...THE SEA BREEZES WILL PRODUCE CLOUD BUILD UPS LIKELY
FOR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...SO EXPECT A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY.
FOR KAUAI...OAHU AND MOLOKAI...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN ON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT APPROACHES. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS DEPICT A WEAK FRONT THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A SMALL
UPTICK IN SHOWERS AS IT PASSES WHICH WILL BE FOCUSED OVER SOUTH
AND WEST FACING SLOPES GIVEN THE PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...THEN
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING SETS UP
JUST NORTH OF THE STATE.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND ON FRIDAY...BUT
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS COULD FUNNEL SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACK OVER
WINDWARD MAUI AND BIG ISLAND THIS COMING WEEKEND. THESE WINDWARD
SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WHILE LEEWARD AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN PLEASANT THIS WEEKEND.

WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AGAIN BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT TO
THE NORTHWEST MOVES CLOSER TO THE STATE. LONG-RANGE MODELS
PASS THE LOW NORTH OF US WHILE THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT TO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY...THEN SHIFT WEST BEHIND
IT. THIS FRONT WILL BE A BIT MORE ROBUST AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SHOWERS. MOST
OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
STATE...SO AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS DEPICT A SECOND ROBUST FRONT WITH SIMILAR CHARACTERISTICS PASSING
OVER THE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...
MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTIONS...WILL PERSIST AROUND THE STATE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A RELATIVELY WEAK FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH
KAUAI THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN IN A VERY
STATE. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT NOT VERY
STRONG.

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SIT N OF THE STATE GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS AWAY FROM THE AREA FOR AWHILE.
EPISODES OF LAND BREEZES BY NIGHT AND SEA BREEZES DURING THE DAY
WILL CONTINUE TO FELT AROUND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE
MAJORITY OF THE AIRPORTS.


&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF FOR
MOST NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES TONIGHT AND MAY STILL BE
BORDERLINE HIGH ON THURSDAY...BUT WILL MONITOR BUOYS TONIGHT TO
JUDGE WHETHER TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

REINFORCING SWELL FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FRIDAY/S SWELL WILL PRODUCE SURF NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR NORTH AND WEST SHORES...WITH SATURDAY/S SWELL LIKELY MOVING
SURF INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SATURDAY SWELL WILL BE FROM THE
320-330 DIRECTION WHICH WILL MAKE MOST OF THE IMPACT ACROSS NORTH
FACING SHORES. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY.

COMBINED SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI AND OAHU...AND FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES OF MOLOKAI AND MAUI.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...FUJII





000
FXHW60 PHFO 290146
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
346 PM HST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT BOOST TO SHOWERS AS IT PASSES OVER
THE STATE LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WEAK TRADE WINDS
WILL PRODUCE PRIMARILY WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS TO MAUI AND THE
BIG ISLAND THIS WEEKEND. A STRONGER FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE STATE
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ABOUT 320 MILES NORTHWEST OF
KAUAI. MEANWHILE...A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH HAS
MOVED THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH FURTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST...WHICH
HAS ALLOWED THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS TO CROSS THE EASTERN END OF
THE STATE. THE RESULT IS WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE
ISLANDS. UNDER THIS FLOW REGIME WE EXPECT SOME OF THE VOG PLUME TO
MOVE OVER MAUI COUNTY AND POSSIBLY REACH OAHU OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RATHER STABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG
MIDLEVEL RIDGING REMAINS PARKED OVER THE STATE. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
THIS AFTERNOON SHOW STRONG INVERSIONS AT 5500-6500 FEET WHILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE AROUND 0.9 INCHES. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SOME CLOUD BUILD UPS OVER THE ISLANDS PARTICULARLY OVER
THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI...BUT WE ANTICIPATE THESE CLOUDS
DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LAND BREEZES SET IN.

ON THURSDAY...THE SEA BREEZES WILL PRODUCE CLOUD BUILD UPS LIKELY
FOR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...SO EXPECT A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY.
FOR KAUAI...OAHU AND MOLOKAI...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN ON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT APPROACHES. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS DEPICT A WEAK FRONT THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A SMALL
UPTICK IN SHOWERS AS IT PASSES WHICH WILL BE FOCUSED OVER SOUTH
AND WEST FACING SLOPES GIVEN THE PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...THEN
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING SETS UP
JUST NORTH OF THE STATE.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND ON FRIDAY...BUT
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS COULD FUNNEL SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACK OVER
WINDWARD MAUI AND BIG ISLAND THIS COMING WEEKEND. THESE WINDWARD
SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WHILE LEEWARD AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN PLEASANT THIS WEEKEND.

WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AGAIN BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT TO
THE NORTHWEST MOVES CLOSER TO THE STATE. LONG-RANGE MODELS
PASS THE LOW NORTH OF US WHILE THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT TO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY...THEN SHIFT WEST BEHIND
IT. THIS FRONT WILL BE A BIT MORE ROBUST AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SHOWERS. MOST
OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
STATE...SO AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS DEPICT A SECOND ROBUST FRONT WITH SIMILAR CHARACTERISTICS PASSING
OVER THE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...
MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTIONS...WILL PERSIST AROUND THE STATE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A RELATIVELY WEAK FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH
KAUAI THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN IN A VERY
STATE. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT NOT VERY
STRONG.

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SIT N OF THE STATE GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS AWAY FROM THE AREA FOR AWHILE.
EPISODES OF LAND BREEZES BY NIGHT AND SEA BREEZES DURING THE DAY
WILL CONTINUE TO FELT AROUND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE
MAJORITY OF THE AIRPORTS.


&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF FOR
MOST NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES TONIGHT AND MAY STILL BE
BORDERLINE HIGH ON THURSDAY...BUT WILL MONITOR BUOYS TONIGHT TO
JUDGE WHETHER TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

REINFORCING SWELL FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FRIDAY/S SWELL WILL PRODUCE SURF NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR NORTH AND WEST SHORES...WITH SATURDAY/S SWELL LIKELY MOVING
SURF INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SATURDAY SWELL WILL BE FROM THE
320-330 DIRECTION WHICH WILL MAKE MOST OF THE IMPACT ACROSS NORTH
FACING SHORES. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY.

COMBINED SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI AND OAHU...AND FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES OF MOLOKAI AND MAUI.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...FUJII






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities