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000
FXHW60 PHFO 040215
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
415 PM HST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HIGH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HURRICANE JIMENA MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
DETERMINE WHAT IF ANY AFFECTS TO THE STATE IT WILL BRING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS ABUNDANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION IS THE RESULT OF AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO. ALOFT...A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS KAUAI WHICH HAS BEEN PROVIDING
INSTABILITY OVER THE STATE AND ENHANCING THE RAINFALL.

MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH STATEWIDE AS WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
CARRYING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE. THE LIGHT FLOW
IS ALLOWING LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO SET UP OVER THE ISLANDS. 00Z
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.89 INCHES AT LIHUE AND 1.72 INCHES AT HILO.
THESE VALUES ARE 1 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO WANE AFTER SUNSET AS
LAND BREEZES SET IN. THE SMALLER ISLANDS MAY SEE OCCASIONAL FLARE
UPS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE CONVERGENCE BAND
BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD AS IGNACIO PULLS AWAY. THUS...WE
HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY FOR THE
STATE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT
SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION WEST OF KAUAI.. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY NOSE IN BETWEEN IGNACIO AND
HURRICANE JIMENA AND SHIFT THE LIGHT WINDS EASTERLY. THE LAND AND
SEA BREEZE PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS MODELS PROJECT WINDS TO
STAY IN THE GENTLE RANGE. EASTERLY FLOW WILL END BY SUNDAY NIGHT
ONCE HURRICANE JIMENA MOVES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO DISRUPT THE FLOW
ALLOWING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

HURRICANE JIMENA IS FORECAST TO LINGER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...AND MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT CLOSER
TO THE ISLANDS LATE NEXT WEEK. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO DETERMINE IF
HAWAII WILL FEEL ANY AFFECTS OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE PUBLIC
SHOULD KEEP A WATCH OF FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST ADVISORIES
ISSUED BY CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER OVER THE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE CENTRAL ISLANDS COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE HAS LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
ISLANDS TODAY. DAYTIME HEATING WAS ABLE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
CONVECTION ON KAUAI AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ON THE BIG ISLAND...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH KONA AND KOHALA
DISTRICTS.

THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARDS KAUAI TONIGHT.
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE. WITHIN THICK LAYERED CLOUDS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF LIGHT RIME ICING...MAINLY BETWEEN 160-FL280. MAUI COUNTY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE CLEARING OUT AS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIFTS WEST...AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF OAHU. IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY CONDITIONS FURTHER DETERIORATE
OVER KAUAI LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR...AND POSSIBLE
LIGHTNING...TURB...AND ICING WITHIN THESE SHOWERS.

THE BIG ISLAND SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE WITH SUNSET...AND OVERNIGHT
PREVAILING VFR SHOULD DOMINATE THE BIG ISLAND.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC IS POSTED FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. AS
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS WILL BE TAILORED.


&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST-FACING SHORES OF MOST
ISLANDS DUE TO AN INCOMING EAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE JIMENA.
EAST SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN AROUND WARNING LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALSO REMAINED IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS PRODUCED BY THE SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND
JIMENA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEK.

A LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY
SURF HEIGHTS ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST
/SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL HAWAII
ISLANDS.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR
SOUTH FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU LANAI KAHOOLAWE AND MAUI.

HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 040215
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
415 PM HST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HIGH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HURRICANE JIMENA MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
DETERMINE WHAT IF ANY AFFECTS TO THE STATE IT WILL BRING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS ABUNDANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION IS THE RESULT OF AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO. ALOFT...A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS KAUAI WHICH HAS BEEN PROVIDING
INSTABILITY OVER THE STATE AND ENHANCING THE RAINFALL.

MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH STATEWIDE AS WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
CARRYING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE. THE LIGHT FLOW
IS ALLOWING LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO SET UP OVER THE ISLANDS. 00Z
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.89 INCHES AT LIHUE AND 1.72 INCHES AT HILO.
THESE VALUES ARE 1 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO WANE AFTER SUNSET AS
LAND BREEZES SET IN. THE SMALLER ISLANDS MAY SEE OCCASIONAL FLARE
UPS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE CONVERGENCE BAND
BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD AS IGNACIO PULLS AWAY. THUS...WE
HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY FOR THE
STATE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT
SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION WEST OF KAUAI.. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY NOSE IN BETWEEN IGNACIO AND
HURRICANE JIMENA AND SHIFT THE LIGHT WINDS EASTERLY. THE LAND AND
SEA BREEZE PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS MODELS PROJECT WINDS TO
STAY IN THE GENTLE RANGE. EASTERLY FLOW WILL END BY SUNDAY NIGHT
ONCE HURRICANE JIMENA MOVES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO DISRUPT THE FLOW
ALLOWING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

HURRICANE JIMENA IS FORECAST TO LINGER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...AND MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT CLOSER
TO THE ISLANDS LATE NEXT WEEK. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO DETERMINE IF
HAWAII WILL FEEL ANY AFFECTS OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE PUBLIC
SHOULD KEEP A WATCH OF FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST ADVISORIES
ISSUED BY CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER OVER THE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE CENTRAL ISLANDS COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE HAS LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
ISLANDS TODAY. DAYTIME HEATING WAS ABLE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
CONVECTION ON KAUAI AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ON THE BIG ISLAND...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH KONA AND KOHALA
DISTRICTS.

THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARDS KAUAI TONIGHT.
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE. WITHIN THICK LAYERED CLOUDS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF LIGHT RIME ICING...MAINLY BETWEEN 160-FL280. MAUI COUNTY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE CLEARING OUT AS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIFTS WEST...AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF OAHU. IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY CONDITIONS FURTHER DETERIORATE
OVER KAUAI LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR...AND POSSIBLE
LIGHTNING...TURB...AND ICING WITHIN THESE SHOWERS.

THE BIG ISLAND SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE WITH SUNSET...AND OVERNIGHT
PREVAILING VFR SHOULD DOMINATE THE BIG ISLAND.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC IS POSTED FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. AS
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS WILL BE TAILORED.


&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST-FACING SHORES OF MOST
ISLANDS DUE TO AN INCOMING EAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE JIMENA.
EAST SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN AROUND WARNING LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALSO REMAINED IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS PRODUCED BY THE SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND
JIMENA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEK.

A LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY
SURF HEIGHTS ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST
/SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL HAWAII
ISLANDS.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR
SOUTH FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU LANAI KAHOOLAWE AND MAUI.

HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 040215
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
415 PM HST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HIGH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HURRICANE JIMENA MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
DETERMINE WHAT IF ANY AFFECTS TO THE STATE IT WILL BRING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS ABUNDANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION IS THE RESULT OF AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO. ALOFT...A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS KAUAI WHICH HAS BEEN PROVIDING
INSTABILITY OVER THE STATE AND ENHANCING THE RAINFALL.

MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH STATEWIDE AS WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
CARRYING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE. THE LIGHT FLOW
IS ALLOWING LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO SET UP OVER THE ISLANDS. 00Z
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.89 INCHES AT LIHUE AND 1.72 INCHES AT HILO.
THESE VALUES ARE 1 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO WANE AFTER SUNSET AS
LAND BREEZES SET IN. THE SMALLER ISLANDS MAY SEE OCCASIONAL FLARE
UPS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE CONVERGENCE BAND
BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD AS IGNACIO PULLS AWAY. THUS...WE
HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY FOR THE
STATE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT
SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION WEST OF KAUAI.. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY NOSE IN BETWEEN IGNACIO AND
HURRICANE JIMENA AND SHIFT THE LIGHT WINDS EASTERLY. THE LAND AND
SEA BREEZE PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS MODELS PROJECT WINDS TO
STAY IN THE GENTLE RANGE. EASTERLY FLOW WILL END BY SUNDAY NIGHT
ONCE HURRICANE JIMENA MOVES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO DISRUPT THE FLOW
ALLOWING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

HURRICANE JIMENA IS FORECAST TO LINGER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...AND MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT CLOSER
TO THE ISLANDS LATE NEXT WEEK. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO DETERMINE IF
HAWAII WILL FEEL ANY AFFECTS OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE PUBLIC
SHOULD KEEP A WATCH OF FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST ADVISORIES
ISSUED BY CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER OVER THE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE CENTRAL ISLANDS COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE HAS LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
ISLANDS TODAY. DAYTIME HEATING WAS ABLE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
CONVECTION ON KAUAI AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ON THE BIG ISLAND...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH KONA AND KOHALA
DISTRICTS.

THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARDS KAUAI TONIGHT.
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE. WITHIN THICK LAYERED CLOUDS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF LIGHT RIME ICING...MAINLY BETWEEN 160-FL280. MAUI COUNTY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE CLEARING OUT AS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIFTS WEST...AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF OAHU. IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY CONDITIONS FURTHER DETERIORATE
OVER KAUAI LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR...AND POSSIBLE
LIGHTNING...TURB...AND ICING WITHIN THESE SHOWERS.

THE BIG ISLAND SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE WITH SUNSET...AND OVERNIGHT
PREVAILING VFR SHOULD DOMINATE THE BIG ISLAND.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC IS POSTED FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. AS
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS WILL BE TAILORED.


&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST-FACING SHORES OF MOST
ISLANDS DUE TO AN INCOMING EAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE JIMENA.
EAST SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN AROUND WARNING LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALSO REMAINED IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS PRODUCED BY THE SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND
JIMENA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEK.

A LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY
SURF HEIGHTS ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST
/SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL HAWAII
ISLANDS.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR
SOUTH FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU LANAI KAHOOLAWE AND MAUI.

HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 032136 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1136 AM HST THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT
GIVEN CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK EASTERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD FROM THE
EAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THOUGH THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS HURRICANE
JIMENA MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...LEADING TO STAGNANT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1000 AM HST THU SEP 3 2015/

RADAR SHOWS ABUNDANT SHOWERS ACROSS OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY LATE THIS
MORNING. INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE AS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF KAUAI.
THE TROUGH IS PUSHING IN COLDER AIR ALOFT CAUSING AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE STATE...PARTICULARLY THE SMALLER ISLANDS.
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH AS WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IS KEEPING THE
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER HAWAII. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
UNSTABLE PROFILE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.67 INCHES AT
LIHUE AND NEAR 2 INCHES AT HILO. THESE VALUES ARE 1 STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER. AS MENTIONED...WINDS ARE
SOUTHERLY AND LIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SEA BREEZES
SETTING UP OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE ANTICIPATE THE SHOWERS TO
FOCUS OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS AS THE SEA BREEZES CONVERGE OVER
THE INTERIORS. WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...THESE
SHOWERS MAY OCCASIONALLY BECOME HEAVY AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY
SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION WEST OF KAUAI...THOUGH KAUAI
WILL LIKELY STILL ON THE FRINGES OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY NOSE IN BETWEEN IGNACIO AND
JIMENA AND SHIFT THE LIGHT WINDS EASTERLY. THE LAND AND SEA BREEZE
PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS MODELS PROJECT WINDS TO STAY IN
THE GENTLE RANGE. EASTERLY FLOW WILL END BY SUNDAY NIGHT ONCE
HURRICANE JIMENA MOVES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO DISRUPT THE FLOW
ALLOWING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER OAHU THIS
MORNING...AS A WIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
TC IGNACIO TRACKS TO THE WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS
JUST WEST OF KAUAI WILL ACT TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EMBEDDED IN THESE SHOWERS AND AIRMET
SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC IS POSTED FOR OAHU. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
CARRY CB TOPS BETWEEN FL350-450...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING AND
TURB. THIS CONVERGENCE BAND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE WEST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS ON KAUAI...INCLUDING PHLI...TO
DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE EASTERN END OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALSO LENDING TO SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND AROUND MAUI COUNTY.
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC IS POSTED OVER EASTERN MAUI. AS THE ZONE
TRACKS WEST EXPECT MAUI COUNTY TO IMPROVE...HOWEVER...AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE AND AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL HOLD
TRUE OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND THE REST OF THE STATE TOO.


&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST-FACING SHORES OF MOST
ISLANDS. THE LARGE SURF WAS DUE TO A MIX OF DECLINING NORTHERLY
SWELL FROM IGNACIO...AND A BUILDING EAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE
JIMENA. THE IGNACIO SWELL WILL BE DROPPING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY
THROUGH TONIGHT. EAST-SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN NEAR WARNING LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH
SURF WARNING WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR EAST FACING SHORES.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALSO REMAINED IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS PRODUCED BY THE SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND
JIMENA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST
/SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL HAWAII ISLANDS.

HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR EAST FACING
SHORES OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 032136 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1136 AM HST THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT
GIVEN CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK EASTERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD FROM THE
EAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THOUGH THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS HURRICANE
JIMENA MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...LEADING TO STAGNANT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1000 AM HST THU SEP 3 2015/

RADAR SHOWS ABUNDANT SHOWERS ACROSS OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY LATE THIS
MORNING. INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE AS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF KAUAI.
THE TROUGH IS PUSHING IN COLDER AIR ALOFT CAUSING AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE STATE...PARTICULARLY THE SMALLER ISLANDS.
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH AS WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IS KEEPING THE
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER HAWAII. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
UNSTABLE PROFILE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.67 INCHES AT
LIHUE AND NEAR 2 INCHES AT HILO. THESE VALUES ARE 1 STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER. AS MENTIONED...WINDS ARE
SOUTHERLY AND LIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SEA BREEZES
SETTING UP OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE ANTICIPATE THE SHOWERS TO
FOCUS OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS AS THE SEA BREEZES CONVERGE OVER
THE INTERIORS. WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...THESE
SHOWERS MAY OCCASIONALLY BECOME HEAVY AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY
SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION WEST OF KAUAI...THOUGH KAUAI
WILL LIKELY STILL ON THE FRINGES OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY NOSE IN BETWEEN IGNACIO AND
JIMENA AND SHIFT THE LIGHT WINDS EASTERLY. THE LAND AND SEA BREEZE
PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS MODELS PROJECT WINDS TO STAY IN
THE GENTLE RANGE. EASTERLY FLOW WILL END BY SUNDAY NIGHT ONCE
HURRICANE JIMENA MOVES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO DISRUPT THE FLOW
ALLOWING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER OAHU THIS
MORNING...AS A WIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
TC IGNACIO TRACKS TO THE WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS
JUST WEST OF KAUAI WILL ACT TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EMBEDDED IN THESE SHOWERS AND AIRMET
SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC IS POSTED FOR OAHU. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
CARRY CB TOPS BETWEEN FL350-450...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING AND
TURB. THIS CONVERGENCE BAND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE WEST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS ON KAUAI...INCLUDING PHLI...TO
DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE EASTERN END OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALSO LENDING TO SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND AROUND MAUI COUNTY.
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC IS POSTED OVER EASTERN MAUI. AS THE ZONE
TRACKS WEST EXPECT MAUI COUNTY TO IMPROVE...HOWEVER...AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE AND AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL HOLD
TRUE OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND THE REST OF THE STATE TOO.


&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST-FACING SHORES OF MOST
ISLANDS. THE LARGE SURF WAS DUE TO A MIX OF DECLINING NORTHERLY
SWELL FROM IGNACIO...AND A BUILDING EAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE
JIMENA. THE IGNACIO SWELL WILL BE DROPPING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY
THROUGH TONIGHT. EAST-SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN NEAR WARNING LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH
SURF WARNING WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR EAST FACING SHORES.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALSO REMAINED IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS PRODUCED BY THE SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND
JIMENA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST
/SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL HAWAII ISLANDS.

HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR EAST FACING
SHORES OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 032136 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1136 AM HST THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT
GIVEN CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK EASTERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD FROM THE
EAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THOUGH THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS HURRICANE
JIMENA MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...LEADING TO STAGNANT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1000 AM HST THU SEP 3 2015/

RADAR SHOWS ABUNDANT SHOWERS ACROSS OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY LATE THIS
MORNING. INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE AS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF KAUAI.
THE TROUGH IS PUSHING IN COLDER AIR ALOFT CAUSING AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE STATE...PARTICULARLY THE SMALLER ISLANDS.
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH AS WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IS KEEPING THE
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER HAWAII. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
UNSTABLE PROFILE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.67 INCHES AT
LIHUE AND NEAR 2 INCHES AT HILO. THESE VALUES ARE 1 STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER. AS MENTIONED...WINDS ARE
SOUTHERLY AND LIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SEA BREEZES
SETTING UP OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE ANTICIPATE THE SHOWERS TO
FOCUS OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS AS THE SEA BREEZES CONVERGE OVER
THE INTERIORS. WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...THESE
SHOWERS MAY OCCASIONALLY BECOME HEAVY AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY
SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION WEST OF KAUAI...THOUGH KAUAI
WILL LIKELY STILL ON THE FRINGES OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY NOSE IN BETWEEN IGNACIO AND
JIMENA AND SHIFT THE LIGHT WINDS EASTERLY. THE LAND AND SEA BREEZE
PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS MODELS PROJECT WINDS TO STAY IN
THE GENTLE RANGE. EASTERLY FLOW WILL END BY SUNDAY NIGHT ONCE
HURRICANE JIMENA MOVES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO DISRUPT THE FLOW
ALLOWING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER OAHU THIS
MORNING...AS A WIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
TC IGNACIO TRACKS TO THE WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS
JUST WEST OF KAUAI WILL ACT TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EMBEDDED IN THESE SHOWERS AND AIRMET
SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC IS POSTED FOR OAHU. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
CARRY CB TOPS BETWEEN FL350-450...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING AND
TURB. THIS CONVERGENCE BAND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE WEST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS ON KAUAI...INCLUDING PHLI...TO
DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE EASTERN END OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALSO LENDING TO SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND AROUND MAUI COUNTY.
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC IS POSTED OVER EASTERN MAUI. AS THE ZONE
TRACKS WEST EXPECT MAUI COUNTY TO IMPROVE...HOWEVER...AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE AND AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL HOLD
TRUE OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND THE REST OF THE STATE TOO.


&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST-FACING SHORES OF MOST
ISLANDS. THE LARGE SURF WAS DUE TO A MIX OF DECLINING NORTHERLY
SWELL FROM IGNACIO...AND A BUILDING EAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE
JIMENA. THE IGNACIO SWELL WILL BE DROPPING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY
THROUGH TONIGHT. EAST-SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN NEAR WARNING LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH
SURF WARNING WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR EAST FACING SHORES.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALSO REMAINED IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS PRODUCED BY THE SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND
JIMENA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST
/SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL HAWAII ISLANDS.

HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR EAST FACING
SHORES OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON








000
FXHW60 PHFO 032136 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1136 AM HST THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT
GIVEN CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK EASTERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD FROM THE
EAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THOUGH THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS HURRICANE
JIMENA MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...LEADING TO STAGNANT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1000 AM HST THU SEP 3 2015/

RADAR SHOWS ABUNDANT SHOWERS ACROSS OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY LATE THIS
MORNING. INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE AS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF KAUAI.
THE TROUGH IS PUSHING IN COLDER AIR ALOFT CAUSING AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE STATE...PARTICULARLY THE SMALLER ISLANDS.
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH AS WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IS KEEPING THE
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER HAWAII. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
UNSTABLE PROFILE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.67 INCHES AT
LIHUE AND NEAR 2 INCHES AT HILO. THESE VALUES ARE 1 STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER. AS MENTIONED...WINDS ARE
SOUTHERLY AND LIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SEA BREEZES
SETTING UP OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE ANTICIPATE THE SHOWERS TO
FOCUS OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS AS THE SEA BREEZES CONVERGE OVER
THE INTERIORS. WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...THESE
SHOWERS MAY OCCASIONALLY BECOME HEAVY AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY
SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION WEST OF KAUAI...THOUGH KAUAI
WILL LIKELY STILL ON THE FRINGES OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY NOSE IN BETWEEN IGNACIO AND
JIMENA AND SHIFT THE LIGHT WINDS EASTERLY. THE LAND AND SEA BREEZE
PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS MODELS PROJECT WINDS TO STAY IN
THE GENTLE RANGE. EASTERLY FLOW WILL END BY SUNDAY NIGHT ONCE
HURRICANE JIMENA MOVES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO DISRUPT THE FLOW
ALLOWING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER OAHU THIS
MORNING...AS A WIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
TC IGNACIO TRACKS TO THE WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS
JUST WEST OF KAUAI WILL ACT TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EMBEDDED IN THESE SHOWERS AND AIRMET
SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC IS POSTED FOR OAHU. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
CARRY CB TOPS BETWEEN FL350-450...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING AND
TURB. THIS CONVERGENCE BAND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE WEST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS ON KAUAI...INCLUDING PHLI...TO
DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE EASTERN END OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALSO LENDING TO SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND AROUND MAUI COUNTY.
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC IS POSTED OVER EASTERN MAUI. AS THE ZONE
TRACKS WEST EXPECT MAUI COUNTY TO IMPROVE...HOWEVER...AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE AND AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL HOLD
TRUE OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND THE REST OF THE STATE TOO.


&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST-FACING SHORES OF MOST
ISLANDS. THE LARGE SURF WAS DUE TO A MIX OF DECLINING NORTHERLY
SWELL FROM IGNACIO...AND A BUILDING EAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE
JIMENA. THE IGNACIO SWELL WILL BE DROPPING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY
THROUGH TONIGHT. EAST-SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN NEAR WARNING LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH
SURF WARNING WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR EAST FACING SHORES.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALSO REMAINED IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS PRODUCED BY THE SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND
JIMENA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST
/SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL HAWAII ISLANDS.

HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR EAST FACING
SHORES OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON








000
FXHW60 PHFO 032000
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK EASTERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD FROM THE
EAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THOUGH THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS HURRICANE
JIMENA MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...LEADING TO STAGNANT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS ABUNDANT SHOWERS ACROSS OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY LATE THIS
MORNING. INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE AS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF KAUAI.
THE TROUGH IS PUSHING IN COLDER AIR ALOFT CAUSING AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE STATE...PARTICULARLY THE SMALLER ISLANDS.
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH AS WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IS KEEPING THE
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER HAWAII. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
UNSTABLE PROFILE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.67 INCHES AT
LIHUE AND NEAR 2 INCHES AT HILO. THESE VALUES ARE 1 STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER. AS MENTIONED...WINDS ARE
SOUTHERLY AND LIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SEA BREEZES
SETTING UP OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE ANTICIPATE THE SHOWERS TO
FOCUS OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS AS THE SEA BREEZES CONVERGE OVER
THE INTERIORS. WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...THESE
SHOWERS MAY OCCASIONALLY BECOME HEAVY AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY
SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION WEST OF KAUAI...THOUGH KAUAI
WILL LIKELY STILL ON THE FRINGES OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY NOSE IN BETWEEN IGNACIO AND
JIMENA AND SHIFT THE LIGHT WINDS EASTERLY. THE LAND AND SEA BREEZE
PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS MODELS PROJECT WINDS TO STAY IN
THE GENTLE RANGE. EASTERLY FLOW WILL END BY SUNDAY NIGHT ONCE
HURRICANE JIMENA MOVES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO DISRUPT THE FLOW
ALLOWING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER OAHU THIS
MORNING...AS A WIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
TC IGNACIO TRACKS TO THE WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS
JUST WEST OF KAUAI WILL ACT TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EMBEDDED IN THESE SHOWERS AND AIRMET
SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC IS POSTED FOR OAHU. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
CARRY CB TOPS BETWEEN FL350-450...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING AND
TURB. THIS CONVERGENCE BAND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE WEST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS ON KAUAI...INCLUDING PHLI...TO
DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE EASTERN END OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALSO LENDING TO SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND AROUND MAUI COUNTY.
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC IS POSTED OVER EASTERN MAUI. AS THE ZONE
TRACKS WEST EXPECT MAUI COUNTY TO IMPROVE...HOWEVER...AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE AND AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL HOLD
TRUE OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND THE REST OF THE STATE TOO.


&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST-FACING SHORES OF MOST
ISLANDS. THE LARGE SURF WAS DUE TO A MIX OF DECLINING NORTHERLY
SWELL FROM IGNACIO...AND A BUILDING EAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE
JIMENA. THE IGNACIO SWELL WILL BE DROPPING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY
THROUGH TONIGHT. EAST-SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN NEAR WARNING LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH
SURF WARNING WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR EAST FACING SHORES.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALSO REMAINED IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS PRODUCED BY THE SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND
JIMENA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST
/SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL HAWAII ISLANDS.

HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR EAST FACING
SHORES OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 032000
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK EASTERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD FROM THE
EAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THOUGH THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS HURRICANE
JIMENA MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...LEADING TO STAGNANT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS ABUNDANT SHOWERS ACROSS OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY LATE THIS
MORNING. INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE AS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF KAUAI.
THE TROUGH IS PUSHING IN COLDER AIR ALOFT CAUSING AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE STATE...PARTICULARLY THE SMALLER ISLANDS.
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH AS WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IS KEEPING THE
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER HAWAII. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
UNSTABLE PROFILE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.67 INCHES AT
LIHUE AND NEAR 2 INCHES AT HILO. THESE VALUES ARE 1 STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER. AS MENTIONED...WINDS ARE
SOUTHERLY AND LIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SEA BREEZES
SETTING UP OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE ANTICIPATE THE SHOWERS TO
FOCUS OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS AS THE SEA BREEZES CONVERGE OVER
THE INTERIORS. WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...THESE
SHOWERS MAY OCCASIONALLY BECOME HEAVY AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY
SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION WEST OF KAUAI...THOUGH KAUAI
WILL LIKELY STILL ON THE FRINGES OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY NOSE IN BETWEEN IGNACIO AND
JIMENA AND SHIFT THE LIGHT WINDS EASTERLY. THE LAND AND SEA BREEZE
PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS MODELS PROJECT WINDS TO STAY IN
THE GENTLE RANGE. EASTERLY FLOW WILL END BY SUNDAY NIGHT ONCE
HURRICANE JIMENA MOVES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO DISRUPT THE FLOW
ALLOWING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER OAHU THIS
MORNING...AS A WIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
TC IGNACIO TRACKS TO THE WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS
JUST WEST OF KAUAI WILL ACT TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EMBEDDED IN THESE SHOWERS AND AIRMET
SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC IS POSTED FOR OAHU. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
CARRY CB TOPS BETWEEN FL350-450...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING AND
TURB. THIS CONVERGENCE BAND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE WEST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS ON KAUAI...INCLUDING PHLI...TO
DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE EASTERN END OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALSO LENDING TO SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND AROUND MAUI COUNTY.
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC IS POSTED OVER EASTERN MAUI. AS THE ZONE
TRACKS WEST EXPECT MAUI COUNTY TO IMPROVE...HOWEVER...AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE AND AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL HOLD
TRUE OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND THE REST OF THE STATE TOO.


&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST-FACING SHORES OF MOST
ISLANDS. THE LARGE SURF WAS DUE TO A MIX OF DECLINING NORTHERLY
SWELL FROM IGNACIO...AND A BUILDING EAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE
JIMENA. THE IGNACIO SWELL WILL BE DROPPING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY
THROUGH TONIGHT. EAST-SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN NEAR WARNING LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH
SURF WARNING WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR EAST FACING SHORES.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALSO REMAINED IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS PRODUCED BY THE SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND
JIMENA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST
/SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL HAWAII ISLANDS.

HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR EAST FACING
SHORES OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 032000
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK EASTERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD FROM THE
EAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THOUGH THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS HURRICANE
JIMENA MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...LEADING TO STAGNANT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS ABUNDANT SHOWERS ACROSS OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY LATE THIS
MORNING. INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE AS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF KAUAI.
THE TROUGH IS PUSHING IN COLDER AIR ALOFT CAUSING AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE STATE...PARTICULARLY THE SMALLER ISLANDS.
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH AS WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IS KEEPING THE
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER HAWAII. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
UNSTABLE PROFILE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.67 INCHES AT
LIHUE AND NEAR 2 INCHES AT HILO. THESE VALUES ARE 1 STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER. AS MENTIONED...WINDS ARE
SOUTHERLY AND LIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SEA BREEZES
SETTING UP OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE ANTICIPATE THE SHOWERS TO
FOCUS OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS AS THE SEA BREEZES CONVERGE OVER
THE INTERIORS. WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...THESE
SHOWERS MAY OCCASIONALLY BECOME HEAVY AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY
SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION WEST OF KAUAI...THOUGH KAUAI
WILL LIKELY STILL ON THE FRINGES OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY NOSE IN BETWEEN IGNACIO AND
JIMENA AND SHIFT THE LIGHT WINDS EASTERLY. THE LAND AND SEA BREEZE
PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS MODELS PROJECT WINDS TO STAY IN
THE GENTLE RANGE. EASTERLY FLOW WILL END BY SUNDAY NIGHT ONCE
HURRICANE JIMENA MOVES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO DISRUPT THE FLOW
ALLOWING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER OAHU THIS
MORNING...AS A WIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
TC IGNACIO TRACKS TO THE WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS
JUST WEST OF KAUAI WILL ACT TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EMBEDDED IN THESE SHOWERS AND AIRMET
SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC IS POSTED FOR OAHU. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
CARRY CB TOPS BETWEEN FL350-450...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING AND
TURB. THIS CONVERGENCE BAND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE WEST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS ON KAUAI...INCLUDING PHLI...TO
DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE EASTERN END OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALSO LENDING TO SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND AROUND MAUI COUNTY.
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC IS POSTED OVER EASTERN MAUI. AS THE ZONE
TRACKS WEST EXPECT MAUI COUNTY TO IMPROVE...HOWEVER...AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE AND AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL HOLD
TRUE OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND THE REST OF THE STATE TOO.


&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST-FACING SHORES OF MOST
ISLANDS. THE LARGE SURF WAS DUE TO A MIX OF DECLINING NORTHERLY
SWELL FROM IGNACIO...AND A BUILDING EAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE
JIMENA. THE IGNACIO SWELL WILL BE DROPPING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY
THROUGH TONIGHT. EAST-SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN NEAR WARNING LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH
SURF WARNING WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR EAST FACING SHORES.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALSO REMAINED IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS PRODUCED BY THE SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND
JIMENA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST
/SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL HAWAII ISLANDS.

HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR EAST FACING
SHORES OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 032000
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK EASTERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD FROM THE
EAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THOUGH THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS HURRICANE
JIMENA MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...LEADING TO STAGNANT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS ABUNDANT SHOWERS ACROSS OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY LATE THIS
MORNING. INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE AS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF KAUAI.
THE TROUGH IS PUSHING IN COLDER AIR ALOFT CAUSING AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE STATE...PARTICULARLY THE SMALLER ISLANDS.
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH AS WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IS KEEPING THE
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER HAWAII. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
UNSTABLE PROFILE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.67 INCHES AT
LIHUE AND NEAR 2 INCHES AT HILO. THESE VALUES ARE 1 STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER. AS MENTIONED...WINDS ARE
SOUTHERLY AND LIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SEA BREEZES
SETTING UP OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE ANTICIPATE THE SHOWERS TO
FOCUS OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS AS THE SEA BREEZES CONVERGE OVER
THE INTERIORS. WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...THESE
SHOWERS MAY OCCASIONALLY BECOME HEAVY AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY
SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION WEST OF KAUAI...THOUGH KAUAI
WILL LIKELY STILL ON THE FRINGES OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY NOSE IN BETWEEN IGNACIO AND
JIMENA AND SHIFT THE LIGHT WINDS EASTERLY. THE LAND AND SEA BREEZE
PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS MODELS PROJECT WINDS TO STAY IN
THE GENTLE RANGE. EASTERLY FLOW WILL END BY SUNDAY NIGHT ONCE
HURRICANE JIMENA MOVES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO DISRUPT THE FLOW
ALLOWING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER OAHU THIS
MORNING...AS A WIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
TC IGNACIO TRACKS TO THE WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS
JUST WEST OF KAUAI WILL ACT TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EMBEDDED IN THESE SHOWERS AND AIRMET
SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC IS POSTED FOR OAHU. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
CARRY CB TOPS BETWEEN FL350-450...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING AND
TURB. THIS CONVERGENCE BAND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE WEST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS ON KAUAI...INCLUDING PHLI...TO
DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE EASTERN END OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALSO LENDING TO SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND AROUND MAUI COUNTY.
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC IS POSTED OVER EASTERN MAUI. AS THE ZONE
TRACKS WEST EXPECT MAUI COUNTY TO IMPROVE...HOWEVER...AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE AND AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL HOLD
TRUE OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND THE REST OF THE STATE TOO.


&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST-FACING SHORES OF MOST
ISLANDS. THE LARGE SURF WAS DUE TO A MIX OF DECLINING NORTHERLY
SWELL FROM IGNACIO...AND A BUILDING EAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE
JIMENA. THE IGNACIO SWELL WILL BE DROPPING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY
THROUGH TONIGHT. EAST-SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN NEAR WARNING LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH
SURF WARNING WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR EAST FACING SHORES.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALSO REMAINED IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS PRODUCED BY THE SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND
JIMENA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST
/SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL HAWAII ISLANDS.

HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR EAST FACING
SHORES OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 031329
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SPOTTY...BUT LOCALLY
VERY HEAVY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK TRADE
WINDS AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM THE EAST
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THOUGH THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN HOTTER AND
MORE HUMID THAN USUAL. PREVAILING WINDS WILL DIMINISH INTO NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO STAGNANT CONDITIONS AND INCREASED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AGAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE INSANE
VALUES EARLIER IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER KAUAI COUNTY...SLIGHT
CONVERGENCE IN THE WEAK SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE STATE
CONTINUED TO ENCOURAGE DEEP CONVECTION. A SHALLOW MID-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE ISLANDS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO
ALSO CONTRIBUTED. LAND BREEZES HELPED TO KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS THREATENED
SERIOUS PROBLEMS IF ANY OF THEM WERE TO MAKE IT ASHORE. ANOTHER
CONVECTIVE SURGE...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE INTO THE
EVENING...WILL OCCUR AS SEA BREEZES BECOME IMPORTANT AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE HUMID...HOT...AND LARGELY STAGNANT CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN WILL
APPROACH...BUT FALL JUST SHORT OF...THE CRITERIA FOR AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT ADVISORY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
LITTLE EFFECT ON THIS CONCERN.

BY FRIDAY...A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN OF TROPICAL CYCLONES DRIVING
REGIONAL WEATHER MAY BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE. ALTHOUGH TROPICAL
CYCLONE JIMENA WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH AWAY NOT TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS
DIRECTLY...A SWATH OF NORTHEAST WINDS WILL EXTEND PAST THE NORTH
EDGE OF THE STORM AND OVER THE STATE. GUIDANCE PREDICTED FAIRLY
MODEST WIND SPEEDS...BUT THEY STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING STRONGER
THAN THE CURRENT PREVAILING FLOW. THIS PERIOD OF TRADE WINDS WILL
END BY SUNDAY NIGHT ONCE JIMENA MOVES FAR ENOUGH NORTH...LEAVING
FEEBLE NORTHERLIES IN PLACE...BUT A NUMBER OF SOLUTIONS PREDICTED A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS TO REACH THE ISLANDS IN THE MEANTIME.

STAGNANT FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK WILL PERMIT EVAPORATION TO MOISTEN THE
AIR MASS AGAIN...AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL PREVAIL. CONDITIONS DURING
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK DEPENDED HEAVILY ON THE PRECISE TRACK
OF JIMENA.

&&

.AVIATION...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS HAWAII
TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE IGNACIO WHICH IS NOW LOCATED FAR
TO THE NORTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE AS OF 2 AM...AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS A COUPLE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES
LINGER NEARBY. DEVELOPING SEABREEZES OVER THE ISLANDS WILL PROVIDE
AN ADDITIONAL TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS
OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CARRY CB TOPS UP TO FL450...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ICING AND TURB.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS IN EFFECT FOR OAHU AND
PORTIONS OF MAUI AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL AIRMETS FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR EAST-FACING SHORES OF
MOST ISLANDS. THE LARGE SURF WAS DUE TO A MIX OF DECLINING NORTHERLY
SWELL FROM IGNACIO...AND A BUILDING EAST SWELL FROM DISTANT
HURRICANE JIMENA. THE IGNACIO SWELL STILL WILL BE DROPPING OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY. SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WAS EXPECTED TO RISE
AGAIN TODAY. EVEN IF THE SWELL DROPS SLIGHTLY...EAST-SHORE SURF WILL
REMAIN NEAR WARNING LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...AND LIKELY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH SURF WARNING PROBABLY WILL NEED
EXTENSION BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALSO REMAINED IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS PRODUCED BY THE SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND
JIMENA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST
/SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL HAWAII ISLANDS.

HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-
OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND
EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...RYSHKO
AVIATION...JACOBSON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 031329
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SPOTTY...BUT LOCALLY
VERY HEAVY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK TRADE
WINDS AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM THE EAST
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THOUGH THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN HOTTER AND
MORE HUMID THAN USUAL. PREVAILING WINDS WILL DIMINISH INTO NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO STAGNANT CONDITIONS AND INCREASED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AGAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE INSANE
VALUES EARLIER IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER KAUAI COUNTY...SLIGHT
CONVERGENCE IN THE WEAK SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE STATE
CONTINUED TO ENCOURAGE DEEP CONVECTION. A SHALLOW MID-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE ISLANDS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO
ALSO CONTRIBUTED. LAND BREEZES HELPED TO KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS THREATENED
SERIOUS PROBLEMS IF ANY OF THEM WERE TO MAKE IT ASHORE. ANOTHER
CONVECTIVE SURGE...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE INTO THE
EVENING...WILL OCCUR AS SEA BREEZES BECOME IMPORTANT AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE HUMID...HOT...AND LARGELY STAGNANT CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN WILL
APPROACH...BUT FALL JUST SHORT OF...THE CRITERIA FOR AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT ADVISORY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
LITTLE EFFECT ON THIS CONCERN.

BY FRIDAY...A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN OF TROPICAL CYCLONES DRIVING
REGIONAL WEATHER MAY BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE. ALTHOUGH TROPICAL
CYCLONE JIMENA WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH AWAY NOT TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS
DIRECTLY...A SWATH OF NORTHEAST WINDS WILL EXTEND PAST THE NORTH
EDGE OF THE STORM AND OVER THE STATE. GUIDANCE PREDICTED FAIRLY
MODEST WIND SPEEDS...BUT THEY STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING STRONGER
THAN THE CURRENT PREVAILING FLOW. THIS PERIOD OF TRADE WINDS WILL
END BY SUNDAY NIGHT ONCE JIMENA MOVES FAR ENOUGH NORTH...LEAVING
FEEBLE NORTHERLIES IN PLACE...BUT A NUMBER OF SOLUTIONS PREDICTED A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS TO REACH THE ISLANDS IN THE MEANTIME.

STAGNANT FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK WILL PERMIT EVAPORATION TO MOISTEN THE
AIR MASS AGAIN...AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL PREVAIL. CONDITIONS DURING
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK DEPENDED HEAVILY ON THE PRECISE TRACK
OF JIMENA.

&&

.AVIATION...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS HAWAII
TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE IGNACIO WHICH IS NOW LOCATED FAR
TO THE NORTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE AS OF 2 AM...AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS A COUPLE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES
LINGER NEARBY. DEVELOPING SEABREEZES OVER THE ISLANDS WILL PROVIDE
AN ADDITIONAL TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS
OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CARRY CB TOPS UP TO FL450...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ICING AND TURB.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS IN EFFECT FOR OAHU AND
PORTIONS OF MAUI AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL AIRMETS FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR EAST-FACING SHORES OF
MOST ISLANDS. THE LARGE SURF WAS DUE TO A MIX OF DECLINING NORTHERLY
SWELL FROM IGNACIO...AND A BUILDING EAST SWELL FROM DISTANT
HURRICANE JIMENA. THE IGNACIO SWELL STILL WILL BE DROPPING OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY. SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WAS EXPECTED TO RISE
AGAIN TODAY. EVEN IF THE SWELL DROPS SLIGHTLY...EAST-SHORE SURF WILL
REMAIN NEAR WARNING LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...AND LIKELY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH SURF WARNING PROBABLY WILL NEED
EXTENSION BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALSO REMAINED IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS PRODUCED BY THE SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND
JIMENA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST
/SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL HAWAII ISLANDS.

HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-
OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND
EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...RYSHKO
AVIATION...JACOBSON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 030622
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SPOTTY...BUT LOCALLY
HEAVY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK TRADE WINDS
AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM THE EAST ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THOUGH THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN HOTTER AND MORE
HUMID THAN USUAL. PREVAILING WINDS WILL DIMINISH INTO NEXT WEEK...
LEADING TO STAGNANT CONDITIONS AND INCREASED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AGAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE INSANE
AMOUNTS EARLIER IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER KAUAI COUNTY...SLIGHT
CONVERGENCE IN THE WEAK SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE STATE
CONTINUED TO ENCOURAGE CONVECTION. A SHALLOW MID-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE ISLANDS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE
IGNACIO...AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES...ALSO CONTRIBUTED.

THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BIG ISLAND SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THE
EVENING...AND THOSE OVER THE MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS MAY WELL
MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT SHOWERS LIKELY WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE MORE GENERALLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANOTHER CONVECTIVE
SURGE...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE INTO THE EVENING...WILL OCCUR
AS SEA BREEZES BECOME IMPORTANT AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

BY FRIDAY...A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN OF TROPICAL CYCLONES DRIVING
REGIONAL WEATHER MAY BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE. ALTHOUGH TROPICAL
CYCLONE JIMENA WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH AWAY NOT TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS
DIRECTLY...A SWATH OF NORTHEAST WINDS WILL EXTEND PAST THE NORTH
EDGE OF THE STORM AND OVER THE STATE. GUIDANCE PREDICTED FAIRLY
MODEST WIND SPEEDS...BUT THEY STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING STRONGER
THAN THE CURRENT PREVAILING FLOW. THIS PERIOD OF TRADE WINDS WILL
END BY SUNDAY NIGHT ONCE JIMENA MOVES FAR ENOUGH NORTH...LEAVING
FEEBLE NORTHERLIES IN PLACE...BUT A NUMBER OF SOLUTIONS PREDICTED A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS TO REACH THE ISLANDS IN THE MEANTIME.

STAGNANT FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK WILL PERMIT EVAPORATION TO MOISTEN THE
AIR MASS AGAIN...AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL PREVAIL. CONDITIONS DURING
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK DEPENDED HEAVILY ON THE PRECISE TRACK
OF JIMENA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEE TC SIGMET SERIES TANGO FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO...LOCATED
ABOUT 375 MILES NORTH OF LIHUE AS OF 5 PM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS HAWAII
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY
DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOLOKAI AND OAHU...
SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD KAUAI LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS A
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BAND MOVES SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE STATE. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CARRY CB TOPS UP TO FL450...MVFR TO
ISOL IFR CONDITIONS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ICING AND TURB.

A SEABREEZE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE ONCE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ISLANDS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. MVFR AND
ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION REMAINS FOR SECTIONS OF THE
BIG ISLAND. THIS AIRMET WILL BE CANCELLED LATER THIS EVENING AS
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL AIRMETS FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR EAST-FACING SHORES OF
MOST ISLANDS. THE LARGE SURF WAS DUE TO A MIX OF DECLINING NORTHERLY
SWELL FROM IGNACIO...AND A BUILDING EAST SWELL FROM DISTANT
HURRICANE JIMENA. THE IGNACIO SWELL STILL WAS LARGEST ACROSS KAUAI
AND OAHU...BUT WILL BE DROPPING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY. SURF ALONG
EAST-FACING SHORES WILL APPROACH WARNING LEVELS TONIGHT...AND WAS
EXPECTED TO RISE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. EVEN IF THE SWELL DROPS
SLIGHTLY...EAST-SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN NEAR WARNING LEVELS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH
SURF WARNING PROBABLY WILL NEED EXTENSION BEYOND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALSO REMAINED IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS PRODUCED BY THE SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND
JIMENA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST
/SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-
OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND
EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...RYSHKO
AVIATION...JACOBSON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 030622
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SPOTTY...BUT LOCALLY
HEAVY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK TRADE WINDS
AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM THE EAST ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THOUGH THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN HOTTER AND MORE
HUMID THAN USUAL. PREVAILING WINDS WILL DIMINISH INTO NEXT WEEK...
LEADING TO STAGNANT CONDITIONS AND INCREASED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AGAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE INSANE
AMOUNTS EARLIER IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER KAUAI COUNTY...SLIGHT
CONVERGENCE IN THE WEAK SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE STATE
CONTINUED TO ENCOURAGE CONVECTION. A SHALLOW MID-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE ISLANDS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE
IGNACIO...AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES...ALSO CONTRIBUTED.

THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BIG ISLAND SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THE
EVENING...AND THOSE OVER THE MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS MAY WELL
MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT SHOWERS LIKELY WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE MORE GENERALLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANOTHER CONVECTIVE
SURGE...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE INTO THE EVENING...WILL OCCUR
AS SEA BREEZES BECOME IMPORTANT AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

BY FRIDAY...A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN OF TROPICAL CYCLONES DRIVING
REGIONAL WEATHER MAY BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE. ALTHOUGH TROPICAL
CYCLONE JIMENA WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH AWAY NOT TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS
DIRECTLY...A SWATH OF NORTHEAST WINDS WILL EXTEND PAST THE NORTH
EDGE OF THE STORM AND OVER THE STATE. GUIDANCE PREDICTED FAIRLY
MODEST WIND SPEEDS...BUT THEY STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING STRONGER
THAN THE CURRENT PREVAILING FLOW. THIS PERIOD OF TRADE WINDS WILL
END BY SUNDAY NIGHT ONCE JIMENA MOVES FAR ENOUGH NORTH...LEAVING
FEEBLE NORTHERLIES IN PLACE...BUT A NUMBER OF SOLUTIONS PREDICTED A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS TO REACH THE ISLANDS IN THE MEANTIME.

STAGNANT FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK WILL PERMIT EVAPORATION TO MOISTEN THE
AIR MASS AGAIN...AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL PREVAIL. CONDITIONS DURING
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK DEPENDED HEAVILY ON THE PRECISE TRACK
OF JIMENA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEE TC SIGMET SERIES TANGO FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO...LOCATED
ABOUT 375 MILES NORTH OF LIHUE AS OF 5 PM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS HAWAII
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY
DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOLOKAI AND OAHU...
SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD KAUAI LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS A
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BAND MOVES SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE STATE. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CARRY CB TOPS UP TO FL450...MVFR TO
ISOL IFR CONDITIONS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ICING AND TURB.

A SEABREEZE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE ONCE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ISLANDS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. MVFR AND
ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION REMAINS FOR SECTIONS OF THE
BIG ISLAND. THIS AIRMET WILL BE CANCELLED LATER THIS EVENING AS
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL AIRMETS FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR EAST-FACING SHORES OF
MOST ISLANDS. THE LARGE SURF WAS DUE TO A MIX OF DECLINING NORTHERLY
SWELL FROM IGNACIO...AND A BUILDING EAST SWELL FROM DISTANT
HURRICANE JIMENA. THE IGNACIO SWELL STILL WAS LARGEST ACROSS KAUAI
AND OAHU...BUT WILL BE DROPPING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY. SURF ALONG
EAST-FACING SHORES WILL APPROACH WARNING LEVELS TONIGHT...AND WAS
EXPECTED TO RISE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. EVEN IF THE SWELL DROPS
SLIGHTLY...EAST-SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN NEAR WARNING LEVELS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH
SURF WARNING PROBABLY WILL NEED EXTENSION BEYOND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALSO REMAINED IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS PRODUCED BY THE SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND
JIMENA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST
/SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-
OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND
EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...RYSHKO
AVIATION...JACOBSON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 030622
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SPOTTY...BUT LOCALLY
HEAVY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK TRADE WINDS
AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM THE EAST ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THOUGH THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN HOTTER AND MORE
HUMID THAN USUAL. PREVAILING WINDS WILL DIMINISH INTO NEXT WEEK...
LEADING TO STAGNANT CONDITIONS AND INCREASED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AGAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE INSANE
AMOUNTS EARLIER IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER KAUAI COUNTY...SLIGHT
CONVERGENCE IN THE WEAK SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE STATE
CONTINUED TO ENCOURAGE CONVECTION. A SHALLOW MID-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE ISLANDS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE
IGNACIO...AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES...ALSO CONTRIBUTED.

THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BIG ISLAND SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THE
EVENING...AND THOSE OVER THE MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS MAY WELL
MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT SHOWERS LIKELY WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE MORE GENERALLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANOTHER CONVECTIVE
SURGE...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE INTO THE EVENING...WILL OCCUR
AS SEA BREEZES BECOME IMPORTANT AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

BY FRIDAY...A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN OF TROPICAL CYCLONES DRIVING
REGIONAL WEATHER MAY BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE. ALTHOUGH TROPICAL
CYCLONE JIMENA WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH AWAY NOT TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS
DIRECTLY...A SWATH OF NORTHEAST WINDS WILL EXTEND PAST THE NORTH
EDGE OF THE STORM AND OVER THE STATE. GUIDANCE PREDICTED FAIRLY
MODEST WIND SPEEDS...BUT THEY STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING STRONGER
THAN THE CURRENT PREVAILING FLOW. THIS PERIOD OF TRADE WINDS WILL
END BY SUNDAY NIGHT ONCE JIMENA MOVES FAR ENOUGH NORTH...LEAVING
FEEBLE NORTHERLIES IN PLACE...BUT A NUMBER OF SOLUTIONS PREDICTED A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS TO REACH THE ISLANDS IN THE MEANTIME.

STAGNANT FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK WILL PERMIT EVAPORATION TO MOISTEN THE
AIR MASS AGAIN...AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL PREVAIL. CONDITIONS DURING
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK DEPENDED HEAVILY ON THE PRECISE TRACK
OF JIMENA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEE TC SIGMET SERIES TANGO FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO...LOCATED
ABOUT 375 MILES NORTH OF LIHUE AS OF 5 PM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS HAWAII
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY
DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOLOKAI AND OAHU...
SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD KAUAI LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS A
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BAND MOVES SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE STATE. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CARRY CB TOPS UP TO FL450...MVFR TO
ISOL IFR CONDITIONS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ICING AND TURB.

A SEABREEZE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE ONCE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ISLANDS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. MVFR AND
ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION REMAINS FOR SECTIONS OF THE
BIG ISLAND. THIS AIRMET WILL BE CANCELLED LATER THIS EVENING AS
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL AIRMETS FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR EAST-FACING SHORES OF
MOST ISLANDS. THE LARGE SURF WAS DUE TO A MIX OF DECLINING NORTHERLY
SWELL FROM IGNACIO...AND A BUILDING EAST SWELL FROM DISTANT
HURRICANE JIMENA. THE IGNACIO SWELL STILL WAS LARGEST ACROSS KAUAI
AND OAHU...BUT WILL BE DROPPING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY. SURF ALONG
EAST-FACING SHORES WILL APPROACH WARNING LEVELS TONIGHT...AND WAS
EXPECTED TO RISE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. EVEN IF THE SWELL DROPS
SLIGHTLY...EAST-SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN NEAR WARNING LEVELS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH
SURF WARNING PROBABLY WILL NEED EXTENSION BEYOND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALSO REMAINED IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS PRODUCED BY THE SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND
JIMENA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST
/SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-
OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND
EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...RYSHKO
AVIATION...JACOBSON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 030622
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SPOTTY...BUT LOCALLY
HEAVY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK TRADE WINDS
AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM THE EAST ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THOUGH THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN HOTTER AND MORE
HUMID THAN USUAL. PREVAILING WINDS WILL DIMINISH INTO NEXT WEEK...
LEADING TO STAGNANT CONDITIONS AND INCREASED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AGAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE INSANE
AMOUNTS EARLIER IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER KAUAI COUNTY...SLIGHT
CONVERGENCE IN THE WEAK SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE STATE
CONTINUED TO ENCOURAGE CONVECTION. A SHALLOW MID-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE ISLANDS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE
IGNACIO...AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES...ALSO CONTRIBUTED.

THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BIG ISLAND SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THE
EVENING...AND THOSE OVER THE MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS MAY WELL
MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT SHOWERS LIKELY WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE MORE GENERALLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANOTHER CONVECTIVE
SURGE...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE INTO THE EVENING...WILL OCCUR
AS SEA BREEZES BECOME IMPORTANT AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

BY FRIDAY...A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN OF TROPICAL CYCLONES DRIVING
REGIONAL WEATHER MAY BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE. ALTHOUGH TROPICAL
CYCLONE JIMENA WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH AWAY NOT TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS
DIRECTLY...A SWATH OF NORTHEAST WINDS WILL EXTEND PAST THE NORTH
EDGE OF THE STORM AND OVER THE STATE. GUIDANCE PREDICTED FAIRLY
MODEST WIND SPEEDS...BUT THEY STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING STRONGER
THAN THE CURRENT PREVAILING FLOW. THIS PERIOD OF TRADE WINDS WILL
END BY SUNDAY NIGHT ONCE JIMENA MOVES FAR ENOUGH NORTH...LEAVING
FEEBLE NORTHERLIES IN PLACE...BUT A NUMBER OF SOLUTIONS PREDICTED A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS TO REACH THE ISLANDS IN THE MEANTIME.

STAGNANT FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK WILL PERMIT EVAPORATION TO MOISTEN THE
AIR MASS AGAIN...AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL PREVAIL. CONDITIONS DURING
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK DEPENDED HEAVILY ON THE PRECISE TRACK
OF JIMENA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEE TC SIGMET SERIES TANGO FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO...LOCATED
ABOUT 375 MILES NORTH OF LIHUE AS OF 5 PM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS HAWAII
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY
DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOLOKAI AND OAHU...
SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD KAUAI LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS A
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BAND MOVES SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE STATE. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CARRY CB TOPS UP TO FL450...MVFR TO
ISOL IFR CONDITIONS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ICING AND TURB.

A SEABREEZE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE ONCE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ISLANDS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. MVFR AND
ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION REMAINS FOR SECTIONS OF THE
BIG ISLAND. THIS AIRMET WILL BE CANCELLED LATER THIS EVENING AS
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL AIRMETS FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR EAST-FACING SHORES OF
MOST ISLANDS. THE LARGE SURF WAS DUE TO A MIX OF DECLINING NORTHERLY
SWELL FROM IGNACIO...AND A BUILDING EAST SWELL FROM DISTANT
HURRICANE JIMENA. THE IGNACIO SWELL STILL WAS LARGEST ACROSS KAUAI
AND OAHU...BUT WILL BE DROPPING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY. SURF ALONG
EAST-FACING SHORES WILL APPROACH WARNING LEVELS TONIGHT...AND WAS
EXPECTED TO RISE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. EVEN IF THE SWELL DROPS
SLIGHTLY...EAST-SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN NEAR WARNING LEVELS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH
SURF WARNING PROBABLY WILL NEED EXTENSION BEYOND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALSO REMAINED IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS PRODUCED BY THE SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND
JIMENA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST
/SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-
OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND
EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...RYSHKO
AVIATION...JACOBSON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 030141
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE VERY HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK TRADE WINDS AND
INCREASINGLY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FROM THE EAST
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THOUGH HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST.
WEAK TRADE WINDS MAY HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FLARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
GREATEST ACTIVITY OBSERVED ON MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. THIS
CONVECTION IS BEING TRIGGERED BY DAY TIME HEATING UNDER A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP...RATHER MOIST
PROFILE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT 1.7 TO 2
INCHES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PARKED JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF
KAUAI IS MAINTAINING THE INSTABILITY...WHICH IS HELPING TO PRODUCE
BURSTS OF LIGHTNING ON THE BIG ISLAND. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
TAPER OFF LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH A CONTINUED HEAVY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN FOR MAINLY THE SMALLER ISLANDS
TONIGHT.

SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDER AN UNSTABLE AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS HINTS SUGGESTS
THAT A ZONE OF MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH OF
IGNACIO WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL ISLANDS TONIGHT THEN SHIFT TO THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY. CHANCES OF RAINFALL WILL BE
GREATEST IN THIS ZONE OF WEAK CONVERGENCE...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PARKED JUST WEST OF KAUAI WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
TO KEEP THE THREAT OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS THREAT
WILL BE GREATEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON UNDER MAXIMUM DAY TIME HEATING.

ASIDE FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT...ANOTHER CONCERN
WILL BE THE VERY HUMID CONDITIONS. THE ISLANDS ARE LOCKED UNDER A
TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS HOVERING IN THE MID 70S TO EVEN THE
UPPER 70S AT TIMES. WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...THE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE VERY
UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE OF THE UPPER 90S...AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET BELOW THE UPPER 70S.

AS IGNACIO MOVES FAR NORTH OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
WEAK EASTERLY WINDS AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER
THE ISLANDS FROM THE EAST. WHILE THIS MAY INHIBIT HEAVY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT...IT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF HURRICANE JIMENA. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD BE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PREVENT TRADE WINDS FROM INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEE TC SIGMET SERIES TANGO FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO.

THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN PLAGUED THE ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FOCUSED OVER THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI...NEAR A WEAK CONVERGENCE BAND EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
TC IGNACIO. MOST OF THE CURRENT HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SUCCUMB TO DIURNAL EFFECTS AND START TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN AS THE
CONVERGENCE BAND MENTIONED ABOVE TRACKS WEST AND BECOMES INFLUENCED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED JUST WEST OF KAUAI.

THIS EVENING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. BY LATE TONIGHT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO SPREAD OVER KAUAI. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO CARRY CB TOPS TO FL350-400...MVFR TO ISOL IFR...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF ICING AND TURB.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION REMAINS FOR SECTIONS OF THE
BIG ISLAND AS OF 02Z. THIS SPECIFIC AIRMET WILL BE CANCELLED AS
CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
NEED FOR ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TONIGHT. THESE WILL BE
ISSUED AS NEEDED.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF MOST
ISLANDS. THE LARGE SURF IS DUE TO A MIX OF DECLINING NORTHERLY SWELL
FROM IGNACIO AND A BUILDING EAST SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
JIMENA. THE IGNACIO SWELL REMAINS LARGEST ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU AND
HAS DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ELSEWHERE. NEAR SHORE CDIP BUOYS
SHOWED A STRONG ONSET OF THE EAST SWELL THIS MORNING...BUT WE HAVE
SEEN A TEMPORARY LULL THIS AFTERNOON AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
HAVE DROPPED SLIGHTLY. SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL BE AT
BORDER LINE WARNING LEVELS TONIGHT...WITH AN EXPECTED RISE AGAIN
TOMORROW. THE HIGH SURF WARNING CURRENTLY GOES THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME AS WE
WATCH BUOY TRENDS TONIGHT. EVEN IF THE SWELL DROPS SLIGHTLY...EAST
SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT OR NEAR WARNING LEVELS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS DUE TO THE SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND JIMENA. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY
LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST /SRDHFO/
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI...AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...EATON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 030141
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE VERY HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK TRADE WINDS AND
INCREASINGLY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FROM THE EAST
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THOUGH HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST.
WEAK TRADE WINDS MAY HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FLARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
GREATEST ACTIVITY OBSERVED ON MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. THIS
CONVECTION IS BEING TRIGGERED BY DAY TIME HEATING UNDER A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP...RATHER MOIST
PROFILE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT 1.7 TO 2
INCHES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PARKED JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF
KAUAI IS MAINTAINING THE INSTABILITY...WHICH IS HELPING TO PRODUCE
BURSTS OF LIGHTNING ON THE BIG ISLAND. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
TAPER OFF LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH A CONTINUED HEAVY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN FOR MAINLY THE SMALLER ISLANDS
TONIGHT.

SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDER AN UNSTABLE AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS HINTS SUGGESTS
THAT A ZONE OF MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH OF
IGNACIO WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL ISLANDS TONIGHT THEN SHIFT TO THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY. CHANCES OF RAINFALL WILL BE
GREATEST IN THIS ZONE OF WEAK CONVERGENCE...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PARKED JUST WEST OF KAUAI WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
TO KEEP THE THREAT OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS THREAT
WILL BE GREATEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON UNDER MAXIMUM DAY TIME HEATING.

ASIDE FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT...ANOTHER CONCERN
WILL BE THE VERY HUMID CONDITIONS. THE ISLANDS ARE LOCKED UNDER A
TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS HOVERING IN THE MID 70S TO EVEN THE
UPPER 70S AT TIMES. WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...THE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE VERY
UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE OF THE UPPER 90S...AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET BELOW THE UPPER 70S.

AS IGNACIO MOVES FAR NORTH OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
WEAK EASTERLY WINDS AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER
THE ISLANDS FROM THE EAST. WHILE THIS MAY INHIBIT HEAVY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT...IT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF HURRICANE JIMENA. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD BE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PREVENT TRADE WINDS FROM INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEE TC SIGMET SERIES TANGO FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO.

THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN PLAGUED THE ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FOCUSED OVER THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI...NEAR A WEAK CONVERGENCE BAND EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
TC IGNACIO. MOST OF THE CURRENT HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SUCCUMB TO DIURNAL EFFECTS AND START TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN AS THE
CONVERGENCE BAND MENTIONED ABOVE TRACKS WEST AND BECOMES INFLUENCED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED JUST WEST OF KAUAI.

THIS EVENING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. BY LATE TONIGHT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO SPREAD OVER KAUAI. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO CARRY CB TOPS TO FL350-400...MVFR TO ISOL IFR...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF ICING AND TURB.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION REMAINS FOR SECTIONS OF THE
BIG ISLAND AS OF 02Z. THIS SPECIFIC AIRMET WILL BE CANCELLED AS
CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
NEED FOR ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TONIGHT. THESE WILL BE
ISSUED AS NEEDED.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF MOST
ISLANDS. THE LARGE SURF IS DUE TO A MIX OF DECLINING NORTHERLY SWELL
FROM IGNACIO AND A BUILDING EAST SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
JIMENA. THE IGNACIO SWELL REMAINS LARGEST ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU AND
HAS DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ELSEWHERE. NEAR SHORE CDIP BUOYS
SHOWED A STRONG ONSET OF THE EAST SWELL THIS MORNING...BUT WE HAVE
SEEN A TEMPORARY LULL THIS AFTERNOON AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
HAVE DROPPED SLIGHTLY. SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL BE AT
BORDER LINE WARNING LEVELS TONIGHT...WITH AN EXPECTED RISE AGAIN
TOMORROW. THE HIGH SURF WARNING CURRENTLY GOES THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME AS WE
WATCH BUOY TRENDS TONIGHT. EVEN IF THE SWELL DROPS SLIGHTLY...EAST
SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT OR NEAR WARNING LEVELS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS DUE TO THE SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND JIMENA. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY
LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST /SRDHFO/
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI...AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 030141
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE VERY HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK TRADE WINDS AND
INCREASINGLY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FROM THE EAST
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THOUGH HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST.
WEAK TRADE WINDS MAY HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FLARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
GREATEST ACTIVITY OBSERVED ON MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. THIS
CONVECTION IS BEING TRIGGERED BY DAY TIME HEATING UNDER A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP...RATHER MOIST
PROFILE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT 1.7 TO 2
INCHES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PARKED JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF
KAUAI IS MAINTAINING THE INSTABILITY...WHICH IS HELPING TO PRODUCE
BURSTS OF LIGHTNING ON THE BIG ISLAND. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
TAPER OFF LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH A CONTINUED HEAVY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN FOR MAINLY THE SMALLER ISLANDS
TONIGHT.

SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDER AN UNSTABLE AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS HINTS SUGGESTS
THAT A ZONE OF MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH OF
IGNACIO WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL ISLANDS TONIGHT THEN SHIFT TO THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY. CHANCES OF RAINFALL WILL BE
GREATEST IN THIS ZONE OF WEAK CONVERGENCE...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PARKED JUST WEST OF KAUAI WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
TO KEEP THE THREAT OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS THREAT
WILL BE GREATEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON UNDER MAXIMUM DAY TIME HEATING.

ASIDE FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT...ANOTHER CONCERN
WILL BE THE VERY HUMID CONDITIONS. THE ISLANDS ARE LOCKED UNDER A
TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS HOVERING IN THE MID 70S TO EVEN THE
UPPER 70S AT TIMES. WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...THE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE VERY
UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE OF THE UPPER 90S...AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET BELOW THE UPPER 70S.

AS IGNACIO MOVES FAR NORTH OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
WEAK EASTERLY WINDS AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER
THE ISLANDS FROM THE EAST. WHILE THIS MAY INHIBIT HEAVY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT...IT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF HURRICANE JIMENA. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD BE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PREVENT TRADE WINDS FROM INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEE TC SIGMET SERIES TANGO FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO.

THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN PLAGUED THE ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FOCUSED OVER THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI...NEAR A WEAK CONVERGENCE BAND EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
TC IGNACIO. MOST OF THE CURRENT HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SUCCUMB TO DIURNAL EFFECTS AND START TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN AS THE
CONVERGENCE BAND MENTIONED ABOVE TRACKS WEST AND BECOMES INFLUENCED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED JUST WEST OF KAUAI.

THIS EVENING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. BY LATE TONIGHT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO SPREAD OVER KAUAI. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO CARRY CB TOPS TO FL350-400...MVFR TO ISOL IFR...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF ICING AND TURB.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION REMAINS FOR SECTIONS OF THE
BIG ISLAND AS OF 02Z. THIS SPECIFIC AIRMET WILL BE CANCELLED AS
CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
NEED FOR ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TONIGHT. THESE WILL BE
ISSUED AS NEEDED.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF MOST
ISLANDS. THE LARGE SURF IS DUE TO A MIX OF DECLINING NORTHERLY SWELL
FROM IGNACIO AND A BUILDING EAST SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
JIMENA. THE IGNACIO SWELL REMAINS LARGEST ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU AND
HAS DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ELSEWHERE. NEAR SHORE CDIP BUOYS
SHOWED A STRONG ONSET OF THE EAST SWELL THIS MORNING...BUT WE HAVE
SEEN A TEMPORARY LULL THIS AFTERNOON AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
HAVE DROPPED SLIGHTLY. SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL BE AT
BORDER LINE WARNING LEVELS TONIGHT...WITH AN EXPECTED RISE AGAIN
TOMORROW. THE HIGH SURF WARNING CURRENTLY GOES THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME AS WE
WATCH BUOY TRENDS TONIGHT. EVEN IF THE SWELL DROPS SLIGHTLY...EAST
SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT OR NEAR WARNING LEVELS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS DUE TO THE SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND JIMENA. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY
LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST /SRDHFO/
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI...AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...EATON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 030141
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE VERY HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK TRADE WINDS AND
INCREASINGLY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FROM THE EAST
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THOUGH HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST.
WEAK TRADE WINDS MAY HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FLARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
GREATEST ACTIVITY OBSERVED ON MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. THIS
CONVECTION IS BEING TRIGGERED BY DAY TIME HEATING UNDER A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP...RATHER MOIST
PROFILE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT 1.7 TO 2
INCHES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PARKED JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF
KAUAI IS MAINTAINING THE INSTABILITY...WHICH IS HELPING TO PRODUCE
BURSTS OF LIGHTNING ON THE BIG ISLAND. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
TAPER OFF LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH A CONTINUED HEAVY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN FOR MAINLY THE SMALLER ISLANDS
TONIGHT.

SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDER AN UNSTABLE AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS HINTS SUGGESTS
THAT A ZONE OF MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH OF
IGNACIO WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL ISLANDS TONIGHT THEN SHIFT TO THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY. CHANCES OF RAINFALL WILL BE
GREATEST IN THIS ZONE OF WEAK CONVERGENCE...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PARKED JUST WEST OF KAUAI WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
TO KEEP THE THREAT OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS THREAT
WILL BE GREATEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON UNDER MAXIMUM DAY TIME HEATING.

ASIDE FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT...ANOTHER CONCERN
WILL BE THE VERY HUMID CONDITIONS. THE ISLANDS ARE LOCKED UNDER A
TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS HOVERING IN THE MID 70S TO EVEN THE
UPPER 70S AT TIMES. WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...THE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE VERY
UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE OF THE UPPER 90S...AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET BELOW THE UPPER 70S.

AS IGNACIO MOVES FAR NORTH OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
WEAK EASTERLY WINDS AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER
THE ISLANDS FROM THE EAST. WHILE THIS MAY INHIBIT HEAVY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT...IT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF HURRICANE JIMENA. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD BE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PREVENT TRADE WINDS FROM INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEE TC SIGMET SERIES TANGO FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO.

THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN PLAGUED THE ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FOCUSED OVER THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI...NEAR A WEAK CONVERGENCE BAND EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
TC IGNACIO. MOST OF THE CURRENT HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SUCCUMB TO DIURNAL EFFECTS AND START TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN AS THE
CONVERGENCE BAND MENTIONED ABOVE TRACKS WEST AND BECOMES INFLUENCED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED JUST WEST OF KAUAI.

THIS EVENING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. BY LATE TONIGHT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO SPREAD OVER KAUAI. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO CARRY CB TOPS TO FL350-400...MVFR TO ISOL IFR...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF ICING AND TURB.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION REMAINS FOR SECTIONS OF THE
BIG ISLAND AS OF 02Z. THIS SPECIFIC AIRMET WILL BE CANCELLED AS
CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
NEED FOR ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TONIGHT. THESE WILL BE
ISSUED AS NEEDED.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF MOST
ISLANDS. THE LARGE SURF IS DUE TO A MIX OF DECLINING NORTHERLY SWELL
FROM IGNACIO AND A BUILDING EAST SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
JIMENA. THE IGNACIO SWELL REMAINS LARGEST ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU AND
HAS DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ELSEWHERE. NEAR SHORE CDIP BUOYS
SHOWED A STRONG ONSET OF THE EAST SWELL THIS MORNING...BUT WE HAVE
SEEN A TEMPORARY LULL THIS AFTERNOON AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
HAVE DROPPED SLIGHTLY. SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL BE AT
BORDER LINE WARNING LEVELS TONIGHT...WITH AN EXPECTED RISE AGAIN
TOMORROW. THE HIGH SURF WARNING CURRENTLY GOES THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME AS WE
WATCH BUOY TRENDS TONIGHT. EVEN IF THE SWELL DROPS SLIGHTLY...EAST
SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT OR NEAR WARNING LEVELS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS DUE TO THE SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND JIMENA. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY
LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST /SRDHFO/
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI...AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 021952
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE VERY HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK TRADE WINDS AND
INCREASINGLY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FROM THE EAST
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THOUGH HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST.
WEAK TRADE WINDS MAY HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SPOTTY AND LOCALLY HEAVY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...ALONG WITH CONTINUED VERY
HUMID CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DID BECOME A
LITTLE ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT OVER AND SOUTH OF MAUI COUNTY AS A WEAK
CONVERGENCE ZONE BRIEFLY SET UP TO THE SOUTH OF TROPICAL STORM
IGNACIO...WHICH CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE.
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED THIS MORNING...THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT
THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR MAUI
COUNTY...WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT HIGHEST. MORNING WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE ISLANDS.
WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSER DURING THE DAY...THE
FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE SLOPES OF MOST ISLANDS...WHERE SEA BREEZES WILL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE WEAK DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW.

SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS UNDER A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS HINTS SUGGESTS THAT THE MAX
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL ISLANDS TONIGHT TO
THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES EXCEEDING TWO INCHES WHERE CONVERGENCE IS GREATEST. WE WILL
BE LOOKING AT ADDING A THUNDERSTORM THREAT SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PARKED NEAR KAUAI WILL MAINTAIN INSTABILITY.

ASIDE FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT...ANOTHER CONCERN
WILL BE THE VERY HUMID CONDITIONS. THE ISLANDS ARE LOCKED UNDER A
TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS HOVERING IN THE MID 70S TO EVEN THE
UPPER 70S AT TIMES. WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...THE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE VERY
UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE OF THE UPPER 90S...AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET BELOW THE UPPER 70S.

AS IGNACIO MOVES FAR NORTH OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
WEAK EASTERLY WINDS AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER
THE ISLANDS FROM THE EAST. WHILE THIS MAY INHIBIT HEAVY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT...IT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEE TC SIGMET SERIES TANGO FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO.

TC IGNACIO...APPROX. 250 NM N OF KAUAI...WILL CONTINUE TO DISRUPT
AND GOVERN THE WIND FLOW OVER THE ISLANDS. MODERATE N TO NE WINDS ON
THE WEST SIDE OF IGNACIO ARE EXTENDING JUST WEST OF KAUAI. HOWEVER
OVER THE ISLANDS THE PREDOMINANT BACKGROUND FLOW IS S TO SW. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO REMAIN INTO LATE THURSDAY BEFORE WEAK TRADES TRY
TO MAKE A COMEBACK STARTING NEAR THE BIG ISLAND.

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS OVER THE ISLANDS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY...
NEAR/ALONG AN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
IGNACIO. EXPECT CB TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
BETWEEN FL350-400 AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CARRY ICING AND TURB AND
MVFR TO ISOL IFR CONDITIONS. OTHER PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE
BACKGROUND FLOW WILL HAVE TOPS GENERALLY BETWEEN 080-150...WITH TCU
TOPS BETWEEN FL180-250. SOME SHOWERS MAY BE  HEAVY AT TIMES.

THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT AS OF 20Z. HOWEVER AS
SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSCURATION
MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF MOST
ISLANDS DUE TO A MIX OF DECLINING NORTH TO NORTHEAST SWELL FROM
TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO AND BUILDING EAST SWELL FROM DISTANT
HURRICANE JIMENA. MORNING NEAR SHORE CDIP BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW
COMBINED SEAS IN THE 9 TO 11 FT RANGE WITH THE DECLINING IGNACIO
ENERGY FOCUSED BELOW 14 SECONDS AND THE INCREASING JIMENA SWELL
DOMINATED BY WAVE PERIODS IN EXCESS OF 14 SECONDS. WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR REPORTS AND CAMS IN CASE NORTH SHORE SURF RISES MORE THAN
EXPECTED...BUT WITH THE IGNACIO SWELL DROPPING AS IT SWINGS MORE OUT
OF THE NORTH...WE DO NOT EXPECT A PROLONGED TIME RANGE WITH NORTH
SHORE SURF NEAR THE ADVISORY LEVEL. THE JIMENA SWELL WILL BE LONG
LIVED...SO EVEN THOUGH THE WARNING CURRENTLY ONLY GOES THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT ELEVATED EAST SHORE SURF...POSSIBLY
AT WARNING LEVELS...TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND AND
LIKELY INTO NEXT WEEK.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS DUE TO THE SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND JIMENA. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY
LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST /SRDHFO/
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI...AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 021347
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
340 AM HST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY CONDITIONS AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME
MOSTLY SOUTHERLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JIMENA...WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. A BRIEF RETURN TO DRIER
EASTERLY WINDS IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
IGNACIO WERE MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD WATERS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND
THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL. PASSING SHOWERS WERE ALSO OBSERVED OVER MAUI
COUNTY AND OAHU DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A HIGH ALOFT JUST W
OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...WHILE A TROUGH REMAINS TO THE NW.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD SFC HIGH IS CENTERED FAR N OF THE STATE.

IGNACIO IS STILL BLOCKING THE TRADES WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE ISLAND CHAIN REMAINING WEAK AND GENERALLY FROM THE S/SW. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST ENOUGH TO KEEP GENERATING SHOWERS TODAY AND
THROUGH THU...BUT BOTH MIMIC AND MODEL ANALYSES SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING INTO THE ISLAND CHAIN...ESPECIALLY THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. THIS IS PROBABLY RELATED TO SUBSIDENCE TAKING PLACE
S OF IGNACIO. NEVERTHELESS...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE E HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN WHERE HIGHER PWATS RESIDE.

OVERALL...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP CHANGING AS IGNACIO MOVES
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL
BRING PERIODS OF SW OR S WINDS COLLIDING WITH THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN SOME TERRAIN ANCHORING AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AT
TIMES. THE WEAK WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR VERY HUMID CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE IN ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES...
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S...AND OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES HOVERING THE UPPER 70S. THEREFORE...EXPECT GENERALLY
MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

IGNACIO SHOULD BE LIFTING N AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS BY
FRI...BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY EVEN
THROUGH SAT....THUS EXPECT THE VERY HUMID CONDITIONS AND SHOWERY
WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST WILL BE THE DECREASE IN CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN
AFTER THU AS THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT
AND FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE E...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN AIRMASS STABILITY.

DRIER EASTERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW IN THE EXTENDED. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF HURRICANE JIMENA...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY TRACK FAR E AND NE OF THE ALOHA STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

SEE TC SIGMET SERIES TANGO FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO.

BANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOVING FROM W TO E...WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH THIS COMING EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS
MOST OF THE BIG ISLAND BY MID MORNING. AN AIRMET FOR MTN OBSC HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD MOUNTAINS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND
WILL LIKELY REMAIN NECESSARY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE AIRMASS OVER THE STATE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE CREATING A
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE STATE. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS MORNING IS ONLY SLIGHT BUT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST EAST FACING SHORES
OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY AS SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND JIMENA
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD HAWAIIAN WATERS. SOME OF THE
INCOMING EASTERLY SWELLS FROM JIMENA COULD ALSO IMPACT SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
SWELL PEAKING TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND REMAINING STEADY THROUGH
THURSDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE THE DIRECTION START TO
BACK TO A MORE EAST-NORTHEAST DIRECTION AS JIMENA GAINS MORE
LATITUDE...AND EVEN SEE AN INCREASE IN HEIGHT AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE STATE. THE HIGH SURF WARNING COULD BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND OR LONGER.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS DUE TO THE SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND JIMENA. THIS
ADVISORY MAY BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND OR LONGER AS SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND
FORECAST /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI...AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...BEDAL










000
FXHW60 PHFO 021347
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
340 AM HST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY CONDITIONS AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME
MOSTLY SOUTHERLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JIMENA...WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. A BRIEF RETURN TO DRIER
EASTERLY WINDS IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
IGNACIO WERE MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD WATERS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND
THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL. PASSING SHOWERS WERE ALSO OBSERVED OVER MAUI
COUNTY AND OAHU DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A HIGH ALOFT JUST W
OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...WHILE A TROUGH REMAINS TO THE NW.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD SFC HIGH IS CENTERED FAR N OF THE STATE.

IGNACIO IS STILL BLOCKING THE TRADES WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE ISLAND CHAIN REMAINING WEAK AND GENERALLY FROM THE S/SW. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST ENOUGH TO KEEP GENERATING SHOWERS TODAY AND
THROUGH THU...BUT BOTH MIMIC AND MODEL ANALYSES SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING INTO THE ISLAND CHAIN...ESPECIALLY THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. THIS IS PROBABLY RELATED TO SUBSIDENCE TAKING PLACE
S OF IGNACIO. NEVERTHELESS...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE E HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN WHERE HIGHER PWATS RESIDE.

OVERALL...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP CHANGING AS IGNACIO MOVES
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL
BRING PERIODS OF SW OR S WINDS COLLIDING WITH THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN SOME TERRAIN ANCHORING AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AT
TIMES. THE WEAK WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR VERY HUMID CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE IN ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES...
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S...AND OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES HOVERING THE UPPER 70S. THEREFORE...EXPECT GENERALLY
MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

IGNACIO SHOULD BE LIFTING N AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS BY
FRI...BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY EVEN
THROUGH SAT....THUS EXPECT THE VERY HUMID CONDITIONS AND SHOWERY
WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST WILL BE THE DECREASE IN CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN
AFTER THU AS THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT
AND FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE E...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN AIRMASS STABILITY.

DRIER EASTERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW IN THE EXTENDED. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF HURRICANE JIMENA...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY TRACK FAR E AND NE OF THE ALOHA STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

SEE TC SIGMET SERIES TANGO FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO.

BANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOVING FROM W TO E...WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH THIS COMING EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS
MOST OF THE BIG ISLAND BY MID MORNING. AN AIRMET FOR MTN OBSC HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD MOUNTAINS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND
WILL LIKELY REMAIN NECESSARY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE AIRMASS OVER THE STATE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE CREATING A
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE STATE. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS MORNING IS ONLY SLIGHT BUT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST EAST FACING SHORES
OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY AS SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND JIMENA
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD HAWAIIAN WATERS. SOME OF THE
INCOMING EASTERLY SWELLS FROM JIMENA COULD ALSO IMPACT SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
SWELL PEAKING TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND REMAINING STEADY THROUGH
THURSDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE THE DIRECTION START TO
BACK TO A MORE EAST-NORTHEAST DIRECTION AS JIMENA GAINS MORE
LATITUDE...AND EVEN SEE AN INCREASE IN HEIGHT AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE STATE. THE HIGH SURF WARNING COULD BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND OR LONGER.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS DUE TO THE SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND JIMENA. THIS
ADVISORY MAY BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND OR LONGER AS SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND
FORECAST /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI...AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...BEDAL











000
FXHW60 PHFO 021347
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
340 AM HST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY CONDITIONS AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME
MOSTLY SOUTHERLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JIMENA...WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. A BRIEF RETURN TO DRIER
EASTERLY WINDS IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
IGNACIO WERE MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD WATERS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND
THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL. PASSING SHOWERS WERE ALSO OBSERVED OVER MAUI
COUNTY AND OAHU DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A HIGH ALOFT JUST W
OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...WHILE A TROUGH REMAINS TO THE NW.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD SFC HIGH IS CENTERED FAR N OF THE STATE.

IGNACIO IS STILL BLOCKING THE TRADES WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE ISLAND CHAIN REMAINING WEAK AND GENERALLY FROM THE S/SW. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST ENOUGH TO KEEP GENERATING SHOWERS TODAY AND
THROUGH THU...BUT BOTH MIMIC AND MODEL ANALYSES SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING INTO THE ISLAND CHAIN...ESPECIALLY THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. THIS IS PROBABLY RELATED TO SUBSIDENCE TAKING PLACE
S OF IGNACIO. NEVERTHELESS...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE E HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN WHERE HIGHER PWATS RESIDE.

OVERALL...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP CHANGING AS IGNACIO MOVES
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL
BRING PERIODS OF SW OR S WINDS COLLIDING WITH THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN SOME TERRAIN ANCHORING AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AT
TIMES. THE WEAK WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR VERY HUMID CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE IN ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES...
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S...AND OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES HOVERING THE UPPER 70S. THEREFORE...EXPECT GENERALLY
MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

IGNACIO SHOULD BE LIFTING N AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS BY
FRI...BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY EVEN
THROUGH SAT....THUS EXPECT THE VERY HUMID CONDITIONS AND SHOWERY
WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST WILL BE THE DECREASE IN CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN
AFTER THU AS THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT
AND FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE E...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN AIRMASS STABILITY.

DRIER EASTERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW IN THE EXTENDED. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF HURRICANE JIMENA...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY TRACK FAR E AND NE OF THE ALOHA STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

SEE TC SIGMET SERIES TANGO FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO.

BANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOVING FROM W TO E...WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH THIS COMING EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS
MOST OF THE BIG ISLAND BY MID MORNING. AN AIRMET FOR MTN OBSC HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD MOUNTAINS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND
WILL LIKELY REMAIN NECESSARY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE AIRMASS OVER THE STATE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE CREATING A
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE STATE. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS MORNING IS ONLY SLIGHT BUT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST EAST FACING SHORES
OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY AS SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND JIMENA
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD HAWAIIAN WATERS. SOME OF THE
INCOMING EASTERLY SWELLS FROM JIMENA COULD ALSO IMPACT SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
SWELL PEAKING TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND REMAINING STEADY THROUGH
THURSDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE THE DIRECTION START TO
BACK TO A MORE EAST-NORTHEAST DIRECTION AS JIMENA GAINS MORE
LATITUDE...AND EVEN SEE AN INCREASE IN HEIGHT AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE STATE. THE HIGH SURF WARNING COULD BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND OR LONGER.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS DUE TO THE SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND JIMENA. THIS
ADVISORY MAY BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND OR LONGER AS SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND
FORECAST /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI...AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...BEDAL










000
FXHW60 PHFO 021347
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
340 AM HST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY CONDITIONS AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME
MOSTLY SOUTHERLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JIMENA...WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. A BRIEF RETURN TO DRIER
EASTERLY WINDS IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
IGNACIO WERE MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD WATERS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND
THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL. PASSING SHOWERS WERE ALSO OBSERVED OVER MAUI
COUNTY AND OAHU DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A HIGH ALOFT JUST W
OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...WHILE A TROUGH REMAINS TO THE NW.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD SFC HIGH IS CENTERED FAR N OF THE STATE.

IGNACIO IS STILL BLOCKING THE TRADES WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE ISLAND CHAIN REMAINING WEAK AND GENERALLY FROM THE S/SW. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST ENOUGH TO KEEP GENERATING SHOWERS TODAY AND
THROUGH THU...BUT BOTH MIMIC AND MODEL ANALYSES SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING INTO THE ISLAND CHAIN...ESPECIALLY THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. THIS IS PROBABLY RELATED TO SUBSIDENCE TAKING PLACE
S OF IGNACIO. NEVERTHELESS...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE E HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN WHERE HIGHER PWATS RESIDE.

OVERALL...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP CHANGING AS IGNACIO MOVES
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL
BRING PERIODS OF SW OR S WINDS COLLIDING WITH THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN SOME TERRAIN ANCHORING AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AT
TIMES. THE WEAK WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR VERY HUMID CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE IN ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES...
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S...AND OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES HOVERING THE UPPER 70S. THEREFORE...EXPECT GENERALLY
MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

IGNACIO SHOULD BE LIFTING N AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS BY
FRI...BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY EVEN
THROUGH SAT....THUS EXPECT THE VERY HUMID CONDITIONS AND SHOWERY
WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST WILL BE THE DECREASE IN CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN
AFTER THU AS THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT
AND FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE E...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN AIRMASS STABILITY.

DRIER EASTERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW IN THE EXTENDED. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF HURRICANE JIMENA...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY TRACK FAR E AND NE OF THE ALOHA STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

SEE TC SIGMET SERIES TANGO FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO.

BANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOVING FROM W TO E...WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH THIS COMING EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS
MOST OF THE BIG ISLAND BY MID MORNING. AN AIRMET FOR MTN OBSC HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD MOUNTAINS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND
WILL LIKELY REMAIN NECESSARY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE AIRMASS OVER THE STATE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE CREATING A
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE STATE. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS MORNING IS ONLY SLIGHT BUT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST EAST FACING SHORES
OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY AS SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND JIMENA
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD HAWAIIAN WATERS. SOME OF THE
INCOMING EASTERLY SWELLS FROM JIMENA COULD ALSO IMPACT SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
SWELL PEAKING TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND REMAINING STEADY THROUGH
THURSDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE THE DIRECTION START TO
BACK TO A MORE EAST-NORTHEAST DIRECTION AS JIMENA GAINS MORE
LATITUDE...AND EVEN SEE AN INCREASE IN HEIGHT AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE STATE. THE HIGH SURF WARNING COULD BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND OR LONGER.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS DUE TO THE SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND JIMENA. THIS
ADVISORY MAY BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND OR LONGER AS SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND
FORECAST /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI...AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...BEDAL











000
FXHW60 PHFO 020630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMID CONDITIONS AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME
MOSTLY SOUTHERLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JIMENA...WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. A BRIEF RETURN TO DRIER
EASTERLY WINDS IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 8 PM HST...TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO WAS LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES NE
OF OAHU WITH SOME OF ITS RAIN BANDS MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD
COASTAL WATERS. EARLIER IN THE EVENING...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED SOME LINES OF SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER CIRCULATION
OF IGNACIO...BRINGING SOME HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SE SLOPES OF THE BIG
ISLAND...AS WELL AS BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS OAHU.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A HIGH ALOFT TO THE W OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...WHILE A TROUGH REMAINS TO THE NW.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD SFC HIGH IS CENTERED FAR N OF THE STATE.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN REMAINS WEAK AND
GENERALLY FROM THE SW AS IGNACIO KEEPS BLOCKING THE TRADES AND
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS S OF ITS CENTER. THE AIRMASS REMAINS
MOIST ENOUGH TO KEEP GENERATING SHOWERS TONIGHT...BUT BOTH MIMIC AND
MODEL ANALYSES SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING INTO THE
ISLAND CHAIN...ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THIS IS PROBABLY
RELATED TO SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING S OF IGNACIO. NEVERTHELESS...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BIG ISLAND WHERE HIGHER PWATS RESIDE.

OVERALL...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP CHANGING AS IGNACIO MOVES
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL
BRING PERIODS OF SW OR S WINDS COLLIDING WITH THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN SOME TERRAIN ANCHORING AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AT
TIMES. THE WEAK WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR VERY HUMID CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE IN ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES...
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S...AND OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES HOVERING THE UPPER 70S. THEREFORE...EXPECT GENERALLY
MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

IGNACIO SHOULD BE LIFTING N AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS BY
FRI...BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY EVEN
THROUGH SAT....THUS EXPECT THE VERY HUMID CONDITIONS AND SHOWERY
WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST WILL BE THE DECREASE IN CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN
AFTER THU AS THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT
AND FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE E...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN AIRMASS STABILITY.

DRIER EASTERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW IN THE EXTENDED. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF HURRICANE JIMENA...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY TRACK FAR E AND NE OF THE ALOHA STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

SEE TC SIGMET SERIES TANGO FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO.

BANDS OF SHOWERS PASSING OVER KAUAI AND OAHU WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND MOVE INTO MAUI COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ON THE BIG ISLAND WILL TAPER OFF BY MORNING ONLY TO
REDEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ISOL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
PASSING SHOWERS OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALL AREAS.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION EAST SIDE BIG ISLAND WILL
LIKELY BE CANCELLED LATER THIS EVENING...BUT MAY BE NECESSARY AGAIN
ON TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
MINIMAL...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS NEAR IGNACIO.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST EAST FACING SHORES
OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY AS SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND JIMENA
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD HAWAIIAN WATERS. SOME OF THE
INCOMING EASTERLY SWELLS FROM JIMENA COULD ALSO IMPACT SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
SWELL BUILDING THROUGH TONIGHT...PEAKING WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND REMAINING STEADY THROUGH THURSDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK...WE SHOULD
SEE THE DIRECTION START TO BACK TO A MORE EAST-NORTHEAST DIRECTION
AS JIMENA GAINS MORE LATITUDE...AND EVEN SEE AN INCREASE IN HEIGHT
AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE STATE. THE HIGH SURF WARNING COULD BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND OR LONGER.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS DUE TO THE SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND JIMENA. THIS
ADVISORY MAY ALSO NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND OR LONGER
AS SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND
FORECAST /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI...AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...BEDAL








000
FXHW60 PHFO 020630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMID CONDITIONS AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME
MOSTLY SOUTHERLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JIMENA...WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. A BRIEF RETURN TO DRIER
EASTERLY WINDS IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 8 PM HST...TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO WAS LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES NE
OF OAHU WITH SOME OF ITS RAIN BANDS MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD
COASTAL WATERS. EARLIER IN THE EVENING...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED SOME LINES OF SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER CIRCULATION
OF IGNACIO...BRINGING SOME HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SE SLOPES OF THE BIG
ISLAND...AS WELL AS BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS OAHU.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A HIGH ALOFT TO THE W OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...WHILE A TROUGH REMAINS TO THE NW.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD SFC HIGH IS CENTERED FAR N OF THE STATE.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN REMAINS WEAK AND
GENERALLY FROM THE SW AS IGNACIO KEEPS BLOCKING THE TRADES AND
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS S OF ITS CENTER. THE AIRMASS REMAINS
MOIST ENOUGH TO KEEP GENERATING SHOWERS TONIGHT...BUT BOTH MIMIC AND
MODEL ANALYSES SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING INTO THE
ISLAND CHAIN...ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THIS IS PROBABLY
RELATED TO SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING S OF IGNACIO. NEVERTHELESS...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BIG ISLAND WHERE HIGHER PWATS RESIDE.

OVERALL...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP CHANGING AS IGNACIO MOVES
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL
BRING PERIODS OF SW OR S WINDS COLLIDING WITH THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN SOME TERRAIN ANCHORING AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AT
TIMES. THE WEAK WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR VERY HUMID CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE IN ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES...
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S...AND OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES HOVERING THE UPPER 70S. THEREFORE...EXPECT GENERALLY
MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

IGNACIO SHOULD BE LIFTING N AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS BY
FRI...BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY EVEN
THROUGH SAT....THUS EXPECT THE VERY HUMID CONDITIONS AND SHOWERY
WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST WILL BE THE DECREASE IN CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN
AFTER THU AS THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT
AND FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE E...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN AIRMASS STABILITY.

DRIER EASTERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW IN THE EXTENDED. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF HURRICANE JIMENA...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY TRACK FAR E AND NE OF THE ALOHA STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

SEE TC SIGMET SERIES TANGO FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO.

BANDS OF SHOWERS PASSING OVER KAUAI AND OAHU WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND MOVE INTO MAUI COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ON THE BIG ISLAND WILL TAPER OFF BY MORNING ONLY TO
REDEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ISOL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
PASSING SHOWERS OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALL AREAS.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION EAST SIDE BIG ISLAND WILL
LIKELY BE CANCELLED LATER THIS EVENING...BUT MAY BE NECESSARY AGAIN
ON TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
MINIMAL...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS NEAR IGNACIO.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST EAST FACING SHORES
OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY AS SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND JIMENA
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD HAWAIIAN WATERS. SOME OF THE
INCOMING EASTERLY SWELLS FROM JIMENA COULD ALSO IMPACT SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
SWELL BUILDING THROUGH TONIGHT...PEAKING WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND REMAINING STEADY THROUGH THURSDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK...WE SHOULD
SEE THE DIRECTION START TO BACK TO A MORE EAST-NORTHEAST DIRECTION
AS JIMENA GAINS MORE LATITUDE...AND EVEN SEE AN INCREASE IN HEIGHT
AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE STATE. THE HIGH SURF WARNING COULD BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND OR LONGER.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS DUE TO THE SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND JIMENA. THIS
ADVISORY MAY ALSO NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND OR LONGER
AS SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND
FORECAST /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI...AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...BEDAL








000
FXHW60 PHFO 020630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMID CONDITIONS AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME
MOSTLY SOUTHERLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JIMENA...WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. A BRIEF RETURN TO DRIER
EASTERLY WINDS IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 8 PM HST...TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO WAS LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES NE
OF OAHU WITH SOME OF ITS RAIN BANDS MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD
COASTAL WATERS. EARLIER IN THE EVENING...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED SOME LINES OF SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER CIRCULATION
OF IGNACIO...BRINGING SOME HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SE SLOPES OF THE BIG
ISLAND...AS WELL AS BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS OAHU.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A HIGH ALOFT TO THE W OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...WHILE A TROUGH REMAINS TO THE NW.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD SFC HIGH IS CENTERED FAR N OF THE STATE.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN REMAINS WEAK AND
GENERALLY FROM THE SW AS IGNACIO KEEPS BLOCKING THE TRADES AND
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS S OF ITS CENTER. THE AIRMASS REMAINS
MOIST ENOUGH TO KEEP GENERATING SHOWERS TONIGHT...BUT BOTH MIMIC AND
MODEL ANALYSES SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING INTO THE
ISLAND CHAIN...ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THIS IS PROBABLY
RELATED TO SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING S OF IGNACIO. NEVERTHELESS...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BIG ISLAND WHERE HIGHER PWATS RESIDE.

OVERALL...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP CHANGING AS IGNACIO MOVES
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL
BRING PERIODS OF SW OR S WINDS COLLIDING WITH THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN SOME TERRAIN ANCHORING AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AT
TIMES. THE WEAK WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR VERY HUMID CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE IN ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES...
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S...AND OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES HOVERING THE UPPER 70S. THEREFORE...EXPECT GENERALLY
MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

IGNACIO SHOULD BE LIFTING N AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS BY
FRI...BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY EVEN
THROUGH SAT....THUS EXPECT THE VERY HUMID CONDITIONS AND SHOWERY
WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST WILL BE THE DECREASE IN CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN
AFTER THU AS THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT
AND FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE E...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN AIRMASS STABILITY.

DRIER EASTERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW IN THE EXTENDED. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF HURRICANE JIMENA...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY TRACK FAR E AND NE OF THE ALOHA STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

SEE TC SIGMET SERIES TANGO FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO.

BANDS OF SHOWERS PASSING OVER KAUAI AND OAHU WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND MOVE INTO MAUI COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ON THE BIG ISLAND WILL TAPER OFF BY MORNING ONLY TO
REDEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ISOL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
PASSING SHOWERS OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALL AREAS.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION EAST SIDE BIG ISLAND WILL
LIKELY BE CANCELLED LATER THIS EVENING...BUT MAY BE NECESSARY AGAIN
ON TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
MINIMAL...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS NEAR IGNACIO.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST EAST FACING SHORES
OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY AS SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND JIMENA
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD HAWAIIAN WATERS. SOME OF THE
INCOMING EASTERLY SWELLS FROM JIMENA COULD ALSO IMPACT SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
SWELL BUILDING THROUGH TONIGHT...PEAKING WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND REMAINING STEADY THROUGH THURSDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK...WE SHOULD
SEE THE DIRECTION START TO BACK TO A MORE EAST-NORTHEAST DIRECTION
AS JIMENA GAINS MORE LATITUDE...AND EVEN SEE AN INCREASE IN HEIGHT
AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE STATE. THE HIGH SURF WARNING COULD BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND OR LONGER.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS DUE TO THE SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND JIMENA. THIS
ADVISORY MAY ALSO NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND OR LONGER
AS SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND
FORECAST /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI...AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...BEDAL







000
FXHW60 PHFO 020630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMID CONDITIONS AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME
MOSTLY SOUTHERLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JIMENA...WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. A BRIEF RETURN TO DRIER
EASTERLY WINDS IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 8 PM HST...TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO WAS LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES NE
OF OAHU WITH SOME OF ITS RAIN BANDS MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD
COASTAL WATERS. EARLIER IN THE EVENING...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED SOME LINES OF SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER CIRCULATION
OF IGNACIO...BRINGING SOME HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SE SLOPES OF THE BIG
ISLAND...AS WELL AS BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS OAHU.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A HIGH ALOFT TO THE W OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...WHILE A TROUGH REMAINS TO THE NW.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD SFC HIGH IS CENTERED FAR N OF THE STATE.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN REMAINS WEAK AND
GENERALLY FROM THE SW AS IGNACIO KEEPS BLOCKING THE TRADES AND
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS S OF ITS CENTER. THE AIRMASS REMAINS
MOIST ENOUGH TO KEEP GENERATING SHOWERS TONIGHT...BUT BOTH MIMIC AND
MODEL ANALYSES SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING INTO THE
ISLAND CHAIN...ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THIS IS PROBABLY
RELATED TO SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING S OF IGNACIO. NEVERTHELESS...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BIG ISLAND WHERE HIGHER PWATS RESIDE.

OVERALL...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP CHANGING AS IGNACIO MOVES
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL
BRING PERIODS OF SW OR S WINDS COLLIDING WITH THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN SOME TERRAIN ANCHORING AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AT
TIMES. THE WEAK WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR VERY HUMID CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE IN ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES...
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S...AND OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES HOVERING THE UPPER 70S. THEREFORE...EXPECT GENERALLY
MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

IGNACIO SHOULD BE LIFTING N AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS BY
FRI...BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY EVEN
THROUGH SAT....THUS EXPECT THE VERY HUMID CONDITIONS AND SHOWERY
WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST WILL BE THE DECREASE IN CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN
AFTER THU AS THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT
AND FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE E...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN AIRMASS STABILITY.

DRIER EASTERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW IN THE EXTENDED. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF HURRICANE JIMENA...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY TRACK FAR E AND NE OF THE ALOHA STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

SEE TC SIGMET SERIES TANGO FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO.

BANDS OF SHOWERS PASSING OVER KAUAI AND OAHU WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND MOVE INTO MAUI COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ON THE BIG ISLAND WILL TAPER OFF BY MORNING ONLY TO
REDEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ISOL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
PASSING SHOWERS OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALL AREAS.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION EAST SIDE BIG ISLAND WILL
LIKELY BE CANCELLED LATER THIS EVENING...BUT MAY BE NECESSARY AGAIN
ON TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
MINIMAL...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS NEAR IGNACIO.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST EAST FACING SHORES
OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY AS SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND JIMENA
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD HAWAIIAN WATERS. SOME OF THE
INCOMING EASTERLY SWELLS FROM JIMENA COULD ALSO IMPACT SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
SWELL BUILDING THROUGH TONIGHT...PEAKING WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND REMAINING STEADY THROUGH THURSDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK...WE SHOULD
SEE THE DIRECTION START TO BACK TO A MORE EAST-NORTHEAST DIRECTION
AS JIMENA GAINS MORE LATITUDE...AND EVEN SEE AN INCREASE IN HEIGHT
AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE STATE. THE HIGH SURF WARNING COULD BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND OR LONGER.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS DUE TO THE SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND JIMENA. THIS
ADVISORY MAY ALSO NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND OR LONGER
AS SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND
FORECAST /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI...AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...BEDAL







000
FXHW60 PHFO 020231
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WITH SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS...MAINLY EACH
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE
IN THE WEEK. THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK
OF HURRICANE JIMENA WELL NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...BUT A BRIEF RETURN
TO DRIER EASTERLY WINDS IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HURRICANE IGNACIO IS LOCATED LESS THAN 300 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE...WITH OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT APPARENT ON RADAR
APPROACHING THE WINDWARD COASTAL WATERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
HIGH WEST OF THE STATE WITH A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. A SURFACE
HIGH IS LOCATED FAR NORTH OF THE STATE...THOUGH IGNACIO INTERRUPTS
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN US AND THE HIGH. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATERS RANGING FROM 1.67 INCHES IN LIHUE TO 2.00 INCHES
IN HILO. A WEAK INVERSION IS ALSO NOTED NEAR 14KFT AT LIHUE...WITH
DRIER AIR ABOVE. EARLY AFTERNOON MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY IS TOO MOIST COMPARED TO THE SOUNDINGS...BUT DOES SHOW
QUALITATIVELY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS...WITH A
BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND ALSO NORTHEAST NEAR
IGNACIO.

THE DRIER AIR AND WEAK ELEVATED INVERSION OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS
ARE PROBABLY RELATED TO SUBSIDENCE OUTSIDE OF IGNACIO. THIS HAS
HELPED TO LIMITED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE SMALLER
ISLANDS...THOUGH SOME MOISTURE BANDS IS STARTING TO APPROACH KAUAI
AND OAHU. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
TOTALS GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OF LESS. HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ONLY FORMED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHEAST-EAST SECTIONS OF THE
BIG ISLAND...WELL INTO THE HIGHER MOISTURE PLUME AND UNSTABLE AIR.
THIS CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. THE LARGE SCALE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO BACK THROUGH THE DAY...WITH NORTH WINDS ON
THE KAUAI VAD WIND PROFILE...NORTHWEST ON THE MOLOKAI VWP...AND
SOUTHWEST ON THE KOHALA AND SOUTH BIG ISLAND RADARS. THIS WIND
PATTERN MAY SETUP A CONVERGENCE BAND TO THE WEST OF THE BIG ISLAND
THAT MAY ENHANCE CLOUDS/SHOWERS ACROSS WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE
LEEWARD SECTIONS OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

ASIDE FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT...ANOTHER CONCERN
WILL BE THE VERY HUMID CONDITIONS. THE ISLANDS ARE LOCKED UNDER A
TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS HOVERING IN THE MID 70S TO EVEN THE
UPPER 70S AT TIMES. WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...THE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE VERY
UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE OF THE UPPER 90S...AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET BELOW THE UPPER 70S.

IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED RUN OF VERY HUMID CONDITIONS AND
SPOTTY LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. SIMILAR TEMPS AND HUMIDITY CONDITIONS
WILL HOLD INTO SATURDAY AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OFFER NO RELIEF.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER HOLDS IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH NO INVERSION AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE ISLANDS. AS A
RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND WE WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING CONVERGENCE ZONE
PRODUCING MORE ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE
FORECAST AFTER THURSDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY OVER
THE ISLANDS FROM THE EAST.

DRIER EASTERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW IN THE EXTENDED. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF HURRICANE JIMENA...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY TRACK FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEE TC SIGMET SERIES TANGO FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO.

SMALLER ISLANDS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY QUITE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE BIG ISLAND ON THE OVERHAND
HAS SEEN THUNDERSTORMS PULSE UP AROUND THE ISLAND WITH HIGHEST
CONCENTRATION JUST SOUTH OF HILO NEAR MOUNTAIN VIEW. CB TOPS ON
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE REACHING TOPS NEAR FL400. AIRMET SIERRA IS
POSTED FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND.
THE PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET AND THE AIRMET WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED.

OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN MINIMAL...EXCEPT
IN THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS NEAR IGNACIO. A SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AREA MORE LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE AS IGNACIO MOVES NW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LARGE SWELL FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO CAUSED PROBLEMS IN A NUMBER
OF LOCATIONS...WITH DEBRIS WASHED ACROSS ROADS ON THE BIG ISLAND AND
OAHU AND REPORTS OF UP TO 20 FOOT SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI. THIS SWELL HAS BACKED MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AND ALSO
LOWERED IN HEIGHT AND PERIOD...AS IGNACIO IS PASSING NORTH OF THE
STATE. SEAS AT NORTHERN AND WINDWARD CDIP BUOYS HAVE LOWER TO 8-10
FEET THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A NEW EASTERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE JIMENA
SHOULD FILL IN SHORTLY. THIS SWELL WILL TAKE US BACK TO 090/100
DEGREE DIRECTION...WHICH WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI MOST DIRECTLY. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SWELL
BUILDING THROUGH THE NIGHT...PEAKING WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
REMAINING STEADY THROUGH THURSDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE
THE DIRECTION START TO BACK TO A MORE EAST-NORTHEAST DIRECTION AS
JIMENA GAINS MORE LATITUDE...AND EVEN SEE AN INCREASE IN HEIGHT AS
IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE STATE. BECAUSE OF THE NEW SWELL...WE HAVE
EXTENDED THE HIGH SURF WARNING. THE NEW WARNING RUNS THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT WE COULD EVENTUALLY END UP EXTENDING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND OR LONGER.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS DUE TO THE SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND JIMENA. THIS
ADVISORY MAY ALSO NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND OR LONGER
AS SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND
FORECAST /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI...AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 020231
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WITH SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS...MAINLY EACH
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE
IN THE WEEK. THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK
OF HURRICANE JIMENA WELL NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...BUT A BRIEF RETURN
TO DRIER EASTERLY WINDS IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HURRICANE IGNACIO IS LOCATED LESS THAN 300 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE...WITH OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT APPARENT ON RADAR
APPROACHING THE WINDWARD COASTAL WATERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
HIGH WEST OF THE STATE WITH A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. A SURFACE
HIGH IS LOCATED FAR NORTH OF THE STATE...THOUGH IGNACIO INTERRUPTS
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN US AND THE HIGH. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATERS RANGING FROM 1.67 INCHES IN LIHUE TO 2.00 INCHES
IN HILO. A WEAK INVERSION IS ALSO NOTED NEAR 14KFT AT LIHUE...WITH
DRIER AIR ABOVE. EARLY AFTERNOON MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY IS TOO MOIST COMPARED TO THE SOUNDINGS...BUT DOES SHOW
QUALITATIVELY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS...WITH A
BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND ALSO NORTHEAST NEAR
IGNACIO.

THE DRIER AIR AND WEAK ELEVATED INVERSION OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS
ARE PROBABLY RELATED TO SUBSIDENCE OUTSIDE OF IGNACIO. THIS HAS
HELPED TO LIMITED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE SMALLER
ISLANDS...THOUGH SOME MOISTURE BANDS IS STARTING TO APPROACH KAUAI
AND OAHU. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
TOTALS GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OF LESS. HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ONLY FORMED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHEAST-EAST SECTIONS OF THE
BIG ISLAND...WELL INTO THE HIGHER MOISTURE PLUME AND UNSTABLE AIR.
THIS CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. THE LARGE SCALE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO BACK THROUGH THE DAY...WITH NORTH WINDS ON
THE KAUAI VAD WIND PROFILE...NORTHWEST ON THE MOLOKAI VWP...AND
SOUTHWEST ON THE KOHALA AND SOUTH BIG ISLAND RADARS. THIS WIND
PATTERN MAY SETUP A CONVERGENCE BAND TO THE WEST OF THE BIG ISLAND
THAT MAY ENHANCE CLOUDS/SHOWERS ACROSS WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE
LEEWARD SECTIONS OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

ASIDE FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT...ANOTHER CONCERN
WILL BE THE VERY HUMID CONDITIONS. THE ISLANDS ARE LOCKED UNDER A
TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS HOVERING IN THE MID 70S TO EVEN THE
UPPER 70S AT TIMES. WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...THE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE VERY
UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE OF THE UPPER 90S...AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET BELOW THE UPPER 70S.

IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED RUN OF VERY HUMID CONDITIONS AND
SPOTTY LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. SIMILAR TEMPS AND HUMIDITY CONDITIONS
WILL HOLD INTO SATURDAY AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OFFER NO RELIEF.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER HOLDS IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH NO INVERSION AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE ISLANDS. AS A
RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND WE WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING CONVERGENCE ZONE
PRODUCING MORE ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE
FORECAST AFTER THURSDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY OVER
THE ISLANDS FROM THE EAST.

DRIER EASTERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW IN THE EXTENDED. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF HURRICANE JIMENA...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY TRACK FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEE TC SIGMET SERIES TANGO FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO.

SMALLER ISLANDS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY QUITE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE BIG ISLAND ON THE OVERHAND
HAS SEEN THUNDERSTORMS PULSE UP AROUND THE ISLAND WITH HIGHEST
CONCENTRATION JUST SOUTH OF HILO NEAR MOUNTAIN VIEW. CB TOPS ON
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE REACHING TOPS NEAR FL400. AIRMET SIERRA IS
POSTED FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND.
THE PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET AND THE AIRMET WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED.

OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN MINIMAL...EXCEPT
IN THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS NEAR IGNACIO. A SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AREA MORE LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE AS IGNACIO MOVES NW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LARGE SWELL FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO CAUSED PROBLEMS IN A NUMBER
OF LOCATIONS...WITH DEBRIS WASHED ACROSS ROADS ON THE BIG ISLAND AND
OAHU AND REPORTS OF UP TO 20 FOOT SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI. THIS SWELL HAS BACKED MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AND ALSO
LOWERED IN HEIGHT AND PERIOD...AS IGNACIO IS PASSING NORTH OF THE
STATE. SEAS AT NORTHERN AND WINDWARD CDIP BUOYS HAVE LOWER TO 8-10
FEET THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A NEW EASTERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE JIMENA
SHOULD FILL IN SHORTLY. THIS SWELL WILL TAKE US BACK TO 090/100
DEGREE DIRECTION...WHICH WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI MOST DIRECTLY. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SWELL
BUILDING THROUGH THE NIGHT...PEAKING WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
REMAINING STEADY THROUGH THURSDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE
THE DIRECTION START TO BACK TO A MORE EAST-NORTHEAST DIRECTION AS
JIMENA GAINS MORE LATITUDE...AND EVEN SEE AN INCREASE IN HEIGHT AS
IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE STATE. BECAUSE OF THE NEW SWELL...WE HAVE
EXTENDED THE HIGH SURF WARNING. THE NEW WARNING RUNS THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT WE COULD EVENTUALLY END UP EXTENDING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND OR LONGER.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS DUE TO THE SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND JIMENA. THIS
ADVISORY MAY ALSO NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND OR LONGER
AS SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND
FORECAST /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI...AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...EATON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 011955
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WITH SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS...MAINLY EACH
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE
IN THE WEEK. THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK
OF HURRICANE JIMENA WELL NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...BUT A BRIEF RETURN
TO DRIER EASTERLY WINDS IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HURRICANE IGNACIO IS LOCATED WITHIN 300 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE...WITH OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT APPARENT ON RADAR
APPROACHING THE WINDWARD COASTAL WATERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
HIGH WEST OF THE STATE WITH A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. A SURFACE
HIGH IS LOCATED FAR NORTH OF THE STATE...THOUGH WITH IGNACIO
INTERRUPTING THE GRADIENT BETWEEN US AND THE HIGH. 18Z SOUNDINGS
FROM HILO AND LIHUE SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.8 INCHES...
WHICH ARE SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN THE 2.0 INCHES FROM THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS. EARLY MORNING MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IS
TOO MOIST COMPARED TO THE SOUNDINGS...BUT DOES SHOW QUALITATIVELY
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR JUST NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS BETWEEN US AND
IGNACIO.

THE DRIER AIR SEEN BY MIMIC NORTHEAST OF THE STATE IS LIKELY WHAT
HAS MOVED SOUTH OVER US...AND WILL SOON BE REPLACED BY HIGHER VALUES
ONCE AGAIN FROM THE NORTH. A NUMBER OF STATIONS ON KAUAI RECEIVED
1-2 INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS ON OAHU GENERALLY AROUND A
QUARTER INCH. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SHOWERS FLARE UP NEAR
KAUAI/OAHU...WITH MORE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SENT AN UPDATE
EARLIER THIS MORNING TO INCREASE RAINFALL CHANCES AND ALSO ADD
THUNDER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WE ALREADY HAD A MENTION OF THUNDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIORS OF THE ISLANDS...DUE TO THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE RELATIVELY
WEAK...BUT THE OVERALL FLOW IS FROM THE NORTH FROM KAUAI TO MAUI
AND WEST NEAR THE BIG ISLAND. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
BACKING THROUGH THE DAY AS IGNACIO CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWEST WELL
NORTH OF THE STATE. WINDS FROM THIS DIRECTION WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZES OVER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF
THE ISLANDS...AND THE UPDATE FOCUSED GREATEST AFTERNOON CONVECTION
FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS /MAINLY SOUTHEAST
MAUI AND BIG ISLAND...WHICH STARTED THE DAY MOSTLY SUNNY/.

ASIDE FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT...ANOTHER CONCERN
WILL BE THE VERY HUMID CONDITIONS. THE ISLANDS ARE LOCKED UNDER A
TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS HOVERING IN THE MID 70S TO EVEN THE
UPPER 70S AT TIMES. WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...THE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE VERY
UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE OF THE UPPER 90S...AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET BELOW THE UPPER 70S.

IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED RUN OF VERY HUMID CONDITIONS AND
SPOTTY LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. SIMILAR TEMPS AND HUMIDITY CONDITIONS
WILL HOLD INTO SATURDAY AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OFFER NO RELIEF.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER HOLDS IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH NO INVERSION AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE ISLANDS. AS A
RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND WE WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING CONVERGENCE ZONE
PRODUCING MORE ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE
FORECAST AFTER THURSDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY OVER
THE ISLANDS FROM THE EAST.

DRIER EASTERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW IN THE EXTENDED. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF HURRICANE JIMENA...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY TRACK FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEE TC SIGMET SERIES TANGO FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO.

HURRICANE IGNACIO CONTINUES TO MOVE NW APPROX 200 NM NE OF PHOG. THE
WIND SURROUNDING THE ISLANDS WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY THE
PASSING OF IGNACIO. WINDS OVER THE EAST END OF THE STATE...NEAR THE
BIG ISLAND...HAVE TURNED SW TO S BEHIND IGNACIO. OVER THE WESTERN
END OF THE STATE...NEAR KAUAI MODERATE NE WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF
IGNACIO. ELSEWHERE...THERE ARE LIGHT N TO VARIABLE WINDS.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO STREAM FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WESTERN
ISLANDS. SOME SHOWERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CARRY MVFR TO ISOL IFR
CONDITIONS. THE AIRMASS OVER THE ISLANDS REMAINS UNSTABLE AND VERY
MOIST. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLANDS AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS.
CLOUD TOPS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 080-120 WITH TCU TOPS BETWEEN
150-FL250. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE CB TOPS BETWEEN FL350-400 AND
ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING AND TURB.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT LARGE SWELL FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO IS LEADING TO SEAS OF
10-12 FEET AT THE HANALEI/MOKAPU/PAUWELA CDIP BUOYS. THE DIRECTION
OF THIS SWELL WILL ALSO BACK WITH TIME...AS IGNACIO CONTINUES
TRACKING NORTHWEST. CURRENT READINGS ARE EASTERLY AT KAUAI AND
NORTHEASTERLY AT MAUI. THIS SWELL WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS IT BACKS NORTHWESTERLY. AT THE SAME TIME...A NEW LONGER
PERIOD EAST SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE JIMENA WILL BUILD
TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS SWELL WILL KEEP SURF ELEVATED NEAR WARNING
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS DUE TO THE SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND JIMENA. THIS
ADVISORY WILL ALSO NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND
FORECAST /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-
OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND
EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU
WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 011955
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WITH SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS...MAINLY EACH
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE
IN THE WEEK. THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK
OF HURRICANE JIMENA WELL NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...BUT A BRIEF RETURN
TO DRIER EASTERLY WINDS IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HURRICANE IGNACIO IS LOCATED WITHIN 300 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE...WITH OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT APPARENT ON RADAR
APPROACHING THE WINDWARD COASTAL WATERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
HIGH WEST OF THE STATE WITH A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. A SURFACE
HIGH IS LOCATED FAR NORTH OF THE STATE...THOUGH WITH IGNACIO
INTERRUPTING THE GRADIENT BETWEEN US AND THE HIGH. 18Z SOUNDINGS
FROM HILO AND LIHUE SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.8 INCHES...
WHICH ARE SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN THE 2.0 INCHES FROM THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS. EARLY MORNING MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IS
TOO MOIST COMPARED TO THE SOUNDINGS...BUT DOES SHOW QUALITATIVELY
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR JUST NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS BETWEEN US AND
IGNACIO.

THE DRIER AIR SEEN BY MIMIC NORTHEAST OF THE STATE IS LIKELY WHAT
HAS MOVED SOUTH OVER US...AND WILL SOON BE REPLACED BY HIGHER VALUES
ONCE AGAIN FROM THE NORTH. A NUMBER OF STATIONS ON KAUAI RECEIVED
1-2 INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS ON OAHU GENERALLY AROUND A
QUARTER INCH. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SHOWERS FLARE UP NEAR
KAUAI/OAHU...WITH MORE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SENT AN UPDATE
EARLIER THIS MORNING TO INCREASE RAINFALL CHANCES AND ALSO ADD
THUNDER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WE ALREADY HAD A MENTION OF THUNDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIORS OF THE ISLANDS...DUE TO THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE RELATIVELY
WEAK...BUT THE OVERALL FLOW IS FROM THE NORTH FROM KAUAI TO MAUI
AND WEST NEAR THE BIG ISLAND. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
BACKING THROUGH THE DAY AS IGNACIO CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWEST WELL
NORTH OF THE STATE. WINDS FROM THIS DIRECTION WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZES OVER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF
THE ISLANDS...AND THE UPDATE FOCUSED GREATEST AFTERNOON CONVECTION
FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS /MAINLY SOUTHEAST
MAUI AND BIG ISLAND...WHICH STARTED THE DAY MOSTLY SUNNY/.

ASIDE FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT...ANOTHER CONCERN
WILL BE THE VERY HUMID CONDITIONS. THE ISLANDS ARE LOCKED UNDER A
TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS HOVERING IN THE MID 70S TO EVEN THE
UPPER 70S AT TIMES. WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...THE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE VERY
UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE OF THE UPPER 90S...AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET BELOW THE UPPER 70S.

IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED RUN OF VERY HUMID CONDITIONS AND
SPOTTY LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. SIMILAR TEMPS AND HUMIDITY CONDITIONS
WILL HOLD INTO SATURDAY AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OFFER NO RELIEF.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER HOLDS IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH NO INVERSION AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE ISLANDS. AS A
RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND WE WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING CONVERGENCE ZONE
PRODUCING MORE ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE
FORECAST AFTER THURSDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY OVER
THE ISLANDS FROM THE EAST.

DRIER EASTERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW IN THE EXTENDED. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF HURRICANE JIMENA...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY TRACK FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEE TC SIGMET SERIES TANGO FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO.

HURRICANE IGNACIO CONTINUES TO MOVE NW APPROX 200 NM NE OF PHOG. THE
WIND SURROUNDING THE ISLANDS WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY THE
PASSING OF IGNACIO. WINDS OVER THE EAST END OF THE STATE...NEAR THE
BIG ISLAND...HAVE TURNED SW TO S BEHIND IGNACIO. OVER THE WESTERN
END OF THE STATE...NEAR KAUAI MODERATE NE WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF
IGNACIO. ELSEWHERE...THERE ARE LIGHT N TO VARIABLE WINDS.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO STREAM FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WESTERN
ISLANDS. SOME SHOWERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CARRY MVFR TO ISOL IFR
CONDITIONS. THE AIRMASS OVER THE ISLANDS REMAINS UNSTABLE AND VERY
MOIST. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLANDS AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS.
CLOUD TOPS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 080-120 WITH TCU TOPS BETWEEN
150-FL250. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE CB TOPS BETWEEN FL350-400 AND
ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING AND TURB.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT LARGE SWELL FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO IS LEADING TO SEAS OF
10-12 FEET AT THE HANALEI/MOKAPU/PAUWELA CDIP BUOYS. THE DIRECTION
OF THIS SWELL WILL ALSO BACK WITH TIME...AS IGNACIO CONTINUES
TRACKING NORTHWEST. CURRENT READINGS ARE EASTERLY AT KAUAI AND
NORTHEASTERLY AT MAUI. THIS SWELL WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS IT BACKS NORTHWESTERLY. AT THE SAME TIME...A NEW LONGER
PERIOD EAST SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE JIMENA WILL BUILD
TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS SWELL WILL KEEP SURF ELEVATED NEAR WARNING
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS DUE TO THE SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND JIMENA. THIS
ADVISORY WILL ALSO NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND
FORECAST /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-
OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND
EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU
WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...EATON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 011955
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WITH SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS...MAINLY EACH
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE
IN THE WEEK. THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK
OF HURRICANE JIMENA WELL NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...BUT A BRIEF RETURN
TO DRIER EASTERLY WINDS IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HURRICANE IGNACIO IS LOCATED WITHIN 300 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE...WITH OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT APPARENT ON RADAR
APPROACHING THE WINDWARD COASTAL WATERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
HIGH WEST OF THE STATE WITH A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. A SURFACE
HIGH IS LOCATED FAR NORTH OF THE STATE...THOUGH WITH IGNACIO
INTERRUPTING THE GRADIENT BETWEEN US AND THE HIGH. 18Z SOUNDINGS
FROM HILO AND LIHUE SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.8 INCHES...
WHICH ARE SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN THE 2.0 INCHES FROM THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS. EARLY MORNING MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IS
TOO MOIST COMPARED TO THE SOUNDINGS...BUT DOES SHOW QUALITATIVELY
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR JUST NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS BETWEEN US AND
IGNACIO.

THE DRIER AIR SEEN BY MIMIC NORTHEAST OF THE STATE IS LIKELY WHAT
HAS MOVED SOUTH OVER US...AND WILL SOON BE REPLACED BY HIGHER VALUES
ONCE AGAIN FROM THE NORTH. A NUMBER OF STATIONS ON KAUAI RECEIVED
1-2 INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS ON OAHU GENERALLY AROUND A
QUARTER INCH. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SHOWERS FLARE UP NEAR
KAUAI/OAHU...WITH MORE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SENT AN UPDATE
EARLIER THIS MORNING TO INCREASE RAINFALL CHANCES AND ALSO ADD
THUNDER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WE ALREADY HAD A MENTION OF THUNDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIORS OF THE ISLANDS...DUE TO THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE RELATIVELY
WEAK...BUT THE OVERALL FLOW IS FROM THE NORTH FROM KAUAI TO MAUI
AND WEST NEAR THE BIG ISLAND. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
BACKING THROUGH THE DAY AS IGNACIO CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWEST WELL
NORTH OF THE STATE. WINDS FROM THIS DIRECTION WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZES OVER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF
THE ISLANDS...AND THE UPDATE FOCUSED GREATEST AFTERNOON CONVECTION
FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS /MAINLY SOUTHEAST
MAUI AND BIG ISLAND...WHICH STARTED THE DAY MOSTLY SUNNY/.

ASIDE FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT...ANOTHER CONCERN
WILL BE THE VERY HUMID CONDITIONS. THE ISLANDS ARE LOCKED UNDER A
TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS HOVERING IN THE MID 70S TO EVEN THE
UPPER 70S AT TIMES. WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...THE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE VERY
UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE OF THE UPPER 90S...AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET BELOW THE UPPER 70S.

IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED RUN OF VERY HUMID CONDITIONS AND
SPOTTY LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. SIMILAR TEMPS AND HUMIDITY CONDITIONS
WILL HOLD INTO SATURDAY AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OFFER NO RELIEF.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER HOLDS IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH NO INVERSION AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE ISLANDS. AS A
RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND WE WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING CONVERGENCE ZONE
PRODUCING MORE ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE
FORECAST AFTER THURSDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY OVER
THE ISLANDS FROM THE EAST.

DRIER EASTERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW IN THE EXTENDED. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF HURRICANE JIMENA...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY TRACK FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEE TC SIGMET SERIES TANGO FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO.

HURRICANE IGNACIO CONTINUES TO MOVE NW APPROX 200 NM NE OF PHOG. THE
WIND SURROUNDING THE ISLANDS WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY THE
PASSING OF IGNACIO. WINDS OVER THE EAST END OF THE STATE...NEAR THE
BIG ISLAND...HAVE TURNED SW TO S BEHIND IGNACIO. OVER THE WESTERN
END OF THE STATE...NEAR KAUAI MODERATE NE WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF
IGNACIO. ELSEWHERE...THERE ARE LIGHT N TO VARIABLE WINDS.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO STREAM FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WESTERN
ISLANDS. SOME SHOWERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CARRY MVFR TO ISOL IFR
CONDITIONS. THE AIRMASS OVER THE ISLANDS REMAINS UNSTABLE AND VERY
MOIST. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLANDS AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS.
CLOUD TOPS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 080-120 WITH TCU TOPS BETWEEN
150-FL250. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE CB TOPS BETWEEN FL350-400 AND
ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING AND TURB.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT LARGE SWELL FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO IS LEADING TO SEAS OF
10-12 FEET AT THE HANALEI/MOKAPU/PAUWELA CDIP BUOYS. THE DIRECTION
OF THIS SWELL WILL ALSO BACK WITH TIME...AS IGNACIO CONTINUES
TRACKING NORTHWEST. CURRENT READINGS ARE EASTERLY AT KAUAI AND
NORTHEASTERLY AT MAUI. THIS SWELL WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS IT BACKS NORTHWESTERLY. AT THE SAME TIME...A NEW LONGER
PERIOD EAST SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE JIMENA WILL BUILD
TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS SWELL WILL KEEP SURF ELEVATED NEAR WARNING
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS DUE TO THE SWELLS FROM IGNACIO AND JIMENA. THIS
ADVISORY WILL ALSO NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND
FORECAST /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-
OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND
EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU
WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 011708 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
708 AM HST TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
SENT AN UPDATED COASTAL HAZARDS MESSAGE TO HEIGHTEN WORDING ABOUT
IMPACTS FROM HIGH SURF. SEAS AT THE CDIP BUOY OFF PAUWELA MAUI
PEAKED OVERNIGHT AND HAVE LOWERED TO 10 FEET...THOUGH THE MOKAPU
BUOY ON OAHU AND HANALEI ON KAUAI ARE NOW HOLDING STEADY NEAR 10
FEET. THE MORNING TIDE IS NEAR ITS PEAK RIGHT NOW AND WILL DROP A
FOOT AND A HALF THROUGH THE MORNING...WHICH MAY HELP ALLEVIATE SOME
OF THE COASTAL IMPACTS FROM THE SWELL BY MIDDAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WITH SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS...MAINLY EACH
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
JIMENA...BUT EASTERLY WINDS MAY RETURN BRIEFLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MOVED ASHORE AND INTENSIFIED ALONG NORTH
SLOPES OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS STRONGEST
OVER KAUAI...WHERE THE HANALEI RIVER STILL RAN HIGH AFTER PERSISTENT
ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE LAST 24 HOURS. LIHUE SHATTERED THE DAILY
RAINFALL RECORD FOR MONDAY. THE THREAT OF FLOODING REMAINED REAL...
BUT ALSO SOMEWHAT REMOTE UNLESS THE PACE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY PICKS
UP...WHICH MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES SUPPORT
INDEPENDENT SHOWER FORMATION OVER HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND.

IGNACIO WILL CUT OFF THE TRADE WINDS ENTIRELY AS IT PASSES NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN PRINCIPLE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ONCE THE STORM MOVES NORTH OF A GIVEN ISLAND...BUT THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK MEANT THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE VERY WEAK. IN
PRACTICE...DIURNAL CIRCULATIONS WILL REMAIN MOST IMPORTANT. MANY
PEOPLE MAY FIND CONDITIONS UNCOMFORTABLY STAGNANT AND HUMID DESPITE
ANY WIND THAT CAN DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.

FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...PREVAILING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY...BUT STILL LIGHT ENOUGH SO THAT DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL
REMAIN MORE IMPORTANT. SIMILARLY...ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH WILL DO
LITTLE TO DRY THE AIR MASS. THE HEAT INDEX WILL APPROACH THE
THRESHOLD FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT ADVISORY IN SOME AREAS...BUT FOR NOW
IT LOOKED LIKE THIS PRODUCT WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRAILING SOUTH FROM IGNACIO WILL LINGER OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. A SUBSTANTIAL FRACTION OF SOLUTIONS
PREDICTED A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE TO DEVELOP UNDER OR NEAR THIS
FEATURE...FOCUSING CONVECTION IN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS. WITH
LITTLE PREVAILING WIND THROUGH MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE VERY SLOWLY. CONSIDERING THE
UNRELENTINGLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER TOTALS...RESULTING SHOWERS MAY
BE VERY HEAVY AS WELL. HOWEVER...AFTER MORE CAREFUL ANALYSIS...THE
PRECISE MECHANICS OF SUCH A SCENARIO REMAINED OBSCURE. MODELS ALSO
COULD NOT AGREE ON THE WIDTH OF THE RESULTING LINEAR CONVECTIVE
FEATURE. SOME KEPT IT ENTIRELY OFFSHORE IN THE CHANNELS BETWEEN THE
ISLANDS...WHILE OTHERS MOVED IT OVER LAND. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN CERTAINLY WILL BE PRESENT...BUT DISTILLING A DETERMINISTIC
FORECAST FROM THESE INGREDIENTS PROVED DIFFICULT.

DRIER EASTERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...BUT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
JIMENA. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK PREDICTED THIS STORM TO MEANDER
FAR EAST TO NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEE TC SIGMET SERIES TANGO FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO.

THE PASSING OF IGNACIO A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE STATE WILL
GREATLY INFLUENCE THE WIND. WEST OF THE MAIN STORM
CIRCULATION...EXPECT MODERATE N TO NE WINDS. WINDS SOUTH OF THE
STORM WILL BACK MORE WESTERLY...AND EVENTUALLY TURN MORE SOUTHERLY
AND WEAKEN AS THE CENTER OF IGNACIO MOVES WEST.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES AND
COASTS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. ON THE BIG ISLAND....MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS WILL BE REPLACED
BY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS. ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE TO BE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO
COMING NIGHT.

THE AIRMASS OVER THE STATE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ISLAND
INTERIORS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL AFFECT THE STATE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH REINFORCING SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
JIMENA COMING IN DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE LARGEST SWELLS
WILL REMAIN AIMED AT THE BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI...BUT A HIGH SURF
WARNING REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR EAST-FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS.
EVEN WITH SWELL ENERGY FROM IGNACIO FADING ON WEDNESDAY...EASTERLY
SWELL FROM HURRICANE JIMENA WILL KEEP EAST SHORE SURF ELEVATED...
PROBABLY AT WARNING LEVELS...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ ALSO REMAINED IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR WATERS EXPOSED TO EASTERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO. THE SCA
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER IF SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE SCA THRESHOLD THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND
FORECAST /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-
OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND
EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU
WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...RYSHKO
AVIATION...BEDAL







000
FXHW60 PHFO 011708 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
708 AM HST TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
SENT AN UPDATED COASTAL HAZARDS MESSAGE TO HEIGHTEN WORDING ABOUT
IMPACTS FROM HIGH SURF. SEAS AT THE CDIP BUOY OFF PAUWELA MAUI
PEAKED OVERNIGHT AND HAVE LOWERED TO 10 FEET...THOUGH THE MOKAPU
BUOY ON OAHU AND HANALEI ON KAUAI ARE NOW HOLDING STEADY NEAR 10
FEET. THE MORNING TIDE IS NEAR ITS PEAK RIGHT NOW AND WILL DROP A
FOOT AND A HALF THROUGH THE MORNING...WHICH MAY HELP ALLEVIATE SOME
OF THE COASTAL IMPACTS FROM THE SWELL BY MIDDAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WITH SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS...MAINLY EACH
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
JIMENA...BUT EASTERLY WINDS MAY RETURN BRIEFLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MOVED ASHORE AND INTENSIFIED ALONG NORTH
SLOPES OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS STRONGEST
OVER KAUAI...WHERE THE HANALEI RIVER STILL RAN HIGH AFTER PERSISTENT
ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE LAST 24 HOURS. LIHUE SHATTERED THE DAILY
RAINFALL RECORD FOR MONDAY. THE THREAT OF FLOODING REMAINED REAL...
BUT ALSO SOMEWHAT REMOTE UNLESS THE PACE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY PICKS
UP...WHICH MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES SUPPORT
INDEPENDENT SHOWER FORMATION OVER HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND.

IGNACIO WILL CUT OFF THE TRADE WINDS ENTIRELY AS IT PASSES NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN PRINCIPLE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ONCE THE STORM MOVES NORTH OF A GIVEN ISLAND...BUT THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK MEANT THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE VERY WEAK. IN
PRACTICE...DIURNAL CIRCULATIONS WILL REMAIN MOST IMPORTANT. MANY
PEOPLE MAY FIND CONDITIONS UNCOMFORTABLY STAGNANT AND HUMID DESPITE
ANY WIND THAT CAN DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.

FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...PREVAILING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY...BUT STILL LIGHT ENOUGH SO THAT DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL
REMAIN MORE IMPORTANT. SIMILARLY...ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH WILL DO
LITTLE TO DRY THE AIR MASS. THE HEAT INDEX WILL APPROACH THE
THRESHOLD FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT ADVISORY IN SOME AREAS...BUT FOR NOW
IT LOOKED LIKE THIS PRODUCT WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRAILING SOUTH FROM IGNACIO WILL LINGER OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. A SUBSTANTIAL FRACTION OF SOLUTIONS
PREDICTED A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE TO DEVELOP UNDER OR NEAR THIS
FEATURE...FOCUSING CONVECTION IN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS. WITH
LITTLE PREVAILING WIND THROUGH MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE VERY SLOWLY. CONSIDERING THE
UNRELENTINGLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER TOTALS...RESULTING SHOWERS MAY
BE VERY HEAVY AS WELL. HOWEVER...AFTER MORE CAREFUL ANALYSIS...THE
PRECISE MECHANICS OF SUCH A SCENARIO REMAINED OBSCURE. MODELS ALSO
COULD NOT AGREE ON THE WIDTH OF THE RESULTING LINEAR CONVECTIVE
FEATURE. SOME KEPT IT ENTIRELY OFFSHORE IN THE CHANNELS BETWEEN THE
ISLANDS...WHILE OTHERS MOVED IT OVER LAND. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN CERTAINLY WILL BE PRESENT...BUT DISTILLING A DETERMINISTIC
FORECAST FROM THESE INGREDIENTS PROVED DIFFICULT.

DRIER EASTERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...BUT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
JIMENA. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK PREDICTED THIS STORM TO MEANDER
FAR EAST TO NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEE TC SIGMET SERIES TANGO FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO.

THE PASSING OF IGNACIO A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE STATE WILL
GREATLY INFLUENCE THE WIND. WEST OF THE MAIN STORM
CIRCULATION...EXPECT MODERATE N TO NE WINDS. WINDS SOUTH OF THE
STORM WILL BACK MORE WESTERLY...AND EVENTUALLY TURN MORE SOUTHERLY
AND WEAKEN AS THE CENTER OF IGNACIO MOVES WEST.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES AND
COASTS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. ON THE BIG ISLAND....MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS WILL BE REPLACED
BY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS. ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE TO BE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO
COMING NIGHT.

THE AIRMASS OVER THE STATE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ISLAND
INTERIORS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL AFFECT THE STATE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH REINFORCING SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
JIMENA COMING IN DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE LARGEST SWELLS
WILL REMAIN AIMED AT THE BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI...BUT A HIGH SURF
WARNING REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR EAST-FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS.
EVEN WITH SWELL ENERGY FROM IGNACIO FADING ON WEDNESDAY...EASTERLY
SWELL FROM HURRICANE JIMENA WILL KEEP EAST SHORE SURF ELEVATED...
PROBABLY AT WARNING LEVELS...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ ALSO REMAINED IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR WATERS EXPOSED TO EASTERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO. THE SCA
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER IF SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE SCA THRESHOLD THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND
FORECAST /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-
OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND
EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU
WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...RYSHKO
AVIATION...BEDAL








000
FXHW60 PHFO 011708 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
708 AM HST TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
SENT AN UPDATED COASTAL HAZARDS MESSAGE TO HEIGHTEN WORDING ABOUT
IMPACTS FROM HIGH SURF. SEAS AT THE CDIP BUOY OFF PAUWELA MAUI
PEAKED OVERNIGHT AND HAVE LOWERED TO 10 FEET...THOUGH THE MOKAPU
BUOY ON OAHU AND HANALEI ON KAUAI ARE NOW HOLDING STEADY NEAR 10
FEET. THE MORNING TIDE IS NEAR ITS PEAK RIGHT NOW AND WILL DROP A
FOOT AND A HALF THROUGH THE MORNING...WHICH MAY HELP ALLEVIATE SOME
OF THE COASTAL IMPACTS FROM THE SWELL BY MIDDAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WITH SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS...MAINLY EACH
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
JIMENA...BUT EASTERLY WINDS MAY RETURN BRIEFLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MOVED ASHORE AND INTENSIFIED ALONG NORTH
SLOPES OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS STRONGEST
OVER KAUAI...WHERE THE HANALEI RIVER STILL RAN HIGH AFTER PERSISTENT
ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE LAST 24 HOURS. LIHUE SHATTERED THE DAILY
RAINFALL RECORD FOR MONDAY. THE THREAT OF FLOODING REMAINED REAL...
BUT ALSO SOMEWHAT REMOTE UNLESS THE PACE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY PICKS
UP...WHICH MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES SUPPORT
INDEPENDENT SHOWER FORMATION OVER HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND.

IGNACIO WILL CUT OFF THE TRADE WINDS ENTIRELY AS IT PASSES NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN PRINCIPLE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ONCE THE STORM MOVES NORTH OF A GIVEN ISLAND...BUT THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK MEANT THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE VERY WEAK. IN
PRACTICE...DIURNAL CIRCULATIONS WILL REMAIN MOST IMPORTANT. MANY
PEOPLE MAY FIND CONDITIONS UNCOMFORTABLY STAGNANT AND HUMID DESPITE
ANY WIND THAT CAN DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.

FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...PREVAILING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY...BUT STILL LIGHT ENOUGH SO THAT DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL
REMAIN MORE IMPORTANT. SIMILARLY...ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH WILL DO
LITTLE TO DRY THE AIR MASS. THE HEAT INDEX WILL APPROACH THE
THRESHOLD FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT ADVISORY IN SOME AREAS...BUT FOR NOW
IT LOOKED LIKE THIS PRODUCT WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRAILING SOUTH FROM IGNACIO WILL LINGER OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. A SUBSTANTIAL FRACTION OF SOLUTIONS
PREDICTED A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE TO DEVELOP UNDER OR NEAR THIS
FEATURE...FOCUSING CONVECTION IN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS. WITH
LITTLE PREVAILING WIND THROUGH MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE VERY SLOWLY. CONSIDERING THE
UNRELENTINGLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER TOTALS...RESULTING SHOWERS MAY
BE VERY HEAVY AS WELL. HOWEVER...AFTER MORE CAREFUL ANALYSIS...THE
PRECISE MECHANICS OF SUCH A SCENARIO REMAINED OBSCURE. MODELS ALSO
COULD NOT AGREE ON THE WIDTH OF THE RESULTING LINEAR CONVECTIVE
FEATURE. SOME KEPT IT ENTIRELY OFFSHORE IN THE CHANNELS BETWEEN THE
ISLANDS...WHILE OTHERS MOVED IT OVER LAND. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN CERTAINLY WILL BE PRESENT...BUT DISTILLING A DETERMINISTIC
FORECAST FROM THESE INGREDIENTS PROVED DIFFICULT.

DRIER EASTERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...BUT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
JIMENA. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK PREDICTED THIS STORM TO MEANDER
FAR EAST TO NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEE TC SIGMET SERIES TANGO FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO.

THE PASSING OF IGNACIO A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE STATE WILL
GREATLY INFLUENCE THE WIND. WEST OF THE MAIN STORM
CIRCULATION...EXPECT MODERATE N TO NE WINDS. WINDS SOUTH OF THE
STORM WILL BACK MORE WESTERLY...AND EVENTUALLY TURN MORE SOUTHERLY
AND WEAKEN AS THE CENTER OF IGNACIO MOVES WEST.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES AND
COASTS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. ON THE BIG ISLAND....MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS WILL BE REPLACED
BY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS. ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE TO BE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO
COMING NIGHT.

THE AIRMASS OVER THE STATE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ISLAND
INTERIORS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL AFFECT THE STATE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH REINFORCING SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
JIMENA COMING IN DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE LARGEST SWELLS
WILL REMAIN AIMED AT THE BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI...BUT A HIGH SURF
WARNING REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR EAST-FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS.
EVEN WITH SWELL ENERGY FROM IGNACIO FADING ON WEDNESDAY...EASTERLY
SWELL FROM HURRICANE JIMENA WILL KEEP EAST SHORE SURF ELEVATED...
PROBABLY AT WARNING LEVELS...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ ALSO REMAINED IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR WATERS EXPOSED TO EASTERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO. THE SCA
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER IF SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE SCA THRESHOLD THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND
FORECAST /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-
OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND
EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU
WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...RYSHKO
AVIATION...BEDAL







000
FXHW60 PHFO 011708 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
708 AM HST TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
SENT AN UPDATED COASTAL HAZARDS MESSAGE TO HEIGHTEN WORDING ABOUT
IMPACTS FROM HIGH SURF. SEAS AT THE CDIP BUOY OFF PAUWELA MAUI
PEAKED OVERNIGHT AND HAVE LOWERED TO 10 FEET...THOUGH THE MOKAPU
BUOY ON OAHU AND HANALEI ON KAUAI ARE NOW HOLDING STEADY NEAR 10
FEET. THE MORNING TIDE IS NEAR ITS PEAK RIGHT NOW AND WILL DROP A
FOOT AND A HALF THROUGH THE MORNING...WHICH MAY HELP ALLEVIATE SOME
OF THE COASTAL IMPACTS FROM THE SWELL BY MIDDAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WITH SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS...MAINLY EACH
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
JIMENA...BUT EASTERLY WINDS MAY RETURN BRIEFLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MOVED ASHORE AND INTENSIFIED ALONG NORTH
SLOPES OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS STRONGEST
OVER KAUAI...WHERE THE HANALEI RIVER STILL RAN HIGH AFTER PERSISTENT
ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE LAST 24 HOURS. LIHUE SHATTERED THE DAILY
RAINFALL RECORD FOR MONDAY. THE THREAT OF FLOODING REMAINED REAL...
BUT ALSO SOMEWHAT REMOTE UNLESS THE PACE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY PICKS
UP...WHICH MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES SUPPORT
INDEPENDENT SHOWER FORMATION OVER HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND.

IGNACIO WILL CUT OFF THE TRADE WINDS ENTIRELY AS IT PASSES NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN PRINCIPLE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ONCE THE STORM MOVES NORTH OF A GIVEN ISLAND...BUT THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK MEANT THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE VERY WEAK. IN
PRACTICE...DIURNAL CIRCULATIONS WILL REMAIN MOST IMPORTANT. MANY
PEOPLE MAY FIND CONDITIONS UNCOMFORTABLY STAGNANT AND HUMID DESPITE
ANY WIND THAT CAN DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.

FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...PREVAILING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY...BUT STILL LIGHT ENOUGH SO THAT DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL
REMAIN MORE IMPORTANT. SIMILARLY...ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH WILL DO
LITTLE TO DRY THE AIR MASS. THE HEAT INDEX WILL APPROACH THE
THRESHOLD FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT ADVISORY IN SOME AREAS...BUT FOR NOW
IT LOOKED LIKE THIS PRODUCT WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRAILING SOUTH FROM IGNACIO WILL LINGER OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. A SUBSTANTIAL FRACTION OF SOLUTIONS
PREDICTED A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE TO DEVELOP UNDER OR NEAR THIS
FEATURE...FOCUSING CONVECTION IN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS. WITH
LITTLE PREVAILING WIND THROUGH MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE VERY SLOWLY. CONSIDERING THE
UNRELENTINGLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER TOTALS...RESULTING SHOWERS MAY
BE VERY HEAVY AS WELL. HOWEVER...AFTER MORE CAREFUL ANALYSIS...THE
PRECISE MECHANICS OF SUCH A SCENARIO REMAINED OBSCURE. MODELS ALSO
COULD NOT AGREE ON THE WIDTH OF THE RESULTING LINEAR CONVECTIVE
FEATURE. SOME KEPT IT ENTIRELY OFFSHORE IN THE CHANNELS BETWEEN THE
ISLANDS...WHILE OTHERS MOVED IT OVER LAND. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN CERTAINLY WILL BE PRESENT...BUT DISTILLING A DETERMINISTIC
FORECAST FROM THESE INGREDIENTS PROVED DIFFICULT.

DRIER EASTERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...BUT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
JIMENA. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK PREDICTED THIS STORM TO MEANDER
FAR EAST TO NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEE TC SIGMET SERIES TANGO FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO.

THE PASSING OF IGNACIO A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE STATE WILL
GREATLY INFLUENCE THE WIND. WEST OF THE MAIN STORM
CIRCULATION...EXPECT MODERATE N TO NE WINDS. WINDS SOUTH OF THE
STORM WILL BACK MORE WESTERLY...AND EVENTUALLY TURN MORE SOUTHERLY
AND WEAKEN AS THE CENTER OF IGNACIO MOVES WEST.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES AND
COASTS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. ON THE BIG ISLAND....MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS WILL BE REPLACED
BY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS. ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE TO BE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO
COMING NIGHT.

THE AIRMASS OVER THE STATE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ISLAND
INTERIORS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL AFFECT THE STATE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH REINFORCING SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
JIMENA COMING IN DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE LARGEST SWELLS
WILL REMAIN AIMED AT THE BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI...BUT A HIGH SURF
WARNING REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR EAST-FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS.
EVEN WITH SWELL ENERGY FROM IGNACIO FADING ON WEDNESDAY...EASTERLY
SWELL FROM HURRICANE JIMENA WILL KEEP EAST SHORE SURF ELEVATED...
PROBABLY AT WARNING LEVELS...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ ALSO REMAINED IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR WATERS EXPOSED TO EASTERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO. THE SCA
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER IF SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE SCA THRESHOLD THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND
FORECAST /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-
OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND
EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU
WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...RYSHKO
AVIATION...BEDAL








000
FXHW60 PHFO 011336
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WITH SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS...MAINLY EACH
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
JIMENA...BUT EASTERLY WINDS MAY RETURN BRIEFLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MOVED ASHORE AND INTENSIFIED ALONG NORTH
SLOPES OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS STRONGEST
OVER KAUAI...WHERE THE HANALEI RIVER STILL RAN HIGH AFTER PERSISTENT
ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE LAST 24 HOURS. LIHUE SHATTERED THE DAILY
RAINFALL RECORD FOR MONDAY. THE THREAT OF FLOODING REMAINED REAL...
BUT ALSO SOMEWHAT REMOTE UNLESS THE PACE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY PICKS
UP...WHICH MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES SUPPORT
INDEPENDENT SHOWER FORMATION OVER HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND.

IGNACIO WILL CUT OFF THE TRADE WINDS ENTIRELY AS IT PASSES NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN PRINCIPLE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ONCE THE STORM MOVES NORTH OF A GIVEN ISLAND...BUT THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK MEANT THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE VERY WEAK. IN
PRACTICE...DIURNAL CIRCULATIONS WILL REMAIN MOST IMPORTANT. MANY
PEOPLE MAY FIND CONDITIONS UNCOMFORTABLY STAGNANT AND HUMID DESPITE
ANY WIND THAT CAN DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.

FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...PREVAILING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY...BUT STILL LIGHT ENOUGH SO THAT DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL
REMAIN MORE IMPORTANT. SIMILARLY...ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH WILL DO
LITTLE TO DRY THE AIR MASS. THE HEAT INDEX WILL APPROACH THE
THRESHOLD FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT ADVISORY IN SOME AREAS...BUT FOR NOW
IT LOOKED LIKE THIS PRODUCT WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRAILING SOUTH FROM IGNACIO WILL LINGER OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. A SUBSTANTIAL FRACTION OF SOLUTIONS
PREDICTED A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE TO DEVELOP UNDER OR NEAR THIS
FEATURE...FOCUSING CONVECTION IN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS. WITH
LITTLE PREVAILING WIND THROUGH MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE VERY SLOWLY. CONSIDERING THE
UNRELENTINGLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER TOTALS...RESULTING SHOWERS MAY
BE VERY HEAVY AS WELL. HOWEVER...AFTER MORE CAREFUL ANALYSIS...THE
PRECISE MECHANICS OF SUCH A SCENARIO REMAINED OBSCURE. MODELS ALSO
COULD NOT AGREE ON THE WIDTH OF THE RESULTING LINEAR CONVECTIVE
FEATURE. SOME KEPT IT ENTIRELY OFFSHORE IN THE CHANNELS BETWEEN THE
ISLANDS...WHILE OTHERS MOVED IT OVER LAND. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN CERTAINLY WILL BE PRESENT...BUT DISTILLING A DETERMINISTIC
FORECAST FROM THESE INGREDIENTS PROVED DIFFICULT.

DRIER EASTERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...BUT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
JIMENA. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK PREDICTED THIS STORM TO MEANDER
FAR EAST TO NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEE TC SIGMET SERIES TANGO FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO.

THE PASSING OF IGNACIO A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE STATE WILL
GREATLY INFLUENCE THE WIND. WEST OF THE MAIN STORM
CIRCULATION...EXPECT MODERATE N TO NE WINDS. WINDS SOUTH OF THE
STORM WILL BACK MORE WESTERLY...AND EVENTUALLY TURN MORE SOUTHERLY
AND WEAKEN AS THE CENTER OF IGNACIO MOVES WEST.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES AND
COASTS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. ON THE BIG ISLAND....MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS WILL BE REPLACED
BY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS. ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE TO BE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO
COMING NIGHT.

THE AIRMASS OVER THE STATE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ISLAND
INTERIORS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL AFFECT THE STATE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH REINFORCING SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
JIMENA COMING IN DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE LARGEST SWELLS
WILL REMAIN AIMED AT THE BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI...BUT A HIGH SURF
WARNING REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR EAST-FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS.
EVEN WITH SWELL ENERGY FROM IGNACIO FADING ON WEDNESDAY...EASTERLY
SWELL FROM HURRICANE JIMENA WILL KEEP EAST SHORE SURF ELEVATED...
PROBABLY AT WARNING LEVELS...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ ALSO REMAINED IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR WATERS EXPOSED TO EASTERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO. THE SCA
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER IF SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE SCA THRESHOLD THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND
FORECAST /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-
OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND
EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU
WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...RYSHKO
AVIATION...BEDAL






000
FXHW60 PHFO 011336
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WITH SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS...MAINLY EACH
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
JIMENA...BUT EASTERLY WINDS MAY RETURN BRIEFLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MOVED ASHORE AND INTENSIFIED ALONG NORTH
SLOPES OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS STRONGEST
OVER KAUAI...WHERE THE HANALEI RIVER STILL RAN HIGH AFTER PERSISTENT
ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE LAST 24 HOURS. LIHUE SHATTERED THE DAILY
RAINFALL RECORD FOR MONDAY. THE THREAT OF FLOODING REMAINED REAL...
BUT ALSO SOMEWHAT REMOTE UNLESS THE PACE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY PICKS
UP...WHICH MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES SUPPORT
INDEPENDENT SHOWER FORMATION OVER HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND.

IGNACIO WILL CUT OFF THE TRADE WINDS ENTIRELY AS IT PASSES NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN PRINCIPLE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ONCE THE STORM MOVES NORTH OF A GIVEN ISLAND...BUT THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK MEANT THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE VERY WEAK. IN
PRACTICE...DIURNAL CIRCULATIONS WILL REMAIN MOST IMPORTANT. MANY
PEOPLE MAY FIND CONDITIONS UNCOMFORTABLY STAGNANT AND HUMID DESPITE
ANY WIND THAT CAN DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.

FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...PREVAILING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY...BUT STILL LIGHT ENOUGH SO THAT DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL
REMAIN MORE IMPORTANT. SIMILARLY...ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH WILL DO
LITTLE TO DRY THE AIR MASS. THE HEAT INDEX WILL APPROACH THE
THRESHOLD FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT ADVISORY IN SOME AREAS...BUT FOR NOW
IT LOOKED LIKE THIS PRODUCT WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRAILING SOUTH FROM IGNACIO WILL LINGER OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. A SUBSTANTIAL FRACTION OF SOLUTIONS
PREDICTED A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE TO DEVELOP UNDER OR NEAR THIS
FEATURE...FOCUSING CONVECTION IN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS. WITH
LITTLE PREVAILING WIND THROUGH MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE VERY SLOWLY. CONSIDERING THE
UNRELENTINGLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER TOTALS...RESULTING SHOWERS MAY
BE VERY HEAVY AS WELL. HOWEVER...AFTER MORE CAREFUL ANALYSIS...THE
PRECISE MECHANICS OF SUCH A SCENARIO REMAINED OBSCURE. MODELS ALSO
COULD NOT AGREE ON THE WIDTH OF THE RESULTING LINEAR CONVECTIVE
FEATURE. SOME KEPT IT ENTIRELY OFFSHORE IN THE CHANNELS BETWEEN THE
ISLANDS...WHILE OTHERS MOVED IT OVER LAND. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN CERTAINLY WILL BE PRESENT...BUT DISTILLING A DETERMINISTIC
FORECAST FROM THESE INGREDIENTS PROVED DIFFICULT.

DRIER EASTERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...BUT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
JIMENA. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK PREDICTED THIS STORM TO MEANDER
FAR EAST TO NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEE TC SIGMET SERIES TANGO FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO.

THE PASSING OF IGNACIO A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE STATE WILL
GREATLY INFLUENCE THE WIND. WEST OF THE MAIN STORM
CIRCULATION...EXPECT MODERATE N TO NE WINDS. WINDS SOUTH OF THE
STORM WILL BACK MORE WESTERLY...AND EVENTUALLY TURN MORE SOUTHERLY
AND WEAKEN AS THE CENTER OF IGNACIO MOVES WEST.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES AND
COASTS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. ON THE BIG ISLAND....MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS WILL BE REPLACED
BY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS. ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE TO BE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO
COMING NIGHT.

THE AIRMASS OVER THE STATE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ISLAND
INTERIORS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL AFFECT THE STATE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH REINFORCING SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
JIMENA COMING IN DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE LARGEST SWELLS
WILL REMAIN AIMED AT THE BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI...BUT A HIGH SURF
WARNING REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR EAST-FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS.
EVEN WITH SWELL ENERGY FROM IGNACIO FADING ON WEDNESDAY...EASTERLY
SWELL FROM HURRICANE JIMENA WILL KEEP EAST SHORE SURF ELEVATED...
PROBABLY AT WARNING LEVELS...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ ALSO REMAINED IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR WATERS EXPOSED TO EASTERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO. THE SCA
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER IF SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE SCA THRESHOLD THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND
FORECAST /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-
OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND
EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU
WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...RYSHKO
AVIATION...BEDAL







000
FXHW60 PHFO 010634
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WITH SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. A
TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE MAY ORGANIZE THE SHOWERS ENOUGH
AROUND THURSDAY TO POSE THE RISK OF FLOODING. THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE JIMENA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MOVED ASHORE AND INTENSIFIED ALONG NORTH
SHORES OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. SEA BREEZES ENCOURAGED BY THE
LIGHT PREVAILING FLOW ALSO SUPPORTED INDEPENDENT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY WAS STRONGEST OVER
KAUAI...WHERE THE HANALEI RIVER RAN HIGH AFTER CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY. THUS FAR FLOODING HAD BEEN AVERTED.

IGNACIO WILL CUT OFF THE TRADE WINDS ENTIRELY AS IT PASSES NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IN PRINCIPLE...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ONCE THE STORM MOVES NORTH OF A GIVEN ISLAND...BUT THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK MEANT THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE VERY WEAK. IN
PRACTICE...DIURNAL CIRCULATIONS WILL BE MOST IMPORTANT...THOUGH MANY
PEOPLE MAY FIND CONDITIONS UNCOMFORTABLY STAGNANT AND HUMID. SPOTTY
HEAVY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL COMPLETE THE SCENARIO
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...PREVAILING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY...BUT STILL LIGHT ENOUGH SO THAT DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL
REMAIN MORE IMPORTANT. SIMILARLY...ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH WILL DO
LITTLE TO DRY THE AIR MASS. THE HEAT INDEX WILL APPROACH THE
THRESHOLD FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT ADVISORY IN SOME AREAS...BUT FOR NOW
IT LOOKED LIKE THIS OUTCOME WILL BE AVOIDED.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRAILING SOUTH FROM IGNACIO WILL LINGER OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. A SUBSTANTIAL FRACTION OF SOLUTIONS
PREDICTED A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE TO DEVELOP UNDER OR NEAR THIS
FEATURE...FOCUSING CONVECTION IN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS. WITH
LITTLE PREVAILING WIND THROUGH MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE VERY SLOWLY. CONSIDERING THE
UNRELENTINGLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER TOTALS...RESULTING SHOWERS
MAY BE VERY HEAVY AS WELL. THIS SITUATION PROBABLY REPRESENTED THE
GREATEST THREAT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF THE DIRECT
EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN ANY CASE. IT MAY BE PRUDENT TO
CONSIDER THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IF THIS SCENARIO REMAINS
PLAUSIBLE.

DRIER EASTERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...BUT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
JIMENA. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK PREDICTED THIS STORM TO MEANDER
FAR EAST TO NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEE TC SIGMET SERIES TANGO FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO.

THE PASSING OF IGNACIO A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE STATE WILL
GREATLY INFLUENCE THE WIND. WEST OF THE MAIN STORM
CIRCULATION...EXPECT MODERATE N TO NE WINDS. WINDS SOUTH OF THE
STORM WILL BACK MORE WESTERLY...AND EVENTUALLY TURN MORE SOUTHERLY
AND WEAKEN AS THE CENTER OF IGNACIO MOVES WEST.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES AND
COASTS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. ON THE BIG ISLAND....PARTIAL CLEARING
TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY ON TUESDAY TO AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARDS AREAS. ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE TO BE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE AIRMASS OVER THE STATE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NE HALF OF
THE COASTAL WATERS AND LAND AREAS TONIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR BIG ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL AFFECT THE ISLANDS DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH REINFORCING SWELLS FROM DISTANT
HURRICANE JIMENA COMING IN DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE LARGEST
SWELLS WILL REMAIN AIMED AT THE BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI INTO
TONIGHT...WHERE A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINED IN EFFECT. THE OTHER
ISLANDS MOSTLY HAD BEEN BLOCKED FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL OF
IGNACIO...BUT THE SYSTEM MOVED INTO THE SWELL WINDOW OF THESE
ISLANDS LAST NIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT BUILDING SURF FOR THESE
ISLANDS INTO TUESDAY...AND THE HIGH SURF WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED
TO COVER EAST-FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS. EVEN WITH SWELL ENERGY
FROM IGNACIO FADING ON WEDNESDAY...EAST SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...POSSIBLY TO WARNING LEVELS...THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND DUE TO EASTERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE JIMENA.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ ALSO REMAINED IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR WATERS EXPOSED TO EASTERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO.
THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER IF SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE SCA THRESHOLD THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND
FORECAST /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-
OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND
EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU
WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...RYSHKO
AVIATION...BEDAL







000
FXHW60 PHFO 010634
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WITH SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. A
TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE MAY ORGANIZE THE SHOWERS ENOUGH
AROUND THURSDAY TO POSE THE RISK OF FLOODING. THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE JIMENA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MOVED ASHORE AND INTENSIFIED ALONG NORTH
SHORES OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. SEA BREEZES ENCOURAGED BY THE
LIGHT PREVAILING FLOW ALSO SUPPORTED INDEPENDENT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY WAS STRONGEST OVER
KAUAI...WHERE THE HANALEI RIVER RAN HIGH AFTER CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY. THUS FAR FLOODING HAD BEEN AVERTED.

IGNACIO WILL CUT OFF THE TRADE WINDS ENTIRELY AS IT PASSES NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IN PRINCIPLE...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ONCE THE STORM MOVES NORTH OF A GIVEN ISLAND...BUT THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK MEANT THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE VERY WEAK. IN
PRACTICE...DIURNAL CIRCULATIONS WILL BE MOST IMPORTANT...THOUGH MANY
PEOPLE MAY FIND CONDITIONS UNCOMFORTABLY STAGNANT AND HUMID. SPOTTY
HEAVY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL COMPLETE THE SCENARIO
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...PREVAILING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY...BUT STILL LIGHT ENOUGH SO THAT DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL
REMAIN MORE IMPORTANT. SIMILARLY...ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH WILL DO
LITTLE TO DRY THE AIR MASS. THE HEAT INDEX WILL APPROACH THE
THRESHOLD FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT ADVISORY IN SOME AREAS...BUT FOR NOW
IT LOOKED LIKE THIS OUTCOME WILL BE AVOIDED.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRAILING SOUTH FROM IGNACIO WILL LINGER OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. A SUBSTANTIAL FRACTION OF SOLUTIONS
PREDICTED A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE TO DEVELOP UNDER OR NEAR THIS
FEATURE...FOCUSING CONVECTION IN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS. WITH
LITTLE PREVAILING WIND THROUGH MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE VERY SLOWLY. CONSIDERING THE
UNRELENTINGLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER TOTALS...RESULTING SHOWERS
MAY BE VERY HEAVY AS WELL. THIS SITUATION PROBABLY REPRESENTED THE
GREATEST THREAT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF THE DIRECT
EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN ANY CASE. IT MAY BE PRUDENT TO
CONSIDER THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IF THIS SCENARIO REMAINS
PLAUSIBLE.

DRIER EASTERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...BUT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
JIMENA. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK PREDICTED THIS STORM TO MEANDER
FAR EAST TO NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEE TC SIGMET SERIES TANGO FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO.

THE PASSING OF IGNACIO A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE STATE WILL
GREATLY INFLUENCE THE WIND. WEST OF THE MAIN STORM
CIRCULATION...EXPECT MODERATE N TO NE WINDS. WINDS SOUTH OF THE
STORM WILL BACK MORE WESTERLY...AND EVENTUALLY TURN MORE SOUTHERLY
AND WEAKEN AS THE CENTER OF IGNACIO MOVES WEST.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES AND
COASTS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. ON THE BIG ISLAND....PARTIAL CLEARING
TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY ON TUESDAY TO AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARDS AREAS. ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE TO BE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE AIRMASS OVER THE STATE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NE HALF OF
THE COASTAL WATERS AND LAND AREAS TONIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR BIG ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL AFFECT THE ISLANDS DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH REINFORCING SWELLS FROM DISTANT
HURRICANE JIMENA COMING IN DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE LARGEST
SWELLS WILL REMAIN AIMED AT THE BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI INTO
TONIGHT...WHERE A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINED IN EFFECT. THE OTHER
ISLANDS MOSTLY HAD BEEN BLOCKED FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL OF
IGNACIO...BUT THE SYSTEM MOVED INTO THE SWELL WINDOW OF THESE
ISLANDS LAST NIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT BUILDING SURF FOR THESE
ISLANDS INTO TUESDAY...AND THE HIGH SURF WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED
TO COVER EAST-FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS. EVEN WITH SWELL ENERGY
FROM IGNACIO FADING ON WEDNESDAY...EAST SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...POSSIBLY TO WARNING LEVELS...THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND DUE TO EASTERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE JIMENA.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ ALSO REMAINED IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR WATERS EXPOSED TO EASTERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO.
THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER IF SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE SCA THRESHOLD THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND
FORECAST /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-
OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND
EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU
WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...RYSHKO
AVIATION...BEDAL






000
FXHW60 PHFO 010634
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WITH SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. A
TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE MAY ORGANIZE THE SHOWERS ENOUGH
AROUND THURSDAY TO POSE THE RISK OF FLOODING. THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE JIMENA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MOVED ASHORE AND INTENSIFIED ALONG NORTH
SHORES OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. SEA BREEZES ENCOURAGED BY THE
LIGHT PREVAILING FLOW ALSO SUPPORTED INDEPENDENT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY WAS STRONGEST OVER
KAUAI...WHERE THE HANALEI RIVER RAN HIGH AFTER CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY. THUS FAR FLOODING HAD BEEN AVERTED.

IGNACIO WILL CUT OFF THE TRADE WINDS ENTIRELY AS IT PASSES NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IN PRINCIPLE...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ONCE THE STORM MOVES NORTH OF A GIVEN ISLAND...BUT THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK MEANT THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE VERY WEAK. IN
PRACTICE...DIURNAL CIRCULATIONS WILL BE MOST IMPORTANT...THOUGH MANY
PEOPLE MAY FIND CONDITIONS UNCOMFORTABLY STAGNANT AND HUMID. SPOTTY
HEAVY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL COMPLETE THE SCENARIO
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...PREVAILING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY...BUT STILL LIGHT ENOUGH SO THAT DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL
REMAIN MORE IMPORTANT. SIMILARLY...ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH WILL DO
LITTLE TO DRY THE AIR MASS. THE HEAT INDEX WILL APPROACH THE
THRESHOLD FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT ADVISORY IN SOME AREAS...BUT FOR NOW
IT LOOKED LIKE THIS OUTCOME WILL BE AVOIDED.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRAILING SOUTH FROM IGNACIO WILL LINGER OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. A SUBSTANTIAL FRACTION OF SOLUTIONS
PREDICTED A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE TO DEVELOP UNDER OR NEAR THIS
FEATURE...FOCUSING CONVECTION IN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS. WITH
LITTLE PREVAILING WIND THROUGH MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE VERY SLOWLY. CONSIDERING THE
UNRELENTINGLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER TOTALS...RESULTING SHOWERS
MAY BE VERY HEAVY AS WELL. THIS SITUATION PROBABLY REPRESENTED THE
GREATEST THREAT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF THE DIRECT
EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN ANY CASE. IT MAY BE PRUDENT TO
CONSIDER THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IF THIS SCENARIO REMAINS
PLAUSIBLE.

DRIER EASTERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...BUT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
JIMENA. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK PREDICTED THIS STORM TO MEANDER
FAR EAST TO NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEE TC SIGMET SERIES TANGO FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO.

THE PASSING OF IGNACIO A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE STATE WILL
GREATLY INFLUENCE THE WIND. WEST OF THE MAIN STORM
CIRCULATION...EXPECT MODERATE N TO NE WINDS. WINDS SOUTH OF THE
STORM WILL BACK MORE WESTERLY...AND EVENTUALLY TURN MORE SOUTHERLY
AND WEAKEN AS THE CENTER OF IGNACIO MOVES WEST.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES AND
COASTS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. ON THE BIG ISLAND....PARTIAL CLEARING
TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY ON TUESDAY TO AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARDS AREAS. ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE TO BE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE AIRMASS OVER THE STATE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NE HALF OF
THE COASTAL WATERS AND LAND AREAS TONIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR BIG ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL AFFECT THE ISLANDS DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH REINFORCING SWELLS FROM DISTANT
HURRICANE JIMENA COMING IN DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE LARGEST
SWELLS WILL REMAIN AIMED AT THE BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI INTO
TONIGHT...WHERE A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINED IN EFFECT. THE OTHER
ISLANDS MOSTLY HAD BEEN BLOCKED FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL OF
IGNACIO...BUT THE SYSTEM MOVED INTO THE SWELL WINDOW OF THESE
ISLANDS LAST NIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT BUILDING SURF FOR THESE
ISLANDS INTO TUESDAY...AND THE HIGH SURF WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED
TO COVER EAST-FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS. EVEN WITH SWELL ENERGY
FROM IGNACIO FADING ON WEDNESDAY...EAST SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...POSSIBLY TO WARNING LEVELS...THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND DUE TO EASTERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE JIMENA.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ ALSO REMAINED IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR WATERS EXPOSED TO EASTERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO.
THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER IF SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE SCA THRESHOLD THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND
FORECAST /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-
OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND
EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU
WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...RYSHKO
AVIATION...BEDAL






000
FXHW60 PHFO 010634
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WITH SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. A
TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE MAY ORGANIZE THE SHOWERS ENOUGH
AROUND THURSDAY TO POSE THE RISK OF FLOODING. THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE JIMENA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MOVED ASHORE AND INTENSIFIED ALONG NORTH
SHORES OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. SEA BREEZES ENCOURAGED BY THE
LIGHT PREVAILING FLOW ALSO SUPPORTED INDEPENDENT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY WAS STRONGEST OVER
KAUAI...WHERE THE HANALEI RIVER RAN HIGH AFTER CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY. THUS FAR FLOODING HAD BEEN AVERTED.

IGNACIO WILL CUT OFF THE TRADE WINDS ENTIRELY AS IT PASSES NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IN PRINCIPLE...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ONCE THE STORM MOVES NORTH OF A GIVEN ISLAND...BUT THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK MEANT THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE VERY WEAK. IN
PRACTICE...DIURNAL CIRCULATIONS WILL BE MOST IMPORTANT...THOUGH MANY
PEOPLE MAY FIND CONDITIONS UNCOMFORTABLY STAGNANT AND HUMID. SPOTTY
HEAVY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL COMPLETE THE SCENARIO
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...PREVAILING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY...BUT STILL LIGHT ENOUGH SO THAT DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL
REMAIN MORE IMPORTANT. SIMILARLY...ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH WILL DO
LITTLE TO DRY THE AIR MASS. THE HEAT INDEX WILL APPROACH THE
THRESHOLD FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT ADVISORY IN SOME AREAS...BUT FOR NOW
IT LOOKED LIKE THIS OUTCOME WILL BE AVOIDED.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRAILING SOUTH FROM IGNACIO WILL LINGER OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. A SUBSTANTIAL FRACTION OF SOLUTIONS
PREDICTED A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE TO DEVELOP UNDER OR NEAR THIS
FEATURE...FOCUSING CONVECTION IN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS. WITH
LITTLE PREVAILING WIND THROUGH MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE VERY SLOWLY. CONSIDERING THE
UNRELENTINGLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER TOTALS...RESULTING SHOWERS
MAY BE VERY HEAVY AS WELL. THIS SITUATION PROBABLY REPRESENTED THE
GREATEST THREAT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF THE DIRECT
EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN ANY CASE. IT MAY BE PRUDENT TO
CONSIDER THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IF THIS SCENARIO REMAINS
PLAUSIBLE.

DRIER EASTERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...BUT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
JIMENA. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK PREDICTED THIS STORM TO MEANDER
FAR EAST TO NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEE TC SIGMET SERIES TANGO FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO.

THE PASSING OF IGNACIO A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE STATE WILL
GREATLY INFLUENCE THE WIND. WEST OF THE MAIN STORM
CIRCULATION...EXPECT MODERATE N TO NE WINDS. WINDS SOUTH OF THE
STORM WILL BACK MORE WESTERLY...AND EVENTUALLY TURN MORE SOUTHERLY
AND WEAKEN AS THE CENTER OF IGNACIO MOVES WEST.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES AND
COASTS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. ON THE BIG ISLAND....PARTIAL CLEARING
TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY ON TUESDAY TO AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARDS AREAS. ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE TO BE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE AIRMASS OVER THE STATE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NE HALF OF
THE COASTAL WATERS AND LAND AREAS TONIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR BIG ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL AFFECT THE ISLANDS DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH REINFORCING SWELLS FROM DISTANT
HURRICANE JIMENA COMING IN DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE LARGEST
SWELLS WILL REMAIN AIMED AT THE BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI INTO
TONIGHT...WHERE A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINED IN EFFECT. THE OTHER
ISLANDS MOSTLY HAD BEEN BLOCKED FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL OF
IGNACIO...BUT THE SYSTEM MOVED INTO THE SWELL WINDOW OF THESE
ISLANDS LAST NIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT BUILDING SURF FOR THESE
ISLANDS INTO TUESDAY...AND THE HIGH SURF WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED
TO COVER EAST-FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS. EVEN WITH SWELL ENERGY
FROM IGNACIO FADING ON WEDNESDAY...EAST SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...POSSIBLY TO WARNING LEVELS...THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND DUE TO EASTERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE JIMENA.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ ALSO REMAINED IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR WATERS EXPOSED TO EASTERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO.
THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER IF SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE SCA THRESHOLD THIS WEEK.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND
FORECAST /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-
OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND
EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU
WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...RYSHKO
AVIATION...BEDAL







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