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000
FXHW60 PHFO 051330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE IN SPEED AFTER
WEDNESDAY...AND PROBABLY PEAK OVER THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST ACTIVE OVER WINDWARD SLOPES...THOUGH A FEW MAY DRIFT
LEEWARD AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS STILL REPORTED
SOLIDLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS. THE INVERSION WAS A LITTLE ON THE HIGH
SIDE...AND NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...LEAVING AMPLE HEADROOM FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. SOUNDING MEASUREMENTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER
THE STATE SUGGESTED A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS...AND RECENT SATELLITE
ESTIMATES SHOWED THE MOISTER AIR TO THE EAST FOLLOWING A TRAJECTORY
THAT SHOULD PASS NORTH OF KAUAI. LOOSE BANDS OF STRATOCUMULI AND
CUMULI PASSING OVER THE STATE FROM THE EAST PRODUCED FEWER BUT MORE
INTENSE SHOWERS THAN ARE TYPICAL FOR TRADE-WIND CONDITIONS...
POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO THE RAISED INVERSION. AS USUAL...INDIVIDUAL
SMALL SHOWERS ALSO CONTINUED TO ENHANCE OVER WINDWARD SLOPES...AND
LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE WEEK.

ALOFT...BROAD ZONAL RIDGING ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN
KEPT THE MAIN PART OF THE STORM TRACK WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS...BUT SHALLOW EXTENSIONS OF PASSING TROUGHS AND RIDGES DID
REACH THE STATE. THESE WAVES...AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE SURFACE...WILL BRING MOST OF THE CHANGES TO
LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK.

RECENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUED TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN PHASE AMONG THE
PASSING IMPULSES THROUGH ABOUT MID-WEEK. THEY DID SEEM TO AGREE
THAT MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY LATE IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASED TRADE WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE CURRENT FORECAST
INCLUDED SUCH A TREND...BUT IF THE SOLUTIONS BUILD DEEP RIDGING TO
THE NORTH MUCH MORE...THEN FURTHER INCREASES MAY BE NECESSARY...
INCLUDING PERHAPS A MENTION OF GALES IN THE CHANNELS.

OTHERWISE CLIMATOLOGY MAY PROVE DIFFICULT TO OUTPREDICT.
SIMILARLY...IT MAY BE TEMPTING TO FORECAST TRENDS IN TRADE-WIND
SHOWERS SIMPLY FROM MODEL CONSENSUS PRECIPITABLE WATER...BUT IN
PRACTICE THE CORRELATION TENDS TO BE LESS THAN IDEAL. ADDITIONAL
RUNS SHOULD BE INSTRUCTIVE.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR TYPICALLY WINDIER
AREAS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

THE TRADE WINDS ALSO WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SHORT-PERIOD SURF ALONG
EAST-FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD. A LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL
WILL BUILD TODAY...AND THEN PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LIKELY
BRINGING ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF TO SOUTH-FACING SHORES. A TINY NORTH
SWELL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND A SLIGHTLY LARGER
NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS

&&

$$

RYSHKO






000
FXHW60 PHFO 050600
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE MOST ACTIVE OVER WINDWARD SLOPES...THOUGH
A FEW MAY DRIFT LEEWARD AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REPORTED
SOLIDLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS. A SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWED WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST COASTAL WATERS APPROACHING
THE CRITERION FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACES...SO THERE WAS
LITTLE DOUBT THAT SPEEDS OVER USUALLY WINDY AREAS AROUND MAUI AND
THE BIG ISLAND DID REACH THAT LIMIT. CLOUD MOTIONS UPWIND OF THE
STATE ALSO SUGGESTED THAT THE WINDS EXTENDED THROUGH MOST OF THE
MIXED LAYER BELOW THE INVERSION.

THE INVERSION WAS A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE...AND NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG...LEAVING AMPLE HEADROOM FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH
SOUNDING MEASUREMENTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE STATE SUGGESTED
A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS...SATELLITE ESTIMATES SHOWED SLIGHTLY
MOISTER AIR IMMEDIATELY UPWIND. A LOOSE BAND OF STRATOCUMULI AND
CUMULI VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGES AS IT MOVED IN FROM THE EAST
PROBABLY EXPLAINED THE DISCREPANCY...SUCH AS IT WAS. AS USUAL...
INDIVIDUAL SMALL SHOWERS ALSO CONTINUED TO ENHANCE OVER WINDWARD
SLOPES...AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE WEEK.

ALOFT...BROAD ZONAL RIDGING ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN
KEPT THE MAIN PART OF THE STORM TRACK WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS...BUT SHALLOW EXTENSIONS OF PASSING TROUGHS AND RIDGES DID
REACH THE STATE. THESE WAVES...AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE SURFACE...WILL BRING MOST OF THE CHANGES TO
LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK.

RECENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUED TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN PHASE AMONG THE
PASSING IMPULSES OVER THE MORE FUNDAMENTAL RIDGE. ON THE WHOLE...IT
SEEMS THAT MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD INCREASE BY LATE IN THE WEEK...
POSSIBLY BRINGING INCREASED TRADE WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE
CLIMATOLOGY MAY PROVE DIFFICULT TO OUTPREDICT. SIMILARLY...IT MAY BE
TEMPTING TO FORECAST TRENDS IN TRADE-WIND SHOWERS SIMPLY FROM MODEL
CONSENSUS PRECIPITABLE WATER...BUT IN PRACTICE THE CORRELATION TENDS
TO BE LESS THAN IDEAL. ADDITIONAL RUNS SHOULD BE INSTRUCTIVE.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR TYPICALLY WINDIER
AREAS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

THE TRADE WINDS ALSO WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SHORT-PERIOD SURF ALONG
EAST-FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD. A LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL
WILL BUILD TUESDAY...AND THEN PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LIKELY
BRINGING ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF TO SOUTH-FACING SHORES. A TINY NORTH
SWELL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND A SLIGHTLY LARGER
NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS

&&

$$

RYSHKO







000
FXHW60 PHFO 050600
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE MOST ACTIVE OVER WINDWARD SLOPES...THOUGH
A FEW MAY DRIFT LEEWARD AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REPORTED
SOLIDLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS. A SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWED WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST COASTAL WATERS APPROACHING
THE CRITERION FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACES...SO THERE WAS
LITTLE DOUBT THAT SPEEDS OVER USUALLY WINDY AREAS AROUND MAUI AND
THE BIG ISLAND DID REACH THAT LIMIT. CLOUD MOTIONS UPWIND OF THE
STATE ALSO SUGGESTED THAT THE WINDS EXTENDED THROUGH MOST OF THE
MIXED LAYER BELOW THE INVERSION.

THE INVERSION WAS A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE...AND NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG...LEAVING AMPLE HEADROOM FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH
SOUNDING MEASUREMENTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE STATE SUGGESTED
A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS...SATELLITE ESTIMATES SHOWED SLIGHTLY
MOISTER AIR IMMEDIATELY UPWIND. A LOOSE BAND OF STRATOCUMULI AND
CUMULI VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGES AS IT MOVED IN FROM THE EAST
PROBABLY EXPLAINED THE DISCREPANCY...SUCH AS IT WAS. AS USUAL...
INDIVIDUAL SMALL SHOWERS ALSO CONTINUED TO ENHANCE OVER WINDWARD
SLOPES...AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE WEEK.

ALOFT...BROAD ZONAL RIDGING ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN
KEPT THE MAIN PART OF THE STORM TRACK WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS...BUT SHALLOW EXTENSIONS OF PASSING TROUGHS AND RIDGES DID
REACH THE STATE. THESE WAVES...AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE SURFACE...WILL BRING MOST OF THE CHANGES TO
LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK.

RECENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUED TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN PHASE AMONG THE
PASSING IMPULSES OVER THE MORE FUNDAMENTAL RIDGE. ON THE WHOLE...IT
SEEMS THAT MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD INCREASE BY LATE IN THE WEEK...
POSSIBLY BRINGING INCREASED TRADE WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE
CLIMATOLOGY MAY PROVE DIFFICULT TO OUTPREDICT. SIMILARLY...IT MAY BE
TEMPTING TO FORECAST TRENDS IN TRADE-WIND SHOWERS SIMPLY FROM MODEL
CONSENSUS PRECIPITABLE WATER...BUT IN PRACTICE THE CORRELATION TENDS
TO BE LESS THAN IDEAL. ADDITIONAL RUNS SHOULD BE INSTRUCTIVE.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR TYPICALLY WINDIER
AREAS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

THE TRADE WINDS ALSO WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SHORT-PERIOD SURF ALONG
EAST-FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD. A LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL
WILL BUILD TUESDAY...AND THEN PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LIKELY
BRINGING ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF TO SOUTH-FACING SHORES. A TINY NORTH
SWELL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND A SLIGHTLY LARGER
NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS

&&

$$

RYSHKO






000
FXHW60 PHFO 050345 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
351 PM HST MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH
SHOWERS FOCUSED OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES. LEEWARD LOCATIONS OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS WILL SEE A FEW PASSING SHOWERS BUT WILL EXPERIENCE
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. LEEWARD BIG ISLAND AREAS WILL CLOUD UP IN THE
AFTERNOONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE LOWER SLOPES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA NORTH OF THE STATE BRINGING
TRADE WINDS TO THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. RAINFALL
WILL FOCUS OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS OVER
LEEWARD LOCATIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE LEEWARD LOWER SLOPES
OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOONS. TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN ALMOST DUE EAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND WINDS CONVERGING ON THE LEE SIDE OF MOLOKAI MAY
BRING SOME QUICK HITTING SHOWERS TO EAST OAHU AND CENTRAL AREAS OF
HONOLULU.

MIMIC SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOW SOME SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED AREAS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE PUSHING TOWARD THE ISLAND
CHAIN. ONE BATCH OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE WINDWARD
BIG ISLAND AND WILL BRING CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE SECOND IS FARTHER UPSTREAM AND WILL REACH THE WINDWARD
AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS TONIGHT...INCREASING SHOWERS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN RATES ARE EXPECTED
WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF DOWNPOUR WITH THESE SHOWERS.

AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CURRENT TRADE WIND TEMPERATURE
INVERSION IS NEAR 9 THOUSAND FEET OVER KAUAI AND 10 THOUSAND FEET
OVER THE BIG ISLAND.... RADAR DATA BEARS THAT OUT WITH CLOUD TOPS
CAPPED AT 8 TO 10 THOUSAND FEET. CURRENT 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
ABOUT NEUTRAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR NEAR -8 CELSIUS. THIS WEEKEND
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING BY TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO -10 CELSIUS OVER THE
NORTHERN ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND OAHU. THE SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPS MAY
ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE VERTICAL CLOUD GROWTH AND AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE STATE WILL KEEP A MODERATE TO BREEZY E TO NE
TRADE WIND FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS MOUNTAIN AND N THRU E SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TAF
SITES...BUT SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY IMPACT PHTO...PHLI AND
PHNY.

AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND TO
THE SOUTH THRU WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR TYPICALLY WINDIER
AREAS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...AND HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

THE TRADE WINDS ALSO WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SHORT-PERIOD SURF ALONG
EAST-FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD. A LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL
WILL BUILD TUESDAY...AND THEN PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LIKELY
BRINGING ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF TO SOUTH- FACING SHORES. A TINY NORTH
SWELL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AND A SLIGHTLY LARGER
NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
JELSEMA...AVIATION










000
FXHW60 PHFO 050345 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
351 PM HST MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH
SHOWERS FOCUSED OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES. LEEWARD LOCATIONS OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS WILL SEE A FEW PASSING SHOWERS BUT WILL EXPERIENCE
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. LEEWARD BIG ISLAND AREAS WILL CLOUD UP IN THE
AFTERNOONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE LOWER SLOPES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA NORTH OF THE STATE BRINGING
TRADE WINDS TO THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. RAINFALL
WILL FOCUS OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS OVER
LEEWARD LOCATIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE LEEWARD LOWER SLOPES
OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOONS. TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN ALMOST DUE EAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND WINDS CONVERGING ON THE LEE SIDE OF MOLOKAI MAY
BRING SOME QUICK HITTING SHOWERS TO EAST OAHU AND CENTRAL AREAS OF
HONOLULU.

MIMIC SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOW SOME SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED AREAS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE PUSHING TOWARD THE ISLAND
CHAIN. ONE BATCH OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE WINDWARD
BIG ISLAND AND WILL BRING CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE SECOND IS FARTHER UPSTREAM AND WILL REACH THE WINDWARD
AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS TONIGHT...INCREASING SHOWERS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN RATES ARE EXPECTED
WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF DOWNPOUR WITH THESE SHOWERS.

AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CURRENT TRADE WIND TEMPERATURE
INVERSION IS NEAR 9 THOUSAND FEET OVER KAUAI AND 10 THOUSAND FEET
OVER THE BIG ISLAND.... RADAR DATA BEARS THAT OUT WITH CLOUD TOPS
CAPPED AT 8 TO 10 THOUSAND FEET. CURRENT 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
ABOUT NEUTRAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR NEAR -8 CELSIUS. THIS WEEKEND
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING BY TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO -10 CELSIUS OVER THE
NORTHERN ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND OAHU. THE SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPS MAY
ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE VERTICAL CLOUD GROWTH AND AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE STATE WILL KEEP A MODERATE TO BREEZY E TO NE
TRADE WIND FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS MOUNTAIN AND N THRU E SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TAF
SITES...BUT SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY IMPACT PHTO...PHLI AND
PHNY.

AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND TO
THE SOUTH THRU WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR TYPICALLY WINDIER
AREAS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...AND HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

THE TRADE WINDS ALSO WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SHORT-PERIOD SURF ALONG
EAST-FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD. A LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL
WILL BUILD TUESDAY...AND THEN PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LIKELY
BRINGING ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF TO SOUTH- FACING SHORES. A TINY NORTH
SWELL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AND A SLIGHTLY LARGER
NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
JELSEMA...AVIATION











000
FXHW60 PHFO 050151
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
351 PM HST MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH
SHOWERS FOCUSED OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES. LEEWARD LOCATIONS OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS WILL SEE A FEW PASSING SHOWERS BUT WILL EXPERIENCE
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. LEEWARD BIG ISLAND AREAS WILL CLOUD UP IN THE
AFTERNOONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE LOWER SLOPES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA NORTH OF THE STATE BRINGING
TRADE WINDS TO THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. RAINFALL WILL
FOCUS OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS OVER
LEEWARD LOCATIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE LEEWARD LOWER SLOPES
OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHTS
AND MORNINGS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOONS. TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN ALMOST DUE EAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND WINDS CONVERGING ON THE LEE SIDE OF MOLOKAI
MAY BRING SOME QUICK HITTING SHOWERS TO EAST OAHU AND CENTRAL
AREAS OF HONOLULU.

MIMIC SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOW SOME SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED AREAS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE PUSHING TOWARD THE ISLAND
CHAIN. ONE BATCH OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE WINDWARD
BIG ISLAND AND WILL BRING CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE SECOND IS FARTHER UPSTREAM AND WILL REACH THE WINDWARD
AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS TONIGHT...INCREASING SHOWERS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN RATES ARE EXPECTED
WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF DOWNPOUR WITH THESE SHOWERS.

AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CURRENT TRADE WIND TEMPERATURE
INVERSION IS NEAR 9 THOUSAND FEET OVER KAUAI AND 10 THOUSAND FEET
OVER THE BIG ISLAND.... RADAR DATA BEARS THAT OUT WITH CLOUD TOPS
CAPPED AT 8 TO 10 THOUSAND FEET. CURRENT 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
ABOUT NEUTRAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR NEAR -8 CELSIUS. THIS WEEKEND
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING BY TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO -10 CELSIUS OVER THE
NORTHERN ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND OAHU. THE SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPS MAY
ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE VERTICAL CLOUD GROWTH AND AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE STATE WILL KEEP A MODERATE TO BREEZY E TO NE
TRADE WIND FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS MOUNTAIN AND N THRU E SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TAF
SITES...BUT SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY IMPACT PHTO...PHLI AND
PHNY.

AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND TO
THE SOUTH THRU WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR TYPICALLY WINDIER
AREAS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...AND HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

THE TRADE WINDS ALSO WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SHORT-PERIOD SURF ALONG
EAST-FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD. A LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL
WILL BUILD TUESDAY...AND THEN PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LIKELY
BRINGING ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF TO SOUTH- FACING SHORES. A TINY NORTH
SWELL IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AND A SLIGHTLY
LARGER NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
JELSEMA...AVIATION








000
FXHW60 PHFO 050151
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
351 PM HST MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH
SHOWERS FOCUSED OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES. LEEWARD LOCATIONS OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS WILL SEE A FEW PASSING SHOWERS BUT WILL EXPERIENCE
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. LEEWARD BIG ISLAND AREAS WILL CLOUD UP IN THE
AFTERNOONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE LOWER SLOPES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA NORTH OF THE STATE BRINGING
TRADE WINDS TO THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. RAINFALL WILL
FOCUS OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS OVER
LEEWARD LOCATIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE LEEWARD LOWER SLOPES
OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHTS
AND MORNINGS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOONS. TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN ALMOST DUE EAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND WINDS CONVERGING ON THE LEE SIDE OF MOLOKAI
MAY BRING SOME QUICK HITTING SHOWERS TO EAST OAHU AND CENTRAL
AREAS OF HONOLULU.

MIMIC SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOW SOME SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED AREAS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE PUSHING TOWARD THE ISLAND
CHAIN. ONE BATCH OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE WINDWARD
BIG ISLAND AND WILL BRING CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE SECOND IS FARTHER UPSTREAM AND WILL REACH THE WINDWARD
AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS TONIGHT...INCREASING SHOWERS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN RATES ARE EXPECTED
WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF DOWNPOUR WITH THESE SHOWERS.

AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CURRENT TRADE WIND TEMPERATURE
INVERSION IS NEAR 9 THOUSAND FEET OVER KAUAI AND 10 THOUSAND FEET
OVER THE BIG ISLAND.... RADAR DATA BEARS THAT OUT WITH CLOUD TOPS
CAPPED AT 8 TO 10 THOUSAND FEET. CURRENT 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
ABOUT NEUTRAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR NEAR -8 CELSIUS. THIS WEEKEND
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING BY TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO -10 CELSIUS OVER THE
NORTHERN ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND OAHU. THE SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPS MAY
ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE VERTICAL CLOUD GROWTH AND AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE STATE WILL KEEP A MODERATE TO BREEZY E TO NE
TRADE WIND FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS MOUNTAIN AND N THRU E SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TAF
SITES...BUT SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY IMPACT PHTO...PHLI AND
PHNY.

AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND TO
THE SOUTH THRU WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR TYPICALLY WINDIER
AREAS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...AND HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

THE TRADE WINDS ALSO WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SHORT-PERIOD SURF ALONG
EAST-FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD. A LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL
WILL BUILD TUESDAY...AND THEN PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LIKELY
BRINGING ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF TO SOUTH- FACING SHORES. A TINY NORTH
SWELL IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AND A SLIGHTLY
LARGER NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
JELSEMA...AVIATION







000
FXHW60 PHFO 041953
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
953 AM HST MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH SHOWERS
FOCUSED OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES. LEEWARD LOCATIONS OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS WILL SEE A FEW PASSING SHOWERS BUT WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER. LEEWARD BIG ISLAND AREAS WILL CLOUD UP IN THE
AFTERNOONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE LOWER SLOPES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA NORTH OF THE STATE BRINGING
TRADE WINDS TO THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. RAINFALL WILL
FOCUS OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS OVER
LEEWARD LOCATIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE LEEWARD LOWER SLOPES
OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHTS
AND MORNINGS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOONS. TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN ALMOST DUE EAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND WINDS CONVERGING ON THE LEE SIDE OF MOLOKAI
MAY BRING SOME QUICK HITTING SHOWERS TO EAST OAHU AND CENTRAL
AREAS OF HONOLULU.

MIMIC SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOW A FEW AREAS
OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING ALONG IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW UPSTREAM
OF THE ISLANDS. ONE BATCH OF MOISTURE IS PUSHING INTO THE WINDWARD BIG
ISLAND THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE SECOND IS FARTHER
UPSTREAM AND WILL REACH THE WINDWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS
TONIGHT...INCREASING SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ONLY LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN RATES ARE EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF DOWNPOUR
WITH THESE SHOWERS.

OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CURRENT TRADE WIND TEMPERATURE
INVERSION IS NEAR 9 THOUSAND FEET OVER KAUAI AND 12 THOUSAND FEET
OVER THE BIG ISLAND.... RADAR DATA BEARS THAT OUT SHOWING MOST
SHOWER TOPS AT OR BELOW THE INVERSION HEIGHT WITH A FEW ISOLATED
TOPS PUSHING INTO THE INVERSION AND REACHING 15 THOUSAND FEET.
CURRENT 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT NEUTRAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR NEAR -8 CELSIUS. THIS WEEKEND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
BY TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO NEAR
-10 CELSIUS OVER THE NORTHERN ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND OAHU. THE
SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPS MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE VERTICAL CLOUD
GROWTH AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWER INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE STATE WILL KEEP A MODERATE E TO NE TRADE
WIND FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS MOUNTAIN AND N THRU E SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TAF
SITES...BUT SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY IMPACT PHTO...PHLI AND
PHNY.

AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND TO
THE SOUTH THRU WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND BIG ISLAND. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR TYPICALLY WINDIER
AREAS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...AND HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WINDWARD MAUI WATERS MAY BE ADDED TO THE
SCA LATER TODAY AS EASTERLY TRADES ACCELERATE ALONG THE WINDWARD
COAST OF MOLOKAI.

THE TRADE WINDS ALSO WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SHORT-PERIOD SURF ALONG
EAST-FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD. A LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL
WILL BUILD TUESDAY...AND THEN PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LIKELY
BRINGING ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF TO SOUTH- FACING SHORES. A TINY NORTH
SWELL IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AND A SLIGHTLY
LARGER NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
JELSEMA...AVIATION







000
FXHW60 PHFO 041953
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
953 AM HST MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH SHOWERS
FOCUSED OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES. LEEWARD LOCATIONS OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS WILL SEE A FEW PASSING SHOWERS BUT WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER. LEEWARD BIG ISLAND AREAS WILL CLOUD UP IN THE
AFTERNOONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE LOWER SLOPES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA NORTH OF THE STATE BRINGING
TRADE WINDS TO THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. RAINFALL WILL
FOCUS OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS OVER
LEEWARD LOCATIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE LEEWARD LOWER SLOPES
OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHTS
AND MORNINGS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOONS. TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN ALMOST DUE EAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND WINDS CONVERGING ON THE LEE SIDE OF MOLOKAI
MAY BRING SOME QUICK HITTING SHOWERS TO EAST OAHU AND CENTRAL
AREAS OF HONOLULU.

MIMIC SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOW A FEW AREAS
OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING ALONG IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW UPSTREAM
OF THE ISLANDS. ONE BATCH OF MOISTURE IS PUSHING INTO THE WINDWARD BIG
ISLAND THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE SECOND IS FARTHER
UPSTREAM AND WILL REACH THE WINDWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS
TONIGHT...INCREASING SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ONLY LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN RATES ARE EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF DOWNPOUR
WITH THESE SHOWERS.

OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CURRENT TRADE WIND TEMPERATURE
INVERSION IS NEAR 9 THOUSAND FEET OVER KAUAI AND 12 THOUSAND FEET
OVER THE BIG ISLAND.... RADAR DATA BEARS THAT OUT SHOWING MOST
SHOWER TOPS AT OR BELOW THE INVERSION HEIGHT WITH A FEW ISOLATED
TOPS PUSHING INTO THE INVERSION AND REACHING 15 THOUSAND FEET.
CURRENT 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT NEUTRAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR NEAR -8 CELSIUS. THIS WEEKEND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
BY TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO NEAR
-10 CELSIUS OVER THE NORTHERN ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND OAHU. THE
SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPS MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE VERTICAL CLOUD
GROWTH AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWER INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE STATE WILL KEEP A MODERATE E TO NE TRADE
WIND FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS MOUNTAIN AND N THRU E SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TAF
SITES...BUT SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY IMPACT PHTO...PHLI AND
PHNY.

AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND TO
THE SOUTH THRU WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND BIG ISLAND. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR TYPICALLY WINDIER
AREAS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...AND HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WINDWARD MAUI WATERS MAY BE ADDED TO THE
SCA LATER TODAY AS EASTERLY TRADES ACCELERATE ALONG THE WINDWARD
COAST OF MOLOKAI.

THE TRADE WINDS ALSO WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SHORT-PERIOD SURF ALONG
EAST-FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD. A LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL
WILL BUILD TUESDAY...AND THEN PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LIKELY
BRINGING ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF TO SOUTH- FACING SHORES. A TINY NORTH
SWELL IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AND A SLIGHTLY
LARGER NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
JELSEMA...AVIATION








000
FXHW60 PHFO 041953
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
953 AM HST MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH SHOWERS
FOCUSED OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES. LEEWARD LOCATIONS OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS WILL SEE A FEW PASSING SHOWERS BUT WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER. LEEWARD BIG ISLAND AREAS WILL CLOUD UP IN THE
AFTERNOONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE LOWER SLOPES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA NORTH OF THE STATE BRINGING
TRADE WINDS TO THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. RAINFALL WILL
FOCUS OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS OVER
LEEWARD LOCATIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE LEEWARD LOWER SLOPES
OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHTS
AND MORNINGS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOONS. TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN ALMOST DUE EAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND WINDS CONVERGING ON THE LEE SIDE OF MOLOKAI
MAY BRING SOME QUICK HITTING SHOWERS TO EAST OAHU AND CENTRAL
AREAS OF HONOLULU.

MIMIC SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOW A FEW AREAS
OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING ALONG IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW UPSTREAM
OF THE ISLANDS. ONE BATCH OF MOISTURE IS PUSHING INTO THE WINDWARD BIG
ISLAND THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE SECOND IS FARTHER
UPSTREAM AND WILL REACH THE WINDWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS
TONIGHT...INCREASING SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ONLY LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN RATES ARE EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF DOWNPOUR
WITH THESE SHOWERS.

OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CURRENT TRADE WIND TEMPERATURE
INVERSION IS NEAR 9 THOUSAND FEET OVER KAUAI AND 12 THOUSAND FEET
OVER THE BIG ISLAND.... RADAR DATA BEARS THAT OUT SHOWING MOST
SHOWER TOPS AT OR BELOW THE INVERSION HEIGHT WITH A FEW ISOLATED
TOPS PUSHING INTO THE INVERSION AND REACHING 15 THOUSAND FEET.
CURRENT 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT NEUTRAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR NEAR -8 CELSIUS. THIS WEEKEND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
BY TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO NEAR
-10 CELSIUS OVER THE NORTHERN ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND OAHU. THE
SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPS MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE VERTICAL CLOUD
GROWTH AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWER INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE STATE WILL KEEP A MODERATE E TO NE TRADE
WIND FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS MOUNTAIN AND N THRU E SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TAF
SITES...BUT SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY IMPACT PHTO...PHLI AND
PHNY.

AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND TO
THE SOUTH THRU WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND BIG ISLAND. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR TYPICALLY WINDIER
AREAS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...AND HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WINDWARD MAUI WATERS MAY BE ADDED TO THE
SCA LATER TODAY AS EASTERLY TRADES ACCELERATE ALONG THE WINDWARD
COAST OF MOLOKAI.

THE TRADE WINDS ALSO WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SHORT-PERIOD SURF ALONG
EAST-FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD. A LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL
WILL BUILD TUESDAY...AND THEN PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LIKELY
BRINGING ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF TO SOUTH- FACING SHORES. A TINY NORTH
SWELL IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AND A SLIGHTLY
LARGER NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
JELSEMA...AVIATION







000
FXHW60 PHFO 041953
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
953 AM HST MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH SHOWERS
FOCUSED OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES. LEEWARD LOCATIONS OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS WILL SEE A FEW PASSING SHOWERS BUT WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER. LEEWARD BIG ISLAND AREAS WILL CLOUD UP IN THE
AFTERNOONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE LOWER SLOPES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA NORTH OF THE STATE BRINGING
TRADE WINDS TO THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. RAINFALL WILL
FOCUS OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS OVER
LEEWARD LOCATIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE LEEWARD LOWER SLOPES
OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHTS
AND MORNINGS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOONS. TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN ALMOST DUE EAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND WINDS CONVERGING ON THE LEE SIDE OF MOLOKAI
MAY BRING SOME QUICK HITTING SHOWERS TO EAST OAHU AND CENTRAL
AREAS OF HONOLULU.

MIMIC SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOW A FEW AREAS
OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING ALONG IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW UPSTREAM
OF THE ISLANDS. ONE BATCH OF MOISTURE IS PUSHING INTO THE WINDWARD BIG
ISLAND THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE SECOND IS FARTHER
UPSTREAM AND WILL REACH THE WINDWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS
TONIGHT...INCREASING SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ONLY LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN RATES ARE EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF DOWNPOUR
WITH THESE SHOWERS.

OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CURRENT TRADE WIND TEMPERATURE
INVERSION IS NEAR 9 THOUSAND FEET OVER KAUAI AND 12 THOUSAND FEET
OVER THE BIG ISLAND.... RADAR DATA BEARS THAT OUT SHOWING MOST
SHOWER TOPS AT OR BELOW THE INVERSION HEIGHT WITH A FEW ISOLATED
TOPS PUSHING INTO THE INVERSION AND REACHING 15 THOUSAND FEET.
CURRENT 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT NEUTRAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR NEAR -8 CELSIUS. THIS WEEKEND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
BY TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO NEAR
-10 CELSIUS OVER THE NORTHERN ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND OAHU. THE
SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPS MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE VERTICAL CLOUD
GROWTH AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWER INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE STATE WILL KEEP A MODERATE E TO NE TRADE
WIND FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS MOUNTAIN AND N THRU E SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TAF
SITES...BUT SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY IMPACT PHTO...PHLI AND
PHNY.

AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND TO
THE SOUTH THRU WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND BIG ISLAND. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR TYPICALLY WINDIER
AREAS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...AND HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WINDWARD MAUI WATERS MAY BE ADDED TO THE
SCA LATER TODAY AS EASTERLY TRADES ACCELERATE ALONG THE WINDWARD
COAST OF MOLOKAI.

THE TRADE WINDS ALSO WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SHORT-PERIOD SURF ALONG
EAST-FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD. A LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL
WILL BUILD TUESDAY...AND THEN PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LIKELY
BRINGING ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF TO SOUTH- FACING SHORES. A TINY NORTH
SWELL IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AND A SLIGHTLY
LARGER NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
JELSEMA...AVIATION








000
FXHW60 PHFO 041330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...STRENGTHENING SOMEWHAT
INTO MID-WEEK...AND THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN BY FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL BE MOST ACTIVE OVER WINDWARD SLOPES...THOUGH A FEW MAY
DRIFT LEEWARD AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REPORTED
MODERATE TRADE WINDS...THOUGH BUOY DATA AND A GOOD SCATTEROMETER
PASS FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING SUGGESTED LOCALLY HIGHER SPEEDS
OVER THE USUALLY WINDY COASTAL WATERS. CLOUD MOTIONS UPWIND OF THE
STATE AND SOUNDING DATA ALSO SHOWED THE WINDS EXTENDING THROUGH MOST
OF THE MIXED LAYER BELOW THE INVERSION.

THE INVERSION ITSELF HAD RISEN DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS...WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY IN THE PROCESS. PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE STATE ALSO HAD
INCREASED AS A LOOSE CLUSTER OF SHOWERY CUMULI AND STRATOCUMULI
MOVED ASHORE FROM THE BIG ISLAND TO OAHU...AND THREATENED TO REACH
KAUAI LATER THIS MORNING. INDIVIDUAL SMALL SHOWERS ALSO WILL
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE OVER WINDWARD SLOPES THROUGH THE WEEK.

ALOFT...BROAD ZONAL RIDGING ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN
KEPT THE MAIN PART OF THE STORM TRACK WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS...BUT SHALLOW EXTENSIONS OF PASSING TROUGHS AND RIDGES DID
REACH THE STATE. THESE WAVES...AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE SURFACE...WILL BRING MOST OF THE CHANGES TO
LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK.

THE MOST RECENT GFS RUN SHOWED A NOTICEABLE SHIFT IN PHASE...BUT
CONTINUITY STILL FAVORED THE FOLLOWING SCENARIO. INTO WEDNESDAY...
CRESTING RIDGING ALOFT...AND THEN AT THE SURFACE IN REACTION...WILL
TEND TO SUPPORT GRADUAL INCREASES IN WIND SPEED. THEN...FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWING TROUGHING ALOFT...AND A FEEBLE
FRONT ERODING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE SURFACE...WILL TEND TO
REDUCE WIND SPEEDS. ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE TEMPTING TO PREDICT TRENDS IN
TRADE-WIND SHOWERS SIMPLY FROM MODEL CONSENSUS PRECIPITABLE
WATER...IN PRACTICE THE CORRELATION TENDS TO BE LESS THAN IDEAL.
THUS...POPS AND RELATED FIELDS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAVE BEEN
TRENDED SLIGHTLY BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY.

ADDITIONAL RUNS SHOULD BE INSTRUCTIVE...AND IF CONSENSUS AGREES WITH
THE PHASE SHIFT IN THE PASSING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS...THEN THE OVERALL
TREND FOR THE WEEK MAY NEED REVISION. ON THE OTHER HAND...CONDITIONS
SHOULD NOT DEVIATE TOO GREATLY FROM CLIMATOLOGY EITHER WAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR TYPICALLY WINDIER
AREAS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...AND LIKELY WILL BE EXTENDED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ITS AREA OF EFFECT ALSO MAY EXPAND AROUND
TUESDAY...AND THEN AGAIN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE TRADE WINDS ALSO WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SHORT-PERIOD SURF ALONG
EAST-FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD. A LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL
WILL BUILD GRADUALLY ON TUESDAY...AND THEN PEAK FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...LIKELY BRINGING ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF TO SOUTH-FACING
SHORES. A TINY NORTH SWELL IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AND A SLIGHTLY LARGER NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS

&&

$$

RYSHKO






000
FXHW60 PHFO 041330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...STRENGTHENING SOMEWHAT
INTO MID-WEEK...AND THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN BY FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL BE MOST ACTIVE OVER WINDWARD SLOPES...THOUGH A FEW MAY
DRIFT LEEWARD AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REPORTED
MODERATE TRADE WINDS...THOUGH BUOY DATA AND A GOOD SCATTEROMETER
PASS FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING SUGGESTED LOCALLY HIGHER SPEEDS
OVER THE USUALLY WINDY COASTAL WATERS. CLOUD MOTIONS UPWIND OF THE
STATE AND SOUNDING DATA ALSO SHOWED THE WINDS EXTENDING THROUGH MOST
OF THE MIXED LAYER BELOW THE INVERSION.

THE INVERSION ITSELF HAD RISEN DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS...WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY IN THE PROCESS. PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE STATE ALSO HAD
INCREASED AS A LOOSE CLUSTER OF SHOWERY CUMULI AND STRATOCUMULI
MOVED ASHORE FROM THE BIG ISLAND TO OAHU...AND THREATENED TO REACH
KAUAI LATER THIS MORNING. INDIVIDUAL SMALL SHOWERS ALSO WILL
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE OVER WINDWARD SLOPES THROUGH THE WEEK.

ALOFT...BROAD ZONAL RIDGING ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN
KEPT THE MAIN PART OF THE STORM TRACK WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS...BUT SHALLOW EXTENSIONS OF PASSING TROUGHS AND RIDGES DID
REACH THE STATE. THESE WAVES...AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE SURFACE...WILL BRING MOST OF THE CHANGES TO
LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK.

THE MOST RECENT GFS RUN SHOWED A NOTICEABLE SHIFT IN PHASE...BUT
CONTINUITY STILL FAVORED THE FOLLOWING SCENARIO. INTO WEDNESDAY...
CRESTING RIDGING ALOFT...AND THEN AT THE SURFACE IN REACTION...WILL
TEND TO SUPPORT GRADUAL INCREASES IN WIND SPEED. THEN...FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWING TROUGHING ALOFT...AND A FEEBLE
FRONT ERODING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE SURFACE...WILL TEND TO
REDUCE WIND SPEEDS. ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE TEMPTING TO PREDICT TRENDS IN
TRADE-WIND SHOWERS SIMPLY FROM MODEL CONSENSUS PRECIPITABLE
WATER...IN PRACTICE THE CORRELATION TENDS TO BE LESS THAN IDEAL.
THUS...POPS AND RELATED FIELDS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAVE BEEN
TRENDED SLIGHTLY BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY.

ADDITIONAL RUNS SHOULD BE INSTRUCTIVE...AND IF CONSENSUS AGREES WITH
THE PHASE SHIFT IN THE PASSING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS...THEN THE OVERALL
TREND FOR THE WEEK MAY NEED REVISION. ON THE OTHER HAND...CONDITIONS
SHOULD NOT DEVIATE TOO GREATLY FROM CLIMATOLOGY EITHER WAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR TYPICALLY WINDIER
AREAS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...AND LIKELY WILL BE EXTENDED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ITS AREA OF EFFECT ALSO MAY EXPAND AROUND
TUESDAY...AND THEN AGAIN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE TRADE WINDS ALSO WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SHORT-PERIOD SURF ALONG
EAST-FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD. A LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL
WILL BUILD GRADUALLY ON TUESDAY...AND THEN PEAK FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...LIKELY BRINGING ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF TO SOUTH-FACING
SHORES. A TINY NORTH SWELL IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AND A SLIGHTLY LARGER NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS

&&

$$

RYSHKO







000
FXHW60 PHFO 040608
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...STRENGTHENING SOMEWHAT
INTO MID-WEEK...AND THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN BY FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL BE MOST ACTIVE OVER WINDWARD SLOPES...THOUGH A FEW MAY
DRIFT LEEWARD AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REPORTED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS. CLOUD MOTIONS UPWIND OF THE STATE...AND
SOUNDING DATA FROM LIHUE...SUGGESTED THAT THE WINDS EXTENDED THROUGH
MOST OF THE MIXED LAYER BELOW THE INVERSION. LIGHTER WINDS OVER HILO
PROBABLY REPRESENTED LOCAL STAGNATION OF THE FLOW UPWIND OF THE HIGH
PEAKS...RATHER THAN THE GENERAL ENVIRONMENT.

THE INVERSION ITSELF WAS SOLID...BUT NOT EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG...AND
SLOPED FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW ITS USUAL HEIGHT AT LIHUE TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AT HILO. PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE STATE WAS ON THE LOW SIDE
EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT A LOOSE CLUSTER OF SHOWERY CUMULI AND
STRATOCUMULI LIKELY WILL BRING SOME MODESTLY ORGANIZED RAIN TO
WINDWARD SLOPES LATER THIS EVENING. INDIVIDUAL SMALL SHOWERS ALSO
WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE OVER WINDWARD SLOPES THROUGH THE WEEK.

ALOFT...BROAD ZONAL RIDGING ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN
KEPT THE MAIN PART OF THE STORM TRACK WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS...BUT SHALLOW EXTENSIONS OF PASSING TROUGHS AND RIDGES
REACHED THE STATE. THESE WAVES...AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE SURFACE...WILL BRING MOST OF THE CHANGES TO
LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK.

FROM THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY...CRESTING RIDGING ALOFT...AND THEN
AT THE SURFACE IN REACTION...WILL TEND TO SUPPORT GRADUAL INCREASES
IN WIND SPEED. THEN...FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWING
TROUGHING ALOFT...AND A FEEBLE FRONT ERODING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AT THE SURFACE... WILL TEND TO REDUCE WIND SPEEDS. ALTHOUGH IT MAY
BE TEMPTING TO PREDICT TRENDS IN TRADE-WIND SHOWERS SIMPLY FROM
MODEL CONSENSUS PRECIPITABLE WATER...IN PRACTICE THE CORRELATION IS
LESS THAN IDEAL. THUS...POPS AND RELATED FIELDS IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LIKELY WILL BE TRENDED SLIGHTLY BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR TYPICALLY WINDIER
AREAS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...AND LIKELY WILL BE EXTENDED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ITS AREA OF EFFECT ALSO MAY EXPAND BY
TUESDAY...AND THEN AGAIN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE TRADE WINDS ALSO WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SHORT-PERIOD SURF ALONG
EAST-FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD. A LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL
WILL BUILD GRADUALLY ON TUESDAY...AND THEN PEAK FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...LIKELY BRINGING ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF TO SOUTH-FACING
SHORES. A TINY NORTH SWELL IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AND A SLIGHTLY LARGER NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

RYSHKO






000
FXHW60 PHFO 040608
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...STRENGTHENING SOMEWHAT
INTO MID-WEEK...AND THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN BY FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL BE MOST ACTIVE OVER WINDWARD SLOPES...THOUGH A FEW MAY
DRIFT LEEWARD AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REPORTED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS. CLOUD MOTIONS UPWIND OF THE STATE...AND
SOUNDING DATA FROM LIHUE...SUGGESTED THAT THE WINDS EXTENDED THROUGH
MOST OF THE MIXED LAYER BELOW THE INVERSION. LIGHTER WINDS OVER HILO
PROBABLY REPRESENTED LOCAL STAGNATION OF THE FLOW UPWIND OF THE HIGH
PEAKS...RATHER THAN THE GENERAL ENVIRONMENT.

THE INVERSION ITSELF WAS SOLID...BUT NOT EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG...AND
SLOPED FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW ITS USUAL HEIGHT AT LIHUE TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AT HILO. PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE STATE WAS ON THE LOW SIDE
EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT A LOOSE CLUSTER OF SHOWERY CUMULI AND
STRATOCUMULI LIKELY WILL BRING SOME MODESTLY ORGANIZED RAIN TO
WINDWARD SLOPES LATER THIS EVENING. INDIVIDUAL SMALL SHOWERS ALSO
WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE OVER WINDWARD SLOPES THROUGH THE WEEK.

ALOFT...BROAD ZONAL RIDGING ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN
KEPT THE MAIN PART OF THE STORM TRACK WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS...BUT SHALLOW EXTENSIONS OF PASSING TROUGHS AND RIDGES
REACHED THE STATE. THESE WAVES...AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE SURFACE...WILL BRING MOST OF THE CHANGES TO
LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK.

FROM THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY...CRESTING RIDGING ALOFT...AND THEN
AT THE SURFACE IN REACTION...WILL TEND TO SUPPORT GRADUAL INCREASES
IN WIND SPEED. THEN...FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWING
TROUGHING ALOFT...AND A FEEBLE FRONT ERODING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AT THE SURFACE... WILL TEND TO REDUCE WIND SPEEDS. ALTHOUGH IT MAY
BE TEMPTING TO PREDICT TRENDS IN TRADE-WIND SHOWERS SIMPLY FROM
MODEL CONSENSUS PRECIPITABLE WATER...IN PRACTICE THE CORRELATION IS
LESS THAN IDEAL. THUS...POPS AND RELATED FIELDS IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LIKELY WILL BE TRENDED SLIGHTLY BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR TYPICALLY WINDIER
AREAS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...AND LIKELY WILL BE EXTENDED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ITS AREA OF EFFECT ALSO MAY EXPAND BY
TUESDAY...AND THEN AGAIN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE TRADE WINDS ALSO WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SHORT-PERIOD SURF ALONG
EAST-FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD. A LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL
WILL BUILD GRADUALLY ON TUESDAY...AND THEN PEAK FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...LIKELY BRINGING ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF TO SOUTH-FACING
SHORES. A TINY NORTH SWELL IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AND A SLIGHTLY LARGER NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

RYSHKO







000
FXHW60 PHFO 040608
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...STRENGTHENING SOMEWHAT
INTO MID-WEEK...AND THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN BY FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL BE MOST ACTIVE OVER WINDWARD SLOPES...THOUGH A FEW MAY
DRIFT LEEWARD AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REPORTED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS. CLOUD MOTIONS UPWIND OF THE STATE...AND
SOUNDING DATA FROM LIHUE...SUGGESTED THAT THE WINDS EXTENDED THROUGH
MOST OF THE MIXED LAYER BELOW THE INVERSION. LIGHTER WINDS OVER HILO
PROBABLY REPRESENTED LOCAL STAGNATION OF THE FLOW UPWIND OF THE HIGH
PEAKS...RATHER THAN THE GENERAL ENVIRONMENT.

THE INVERSION ITSELF WAS SOLID...BUT NOT EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG...AND
SLOPED FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW ITS USUAL HEIGHT AT LIHUE TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AT HILO. PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE STATE WAS ON THE LOW SIDE
EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT A LOOSE CLUSTER OF SHOWERY CUMULI AND
STRATOCUMULI LIKELY WILL BRING SOME MODESTLY ORGANIZED RAIN TO
WINDWARD SLOPES LATER THIS EVENING. INDIVIDUAL SMALL SHOWERS ALSO
WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE OVER WINDWARD SLOPES THROUGH THE WEEK.

ALOFT...BROAD ZONAL RIDGING ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN
KEPT THE MAIN PART OF THE STORM TRACK WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS...BUT SHALLOW EXTENSIONS OF PASSING TROUGHS AND RIDGES
REACHED THE STATE. THESE WAVES...AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE SURFACE...WILL BRING MOST OF THE CHANGES TO
LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK.

FROM THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY...CRESTING RIDGING ALOFT...AND THEN
AT THE SURFACE IN REACTION...WILL TEND TO SUPPORT GRADUAL INCREASES
IN WIND SPEED. THEN...FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWING
TROUGHING ALOFT...AND A FEEBLE FRONT ERODING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AT THE SURFACE... WILL TEND TO REDUCE WIND SPEEDS. ALTHOUGH IT MAY
BE TEMPTING TO PREDICT TRENDS IN TRADE-WIND SHOWERS SIMPLY FROM
MODEL CONSENSUS PRECIPITABLE WATER...IN PRACTICE THE CORRELATION IS
LESS THAN IDEAL. THUS...POPS AND RELATED FIELDS IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LIKELY WILL BE TRENDED SLIGHTLY BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR TYPICALLY WINDIER
AREAS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...AND LIKELY WILL BE EXTENDED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ITS AREA OF EFFECT ALSO MAY EXPAND BY
TUESDAY...AND THEN AGAIN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE TRADE WINDS ALSO WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SHORT-PERIOD SURF ALONG
EAST-FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD. A LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL
WILL BUILD GRADUALLY ON TUESDAY...AND THEN PEAK FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...LIKELY BRINGING ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF TO SOUTH-FACING
SHORES. A TINY NORTH SWELL IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AND A SLIGHTLY LARGER NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

RYSHKO







000
FXHW60 PHFO 040608
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...STRENGTHENING SOMEWHAT
INTO MID-WEEK...AND THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN BY FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL BE MOST ACTIVE OVER WINDWARD SLOPES...THOUGH A FEW MAY
DRIFT LEEWARD AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REPORTED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS. CLOUD MOTIONS UPWIND OF THE STATE...AND
SOUNDING DATA FROM LIHUE...SUGGESTED THAT THE WINDS EXTENDED THROUGH
MOST OF THE MIXED LAYER BELOW THE INVERSION. LIGHTER WINDS OVER HILO
PROBABLY REPRESENTED LOCAL STAGNATION OF THE FLOW UPWIND OF THE HIGH
PEAKS...RATHER THAN THE GENERAL ENVIRONMENT.

THE INVERSION ITSELF WAS SOLID...BUT NOT EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG...AND
SLOPED FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW ITS USUAL HEIGHT AT LIHUE TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AT HILO. PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE STATE WAS ON THE LOW SIDE
EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT A LOOSE CLUSTER OF SHOWERY CUMULI AND
STRATOCUMULI LIKELY WILL BRING SOME MODESTLY ORGANIZED RAIN TO
WINDWARD SLOPES LATER THIS EVENING. INDIVIDUAL SMALL SHOWERS ALSO
WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE OVER WINDWARD SLOPES THROUGH THE WEEK.

ALOFT...BROAD ZONAL RIDGING ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN
KEPT THE MAIN PART OF THE STORM TRACK WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS...BUT SHALLOW EXTENSIONS OF PASSING TROUGHS AND RIDGES
REACHED THE STATE. THESE WAVES...AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE SURFACE...WILL BRING MOST OF THE CHANGES TO
LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK.

FROM THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY...CRESTING RIDGING ALOFT...AND THEN
AT THE SURFACE IN REACTION...WILL TEND TO SUPPORT GRADUAL INCREASES
IN WIND SPEED. THEN...FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWING
TROUGHING ALOFT...AND A FEEBLE FRONT ERODING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AT THE SURFACE... WILL TEND TO REDUCE WIND SPEEDS. ALTHOUGH IT MAY
BE TEMPTING TO PREDICT TRENDS IN TRADE-WIND SHOWERS SIMPLY FROM
MODEL CONSENSUS PRECIPITABLE WATER...IN PRACTICE THE CORRELATION IS
LESS THAN IDEAL. THUS...POPS AND RELATED FIELDS IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LIKELY WILL BE TRENDED SLIGHTLY BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR TYPICALLY WINDIER
AREAS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...AND LIKELY WILL BE EXTENDED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ITS AREA OF EFFECT ALSO MAY EXPAND BY
TUESDAY...AND THEN AGAIN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE TRADE WINDS ALSO WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SHORT-PERIOD SURF ALONG
EAST-FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD. A LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL
WILL BUILD GRADUALLY ON TUESDAY...AND THEN PEAK FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...LIKELY BRINGING ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF TO SOUTH-FACING
SHORES. A TINY NORTH SWELL IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AND A SLIGHTLY LARGER NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

RYSHKO






000
FXHW60 PHFO 040133
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. POCKETS OF MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADE
WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY BOOST SHOWER COVERAGE...ALLOWING A FEW
SHOWERS TO SPREAD TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE STATE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR
TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO
OUR NORTH. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS RANGING FROM 6KFT AT LIHUE
TO 9KFT AT HILO...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ALSO RANGING FROM 0.8
INCHES TO 0.96 INCHES RESPECTIVELY. LATE MORNING MIMIC TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF MOISTURE NEAR MAUI
COUNTY...WITH DRIER AIR AT THE FLANKS OF THE STATE. ANOTHER BAND OF
MOISTURE OVER 100 MILES WIDE IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND...WITH THE DRIER AIR FARTHER UPSTREAM TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE STATE IS BEING IMPINGED UPON BY A
FRONT FROM THE NORTH...CAUSING IT TO WEAKEN AND WINDS OVER STATE TO
DROP OFF A NOTCH. SURFACE PRESSURES AT AIRPORTS ACROSS THE ISLANDS
ARE ABOUT 1MB LOWER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. THE HIGH SHOULD
RESTRENGTHEN BRIEFLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE FRONT
DISSIPATES AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AMPLIFY...CAUSING WINDS TO TURN
LOCALLY BREEZY ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SECOND FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE HIGH FROM THE WEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK WILL CAUSE IT WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. DURING
THIS PERIOD...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. POCKETS OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE
FLOW WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS AT TIME...WHICH WILL ALSO SPILL OVER TO
LEEWARD AREAS AS WELL. SMALL FEATURES LIKE THESE ARE DIFFICULT TO
TIME...BUT ONE BAND MAY MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.

AS THE CURRENT HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS...A NEW HIGH WILL
BUILD IN NORTH OF THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS NEW HIGH WILL
BRING ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS DURING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL KEEP A MODERATE E TO NE
TRADE WIND FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS MOUNTAIN AND NORTH THRU EAST SECTIONS OF
THE ISLANDS. TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS MAY AFFECT PHNY THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND PHTO AND PHLI OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL.

AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND TO
THE SOUTH THRU WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH THRU EAST SECTIONS OF SOME OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDIER
AREAS NEAR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE ADVISORY MAY BE EXPANDED IN AREA BY
TUESDAY...AND AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHEN TRADE WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAILING OVER AND UPWIND OF THE
STATE WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SHORT-PERIOD SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER SURF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD ON TUESDAY AND PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LIKELY BRINGING
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF TO SOUTH FACING SHORES. A TINY NORTH SWELL IS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A SLIGHTLY LARGER
NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...JELSEMA







000
FXHW60 PHFO 040133
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. POCKETS OF MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADE
WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY BOOST SHOWER COVERAGE...ALLOWING A FEW
SHOWERS TO SPREAD TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE STATE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR
TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO
OUR NORTH. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS RANGING FROM 6KFT AT LIHUE
TO 9KFT AT HILO...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ALSO RANGING FROM 0.8
INCHES TO 0.96 INCHES RESPECTIVELY. LATE MORNING MIMIC TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF MOISTURE NEAR MAUI
COUNTY...WITH DRIER AIR AT THE FLANKS OF THE STATE. ANOTHER BAND OF
MOISTURE OVER 100 MILES WIDE IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND...WITH THE DRIER AIR FARTHER UPSTREAM TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE STATE IS BEING IMPINGED UPON BY A
FRONT FROM THE NORTH...CAUSING IT TO WEAKEN AND WINDS OVER STATE TO
DROP OFF A NOTCH. SURFACE PRESSURES AT AIRPORTS ACROSS THE ISLANDS
ARE ABOUT 1MB LOWER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. THE HIGH SHOULD
RESTRENGTHEN BRIEFLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE FRONT
DISSIPATES AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AMPLIFY...CAUSING WINDS TO TURN
LOCALLY BREEZY ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SECOND FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE HIGH FROM THE WEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK WILL CAUSE IT WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. DURING
THIS PERIOD...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. POCKETS OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE
FLOW WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS AT TIME...WHICH WILL ALSO SPILL OVER TO
LEEWARD AREAS AS WELL. SMALL FEATURES LIKE THESE ARE DIFFICULT TO
TIME...BUT ONE BAND MAY MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.

AS THE CURRENT HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS...A NEW HIGH WILL
BUILD IN NORTH OF THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS NEW HIGH WILL
BRING ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS DURING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL KEEP A MODERATE E TO NE
TRADE WIND FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS MOUNTAIN AND NORTH THRU EAST SECTIONS OF
THE ISLANDS. TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS MAY AFFECT PHNY THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND PHTO AND PHLI OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL.

AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND TO
THE SOUTH THRU WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH THRU EAST SECTIONS OF SOME OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDIER
AREAS NEAR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE ADVISORY MAY BE EXPANDED IN AREA BY
TUESDAY...AND AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHEN TRADE WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAILING OVER AND UPWIND OF THE
STATE WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SHORT-PERIOD SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER SURF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD ON TUESDAY AND PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LIKELY BRINGING
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF TO SOUTH FACING SHORES. A TINY NORTH SWELL IS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A SLIGHTLY LARGER
NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...JELSEMA






000
FXHW60 PHFO 040133
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. POCKETS OF MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADE
WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY BOOST SHOWER COVERAGE...ALLOWING A FEW
SHOWERS TO SPREAD TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE STATE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR
TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO
OUR NORTH. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS RANGING FROM 6KFT AT LIHUE
TO 9KFT AT HILO...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ALSO RANGING FROM 0.8
INCHES TO 0.96 INCHES RESPECTIVELY. LATE MORNING MIMIC TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF MOISTURE NEAR MAUI
COUNTY...WITH DRIER AIR AT THE FLANKS OF THE STATE. ANOTHER BAND OF
MOISTURE OVER 100 MILES WIDE IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND...WITH THE DRIER AIR FARTHER UPSTREAM TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE STATE IS BEING IMPINGED UPON BY A
FRONT FROM THE NORTH...CAUSING IT TO WEAKEN AND WINDS OVER STATE TO
DROP OFF A NOTCH. SURFACE PRESSURES AT AIRPORTS ACROSS THE ISLANDS
ARE ABOUT 1MB LOWER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. THE HIGH SHOULD
RESTRENGTHEN BRIEFLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE FRONT
DISSIPATES AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AMPLIFY...CAUSING WINDS TO TURN
LOCALLY BREEZY ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SECOND FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE HIGH FROM THE WEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK WILL CAUSE IT WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. DURING
THIS PERIOD...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. POCKETS OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE
FLOW WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS AT TIME...WHICH WILL ALSO SPILL OVER TO
LEEWARD AREAS AS WELL. SMALL FEATURES LIKE THESE ARE DIFFICULT TO
TIME...BUT ONE BAND MAY MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.

AS THE CURRENT HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS...A NEW HIGH WILL
BUILD IN NORTH OF THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS NEW HIGH WILL
BRING ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS DURING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL KEEP A MODERATE E TO NE
TRADE WIND FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS MOUNTAIN AND NORTH THRU EAST SECTIONS OF
THE ISLANDS. TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS MAY AFFECT PHNY THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND PHTO AND PHLI OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL.

AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND TO
THE SOUTH THRU WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH THRU EAST SECTIONS OF SOME OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDIER
AREAS NEAR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE ADVISORY MAY BE EXPANDED IN AREA BY
TUESDAY...AND AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHEN TRADE WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAILING OVER AND UPWIND OF THE
STATE WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SHORT-PERIOD SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER SURF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD ON TUESDAY AND PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LIKELY BRINGING
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF TO SOUTH FACING SHORES. A TINY NORTH SWELL IS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A SLIGHTLY LARGER
NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...JELSEMA







000
FXHW60 PHFO 040133
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. POCKETS OF MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADE
WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY BOOST SHOWER COVERAGE...ALLOWING A FEW
SHOWERS TO SPREAD TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE STATE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR
TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO
OUR NORTH. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS RANGING FROM 6KFT AT LIHUE
TO 9KFT AT HILO...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ALSO RANGING FROM 0.8
INCHES TO 0.96 INCHES RESPECTIVELY. LATE MORNING MIMIC TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF MOISTURE NEAR MAUI
COUNTY...WITH DRIER AIR AT THE FLANKS OF THE STATE. ANOTHER BAND OF
MOISTURE OVER 100 MILES WIDE IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND...WITH THE DRIER AIR FARTHER UPSTREAM TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE STATE IS BEING IMPINGED UPON BY A
FRONT FROM THE NORTH...CAUSING IT TO WEAKEN AND WINDS OVER STATE TO
DROP OFF A NOTCH. SURFACE PRESSURES AT AIRPORTS ACROSS THE ISLANDS
ARE ABOUT 1MB LOWER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. THE HIGH SHOULD
RESTRENGTHEN BRIEFLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE FRONT
DISSIPATES AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AMPLIFY...CAUSING WINDS TO TURN
LOCALLY BREEZY ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SECOND FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE HIGH FROM THE WEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK WILL CAUSE IT WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. DURING
THIS PERIOD...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. POCKETS OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE
FLOW WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS AT TIME...WHICH WILL ALSO SPILL OVER TO
LEEWARD AREAS AS WELL. SMALL FEATURES LIKE THESE ARE DIFFICULT TO
TIME...BUT ONE BAND MAY MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.

AS THE CURRENT HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS...A NEW HIGH WILL
BUILD IN NORTH OF THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS NEW HIGH WILL
BRING ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS DURING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL KEEP A MODERATE E TO NE
TRADE WIND FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS MOUNTAIN AND NORTH THRU EAST SECTIONS OF
THE ISLANDS. TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS MAY AFFECT PHNY THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND PHTO AND PHLI OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL.

AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND TO
THE SOUTH THRU WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH THRU EAST SECTIONS OF SOME OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDIER
AREAS NEAR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE ADVISORY MAY BE EXPANDED IN AREA BY
TUESDAY...AND AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHEN TRADE WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAILING OVER AND UPWIND OF THE
STATE WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SHORT-PERIOD SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER SURF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD ON TUESDAY AND PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LIKELY BRINGING
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF TO SOUTH FACING SHORES. A TINY NORTH SWELL IS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A SLIGHTLY LARGER
NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...JELSEMA






000
FXHW60 PHFO 031937
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
BREEZY TRADES EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL BE STABLE...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS. POCKETS OF MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADE WINDS WILL
PERIODICALLY BOOST SHOWER COVERAGE...ALLOWING A FEW SHOWERS TO
SPREAD TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE STATE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS
WELL TO THE SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR TO
THE NORTHEAST...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO OUR
NORTH. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS RANGING FROM 7KFT AT LIHUE TO
10KFT AT HILO...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ALSO 1.07 INCHES AND 1.32
INCHES RESPECTIVELY. EARLY MORNING MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE
EAST...WITH POCKETS OF LOWER PW AIR NEAR/BELOW 1 INCH EXTENDING WELL
UPSTREAM TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE STATE.

THE SURFACE HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE STATE IS BEING IMPINGED UPON BY A
FRONT FROM THE NORTH...CAUSING IT TO WEAKEN AND WINDS OVER STATE TO
DROP OFF A NOTCH. SURFACE PRESSURES AT AIRPORTS ACROSS THE ISLANDS
ARE ABOUT 1MB LOWER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. THE HIGH SHOULD
RESTRENGTHEN BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AMPLIFY...CAUSING WINDS TO TURN LOCALLY BREEZY
ONCE AGAIN BY TUESDAY. A SECOND FRONT PUSHING INTO THE HIGH FROM THE
WEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL CAUSE IT WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. DURING THIS PERIOD...CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
POCKETS OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE FLOW WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS
AT TIME...WHICH WILL ALSO SPILL OVER TO LEEWARD AREAS AS WELL. SMALL
FEATURES LIKE THESE ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT ONE BAND MAY MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.

AS THE CURRENT HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS...A NEW HIGH WILL
BUILD IN NORTH OF THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS NEW HIGH WILL
BRING ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS DURING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP A MODERATE E TO NE TRADE
WIND FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FOCUSED
PRIMARILY ACROSS MOUNTAIN AND NORTH THRU EAST SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS. TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS MAY IMPACT PHTO THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. COULD ALSO SEE TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS AT PHNY FROM LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...MVFR CIGS MAY AFFECT PHTO
AND PHLI. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING.

AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND TO
THE SOUTH THRU WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDIER
AREAS NEAR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE ADVISORY MAY BE EXPANDED IN AREA
AROUND TUESDAY...AND AGAIN AROUND FRIDAY...WHEN TRADE WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAILING OVER AND UPWIND OF THE
STATE WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SHORT-PERIOD SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER SURF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD ON TUESDAY AND PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LIKELY BRINGING
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF TO SOUTH FACING SHORES. A TINY NORTH SWELL IS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A SLIGHTLY LARGER
NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY... AND
THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...JELSEMA







000
FXHW60 PHFO 031937
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
BREEZY TRADES EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL BE STABLE...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS. POCKETS OF MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADE WINDS WILL
PERIODICALLY BOOST SHOWER COVERAGE...ALLOWING A FEW SHOWERS TO
SPREAD TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE STATE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS
WELL TO THE SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR TO
THE NORTHEAST...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO OUR
NORTH. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS RANGING FROM 7KFT AT LIHUE TO
10KFT AT HILO...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ALSO 1.07 INCHES AND 1.32
INCHES RESPECTIVELY. EARLY MORNING MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE
EAST...WITH POCKETS OF LOWER PW AIR NEAR/BELOW 1 INCH EXTENDING WELL
UPSTREAM TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE STATE.

THE SURFACE HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE STATE IS BEING IMPINGED UPON BY A
FRONT FROM THE NORTH...CAUSING IT TO WEAKEN AND WINDS OVER STATE TO
DROP OFF A NOTCH. SURFACE PRESSURES AT AIRPORTS ACROSS THE ISLANDS
ARE ABOUT 1MB LOWER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. THE HIGH SHOULD
RESTRENGTHEN BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AMPLIFY...CAUSING WINDS TO TURN LOCALLY BREEZY
ONCE AGAIN BY TUESDAY. A SECOND FRONT PUSHING INTO THE HIGH FROM THE
WEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL CAUSE IT WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. DURING THIS PERIOD...CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
POCKETS OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE FLOW WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS
AT TIME...WHICH WILL ALSO SPILL OVER TO LEEWARD AREAS AS WELL. SMALL
FEATURES LIKE THESE ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT ONE BAND MAY MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.

AS THE CURRENT HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS...A NEW HIGH WILL
BUILD IN NORTH OF THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS NEW HIGH WILL
BRING ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS DURING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP A MODERATE E TO NE TRADE
WIND FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FOCUSED
PRIMARILY ACROSS MOUNTAIN AND NORTH THRU EAST SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS. TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS MAY IMPACT PHTO THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. COULD ALSO SEE TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS AT PHNY FROM LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...MVFR CIGS MAY AFFECT PHTO
AND PHLI. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING.

AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND TO
THE SOUTH THRU WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDIER
AREAS NEAR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE ADVISORY MAY BE EXPANDED IN AREA
AROUND TUESDAY...AND AGAIN AROUND FRIDAY...WHEN TRADE WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAILING OVER AND UPWIND OF THE
STATE WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SHORT-PERIOD SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER SURF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD ON TUESDAY AND PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LIKELY BRINGING
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF TO SOUTH FACING SHORES. A TINY NORTH SWELL IS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A SLIGHTLY LARGER
NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY... AND
THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...JELSEMA






000
FXHW60 PHFO 031937
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
BREEZY TRADES EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL BE STABLE...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS. POCKETS OF MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADE WINDS WILL
PERIODICALLY BOOST SHOWER COVERAGE...ALLOWING A FEW SHOWERS TO
SPREAD TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE STATE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS
WELL TO THE SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR TO
THE NORTHEAST...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO OUR
NORTH. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS RANGING FROM 7KFT AT LIHUE TO
10KFT AT HILO...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ALSO 1.07 INCHES AND 1.32
INCHES RESPECTIVELY. EARLY MORNING MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE
EAST...WITH POCKETS OF LOWER PW AIR NEAR/BELOW 1 INCH EXTENDING WELL
UPSTREAM TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE STATE.

THE SURFACE HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE STATE IS BEING IMPINGED UPON BY A
FRONT FROM THE NORTH...CAUSING IT TO WEAKEN AND WINDS OVER STATE TO
DROP OFF A NOTCH. SURFACE PRESSURES AT AIRPORTS ACROSS THE ISLANDS
ARE ABOUT 1MB LOWER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. THE HIGH SHOULD
RESTRENGTHEN BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AMPLIFY...CAUSING WINDS TO TURN LOCALLY BREEZY
ONCE AGAIN BY TUESDAY. A SECOND FRONT PUSHING INTO THE HIGH FROM THE
WEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL CAUSE IT WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. DURING THIS PERIOD...CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
POCKETS OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE FLOW WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS
AT TIME...WHICH WILL ALSO SPILL OVER TO LEEWARD AREAS AS WELL. SMALL
FEATURES LIKE THESE ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT ONE BAND MAY MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.

AS THE CURRENT HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS...A NEW HIGH WILL
BUILD IN NORTH OF THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS NEW HIGH WILL
BRING ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS DURING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP A MODERATE E TO NE TRADE
WIND FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FOCUSED
PRIMARILY ACROSS MOUNTAIN AND NORTH THRU EAST SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS. TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS MAY IMPACT PHTO THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. COULD ALSO SEE TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS AT PHNY FROM LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...MVFR CIGS MAY AFFECT PHTO
AND PHLI. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING.

AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND TO
THE SOUTH THRU WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDIER
AREAS NEAR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE ADVISORY MAY BE EXPANDED IN AREA
AROUND TUESDAY...AND AGAIN AROUND FRIDAY...WHEN TRADE WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAILING OVER AND UPWIND OF THE
STATE WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SHORT-PERIOD SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER SURF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD ON TUESDAY AND PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LIKELY BRINGING
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF TO SOUTH FACING SHORES. A TINY NORTH SWELL IS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A SLIGHTLY LARGER
NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY... AND
THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...JELSEMA






000
FXHW60 PHFO 031937
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
BREEZY TRADES EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL BE STABLE...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS. POCKETS OF MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADE WINDS WILL
PERIODICALLY BOOST SHOWER COVERAGE...ALLOWING A FEW SHOWERS TO
SPREAD TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE STATE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS
WELL TO THE SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR TO
THE NORTHEAST...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO OUR
NORTH. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS RANGING FROM 7KFT AT LIHUE TO
10KFT AT HILO...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ALSO 1.07 INCHES AND 1.32
INCHES RESPECTIVELY. EARLY MORNING MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE
EAST...WITH POCKETS OF LOWER PW AIR NEAR/BELOW 1 INCH EXTENDING WELL
UPSTREAM TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE STATE.

THE SURFACE HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE STATE IS BEING IMPINGED UPON BY A
FRONT FROM THE NORTH...CAUSING IT TO WEAKEN AND WINDS OVER STATE TO
DROP OFF A NOTCH. SURFACE PRESSURES AT AIRPORTS ACROSS THE ISLANDS
ARE ABOUT 1MB LOWER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. THE HIGH SHOULD
RESTRENGTHEN BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AMPLIFY...CAUSING WINDS TO TURN LOCALLY BREEZY
ONCE AGAIN BY TUESDAY. A SECOND FRONT PUSHING INTO THE HIGH FROM THE
WEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL CAUSE IT WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. DURING THIS PERIOD...CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
POCKETS OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE FLOW WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS
AT TIME...WHICH WILL ALSO SPILL OVER TO LEEWARD AREAS AS WELL. SMALL
FEATURES LIKE THESE ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT ONE BAND MAY MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.

AS THE CURRENT HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS...A NEW HIGH WILL
BUILD IN NORTH OF THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS NEW HIGH WILL
BRING ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS DURING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP A MODERATE E TO NE TRADE
WIND FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FOCUSED
PRIMARILY ACROSS MOUNTAIN AND NORTH THRU EAST SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS. TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS MAY IMPACT PHTO THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. COULD ALSO SEE TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS AT PHNY FROM LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...MVFR CIGS MAY AFFECT PHTO
AND PHLI. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING.

AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND TO
THE SOUTH THRU WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDIER
AREAS NEAR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE ADVISORY MAY BE EXPANDED IN AREA
AROUND TUESDAY...AND AGAIN AROUND FRIDAY...WHEN TRADE WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAILING OVER AND UPWIND OF THE
STATE WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SHORT-PERIOD SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER SURF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD ON TUESDAY AND PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LIKELY BRINGING
ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF TO SOUTH FACING SHORES. A TINY NORTH SWELL IS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A SLIGHTLY LARGER
NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY... AND
THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...JELSEMA







000
FXHW60 PHFO 031330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
BREEZY TRADES EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL BE STABLE...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD SLOPES
AND COASTS. POCKETS OF MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADE WINDS WILL
PERIODICALLY BOOST SHOWER COVERAGE... ALLOWING A FEW SHOWERS TO
SPREAD TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN
PREVAILING FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK...PROVIDING BRIEF SHOWERS THAT
WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS TODAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY INCREASE A NOTCH
ON TUESDAY. A SURFACE HIGH ABOUT 1150 MILES NE OF THE ISLANDS IS
CURRENTLY DRIVING THE TRADE WINDS...BUT IS BEING WEAKENED BY FRONTS
TO ITS N AND W. THE HIGH WILL REBUILD BY TUESDAY...PUSHING EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS INTO THE LOCALLY BREEZY RANGE BEFORE DROPPING A NOTCH ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. A NEW HIGH BUILDING NW
OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO STRONGER TRADES
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

BRIEF SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS...WITH SHOWERS
MOST ACTIVE DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. POCKETS OF MOISTURE
PASSING THROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASES IN SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT
THESE ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WITH MUCH SKILL BEYOND THE FIRST
PERIOD. ONE SUCH AREA OF MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADES HAS MADE
FOR A WET NIGHT ALONG THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND...WITH
RAIN GAGES INDICATING 12 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN ONE HALF AND
ONE INCH. POPS HAVE BEEN BOOSTED OVER WINDWARD MAUI AND BIG ISLAND
THROUGH THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AREA. GFS DEPICTS ANOTHER
SHOWER AREA PASSING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHILE OTHER
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT. AS GFS HAS A DECENT TRACK RECORD DETECTING
THESE SHOWERY PATCHES...WINDWARD POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR LATE
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. EITHER WAY...MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEK...KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER STABLE
WITH THE INVERSION MAINLY VARYING BETWEEN 6000 TO 9000 FT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE STATE TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL AFFECT WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE
BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI THIS MORNING...WHERE AIRMET SIERRA IS IN
EFFECT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THESE AREAS BY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WINDWARD
SECTIONS OF THE OTHER ISLANDS...MAINLY WITHIN PASSING SHOWERS.

AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURB OVER AND S
THRU W OF THE MOUNTAINS ON ALL ISLANDS...DUE TO THE LOCALLY BREEZY
TRADES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE SCA
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN AREA AROUND TUESDAY...AND AGAIN AROUND
FRIDAY...WHEN TRADE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAILING OVER AND UPWIND OF THE
ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SHORT-PERIOD SURF
ALONG E FACING SHORES. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT SURF WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS HOWEVER. ELSEWHERE...A LONG PERIOD SSW SWELL
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD ON TUESDAY AND PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. PEAK SURF HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL WILL LIKELY
NECESSITATE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR S FACING SHORES. A TINY N SWELL
IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A SLIGHTLY LARGER NNW
SWELL EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY... AND
THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...JACOBSON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 031330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
BREEZY TRADES EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL BE STABLE...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD SLOPES
AND COASTS. POCKETS OF MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADE WINDS WILL
PERIODICALLY BOOST SHOWER COVERAGE... ALLOWING A FEW SHOWERS TO
SPREAD TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN
PREVAILING FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK...PROVIDING BRIEF SHOWERS THAT
WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS TODAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY INCREASE A NOTCH
ON TUESDAY. A SURFACE HIGH ABOUT 1150 MILES NE OF THE ISLANDS IS
CURRENTLY DRIVING THE TRADE WINDS...BUT IS BEING WEAKENED BY FRONTS
TO ITS N AND W. THE HIGH WILL REBUILD BY TUESDAY...PUSHING EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS INTO THE LOCALLY BREEZY RANGE BEFORE DROPPING A NOTCH ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. A NEW HIGH BUILDING NW
OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO STRONGER TRADES
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

BRIEF SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS...WITH SHOWERS
MOST ACTIVE DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. POCKETS OF MOISTURE
PASSING THROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASES IN SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT
THESE ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WITH MUCH SKILL BEYOND THE FIRST
PERIOD. ONE SUCH AREA OF MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADES HAS MADE
FOR A WET NIGHT ALONG THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND...WITH
RAIN GAGES INDICATING 12 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN ONE HALF AND
ONE INCH. POPS HAVE BEEN BOOSTED OVER WINDWARD MAUI AND BIG ISLAND
THROUGH THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AREA. GFS DEPICTS ANOTHER
SHOWER AREA PASSING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHILE OTHER
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT. AS GFS HAS A DECENT TRACK RECORD DETECTING
THESE SHOWERY PATCHES...WINDWARD POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR LATE
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. EITHER WAY...MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEK...KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER STABLE
WITH THE INVERSION MAINLY VARYING BETWEEN 6000 TO 9000 FT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE STATE TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL AFFECT WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE
BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI THIS MORNING...WHERE AIRMET SIERRA IS IN
EFFECT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THESE AREAS BY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WINDWARD
SECTIONS OF THE OTHER ISLANDS...MAINLY WITHIN PASSING SHOWERS.

AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURB OVER AND S
THRU W OF THE MOUNTAINS ON ALL ISLANDS...DUE TO THE LOCALLY BREEZY
TRADES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE SCA
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN AREA AROUND TUESDAY...AND AGAIN AROUND
FRIDAY...WHEN TRADE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAILING OVER AND UPWIND OF THE
ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SHORT-PERIOD SURF
ALONG E FACING SHORES. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT SURF WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS HOWEVER. ELSEWHERE...A LONG PERIOD SSW SWELL
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD ON TUESDAY AND PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. PEAK SURF HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL WILL LIKELY
NECESSITATE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR S FACING SHORES. A TINY N SWELL
IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A SLIGHTLY LARGER NNW
SWELL EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY... AND
THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...JACOBSON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 031330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
BREEZY TRADES EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL BE STABLE...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD SLOPES
AND COASTS. POCKETS OF MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADE WINDS WILL
PERIODICALLY BOOST SHOWER COVERAGE... ALLOWING A FEW SHOWERS TO
SPREAD TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN
PREVAILING FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK...PROVIDING BRIEF SHOWERS THAT
WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS TODAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY INCREASE A NOTCH
ON TUESDAY. A SURFACE HIGH ABOUT 1150 MILES NE OF THE ISLANDS IS
CURRENTLY DRIVING THE TRADE WINDS...BUT IS BEING WEAKENED BY FRONTS
TO ITS N AND W. THE HIGH WILL REBUILD BY TUESDAY...PUSHING EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS INTO THE LOCALLY BREEZY RANGE BEFORE DROPPING A NOTCH ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. A NEW HIGH BUILDING NW
OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO STRONGER TRADES
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

BRIEF SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS...WITH SHOWERS
MOST ACTIVE DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. POCKETS OF MOISTURE
PASSING THROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASES IN SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT
THESE ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WITH MUCH SKILL BEYOND THE FIRST
PERIOD. ONE SUCH AREA OF MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADES HAS MADE
FOR A WET NIGHT ALONG THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND...WITH
RAIN GAGES INDICATING 12 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN ONE HALF AND
ONE INCH. POPS HAVE BEEN BOOSTED OVER WINDWARD MAUI AND BIG ISLAND
THROUGH THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AREA. GFS DEPICTS ANOTHER
SHOWER AREA PASSING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHILE OTHER
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT. AS GFS HAS A DECENT TRACK RECORD DETECTING
THESE SHOWERY PATCHES...WINDWARD POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR LATE
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. EITHER WAY...MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEK...KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER STABLE
WITH THE INVERSION MAINLY VARYING BETWEEN 6000 TO 9000 FT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE STATE TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL AFFECT WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE
BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI THIS MORNING...WHERE AIRMET SIERRA IS IN
EFFECT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THESE AREAS BY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WINDWARD
SECTIONS OF THE OTHER ISLANDS...MAINLY WITHIN PASSING SHOWERS.

AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURB OVER AND S
THRU W OF THE MOUNTAINS ON ALL ISLANDS...DUE TO THE LOCALLY BREEZY
TRADES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE SCA
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN AREA AROUND TUESDAY...AND AGAIN AROUND
FRIDAY...WHEN TRADE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAILING OVER AND UPWIND OF THE
ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SHORT-PERIOD SURF
ALONG E FACING SHORES. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT SURF WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS HOWEVER. ELSEWHERE...A LONG PERIOD SSW SWELL
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD ON TUESDAY AND PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. PEAK SURF HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL WILL LIKELY
NECESSITATE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR S FACING SHORES. A TINY N SWELL
IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A SLIGHTLY LARGER NNW
SWELL EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY... AND
THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...JACOBSON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 030622
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS
OF BREEZY TRADES EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL BE STABLE...AND A TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL FOCUS SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES. POCKETS OF MOISTURE RIDING IN ON
THE TRADE WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY BOOST RAINFALL...ALLOWING A FEW
SHOWERS TO SPREAD TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE ONGOING FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY...WITH A RATHER TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...PROVIDING BRIEF SHOWERS THAT WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY INCREASE A NOTCH
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. A 1030 MB HIGH NEARLY 1300 MILES NE OF THE
ISLANDS IS CURRENTLY DRIVING THE TRADE WINDS. ON SUNDAY THE HIGH
WILL BE WEAKENED BY A FRONTS TO ITS N AND W...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN THE TRADE WINDS EXPECTED. THE HIGH WILL REBUILD EARLY IN THE WORK
WEEK...PUSHING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS INTO THE LOCALLY BREEZY RANGE BY
TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING A NOTCH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE
HIGH WEAKENS. A NEW HIGH BUILDING NW OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK
IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO STRONGER TRADES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

A RATHER TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO FAVOR
WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS. FORECAST MODELS DO NOT DETECT ANY
ORGANIZED AREAS OF MOISTURE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. AS A RESULT...MODEST SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES...WITH
MOST LEEWARD AREAS REMAINING SOMEWHAT DRY. POCKETS OF MOISTURE
PASSING THROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASES IN SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT
THESE ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WITH MUCH SKILL BEYOND THE FIRST
PERIOD. ONE SUCH AREA OF MOISTURE RIDING ALONG ON THE TRADES WILL
PRODUCE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND
EAST MAUI THROUGH TONIGHT. GFS DEPICTS ANOTHER SHOWER AREA PASSING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHILE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT
DEPICTING THIS. EITHER WAY...MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE WEEK...KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER STABLE WITH THE
INVERSION MAINLY VARYING BETWEEN 6000 TO 9000 FT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE BIG
ISLAND OVERNIGHT...WHERE AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAY
BE NEEDED LATER ON. ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AS TRADE WIND
SHOWERS PASS THROUGH.

AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURB OVER AND S
THRU W OF THE MOUNTAINS ON ALL ISLANDS...DUE TO THE LOCALLY BREEZY
TRADES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE SCA MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO ADDITIONAL WATERS AROUND TUESDAY...AND AGAIN
AROUND FRIDAY AS TRADE WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE.

WITH FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAILING OVER AND UPWIND OF THE ISLANDS
THROUGH THE WEEK...SHORT-PERIOD EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL PERSIST.
WINDWARD CDIP BUOYS HAVE BEEN REPORTING SEAS IN THE 7-8 FT AT 8 TO 9
SECONDS RANGE TODAY...AND ASIDE FROM A BRIEF DROP OF A FOOT OR SO ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...ROUGH
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN AROUND THE HEAD HIGH RANGE.

A LONG PERIOD SSW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD ON TUESDAY
AND PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT PEAK
SURF HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL WILL NECESSITATE A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR S FACING SHORES OF THE ISLANDS. A TINY N SWELL IS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A SLIGHTLY LARGER NNW SWELL
EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY... AND
THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...JACOBSON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 030622
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS
OF BREEZY TRADES EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL BE STABLE...AND A TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL FOCUS SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES. POCKETS OF MOISTURE RIDING IN ON
THE TRADE WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY BOOST RAINFALL...ALLOWING A FEW
SHOWERS TO SPREAD TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE ONGOING FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY...WITH A RATHER TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...PROVIDING BRIEF SHOWERS THAT WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY INCREASE A NOTCH
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. A 1030 MB HIGH NEARLY 1300 MILES NE OF THE
ISLANDS IS CURRENTLY DRIVING THE TRADE WINDS. ON SUNDAY THE HIGH
WILL BE WEAKENED BY A FRONTS TO ITS N AND W...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN THE TRADE WINDS EXPECTED. THE HIGH WILL REBUILD EARLY IN THE WORK
WEEK...PUSHING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS INTO THE LOCALLY BREEZY RANGE BY
TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING A NOTCH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE
HIGH WEAKENS. A NEW HIGH BUILDING NW OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK
IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO STRONGER TRADES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

A RATHER TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO FAVOR
WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS. FORECAST MODELS DO NOT DETECT ANY
ORGANIZED AREAS OF MOISTURE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. AS A RESULT...MODEST SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES...WITH
MOST LEEWARD AREAS REMAINING SOMEWHAT DRY. POCKETS OF MOISTURE
PASSING THROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASES IN SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT
THESE ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WITH MUCH SKILL BEYOND THE FIRST
PERIOD. ONE SUCH AREA OF MOISTURE RIDING ALONG ON THE TRADES WILL
PRODUCE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND
EAST MAUI THROUGH TONIGHT. GFS DEPICTS ANOTHER SHOWER AREA PASSING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHILE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT
DEPICTING THIS. EITHER WAY...MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE WEEK...KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER STABLE WITH THE
INVERSION MAINLY VARYING BETWEEN 6000 TO 9000 FT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE BIG
ISLAND OVERNIGHT...WHERE AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAY
BE NEEDED LATER ON. ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AS TRADE WIND
SHOWERS PASS THROUGH.

AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURB OVER AND S
THRU W OF THE MOUNTAINS ON ALL ISLANDS...DUE TO THE LOCALLY BREEZY
TRADES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE SCA MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO ADDITIONAL WATERS AROUND TUESDAY...AND AGAIN
AROUND FRIDAY AS TRADE WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE.

WITH FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAILING OVER AND UPWIND OF THE ISLANDS
THROUGH THE WEEK...SHORT-PERIOD EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL PERSIST.
WINDWARD CDIP BUOYS HAVE BEEN REPORTING SEAS IN THE 7-8 FT AT 8 TO 9
SECONDS RANGE TODAY...AND ASIDE FROM A BRIEF DROP OF A FOOT OR SO ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...ROUGH
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN AROUND THE HEAD HIGH RANGE.

A LONG PERIOD SSW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD ON TUESDAY
AND PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT PEAK
SURF HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL WILL NECESSITATE A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR S FACING SHORES OF THE ISLANDS. A TINY N SWELL IS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A SLIGHTLY LARGER NNW SWELL
EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY... AND
THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...JACOBSON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 030622
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS
OF BREEZY TRADES EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL BE STABLE...AND A TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL FOCUS SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES. POCKETS OF MOISTURE RIDING IN ON
THE TRADE WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY BOOST RAINFALL...ALLOWING A FEW
SHOWERS TO SPREAD TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE ONGOING FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY...WITH A RATHER TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...PROVIDING BRIEF SHOWERS THAT WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY INCREASE A NOTCH
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. A 1030 MB HIGH NEARLY 1300 MILES NE OF THE
ISLANDS IS CURRENTLY DRIVING THE TRADE WINDS. ON SUNDAY THE HIGH
WILL BE WEAKENED BY A FRONTS TO ITS N AND W...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN THE TRADE WINDS EXPECTED. THE HIGH WILL REBUILD EARLY IN THE WORK
WEEK...PUSHING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS INTO THE LOCALLY BREEZY RANGE BY
TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING A NOTCH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE
HIGH WEAKENS. A NEW HIGH BUILDING NW OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK
IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO STRONGER TRADES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

A RATHER TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO FAVOR
WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS. FORECAST MODELS DO NOT DETECT ANY
ORGANIZED AREAS OF MOISTURE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. AS A RESULT...MODEST SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES...WITH
MOST LEEWARD AREAS REMAINING SOMEWHAT DRY. POCKETS OF MOISTURE
PASSING THROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASES IN SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT
THESE ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WITH MUCH SKILL BEYOND THE FIRST
PERIOD. ONE SUCH AREA OF MOISTURE RIDING ALONG ON THE TRADES WILL
PRODUCE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND
EAST MAUI THROUGH TONIGHT. GFS DEPICTS ANOTHER SHOWER AREA PASSING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHILE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT
DEPICTING THIS. EITHER WAY...MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE WEEK...KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER STABLE WITH THE
INVERSION MAINLY VARYING BETWEEN 6000 TO 9000 FT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE BIG
ISLAND OVERNIGHT...WHERE AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAY
BE NEEDED LATER ON. ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AS TRADE WIND
SHOWERS PASS THROUGH.

AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURB OVER AND S
THRU W OF THE MOUNTAINS ON ALL ISLANDS...DUE TO THE LOCALLY BREEZY
TRADES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE SCA MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO ADDITIONAL WATERS AROUND TUESDAY...AND AGAIN
AROUND FRIDAY AS TRADE WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE.

WITH FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAILING OVER AND UPWIND OF THE ISLANDS
THROUGH THE WEEK...SHORT-PERIOD EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL PERSIST.
WINDWARD CDIP BUOYS HAVE BEEN REPORTING SEAS IN THE 7-8 FT AT 8 TO 9
SECONDS RANGE TODAY...AND ASIDE FROM A BRIEF DROP OF A FOOT OR SO ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...ROUGH
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN AROUND THE HEAD HIGH RANGE.

A LONG PERIOD SSW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD ON TUESDAY
AND PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT PEAK
SURF HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL WILL NECESSITATE A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR S FACING SHORES OF THE ISLANDS. A TINY N SWELL IS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A SLIGHTLY LARGER NNW SWELL
EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY... AND
THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...JACOBSON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 030622
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS
OF BREEZY TRADES EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL BE STABLE...AND A TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL FOCUS SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES. POCKETS OF MOISTURE RIDING IN ON
THE TRADE WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY BOOST RAINFALL...ALLOWING A FEW
SHOWERS TO SPREAD TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE ONGOING FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY...WITH A RATHER TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...PROVIDING BRIEF SHOWERS THAT WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY INCREASE A NOTCH
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. A 1030 MB HIGH NEARLY 1300 MILES NE OF THE
ISLANDS IS CURRENTLY DRIVING THE TRADE WINDS. ON SUNDAY THE HIGH
WILL BE WEAKENED BY A FRONTS TO ITS N AND W...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN THE TRADE WINDS EXPECTED. THE HIGH WILL REBUILD EARLY IN THE WORK
WEEK...PUSHING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS INTO THE LOCALLY BREEZY RANGE BY
TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING A NOTCH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE
HIGH WEAKENS. A NEW HIGH BUILDING NW OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK
IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO STRONGER TRADES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

A RATHER TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO FAVOR
WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS. FORECAST MODELS DO NOT DETECT ANY
ORGANIZED AREAS OF MOISTURE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. AS A RESULT...MODEST SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES...WITH
MOST LEEWARD AREAS REMAINING SOMEWHAT DRY. POCKETS OF MOISTURE
PASSING THROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASES IN SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT
THESE ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WITH MUCH SKILL BEYOND THE FIRST
PERIOD. ONE SUCH AREA OF MOISTURE RIDING ALONG ON THE TRADES WILL
PRODUCE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND
EAST MAUI THROUGH TONIGHT. GFS DEPICTS ANOTHER SHOWER AREA PASSING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHILE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT
DEPICTING THIS. EITHER WAY...MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE WEEK...KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER STABLE WITH THE
INVERSION MAINLY VARYING BETWEEN 6000 TO 9000 FT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE BIG
ISLAND OVERNIGHT...WHERE AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAY
BE NEEDED LATER ON. ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AS TRADE WIND
SHOWERS PASS THROUGH.

AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURB OVER AND S
THRU W OF THE MOUNTAINS ON ALL ISLANDS...DUE TO THE LOCALLY BREEZY
TRADES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE SCA MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO ADDITIONAL WATERS AROUND TUESDAY...AND AGAIN
AROUND FRIDAY AS TRADE WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE.

WITH FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAILING OVER AND UPWIND OF THE ISLANDS
THROUGH THE WEEK...SHORT-PERIOD EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL PERSIST.
WINDWARD CDIP BUOYS HAVE BEEN REPORTING SEAS IN THE 7-8 FT AT 8 TO 9
SECONDS RANGE TODAY...AND ASIDE FROM A BRIEF DROP OF A FOOT OR SO ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...ROUGH
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN AROUND THE HEAD HIGH RANGE.

A LONG PERIOD SSW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD ON TUESDAY
AND PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT PEAK
SURF HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL WILL NECESSITATE A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR S FACING SHORES OF THE ISLANDS. A TINY N SWELL IS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A SLIGHTLY LARGER NNW SWELL
EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY... AND
THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...JACOBSON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 030135 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
PERIODS OF BREEZY TRADES EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE...AND A TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL
FOCUS SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES. POCKETS OF MOISTURE RIDING IN
ON THE TRADE WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY BOOST RAINFALL...ALLOWING A FEW
SHOWERS TO SPREAD TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
AT TIMES BREEZY TRADE WINDS WITH SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD SLOPES
THROUGH THE WEEK.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY INCREASE A NOTCH
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. A 1030 MB HIGH NEARLY 1300 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS IS DRIVING THE TRADE WINDS. THE HIGH WILL BE WEAKENED
BY A SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ACROSS THE STATE...WE WILL ONLY SEE A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE TRADES ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
REBUILD EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...PUSHING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS INTO
THE LOCALLY BREEZY RANGE BY TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING A NOTCH ON
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A STRONGER HIGH SETTING UP NORTH OF
THE STATE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY TRADES.

A RATHER TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO FAVOR
WINDWARD SLOPES. FORECAST MODELS DO NOT DETECT ANY ORGANIZED
AREAS OF MOISTURE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A
RESULT...MODEST SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES...WITH MOST
LEEWARD AREAS REMAINING SOMEWHAT DRY. POCKETS OF MOISTURE PASSING
THROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASES IN SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT WE WILL
ONLY BE ABLE TO PINPOINT THOSE EPISODES WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS PRIOR
TO THE MOISTURE REACHING THE ISLANDS. ONE SUCH DIFFUSE AREA SHOULD
PRODUCE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND
EAST MAUI TONIGHT. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
WEEK...KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER STABLE WITH THE INVERSION
MAINLY VARYING BETWEEN 6000 TO 9000 FT.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...THOUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENING...WILL
SUPPORT TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUS
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. RANDOM CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
RIDING IN WITH THE TRADES MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED MVFR CIGS AND VIS
ALONG THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. SOUNDING DATA INDICATES
CLOUD HEIGHTS BETWEEN 8000 AND 9000 FEET AROUND THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

AIRMET TANGO CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURB OVER AND SW AND
W OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO ADDITIONAL WATERS FOR TUESDAY AS
EASTERLY TRADES BRIEFLY INCREASE. AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND COULD NEED TO BE
EXPANDED AGAIN TO ADDITIONAL WATERS BY FRIDAY.

WITH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAINING AT FRESH TO AT TIMES STRONG
LEVELS OVER AND UPWIND OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEK...
SHORT-PERIOD EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL PERSIST. WINDWARD CDIP BUOYS
HAVE BEEN REPORTING SEAS IN THE 7-8 FT AT 8 TO 9 SECONDS RANGE
TODAY...AND ASIDE FROM A BRIEF DROP OF A FOOT OR SO ON SUNDAY...
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...ROUGH SURF
ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN AROUND THE HEAD HIGH RANGE.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON TUESDAY
AND PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SWELL CONTINUES TO BUILD AT
AMERICAN SAMOA...WHERE THE CDIP BUOY IS REGISTERING SEAS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE. THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL HAS BEEN
FORECASTING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL OF AROUND 7 FT AT SAMOA. WE
TYPICALLY EXPECT TO SEE ABOUT HALF OF THAT SWELL ENERGY REACHING
HAWAII...AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL OF 4
FEET LOOKS TO BE REASONABLE FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
SOUTH SHORE SURF AROUND THE ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY... AND
THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND.


&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...FUJII








000
FXHW60 PHFO 030135 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
PERIODS OF BREEZY TRADES EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE...AND A TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL
FOCUS SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES. POCKETS OF MOISTURE RIDING IN
ON THE TRADE WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY BOOST RAINFALL...ALLOWING A FEW
SHOWERS TO SPREAD TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
AT TIMES BREEZY TRADE WINDS WITH SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD SLOPES
THROUGH THE WEEK.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY INCREASE A NOTCH
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. A 1030 MB HIGH NEARLY 1300 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS IS DRIVING THE TRADE WINDS. THE HIGH WILL BE WEAKENED
BY A SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ACROSS THE STATE...WE WILL ONLY SEE A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE TRADES ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
REBUILD EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...PUSHING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS INTO
THE LOCALLY BREEZY RANGE BY TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING A NOTCH ON
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A STRONGER HIGH SETTING UP NORTH OF
THE STATE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY TRADES.

A RATHER TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO FAVOR
WINDWARD SLOPES. FORECAST MODELS DO NOT DETECT ANY ORGANIZED
AREAS OF MOISTURE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A
RESULT...MODEST SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES...WITH MOST
LEEWARD AREAS REMAINING SOMEWHAT DRY. POCKETS OF MOISTURE PASSING
THROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASES IN SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT WE WILL
ONLY BE ABLE TO PINPOINT THOSE EPISODES WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS PRIOR
TO THE MOISTURE REACHING THE ISLANDS. ONE SUCH DIFFUSE AREA SHOULD
PRODUCE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND
EAST MAUI TONIGHT. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
WEEK...KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER STABLE WITH THE INVERSION
MAINLY VARYING BETWEEN 6000 TO 9000 FT.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...THOUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENING...WILL
SUPPORT TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUS
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. RANDOM CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
RIDING IN WITH THE TRADES MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED MVFR CIGS AND VIS
ALONG THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. SOUNDING DATA INDICATES
CLOUD HEIGHTS BETWEEN 8000 AND 9000 FEET AROUND THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

AIRMET TANGO CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURB OVER AND SW AND
W OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO ADDITIONAL WATERS FOR TUESDAY AS
EASTERLY TRADES BRIEFLY INCREASE. AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND COULD NEED TO BE
EXPANDED AGAIN TO ADDITIONAL WATERS BY FRIDAY.

WITH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAINING AT FRESH TO AT TIMES STRONG
LEVELS OVER AND UPWIND OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEK...
SHORT-PERIOD EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL PERSIST. WINDWARD CDIP BUOYS
HAVE BEEN REPORTING SEAS IN THE 7-8 FT AT 8 TO 9 SECONDS RANGE
TODAY...AND ASIDE FROM A BRIEF DROP OF A FOOT OR SO ON SUNDAY...
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...ROUGH SURF
ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN AROUND THE HEAD HIGH RANGE.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON TUESDAY
AND PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SWELL CONTINUES TO BUILD AT
AMERICAN SAMOA...WHERE THE CDIP BUOY IS REGISTERING SEAS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE. THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL HAS BEEN
FORECASTING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL OF AROUND 7 FT AT SAMOA. WE
TYPICALLY EXPECT TO SEE ABOUT HALF OF THAT SWELL ENERGY REACHING
HAWAII...AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL OF 4
FEET LOOKS TO BE REASONABLE FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
SOUTH SHORE SURF AROUND THE ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY... AND
THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND.


&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...FUJII








000
FXHW60 PHFO 030135 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
PERIODS OF BREEZY TRADES EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE...AND A TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL
FOCUS SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES. POCKETS OF MOISTURE RIDING IN
ON THE TRADE WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY BOOST RAINFALL...ALLOWING A FEW
SHOWERS TO SPREAD TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
AT TIMES BREEZY TRADE WINDS WITH SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD SLOPES
THROUGH THE WEEK.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY INCREASE A NOTCH
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. A 1030 MB HIGH NEARLY 1300 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS IS DRIVING THE TRADE WINDS. THE HIGH WILL BE WEAKENED
BY A SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ACROSS THE STATE...WE WILL ONLY SEE A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE TRADES ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
REBUILD EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...PUSHING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS INTO
THE LOCALLY BREEZY RANGE BY TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING A NOTCH ON
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A STRONGER HIGH SETTING UP NORTH OF
THE STATE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY TRADES.

A RATHER TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO FAVOR
WINDWARD SLOPES. FORECAST MODELS DO NOT DETECT ANY ORGANIZED
AREAS OF MOISTURE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A
RESULT...MODEST SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES...WITH MOST
LEEWARD AREAS REMAINING SOMEWHAT DRY. POCKETS OF MOISTURE PASSING
THROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASES IN SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT WE WILL
ONLY BE ABLE TO PINPOINT THOSE EPISODES WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS PRIOR
TO THE MOISTURE REACHING THE ISLANDS. ONE SUCH DIFFUSE AREA SHOULD
PRODUCE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND
EAST MAUI TONIGHT. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
WEEK...KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER STABLE WITH THE INVERSION
MAINLY VARYING BETWEEN 6000 TO 9000 FT.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...THOUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENING...WILL
SUPPORT TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUS
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. RANDOM CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
RIDING IN WITH THE TRADES MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED MVFR CIGS AND VIS
ALONG THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. SOUNDING DATA INDICATES
CLOUD HEIGHTS BETWEEN 8000 AND 9000 FEET AROUND THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

AIRMET TANGO CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURB OVER AND SW AND
W OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO ADDITIONAL WATERS FOR TUESDAY AS
EASTERLY TRADES BRIEFLY INCREASE. AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND COULD NEED TO BE
EXPANDED AGAIN TO ADDITIONAL WATERS BY FRIDAY.

WITH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAINING AT FRESH TO AT TIMES STRONG
LEVELS OVER AND UPWIND OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEK...
SHORT-PERIOD EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL PERSIST. WINDWARD CDIP BUOYS
HAVE BEEN REPORTING SEAS IN THE 7-8 FT AT 8 TO 9 SECONDS RANGE
TODAY...AND ASIDE FROM A BRIEF DROP OF A FOOT OR SO ON SUNDAY...
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...ROUGH SURF
ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN AROUND THE HEAD HIGH RANGE.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON TUESDAY
AND PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SWELL CONTINUES TO BUILD AT
AMERICAN SAMOA...WHERE THE CDIP BUOY IS REGISTERING SEAS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE. THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL HAS BEEN
FORECASTING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL OF AROUND 7 FT AT SAMOA. WE
TYPICALLY EXPECT TO SEE ABOUT HALF OF THAT SWELL ENERGY REACHING
HAWAII...AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL OF 4
FEET LOOKS TO BE REASONABLE FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
SOUTH SHORE SURF AROUND THE ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY... AND
THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND.


&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...FUJII







000
FXHW60 PHFO 030135 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
PERIODS OF BREEZY TRADES EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE...AND A TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL
FOCUS SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES. POCKETS OF MOISTURE RIDING IN
ON THE TRADE WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY BOOST RAINFALL...ALLOWING A FEW
SHOWERS TO SPREAD TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
AT TIMES BREEZY TRADE WINDS WITH SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD SLOPES
THROUGH THE WEEK.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY INCREASE A NOTCH
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. A 1030 MB HIGH NEARLY 1300 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS IS DRIVING THE TRADE WINDS. THE HIGH WILL BE WEAKENED
BY A SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ACROSS THE STATE...WE WILL ONLY SEE A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE TRADES ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
REBUILD EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...PUSHING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS INTO
THE LOCALLY BREEZY RANGE BY TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING A NOTCH ON
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A STRONGER HIGH SETTING UP NORTH OF
THE STATE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY TRADES.

A RATHER TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO FAVOR
WINDWARD SLOPES. FORECAST MODELS DO NOT DETECT ANY ORGANIZED
AREAS OF MOISTURE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A
RESULT...MODEST SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES...WITH MOST
LEEWARD AREAS REMAINING SOMEWHAT DRY. POCKETS OF MOISTURE PASSING
THROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASES IN SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT WE WILL
ONLY BE ABLE TO PINPOINT THOSE EPISODES WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS PRIOR
TO THE MOISTURE REACHING THE ISLANDS. ONE SUCH DIFFUSE AREA SHOULD
PRODUCE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND
EAST MAUI TONIGHT. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
WEEK...KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER STABLE WITH THE INVERSION
MAINLY VARYING BETWEEN 6000 TO 9000 FT.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...THOUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENING...WILL
SUPPORT TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUS
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. RANDOM CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
RIDING IN WITH THE TRADES MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED MVFR CIGS AND VIS
ALONG THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. SOUNDING DATA INDICATES
CLOUD HEIGHTS BETWEEN 8000 AND 9000 FEET AROUND THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

AIRMET TANGO CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURB OVER AND SW AND
W OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO ADDITIONAL WATERS FOR TUESDAY AS
EASTERLY TRADES BRIEFLY INCREASE. AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND COULD NEED TO BE
EXPANDED AGAIN TO ADDITIONAL WATERS BY FRIDAY.

WITH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAINING AT FRESH TO AT TIMES STRONG
LEVELS OVER AND UPWIND OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEK...
SHORT-PERIOD EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL PERSIST. WINDWARD CDIP BUOYS
HAVE BEEN REPORTING SEAS IN THE 7-8 FT AT 8 TO 9 SECONDS RANGE
TODAY...AND ASIDE FROM A BRIEF DROP OF A FOOT OR SO ON SUNDAY...
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...ROUGH SURF
ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN AROUND THE HEAD HIGH RANGE.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON TUESDAY
AND PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SWELL CONTINUES TO BUILD AT
AMERICAN SAMOA...WHERE THE CDIP BUOY IS REGISTERING SEAS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE. THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL HAS BEEN
FORECASTING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL OF AROUND 7 FT AT SAMOA. WE
TYPICALLY EXPECT TO SEE ABOUT HALF OF THAT SWELL ENERGY REACHING
HAWAII...AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL OF 4
FEET LOOKS TO BE REASONABLE FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
SOUTH SHORE SURF AROUND THE ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY... AND
THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND.


&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...FUJII







000
FXHW60 PHFO 030127
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
PERIODS OF BREEZY TRADES EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE...AND A TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL
FOCUS SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES. POCKETS OF MOISTURE RIDING IN
ON THE TRADE WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY BOOST RAINFALL...ALLOWING A FEW
SHOWERS TO SPREAD TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
AT TIMES BREEZY TRADE WINDS WITH SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD SLOPES
THROUGH THE WEEK.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY INCREASE A NOTCH
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. A 1030 MB HIGH NEARLY 1300 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS IS DRIVING THE TRADE WINDS. THE HIGH WILL BE WEAKENED
BY A SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ACROSS THE STATE...WE WILL ONLY SEE A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE TRADES ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
REBUILD EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...PUSHING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS INTO
THE LOCALLY BREEZY RANGE BY TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING A NOTCH ON
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A STRONGER HIGH SETTING UP NORTH OF
THE STATE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY TRADES.

A RATHER TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO FAVOR
WINDWARD SLOPES. FORECAST MODELS DO NOT DETECT ANY ORGANIZED
AREAS OF MOISTURE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A
RESULT...MODEST SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES...WITH MOST
LEEWARD AREAS REMAINING SOMEWHAT DRY. POCKETS OF MOISTURE PASSING
THROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASES IN SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT WE WILL BE
ONLY BE ABLE PINPOINT THOSE EPISODES WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO
THE MOISTURE REACHING THE ISLANDS. ONE SUCH DIFFUSE AREA SHOULD
PRODUCE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND
EAST MAUI TONIGHT. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
WEEK...KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER STABLE WITH THE INVERSION
MAINLY VARYING BETWEEN 6000 TO 9000 FT.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...THOUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENING...WILL
SUPPORT TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUS
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. RANDOM CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
RIDING IN WITH THE TRADES MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED MVFR CIGS AND VIS
ALONG THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. SOUNDING DATA INDICATES
CLOUD HEIGHTS BETWEEN 8000 AND 9000 FEET AROUND THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

AIRMET TANGO CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURB OVER AND SW AND
W OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO ADDITIONAL WATERS FOR TUESDAY AS
EASTERLY TRADES BRIEFLY INCREASE. AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND COULD NEED TO BE
EXPANDED AGAIN TO ADDITIONAL WATERS BY FRIDAY.

WITH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAINING AT FRESH TO AT TIMES STRONG
LEVELS OVER AND UPWIND OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEK...
SHORT-PERIOD EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL PERSIST. WINDWARD CDIP BUOYS
HAVE BEEN REPORTING SEAS IN THE 7-8 FT AT 8 TO 9 SECONDS RANGE
TODAY...AND ASIDE FROM A BRIEF DROP OF A FOOT OR SO ON SUNDAY...
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...ROUGH SURF
ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN AROUND THE HEAD HIGH RANGE.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON TUESDAY
AND PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SWELL CONTINUES TO BUILD AT
AMERICAN SAMOA...WHERE THE CDIP BUOY IS REGISTERING SEAS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE. THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL HAS BEEN
FORECASTING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL OF AROUND 7 FT AT SAMOA. WE
TYPICALLY EXPECT TO SEE ABOUT HALF OF THAT SWELL ENERGY REACHING
HAWAII...AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL OF 4
FEET LOOKS TO BE REASONABLE FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
SOUTH SHORE SURF AROUND THE ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY... AND
THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND.


&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...FUJII







000
FXHW60 PHFO 030127
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
PERIODS OF BREEZY TRADES EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE...AND A TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL
FOCUS SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES. POCKETS OF MOISTURE RIDING IN
ON THE TRADE WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY BOOST RAINFALL...ALLOWING A FEW
SHOWERS TO SPREAD TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
AT TIMES BREEZY TRADE WINDS WITH SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD SLOPES
THROUGH THE WEEK.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY INCREASE A NOTCH
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. A 1030 MB HIGH NEARLY 1300 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS IS DRIVING THE TRADE WINDS. THE HIGH WILL BE WEAKENED
BY A SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ACROSS THE STATE...WE WILL ONLY SEE A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE TRADES ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
REBUILD EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...PUSHING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS INTO
THE LOCALLY BREEZY RANGE BY TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING A NOTCH ON
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A STRONGER HIGH SETTING UP NORTH OF
THE STATE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY TRADES.

A RATHER TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO FAVOR
WINDWARD SLOPES. FORECAST MODELS DO NOT DETECT ANY ORGANIZED
AREAS OF MOISTURE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A
RESULT...MODEST SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES...WITH MOST
LEEWARD AREAS REMAINING SOMEWHAT DRY. POCKETS OF MOISTURE PASSING
THROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASES IN SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT WE WILL BE
ONLY BE ABLE PINPOINT THOSE EPISODES WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO
THE MOISTURE REACHING THE ISLANDS. ONE SUCH DIFFUSE AREA SHOULD
PRODUCE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND
EAST MAUI TONIGHT. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
WEEK...KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER STABLE WITH THE INVERSION
MAINLY VARYING BETWEEN 6000 TO 9000 FT.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...THOUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENING...WILL
SUPPORT TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUS
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. RANDOM CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
RIDING IN WITH THE TRADES MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED MVFR CIGS AND VIS
ALONG THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. SOUNDING DATA INDICATES
CLOUD HEIGHTS BETWEEN 8000 AND 9000 FEET AROUND THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

AIRMET TANGO CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURB OVER AND SW AND
W OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO ADDITIONAL WATERS FOR TUESDAY AS
EASTERLY TRADES BRIEFLY INCREASE. AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND COULD NEED TO BE
EXPANDED AGAIN TO ADDITIONAL WATERS BY FRIDAY.

WITH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAINING AT FRESH TO AT TIMES STRONG
LEVELS OVER AND UPWIND OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEK...
SHORT-PERIOD EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL PERSIST. WINDWARD CDIP BUOYS
HAVE BEEN REPORTING SEAS IN THE 7-8 FT AT 8 TO 9 SECONDS RANGE
TODAY...AND ASIDE FROM A BRIEF DROP OF A FOOT OR SO ON SUNDAY...
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...ROUGH SURF
ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN AROUND THE HEAD HIGH RANGE.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON TUESDAY
AND PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SWELL CONTINUES TO BUILD AT
AMERICAN SAMOA...WHERE THE CDIP BUOY IS REGISTERING SEAS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE. THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL HAS BEEN
FORECASTING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL OF AROUND 7 FT AT SAMOA. WE
TYPICALLY EXPECT TO SEE ABOUT HALF OF THAT SWELL ENERGY REACHING
HAWAII...AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL OF 4
FEET LOOKS TO BE REASONABLE FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
SOUTH SHORE SURF AROUND THE ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY... AND
THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND.


&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...FUJII






000
FXHW60 PHFO 030127
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
PERIODS OF BREEZY TRADES EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE...AND A TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL
FOCUS SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES. POCKETS OF MOISTURE RIDING IN
ON THE TRADE WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY BOOST RAINFALL...ALLOWING A FEW
SHOWERS TO SPREAD TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
AT TIMES BREEZY TRADE WINDS WITH SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD SLOPES
THROUGH THE WEEK.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY INCREASE A NOTCH
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. A 1030 MB HIGH NEARLY 1300 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS IS DRIVING THE TRADE WINDS. THE HIGH WILL BE WEAKENED
BY A SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ACROSS THE STATE...WE WILL ONLY SEE A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE TRADES ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
REBUILD EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...PUSHING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS INTO
THE LOCALLY BREEZY RANGE BY TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING A NOTCH ON
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A STRONGER HIGH SETTING UP NORTH OF
THE STATE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY TRADES.

A RATHER TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO FAVOR
WINDWARD SLOPES. FORECAST MODELS DO NOT DETECT ANY ORGANIZED
AREAS OF MOISTURE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A
RESULT...MODEST SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES...WITH MOST
LEEWARD AREAS REMAINING SOMEWHAT DRY. POCKETS OF MOISTURE PASSING
THROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASES IN SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT WE WILL BE
ONLY BE ABLE PINPOINT THOSE EPISODES WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO
THE MOISTURE REACHING THE ISLANDS. ONE SUCH DIFFUSE AREA SHOULD
PRODUCE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND
EAST MAUI TONIGHT. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
WEEK...KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER STABLE WITH THE INVERSION
MAINLY VARYING BETWEEN 6000 TO 9000 FT.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...THOUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENING...WILL
SUPPORT TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUS
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. RANDOM CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
RIDING IN WITH THE TRADES MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED MVFR CIGS AND VIS
ALONG THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. SOUNDING DATA INDICATES
CLOUD HEIGHTS BETWEEN 8000 AND 9000 FEET AROUND THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

AIRMET TANGO CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURB OVER AND SW AND
W OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO ADDITIONAL WATERS FOR TUESDAY AS
EASTERLY TRADES BRIEFLY INCREASE. AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND COULD NEED TO BE
EXPANDED AGAIN TO ADDITIONAL WATERS BY FRIDAY.

WITH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAINING AT FRESH TO AT TIMES STRONG
LEVELS OVER AND UPWIND OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEK...
SHORT-PERIOD EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL PERSIST. WINDWARD CDIP BUOYS
HAVE BEEN REPORTING SEAS IN THE 7-8 FT AT 8 TO 9 SECONDS RANGE
TODAY...AND ASIDE FROM A BRIEF DROP OF A FOOT OR SO ON SUNDAY...
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...ROUGH SURF
ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN AROUND THE HEAD HIGH RANGE.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON TUESDAY
AND PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SWELL CONTINUES TO BUILD AT
AMERICAN SAMOA...WHERE THE CDIP BUOY IS REGISTERING SEAS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE. THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL HAS BEEN
FORECASTING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL OF AROUND 7 FT AT SAMOA. WE
TYPICALLY EXPECT TO SEE ABOUT HALF OF THAT SWELL ENERGY REACHING
HAWAII...AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL OF 4
FEET LOOKS TO BE REASONABLE FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
SOUTH SHORE SURF AROUND THE ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY... AND
THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND.


&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...FUJII






000
FXHW60 PHFO 030127
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
PERIODS OF BREEZY TRADES EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE...AND A TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL
FOCUS SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES. POCKETS OF MOISTURE RIDING IN
ON THE TRADE WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY BOOST RAINFALL...ALLOWING A FEW
SHOWERS TO SPREAD TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
AT TIMES BREEZY TRADE WINDS WITH SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD SLOPES
THROUGH THE WEEK.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY INCREASE A NOTCH
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. A 1030 MB HIGH NEARLY 1300 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS IS DRIVING THE TRADE WINDS. THE HIGH WILL BE WEAKENED
BY A SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ACROSS THE STATE...WE WILL ONLY SEE A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE TRADES ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
REBUILD EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...PUSHING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS INTO
THE LOCALLY BREEZY RANGE BY TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING A NOTCH ON
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A STRONGER HIGH SETTING UP NORTH OF
THE STATE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY TRADES.

A RATHER TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO FAVOR
WINDWARD SLOPES. FORECAST MODELS DO NOT DETECT ANY ORGANIZED
AREAS OF MOISTURE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A
RESULT...MODEST SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES...WITH MOST
LEEWARD AREAS REMAINING SOMEWHAT DRY. POCKETS OF MOISTURE PASSING
THROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASES IN SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT WE WILL BE
ONLY BE ABLE PINPOINT THOSE EPISODES WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO
THE MOISTURE REACHING THE ISLANDS. ONE SUCH DIFFUSE AREA SHOULD
PRODUCE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND
EAST MAUI TONIGHT. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
WEEK...KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER STABLE WITH THE INVERSION
MAINLY VARYING BETWEEN 6000 TO 9000 FT.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...THOUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENING...WILL
SUPPORT TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUS
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. RANDOM CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
RIDING IN WITH THE TRADES MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED MVFR CIGS AND VIS
ALONG THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. SOUNDING DATA INDICATES
CLOUD HEIGHTS BETWEEN 8000 AND 9000 FEET AROUND THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

AIRMET TANGO CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURB OVER AND SW AND
W OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO ADDITIONAL WATERS FOR TUESDAY AS
EASTERLY TRADES BRIEFLY INCREASE. AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND COULD NEED TO BE
EXPANDED AGAIN TO ADDITIONAL WATERS BY FRIDAY.

WITH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAINING AT FRESH TO AT TIMES STRONG
LEVELS OVER AND UPWIND OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEK...
SHORT-PERIOD EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL PERSIST. WINDWARD CDIP BUOYS
HAVE BEEN REPORTING SEAS IN THE 7-8 FT AT 8 TO 9 SECONDS RANGE
TODAY...AND ASIDE FROM A BRIEF DROP OF A FOOT OR SO ON SUNDAY...
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...ROUGH SURF
ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN AROUND THE HEAD HIGH RANGE.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON TUESDAY
AND PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SWELL CONTINUES TO BUILD AT
AMERICAN SAMOA...WHERE THE CDIP BUOY IS REGISTERING SEAS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE. THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL HAS BEEN
FORECASTING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL OF AROUND 7 FT AT SAMOA. WE
TYPICALLY EXPECT TO SEE ABOUT HALF OF THAT SWELL ENERGY REACHING
HAWAII...AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL OF 4
FEET LOOKS TO BE REASONABLE FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
SOUTH SHORE SURF AROUND THE ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY... AND
THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND.


&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...FUJII







000
FXHW60 PHFO 022005 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1005 AM HST SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
PERIODS OF BREEZY TRADES EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE...AND A TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL
FOCUS SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES. SMALL POCKETS OF MOISTURE
RIDING IN ON THE TRADE WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY BOOST RAINFALL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
AT TIMES BREEZY TRADE WINDS WITH SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD SLOPES.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY INCREASE A NOTCH
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. A 1029 MB HIGH NEARLY 1300 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS IS DRIVING THE TRADE WINDS. THE HIGH WILL BE WEAKENED
BY A SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ACROSS THE STATE...WE WILL ONLY SEE A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE TRADES. THE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD EARLY
IN THE WORK WEEK...PUSHING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS INTO THE LOCALLY
BREEZY RANGE BY TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING A NOTCH ON WEDNESDAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A STRONGER HIGH SETTING UP NORTH OF THE STATE
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
TRADES.

A RATHER TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO FAVOR
WINDWARD SLOPES. UNLIKE THE BAND OF MOISTURE THAT MOVED THROUGH
YESTERDAY MORNING...FORECAST MODELS DO NOT DETECT ANY ORGANIZED
AREAS OF MOISTURE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A
RESULT...MODEST SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES...WITH MOST
LEEWARD AREAS REMAINING SOMEWHAT DRY. POCKETS OF MOISTURE PASSING
THROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASES IN SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT WE WILL BE
ONLY BE ABLE PINPOINT THOSE EPISODES WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO
THE MOISTURE REACHING THE ISLANDS. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEK...KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER STABLE
WITH THE INVERSION MAINLY VARYING BETWEEN AROUND 7000 TO 9000 FT.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...THOUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENING...WILL
SUPPORT TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUS
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. RANDOM CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
RIDING IN WITH THE TRADES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED MVFR CIGS AND VIS
ALONG THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. SOUNDING DATA IMPLYING
CLOUD HEIGHTS IN THE 8000 TO 10000 FEET RANGE THIS MORNING.

AIRMET TANGO CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURB OVER AND S THRU
W OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE
SCA WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO MONDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
TO ADDITIONAL WATERS FOR TUESDAY AS EASTERLY TRADES BRIEFLY
INCREASE. AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY
WATERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND COULD NEED TO BE EXPANDED AGAIN TO
ADDITIONAL WATERS BY FRIDAY.

WITH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAINING AT FRESH TO AT TIMES STRONG
LEVELS OVER AND UPWIND OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEK...
SHORT-PERIOD EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL PERSIST. WINDWARD CDIP BUOYS
ARE SHOWING SEAS IN THE 7-8 FT AT 9 SECONDS RANGE THIS MORNING...AND
ASIDE FROM A BRIEF DROP OF A FOOT OR SO ON SUNDAY...EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...ROUGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES WILL REMAIN AROUND THE HEAD HIGH RANGE.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON TUESDAY
AND PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SWELL IS CURRENTLY BUILDING
AT AMERICAN SAMOA...WHERE THE CDIP BUOY IS REGISTERING SEAS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE. THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL HAS BEEN
FORECASTING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL OF AROUND 7 FT AT SAMOA. WE
TYPICALLY EXPECT TO SEE ABOUT HALF OF THAT SWELL ENERGY REACHING
HAWAII...AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL OF 4
FEET LOOKS TO BE REASONABLE FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
SOUTH SHORE AROUND THE ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY... AND
THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND.


&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...FUJII







000
FXHW60 PHFO 022005 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1005 AM HST SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
PERIODS OF BREEZY TRADES EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE...AND A TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL
FOCUS SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES. SMALL POCKETS OF MOISTURE
RIDING IN ON THE TRADE WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY BOOST RAINFALL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
AT TIMES BREEZY TRADE WINDS WITH SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD SLOPES.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY INCREASE A NOTCH
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. A 1029 MB HIGH NEARLY 1300 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS IS DRIVING THE TRADE WINDS. THE HIGH WILL BE WEAKENED
BY A SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ACROSS THE STATE...WE WILL ONLY SEE A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE TRADES. THE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD EARLY
IN THE WORK WEEK...PUSHING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS INTO THE LOCALLY
BREEZY RANGE BY TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING A NOTCH ON WEDNESDAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A STRONGER HIGH SETTING UP NORTH OF THE STATE
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
TRADES.

A RATHER TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO FAVOR
WINDWARD SLOPES. UNLIKE THE BAND OF MOISTURE THAT MOVED THROUGH
YESTERDAY MORNING...FORECAST MODELS DO NOT DETECT ANY ORGANIZED
AREAS OF MOISTURE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A
RESULT...MODEST SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES...WITH MOST
LEEWARD AREAS REMAINING SOMEWHAT DRY. POCKETS OF MOISTURE PASSING
THROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASES IN SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT WE WILL BE
ONLY BE ABLE PINPOINT THOSE EPISODES WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO
THE MOISTURE REACHING THE ISLANDS. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEK...KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER STABLE
WITH THE INVERSION MAINLY VARYING BETWEEN AROUND 7000 TO 9000 FT.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...THOUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENING...WILL
SUPPORT TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUS
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. RANDOM CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
RIDING IN WITH THE TRADES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED MVFR CIGS AND VIS
ALONG THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. SOUNDING DATA IMPLYING
CLOUD HEIGHTS IN THE 8000 TO 10000 FEET RANGE THIS MORNING.

AIRMET TANGO CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURB OVER AND S THRU
W OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE
SCA WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO MONDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
TO ADDITIONAL WATERS FOR TUESDAY AS EASTERLY TRADES BRIEFLY
INCREASE. AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY
WATERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND COULD NEED TO BE EXPANDED AGAIN TO
ADDITIONAL WATERS BY FRIDAY.

WITH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAINING AT FRESH TO AT TIMES STRONG
LEVELS OVER AND UPWIND OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEK...
SHORT-PERIOD EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL PERSIST. WINDWARD CDIP BUOYS
ARE SHOWING SEAS IN THE 7-8 FT AT 9 SECONDS RANGE THIS MORNING...AND
ASIDE FROM A BRIEF DROP OF A FOOT OR SO ON SUNDAY...EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...ROUGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES WILL REMAIN AROUND THE HEAD HIGH RANGE.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON TUESDAY
AND PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SWELL IS CURRENTLY BUILDING
AT AMERICAN SAMOA...WHERE THE CDIP BUOY IS REGISTERING SEAS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE. THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL HAS BEEN
FORECASTING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL OF AROUND 7 FT AT SAMOA. WE
TYPICALLY EXPECT TO SEE ABOUT HALF OF THAT SWELL ENERGY REACHING
HAWAII...AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL OF 4
FEET LOOKS TO BE REASONABLE FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
SOUTH SHORE AROUND THE ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY... AND
THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND.


&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...FUJII








000
FXHW60 PHFO 022000
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
PERIODS OF BREEZY TRADES EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE...AND A TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL
FOCUS SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES. SMALL POCKETS OF MOISTURE
RIDING IN ON THE TRADE WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY BOOST RAINFALL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
AT TIMES BREEZY TRADE WINDS WITH SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD SLOPES.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY INCREASE A NOTCH
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. A 1029 MB HIGH NEARLY 1300 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS IS DRIVING THE TRADE WINDS. THE HIGH WILL BE WEAKENED
BY A SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ACROSS THE STATE...WE WILL ONLY SEE A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE TRADES. THE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD EARLY
IN THE WORK WEEK...PUSHING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS INTO THE LOCALLY
BREEZY RANGE BY TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING A NOTCH ON WEDNESDAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A STRONGER HIGH SETTING UP NORTH OF THE STATE
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
TRADES.

A RATHER TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO FAVOR
WINDWARD SLOPES. UNLIKE THE BAND OF MOISTURE THAT MOVED THROUGH
YESTERDAY MORNING...FORECAST MODELS DO NOT DETECT ANY ORGANIZED
AREAS OF MOISTURE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A
RESULT...MODEST SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES...WITH MOST
LEEWARD AREAS REMAINING SOMEWHAT DRY. POCKETS OF MOISTURE PASSING
THROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASES IN SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT WE WILL BE
ABLE PINPOINT THOSE EPISODES WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO THE
MOISTURE REACHING THE ISLANDS. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE WEEK...KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER STABLE WITH THE
INVERSION MAINLY VARYING BETWEEN AROUND 7000 TO 9000 FT.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...THOUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENING...WILL
SUPPORT TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUS
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. RANDOM CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
RIDING IN WITH THE TRADES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED MVFR CIGS AND VIS
ALONG THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. SOUNDING DATA IMPLYING
CLOUD HEIGHTS IN THE 8000 TO 10000 FEET RANGE THIS MORNING.

AIRMET TANGO CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURB OVER AND S THRU
W OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE
SCA WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO MONDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
TO ADDITIONAL WATERS FOR TUESDAY AS EASTERLY TRADES BRIEFLY
INCREASE. AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY
WATERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND COULD NEED TO BE EXPANDED AGAIN TO
ADDITIONAL WATERS BY FRIDAY.

WITH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAINING AT FRESH TO AT TIMES STRONG
LEVELS OVER AND UPWIND OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEK...
SHORT-PERIOD EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL PERSIST. WINDWARD CDIP BUOYS
ARE SHOWING SEAS IN THE 7-8 FT AT 9 SECONDS RANGE THIS MORNING...AND
ASIDE FROM A BRIEF DROP OF A FOOT OR SO ON SUNDAY...EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...ROUGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES WILL REMAIN AROUND THE HEAD HIGH RANGE.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON TUESDAY
AND PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SWELL IS CURRENTLY BUILDING
AT AMERICAN SAMOA...WHERE THE CDIP BUOY IS REGISTERING SEAS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE. THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL HAS BEEN
FORECASTING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL OF AROUND 7 FT AT SAMOA. WE
TYPICALLY EXPECT TO SEE ABOUT HALF OF THAT SWELL ENERGY REACHING
HAWAII...AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL OF 4
FEET LOOKS TO BE REASONABLE FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
SOUTH SHORE AROUND THE ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY... AND
THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND.


&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...FUJII















000
FXHW60 PHFO 022000
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
PERIODS OF BREEZY TRADES EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE...AND A TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL
FOCUS SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES. SMALL POCKETS OF MOISTURE
RIDING IN ON THE TRADE WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY BOOST RAINFALL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
AT TIMES BREEZY TRADE WINDS WITH SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD SLOPES.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY INCREASE A NOTCH
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. A 1029 MB HIGH NEARLY 1300 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS IS DRIVING THE TRADE WINDS. THE HIGH WILL BE WEAKENED
BY A SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ACROSS THE STATE...WE WILL ONLY SEE A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE TRADES. THE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD EARLY
IN THE WORK WEEK...PUSHING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS INTO THE LOCALLY
BREEZY RANGE BY TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING A NOTCH ON WEDNESDAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A STRONGER HIGH SETTING UP NORTH OF THE STATE
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
TRADES.

A RATHER TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO FAVOR
WINDWARD SLOPES. UNLIKE THE BAND OF MOISTURE THAT MOVED THROUGH
YESTERDAY MORNING...FORECAST MODELS DO NOT DETECT ANY ORGANIZED
AREAS OF MOISTURE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A
RESULT...MODEST SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES...WITH MOST
LEEWARD AREAS REMAINING SOMEWHAT DRY. POCKETS OF MOISTURE PASSING
THROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASES IN SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT WE WILL BE
ABLE PINPOINT THOSE EPISODES WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO THE
MOISTURE REACHING THE ISLANDS. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE WEEK...KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER STABLE WITH THE
INVERSION MAINLY VARYING BETWEEN AROUND 7000 TO 9000 FT.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...THOUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENING...WILL
SUPPORT TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUS
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. RANDOM CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
RIDING IN WITH THE TRADES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED MVFR CIGS AND VIS
ALONG THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. SOUNDING DATA IMPLYING
CLOUD HEIGHTS IN THE 8000 TO 10000 FEET RANGE THIS MORNING.

AIRMET TANGO CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURB OVER AND S THRU
W OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE
SCA WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO MONDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
TO ADDITIONAL WATERS FOR TUESDAY AS EASTERLY TRADES BRIEFLY
INCREASE. AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY
WATERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND COULD NEED TO BE EXPANDED AGAIN TO
ADDITIONAL WATERS BY FRIDAY.

WITH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAINING AT FRESH TO AT TIMES STRONG
LEVELS OVER AND UPWIND OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEK...
SHORT-PERIOD EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL PERSIST. WINDWARD CDIP BUOYS
ARE SHOWING SEAS IN THE 7-8 FT AT 9 SECONDS RANGE THIS MORNING...AND
ASIDE FROM A BRIEF DROP OF A FOOT OR SO ON SUNDAY...EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...ROUGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES WILL REMAIN AROUND THE HEAD HIGH RANGE.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON TUESDAY
AND PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SWELL IS CURRENTLY BUILDING
AT AMERICAN SAMOA...WHERE THE CDIP BUOY IS REGISTERING SEAS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE. THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL HAS BEEN
FORECASTING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL OF AROUND 7 FT AT SAMOA. WE
TYPICALLY EXPECT TO SEE ABOUT HALF OF THAT SWELL ENERGY REACHING
HAWAII...AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL OF 4
FEET LOOKS TO BE REASONABLE FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
SOUTH SHORE AROUND THE ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY... AND
THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND.


&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...FUJII














000
FXHW60 PHFO 022000
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
PERIODS OF BREEZY TRADES EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE...AND A TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL
FOCUS SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES. SMALL POCKETS OF MOISTURE
RIDING IN ON THE TRADE WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY BOOST RAINFALL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
AT TIMES BREEZY TRADE WINDS WITH SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD SLOPES.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY INCREASE A NOTCH
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. A 1029 MB HIGH NEARLY 1300 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS IS DRIVING THE TRADE WINDS. THE HIGH WILL BE WEAKENED
BY A SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ACROSS THE STATE...WE WILL ONLY SEE A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE TRADES. THE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD EARLY
IN THE WORK WEEK...PUSHING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS INTO THE LOCALLY
BREEZY RANGE BY TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING A NOTCH ON WEDNESDAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A STRONGER HIGH SETTING UP NORTH OF THE STATE
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
TRADES.

A RATHER TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO FAVOR
WINDWARD SLOPES. UNLIKE THE BAND OF MOISTURE THAT MOVED THROUGH
YESTERDAY MORNING...FORECAST MODELS DO NOT DETECT ANY ORGANIZED
AREAS OF MOISTURE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A
RESULT...MODEST SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES...WITH MOST
LEEWARD AREAS REMAINING SOMEWHAT DRY. POCKETS OF MOISTURE PASSING
THROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASES IN SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT WE WILL BE
ABLE PINPOINT THOSE EPISODES WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO THE
MOISTURE REACHING THE ISLANDS. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE WEEK...KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER STABLE WITH THE
INVERSION MAINLY VARYING BETWEEN AROUND 7000 TO 9000 FT.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...THOUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENING...WILL
SUPPORT TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUS
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. RANDOM CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
RIDING IN WITH THE TRADES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED MVFR CIGS AND VIS
ALONG THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. SOUNDING DATA IMPLYING
CLOUD HEIGHTS IN THE 8000 TO 10000 FEET RANGE THIS MORNING.

AIRMET TANGO CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURB OVER AND S THRU
W OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE
SCA WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO MONDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
TO ADDITIONAL WATERS FOR TUESDAY AS EASTERLY TRADES BRIEFLY
INCREASE. AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY
WATERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND COULD NEED TO BE EXPANDED AGAIN TO
ADDITIONAL WATERS BY FRIDAY.

WITH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAINING AT FRESH TO AT TIMES STRONG
LEVELS OVER AND UPWIND OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEK...
SHORT-PERIOD EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL PERSIST. WINDWARD CDIP BUOYS
ARE SHOWING SEAS IN THE 7-8 FT AT 9 SECONDS RANGE THIS MORNING...AND
ASIDE FROM A BRIEF DROP OF A FOOT OR SO ON SUNDAY...EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...ROUGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES WILL REMAIN AROUND THE HEAD HIGH RANGE.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON TUESDAY
AND PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SWELL IS CURRENTLY BUILDING
AT AMERICAN SAMOA...WHERE THE CDIP BUOY IS REGISTERING SEAS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE. THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL HAS BEEN
FORECASTING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL OF AROUND 7 FT AT SAMOA. WE
TYPICALLY EXPECT TO SEE ABOUT HALF OF THAT SWELL ENERGY REACHING
HAWAII...AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL OF 4
FEET LOOKS TO BE REASONABLE FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
SOUTH SHORE AROUND THE ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY... AND
THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND.


&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...FUJII














000
FXHW60 PHFO 022000
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
PERIODS OF BREEZY TRADES EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE...AND A TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL
FOCUS SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES. SMALL POCKETS OF MOISTURE
RIDING IN ON THE TRADE WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY BOOST RAINFALL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
AT TIMES BREEZY TRADE WINDS WITH SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD SLOPES.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY INCREASE A NOTCH
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. A 1029 MB HIGH NEARLY 1300 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS IS DRIVING THE TRADE WINDS. THE HIGH WILL BE WEAKENED
BY A SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ACROSS THE STATE...WE WILL ONLY SEE A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE TRADES. THE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD EARLY
IN THE WORK WEEK...PUSHING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS INTO THE LOCALLY
BREEZY RANGE BY TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING A NOTCH ON WEDNESDAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A STRONGER HIGH SETTING UP NORTH OF THE STATE
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
TRADES.

A RATHER TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO FAVOR
WINDWARD SLOPES. UNLIKE THE BAND OF MOISTURE THAT MOVED THROUGH
YESTERDAY MORNING...FORECAST MODELS DO NOT DETECT ANY ORGANIZED
AREAS OF MOISTURE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A
RESULT...MODEST SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES...WITH MOST
LEEWARD AREAS REMAINING SOMEWHAT DRY. POCKETS OF MOISTURE PASSING
THROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASES IN SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT WE WILL BE
ABLE PINPOINT THOSE EPISODES WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO THE
MOISTURE REACHING THE ISLANDS. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE WEEK...KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER STABLE WITH THE
INVERSION MAINLY VARYING BETWEEN AROUND 7000 TO 9000 FT.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...THOUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENING...WILL
SUPPORT TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUS
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. RANDOM CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
RIDING IN WITH THE TRADES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED MVFR CIGS AND VIS
ALONG THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. SOUNDING DATA IMPLYING
CLOUD HEIGHTS IN THE 8000 TO 10000 FEET RANGE THIS MORNING.

AIRMET TANGO CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURB OVER AND S THRU
W OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE
SCA WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO MONDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
TO ADDITIONAL WATERS FOR TUESDAY AS EASTERLY TRADES BRIEFLY
INCREASE. AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY
WATERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND COULD NEED TO BE EXPANDED AGAIN TO
ADDITIONAL WATERS BY FRIDAY.

WITH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAINING AT FRESH TO AT TIMES STRONG
LEVELS OVER AND UPWIND OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEK...
SHORT-PERIOD EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL PERSIST. WINDWARD CDIP BUOYS
ARE SHOWING SEAS IN THE 7-8 FT AT 9 SECONDS RANGE THIS MORNING...AND
ASIDE FROM A BRIEF DROP OF A FOOT OR SO ON SUNDAY...EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...ROUGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES WILL REMAIN AROUND THE HEAD HIGH RANGE.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON TUESDAY
AND PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SWELL IS CURRENTLY BUILDING
AT AMERICAN SAMOA...WHERE THE CDIP BUOY IS REGISTERING SEAS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE. THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL HAS BEEN
FORECASTING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL OF AROUND 7 FT AT SAMOA. WE
TYPICALLY EXPECT TO SEE ABOUT HALF OF THAT SWELL ENERGY REACHING
HAWAII...AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL OF 4
FEET LOOKS TO BE REASONABLE FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
SOUTH SHORE AROUND THE ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY... AND
THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND.


&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...FUJII















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