000
FXHW60 PHFO 191936
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE RIDGE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE STATE WILL
DRIVE MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK. A
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME RAINFALL PATTERN WILL FOCUS MODEST RAINFALL OVER
WINDWARD SLOPES OF ALL ISLANDS...WHILE LEEWARD BIG ISLAND SLOPES
SEE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL HOLD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
WITH LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS SETTLING IN FOR THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE
RIDGE ABOUT 550 MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS IS DRIVING THE TRADE
WINDS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS WEAKENING THE
RIDGE SLIGHTLY...AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BUOYS 51101 AND
51003 HAS DECLINED BY NEARLY 1 MB SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE
FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE STATE A LITTLE MORE AND
CAUSING TRADES TO DECLINE JUST A NOTCH. THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME LOCALLY BREEZY
AGAIN.
EXPECT A RATHER TYPICAL...TRADE WIND RAINFALL PATTERN TO FOCUS
SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD SLOPES. RANDOM POCKETS OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG
THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SHORT TERM TWEAKING OF THE
POPS. MORNING SOUNDING AND RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW LOW TO MID
LEVEL RIDGING MAINTAINING STABLE CONDITIONS WITH AN INVERSION MAINLY
IN THE 7000 TO 8000 FOOT RANGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD IS
NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER THE
ISLANDS...BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HIGH CLOUDS EAST OF THE
STATE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST DURING THE
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY DECREASING POPS. IN ADDITION...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE WEST...WE COULD SEE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING OVER THE ISLANDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. EXPECT ISOL MVFR CIGS
OVER WINDWARD SLOPES AND POSSIBLY PHTO...MAINLY AT NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SCA...IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE TYPICALLY
WINDY AREAS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. WITH A SLIGHT
DECLINE IN WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM...WE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE
TO DROP THE SCA FOR A DAY OR TWO. SCA CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP
ACROSS THE SAME AREAS ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE IN STORE. MODERATE AND ROUGH SURF WILL
PERSIST ALONG WINDWARD SHORES. SMALL BACKGROUND SOUTH SWELLS WILL
HOLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE SOUTHEAST SWELL
FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL IS
POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NORTH FACING SHORES WILL ALSO
LIKELY SEE A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 600 PM HST TODAY FOR MAALAEA BAY...THE
WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA
CHANNELS.
&&
$$
WROE
000
FXHW60 PHFO 191330
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT TRADE WIND WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THANKS TO PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...MAINLY AT NIGHT AND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LEEWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL SEE
INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33N142W...FAR NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...HAS AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS WEST THROUGH
30N170W. THIS RIDGE IS ABOUT 600 MILES NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS AND EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE ACROSS LOCAL WATERS.
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLOUD COVER ACROSS LOCAL WATERS HAS INCREASED
SINCE LAST EVENING...WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED
WITHIN TRADE FLOW ACROSS WINDWARD WATERS AND LARGE BROKEN LOW CLOUD
PATCHES NOTED ACROSS LEEWARD WATERS. THESE CLOUDS ALSO COVER
WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. RETURN FLOW KEEPS THICK
CLOUD COVER ACROSS LEEWARD AND KAU SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND THIS
MORNING EVEN WITHOUT THE ASSISTANCE OF DAYTIME HEATING. SKY GRIDS
HAVE BEEN CHANGED CHANGED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH ALMOST ALL OF
THIS ACTIVITY TAKING PLACE OVER WATER. LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
STRONG INVERSION AT AROUND 7800 FEET...CAPPING THE DEPTH OF
CONVECTION AND KEEPING TOTAL RAINFALL LIGHT. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WEST OF THE ISLANDS...WITH AN AREA OF
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS JUST SOUTHEAST THROUGH EAST OF THE
ISLANDS MARKING ITS EASTERN FLANK.
MODELS SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING DRIER...WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
GETTING SHALLOWER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
BECOME QUITE SPARSE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH TRADE WINDS
CONTINUING...THIS SPARSE RAINFALL WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER WINDWARD
AREAS. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A BIG LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE
ALEUTIANS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO ITS SOUTH WEAKENING AND SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. THAT SHOULD WEAKEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS AND CAUSE TRADE WIND SPEEDS
TO DROP OFF A BIT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL
REBUILD BY THE WEEKEND AND TRADES WILL LIKELY BECOME LOCALLY BREEZY
AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AVIATION WEATHER AROUND THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR...EXCEPT
FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES OVER SOME
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHRA.
DATA FROM THE VAD WIND PROFILES APPEAR TO BE SHOWING VALUES LESS
THAN THE THRESHOLD WHICH MIGHT INDICATE TEMPO MODERATE LOW-LEVEL
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE MAY OCCUR LEEWARD OF THE MOUNTAINS ON THE
ISLANDS. THEREFORE...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ISSUING AN AIRMET FOR
LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE THIS MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SCA...IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE WINDIER AREAS
AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW US TO DROP THE SCA
FOR A DAY OR TWO. A SCA IS LIKELY TO GO BACK UP AGAIN FRIDAY.
SURF WILL BE GENERALLY SMALL EXCEPT FOR MODERATE SURF ALONG EAST
SHORES DUE TO THE TRADE WINDS. A SMALL SOUTHEAST SWELL MAY AFFECT
THE BIG ISLAND STARTING SUNDAY...BUT THE BIG ISLAND WILL LIKELY
BLOCK MOST OF THE SWELL FROM REACHING THE REST OF THE ISLANDS.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 600 PM HST TODAY FOR MAALAEA BAY...THE
WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA
CHANNELS.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...HOUSTON
000
FXHW60 PHFO 190635
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT TRADE WIND WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THANKS TO PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...MAINLY AT NIGHT AND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LEEWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL SEE
INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 33N144W...FAR NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...HAS AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS WEST THROUGH
30N170W. THIS RIDGE IS ABOUT 600 MILES NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS AND EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE ACROSS LOCAL WATERS.
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PATCHY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN TRADE
FLOW ACROSS WINDWARD WATERS. THESE CLOUDS ALSO COVER WINDWARD AND
MAUKA SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. RETURN FLOW AND AFTERNOON HEATING
KEEP THICK CLOUD COVER ACROSS LEEWARD AND KAU SECTIONS OF THE BIG
ISLAND THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...UNLIKE WINDWARD CLOUD COVER...WE
EXPECT LEEWARD BIG ISLAND CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. RADAR
SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOW
A STRONG INVERSION AT AROUND 7200 FEET...CAPPING THE DEPTH OF
CONVECTION AND KEEPING SHOWERS FAIRLY LIGHT. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WEST OF THE ISLANDS...WITH AN AREA OF BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS JUST EAST OF THE ISLANDS MARKING ITS EASTERN FLANK.
MODELS SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING DRIER...WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
GETTING SHALLOWER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
BECOME QUITE SPARSE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH TRADE WINDS
CONTINUING...THIS SPARSE RAINFALL WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER WINDWARD
AREAS. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A BIG LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE
ALEUTIANS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO ITS SOUTH WEAKENING AND SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. THAT SHOULD WEAKEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS AND CAUSE TRADE WIND SPEEDS
TO DROP OFF A BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE
WILL REBUILD BY THE WEEKEND AND TRADES WILL LIKELY BECOME LOCALLY
BREEZY AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...
THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN AVIATION WEATHER AROUND THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER
SOME WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SCA...IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE
WINDIER AREAS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY ENOUGH TO
ALLOW US TO DROP THE SCA FOR A DAY OR TWO. A SCA IS LIKELY TO GO
BACK UP AGAIN FRIDAY.
SURF WILL BE GENERALLY SMALL EXCEPT FOR MODERATE SURF ALONG EAST
SHORES DUE TO THE TRADE WINDS. A SMALL SOUTHEAST SWELL MAY AFFECT
THE BIG ISLAND STARTING SUNDAY...BUT THE BIG ISLAND WILL LIKELY
BLOCK MOST OF THE SWELL FROM REACHING THE REST OF THE ISLANDS.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 600 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY...
THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA
CHANNELS.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...HOUSTON
000
FXHW60 PHFO 190144
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
TYPICALLY QUIET JUNE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS SPRING GIVES WAY TO
SUMMER. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING.
SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD AREAS...AND THESE SHOWERS WILL
BE MOST ACTIVE DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI...BUT RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SUMMER WILL START THURSDAY EVENING AT 705 PM HST. THIS IS USUALLY
THE DRIEST TIME OF YEAR FOR MOST AREAS OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TYPICALLY
QUIET WEATHER THIS EVENING. THERE ARE PATCHY SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM.
RADARS SHOW ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE ISLANDS FROM
THE EAST IN THE LOCALLY BREEZY TRADEWIND FLOW.
THE COMPUTER MODELS SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING DRIER AND THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GETTING SHALLOWER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO
RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO BE QUITE SPARSE TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH
TRADE WINDS CONTINUING...WHAT RAINFALL WE DO GET WILL BE
CONCENTRATED OVER WINDWARD AREAS. CLIMATOLOGY SHOWS A SUMMERTIME
PEAK IN RAINFALL OVER SOUTH KONA...BUT IT LOOKS AS IF THE LEEWARD
SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY.
COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BIG LOW DEVELOPING UP NEAR THE
ALEUTIANS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOW THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING SOUTH. THAT SHOULD WEAKEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS AND CAUSE TRADE-WIND SPEEDS TO DROP OFF A
BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL RE-BUILD
BY THE WEEKEND AND TRADES WILL LIKELY BECOME LOCALLY BREEZY AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...
THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN AVIATION WEATHER AROUND THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS OVER WINDWARD
AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SCA...IS NOW UP THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE WINDIER
AREAS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW US
TO DROP THE SCA FOR A DAY OR TWO. A SCA IS LIKELY TO GO BACK UP
AGAIN FRIDAY.
SURF WILL BE GENERALLY SMALL EXCEPT FOR MODERATE SURF ALONG EAST
SHORES DUE TO THE TRADE WINDS. A SMALL SOUTHEAST SWELL MAY AFFECT
THE BIG ISLAND STARTING SUNDAY...BUT THE BIG ISLAND WILL LIKELY
BLOCK MOST OF THE SWELL FROM REACHING THE REST OF THE ISLANDS.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 600 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY...
THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA
CHANNELS.
&&
$$
DONALDSON
000
FXHW60 PHFO 181951
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
TYPICALLY QUIET JUNE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS SPRING GIVES WAY TO
SUMMER. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING.
SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD AREAS...AND THESE SHOWERS WILL
BE MOST ACTIVE DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SUMMER WILL START THURSDAY EVENING AT 705 PM HST. THIS IS USUALLY
THE DRIEST TIME OF YEAR FOR MOST AREAS OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TYPICALLY
QUIET WEATHER THIS MORNING. THERE ARE PATCHY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVER
WINDWARD AREAS AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS OVER LEEWARD AREAS. LOW
CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED TO BROKEN UPSTREAM TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS
AND RADARS SHOW SCATTERED...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE MOVING
OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE EAST IN THE LOCALLY BREEZY TRADEWIND FLOW.
THE COMPUTER MODELS SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING DRIER AND THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GETTING SHALLOWER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO BE QUITE SPARSE TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH
TRADE WINDS CONTINUING...WHAT RAINFALL WE DO GET WILL BE
CONCENTRATED OVER WINDWARD AREAS. CLIMATOLOGY SHOWS A SUMMERTIME
PEAK IN RAINFALL OVER SOUTH KONA...BUT IT LOOKS AS IF THE LEEWARD
SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY.
THE COMPUTER MODELS ALL SHOW A BIG...DEEP LOW DEVELOPING UP NEAR THE
ALEUTIANS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOW THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING SOUTH. THAT SHOULD WEAKEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS AND CAUSE TRADE-WIND SPEEDS TO DROP OFF A
BIT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL RE-BUILD BY THE WEEKEND
AND TRADES WILL LIKELY BECOME LOCALLY BREEZY AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...
THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN AVIATION WEATHER AROUND THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS OVER WINDWARD
AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SCA...IS UP THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE WINDIER
AREAS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PROBABLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW US TO DROP THE
SCA FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. A SCA IS LIKELY TO GO BACK UP AGAIN BY
FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURF WILL BE GENERALLY SMALL EXCEPT FOR MODERATE SURF ALONG EAST
SHORES DUE TO THE TRADE WINDS. A SMALL SOUTHEAST SWELL MAY AFFECT
THE BIG ISLAND STARTING SUNDAY...BUT THE BIG ISLAND WILL LIKELY
BLOCK MOST OF THE SWELL FROM REACHING THE REST OF THE ISLANDS.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 600 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY...
THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA
CHANNELS.
&&
$$
DONALDSON
000
FXHW60 PHFO 181415
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
345 AM HST TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH SHOWERS FAVORING MAINLY THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED 1100 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THAT VICINITY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THUS...ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO BENEFIT THE
COOLING TRADES THAT THE HIGH PRODUCES. THE STRENGTH OF THE TRADES
IS SLATED TO EASE OFF SLIGHTLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MODERATE
RANGE...BUT IT WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOCALLY STRONG ABOUT THE FRIDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS WEAKENING OF THE TRADES COMES ABOUT AS THE
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE ARE BEING TESTED BY A FRONT THAT WILL NOT
INFLUENCE THE ISLANDS. THE FRONT WEAKENS...AND BOTH RIDGE AND HIGH
REBUILD LATE IN THE WEEK RESULTING IN THE STRONGER TRADES OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS DAYS THEREAFTER.
NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE DEPTH OF THE
MARINE LAYER IS SLATED TO TOP 8000 FEET. THE LAYER WILL BE
MOIST...AND WITH OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE AND BREEZY TRADES...THE END
RESULT IS PASSING SHOWERS FAVORING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. THE
SOURCE OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIES JUST UPWIND OF THE BIG ISLAND
AND MAUI...AS PART OF A LARGE CLOUD MASS COVERING A SWATH OF AREA
BETWEEN THE ISLANDS AND WEST COAST. THE CLOUD MASS STARTS OFF AS
STABLE STRATUS OFF THE WEST COAST BUT BECOME UNSTABLE CUMULUS JUST
UPWIND OF THE ISLANDS.
SOME GOOD NEWS INSIGHT. THE GFS SOLUTION IS POINTING TO A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER WITH THE INVERSION LOWERING TO 5 TO 7 THOUSAND FEET BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...THANKS TO A STRONGER MID LEVEL RIDGE. THE MARINE
LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY DRIER...SO WITH THAT SAID...WE ARE
LOOKING AT A DRIER TRADE WIND REGIME THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
THAT MAY LAST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE WILL STILL BE
SHOWERS...JUST FEWER.
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS IS PRESENT OVER THE BIG ISLAND THIS MORNING THANKS
TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR KAUAI AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE EAST OF IT
CARRYING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE LOWER LATITUDES. BUT AS THIS
LOW FILLS LATER TODAY...THE CIRRUS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT TO UNTIL 6 AM HST
WEDNESDAY FOR THE WINDIER PLACES AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.
THE SCA WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY IF IT NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED.
BUT THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO EASE SLIGHTLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING THE SCA TO BE DROPPED. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO FIRM UP
BY THE WEEKEND...WITH POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE
WINDIER COASTAL WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. MODERATE SURF
ALONG EAST SHORES DUE TO THE TRADE WINDS.
&&
AVIATION...
THERE WILL AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS OF THE LARGER ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS
AND VIS WITH THE SHOWERS RIDING IN WITH THE TRADES. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS WILL BE FREQUENTING THE AREAS IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN RANGES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY...THE
PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.
&&
$$
LAU
000
FXHW60 PHFO 180623 CCA
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
815 PM HST MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH SHOWERS FAVORING MAINLY THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED 1100 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THAT VICINITY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THUS...ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO BENEFIT THE
COOLING TRADES THAT THE HIGH PRODUCES. THE STRENGTH OF THE TRADES
IS SLATED TO EASE OFF SLIGHTLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MODERATE
RANGE...BUT IT REBOUND INTO THE LOCALLY STRONG ABOUT THE FRIDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS WEAKENING OF THE TRADES COMES ABOUT AS THE
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE ARE BEING TESTED BY A FRONT THAT WILL NOT
INFLUENCE THE ISLANDS. THE FRONT WEAKENS...AND RIDGE AND HIGH
REBUILDS LATE IN THE WEEK RESULTING IN THE STRONGER TRADES OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS DAYS THEREAFTER.
NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE DEPTH OF THE
MARINE LAYER IS SLATED TOP 8000 FEET. THE LAYER ITSELF IS SLATED TO
BE MOIST...ENOUGH TO SUPPORT KIND OF A SHOWERY PATTERN ESPECIALLY
NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. THE GFS SOLUTION IS POINTING TO A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER WITH THE INVERSION LOWERING TO 5 TO 7 THOUSAND FEET BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...THANKS TO A MID LEVEL RIDGE SETTLING IN. THE MARINE
LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY DRIER...SO WITH THIS SAID...WE ARE
LOOKING AT A DRIER TRADE WIND REGIME THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...
LASTING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE WILL STILL BE SHOWERS...
JUST FEWER...AND FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS...
ESPECIALLY NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN SKIES THIS
EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE CIRRUS
IS PART OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER KAUAI WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STILL...EVEN AFTER THE LOW
FILLS...A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW CIRRUS
FROM THE TROPICS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AFFECTING THE BIG ISLAND.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE POP GRIDS AREA WIDE BUT PRIMARILY
THE LEE SIDE OF OAHU TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT TO UNTIL 6 AM HST
WEDNESDAY FOR THE WINDIER PLACES AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.
THE SCA WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY IF IT NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED.
BUT THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO EASE SLIGHTLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR THE SCA TO BE DROPPED. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO FIRM UP BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE WINDIER
COASTAL WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. MODERATE SURF ALONG E
SHORES DUE TO THE TRADE WINDS.
&&
AVIATION...
THERE WILL AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS OF THE LARGER ISLANDS OVERNIGHT... AND BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VIS WITH THE SHOWERS RIDING IN WITH THE TRADES. SOME OF THE SHOWERS
WILL BE FREQUENTING THE AREAS IMMEDIATELY OF THE SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN RANGES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY...THE
PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.
&&
$$
LAU
000
FXHW60 PHFO 180600
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
745 PM HST MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH SHOWERS FAVORING MAINLY THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED 1100 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THAT VICINITY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THUS...ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO BENEFIT THE
COOLING TRADES THAT THE HIGH PRODUCES. THE STRENGTH OF THE TRADES
IS SLATED TO EASE OFF SLIGHTLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MODERATE
RANGE...BUT IT REBOUND INTO THE LOCALLY STRONG ABOUT THE FRIDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS WEAKENING OF THE TRADES COMES ABOUT AS THE
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE ARE BEING TESTED BY A FRONT THAT WILL NOT
INFLUENCE THE ISLANDS. THE FRONT WEAKENS...AND RIDGE AND HIGH
REBUILDS LATE IN THE WEEK RESULTING IN THE STRONGER TRADES OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS DAYS THEREAFTER.
NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE DEPTH OF THE
MARINE LAYER IS SLATED TOP 8000 FEET. THE LAYER ITSELF IS SLATED TO
BE MOIST...ENOUGH TO SUPPORT KIND OF A SHOWERY PATTERN ESPECIALLY
NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. THE GFS SOLUTION IS POINTING TO A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER WITH THE INVERSION LOWERING TO 5 TO 7 THOUSAND FEET BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...THANKS TO A MID LEVEL RIDGE SETTLING IN. THE MARINE
LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY DRIER...SO WITH THIS SAID...WE ARE
LOOKING AT A DRIER TRADE WIND REGIME THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...
LASTING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE WILL STILL BE SHOWERS...
JUST FEWER...AND FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS...
ESPECIALLY NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE POP GRIDS AREA WIDE BUT PRIMARILY
THE LEE SIDE OF OAHU TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT TO UNTIL 6 AM HST
WEDNESDAY FOR THE WINDIER PLACES AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.
THE SCA WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY IF IT NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED.
BUT THE TRADES AREAS EXPECTED TO EASE SLIGHTLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR THE SCA TO BE DROPPED. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO FIRM UP BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE WINDIER
COASTAL WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. MODERATE SURF ALONG E
SHORES DUE TO THE TRADE WINDS.
&&
AVIATION...
THERE WILL AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS OF THE LARGER ISLANDS OVERNIGHT... AND BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VIS WITH THE SHOWERS RIDING IN WITH THE TRADES. SOME OF THE SHOWERS
WILL BE FREQUENTING THE AREAS IMMEDIATELY OF THE SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN RANGES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY...THE
PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.
&&
$$
LAU
000
FXHW60 PHFO 180111
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
311 PM HST MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
TRADE WIND WEATHER OVER THE ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS ABOUT 700 MILES N OF THE ISLANDS...
KEEPING MODERATE TRADES BLOWING ACROSS THE CHAIN. AT THE SAME TIME...
A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH /TUTT/ IS LOCATED JUST W OF
THE ISLANDS. THE TUTT APPEARS TO BE ALLOWING A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
DISTRIBUTION OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...WITH THE 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING
A CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 7500 FT.
A VERY MINOR SLACKENING OF THE TRADES IS EXPECTED WED-FRI AS GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE RIDGE TO THE N TEMPORARILY WEAKENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW US
TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON WED...BUT SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH
CHANGE IN THE SHORT PERIOD EAST SHORE WIND SWELL. THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY
REESTABLISH ITSELF THIS WEEKEND. THE TUTT WILL WEAKEN A BIT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...AND VERY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO THE E OF
THE ISLANDS SHOULD MOVE IN AND FURTHER STABILIZE THE AIRMASS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW NORMAL WED
NIGHT AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD RESULT IN EVEN FEWER WINDWARD AND
MAUKA SHOWERS.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
&&
$$
R BALLARD
000
FXHW60 PHFO 171959
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
TRADE WIND WEATHER OVER THE ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AMDAR SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING FROM PHNL SHOW A FAIRLY TYPICAL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR 7000 FT. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ABOUT 650 MI
N OF THE ISLANDS IS KEEPING MODERATE TRADES BLOWING ACROSS THE
ISLANDS. A TROUGH AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS W OF THE ISLANDS IS
NOT HAVING TOO MUCH EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER...BUT MAY HAVE BEEN
PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AFTERNOON BULIDUPS OVER MAUNA LOA
YESTERDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
THE MODELS SHOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUING TO THE N. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE TRADES THU/FRI AS THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY WEAKENS. EXPECT VERY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT WED. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE AIRMASS
BECOMING DRIER THAN NORMAL AND EVEN MORE STABLE AFTER WED...
WITH 700 MB TEMPS GETTING BACK INTO DOUBLE-DIGIT TERRITORY.
&&
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN AVIATION WX IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED AND BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WINDWARD AND
MT.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS FOR THE WINDIER COASTAL WATERS
AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS
MAY EASE ENOUGH BY WED/THU FOR THE SCA TO BE DROPPED. THE TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO FIRM UP BY THE WEEKEND...WITH POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO THE WINDIER COASTAL WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND. MODERATE SURF ALONG E SHORES DUE TO THE TRADE WINDS.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SCA UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY...THE WATERS SOUTH OF
THE BIG ISLAND...AND THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS.
&&
$$
R BALLARD
000
FXHW60 PHFO 171432 CCA
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN TRADE WINDS
TO THE ISLANDS. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE WINDS WILL
AFFECT MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS. THE TRADES WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN WEAKEN A BIT ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TRADE WIND WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...AS
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE WINDS ARE AFFECTING MAINLY
WINDWARD AREAS. THERE IS THE USUAL SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE LOW CLOUD
COVERAGE AS WELL AS SHOWERS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY OVERNIGHT. SOME
OF THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TRADE WINDS
ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO CARRY SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS TO THE LEE AREAS
OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE IN THE ISLAND VICINITY
AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE
MINIMAL WEATHER IMPACT. EARLY MORNING LIHUE AND HILO SOUNDINGS SHOW
A TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PROFILE...WITH AN INVERSION AT 7 TO
8 THOUSAND FEET.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTHEAST WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK AND WILL MAINTAIN TRADE WINDS AS WELL AS TRADE WIND WEATHER TO
THE STATE. FORECAST CHARTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSING
FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS BY THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTHEAST BEING DISPLACED FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE STATE...RESULTING IN A WEAKENING OF TRADE WINDS OVER THE
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TRADES MAY AGAIN STRENGTHEN BY
THE NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE IS SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS UPON HOW MUCH THE WINDS WILL INCREASE.
&&
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN AVIATION WEATHER AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
VFR EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS OVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS.
&&
.MARINE...
LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE WINDIER COASTAL WATERS AROUND MAUI AND
THE BIG ISLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BELIEVE THE WINDS WILL
EASE ENOUGH BY WEDNESDAY FOR THE ADVISORY TO BE DROPPED FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS. BUT THEN THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO FIRM UP BY THE
END OF THIS WEEK...WITH POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO THE WINDIER COASTAL WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND.
SURF WILL BE SMALL EXCEPT FOR MODERATE SURF ALONG EAST SHORES DUE TO
THE TRADE WINDS.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY...THE
WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA
CHANNELS.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI
AVIATION...FOSTER
000
FXHW60 PHFO 171350
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN TRADE WINDS
TO THE ISLANDS. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE WINDS WILL
AFFECT MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS. THE TRADES WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN WEAKEN A BIT ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TRADE WIND WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...AS
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE WINDS ARE AFFECTING MAINLY
WINDWARD AREAS. THERE IS THE USUAL SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE LOW CLOUD
COVERAGE AS WELL AS SHOWERS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY OVERNIGHT. SOME
OF THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TRADE WINDS
ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO CARRY SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS TO THE LEE AREAS
OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE IN THE ISLAND VICINITY
AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE
MINIMAL WEATHER IMPACT. EARLY MORNING LIHUE AND HILO SOUNDINGS SHOW
A TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PROFILE...WITH AN INVERSION AT 7 TO
8 THOUSAND FEET.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTHEAST WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK AND WILL MAINTAIN TRADE WINDS AS WELL AS TRADE WIND WEATHER TO
THE STATE. FORECAST CHARTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSING
FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS BY THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTHEAST BEING DISPLACED FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE STATE...RESULTING IN A WEAKENING OF TRADE WINDS OVER THE
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TRADES MAY AGAIN STRENGTHEN BY
THE NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE IS SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS UPON HOW MUCH THE WINDS WILL INCREASE.
&&
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN AVIATION WEATHER AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
VFR EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS OVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS.
&&
.MARINE...
LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE WINDIER COASTAL WATERS AROUND MAUI AND
THE BIG ISLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BELIEVE THE WINDS WILL
EASE ENOUGH BY WEDNESDAY FOR THE ADVISORY TO BE DROPPED FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS. BUT THEN THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO FIRM UP BY THE
END OF THIS WEEK...WITH POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO THE WINDIER COASTAL WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND.
SURF WILL BE SMALL EXCEPT FOR MODERATE SURF ALONG EAST SHORES DUE TO
THE TRADE WINDS.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY...THE
WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA
CHANNELS.
&&
$$
.DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI
.AVIATION...FOSTER
000
FXHW60 PHFO 171350
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN TRADE WINDS
TO THE ISLANDS. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE WINDS WILL
AFFECT MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS. THE TRADES WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN WEAKEN A BIT ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TRADE WIND WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...AS
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE WINDS ARE AFFECTING MAINLY
WINDWARD AREAS. THERE IS THE USUAL SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE LOW CLOUD
COVERAGE AS WELL AS SHOWERS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY OVERNIGHT. SOME
OF THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TRADE WINDS
ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO CARRY SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS TO THE LEE AREAS
OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE IN THE ISLAND VICINITY
AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE
MINIMAL WEATHER IMPACT. EARLY MORNING LIHUE AND HILO SOUNDINGS SHOW
A TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PROFILE...WITH AN INVERSION AT 7 TO
8 THOUSAND FEET.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTHEAST WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK AND WILL MAINTAIN TRADE WINDS AS WELL AS TRADE WIND WEATHER TO
THE STATE. FORECAST CHARTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSING
FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS BY THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTHEAST BEING DISPLACED FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE STATE...RESULTING IN A WEAKENING OF TRADE WINDS OVER THE
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TRADES MAY AGAIN STRENGTHEN BY
THE NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE IS SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS UPON HOW MUCH THE WINDS WILL INCREASE.
&&
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN AVIATION WEATHER AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
VFR EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS OVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS.
&&
.MARINE...
LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE WINDIER COASTAL WATERS AROUND MAUI AND
THE BIG ISLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BELIEVE THE WINDS WILL
EASE ENOUGH BY WEDNESDAY FOR THE ADVISORY TO BE DROPPED FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS. BUT THEN THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO FIRM UP BY THE
END OF THIS WEEK...WITH POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO THE WINDIER COASTAL WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND.
SURF WILL BE SMALL EXCEPT FOR MODERATE SURF ALONG EAST SHORES DUE TO
THE TRADE WINDS.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY...THE
WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA
CHANNELS.
&&
$$
.DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI
.AVIATION...FOSTER
000
FXHW60 PHFO 170633
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN TRADE WINDS OVER THE
ISLANDS. THE TRADES WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY THROUGH MID-WEEK. CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE WINDS WILL AFFECT MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS.
A BAND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE BIG ISLAND
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TRADE WIND WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ISLANDS THIS EVENING...AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE WINDS ARE AFFECTING MAINLY
WINDWARD AREAS AT TIMES. SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS EVEN REACH THE LEE
AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS UNDER THE MODERATE TRADES. COAST AND
LOW SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND ARE STILL COVERED UNDER DAYTIME
CONVECTION...THOUGH SLOW CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR THE LEE AREAS OF
THE BIG ISLAND AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTHEAST WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK AND WILL MAINTAIN TRADE WINDS AS WELL AS TRADE WIND
WEATHER TO THE STATE. FORECAST CHARTS STILL HINT THE AIR MASS...
MAINLY NEAR THE BIG ISLAND...MAY BECOME MORE MOIST AS SOME TROPICAL
MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE THE BIG
ISLAND MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CHARTS ALSO INDICATE A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY PASS FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS TOWARDS THE LATER PART OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTHEAST BEING
DISPLACED FURTHER AWAY FROM THE STATE...RESULTING IN A WEAKENING OF
TRADE WINDS. THERE IS SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS UPON HOW
MUCH WEAKENING OF THE TRADE WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS. SHALL AWAIT
FUTURE MODEL RUNS BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN AVIATION WEATHER AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS OVER WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS.
&&
.MARINE...
LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR THE WINDIER COASTAL WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND THROUGH MID-WEEK.
SURF WILL BE SMALL EXCEPT FOR MODERATE SURF ALONG EAST SHORES DUE TO
THE TRADE WINDS.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY...THE
WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA
CHANNELS.
&&
$$
.DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI
.AVIATION...FOSTER
000
FXHW60 PHFO 170153
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING OVER
THE ISLANDS. THE TRADES WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-WEEK. THE TRADE WINDS WILL FOCUS SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AREAS. A
BAND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY MAKE THE SHOWERS MORE ACTIVE...MAINLY
ON THE BIG ISLAND...TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW
TYPICALLY QUIET JUNE WEATHER OVER MOST AREAS OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. ON THE SMALLER ISLANDS THERE ARE PATCHY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
OVER WINDWARD AREAS AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS OVER LEEWARD AREAS.
AFTERNOON CLOUDS HAVE COVERED MOST OF THE BIG ISLAND LOWLANDS...AND
THESE CLOUDS HAVE BUILT UP OVER THE HUMUULA SADDLE BETWEEN MAUNA
KEA AND MAUNA LOA. ONE SMALL TOWERING CUMULUS OR CUMULONIMBUS CLOUD
POPPED UP BRIEFLY OVER THE SADDLE. LOW CLOUD COVERAGE UPSTREAM TO
THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS HAS DECREASED SINCE MORNING AND IS NOW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. RADARS SHOW VERY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
MOVING OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS FROM THE EAST IN LOCALLY BREEZY
TRADEWIND FLOW. THERE IS A BIT MORE SHOWER COVERAGE AND THE SHOWERS
ARE MORE ACTIVE SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND.
THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMING MORE MOIST...MAINLY NEAR THE BIG ISLAND...AS
SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH. THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE NOT AT
THEIR BEST FORECASTING LOW-LEVEL TROPICAL FEATURES...BUT IT IS
REASONABLE TO EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO INCREASE ON THE BIG
ISLAND TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
CONCENTRATED OVER WINDWARD AREAS. HOWEVER THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
MAY ALSO CAUSE MORE CLOUDINESS...AND POSSIBLY MORE SHOWERS...OVER
THE INTERIOR AND LEEWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND.
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS BOTH SHOW SOME WEAKENING IN THE
TRADE WINDS BY MID-WEEK AS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DEVELOPS NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. THE ECMWF EMPHASIZES THIS CHANGE MORE
THAN THE GFS. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT ALWAYS DO A GOOD JOB OF
FORECASTING SMALL CHANGES IN THE TRADE-WIND FLOW VERY FAR AHEAD OF
TIME...SO IT IS TOO SOON TO BE VERY CONFIDENT ABOUT MUCH WEAKENING
OF THE TRADES. WE ARE FORECASTING THE TRADE WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO EXCEED THE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD OVER THE
WINDIER MARINE ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION...
THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN AVIATION WEATHER AROUND THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS OVER WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE WINDIER
AREAS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.
SURF WILL BE SMALL EXCEPT FOR MODERATE SURF ALONG EAST SHORES DUE TO
THE TRADE WINDS.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY...THE
WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA
CHANNELS.
&&
$$
DONALDSON
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