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000
FXHW60 PHFO 311344
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
344 AM HST FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM A DISSIPATING FRONT ALONG WITH BREEZY TRADE WINDS
WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS. TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY
OVER WINDWARD AREAS...SPILLING INTO SOME LEEWARD AREAS AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FAST MOVING SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED TO AFFECT MAINLY WINDWARD
SECTIONS OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED
MOSTLY LOW TOPPED AND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY...WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE RAPID MOTION HAS PREVENTED ANY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DISSIPATING FRONT
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE...WITH A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED
ABOUT 1100 MILES NORTH OF HONOLULU. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PREVAIL
OVER THE REGION TO THE SOUTH OF THIS HIGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE...
WITH SOME CUMULONIMBUS DEVELOPING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTHEAST OF MAUI...AND WITHIN THE REGION OF
FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW. MIMIC-TPW
IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROW RIBBON OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ALONG THE
DISSIPATING FRONT LYING ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS
WERE QUITE MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN THE LOWER LEVELS UP
TO AROUND 700 MB...BUT WERE VERY DRY ABOVE.

FOR TODAY...WOULD EXPECT FREQUENT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS...WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS SPILLING OVER INTO
LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS DUE TO THE BRISK TRADE
WIND FLOW. IT APPEARS THAT THE SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIRMASS ALOFT
WILL PROBABLY PREVENT DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING OVER THE
STATE...ALTHOUGH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST OF MAUI.

TRADES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE STATE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD
NORTH OF 30N. LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY DISSIPATED FRONT
AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD KEEP
SHOWERS ACTIVE ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO SPILL INTO SOME LEEWARD AREAS.

DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DATELINE WILL FORCE THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE STATE. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE...WITH
SOME DEGREE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE POSSIBLY BEING DRAWN UP FROM THE
DEEP TROPICS OVER OUR AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS THEN DISSIPATES THE
FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE STATE BY NEXT THURSDAY...AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. TRADES SHOULD INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN...WITH A TYPICAL WINDWARD SHOWER PATTERN CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE ISLANDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THUS THE AIRMET FOR
LOW LEVEL TURB WILL CONTINUE. MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUDS FROM A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ARE NOW STAYING ALONG THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
EDGE OF THE COASTAL WATERS. IN FACT...A FEW CONVECTION HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS LINE AT THIS TIME...WITH CB TOPS FL350. EXPECT
THESE ACTIVITIES TO BE LIMITED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS
AREAS...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS FROM THE BAND WILL SPREAD TO THE ISLANDS
AT TIMES...AND PROVIDING SOME PASSING SHOWERS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SITES...BUT THEN PASSING LOW CLOUDS MAY LEAD
TO BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS. EARLY MORNING LIHUE AND HILO SOUNDINGS REVEALED DRIER
CONDITIONS AT THE UPPER LEVELS. THEREFORE THE MENTION OF LIGHT ICING
WILL BE DROPPED AT THE NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COMBINATION OF NORTH SWELL AND TRADE DRIVEN WIND WAVES CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF ON NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES. ANOTHER
REINFORCING NORTH SWELL WILL ARRIVE TODAY...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES. SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A SLIGHT
BUMP TUESDAY AS A NEW LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVES. ANOTHER SMALL
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AS WELL.

THE OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS MISSED MOST OF THE HAWAIIAN COASTAL
WATERS...BUT INTERPOLATION FROM AVAILABLE DATA ALONG WITH LAND
BASED OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE LIKELY
CONTINUING ACROSS MANY AREAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS
POSTED THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS DUE TO THE
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN
SOME AREAS BY SATURDAY...BUT SCA WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.
THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THOSE ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL- ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...HUI








000
FXHW60 PHFO 311344
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
344 AM HST FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM A DISSIPATING FRONT ALONG WITH BREEZY TRADE WINDS
WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS. TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY
OVER WINDWARD AREAS...SPILLING INTO SOME LEEWARD AREAS AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FAST MOVING SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED TO AFFECT MAINLY WINDWARD
SECTIONS OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED
MOSTLY LOW TOPPED AND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY...WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE RAPID MOTION HAS PREVENTED ANY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DISSIPATING FRONT
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE...WITH A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED
ABOUT 1100 MILES NORTH OF HONOLULU. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PREVAIL
OVER THE REGION TO THE SOUTH OF THIS HIGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE...
WITH SOME CUMULONIMBUS DEVELOPING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTHEAST OF MAUI...AND WITHIN THE REGION OF
FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW. MIMIC-TPW
IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROW RIBBON OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ALONG THE
DISSIPATING FRONT LYING ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS
WERE QUITE MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN THE LOWER LEVELS UP
TO AROUND 700 MB...BUT WERE VERY DRY ABOVE.

FOR TODAY...WOULD EXPECT FREQUENT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS...WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS SPILLING OVER INTO
LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS DUE TO THE BRISK TRADE
WIND FLOW. IT APPEARS THAT THE SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIRMASS ALOFT
WILL PROBABLY PREVENT DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING OVER THE
STATE...ALTHOUGH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST OF MAUI.

TRADES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE STATE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD
NORTH OF 30N. LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY DISSIPATED FRONT
AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD KEEP
SHOWERS ACTIVE ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO SPILL INTO SOME LEEWARD AREAS.

DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DATELINE WILL FORCE THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE STATE. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE...WITH
SOME DEGREE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE POSSIBLY BEING DRAWN UP FROM THE
DEEP TROPICS OVER OUR AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS THEN DISSIPATES THE
FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE STATE BY NEXT THURSDAY...AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. TRADES SHOULD INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN...WITH A TYPICAL WINDWARD SHOWER PATTERN CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE ISLANDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THUS THE AIRMET FOR
LOW LEVEL TURB WILL CONTINUE. MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUDS FROM A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ARE NOW STAYING ALONG THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
EDGE OF THE COASTAL WATERS. IN FACT...A FEW CONVECTION HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS LINE AT THIS TIME...WITH CB TOPS FL350. EXPECT
THESE ACTIVITIES TO BE LIMITED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS
AREAS...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS FROM THE BAND WILL SPREAD TO THE ISLANDS
AT TIMES...AND PROVIDING SOME PASSING SHOWERS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SITES...BUT THEN PASSING LOW CLOUDS MAY LEAD
TO BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS. EARLY MORNING LIHUE AND HILO SOUNDINGS REVEALED DRIER
CONDITIONS AT THE UPPER LEVELS. THEREFORE THE MENTION OF LIGHT ICING
WILL BE DROPPED AT THE NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COMBINATION OF NORTH SWELL AND TRADE DRIVEN WIND WAVES CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF ON NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES. ANOTHER
REINFORCING NORTH SWELL WILL ARRIVE TODAY...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES. SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A SLIGHT
BUMP TUESDAY AS A NEW LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVES. ANOTHER SMALL
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AS WELL.

THE OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS MISSED MOST OF THE HAWAIIAN COASTAL
WATERS...BUT INTERPOLATION FROM AVAILABLE DATA ALONG WITH LAND
BASED OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE LIKELY
CONTINUING ACROSS MANY AREAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS
POSTED THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS DUE TO THE
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN
SOME AREAS BY SATURDAY...BUT SCA WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.
THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THOSE ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL- ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...HUI








000
FXHW60 PHFO 310643
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
843 PM HST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM A DISSIPATING FRONT WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT SHOWERS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS. BREEZY
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING A
NOTCH OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDWARD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE A DECREASE IN LEEWARD SHOWERS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FAST MOVING SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY WINDWARD SECTIONS OF
THE STATE THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY LOW
TOPPED AND LIGHT TO MODERATE...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE RAPID
MOTION HAS PREVENTED ANY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SURFACE
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DISSIPATING FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF
THE STATE...WITH A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED ABOUT 1100 MILES NORTH
OF HONOLULU. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS HIGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IN THE PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE AREA...WHILE MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROW RIBBON OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE ALONG THE DISSIPATING FRONT LYING ACROSS KAUAI
AND OAHU. THE 00Z LIHUE SOUNDING FOUND NO SIGNIFICANT INVERSION
AND SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL PWAT OF 1.64 INCHES...WHILE THE 00Z HILO
SOUNDING FOUND MORE TYPICAL CONDITIONS WITH AN INVERSION BASED
NEAR 8000 FEET AND A NEAR NORMAL PWAT OF 1.32 INCHES.

OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WOULD EXPECT FREQUENT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS SPILLING OVER
INTO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS DUE TO THE BRISK
TRADE WIND FLOW. THE PRESENCE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ALOFT COULD ALLOW FOR GREATER VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF SOME OF THE
SHOWERS...BUT THE CONTINUED FAST SHOWER MOTION WILL MAKE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNLIKELY UNLESS A TRAINING SITUATION IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP. MODELS INDICATE A LOW BUT NON-ZERO POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP UNDERNEATH THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF MAUI...BUT GIVEN THAT NO STORMS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED IN THE REGION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WILL NOT
INCLUDE SUCH IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE
PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

TRADES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE STATE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD
NORTH OF 30N. LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY DISSIPATED FRONT
AND THE PROXIMITY OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS
ACTIVE ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO SPILL INTO SOME LEEWARD AREAS.

DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DATELINE WILL FORCE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE STATE. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE...WITH
SOME DEGREE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE POSSIBLY BEING DRAWN UP FROM THE
DEEP TROPICS OVER OUR AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS THEN DISSIPATES THE
FRONT NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATE BY NEXT THURSDAY...AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. TRADES SHOULD INCREASE
A NOTCH ONCE AGAIN...WITH A TYPICAL WINDWARD SHOWER PATTERN
CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLANDS THIS
EVENING AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREFORE THE AIRMET FOR
LOW LEVEL TURB WILL PERSIST. LOW CLOUDS FROM A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT HAVE REACHED KAUAI AT THIS TIME AND WILL SPREAD TO THE REST OF
THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHRA AND MVFR CEILING
CONDITIONS FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THERE
MAY EVEN BE ENOUGH LOW CLOUDS TO WARRANT AN AIRMET FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS. MOISTURE AT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH HAS SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS
AND BROUGHT LIGHT ICING TO THOSE AREA...AS REPORTED BY AN AIRCRAFT
EARLIER. EXPECT THE MOISTURE TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AND THUS THE
CONDITION WILL END.

&&

.MARINE...
A COMBINATION OF NORTH SWELL AND TRADE DRIVEN WIND WAVES CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF ON NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES. ANOTHER
REINFORCING NORTH SWELL WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR EAST FACING SHORES. SURF ALONG
SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A
SLIGHT BUMP TUESDAY AS A NEW LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVES. ANOTHER
SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AS WELL.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT BY SATURDAY...BUT SCA WINDS WILL
PROBABLY CONTINUE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS AROUND MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND
LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...HUI








000
FXHW60 PHFO 310210
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
410 PM HST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM A DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. BREEZY
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DROPPING A NOTCH
OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDWARD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE A DROP IN LEEWARD SHOWERS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BRING
INCREASING SHOWERS TO THE SMALLER ISLANDS TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGERY
FROM 3 PM SHOWS PASSING SHOWERS OVER KAUAI AND OAHU WHILE
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DISSIPATING FRONT AS A 150 MILE WIDE
BAND OF SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH OVER THE STATE.
THE SHOWERY WEATHER WILL REACH MAUI COUNTY LATER TONIGHT.

A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS USHERING IN STRONG TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE STATE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC. MOISTURE
FROM THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BRING OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND
CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. KAUAI AND OAHU WILL
SEE THE MOST CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT NEAR OAHU
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH... LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP
WINDWARD RAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PASSING LEEWARD
SHOWERS EXPECTED.

THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND MAINTAIN ITS EASTWARD TRACK OVER THE
WEEKEND... AND TRADE WINDS WILL DROP GRADUALLY INTO NEXT WEEK.
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
TRADES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES THE WEAK FRONT OVER THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MODERATE TRADES BUILDING IN OVER THE ISLANDS HAVE PROMPTED AN AIRMET
FOR TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF THE ISLANDS. MODERATE GUSTY TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT PASSING OVER THE ISLANDS IS BRINGING PASSING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS. THIS IS AT TIMES BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS TO
KAUAI AND OAHU...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

BY TOMORROW...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE IMPACTING THE
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTH SWELL CONTINUES TO BRING ELEVATED SURF TO EXPOSED SHORES
TODAY WITH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY POSTED FOR EAST SHORES AFFECTED BY
NORTH SWELL. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK LATER TODAY...WITH
ANOTHER REINFORCING NORTH SWELL ARRIVING TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE NORTH SWELLS...IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE EAST SHORE ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. NORTH FACING SHORES WILL ALSO SEE THE ELEVATED SURF BUT
WITH A HIGHER CRITERIA FOR THE NORTH SHORE AN ADVISORY HAS NOT
BEEN ISSUED. SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A SLIGHT BUMP TUESDAY AS A NEW LONG PERIOD
SWELL ARRIVES. ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY
AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSTED FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS FOR WINDS
AND SEAS. THE SCA AREAS WILL LIKELY BE PAIRED DOWN TO THE TYPICALLY
WINDY AREAS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-
OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND
LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
M BALLARD...AVIATION








000
FXHW60 PHFO 301954
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
954 AM HST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER KAUAI THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DROPPING A NOTCH OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDWARD
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE A DROP IN LEEWARD
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING FRONT IS APPROACHING KAUAI THIS MORNING AND WILL REACH
THE GARDEN ISLE THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR IMAGERY FROM 9 AM SHOWS A
LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE NORTH SHORE OF KAUAI. SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF
KAUAI AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER KAUAI
THIS AFTERNOON. OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT OVERRUNS THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. WINDWARD BIG ISLAND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT.

A 1037 MB HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS USHERING IN STRONG TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE STATE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL BRING OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY. KAUAI AND OAHU WILL SEE THE
MOST CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM THE FRONT AS IT STALLS AND DISSIPATES
NEAR OAHU FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH... LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE BOUNDARY
WILL KEEP WINDWARD RAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PASSING
LEEWARD SHOWERS EXPECTED.

SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS OVER THE
SMALLER ISLANDS.

THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND MAINTAIN ITS EASTWARD TRACK OVER THE
WEEKEND... AND TRADE WINDS WILL DROP GRADUALLY INTO NEXT WEEK.
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY OVER MAUI COUNTY AND THE
BIG ISLAND. CLOUDS/SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO KAUAI AND OAHU...WHICH COULD BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS TO THOSE ISLANDS...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
REQUIRE A MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AIRMET. WET TRADES WILL RETURN BY
TOMORROW...WHICH WILL FOCUS CLOUDS/SHOWERS/MVFR CONDITIONS OVER
MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.

WINDS ARE ON THE INCREASE...AND A LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AIRMET MAY
BE NEEDED BY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...
A 7 FOOT SHORT PERIOD NORTH SWELL CONTINUES TO BRING ELEVATED SURF
TO EXPOSED SHORES TODAY WITH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY POSTED FOR EAST
SHORES AFFECTED BY NORTH SWELL. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK
LATER TODAY...WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING NORTH SWELL ARRIVING
TONIGHT AND LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NORTH SWELLS...IN COMBINATION
WITH STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE EAST SHORE ADVISORY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTH FACING SHORES WILL ALSO SEE
THE ELEVATED SURF BUT WITH A HIGHER CRITERIA FOR THE NORTH SHORE
AN ADVISORY HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED. SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES
WILL REMAIN SMALL THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A SLIGHT BUMP TUESDAY AS A
NEW LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVES. ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
ARRIVE TUESDAY AS WELL.

THE OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS FOUND SOLID AREAS OF 25 KNOT WINDS ACROSS
THE TYPICALLY WINDY MARINE ZONES SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND IN
THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
SPREAD INTO MOST OTHER MARINE ZONES LATER TODAY AS WINDS AND SEAS
BUILD FURTHER...THEN CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY
INTO SATURDAY. WINDS AND SWELL WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-
OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND
LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
M BALLARD...AVIATION













000
FXHW60 PHFO 301355
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
355 AM HST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME...AND THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER KAUAI THIS AFTERNOON. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PASSES FAR NORTH OF THE
STATE. A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD RETURN
DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
FURTHER NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINED FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS FROM
KAUAI THROUGH MAUI DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SHOWERS
DECREASING SOMEWHAT RECENTLY JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE...WHICH COMBINED
WITH QUICK MOVEMENT HAS KEPT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM BECOMING TOO
HEAVY IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION. A LONE CUMULONIMBUS HAS DEVELOPED
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ABOUT 80 MILES NORTH OF OAHU...
WITH SATELLITE/RADAR ESTIMATED TOPS UP AROUND 35-40K FEET. SURFACE
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK FRONT ABOUT 70 MILES NORTH OF KAUAI...WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1150 MILES TO THE NNW. THIS
HIGH IS FORCING THE FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
STATE. ALOFT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED BETWEEN 140W AND
150W....WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ALONG 160W ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE LARGER TROUGH.
MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY INDICATES A STRIPE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ALONG
THE FRONT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE SHIFTING SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE STATE. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS REFLECTED FAIRLY TYPICAL
CONDITIONS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL AT
JUST OVER 1.3 INCHES AND SOMEWHAT ELEVATED INVERSIONS BASED
BETWEEN 8000 AND 10000 FEET.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SMALLER ISLANDS...AS THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD WELL
TO OUR NORTH. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE LACKING
ALONG THIS FEATURE WITH INCREASING TRADE WIND FLOW ALREADY IN
PLACE...ENHANCED MOISTURE ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO
A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
OF THE SHOWERS TO BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WOULD APPEAR TO BE ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO MAUI COUNTY AS WELL TONIGHT.
LOCALLY DERIVED MOISTURE-STABILITY INDICES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN SECTIONS. THE RECENT CB DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THIS IDEA...AND HAVE INCLUDED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR KAUAI THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDER CHANCES
APPEAR TO DECREASE TONIGHT...BUT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT FOR
THIS EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH LINGERING NEAR OR
JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIVE SHOWERS INTO WINDWARD AREAS...CARRYING OVER INTO SOME
LEEWARD SECTIONS. A FEW HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS
WELL DUE TO LINGERING INSTABILITY ALOFT...BUT RAPID SHOWER MOTIONS
SHOULD KEEP MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM BECOMING EXCESSIVE.

TRADES SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE STATE. WOULD GENERALLY
EXPECT A TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH
SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ENTRAIN DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THIS FRONT MAY
EVENTUALLY REACH THE WESTERN/CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE
IN THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR TO RULE TODAY...EXCEPT FOR KAUAI WHERE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FROM A DISSIPATING FRONT MOVES IN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THAT MAY
WARRANT AIRMET SIERRA FOR WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATION. WE EXPECT THE
TRADES TO STRENGTHEN AREA WIDE AS FRONT BREAKS UP. HOWEVER...LO LVL
TURBC IS A QUESTION MARK SINCE THE INVERSION IS EXPECT TO BE WEAK.
SO WE WILL HOLD BACK ON ISSUING AIRMET TANGO FOR LO LVL TURBC AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR SIGNS OF IT.

THE FRONT IS ABOUT 70 NM NORTH OF KAUAI MOVING SOUTH SLOWLY. AFTER
REACHING KAUAI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL APART UPON REACHING THE CENTRAL ISLANDS DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF TONIGHT. AIRMET SIERRA IS LIKELY TO EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THESE
ISLANDS.

CURRENTLY...CONDS ARE RELATIVELY DRY STATEWIDE. THE PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS HARASSING MAUI COUNTY UNEXPECTEDLY
DISSIPATED. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH OAHU NOW BUT THIS
AREA CONTINUES TO SHRINK AND DISSIPATE. LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS KAUAI BUT IS NOT WIDESPREAD TO WARRANT
AIRMET SIERRA. THE SHOWERS CONTAINS BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VIS...AND THEY WILL BE FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MTN AREAS. WINDWARD
BIG ISLAND STILL HAS SOME SHALLOW CLOUDS ALONG ITS SHORELINE AND ADJ
WATERS BETWEEN UPOLU POINT AND HILO...WHILE THE AFTERNOON CLOUDS OF
YESTERDAY...HAVE DEPARTED HT KONA SIDE. WE EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO
RETURN TO THE KONA SIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE LEADING EDGE TO A BAND OF DENSE HIGH CLOUDS IS JUST TOUCHING
SOUTHERNMOST BIG ISLAND. IT IS THREATENING TO SPREAD NORTH AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.MARINE...
THE EXPECTED NORTH SWELL HAS CONTINUED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...AS DEPICTED BY DATA FROM THE
CDIP MOKAPU POINT BUOY. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK LATER
TODAY...WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING NORTH SWELL ARRIVING TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS...IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG TRADE
WINDS EXPECTED TO BUILD TODAY AND TONIGHT...WILL BRING HAZARDOUS
SURF CONDITIONS TO EAST FACING SHORES OF THE STATE THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST
FACING SHORES. NORTH FACING SHORES WILL ALSO SEE A BOOST TO SURF
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT SURF HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THERE. SURF ALONG THE SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL
REMAIN SMALL THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A SLIGHT BUMP TUESDAY AS A NEW
LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVES. ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
ARRIVE TUESDAY AS WELL.

THE OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS FOUND SOLID AREAS OF 25 KNOT WINDS ACROSS
THE TYPICALLY WINDY MARINE ZONES SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND IN
THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
SPREAD INTO MOST OTHER MARINE ZONES LATER TODAY AS WINDS AND SEAS
BUILD FURTHER...THEN CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY
INTO SATURDAY. WINDS AND SWELL WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM HST SATURDAY
FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD
WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...LAU








000
FXHW60 PHFO 300651
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
851 PM HST WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS OVERNIGHT.
A FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AS IT SLOWLY
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
FAR NORTH OF THE STATE. TRADE WINDS WILL DECREASE A NOTCH DURING
THE WEEKEND AS LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE DISSIPATED FRONT CLEARS
THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD OAHU...
MOLOKAI AND MAUI DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
RATHER PERSISTENT IN THESE AREAS...BUT MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE...WHICH COMBINED WITH QUICK MOVEMENT HAS
KEPT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM BECOMING TOO HEAVY IN ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK FRONT ABOUT 150 MILES
NORTH OF KAUAI...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1200
MILES TO THE NNW. THIS HIGH IS FORCING THE FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE STATE. ALOFT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED
BETWEEN 140W AND 150W....WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG 160W ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF
THE LARGER TROUGH. MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY INDICATES A STRIPE OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGHER
MOISTURE SHIFTING SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE 00Z HILO
SOUNDING REFLECTED THE ADDED MOISTURE PRESENT AT THAT TIME...WITH
A WEAK/ELEVATED INVERSION AND ABOVE NORMAL PWAT OF 1.66 INCHES.
THE 00Z LIHUE SOUNDING REFLECTED MORE TYPICAL CONDITIONS...WITH
A WELL DEFINED INVERSION BASED NEAR 6700 FEET AND BELOW NORMAL
PWAT OF 1.08 INCHES.

OVERNIGHT...SHORT-TERM SATELLITE/RADAR/MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ABUNDANT ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN
THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE...POSSIBLY INCREASING ACROSS KAUAI
AS WELL LATE TONIGHT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL SPILL OVER INTO
FAVORED LEEWARD AREAS. SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT MORE LIMITED
ACROSS THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. THE EXISTING FORECAST APPEARS TO
BE ON TRACK...AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS...AS THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH MOVES
EASTWARD WELL TO OUR NORTH. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
LACKING ALONG THIS FEATURE WITH INCREASING TRADE WIND FLOW IN
PLACE...ENHANCED MOISTURE ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO
A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
OF THE SHOWERS TO BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WOULD APPEAR TO BE ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO MAUI COUNTY
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY DERIVED MOISTURE-STABILITY INDICES
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS.
WILL CONSIDER ADDING ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
REGULAR ISSUANCE THURSDAY MORNING.

THE FRONT WILL THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH LINGERING NEAR OR
JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIVE SHOWERS INTO WINDWARD AREAS...CARRYING OVER INTO SOME
LEEWARD SECTIONS. A FEW HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS
WELL DUE TO LINGERING INSTABILITY ALOFT...BUT RAPID SHOWER MOTIONS
SHOULD KEEP MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM BECOMING EXCESSIVE.

TRADES SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE STATE. GENERALLY WOULD
EXPECT A TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH
SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ENTRAIN DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THE
FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY REACH THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BUT THE MODELS REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THOSE
TIME RANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL BE AFFECTING
PRIMARILY THE CENTRAL ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
ESPECIALLY THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. THESE SHOWERS BEING
GUIDED IN BY THE TRADES CONTAINS MVFR CONDS...AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS. ALSO...A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS
WILL VENTURE FURTHER DOWNWIND INTO THE LEEWARD ZONES OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS. THERE ARE SOME CLOUDS OVER WINDWARD BIG ISLAND BUT THEY
APPEARS TO BE AT THE MID LEVELS ABV 080. ALTHOUGH LEEWARD BIG ISLAND
IS CURRENTLY SHOWER FREE...AN ISOL SHOWER MAY QUICKLY DEVELOP ALONG
THE SHORELINE LATER THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS AFFECTING
OAHU WILL LIKELY DRIFT OVER TO KAUAI LATER THIS EVENING.

NO AIRMET FOR MTN OBSCURATION AT THE MOMENT BUT WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. LIKEWISE FOR LO LVL TURB WHERE THE TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH 301600 UTC.

&&

.MARINE...
THE EXPECTED NORTH SWELL IS ARRIVING INTO THE HAWAIIAN COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING...AS DEPICTED BY INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS AND
PERIODS AT THE CDIP MOKAPU POINT BUOY. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
PEAK ON THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING NORTH SWELL ARRIVING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS...IN COMBINATION WITH
STRONG TRADE WINDS EXPECTED TO BUILD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WILL BRING HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS TO EAST FACING SHORES
OF THE STATE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES. NORTH FACING SHORES WILL
ALSO SEE A BOOST TO SURF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT SURF HEIGHTS
WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THERE. SURF ALONG THE SOUTH
FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A SLIGHT BUMP
TUESDAY AS A NEW LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVES. ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AS WELL.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY
ZONES AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND BIG ISLAND OVERNIGHT. INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS WILL SPREAD SCA CONDITIONS TO MOST OTHER MARINE
ZONES ON THURSDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY
INTO SATURDAY. WINDS AND SWELL WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR
KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD
WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...LAU








000
FXHW60 PHFO 300213
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
413 PM HST WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BREEZY AND GUSTY
TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
FAR NORTH OF THE STATE. TRADE WINDS WILL DECREASE A NOTCH DURING
THE WEEKEND AS LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE DISSIPATED FRONT CLEARS
THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR HAS SHOWN PERSISTENT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
PORTIONS OF OAHU...MOLOKAI AND MAUI TODAY. THESE SHOWERS ARE FROM
A SMALL POCKET OF MOISTURE MOVING IN WITH THE MODERATE TRADE
WINDS. AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIMILAR ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
SINCE THIS MORNING...WITH A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONCENTRATED UNDER A 12 KFT INVERSION AT HILO...WITH DRIER AND
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AT LIHUE. A FEW OF SHOWERS ARE IMPACTING
THE UPPER LEEWARD SLOPES OF THESE ISLANDS. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE WITH RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SIDE.

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
THE STATE WILL PUSH EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WHICH WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS HAWAII ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEGINNING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A FRONT...CURRENTLY LESS THAN 250 MILES NORTH OF
KAUAI...MOVES IN AND STALLS OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. MODELS SHOW
THE FRONT STALLING OVER KAUAI THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SCATTERING THE
MOISTURE FROM THE DISSIPATED FRONT ACROSS THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI AND MAUI FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF SHOWERS ON
WINDWARD SLOPES WHILE LEEWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS SHOULD
SEE BIT A RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM TOO.

IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND WINDS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY
AS WELL. AS A RESULT...HEAVY SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE
FRONT FOR WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE EXPECTED ENHANCEMENT OF THESE SHOWERS BY
THIS FEATURE. WITH RIDGING AT 700 MB AND BELOW DRIVING A RATHER
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE TOO
LOW TO BE WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO PINCH OFF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
ISLANDS ON FRIDAY...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...TRADES WILL BACK OFF A NOTCH AS MOISTURE
FROM THE STALLED AND DISSIPATED FRONT GRADUALLY CLEARS. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...LEADING
TO A DROP IN TRADE WINDS BACK TO MODERATE STRENGTH. THE FORECAST
CALLS FOR SHOWERS TO TREND DOWN ON SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO A
TYPICAL TRADE WIND RAINFALL PATTERN BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS
SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAME OLD FRONT
MOVING ONTO WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AND DRIFTING UP THE ISLAND CHAIN
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY OF THIS SCENARIO
VERIFYING...THIS SOLUTION IS BEING DISCOUNTED FOR NOW. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE ISLANDS WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT...BUT IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ISLANDS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THE FEATURE WILL REACH THE STATE.


&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FAR TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE DUE NORTH OF THE
STATE THURSDAY. THUS NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY BECOMING MORE EAST
NORTHEAST THURSDAY. PASSING TRADE WIND CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EFFECTING
MAINLY WINDWARD SECTIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR
CONDITIONS. THE STRONG WINDS WILL CARRY MUCH OF THE CLOUDS AND SOME
OF THE SHOWERS OVER ONTO THE LEE SIDES OF THE ISLANDS AS WELL BUT
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ON THE LEE SIDES.


&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE SHORT-PERIOD NORTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY LONGER-PERIOD REINFORCEMENT NORTH SWELL
ON FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS...IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG TRADE WINDS
EXPECTED TO BUILD TONIGHT...WILL BRING HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
TO EAST FACING SHORES OF THE STATE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEE
CFWHFO PRODUCT FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION ABOUT THE HIGH SURF.
NORTH FACING SHORES WILL ALSO SEE A BOOST TO SURF OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

THE SWELL AND WIND WILL ALSO BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ WINDS
AND SEAS TO MOST COASTAL WATER ZONES BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING.
FOR TONIGHT...THE TYPICAL WINDY ZONES AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI COUNTY ARE IN EFFECT MAINLY DUE TO WIND ACCELERATION THROUGH
THESE ISLANDS. THE SCA ALSO GOES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

WINDS AND SWELL WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THIS WEEKEND. SURF ALONG
THE SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL AND WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
BUMP WITH A LONG PERIOD SWELL TUESDAY. ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AS WELL.




&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR
KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD
WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...FUJII






000
FXHW60 PHFO 291952
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
952 AM HST WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BREEZY AND GUSTY
TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
FAR NORTH OF THE STATE. TRADE WINDS WILL DECREASE A NOTCH DURING
THE WEEKEND AS LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE DISSIPATED FRONT CLEARS
THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA RAINFALL
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE STATE
WILL PUSH EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...WILL HELP TO KEEP TRADE WINDS
AROUND CURRENT STRENGTH INTO TONIGHT.

EARLY MORNING SOUNDING SHOW A BIT OF AN ELEVATION INVERSION IN
PLACE...AROUND 12 KFT AT HILO AND 9 KFT AT LIHUE. THESE HEIGHTS
ARE ENHANCED BY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE STATE THIS MORNING. WITH
ALMOST ALL THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.57 INCHES AT HILO AND 1.25 AT LIHUE. POCKETS
OF MOISTURE MOVING ALONG THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL FOCUS SCATTERED
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD SLOPES. A FEW OF SHOWERS ARE
IMPACTING THE UPPER LEEWARD SLOPES. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SIDE.

AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL AND TRADE WINDS IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AS A FRONT...CURRENTLY LESS THAN 250 MILES
NORTH OF KAUAI...MOVES IN AND STALLS OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS.
MODELS SHOW THE FRONT STALLING OVER KAUAI AND OAHU THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SCATTERING THE MOISTURE FROM THE DISSIPATED FRONT ACROSS
THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI AND MAUI ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

TRADE WINDS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
MENTIONED STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR TO THE NORTH EDGES
CLOSER TO THE STATE. THE BREEZY WINDS WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF
SHOWERS ON WINDWARD SLOPES LIKELY BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KAUAI...LATE THURSDAY FOR OAHU...AND THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MAUI
COUNTY. LEEWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS SHOULD SEE BIT A
RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM TOO.

IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND WINDS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY
AS WELL. AS A RESULT...HEAVY SHOWER WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST
ALONG THE FRONT FOR WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE EXPECTED ENHANCEMENT OF
THESE SHOWERS BY THIS FEATURE. WITH RIDGING AT 700 MB AND BELOW
DRIVING A RATHER STRONG EASTERLY FLOW...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW TO BE WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS TIME. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PINCH OFF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS ON FRIDAY...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...TRADES WILL BACK OFF A NOTCH AS MOISTURE
FROM THE STALLED AND DISSIPATED FRONT GRADUALLY CLEARS. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...LEADING
TO A DROP IN TRADE WINDS BACK TO MODERATE STRENGTH. THE FORECAST
CALLS FOR SHOWERS TO TREND DOWN ON SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO A
TYPICAL TRADE WIND RAINFALL PATTERN BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS
SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAME OLD FRONT
MOVING ONTO WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AND DRIFTING UP THE ISLAND CHAIN
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY OF THIS SCENARIO
VERIFYING...THIS SOLUTION IS BEING DISCOUNTED FOR NOW. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE ISLANDS WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT...BUT IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ISLANDS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THE FEATURE WILL REACH THE STATE.


&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL BE DUE NORTH
THURSDAY. THUS NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY BECOMING MORE EAST NORTHEAST
THURSDAY. TRADE WIND CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD
SECTIONS WITH OCCASIONAL VFR CONDITIONS. THE STRONG WINDS WILL
CARRY MUCH OF THE CLOUDS AND LESSER SHOWERS OVER ONTO THE LEE SIDES
OF THE ISLANDS AT TIMES BUT BASES WILL TEND TO BE HIGHER THUS
REMAINING MOSTLY VFR OVER THOSE AREAS.

WITH THE TRADES INCREASING...WILL LIKELY ISSUE A LOW LEVEL TURB
AIRMET FOR AREAS OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE NEAR
FUTURE.


&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. THESE AREAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN UNDER AN SCA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ADDITIONAL
AREAS MAY BE BE ADDED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS TRADE WINDS AND
SEAS INCREASE DUE TO A STRONG HIGH BUILDING NORTH OF THE STATE.

SHORT-PERIOD NORTH SWELL WILL BUILD ON TODAY AND THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY A LONGER-PERIOD PULSE FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY. ADVISORY
LEVEL SURF IS NOT EXPECTED FOR NORTH FACING SHORES...BUT EAST SHORES
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE NORTH SWELL AND SHORT-PERIOD
SEAS GENERATED BY STRONG TRADE WINDS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...FUJII






000
FXHW60 PHFO 291324
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BREEZY AND GUSTY
TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES FAR NORTH OF THE STATE. TRADE WINDS WILL DECREASE A NOTCH
DURING THE WEEKEND AS LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE DISSIPATED FRONT
CLEARS THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND A TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA RAINFALL
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ABOUT 1500 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL
HELP TO KEEP TRADE WINDS AROUND CURRENT STRENGTH INTO TONIGHT.
POCKETS OF MOISTURE MOVING ALONG THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO FOCUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD SLOPES. ONE SUCH AREA WILL
REMAIN HUNG UP ON WINDWARD BIG ISLAND THIS MORNING WHILE A SMALLER
AREA AFFECTS OAHU.

AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL AND TRADE WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS A FRONT...CURRENTLY LESS THAN 250 MILES NORTH OF KAUAI...
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
TIMING REMAIN...BUT BASED HEAVILY ON THE GFS SOLUTION...THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI THURSDAY MORNING...OAHU BY EVENING...AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS MAUI BY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING AND
WEAKENING ON FRIDAY. THE BULK OF SHOWERS WILL FALL ON WINDWARD
SLOPES...THOUGH BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL PERIODICALLY CARRY SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AREAS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING OVER THE REGION AS THE FRONT PASSES
OVER THE ISLANDS...AND WITH THIS IN MIND...HEAVY SHOWER WORDING HAS
BEEN ADDED ALONG THE FRONT FOR WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH RIDGING AT 700 MB AND
BELOW DRIVING A RATHER STRONG EASTERLY FLOW...CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW TO BE WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS
TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PINCH OFF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS ON FRIDAY...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...TRADES WILL BACK OFF A NOTCH AS MOISTURE
FROM THE STALLED AND DISSIPATED FRONT GRADUALLY CLEARS. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...LEADING
TO A DROP IN TRADE WINDS BACK TO MODERATE STRENGTH. THE FORECAST
CALLS FOR SHOWERS TO TREND DOWN ON SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO A
TYPICAL TRADE WIND RAINFALL PATTERN BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS
SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAME OLD FRONT
MOVING ONTO WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AND DRIFTING UP THE ISLAND CHAIN
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY OF THIS SCENARIO
VERIFYING...THIS SOLUTION IS BEING DISCOUNTED FOR NOW. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE ISLANDS WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT...BUT IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ISLANDS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THE FEATURE WILL REACH THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD BIG ISLAND PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF
AIRMET SIERRA LAST NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY STAY POSTED INTO THE
MORNING. THUS FAR BKN TO OVC CIGS OVER THE SMALLER HAVE REMAINED
ELEVATED AND THERE ARE NO AIRMETS POSTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF
LOWER CIGS AND SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS... AIRMET SIERRA IS NOT UNLIKELY. THE SWATH OF MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL START TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE TODAY AND ARE
EXPECTED TO FURTHER INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A HIGH FAR
TO THE NW MOVES SE AND A FRONT PUSHES SOUTH TOWARDS THE ISLANDS.
AIRMET TANGO MAY BE ISSUED AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON FOR TEMPO MOD
TURB.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. THESE AREAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN UNDER AN SCA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ADDITIONAL
AREAS MAY BE BE ADDED LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS TRADE WINDS AND
SEAS INCREASE BEHIND A FRONT MOVING DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN.

SHORT-PERIOD NORTH SWELL WILL BUILD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY A LONGER-PERIOD PULSE FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY. ADVISORY
LEVEL SURF IS NOT EXPECTED FOR NORTH FACING SHORES...BUT EAST SHORES
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO ADVISORY LEVELS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE
TO A COMBINATION OF THE NORTH SWELL AND SHORT-PERIOD SEAS GENERATED
BY STRONG TRADE WINDS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...EATON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 290639 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FRONT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
FAR NORTH OF THE STATE. TRADE WINDS WILL DECREASE A NOTCH DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND MOISTURE FROM THE DISSIPATING FRONT MAY MAINTAIN WET
WINDWARD CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND A TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA RAINFALL
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS IS WEAKENING...BUT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ABOUT 1500 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL
HELP TO KEEP TRADE WINDS AROUND CURRENT STRENGTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
POCKETS OF MOISTURE MOVING ALONG THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO FOCUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD SLOPES.

AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL AND TRADE WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS A FRONT...CURRENTLY ABOUT 250 MILES NORTH OF KAUAI...
SLOWLY MOVES DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE BULK OF SHOWERS WILL FALL ON
WINDWARD SLOPES...THOUGH BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PERIODICALLY CARRY SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AREAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING OVER THE REGION AS THE FRONT
PASSES OVER THE ISLANDS...SO SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG
THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME LOW LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO LOWER THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WE WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK
AT THAT TONIGHT.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...TRADES WILL BACK OFF A NOTCH...AND
SOMEWHAT WET CONDITIONS COULD LINGER FOR MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS. THE
FRONT WILL STALL AND FALL APART...LEAVING DIFFUSE MOISTURE IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW. THE STRONG HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO DROP BACK TO MODERATE STRENGTH.
FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS...BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE STRENGTH OF THE FEATURE. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE HAVE MAINTAINED
A RATHER WET TRADE WIND FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. A
SWATH OF MOISTURE MOVING WESTWARD WILL ALLOW FOR ENHANCED SHOWERS
AND PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. IF CONDITIONS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AN AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC MAY BECOME NECESSARY ALONG WINDWARD
AREAS. THIS MOISTURE IS OVER MAUI COUNTY CURRENTLY AND WILL MOVE
WESTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH FAR TO THE NNW
PUSHES EASTWARD. AIRMET TANGO FOR TEMPO MOD TURB WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED AT THAT TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. THESE AREAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN UNDER AN SCA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ADDITIONAL
AREAS MAY BE BE ADDED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS TRADE WINDS AND
SEAS INCREASE BEHIND A FRONT MOVING DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN.

SHORT-PERIOD NORTH SWELL WILL BUILD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY A LONGER-PERIOD PULSE FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY. ADVISORY
LEVEL SURF IS NOT EXPECTED FOR NORTH FACING SHORES...BUT EAST SHORES
COULD BUILD TO ADVISORY LEVELS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE NORTH
SWELL AND SHORT-PERIOD SEAS GENERATED BY STRONG TRADE WINDS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...EATON








000
FXHW60 PHFO 290637
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FRONT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
FAR NORTH OF THE STATE. TRADE WINDS WILL DECREASE A NOTCH DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND MOISTURE FROM THE DISSIPATING FRONT MAY MAINTAIN WET
WINDWARD CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND A TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA RAINFALL
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS IS WEAKENING...BUT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ABOUT 1500 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL
HELP TO KEEP TRADE WINDS AROUND CURRENT STRENGTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
POCKETS OF MOISTURE MOVING ALONG THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO FOCUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD SLOPES.

AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL AND TRADE WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS A FRONT...CURRENTLY ABOUT 250 MILES NORTH OF KAUAI...
SLOWLY MOVES DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE BULK OF SHOWERS WILL FALL ON
WINDWARD SLOPES...THOUGH BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PERIODICALLY CARRY SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AREAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING OVER THE REGION AS THE FRONT
PASSES OVER THE ISLANDS...SO SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG
THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME LOW LEVEL RIDGING LOOK TO BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO LOWER THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WE WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK
AT THAT TONIGHT.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...TRADES WILL BACK OFF A NOTCH...AND
SOMEWHAT WET CONDITIONS COULD LINGER FOR MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS. THE
FRONT WILL STALL AND FALL APART...LEAVING DIFFUSE MOISTURE IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW. THE STRONG HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO DROP BACK TO MODERATE STRENGTH.
FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS...BUT THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE FEATURE. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE
HAVE MAINTAINED A RATHER WET TRADE WIND FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. A
SWATH OF MOISTURE MOVING WESTWARD WILL ALLOW FOR ENHANCED SHOWERS
AND PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. IF CONDITIONS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AN AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC MAY BECOME NECESSARY ALONG WINDWARD
AREAS.
THIS MOISTURE IS OVER MAUI COUNTY CURRENTLY AND WILL MOVE WESTWARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH FAR TO THE NNW
PUSHES EASTWARD. AIRMET TANGO FOR TEMPO MOD TURB WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED AT THAT TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. THESE AREAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN UNDER AN SCA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ADDITIONAL
AREAS MAY BE BE ADDED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS TRADE WINDS AND
SEAS INCREASE BEHIND A FRONT MOVING DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN.

SHORT-PERIOD NORTH SWELL WILL BUILD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY A LONGER-PERIOD PULSE FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY. ADVISORY
LEVEL SURF IS NOT EXPECTED FOR NORTH FACING SHORES...BUT EAST SHORES
COULD BUILD TO ADVISORY LEVELS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE NORTH
SWELL AND SHORT-PERIOD SEAS GENERATED BY STRONG TRADE WINDS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...EATON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 290138
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN TRADE WINDS...WHICH WILL
INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A NEW HIGH BUILDS IN NORTH
OF THE ISLANDS. A FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS WILL BRING
INCREASING SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS STARTING AS EARLY AS TOMORROW
NIGHT. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO
LEEWARD AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THIS MORNING.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS IS
ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN.
AN ASCAT PASS AT 1020 AM HST SHOWED 15 TO 25 KNOTS OF WINDS OVER THE
WATERS FROM THE KAUAI CHANNEL TO SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

A STATIONARY FRONT WAS ANALYZED ABOUT 315 MILES NORTH OF KAUAI THIS
MORNING AT 8 AM...BUT SATELLITE DATA SINCE THEN SHOWS THE CLOUD BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS STARTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD SINCE THEN.
THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SINKS SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN INCREASE IN POPS IS EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE
ISLANDS...WITH THE GRIDS REFLECTING SOME HIGHER POPS AS EARLY AS
TOMORROW NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM WASHES OUT/LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY...LEFT OVER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WET TRADE WIND WEATHER TO THE REGION.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL 500 MB
TEMPERATURES...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.70 INCHES BY
KAUAI AND OAHU THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER 850 MB WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS...WITH SURFACE TRADES REMAINING. WHILE
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE
TRADE WINDS MAY HELP TO PROHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH
CONFIDENCE LOW...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...THE FRONT/SHEARLINE WILL FURTHER
WEAKEN AND THE LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE CONCENTRATED TO
THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL
INCREASE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...AS SHOWERS
INCREASE OVER THE END OF THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND...THE INCREASING
TRADES WILL AT TIMES CARRY THE SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AREAS. THE WET
TRADE WIND WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY.

THE MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FOCUSED ACROSS
WINDWARD SECTIONS...WHERE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A
BAND OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE BIG ISLAND WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL
ENHANCE SHOWERS AND MAKE MVFR CONDITIONS MORE WIDESPREAD. AN AIRMET
FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR WINDWARD SECTIONS
TONIGHT.

RADAR VAD WIND PROFILES AND AFTERNOON ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW GENERALLY
15 KNOTS OF WIND BELOW A STRENGTHENING INVERSION. WHILE WINDS WILL
BE LOCALLY STRONGER IN AREAS FUNNELED BY THE TERRAIN...MODERATE
TURBULENCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AS WINDS INCREASE THIS WEEK...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE FOR TRAPPED LEE WAVES
AND LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE IN THE LEE OF THE ISLANDS. AN AIRMET FOR
MODERATE TURBULENCE MAY BE NEEDED BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE 1020 AM HST ASCAT PASS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...INDICATED SOME 25
KNOT WINDS...SPECIFICALLY OVER THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL. AS TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY INCREASE OVER THE COMING DAYS...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY /SCA/ HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE TYPICAL WINDIER LOCATIONS.
ANTICIPATE THESE AREAS TO REMAIN UNDER SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL AREAS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AS THE WINDS INCREASE
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

A NEW NORTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY...AND A
LARGER NORTH SWELL IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS TRADE WINDS
INCREASE...CHOPPY WIND WAVES COULD LEAD TO HIGH SURF ADVISORY LEVEL
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. BACKGROUND SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL
RECEIVE A BUMP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A 2 FOOT SOUTH SWELL MOVES
THROUGH THE ISLANDS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...BRAVENDER







000
FXHW60 PHFO 290138
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN TRADE WINDS...WHICH WILL
INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A NEW HIGH BUILDS IN NORTH
OF THE ISLANDS. A FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS WILL BRING
INCREASING SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS STARTING AS EARLY AS TOMORROW
NIGHT. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO
LEEWARD AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THIS MORNING.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS IS
ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN.
AN ASCAT PASS AT 1020 AM HST SHOWED 15 TO 25 KNOTS OF WINDS OVER THE
WATERS FROM THE KAUAI CHANNEL TO SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

A STATIONARY FRONT WAS ANALYZED ABOUT 315 MILES NORTH OF KAUAI THIS
MORNING AT 8 AM...BUT SATELLITE DATA SINCE THEN SHOWS THE CLOUD BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS STARTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD SINCE THEN.
THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SINKS SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN INCREASE IN POPS IS EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE
ISLANDS...WITH THE GRIDS REFLECTING SOME HIGHER POPS AS EARLY AS
TOMORROW NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM WASHES OUT/LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY...LEFT OVER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WET TRADE WIND WEATHER TO THE REGION.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL 500 MB
TEMPERATURES...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.70 INCHES BY
KAUAI AND OAHU THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER 850 MB WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS...WITH SURFACE TRADES REMAINING. WHILE
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE
TRADE WINDS MAY HELP TO PROHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH
CONFIDENCE LOW...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...THE FRONT/SHEARLINE WILL FURTHER
WEAKEN AND THE LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE CONCENTRATED TO
THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL
INCREASE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...AS SHOWERS
INCREASE OVER THE END OF THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND...THE INCREASING
TRADES WILL AT TIMES CARRY THE SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AREAS. THE WET
TRADE WIND WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY.

THE MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FOCUSED ACROSS
WINDWARD SECTIONS...WHERE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A
BAND OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE BIG ISLAND WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL
ENHANCE SHOWERS AND MAKE MVFR CONDITIONS MORE WIDESPREAD. AN AIRMET
FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR WINDWARD SECTIONS
TONIGHT.

RADAR VAD WIND PROFILES AND AFTERNOON ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW GENERALLY
15 KNOTS OF WIND BELOW A STRENGTHENING INVERSION. WHILE WINDS WILL
BE LOCALLY STRONGER IN AREAS FUNNELED BY THE TERRAIN...MODERATE
TURBULENCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AS WINDS INCREASE THIS WEEK...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE FOR TRAPPED LEE WAVES
AND LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE IN THE LEE OF THE ISLANDS. AN AIRMET FOR
MODERATE TURBULENCE MAY BE NEEDED BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE 1020 AM HST ASCAT PASS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...INDICATED SOME 25
KNOT WINDS...SPECIFICALLY OVER THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL. AS TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY INCREASE OVER THE COMING DAYS...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY /SCA/ HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE TYPICAL WINDIER LOCATIONS.
ANTICIPATE THESE AREAS TO REMAIN UNDER SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL AREAS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AS THE WINDS INCREASE
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

A NEW NORTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY...AND A
LARGER NORTH SWELL IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS TRADE WINDS
INCREASE...CHOPPY WIND WAVES COULD LEAD TO HIGH SURF ADVISORY LEVEL
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. BACKGROUND SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL
RECEIVE A BUMP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A 2 FOOT SOUTH SWELL MOVES
THROUGH THE ISLANDS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...BRAVENDER







000
FXHW60 PHFO 281939
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO A RIDGE NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS. SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MOSTLY THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS INTO MIDWEEK. AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL INCREASE SHOWER
ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE A STRONG HIGH BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TRADES AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT WILL BRING WET TRADE WIND WEATHER
FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME SHOWERS REACHING LEEWARD AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR TO THE NORTHEAST HAS AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THIS IS BRINGING THE TRADES BACK TO THE
ISLANDS. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ABOUT 315 MILES NORTH OF KAUAI THIS
MORNING...WITH A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
THE ISLANDS...THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS WITH
REGARDS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT OR WEAKEN FURTHER TO A SHEARLINE. IF IT COMES ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AS A WEAK FRONT...WE CAN EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT
NOT SO MUCH IF ITS A SHEARLINE. WHAT THE SYSTEM WILL DO REGARDLESS
IS BRING ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE ISLANDS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

A CHECK OF ALL THE MODELS SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY WORKING INTO THE
ISLANDS WITH THE FRONT/SHEARLINE APPROACHING. THIS IS DUE IN PART TO
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING NEAR THE ISLANDS. THE ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING 500 MB
TEMPERATURES OF -10 CELSIUS...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS -8. THE GFS 500
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WITHIN NORMAL FOR OCTOBER/NOVEMBER...WHILE
THE ECMWF STARTS TO STRAY OUTSIDE OF NORMAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES GET UP TO 1.7 OR 1.8 INCHES. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE
STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS. WILL BE WATCHING FUTURE RUNS TO SEE IF
THE WINDS WEAKEN OR TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...EITHER OF THESE COULD
ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...THE FRONT/SHEARLINE WILL FURTHER
WEAKEN AND THE LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE CONCENTRATED TO
THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL
INCREASE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...AS SHOWERS
INCREASE OVER THE END OF THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND...THE INCREASING
TRADES WILL AT TIMES CARRY THE SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AREAS. THE WET
TRADE WIND WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY.

THE MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FOCUSED ACROSS
WINDWARD SECTIONS...WHERE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A
BAND OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE BIG ISLAND WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL
ENHANCE SHOWERS AND MAKE MVFR CONDITIONS MORE WIDESPREAD. AN AIRMET
FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR WINDWARD SECTIONS BY THIS
EVENING.

RADAR VAD WIND PROFILES AND MORNING ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 15
KNOTS OF WIND BELOW A WEAK/ELEVATED INVERSION. WHILE WINDS WILL BE
LOCALLY STRONGER IN AREAS FUNNELED BY THE TERRAIN...MODERATE
TURBULENCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AS WINDS INCREASE THIS WEEK...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE FOR TRAPPED LEE WAVES
AND LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE IN THE LEE OF THE ISLANDS. AN AIRMET FOR
MODERATE TURBULENCE MAY BE NEEDED BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
/SCA/ THRESHOLDS INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY BRINGING SCA CONDITIONS TO THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS
AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SMALL NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LARGER
NORTH SWELL IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS SWELL COMBINED
WITH AN INCREASING TRADE WIND SWELL WILL LIKELY BRING ADVISORY
LEVEL SURF TO EAST FACING SHORES. BACKGROUND SOUTHERLY SWELLS
WILL RECEIVE A BUMP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A 2 FOOT SOUTH SWELL
MOVES THROUGH THE ISLANDS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...BRAVENDER








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