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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250202
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1002 PM AST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTED THIS EVENING OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO. DOPPLER RADAR ALSO
DETECTED LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGION NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED
AS THE REGION CONTINUED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
REGION UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
WILL MAINTAIN VERY DRY CONDITIONS AT MID TO UPPER LEVELS...RESULTING
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE RIDGE REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. THE RIDGE
WILL ERODE BY TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES TO THE
REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TUESDAY AND THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. BRIEF
MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 25/17Z AND 25/20Z AT JMZ/JBQ
IN SHRA. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BECOMING ESE AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 25/15Z.

&&

.MARINE...NOT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS REASONING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM AST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ERODING GRADUALLY DUE TO A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY...BECOMING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
SHEARLINE APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA...STAYING TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF PUERTO RICO BY WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
WITH MORNING SHOWERS AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS AND EASTERN
PR...THEN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL...WESTERN INTERIOR...WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PR IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE ONLY BRIEF SHOWERS REMAINED ELSEWHERE IN PR.
THE USVI REMAINED FAIRLY DRY TODAY WITH ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THIS WAS DUE TO A PATCH OF MOISTURE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA...COMBINED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND PRODUCED THESE SHOWERS.
THERE IS A STRONG MID TO UPPER RIDGE CAUSING SUBSIDENCE SO THE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WERE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH IS WHAT WE HAVE OBSERVED TODAY. AFTER THIS
PATCH OF MOISTURE PASSES...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.3 INCHES OR LESS FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY AS A SHEARLINE
CLOSES IN. HOWEVER THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEARLINE
WILL STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK EVEN AFTER THE
COLD FRONT AND SHEARLINE DISSIPATES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE NOW DOES
NOT FORECAST A FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL DURG PRD. FEW CLDS W PASSING ISOL
SHRA BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS. SCT CLD LYRS BTW FL020...FL080...CLR
ABV. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS FCST. SFC WND LGT/VRB...L/LVL
WND FM ESE 5-15 KTS BLO FL100...THEN BACKING BCM FM NE-NW INCR W/HT.
MAX WND ARND 55 KTS NR FL400.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  87  74  88 /  20  10  10  10
STT  74  84  73  84 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/72







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250202
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1002 PM AST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTED THIS EVENING OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO. DOPPLER RADAR ALSO
DETECTED LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGION NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED
AS THE REGION CONTINUED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
REGION UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
WILL MAINTAIN VERY DRY CONDITIONS AT MID TO UPPER LEVELS...RESULTING
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE RIDGE REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. THE RIDGE
WILL ERODE BY TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES TO THE
REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TUESDAY AND THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. BRIEF
MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 25/17Z AND 25/20Z AT JMZ/JBQ
IN SHRA. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BECOMING ESE AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 25/15Z.

&&

.MARINE...NOT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS REASONING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM AST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ERODING GRADUALLY DUE TO A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY...BECOMING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
SHEARLINE APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA...STAYING TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF PUERTO RICO BY WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
WITH MORNING SHOWERS AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS AND EASTERN
PR...THEN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL...WESTERN INTERIOR...WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PR IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE ONLY BRIEF SHOWERS REMAINED ELSEWHERE IN PR.
THE USVI REMAINED FAIRLY DRY TODAY WITH ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THIS WAS DUE TO A PATCH OF MOISTURE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA...COMBINED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND PRODUCED THESE SHOWERS.
THERE IS A STRONG MID TO UPPER RIDGE CAUSING SUBSIDENCE SO THE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WERE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH IS WHAT WE HAVE OBSERVED TODAY. AFTER THIS
PATCH OF MOISTURE PASSES...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.3 INCHES OR LESS FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY AS A SHEARLINE
CLOSES IN. HOWEVER THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEARLINE
WILL STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK EVEN AFTER THE
COLD FRONT AND SHEARLINE DISSIPATES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE NOW DOES
NOT FORECAST A FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL DURG PRD. FEW CLDS W PASSING ISOL
SHRA BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS. SCT CLD LYRS BTW FL020...FL080...CLR
ABV. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS FCST. SFC WND LGT/VRB...L/LVL
WND FM ESE 5-15 KTS BLO FL100...THEN BACKING BCM FM NE-NW INCR W/HT.
MAX WND ARND 55 KTS NR FL400.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  87  74  88 /  20  10  10  10
STT  74  84  73  84 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/72








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250202
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1002 PM AST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTED THIS EVENING OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO. DOPPLER RADAR ALSO
DETECTED LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGION NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED
AS THE REGION CONTINUED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
REGION UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
WILL MAINTAIN VERY DRY CONDITIONS AT MID TO UPPER LEVELS...RESULTING
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE RIDGE REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. THE RIDGE
WILL ERODE BY TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES TO THE
REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TUESDAY AND THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. BRIEF
MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 25/17Z AND 25/20Z AT JMZ/JBQ
IN SHRA. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BECOMING ESE AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 25/15Z.

&&

.MARINE...NOT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS REASONING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM AST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ERODING GRADUALLY DUE TO A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY...BECOMING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
SHEARLINE APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA...STAYING TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF PUERTO RICO BY WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
WITH MORNING SHOWERS AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS AND EASTERN
PR...THEN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL...WESTERN INTERIOR...WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PR IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE ONLY BRIEF SHOWERS REMAINED ELSEWHERE IN PR.
THE USVI REMAINED FAIRLY DRY TODAY WITH ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THIS WAS DUE TO A PATCH OF MOISTURE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA...COMBINED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND PRODUCED THESE SHOWERS.
THERE IS A STRONG MID TO UPPER RIDGE CAUSING SUBSIDENCE SO THE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WERE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH IS WHAT WE HAVE OBSERVED TODAY. AFTER THIS
PATCH OF MOISTURE PASSES...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.3 INCHES OR LESS FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY AS A SHEARLINE
CLOSES IN. HOWEVER THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEARLINE
WILL STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK EVEN AFTER THE
COLD FRONT AND SHEARLINE DISSIPATES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE NOW DOES
NOT FORECAST A FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL DURG PRD. FEW CLDS W PASSING ISOL
SHRA BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS. SCT CLD LYRS BTW FL020...FL080...CLR
ABV. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS FCST. SFC WND LGT/VRB...L/LVL
WND FM ESE 5-15 KTS BLO FL100...THEN BACKING BCM FM NE-NW INCR W/HT.
MAX WND ARND 55 KTS NR FL400.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  87  74  88 /  20  10  10  10
STT  74  84  73  84 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/72







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250202
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1002 PM AST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTED THIS EVENING OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO. DOPPLER RADAR ALSO
DETECTED LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGION NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED
AS THE REGION CONTINUED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
REGION UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
WILL MAINTAIN VERY DRY CONDITIONS AT MID TO UPPER LEVELS...RESULTING
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE RIDGE REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. THE RIDGE
WILL ERODE BY TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES TO THE
REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TUESDAY AND THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. BRIEF
MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 25/17Z AND 25/20Z AT JMZ/JBQ
IN SHRA. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BECOMING ESE AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 25/15Z.

&&

.MARINE...NOT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS REASONING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM AST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ERODING GRADUALLY DUE TO A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY...BECOMING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
SHEARLINE APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA...STAYING TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF PUERTO RICO BY WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
WITH MORNING SHOWERS AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS AND EASTERN
PR...THEN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL...WESTERN INTERIOR...WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PR IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE ONLY BRIEF SHOWERS REMAINED ELSEWHERE IN PR.
THE USVI REMAINED FAIRLY DRY TODAY WITH ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THIS WAS DUE TO A PATCH OF MOISTURE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA...COMBINED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND PRODUCED THESE SHOWERS.
THERE IS A STRONG MID TO UPPER RIDGE CAUSING SUBSIDENCE SO THE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WERE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH IS WHAT WE HAVE OBSERVED TODAY. AFTER THIS
PATCH OF MOISTURE PASSES...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.3 INCHES OR LESS FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY AS A SHEARLINE
CLOSES IN. HOWEVER THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEARLINE
WILL STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK EVEN AFTER THE
COLD FRONT AND SHEARLINE DISSIPATES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE NOW DOES
NOT FORECAST A FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL DURG PRD. FEW CLDS W PASSING ISOL
SHRA BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS. SCT CLD LYRS BTW FL020...FL080...CLR
ABV. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS FCST. SFC WND LGT/VRB...L/LVL
WND FM ESE 5-15 KTS BLO FL100...THEN BACKING BCM FM NE-NW INCR W/HT.
MAX WND ARND 55 KTS NR FL400.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  87  74  88 /  20  10  10  10
STT  74  84  73  84 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/72








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 241908
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ERODING GRADUALLY DUE TO A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY...BECOMING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
SHEARLINE APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA...STAYING TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF PUERTO RICO BY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
WITH MORNING SHOWERS AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS AND EASTERN
PR...THEN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL...WESTERN INTERIOR...WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PR IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE ONLY BRIEF SHOWERS REMAINED ELSEWHERE IN PR.
THE USVI REMAINED FAIRLY DRY TODAY WITH ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THIS WAS DUE TO A PATCH OF MOISTURE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA...COMBINED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND PRODUCED THESE SHOWERS.
THERE IS A STRONG MID TO UPPER RIDGE CAUSING SUBSIDENCE SO THE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WERE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH IS WHAT WE HAVE OBSERVED TODAY. AFTER THIS
PATCH OF MOISTURE PASSES...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.3 INCHES OR LESS FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY AS A SHEARLINE
CLOSES IN. HOWEVER THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEARLINE
WILL STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK EVEN AFTER THE
COLD FRONT AND SHEARLINE DISSIPATES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE NOW DOES
NOT FORECAST A FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL DURG PRD. FEW CLDS W PASSING ISOL
SHRA BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS. SCT CLD LYRS BTW FL020...FL080...CLR
ABV. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS FCST. SFC WND LGT/VRB...L/LVL
WND FM ESE 5-15 KTS BLO FL100...THEN BACKING BCM FM NE-NW INCR W/HT.
MAX WND ARND 55 KTS NR FL400.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND ON SUNDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  87  74  88 /  20  10  10  10
STT  74  84  73  84 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 241908
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ERODING GRADUALLY DUE TO A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY...BECOMING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
SHEARLINE APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA...STAYING TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF PUERTO RICO BY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
WITH MORNING SHOWERS AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS AND EASTERN
PR...THEN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL...WESTERN INTERIOR...WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PR IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE ONLY BRIEF SHOWERS REMAINED ELSEWHERE IN PR.
THE USVI REMAINED FAIRLY DRY TODAY WITH ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THIS WAS DUE TO A PATCH OF MOISTURE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA...COMBINED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND PRODUCED THESE SHOWERS.
THERE IS A STRONG MID TO UPPER RIDGE CAUSING SUBSIDENCE SO THE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WERE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH IS WHAT WE HAVE OBSERVED TODAY. AFTER THIS
PATCH OF MOISTURE PASSES...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.3 INCHES OR LESS FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY AS A SHEARLINE
CLOSES IN. HOWEVER THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEARLINE
WILL STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK EVEN AFTER THE
COLD FRONT AND SHEARLINE DISSIPATES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE NOW DOES
NOT FORECAST A FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL DURG PRD. FEW CLDS W PASSING ISOL
SHRA BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS. SCT CLD LYRS BTW FL020...FL080...CLR
ABV. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS FCST. SFC WND LGT/VRB...L/LVL
WND FM ESE 5-15 KTS BLO FL100...THEN BACKING BCM FM NE-NW INCR W/HT.
MAX WND ARND 55 KTS NR FL400.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND ON SUNDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  87  74  88 /  20  10  10  10
STT  74  84  73  84 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 241544
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1144 AM AST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
PATCHES OF SHALLOW LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ACCOMPANYING LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS BETWEEN EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
SOME SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AS WELL AS EASTERN PUERTO RICO.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS OCCURRING IN AND AROUND THE MUNICIPALITIES
OF NAGUABO...LAS PIEDRAS AND JUNCOS. THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AND AFFECT THE SURROUNDING MUNICIPALITIES
FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
THE PREVAILING WIND FLOW...ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS TO
ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND
WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL AFFECT SOME AREAS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD THEN DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER LAND. NO CHANGES MADE TO
THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME...MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS
STILL EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN INCREASING MOISTURE ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...NO CHG TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. VFR CONDS TO
PREVAIL.LATEST TJSJ AND TFFR 24/12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING DATA BOTH
SUGGESTS LAYERS OF SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW FL100 CLR ABV.
FEW TCU EN ROUTE BTW ERN PR AND USVI W/ISOLD PASSING -SHRA/SHRA.
SCT-BKN FL020...SCT-BKN FL060...SCT-BKN FL080. NO SIG OPERATIONAL
WX IMPACTS ATTM.WND FM ESE 5-15 KTS BLO FL100...THEN BACKING AND
BCM FM NE-NW W/HT. MAX WND ARND 60 KTS BTW FL400-FL450.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE AT 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF TODAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM AST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE ERODING EARLY NEXT WEEK. EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED THRU MONDAY BECOMING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A SHEARLINE MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH LOCAL ISLANDS LATE THE UPCOMING
WORKWEEK.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SOME AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE SOUTH...EAST AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TODAY. LATEST COMPUTER
GUIDANCE INDICATED MOISTURE WILL BE AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM 1.4 TO 1.7
INCHES. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN PR AND THEN ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO
IN THE AFTERNOON SINCE THE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE
EAST SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. THEN MOISTURE SHOULD DECREASE FOR
SUNDAY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE LIMITED.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
LOCAL REGION...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. BEFORE THE FRONT...ON TUESDAY...A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE TO THE AREA...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
AS WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...TIST AND
TISX THE REST OF THE MORNING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER NW
PR...RESULTING IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN AND
AROUND TJBQ AND TJSJ BETWEEN 17Z-21Z. IN GENERAL...NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS MOMENT. E TO ESE WINDS OF 5-15 KT
CAN BE EXPECTED BELOW FL150.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  74  87  73 /  40  20  10  10
STT  83  74  84  74 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 241544
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1144 AM AST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
PATCHES OF SHALLOW LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ACCOMPANYING LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS BETWEEN EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
SOME SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AS WELL AS EASTERN PUERTO RICO.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS OCCURRING IN AND AROUND THE MUNICIPALITIES
OF NAGUABO...LAS PIEDRAS AND JUNCOS. THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AND AFFECT THE SURROUNDING MUNICIPALITIES
FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
THE PREVAILING WIND FLOW...ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS TO
ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND
WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL AFFECT SOME AREAS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD THEN DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER LAND. NO CHANGES MADE TO
THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME...MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS
STILL EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN INCREASING MOISTURE ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...NO CHG TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. VFR CONDS TO
PREVAIL.LATEST TJSJ AND TFFR 24/12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING DATA BOTH
SUGGESTS LAYERS OF SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW FL100 CLR ABV.
FEW TCU EN ROUTE BTW ERN PR AND USVI W/ISOLD PASSING -SHRA/SHRA.
SCT-BKN FL020...SCT-BKN FL060...SCT-BKN FL080. NO SIG OPERATIONAL
WX IMPACTS ATTM.WND FM ESE 5-15 KTS BLO FL100...THEN BACKING AND
BCM FM NE-NW W/HT. MAX WND ARND 60 KTS BTW FL400-FL450.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE AT 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF TODAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM AST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE ERODING EARLY NEXT WEEK. EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED THRU MONDAY BECOMING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A SHEARLINE MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH LOCAL ISLANDS LATE THE UPCOMING
WORKWEEK.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SOME AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE SOUTH...EAST AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TODAY. LATEST COMPUTER
GUIDANCE INDICATED MOISTURE WILL BE AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM 1.4 TO 1.7
INCHES. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN PR AND THEN ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO
IN THE AFTERNOON SINCE THE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE
EAST SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. THEN MOISTURE SHOULD DECREASE FOR
SUNDAY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE LIMITED.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
LOCAL REGION...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. BEFORE THE FRONT...ON TUESDAY...A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE TO THE AREA...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
AS WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...TIST AND
TISX THE REST OF THE MORNING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER NW
PR...RESULTING IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN AND
AROUND TJBQ AND TJSJ BETWEEN 17Z-21Z. IN GENERAL...NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS MOMENT. E TO ESE WINDS OF 5-15 KT
CAN BE EXPECTED BELOW FL150.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  74  87  73 /  40  20  10  10
STT  83  74  84  74 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 241544
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1144 AM AST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
PATCHES OF SHALLOW LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ACCOMPANYING LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS BETWEEN EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
SOME SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AS WELL AS EASTERN PUERTO RICO.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS OCCURRING IN AND AROUND THE MUNICIPALITIES
OF NAGUABO...LAS PIEDRAS AND JUNCOS. THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AND AFFECT THE SURROUNDING MUNICIPALITIES
FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
THE PREVAILING WIND FLOW...ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS TO
ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND
WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL AFFECT SOME AREAS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD THEN DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER LAND. NO CHANGES MADE TO
THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME...MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS
STILL EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN INCREASING MOISTURE ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...NO CHG TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. VFR CONDS TO
PREVAIL.LATEST TJSJ AND TFFR 24/12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING DATA BOTH
SUGGESTS LAYERS OF SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW FL100 CLR ABV.
FEW TCU EN ROUTE BTW ERN PR AND USVI W/ISOLD PASSING -SHRA/SHRA.
SCT-BKN FL020...SCT-BKN FL060...SCT-BKN FL080. NO SIG OPERATIONAL
WX IMPACTS ATTM.WND FM ESE 5-15 KTS BLO FL100...THEN BACKING AND
BCM FM NE-NW W/HT. MAX WND ARND 60 KTS BTW FL400-FL450.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE AT 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF TODAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM AST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE ERODING EARLY NEXT WEEK. EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED THRU MONDAY BECOMING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A SHEARLINE MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH LOCAL ISLANDS LATE THE UPCOMING
WORKWEEK.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SOME AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE SOUTH...EAST AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TODAY. LATEST COMPUTER
GUIDANCE INDICATED MOISTURE WILL BE AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM 1.4 TO 1.7
INCHES. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN PR AND THEN ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO
IN THE AFTERNOON SINCE THE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE
EAST SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. THEN MOISTURE SHOULD DECREASE FOR
SUNDAY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE LIMITED.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
LOCAL REGION...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. BEFORE THE FRONT...ON TUESDAY...A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE TO THE AREA...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
AS WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...TIST AND
TISX THE REST OF THE MORNING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER NW
PR...RESULTING IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN AND
AROUND TJBQ AND TJSJ BETWEEN 17Z-21Z. IN GENERAL...NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS MOMENT. E TO ESE WINDS OF 5-15 KT
CAN BE EXPECTED BELOW FL150.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  74  87  73 /  40  20  10  10
STT  83  74  84  74 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240924
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
524 AM AST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE ERODING EARLY NEXT WEEK. EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED THRU MONDAY BECOMING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A SHEARLINE MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH LOCAL ISLANDS LATE THE UPCOMING
WORKWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SOME AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE SOUTH...EAST AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TODAY. LATEST COMPUTER
GUIDANCE INDICATED MOISTURE WILL BE AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM 1.4 TO 1.7
INCHES. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN PR AND THEN ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO
IN THE AFTERNOON SINCE THE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE
EAST SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. THEN MOISTURE SHOULD DECREASE FOR
SUNDAY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE LIMITED.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
LOCAL REGION...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. BEFORE THE FRONT...ON TUESDAY...A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE TO THE AREA...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
AS WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...TIST AND
TISX THE REST OF THE MORNING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER NW
PR...RESULTING IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN AND
AROUND TJBQ AND TJSJ BETWEEN 17Z-21Z. IN GENERAL...NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS MOMENT. E TO ESE WINDS OF 5-15 KT
CAN BE EXPECTED BELOW FL150.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  74  87  73 /  40  20  20  10
STT  83  74  84  74 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/71










000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240924
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
524 AM AST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE ERODING EARLY NEXT WEEK. EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED THRU MONDAY BECOMING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A SHEARLINE MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH LOCAL ISLANDS LATE THE UPCOMING
WORKWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SOME AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE SOUTH...EAST AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TODAY. LATEST COMPUTER
GUIDANCE INDICATED MOISTURE WILL BE AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM 1.4 TO 1.7
INCHES. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN PR AND THEN ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO
IN THE AFTERNOON SINCE THE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE
EAST SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. THEN MOISTURE SHOULD DECREASE FOR
SUNDAY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE LIMITED.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
LOCAL REGION...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. BEFORE THE FRONT...ON TUESDAY...A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE TO THE AREA...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
AS WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...TIST AND
TISX THE REST OF THE MORNING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER NW
PR...RESULTING IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN AND
AROUND TJBQ AND TJSJ BETWEEN 17Z-21Z. IN GENERAL...NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS MOMENT. E TO ESE WINDS OF 5-15 KT
CAN BE EXPECTED BELOW FL150.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  74  87  73 /  40  20  20  10
STT  83  74  84  74 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/71











000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240924
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
524 AM AST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE ERODING EARLY NEXT WEEK. EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED THRU MONDAY BECOMING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A SHEARLINE MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH LOCAL ISLANDS LATE THE UPCOMING
WORKWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SOME AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE SOUTH...EAST AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TODAY. LATEST COMPUTER
GUIDANCE INDICATED MOISTURE WILL BE AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM 1.4 TO 1.7
INCHES. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN PR AND THEN ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO
IN THE AFTERNOON SINCE THE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE
EAST SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. THEN MOISTURE SHOULD DECREASE FOR
SUNDAY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE LIMITED.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
LOCAL REGION...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. BEFORE THE FRONT...ON TUESDAY...A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE TO THE AREA...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
AS WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...TIST AND
TISX THE REST OF THE MORNING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER NW
PR...RESULTING IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN AND
AROUND TJBQ AND TJSJ BETWEEN 17Z-21Z. IN GENERAL...NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS MOMENT. E TO ESE WINDS OF 5-15 KT
CAN BE EXPECTED BELOW FL150.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  74  87  73 /  40  20  20  10
STT  83  74  84  74 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/71










000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240924
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
524 AM AST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE ERODING EARLY NEXT WEEK. EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED THRU MONDAY BECOMING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A SHEARLINE MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH LOCAL ISLANDS LATE THE UPCOMING
WORKWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SOME AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE SOUTH...EAST AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TODAY. LATEST COMPUTER
GUIDANCE INDICATED MOISTURE WILL BE AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM 1.4 TO 1.7
INCHES. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN PR AND THEN ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO
IN THE AFTERNOON SINCE THE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE
EAST SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. THEN MOISTURE SHOULD DECREASE FOR
SUNDAY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE LIMITED.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
LOCAL REGION...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. BEFORE THE FRONT...ON TUESDAY...A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE TO THE AREA...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
AS WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...TIST AND
TISX THE REST OF THE MORNING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER NW
PR...RESULTING IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN AND
AROUND TJBQ AND TJSJ BETWEEN 17Z-21Z. IN GENERAL...NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS MOMENT. E TO ESE WINDS OF 5-15 KT
CAN BE EXPECTED BELOW FL150.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  74  87  73 /  40  20  20  10
STT  83  74  84  74 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/71











000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240224
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1024 PM AST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE ERODING EARLY NEXT WEEK. EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED THRU MONDAY BECOMING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A SHEARLINE MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH LOCAL ISLANDS LATE THE UPCOMING
WORKWEEK.

AS A RESULT CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN OF
TRADE WIND SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS
FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WEST PUERTO RICO. A
DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS DECREASING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME VICINITY SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...TIST AND TISX. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS MOMENT. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED
A LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 15K FEET...
BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY BUT STILL LIGHT FROM 15-25K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. TRANQUIL MARINE
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM AST FRI JAN 23 2015/

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA TODAY BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...THE LOW LEVEL SURFACE TROUGH AND VORT MAX JUST NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST. THIS IS BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY JUST NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTH COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES. THIS VORT MAX
LOOKED IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE BUT IT WAS MORE CLOUDS THAN RAIN.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR AS WELL AS SOME STREAMING OFF THE USVI AND
EL YUNQUE RAIN-FOREST...HOWEVER THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
NOT ALLOW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED...SOME COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR BRIEF MOMENTS.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOMORROW
SATURDAY AS A PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN PR AND THEN ACROSS NW-PR IN THE AFTERNOON SINCE THE WIND
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. THEN
MOISTURE SHOULD DECREASE FOR SUNDAY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMING
MORE LIMITED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK...SO THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE UPCOMING
WORKWEEK WE SHOULD BE UNDER ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SOME RAINFALL. GUIDANCE HAS HAD SOME TROUBLE WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT AS IT USED TO SAY A FEW DAYS AGO THAT IT
WOULD BE HERE BY WEDNESDAY AND NOW IT TAKES LONGER TO BRING IT
CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA...SO IT IS A BIT EARLY TO BE TOO PRECISE
ABOUT THE TIMING AND THE IMPACT THIS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE IN THE
LOCAL ARE AND WHEN.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLYING AREA ENTIRE PRD. NO
SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACT ATTM. LGT WNDS FM NE 5-10 KTS BLO FL200...
BCMG FM N-NW AND INCR W/HT ABV W/MAX WND AROUND 50 KTS NR FL400.
DEVELOPING SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE AT LEAST VCSH FOR
TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TJPS AND TJMZ. TEMPO MVFR FOR TJSJ AND TJMZ IS
POSSIBLE UNTIL 23/22Z.

MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SEAS 2 TO 4
FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT AND SEAS UP TO 17 KNOTS. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A NORTHWESTERLY
SWELL MAY INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  85  73  87 /  30  30  20  20
STT  74  83  74  84 /  30  30  10  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240224
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1024 PM AST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE ERODING EARLY NEXT WEEK. EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED THRU MONDAY BECOMING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A SHEARLINE MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH LOCAL ISLANDS LATE THE UPCOMING
WORKWEEK.

AS A RESULT CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN OF
TRADE WIND SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS
FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WEST PUERTO RICO. A
DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS DECREASING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME VICINITY SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...TIST AND TISX. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS MOMENT. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED
A LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 15K FEET...
BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY BUT STILL LIGHT FROM 15-25K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. TRANQUIL MARINE
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM AST FRI JAN 23 2015/

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA TODAY BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...THE LOW LEVEL SURFACE TROUGH AND VORT MAX JUST NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST. THIS IS BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY JUST NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTH COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES. THIS VORT MAX
LOOKED IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE BUT IT WAS MORE CLOUDS THAN RAIN.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR AS WELL AS SOME STREAMING OFF THE USVI AND
EL YUNQUE RAIN-FOREST...HOWEVER THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
NOT ALLOW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED...SOME COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR BRIEF MOMENTS.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOMORROW
SATURDAY AS A PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN PR AND THEN ACROSS NW-PR IN THE AFTERNOON SINCE THE WIND
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. THEN
MOISTURE SHOULD DECREASE FOR SUNDAY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMING
MORE LIMITED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK...SO THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE UPCOMING
WORKWEEK WE SHOULD BE UNDER ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SOME RAINFALL. GUIDANCE HAS HAD SOME TROUBLE WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT AS IT USED TO SAY A FEW DAYS AGO THAT IT
WOULD BE HERE BY WEDNESDAY AND NOW IT TAKES LONGER TO BRING IT
CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA...SO IT IS A BIT EARLY TO BE TOO PRECISE
ABOUT THE TIMING AND THE IMPACT THIS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE IN THE
LOCAL ARE AND WHEN.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLYING AREA ENTIRE PRD. NO
SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACT ATTM. LGT WNDS FM NE 5-10 KTS BLO FL200...
BCMG FM N-NW AND INCR W/HT ABV W/MAX WND AROUND 50 KTS NR FL400.
DEVELOPING SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE AT LEAST VCSH FOR
TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TJPS AND TJMZ. TEMPO MVFR FOR TJSJ AND TJMZ IS
POSSIBLE UNTIL 23/22Z.

MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SEAS 2 TO 4
FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT AND SEAS UP TO 17 KNOTS. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A NORTHWESTERLY
SWELL MAY INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  85  73  87 /  30  30  20  20
STT  74  83  74  84 /  30  30  10  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/23







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 231801
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
201 PM AST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA TODAY BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LOW LEVEL SURFACE TROUGH AND VORT MAX JUST NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST. THIS IS BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY JUST NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTH COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES. THIS VORT MAX
LOOKED IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE BUT IT WAS MORE CLOUDS THAN RAIN.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR AS WELL AS SOME STREAMING OFF THE USVI AND
EL YUNQUE RAIN-FOREST...HOWEVER THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
NOT ALLOW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED...SOME COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR BRIEF MOMENTS.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOMORROW
SATURDAY AS A PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN PR AND THEN ACROSS NW-PR IN THE AFTERNOON SINCE THE WIND
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. THEN
MOISTURE SHOULD DECREASE FOR SUNDAY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMING
MORE LIMITED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK...SO THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE UPCOMING
WORKWEEK WE SHOULD BE UNDER ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SOME RAINFALL. GUIDANCE HAS HAD SOME TROUBLE WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT AS IT USED TO SAY A FEW DAYS AGO THAT IT
WOULD BE HERE BY WEDNESDAY AND NOW IT TAKES LONGER TO BRING IT
CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA...SO IT IS A BIT EARLY TO BE TOO PRECISE
ABOUT THE TIMING AND THE IMPACT THIS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE IN THE
LOCAL ARE AND WHEN.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLYING AREA ENTIRE PRD. NO
SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACT ATTM. LGT WNDS FM NE 5-10 KTS BLO FL200...
BCMG FM N-NW AND INCR W/HT ABV W/MAX WND AROUND 50 KTS NR FL400.
DEVELOPING SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE AT LEAST VCSH FOR
TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TJPS AND TJMZ. TEMPO MVFR FOR TJSJ AND TJMZ IS
POSSIBLE UNTIL 23/22Z.


&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SEAS 2 TO 4
FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT AND SEAS UP TO 17 KNOTS. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A NORTHWESTERLY
SWELL MAY INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  85  73  87 /  20  10  20  20
STT  74  83  74  84 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 231801
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
201 PM AST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA TODAY BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LOW LEVEL SURFACE TROUGH AND VORT MAX JUST NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST. THIS IS BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY JUST NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTH COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES. THIS VORT MAX
LOOKED IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE BUT IT WAS MORE CLOUDS THAN RAIN.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR AS WELL AS SOME STREAMING OFF THE USVI AND
EL YUNQUE RAIN-FOREST...HOWEVER THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
NOT ALLOW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED...SOME COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR BRIEF MOMENTS.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOMORROW
SATURDAY AS A PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN PR AND THEN ACROSS NW-PR IN THE AFTERNOON SINCE THE WIND
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. THEN
MOISTURE SHOULD DECREASE FOR SUNDAY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMING
MORE LIMITED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK...SO THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE UPCOMING
WORKWEEK WE SHOULD BE UNDER ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SOME RAINFALL. GUIDANCE HAS HAD SOME TROUBLE WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT AS IT USED TO SAY A FEW DAYS AGO THAT IT
WOULD BE HERE BY WEDNESDAY AND NOW IT TAKES LONGER TO BRING IT
CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA...SO IT IS A BIT EARLY TO BE TOO PRECISE
ABOUT THE TIMING AND THE IMPACT THIS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE IN THE
LOCAL ARE AND WHEN.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLYING AREA ENTIRE PRD. NO
SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACT ATTM. LGT WNDS FM NE 5-10 KTS BLO FL200...
BCMG FM N-NW AND INCR W/HT ABV W/MAX WND AROUND 50 KTS NR FL400.
DEVELOPING SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE AT LEAST VCSH FOR
TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TJPS AND TJMZ. TEMPO MVFR FOR TJSJ AND TJMZ IS
POSSIBLE UNTIL 23/22Z.


&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SEAS 2 TO 4
FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT AND SEAS UP TO 17 KNOTS. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A NORTHWESTERLY
SWELL MAY INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  85  73  87 /  20  10  20  20
STT  74  83  74  84 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 231432
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1032 AM AST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...WEAK LOW LEVEL VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CONTINUED
TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS WAS BRINGING
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND QUICK PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE
NORTH COASTAL AREAS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE VORTICITY CENTER
JUST OFF THE NORTHERN COASTLINE OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING MOVING
QUICKLY WEST SOUTHWEST. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVER LAND ALONG THE NORTH COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO
RICO AS WELL AS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...WHERE SKIES BECAME MOSTLY
SUNNY. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY OVERALL FAIR WEATHER SKIES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...SOME LOCALLY
AND DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LATER IN THE
DAY. ALSO...THE PREVAILING WINDS ARE TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE EAST
SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL IN AND AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. NO CHANGES MADE TO
THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH HAD A FAIRLY
GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRESENT AND EXPECTED SHORT TERM CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLYING AREA ENTIRE PRD. NO
SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACT ATTM. LGT WNDS FM NE 5-10 KTS BLO FL200...
BCMG FM N-NW AND INCR W/HT ABV W/MAX WND AROUND 50 KTS NR FL400.
NO CHG TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM AST FRI JAN 23 2015/

SYNOPSIS..AT UPPER LEVELS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO HELP SUPPORT
TRADE WIND CAP INVERSION AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION WERE BETWEEN HALF TO ONE INCH. SATELLITE IMAGES AND
DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTED A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NORTH OF
THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...MOVING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. THIS SWIRL IS PRODUCING
CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
MOST OF THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE EASTERLY. AS A
RESULT...BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUS MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.

NEXT FEW DAYS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO HELP SUPPORT TRADE WIND CAP
INVERSION AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY
MID NEXT WEEK...THE CHANCES FOR SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AS THIS FEATURE MAINTAINS LOCAL AREA UNDER A RELATIVELY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

AVIATION...SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF NE PR THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS ACROSS TJSJ THROUGH AT
LEAST 10Z. OVERALL...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS WITH VICINITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS OF 5-10 KT CAN
BE EXPECTED BELOW FL150 THE REST OF TODAY.

MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
TODAY. SEAS BETWEEN 3-5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  73  85  73 /  30  20  10  20
STT  84  74  83  74 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 231432
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1032 AM AST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...WEAK LOW LEVEL VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CONTINUED
TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS WAS BRINGING
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND QUICK PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE
NORTH COASTAL AREAS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE VORTICITY CENTER
JUST OFF THE NORTHERN COASTLINE OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING MOVING
QUICKLY WEST SOUTHWEST. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVER LAND ALONG THE NORTH COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO
RICO AS WELL AS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...WHERE SKIES BECAME MOSTLY
SUNNY. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY OVERALL FAIR WEATHER SKIES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...SOME LOCALLY
AND DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LATER IN THE
DAY. ALSO...THE PREVAILING WINDS ARE TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE EAST
SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL IN AND AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. NO CHANGES MADE TO
THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH HAD A FAIRLY
GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRESENT AND EXPECTED SHORT TERM CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLYING AREA ENTIRE PRD. NO
SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACT ATTM. LGT WNDS FM NE 5-10 KTS BLO FL200...
BCMG FM N-NW AND INCR W/HT ABV W/MAX WND AROUND 50 KTS NR FL400.
NO CHG TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM AST FRI JAN 23 2015/

SYNOPSIS..AT UPPER LEVELS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO HELP SUPPORT
TRADE WIND CAP INVERSION AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION WERE BETWEEN HALF TO ONE INCH. SATELLITE IMAGES AND
DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTED A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NORTH OF
THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...MOVING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. THIS SWIRL IS PRODUCING
CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
MOST OF THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE EASTERLY. AS A
RESULT...BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUS MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.

NEXT FEW DAYS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO HELP SUPPORT TRADE WIND CAP
INVERSION AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY
MID NEXT WEEK...THE CHANCES FOR SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AS THIS FEATURE MAINTAINS LOCAL AREA UNDER A RELATIVELY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

AVIATION...SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF NE PR THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS ACROSS TJSJ THROUGH AT
LEAST 10Z. OVERALL...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS WITH VICINITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS OF 5-10 KT CAN
BE EXPECTED BELOW FL150 THE REST OF TODAY.

MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
TODAY. SEAS BETWEEN 3-5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  73  85  73 /  30  20  10  20
STT  84  74  83  74 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230901
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 AM AST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS..AT UPPER LEVELS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO HELP SUPPORT
TRADE WIND CAP INVERSION AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.


.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION WERE BETWEEN HALF TO ONE INCH. SATELITE IMAGES AND
DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTED A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NORTH OF
THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...MOVING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. THIS SWIRL IS PRODUCING
CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
MOST OF THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE EASTERLY. AS A
RESULT...BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUS MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.

NEXT FEW DAYS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO HELP SUPPORT TRADE WIND CAP
INVERSION AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY
MID NEXT WEEK...THE CHANCES FOR SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AS THIS FEATURE MAINTAINS LOCAL AREA UNDER A RELATIVELY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF NE PR THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS ACROSS TJSJ THROUGH AT
LEAST 10Z. OVERALL...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS WITH VICINITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS OF 5-10 KT CAN
BE EXPECTED BELOW FL150 THE REST OF TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
TODAY. SEAS BETWEEN 3-5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  73  85  73 /  40  20  10  20
STT  84  74  83  74 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/71













000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230901
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 AM AST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS..AT UPPER LEVELS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO HELP SUPPORT
TRADE WIND CAP INVERSION AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.


.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION WERE BETWEEN HALF TO ONE INCH. SATELITE IMAGES AND
DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTED A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NORTH OF
THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...MOVING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. THIS SWIRL IS PRODUCING
CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
MOST OF THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE EASTERLY. AS A
RESULT...BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUS MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.

NEXT FEW DAYS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO HELP SUPPORT TRADE WIND CAP
INVERSION AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY
MID NEXT WEEK...THE CHANCES FOR SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AS THIS FEATURE MAINTAINS LOCAL AREA UNDER A RELATIVELY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF NE PR THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS ACROSS TJSJ THROUGH AT
LEAST 10Z. OVERALL...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS WITH VICINITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS OF 5-10 KT CAN
BE EXPECTED BELOW FL150 THE REST OF TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
TODAY. SEAS BETWEEN 3-5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  73  85  73 /  40  20  10  20
STT  84  74  83  74 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/71












000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230203
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1003 PM AST THU JAN 22 2015

.UPDATE...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE FLATTENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS FRIDAY MORNING.
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BECOMING SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SHEARLINE MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THRU SATURDAY. UNDER THIS PATTERN CONTINUE TO EXPECT
TRADE WIND SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS ACROSS WEST PUERTO RICO EACH DAY. AS A DRIER AIR MASS
FILTERS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO FORECAST PACKAGE...
FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS MAY CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT TJSJ OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SHOULD OBSERVE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH VICINITY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. E-NE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10
KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM AST THU JAN 22 2015/

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CREATE
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...THEN BECOME MORE EAST SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ONTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION.IN THE UPPER LEVELS ....MID
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND TO HELP SUPPORT TRADE WIND CAP INVERSION AND UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.

DISCUSSION...PREVAILING TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR ...EAST AND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO
AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF THE CULEBRA AND VIEQUES DURING THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LESSER ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE DAY.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS....LOW LEVEL FLOW INDUCING WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PERIODS OF MAINLY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND
EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD BE MORE EAST SOUTHEAST AND AS A
RESULT EXPECT LIMITED MOISTURE AND A GRADUAL DRYING TREND DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...LOCAL AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
WHERE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR THE MOST PART...
MOSTLY SUNNY AND FAIR WEATHER SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS SO FAR FORECAST TO
ESTABLISH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED POLAR TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARDS ACROSS THE ACROSS THE
WEST ATLANTIC WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THIS SHOULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ONCE
AGAIN TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
MORE TO COME ON THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS ALL WILL DEPEND ON
HOW THIS UNFOLD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AVIATION...SHEA OVER PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE VISHNU THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO MFR CONS POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AND TJPS BEFORE
22/22Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE OCCURRING DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS SHOULD OBSERVE PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS. E-NE WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AT TIPS...GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-15 KNOTS. PASSING
SHEA OVER THE AREA TONIGHT MAY CAUSE VISHNU ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR TAMMUZ WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED.

MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES. FOR THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS EXPECT...WINDS OF 15 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 4
FEET OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  85  74  86 /  30  30  20  10
STT  74  84  74  83 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/23







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230203
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1003 PM AST THU JAN 22 2015

.UPDATE...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE FLATTENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS FRIDAY MORNING.
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BECOMING SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SHEARLINE MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THRU SATURDAY. UNDER THIS PATTERN CONTINUE TO EXPECT
TRADE WIND SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS ACROSS WEST PUERTO RICO EACH DAY. AS A DRIER AIR MASS
FILTERS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO FORECAST PACKAGE...
FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS MAY CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT TJSJ OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SHOULD OBSERVE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH VICINITY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. E-NE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10
KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM AST THU JAN 22 2015/

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CREATE
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...THEN BECOME MORE EAST SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ONTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION.IN THE UPPER LEVELS ....MID
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND TO HELP SUPPORT TRADE WIND CAP INVERSION AND UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.

DISCUSSION...PREVAILING TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR ...EAST AND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO
AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF THE CULEBRA AND VIEQUES DURING THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LESSER ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE DAY.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS....LOW LEVEL FLOW INDUCING WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PERIODS OF MAINLY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND
EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD BE MORE EAST SOUTHEAST AND AS A
RESULT EXPECT LIMITED MOISTURE AND A GRADUAL DRYING TREND DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...LOCAL AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
WHERE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR THE MOST PART...
MOSTLY SUNNY AND FAIR WEATHER SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS SO FAR FORECAST TO
ESTABLISH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED POLAR TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARDS ACROSS THE ACROSS THE
WEST ATLANTIC WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THIS SHOULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ONCE
AGAIN TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
MORE TO COME ON THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS ALL WILL DEPEND ON
HOW THIS UNFOLD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AVIATION...SHEA OVER PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE VISHNU THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO MFR CONS POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AND TJPS BEFORE
22/22Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE OCCURRING DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS SHOULD OBSERVE PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS. E-NE WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AT TIPS...GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-15 KNOTS. PASSING
SHEA OVER THE AREA TONIGHT MAY CAUSE VISHNU ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR TAMMUZ WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED.

MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES. FOR THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS EXPECT...WINDS OF 15 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 4
FEET OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  85  74  86 /  30  30  20  10
STT  74  84  74  83 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 221914
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
314 PM AST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CREATE
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...THEN BECOME MORE EAST SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ONTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION.IN THE UPPER LEVELS ....MID
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND TO HELP SUPPORT TRADE WIND CAP INVERSION AND UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PREVAILING TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR ...EAST AND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO
AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF THE CULEBRA AND VIEQUES DURING THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LESSER ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE DAY.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS....LOW LEVEL FLOW INDUCING WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PERIODS OF MAINLY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND
EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD BE MORE EAST SOUTHEAST AND AS A
RESULT EXPECT LIMITED MOISTURE AND A GRADUAL DRYING TREND DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...LOCAL AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
WHERE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR THE MOST PART...
MOSTLY SUNNY AND FAIR WEATHER SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS SO FAR FORECAST TO
ESTABLISH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED POLAR TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARDS ACROSS THE ACROSS THE
WEST ATLANTIC WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THIS SHOULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ONCE
AGAIN TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
MORE TO COME ON THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS ALL WILL DEPEND ON
HOW THIS UNFOLD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHEA OVER PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE VISHNU THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO MFR CONS POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AND TJPS BEFORE
22/22Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE OCCURRING DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS SHOULD OBSERVE PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS. E-NE WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AT TIPS...GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-15 KNOTS. PASSING
SHEA OVER THE AREA TONIGHT MAY CAUSE VISHNU ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR TAMMUZ WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES. FOR THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS EXPECT...WINDS OF 15 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 4
FEET OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  85  74  86 /  30  30  20  10
STT  74  84  74  83 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/09






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 221914
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
314 PM AST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CREATE
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...THEN BECOME MORE EAST SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ONTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION.IN THE UPPER LEVELS ....MID
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND TO HELP SUPPORT TRADE WIND CAP INVERSION AND UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PREVAILING TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR ...EAST AND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO
AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF THE CULEBRA AND VIEQUES DURING THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LESSER ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE DAY.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS....LOW LEVEL FLOW INDUCING WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PERIODS OF MAINLY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND
EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD BE MORE EAST SOUTHEAST AND AS A
RESULT EXPECT LIMITED MOISTURE AND A GRADUAL DRYING TREND DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...LOCAL AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
WHERE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR THE MOST PART...
MOSTLY SUNNY AND FAIR WEATHER SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS SO FAR FORECAST TO
ESTABLISH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED POLAR TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARDS ACROSS THE ACROSS THE
WEST ATLANTIC WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THIS SHOULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ONCE
AGAIN TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
MORE TO COME ON THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS ALL WILL DEPEND ON
HOW THIS UNFOLD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHEA OVER PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE VISHNU THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO MFR CONS POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AND TJPS BEFORE
22/22Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE OCCURRING DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS SHOULD OBSERVE PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS. E-NE WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AT TIPS...GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-15 KNOTS. PASSING
SHEA OVER THE AREA TONIGHT MAY CAUSE VISHNU ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR TAMMUZ WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES. FOR THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS EXPECT...WINDS OF 15 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 4
FEET OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  85  74  86 /  30  30  20  10
STT  74  84  74  83 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/09







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 221611
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1211 PM AST THU JAN 22 2015

.UPDATE...PERSISTENT SHOWERS HAVE AFFECTED THE NORTH AND EAST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN THE MORNING HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE THAT IS DEVELOPING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH INTO PUERTO RICO. SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS ALSO SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE REST OF THE SECTIONS OF PR.
IT IS EXPECTED FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR THIS AFTERNOON...SO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF PR THIS AFTERNOON. HAVING SAID
THAT...THE 22/12Z SOUNDING INDICATED THAT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
IS LIMITED TO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BUT THE
CONVERGENCE AREA AND THE DIURNAL HEATING IS ENOUGH TO HELP THESE
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AS THEY PASS.


&&


.AVIATION...SHRA AROUND TJSJ EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...CAUSING
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS. TJPS AND TJMZ COULD OBSERVED MVFR
CONDS AFTER 22/16Z AS AFTERNOON SHRA DEVELOPS NEAR THE
TERMINALS...VCSH FOR TJBQ. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS SHOULD
OBSERVE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. E-NE WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-15 KNOTS. MOISTURE
MOVING IN WILL CAUSE PASSING SHRA OVER THE AREA...VCSH EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS BUT PREVAILING VFR.


&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM AST THU JAN 22 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AT LEAST
UNTIL TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...WHEN A POLAR TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
OCEAN. ON THE OTHER HAND..SURFACE TRADE WIND PERTURBATIONS/TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...AND AN EAST NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEKEND WHEN SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

DISCUSSION...
A TRADE WIND EASTERLY PERTURBATION/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COASTAL AREAS OF PR AND USVI
DURING THE MORNING PERIOD. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE SHALLOW DUE TO
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE REGION.

THE GFS IS STILL SUGGESTING A DRYING TREND AFTER THIS
PERTURBATIONS LEAVES THE AREA ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER WET TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR AND U.S.V.I DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WILL CONTINUE...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ISLAND. IN ADDITION...SOUTHEAST WINDS AT LOWER LEVELS WILL CAUSE
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAINLY ON THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

NEXT WEEK A POLAR TROUGH WILL ERODE THE LOCAL RIDGE PATTERN AND A
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE NW ATLC BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY... THEREFORE THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE BY MID WEEK.

AVIATION...MASS OF MOISTURE BRINGING SCT SHRA WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS
TO TJNR AND TJBQ IN ENE FLOW. MTN OBSCURATIONS N AND E PR. SHRA
DVLPG OVR WRN PR AFT 22/16Z WITH BRIEF MVFR TJMZ AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS. LLVL WINDS BLO FL100 ENE 5 TO 15 KNOTS.

MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 5 TO 16 KTS AND SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 5
FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. FOR THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
EXPECT...WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET. BEACH
GOERS SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS DUE TO A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
ALONG MANY OF THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  75  85  73 /  30  30  30  20
STT  84  74  84  72 /  30  40  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/09







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 221611
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1211 PM AST THU JAN 22 2015

.UPDATE...PERSISTENT SHOWERS HAVE AFFECTED THE NORTH AND EAST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN THE MORNING HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE THAT IS DEVELOPING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH INTO PUERTO RICO. SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS ALSO SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE REST OF THE SECTIONS OF PR.
IT IS EXPECTED FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR THIS AFTERNOON...SO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF PR THIS AFTERNOON. HAVING SAID
THAT...THE 22/12Z SOUNDING INDICATED THAT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
IS LIMITED TO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BUT THE
CONVERGENCE AREA AND THE DIURNAL HEATING IS ENOUGH TO HELP THESE
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AS THEY PASS.


&&


.AVIATION...SHRA AROUND TJSJ EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...CAUSING
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS. TJPS AND TJMZ COULD OBSERVED MVFR
CONDS AFTER 22/16Z AS AFTERNOON SHRA DEVELOPS NEAR THE
TERMINALS...VCSH FOR TJBQ. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS SHOULD
OBSERVE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. E-NE WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-15 KNOTS. MOISTURE
MOVING IN WILL CAUSE PASSING SHRA OVER THE AREA...VCSH EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS BUT PREVAILING VFR.


&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM AST THU JAN 22 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AT LEAST
UNTIL TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...WHEN A POLAR TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
OCEAN. ON THE OTHER HAND..SURFACE TRADE WIND PERTURBATIONS/TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...AND AN EAST NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEKEND WHEN SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

DISCUSSION...
A TRADE WIND EASTERLY PERTURBATION/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COASTAL AREAS OF PR AND USVI
DURING THE MORNING PERIOD. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE SHALLOW DUE TO
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE REGION.

THE GFS IS STILL SUGGESTING A DRYING TREND AFTER THIS
PERTURBATIONS LEAVES THE AREA ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER WET TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR AND U.S.V.I DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WILL CONTINUE...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ISLAND. IN ADDITION...SOUTHEAST WINDS AT LOWER LEVELS WILL CAUSE
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAINLY ON THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

NEXT WEEK A POLAR TROUGH WILL ERODE THE LOCAL RIDGE PATTERN AND A
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE NW ATLC BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY... THEREFORE THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE BY MID WEEK.

AVIATION...MASS OF MOISTURE BRINGING SCT SHRA WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS
TO TJNR AND TJBQ IN ENE FLOW. MTN OBSCURATIONS N AND E PR. SHRA
DVLPG OVR WRN PR AFT 22/16Z WITH BRIEF MVFR TJMZ AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS. LLVL WINDS BLO FL100 ENE 5 TO 15 KNOTS.

MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 5 TO 16 KTS AND SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 5
FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. FOR THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
EXPECT...WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET. BEACH
GOERS SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS DUE TO A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
ALONG MANY OF THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  75  85  73 /  30  30  30  20
STT  84  74  84  72 /  30  40  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/09






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 220915
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AT LEAST
UNTIL TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...WHEN A POLAR TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
OCEAN. ON THE OTHER HAND..SURFACE TRADE WIND PERTURBATIONS/TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...AND AN EAST NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEKEND WHEN SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A TRADE WIND EASTERLY PERTURBATION/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COASTAL AREAS OF PR AND USVI
DURING THE MORNING PERIOD. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE SHALLOW DUE TO
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE REGION.

THE GFS IS STILL SUGGESTING A DRYING TREND AFTER THIS
PERTURBATIONS LEAVES THE AREA ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER WET TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR AND U.S.V.I DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WILL CONTINUE...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ISLAND. IN ADDITION...SOUTHEAST WINDS AT LOWER LEVELS WILL CAUSE
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAINLY ON THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

NEXT WEEK A POLAR TROUGH WILL ERODE THE LOCAL RIDGE PATTERN AND A
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE NW ATLC BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY... THEREFORE THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MASS OF MOISTURE BRINGING SCT SHRA WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS
TO TJNR AND TJBQ IN ENE FLOW. MTN OBSCURATIONS N AND E PR. SHRA
DVLPG OVR WRN PR AFT 22/16Z WITH BRIEF MVFR TJMZ AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS. LLVL WINDS BLO FL100 ENE 5 TO 15 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 5 TO 16 KTS AND SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 5
FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. FOR THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
EXPECT...WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET. BEACH
GOERS SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS DUE TO A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
ALONG MANY OF THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  75  85  73 /  30  30  30  20
STT  84  74  84  72 /  30  40  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

12/27







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 220915
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AT LEAST
UNTIL TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...WHEN A POLAR TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
OCEAN. ON THE OTHER HAND..SURFACE TRADE WIND PERTURBATIONS/TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...AND AN EAST NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEKEND WHEN SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A TRADE WIND EASTERLY PERTURBATION/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COASTAL AREAS OF PR AND USVI
DURING THE MORNING PERIOD. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE SHALLOW DUE TO
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE REGION.

THE GFS IS STILL SUGGESTING A DRYING TREND AFTER THIS
PERTURBATIONS LEAVES THE AREA ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER WET TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR AND U.S.V.I DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WILL CONTINUE...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ISLAND. IN ADDITION...SOUTHEAST WINDS AT LOWER LEVELS WILL CAUSE
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAINLY ON THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

NEXT WEEK A POLAR TROUGH WILL ERODE THE LOCAL RIDGE PATTERN AND A
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE NW ATLC BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY... THEREFORE THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MASS OF MOISTURE BRINGING SCT SHRA WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS
TO TJNR AND TJBQ IN ENE FLOW. MTN OBSCURATIONS N AND E PR. SHRA
DVLPG OVR WRN PR AFT 22/16Z WITH BRIEF MVFR TJMZ AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS. LLVL WINDS BLO FL100 ENE 5 TO 15 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 5 TO 16 KTS AND SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 5
FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. FOR THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
EXPECT...WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET. BEACH
GOERS SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS DUE TO A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
ALONG MANY OF THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  75  85  73 /  30  30  30  20
STT  84  74  84  72 /  30  40  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

12/27






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