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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251603
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1203 PM AST SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING AND BY LATE MORNING
SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE NOT SIGNIFICANT. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...STREAMERS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON CREATING SHOWERS AROUND THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW OF THEM REACHING PARTS OF
EASTERN PR. FEW CHANGES MADE TO SHORT TERM GRIDS...POP`S WERE
INCREASED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN PR.


&&


.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN PR
THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
EXPECTED IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 25/17-21Z...ALSO...VCTS
AT TJSJ POSSIBLE. THE 25/12Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW OF 5-14 KT BELOW 5 KFT.


&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOYS ACROSS PR AND USVI ARE INDICATING SEAS OF
2-3 FEET.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM AST SAT OCT 25 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION TROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE PASSED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVING
LITTLE IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER LOCALLY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MOVED OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
ELSEWHERE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED...WITHOUT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
THEREFORE...WARMER THAN NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE WEEKEND MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE...A WETTER PATTERN IS POSSIBLE FOR
NEXT WEEK UNDER THESE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 16 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  93  77  91  77 /  20  20  20  20
STT  89  78  88  79 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/12







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250913
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
513 AM AST SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION TROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE PASSED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVING
LITTLE IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER LOCALLY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MOVED OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
ELSEWHERE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED...WITHOUT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
THEREFORE...WARMER THAN NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE WEEKEND MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE...A WETTER PATTERN IS POSSIBLE FOR
NEXT WEEK UNDER THESE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE OVER NW PR THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 25/17-21Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5-15 KT
WILL PREVAIL BELOW FL200.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 16 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  91  77  89  77 /  20  20  20  20
STT  89  78  88  79 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/71








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250227 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1027 PM AST FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WERE ALSO DETECTED OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO AND ACROSS THE
WATERS BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SO FAR THIS
EVENING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE OF
A TROPICAL PASSING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT...
WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO CAUSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOSTLY
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THUS...ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF
PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOONS. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING
WITH SOME BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND KPK/NCM AND
ISX. AFT 25/16Z SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER NW
PR. THIS MAY CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
AT JBQ THROUGH AT LEAST 25/22Z. ESE LOW LEVEL WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...VERY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS OF 15
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS. SEAS AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHES TO THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM AST FRI OCT 24 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION THROUGH MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY... MAINTAINING A SOMEWHAT FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS
WILL CONTINUE TO PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...AS THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSED THROUGH THE SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BROUGHT SOME OF THE MOISTURE
TO THE LOCAL AREA...CAUSING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
SAN JUAN...AND ONCE THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE LOCAL
EFFECTS...SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PUERTO RICO. THE MOST PERSISTENT SHOWERS REMAINED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR WITH ESTIMATED RAIN TOTALS IN ISOLATED
AREAS OF ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN.

TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY CAUSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. SINCE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DOMINATING...LESS THAN ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOONS.

IN THE LONG TERM...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. IF THE MODELS WERE TO VERIFY...A WETTER PATTERN WILL BE
QUITE POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING SHRA EXPECTED...CAUSING MAINLY VCSH
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH 25/13Z. WINDS MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT ABOUT
10 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...SLIGHTLY INCREASING AFTER 25/12Z AND
A BIT MORE FROM THE ESE WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS DEVELOPING.

MARINE...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  90  76  88 /   0  20  10  20
STT  78  88  79  87 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/72







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250211
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1011 PM AST FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WERE ALSO DETECTED OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO AND ACROSS THE
WATERS BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SO FAR THIS
EVENING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE OF
A TROPICAL PASSING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT...
WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO CAUSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOSTLY
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THUS...ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF
PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOONS. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING
WITH SOME BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND KPK/NCM AND
ISX. AFT 25/16Z SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER NW
PR. THIS MAY CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
AT JBQ THROUGH AT LEAST 25/22Z. ESE LOW LEVEL WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...VERY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS OF 15
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF5 FEET OR LESS. SEAS AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHES TO THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM AST FRI OCT 24 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION THROUGH MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY... MAINTAINING A SOMEWHAT FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS
WILL CONTINUE TO PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...AS THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSED THROUGH THE SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BROUGHT SOME OF THE MOISTURE
TO THE LOCAL AREA...CAUSING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
SAN JUAN...AND ONCE THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE LOCAL
EFFECTS...SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PUERTO RICO. THE MOST PERSISTENT SHOWERS REMAINED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR WITH ESTIMATED RAIN TOTALS IN ISOLATED
AREAS OF ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN.

TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY CAUSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. SINCE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DOMINATING...LESS THAN ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOONS.

IN THE LONG TERM...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. IF THE MODELS WERE TO VERIFY...A WETTER PATTERN WILL BE
QUITE POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING SHRA EXPECTED...CAUSING MAINLY VCSH
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH 25/13Z. WINDS MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT ABOUT
10 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...SLIGHTLY INCREASING AFTER 25/12Z AND
A BIT MORE FROM THE ESE WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS DEVELOPING.

MARINE...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  90  76  88 /   0  20  10  20
STT  78  88  79  87 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/72







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 241859
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION THROUGH MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY... MAINTAINING A SOMEWHAT FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS
WILL CONTINUE TO PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSED THROUGH THE SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BROUGHT SOME OF THE MOISTURE
TO THE LOCAL AREA...CAUSING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
SAN JUAN...AND ONCE THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE LOCAL
EFFECTS...SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PUERTO RICO. THE MOST PERSISTENT SHOWERS REMAINED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR WITH ESTIMATED RAIN TOTALS IN ISOLATED
AREAS OF ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN.


TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY CAUSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. SINCE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DOMINATING...LESS THAN ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOONS.

IN THE LONG TERM...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. IF THE MODELS WERE TO VERIFY...A WETTER PATTERN WILL BE
QUITE POSSIBLE.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING SHRA EXPECTED...CAUSING MAINLY VCSH
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH 25/13Z. WINDS MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT ABOUT
10 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...SLIGHTLY INCREASING AFTER 25/12Z AND
A BIT MORE FROM THE ESE WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS DEVELOPING.


&&

.MARINE...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  90  76  88 /   0  20  10  20
STT  78  88  79  87 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25










000
FXCA62 TJSJ 241423
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1023 AM AST FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST IS BASICALLY ON TRACK WITH EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAILING ACROSS THE
REGION. BY MID-MORNING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT WAS
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST WITH SCATTERED POP`S. OTHERWISE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS CURRENTLY NOTED WITH FORECAST
INDICATING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

60


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM AST FRI OCT 24 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT WILL REMAIN OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...
MAINTAINING A RELATIVE FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL PASS
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE AXIS
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 65 WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVE REMAINED MAINLY SOUTH OF 15 NORTH.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE THE
IMPACT OF THE WAVE WILL BE MINIMAL...UNDER A CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENCE
PATTERN ALOFT. SOME SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS BUT THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS SOUTH OF PR/USVI.

IN GENERAL...FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AND THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE INDUCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH/TUTT
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. FOR MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK...SYNOPTIC
MODELS INDICATE A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LOCAL
REGION. THIS STRONG WAVE WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH...THE TIMING MAY CHANGE
SLIGHTLY...A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED NORTH CENTRAL AND NW PR THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 24/17-21Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ESE LOW LEVEL WINDS AT 5 TO
15 KNOTS CONTINUE BELOW FL200.

MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PULSES OF SMALL
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND PASSAGES FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  76  90  76 /  40   0  20  10
STT  88  79  88  78 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

60/60/





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 241423
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1023 AM AST FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST IS BASICALLY ON TRACK WITH EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAILING ACROSS THE
REGION. BY MID-MORNING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT WAS
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST WITH SCATTERED POP`S. OTHERWISE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS CURRENTLY NOTED WITH FORECAST
INDICATING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

60


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM AST FRI OCT 24 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT WILL REMAIN OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...
MAINTAINING A RELATIVE FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL PASS
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE AXIS
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 65 WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVE REMAINED MAINLY SOUTH OF 15 NORTH.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE THE
IMPACT OF THE WAVE WILL BE MINIMAL...UNDER A CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENCE
PATTERN ALOFT. SOME SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS BUT THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS SOUTH OF PR/USVI.

IN GENERAL...FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AND THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE INDUCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH/TUTT
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. FOR MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK...SYNOPTIC
MODELS INDICATE A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LOCAL
REGION. THIS STRONG WAVE WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH...THE TIMING MAY CHANGE
SLIGHTLY...A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED NORTH CENTRAL AND NW PR THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 24/17-21Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ESE LOW LEVEL WINDS AT 5 TO
15 KNOTS CONTINUE BELOW FL200.

MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PULSES OF SMALL
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND PASSAGES FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  76  90  76 /  40   0  20  10
STT  88  79  88  78 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

60/60/





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 241423
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
223 PM GMT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST IS BASICALLY ON TRACK WITH EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAILING ACROSS THE
REGION. BY MID-MORNING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT WAS
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST WITH SCATTERED POP`S. OTHERWISE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS CURRENTLY NOTED WITH FORECAST
INDICATING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

60


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM AST FRI OCT 24 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT WILL REMAIN OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...
MAINTAINING A RELATIVE FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL PASS
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE AXIS
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 65 WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVE REMAINED MAINLY SOUTH OF 15 NORTH.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE THE
IMPACT OF THE WAVE WILL BE MINIMAL...UNDER A CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENCE
PATTERN ALOFT. SOME SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS BUT THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS SOUTH OF PR/USVI.

IN GENERAL...FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AND THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE INDUCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH/TUTT
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. FOR MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK...SYNOPTIC
MODELS INDICATE A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LOCAL
REGION. THIS STRONG WAVE WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH...THE TIMING MAY CHANGE
SLIGHTLY...A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED NORTH CENTRAL AND NW PR THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 24/17-21Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ESE LOW LEVEL WINDS AT 5 TO
15 KNOTS CONTINUE BELOW FL200.

MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PULSES OF SMALL
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND PASSAGES FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  76  90  76 /  40   0  20  10
STT  88  79  88  78 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

60/60/





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 241423
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
223 PM GMT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST IS BASICALLY ON TRACK WITH EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAILING ACROSS THE
REGION. BY MID-MORNING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT WAS
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST WITH SCATTERED POP`S. OTHERWISE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS CURRENTLY NOTED WITH FORECAST
INDICATING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

60


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM AST FRI OCT 24 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT WILL REMAIN OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...
MAINTAINING A RELATIVE FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL PASS
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE AXIS
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 65 WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVE REMAINED MAINLY SOUTH OF 15 NORTH.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE THE
IMPACT OF THE WAVE WILL BE MINIMAL...UNDER A CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENCE
PATTERN ALOFT. SOME SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS BUT THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS SOUTH OF PR/USVI.

IN GENERAL...FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AND THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE INDUCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH/TUTT
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. FOR MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK...SYNOPTIC
MODELS INDICATE A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LOCAL
REGION. THIS STRONG WAVE WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH...THE TIMING MAY CHANGE
SLIGHTLY...A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED NORTH CENTRAL AND NW PR THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 24/17-21Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ESE LOW LEVEL WINDS AT 5 TO
15 KNOTS CONTINUE BELOW FL200.

MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PULSES OF SMALL
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND PASSAGES FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  76  90  76 /  40   0  20  10
STT  88  79  88  78 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

60/60/





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240947
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
547 AM AST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT WILL REMAIN OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...
MAINTAINING A RELATIVE FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL PASS
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE AXIS
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 65 WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVE REMAINED MAINLY SOUTH OF 15 NORTH.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE THE
IMPACT OF THE WAVE WILL BE MINIMAL...UNDER A CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENCE
PATTERN ALOFT. SOME SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS BUT THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS SOUTH OF PR/USVI.

IN GENERAL...FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AND THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE INDUCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH/TUTT
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. FOR MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK...SYNOPTIC
MODELS INDICATE A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LOCAL
REGION. THIS STRONG WAVE WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH...THE TIMING MAY CHANGE
SLIGHTLY...A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED NORTH CENTRAL AND NW PR THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 24/17-21Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ESE LOW LEVEL WINDS AT 5 TO
15 KNOTS CONTINUE BELOW FL200.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PULSES OF SMALL
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND PASSAGES FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  76  90  76 /  40   0  20  10
STT  88  79  88  78 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

71/11







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240153
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
953 PM AST THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ALSO DETECTED OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
AND ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS SO FAR THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED. FOR THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TOMORROW AND SATURDAY. THEREFORE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WE CAN STILL EXPECT THE REGULAR PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREAS OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IN THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR DURING THE AFTERNOONS. FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...
SOME PASSING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING
IN AND AROUND KPK/ISX/IST AND JSJ. AFT 23/16Z SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. THIS MAY
CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AT JMZ AND JBQ
THROUGH AT LEAST 23/22Z. ESE LOW LEVEL WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS REASONING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM AST THU OCT 23 2014/

SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ALSO...THE
POSITIONING OF THE TUTT ALONG WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS WORKING
TO INDUCE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS SUBSIDENT
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
WELL. TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
WEST AND PASS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY...POSSIBLY CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

DISCUSSION...FAIRLY QUIET IN THE MORNING HOURS...BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY BY MID MORNING. THEN ONE STREAMER DEVELOPED OFF SAINT CROIX
WHILE CLOUDINESS INCREASED A BIT OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT SO FAR NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED...HAVING SAID THAT...WE STILL EXPECT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PR WITH THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINING PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES...ALTHOUGH THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.7
INCHES...UP FROM 1.5 INCHES EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WE CAN STILL EXPECT THE REGULAR PATTERN OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREAS OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. EVEN WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING IN THIS WEEKEND...THE SUBSIDENCE PATTERN BY
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION
SUPPRESSED. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

IN THE LONG RANGE...FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GFS MODEL SHOWS A
PRETTY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SURPASSING 2 INCHES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH IT IS A
BIT FAR OUT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE...THE LOCAL AREA MAY RECEIVE
SOME GOOD RAIN THOSE DAYS IF THE MODELS VERIFY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA THRU
THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS W-NW PR WITH
VCSH/VCTS STILL PSBL OVR WRN PR NR TJMZ AND TJBQ TIL 23/22. CU LINES
MAY DEVELOP OVR WRN PORTIONS OF THE ADJACENT ISLANDS AND STREAM
FURTHER W OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH FEW TCU EN ROUTE BTW LOCAL
ISLANDS. EARLIER TJSJ 23/12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED WND 10-15 KTS
BLO FL150...BECOMING FM NNE AND INCR W/HT ABV FL200.

MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PULSES OF A SMALL
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
AND PASSAGES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  89  76  90 /  40  40   0  20
STT  78  88  79  88 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/72







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240153
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
953 PM AST THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ALSO DETECTED OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
AND ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS SO FAR THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED. FOR THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TOMORROW AND SATURDAY. THEREFORE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WE CAN STILL EXPECT THE REGULAR PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREAS OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IN THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR DURING THE AFTERNOONS. FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...
SOME PASSING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING
IN AND AROUND KPK/ISX/IST AND JSJ. AFT 23/16Z SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. THIS MAY
CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AT JMZ AND JBQ
THROUGH AT LEAST 23/22Z. ESE LOW LEVEL WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS REASONING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM AST THU OCT 23 2014/

SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ALSO...THE
POSITIONING OF THE TUTT ALONG WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS WORKING
TO INDUCE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS SUBSIDENT
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
WELL. TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
WEST AND PASS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY...POSSIBLY CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

DISCUSSION...FAIRLY QUIET IN THE MORNING HOURS...BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY BY MID MORNING. THEN ONE STREAMER DEVELOPED OFF SAINT CROIX
WHILE CLOUDINESS INCREASED A BIT OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT SO FAR NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED...HAVING SAID THAT...WE STILL EXPECT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PR WITH THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINING PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES...ALTHOUGH THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.7
INCHES...UP FROM 1.5 INCHES EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WE CAN STILL EXPECT THE REGULAR PATTERN OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREAS OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. EVEN WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING IN THIS WEEKEND...THE SUBSIDENCE PATTERN BY
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION
SUPPRESSED. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

IN THE LONG RANGE...FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GFS MODEL SHOWS A
PRETTY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SURPASSING 2 INCHES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH IT IS A
BIT FAR OUT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE...THE LOCAL AREA MAY RECEIVE
SOME GOOD RAIN THOSE DAYS IF THE MODELS VERIFY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA THRU
THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS W-NW PR WITH
VCSH/VCTS STILL PSBL OVR WRN PR NR TJMZ AND TJBQ TIL 23/22. CU LINES
MAY DEVELOP OVR WRN PORTIONS OF THE ADJACENT ISLANDS AND STREAM
FURTHER W OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH FEW TCU EN ROUTE BTW LOCAL
ISLANDS. EARLIER TJSJ 23/12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED WND 10-15 KTS
BLO FL150...BECOMING FM NNE AND INCR W/HT ABV FL200.

MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PULSES OF A SMALL
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
AND PASSAGES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  89  76  90 /  40  40   0  20
STT  78  88  79  88 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/72







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 231856
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ALSO...THE
POSITIONING OF THE TUTT ALONG WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS WORKING
TO INDUCE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS SUBSIDENT
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
WELL. TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
WEST AND PASS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY...POSSIBLY CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY QUIET IN THE MORNING HOURS...BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY BY MID MORNING. THEN ONE STREAMER DEVELOPED OFF SAINT CROIX
WHILE CLOUDINESS INCREASED A BIT OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT SO FAR NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED...HAVING SAID THAT...WE STILL EXPECT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PR WITH THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINING PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES...ALTHOUGH THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.7
INCHES...UP FROM 1.5 INCHES EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WE CAN STILL EXPECT THE REGULAR PATTERN OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREAS OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. EVEN WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING IN THIS WEEKEND...THE SUBSIDENCE PATTERN BY
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION
SUPPRESSED. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

IN THE LONG RANGE...FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GFS MODEL SHOWS A
PRETTY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SURPASSING 2 INCHES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH IT IS A
BIT FAR OUT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE...THE LOCAL AREA MAY RECEIVE
SOME GOOD RAIN THOSE DAYS IF THE MODELS VERIFY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA THRU
THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS W-NW PR WITH
VCSH/VCTS STILL PSBL OVR WRN PR NR TJMZ AND TJBQ TIL 23/22. CU LINES
MAY DEVELOP OVR WRN PORTIONS OF THE ADJACENT ISLANDS AND STREAM
FURTHER W OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH FEW TCU EN ROUTE BTW LOCAL
ISLANDS. EARLIER TJSJ 23/12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED WND 10-15 KTS
BLO FL150...BECOMING FM NNE AND INCR W/HT ABV FL200.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PULSES OF A SMALL
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
AND PASSAGES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  89  76  90 /  40  40   0  20
STT  78  88  79  88 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25









000
FXCA62 TJSJ 231856
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ALSO...THE
POSITIONING OF THE TUTT ALONG WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS WORKING
TO INDUCE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS SUBSIDENT
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
WELL. TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
WEST AND PASS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY...POSSIBLY CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY QUIET IN THE MORNING HOURS...BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY BY MID MORNING. THEN ONE STREAMER DEVELOPED OFF SAINT CROIX
WHILE CLOUDINESS INCREASED A BIT OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT SO FAR NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED...HAVING SAID THAT...WE STILL EXPECT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PR WITH THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINING PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES...ALTHOUGH THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.7
INCHES...UP FROM 1.5 INCHES EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WE CAN STILL EXPECT THE REGULAR PATTERN OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREAS OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. EVEN WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING IN THIS WEEKEND...THE SUBSIDENCE PATTERN BY
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION
SUPPRESSED. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

IN THE LONG RANGE...FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GFS MODEL SHOWS A
PRETTY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SURPASSING 2 INCHES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH IT IS A
BIT FAR OUT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE...THE LOCAL AREA MAY RECEIVE
SOME GOOD RAIN THOSE DAYS IF THE MODELS VERIFY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA THRU
THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS W-NW PR WITH
VCSH/VCTS STILL PSBL OVR WRN PR NR TJMZ AND TJBQ TIL 23/22. CU LINES
MAY DEVELOP OVR WRN PORTIONS OF THE ADJACENT ISLANDS AND STREAM
FURTHER W OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH FEW TCU EN ROUTE BTW LOCAL
ISLANDS. EARLIER TJSJ 23/12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED WND 10-15 KTS
BLO FL150...BECOMING FM NNE AND INCR W/HT ABV FL200.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PULSES OF A SMALL
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
AND PASSAGES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  89  76  90 /  40  40   0  20
STT  78  88  79  88 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25









000
FXCA62 TJSJ 231505
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1105 AM AST THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...SKIES BECAME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID MORNING AFTER A FEW
QUICK PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTED PARTS OF THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER SKIES AND NEAR SEASONABLY NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TODAY. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS MAY LEAD
TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE WEST INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES EXPECTED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS IN ISOLATED AREAS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED LEADING
EDGE OF WAVE AXIS NOW ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT
THE MAJORITY OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE TO MOVE SOUTH OF
THE REGION BUT BY LATE EVENING AND ON FRIDAY THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...NO CHG TO PREV AVN DISCUSSION. LATEST TJSJ
UPPER AIR SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST E-NE WNDS OF 10-15 KTS BLO
FL150...THEN BCM FM N AND INCR W/HT ABV FL200.NO SIG OPERATIONAL
WX IMPACTS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS OF 9 TO 15 KNOTS
CONTINUED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE
AND 3 FEET OR LESS OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.NO OTHER CHANGES TO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM AST THU OCT 23 2014/

SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO
INDUCE A SUBSIDENCE PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...ALLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE
LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS.

DISCUSSION....DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE MOST INTENSE RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF VIEQUES ISLAND...WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES BETWEEN 1.0-1.5 INCHES.
MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER
OFF BY MID-MORNING. THE REST OF TODAY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL
WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE
MOISTURE TRAP AT LOW LEVELS...RESULTING IN MAINLY SHALLOW
CONVECTION...IF ANY. THEN...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. MOISTURE WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER LOOKS
LIKE THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS JUST SOUTH OF PR/USVI. IN
ADDITION...UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT GENERATED BY THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL ALSO TEND TO DIMINISH THE IMPACT OF THE WAVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. IN GENERAL...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS PR/USVI THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TO LIKELY LIMIT TO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE VCTS NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 17Z-21Z.
EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 5-15 KT CAN BE EXPECTED BELOW 10K FEET.

MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PULSES OF A SMALL
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
AND PASSAGES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  77  89  76 /  20  40  40   0
STT  88  78  88  79 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230935
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO
INDUCE A SUBSIDENCE PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...ALLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE
LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION....DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE MOST INTENSE RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF VIEQUES ISLAND...WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES BETWEEN 1.0-1.5 INCHES.
MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER
OFF BY MID-MORNING. THE REST OF TODAY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL
WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE
MOISTURE TRAP AT LOW LEVELS...RESULTING IN MAINLY SHALLOW
CONVECTION...IF ANY. THEN...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. MOISTURE WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER LOOKS
LIKE THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS JUST SOUTH OF PR/USVI. IN
ADDITION...UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT GENERATED BY THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL ALSO TEND TO DIMINISH THE IMPACT OF THE WAVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. IN GENERAL...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS PR/USVI THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TO LIKELY LIMIT TO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE VCTS NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 17Z-21Z.
EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 5-15 KT CAN BE EXPECTED BELOW 10K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PULSES OF A SMALL
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
AND PASSAGES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  77  89  76 /  20  40  40   0
STT  88  78  88  79 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

71/11







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230154 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
952 PM AST WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO SHORT TERM GRIDS TO
MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. OVERALL...FORECAST PACKAGE ON TRACK.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN
HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TOMORROW AS THE DRIEST DAY OF THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS. AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND BULK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. A
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PASSING -SHRA OVERNIGHT. POSSIBLE VCTS ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER
23/18Z. TJSJ 23/00Z INDICATED A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND FLOW ALL THE
WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 20K FEET...BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY
AND STRONGER FROM 20-40K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM AST WED OCT 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...A TUTT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND INTO THE MONA PASSAGE.
THE BUILDING RIDGE IS TO CONTINUE BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE WEAKENING. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER TROUGH
IS TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS A TUTT LOW FORMS
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN EAST OF THE LOCAL REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT FURTHER NORTHEAST AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH MOVE EASTWARDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 56W IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE THURSDAY THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

DISCUSSION...LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...MILD SUBSIDENCE AND
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT HAS SO FAR AIDED IN SUPPRESSING
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS. EXPECT INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND SLOT OF DRIER AIR TO BE FILTERED IN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOST FAIR WEATHER
SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS AND DIURNAL CONVECTION
LIMITED TO MAINLY THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
AND SOME OF THE ADJACENT ISLANDS.

THE TROPICAL WAVE AND MAJORITY OF ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE IS STILL
FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AS SUBSIDENCE AND CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT INCREASES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT/SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AS THE WAVE PASSES BUT SO FAR NO
SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS SUGGEST RETURN OF EASTERLY
TRADES WITH TYPICAL PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST INCREASING PWAT VALUES AND BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE. UNTIL THEN...LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH
POSSIBLE VCTS ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ TIL 22/23Z. SFC WINDS PREVAILING
FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS UNTIL 22/23Z...WINDS
DECREASING OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PASSING -SHRA OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  90  76  88 /  10  20  40  40
STT  77  89  78  88 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/23







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230154 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
952 PM AST WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO SHORT TERM GRIDS TO
MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. OVERALL...FORECAST PACKAGE ON TRACK.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN
HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TOMORROW AS THE DRIEST DAY OF THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS. AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND BULK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. A
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PASSING -SHRA OVERNIGHT. POSSIBLE VCTS ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER
23/18Z. TJSJ 23/00Z INDICATED A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND FLOW ALL THE
WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 20K FEET...BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY
AND STRONGER FROM 20-40K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM AST WED OCT 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...A TUTT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND INTO THE MONA PASSAGE.
THE BUILDING RIDGE IS TO CONTINUE BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE WEAKENING. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER TROUGH
IS TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS A TUTT LOW FORMS
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN EAST OF THE LOCAL REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT FURTHER NORTHEAST AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH MOVE EASTWARDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 56W IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE THURSDAY THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

DISCUSSION...LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...MILD SUBSIDENCE AND
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT HAS SO FAR AIDED IN SUPPRESSING
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS. EXPECT INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND SLOT OF DRIER AIR TO BE FILTERED IN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOST FAIR WEATHER
SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS AND DIURNAL CONVECTION
LIMITED TO MAINLY THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
AND SOME OF THE ADJACENT ISLANDS.

THE TROPICAL WAVE AND MAJORITY OF ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE IS STILL
FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AS SUBSIDENCE AND CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT INCREASES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT/SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AS THE WAVE PASSES BUT SO FAR NO
SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS SUGGEST RETURN OF EASTERLY
TRADES WITH TYPICAL PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST INCREASING PWAT VALUES AND BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE. UNTIL THEN...LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH
POSSIBLE VCTS ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ TIL 22/23Z. SFC WINDS PREVAILING
FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS UNTIL 22/23Z...WINDS
DECREASING OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PASSING -SHRA OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  90  76  88 /  10  20  40  40
STT  77  89  78  88 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/23







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230141
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
941 PM AST WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO SHORT TERM GRIDS TO
MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. OVERALL...FORECAST PACKAGE ON TRACK.

A GENERAL FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN
HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TOMORROW AS THE DRIEST DAY OF THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS. AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND BULK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. A
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PASSING -SHRA OVERNIGHT. POSSIBLE VCTS ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER
23/18Z. TJSJ 23/00Z INDICATED A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND FLOW ALL THE
WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 20K FEET...BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY
AND STRONGER FROM 20-40K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM AST WED OCT 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...A TUTT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND INTO THE MONA PASSAGE.
THE BUILDING RIDGE IS TO CONTINUE BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE WEAKENING. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER TROUGH
IS TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS A TUTT LOW FORMS
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN EAST OF THE LOCAL REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT FURTHER NORTHEAST AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH MOVE EASTWARDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 56W IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE THURSDAY THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

DISCUSSION...LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...MILD SUBSIDENCE AND
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT HAS SO FAR AIDED IN SUPPRESSING
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS. EXPECT INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND SLOT OF DRIER AIR TO BE FILTERED IN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOST FAIR WEATHER
SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS AND DIURNAL CONVECTION
LIMITED TO MAINLY THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
AND SOME OF THE ADJACENT ISLANDS.

THE TROPICAL WAVE AND MAJORITY OF ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE IS STILL
FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AS SUBSIDENCE AND CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT INCREASES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT/SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AS THE WAVE PASSES BUT SO FAR NO
SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS SUGGEST RETURN OF EASTERLY
TRADES WITH TYPICAL PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST INCREASING PWAT VALUES AND BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE. UNTIL THEN...LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH
POSSIBLE VCTS ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ TIL 22/23Z. SFC WINDS PREVAILING
FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS UNTIL 22/23Z...WINDS
DECREASING OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PASSING -SHRA OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  90  76  88 /  10  20  40  40
STT  77  89  78  88 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/23







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230141
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
941 PM AST WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO SHORT TERM GRIDS TO
MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. OVERALL...FORECAST PACKAGE ON TRACK.

A GENERAL FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN
HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TOMORROW AS THE DRIEST DAY OF THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS. AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND BULK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. A
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PASSING -SHRA OVERNIGHT. POSSIBLE VCTS ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER
23/18Z. TJSJ 23/00Z INDICATED A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND FLOW ALL THE
WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 20K FEET...BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY
AND STRONGER FROM 20-40K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM AST WED OCT 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...A TUTT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND INTO THE MONA PASSAGE.
THE BUILDING RIDGE IS TO CONTINUE BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE WEAKENING. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER TROUGH
IS TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS A TUTT LOW FORMS
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN EAST OF THE LOCAL REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT FURTHER NORTHEAST AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH MOVE EASTWARDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 56W IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE THURSDAY THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

DISCUSSION...LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...MILD SUBSIDENCE AND
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT HAS SO FAR AIDED IN SUPPRESSING
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS. EXPECT INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND SLOT OF DRIER AIR TO BE FILTERED IN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOST FAIR WEATHER
SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS AND DIURNAL CONVECTION
LIMITED TO MAINLY THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
AND SOME OF THE ADJACENT ISLANDS.

THE TROPICAL WAVE AND MAJORITY OF ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE IS STILL
FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AS SUBSIDENCE AND CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT INCREASES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT/SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AS THE WAVE PASSES BUT SO FAR NO
SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS SUGGEST RETURN OF EASTERLY
TRADES WITH TYPICAL PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST INCREASING PWAT VALUES AND BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE. UNTIL THEN...LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH
POSSIBLE VCTS ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ TIL 22/23Z. SFC WINDS PREVAILING
FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS UNTIL 22/23Z...WINDS
DECREASING OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PASSING -SHRA OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  90  76  88 /  10  20  40  40
STT  77  89  78  88 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/23







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 221924
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
324 PM AST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND INTO THE MONA PASSAGE.
THE BUILDING RIDGE IS TO CONTINUE BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE WEAKENING. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER TROUGH
IS TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS A TUTT LOW FORMS
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN EAST OF THE LOCAL REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT FURTHER NORTHEAST AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH MOVE EASTWARDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 56W IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE THURSDAY THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...MILD SUBSIDENCE AND
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT HAS SO FAR AIDED IN SUPPRESSING
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS. EXPECT INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND SLOT OF DRIER AIR TO BE FILTERED IN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOST FAIR WEATHER
SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS AND DIURNAL CONVECTION
LIMITED TO MAINLY THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
AND SOME OF THE ADJACENT ISLANDS.

THE TROPICAL WAVE AND MAJORITY OF ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE IS STILL
FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AS SUBSIDENCE AND CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT INCREASES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT/SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AS THE WAVE PASSES BUT SO FAR NO
SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS SUGGEST RETURN OF EASTERLY
TRADES WITH TYPICAL PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST INCREASING PWAT VALUES AND BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE. UNTIL THEN...LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH
POSSIBLE VCTS ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ TIL 22/23Z. SFC WINDS PREVAILING
FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS UNTIL 22/23Z...WINDS
DECREASING OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PASSING -SHRA OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  90  76  88 /  10  20  40  40
STT  77  89  78  88 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/09







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