Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 170245
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1045 PM AST WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. UNDER THIS ENE WIND FLOW...EXPECT THE CONTINUED TREND
OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF
THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS
EVENING IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE
MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING FEW PASSING SHOWERS AND BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TKPK AND TNCM AFTER 17/03Z AND
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PR AFTER 17/04Z.

AFTER 17/16Z...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN PR
AND MAY AFFECT TJMZ RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED AN EAST
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 10K FEET...
BECOMING FROM THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
AND GENERATE ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT
SEAS BUILDING 5 TO 7 FEET TOMORROW AND 6 TO 8 FEET BY FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM AST WED APR 16 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THURSDAY THEN HOLD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RIDGE WILL FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SRN STREAM PERTURBATIONS STREAM NORTH OF THE AREA. STRONG WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT.

DISCUSSION...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT TONIGHT THROUGH SAT WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MODELS INDICATE A MOIST SURGE TONIGHT LIKELY
RELATED TO THE STRENGTHENING WINDS AS UPPER LEVELS WILL BE
DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGE. EXPECT A CLOUDY SHOWERY DAY THU. DRYING
INDICATED ON FRI BUT THE STRONG WINDS COULD CARRY CLOUD CLUSTERS
AND BRIEF SHOWERS INLAND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ERODING AS SRN STREAM PERTURBATIONS TRACK EWD FROM THE BAHAMAS INTO
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL SUSTAIN GRADUAL EROSION OF MID
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ENHANCING MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY. BY MID NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND DEEP THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINS SO FAR THIS YEAR.

AVIATION...MVFR CIGS AT JMZ AND JPS THRU 23Z. CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
THU WITH MVFR CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE STRONG CLOSE TO
20 KT AT ALL TAF SITES XCPT AT JMZ WHERE A WEST WIND WILL BLOW
AGAINST THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES.

MARINE...WINDS STRENGTHEN TONIGHT THROUGH SAT WITH ROUGH SEAS
EXPECTED THROUGH SAT. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  85  76  85 /  30  30  40  40
STT  77  85  77  85 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...



VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM AST SUNDAY FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND
     CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES
     AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM AST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

72/23







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 170245
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1045 PM AST WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. UNDER THIS ENE WIND FLOW...EXPECT THE CONTINUED TREND
OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF
THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS
EVENING IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE
MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING FEW PASSING SHOWERS AND BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TKPK AND TNCM AFTER 17/03Z AND
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PR AFTER 17/04Z.

AFTER 17/16Z...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN PR
AND MAY AFFECT TJMZ RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED AN EAST
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 10K FEET...
BECOMING FROM THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
AND GENERATE ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT
SEAS BUILDING 5 TO 7 FEET TOMORROW AND 6 TO 8 FEET BY FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM AST WED APR 16 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THURSDAY THEN HOLD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RIDGE WILL FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SRN STREAM PERTURBATIONS STREAM NORTH OF THE AREA. STRONG WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT.

DISCUSSION...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT TONIGHT THROUGH SAT WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MODELS INDICATE A MOIST SURGE TONIGHT LIKELY
RELATED TO THE STRENGTHENING WINDS AS UPPER LEVELS WILL BE
DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGE. EXPECT A CLOUDY SHOWERY DAY THU. DRYING
INDICATED ON FRI BUT THE STRONG WINDS COULD CARRY CLOUD CLUSTERS
AND BRIEF SHOWERS INLAND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ERODING AS SRN STREAM PERTURBATIONS TRACK EWD FROM THE BAHAMAS INTO
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL SUSTAIN GRADUAL EROSION OF MID
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ENHANCING MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY. BY MID NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND DEEP THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINS SO FAR THIS YEAR.

AVIATION...MVFR CIGS AT JMZ AND JPS THRU 23Z. CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
THU WITH MVFR CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE STRONG CLOSE TO
20 KT AT ALL TAF SITES XCPT AT JMZ WHERE A WEST WIND WILL BLOW
AGAINST THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES.

MARINE...WINDS STRENGTHEN TONIGHT THROUGH SAT WITH ROUGH SEAS
EXPECTED THROUGH SAT. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  85  76  85 /  30  30  40  40
STT  77  85  77  85 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...



VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM AST SUNDAY FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND
     CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES
     AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM AST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

72/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 161901
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THURSDAY THEN HOLD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RIDGE WILL FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SRN STREAM PERTURBATIONS STREAM NORTH OF THE AREA. STRONG WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT.


&&

.DISCUSSION...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT TONIGHT THROUGH SAT WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MODELS INDICATE A MOIST SURGE TONIGHT LIKELY
RELATED TO THE STRENGTHENING WINDS AS UPPER LEVELS WILL BE
DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGE. EXPECT A CLOUDY SHOWERY DAY THU. DRYING
INDICATED ON FRI BUT THE STRONG WINDS COULD CARRY CLOUD CLUSTERS
AND BRIEF SHOWERS INLAND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ERODING AS SRN STREAM PERTURBATIONS TRACK EWD FROM THE BAHAMAS INTO
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL SUSTAIN GRADUAL EROSION OF MID
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ENHANCING MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY. BY MID NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND DEEP THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINS SO FAR THIS YEAR.


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS AT JMZ AND JPS THRU 23Z. CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
THU WITH MVFR CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE STRONG CLOSE TO
20 KT AT ALL TAF SITES XCPT AT JMZ WHERE A WEST WIND WILL BLOW
AGAINST THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS STRENGTHEN TONIGHT THROUGH SAT WITH ROUGH SEAS
EXPECTED THROUGH SAT. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  85  76  85 /  30  30  40  40
STT  77  85  77  85 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.



VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM AST SUNDAY FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND
     CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES
     AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM AST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

09/64








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 161901
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THURSDAY THEN HOLD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RIDGE WILL FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SRN STREAM PERTURBATIONS STREAM NORTH OF THE AREA. STRONG WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT.


&&

.DISCUSSION...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT TONIGHT THROUGH SAT WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MODELS INDICATE A MOIST SURGE TONIGHT LIKELY
RELATED TO THE STRENGTHENING WINDS AS UPPER LEVELS WILL BE
DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGE. EXPECT A CLOUDY SHOWERY DAY THU. DRYING
INDICATED ON FRI BUT THE STRONG WINDS COULD CARRY CLOUD CLUSTERS
AND BRIEF SHOWERS INLAND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ERODING AS SRN STREAM PERTURBATIONS TRACK EWD FROM THE BAHAMAS INTO
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL SUSTAIN GRADUAL EROSION OF MID
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ENHANCING MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY. BY MID NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND DEEP THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINS SO FAR THIS YEAR.


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS AT JMZ AND JPS THRU 23Z. CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
THU WITH MVFR CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE STRONG CLOSE TO
20 KT AT ALL TAF SITES XCPT AT JMZ WHERE A WEST WIND WILL BLOW
AGAINST THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS STRENGTHEN TONIGHT THROUGH SAT WITH ROUGH SEAS
EXPECTED THROUGH SAT. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  85  76  85 /  30  30  40  40
STT  77  85  77  85 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.



VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM AST SUNDAY FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND
     CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES
     AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM AST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

09/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 161509
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1109 AM AST WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...MODEL CONTINUED TO SUGGEST FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE
ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL TIGHTENING THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION AT LEAST TIL THE END OF THE WEEK. LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST PWAT VALUES TO RANGE BETWEEN 1.30-1.60 INCHES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO AID IN DEVELOPMENT LATE EVENING...EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS...AS WELL AS DAYTIME CONVECTION IN SOME AREAS DUE
TO ENHANCEMENT EFFECTS OF LOCAL TERRAIN AND SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST AT THIS TIME...
AS IT HAD MORE THAN SUFFICIENT POPS AND WEATHER FOR TODAY AND THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION.
LATEST TJSJ 16/12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL WINDS BLO
FL100 FM E TO NE AT 10-15 KTS...THEN BACKING AND DCR W/HT BCMG
FM N UP TO FL200...THEN FM NW AND INCR TO MAX WND OF 60 KTS OR SO
NE FL400. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND LOCAL
ASSESSMENT TOOLS ALSO SUGGEST MOD-HIGH RISK OF PSBL FAIR WEATHER
WATERSPOUTS ESPECIALLY EN ROUTE BTW ERN PR AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
ELSEWHERE...FEW-ISOLD PASSING CLDS AND EMBEDDED -SHRA/SHRA EN ROUTE
BTW LOCAL ISLANDS WITH FEW TCU...NO OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST BUOY DATA ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST SEAS OF 5
FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS...NO CHANGE EXPECTED
TODAY. HOWEVER DO EXPECT INCREASING TRADE WINDS BEGINNING LATER
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION AND TIGHTENS THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHOPPY AND HAZARDOUS
SEA CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL WATERS BEGINNING ON
THURSDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM AST WED APR 16 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE
PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL GLIDE
BY ON SUNDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH A WEAK RIDGE MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH. FLOW BECOMES ZONAL DURING THE UP COMING
WEEK AS A MUCH SHARPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD. A TROUGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES WEAKENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE
WORK WEEK BUT RE-STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEEKEND...EDGING SLOWLY
TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AHEAD OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH. MOISTURE INCREASES TODAY AND TOMORROW...DIPS ON
FRIDAY...BUT RECOVERS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO INCREASE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP BEGINNING ON SUNDAY.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS BROUGHT MINIMAL...BUT MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS OF RAIN TO AREAS OF THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO
AND SAINT CROIX. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE TODAY
AND...WITH EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE...ADJUNTAS DID HAVE ONE REPORT OF ALMOST TWO
INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
EVEN THOUGH THEY MAY NOT FALL IN THE SAME PLACES. MOISTURE
INCREASES ON THURSDAY AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AGAIN THEN. MOISTURE DIPS ON FRIDAY AND THE MODEL HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST. FRIDAY
ALSO MARKS THE BEGINNING OF THE TRANSITION TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL BE COMPLETE BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE
MECHANISM BY WHICH MUCH BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT IN. THE
GFS MODEL SOUNDING SHOWS THAT BY WEDNESDAY A VERY MOIST SOUNDING
WILL BE FOUND WITH FEW PORTIONS OF THE SOUNDING LESS THAN 70
PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THIS TRANSITION BEGINNING SUNDAY WILL
USHER IN THE BEGINNING OF MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION AND EXPECT
THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED IN
INTERIOR PUERTO RICO SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE
GALVEZ-DAVIDSON INDEX SUGGESTS THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO DETERMINE IF THIS HEIGHTENED ACTIVITY LEVEL WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
LOCAL FLOODING IN THE AREA...BUT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS NEWLY MOIST
PATTERN WILL BE MONITORED FOR THAT POSSIBILITY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 16/15Z
WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TIST/TISX AND
TNCM/TKPK. AFT 16/15Z...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS W PR
AND MAY AFFECT TJMZ RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. LLVL EAST WINDS OF 10-20 KT BELOW 10 KFT.

MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AT
PRESENT...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON
THURSDAY AS WINDS INCREASE. LATEST WAVE WATCH STILL SUGGESTS 7 TO
8 FOOT SEAS THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT HAS BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY ON THE WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CARIBBEAN. SHOULD
LATER MODELS CONFIRM...THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED. GFS
IS ALSO FORECASTING STRONGER WINDS THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED AND
HENCE IS LIKELY TO ALSO BE FORECASTING EXAGGERATED SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  75  85  75 /  30  50  50  50
STT  84  75  85  76 /  40  50  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 161509
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1109 AM AST WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...MODEL CONTINUED TO SUGGEST FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE
ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL TIGHTENING THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION AT LEAST TIL THE END OF THE WEEK. LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST PWAT VALUES TO RANGE BETWEEN 1.30-1.60 INCHES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO AID IN DEVELOPMENT LATE EVENING...EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS...AS WELL AS DAYTIME CONVECTION IN SOME AREAS DUE
TO ENHANCEMENT EFFECTS OF LOCAL TERRAIN AND SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST AT THIS TIME...
AS IT HAD MORE THAN SUFFICIENT POPS AND WEATHER FOR TODAY AND THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION.
LATEST TJSJ 16/12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL WINDS BLO
FL100 FM E TO NE AT 10-15 KTS...THEN BACKING AND DCR W/HT BCMG
FM N UP TO FL200...THEN FM NW AND INCR TO MAX WND OF 60 KTS OR SO
NE FL400. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND LOCAL
ASSESSMENT TOOLS ALSO SUGGEST MOD-HIGH RISK OF PSBL FAIR WEATHER
WATERSPOUTS ESPECIALLY EN ROUTE BTW ERN PR AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
ELSEWHERE...FEW-ISOLD PASSING CLDS AND EMBEDDED -SHRA/SHRA EN ROUTE
BTW LOCAL ISLANDS WITH FEW TCU...NO OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST BUOY DATA ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST SEAS OF 5
FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS...NO CHANGE EXPECTED
TODAY. HOWEVER DO EXPECT INCREASING TRADE WINDS BEGINNING LATER
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION AND TIGHTENS THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHOPPY AND HAZARDOUS
SEA CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL WATERS BEGINNING ON
THURSDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM AST WED APR 16 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE
PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL GLIDE
BY ON SUNDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH A WEAK RIDGE MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH. FLOW BECOMES ZONAL DURING THE UP COMING
WEEK AS A MUCH SHARPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD. A TROUGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES WEAKENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE
WORK WEEK BUT RE-STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEEKEND...EDGING SLOWLY
TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AHEAD OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH. MOISTURE INCREASES TODAY AND TOMORROW...DIPS ON
FRIDAY...BUT RECOVERS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO INCREASE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP BEGINNING ON SUNDAY.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS BROUGHT MINIMAL...BUT MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS OF RAIN TO AREAS OF THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO
AND SAINT CROIX. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE TODAY
AND...WITH EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE...ADJUNTAS DID HAVE ONE REPORT OF ALMOST TWO
INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
EVEN THOUGH THEY MAY NOT FALL IN THE SAME PLACES. MOISTURE
INCREASES ON THURSDAY AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AGAIN THEN. MOISTURE DIPS ON FRIDAY AND THE MODEL HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST. FRIDAY
ALSO MARKS THE BEGINNING OF THE TRANSITION TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL BE COMPLETE BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE
MECHANISM BY WHICH MUCH BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT IN. THE
GFS MODEL SOUNDING SHOWS THAT BY WEDNESDAY A VERY MOIST SOUNDING
WILL BE FOUND WITH FEW PORTIONS OF THE SOUNDING LESS THAN 70
PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THIS TRANSITION BEGINNING SUNDAY WILL
USHER IN THE BEGINNING OF MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION AND EXPECT
THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED IN
INTERIOR PUERTO RICO SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE
GALVEZ-DAVIDSON INDEX SUGGESTS THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO DETERMINE IF THIS HEIGHTENED ACTIVITY LEVEL WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
LOCAL FLOODING IN THE AREA...BUT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS NEWLY MOIST
PATTERN WILL BE MONITORED FOR THAT POSSIBILITY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 16/15Z
WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TIST/TISX AND
TNCM/TKPK. AFT 16/15Z...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS W PR
AND MAY AFFECT TJMZ RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. LLVL EAST WINDS OF 10-20 KT BELOW 10 KFT.

MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AT
PRESENT...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON
THURSDAY AS WINDS INCREASE. LATEST WAVE WATCH STILL SUGGESTS 7 TO
8 FOOT SEAS THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT HAS BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY ON THE WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CARIBBEAN. SHOULD
LATER MODELS CONFIRM...THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED. GFS
IS ALSO FORECASTING STRONGER WINDS THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED AND
HENCE IS LIKELY TO ALSO BE FORECASTING EXAGGERATED SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  75  85  75 /  30  50  50  50
STT  84  75  85  76 /  40  50  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/64






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 160931
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE
PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL GLIDE
BY ON SUNDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH A WEAK RIDGE MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH. FLOW BECOMES ZONAL DURING THE UP COMING
WEEK AS A MUCH SHARPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD. A TROUGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES WEAKENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE
WORK WEEK BUT RE-STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEEKEND...EDGING SLOWLY
TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AHEAD OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH. MOISTURE INCREASES TODAY AND TOMORROW...DIPS ON
FRIDAY...BUT RECOVERS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO INCREASE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP BEGINNING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS BROUGHT MINIMAL...BUT MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS OF RAIN TO AREAS OF THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO
AND SAINT CROIX. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE TODAY
AND...WITH EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE...ADJUNTAS DID HAVE ONE REPORT OF ALMOST TWO
INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
EVEN THOUGH THEY MAY NOT FALL IN THE SAME PLACES. MOISTURE
INCREASES ON THURSDAY AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AGAIN THEN. MOISTURE DIPS ON FRIDAY AND THE MODEL HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST. FRIDAY
ALSO MARKS THE BEGINNING OF THE TRANSITION TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL BE COMPLETE BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE
MECHANISM BY WHICH MUCH BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT IN. THE
GFS MODEL SOUNDING SHOWS THAT BY WEDNESDAY A VERY MOIST SOUNDING
WILL BE FOUND WITH FEW PORTIONS OF THE SOUNDING LESS THAN 70
PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THIS TRANSITION BEGINNING SUNDAY WILL
USHER IN THE BEGINNING OF MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION AND EXPECT
THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED IN
INTERIOR PUERTO RICO SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE
GALVEZ-DAVIDSON INDEX SUGGESTS THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO DETERMINE IF THIS HEIGHTENED ACTIVITY LEVEL WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
LOCAL FLOODING IN THE AREA...BUT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS NEWLY MOIST
PATTERN WILL BE MONITORED FOR THAT POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 16/15Z
WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TIST/TISX AND
TNCM/TKPK. AFT 16/15Z...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS W PR
AND MAY AFFECT TJMZ RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. LLVL EAST WINDS OF 10-20 KT BELOW 10 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AT
PRESENT...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON
THURSDAY AS WINDS INCREASE. LATEST WAVE WATCH STILL SUGGESTS 7 TO
8 FOOT SEAS THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT HAS BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY ON THE WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CARIBBEAN. SHOULD
LATER MODELS CONFIRM...THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED. GFS
IS ALSO FORECASTING STRONGER WINDS THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED AND
HENCE IS LIKELY TO ALSO BE FORECASTING EXAGGERATED SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  75  85  75 /  30  50  50  50
STT  84  75  85  76 /  30  50  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/12








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 160931
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE
PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL GLIDE
BY ON SUNDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH A WEAK RIDGE MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH. FLOW BECOMES ZONAL DURING THE UP COMING
WEEK AS A MUCH SHARPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD. A TROUGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES WEAKENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE
WORK WEEK BUT RE-STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEEKEND...EDGING SLOWLY
TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AHEAD OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH. MOISTURE INCREASES TODAY AND TOMORROW...DIPS ON
FRIDAY...BUT RECOVERS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO INCREASE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP BEGINNING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS BROUGHT MINIMAL...BUT MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS OF RAIN TO AREAS OF THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO
AND SAINT CROIX. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE TODAY
AND...WITH EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE...ADJUNTAS DID HAVE ONE REPORT OF ALMOST TWO
INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
EVEN THOUGH THEY MAY NOT FALL IN THE SAME PLACES. MOISTURE
INCREASES ON THURSDAY AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AGAIN THEN. MOISTURE DIPS ON FRIDAY AND THE MODEL HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST. FRIDAY
ALSO MARKS THE BEGINNING OF THE TRANSITION TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL BE COMPLETE BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE
MECHANISM BY WHICH MUCH BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT IN. THE
GFS MODEL SOUNDING SHOWS THAT BY WEDNESDAY A VERY MOIST SOUNDING
WILL BE FOUND WITH FEW PORTIONS OF THE SOUNDING LESS THAN 70
PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THIS TRANSITION BEGINNING SUNDAY WILL
USHER IN THE BEGINNING OF MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION AND EXPECT
THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED IN
INTERIOR PUERTO RICO SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE
GALVEZ-DAVIDSON INDEX SUGGESTS THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO DETERMINE IF THIS HEIGHTENED ACTIVITY LEVEL WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
LOCAL FLOODING IN THE AREA...BUT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS NEWLY MOIST
PATTERN WILL BE MONITORED FOR THAT POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 16/15Z
WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TIST/TISX AND
TNCM/TKPK. AFT 16/15Z...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS W PR
AND MAY AFFECT TJMZ RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. LLVL EAST WINDS OF 10-20 KT BELOW 10 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AT
PRESENT...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON
THURSDAY AS WINDS INCREASE. LATEST WAVE WATCH STILL SUGGESTS 7 TO
8 FOOT SEAS THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT HAS BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY ON THE WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CARIBBEAN. SHOULD
LATER MODELS CONFIRM...THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED. GFS
IS ALSO FORECASTING STRONGER WINDS THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED AND
HENCE IS LIKELY TO ALSO BE FORECASTING EXAGGERATED SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  75  85  75 /  30  50  50  50
STT  84  75  85  76 /  30  50  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/12







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 160223
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1023 PM AST TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...AFTERNOON SHOWERS CONTINUED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...AFFECTING
MAINLY PONCE AND VICINITY. AT 1000 PM...MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVE OFFSHORE AND ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT...WITH PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. FORECAST IS
ON TRACK WITH ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 16/15Z WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND JSJ/IST/ISX AND NCM/KPK. AFT 16/15Z...SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS W PR AND MAY AFFECT JMZ RESULTING IN BRIEF
MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. LLVL WINDS OF 10-20 KT WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST BELOW 10K FT.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM AST TUE APR 15 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
RIDGE ALOFT WILL HOLD TO THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THEN...ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC DESTABILIZE OUR
ATMOSPHERE...PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...NO WIDESPREAD
RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

DISCUSSION...STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND GOOD SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL START TO DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...MID-
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH...OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLANDS...NO SYNOPTIC FORCING
WILL BE PRESENT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...
SHALLOW CLOUD CLUSTERS AND TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS
AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A ROUND OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN...A
WETTER AND MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW
NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL FAVOR MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND THE CLOUD AND SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...MVFR CIGS AT JMZ WITH SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR AT ALL
OTHER SITES. LLVL WINDS OF 10-20 KT WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE
EAST BELOW 10K FT.

MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET. WINDS STRENGTHEN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED
FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. THESE STRONG WINDS MAY GENERATE RIP CURRENTS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST FACING COASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  85  75  84 /  20  20  50  50
STT  75  85  76  87 /  30  30  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/71









000
FXCA62 TJSJ 160223
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1023 PM AST TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...AFTERNOON SHOWERS CONTINUED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...AFFECTING
MAINLY PONCE AND VICINITY. AT 1000 PM...MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVE OFFSHORE AND ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT...WITH PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. FORECAST IS
ON TRACK WITH ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 16/15Z WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND JSJ/IST/ISX AND NCM/KPK. AFT 16/15Z...SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS W PR AND MAY AFFECT JMZ RESULTING IN BRIEF
MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. LLVL WINDS OF 10-20 KT WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST BELOW 10K FT.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM AST TUE APR 15 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
RIDGE ALOFT WILL HOLD TO THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THEN...ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC DESTABILIZE OUR
ATMOSPHERE...PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...NO WIDESPREAD
RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

DISCUSSION...STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND GOOD SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL START TO DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...MID-
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH...OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLANDS...NO SYNOPTIC FORCING
WILL BE PRESENT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...
SHALLOW CLOUD CLUSTERS AND TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS
AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A ROUND OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN...A
WETTER AND MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW
NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL FAVOR MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND THE CLOUD AND SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...MVFR CIGS AT JMZ WITH SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR AT ALL
OTHER SITES. LLVL WINDS OF 10-20 KT WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE
EAST BELOW 10K FT.

MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET. WINDS STRENGTHEN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED
FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. THESE STRONG WINDS MAY GENERATE RIP CURRENTS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST FACING COASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  85  75  84 /  20  20  50  50
STT  75  85  76  87 /  30  30  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/71










000
FXCA62 TJSJ 151907
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
RIDGE ALOFT WILL HOLD TO THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THEN...ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC DESTABILIZE OUR
ATMOSPHERE...PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...NO WIDESPREAD
RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND GOOD SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL START TO DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...MID-
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH...OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLANDS...NO SYNOPTIC FORCING
WILL BE PRESENT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...
SHALLOW CLOUD CLUSTERS AND TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS
AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A ROUND OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN...A
WETTER AND MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW
NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL FAVOR MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND THE CLOUD AND SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS AT JMZ WITH SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR AT ALL
OTHER SITES. LLVL WINDS OF 10-20 KT WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE
EAST BELOW 10K FT.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET. WINDS STRENGTHEN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED
FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. THESE STRONG WINDS MAY GENERATE RIP CURRENTS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST FACING COASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  85  75  84 /  20  20  50  50
STT  75  85  76  87 /  30  30  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

64/11








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 151907
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
RIDGE ALOFT WILL HOLD TO THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THEN...ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC DESTABILIZE OUR
ATMOSPHERE...PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...NO WIDESPREAD
RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND GOOD SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL START TO DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...MID-
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH...OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLANDS...NO SYNOPTIC FORCING
WILL BE PRESENT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...
SHALLOW CLOUD CLUSTERS AND TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS
AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A ROUND OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN...A
WETTER AND MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW
NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL FAVOR MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND THE CLOUD AND SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS AT JMZ WITH SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR AT ALL
OTHER SITES. LLVL WINDS OF 10-20 KT WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE
EAST BELOW 10K FT.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET. WINDS STRENGTHEN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED
FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. THESE STRONG WINDS MAY GENERATE RIP CURRENTS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST FACING COASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  85  75  84 /  20  20  50  50
STT  75  85  76  87 /  30  30  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

64/11







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 151452 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1052 AM AST TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH THU AND HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH SUN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING OVR
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...12Z JSJ RAOB AND MORE RECENT
ACARS SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. RECENT VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW CLOUDS THICKENING
SOUTH OF LMM ARPT WITH SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR. EXPECT SCT SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP OVR WRN PR AS SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS.
SIMILAR PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHOW TROF DEEPENING ACROSS THE SW ATLC
WITH MOISTURE DEEPENING ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO BETTER
CHANCES OF RAINFALL.


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS AT JMZ WITH SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR AT ALL
OTHER SITES.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS STRENGTHEN THU AND FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING 6 TO 8 FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  85  75  84  75 /  10  30  30  50
STT  84  75  85  76 /  20  40  40  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

64/64








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 151452 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1052 AM AST TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH THU AND HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH SUN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING OVR
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...12Z JSJ RAOB AND MORE RECENT
ACARS SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. RECENT VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW CLOUDS THICKENING
SOUTH OF LMM ARPT WITH SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR. EXPECT SCT SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP OVR WRN PR AS SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS.
SIMILAR PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHOW TROF DEEPENING ACROSS THE SW ATLC
WITH MOISTURE DEEPENING ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO BETTER
CHANCES OF RAINFALL.


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS AT JMZ WITH SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR AT ALL
OTHER SITES.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS STRENGTHEN THU AND FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING 6 TO 8 FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  85  75  84  75 /  10  30  30  50
STT  84  75  85  76 /  20  40  40  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

64/64









000
FXCA62 TJSJ 150908
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AND A RIDGE...CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY NIGHT IN A MUCH WEAKENED
CONDITION. THE NEXT MINOR TROUGH WILL BE ON SUNDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW SITS ABOUT 560 MILES NORTHEAST
OF SAN JUAN AND WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE EASTWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE WEST BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA
BY THE WEEKEND. A MINOR TROUGH PASSES ON MONDAY MORNING.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS DRIVING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND THESE WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OVER
FLORIDA ON SATURDAY WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WEEKEND BRINGING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW PASSING CLUSTERS OF CLOUDS BROUGHT BRIEF
SHOWERS TO THOSE ON THE EAST AND NORTHEAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT
MOST WERE STILL ABLE TO SEE THE TOTAL ECLIPSE OF THE MOON NOW
LEAVING THE PENUMBRAL SHADOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO RISE...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF BUT DEEP DIP ON FRIDAY WITH
A RECOVERY TO THE ORIGINAL TREND BY MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE DRAMATICALLY...AS A
TROUGH INVADES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE ABLE TO BRING UP A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE. THE GFS IS STILL SHOWING MOISTURE INCREASING TO
ALMOST 1.9 INCHES BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALSO RAISE
HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTH COAST BY TWO TO FOUR DEGREES.
OTHERWISE WE WILL CONTINUE IN THE PATTERN OF OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHEAST AND EAST COASTS AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. RAIN PROBABILITIES AND AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE
A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND THEN
MAKE A SIGNIFICANT MOVE TOWARD WETTER CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT
WEEK. UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY PLAY MINOR ROLES IN
ENHANCING THESE SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND -SHRA OVER TKPK AND TNCM ARE
EXPECTED AT LEAST UNTIL 15/16Z. VFR AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES WITH VCSH
AROUND TIST AND TISX DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BETWEEN 15/15Z-21Z
SHRA WILL CREATE MVFR CIGS AND OBSCD MTN OVER WESTERN PR AFFECTING
TJMZ. EAST WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE AT A MINIMUM FOR THE TIME BEING AND ARE BELOW 5
FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND BELOW 4 FEET IN THE NORTH AND SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY RISE WITH THE WINDS THROUGH 19
APRIL AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 8 FEET BY FRIDAY AND PEAK IN BOTH
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS ON SATURDAY. PERIODS DURING THE
HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE ABOUT 8 TO 9 SECONDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  85  75  84  75 /  10  30  30  50
STT  84  75  85  76 /  20  40  40  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/12







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 150908
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AND A RIDGE...CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY NIGHT IN A MUCH WEAKENED
CONDITION. THE NEXT MINOR TROUGH WILL BE ON SUNDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW SITS ABOUT 560 MILES NORTHEAST
OF SAN JUAN AND WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE EASTWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE WEST BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA
BY THE WEEKEND. A MINOR TROUGH PASSES ON MONDAY MORNING.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS DRIVING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND THESE WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OVER
FLORIDA ON SATURDAY WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WEEKEND BRINGING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW PASSING CLUSTERS OF CLOUDS BROUGHT BRIEF
SHOWERS TO THOSE ON THE EAST AND NORTHEAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT
MOST WERE STILL ABLE TO SEE THE TOTAL ECLIPSE OF THE MOON NOW
LEAVING THE PENUMBRAL SHADOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO RISE...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF BUT DEEP DIP ON FRIDAY WITH
A RECOVERY TO THE ORIGINAL TREND BY MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE DRAMATICALLY...AS A
TROUGH INVADES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE ABLE TO BRING UP A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE. THE GFS IS STILL SHOWING MOISTURE INCREASING TO
ALMOST 1.9 INCHES BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALSO RAISE
HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTH COAST BY TWO TO FOUR DEGREES.
OTHERWISE WE WILL CONTINUE IN THE PATTERN OF OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHEAST AND EAST COASTS AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. RAIN PROBABILITIES AND AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE
A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND THEN
MAKE A SIGNIFICANT MOVE TOWARD WETTER CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT
WEEK. UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY PLAY MINOR ROLES IN
ENHANCING THESE SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND -SHRA OVER TKPK AND TNCM ARE
EXPECTED AT LEAST UNTIL 15/16Z. VFR AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES WITH VCSH
AROUND TIST AND TISX DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BETWEEN 15/15Z-21Z
SHRA WILL CREATE MVFR CIGS AND OBSCD MTN OVER WESTERN PR AFFECTING
TJMZ. EAST WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE AT A MINIMUM FOR THE TIME BEING AND ARE BELOW 5
FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND BELOW 4 FEET IN THE NORTH AND SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY RISE WITH THE WINDS THROUGH 19
APRIL AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 8 FEET BY FRIDAY AND PEAK IN BOTH
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS ON SATURDAY. PERIODS DURING THE
HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE ABOUT 8 TO 9 SECONDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  85  75  84  75 /  10  30  30  50
STT  84  75  85  76 /  20  40  40  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 150256
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1056 PM AST MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION TONIGHT GENERATING ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...THIS WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER COVERAGE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 15/12Z.  LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET. WINDS STRENGTHEN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM AST MON APR 14 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF BERMUDA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS TROUGH
ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL AMPLIFY NORTH
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

DISCUSSION...MOISTURE BELOW NORMAL ABOUT 10-20 PERCENT...HAS
LIMITED THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...MODERATE SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALLOWED SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN PR...PRODUCING SOME TCU CLOUDS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW FROM THE EAST WILL PUSH THESE
SHOWERS INTO THE MONA PASSAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BEFORE SUNSET.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. HOWEVER...OPERATIONAL
MODELS SUGGEST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS... ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEK. SHALLOW CLOUD CLUSTERS AND
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...FOLLOWED
BY A ROUND OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THEN...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE ISLANDS WILL DESTABILIZE
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC
DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL FAVOR MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND THE CLOUD AND SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT TJMZ LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS THRU 21Z. OTHERWISE...VFR AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES. EASTERLY
WINDS OF 10-20 KT EXPECTED BELOW FL120.

MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET. WINDS STRENGTHEN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  85  75  84 /  20  20  30  30
STT  75  86  76  83 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

71/10






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 150256
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1056 PM AST MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION TONIGHT GENERATING ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...THIS WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER COVERAGE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 15/12Z.  LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET. WINDS STRENGTHEN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM AST MON APR 14 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF BERMUDA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS TROUGH
ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL AMPLIFY NORTH
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

DISCUSSION...MOISTURE BELOW NORMAL ABOUT 10-20 PERCENT...HAS
LIMITED THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...MODERATE SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALLOWED SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN PR...PRODUCING SOME TCU CLOUDS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW FROM THE EAST WILL PUSH THESE
SHOWERS INTO THE MONA PASSAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BEFORE SUNSET.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. HOWEVER...OPERATIONAL
MODELS SUGGEST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS... ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEK. SHALLOW CLOUD CLUSTERS AND
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...FOLLOWED
BY A ROUND OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THEN...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE ISLANDS WILL DESTABILIZE
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC
DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL FAVOR MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND THE CLOUD AND SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT TJMZ LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS THRU 21Z. OTHERWISE...VFR AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES. EASTERLY
WINDS OF 10-20 KT EXPECTED BELOW FL120.

MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET. WINDS STRENGTHEN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  85  75  84 /  20  20  30  30
STT  75  86  76  83 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

71/10







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 141858
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF BERMUDA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS TROUGH
ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL AMPLIFY NORTH
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE BELOW NORMAL ABOUT 10-20 PERCENT...HAS
LIMITED THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...MODERATE SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALLOWED SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN PR...PRODUCING SOME TCU CLOUDS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW FROM THE EAST WILL PUSH THESE
SHOWERS INTO THE MONA PASSAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BEFORE SUNSET.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. HOWEVER...OPERATIONAL
MODELS SUGGEST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS... ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEK. SHALLOW CLOUD CLUSTERS AND
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...FOLLOWED
BY A ROUND OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THEN...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE ISLANDS WILL DESTABILIZE
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC
DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL FAVOR MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND THE CLOUD AND SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT TJMZ LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS THRU 21Z. OTHERWISE...VFR AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES. EASTERLY
WINDS OF 10-20 KT EXPECTED BELOW FL120.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET. WINDS STRENGTHEN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  74  85  75 /  30  20  20  30
STT  85  75  86  76 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

64/11







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 141858
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF BERMUDA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS TROUGH
ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL AMPLIFY NORTH
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE BELOW NORMAL ABOUT 10-20 PERCENT...HAS
LIMITED THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...MODERATE SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALLOWED SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN PR...PRODUCING SOME TCU CLOUDS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW FROM THE EAST WILL PUSH THESE
SHOWERS INTO THE MONA PASSAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BEFORE SUNSET.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. HOWEVER...OPERATIONAL
MODELS SUGGEST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS... ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEK. SHALLOW CLOUD CLUSTERS AND
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...FOLLOWED
BY A ROUND OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THEN...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE ISLANDS WILL DESTABILIZE
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC
DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL FAVOR MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND THE CLOUD AND SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT TJMZ LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS THRU 21Z. OTHERWISE...VFR AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES. EASTERLY
WINDS OF 10-20 KT EXPECTED BELOW FL120.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET. WINDS STRENGTHEN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  74  85  75 /  30  20  20  30
STT  85  75  86  76 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

64/11






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 141420 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1020 AM AST MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF 70W WILL AMPLIFY SEWD WITH
AXIS CROSSING PR EARLY TUE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TUE THRU THU.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DESPITE HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT...MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY
MOISTURE INCREASE TODAY. 12Z JSJ RAOB INDICATES A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AROUND 750 MB WITH ONLY MODEST MOISTURE. EXPECT SOME
SCATTERED SHALLOW CONVECTION OVR WRN PR LATER TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TUE THROUGH THU WITH NO SIG MOISTURE
ADVECTION. MOISTURE INCREASES DURING THE WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS FALL
IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS ALSO
STRENGTHEN THU AND FRI GENERATING ROUGH SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS AT KPK THRU 16Z AND AT JMZ LATER TODAY WITH
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL SEAS THROUGH WED. WINDS STRENGTHEN WED NIGHT
THROUGH FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  75  86  75 /  30  20  50  30
STT  85  75  85  76 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

64/64








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 141420 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1020 AM AST MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF 70W WILL AMPLIFY SEWD WITH
AXIS CROSSING PR EARLY TUE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TUE THRU THU.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DESPITE HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT...MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY
MOISTURE INCREASE TODAY. 12Z JSJ RAOB INDICATES A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AROUND 750 MB WITH ONLY MODEST MOISTURE. EXPECT SOME
SCATTERED SHALLOW CONVECTION OVR WRN PR LATER TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TUE THROUGH THU WITH NO SIG MOISTURE
ADVECTION. MOISTURE INCREASES DURING THE WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS FALL
IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS ALSO
STRENGTHEN THU AND FRI GENERATING ROUGH SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS AT KPK THRU 16Z AND AT JMZ LATER TODAY WITH
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL SEAS THROUGH WED. WINDS STRENGTHEN WED NIGHT
THROUGH FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  75  86  75 /  30  20  50  30
STT  85  75  85  76 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

64/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 140904
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
504 AM AST MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WITH A BRANCH OF THE SUB-TROPICAL JET TO THE
NORTH A WEAK TROUGH WILL PULL THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. THE
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...BUT WILL NOT MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL
SATURDAY AFTER IT HAS LOST MOST OF ITS STRENGTH. ANOTHER WEAK
TROUGH IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE AS
A REX BLOCK FORMS IN THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. LATER
IN THE WEEK THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE WEST AS A TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM A LOW IN THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC FORCES ITS WAY OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND FADES OVER THE WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TRADE WINDS CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC RECEIVES SOME REINFORCEMENT AND SAGS INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC MID WEEK. GRADIENTS TIGHTEN LATER IN THE WEEK.
WINDS AT THE SURFACE BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS FALLING ON THE ISLANDS TO THE EAST. MOISTURE IN THE
FORM OF CLOUD CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FIRST PART OF THIS WEEK AIDED BY A TROUGH PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT.
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE GFS
INCREASES THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK SO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THAT PERIOD. TRADE WINDS WILL PEAK ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE NEXT WEEK WHEN THEY BECOME
DISTINCTIVELY MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL BRING MORE TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AS MOISTURE INCREASES THE DEPTH OF THE
MOIST LAYER ALSO INCREASES AND WOULD EXPECT THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST EACH AFTERNOON TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
BEGINNING NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...PASSING SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
ALL TERMINALS FROM TIME TO TIME CREATING VCSH AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS.
SCT SHRA AFTER 14/17Z...WILL CREATE MVFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE OBSCURED
MOUNTAINS AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ. EAST WINDS SFC UP TO 10 KFT AT 10 TO
15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL THURSDAY. SEVEN-
FOOT WAVES ARE FORECAST TO BE EASTERLY IN DIRECTION AND WILL BE
THE RESULT OF LOCALLY HIGHER TRADE WINDS...BUT AS A RESULT...
SOMEWHAT CHOPPIER THAN NORMAL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  85  75  86  75 /  30  20  50  30
STT  85  75  85  76 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 140904
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
504 AM AST MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WITH A BRANCH OF THE SUB-TROPICAL JET TO THE
NORTH A WEAK TROUGH WILL PULL THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. THE
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...BUT WILL NOT MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL
SATURDAY AFTER IT HAS LOST MOST OF ITS STRENGTH. ANOTHER WEAK
TROUGH IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE AS
A REX BLOCK FORMS IN THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. LATER
IN THE WEEK THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE WEST AS A TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM A LOW IN THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC FORCES ITS WAY OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND FADES OVER THE WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TRADE WINDS CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC RECEIVES SOME REINFORCEMENT AND SAGS INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC MID WEEK. GRADIENTS TIGHTEN LATER IN THE WEEK.
WINDS AT THE SURFACE BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS FALLING ON THE ISLANDS TO THE EAST. MOISTURE IN THE
FORM OF CLOUD CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FIRST PART OF THIS WEEK AIDED BY A TROUGH PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT.
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE GFS
INCREASES THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK SO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THAT PERIOD. TRADE WINDS WILL PEAK ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE NEXT WEEK WHEN THEY BECOME
DISTINCTIVELY MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL BRING MORE TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AS MOISTURE INCREASES THE DEPTH OF THE
MOIST LAYER ALSO INCREASES AND WOULD EXPECT THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST EACH AFTERNOON TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
BEGINNING NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...PASSING SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
ALL TERMINALS FROM TIME TO TIME CREATING VCSH AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS.
SCT SHRA AFTER 14/17Z...WILL CREATE MVFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE OBSCURED
MOUNTAINS AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ. EAST WINDS SFC UP TO 10 KFT AT 10 TO
15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL THURSDAY. SEVEN-
FOOT WAVES ARE FORECAST TO BE EASTERLY IN DIRECTION AND WILL BE
THE RESULT OF LOCALLY HIGHER TRADE WINDS...BUT AS A RESULT...
SOMEWHAT CHOPPIER THAN NORMAL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  85  75  86  75 /  30  20  50  30
STT  85  75  85  76 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/12







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities