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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 220139
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
939 PM AST TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FROM THE WEST AS TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH ITS AXIS ESTABLISHING SOUTHEAST OF LOCAL
ISLANDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AT MID AND LOW LEVELS...MID LEVEL
RIDGE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 54W MOVING MAINLY SOUTH OF LOCAL AREA
FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH UNDER THIS EVOLVING PATTERN THERE IS A LACK OF DYNAMICS...
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO RESULT IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. BEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE. HOWEVER...BULK OF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS. MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED
TO FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD
WITH POSSIBLE VCSH ACROSS TNCM/TKPK/TJSJ. TJSJ 22/00Z SOUNDING
INDICATED A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 10K
FEET...BECOMING VARIABLE BUT STILL LIGHT FROM 10-35K FEET AND
STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS. SWELL
ACTION DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM AST TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDED
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE WEAKENING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
SLOWLY RETROGRESS INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NOW NEAR 52 WEST AND WEST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES BY LATE. THIS WAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH
THE BROAD EQUATORIAL TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

DISCUSSION...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PRODUCT CONTINUED TO SUGGEST DECREASING PWAT VALUES NOW
RANGING BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.70 INCHES. HOWEVER....STILL SUFFICIENT
POCKETS OF MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS TO COMBINE WITH
DIURNAL AND LOCAL EFFECTS ALONG WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ACTIVITY SHOULD
HOWEVER DIMINISH BY SUNSET LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY SKIES.

OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...DECREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG
WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL INCREASE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND HELP TO SUPPRESS AND LIMIT DAYTIME CONVECTION EACH DAY.
HOWEVER SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE NEXT FEATURE FORECAST TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE TO THE REGION WILL
BE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE. THIS FEATURE WILL INTERACT
WITH A TUTT WHICH WILL RETROGRESS WESTWARD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...
AND ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...PRESENT SCENARIO
SUGGEST THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE SHOULD MOVE
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE DOMINANT RIDGE ALOFT IS TO SUPPRESS
ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS
WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY
TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AVIATION...AFTER SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN PR. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE VCSH
ACROSS TNCM/TKPK/TJSJ. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...BUOYS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST 3 TO 4 FEET NORTHERLY
SWELL AT 11-14 SECONDS TODAY. HOWEVER THE SWELL ACTION WILL
CONTINUE TO FADE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS 14 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS DURING THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  89  76  88 /  20  20  10  20
STT  77  89  79  88 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/23







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 211911
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
311 PM AST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDED
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE WEAKENING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
SLOWLY RETROGRESS INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NOW NEAR 52 WEST AND WEST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES BY LATE. THIS WAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH
THE BROAD EQUATORIAL TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PRODUCT CONTINUED TO SUGGEST DECREASING PWAT VALUES NOW
RANGING BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.70 INCHES. HOWEVER....STILL SUFFICIENT
POCKETS OF MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS TO COMBINE WITH
DIURNAL AND LOCAL EFFECTS ALONG WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ACTIVITY SHOULD
HOWEVER DIMINISH BY SUNSET LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY SKIES.

OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...DECREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG
WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL INCREASE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND HELP TO SUPPRESS AND LIMIT DAYTIME CONVECTION EACH DAY.
HOWEVER SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE NEXT FEATURE FORECAST TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE TO THE REGION WILL
BE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE. THIS FEATURE WILL INTERACT
WITH A TUTT WHICH WILL RETROGRESS WESTWARD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...
AND ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...PRESENT SCENARIO
SUGGEST THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE SHOULD MOVE
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE DOMINANT RIDGE ALOFT IS TO SUPPRESS
ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS
WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY
TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTER SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN PR. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE VCSH
ACROSS TNCM/TKPK/TJSJ. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST 3 TO 4 FEET NORTHERLY
SWELL AT 11-14 SECONDS TODAY. HOWEVER THE SWELL ACTION WILL
CONTINUE TO FADE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS 14 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS DURING THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  89  76  88 /  30  30  10  20
STT  77  89  79  88 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

13/09







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 211434
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1034 AM AST TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES MADE TO SHORT TERM GRIDS. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS ALL LOCAL ISLANDS
THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS REACHED PORTIONS OF
EASTERN PR AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE
NOT SIGNIFICANT. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...STREAMERS FORMING OVER
THE USVI...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA WILL CREATE PERIODS OF SHOWERS OVER
THE SURROUNDING WATERS WITH A FEW OF THEM REACHING EASTERN PR.
THEN...AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL WILL BRING
AGAIN PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN QUADRANT OF PR.

&&

.AVIATION...ADDED TEMPO GROUPS TO TJBQ AND TJMZ AS AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SHOULD FOCUS OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF PR. THE 21/12Z
TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW WITH 15 KT
WINDS BETWEEN 1-5 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF PUERTO RICO ARE STILL
INDICATING A 3-4 FEET NORTH SWELL AT 11-14 SECONDS. HAZARDOUS RIP
CURRENTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE REST OF THE DAY. NO CHANGES
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM AST TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY NORTH FLOW OVER THE AREA AND RIDGING
NORTH OF THE AREA THAT CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM A LOW IN THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL DISPLACE
THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH AFTER A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND
CUT-OFF LOW MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE
AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND
HIGHER PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA CONTINUE. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALSO CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN A BOX BOUNDED BY 50 AND 60 WEST
LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE UNTIL THURSDAY. EAST
SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND WHILE LOW PRESSURES DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH.

DISCUSSION...A SIMILAR SITUATION TO YESTERDAY ABIDES AGAIN TODAY
WITH SMALL SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MOVING IN THE EAST
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW AND A SMATTERING OF SMALL SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN AND
EASTERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO. AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO HUNDREDTHS
HAVE BEEN NOTED WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN OVER THE AREA TODAY...A WEAK
SHORT WAVE THIS AFTERNOON AND LIFTED INDICES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN...TO INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO WHERE URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE NOTED ELSEWHERE. NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER AIR AT LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL REDUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ADDED
SUNSHINE AND THE SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S IN THE SAN JUAN GREATER
METROPOLITAN AREA AND KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS ON THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS.

THEN...ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND SHOWERS WILL
RETURN IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...MAINLY TO NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO
AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. SLIGHTLY DRIER DAYS WILL
BEGIN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND LAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AFTER
A TROUGH AT UPPER LEVELS PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND BETTER
CONDITIONS ARE FOUND IN ITS NORTHEAST QUADRANT.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.
WINDS INCREASE TO 8-15 KTS FM THE EAST AFT 21/13Z WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS. VCSH PSBL AT TJSJ/TISX/TIST TIL EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR BETWEEN 21/17-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDS
AND MTN OBSCURATIONS... IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ TAF SITES.

MARINE...GENERALLY DIMINISHING SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND WAVES FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL INCREASE IN BOTH
THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  78  90  77 /  30  30  30  10
STT  88  79  88  79 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/09






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 211434
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1034 AM AST TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES MADE TO SHORT TERM GRIDS. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS ALL LOCAL ISLANDS
THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS REACHED PORTIONS OF
EASTERN PR AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE
NOT SIGNIFICANT. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...STREAMERS FORMING OVER
THE USVI...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA WILL CREATE PERIODS OF SHOWERS OVER
THE SURROUNDING WATERS WITH A FEW OF THEM REACHING EASTERN PR.
THEN...AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL WILL BRING
AGAIN PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN QUADRANT OF PR.

&&

.AVIATION...ADDED TEMPO GROUPS TO TJBQ AND TJMZ AS AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SHOULD FOCUS OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF PR. THE 21/12Z
TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW WITH 15 KT
WINDS BETWEEN 1-5 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF PUERTO RICO ARE STILL
INDICATING A 3-4 FEET NORTH SWELL AT 11-14 SECONDS. HAZARDOUS RIP
CURRENTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE REST OF THE DAY. NO CHANGES
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM AST TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY NORTH FLOW OVER THE AREA AND RIDGING
NORTH OF THE AREA THAT CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM A LOW IN THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL DISPLACE
THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH AFTER A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND
CUT-OFF LOW MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE
AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND
HIGHER PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA CONTINUE. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALSO CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN A BOX BOUNDED BY 50 AND 60 WEST
LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE UNTIL THURSDAY. EAST
SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND WHILE LOW PRESSURES DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH.

DISCUSSION...A SIMILAR SITUATION TO YESTERDAY ABIDES AGAIN TODAY
WITH SMALL SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MOVING IN THE EAST
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW AND A SMATTERING OF SMALL SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN AND
EASTERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO. AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO HUNDREDTHS
HAVE BEEN NOTED WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN OVER THE AREA TODAY...A WEAK
SHORT WAVE THIS AFTERNOON AND LIFTED INDICES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN...TO INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO WHERE URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE NOTED ELSEWHERE. NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER AIR AT LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL REDUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ADDED
SUNSHINE AND THE SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S IN THE SAN JUAN GREATER
METROPOLITAN AREA AND KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS ON THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS.

THEN...ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND SHOWERS WILL
RETURN IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...MAINLY TO NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO
AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. SLIGHTLY DRIER DAYS WILL
BEGIN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND LAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AFTER
A TROUGH AT UPPER LEVELS PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND BETTER
CONDITIONS ARE FOUND IN ITS NORTHEAST QUADRANT.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.
WINDS INCREASE TO 8-15 KTS FM THE EAST AFT 21/13Z WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS. VCSH PSBL AT TJSJ/TISX/TIST TIL EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR BETWEEN 21/17-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDS
AND MTN OBSCURATIONS... IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ TAF SITES.

MARINE...GENERALLY DIMINISHING SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND WAVES FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL INCREASE IN BOTH
THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  78  90  77 /  30  30  30  10
STT  88  79  88  79 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/09







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 210953
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
553 AM AST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY NORTH FLOW OVER THE AREA AND RIDGING
NORTH OF THE AREA THAT CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM A LOW IN THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL DISPLACE
THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH AFTER A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND
CUT-OFF LOW MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE
AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND
HIGHER PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA CONTINUE. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALSO CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN A BOX BOUNDED BY 50 AND 60 WEST
LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE UNTIL THURSDAY. EAST
SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND WHILE LOW PRESSURES DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SIMILAR SITUATION TO YESTERDAY ABIDES AGAIN TODAY
WITH SMALL SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MOVING IN THE EAST
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW AND A SMATTERING OF SMALL SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN AND
EASTERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO. AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO HUNDREDTHS
HAVE BEEN NOTED WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN OVER THE AREA TODAY...A WEAK
SHORT WAVE THIS AFTERNOON AND LIFTED INDICES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN...TO INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO WHERE URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE NOTED ELSEWHERE. NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER AIR AT LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL REDUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ADDED
SUNSHINE AND THE SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S IN THE SAN JUAN GREATER
METROPOLITAN AREA AND KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS ON THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS.

THEN...ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND SHOWERS WILL
RETURN IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...MAINLY TO NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO
AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. SLIGHTLY DRIER DAYS WILL
BEGIN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND LAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AFTER
A TROUGH AT UPPER LEVELS PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND BETTER
CONDITIONS ARE FOUND IN ITS NORTHEAST QUADRANT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.
WINDS INCREASE TO 8-15 KTS FM THE EAST AFT 21/13Z WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS. VCSH PSBL AT TJSJ/TISX/TIST TIL EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR BETWEEN 21/17-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDS
AND MTN OBSCURATIONS... IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY DIMINISHING SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND WAVES FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL INCREASE IN BOTH
THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  78  90  77 /  30  30  30  10
STT  88  79  88  79 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 210953
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
553 AM AST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY NORTH FLOW OVER THE AREA AND RIDGING
NORTH OF THE AREA THAT CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM A LOW IN THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL DISPLACE
THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH AFTER A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND
CUT-OFF LOW MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE
AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND
HIGHER PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA CONTINUE. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALSO CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN A BOX BOUNDED BY 50 AND 60 WEST
LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE UNTIL THURSDAY. EAST
SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND WHILE LOW PRESSURES DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SIMILAR SITUATION TO YESTERDAY ABIDES AGAIN TODAY
WITH SMALL SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MOVING IN THE EAST
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW AND A SMATTERING OF SMALL SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN AND
EASTERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO. AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO HUNDREDTHS
HAVE BEEN NOTED WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN OVER THE AREA TODAY...A WEAK
SHORT WAVE THIS AFTERNOON AND LIFTED INDICES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN...TO INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO WHERE URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE NOTED ELSEWHERE. NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER AIR AT LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL REDUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ADDED
SUNSHINE AND THE SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S IN THE SAN JUAN GREATER
METROPOLITAN AREA AND KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS ON THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS.

THEN...ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND SHOWERS WILL
RETURN IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...MAINLY TO NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO
AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. SLIGHTLY DRIER DAYS WILL
BEGIN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND LAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AFTER
A TROUGH AT UPPER LEVELS PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND BETTER
CONDITIONS ARE FOUND IN ITS NORTHEAST QUADRANT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.
WINDS INCREASE TO 8-15 KTS FM THE EAST AFT 21/13Z WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS. VCSH PSBL AT TJSJ/TISX/TIST TIL EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR BETWEEN 21/17-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDS
AND MTN OBSCURATIONS... IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY DIMINISHING SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND WAVES FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL INCREASE IN BOTH
THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  78  90  77 /  30  30  30  10
STT  88  79  88  79 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/12







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 210258
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1052 PM AST MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD AS AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH ITS AXIS ESTABLISHING SOUTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. STRENGTHENING OF
MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 50W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY. UNDER THIS PATTERN...EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS CONVERGENT SIDE
OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE EAST. AS A RESULT CONTINUE TO
EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH DAY...BUT
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE DECREASING. MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED
TO FORECAST PACKAGE TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING 8-15 KTS FM THE EAST AFTER
21/13Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR BETWEEN 21/17-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCD...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. VCSH AT
TJSJ/TISX/TIST POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET IN NNE SWELLS SUBSIDING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM AST MON OCT 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SHORTWAVE-TROUGH OVR THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
ACROSS PR TUE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD WED THROUGH SAT THEN
WEAKEN AS TUTT EVOLVES OVR THE SRN CARIBBEAN.

DISCUSSION...WHILE A S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUE...MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. FURTHER DRYING IS EXPECTED WED THROUGH THU AS
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS WITH SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF 50W WILL REMAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH SAT
WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...A T-STORM POSSIBLE AT JMZ TUE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS.

MARINE...SOME INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGH SAT BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  77  89 /  20  20   0  10
STT  78  88  77  88 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/23








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 210258
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1052 PM AST MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD AS AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH ITS AXIS ESTABLISHING SOUTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. STRENGTHENING OF
MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 50W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY. UNDER THIS PATTERN...EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS CONVERGENT SIDE
OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE EAST. AS A RESULT CONTINUE TO
EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH DAY...BUT
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE DECREASING. MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED
TO FORECAST PACKAGE TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING 8-15 KTS FM THE EAST AFTER
21/13Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR BETWEEN 21/17-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCD...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. VCSH AT
TJSJ/TISX/TIST POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET IN NNE SWELLS SUBSIDING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM AST MON OCT 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SHORTWAVE-TROUGH OVR THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
ACROSS PR TUE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD WED THROUGH SAT THEN
WEAKEN AS TUTT EVOLVES OVR THE SRN CARIBBEAN.

DISCUSSION...WHILE A S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUE...MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. FURTHER DRYING IS EXPECTED WED THROUGH THU AS
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS WITH SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF 50W WILL REMAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH SAT
WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...A T-STORM POSSIBLE AT JMZ TUE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS.

MARINE...SOME INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGH SAT BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  77  89 /  20  20   0  10
STT  78  88  77  88 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/23







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 210252
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1052 PM AST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD AS AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH ITS AXIS ESTABLISHING SOUTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. STRENGTHENING OF
MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 50W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY. UNDER THIS PATTERN...EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS CONVERGENT SIDE
OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE EAST. AS A RESULT CONTINUE TO
EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH DAY...BUT
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE DECREASING. MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED
TO FORECAST PACKAGE TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING 8-15 KTS FM THE EAST AFTER
21/13Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR BETWEEN 21/17-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCD...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. VCSH AT
TJSJ/TISX/TIST POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET IN NNE SWELLS SUBSIDING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM AST MON OCT 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SHORTWAVE-TROUGH OVR THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
ACROSS PR TUE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD WED THROUGH SAT THEN
WEAKEN AS TUTT EVOLVES OVR THE SRN CARIBBEAN.

DISCUSSION...WHILE A S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUE...MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. FURTHER DRYING IS EXPECTED WED THROUGH THU AS
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS WITH SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF 50W WILL REMAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH SAT
WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...A T-STORM POSSIBLE AT JMZ TUE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS.

MARINE...SOME INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGH SAT BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  77  89 /  20  20   0  10
STT  78  88  77  88 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/23







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 210252
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1052 PM AST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD AS AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH ITS AXIS ESTABLISHING SOUTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. STRENGTHENING OF
MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 50W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY. UNDER THIS PATTERN...EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS CONVERGENT SIDE
OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE EAST. AS A RESULT CONTINUE TO
EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH DAY...BUT
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE DECREASING. MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED
TO FORECAST PACKAGE TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING 8-15 KTS FM THE EAST AFTER
21/13Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR BETWEEN 21/17-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCD...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. VCSH AT
TJSJ/TISX/TIST POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET IN NNE SWELLS SUBSIDING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM AST MON OCT 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SHORTWAVE-TROUGH OVR THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
ACROSS PR TUE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD WED THROUGH SAT THEN
WEAKEN AS TUTT EVOLVES OVR THE SRN CARIBBEAN.

DISCUSSION...WHILE A S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUE...MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. FURTHER DRYING IS EXPECTED WED THROUGH THU AS
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS WITH SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF 50W WILL REMAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH SAT
WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...A T-STORM POSSIBLE AT JMZ TUE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS.

MARINE...SOME INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGH SAT BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  77  89 /  20  20   0  10
STT  78  88  77  88 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/23








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 210252
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1052 PM AST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD AS AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH ITS AXIS ESTABLISHING SOUTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. STRENGTHENING OF
MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 50W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY. UNDER THIS PATTERN...EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS CONVERGENT SIDE
OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE EAST. AS A RESULT CONTINUE TO
EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH DAY...BUT
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE DECREASING. MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED
TO FORECAST PACKAGE TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING 8-15 KTS FM THE EAST AFTER
21/13Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR BETWEEN 21/17-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCD...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. VCSH AT
TJSJ/TISX/TIST POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET IN NNE SWELLS SUBSIDING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM AST MON OCT 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SHORTWAVE-TROUGH OVR THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
ACROSS PR TUE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD WED THROUGH SAT THEN
WEAKEN AS TUTT EVOLVES OVR THE SRN CARIBBEAN.

DISCUSSION...WHILE A S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUE...MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. FURTHER DRYING IS EXPECTED WED THROUGH THU AS
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS WITH SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF 50W WILL REMAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH SAT
WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...A T-STORM POSSIBLE AT JMZ TUE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS.

MARINE...SOME INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGH SAT BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  77  89 /  20  20   0  10
STT  78  88  77  88 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/23








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 210252
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1052 PM AST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD AS AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH ITS AXIS ESTABLISHING SOUTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. STRENGTHENING OF
MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 50W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY. UNDER THIS PATTERN...EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS CONVERGENT SIDE
OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE EAST. AS A RESULT CONTINUE TO
EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH DAY...BUT
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE DECREASING. MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED
TO FORECAST PACKAGE TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING 8-15 KTS FM THE EAST AFTER
21/13Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR BETWEEN 21/17-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCD...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. VCSH AT
TJSJ/TISX/TIST POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET IN NNE SWELLS SUBSIDING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM AST MON OCT 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SHORTWAVE-TROUGH OVR THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
ACROSS PR TUE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD WED THROUGH SAT THEN
WEAKEN AS TUTT EVOLVES OVR THE SRN CARIBBEAN.

DISCUSSION...WHILE A S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUE...MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. FURTHER DRYING IS EXPECTED WED THROUGH THU AS
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS WITH SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF 50W WILL REMAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH SAT
WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...A T-STORM POSSIBLE AT JMZ TUE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS.

MARINE...SOME INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGH SAT BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  77  89 /  20  20   0  10
STT  78  88  77  88 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/23







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 201903
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHORTWAVE-TROUGH OVR THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
ACROSS PR TUE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD WED THROUGH SAT THEN
WEAKEN AS TUTT EVOLVES OVR THE SRN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WHILE A S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUE...MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. FURTHER DRYING IS EXPECTED WED THROUGH THU AS
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS WITH SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF 50W WILL REMAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH SAT
WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...A T-STORM POSSIBLE AT JMZ TUE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.MARINE...SOME INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGH SAT BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  77  89 /  20  20   0  10
STT  78  87  77  88 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 201441
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1041 AM AST MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS...USVI...AND EASTERN PR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR
THIS MORNING. THESE ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER MOST OF THE ATTENTION IS
NOW GEARED TOWARDS THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON.

20/12Z RAOB INDICATED A TEMPERATURE OF -9C AT 500MB...WHICH IS
ROUGHLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS COLD TEMP IN THE
MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE
MAY CAUSE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME DECENT THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD EVEN DEVELOP SOME SMALL HAIL. HAVING SAID THAT...THE
FREEZING LEVEL AND WET- BULB ZERO HEIGHT ARE BOTH RATHER HIGH AT
OVER 15 KFT AND 13 KFT RESPECTIVELY...WHICH MEANS THAT MOST OF THE
HAIL COULD BE MELTED BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND
EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&


.AVIATION...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VCTS EXPECTED FOR
TJPS AND TJMZ IN THE AFTERNOON AS TSRA DEVELOPS OVER THE
INTERIOR...SOUTH..AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. TEMPO GROUPS LEFT
OUT DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION AND TIMING...BUT
+TSRA ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA NEAR TJPS AND TJMZ AFTER
20/17Z. VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH
PASSING SHRA OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ONE MORE BURST OF SWELL FROM THE NORTH NORTH EAST ON
TUESDAY OF UP 3 TO 4 FEET. WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE OVER THE
WEEK BUT WILL BECOME MORE EAST SOUTHEAST AFTER TUESDAY. NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM AST MON OCT 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY AND TOMORROW. ANOTHER WEAK
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A RIDGE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE COURSE
OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA. AN
INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY WILL
MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN MONDAY AND PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WEEK LIMITED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY AND THEN RETURN ON FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA WILL GENERATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADE WIND FLOW UNTIL MID WEEK. GENERALLY GOOD MOISTURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALSO CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN A BOX BOUNDED BY 50
AND 60 WEST LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE UNTIL THURSDAY.
LATER THIS WEEK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD
SOUTH INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. LOOK FOR GENERALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE SEEN ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS EXCEPT IN THE SHADOW OF PUERTO RICO GENERATED BY THE EAST
NORTHEAST FLOW. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MADE IT INLAND ON THE
COASTS AROUND PUERTO RICO FROM DORADO AND SAN JUAN THROUGH FAJARDO
AND YABUCOA. A FEW SHOWERS WERE ALSO SEEN IN PARTS OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. RELATIVELY GOOD MOISTURE AROUND 1.7 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND MINUS 5 TO MINUS
6 WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO IN MUCH THE SAME AREAS AS
YESTERDAY WITH LITTLE EXPECTED ON THE NORTH COAST AND HEAVY RAINS
AT TIMES IN THE WESTERN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. SOME
STREAMERS MAY ALSO BE GENERATED DOWNWIND FROM THE THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. CURRENTLY THE GFS KEEPS THE MOISTURE AT THESE ABUNDANT
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS VEERING VERY SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE
EAST. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE INTERIOR THROUGH TOMORROW. WIND FLOW BEGINS TO VEER DEVELOPING
A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THAT SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES ON THE
NORTH COAST BY SEVERAL DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE
LEVELS DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT MUCH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY THEN AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURNS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND SHOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA 2 TO
4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE PEAK OF THE WARMING.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD
EXCEPT AS FOLLOWS. PSBL VCSH ACROSS TJSJ/TIST/TISX FROM 20/09Z-20/16Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO
8-12 KTS FM THE EAST AFT 20/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR BETWEEN 20/18-22Z CREATING
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ WITH BRIEF MVFR.
ALSO...VCTS PSBL AT TJSJ AND TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.

MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ONE MORE BURST OF SWELL FROM THE NORTH NORTH EAST ON
TUESDAY OF UP 3 TO 4 FEET. WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE OVER THE
WEEK BUT WILL BECOME MORE EAST SOUTHEAST AFTER TUESDAY. NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  77  88  77 /  30  30  30  30
STT  89  78  87  77 /  40  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/64









000
FXCA62 TJSJ 201441
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1041 AM AST MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS...USVI...AND EASTERN PR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR
THIS MORNING. THESE ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER MOST OF THE ATTENTION IS
NOW GEARED TOWARDS THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON.

20/12Z RAOB INDICATED A TEMPERATURE OF -9C AT 500MB...WHICH IS
ROUGHLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS COLD TEMP IN THE
MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE
MAY CAUSE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME DECENT THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD EVEN DEVELOP SOME SMALL HAIL. HAVING SAID THAT...THE
FREEZING LEVEL AND WET- BULB ZERO HEIGHT ARE BOTH RATHER HIGH AT
OVER 15 KFT AND 13 KFT RESPECTIVELY...WHICH MEANS THAT MOST OF THE
HAIL COULD BE MELTED BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND
EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&


.AVIATION...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VCTS EXPECTED FOR
TJPS AND TJMZ IN THE AFTERNOON AS TSRA DEVELOPS OVER THE
INTERIOR...SOUTH..AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. TEMPO GROUPS LEFT
OUT DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION AND TIMING...BUT
+TSRA ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA NEAR TJPS AND TJMZ AFTER
20/17Z. VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH
PASSING SHRA OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ONE MORE BURST OF SWELL FROM THE NORTH NORTH EAST ON
TUESDAY OF UP 3 TO 4 FEET. WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE OVER THE
WEEK BUT WILL BECOME MORE EAST SOUTHEAST AFTER TUESDAY. NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM AST MON OCT 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY AND TOMORROW. ANOTHER WEAK
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A RIDGE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE COURSE
OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA. AN
INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY WILL
MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN MONDAY AND PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WEEK LIMITED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY AND THEN RETURN ON FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA WILL GENERATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADE WIND FLOW UNTIL MID WEEK. GENERALLY GOOD MOISTURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALSO CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN A BOX BOUNDED BY 50
AND 60 WEST LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE UNTIL THURSDAY.
LATER THIS WEEK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD
SOUTH INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. LOOK FOR GENERALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE SEEN ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS EXCEPT IN THE SHADOW OF PUERTO RICO GENERATED BY THE EAST
NORTHEAST FLOW. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MADE IT INLAND ON THE
COASTS AROUND PUERTO RICO FROM DORADO AND SAN JUAN THROUGH FAJARDO
AND YABUCOA. A FEW SHOWERS WERE ALSO SEEN IN PARTS OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. RELATIVELY GOOD MOISTURE AROUND 1.7 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND MINUS 5 TO MINUS
6 WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO IN MUCH THE SAME AREAS AS
YESTERDAY WITH LITTLE EXPECTED ON THE NORTH COAST AND HEAVY RAINS
AT TIMES IN THE WESTERN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. SOME
STREAMERS MAY ALSO BE GENERATED DOWNWIND FROM THE THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. CURRENTLY THE GFS KEEPS THE MOISTURE AT THESE ABUNDANT
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS VEERING VERY SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE
EAST. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE INTERIOR THROUGH TOMORROW. WIND FLOW BEGINS TO VEER DEVELOPING
A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THAT SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES ON THE
NORTH COAST BY SEVERAL DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE
LEVELS DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT MUCH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY THEN AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURNS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND SHOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA 2 TO
4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE PEAK OF THE WARMING.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD
EXCEPT AS FOLLOWS. PSBL VCSH ACROSS TJSJ/TIST/TISX FROM 20/09Z-20/16Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO
8-12 KTS FM THE EAST AFT 20/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR BETWEEN 20/18-22Z CREATING
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ WITH BRIEF MVFR.
ALSO...VCTS PSBL AT TJSJ AND TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.

MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ONE MORE BURST OF SWELL FROM THE NORTH NORTH EAST ON
TUESDAY OF UP 3 TO 4 FEET. WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE OVER THE
WEEK BUT WILL BECOME MORE EAST SOUTHEAST AFTER TUESDAY. NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  77  88  77 /  30  30  30  30
STT  89  78  87  77 /  40  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/64








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200932 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY AND TOMORROW. ANOTHER WEAK
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A RIDGE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE COURSE
OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA. AN
INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY WILL
MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN MONDAY AND PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WEEK LIMITED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY AND THEN RETURN ON FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA WILL GENERATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADE WIND FLOW UNTIL MID WEEK. GENERALLY GOOD MOISTURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALSO CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN A BOX BOUNDED BY 50
AND 60 WEST LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE UNTIL THURSDAY.
LATER THIS WEEK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD
SOUTH INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. LOOK FOR GENERALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE SEEN ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS EXCEPT IN THE SHADOW OF PUERTO RICO GENERATED BY THE EAST
NORTHEAST FLOW. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MADE IT INLAND ON THE
COASTS AROUND PUERTO RICO FROM DORADO AND SAN JUAN THROUGH FAJARDO
AND YABUCOA. A FEW SHOWERS WERE ALSO SEEN IN PARTS OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. RELATIVELY GOOD MOISTURE AROUND 1.7 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND MINUS 5 TO MINUS
6 WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO IN MUCH THE SAME AREAS AS
YESTERDAY WITH LITTLE EXPECTED ON THE NORTH COAST AND HEAVY RAINS
AT TIMES IN THE WESTERN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. SOME
STREAMERS MAY ALSO BE GENERATED DOWNWIND FROM THE THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. CURRENTLY THE GFS KEEPS THE MOISTURE AT THESE ABUNDANT
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS VEERING VERY SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE
EAST. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE INTERIOR THROUGH TOMORROW. WIND FLOW BEGINS TO VEER DEVELOPING
A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THAT SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES ON THE
NORTH COAST BY SEVERAL DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE
LEVELS DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT MUCH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY THEN AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURNS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND SHOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA 2 TO
4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE PEAK OF THE WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD
EXCEPT AS FOLLOWS. PSBL VCSH ACROSS TJSJ/TIST/TISX FROM 20/09Z-20/16Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO
8-12 KTS FM THE EAST AFT 20/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR BETWEEN 20/18-22Z CREATING
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ WITH BRIEF MVFR.
ALSO...VCTS PSBL AT TJSJ AND TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ONE MORE BURST OF SWELL FROM THE NORTH NORTH EAST ON
TUESDAY OF UP 3 TO 4 FEET. WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE OVER THE
WEEK BUT WILL BECOME MORE EAST SOUTHEAST AFTER TUESDAY. NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  77  88  77 /  30  30  30  30
STT  89  78  87  77 /  40  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200932 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY AND TOMORROW. ANOTHER WEAK
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A RIDGE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE COURSE
OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA. AN
INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY WILL
MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN MONDAY AND PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WEEK LIMITED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY AND THEN RETURN ON FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA WILL GENERATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADE WIND FLOW UNTIL MID WEEK. GENERALLY GOOD MOISTURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALSO CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN A BOX BOUNDED BY 50
AND 60 WEST LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE UNTIL THURSDAY.
LATER THIS WEEK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD
SOUTH INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. LOOK FOR GENERALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE SEEN ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS EXCEPT IN THE SHADOW OF PUERTO RICO GENERATED BY THE EAST
NORTHEAST FLOW. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MADE IT INLAND ON THE
COASTS AROUND PUERTO RICO FROM DORADO AND SAN JUAN THROUGH FAJARDO
AND YABUCOA. A FEW SHOWERS WERE ALSO SEEN IN PARTS OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. RELATIVELY GOOD MOISTURE AROUND 1.7 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND MINUS 5 TO MINUS
6 WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO IN MUCH THE SAME AREAS AS
YESTERDAY WITH LITTLE EXPECTED ON THE NORTH COAST AND HEAVY RAINS
AT TIMES IN THE WESTERN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. SOME
STREAMERS MAY ALSO BE GENERATED DOWNWIND FROM THE THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. CURRENTLY THE GFS KEEPS THE MOISTURE AT THESE ABUNDANT
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS VEERING VERY SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE
EAST. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE INTERIOR THROUGH TOMORROW. WIND FLOW BEGINS TO VEER DEVELOPING
A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THAT SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES ON THE
NORTH COAST BY SEVERAL DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE
LEVELS DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT MUCH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY THEN AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURNS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND SHOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA 2 TO
4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE PEAK OF THE WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD
EXCEPT AS FOLLOWS. PSBL VCSH ACROSS TJSJ/TIST/TISX FROM 20/09Z-20/16Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO
8-12 KTS FM THE EAST AFT 20/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR BETWEEN 20/18-22Z CREATING
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ WITH BRIEF MVFR.
ALSO...VCTS PSBL AT TJSJ AND TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ONE MORE BURST OF SWELL FROM THE NORTH NORTH EAST ON
TUESDAY OF UP 3 TO 4 FEET. WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE OVER THE
WEEK BUT WILL BECOME MORE EAST SOUTHEAST AFTER TUESDAY. NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  77  88  77 /  30  30  30  30
STT  89  78  87  77 /  40  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/12







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200912
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
512 AM AST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY AND TOMORROW. ANOTHER WEAK
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A RIDGE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE COURSE
OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA. AN
INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY WILL
MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN MONDAY AND PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WEEK LIMITED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY AND THEN RETURN ON FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA WILL GENERATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADE WIND FLOW UNTIL MID WEEK. GENERALLY GOOD MOISTURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALSO CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN A BOX BOUNDED BY 50
AND 60 WEST LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE UNTIL THURSDAY.
LATER THIS WEEK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD
SOUTH INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. LOOK FOR GENERALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE SEEN ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS EXCEPT IN THE SHADOW OF PUERTO RICO GENERATED BY THE EAST
NORTHEAST FLOW. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MADE IT INLAND ON THE
COASTS AROUND PUERTO RICO FROM DORADO AND SAN JUAN THROUGH FAJARDO
AND YABUCOA. A FEW SHOWERS WERE ALSO SEEN IN PARTS OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. RELATIVELY GOOD MOISTURE AROUND 1.7 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND MINUS 5 TO MINUS
6 WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO IN MUCH THE SAME AREAS AS
YESTERDAY WITH LITTLE EXPECTED ON THE NORTH COAST AND HEAVY RAINS
AT TIMES IN THE WESTERN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. SOME
STREAMERS MAY ALSO BE GENERATED DOWNWIND FROM THE THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. CURRENTLY THE GFS KEEPS THE MOISTURE AT THESE ABUNDANT
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS VEERING VERY SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE
EAST. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE INTERIOR THROUGH TOMORROW. WIND FLOW BEGINS TO VEER DEVELOPING
A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THAT SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES ON THE
NORTH COAST BY SEVERAL DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE
LEVELS DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT MUCH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY THEN AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURNS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND SHOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA 2 TO
4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE PEAK OF THE WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD
EXCEPT AS FOLLOWS. PSBL VCSH ACROSS TJSJ/TIST/TISX FROM 20/09Z-20/16Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO
8-12 KTS FM THE EAST AFT 20/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR BETWEEN 20/18-22Z CREATING
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ WITH BRIEF MVFR.
ALSO...VCTS PSBL AT TJSJ AND TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ONE MORE BURST OF SWELL FROM THE NORTH NORTH EAST
ON TUESDAY OF UP 3 TO 4 FEET. WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE OVER
THE WEEK BUT WILL BECOME MORE EAST SOUTHEAST AFTER TUESDAY. NO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  77  88  77 /  30  30  30  30
STT  89  78  87  77 /  40  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200912
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
512 AM AST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY AND TOMORROW. ANOTHER WEAK
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A RIDGE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE COURSE
OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA. AN
INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY WILL
MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN MONDAY AND PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WEEK LIMITED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY AND THEN RETURN ON FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA WILL GENERATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADE WIND FLOW UNTIL MID WEEK. GENERALLY GOOD MOISTURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALSO CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN A BOX BOUNDED BY 50
AND 60 WEST LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE UNTIL THURSDAY.
LATER THIS WEEK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD
SOUTH INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. LOOK FOR GENERALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE SEEN ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS EXCEPT IN THE SHADOW OF PUERTO RICO GENERATED BY THE EAST
NORTHEAST FLOW. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MADE IT INLAND ON THE
COASTS AROUND PUERTO RICO FROM DORADO AND SAN JUAN THROUGH FAJARDO
AND YABUCOA. A FEW SHOWERS WERE ALSO SEEN IN PARTS OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. RELATIVELY GOOD MOISTURE AROUND 1.7 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND MINUS 5 TO MINUS
6 WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO IN MUCH THE SAME AREAS AS
YESTERDAY WITH LITTLE EXPECTED ON THE NORTH COAST AND HEAVY RAINS
AT TIMES IN THE WESTERN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. SOME
STREAMERS MAY ALSO BE GENERATED DOWNWIND FROM THE THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. CURRENTLY THE GFS KEEPS THE MOISTURE AT THESE ABUNDANT
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS VEERING VERY SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE
EAST. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE INTERIOR THROUGH TOMORROW. WIND FLOW BEGINS TO VEER DEVELOPING
A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THAT SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES ON THE
NORTH COAST BY SEVERAL DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE
LEVELS DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT MUCH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY THEN AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURNS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND SHOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA 2 TO
4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE PEAK OF THE WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD
EXCEPT AS FOLLOWS. PSBL VCSH ACROSS TJSJ/TIST/TISX FROM 20/09Z-20/16Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO
8-12 KTS FM THE EAST AFT 20/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR BETWEEN 20/18-22Z CREATING
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ WITH BRIEF MVFR.
ALSO...VCTS PSBL AT TJSJ AND TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ONE MORE BURST OF SWELL FROM THE NORTH NORTH EAST
ON TUESDAY OF UP 3 TO 4 FEET. WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE OVER
THE WEEK BUT WILL BECOME MORE EAST SOUTHEAST AFTER TUESDAY. NO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  77  88  77 /  30  30  30  30
STT  89  78  87  77 /  40  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/12







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200348 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1148 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...SOME SHOWERS MOVING ONTO NORTH AND EAST COASTS OF PUERTO
RICO AND GROWING IN THE WATERS AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THEREFORE HAVE BUMPED POPS UP THERE. NO CHANGES TO REST OF
DISCUSSION.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014/

UPDATE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO. THESE
SHOWERS MOVED SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MUNICIPALITIES OF
PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WERE BETWEEN TWO TO THREE
INCHES IN SOME AREAS. SOME RAPID RISES IN RIVERS WERE NOTED MAINLY
ALONG RIO GRANDE DE ARECIBO AND RIO GUANAJIBO IN HORMIGUEROS. MOST
ACTIVITY DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING 8-15 KTS FM THE EAST AFTER
20/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR
BETWEEN 20/18-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN
OBSCD...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. ALSO...VCSH POSSIBLE AT TJSJ AND
TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WAS CANCELED AS BUOY 41043 LOCATED
AROUND 180 MILES NORTH OF SAN JUAN SHOWED SEAS OF AROUND 6 FEET.
SWELL ACTION WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5 FEET
AND WINDS UP TO 13 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES JUST NORTH OF PR WILL DRIFT EAST
NEXT 24 HRS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD
MON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ON MON BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ATTM. EXPECTING A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
OF T-STORMS ON MON. NEXT S/W TROUGH ENTERING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PR TUE...HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH IS LIKELY TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES AND WARMING ALOFT ARE FCST FOR WED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENING.
CONVECTION MAY NOT DEVELOP AT ALL WED AND THU DUE TO STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION AND VERY DRY AIR. MODELS ALSO SHOW LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
RISING WED THROUGH SUN WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING AT THE SFC. WE
COULD EASILY BE LOOKING AT RECORD HIGHS ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

AVIATION...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT TJMZ WITH TSRA. OTHERWISE...VFR
AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.

MARINE...TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KT THE ENTIRE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD.
NORTH SWELLS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND THAT TREND IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT A
MIX OF SMALL LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS AND EASTERLY WIND WAVES OVR
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  77  88 /  30  30   0  10
STT  79  88  77  87 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/12








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200348 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1148 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...SOME SHOWERS MOVING ONTO NORTH AND EAST COASTS OF PUERTO
RICO AND GROWING IN THE WATERS AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THEREFORE HAVE BUMPED POPS UP THERE. NO CHANGES TO REST OF
DISCUSSION.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014/

UPDATE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO. THESE
SHOWERS MOVED SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MUNICIPALITIES OF
PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WERE BETWEEN TWO TO THREE
INCHES IN SOME AREAS. SOME RAPID RISES IN RIVERS WERE NOTED MAINLY
ALONG RIO GRANDE DE ARECIBO AND RIO GUANAJIBO IN HORMIGUEROS. MOST
ACTIVITY DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING 8-15 KTS FM THE EAST AFTER
20/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR
BETWEEN 20/18-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN
OBSCD...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. ALSO...VCSH POSSIBLE AT TJSJ AND
TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WAS CANCELED AS BUOY 41043 LOCATED
AROUND 180 MILES NORTH OF SAN JUAN SHOWED SEAS OF AROUND 6 FEET.
SWELL ACTION WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5 FEET
AND WINDS UP TO 13 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES JUST NORTH OF PR WILL DRIFT EAST
NEXT 24 HRS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD
MON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ON MON BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ATTM. EXPECTING A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
OF T-STORMS ON MON. NEXT S/W TROUGH ENTERING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PR TUE...HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH IS LIKELY TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES AND WARMING ALOFT ARE FCST FOR WED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENING.
CONVECTION MAY NOT DEVELOP AT ALL WED AND THU DUE TO STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION AND VERY DRY AIR. MODELS ALSO SHOW LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
RISING WED THROUGH SUN WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING AT THE SFC. WE
COULD EASILY BE LOOKING AT RECORD HIGHS ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

AVIATION...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT TJMZ WITH TSRA. OTHERWISE...VFR
AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.

MARINE...TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KT THE ENTIRE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD.
NORTH SWELLS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND THAT TREND IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT A
MIX OF SMALL LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS AND EASTERLY WIND WAVES OVR
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  77  88 /  30  30   0  10
STT  79  88  77  87 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/12







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200137
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
937 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO. THESE
SHOWERS MOVED SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MUNICIPALITIES OF
PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WERE BETWEEN TWO TO THREE
INCHES IN SOME AREAS. SOME RAPID RISES IN RIVERS WERE NOTED MAINLY
ALONG RIO GRANDE DE ARECIBO AND RIO GUANAJIBO IN HORMIGUEROS. MOST
ACTIVITY DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING 8-15 KTS FM THE EAST AFTER
20/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR
BETWEEN 20/18-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN
OBSCD...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. ALSO...VCSH POSSIBLE AT TJSJ AND
TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WAS CANCELLED AS BUOY 41043 LOCATED
AROUND 180 MILES NORTH OF SAN JUAN SHOWED SEAS OF AROUND 6 FEET.
SWELL ACTION WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5 FEET
AND WINDS UP TO 13 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES JUST NORTH OF PR WILL DRIFT EAST
NEXT 24 HRS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD
MON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ON MON BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ATTM. EXPECTING A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
OF T-STORMS ON MON. NEXT S/W TROUGH ENTERING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PR TUE...HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH IS LIKELY TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES AND WARMING ALOFT ARE FCST FOR WED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENING.
CONVECTION MAY NOT DEVELOP AT ALL WED AND THU DUE TO STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION AND VERY DRY AIR. MODELS ALSO SHOW LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
RISING WED THROUGH SUN WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING AT THE SFC. WE
COULD EASILY BE LOOKING AT RECORD HIGHS ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

AVIATION...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT JMZ WITH TSRA. OTHERWISE...VFR
AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.

MARINE...TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KT THE ENTIRE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD.
NORTH SWELLS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND THAT TREND IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT A
MIX OF SMALL LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS AND EASTERLY WIND WAVES OVR
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  77  88 /   0  10   0  10
STT  79  88  77  87 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/71











000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200137
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
937 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO. THESE
SHOWERS MOVED SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MUNICIPALITIES OF
PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WERE BETWEEN TWO TO THREE
INCHES IN SOME AREAS. SOME RAPID RISES IN RIVERS WERE NOTED MAINLY
ALONG RIO GRANDE DE ARECIBO AND RIO GUANAJIBO IN HORMIGUEROS. MOST
ACTIVITY DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING 8-15 KTS FM THE EAST AFTER
20/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR
BETWEEN 20/18-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN
OBSCD...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. ALSO...VCSH POSSIBLE AT TJSJ AND
TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WAS CANCELLED AS BUOY 41043 LOCATED
AROUND 180 MILES NORTH OF SAN JUAN SHOWED SEAS OF AROUND 6 FEET.
SWELL ACTION WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5 FEET
AND WINDS UP TO 13 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES JUST NORTH OF PR WILL DRIFT EAST
NEXT 24 HRS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD
MON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ON MON BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ATTM. EXPECTING A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
OF T-STORMS ON MON. NEXT S/W TROUGH ENTERING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PR TUE...HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH IS LIKELY TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES AND WARMING ALOFT ARE FCST FOR WED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENING.
CONVECTION MAY NOT DEVELOP AT ALL WED AND THU DUE TO STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION AND VERY DRY AIR. MODELS ALSO SHOW LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
RISING WED THROUGH SUN WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING AT THE SFC. WE
COULD EASILY BE LOOKING AT RECORD HIGHS ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

AVIATION...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT JMZ WITH TSRA. OTHERWISE...VFR
AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.

MARINE...TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KT THE ENTIRE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD.
NORTH SWELLS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND THAT TREND IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT A
MIX OF SMALL LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS AND EASTERLY WIND WAVES OVR
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  77  88 /   0  10   0  10
STT  79  88  77  87 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/71










000
FXCA62 TJSJ 191823
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
223 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES JUST NORTH OF PR WILL DRIFT EAST
NEXT 24 HRS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD
MON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ON MON BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ATTM. EXPECTING A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
OF T-STORMS ON MON. NEXT S/W TROUGH ENTERING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PR TUE...HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH IS LIKELY TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES AND WARMING ALOFT ARE FCST FOR WED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENING.
CONVECTION MAY NOT DEVELOP AT ALL WED AND THU DUE TO STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION AND VERY DRY AIR. MODELS ALSO SHOW LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
RISING WED THROUGH SUN WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING AT THE SFC. WE
COULD EASILY BE LOOKING AT RECORD HIGHS ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT JMZ WITH TSRA. OTHERWISE...VFR
AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KT THE ENTIRE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD.
NORTH SWELLS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND THAT TREND IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT A
MIX OF SMALL LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS AND EASTERLY WIND WAVES OVR
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  77  88 /   0  10   0  10
STT  79  88  77  87 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

11/64










000
FXCA62 TJSJ 191823
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
223 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES JUST NORTH OF PR WILL DRIFT EAST
NEXT 24 HRS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD
MON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ON MON BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ATTM. EXPECTING A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
OF T-STORMS ON MON. NEXT S/W TROUGH ENTERING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PR TUE...HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH IS LIKELY TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES AND WARMING ALOFT ARE FCST FOR WED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENING.
CONVECTION MAY NOT DEVELOP AT ALL WED AND THU DUE TO STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION AND VERY DRY AIR. MODELS ALSO SHOW LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
RISING WED THROUGH SUN WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING AT THE SFC. WE
COULD EASILY BE LOOKING AT RECORD HIGHS ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT JMZ WITH TSRA. OTHERWISE...VFR
AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KT THE ENTIRE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD.
NORTH SWELLS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND THAT TREND IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT A
MIX OF SMALL LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS AND EASTERLY WIND WAVES OVR
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  77  88 /   0  10   0  10
STT  79  88  77  87 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

11/64









000
FXCA62 TJSJ 191612
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1212 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST
GRIDS THIS MORNING. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO
THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL ASSESSMENT TOOLS SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMP AT 500 MB AND RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVEL
INDUCED BY THE TROUGH ALOFT MAY HELP TO FORM SMALL HAIL INSIDE OF THE
STRONGEST STORMS. THEREFORE...SMALL HAIL CAN ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
SPOTS OF THE WESTERN THIRD OF PR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA LIKELY NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ...BETWEEN 17-21Z AS
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST PR. E TO
ENE LLVL WINDS OF 10 MPH OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH +TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS OF 5-7 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HAS ISSUED FOR AMZ 710 UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER PUERTO RICO WILL
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST...BUT A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL MID WEEK. LATER THIS WEEK
AND OVER THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA OUT OF
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO FORM A RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MID LEVELS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH SOME OF THE
BEST...THOUGH LIMITED...MOISTURE OF THE WEEK OCCURRING LATER TODAY OVER
PUERTO RICO.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN
A BOX BOUNDED BY 50 AND 60 WEST LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH
LATITUDE UNTIL WEEK`S END. OTHERWISE THE LOCAL PATTERN IS
CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER PRESSURE SOUTH AND WEAKLY HIGHER PRESSURES
TO THE NORTH AND IS LITTLE AFFECTED BY OTHER MORE DISTANT
FEATURES. WEAK TROPICAL WAVES WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH LATER
THIS WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND MOVED WEST SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
AMOUNTS WERE LIGHT AND MOST OF THE SHOWERS DID NOT CROSS OVER LAND
IN PUERTO RICO. SOME SHOWERS WERE SEEN CROSSING INTO SAINT CROIX
AND SAINT JOHN AROUND 5 AM AST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS
MEASURED BY SOUNDERS IN PUERTO RICO...SAINT CROIX AND MONTSERRAT
HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY DURING THE NIGHT TO BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8
INCHES...AND THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY THE NEEDED
FUEL IN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO
TODAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LIFTED INDICES ACROSS THE
AREA TO HAVE THE MOST FAVORABLE VALUES TODAY BETWEEN MINUS 5 AND
MINUS 6...INCREASING TO AS MUCH AS MINUS 4 BY WEEKS`S END.
MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY OR DECREASE SLIGHTLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FOLLOW SUIT...BUT
MOISTURE DROPS OFF ABRUPTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND A DISTINCT
DRYING PATTERN IS EXPECTED. MOISTURE WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO RETURN
WHEN...AND ONLY IF...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
WOULD BRING CONSIDERABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. PSBL
MVFR CONDS ACROSS TIST/TISX FROM 19/09Z-19/16Z IN SHRA. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 8-12 KTS FM
THE EAST NORTHEAST AFT 19/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR AS WELL AS DOWNWIND FROM YUNQUE
BETWEEN 19/18-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. ALSO...VCTS PSBL AT
TJSJ AND TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.

MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE GONZALO IS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING AS GONZALO RACES AT AN INCREDIBLE SPEED OF 52 MILES
PER HOUR TO THE NORTHEAST...NOW FAR AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. WITH
LIGHT GRADIENTS AND MODEST WINDS...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT AND BELOW 5 FEET ON MONDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  88  77 /  20  20  20  30
STT  89  79  88  77 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

11/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 191612
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1212 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST
GRIDS THIS MORNING. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO
THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL ASSESSMENT TOOLS SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMP AT 500 MB AND RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVEL
INDUCED BY THE TROUGH ALOFT MAY HELP TO FORM SMALL HAIL INSIDE OF THE
STRONGEST STORMS. THEREFORE...SMALL HAIL CAN ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
SPOTS OF THE WESTERN THIRD OF PR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA LIKELY NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ...BETWEEN 17-21Z AS
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST PR. E TO
ENE LLVL WINDS OF 10 MPH OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH +TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS OF 5-7 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HAS ISSUED FOR AMZ 710 UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER PUERTO RICO WILL
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST...BUT A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL MID WEEK. LATER THIS WEEK
AND OVER THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA OUT OF
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO FORM A RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MID LEVELS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH SOME OF THE
BEST...THOUGH LIMITED...MOISTURE OF THE WEEK OCCURRING LATER TODAY OVER
PUERTO RICO.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN
A BOX BOUNDED BY 50 AND 60 WEST LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH
LATITUDE UNTIL WEEK`S END. OTHERWISE THE LOCAL PATTERN IS
CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER PRESSURE SOUTH AND WEAKLY HIGHER PRESSURES
TO THE NORTH AND IS LITTLE AFFECTED BY OTHER MORE DISTANT
FEATURES. WEAK TROPICAL WAVES WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH LATER
THIS WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND MOVED WEST SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
AMOUNTS WERE LIGHT AND MOST OF THE SHOWERS DID NOT CROSS OVER LAND
IN PUERTO RICO. SOME SHOWERS WERE SEEN CROSSING INTO SAINT CROIX
AND SAINT JOHN AROUND 5 AM AST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS
MEASURED BY SOUNDERS IN PUERTO RICO...SAINT CROIX AND MONTSERRAT
HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY DURING THE NIGHT TO BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8
INCHES...AND THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY THE NEEDED
FUEL IN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO
TODAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LIFTED INDICES ACROSS THE
AREA TO HAVE THE MOST FAVORABLE VALUES TODAY BETWEEN MINUS 5 AND
MINUS 6...INCREASING TO AS MUCH AS MINUS 4 BY WEEKS`S END.
MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY OR DECREASE SLIGHTLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FOLLOW SUIT...BUT
MOISTURE DROPS OFF ABRUPTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND A DISTINCT
DRYING PATTERN IS EXPECTED. MOISTURE WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO RETURN
WHEN...AND ONLY IF...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
WOULD BRING CONSIDERABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. PSBL
MVFR CONDS ACROSS TIST/TISX FROM 19/09Z-19/16Z IN SHRA. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 8-12 KTS FM
THE EAST NORTHEAST AFT 19/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR AS WELL AS DOWNWIND FROM YUNQUE
BETWEEN 19/18-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. ALSO...VCTS PSBL AT
TJSJ AND TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.

MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE GONZALO IS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING AS GONZALO RACES AT AN INCREDIBLE SPEED OF 52 MILES
PER HOUR TO THE NORTHEAST...NOW FAR AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. WITH
LIGHT GRADIENTS AND MODEST WINDS...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT AND BELOW 5 FEET ON MONDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  88  77 /  20  20  20  30
STT  89  79  88  77 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

11/64






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 190928 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER PUERTO RICO WILL
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST...BUT A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL MID WEEK. LATER THIS WEEK
AND OVER THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA OUT OF
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO FORM A RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MID LEVELS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH SOME OF THE
BEST...THOUGH LIMITED...MOISTURE OF THE WEEK OCCURRING LATER TODAY OVER
PUERTO RICO.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN
A BOX BOUNDED BY 50 AND 60 WEST LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH
LATITUDE UNTIL WEEK`S END. OTHERWISE THE LOCAL PATTERN IS
CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER PRESSURE SOUTH AND WEAKLY HIGHER PRESSURES
TO THE NORTH AND IS LITTLE AFFECTED BY OTHER MORE DISTANT
FEATURES. WEAK TROPICAL WAVES WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH LATER
THIS WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND MOVED WEST SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
AMOUNTS WERE LIGHT AND MOST OF THE SHOWERS DID NOT CROSS OVER LAND
IN PUERTO RICO. SOME SHOWERS WERE SEEN CROSSING INTO SAINT CROIX
AND SAINT JOHN AROUND 5 AM AST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS
MEASURED BY SOUNDERS IN PUERTO RICO...SAINT CROIX AND MONTSERRAT
HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY DURING THE NIGHT TO BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8
INCHES...AND THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY THE NEEDED
FUEL IN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO
TODAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LIFTED INDICES ACROSS THE
AREA TO HAVE THE MOST FAVORABLE VALUES TODAY BETWEEN MINUS 5 AND
MINUS 6...INCREASING TO AS MUCH AS MINUS 4 BY WEEKS`S END.
MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY OR DECREASE SLIGHTLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FOLLOW SUIT...BUT
MOISTURE DROPS OFF ABRUPTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND A DISTINCT
DRYING PATTERN IS EXPECTED. MOISTURE WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO RETURN
WHEN...AND ONLY IF...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
WOULD BRING CONSIDERABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. PSBL
MVFR CONDS ACROSS TIST/TISX FROM 19/09Z-19/16Z IN SHRA. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 8-12 KTS FM
THE EAST NORTHEAST AFT 19/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR AS WELL AS DOWNWIND FROM YUNQUE
BETWEEN 19/18-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. ALSO...VCTS PSBL AT
TJSJ AND TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE GONZALO IS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING AS GONZALO RACES AT AN INCREDIBLE SPEED OF 52 MILES
PER HOUR TO THE NORTHEAST...NOW FAR AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. WITH
LIGHT GRADIENTS AND MODEST WINDS...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT AND BELOW 5 FEET ON MONDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  88  77 /  10  20  20  30
STT  89  79  88  77 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/12







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 190928 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER PUERTO RICO WILL
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST...BUT A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL MID WEEK. LATER THIS WEEK
AND OVER THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA OUT OF
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO FORM A RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MID LEVELS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH SOME OF THE
BEST...THOUGH LIMITED...MOISTURE OF THE WEEK OCCURRING LATER TODAY OVER
PUERTO RICO.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN
A BOX BOUNDED BY 50 AND 60 WEST LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH
LATITUDE UNTIL WEEK`S END. OTHERWISE THE LOCAL PATTERN IS
CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER PRESSURE SOUTH AND WEAKLY HIGHER PRESSURES
TO THE NORTH AND IS LITTLE AFFECTED BY OTHER MORE DISTANT
FEATURES. WEAK TROPICAL WAVES WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH LATER
THIS WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND MOVED WEST SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
AMOUNTS WERE LIGHT AND MOST OF THE SHOWERS DID NOT CROSS OVER LAND
IN PUERTO RICO. SOME SHOWERS WERE SEEN CROSSING INTO SAINT CROIX
AND SAINT JOHN AROUND 5 AM AST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS
MEASURED BY SOUNDERS IN PUERTO RICO...SAINT CROIX AND MONTSERRAT
HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY DURING THE NIGHT TO BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8
INCHES...AND THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY THE NEEDED
FUEL IN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO
TODAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LIFTED INDICES ACROSS THE
AREA TO HAVE THE MOST FAVORABLE VALUES TODAY BETWEEN MINUS 5 AND
MINUS 6...INCREASING TO AS MUCH AS MINUS 4 BY WEEKS`S END.
MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY OR DECREASE SLIGHTLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FOLLOW SUIT...BUT
MOISTURE DROPS OFF ABRUPTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND A DISTINCT
DRYING PATTERN IS EXPECTED. MOISTURE WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO RETURN
WHEN...AND ONLY IF...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
WOULD BRING CONSIDERABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. PSBL
MVFR CONDS ACROSS TIST/TISX FROM 19/09Z-19/16Z IN SHRA. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 8-12 KTS FM
THE EAST NORTHEAST AFT 19/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR AS WELL AS DOWNWIND FROM YUNQUE
BETWEEN 19/18-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. ALSO...VCTS PSBL AT
TJSJ AND TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE GONZALO IS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING AS GONZALO RACES AT AN INCREDIBLE SPEED OF 52 MILES
PER HOUR TO THE NORTHEAST...NOW FAR AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. WITH
LIGHT GRADIENTS AND MODEST WINDS...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT AND BELOW 5 FEET ON MONDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  88  77 /  10  20  20  30
STT  89  79  88  77 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 190919
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER PUERTO RICO WILL
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST...BUT A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL MID WEEK. LATER THIS WEEK
AND OVER THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA OUT OF
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO FORM A RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MID LEVELS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH SOME OF THE
BEST...THOUGH LIMITED...MOISTURE OF THE WEEK OCCURRING LATER TODAY OVER
PUERTO RICO.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN
A BOX BOUNDED BY 50 AND 60 WEST LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH
LATITUDE UNTIL WEEK`S END. OTHERWISE THE LOCAL PATTERN IS
CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER PRESSURE SOUTH AND WEAKLY HIGHER PRESSURES
TO THE NORTH AND IS LITTLE AFFECTED OTHER MORE DISTANT FEATURES.
WEAK TROPICAL WAVES WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS WEEK
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND MOVED WEST SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
AMOUNTS WERE LIGHT AND MOST OF THE SHOWERS DID NOT CROSS OVER LAND
IN PUERTO RICO. SOME SHOWERS WERE SEEN CROSSING INTO SAINT CROIX
AND SAINT JOHN AROUND 5 AM AST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS
MEASURED BY SOUNDERS IN PUERTO RICO...SAINT CROIX AND MONTSERRAT
HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY DURING THE NIGHT TO BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8
INCHES...AND THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY THE NEEDED
FUEL IN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO
TODAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LIFTED INDICES ACROSS THE
AREA TO HAVE THE MOST FAVORABLE VALUES TODAY BETWEEN MINUS 5 AND
MINUS 6...INCREASING TO AS MUCH AS MINUS 4 BY WEEKS`S END.
MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY OR DECREASE SLIGHTLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FOLLOW SUIT...BUT
MOISTURE DROPS OFF ABRUPTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND A DISTINCT
DRYING PATTERN IS EXPECTED. MOISTURE WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO RETURN
WHEN...AND ONLY IF...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
WOULD BRING CONSIDERABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. PSBL
MVFR CONDS ACROSS TIST/TISX FROM 19/09Z-19/16Z IN SHRA. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 8-12 KTS FM
THE EAST NORTHEAST AFT 19/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR AS WELL AS DOWNWIND FROM YUNQUE
BETWEEN 19/18-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. ALSO...VCTS PSBL AT
TJSJ AND TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE GONZALO IS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING AS GONZALO RACES AT AN INCREDIBLE SPEED OF 52 MILES
PER HOUR TO THE NORTHEAST...NOW FAR AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. WITH
LIGHT GRADIENTS AND MODEST WINDS...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT AND BELOW 5 FEET ON MONDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  88  77 /  10  20  20  30
STT  89  79  88  77 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/12







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 190919
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER PUERTO RICO WILL
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST...BUT A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL MID WEEK. LATER THIS WEEK
AND OVER THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA OUT OF
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO FORM A RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MID LEVELS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH SOME OF THE
BEST...THOUGH LIMITED...MOISTURE OF THE WEEK OCCURRING LATER TODAY OVER
PUERTO RICO.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN
A BOX BOUNDED BY 50 AND 60 WEST LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH
LATITUDE UNTIL WEEK`S END. OTHERWISE THE LOCAL PATTERN IS
CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER PRESSURE SOUTH AND WEAKLY HIGHER PRESSURES
TO THE NORTH AND IS LITTLE AFFECTED OTHER MORE DISTANT FEATURES.
WEAK TROPICAL WAVES WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS WEEK
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND MOVED WEST SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
AMOUNTS WERE LIGHT AND MOST OF THE SHOWERS DID NOT CROSS OVER LAND
IN PUERTO RICO. SOME SHOWERS WERE SEEN CROSSING INTO SAINT CROIX
AND SAINT JOHN AROUND 5 AM AST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS
MEASURED BY SOUNDERS IN PUERTO RICO...SAINT CROIX AND MONTSERRAT
HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY DURING THE NIGHT TO BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8
INCHES...AND THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY THE NEEDED
FUEL IN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO
TODAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LIFTED INDICES ACROSS THE
AREA TO HAVE THE MOST FAVORABLE VALUES TODAY BETWEEN MINUS 5 AND
MINUS 6...INCREASING TO AS MUCH AS MINUS 4 BY WEEKS`S END.
MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY OR DECREASE SLIGHTLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FOLLOW SUIT...BUT
MOISTURE DROPS OFF ABRUPTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND A DISTINCT
DRYING PATTERN IS EXPECTED. MOISTURE WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO RETURN
WHEN...AND ONLY IF...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
WOULD BRING CONSIDERABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. PSBL
MVFR CONDS ACROSS TIST/TISX FROM 19/09Z-19/16Z IN SHRA. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 8-12 KTS FM
THE EAST NORTHEAST AFT 19/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR AS WELL AS DOWNWIND FROM YUNQUE
BETWEEN 19/18-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. ALSO...VCTS PSBL AT
TJSJ AND TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE GONZALO IS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING AS GONZALO RACES AT AN INCREDIBLE SPEED OF 52 MILES
PER HOUR TO THE NORTHEAST...NOW FAR AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. WITH
LIGHT GRADIENTS AND MODEST WINDS...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT AND BELOW 5 FEET ON MONDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  88  77 /  10  20  20  30
STT  89  79  88  77 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 190247
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1047 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SOME
PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. IN
GENERAL...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION. FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING 8-13 KTS FM THE EAST NORTHEAST
AFTER 19/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE
OF PR BETWEEN 19/18-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN
OBSCD...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. ALSO...VCSH POSSIBLE AT TJSJ AND
TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...BUYO 41043 OBSERVATIONS CONTINUES TO INDICATED NORTH TO
NORTHWEST SWELLS OF AROUND 8 FEET. THESE SWELLS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO SOUTH
AMERICA WILL MOVE INTO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVR THE AREA AND
RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL SUPPORT ISOLD/SCT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION THROUGH THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR.

WED ON...MODELS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT...MID LEVEL
DRYING AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
EXPECT THINGS TO REALLY DRY OUT WED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...POSSIBLE TSRA AT JBQ AND JMZ NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MARINE...WINDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS NEXT FIVE DAYS. SEAS 5-7 FT
TODAY IN NE SWELLS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  78  88 /  10  10   0  10
STT  77  88  79  87 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SUNDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

13/71






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 190247
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1047 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SOME
PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. IN
GENERAL...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION. FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING 8-13 KTS FM THE EAST NORTHEAST
AFTER 19/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE
OF PR BETWEEN 19/18-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN
OBSCD...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. ALSO...VCSH POSSIBLE AT TJSJ AND
TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...BUYO 41043 OBSERVATIONS CONTINUES TO INDICATED NORTH TO
NORTHWEST SWELLS OF AROUND 8 FEET. THESE SWELLS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO SOUTH
AMERICA WILL MOVE INTO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVR THE AREA AND
RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL SUPPORT ISOLD/SCT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION THROUGH THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR.

WED ON...MODELS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT...MID LEVEL
DRYING AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
EXPECT THINGS TO REALLY DRY OUT WED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...POSSIBLE TSRA AT JBQ AND JMZ NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MARINE...WINDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS NEXT FIVE DAYS. SEAS 5-7 FT
TODAY IN NE SWELLS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  78  88 /  10  10   0  10
STT  77  88  79  87 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SUNDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

13/71







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