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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230935
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO
INDUCE A SUBSIDENCE PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...ALLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE
LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION....DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE MOST INTENSE RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF VIEQUES ISLAND...WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES BETWEEN 1.0-1.5 INCHES.
MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER
OFF BY MID-MORNING. THE REST OF TODAY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL
WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE
MOISTURE TRAP AT LOW LEVELS...RESULTING IN MAINLY SHALLOW
CONVECTION...IF ANY. THEN...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. MOISTURE WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER LOOKS
LIKE THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS JUST SOUTH OF PR/USVI. IN
ADDITION...UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT GENERATED BY THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL ALSO TEND TO DIMINISH THE IMPACT OF THE WAVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. IN GENERAL...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS PR/USVI THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TO LIKELY LIMIT TO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE VCTS NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 17Z-21Z.
EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 5-15 KT CAN BE EXPECTED BELOW 10K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PULSES OF A SMALL
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
AND PASSAGES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  77  89  76 /  20  40  40   0
STT  88  78  88  79 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

71/11







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230154 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
952 PM AST WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO SHORT TERM GRIDS TO
MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. OVERALL...FORECAST PACKAGE ON TRACK.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN
HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TOMORROW AS THE DRIEST DAY OF THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS. AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND BULK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. A
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PASSING -SHRA OVERNIGHT. POSSIBLE VCTS ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER
23/18Z. TJSJ 23/00Z INDICATED A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND FLOW ALL THE
WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 20K FEET...BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY
AND STRONGER FROM 20-40K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM AST WED OCT 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...A TUTT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND INTO THE MONA PASSAGE.
THE BUILDING RIDGE IS TO CONTINUE BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE WEAKENING. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER TROUGH
IS TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS A TUTT LOW FORMS
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN EAST OF THE LOCAL REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT FURTHER NORTHEAST AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH MOVE EASTWARDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 56W IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE THURSDAY THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

DISCUSSION...LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...MILD SUBSIDENCE AND
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT HAS SO FAR AIDED IN SUPPRESSING
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS. EXPECT INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND SLOT OF DRIER AIR TO BE FILTERED IN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOST FAIR WEATHER
SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS AND DIURNAL CONVECTION
LIMITED TO MAINLY THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
AND SOME OF THE ADJACENT ISLANDS.

THE TROPICAL WAVE AND MAJORITY OF ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE IS STILL
FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AS SUBSIDENCE AND CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT INCREASES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT/SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AS THE WAVE PASSES BUT SO FAR NO
SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS SUGGEST RETURN OF EASTERLY
TRADES WITH TYPICAL PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST INCREASING PWAT VALUES AND BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE. UNTIL THEN...LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH
POSSIBLE VCTS ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ TIL 22/23Z. SFC WINDS PREVAILING
FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS UNTIL 22/23Z...WINDS
DECREASING OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PASSING -SHRA OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  90  76  88 /  10  20  40  40
STT  77  89  78  88 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/23







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230154 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
952 PM AST WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO SHORT TERM GRIDS TO
MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. OVERALL...FORECAST PACKAGE ON TRACK.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN
HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TOMORROW AS THE DRIEST DAY OF THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS. AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND BULK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. A
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PASSING -SHRA OVERNIGHT. POSSIBLE VCTS ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER
23/18Z. TJSJ 23/00Z INDICATED A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND FLOW ALL THE
WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 20K FEET...BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY
AND STRONGER FROM 20-40K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM AST WED OCT 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...A TUTT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND INTO THE MONA PASSAGE.
THE BUILDING RIDGE IS TO CONTINUE BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE WEAKENING. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER TROUGH
IS TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS A TUTT LOW FORMS
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN EAST OF THE LOCAL REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT FURTHER NORTHEAST AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH MOVE EASTWARDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 56W IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE THURSDAY THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

DISCUSSION...LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...MILD SUBSIDENCE AND
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT HAS SO FAR AIDED IN SUPPRESSING
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS. EXPECT INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND SLOT OF DRIER AIR TO BE FILTERED IN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOST FAIR WEATHER
SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS AND DIURNAL CONVECTION
LIMITED TO MAINLY THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
AND SOME OF THE ADJACENT ISLANDS.

THE TROPICAL WAVE AND MAJORITY OF ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE IS STILL
FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AS SUBSIDENCE AND CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT INCREASES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT/SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AS THE WAVE PASSES BUT SO FAR NO
SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS SUGGEST RETURN OF EASTERLY
TRADES WITH TYPICAL PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST INCREASING PWAT VALUES AND BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE. UNTIL THEN...LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH
POSSIBLE VCTS ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ TIL 22/23Z. SFC WINDS PREVAILING
FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS UNTIL 22/23Z...WINDS
DECREASING OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PASSING -SHRA OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  90  76  88 /  10  20  40  40
STT  77  89  78  88 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/23







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230141
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
941 PM AST WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO SHORT TERM GRIDS TO
MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. OVERALL...FORECAST PACKAGE ON TRACK.

A GENERAL FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN
HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TOMORROW AS THE DRIEST DAY OF THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS. AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND BULK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. A
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PASSING -SHRA OVERNIGHT. POSSIBLE VCTS ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER
23/18Z. TJSJ 23/00Z INDICATED A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND FLOW ALL THE
WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 20K FEET...BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY
AND STRONGER FROM 20-40K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM AST WED OCT 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...A TUTT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND INTO THE MONA PASSAGE.
THE BUILDING RIDGE IS TO CONTINUE BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE WEAKENING. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER TROUGH
IS TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS A TUTT LOW FORMS
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN EAST OF THE LOCAL REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT FURTHER NORTHEAST AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH MOVE EASTWARDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 56W IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE THURSDAY THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

DISCUSSION...LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...MILD SUBSIDENCE AND
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT HAS SO FAR AIDED IN SUPPRESSING
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS. EXPECT INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND SLOT OF DRIER AIR TO BE FILTERED IN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOST FAIR WEATHER
SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS AND DIURNAL CONVECTION
LIMITED TO MAINLY THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
AND SOME OF THE ADJACENT ISLANDS.

THE TROPICAL WAVE AND MAJORITY OF ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE IS STILL
FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AS SUBSIDENCE AND CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT INCREASES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT/SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AS THE WAVE PASSES BUT SO FAR NO
SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS SUGGEST RETURN OF EASTERLY
TRADES WITH TYPICAL PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST INCREASING PWAT VALUES AND BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE. UNTIL THEN...LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH
POSSIBLE VCTS ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ TIL 22/23Z. SFC WINDS PREVAILING
FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS UNTIL 22/23Z...WINDS
DECREASING OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PASSING -SHRA OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  90  76  88 /  10  20  40  40
STT  77  89  78  88 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/23







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230141
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
941 PM AST WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO SHORT TERM GRIDS TO
MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. OVERALL...FORECAST PACKAGE ON TRACK.

A GENERAL FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN
HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TOMORROW AS THE DRIEST DAY OF THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS. AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND BULK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. A
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PASSING -SHRA OVERNIGHT. POSSIBLE VCTS ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER
23/18Z. TJSJ 23/00Z INDICATED A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND FLOW ALL THE
WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 20K FEET...BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY
AND STRONGER FROM 20-40K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM AST WED OCT 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...A TUTT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND INTO THE MONA PASSAGE.
THE BUILDING RIDGE IS TO CONTINUE BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE WEAKENING. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER TROUGH
IS TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS A TUTT LOW FORMS
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN EAST OF THE LOCAL REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT FURTHER NORTHEAST AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH MOVE EASTWARDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 56W IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE THURSDAY THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

DISCUSSION...LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...MILD SUBSIDENCE AND
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT HAS SO FAR AIDED IN SUPPRESSING
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS. EXPECT INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND SLOT OF DRIER AIR TO BE FILTERED IN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOST FAIR WEATHER
SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS AND DIURNAL CONVECTION
LIMITED TO MAINLY THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
AND SOME OF THE ADJACENT ISLANDS.

THE TROPICAL WAVE AND MAJORITY OF ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE IS STILL
FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AS SUBSIDENCE AND CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT INCREASES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT/SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AS THE WAVE PASSES BUT SO FAR NO
SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS SUGGEST RETURN OF EASTERLY
TRADES WITH TYPICAL PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST INCREASING PWAT VALUES AND BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE. UNTIL THEN...LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH
POSSIBLE VCTS ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ TIL 22/23Z. SFC WINDS PREVAILING
FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS UNTIL 22/23Z...WINDS
DECREASING OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PASSING -SHRA OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  90  76  88 /  10  20  40  40
STT  77  89  78  88 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/23







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 221924
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
324 PM AST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND INTO THE MONA PASSAGE.
THE BUILDING RIDGE IS TO CONTINUE BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE WEAKENING. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER TROUGH
IS TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS A TUTT LOW FORMS
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN EAST OF THE LOCAL REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT FURTHER NORTHEAST AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH MOVE EASTWARDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 56W IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE THURSDAY THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...MILD SUBSIDENCE AND
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT HAS SO FAR AIDED IN SUPPRESSING
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS. EXPECT INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND SLOT OF DRIER AIR TO BE FILTERED IN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOST FAIR WEATHER
SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS AND DIURNAL CONVECTION
LIMITED TO MAINLY THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
AND SOME OF THE ADJACENT ISLANDS.

THE TROPICAL WAVE AND MAJORITY OF ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE IS STILL
FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AS SUBSIDENCE AND CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT INCREASES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT/SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AS THE WAVE PASSES BUT SO FAR NO
SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS SUGGEST RETURN OF EASTERLY
TRADES WITH TYPICAL PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST INCREASING PWAT VALUES AND BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE. UNTIL THEN...LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH
POSSIBLE VCTS ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ TIL 22/23Z. SFC WINDS PREVAILING
FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS UNTIL 22/23Z...WINDS
DECREASING OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PASSING -SHRA OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  90  76  88 /  10  20  40  40
STT  77  89  78  88 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/09







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 221535
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1135 AM AST WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. LATEST
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST. THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
WEST AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDINESS INCREASING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING...CAUSING CLOUDS TO STREAM OFF THE
USVI...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. HOWEVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR SHOULD DEVELOP CLOUDINESS JUST AROUND NOON...AS THE
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ALSO PLAYS A ROLE. OTHER THAN THAT...ONLY
PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.


&&

.AVIATION...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. VCTS FOR TJBQ AND
TJMZ IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUPS NOT PRESENT AT THIS TIME DUE
TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION...BUT TSRA IS
EXPECTED IN THE AREA. ALSO...CURRENT WEATHER IS CONDUCIVE FOR FAIR
WEATHER WATERSPOUTS IN THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. WX CONDS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE THIS EVENING. CURRENT WINDS PREVAILING FROM THE EAST TO
E-SE AT 10-15 KTS...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT TO 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM AST WED OCT 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SOUTHWEST INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE
EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH
ALOFT EAST OF THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO
FAVOR A SUBSIDENCE PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
REGION ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

DISCUSSION...TROUGHINESS ALOFT JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
HAS ENHANCED THE TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS SINCE MIDNIGHT. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS UPPER
TROUGH SETTLES OVER LEEWARD ISLANDS. GFS ENSEMBLE SUGGEST THAT THE
OVERALL MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THIS RIDGE
WILL INDUCE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS...
ALLOWING THE GRADUAL EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MOSTLY SHALLOW UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE.

THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 56 WEST THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO ENTER
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT INDUCED BY THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION AFFECTING
THE LOCAL REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST
GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. IN GENERAL...
FAIR WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE VCTS NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 17Z-21Z.
EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 5-15 KT CAN BE EXPECTED BELOW 10K FEET.

MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PULSES OF A SMALL
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
AND PASSAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  77  92  77 /  20  10  20  40
STT  88  78  89  79 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/09







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 221535
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1135 AM AST WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. LATEST
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST. THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
WEST AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDINESS INCREASING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING...CAUSING CLOUDS TO STREAM OFF THE
USVI...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. HOWEVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR SHOULD DEVELOP CLOUDINESS JUST AROUND NOON...AS THE
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ALSO PLAYS A ROLE. OTHER THAN THAT...ONLY
PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.


&&

.AVIATION...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. VCTS FOR TJBQ AND
TJMZ IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUPS NOT PRESENT AT THIS TIME DUE
TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION...BUT TSRA IS
EXPECTED IN THE AREA. ALSO...CURRENT WEATHER IS CONDUCIVE FOR FAIR
WEATHER WATERSPOUTS IN THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. WX CONDS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE THIS EVENING. CURRENT WINDS PREVAILING FROM THE EAST TO
E-SE AT 10-15 KTS...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT TO 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM AST WED OCT 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SOUTHWEST INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE
EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH
ALOFT EAST OF THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO
FAVOR A SUBSIDENCE PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
REGION ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

DISCUSSION...TROUGHINESS ALOFT JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
HAS ENHANCED THE TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS SINCE MIDNIGHT. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS UPPER
TROUGH SETTLES OVER LEEWARD ISLANDS. GFS ENSEMBLE SUGGEST THAT THE
OVERALL MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THIS RIDGE
WILL INDUCE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS...
ALLOWING THE GRADUAL EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MOSTLY SHALLOW UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE.

THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 56 WEST THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO ENTER
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT INDUCED BY THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION AFFECTING
THE LOCAL REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST
GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. IN GENERAL...
FAIR WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE VCTS NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 17Z-21Z.
EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 5-15 KT CAN BE EXPECTED BELOW 10K FEET.

MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PULSES OF A SMALL
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
AND PASSAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  77  92  77 /  20  10  20  40
STT  88  78  89  79 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/09







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 220908
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SOUTHWEST INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE
EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH
ALOFT EAST OF THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO
FAVOR A SUBSIDENCE PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
REGION ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROUGHINESS ALOFT JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
HAS ENHANCED THE TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS SINCE MIDNIGHT. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS UPPER
TROUGH SETTLES OVER LEEWARD ISLANDS. GFS ENSEMBLE SUGGEST THAT THE
OVERALL MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THIS RIDGE
WILL INDUCE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS...
ALLOWING THE GRADUAL EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MOSTLY SHALLOW UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE.

THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 56 WEST THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO ENTER
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT INDUCED BY THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION AFFECTING
THE LOCAL REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST
GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. IN GENERAL...
FAIR WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE VCTS NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 17Z-21Z.
EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 5-15 KT CAN BE EXPECTED BELOW 10K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PULSES OF A SMALL
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
AND PASSAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  77  92  77 /  20  10  20  40
STT  88  78  89  79 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

71/11







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 220139
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
939 PM AST TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FROM THE WEST AS TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH ITS AXIS ESTABLISHING SOUTHEAST OF LOCAL
ISLANDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AT MID AND LOW LEVELS...MID LEVEL
RIDGE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 54W MOVING MAINLY SOUTH OF LOCAL AREA
FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH UNDER THIS EVOLVING PATTERN THERE IS A LACK OF DYNAMICS...
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO RESULT IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. BEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE. HOWEVER...BULK OF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS. MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED
TO FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD
WITH POSSIBLE VCSH ACROSS TNCM/TKPK/TJSJ. TJSJ 22/00Z SOUNDING
INDICATED A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 10K
FEET...BECOMING VARIABLE BUT STILL LIGHT FROM 10-35K FEET AND
STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS. SWELL
ACTION DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM AST TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDED
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE WEAKENING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
SLOWLY RETROGRESS INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NOW NEAR 52 WEST AND WEST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES BY LATE. THIS WAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH
THE BROAD EQUATORIAL TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

DISCUSSION...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PRODUCT CONTINUED TO SUGGEST DECREASING PWAT VALUES NOW
RANGING BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.70 INCHES. HOWEVER....STILL SUFFICIENT
POCKETS OF MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS TO COMBINE WITH
DIURNAL AND LOCAL EFFECTS ALONG WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ACTIVITY SHOULD
HOWEVER DIMINISH BY SUNSET LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY SKIES.

OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...DECREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG
WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL INCREASE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND HELP TO SUPPRESS AND LIMIT DAYTIME CONVECTION EACH DAY.
HOWEVER SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE NEXT FEATURE FORECAST TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE TO THE REGION WILL
BE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE. THIS FEATURE WILL INTERACT
WITH A TUTT WHICH WILL RETROGRESS WESTWARD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...
AND ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...PRESENT SCENARIO
SUGGEST THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE SHOULD MOVE
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE DOMINANT RIDGE ALOFT IS TO SUPPRESS
ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS
WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY
TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AVIATION...AFTER SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN PR. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE VCSH
ACROSS TNCM/TKPK/TJSJ. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...BUOYS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST 3 TO 4 FEET NORTHERLY
SWELL AT 11-14 SECONDS TODAY. HOWEVER THE SWELL ACTION WILL
CONTINUE TO FADE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS 14 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS DURING THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  89  76  88 /  20  20  10  20
STT  77  89  79  88 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/23







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 211911
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
311 PM AST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDED
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE WEAKENING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
SLOWLY RETROGRESS INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NOW NEAR 52 WEST AND WEST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES BY LATE. THIS WAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH
THE BROAD EQUATORIAL TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PRODUCT CONTINUED TO SUGGEST DECREASING PWAT VALUES NOW
RANGING BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.70 INCHES. HOWEVER....STILL SUFFICIENT
POCKETS OF MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS TO COMBINE WITH
DIURNAL AND LOCAL EFFECTS ALONG WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ACTIVITY SHOULD
HOWEVER DIMINISH BY SUNSET LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY SKIES.

OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...DECREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG
WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL INCREASE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND HELP TO SUPPRESS AND LIMIT DAYTIME CONVECTION EACH DAY.
HOWEVER SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE NEXT FEATURE FORECAST TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE TO THE REGION WILL
BE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE. THIS FEATURE WILL INTERACT
WITH A TUTT WHICH WILL RETROGRESS WESTWARD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...
AND ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...PRESENT SCENARIO
SUGGEST THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE SHOULD MOVE
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE DOMINANT RIDGE ALOFT IS TO SUPPRESS
ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS
WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY
TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTER SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN PR. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE VCSH
ACROSS TNCM/TKPK/TJSJ. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST 3 TO 4 FEET NORTHERLY
SWELL AT 11-14 SECONDS TODAY. HOWEVER THE SWELL ACTION WILL
CONTINUE TO FADE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS 14 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS DURING THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  89  76  88 /  30  30  10  20
STT  77  89  79  88 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

13/09







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 211434
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1034 AM AST TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES MADE TO SHORT TERM GRIDS. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS ALL LOCAL ISLANDS
THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS REACHED PORTIONS OF
EASTERN PR AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE
NOT SIGNIFICANT. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...STREAMERS FORMING OVER
THE USVI...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA WILL CREATE PERIODS OF SHOWERS OVER
THE SURROUNDING WATERS WITH A FEW OF THEM REACHING EASTERN PR.
THEN...AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL WILL BRING
AGAIN PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN QUADRANT OF PR.

&&

.AVIATION...ADDED TEMPO GROUPS TO TJBQ AND TJMZ AS AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SHOULD FOCUS OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF PR. THE 21/12Z
TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW WITH 15 KT
WINDS BETWEEN 1-5 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF PUERTO RICO ARE STILL
INDICATING A 3-4 FEET NORTH SWELL AT 11-14 SECONDS. HAZARDOUS RIP
CURRENTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE REST OF THE DAY. NO CHANGES
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM AST TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY NORTH FLOW OVER THE AREA AND RIDGING
NORTH OF THE AREA THAT CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM A LOW IN THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL DISPLACE
THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH AFTER A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND
CUT-OFF LOW MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE
AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND
HIGHER PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA CONTINUE. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALSO CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN A BOX BOUNDED BY 50 AND 60 WEST
LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE UNTIL THURSDAY. EAST
SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND WHILE LOW PRESSURES DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH.

DISCUSSION...A SIMILAR SITUATION TO YESTERDAY ABIDES AGAIN TODAY
WITH SMALL SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MOVING IN THE EAST
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW AND A SMATTERING OF SMALL SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN AND
EASTERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO. AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO HUNDREDTHS
HAVE BEEN NOTED WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN OVER THE AREA TODAY...A WEAK
SHORT WAVE THIS AFTERNOON AND LIFTED INDICES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN...TO INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO WHERE URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE NOTED ELSEWHERE. NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER AIR AT LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL REDUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ADDED
SUNSHINE AND THE SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S IN THE SAN JUAN GREATER
METROPOLITAN AREA AND KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS ON THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS.

THEN...ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND SHOWERS WILL
RETURN IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...MAINLY TO NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO
AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. SLIGHTLY DRIER DAYS WILL
BEGIN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND LAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AFTER
A TROUGH AT UPPER LEVELS PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND BETTER
CONDITIONS ARE FOUND IN ITS NORTHEAST QUADRANT.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.
WINDS INCREASE TO 8-15 KTS FM THE EAST AFT 21/13Z WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS. VCSH PSBL AT TJSJ/TISX/TIST TIL EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR BETWEEN 21/17-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDS
AND MTN OBSCURATIONS... IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ TAF SITES.

MARINE...GENERALLY DIMINISHING SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND WAVES FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL INCREASE IN BOTH
THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  78  90  77 /  30  30  30  10
STT  88  79  88  79 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/09






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 211434
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1034 AM AST TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES MADE TO SHORT TERM GRIDS. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS ALL LOCAL ISLANDS
THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS REACHED PORTIONS OF
EASTERN PR AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE
NOT SIGNIFICANT. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...STREAMERS FORMING OVER
THE USVI...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA WILL CREATE PERIODS OF SHOWERS OVER
THE SURROUNDING WATERS WITH A FEW OF THEM REACHING EASTERN PR.
THEN...AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL WILL BRING
AGAIN PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN QUADRANT OF PR.

&&

.AVIATION...ADDED TEMPO GROUPS TO TJBQ AND TJMZ AS AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SHOULD FOCUS OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF PR. THE 21/12Z
TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW WITH 15 KT
WINDS BETWEEN 1-5 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF PUERTO RICO ARE STILL
INDICATING A 3-4 FEET NORTH SWELL AT 11-14 SECONDS. HAZARDOUS RIP
CURRENTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE REST OF THE DAY. NO CHANGES
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM AST TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY NORTH FLOW OVER THE AREA AND RIDGING
NORTH OF THE AREA THAT CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM A LOW IN THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL DISPLACE
THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH AFTER A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND
CUT-OFF LOW MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE
AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND
HIGHER PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA CONTINUE. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALSO CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN A BOX BOUNDED BY 50 AND 60 WEST
LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE UNTIL THURSDAY. EAST
SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND WHILE LOW PRESSURES DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH.

DISCUSSION...A SIMILAR SITUATION TO YESTERDAY ABIDES AGAIN TODAY
WITH SMALL SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MOVING IN THE EAST
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW AND A SMATTERING OF SMALL SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN AND
EASTERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO. AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO HUNDREDTHS
HAVE BEEN NOTED WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN OVER THE AREA TODAY...A WEAK
SHORT WAVE THIS AFTERNOON AND LIFTED INDICES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN...TO INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO WHERE URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE NOTED ELSEWHERE. NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER AIR AT LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL REDUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ADDED
SUNSHINE AND THE SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S IN THE SAN JUAN GREATER
METROPOLITAN AREA AND KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS ON THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS.

THEN...ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND SHOWERS WILL
RETURN IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...MAINLY TO NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO
AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. SLIGHTLY DRIER DAYS WILL
BEGIN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND LAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AFTER
A TROUGH AT UPPER LEVELS PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND BETTER
CONDITIONS ARE FOUND IN ITS NORTHEAST QUADRANT.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.
WINDS INCREASE TO 8-15 KTS FM THE EAST AFT 21/13Z WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS. VCSH PSBL AT TJSJ/TISX/TIST TIL EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR BETWEEN 21/17-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDS
AND MTN OBSCURATIONS... IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ TAF SITES.

MARINE...GENERALLY DIMINISHING SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND WAVES FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL INCREASE IN BOTH
THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  78  90  77 /  30  30  30  10
STT  88  79  88  79 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/09







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 210953
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
553 AM AST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY NORTH FLOW OVER THE AREA AND RIDGING
NORTH OF THE AREA THAT CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM A LOW IN THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL DISPLACE
THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH AFTER A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND
CUT-OFF LOW MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE
AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND
HIGHER PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA CONTINUE. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALSO CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN A BOX BOUNDED BY 50 AND 60 WEST
LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE UNTIL THURSDAY. EAST
SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND WHILE LOW PRESSURES DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SIMILAR SITUATION TO YESTERDAY ABIDES AGAIN TODAY
WITH SMALL SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MOVING IN THE EAST
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW AND A SMATTERING OF SMALL SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN AND
EASTERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO. AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO HUNDREDTHS
HAVE BEEN NOTED WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN OVER THE AREA TODAY...A WEAK
SHORT WAVE THIS AFTERNOON AND LIFTED INDICES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN...TO INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO WHERE URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE NOTED ELSEWHERE. NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER AIR AT LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL REDUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ADDED
SUNSHINE AND THE SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S IN THE SAN JUAN GREATER
METROPOLITAN AREA AND KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS ON THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS.

THEN...ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND SHOWERS WILL
RETURN IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...MAINLY TO NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO
AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. SLIGHTLY DRIER DAYS WILL
BEGIN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND LAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AFTER
A TROUGH AT UPPER LEVELS PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND BETTER
CONDITIONS ARE FOUND IN ITS NORTHEAST QUADRANT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.
WINDS INCREASE TO 8-15 KTS FM THE EAST AFT 21/13Z WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS. VCSH PSBL AT TJSJ/TISX/TIST TIL EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR BETWEEN 21/17-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDS
AND MTN OBSCURATIONS... IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY DIMINISHING SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND WAVES FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL INCREASE IN BOTH
THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  78  90  77 /  30  30  30  10
STT  88  79  88  79 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 210953
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
553 AM AST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY NORTH FLOW OVER THE AREA AND RIDGING
NORTH OF THE AREA THAT CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM A LOW IN THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL DISPLACE
THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH AFTER A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND
CUT-OFF LOW MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE
AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND
HIGHER PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA CONTINUE. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALSO CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN A BOX BOUNDED BY 50 AND 60 WEST
LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE UNTIL THURSDAY. EAST
SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND WHILE LOW PRESSURES DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SIMILAR SITUATION TO YESTERDAY ABIDES AGAIN TODAY
WITH SMALL SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MOVING IN THE EAST
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW AND A SMATTERING OF SMALL SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN AND
EASTERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO. AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO HUNDREDTHS
HAVE BEEN NOTED WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN OVER THE AREA TODAY...A WEAK
SHORT WAVE THIS AFTERNOON AND LIFTED INDICES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN...TO INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO WHERE URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE NOTED ELSEWHERE. NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER AIR AT LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL REDUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ADDED
SUNSHINE AND THE SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S IN THE SAN JUAN GREATER
METROPOLITAN AREA AND KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS ON THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS.

THEN...ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND SHOWERS WILL
RETURN IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...MAINLY TO NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO
AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. SLIGHTLY DRIER DAYS WILL
BEGIN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND LAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AFTER
A TROUGH AT UPPER LEVELS PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND BETTER
CONDITIONS ARE FOUND IN ITS NORTHEAST QUADRANT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.
WINDS INCREASE TO 8-15 KTS FM THE EAST AFT 21/13Z WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS. VCSH PSBL AT TJSJ/TISX/TIST TIL EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR BETWEEN 21/17-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDS
AND MTN OBSCURATIONS... IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY DIMINISHING SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND WAVES FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL INCREASE IN BOTH
THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  78  90  77 /  30  30  30  10
STT  88  79  88  79 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/12







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 210258
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1052 PM AST MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD AS AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH ITS AXIS ESTABLISHING SOUTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. STRENGTHENING OF
MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 50W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY. UNDER THIS PATTERN...EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS CONVERGENT SIDE
OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE EAST. AS A RESULT CONTINUE TO
EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH DAY...BUT
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE DECREASING. MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED
TO FORECAST PACKAGE TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING 8-15 KTS FM THE EAST AFTER
21/13Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR BETWEEN 21/17-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCD...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. VCSH AT
TJSJ/TISX/TIST POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET IN NNE SWELLS SUBSIDING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM AST MON OCT 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SHORTWAVE-TROUGH OVR THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
ACROSS PR TUE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD WED THROUGH SAT THEN
WEAKEN AS TUTT EVOLVES OVR THE SRN CARIBBEAN.

DISCUSSION...WHILE A S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUE...MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. FURTHER DRYING IS EXPECTED WED THROUGH THU AS
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS WITH SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF 50W WILL REMAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH SAT
WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...A T-STORM POSSIBLE AT JMZ TUE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS.

MARINE...SOME INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGH SAT BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  77  89 /  20  20   0  10
STT  78  88  77  88 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/23








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 210258
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1052 PM AST MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD AS AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH ITS AXIS ESTABLISHING SOUTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. STRENGTHENING OF
MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 50W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY. UNDER THIS PATTERN...EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS CONVERGENT SIDE
OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE EAST. AS A RESULT CONTINUE TO
EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH DAY...BUT
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE DECREASING. MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED
TO FORECAST PACKAGE TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING 8-15 KTS FM THE EAST AFTER
21/13Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR BETWEEN 21/17-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCD...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. VCSH AT
TJSJ/TISX/TIST POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET IN NNE SWELLS SUBSIDING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM AST MON OCT 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SHORTWAVE-TROUGH OVR THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
ACROSS PR TUE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD WED THROUGH SAT THEN
WEAKEN AS TUTT EVOLVES OVR THE SRN CARIBBEAN.

DISCUSSION...WHILE A S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUE...MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. FURTHER DRYING IS EXPECTED WED THROUGH THU AS
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS WITH SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF 50W WILL REMAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH SAT
WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...A T-STORM POSSIBLE AT JMZ TUE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS.

MARINE...SOME INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGH SAT BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  77  89 /  20  20   0  10
STT  78  88  77  88 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/23







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 210252
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1052 PM AST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD AS AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH ITS AXIS ESTABLISHING SOUTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. STRENGTHENING OF
MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 50W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY. UNDER THIS PATTERN...EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS CONVERGENT SIDE
OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE EAST. AS A RESULT CONTINUE TO
EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH DAY...BUT
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE DECREASING. MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED
TO FORECAST PACKAGE TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING 8-15 KTS FM THE EAST AFTER
21/13Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR BETWEEN 21/17-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCD...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. VCSH AT
TJSJ/TISX/TIST POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET IN NNE SWELLS SUBSIDING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM AST MON OCT 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SHORTWAVE-TROUGH OVR THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
ACROSS PR TUE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD WED THROUGH SAT THEN
WEAKEN AS TUTT EVOLVES OVR THE SRN CARIBBEAN.

DISCUSSION...WHILE A S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUE...MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. FURTHER DRYING IS EXPECTED WED THROUGH THU AS
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS WITH SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF 50W WILL REMAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH SAT
WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...A T-STORM POSSIBLE AT JMZ TUE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS.

MARINE...SOME INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGH SAT BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  77  89 /  20  20   0  10
STT  78  88  77  88 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/23







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 210252
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1052 PM AST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD AS AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH ITS AXIS ESTABLISHING SOUTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. STRENGTHENING OF
MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 50W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY. UNDER THIS PATTERN...EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS CONVERGENT SIDE
OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE EAST. AS A RESULT CONTINUE TO
EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH DAY...BUT
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE DECREASING. MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED
TO FORECAST PACKAGE TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING 8-15 KTS FM THE EAST AFTER
21/13Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR BETWEEN 21/17-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCD...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. VCSH AT
TJSJ/TISX/TIST POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET IN NNE SWELLS SUBSIDING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM AST MON OCT 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SHORTWAVE-TROUGH OVR THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
ACROSS PR TUE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD WED THROUGH SAT THEN
WEAKEN AS TUTT EVOLVES OVR THE SRN CARIBBEAN.

DISCUSSION...WHILE A S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUE...MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. FURTHER DRYING IS EXPECTED WED THROUGH THU AS
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS WITH SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF 50W WILL REMAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH SAT
WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...A T-STORM POSSIBLE AT JMZ TUE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS.

MARINE...SOME INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGH SAT BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  77  89 /  20  20   0  10
STT  78  88  77  88 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/23








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 210252
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1052 PM AST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD AS AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH ITS AXIS ESTABLISHING SOUTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. STRENGTHENING OF
MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 50W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY. UNDER THIS PATTERN...EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS CONVERGENT SIDE
OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE EAST. AS A RESULT CONTINUE TO
EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH DAY...BUT
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE DECREASING. MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED
TO FORECAST PACKAGE TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING 8-15 KTS FM THE EAST AFTER
21/13Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR BETWEEN 21/17-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCD...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. VCSH AT
TJSJ/TISX/TIST POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET IN NNE SWELLS SUBSIDING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM AST MON OCT 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SHORTWAVE-TROUGH OVR THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
ACROSS PR TUE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD WED THROUGH SAT THEN
WEAKEN AS TUTT EVOLVES OVR THE SRN CARIBBEAN.

DISCUSSION...WHILE A S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUE...MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. FURTHER DRYING IS EXPECTED WED THROUGH THU AS
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS WITH SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF 50W WILL REMAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH SAT
WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...A T-STORM POSSIBLE AT JMZ TUE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS.

MARINE...SOME INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGH SAT BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  77  89 /  20  20   0  10
STT  78  88  77  88 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/23








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 210252
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1052 PM AST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD AS AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH ITS AXIS ESTABLISHING SOUTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. STRENGTHENING OF
MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 50W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY. UNDER THIS PATTERN...EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS CONVERGENT SIDE
OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE EAST. AS A RESULT CONTINUE TO
EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH DAY...BUT
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE DECREASING. MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED
TO FORECAST PACKAGE TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING 8-15 KTS FM THE EAST AFTER
21/13Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR BETWEEN 21/17-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCD...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. VCSH AT
TJSJ/TISX/TIST POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET IN NNE SWELLS SUBSIDING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM AST MON OCT 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SHORTWAVE-TROUGH OVR THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
ACROSS PR TUE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD WED THROUGH SAT THEN
WEAKEN AS TUTT EVOLVES OVR THE SRN CARIBBEAN.

DISCUSSION...WHILE A S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUE...MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. FURTHER DRYING IS EXPECTED WED THROUGH THU AS
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS WITH SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF 50W WILL REMAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH SAT
WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...A T-STORM POSSIBLE AT JMZ TUE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS.

MARINE...SOME INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGH SAT BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  77  89 /  20  20   0  10
STT  78  88  77  88 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/23







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 201903
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHORTWAVE-TROUGH OVR THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
ACROSS PR TUE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD WED THROUGH SAT THEN
WEAKEN AS TUTT EVOLVES OVR THE SRN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WHILE A S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUE...MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. FURTHER DRYING IS EXPECTED WED THROUGH THU AS
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS WITH SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF 50W WILL REMAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH SAT
WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...A T-STORM POSSIBLE AT JMZ TUE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.MARINE...SOME INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGH SAT BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  77  89 /  20  20   0  10
STT  78  87  77  88 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 201441
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1041 AM AST MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS...USVI...AND EASTERN PR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR
THIS MORNING. THESE ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER MOST OF THE ATTENTION IS
NOW GEARED TOWARDS THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON.

20/12Z RAOB INDICATED A TEMPERATURE OF -9C AT 500MB...WHICH IS
ROUGHLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS COLD TEMP IN THE
MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE
MAY CAUSE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME DECENT THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD EVEN DEVELOP SOME SMALL HAIL. HAVING SAID THAT...THE
FREEZING LEVEL AND WET- BULB ZERO HEIGHT ARE BOTH RATHER HIGH AT
OVER 15 KFT AND 13 KFT RESPECTIVELY...WHICH MEANS THAT MOST OF THE
HAIL COULD BE MELTED BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND
EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&


.AVIATION...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VCTS EXPECTED FOR
TJPS AND TJMZ IN THE AFTERNOON AS TSRA DEVELOPS OVER THE
INTERIOR...SOUTH..AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. TEMPO GROUPS LEFT
OUT DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION AND TIMING...BUT
+TSRA ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA NEAR TJPS AND TJMZ AFTER
20/17Z. VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH
PASSING SHRA OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ONE MORE BURST OF SWELL FROM THE NORTH NORTH EAST ON
TUESDAY OF UP 3 TO 4 FEET. WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE OVER THE
WEEK BUT WILL BECOME MORE EAST SOUTHEAST AFTER TUESDAY. NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM AST MON OCT 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY AND TOMORROW. ANOTHER WEAK
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A RIDGE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE COURSE
OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA. AN
INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY WILL
MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN MONDAY AND PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WEEK LIMITED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY AND THEN RETURN ON FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA WILL GENERATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADE WIND FLOW UNTIL MID WEEK. GENERALLY GOOD MOISTURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALSO CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN A BOX BOUNDED BY 50
AND 60 WEST LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE UNTIL THURSDAY.
LATER THIS WEEK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD
SOUTH INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. LOOK FOR GENERALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE SEEN ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS EXCEPT IN THE SHADOW OF PUERTO RICO GENERATED BY THE EAST
NORTHEAST FLOW. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MADE IT INLAND ON THE
COASTS AROUND PUERTO RICO FROM DORADO AND SAN JUAN THROUGH FAJARDO
AND YABUCOA. A FEW SHOWERS WERE ALSO SEEN IN PARTS OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. RELATIVELY GOOD MOISTURE AROUND 1.7 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND MINUS 5 TO MINUS
6 WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO IN MUCH THE SAME AREAS AS
YESTERDAY WITH LITTLE EXPECTED ON THE NORTH COAST AND HEAVY RAINS
AT TIMES IN THE WESTERN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. SOME
STREAMERS MAY ALSO BE GENERATED DOWNWIND FROM THE THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. CURRENTLY THE GFS KEEPS THE MOISTURE AT THESE ABUNDANT
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS VEERING VERY SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE
EAST. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE INTERIOR THROUGH TOMORROW. WIND FLOW BEGINS TO VEER DEVELOPING
A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THAT SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES ON THE
NORTH COAST BY SEVERAL DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE
LEVELS DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT MUCH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY THEN AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURNS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND SHOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA 2 TO
4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE PEAK OF THE WARMING.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD
EXCEPT AS FOLLOWS. PSBL VCSH ACROSS TJSJ/TIST/TISX FROM 20/09Z-20/16Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO
8-12 KTS FM THE EAST AFT 20/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR BETWEEN 20/18-22Z CREATING
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ WITH BRIEF MVFR.
ALSO...VCTS PSBL AT TJSJ AND TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.

MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ONE MORE BURST OF SWELL FROM THE NORTH NORTH EAST ON
TUESDAY OF UP 3 TO 4 FEET. WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE OVER THE
WEEK BUT WILL BECOME MORE EAST SOUTHEAST AFTER TUESDAY. NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  77  88  77 /  30  30  30  30
STT  89  78  87  77 /  40  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/64









000
FXCA62 TJSJ 201441
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1041 AM AST MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS...USVI...AND EASTERN PR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR
THIS MORNING. THESE ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER MOST OF THE ATTENTION IS
NOW GEARED TOWARDS THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON.

20/12Z RAOB INDICATED A TEMPERATURE OF -9C AT 500MB...WHICH IS
ROUGHLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS COLD TEMP IN THE
MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE
MAY CAUSE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME DECENT THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD EVEN DEVELOP SOME SMALL HAIL. HAVING SAID THAT...THE
FREEZING LEVEL AND WET- BULB ZERO HEIGHT ARE BOTH RATHER HIGH AT
OVER 15 KFT AND 13 KFT RESPECTIVELY...WHICH MEANS THAT MOST OF THE
HAIL COULD BE MELTED BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND
EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&


.AVIATION...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VCTS EXPECTED FOR
TJPS AND TJMZ IN THE AFTERNOON AS TSRA DEVELOPS OVER THE
INTERIOR...SOUTH..AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. TEMPO GROUPS LEFT
OUT DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION AND TIMING...BUT
+TSRA ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA NEAR TJPS AND TJMZ AFTER
20/17Z. VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH
PASSING SHRA OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ONE MORE BURST OF SWELL FROM THE NORTH NORTH EAST ON
TUESDAY OF UP 3 TO 4 FEET. WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE OVER THE
WEEK BUT WILL BECOME MORE EAST SOUTHEAST AFTER TUESDAY. NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM AST MON OCT 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY AND TOMORROW. ANOTHER WEAK
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A RIDGE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE COURSE
OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA. AN
INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY WILL
MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN MONDAY AND PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WEEK LIMITED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY AND THEN RETURN ON FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA WILL GENERATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADE WIND FLOW UNTIL MID WEEK. GENERALLY GOOD MOISTURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALSO CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN A BOX BOUNDED BY 50
AND 60 WEST LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE UNTIL THURSDAY.
LATER THIS WEEK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD
SOUTH INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. LOOK FOR GENERALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE SEEN ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS EXCEPT IN THE SHADOW OF PUERTO RICO GENERATED BY THE EAST
NORTHEAST FLOW. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MADE IT INLAND ON THE
COASTS AROUND PUERTO RICO FROM DORADO AND SAN JUAN THROUGH FAJARDO
AND YABUCOA. A FEW SHOWERS WERE ALSO SEEN IN PARTS OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. RELATIVELY GOOD MOISTURE AROUND 1.7 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND MINUS 5 TO MINUS
6 WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO IN MUCH THE SAME AREAS AS
YESTERDAY WITH LITTLE EXPECTED ON THE NORTH COAST AND HEAVY RAINS
AT TIMES IN THE WESTERN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. SOME
STREAMERS MAY ALSO BE GENERATED DOWNWIND FROM THE THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. CURRENTLY THE GFS KEEPS THE MOISTURE AT THESE ABUNDANT
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS VEERING VERY SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE
EAST. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE INTERIOR THROUGH TOMORROW. WIND FLOW BEGINS TO VEER DEVELOPING
A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THAT SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES ON THE
NORTH COAST BY SEVERAL DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE
LEVELS DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT MUCH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY THEN AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURNS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND SHOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA 2 TO
4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE PEAK OF THE WARMING.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD
EXCEPT AS FOLLOWS. PSBL VCSH ACROSS TJSJ/TIST/TISX FROM 20/09Z-20/16Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO
8-12 KTS FM THE EAST AFT 20/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR BETWEEN 20/18-22Z CREATING
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ WITH BRIEF MVFR.
ALSO...VCTS PSBL AT TJSJ AND TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.

MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ONE MORE BURST OF SWELL FROM THE NORTH NORTH EAST ON
TUESDAY OF UP 3 TO 4 FEET. WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE OVER THE
WEEK BUT WILL BECOME MORE EAST SOUTHEAST AFTER TUESDAY. NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  77  88  77 /  30  30  30  30
STT  89  78  87  77 /  40  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/64








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