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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 241503
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1103 AM AST THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS A GENERALLY FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER CONTINUED
ACROSS THE REGION. IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS REASONING...THE DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR DETECTED NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION SO FAR
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SEA BREEZE AND OTHER
LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PREVAILING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL PROMOTE
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED
A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 15K
FEET...BECOMING FROM THE WEST AND STRONGER ABOVE 15K FEET. VCSH
POSSIBLE FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 24/17Z AND 24/22Z WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING CAUSING MTN OBSCURATIONS AND CIGS AT AROUND FL030-040
ACROSS WESTERN PR.

&&

.MARINE...TRADE WINDS WILL TURN A LITTLE MORE FROM THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING A LITTLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF LOCAL ISLANDS MOVE FARTHER INTO CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF
15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM AST THU APR 24 2014/

SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC INTO
GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BUILD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 80S
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...AS A
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...
CREATING AND MAINTAINING OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT. HOWEVER...DUE TO A WEAK SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...BETTER
LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...RESULTING IN SOME
DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS...WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

GFS AND WRF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SLIGHT INCREASE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH LOCAL
AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION INLAND FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHS
DEEPEN OVR THE CNTRL ATLC AND ERN CONUS...BRINGING ONCE AGAIN DRY
AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNTIL 24/11Z...ESE
WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT THEREAFTER WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. VCSH
POSSIBLE FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 24/17Z AND 24/22Z WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING CAUSING MTN OBSCURATIONS AND CIGS AT AROUND FL030-040
ACROSS WESTERN PR.

MARINE...BROAD TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY
MAINTAINING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS. MODERATE NORTH SWELLS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE ATLC COASTAL
WATERS SATURDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  79 /  10  10  20  10
STT  85  79  85  79 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/12







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 241503
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1103 AM AST THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS A GENERALLY FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER CONTINUED
ACROSS THE REGION. IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS REASONING...THE DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR DETECTED NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION SO FAR
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SEA BREEZE AND OTHER
LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PREVAILING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL PROMOTE
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED
A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 15K
FEET...BECOMING FROM THE WEST AND STRONGER ABOVE 15K FEET. VCSH
POSSIBLE FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 24/17Z AND 24/22Z WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING CAUSING MTN OBSCURATIONS AND CIGS AT AROUND FL030-040
ACROSS WESTERN PR.

&&

.MARINE...TRADE WINDS WILL TURN A LITTLE MORE FROM THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING A LITTLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF LOCAL ISLANDS MOVE FARTHER INTO CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF
15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM AST THU APR 24 2014/

SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC INTO
GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BUILD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 80S
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...AS A
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...
CREATING AND MAINTAINING OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT. HOWEVER...DUE TO A WEAK SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...BETTER
LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...RESULTING IN SOME
DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS...WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

GFS AND WRF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SLIGHT INCREASE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH LOCAL
AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION INLAND FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHS
DEEPEN OVR THE CNTRL ATLC AND ERN CONUS...BRINGING ONCE AGAIN DRY
AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNTIL 24/11Z...ESE
WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT THEREAFTER WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. VCSH
POSSIBLE FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 24/17Z AND 24/22Z WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING CAUSING MTN OBSCURATIONS AND CIGS AT AROUND FL030-040
ACROSS WESTERN PR.

MARINE...BROAD TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY
MAINTAINING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS. MODERATE NORTH SWELLS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE ATLC COASTAL
WATERS SATURDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  79 /  10  10  20  10
STT  85  79  85  79 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240835
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
435 AM AST THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC INTO
GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BUILD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 80S
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...AS A
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...
CREATING AND MAINTAINING OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT. HOWEVER...DUE TO A WEAK SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...BETTER
LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...RESULTING IN SOME
DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS...WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

GFS AND WRF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SLIGHT INCREASE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH LOCAL
AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION INLAND FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHS
DEEPEN OVR THE CNTRL ATLC AND ERN CONUS...BRINGING ONCE AGAIN DRY
AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNTIL 24/11Z...ESE
WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT THEREAFTER WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. VCSH
POSSIBLE FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 24/17Z AND 24/22Z WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING CAUSING MTN OBSCURATIONS AND CIGS AT AROUND FL030-040
ACROSS WESTERN PR.

&&

.MARINE...BROAD TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY
MAINTAINING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS. MODERATE NORTH SWELLS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE ATLC COASTAL
WATERS SATURDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  79 /  10  10  20  10
STT  85  79  85  79 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240835
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
435 AM AST THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC INTO
GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BUILD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 80S
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...AS A
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...
CREATING AND MAINTAINING OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT. HOWEVER...DUE TO A WEAK SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...BETTER
LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...RESULTING IN SOME
DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS...WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

GFS AND WRF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SLIGHT INCREASE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH LOCAL
AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION INLAND FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHS
DEEPEN OVR THE CNTRL ATLC AND ERN CONUS...BRINGING ONCE AGAIN DRY
AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNTIL 24/11Z...ESE
WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT THEREAFTER WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. VCSH
POSSIBLE FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 24/17Z AND 24/22Z WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING CAUSING MTN OBSCURATIONS AND CIGS AT AROUND FL030-040
ACROSS WESTERN PR.

&&

.MARINE...BROAD TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY
MAINTAINING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS. MODERATE NORTH SWELLS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE ATLC COASTAL
WATERS SATURDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  79 /  10  10  20  10
STT  85  79  85  79 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240106 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
906 PM AST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC INTO
GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BUILD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC DURING
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS INDUCING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION
BRINGING A RELIEF TO THE HOT WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STRONG ZONAL FLOW WILL NOT ALLOW ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RECOVERY INTO REGION WITH ONLY ISOLD/SCT
DIURNAL SHALLOW CONVECTION EXPECTED OVR INLAND SECTIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS
TROFS DEEPEN OVR THE CNTRL ATLC AND ERN CONUS. HOWEVER...MODELS
DISAGREE SOMEWHAT HOW FAST AND AMPLIFIED RIDGING DEVELOPS OVR THE
REGION BUT ALL INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF RIDGING. AS WE ENTER THE
MONTH OF MAY WHICH IS CONSIDERED ONE OF THE WETTEST MONTHS OF THE
YEAR THINGS LOOK AWFUL DRY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE 24/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AT LESS THAN 12 KT FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 4 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS AT A MINIMUM NEXT 24 HRS WITH WINDS
STRENGTHENING SOME THU NIGHT. MODERATE NORTH SWELLS WILL BEGIN
AFFECTING THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS SAT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH FOR THU IS 95F AND THIS WILL NOT BE BROKEN
AS HEIGHTS ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES BEGIN TO FALL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  75  92 /  10  10  10  20
STT  79  85  78  85 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/64









000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240106 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
906 PM AST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC INTO
GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BUILD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC DURING
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS INDUCING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION
BRINGING A RELIEF TO THE HOT WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STRONG ZONAL FLOW WILL NOT ALLOW ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RECOVERY INTO REGION WITH ONLY ISOLD/SCT
DIURNAL SHALLOW CONVECTION EXPECTED OVR INLAND SECTIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS
TROFS DEEPEN OVR THE CNTRL ATLC AND ERN CONUS. HOWEVER...MODELS
DISAGREE SOMEWHAT HOW FAST AND AMPLIFIED RIDGING DEVELOPS OVR THE
REGION BUT ALL INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF RIDGING. AS WE ENTER THE
MONTH OF MAY WHICH IS CONSIDERED ONE OF THE WETTEST MONTHS OF THE
YEAR THINGS LOOK AWFUL DRY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE 24/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AT LESS THAN 12 KT FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 4 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS AT A MINIMUM NEXT 24 HRS WITH WINDS
STRENGTHENING SOME THU NIGHT. MODERATE NORTH SWELLS WILL BEGIN
AFFECTING THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS SAT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH FOR THU IS 95F AND THIS WILL NOT BE BROKEN
AS HEIGHTS ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES BEGIN TO FALL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  75  92 /  10  10  10  20
STT  79  85  78  85 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/64










000
FXCA62 TJSJ 231909
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK RIDGE WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
WILL PERSIST OVER THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY AND TOMORROW.
THEN A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH PULLING THE SUB TROPICAL
JET SOUTH AND INTO THE A FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL GIVE WAY TO
A BROAD TROUGH FROM A LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DROP INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-BUILD FROM THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE AREA AFTER WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS
RETREATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WHILE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING
EAST SOUTHEAST OUT OF MAINE WILL ROTATE AROUND ANOTHER ALREADY
NORTH OF THE AREA AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UNITED STATES INTO THE
ATLANTIC JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND CLOSE THE SADDLE IN THE
RIDGE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. ANOTHER HIGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC A LITTLE MORE NORTH OF THE AREA AND
REPEAT THE CYCLE. THIS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL WINDS EAST SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. AFTER FRIDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SMALL SHALLOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED AFTER NOON ACROSS
PUERTO RICO FROM ANASCO TO COROZAL. A STREAMER ALSO DEVELOPED WELL
DOWN STREAM FROM SAINT CROIX TO THE WESTERN END OF SAINT THOMAS IN
SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW. SHOWERS WILL ABATE EARLY AS GFS MODEL SHOWS
A MOISTURE MINIMUM OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE BEST MOISTURE OF
THE NEXT 7 DAYS LATE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS
RELATIVELY LIMITED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK AS WEAK UPPER AND
LOWER FEATURES PLAY OUT OVER THE AREA...INCLUDING THE
FOREMENTIONED JET STREAM AND THE SERIES OF SURFACE HIGHS THAT
KEEP GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA. DURING THIS
TIME NO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED NOR ORGANIZED LOCAL
CONVECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA. MOISTURE DOES
EXHIBIT ONE POP AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA AND WOULD EXPECT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER THEN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPCT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN -SHRA AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...AFFECTING TJMZ
AND TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 23/21Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY UNTIL
FRIDAY...BUT SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 6 FEET AT ANY TIME
DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. MARINE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. WIND SPEED WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LOWER THAN USUAL WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  92  75  92 /  10  30  10  20
STT  77  85  78  85 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

15/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 231909
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK RIDGE WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
WILL PERSIST OVER THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY AND TOMORROW.
THEN A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH PULLING THE SUB TROPICAL
JET SOUTH AND INTO THE A FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL GIVE WAY TO
A BROAD TROUGH FROM A LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DROP INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-BUILD FROM THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE AREA AFTER WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS
RETREATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WHILE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING
EAST SOUTHEAST OUT OF MAINE WILL ROTATE AROUND ANOTHER ALREADY
NORTH OF THE AREA AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UNITED STATES INTO THE
ATLANTIC JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND CLOSE THE SADDLE IN THE
RIDGE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. ANOTHER HIGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC A LITTLE MORE NORTH OF THE AREA AND
REPEAT THE CYCLE. THIS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL WINDS EAST SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. AFTER FRIDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SMALL SHALLOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED AFTER NOON ACROSS
PUERTO RICO FROM ANASCO TO COROZAL. A STREAMER ALSO DEVELOPED WELL
DOWN STREAM FROM SAINT CROIX TO THE WESTERN END OF SAINT THOMAS IN
SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW. SHOWERS WILL ABATE EARLY AS GFS MODEL SHOWS
A MOISTURE MINIMUM OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE BEST MOISTURE OF
THE NEXT 7 DAYS LATE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS
RELATIVELY LIMITED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK AS WEAK UPPER AND
LOWER FEATURES PLAY OUT OVER THE AREA...INCLUDING THE
FOREMENTIONED JET STREAM AND THE SERIES OF SURFACE HIGHS THAT
KEEP GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA. DURING THIS
TIME NO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED NOR ORGANIZED LOCAL
CONVECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA. MOISTURE DOES
EXHIBIT ONE POP AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA AND WOULD EXPECT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER THEN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPCT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN -SHRA AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...AFFECTING TJMZ
AND TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 23/21Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY UNTIL
FRIDAY...BUT SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 6 FEET AT ANY TIME
DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. MARINE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. WIND SPEED WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LOWER THAN USUAL WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  92  75  92 /  10  30  10  20
STT  77  85  78  85 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

15/12







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 231459
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1059 AM AST WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES...AS TEMPS IN THE SAN JUAN METRO ALREADY
OVER 90 DEGREES. FAIR STABLE WEATHER ON TAP.

&&

.AVIATION...NO CHANGES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM AST WED APR 23 2014/

SYNOPSIS...A ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO...SAINT
THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 80S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
TWO DAYS OR SO...AS A ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...CREATING AND MAINTAINING OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT. HOWEVER...DUE TO A WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW...BETTER LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...
RESULTING IN SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH DAY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE.

GFS AND WRF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS AND A SERIES OF TROUGHS
MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS
WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION INLAND FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL HOWEVER....LOOK FOR MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER SKIES TO PREVAIL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...BECOMING ESE AFTER 23/13Z AT
AROUND 10 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

MARINE...WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT THRU FRI. WINDS STRENGTHEN
SOME DURING THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BECOMING 4-6 FT IN EAST GENERATED
WIND WAVES AND MODERATE NORTH SWELLS.

CLIMATE...THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY IS ONLY 92F AND TEMPS LIKELY TO
CLIMB AGAIN IN THE MID 90S UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  92  76  92  75 /  10  10  20  10
STT  85  77  85  78 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

15/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230909 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO...SAINT
THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 80S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
TWO DAYS OR SO...AS A ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...CREATING AND MAINTAINING OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT. HOWEVER...DUE TO A WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW...BETTER LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...
RESULTING IN SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH DAY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE.

GFS AND WRF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS AND A SERIES OF TROUGHS
MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS
WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION INLAND FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL HOWEVER....LOOK FOR MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER SKIES TO PREVAIL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...BECOMING ESE AFTER 23/13Z AT
AROUND 10 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT THRU FRI. WINDS STRENGTHEN
SOME DURING THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BECOMING 4-6 FT IN EAST GENERATED
WIND WAVES AND MODERATE NORTH SWELLS.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY IS ONLY 92F AND TEMPS LIKELY TO
CLIMB AGAIN IN THE MID 90S UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  92  76  92  75 /  10  10  20  10
STT  85  77  85  78 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230909 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO...SAINT
THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 80S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
TWO DAYS OR SO...AS A ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...CREATING AND MAINTAINING OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT. HOWEVER...DUE TO A WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW...BETTER LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...
RESULTING IN SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH DAY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE.

GFS AND WRF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS AND A SERIES OF TROUGHS
MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS
WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION INLAND FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL HOWEVER....LOOK FOR MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER SKIES TO PREVAIL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...BECOMING ESE AFTER 23/13Z AT
AROUND 10 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT THRU FRI. WINDS STRENGTHEN
SOME DURING THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BECOMING 4-6 FT IN EAST GENERATED
WIND WAVES AND MODERATE NORTH SWELLS.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY IS ONLY 92F AND TEMPS LIKELY TO
CLIMB AGAIN IN THE MID 90S UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  92  76  92  75 /  10  10  20  10
STT  85  77  85  78 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230845
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
445 AM AST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO...SAINT
THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 80S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
TWO DAYS OR SO...AS A ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...CREATING AND MAINTAINING OVERALL SUBSIDENCE
AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT. HOWEVER...DUE TO A WEAK SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...BETTER LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS IS ANTICIPATED...
RESULTING IN SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH DAY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY
FLOW PREVAILS...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

GFS AND WRF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS AND A SERIES OF TROUGHS
MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS
WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION INLAND FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL HOWEVER....LOOK FOR MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER SKIES TO PREVAIL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...BECOMING ESE AFTER 23/13Z AT
AROUND 10 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT THRU FRI. WINDS STRENGTHEN
SOME DURING THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BECOMING 4-6 FT IN EAST GENERATED
WIND WAVES AND MODERATE NORTH SWELLS.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY IS ONLY 92F AND TEMPS LIKELY TO
CLIMB AGAIN IN THE MID 90S UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  92  76  92  75 /  10  10  20  10
STT  85  77  85  78 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230124 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
924 PM AST TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVR THE ATLC WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAINTAIN ZONAL FLOW. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
NORTH OF THE AREA OVR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WHILE OVERALL SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN IS ONE OF
BROAD TROUGHING...MODELS INDICATE HEIGHT RISES IN THE ORDER OF
20-30 METERS OVR PR/USVI DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO DIABATIC WARMING UNDER SUBSIDING AIR MASS. WARMING WILL ALSO BE
AUGMENTED ON THE NORTH COAST DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WED WITH TEMPS IN
THE MID 90S.

A SERIES OF TROUGHS EXITING THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT
SVRL DAYS WILL RESULT IN HEIGHTS FALLING ACROSS THE AREA FRI THRU
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RELIEF TO THE HOT WEATHER. A BIT MORE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION INLAND. HOWEVER...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT ALLOW ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR REGION. SO DRIER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN IS STRONGLY SUGGESTED BY OP AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE OVR ERN CONUS INTO THE ATLC WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE DEVELOPING BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THIS IS A SLOW TO EVOLVE
PATTERN WHICH MODELS TEND TO HAVE A FAST BIAS...HOWEVER...
THE 250 MB SPAGHETTI PLOT IS WELL CLUSTERED SUGGESTING HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON PATTERN AND TIMING EVOLUTION. IT APPEARS WELL BELOW
NORMAL RAINFALL IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE 23/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AT 5-15 KT FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 5 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT THRU FRI. WINDS
STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BECOMING 4-6 FT IN
EAST GENERATED WIND WAVES AND MODERATE NORTH SWELLS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH FOR WED IS ONLY 92F AND TEMPS LIKELY TO
CLIMB AGAIN IN THE MID 90S UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND
SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  92  76  86 /   0   0  10  20
STT  78  85  77  86 /   0  10  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/64








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230124 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
924 PM AST TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVR THE ATLC WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAINTAIN ZONAL FLOW. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
NORTH OF THE AREA OVR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WHILE OVERALL SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN IS ONE OF
BROAD TROUGHING...MODELS INDICATE HEIGHT RISES IN THE ORDER OF
20-30 METERS OVR PR/USVI DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO DIABATIC WARMING UNDER SUBSIDING AIR MASS. WARMING WILL ALSO BE
AUGMENTED ON THE NORTH COAST DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WED WITH TEMPS IN
THE MID 90S.

A SERIES OF TROUGHS EXITING THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT
SVRL DAYS WILL RESULT IN HEIGHTS FALLING ACROSS THE AREA FRI THRU
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RELIEF TO THE HOT WEATHER. A BIT MORE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION INLAND. HOWEVER...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT ALLOW ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR REGION. SO DRIER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN IS STRONGLY SUGGESTED BY OP AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE OVR ERN CONUS INTO THE ATLC WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE DEVELOPING BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THIS IS A SLOW TO EVOLVE
PATTERN WHICH MODELS TEND TO HAVE A FAST BIAS...HOWEVER...
THE 250 MB SPAGHETTI PLOT IS WELL CLUSTERED SUGGESTING HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON PATTERN AND TIMING EVOLUTION. IT APPEARS WELL BELOW
NORMAL RAINFALL IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE 23/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AT 5-15 KT FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 5 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT THRU FRI. WINDS
STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BECOMING 4-6 FT IN
EAST GENERATED WIND WAVES AND MODERATE NORTH SWELLS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH FOR WED IS ONLY 92F AND TEMPS LIKELY TO
CLIMB AGAIN IN THE MID 90S UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND
SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  92  76  86 /   0   0  10  20
STT  78  85  77  86 /   0  10  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/64









000
FXCA62 TJSJ 221906
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG AND BROAD POLAR TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
STILL FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BUT WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN. A HIGH ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THIS SHOULD
HELP CREATE AND MAINTAIN OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/SHEAR LINE EXTENDS
FROM THE WEST ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST TO JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...WHERE
IT WILL CONTINUE TO STALL AND DISSIPATE. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST RESULTING IN A WEAK LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UNDER THE ABOVE MENTIONED WEATHER PATTERN...AN OVERALL
FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND WEDNESDAY THE WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND WILL
GIVE WAY TO BETTER LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. THIS ALONG WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL LEAD TO SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. IN THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...EXPECT A MIXTURE OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS WITH ONE
OR TWO ISOLATED SHOWERS AS A PATCH OF MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY. DUE TO THE UNUSUAL SOUTHERLY STEERING
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK ...STILL LOOKING FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION DUE TO INCREASING EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE
WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THIS COMBINED WITH LOCAL AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND THE
FORMATION OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS EACH DAY. OVERALL HOWEVER....LOOK FOR MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES
TO PREVAIL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE ISLANDS. MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES OR
PROBLEMS TO AFFECT THE AREA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPCT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SHRA AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...AFFECTING TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH
ABOUT 22/22Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEAS DECREASING FROM 3-5 FEET
TO 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A SMALL NE SWELL OF 2-3 FEET WILL
REACH THE ISLANDS ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE NORTH SWELL
OF 4-6 FEET DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95 DEGREES WAS SET AT THE
SAN JUAN LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TODAY. THIS TIES
THE OLD RECORD OF 95 SET IN 1983.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  89  76  86 /  10  30  10  20
STT  76  86  77  86 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

15/09







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 221906
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG AND BROAD POLAR TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
STILL FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BUT WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN. A HIGH ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THIS SHOULD
HELP CREATE AND MAINTAIN OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/SHEAR LINE EXTENDS
FROM THE WEST ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST TO JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...WHERE
IT WILL CONTINUE TO STALL AND DISSIPATE. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST RESULTING IN A WEAK LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UNDER THE ABOVE MENTIONED WEATHER PATTERN...AN OVERALL
FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND WEDNESDAY THE WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND WILL
GIVE WAY TO BETTER LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. THIS ALONG WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL LEAD TO SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. IN THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...EXPECT A MIXTURE OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS WITH ONE
OR TWO ISOLATED SHOWERS AS A PATCH OF MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY. DUE TO THE UNUSUAL SOUTHERLY STEERING
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK ...STILL LOOKING FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION DUE TO INCREASING EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE
WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THIS COMBINED WITH LOCAL AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND THE
FORMATION OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS EACH DAY. OVERALL HOWEVER....LOOK FOR MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES
TO PREVAIL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE ISLANDS. MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES OR
PROBLEMS TO AFFECT THE AREA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPCT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SHRA AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...AFFECTING TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH
ABOUT 22/22Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEAS DECREASING FROM 3-5 FEET
TO 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A SMALL NE SWELL OF 2-3 FEET WILL
REACH THE ISLANDS ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE NORTH SWELL
OF 4-6 FEET DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95 DEGREES WAS SET AT THE
SAN JUAN LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TODAY. THIS TIES
THE OLD RECORD OF 95 SET IN 1983.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  89  76  86 /  10  30  10  20
STT  76  86  77  86 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

15/09






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 221459
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1059 AM AST TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...THE SHWRS IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO ARE DIMINISHING AS
THE MORNING PROGRESSES. CLDS AND ISOLATED SHWRS REMAIN FOR USVI AT THE
MOMENT. THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHWR OR TWO STILL IN FCST INTO AFT.
NO CHANGE TO PREV FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...NO CHANGES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM AST TUE APR 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF TROUGHS/LOWS WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THESE TROUGHS/LOWS WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH IMPACT IN THE ISLAND`S WEATHER. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
MAINLY ZONAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT LOW LEVELS...A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS MOST OF THE WEEK. UNDER THIS CONDITIONS...
A RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF BERMUDA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...WITHOUT HAVING A
DIRECT IMPACT ON PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH LIGHT
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER PUERTO RICO DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/SHEARLINE...WINDS ACROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY NORMAL. OPERATIONAL MODELS
SUGGEST SOME ENHANCEMENT IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND LEEWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE
IN THIS REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THE PUERTO RICO
REGION...WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...DIURNAL CYCLES WILL PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE SHOWER FORMATION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SHALLOW
CONVECTION DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR...
NORTH AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
PR AS THE WINDS PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHEAST. IN CONTRAST...ON FRIDAY...
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST...FAVORING THE SHOWER FORMATION ACROSS
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLANDS THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AFT 22/16Z BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO...
AFFECTING TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 22/22Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEAS DECREASING FROM 3-5 FEET
TO 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A SMALL NE SWELL OF 2-3 FEET WILL
REACH THE ISLANDS ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE NORTH SWELL
OF 4-6 FEET DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  76  91  75 /  30  30  30  10
STT  85  76  88  78 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

15/09







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 221459
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1059 AM AST TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...THE SHWRS IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO ARE DIMINISHING AS
THE MORNING PROGRESSES. CLDS AND ISOLATED SHWRS REMAIN FOR USVI AT THE
MOMENT. THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHWR OR TWO STILL IN FCST INTO AFT.
NO CHANGE TO PREV FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...NO CHANGES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM AST TUE APR 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF TROUGHS/LOWS WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THESE TROUGHS/LOWS WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH IMPACT IN THE ISLAND`S WEATHER. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
MAINLY ZONAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT LOW LEVELS...A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS MOST OF THE WEEK. UNDER THIS CONDITIONS...
A RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF BERMUDA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...WITHOUT HAVING A
DIRECT IMPACT ON PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH LIGHT
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER PUERTO RICO DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/SHEARLINE...WINDS ACROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY NORMAL. OPERATIONAL MODELS
SUGGEST SOME ENHANCEMENT IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND LEEWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE
IN THIS REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THE PUERTO RICO
REGION...WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...DIURNAL CYCLES WILL PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE SHOWER FORMATION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SHALLOW
CONVECTION DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR...
NORTH AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
PR AS THE WINDS PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHEAST. IN CONTRAST...ON FRIDAY...
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST...FAVORING THE SHOWER FORMATION ACROSS
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLANDS THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AFT 22/16Z BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO...
AFFECTING TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 22/22Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEAS DECREASING FROM 3-5 FEET
TO 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A SMALL NE SWELL OF 2-3 FEET WILL
REACH THE ISLANDS ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE NORTH SWELL
OF 4-6 FEET DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  76  91  75 /  30  30  30  10
STT  85  76  88  78 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

15/09






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 220850
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
450 AM AST TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF TROUGHS/LOWS WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THESE TROUGHS/LOWS WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH IMPACT IN THE ISLAND`S WEATHER. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
MAINLY ZONAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT LOW LEVELS...A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS MOST OF THE WEEK. UNDER THIS CONDITIONS...
A RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF BERMUDA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...WITHOUT HAVING A
DIRECT IMPACT ON PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH LIGHT
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER PUERTO RICO DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/SHEARLINE...WINDS ACROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY NORMAL. OPERATIONAL MODELS
SUGGEST SOME ENHANCEMENT IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND LEEWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE
IN THIS REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THE PUERTO RICO
REGION...WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...DIURNAL CYCLES WILL PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE SHOWER FORMATION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SHALLOW
CONVECTION DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR...
NORTH AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
PR AS THE WINDS PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHEAST. IN CONTRAST...ON FRIDAY...
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST...FAVORING THE SHOWER FORMATION ACROSS
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLANDS THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AFT 22/16Z BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO...
AFFECTING TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 22/22Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEAS DECREASING FROM 3-5 FEET
TO 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A SMALL NE SWELL OF 2-3 FEET WILL
REACH THE ISLANDS ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE NORTH SWELL
OF 4-6 FEET DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  76  91  75 /  30  30  30  10
STT  85  76  88  78 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

71/11






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 220850
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
450 AM AST TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF TROUGHS/LOWS WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THESE TROUGHS/LOWS WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH IMPACT IN THE ISLAND`S WEATHER. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
MAINLY ZONAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT LOW LEVELS...A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS MOST OF THE WEEK. UNDER THIS CONDITIONS...
A RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF BERMUDA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...WITHOUT HAVING A
DIRECT IMPACT ON PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH LIGHT
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER PUERTO RICO DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/SHEARLINE...WINDS ACROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY NORMAL. OPERATIONAL MODELS
SUGGEST SOME ENHANCEMENT IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND LEEWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE
IN THIS REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THE PUERTO RICO
REGION...WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...DIURNAL CYCLES WILL PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE SHOWER FORMATION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SHALLOW
CONVECTION DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR...
NORTH AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
PR AS THE WINDS PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHEAST. IN CONTRAST...ON FRIDAY...
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST...FAVORING THE SHOWER FORMATION ACROSS
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLANDS THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AFT 22/16Z BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO...
AFFECTING TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 22/22Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEAS DECREASING FROM 3-5 FEET
TO 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A SMALL NE SWELL OF 2-3 FEET WILL
REACH THE ISLANDS ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE NORTH SWELL
OF 4-6 FEET DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  76  91  75 /  30  30  30  10
STT  85  76  88  78 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

71/11







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 220119
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
919 PM AST MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAINTAIN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH
WILL CROSS 60W BY TUE EVENING WITHOUT MUCH EFFECTS OVR OUR AREA.
H85-H7 LAPSE RATES FOR TOMORROW LOOK ON THE STABLE SIDE AND BEST
MOISTURE STAYS OVR THE USVI. MID LEVEL TEMPS STILL ON THE WARM
SIDE SO NO THUNDER. EXPECT ISOLD/SCT SHALLOW CONVECTION TO POP UP OVR
NCNTRL/NW PR. WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO DOWNSLOPE
FLOW/COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN THE
92/93F RANGE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HEIGHT RISES/SHORTWAVE
RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD LATE TUE THROUGH THU WITH FURTHER WARMING
WITH 950 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO SOAR TO 24C (3C DEGS WARMER THAN
TODAY). WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRETTY HOT WITH MID 90S AND DRYER
CONDITIONS UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT AND LEAD
TO SOME HEIGHT FALLS OVR THE AREA AND COOLING WITH SFC WINDS
TURNING MORE EASTERLY BY FRI. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT ALLOW ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RECOVERY INTO OUR AREA WITH MODELS
MAINTAINING A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THU THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL...DRY PATTERN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING
INDICATED A SOUTHERLY BUT LIGHT WIND FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND
15K FEET...BECOMING FROM THE WEST AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS DIMINISHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SEAS
BECOMING 2-4 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  89  76  88 /   0  20  30  40
STT  76  85  77  85 /  10  20  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/64










000
FXCA62 TJSJ 220119
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
919 PM AST MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAINTAIN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH
WILL CROSS 60W BY TUE EVENING WITHOUT MUCH EFFECTS OVR OUR AREA.
H85-H7 LAPSE RATES FOR TOMORROW LOOK ON THE STABLE SIDE AND BEST
MOISTURE STAYS OVR THE USVI. MID LEVEL TEMPS STILL ON THE WARM
SIDE SO NO THUNDER. EXPECT ISOLD/SCT SHALLOW CONVECTION TO POP UP OVR
NCNTRL/NW PR. WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO DOWNSLOPE
FLOW/COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN THE
92/93F RANGE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HEIGHT RISES/SHORTWAVE
RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD LATE TUE THROUGH THU WITH FURTHER WARMING
WITH 950 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO SOAR TO 24C (3C DEGS WARMER THAN
TODAY). WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRETTY HOT WITH MID 90S AND DRYER
CONDITIONS UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT AND LEAD
TO SOME HEIGHT FALLS OVR THE AREA AND COOLING WITH SFC WINDS
TURNING MORE EASTERLY BY FRI. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT ALLOW ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RECOVERY INTO OUR AREA WITH MODELS
MAINTAINING A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THU THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL...DRY PATTERN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING
INDICATED A SOUTHERLY BUT LIGHT WIND FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND
15K FEET...BECOMING FROM THE WEST AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS DIMINISHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SEAS
BECOMING 2-4 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  89  76  88 /   0  20  30  40
STT  76  85  77  85 /  10  20  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/64











000
FXCA62 TJSJ 211842
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
242 PM AST MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER
LESSER ANTILLES WILL MIGRATE NORTHWEST. BY WED/THU IT WILL ENTRAIN
INTO A MORE ESTABLISHED MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN TO A (BY THEN) OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN 20N AND 25N.
BEFORE IT DOES SO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES WILL BE
HERE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE
MARGINAL BUT K INDEX INCREASING TO NEAR 35 AS GFS SUGGESTS MEANS
ISOLATED THUNDER IS A GOOD BET OVER SOUTHEAST WATERS AND USVI TUE
NIGHT. BUT SHOWERS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN SCATTERED IS QUESTIONABLE
THOUGH ONE WOULD THINK THERE WILL BE MORE SHOWERS THAN ARE CURRENTLY
ON GUADELOUPE RADAR (BARELY SCATTERED). OTHERWISE...PERSISTENT DRY
AIR WILL BE FLOWING OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS ALL WEEK FROM DRY
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AIR WELL NORTH OF ITCZ MOIST BAND.

WE ARE ENTERING A PERIOD OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A 700 MB RIDGE SETTING UP NEAR OR JUST NORTHEAST
OF THE LEEWARDS. THIS INTRODUCES A POSSIBLE VISIT OF SAHARAN LAYER
WITH DUST THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH PROBABLY BRIEF. THE SAHARAN AIR IN
QUESTION IS CURRENTLY EAST OF 45W. 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WOULD DIVERT IT AWAY FROM
PR/USVI JUST BEFORE ARRIVING. AN EARLY LO0K AT 12Z ECMWF LOOKS
ABOUT THE SAME. 12Z GFS STILL SHOWS A WEAKER AND LATER TROUGH...
ALLOWING AT LEAST SOME SAHARAN DUST TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
TOO EARLY TO SIDE WITH EITHER SOLUTION EXCEPT TO SAY RELATIVE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER JMZ
AND JBQ UNTIL 21/22Z DUE SHRA AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR. VFR CONDITIONS AT OTHER
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM SFC TO
AROUND 5 KFT AT 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TRADES FROM EAST OR SOUTHEAST ALL WEEK AND NO
SIGNIFICANT SWELLS EXPECTED INDICATES THAT SEAS WILL STAY BELOW 6
FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  87  76  89 /  10  40  30  40
STT  75  86  77  84 /  20  50  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/54






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 211842
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
242 PM AST MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER
LESSER ANTILLES WILL MIGRATE NORTHWEST. BY WED/THU IT WILL ENTRAIN
INTO A MORE ESTABLISHED MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN TO A (BY THEN) OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN 20N AND 25N.
BEFORE IT DOES SO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES WILL BE
HERE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE
MARGINAL BUT K INDEX INCREASING TO NEAR 35 AS GFS SUGGESTS MEANS
ISOLATED THUNDER IS A GOOD BET OVER SOUTHEAST WATERS AND USVI TUE
NIGHT. BUT SHOWERS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN SCATTERED IS QUESTIONABLE
THOUGH ONE WOULD THINK THERE WILL BE MORE SHOWERS THAN ARE CURRENTLY
ON GUADELOUPE RADAR (BARELY SCATTERED). OTHERWISE...PERSISTENT DRY
AIR WILL BE FLOWING OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS ALL WEEK FROM DRY
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AIR WELL NORTH OF ITCZ MOIST BAND.

WE ARE ENTERING A PERIOD OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A 700 MB RIDGE SETTING UP NEAR OR JUST NORTHEAST
OF THE LEEWARDS. THIS INTRODUCES A POSSIBLE VISIT OF SAHARAN LAYER
WITH DUST THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH PROBABLY BRIEF. THE SAHARAN AIR IN
QUESTION IS CURRENTLY EAST OF 45W. 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WOULD DIVERT IT AWAY FROM
PR/USVI JUST BEFORE ARRIVING. AN EARLY LO0K AT 12Z ECMWF LOOKS
ABOUT THE SAME. 12Z GFS STILL SHOWS A WEAKER AND LATER TROUGH...
ALLOWING AT LEAST SOME SAHARAN DUST TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
TOO EARLY TO SIDE WITH EITHER SOLUTION EXCEPT TO SAY RELATIVE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER JMZ
AND JBQ UNTIL 21/22Z DUE SHRA AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR. VFR CONDITIONS AT OTHER
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM SFC TO
AROUND 5 KFT AT 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TRADES FROM EAST OR SOUTHEAST ALL WEEK AND NO
SIGNIFICANT SWELLS EXPECTED INDICATES THAT SEAS WILL STAY BELOW 6
FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  87  76  89 /  10  40  30  40
STT  75  86  77  84 /  20  50  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/54





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