000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240214
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1014 PM AST THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO
LATER TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AFTER 24/06Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...USVI AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO. MODELS SUGGEST AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER SURGING GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT...REACHING A
MAXIMUM OF 2.1 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL...EXPECT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AND BECOME MORE ACTIVE TOMORROW THROUGH
THE WEEKEND UNDER INFLUENCE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS. MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE
THIS EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 24/12Z. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER TNCM AND TKPK IN SHOWERS. VCSH SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER TIST AND TISX. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST
AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OFF
SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS DUE TO SEAS BETWEEN 7 AND 8
FEET. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM AST THU MAY 23 2013/
SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC INTO
THE CARIBBEAN REGION THRU MID NEXT WEEK. STRONG SFC HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...MODEL FCSTS FOR TOMORROW SEEMS TO HAVE BROKEN
CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAYS RUN BUT REMAIN CONSISTENT FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
HEAVY RAINS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW RAPID MOISTURE RETURN OVR
THE AREA EARLY FRI AND THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY BASED ON THE BLENDED
TPW PRODUCT. LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...GUIDANCE INDICATES
SHORTWAVE-RIDGE ALOFT FRI WHICH WOULD ARGUE AGAINST WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL.
LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE-TROUGH FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN
NMRS/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE USVI AND EASTERN PR. WITH
GENERAL TROF PATTERN TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...VERY
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. AS
ALWAYS...TIMING OF THESE CONVECTIVE BLOWUPS IS QUITE CHALLENGING
BUT THE SCREAMING MESSAGE HERE IS FOR SIG HEAVY AND PROLONGED
RAINS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO WORSEN MID NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH
CUTS OFF ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ESTABLISHES OVER THE REGION AND MOISTURE DEEPENS.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJMZ AND POSSIBLY
TJBQ DUE TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MTN OBSCURATIONS AND VARIABLE
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THE SHRA/TSRA. WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE AFTER 23/23Z. THEREAFTER...PASSING SHRA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
WILL CAUSE VCSH FOR TJSJ...TIST...TISX...AS WELL AS TNCM AND TKPK.
WINDS WILL BE AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS FROM THE EAST UNTIL 24/12Z.
INCREASING THEREAFTER TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY.
MARINE...SCA REMAIN IN EFFECT BUT WILL LIKELY GO DOWN TOMORROW AS
WINDS WEAKEN BIT. TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 85 76 85 / 40 70 70 70
STT 77 86 78 85 / 40 60 70 70
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST FRIDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
SOUTHWARD TO 17N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM
TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.
&&
$$
71/11
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240214
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1014 PM AST THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO
LATER TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AFTER 24/06Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...USVI AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO. MODELS SUGGEST AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER SURGING GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT...REACHING A
MAXIMUM OF 2.1 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL...EXPECT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AND BECOME MORE ACTIVE TOMORROW THROUGH
THE WEEKEND UNDER INFLUENCE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS. MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE
THIS EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 24/12Z. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER TNCM AND TKPK IN SHOWERS. VCSH SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER TIST AND TISX. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST
AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OFF
SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS DUE TO SEAS BETWEEN 7 AND 8
FEET. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM AST THU MAY 23 2013/
SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC INTO
THE CARIBBEAN REGION THRU MID NEXT WEEK. STRONG SFC HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...MODEL FCSTS FOR TOMORROW SEEMS TO HAVE BROKEN
CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAYS RUN BUT REMAIN CONSISTENT FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
HEAVY RAINS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW RAPID MOISTURE RETURN OVR
THE AREA EARLY FRI AND THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY BASED ON THE BLENDED
TPW PRODUCT. LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...GUIDANCE INDICATES
SHORTWAVE-RIDGE ALOFT FRI WHICH WOULD ARGUE AGAINST WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL.
LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE-TROUGH FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN
NMRS/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE USVI AND EASTERN PR. WITH
GENERAL TROF PATTERN TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...VERY
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. AS
ALWAYS...TIMING OF THESE CONVECTIVE BLOWUPS IS QUITE CHALLENGING
BUT THE SCREAMING MESSAGE HERE IS FOR SIG HEAVY AND PROLONGED
RAINS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO WORSEN MID NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH
CUTS OFF ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ESTABLISHES OVER THE REGION AND MOISTURE DEEPENS.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJMZ AND POSSIBLY
TJBQ DUE TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MTN OBSCURATIONS AND VARIABLE
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THE SHRA/TSRA. WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE AFTER 23/23Z. THEREAFTER...PASSING SHRA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
WILL CAUSE VCSH FOR TJSJ...TIST...TISX...AS WELL AS TNCM AND TKPK.
WINDS WILL BE AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS FROM THE EAST UNTIL 24/12Z.
INCREASING THEREAFTER TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY.
MARINE...SCA REMAIN IN EFFECT BUT WILL LIKELY GO DOWN TOMORROW AS
WINDS WEAKEN BIT. TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 85 76 85 / 40 70 70 70
STT 77 86 78 85 / 40 60 70 70
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST FRIDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
SOUTHWARD TO 17N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM
TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.
&&
$$
71/11
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 231938
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
338 PM AST THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC INTO
THE CARIBBEAN REGION THRU MID NEXT WEEK. STRONG SFC HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MODEL FCSTS FOR TOMORROW SEEMS TO HAVE BROKEN
CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAYS RUN BUT REMAIN CONSISTENT FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
HEAVY RAINS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW RAPID MOISTURE RETURN OVR
THE AREA EARLY FRI AND THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY BASED ON THE BLENDED
TPW PRODUCT. LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...GUIDANCE INDICATES
SHORTWAVE-RIDGE ALOFT FRI WHICH WOULD ARGUE AGAINST WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL.
LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE-TROUGH FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN
NMRS/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE USVI AND EASTERN PR. WITH
GENERAL TROF PATTERN TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...VERY
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. AS
ALWAYS...TIMING OF THESE CONVECTIVE BLOWUPS IS QUITE CHALLENGING
BUT THE SCREAMING MESSAGE HERE IS FOR SIG HEAVY AND PROLONGED
RAINS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO WORSEN MID NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH
CUTS OFF ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ESTABLISHES OVER THE REGION AND MOISTURE DEEPENS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJMZ AND POSSIBLY
TJBQ DUE TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MTN OBSCURATIONS AND VARIABLE
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THE SHRA/TSRA. WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE AFTER 23/23Z. THEREAFTER...PASSING SHRA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
WILL CAUSE VCSH FOR TJSJ...TIST...TISX...AS WELL AS TNCM AND TKPK.
WINDS WILL BE AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS FROM THE EAST UNTIL 24/12Z.
INCREASING THEREAFTER TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY.
&&
.MARINE...SCA REMAIN IN EFFECT BUT WILL LIKELY GO DOWN TOMORROW AS
WINDS WEAKEN BIT. TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 85 76 85 / 40 70 70 70
STT 77 86 78 85 / 40 60 70 70
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
17N.
&&
$$
25/64
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 231938
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
338 PM AST THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC INTO
THE CARIBBEAN REGION THRU MID NEXT WEEK. STRONG SFC HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MODEL FCSTS FOR TOMORROW SEEMS TO HAVE BROKEN
CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAYS RUN BUT REMAIN CONSISTENT FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
HEAVY RAINS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW RAPID MOISTURE RETURN OVR
THE AREA EARLY FRI AND THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY BASED ON THE BLENDED
TPW PRODUCT. LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...GUIDANCE INDICATES
SHORTWAVE-RIDGE ALOFT FRI WHICH WOULD ARGUE AGAINST WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL.
LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE-TROUGH FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN
NMRS/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE USVI AND EASTERN PR. WITH
GENERAL TROF PATTERN TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...VERY
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. AS
ALWAYS...TIMING OF THESE CONVECTIVE BLOWUPS IS QUITE CHALLENGING
BUT THE SCREAMING MESSAGE HERE IS FOR SIG HEAVY AND PROLONGED
RAINS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO WORSEN MID NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH
CUTS OFF ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ESTABLISHES OVER THE REGION AND MOISTURE DEEPENS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJMZ AND POSSIBLY
TJBQ DUE TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MTN OBSCURATIONS AND VARIABLE
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THE SHRA/TSRA. WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE AFTER 23/23Z. THEREAFTER...PASSING SHRA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
WILL CAUSE VCSH FOR TJSJ...TIST...TISX...AS WELL AS TNCM AND TKPK.
WINDS WILL BE AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS FROM THE EAST UNTIL 24/12Z.
INCREASING THEREAFTER TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY.
&&
.MARINE...SCA REMAIN IN EFFECT BUT WILL LIKELY GO DOWN TOMORROW AS
WINDS WEAKEN BIT. TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 85 76 85 / 40 70 70 70
STT 77 86 78 85 / 40 60 70 70
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
17N.
&&
$$
25/64
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 231546
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1146 AM AST THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...PASSING SHOWERS HAVE STARTED AFFECTING THE NORTHEASTERN
MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO. THERE IS ALSO SOME DEVELOPING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS WILL SOON DEVELOP OVER THAT
AREA.
LATEST SOUNDING INDICATES THAT THE MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LEVELS
HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT FROM THAT OF YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TEMPO MVFR OR POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
TJBQ AND TJMZ DUE TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION...WHILE PASSING SHRA MAY
CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJSJ. MTN OBSCURATIONS AND VARIABLE
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THE SHRA/TSRA. WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 23/23Z.
&&
.MARINE...NO CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE STILL IN EFFECT AND ELSEWHERE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE UP TO 6 FEET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM AST THU MAY 23 2013/
SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A BRANCH OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET SPLITS OFF
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SENDS A RIPPLED FLOW OVER THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. ALSO ON SATURDAY A LOW MOVES OFFSHORE FROM
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND KEEPS FLOW CYCLONIC OVER THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW FORMS EAST OF GEORGIA IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY AND DEEPENS CAUSING FLOW TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA.
AT MID LEVELS...LIGHT BUT MOSTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS NOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CARRIES AMPLE MOISTURE. FLOW BECOMES LIGHT
AND VARIABLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THEN GAINS COPIOUS MOISTURE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL WESTERN ATLANTIC
FADES INTO A STRONGER HIGH IN THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY
SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE MAINTAINS A PRESENCE IN THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN. THE RESULTING GRADIENT MAINTAINS MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED FROM
THE EAST. TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BEGINNING
ON MONDAY...DRIFTS NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE WEEK AND PULLS EVEN
MORE MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLOW. A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS EARLY NEXT MONTH AND CONNECTS
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO MAINTAIN THE MOIST FLOW.
DISCUSSION...SHOWERS GRADUALLY FADED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TO
THE SOUTH...BUT CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
MOISTURE SLIPPING SOUTHWEST AND DRIER AIR COMING FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER SAINT CROIX HAS FALLEN TO
BELOW 1.5 INCHES AND SOUNDERS REVEAL THAT MOISTURE AMOUNTS OVER
SAN JUAN WERE ALSO FALLING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDINESS
FOLLOWING THE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND CLEARING IS TAKING
PLACE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THE GFS ALSO
SHOWS DRYING BETWEEN 900 AND 675 MB TILL ABOUT 24/06Z. ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL INITIALLY FAVOR IMPROVED WEATHER...STRONG HEATING FROM
THE SUN FROM NEARLY PERPENDICULAR NOON TIME SOLAR ANGLES WILL
CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT OVER THE AREA JUST INLAND
FROM THE NORTH COAST OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO AND
SHORTLY THEREAFTER OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IN AREAS ALREADY SATURATED FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO
DAYS OF HEAVY RAINS. ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE FROM 600-300 MB...LIMITED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THERE
MAY BE LESS MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED FROM THIS PROFILE.
MOISTURE RETURNS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS TIME SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MAY BE PRESENT TO CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING OVER THE WEEKEND AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR DO OCCUR OVER THE
NEXT WEEK...LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST
OF GEORGIA AT UPPER LEVELS WEDNESDAY WILL INDUCE A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THAT WILL MAKE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN...TAPPING THE BETTER STREAMS OF MOISTURE OUT OF
THE TROPICS AND GENERATING CONTINUED SCENARIOS FOR HEAVY RAINS
OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION...
SCT-BKN SKIES ACROSS THE FLYING AREA ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FCST
PERIOD. AFTER 23/17Z MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ DUE TO SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...VCTS ARE
EXPECTED FOR TJSJ. WINDS MAINLY FROM THE EAST BETWEEN 10-25 KT UP
TO 5 KFT.
MARINE...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS...SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP IN
THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. THESE WILL
SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT BY SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 85 76 / 40 40 70 60
STT 87 77 86 78 / 20 40 60 50
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
17N.
&&
$$
25/64
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 231546
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1146 AM AST THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...PASSING SHOWERS HAVE STARTED AFFECTING THE NORTHEASTERN
MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO. THERE IS ALSO SOME DEVELOPING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS WILL SOON DEVELOP OVER THAT
AREA.
LATEST SOUNDING INDICATES THAT THE MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LEVELS
HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT FROM THAT OF YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TEMPO MVFR OR POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
TJBQ AND TJMZ DUE TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION...WHILE PASSING SHRA MAY
CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJSJ. MTN OBSCURATIONS AND VARIABLE
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THE SHRA/TSRA. WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 23/23Z.
&&
.MARINE...NO CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE STILL IN EFFECT AND ELSEWHERE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE UP TO 6 FEET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM AST THU MAY 23 2013/
SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A BRANCH OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET SPLITS OFF
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SENDS A RIPPLED FLOW OVER THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. ALSO ON SATURDAY A LOW MOVES OFFSHORE FROM
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND KEEPS FLOW CYCLONIC OVER THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW FORMS EAST OF GEORGIA IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY AND DEEPENS CAUSING FLOW TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA.
AT MID LEVELS...LIGHT BUT MOSTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS NOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CARRIES AMPLE MOISTURE. FLOW BECOMES LIGHT
AND VARIABLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THEN GAINS COPIOUS MOISTURE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL WESTERN ATLANTIC
FADES INTO A STRONGER HIGH IN THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY
SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE MAINTAINS A PRESENCE IN THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN. THE RESULTING GRADIENT MAINTAINS MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED FROM
THE EAST. TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BEGINNING
ON MONDAY...DRIFTS NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE WEEK AND PULLS EVEN
MORE MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLOW. A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS EARLY NEXT MONTH AND CONNECTS
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO MAINTAIN THE MOIST FLOW.
DISCUSSION...SHOWERS GRADUALLY FADED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TO
THE SOUTH...BUT CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
MOISTURE SLIPPING SOUTHWEST AND DRIER AIR COMING FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER SAINT CROIX HAS FALLEN TO
BELOW 1.5 INCHES AND SOUNDERS REVEAL THAT MOISTURE AMOUNTS OVER
SAN JUAN WERE ALSO FALLING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDINESS
FOLLOWING THE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND CLEARING IS TAKING
PLACE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THE GFS ALSO
SHOWS DRYING BETWEEN 900 AND 675 MB TILL ABOUT 24/06Z. ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL INITIALLY FAVOR IMPROVED WEATHER...STRONG HEATING FROM
THE SUN FROM NEARLY PERPENDICULAR NOON TIME SOLAR ANGLES WILL
CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT OVER THE AREA JUST INLAND
FROM THE NORTH COAST OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO AND
SHORTLY THEREAFTER OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IN AREAS ALREADY SATURATED FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO
DAYS OF HEAVY RAINS. ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE FROM 600-300 MB...LIMITED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THERE
MAY BE LESS MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED FROM THIS PROFILE.
MOISTURE RETURNS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS TIME SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MAY BE PRESENT TO CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING OVER THE WEEKEND AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR DO OCCUR OVER THE
NEXT WEEK...LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST
OF GEORGIA AT UPPER LEVELS WEDNESDAY WILL INDUCE A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THAT WILL MAKE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN...TAPPING THE BETTER STREAMS OF MOISTURE OUT OF
THE TROPICS AND GENERATING CONTINUED SCENARIOS FOR HEAVY RAINS
OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION...
SCT-BKN SKIES ACROSS THE FLYING AREA ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FCST
PERIOD. AFTER 23/17Z MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ DUE TO SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...VCTS ARE
EXPECTED FOR TJSJ. WINDS MAINLY FROM THE EAST BETWEEN 10-25 KT UP
TO 5 KFT.
MARINE...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS...SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP IN
THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. THESE WILL
SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT BY SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 85 76 / 40 40 70 60
STT 87 77 86 78 / 20 40 60 50
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
17N.
&&
$$
25/64
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230916
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A BRANCH OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET SPLITS OFF
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SENDS A RIPPLED FLOW OVER THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. ALSO ON SATURDAY A LOW MOVES OFFSHORE FROM
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND KEEPS FLOW CYCLONIC OVER THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW FORMS EAST OF GEORGIA IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY AND DEEPENS CAUSING FLOW TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA.
AT MID LEVELS...LIGHT BUT MOSTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS NOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CARRIES AMPLE MOISTURE. FLOW BECOMES LIGHT
AND VARIABLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THEN GAINS COPIOUS MOISTURE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL WESTERN ATLANTIC
FADES INTO A STRONGER HIGH IN THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY
SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE MAINTAINS A PRESENCE IN THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN. THE RESULTING GRADIENT MAINTAINS MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED FROM
THE EAST. TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BEGINNING
ON MONDAY...DRIFTS NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE WEEK AND PULLS EVEN
MORE MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLOW. A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS EARLY NEXT MONTH AND CONNECTS
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO MAINTAIN THE MOIST FLOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS GRADUALLY FADED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TO
THE SOUTH...BUT CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
MOISTURE SLIPPING SOUTHWEST AND DRIER AIR COMING FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER SAINT CROIX HAS FALLEN TO
BELOW 1.5 INCHES AND SOUNDERS REVEAL THAT MOISTURE AMOUNTS OVER
SAN JUAN WERE ALSO FALLING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDINESS
FOLLOWING THE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND CLEARING IS TAKING
PLACE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THE GFS ALSO
SHOWS DRYING BETWEEN 900 AND 675 MB TILL ABOUT 24/06Z. ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL INITIALLY FAVOR IMPROVED WEATHER...STRONG HEATING FROM
THE SUN FROM NEARLY PERPENDICULAR NOON TIME SOLAR ANGLES WILL
CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT OVER THE AREA JUST INLAND
FROM THE NORTH COAST OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO AND
SHORTLY THEREAFTER OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IN AREAS ALREADY SATURATED FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO
DAYS OF HEAVY RAINS. ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE FROM 600-300 MB...LIMITED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THERE
MAY BE LESS MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED FROM THIS PROFILE.
MOISTURE RETURNS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS TIME SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MAY BE PRESENT TO CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING OVER THE WEEKEND AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR DO OCCUR OVER THE
NEXT WEEK...LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST
OF GEORGIA AT UPPER LEVELS WEDNESDAY WILL INDUCE A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THAT WILL MAKE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN...TAPPING THE BETTER STREAMS OF MOISTURE OUT OF
THE TROPICS AND GENERATING CONTINUED SCENARIOS FOR HEAVY RAINS
OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCT-BKN SKIES ACROSS THE FLYING AREA ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FCST
PERIOD. AFTER 23/17Z MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ DUE TO SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...VCTS ARE
EXPECTED FOR TJSJ. WINDS MAINLY FROM THE EAST BETWEEN 10-25 KT UP
TO 5 KFT.
&&
.MARINE...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS...SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP IN
THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. THESE WILL
SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT BY SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 85 76 / 40 40 50 60
STT 87 77 86 78 / 20 40 50 50
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
17N.
&&
$$
13/12
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230916
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A BRANCH OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET SPLITS OFF
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SENDS A RIPPLED FLOW OVER THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. ALSO ON SATURDAY A LOW MOVES OFFSHORE FROM
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND KEEPS FLOW CYCLONIC OVER THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW FORMS EAST OF GEORGIA IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY AND DEEPENS CAUSING FLOW TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA.
AT MID LEVELS...LIGHT BUT MOSTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS NOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CARRIES AMPLE MOISTURE. FLOW BECOMES LIGHT
AND VARIABLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THEN GAINS COPIOUS MOISTURE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL WESTERN ATLANTIC
FADES INTO A STRONGER HIGH IN THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY
SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE MAINTAINS A PRESENCE IN THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN. THE RESULTING GRADIENT MAINTAINS MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED FROM
THE EAST. TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BEGINNING
ON MONDAY...DRIFTS NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE WEEK AND PULLS EVEN
MORE MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLOW. A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS EARLY NEXT MONTH AND CONNECTS
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO MAINTAIN THE MOIST FLOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS GRADUALLY FADED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TO
THE SOUTH...BUT CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
MOISTURE SLIPPING SOUTHWEST AND DRIER AIR COMING FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER SAINT CROIX HAS FALLEN TO
BELOW 1.5 INCHES AND SOUNDERS REVEAL THAT MOISTURE AMOUNTS OVER
SAN JUAN WERE ALSO FALLING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDINESS
FOLLOWING THE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND CLEARING IS TAKING
PLACE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THE GFS ALSO
SHOWS DRYING BETWEEN 900 AND 675 MB TILL ABOUT 24/06Z. ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL INITIALLY FAVOR IMPROVED WEATHER...STRONG HEATING FROM
THE SUN FROM NEARLY PERPENDICULAR NOON TIME SOLAR ANGLES WILL
CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT OVER THE AREA JUST INLAND
FROM THE NORTH COAST OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO AND
SHORTLY THEREAFTER OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IN AREAS ALREADY SATURATED FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO
DAYS OF HEAVY RAINS. ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE FROM 600-300 MB...LIMITED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THERE
MAY BE LESS MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED FROM THIS PROFILE.
MOISTURE RETURNS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS TIME SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MAY BE PRESENT TO CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING OVER THE WEEKEND AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR DO OCCUR OVER THE
NEXT WEEK...LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST
OF GEORGIA AT UPPER LEVELS WEDNESDAY WILL INDUCE A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THAT WILL MAKE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN...TAPPING THE BETTER STREAMS OF MOISTURE OUT OF
THE TROPICS AND GENERATING CONTINUED SCENARIOS FOR HEAVY RAINS
OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCT-BKN SKIES ACROSS THE FLYING AREA ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FCST
PERIOD. AFTER 23/17Z MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ DUE TO SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...VCTS ARE
EXPECTED FOR TJSJ. WINDS MAINLY FROM THE EAST BETWEEN 10-25 KT UP
TO 5 KFT.
&&
.MARINE...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS...SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP IN
THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. THESE WILL
SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT BY SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 85 76 / 40 40 50 60
STT 87 77 86 78 / 20 40 50 50
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
17N.
&&
$$
13/12
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230302 RRA
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1102 PM AST WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...VERY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS PUERTO RICO TODAY. MOST OF THE
ISLAND RECEIVED SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WAS FOCUSED MAINLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.
A DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.AVIATION...BKN-OVC SKIES WITH A LAYER OF ALTOSTRATUS AT FL050
DOMINATE THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. HOWEVER...VFR WITH A FEW -RA
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE TAFS SITES OVERNIGHT.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR PR.
23/00Z TJSJ RAOB SHOWED LLVL WIND FM E AT 10-25 KT BELOW FL100.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS OF 7 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUES IN EFFECT ACROSS
AMZ710..AMZ 722 AND AMZ 732.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM AST WED MAY 22 2013/
SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK...CAUSING MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN THIS WEEKEND
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...AN AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...INCREASING
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS AS WELL. GIVEN THE CURRENT SETUP OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS WEEKEND AS A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES IN AND IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TERMINALS IN PUERTO
RICO UNTIL AT LEAST 22/20Z. SHRA AND TSRA ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. ALSO...SOME OBSC MTNS
ACROSS INTERIOR OF PR. VFR EXPECTED EVERYWHERE AFT 22/20Z.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AS THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS...SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET AND
WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 85 77 85 / 30 40 30 50
STT 77 87 77 88 / 30 30 30 50
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
17N.
&&
$$
11/71
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230302 RRA
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1102 PM AST WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...VERY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS PUERTO RICO TODAY. MOST OF THE
ISLAND RECEIVED SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WAS FOCUSED MAINLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.
A DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.AVIATION...BKN-OVC SKIES WITH A LAYER OF ALTOSTRATUS AT FL050
DOMINATE THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. HOWEVER...VFR WITH A FEW -RA
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE TAFS SITES OVERNIGHT.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR PR.
23/00Z TJSJ RAOB SHOWED LLVL WIND FM E AT 10-25 KT BELOW FL100.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS OF 7 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUES IN EFFECT ACROSS
AMZ710..AMZ 722 AND AMZ 732.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM AST WED MAY 22 2013/
SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK...CAUSING MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN THIS WEEKEND
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...AN AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...INCREASING
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS AS WELL. GIVEN THE CURRENT SETUP OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS WEEKEND AS A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES IN AND IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TERMINALS IN PUERTO
RICO UNTIL AT LEAST 22/20Z. SHRA AND TSRA ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. ALSO...SOME OBSC MTNS
ACROSS INTERIOR OF PR. VFR EXPECTED EVERYWHERE AFT 22/20Z.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AS THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS...SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET AND
WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 85 77 85 / 30 40 30 50
STT 77 87 77 88 / 30 30 30 50
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
17N.
&&
$$
11/71
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 221925
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
325 PM AST WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK...CAUSING MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN THIS WEEKEND
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...AN AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...INCREASING
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS AS WELL. GIVEN THE CURRENT SETUP OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS WEEKEND AS A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES IN AND IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TERMINALS IN PUERTO
RICO UNTIL AT LEAST 22/20Z. SHRA AND TSRA ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. ALSO...SOME OBSC MTNS
ACROSS INTERIOR OF PR. VFR EXPECTED EVERYWHERE AFT 22/20Z.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AS THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS...SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET AND
WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 85 77 85 / 30 40 30 50
STT 77 87 77 88 / 30 30 30 50
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
SOUTHWARD TO 17N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM
TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.
&&
$$
15/25
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 221925
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
325 PM AST WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK...CAUSING MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN THIS WEEKEND
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...AN AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...INCREASING
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS AS WELL. GIVEN THE CURRENT SETUP OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS WEEKEND AS A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES IN AND IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TERMINALS IN PUERTO
RICO UNTIL AT LEAST 22/20Z. SHRA AND TSRA ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. ALSO...SOME OBSC MTNS
ACROSS INTERIOR OF PR. VFR EXPECTED EVERYWHERE AFT 22/20Z.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AS THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS...SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET AND
WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 85 77 85 / 30 40 30 50
STT 77 87 77 88 / 30 30 30 50
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
SOUTHWARD TO 17N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM
TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.
&&
$$
15/25
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 221513
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1113 AM AST WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO
IMPACT THE REGION...ON TRACK WITH PREVIOUS PACKAGE. SOME
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS...EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED
FOR REMAINDER OF MORNING INTO EARLY AFT.
&&
.AVIATION...NO CHANGES TO PREV...CURRENTLY...VFR AT ALL SITES IN
PASSING SHWRS. BY AFT...MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DUE TO SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM AST WED MAY 22 2013/
SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET
STREAM MOVES OVER AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH AN UPSTREAM
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ON FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE JET PASSING TO THE NORTH.
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OUT OF THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND AND SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS HIGH DRIFTS
EAST DURING THE WEEK AND IS JOINED ON THURSDAY BY ANOTHER HIGH
LEAVING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH FLOW TURNS
DECIDEDLY MORE SOUTHEAST LATE NEXT WEEK THIS PATTERN KEEPS
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH OUT THE NEXT 7
DAYS...WITH A FAIRLY CONTINUOUS INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
DISCUSSION...A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOPED DURING
THE NIGHT AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER THE STRIP OF COAST FROM RIO GRANDE TO VEGA BAJA. OTHER
RAIN ALSO FELL ACROSS SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
IN CULEBRA...SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED
THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO YESTERDAY BUT LEFT AN
ARC OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SAME THAT EXTENDED OVER 600 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE TROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO FUEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLANDS AND
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE ISLANDS AND SPECIFICALLY OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LUQUILLO MOUNTAINS. THERE
IS A SHARP GRADIENT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THAT WILL
APPROACH THE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND BRING SOME RELIEF DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT AN EMBEDDED PATCH OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY AS THE ENTIRE AREA TURNS WETTER THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD AS WILL THE MAXIMUM RIVER LEVELS EACH DAY.
THE GFS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT MORE MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND IN THE
COMING DAYS BUT IT CONTINUES TO WITHHOLD THE WETTEST WEATHER UNTIL
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THAT TIME LOWER LEVEL WINDS TURN
SOUTHEAST AND MOISTURE INCREASES CONSIDERABLY AS ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
AVIATION...
VFR AT MOST TAF SITES EXCEPT IN PASSING SHRA OVER COASTAL
WATERS BETWEEN EASTERN PR AND THE USVI TIL 22/14Z. SCT-BKN BETWEEN
FL020-FL120 DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR.
MAINLY EAST WINDS 10-25 KT FROM SFC UP 4 KFT. GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AFTER 12Z AND MVFR TO BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR.
MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
AS WINDS INCREASE. THE THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE EASTERN
PASSAGES WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS RAMPING UP
BETWEEN 9 AM AND 3 PM AST AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE JUST BELOW 22 KNOTS SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH 7 TO 8 FEET TODAY AND THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY...AS THE MODELS CONTINUE WET AND RAINS CONTINUE TO KEEP
SOILS ALONG THE NORTH...NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST COASTS NEAR
SATURATION...THE ADDITIONAL PERSISTENT MOISTURE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK COULD CREATE MORE SERIOUS FLOODING PROBLEMS GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL IF THE GFS SOLUTIONS HOLD. THIS
SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BY FORECASTERS AND
REVIEWED BY OUR HYDROLOGIST WITH FURTHER ACTIONS TO BE CONSIDERED
AND COORDINATED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 77 87 77 / 50 30 40 30
STT 86 77 87 78 / 50 30 30 30
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM AST
SATURDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-CARIBBEAN
WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.
&&
$$
15/25
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 221513
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1113 AM AST WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO
IMPACT THE REGION...ON TRACK WITH PREVIOUS PACKAGE. SOME
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS...EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED
FOR REMAINDER OF MORNING INTO EARLY AFT.
&&
.AVIATION...NO CHANGES TO PREV...CURRENTLY...VFR AT ALL SITES IN
PASSING SHWRS. BY AFT...MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DUE TO SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM AST WED MAY 22 2013/
SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET
STREAM MOVES OVER AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH AN UPSTREAM
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ON FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE JET PASSING TO THE NORTH.
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OUT OF THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND AND SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS HIGH DRIFTS
EAST DURING THE WEEK AND IS JOINED ON THURSDAY BY ANOTHER HIGH
LEAVING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH FLOW TURNS
DECIDEDLY MORE SOUTHEAST LATE NEXT WEEK THIS PATTERN KEEPS
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH OUT THE NEXT 7
DAYS...WITH A FAIRLY CONTINUOUS INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
DISCUSSION...A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOPED DURING
THE NIGHT AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER THE STRIP OF COAST FROM RIO GRANDE TO VEGA BAJA. OTHER
RAIN ALSO FELL ACROSS SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
IN CULEBRA...SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED
THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO YESTERDAY BUT LEFT AN
ARC OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SAME THAT EXTENDED OVER 600 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE TROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO FUEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLANDS AND
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE ISLANDS AND SPECIFICALLY OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LUQUILLO MOUNTAINS. THERE
IS A SHARP GRADIENT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THAT WILL
APPROACH THE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND BRING SOME RELIEF DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT AN EMBEDDED PATCH OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY AS THE ENTIRE AREA TURNS WETTER THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD AS WILL THE MAXIMUM RIVER LEVELS EACH DAY.
THE GFS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT MORE MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND IN THE
COMING DAYS BUT IT CONTINUES TO WITHHOLD THE WETTEST WEATHER UNTIL
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THAT TIME LOWER LEVEL WINDS TURN
SOUTHEAST AND MOISTURE INCREASES CONSIDERABLY AS ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
AVIATION...
VFR AT MOST TAF SITES EXCEPT IN PASSING SHRA OVER COASTAL
WATERS BETWEEN EASTERN PR AND THE USVI TIL 22/14Z. SCT-BKN BETWEEN
FL020-FL120 DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR.
MAINLY EAST WINDS 10-25 KT FROM SFC UP 4 KFT. GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AFTER 12Z AND MVFR TO BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR.
MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
AS WINDS INCREASE. THE THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE EASTERN
PASSAGES WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS RAMPING UP
BETWEEN 9 AM AND 3 PM AST AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE JUST BELOW 22 KNOTS SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH 7 TO 8 FEET TODAY AND THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY...AS THE MODELS CONTINUE WET AND RAINS CONTINUE TO KEEP
SOILS ALONG THE NORTH...NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST COASTS NEAR
SATURATION...THE ADDITIONAL PERSISTENT MOISTURE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK COULD CREATE MORE SERIOUS FLOODING PROBLEMS GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL IF THE GFS SOLUTIONS HOLD. THIS
SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BY FORECASTERS AND
REVIEWED BY OUR HYDROLOGIST WITH FURTHER ACTIONS TO BE CONSIDERED
AND COORDINATED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 77 87 77 / 50 30 40 30
STT 86 77 87 78 / 50 30 30 30
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM AST
SATURDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-CARIBBEAN
WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.
&&
$$
15/25
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 220911
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
511 AM AST WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET
STREAM MOVES OVER AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH AN UPSTREAM
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ON FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE JET PASSING TO THE NORTH.
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OUT OF THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND AND SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS HIGH DRIFTS
EAST DURING THE WEEK AND IS JOINED ON THURSDAY BY ANOTHER HIGH
LEAVING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH FLOW TURNS
DECIDEDLY MORE SOUTHEAST LATE NEXT WEEK THIS PATTERN KEEPS
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH OUT THE NEXT 7
DAYS...WITH A FAIRLY CONTINUOUS INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOPED DURING
THE NIGHT AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER THE STRIP OF COAST FROM RIO GRANDE TO VEGA BAJA. OTHER
RAIN ALSO FELL ACROSS SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
IN CULEBRA...SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED
THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO YESTERDAY BUT LEFT AN
ARC OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SAME THAT EXTENDED OVER 600 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE TROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO FUEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLANDS AND
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE ISLANDS AND SPECIFICALLY OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LUQUILLO MOUNTAINS. THERE
IS A SHARP GRADIENT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THAT WILL
APPROACH THE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND BRING SOME RELIEF DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT AN EMBEDDED PATCH OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY AS THE ENTIRE AREA TURNS WETTER THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD AS WILL THE MAXIMUM RIVER LEVELS EACH DAY.
THE GFS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT MORE MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND IN THE
COMING DAYS BUT IT CONTINUES TO WITHHOLD THE WETTEST WEATHER UNTIL
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THAT TIME LOWER LEVEL WINDS TURN
SOUTHEAST AND MOISTURE INCREASES CONSIDERABLY AS ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR AT MOST TAF SITES EXCEPT IN PASSING SHRA OVER COASTAL
WATERS BETWEEN EASTERN PR AND THE USVI TIL 22/14Z. SCT-BKN BETWEEN
FL020-FL120 DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR.
MAINLY EAST WINDS 10-25 KT FROM SFC UP 4 KFT. GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AFTER 12Z AND MVFR TO BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
AS WINDS INCREASE. THE THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE EASTERN
PASSAGES WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS RAMPING UP
BETWEEN 9 AM AND 3 PM AST AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE JUST BELOW 22 KNOTS SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH 7 TO 8 FEET TODAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...AS THE MODELS CONTINUE WET AND RAINS CONTINUE TO KEEP
SOILS ALONG THE NORTH...NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST COASTS NEAR
SATURATION...THE ADDITIONAL PERSISTENT MOISTURE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK COULD CREATE MORE SERIOUS FLOODING PROBLEMS GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL IF THE GFS SOLUTIONS HOLD. THIS
SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BY FORECASTERS AND
REVIEWED BY OUR HYDROLOGIST WITH FURTHER ACTIONS TO BE CONSIDERED
AND COORDINATED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 77 87 77 / 50 30 40 30
STT 86 77 87 78 / 50 30 30 30
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM AST
SATURDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-CARIBBEAN
WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM AST SATURDAY
FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.
&&
$$
13/12
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 220911
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
511 AM AST WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET
STREAM MOVES OVER AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH AN UPSTREAM
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ON FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE JET PASSING TO THE NORTH.
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OUT OF THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND AND SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS HIGH DRIFTS
EAST DURING THE WEEK AND IS JOINED ON THURSDAY BY ANOTHER HIGH
LEAVING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH FLOW TURNS
DECIDEDLY MORE SOUTHEAST LATE NEXT WEEK THIS PATTERN KEEPS
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH OUT THE NEXT 7
DAYS...WITH A FAIRLY CONTINUOUS INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOPED DURING
THE NIGHT AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER THE STRIP OF COAST FROM RIO GRANDE TO VEGA BAJA. OTHER
RAIN ALSO FELL ACROSS SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
IN CULEBRA...SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED
THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO YESTERDAY BUT LEFT AN
ARC OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SAME THAT EXTENDED OVER 600 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE TROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO FUEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLANDS AND
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE ISLANDS AND SPECIFICALLY OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LUQUILLO MOUNTAINS. THERE
IS A SHARP GRADIENT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THAT WILL
APPROACH THE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND BRING SOME RELIEF DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT AN EMBEDDED PATCH OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY AS THE ENTIRE AREA TURNS WETTER THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD AS WILL THE MAXIMUM RIVER LEVELS EACH DAY.
THE GFS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT MORE MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND IN THE
COMING DAYS BUT IT CONTINUES TO WITHHOLD THE WETTEST WEATHER UNTIL
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THAT TIME LOWER LEVEL WINDS TURN
SOUTHEAST AND MOISTURE INCREASES CONSIDERABLY AS ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR AT MOST TAF SITES EXCEPT IN PASSING SHRA OVER COASTAL
WATERS BETWEEN EASTERN PR AND THE USVI TIL 22/14Z. SCT-BKN BETWEEN
FL020-FL120 DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR.
MAINLY EAST WINDS 10-25 KT FROM SFC UP 4 KFT. GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AFTER 12Z AND MVFR TO BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
AS WINDS INCREASE. THE THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE EASTERN
PASSAGES WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS RAMPING UP
BETWEEN 9 AM AND 3 PM AST AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE JUST BELOW 22 KNOTS SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH 7 TO 8 FEET TODAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...AS THE MODELS CONTINUE WET AND RAINS CONTINUE TO KEEP
SOILS ALONG THE NORTH...NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST COASTS NEAR
SATURATION...THE ADDITIONAL PERSISTENT MOISTURE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK COULD CREATE MORE SERIOUS FLOODING PROBLEMS GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL IF THE GFS SOLUTIONS HOLD. THIS
SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BY FORECASTERS AND
REVIEWED BY OUR HYDROLOGIST WITH FURTHER ACTIONS TO BE CONSIDERED
AND COORDINATED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 77 87 77 / 50 30 40 30
STT 86 77 87 78 / 50 30 30 30
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM AST
SATURDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-CARIBBEAN
WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM AST SATURDAY
FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.
&&
$$
13/12
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 220213
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1013 PM AST TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...VERY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. SEVERAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED...WITH EVEN A FLASH FLOOD WARNING ISSUED
FOR THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. FORTUNATELY...ALL THIS ACTIVITY
DISSIPATED JUST AFTER SUNSET. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO SHORT
TERM GRIDS TO ADJUST FORECAST WITH ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 22/12Z. SOME PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER
TNCM...TKPK...AND TIST.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AT 7 FEET ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. SEAS OF 6 FEET OT LESS AND WINDS OF 20
KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 834 PM AST TUE MAY 21 2013/
UPDATE...MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OR
MOVED AWAY. AT THIS MOMENT THE DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN WATERS OF OUR CWA.
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AVIATION...ALTHOUGH BRIEFED PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR OVER THE
TIST AND TISX...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 22/12Z.
MARINE...MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED TO A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ARE AFFECTING THE OFF SHORE CARIBBEAN LOCAL
WATERS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM AST TUE MAY 21 2013/
SYNOPSIS...A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND REGIONAL WATERS AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST...AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STREAM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN DETECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FAST MOVERS...AND THEREFORE NO MAJOR FLOOD
PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF FLS`S HAVE
BEEN ISSUED.
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE...NOW LOCATED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AT AROUND 10-15 KNOTS...AND AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AFOREMENTIONED
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SCATTERED/LOCALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO
RICO...SAINT CROIX AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
AS UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...WET AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME...A SHORT BREAK IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASE. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL AFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING TO RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO
RICO. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BY THE WEEKEND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION...VFR ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE TERMINAL
EXCEPT IN SHRA/TSRA NEAR TJMZ ALONG WITH SOME OBSC MTNS ACROSS
INTERIOR OF PR. VFR CONDS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE AFT 21/22Z. LLVL
WIND FM E TO ESE AT 10-20 KT...HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30 KT NEAR
SHRA/TSRA.
MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR THE MARINERS IS
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING PRODUCING BY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGIONAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE CARIBBEAN LOCAL WATERS. SEAS WILL
INCREASE TO 7 FEET OVER MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 86 78 86 / 20 30 30 30
STT 77 87 77 87 / 50 50 30 30
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM AST SATURDAY
FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM AST SATURDAY
FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.
&&
$$
10/71
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 220213
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1013 PM AST TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...VERY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. SEVERAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED...WITH EVEN A FLASH FLOOD WARNING ISSUED
FOR THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. FORTUNATELY...ALL THIS ACTIVITY
DISSIPATED JUST AFTER SUNSET. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO SHORT
TERM GRIDS TO ADJUST FORECAST WITH ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 22/12Z. SOME PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER
TNCM...TKPK...AND TIST.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AT 7 FEET ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. SEAS OF 6 FEET OT LESS AND WINDS OF 20
KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 834 PM AST TUE MAY 21 2013/
UPDATE...MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OR
MOVED AWAY. AT THIS MOMENT THE DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN WATERS OF OUR CWA.
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AVIATION...ALTHOUGH BRIEFED PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR OVER THE
TIST AND TISX...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 22/12Z.
MARINE...MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED TO A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ARE AFFECTING THE OFF SHORE CARIBBEAN LOCAL
WATERS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM AST TUE MAY 21 2013/
SYNOPSIS...A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND REGIONAL WATERS AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST...AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STREAM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN DETECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FAST MOVERS...AND THEREFORE NO MAJOR FLOOD
PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF FLS`S HAVE
BEEN ISSUED.
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE...NOW LOCATED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AT AROUND 10-15 KNOTS...AND AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AFOREMENTIONED
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SCATTERED/LOCALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO
RICO...SAINT CROIX AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
AS UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...WET AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME...A SHORT BREAK IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASE. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL AFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING TO RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO
RICO. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BY THE WEEKEND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION...VFR ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE TERMINAL
EXCEPT IN SHRA/TSRA NEAR TJMZ ALONG WITH SOME OBSC MTNS ACROSS
INTERIOR OF PR. VFR CONDS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE AFT 21/22Z. LLVL
WIND FM E TO ESE AT 10-20 KT...HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30 KT NEAR
SHRA/TSRA.
MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR THE MARINERS IS
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING PRODUCING BY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGIONAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE CARIBBEAN LOCAL WATERS. SEAS WILL
INCREASE TO 7 FEET OVER MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 86 78 86 / 20 30 30 30
STT 77 87 77 87 / 50 50 30 30
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM AST SATURDAY
FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM AST SATURDAY
FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.
&&
$$
10/71
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 220034
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
834 PM AST TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OR
MOVED AWAY. AT THIS MOMENT THE DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN WATERS OF OUR CWA.
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...ALTHOUGH BRIEFED PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR OVER THE
TIST AND TISX...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 22/12Z.
&&
.MARINE...MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED TO A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ARE AFFECTING THE OFF SHORE CARIBBEAN LOCAL
WATERS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM AST TUE MAY 21 2013/
SYNOPSIS...A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND REGIONAL WATERS AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST...AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STREAM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN DETECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FAST MOVERS...AND THEREFORE NO MAJOR FLOOD
PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF FLS`S HAVE
BEEN ISSUED.
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE...NOW LOCATED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AT AROUND 10-15 KNOTS...AND AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AFOREMENTIONED
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SCATTERED/LOCALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO
RICO...SAINT CROIX AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
AS UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...WET AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME...A SHORT BREAK IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASE. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL AFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING TO RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO
RICO. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BY THE WEEKEND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION...VFR ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE TERMINAL
EXCEPT IN SHRA/TSRA NEAR TJMZ ALONG WITH SOME OBSC MTNS ACROSS
INTERIOR OF PR. VFR CONDS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE AFT 21/22Z. LLVL
WIND FM E TO ESE AT 10-20 KT...HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30 KT NEAR
SHRA/TSRA.
MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR THE MARINERS IS
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING PRODUCING BY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGIONAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE CARIBBEAN LOCAL WATERS. SEAS WILL
INCREASE TO 7 FEET OVER MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 86 78 86 / 40 40 30 30
STT 77 87 77 87 / 50 50 30 30
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM AST SATURDAY
FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM AST SATURDAY
FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.
&&
$$
10/71
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 220034
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
834 PM AST TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OR
MOVED AWAY. AT THIS MOMENT THE DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN WATERS OF OUR CWA.
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...ALTHOUGH BRIEFED PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR OVER THE
TIST AND TISX...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 22/12Z.
&&
.MARINE...MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED TO A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ARE AFFECTING THE OFF SHORE CARIBBEAN LOCAL
WATERS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM AST TUE MAY 21 2013/
SYNOPSIS...A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND REGIONAL WATERS AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST...AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STREAM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN DETECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FAST MOVERS...AND THEREFORE NO MAJOR FLOOD
PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF FLS`S HAVE
BEEN ISSUED.
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE...NOW LOCATED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AT AROUND 10-15 KNOTS...AND AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AFOREMENTIONED
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SCATTERED/LOCALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO
RICO...SAINT CROIX AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
AS UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...WET AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME...A SHORT BREAK IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASE. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL AFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING TO RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO
RICO. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BY THE WEEKEND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION...VFR ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE TERMINAL
EXCEPT IN SHRA/TSRA NEAR TJMZ ALONG WITH SOME OBSC MTNS ACROSS
INTERIOR OF PR. VFR CONDS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE AFT 21/22Z. LLVL
WIND FM E TO ESE AT 10-20 KT...HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30 KT NEAR
SHRA/TSRA.
MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR THE MARINERS IS
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING PRODUCING BY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGIONAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE CARIBBEAN LOCAL WATERS. SEAS WILL
INCREASE TO 7 FEET OVER MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 86 78 86 / 40 40 30 30
STT 77 87 77 87 / 50 50 30 30
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM AST SATURDAY
FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM AST SATURDAY
FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.
&&
$$
10/71
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 211900
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND REGIONAL WATERS AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST...AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STREAM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN DETECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FAST MOVERS...AND THEREFORE NO MAJOR FLOOD
PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF FLS`S HAVE
BEEN ISSUED.
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE...NOW LOCATED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AT AROUND 10-15 KNOTS...AND AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AFOREMENTIONED
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SCATTERED/LOCALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO
RICO...SAINT CROIX AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
AS UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...WET AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME...A SHORT BREAK IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASE. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL AFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING TO RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO
RICO. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BY THE WEEKEND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE TERMINAL
EXCEPT IN SHRA/TSRA NEAR TJMZ ALONG WITH SOME OBSC MTNS ACROSS
INTERIOR OF PR. VFR CONDS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE AFT 21/22Z. LLVL
WIND FM E TO ESE AT 10-20 KT...HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30 KT NEAR
SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR THE MARINERS IS
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING PRODUCING BY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGIONAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE CARIBBEAN LOCAL WATERS. SEAS WILL
INCREASE TO 7 FEET OVER MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 86 78 86 / 40 40 30 30
STT 77 87 77 87 / 50 50 30 30
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM AST SATURDAY
FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM AST SATURDAY
FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.
&&
$$
11/23
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 211900
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND REGIONAL WATERS AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST...AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STREAM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN DETECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FAST MOVERS...AND THEREFORE NO MAJOR FLOOD
PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF FLS`S HAVE
BEEN ISSUED.
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE...NOW LOCATED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AT AROUND 10-15 KNOTS...AND AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AFOREMENTIONED
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SCATTERED/LOCALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO
RICO...SAINT CROIX AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
AS UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...WET AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME...A SHORT BREAK IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASE. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL AFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING TO RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO
RICO. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BY THE WEEKEND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE TERMINAL
EXCEPT IN SHRA/TSRA NEAR TJMZ ALONG WITH SOME OBSC MTNS ACROSS
INTERIOR OF PR. VFR CONDS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE AFT 21/22Z. LLVL
WIND FM E TO ESE AT 10-20 KT...HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30 KT NEAR
SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR THE MARINERS IS
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING PRODUCING BY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGIONAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE CARIBBEAN LOCAL WATERS. SEAS WILL
INCREASE TO 7 FEET OVER MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 86 78 86 / 40 40 30 30
STT 77 87 77 87 / 50 50 30 30
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM AST SATURDAY
FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM AST SATURDAY
FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.
&&
$$
11/23
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 211529
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1129 AM AST TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE EAST AND NORTH
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS
OBSERVED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO...WHERE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS RANGED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.75 INCHES. STATIONS ACROSS
THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO MEASURED GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH
WITH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUE
TO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO
RICO...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY FOCUSING OVER THE INTERIOR AND
NORTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO
THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA WILL PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDS
IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ AND POSSIBLY TJSJ AND TJPS. ELSEWHERE...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS NEAR THE SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR THE MARINERS IS
THE CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING PRODUCING BY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGIONAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE CARIBBEAN LOCAL WATERS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM AST TUE MAY 21 2013/
SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHENS...MAINTAINING A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND
FLOW OVER THE REGION UNTIL THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE
OCCASIONALLY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
INCREASING THE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE FA.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...DEPICTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE
USVI AND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. FEW OF THESE SHOWERS ALSO
AFFECTED THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT
THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR WERE GENERALLY MINIMAL. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL EFFECT TOP PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND.
THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
TIGHTENS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...INCREASING THE WINDS FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS HAPPENS...EMBEDDED MOISTURE IN THE
EASTERLY TRADES WILL CROSS THE REGION OCCASIONALLY FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAY. THIS MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS APPROACHING TO THE REGION...WILL PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY DYNAMIC TO INDUCE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE USVI
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNINGS AND ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. PWAT VALUES WILL
PREVAIL CLOSE TO 1.70 INCHES TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE STEADILY TO AROUND 2.00 INCHES LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE APPROACHES TO THE REGION. ANOTHER
EASTERLY WAVE...ALONG 40 WEST THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE REGION BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. COMPUTER MODELS GUIDANCE ARE
CONSISTENT IN A WET PERIOD STARTING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION...VFR AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT IN PASSING SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVR
COASTAL WATERS EN ROUTE BTW ERN PR AND THE USVI TIL 21/14Z. SCT-BKN
CLD LYRS BTW FL020-FL120 DURNG THE MORNING HOURS WITH BRIEF MTN TOP
OBSC ACROSS THE ERN SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR.
L/LVL WIND FM 5-20 KT BLO FL150 BCMG W AND INCR W/HT ABV.
MARINE...AS WINDS INCREASE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE STARTING TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. FOR TODAY
WIND UP TO 21 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 84 77 / 40 30 40 30
STT 87 77 87 77 / 30 40 40 50
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM AST SATURDAY
FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM AST SATURDAY
FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM AST THURSDAY FOR MONA
PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT AST THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.
&&
$$
11/23
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 211529
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1129 AM AST TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE EAST AND NORTH
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS
OBSERVED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO...WHERE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS RANGED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.75 INCHES. STATIONS ACROSS
THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO MEASURED GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH
WITH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUE
TO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO
RICO...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY FOCUSING OVER THE INTERIOR AND
NORTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO
THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA WILL PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDS
IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ AND POSSIBLY TJSJ AND TJPS. ELSEWHERE...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS NEAR THE SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR THE MARINERS IS
THE CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING PRODUCING BY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGIONAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE CARIBBEAN LOCAL WATERS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM AST TUE MAY 21 2013/
SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHENS...MAINTAINING A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND
FLOW OVER THE REGION UNTIL THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE
OCCASIONALLY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
INCREASING THE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE FA.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...DEPICTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE
USVI AND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. FEW OF THESE SHOWERS ALSO
AFFECTED THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT
THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR WERE GENERALLY MINIMAL. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL EFFECT TOP PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND.
THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
TIGHTENS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...INCREASING THE WINDS FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS HAPPENS...EMBEDDED MOISTURE IN THE
EASTERLY TRADES WILL CROSS THE REGION OCCASIONALLY FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAY. THIS MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS APPROACHING TO THE REGION...WILL PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY DYNAMIC TO INDUCE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE USVI
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNINGS AND ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. PWAT VALUES WILL
PREVAIL CLOSE TO 1.70 INCHES TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE STEADILY TO AROUND 2.00 INCHES LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE APPROACHES TO THE REGION. ANOTHER
EASTERLY WAVE...ALONG 40 WEST THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE REGION BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. COMPUTER MODELS GUIDANCE ARE
CONSISTENT IN A WET PERIOD STARTING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION...VFR AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT IN PASSING SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVR
COASTAL WATERS EN ROUTE BTW ERN PR AND THE USVI TIL 21/14Z. SCT-BKN
CLD LYRS BTW FL020-FL120 DURNG THE MORNING HOURS WITH BRIEF MTN TOP
OBSC ACROSS THE ERN SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR.
L/LVL WIND FM 5-20 KT BLO FL150 BCMG W AND INCR W/HT ABV.
MARINE...AS WINDS INCREASE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE STARTING TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. FOR TODAY
WIND UP TO 21 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 84 77 / 40 30 40 30
STT 87 77 87 77 / 30 40 40 50
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM AST SATURDAY
FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM AST SATURDAY
FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM AST THURSDAY FOR MONA
PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT AST THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.
&&
$$
11/23
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 210933
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
533 AM AST TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHENS...MAINTAINING A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND
FLOW OVER THE REGION UNTIL THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE
OCCASIONALLY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
INCREASING THE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE FA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...DEPICTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE
USVI AND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. FEW OF THESE SHOWERS ALSO
AFFECTED THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT
THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR WERE GENERALLY MINIMAL. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL EFFECT TOP PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND.
THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
TIGHTENS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...INCREASING THE WINDS FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS HAPPENS...EMBEDDED MOISTURE IN THE
EASTERLY TRADES WILL CROSS THE REGION OCCASIONALLY FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAY. THIS MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS APPROACHING TO THE REGION...WILL PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY DYNAMIC TO INDUCE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE USVI
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNINGS AND ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. PWAT VALUES WILL
PREVAIL CLOSE TO 1.70 INCHES TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE STEADILY TO AROUND 2.00 INCHES LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE APPROACHES TO THE REGION. ANOTHER
EASTERLY WAVE...ALONG 40 WEST THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE REGION BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. COMPUTER MODELS GUIDANCE ARE
CONSISTENT IN A WET PERIOD STARTING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT IN PASSING SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVR
COASTAL WATERS EN ROUTE BTW ERN PR AND THE USVI TIL 21/14Z. SCT-BKN
CLD LYRS BTW FL020-FL120 DURNG THE MORNING HOURS WITH BRIEF MTN TOP
OBSC ACROSS THE ERN SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR.
L/LVL WIND FM 5-20 KT BLO FL150 BCMG W AND INCR W/HT ABV.
&&
.MARINE...AS WINDS INCREASE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE STARTING TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. FOR TODAY
WIND UP TO 21 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 84 77 / 40 30 40 30
STT 87 77 87 77 / 30 40 40 50
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM AST SATURDAY
FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM AST SATURDAY
FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM AST THURSDAY FOR MONA
PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT AST THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.
&&
$$
09/72
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 210933
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
533 AM AST TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHENS...MAINTAINING A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND
FLOW OVER THE REGION UNTIL THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE
OCCASIONALLY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
INCREASING THE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE FA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...DEPICTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE
USVI AND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. FEW OF THESE SHOWERS ALSO
AFFECTED THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT
THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR WERE GENERALLY MINIMAL. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL EFFECT TOP PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND.
THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
TIGHTENS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...INCREASING THE WINDS FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS HAPPENS...EMBEDDED MOISTURE IN THE
EASTERLY TRADES WILL CROSS THE REGION OCCASIONALLY FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAY. THIS MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS APPROACHING TO THE REGION...WILL PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY DYNAMIC TO INDUCE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE USVI
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNINGS AND ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. PWAT VALUES WILL
PREVAIL CLOSE TO 1.70 INCHES TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE STEADILY TO AROUND 2.00 INCHES LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE APPROACHES TO THE REGION. ANOTHER
EASTERLY WAVE...ALONG 40 WEST THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE REGION BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. COMPUTER MODELS GUIDANCE ARE
CONSISTENT IN A WET PERIOD STARTING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT IN PASSING SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVR
COASTAL WATERS EN ROUTE BTW ERN PR AND THE USVI TIL 21/14Z. SCT-BKN
CLD LYRS BTW FL020-FL120 DURNG THE MORNING HOURS WITH BRIEF MTN TOP
OBSC ACROSS THE ERN SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR.
L/LVL WIND FM 5-20 KT BLO FL150 BCMG W AND INCR W/HT ABV.
&&
.MARINE...AS WINDS INCREASE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE STARTING TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. FOR TODAY
WIND UP TO 21 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 84 77 / 40 30 40 30
STT 87 77 87 77 / 30 40 40 50
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM AST SATURDAY
FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM AST SATURDAY
FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM AST THURSDAY FOR MONA
PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT AST THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.
&&
$$
09/72
| 
