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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 271855
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH SAT THEN WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK AS BROAD TROUGH BECOMES DOMINANT WX FEATURE
ACROSS THE ATLC. RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BENEATH
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BEGIN TO WEAKEN EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK PROMOTING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ENHANCING MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY MAINLY TUE AND WED
WITH T-STORMS POSSIBLE. SOME DRYING EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO THU.
A SHARP TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 27/22Z IN
AND AROUND JBQ/JMZ. SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH 27/22Z BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS BUILD AGAIN NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  89  75  88 /   0   0  10  10
STT  76  86  75  85 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 271855
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH SAT THEN WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK AS BROAD TROUGH BECOMES DOMINANT WX FEATURE
ACROSS THE ATLC. RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BENEATH
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BEGIN TO WEAKEN EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK PROMOTING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ENHANCING MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY MAINLY TUE AND WED
WITH T-STORMS POSSIBLE. SOME DRYING EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO THU.
A SHARP TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 27/22Z IN
AND AROUND JBQ/JMZ. SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH 27/22Z BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS BUILD AGAIN NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  89  75  88 /   0   0  10  10
STT  76  86  75  85 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/64








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 271855
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH SAT THEN WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK AS BROAD TROUGH BECOMES DOMINANT WX FEATURE
ACROSS THE ATLC. RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BENEATH
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BEGIN TO WEAKEN EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK PROMOTING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ENHANCING MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY MAINLY TUE AND WED
WITH T-STORMS POSSIBLE. SOME DRYING EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO THU.
A SHARP TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 27/22Z IN
AND AROUND JBQ/JMZ. SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH 27/22Z BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS BUILD AGAIN NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  89  75  88 /   0   0  10  10
STT  76  86  75  85 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 271855
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH SAT THEN WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK AS BROAD TROUGH BECOMES DOMINANT WX FEATURE
ACROSS THE ATLC. RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BENEATH
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BEGIN TO WEAKEN EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK PROMOTING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ENHANCING MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY MAINLY TUE AND WED
WITH T-STORMS POSSIBLE. SOME DRYING EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO THU.
A SHARP TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 27/22Z IN
AND AROUND JBQ/JMZ. SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH 27/22Z BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS BUILD AGAIN NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  89  75  88 /   0   0  10  10
STT  76  86  75  85 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/64








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 271605
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1205 PM AST FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO SHORT
TERM GRIDS. STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER NW PR IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS RIDGE ALOFT HOLDS ACROSS
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS STILL
EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD.
BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 27/16Z AND 27/22Z
IN AND AROUND JBQ/JMZ. SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH 27/22Z
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. SMALL BOAT
OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM AST FRI MAR 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY AND THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP WITH OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS ALOFT.  HOWEVER...BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WEATHER
CONDITIONS THE UPPER RIDGE IS TO GRADUALLY ERODE IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEP/AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
FARTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR SHOWED PATCHES OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE
PREVAILING EASTERLIES. HOWEVER LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION WAS
OBSERVED OR DETECTED OVER THE LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS MORNING.

BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS A FEW LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS MAY BRUSH
THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOME OF THE ISLANDS. DURING THE REST
OF THE DAY...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
THE ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND LOCAL EFFECTS MAY STILL LEAD TO INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE OF SHORT
DURATION AND QUICK PASSING DUE TO THE INCREASING TRADES AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

OVER THE WEEKEND...MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN ON SATURDAY
AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES PREVAILING
AND LESSER CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...
LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE MODEL CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THE DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. STILL
EXPECT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. IN
ADDITION...THE GRADUAL EROSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WILL ALSO SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR TWO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING CAP INVERSION. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND NOT INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST JUST YET.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. ISOLATED -SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES. LIGHT EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AT
5-10 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS INCREASING TO AROUND 15
KNOTS AND GUSTY AFTER 27/14Z. SCATTERED SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
PR THIS AFTERNOON...INDUCING VCSH AT TJMZ...WITH POSSIBLE CIGS AT
FL040 AND TEMPO SHRA AT THE TJMZ TERMINAL AFTER 27/18Z WITH LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

MARINE...LATEST DATA FROM THE BUOY 41043 SUGGEST SEAS NOW AROUND
7 FEET AROUND 9 SECONDS AS THE EASTERLY TRADE INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION. MEANWHILE... THE LOCAL NEAR-SHORE BUOY 41053 SUGGEST SEAS
BETWEEN 3-4 FEET. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE UP TO 20
KNOTS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS
TODAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
THEREFORE EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  75  89  75 /  30  30  30  10
STT  86  75  86  75 /  30  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/64






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 271605
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1205 PM AST FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO SHORT
TERM GRIDS. STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER NW PR IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS RIDGE ALOFT HOLDS ACROSS
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS STILL
EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD.
BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 27/16Z AND 27/22Z
IN AND AROUND JBQ/JMZ. SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH 27/22Z
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. SMALL BOAT
OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM AST FRI MAR 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY AND THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP WITH OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS ALOFT.  HOWEVER...BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WEATHER
CONDITIONS THE UPPER RIDGE IS TO GRADUALLY ERODE IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEP/AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
FARTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR SHOWED PATCHES OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE
PREVAILING EASTERLIES. HOWEVER LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION WAS
OBSERVED OR DETECTED OVER THE LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS MORNING.

BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS A FEW LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS MAY BRUSH
THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOME OF THE ISLANDS. DURING THE REST
OF THE DAY...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
THE ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND LOCAL EFFECTS MAY STILL LEAD TO INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE OF SHORT
DURATION AND QUICK PASSING DUE TO THE INCREASING TRADES AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

OVER THE WEEKEND...MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN ON SATURDAY
AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES PREVAILING
AND LESSER CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...
LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE MODEL CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THE DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. STILL
EXPECT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. IN
ADDITION...THE GRADUAL EROSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WILL ALSO SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR TWO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING CAP INVERSION. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND NOT INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST JUST YET.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. ISOLATED -SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES. LIGHT EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AT
5-10 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS INCREASING TO AROUND 15
KNOTS AND GUSTY AFTER 27/14Z. SCATTERED SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
PR THIS AFTERNOON...INDUCING VCSH AT TJMZ...WITH POSSIBLE CIGS AT
FL040 AND TEMPO SHRA AT THE TJMZ TERMINAL AFTER 27/18Z WITH LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

MARINE...LATEST DATA FROM THE BUOY 41043 SUGGEST SEAS NOW AROUND
7 FEET AROUND 9 SECONDS AS THE EASTERLY TRADE INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION. MEANWHILE... THE LOCAL NEAR-SHORE BUOY 41053 SUGGEST SEAS
BETWEEN 3-4 FEET. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE UP TO 20
KNOTS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS
TODAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
THEREFORE EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  75  89  75 /  30  30  30  10
STT  86  75  86  75 /  30  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 270906
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY AND THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP WITH OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS ALOFT.  HOWEVER...BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WEATHER
CONDITIONS THE UPPER RIDGE IS TO GRADUALLY ERODE IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEP/AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
FARTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR SHOWED PATCHES OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE
PREVAILING EASTERLIES. HOWEVER LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION WAS
OBSERVED OR DETECTED OVER THE LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS MORNING.

BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS A FEW LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS MAY BRUSH
THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOME OF THE ISLANDS. DURING THE REST
OF THE DAY...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
THE ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND LOCAL EFFECTS MAY STILL LEAD TO INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE OF SHORT
DURATION AND QUICK PASSING DUE TO THE INCREASING TRADES AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

OVER THE WEEKEND...MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN ON SATURDAY
AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES PREVAILING
AND LESSER CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...
LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE MODEL CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THE DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. STILL
EXPECT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. IN
ADDITION...THE GRADUAL EROSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WILL ALSO SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR TWO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING CAP INVERSION. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND NOT INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST JUST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. ISOLATED -SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES. LIGHT EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AT
5-10 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS INCREASING TO AROUND 15
KNOTS AND GUSTY AFTER 27/14Z. SCATTERED SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
PR THIS AFTERNOON...INDUCING VCSH AT TJMZ...WITH POSSIBLE CIGS AT
FL040 AND TEMPO SHRA AT THE TJMZ TERMINAL AFTER 27/18Z WITH LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST DATA FROM THE BUOY 41043 SUGGEST SEAS NOW AROUND
7 FEET AROUND 9 SECONDS AS THE EASTERLY TRADE INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION. MEANWHILE... THE LOCAL NEAR-SHORE BUOY 41053 SUGGEST SEAS
BETWEEN 3-4 FEET. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE UP TO 20
KNOTS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS
TODAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
THEREFORE EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  75  89  75 /  30  30  30  10
STT  86  75  86  75 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/09






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 270906
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY AND THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP WITH OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS ALOFT.  HOWEVER...BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WEATHER
CONDITIONS THE UPPER RIDGE IS TO GRADUALLY ERODE IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEP/AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
FARTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR SHOWED PATCHES OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE
PREVAILING EASTERLIES. HOWEVER LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION WAS
OBSERVED OR DETECTED OVER THE LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS MORNING.

BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS A FEW LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS MAY BRUSH
THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOME OF THE ISLANDS. DURING THE REST
OF THE DAY...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
THE ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND LOCAL EFFECTS MAY STILL LEAD TO INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE OF SHORT
DURATION AND QUICK PASSING DUE TO THE INCREASING TRADES AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

OVER THE WEEKEND...MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN ON SATURDAY
AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES PREVAILING
AND LESSER CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...
LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE MODEL CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THE DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. STILL
EXPECT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. IN
ADDITION...THE GRADUAL EROSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WILL ALSO SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR TWO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING CAP INVERSION. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND NOT INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST JUST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. ISOLATED -SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES. LIGHT EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AT
5-10 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS INCREASING TO AROUND 15
KNOTS AND GUSTY AFTER 27/14Z. SCATTERED SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
PR THIS AFTERNOON...INDUCING VCSH AT TJMZ...WITH POSSIBLE CIGS AT
FL040 AND TEMPO SHRA AT THE TJMZ TERMINAL AFTER 27/18Z WITH LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST DATA FROM THE BUOY 41043 SUGGEST SEAS NOW AROUND
7 FEET AROUND 9 SECONDS AS THE EASTERLY TRADE INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION. MEANWHILE... THE LOCAL NEAR-SHORE BUOY 41053 SUGGEST SEAS
BETWEEN 3-4 FEET. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE UP TO 20
KNOTS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS
TODAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
THEREFORE EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  75  89  75 /  30  30  30  10
STT  86  75  86  75 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/09






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 270906
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY AND THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP WITH OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS ALOFT.  HOWEVER...BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WEATHER
CONDITIONS THE UPPER RIDGE IS TO GRADUALLY ERODE IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEP/AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
FARTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR SHOWED PATCHES OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE
PREVAILING EASTERLIES. HOWEVER LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION WAS
OBSERVED OR DETECTED OVER THE LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS MORNING.

BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS A FEW LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS MAY BRUSH
THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOME OF THE ISLANDS. DURING THE REST
OF THE DAY...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
THE ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND LOCAL EFFECTS MAY STILL LEAD TO INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE OF SHORT
DURATION AND QUICK PASSING DUE TO THE INCREASING TRADES AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

OVER THE WEEKEND...MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN ON SATURDAY
AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES PREVAILING
AND LESSER CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...
LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE MODEL CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THE DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. STILL
EXPECT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. IN
ADDITION...THE GRADUAL EROSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WILL ALSO SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR TWO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING CAP INVERSION. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND NOT INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST JUST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. ISOLATED -SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES. LIGHT EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AT
5-10 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS INCREASING TO AROUND 15
KNOTS AND GUSTY AFTER 27/14Z. SCATTERED SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
PR THIS AFTERNOON...INDUCING VCSH AT TJMZ...WITH POSSIBLE CIGS AT
FL040 AND TEMPO SHRA AT THE TJMZ TERMINAL AFTER 27/18Z WITH LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST DATA FROM THE BUOY 41043 SUGGEST SEAS NOW AROUND
7 FEET AROUND 9 SECONDS AS THE EASTERLY TRADE INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION. MEANWHILE... THE LOCAL NEAR-SHORE BUOY 41053 SUGGEST SEAS
BETWEEN 3-4 FEET. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE UP TO 20
KNOTS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS
TODAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
THEREFORE EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  75  89  75 /  30  30  30  10
STT  86  75  86  75 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/09







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 270906
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY AND THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP WITH OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS ALOFT.  HOWEVER...BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WEATHER
CONDITIONS THE UPPER RIDGE IS TO GRADUALLY ERODE IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEP/AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
FARTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR SHOWED PATCHES OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE
PREVAILING EASTERLIES. HOWEVER LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION WAS
OBSERVED OR DETECTED OVER THE LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS MORNING.

BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS A FEW LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS MAY BRUSH
THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOME OF THE ISLANDS. DURING THE REST
OF THE DAY...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
THE ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND LOCAL EFFECTS MAY STILL LEAD TO INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE OF SHORT
DURATION AND QUICK PASSING DUE TO THE INCREASING TRADES AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

OVER THE WEEKEND...MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN ON SATURDAY
AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES PREVAILING
AND LESSER CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...
LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE MODEL CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THE DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. STILL
EXPECT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. IN
ADDITION...THE GRADUAL EROSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WILL ALSO SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR TWO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING CAP INVERSION. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND NOT INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST JUST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. ISOLATED -SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES. LIGHT EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AT
5-10 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS INCREASING TO AROUND 15
KNOTS AND GUSTY AFTER 27/14Z. SCATTERED SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
PR THIS AFTERNOON...INDUCING VCSH AT TJMZ...WITH POSSIBLE CIGS AT
FL040 AND TEMPO SHRA AT THE TJMZ TERMINAL AFTER 27/18Z WITH LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST DATA FROM THE BUOY 41043 SUGGEST SEAS NOW AROUND
7 FEET AROUND 9 SECONDS AS THE EASTERLY TRADE INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION. MEANWHILE... THE LOCAL NEAR-SHORE BUOY 41053 SUGGEST SEAS
BETWEEN 3-4 FEET. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE UP TO 20
KNOTS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS
TODAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
THEREFORE EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  75  89  75 /  30  30  30  10
STT  86  75  86  75 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/09







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 270247
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1047 PM AST THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS AFFECTED PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH RADAR ESTIMATES MAINLY AROUND HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN ACCUMULATING AND ONE ISOLATED AREA OVER MARICAO ESTIMATING
JUST OVER HALF AN INCH OF RAIN. AFTER THE SHOWERS DISSIPATED LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAINED WITH LITTLE TO NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY DETECTED. NOW LATE IN THE EVENING A FEW LIGHT
PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND
REMAIN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SIGNIFICANT AND THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE VERY BRIEF OVER ANY ONE
AREA. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ACROSS EASTERN PR...USVI...AND THE LOCAL
WATERS...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. SIMILAR PATTERN EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY...MAYBE A BIT MORE SHOWERS ACROSS NW PR DUE TO THE WIND
FLOW AND THEN ON SUNDAY THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY INCREASE AS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TNCM AND
TKPK FROM 27/02Z TO 27/06Z AND AT TJMZ AND VCNTY FROM 27/17Z THROUGH
26/22Z. MTN OBSCURATIONS IN LUQUILLO RANGE 27/10Z-27/17Z AND
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AFT 27/16Z. EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS...
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AT SURFACE...BUT REMAINING 15
TO 20 KNOTS UP TO FL080...SWITCHING TO WNW ABV FL150 AND INCRG TO 45
KT BY FL400.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LOCAL NEAR-SHORE BUOYS ARE AROUND 3 FEET
WITH THE OFF-SHORE BUOY 41043 NOW OVER 5 FEET. WE EXPECT SEAS TO
SLOWLY INCREASE UP TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL OFFSHORE WATERS WITH
WINDS ALSO INCREASING SLIGHTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM AST THU MAR 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
DURING THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AS THE UPPER RIDGE ERODE
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP/AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

DISCUSSION...
A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT
HOLDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH LIMITED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY.

EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL SATURDAY...AS A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...
CREATING A MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST...AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO ERODES...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
OFFSHORE WATERS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
26/22Z IN AND AROUND JMZ. EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

MARINE....WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. 6 FEET
MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...ELSEWHERE NEAR 5
FEET. OVERNIGHT...MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL AID IN SLIGHTLY
INCREASING SEAS TO NEAR 6 FEET IN EXPOSED WATERS. AT THIS
MOMENT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
MAINLY DUE TO THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  89  75  90 /  30  30  30  30
STT  75  86  74  86 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

12/25







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 270247
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1047 PM AST THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS AFFECTED PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH RADAR ESTIMATES MAINLY AROUND HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN ACCUMULATING AND ONE ISOLATED AREA OVER MARICAO ESTIMATING
JUST OVER HALF AN INCH OF RAIN. AFTER THE SHOWERS DISSIPATED LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAINED WITH LITTLE TO NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY DETECTED. NOW LATE IN THE EVENING A FEW LIGHT
PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND
REMAIN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SIGNIFICANT AND THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE VERY BRIEF OVER ANY ONE
AREA. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ACROSS EASTERN PR...USVI...AND THE LOCAL
WATERS...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. SIMILAR PATTERN EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY...MAYBE A BIT MORE SHOWERS ACROSS NW PR DUE TO THE WIND
FLOW AND THEN ON SUNDAY THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY INCREASE AS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TNCM AND
TKPK FROM 27/02Z TO 27/06Z AND AT TJMZ AND VCNTY FROM 27/17Z THROUGH
26/22Z. MTN OBSCURATIONS IN LUQUILLO RANGE 27/10Z-27/17Z AND
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AFT 27/16Z. EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS...
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AT SURFACE...BUT REMAINING 15
TO 20 KNOTS UP TO FL080...SWITCHING TO WNW ABV FL150 AND INCRG TO 45
KT BY FL400.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LOCAL NEAR-SHORE BUOYS ARE AROUND 3 FEET
WITH THE OFF-SHORE BUOY 41043 NOW OVER 5 FEET. WE EXPECT SEAS TO
SLOWLY INCREASE UP TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL OFFSHORE WATERS WITH
WINDS ALSO INCREASING SLIGHTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM AST THU MAR 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
DURING THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AS THE UPPER RIDGE ERODE
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP/AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

DISCUSSION...
A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT
HOLDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH LIMITED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY.

EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL SATURDAY...AS A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...
CREATING A MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST...AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO ERODES...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
OFFSHORE WATERS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
26/22Z IN AND AROUND JMZ. EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

MARINE....WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. 6 FEET
MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...ELSEWHERE NEAR 5
FEET. OVERNIGHT...MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL AID IN SLIGHTLY
INCREASING SEAS TO NEAR 6 FEET IN EXPOSED WATERS. AT THIS
MOMENT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
MAINLY DUE TO THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  89  75  90 /  30  30  30  30
STT  75  86  74  86 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

12/25






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 270247
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1047 PM AST THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS AFFECTED PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH RADAR ESTIMATES MAINLY AROUND HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN ACCUMULATING AND ONE ISOLATED AREA OVER MARICAO ESTIMATING
JUST OVER HALF AN INCH OF RAIN. AFTER THE SHOWERS DISSIPATED LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAINED WITH LITTLE TO NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY DETECTED. NOW LATE IN THE EVENING A FEW LIGHT
PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND
REMAIN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SIGNIFICANT AND THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE VERY BRIEF OVER ANY ONE
AREA. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ACROSS EASTERN PR...USVI...AND THE LOCAL
WATERS...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. SIMILAR PATTERN EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY...MAYBE A BIT MORE SHOWERS ACROSS NW PR DUE TO THE WIND
FLOW AND THEN ON SUNDAY THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY INCREASE AS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TNCM AND
TKPK FROM 27/02Z TO 27/06Z AND AT TJMZ AND VCNTY FROM 27/17Z THROUGH
26/22Z. MTN OBSCURATIONS IN LUQUILLO RANGE 27/10Z-27/17Z AND
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AFT 27/16Z. EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS...
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AT SURFACE...BUT REMAINING 15
TO 20 KNOTS UP TO FL080...SWITCHING TO WNW ABV FL150 AND INCRG TO 45
KT BY FL400.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LOCAL NEAR-SHORE BUOYS ARE AROUND 3 FEET
WITH THE OFF-SHORE BUOY 41043 NOW OVER 5 FEET. WE EXPECT SEAS TO
SLOWLY INCREASE UP TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL OFFSHORE WATERS WITH
WINDS ALSO INCREASING SLIGHTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM AST THU MAR 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
DURING THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AS THE UPPER RIDGE ERODE
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP/AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

DISCUSSION...
A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT
HOLDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH LIMITED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY.

EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL SATURDAY...AS A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...
CREATING A MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST...AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO ERODES...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
OFFSHORE WATERS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
26/22Z IN AND AROUND JMZ. EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

MARINE....WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. 6 FEET
MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...ELSEWHERE NEAR 5
FEET. OVERNIGHT...MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL AID IN SLIGHTLY
INCREASING SEAS TO NEAR 6 FEET IN EXPOSED WATERS. AT THIS
MOMENT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
MAINLY DUE TO THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  89  75  90 /  30  30  30  30
STT  75  86  74  86 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

12/25






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 270247
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1047 PM AST THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS AFFECTED PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH RADAR ESTIMATES MAINLY AROUND HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN ACCUMULATING AND ONE ISOLATED AREA OVER MARICAO ESTIMATING
JUST OVER HALF AN INCH OF RAIN. AFTER THE SHOWERS DISSIPATED LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAINED WITH LITTLE TO NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY DETECTED. NOW LATE IN THE EVENING A FEW LIGHT
PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND
REMAIN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SIGNIFICANT AND THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE VERY BRIEF OVER ANY ONE
AREA. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ACROSS EASTERN PR...USVI...AND THE LOCAL
WATERS...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. SIMILAR PATTERN EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY...MAYBE A BIT MORE SHOWERS ACROSS NW PR DUE TO THE WIND
FLOW AND THEN ON SUNDAY THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY INCREASE AS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TNCM AND
TKPK FROM 27/02Z TO 27/06Z AND AT TJMZ AND VCNTY FROM 27/17Z THROUGH
26/22Z. MTN OBSCURATIONS IN LUQUILLO RANGE 27/10Z-27/17Z AND
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AFT 27/16Z. EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS...
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AT SURFACE...BUT REMAINING 15
TO 20 KNOTS UP TO FL080...SWITCHING TO WNW ABV FL150 AND INCRG TO 45
KT BY FL400.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LOCAL NEAR-SHORE BUOYS ARE AROUND 3 FEET
WITH THE OFF-SHORE BUOY 41043 NOW OVER 5 FEET. WE EXPECT SEAS TO
SLOWLY INCREASE UP TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL OFFSHORE WATERS WITH
WINDS ALSO INCREASING SLIGHTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM AST THU MAR 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
DURING THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AS THE UPPER RIDGE ERODE
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP/AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

DISCUSSION...
A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT
HOLDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH LIMITED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY.

EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL SATURDAY...AS A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...
CREATING A MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST...AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO ERODES...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
OFFSHORE WATERS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
26/22Z IN AND AROUND JMZ. EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

MARINE....WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. 6 FEET
MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...ELSEWHERE NEAR 5
FEET. OVERNIGHT...MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL AID IN SLIGHTLY
INCREASING SEAS TO NEAR 6 FEET IN EXPOSED WATERS. AT THIS
MOMENT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
MAINLY DUE TO THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  89  75  90 /  30  30  30  30
STT  75  86  74  86 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

12/25







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 262001
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 PM AST THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
DURING THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AS THE UPPER RIDGE ERODE
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP/AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.DISCUSSION...
A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT
HOLDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH LIMITED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY.

EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL SATURDAY...AS A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...
CREATING A MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST...AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO ERODES...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
26/22Z IN AND AROUND JMZ. EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE....WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. 6 FEET
MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...ELSEWHERE NEAR 5
FEET. OVERNIGHT...MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL AID IN SLIGHTLY
INCREASING SEAS TO NEAR 6 FEET IN EXPOSED WATERS. AT THIS
MOMENT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
MAINLY DUE TO THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  89  76  90 /  30  30  30  30
STT  75  86  75  86 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/27








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 262001
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 PM AST THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
DURING THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AS THE UPPER RIDGE ERODE
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP/AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.DISCUSSION...
A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT
HOLDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH LIMITED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY.

EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL SATURDAY...AS A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...
CREATING A MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST...AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO ERODES...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
26/22Z IN AND AROUND JMZ. EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE....WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. 6 FEET
MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...ELSEWHERE NEAR 5
FEET. OVERNIGHT...MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL AID IN SLIGHTLY
INCREASING SEAS TO NEAR 6 FEET IN EXPOSED WATERS. AT THIS
MOMENT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
MAINLY DUE TO THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  89  76  90 /  30  30  30  30
STT  75  86  75  86 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/27







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 262001
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 PM AST THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
DURING THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AS THE UPPER RIDGE ERODE
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP/AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.DISCUSSION...
A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT
HOLDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH LIMITED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY.

EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL SATURDAY...AS A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...
CREATING A MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST...AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO ERODES...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
26/22Z IN AND AROUND JMZ. EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE....WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. 6 FEET
MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...ELSEWHERE NEAR 5
FEET. OVERNIGHT...MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL AID IN SLIGHTLY
INCREASING SEAS TO NEAR 6 FEET IN EXPOSED WATERS. AT THIS
MOMENT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
MAINLY DUE TO THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  89  76  90 /  30  30  30  30
STT  75  86  75  86 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/27








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 262001
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 PM AST THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
DURING THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AS THE UPPER RIDGE ERODE
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP/AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.DISCUSSION...
A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT
HOLDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH LIMITED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY.

EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL SATURDAY...AS A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...
CREATING A MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST...AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO ERODES...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
26/22Z IN AND AROUND JMZ. EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE....WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. 6 FEET
MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...ELSEWHERE NEAR 5
FEET. OVERNIGHT...MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL AID IN SLIGHTLY
INCREASING SEAS TO NEAR 6 FEET IN EXPOSED WATERS. AT THIS
MOMENT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
MAINLY DUE TO THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  89  76  90 /  30  30  30  30
STT  75  86  75  86 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/27







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 261608
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1208 PM AST THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO SHORT
TERM GRIDS. STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS W PR IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGE ALOFT HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS STILL EXPECTED FROM
TIME TO TIME...WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER AND WEST OF
THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL
SATURDAY...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AS A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC MOVES EAST AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD.
BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 26/16Z AND 26/22Z
IN AND AROUND JMZ. EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH 26/22Z
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. 6 FEET
MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...ELSEWHERE NEAR 5
FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM AST THU MAR 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS WILL SUPPORT FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP INVERSION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY HOWEVER...THE
UPPER RIDGE IS TO SLIGHTLY ERODE IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP/AMPLIFYING
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...
RESULTING IN MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WINDS ARE TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST...AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. OCCASIONAL PATCHES
OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
TERRAIN EFFECTS FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SHOULD BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED AS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY THE FAIRLY
STRONG CAP INVERSION.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE SLIGHT INCREASE
IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WHICH WILL SUPPORT MORE STREAMER LIKE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL...AS THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD
HOLD IN PLACE AND LIMIT THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PERIODS OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS TO SOME OF ISLANDS...FOLLOWED BY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WEST TO NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK THE APPROACH OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CONVERGENCE ZONE/SHEAR LINE WILL ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
MORE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED -SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA BUT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE LOCAL FLYING AREA.
LIGHT EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY AFTER 26/14Z.
SCATTERED SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON...INDUCING
VCSH AT TJMZ...WITH POSSIBLE CIGS AT FL040 AND TEMPO SHRA AT THE
TJMZ TERMINAL AFTER 26/18Z WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

MARINE....MARINE WILL CONTINUE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL MOST OF TODAY...
BUT THE MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL AID IN SLIGHTLY INCREASING SEAS
TO NEAR 6 FEET IN EXPOSED WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR NOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THEN ON AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
MAINLY DUE TO THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  75  89  76 /  20  30  30  30
STT  86  75  86  75 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/27







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 261608
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1208 PM AST THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO SHORT
TERM GRIDS. STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS W PR IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGE ALOFT HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS STILL EXPECTED FROM
TIME TO TIME...WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER AND WEST OF
THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL
SATURDAY...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AS A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC MOVES EAST AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD.
BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 26/16Z AND 26/22Z
IN AND AROUND JMZ. EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH 26/22Z
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. 6 FEET
MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...ELSEWHERE NEAR 5
FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM AST THU MAR 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS WILL SUPPORT FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP INVERSION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY HOWEVER...THE
UPPER RIDGE IS TO SLIGHTLY ERODE IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP/AMPLIFYING
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...
RESULTING IN MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WINDS ARE TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST...AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. OCCASIONAL PATCHES
OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
TERRAIN EFFECTS FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SHOULD BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED AS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY THE FAIRLY
STRONG CAP INVERSION.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE SLIGHT INCREASE
IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WHICH WILL SUPPORT MORE STREAMER LIKE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL...AS THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD
HOLD IN PLACE AND LIMIT THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PERIODS OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS TO SOME OF ISLANDS...FOLLOWED BY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WEST TO NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK THE APPROACH OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CONVERGENCE ZONE/SHEAR LINE WILL ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
MORE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED -SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA BUT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE LOCAL FLYING AREA.
LIGHT EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY AFTER 26/14Z.
SCATTERED SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON...INDUCING
VCSH AT TJMZ...WITH POSSIBLE CIGS AT FL040 AND TEMPO SHRA AT THE
TJMZ TERMINAL AFTER 26/18Z WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

MARINE....MARINE WILL CONTINUE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL MOST OF TODAY...
BUT THE MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL AID IN SLIGHTLY INCREASING SEAS
TO NEAR 6 FEET IN EXPOSED WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR NOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THEN ON AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
MAINLY DUE TO THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  75  89  76 /  20  30  30  30
STT  86  75  86  75 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/27






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 261608
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1208 PM AST THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO SHORT
TERM GRIDS. STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS W PR IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGE ALOFT HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS STILL EXPECTED FROM
TIME TO TIME...WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER AND WEST OF
THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL
SATURDAY...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AS A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC MOVES EAST AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD.
BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 26/16Z AND 26/22Z
IN AND AROUND JMZ. EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH 26/22Z
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. 6 FEET
MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...ELSEWHERE NEAR 5
FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM AST THU MAR 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS WILL SUPPORT FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP INVERSION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY HOWEVER...THE
UPPER RIDGE IS TO SLIGHTLY ERODE IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP/AMPLIFYING
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...
RESULTING IN MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WINDS ARE TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST...AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. OCCASIONAL PATCHES
OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
TERRAIN EFFECTS FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SHOULD BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED AS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY THE FAIRLY
STRONG CAP INVERSION.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE SLIGHT INCREASE
IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WHICH WILL SUPPORT MORE STREAMER LIKE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL...AS THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD
HOLD IN PLACE AND LIMIT THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PERIODS OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS TO SOME OF ISLANDS...FOLLOWED BY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WEST TO NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK THE APPROACH OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CONVERGENCE ZONE/SHEAR LINE WILL ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
MORE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED -SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA BUT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE LOCAL FLYING AREA.
LIGHT EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY AFTER 26/14Z.
SCATTERED SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON...INDUCING
VCSH AT TJMZ...WITH POSSIBLE CIGS AT FL040 AND TEMPO SHRA AT THE
TJMZ TERMINAL AFTER 26/18Z WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

MARINE....MARINE WILL CONTINUE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL MOST OF TODAY...
BUT THE MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL AID IN SLIGHTLY INCREASING SEAS
TO NEAR 6 FEET IN EXPOSED WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR NOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THEN ON AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
MAINLY DUE TO THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  75  89  76 /  20  30  30  30
STT  86  75  86  75 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/27







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 261608
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1208 PM AST THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO SHORT
TERM GRIDS. STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS W PR IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGE ALOFT HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS STILL EXPECTED FROM
TIME TO TIME...WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER AND WEST OF
THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL
SATURDAY...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AS A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC MOVES EAST AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD.
BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 26/16Z AND 26/22Z
IN AND AROUND JMZ. EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH 26/22Z
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. 6 FEET
MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...ELSEWHERE NEAR 5
FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM AST THU MAR 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS WILL SUPPORT FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP INVERSION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY HOWEVER...THE
UPPER RIDGE IS TO SLIGHTLY ERODE IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP/AMPLIFYING
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...
RESULTING IN MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WINDS ARE TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST...AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. OCCASIONAL PATCHES
OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
TERRAIN EFFECTS FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SHOULD BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED AS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY THE FAIRLY
STRONG CAP INVERSION.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE SLIGHT INCREASE
IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WHICH WILL SUPPORT MORE STREAMER LIKE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL...AS THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD
HOLD IN PLACE AND LIMIT THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PERIODS OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS TO SOME OF ISLANDS...FOLLOWED BY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WEST TO NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK THE APPROACH OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CONVERGENCE ZONE/SHEAR LINE WILL ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
MORE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED -SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA BUT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE LOCAL FLYING AREA.
LIGHT EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY AFTER 26/14Z.
SCATTERED SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON...INDUCING
VCSH AT TJMZ...WITH POSSIBLE CIGS AT FL040 AND TEMPO SHRA AT THE
TJMZ TERMINAL AFTER 26/18Z WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

MARINE....MARINE WILL CONTINUE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL MOST OF TODAY...
BUT THE MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL AID IN SLIGHTLY INCREASING SEAS
TO NEAR 6 FEET IN EXPOSED WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR NOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THEN ON AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
MAINLY DUE TO THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  75  89  76 /  20  30  30  30
STT  86  75  86  75 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/27






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 260924
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
524 AM AST THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS WILL SUPPORT FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP INVERSION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY HOWEVER...THE
UPPER RIDGE IS TO SLIGHTLY ERODE IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP/AMPLIFYING
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...
RESULTING IN MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WINDS ARE TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST...AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. OCCASIONAL PATCHES
OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
TERRAIN EFFECTS FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SHOULD BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED AS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY THE FAIRLY
STRONG CAP INVERSION.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE SLIGHT INCREASE
IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WHICH WILL SUPPORT MORE STREAMER LIKE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL...AS THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD
HOLD IN PLACE AND LIMIT THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PERIODS OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS TO SOME OF ISLANDS...FOLLOWED BY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WEST TO NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK THE APPROACH OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CONVERGENCE ZONE/SHEAR LINE WILL ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
MORE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED -SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA BUT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE LOCAL FLYING AREA.
LIGHT EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY AFTER 26/14Z.
SCATTERED SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON...INDUCING
VCSH AT TJMZ...WITH POSSIBLE CIGS AT FL040 AND TEMPO SHRA AT THE
TJMZ TERMINAL AFTER 26/18Z WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.MARINE....MARINE WILL CONTINUE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL MOST OF TODAY...
BUT THE MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL AID IN SLIGHTLY INCREASING SEAS
TO NEAR 6 FEET IN EXPOSED WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR NOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THEN ON AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
MAINLY DUE TO THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  75  89  76 /  20  30  30  30
STT  86  75  86  75 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/09






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 260924
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
524 AM AST THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS WILL SUPPORT FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP INVERSION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY HOWEVER...THE
UPPER RIDGE IS TO SLIGHTLY ERODE IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP/AMPLIFYING
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...
RESULTING IN MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WINDS ARE TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST...AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. OCCASIONAL PATCHES
OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
TERRAIN EFFECTS FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SHOULD BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED AS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY THE FAIRLY
STRONG CAP INVERSION.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE SLIGHT INCREASE
IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WHICH WILL SUPPORT MORE STREAMER LIKE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL...AS THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD
HOLD IN PLACE AND LIMIT THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PERIODS OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS TO SOME OF ISLANDS...FOLLOWED BY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WEST TO NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK THE APPROACH OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CONVERGENCE ZONE/SHEAR LINE WILL ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
MORE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED -SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA BUT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE LOCAL FLYING AREA.
LIGHT EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY AFTER 26/14Z.
SCATTERED SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON...INDUCING
VCSH AT TJMZ...WITH POSSIBLE CIGS AT FL040 AND TEMPO SHRA AT THE
TJMZ TERMINAL AFTER 26/18Z WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.MARINE....MARINE WILL CONTINUE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL MOST OF TODAY...
BUT THE MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL AID IN SLIGHTLY INCREASING SEAS
TO NEAR 6 FEET IN EXPOSED WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR NOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THEN ON AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
MAINLY DUE TO THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  75  89  76 /  20  30  30  30
STT  86  75  86  75 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/09







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 260239
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1039 PM AST WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE 26/00Z SOUNDING AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER CONTINUES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A
FEW SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF PUERTO RICO
AND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN BEACHES...BUT ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW LATER
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHES OF MOISTURE CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AND ANOTHER WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR A
SIMILAR ROUND OF SHOWERS IN EASTERLY FLOW. WITH CAPPING BETWEEN 10
AND 15 THOUSAND FEET SHOWERS...THOUGH BRIEFLY HEAVY...WILL BE
SHALLOW AND WILL MOVE THROUGH A LITTLE FASTER ON INCREASING TRADE
WIND FLOW. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PUERTO RICO TO LIKELY JUST INLAND FROM THE WESTERN COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLD
-SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
AT 5-10 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EASTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 15
KT AND GUSTY AFTER 26/14Z. SCT/NMRS SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS W PR...CAUSING
VCSH AT JIM...POSSIBLE CIGS AT FL040 AND TEMPO SHRA AT THE TJMZ
TERMINAL AFTER 26/18Z. LOCAL MTN OBSCURATIONS AFT 26/16Z.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDS CONTINUE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL BUT INCREASING
WINDS WILL BOOST SEAS TO 6 FEET IN EXPOSED WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS BUT MAY NEED TO
BE INCLUDED FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS IF WINDS
ARE ANY STRONGER THAN FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM AST WED MAR 25 2015/

SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL HOLD THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A WEAKENING
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES NORTH
OF THE AREA. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL NORTH
OF THE AREA MON-TUE. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD...TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.

DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY
THIS MORNING...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE CORDILLERA. COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S UNDER
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. SHOWERS OVER LAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT HOLDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS
STILL EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE WEEKEND
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE WEST. AS THIS SURFACE FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA...A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED SUN-TUE WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY
NEXT WORKWEEK.

AVIATION...SCT SHRA INTERIOR PR AND W INCLUDING TJMZ..WL DECR END
ABT 22Z...FEW OBSCD MTNS. CONT ISOLD SHRA ELSEWHERE. WIND BLO FL100
MAINLY E 12-20 KT THRU THU. WIND BACKS TO NW ABV FL100.

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES FURTHER EAST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE WEST. SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  89  75  87 /  20  20  30  30
STT  74  86  75  85 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 260239
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1039 PM AST WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE 26/00Z SOUNDING AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER CONTINUES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A
FEW SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF PUERTO RICO
AND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN BEACHES...BUT ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW LATER
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHES OF MOISTURE CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AND ANOTHER WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR A
SIMILAR ROUND OF SHOWERS IN EASTERLY FLOW. WITH CAPPING BETWEEN 10
AND 15 THOUSAND FEET SHOWERS...THOUGH BRIEFLY HEAVY...WILL BE
SHALLOW AND WILL MOVE THROUGH A LITTLE FASTER ON INCREASING TRADE
WIND FLOW. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PUERTO RICO TO LIKELY JUST INLAND FROM THE WESTERN COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLD
-SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
AT 5-10 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EASTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 15
KT AND GUSTY AFTER 26/14Z. SCT/NMRS SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS W PR...CAUSING
VCSH AT JIM...POSSIBLE CIGS AT FL040 AND TEMPO SHRA AT THE TJMZ
TERMINAL AFTER 26/18Z. LOCAL MTN OBSCURATIONS AFT 26/16Z.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDS CONTINUE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL BUT INCREASING
WINDS WILL BOOST SEAS TO 6 FEET IN EXPOSED WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS BUT MAY NEED TO
BE INCLUDED FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS IF WINDS
ARE ANY STRONGER THAN FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM AST WED MAR 25 2015/

SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL HOLD THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A WEAKENING
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES NORTH
OF THE AREA. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL NORTH
OF THE AREA MON-TUE. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD...TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.

DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY
THIS MORNING...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE CORDILLERA. COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S UNDER
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. SHOWERS OVER LAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT HOLDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS
STILL EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE WEEKEND
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE WEST. AS THIS SURFACE FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA...A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED SUN-TUE WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY
NEXT WORKWEEK.

AVIATION...SCT SHRA INTERIOR PR AND W INCLUDING TJMZ..WL DECR END
ABT 22Z...FEW OBSCD MTNS. CONT ISOLD SHRA ELSEWHERE. WIND BLO FL100
MAINLY E 12-20 KT THRU THU. WIND BACKS TO NW ABV FL100.

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES FURTHER EAST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE WEST. SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  89  75  87 /  20  20  30  30
STT  74  86  75  85 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/12







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 260239
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1039 PM AST WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE 26/00Z SOUNDING AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER CONTINUES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A
FEW SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF PUERTO RICO
AND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN BEACHES...BUT ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW LATER
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHES OF MOISTURE CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AND ANOTHER WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR A
SIMILAR ROUND OF SHOWERS IN EASTERLY FLOW. WITH CAPPING BETWEEN 10
AND 15 THOUSAND FEET SHOWERS...THOUGH BRIEFLY HEAVY...WILL BE
SHALLOW AND WILL MOVE THROUGH A LITTLE FASTER ON INCREASING TRADE
WIND FLOW. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PUERTO RICO TO LIKELY JUST INLAND FROM THE WESTERN COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLD
-SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
AT 5-10 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EASTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 15
KT AND GUSTY AFTER 26/14Z. SCT/NMRS SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS W PR...CAUSING
VCSH AT JIM...POSSIBLE CIGS AT FL040 AND TEMPO SHRA AT THE TJMZ
TERMINAL AFTER 26/18Z. LOCAL MTN OBSCURATIONS AFT 26/16Z.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDS CONTINUE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL BUT INCREASING
WINDS WILL BOOST SEAS TO 6 FEET IN EXPOSED WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS BUT MAY NEED TO
BE INCLUDED FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS IF WINDS
ARE ANY STRONGER THAN FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM AST WED MAR 25 2015/

SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL HOLD THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A WEAKENING
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES NORTH
OF THE AREA. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL NORTH
OF THE AREA MON-TUE. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD...TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.

DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY
THIS MORNING...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE CORDILLERA. COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S UNDER
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. SHOWERS OVER LAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT HOLDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS
STILL EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE WEEKEND
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE WEST. AS THIS SURFACE FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA...A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED SUN-TUE WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY
NEXT WORKWEEK.

AVIATION...SCT SHRA INTERIOR PR AND W INCLUDING TJMZ..WL DECR END
ABT 22Z...FEW OBSCD MTNS. CONT ISOLD SHRA ELSEWHERE. WIND BLO FL100
MAINLY E 12-20 KT THRU THU. WIND BACKS TO NW ABV FL100.

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES FURTHER EAST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE WEST. SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  89  75  87 /  20  20  30  30
STT  74  86  75  85 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/12







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 260239
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1039 PM AST WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE 26/00Z SOUNDING AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER CONTINUES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A
FEW SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF PUERTO RICO
AND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN BEACHES...BUT ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW LATER
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHES OF MOISTURE CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AND ANOTHER WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR A
SIMILAR ROUND OF SHOWERS IN EASTERLY FLOW. WITH CAPPING BETWEEN 10
AND 15 THOUSAND FEET SHOWERS...THOUGH BRIEFLY HEAVY...WILL BE
SHALLOW AND WILL MOVE THROUGH A LITTLE FASTER ON INCREASING TRADE
WIND FLOW. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PUERTO RICO TO LIKELY JUST INLAND FROM THE WESTERN COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLD
-SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
AT 5-10 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EASTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 15
KT AND GUSTY AFTER 26/14Z. SCT/NMRS SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS W PR...CAUSING
VCSH AT JIM...POSSIBLE CIGS AT FL040 AND TEMPO SHRA AT THE TJMZ
TERMINAL AFTER 26/18Z. LOCAL MTN OBSCURATIONS AFT 26/16Z.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDS CONTINUE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL BUT INCREASING
WINDS WILL BOOST SEAS TO 6 FEET IN EXPOSED WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS BUT MAY NEED TO
BE INCLUDED FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS IF WINDS
ARE ANY STRONGER THAN FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM AST WED MAR 25 2015/

SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL HOLD THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A WEAKENING
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES NORTH
OF THE AREA. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL NORTH
OF THE AREA MON-TUE. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD...TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.

DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY
THIS MORNING...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE CORDILLERA. COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S UNDER
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. SHOWERS OVER LAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT HOLDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS
STILL EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE WEEKEND
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE WEST. AS THIS SURFACE FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA...A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED SUN-TUE WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY
NEXT WORKWEEK.

AVIATION...SCT SHRA INTERIOR PR AND W INCLUDING TJMZ..WL DECR END
ABT 22Z...FEW OBSCD MTNS. CONT ISOLD SHRA ELSEWHERE. WIND BLO FL100
MAINLY E 12-20 KT THRU THU. WIND BACKS TO NW ABV FL100.

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES FURTHER EAST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE WEST. SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  89  75  87 /  20  20  30  30
STT  74  86  75  85 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251848
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
248 PM AST WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL HOLD THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A WEAKENING
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES NORTH
OF THE AREA. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL NORTH
OF THE AREA MON-TUE. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD...TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY
THIS MORNING...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE CORDILLERA. COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S UNDER
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. SHOWERS OVER LAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT HOLDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS
STILL EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE WEEKEND
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE WEST. AS THIS SURFACE FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA...A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED SUN-TUE WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY
NEXT WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA INTERIOR PR AND W INCLUDING TJMZ..WL DECR END
ABT 22Z...FEW OBSCD MTNS. CONT ISOLD SHRA ELSEWHERE. WIND BLO FL100
MAINLY E 12-20 KT THRU THU. WIND BACKS TO NW ABV FL100.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES FURTHER EAST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE WEST. SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  87  75  87 /  20  20  30  30
STT  75  86  75  85 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

54/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251848
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
248 PM AST WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL HOLD THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A WEAKENING
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES NORTH
OF THE AREA. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL NORTH
OF THE AREA MON-TUE. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD...TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY
THIS MORNING...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE CORDILLERA. COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S UNDER
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. SHOWERS OVER LAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT HOLDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS
STILL EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE WEEKEND
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE WEST. AS THIS SURFACE FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA...A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED SUN-TUE WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY
NEXT WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA INTERIOR PR AND W INCLUDING TJMZ..WL DECR END
ABT 22Z...FEW OBSCD MTNS. CONT ISOLD SHRA ELSEWHERE. WIND BLO FL100
MAINLY E 12-20 KT THRU THU. WIND BACKS TO NW ABV FL100.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES FURTHER EAST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE WEST. SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  87  75  87 /  20  20  30  30
STT  75  86  75  85 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

54/23







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251848
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
248 PM AST WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL HOLD THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A WEAKENING
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES NORTH
OF THE AREA. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL NORTH
OF THE AREA MON-TUE. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD...TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY
THIS MORNING...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE CORDILLERA. COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S UNDER
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. SHOWERS OVER LAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT HOLDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS
STILL EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE WEEKEND
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE WEST. AS THIS SURFACE FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA...A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED SUN-TUE WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY
NEXT WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA INTERIOR PR AND W INCLUDING TJMZ..WL DECR END
ABT 22Z...FEW OBSCD MTNS. CONT ISOLD SHRA ELSEWHERE. WIND BLO FL100
MAINLY E 12-20 KT THRU THU. WIND BACKS TO NW ABV FL100.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES FURTHER EAST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE WEST. SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  87  75  87 /  20  20  30  30
STT  75  86  75  85 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

54/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251848
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
248 PM AST WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL HOLD THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A WEAKENING
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES NORTH
OF THE AREA. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL NORTH
OF THE AREA MON-TUE. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD...TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY
THIS MORNING...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE CORDILLERA. COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S UNDER
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. SHOWERS OVER LAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT HOLDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS
STILL EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE WEEKEND
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE WEST. AS THIS SURFACE FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA...A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED SUN-TUE WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY
NEXT WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA INTERIOR PR AND W INCLUDING TJMZ..WL DECR END
ABT 22Z...FEW OBSCD MTNS. CONT ISOLD SHRA ELSEWHERE. WIND BLO FL100
MAINLY E 12-20 KT THRU THU. WIND BACKS TO NW ABV FL100.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES FURTHER EAST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE WEST. SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  87  75  87 /  20  20  30  30
STT  75  86  75  85 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

54/23







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251502
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1102 AM AST WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS IN TODAYS FORECAST.
CONVECTION CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING OVER CORDILLERA CENTRAL AS
EXPECTED AND STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THERE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEAK MID-LVEL TROUGH IS PASSING OVER PR WHILE THE
OVERALL TREND IS FOR DRYING BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER BELOW 1.5
INCHES WILL LIMIT CONVECTION TO SCATTERED CATEGORY EVEN THIS
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED EASTERN PR...USVI...AND OFFSHORE. DO NOT
EXPECT THE STREAMING SHOWERS INTO SAN JUAN METRO TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT AFT SHRA INTERIOR PR AND W INCLUDING TJMZ AND FEW
OBSCD MTNS...ISOLD SHRA ELSEWHERE. WIND BLO FL100 MAINLY E 12-20
KT THRU THU. WIND BACKS TO NW ABV FL100,

&&

.MARINE...WINDS REMAIN LOW SO FAR THOUGH WILL PICK UP A LITTLE BY
AFTERNOON. BUT SEAS ONLY 2-4 FT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM AST WED MAR 25 2015/

SYNOPSIS...SLIGHT EROSION OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARDS ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...RIDGE
IS TO QUICKLY REESTABLISH ALOFT ONCE AGAIN AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TO JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADE WINDS THROUGH TODAY. THEREAFTER... ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AS IT BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ONCE AGAIN.

DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE MAIN DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
OVER THE REGION AND THUS LIMITING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...FOR
TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG PARTS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
AND WEST AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
FORM OVER SOME OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THEN QUICKLY STREAM WESTWARD
ACROSS SECTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS. THE
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY THEN GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY THEN EXPECT OCCASIONAL PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE FROM AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
AND PASSING SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS
ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY...WHICH SHOULD
BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLD -SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA...BUT IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE LOCAL TERMINALS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SFC WINDS ACROSS PR WITH EASTERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE AT 5-10
KTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PREVAILING EASTERLY WINDS AT
10-15 KNOTS AFTER 25/13Z. SCT SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS WRN PR...CAUSING
VCSH AT TJMZ/TJPS W/POSSIBLE CIGS AT FL040...TEMPO SHRA AT TJMZ
FM 25/18Z-25/22Z.

MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING TRADE WINDS BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT
AND THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS WILL
BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SEAS. HOWEVER FOR THE MOMENT...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN
JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  75  89  75 /  10  20  20  30
STT  86  75  86  75 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

54/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251502
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1102 AM AST WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS IN TODAYS FORECAST.
CONVECTION CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING OVER CORDILLERA CENTRAL AS
EXPECTED AND STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THERE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEAK MID-LVEL TROUGH IS PASSING OVER PR WHILE THE
OVERALL TREND IS FOR DRYING BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER BELOW 1.5
INCHES WILL LIMIT CONVECTION TO SCATTERED CATEGORY EVEN THIS
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED EASTERN PR...USVI...AND OFFSHORE. DO NOT
EXPECT THE STREAMING SHOWERS INTO SAN JUAN METRO TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT AFT SHRA INTERIOR PR AND W INCLUDING TJMZ AND FEW
OBSCD MTNS...ISOLD SHRA ELSEWHERE. WIND BLO FL100 MAINLY E 12-20
KT THRU THU. WIND BACKS TO NW ABV FL100,

&&

.MARINE...WINDS REMAIN LOW SO FAR THOUGH WILL PICK UP A LITTLE BY
AFTERNOON. BUT SEAS ONLY 2-4 FT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM AST WED MAR 25 2015/

SYNOPSIS...SLIGHT EROSION OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARDS ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...RIDGE
IS TO QUICKLY REESTABLISH ALOFT ONCE AGAIN AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TO JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADE WINDS THROUGH TODAY. THEREAFTER... ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AS IT BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ONCE AGAIN.

DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE MAIN DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
OVER THE REGION AND THUS LIMITING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...FOR
TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG PARTS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
AND WEST AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
FORM OVER SOME OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THEN QUICKLY STREAM WESTWARD
ACROSS SECTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS. THE
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY THEN GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY THEN EXPECT OCCASIONAL PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE FROM AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
AND PASSING SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS
ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY...WHICH SHOULD
BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLD -SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA...BUT IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE LOCAL TERMINALS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SFC WINDS ACROSS PR WITH EASTERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE AT 5-10
KTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PREVAILING EASTERLY WINDS AT
10-15 KNOTS AFTER 25/13Z. SCT SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS WRN PR...CAUSING
VCSH AT TJMZ/TJPS W/POSSIBLE CIGS AT FL040...TEMPO SHRA AT TJMZ
FM 25/18Z-25/22Z.

MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING TRADE WINDS BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT
AND THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS WILL
BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SEAS. HOWEVER FOR THE MOMENT...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN
JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  75  89  75 /  10  20  20  30
STT  86  75  86  75 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

54/23







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250945
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
545 AM AST WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHT EROSION OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARDS ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...RIDGE
IS TO QUICKLY REESTABLISH ALOFT ONCE AGAIN AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TO JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADE WINDS THROUGH TODAY. THEREAFTER... ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AS IT BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE MAIN DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
OVER THE REGION AND THUS LIMITING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...FOR
TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG PARTS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
AND WEST AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
FORM OVER SOME OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THEN QUICKLY STREAM WESTWARD
ACROSS SECTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS. THE
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY THEN GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY THEN EXPECT OCCASIONAL PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE FROM AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
AND PASSING SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS
ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY...WHICH SHOULD
BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLD -SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA...BUT IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE LOCAL TERMINALS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SFC WINDS ACROSS PR WITH EASTERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE AT 5-10
KTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PREVAILING EASTERLY WINDS AT
10-15 KNOTS AFTER 25/13Z. SCT SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS WRN PR...CAUSING
VCSH AT TJMZ/TJPS W/POSSIBLE CIGS AT FL040...TEMPO SHRA AT TJMZ
FM 25/18Z-25/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING TRADE WINDS BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT
AND THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS WILL
BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SEAS. HOWEVER FOR THE MOMENT...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN
JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  75  89  75 /  10  20  20  30
STT  86  75  86  75 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/09






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250945
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
545 AM AST WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHT EROSION OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARDS ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...RIDGE
IS TO QUICKLY REESTABLISH ALOFT ONCE AGAIN AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TO JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADE WINDS THROUGH TODAY. THEREAFTER... ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AS IT BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE MAIN DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
OVER THE REGION AND THUS LIMITING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...FOR
TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG PARTS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
AND WEST AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
FORM OVER SOME OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THEN QUICKLY STREAM WESTWARD
ACROSS SECTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS. THE
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY THEN GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY THEN EXPECT OCCASIONAL PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE FROM AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
AND PASSING SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS
ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY...WHICH SHOULD
BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLD -SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA...BUT IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE LOCAL TERMINALS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SFC WINDS ACROSS PR WITH EASTERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE AT 5-10
KTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PREVAILING EASTERLY WINDS AT
10-15 KNOTS AFTER 25/13Z. SCT SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS WRN PR...CAUSING
VCSH AT TJMZ/TJPS W/POSSIBLE CIGS AT FL040...TEMPO SHRA AT TJMZ
FM 25/18Z-25/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING TRADE WINDS BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT
AND THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS WILL
BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SEAS. HOWEVER FOR THE MOMENT...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN
JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  75  89  75 /  10  20  20  30
STT  86  75  86  75 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/09







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250248 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1048 PM AST TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO ORIGINAL THINKING THIS EVENING. HAVE
MADE ROUTINE CHANGES TO GRIDS...BUT CHANGES ARE MINOR. THE 25/00Z
SOUNDING WAS CONSIDERABLY MORE STABLE THAN THE MORNING SOUNDING
BUT ALSO CONTAINED MORE MOISTURE WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.58
INCHES. NEVERTHELESS THE MIMIC PRODUCT SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
IS MOVING IN FROM THE EAST AND OUR LOW POPS SHOULD HOLD. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS ALMOST NIL AT THE MOMENT BUT SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS AND EASTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO SOMEWHAT IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE AREA IS BEING FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE
WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
GREATLY MODIFIED FORM AND THEN PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
SATURDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWERS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS ABSORBED INTO THE NEXT FRONT THAT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA SUNDAY. A PRE-FRONTAL BAND WILL LIKELY GRAZE PUERTO RICO BUT
THE FRONT ITSELF WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA AND
THEN BEGIN TO RETREAT TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE DECREASES
CONSIDERABLY ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING INCREASED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT... AND SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NO
DRAMATIC CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLD
-SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS PR WITH EASTERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE AT 5-10 KTS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. EASTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS AFTER 25/13Z. SCT
SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS W-SW PR...CAUSING VCSH AT JMZ/JPS AND POSSIBLE
CIGS AT FL040 AND TEMPO SHRA AT THE TJMZ TERMINAL AFTER 25/18Z.

&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE. INCREASING
WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RAISE SEAS...BUT AT
PRESENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM AST TUE MAR 24 2015/

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A BRIEF WEAKENING EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY WED AFTERNOON AND HOLD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY IN THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER
AND NORTHWEST OF THE CORDILLERA...AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SAN JUAN METRO AREA. COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S UNDER A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. SHOWERS OVER LAND AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT
HOLDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS STILL EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH LIMITED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY TOMORROW AS SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHIFTS EASTWARD AND ANOTHER
SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE LATEST
WILL HOLD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...SHIFTING TO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW SATURDAY-MONDAY.

A BRIEF WEAKENING OF RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUNDAY THRU MONDAY AND
THEREFORE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

AVIATION...STREAMING SHRA FM EL YUNQUE WL BE NR TJSJ NEXT SVRL HRS
AND SCT SHRA WEST AND CENTRAL PR WI SOME OBSCD MTNS. OTHW XPCT ISOLD
SHRA TONITE/EARLY WED. SCT SHRA AGAIN WEST AND CNTRL PR WED AFT.
WIND BLO FL150 VRBL BUT MAINLY E AOB 12 KT THRU WED.

MARINE...SEAS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE WATERS
JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TRADE
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  86  76  87 /  10  10  20  20
STT  75  84  75  84 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/12







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250248 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1048 PM AST TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO ORIGINAL THINKING THIS EVENING. HAVE
MADE ROUTINE CHANGES TO GRIDS...BUT CHANGES ARE MINOR. THE 25/00Z
SOUNDING WAS CONSIDERABLY MORE STABLE THAN THE MORNING SOUNDING
BUT ALSO CONTAINED MORE MOISTURE WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.58
INCHES. NEVERTHELESS THE MIMIC PRODUCT SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
IS MOVING IN FROM THE EAST AND OUR LOW POPS SHOULD HOLD. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS ALMOST NIL AT THE MOMENT BUT SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS AND EASTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO SOMEWHAT IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE AREA IS BEING FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE
WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
GREATLY MODIFIED FORM AND THEN PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
SATURDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWERS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS ABSORBED INTO THE NEXT FRONT THAT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA SUNDAY. A PRE-FRONTAL BAND WILL LIKELY GRAZE PUERTO RICO BUT
THE FRONT ITSELF WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA AND
THEN BEGIN TO RETREAT TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE DECREASES
CONSIDERABLY ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING INCREASED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT... AND SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NO
DRAMATIC CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLD
-SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS PR WITH EASTERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE AT 5-10 KTS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. EASTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS AFTER 25/13Z. SCT
SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS W-SW PR...CAUSING VCSH AT JMZ/JPS AND POSSIBLE
CIGS AT FL040 AND TEMPO SHRA AT THE TJMZ TERMINAL AFTER 25/18Z.

&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE. INCREASING
WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RAISE SEAS...BUT AT
PRESENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM AST TUE MAR 24 2015/

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A BRIEF WEAKENING EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY WED AFTERNOON AND HOLD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY IN THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER
AND NORTHWEST OF THE CORDILLERA...AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SAN JUAN METRO AREA. COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S UNDER A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. SHOWERS OVER LAND AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT
HOLDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS STILL EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH LIMITED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY TOMORROW AS SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHIFTS EASTWARD AND ANOTHER
SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE LATEST
WILL HOLD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...SHIFTING TO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW SATURDAY-MONDAY.

A BRIEF WEAKENING OF RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUNDAY THRU MONDAY AND
THEREFORE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

AVIATION...STREAMING SHRA FM EL YUNQUE WL BE NR TJSJ NEXT SVRL HRS
AND SCT SHRA WEST AND CENTRAL PR WI SOME OBSCD MTNS. OTHW XPCT ISOLD
SHRA TONITE/EARLY WED. SCT SHRA AGAIN WEST AND CNTRL PR WED AFT.
WIND BLO FL150 VRBL BUT MAINLY E AOB 12 KT THRU WED.

MARINE...SEAS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE WATERS
JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TRADE
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  86  76  87 /  10  10  20  20
STT  75  84  75  84 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/12








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250248 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1048 PM AST TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO ORIGINAL THINKING THIS EVENING. HAVE
MADE ROUTINE CHANGES TO GRIDS...BUT CHANGES ARE MINOR. THE 25/00Z
SOUNDING WAS CONSIDERABLY MORE STABLE THAN THE MORNING SOUNDING
BUT ALSO CONTAINED MORE MOISTURE WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.58
INCHES. NEVERTHELESS THE MIMIC PRODUCT SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
IS MOVING IN FROM THE EAST AND OUR LOW POPS SHOULD HOLD. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS ALMOST NIL AT THE MOMENT BUT SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS AND EASTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO SOMEWHAT IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE AREA IS BEING FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE
WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
GREATLY MODIFIED FORM AND THEN PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
SATURDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWERS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS ABSORBED INTO THE NEXT FRONT THAT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA SUNDAY. A PRE-FRONTAL BAND WILL LIKELY GRAZE PUERTO RICO BUT
THE FRONT ITSELF WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA AND
THEN BEGIN TO RETREAT TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE DECREASES
CONSIDERABLY ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING INCREASED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT... AND SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NO
DRAMATIC CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLD
-SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS PR WITH EASTERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE AT 5-10 KTS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. EASTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS AFTER 25/13Z. SCT
SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS W-SW PR...CAUSING VCSH AT JMZ/JPS AND POSSIBLE
CIGS AT FL040 AND TEMPO SHRA AT THE TJMZ TERMINAL AFTER 25/18Z.

&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE. INCREASING
WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RAISE SEAS...BUT AT
PRESENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM AST TUE MAR 24 2015/

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A BRIEF WEAKENING EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY WED AFTERNOON AND HOLD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY IN THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER
AND NORTHWEST OF THE CORDILLERA...AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SAN JUAN METRO AREA. COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S UNDER A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. SHOWERS OVER LAND AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT
HOLDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS STILL EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH LIMITED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY TOMORROW AS SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHIFTS EASTWARD AND ANOTHER
SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE LATEST
WILL HOLD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...SHIFTING TO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW SATURDAY-MONDAY.

A BRIEF WEAKENING OF RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUNDAY THRU MONDAY AND
THEREFORE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

AVIATION...STREAMING SHRA FM EL YUNQUE WL BE NR TJSJ NEXT SVRL HRS
AND SCT SHRA WEST AND CENTRAL PR WI SOME OBSCD MTNS. OTHW XPCT ISOLD
SHRA TONITE/EARLY WED. SCT SHRA AGAIN WEST AND CNTRL PR WED AFT.
WIND BLO FL150 VRBL BUT MAINLY E AOB 12 KT THRU WED.

MARINE...SEAS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE WATERS
JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TRADE
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  86  76  87 /  10  10  20  20
STT  75  84  75  84 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/12







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250248 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1048 PM AST TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO ORIGINAL THINKING THIS EVENING. HAVE
MADE ROUTINE CHANGES TO GRIDS...BUT CHANGES ARE MINOR. THE 25/00Z
SOUNDING WAS CONSIDERABLY MORE STABLE THAN THE MORNING SOUNDING
BUT ALSO CONTAINED MORE MOISTURE WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.58
INCHES. NEVERTHELESS THE MIMIC PRODUCT SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
IS MOVING IN FROM THE EAST AND OUR LOW POPS SHOULD HOLD. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS ALMOST NIL AT THE MOMENT BUT SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS AND EASTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO SOMEWHAT IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE AREA IS BEING FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE
WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
GREATLY MODIFIED FORM AND THEN PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
SATURDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWERS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS ABSORBED INTO THE NEXT FRONT THAT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA SUNDAY. A PRE-FRONTAL BAND WILL LIKELY GRAZE PUERTO RICO BUT
THE FRONT ITSELF WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA AND
THEN BEGIN TO RETREAT TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE DECREASES
CONSIDERABLY ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING INCREASED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT... AND SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NO
DRAMATIC CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLD
-SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS PR WITH EASTERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE AT 5-10 KTS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. EASTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS AFTER 25/13Z. SCT
SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS W-SW PR...CAUSING VCSH AT JMZ/JPS AND POSSIBLE
CIGS AT FL040 AND TEMPO SHRA AT THE TJMZ TERMINAL AFTER 25/18Z.

&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE. INCREASING
WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RAISE SEAS...BUT AT
PRESENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM AST TUE MAR 24 2015/

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A BRIEF WEAKENING EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY WED AFTERNOON AND HOLD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY IN THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER
AND NORTHWEST OF THE CORDILLERA...AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SAN JUAN METRO AREA. COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S UNDER A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. SHOWERS OVER LAND AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT
HOLDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS STILL EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH LIMITED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY TOMORROW AS SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHIFTS EASTWARD AND ANOTHER
SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE LATEST
WILL HOLD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...SHIFTING TO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW SATURDAY-MONDAY.

A BRIEF WEAKENING OF RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUNDAY THRU MONDAY AND
THEREFORE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

AVIATION...STREAMING SHRA FM EL YUNQUE WL BE NR TJSJ NEXT SVRL HRS
AND SCT SHRA WEST AND CENTRAL PR WI SOME OBSCD MTNS. OTHW XPCT ISOLD
SHRA TONITE/EARLY WED. SCT SHRA AGAIN WEST AND CNTRL PR WED AFT.
WIND BLO FL150 VRBL BUT MAINLY E AOB 12 KT THRU WED.

MARINE...SEAS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE WATERS
JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TRADE
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  86  76  87 /  10  10  20  20
STT  75  84  75  84 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/12








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