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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 280239
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1039 PM AST WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON WERE
RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED. HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...CAUSING PASSING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...USVI...AND EASTERN PR. WIND WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...CAUSING ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS...THEREFORE THE MARINE FORECAST WAS UPDATED AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED STARTING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS SOME AREAS
UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THRU THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ARND
28/00Z WILL PASS SOUTH OF USVI/PR OVERNIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND
SURGE. WINDS ALF E 20 TO 35 KT BLO FL200 WITH SFC WINDS 10 TO 20 KT
GUSTING TO 25 TO 35 KT AT TIMES BEFORE 28/21Z. VFR EXCEPT FOR BRIEF
MVFR IN SHRA TIL 28/12Z IN TNCM AND TKPK. MVFR LIKELY IN TJMZ AFT
28/16Z WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS IN PR AS EARLY AS 28/10Z E PR AND
28/15Z W PR.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL SECTIONS OF
THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND CAUSE SEAS OF
UP TO 7 FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM AST WED AUG 27 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN DURING THE WEEKEND.
TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS LOCAL WATERS AND WESTERN PUERTO
RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH
EASTERLY WINDS.

A TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY...WITH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO
RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE...AFTERNOON CONVECTION MIGHT BE ENHANCE
AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL
BE FOCUSED OVER CABO ROJO AND VICINITY.

INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH...
INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE TUTT TO THE NORTH IS
POSSIBLE...INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON AMPLITUDE AND TIMING. A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AS LOCAL ISLANDS
REMAINS UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR ALMOST ALL TAF SITES. DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL AID IN DVLP OF ISOLD TSRA OVR W PR
WITH TSRA FOR TJMZ AND VCTS FOR TJBQ TIL 27/22Z ALONG W/MTN OBCR OVR
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR. WIND BLO FL200 FM ESE 14-30
KT...STRONGEST BTW FL100-FL150...GRADUALLY BCMG FM EAST DURG THE AFN.

MARINE...A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...BECOMING NORTHEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION DUE TO WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  80  89  78  90 /  20  20  30  30
STT  81  90  80  89 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST THURSDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 2 PM AST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM AST THURSDAY FOR MONA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

12/25






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 280239
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1039 PM AST WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON WERE
RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED. HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...CAUSING PASSING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...USVI...AND EASTERN PR. WIND WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...CAUSING ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS...THEREFORE THE MARINE FORECAST WAS UPDATED AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED STARTING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS SOME AREAS
UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THRU THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ARND
28/00Z WILL PASS SOUTH OF USVI/PR OVERNIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND
SURGE. WINDS ALF E 20 TO 35 KT BLO FL200 WITH SFC WINDS 10 TO 20 KT
GUSTING TO 25 TO 35 KT AT TIMES BEFORE 28/21Z. VFR EXCEPT FOR BRIEF
MVFR IN SHRA TIL 28/12Z IN TNCM AND TKPK. MVFR LIKELY IN TJMZ AFT
28/16Z WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS IN PR AS EARLY AS 28/10Z E PR AND
28/15Z W PR.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL SECTIONS OF
THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND CAUSE SEAS OF
UP TO 7 FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM AST WED AUG 27 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN DURING THE WEEKEND.
TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS LOCAL WATERS AND WESTERN PUERTO
RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH
EASTERLY WINDS.

A TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY...WITH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO
RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE...AFTERNOON CONVECTION MIGHT BE ENHANCE
AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL
BE FOCUSED OVER CABO ROJO AND VICINITY.

INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH...
INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE TUTT TO THE NORTH IS
POSSIBLE...INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON AMPLITUDE AND TIMING. A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AS LOCAL ISLANDS
REMAINS UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR ALMOST ALL TAF SITES. DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL AID IN DVLP OF ISOLD TSRA OVR W PR
WITH TSRA FOR TJMZ AND VCTS FOR TJBQ TIL 27/22Z ALONG W/MTN OBCR OVR
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR. WIND BLO FL200 FM ESE 14-30
KT...STRONGEST BTW FL100-FL150...GRADUALLY BCMG FM EAST DURG THE AFN.

MARINE...A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...BECOMING NORTHEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION DUE TO WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  80  89  78  90 /  20  20  30  30
STT  81  90  80  89 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST THURSDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 2 PM AST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM AST THURSDAY FOR MONA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

12/25







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 271903
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN DURING THE WEEKEND.
TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS LOCAL WATERS AND WESTERN PUERTO
RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH
EASTERLY WINDS.

A TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY...WITH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO
RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE...AFTERNOON CONVECTION MIGHT BE ENHANCE
AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL
BE FOCUSED OVER CABO ROJO AND VICINITY.

INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH...
INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE TUTT TO THE NORTH IS
POSSIBLE...INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON AMPLITUDE AND TIMING. A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AS LOCAL ISLANDS
REMAINS UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR ALMOST ALL TAF SITES. DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL AID IN DVLP OF ISOLD TSRA OVR W PR
WITH TSRA FOR TJMZ AND VCTS FOR TJBQ TIL 27/22Z ALONG W/MTN OBCR OVR
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR. WIND BLO FL200 FM ESE 14-30
KT...STRONGEST BTW FL100-FL150...GRADUALLY BCMG FM EAST DURG THE AFN.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...BECOMING NORTHEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION DUE TO WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  80  89  78  90 /  20  20  30  30
STT  81  90  80  89 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/23







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 271903
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN DURING THE WEEKEND.
TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS LOCAL WATERS AND WESTERN PUERTO
RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH
EASTERLY WINDS.

A TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY...WITH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO
RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE...AFTERNOON CONVECTION MIGHT BE ENHANCE
AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL
BE FOCUSED OVER CABO ROJO AND VICINITY.

INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH...
INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE TUTT TO THE NORTH IS
POSSIBLE...INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON AMPLITUDE AND TIMING. A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AS LOCAL ISLANDS
REMAINS UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR ALMOST ALL TAF SITES. DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL AID IN DVLP OF ISOLD TSRA OVR W PR
WITH TSRA FOR TJMZ AND VCTS FOR TJBQ TIL 27/22Z ALONG W/MTN OBCR OVR
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR. WIND BLO FL200 FM ESE 14-30
KT...STRONGEST BTW FL100-FL150...GRADUALLY BCMG FM EAST DURG THE AFN.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...BECOMING NORTHEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION DUE TO WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  80  89  78  90 /  20  20  30  30
STT  81  90  80  89 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 271438 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1038 AM AST WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND PARTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS EASTERN PR AND LOCAL ISLANDS WERE OBSERVED THIS MORNING. HAZY
CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT DUE TO AN AIR MASS OF SAHARAN DUST MOVING FROM
THE EAST...WHICH WILL BE OVER THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST TOMORROW. LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVED IN ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR THIS MORNING WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. THEN THIS AFTERNOON...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR. LOCALIZED MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR ALMOST ALL TAF SITES. DAYTIME HEATING
AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL AID IN DVLP OF ISOLD TSRA OVR W PR WITH TSRA
FOR TJMZ AND VCTS FOR TJBQ MAINLY BTW 27/17Z-27/22Z ALONG W/MTN OBCR
OVR CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR. WIND BLO FL200 FM ESE 14-30
KT...STRONGEST BTW FL100-FL150...GRADUALLY BCMG FM EAST DURG THE AFN.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO WINDS UP TO 9 KNOTS
AND SEAS INCREASING UP TO 6 FEET DURING THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM AST WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC....
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT TO JUST NORTH OF THE REGION BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY HAVING LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
TROPICAL WAVE NOW ACROSS THE OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS SO FAR
FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE FRIDAY...THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
SHOWED ONLY FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS MOST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WAS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE WESTWARDS TODAY AND HAVE NO DIRECT AFFECT ON THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AS IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATER TODAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF
NORTH OF THE REGION TO INDUCE MODERATE TRADE WINDS.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY
DRIVEN BY SEAS BREEZE VARIATIONS AND LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS ACROSS
THE ISLANDS WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OVER THE WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. NO WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...
PERIODS OF LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH DAY FOLLOWED BY LIMITED DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. BY FRIDAY LOCAL WINDS ARE TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THEREAFTER...AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD THEN BE STEERED
TOWARDS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...AS SUGGEST BY LATEST GFS
MODEL... WHICH HAS SO FAR BEEN INITIALIZING FAIRLY WELL.

MORE TO COME ON THIS FEATURE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAKE THE NECESSARY ADJUSTMENT TO THE
LONG TERM FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND. FOR NOW...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR GOOD WETTING RAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS
LIKE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

AVIATION...THE PREVAILING EAST SOUTHEAST L/LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL
BECOME EASTERLY BY THIS AFN. BRIEF MTN OBSCURATIONS ERN PR AFT
27/10Z AS A BAND OF SHALLOW L/LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVES WEST ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL AID
IN DVLP OF ISOLD TSRA OVR W PR WITH VCTS FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ
MAINLY BTW 27/17Z-27/22Z ALONG W/MTN OBCR OVR CORDILLERA CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PR. WIND BLO FL200 FM ESE 14-25 KT...STRONGEST BTW
FL100-FL150...GRADUALLY BCMG FM DURG THE AFN.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO WINDS UP TO
20 KNOTS AND SEAS INCREASING UP TO 6 FEET DURING THE DAY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN
PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  80  89  78 /  10  20  20  30
STT  89  81  90  80 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 271438 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1038 AM AST WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND PARTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS EASTERN PR AND LOCAL ISLANDS WERE OBSERVED THIS MORNING. HAZY
CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT DUE TO AN AIR MASS OF SAHARAN DUST MOVING FROM
THE EAST...WHICH WILL BE OVER THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST TOMORROW. LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVED IN ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR THIS MORNING WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. THEN THIS AFTERNOON...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR. LOCALIZED MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR ALMOST ALL TAF SITES. DAYTIME HEATING
AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL AID IN DVLP OF ISOLD TSRA OVR W PR WITH TSRA
FOR TJMZ AND VCTS FOR TJBQ MAINLY BTW 27/17Z-27/22Z ALONG W/MTN OBCR
OVR CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR. WIND BLO FL200 FM ESE 14-30
KT...STRONGEST BTW FL100-FL150...GRADUALLY BCMG FM EAST DURG THE AFN.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO WINDS UP TO 9 KNOTS
AND SEAS INCREASING UP TO 6 FEET DURING THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM AST WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC....
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT TO JUST NORTH OF THE REGION BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY HAVING LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
TROPICAL WAVE NOW ACROSS THE OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS SO FAR
FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE FRIDAY...THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
SHOWED ONLY FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS MOST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WAS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE WESTWARDS TODAY AND HAVE NO DIRECT AFFECT ON THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AS IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATER TODAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF
NORTH OF THE REGION TO INDUCE MODERATE TRADE WINDS.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY
DRIVEN BY SEAS BREEZE VARIATIONS AND LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS ACROSS
THE ISLANDS WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OVER THE WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. NO WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...
PERIODS OF LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH DAY FOLLOWED BY LIMITED DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. BY FRIDAY LOCAL WINDS ARE TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THEREAFTER...AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD THEN BE STEERED
TOWARDS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...AS SUGGEST BY LATEST GFS
MODEL... WHICH HAS SO FAR BEEN INITIALIZING FAIRLY WELL.

MORE TO COME ON THIS FEATURE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAKE THE NECESSARY ADJUSTMENT TO THE
LONG TERM FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND. FOR NOW...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR GOOD WETTING RAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS
LIKE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

AVIATION...THE PREVAILING EAST SOUTHEAST L/LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL
BECOME EASTERLY BY THIS AFN. BRIEF MTN OBSCURATIONS ERN PR AFT
27/10Z AS A BAND OF SHALLOW L/LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVES WEST ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL AID
IN DVLP OF ISOLD TSRA OVR W PR WITH VCTS FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ
MAINLY BTW 27/17Z-27/22Z ALONG W/MTN OBCR OVR CORDILLERA CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PR. WIND BLO FL200 FM ESE 14-25 KT...STRONGEST BTW
FL100-FL150...GRADUALLY BCMG FM DURG THE AFN.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO WINDS UP TO
20 KNOTS AND SEAS INCREASING UP TO 6 FEET DURING THE DAY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN
PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  80  89  78 /  10  20  20  30
STT  89  81  90  80 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/23







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 270917
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
517 AM AST WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC....
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT TO JUST NORTH OF THE REGION BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY HAVING LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
TROPICAL WAVE NOW ACROSS THE OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS SO FAR
FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE FRIDAY...THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
SHOWED ONLY FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS MOST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WAS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE WESTWARDS TODAY AND HAVE NO DIRECT AFFECT ON THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AS IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATER TODAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF
NORTH OF THE REGION TO INDUCE MODERATE TRADE WINDS.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY
DRIVEN BY SEAS BREEZE VARIATIONS AND LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS ACROSS
THE ISLANDS WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OVER THE WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. NO WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...
PERIODS OF LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH DAY FOLLOWED BY LIMITED DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. BY FRIDAY LOCAL WINDS ARE TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THEREAFTER...AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD THEN BE STEERED
TOWARDS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...AS SUGGEST BY LATEST GFS
MODEL... WHICH HAS SO FAR BEEN INITIALIZING FAIRLY WELL.

MORE TO COME ON THIS FEATURE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAKE THE NECESSARY ADJUSTMENT TO THE
LONG TERM FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND. FOR NOW...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR GOOD WETTING RAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS
LIKE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...THE PREVAILING EAST SOUTHEAST L/LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL
BECOME EASTERLY BY THIS AFN. BRIEF MTN OBSCURATIONS ERN PR AFT
27/10Z AS A BAND OF SHALLOW L/LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVES WEST ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL AID
IN DVLP OF ISOLD TSRA OVR W PR WITH VCTS FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ
MAINLY BTW 27/17Z-27/22Z ALONG W/MTN OBCR OVR CORDILLERA CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PR. WIND BLO FL200 FM ESE 14-25 KT...STRONGEST BTW
FL100-FL150...GRADUALLY BCMG FM DURG THE AFN.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO WINDS UP TO
20 KNOTS AND SEAS INCREASING UP TO 6 FEET DURING THE DAY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN
PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  80  89  78 /  10  20  20  30
STT  89  81  90  80 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/09







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 270917
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
517 AM AST WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC....
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT TO JUST NORTH OF THE REGION BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY HAVING LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
TROPICAL WAVE NOW ACROSS THE OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS SO FAR
FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE FRIDAY...THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
SHOWED ONLY FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS MOST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WAS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE WESTWARDS TODAY AND HAVE NO DIRECT AFFECT ON THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AS IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATER TODAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF
NORTH OF THE REGION TO INDUCE MODERATE TRADE WINDS.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY
DRIVEN BY SEAS BREEZE VARIATIONS AND LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS ACROSS
THE ISLANDS WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OVER THE WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. NO WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...
PERIODS OF LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH DAY FOLLOWED BY LIMITED DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. BY FRIDAY LOCAL WINDS ARE TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THEREAFTER...AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD THEN BE STEERED
TOWARDS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...AS SUGGEST BY LATEST GFS
MODEL... WHICH HAS SO FAR BEEN INITIALIZING FAIRLY WELL.

MORE TO COME ON THIS FEATURE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAKE THE NECESSARY ADJUSTMENT TO THE
LONG TERM FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND. FOR NOW...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR GOOD WETTING RAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS
LIKE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...THE PREVAILING EAST SOUTHEAST L/LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL
BECOME EASTERLY BY THIS AFN. BRIEF MTN OBSCURATIONS ERN PR AFT
27/10Z AS A BAND OF SHALLOW L/LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVES WEST ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL AID
IN DVLP OF ISOLD TSRA OVR W PR WITH VCTS FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ
MAINLY BTW 27/17Z-27/22Z ALONG W/MTN OBCR OVR CORDILLERA CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PR. WIND BLO FL200 FM ESE 14-25 KT...STRONGEST BTW
FL100-FL150...GRADUALLY BCMG FM DURG THE AFN.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO WINDS UP TO
20 KNOTS AND SEAS INCREASING UP TO 6 FEET DURING THE DAY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN
PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  80  89  78 /  10  20  20  30
STT  89  81  90  80 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/09






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 270216
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1016 PM AST TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. ONLY A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS...SOME OF THEM BRIEFLY AFFECTING THE USVI. NO CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN
ALIGNMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS.

PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
WINDS RETURNING TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION THAT SHOULD KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ABOUT ONE TO TWO DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY
WERE TODAY.


&&


.AVIATION...SE FLOW CONTINUES TNGT BCMG E ON WED. MTN
OBSCURATIONS USVI AND E PR WILL RETURN AFT 27/03Z AS A BAND OF
MOISTURE MOVES WEST ACROSS THE USVI AND PR. MOISTURE WILL LINGER
DURING THE DAY FOR LIKELY VCTS FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ BTWN 26/17-22Z
WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS OVER CORDILLERA AND WRN PR. WIND BLO FL200
SE 14-30 KT... STRONGEST BTWN 10-15 KFT...GRADUALLY BCMG E LATE
TONIGHT/WED.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS
TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 20 KNOTS TOMORROW AND SEAS INCREASING UP
TO 6 FEET TOMORROW AS WELL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM AST TUE AUG 26 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD WHILE DISSIPATES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY...MOVING
NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE
EXPECTED TOMORROW. AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS LOCAL WATERS...USVI AND PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PR. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY...WITH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY BE ENHANCE AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR FILTERS AT MID LEVELS.
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BRINGING
A RELIEF TO HOT TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS FOCUSING AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
FRIDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST FOCUSING SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS OVER CABO ROJO AND VICINITY.

A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN IS POSSIBLE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. NHC GIVES IT 20% CHANCE OF TC
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TC DEVELOPMENT...
THIS FEATURE COULD BE A RAINFALL PRODUCER. STAY TUNED.

AVIATION...SE FLOW CONTINUES TODAY BCMG E ON WED. SOME OBSCD MTNS
OVR CENTRAL AND W PR THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF VCSH FOR TJPS AND
TJMZ AND VCTS FOR TJBQ UNTIL AROUND 26/22Z. WIND BLO FL200 SE 14-30
KT GRADUALLY BCMG E LATE TONIGHT/WED.

MARINE...LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY WED-THU. ISOLD TSTMS
TUE-FRI. WINDS DIMINISH FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRES
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF ANEGADA BUT AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND T-STORMS INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  80  91  79  91 /  20  20  20  20
STT  80  89  81  89 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

12/25







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 270216
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1016 PM AST TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. ONLY A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS...SOME OF THEM BRIEFLY AFFECTING THE USVI. NO CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN
ALIGNMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS.

PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
WINDS RETURNING TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION THAT SHOULD KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ABOUT ONE TO TWO DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY
WERE TODAY.


&&


.AVIATION...SE FLOW CONTINUES TNGT BCMG E ON WED. MTN
OBSCURATIONS USVI AND E PR WILL RETURN AFT 27/03Z AS A BAND OF
MOISTURE MOVES WEST ACROSS THE USVI AND PR. MOISTURE WILL LINGER
DURING THE DAY FOR LIKELY VCTS FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ BTWN 26/17-22Z
WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS OVER CORDILLERA AND WRN PR. WIND BLO FL200
SE 14-30 KT... STRONGEST BTWN 10-15 KFT...GRADUALLY BCMG E LATE
TONIGHT/WED.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS
TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 20 KNOTS TOMORROW AND SEAS INCREASING UP
TO 6 FEET TOMORROW AS WELL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM AST TUE AUG 26 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD WHILE DISSIPATES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY...MOVING
NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE
EXPECTED TOMORROW. AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS LOCAL WATERS...USVI AND PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PR. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY...WITH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY BE ENHANCE AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR FILTERS AT MID LEVELS.
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BRINGING
A RELIEF TO HOT TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS FOCUSING AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
FRIDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST FOCUSING SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS OVER CABO ROJO AND VICINITY.

A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN IS POSSIBLE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. NHC GIVES IT 20% CHANCE OF TC
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TC DEVELOPMENT...
THIS FEATURE COULD BE A RAINFALL PRODUCER. STAY TUNED.

AVIATION...SE FLOW CONTINUES TODAY BCMG E ON WED. SOME OBSCD MTNS
OVR CENTRAL AND W PR THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF VCSH FOR TJPS AND
TJMZ AND VCTS FOR TJBQ UNTIL AROUND 26/22Z. WIND BLO FL200 SE 14-30
KT GRADUALLY BCMG E LATE TONIGHT/WED.

MARINE...LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY WED-THU. ISOLD TSTMS
TUE-FRI. WINDS DIMINISH FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRES
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF ANEGADA BUT AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND T-STORMS INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  80  91  79  91 /  20  20  20  20
STT  80  89  81  89 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

12/25








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 261858
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD WHILE DISSIPATES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY...MOVING
NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE
EXPECTED TOMORROW. AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS LOCAL WATERS...USVI AND PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PR. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY...WITH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY BE ENHANCE AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR FILTERS AT MID LEVELS.
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BRINGING
A RELIEF TO HOT TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS FOCUSING AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
FRIDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST FOCUSING SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS OVER CABO ROJO AND VICINITY.

A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN IS POSSIBLE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. NHC GIVES IT 20% CHANCE OF TC
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TC DEVELOPMENT...
THIS FEATURE COULD BE A RAINFALL PRODUCER. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...SE FLOW CONTINUES TODAY BCMG E ON WED. SOME OBSCD MTNS
OVR CENTRAL AND W PR THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF VCSH FOR TJPS AND
TJMZ AND VCTS FOR TJBQ UNTIL AROUND 26/22Z. WIND BLO FL200 SE 14-30
KT GRADUALLY BCMG E LATE TONIGHT/WED.

&&

.MARINE...LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY WED-THU. ISOLD TSTMS
TUE-FRI. WINDS DIMINISH FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRES
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF ANEGADA BUT AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND T-STORMS INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  80  91  79  91 /  20  20  20  20
STT  81  83  80  83 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 261858
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD WHILE DISSIPATES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY...MOVING
NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE
EXPECTED TOMORROW. AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS LOCAL WATERS...USVI AND PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PR. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY...WITH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY BE ENHANCE AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR FILTERS AT MID LEVELS.
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BRINGING
A RELIEF TO HOT TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS FOCUSING AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
FRIDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST FOCUSING SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS OVER CABO ROJO AND VICINITY.

A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN IS POSSIBLE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. NHC GIVES IT 20% CHANCE OF TC
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TC DEVELOPMENT...
THIS FEATURE COULD BE A RAINFALL PRODUCER. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...SE FLOW CONTINUES TODAY BCMG E ON WED. SOME OBSCD MTNS
OVR CENTRAL AND W PR THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF VCSH FOR TJPS AND
TJMZ AND VCTS FOR TJBQ UNTIL AROUND 26/22Z. WIND BLO FL200 SE 14-30
KT GRADUALLY BCMG E LATE TONIGHT/WED.

&&

.MARINE...LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY WED-THU. ISOLD TSTMS
TUE-FRI. WINDS DIMINISH FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRES
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF ANEGADA BUT AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND T-STORMS INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  80  91  79  91 /  20  20  20  20
STT  81  83  80  83 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/23







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 261440 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1040 AM AST TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
WATERS...LOCAL ISLANDS AND SOUTH PLAINS OF PR. DRIER AIR IS MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST AND ITS NOTABLE ON SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA ACROSS
THE USVI AND APPROACHING EASTERN PR. ISOLATED TSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
SECTIONS. NO CHANGES TO REST OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION... SE FLOW CONTINUES TODAY BCMG E ON WED. SOME OBSCD MTNS
OVR CENTRAL AND NW PR THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLD SHRA THRU
PR/USVI/LEEWARDS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND BLO FL200 SE 14-30 KT GRDLLY
BCMG E LATE TONITE/WED.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY BECOMING EASTERLY WED-THU
WITH SOLID 20-KT. ISOLD TSTMS TUE-FRI. WINDS DIMINISH FRI THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF ANEGADA BUT
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS INCREASES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM AST TUE AUG 26 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. ANOTHER TUTT
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA THU WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN
DURING THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRES EXPECTED TO PASS NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIMIT SEA BREEZE FORMATION AND CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOTTER AND MORE HUMID THAN YESTERDAY WILL MAKE FOR
VERY UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. TRADE WINDS WILL FINALLY ESTABLISH
LATE TONIGHT BUT REMAIN STRONG THRU THURSDAY WITH SOLID 20 KNOTS.
SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRYING WED-THU WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
T-STORMS BUT NOT INTENSITY. STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW EXCEEDING 25 KT
AND MID LEVEL DRYING ON WED WILL AUGMENT DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WITH
SEVERE WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH ANY STRONG CELLS THAT DEVELOP.
FURTHER DRYING AND WEAKENING LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW ON THU SHOULD
REDUCE THE SVR WX POTENTIAL.

TROPICAL WAVE OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS FRI WITH MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST FOCUSING SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS OVR SW PR BUT THESE WILL BE ISOLATED. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST SAT AND SUN WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE
AREA WIDE. MODELS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT THAN 24
HRS AGO WITH ALMOST HALF OF GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS NOW INDICATING
DEVELOPMENT BUT MOST KEEP THE LOW PRES CENTER NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE IT
GETS NORTH OF THE AREA AND WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST ESE OR SE FLOW
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO EXPECT CHANCES OF RAINFALL TO INCREASE
DURING THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...CONT SE FLOW TDY BCMG E WED. SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA NOW OVR
NE CARIBBEAN QUICKLY MOVG TWD PR/USVI. TJPS/TISX TO HV CHC MVFR IN
SHRA/TSRA THIS MRNG WI SOME OBSCD MTNS OVR PR. BUT THESE TO BCM
ISOLD THROUT PR/USVI/LEEWARDS BY AFT. WIND BLO FL200 SE 14-30 KT
GRDLLY BCMG E LATE TONITE/WED.

MARINE...STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY BECOMING EASTERLY WED-THU
WITH SOLID 20-KT. ISOLD TSTMS TUE-FRI. WINDS DIMINISH FRI THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF ANEGADA BUT
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  91  80  91  82 /  10  20  20  20
STT  83  82  83  82 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 261440 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1040 AM AST TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
WATERS...LOCAL ISLANDS AND SOUTH PLAINS OF PR. DRIER AIR IS MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST AND ITS NOTABLE ON SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA ACROSS
THE USVI AND APPROACHING EASTERN PR. ISOLATED TSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
SECTIONS. NO CHANGES TO REST OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION... SE FLOW CONTINUES TODAY BCMG E ON WED. SOME OBSCD MTNS
OVR CENTRAL AND NW PR THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLD SHRA THRU
PR/USVI/LEEWARDS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND BLO FL200 SE 14-30 KT GRDLLY
BCMG E LATE TONITE/WED.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY BECOMING EASTERLY WED-THU
WITH SOLID 20-KT. ISOLD TSTMS TUE-FRI. WINDS DIMINISH FRI THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF ANEGADA BUT
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS INCREASES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM AST TUE AUG 26 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. ANOTHER TUTT
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA THU WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN
DURING THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRES EXPECTED TO PASS NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIMIT SEA BREEZE FORMATION AND CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOTTER AND MORE HUMID THAN YESTERDAY WILL MAKE FOR
VERY UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. TRADE WINDS WILL FINALLY ESTABLISH
LATE TONIGHT BUT REMAIN STRONG THRU THURSDAY WITH SOLID 20 KNOTS.
SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRYING WED-THU WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
T-STORMS BUT NOT INTENSITY. STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW EXCEEDING 25 KT
AND MID LEVEL DRYING ON WED WILL AUGMENT DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WITH
SEVERE WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH ANY STRONG CELLS THAT DEVELOP.
FURTHER DRYING AND WEAKENING LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW ON THU SHOULD
REDUCE THE SVR WX POTENTIAL.

TROPICAL WAVE OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS FRI WITH MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST FOCUSING SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS OVR SW PR BUT THESE WILL BE ISOLATED. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST SAT AND SUN WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE
AREA WIDE. MODELS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT THAN 24
HRS AGO WITH ALMOST HALF OF GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS NOW INDICATING
DEVELOPMENT BUT MOST KEEP THE LOW PRES CENTER NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE IT
GETS NORTH OF THE AREA AND WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST ESE OR SE FLOW
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO EXPECT CHANCES OF RAINFALL TO INCREASE
DURING THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...CONT SE FLOW TDY BCMG E WED. SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA NOW OVR
NE CARIBBEAN QUICKLY MOVG TWD PR/USVI. TJPS/TISX TO HV CHC MVFR IN
SHRA/TSRA THIS MRNG WI SOME OBSCD MTNS OVR PR. BUT THESE TO BCM
ISOLD THROUT PR/USVI/LEEWARDS BY AFT. WIND BLO FL200 SE 14-30 KT
GRDLLY BCMG E LATE TONITE/WED.

MARINE...STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY BECOMING EASTERLY WED-THU
WITH SOLID 20-KT. ISOLD TSTMS TUE-FRI. WINDS DIMINISH FRI THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF ANEGADA BUT
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  91  80  91  82 /  10  20  20  20
STT  83  82  83  82 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/23







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 260828
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
428 AM AST TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. ANOTHER TUTT
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA THU WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN
DURING THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRES EXPECTED TO PASS NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIMIT SEA BREEZE FORMATION AND CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOTTER AND MORE HUMID THAN YESTERDAY WILL MAKE FOR
VERY UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. TRADE WINDS WILL FINALLY ESTABLISH
LATE TONIGHT BUT REMAIN STRONG THRU THURSDAY WITH SOLID 20 KNOTS.
SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRYING WED-THU WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
T-STORMS BUT NOT INTENSITY. STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW EXCEEDING 25 KT
AND MID LEVEL DRYING ON WED WILL AUGMENT DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WITH
SEVERE WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH ANY STRONG CELLS THAT DEVELOP.
FURTHER DRYING AND WEAKENING LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW ON THU SHOULD
REDUCE THE SVR WX POTENTIAL.

TROPICAL WAVE OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS FRI WITH MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST FOCUSING SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS OVR SW PR BUT THESE WILL BE ISOLATED. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST SAT AND SUN WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE
AREA WIDE. MODELS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT THAN 24
HRS AGO WITH ALMOST HALF OF GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS NOW INDICATING
DEVELOPMENT BUT MOST KEEP THE LOW PRES CENTER NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE IT
GETS NORTH OF THE AREA AND WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST ESE OR SE FLOW
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO EXPECT CHANCES OF RAINFALL TO INCREASE
DURING THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...CONT SE FLOW TDY BCMG E WED. SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA NOW OVR
NE CARIBBEAN QUICKLY MOVG TWD PR/USVI. TJPS/TISX TO HV CHC MVFR IN
SHRA/TSRA THIS MRNG WI SOME OBSCD MTNS OVR PR. BUT THESE TO BCM
ISOLD THROUT PR/USVI/LEEWARDS BY AFT. WIND BLO FL200 SE 14-30 KT
GRDLLY BCMG E LATE TONITE/WED.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY BECOMING EASTERLY WED-THU
WITH SOLID 20-KT. ISOLD TSTMS TUE-FRI. WINDS DIMINISH FRI THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF ANEGADA BUT
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS INCREASES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  91  80  91  82 /  10  20  20  20
STT  83  82  83  82 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

54/64









000
FXCA62 TJSJ 260828
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
428 AM AST TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. ANOTHER TUTT
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA THU WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN
DURING THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRES EXPECTED TO PASS NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIMIT SEA BREEZE FORMATION AND CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOTTER AND MORE HUMID THAN YESTERDAY WILL MAKE FOR
VERY UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. TRADE WINDS WILL FINALLY ESTABLISH
LATE TONIGHT BUT REMAIN STRONG THRU THURSDAY WITH SOLID 20 KNOTS.
SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRYING WED-THU WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
T-STORMS BUT NOT INTENSITY. STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW EXCEEDING 25 KT
AND MID LEVEL DRYING ON WED WILL AUGMENT DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WITH
SEVERE WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH ANY STRONG CELLS THAT DEVELOP.
FURTHER DRYING AND WEAKENING LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW ON THU SHOULD
REDUCE THE SVR WX POTENTIAL.

TROPICAL WAVE OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS FRI WITH MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST FOCUSING SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS OVR SW PR BUT THESE WILL BE ISOLATED. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST SAT AND SUN WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE
AREA WIDE. MODELS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT THAN 24
HRS AGO WITH ALMOST HALF OF GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS NOW INDICATING
DEVELOPMENT BUT MOST KEEP THE LOW PRES CENTER NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE IT
GETS NORTH OF THE AREA AND WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST ESE OR SE FLOW
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO EXPECT CHANCES OF RAINFALL TO INCREASE
DURING THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...CONT SE FLOW TDY BCMG E WED. SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA NOW OVR
NE CARIBBEAN QUICKLY MOVG TWD PR/USVI. TJPS/TISX TO HV CHC MVFR IN
SHRA/TSRA THIS MRNG WI SOME OBSCD MTNS OVR PR. BUT THESE TO BCM
ISOLD THROUT PR/USVI/LEEWARDS BY AFT. WIND BLO FL200 SE 14-30 KT
GRDLLY BCMG E LATE TONITE/WED.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY BECOMING EASTERLY WED-THU
WITH SOLID 20-KT. ISOLD TSTMS TUE-FRI. WINDS DIMINISH FRI THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF ANEGADA BUT
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS INCREASES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  91  80  91  82 /  10  20  20  20
STT  83  82  83  82 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

54/64








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 260058
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
858 PM AST MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND
MOVED INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE RANGED BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS AND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVER THESE AREAS
LATER TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
FOR TOMORROW...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS IN THE MORNING... FOLLOWED BY A
ROUND OF SHOWERS OVER NW PR. MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO THE
FORECAST PACKAGE...MAINLY TO ADJUST THE POPS OVER PR.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU FCST PD. A BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO PR AND THE USVI AFT 26/08Z WITH SHRA AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS UNTIL ABOUT 26/16Z. MVFR CONDS PSBL TJPS...TJNR..TIST
AND TISX TIL 26/16Z. CLEARING AFT 26/16Z FROM THE EAST. WINDS ALF
SSE 15 TO 25 KT UP THRU 20 KFT BCMG MORE EASTERLY DURG PD.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 2-4 FT BUILDING TO 3-5 FT ON TUESDAY AS THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS UP TO 20 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM AST MON AUG 25 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE WESTWARD WHILE DISSIPATES. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AMPLIFYING INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN EARLY FRIDAY.
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY. A PAIR OF TROPICAL
WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND A SECOND ONE DURING
THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS LOCAL WATERS...USVI AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...RESULTING IN A BETTER CHANCE OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH
PM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST PUERTO
RICO ON TUESDAY.

A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY
THRU FRIDAY AS SUBSIDENT SIDE OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN.
HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS
IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY
FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A RELIEF TO HOT TEMPERATURES.

A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN IS POSSIBLE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVES
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. NHC GIVES IT 30% CHANCE OF TC
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TC DEVELOPMENT...
THIS FEATURE COULD BE A RAINFALL PRODUCER.

AVIATION...DRY SE FLOW OVR LOCAL ISLANDS MOST OF THIS WEEK...TIL TS
CRISTOBAL MOVE FARTHER N. MAINLY ISOLD SHRA EACH DAY CAUSING ISOLD
MVFR AND FEW OBSCD MTNS IN AFT ACROSS LOCAL TAF SITES. WIND BLO FL100
SE 14-26 KT THRU TUE.

MARINE...A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
TRADE WINDS RETURNING TO THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AND A
SECOND ONE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  81  89 /  20  20  20  20
STT  79  90  79  90 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

12/11






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 260058
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
858 PM AST MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND
MOVED INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE RANGED BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS AND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVER THESE AREAS
LATER TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
FOR TOMORROW...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS IN THE MORNING... FOLLOWED BY A
ROUND OF SHOWERS OVER NW PR. MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO THE
FORECAST PACKAGE...MAINLY TO ADJUST THE POPS OVER PR.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU FCST PD. A BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO PR AND THE USVI AFT 26/08Z WITH SHRA AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS UNTIL ABOUT 26/16Z. MVFR CONDS PSBL TJPS...TJNR..TIST
AND TISX TIL 26/16Z. CLEARING AFT 26/16Z FROM THE EAST. WINDS ALF
SSE 15 TO 25 KT UP THRU 20 KFT BCMG MORE EASTERLY DURG PD.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 2-4 FT BUILDING TO 3-5 FT ON TUESDAY AS THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS UP TO 20 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM AST MON AUG 25 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE WESTWARD WHILE DISSIPATES. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AMPLIFYING INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN EARLY FRIDAY.
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY. A PAIR OF TROPICAL
WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND A SECOND ONE DURING
THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS LOCAL WATERS...USVI AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...RESULTING IN A BETTER CHANCE OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH
PM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST PUERTO
RICO ON TUESDAY.

A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY
THRU FRIDAY AS SUBSIDENT SIDE OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN.
HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS
IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY
FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A RELIEF TO HOT TEMPERATURES.

A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN IS POSSIBLE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVES
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. NHC GIVES IT 30% CHANCE OF TC
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TC DEVELOPMENT...
THIS FEATURE COULD BE A RAINFALL PRODUCER.

AVIATION...DRY SE FLOW OVR LOCAL ISLANDS MOST OF THIS WEEK...TIL TS
CRISTOBAL MOVE FARTHER N. MAINLY ISOLD SHRA EACH DAY CAUSING ISOLD
MVFR AND FEW OBSCD MTNS IN AFT ACROSS LOCAL TAF SITES. WIND BLO FL100
SE 14-26 KT THRU TUE.

MARINE...A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
TRADE WINDS RETURNING TO THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AND A
SECOND ONE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  81  89 /  20  20  20  20
STT  79  90  79  90 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

12/11







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251910
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 PM AST MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE WESTWARD WHILE DISSIPATES. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AMPLIFYING INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN EARLY FRIDAY.
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY. A PAIR OF TROPICAL
WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND A SECOND ONE DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS LOCAL WATERS...USVI AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...RESULTING IN A BETTER CHANCE OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH
PM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST PUERTO
RICO ON TUESDAY.

A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY
THRU FRIDAY AS SUBSIDENT SIDE OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN.
HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS
IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY
FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A RELIEF TO HOT TEMPERATURES.

A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN IS POSSIBLE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVES
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. NHC GIVES IT 30% CHANCE OF TC
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TC DEVELOPMENT...
THIS FEATURE COULD BE A RAINFALL PRODUCER.

&&

.AVIATION...DRY SE FLOW OVR LOCAL ISLANDS MOST OF THIS WEEK...TIL TS
CRISTOBAL MOVE FARTHER N. MAINLY ISOLD SHRA EACH DAY CAUSING ISOLD
MVFR AND FEW OBSCD MTNS IN AFT ACROSS LOCAL TAF SITES. WIND BLO FL100
SE 14-26 KT THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
TRADE WINDS RETURNING TO THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AND A
SECOND ONE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  81  89 /  20  20  20  20
STT  79  90  79  90 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251910
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 PM AST MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE WESTWARD WHILE DISSIPATES. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AMPLIFYING INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN EARLY FRIDAY.
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY. A PAIR OF TROPICAL
WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND A SECOND ONE DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS LOCAL WATERS...USVI AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...RESULTING IN A BETTER CHANCE OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH
PM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST PUERTO
RICO ON TUESDAY.

A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY
THRU FRIDAY AS SUBSIDENT SIDE OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN.
HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS
IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY
FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A RELIEF TO HOT TEMPERATURES.

A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN IS POSSIBLE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVES
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. NHC GIVES IT 30% CHANCE OF TC
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TC DEVELOPMENT...
THIS FEATURE COULD BE A RAINFALL PRODUCER.

&&

.AVIATION...DRY SE FLOW OVR LOCAL ISLANDS MOST OF THIS WEEK...TIL TS
CRISTOBAL MOVE FARTHER N. MAINLY ISOLD SHRA EACH DAY CAUSING ISOLD
MVFR AND FEW OBSCD MTNS IN AFT ACROSS LOCAL TAF SITES. WIND BLO FL100
SE 14-26 KT THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
TRADE WINDS RETURNING TO THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AND A
SECOND ONE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  81  89 /  20  20  20  20
STT  79  90  79  90 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/23







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251448
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1048 AM AST MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED THIS MORNING
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND LOCAL ISLANDS. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AFTER SUNRISE HOWEVER THESE WERE NOT SIGNIFICANT.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT WITH FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...EASTERN PR
AND COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...DRY SE FLOW OVR LOCAL ISLANDS MOST OF THIS WEEK...TIL TS
CRISTOBAL MOVE FARTHER N. MAINLY ISOLD SHRA EACH DAY CAUSING ISOLD MVFR
AND FEW OBSCD MTNS IN AFT ACROSS NORTH PR. WIND BLO FL100 SE 14-26 KT
THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS DUE TO WINDS OF UP TO AROUND 20 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM AST MON AUG 25 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW OVR THE ERN CARIB WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL
CARIB TUE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ON TUE WITH ANOTHER
TUTT EXPECTED THU AND FRI. A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE AND A SECOND ONE DURING THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...MAIN STORY THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE OPPRESSIVE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ESPECIALLY ON TUE WHEN MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGE
REACHING MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE...STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HUMIDITY
INCREASING. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TUE BUT DON`T THINK IT WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH CLOUDS OR
SHOWERS TO BRING A RELIEF TO THE HOT WX. STILL HOT ON WED DESPITE
TRADE WINDS RETURNING TO THE BASIN.

MAINLY FAIR WX WED-FRI AS SUBSIDENT SIDE OF NEXT TUTT MOVES IN.
TEMPS COOLING DOWN SOME THU-FRI ESPECIALLY FRI. NEXT WAVE LOCATED
ALONG 38W HAS A WEAK LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. NHC GIVING IT
20% CHANCE OF TC DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS BUT IT HAS
HARDLY ANY SUPPORT FOR DEVELOPMENT FROM EITHER THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS...ECMWF OR THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ONLY THE
UNREALIABLE CANADIAN AND NAVGEM MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. REGARDLESS OF TC DEVELOPMENT...THE WAVE COULD
STILL BE A SIG RAINFALL PRODUCER AS MODELS SHOW THE WAVE SLOWING
DOWN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE
WEEKEND. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POPS AND CLOUDS EVERYWHERE TO
INDICATE BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL FOR THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION...DRY SE FLOW WL CONT OVR LCL ISLANDS MOST OF THIS WEEK...
TIL TS CRISTOBAL MOV FARTHER N. MAINLY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY
CAUSING ISOLD MVFR AND FEW OBSCD MTNS IN AFT. WIND BLO FL100 SE
14-26 KT THRU TUE.

MARINE...WINDS STRENGTHENING THROUGH WED AS TS CRISTOBAL MOVES
NORTH AND BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH SHIFTS WWD. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE. WINDS DIMINISH THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS PRES GRADIENT RELAXES UNLESS WAVE DEVELOPS INTO A TC WHICH
SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  89  81 /  20   0  20  20
STT  82  81  82  82 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/23







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251448
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1048 AM AST MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED THIS MORNING
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND LOCAL ISLANDS. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AFTER SUNRISE HOWEVER THESE WERE NOT SIGNIFICANT.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT WITH FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...EASTERN PR
AND COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...DRY SE FLOW OVR LOCAL ISLANDS MOST OF THIS WEEK...TIL TS
CRISTOBAL MOVE FARTHER N. MAINLY ISOLD SHRA EACH DAY CAUSING ISOLD MVFR
AND FEW OBSCD MTNS IN AFT ACROSS NORTH PR. WIND BLO FL100 SE 14-26 KT
THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS DUE TO WINDS OF UP TO AROUND 20 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM AST MON AUG 25 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW OVR THE ERN CARIB WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL
CARIB TUE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ON TUE WITH ANOTHER
TUTT EXPECTED THU AND FRI. A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE AND A SECOND ONE DURING THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...MAIN STORY THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE OPPRESSIVE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ESPECIALLY ON TUE WHEN MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGE
REACHING MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE...STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HUMIDITY
INCREASING. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TUE BUT DON`T THINK IT WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH CLOUDS OR
SHOWERS TO BRING A RELIEF TO THE HOT WX. STILL HOT ON WED DESPITE
TRADE WINDS RETURNING TO THE BASIN.

MAINLY FAIR WX WED-FRI AS SUBSIDENT SIDE OF NEXT TUTT MOVES IN.
TEMPS COOLING DOWN SOME THU-FRI ESPECIALLY FRI. NEXT WAVE LOCATED
ALONG 38W HAS A WEAK LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. NHC GIVING IT
20% CHANCE OF TC DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS BUT IT HAS
HARDLY ANY SUPPORT FOR DEVELOPMENT FROM EITHER THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS...ECMWF OR THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ONLY THE
UNREALIABLE CANADIAN AND NAVGEM MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. REGARDLESS OF TC DEVELOPMENT...THE WAVE COULD
STILL BE A SIG RAINFALL PRODUCER AS MODELS SHOW THE WAVE SLOWING
DOWN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE
WEEKEND. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POPS AND CLOUDS EVERYWHERE TO
INDICATE BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL FOR THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION...DRY SE FLOW WL CONT OVR LCL ISLANDS MOST OF THIS WEEK...
TIL TS CRISTOBAL MOV FARTHER N. MAINLY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY
CAUSING ISOLD MVFR AND FEW OBSCD MTNS IN AFT. WIND BLO FL100 SE
14-26 KT THRU TUE.

MARINE...WINDS STRENGTHENING THROUGH WED AS TS CRISTOBAL MOVES
NORTH AND BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH SHIFTS WWD. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE. WINDS DIMINISH THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS PRES GRADIENT RELAXES UNLESS WAVE DEVELOPS INTO A TC WHICH
SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  89  81 /  20   0  20  20
STT  82  81  82  82 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/23






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