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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 241345
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
945 AM AST THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...HISTORY OF GFS IS THAT IT HASN/T HANDLED THE HIGH
GRADIENT OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE. HOWEVER IT
APPEARS TO BE DOING SO NOW AND 12Z TJSJ EVEN ARRIVED WITH A LITTLE
DEEPER MOISTURE THAN GFS EXPECTED WHERE SHALLOW WAS ANTICIPATED
ATTM. BUT SHOWERS/THUNDER ARE WELL TOWARDS THE SOUTH CURRENTLY AND
BACKED OFF ON THE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA INCR IN AFT BUT NOT AS MUCH AS XPTD EARLIER.
VFR THRU MUCH OF AFT THEN IFR/MVFR DVLG IN SHRA WI AREAS OBSCD
MTNS.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXCEPT FOR LATER ARRIVAL OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISSUED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL FALL INTO 40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS SOUTH COAST WHILE WINDS WILL
KICK UP. INCREASING SHOWERS AND MORE ONSHORE FLOW WILL IMPROVE
CONDITIONS DURING AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  79 /  30  40  40  30
STT  90  80  88  80 /  30  50  50  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AST FRIDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM AST FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AST FRIDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM AST FRIDAY
     FOR MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

54/10







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 241345
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
945 AM AST THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...HISTORY OF GFS IS THAT IT HASN/T HANDLED THE HIGH
GRADIENT OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE. HOWEVER IT
APPEARS TO BE DOING SO NOW AND 12Z TJSJ EVEN ARRIVED WITH A LITTLE
DEEPER MOISTURE THAN GFS EXPECTED WHERE SHALLOW WAS ANTICIPATED
ATTM. BUT SHOWERS/THUNDER ARE WELL TOWARDS THE SOUTH CURRENTLY AND
BACKED OFF ON THE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA INCR IN AFT BUT NOT AS MUCH AS XPTD EARLIER.
VFR THRU MUCH OF AFT THEN IFR/MVFR DVLG IN SHRA WI AREAS OBSCD
MTNS.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXCEPT FOR LATER ARRIVAL OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISSUED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL FALL INTO 40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS SOUTH COAST WHILE WINDS WILL
KICK UP. INCREASING SHOWERS AND MORE ONSHORE FLOW WILL IMPROVE
CONDITIONS DURING AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  79 /  30  40  40  30
STT  90  80  88  80 /  30  50  50  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AST FRIDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM AST FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AST FRIDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM AST FRIDAY
     FOR MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

54/10






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240946
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
546 AM AST THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO NOW A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MODERATE TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE TROPICAL WAVE WAS NOW
QUICKLY CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ENTERING THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...EARLIER ASCAT
PASSES...AND A FEW SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS...SUGGESTS THAT THE
WAVE AXIS WAS JUST EAST OF THE ISLANDS WITH WINDS UP TO AROUND 25
MPH OR SO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TUTT LOW REMAINS WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION WHILE RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR...AND THE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT
ALL SUGGESTED A SLOT OF DRIER AIR CROSSING THE LOCAL REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT PASSING SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...
THE TROPICAL WAVE WAS QUICKLY CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND EXPECT
MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WAVE AXIS
TO QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE DAY.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE WELL AND STILL SUGGEST
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY RAPID DRYING OF THE LOCAL AIR MASS AS THE WAVE EXITS
THE REGION AND AN EXTENSIVE SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND HIGH CONCENTRATION
OF SAHARAN DUST WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WITH THAT SAID...DECIDED TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH THE INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE WHICH STILL CALLED FOR INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION
WITH BETTER CHANCE OF MODEST AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS
AND SURROUNDING WATERS. ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION STILL EXPECT SUFFICIENT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
TRAIL THE WAVE TO ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME RAINFALL MAY BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES AND MAY LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME
AREAS ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
24/16Z. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED OVER
TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING AND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY WILL CREATE ROUGH
AND HAZARDOUS SEAS AND UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL
WATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE. IN ADDITION...THE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS WITH SQUALLS LATER TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  79 /  50  40  40  30
STT  90  80  88  80 /  50  50  50  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM AST FRIDAY
     FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM AST FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM AST FRIDAY
     FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM AST FRIDAY
     FOR MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

71/09






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240946
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
546 AM AST THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO NOW A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MODERATE TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE TROPICAL WAVE WAS NOW
QUICKLY CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ENTERING THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...EARLIER ASCAT
PASSES...AND A FEW SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS...SUGGESTS THAT THE
WAVE AXIS WAS JUST EAST OF THE ISLANDS WITH WINDS UP TO AROUND 25
MPH OR SO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TUTT LOW REMAINS WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION WHILE RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR...AND THE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT
ALL SUGGESTED A SLOT OF DRIER AIR CROSSING THE LOCAL REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT PASSING SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...
THE TROPICAL WAVE WAS QUICKLY CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND EXPECT
MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WAVE AXIS
TO QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE DAY.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE WELL AND STILL SUGGEST
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY RAPID DRYING OF THE LOCAL AIR MASS AS THE WAVE EXITS
THE REGION AND AN EXTENSIVE SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND HIGH CONCENTRATION
OF SAHARAN DUST WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WITH THAT SAID...DECIDED TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH THE INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE WHICH STILL CALLED FOR INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION
WITH BETTER CHANCE OF MODEST AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS
AND SURROUNDING WATERS. ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION STILL EXPECT SUFFICIENT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
TRAIL THE WAVE TO ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME RAINFALL MAY BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES AND MAY LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME
AREAS ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
24/16Z. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED OVER
TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING AND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY WILL CREATE ROUGH
AND HAZARDOUS SEAS AND UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL
WATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE. IN ADDITION...THE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS WITH SQUALLS LATER TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  79 /  50  40  40  30
STT  90  80  88  80 /  50  50  50  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM AST FRIDAY
     FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM AST FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM AST FRIDAY
     FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM AST FRIDAY
     FOR MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

71/09







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240223
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1023 PM AST WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR THIS EVENING DETECTED ONLY LIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. NOT
PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS EVENING. A
GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH ONLY FEW AREAS OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADES PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT ISOLATED
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING...
DEPICTED A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...FORMER DEPRESSION TWO...JUST NEAR
THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD TONIGHT
PASSING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY. AS THE WAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE UNSTABLE
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BRIEF
-SHRA AT TJSJ...TIST...TKPK AND TNCM THROUGH MORNING HOURS.
SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA AFTER
24/12Z...AFFECTING ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND TNCM...TKPK...TIST...
TISX...TJSJ...TJPS. ALSO...SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PR
AFTER 24/17Z...THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS AT TJMZ AND
TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY BRING THE
THREAT OF LIGHTNING...GUSTY WIND AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS WHICH MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. INCREASING TRADE WINDS WILL ALSO BOOST SEAS
TO 7 FT OR SO ON THE CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS BY THURSDAY. GFS
MAINTAINS STRENGTH OF THE WAVE WHILE PASSING SOUTH OF ST. CROIX AND
PR ON THU. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECTS FOR CARIBBEAN
WATERS TOMORROW THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM AST WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A
WAVE BUT WILL REMAIN A STRONG WAVE ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN. 12Z GFS
MAINTAINS 40 KNOT WINDS AT 4 KFT ONLY 60 NM SOUTH OF ST. CROIX AND
SOUTH PR COAST ON THU/18Z WHICH MIGHT BE A LITTLE OVERDONE THOUGH
GFS MOVES IT ALONG AT 20 KT ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN. INCREASING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THU MORNING
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER MAINTAINING 2.4 INCHES WHILE IT DOES. GRIDS
WERE UPGRADED FOR THIS WHICH APPEARS LIKELY AS IT WILL NOT
EFFECTIVELY LEAVE THE ITCZ DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE WAVE
IS STILL NOT LIKELY TO REDEVELOP INTO A DEPRESSION ESPECIALLY AS
IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER THE LOW LEVEL CARIBBEAN JET LATE THU...
WHICH WILL ABSORB THE WAVE. FLOODING MAY NOT BE A SUBSTANTIAL
THREAT SINCE IT WILL BE MOVING SO QUICKLY BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
INTENSE THE SHOWERS BECOME.

AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA OV W PR WL DECR LATE AFT BUT IFR A THREAT AT
TJMZ FOR NXT COUPLE OF HRS. OTW ISOLD SHRA THRUOUT AREA INTO
TONITE. SHRA/TSRA INCR ON THU FM TROPICAL WV ALG WI IFR/MVFR ALL
TAF SITES AND OBSCD MTNS. WIND BLO FL150 E 15-25 KT INCR 20-30 KT
LATE TONITE.

MARINE...INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY BRING
THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING...GUSTY WIND AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS WHICH
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. INCREASING TRADE WINDS WILL ALSO
BOOST SEAS TO 7 FT OR SO ON THE CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS BY LATE
FRI. GFS MAINTAINS STRENGTH OF THE WAVE WHILE PASSING SOUTH OF ST.
CROIX AND PR ON THU. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR
CARIBBEAN WATERS TOMORROW IF THIS APPEARS LIKELY. STRONG WIND
GUSTS IN CONVECTION AT LEAST SEEMS A GOOD BET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  91  79  90 /  40  50  40  40
STT  81  91  80  91 /  40  50  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM AST FRIDAY FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM AST FRIDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT
     10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM AST FRIDAY FOR
     CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM AST FRIDAY FOR
     MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

05/72






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240223
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1023 PM AST WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR THIS EVENING DETECTED ONLY LIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. NOT
PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS EVENING. A
GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH ONLY FEW AREAS OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADES PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT ISOLATED
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING...
DEPICTED A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...FORMER DEPRESSION TWO...JUST NEAR
THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD TONIGHT
PASSING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY. AS THE WAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE UNSTABLE
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BRIEF
-SHRA AT TJSJ...TIST...TKPK AND TNCM THROUGH MORNING HOURS.
SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA AFTER
24/12Z...AFFECTING ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND TNCM...TKPK...TIST...
TISX...TJSJ...TJPS. ALSO...SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PR
AFTER 24/17Z...THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS AT TJMZ AND
TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY BRING THE
THREAT OF LIGHTNING...GUSTY WIND AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS WHICH MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. INCREASING TRADE WINDS WILL ALSO BOOST SEAS
TO 7 FT OR SO ON THE CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS BY THURSDAY. GFS
MAINTAINS STRENGTH OF THE WAVE WHILE PASSING SOUTH OF ST. CROIX AND
PR ON THU. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECTS FOR CARIBBEAN
WATERS TOMORROW THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM AST WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A
WAVE BUT WILL REMAIN A STRONG WAVE ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN. 12Z GFS
MAINTAINS 40 KNOT WINDS AT 4 KFT ONLY 60 NM SOUTH OF ST. CROIX AND
SOUTH PR COAST ON THU/18Z WHICH MIGHT BE A LITTLE OVERDONE THOUGH
GFS MOVES IT ALONG AT 20 KT ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN. INCREASING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THU MORNING
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER MAINTAINING 2.4 INCHES WHILE IT DOES. GRIDS
WERE UPGRADED FOR THIS WHICH APPEARS LIKELY AS IT WILL NOT
EFFECTIVELY LEAVE THE ITCZ DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE WAVE
IS STILL NOT LIKELY TO REDEVELOP INTO A DEPRESSION ESPECIALLY AS
IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER THE LOW LEVEL CARIBBEAN JET LATE THU...
WHICH WILL ABSORB THE WAVE. FLOODING MAY NOT BE A SUBSTANTIAL
THREAT SINCE IT WILL BE MOVING SO QUICKLY BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
INTENSE THE SHOWERS BECOME.

AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA OV W PR WL DECR LATE AFT BUT IFR A THREAT AT
TJMZ FOR NXT COUPLE OF HRS. OTW ISOLD SHRA THRUOUT AREA INTO
TONITE. SHRA/TSRA INCR ON THU FM TROPICAL WV ALG WI IFR/MVFR ALL
TAF SITES AND OBSCD MTNS. WIND BLO FL150 E 15-25 KT INCR 20-30 KT
LATE TONITE.

MARINE...INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY BRING
THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING...GUSTY WIND AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS WHICH
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. INCREASING TRADE WINDS WILL ALSO
BOOST SEAS TO 7 FT OR SO ON THE CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS BY LATE
FRI. GFS MAINTAINS STRENGTH OF THE WAVE WHILE PASSING SOUTH OF ST.
CROIX AND PR ON THU. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR
CARIBBEAN WATERS TOMORROW IF THIS APPEARS LIKELY. STRONG WIND
GUSTS IN CONVECTION AT LEAST SEEMS A GOOD BET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  91  79  90 /  40  50  40  40
STT  81  91  80  91 /  40  50  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM AST FRIDAY FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM AST FRIDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT
     10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM AST FRIDAY FOR
     CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM AST FRIDAY FOR
     MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

05/72







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 231912
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A
WAVE BUT WILL REMAIN A STRONG WAVE ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN. 12Z GFS
MAINTAINS 40 KNOT WINDS AT 4 KFT ONLY 60 NM SOUTH OF ST. CROIX AND
SOUTH PR COAST ON THU/18Z WHICH MIGHT BE A LITTLE OVERDONE THOUGH
GFS MOVES IT ALONG AT 20 KT ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN. INCREASING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THU MORNING
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER MAINTAINING 2.4 INCHES WHILE IT DOES. GRIDS
WERE UPGRADED FOR THIS WHICH APPEARS LIKELY AS IT WILL NOT
EFFECTIVELY LEAVE THE ITCZ DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE WAVE
IS STILL NOT LIKELY TO REDEVELOP INTO A DEPRESSION ESPECIALLY AS
IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER THE LOW LEVEL CARIBBEAN JET LATE THU...
WHICH WILL ABSORB THE WAVE. FLOODING MAY NOT BE A SUBSTANTIAL
THREAT SINCE IT WILL BE MOVING SO QUICKLY BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
INTENSE THE SHOWERS BECOME.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA OV W PR WL DECR LATE AFT BUT IFR A THREAT AT
TJMZ FOR NXT COUPLE OF HRS. OTW ISOLD SHRA THRUOUT AREA INTO
TONITE. SHRA/TSRA INCR ON THU FM TROPICAL WV ALG WI IFR/MVFR ALL
TAF SITES AND OBSCD MTNS. WIND BLO FL150 E 15-25 KT INCR 20-30 KT
LATE TONITE.

&&

.MARINE...INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY BRING
THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING...GUSTY WIND AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS WHICH
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. INCREASING TRADE WINDS WILL ALSO
BOOST SEAS TO 7 FT OR SO ON THE CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS BY LATE
FRI. GFS MAINTAINS STRENGTH OF THE WAVE WHILE PASSING SOUTH OF ST.
CROIX AND PR ON THU. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR
CARIBBEAN WATERS TOMORROW IF THIS APPEARS LIKELY. STRONG WIND
GUSTS IN CONVECTION AT LEAST SEEMS A GOOD BET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  91  79  90 /  40  50  40  40
STT  81  91  80  91 /  40  50  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 231912
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A
WAVE BUT WILL REMAIN A STRONG WAVE ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN. 12Z GFS
MAINTAINS 40 KNOT WINDS AT 4 KFT ONLY 60 NM SOUTH OF ST. CROIX AND
SOUTH PR COAST ON THU/18Z WHICH MIGHT BE A LITTLE OVERDONE THOUGH
GFS MOVES IT ALONG AT 20 KT ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN. INCREASING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THU MORNING
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER MAINTAINING 2.4 INCHES WHILE IT DOES. GRIDS
WERE UPGRADED FOR THIS WHICH APPEARS LIKELY AS IT WILL NOT
EFFECTIVELY LEAVE THE ITCZ DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE WAVE
IS STILL NOT LIKELY TO REDEVELOP INTO A DEPRESSION ESPECIALLY AS
IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER THE LOW LEVEL CARIBBEAN JET LATE THU...
WHICH WILL ABSORB THE WAVE. FLOODING MAY NOT BE A SUBSTANTIAL
THREAT SINCE IT WILL BE MOVING SO QUICKLY BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
INTENSE THE SHOWERS BECOME.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA OV W PR WL DECR LATE AFT BUT IFR A THREAT AT
TJMZ FOR NXT COUPLE OF HRS. OTW ISOLD SHRA THRUOUT AREA INTO
TONITE. SHRA/TSRA INCR ON THU FM TROPICAL WV ALG WI IFR/MVFR ALL
TAF SITES AND OBSCD MTNS. WIND BLO FL150 E 15-25 KT INCR 20-30 KT
LATE TONITE.

&&

.MARINE...INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY BRING
THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING...GUSTY WIND AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS WHICH
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. INCREASING TRADE WINDS WILL ALSO
BOOST SEAS TO 7 FT OR SO ON THE CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS BY LATE
FRI. GFS MAINTAINS STRENGTH OF THE WAVE WHILE PASSING SOUTH OF ST.
CROIX AND PR ON THU. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR
CARIBBEAN WATERS TOMORROW IF THIS APPEARS LIKELY. STRONG WIND
GUSTS IN CONVECTION AT LEAST SEEMS A GOOD BET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  91  79  90 /  40  50  40  40
STT  81  91  80  91 /  40  50  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230900
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TUTT LIES OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND
SEPARATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE TUTT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH IS TO
MEANDER ACROSS THAT AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARDS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOCAL
REGION. MEANWHILE....THE BROAD MONSOONAL TROUGH BULGES SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARDS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...BASED ON THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AT 5 AM AST...WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.9 N...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TODAY...AND THE DEPRESSION IS STILL EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW OR TROPICAL WAVE LATE TODAY...OR ON THURSDAY
AS IT ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED PATCHES
SHALLOW LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADES
TRANSPORTING MAINLY LIGHT ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST...
A GENERALLY DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. LATEST NAPS AEROSOL SUGGEST SLIGHT DECREASE IN
SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH
HIGH CONCENTRATION OF DUST IS EXPECTED TO TRAIL THE DEPRESSION/REMNANT
LOW AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY...LOCAL TERRAIN AND DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO THURSDAY.

AS FAR AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THE SYSTEM AS AN OPEN WAVE BY THAT TIME IT
ARRIVES TO OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL
TROPICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS AND LOCAL ISLANDS BY LATE THURSDAY
AND THROUGH FRIDAY. STAY TUNED AS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AN SEE
HOW THIS UNFOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BRIEF
SHRA IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TIST AND TNCM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PR AFTER 23/17Z...THIS MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS AT TJMZ AND TJBQ. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE EAST TO E-SE AT ABOUT 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WERE MAINLY 3 TO 5 FEET BASED OF THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS WITH WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGIONAL WATERS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED
TODAY AND DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE DEPRESSION
OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. IN ADDITION...
DURING THAT TIME AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH AREAS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  91  79  90  79 /  20  10  10  30
STT  90  80  90  81 /  30  20  20  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

71/09






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230900
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TUTT LIES OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND
SEPARATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE TUTT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH IS TO
MEANDER ACROSS THAT AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARDS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOCAL
REGION. MEANWHILE....THE BROAD MONSOONAL TROUGH BULGES SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARDS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...BASED ON THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AT 5 AM AST...WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.9 N...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TODAY...AND THE DEPRESSION IS STILL EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW OR TROPICAL WAVE LATE TODAY...OR ON THURSDAY
AS IT ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED PATCHES
SHALLOW LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADES
TRANSPORTING MAINLY LIGHT ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST...
A GENERALLY DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. LATEST NAPS AEROSOL SUGGEST SLIGHT DECREASE IN
SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH
HIGH CONCENTRATION OF DUST IS EXPECTED TO TRAIL THE DEPRESSION/REMNANT
LOW AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY...LOCAL TERRAIN AND DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO THURSDAY.

AS FAR AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THE SYSTEM AS AN OPEN WAVE BY THAT TIME IT
ARRIVES TO OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL
TROPICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS AND LOCAL ISLANDS BY LATE THURSDAY
AND THROUGH FRIDAY. STAY TUNED AS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AN SEE
HOW THIS UNFOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BRIEF
SHRA IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TIST AND TNCM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PR AFTER 23/17Z...THIS MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS AT TJMZ AND TJBQ. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE EAST TO E-SE AT ABOUT 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WERE MAINLY 3 TO 5 FEET BASED OF THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS WITH WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGIONAL WATERS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED
TODAY AND DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE DEPRESSION
OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. IN ADDITION...
DURING THAT TIME AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH AREAS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  91  79  90  79 /  20  10  10  30
STT  90  80  90  81 /  30  20  20  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

71/09







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230201
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1001 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR THIS EVENING DEPICTED ONLY LIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOMPASS THE REGION TONIGHT. SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
TONIGHT UNTIL THURSDAY CAUSING HAZY SKIES AND KEEPING SHOWERS
ISOLATED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PR IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...FEW AREAS OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADES WILL ALSO CAUSE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT ISOLATED
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...BASED ON THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AT 5 PM AST...WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.9 N...LONGITUDE 49.6 WEST...MOVING WEST NEAR 18 MPH.
THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE DEPRESSION WILL INHIBIT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION AND THEREFORE THE DEPRESSION IS STILL EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW OR TROPICAL WAVE BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AS IT
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BRIEF SHRA
IN AND AROUND JSJ/IST AND NCM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PR AFTER 23/17Z...THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
MVFR CONDS AT TJMZ AND TJBQ. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO E-SE AT
ABOUT 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WERE 3 TO 5 FEET BASED OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
WITH WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. DURING THAT TIME AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
REMAINS STRONG AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY. INCREASE IN MOISTURE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE
TO THE CURRENT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE IT GETS TO THE LOCAL AREA.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED TODAY
WITH SOME OF THEM PERSISTING OVER SECTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO.
THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY LIGHT AND
ISOLATED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EVEN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE
TODAY UNTIL THURSDAY CAUSING HAZY SKIES AND KEEPING SHOWERS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...BASED ON THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AT 1100 AM AST...THE
DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 N...LONGITUDE 48.0
WEST...MOVING WEST NEAR 17 MPH. A SLOW WEST NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN STRENGTH AS THIS FEATURE WILL ENTER A MORE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AND LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS PRESENT
SCENARIO...SHOULD THEREFORE INHIBIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND THEREFORE
THE DEPRESSION IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW OR
TROPICAL WAVE BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

EVEN IF IT WEAKENS INTO A TROPICAL WAVE...THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. STARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SHOWERS MAY
START AFFECTING THE USVI THEN FRIDAY MORNING STARTING ACROSS PR.
IT IS A BIT EARLY TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE BUT AT THIS TIME THE
LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN USVI AS WELL AS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PR
UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT IT WILL NOT RAIN
ELSEWHERE...BUT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AT THIS TIME SEEMS TO BE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

AVIATION...PASSING L/LVL CLD LYRA BTW FL025-FL080 AND ISOLD-SCT SHRA
WILL MOV ACROSS THE FLYING AREA AND AFFECT MOST TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR
TJPS TIL AT LEAST 22/22Z. SCT SHRA/PSBL ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED OVR W PR
DURG AFT TIL 22/22Z WITH BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCR/MVFR DUE TO SHRA/LOW
CIG. WIND BLO FL200 FM SE BTW 15-25 KT BCMG E LATER TONITE AND WED
AM. RECENT LOCAL ASSESSMENT TOOLS SUGGEST PSBL FAIR WX WATERSPOUTS
WITH PREVAILING SE STREAMER WND FLOW TIL AT LEAST 22/23Z...MAINLY
BTW ERN PR AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.

MARINE...SEAS WERE 3 TO 5 FEET BASED OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
WITH WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. DURING THAT TIME AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  90  79  90 /  20  20  10  10
STT  80  90  80  91 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/72






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230201
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1001 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR THIS EVENING DEPICTED ONLY LIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOMPASS THE REGION TONIGHT. SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
TONIGHT UNTIL THURSDAY CAUSING HAZY SKIES AND KEEPING SHOWERS
ISOLATED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PR IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...FEW AREAS OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADES WILL ALSO CAUSE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT ISOLATED
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...BASED ON THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AT 5 PM AST...WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.9 N...LONGITUDE 49.6 WEST...MOVING WEST NEAR 18 MPH.
THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE DEPRESSION WILL INHIBIT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION AND THEREFORE THE DEPRESSION IS STILL EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW OR TROPICAL WAVE BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AS IT
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BRIEF SHRA
IN AND AROUND JSJ/IST AND NCM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PR AFTER 23/17Z...THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
MVFR CONDS AT TJMZ AND TJBQ. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO E-SE AT
ABOUT 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WERE 3 TO 5 FEET BASED OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
WITH WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. DURING THAT TIME AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
REMAINS STRONG AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY. INCREASE IN MOISTURE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE
TO THE CURRENT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE IT GETS TO THE LOCAL AREA.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED TODAY
WITH SOME OF THEM PERSISTING OVER SECTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO.
THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY LIGHT AND
ISOLATED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EVEN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE
TODAY UNTIL THURSDAY CAUSING HAZY SKIES AND KEEPING SHOWERS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...BASED ON THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AT 1100 AM AST...THE
DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 N...LONGITUDE 48.0
WEST...MOVING WEST NEAR 17 MPH. A SLOW WEST NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN STRENGTH AS THIS FEATURE WILL ENTER A MORE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AND LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS PRESENT
SCENARIO...SHOULD THEREFORE INHIBIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND THEREFORE
THE DEPRESSION IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW OR
TROPICAL WAVE BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

EVEN IF IT WEAKENS INTO A TROPICAL WAVE...THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. STARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SHOWERS MAY
START AFFECTING THE USVI THEN FRIDAY MORNING STARTING ACROSS PR.
IT IS A BIT EARLY TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE BUT AT THIS TIME THE
LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN USVI AS WELL AS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PR
UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT IT WILL NOT RAIN
ELSEWHERE...BUT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AT THIS TIME SEEMS TO BE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

AVIATION...PASSING L/LVL CLD LYRA BTW FL025-FL080 AND ISOLD-SCT SHRA
WILL MOV ACROSS THE FLYING AREA AND AFFECT MOST TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR
TJPS TIL AT LEAST 22/22Z. SCT SHRA/PSBL ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED OVR W PR
DURG AFT TIL 22/22Z WITH BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCR/MVFR DUE TO SHRA/LOW
CIG. WIND BLO FL200 FM SE BTW 15-25 KT BCMG E LATER TONITE AND WED
AM. RECENT LOCAL ASSESSMENT TOOLS SUGGEST PSBL FAIR WX WATERSPOUTS
WITH PREVAILING SE STREAMER WND FLOW TIL AT LEAST 22/23Z...MAINLY
BTW ERN PR AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.

MARINE...SEAS WERE 3 TO 5 FEET BASED OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
WITH WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. DURING THAT TIME AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  90  79  90 /  20  20  10  10
STT  80  90  80  91 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/72







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 221853
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
REMAINS STRONG AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY. INCREASE IN MOISTURE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE
TO THE CURRENT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE IT GETS TO THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED TODAY
WITH SOME OF THEM PERSISTING OVER SECTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO.
THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY LIGHT AND
ISOLATED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EVEN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE
TODAY UNTIL THURSDAY CAUSING HAZY SKIES AND KEEPING SHOWERS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...BASED ON THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AT 1100 AM AST...THE
DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 N...LONGITUDE 48.0
WEST...MOVING WEST NEAR 17 MPH. A SLOW WEST NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN STRENGTH AS THIS FEATURE WILL ENTER A MORE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AND LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS PRESENT
SCENARIO...SHOULD THEREFORE INHIBIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND THEREFORE
THE DEPRESSION IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW OR
TROPICAL WAVE BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

EVEN IF IT WEAKENS INTO A TROPICAL WAVE...THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. STARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SHOWERS MAY
START AFFECTING THE USVI THEN FRIDAY MORNING STARTING ACROSS PR.
IT IS A BIT EARLY TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE BUT AT THIS TIME THE
LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN USVI AS WELL AS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PR
UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT IT WILL NOT RAIN
ELSEWHERE...BUT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AT THIS TIME SEEMS TO BE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.


&&

.AVIATION...PASSING L/LVL CLD LYRA BTW FL025-FL080 AND ISOLD-SCT SHRA
WILL MOV ACROSS THE FLYING AREA AND AFFECT MOST TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR
TJPS TIL AT LEAST 22/22Z. SCT SHRA/PSBL ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED OVR W PR
DURG AFT TIL 22/22Z WITH BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCR/MVFR DUE TO SHRA/LOW
CIG. WIND BLO FL200 FM SE BTW 15-25 KT BCMG E LATER TONITE AND WED
AM. RECENT LOCAL ASSESSMENT TOOLS SUGGEST PSBL FAIR WX WATERSPOUTS
WITH PREVAILING SE STREAMER WND FLOW TIL AT LEAST 22/23Z...MAINLY
BTW ERN PR AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WERE 3 TO 5 FEET BASED OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
WITH WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. DURING THAT TIME AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  90  79  90 /  20  20  10  10
STT  80  90  80  91 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 221853
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
REMAINS STRONG AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY. INCREASE IN MOISTURE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE
TO THE CURRENT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE IT GETS TO THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED TODAY
WITH SOME OF THEM PERSISTING OVER SECTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO.
THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY LIGHT AND
ISOLATED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EVEN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE
TODAY UNTIL THURSDAY CAUSING HAZY SKIES AND KEEPING SHOWERS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...BASED ON THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AT 1100 AM AST...THE
DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 N...LONGITUDE 48.0
WEST...MOVING WEST NEAR 17 MPH. A SLOW WEST NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN STRENGTH AS THIS FEATURE WILL ENTER A MORE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AND LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS PRESENT
SCENARIO...SHOULD THEREFORE INHIBIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND THEREFORE
THE DEPRESSION IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW OR
TROPICAL WAVE BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

EVEN IF IT WEAKENS INTO A TROPICAL WAVE...THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. STARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SHOWERS MAY
START AFFECTING THE USVI THEN FRIDAY MORNING STARTING ACROSS PR.
IT IS A BIT EARLY TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE BUT AT THIS TIME THE
LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN USVI AS WELL AS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PR
UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT IT WILL NOT RAIN
ELSEWHERE...BUT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AT THIS TIME SEEMS TO BE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.


&&

.AVIATION...PASSING L/LVL CLD LYRA BTW FL025-FL080 AND ISOLD-SCT SHRA
WILL MOV ACROSS THE FLYING AREA AND AFFECT MOST TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR
TJPS TIL AT LEAST 22/22Z. SCT SHRA/PSBL ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED OVR W PR
DURG AFT TIL 22/22Z WITH BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCR/MVFR DUE TO SHRA/LOW
CIG. WIND BLO FL200 FM SE BTW 15-25 KT BCMG E LATER TONITE AND WED
AM. RECENT LOCAL ASSESSMENT TOOLS SUGGEST PSBL FAIR WX WATERSPOUTS
WITH PREVAILING SE STREAMER WND FLOW TIL AT LEAST 22/23Z...MAINLY
BTW ERN PR AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WERE 3 TO 5 FEET BASED OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
WITH WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. DURING THAT TIME AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  90  79  90 /  20  20  10  10
STT  80  90  80  91 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 221602
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1202 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATION PRESENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
WAS TRANSPORTING SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS TO THE REGION. EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY FOR SOME LOCALLY AND DIURNALLY INDUCED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND NORTH
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IF ANY EXPECTED
OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AS PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
SHOULD PREVAIL.

AS FAR AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...BASED ON THE LATEST INFO FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI...AT 1100 AM AST...THE DEPRESSION
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 N...LONGITUDE 48.0 WEST...MOVING WEST
NEAR 17 MPH. A SLOW WEST NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN
STRENGTH AS THIS FEATURE WILL ENTER A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS PRESENT SCENARIO...SHOULD THEREFORE
INHIBIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND THE DEPRESSION IS STILL EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY...THEN INTO A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE BY THURSDAY...AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST
PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS AVN DISCUSSION.


&&

.MARINE UPDATE...SEAS WERE 3 TO 5 FEET BASED OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
WITH WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. DURING THAT TIME AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED TO LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY WFO
SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN NEXT 48 HOURS. REMNANTS OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT OVER THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS...WITH SOME AFFECTING PUERTO RICO. THESE
SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD. THEREFORE...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION WAS NOT SIGNIFICANT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ONCE AGAIN...AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WILL
COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THIS MORNING IS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WHICH WAS LOCATED AROUND 1400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INDICATES THIS
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN NEXT 48 HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

FOR OUR AREA...STILL EXPECTED A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE LOCAL AREA
BY FRIDAY. LATEST 22/00Z GFS COMPUTER MODEL RUN SHOWED
PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE 2.0 INCHES OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEREFORE...AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS AS THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. STAY TUNED FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO.

AVIATION...SCT SHRA MAINLY OFFSHORE THIS MRNG AND AGAIN TONITE AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS BLO 10 KFT...BUT MVFR WL BE BRIEF/ISOLD AT
TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK. SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WEST PR THIS AFT AND
AGAIN WED AFT WI LCL MVFR AND OBSCD MTNS. WIND BLO FL150 ESE 12-24
KT BCMG E LATE TUE NITE.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  79  92  79 /  40  20  20  10
STT  89  79  91  81 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 221602
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1202 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATION PRESENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
WAS TRANSPORTING SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS TO THE REGION. EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY FOR SOME LOCALLY AND DIURNALLY INDUCED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND NORTH
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IF ANY EXPECTED
OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AS PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
SHOULD PREVAIL.

AS FAR AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...BASED ON THE LATEST INFO FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI...AT 1100 AM AST...THE DEPRESSION
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 N...LONGITUDE 48.0 WEST...MOVING WEST
NEAR 17 MPH. A SLOW WEST NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN
STRENGTH AS THIS FEATURE WILL ENTER A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS PRESENT SCENARIO...SHOULD THEREFORE
INHIBIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND THE DEPRESSION IS STILL EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY...THEN INTO A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE BY THURSDAY...AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST
PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS AVN DISCUSSION.


&&

.MARINE UPDATE...SEAS WERE 3 TO 5 FEET BASED OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
WITH WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. DURING THAT TIME AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED TO LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY WFO
SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN NEXT 48 HOURS. REMNANTS OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT OVER THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS...WITH SOME AFFECTING PUERTO RICO. THESE
SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD. THEREFORE...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION WAS NOT SIGNIFICANT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ONCE AGAIN...AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WILL
COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THIS MORNING IS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WHICH WAS LOCATED AROUND 1400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INDICATES THIS
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN NEXT 48 HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

FOR OUR AREA...STILL EXPECTED A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE LOCAL AREA
BY FRIDAY. LATEST 22/00Z GFS COMPUTER MODEL RUN SHOWED
PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE 2.0 INCHES OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEREFORE...AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS AS THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. STAY TUNED FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO.

AVIATION...SCT SHRA MAINLY OFFSHORE THIS MRNG AND AGAIN TONITE AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS BLO 10 KFT...BUT MVFR WL BE BRIEF/ISOLD AT
TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK. SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WEST PR THIS AFT AND
AGAIN WED AFT WI LCL MVFR AND OBSCD MTNS. WIND BLO FL150 ESE 12-24
KT BCMG E LATE TUE NITE.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  79  92  79 /  40  20  20  10
STT  89  79  91  81 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 220854
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
454 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN NEXT 48 HOURS. REMNANTS OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT OVER THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS...WITH SOME AFFECTING PUERTO RICO. THESE
SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD. THEREFORE...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION WAS NOT SIGNIFICANT. LATEST SATELITE IMAGES SHOWED
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ONCE AGAIN...AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WILL
COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THIS MORNING IS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WHICH WAS LOCATED AROUND 1400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INDICATES THIS
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN NEXT 48 HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

FOR OUR AREA...STILL EXPECTED A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE LOCAL AREA
BY FRIDAY. LATEST 22/00Z GFS COMPUTER MODEL RUN SHOWED
PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE 2.0 INCHES OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEREFORE...AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS AS THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. STAY TUNED FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA MAINLY OFFSHORE THIS MRNG AND AGAIN TONITE AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS BLO 10 KFT...BUT MVFR WL BE BRIEF/ISOLD AT
TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK. SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WEST PR THIS AFT AND
AGAIN WED AFT WI LCL MVFR AND OBSCD MTNS. WIND BLO FL150 ESE 12-24
KT BCMG E LATE TUE NITE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  79  92  79 /  40  20  20  10
STT  89  79  91  81 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

54/71











000
FXCA62 TJSJ 220854
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
454 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN NEXT 48 HOURS. REMNANTS OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT OVER THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS...WITH SOME AFFECTING PUERTO RICO. THESE
SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD. THEREFORE...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION WAS NOT SIGNIFICANT. LATEST SATELITE IMAGES SHOWED
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ONCE AGAIN...AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WILL
COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THIS MORNING IS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WHICH WAS LOCATED AROUND 1400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INDICATES THIS
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN NEXT 48 HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

FOR OUR AREA...STILL EXPECTED A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE LOCAL AREA
BY FRIDAY. LATEST 22/00Z GFS COMPUTER MODEL RUN SHOWED
PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE 2.0 INCHES OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEREFORE...AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS AS THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. STAY TUNED FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA MAINLY OFFSHORE THIS MRNG AND AGAIN TONITE AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS BLO 10 KFT...BUT MVFR WL BE BRIEF/ISOLD AT
TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK. SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WEST PR THIS AFT AND
AGAIN WED AFT WI LCL MVFR AND OBSCD MTNS. WIND BLO FL150 ESE 12-24
KT BCMG E LATE TUE NITE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  79  92  79 /  40  20  20  10
STT  89  79  91  81 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

54/71










000
FXCA62 TJSJ 220232
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1032 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS IN THE EVENING
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PR EACH DAY.

THERE IS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
THE GENERAL ENVIRONMENT IN THE CARIBBEAN IS QUITE HOSTILE FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY. A CHANCE OF A GOOD INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED AS THE WAVE/REMNANT
LOW PASSES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH ONLY VCSH
ACROSS TIST AND TISX AND TJSJ. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT
15 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 10K FEET. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN PR AFTER 22/17Z WHICH MAY AFFECT
TJMZ AND TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND
WINDS 19 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...CAUSING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES
ACROSS TE AREA. SAHARAN DUST TO CONTINUE TODAY...THEN DIMINISH ON
TUESDAY BUT THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...BRINGING MOISTURE AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO THE AREA.

DISCUSSION...FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL WITH SOME SAHARAN DUST MIXED IN
THE REST OF TODAY AND THEN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS
A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CURRENTLY GIVES IT A
70 PERCENT CHANCE OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...THE GENERAL ENVIRONMENT IN THE
CARIBBEAN IS QUITE HOSTILE FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO SURVIVE WITH
THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY AIR AND UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR...BUT
AT LEAST THERE IS A CHANCE OF A GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE WAVE PASSES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TJMZ IN THE AFTERNOON AS SHRA/TSRA AFFECTS
THE SURROUNDING AREA POSSIBLY CAUSING TEMPO MVFR CONDS. WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND 15KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UNTIL 21/23Z. THEREAFTER WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO ABOUT 10 KTS OR LESS WITH PASSING ISOLD LIGHT SHRA OVER THE
AREA. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN PR
AFTER 22/17Z WHICH MAY AFFECT TJMZ AND TJBQ.

MARINE...LATEST DATA FROM SURROUNDING BUOYS AND LOCAL
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...WITH SEAS OF BETWEEN 3-5
FEET. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION
MAINLY DUE TO WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS OR SO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  89  79  91 /  20  10  20  20
STT  80  88  80  92 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 220232
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1032 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS IN THE EVENING
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PR EACH DAY.

THERE IS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
THE GENERAL ENVIRONMENT IN THE CARIBBEAN IS QUITE HOSTILE FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY. A CHANCE OF A GOOD INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED AS THE WAVE/REMNANT
LOW PASSES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH ONLY VCSH
ACROSS TIST AND TISX AND TJSJ. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT
15 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 10K FEET. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN PR AFTER 22/17Z WHICH MAY AFFECT
TJMZ AND TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND
WINDS 19 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...CAUSING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES
ACROSS TE AREA. SAHARAN DUST TO CONTINUE TODAY...THEN DIMINISH ON
TUESDAY BUT THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...BRINGING MOISTURE AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO THE AREA.

DISCUSSION...FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL WITH SOME SAHARAN DUST MIXED IN
THE REST OF TODAY AND THEN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS
A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CURRENTLY GIVES IT A
70 PERCENT CHANCE OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...THE GENERAL ENVIRONMENT IN THE
CARIBBEAN IS QUITE HOSTILE FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO SURVIVE WITH
THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY AIR AND UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR...BUT
AT LEAST THERE IS A CHANCE OF A GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE WAVE PASSES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TJMZ IN THE AFTERNOON AS SHRA/TSRA AFFECTS
THE SURROUNDING AREA POSSIBLY CAUSING TEMPO MVFR CONDS. WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND 15KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UNTIL 21/23Z. THEREAFTER WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO ABOUT 10 KTS OR LESS WITH PASSING ISOLD LIGHT SHRA OVER THE
AREA. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN PR
AFTER 22/17Z WHICH MAY AFFECT TJMZ AND TJBQ.

MARINE...LATEST DATA FROM SURROUNDING BUOYS AND LOCAL
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...WITH SEAS OF BETWEEN 3-5
FEET. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION
MAINLY DUE TO WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS OR SO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  89  79  91 /  20  10  20  20
STT  80  88  80  92 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/23







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 211910 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...CAUSING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES
ACROSS TE AREA. SAHARAN DUST TO CONTINUE TODAY...THEN DIMINISH ON
TUESDAY BUT THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...BRINGING MOISTURE AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL WITH SOME SAHARAN DUST MIXED IN
THE REST OF TODAY AND THEN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS
A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CURRENTLY GIVES IT A
70 PERCENT CHANCE OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...THE GENERAL ENVIRONMENT IN THE
CARIBBEAN IS QUITE HOSTILE FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO SURVIVE WITH
THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY AIR AND UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR...BUT
AT LEAST THERE IS A CHANCE OF A GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE WAVE PASSES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TJMZ IN THE AFTERNOON AS SHRA/TSRA AFFECTS
THE SURROUNDING AREA POSSIBLY CAUSING TEMPO MVFR CONDS. WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND 15KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UNTIL 21/23Z. THEREAFTER WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO ABOUT 10 KTS OR LESS WITH PASSING ISOLD LIGHT SHRA OVER THE
AREA. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN PR
AFTER 22/17Z WHICH MAY AFFECT TJMZ AND TJBQ.


&&

.MARINE...LATEST DATA FROM SURROUNDING BUOYS AND LOCAL
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...WITH SEAS OF BETWEEN 3-5
FEET. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION
MAINLY DUE TO WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS OR SO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  90  79 /  10  10  10  20
STT  90  79  90  80 /  20  10  10  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 211910 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...CAUSING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES
ACROSS TE AREA. SAHARAN DUST TO CONTINUE TODAY...THEN DIMINISH ON
TUESDAY BUT THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...BRINGING MOISTURE AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL WITH SOME SAHARAN DUST MIXED IN
THE REST OF TODAY AND THEN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS
A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CURRENTLY GIVES IT A
70 PERCENT CHANCE OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...THE GENERAL ENVIRONMENT IN THE
CARIBBEAN IS QUITE HOSTILE FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO SURVIVE WITH
THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY AIR AND UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR...BUT
AT LEAST THERE IS A CHANCE OF A GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE WAVE PASSES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TJMZ IN THE AFTERNOON AS SHRA/TSRA AFFECTS
THE SURROUNDING AREA POSSIBLY CAUSING TEMPO MVFR CONDS. WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND 15KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UNTIL 21/23Z. THEREAFTER WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO ABOUT 10 KTS OR LESS WITH PASSING ISOLD LIGHT SHRA OVER THE
AREA. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN PR
AFTER 22/17Z WHICH MAY AFFECT TJMZ AND TJBQ.


&&

.MARINE...LATEST DATA FROM SURROUNDING BUOYS AND LOCAL
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...WITH SEAS OF BETWEEN 3-5
FEET. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION
MAINLY DUE TO WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS OR SO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  90  79 /  10  10  10  20
STT  90  79  90  80 /  20  10  10  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 211906
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...CAUSING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES
ACROSS TE AREA. SAHARAN DUST TO CONTINUE TODAY...THEN DIMINISH ON
TUESDAY BUT THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...BRINGING MOISTURE AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL WITH SOME SAHARAN DUST MIXED IN
THE REST OF TODAY AND THEN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS
A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CURRENTLY GIVES IT A
70 PERCENT CHANCE OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...THE GENERAL ENVIRONMENT IN THE
CARIBBEAN IS QUITE HOSTILE FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO SURVIVE...BUT
AT LEAST THERE IS A CHANCE OF A GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE WAVE PASSES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TJMZ IN THE AFTERNOON AS SHRA/TSRA AFFECTS
THE SURROUNDING AREA POSSIBLY CAUSING TEMPO MVFR CONDS. WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND 15KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UNTIL 21/23Z. THEREAFTER WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO ABOUT 10 KTS OR LESS WITH PASSING ISOLD LIGHT SHRA OVER THE
AREA. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN PR
AFTER 22/17Z WHICH MAY AFFECT TJMZ AND TJBQ.


&&

.MARINE...LATEST DATA FROM SURROUNDING BUOYS AND LOCAL
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...WITH SEAS OF BETWEEN 3-5
FEET. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION
MAINLY DUE TO WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS OR SO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  90  79 /  10  10  10  20
STT  90  79  90  80 /  20  10  10  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 211906
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...CAUSING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES
ACROSS TE AREA. SAHARAN DUST TO CONTINUE TODAY...THEN DIMINISH ON
TUESDAY BUT THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...BRINGING MOISTURE AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL WITH SOME SAHARAN DUST MIXED IN
THE REST OF TODAY AND THEN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS
A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CURRENTLY GIVES IT A
70 PERCENT CHANCE OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...THE GENERAL ENVIRONMENT IN THE
CARIBBEAN IS QUITE HOSTILE FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO SURVIVE...BUT
AT LEAST THERE IS A CHANCE OF A GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE WAVE PASSES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TJMZ IN THE AFTERNOON AS SHRA/TSRA AFFECTS
THE SURROUNDING AREA POSSIBLY CAUSING TEMPO MVFR CONDS. WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND 15KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UNTIL 21/23Z. THEREAFTER WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO ABOUT 10 KTS OR LESS WITH PASSING ISOLD LIGHT SHRA OVER THE
AREA. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN PR
AFTER 22/17Z WHICH MAY AFFECT TJMZ AND TJBQ.


&&

.MARINE...LATEST DATA FROM SURROUNDING BUOYS AND LOCAL
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...WITH SEAS OF BETWEEN 3-5
FEET. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION
MAINLY DUE TO WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS OR SO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  90  79 /  10  10  10  20
STT  90  79  90  80 /  20  10  10  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25







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