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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300059
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
859 PM AST TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTED THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...FROM VEGA BAJA
WEST TO MOCA. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRED OVER THE
MUNICIPALITIES OF CAMUY...QUEBRADILLAS AND LARES. A STREAM LINE
THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE ISLAND OF ST CROIX AND OVER
VIEQUES...AFFECTED THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. VARIOUS
URBAN AND FLOOD ADVISORY WERE ISSUED FOR THIS AREAS.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT. SOME PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER TIST AND TISX.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM AST TUE JUL 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL LINGER NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. A VERY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 1750 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEXT 24 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. THE FOCUS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WAS OVER FAJARDO AND CEIBA IN THE EAST...MANATI...VEGA
BAJA AND MOROVIS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO...AND OVER THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. U.S.G.S RIVER SENSORS INDICATED
UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED OVER RIO FAJARDO...AND
OVER RIO GUAJATACA. A COOP OBSERVER REPORTED ALSO OVER 2 INCHES AT
PALMAREJO SECTOR IN VEGA BAJA. THIS ACTIVITY WAS PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
DAYTIME HEATING.

DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL COMBINE WIT DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

A VERY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 1750
MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WELL
ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHILE
IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING THIS SYSTEM FOR POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. AT THE CURRENT OF MOVEMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
NEAR THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND. RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS TO PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT. SOME PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER TIST AND TISX.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  89  77  89 /  30  30  20  20
STT  78  89  78  88 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/10






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300059
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
859 PM AST TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTED THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...FROM VEGA BAJA
WEST TO MOCA. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRED OVER THE
MUNICIPALITIES OF CAMUY...QUEBRADILLAS AND LARES. A STREAM LINE
THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE ISLAND OF ST CROIX AND OVER
VIEQUES...AFFECTED THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. VARIOUS
URBAN AND FLOOD ADVISORY WERE ISSUED FOR THIS AREAS.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT. SOME PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER TIST AND TISX.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM AST TUE JUL 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL LINGER NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. A VERY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 1750 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEXT 24 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. THE FOCUS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WAS OVER FAJARDO AND CEIBA IN THE EAST...MANATI...VEGA
BAJA AND MOROVIS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO...AND OVER THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. U.S.G.S RIVER SENSORS INDICATED
UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED OVER RIO FAJARDO...AND
OVER RIO GUAJATACA. A COOP OBSERVER REPORTED ALSO OVER 2 INCHES AT
PALMAREJO SECTOR IN VEGA BAJA. THIS ACTIVITY WAS PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
DAYTIME HEATING.

DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL COMBINE WIT DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

A VERY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 1750
MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WELL
ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHILE
IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING THIS SYSTEM FOR POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. AT THE CURRENT OF MOVEMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
NEAR THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND. RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS TO PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT. SOME PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER TIST AND TISX.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  89  77  89 /  30  30  20  20
STT  78  89  78  88 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/10







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291945
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
345 PM AST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL LINGER NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. A VERY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 1750 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. THE FOCUS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WAS OVER FAJARDO AND CEIBA IN THE EAST...MANATI...VEGA
BAJA AND MOROVIS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO...AND OVER THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. U.S.G.S RIVER SENSORS INDICATED
UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED OVER RIO FAJARDO...AND
OVER RIO GUAJATACA. A COOP OBSERVER REPORTED ALSO OVER 2 INCHES AT
PALMAREJO SECTOR IN VEGA BAJA. THIS ACTIVITY WAS PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
DAYTIME HEATING.

DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL COMBINE WIT DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

A VERY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 1750
MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WELL
ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHILE
IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING THIS SYSTEM FOR POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. AT THE CURRENT OF MOVEMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
NEAR THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND. RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS TO PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT. SOME PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER TIST AND TISX.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  89  77  89 /  20  20  20  20
STT  78  89  78  88 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

08/71


















000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291506
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1106 AM AST TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO DURING THE MORNING HOURS. 12Z SJU SOUNDING INDICATED
HIGHER PW VALUES THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THIS COULD BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THE PROXIMITY OF A TUTT LOW TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
OTHER LOCAL EFFECT...COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WIND FLOW ALOFT
COULD RESULT IN VERY SLOW MOTION OF ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS...WHICH IN TURN...COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN
SOME AREAS. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE ADDRESSES THIS QUITE
WELL...THEREFORE NO CHANGES WILL MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...OBSCD MTN AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN
29/16-21Z DUE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTION OF PR AFFECTING TJBQ AND TJMZ WITH VCTS
POSSIBLE AT JSJ. E-SE WINDS 5-15 KTS BELOW 5 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS AT OR BELOW 4
FEET FOR THE MOST PART. WINDS COULD VARIABLE ALONG THE COAST AS
LOCAL SEA BREEZES DEVELOP.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM AST TUE JUL 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH AND INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA. TUTT LOW NORTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY BUT
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...SOME OF THEM BRIEFLY OVER THE USVI AND
EASTERN PR LEFT MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHILE OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING HOURS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...A TROPICAL WAVE ROUGHLY
AROUND 10 NORTH AND 37 WEST...OR AROUND 1000 MILES TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...HAS A 70 PERCENT OF DEVELOPING IN TO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A 70 PERCENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. AT THIS TIME IT IS STILL A BIT EARLY TO PRECISE JUST HOW
MUCH OR EVEN IF THIS WAVE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AS A WAVE OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE...IF AT ALL. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
AT THE TIME AND THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE SOLUTION OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS. GFS MODEL DEVELOPS IT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
TRACKS IT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DEVELOPS IT INTO A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE BUT TRACKS
IT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS...AND CLOSER TO THE OUR LOCAL AREA.
WE ARE OBSERVING THE TROPICAL WAVE CLOSELY AND ITS EVOLUTION...BUT
IT IS QUITE EARLY TO PRECISE HOW OR EVEN IF THIS WILL AFFECT THE
LOCAL AREA.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD WITH VCSH AT JSJ/IST/ISX AND NCM IN THE MORNING HOURS.
BETWEEN 29/16-21Z OBSCD MTN AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED DUE
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTION OF PR AFFECTING TJBQ AND TJMZ WITH VCTS POSSIBLE AT JSJ.
E-SE WINDS 5-15 KTS BELOW 5 KFT.

MARINE...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  77  89  77 /  30  20  20  20
STT  88  78  89  78 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

08/71







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291506
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1106 AM AST TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO DURING THE MORNING HOURS. 12Z SJU SOUNDING INDICATED
HIGHER PW VALUES THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THIS COULD BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THE PROXIMITY OF A TUTT LOW TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
OTHER LOCAL EFFECT...COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WIND FLOW ALOFT
COULD RESULT IN VERY SLOW MOTION OF ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS...WHICH IN TURN...COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN
SOME AREAS. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE ADDRESSES THIS QUITE
WELL...THEREFORE NO CHANGES WILL MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...OBSCD MTN AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN
29/16-21Z DUE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTION OF PR AFFECTING TJBQ AND TJMZ WITH VCTS
POSSIBLE AT JSJ. E-SE WINDS 5-15 KTS BELOW 5 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS AT OR BELOW 4
FEET FOR THE MOST PART. WINDS COULD VARIABLE ALONG THE COAST AS
LOCAL SEA BREEZES DEVELOP.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM AST TUE JUL 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH AND INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA. TUTT LOW NORTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY BUT
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...SOME OF THEM BRIEFLY OVER THE USVI AND
EASTERN PR LEFT MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHILE OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING HOURS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...A TROPICAL WAVE ROUGHLY
AROUND 10 NORTH AND 37 WEST...OR AROUND 1000 MILES TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...HAS A 70 PERCENT OF DEVELOPING IN TO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A 70 PERCENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. AT THIS TIME IT IS STILL A BIT EARLY TO PRECISE JUST HOW
MUCH OR EVEN IF THIS WAVE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AS A WAVE OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE...IF AT ALL. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
AT THE TIME AND THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE SOLUTION OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS. GFS MODEL DEVELOPS IT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
TRACKS IT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DEVELOPS IT INTO A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE BUT TRACKS
IT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS...AND CLOSER TO THE OUR LOCAL AREA.
WE ARE OBSERVING THE TROPICAL WAVE CLOSELY AND ITS EVOLUTION...BUT
IT IS QUITE EARLY TO PRECISE HOW OR EVEN IF THIS WILL AFFECT THE
LOCAL AREA.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD WITH VCSH AT JSJ/IST/ISX AND NCM IN THE MORNING HOURS.
BETWEEN 29/16-21Z OBSCD MTN AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED DUE
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTION OF PR AFFECTING TJBQ AND TJMZ WITH VCTS POSSIBLE AT JSJ.
E-SE WINDS 5-15 KTS BELOW 5 KFT.

MARINE...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  77  89  77 /  30  20  20  20
STT  88  78  89  78 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

08/71






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291018
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
618 AM AST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH AND INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA. TUTT LOW NORTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY BUT
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...SOME OF THEM BRIEFLY OVER THE USVI AND
EASTERN PR LEFT MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHILE OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING HOURS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...A TROPICAL WAVE ROUGHLY
AROUND 10 NORTH AND 37 WEST...OR AROUND 1000 MILES TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...HAS A 70 PERCENT OF DEVELOPING IN TO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A 70 PERCENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. AT THIS TIME IT IS STILL A BIT EARLY TO PRECISE JUST HOW
MUCH OR EVEN IF THIS WAVE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AS A WAVE OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE...IF AT ALL. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
AT THE TIME AND THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE SOLUTION OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS. GFS MODEL DEVELOPS IT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
TRACKS IT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DEVELOPS IT INTO A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE BUT TRACKS
IT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS...AND CLOSER TO THE OUR LOCAL AREA.
WE ARE OBSERVING THE TROPICAL WAVE CLOSELY AND ITS EVOLUTION...BUT
IT IS QUITE EARLY TO PRECISE HOW OR EVEN IF THIS WILL AFFECT THE
LOCAL AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD WITH VCSH AT JSJ/IST/ISX AND NCM IN THE MORNING HOURS.
BETWEEN 29/16-21Z OBSCD MTN AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED DUE
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTION OF PR AFFECTING TJBQ AND TJMZ WITH VCTS POSSIBLE AT JSJ.
E-SE WINDS 5-15 KTS BELOW 5 KFT.


&&

.MARINE...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  77  89  77 /  30  20  20  20
STT  88  78  89  78 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291018
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
618 AM AST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH AND INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA. TUTT LOW NORTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY BUT
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...SOME OF THEM BRIEFLY OVER THE USVI AND
EASTERN PR LEFT MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHILE OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING HOURS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...A TROPICAL WAVE ROUGHLY
AROUND 10 NORTH AND 37 WEST...OR AROUND 1000 MILES TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...HAS A 70 PERCENT OF DEVELOPING IN TO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A 70 PERCENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. AT THIS TIME IT IS STILL A BIT EARLY TO PRECISE JUST HOW
MUCH OR EVEN IF THIS WAVE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AS A WAVE OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE...IF AT ALL. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
AT THE TIME AND THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE SOLUTION OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS. GFS MODEL DEVELOPS IT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
TRACKS IT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DEVELOPS IT INTO A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE BUT TRACKS
IT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS...AND CLOSER TO THE OUR LOCAL AREA.
WE ARE OBSERVING THE TROPICAL WAVE CLOSELY AND ITS EVOLUTION...BUT
IT IS QUITE EARLY TO PRECISE HOW OR EVEN IF THIS WILL AFFECT THE
LOCAL AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD WITH VCSH AT JSJ/IST/ISX AND NCM IN THE MORNING HOURS.
BETWEEN 29/16-21Z OBSCD MTN AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED DUE
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTION OF PR AFFECTING TJBQ AND TJMZ WITH VCTS POSSIBLE AT JSJ.
E-SE WINDS 5-15 KTS BELOW 5 KFT.


&&

.MARINE...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  77  89  77 /  30  20  20  20
STT  88  78  89  78 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290249
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1049 PM AST MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...A TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE REGION WILL INDUCE A WEAK LOW LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ONLY PATCHES OF SHALLOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE. THEREFORE...EXPECT ONLY OCCASIONAL
PASSING CLOUDS AND A FEW TUTT ENHANCED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETREAT FURTHER NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WHILE RELAXING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS IN TURN
WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY LIGHT EAST SOUTH EAST TRADE WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. LATEST TJSJ 29/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED PWAT VALUES STILL
AROUND 1.70 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. NO MAJOR
CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

LATEST UPDATE ON THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AS PER NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...A THIS FEATURE MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD
OR WEST NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE
AT 8 PM AST NOW SUGGEST A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT FOR FORMATION
THROUGH 48 HOURS. STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONS UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BETWEEN 29/16-21Z BRIEF MTN TOP
OBSCR AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED DUE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTION OF PR AFFECTING
MAINLY TJBQ AND TJMZ. E-SE WINDS 5-15 KTS BELOW 5 KFT.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION.
LATEST OBS FROM SURROUNDING BUOYS AS WELL AS MODEL GUIDANCE...SUGGEST
FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM AST MON JUL 28 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
REMAIN DOMINATING THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND LOWER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH. TUTT TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS THE TROPICAL
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND A UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE
AREA. THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS
THE REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SAME TROUGH WILL PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 10 NORTH LATITUDE AND 33 WEST LONGITUDE. PER
LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE
IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO PRECISE JUST HOW MUCH OR EVEN IF THIS WAVE WILL
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AS A WAVE OR TROPICAL CYCLONE...IF AT ALL.
THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME AND THERE IS GREAT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS. WE ARE OBSERVING THE TROPICAL
WAVE CLOSELY AND ITS EVOLUTION...BUT IT IS JUST TOO EARLY YET TO
PRECISE HOW OR EVEN IF THIS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA. STAY TUNED
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

AVIATION...VCTS NEAR TJPS AND TJMZ THROUGH AT LEAST 28/22Z.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.

MARINE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...CENTERED
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETREAT
NORTH. AS A RESULT RESULT...SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  88  77  89 /  20  30  20  20
STT  78  89  78  88 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/09






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290249
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1049 PM AST MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...A TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE REGION WILL INDUCE A WEAK LOW LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ONLY PATCHES OF SHALLOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE. THEREFORE...EXPECT ONLY OCCASIONAL
PASSING CLOUDS AND A FEW TUTT ENHANCED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETREAT FURTHER NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WHILE RELAXING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS IN TURN
WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY LIGHT EAST SOUTH EAST TRADE WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. LATEST TJSJ 29/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED PWAT VALUES STILL
AROUND 1.70 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. NO MAJOR
CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

LATEST UPDATE ON THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AS PER NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...A THIS FEATURE MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD
OR WEST NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE
AT 8 PM AST NOW SUGGEST A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT FOR FORMATION
THROUGH 48 HOURS. STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONS UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BETWEEN 29/16-21Z BRIEF MTN TOP
OBSCR AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED DUE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTION OF PR AFFECTING
MAINLY TJBQ AND TJMZ. E-SE WINDS 5-15 KTS BELOW 5 KFT.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION.
LATEST OBS FROM SURROUNDING BUOYS AS WELL AS MODEL GUIDANCE...SUGGEST
FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM AST MON JUL 28 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
REMAIN DOMINATING THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND LOWER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH. TUTT TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS THE TROPICAL
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND A UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE
AREA. THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS
THE REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SAME TROUGH WILL PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 10 NORTH LATITUDE AND 33 WEST LONGITUDE. PER
LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE
IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO PRECISE JUST HOW MUCH OR EVEN IF THIS WAVE WILL
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AS A WAVE OR TROPICAL CYCLONE...IF AT ALL.
THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME AND THERE IS GREAT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS. WE ARE OBSERVING THE TROPICAL
WAVE CLOSELY AND ITS EVOLUTION...BUT IT IS JUST TOO EARLY YET TO
PRECISE HOW OR EVEN IF THIS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA. STAY TUNED
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

AVIATION...VCTS NEAR TJPS AND TJMZ THROUGH AT LEAST 28/22Z.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.

MARINE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...CENTERED
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETREAT
NORTH. AS A RESULT RESULT...SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  88  77  89 /  20  30  20  20
STT  78  89  78  88 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/09







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 281852
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
REMAIN DOMINATING THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND LOWER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH. TUTT TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS THE TROPICAL
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND A UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE
AREA. THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS
THE REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SAME TROUGH WILL PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 10 NORTH LATITUDE AND 33 WEST LONGITUDE. PER
LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE
IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO PRECISE JUST HOW MUCH OR EVEN IF THIS WAVE WILL
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AS A WAVE OR TROPICAL CYCLONE...IF AT ALL.
THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME AND THERE IS GREAT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS. WE ARE OBSERVING THE TROPICAL
WAVE CLOSELY AND ITS EVOLUTION...BUT IT IS JUST TOO EARLY YET TO
PRECISE HOW OR EVEN IF THIS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA. STAY TUNED
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VCTS NEAR TJPS AND TJMZ THROUGH AT LEAST 28/22Z.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...CENTERED
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETREAT
NORTH. AS A RESULT RESULT...SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  88  77  89 /  20  30  20  20
STT  78  89  78  88 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

10/71













000
FXCA62 TJSJ 281852
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
REMAIN DOMINATING THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND LOWER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH. TUTT TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS THE TROPICAL
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND A UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE
AREA. THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS
THE REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SAME TROUGH WILL PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 10 NORTH LATITUDE AND 33 WEST LONGITUDE. PER
LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE
IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO PRECISE JUST HOW MUCH OR EVEN IF THIS WAVE WILL
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AS A WAVE OR TROPICAL CYCLONE...IF AT ALL.
THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME AND THERE IS GREAT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS. WE ARE OBSERVING THE TROPICAL
WAVE CLOSELY AND ITS EVOLUTION...BUT IT IS JUST TOO EARLY YET TO
PRECISE HOW OR EVEN IF THIS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA. STAY TUNED
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VCTS NEAR TJPS AND TJMZ THROUGH AT LEAST 28/22Z.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...CENTERED
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETREAT
NORTH. AS A RESULT RESULT...SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  88  77  89 /  20  30  20  20
STT  78  89  78  88 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

10/71














000
FXCA62 TJSJ 281700
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
100 PM AST MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...A STREAMER DEVELOPED OVER THE ISLANDS OF ST THOMAS AND
ST JOHN AND IT HAS EXTENDED WEST THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. AT THE SAME TIME CLOUDINESS HAVE STARTED ALREADY
ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. AT THIS MOMENT MOST OF THE CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WHERE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE IS HANDLING WELL THE ACTUAL
WEATHER THEREFORE ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...28/18Z...OBSCD MTN AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
DUE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND SW-PR
AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ. EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...CENTERED
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETREAT
NORTH. AS A RESULT SURFACE WINDS WILL SLACKEN WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
TO WELL BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH THE WEEK.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM AST MON JUL 28 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
REMAIN DOMINATING THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND LOWER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH. TUTT TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SAHARAN DUST WILL BE PRESENT TODAY...IMPROVING ON TUESDAY.

DISCUSSION...VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE LIMITED AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS AND THE TUTT...MAY CAUSE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
PR IN THE AFTERNOON. THE REST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI SHOULD
REMAIN WITH FAIR WEATHER AND WARM WITH HAZY SKIES DUE TO THE
SAHARAN DUST THAT IS PRESENT. ACCORDING TO THE NAAPS AEROSOL
MODEL...THE SAHARAN DUST WILL EXIT OUR AREA THIS EVENING...GIVING
US A BREAK FROM THE DUST TOMORROW TUESDAY.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF PR...WHILE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST
OF THE LOCAL AREA...INCLUDING THE USVI.

ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...A TROPICAL WAVE ROUGHLY
AROUND 10 NORTH AND 31 WEST...OR AROUND 550 MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...HAS A 30 PERCENT OF DEVELOPING IN TO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A 70 PERCENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PRECISE JUST HOW MUCH OR EVEN IF
THIS WAVE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AS A WAVE OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE...IF AT ALL. THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THE
TIME AND THERE IS GREAT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS. GFS
MODEL DEVELOPS IT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND TRACKS IT TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL DOES NOT DO
ANYTHING WITH IT. WE ARE OBSERVING THE TROPICAL WAVE CLOSELY AND
ITS EVOLUTION...BUT IT IS JUST TOO EARLY YET TO PRECISE HOW OR
EVEN IF THIS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER AFTER 28/18Z...OBSCD MTN AND BRIEF MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED DUE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND SW-PR AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ. EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 15
KTS.

MARINE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE...CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH. AS A RESULT SURFACE WINDS WILL SLACKEN WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO WELL BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  76  88  77 /  20  20  30  20
STT  89  78  89  78 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

10/71







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 281700
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
100 PM AST MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...A STREAMER DEVELOPED OVER THE ISLANDS OF ST THOMAS AND
ST JOHN AND IT HAS EXTENDED WEST THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. AT THE SAME TIME CLOUDINESS HAVE STARTED ALREADY
ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. AT THIS MOMENT MOST OF THE CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WHERE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE IS HANDLING WELL THE ACTUAL
WEATHER THEREFORE ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...28/18Z...OBSCD MTN AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
DUE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND SW-PR
AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ. EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...CENTERED
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETREAT
NORTH. AS A RESULT SURFACE WINDS WILL SLACKEN WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
TO WELL BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH THE WEEK.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM AST MON JUL 28 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
REMAIN DOMINATING THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND LOWER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH. TUTT TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SAHARAN DUST WILL BE PRESENT TODAY...IMPROVING ON TUESDAY.

DISCUSSION...VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE LIMITED AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS AND THE TUTT...MAY CAUSE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
PR IN THE AFTERNOON. THE REST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI SHOULD
REMAIN WITH FAIR WEATHER AND WARM WITH HAZY SKIES DUE TO THE
SAHARAN DUST THAT IS PRESENT. ACCORDING TO THE NAAPS AEROSOL
MODEL...THE SAHARAN DUST WILL EXIT OUR AREA THIS EVENING...GIVING
US A BREAK FROM THE DUST TOMORROW TUESDAY.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF PR...WHILE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST
OF THE LOCAL AREA...INCLUDING THE USVI.

ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...A TROPICAL WAVE ROUGHLY
AROUND 10 NORTH AND 31 WEST...OR AROUND 550 MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...HAS A 30 PERCENT OF DEVELOPING IN TO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A 70 PERCENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PRECISE JUST HOW MUCH OR EVEN IF
THIS WAVE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AS A WAVE OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE...IF AT ALL. THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THE
TIME AND THERE IS GREAT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS. GFS
MODEL DEVELOPS IT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND TRACKS IT TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL DOES NOT DO
ANYTHING WITH IT. WE ARE OBSERVING THE TROPICAL WAVE CLOSELY AND
ITS EVOLUTION...BUT IT IS JUST TOO EARLY YET TO PRECISE HOW OR
EVEN IF THIS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER AFTER 28/18Z...OBSCD MTN AND BRIEF MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED DUE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND SW-PR AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ. EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 15
KTS.

MARINE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE...CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH. AS A RESULT SURFACE WINDS WILL SLACKEN WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO WELL BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  76  88  77 /  20  20  30  20
STT  89  78  89  78 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

10/71






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 280943
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
REMAIN DOMINATING THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND LOWER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH. TUTT TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SAHARAN DUST WILL BE PRESENT TODAY...IMPROVING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE LIMITED AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS AND THE TUTT...MAY CAUSE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
PR IN THE AFTERNOON. THE REST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI SHOULD
REMAIN WITH FAIR WEATHER AND WARM WITH HAZY SKIES DUE TO THE
SAHARAN DUST THAT IS PRESENT. ACCORDING TO THE NAAPS AEROSOL
MODEL...THE SAHARAN DUST WILL EXIT OUR AREA THIS EVENING...GIVING
US A BREAK FROM THE DUST TOMORROW TUESDAY.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF PR...WHILE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST
OF THE LOCAL AREA...INCLUDING THE USVI.

ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...A TROPICAL WAVE ROUGHLY
AROUND 10 NORTH AND 31 WEST...OR AROUND 550 MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...HAS A 30 PERCENT OF DEVELOPING IN TO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A 70 PERCENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PRECISE JUST HOW MUCH OR EVEN IF
THIS WAVE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AS A WAVE OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE...IF AT ALL. THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THE
TIME AND THERE IS GREAT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS. GFS
MODEL DEVELOPS IT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND TRACKS IT TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL DOES NOT DO
ANYTHING WITH IT. WE ARE OBSERVING THE TROPICAL WAVE CLOSELY AND
ITS EVOLUTION...BUT IT IS JUST TOO EARLY YET TO PRECISE HOW OR
EVEN IF THIS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER AFTER 28/18Z...OBSCD MTN AND BRIEF MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED DUE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND SW-PR AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ. EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 15
KTS.


&&

.MARINE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE...CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH. AS A RESULT SURFACE WINDS WILL SLACKEN WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO WELL BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  76  88  77 /  20  20  30  20
STT  89  78  89  78 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25









000
FXCA62 TJSJ 280943
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
REMAIN DOMINATING THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND LOWER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH. TUTT TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SAHARAN DUST WILL BE PRESENT TODAY...IMPROVING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE LIMITED AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS AND THE TUTT...MAY CAUSE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
PR IN THE AFTERNOON. THE REST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI SHOULD
REMAIN WITH FAIR WEATHER AND WARM WITH HAZY SKIES DUE TO THE
SAHARAN DUST THAT IS PRESENT. ACCORDING TO THE NAAPS AEROSOL
MODEL...THE SAHARAN DUST WILL EXIT OUR AREA THIS EVENING...GIVING
US A BREAK FROM THE DUST TOMORROW TUESDAY.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF PR...WHILE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST
OF THE LOCAL AREA...INCLUDING THE USVI.

ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...A TROPICAL WAVE ROUGHLY
AROUND 10 NORTH AND 31 WEST...OR AROUND 550 MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...HAS A 30 PERCENT OF DEVELOPING IN TO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A 70 PERCENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PRECISE JUST HOW MUCH OR EVEN IF
THIS WAVE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AS A WAVE OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE...IF AT ALL. THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THE
TIME AND THERE IS GREAT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS. GFS
MODEL DEVELOPS IT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND TRACKS IT TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL DOES NOT DO
ANYTHING WITH IT. WE ARE OBSERVING THE TROPICAL WAVE CLOSELY AND
ITS EVOLUTION...BUT IT IS JUST TOO EARLY YET TO PRECISE HOW OR
EVEN IF THIS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER AFTER 28/18Z...OBSCD MTN AND BRIEF MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED DUE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND SW-PR AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ. EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 15
KTS.


&&

.MARINE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE...CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH. AS A RESULT SURFACE WINDS WILL SLACKEN WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO WELL BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  76  88  77 /  20  20  30  20
STT  89  78  89  78 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 280200
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1000 PM AST SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...THE PROXIMITY OF A TUTT LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA RESULTED IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT (-10.7 AT 500 MB). THIS...IN TURN...CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR PUERTO RICO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HAIL REPORTED IN JAYUYA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW COULD ADVECT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT LEADING TO
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS ON
TRACK...SO NO CHANGES WILL BE DONE AT THIS TIME.

THE TUTT LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS COULD KEEP THE LOCAL AREA UNDER COLD AIR
ALOFT...LEADING TO THE FORMATION OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER
INTERIOR PUERTO RICO. ONE LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE CONVERGENCE
ALOFT AROUND THE BASE OF THIS LOW WHICH COULD RESULT IN ANY
CONVECTION BEING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN
TO MOVE NORTHWEST PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA UNDER A MORE FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER AFTER 28/18Z...OBSCD MTN AND BRIEF MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED DUE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR OF PR AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ. EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS UP
TO 10 KFT.


&&

.MARINE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE...CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH. AS A RESULT SURFACE WINDS WILL SLACKEN WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO WELL BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH THE WEEK.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM AST SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION BUT
QUICKLY DISSIPATED. THE DOPPLER RADAR IS STILL SHOWING A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THIS AREA..THEY ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND THEY WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL WATERS...SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE ON SHORE AND AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI.

RIDGE NORTH OF ISLANDS DOMINATE THE WEATHER AS DRY AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS. PRECIPITATELY WATER REMAINS BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED MOST OF THIS WEEK.

AVIATION...ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA WI MVFR UNLIKELY AT ANY TAF SITE
THRU MON. BUT FEW OBSCD MTNS DURING BOTH AFT OVER WESTERN INTERIOR
PR. LOW LEVEL WIND E 12-20 KT XCP NE FL100-FL200...WEAKENING TO 6-13
KT ON MON.

MARINE...AS WINDS CONTINUE TO RELAX ALSO THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  80  90  80  90 /  20  20  20  30
STT  80  90  80  90 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/08







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 280200
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1000 PM AST SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...THE PROXIMITY OF A TUTT LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA RESULTED IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT (-10.7 AT 500 MB). THIS...IN TURN...CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR PUERTO RICO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HAIL REPORTED IN JAYUYA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW COULD ADVECT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT LEADING TO
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS ON
TRACK...SO NO CHANGES WILL BE DONE AT THIS TIME.

THE TUTT LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS COULD KEEP THE LOCAL AREA UNDER COLD AIR
ALOFT...LEADING TO THE FORMATION OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER
INTERIOR PUERTO RICO. ONE LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE CONVERGENCE
ALOFT AROUND THE BASE OF THIS LOW WHICH COULD RESULT IN ANY
CONVECTION BEING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN
TO MOVE NORTHWEST PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA UNDER A MORE FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER AFTER 28/18Z...OBSCD MTN AND BRIEF MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED DUE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR OF PR AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ. EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS UP
TO 10 KFT.


&&

.MARINE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE...CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH. AS A RESULT SURFACE WINDS WILL SLACKEN WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO WELL BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH THE WEEK.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM AST SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION BUT
QUICKLY DISSIPATED. THE DOPPLER RADAR IS STILL SHOWING A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THIS AREA..THEY ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND THEY WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL WATERS...SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE ON SHORE AND AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI.

RIDGE NORTH OF ISLANDS DOMINATE THE WEATHER AS DRY AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS. PRECIPITATELY WATER REMAINS BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED MOST OF THIS WEEK.

AVIATION...ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA WI MVFR UNLIKELY AT ANY TAF SITE
THRU MON. BUT FEW OBSCD MTNS DURING BOTH AFT OVER WESTERN INTERIOR
PR. LOW LEVEL WIND E 12-20 KT XCP NE FL100-FL200...WEAKENING TO 6-13
KT ON MON.

MARINE...AS WINDS CONTINUE TO RELAX ALSO THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  80  90  80  90 /  20  20  20  30
STT  80  90  80  90 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/08






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 271850
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION BUT
QUICKLY DISSIPATED. THE DOPPLER RADAR IS STILL SHOWING A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THIS AREA..THEY ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND THEY WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL WATERS...SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE ON SHORE AND AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI.

RIDGE NORTH OF ISLANDS DOMINATE THE WEATHER AS DRY AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS. PRECIPITATELY WATER REMAINS BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED MOST OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA WI MVFR UNLIKELY AT ANY TAF SITE
THRU MON. BUT FEW OBSCD MTNS DURING BOTH AFT OVER WESTERN INTERIOR
PR. LOW LEVEL WIND E 12-20 KT XCP NE FL100-FL200...WEAKENING TO 6-13
KT ON MON.


&&

.MARINE...AS WINDS CONTINUE TO RELAX ALSO THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  80  90  80  90 /  20  20  20  30
STT  80  90  80  90 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

54/10






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 271850
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION BUT
QUICKLY DISSIPATED. THE DOPPLER RADAR IS STILL SHOWING A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THIS AREA..THEY ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND THEY WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL WATERS...SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE ON SHORE AND AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI.

RIDGE NORTH OF ISLANDS DOMINATE THE WEATHER AS DRY AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS. PRECIPITATELY WATER REMAINS BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED MOST OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA WI MVFR UNLIKELY AT ANY TAF SITE
THRU MON. BUT FEW OBSCD MTNS DURING BOTH AFT OVER WESTERN INTERIOR
PR. LOW LEVEL WIND E 12-20 KT XCP NE FL100-FL200...WEAKENING TO 6-13
KT ON MON.


&&

.MARINE...AS WINDS CONTINUE TO RELAX ALSO THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  80  90  80  90 /  20  20  20  30
STT  80  90  80  90 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

54/10







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 271437
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1037 AM AST SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RIDGE NORTH OF ISLANDS DOMINATE THE WEATHER AS DRY
AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
REMAINS BELOW SEASONAL NORMS AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED MOST
OF THIS WEEK. CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY EXCEPT A NUDGE SOUTHWARD WHICH THE CURRENT GRIDS ALREADY
INDICATE. RAWS SITES ARE CURRENTLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VS. YESTERDAY AND EXPECT THEM TO NOT APPROACH CRITICAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA WI MVFR UNLIKELY AT ANY TAF SITE
THRU MON. BUT FEW OBSCD MTNS DURING BOTH AFT OVER WESTERN INTERIOR
PR. LOW LEVEL WIND E 12-20 KT XCP NE FL100-FL200...WEAKENING TO
6-13 KT ON MON.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. TRADE WIND FLOW TO BE MODERATE
MOST OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS/SEAS BELOW 20 KT/6 FT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM AST SUN JUL 27 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...
BUT NONE OVER LAND AREAS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 80S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH A LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW.

TUTT PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH A CLOSED LOW MEANDERING NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH IT MAINTAINS A WELL DEFINED
CIRCULATION...SYSTEM IS NOT DEEP/STRONG ENOUGH TO PUT A DENT ON
TRADE WINDS CAP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...WEAKENING OF
TRADE WIND CAP IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL TUESDAY. IN TERMS OF PW...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
VALUES OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

THEREFORE UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE LATE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO TODAY
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK...WITHOUT A CAP AT MID LEVELS AND NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL PW VALUES...A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED EACH DAY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD. AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PR MAY
AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY. SFC WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTY WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS FROM
27/13Z TO AROUND 28/23Z.

MARINE...A MODERATE EAST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO SIX FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SHOULD RETREAT SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD BEGINNING MONDAY AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING AND WINDS SHIFTING
EAST SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  80  90  80 /  20  20  20  20
STT  90  80  90  80 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

54/10








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 270916
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...
BUT NONE OVER LAND AREAS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 80S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH A LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW.

TUTT PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH A CLOSED LOW MEANDERING NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH IT MAINTAINS A WELL DEFINED
CIRCULATION...SYSTEM IS NOT DEEP/STRONG ENOUGH TO PUT A DENT ON
TRADE WINDS CAP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...WEAKENING OF
TRADE WIND CAP IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL TUESDAY. IN TERMS OF PW...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
VALUES OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

THEREFORE UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE LATE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO TODAY
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK...WITHOUT A CAP AT MID LEVELS AND NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL PW VALUES...A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD. AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PR MAY
AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY. SFC WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTY WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS FROM
27/13Z TO AROUND 28/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE EAST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO SIX FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SHOULD RETREAT SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD BEGINNING MONDAY AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING AND WINDS SHIFTING
EAST SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  80  90  80 /  20  20  20  20
STT  90  80  90  80 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 270916
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...
BUT NONE OVER LAND AREAS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 80S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH A LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW.

TUTT PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH A CLOSED LOW MEANDERING NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH IT MAINTAINS A WELL DEFINED
CIRCULATION...SYSTEM IS NOT DEEP/STRONG ENOUGH TO PUT A DENT ON
TRADE WINDS CAP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...WEAKENING OF
TRADE WIND CAP IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL TUESDAY. IN TERMS OF PW...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
VALUES OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

THEREFORE UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE LATE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO TODAY
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK...WITHOUT A CAP AT MID LEVELS AND NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL PW VALUES...A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD. AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PR MAY
AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY. SFC WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTY WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS FROM
27/13Z TO AROUND 28/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE EAST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO SIX FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SHOULD RETREAT SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD BEGINNING MONDAY AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING AND WINDS SHIFTING
EAST SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  80  90  80 /  20  20  20  20
STT  90  80  90  80 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23







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