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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 040958
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
558 AM AST FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AN AMPLIFYING POLAR TROUGH
WILL EXIT THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES AND SPREAD
EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS IN TURN WILL ERODE THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE REGION.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TUTT LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE CAP INVERSION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
BETTER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND MIXING AS WELL AS BETTER SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE TODAY AND SATURDAY. AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION...ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL AID IN
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF PUERTO
RICO. SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY
MAINLY OVER THE PORTIONS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS INTENSE AS THE
PREVIOUS DAY...AS THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE MONA
PASSAGES BY MID DAY TODAY.

THE TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER WEST OF THE ISLANDS WHILE
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THIS FEATURE WEAKENS...MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
AND HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY...
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION OR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS SUGGESTED
AT THIS TIME. DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ANOTHER
ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION. THIS FEATURE
HOWEVER IS STILL SOME WAYS OUT...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AND SEE HOLD
IT UNFOLDS AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE ADJUSTS WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH 04/16Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
04/13Z...BECOMING EASTERLY WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS THEREAFTER.
+TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...AFTER 04/16Z WHICH WILL CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS AND LIKELY
AFFECT TJBQ AND TJMZ. VICINITY SHRA/TSRA ACROSS TJSJ AND TJBQ.
WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVING AFTER 04/23Z...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS ONCE AGAIN

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH
SEAS OF 3 FEET OR LESS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE NO MARINE PRECAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  92  79  91  79 /  20  30  30  30
STT  89  80  89  79 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

72/09





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 040958
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
558 AM AST FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AN AMPLIFYING POLAR TROUGH
WILL EXIT THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES AND SPREAD
EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS IN TURN WILL ERODE THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE REGION.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TUTT LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE CAP INVERSION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
BETTER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND MIXING AS WELL AS BETTER SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE TODAY AND SATURDAY. AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION...ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL AID IN
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF PUERTO
RICO. SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY
MAINLY OVER THE PORTIONS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS INTENSE AS THE
PREVIOUS DAY...AS THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE MONA
PASSAGES BY MID DAY TODAY.

THE TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER WEST OF THE ISLANDS WHILE
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THIS FEATURE WEAKENS...MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
AND HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY...
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION OR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS SUGGESTED
AT THIS TIME. DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ANOTHER
ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION. THIS FEATURE
HOWEVER IS STILL SOME WAYS OUT...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AND SEE HOLD
IT UNFOLDS AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE ADJUSTS WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH 04/16Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
04/13Z...BECOMING EASTERLY WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS THEREAFTER.
+TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...AFTER 04/16Z WHICH WILL CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS AND LIKELY
AFFECT TJBQ AND TJMZ. VICINITY SHRA/TSRA ACROSS TJSJ AND TJBQ.
WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVING AFTER 04/23Z...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS ONCE AGAIN

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH
SEAS OF 3 FEET OR LESS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE NO MARINE PRECAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  92  79  91  79 /  20  30  30  30
STT  89  80  89  79 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

72/09




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 040147
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
947 PM AST THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...LAST SHOWERS HAD DISSIPATED AROUND 7 PM AST...BUT ONE
PERSISTENT SHOWER GREW JUST AFTER THAT AND DID NOT DISSIPATE
UNTIL AROUND 9:10 PM AST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SOUNDING AT 04/00Z SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE
DURING LAST 24 HOURS...BUT LIFTED INDEX AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
WERE BOTH POINTING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER STABILITY. MODELS SHOW
INCREASING 500 MB TEMPERATURES AND HENCE A LESS EXPLOSIVE
ATMOSPHERE FOR TOMORROWS NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL HAVE DIMINISHED VERY LITTLE BY THEN FROM TODAY AND WOULD
EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE VERY HEAVY WHERE THEY DEVELOP. MIMIC PRODUCT
ALSO SHOWS MOISTURE CIRCLING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
AND ENTERING SOME NORTHEAST FLOW AT 700 MB THAT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AT MAX HEATING FRIDAY. SINCE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER FROM THE EAST TOMORROW THAN THEY
WERE TODAY...SHOWERS MAY MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER WEST. ALTHOUGH
STABILITY WILL HAVE INCREASED...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS STILL VERY CLOSE AND ONLY A LITTLE FILLING HAS OCCURRED...
THEREFORE HAVE UPPED POPS IN THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO AND
INCREASED THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE. MOST COASTAL
AREAS WILL STILL HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH 04/16Z ACROSS THE  LOCAL
TERMINALS. LIGHT AND VRB WINDS THROUGH 04/13Z...BECOMING EASTERLY
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS THEREAFTER. +TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR...AFTER 04/16Z
WHICH WILL CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS AND LIKELY AFFECT THE VICINITY OF
TJBQ/TJMZ/TJPS/TJSJ AND POSSIBLY THE STATIONS THEMSELVES. WX CONDS
IMPROVING AFTER 04/23Z...LEAVING VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 3 FEET OR LESS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO CAUTIONS OR ADVISORIES
FORESEEN NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM AST THU SEP 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER AND NORTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST. WEAK SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY...BECOMING MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS REPORTED. THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT
DIMINISHING NEAR SUNSET. TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER AND
NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE WEAKENING. AS
THIS FEATURE WEAKENS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN HOLD THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. WEAK SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY... BECOMING MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNDER THE PROXIMITY
OF TUTT AND SEA BREEZE REGIME...EXPECT GOOD AFTERNOON CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL THOUGHT AT LEAST
SUNDAY. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 46W WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. BUT LACKING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS IS TO
ONLY FAVOR LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS ACROSS ALL TAF SITE. MOUNTAIN OBSC
WITH TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...SOME OF OF
THIS SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER TJBQ/TJMZ/TJSJ AFT 03/18Z. AFT
0323Z...LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TNCM/TKPK FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS FROM THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...AND LOCALLY
HIGHER IN/NEAR TSRA/SHRA. FOLLOWED BY CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AND LAND BREEZE VARIATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS AFT
0323Z.

MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS EXPECTED TOO BECOME MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  92  78  92  78 /  20   0  20  30
STT  88  78  89  79 /  20  10  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/12




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 040147
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
947 PM AST THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...LAST SHOWERS HAD DISSIPATED AROUND 7 PM AST...BUT ONE
PERSISTENT SHOWER GREW JUST AFTER THAT AND DID NOT DISSIPATE
UNTIL AROUND 9:10 PM AST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SOUNDING AT 04/00Z SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE
DURING LAST 24 HOURS...BUT LIFTED INDEX AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
WERE BOTH POINTING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER STABILITY. MODELS SHOW
INCREASING 500 MB TEMPERATURES AND HENCE A LESS EXPLOSIVE
ATMOSPHERE FOR TOMORROWS NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL HAVE DIMINISHED VERY LITTLE BY THEN FROM TODAY AND WOULD
EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE VERY HEAVY WHERE THEY DEVELOP. MIMIC PRODUCT
ALSO SHOWS MOISTURE CIRCLING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
AND ENTERING SOME NORTHEAST FLOW AT 700 MB THAT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AT MAX HEATING FRIDAY. SINCE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER FROM THE EAST TOMORROW THAN THEY
WERE TODAY...SHOWERS MAY MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER WEST. ALTHOUGH
STABILITY WILL HAVE INCREASED...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS STILL VERY CLOSE AND ONLY A LITTLE FILLING HAS OCCURRED...
THEREFORE HAVE UPPED POPS IN THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO AND
INCREASED THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE. MOST COASTAL
AREAS WILL STILL HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH 04/16Z ACROSS THE  LOCAL
TERMINALS. LIGHT AND VRB WINDS THROUGH 04/13Z...BECOMING EASTERLY
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS THEREAFTER. +TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR...AFTER 04/16Z
WHICH WILL CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS AND LIKELY AFFECT THE VICINITY OF
TJBQ/TJMZ/TJPS/TJSJ AND POSSIBLY THE STATIONS THEMSELVES. WX CONDS
IMPROVING AFTER 04/23Z...LEAVING VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 3 FEET OR LESS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO CAUTIONS OR ADVISORIES
FORESEEN NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM AST THU SEP 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER AND NORTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST. WEAK SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY...BECOMING MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS REPORTED. THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT
DIMINISHING NEAR SUNSET. TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER AND
NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE WEAKENING. AS
THIS FEATURE WEAKENS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN HOLD THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. WEAK SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY... BECOMING MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNDER THE PROXIMITY
OF TUTT AND SEA BREEZE REGIME...EXPECT GOOD AFTERNOON CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL THOUGHT AT LEAST
SUNDAY. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 46W WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. BUT LACKING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS IS TO
ONLY FAVOR LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS ACROSS ALL TAF SITE. MOUNTAIN OBSC
WITH TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...SOME OF OF
THIS SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER TJBQ/TJMZ/TJSJ AFT 03/18Z. AFT
0323Z...LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TNCM/TKPK FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS FROM THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...AND LOCALLY
HIGHER IN/NEAR TSRA/SHRA. FOLLOWED BY CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AND LAND BREEZE VARIATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS AFT
0323Z.

MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS EXPECTED TOO BECOME MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  92  78  92  78 /  20   0  20  30
STT  88  78  89  79 /  20  10  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 032006 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
406 PM AST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER AND NORTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST. WEAK SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY...BECOMING MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS REPORTED. THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT
DIMINISHING NEAR SUNSET. TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER AND
NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE WEAKENING. AS
THIS FEATURE WEAKENS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN HOLD THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. WEAK SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY... BECOMING MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNDER THE PROXIMITY
OF TUTT AND SEA BREEZE REGIME...EXPECT GOOD AFTERNOON CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL THOUGHT AT LEAST
SUNDAY. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 46W WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. BUT LACKING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS IS TO
ONLY FAVOR LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS ACROSS ALL TAF SITE. MOUNTAIN OBSC
WITH TSTORM ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...SOME OF
OF THIS SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER TJBQ/TJMZ/TJSJ AFT 03/18Z.
AFT 0323Z...LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TNCM/TKPK FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS FROM THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...AND LOCALLY
HIGHER IN/NEAR TSRA/SHRA. FOLLOWED BY CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AND LAND BREEZE VARIATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS AFT
0323Z.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS EXPECTED TOO BECOME MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  92  78  91 /   0  10  30  30
STT  78  88  79  88 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

27/23




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 032006 RRA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
406 PM AST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER AND NORTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST. WEAK SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY...BECOMING MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS REPORTED. THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT
DIMINISHING NEAR SUNSET. TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER AND
NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE WEAKENING. AS
THIS FEATURE WEAKENS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN HOLD THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. WEAK SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY... BECOMING MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNDER THE PROXIMITY
OF TUTT AND SEA BREEZE REGIME...EXPECT GOOD AFTERNOON CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL THOUGHT AT LEAST
SUNDAY. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 46W WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. BUT LACKING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS IS TO
ONLY FAVOR LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BY THE
END OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS ACROSS ALL TAF SITE. MOUNTAIN OBSC
WITH TSTORM ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...SOME OF
OF THIS SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER TJBQ/TJMZ/TJSJ AFT 03/18Z.
AFT 0323Z...LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TNCM/TKPK FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS FROM THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...AND LOCALLY
HIGHER IN/NEAR TSRA/SHRA. FOLLOWED BY CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AND LAND BREEZE VARIATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS AFT
0323Z.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS EXPECTED TOO BECOME MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  92  78  91 /   0  10  30  30
STT  78  88  79  88 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

27/23




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 032006 RRA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
406 PM AST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER AND NORTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST. WEAK SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY...BECOMING MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS REPORTED. THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT
DIMINISHING NEAR SUNSET. TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER AND
NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE WEAKENING. AS
THIS FEATURE WEAKENS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN HOLD THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. WEAK SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY... BECOMING MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNDER THE PROXIMITY
OF TUTT AND SEA BREEZE REGIME...EXPECT GOOD AFTERNOON CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL THOUGHT AT LEAST
SUNDAY. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 46W WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. BUT LACKING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS IS TO
ONLY FAVOR LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BY THE
END OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS ACROSS ALL TAF SITE. MOUNTAIN OBSC
WITH TSTORM ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...SOME OF
OF THIS SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER TJBQ/TJMZ/TJSJ AFT 03/18Z.
AFT 0323Z...LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TNCM/TKPK FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS FROM THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...AND LOCALLY
HIGHER IN/NEAR TSRA/SHRA. FOLLOWED BY CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AND LAND BREEZE VARIATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS AFT
0323Z.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS EXPECTED TOO BECOME MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  92  78  91 /   0  10  30  30
STT  78  88  79  88 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

27/23





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 032006 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
406 PM AST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER AND NORTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST. WEAK SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY...BECOMING MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS REPORTED. THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT
DIMINISHING NEAR SUNSET. TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER AND
NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE WEAKENING. AS
THIS FEATURE WEAKENS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN HOLD THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. WEAK SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY... BECOMING MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNDER THE PROXIMITY
OF TUTT AND SEA BREEZE REGIME...EXPECT GOOD AFTERNOON CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL THOUGHT AT LEAST
SUNDAY. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 46W WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. BUT LACKING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS IS TO
ONLY FAVOR LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS ACROSS ALL TAF SITE. MOUNTAIN OBSC
WITH TSTORM ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...SOME OF
OF THIS SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER TJBQ/TJMZ/TJSJ AFT 03/18Z.
AFT 0323Z...LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TNCM/TKPK FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS FROM THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...AND LOCALLY
HIGHER IN/NEAR TSRA/SHRA. FOLLOWED BY CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AND LAND BREEZE VARIATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS AFT
0323Z.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS EXPECTED TOO BECOME MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  92  78  91 /   0  10  30  30
STT  78  88  79  88 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

27/23





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 032006 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
406 PM AST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER AND NORTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST. WEAK SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY...BECOMING MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS REPORTED. THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT
DIMINISHING NEAR SUNSET. TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER AND
NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE WEAKENING. AS
THIS FEATURE WEAKENS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN HOLD THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. WEAK SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY... BECOMING MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNDER THE PROXIMITY
OF TUTT AND SEA BREEZE REGIME...EXPECT GOOD AFTERNOON CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL THOUGHT AT LEAST
SUNDAY. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 46W WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. BUT LACKING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS IS TO
ONLY FAVOR LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS ACROSS ALL TAF SITE. MOUNTAIN OBSC
WITH TSTORM ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...SOME OF
OF THIS SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER TJBQ/TJMZ/TJSJ AFT 03/18Z.
AFT 0323Z...LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TNCM/TKPK FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS FROM THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...AND LOCALLY
HIGHER IN/NEAR TSRA/SHRA. FOLLOWED BY CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AND LAND BREEZE VARIATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS AFT
0323Z.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS EXPECTED TOO BECOME MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  92  78  91 /   0  10  30  30
STT  78  88  79  88 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

27/23




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 031543
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1143 AM AST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR NOT DETECTED
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER LAND LATE THIS MORNING. TJSJ SOUNDING DATA
OBSERVED STEEP LAPSE RATE AT THE 850-700MB LAYER...TODAYS VALUES
ARE AROUND THE PERCENTILE 75TH FOR THE CURRENT MONTH. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...AT 500MB...HAVE VALUES AROUND -8 DEGREES
CELSIUS. ANOTHER FACT IS THAT THE CURRENT SOUNDING DOES NOT HAVE
ANY INVERSION. THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE
WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MODERATE TO STRONG TSTORM OVER THE
INTERIOR...NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. IN
ADDITION...UNDER THE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE US VIRGIN
ISLANDS. MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
BUT THE FORECAST DISCUSSION STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEW
DATA.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS ACROSS ALL TAF SITE. MOUNTAIN OBSC
WITH TSTORM ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...SOME OF
OF THIS SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER TJBQ/TJMZ/TJSJ AFT 03/18Z.
AFT 0323Z...LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TNCM/TKPK FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS FROM THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...AND LOCALLY
HIGHER IN/NEAR TSRA/SHRA. FOLLOWED BY CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AND LAND BREEZE VARIATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS AFT
0323Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BELOW 4 FEET WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS. INCLEMENT WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PREVIOUS MARINE FORECAST STILL IN EFFECT...REFER TO THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM AST THU SEP 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL MEANDER OVER AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY. BUILDING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE EAST WILL
BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MOISTURE ON LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY
AND BY MID-WEEK.

DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVER LAND AREAS OVERNIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. IN GENERAL...FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
EXPECT SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR EACH AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY DRY AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT BETWEEN SATURDAY/SUNDAY MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE GRADUALLY...AND PASSING SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE FREQUENT
ON SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR...WITH USUAL
CONVECTION ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THEN...DRY AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK WHEN THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE LOCAL AREA.

AVIATION...VFR XPCTD XCP MVFR IN ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA INTERIOR/WEST
PR DURING THU/FRI AFT WI FEW OBSCD MTNS. WIND BLW FL150 VRBL 10 KT
OR LESS BCMG E TO NE UP TO 10 KT LATE TDY THRU FRI.

MARINE...SEAS MAINLY BELOW 3 FEET AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED THRU FRIDAY. SEAS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE UP TO 4 FEET WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ACROSS
SOME BEACHES OF NORTHERN PR DUE TO A WEAK NORTHERLY GROUND SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  90  78  91 /  10  10  30  30
STT  78  88  79  88 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

27/23




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 031543
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1143 AM AST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR NOT DETECTED
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER LAND LATE THIS MORNING. TJSJ SOUNDING DATA
OBSERVED STEEP LAPSE RATE AT THE 850-700MB LAYER...TODAYS VALUES
ARE AROUND THE PERCENTILE 75TH FOR THE CURRENT MONTH. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...AT 500MB...HAVE VALUES AROUND -8 DEGREES
CELSIUS. ANOTHER FACT IS THAT THE CURRENT SOUNDING DOES NOT HAVE
ANY INVERSION. THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE
WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MODERATE TO STRONG TSTORM OVER THE
INTERIOR...NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. IN
ADDITION...UNDER THE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE US VIRGIN
ISLANDS. MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
BUT THE FORECAST DISCUSSION STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEW
DATA.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS ACROSS ALL TAF SITE. MOUNTAIN OBSC
WITH TSTORM ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...SOME OF
OF THIS SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER TJBQ/TJMZ/TJSJ AFT 03/18Z.
AFT 0323Z...LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TNCM/TKPK FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS FROM THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...AND LOCALLY
HIGHER IN/NEAR TSRA/SHRA. FOLLOWED BY CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AND LAND BREEZE VARIATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS AFT
0323Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BELOW 4 FEET WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS. INCLEMENT WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PREVIOUS MARINE FORECAST STILL IN EFFECT...REFER TO THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM AST THU SEP 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL MEANDER OVER AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY. BUILDING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE EAST WILL
BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MOISTURE ON LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY
AND BY MID-WEEK.

DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVER LAND AREAS OVERNIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. IN GENERAL...FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
EXPECT SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR EACH AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY DRY AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT BETWEEN SATURDAY/SUNDAY MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE GRADUALLY...AND PASSING SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE FREQUENT
ON SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR...WITH USUAL
CONVECTION ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THEN...DRY AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK WHEN THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE LOCAL AREA.

AVIATION...VFR XPCTD XCP MVFR IN ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA INTERIOR/WEST
PR DURING THU/FRI AFT WI FEW OBSCD MTNS. WIND BLW FL150 VRBL 10 KT
OR LESS BCMG E TO NE UP TO 10 KT LATE TDY THRU FRI.

MARINE...SEAS MAINLY BELOW 3 FEET AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED THRU FRIDAY. SEAS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE UP TO 4 FEET WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ACROSS
SOME BEACHES OF NORTHERN PR DUE TO A WEAK NORTHERLY GROUND SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  90  78  91 /  10  10  30  30
STT  78  88  79  88 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

27/23





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 030829
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
429 AM AST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL MEANDER OVER AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY. BUILDING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE EAST WILL
BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MOISTURE ON LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY
AND BY MID-WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVER LAND AREAS OVERNIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. IN GENERAL...FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
EXPECT SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR EACH AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY DRY AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT BETWEEN SATURDAY/SUNDAY MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE GRADUALLY...AND PASSING SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE FREQUENT
ON SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR...WITH USUAL
CONVECTION ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THEN...DRY AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK WHEN THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR XPCTD XCP MVFR IN ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA INTERIOR/WEST
PR DURING THU/FRI AFT WI FEW OBSCD MTNS. WIND BLW FL150 VRBL 10 KT
OR LESS BCMG E TO NE UP TO 10 KT LATE TDY THRU FRI.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS MAINLY BELOW 3 FEET AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED THRU FRIDAY. SEAS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE UP TO 4 FEET WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ACROSS
SOME BEACHES OF NORTHERN PR DUE TO A WEAK NORTHERLY GROUND SWELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  93  78  90  78 /  10  10  10  30
STT  88  78  88  79 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

54/13





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 021922
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
322 PM AST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATES
THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH
THE LOCAL AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPED LATE THIS
MORNING OVER THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AND ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION TONIGHT.

DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE LOCAL REGION. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

IN THE LONG TERM...THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE LOCAL AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY. IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW HOW THIS
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ...TJBQ DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALSO SOME SHRA ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS TJSJ.
AFTER SUNSET...MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE. WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS INCREASING AT 10 TO 15 WITH
HIGHER GUST MAINLY NEAR TSRA/SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  93  79  92 /  20  10  10  10
STT  81  88  79  88 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

27/71





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 021922
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
322 PM AST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATES
THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH
THE LOCAL AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPED LATE THIS
MORNING OVER THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AND ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION TONIGHT.

DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE LOCAL REGION. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

IN THE LONG TERM...THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE LOCAL AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY. IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW HOW THIS
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ...TJBQ DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALSO SOME SHRA ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS TJSJ.
AFTER SUNSET...MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE. WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS INCREASING AT 10 TO 15 WITH
HIGHER GUST MAINLY NEAR TSRA/SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  93  79  92 /  20  10  10  10
STT  81  88  79  88 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

27/71




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 021922
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
322 PM AST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATES
THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH
THE LOCAL AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPED LATE THIS
MORNING OVER THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AND ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION TONIGHT.

DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE LOCAL REGION. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

IN THE LONG TERM...THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE LOCAL AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY. IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW HOW THIS
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ...TJBQ DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALSO SOME SHRA ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS TJSJ.
AFTER SUNSET...MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE. WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS INCREASING AT 10 TO 15 WITH
HIGHER GUST MAINLY NEAR TSRA/SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  93  79  92 /  20  10  10  10
STT  81  88  79  88 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

27/71





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 021535
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1135 AM AST WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
DRY AIR ADVECTION WAS OBSERVED WITH THE AVAILABLE SATELLITE
IMAGES ACROSS THE LOCAL. TJSJ 02/12Z SOUNDING SHOWS A TPW OF 1.72
INCHES...A VALUE AROUND THE PERCENTILE 25TH FOR SEPTEMBER. THE
COMBINATION OF THE LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAYS
WAVE...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND THE LOCAL EFFECT WILL BE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN
ADDITION...SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF EL
YUNQUE TOO. MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER SOME
SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ...TJBQ DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALSO SOME SHRA ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS TJSJ.
AFTER SUNSET...MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE. WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS INCREASING AT 10 TO 15 WITH
HIGHER GUST MAINLY NEAR TSRA/SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 4 FEET WITH WINDS UP TO 15
KNOTS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM AST WED SEP 2 2015/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS LATER
TODAY...CONTINUING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. LINGERING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS TO
INDUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT
MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH A FEW OF THEM REACHING PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NORTHEASTERN PR.
HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THE SAME
AREAS EXPERIENCE SOME RAINFALL ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT
AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST
LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THAT CAN LEAD TO
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA.

AFTER TODAY...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS TUTT IS
FORECAST TO BE ON ITS UNFAVORABLE SIDE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION AND
THE DUE TO THE INTRUSION OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR. HOWEVER...PASSING
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SECTIONS OF THE USVI AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
DIURNAL INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR EACH AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH
VCSH/VCTS AT TJSJ THROUGH AROUND 02/11Z. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP SHRA/TSRA IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TJBQ/TJMZ AFTER
02/16Z...LINGERING TROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL 02/23Z. MVFR CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AND TJBQ...MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE EAST TO E-SE AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS TODAY...GUSTY NEAR
SHRA/TSRA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02/23Z.

MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR LESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  92  79  93  79 /  50  20  10  10
STT  89  81  88  79 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

27/71





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 021535
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1135 AM AST WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
DRY AIR ADVECTION WAS OBSERVED WITH THE AVAILABLE SATELLITE
IMAGES ACROSS THE LOCAL. TJSJ 02/12Z SOUNDING SHOWS A TPW OF 1.72
INCHES...A VALUE AROUND THE PERCENTILE 25TH FOR SEPTEMBER. THE
COMBINATION OF THE LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAYS
WAVE...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND THE LOCAL EFFECT WILL BE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN
ADDITION...SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF EL
YUNQUE TOO. MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER SOME
SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ...TJBQ DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALSO SOME SHRA ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS TJSJ.
AFTER SUNSET...MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE. WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS INCREASING AT 10 TO 15 WITH
HIGHER GUST MAINLY NEAR TSRA/SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 4 FEET WITH WINDS UP TO 15
KNOTS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM AST WED SEP 2 2015/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS LATER
TODAY...CONTINUING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. LINGERING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS TO
INDUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT
MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH A FEW OF THEM REACHING PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NORTHEASTERN PR.
HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THE SAME
AREAS EXPERIENCE SOME RAINFALL ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT
AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST
LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THAT CAN LEAD TO
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA.

AFTER TODAY...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS TUTT IS
FORECAST TO BE ON ITS UNFAVORABLE SIDE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION AND
THE DUE TO THE INTRUSION OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR. HOWEVER...PASSING
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SECTIONS OF THE USVI AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
DIURNAL INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR EACH AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH
VCSH/VCTS AT TJSJ THROUGH AROUND 02/11Z. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP SHRA/TSRA IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TJBQ/TJMZ AFTER
02/16Z...LINGERING TROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL 02/23Z. MVFR CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AND TJBQ...MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE EAST TO E-SE AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS TODAY...GUSTY NEAR
SHRA/TSRA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02/23Z.

MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR LESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  92  79  93  79 /  50  20  10  10
STT  89  81  88  79 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

27/71




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 021535
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1135 AM AST WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
DRY AIR ADVECTION WAS OBSERVED WITH THE AVAILABLE SATELLITE
IMAGES ACROSS THE LOCAL. TJSJ 02/12Z SOUNDING SHOWS A TPW OF 1.72
INCHES...A VALUE AROUND THE PERCENTILE 25TH FOR SEPTEMBER. THE
COMBINATION OF THE LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAYS
WAVE...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND THE LOCAL EFFECT WILL BE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN
ADDITION...SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF EL
YUNQUE TOO. MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER SOME
SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ...TJBQ DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALSO SOME SHRA ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS TJSJ.
AFTER SUNSET...MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE. WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS INCREASING AT 10 TO 15 WITH
HIGHER GUST MAINLY NEAR TSRA/SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 4 FEET WITH WINDS UP TO 15
KNOTS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM AST WED SEP 2 2015/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS LATER
TODAY...CONTINUING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. LINGERING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS TO
INDUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT
MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH A FEW OF THEM REACHING PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NORTHEASTERN PR.
HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THE SAME
AREAS EXPERIENCE SOME RAINFALL ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT
AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST
LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THAT CAN LEAD TO
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA.

AFTER TODAY...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS TUTT IS
FORECAST TO BE ON ITS UNFAVORABLE SIDE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION AND
THE DUE TO THE INTRUSION OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR. HOWEVER...PASSING
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SECTIONS OF THE USVI AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
DIURNAL INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR EACH AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH
VCSH/VCTS AT TJSJ THROUGH AROUND 02/11Z. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP SHRA/TSRA IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TJBQ/TJMZ AFTER
02/16Z...LINGERING TROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL 02/23Z. MVFR CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AND TJBQ...MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE EAST TO E-SE AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS TODAY...GUSTY NEAR
SHRA/TSRA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02/23Z.

MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR LESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  92  79  93  79 /  50  20  10  10
STT  89  81  88  79 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

27/71





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 021535
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1135 AM AST WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
DRY AIR ADVECTION WAS OBSERVED WITH THE AVAILABLE SATELLITE
IMAGES ACROSS THE LOCAL. TJSJ 02/12Z SOUNDING SHOWS A TPW OF 1.72
INCHES...A VALUE AROUND THE PERCENTILE 25TH FOR SEPTEMBER. THE
COMBINATION OF THE LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAYS
WAVE...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND THE LOCAL EFFECT WILL BE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN
ADDITION...SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF EL
YUNQUE TOO. MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER SOME
SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ...TJBQ DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALSO SOME SHRA ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS TJSJ.
AFTER SUNSET...MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE. WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS INCREASING AT 10 TO 15 WITH
HIGHER GUST MAINLY NEAR TSRA/SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 4 FEET WITH WINDS UP TO 15
KNOTS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM AST WED SEP 2 2015/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS LATER
TODAY...CONTINUING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. LINGERING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS TO
INDUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT
MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH A FEW OF THEM REACHING PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NORTHEASTERN PR.
HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THE SAME
AREAS EXPERIENCE SOME RAINFALL ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT
AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST
LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THAT CAN LEAD TO
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA.

AFTER TODAY...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS TUTT IS
FORECAST TO BE ON ITS UNFAVORABLE SIDE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION AND
THE DUE TO THE INTRUSION OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR. HOWEVER...PASSING
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SECTIONS OF THE USVI AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
DIURNAL INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR EACH AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH
VCSH/VCTS AT TJSJ THROUGH AROUND 02/11Z. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP SHRA/TSRA IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TJBQ/TJMZ AFTER
02/16Z...LINGERING TROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL 02/23Z. MVFR CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AND TJBQ...MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE EAST TO E-SE AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS TODAY...GUSTY NEAR
SHRA/TSRA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02/23Z.

MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR LESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  92  79  93  79 /  50  20  10  10
STT  89  81  88  79 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

27/71




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020942
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 AM AST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS LATER
TODAY...CONTINUING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. LINGERING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS TO
INDUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT
MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH A FEW OF THEM REACHING PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NORTHEASTERN PR.
HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THE SAME
AREAS EXPERIENCE SOME RAINFALL ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT
AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST
LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THAT CAN LEAD TO
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA.

AFTER TODAY...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS TUTT IS
FORECAST TO BE ON ITS UNFAVORABLE SIDE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION AND
THE DUE TO THE INTRUSION OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR. HOWEVER...PASSING
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SECTIONS OF THE USVI AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
DIURNAL INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR EACH AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH
VCSH/VCTS AT TJSJ THROUGH AROUND 02/11Z. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP SHRA/TSRA IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TJBQ/TJMZ AFTER
02/16Z...LINGERING TROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL 02/23Z. MVFR CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AND TJBQ...MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE EAST TO E-SE AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS TODAY...GUSTY NEAR
SHRA/TSRA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02/23Z.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR LESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  92  79  93  79 /  50  20  10  10
STT  89  81  88  79 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/13




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020942
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 AM AST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS LATER
TODAY...CONTINUING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. LINGERING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS TO
INDUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT
MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH A FEW OF THEM REACHING PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NORTHEASTERN PR.
HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THE SAME
AREAS EXPERIENCE SOME RAINFALL ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT
AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST
LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THAT CAN LEAD TO
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA.

AFTER TODAY...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS TUTT IS
FORECAST TO BE ON ITS UNFAVORABLE SIDE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION AND
THE DUE TO THE INTRUSION OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR. HOWEVER...PASSING
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SECTIONS OF THE USVI AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
DIURNAL INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR EACH AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH
VCSH/VCTS AT TJSJ THROUGH AROUND 02/11Z. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP SHRA/TSRA IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TJBQ/TJMZ AFTER
02/16Z...LINGERING TROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL 02/23Z. MVFR CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AND TJBQ...MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE EAST TO E-SE AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS TODAY...GUSTY NEAR
SHRA/TSRA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02/23Z.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR LESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  92  79  93  79 /  50  20  10  10
STT  89  81  88  79 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/13





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020214 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1014 PM AST TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NUMEROUS FLOOD
ADVISORIES...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS...SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
AND MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS WERE ISSUED FOR NUMEROUS COASTAL
MUNICIPALITIES OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND.
THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS
EVENING BUT LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS STILL DEPICTED AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...MOVING
SLOWLY WEST NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS THE RESULT OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE BEHIND THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE WILL STILL
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WAVE IS THE BEST MOISTURE
THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HOWEVER...
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH DIURNAL INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
OTHERWISE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ARE NOT SEEN UNTIL NEXT
WEEK...WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDS FM NRN LEEWARD
TERMINALS THRU USVI/EASTERN PR TIL 02/06Z...BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCR OVR
ERN PR...DUE TO LOW SCUD CLDS AND PASSING -SHRA. CLD LYRS...
SCT025...BKN060...BKN120 WITH GRADUAL CLEARING AFT 02/06Z. FEW TCU/
ISOLD TSRA/CB EN ROUTE BTW ERN PR AND NRN LEEWARD...AND N AND S OF
PR ACCOMPANYING DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE. MOSTLY VFR AFT 02/14Z. WND
FM E BLO FL200 AT 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF
15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM AST TUE SEP 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TOMORROW...LINGERING OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS THE RESULT OF
A TROPICAL WAVE JUST OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS WAVE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE BACK SIDE OF
THE WAVE WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WAVE IS THE BEST MOISTURE
THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SOME
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH DIURNAL
INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ARE
NOT SEEN UNTIL FRIDAY NEXT WEEK...WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
APPROACH TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. SOME AREAS OF SAHARAN DUST WERE
SEEN IN THE AREAS OF DRIER AIR...BUT THE BULK OF THE DUST IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

AVIATION...SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJSJ...TJMZ AND
POSSIBLE TJBQ THRU 01/23Z AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE LOCAL
REGION. MAINLY VFR WITH FEW TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK WITH VCSH ACROSS TIST AND TISX. EAST WINDS BLO
FL200 AT 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR TSRA.

MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 15
KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  91  78  93 /  50  40  20  10
STT  80  88  79  88 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/72





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020214 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1014 PM AST TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NUMEROUS FLOOD
ADVISORIES...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS...SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
AND MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS WERE ISSUED FOR NUMEROUS COASTAL
MUNICIPALITIES OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND.
THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS
EVENING BUT LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS STILL DEPICTED AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...MOVING
SLOWLY WEST NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS THE RESULT OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE BEHIND THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE WILL STILL
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WAVE IS THE BEST MOISTURE
THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HOWEVER...
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH DIURNAL INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
OTHERWISE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ARE NOT SEEN UNTIL NEXT
WEEK...WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDS FM NRN LEEWARD
TERMINALS THRU USVI/EASTERN PR TIL 02/06Z...BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCR OVR
ERN PR...DUE TO LOW SCUD CLDS AND PASSING -SHRA. CLD LYRS...
SCT025...BKN060...BKN120 WITH GRADUAL CLEARING AFT 02/06Z. FEW TCU/
ISOLD TSRA/CB EN ROUTE BTW ERN PR AND NRN LEEWARD...AND N AND S OF
PR ACCOMPANYING DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE. MOSTLY VFR AFT 02/14Z. WND
FM E BLO FL200 AT 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF
15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM AST TUE SEP 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TOMORROW...LINGERING OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS THE RESULT OF
A TROPICAL WAVE JUST OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS WAVE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE BACK SIDE OF
THE WAVE WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WAVE IS THE BEST MOISTURE
THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SOME
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH DIURNAL
INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ARE
NOT SEEN UNTIL FRIDAY NEXT WEEK...WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
APPROACH TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. SOME AREAS OF SAHARAN DUST WERE
SEEN IN THE AREAS OF DRIER AIR...BUT THE BULK OF THE DUST IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

AVIATION...SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJSJ...TJMZ AND
POSSIBLE TJBQ THRU 01/23Z AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE LOCAL
REGION. MAINLY VFR WITH FEW TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK WITH VCSH ACROSS TIST AND TISX. EAST WINDS BLO
FL200 AT 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR TSRA.

MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 15
KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  91  78  93 /  50  40  20  10
STT  80  88  79  88 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/72




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020214 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1014 PM AST TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NUMEROUS FLOOD
ADVISORIES...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS...SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
AND MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS WERE ISSUED FOR NUMEROUS COASTAL
MUNICIPALITIES OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND.
THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS
EVENING BUT LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS STILL DEPICTED AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...MOVING
SLOWLY WEST NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS THE RESULT OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE BEHIND THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE WILL STILL
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WAVE IS THE BEST MOISTURE
THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HOWEVER...
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH DIURNAL INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
OTHERWISE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ARE NOT SEEN UNTIL NEXT
WEEK...WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDS FM NRN LEEWARD
TERMINALS THRU USVI/EASTERN PR TIL 02/06Z...BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCR OVR
ERN PR...DUE TO LOW SCUD CLDS AND PASSING -SHRA. CLD LYRS...
SCT025...BKN060...BKN120 WITH GRADUAL CLEARING AFT 02/06Z. FEW TCU/
ISOLD TSRA/CB EN ROUTE BTW ERN PR AND NRN LEEWARD...AND N AND S OF
PR ACCOMPANYING DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE. MOSTLY VFR AFT 02/14Z. WND
FM E BLO FL200 AT 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF
15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM AST TUE SEP 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TOMORROW...LINGERING OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS THE RESULT OF
A TROPICAL WAVE JUST OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS WAVE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE BACK SIDE OF
THE WAVE WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WAVE IS THE BEST MOISTURE
THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SOME
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH DIURNAL
INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ARE
NOT SEEN UNTIL FRIDAY NEXT WEEK...WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
APPROACH TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. SOME AREAS OF SAHARAN DUST WERE
SEEN IN THE AREAS OF DRIER AIR...BUT THE BULK OF THE DUST IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

AVIATION...SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJSJ...TJMZ AND
POSSIBLE TJBQ THRU 01/23Z AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE LOCAL
REGION. MAINLY VFR WITH FEW TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK WITH VCSH ACROSS TIST AND TISX. EAST WINDS BLO
FL200 AT 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR TSRA.

MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 15
KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  91  78  93 /  50  40  20  10
STT  80  88  79  88 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/72




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020214 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1014 PM AST TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NUMEROUS FLOOD
ADVISORIES...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS...SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
AND MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS WERE ISSUED FOR NUMEROUS COASTAL
MUNICIPALITIES OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND.
THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS
EVENING BUT LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS STILL DEPICTED AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...MOVING
SLOWLY WEST NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS THE RESULT OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE BEHIND THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE WILL STILL
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WAVE IS THE BEST MOISTURE
THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HOWEVER...
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH DIURNAL INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
OTHERWISE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ARE NOT SEEN UNTIL NEXT
WEEK...WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDS FM NRN LEEWARD
TERMINALS THRU USVI/EASTERN PR TIL 02/06Z...BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCR OVR
ERN PR...DUE TO LOW SCUD CLDS AND PASSING -SHRA. CLD LYRS...
SCT025...BKN060...BKN120 WITH GRADUAL CLEARING AFT 02/06Z. FEW TCU/
ISOLD TSRA/CB EN ROUTE BTW ERN PR AND NRN LEEWARD...AND N AND S OF
PR ACCOMPANYING DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE. MOSTLY VFR AFT 02/14Z. WND
FM E BLO FL200 AT 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF
15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM AST TUE SEP 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TOMORROW...LINGERING OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS THE RESULT OF
A TROPICAL WAVE JUST OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS WAVE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE BACK SIDE OF
THE WAVE WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WAVE IS THE BEST MOISTURE
THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SOME
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH DIURNAL
INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ARE
NOT SEEN UNTIL FRIDAY NEXT WEEK...WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
APPROACH TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. SOME AREAS OF SAHARAN DUST WERE
SEEN IN THE AREAS OF DRIER AIR...BUT THE BULK OF THE DUST IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

AVIATION...SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJSJ...TJMZ AND
POSSIBLE TJBQ THRU 01/23Z AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE LOCAL
REGION. MAINLY VFR WITH FEW TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK WITH VCSH ACROSS TIST AND TISX. EAST WINDS BLO
FL200 AT 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR TSRA.

MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 15
KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  91  78  93 /  50  40  20  10
STT  80  88  79  88 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/72





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020214
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1014 PM AST TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NUMEROUS FLOOD
ADVISORIES...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS...SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
AND MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS WERE ISSUED FOR NUMEROUS COASTAL
MUNICIPALITIES OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND.
THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS
EVENING BUT LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS STILL DEPICTED AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...MOVING
SLOWLY WEST NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS THE RESULT OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE BEHIND THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE WILL STILL
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WAVE IS THE BEST MOISTURE
THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HOWEVER...
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH DIURNAL INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
OTHERWISE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ARE NOT SEEN UNTIL NEXT
WEEK...WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA WITH FEW TEMPO MVFR WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
TJSJ AND POSSIBLE TJBQ THRU 02/04Z AS THE MOISTURE BEHIND THE
TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. ONLY VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS
TNCM...TKPK AND ACROSS THE USVI FLYING AREA OVERNIGHT. EAST TO
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS BLO FL200 AT 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR
SHRA ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF
15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM AST TUE SEP 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TOMORROW...LINGERING OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS THE RESULT OF
A TROPICAL WAVE JUST OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS WAVE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE BACK SIDE OF
THE WAVE WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WAVE IS THE BEST MOISTURE
THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SOME
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH DIURNAL
INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ARE
NOT SEEN UNTIL FRIDAY NEXT WEEK...WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
APPROACH TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. SOME AREAS OF SAHARAN DUST WERE
SEEN IN THE AREAS OF DRIER AIR...BUT THE BULK OF THE DUST IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

AVIATION...SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJSJ...TJMZ AND
POSSIBLE TJBQ THRU 01/23Z AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE LOCAL
REGION. MAINLY VFR WITH FEW TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK WITH VCSH ACROSS TIST AND TISX. EAST WINDS BLO
FL200 AT 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR TSRA.

MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 15
KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  91  78  93 /  50  40  20  10
STT  80  88  79  88 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/72




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020214
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1014 PM AST TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NUMEROUS FLOOD
ADVISORIES...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS...SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
AND MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS WERE ISSUED FOR NUMEROUS COASTAL
MUNICIPALITIES OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND.
THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS
EVENING BUT LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS STILL DEPICTED AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...MOVING
SLOWLY WEST NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS THE RESULT OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE BEHIND THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE WILL STILL
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WAVE IS THE BEST MOISTURE
THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HOWEVER...
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH DIURNAL INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
OTHERWISE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ARE NOT SEEN UNTIL NEXT
WEEK...WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA WITH FEW TEMPO MVFR WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
TJSJ AND POSSIBLE TJBQ THRU 02/04Z AS THE MOISTURE BEHIND THE
TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. ONLY VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS
TNCM...TKPK AND ACROSS THE USVI FLYING AREA OVERNIGHT. EAST TO
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS BLO FL200 AT 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR
SHRA ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF
15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM AST TUE SEP 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TOMORROW...LINGERING OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS THE RESULT OF
A TROPICAL WAVE JUST OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS WAVE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE BACK SIDE OF
THE WAVE WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WAVE IS THE BEST MOISTURE
THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SOME
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH DIURNAL
INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ARE
NOT SEEN UNTIL FRIDAY NEXT WEEK...WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
APPROACH TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. SOME AREAS OF SAHARAN DUST WERE
SEEN IN THE AREAS OF DRIER AIR...BUT THE BULK OF THE DUST IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

AVIATION...SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJSJ...TJMZ AND
POSSIBLE TJBQ THRU 01/23Z AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE LOCAL
REGION. MAINLY VFR WITH FEW TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK WITH VCSH ACROSS TIST AND TISX. EAST WINDS BLO
FL200 AT 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR TSRA.

MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 15
KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  91  78  93 /  50  40  20  10
STT  80  88  79  88 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/72





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020214
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1014 PM AST TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NUMEROUS FLOOD
ADVISORIES...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS...SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
AND MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS WERE ISSUED FOR NUMEROUS COASTAL
MUNICIPALITIES OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND.
THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS
EVENING BUT LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS STILL DEPICTED AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...MOVING
SLOWLY WEST NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS THE RESULT OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE BEHIND THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE WILL STILL
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WAVE IS THE BEST MOISTURE
THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HOWEVER...
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH DIURNAL INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
OTHERWISE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ARE NOT SEEN UNTIL NEXT
WEEK...WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA WITH FEW TEMPO MVFR WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
TJSJ AND POSSIBLE TJBQ THRU 02/04Z AS THE MOISTURE BEHIND THE
TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. ONLY VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS
TNCM...TKPK AND ACROSS THE USVI FLYING AREA OVERNIGHT. EAST TO
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS BLO FL200 AT 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR
SHRA ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF
15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM AST TUE SEP 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TOMORROW...LINGERING OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS THE RESULT OF
A TROPICAL WAVE JUST OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS WAVE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE BACK SIDE OF
THE WAVE WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WAVE IS THE BEST MOISTURE
THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SOME
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH DIURNAL
INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ARE
NOT SEEN UNTIL FRIDAY NEXT WEEK...WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
APPROACH TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. SOME AREAS OF SAHARAN DUST WERE
SEEN IN THE AREAS OF DRIER AIR...BUT THE BULK OF THE DUST IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

AVIATION...SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJSJ...TJMZ AND
POSSIBLE TJBQ THRU 01/23Z AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE LOCAL
REGION. MAINLY VFR WITH FEW TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK WITH VCSH ACROSS TIST AND TISX. EAST WINDS BLO
FL200 AT 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR TSRA.

MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 15
KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  91  78  93 /  50  40  20  10
STT  80  88  79  88 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/72




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 011819
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
219 PM AST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TOMORROW...LINGERING OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS THE RESULT OF
A TROPICAL WAVE JUST OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS WAVE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE BACK SIDE OF
THE WAVE WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WAVE IS THE BEST MOISTURE
THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SOME
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH DIURNAL
INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ARE
NOT SEEN UNTIL FRIDAY NEXT WEEK...WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
APPROACH TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. SOME AREAS OF SAHARAN DUST WERE
SEEN IN THE AREAS OF DRIER AIR...BUT THE BULK OF THE DUST IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJSJ...TJMZ AND
POSSIBLE TJBQ THRU 01/23Z AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE LOCAL
REGION. MAINLY VFR WITH FEW TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK WITH VCSH ACROSS TIST AND TISX. EAST WINDS BLO
FL200 AT 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 15
KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  91  78  93 /  50  40  20  10
STT  80  88  79  88 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

71/72





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 011819
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
219 PM AST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TOMORROW...LINGERING OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS THE RESULT OF
A TROPICAL WAVE JUST OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS WAVE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE BACK SIDE OF
THE WAVE WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WAVE IS THE BEST MOISTURE
THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SOME
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH DIURNAL
INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ARE
NOT SEEN UNTIL FRIDAY NEXT WEEK...WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
APPROACH TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. SOME AREAS OF SAHARAN DUST WERE
SEEN IN THE AREAS OF DRIER AIR...BUT THE BULK OF THE DUST IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJSJ...TJMZ AND
POSSIBLE TJBQ THRU 01/23Z AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE LOCAL
REGION. MAINLY VFR WITH FEW TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK WITH VCSH ACROSS TIST AND TISX. EAST WINDS BLO
FL200 AT 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 15
KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  91  78  93 /  50  40  20  10
STT  80  88  79  88 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

71/72





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 011511
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1111 AM AST TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING LATE
THIS MORNING AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ACTIVE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AS WAVE COMBINED WITH DAYTIMEHEATING
AND LOCAL EFFECTS. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST GRIDS AS FORECAST
IS ON TRACK WITH ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FLYING AREA
THRU THE FCST PERIOD AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. MAINLY VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS SPREADING FM
LEEWARD TERMINALS THRU USVI/EASTERN PR TERMINALS BY NOON
AST...THEN OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR WITH MTN TOPS OBSCD
ALONG ALL MTN RANGES OF MAINLAND PR AFT 01/16Z. EASTERLIES BLO
FL200 AT 10-20 KTS...HIGHER GUSTS NEAR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM AST TUE SEP 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN HOVER NEARBY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRST NORTH OF THE AREA AND THEN MAINLY OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE
AREA. MID LEVELS MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND THEN DRY OUT
SLOWLY ON FRIDAY. MID LEVELS ARE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON SPREADING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH A FEW PATCHES OF MOISTURE COME IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND NEITHER STRONG FEATURES NOR DEEP
MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

DISCUSSION...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS FELL ACROSS SAINT THOMAS
AND SAINT CROIX LEAVING SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS AND ONE TENTH INCH
RESPECTIVELY. AND...SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO MOVE IN ACROSS
EASTERN PUERTO RICO...WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING INTO HUMACAO AND
YABUCOA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SPORADICALLY ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND THEN FORM ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WOULD EXPECT SOME POSSIBILITY FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING TODAY. MOISTURE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE
VERY HEAVY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO...THEN...TOMORROW...SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN TAPERING OFF IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO...BUT THE BACK OF THE WAVE WILL STILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY.

ACCORDING TO THE GFS THIS IS THE BEST MOISTURE THAT WILL OCCUR FOR
THE NEXT 10 DAYS. FLOW AT MID LEVELS BECOMES NORTHEAST AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND WEAK BANDS OF MOISTURE DO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT OTHERWISE SIGNIFICANT
FEATURES ARE NOT SEEN UNTIL AFTER THE FRIDAY AFTER NEXT...WHEN A
STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS SEEN APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IT
WILL PROBABLY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL 13 SEPTEMBER AND HAS NOT YET COME
OUT OF AFRICA. SOME AREAS OF SAHARAN DUST WERE SEEN IN THE AREAS
OF DRIER AIR...BUT THE BULK OF THE DUST IS TO MOVE SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AVIATION...SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FLYING AREA
THRU THE FCST PERIOD AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. MAINLY VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS SPREADING FM
LEEWARD TERMINALS THRU USVI/EASTERN PR TERMINALS BY NOON
AST...THEN OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR WITH MTN TOPS OBSCD
ALONG ALL MTN RANGES OF MAINLAND PR AFT 01/16Z. EASTERLIES BLO
FL200 AT 10-20 KTS...HIGHER GUSTS NEAR TSRA.

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  91  78 /  60  50  40  20
STT  88  80  88  79 /  60  40  40  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

71/72




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 011511
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1111 AM AST TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING LATE
THIS MORNING AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ACTIVE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AS WAVE COMBINED WITH DAYTIMEHEATING
AND LOCAL EFFECTS. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST GRIDS AS FORECAST
IS ON TRACK WITH ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FLYING AREA
THRU THE FCST PERIOD AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. MAINLY VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS SPREADING FM
LEEWARD TERMINALS THRU USVI/EASTERN PR TERMINALS BY NOON
AST...THEN OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR WITH MTN TOPS OBSCD
ALONG ALL MTN RANGES OF MAINLAND PR AFT 01/16Z. EASTERLIES BLO
FL200 AT 10-20 KTS...HIGHER GUSTS NEAR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM AST TUE SEP 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN HOVER NEARBY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRST NORTH OF THE AREA AND THEN MAINLY OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE
AREA. MID LEVELS MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND THEN DRY OUT
SLOWLY ON FRIDAY. MID LEVELS ARE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON SPREADING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH A FEW PATCHES OF MOISTURE COME IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND NEITHER STRONG FEATURES NOR DEEP
MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

DISCUSSION...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS FELL ACROSS SAINT THOMAS
AND SAINT CROIX LEAVING SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS AND ONE TENTH INCH
RESPECTIVELY. AND...SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO MOVE IN ACROSS
EASTERN PUERTO RICO...WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING INTO HUMACAO AND
YABUCOA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SPORADICALLY ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND THEN FORM ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WOULD EXPECT SOME POSSIBILITY FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING TODAY. MOISTURE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE
VERY HEAVY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO...THEN...TOMORROW...SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN TAPERING OFF IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO...BUT THE BACK OF THE WAVE WILL STILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY.

ACCORDING TO THE GFS THIS IS THE BEST MOISTURE THAT WILL OCCUR FOR
THE NEXT 10 DAYS. FLOW AT MID LEVELS BECOMES NORTHEAST AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND WEAK BANDS OF MOISTURE DO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT OTHERWISE SIGNIFICANT
FEATURES ARE NOT SEEN UNTIL AFTER THE FRIDAY AFTER NEXT...WHEN A
STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS SEEN APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IT
WILL PROBABLY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL 13 SEPTEMBER AND HAS NOT YET COME
OUT OF AFRICA. SOME AREAS OF SAHARAN DUST WERE SEEN IN THE AREAS
OF DRIER AIR...BUT THE BULK OF THE DUST IS TO MOVE SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AVIATION...SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FLYING AREA
THRU THE FCST PERIOD AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. MAINLY VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS SPREADING FM
LEEWARD TERMINALS THRU USVI/EASTERN PR TERMINALS BY NOON
AST...THEN OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR WITH MTN TOPS OBSCD
ALONG ALL MTN RANGES OF MAINLAND PR AFT 01/16Z. EASTERLIES BLO
FL200 AT 10-20 KTS...HIGHER GUSTS NEAR TSRA.

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  91  78 /  60  50  40  20
STT  88  80  88  79 /  60  40  40  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

71/72





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 011511
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1111 AM AST TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING LATE
THIS MORNING AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ACTIVE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AS WAVE COMBINED WITH DAYTIMEHEATING
AND LOCAL EFFECTS. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST GRIDS AS FORECAST
IS ON TRACK WITH ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FLYING AREA
THRU THE FCST PERIOD AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. MAINLY VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS SPREADING FM
LEEWARD TERMINALS THRU USVI/EASTERN PR TERMINALS BY NOON
AST...THEN OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR WITH MTN TOPS OBSCD
ALONG ALL MTN RANGES OF MAINLAND PR AFT 01/16Z. EASTERLIES BLO
FL200 AT 10-20 KTS...HIGHER GUSTS NEAR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM AST TUE SEP 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN HOVER NEARBY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRST NORTH OF THE AREA AND THEN MAINLY OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE
AREA. MID LEVELS MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND THEN DRY OUT
SLOWLY ON FRIDAY. MID LEVELS ARE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON SPREADING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH A FEW PATCHES OF MOISTURE COME IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND NEITHER STRONG FEATURES NOR DEEP
MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

DISCUSSION...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS FELL ACROSS SAINT THOMAS
AND SAINT CROIX LEAVING SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS AND ONE TENTH INCH
RESPECTIVELY. AND...SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO MOVE IN ACROSS
EASTERN PUERTO RICO...WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING INTO HUMACAO AND
YABUCOA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SPORADICALLY ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND THEN FORM ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WOULD EXPECT SOME POSSIBILITY FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING TODAY. MOISTURE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE
VERY HEAVY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO...THEN...TOMORROW...SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN TAPERING OFF IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO...BUT THE BACK OF THE WAVE WILL STILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY.

ACCORDING TO THE GFS THIS IS THE BEST MOISTURE THAT WILL OCCUR FOR
THE NEXT 10 DAYS. FLOW AT MID LEVELS BECOMES NORTHEAST AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND WEAK BANDS OF MOISTURE DO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT OTHERWISE SIGNIFICANT
FEATURES ARE NOT SEEN UNTIL AFTER THE FRIDAY AFTER NEXT...WHEN A
STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS SEEN APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IT
WILL PROBABLY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL 13 SEPTEMBER AND HAS NOT YET COME
OUT OF AFRICA. SOME AREAS OF SAHARAN DUST WERE SEEN IN THE AREAS
OF DRIER AIR...BUT THE BULK OF THE DUST IS TO MOVE SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AVIATION...SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FLYING AREA
THRU THE FCST PERIOD AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. MAINLY VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS SPREADING FM
LEEWARD TERMINALS THRU USVI/EASTERN PR TERMINALS BY NOON
AST...THEN OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR WITH MTN TOPS OBSCD
ALONG ALL MTN RANGES OF MAINLAND PR AFT 01/16Z. EASTERLIES BLO
FL200 AT 10-20 KTS...HIGHER GUSTS NEAR TSRA.

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  91  78 /  60  50  40  20
STT  88  80  88  79 /  60  40  40  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

71/72





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