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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 050214
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1014 PM AST TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS TO VARIABLY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. SHOWER ACTIVITY EXTENDED
INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE WESTERN PUERTO RICO...THEN MOVED
OVER THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE AVAILABLE SURFACE MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...AND THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE USVI OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. FOLLOWED BY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR. MINOR
CHANGES WERE INTRODUCE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITE DURG PRD. SCT-BKN CLD
LYRS...020...050 TIL 05/12Z ACROSS FLYING AREA UNDER PREVAILING
MODERATE ENE TRADE WIND FLOW. FEW TCU TOPS 160-180...MVFR CONDS PSBL
W/PASSING SHRA TIL 05/14Z EN ROUTE BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS. L/LVL
WNDS FM ENE BLO FL200. SFC WND FM E 10 KTS OR LESS TIL 05/12Z...INCR
TO 10-20 KTS W/OCNL HIGH GUSTS AFT 05/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS EXPOSE WATERS DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. ELSEWHERE...
MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM AST TUE AUG 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS THRU FRIDAY. MID
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ON BY LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY.

DISCUSSION...BY MID AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. AFFECTING MANLY THE MUNICIPALITIES OF
PONCE WEST TO SABANA GRANDE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED ALSO
IN STREAMERS FORMING OFF THE USVI AND REACHING SECTIONS OF EASTERN
PR. HOWEVER...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE NOT SIGNIFICANT AS OF 3
PM AST.

LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVERALL AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
HOLDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...AS RIDGE WEAKEN EXPECT PASSING
TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER THE USVI AND WINDWARD AREAS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH DAY. BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AS TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTS WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROF...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
WATERS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.

AVIATION...VFR XPCTD THRU WED XCP IN SCT SHRA/TSRA WEST PR INCL
TJMZ WED AFT. WINDS BLW FL100-SFC E-ENE 16-24 KT GRADUALLY BCMG
E 12-20 KT TONITE-WED.

MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS 4-6 FEET DECREASING TO 3-5 FEET IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

FIRE WEATHER...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. SPECIALLY NEAR THE CAMP SANTIAGO AREA
WHERE RH VALUES REACHED THE UPPER 40S AND STRONG WINDS PERSISTED
THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  80  90 /  20  20  20  20
STT  79  89  78  89 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/27




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041859
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS THRU FRIDAY. MID
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ON BY LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BY MID AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. AFFECTING MANLY THE MUNICIPALITIES OF
PONCE WEST TO SABANA GRANDE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED ALSO
IN STREAMERS FORMING OFF THE USVI AND REACHING SECTIONS OF EASTERN
PR. HOWEVER...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE NOT SIGNIFICANT AS OF 3
PM AST.

LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVERALL AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
HOLDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...AS RIDGE WEAKEN EXPECT PASSING
TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER THE USVI AND WINDWARD AREAS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH DAY. BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AS TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTS WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROF...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
WATERS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR XPCTD THRU WED XCP IN SCT SHRA/TSRA WEST PR INCL
TJMZ WED AFT. WINDS BLW FL100-SFC E-ENE 16-24 KT GRADUALLY BCMG
E 12-20 KT TONITE-WED.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS 4-6 FEET DECREASING TO 3-5 FEET IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. SPECIALLY NEAR THE CAMP SANTIAGO AREA
WHERE RH VALUES REACHED THE UPPER 40S AND STRONG WINDS PERSISTED
THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  91  80  90 /  20  20  20  20
STT  78  91  78  89 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

54/13




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041859
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS THRU FRIDAY. MID
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ON BY LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BY MID AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. AFFECTING MANLY THE MUNICIPALITIES OF
PONCE WEST TO SABANA GRANDE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED ALSO
IN STREAMERS FORMING OFF THE USVI AND REACHING SECTIONS OF EASTERN
PR. HOWEVER...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE NOT SIGNIFICANT AS OF 3
PM AST.

LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVERALL AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
HOLDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...AS RIDGE WEAKEN EXPECT PASSING
TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER THE USVI AND WINDWARD AREAS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH DAY. BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AS TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTS WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROF...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
WATERS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR XPCTD THRU WED XCP IN SCT SHRA/TSRA WEST PR INCL
TJMZ WED AFT. WINDS BLW FL100-SFC E-ENE 16-24 KT GRADUALLY BCMG
E 12-20 KT TONITE-WED.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS 4-6 FEET DECREASING TO 3-5 FEET IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. SPECIALLY NEAR THE CAMP SANTIAGO AREA
WHERE RH VALUES REACHED THE UPPER 40S AND STRONG WINDS PERSISTED
THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  91  80  90 /  20  20  20  20
STT  78  91  78  89 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

54/13





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041351
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
951 AM AST TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING
WESTWARD ON THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF CULEBRA/SAINT THOMAS BUT EXPECT
THESE TO STAY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. 12Z TJSJ
SOUNDING ARRIVED SHOWING A DAUNTING 5.5C INVERSION BETWEEN 830MB
AND 800 MB WITH A DEW POINT IMMEDIATELY DROPPING OFF TO -3.6C...
AND ANOTHER INVERSION JUST ABOVE 600 MB...FRAMING THE SAHARAN AIR
ALOFT. SAHARAN AIR WILL BEGIN EXITING TOWARDS THE WEST LATE TODAY
BUT MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FOLLOWING THE BRIEF TONGUE
OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY PRODUCING THE SHOWERS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.

DECREASED THE PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS TODAY IN UPDATE AS THE SAHARAN AIR WILL REDUCE CHANCES OF
DEVELOPMENT. THOSE THAT DO WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND LIGHT...MAINLY
FOR SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO MOUNTAINS AND OVER ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR XPCTD THRU WED XCP IN SCT SHRA/TSRA WEST PR INCL
TJMZ WED AFT. WINDS BLW FL100-SFC E-ENE 18-30 KT DECR 16-24 KT IN
AFT THEN GRADUALLY BCMG E 12-20 KT TONITE-WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SAHARAN AIR WILL HANG AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO CAP
CONVECTION ALMOST COMPLETELY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO LOWER 40S ACROSS LARGE AREA OF SOUTHERN
COAST AND HILLS OF PUERTO RICO ALONG WITH WINDS ALMOST AS HIGH AS
YESTERDAY. FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED THIS AREA FOR TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES AS CONDITIONS REMAIN...GENERALLY AT 20 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 6 FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM AST TUE AUG 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL THEN
ERODE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS TODAY.

DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS. COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

UNDER LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT...
CONTINUE TO EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. SOME
HAZINESS IS ALSO EXPECTED TODAY UNDER A WEAK SAL.

AS RIDGE ALOFT ERODES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ESTABLISHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
WEDNESDAY THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY VERY BRIEF -SHRA ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 04/18Z. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AROUND TJMZ
AFTER 04/18Z. WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 15-20KT AND GUSTY AFTER
04/13Z...DIMINISHING AFTER 04/23Z.

MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS 4-6 FEET
DECREASING TO 3-5 FEET IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  91  80 /   0  20  20  20
STT  92  78  91  78 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

54/13





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041351
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
951 AM AST TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING
WESTWARD ON THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF CULEBRA/SAINT THOMAS BUT EXPECT
THESE TO STAY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. 12Z TJSJ
SOUNDING ARRIVED SHOWING A DAUNTING 5.5C INVERSION BETWEEN 830MB
AND 800 MB WITH A DEW POINT IMMEDIATELY DROPPING OFF TO -3.6C...
AND ANOTHER INVERSION JUST ABOVE 600 MB...FRAMING THE SAHARAN AIR
ALOFT. SAHARAN AIR WILL BEGIN EXITING TOWARDS THE WEST LATE TODAY
BUT MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FOLLOWING THE BRIEF TONGUE
OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY PRODUCING THE SHOWERS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.

DECREASED THE PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS TODAY IN UPDATE AS THE SAHARAN AIR WILL REDUCE CHANCES OF
DEVELOPMENT. THOSE THAT DO WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND LIGHT...MAINLY
FOR SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO MOUNTAINS AND OVER ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR XPCTD THRU WED XCP IN SCT SHRA/TSRA WEST PR INCL
TJMZ WED AFT. WINDS BLW FL100-SFC E-ENE 18-30 KT DECR 16-24 KT IN
AFT THEN GRADUALLY BCMG E 12-20 KT TONITE-WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SAHARAN AIR WILL HANG AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO CAP
CONVECTION ALMOST COMPLETELY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO LOWER 40S ACROSS LARGE AREA OF SOUTHERN
COAST AND HILLS OF PUERTO RICO ALONG WITH WINDS ALMOST AS HIGH AS
YESTERDAY. FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED THIS AREA FOR TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES AS CONDITIONS REMAIN...GENERALLY AT 20 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 6 FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM AST TUE AUG 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL THEN
ERODE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS TODAY.

DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS. COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

UNDER LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT...
CONTINUE TO EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. SOME
HAZINESS IS ALSO EXPECTED TODAY UNDER A WEAK SAL.

AS RIDGE ALOFT ERODES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ESTABLISHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
WEDNESDAY THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY VERY BRIEF -SHRA ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 04/18Z. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AROUND TJMZ
AFTER 04/18Z. WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 15-20KT AND GUSTY AFTER
04/13Z...DIMINISHING AFTER 04/23Z.

MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS 4-6 FEET
DECREASING TO 3-5 FEET IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  91  80 /   0  20  20  20
STT  92  78  91  78 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

54/13




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 040925
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL THEN
ERODE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS. COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

UNDER LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT...
CONTINUE TO EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. SOME
HAZINESS IS ALSO EXPECTED TODAY UNDER A WEAK SAL.

AS RIDGE ALOFT ERODES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ESTABLISHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
WEDNESDAY THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY VERY BRIEF -SHRA ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 04/18Z. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AROUND TJMZ
AFTER 04/18Z. WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 15-20KT AND GUSTY AFTER
04/13Z...DIMINISHING AFTER 04/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS 4-6 FEET
DECREASING TO 3-5 FEET IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  91  80 /  10  20  20  20
STT  92  78  91  78 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 040925
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL THEN
ERODE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS. COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

UNDER LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT...
CONTINUE TO EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. SOME
HAZINESS IS ALSO EXPECTED TODAY UNDER A WEAK SAL.

AS RIDGE ALOFT ERODES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ESTABLISHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
WEDNESDAY THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY VERY BRIEF -SHRA ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 04/18Z. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AROUND TJMZ
AFTER 04/18Z. WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 15-20KT AND GUSTY AFTER
04/13Z...DIMINISHING AFTER 04/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS 4-6 FEET
DECREASING TO 3-5 FEET IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  91  80 /  10  20  20  20
STT  92  78  91  78 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 040925
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL THEN
ERODE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS. COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

UNDER LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT...
CONTINUE TO EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. SOME
HAZINESS IS ALSO EXPECTED TODAY UNDER A WEAK SAL.

AS RIDGE ALOFT ERODES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ESTABLISHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
WEDNESDAY THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY VERY BRIEF -SHRA ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 04/18Z. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AROUND TJMZ
AFTER 04/18Z. WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 15-20KT AND GUSTY AFTER
04/13Z...DIMINISHING AFTER 04/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS 4-6 FEET
DECREASING TO 3-5 FEET IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  91  80 /  10  20  20  20
STT  92  78  91  78 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 040925
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL THEN
ERODE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS. COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

UNDER LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT...
CONTINUE TO EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. SOME
HAZINESS IS ALSO EXPECTED TODAY UNDER A WEAK SAL.

AS RIDGE ALOFT ERODES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ESTABLISHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
WEDNESDAY THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY VERY BRIEF -SHRA ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 04/18Z. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AROUND TJMZ
AFTER 04/18Z. WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 15-20KT AND GUSTY AFTER
04/13Z...DIMINISHING AFTER 04/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS 4-6 FEET
DECREASING TO 3-5 FEET IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  91  80 /  10  20  20  20
STT  92  78  91  78 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 040031
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
831 PM AST MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AT THIS MOMENT THE DOPPLER RADAR IS REPORTING SHOWER FREE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS AND AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS WEATHER SCENARIO IT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE EAST
AT 15 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS 4-6 FEET DECREASING TO 3-5 FEET IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM AST MON AUG 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU AT LEAST
THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON BY LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY.

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND STRONG
TRADE WIND CAP WILL MAINTAIN HAZY SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THEN...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE WEEKEND
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A TROPICAL WAVE.

FORECAST STILL ON TRACK...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THRU WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY...A WETTER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER THE USVI
AND WINDWARD AREAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. AS TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTS WITH UPPER LOW ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
WATERS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SFC WNDS WILL PREVAIL FROM
THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS.

MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS 4-6 FEET DECREASING TO 3-5 FEET IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  91  79  90  79 /  10  20  20  20
STT  91  79  90  78 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

10/71




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 040031
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
831 PM AST MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AT THIS MOMENT THE DOPPLER RADAR IS REPORTING SHOWER FREE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS AND AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS WEATHER SCENARIO IT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE EAST
AT 15 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS 4-6 FEET DECREASING TO 3-5 FEET IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM AST MON AUG 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU AT LEAST
THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON BY LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY.

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND STRONG
TRADE WIND CAP WILL MAINTAIN HAZY SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THEN...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE WEEKEND
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A TROPICAL WAVE.

FORECAST STILL ON TRACK...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THRU WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY...A WETTER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER THE USVI
AND WINDWARD AREAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. AS TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTS WITH UPPER LOW ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
WATERS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SFC WNDS WILL PREVAIL FROM
THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS.

MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS 4-6 FEET DECREASING TO 3-5 FEET IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  91  79  90  79 /  10  20  20  20
STT  91  79  90  78 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

10/71





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 031854
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU AT LEAST
THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON BY LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND STRONG
TRADE WIND CAP WILL MAINTAIN HAZY SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THEN...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE WEEKEND
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A TROPICAL WAVE.

FORECAST STILL ON TRACK...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THRU WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY...A WETTER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER THE USVI
AND WINDWARD AREAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. AS TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTS WITH UPPER LOW ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
WATERS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SFC WNDS WILL PREVAIL FROM
THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS 4-6 FEET DECREASING TO 3-5 FEET IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  79  88 /  20  20  20  20
STT  79  90  78  89 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

08/13




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 031854
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU AT LEAST
THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON BY LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND STRONG
TRADE WIND CAP WILL MAINTAIN HAZY SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THEN...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE WEEKEND
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A TROPICAL WAVE.

FORECAST STILL ON TRACK...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THRU WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY...A WETTER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER THE USVI
AND WINDWARD AREAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. AS TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTS WITH UPPER LOW ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
WATERS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SFC WNDS WILL PREVAIL FROM
THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS 4-6 FEET DECREASING TO 3-5 FEET IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  79  88 /  20  20  20  20
STT  79  90  78  89 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

08/13





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 031606
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1206 PM AST MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...TROPICAL WAVE MOVED OVER THE REGION DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. ITS AXIS CURRENTLY (16Z) ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA AND CENTRAL CARIB SEA. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL RAPIDLY
REPLACE THIS WAVE AS INDICATED BY UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES. EVEN THOUGH SOME MOISTURE MAY LINGER ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...RAPID STABILIZATION OF THE
LOCAL ATMOSPHERE WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THIS REASON...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN REMOVED
FROM THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HOWEVER
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD STILL OCCUR. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE USVI FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...AS THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WILL CONTINUE TO
YIELD BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND ADJACENT
WATERS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER ALL
TERMINALS...EXCEPT FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO IN THE VICINITY OF
TJBQ AND TJMZ THIS AFTERNOON. SFC WNDS WILL PREVAIL FROM EAST AT
15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM AST MON AUG 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE EAST AND HOLD THROUGH MID WEEK. RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL
THEN ERODE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING .

DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN
AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNT WERE LESS THAN HALF INCH.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE UNDER BUILDING RIDGE.
RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A GENERALLY
FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES AS
WELL AS LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
EACH DAY. HAZY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY UNDER SAL.

AS RIDGE ALOFT ERODES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ESTABLISHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...A SHIFT TO A WETTER PATTERN COULD BE EXPECTED.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. BRIEF SHRA/TSRA ARE MOVING CLOSE TO TJPS AND ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE WEST...AFFECTING TJPS THROUGH 03/10Z AND
POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME VCSH AT TJMZ. THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN AFTER
03/12Z LEAVING ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF
SHOWERS THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT 5-10KT THROUGH
03/13Z THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT AND GUSTY...STILL FROM THE
EAST BUT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

FIRE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE UNDER BUILDING
RIDGE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 45-50 PERCENT AND WINDS BETWEEN
15 AND 20 MPH EXPECTED TODAY. SEE THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR
MORE DETAILS.

MARINE...CHOPPY SEAS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  91  79  90  79 /  10  30  30  20
STT  91  79  90  78 /  10  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

08/13





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 031606
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1206 PM AST MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...TROPICAL WAVE MOVED OVER THE REGION DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. ITS AXIS CURRENTLY (16Z) ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA AND CENTRAL CARIB SEA. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL RAPIDLY
REPLACE THIS WAVE AS INDICATED BY UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES. EVEN THOUGH SOME MOISTURE MAY LINGER ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...RAPID STABILIZATION OF THE
LOCAL ATMOSPHERE WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THIS REASON...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN REMOVED
FROM THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HOWEVER
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD STILL OCCUR. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE USVI FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...AS THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WILL CONTINUE TO
YIELD BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND ADJACENT
WATERS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER ALL
TERMINALS...EXCEPT FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO IN THE VICINITY OF
TJBQ AND TJMZ THIS AFTERNOON. SFC WNDS WILL PREVAIL FROM EAST AT
15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM AST MON AUG 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE EAST AND HOLD THROUGH MID WEEK. RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL
THEN ERODE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING .

DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN
AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNT WERE LESS THAN HALF INCH.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE UNDER BUILDING RIDGE.
RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A GENERALLY
FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES AS
WELL AS LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
EACH DAY. HAZY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY UNDER SAL.

AS RIDGE ALOFT ERODES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ESTABLISHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...A SHIFT TO A WETTER PATTERN COULD BE EXPECTED.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. BRIEF SHRA/TSRA ARE MOVING CLOSE TO TJPS AND ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE WEST...AFFECTING TJPS THROUGH 03/10Z AND
POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME VCSH AT TJMZ. THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN AFTER
03/12Z LEAVING ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF
SHOWERS THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT 5-10KT THROUGH
03/13Z THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT AND GUSTY...STILL FROM THE
EAST BUT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

FIRE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE UNDER BUILDING
RIDGE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 45-50 PERCENT AND WINDS BETWEEN
15 AND 20 MPH EXPECTED TODAY. SEE THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR
MORE DETAILS.

MARINE...CHOPPY SEAS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  91  79  90  79 /  10  30  30  20
STT  91  79  90  78 /  10  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

08/13




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 030954
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
554 AM AST MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE EAST AND HOLD THROUGH MID WEEK. RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL
THEN ERODE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN
AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNT WERE LESS THAN HALF INCH.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE UNDER BUILDING RIDGE.
RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A GENERALLY
FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES AS
WELL AS LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
EACH DAY. HAZY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY UNDER SAL.

AS RIDGE ALOFT ERODES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ESTABLISHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...A SHIFT TO A WETTER PATTERN COULD BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. BRIEF SHRA/TSRA ARE MOVING CLOSE TO TJPS AND ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE WEST...AFFECTING TJPS THROUGH 03/10Z AND
POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME VCSH AT TJMZ. THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN AFTER
03/12Z LEAVING ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF
SHOWERS THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT 5-10KT THROUGH
03/13Z THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT AND GUSTY...STILL FROM THE
EAST BUT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.FIRE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE UNDER BUILDING
RIDGE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 45-50 PERCENT AND WINDS BETWEEN
15 AND 20 MPH EXPECTED TODAY. SEE THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR
MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MARINE...CHOPPY SEAS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  79 /  30  30  30  20
STT  90  79  90  78 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 030954
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
554 AM AST MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE EAST AND HOLD THROUGH MID WEEK. RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL
THEN ERODE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN
AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNT WERE LESS THAN HALF INCH.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE UNDER BUILDING RIDGE.
RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A GENERALLY
FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES AS
WELL AS LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
EACH DAY. HAZY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY UNDER SAL.

AS RIDGE ALOFT ERODES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ESTABLISHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...A SHIFT TO A WETTER PATTERN COULD BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. BRIEF SHRA/TSRA ARE MOVING CLOSE TO TJPS AND ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE WEST...AFFECTING TJPS THROUGH 03/10Z AND
POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME VCSH AT TJMZ. THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN AFTER
03/12Z LEAVING ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF
SHOWERS THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT 5-10KT THROUGH
03/13Z THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT AND GUSTY...STILL FROM THE
EAST BUT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.FIRE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE UNDER BUILDING
RIDGE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 45-50 PERCENT AND WINDS BETWEEN
15 AND 20 MPH EXPECTED TODAY. SEE THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR
MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MARINE...CHOPPY SEAS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  79 /  30  30  30  20
STT  90  79  90  78 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 030954 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
554 AM AST MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE EAST AND HOLD THROUGH MID WEEK. RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL
THEN ERODE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING .

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN
AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNT WERE LESS THAN HALF INCH.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE UNDER BUILDING RIDGE.
RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A GENERALLY
FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES AS
WELL AS LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
EACH DAY. HAZY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY UNDER SAL.

AS RIDGE ALOFT ERODES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ESTABLISHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...A SHIFT TO A WETTER PATTERN COULD BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. BRIEF SHRA/TSRA ARE MOVING CLOSE TO TJPS AND ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE WEST...AFFECTING TJPS THROUGH 03/10Z AND
POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME VCSH AT TJMZ. THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN AFTER
03/12Z LEAVING ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF
SHOWERS THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT 5-10KT THROUGH
03/13Z THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT AND GUSTY...STILL FROM THE
EAST BUT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.FIRE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE UNDER BUILDING
RIDGE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 45-50 PERCENT AND WINDS BETWEEN
15 AND 20 MPH EXPECTED TODAY. SEE THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR
MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MARINE...CHOPPY SEAS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  79 /  30  30  30  20
STT  90  79  90  78 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 030954 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
554 AM AST MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE EAST AND HOLD THROUGH MID WEEK. RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL
THEN ERODE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING .

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN
AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNT WERE LESS THAN HALF INCH.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE UNDER BUILDING RIDGE.
RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A GENERALLY
FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES AS
WELL AS LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
EACH DAY. HAZY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY UNDER SAL.

AS RIDGE ALOFT ERODES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ESTABLISHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...A SHIFT TO A WETTER PATTERN COULD BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. BRIEF SHRA/TSRA ARE MOVING CLOSE TO TJPS AND ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE WEST...AFFECTING TJPS THROUGH 03/10Z AND
POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME VCSH AT TJMZ. THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN AFTER
03/12Z LEAVING ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF
SHOWERS THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT 5-10KT THROUGH
03/13Z THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT AND GUSTY...STILL FROM THE
EAST BUT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.FIRE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE UNDER BUILDING
RIDGE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 45-50 PERCENT AND WINDS BETWEEN
15 AND 20 MPH EXPECTED TODAY. SEE THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR
MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MARINE...CHOPPY SEAS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  79 /  30  30  30  20
STT  90  79  90  78 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 030138 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
932 PM AST SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS APPROACHING ACROSS USVI AND ANEDAGA PASSAGE
HAVE SO FAR BEEN NOT WIDESPREAD AND UNIMPRESSIVE THOUGH SOME ARE
THERE ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDER...CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THIS PLUME IS NEAR 2 INCHES AND POTENTIAL
FOR MORE SHOWERS CERTAINLY EXISTS AT ANY TIME THOUGH CLEARLY NO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS AVAILABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THE MOISTURE
IS COINCIDENT WITH SOME SAHARAN AIR. WRF SUGGESTS ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WITH NO MORE COVERAGE THAN SCATTERED
APPEARS RIGHT AND HAVE LEFT FORECAST GRIDS WITHOUT MODIFYING THEM.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER TIST TISX TJSJ
ARE POSSIBLE. AFTER 03/12Z DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH LESS SHRA ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED. DURING THE AFTERNOON SHRA ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN/INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR. WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KT LOCALLY HIGHER
IN SHRA...AFT 03/12Z INCREASING AT 10 TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE. STRONG WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT ARE
NOT MIXING TOWARDS SURFACE AND WILL BE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT FOR
THEM TO AS SAHARAN AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT. BUT LOCAL
WINDS TO 20 KT AND SEAS LOCALLY TO 6 FT...POTENTIALLY HIGHER IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM AST SUN AUG 2 2015/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ANOTHER TUTT LOW WILL RELOCATE OVER PR BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL EXIT THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE FORECAST
FOR THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED TODAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED EARLY IN THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PR AND THE USVI...THEN BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN PR. BY MID
AFTERNOON...MAX RAINFALL TOTALS WERE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS THE
BACK EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE USVI THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

STABLE AIR AND SAL IS EXPECTED TO FILL OVER THE REGION BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY...KEEPING THE CHANCES OF
RAIN LOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY THE SECOND PART OF THE
WEEK A WETTER PATTERN IS FORECAST...AS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND EARLY TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR/WESTERN PR AND TRADE SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN PR/USVI DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

AVIATION...SHRA W PR TIL 02/22Z. AS A RESULT...MVFR CIGS IN TJMZ
 TO VCTY SHRA.  FEW CU EN ROUTE BTW E PR AND USVI WITH PASSING SHRA.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THIS
EVENING GENERATING MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER TIST TISX TJSJ AND
TJPS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MARINE...NEAR SHORE BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 3-5 FEET ACROSS
THE USVI AND PR WATERS. EAST WINDS ARE AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
IN THE LOW 20S. SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AS TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO EXIT
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  79  90 /  40  30  30  30
STT  80  89  79  90 /  50  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

27/54




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 030138 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
932 PM AST SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS APPROACHING ACROSS USVI AND ANEDAGA PASSAGE
HAVE SO FAR BEEN NOT WIDESPREAD AND UNIMPRESSIVE THOUGH SOME ARE
THERE ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDER...CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THIS PLUME IS NEAR 2 INCHES AND POTENTIAL
FOR MORE SHOWERS CERTAINLY EXISTS AT ANY TIME THOUGH CLEARLY NO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS AVAILABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THE MOISTURE
IS COINCIDENT WITH SOME SAHARAN AIR. WRF SUGGESTS ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WITH NO MORE COVERAGE THAN SCATTERED
APPEARS RIGHT AND HAVE LEFT FORECAST GRIDS WITHOUT MODIFYING THEM.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER TIST TISX TJSJ
ARE POSSIBLE. AFTER 03/12Z DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH LESS SHRA ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED. DURING THE AFTERNOON SHRA ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN/INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR. WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KT LOCALLY HIGHER
IN SHRA...AFT 03/12Z INCREASING AT 10 TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE. STRONG WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT ARE
NOT MIXING TOWARDS SURFACE AND WILL BE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT FOR
THEM TO AS SAHARAN AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT. BUT LOCAL
WINDS TO 20 KT AND SEAS LOCALLY TO 6 FT...POTENTIALLY HIGHER IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM AST SUN AUG 2 2015/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ANOTHER TUTT LOW WILL RELOCATE OVER PR BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL EXIT THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE FORECAST
FOR THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED TODAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED EARLY IN THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PR AND THE USVI...THEN BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN PR. BY MID
AFTERNOON...MAX RAINFALL TOTALS WERE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS THE
BACK EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE USVI THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

STABLE AIR AND SAL IS EXPECTED TO FILL OVER THE REGION BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY...KEEPING THE CHANCES OF
RAIN LOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY THE SECOND PART OF THE
WEEK A WETTER PATTERN IS FORECAST...AS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND EARLY TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR/WESTERN PR AND TRADE SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN PR/USVI DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

AVIATION...SHRA W PR TIL 02/22Z. AS A RESULT...MVFR CIGS IN TJMZ
 TO VCTY SHRA.  FEW CU EN ROUTE BTW E PR AND USVI WITH PASSING SHRA.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THIS
EVENING GENERATING MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER TIST TISX TJSJ AND
TJPS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MARINE...NEAR SHORE BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 3-5 FEET ACROSS
THE USVI AND PR WATERS. EAST WINDS ARE AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
IN THE LOW 20S. SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AS TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO EXIT
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  79  90 /  40  30  30  30
STT  80  89  79  90 /  50  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

27/54





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 030132
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
932 PM AST SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS APPROACHING ACROSS USVI AND ANEDAGA PASSAGE
HAVE SO FAR BEEN NOT WIDESPREAD AND UNIMPRESSIVE THOUGH SOME ARE
THERE ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDER...CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THIS PLUME IS NEAR 2 INCHES AND POTENTIAL
FOR MORE SHOWERS CERTAINLY EXISTS AT ANY TIME THOUGH CLEARLY NO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS AVAILABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THE MOISTURE
IS COINCIDENT WITH SOME SAHARAN AIR. WRF SUGGESTS ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WITH NO MORE COVERAGE THAN SCATTERED
APPEARS RIGHT AND HAVE LEFT FORECAST GRIDS WITHOUT MODIFYING THEM.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR TONITE/MON THO MUST MONITOR FOR ANY
CLUSTER OF DVLPG SHRA/TSRA...LITTLE APPARENT ATTM. MVFR POSBL IN
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA FOR NOW. WIND BLW FL100 SE 15-25 KT INCR 18-40 KT
LATE TONITE/MON GRADUALLY BCMG E 18-32 KT MON NITE.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE. STRONG WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT ARE
NOT MIXING TOWARDS SURFACE AND WILL BE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT FOR
THEM TO AS SAHARAN AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT. BUT LOCAL
WINDS TO 20 KT AND SEAS LOCALLY TO 6 FT...POTENTIALLY HIGHER IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM AST SUN AUG 2 2015/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ANOTHER TUTT LOW WILL RELOCATE OVER PR BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL EXIT THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE FORECAST
FOR THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED TODAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED EARLY IN THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PR AND THE USVI...THEN BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN PR. BY MID
AFTERNOON...MAX RAINFALL TOTALS WERE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS THE
BACK EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE USVI THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

STABLE AIR AND SAL IS EXPECTED TO FILL OVER THE REGION BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY...KEEPING THE CHANCES OF
RAIN LOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY THE SECOND PART OF THE
WEEK A WETTER PATTERN IS FORECAST...AS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND EARLY TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR/WESTERN PR AND TRADE SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN PR/USVI DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

AVIATION...SHRA W PR TIL 02/22Z. AS A RESULT...MVFR CIGS IN TJMZ
 TO VCTY SHRA.  FEW CU EN ROUTE BTW E PR AND USVI WITH PASSING SHRA.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THIS
EVENING GENERATING MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER TIST TISX TJSJ AND
TJPS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MARINE...NEAR SHORE BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 3-5 FEET ACROSS
THE USVI AND PR WATERS. EAST WINDS ARE AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
IN THE LOW 20S. SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AS TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO EXIT
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  79  90 /  40  30  30  30
STT  80  89  79  90 /  50  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

27/54




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 030132
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
932 PM AST SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS APPROACHING ACROSS USVI AND ANEDAGA PASSAGE
HAVE SO FAR BEEN NOT WIDESPREAD AND UNIMPRESSIVE THOUGH SOME ARE
THERE ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDER...CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THIS PLUME IS NEAR 2 INCHES AND POTENTIAL
FOR MORE SHOWERS CERTAINLY EXISTS AT ANY TIME THOUGH CLEARLY NO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS AVAILABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THE MOISTURE
IS COINCIDENT WITH SOME SAHARAN AIR. WRF SUGGESTS ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WITH NO MORE COVERAGE THAN SCATTERED
APPEARS RIGHT AND HAVE LEFT FORECAST GRIDS WITHOUT MODIFYING THEM.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR TONITE/MON THO MUST MONITOR FOR ANY
CLUSTER OF DVLPG SHRA/TSRA...LITTLE APPARENT ATTM. MVFR POSBL IN
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA FOR NOW. WIND BLW FL100 SE 15-25 KT INCR 18-40 KT
LATE TONITE/MON GRADUALLY BCMG E 18-32 KT MON NITE.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE. STRONG WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT ARE
NOT MIXING TOWARDS SURFACE AND WILL BE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT FOR
THEM TO AS SAHARAN AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT. BUT LOCAL
WINDS TO 20 KT AND SEAS LOCALLY TO 6 FT...POTENTIALLY HIGHER IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM AST SUN AUG 2 2015/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ANOTHER TUTT LOW WILL RELOCATE OVER PR BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL EXIT THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE FORECAST
FOR THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED TODAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED EARLY IN THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PR AND THE USVI...THEN BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN PR. BY MID
AFTERNOON...MAX RAINFALL TOTALS WERE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS THE
BACK EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE USVI THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

STABLE AIR AND SAL IS EXPECTED TO FILL OVER THE REGION BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY...KEEPING THE CHANCES OF
RAIN LOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY THE SECOND PART OF THE
WEEK A WETTER PATTERN IS FORECAST...AS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND EARLY TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR/WESTERN PR AND TRADE SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN PR/USVI DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

AVIATION...SHRA W PR TIL 02/22Z. AS A RESULT...MVFR CIGS IN TJMZ
 TO VCTY SHRA.  FEW CU EN ROUTE BTW E PR AND USVI WITH PASSING SHRA.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THIS
EVENING GENERATING MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER TIST TISX TJSJ AND
TJPS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MARINE...NEAR SHORE BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 3-5 FEET ACROSS
THE USVI AND PR WATERS. EAST WINDS ARE AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
IN THE LOW 20S. SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AS TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO EXIT
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  79  90 /  40  30  30  30
STT  80  89  79  90 /  50  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

27/54





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 021921
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
321 PM AST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ANOTHER TUTT LOW WILL RELOCATE OVER PR BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL EXIT THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE FORECAST
FOR THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED TODAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED EARLY IN THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PR AND THE USVI...THEN BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN PR. BY MID
AFTERNOON...MAX RAINFALL TOTALS WERE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS THE
BACK EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE USVI THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

STABLE AIR AND SAL IS EXPECTED TO FILL OVER THE REGION BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY...KEEPING THE CHANCES OF
RAIN LOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY THE SECOND PART OF THE
WEEK A WETTER PATTERN IS FORECAST...AS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND EARLY TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR/WESTERN PR AND TRADE SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN PR/USVI DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA W PR TIL 02/22Z. AS A RESULT...MVFR CIGS IN TJMZ
 TO VCTY SHRA.  FEW CU EN ROUTE BTW E PR AND USVI WITH PASSING SHRA.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THIS
EVENING GENERATING MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER TIST TISX TJSJ AND
TJPS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...NEAR SHORE BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 3-5 FEET ACROSS
THE USVI AND PR WATERS. EAST WINDS ARE AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
IN THE LOW 20S. SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AS TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO EXIT
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  79  90 /  40  30  30  30
STT  80  89  79  90 /  50  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

10/13





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 021921
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
321 PM AST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ANOTHER TUTT LOW WILL RELOCATE OVER PR BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL EXIT THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE FORECAST
FOR THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED TODAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED EARLY IN THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PR AND THE USVI...THEN BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN PR. BY MID
AFTERNOON...MAX RAINFALL TOTALS WERE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS THE
BACK EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE USVI THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

STABLE AIR AND SAL IS EXPECTED TO FILL OVER THE REGION BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY...KEEPING THE CHANCES OF
RAIN LOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY THE SECOND PART OF THE
WEEK A WETTER PATTERN IS FORECAST...AS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND EARLY TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR/WESTERN PR AND TRADE SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN PR/USVI DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA W PR TIL 02/22Z. AS A RESULT...MVFR CIGS IN TJMZ
 TO VCTY SHRA.  FEW CU EN ROUTE BTW E PR AND USVI WITH PASSING SHRA.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THIS
EVENING GENERATING MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER TIST TISX TJSJ AND
TJPS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...NEAR SHORE BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 3-5 FEET ACROSS
THE USVI AND PR WATERS. EAST WINDS ARE AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
IN THE LOW 20S. SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AS TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO EXIT
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  79  90 /  40  30  30  30
STT  80  89  79  90 /  50  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

10/13




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020945
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
545 AM AST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW/TUTT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER TUTT LOW WILL RELOCATE OVER PR BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. AT LOW LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN
DUSTS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WETTER
TRADES WILL KEEP THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THE SECOND
PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE HAVE PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF USVI...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND EASTERN PR EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW/TUTT...RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS HAVE LIMITED THE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION.

MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...REACHING
A MAXIMUM OF 1.8 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 03/06Z. HOWEVER...
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
VORTICITY ADVECTION AT MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING QUICKLY...SO NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS WAVE.
AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL ADVECT OVER THE
PR/USVI OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEN...DRY AND DUSTY AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE. THIS DRIER AIR MAS WILL REDUCE
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION FROM
MONDAY EVENING TO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WETTER TRADE WINDS WILL
BRING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THE
SECOND PART OF THE WEEK...KEEPING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...BRF MVFR XPCTD IN SOME SHRA THIS MORNING BUT OVERALL
VFR CONT. SCT SHRA/TSRA CNTRL/WEST PR SUN AFT WI SOME OBSCD MTNS.
VFR WITH ISOLD SHRA ELSEWHERE. WIND BLW FL100 E 15-25 KT TODAY...
INCR LATE SUN NITE AND MON TO 20-40 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS OF 3-5 FEET ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FEET AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE UP TO 20KT. ALTHOUGH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  79  90 /  40  40  30  30
STT  80  89  79  90 /  50  50  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

71/11




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020945
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
545 AM AST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW/TUTT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER TUTT LOW WILL RELOCATE OVER PR BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. AT LOW LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN
DUSTS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WETTER
TRADES WILL KEEP THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THE SECOND
PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE HAVE PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF USVI...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND EASTERN PR EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW/TUTT...RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS HAVE LIMITED THE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION.

MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...REACHING
A MAXIMUM OF 1.8 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 03/06Z. HOWEVER...
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
VORTICITY ADVECTION AT MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING QUICKLY...SO NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS WAVE.
AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL ADVECT OVER THE
PR/USVI OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEN...DRY AND DUSTY AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE. THIS DRIER AIR MAS WILL REDUCE
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION FROM
MONDAY EVENING TO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WETTER TRADE WINDS WILL
BRING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THE
SECOND PART OF THE WEEK...KEEPING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...BRF MVFR XPCTD IN SOME SHRA THIS MORNING BUT OVERALL
VFR CONT. SCT SHRA/TSRA CNTRL/WEST PR SUN AFT WI SOME OBSCD MTNS.
VFR WITH ISOLD SHRA ELSEWHERE. WIND BLW FL100 E 15-25 KT TODAY...
INCR LATE SUN NITE AND MON TO 20-40 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS OF 3-5 FEET ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FEET AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE UP TO 20KT. ALTHOUGH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  79  90 /  40  40  30  30
STT  80  89  79  90 /  50  50  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

71/11





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