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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041926
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
326 PM AST SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...DRY ADVECTION KILLED OFF AN ALREADY SLIM CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR. GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER FALLING BELOW 1.3 INCHES TONIGHT/SUNDAY THOUGH A BRIEF
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT BRING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS. NEXT
DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO BE TUE AS A TROPICAL WAVE WILL QUICKLY BRUSH
BY THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY AS SHRA WILL BE ISOLD AT MOST AND
CIGS RATHER HIGH. WIND BLW FL180 E 24-38 KT BCMG ENE 20-32 KT SUN
AND E 14-26 KT SUN NITE.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO SUN BUT
FINALLY SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT BY MON. SEAS ACCORDINGLY WILL DROP MORE
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE...AND LAST WELL INTO THIS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT CAMP SANTIAGO AT 3PM WAS AT
40 PERCENT AND STILL QUITE BREEZY. POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS APPEARS HIGHER ON SUNDAY AS WIND FLOW WILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY MORE OFFSHORE AND DOWN THE MOUNTAIN IN SOME
LOCATIONS. SO FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR LATE MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  91 /  10  10  40  40
STT  80  90  79  89 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH COASTAL
     PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

VI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST.
     JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AST MONDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO
     17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

25/54





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041926
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
326 PM AST SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...DRY ADVECTION KILLED OFF AN ALREADY SLIM CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR. GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER FALLING BELOW 1.3 INCHES TONIGHT/SUNDAY THOUGH A BRIEF
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT BRING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS. NEXT
DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO BE TUE AS A TROPICAL WAVE WILL QUICKLY BRUSH
BY THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY AS SHRA WILL BE ISOLD AT MOST AND
CIGS RATHER HIGH. WIND BLW FL180 E 24-38 KT BCMG ENE 20-32 KT SUN
AND E 14-26 KT SUN NITE.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO SUN BUT
FINALLY SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT BY MON. SEAS ACCORDINGLY WILL DROP MORE
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE...AND LAST WELL INTO THIS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT CAMP SANTIAGO AT 3PM WAS AT
40 PERCENT AND STILL QUITE BREEZY. POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS APPEARS HIGHER ON SUNDAY AS WIND FLOW WILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY MORE OFFSHORE AND DOWN THE MOUNTAIN IN SOME
LOCATIONS. SO FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR LATE MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  91 /  10  10  40  40
STT  80  90  79  89 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH COASTAL
     PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

VI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST.
     JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AST MONDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO
     17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

25/54




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041612
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1212 PM AST SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE NECESSARY AS
THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS ARE IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS DRY AIR WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN SEEMS TO BE TONIGHT AS THE INVERSION IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY...HOWEVER...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LOW TONIGHT AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE AT AROUND THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACCORDING TO CLIMATOLOGY.

BREEZY AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
AT AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
TODAY.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT DUE TO SEAS UP
TO 7 FEET. IT IS BREEZY WITH WINDS AT AROUND 20 KNOTS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM AST SAT JUL 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A STRONG LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW LOCATED ALONG LONGITUDE
45 WEST OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

DISCUSSION...THE LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE...NOW LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
PRODUCED SOME PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THEM MOVED INLAND BUT WERE
LIGHT AND BRIEF AS THEY INTERACTED WITH THE LAND BREEZE
FLUCTUATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THE BRISK EASTERLIES COULD
STILL BRING PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN
PR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR TODAY...INDEPENDENCE DAY.
HOWEVER...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN AS THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER FILLS IN OVER THE REGION TODAY THRU THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF DUST PARTICLES WILL LIMIT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER
SOME SHOWERS MAY FORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED ALONG LONGITUDE 45 WEST OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY.
THE WAVE COULD BRING AN INCREASE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THRU 05/06Z. SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER TIST AND TJSJ
TIL 04/15Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT. SHRA WILL DIMINISH
FROM EAST TO WEST AFT 04/15Z AS SAHARAN DUST INCREASES. VSBYS TO
REMAIN P6SM BUT LESS THAN 12SM.

FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING (RFWSJU) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL
PLAINS AND MONA ISLANDS TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE RFWSJU FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT THIS MATTER.

MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL CREATE
BREEZY AND CHOPPY SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. MARINERS CAN
EXPECT SEAS UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
PASSAGES. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUES IN EFFECT.
IN ADDITION...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS BETWEEN
15 AND 20 KNOTS. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  80 /  20  20  20  40
STT  90  79  90  78 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH COASTAL
     PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHWEST-
     PONCE AND VICINITY-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ST CROIX.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST.
     JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

25/54





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041612
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1212 PM AST SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE NECESSARY AS
THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS ARE IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS DRY AIR WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN SEEMS TO BE TONIGHT AS THE INVERSION IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY...HOWEVER...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LOW TONIGHT AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE AT AROUND THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACCORDING TO CLIMATOLOGY.

BREEZY AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
AT AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
TODAY.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT DUE TO SEAS UP
TO 7 FEET. IT IS BREEZY WITH WINDS AT AROUND 20 KNOTS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM AST SAT JUL 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A STRONG LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW LOCATED ALONG LONGITUDE
45 WEST OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

DISCUSSION...THE LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE...NOW LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
PRODUCED SOME PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THEM MOVED INLAND BUT WERE
LIGHT AND BRIEF AS THEY INTERACTED WITH THE LAND BREEZE
FLUCTUATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THE BRISK EASTERLIES COULD
STILL BRING PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN
PR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR TODAY...INDEPENDENCE DAY.
HOWEVER...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN AS THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER FILLS IN OVER THE REGION TODAY THRU THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF DUST PARTICLES WILL LIMIT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER
SOME SHOWERS MAY FORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED ALONG LONGITUDE 45 WEST OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY.
THE WAVE COULD BRING AN INCREASE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THRU 05/06Z. SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER TIST AND TJSJ
TIL 04/15Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT. SHRA WILL DIMINISH
FROM EAST TO WEST AFT 04/15Z AS SAHARAN DUST INCREASES. VSBYS TO
REMAIN P6SM BUT LESS THAN 12SM.

FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING (RFWSJU) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL
PLAINS AND MONA ISLANDS TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE RFWSJU FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT THIS MATTER.

MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL CREATE
BREEZY AND CHOPPY SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. MARINERS CAN
EXPECT SEAS UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
PASSAGES. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUES IN EFFECT.
IN ADDITION...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS BETWEEN
15 AND 20 KNOTS. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  80 /  20  20  20  40
STT  90  79  90  78 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH COASTAL
     PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHWEST-
     PONCE AND VICINITY-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ST CROIX.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST.
     JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

25/54




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041011
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
611 AM AST SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A STRONG LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW LOCATED ALONG LONGITUDE
45 WEST OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE...NOW LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
PRODUCED SOME PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THEM MOVED INLAND BUT WERE
LIGHT AND BRIEF AS THEY INTERACTED WITH THE LAND BREEZE
FLUCTUATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THE BRISK EASTERLIES COULD
STILL BRING PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN
PR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR TODAY...INDEPENDENCE DAY.
HOWEVER...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN AS THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER FILLS IN OVER THE REGION TODAY THRU THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF DUST PARTICLES WILL LIMIT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER
SOME SHOWERS MAY FORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED ALONG LONGITUDE 45 WEST OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY.
THE WAVE COULD BRING AN INCREASE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THRU 05/06Z. SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER TIST AND TJSJ
TIL 04/15Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT. SHRA WILL DIMINISH
FROM EAST TO WEST AFT 04/15Z AS SAHARAN DUST INCREASES. VSBYS TO
REMAIN P6SM BUT LESS THAN 12SM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING (RFWSJU) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL
PLAINS AND MONA ISLANDS TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE RFWSJU FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT THIS MATTER.

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL CREATE
BREEZY AND CHOPPY SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. MARINERS CAN
EXPECT SEAS UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
PASSAGES. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUES IN EFFECT.
IN ADDITION...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS BETWEEN
15 AND 20 KNOTS. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  80 /  20  20  20  40
STT  90  79  90  78 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM AST THIS
     EVENING FOR SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

VI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST.
     JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
     NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

12/27





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041011
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
611 AM AST SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A STRONG LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW LOCATED ALONG LONGITUDE
45 WEST OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE...NOW LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
PRODUCED SOME PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THEM MOVED INLAND BUT WERE
LIGHT AND BRIEF AS THEY INTERACTED WITH THE LAND BREEZE
FLUCTUATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THE BRISK EASTERLIES COULD
STILL BRING PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN
PR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR TODAY...INDEPENDENCE DAY.
HOWEVER...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN AS THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER FILLS IN OVER THE REGION TODAY THRU THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF DUST PARTICLES WILL LIMIT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER
SOME SHOWERS MAY FORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED ALONG LONGITUDE 45 WEST OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY.
THE WAVE COULD BRING AN INCREASE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THRU 05/06Z. SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER TIST AND TJSJ
TIL 04/15Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT. SHRA WILL DIMINISH
FROM EAST TO WEST AFT 04/15Z AS SAHARAN DUST INCREASES. VSBYS TO
REMAIN P6SM BUT LESS THAN 12SM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING (RFWSJU) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL
PLAINS AND MONA ISLANDS TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE RFWSJU FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT THIS MATTER.

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL CREATE
BREEZY AND CHOPPY SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. MARINERS CAN
EXPECT SEAS UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
PASSAGES. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUES IN EFFECT.
IN ADDITION...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS BETWEEN
15 AND 20 KNOTS. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  80 /  20  20  20  40
STT  90  79  90  78 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM AST THIS
     EVENING FOR SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

VI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST.
     JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
     NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

12/27





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041011
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
611 AM AST SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A STRONG LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW LOCATED ALONG LONGITUDE
45 WEST OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE...NOW LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
PRODUCED SOME PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THEM MOVED INLAND BUT WERE
LIGHT AND BRIEF AS THEY INTERACTED WITH THE LAND BREEZE
FLUCTUATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THE BRISK EASTERLIES COULD
STILL BRING PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN
PR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR TODAY...INDEPENDENCE DAY.
HOWEVER...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN AS THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER FILLS IN OVER THE REGION TODAY THRU THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF DUST PARTICLES WILL LIMIT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER
SOME SHOWERS MAY FORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED ALONG LONGITUDE 45 WEST OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY.
THE WAVE COULD BRING AN INCREASE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THRU 05/06Z. SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER TIST AND TJSJ
TIL 04/15Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT. SHRA WILL DIMINISH
FROM EAST TO WEST AFT 04/15Z AS SAHARAN DUST INCREASES. VSBYS TO
REMAIN P6SM BUT LESS THAN 12SM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING (RFWSJU) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL
PLAINS AND MONA ISLANDS TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE RFWSJU FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT THIS MATTER.

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL CREATE
BREEZY AND CHOPPY SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. MARINERS CAN
EXPECT SEAS UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
PASSAGES. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUES IN EFFECT.
IN ADDITION...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS BETWEEN
15 AND 20 KNOTS. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  80 /  20  20  20  40
STT  90  79  90  78 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM AST THIS
     EVENING FOR SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

VI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST.
     JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
     NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

12/27




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 040254
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1054 PM AST FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN
PASSAGE TONIGHT...WITH A FEW STREAMING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
PR. HOWEVER...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE NOT SIGNIFICANT OVER
LAND AREAS AS OF 10 PM AST. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
BRISK EASTERLIES COULD STILL BRING PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN AS
SAHARAN AIR LAYER FILLS OVER THE REGION THRU THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. NO CHANGES MADE TO SHORT TERM GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT. SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER
TIST...TISX...AND TJSJ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST
AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE IN EFFECT DUE TO
OFFSHORE SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. NEARSHORE BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF
4 TO 6 FEET ACROSS PR AND USVI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM AST FRI JUL 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...WEAK TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL
CONTINUE TO WEST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE WAVE WILL BRING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...A FAIRLY DRY AND
STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST EMBEDDED WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DURING THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS
MAINLY SOUTH AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME WETTER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE BRUSH THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. AS SHOWN IN THE LATEST BLENDED PW ANALYSIS MOISTURE
HAVE INCREASED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IN RESPONSE TO THE WAVE.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A FEW
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE USVI AND PR
THE REST OF TODAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT
NORTHEAST OF PR COULD ENHANCE SOMEWHAT THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE. THEN...AEROSOL MODELS INDICATED
ADDITIONAL SAHARAN DUST MOVING INTO THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE...EXPECT LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION WILL PASS MAINLY
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS ON TUESDAY. IN
GENERAL...BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS SUGGESTED BY THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS W-PR AFTER 03/19Z CAUSING VCSH AROUND
TJMZ/TJBQ. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15-20KT AND GUSTY
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...DECREASING TO 10KT OR SO AFTER 04/00Z. TROPICAL
WAVE EXPECTED TO BRING SHRA ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...
CAUSING VCSH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS.

MARINE...BREEZY AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS OVER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
4-6 FEET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  90  79  90 /  40  40  20  20
STT  79  89  79  90 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...VI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR
     ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

71/13




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 031913
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL
CONTINUE TO WEST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE WAVE WILL BRING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...A FAIRLY DRY AND
STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST EMBEDDED WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DURING THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS
MAINLY SOUTH AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME WETTER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE BRUSH THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. AS SHOWN IN THE LATEST BLENDED PW ANALYSIS MOISTURE
HAVE INCREASED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IN RESPONSE TO THE WAVE.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A FEW
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE USVI AND PR
THE REST OF TODAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT
NORTHEAST OF PR COULD ENHANCE SOMEWHAT THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE. THEN...AEROSOL MODELS INDICATED
ADDITIONAL SAHARAN DUST MOVING INTO THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE...EXPECT LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION WILL PASS MAINLY
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS ON TUESDAY. IN
GENERAL...BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS SUGGESTED BY THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS W-PR AFTER 03/19Z CAUSING VCSH AROUND
TJMZ/TJBQ. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15-20KT AND GUSTY
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...DECREASING TO 10KT OR SO AFTER 04/00Z. TROPICAL
WAVE EXPECTED TO BRING SHRA ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...
CAUSING VCSH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS OVER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
4-6 FEET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  90  79 /  20  40  40  20
STT  90  79  89  78 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...VI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR
     ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

25/11




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 031913
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL
CONTINUE TO WEST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE WAVE WILL BRING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...A FAIRLY DRY AND
STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST EMBEDDED WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DURING THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS
MAINLY SOUTH AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME WETTER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE BRUSH THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. AS SHOWN IN THE LATEST BLENDED PW ANALYSIS MOISTURE
HAVE INCREASED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IN RESPONSE TO THE WAVE.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A FEW
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE USVI AND PR
THE REST OF TODAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT
NORTHEAST OF PR COULD ENHANCE SOMEWHAT THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE. THEN...AEROSOL MODELS INDICATED
ADDITIONAL SAHARAN DUST MOVING INTO THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE...EXPECT LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION WILL PASS MAINLY
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS ON TUESDAY. IN
GENERAL...BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS SUGGESTED BY THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS W-PR AFTER 03/19Z CAUSING VCSH AROUND
TJMZ/TJBQ. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15-20KT AND GUSTY
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...DECREASING TO 10KT OR SO AFTER 04/00Z. TROPICAL
WAVE EXPECTED TO BRING SHRA ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...
CAUSING VCSH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS OVER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
4-6 FEET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  90  79 /  20  40  40  20
STT  90  79  89  78 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...VI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR
     ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

25/11





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 031649
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1249 PM AST FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...THE MORNING WAS QUIET WEATHER-WISE WITH ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WHICH DISSIPATED LATE IN THE
MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER VERY LATE IN THE MORNING
A FEW CLOUDS STARTED DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN AND EASTERN PR
WITH PASSING CLOUDS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE USVI BUT THESE HAD
LITTLE TO NO RAIN.

BLENDED TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA IS TO BE EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER THIS MOISTURE IS NOT
THAT MUCH AS IT IS EXPECTED TO GO UP TO WHAT IS NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. THE TROPICAL WAVE AND MOST OF THE INSTABILITY
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE TUTT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. SO
WE MAY OBSERVE A FEW PASSING SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY
AREAS WITH VERY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH
VCSH ACROSS TIST/TISX AND TKPK/TNCM THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS W-PR THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING VCSH AROUND
TJMZ/TJBQ. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15-20KT AND GUSTY
TODAY...DECREASING TO 10KT OR SO AFTER 04/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT DUE TO SEAS UP
TO 7 FEET. NO CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM AST FRI JUL 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE
JUST NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN IT WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT OVER TO FLORIDA BY SATURDAY. AS IT DOES SO LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO AROUND 20 DEGREES
NORTH NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SUB TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WILL BE DIVIDED IN HALF NEAR 45 WEST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK
BY A STRONG LOW PRESSURE EAST OF MAINE. MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE
DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. A PATCH OF MOISTURE
WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS FORMED AFTER MIDNIGHT AND STREAMED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND INTO EASTERN PUERTO RICO
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MADE IT AS FAR WEST AS CAROLINA.
AMOUNTS WERE VERY LIGHT OWING TO SIZE AND SPEED AT WHICH THEY WERE
MOVING...ABOUT 28 KNOTS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY BUT THERE WAS NO CONSISTENCY IN WHERE THE
MODELS PLACED THE BEST PRECIPITATION OR HOW MUCH CHANCE WAS TO
OCCUR. SO BEST ESTIMATE WILL BE SCATTERED POPS FROM EL YUNQUE TO
WESTERN PUERTO RICO THOUGH AGAIN AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. MAIN PROBLEM WITH GENERATING
SHOWERS ARE THE DRY MID LEVELS THAT PERSIST...THE STRONG
WINDS...UP TO 31 KNOTS...IN AND NEAR A STRONG INVERSION AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES AND SO WILL
CONSIDER EVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO RATHER GENEROUS AND
SHOWERS SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET IN THE INTERIOR AND WEST. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT
CHANCES THERE AND ON THE NORTHEAST AND EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO
WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE RIDING
ON THE FRESH TRADE WINDS RIDES BY. DRYING BEGINS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN.

CURRENTLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES LITTLE NEXT WEEK AND HENCE
THE CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN...EVEN DURING THE WAVE ON TUESDAY...LESS
THAN USUAL. SAHARAN DUST WILL ALSO CONTINUE IN THE AREA. CURRENT
MODELS CONTINUE THIS PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK.

AVIATION...PASSING SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS
TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK DURING THE MORNING HRS. FOLLOWED BY
ISOLD/SCT SHRA AT TJBQ/TJMZ AFT 03/18Z. MTN OBSCURATIONS AND
+SHRA/SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR SOME OF THEM CAN REACH THE WESTERN TAF SITES.
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY.

MARINE...SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS WILL INCREASE UP TO 7 FEET OVER
THE WEEKEND AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE
EASTERN TIP OF AMZ715 AND AMZ725 SOUTH OF ANEGADA ISLAND SUNDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON MONDAY. UNTIL THEN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE OR WILL GO UP IN ALL OUTER
WATERS AND PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  90  79 /  20  40  40  20
STT  90  79  89  78 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...VI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR
     ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

25/11





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 031649
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1249 PM AST FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...THE MORNING WAS QUIET WEATHER-WISE WITH ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WHICH DISSIPATED LATE IN THE
MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER VERY LATE IN THE MORNING
A FEW CLOUDS STARTED DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN AND EASTERN PR
WITH PASSING CLOUDS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE USVI BUT THESE HAD
LITTLE TO NO RAIN.

BLENDED TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA IS TO BE EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER THIS MOISTURE IS NOT
THAT MUCH AS IT IS EXPECTED TO GO UP TO WHAT IS NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. THE TROPICAL WAVE AND MOST OF THE INSTABILITY
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE TUTT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. SO
WE MAY OBSERVE A FEW PASSING SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY
AREAS WITH VERY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH
VCSH ACROSS TIST/TISX AND TKPK/TNCM THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS W-PR THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING VCSH AROUND
TJMZ/TJBQ. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15-20KT AND GUSTY
TODAY...DECREASING TO 10KT OR SO AFTER 04/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT DUE TO SEAS UP
TO 7 FEET. NO CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM AST FRI JUL 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE
JUST NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN IT WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT OVER TO FLORIDA BY SATURDAY. AS IT DOES SO LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO AROUND 20 DEGREES
NORTH NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SUB TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WILL BE DIVIDED IN HALF NEAR 45 WEST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK
BY A STRONG LOW PRESSURE EAST OF MAINE. MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE
DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. A PATCH OF MOISTURE
WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS FORMED AFTER MIDNIGHT AND STREAMED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND INTO EASTERN PUERTO RICO
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MADE IT AS FAR WEST AS CAROLINA.
AMOUNTS WERE VERY LIGHT OWING TO SIZE AND SPEED AT WHICH THEY WERE
MOVING...ABOUT 28 KNOTS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY BUT THERE WAS NO CONSISTENCY IN WHERE THE
MODELS PLACED THE BEST PRECIPITATION OR HOW MUCH CHANCE WAS TO
OCCUR. SO BEST ESTIMATE WILL BE SCATTERED POPS FROM EL YUNQUE TO
WESTERN PUERTO RICO THOUGH AGAIN AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. MAIN PROBLEM WITH GENERATING
SHOWERS ARE THE DRY MID LEVELS THAT PERSIST...THE STRONG
WINDS...UP TO 31 KNOTS...IN AND NEAR A STRONG INVERSION AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES AND SO WILL
CONSIDER EVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO RATHER GENEROUS AND
SHOWERS SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET IN THE INTERIOR AND WEST. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT
CHANCES THERE AND ON THE NORTHEAST AND EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO
WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE RIDING
ON THE FRESH TRADE WINDS RIDES BY. DRYING BEGINS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN.

CURRENTLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES LITTLE NEXT WEEK AND HENCE
THE CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN...EVEN DURING THE WAVE ON TUESDAY...LESS
THAN USUAL. SAHARAN DUST WILL ALSO CONTINUE IN THE AREA. CURRENT
MODELS CONTINUE THIS PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK.

AVIATION...PASSING SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS
TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK DURING THE MORNING HRS. FOLLOWED BY
ISOLD/SCT SHRA AT TJBQ/TJMZ AFT 03/18Z. MTN OBSCURATIONS AND
+SHRA/SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR SOME OF THEM CAN REACH THE WESTERN TAF SITES.
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY.

MARINE...SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS WILL INCREASE UP TO 7 FEET OVER
THE WEEKEND AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE
EASTERN TIP OF AMZ715 AND AMZ725 SOUTH OF ANEGADA ISLAND SUNDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON MONDAY. UNTIL THEN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE OR WILL GO UP IN ALL OUTER
WATERS AND PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  90  79 /  20  40  40  20
STT  90  79  89  78 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...VI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR
     ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

25/11





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 031649
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1249 PM AST FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...THE MORNING WAS QUIET WEATHER-WISE WITH ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WHICH DISSIPATED LATE IN THE
MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER VERY LATE IN THE MORNING
A FEW CLOUDS STARTED DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN AND EASTERN PR
WITH PASSING CLOUDS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE USVI BUT THESE HAD
LITTLE TO NO RAIN.

BLENDED TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA IS TO BE EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER THIS MOISTURE IS NOT
THAT MUCH AS IT IS EXPECTED TO GO UP TO WHAT IS NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. THE TROPICAL WAVE AND MOST OF THE INSTABILITY
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE TUTT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. SO
WE MAY OBSERVE A FEW PASSING SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY
AREAS WITH VERY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH
VCSH ACROSS TIST/TISX AND TKPK/TNCM THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS W-PR THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING VCSH AROUND
TJMZ/TJBQ. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15-20KT AND GUSTY
TODAY...DECREASING TO 10KT OR SO AFTER 04/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT DUE TO SEAS UP
TO 7 FEET. NO CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM AST FRI JUL 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE
JUST NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN IT WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT OVER TO FLORIDA BY SATURDAY. AS IT DOES SO LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO AROUND 20 DEGREES
NORTH NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SUB TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WILL BE DIVIDED IN HALF NEAR 45 WEST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK
BY A STRONG LOW PRESSURE EAST OF MAINE. MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE
DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. A PATCH OF MOISTURE
WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS FORMED AFTER MIDNIGHT AND STREAMED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND INTO EASTERN PUERTO RICO
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MADE IT AS FAR WEST AS CAROLINA.
AMOUNTS WERE VERY LIGHT OWING TO SIZE AND SPEED AT WHICH THEY WERE
MOVING...ABOUT 28 KNOTS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY BUT THERE WAS NO CONSISTENCY IN WHERE THE
MODELS PLACED THE BEST PRECIPITATION OR HOW MUCH CHANCE WAS TO
OCCUR. SO BEST ESTIMATE WILL BE SCATTERED POPS FROM EL YUNQUE TO
WESTERN PUERTO RICO THOUGH AGAIN AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. MAIN PROBLEM WITH GENERATING
SHOWERS ARE THE DRY MID LEVELS THAT PERSIST...THE STRONG
WINDS...UP TO 31 KNOTS...IN AND NEAR A STRONG INVERSION AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES AND SO WILL
CONSIDER EVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO RATHER GENEROUS AND
SHOWERS SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET IN THE INTERIOR AND WEST. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT
CHANCES THERE AND ON THE NORTHEAST AND EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO
WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE RIDING
ON THE FRESH TRADE WINDS RIDES BY. DRYING BEGINS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN.

CURRENTLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES LITTLE NEXT WEEK AND HENCE
THE CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN...EVEN DURING THE WAVE ON TUESDAY...LESS
THAN USUAL. SAHARAN DUST WILL ALSO CONTINUE IN THE AREA. CURRENT
MODELS CONTINUE THIS PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK.

AVIATION...PASSING SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS
TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK DURING THE MORNING HRS. FOLLOWED BY
ISOLD/SCT SHRA AT TJBQ/TJMZ AFT 03/18Z. MTN OBSCURATIONS AND
+SHRA/SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR SOME OF THEM CAN REACH THE WESTERN TAF SITES.
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY.

MARINE...SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS WILL INCREASE UP TO 7 FEET OVER
THE WEEKEND AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE
EASTERN TIP OF AMZ715 AND AMZ725 SOUTH OF ANEGADA ISLAND SUNDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON MONDAY. UNTIL THEN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE OR WILL GO UP IN ALL OUTER
WATERS AND PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  90  79 /  20  40  40  20
STT  90  79  89  78 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...VI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR
     ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

25/11




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 030927
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE
JUST NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN IT WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT OVER TO FLORIDA BY SATURDAY. AS IT DOES SO LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO AROUND 20 DEGREES
NORTH NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SUB TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WILL BE DIVIDED IN HALF NEAR 45 WEST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK
BY A STRONG LOW PRESSURE EAST OF MAINE. MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE
DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. A PATCH OF MOISTURE
WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS FORMED AFTER MIDNIGHT AND STREAMED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND INTO EASTERN PUERTO RICO
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MADE IT AS FAR WEST AS CAROLINA.
AMOUNTS WERE VERY LIGHT OWING TO SIZE AND SPEED AT WHICH THEY WERE
MOVING...ABOUT 28 KNOTS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY BUT THERE WAS NO CONSISTENCY IN WHERE THE
MODELS PLACED THE BEST PRECIPITATION OR HOW MUCH CHANCE WAS TO
OCCUR. SO BEST ESTIMATE WILL BE SCATTERED POPS FROM EL YUNQUE TO
WESTERN PUERTO RICO THOUGH AGAIN AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. MAIN PROBLEM WITH GENERATING
SHOWERS ARE THE DRY MID LEVELS THAT PERSIST...THE STRONG
WINDS...UP TO 31 KNOTS...IN AND NEAR A STRONG INVERSION AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES AND SO WILL
CONSIDER EVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO RATHER GENEROUS AND
SHOWERS SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET IN THE INTERIOR AND WEST. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT
CHANCES THERE AND ON THE NORTHEAST AND EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO
WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE RIDING
ON THE FRESH TRADE WINDS RIDES BY. DRYING BEGINS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN.

CURRENTLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES LITTLE NEXT WEEK AND HENCE
THE CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN...EVEN DURING THE WAVE ON TUESDAY...LESS
THAN USUAL. SAHARAN DUST WILL ALSO CONTINUE IN THE AREA. CURRENT
MODELS CONTINUE THIS PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS
TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK DURING THE MORNING HRS. FOLLOWED BY
ISOLD/SCT SHRA AT TJBQ/TJMZ AFT 03/18Z. MTN OBSCURATIONS AND
+SHRA/SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR SOME OF THEM CAN REACH THE WESTERN TAF SITES.
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS WILL INCREASE UP TO 7 FEET OVER
THE WEEKEND AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE
EASTERN TIP OF AMZ715 AND AMZ725 SOUTH OF ANEGADA ISLAND SUNDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON MONDAY. UNTIL THEN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE OR WILL GO UP IN ALL OUTER
WATERS AND PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  90  79 /  20  40  40  20
STT  90  79  89  78 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST SATURDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST SATURDAY FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

27/12




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 030254
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1054 PM AST THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME HAZE DUE TO SAHARAN DUST
PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT. ONLY LIGHT AND BRIEF
SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. FOR THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY...NOT MUCH IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION.
THE LATEST TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING INDICATED BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND VERY DRY AIR BETWEEN 850-700MB. NO CHANGES
MADE TO SHORT TERM GRIDS AS FORECAST IN ON TRACK WITH ONLY
ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
AND FROM THE USVI TO THE EASTERN TIP OF PR.

&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...NEAR SHORE BUOYS ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE INDICATING SEAS
OF 3 TO NEAR 5 FEET AND EAST WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR
20 KT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM AST THU JUL 2 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT WILL LINGER NORTHWEST OF
PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF THE WEEK...MAINTAINING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
ISLANDS FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 59 WEST IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE LOCAL
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. MORE
SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

DISCUSSION...SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAZY
SKIES AS WELL AS LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA. THIS
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE LATE
FRIDAY WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK TROPICAL WAVE PASSES MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR JULY...THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT
WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...STILL EXPECTING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PR/USVI WITH THIS WEAK TROPICAL WAVE.
AEROSOL MODELS INDICATED ADDITIONAL SAHARAN DUST MOVING INTO THE
REGION BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE...
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE 4TH OF JULY
WEEKEND.

AVIATION...VFR THRU TONITE AS SAHARAN AIR CAUSES ISOLD SHRA TO HAVE
RELATIVELY HIGH CIGS. ISOLD/SCT SHRA THU BUT MOST WL PASS S OF
ISLANDS...WITH OUTSIDE CHC OF MVFR FRI AFT MAINLY AT TJSJ/TJBQ.
WIND FL020-FL180 E 18-35 KT BUT DECR AT NIGHT TO NR 10 KT AT TAF
SITES.

MARINE...BREEZY AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS OVER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
4-6 FEET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  78  90 /  10  20  40  40
STT  79  90  79  89 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM AST SATURDAY FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST SATURDAY FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

71/13





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 030254
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1054 PM AST THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME HAZE DUE TO SAHARAN DUST
PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT. ONLY LIGHT AND BRIEF
SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. FOR THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY...NOT MUCH IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION.
THE LATEST TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING INDICATED BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND VERY DRY AIR BETWEEN 850-700MB. NO CHANGES
MADE TO SHORT TERM GRIDS AS FORECAST IN ON TRACK WITH ONLY
ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
AND FROM THE USVI TO THE EASTERN TIP OF PR.

&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...NEAR SHORE BUOYS ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE INDICATING SEAS
OF 3 TO NEAR 5 FEET AND EAST WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR
20 KT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM AST THU JUL 2 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT WILL LINGER NORTHWEST OF
PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF THE WEEK...MAINTAINING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
ISLANDS FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 59 WEST IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE LOCAL
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. MORE
SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

DISCUSSION...SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAZY
SKIES AS WELL AS LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA. THIS
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE LATE
FRIDAY WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK TROPICAL WAVE PASSES MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR JULY...THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT
WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...STILL EXPECTING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PR/USVI WITH THIS WEAK TROPICAL WAVE.
AEROSOL MODELS INDICATED ADDITIONAL SAHARAN DUST MOVING INTO THE
REGION BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE...
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE 4TH OF JULY
WEEKEND.

AVIATION...VFR THRU TONITE AS SAHARAN AIR CAUSES ISOLD SHRA TO HAVE
RELATIVELY HIGH CIGS. ISOLD/SCT SHRA THU BUT MOST WL PASS S OF
ISLANDS...WITH OUTSIDE CHC OF MVFR FRI AFT MAINLY AT TJSJ/TJBQ.
WIND FL020-FL180 E 18-35 KT BUT DECR AT NIGHT TO NR 10 KT AT TAF
SITES.

MARINE...BREEZY AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS OVER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
4-6 FEET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  78  90 /  10  20  40  40
STT  79  90  79  89 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM AST SATURDAY FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST SATURDAY FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

71/13




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 021902
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT WILL LINGER NORTHWEST OF
PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF THE WEEK...MAINTAINING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
ISLANDS FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 59 WEST IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE LOCAL
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. MORE
SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAZY
SKIES AS WELL AS LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA. THIS
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE LATE
FRIDAY WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK TROPICAL WAVE PASSES MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR JULY...THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT
WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...STILL EXPECTING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PR/USVI WITH THIS WEAK TROPICAL WAVE.
AEROSOL MODELS INDICATED ADDITIONAL SAHARAN DUST MOVING INTO THE
REGION BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE...
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE 4TH OF JULY
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THRU TONITE AS SAHARAN AIR CAUSES ISOLD SHRA TO HAVE
RELATIVELY HIGH CIGS. ISOLD/SCT SHRA THU BUT MOST WL PASS S OF
ISLANDS...WITH OUTSIDE CHC OF MVFR FRI AFT MAINLY AT TJSJ/TJBQ.
WIND FL020-FL180 E 18-35 KT BUT DECR AT NIGHT TO NR 10 KT AT TAF
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS OVER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
4-6 FEET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  78  90 /  10  20  40  40
STT  79  90  79  89 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ST CROIX.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM AST SATURDAY FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST SATURDAY FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

54/11




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 021902
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT WILL LINGER NORTHWEST OF
PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF THE WEEK...MAINTAINING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
ISLANDS FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 59 WEST IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE LOCAL
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. MORE
SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAZY
SKIES AS WELL AS LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA. THIS
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE LATE
FRIDAY WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK TROPICAL WAVE PASSES MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR JULY...THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT
WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...STILL EXPECTING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PR/USVI WITH THIS WEAK TROPICAL WAVE.
AEROSOL MODELS INDICATED ADDITIONAL SAHARAN DUST MOVING INTO THE
REGION BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE...
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE 4TH OF JULY
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THRU TONITE AS SAHARAN AIR CAUSES ISOLD SHRA TO HAVE
RELATIVELY HIGH CIGS. ISOLD/SCT SHRA THU BUT MOST WL PASS S OF
ISLANDS...WITH OUTSIDE CHC OF MVFR FRI AFT MAINLY AT TJSJ/TJBQ.
WIND FL020-FL180 E 18-35 KT BUT DECR AT NIGHT TO NR 10 KT AT TAF
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS OVER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
4-6 FEET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  78  90 /  10  20  40  40
STT  79  90  79  89 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ST CROIX.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM AST SATURDAY FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST SATURDAY FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

54/11





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 021456
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1056 AM AST THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...DEEP LAYER OF SAHARAN AIR EVIDENT ON 12Z TJSJ AND
MACM SOUNDINGS 5-15 KFT WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET
JUST BELOW IT THAN GFS EXPECTED...PEAKING AT 28-30 KT. RADAR
SUGGESTS THAT JET IS BEGINNING TO MIX DOWNARD WHICH WILL KEEP LAND
SURFACES BREEZY. SUBSTANTIAL INVERSION AT THE BASE OF THE SAHARAN
AIR WOULD REQUIRE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REACH WELL INTO THE 90S
TO INITIATE CONVECTION ON LOWER ELEVATIONS THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR INTERIOR AND WEST PR THIS AFTERNOON DUE THE
ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE.

WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO FORECASTS/GRIDS AS THEY SHOW APPROPRIATE
DRYNESS AND BREEZES. DEVELOPING CLOUDS AS WE HAVE NOW WILL LIMIT
HEATING A LITTLE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THRU AT LEAST TONITE AS SAHARAN AIR WILL CAUSE
EVEN MOST OF THE ISOLD SHRA TO HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH CIGS. WIND TO
GUST CLOSE TO 30 KT SOME LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY LIKELY
AT TJBQ/TJSJ/TISX.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES TO CONTINUE TODAY AND DO NOT
BELIEVE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL KICK SUSTAINED WINDS TO HIGHER
THAN THE 21 KNOTS SHOWN IN GRIDS THOUGH SOME GUSTS WILL REACH 30
KNOTS. WILL ADJUST GUSTS UPWARD SOMEWHAT. NO ADJUSTMENT IN SEAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM AST THU JUL 2 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW ALONG 70 NORTH NORTH OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL SHIFT NORTH ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN ABOUT
500 MILES NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC UNTIL NEXT THURSDAY.
FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST UNTIL MONDAY WHILE
WEAKENING.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT
TO NORTH OF THE AREA BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS... A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING BRINGING SOME MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. CONDITIONS BECOME DRY AGAIN ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK...THEN IT RETREATS INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC LEAVING ONLY A
WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC INTO FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW TRADE
WINDS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT LATE NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...VERY SMALL AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SHOWERS WERE SEEN
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS BUT VERY FEW MADE IT OVER
LAND IN EITHER PUERTO RICO OR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
MORNING AND NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED. MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AND
INTERIOR PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
SAHARAN DUST IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
REINFORCEMENT TO THE DRIER AIR NOW IN PLACE. ON FRIDAY EVENING A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME BETTER MOISTURE
BEHIND IT...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND LIGHTER THAN
BROUGHT BY THE WAVE THAT PASSED THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THIS WEEK. MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH EVEN BELOW PRESENT LEVELS ON
SUNDAY. BY MONDAY MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND ON TUESDAY
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD EXCEED 1.9 INCHES IF ONLY FOR A FEW
HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. HENCE DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS ONLY LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED. THE MOISTURE ON MONDAY WILL COME
FROM THE NORTHEAST AND IS NOT ACTUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY SO IT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO MORE. AS IT IS A NARROW PULSE THE GFS IS
INDICATING LITTLE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS THEN...BUT SOME MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY THERE.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THRU
THE FCST PERIOD. HAZY SKIES EXPECTED DUE TO SAHARAN DUST BUT VSBY
SHOULD REMAIN P6SM. DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS
MAY FORM MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR. SFC EAST WINDS 10-
15 KT EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING AT 15 TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS AFTER 02/12Z.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF THE MONA CHANNEL AND CARIBBEAN LOCAL OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY SUCH THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED IN ALL OUTER WATERS AND PASSAGES BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
AFTER SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  79  89  78 /   0  10  20  40
STT  90  79  90  79 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ST CROIX.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM AST SATURDAY FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST SATURDAY FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

54/11




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020938
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
538 AM AST THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW ALONG 70 NORTH NORTH OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL SHIFT NORTH ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN ABOUT
500 MILES NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC UNTIL NEXT THURSDAY.
FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST UNTIL MONDAY WHILE
WEAKENING.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT
TO NORTH OF THE AREA BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS... A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING BRINGING SOME MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. CONDITIONS BECOME DRY AGAIN ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK...THEN IT RETREATS INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC LEAVING ONLY A
WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC INTO FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW TRADE
WINDS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY SMALL AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SHOWERS WERE SEEN
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS BUT VERY FEW MADE IT OVER
LAND IN EITHER PUERTO RICO OR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
MORNING AND NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED. MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AND
INTERIOR PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
SAHARAN DUST IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
REINFORCEMENT TO THE DRIER AIR NOW IN PLACE. ON FRIDAY EVENING A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME BETTER MOISTURE
BEHIND IT...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND LIGHTER THAN
BROUGHT BY THE WAVE THAT PASSED THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THIS WEEK. MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH EVEN BELOW PRESENT LEVELS ON
SUNDAY. BY MONDAY MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND ON TUESDAY
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD EXCEED 1.9 INCHES IF ONLY FOR A FEW
HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. HENCE DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS ONLY LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED. THE MOISTURE ON MONDAY WILL COME
FROM THE NORTHEAST AND IS NOT ACTUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY SO IT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO MORE. AS IT IS A NARROW PULSE THE GFS IS
INDICATING LITTLE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS THEN...BUT SOME MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THRU
THE FCST PERIOD. HAZY SKIES EXPECTED DUE TO SAHARAN DUST BUT VSBY
SHOULD REMAIN P6SM. DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS
MAY FORM MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR. SFC EAST WINDS 10-
15 KT EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING AT 15 TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS AFTER 02/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF THE MONA CHANNEL AND CARIBBEAN LOCAL OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY SUCH THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED IN ALL OUTER WATERS AND PASSAGES BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
AFTER SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  79  89  78 /   0  10  20  40
STT  90  79  90  79 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM AST SATURDAY FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST SATURDAY FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

27/12




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020938
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
538 AM AST THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW ALONG 70 NORTH NORTH OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL SHIFT NORTH ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN ABOUT
500 MILES NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC UNTIL NEXT THURSDAY.
FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST UNTIL MONDAY WHILE
WEAKENING.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT
TO NORTH OF THE AREA BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS... A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING BRINGING SOME MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. CONDITIONS BECOME DRY AGAIN ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK...THEN IT RETREATS INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC LEAVING ONLY A
WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC INTO FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW TRADE
WINDS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY SMALL AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SHOWERS WERE SEEN
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS BUT VERY FEW MADE IT OVER
LAND IN EITHER PUERTO RICO OR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
MORNING AND NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED. MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AND
INTERIOR PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
SAHARAN DUST IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
REINFORCEMENT TO THE DRIER AIR NOW IN PLACE. ON FRIDAY EVENING A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME BETTER MOISTURE
BEHIND IT...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND LIGHTER THAN
BROUGHT BY THE WAVE THAT PASSED THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THIS WEEK. MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH EVEN BELOW PRESENT LEVELS ON
SUNDAY. BY MONDAY MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND ON TUESDAY
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD EXCEED 1.9 INCHES IF ONLY FOR A FEW
HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. HENCE DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS ONLY LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED. THE MOISTURE ON MONDAY WILL COME
FROM THE NORTHEAST AND IS NOT ACTUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY SO IT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO MORE. AS IT IS A NARROW PULSE THE GFS IS
INDICATING LITTLE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS THEN...BUT SOME MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THRU
THE FCST PERIOD. HAZY SKIES EXPECTED DUE TO SAHARAN DUST BUT VSBY
SHOULD REMAIN P6SM. DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS
MAY FORM MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR. SFC EAST WINDS 10-
15 KT EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING AT 15 TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS AFTER 02/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF THE MONA CHANNEL AND CARIBBEAN LOCAL OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY SUCH THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED IN ALL OUTER WATERS AND PASSAGES BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
AFTER SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  79  89  78 /   0  10  20  40
STT  90  79  90  79 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM AST SATURDAY FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST SATURDAY FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

27/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020250
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1050 PM AST WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...VERY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. LATEST 02/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.6 INCHES WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY
LOWER THAN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WAS 2.04 INCHES. SAHARAN DUST IS
ALREADY AFFECTING THE REGION. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
TOMORROW. NO CHANGES TO FORECAST GRIDS NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THRU THE FCST PERIOD. HAZY SKIES EXPECTED DUE TO SAHARAN DUST BUT
VSBY SHOULD REMAIN P6SM. SFC EAST WINDS 10-15 KT OVERNIGHT WITH
LAND BREEZE VARIATIONS. HOWEVER...WINDS BLO FL200 WILL CONTINUE
BETWEEN 15-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM AST WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...LAYER OF SAHARAN AIR BETWEEN 850 MB AND 550 MB HAD
MOVED OVER MACM BY 12Z THIS MORNING AND HELPED REDUCE OR END THE
SHOWERS TODAY SOONER THAN EXPECTED. HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN PR
ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO VERY LITTLE CONVECTION TO OCCUR THERE SO FAR.
THIS LAYER CONTINUES TO PROGRESS WESTWARD AND INCREASINGLY WILL
SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS THE REST OF TODAY.

REDUCED THE SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT TO NO MORE THAN ISOLATED
THOUGH THE 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WE WILL HAVE WILL BE
MAINLY CONCENTRATED BELOW 850 MB AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS FOR WINDWARD LOCATIONS.

NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES FRI/FRI NIGHT ACCORDING TO
GFS AS A WAVE BRUSHES PAST BUT A BETTER CHANCE NEXT TUE/WED AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ENVELOPE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH AROUND 2 INCHES
PRECIPITABLE WATER.

AVIATION...SAHARAN AIR WILL KEEP SHRA MINIMAL THRU THU...AND CAUSE
SOME FALSE CIGS AT TIST/TISX. VFR XCP PSBL MVFR IN SHRA AT TJMZ
THIS AFT AND THU AFT. WIND BLW FL180 E 15-25 KT STRENGTHENING
16-35 KT THU NITE/FRI.

MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED IN NEAR TERM BUT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE OFFSHORE IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE BUT
GREATER CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI. SMALL CRAFT FOR OFFSHORE CONTINUES
AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  89 /  10  10  10  40
STT  79  89  79  90 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST THURSDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

13/71




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020250
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1050 PM AST WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...VERY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. LATEST 02/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.6 INCHES WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY
LOWER THAN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WAS 2.04 INCHES. SAHARAN DUST IS
ALREADY AFFECTING THE REGION. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
TOMORROW. NO CHANGES TO FORECAST GRIDS NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THRU THE FCST PERIOD. HAZY SKIES EXPECTED DUE TO SAHARAN DUST BUT
VSBY SHOULD REMAIN P6SM. SFC EAST WINDS 10-15 KT OVERNIGHT WITH
LAND BREEZE VARIATIONS. HOWEVER...WINDS BLO FL200 WILL CONTINUE
BETWEEN 15-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM AST WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...LAYER OF SAHARAN AIR BETWEEN 850 MB AND 550 MB HAD
MOVED OVER MACM BY 12Z THIS MORNING AND HELPED REDUCE OR END THE
SHOWERS TODAY SOONER THAN EXPECTED. HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN PR
ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO VERY LITTLE CONVECTION TO OCCUR THERE SO FAR.
THIS LAYER CONTINUES TO PROGRESS WESTWARD AND INCREASINGLY WILL
SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS THE REST OF TODAY.

REDUCED THE SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT TO NO MORE THAN ISOLATED
THOUGH THE 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WE WILL HAVE WILL BE
MAINLY CONCENTRATED BELOW 850 MB AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS FOR WINDWARD LOCATIONS.

NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES FRI/FRI NIGHT ACCORDING TO
GFS AS A WAVE BRUSHES PAST BUT A BETTER CHANCE NEXT TUE/WED AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ENVELOPE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH AROUND 2 INCHES
PRECIPITABLE WATER.

AVIATION...SAHARAN AIR WILL KEEP SHRA MINIMAL THRU THU...AND CAUSE
SOME FALSE CIGS AT TIST/TISX. VFR XCP PSBL MVFR IN SHRA AT TJMZ
THIS AFT AND THU AFT. WIND BLW FL180 E 15-25 KT STRENGTHENING
16-35 KT THU NITE/FRI.

MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED IN NEAR TERM BUT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE OFFSHORE IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE BUT
GREATER CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI. SMALL CRAFT FOR OFFSHORE CONTINUES
AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  89 /  10  10  10  40
STT  79  89  79  90 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST THURSDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

13/71





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020250
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1050 PM AST WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...VERY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. LATEST 02/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.6 INCHES WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY
LOWER THAN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WAS 2.04 INCHES. SAHARAN DUST IS
ALREADY AFFECTING THE REGION. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
TOMORROW. NO CHANGES TO FORECAST GRIDS NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THRU THE FCST PERIOD. HAZY SKIES EXPECTED DUE TO SAHARAN DUST BUT
VSBY SHOULD REMAIN P6SM. SFC EAST WINDS 10-15 KT OVERNIGHT WITH
LAND BREEZE VARIATIONS. HOWEVER...WINDS BLO FL200 WILL CONTINUE
BETWEEN 15-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM AST WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...LAYER OF SAHARAN AIR BETWEEN 850 MB AND 550 MB HAD
MOVED OVER MACM BY 12Z THIS MORNING AND HELPED REDUCE OR END THE
SHOWERS TODAY SOONER THAN EXPECTED. HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN PR
ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO VERY LITTLE CONVECTION TO OCCUR THERE SO FAR.
THIS LAYER CONTINUES TO PROGRESS WESTWARD AND INCREASINGLY WILL
SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS THE REST OF TODAY.

REDUCED THE SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT TO NO MORE THAN ISOLATED
THOUGH THE 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WE WILL HAVE WILL BE
MAINLY CONCENTRATED BELOW 850 MB AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS FOR WINDWARD LOCATIONS.

NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES FRI/FRI NIGHT ACCORDING TO
GFS AS A WAVE BRUSHES PAST BUT A BETTER CHANCE NEXT TUE/WED AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ENVELOPE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH AROUND 2 INCHES
PRECIPITABLE WATER.

AVIATION...SAHARAN AIR WILL KEEP SHRA MINIMAL THRU THU...AND CAUSE
SOME FALSE CIGS AT TIST/TISX. VFR XCP PSBL MVFR IN SHRA AT TJMZ
THIS AFT AND THU AFT. WIND BLW FL180 E 15-25 KT STRENGTHENING
16-35 KT THU NITE/FRI.

MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED IN NEAR TERM BUT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE OFFSHORE IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE BUT
GREATER CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI. SMALL CRAFT FOR OFFSHORE CONTINUES
AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  89 /  10  10  10  40
STT  79  89  79  90 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST THURSDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

13/71





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020250
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1050 PM AST WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...VERY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. LATEST 02/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.6 INCHES WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY
LOWER THAN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WAS 2.04 INCHES. SAHARAN DUST IS
ALREADY AFFECTING THE REGION. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
TOMORROW. NO CHANGES TO FORECAST GRIDS NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THRU THE FCST PERIOD. HAZY SKIES EXPECTED DUE TO SAHARAN DUST BUT
VSBY SHOULD REMAIN P6SM. SFC EAST WINDS 10-15 KT OVERNIGHT WITH
LAND BREEZE VARIATIONS. HOWEVER...WINDS BLO FL200 WILL CONTINUE
BETWEEN 15-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM AST WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...LAYER OF SAHARAN AIR BETWEEN 850 MB AND 550 MB HAD
MOVED OVER MACM BY 12Z THIS MORNING AND HELPED REDUCE OR END THE
SHOWERS TODAY SOONER THAN EXPECTED. HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN PR
ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO VERY LITTLE CONVECTION TO OCCUR THERE SO FAR.
THIS LAYER CONTINUES TO PROGRESS WESTWARD AND INCREASINGLY WILL
SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS THE REST OF TODAY.

REDUCED THE SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT TO NO MORE THAN ISOLATED
THOUGH THE 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WE WILL HAVE WILL BE
MAINLY CONCENTRATED BELOW 850 MB AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS FOR WINDWARD LOCATIONS.

NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES FRI/FRI NIGHT ACCORDING TO
GFS AS A WAVE BRUSHES PAST BUT A BETTER CHANCE NEXT TUE/WED AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ENVELOPE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH AROUND 2 INCHES
PRECIPITABLE WATER.

AVIATION...SAHARAN AIR WILL KEEP SHRA MINIMAL THRU THU...AND CAUSE
SOME FALSE CIGS AT TIST/TISX. VFR XCP PSBL MVFR IN SHRA AT TJMZ
THIS AFT AND THU AFT. WIND BLW FL180 E 15-25 KT STRENGTHENING
16-35 KT THU NITE/FRI.

MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED IN NEAR TERM BUT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE OFFSHORE IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE BUT
GREATER CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI. SMALL CRAFT FOR OFFSHORE CONTINUES
AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  89 /  10  10  10  40
STT  79  89  79  90 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST THURSDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

13/71




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