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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 061422
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1022 AM AST WED MAY 6 2015

.UPDATE...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY A COUPLE OF VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS MORNING. NOT PRECIPITATION
WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS AND ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SO FAR THIS MORNING. A GENERALLY FAIR...MAINLY STABLE AND HAZY
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL EFFECT TO PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES. BY THE EARLY EVENING...MOST OF THE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. HAZY SKIES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. LOOKING AHEAD...COMPUTER
MODELS INDICATED THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK... INCREASING THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AFTER 06/18Z IN THE VICINITY OF TJBQ AND TJMZ. A SAHARAN AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA...PRODUCING HAZY SKIES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SMALL CRAFT
ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TODAY
FOR SOUTHERN PR...VIEQUES AND ST CROIX. A RED FLAG WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS UNTIL 5 PM. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WE
NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AND DECIDE WHETHER A RED FLAG WARNING IS
WARRANTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM AST WED MAY 6 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TODAY AS
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. SAL WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND MAINTAIN MUCH DRYER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. AS UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TODAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO WEAKEN BUT EVENTUALLY COLLAPSE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
BAHAMAS MOVES EWD. THE END RESULT IS A TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND BETTER MOISTURE FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FVRBL FOR DEEP CONVECTION EARLY TO MID
WEEK...THE MODELS HOLD ON TO SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND FOCUS MUCH
OF THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL NORTH OF 20N. EXPECT MAINLY SCT
AFTERNOON DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVR NCNTRL/NW PR AS STEERING
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SO NO DROUGHT BUSTING RAINS ARE
EXPECTED BUT SOME RAIN IS BETTER THAN NO RAIN.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HZ DUE SAHARAN DUST BUT VSBY WILL REMAIN
P6SM. EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED AT 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KT.

MARINE...WINDS 20KT AND SEAS 4-6 FT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...VERY NEAR RED FLAG YESTERDAY AT CAMP SANTIAGO AND
RED FLAG AT VIEQUES. CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TODAY WITH
PROBABLY LOWER RH`S BUT UNCERTAINTY LINGERS WITH RESPECT TO
WINDS. 06/00Z JSJ RAOB SHOWED A DIMINISHING TREND IN 925 MB WINDS
FROM 12Z AND WEAKER THAN FCST BY GFS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS AND DECIDE WHETHER A RED FLAG WARNING IS WARRANTED. SIMILAR
AGAIN ON THU WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FRI AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND MITIGATING THE FIRE DANGER SOMEWHAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  91  79 /   0   0  10  10
STT  88  79  87  79 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CULEBRA-SOUTH
     COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

VI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ST CROIX.

AM...     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR MONA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

72/54





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 060819
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
419 AM AST WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TODAY AS
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. SAL WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND MAINTAIN MUCH DRYER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. AS UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TODAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO WEAKEN BUT EVENTUALLY COLLAPSE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
BAHAMAS MOVES EWD. THE END RESULT IS A TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND BETTER MOISTURE FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FVRBL FOR DEEP CONVECTION EARLY TO MID
WEEK...THE MODELS HOLD ON TO SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND FOCUS MUCH
OF THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL NORTH OF 20N. EXPECT MAINLY SCT
AFTERNOON DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVR NCNTRL/NW PR AS STEERING
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SO NO DROUGHT BUSTING RAINS ARE
EXPECTED BUT SOME RAIN IS BETTER THAN NO RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HZ DUE SAHARAN DUST BUT VSBY WILL REMAIN
P6SM. EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED AT 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 20KT AND SEAS 4-6 FT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY NEAR RED FLAG YESTERDAY AT CAMP SANTIAGO AND
RED FLAG AT VIEQUES. CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TODAY WITH
PROBABLY LOWER RH`S BUT UNCERTAINTY LINGERS WITH RESPECT TO
WINDS. 06/00Z JSJ RAOB SHOWED A DIMINISHING TREND IN 925 MB WINDS
FROM 12Z AND WEAKER THAN FCST BY GFS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS AND DECIDE WHETHER A RED FLAG WARNING IS WARRANTED. SIMILAR
AGAIN ON THU WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FRI AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND MITIGATING THE FIRE DANGER SOMEWHAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  91  79 /   0   0  10  10
STT  88  79  87  79 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR MONA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

13/64





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 060819
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
419 AM AST WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TODAY AS
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. SAL WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND MAINTAIN MUCH DRYER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. AS UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TODAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO WEAKEN BUT EVENTUALLY COLLAPSE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
BAHAMAS MOVES EWD. THE END RESULT IS A TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND BETTER MOISTURE FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FVRBL FOR DEEP CONVECTION EARLY TO MID
WEEK...THE MODELS HOLD ON TO SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND FOCUS MUCH
OF THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL NORTH OF 20N. EXPECT MAINLY SCT
AFTERNOON DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVR NCNTRL/NW PR AS STEERING
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SO NO DROUGHT BUSTING RAINS ARE
EXPECTED BUT SOME RAIN IS BETTER THAN NO RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HZ DUE SAHARAN DUST BUT VSBY WILL REMAIN
P6SM. EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED AT 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 20KT AND SEAS 4-6 FT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY NEAR RED FLAG YESTERDAY AT CAMP SANTIAGO AND
RED FLAG AT VIEQUES. CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TODAY WITH
PROBABLY LOWER RH`S BUT UNCERTAINTY LINGERS WITH RESPECT TO
WINDS. 06/00Z JSJ RAOB SHOWED A DIMINISHING TREND IN 925 MB WINDS
FROM 12Z AND WEAKER THAN FCST BY GFS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS AND DECIDE WHETHER A RED FLAG WARNING IS WARRANTED. SIMILAR
AGAIN ON THU WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FRI AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND MITIGATING THE FIRE DANGER SOMEWHAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  91  79 /   0   0  10  10
STT  88  79  87  79 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR MONA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

13/64





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 060819
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
419 AM AST WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TODAY AS
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. SAL WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND MAINTAIN MUCH DRYER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. AS UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TODAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO WEAKEN BUT EVENTUALLY COLLAPSE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
BAHAMAS MOVES EWD. THE END RESULT IS A TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND BETTER MOISTURE FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FVRBL FOR DEEP CONVECTION EARLY TO MID
WEEK...THE MODELS HOLD ON TO SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND FOCUS MUCH
OF THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL NORTH OF 20N. EXPECT MAINLY SCT
AFTERNOON DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVR NCNTRL/NW PR AS STEERING
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SO NO DROUGHT BUSTING RAINS ARE
EXPECTED BUT SOME RAIN IS BETTER THAN NO RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HZ DUE SAHARAN DUST BUT VSBY WILL REMAIN
P6SM. EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED AT 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 20KT AND SEAS 4-6 FT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY NEAR RED FLAG YESTERDAY AT CAMP SANTIAGO AND
RED FLAG AT VIEQUES. CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TODAY WITH
PROBABLY LOWER RH`S BUT UNCERTAINTY LINGERS WITH RESPECT TO
WINDS. 06/00Z JSJ RAOB SHOWED A DIMINISHING TREND IN 925 MB WINDS
FROM 12Z AND WEAKER THAN FCST BY GFS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS AND DECIDE WHETHER A RED FLAG WARNING IS WARRANTED. SIMILAR
AGAIN ON THU WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FRI AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND MITIGATING THE FIRE DANGER SOMEWHAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  91  79 /   0   0  10  10
STT  88  79  87  79 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR MONA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

13/64




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 060819
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
419 AM AST WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TODAY AS
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. SAL WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND MAINTAIN MUCH DRYER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. AS UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TODAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO WEAKEN BUT EVENTUALLY COLLAPSE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
BAHAMAS MOVES EWD. THE END RESULT IS A TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND BETTER MOISTURE FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FVRBL FOR DEEP CONVECTION EARLY TO MID
WEEK...THE MODELS HOLD ON TO SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND FOCUS MUCH
OF THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL NORTH OF 20N. EXPECT MAINLY SCT
AFTERNOON DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVR NCNTRL/NW PR AS STEERING
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SO NO DROUGHT BUSTING RAINS ARE
EXPECTED BUT SOME RAIN IS BETTER THAN NO RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HZ DUE SAHARAN DUST BUT VSBY WILL REMAIN
P6SM. EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED AT 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 20KT AND SEAS 4-6 FT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY NEAR RED FLAG YESTERDAY AT CAMP SANTIAGO AND
RED FLAG AT VIEQUES. CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TODAY WITH
PROBABLY LOWER RH`S BUT UNCERTAINTY LINGERS WITH RESPECT TO
WINDS. 06/00Z JSJ RAOB SHOWED A DIMINISHING TREND IN 925 MB WINDS
FROM 12Z AND WEAKER THAN FCST BY GFS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS AND DECIDE WHETHER A RED FLAG WARNING IS WARRANTED. SIMILAR
AGAIN ON THU WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FRI AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND MITIGATING THE FIRE DANGER SOMEWHAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  91  79 /   0   0  10  10
STT  88  79  87  79 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR MONA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

13/64




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 060300
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1100 PM AST TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...SHORT WAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE REGION AND THE
GRADUALLY ERODING RIDGE ALOFT ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS WERE MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND UTUADO...LARES AND SAN
SEBASTIAN. BY LATE EVENING...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAD DISSIPATED
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT NO
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND... AS A SLOT OF EVEN DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. RECENT TJSJ 06/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING AS WELL
AS SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCE BOTH SUGGESTS PWAT
VALUES NOW NEAR AN INCH OR SO ACROSS THE REGION...WITH VERY DRY
CONDITIONS ALOFT...AND ONLY A FEW SHALLOW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECTED ANOTHER
HOT AND FAIRLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST INTERIOR
SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. STILL NOW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN AT LEAST UNTIL THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHEN
THE RIDGE ALOFT FLATTENS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMING
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...AND A SURGE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE ISLANDS DURING THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. FOR NOW NO CHANGES MADE TO
THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
SEE HOW THE WEATHER PATTERN UNFOLDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IN HAZY CONDITIONS. OCCASIONAL
GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH EASTERLY WINDS AT
5 TO 12 KT. AFT 06/12Z WINDS WILL INCREASE...15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH
NORTH OF THE REGION WILL HELP MAINTAIN OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS AND
CONTINUE TO DESICCATE FUELS. AS A RESULT...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND ON THURSDAY WITH EXTREMELY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. FOR THIS REASON A RED
FLAG WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME AREAS ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...PARTICULARLY IN AND AROUND SALINAS. STAY TUNED FOR
ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE MONA PASSAGE UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL BE MODERATE TO FRESH THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD TO MAINTAIN CHOPPY SEA CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGIONAL
WATERS WITH SEAS FLUCTUATING TO 6 TO 7 FEET IN SOME PLACES...HIGHEST
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF PR AND IN PORTIONS OF THE MONA PASSAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM AST TUE MAY 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH A
FEW FAIRLY INTENSE SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WESTERN PR AND CAN AGAIN DURING AFTERNOON NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BUT
THESE WILL NOT LAST LONG AS DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN AND CLOUDS
INCREASE TO MINIMIZE SUNSHINE. PRECIPITABLE WATER BARELY MORE
THAN AN INCH WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND MAKE SHOWERS ALMOST NON-
EXISTENT AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT AS
MUCH AS THEY HAVE BEEN.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED UNTIL SAT...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY. GFS SHOWS
A 700 MB TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 15N/30W (HARD TO SEE ON SATELLITE)
TO MIGRATE WESTWARD AND HELP TO DIRECT MOISTURE WELL NORTH OF
ANTILLES ABOUT 25N TOWARDS PR/USVI. THIS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
MOVING THIS WAY ONCE THE 700 MB RIDGE AT 19N/45W DISSIPATES AND
THE WESTWARD MOVING TROUGH ARRIVES.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HOWEVER FEW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL 05/22Z IN THE VICINITY OF TJBQ AND TJMZ. A SAHARAN AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA...PRODUCING HAZY SKIES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT UNTIL AT LEAST 05/22Z...DIMINISHING AFTER
THAT.

MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT
LEAST INTO WED. TRADE WINDS TO BE MAINLY IN FRESH CATEGORY WHICH
WILL KEEP SEAS CHOPPY AND FLIRTING AROUND 6 FEET SOME PLACES...
HIGHEST SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF PR AND TOWARDS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  90  76  92 /   0   0  10  20
STT  77  87  77  87 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

15/09





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051938
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
338 PM AST TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH A
FEW FAIRLY INTENSE SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WESTERN PR AND CAN AGAIN DURING AFTERNOON NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BUT
THESE WILL NOT LAST LONG AS DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN AND CLOUDS
INCREASE TO MINIMIZE SUNSHINE. PRECIPITABLE WATER BARELY MORE
THAN AN INCH WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND MAKE SHOWERS ALMOST NON-
EXISTENT AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT AS
MUCH AS THEY HAVE BEEN.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED UNTIL SAT...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY. GFS SHOWS
A 700 MB TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 15N/30W (HARD TO SEE ON SATELLITE)
TO MIGRATE WESTWARD AND HELP TO DIRECT MOISTURE WELL NORTH OF
ANTILLES ABOUT 25N TOWARDS PR/USVI. THIS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
MOVING THIS WAY ONCE THE 700 MB RIDGE AT 19N/45W DISSIPATES AND
THE WESTWARD MOVING TROUGH ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HOWEVER FEW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL 05/22Z IN THE VICINITY OF TJBQ AND TJMZ. A SAHARAN AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA...PRODUCING HAZY SKIES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT UNTIL AT LEAST 05/22Z...DIMINISHING AFTER
THAT.

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT
LEAST INTO WED. TRADE WINDS TO BE MAINLY IN FRESH CATEGORY WHICH
WILL KEEP SEAS CHOPPY AND FLIRTING AROUND 6 FEET SOME PLACES...
HIGHEST SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF PR AND TOWARDS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  90  77  92 /   0  10  10  20
STT  77  87  77  87 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

72/54





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051938
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
338 PM AST TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH A
FEW FAIRLY INTENSE SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WESTERN PR AND CAN AGAIN DURING AFTERNOON NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BUT
THESE WILL NOT LAST LONG AS DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN AND CLOUDS
INCREASE TO MINIMIZE SUNSHINE. PRECIPITABLE WATER BARELY MORE
THAN AN INCH WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND MAKE SHOWERS ALMOST NON-
EXISTENT AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT AS
MUCH AS THEY HAVE BEEN.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED UNTIL SAT...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY. GFS SHOWS
A 700 MB TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 15N/30W (HARD TO SEE ON SATELLITE)
TO MIGRATE WESTWARD AND HELP TO DIRECT MOISTURE WELL NORTH OF
ANTILLES ABOUT 25N TOWARDS PR/USVI. THIS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
MOVING THIS WAY ONCE THE 700 MB RIDGE AT 19N/45W DISSIPATES AND
THE WESTWARD MOVING TROUGH ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HOWEVER FEW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL 05/22Z IN THE VICINITY OF TJBQ AND TJMZ. A SAHARAN AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA...PRODUCING HAZY SKIES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT UNTIL AT LEAST 05/22Z...DIMINISHING AFTER
THAT.

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT
LEAST INTO WED. TRADE WINDS TO BE MAINLY IN FRESH CATEGORY WHICH
WILL KEEP SEAS CHOPPY AND FLIRTING AROUND 6 FEET SOME PLACES...
HIGHEST SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF PR AND TOWARDS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  90  77  92 /   0  10  10  20
STT  77  87  77  87 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

72/54




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051938
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
338 PM AST TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH A
FEW FAIRLY INTENSE SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WESTERN PR AND CAN AGAIN DURING AFTERNOON NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BUT
THESE WILL NOT LAST LONG AS DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN AND CLOUDS
INCREASE TO MINIMIZE SUNSHINE. PRECIPITABLE WATER BARELY MORE
THAN AN INCH WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND MAKE SHOWERS ALMOST NON-
EXISTENT AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT AS
MUCH AS THEY HAVE BEEN.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED UNTIL SAT...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY. GFS SHOWS
A 700 MB TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 15N/30W (HARD TO SEE ON SATELLITE)
TO MIGRATE WESTWARD AND HELP TO DIRECT MOISTURE WELL NORTH OF
ANTILLES ABOUT 25N TOWARDS PR/USVI. THIS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
MOVING THIS WAY ONCE THE 700 MB RIDGE AT 19N/45W DISSIPATES AND
THE WESTWARD MOVING TROUGH ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HOWEVER FEW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL 05/22Z IN THE VICINITY OF TJBQ AND TJMZ. A SAHARAN AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA...PRODUCING HAZY SKIES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT UNTIL AT LEAST 05/22Z...DIMINISHING AFTER
THAT.

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT
LEAST INTO WED. TRADE WINDS TO BE MAINLY IN FRESH CATEGORY WHICH
WILL KEEP SEAS CHOPPY AND FLIRTING AROUND 6 FEET SOME PLACES...
HIGHEST SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF PR AND TOWARDS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  90  77  92 /   0  10  10  20
STT  77  87  77  87 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

72/54




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051938
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
338 PM AST TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH A
FEW FAIRLY INTENSE SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WESTERN PR AND CAN AGAIN DURING AFTERNOON NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BUT
THESE WILL NOT LAST LONG AS DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN AND CLOUDS
INCREASE TO MINIMIZE SUNSHINE. PRECIPITABLE WATER BARELY MORE
THAN AN INCH WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND MAKE SHOWERS ALMOST NON-
EXISTENT AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT AS
MUCH AS THEY HAVE BEEN.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED UNTIL SAT...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY. GFS SHOWS
A 700 MB TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 15N/30W (HARD TO SEE ON SATELLITE)
TO MIGRATE WESTWARD AND HELP TO DIRECT MOISTURE WELL NORTH OF
ANTILLES ABOUT 25N TOWARDS PR/USVI. THIS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
MOVING THIS WAY ONCE THE 700 MB RIDGE AT 19N/45W DISSIPATES AND
THE WESTWARD MOVING TROUGH ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HOWEVER FEW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL 05/22Z IN THE VICINITY OF TJBQ AND TJMZ. A SAHARAN AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA...PRODUCING HAZY SKIES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT UNTIL AT LEAST 05/22Z...DIMINISHING AFTER
THAT.

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT
LEAST INTO WED. TRADE WINDS TO BE MAINLY IN FRESH CATEGORY WHICH
WILL KEEP SEAS CHOPPY AND FLIRTING AROUND 6 FEET SOME PLACES...
HIGHEST SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF PR AND TOWARDS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  90  77  92 /   0  10  10  20
STT  77  87  77  87 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

72/54





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051458
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1058 AM AST TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY LIGHT ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...BUT NOT PRECIPITATION WAS
DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS. A GENERALLY FAIR...MAINLY STABLE AND
HAZY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. HAZY SKIES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. LOOKING
AHEAD...COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK...
INCREASING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY FEW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AFTER 05/18Z IN THE VICINITY OF TJBQ AND TJMZ. A SAHARAN AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA...PRODUCING HAZY SKIES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS IS
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF 4 TO 5 FEET NORTHERLY SWELL AND FRESH
WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM AST TUE MAY 5 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
LIMITING THE SHOWER GENERATION ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS
FEATURE LOCATED OVER THE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...THIS WILL TIGHT THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING LOCAL WINDS.

DISCUSSION...A DRYING WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH A VERY MINIMAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THEREAFTER. THEREFORE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IF ANY WILL BE VERY
LIMITED AND SHORT LIVE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS DRY
PATTERN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO GENERATE A HEALTHY
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND SPREADING OF WILD FIRES.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RELIEF ON THIS DRY AND HOT WEATHER PATTERN
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AFTER SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. WE ARE TO FAR AWAY TO KNOW HOW
MUCH RAIN THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN THAT IS
MOST NEEDED.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A SAHARAN AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN...PRODUCING HAZY
SKIES TODAY. ESE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

MARINE...ALTHOUGH BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND WEDNESDAY
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS IS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF 4 TO
5 FEET NORTHERLY SWELL AND FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
AS SWELL SUBSIDE TODAY ATLANTIC WATERS CONDITIONS WILL REACH BELOW
SCA CONDITIONS LATER TODAY BUT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. NORTH
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL REACH OUR LOCAL WATERS SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  90  78 /  10   0  10  10
STT  87  78  88  78 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

72/54





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051458
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1058 AM AST TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY LIGHT ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...BUT NOT PRECIPITATION WAS
DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS. A GENERALLY FAIR...MAINLY STABLE AND
HAZY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. HAZY SKIES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. LOOKING
AHEAD...COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK...
INCREASING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY FEW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AFTER 05/18Z IN THE VICINITY OF TJBQ AND TJMZ. A SAHARAN AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA...PRODUCING HAZY SKIES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS IS
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF 4 TO 5 FEET NORTHERLY SWELL AND FRESH
WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM AST TUE MAY 5 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
LIMITING THE SHOWER GENERATION ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS
FEATURE LOCATED OVER THE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...THIS WILL TIGHT THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING LOCAL WINDS.

DISCUSSION...A DRYING WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH A VERY MINIMAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THEREAFTER. THEREFORE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IF ANY WILL BE VERY
LIMITED AND SHORT LIVE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS DRY
PATTERN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO GENERATE A HEALTHY
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND SPREADING OF WILD FIRES.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RELIEF ON THIS DRY AND HOT WEATHER PATTERN
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AFTER SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. WE ARE TO FAR AWAY TO KNOW HOW
MUCH RAIN THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN THAT IS
MOST NEEDED.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A SAHARAN AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN...PRODUCING HAZY
SKIES TODAY. ESE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

MARINE...ALTHOUGH BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND WEDNESDAY
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS IS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF 4 TO
5 FEET NORTHERLY SWELL AND FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
AS SWELL SUBSIDE TODAY ATLANTIC WATERS CONDITIONS WILL REACH BELOW
SCA CONDITIONS LATER TODAY BUT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. NORTH
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL REACH OUR LOCAL WATERS SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  90  78 /  10   0  10  10
STT  87  78  88  78 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

72/54





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051458
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1058 AM AST TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY LIGHT ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...BUT NOT PRECIPITATION WAS
DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS. A GENERALLY FAIR...MAINLY STABLE AND
HAZY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. HAZY SKIES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. LOOKING
AHEAD...COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK...
INCREASING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY FEW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AFTER 05/18Z IN THE VICINITY OF TJBQ AND TJMZ. A SAHARAN AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA...PRODUCING HAZY SKIES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS IS
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF 4 TO 5 FEET NORTHERLY SWELL AND FRESH
WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM AST TUE MAY 5 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
LIMITING THE SHOWER GENERATION ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS
FEATURE LOCATED OVER THE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...THIS WILL TIGHT THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING LOCAL WINDS.

DISCUSSION...A DRYING WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH A VERY MINIMAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THEREAFTER. THEREFORE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IF ANY WILL BE VERY
LIMITED AND SHORT LIVE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS DRY
PATTERN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO GENERATE A HEALTHY
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND SPREADING OF WILD FIRES.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RELIEF ON THIS DRY AND HOT WEATHER PATTERN
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AFTER SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. WE ARE TO FAR AWAY TO KNOW HOW
MUCH RAIN THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN THAT IS
MOST NEEDED.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A SAHARAN AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN...PRODUCING HAZY
SKIES TODAY. ESE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

MARINE...ALTHOUGH BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND WEDNESDAY
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS IS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF 4 TO
5 FEET NORTHERLY SWELL AND FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
AS SWELL SUBSIDE TODAY ATLANTIC WATERS CONDITIONS WILL REACH BELOW
SCA CONDITIONS LATER TODAY BUT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. NORTH
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL REACH OUR LOCAL WATERS SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  90  78 /  10   0  10  10
STT  87  78  88  78 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

72/54




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051458
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1058 AM AST TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY LIGHT ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...BUT NOT PRECIPITATION WAS
DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS. A GENERALLY FAIR...MAINLY STABLE AND
HAZY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. HAZY SKIES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. LOOKING
AHEAD...COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK...
INCREASING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY FEW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AFTER 05/18Z IN THE VICINITY OF TJBQ AND TJMZ. A SAHARAN AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA...PRODUCING HAZY SKIES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS IS
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF 4 TO 5 FEET NORTHERLY SWELL AND FRESH
WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM AST TUE MAY 5 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
LIMITING THE SHOWER GENERATION ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS
FEATURE LOCATED OVER THE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...THIS WILL TIGHT THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING LOCAL WINDS.

DISCUSSION...A DRYING WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH A VERY MINIMAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THEREAFTER. THEREFORE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IF ANY WILL BE VERY
LIMITED AND SHORT LIVE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS DRY
PATTERN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO GENERATE A HEALTHY
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND SPREADING OF WILD FIRES.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RELIEF ON THIS DRY AND HOT WEATHER PATTERN
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AFTER SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. WE ARE TO FAR AWAY TO KNOW HOW
MUCH RAIN THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN THAT IS
MOST NEEDED.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A SAHARAN AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN...PRODUCING HAZY
SKIES TODAY. ESE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

MARINE...ALTHOUGH BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND WEDNESDAY
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS IS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF 4 TO
5 FEET NORTHERLY SWELL AND FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
AS SWELL SUBSIDE TODAY ATLANTIC WATERS CONDITIONS WILL REACH BELOW
SCA CONDITIONS LATER TODAY BUT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. NORTH
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL REACH OUR LOCAL WATERS SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  90  78 /  10   0  10  10
STT  87  78  88  78 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

72/54




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 050814
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
414 AM AST TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
LIMITING THE SHOWER GENERATION ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS
FEATURE LOCATED OVER THE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...THIS WILL TIGHT THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING LOCAL WINDS.


.DISCUSSION...A DRYING WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH A VERY MINIMAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THEREAFTER. THEREFORE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IF ANY WILL BE VERY
LIMITED AND SHORT LIVE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS DRY
PATTERN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO GENERATE A HEALTHY
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND SPREADING OF WILD FIRES.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RELIEF ON THIS DRY AND HOT WEATHER PATTERN
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AFTER SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. WE ARE TO FAR AWAY TO KNOW HOW
MUCH RAIN THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN THAT IS
MOST NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A SAHARAN AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN...PRODUCING HAZY
SKIES TODAY. ESE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND WEDNESDAY
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS IS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF 4 TO
5 FEET NORTHERLY SWELL AND FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
AS SWELL SUBSIDE TODAY ATLANTIC WATERS CONDITIONS WILL REACH BELOW
SCA CONDITIONS LATER TODAY BUT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. NORTH
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL REACH OUR LOCAL WATERS SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  90  78 /  10   0  10  10
STT  87  78  88  78 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

23/10





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 050814
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
414 AM AST TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
LIMITING THE SHOWER GENERATION ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS
FEATURE LOCATED OVER THE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...THIS WILL TIGHT THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING LOCAL WINDS.


.DISCUSSION...A DRYING WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH A VERY MINIMAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THEREAFTER. THEREFORE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IF ANY WILL BE VERY
LIMITED AND SHORT LIVE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS DRY
PATTERN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO GENERATE A HEALTHY
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND SPREADING OF WILD FIRES.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RELIEF ON THIS DRY AND HOT WEATHER PATTERN
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AFTER SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. WE ARE TO FAR AWAY TO KNOW HOW
MUCH RAIN THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN THAT IS
MOST NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A SAHARAN AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN...PRODUCING HAZY
SKIES TODAY. ESE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND WEDNESDAY
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS IS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF 4 TO
5 FEET NORTHERLY SWELL AND FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
AS SWELL SUBSIDE TODAY ATLANTIC WATERS CONDITIONS WILL REACH BELOW
SCA CONDITIONS LATER TODAY BUT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. NORTH
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL REACH OUR LOCAL WATERS SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  90  78 /  10   0  10  10
STT  87  78  88  78 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

23/10




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041904
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN VERY SLOWLY. A TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL REACH HISPANIOLA BY
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF
THE MID ATLANTIC UNITED STATES WILL DRIFT EAST SOUTHEAST TO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A
LOW PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF CUBA TUESDAY AND MOVES NORTH INTO
SOUTH CAROLINA BY FRIDAY...CAUSING LOCAL WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST
AGAIN BY MID WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED NOW THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MINOR AMOUNTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FEWER SHOWERS WERE DETECTED TODAY...AND THOSE
SHOWERS THAT DID APPEAR LASTED ON THE ORDER OF A FEW MINUTES.
GENERAL DRYING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A VERY
MINIMAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THEREAFTER. THE MAJOR
CHANGE IS THAT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO SEE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES INCREASE AFTER SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. THE GFS SHOWS THAT MOISTURE STILL REMAINS WEAK BETWEEN
850 MB AND 650 MB BEYOND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK EVEN THOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO 1.9 INCHES ON SUNDAY AND REMAINS ABOVE
1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT AND EXTENT
OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT WOULD HAVE FALLEN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY VCNTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJBQ AND TJMZ UNTIL AT LEAST 04/22Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST UP TO 25 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE
UP TO AROUND 25K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RISES WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA.
EXPECT WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS IN MOST EXPOSED WATERS WITH WINDS A
LITTLE HIGHER AROUND CERTAIN PINCH POINTS FOR THE AIR
FLOW...MAINLY AROUND SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. SOME
GUSTS COULD EXCEED 30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO RISE TO 7 FEET MAINLY
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  89  78  90 /   0   0   0  10
STT  78  87  78  88 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM AST TUESDAY FOR ATLC
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

72/12




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041904
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN VERY SLOWLY. A TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL REACH HISPANIOLA BY
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF
THE MID ATLANTIC UNITED STATES WILL DRIFT EAST SOUTHEAST TO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A
LOW PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF CUBA TUESDAY AND MOVES NORTH INTO
SOUTH CAROLINA BY FRIDAY...CAUSING LOCAL WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST
AGAIN BY MID WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED NOW THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MINOR AMOUNTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FEWER SHOWERS WERE DETECTED TODAY...AND THOSE
SHOWERS THAT DID APPEAR LASTED ON THE ORDER OF A FEW MINUTES.
GENERAL DRYING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A VERY
MINIMAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THEREAFTER. THE MAJOR
CHANGE IS THAT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO SEE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES INCREASE AFTER SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. THE GFS SHOWS THAT MOISTURE STILL REMAINS WEAK BETWEEN
850 MB AND 650 MB BEYOND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK EVEN THOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO 1.9 INCHES ON SUNDAY AND REMAINS ABOVE
1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT AND EXTENT
OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT WOULD HAVE FALLEN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY VCNTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJBQ AND TJMZ UNTIL AT LEAST 04/22Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST UP TO 25 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE
UP TO AROUND 25K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RISES WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA.
EXPECT WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS IN MOST EXPOSED WATERS WITH WINDS A
LITTLE HIGHER AROUND CERTAIN PINCH POINTS FOR THE AIR
FLOW...MAINLY AROUND SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. SOME
GUSTS COULD EXCEED 30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO RISE TO 7 FEET MAINLY
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  89  78  90 /   0   0   0  10
STT  78  87  78  88 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM AST TUESDAY FOR ATLC
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

72/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041904
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN VERY SLOWLY. A TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL REACH HISPANIOLA BY
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF
THE MID ATLANTIC UNITED STATES WILL DRIFT EAST SOUTHEAST TO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A
LOW PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF CUBA TUESDAY AND MOVES NORTH INTO
SOUTH CAROLINA BY FRIDAY...CAUSING LOCAL WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST
AGAIN BY MID WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED NOW THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MINOR AMOUNTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FEWER SHOWERS WERE DETECTED TODAY...AND THOSE
SHOWERS THAT DID APPEAR LASTED ON THE ORDER OF A FEW MINUTES.
GENERAL DRYING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A VERY
MINIMAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THEREAFTER. THE MAJOR
CHANGE IS THAT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO SEE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES INCREASE AFTER SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. THE GFS SHOWS THAT MOISTURE STILL REMAINS WEAK BETWEEN
850 MB AND 650 MB BEYOND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK EVEN THOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO 1.9 INCHES ON SUNDAY AND REMAINS ABOVE
1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT AND EXTENT
OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT WOULD HAVE FALLEN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY VCNTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJBQ AND TJMZ UNTIL AT LEAST 04/22Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST UP TO 25 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE
UP TO AROUND 25K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RISES WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA.
EXPECT WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS IN MOST EXPOSED WATERS WITH WINDS A
LITTLE HIGHER AROUND CERTAIN PINCH POINTS FOR THE AIR
FLOW...MAINLY AROUND SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. SOME
GUSTS COULD EXCEED 30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO RISE TO 7 FEET MAINLY
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  89  78  90 /   0   0   0  10
STT  78  87  78  88 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM AST TUESDAY FOR ATLC
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

72/12




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041904
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN VERY SLOWLY. A TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL REACH HISPANIOLA BY
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF
THE MID ATLANTIC UNITED STATES WILL DRIFT EAST SOUTHEAST TO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A
LOW PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF CUBA TUESDAY AND MOVES NORTH INTO
SOUTH CAROLINA BY FRIDAY...CAUSING LOCAL WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST
AGAIN BY MID WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED NOW THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MINOR AMOUNTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FEWER SHOWERS WERE DETECTED TODAY...AND THOSE
SHOWERS THAT DID APPEAR LASTED ON THE ORDER OF A FEW MINUTES.
GENERAL DRYING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A VERY
MINIMAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THEREAFTER. THE MAJOR
CHANGE IS THAT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO SEE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES INCREASE AFTER SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. THE GFS SHOWS THAT MOISTURE STILL REMAINS WEAK BETWEEN
850 MB AND 650 MB BEYOND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK EVEN THOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO 1.9 INCHES ON SUNDAY AND REMAINS ABOVE
1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT AND EXTENT
OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT WOULD HAVE FALLEN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY VCNTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJBQ AND TJMZ UNTIL AT LEAST 04/22Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST UP TO 25 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE
UP TO AROUND 25K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RISES WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA.
EXPECT WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS IN MOST EXPOSED WATERS WITH WINDS A
LITTLE HIGHER AROUND CERTAIN PINCH POINTS FOR THE AIR
FLOW...MAINLY AROUND SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. SOME
GUSTS COULD EXCEED 30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO RISE TO 7 FEET MAINLY
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  89  78  90 /   0   0   0  10
STT  78  87  78  88 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM AST TUESDAY FOR ATLC
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

72/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041422
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1022 AM AST MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE SURROUNDING
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BY MID MORNING THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY DISSIPATES LEAVING THE REGION UNDER A CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL EFFECT TO INDUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. HAZY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A NEW AREA OF SAHARAN DUST ARRIVE TO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. LOOKING WELL AHEAD...AN INCREASE
IN LOW MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND POSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN STORE
FOR THE REGION LATE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS...WITH ONLY FEW CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER 04/17Z IN THE VICINITY OF TJBQ AND
TJMZ. WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH OCNL GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING AFTER 04/22Z

&&

.MARINE...SMALL AND LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE
LOCAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
THIS WILL GENERATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM AST MON MAY 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ERODE THROUGH MID WEEK...AS
TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AS
SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH
TRADE WINDS STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE AREA.

DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OBSERVED OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH COASTAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED...TRADE WIND
SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING... FOLLOWED BY
LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WEST PUERTO RICO CANT
BE RULED OUT EACH DAY. A NEW AREA OF SAHARAN DUST WILL ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...WITH HAZY SKIES EXPECTED MUCH
OF THIS WORK WEEK ALONG WITH FRESH WINDS IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

RIDGING WILL COLLAPSE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

AVIATION...VFR THRU THE NEXT 24 HRS...WITH FEW CLOUDS AND
ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE AFT 04/17 IN THE VCNTY OF TJBQ & TJMZ. WINDS
AT 10-15 KT WITH OCNL GUST UP TO 20 KT AND SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AFT 04/12Z.

MARINE...SMALL AND LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL WATERS TODAY. WAVE MODELS ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
WHAT THE BUOYS ARE REPORTING. THEREFORE...DROPPED THE WAVE HEIGHT
TO REPRESENT ACTUAL CONDITIONS...AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18
HOURS.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS GENERATING
CHOPPY CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA...WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING INTO EFFECT LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  78  90  78 /  20   0  10  10
STT  88  78  88  78 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM AST TUESDAY FOR ATLC
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

72/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 040900
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ERODE THROUGH MID WEEK...AS
TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AS
SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH
TRADE WINDS STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OBSERVED OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH COASTAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED...TRADE WIND
SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING... FOLLOWED BY
LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WEST PUERTO RICO CANT
BE RULED OUT EACH DAY. A NEW AREA OF SAHARAN DUST WILL ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...WITH HAZY SKIES EXPECTED MUCH
OF THIS WORK WEEK ALONG WITH FRESH WINDS IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

RIDGING WILL COLLAPSE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THRU THE NEXT 24 HRS...WITH FEW CLOUDS AND
ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE AFT 04/17 IN THE VCNTY OF TJBQ & TJMZ. WINDS
AT 10-15 KT WITH OCNL GUST UP TO 20 KT AND SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AFT 04/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL AND LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL WATERS TODAY. WAVE MODELS ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
WHAT THE BUOYS ARE REPORTING. THEREFORE...DROPPED THE WAVE HEIGHT
TO REPRESENT ACTUAL CONDITIONS...AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18
HOURS.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS GENERATING
CHOPPY CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA...WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING INTO EFFECT LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  78  90  78 /  20   0  10  10
STT  88  78  88  78 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM AST TUESDAY FOR ATLC
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

10/23





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 040900
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ERODE THROUGH MID WEEK...AS
TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AS
SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH
TRADE WINDS STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OBSERVED OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH COASTAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED...TRADE WIND
SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING... FOLLOWED BY
LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WEST PUERTO RICO CANT
BE RULED OUT EACH DAY. A NEW AREA OF SAHARAN DUST WILL ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...WITH HAZY SKIES EXPECTED MUCH
OF THIS WORK WEEK ALONG WITH FRESH WINDS IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

RIDGING WILL COLLAPSE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THRU THE NEXT 24 HRS...WITH FEW CLOUDS AND
ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE AFT 04/17 IN THE VCNTY OF TJBQ & TJMZ. WINDS
AT 10-15 KT WITH OCNL GUST UP TO 20 KT AND SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AFT 04/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL AND LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL WATERS TODAY. WAVE MODELS ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
WHAT THE BUOYS ARE REPORTING. THEREFORE...DROPPED THE WAVE HEIGHT
TO REPRESENT ACTUAL CONDITIONS...AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18
HOURS.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS GENERATING
CHOPPY CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA...WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING INTO EFFECT LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  78  90  78 /  20   0  10  10
STT  88  78  88  78 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM AST TUESDAY FOR ATLC
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

10/23




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 040201 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1001 PM AST SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD TRACK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO THE LOCAL EFFECTS AND
DIURNAL HEATING. SHOWER ACTIVITY DISSIPATED AFTER SUNSET...AND
SKIES BECAME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS CWA.

BRIEF PASSING PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN ON THE WINDWARD
SECTIONS OF PR AND THE USVI OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUES...MEANWHILE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE
SUGGESTING AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW AFTER TOMORROW MORNING. IN
ADDITION...THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT
MORE UNSTABLE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THESE
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS COULD LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO.

AFTER MONDAY NIGHT...WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN DRIER
THAN NORMAL AND WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. ALSO...A SAHARAN AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TUESDAY TO THURSDAY. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE BY
MID WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...MORNING SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT JSJ AND USVI TERMINALS.
BREEZY WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY THAN RECENT DAYS. DUST HAZE
WILL BEGIN AFFECTING LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
WWD REACHING USVI AND PR TERMINALS BY THE END OF THE DAY REDUCING
VSBY TO 6SM.


&&

.MARINE...THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXIT THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY MONDAY.
AS A RESULT...TRADE WIND WINDS AND SEAS WILL RISE WITH WINDS UP
TO 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IS NOW IN EFFECT AFTER MONDAY NIGHT ON BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM AST SUN MAY 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT AND BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THRU THE WEEK...INCREASING
THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MID LEVEL RIDGE AND
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED THIS MORNING
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PR INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WERE JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...THE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SMALL SHOWERS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR.
MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING FROM 1.14 TO
1.40 INCHES BY 04/12Z. HOWEVER...KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FCST
BETWEEN EASTERN PR AND THE USVI THRU THE MORNING PERIOD AND OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON.

A DRYING PATTERN IS EXPECTED QUICKLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THRU AT
LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHING
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON TUE-WED IN
RESPONSE TO THIS. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT LEAST UNTIL THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY...AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE...DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THEN. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED
AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY COULD POP UP A FEW SHOWERS BRIEFLY
OVER NORTHWESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...SCT SHRA EXPECTED NW PR TIL 03/22Z THEN FEW SHRA TIL
ARND 04/08Z. AFT 04/08Z SCT SHRA ERN QUARTER PR CLRG AFT 04/12Z.
MVFR CONDS BRIEF WITH SHRA OTHERWISE VFR EVERYWHERE. WINDS ALF ESE 5-
15 KT BLO FL090 BCMG S ARND 10 KT BTWN FL090 AND FL200. WINDS SSW 20-
30 KT UP TO FL400.

MARINE...NEAR SHORE BUOYS ACROSS PR AND THE USVI ARE INDICATING
SEAS OF 2 TO JUST BELOW 4 FEET AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS. SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS BY LATE MON-EARLY TUE DUE TO
DEVELOPING FRESH TO VIGOROUS TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT BY THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  91  78  91 /  10  10   0  10
STT  78  87  78  88 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM AST TUESDAY FOR
     ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

64/27





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 040201 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1001 PM AST SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD TRACK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO THE LOCAL EFFECTS AND
DIURNAL HEATING. SHOWER ACTIVITY DISSIPATED AFTER SUNSET...AND
SKIES BECAME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS CWA.

BRIEF PASSING PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN ON THE WINDWARD
SECTIONS OF PR AND THE USVI OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUES...MEANWHILE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE
SUGGESTING AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW AFTER TOMORROW MORNING. IN
ADDITION...THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT
MORE UNSTABLE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THESE
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS COULD LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO.

AFTER MONDAY NIGHT...WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN DRIER
THAN NORMAL AND WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. ALSO...A SAHARAN AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TUESDAY TO THURSDAY. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE BY
MID WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...MORNING SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT JSJ AND USVI TERMINALS.
BREEZY WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY THAN RECENT DAYS. DUST HAZE
WILL BEGIN AFFECTING LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
WWD REACHING USVI AND PR TERMINALS BY THE END OF THE DAY REDUCING
VSBY TO 6SM.


&&

.MARINE...THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXIT THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY MONDAY.
AS A RESULT...TRADE WIND WINDS AND SEAS WILL RISE WITH WINDS UP
TO 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IS NOW IN EFFECT AFTER MONDAY NIGHT ON BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM AST SUN MAY 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT AND BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THRU THE WEEK...INCREASING
THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MID LEVEL RIDGE AND
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED THIS MORNING
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PR INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WERE JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...THE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SMALL SHOWERS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR.
MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING FROM 1.14 TO
1.40 INCHES BY 04/12Z. HOWEVER...KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FCST
BETWEEN EASTERN PR AND THE USVI THRU THE MORNING PERIOD AND OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON.

A DRYING PATTERN IS EXPECTED QUICKLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THRU AT
LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHING
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON TUE-WED IN
RESPONSE TO THIS. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT LEAST UNTIL THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY...AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE...DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THEN. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED
AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY COULD POP UP A FEW SHOWERS BRIEFLY
OVER NORTHWESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...SCT SHRA EXPECTED NW PR TIL 03/22Z THEN FEW SHRA TIL
ARND 04/08Z. AFT 04/08Z SCT SHRA ERN QUARTER PR CLRG AFT 04/12Z.
MVFR CONDS BRIEF WITH SHRA OTHERWISE VFR EVERYWHERE. WINDS ALF ESE 5-
15 KT BLO FL090 BCMG S ARND 10 KT BTWN FL090 AND FL200. WINDS SSW 20-
30 KT UP TO FL400.

MARINE...NEAR SHORE BUOYS ACROSS PR AND THE USVI ARE INDICATING
SEAS OF 2 TO JUST BELOW 4 FEET AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS. SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS BY LATE MON-EARLY TUE DUE TO
DEVELOPING FRESH TO VIGOROUS TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT BY THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  91  78  91 /  10  10   0  10
STT  78  87  78  88 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM AST TUESDAY FOR
     ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

64/27




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 040201 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1001 PM AST SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD TRACK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO THE LOCAL EFFECTS AND
DIURNAL HEATING. SHOWER ACTIVITY DISSIPATED AFTER SUNSET...AND
SKIES BECAME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS CWA.

BRIEF PASSING PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN ON THE WINDWARD
SECTIONS OF PR AND THE USVI OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUES...MEANWHILE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE
SUGGESTING AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW AFTER TOMORROW MORNING. IN
ADDITION...THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT
MORE UNSTABLE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THESE
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS COULD LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO.

AFTER MONDAY NIGHT...WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN DRIER
THAN NORMAL AND WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. ALSO...A SAHARAN AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TUESDAY TO THURSDAY. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE BY
MID WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...MORNING SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT JSJ AND USVI TERMINALS.
BREEZY WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY THAN RECENT DAYS. DUST HAZE
WILL BEGIN AFFECTING LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
WWD REACHING USVI AND PR TERMINALS BY THE END OF THE DAY REDUCING
VSBY TO 6SM.


&&

.MARINE...THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXIT THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY MONDAY.
AS A RESULT...TRADE WIND WINDS AND SEAS WILL RISE WITH WINDS UP
TO 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IS NOW IN EFFECT AFTER MONDAY NIGHT ON BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM AST SUN MAY 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT AND BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THRU THE WEEK...INCREASING
THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MID LEVEL RIDGE AND
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED THIS MORNING
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PR INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WERE JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...THE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SMALL SHOWERS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR.
MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING FROM 1.14 TO
1.40 INCHES BY 04/12Z. HOWEVER...KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FCST
BETWEEN EASTERN PR AND THE USVI THRU THE MORNING PERIOD AND OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON.

A DRYING PATTERN IS EXPECTED QUICKLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THRU AT
LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHING
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON TUE-WED IN
RESPONSE TO THIS. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT LEAST UNTIL THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY...AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE...DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THEN. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED
AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY COULD POP UP A FEW SHOWERS BRIEFLY
OVER NORTHWESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...SCT SHRA EXPECTED NW PR TIL 03/22Z THEN FEW SHRA TIL
ARND 04/08Z. AFT 04/08Z SCT SHRA ERN QUARTER PR CLRG AFT 04/12Z.
MVFR CONDS BRIEF WITH SHRA OTHERWISE VFR EVERYWHERE. WINDS ALF ESE 5-
15 KT BLO FL090 BCMG S ARND 10 KT BTWN FL090 AND FL200. WINDS SSW 20-
30 KT UP TO FL400.

MARINE...NEAR SHORE BUOYS ACROSS PR AND THE USVI ARE INDICATING
SEAS OF 2 TO JUST BELOW 4 FEET AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS. SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS BY LATE MON-EARLY TUE DUE TO
DEVELOPING FRESH TO VIGOROUS TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT BY THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  91  78  91 /  10  10   0  10
STT  78  87  78  88 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM AST TUESDAY FOR
     ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

64/27





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 040201 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1001 PM AST SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD TRACK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO THE LOCAL EFFECTS AND
DIURNAL HEATING. SHOWER ACTIVITY DISSIPATED AFTER SUNSET...AND
SKIES BECAME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS CWA.

BRIEF PASSING PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN ON THE WINDWARD
SECTIONS OF PR AND THE USVI OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUES...MEANWHILE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE
SUGGESTING AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW AFTER TOMORROW MORNING. IN
ADDITION...THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT
MORE UNSTABLE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THESE
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS COULD LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO.

AFTER MONDAY NIGHT...WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN DRIER
THAN NORMAL AND WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. ALSO...A SAHARAN AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TUESDAY TO THURSDAY. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE BY
MID WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...MORNING SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT JSJ AND USVI TERMINALS.
BREEZY WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY THAN RECENT DAYS. DUST HAZE
WILL BEGIN AFFECTING LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
WWD REACHING USVI AND PR TERMINALS BY THE END OF THE DAY REDUCING
VSBY TO 6SM.


&&

.MARINE...THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXIT THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY MONDAY.
AS A RESULT...TRADE WIND WINDS AND SEAS WILL RISE WITH WINDS UP
TO 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IS NOW IN EFFECT AFTER MONDAY NIGHT ON BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM AST SUN MAY 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT AND BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THRU THE WEEK...INCREASING
THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MID LEVEL RIDGE AND
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED THIS MORNING
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PR INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WERE JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...THE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SMALL SHOWERS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR.
MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING FROM 1.14 TO
1.40 INCHES BY 04/12Z. HOWEVER...KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FCST
BETWEEN EASTERN PR AND THE USVI THRU THE MORNING PERIOD AND OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON.

A DRYING PATTERN IS EXPECTED QUICKLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THRU AT
LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHING
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON TUE-WED IN
RESPONSE TO THIS. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT LEAST UNTIL THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY...AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE...DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THEN. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED
AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY COULD POP UP A FEW SHOWERS BRIEFLY
OVER NORTHWESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...SCT SHRA EXPECTED NW PR TIL 03/22Z THEN FEW SHRA TIL
ARND 04/08Z. AFT 04/08Z SCT SHRA ERN QUARTER PR CLRG AFT 04/12Z.
MVFR CONDS BRIEF WITH SHRA OTHERWISE VFR EVERYWHERE. WINDS ALF ESE 5-
15 KT BLO FL090 BCMG S ARND 10 KT BTWN FL090 AND FL200. WINDS SSW 20-
30 KT UP TO FL400.

MARINE...NEAR SHORE BUOYS ACROSS PR AND THE USVI ARE INDICATING
SEAS OF 2 TO JUST BELOW 4 FEET AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS. SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS BY LATE MON-EARLY TUE DUE TO
DEVELOPING FRESH TO VIGOROUS TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT BY THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  91  78  91 /  10  10   0  10
STT  78  87  78  88 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM AST TUESDAY FOR
     ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

64/27




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 031835
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
235 PM AST SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT AND BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THRU THE WEEK...INCREASING
THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MID LEVEL RIDGE AND
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED THIS MORNING
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PR INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WERE JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...THE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SMALL SHOWERS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR.
MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING FROM 1.14 TO
1.40 INCHES BY 04/12Z. HOWEVER...KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FCST
BETWEEN EASTERN PR AND THE USVI THRU THE MORNING PERIOD AND OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON.

A DRYING PATTERN IS EXPECTED QUICKLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THRU AT
LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHING
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON TUE-WED IN
RESPONSE TO THIS. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT LEAST UNTIL THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY...AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE...DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THEN. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED
AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY COULD POP UP A FEW SHOWERS BRIEFLY
OVER NORTHWESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA EXPECTED NW PR TIL 03/22Z THEN FEW SHRA TIL
ARND 04/08Z. AFT 04/08Z SCT SHRA ERN QUARTER PR CLRG AFT 04/12Z.
MVFR CONDS BRIEF WITH SHRA OTHERWISE VFR EVERYWHERE. WINDS ALF ESE 5-
15 KT BLO FL090 BCMG S ARND 10 KT BTWN FL090 AND FL200. WINDS SSW 20-
30 KT UP TO FL400.


&&

.MARINE...NEAR SHORE BUOYS ACROSS PR AND THE USVI ARE INDICATING
SEAS OF 2 TO JUST BELOW 4 FEET AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS. SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS BY LATE MON-EARLY TUE DUE TO
DEVELOPING FRESH TO VIGOROUS TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT BY THEN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  91  78  91 /  20  10   0  10
STT  78  87  78  88 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/13





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 031835
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
235 PM AST SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT AND BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THRU THE WEEK...INCREASING
THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MID LEVEL RIDGE AND
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED THIS MORNING
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PR INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WERE JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...THE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SMALL SHOWERS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR.
MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING FROM 1.14 TO
1.40 INCHES BY 04/12Z. HOWEVER...KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FCST
BETWEEN EASTERN PR AND THE USVI THRU THE MORNING PERIOD AND OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON.

A DRYING PATTERN IS EXPECTED QUICKLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THRU AT
LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHING
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON TUE-WED IN
RESPONSE TO THIS. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT LEAST UNTIL THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY...AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE...DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THEN. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED
AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY COULD POP UP A FEW SHOWERS BRIEFLY
OVER NORTHWESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA EXPECTED NW PR TIL 03/22Z THEN FEW SHRA TIL
ARND 04/08Z. AFT 04/08Z SCT SHRA ERN QUARTER PR CLRG AFT 04/12Z.
MVFR CONDS BRIEF WITH SHRA OTHERWISE VFR EVERYWHERE. WINDS ALF ESE 5-
15 KT BLO FL090 BCMG S ARND 10 KT BTWN FL090 AND FL200. WINDS SSW 20-
30 KT UP TO FL400.


&&

.MARINE...NEAR SHORE BUOYS ACROSS PR AND THE USVI ARE INDICATING
SEAS OF 2 TO JUST BELOW 4 FEET AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS. SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS BY LATE MON-EARLY TUE DUE TO
DEVELOPING FRESH TO VIGOROUS TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT BY THEN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  91  78  91 /  20  10   0  10
STT  78  87  78  88 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/13




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 031835
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
235 PM AST SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT AND BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THRU THE WEEK...INCREASING
THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MID LEVEL RIDGE AND
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED THIS MORNING
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PR INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WERE JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...THE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SMALL SHOWERS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR.
MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING FROM 1.14 TO
1.40 INCHES BY 04/12Z. HOWEVER...KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FCST
BETWEEN EASTERN PR AND THE USVI THRU THE MORNING PERIOD AND OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON.

A DRYING PATTERN IS EXPECTED QUICKLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THRU AT
LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHING
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON TUE-WED IN
RESPONSE TO THIS. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT LEAST UNTIL THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY...AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE...DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THEN. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED
AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY COULD POP UP A FEW SHOWERS BRIEFLY
OVER NORTHWESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA EXPECTED NW PR TIL 03/22Z THEN FEW SHRA TIL
ARND 04/08Z. AFT 04/08Z SCT SHRA ERN QUARTER PR CLRG AFT 04/12Z.
MVFR CONDS BRIEF WITH SHRA OTHERWISE VFR EVERYWHERE. WINDS ALF ESE 5-
15 KT BLO FL090 BCMG S ARND 10 KT BTWN FL090 AND FL200. WINDS SSW 20-
30 KT UP TO FL400.


&&

.MARINE...NEAR SHORE BUOYS ACROSS PR AND THE USVI ARE INDICATING
SEAS OF 2 TO JUST BELOW 4 FEET AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS. SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS BY LATE MON-EARLY TUE DUE TO
DEVELOPING FRESH TO VIGOROUS TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT BY THEN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  91  78  91 /  20  10   0  10
STT  78  87  78  88 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/13





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 031835
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
235 PM AST SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT AND BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THRU THE WEEK...INCREASING
THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MID LEVEL RIDGE AND
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED THIS MORNING
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PR INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WERE JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...THE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SMALL SHOWERS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR.
MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING FROM 1.14 TO
1.40 INCHES BY 04/12Z. HOWEVER...KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FCST
BETWEEN EASTERN PR AND THE USVI THRU THE MORNING PERIOD AND OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON.

A DRYING PATTERN IS EXPECTED QUICKLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THRU AT
LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHING
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON TUE-WED IN
RESPONSE TO THIS. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT LEAST UNTIL THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY...AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE...DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THEN. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED
AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY COULD POP UP A FEW SHOWERS BRIEFLY
OVER NORTHWESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA EXPECTED NW PR TIL 03/22Z THEN FEW SHRA TIL
ARND 04/08Z. AFT 04/08Z SCT SHRA ERN QUARTER PR CLRG AFT 04/12Z.
MVFR CONDS BRIEF WITH SHRA OTHERWISE VFR EVERYWHERE. WINDS ALF ESE 5-
15 KT BLO FL090 BCMG S ARND 10 KT BTWN FL090 AND FL200. WINDS SSW 20-
30 KT UP TO FL400.


&&

.MARINE...NEAR SHORE BUOYS ACROSS PR AND THE USVI ARE INDICATING
SEAS OF 2 TO JUST BELOW 4 FEET AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS. SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS BY LATE MON-EARLY TUE DUE TO
DEVELOPING FRESH TO VIGOROUS TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT BY THEN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  91  78  91 /  20  10   0  10
STT  78  87  78  88 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/13




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