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000
AXGM70 PGUM 280243
DGTGUM

GUZ001>004-120200
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
PMZ161-PMZ171>174-PMZ181-120200
KOROR PALAU-YAP-CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE-MAJURO-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1200 PM CHST THU APR 28 2016

...EXTREME DROUGHT PERSISTS FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF
MICRONESIA...

SYNOPSIS...
THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
INDICATES THAT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS MICRONESIA CONTINUE TO BE IN AN
EXTREME DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4 LEVELS). OVERALL...DROUGHT
CONDITIONS HAVE WORSENED IN SOME AREAS OF MICRONESIA WHILE THEY HAVE
IMPROVED OVER OTHER AREAS. WHILE SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF CAME TO A FEW
ISLANDS AND ATOLLS IN APRIL...THE RAIN WAS VERY SPOTTY AND WAS
LIMITED TO ONLY A FEW DAYS ON MANY OF THE ISLANDS/ATOLLS.

ONE OF THE STRONGEST EL NINO EVENTS IN RECORDED HISTORY REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. THE EL NINO ADVISORY
ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) CONTINUES IN EFFECT.
WHILE THIS EL NINO EVENT HAS PEAKED AND IS SLOWLY WEAKENING...THE
ASSOCIATED DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOME MICRONESIAN LOCALES
INTO THE LATE SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER. CLIMATE MODEL PROJECTIONS DO
INDICATE...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE...THAT THE EL NINO PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH LATE SPRING...THEN TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL BY THE
SUMMER MONTHS AND LIKELY TO LA NINA STATUS LATE IN THE YEAR. AS A
RESULT...THE CPC HAS ISSUED A LA NINA WATCH.

DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE STILL WORSENING ACROSS PARTS OF MICRONESIA.
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IS AFFECTING THE MARIANA ISLANDS...THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU ALONG WITH YAP...KOSRAE...CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES
IN THE FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA AND THE REPUBLIC OF THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS. HEAVIER RAINS HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ISLANDS OF POHNPEI AND CHUUK STATES. THERE COULD BE A SLIGHTLY WET
MONTH FROM NOW THROUGH LATE SPRING 2016...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS AS 2016 PROGRESSES
TOWARD SUMMER.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS....

THE MARIANA ISLANDS...

THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...
CONDITIONS IN APRIL HAVE BEEN VERY DRY WITH COMPUTER MODELS
INDICATING THAT BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT TWO
TO THREE MONTHS. WATER SUPPLIES NEED TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY
AND WATER CONSERVATION IS HIGHLY ENCOURAGED. DRYING AND YELLOWING OF
FOOD CROPS AND VEGETATION WILL BECOME MUCH WORSE AND GRASS FIRES
WILL INCREASE. LIVESTOCK ON TINIAN MAY BECOME STRESSED AS FOOD
SOURCES DRY UP. WATER WELLS ON SAIPAN COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
SALINITY AS THE DROUGHT PROGRESSES.

GUAM...
RAINFALL HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS AND BELOW
NORMAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT TWO MONTHS. ONLY 1.21
INCHES HAS FALLEN AT THE AIRPORT SO FAR IN APRIL...WHICH IS ABOUT 40
PERCENT OF NORMAL. WATER SUPPLIES SHOULD BE MONITORED AND SOME WATER
CONSERVATION IS ENCOURAGED. SURFACE WATER SUPPLIES ACROSS SOUTHERN
GUAM WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AND DRINKING WATER PRODUCTION IN THE
SOUTH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT. DRYING AND YELLOWING OF
FOOD CROPS AND VEGETATION WILL BECOME WORSE AND THE NUMBER OF GRASS
FIRES WILL INCREASE IN THE COMING WEEKS. SURFACE CRACKS HAVE EMERGED
ACROSS TERRAIN MADE OF CLAY AND WHERE DRAINAGE IS GOOD. THIS
INDICATES THE DEPLETION OF SOIL MOISTURE AND PLANTS WILL SEE
INCREASED STRESS.

FOR THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU...

THE PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU HAS DECLARED A STATE OF
EMERGENCY DUE TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

KOROR AND BABELDAOB...
KOROR WAS IN AN EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 4 OF 4)...BUT THE
MAIN ISLANDS HAVE EXPERIENCED SOME INCREASED RAINFALL DURING APRIL.
TWO 2-DAY PERIODS DURING THE MONTH HAVE HAD HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY STILL BE BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS. WATER
RATIONING HAS BEEN IMPLEMENTED AND WATER CONSERVATION IS STILL
RECOMMENDED. THE NGERIMEL RESERVOIR HAS PARTIALLY RECOVERED FROM ITS
VERY LOW LEVELS AND FLOW FROM THE NGERIKIIL RIVER HAS ALSO
INCREASED. ALL OF THIS RAIN WILL REDUCE THE THREAT OF GRASS FIRES
AND THE STRESS ON VEGETATION. ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE NORMAL RAINS RETURN.

OUTLYING ISLANDS OF PALAU INCLUDING KAYANGEL...
SOME RAIN DID FALL ON ANGAUR...SONSOROL AND THE MORE SOUTHERN
ATOLLS...BUT THEY WILL LIKELY RETURN TO A DRIER PATTERN.
OVERALL...RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
ONE OR TWO MONTHS AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF
THE ISLANDS AND ATOLLS. WATER SUPPLIES ARE AT RISK AND STRICT
CONSERVATION MEASURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVOID DEPLETION OF WELLS
AND CATCHMENTS. WELLS SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR EXCESSIVE SALINITY.

DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS IS LIKELY ON THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND ATOLLS OF
PALAU. THE HEALTH OF FOOD CROPS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED...AND
FOOD ASSISTANCE COULD BECOME AN ISSUE IF DAMAGES TO PLANTS AND
FRUITS ARE IRREVERSIBLE. WATER CATCHMENTS SHOULD BE MONITORED VERY
CLOSELY IN THE COMING WEEKS. DRINKING WATER FROM CATCHMENTS AND
WELLS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE LESS POPULATED ISLANDS AND ATOLLS.

FOR THE FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA (FSM)...

THE PRESIDENT OF THE FSM HAS DECLARED A STATE OF EMERGENCY DUE TO
THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

YAP STATE....

THE GOVERNOR OF YAP STATE HAS DECLARED A STATE OF EMERGENCY DUE TO
THE ONGOING DROUGHT.

YAP...
DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS YAP. YAP IS NOW IN AN EXTREME DROUGHT
(DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4). RAINFALL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS WAS
WELL BELOW NORMAL AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 1 TO 2 MONTHS. SOME SPOTTY RAINFALL MAY PROVIDE TEMPORARY
RELIEF ACROSS MOST OF YAP STATE. HOWEVER...WE STILL EXPECT 1 OR 2
MORE PERIODS OF VERY DRY WEATHER BEFORE NORMAL RAINS RETURN. WATER
SUPPLIES NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND WATER CONSERVATION IS
ESSENTIAL. GRASS FIRES WILL INCREASE WITH THE DRYNESS. YELLOWING OF
VEGETATION WILL STILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT MONTH AND FOOD CROPS COULD
BECOME DAMAGED. THE RESERVOIR ON YAP ISLAND IS LIKELY ALREADY DRY.

OUTLYING ISLANDS OF YAP STATE...
EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS ALL OF THE OUTER ISLANDS AND ATOLLS
OF YAP STATE INCLUDING ULITHI...FAIS...FARAULEP...EAURIPIK...WOLEAI
AND SATAWAL. TRADE-WIND SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY AT BEST AND
RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 MONTHS. WATER
SUPPLIES ARE AT RISK AND CONSERVATION MEASURES ARE ESSENTIAL TO
AVOID DEPLETION OF WELLS AND CATCHMENTS. WELLS SHOULD BE MONITORED
FOR EXCESSIVE SALINITY. EMERGENCY DRINKING WATER MAY STILL NEED TO
BE TRANSPORTED TO SOME OF THE OUTER ISLANDS OF YAP STATE. SOME HEAVY
RAIN FELL ON ULITHI AND THE SOUTHEASTERN ATOLLS...BUT A DRY PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN.

DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS IS LIKELY ON ISLANDS AND ATOLLS OF YAP STATE.
THE HEALTH OF FOOD CROPS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED AND FOOD
ASSISTANCE COULD BECOME A REQUIREMENT IF DAMAGE TO PLANTS AND FRUITS
ARE IRREVERSIBLE.

CHUUK STATE...

THE GOVERNOR OF CHUUK STATE HAS DECLARED A DISASTER EMERGENCY DUE TO
THE ONGOING DROUGHT IMPACTS.

CHUUK LAGOON...
DROUGHT PERSISTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF CHUUK STATE
AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT MONTH OR SO.
WHILE SOME RAINFALL VISITED THOSE ISLANDS ANOTHER EXTENDED DRY
PERIOD IS POSSIBLE BEFORE NORMAL RAINFALL RETURNS. RAINFALL PATTERNS
HAVE IMPROVED FOR THE SOUTHERN MORTLOCK ISLANDS AND FOR CHUUK
LAGOON...BUT WATER CONSERVATION IS STILL ESSENTIAL FOR WENO ISLAND
AND TOL DUE TO THEIR LARGE POPULATIONS AND SMALL COASTAL PLAINS AND
AQUIFERS. THE SOUTHERN MORTLOCK ISLANDS ARE VERY LIKELY OUT OF THE
DROUGHT.

RESIDENTS MAY NEED TO BOIL WATER TO PREVENT GASTRO-INTESTINAL
DISEASES. ALSO...EMERGENCY TRANSPORT OF DRINKING WATER MAY STILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ATOLLS IF AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD
RETURNS. DROUGHT COULD WORSEN ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN CHUUK
STATE DURING THE COMING WEEKS. DROUGHT IMPACTS TO FOOD CROPS AND
VEGETATION HAVE BECOME MORE VISIBLE AND THE HEALTH OF FOOD CROPS
SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

LUKUNOR AND OTHER MORTLOCK ISLANDS...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED ON THE SOUTHERN MORTLOCKS. CLOSER
TO NORMAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE MORTLOCKS OVER THE
NEXT MONTH. WATER SUPPLIES NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND WATER
CONSERVATION IS ENCOURAGED. WELLS SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR EXCESSIVE
SALINITY. OVERALL...THE SOUTHERN MORTLOCK ISLANDS ARE IN VERY GOOD
SHAPE WITH RESPECT TO RAINFALL.

SERIOUS DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS MAY HAVE OCCURRED AND THE HEALTH OF
FOOD CROPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

POHNPEI STATE...

THE GOVERNOR OF POHNPEI STATE HAS DECLARED A STATE OF EMERGENCY
DUE TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT IMPACTS.

POHNPEI...
A MODERATE DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 1 OF 4) CONTINUES FOR POHNPEI
ISLAND. APRIL MONTHLY RAINFALL WAS ABOUT HALF OF NORMAL...BUT THE
ISLAND HAS EXPERIENCED SOME WELCOME RAIN OVER THE LAST 10 DAYS OR
SO. BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.
WATER CONSERVATION IS HIGHLY ENCOURAGED. ALSO...GRASS FIRES WILL
INCREASE AND RIVER FLOW WILL BE REDUCED FURTHER IF ANOTHER DRY SPELL
OCCURS. AGRICULTURAL CROPS ARE LIKELY BEING GROWN AT HIGHER AND
STEEPER ELEVATIONS. CLAY SOIL THAT IS BARE OF VEGETATION CAN BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO DEADLY MUDSLIDES WHEN HEAVY RAINS RETURN.

OUTLYING ISLANDS OF POHNPEI STATE...
PINGELAP...MOKIL...PAKIN AND SAPWUAFIK ATOLLS RECEIVED SOME RAINFALL
OVER THE LAST 10 DAYS. THAT RAIN WAS VERY SPOTTY AND ANOTHER DRY
PERIOD IS LIKELY. WATER SUPPLIES NEED TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY.
WATER CONSERVATION IS STILL RECOMMENDED AND WELLS SHOULD BE
MONITORED FOR EXCESSIVE SALINITY. EMERGENCY TRANSPORT OF DRINKING
WATER MAY BE NEEDED ON THE MORE NORTHERN POHNPEI ISLANDS. WE HAVE NO
KNOWLEDGE OF THE RAINFALL AND WATER RESOURCES ON OROLUK.

RESIDENTS MAY HAVE TO BOIL WATER TO PREVENT GASTRO-INTESTINAL
DISEASES. SOME DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
MONTHS AND THE HEALTH OF FOOD CROPS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

NUKUORO AND KAPINGAMARANGI WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ADEQUATE RAINFALL.

KOSRAE STATE....

THE GOVERNOR OF KOSRAE STATE HAS DECLARED A STATE OF EMERGENCY TO
ADDRESS THE DROUGHT IMPACTS.

KOSRAE...
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN VERY DRY ACROSS KOSRAE AS HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE
REMAINED FARTHER WEST DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. RAINFALL HAS
BEEN ONLY ABOUT 15 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT KOSRAE SO FAR IN APRIL.
HOWEVER...SOME PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
COMING WEEKS. KOSRAE MAY NOT EXPERIENCE A SEVERE DROUGHT DURING THIS
EL NINO EVENT...BUT IT IS STILL ADVISABLE TO MONITOR AND CONSERVE
WATER SUPPLIES AND PREPARE FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER IN
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.

THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

THE PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS HAS DECLARED A
STATE OF DISASTER DUE TO THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS THERE. MANY ATOLLS
HAVE REQUESTED AND OBTAINED ASSISTANCE. ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS ARE IN A SEVERE OR EXTREME DROUGHT.

NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...
THE NORTHERN ATOLLS INCLUDING WOTJE...AUR...UTIRIK...KWAJALEIN AND
EBEYE...BIKINI...AND ENEWETAK WILL RECEIVE ONLY ISOLATED TRADE-WIND
SHOWERS IN THE COMING MONTHS. THE DROUGHT WILL WORSEN WITH ONLY
SPOTTY RAINFALL CONTINUING THROUGH THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. ALL OF THESE
ATOLLS EXCEPT UTIRIK RECEIVED LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF THEIR NORMAL
RAINFALL SO FAR IN APRIL. UTIRIK HAS HAD 2.86 INCHES SO FAR IN APRIL
OR ABOUT 45 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WATER SUPPLIES ARE GREATLY AT RISK
AND CONSERVATION MEASURES ARE ESSENTIAL TO AVOID DEPLETION OF WELLS
AND CATCHMENTS. WELLS SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR EXCESSIVE SALINITY.
DRINKING WATER AND REVERSE OSMOSIS SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN TRANSPORTED TO
SEVERAL NORTHERN ISLANDS AND ATOLLS IN THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS. OTHER LOCATIONS MAY NEED ASSISTANCE.

MAJURO AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...
MAJURO...JALUIT...AILINGALAPLAP AND NEARBY ATOLLS WILL RECEIVE SOME
TRADE-WIND SHOWERS IN THE COMING WEEKS BUT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL. ALL OF THESE ATOLLS RECEIVED LESS
THAN ONE-THIRD OF THEIR NORMAL RAINFALL IN MARCH AND SO FAR IN
APRIL. MAJURO AND LIKELY MILI AND JALUIT RECEIVED SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL ON THE NIGHT OF 27 APRIL. WATER SUPPLIES ARE GREATLY AT
RISK AND CONSERVATION MEASURES ARE ESSENTIAL TO AVOID DEPLETION OF
WELLS AND CATCHMENTS. WELLS SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR EXCESSIVE
SALINITY. DRINKING WATER ASSISTANCE WILL BE NEEDED ON THE MORE
POPULATED ATOLLS. WATER RATIONING IS ONGOING FOR MAJURO DUE TO ITS
LARGE POPULATION AND LIMITED FRESH WATER STORAGE CAPACITY.

SEVERE DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS IS LIKELY ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS.
THE HEALTH OF FOOD CROPS SHOULD BE MONITORED...AND FOOD ASSISTANCE
COULD BECOME NECESSARY IF THE DAMAGE TO PLANTS AND FRUITS IS
IRREVERSIBLE. THE LACK OF FRESH WATER MAY RESULT IN A DETERIORATION
OF PEOPLES HEALTH WITH AN INCREASE IN PINK EYE AND GASTRO-INTESTINAL
PROBLEMS.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
THE EL NINO PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF 2016.
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS EL NINO WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY BEFORE
TRANSITIONING INTO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS BY THE SUMMER AND LIKELY LA
NINA CONDITIONS LATER IN THE YEAR. BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST AT MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH SPRING 2016 BEFORE RAINFALL
PATTERNS GRADUALLY RETURN TO NORMAL. THERE COULD BE A FEW WET DAYS
DURING THE NEXT FEW MONTHS THROUGH SPRING OF 2016...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL. RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OF MUCH
SHORTER DURATION...MUCH LESS INTENSE AND MUCH LESS FREQUENT THAN
NORMAL. THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS AND ATOLLS WILL LIKELY SEE RELIEF
BEFORE THE MORE NORTHERN ISLANDS AND ATOLLS.

RECENT RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...

                FEB    MAR    APR (1-27)  APR TO DATE  APR TO DATE
                                          NORMAL       % NORMAL

KOROR WSO       2.55   2.68   7.46        8.44         88
PELELIU         1.93   2.63   3.80        8.10         47
YAP WSO         1.77   0.70   2.56        5.08         45
ULITHI          2.61   0.62   3.21        4.59         70
WOLEAI          0.22   0.58   1.87        9.19         20
GUAM INTL AP    3.63   1.63   1.21        2.98         41
ROTA            2.07   4.36   0.88        3.68         24
TINIAN          1.61   3.00   0.67        3.50         19
SAIPAN          2.72   3.29   0.97        2.07         45
CHUUK           2.59   7.08   7.87        9.41         84
FANANU          1.74   0.61   3.97        7.90         50
ONUON           2.56   0.36   3.79        7.63         50
PULUWAT         4.81   1.24   2.13        7.62         28
LUKUNOR         5.46   7.70  12.41       10.27        121
POHNPEI         4.64   5.76   8.02       15.45         52
PINGELAP        2.65   1.52   3.74       11.68         32
KOSRAE         14.56   5.17   2.43       16.92         14
KWAJALEIN       0.46   1.05   1.07        6.76         16
JALUIT          3.69   1.63   0.27       11.84          2
WOTJE           0.05   0.28   0.16(1-25)  3.52          5
UTIRIK          0.94   0.77   2.86(1-25)  6.41         45
MAJURO          3.17   1.33   1.39        8.55         16

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
A DRY ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO CAUSE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF MICRONESIA. ALTHOUGH SPOTTY
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE COMING WEEKS...THE DROUGHT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS MOST OF MICRONESIA. IN GENERAL...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION EXCEPT FOR KOSRAE...
KAPINGAMARANGI...NUKUORO AND THE SOUTHERN CHUUK ATOLLS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF 2016.

THE MARIANA ISLANDS...

THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS AT ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN WITH LESS THAN A
HALF INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. DRYNESS WILL
ALSO PERSIST FOR THE FAR NORTHERN CNMI. LONGER RANGE MODELS INDICATE
RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE NEXT MONTH OR
TWO AT LEAST.

GUAM...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE ONLY A QUARTER INCH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH
OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. LONGER RANGE
MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MAY
OR JUNE.

THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU...

KOROR...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED BECAUSE A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY
TO CATCH RAIN WATER.

OUTLYING ISLANDS AND ATOLLS OF PALAU...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR MOST ISLANDS OF PALAU THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED BECAUSE A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY TO CATCH RAIN WATER.

FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA...

YAP STATE...
YAP STATE WILL REMAIN IN AN AREA OF BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS...BUT SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
COMING WEEKS. SPECIFIC ISLANDS AFFECTED INCLUDE YAP AND FAIS ALONG
WITH ALL YAP STATE ATOLLS. LATEST COMPUTER MODELS SHOW UP TO ONE
INCH OF RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND ABOUT TWO INCHES THROUGH
THE NEXT 10 DAYS. CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED BECAUSE
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL AFFORD THE OPPORTUNITY TO CATCH RAIN WATER.

CHUUK STATE...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT FANANU AND AREAS NORTH OF WENO CAN
EXPECT ONLY A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT 10
DAYS. NEAR THE CHUUK LAGOON AREA...ABOUT ONE INCH OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. SOUTHERN ISLANDS OF CHUUK STATE
SHOULD RECEIVE ONE OR TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT 10
DAYS.

CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED IN GOOD WORKING ORDER.
LONGER RANGE MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL WILL STILL BE LOWER THAN
NORMAL THROUGH THE NEXT MONTH OR TWO.

POHNPEI STATE...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE IN THE
COMING WEEKS. VERY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT A PATTERN OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE COULD DEVELOP NEXT
WEEK AND PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS
POHNPEI STATE THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD
BE MAINTAINED IN GOOD WORKING ORDER BECAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
COULD PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY TO CATCH RAIN WATER.

KOSRAE STATE...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE IN THE
COMING WEEKS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 3
TO 5 INCHES FOR KOSRAE THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED IN GOOD WORKING ORDER BECAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY
SHOWERS WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY TO CATCH RAIN WATER.

THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

MAJURO...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES WILL PRODUCE
SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN NEXT WEEK. PEOPLE SHOULD MAINTAIN
CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT BECAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WILL PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO CATCH RAIN WATER.

NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...
VERY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOR NORTHERN AREAS NEAR AUR...WOTJE...
UTIRIK...KWAJALEIN AND EBEYE...BIKINI AND ENEWETAK ATOLLS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONLY A QUARTER INCH UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN HALF INCH
FROM PASSING TRADE-WIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
THE DROUGHT WILL BECOME WORSE.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES FOR JALUIT...
AILINGALAPLAP AND ATOLLS SOUTH OF MAJURO WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. RELATIVELY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE COMING WEEKS SO CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED BECAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WILL PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO CATCH RAIN WATER.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE
THURSDAY MAY 12...2016...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY
TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATING OFFICE FOR THE LATEST
WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...

NWS WFO GUAM...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUAM/ /UNDER MENU ITEM CLIMATE...MORE/
...DROUGHT STATEMENT EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND
CHUUK STATE...

PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.SOEST.HAWAII.EDU/MET/ENSO/INDEX2.HTML

NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING...
HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER...THE NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION CENTER IN
ASHEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE
CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND
SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU
FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES AT
MAJURO...POHNPEI...CHUUK...YAP AND KOROR AND THE USAID SUBREGIONAL
OFFICE MAJURO AND THE INTERNATIONAL OFFICE FOR MIGRATION OFFICES IN
POHNPEI...CHUUK...YAP AND MAJURO.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...

WFO TIYAN GUAM
3232 HUENEME RD
BARRIGADA GU 96913
PHONE: 671-472-0946
W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS)

SIMPSON/GUARD/AYDLETT

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