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000
FGUS75 KABQ 041333
ESFABQ

NMZ501>540-312359-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
628 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
...NEAR NORMAL FLOOD RISK FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
...BELOW NORMAL FLOOD RISK FOR CATRON AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...

...EXISTING CONDITIONS...

PRECIPITATION...
LONG-TERM PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 90-DAY PERIOD HAS BEEN NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS ALL CLIMATE DIVISIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. MEDIUM AND SHORT-TERM PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 60 AND
30-DAY PERIODS RESPECTIVELY HAS BEEN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
ALL CLIMATE DIVISIONS. THE ENTIRE MONTH OF JANUARY AND THE LAST WEEK
OF FEBRUARY WERE PARTICULARLY BENEFICIAL WITH SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND
SNOW OBSERVED.

PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE WINTER PERIOD HAVE AVERAGED 2 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS SEVERAL AREAS.

LOCATION                    PRECIPITATION (DEC-FEB)

CHAMA                               4.94
WOLF CANYON                         4.99
LOS ALAMOS                          1.46
EAGLE NEST                          4.22
NAVAJO DAM                          2.96
GALLUP                              2.89
ABQ FOOTHILLS                       3.27
MOUNTAINAIR                         2.25
RUIDOSO                             1.67
GILA HOT SPRINGS                    3.47

SNOWPACK...
THE CURRENT SNOWPACK IN THE NORTHERN NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS RANGES
FROM 101 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN ON THE CANADIAN RIVER BASIN...70
PERCENT ON THE PECOS RIVER BASIN...79 PERCENT ON THE RIO GRANDE
BASIN...TO 70 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN IN THE SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN.
SNOWPACK IN THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS IS 43 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN...
68 PERCENT IN THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...AND A DISMAL
22 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN IN THE UPPER GILA BASIN OF CATRON COUNTY.

RESERVOIR CONSIDERATIONS...
STORAGE REMAINS WELL BELOW NORMAL AT NEARLY ALL LAKES AND
RESERVOIRS IN NEW MEXICO...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW STORAGE
AREAS ALONG THE PECOS RIVER BASIN. THE STATEWIDE AVERAGE IS JUST
23 PERCENT OF CAPACITY AS OF MARCH 1ST.

STREAMFLOW...
RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUGGESTS PEAK
FLOW CONDITIONS FROM SPRING SNOWMELT IN THE PERIOD FROM MID MAY
TO EARLY JUNE. LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO EXPERIENCE
TYPICAL PEAK FLOW FROM LATE MARCH TO EARLY APRIL. CURRENT
STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ARE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
MOST GAGE LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO HAVE INDICATED LITTLE
TO NO RESPONSE TO SPRING SNOWMELT AT THIS TIME.

DROUGHT...
LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE WINTER MONTHS.
HOWEVER...ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 3 MONTHS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN IMPROVEMENTS TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH MARCH. THE LATEST DROUGHT
MONITOR FROM FEBRUARY 24TH INDICATED 26 PERCENT OF NEW MEXICO IN
SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT WITH 68 PERCENT OF THE STATE IN MODERATE
TO EXTREME CONDITIONS.

...OUTLOOKS...

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2015
FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. THE
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2015 SUGGESTS EQUAL CHANCES OF
BELOW...NEAR...OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...
APRIL... MAY 2015 FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
ENTIRE STATE. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...APRIL...MAY 2015
SUGGESTS EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW...NEAR...OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS FROM THE
WINTER SEASON...ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION FORECASTS...
HISTORICAL RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION THIS SPRING...THERE WILL BE A NEAR NORMAL
FLOOD RISK FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND A BELOW NORMAL
FLOOD RISK FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT EARLY IN THE SNOW
ACCUMULATION SEASON AND CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE BEFORE RUNOFF
BEGINS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RIVER OR STREAM FLOODING
WOULD INCREASE IN THE EVENT HEAVY RAINFALL WERE TO OCCUR IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS WHILE SNOW MELT RUNOFF IS PEAKING.

THE ALBUQUERQUE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA IS SERVICED BY THE WEST GULF
RIVER FORECAST CENTER...THE ARKANSAS BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER...
AND THE COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER. THESE REGIONAL
FORECAST CENTERS ISSUE A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO
UPDATE THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES. PLEASE VISIT THE LINKS
BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/WGRFC
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABRFC
WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV

YOU CAN ALSO FIND ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECASTS ON
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB PAGE AT:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABQ

FOR QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS OUTLOOK YOU CAN CONTACT BRIAN
GUYER OR CHUCK JONES...ACTING SERVICE HYDROLOGISTS...AT 505-243-0702
OR BY EMAIL AT BRIAN.GUYER@NOAA.GOV OR CHARLES.H.JONES@NOAA.GOV.

&&

$$

GUYER




000
FGUS75 KABQ 041333
ESFABQ

NMZ501>540-312359-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
628 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
...NEAR NORMAL FLOOD RISK FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
...BELOW NORMAL FLOOD RISK FOR CATRON AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...

...EXISTING CONDITIONS...

PRECIPITATION...
LONG-TERM PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 90-DAY PERIOD HAS BEEN NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS ALL CLIMATE DIVISIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. MEDIUM AND SHORT-TERM PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 60 AND
30-DAY PERIODS RESPECTIVELY HAS BEEN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
ALL CLIMATE DIVISIONS. THE ENTIRE MONTH OF JANUARY AND THE LAST WEEK
OF FEBRUARY WERE PARTICULARLY BENEFICIAL WITH SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND
SNOW OBSERVED.

PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE WINTER PERIOD HAVE AVERAGED 2 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS SEVERAL AREAS.

LOCATION                    PRECIPITATION (DEC-FEB)

CHAMA                               4.94
WOLF CANYON                         4.99
LOS ALAMOS                          1.46
EAGLE NEST                          4.22
NAVAJO DAM                          2.96
GALLUP                              2.89
ABQ FOOTHILLS                       3.27
MOUNTAINAIR                         2.25
RUIDOSO                             1.67
GILA HOT SPRINGS                    3.47

SNOWPACK...
THE CURRENT SNOWPACK IN THE NORTHERN NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS RANGES
FROM 101 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN ON THE CANADIAN RIVER BASIN...70
PERCENT ON THE PECOS RIVER BASIN...79 PERCENT ON THE RIO GRANDE
BASIN...TO 70 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN IN THE SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN.
SNOWPACK IN THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS IS 43 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN...
68 PERCENT IN THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...AND A DISMAL
22 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN IN THE UPPER GILA BASIN OF CATRON COUNTY.

RESERVOIR CONSIDERATIONS...
STORAGE REMAINS WELL BELOW NORMAL AT NEARLY ALL LAKES AND
RESERVOIRS IN NEW MEXICO...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW STORAGE
AREAS ALONG THE PECOS RIVER BASIN. THE STATEWIDE AVERAGE IS JUST
23 PERCENT OF CAPACITY AS OF MARCH 1ST.

STREAMFLOW...
RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUGGESTS PEAK
FLOW CONDITIONS FROM SPRING SNOWMELT IN THE PERIOD FROM MID MAY
TO EARLY JUNE. LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO EXPERIENCE
TYPICAL PEAK FLOW FROM LATE MARCH TO EARLY APRIL. CURRENT
STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ARE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
MOST GAGE LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO HAVE INDICATED LITTLE
TO NO RESPONSE TO SPRING SNOWMELT AT THIS TIME.

DROUGHT...
LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE WINTER MONTHS.
HOWEVER...ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 3 MONTHS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN IMPROVEMENTS TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH MARCH. THE LATEST DROUGHT
MONITOR FROM FEBRUARY 24TH INDICATED 26 PERCENT OF NEW MEXICO IN
SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT WITH 68 PERCENT OF THE STATE IN MODERATE
TO EXTREME CONDITIONS.

...OUTLOOKS...

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2015
FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. THE
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2015 SUGGESTS EQUAL CHANCES OF
BELOW...NEAR...OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...
APRIL... MAY 2015 FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
ENTIRE STATE. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...APRIL...MAY 2015
SUGGESTS EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW...NEAR...OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS FROM THE
WINTER SEASON...ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION FORECASTS...
HISTORICAL RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION THIS SPRING...THERE WILL BE A NEAR NORMAL
FLOOD RISK FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND A BELOW NORMAL
FLOOD RISK FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT EARLY IN THE SNOW
ACCUMULATION SEASON AND CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE BEFORE RUNOFF
BEGINS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RIVER OR STREAM FLOODING
WOULD INCREASE IN THE EVENT HEAVY RAINFALL WERE TO OCCUR IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS WHILE SNOW MELT RUNOFF IS PEAKING.

THE ALBUQUERQUE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA IS SERVICED BY THE WEST GULF
RIVER FORECAST CENTER...THE ARKANSAS BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER...
AND THE COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER. THESE REGIONAL
FORECAST CENTERS ISSUE A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO
UPDATE THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES. PLEASE VISIT THE LINKS
BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/WGRFC
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABRFC
WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV

YOU CAN ALSO FIND ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECASTS ON
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB PAGE AT:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABQ

FOR QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS OUTLOOK YOU CAN CONTACT BRIAN
GUYER OR CHUCK JONES...ACTING SERVICE HYDROLOGISTS...AT 505-243-0702
OR BY EMAIL AT BRIAN.GUYER@NOAA.GOV OR CHARLES.H.JONES@NOAA.GOV.

&&

$$

GUYER




000
FGUS75 KABQ 041332
ESFABQ

NMZ501>540-312359-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
628 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
...NEAR NORMAL FLOOD RISK FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
...BELOW NORMAL FLOOD RISK FOR CATRON AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...

...EXISTING CONDITIONS...

PRECIPITATION...
LONG-TERM PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 90-DAY PERIOD HAS BEEN NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS ALL CLIMATE DIVISIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. MEDIUM AND SHORT-TERM PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 60 AND
30-DAY PERIODS RESPECTIVELY HAS BEEN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
ALL CLIMATE DIVISIONS. THE ENTIRE MONTH OF JANUARY AND THE LAST WEEK
OF FEBRUARY WERE PARTICULARLY BENEFICIAL WITH SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND
SNOW OBSERVED.

PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE WINTER PERIOD HAVE AVERAGED 2 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS SEVERAL AREAS.

LOCATIONPRECIPITATION (DEC-FEB)

CHAMA                               4.94
WOLF CANYON                         4.99
LOS ALAMOS                          1.46
EAGLE NEST                          4.22
NAVAJO DAM                          2.96
GALLUP                              2.89
ABQ FOOTHILLS                       3.27
MOUNTAINAIR                         2.25
RUIDOSO                             1.67
GILA HOT SPRINGS                    3.47

SNOWPACK...
THE CURRENT SNOWPACK IN THE NORTHERN NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS RANGES
FROM 101 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN ON THE CANADIAN RIVER BASIN...70
PERCENT ON THE PECOS RIVER BASIN...79 PERCENT ON THE RIO GRANDE
BASIN...TO 70 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN IN THE SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN.
SNOWPACK IN THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS IS 43 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN...
68 PERCENT IN THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...AND A DISMAL
22 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN IN THE UPPER GILA BASIN OF CATRON COUNTY.

RESERVOIR CONSIDERATIONS...
STORAGE REMAINS WELL BELOW NORMAL AT NEARLY ALL LAKES AND
RESERVOIRS IN NEW MEXICO...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW STORAGE
AREAS ALONG THE PECOS RIVER BASIN. THE STATEWIDE AVERAGE IS JUST
23 PERCENT OF CAPACITY AS OF MARCH 1ST.

STREAMFLOW...
RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUGGESTS PEAK
FLOW CONDITIONS FROM SPRING SNOWMELT IN THE PERIOD FROM MID MAY
TO EARLY JUNE. LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO EXPERIENCE
TYPICAL PEAK FLOW FROM LATE MARCH TO EARLY APRIL. CURRENT
STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ARE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
MOST GAGE LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO HAVE INDICATED LITTLE
TO NO RESPONSE TO SPRING SNOWMELT AT THIS TIME.

DROUGHT...
LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE WINTER MONTHS.
HOWEVER...ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 3 MONTHS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN IMPROVEMENTS TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH MARCH. THE LATEST DROUGHT
MONITOR FROM FEBRUARY 24TH INDICATED 26 PERCENT OF NEW MEXICO IN
SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT WITH 68 PERCENT OF THE STATE IN MODERATE
TO EXTREME CONDITIONS.

...OUTLOOKS...

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2015
FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. THE
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2015 SUGGESTS EQUAL CHANCES OF
BELOW...NEAR...OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...
APRIL... MAY 2015 FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
ENTIRE STATE. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...APRIL...MAY 2015
SUGGESTS EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW...NEAR...OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS FROM THE
WINTER SEASON...ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION FORECASTS...
HISTORICAL RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION THIS SPRING...THERE WILL BE A NEAR NORMAL
FLOOD RISK FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND A BELOW NORMAL
FLOOD RISK FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT EARLY IN THE SNOW
ACCUMULATION SEASON AND CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE BEFORE RUNOFF
BEGINS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RIVER OR STREAM FLOODING
WOULD INCREASE IN THE EVENT HEAVY RAINFALL WERE TO OCCUR IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS WHILE SNOW MELT RUNOFF IS PEAKING.

THE ALBUQUERQUE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA IS SERVICED BY THE WEST GULF
RIVER FORECAST CENTER...THE ARKANSAS BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER...
AND THE COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER. THESE REGIONAL
FORECAST CENTERS ISSUE A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO
UPDATE THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES. PLEASE VISIT THE LINKS
BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/WGRFC
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABRFC
WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV

YOU CAN ALSO FIND ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECASTS ON
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB PAGE AT:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABQ

FOR QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS OUTLOOK YOU CAN CONTACT BRIAN
GUYER OR CHUCK JONES...ACTING SERVICE HYDROLOGISTS...AT 505-243-0702
OR BY EMAIL AT BRIAN.GUYER@NOAA.GOV OR CHARLES.H.JONES@NOAA.GOV.

&&

$$

GUYER





000
FGUS75 KABQ 041332
ESFABQ

NMZ501>540-312359-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
628 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
...NEAR NORMAL FLOOD RISK FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
...BELOW NORMAL FLOOD RISK FOR CATRON AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...

...EXISTING CONDITIONS...

PRECIPITATION...
LONG-TERM PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 90-DAY PERIOD HAS BEEN NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS ALL CLIMATE DIVISIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. MEDIUM AND SHORT-TERM PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 60 AND
30-DAY PERIODS RESPECTIVELY HAS BEEN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
ALL CLIMATE DIVISIONS. THE ENTIRE MONTH OF JANUARY AND THE LAST WEEK
OF FEBRUARY WERE PARTICULARLY BENEFICIAL WITH SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND
SNOW OBSERVED.

PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE WINTER PERIOD HAVE AVERAGED 2 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS SEVERAL AREAS.

LOCATIONPRECIPITATION (DEC-FEB)

CHAMA                               4.94
WOLF CANYON                         4.99
LOS ALAMOS                          1.46
EAGLE NEST                          4.22
NAVAJO DAM                          2.96
GALLUP                              2.89
ABQ FOOTHILLS                       3.27
MOUNTAINAIR                         2.25
RUIDOSO                             1.67
GILA HOT SPRINGS                    3.47

SNOWPACK...
THE CURRENT SNOWPACK IN THE NORTHERN NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS RANGES
FROM 101 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN ON THE CANADIAN RIVER BASIN...70
PERCENT ON THE PECOS RIVER BASIN...79 PERCENT ON THE RIO GRANDE
BASIN...TO 70 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN IN THE SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN.
SNOWPACK IN THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS IS 43 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN...
68 PERCENT IN THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...AND A DISMAL
22 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN IN THE UPPER GILA BASIN OF CATRON COUNTY.

RESERVOIR CONSIDERATIONS...
STORAGE REMAINS WELL BELOW NORMAL AT NEARLY ALL LAKES AND
RESERVOIRS IN NEW MEXICO...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW STORAGE
AREAS ALONG THE PECOS RIVER BASIN. THE STATEWIDE AVERAGE IS JUST
23 PERCENT OF CAPACITY AS OF MARCH 1ST.

STREAMFLOW...
RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUGGESTS PEAK
FLOW CONDITIONS FROM SPRING SNOWMELT IN THE PERIOD FROM MID MAY
TO EARLY JUNE. LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO EXPERIENCE
TYPICAL PEAK FLOW FROM LATE MARCH TO EARLY APRIL. CURRENT
STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ARE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
MOST GAGE LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO HAVE INDICATED LITTLE
TO NO RESPONSE TO SPRING SNOWMELT AT THIS TIME.

DROUGHT...
LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE WINTER MONTHS.
HOWEVER...ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 3 MONTHS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN IMPROVEMENTS TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH MARCH. THE LATEST DROUGHT
MONITOR FROM FEBRUARY 24TH INDICATED 26 PERCENT OF NEW MEXICO IN
SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT WITH 68 PERCENT OF THE STATE IN MODERATE
TO EXTREME CONDITIONS.

...OUTLOOKS...

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2015
FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. THE
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2015 SUGGESTS EQUAL CHANCES OF
BELOW...NEAR...OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...
APRIL... MAY 2015 FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
ENTIRE STATE. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...APRIL...MAY 2015
SUGGESTS EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW...NEAR...OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS FROM THE
WINTER SEASON...ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION FORECASTS...
HISTORICAL RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION THIS SPRING...THERE WILL BE A NEAR NORMAL
FLOOD RISK FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND A BELOW NORMAL
FLOOD RISK FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT EARLY IN THE SNOW
ACCUMULATION SEASON AND CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE BEFORE RUNOFF
BEGINS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RIVER OR STREAM FLOODING
WOULD INCREASE IN THE EVENT HEAVY RAINFALL WERE TO OCCUR IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS WHILE SNOW MELT RUNOFF IS PEAKING.

THE ALBUQUERQUE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA IS SERVICED BY THE WEST GULF
RIVER FORECAST CENTER...THE ARKANSAS BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER...
AND THE COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER. THESE REGIONAL
FORECAST CENTERS ISSUE A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO
UPDATE THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES. PLEASE VISIT THE LINKS
BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/WGRFC
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABRFC
WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV

YOU CAN ALSO FIND ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECASTS ON
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB PAGE AT:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABQ

FOR QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS OUTLOOK YOU CAN CONTACT BRIAN
GUYER OR CHUCK JONES...ACTING SERVICE HYDROLOGISTS...AT 505-243-0702
OR BY EMAIL AT BRIAN.GUYER@NOAA.GOV OR CHARLES.H.JONES@NOAA.GOV.

&&

$$

GUYER




000
FGUS75 KABQ 041332
ESFABQ

NMZ501>540-312359-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
628 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
...NEAR NORMAL FLOOD RISK FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
...BELOW NORMAL FLOOD RISK FOR CATRON AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...

...EXISTING CONDITIONS...

PRECIPITATION...
LONG-TERM PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 90-DAY PERIOD HAS BEEN NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS ALL CLIMATE DIVISIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. MEDIUM AND SHORT-TERM PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 60 AND
30-DAY PERIODS RESPECTIVELY HAS BEEN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
ALL CLIMATE DIVISIONS. THE ENTIRE MONTH OF JANUARY AND THE LAST WEEK
OF FEBRUARY WERE PARTICULARLY BENEFICIAL WITH SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND
SNOW OBSERVED.

PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE WINTER PERIOD HAVE AVERAGED 2 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS SEVERAL AREAS.

LOCATIONPRECIPITATION (DEC-FEB)

CHAMA                               4.94
WOLF CANYON                         4.99
LOS ALAMOS                          1.46
EAGLE NEST                          4.22
NAVAJO DAM                          2.96
GALLUP                              2.89
ABQ FOOTHILLS                       3.27
MOUNTAINAIR                         2.25
RUIDOSO                             1.67
GILA HOT SPRINGS                    3.47

SNOWPACK...
THE CURRENT SNOWPACK IN THE NORTHERN NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS RANGES
FROM 101 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN ON THE CANADIAN RIVER BASIN...70
PERCENT ON THE PECOS RIVER BASIN...79 PERCENT ON THE RIO GRANDE
BASIN...TO 70 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN IN THE SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN.
SNOWPACK IN THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS IS 43 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN...
68 PERCENT IN THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...AND A DISMAL
22 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN IN THE UPPER GILA BASIN OF CATRON COUNTY.

RESERVOIR CONSIDERATIONS...
STORAGE REMAINS WELL BELOW NORMAL AT NEARLY ALL LAKES AND
RESERVOIRS IN NEW MEXICO...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW STORAGE
AREAS ALONG THE PECOS RIVER BASIN. THE STATEWIDE AVERAGE IS JUST
23 PERCENT OF CAPACITY AS OF MARCH 1ST.

STREAMFLOW...
RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUGGESTS PEAK
FLOW CONDITIONS FROM SPRING SNOWMELT IN THE PERIOD FROM MID MAY
TO EARLY JUNE. LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO EXPERIENCE
TYPICAL PEAK FLOW FROM LATE MARCH TO EARLY APRIL. CURRENT
STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ARE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
MOST GAGE LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO HAVE INDICATED LITTLE
TO NO RESPONSE TO SPRING SNOWMELT AT THIS TIME.

DROUGHT...
LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE WINTER MONTHS.
HOWEVER...ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 3 MONTHS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN IMPROVEMENTS TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH MARCH. THE LATEST DROUGHT
MONITOR FROM FEBRUARY 24TH INDICATED 26 PERCENT OF NEW MEXICO IN
SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT WITH 68 PERCENT OF THE STATE IN MODERATE
TO EXTREME CONDITIONS.

...OUTLOOKS...

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2015
FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. THE
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2015 SUGGESTS EQUAL CHANCES OF
BELOW...NEAR...OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...
APRIL... MAY 2015 FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
ENTIRE STATE. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...APRIL...MAY 2015
SUGGESTS EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW...NEAR...OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS FROM THE
WINTER SEASON...ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION FORECASTS...
HISTORICAL RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION THIS SPRING...THERE WILL BE A NEAR NORMAL
FLOOD RISK FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND A BELOW NORMAL
FLOOD RISK FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT EARLY IN THE SNOW
ACCUMULATION SEASON AND CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE BEFORE RUNOFF
BEGINS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RIVER OR STREAM FLOODING
WOULD INCREASE IN THE EVENT HEAVY RAINFALL WERE TO OCCUR IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS WHILE SNOW MELT RUNOFF IS PEAKING.

THE ALBUQUERQUE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA IS SERVICED BY THE WEST GULF
RIVER FORECAST CENTER...THE ARKANSAS BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER...
AND THE COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER. THESE REGIONAL
FORECAST CENTERS ISSUE A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO
UPDATE THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES. PLEASE VISIT THE LINKS
BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/WGRFC
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABRFC
WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV

YOU CAN ALSO FIND ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECASTS ON
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB PAGE AT:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABQ

FOR QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS OUTLOOK YOU CAN CONTACT BRIAN
GUYER OR CHUCK JONES...ACTING SERVICE HYDROLOGISTS...AT 505-243-0702
OR BY EMAIL AT BRIAN.GUYER@NOAA.GOV OR CHARLES.H.JONES@NOAA.GOV.

&&

$$

GUYER





000
FGUS75 KABQ 041332
ESFABQ

NMZ501>540-312359-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
628 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
...NEAR NORMAL FLOOD RISK FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
...BELOW NORMAL FLOOD RISK FOR CATRON AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...

...EXISTING CONDITIONS...

PRECIPITATION...
LONG-TERM PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 90-DAY PERIOD HAS BEEN NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS ALL CLIMATE DIVISIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. MEDIUM AND SHORT-TERM PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 60 AND
30-DAY PERIODS RESPECTIVELY HAS BEEN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
ALL CLIMATE DIVISIONS. THE ENTIRE MONTH OF JANUARY AND THE LAST WEEK
OF FEBRUARY WERE PARTICULARLY BENEFICIAL WITH SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND
SNOW OBSERVED.

PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE WINTER PERIOD HAVE AVERAGED 2 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS SEVERAL AREAS.

LOCATIONPRECIPITATION (DEC-FEB)

CHAMA                               4.94
WOLF CANYON                         4.99
LOS ALAMOS                          1.46
EAGLE NEST                          4.22
NAVAJO DAM                          2.96
GALLUP                              2.89
ABQ FOOTHILLS                       3.27
MOUNTAINAIR                         2.25
RUIDOSO                             1.67
GILA HOT SPRINGS                    3.47

SNOWPACK...
THE CURRENT SNOWPACK IN THE NORTHERN NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS RANGES
FROM 101 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN ON THE CANADIAN RIVER BASIN...70
PERCENT ON THE PECOS RIVER BASIN...79 PERCENT ON THE RIO GRANDE
BASIN...TO 70 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN IN THE SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN.
SNOWPACK IN THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS IS 43 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN...
68 PERCENT IN THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...AND A DISMAL
22 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN IN THE UPPER GILA BASIN OF CATRON COUNTY.

RESERVOIR CONSIDERATIONS...
STORAGE REMAINS WELL BELOW NORMAL AT NEARLY ALL LAKES AND
RESERVOIRS IN NEW MEXICO...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW STORAGE
AREAS ALONG THE PECOS RIVER BASIN. THE STATEWIDE AVERAGE IS JUST
23 PERCENT OF CAPACITY AS OF MARCH 1ST.

STREAMFLOW...
RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUGGESTS PEAK
FLOW CONDITIONS FROM SPRING SNOWMELT IN THE PERIOD FROM MID MAY
TO EARLY JUNE. LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO EXPERIENCE
TYPICAL PEAK FLOW FROM LATE MARCH TO EARLY APRIL. CURRENT
STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ARE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
MOST GAGE LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO HAVE INDICATED LITTLE
TO NO RESPONSE TO SPRING SNOWMELT AT THIS TIME.

DROUGHT...
LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE WINTER MONTHS.
HOWEVER...ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 3 MONTHS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN IMPROVEMENTS TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH MARCH. THE LATEST DROUGHT
MONITOR FROM FEBRUARY 24TH INDICATED 26 PERCENT OF NEW MEXICO IN
SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT WITH 68 PERCENT OF THE STATE IN MODERATE
TO EXTREME CONDITIONS.

...OUTLOOKS...

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2015
FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. THE
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2015 SUGGESTS EQUAL CHANCES OF
BELOW...NEAR...OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...
APRIL... MAY 2015 FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
ENTIRE STATE. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...APRIL...MAY 2015
SUGGESTS EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW...NEAR...OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS FROM THE
WINTER SEASON...ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION FORECASTS...
HISTORICAL RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION THIS SPRING...THERE WILL BE A NEAR NORMAL
FLOOD RISK FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND A BELOW NORMAL
FLOOD RISK FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT EARLY IN THE SNOW
ACCUMULATION SEASON AND CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE BEFORE RUNOFF
BEGINS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RIVER OR STREAM FLOODING
WOULD INCREASE IN THE EVENT HEAVY RAINFALL WERE TO OCCUR IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS WHILE SNOW MELT RUNOFF IS PEAKING.

THE ALBUQUERQUE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA IS SERVICED BY THE WEST GULF
RIVER FORECAST CENTER...THE ARKANSAS BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER...
AND THE COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER. THESE REGIONAL
FORECAST CENTERS ISSUE A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO
UPDATE THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES. PLEASE VISIT THE LINKS
BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/WGRFC
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABRFC
WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV

YOU CAN ALSO FIND ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECASTS ON
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB PAGE AT:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABQ

FOR QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS OUTLOOK YOU CAN CONTACT BRIAN
GUYER OR CHUCK JONES...ACTING SERVICE HYDROLOGISTS...AT 505-243-0702
OR BY EMAIL AT BRIAN.GUYER@NOAA.GOV OR CHARLES.H.JONES@NOAA.GOV.

&&

$$

GUYER




000
FGUS75 KABQ 041329
ESFABQ

NMZ501>540-312359-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
628 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
...NEAR NORMAL FLOOD RISK FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
...BELOW NORMAL FLOOD RISK FOR CATRON AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...

...EXISTING CONDITIONS...

PRECIPITATION...
LONG-TERM PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 90-DAY PERIOD HAS BEEN NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS ALL CLIMATE DIVISIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. MEDIUM AND SHORT-TERM PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 60 AND
30-DAY PERIODS RESPECTIVELY HAS BEEN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
ALL CLIMATE DIVISIONS. THE ENTIRE MONTH OF JANUARY AND THE LAST WEEK
OF FEBRUARY WERE PARTICULARLY BENEFICIAL WITH SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND
SNOW OBSERVED.

PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE WINTER PERIOD HAVE AVERAGED 2 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS SEVERAL AREAS.

LOCATIONPRECIPITATION (DEC-FEB)

CHAMA4.94
WOLF CANYON4.99
LOS ALAMOS1.46
EAGLE NEST4.22
NAVAJO DAM2.96
GALLUP2.89
ABQ FOOTHILLS3.27
MOUNTAINAIR2.25
RUIDOSO1.67
GILA HOT SPRINGS3.47

SNOWPACK...
THE CURRENT SNOWPACK IN THE NORTHERN NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS RANGES
FROM 101 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN ON THE CANADIAN RIVER BASIN...70
PERCENT ON THE PECOS RIVER BASIN...79 PERCENT ON THE RIO GRANDE
BASIN...TO 70 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN IN THE SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN.
SNOWPACK IN THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS IS 43 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN...
68 PERCENT IN THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...AND A DISMAL
22 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN IN THE UPPER GILA BASIN OF CATRON COUNTY.

RESERVOIR CONSIDERATIONS...
STORAGE REMAINS WELL BELOW NORMAL AT NEARLY ALL LAKES AND
RESERVOIRS IN NEW MEXICO...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW STORAGE
AREAS ALONG THE PECOS RIVER BASIN. THE STATEWIDE AVERAGE IS JUST
23 PERCENT OF CAPACITY AS OF MARCH 1ST.

STREAMFLOW...
RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUGGESTS PEAK
FLOW CONDITIONS FROM SPRING SNOWMELT IN THE PERIOD FROM MID MAY
TO EARLY JUNE. LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO EXPERIENCE
TYPICAL PEAK FLOW FROM LATE MARCH TO EARLY APRIL. CURRENT
STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ARE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
MOST GAGE LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO HAVE INDICATED LITTLE
TO NO RESPONSE TO SPRING SNOWMELT AT THIS TIME.

DROUGHT...
LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE WINTER MONTHS.
HOWEVER...ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 3 MONTHS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN IMPROVEMENTS TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH MARCH. THE LATEST DROUGHT
MONITOR FROM FEBRUARY 24TH INDICATED 26 PERCENT OF NEW MEXICO IN
SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT WITH 68 PERCENT OF THE STATE IN MODERATE
TO EXTREME CONDITIONS.

...OUTLOOKS...

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2015
FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. THE
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2015 SUGGESTS EQUAL CHANCES OF
BELOW...NEAR...OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...
APRIL... MAY 2015 FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
ENTIRE STATE. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...APRIL...MAY 2015
SUGGESTS EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW...NEAR...OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS FROM THE
WINTER SEASON...ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION FORECASTS...
HISTORICAL RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION THIS SPRING...THERE WILL BE A NEAR NORMAL
FLOOD RISK FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND A BELOW NORMAL
FLOOD RISK FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT EARLY IN THE SNOW
ACCUMULATION SEASON AND CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE BEFORE RUNOFF
BEGINS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RIVER OR STREAM FLOODING
WOULD INCREASE IN THE EVENT HEAVY RAINFALL WERE TO OCCUR IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS WHILE SNOW MELT RUNOFF IS PEAKING.

THE ALBUQUERQUE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA IS SERVICED BY THE WEST GULF
RIVER FORECAST CENTER...THE ARKANSAS BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER...
AND THE COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER. THESE REGIONAL
FORECAST CENTERS ISSUE A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO
UPDATE THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES. PLEASE VISIT THE LINKS
BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/WGRFC
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABRFC
WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV

YOU CAN ALSO FIND ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECASTS ON
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB PAGE AT:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABQ

FOR QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS OUTLOOK YOU CAN CONTACT BRIAN
GUYER OR CHUCK JONES...ACTING SERVICE HYDROLOGISTS...AT 505-243-0702
OR BY EMAIL AT BRIAN.GUYER@NOAA.GOV OR CHARLES.H.JONES@NOAA.GOV.

&&

$$

GUYER




000
FGUS75 KABQ 041329
ESFABQ

NMZ501>540-312359-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
628 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
...NEAR NORMAL FLOOD RISK FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
...BELOW NORMAL FLOOD RISK FOR CATRON AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...

...EXISTING CONDITIONS...

PRECIPITATION...
LONG-TERM PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 90-DAY PERIOD HAS BEEN NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS ALL CLIMATE DIVISIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. MEDIUM AND SHORT-TERM PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 60 AND
30-DAY PERIODS RESPECTIVELY HAS BEEN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
ALL CLIMATE DIVISIONS. THE ENTIRE MONTH OF JANUARY AND THE LAST WEEK
OF FEBRUARY WERE PARTICULARLY BENEFICIAL WITH SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND
SNOW OBSERVED.

PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE WINTER PERIOD HAVE AVERAGED 2 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS SEVERAL AREAS.

LOCATIONPRECIPITATION (DEC-FEB)

CHAMA4.94
WOLF CANYON4.99
LOS ALAMOS1.46
EAGLE NEST4.22
NAVAJO DAM2.96
GALLUP2.89
ABQ FOOTHILLS3.27
MOUNTAINAIR2.25
RUIDOSO1.67
GILA HOT SPRINGS3.47

SNOWPACK...
THE CURRENT SNOWPACK IN THE NORTHERN NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS RANGES
FROM 101 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN ON THE CANADIAN RIVER BASIN...70
PERCENT ON THE PECOS RIVER BASIN...79 PERCENT ON THE RIO GRANDE
BASIN...TO 70 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN IN THE SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN.
SNOWPACK IN THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS IS 43 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN...
68 PERCENT IN THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...AND A DISMAL
22 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN IN THE UPPER GILA BASIN OF CATRON COUNTY.

RESERVOIR CONSIDERATIONS...
STORAGE REMAINS WELL BELOW NORMAL AT NEARLY ALL LAKES AND
RESERVOIRS IN NEW MEXICO...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW STORAGE
AREAS ALONG THE PECOS RIVER BASIN. THE STATEWIDE AVERAGE IS JUST
23 PERCENT OF CAPACITY AS OF MARCH 1ST.

STREAMFLOW...
RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUGGESTS PEAK
FLOW CONDITIONS FROM SPRING SNOWMELT IN THE PERIOD FROM MID MAY
TO EARLY JUNE. LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO EXPERIENCE
TYPICAL PEAK FLOW FROM LATE MARCH TO EARLY APRIL. CURRENT
STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ARE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
MOST GAGE LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO HAVE INDICATED LITTLE
TO NO RESPONSE TO SPRING SNOWMELT AT THIS TIME.

DROUGHT...
LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE WINTER MONTHS.
HOWEVER...ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 3 MONTHS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN IMPROVEMENTS TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH MARCH. THE LATEST DROUGHT
MONITOR FROM FEBRUARY 24TH INDICATED 26 PERCENT OF NEW MEXICO IN
SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT WITH 68 PERCENT OF THE STATE IN MODERATE
TO EXTREME CONDITIONS.

...OUTLOOKS...

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2015
FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. THE
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2015 SUGGESTS EQUAL CHANCES OF
BELOW...NEAR...OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...
APRIL... MAY 2015 FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
ENTIRE STATE. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...APRIL...MAY 2015
SUGGESTS EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW...NEAR...OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS FROM THE
WINTER SEASON...ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION FORECASTS...
HISTORICAL RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION THIS SPRING...THERE WILL BE A NEAR NORMAL
FLOOD RISK FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND A BELOW NORMAL
FLOOD RISK FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT EARLY IN THE SNOW
ACCUMULATION SEASON AND CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE BEFORE RUNOFF
BEGINS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RIVER OR STREAM FLOODING
WOULD INCREASE IN THE EVENT HEAVY RAINFALL WERE TO OCCUR IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS WHILE SNOW MELT RUNOFF IS PEAKING.

THE ALBUQUERQUE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA IS SERVICED BY THE WEST GULF
RIVER FORECAST CENTER...THE ARKANSAS BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER...
AND THE COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER. THESE REGIONAL
FORECAST CENTERS ISSUE A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO
UPDATE THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES. PLEASE VISIT THE LINKS
BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/WGRFC
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABRFC
WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV

YOU CAN ALSO FIND ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECASTS ON
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB PAGE AT:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABQ

FOR QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS OUTLOOK YOU CAN CONTACT BRIAN
GUYER OR CHUCK JONES...ACTING SERVICE HYDROLOGISTS...AT 505-243-0702
OR BY EMAIL AT BRIAN.GUYER@NOAA.GOV OR CHARLES.H.JONES@NOAA.GOV.

&&

$$

GUYER




000
FGUS75 KABQ 041329
ESFABQ

NMZ501>540-312359-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
628 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
...NEAR NORMAL FLOOD RISK FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
...BELOW NORMAL FLOOD RISK FOR CATRON AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...

...EXISTING CONDITIONS...

PRECIPITATION...
LONG-TERM PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 90-DAY PERIOD HAS BEEN NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS ALL CLIMATE DIVISIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. MEDIUM AND SHORT-TERM PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 60 AND
30-DAY PERIODS RESPECTIVELY HAS BEEN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
ALL CLIMATE DIVISIONS. THE ENTIRE MONTH OF JANUARY AND THE LAST WEEK
OF FEBRUARY WERE PARTICULARLY BENEFICIAL WITH SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND
SNOW OBSERVED.

PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE WINTER PERIOD HAVE AVERAGED 2 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS SEVERAL AREAS.

LOCATIONPRECIPITATION (DEC-FEB)

CHAMA4.94
WOLF CANYON4.99
LOS ALAMOS1.46
EAGLE NEST4.22
NAVAJO DAM2.96
GALLUP2.89
ABQ FOOTHILLS3.27
MOUNTAINAIR2.25
RUIDOSO1.67
GILA HOT SPRINGS3.47

SNOWPACK...
THE CURRENT SNOWPACK IN THE NORTHERN NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS RANGES
FROM 101 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN ON THE CANADIAN RIVER BASIN...70
PERCENT ON THE PECOS RIVER BASIN...79 PERCENT ON THE RIO GRANDE
BASIN...TO 70 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN IN THE SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN.
SNOWPACK IN THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS IS 43 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN...
68 PERCENT IN THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...AND A DISMAL
22 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN IN THE UPPER GILA BASIN OF CATRON COUNTY.

RESERVOIR CONSIDERATIONS...
STORAGE REMAINS WELL BELOW NORMAL AT NEARLY ALL LAKES AND
RESERVOIRS IN NEW MEXICO...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW STORAGE
AREAS ALONG THE PECOS RIVER BASIN. THE STATEWIDE AVERAGE IS JUST
23 PERCENT OF CAPACITY AS OF MARCH 1ST.

STREAMFLOW...
RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUGGESTS PEAK
FLOW CONDITIONS FROM SPRING SNOWMELT IN THE PERIOD FROM MID MAY
TO EARLY JUNE. LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO EXPERIENCE
TYPICAL PEAK FLOW FROM LATE MARCH TO EARLY APRIL. CURRENT
STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ARE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
MOST GAGE LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO HAVE INDICATED LITTLE
TO NO RESPONSE TO SPRING SNOWMELT AT THIS TIME.

DROUGHT...
LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE WINTER MONTHS.
HOWEVER...ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 3 MONTHS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN IMPROVEMENTS TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH MARCH. THE LATEST DROUGHT
MONITOR FROM FEBRUARY 24TH INDICATED 26 PERCENT OF NEW MEXICO IN
SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT WITH 68 PERCENT OF THE STATE IN MODERATE
TO EXTREME CONDITIONS.

...OUTLOOKS...

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2015
FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. THE
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2015 SUGGESTS EQUAL CHANCES OF
BELOW...NEAR...OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...
APRIL... MAY 2015 FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
ENTIRE STATE. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...APRIL...MAY 2015
SUGGESTS EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW...NEAR...OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS FROM THE
WINTER SEASON...ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION FORECASTS...
HISTORICAL RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION THIS SPRING...THERE WILL BE A NEAR NORMAL
FLOOD RISK FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND A BELOW NORMAL
FLOOD RISK FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT EARLY IN THE SNOW
ACCUMULATION SEASON AND CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE BEFORE RUNOFF
BEGINS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RIVER OR STREAM FLOODING
WOULD INCREASE IN THE EVENT HEAVY RAINFALL WERE TO OCCUR IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS WHILE SNOW MELT RUNOFF IS PEAKING.

THE ALBUQUERQUE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA IS SERVICED BY THE WEST GULF
RIVER FORECAST CENTER...THE ARKANSAS BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER...
AND THE COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER. THESE REGIONAL
FORECAST CENTERS ISSUE A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO
UPDATE THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES. PLEASE VISIT THE LINKS
BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/WGRFC
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABRFC
WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV

YOU CAN ALSO FIND ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECASTS ON
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB PAGE AT:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABQ

FOR QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS OUTLOOK YOU CAN CONTACT BRIAN
GUYER OR CHUCK JONES...ACTING SERVICE HYDROLOGISTS...AT 505-243-0702
OR BY EMAIL AT BRIAN.GUYER@NOAA.GOV OR CHARLES.H.JONES@NOAA.GOV.

&&

$$

GUYER





000
FGUS75 KABQ 041323
ESFABQ

NMZ501>540-312359-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
610 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
...NEAR NORMAL FLOOD RISK FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
...BELOW NORMAL FLOOD RISK FOR CATRON AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...

...EXISTING CONDITIONS...

PRECIPITATION...
LONG-TERM PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 90-DAY PERIOD HAS BEEN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS ALL CLIMATE DIVISIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. MEDIUM AND SHORT-TERM PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 60 AND 30-DAY PERIODS RESPECTIVELY HAS BEEN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL CLIMATE DIVISIONS. THE ENTIRE MONTH OF JANUARY AND THE LAST WEEK OF FEBRUARY WERE PARTICULARLY BENEFICIAL WITH SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW OBSERVED.

PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE WINTER PERIOD HAVE AVERAGED 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS SEVERAL AREAS.

LOCATIONPRECIPITATION (DEC-FEB)

CHAMA4.94
WOLF CANYON4.99
LOS ALAMOS1.46
EAGLE NEST4.22
NAVAJO DAM2.96
GALLUP2.89
ABQ FOOTHILLS3.27
MOUNTAINAIR2.25
RUIDOSO1.67
GILA HOT SPRINGS3.47

SNOWPACK...
THE CURRENT SNOWPACK IN THE NORTHERN NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS RANGES FROM 101 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN ON THE CANADIAN RIVER BASIN...70 PERCENT ON THE PECOS RIVER BASIN...79 PERCENT ON THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...TO 70 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN IN THE SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN. SNOWPACK IN THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS IS 43 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN...68 PERCENT IN THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...AND A DISMAL 22 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN IN THE UPPER GILA BASIN OF CATRON COUNTY.

RESERVOIR CONSIDERATIONS...
STORAGE REMAINS WELL BELOW NORMAL AT NEARLY ALL LAKES AND RESERVOIRS IN NEW MEXICO...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW STORAGE AREAS ALONG THE PECOS RIVER BASIN. THE STATEWIDE AVERAGE IS JUST 23 PERCENT OF CAPACITY AS OF MARCH 1ST.

STREAMFLOW...
RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUGGESTS PEAK FLOW CONDITIONS FROM SPRING SNOWMELT IN THE PERIOD FROM MID MAY TO EARLY JUNE. LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO EXPERIENCE TYPICAL PEAK FLOW FROM LATE MARCH TO EARLY APRIL. CURRENT STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ARE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MANY LOCATIONS. MOST GAGE LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO HAVE INDICATED LITTLE TO NO RESPONSE TO SPRING SNOWMELT AT THIS TIME.

DROUGHT...
LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE WINTER MONTHS. HOWEVER... ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 3 MONTHS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN IMPROVEMENTS TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH MARCH. THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR FROM FEBRUARY 24TH INDICATED 26 PERCENT OF NEW MEXICO IN SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT WITH 68 PERCENT OF THE STATE IN MODERATE TO EXTREME CONDITIONS.

...OUTLOOKS...

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2015 FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2015 SUGGESTS EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW...NEAR...OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...APRIL... MAY 2015 FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...APRIL...MAY 2015 SUGGESTS EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW...NEAR...OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS FROM THE WINTER SEASON...ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION FORECASTS...HISTORICAL RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THIS SPRING...THERE WILL BE A NEAR NORMAL FLOOD RISK FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND A BELOW NORMAL FLOOD RISK FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT EARLY IN THE SNOW ACCUMULATION SEASON AND CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE BEFORE RUNOFF BEGINS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RIVER OR STREAM FLOODING WOULD INCREASE IN THE EVENT HEAVY RAINFALL WERE TO OCCUR IN MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS WHILE SNOW MELT RUNOFF IS PEAKING.

THE ALBUQUERQUE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA IS SERVICED BY THE WEST GULF RIVER FORECAST CENTER...THE ARKANSAS BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER...AND THE COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER. THESE REGIONAL FORECAST CENTERS ISSUE A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO UPDATE THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES. PLEASE VISIT THE LINKS BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/WGRFC
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABRFC
WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV

YOU CAN ALSO FIND ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECASTS ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB PAGE AT:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABQ

FOR QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS OUTLOOK YOU CAN CONTACT BRIAN GUYER OR CHUCK JONES...ACTING SERVICE HYDROLOGISTS...AT 505-243-0702 OR BY EMAIL AT BRIAN.GUYER@NOAA.GOV OR CHARLES.H.JONES@NOAA.GOV.

&&

$$

GUYER





000
FGUS75 KABQ 041323
ESFABQ

NMZ501>540-312359-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
610 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
...NEAR NORMAL FLOOD RISK FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
...BELOW NORMAL FLOOD RISK FOR CATRON AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...

...EXISTING CONDITIONS...

PRECIPITATION...
LONG-TERM PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 90-DAY PERIOD HAS BEEN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS ALL CLIMATE DIVISIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. MEDIUM AND SHORT-TERM PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 60 AND 30-DAY PERIODS RESPECTIVELY HAS BEEN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL CLIMATE DIVISIONS. THE ENTIRE MONTH OF JANUARY AND THE LAST WEEK OF FEBRUARY WERE PARTICULARLY BENEFICIAL WITH SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW OBSERVED.

PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE WINTER PERIOD HAVE AVERAGED 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS SEVERAL AREAS.

LOCATIONPRECIPITATION (DEC-FEB)

CHAMA4.94
WOLF CANYON4.99
LOS ALAMOS1.46
EAGLE NEST4.22
NAVAJO DAM2.96
GALLUP2.89
ABQ FOOTHILLS3.27
MOUNTAINAIR2.25
RUIDOSO1.67
GILA HOT SPRINGS3.47

SNOWPACK...
THE CURRENT SNOWPACK IN THE NORTHERN NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS RANGES FROM 101 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN ON THE CANADIAN RIVER BASIN...70 PERCENT ON THE PECOS RIVER BASIN...79 PERCENT ON THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...TO 70 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN IN THE SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN. SNOWPACK IN THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS IS 43 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN...68 PERCENT IN THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...AND A DISMAL 22 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN IN THE UPPER GILA BASIN OF CATRON COUNTY.

RESERVOIR CONSIDERATIONS...
STORAGE REMAINS WELL BELOW NORMAL AT NEARLY ALL LAKES AND RESERVOIRS IN NEW MEXICO...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW STORAGE AREAS ALONG THE PECOS RIVER BASIN. THE STATEWIDE AVERAGE IS JUST 23 PERCENT OF CAPACITY AS OF MARCH 1ST.

STREAMFLOW...
RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUGGESTS PEAK FLOW CONDITIONS FROM SPRING SNOWMELT IN THE PERIOD FROM MID MAY TO EARLY JUNE. LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO EXPERIENCE TYPICAL PEAK FLOW FROM LATE MARCH TO EARLY APRIL. CURRENT STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ARE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MANY LOCATIONS. MOST GAGE LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO HAVE INDICATED LITTLE TO NO RESPONSE TO SPRING SNOWMELT AT THIS TIME.

DROUGHT...
LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE WINTER MONTHS. HOWEVER... ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 3 MONTHS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN IMPROVEMENTS TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH MARCH. THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR FROM FEBRUARY 24TH INDICATED 26 PERCENT OF NEW MEXICO IN SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT WITH 68 PERCENT OF THE STATE IN MODERATE TO EXTREME CONDITIONS.

...OUTLOOKS...

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2015 FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2015 SUGGESTS EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW...NEAR...OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...APRIL... MAY 2015 FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...APRIL...MAY 2015 SUGGESTS EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW...NEAR...OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS FROM THE WINTER SEASON...ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION FORECASTS...HISTORICAL RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THIS SPRING...THERE WILL BE A NEAR NORMAL FLOOD RISK FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND A BELOW NORMAL FLOOD RISK FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT EARLY IN THE SNOW ACCUMULATION SEASON AND CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE BEFORE RUNOFF BEGINS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RIVER OR STREAM FLOODING WOULD INCREASE IN THE EVENT HEAVY RAINFALL WERE TO OCCUR IN MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS WHILE SNOW MELT RUNOFF IS PEAKING.

THE ALBUQUERQUE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA IS SERVICED BY THE WEST GULF RIVER FORECAST CENTER...THE ARKANSAS BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER...AND THE COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER. THESE REGIONAL FORECAST CENTERS ISSUE A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO UPDATE THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES. PLEASE VISIT THE LINKS BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/WGRFC
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABRFC
WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV

YOU CAN ALSO FIND ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECASTS ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB PAGE AT:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABQ

FOR QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS OUTLOOK YOU CAN CONTACT BRIAN GUYER OR CHUCK JONES...ACTING SERVICE HYDROLOGISTS...AT 505-243-0702 OR BY EMAIL AT BRIAN.GUYER@NOAA.GOV OR CHARLES.H.JONES@NOAA.GOV.

&&

$$

GUYER




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