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000
FGUS71 KALY 042213 CCA
ESFALY
NYC001-021-027-035-039-041-043-057-083-091-093-095-
111-113-115-VTC003-25-MAC003-CTC005-171800-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
510 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK 3 FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

THIS IS THE THIRD OF A SERIES OF HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EVERY TWO WEEKS...WHICH REFERS TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...SOUTHERN
VERMONT...BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS...AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CONNECTICUT. THE MAJOR RIVER BASINS IN THIS AREA ARE THE
HUDSON...THE MOHAWK...AND THE HOUSATONIC.

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE TWO-WEEK PERIOD FEBRUARY 4TH TO THE
18TH.

...OVERVIEW...

THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING FOR THE WINTER AND
SPRING OF 2016 REMAINS BELOW NORMAL DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOWPACK AND
RIVER ICE.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

SNOW DEPTHS AND CORRESPONDING WATER EQUIVALENTS REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. AFTER SOME
RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT EARLIER IN THE WEEK...SNOW TOTALS NOW RANGE
FROM TWO INCHES TO A FOOT IN THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH WATER CONTENT OF
HALF AN INCH TO 4 INCHES.

SNOW TOTALS DECREASE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH JUST THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES SEEING A PALTRY
HALF A FOOT OR LESS OF SNOW DEPTH...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO
INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT.

OUTSIDE OF THESE TWO AREAS...THE OUTLOOK AREA IS COMPLETELY SNOW
FREE. THIS EASILY QUALIFIES AS BELOW NORMAL SNOW DEPTH AND WATER
EQUIVALENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

...RIVER FLOWS AND ICE CONDITIONS...

RIVER FLOWS ARE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO
THIS WEEKS RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT EVENT. RIVER ICE EXTENT AND
THICKNESS ARE FAR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MUCH OF THE
LITTLE ICE THAT HAD FORMED WAS LIKELY FLUSHED OUT BY ELEVATED
STREAMFLOWS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE THREAT FOR ANY
ORGANIZED FLOOD PRODUCING ICE JAMS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND WATER SUPPLY...

CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE OUTLOOK AREA AND THE
GROUND HAS THAWED...THE BRUNSWICK NY OBSERVER REPORTED A MAXIMUM 9
INCHES OF FROST DEPTH OVER THE LAST TWO WEEKS...HOWEVER THIS
COMPLETELY THAWED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. LONG TERM DRYNESS DOES
REMAIN IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY...AND FAR SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY...AS
SHOWN BY THE MODERATE DROUGHT AREAS OF THE US DROUGHT MONITOR. OTHER
AREAS OF LESS SEVERE DRYNESS INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS...THE BERKSHIRES...AND THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS.

DESPITE THIS...NYC DEP RESERVOIRS ARE RIGHT AT NORMAL LEVELS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HUDSON RIVER BLACK RIVER REGULATING DISTRICT
RESERVOIRS ARE WITHIN A FOOT OF TARGET ELEVATIONS IN THE BLACK RIVER
WATERSHED. IN THE UPPER HUDSON WATERSHED...BOTH THE GREAT SACANDAGA
RESERVOIR AND INDIAN LAKE...ARE MORE THAN A FOOT BELOW TARGET
ELEVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE 10TH THROUGH THE 14TH OF FEBRUARY
CALLS FOR A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL
PRECIPITATION BEFORE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TREND BACK UP TO
NORMAL AND ABOVE NORMAL...RESPECTIVELY...IN THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
FOR FEBRUARY 12 TO 18.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT...THE EXPERIMENTAL 3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK FOR
FEBRUARY 13TH THROUGH THE 26TH CONTINUES THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION...WITH NO SIGNAL FOR TEMPERATURE.

...SUMMARY...

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE FOURTH WINTER SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR THURSDAY...
FEBRUARY 18. EXTENDED HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WHEN NECESSARY.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN PRODUCE FLOODING
AT ANY TIME OF YEAR EVEN IN AREAS THAT HAVE A BELOW NORMAL POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING.

OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEB
PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY.

$$

BEW





000
FGUS71 KALY 042210
ESFALY
NYC001-021-027-035-039-041-043-057-083-091-093-095-
111-113-115-VTC003-25-MAC003-CTC005-171800-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ALBANY NY 510 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK 3 FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

THIS IS THE THIRD OF A SERIES OF HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EVERY TWO WEEKS...WHICH REFERS TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...SOUTHERN
VERMONT...BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS...AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CONNECTICUT. THE MAJOR RIVER BASINS IN THIS AREA ARE THE
HUDSON...THE MOHAWK...AND THE HOUSATONIC.

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE TWO-WEEK PERIOD FEBRUARY 4TH TO THE
18TH.

...OVERVIEW...

THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING FOR THE WINTER AND
SPRING OF 2016 REMAINS BELOW NORMAL DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOWPACK AND
RIVER ICE.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

SNOW DEPTHS AND CORRESPONDING WATER EQUIVALENTS REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. AFTER SOME
RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT EARLIER IN THE WEEK...SNOW TOTALS NOW RANGE
FROM TWO INCHES TO A FOOT IN THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH WATER CONTENT OF
HALF AN INCH TO 4 INCHES.

SNOW TOTALS DECREASE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH JUST THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES SEEING A PALTRY
HALF A FOOT OR LESS OF SNOW DEPTH...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO
INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT.

OUTSIDE OF THESE TWO AREAS...THE OUTLOOK AREA IS COMPLETELY SNOW
FREE. THIS EASILY QUALIFIES AS BELOW NORMAL SNOW DEPTH AND WATER
EQUIVALENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

...RIVER FLOWS AND ICE CONDITIONS...

RIVER FLOWS ARE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO
THIS WEEKS RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT EVENT. RIVER ICE EXTENT AND
THICKNESS ARE FAR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MUCH OF THE
LITTLE ICE THAT HAD FORMED WAS LIKELY FLUSHED OUT BY ELEVATED
STREAMFLOWS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE THREAT FOR ANY
ORGANIZED FLOOD PRODUCING ICE JAMS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND WATER SUPPLY...

CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE OUTLOOK AREA AND THE
GROUND HAS THAWED...THE BRUNSWICK NY OBSERVER REPORTED A MAXIMUM 9
INCHES OF FROST DEPTH OVER THE LAST TWO WEEKS...HOWEVER THIS
COMPLETELY THAWED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. LONG TERM DRYNESS DOES
REMAIN IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY...AND FAR SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY...AS
SHOWN BY THE MODERATE DROUGHT AREAS OF THE US DROUGHT MONITOR. OTHER
AREAS OF LESS SEVERE DRYNESS INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS...THE BERKSHIRES...AND THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS.

DESPITE THIS...NYC DEP RESERVOIRS ARE RIGHT AT NORMAL LEVELS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HUDSON RIVER BLACK RIVER REGULATING DISTRICT
RESERVOIRS ARE WITHIN A FOOT OF TARGET ELEVATIONS IN THE BLACK RIVER
WATERSHED. IN THE UPPER HUDSON WATERSHED...BOTH THE GREAT SACANDAGA
RESERVOIR AND INDIAN LAKE...ARE MORE THAN A FOOT BELOW TARGET
ELEVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE 10TH THROUGH THE 14TH OF FEBRUARY
CALLS FOR A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL
PRECIPITATION BEFORE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TREND BACK UP TO
NORMAL AND ABOVE NORMAL...RESPECTIVELY...IN THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
FOR FEBRUARY 12 TO 18.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT...THE EXPERIMENTAL 3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK FOR
FEBRUARY 13TH THROUGH THE 26TH CONTINUES THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION...WITH NO SIGNAL FOR TEMPERATURE.

...SUMMARY...

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE FOURTH WINTER SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR THURSDAY...
FEBRUARY 18. EXTENDED HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WHEN NECESSARY.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN PRODUCE FLOODING
AT ANY TIME OF YEAR EVEN IN AREAS THAT HAVE A BELOW NORMAL POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING.

OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEB
PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY.

$$

BEW





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