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000
FGUS74 KEWX 051931
ESFEWX
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-071945-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
131 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

BELOW AVERAGE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...

FOR THE SPRING OF 2015...THE WEST GULF RIVER FORECAST CENTER IS
FORECASTING A BELOW AVERAGE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING OVER ALL
RIVERS AND CREEKS IN THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HYDROLOGIC SERVICES
AREA (HSA). THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING BASINS...COLORADO
RIVER...BRAZOS RIVER...SAN MARCOS RIVER...GUADALUPE RIVER...SAN
ANTONIO RIVER...MEDINA RIVER...NUECES RIVER...FRIO RIVER AND THE
RIO GRANDE.

EXISTING CONDITIONS...ABNORMALLY DRY TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAJORITY OF
THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA) IS CURRENTLY IN MODERATE TO
EXTREME DROUGHT. EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS WERE
NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU.

SOIL MOISTURE...SOILS ARE CURRENTLY SLIGHTLY DRY TO NEAR NORMAL.
THE DRIEST SOILS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND
AND PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND SEVERAL YEARS OF DROUGHT...OR AT LEAST DRIER THAN
AVERAGE CONDITIONS HAVE CAUSED SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS TO BE BELOW
AVERAGE. SOILS ACROSS THE REGION WOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE MOST
RAINFALL EVENTS WITH LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. IF
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE TO BECOME EXCESSIVE THEN A THREAT WOULD
EXIST FOR RIVER FLOODING.

STREAMFLOW...DURING MUCH OF THE FALL AND WINTER STREAMFLOWS HAVE
REMAINED BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MOST BASINS. THE RIO
GRANDE BASIN HAS CONTINUED TO SEE NEAR NORMAL FLOWS. THERE WERE
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION EVENTS THAT DID CAUSE SOME INCREASED
FLOWS...BUT THESE EVENTS WERE VERY LIMITED AND MOSTLY IN OR NEAR
URBAN LOCATIONS. CURRENTLY THE GUADALUPE...MEDINA...FRIO AND
NUECES BASINS WERE REPORTING MUCH BELOW AVERAGE FLOWS. THE
COLORADO REPORTED BELOW AVERAGE FLOWS. THE SAN ANTONIO AND RIO
GRANDE BASINS WERE REPORTING NORMAL FLOWS.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...RESERVOIRS AND LAKES ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC
SERVICES AREA (HSA) REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL ELEVATION
LEVELS. A FEW RESERVOIRS HAVE SEEN IMPROVEMENTS AND ARE CURRENTLY
NEAR CONSERVATION POOL LEVELS. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SLIGHT RISES
IN THE LEVELS OVER THE FALL AND WINTER...BUT MOST REMAIN VERY LOW.
MEDINA LAKE WAS AT 3.2 PERCENT OF CONSERVATION CAPACITY OR 89.8
FEET BELOW THE CONSERVATION POOL. LAKE TRAVIS REMAINS AT 34.2
PERCENT OF CAPACITY OR 55.2 FEET BELOW THE CONSERVATION POOL. WITH
THESE EXTREMELY LOW LAKE LEVELS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET BACK
TO THE NORMAL CONSERVATION POOL.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPORADIC DURING THE FALL AND WINTER
WITH A COUPLE OF MONTHS SEEING ABOVE AVERAGE AND A COUPLE WITH
BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL. THE RAINFALL HAS HELPED TO DIMINISH SHORT
TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS...BUT THE LONGER TERM IMPACTS REMAIN DUE TO
THE DRY CONDITIONS THAT EXTEND BACK 18-24 MONTHS.

CLIMATE REGIME...AN WEAK ENSO (EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) EL
NINO PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE 2015 SPRING.
THE ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WE HAVE
SEEN IN A FEW MONTHS DURING THE FALL AND WINTER ARE CHARACTERISTIC
OF AN EL NINO EVENT.

METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
MONTHLY AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SPRING
(MARCH/APRIL/MAY) AND INTO THE SUMMER (JUNE/JULY/AUGUST) CONTINUE
TO SHOW STRONGER TRENDS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL AND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MAY. FOR THE SUMMER PERIOD THE
STRONGER TRENDS ARE CALLING FOR EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE...BELOW OR
NEAR AVERAGE RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST UNITED STATES
SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK SHOWS DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUING OR
INTENSIFYING THROUGH MAY 31 2015 ACROSS THE AREAS CURRENTLY IN
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICES AREA (HSA).

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
AFTER SEVERAL YEARS OF DROUGHT AND SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR AVERAGE
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...LOW STREAM FLOWS AND THE VERY LOW LAKE
AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING DURING
2015 IS BELOW AVERAGE.

REFERENCES/LINKS;
(USE ALL LOWER CASE)

PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS:
WATERWATCH.USGS.GOV/

RESERVOIR SUMMARIES:
WATERFORTEXAS.ORG/RESERVOIRS/STATEWIDE

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS:
CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/ANALYSIS_MONITORING/
REGIONAL_MONITORING/PALMER.GIF

US DROUGHT MONITOR AND OUTLOOK:
DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/

TX DROUGHT INFORMATION:
WATERDATAFORTEXAS.ORG/DROUGHT/
CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU

CLIMATE GRAPHICS:
CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/

LOCAL WEATHER...RIVER...CLIMATE AND FORECAST INFORMATION FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS:
SRH.WEATHER.GOV/EWX

$$





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