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000
FGUS74 KEWX 212034
ESFEWX
TXC465-221434-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
334 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE PECOS RIVER BASIN IN SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...

THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TEXAS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
HAS IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE
(AHPS) FOR THE PECOS RIVER BASIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS.  THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE
THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS
IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE PECOS RIVER NEAR LANGTRY
HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 10 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE THE LANGTRY FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE
3.1 FEET
DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

         CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                    VALID 8/20/2014 - 11/19/2014

LOCATION     FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------     ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
PECOS RIVER
 LANGTRY      10.0    1.8  2.2  2.5  2.7  3.1  3.9  5.1  9.9 14.2
 PANDALE       7.0    1.7  2.0  3.4  3.8  4.3  5.4  6.6  8.7  9.9

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS
CAN BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT: HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/LONG_RANGE.PHP?WFO=EWX
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.






000
FGUS74 KEWX 212033
ESFEWX
TXC491-221433-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
333 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE BRAZOS RIVER BASIN IN SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...

THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TEXAS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
HAS IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE
(AHPS) FOR THE BRAZOS RIVER BASIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS.  THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE
THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS
IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.  EXAMPLE:  THE SOUTH FORK SAN GABRIEL
AT GEORGETOWN HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 9 FEET.  THERE IS A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE THE GEORGETOWN FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE
4.0 FEET
DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

         CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                    VALID 8/20/2014 - 11/19/2014

LOCATION     FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------     ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
S FK SAN GABRIEL RIVER
 GEORGETOWN   9.0    2.7  3.1  3.4  3.8  4.0  5.1  6.1  7.8  8.7

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA.  THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS
CAN BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:  HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/LONG_RANGE.PHP?WFO=EWX
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.

$$





000
FGUS74 KEWX 212026
ESFEWX
TXC055-091-123-177-187-209-259-265-221426-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
326 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE GUADALUPE RIVER BASIN IN SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...

THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TEXAS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
HAS IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE
(AHPS) FOR THE GUADALUPE RIVER BASIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS.  THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE
THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS
IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.  EXAMPLE:  THE GUADALUPE RIVER AT GONZALES
HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 31 FEET.  THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
CHANCE THE GUADALUPE FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE
14.9 FEET
DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

         CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                    VALID 8/21/2014 - 11/20/2014

 LOCATION        FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
 --------        ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
GUADALUPE RIVER
 HUNT            10.0    7.7  8.3  8.5  8.6  8.7  9.0  9.3 10.9 12.1
 COMFORT         21.0    3.5  4.4  4.9  5.4  6.8  7.7  8.4 11.1 14.6
 SPRING BRANCH   30.0    2.3  3.4  3.7  4.4  7.4  9.5 15.3 18.8 25.7
 ABV COMAL NB     7.0    1.3  1.3  1.6  1.7  1.8  2.0  2.3  3.5  3.8
 BLW COMAL NB    13.0    9.4  9.5  9.6  9.8 10.1 10.3 10.6 10.9 12.9
 SEGUIN          19.0    1.2  1.3  1.4  1.5  1.6  1.8  1.9  2.0  5.7
 GONZALES        31.0   11.3 11.6 12.9 13.7 14.9 16.6 18.1 22.5 39.1
 CUERO           24.0    7.1  8.0  9.9 10.5 12.2 14.9 16.3 21.1 36.3

BLANCO RIVER
 WIMBERLEY       13.0    3.3  3.3  3.4  3.9  4.5  5.1  5.6  6.6  7.7

SAN MARCOS RIVER
 LULING          20.0    4.0  4.2  4.7  6.1  7.6  8.6  9.3 14.5 25.8

PLUM CREEK
 NEAR LULING     23.0    4.2  5.9  7.7  9.9 16.3 17.9 19.6 21.0 23.0

PEACH CREEK
 BLW DILWORTH    23.0    7.5  9.9 11.3 11.8 12.0 12.8 14.9 18.2 27.2

SANDIES CREEK
 NEAR WESTHOFF   21.0    2.7  3.2  3.5  5.2  6.4 11.2 13.9 18.7 22.1

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA.  THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS
CAN BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:  HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/LONG_RANGE.PHP?WFO=EWX
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.

$$








000
FGUS74 KEWX 212019
ESFEWX
TXC019-029-187-255-325-493-221419-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
319 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE SAN ANTONIO RIVER BASIN IN SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...

THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TEXAS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
HAS IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE
(AHPS) FOR THE SAN ANTONIO RIVER BASIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS.  THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE
THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS
IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.  EXAMPLE:  THE SAN ANTONIO RIVER AT ELMENDORF
HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 35 FEET.  THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
CHANCE THE ELMENDORF FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE
20.5 FEET
DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

         CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                    VALID 8/21/2014 - 11/20/2014

 LOCATION        FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
 --------        ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
MEDINA RIVER
 BANDERA         13.0    5.3  5.9  5.9  6.3  6.8  7.2  8.8 10.7 12.7
 LA COSTE        15.0    5.4  5.4  5.4  5.4  5.4  5.4  5.4  5.4  5.4
 SOMERSET        18.0    4.4  4.5  5.1  5.4  5.6  6.5  6.8  8.1 10.1
 US281           20.0    3.0  3.6  4.1  5.0  6.1  7.7  9.3 11.6 14.1

SALADO CREEK
 LOOP 13         18.0    7.0  8.0  8.7  9.2 10.0 10.6 11.1 12.0 13.6

SAN ANTONIO RIVER
 ELMENDORF       35.0   12.2 13.5 16.0 17.8 20.5 26.0 27.3 31.3 36.3
 FALLS CITY      12.0    1.9  2.3  2.8  3.0  4.0  4.3  5.3  5.9  9.3

CIBOLO CREEK
 SELMA           17.0    2.6  2.6  2.6  2.6  3.1  4.5  4.9  5.6  5.9
 NR FALLS CITY   17.0    1.7  2.0  2.2  3.0  3.7  5.1  7.1 11.0 21.1

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA.  THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS
CAN BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:  HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/LONG_RANGE.PHP?WFO=EWX
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.

$$





000
FGUS74 KEWX 211601
ESFEWX
TXC021-031-149-171-299-453-221001-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1101 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN IN SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...


THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TEXAS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
HAS IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE
(AHPS) FOR THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS.  THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET.


IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE
THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS
IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.  EXAMPLE:  THE COLORADO RIVER AT SMITHVILLE
HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 20 FEET.  THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
CHANCE THE SMITHVILLE FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 5.7 FEET
DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.


         CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                    VALID 8/20/2014 - 11/19/2014


 LOCATION        FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
 --------        ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
COLORADO RIVER
 AUSTIN            24.0 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.8 16.9 17.4 18.4 19.3 23.4
 BASTROP           23.0  5.3  5.5  5.8  6.4  8.1  8.8 10.9 12.3 19.9
 SMITHVILLE        20.0  3.3  3.7  4.2  5.3  5.7  7.3  9.1 13.0 20.5
 LA GRANGE         26.0  6.7  7.1  7.7 10.5 12.7 15.1 16.8 24.8 29.8


LLANO RIVER
 LLANO             10.0  2.1  3.7  4.4  4.8  5.3  5.8  7.6 10.7 14.2


SANDY CREEK
 NEAR KINGSLAND    12.0  4.8  4.8  5.0  6.8  6.9  7.4  7.7  8.1  8.5


PEDERNALES RIVER
 FREDERICKSBURG    22.0  5.4  5.5  5.7  5.8  5.9  6.8  7.9  8.8 10.1
 JOHNSON CITY      14.0 10.4 10.4 10.8 10.9 11.1 11.5 11.7 12.0 12.9


BARTON CREEK
 LOOP 360 AUSTIN    8.0  2.2  2.2  2.2  2.2  2.2  3.6  4.0  4.9  8.5


ONION CREEK
 HWY 183 AUSTIN    17.0  4.9  5.5  5.8  6.2  6.6  6.7  6.9  7.6  8.6


THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA.  THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS
CAN BE DETERMINED.


ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:  HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/LONG_RANGE.PHP?WFO=EWX
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).


LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.


$$

















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