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000
FGUS73 KFGF 241404
ESFFGF

MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-089-107-111-113-
119-125-135-159-167-NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-
067-071-073-077-081-091-095-097-099-301200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
902 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015


...RED RIVER BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...

         This outlook covers the Red River of the North
         and its Minnesota and North Dakota tributaries.

  Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks now use 64 years (1949-2012)
    of past weather...temperature and precipitation...for the
    ensemble predictive hydrographs used in calculating the
    probabilities of exceeding a river level for the valid period
    of the outlook.

  Outlook Schedule - The National Weather Service in Grand Forks,
    North Dakota will be providing the Advanced Hydrologic
    Prediction Services (AHPS) Long-Range Probabilistic Hydrologic
    Outlooks for the Red River of the North and its Minnesota and
    North Dakota tributaries according to the following schedule:

    - near the end of the month throughout the year, except for...

    - The Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlooks that will be
       issued at least twice a month during the spring snow-melt
        season beginning in mid-to-late February or early-March.

  The following message has three river data sections...

    - The first (Table 1) gives the current and normal/historical
       chances of river locations reaching their Minor...Moderate
        and Major flood category.

    - The second (Table 2) gives the current chances of river
       locations rising above the river stages listed.

    - The third (Table 3) gives the current chances of river
       locations falling below the river stages listed.

.Red River Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook by Flood Category...
                     from  4/27/2015 to 7/26/2015

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
  probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood
  stages are listed for the valid time period.

  - CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
    based on current conditions.

  - HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
    based on historical or normal conditions.

  - When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
    exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS
    is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is
    lower than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding
                Valid Period:   4/27/2015 - 7/26/2015

                                         : Current and Historical
                                         :  Chances of Exceeding
                                         :    Flood Categories
                                         :   as s Percentage (%)
                         Categorical     :
                      Flood Stages (ft)  :  Minor   Moderate  Major
Location            Minor    Mod   Major :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS
--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON            11.0   13.0   15.0 :  26  55    7  24   <5   9
  HICKSON             30.0   34.0   38.0 :   6  16   <5   7   <5  <5
  FARGO               18.0   25.0   30.0 :  40  72    7  24   <5  13
  HALSTAD             26.0   32.0   37.5 :  <5  18   <5  12   <5  <5
  GRAND FORKS         28.0   40.0   46.0 :   7  52   <5  15   <5   6
  OSLO                26.0   30.0   36.0 :  10  56   <5  46   <5  10
  DRAYTON             32.0   38.0   42.0 :  <5  36   <5  24   <5   7
  PEMBINA             39.0   44.0   49.0 :  <5  41   <5  33   <5  16
Minnesota Tributaries.....
  SABIN               13.0   15.0   19.0 :  21  29   <5  <5   <5  <5
  HAWLEY               8.0    9.0   11.0 :   6  23   <5  12   <5  <5
  DILWORTH            13.0   20.0   26.0 :  26  47   <5   9   <5  <5
  TWIN VALLEY         10.0   12.0   14.0 :  <5   6   <5  <5   <5  <5
  HENDRUM             20.0   28.0   32.0 :  10  36   <5  13   <5  <5
  SHELLY              14.0   20.0   23.0 :  <5  12   <5  <5   <5  <5
  CLIMAX              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  <5  10   <5   6   <5  <5
  HIGH LANDING        12.0   12.5   13.0 :  <5  12   <5   9   <5   7
  CROOKSTON           15.0   23.0   25.0 :   9  43   <5  <5   <5  <5
  ABOVE WARREN        67.0   71.0   75.0 :  <5   9   <5  <5   <5  <5
  ALVARADO           106.0  108.0  110.0 :  <5  13   <5   6   <5  <5
  HALLOCK            802.0  806.0  810.0 :  18  38    7  21   <5  <5
  ROSEAU              16.0   18.0   19.0 :  <5  10   <5  <5   <5  <5
North Dakota Tributaries.....
  ABERCROMBIE         10.0   12.0   18.0 :   9  24    6  18   <5  <5
  VALLEY CITY         15.0   16.0   17.0 :  <5   9   <5   9   <5   6
  LISBON              15.0   17.0   19.0 :  <5  10   <5   6   <5  <5
  KINDRED             16.0   19.0   20.5 :  <5  16   <5   9   <5   6
  WEST FARGO DVRSN    18.0   20.0   21.0 :  <5  18   <5  13   <5  10
  HARWOOD            884.0  886.0  891.0 :  <5  16   <5  13   <5   9
  ENDERLIN             9.5   12.0   14.0 :  <5  10   <5  <5   <5  <5
  MAPLETON           905.0  908.0  910.0 :   6  24   <5   7   <5  <5
  HILLSBORO           10.0   13.0   16.0 :  <5   6   <5  <5   <5  <5
  MINTO                6.0    8.0   11.0 :  <5   6   <5  <5   <5  <5
  GRAFTON             12.0   13.5   14.5 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  WALHALLA            11.0   16.0   18.0 :  <5  13   <5  <5   <5  <5
  NECHE               18.0   19.0   20.5 :  <5  24   <5  18   <5  10

LEGEND:
    CS  =  Conditional Simulation (Outlook for current conditions)
    HS  =  Historical  Simulation ( "       "  normal  conditions)
    ft  =  feet                   (above gage zero datum)


.Probabilities for Rising Above Listed River Stages...
                     from  4/27/2015 to 7/26/2015

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
  probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the
    valid time period at the location listed.

  Interpretation Aid...The flood stage for Wahpeton on the Red
   River of the North is 11 feet. There is a 50 percent chance
    that it will rise above 8.9 feet and only a 10 percent chance
     that it will rise above 12.8 feet.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                                 Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                   at Specific Locations
                           Valid Period:   4/27/2015 - 7/26/2015


LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON             4.8    5.0    6.4    8.9   11.2   12.8   14.6
  HICKSON             11.0   11.1   13.1   16.3   21.5   25.3   32.5
  FARGO               14.7   14.9   15.9   17.1   20.0   24.3   30.2
  HALSTAD              5.1    6.2    7.4   10.5   15.7   19.8   24.2
  GRAND FORKS         16.4   16.9   17.4   18.9   21.8   27.1   30.8
  OSLO                 8.0    9.1   10.3   14.2   20.8   26.5   31.0
  DRAYTON             11.6   12.1   13.0   15.3   19.9   23.6   27.7
  PEMBINA             11.0   12.7   15.9   20.9   26.8   32.0   36.0


MINNESOTA TRIBS:      95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
South Fork Buffalo River.....
  SABIN                5.1    5.1    8.9   10.7   12.9   13.8   15.0
Buffalo River.....
  HAWLEY               3.6    3.8    4.1    4.5    5.2    6.8    9.2
  DILWORTH             3.9    4.2    6.9    9.1   13.4   17.1   19.1
Wild Rice River.....
  TWIN VALLEY          1.9    1.9    2.6    3.4    5.2    6.9    7.9
  HENDRUM              2.3    2.7    4.0    8.3   16.2   20.2   22.3
Marsh River.....
  SHELLY               3.8    3.9    4.1    5.4    8.3   10.1   11.0
Sand Hill River.....
  CLIMAX               4.5    4.9    6.2    7.3    9.7   11.6   14.3
Red Lake river.....
  HIGH LANDING         8.3    8.7    9.0    9.3   10.0   10.6   11.1
  CROOKSTON            6.1    6.7    7.7    9.3   12.0   15.1   17.8
Snake River.....
  ABOVE WARREN        60.5   60.5   61.2   62.2   63.0   64.1   64.3
  ALVARADO            95.7   95.7   96.4   97.7   99.7  102.1  102.9
Two Rivers River.....
  HALLOCK            793.8  795.2  796.3  797.6  800.0  805.3  807.5
Roseau River.....
  ROSEAU               5.2    5.2    6.2    7.2    9.7   13.8   15.3


NORTH DAKOTA TRIBS:   95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Wild Rice River.....
  ABERCROMBIE          0.5    0.7    1.2    2.4    5.1    9.7   15.4
Sheyenne River.....
  VALLEY CITY          3.7    3.7    4.7    5.7    7.5    9.4   11.4
  LISBON               2.5    2.5    3.3    4.4    7.0    9.0   11.7
  KINDRED              2.7    2.7    3.5    5.1    8.6   11.7   14.9
  WEST FARGO DVRSN     9.7    9.7   10.1   11.3   13.7   15.2   17.4
  HARWOOD            867.1  867.1  868.7  871.3  876.2  879.3  882.5
Maple River.....
  ENDERLIN             2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    5.2    8.3   10.0
  MAPLETON           894.5  894.5  894.5  895.7  900.3  903.8  907.1
Goose River.....
  HILLSBORO            1.6    1.6    1.6    2.1    3.4    4.8    6.3
Forest River.....
  MINTO                1.3    1.3    1.4    1.8    3.1    4.1    4.7
Park River.....
  GRAFTON              7.1    7.1    7.2    7.8    8.7    9.1   10.0
Pembina River.....
  WALHALLA             2.3    2.3    2.5    3.2    4.5    6.1    7.3
  NECHE                3.5    3.5    3.8    5.0    7.4    9.7   13.6

.Probabilities for Falling Below Listed River Stages...
                     from  4/27/2015 to 7/26/2015

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
  probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for
   the valid time period at the location listed.

  Interpretation Aid...The flood stage for Wahpeton on the Red
   River of the North is 11 feet. There is a 50 percent chance
    that it will fall below 3.4 feet and only a 10 percent chance
     that it will fall below 3.3 feet.

...Table 3--Non-Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Not Exceeding Stages
                                   at Specific Locations
                           Valid Period:   4/27/2015 - 7/26/2015


LOCATION              95%    50%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON             4.0    4.0    3.7    3.4    3.3    3.3    3.3
  HICKSON             10.2   10.1    9.8    9.5    9.5    9.5    9.5
  FARGO               14.4   14.2   13.9   13.7   13.6   13.6   13.6
  HALSTAD              4.0    3.8    3.2    2.5    2.1    1.9    1.8
  GRAND FORKS         15.7   15.5   15.1   14.9   14.7   14.6   14.6
  OSLO                 6.8    6.1    4.5    3.3    2.5    2.0    1.9
  DRAYTON             11.0   10.8   10.6   10.4   10.3   10.2   10.2
  PEMBINA              9.3    8.5    7.3    5.6    5.0    5.0    5.0


MINNESOTA TRIBS:      95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
South Fork Buffalo River.....
  SABIN                5.0    4.9    4.7    4.5    4.1    3.9    3.5
Buffalo River.....
  HAWLEY               3.2    3.2    3.1    3.0    2.9    2.8    2.6
  DILWORTH             3.2    3.2    3.0    2.8    2.6    2.5    2.4
Wild Rice River.....
  TWIN VALLEY          1.7    1.5    0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9
  HENDRUM              1.8    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6
Marsh River.....
  SHELLY               3.8    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7
Sand Hill River.....
  CLIMAX               3.5    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4
Red Lake river.....
  HIGH LANDING         0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5
  CROOKSTON            4.0    3.6    2.9    2.8    2.7    2.6    2.6
Snake River.....
  ABOVE WARREN        60.2   60.2   60.2   60.2   60.2   60.2   60.2
  ALVARADO            95.0   94.8   94.8   94.8   94.8   94.8   94.8
Two Rivers River.....
  HALLOCK            793.4  793.2  793.1  791.3  791.3  791.3  791.3
Roseau River.....
  ROSEAU               5.1    4.8    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4


NORTH DAKOTA TRIBS:   95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Wild Rice River.....
  ABERCROMBIE          0.4    0.2   -0.0   -0.4   -0.4   -0.4   -0.4
Sheyenne River.....
  VALLEY CITY          3.5    3.5    3.5    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4
  LISBON               2.4    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.2    2.2
  KINDRED              2.3    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.1    2.1    2.1
  WEST FARGO DVRSN     9.4    9.3    9.2    9.1    9.1    9.0    9.0
  HARWOOD            866.5  866.2  865.9  865.6  865.3  865.1  865.0
Maple River.....
  ENDERLIN             1.9    1.9    1.9    1.8    1.8    1.8    1.8
  MAPLETON           894.5  894.4  894.3  894.2  894.2  894.2  894.2
Goose River.....
  HILLSBORO            1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6
Forest River.....
  MINTO                1.3    1.3    1.2    1.2    1.1    1.1    1.0
Park River.....
  GRAFTON              7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1
Pembina River.....
  WALHALLA             2.0    1.9    1.5    1.2    1.0    1.0    1.0
  NECHE                3.0    2.7    2.2    1.7    1.6    1.5    1.5



.THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...

This long range probabilistic outlook is based on a series of peak
 river levels or crests taken from the forecast hydrograph results
 of the NWS Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS). The model
 is run for multiple scenarios starting at current river, low and
 soil conditions and using over 60 years of past precipitation and
 temperature conditions that were experienced for those past years
 during the time-frame of the outlook period. These crests can then
 be ranked from lowest to highest, and then be assigned an
 exceedance probability. For example, For a series of 50 years, the
 lowest ranked crest has 49 crests above it and since 95 percent
 of the crests are above it, it is assigned a 95 percent probability
 of exceedance (POE).

 A YouTube video on "How to Interpret River Outlook Products" is at:

         www.youtube.com/watchv?=pSoEgvsnpv4

The probabilities can be used for risk management by using them as
 an indication of the range of crests that may be expected during
 the valid period of the outlook.

By providing a range of peak river level probabilities, the NWS is
 contributing to the area`s Decision Support Services that help
 with long-range flood planning and response readiness. This outlook
 is a part of NOAA/S National Weather Service`s AHPS (Advanced
 Hydrologic Prediction Services).

This outlook was produced using precipitation and temperatures
 for the years 1949 through 2012.


.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...

The AHPS long-range Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks are issued
 each month typically between the first and second Friday after
 mid-month However, spring flood and water resources outlooks are
 issued several times during the critical spring melt period,
 usually on Thursdays beginning in late February or early March and
 ending in early April, depending on the spring flooding conditions.

This outlook is also presented as graphs of the probability of stage
 exceedance for the full period and for weekly intervals during the
 period. These graphs, together with explanations that help in
 interpreting them are available from the NWS Grand Forks AHPS web
 page on the internet at:

        www.weather.gov/grandforks or weather.gov/fgf

 then click on the "Rivers and Lakes" on the tab above the map.

Current river conditions for all river forecast points in the Red
 River of the North and Devils/Stump Lake conditions are also
 available on our web site, as well as the 7-day forecasts when
 the river at the forecast point is in or near flood.

If you have any questions, contact the NWS at 701-772-0720.

A new, point specific flood briefing web page is available at:

   www.crh.noaa.gov/fgf/briefing/floodbriefing.php

Also, 7-day deterministic forecasts will be issued at least once a
 day when the river forecast locations will be at flood during that
 period.

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks will be issued monthly throughout
 the rest of the year during the later part of the month or as
 conditions warrant.

Refer to the separate Devils Lake Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
 for Devils and Stump Lakes probability of exceedance levels and
 low-water non-exceedance levels.

You can follow us on Facebook at: www.facebook.com/NWSGrandForks
 and on Twitter at: @NWSGrandForks.

$$
     weather.gov/fgf
NNNN







000
FGUS73 KFGF 241404
ESFFGF

MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-089-107-111-113-
119-125-135-159-167-NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-
067-071-073-077-081-091-095-097-099-301200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
902 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015


...RED RIVER BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...

         This outlook covers the Red River of the North
         and its Minnesota and North Dakota tributaries.

  Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks now use 64 years (1949-2012)
    of past weather...temperature and precipitation...for the
    ensemble predictive hydrographs used in calculating the
    probabilities of exceeding a river level for the valid period
    of the outlook.

  Outlook Schedule - The National Weather Service in Grand Forks,
    North Dakota will be providing the Advanced Hydrologic
    Prediction Services (AHPS) Long-Range Probabilistic Hydrologic
    Outlooks for the Red River of the North and its Minnesota and
    North Dakota tributaries according to the following schedule:

    - near the end of the month throughout the year, except for...

    - The Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlooks that will be
       issued at least twice a month during the spring snow-melt
        season beginning in mid-to-late February or early-March.

  The following message has three river data sections...

    - The first (Table 1) gives the current and normal/historical
       chances of river locations reaching their Minor...Moderate
        and Major flood category.

    - The second (Table 2) gives the current chances of river
       locations rising above the river stages listed.

    - The third (Table 3) gives the current chances of river
       locations falling below the river stages listed.

.Red River Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook by Flood Category...
                     from  4/27/2015 to 7/26/2015

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
  probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood
  stages are listed for the valid time period.

  - CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
    based on current conditions.

  - HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
    based on historical or normal conditions.

  - When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
    exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS
    is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is
    lower than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding
                Valid Period:   4/27/2015 - 7/26/2015

                                         : Current and Historical
                                         :  Chances of Exceeding
                                         :    Flood Categories
                                         :   as s Percentage (%)
                         Categorical     :
                      Flood Stages (ft)  :  Minor   Moderate  Major
Location            Minor    Mod   Major :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS
--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON            11.0   13.0   15.0 :  26  55    7  24   <5   9
  HICKSON             30.0   34.0   38.0 :   6  16   <5   7   <5  <5
  FARGO               18.0   25.0   30.0 :  40  72    7  24   <5  13
  HALSTAD             26.0   32.0   37.5 :  <5  18   <5  12   <5  <5
  GRAND FORKS         28.0   40.0   46.0 :   7  52   <5  15   <5   6
  OSLO                26.0   30.0   36.0 :  10  56   <5  46   <5  10
  DRAYTON             32.0   38.0   42.0 :  <5  36   <5  24   <5   7
  PEMBINA             39.0   44.0   49.0 :  <5  41   <5  33   <5  16
Minnesota Tributaries.....
  SABIN               13.0   15.0   19.0 :  21  29   <5  <5   <5  <5
  HAWLEY               8.0    9.0   11.0 :   6  23   <5  12   <5  <5
  DILWORTH            13.0   20.0   26.0 :  26  47   <5   9   <5  <5
  TWIN VALLEY         10.0   12.0   14.0 :  <5   6   <5  <5   <5  <5
  HENDRUM             20.0   28.0   32.0 :  10  36   <5  13   <5  <5
  SHELLY              14.0   20.0   23.0 :  <5  12   <5  <5   <5  <5
  CLIMAX              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  <5  10   <5   6   <5  <5
  HIGH LANDING        12.0   12.5   13.0 :  <5  12   <5   9   <5   7
  CROOKSTON           15.0   23.0   25.0 :   9  43   <5  <5   <5  <5
  ABOVE WARREN        67.0   71.0   75.0 :  <5   9   <5  <5   <5  <5
  ALVARADO           106.0  108.0  110.0 :  <5  13   <5   6   <5  <5
  HALLOCK            802.0  806.0  810.0 :  18  38    7  21   <5  <5
  ROSEAU              16.0   18.0   19.0 :  <5  10   <5  <5   <5  <5
North Dakota Tributaries.....
  ABERCROMBIE         10.0   12.0   18.0 :   9  24    6  18   <5  <5
  VALLEY CITY         15.0   16.0   17.0 :  <5   9   <5   9   <5   6
  LISBON              15.0   17.0   19.0 :  <5  10   <5   6   <5  <5
  KINDRED             16.0   19.0   20.5 :  <5  16   <5   9   <5   6
  WEST FARGO DVRSN    18.0   20.0   21.0 :  <5  18   <5  13   <5  10
  HARWOOD            884.0  886.0  891.0 :  <5  16   <5  13   <5   9
  ENDERLIN             9.5   12.0   14.0 :  <5  10   <5  <5   <5  <5
  MAPLETON           905.0  908.0  910.0 :   6  24   <5   7   <5  <5
  HILLSBORO           10.0   13.0   16.0 :  <5   6   <5  <5   <5  <5
  MINTO                6.0    8.0   11.0 :  <5   6   <5  <5   <5  <5
  GRAFTON             12.0   13.5   14.5 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  WALHALLA            11.0   16.0   18.0 :  <5  13   <5  <5   <5  <5
  NECHE               18.0   19.0   20.5 :  <5  24   <5  18   <5  10

LEGEND:
    CS  =  Conditional Simulation (Outlook for current conditions)
    HS  =  Historical  Simulation ( "       "  normal  conditions)
    ft  =  feet                   (above gage zero datum)


.Probabilities for Rising Above Listed River Stages...
                     from  4/27/2015 to 7/26/2015

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
  probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the
    valid time period at the location listed.

  Interpretation Aid...The flood stage for Wahpeton on the Red
   River of the North is 11 feet. There is a 50 percent chance
    that it will rise above 8.9 feet and only a 10 percent chance
     that it will rise above 12.8 feet.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                                 Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                   at Specific Locations
                           Valid Period:   4/27/2015 - 7/26/2015


LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON             4.8    5.0    6.4    8.9   11.2   12.8   14.6
  HICKSON             11.0   11.1   13.1   16.3   21.5   25.3   32.5
  FARGO               14.7   14.9   15.9   17.1   20.0   24.3   30.2
  HALSTAD              5.1    6.2    7.4   10.5   15.7   19.8   24.2
  GRAND FORKS         16.4   16.9   17.4   18.9   21.8   27.1   30.8
  OSLO                 8.0    9.1   10.3   14.2   20.8   26.5   31.0
  DRAYTON             11.6   12.1   13.0   15.3   19.9   23.6   27.7
  PEMBINA             11.0   12.7   15.9   20.9   26.8   32.0   36.0


MINNESOTA TRIBS:      95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
South Fork Buffalo River.....
  SABIN                5.1    5.1    8.9   10.7   12.9   13.8   15.0
Buffalo River.....
  HAWLEY               3.6    3.8    4.1    4.5    5.2    6.8    9.2
  DILWORTH             3.9    4.2    6.9    9.1   13.4   17.1   19.1
Wild Rice River.....
  TWIN VALLEY          1.9    1.9    2.6    3.4    5.2    6.9    7.9
  HENDRUM              2.3    2.7    4.0    8.3   16.2   20.2   22.3
Marsh River.....
  SHELLY               3.8    3.9    4.1    5.4    8.3   10.1   11.0
Sand Hill River.....
  CLIMAX               4.5    4.9    6.2    7.3    9.7   11.6   14.3
Red Lake river.....
  HIGH LANDING         8.3    8.7    9.0    9.3   10.0   10.6   11.1
  CROOKSTON            6.1    6.7    7.7    9.3   12.0   15.1   17.8
Snake River.....
  ABOVE WARREN        60.5   60.5   61.2   62.2   63.0   64.1   64.3
  ALVARADO            95.7   95.7   96.4   97.7   99.7  102.1  102.9
Two Rivers River.....
  HALLOCK            793.8  795.2  796.3  797.6  800.0  805.3  807.5
Roseau River.....
  ROSEAU               5.2    5.2    6.2    7.2    9.7   13.8   15.3


NORTH DAKOTA TRIBS:   95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Wild Rice River.....
  ABERCROMBIE          0.5    0.7    1.2    2.4    5.1    9.7   15.4
Sheyenne River.....
  VALLEY CITY          3.7    3.7    4.7    5.7    7.5    9.4   11.4
  LISBON               2.5    2.5    3.3    4.4    7.0    9.0   11.7
  KINDRED              2.7    2.7    3.5    5.1    8.6   11.7   14.9
  WEST FARGO DVRSN     9.7    9.7   10.1   11.3   13.7   15.2   17.4
  HARWOOD            867.1  867.1  868.7  871.3  876.2  879.3  882.5
Maple River.....
  ENDERLIN             2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    5.2    8.3   10.0
  MAPLETON           894.5  894.5  894.5  895.7  900.3  903.8  907.1
Goose River.....
  HILLSBORO            1.6    1.6    1.6    2.1    3.4    4.8    6.3
Forest River.....
  MINTO                1.3    1.3    1.4    1.8    3.1    4.1    4.7
Park River.....
  GRAFTON              7.1    7.1    7.2    7.8    8.7    9.1   10.0
Pembina River.....
  WALHALLA             2.3    2.3    2.5    3.2    4.5    6.1    7.3
  NECHE                3.5    3.5    3.8    5.0    7.4    9.7   13.6

.Probabilities for Falling Below Listed River Stages...
                     from  4/27/2015 to 7/26/2015

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
  probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for
   the valid time period at the location listed.

  Interpretation Aid...The flood stage for Wahpeton on the Red
   River of the North is 11 feet. There is a 50 percent chance
    that it will fall below 3.4 feet and only a 10 percent chance
     that it will fall below 3.3 feet.

...Table 3--Non-Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Not Exceeding Stages
                                   at Specific Locations
                           Valid Period:   4/27/2015 - 7/26/2015


LOCATION              95%    50%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON             4.0    4.0    3.7    3.4    3.3    3.3    3.3
  HICKSON             10.2   10.1    9.8    9.5    9.5    9.5    9.5
  FARGO               14.4   14.2   13.9   13.7   13.6   13.6   13.6
  HALSTAD              4.0    3.8    3.2    2.5    2.1    1.9    1.8
  GRAND FORKS         15.7   15.5   15.1   14.9   14.7   14.6   14.6
  OSLO                 6.8    6.1    4.5    3.3    2.5    2.0    1.9
  DRAYTON             11.0   10.8   10.6   10.4   10.3   10.2   10.2
  PEMBINA              9.3    8.5    7.3    5.6    5.0    5.0    5.0


MINNESOTA TRIBS:      95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
South Fork Buffalo River.....
  SABIN                5.0    4.9    4.7    4.5    4.1    3.9    3.5
Buffalo River.....
  HAWLEY               3.2    3.2    3.1    3.0    2.9    2.8    2.6
  DILWORTH             3.2    3.2    3.0    2.8    2.6    2.5    2.4
Wild Rice River.....
  TWIN VALLEY          1.7    1.5    0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9
  HENDRUM              1.8    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6
Marsh River.....
  SHELLY               3.8    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7
Sand Hill River.....
  CLIMAX               3.5    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4
Red Lake river.....
  HIGH LANDING         0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5
  CROOKSTON            4.0    3.6    2.9    2.8    2.7    2.6    2.6
Snake River.....
  ABOVE WARREN        60.2   60.2   60.2   60.2   60.2   60.2   60.2
  ALVARADO            95.0   94.8   94.8   94.8   94.8   94.8   94.8
Two Rivers River.....
  HALLOCK            793.4  793.2  793.1  791.3  791.3  791.3  791.3
Roseau River.....
  ROSEAU               5.1    4.8    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4


NORTH DAKOTA TRIBS:   95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Wild Rice River.....
  ABERCROMBIE          0.4    0.2   -0.0   -0.4   -0.4   -0.4   -0.4
Sheyenne River.....
  VALLEY CITY          3.5    3.5    3.5    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4
  LISBON               2.4    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.2    2.2
  KINDRED              2.3    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.1    2.1    2.1
  WEST FARGO DVRSN     9.4    9.3    9.2    9.1    9.1    9.0    9.0
  HARWOOD            866.5  866.2  865.9  865.6  865.3  865.1  865.0
Maple River.....
  ENDERLIN             1.9    1.9    1.9    1.8    1.8    1.8    1.8
  MAPLETON           894.5  894.4  894.3  894.2  894.2  894.2  894.2
Goose River.....
  HILLSBORO            1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6
Forest River.....
  MINTO                1.3    1.3    1.2    1.2    1.1    1.1    1.0
Park River.....
  GRAFTON              7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1
Pembina River.....
  WALHALLA             2.0    1.9    1.5    1.2    1.0    1.0    1.0
  NECHE                3.0    2.7    2.2    1.7    1.6    1.5    1.5



.THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...

This long range probabilistic outlook is based on a series of peak
 river levels or crests taken from the forecast hydrograph results
 of the NWS Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS). The model
 is run for multiple scenarios starting at current river, low and
 soil conditions and using over 60 years of past precipitation and
 temperature conditions that were experienced for those past years
 during the time-frame of the outlook period. These crests can then
 be ranked from lowest to highest, and then be assigned an
 exceedance probability. For example, For a series of 50 years, the
 lowest ranked crest has 49 crests above it and since 95 percent
 of the crests are above it, it is assigned a 95 percent probability
 of exceedance (POE).

 A YouTube video on "How to Interpret River Outlook Products" is at:

         www.youtube.com/watchv?=pSoEgvsnpv4

The probabilities can be used for risk management by using them as
 an indication of the range of crests that may be expected during
 the valid period of the outlook.

By providing a range of peak river level probabilities, the NWS is
 contributing to the area`s Decision Support Services that help
 with long-range flood planning and response readiness. This outlook
 is a part of NOAA/S National Weather Service`s AHPS (Advanced
 Hydrologic Prediction Services).

This outlook was produced using precipitation and temperatures
 for the years 1949 through 2012.


.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...

The AHPS long-range Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks are issued
 each month typically between the first and second Friday after
 mid-month However, spring flood and water resources outlooks are
 issued several times during the critical spring melt period,
 usually on Thursdays beginning in late February or early March and
 ending in early April, depending on the spring flooding conditions.

This outlook is also presented as graphs of the probability of stage
 exceedance for the full period and for weekly intervals during the
 period. These graphs, together with explanations that help in
 interpreting them are available from the NWS Grand Forks AHPS web
 page on the internet at:

        www.weather.gov/grandforks or weather.gov/fgf

 then click on the "Rivers and Lakes" on the tab above the map.

Current river conditions for all river forecast points in the Red
 River of the North and Devils/Stump Lake conditions are also
 available on our web site, as well as the 7-day forecasts when
 the river at the forecast point is in or near flood.

If you have any questions, contact the NWS at 701-772-0720.

A new, point specific flood briefing web page is available at:

   www.crh.noaa.gov/fgf/briefing/floodbriefing.php

Also, 7-day deterministic forecasts will be issued at least once a
 day when the river forecast locations will be at flood during that
 period.

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks will be issued monthly throughout
 the rest of the year during the later part of the month or as
 conditions warrant.

Refer to the separate Devils Lake Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
 for Devils and Stump Lakes probability of exceedance levels and
 low-water non-exceedance levels.

You can follow us on Facebook at: www.facebook.com/NWSGrandForks
 and on Twitter at: @NWSGrandForks.

$$
     weather.gov/fgf
NNNN







000
FGUS73 KFGF 241404
ESFFGF

MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-089-107-111-113-
119-125-135-159-167-NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-
067-071-073-077-081-091-095-097-099-301200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
902 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015


...RED RIVER BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...

         This outlook covers the Red River of the North
         and its Minnesota and North Dakota tributaries.

  Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks now use 64 years (1949-2012)
    of past weather...temperature and precipitation...for the
    ensemble predictive hydrographs used in calculating the
    probabilities of exceeding a river level for the valid period
    of the outlook.

  Outlook Schedule - The National Weather Service in Grand Forks,
    North Dakota will be providing the Advanced Hydrologic
    Prediction Services (AHPS) Long-Range Probabilistic Hydrologic
    Outlooks for the Red River of the North and its Minnesota and
    North Dakota tributaries according to the following schedule:

    - near the end of the month throughout the year, except for...

    - The Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlooks that will be
       issued at least twice a month during the spring snow-melt
        season beginning in mid-to-late February or early-March.

  The following message has three river data sections...

    - The first (Table 1) gives the current and normal/historical
       chances of river locations reaching their Minor...Moderate
        and Major flood category.

    - The second (Table 2) gives the current chances of river
       locations rising above the river stages listed.

    - The third (Table 3) gives the current chances of river
       locations falling below the river stages listed.

.Red River Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook by Flood Category...
                     from  4/27/2015 to 7/26/2015

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
  probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood
  stages are listed for the valid time period.

  - CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
    based on current conditions.

  - HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
    based on historical or normal conditions.

  - When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
    exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS
    is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is
    lower than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding
                Valid Period:   4/27/2015 - 7/26/2015

                                         : Current and Historical
                                         :  Chances of Exceeding
                                         :    Flood Categories
                                         :   as s Percentage (%)
                         Categorical     :
                      Flood Stages (ft)  :  Minor   Moderate  Major
Location            Minor    Mod   Major :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS
--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON            11.0   13.0   15.0 :  26  55    7  24   <5   9
  HICKSON             30.0   34.0   38.0 :   6  16   <5   7   <5  <5
  FARGO               18.0   25.0   30.0 :  40  72    7  24   <5  13
  HALSTAD             26.0   32.0   37.5 :  <5  18   <5  12   <5  <5
  GRAND FORKS         28.0   40.0   46.0 :   7  52   <5  15   <5   6
  OSLO                26.0   30.0   36.0 :  10  56   <5  46   <5  10
  DRAYTON             32.0   38.0   42.0 :  <5  36   <5  24   <5   7
  PEMBINA             39.0   44.0   49.0 :  <5  41   <5  33   <5  16
Minnesota Tributaries.....
  SABIN               13.0   15.0   19.0 :  21  29   <5  <5   <5  <5
  HAWLEY               8.0    9.0   11.0 :   6  23   <5  12   <5  <5
  DILWORTH            13.0   20.0   26.0 :  26  47   <5   9   <5  <5
  TWIN VALLEY         10.0   12.0   14.0 :  <5   6   <5  <5   <5  <5
  HENDRUM             20.0   28.0   32.0 :  10  36   <5  13   <5  <5
  SHELLY              14.0   20.0   23.0 :  <5  12   <5  <5   <5  <5
  CLIMAX              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  <5  10   <5   6   <5  <5
  HIGH LANDING        12.0   12.5   13.0 :  <5  12   <5   9   <5   7
  CROOKSTON           15.0   23.0   25.0 :   9  43   <5  <5   <5  <5
  ABOVE WARREN        67.0   71.0   75.0 :  <5   9   <5  <5   <5  <5
  ALVARADO           106.0  108.0  110.0 :  <5  13   <5   6   <5  <5
  HALLOCK            802.0  806.0  810.0 :  18  38    7  21   <5  <5
  ROSEAU              16.0   18.0   19.0 :  <5  10   <5  <5   <5  <5
North Dakota Tributaries.....
  ABERCROMBIE         10.0   12.0   18.0 :   9  24    6  18   <5  <5
  VALLEY CITY         15.0   16.0   17.0 :  <5   9   <5   9   <5   6
  LISBON              15.0   17.0   19.0 :  <5  10   <5   6   <5  <5
  KINDRED             16.0   19.0   20.5 :  <5  16   <5   9   <5   6
  WEST FARGO DVRSN    18.0   20.0   21.0 :  <5  18   <5  13   <5  10
  HARWOOD            884.0  886.0  891.0 :  <5  16   <5  13   <5   9
  ENDERLIN             9.5   12.0   14.0 :  <5  10   <5  <5   <5  <5
  MAPLETON           905.0  908.0  910.0 :   6  24   <5   7   <5  <5
  HILLSBORO           10.0   13.0   16.0 :  <5   6   <5  <5   <5  <5
  MINTO                6.0    8.0   11.0 :  <5   6   <5  <5   <5  <5
  GRAFTON             12.0   13.5   14.5 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  WALHALLA            11.0   16.0   18.0 :  <5  13   <5  <5   <5  <5
  NECHE               18.0   19.0   20.5 :  <5  24   <5  18   <5  10

LEGEND:
    CS  =  Conditional Simulation (Outlook for current conditions)
    HS  =  Historical  Simulation ( "       "  normal  conditions)
    ft  =  feet                   (above gage zero datum)


.Probabilities for Rising Above Listed River Stages...
                     from  4/27/2015 to 7/26/2015

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
  probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the
    valid time period at the location listed.

  Interpretation Aid...The flood stage for Wahpeton on the Red
   River of the North is 11 feet. There is a 50 percent chance
    that it will rise above 8.9 feet and only a 10 percent chance
     that it will rise above 12.8 feet.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                                 Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                   at Specific Locations
                           Valid Period:   4/27/2015 - 7/26/2015


LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON             4.8    5.0    6.4    8.9   11.2   12.8   14.6
  HICKSON             11.0   11.1   13.1   16.3   21.5   25.3   32.5
  FARGO               14.7   14.9   15.9   17.1   20.0   24.3   30.2
  HALSTAD              5.1    6.2    7.4   10.5   15.7   19.8   24.2
  GRAND FORKS         16.4   16.9   17.4   18.9   21.8   27.1   30.8
  OSLO                 8.0    9.1   10.3   14.2   20.8   26.5   31.0
  DRAYTON             11.6   12.1   13.0   15.3   19.9   23.6   27.7
  PEMBINA             11.0   12.7   15.9   20.9   26.8   32.0   36.0


MINNESOTA TRIBS:      95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
South Fork Buffalo River.....
  SABIN                5.1    5.1    8.9   10.7   12.9   13.8   15.0
Buffalo River.....
  HAWLEY               3.6    3.8    4.1    4.5    5.2    6.8    9.2
  DILWORTH             3.9    4.2    6.9    9.1   13.4   17.1   19.1
Wild Rice River.....
  TWIN VALLEY          1.9    1.9    2.6    3.4    5.2    6.9    7.9
  HENDRUM              2.3    2.7    4.0    8.3   16.2   20.2   22.3
Marsh River.....
  SHELLY               3.8    3.9    4.1    5.4    8.3   10.1   11.0
Sand Hill River.....
  CLIMAX               4.5    4.9    6.2    7.3    9.7   11.6   14.3
Red Lake river.....
  HIGH LANDING         8.3    8.7    9.0    9.3   10.0   10.6   11.1
  CROOKSTON            6.1    6.7    7.7    9.3   12.0   15.1   17.8
Snake River.....
  ABOVE WARREN        60.5   60.5   61.2   62.2   63.0   64.1   64.3
  ALVARADO            95.7   95.7   96.4   97.7   99.7  102.1  102.9
Two Rivers River.....
  HALLOCK            793.8  795.2  796.3  797.6  800.0  805.3  807.5
Roseau River.....
  ROSEAU               5.2    5.2    6.2    7.2    9.7   13.8   15.3


NORTH DAKOTA TRIBS:   95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Wild Rice River.....
  ABERCROMBIE          0.5    0.7    1.2    2.4    5.1    9.7   15.4
Sheyenne River.....
  VALLEY CITY          3.7    3.7    4.7    5.7    7.5    9.4   11.4
  LISBON               2.5    2.5    3.3    4.4    7.0    9.0   11.7
  KINDRED              2.7    2.7    3.5    5.1    8.6   11.7   14.9
  WEST FARGO DVRSN     9.7    9.7   10.1   11.3   13.7   15.2   17.4
  HARWOOD            867.1  867.1  868.7  871.3  876.2  879.3  882.5
Maple River.....
  ENDERLIN             2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    5.2    8.3   10.0
  MAPLETON           894.5  894.5  894.5  895.7  900.3  903.8  907.1
Goose River.....
  HILLSBORO            1.6    1.6    1.6    2.1    3.4    4.8    6.3
Forest River.....
  MINTO                1.3    1.3    1.4    1.8    3.1    4.1    4.7
Park River.....
  GRAFTON              7.1    7.1    7.2    7.8    8.7    9.1   10.0
Pembina River.....
  WALHALLA             2.3    2.3    2.5    3.2    4.5    6.1    7.3
  NECHE                3.5    3.5    3.8    5.0    7.4    9.7   13.6

.Probabilities for Falling Below Listed River Stages...
                     from  4/27/2015 to 7/26/2015

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
  probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for
   the valid time period at the location listed.

  Interpretation Aid...The flood stage for Wahpeton on the Red
   River of the North is 11 feet. There is a 50 percent chance
    that it will fall below 3.4 feet and only a 10 percent chance
     that it will fall below 3.3 feet.

...Table 3--Non-Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Not Exceeding Stages
                                   at Specific Locations
                           Valid Period:   4/27/2015 - 7/26/2015


LOCATION              95%    50%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON             4.0    4.0    3.7    3.4    3.3    3.3    3.3
  HICKSON             10.2   10.1    9.8    9.5    9.5    9.5    9.5
  FARGO               14.4   14.2   13.9   13.7   13.6   13.6   13.6
  HALSTAD              4.0    3.8    3.2    2.5    2.1    1.9    1.8
  GRAND FORKS         15.7   15.5   15.1   14.9   14.7   14.6   14.6
  OSLO                 6.8    6.1    4.5    3.3    2.5    2.0    1.9
  DRAYTON             11.0   10.8   10.6   10.4   10.3   10.2   10.2
  PEMBINA              9.3    8.5    7.3    5.6    5.0    5.0    5.0


MINNESOTA TRIBS:      95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
South Fork Buffalo River.....
  SABIN                5.0    4.9    4.7    4.5    4.1    3.9    3.5
Buffalo River.....
  HAWLEY               3.2    3.2    3.1    3.0    2.9    2.8    2.6
  DILWORTH             3.2    3.2    3.0    2.8    2.6    2.5    2.4
Wild Rice River.....
  TWIN VALLEY          1.7    1.5    0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9
  HENDRUM              1.8    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6
Marsh River.....
  SHELLY               3.8    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7
Sand Hill River.....
  CLIMAX               3.5    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4
Red Lake river.....
  HIGH LANDING         0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5
  CROOKSTON            4.0    3.6    2.9    2.8    2.7    2.6    2.6
Snake River.....
  ABOVE WARREN        60.2   60.2   60.2   60.2   60.2   60.2   60.2
  ALVARADO            95.0   94.8   94.8   94.8   94.8   94.8   94.8
Two Rivers River.....
  HALLOCK            793.4  793.2  793.1  791.3  791.3  791.3  791.3
Roseau River.....
  ROSEAU               5.1    4.8    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4


NORTH DAKOTA TRIBS:   95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Wild Rice River.....
  ABERCROMBIE          0.4    0.2   -0.0   -0.4   -0.4   -0.4   -0.4
Sheyenne River.....
  VALLEY CITY          3.5    3.5    3.5    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4
  LISBON               2.4    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.2    2.2
  KINDRED              2.3    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.1    2.1    2.1
  WEST FARGO DVRSN     9.4    9.3    9.2    9.1    9.1    9.0    9.0
  HARWOOD            866.5  866.2  865.9  865.6  865.3  865.1  865.0
Maple River.....
  ENDERLIN             1.9    1.9    1.9    1.8    1.8    1.8    1.8
  MAPLETON           894.5  894.4  894.3  894.2  894.2  894.2  894.2
Goose River.....
  HILLSBORO            1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6
Forest River.....
  MINTO                1.3    1.3    1.2    1.2    1.1    1.1    1.0
Park River.....
  GRAFTON              7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1
Pembina River.....
  WALHALLA             2.0    1.9    1.5    1.2    1.0    1.0    1.0
  NECHE                3.0    2.7    2.2    1.7    1.6    1.5    1.5



.THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...

This long range probabilistic outlook is based on a series of peak
 river levels or crests taken from the forecast hydrograph results
 of the NWS Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS). The model
 is run for multiple scenarios starting at current river, low and
 soil conditions and using over 60 years of past precipitation and
 temperature conditions that were experienced for those past years
 during the time-frame of the outlook period. These crests can then
 be ranked from lowest to highest, and then be assigned an
 exceedance probability. For example, For a series of 50 years, the
 lowest ranked crest has 49 crests above it and since 95 percent
 of the crests are above it, it is assigned a 95 percent probability
 of exceedance (POE).

 A YouTube video on "How to Interpret River Outlook Products" is at:

         www.youtube.com/watchv?=pSoEgvsnpv4

The probabilities can be used for risk management by using them as
 an indication of the range of crests that may be expected during
 the valid period of the outlook.

By providing a range of peak river level probabilities, the NWS is
 contributing to the area`s Decision Support Services that help
 with long-range flood planning and response readiness. This outlook
 is a part of NOAA/S National Weather Service`s AHPS (Advanced
 Hydrologic Prediction Services).

This outlook was produced using precipitation and temperatures
 for the years 1949 through 2012.


.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...

The AHPS long-range Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks are issued
 each month typically between the first and second Friday after
 mid-month However, spring flood and water resources outlooks are
 issued several times during the critical spring melt period,
 usually on Thursdays beginning in late February or early March and
 ending in early April, depending on the spring flooding conditions.

This outlook is also presented as graphs of the probability of stage
 exceedance for the full period and for weekly intervals during the
 period. These graphs, together with explanations that help in
 interpreting them are available from the NWS Grand Forks AHPS web
 page on the internet at:

        www.weather.gov/grandforks or weather.gov/fgf

 then click on the "Rivers and Lakes" on the tab above the map.

Current river conditions for all river forecast points in the Red
 River of the North and Devils/Stump Lake conditions are also
 available on our web site, as well as the 7-day forecasts when
 the river at the forecast point is in or near flood.

If you have any questions, contact the NWS at 701-772-0720.

A new, point specific flood briefing web page is available at:

   www.crh.noaa.gov/fgf/briefing/floodbriefing.php

Also, 7-day deterministic forecasts will be issued at least once a
 day when the river forecast locations will be at flood during that
 period.

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks will be issued monthly throughout
 the rest of the year during the later part of the month or as
 conditions warrant.

Refer to the separate Devils Lake Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
 for Devils and Stump Lakes probability of exceedance levels and
 low-water non-exceedance levels.

You can follow us on Facebook at: www.facebook.com/NWSGrandForks
 and on Twitter at: @NWSGrandForks.

$$
     weather.gov/fgf
NNNN








000
FGUS73 KFGF 241404
ESFFGF

MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-089-107-111-113-
119-125-135-159-167-NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-
067-071-073-077-081-091-095-097-099-301200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
902 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015


...RED RIVER BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...

         This outlook covers the Red River of the North
         and its Minnesota and North Dakota tributaries.

  Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks now use 64 years (1949-2012)
    of past weather...temperature and precipitation...for the
    ensemble predictive hydrographs used in calculating the
    probabilities of exceeding a river level for the valid period
    of the outlook.

  Outlook Schedule - The National Weather Service in Grand Forks,
    North Dakota will be providing the Advanced Hydrologic
    Prediction Services (AHPS) Long-Range Probabilistic Hydrologic
    Outlooks for the Red River of the North and its Minnesota and
    North Dakota tributaries according to the following schedule:

    - near the end of the month throughout the year, except for...

    - The Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlooks that will be
       issued at least twice a month during the spring snow-melt
        season beginning in mid-to-late February or early-March.

  The following message has three river data sections...

    - The first (Table 1) gives the current and normal/historical
       chances of river locations reaching their Minor...Moderate
        and Major flood category.

    - The second (Table 2) gives the current chances of river
       locations rising above the river stages listed.

    - The third (Table 3) gives the current chances of river
       locations falling below the river stages listed.

.Red River Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook by Flood Category...
                     from  4/27/2015 to 7/26/2015

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
  probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood
  stages are listed for the valid time period.

  - CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
    based on current conditions.

  - HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
    based on historical or normal conditions.

  - When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
    exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS
    is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is
    lower than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding
                Valid Period:   4/27/2015 - 7/26/2015

                                         : Current and Historical
                                         :  Chances of Exceeding
                                         :    Flood Categories
                                         :   as s Percentage (%)
                         Categorical     :
                      Flood Stages (ft)  :  Minor   Moderate  Major
Location            Minor    Mod   Major :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS
--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON            11.0   13.0   15.0 :  26  55    7  24   <5   9
  HICKSON             30.0   34.0   38.0 :   6  16   <5   7   <5  <5
  FARGO               18.0   25.0   30.0 :  40  72    7  24   <5  13
  HALSTAD             26.0   32.0   37.5 :  <5  18   <5  12   <5  <5
  GRAND FORKS         28.0   40.0   46.0 :   7  52   <5  15   <5   6
  OSLO                26.0   30.0   36.0 :  10  56   <5  46   <5  10
  DRAYTON             32.0   38.0   42.0 :  <5  36   <5  24   <5   7
  PEMBINA             39.0   44.0   49.0 :  <5  41   <5  33   <5  16
Minnesota Tributaries.....
  SABIN               13.0   15.0   19.0 :  21  29   <5  <5   <5  <5
  HAWLEY               8.0    9.0   11.0 :   6  23   <5  12   <5  <5
  DILWORTH            13.0   20.0   26.0 :  26  47   <5   9   <5  <5
  TWIN VALLEY         10.0   12.0   14.0 :  <5   6   <5  <5   <5  <5
  HENDRUM             20.0   28.0   32.0 :  10  36   <5  13   <5  <5
  SHELLY              14.0   20.0   23.0 :  <5  12   <5  <5   <5  <5
  CLIMAX              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  <5  10   <5   6   <5  <5
  HIGH LANDING        12.0   12.5   13.0 :  <5  12   <5   9   <5   7
  CROOKSTON           15.0   23.0   25.0 :   9  43   <5  <5   <5  <5
  ABOVE WARREN        67.0   71.0   75.0 :  <5   9   <5  <5   <5  <5
  ALVARADO           106.0  108.0  110.0 :  <5  13   <5   6   <5  <5
  HALLOCK            802.0  806.0  810.0 :  18  38    7  21   <5  <5
  ROSEAU              16.0   18.0   19.0 :  <5  10   <5  <5   <5  <5
North Dakota Tributaries.....
  ABERCROMBIE         10.0   12.0   18.0 :   9  24    6  18   <5  <5
  VALLEY CITY         15.0   16.0   17.0 :  <5   9   <5   9   <5   6
  LISBON              15.0   17.0   19.0 :  <5  10   <5   6   <5  <5
  KINDRED             16.0   19.0   20.5 :  <5  16   <5   9   <5   6
  WEST FARGO DVRSN    18.0   20.0   21.0 :  <5  18   <5  13   <5  10
  HARWOOD            884.0  886.0  891.0 :  <5  16   <5  13   <5   9
  ENDERLIN             9.5   12.0   14.0 :  <5  10   <5  <5   <5  <5
  MAPLETON           905.0  908.0  910.0 :   6  24   <5   7   <5  <5
  HILLSBORO           10.0   13.0   16.0 :  <5   6   <5  <5   <5  <5
  MINTO                6.0    8.0   11.0 :  <5   6   <5  <5   <5  <5
  GRAFTON             12.0   13.5   14.5 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  WALHALLA            11.0   16.0   18.0 :  <5  13   <5  <5   <5  <5
  NECHE               18.0   19.0   20.5 :  <5  24   <5  18   <5  10

LEGEND:
    CS  =  Conditional Simulation (Outlook for current conditions)
    HS  =  Historical  Simulation ( "       "  normal  conditions)
    ft  =  feet                   (above gage zero datum)


.Probabilities for Rising Above Listed River Stages...
                     from  4/27/2015 to 7/26/2015

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
  probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the
    valid time period at the location listed.

  Interpretation Aid...The flood stage for Wahpeton on the Red
   River of the North is 11 feet. There is a 50 percent chance
    that it will rise above 8.9 feet and only a 10 percent chance
     that it will rise above 12.8 feet.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                                 Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                   at Specific Locations
                           Valid Period:   4/27/2015 - 7/26/2015


LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON             4.8    5.0    6.4    8.9   11.2   12.8   14.6
  HICKSON             11.0   11.1   13.1   16.3   21.5   25.3   32.5
  FARGO               14.7   14.9   15.9   17.1   20.0   24.3   30.2
  HALSTAD              5.1    6.2    7.4   10.5   15.7   19.8   24.2
  GRAND FORKS         16.4   16.9   17.4   18.9   21.8   27.1   30.8
  OSLO                 8.0    9.1   10.3   14.2   20.8   26.5   31.0
  DRAYTON             11.6   12.1   13.0   15.3   19.9   23.6   27.7
  PEMBINA             11.0   12.7   15.9   20.9   26.8   32.0   36.0


MINNESOTA TRIBS:      95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
South Fork Buffalo River.....
  SABIN                5.1    5.1    8.9   10.7   12.9   13.8   15.0
Buffalo River.....
  HAWLEY               3.6    3.8    4.1    4.5    5.2    6.8    9.2
  DILWORTH             3.9    4.2    6.9    9.1   13.4   17.1   19.1
Wild Rice River.....
  TWIN VALLEY          1.9    1.9    2.6    3.4    5.2    6.9    7.9
  HENDRUM              2.3    2.7    4.0    8.3   16.2   20.2   22.3
Marsh River.....
  SHELLY               3.8    3.9    4.1    5.4    8.3   10.1   11.0
Sand Hill River.....
  CLIMAX               4.5    4.9    6.2    7.3    9.7   11.6   14.3
Red Lake river.....
  HIGH LANDING         8.3    8.7    9.0    9.3   10.0   10.6   11.1
  CROOKSTON            6.1    6.7    7.7    9.3   12.0   15.1   17.8
Snake River.....
  ABOVE WARREN        60.5   60.5   61.2   62.2   63.0   64.1   64.3
  ALVARADO            95.7   95.7   96.4   97.7   99.7  102.1  102.9
Two Rivers River.....
  HALLOCK            793.8  795.2  796.3  797.6  800.0  805.3  807.5
Roseau River.....
  ROSEAU               5.2    5.2    6.2    7.2    9.7   13.8   15.3


NORTH DAKOTA TRIBS:   95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Wild Rice River.....
  ABERCROMBIE          0.5    0.7    1.2    2.4    5.1    9.7   15.4
Sheyenne River.....
  VALLEY CITY          3.7    3.7    4.7    5.7    7.5    9.4   11.4
  LISBON               2.5    2.5    3.3    4.4    7.0    9.0   11.7
  KINDRED              2.7    2.7    3.5    5.1    8.6   11.7   14.9
  WEST FARGO DVRSN     9.7    9.7   10.1   11.3   13.7   15.2   17.4
  HARWOOD            867.1  867.1  868.7  871.3  876.2  879.3  882.5
Maple River.....
  ENDERLIN             2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    5.2    8.3   10.0
  MAPLETON           894.5  894.5  894.5  895.7  900.3  903.8  907.1
Goose River.....
  HILLSBORO            1.6    1.6    1.6    2.1    3.4    4.8    6.3
Forest River.....
  MINTO                1.3    1.3    1.4    1.8    3.1    4.1    4.7
Park River.....
  GRAFTON              7.1    7.1    7.2    7.8    8.7    9.1   10.0
Pembina River.....
  WALHALLA             2.3    2.3    2.5    3.2    4.5    6.1    7.3
  NECHE                3.5    3.5    3.8    5.0    7.4    9.7   13.6

.Probabilities for Falling Below Listed River Stages...
                     from  4/27/2015 to 7/26/2015

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
  probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for
   the valid time period at the location listed.

  Interpretation Aid...The flood stage for Wahpeton on the Red
   River of the North is 11 feet. There is a 50 percent chance
    that it will fall below 3.4 feet and only a 10 percent chance
     that it will fall below 3.3 feet.

...Table 3--Non-Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Not Exceeding Stages
                                   at Specific Locations
                           Valid Period:   4/27/2015 - 7/26/2015


LOCATION              95%    50%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON             4.0    4.0    3.7    3.4    3.3    3.3    3.3
  HICKSON             10.2   10.1    9.8    9.5    9.5    9.5    9.5
  FARGO               14.4   14.2   13.9   13.7   13.6   13.6   13.6
  HALSTAD              4.0    3.8    3.2    2.5    2.1    1.9    1.8
  GRAND FORKS         15.7   15.5   15.1   14.9   14.7   14.6   14.6
  OSLO                 6.8    6.1    4.5    3.3    2.5    2.0    1.9
  DRAYTON             11.0   10.8   10.6   10.4   10.3   10.2   10.2
  PEMBINA              9.3    8.5    7.3    5.6    5.0    5.0    5.0


MINNESOTA TRIBS:      95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
South Fork Buffalo River.....
  SABIN                5.0    4.9    4.7    4.5    4.1    3.9    3.5
Buffalo River.....
  HAWLEY               3.2    3.2    3.1    3.0    2.9    2.8    2.6
  DILWORTH             3.2    3.2    3.0    2.8    2.6    2.5    2.4
Wild Rice River.....
  TWIN VALLEY          1.7    1.5    0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9
  HENDRUM              1.8    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6
Marsh River.....
  SHELLY               3.8    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7
Sand Hill River.....
  CLIMAX               3.5    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4
Red Lake river.....
  HIGH LANDING         0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5
  CROOKSTON            4.0    3.6    2.9    2.8    2.7    2.6    2.6
Snake River.....
  ABOVE WARREN        60.2   60.2   60.2   60.2   60.2   60.2   60.2
  ALVARADO            95.0   94.8   94.8   94.8   94.8   94.8   94.8
Two Rivers River.....
  HALLOCK            793.4  793.2  793.1  791.3  791.3  791.3  791.3
Roseau River.....
  ROSEAU               5.1    4.8    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4


NORTH DAKOTA TRIBS:   95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Wild Rice River.....
  ABERCROMBIE          0.4    0.2   -0.0   -0.4   -0.4   -0.4   -0.4
Sheyenne River.....
  VALLEY CITY          3.5    3.5    3.5    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4
  LISBON               2.4    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.2    2.2
  KINDRED              2.3    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.1    2.1    2.1
  WEST FARGO DVRSN     9.4    9.3    9.2    9.1    9.1    9.0    9.0
  HARWOOD            866.5  866.2  865.9  865.6  865.3  865.1  865.0
Maple River.....
  ENDERLIN             1.9    1.9    1.9    1.8    1.8    1.8    1.8
  MAPLETON           894.5  894.4  894.3  894.2  894.2  894.2  894.2
Goose River.....
  HILLSBORO            1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6
Forest River.....
  MINTO                1.3    1.3    1.2    1.2    1.1    1.1    1.0
Park River.....
  GRAFTON              7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1
Pembina River.....
  WALHALLA             2.0    1.9    1.5    1.2    1.0    1.0    1.0
  NECHE                3.0    2.7    2.2    1.7    1.6    1.5    1.5



.THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...

This long range probabilistic outlook is based on a series of peak
 river levels or crests taken from the forecast hydrograph results
 of the NWS Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS). The model
 is run for multiple scenarios starting at current river, low and
 soil conditions and using over 60 years of past precipitation and
 temperature conditions that were experienced for those past years
 during the time-frame of the outlook period. These crests can then
 be ranked from lowest to highest, and then be assigned an
 exceedance probability. For example, For a series of 50 years, the
 lowest ranked crest has 49 crests above it and since 95 percent
 of the crests are above it, it is assigned a 95 percent probability
 of exceedance (POE).

 A YouTube video on "How to Interpret River Outlook Products" is at:

         www.youtube.com/watchv?=pSoEgvsnpv4

The probabilities can be used for risk management by using them as
 an indication of the range of crests that may be expected during
 the valid period of the outlook.

By providing a range of peak river level probabilities, the NWS is
 contributing to the area`s Decision Support Services that help
 with long-range flood planning and response readiness. This outlook
 is a part of NOAA/S National Weather Service`s AHPS (Advanced
 Hydrologic Prediction Services).

This outlook was produced using precipitation and temperatures
 for the years 1949 through 2012.


.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...

The AHPS long-range Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks are issued
 each month typically between the first and second Friday after
 mid-month However, spring flood and water resources outlooks are
 issued several times during the critical spring melt period,
 usually on Thursdays beginning in late February or early March and
 ending in early April, depending on the spring flooding conditions.

This outlook is also presented as graphs of the probability of stage
 exceedance for the full period and for weekly intervals during the
 period. These graphs, together with explanations that help in
 interpreting them are available from the NWS Grand Forks AHPS web
 page on the internet at:

        www.weather.gov/grandforks or weather.gov/fgf

 then click on the "Rivers and Lakes" on the tab above the map.

Current river conditions for all river forecast points in the Red
 River of the North and Devils/Stump Lake conditions are also
 available on our web site, as well as the 7-day forecasts when
 the river at the forecast point is in or near flood.

If you have any questions, contact the NWS at 701-772-0720.

A new, point specific flood briefing web page is available at:

   www.crh.noaa.gov/fgf/briefing/floodbriefing.php

Also, 7-day deterministic forecasts will be issued at least once a
 day when the river forecast locations will be at flood during that
 period.

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks will be issued monthly throughout
 the rest of the year during the later part of the month or as
 conditions warrant.

Refer to the separate Devils Lake Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
 for Devils and Stump Lakes probability of exceedance levels and
 low-water non-exceedance levels.

You can follow us on Facebook at: www.facebook.com/NWSGrandForks
 and on Twitter at: @NWSGrandForks.

$$
     weather.gov/fgf
NNNN








000
FGUS73 KFGF 241404
ESFFGF

MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-089-107-111-113-
119-125-135-159-167-NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-
067-071-073-077-081-091-095-097-099-301200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
902 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015


...RED RIVER BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...

         This outlook covers the Red River of the North
         and its Minnesota and North Dakota tributaries.

  Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks now use 64 years (1949-2012)
    of past weather...temperature and precipitation...for the
    ensemble predictive hydrographs used in calculating the
    probabilities of exceeding a river level for the valid period
    of the outlook.

  Outlook Schedule - The National Weather Service in Grand Forks,
    North Dakota will be providing the Advanced Hydrologic
    Prediction Services (AHPS) Long-Range Probabilistic Hydrologic
    Outlooks for the Red River of the North and its Minnesota and
    North Dakota tributaries according to the following schedule:

    - near the end of the month throughout the year, except for...

    - The Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlooks that will be
       issued at least twice a month during the spring snow-melt
        season beginning in mid-to-late February or early-March.

  The following message has three river data sections...

    - The first (Table 1) gives the current and normal/historical
       chances of river locations reaching their Minor...Moderate
        and Major flood category.

    - The second (Table 2) gives the current chances of river
       locations rising above the river stages listed.

    - The third (Table 3) gives the current chances of river
       locations falling below the river stages listed.

.Red River Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook by Flood Category...
                     from  4/27/2015 to 7/26/2015

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
  probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood
  stages are listed for the valid time period.

  - CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
    based on current conditions.

  - HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
    based on historical or normal conditions.

  - When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
    exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS
    is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is
    lower than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding
                Valid Period:   4/27/2015 - 7/26/2015

                                         : Current and Historical
                                         :  Chances of Exceeding
                                         :    Flood Categories
                                         :   as s Percentage (%)
                         Categorical     :
                      Flood Stages (ft)  :  Minor   Moderate  Major
Location            Minor    Mod   Major :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS
--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON            11.0   13.0   15.0 :  26  55    7  24   <5   9
  HICKSON             30.0   34.0   38.0 :   6  16   <5   7   <5  <5
  FARGO               18.0   25.0   30.0 :  40  72    7  24   <5  13
  HALSTAD             26.0   32.0   37.5 :  <5  18   <5  12   <5  <5
  GRAND FORKS         28.0   40.0   46.0 :   7  52   <5  15   <5   6
  OSLO                26.0   30.0   36.0 :  10  56   <5  46   <5  10
  DRAYTON             32.0   38.0   42.0 :  <5  36   <5  24   <5   7
  PEMBINA             39.0   44.0   49.0 :  <5  41   <5  33   <5  16
Minnesota Tributaries.....
  SABIN               13.0   15.0   19.0 :  21  29   <5  <5   <5  <5
  HAWLEY               8.0    9.0   11.0 :   6  23   <5  12   <5  <5
  DILWORTH            13.0   20.0   26.0 :  26  47   <5   9   <5  <5
  TWIN VALLEY         10.0   12.0   14.0 :  <5   6   <5  <5   <5  <5
  HENDRUM             20.0   28.0   32.0 :  10  36   <5  13   <5  <5
  SHELLY              14.0   20.0   23.0 :  <5  12   <5  <5   <5  <5
  CLIMAX              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  <5  10   <5   6   <5  <5
  HIGH LANDING        12.0   12.5   13.0 :  <5  12   <5   9   <5   7
  CROOKSTON           15.0   23.0   25.0 :   9  43   <5  <5   <5  <5
  ABOVE WARREN        67.0   71.0   75.0 :  <5   9   <5  <5   <5  <5
  ALVARADO           106.0  108.0  110.0 :  <5  13   <5   6   <5  <5
  HALLOCK            802.0  806.0  810.0 :  18  38    7  21   <5  <5
  ROSEAU              16.0   18.0   19.0 :  <5  10   <5  <5   <5  <5
North Dakota Tributaries.....
  ABERCROMBIE         10.0   12.0   18.0 :   9  24    6  18   <5  <5
  VALLEY CITY         15.0   16.0   17.0 :  <5   9   <5   9   <5   6
  LISBON              15.0   17.0   19.0 :  <5  10   <5   6   <5  <5
  KINDRED             16.0   19.0   20.5 :  <5  16   <5   9   <5   6
  WEST FARGO DVRSN    18.0   20.0   21.0 :  <5  18   <5  13   <5  10
  HARWOOD            884.0  886.0  891.0 :  <5  16   <5  13   <5   9
  ENDERLIN             9.5   12.0   14.0 :  <5  10   <5  <5   <5  <5
  MAPLETON           905.0  908.0  910.0 :   6  24   <5   7   <5  <5
  HILLSBORO           10.0   13.0   16.0 :  <5   6   <5  <5   <5  <5
  MINTO                6.0    8.0   11.0 :  <5   6   <5  <5   <5  <5
  GRAFTON             12.0   13.5   14.5 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  WALHALLA            11.0   16.0   18.0 :  <5  13   <5  <5   <5  <5
  NECHE               18.0   19.0   20.5 :  <5  24   <5  18   <5  10

LEGEND:
    CS  =  Conditional Simulation (Outlook for current conditions)
    HS  =  Historical  Simulation ( "       "  normal  conditions)
    ft  =  feet                   (above gage zero datum)


.Probabilities for Rising Above Listed River Stages...
                     from  4/27/2015 to 7/26/2015

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
  probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the
    valid time period at the location listed.

  Interpretation Aid...The flood stage for Wahpeton on the Red
   River of the North is 11 feet. There is a 50 percent chance
    that it will rise above 8.9 feet and only a 10 percent chance
     that it will rise above 12.8 feet.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                                 Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                   at Specific Locations
                           Valid Period:   4/27/2015 - 7/26/2015


LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON             4.8    5.0    6.4    8.9   11.2   12.8   14.6
  HICKSON             11.0   11.1   13.1   16.3   21.5   25.3   32.5
  FARGO               14.7   14.9   15.9   17.1   20.0   24.3   30.2
  HALSTAD              5.1    6.2    7.4   10.5   15.7   19.8   24.2
  GRAND FORKS         16.4   16.9   17.4   18.9   21.8   27.1   30.8
  OSLO                 8.0    9.1   10.3   14.2   20.8   26.5   31.0
  DRAYTON             11.6   12.1   13.0   15.3   19.9   23.6   27.7
  PEMBINA             11.0   12.7   15.9   20.9   26.8   32.0   36.0


MINNESOTA TRIBS:      95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
South Fork Buffalo River.....
  SABIN                5.1    5.1    8.9   10.7   12.9   13.8   15.0
Buffalo River.....
  HAWLEY               3.6    3.8    4.1    4.5    5.2    6.8    9.2
  DILWORTH             3.9    4.2    6.9    9.1   13.4   17.1   19.1
Wild Rice River.....
  TWIN VALLEY          1.9    1.9    2.6    3.4    5.2    6.9    7.9
  HENDRUM              2.3    2.7    4.0    8.3   16.2   20.2   22.3
Marsh River.....
  SHELLY               3.8    3.9    4.1    5.4    8.3   10.1   11.0
Sand Hill River.....
  CLIMAX               4.5    4.9    6.2    7.3    9.7   11.6   14.3
Red Lake river.....
  HIGH LANDING         8.3    8.7    9.0    9.3   10.0   10.6   11.1
  CROOKSTON            6.1    6.7    7.7    9.3   12.0   15.1   17.8
Snake River.....
  ABOVE WARREN        60.5   60.5   61.2   62.2   63.0   64.1   64.3
  ALVARADO            95.7   95.7   96.4   97.7   99.7  102.1  102.9
Two Rivers River.....
  HALLOCK            793.8  795.2  796.3  797.6  800.0  805.3  807.5
Roseau River.....
  ROSEAU               5.2    5.2    6.2    7.2    9.7   13.8   15.3


NORTH DAKOTA TRIBS:   95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Wild Rice River.....
  ABERCROMBIE          0.5    0.7    1.2    2.4    5.1    9.7   15.4
Sheyenne River.....
  VALLEY CITY          3.7    3.7    4.7    5.7    7.5    9.4   11.4
  LISBON               2.5    2.5    3.3    4.4    7.0    9.0   11.7
  KINDRED              2.7    2.7    3.5    5.1    8.6   11.7   14.9
  WEST FARGO DVRSN     9.7    9.7   10.1   11.3   13.7   15.2   17.4
  HARWOOD            867.1  867.1  868.7  871.3  876.2  879.3  882.5
Maple River.....
  ENDERLIN             2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    5.2    8.3   10.0
  MAPLETON           894.5  894.5  894.5  895.7  900.3  903.8  907.1
Goose River.....
  HILLSBORO            1.6    1.6    1.6    2.1    3.4    4.8    6.3
Forest River.....
  MINTO                1.3    1.3    1.4    1.8    3.1    4.1    4.7
Park River.....
  GRAFTON              7.1    7.1    7.2    7.8    8.7    9.1   10.0
Pembina River.....
  WALHALLA             2.3    2.3    2.5    3.2    4.5    6.1    7.3
  NECHE                3.5    3.5    3.8    5.0    7.4    9.7   13.6

.Probabilities for Falling Below Listed River Stages...
                     from  4/27/2015 to 7/26/2015

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
  probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for
   the valid time period at the location listed.

  Interpretation Aid...The flood stage for Wahpeton on the Red
   River of the North is 11 feet. There is a 50 percent chance
    that it will fall below 3.4 feet and only a 10 percent chance
     that it will fall below 3.3 feet.

...Table 3--Non-Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Not Exceeding Stages
                                   at Specific Locations
                           Valid Period:   4/27/2015 - 7/26/2015


LOCATION              95%    50%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON             4.0    4.0    3.7    3.4    3.3    3.3    3.3
  HICKSON             10.2   10.1    9.8    9.5    9.5    9.5    9.5
  FARGO               14.4   14.2   13.9   13.7   13.6   13.6   13.6
  HALSTAD              4.0    3.8    3.2    2.5    2.1    1.9    1.8
  GRAND FORKS         15.7   15.5   15.1   14.9   14.7   14.6   14.6
  OSLO                 6.8    6.1    4.5    3.3    2.5    2.0    1.9
  DRAYTON             11.0   10.8   10.6   10.4   10.3   10.2   10.2
  PEMBINA              9.3    8.5    7.3    5.6    5.0    5.0    5.0


MINNESOTA TRIBS:      95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
South Fork Buffalo River.....
  SABIN                5.0    4.9    4.7    4.5    4.1    3.9    3.5
Buffalo River.....
  HAWLEY               3.2    3.2    3.1    3.0    2.9    2.8    2.6
  DILWORTH             3.2    3.2    3.0    2.8    2.6    2.5    2.4
Wild Rice River.....
  TWIN VALLEY          1.7    1.5    0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9
  HENDRUM              1.8    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6
Marsh River.....
  SHELLY               3.8    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7
Sand Hill River.....
  CLIMAX               3.5    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4
Red Lake river.....
  HIGH LANDING         0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5
  CROOKSTON            4.0    3.6    2.9    2.8    2.7    2.6    2.6
Snake River.....
  ABOVE WARREN        60.2   60.2   60.2   60.2   60.2   60.2   60.2
  ALVARADO            95.0   94.8   94.8   94.8   94.8   94.8   94.8
Two Rivers River.....
  HALLOCK            793.4  793.2  793.1  791.3  791.3  791.3  791.3
Roseau River.....
  ROSEAU               5.1    4.8    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4


NORTH DAKOTA TRIBS:   95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Wild Rice River.....
  ABERCROMBIE          0.4    0.2   -0.0   -0.4   -0.4   -0.4   -0.4
Sheyenne River.....
  VALLEY CITY          3.5    3.5    3.5    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4
  LISBON               2.4    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.2    2.2
  KINDRED              2.3    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.1    2.1    2.1
  WEST FARGO DVRSN     9.4    9.3    9.2    9.1    9.1    9.0    9.0
  HARWOOD            866.5  866.2  865.9  865.6  865.3  865.1  865.0
Maple River.....
  ENDERLIN             1.9    1.9    1.9    1.8    1.8    1.8    1.8
  MAPLETON           894.5  894.4  894.3  894.2  894.2  894.2  894.2
Goose River.....
  HILLSBORO            1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6
Forest River.....
  MINTO                1.3    1.3    1.2    1.2    1.1    1.1    1.0
Park River.....
  GRAFTON              7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1
Pembina River.....
  WALHALLA             2.0    1.9    1.5    1.2    1.0    1.0    1.0
  NECHE                3.0    2.7    2.2    1.7    1.6    1.5    1.5



.THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...

This long range probabilistic outlook is based on a series of peak
 river levels or crests taken from the forecast hydrograph results
 of the NWS Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS). The model
 is run for multiple scenarios starting at current river, low and
 soil conditions and using over 60 years of past precipitation and
 temperature conditions that were experienced for those past years
 during the time-frame of the outlook period. These crests can then
 be ranked from lowest to highest, and then be assigned an
 exceedance probability. For example, For a series of 50 years, the
 lowest ranked crest has 49 crests above it and since 95 percent
 of the crests are above it, it is assigned a 95 percent probability
 of exceedance (POE).

 A YouTube video on "How to Interpret River Outlook Products" is at:

         www.youtube.com/watchv?=pSoEgvsnpv4

The probabilities can be used for risk management by using them as
 an indication of the range of crests that may be expected during
 the valid period of the outlook.

By providing a range of peak river level probabilities, the NWS is
 contributing to the area`s Decision Support Services that help
 with long-range flood planning and response readiness. This outlook
 is a part of NOAA/S National Weather Service`s AHPS (Advanced
 Hydrologic Prediction Services).

This outlook was produced using precipitation and temperatures
 for the years 1949 through 2012.


.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...

The AHPS long-range Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks are issued
 each month typically between the first and second Friday after
 mid-month However, spring flood and water resources outlooks are
 issued several times during the critical spring melt period,
 usually on Thursdays beginning in late February or early March and
 ending in early April, depending on the spring flooding conditions.

This outlook is also presented as graphs of the probability of stage
 exceedance for the full period and for weekly intervals during the
 period. These graphs, together with explanations that help in
 interpreting them are available from the NWS Grand Forks AHPS web
 page on the internet at:

        www.weather.gov/grandforks or weather.gov/fgf

 then click on the "Rivers and Lakes" on the tab above the map.

Current river conditions for all river forecast points in the Red
 River of the North and Devils/Stump Lake conditions are also
 available on our web site, as well as the 7-day forecasts when
 the river at the forecast point is in or near flood.

If you have any questions, contact the NWS at 701-772-0720.

A new, point specific flood briefing web page is available at:

   www.crh.noaa.gov/fgf/briefing/floodbriefing.php

Also, 7-day deterministic forecasts will be issued at least once a
 day when the river forecast locations will be at flood during that
 period.

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks will be issued monthly throughout
 the rest of the year during the later part of the month or as
 conditions warrant.

Refer to the separate Devils Lake Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
 for Devils and Stump Lakes probability of exceedance levels and
 low-water non-exceedance levels.

You can follow us on Facebook at: www.facebook.com/NWSGrandForks
 and on Twitter at: @NWSGrandForks.

$$
     weather.gov/fgf








000
FGUS73 KFGF 241404
ESFFGF

MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-089-107-111-113-
119-125-135-159-167-NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-
067-071-073-077-081-091-095-097-099-301200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
902 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015


...RED RIVER BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...

         This outlook covers the Red River of the North
         and its Minnesota and North Dakota tributaries.

  Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks now use 64 years (1949-2012)
    of past weather...temperature and precipitation...for the
    ensemble predictive hydrographs used in calculating the
    probabilities of exceeding a river level for the valid period
    of the outlook.

  Outlook Schedule - The National Weather Service in Grand Forks,
    North Dakota will be providing the Advanced Hydrologic
    Prediction Services (AHPS) Long-Range Probabilistic Hydrologic
    Outlooks for the Red River of the North and its Minnesota and
    North Dakota tributaries according to the following schedule:

    - near the end of the month throughout the year, except for...

    - The Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlooks that will be
       issued at least twice a month during the spring snow-melt
        season beginning in mid-to-late February or early-March.

  The following message has three river data sections...

    - The first (Table 1) gives the current and normal/historical
       chances of river locations reaching their Minor...Moderate
        and Major flood category.

    - The second (Table 2) gives the current chances of river
       locations rising above the river stages listed.

    - The third (Table 3) gives the current chances of river
       locations falling below the river stages listed.

.Red River Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook by Flood Category...
                     from  4/27/2015 to 7/26/2015

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
  probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood
  stages are listed for the valid time period.

  - CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
    based on current conditions.

  - HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
    based on historical or normal conditions.

  - When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
    exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS
    is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is
    lower than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding
                Valid Period:   4/27/2015 - 7/26/2015

                                         : Current and Historical
                                         :  Chances of Exceeding
                                         :    Flood Categories
                                         :   as s Percentage (%)
                         Categorical     :
                      Flood Stages (ft)  :  Minor   Moderate  Major
Location            Minor    Mod   Major :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS
--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON            11.0   13.0   15.0 :  26  55    7  24   <5   9
  HICKSON             30.0   34.0   38.0 :   6  16   <5   7   <5  <5
  FARGO               18.0   25.0   30.0 :  40  72    7  24   <5  13
  HALSTAD             26.0   32.0   37.5 :  <5  18   <5  12   <5  <5
  GRAND FORKS         28.0   40.0   46.0 :   7  52   <5  15   <5   6
  OSLO                26.0   30.0   36.0 :  10  56   <5  46   <5  10
  DRAYTON             32.0   38.0   42.0 :  <5  36   <5  24   <5   7
  PEMBINA             39.0   44.0   49.0 :  <5  41   <5  33   <5  16
Minnesota Tributaries.....
  SABIN               13.0   15.0   19.0 :  21  29   <5  <5   <5  <5
  HAWLEY               8.0    9.0   11.0 :   6  23   <5  12   <5  <5
  DILWORTH            13.0   20.0   26.0 :  26  47   <5   9   <5  <5
  TWIN VALLEY         10.0   12.0   14.0 :  <5   6   <5  <5   <5  <5
  HENDRUM             20.0   28.0   32.0 :  10  36   <5  13   <5  <5
  SHELLY              14.0   20.0   23.0 :  <5  12   <5  <5   <5  <5
  CLIMAX              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  <5  10   <5   6   <5  <5
  HIGH LANDING        12.0   12.5   13.0 :  <5  12   <5   9   <5   7
  CROOKSTON           15.0   23.0   25.0 :   9  43   <5  <5   <5  <5
  ABOVE WARREN        67.0   71.0   75.0 :  <5   9   <5  <5   <5  <5
  ALVARADO           106.0  108.0  110.0 :  <5  13   <5   6   <5  <5
  HALLOCK            802.0  806.0  810.0 :  18  38    7  21   <5  <5
  ROSEAU              16.0   18.0   19.0 :  <5  10   <5  <5   <5  <5
North Dakota Tributaries.....
  ABERCROMBIE         10.0   12.0   18.0 :   9  24    6  18   <5  <5
  VALLEY CITY         15.0   16.0   17.0 :  <5   9   <5   9   <5   6
  LISBON              15.0   17.0   19.0 :  <5  10   <5   6   <5  <5
  KINDRED             16.0   19.0   20.5 :  <5  16   <5   9   <5   6
  WEST FARGO DVRSN    18.0   20.0   21.0 :  <5  18   <5  13   <5  10
  HARWOOD            884.0  886.0  891.0 :  <5  16   <5  13   <5   9
  ENDERLIN             9.5   12.0   14.0 :  <5  10   <5  <5   <5  <5
  MAPLETON           905.0  908.0  910.0 :   6  24   <5   7   <5  <5
  HILLSBORO           10.0   13.0   16.0 :  <5   6   <5  <5   <5  <5
  MINTO                6.0    8.0   11.0 :  <5   6   <5  <5   <5  <5
  GRAFTON             12.0   13.5   14.5 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  WALHALLA            11.0   16.0   18.0 :  <5  13   <5  <5   <5  <5
  NECHE               18.0   19.0   20.5 :  <5  24   <5  18   <5  10

LEGEND:
    CS  =  Conditional Simulation (Outlook for current conditions)
    HS  =  Historical  Simulation ( "       "  normal  conditions)
    ft  =  feet                   (above gage zero datum)


.Probabilities for Rising Above Listed River Stages...
                     from  4/27/2015 to 7/26/2015

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
  probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the
    valid time period at the location listed.

  Interpretation Aid...The flood stage for Wahpeton on the Red
   River of the North is 11 feet. There is a 50 percent chance
    that it will rise above 8.9 feet and only a 10 percent chance
     that it will rise above 12.8 feet.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                                 Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                   at Specific Locations
                           Valid Period:   4/27/2015 - 7/26/2015


LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON             4.8    5.0    6.4    8.9   11.2   12.8   14.6
  HICKSON             11.0   11.1   13.1   16.3   21.5   25.3   32.5
  FARGO               14.7   14.9   15.9   17.1   20.0   24.3   30.2
  HALSTAD              5.1    6.2    7.4   10.5   15.7   19.8   24.2
  GRAND FORKS         16.4   16.9   17.4   18.9   21.8   27.1   30.8
  OSLO                 8.0    9.1   10.3   14.2   20.8   26.5   31.0
  DRAYTON             11.6   12.1   13.0   15.3   19.9   23.6   27.7
  PEMBINA             11.0   12.7   15.9   20.9   26.8   32.0   36.0


MINNESOTA TRIBS:      95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
South Fork Buffalo River.....
  SABIN                5.1    5.1    8.9   10.7   12.9   13.8   15.0
Buffalo River.....
  HAWLEY               3.6    3.8    4.1    4.5    5.2    6.8    9.2
  DILWORTH             3.9    4.2    6.9    9.1   13.4   17.1   19.1
Wild Rice River.....
  TWIN VALLEY          1.9    1.9    2.6    3.4    5.2    6.9    7.9
  HENDRUM              2.3    2.7    4.0    8.3   16.2   20.2   22.3
Marsh River.....
  SHELLY               3.8    3.9    4.1    5.4    8.3   10.1   11.0
Sand Hill River.....
  CLIMAX               4.5    4.9    6.2    7.3    9.7   11.6   14.3
Red Lake river.....
  HIGH LANDING         8.3    8.7    9.0    9.3   10.0   10.6   11.1
  CROOKSTON            6.1    6.7    7.7    9.3   12.0   15.1   17.8
Snake River.....
  ABOVE WARREN        60.5   60.5   61.2   62.2   63.0   64.1   64.3
  ALVARADO            95.7   95.7   96.4   97.7   99.7  102.1  102.9
Two Rivers River.....
  HALLOCK            793.8  795.2  796.3  797.6  800.0  805.3  807.5
Roseau River.....
  ROSEAU               5.2    5.2    6.2    7.2    9.7   13.8   15.3


NORTH DAKOTA TRIBS:   95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Wild Rice River.....
  ABERCROMBIE          0.5    0.7    1.2    2.4    5.1    9.7   15.4
Sheyenne River.....
  VALLEY CITY          3.7    3.7    4.7    5.7    7.5    9.4   11.4
  LISBON               2.5    2.5    3.3    4.4    7.0    9.0   11.7
  KINDRED              2.7    2.7    3.5    5.1    8.6   11.7   14.9
  WEST FARGO DVRSN     9.7    9.7   10.1   11.3   13.7   15.2   17.4
  HARWOOD            867.1  867.1  868.7  871.3  876.2  879.3  882.5
Maple River.....
  ENDERLIN             2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    5.2    8.3   10.0
  MAPLETON           894.5  894.5  894.5  895.7  900.3  903.8  907.1
Goose River.....
  HILLSBORO            1.6    1.6    1.6    2.1    3.4    4.8    6.3
Forest River.....
  MINTO                1.3    1.3    1.4    1.8    3.1    4.1    4.7
Park River.....
  GRAFTON              7.1    7.1    7.2    7.8    8.7    9.1   10.0
Pembina River.....
  WALHALLA             2.3    2.3    2.5    3.2    4.5    6.1    7.3
  NECHE                3.5    3.5    3.8    5.0    7.4    9.7   13.6

.Probabilities for Falling Below Listed River Stages...
                     from  4/27/2015 to 7/26/2015

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
  probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for
   the valid time period at the location listed.

  Interpretation Aid...The flood stage for Wahpeton on the Red
   River of the North is 11 feet. There is a 50 percent chance
    that it will fall below 3.4 feet and only a 10 percent chance
     that it will fall below 3.3 feet.

...Table 3--Non-Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Not Exceeding Stages
                                   at Specific Locations
                           Valid Period:   4/27/2015 - 7/26/2015


LOCATION              95%    50%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON             4.0    4.0    3.7    3.4    3.3    3.3    3.3
  HICKSON             10.2   10.1    9.8    9.5    9.5    9.5    9.5
  FARGO               14.4   14.2   13.9   13.7   13.6   13.6   13.6
  HALSTAD              4.0    3.8    3.2    2.5    2.1    1.9    1.8
  GRAND FORKS         15.7   15.5   15.1   14.9   14.7   14.6   14.6
  OSLO                 6.8    6.1    4.5    3.3    2.5    2.0    1.9
  DRAYTON             11.0   10.8   10.6   10.4   10.3   10.2   10.2
  PEMBINA              9.3    8.5    7.3    5.6    5.0    5.0    5.0


MINNESOTA TRIBS:      95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
South Fork Buffalo River.....
  SABIN                5.0    4.9    4.7    4.5    4.1    3.9    3.5
Buffalo River.....
  HAWLEY               3.2    3.2    3.1    3.0    2.9    2.8    2.6
  DILWORTH             3.2    3.2    3.0    2.8    2.6    2.5    2.4
Wild Rice River.....
  TWIN VALLEY          1.7    1.5    0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9
  HENDRUM              1.8    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6
Marsh River.....
  SHELLY               3.8    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7
Sand Hill River.....
  CLIMAX               3.5    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4
Red Lake river.....
  HIGH LANDING         0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5
  CROOKSTON            4.0    3.6    2.9    2.8    2.7    2.6    2.6
Snake River.....
  ABOVE WARREN        60.2   60.2   60.2   60.2   60.2   60.2   60.2
  ALVARADO            95.0   94.8   94.8   94.8   94.8   94.8   94.8
Two Rivers River.....
  HALLOCK            793.4  793.2  793.1  791.3  791.3  791.3  791.3
Roseau River.....
  ROSEAU               5.1    4.8    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4


NORTH DAKOTA TRIBS:   95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Wild Rice River.....
  ABERCROMBIE          0.4    0.2   -0.0   -0.4   -0.4   -0.4   -0.4
Sheyenne River.....
  VALLEY CITY          3.5    3.5    3.5    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4
  LISBON               2.4    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.2    2.2
  KINDRED              2.3    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.1    2.1    2.1
  WEST FARGO DVRSN     9.4    9.3    9.2    9.1    9.1    9.0    9.0
  HARWOOD            866.5  866.2  865.9  865.6  865.3  865.1  865.0
Maple River.....
  ENDERLIN             1.9    1.9    1.9    1.8    1.8    1.8    1.8
  MAPLETON           894.5  894.4  894.3  894.2  894.2  894.2  894.2
Goose River.....
  HILLSBORO            1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6
Forest River.....
  MINTO                1.3    1.3    1.2    1.2    1.1    1.1    1.0
Park River.....
  GRAFTON              7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1
Pembina River.....
  WALHALLA             2.0    1.9    1.5    1.2    1.0    1.0    1.0
  NECHE                3.0    2.7    2.2    1.7    1.6    1.5    1.5



.THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...

This long range probabilistic outlook is based on a series of peak
 river levels or crests taken from the forecast hydrograph results
 of the NWS Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS). The model
 is run for multiple scenarios starting at current river, low and
 soil conditions and using over 60 years of past precipitation and
 temperature conditions that were experienced for those past years
 during the time-frame of the outlook period. These crests can then
 be ranked from lowest to highest, and then be assigned an
 exceedance probability. For example, For a series of 50 years, the
 lowest ranked crest has 49 crests above it and since 95 percent
 of the crests are above it, it is assigned a 95 percent probability
 of exceedance (POE).

 A YouTube video on "How to Interpret River Outlook Products" is at:

         www.youtube.com/watchv?=pSoEgvsnpv4

The probabilities can be used for risk management by using them as
 an indication of the range of crests that may be expected during
 the valid period of the outlook.

By providing a range of peak river level probabilities, the NWS is
 contributing to the area`s Decision Support Services that help
 with long-range flood planning and response readiness. This outlook
 is a part of NOAA/S National Weather Service`s AHPS (Advanced
 Hydrologic Prediction Services).

This outlook was produced using precipitation and temperatures
 for the years 1949 through 2012.


.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...

The AHPS long-range Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks are issued
 each month typically between the first and second Friday after
 mid-month However, spring flood and water resources outlooks are
 issued several times during the critical spring melt period,
 usually on Thursdays beginning in late February or early March and
 ending in early April, depending on the spring flooding conditions.

This outlook is also presented as graphs of the probability of stage
 exceedance for the full period and for weekly intervals during the
 period. These graphs, together with explanations that help in
 interpreting them are available from the NWS Grand Forks AHPS web
 page on the internet at:

        www.weather.gov/grandforks or weather.gov/fgf

 then click on the "Rivers and Lakes" on the tab above the map.

Current river conditions for all river forecast points in the Red
 River of the North and Devils/Stump Lake conditions are also
 available on our web site, as well as the 7-day forecasts when
 the river at the forecast point is in or near flood.

If you have any questions, contact the NWS at 701-772-0720.

A new, point specific flood briefing web page is available at:

   www.crh.noaa.gov/fgf/briefing/floodbriefing.php

Also, 7-day deterministic forecasts will be issued at least once a
 day when the river forecast locations will be at flood during that
 period.

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks will be issued monthly throughout
 the rest of the year during the later part of the month or as
 conditions warrant.

Refer to the separate Devils Lake Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
 for Devils and Stump Lakes probability of exceedance levels and
 low-water non-exceedance levels.

You can follow us on Facebook at: www.facebook.com/NWSGrandForks
 and on Twitter at: @NWSGrandForks.

$$
     weather.gov/fgf








000
FGUS73 KFGF 241402
ESFFGF

NDC005-027-071-301200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
0856 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL...

                          Devils and Stump Lakes
                    Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook

  The National Weather Service is providing long-range probabilistic
   hydrologic outlooks for Devils and Stump lakes between January
    and September. They will not be provided between October and
     December.

  The AHPS graphics associated with this outlook will be on the web
   no later than 10:30 AM this Friday under the experimental
    long-range flood risk tab at...

             water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=fgf

  Depending on the season, the high or low water probabilities may
   be omitted due to their applicability to the hydrologic situation.
    Refer to the scheduling section farther on in this message.


. Chances of Devils and Stump Lakes rising above given lake levels...

  The probability of exceeding a given lake level is the percentage
   of maximum lake level rises that are above that level for all the
    years that were run through the model using the precipitation
     and temperatures for those years during the valid period of the
      outlook.

  Interpretation Aid...There is a 50 percent chance that Devils
   Lake will rise above 1451.8 feet during the valid period and
    only a 5 percent chance that it will rise above 1452.0 feet.

           Probabilities for exceeding listed lake levels

              FROM APRIL 20, 2015 TO SEPTEMBER 30, 2015

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
DEVILS LAKE.....
  CREEL BAY         1451.6 1451.7 1451.7 1451.8 1451.8 1452.0 1452.0
STUMP LAKE.....
  EAST STUMP LAKE   1451.6 1451.7 1451.7 1451.8 1451.8 1452.0 1452.0


. Current and previous record high lake levels...

 *  The current height of Devils Lake at Creel Bay is 1451.4 feet
 *  The current height of  Stump Lake near Lakota  is 1451.6 feet

 *  The most recent USGS provisional record daily average height
    for Devils Lake at the Creel Bay gage:
                ...1454.30 feet on   June 27 of 2011
 *  Previous records:
                ...1452.05 feet on   June 27 of 2010
                ...1450.93 feet on   June 27 of 2009
                ...1449.20 feet on    May  9 of 2006
                ...1449.18 feet on   June 17 of 2004
                ...1449.17 feet on August  2 of 2005

 * For more high water marks...see the USGS flood tracking charts at:

         HTTP://ND.WATER.USGS.GOV/FLOODTRACKING

. Outlook Schedule...

 - Between January and May, only the high water exceedances will be
    provided with valid periods ending at the end of September.

 - For June and July, both high-water and low-water exceedances
    will be provided.

 - For August and September, only the low-water exceedances will be
    provided with valid periods ending at the end of November.

 - No probability of exceedance/non-exceedance information will be
    given from October through December, since lake freeze-up
     levels will be given in the fall outlooks previously issued.

. Additional Information...

Wind and Wave forecasts for Devils and Stump lakes are available for
a seven day period when the lakes are sufficiently ice-free at:

           www.crh.noaa.gov/fgf/hydro/lake_Fcst.php

Additionally, 7 day lake evaporation forecasts are available
 during the growing season at:

           www.crh.noaa.gov/fgf/climate/farm_info.php

The long-range probabilistic outlook is based on high and low lake
  levels that were calculated for the valid period using multiple
  scenarios of temperature and precipitation from 1949 to 2012 and
  current conditions of the lake, snowcover (in winter), and soil
  moisture.

A YouTube video on "How to Interpret River Outlook Products" is at:

         www.youtube.com/watchv?=pSoEgvsnpv4

By providing the complete range of lake level probabilities, the
  amount of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can
  be determined. These probabilistic outlooks are part of Noah`s
  National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
  Services (AHPS).

This outlook is also presented as probability graphs of lake height
  for the full period as well as weekly probabilities. The outlook
    graphics and explanations that help in interpreting these
      outlooks are available from the NWS Grand Forks AHPS web page
        on the internet at:

             water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?/wfo=fgf

Outlook graphics of the probabilities of exceeding various lake
  levels for Devils and Stump lakes are also on out web site. They
  should be available by 10:30 AM Friday. Monthly probabilistic
  outlooks are usually issued on the Thursday or Friday of the week
  following the first Thursday after the 15Th of the month, usually
  the third or fourth week of the month.

If you have any questions, contact the NWS at 701-772-0720

You can follow us on Facebook at: www.facebook.com/NWSGrandForks
 and on Twitter at: @NWSGrandForks.

$$
      weather.gov/fgf







000
FGUS73 KFGF 241402
ESFFGF

NDC005-027-071-301200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
0856 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL...

                          Devils and Stump Lakes
                    Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook

  The National Weather Service is providing long-range probabilistic
   hydrologic outlooks for Devils and Stump lakes between January
    and September. They will not be provided between October and
     December.

  The AHPS graphics associated with this outlook will be on the web
   no later than 10:30 AM this Friday under the experimental
    long-range flood risk tab at...

             water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=fgf

  Depending on the season, the high or low water probabilities may
   be omitted due to their applicability to the hydrologic situation.
    Refer to the scheduling section farther on in this message.


. Chances of Devils and Stump Lakes rising above given lake levels...

  The probability of exceeding a given lake level is the percentage
   of maximum lake level rises that are above that level for all the
    years that were run through the model using the precipitation
     and temperatures for those years during the valid period of the
      outlook.

  Interpretation Aid...There is a 50 percent chance that Devils
   Lake will rise above 1451.8 feet during the valid period and
    only a 5 percent chance that it will rise above 1452.0 feet.

           Probabilities for exceeding listed lake levels

              FROM APRIL 20, 2015 TO SEPTEMBER 30, 2015

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
DEVILS LAKE.....
  CREEL BAY         1451.6 1451.7 1451.7 1451.8 1451.8 1452.0 1452.0
STUMP LAKE.....
  EAST STUMP LAKE   1451.6 1451.7 1451.7 1451.8 1451.8 1452.0 1452.0


. Current and previous record high lake levels...

 *  The current height of Devils Lake at Creel Bay is 1451.4 feet
 *  The current height of  Stump Lake near Lakota  is 1451.6 feet

 *  The most recent USGS provisional record daily average height
    for Devils Lake at the Creel Bay gage:
                ...1454.30 feet on   June 27 of 2011
 *  Previous records:
                ...1452.05 feet on   June 27 of 2010
                ...1450.93 feet on   June 27 of 2009
                ...1449.20 feet on    May  9 of 2006
                ...1449.18 feet on   June 17 of 2004
                ...1449.17 feet on August  2 of 2005

 * For more high water marks...see the USGS flood tracking charts at:

         HTTP://ND.WATER.USGS.GOV/FLOODTRACKING

. Outlook Schedule...

 - Between January and May, only the high water exceedances will be
    provided with valid periods ending at the end of September.

 - For June and July, both high-water and low-water exceedances
    will be provided.

 - For August and September, only the low-water exceedances will be
    provided with valid periods ending at the end of November.

 - No probability of exceedance/non-exceedance information will be
    given from October through December, since lake freeze-up
     levels will be given in the fall outlooks previously issued.

. Additional Information...

Wind and Wave forecasts for Devils and Stump lakes are available for
a seven day period when the lakes are sufficiently ice-free at:

           www.crh.noaa.gov/fgf/hydro/lake_Fcst.php

Additionally, 7 day lake evaporation forecasts are available
 during the growing season at:

           www.crh.noaa.gov/fgf/climate/farm_info.php

The long-range probabilistic outlook is based on high and low lake
  levels that were calculated for the valid period using multiple
  scenarios of temperature and precipitation from 1949 to 2012 and
  current conditions of the lake, snowcover (in winter), and soil
  moisture.

A YouTube video on "How to Interpret River Outlook Products" is at:

         www.youtube.com/watchv?=pSoEgvsnpv4

By providing the complete range of lake level probabilities, the
  amount of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can
  be determined. These probabilistic outlooks are part of Noah`s
  National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
  Services (AHPS).

This outlook is also presented as probability graphs of lake height
  for the full period as well as weekly probabilities. The outlook
    graphics and explanations that help in interpreting these
      outlooks are available from the NWS Grand Forks AHPS web page
        on the internet at:

             water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?/wfo=fgf

Outlook graphics of the probabilities of exceeding various lake
  levels for Devils and Stump lakes are also on out web site. They
  should be available by 10:30 AM Friday. Monthly probabilistic
  outlooks are usually issued on the Thursday or Friday of the week
  following the first Thursday after the 15Th of the month, usually
  the third or fourth week of the month.

If you have any questions, contact the NWS at 701-772-0720

You can follow us on Facebook at: www.facebook.com/NWSGrandForks
 and on Twitter at: @NWSGrandForks.

$$
      weather.gov/fgf
NNNN






000
FGUS73 KFGF 241402
ESFFGF

NDC005-027-071-301200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
0856 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL...

                          Devils and Stump Lakes
                    Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook

  The National Weather Service is providing long-range probabilistic
   hydrologic outlooks for Devils and Stump lakes between January
    and September. They will not be provided between October and
     December.

  The AHPS graphics associated with this outlook will be on the web
   no later than 10:30 AM this Friday under the experimental
    long-range flood risk tab at...

             water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=fgf

  Depending on the season, the high or low water probabilities may
   be omitted due to their applicability to the hydrologic situation.
    Refer to the scheduling section farther on in this message.


. Chances of Devils and Stump Lakes rising above given lake levels...

  The probability of exceeding a given lake level is the percentage
   of maximum lake level rises that are above that level for all the
    years that were run through the model using the precipitation
     and temperatures for those years during the valid period of the
      outlook.

  Interpretation Aid...There is a 50 percent chance that Devils
   Lake will rise above 1451.8 feet during the valid period and
    only a 5 percent chance that it will rise above 1452.0 feet.

           Probabilities for exceeding listed lake levels

              FROM APRIL 20, 2015 TO SEPTEMBER 30, 2015

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
DEVILS LAKE.....
  CREEL BAY         1451.6 1451.7 1451.7 1451.8 1451.8 1452.0 1452.0
STUMP LAKE.....
  EAST STUMP LAKE   1451.6 1451.7 1451.7 1451.8 1451.8 1452.0 1452.0


. Current and previous record high lake levels...

 *  The current height of Devils Lake at Creel Bay is 1451.4 feet
 *  The current height of  Stump Lake near Lakota  is 1451.6 feet

 *  The most recent USGS provisional record daily average height
    for Devils Lake at the Creel Bay gage:
                ...1454.30 feet on   June 27 of 2011
 *  Previous records:
                ...1452.05 feet on   June 27 of 2010
                ...1450.93 feet on   June 27 of 2009
                ...1449.20 feet on    May  9 of 2006
                ...1449.18 feet on   June 17 of 2004
                ...1449.17 feet on August  2 of 2005

 * For more high water marks...see the USGS flood tracking charts at:

         HTTP://ND.WATER.USGS.GOV/FLOODTRACKING

. Outlook Schedule...

 - Between January and May, only the high water exceedances will be
    provided with valid periods ending at the end of September.

 - For June and July, both high-water and low-water exceedances
    will be provided.

 - For August and September, only the low-water exceedances will be
    provided with valid periods ending at the end of November.

 - No probability of exceedance/non-exceedance information will be
    given from October through December, since lake freeze-up
     levels will be given in the fall outlooks previously issued.

. Additional Information...

Wind and Wave forecasts for Devils and Stump lakes are available for
a seven day period when the lakes are sufficiently ice-free at:

           www.crh.noaa.gov/fgf/hydro/lake_Fcst.php

Additionally, 7 day lake evaporation forecasts are available
 during the growing season at:

           www.crh.noaa.gov/fgf/climate/farm_info.php

The long-range probabilistic outlook is based on high and low lake
  levels that were calculated for the valid period using multiple
  scenarios of temperature and precipitation from 1949 to 2012 and
  current conditions of the lake, snowcover (in winter), and soil
  moisture.

A YouTube video on "How to Interpret River Outlook Products" is at:

         www.youtube.com/watchv?=pSoEgvsnpv4

By providing the complete range of lake level probabilities, the
  amount of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can
  be determined. These probabilistic outlooks are part of Noah`s
  National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
  Services (AHPS).

This outlook is also presented as probability graphs of lake height
  for the full period as well as weekly probabilities. The outlook
    graphics and explanations that help in interpreting these
      outlooks are available from the NWS Grand Forks AHPS web page
        on the internet at:

             water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?/wfo=fgf

Outlook graphics of the probabilities of exceeding various lake
  levels for Devils and Stump lakes are also on out web site. They
  should be available by 10:30 AM Friday. Monthly probabilistic
  outlooks are usually issued on the Thursday or Friday of the week
  following the first Thursday after the 15Th of the month, usually
  the third or fourth week of the month.

If you have any questions, contact the NWS at 701-772-0720

You can follow us on Facebook at: www.facebook.com/NWSGrandForks
 and on Twitter at: @NWSGrandForks.

$$
      weather.gov/fgf
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