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000
FGUS74 KFWD 171806
ESFFWD


TXC001-027-035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-133-139-143-145-147-161-
181-193-213-217-221-223-231-237-251-257-277-281-289-293-309-331-333-
337-349-363-367-379-395-397-425-429-439-467-497-503-180606-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
106 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE BRAZOS RIVER BASIN IN NORTH TEXAS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN FORT WORTH TEXAS HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR THE
BRAZOS RIVER BASIN IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS.  EXAMPLE:  THE BRAZOS RIVER NEAR SOUTH BEND HAS A
FLOOD STAGE OF 21 FEET.  THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE SOUTH
BEND FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 10.1 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
            VALID 4/16/2014 - 7/16/2014

LOCATION     FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------     ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
BIG SANDY CREEK
 BRECKENRIDGE  24.0  0.9  0.9  0.9  1.4  2.3  2.7  3.3  9.0 17.6
UPPER BRAZOS RIVER
 SOUTH BEND    21.0  5.6  7.2  8.9  9.4 10.1 10.9 12.4 15.5 18.6
 PALO PINTO    18.0  1.9  1.9  2.0  2.2  2.5  2.5  2.8  3.1  5.2
 DENNIS        25.0  1.6  1.9  2.1  2.4  2.7  3.0  3.3  4.7  7.3
 GLEN ROSE     29.0  4.7  4.8  4.8  4.8  4.9  4.9  5.4  5.7  7.7
 AQUILLA       29.0  5.5  5.5  5.5  5.5  5.5  5.5  5.5  5.5  7.5
PALUXY RIVER
 GLEN ROSE     22.0  2.6  2.7  3.0  3.3  3.7  4.1  4.6  5.4  7.0
NOLAN RIVER
 BLUM          24.0  1.5  1.6  1.7  1.8  2.0  2.8  3.3  3.7  4.5
LOWER BRAZOS RIVER
 WACO          27.0  1.2  1.3  1.6  1.8  2.4  3.7  4.5  5.1  6.9
 HIGHBANK      35.0  1.5  2.0  2.2  2.6  3.0  3.9  4.4  5.0  7.2
NORTH BOSQUE RIVER
 HICO          24.0  5.6  5.8  6.3  7.1  7.9  8.4  9.1 10.8 11.7
 CLIFTON       23.0  1.6  2.0  2.3  2.7  3.0  4.0  4.3  5.2  6.5
 VALLEY MILLS  36.0  5.1  5.4  5.7  6.3  6.7  7.1  8.2  9.2 11.2
HOG CREEK
 CRAWFORD      14.0  1.9  2.3  2.6  2.7  2.9  3.1  3.2  3.6  4.7
MIDDLE BOSQUE RIVER
 MCGREGOR      20.0  3.1  3.3  3.3  3.6  3.7  3.8  3.9  4.0  4.8
SABANA RIVER
 DELEON        19.0  3.1  4.1  5.1  5.9  7.1  8.2 13.4 17.4 19.5
LEON RIVER
 DELEON        12.0  1.9  2.1  2.2  2.5  2.8  3.1  3.5  4.6  6.7
 HAMILTON      26.0  5.1  5.8  6.2  6.5  6.8  7.1  7.8  8.9 15.1
 GATESVILLE    22.0  2.9  3.2  3.3  3.5  3.6  4.0  4.2  5.4  8.7
 BELTON        14.0  3.8  3.8  3.8  3.8  3.8  3.8  3.8  3.8  3.8
COWHOUSE CREEK
 PIDCOKE       20.0  3.4  4.1  4.7  5.1  5.5  6.1  6.6  6.8  8.0
LAMPASAS RIVER
 KEMPNER       18.0  2.1  2.4  2.5  2.9  3.3  3.6  3.9  4.4  5.8
LITTLE RIVER
 LITTLE RIVER  30.0  1.4  1.4  1.5  1.9  2.2  2.8  3.4  4.4  5.7
 ROCKDALE      30.0  5.0  5.6  7.0  7.7  9.4 10.9 13.0 15.2 18.2
 CAMERON       30.0  1.5  2.3  3.8  4.4  5.9  7.3  8.7 11.9 15.0
NAVASOTA RIVER
 GROESBECK      7.0  1.9  1.9  2.0  2.2  2.4  2.8  3.1  3.4  4.5
 EASTERLY      19.0  3.9  4.0  5.5  6.3  8.5  9.8 12.0 16.6 21.1

LOCATION        90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%
--------        ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
LK GRAHAM      1063.7 1063.7 1063.8 1064.0 1064.2 1064.6 1064.9
                20%    10%
                ---    ---
               1065.5 1067.9

HUBBARD CR LK  1158.6 1158.6 1158.6 1158.7 1158.9 1159.3 1159.7
               1160.5 1162.6

LOCATION         90%   80%   70%   60%   50%   40%   30%   20%   10%
--------         ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---
LK PALO PINTO   854.8 854.8 854.9 855.0 855.3 855.5 855.8 856.4 859.5
LK PAT CLEBURNE 726.2 726.2 726.3 726.4 726.4 726.7 727.2 729.3 731.4

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:  HTTP://AHPS.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=FWD
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.

$$






000
FGUS74 KFWD 171512
ESFFWD


TXC001-027-035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-133-139-143-145-147-161-
181-193-213-217-221-223-231-237-251-257-277-281-289-293-309-331-333-
337-349-363-367-379-395-397-425-429-439-467-497-503-180312-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1012 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE TRINITY RIVER BASIN IN NORTH TEXAS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN FORT WORTH TEXAS HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR THE
TRINITY RIVER BASIN IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS.  EXAMPLE:  THE WEST FORK OF THE TRINITY RIVER NEAR
JACKSBORO HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 20 FEET.  THERE IS A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE THE JACKSBORO FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 5.6 FEET
DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
            VALID 4/16/2014 - 7/16/2014

LOCATION     FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------     ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
WEST FORK TRINITY RIVER
 JACKSBORO     20.0  4.5  4.5  4.7  5.4  5.6  7.3  8.7  9.7 15.5
 BOYD          16.0  5.3  6.9  8.1 10.1 11.8 12.4 13.5 17.1 17.6
 FORT WORTH    20.0  1.6  1.7  2.0  2.1  2.3  2.5  2.8  3.2  3.9
 GRAND PRAIRIE 30.0  6.1  7.5  8.5  8.9  9.5 10.4 11.2 12.9 17.5
BIG SANDY CREEK
 BRIDGEPORT    12.0  1.5  2.3  3.0  3.3  4.1  4.9  5.5  6.7  8.9
CLEAR FORK TRINITY RIVER
 WEATHERFORD   15.0  8.1  8.1  8.1  8.1  8.1  8.1  8.1  8.1  8.1
 FORT WORTH    15.0  9.3  9.4  9.5  9.5  9.6  9.8  9.9 10.1 11.0
DENTON CREEK
 JUSTIN        10.0  3.3  3.6  3.9  4.1  4.6  4.9  6.2  7.2 11.0
ELM FORK TRINITY RIVER
 GAINESVILLE   22.0  4.2  4.8  5.2  5.4  5.7  6.0  7.0  7.4  9.9
 CARROLLTON     8.0  4.3  4.5  4.6  4.7  4.9  5.0  5.2  5.3  6.0
CLEAR CREEK
 SANGER        25.0  5.9  6.7  6.9  7.2  7.4  7.5  8.0  8.8 10.4
SISTER GROVE CREEK
 BLUE RIDGE    24.0 11.1 11.7 12.0 12.6 13.2 13.8 14.2 15.1 17.5
EAST FORK TRINITY RIVER
 MCKINNEY      16.0  4.8  5.1  5.3  5.6  7.1  9.3 10.2 11.2 18.3
 CRANDALL      18.0  2.3  2.5  2.5  2.7  2.8  3.1  3.2  3.6  4.8
CHAMBERS CREEK
 RICE          24.0  5.6  7.8  9.0 10.1 11.2 13.5 18.3 23.4 27.5
TRINITY RIVER
 DALLAS        30.0 22.2 23.3 24.4 24.6 26.9 28.1 29.1 30.4 32.9
 ROSSER        31.0  8.3  9.5 10.4 11.3 12.4 13.6 14.6 17.2 22.2
 TRINIDAD      33.0 13.1 14.7 15.9 16.6 17.8 19.7 21.9 25.4 32.1
 LONG LAKE     35.0 10.1 11.3 12.3 13.5 14.3 16.1 18.6 24.3 26.9

LOCATION FS(FT) 90%   80%   70%   60%   50%   40%   30%   20%   10%
-------- ------ ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---
LK WORTH 597.0 591.4 591.5 591.7 591.8 592.1 592.2 592.5 592.7 594.0
LK ARLINGTON   547.2 548.5 549.1 549.5 550.1 550.3 550.5 550.9 551.4

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:  HTTP://AHPS.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=FWD
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.

$$






000
FGUS74 KFWD 171437
ESFFWD


TXC001-027-035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-133-139-143-145-147-161-
181-193-213-217-221-223-231-237-251-257-277-281-289-293-309-331-333-
337-349-363-367-379-395-397-425-429-439-467-497-503-180237-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
937 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE SABINE RIVER BASIN IN NORTH TEXAS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN FORT WORTH TEXAS HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR THE
SABINE RIVER BASIN IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS.  EXAMPLE:  THE SOUTH FORK OF THE SABINE RIVER NEAR
QUINLAN HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 15 FEET.  THERE IS A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE THE QUINLAN FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE
12.1 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
            VALID [4/16/2014 - 7/16/2014]

LOCATION     FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------     ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
SOUTH FORK SABINE RIVER
 QUINLAN       15.0  5.0  6.3  8.5 11.4 12.1 13.8 15.2 16.1 16.7
COWLEECH FORK SABINE RIVER
 GREENVILLE    14.0  4.2  5.3  7.0 14.1 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.2

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:  HTTP://AHPS.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=FWD
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.

$$






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    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
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