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000
FGUS74 KHGX 191656
ESFHGX
200456-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
1056 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE TRINITY RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR THE
TRINITY RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE TRINITY RIVER AT LIBERTY HAS A FLOOD
STAGE OF 26 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE LIBERTY
FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 18.8 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

         CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                 VALID [ 12/17/2014 - 3/18/2015 ]


LOCATION        FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
------------------------------------------------------------------
TRINITY RIVER
 CROCKETT        41.0  10.0 11.8 12.9 14.2 15.7 17.8 19.5 20.3 30.9
BEDIAS CREEK
 MADISONVILLE    19.0   6.1 11.7 13.3 14.1 14.6 15.2 16.2 16.8 19.9
TRINITY RIVER
 RIVERSIDE      134.0 131.9 131.9 132.0 132.1 132.2 132.3 132.6 133.0 133.9
LONG KING CREEK
 LIVINGSTON      19.0   3.7  4.9  7.0  8.0  9.3 11.2 12.5 14.2 18.5
LOWER TRINITY RIVER
 GOODRICH        36.0  11.7 12.7 14.2 16.5 17.1 19.6 21.7 22.8 25.5
RYE CREEK
 RYE             20.0   8.5 10.2 11.6 12.7 14.3 16.0 18.1 20.1 21.8
TRINITY RIVER
 ROMAYOR         40.0  15.5 16.7 18.4 19.9 20.5 22.3 24.1 25.2 27.5
 LIBERTY         26.0  11.3 13.2 15.8 17.9 18.8 21.0 23.0 23.8 26.1
 MOSS BLUFF      15.0   6.5  7.2  9.6 10.8 11.6 12.7 13.6 14.1 15.4


THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT: WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI!HGX
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.

$$






000
FGUS74 KHGX 191638
ESFHGX
200438-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
1038 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE SAN JACINTO RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR THE
SAN JACINTO RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE SAN JACINTO RIVER NEAR CONROE HAS A FLOOD
STAGE OF 115.8 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE CONROE
FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 102.7 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                    VALID [ 12/17/2014 - 3/18/2015 ]


LOCATION    FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
------------------------------------------------------------------
EAST FORK SAN JACINTO RIVER
 CEVELAND    19.0   5.2  7.7  9.4 10.6 11.5 12.4 14.2 14.5 16.4
 NEW CANEY   21.0   3.7  6.2  7.9  9.4 10.4 11.5 14.7 15.5 19.2
CANEY CREEK
 SPLENDORA   13.0   3.9  5.3  7.0  8.0  9.0  9.6 11.5 12.4 17.1
PEACH CREEK
 SPLENDORA   18.0  6.2  7.2  8.1  8.7  9.6 10.0 11.1 11.9 15.7
WEST FORK SAN JACINTO RIVER
 CONROE     115.8  94.9 98.0 99.5 101.5 102.7 104.8 107.8 108.9 113.0
 PORTER      24.0  11.4 14.4 16.8 19.3 20.7 22.3 25.0 25.8 29.1
 HUMBLE      49.3  44.2 44.7 45.2 45.6 45.9 46.3 47.7 48.0 50.7
SPRING CREEK
 SPRING      21.0  75.0 76.3 77.2 78.3 78.8 80.2 82.8 84.0 90.0
CYPRESS CREEK
 WESTFIELD   82.9  66.7 68.0 69.7 72.8 73.3 75.5 77.8 80.0 84.8
SAN JACINTO RIVER BELOW LAKE HOUSTON
 SHELDON     10.0   1.2  2.0  2.9  3.6  4.0  4.4  6.1  6.6 10.0


THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT: WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI!HGX
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.

$$






000
FGUS74 KHGX 191631
ESFHGX
200431-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
1031 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE SAN BERNARD RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR THE
SAN BERNARD RRIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE SAN BERNARD RIVER NEAR BOLING HAS A FLOOD
STAGE OF 18 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE BOLING
FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 12.0 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

       CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                  VALID [ 12/17/2014 - 3/18/2015 ]


LOCATION      FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
 EAST BERNARD  17.0 10.8 12.8  14.2 14.8 15.4 16.1 16.5 17.2 17.5
 BOLING        18.0  4.9  7.5   8.7  9.6 12.0 13.2 14.2 17.0 19.3
 SWEENY        16.0 11.1 11.2  11.3 11.3 11.4 11.6 12.3 13.3 15.5


THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT: WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI!HGX
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.

$$






000
FGUS74 KHGX 191628
ESFHGX
200428-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
1028 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE LAVACA-NAVIDAD RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR THE
LAVACA-NAVIDAD RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE NAVIDAD RIVER AT STRANE PARK HAS A
FLOOD STAGE OF 24 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE STRANE PARK
FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 12.0 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

       CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                  VALID [ 12/17/2014 - 3/18/2015 ]


LOCATION          FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------------------------------------------------------------------
TRES PALACIOS RIVER

SANDY CREEK
 CORDELE           18.0   6.0  7.1  8.3  8.9  9.6 10.1 10.5 11.5 12.8
EAST MUSTANG CREEK
 LOUISE            19.0   8.2  9.5 10.6 11.4 12.0 13.4 14.9 15.5 16.7
WEST MUSTANG CREEK
 GANADO            20.0   9.3  9.9 11.0 11.2 11.8 12.6 12.8 13.6 14.5
NAVIDAD RIVER
 SUBLIME           24.0   7.2 10.1 11.3 12.7 15.0 16.1 17.2 18.9 20.8
 SPEAKS            24.0   5.2  6.6  7.1  9.2 10.4 12.0 13.3 15.0 18.8
 MORALES           29.0   8.6 10.2 11.1 12.7 14.1 15.2 17.8 19.5 24.7
 STRANE PARK       24.0   7.2  9.3 10.0 11.2 12.0 13.1 15.3 16.6 20.7
LAVACA RIVER
 HALLETTESVILLE    27.0   4.4  5.1  5.9  6.2  6.8  7.6  8.0  8.7 10.2
 EDNA              21.0   7.2  8.4  9.9 11.3 12.3 13.2 13.6 15.4 19.7


THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT: WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI!HGX
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.

$$






000
FGUS74 KHGX 191618
ESFHGX
200418-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
1018 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR HARRIS COUNTY WATERSHEDS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR HARRIS
COUNTY WATERSHEDS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS
ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: GREENS BAYOU AT U.S.HWY 59 IN HOUSTON HAS A FLOOD
STAGE OF 55 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE U.S. HWY 59 FORECAST
POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 46.0 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

            CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                      VALID [ 12/17/2014 - 3/18/2015 ]


LOCATION       FS(FT)   90%   80%  70%   60%   50%   40%   30%   20%   10%
------------------------------------------------------------------
SPRING CREEK
 TOMBALL       165.2  139.1 143.0 144.5 145.4 146.2 146.4 147.5 148.1 149.7
CYPRESS CREEK
 KATY-HOCKLEY  157.3  147.6 149.7 150.7 151.5 152.4 153.4 156.3 156.9 158.9
 GRANT ROAD     36.7  103.5 106.0 107.4 109.4 110.7 112.5 115.8 116.8 121.2
GREENS BAYOU
 KNOBCREST ST   84.8   68.0  69.1  69.5  70.1  70.7  71.3  71.6  72.3  74.2
 U.S. HWY 59    55.0   42.0  43.1  44.6  45.4  46.0  46.6  47.2  48.4  50.5
 LEY ROAD       30.0    8.1  10.3  12.5  15.4  16.4  18.3  21.0  26.2  29.8
WHITE OAK BAYOU
 HEIGHTS BLVD   32.0    8.0   9.3  10.4  11.2  12.0  13.2  14.3  17.6  20.0
BRAYS BAYOU
 MAIN STREET    56.0   16.6  17.6  18.6  19.2  20.0  21.2  22.2  24.4  26.7
BUFFALO BAYOU
 WEST BELT      71.0    5.2  38.2  40.5  41.0  42.1  42.6  43.6  44.0  45.5
 PINEY POINT    52.0   29.7  30.5  32.0  32.9  33.8  34.8  35.6  36.4  37.3
 SHEPHERD DR    28.0    3.6   4.1   4.9   5.6   7.3   9.0  10.7  12.0  13.5


THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT: WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI!HGX
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.

$$






000
FGUS74 KHGX 191600
ESFHGX
200400-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
1000 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR THE
COLORADO RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS. THIS
SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE COLORADO RIVER AT WHARTON HAS A FLOOD
STAGE OF 39 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE WHARTON FORECAST
POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 15.5 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.


          CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                 VALID [ 12/17/2014 - 3/18/2015 ]


LOCATION      FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
------------------------------------------------------------------
COLORADO RIVER
 COLUMBUS      17.0  11.6 12.1 12.5 13.5 14.6 15.8 17.7 20.3 26.0
 WHARTON       18.0  11.4 11.7 12.3 13.8 15.5 16.5 17.8 20.4 27.1
 BAY CITY      16.0   5.5  6.1  7.8 10.5 11.1 12.2 13.9 16.4 21.0


THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT: WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI!HGX
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.

$$






000
FGUS74 KHGX 191557
ESFHGX
200357-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
957 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS)
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE BRAZOS RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

LITERAL:THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR THE
BRAZOS RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS.
THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE BRAZOS RIVER AT RICHMOND HAS A FLOOD
STAGE OF 24 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE RICHMOND
FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 24.2 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

          CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                 VALID [ 12/17/2014 - 3/18/2015 ]


LOCATION          FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------------------------------------------------------------------
BRAZOS RIVER
 BRYAN             43.0   9.1 11.9 13.4 14.9 15.9 18.3 21.1 28.1 33.4
EAST YEGUA CREEK
 DIME BOX          12.0   2.9  3.2  6.0  7.2  7.8  8.3  8.9  9.2 10.3
MIDDLE YEGUA CREEK
 DIME BOX          10.0   1.9  2.0  5.0  6.8  8.0  8.7  9.2  9.5 11.3
DAVIDSON CREEK
 LYONS             16.0   4.4  8.0  9.5 11.2 13.2 14.8 15.1 15.3 16.2
NAVASOTA RIVER
 NORMANGEE         15.0   5.1  6.8  9.6 12.5 13.2 13.8 14.3 15.0 16.0
LOWER BRAZOS RIVER
 HEMPSTEAD         50.0  12.9  9.3 24.6 27.5 29.7 33.0 35.4 41.9 46.4
 RICHMOND          27.0  11.0 16.1 19.8 22.6 24.2 27.4 31.9 42.5 50.6
 ROSHARON          21.0   6.8 13.7 19.2 21.9 23.8 29.6 34.6 46.7 49.7
 WEST COLUMBIA     29.0   6.8  9.7 12.6 14.1 15.3 17.2 18.9 26.6 29.2


THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT: WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI!HGX
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.

$$






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