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000
FGUS74 KHGX 171805
ESFHGX
180605-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
105 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE BRAZOS RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...


THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR THE
BRAZOS RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS.
THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS.  EXAMPLE: THE BRAZOS RIVER AT RICHMOND HAS A FLOOD
STAGE OF 24 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE RICHMOND
FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 14.5 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.


        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                  VALID [ 4/16/2014 - 7/16/2014 ]


LOCATION     FS(FT)    90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------------------------------------------------------------------
BRAZOS RIVER
 BRYAN          43.0   8.0  8.1  9.2 11.0 12.1 12.8 14.9 16.6 21.9

EAST YEGUA CREEK
 DIME BOX       12.0   2.6  3.4  4.6  5.8  7.5  8.9  9.7 10.1 11.0

MIDDLE YEGUA CREEK
 DIME BOX       10.0   1.9  3.1  3.9  5.9  7.3  9.0  9.6 10.1 11.8

DAVIDSON CREEK
 LYONS          16.0   2.6  3.0  3.8  4.3  5.0  7.5  9.8 11.6 14.7

NAVASOTA RIVER
 NORMANGEE      15.0   1.8  2.8  4.0  5.4  6.4  8.6 11.4 14.4 15.3

LOWER BRAZOS RIVER
 HEMPSTEAD      50.0  10.3  9.2 12.0 15.8 17.4 20.1 23.0 26.5 34.7
 RICHMOND       27.0   9.4 10.2 10.8 13.6 14.5 17.5 20.7 24.2 31.3
 ROSHARON       21.0   4.5  5.5  6.3  9.6 10.9 15.4 19.2 24.4 34.5
 WEST COLUMBIA  29.0   6.5  6.6  6.7  7.6  8.1 10.4 12.1 15.0 18.9


THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:   WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI?HGX
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH

$$






000
FGUS74 KHGX 171657
ESFHGX
180457-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
1157 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE LAVACA-NAVIDAD RIVER BASIN IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...


THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR THE
LAVACA-NAVIDAD RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS.  EXAMPLE: THE NAVIDAD RIVER AT STRANE PARK HAS A
FLOOD STAGE OF 24 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE STRANE PARK
FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 11.9 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.


        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                  VALID [ 4/16/2014 - 7/16/2014 ]


LOCATION     FS(FT)    90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------------------------------------------------------------------
TRES PALACIOS RIVER
 MIDFIELD       24.0   9.0 10.9 12.6 14.4 16.7 18.5 19.9 23.0 25.3

SANDY CREEK
 CORDELE        18.0   6.6  7.8  8.4  9.1  9.9 10.3 10.7 12.8 16.9

EAST MUSTANG CREEK
 LOUISE         19.0   6.8  7.9  9.1  9.8 10.7 11.7 12.5 13.7 17.1

WEST MUSTANG CREEK
 GANADO         20.0   8.5  9.7 10.4 10.8 11.4 11.6 12.3 13.1 15.3

NAVIDAD RIVER
 SUBLIME        24.0   7.3  8.3  9.7 11.4 11.8 12.9 14.8 16.3 19.3
 SPEAKS         24.0   5.5  6.7  7.3  8.2  9.4 10.0 11.6 13.7 17.3
 MORALES        29.0   9.2 10.6 11.3 12.7 13.3 14.4 15.8 18.2 24.9
 STRANE PARK    24.0   8.0  9.2 10.2 11.1 11.9 12.6 14.0 15.9 22.1

LAVACA RIVER
 HALLETTESVILLE 27.0   5.1  5.8  6.3  7.3  7.7  8.0  9.0 10.1 11.3
 EDNA           21.0   8.8 10.0 11.3 12.9 14.0 14.9 15.9 17.8 21.1


THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:   WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI?HGX
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD

$$






000
FGUS74 KHGX 171653
ESFHGX
180453-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
1153 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE SAN BERNARD RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...


THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR THE
SAN BERNARD RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT
90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE SAN BERNARD RIVER NEAR BOLING HAS A FLOOD STAGE
OF 18 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE BOLING FORECAST POINT
WILL RISE ABOVE 9.4 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.


             CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                       VALID [ 4/16/2014 - 7/16/2014 ]


LOCATION     FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
 EAST BERNARD 17.0  10.6 11.6 12.4 13.6 15.0 16.1 17.1 17.9 19.3
 BOLING       18.0   5.1  5.8  6.9  7.6  9.4 12.3 15.8 20.1 25.2
 SWEENY       16.0  10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 11.2 11.4 12.8 15.7


THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:   WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI?HGX
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.

$$






000
FGUS74 KHGX 171517
ESFHGX
180317-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
1017 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...


THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR THE
COLORADO RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS. THIS
SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS.  EXAMPLE:  THE COLORADO RIVER AT WHARTON HAS A FLOOD
STAGE OF 39 FEET.  THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE WHARTON FORECAST
POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 19.8 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.


        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                  VALID [ 4/16/2014 - 7/16/2014 ]


LOCATION     FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
------------------------------------------------------------------
COLORADO RIVER
 COLUMBUS     17.0  13.2 14.6 16.9 18.9 20.1 22.2 24.0 27.1 34.7
 WHARTON      18.0  13.1 16.1 17.1 18.8 19.8 22.6 24.0 27.6 37.3
 BAY CITY     16.0   7.7 10.8 12.8 13.8 15.7 17.6 19.5 22.9 30.6


THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:   WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI?HGX
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.

$$






000
FGUS74 KHGX 171514
ESFHGX
180314-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
1014 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR HARRIS COUNTY BASINS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...


THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS IMPLEMENTED
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR HARRIS COUNTY
WATERSHEDS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS.  THIS SERVICE
IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.


IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS.  EXAMPLE:  GREENS BAYOU AT U.S.HWY 59 IN HOUSTON HAS A FLOOD
STAGE OF 55 FEET.  THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE U.S. HWY 59 FORECAST
POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 48.4 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.


        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                  VALID [ 4/16/2014 - 7/16/2014 ]


LOCATION     FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
------------------------------------------------------------------
SPRING CREEK
 TOMBALL     165.2  142.4 144.5 145.2 145.8 146.5 147.4 148.5 150.7 151.3

CYPRESS CREEK
 KATY-HOCKLEY 157.3  150.3 151.7 152.7 153.5 154.7 156.2 157.8 159.3 160.0
 GRANT ROAD    36.7  106.2 107.7 109.7 110.9 111.9 115.1 120.3 122.1 123.2

GREENS BAYOU
 KNOBCREST ST  84.8  68.9 70.0 70.8 71.5 72.0 72.5 72.9 74.8 76.0
 U.S. HWY 59   55.0  44.0 45.0 45.8 47.4 48.4 48.7 50.2 51.4 53.6
 LEY ROAD      30.0  13.6 16.5 17.9 20.1 22.4 25.2 27.8 32.9 35.0

WHITE OAK BAYOU
 HEIGHTS BLVD  32.0   8.7 10.0 10.4 11.2 12.8 13.5 15.1 16.5 21.3

BRAYS BAYOU
 MAIN STREET   56.0  17.3 18.2 18.8 20.4 21.5 22.4 23.6 24.9 30.8

BUFFALO BAYOU
 WEST BELT     71.0   6.8 38.9 40.5 41.9 42.4 42.8 44.7 46.4 49.0
 PINEY POINT   52.0  30.5 31.2 32.7 33.7 34.9 35.7 37.1 38.6 41.7
 SHEPHERD DR   28.0   4.6  5.0  5.5  7.9 10.5 11.9 13.9 17.2 24.3


THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:   WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI?HGX
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.

$$






000
FGUS74 KHGX 171511
ESFHGX
180311-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
1011 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE TRINITY RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...


THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR THE
TRINITY RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.


IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS.  EXAMPLE:  THE TRINITY RIVER AT LIBERTY HAS A FLOOD
STAGE OF 26 FEET.  THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE LIBERTY
FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 12.7 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.


        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                  VALID [ 4/16/2014 - 7/16/2014 ]


LOCATION     FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
------------------------------------------------------------------
TRINITY RIVER
 CROCKETT      41.0   9.9 10.5 11.3 11.8 12.6 14.2 15.5 19.4 24.7

BEDIAS CREEK
 MADISONVILLE  19.0   3.0  6.8  8.4 10.0 10.4 11.0 12.8 14.5 16.2

TRINITY RIVER
 RIVERSIDE    134.0 131.5 131.6 131.7 131.7 131.9 132.2 132.4 132.5 133.3

LONG KING CREEK
 LIVINGSTON    19.0   4.0  4.4  5.0  5.4  6.0  9.0 11.1 13.3 17.2

LOWER TRINITY RIVER
 GOODRICH      36.0   7.3  8.8  9.4 10.9 12.3 15.0 16.6 21.7 25.0

RYE CREEK
 RYE           20.0   8.8  9.2  9.6  9.7  9.9 10.4 11.9 15.5 19.9
 ROMAYOR       40.0  13.0 13.2 14.3 15.2 16.3 18.5 19.9 24.3 27.5
 LIBERTY       26.0   8.4  8.8 10.3 11.8 12.7 16.2 18.1 21.9 25.7
 MOSS BLUFF    15.0   5.4  5.5  6.2  6.7  7.0  9.7 10.6 13.1 15.1


THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:   WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI?HGX
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.

$$






000
FGUS74 KHGX 171508
ESFHGX
180308-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
1008 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE SAN JACINTO RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...


THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR THE
SAN JACINTO RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.


IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS.  EXAMPLE:  THE SAN JACINTO RIVER NEAR CONROE HAS A FLOOD
STAGE OF 115.8 FEET.  THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE CONROE
FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 102.0 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.


        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                  VALID [ 4/16/2014 - 7/16/2014 ]


LOCATION     FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
------------------------------------------------------------------
EAST FORK SAN JACINTO RIVER
 CLEVELAND    19.0   6.8  9.8 10.4 11.7 12.5 13.7 15.0 17.0 17.5
 NEW CANEY    21.0   5.0  8.3  9.0 10.6 11.5 13.2 16.0 20.5 21.1

CANEY CREEK
 SPLENDORA    13.0   5.5  6.5  8.7  9.6 10.5 11.0 15.4 17.6 18.7

PEACH CREEK
 SPLENDORA    18.0  7.1  8.2  8.6  9.1  9.6 10.1 13.0 15.8 16.6

WEST FORK SAN JACINTO RIVER
 CONROE      115.8  95.8 98.1 98.8 100.2 102.0 104.0 107.1 113.4 114.7
 PORTER       24.0  12.7 15.7 16.9 18.7 21.3 23.1 25.7 30.3 31.6
 HUMBLE       49.3  43.9 44.8 44.8 45.2 45.5 46.7 47.9 51.5 52.3

SPRING CREEK
 SPRING       21.0   4.0  4.9  5.9  7.5  8.5 12.3 17.3 21.2 23.5

CYPRESS CREEK
 WESTFIELD    82.9  69.1 71.2 73.5 77.1 77.9 82.1 83.9 87.9 89.5

SAN JACINTO RIVER BELOW LAKE HOUSTON
 SHELDON      10.0   1.7  2.8  3.1  3.8  4.2  4.9  6.4 10.9 12.0


THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:   WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI?HGX
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.

$$






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