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000
FGUS74 KHGX 211921
ESFHGX
220721-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
221 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE SAN BERNARD RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...


THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR THE
SAN BERNARD RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.


IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90
DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE SAN BERNARD RIVER NEAR BOLING HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 18
FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE BOLING FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE
11.1 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.


             CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                       VALID 8/20/2014 - 11/19/2014


LOCATION     FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
 EAST BERNARD 17.0   8.4 10.7 12.5 14.6 15.1 15.7 16.9 18.6 19.7
 BOLING       18.0   4.0  5.0  6.3  8.3 11.1 13.4 18.7 24.1 28.6
 SWEENY       16.0  11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 12.0 15.5 19.2


THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.


ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:   WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI?HGX
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).


LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.


$$






000
FGUS74 KHGX 211919
ESFHGX
220719-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
219 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE TRINITY RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...


THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR THE
TRINITY RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.


IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS.  EXAMPLE:  THE TRINITY RIVER AT LIBERTY HAS A FLOOD
STAGE OF 26 FEET.  THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE LIBERTY
FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 15.4  FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.


        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                  VALID 8/20/2014 - 11/19/2014


LOCATION     FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
------------------------------------------------------------------
TRINITY RIVER
 CROCKETT      41.0   9.9  9.9 10.5 11.4 13.1 15.7 18.2 18.8 20.6
BEDIAS CREEK
 MADISONVILLE  19.0   2.1  6.9  7.8 11.3 12.4 14.6 15.7 17.8 20.1
TRINITY RIVER
 RIVERSIDE    134.0 131.5 131.5 131.7 131.8 132.0 132.2 132.2 132.5 133.5
LONG KING CREEK
 LIVINGSTON    19.0   3.5  4.1  4.7  6.7 10.5 12.7 16.0 19.1 24.0
LOWER TRINITY RIVER
 GOODRICH      36.0   7.8  8.3 10.6 12.9 15.1 16.5 19.2 21.5 28.1
RYE CREEK
 RYE           20.0   8.8  9.2  9.8 10.3 10.5 11.9 15.7 22.6 25.4
 ROMAYOR       40.0  12.5 13.0 14.8 16.7 18.5 19.8 21.3 24.2 29.4
 LIBERTY       26.0   8.2  9.5 12.1 14.2 15.4 16.6 18.0 23.7 27.8
 MOSS BLUFF    15.0   5.3  5.7  6.7  8.1  9.3  9.9 11.0 13.7 16.1


THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.


ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:   WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI?HGX
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).


LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.


$$






000
FGUS74 KHGX 211911
ESFHGX
220711-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
211 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE BRAZOS RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...


THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR THE
BRAZOS RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS.
THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.


IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS.  EXAMPLE: THE BRAZOS RIVER AT RICHMOND HAS A FLOOD
STAGE OF 24 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE RICHMOND
FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 16.2 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.


        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                  VALID 8/20/2014 - 11/19/2014


LOCATION     FS(FT)    90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------------------------------------------------------------------
BRAZOS RIVER
 BRYAN          43.0   7.3  7.6  8.8 11.2 12.5 14.1 16.3 19.1 23.2
EAST YEGUA CREEK
 DIME BOX       12.0   3.2  3.6  4.7  7.4  8.2  8.6  9.2 10.3 11.8
MIDDLE YEGUA CREEK
 DIME BOX       10.0   1.9  3.4  4.3  5.2  8.1  8.9  9.9 11.0 12.8
DAVIDSON CREEK
 LYONS          16.0   2.4  3.2  3.4  4.6  5.4  6.5  7.3 12.5 15.7
NAVASOTA RIVER
 NORMANGEE      15.0   1.2  3.6  5.9  7.5  8.8  9.6 11.9 13.7 15.3
LOWER BRAZOS RIVER
 HEMPSTEAD      50.0   9.3  8.4 13.0 16.0 18.0 22.3 25.3 30.6 36.3
 RICHMOND       27.0   9.2 10.4 13.0 13.9 16.2 18.1 20.3 28.1 36.4
 ROSHARON       21.0   3.8  5.6  9.0 10.2 13.3 16.2 19.5 30.7 40.9
 WEST COLUMBIA  29.0   6.4  6.8  7.4  8.1 10.3 11.4 13.3 19.2 23.7


THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.


ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:   WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI?HGX
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).


LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH
$$






000
FGUS74 KHGX 211543
ESFHGX
220343-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
1043 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...


THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR THE
COLORADO RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS. THIS
SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS.  EXAMPLE:  THE COLORADO RIVER AT WHARTON HAS A FLOOD
STAGE OF 39 FEET.  THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE WHARTON FORECAST
POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 19.3 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                  VALID [8/20/2014 - 11/19/2014]

LOCATION     FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
------------------------------------------------------------------
COLORADO RIVER
 COLUMBUS     17.0  11.9 12.3 13.1 15.6 17.0 19.7 22.6 30.5 36.6
 WHARTON      18.0  12.1 12.6 14.6 17.1 19.3 21.6 25.2 31.0 38.9
 BAY CITY     16.0   6.3  7.2  8.6 12.6 14.2 18.5 22.2 28.6 33.2

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:   WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI?HGX
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.
$$






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