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MNC003-009-013-015-019-023-037-049-053-073-079-103-123-127-129-139-
141-143-145-153-163-171-173-WIC011-035-091-093-109-142359-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1135 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...FLOOD PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL MN AND EASTERN
WI...

IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  ALL CURRENT PROBABILITIES ARE
AT OR BELOW THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE FOR EACH LOCATION.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID  PERIOD: 3/9/2015 - 6/7/2015

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATERGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS        6.0   15.0   16.0 :  <5   24   <5   <5   <5   <5
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
NEW ULM             11.0   13.0   16.0 :  10   33   <5   18   <5    9
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO          14.0   16.0   17.5 :  21   40   <5   23   <5   10
GRANITE FALLS      888.5  893.5  896.5 :  <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
MANKATO             22.0   25.0   30.0 :  <5   15   <5    7   <5   <5
HENDERSON          732.0  736.0  739.5 :  <5   18   <5    7   <5   <5
JORDAN              25.0   28.0   34.0 :   6   26   <5   16   <5   <5
SAVAGE             702.0  710.0  712.0 :  16   60   <5   12   <5    7
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE         7.0    8.0   10.0 :  <5   20   <5    6   <5   <5
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD             6.0    7.0    9.0 :  <5   16   <5    9   <5   <5
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER               11.0   15.0   16.0 :   6   27   <5    9   <5    7
DELANO              16.5   17.5   18.5 :  <5   16   <5   12   <5   10
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD            10.0   12.0   14.0 :  <5   18   <5   10   <5    6
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD             9.0   10.0   11.0 :  <5   29   <5   13   <5   <5
MINNEAPOLIS         16.0   16.5   17.0 :  <5    7   <5    7   <5    6
ST PAUL             14.0   15.0   17.0 :  <5   21   <5   16   <5   10
HASTINGS L/D#2      15.0   17.0   18.0 :   6   38   <5   16   <5   13
RED WING L/D#3     680.5  681.5  683.0 :  <5   24   <5   15   <5    7
RED WING            14.0   15.0   16.0 :  <5   16   <5   12   <5    7
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER          87.0   88.0   89.0 :  <5   20   <5   15   <5    9
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK          11.0   14.0   17.0 :  13   27    9   16   <5   <5
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE         773.0  776.0  778.0 :  10   21   <5    7   <5   <5
DURAND              13.0   15.5   17.0 :  29   47    6   12   <5    6


LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                              CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID  PERIOD: 3/9/2015 - 6/7/2015
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS         1.9    2.1    2.5    3.1    3.6    5.3    6.0
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
NEW ULM               4.8    5.1    6.2    7.2    9.1   11.6   14.6
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO            7.1    7.9    9.7   11.4   13.4   14.9   16.5
GRANITE FALLS       882.5  882.9  883.5  884.0  884.6  885.6  887.0
MANKATO               7.3    7.9    9.3   11.2   14.4   17.7   19.5
HENDERSON           718.8  719.7  721.4  723.8  726.6  729.1  730.8
JORDAN               10.0   11.0   13.2   16.4   20.5   24.0   25.6
SAVAGE              688.5  688.9  691.6  696.0  700.3  704.7  706.6
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE          2.8    3.0    3.6    4.5    5.6    6.3    6.7
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD              1.4    1.5    1.7    2.4    3.9    5.1    5.6
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER                 3.0    3.1    3.6    4.8    7.4    9.7   12.0
DELANO                7.0    7.1    7.7    9.6   11.9   14.5   16.0
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD              2.8    2.9    3.2    4.4    5.5    7.4    9.7
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD              4.7    4.9    5.2    5.8    6.7    8.0    8.4
MINNEAPOLIS           5.0    5.2    5.7    6.9    8.1   11.1   13.4
ST PAUL               3.0    3.2    4.2    5.8    7.4   10.4   12.5
HASTINGS L/D#2        5.2    5.4    6.4    8.4   10.5   13.8   15.6
RED WING L/D#3      670.4  670.6  672.2  673.8  675.1  678.2  679.5
RED WING              4.5    4.6    6.5    7.7    8.6   11.4   12.8
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER           76.3   76.4   78.0   80.1   82.1   85.2   87.5
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK            5.9    6.1    6.9    7.9    9.4   13.7   16.1
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE          764.3  765.2  766.6  768.5  770.6  773.3  774.1
DURAND                8.6    9.1   10.1   11.6   13.3   15.3   15.8

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR
THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE...OR LOW-FLOW...PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID  PERIOD: 3/9/2015 - 6/7/2015
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS         1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.4    1.3    1.3
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
NEW ULM               2.5    2.5    2.4    2.4    2.3    2.2    2.0
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO            3.6    3.5    3.5    3.5    2.7    2.5    2.4
GRANITE FALLS       880.9  880.8  880.8  880.8  880.3  880.2  880.0
MANKATO               3.1    3.0    3.0    3.0    2.8    2.5    2.3
HENDERSON           712.9  712.9  712.9  712.9  712.7  712.1  711.6
JORDAN                4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.3    4.0
SAVAGE              687.4  687.4  687.4  687.4  687.4  687.4  687.4
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE          1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.5    1.4    1.2
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD              1.1    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    0.7    0.6
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER                 1.3    1.3    1.3    1.3    0.9    0.7    0.6
DELANO                5.4    5.4    5.4    5.4    5.1    4.9    4.8
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD              2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    1.6    1.5
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD              4.0    4.0    4.0    3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9
MINNEAPOLIS           4.0    4.0    4.0    3.9    3.9    3.7    3.3
ST PAUL               3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0
HASTINGS L/D#2        4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.4    4.4
RED WING L/D#3      667.0  667.0  667.0  667.0  667.0  667.0  667.0
RED WING              1.8    1.8    1.8    1.8    1.8    1.8    1.8
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER           75.0   75.0   75.0   75.0   75.0   75.0   74.8
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK            0.7    0.7    0.7    0.7    0.7    0.7    0.7
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE          758.7  758.7  758.7  758.7  758.7  758.7  758.7
DURAND                2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5    2.4    2.4

WINTER PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A BELOW NORMAL CHANCE OF FLOODING.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW FLOW ISSUES THIS SUMMER IF BELOW
NORMAL RAINFALL PATTERNS CONTINUE THROUGH THE SPRING AND SUMMER.

MOST OF THE AREA IS CONSIDERED ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/...WITH A SMALL
REGION OF INITIAL DROUGHT /D1/ IN WESTERN MINNESOTA. THE OUTLOOK
CALLS FOR THIS PATTERN TO PERSIST INTO THE SPRING. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT MONITOR PLEASE REFERENCE
WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

FOR INFORMATION ON STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS FOR USGS LOCATIONS PLEASE
REFERENCE FOR MINNESOTA   WWW.WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/MN/NWIS/RT FOR
WISCONSIN   WWW.WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/WI/NWIS/RT

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON STREAM FLOW CONIDITIONS AT MN DNR
LOCATIONS PLEASE REFERENCE WWW.DNR.STATE.MN.US/WATERS/CSG/INDEX.HTML
OR CLIMATE.UMN.EDU/DOW/WEEKLY_STREAM_FLOW/STREAM_FLOW_WEEKLY.ASP

FOR A QUICK REFERENCE MAP OF THE  RISK OF MINOR...MODERATE MAJOR
FLOODING PLEASE REFERENCE
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/NCRFC/?N=SPROUTLOOKCURRENT

ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT ON THE
INTERNET AT

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TWINCITIES (LOWER CASE)

THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED IN LATE MARCH

$$





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