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000
FGUS74 KOUN 212004
ESFOUN
TXC009-023-077-155-197-275-485-487-220804-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
204 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE BRAZOS RIVER BASIN IN WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS) FOR THE
BRAZOS RIVER BASIN IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE BRAZOS RIVER AT SEYMOUR HAS A FLOOD
STAGE OF 12 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE SEYMOUR
FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 2.3 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
            VALID 11/19/2014 - 2/18/2015

LOCATION     FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------     ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
BRAZOS RIVER
 SEYMOUR      12.0   1.2  1.3  1.7  2.1  2.3  3.1  3.4  4.1  5.8

LOCATION       FS(FT)    90%     80%     70%     60%     50%
-------------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------
MILLER CREEK
 MILLERS CR LK 1340.0  1311.4  1311.6  1311.8  1312.1  1312.4

                         40%     30%     20%     10%
                       ------  ------  ------  ------
                       1313.1  1313.7  1314.3  1315.8

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT: HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=OUN

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.

$$






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