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000
FGUS62 KALR 041732
ESGALR

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
SOUTHERN REGION
NWS SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER ATLANTA, GA
1230 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS WELL
AS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA RIVERS. NEAR NORMAL POTENTIAL OF RIVER
FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINING RIVER WATERSHEDS OF EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND FLORIDA.

HISTORICALLY FOR EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND NORTH
FLORIDA...THE RIVER FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN EARLY TO MID
JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOOD EVENTS INCREASING THROUGH
LATE WINTER WITH A PEAK IN EARLY TO MID MARCH...ENDING IN LATE APRIL
FOR THE REGION.  FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...THE RIVER FLOOD
SEASON IS PRIMARILY IN LATE SUMMER AND EARLY FALL.

STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA WITH ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS IN PARTS OF FLORIDA AND SOUTH
GEORGIA. MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE HINTS AT
CONTINUED WET WEATHER THROUGH APRIL. THEREFORE...THE EXPECTATION IS
FOR THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOODS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THOSE RIVER
FLOODS TO BE CLOSE TO TYPICAL THROUGH APRIL.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH GEORGIA AND EASTERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WATERSHEDS WHERE RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOVE
NORMAL...AND THE MAGNITUDE AND NUMBER OF RIVER FLOOD EVENTS COULD
EXCEED WHAT IS TYPICAL THROUGH APRIL.

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS PROVIDED BY THE
USGS AS OF MARCH 2ND ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL WITHIN THE ALABAMA
RIVER WATERSHED WITH NEAR NORMAL STREAMFLOWS OBSERVED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...AND MOST OF GEORGIA.  STREAMFLOWS
ARE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH GEORGIA...AND MOST OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.

PAST PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS...BASED ON
SERFC MULTISENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES...HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS WELL AS
FAR NORTH GEORGIA WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS REMAINING PARTS OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN HALF OF GEORGIA.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.

RESERVOIRS...MOST RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR THEIR TARGET POOLS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS
INDICATE A CONTINUED WET WEATHER PATTERN.  THE LATEST CPC 8 TO 14
DAY OUTLOOK IS INDICATING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID
MARCH.

AS FAR AS LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS...BASED ON CPC LONG
LEAD OUTLOOK...ENSO IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT. THE LATEST
CPC 3-MONTH OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST...PRIMARILY BASED ON CLIMATE MODELS
RATHER THAN ENSO.  SEE THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEB SITE FOR
MORE DETAILS.

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

THE SERFC ISSUES A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO UPDATE
THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES.  THE SERFC WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
IS UPDATED EVERY TWO TO THREE WEEKS.

FOR THE LATEST MULTIMEDIA VERSION OF THE WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK...GO TO...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC AND CLICK ON WATER RESOURCE MENU.

DOBUR/HAMILL





000
FGUS62 KALR 041552
ESGALR

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
EASTERN REGION
NWS SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER ATLANTA, GA
1052 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL POTENTIAL OF RIVER
FLOODING ACROSS MOST OF UPSTATE AND PIEDMONT REGIONS OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RISK
FOR THE RIVERS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH APRIL...

HISTORICALLY FOR THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...THE RIVER
FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN EARLY TO MID JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF
RIVER FLOOD EVENTS INCREASING THROUGH LATE WINTER WITH A PEAK IN
EARLY TO MID MARCH...ENDING IN LATE APRIL FOR THE REGION.

FOR SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA...STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING
BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL...THOUGH MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE PRECIPITATION
GUIDANCE HINTS AT CONTINUED WET WEATHER THROUGH APRIL.  THEREFORE...
THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOODS AND THE MAGNITUDE
OF THOSE RIVER FLOODS TO BE CLOSE TO TYPICAL THROUGH APRIL...OR
CLIMATOLOGICALLY OBSERVED.  FOR THE COASTAL REGION RIVERS...FLOOD
RISK MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER COMPARED TO NORMAL CONSIDERING CURRENT
SOIL MOISTURE...RECENT RAINFALL AND EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION THROUGH APRIL.

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS PROVIDED BY THE
USGS AS OF MARCH 2ND ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AND UPSTATE NORTH CAROLINA.  ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...RIVERS ARE PRIMARILY
REPORTING NEAR NORMAL STREAMFLOWS AT THIS TIME.

PAST PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS...BASED ON
SERFC MULTISENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES...HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE UPSTATE REGIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTH CAROLINA. IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND PIEDMONT REGIONS OF NORTH
CAROLINA ESTIMATES ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

RESERVOIRS...MOST RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR THEIR TARGET POOLS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SNOW PACK...BASED ON THE NOHRSC MODELED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS FOR
MARCH 2ND... THE HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE UPSTATE REGION OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND MOST OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA HAVE
DISSIPATED AS SNOW PACKS HAVE MELTED OFF IN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS
INDICATE A CONTINUED WET WEATHER PATTERN.  THE LATEST CPC 8 TO 14
DAY OUTLOOK IS INDICATING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID
MARCH.

AS FAR AS LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS...BASED ON CPC LONG
LEAD OUTLOOK...ENSO IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT. THE LATEST
CPC 3-MONTH OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST...PRIMARILY BASED ON CLIMATE MODELS
RATHER THAN ENSO.  SEE THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEB SITE FOR
MORE DETAILS.

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

THE SERFC ISSUES A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO UPDATE
THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES.  THE SERFC WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
IS UPDATED EVERY TWO TO THREE WEEKS.

FOR THE LATEST MULTIMEDIA VERSION OF THE WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK...GO TO...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC AND CLICK ON WATER RESOURCE MENU.

DOBUR/HAMILL





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