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000
FGUS63 KKRF 221539
ESGUMO

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1033 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  7/26/2014 - 10/24/2014 Z

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:BIG HOLE R AT MELROSE MT
MLRM8               6.0   7.5   8.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:GALLATIN R AT GALLATIN GTWY MT 7S
GLGM8               6.0   7.0   7.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:GALLATIN R AT LOGAN MT 1W
LOGM8               9.0  10.0  11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MUDDY CR AT VAUGHN MT
MDYM8               7.0  12.0  16.0     8    8   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 0726 Z DH12 /DC1407221033/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 7/26/2014 - 10/24/2014

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:BIG HOLE R
MLRM8       2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.3/    2.6

:GALLATIN R
GLGM8       2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2
LOGM8       4.5/    4.5/    4.6/    4.7/    4.8/    5.0/    5.1

:MUDDY CR
MDYM8       4.8/    4.8/    4.8/    4.8/    4.8/    5.9/    9.2

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

.END

$$






000
FGUS63 KKRF 221535
ESGKSR

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1033 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  7/26/2014 - 10/24/2014 Z

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:CHAPMAN CR AT CHAPMAN KS 4NNW
CHPK1              19.0  26.0  37.0     7   22   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LYON CR AT JUNCTION CITY KS 7S
JNCK1              21.0  35.0  39.0    10   17   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SMOKY HILL R AT JUNCTION CITY KS 4SSW
JUCK1              22.0  32.0  44.0    <5    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:KANSAS R AT FT RILEY KS
FTRK1              21.0  26.0  33.0    <5   10   <5    8   <5   <5
:KANSAS R AT MANHATTAN KS
MHKK1              18.0  26.0  42.0     5   13   <5    6   <5   <5
:KANSAS R AT WAMEGO KS NO.2
WMGK1              19.0  26.0  38.0    <5    9   <5    6   <5   <5
:VERMILLION R AT LOUISVILLE KS 5NE
LOUK1              30.0  34.0  44.0    16   30   14   19   <5   <5
:ROCK CR AT LOUISVILLE KS
LISK1              27.0  33.0  43.0     9   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
:KANSAS R AT BELVUE KS 4SE
BVUK1              20.0  28.0  33.0    <5    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CROSS CR AT ROSSVILLE KS
RSSK1              25.0  29.0  31.0     6   28   <5    9   <5   <5
:MILL CR AT PAXICO KS 1SW
PXCK1              21.0  31.0  33.0    17   20   <5   <5   <5   <5
:KANSAS R AT TOPEKA KS
TPAK1              26.0  27.0  44.0    <5   11   <5   10   <5   <5
:SOLDIER CR AT DELIA KS 3E
DELK1              26.0  26.5  29.5     8   21    7   19   <5   <5
:SOLDIER CR AT TOPEKA KS 4NW
TOPK1              29.0  34.0  40.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:DELAWARE R AT MUSCOTAH KS 2S
MSCK1              27.0  28.0  36.0    28   32   17   26   <5   <5
:KANSAS R AT LECOMPTON KS 1NE
LCPK1              17.0  23.8  38.0    11   20   <5   <5   <5   <5
:KANSAS R AT LAWRENCE KS HWY 40
LWRK1              18.0  20.0  29.0     8   18   <5   10   <5   <5
:WAKARUSA R AT LAWRENCE KS 4S
LAWK1              23.0  25.0  45.0     9   13    7   10   <5   <5
:STRANGER CR AT EASTON KS
ESTK1              17.0  18.0  23.0    58   58   57   57    5    5
:STRANGER CR AT TONGANOXIE KS 4E
TNGK1              23.0  30.0  35.0    43   47   <5   <5   <5   <5
:KANSAS R AT DESOTO KS 1N
DSOK1              26.0  33.0  36.0     5   15   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 0726 Z DH12 /DC1407221033/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 7/26/2014 - 10/24/2014

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:CHAPMAN CR
CHPK1       4.2/    4.2/    4.3/    6.8/   11.9/   18.0/   19.8

:LYON CR
JNCK1       5.6/    5.6/    6.2/   10.4/   12.6/   20.2/   30.4

:SMOKY HILL R
JUCK1       1.4/    2.1/    2.9/    5.1/    8.2/   12.9/   18.9

:KANSAS R
FTRK1       6.1/    6.1/    7.3/    9.5/   10.3/   13.9/   17.8
MHKK1       6.3/    6.3/    7.2/    9.3/   10.9/   14.2/   18.0
WMGK1       4.4/    4.6/    5.2/    8.4/   10.0/   13.8/   14.4

:VERMILLION R
LOUK1       6.7/    6.7/    8.7/   15.0/   23.2/   35.0/   38.9

:ROCK CR
LISK1       8.9/    8.9/    9.0/   11.3/   19.0/   26.2/   29.4

:KANSAS R
BVUK1       6.5/    6.6/    7.3/   10.2/   11.6/   15.6/   15.8

:CROSS CR
RSSK1       9.0/    9.0/    9.2/   11.8/   18.4/   22.8/   25.7

:MILL CR
PXCK1       2.6/    2.6/    3.3/    7.1/   10.8/   27.1/   28.0

:KANSAS R
TPAK1       5.5/    5.7/    6.7/   10.3/   14.0/   20.7/   25.9

:SOLDIER CR
DELK1       6.8/    6.8/    7.8/   13.6/   22.6/   25.4/   27.3
TOPK1      -0.2/   -0.1/    1.6/    6.3/   16.2/   19.8/   22.1

:DELAWARE R
MSCK1       2.1/    2.1/    7.1/   17.2/   27.1/   28.5/   29.8

:KANSAS R
LCPK1       3.0/    3.1/    6.4/    7.2/   10.9/   17.5/   19.8
LWRK1       7.8/    7.9/   10.1/   10.9/   13.5/   17.2/   19.0

:WAKARUSA R
LAWK1       4.3/    4.5/    5.3/   10.0/   17.1/   22.5/   26.5

:STRANGER CR
ESTK1       2.1/    2.1/    9.9/   19.5/   20.9/   22.1/   23.0
TNGK1       2.1/    2.4/    9.6/   19.0/   25.2/   27.1/   27.3

:KANSAS R
DSOK1       5.6/    6.9/    8.6/   10.5/   15.2/   21.7/   26.2

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

.END

$$






000
FGUS63 KKRF 221527
ESGMIL

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1002 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  7/26/2014 - 10/24/2014 Z

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:ST MARY R AT INTNL BOUNDARY MT
SMBM8               7.5   8.5   9.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MILK R AT EASTERN CROSSING MT
ERNM8               9.5  11.0  13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BIG SANDY CR AT HAVRE MT 7WSW
BSMM8               8.5  10.0  12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MILK R AT HAVRE MT 2WNW
HVRM8              10.0  15.0  18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LODGE CR AT INTNL BOUNDRY MT
LGEM8               7.0   9.5  12.0     6    7    5    6   <5   <5
:BATTLE CR AT CHINOOK MT
BCMM8              10.0  12.0  14.0     6    6    5    6    5    5
:CLEAR CR AT CHINOOK MT
CCMM8               5.5   6.5   8.0     5    7   <5    6   <5    6
:MILK R AT HARLEM MT 4SSE
HRLM8              21.0  23.0  25.0     5    6   <5    5   <5   <5
:MILK R AT DODSON MT 2W
DMRM8              23.0  28.0  31.0     5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MILK R AT MALTA MT
MALM8              16.0  19.0  22.0     5    5   <5    5   <5   <5
:MILK R AT SACO MT 7NE
SACM8              20.0  22.0  24.0     5    5   <5    5   <5   <5
:BEAVER CR AT HINSDALE MT 4NW
BCHM8              14.0  16.0  17.0     6    8    5    7    5    7
:MILK R AT TAMPICO MT
TMPM8              23.0  24.0  27.0     5    6    5    5   <5    5
:MILK R AT GLASGOW MT 3SE
GLWM8              25.0  29.0  31.0     8    9    6    6   <5   <5
:MILK R AT NASHUA MT 1SW
NSHM8              20.0  28.0  30.0     6    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:POPLAR R AT POPLAR MT 4N
PLRM8              15.5  16.5  17.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 0726 Z DH12 /DC1407221002/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 7/26/2014 - 10/24/2014

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:ST MARY R
SMBM8       5.0/    5.0/    5.0/    5.0/    5.0/    5.2/    5.4

:MILK R
ERNM8       4.0/    4.0/    4.0/    4.1/    4.1/    4.3/    5.1

:BIG SANDY CR
BSMM8       2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.6/    2.6/    3.1/    6.7

:MILK R
HVRM8       3.6/    3.6/    3.8/    3.8/    4.0/    4.1/    5.6

:LODGE CR
LGEM8       2.5/    2.5/    2.6/    2.6/    2.8/    3.2/    9.8

:BATTLE CR
BCMM8       1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    1.8/    2.6/   12.8

:CLEAR CR
CCMM8       1.9/    1.9/    1.9/    2.0/    2.1/    3.0/    5.6

:MILK R
HRLM8       7.6/    7.6/    7.6/    8.0/    8.2/   10.6/   21.1
DMRM8       6.1/    6.1/    6.1/    6.1/    6.5/    9.8/   23.2
MALM8       2.6/    2.6/    2.6/    2.6/    2.8/    4.2/   15.1
SACM8       3.9/    3.9/    3.9/    3.9/    4.3/    6.6/   18.6

:BEAVER CR
BCHM8       4.1/    4.1/    4.1/    4.2/    4.4/    5.6/   16.8

:MILK R
TMPM8       3.6/    3.6/    3.6/    3.8/    5.2/    8.1/   22.0
GLWM8       5.6/    5.6/    5.6/    6.0/    9.2/   18.7/   29.8
NSHM8       2.2/    2.3/    2.3/    2.4/    4.1/   10.9/   23.4

:POPLAR R
PLRM8       1.0/    1.0/    1.0/    1.0/    1.1/    1.3/    2.6

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

.END

$$






000
FGUS63 KKRF 221519
ESGJAM

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1017 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  7/26/2014 - 10/24/2014 Z

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:JAMES R AT GRACE CITY ND 3W
GCEN8              12.0  14.0  15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PIPESTEM CR AT PINGREE ND 3W
PGEN8              11.0  13.0  15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:JAMES R AT LA MOURE ND
LAMN8              14.0  16.0  18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:ELM R AT WESTPORT SD 1N
WESS2              14.0  16.0  19.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:JAMES R AT COLUMBIA SD 1S
CMBS2              13.0  16.0  18.0     7   11   <5    6   <5   <5
:JAMES R AT STRATFORD SD 7SW
SFDS2              14.0  17.0  18.5     8   14   <5    8   <5    6
:JAMES R AT ASHTON SD
ATNS2              13.0  14.0  16.0    <5   11   <5    9   <5    8
:TURTLE CR AT REDFIELD SD
ID8S2               7.0  10.0  15.0     7   12   <5    6   <5   <5
:JAMES R AT REDFIELD SD 3NE
RFDS2              20.0  22.0  24.0    <5    6   <5    5   <5   <5
:JAMES R AT HURON SD
HURS2              11.0  13.0  15.0     6   14   <5   11   <5    9
:JAMES R AT FORESTBURG SD 4SE
FORS2              12.0  14.0  16.0    <5   15   <5    8   <5   <5
:JAMES R AT MITCHELL SD 4SE
JRMS2              17.0  20.0  22.0     5   21   <5    7   <5   <5
:FIRESTEEL CR AT MOUNT VERNON SD 5N
MTVS2               8.0  13.0  15.0    <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:JAMES R AT SCOTLAND SD 5NE
SCOS2              13.0  14.0  16.0    <5   17   <5   11   <5    7
:JAMES R AT YANKTON SD
YNNS2              12.0  14.0  16.0    <5   16   <5   10   <5    7
:W FK VERMILLION R AT PARKER SD 3WNW
PKRS2               9.0  10.0  11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:E FK VERMILLION AT PARKER SD 4NE
VRPS2              12.0  14.0  16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:VERMILLION R AT DAVIS SD 2SE
DVSS2              11.0  13.0  15.0     7    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:VERMILLION R AT WAKONDA SD 7ESE
WKAS2              14.0  15.5  17.0     7   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:VERMILLION R AT VERMILLION SD 3N
VERS2              21.0  22.0  30.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 0726 Z DH12 /DC1407221017/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 7/26/2014 - 10/24/2014

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:JAMES R
GCEN8       4.6/    4.6/    4.6/    4.6/    4.8/    5.3/    6.4

:PIPESTEM CR
PGEN8       5.0/    5.0/    5.0/    5.0/    5.1/    5.5/    6.9

:JAMES R
LAMN8       8.3/    8.4/    8.4/    8.4/    8.4/    8.4/    9.2

:ELM R
WESS2       4.6/    4.6/    4.6/    4.8/    5.0/    6.8/    9.0

:JAMES R
CMBS2      11.6/   11.6/   11.6/   11.6/   11.6/   11.6/   15.5
SFDS2      13.7/   13.7/   13.7/   13.7/   13.7/   13.7/   15.6
ATNS2       9.4/    9.4/    9.4/    9.4/    9.4/    9.4/   10.3

:TURTLE CR
ID8S2       3.3/    3.3/    3.4/    3.6/    4.1/    5.4/    8.0

:JAMES R
RFDS2       8.5/    8.5/    8.5/    8.5/    8.5/    9.7/   11.7
HURS2      10.2/   10.2/   10.2/   10.2/   10.2/   10.5/   11.1
FORS2       8.2/    8.2/    8.2/    8.2/    8.2/    8.6/   10.7
JRMS2      13.9/   13.9/   13.9/   13.9/   13.9/   14.3/   16.8

:FIRESTEEL CR
MTVS2       2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    5.0/    6.9

:JAMES R
SCOS2       6.5/    6.5/    6.5/    6.5/    6.5/   10.3/   11.4
YNNS2       4.8/    4.8/    4.8/    4.8/    4.8/    6.9/    8.4

:W FK VERMILLION R
PKRS2       0.7/    0.7/    0.7/    0.7/    1.3/    2.5/    4.0

:E FK VERMILLION
VRPS2       3.4/    3.4/    3.4/    3.4/    4.8/    6.9/    9.8

:VERMILLION R
DVSS2       2.7/    2.7/    2.7/    2.9/    5.6/    9.4/   11.8
WKAS2       4.1/    4.1/    4.1/    4.2/    6.6/   11.9/   14.7
VERS2       3.5/    3.5/    3.5/    4.0/    6.8/   12.2/   14.8

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

.END

$$






000
FGUS63 KKRF 221434
ESGYEL

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
932 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  7/26/2014 - 10/24/2014 Z

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:YELLOWSTONE R AT YELLOWSTONE LK WY BLO
YLOW4               9.0  10.0  11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LAMAR R AT TOWER FALLS WY
TFLW4              15.0  16.0  17.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:YELLOWSTONE R AT CORWIN SPRINGS MT
CORM8              11.0  12.0  13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:YELLOWSTONE R AT LIVINGSTON MT 5S
LIVM8               9.5  10.0  10.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SHIELDS R AT LIVINGSTON MT 7NE
SLDM8               5.5   6.3   6.8    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BOULDER R AT BIG TIMBER MT 1E
BTMM8               7.0   8.0   9.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:STILLWATER R AT ABSAROKEE MT 1NE
SRAM8               6.5   6.8   7.2    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CLKS FK YLLWSTN AT BELFRY MT 10SW
BFYM8               8.0   9.0  10.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CLARKS FK YELLOWSTONE R AT EDGAR MT
EDGM8               8.5   9.5  10.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:YELLOWSTONE R AT BILLINGS MT 1NE
BILM8              13.5  14.5  15.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:TONGUE R AT BIRNEY MT
BNYM8               6.0   7.0   8.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PUMPKIN CR AT MILES CITY MT
PMKM8              13.0  15.0  17.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:TONGUE R AT MILES CITY MT 2S
MICM8              10.0  13.0  15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 0726 Z DH12 /DC1407220932/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 7/26/2014 - 10/24/2014

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:YELLOWSTONE R
YLOW4       6.2/    6.2/    6.2/    6.2/    6.2/    6.2/    6.2

:LAMAR R
TFLW4       2.8/    2.8/    2.8/    2.8/    3.1/    4.0/    4.5

:YELLOWSTONE R
CORM8       4.4/    4.4/    4.4/    4.4/    4.4/    4.4/    4.5
LIVM8       4.7/    4.7/    4.7/    4.7/    4.7/    4.7/    4.8

:SHIELDS R
SLDM8       1.3/    1.3/    1.3/    1.4/    2.1/    2.3/    2.7

:BOULDER R
BTMM8       3.4/    3.4/    3.4/    3.6/    3.9/    4.3/    4.5

:STILLWATER R
SRAM8       3.3/    3.3/    3.3/    3.3/    3.4/    3.7/    4.1

:CLKS FK YLLWSTN
BFYM8       3.4/    3.4/    3.6/    4.0/    4.5/    5.1/    5.6

:CLARKS FK YELLOWSTONE R
EDGM8       3.7/    3.7/    3.9/    4.3/    4.7/    5.4/    5.7

:YELLOWSTONE R
BILM8       5.4/    5.4/    5.4/    5.4/    5.4/    5.5/    5.7

:TONGUE R
BNYM8       2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.3

:PUMPKIN CR
PMKM8       2.0/    2.0/    3.3/    3.4/    3.5/    7.6/    9.9

:TONGUE R
MICM8       3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.2/    4.3/    5.8

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

.END

$$






000
FGUS63 KKRF 221431
ESGBGH

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
930 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  7/26/2014 - 10/24/2014 Z

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:WIND R AT DUBOIS WY 6NW
DUBW4               5.0   5.5   6.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WIND R ABV RED CR AT DUBOIS WY 12SE
WRCW4               9.5  10.5  11.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:N FK SHOSHONE R AT WAPITI WY 5E
NFSW4               8.0   9.0  10.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 0726 Z DH12 /DC1407220930/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 7/26/2014 - 10/24/2014

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:WIND R
DUBW4       3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2

:WIND R ABV RED CR
WRCW4       4.7/    4.7/    4.7/    4.7/    4.7/    4.7/    4.7

:N FK SHOSHONE R
NFSW4       4.3/    4.3/    4.3/    4.3/    4.3/    4.3/    4.3

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

.END

$$






000
FGUS63 KKRF 221314
ESGSPL

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
811 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  7/26/2014 - 10/24/2014 Z

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:SOUTH PLATTE R AT SOUTH PLATTE CO
SPTC2               7.0   9.0  11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PLUM CR AT SEDALIA CO 1W
LOVC2               8.0  10.0  12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BEAR CR AT MORRISON CO
MRRC2               9.0  10.0  11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BEAR CR AT SHERIDAN CO
SHRC2               8.0  10.0  11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH PLATTE R AT DENVER CO
DNVC2              11.0  12.5  14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CLEAR CR AT GOLDEN CO 1WSW
GLDC2              10.0  13.0  14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CLEAR CR AT DERBY CO
DRBC2               9.0  10.5  11.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH PLATTE R AT HENDERSON CO
HNDC2              10.0  11.0  15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:N FK BIG THOMPSON R AT DRAKE CO
DKKC2               6.0   7.0   8.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CACHE LA POUDRE AT FT COLLINS CO 9NW
FTDC2               7.5   9.0  10.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CACHE LA POUDRE R AT FT COLLINS CO
POUC2              10.5  11.5  13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CACHE LA POUDRE AT GREELEY CO
GRPC2               8.0   9.5  11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH PLATTE R AT KERSEY CO
KERC2              10.0  11.5  12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH PLATTE R AT WELDONA CO 3SE
WNAC2              10.0  11.0  13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH PLATTE R AT BALZAC CO
BZNC2              10.0  11.0  13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH PLATTE R AT JULESBURG CO CH 2
JULC2              10.0  12.0  13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH PLATTE R AT ROSCOE NE 1SE
RSON1               9.0  11.0  13.0     5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH PLATTE R AT NORTH PLATTE NE NO.2
NPSN1              13.0  14.0  15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 0726 Z DH12 /DC1407220811/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 7/26/2014 - 10/24/2014

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:SOUTH PLATTE R
SPTC2       3.8/    3.9/    3.9/    4.0/    4.1/    4.4/    4.6

:PLUM CR
LOVC2       4.2/    4.2/    4.3/    4.5/    4.6/    4.9/    5.2

:BEAR CR
MRRC2       6.3/    6.3/    6.4/    6.5/    6.7/    6.9/    7.0
SHRC2       2.7/    2.8/    2.9/    3.0/    3.3/    3.7/    4.0

:SOUTH PLATTE R
DNVC2       4.1/    4.2/    4.4/    4.7/    5.5/    5.8/    6.4

:CLEAR CR
GLDC2       5.3/    5.3/    5.3/    5.3/    5.3/    5.4/    5.7
DRBC2       3.3/    3.4/    3.4/    3.5/    3.6/    3.7/    4.0

:SOUTH PLATTE R
HNDC2       5.5/    5.7/    6.0/    6.3/    7.0/    7.6/    7.8

:N FK BIG THOMPSON R
DKKC2       4.0/    4.0/    4.0/    4.0/    4.0/    4.2/    4.3

:CACHE LA POUDRE
FTDC2       3.7/    3.7/    3.7/    3.7/    3.7/    4.0/    4.5

:CACHE LA POUDRE R
POUC2       1.8/    1.8/    1.9/    2.3/    2.6/    3.8/    4.8

:CACHE LA POUDRE
GRPC2       2.2/    2.3/    2.4/    3.0/    4.0/    4.8/    6.1

:SOUTH PLATTE R
KERC2       3.4/    3.7/    4.2/    5.2/    5.9/    6.9/    8.5
WNAC2       3.0/    3.1/    3.6/    4.3/    5.1/    6.0/    7.3
BZNC2       4.1/    4.2/    4.6/    5.2/    6.2/    7.2/    8.7
JULC2       3.9/    4.1/    4.5/    5.6/    6.6/    7.3/    8.4
RSON1       3.6/    3.8/    4.1/    4.9/    5.9/    7.1/    9.1
NPSN1       6.0/    6.0/    6.0/    6.6/    8.0/    9.1/   10.5

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

.END

$$






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